6-point Teasers

Our methodology for playing 6-point teasers is similar to Blackjack expert Stanford Wong's strategy:

Tease the underdog when the line is +1½, +2, +2½, or +3;
Tease the favorite when the line is -7½, -8, -8½, or -9.

The reasoning behind this methodology is that games are frequently decided by a final margin of 3, 6, or 7. So we play teasers in such a manner that we gain these numbers in the teaser movement.
In my week 1 post, I did a mathematical dive into whether we should be playing games at exactly +3, whether home teams are more reliable than road teams, and whether the total of the game matters.

Sweetheart Teasers

10-point teasers are often called "sweetheart" teasers. I'm grateful to u/hyperkinesis247 for inquiring if there's an edge regarding sweethearts. After looking at a small sample size in 2017-2019, I've decided to track 10-point teasers according to the following methodology:

For 10-point teasers, tease the underdog when the line is +1½, +2, or +2½;
Do not take sweetheart teasers at +3;
Do not take sweetheart teasers on favorites.

Previous Results

The plays last week were:

Off-the-board spread	6 pt	10 pt
Chicago +3	Win
Denver +1½	Win	Win
Detroit +3	Win
San Francisco -8	Loss
Tampa Bay -7½	Win

I've been using the closing line at Bovada to determine which games qualify as Wong bets. For example, Carolina and Las Vegas both closed at +3 with many books and both covered. But they're not included in the list above because Bovada closed them at +3½. (You can verify the lines at sbrodds.com.)
I'm a Blackjack player. I didn't know the first thing about sports or sports betting when I started this tracking. In hindsight, I've learned that Bovada was a terrible choice. Nonetheless, Bovada was the choice and switching now seems statistically unethical.
Assuming a -120 payout for 2-team teasers, we must demonstrate better than 73.9% probability on each leg to show we have breakeven-or-better EV. For a -130 payout on 3-team sweethearts, that threshold is 82.7%. Including last week, the results since 2017 are listed below.

Teaser	Year	Team	Record
6 pt	2017	+1½ thru +3	61-23	72.6%
6 pt	2018	+1½ thru +3	63-19	76.8%
6 pt	2019	+1½ thru +3	52-16	76.5%
6 pt	2020	+1½ thru +3	16-2	88.9%
6 pt	2017	-7½ thru -9	27-10	73.0%
6 pt	2018	-7½ thru -9	16-9	64.0%
6 pt	2019	-7½ thru -9	17-7	70.8%
6 pt	2020	-7½ thru -9	7-2	77.9%
10 pt	2017	+1½ thru +2½	22-1	95.7%
10 pt	2018	+1½ thru +2½	24-5	82.8%
10 pt	2019	+1½ thru +2½	23-4	85.2%
10 pt	2020	+1½ thru +2½	5-0	100.0%

^{The chart above counts pushes as losses. You should strongly consider betting at a book that has a "pushes reduce" rule instead.}
The reason why my results only count the last three years (2017-2019) is because that's all the time I've had to look at so far. There's no real reason why I'm actively avoiding 2016. I'll be making an effort to look at the 2016 data soon.

Advice

Once upon a time, Wong's strategy was reliable. Bookmakers used to routinely pay -110 for teasers and games tended to be lower-scoring in the past.
But in 2020, the payouts are stingier and NFL offenses are stronger. It would be irresponsible to automatically assume Wong teasers are still a winning strategy today. This post is not a suggestion to bet. Merely, this is an experiment to see if this strategy is still favorable in today's environment.
Before last week, I expressed concern over the fact that our selections were 16-5-1 against the un-teased spread. This is good news if you had bet real money on these games in the past. However, it was a red flag in terms of sustainability moving forward. We have no reason to believe that our win percentage against the un-teased spread should be higher or lower than 50%.
Last week's results helped alleviate those concerns a little bit. The picks were 1-4 against the un-teased spread but still 4-1 in our teasers. It's a step in the right direction, but one week isn't enough of a sample size for me to consider flipping my advice.

This Week

As of the time of this post, the Bears number in today's game is all over the place depending on which book you look at. For my opinion on how I think this situation should be handled, see the Line Shopping section of my post last week. For the purposes of tracking the results, I remain steadfast in using Bovada's closing line.
As of now, the unofficial list of Wong teasers this week is:

Buffalo +1½
Arizona -7½
Los Angeles Rams -7½
New Orleans -8

My recommendation is to use the closing line whenever possible, but this is especially true for Buffalo. Changing the time of game doesn't usually cause any problems with your bets, but changing the day of game could create headaches. Without getting into the exact details of all of the possible scenarios, let me just succinctly say that betting the Bills game before you know the exact day of game could create controversy.
For the purposes of tracking, Bovada's final line according to sbrodds.com will be used except in cases where that number is obviously and egregiously wrong.

Teasing Totals

There's two ways that a teaser bet can win:

Method X: you can beat the regular un-teased number, or
Method Y: the game lands among the range of 6 points you gained via line movement ("teaser window").

We've talked about needing a 73.9% hit rate on our teaser legs. This means that if your probability of X is around 50%, then your probability of Y needs to be about 24%. This means that 24% of the results need to fit inside your teaser window.
You can't use teasers as a security blanket. You can't use them defensively. A lot of people treat teasers in the sense that, "I like this pick but let me just give myself a few extra points of wiggle room in case things go wrong." With this logic, it's very hard to get your Y probability up to 24%.
You need to intentionally seek out games that will land in the teaser window. You need to make a deliberate effort to win some games via Method Y. Here is a histogram of all of the final margins in 2017-2019. You can clearly identify the peaks at 3 and 7. (And the numbers in between 3 and 7 are all not-too-shabby either.) If you're intentionally trying to win via Method Y, you'd do well to put 3 and 7 in your teaser window.
Now look at this histogram of all of the final totals in 2017-2019. Where's the peak? What's the "sweet spot" that you want in your teaser window? How are you going to aggressively attack that option?
People have been claiming that they've been successfully teasing totals with their method. Something like "tease the Over when both teams have an 0-2 record" or other equivalent bullshit. I encourage those people to provide real statistics instead of anecdotes. How often are you winning via Method X and how often are you winning via Method Y? First of all, I'm not convinced it's a winning strategy. But even if it was, I can guarantee the long-run results are because X is really large and Y is still rather small. If your X is really large, just bet it straight.
On a normal parlay, two different selections each at -283 parlayed together pays you -120 for the whole ticket. Let's understand that's what a teaser is: it's a parlay with each leg at a -283 price. So if you're going from the straight -110 price (un-teased number) to the new -283 price (teased number), you better make sure that the 6 points you're getting are damn well worth it.
Those interested in teasing totals should look at your book's alternate lines to see what the true cost of 6 points is. (Hint: it's not even close to -283.)
I never said don't play totals. I never said don't play alternate totals. But teasing them is unequivocally wrong.

Trump's Election Day vaccine "miracle"

Welcome, dear readers, to my semi-regular coronavirus roundup.
Housekeeping:

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EDIT: TRUMP ADMITTED TO KNOWING DANGER OF COVID WEEKS BEFORE ACTING

Bob Woodward's new book reveals that Trump was aware that the coronavirus was dangerous and "more deadly than even your strenuous flus" even as he publicly downplayed the threat and failed to act to save lives. (article now updated with audio of Trump's interview)

"This is deadly stuff," Trump told Woodward on February 7.
In a series of interviews with Woodward, Trump revealed that he had a surprising level of detail about the threat of the virus earlier than previously known. "Pretty amazing," Trump told Woodward, adding that the coronavirus was maybe five times "more deadly" than the flu.

Trump also admitted to intentionally downplaying the threat:

"I wanted to always play it down," Trump told Woodward on March 19, even as he had declared a national emergency over the virus days earlier. "I still like playing it down, because I don't want to create a panic."

Election day vaccine

A group of nine leading pharmaceutical and biotechnology companies pledged on Tuesday to only seek approval for Covid-19 vaccines demonstrated to be safe and effective.
The pledge comes as Trump hypes the possibility of a vaccine before Election Day. His timeline has been pushed forward from “by the end of the year” to “before November 1st” and, most recently, “during the month of October.”
During his Labor Day press-briefing-turned-campaign-event, Trump said: "[It's] going to be done in a very short period of time -- could even have it during the month of October” (clip).
Trump went on to explicitly ties the vaccine to his re-election schedule: “We'll have the vaccine soon, maybe before a special date. You know what date I'm talking about” (clip).
Despite saying the quiet part out loud himself, the president tried to cast Joe Biden and Kamala Harris as the ones politicizing the vaccine process: “They’re going to make the vaccine into a negative… They’re saying ‘wow, Trump’s pulled this off, let’s disparage the vaccine.’ That’s so bad for this country, that’s so bad for the world to even say that and that’s what they’re saying” (clip). Unfortunately, many media outlets have portrayed the issue as a “both sides” argument.
Federal officials and health experts say Trump’s Election-oriented timeline is unlikely. NPR spoke with Moncef Slaoui, chief adviser for the administration's vaccine development program, who said he expects to have "enough vaccine to immunize the U.S. population by the middle of 2021.”
Case in point, development on the vaccine Trump was rumored to be betting on, the AstraZeneca-Oxford project, was put on hold due to a suspected serious adverse reaction in a participant.
But the point may not be to have a vaccine fully available to the public; Trump can simply claim the “deep state” is holding things up, blaming Biden/Harris for the pandemic under his watch. Furthermore, experts say there is no way our government and existing infrastructure will be ready to distribute, administer, and track doses by November. Health departments will also need an infusion of federal aid, a proposal that seems out of reach with a Republican-controlled Senate afraid to spend any more money during the pandemic.

...many health departments are so overwhelmed with the current costs of the pandemic — such as for testing and contact tracing — that they can’t reserve money for the vaccine work to come. Health departments will need to hire people to administer the vaccines and systems to track them, and pay for supplies such as protective medical masks, gowns and gloves, as well as warehouses and refrigerator space.

America alone

Meanwhile, the U.S. is backing down from the global fight against the pandemic, further enshrining Trump’s “America First” perspective into official policy. The Trump administration declined to join a global effort to develop, manufacture, and equitably distribute a coronavirus vaccine, in part because the World Health Organization is involved. U.S. allies including Japan, Germany, and the European Commission back the effort.

“The United States will continue to engage our international partners to ensure we defeat this virus, but we will not be constrained by multilateral organizations influenced by the corrupt World Health Organization and China,” said Judd Deere, a spokesman for the White House.

Further reading: The Trump administration said it won't pay more than $60 million in dues it owes to the World Health Organization.

The U.S. Agency for International Development, in charge of distributing global assistance related to the pandemic, is shutting down its only pandemic-focused task force. Other agency bureaus and divisions will take on its functions.

Sturgis comes home

South Dakota (+120%), Iowa (+81%), and North Dakota (+66%) have seen the largest 2-week increase in COVID-19 cases in the last two weeks, compared to the two weeks before.
These three states were also the “epicenter” of the Sturgis motorcycle rally last month. The event packed nearly 500,000 people into a small town in South Dakota, with rallygoers attending from - and returning to - all around the country. Photos and reports from Sturgis documented a startling lack of face masks and social distancing precautions.
According to a new study, over 250,000 coronavirus cases can be contributed to the rally. Assuming a cost of $46,000/case, the authors estimated the rally cost $12.2 billion. “This is enough to have paid each of the estimated 462,182 rally attendees $26,553.64 not to attend,” they write.
SD, IA, and ND do not have statewide face mask mandates. In fact, the Dakotas are two of just five states that do not allow local officials to require masks (the others are ID, MO, and OK). Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds has been told by the White House that the state’s outbreak is the steepest in the nation and urged officials to require mask-wearing statewide. Reynolds has yet to do so.

Alabama schools

Alabama has the fourth-most daily new cases per 100k people (after ND, SD, and IA) despite a statewide face mask order. The state has largely lifted all social distancing measures and has encouraged schools to reopen with in-person classes and sports. According to a NYT database, four-year universities in Alabama have over 4,000 coronavirus cases just weeks after opening.
The University of Alabama in Tuscaloosa accounts for over 1,300 of the cases. Professors at the school were reportedly told by the administration not to talk about the outbreak - not even to inform students if someone in their class tests positive. The mayor of Tuscaloosa let bars near the university reopen on Tuesday.

Further reading: Alabama is starting to see a payoff from its mask mandate, in place since mid-July. New covid cases have been cut in half over the past month and coronavirus patients admitted to hospitals fell to the lowest level since June.
Remember the news articles praising Trump’s new “tone” on masks? During Monday’s press conference, Trump tried to bully a reporter into taking off his face mask when asking a question (clip). The reporter, Jeff Mason of Reuters, refused. Apparently, this annoyed Trump so much that he was still griping about it on Twitter Tuesday (clip).

Trump pushes for sports

After weeks of haranguing schools to bring back sports, Trump has reportedly offered Big Ten football teams access to the national government’s reserve of rapid COVID-19 tests.

The new, cheaper […] tests could be the key that unlocks the door back to the Horseshoe and stadiums around the conference. And the White House might be willing to assist in that effort by potentially designating part of its supply to the Big Ten after buying 150 million rapid tests last week from Abbott Laboratories.

The president is so attached to the idea of college football resuming that he is pushing the Big Ten conference to go ahead without the participation of three schools, blaming the governors of Michigan, Illinois, and Maryland for the conference’s vote to cancel.

Mitch plays games

The Republican-controlled Senate is planning on voting on a scaled-down coronavirus relief package as early as this week. The “skinny” bill is unlikely to become law as Democrats feel it does not adequately address the magnitude of the crisis the nation is facing. McConnell is hoping a Senate vote on coronavirus aid - any aid - will help vulnerable Republicans up for re-election.

The Republican bill is expected to include a federal unemployment benefit, another round of Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) funding, and more money for coronavirus testing and schools, as well as liability protections from lawsuits related to the virus. McConnell didn't release a price tag for the forthcoming bill, but it is expected to be at least $500 billion — half of the $1 trillion package Republicans previously unveiled in late July.

One of the reasons - perhaps the main reason - for the breakdown of relief bill negotiations may be new White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows. Rep. Gerry Connolly (D-Va.), who served with Meadows on the Oversight Committee, told The Hill:

“Closing deals is not Mark Meadows’s strong suit. His whole track record is: blow it up… If you ask yourself what’s the difference between April and May, when we did reach big, broad bipartisan consensus, and today, the variable is Mark Meadows.”

Miscellaneous news

Lost in the Sauce was so long this week that I had to omit a couple of sections. I’ll include them here instead.
Immigration: Federal Judge Dolly Gee ordered DHS to cease using hotels as detention facilities for migrant children it seeks to expel from the border.

Gee said the use of hotels for detention purposes violates the Flores agreement because the locations lack sufficient oversight, state licenses to hold minors and standards for the care of young children. Minors have also faced a "woefully inadequate" process to seek the help of lawyers, who have been barred from entering the hotels, Gee added, citing declarations from attorneys who said they struggled to reach detained children.

Further reading: “Watchdog confirms botched family reunifications kept migrant children waiting in vans overnight,” NBC; “Trump nominee had role in removing prosecutor opposed to family separations,” Guardian

Immigration: The Trump administration has drafted a proposal that would dramatically expand the number of people required to provide biometrics for their immigration applications, while also increasing the personal information the government can demand, such as eye scans, voice prints, DNA, and photographs for facial recognition.
Immigration: The Border Patrol made a dramatized YouTube video depicting a Spanish-speaking attacker stabbing and killing a man in a dark alley after escaping from U.S. agents - “a clip apparently created to dramatize President Trump’s depiction of migrants as fearsome criminals.” The agency removed the video following backlash.
Environment: The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration opened an inquiry earlier this year into whether Trump political appointees illegally weakened rules meant to protect whales from oil industry seismic airgun blasting. Then, just as quietly, it halted the probe.
Environment: The Trump administration proposed a rule change that would make it easier to permit oil and gas drilling operations in national forests. The move comes as a watchdog report reveals the oil and gas industry has been allowed to pay far less than usual to the government for the right to drill on public lands under a controversial Trump administration coronavirus relief policy. Furthermore, the administration is seeking to fast track environmental reviews of dozens of major energy and infrastructure projects during the COVID-19 pandemic, including oil and gas drilling, hazardous fuel pipelines, wind farms, and highway projects in multiple states.
Environment: The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service issued a proposal that would allow the government to deny habitat protections for endangered animals and plants in areas that would see greater economic benefits from being developed — a change critics said could open lands to more energy development and other activities.
World: Secretary of State Mike Pompeo announced sanctions against two International Criminal Court officials -- the Trump administration's most aggressive move yet to try to deter an ICC investigation into possible war crimes by US military and intelligence officials.
World: How Donald Trump took down the Robert Mueller of Latin America: At the center of the story is an alleged quid pro quo between Donald Trump and Jimmy Morales, a former television comedian who was elected president of Guatemala.

NFL: Let's talk about teasers (Week 3)

[Manga] Welcome to the U19 Club: The Wonderful World of Shonen Jump Table of Contents Speculation

Off-the-board	6 pt	10 pt
Atlanta +3	Win
Los Angeles Rams +1½	Win	Win
Minnesota +3	Loss
Baltimore -7½	Win
San Francisco -7½	Win
Tampa Bay -7½	Win

Teaser leg win%	=	Beat regular spread	or	Margin lands on line movement
???	=	probability X	+	probability Y

If you’re a manga fan, you likely know about Weekly Shonen Jump - one of the most popular magazines in Japan, this weekly anthology of comics provided us such classics as Dragon Ball, Naruto, and One Piece. Indeed, because of the prestige of WSJ, many aspiring mangaka submit their creations to Jump, hoping they can hit it big.
However, while WSJ is popular, it is also one of the most cutthroat publications out there. Because of its size, it can usually only carry around 20 different series, excluding oneshots and the like. If your manga gets published in WSJ and doesn’t immediately become a hit, editors will cancel it as soon as possible to search for another hit instead.
Anyway, on places like manga, 4chan’s /a/ board, and Twitter, a sort of speculation started. You see, every issue of Jump has a table of contents page, which simply shows the location of each series in the issue as well as the weekly author comments. However, while the order changes from week to week, the general trend is that the most popular series are located near the front, where they’re more accessible to readers, while the less popular ones are in the back.
Of course, many editors and writers for Jump have noted that the head editor is the one who has the final say in the table of contents order, so they stress that it isn’t a barometer. However, one aspect of WSJ is that the print versions (probably digital versions too, though I haven’t checked) include a survey card in each issue - readers can submit which three chapters they enjoyed the most this week, alongside any sweepstakes offers or popularity polls. And there have been plenty of cases where a series ranks fairly high on the ToC and then suddenly drops to the bottom on chapter 8, which has led people to realize that it usually takes seven weeks to accurately tally survey results. So while it may not be 100% accurate, it allows people to speculate over which series are thriving and which are likely to be cancelled.
Case 1: The start of the U19 club
Of course, as mentioned above, the cutthroat nature of Jump means that low-performing books will be cancelled in about three to four volumes. However, at the time there was no real way to describe this phenomenon. That all changed in 2017.
See, at the time, WSJ was going through a massive series exodus. Popular series such as Bleach, Toriko, and Kochikame had all ended in 2016 (note: the latter had been running for 40 years), and Jump really needed something to prop up sales. To that end, they announced an unprecedented event where, for six weeks straight, they would add a new series in each issue. Usually, whenever series get serialized in Jump, they’re done in groups of two or three, so it was clear that WSJ was looking for at least some hits.
Enter U19, a series that made readers wonder how the hell it got approved in the first place. The premise is that adults have converted Japan into a 1984-like dystopia involving abusive discipline and selective breeding in order to strengthen the country and bring it back to its World War II-era glory. The main character finds out that his love interest has been deemed an elite student while he’s an F-rank, and when she is separated from him he develops a power called Libido, which manifests as a sewing needle that grows more powerful when he sees her. Then he is joined into the ranks of the U19 club, an underground resistance full of people under the age of 19 with similar Libidos.
The description I gave it in the previous paragraph does not do this series justice. The art was fairly amateur, the concept of Libidos were just quirks from My Hero Academia with a different name, the villains were written to be cartoonishly evil, and in general it didn’t seem like the author knew what they were doing. It quickly was cancelled after 17 chapters, but a edit of one of the spreads by a 2chan user, where the members of U19 were replaced by characters from other short-running series, eventually blossomed into a meme. From then on, the U19 club became the unofficial way to refer to any series doomed to end in less than 19 chapters. People who saw the TOC rankings would soon gravitate to the bottom of the list, speculating over which series were likely to join the club.
Case 2: The battle of the gag manga
Okay, when I mentioned the idea of the table of contents, there was one part I glossed over. While the lower-ranked series were almost doomed to fail, for a couple of years the last series to be featured in the ToC would usually be a small comedy series. The idea being that no matter how unsettling or uncomfortable the rest of the books are, at the very least the magazine will always end on a happy note. For the longest time, this position was filled by Isobe Isobee Monogatari, but then it ended in 2017.
So in a September 2018 issue, to the surprise of everyone, two gag series premiered in the same issue at the same time. The first, I’m From Japan, was about a young boy who is obsessed with the various prefectures of Japan and uses them in fighting styles. The second, Teenage Renaissance David, reimagined the Michelangelo sculpture as a hot-blooded high school student. It was clear that Jump was hedging its bets on a new gag series to be their mainstay, but the question was: which one?
There was obviously a regional gap for this issue. Japanese fans were more likely to enjoy I’m From Japan, simply because the various puns and in-jokes made more sense to them. Western fans found Teenage Renaissance David better, because the classical art references were more familiar. What compounded the issue even more is that every issue, the two series would switch places - one would be in the middle of the magazine, while the other would be near the bottom. Compounding this issue was the unbelievable fact that in December of the same year, I’m From Japan was confirmed to have an anime in development (for reference, most Shonen Jump manga only get an anime greenlighted after at least a year of serialization, while IFJ had only been around for a few months at best - meaning an anime was planned before the series even started).
While western fans were in disbelief, people soon came to the realization of why IFJ was promoted over David - tourism. The fact was that IFJ basically had every chapter talk about the top exports, notable attractions, and famous people of each Japanese prefecture - which made it perfect in terms of advertising people to go to those prefectures in question. Ultimately, Teenage Renaissance David ended after 35 chapters, while I’m From Japan was transferred to sister magazine Saikyo Jump... only to end after 45 chapters. In the end, nobody won, although the author of Isobe recently started a new serialization that may become the new gag series.
Case 3: Chew Harder - The Tale of Samurai 8
While most of the titles I’ve been talking about so far have been obscure, you most likely know about Naruto. The ninja manga was published in Jump in 1999, and author Masashi Kishimoto made it into a massive work spanning over 70 volumes and 15 years. It’s arguably one of the most popular series to have ever ran in Jump.
So it was surprising to hear that after Naruto ended, Kishimoto noted that he actually had plans for a new series. In late 2018, more information came out - his new publication would be called Samurai 8: The Tale of Hachimaru, and it would be a science fiction title centered around cybernetic samurai. Notably, due to wanting a break from drawing, he would only write the series while one of his former assistants, Akira Obuko, would be doing the art.
Considering that such a famous author would be writing another series, Jump immediately went to advertising S8 however it could. Animated YouTube ads done months before the series actually started, expansive murals in subways, even putting pamphlets of the first chapter in other Jump manga. While it had done some promotional acts for other manga before, it was on a completely different level with Samurai 8. In essence, they were setting it up to be one of the core pillars of Jump before it even started.
And then the series actually started. While some people were optimistic, others noted that it wasn’t exactly a good start for the series. From the first chapter alone, the reader is bombarded with samurai lore that would honestly be better suited for explanation across chapters rather than in a massive exposition dump. The plot also became more complex - while the first chapter of Naruto framed the conflict as a plucky young ninja possessed by a demonic nine-tailed fox wanting to become the head of his village, the first chapter of Sam8 framed the conflict as a sickly young boy who wants to become a samurai, only to suddenly get a cybernetic body after committing seppuku and then he is told by a blind samurai master in a cat’s body that he must find the seven keys to Pandora’s Box, an artifact that could endanger the whole galaxy. The artstyle used to portray cybernetics made pages look cluttered, which made fight scenes difficult to understand.
In essence, while Samurai 8 had the prestige of being written by the author of Naruto, everything else seemed to be changed - not necessarily for the better. Compounding this were two separate facts. The first is that when the first and second volumes of the series were released simultaneously (another marketing stunt to encourage binge reading), Kishimoto wrote in the first volume that he would compare reading Samurai 8 to chewing dried squid - if the flavor doesn’t come out, just chew some more (i.e. buy the second volume, I swear things will get better I promise). The second was an interview with one of the former editors of Naruto, which revealed that many of the most popular parts of Naruto were editor suggestions rather than Kishimoto’s own work. Compounding this was an interview with the Samurai 8 editor, who seemed to revere Kishimoto; this made fans believe that he wasn’t policing Kishimoto’s work as much, similar to how George Lucas made the original Star Wars trilogy with the help of various editor suggestions and then the prequel trilogy with virtually no supervision.
The effects were noticeable. In 4chan, it became a meme to refer to Kishimoto’s chewing comment whenever Samurai 8 was discussed. TOC-wise, it dropped in the rankings until it was almost always near the bottom. Sales were night and day compared to Naruto, and ultimately, after the constant promotions over other WSJ series, Samurai 8 ended after five volumes and 45 chapters. Which seems okay enough until you realize that I’m From Japan, of all series, was compiled into six volumes.
Case 4: Time Plagiarism Ghostwriter
In May 2020, the same issue when one of Jump’s more popular series Demon Slayer ended, a new series called Time Paradox Ghostwriter started.
The premise of it went like this: An amateur author whose manga has been rejected by publishers constantly gets his microwave struck by a bolt of lightning, which turns it into a time machine. When he opens it up, he sees that it contains a copy of Weekly Shonen Jump from ten years in the future. Upon seeing that its premiere series, White Knight, is the perfect manga, but believing it to be a dream, he copies the first chapter the following day and sends it to his editor, who immediately greenlights it as a series. Suddenly the amateur author must contend with the high expectations pushed onto him - as well as the original author of White Knight, who is surprised that someone else has used her idea.
Maybe it was because of the premise alone. Maybe it was because it was one of the few Jump manga out there which didn’t fall into the typical conventions of being a battle, sports, or gag manga. Either way, TPGW immediately became popular in the west, with many people talking about how they love it. Many were immediately convinced that TPGW could immediately become a top seller for Japan. So, seven weeks after the first chapter, people were eager to see the first ratings for the series - only for it to debut in the bottom half of the magazine and drop lower every issue afterward.
People were surprised, to say the least. Why was a series with such an amazing premise flopping? Pretty soon, people came to a conclusion as to why this was happening: plagiarism. More specifically, in a magazine primarily aimed at young boys, the first few chapters tried to justify the main character plagiarizing White Knight and still paint him as a good guy, by having people constantly tell him that so many people are in love with WK and it would be a disservice to stop now. Even the original author, after meeting the main character, writes off the similar plot between his White Knight and hers as a fluke. And given how the Kyoto Animation Fire, one of the worst mass murders in Japan’s modern history, was caused because someone thought KyoAni had stolen their idea, it makes sense that people would be hesitant to like a series which pushes all of its consequences to the side.
So anyway, the first volume of TPGW was released, compiling all the magazine chapters while removing any reference to plagiarism in the text itself. Even then, it sold terribly. The author quickly tried to pick up the pace of their manga, glazing over plot points and moving the story at a breakneck pace, but it was too little too late. The series ended in only 15 chapters - unusual for Jump, as even more recent U19 series have gotten more time before getting axed. People were upset, claiming that Japan just didn’t have as good of a taste as the west and being upset that the previously-mentioned gag manga by Isobe’s author was immediately started the week after. So yeah, people were upset.
Anyway, that’s the long and short of some notable instances of Jump drama. I could add in some more stuff, like the quick cancelling of Act-Age or the drama surrounding mangaka like Kentaro Yabuki and Haruto Ikezawa, but I’ve written enough as is.

A realistic look at Fred and George's bet with Ludo Bagman and what they might win.

Rolan Garros Men's Singles Round 1 Matchup featuring jaguars & potatos

Another tournament another app to download. Goot-bye US Open app. Another week of typing F into google chrome before realizing the site starts with an R. The French are classy. But who was Roland Garros? Was he, a fictitious dragon who ruled over the Alps and the Bay of Biscay and all that lay in between? Or was he a French aviator and pilot during World War I? Over the next two weeks, we’ll get to the bottom of this. I know which way I’m leaning.
PS that is Querrey in the photo if you're on mobile, not me
Djokovic Ymer : Novak’s biggest win at the French Open is having Thiem and Nadal on the opposite side of the draw. A healthy reward for the #1 player in the world, and one that will mean a very wide open draw and a very enjoyable snackathon while he watches the other semifinal. Novak, or Snack Attack as he’s known to his close friends and family, will be hungies for this one after a very odd day of frustration against Carreño Busta at the US Open led to a disqualification. Novak won the Rome event with relative ease and is as close to a frontrunner as someone other than Nadal can be at this event.
Ymer has been steadily improving but is still at the top of the challenger level when it comes to clay. This won’t be close, but it’s good to see Ymer stringing together a few seasons of appearances in the majors. Djokovic in 3.
Berankas Dellien : Ricardas Berankas may be closer than he appears. After a good hardcourt mini-swing, Berankas has been absent from the clay warmups. He’s never really been the best on clay although he plays a solid baseline game, and this mostly because while he’s consistent, he struggles to hit through the court on slower surfaces. Dellien on the other hand, does his best work on clay. He’s been losing matches you’d expect him to have a better chance in and hasn’t had many bright points leading up to the break. With Djokovic in the next round and Berankis on his worst surface with minimal warmup, this is a must-win for Dellien. He’s struggled to find the finish line but he’ll have ample chances here, and his defending is similar to Munar’s in terms of lockdown baselining Dellien in 4 or he is likely headed off the tour.
Galan Norrie : This is a brilliant opportunity for Daniel. He’s been hinting at a big run on clay and overcoming a lot of the gatekeepers of the challenger tour, but a lot of third set losses have plagued him, and while it’s considered a short stretch of tour, the clay events are deep with talent. Norrie has ventured to the South American swing once or twice, with relatively poor results. He can be a frustrating opponents at his peak, but his backhand doesn’t get through the court well and he’s just a bit inconsistent with results. He’ll still be a favorite here because playing in the spotlight in a major is something that takes time to adjust to, but Galan will make it close and could eke out a win since he’s still a developing player. Galan in 5.
Sandgren Hurkacz : Sandgren hasn’t had a terrible time on the dirt this year, qualifying for events the last two weeks and unfortunately running into guys who are simply better than him. Almost beating Caruso is a great step, and a year ago that would make him a bit of a favorite to beat Hurkacz. Those of us who watched his matches with Rublev and Schwartzman saw a different Hurkacz from the inconsistent but promising server that’s been exhausting bettors while losing after winning the first set time and time again. Hurkacz was hitting very clean and generating winners relatively easily, and while his serve left him late against Diego, playing a returner like that in a long match will do that to you.
Sandgren and Hurkacz will both be hitting a heavy ball here and looking to hold behind big serves, but one of them has had higher level success in the past few weeks, and I think Hubert, or “Hubert”, as he’s known down at the ‘ol library, has the better serve and bigger groundstrokes. Hurkacz in 3-4, and please when you look at Hurkacz picture him wearing glasses and looking up from his wooden table anytime someone coughs across the room.
Garin Kohlschreiber : This is a good start for Garin, whose physical state is somewhat dependent on Tsitspas. A finals appearance on Saturday will make for a tough turnaround, but I don’t think he’ll withdraw from a major, and given Kohl’s loss to a super-hampered Fognini last week a little bit of fatigue won’t be too much of an issue. That being said, Garin’s game is largely dependent on physical effort and being a ball machine. I would say it’s split 95% that, and 5% having elegant hair. Kohlschreiber won’t just disappear and if Garin is a ghost of himself, he’ll lose, but that’ll be a big dip in level in a short period of time, and the fatigue I expect to hurt Garin’s run at the French is more of a 3rd-4th round type of struggle. Garin in 4.
Humbert Polmans : Polmans name backwards is Snamlop, and that’s important because it’s now the second thing you know about his clay game. Polmans wears a hunting cap and plays a very energetic and consistent game. In normal circumstances he’d have a puncher’s chance, and the lucky losers in tour events are classic for pulling a number of upsets (like Bublik this week) but this is not the spot. Humbert played great in Hamburg and lost early enough that he’ll have a few days to travel and get ready for RG. Humbert in 3.
Vesely Broady : These two will be very happy to play each other first round. Vesely has only just started to eke out wins on this clay swing and Broady has just qualified for the first time, beating Polmans and Kuhn along the way. These aren’t the type of wins that suggest he’ll beat Vesely, but Vesely’s struggles are the kind of thing that could see lower-tier players reel him in. I expect Broady’s timing to be a bit better than Vesely’s to start as he’s had a few matches on these courts, but Vesely really is a tour level player at the end of the day, so I believe both players will have some difficulty pulling away here. Someone in 5. The Vesely that lost to Vukic in a challenger loses. The Vesely that played a decent match against Humbert wins.
Majchrzak Khachanov : If you got into a car accident with a basket full of the alphabet, you miiiiiiiiight get this combination of letters. Kamil just won a challenger in Prostejov, beating some quality players and Andujar in the finals. Everyone who knows Andujar knows he was raised with jaguars, and wins two titles in a row every year then disappears. Majchrzak interrupting this is a very brave feat, but also one that means this isn’t the one-way traffic that a Khachanov Majchrzak match normal would be. The problem for Kamil has been distancing himself against mid-tier opponents, and that is exactly what Khachanov big hitting and aggressive serving have done. Karen struggled against Lajovic last week, but that’s a puzzle he hasn’t solved yet, and likely won’t impact his performance here. He’s got a better shot at excelling in the big moments, and outlasting Kamil’s steady play. Khachanov in 4-5.
Baustista Agut Gasquet : This is a sleeper of a great match. The way Gasquet moves around the court in between points is deceptive given how well he covers the court, and his game looks a bit more devoted to flair than it is to hitting winners. Still, his results over the past decade have been brilliant and his serving is sneaky good at times. Zero warmup matches leading into this is the polar opposite of RBA’s commitment to getting in hard yards on the surface, and that’ll be a big edge for RBA. Not his best surface (I’ll stop harping on this eventually), but RBA is playing some good ball and Gasquet is half a question mark heading into this week. Playing at home and not sporting any visual injury means Gasquet won’t just disappear, but I think rust will be a factor. RBA in 4-5.
Uchiyama Balasz : Uchiyama is most famous for being the inspiration for that Nas song, but his second claim to fame is being a helluva tennis player. Many bettors had genuine panic attacks in his first round loss to PCB in last month’s US Open, and having that fresh in their minds could lead them astray here. Attila Balasz is one of the pure clay specialists on tour, and plays a very unique style of tennis. Tons of dropshots, a strangely effective but flailing backhand, and an affinity for hitting forehand winners from 10 feet behind the baseline are on display from him, as well as one of the best kick serves you’ll see. Given Uchiyama got the business from Duckworth last week, this should be a W for Balasz, who can trouble the winner of RBA/Gasquet but likely can’t win. Balasz in 3.
Pella Caruso : Pella has allegedly been diagnosed with Morton’s neuroma, which is an inflamed nerve in the metatarsal region of the foot. I’ve dealt with nerve issues in the metatarsals after breaking a toe recently, and it is the strangest thing. It’s nonstop pain, even when you’re sitting down, but you can still train. Your foot feels like it’s on fire, but you can still walk and you know nothing is wrong. I’m not sure what treatment he’s getting for it, but the stop and start aspect of tennis is going to really preclude him from doing much on tour while this is an issue, and I believe that’s what is leading to his subpar results since the restart.
Caruso on the other hand has become a household name lately, and although he’s done better on hardcourt than clay in the restart, this is a winnable match for him. I’m just not sold on Pella’s physical ability, and Caruso has the power to break down what is normally a rock-solid defense. Caruso in 3. Disclaimer : There’s a big tendency amongst gamblers to jump on lines because they think they have some injury info. Just keep in mind, the information the general public has is always less than what the books have. If anything, a question mark about an injury is a good reason to avoid betting on a match at all.
Millman Carreño Busta : For a while I thought Millman had a knack for drawing guys he’d have a real war with, but it’s just his style. He doesn’t serve aces but he has a decent serve. He doesn’t hit winners but he swings for the fences on the forehand. He doesn’t have much of a backhand but he puts it in play in decent spots. It’s just very difficult for Millman to overwhelm anyone, and very difficult for players to create offense against what he offers. PCB didn’t look great against Nadal, but two weeks of rest will have him in good shape to compete here. I do expect him to make a decent run at this event, and this is a good test to see where his game is at after a huge payday in the USO. PCB is a professional, but I don’t put it past him to struggle to find form/motivation for a while. PCB in 4-5.
Struff Tiafoe : This is the first line I’ll mention. Tiafoe comes in at +170 for this match, which is much closer than I’d set it. Tiafoe isn’t really a productive player on clay, and lost to local hero Musetti in a challenger last week. Struff blew up with a big lead in the third against Khachanov, and lost quickly in Rome as well, but he’s had some great clay results, and I expect him to come through very well here. The Tiafoe we saw at the USO may be a repeat appearance, but this would be the best win of his career on the dirt, so the line (especially after his loss to Musetti) makes me wary. Struff in 4.
Altmaier Lopez : Altmeir is a challenger level player with a big claycourt game. He plays pretty exclusively on the dirt, and while Lopez is a great server, he may take an L here. Altmaier came through qualifying fairly easily, and Lopez is a wildcard for his effort level and service efficiency, but I’d rather back a qualifier in-form than a maybe of an offensive veteran on a slow surface. Altmaier in 4.
Harris Popyrin : This is a nice matchup, as both of these guys wouldn’t be expect to make the 2nd round at RG very often. I’ve been big on Popyrin’s game in the past, but Harris has had the better win in recent times on clay, beating Caruso in two straight. This will largely be decided by serves, and in the interest of honesty, I haven’t watched many of their recent matches. Popyrin was better for a time, but that seems to have flipped. Someone with their hat backwards in 4.
Pospisil Berretini : Oddsmakers have set the games total for this at 32, which given Pospisil’s serve is a bit low. Vasek is by no means a great clay player, and Berretini is going to make quick work of this, but I do think Pospisil will keep him on court for at least two hours. Berretini in 3.
Medvedev Fucsovics : Spooky line for this one, with Medvedev (who regularly comes in at -1000 against solid opponents) only a 4 to 1 favorite here. Fucsovics hasn’t played any clay warmups and although Med lost to Humbert it was a side event and Humbert played lights out tennis. I guess the premise we’re going with here is that Medvedev’s style isn’t great on clay, but I think he’ll have a good event here as he was a bit more impatient than usual against Humbert. Medvedev in 4.
Mannarino Ramos-Vinolas : If you like lefties who’ve been on tour forever and never change their game, this is the match for you. Local robot ARV has had a disappointing start to his clay season, courtesy of an unexplainably good Bublik. He’s the type of player who generally needs a bit more time to work the point, and doesn’t go for clean winners very often. A bit like a more defensive version of Delbonis, ARV will have a good chance here to get a win. Mannarino has potential to make this close because ARV hasn’t been winning and that mental state is sometimes a difficult hurdle. He’ll also be playing at home which has historically been a huge boost for French players. It’ll depend largely on the condition of ARV’s game, but it will be difficult given Mannarino’s controlled game and ARV’s defense for either player to pull away. ARV in 5.
Halys Giron : These guys just aren’t that good, but they’re in a great section of the draw. Halys has been hanging around the challenger tour, but hasn’t made a great deal of impact. Giron has had a more impressive stretch of wins on tour, but none of them have come on clay. The crowd will help Halys, and I think he’s a bit more comfortable on clay, but Giron is the better player at the end of the day. Not a lot to separate these two. Giron in 5.
Querrey Rublev : I don’t want you to get the wrong idea about Querrey. It’s easy to say he’s washed up or he doesn’t care or he’s only good on grass and fast hardcourt. What’s difficult to do though is to remember that he did this : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W4ICHm96chw&ab_channel=TennisWizard
That is all. Rublev might be coming off a title win, and the courts will be slower, but Querrey’s work on this planet is already complete. Rublev in 4. PS an anonymous source has recently informed me that Rublev’s house in Russia is actually structured like a hamster emporium and he wears a cape and refers to himself only as Tubelev. Vetting my source now.
Monteiro Basilashvili : Monteiro is somewhere fancy winning a challenger as we speak. I love this guy’s work ethic and he plays like he’s Nadal’s wild cousin who mountain climbs and just plays tennis when he’s in town. The forehand is big and he’s going against a guy who hasn’t notched a win since he came back to the tour. Commenting on legal issues isn’t great, but Basilashvili is facing some domestic assault charges back in his home country and there’s some notion that this is not great for his mental state. If they were both at their peak Nikoloz wins, but he’s in the doldrums and Monteiro is winning tons of matches. Monteiro in 3.
Lajovic Mager : Another tough draw for Mager. After getting a motivated Dimitrov he goes up against Lajovic who found his chops last week in a major way in Hamburg. Mager can absolutely crush the ball but he needs some times to find these shots, and Lajovic moves his opponents exceptionally well. A few missed opportunities against Tsitsipas have afforded Lajovic a few days of rest, and he should be good to roll through this one. Lajovic in 3-4.
Djere Anderson : This one of my favorite matchups in the first round. Djere is a great claycourter and plays harder than most when he gets in a rhythm, but he’s been struggling to win matches lately. Anderson’s return from injury has been similar to Nishikori’s as far as results, but not style. Nishikori has struggled to keep the ball in the court. Anderson seems to be able to play his normal game in stretches, but is hesitant to do so. It’s like watching a baby deer test it’s legs out. In a 2/3 format I think Anderson might sprint away, but here I like Djere to make this match physical and beat Anderson, who’ll be happy to go into the indoor season where things are a bit easier on the ol deer bits. Djere in 4-5.
Mayot Davidovich Fokina : Mayot is not the worst, but he’s not the best. Rublev vs Fokina is probably the best 2nd round we’re going to see in this event, and barring injury we’ll get a look at it. Fokina’s loss against Lajovic looked bad since Dusan was slumping, but looking at his form the next few rounds it makes sense. It’s like playing Paire on a day where he makes no errors and serves 16 aces. You come off the court like wait, where’s christmas? ADF in 3.
Shapovalov Simon : Shap had some clay wins that he hasn’t in the past. It’s nice to see the slower surface giving him time to really craft some winners. There aren’t many holes in his game, and he seems to only struggle once opponents settle onto his patterns since he tries to hit through the court on so many shots. When you see the guy shifting to where you’re going there’s a tendency to try to add some juice. Simon’s physical struggles aren’t public, but there’s something off about him. Age/fatigue/injury. I don’t know. The backhand is still beautiful and he’s still a great player, but he just can’t win lately, and this is the wrong opponent to be moving poorly against. Shap in 3. PS if you haven’t seen Shap’s rap video yet don’t see it. It’s not to be seen, like a rare butterfly or a peanut butter jelly sandwich your child hid in their closet for some reason 4 years ago.
Johnson Carballes Baena : Another match I feel good about. RCB is the RBA of ARV. His ability to push the pace without really hitting for winners is a quality the best claycourters all possess. Johnson can play some clay, but usually only in the USA event that consists of hardcourt players playing each other. This will be somewhat close as Johnson is decent on serve and RCB retired from his last match. The appeal of a big check at a major is such that people will make the trip even if they’re not at their best, and this one is RCB’s if he’s healthy, but Johnson’s if he isn’t. No way to pick, but I’m pulling for RCB, as he’ll be the better round 2 against Shap.
Martin Sousa : The hits keep coming. Sousa simply can’t win a match. He doesn’t seem to be playing terribly, just dealing with a huge slump. Martin will know how that feels, as he’s been taking first round losses when he finally makes his way into main tour events for a while. That changed at the start of this year though, and Martin has been a difficult out on clay in recent months. That likely will give him an edge here, and the confidence being based in results rather than in coaches puffery is likely to keep him pushing where Sousa will have doubts creeping in. Martin in 5.
Barrere Dimitrov : Barrere looked like he’d be making a big impact on tour this year before the break. There are some winners and some losers in any sporting revolution, and halting his progress seems to put him in the loser category. Draws are important, and while the solid hitter could have a chance against the new Kanye, this seems to be the old Kanye. Dimitrov tried exceptionally hard to beat Shapovalov in their Rome test, and it was good to see him playing well against even if the overarching idea is that the pinnacle of the tour has kinda passed him by. Dimitrov in 4-5.
Krajinovic Milojevic : Tough pull for Milojevic, who plays excellent dirt and worked very hard to qualify, notching wins against Leo Mayer and Yannick Maden. Kraj is pretty solid on clay and playing his best tennis the past few weeks. He’ll have to work hard to put Milojevic away, but he should do so. Krajinovic in 4.
Bedene Rinderknech : Strasbourg is in France, and Rinderknech is French. I like it. The 25 year old has been doing excellent recently on clay, and it’s nice to see him get a wildcard. Bedene isn’t the type of player who’s unbeatable, and Rinder’s win against Marc-Andrea Huesler (who should be in this event) shows he’s able to compete at tour level. The “home crowd” issue is probably getting annoying to read about now, but there’s some real comfort zone issues with the French players that lets them play comfortably there. Bedene is still a step above, but this could be close. Bedene in 5.
Laaksonen Cuevas : Henri never blinked in the qualifying, and this is a guy who does way more with way less. He trains his fitness at least as hard as anyone on tour, and while his game is pretty one-dimensional, he gets a lot out of it. He reminds me a bit of a local club champion who plays a tour pro and doesn’t just fold up and hope for their adulation. The serve is big and that’s the main weapon, and he’ll need it against Cuevas. Cuevas doesn’t give up much in the way of rallies and uses his variety to expose his opponents. Laaksonen won’t get tired, but he will have difficult ending baseline rallies, and his somewhat predictable approach is something that Cuevas is well suited to defend against. Cuevas in 4.
Munar Tsitsipas : This is a sleeper for an upset, especially with Tsitsipas playing for a title tomorrow. Munar hasn’t shown the type of world-beating dominance I expected him to on clay, because frankly he is a bit small for the tour, but he has a Nadal-level (RIP my inbox) effort on the court. He is rock-solid from the baseline and has a great attitude. Some injuries have hampered his development but even with Tsitsipas playing his best tennis this won’t be a walkover. The huge edge in serving for Tsitsipas means it’ll be tough for Munar to really apply pressure, but I think it’ll be a similar affair as his match with Garin where he seems in control until he begins making errors. Tsitsipas is still prone to shanking random rally balls and returning poorly. After talking up Munar’s chances I still think Tsitsipas may win in straight sets, but it’s one of those matches where I’d never give the spread. Tsitsipas in 3 difficult sets. PS Munar, or Lil Buttons as he’s known in the tennis rap community, buttons all the buttons on his shirt and that’s cute.
Monfils Bublik : Tough draw for both. Monfils has looked half motivated, as if he wants to play but can’t bring himself to until the pressure’s off or it would be an amazing comeback. It’s time to stop looking at these moments as a slump as this is pretty much how he has spent his whole career. When conditions are perfect, he thrives. These are outliers though, not his real level. Bublik won a bunch of sets of tennis this past week and had his chances against Garin. My initial thought looking at this match was that the games total of 35 seemed low. Bublik is likely to hold serve moderately well, and Monfils is likely to get drawn into the skill contest that Bublik represents with his dropshots/serve and volleys/underhand serves. I think this has potential to be the most entertaining match, and while Bublik is looking very good, Monfils has a lot of time here to play himself into a mental state where he can fight. Monfils in 5.
Gomez Sonego : Gomez and Sonego will both like their chances here. Sonego’s been losing, but to quality opponents like FAA and Ruud. Gomez qualified and got a nice article written about him, but his game has been legit and he’s been right around tour level for 2-3 seasons now. Gomez actually beat Seyboth Wild in the qualifiers, which is a huge win. Sonego really hasn’t won many matches, and that’ll be in his head a bit against a qualifier who is hungry to prove himself. Gomez in 5.
Thompson Albot : Our boy Radu hasn’t really been winning much since the tour’s return, which I think puts an asterisk next to the entire sport. It’s bad form for Radu not to get wins, and I believe that’s what Pospisil’s union is mainly focused on. Thompson was awfully disappointing against Coric in the USO, and is pretty bad on clay, but this again is a nice section of the draw with Fritz waiting in round two (I say that now but by the next paragraph I’ll convince myself he’s going to lose). Thompson in 4.
Machac Fritz : Is it legal to cheer? Machac’s recent results don’t say he can beat a player like Fritz, but he has beaten some players who can beat some players who can beat a player like Fritz. Fritz did well against Travaglia, and likely has the edge here. Some home-cooking for the 19 year old will be a factor if he manages to grab a set, but he’ll have to get there on his own and Fritz’ hitting may be a big factor in this one. Fritz in 3-4 but I’ll be crossin my fingas.
Coric Gombos : I see some people on twitter disrespecting my man Gombos. I’m lying, I don’t go near twitter, and only made an account so I can post a portrait of myself. You can view it here :
https://twitter.com/blurryturtle/header_photo
Gombos probably can’t win this, but he is the Gombosiest. Coric in fouric.
Rodionov Chardy : Is Chardy really tryna play tennis anymore? It seems like he’d have been making a retirement announcement this year but the pandemic ruined it. Rodionov did great in the qualifiers and winning is a habit. Chardy has the skill and serving to outclass Rodionov but he just hasn’t been doing the work lately. The upset is somewhat likely in my mind. Rodionov in 4-5.
Moutet Giustino : Local rapgod Corentin Moutet is a tiny little nugget of a player, who plays a big big game. Both have been winning matches lately, and this will be a tight contest. If this gets deep, I like Moutet as his experience winning 5-set matches is a big factor and his game is better after some miles are on both opponents since he thrives on his speed but plays a bit too far behind the baseline. Giustino in 4 or Moutet in 5.
Kecmanovic Schwartzman : We all know Kecmanovic is a great baseliner. He’s one of the tours more competent pushers, but Diego is just a better version of him. Diego was at his best in Rome, and I expect a good run here. Schwartzman in fourtzman.
I feel like there are more matches than usual. Also always nice when they don’t release the qualifier matchups until the day before the tournament. Thus ends my gripes.
Wawrinka Murray : Is it okay if I think they’ll both lose? Wawrinka played one of the funnier challenger events, losing the first set in almost every single round then winning the match and the title. Murray has hinted at the old Murray at times, but fans have grown a bit sadpants when watching him struggle with mid-level tour players. Murray hasn’t played, and Wawrinka looks like he hasn’t wanted to. The edge here goes to Wawrinka, but I expect a great contest as Murray has no quit in him and Stan has shown a prolific ability to find struggle where there is none. Wawrinka in 5.
Koepfer Hoang : Tough wildcard draw for Hoang, though a year ago he’d have been ecstatic. Hoang’s been winning locally, and I wouldn’t sleep on him here. He has a great serve, a big backhand, and is still developing. Home court advantage adds another wrinkle, but Koepfer will likely be physically recovered from his runs in Rome/Hamburg, and he really showed he can elevate his game and cover the court remarkably during that period. Koepfer in 4, and hopefully he’ll be the wakeup call Wawrinka needs in round 2.
Gaston Janvier : Two wildcards playing each other. Good for them. Probably Gaston in 4 (he has the much cooler name/hits a bit bigger)
Nishioka Auger-Alliassime : This one is interesting given FAA’s struggle to find his serving last week. Squishioka can be very frustrating in rallies, but he just hasn’t been able to win matches on clay. Clay is more of a big hitters surface, even though it’s slow. The work ethic is there, but not the offense. A disaster of a day for FAA if he loses this one; I don’t rule it out but it’s unlikely, and Bublik was in great form which explains half the loss. FAA in 3-4.
Ruud Sugita : Ruud has been excellent for years, and now he is looking like a real threat against anyone outside the top ten, and a big hurdle for those inside it. Sugita is a nice guy, but Ruud in 3.
Paul Duckworth : Tommy Paul’s best surface is clay? He really has shown an ability to perform and Duckworth just enjoyed a zipping in his last outing. One way trafffic, and Paul/Ruud in the second round is a great matchup. Paul in 3.
Opelka Sock : Say no to Jack Sock. It is addictive when this half boy/half potato starts winning matches. I think it continues here. Opelka has played no warmups, and moving on clay for such a tall fellow is really tough. He’ll have a tough time hanging with Sock’s pace, and the easier opponent (defensively) is likely to make Sock really focus on hitting to the open court. Sock in 4.
Honestly you’d tell me if there’s extra matches right? I feel like some guys are playing twice.
Cilic Thiem : Cilic is going to be sick of Thiem by the end of this one, but as a fan this is the perfect early round for Thiem. After playing no warmup matches the concern is rust, and so I’m excited to see Thiem have a match where he has to work right away. Typing that makes me a bit scared, as Cilic has played some ok tennis in the warmup, beating Goffin 2, 2. Still, this sub’s affinity for Thiem’s tumbly bum won’t let him lose in the first round, and as he gets going I think we’ll see him kinda shape into a threat for the title. Thiem in 4.
Zverev Novak : Novak isn’t great on clay. Trouble is, neither is Zverev. After a major finals, I don’t picture a guy like Zverev coming in with a smaller ego. I think there will be some harrowing moments in this, and if Herbert plays well in round one I like him to take at least two sets off Zverev. Zverev in 4-5, and I’m interested to see if he’s on the “slow start gradual turnup” path again, as that’s a terrible plan on clay for a guy who’s prone to frustration.
Mmoh Herbert : Mmoh did well to qualify, besting Renzo Olivo. Add in that Hyeon Chung was in their draw, and you really have a lack of offense in that section. Herbert has been bad recently, losing to a number of players he’d normally beat. His game depends largely on his serving, and while he’s one of the best players at net outside the big 3 (I’d put him first/Sock second) he needs to get there to be effective. Mmoh is a defensive test, but Herbert likely won’t want to get dragged into extended rallies, so this will look a bit like a low-rent version of Garin vs Bublik. I think Herbert at home gets the job done, but it may take some patches of trial and error to crack Mmoh’s defense. Herbert in 4-5.
Delbonis Londero : I was initially excited to back Londero a bunch after his USO run, as I know his best surface is clay. This is his second match against his countryman though, and it is a poor matchup for him as Delbonis has been playing decent. Delbonis his big and segments the game nicely, so the pace of the ball is fast, but the progression of rallies is slow. I don’t expect Londero to lose in straight sets, but it’s hard to back him after losing to Delbonis a few weeks ago. Delbonis in 4-5, but for betting porpoises I’d recommend avoiding this altogether.
Cecchinato De Minaur : Hehe. Finally stringing wins together, Cecchinato’s reward is a maindraw against a guy who is a nightmare matchup. Cecchinato plays a classic claycourt game. Big power and deft dropshots. He needs time to produce the first of those, and De Minaur takes that away. The dropshots are cute, but De Minaur covers the net better than most on tour. He lost to Koepfer in his only warmup on clay, and Cecchinato has won a bunch of matches recently, but this is a fairly even matchup. Both are excellent frontrunners, and I think the first few sets will be very competitive. Hard to pick against De Minaur in a long contest early in the event, and Cecchinato’s defense will likely be an issue if ADM is serving well. De Minaur in 4.
Paire Kwon : Paire still avoiding multiple matches, which is an excellent strategy for his longevity as a pro athlete. He basically could lose to anyone at this point, and his retirement in Hamburg appeared to be “I’m tired”. This is a bad sign, and worse still, Kwon is not a player who’ll beat him quick or represent a dominant opponent he can just tank against. This is one I’d advise listening to rather than watching, as Paire’s outbursts will be better than his play. I’m somewhat expecting Kwon to win, although this is similar to Nishioka/FAA where the more stable player lacks the weapons to just win in dominant fashion. Kwon via retirement.
Coria Jung : Coria is a wall. Jung is not a wall. Why not be a wall? Coria in 4.
Bonzi Ruusuvuori : Bonzi beat Karlovic which makes me sad, but I’m happy to see the challenger journeyman get a shot in a grandslam. Ruusuvuori is slowly becoming a household name, and his clay game isn’t adept but it’s a notch better than Bonzi. Fatigue may be a factor here not in hampering Bonzi’s game, but in Ruusuuvuori’s being more crisp. Ruu-uuu-u—- in 4.
Sinner Goffin : One of the sketchier first round matchups, what with wildcards playing each other and Coria and Jung going at it. This happens though, and it’s our gift to watch it. Sinner is one of the more promising prospects on the tour in a long time, and with the next gen guys finally starting to come through with big results and solid play, seeing a guy who seems more mentally stable than they were early on in their career is even better. Goffin losing quickly to Cilic isn’t a great sign, and he’s always a threat to go elfmode and stifle his opponents ability to play offense, but I think Jannik’s serving will give him a small edge here. Sinner in 4.
Fognini Kukushkin : Fognini had ankle surgeries, or else his recent string of poor performances and losses would be his normal string of poor performances and losses. He doesn’t seem willing to press himself yet, and this is another Paire/Kwon style matchup. Kukushkin will take any victory he gets a look at, but isn’t going to overwhelm his opponent. Fognini’s impatiance against Ruud did include a number of shots that missed by very little, and on the slower courts in Paris he may land a greater percentage of these. I expect Fognini to play a bit better, and this will be about optics. If Fognini feels like he looks bad or is in a spot where him trying would risk his ego, he’ll fold, and Kukushkin will win. This is sad to say about a professional athlete, but Fognini has the ankle situation to fall back on, so if he can’t win,he’ll just swing for the fences and inspect his racquet until it’s over. He’s very pretty tho. Kukushkin in 4, hopefully.
Martinez Vukic : Martinez was the best in the qualifying, and Vukic was in the qualifying. Martinez in 3.
Korda Seppi : Korda is becoming a sleeper pick on tour, and Seppi is notoriously at his worst on clay since he hits such a flat ball. I think this will stretch deep, and I am tempted to give the edge to Korda given Seppi’s recent loss to Klahn and Musetti and Korda’s win against Karatsev, who has been one of the best players in the past month on clay on the challenger tour. Korda in 4.
Benchetrit Isner : Benchetrit can make this close since it’s on clay, but Isner should be able to get into tiebreakers, which makes predicting this almost as annoying as Isner bouncing the ball between his legs. The dude’s a muppet. Someone in 4 tiebreakers.
Evans Nishikori : Evans hasn’t been great, and Nishikori has been worse. Nishikori has looked like he was gaining control of rallies and immediately making errors for a few weeks now, and it’s frustrating to predict his matches because there’s that sense that he will find form at some point. Evans likely gets the W here but it will take a lot of work. Evans in 4-5.
Andujar Travaglia : “BEGONE,” commanded Andujar. I stood there speechless. “YOU ARE AN ILLUSION!” he bellowed, waking several colorful parrots who sat atop his head. I was not there. What he saw was only his vision of me, which had come to him in a dream commanded by the vines and souls of tropical frogs. Confident that I had gone, he hopped off his perch on the mountain peak, and began descending. Not in the usual way via legs and feet, but on the breeze of a thousand moths, while nearby shamans began making a thousand broths. Andujar is back, and I hate this matchup. Travaglia was brilliant on serve leading up to RG, and Andujar was a breath of fresh air on the challenger tour, notching win after win after win and rarely dropping a set. This is one I expect to go deep, as both players are at their best. Who will win? A man does not summon the future, lest it become the present. Shamans in 3.
Diez McDonald : idc
Gerasimov Nadal : So we all know what will happen if I suggest Nadal will struggle in a match. Luckily, I won’t have to here. Gerasimov’s movement isn’t good enough to trouble many players on clay, and Nadal is probably the most dominant single-surface player that tennis has ever seen. He looked pretty human last week against Diego, and his muscles were muscley, but not as muscley as usual. Where is his massive crab-arm? The winner of Travaglia/Andujar will be his first real test. Nadal in 2 somehow.
PS User Kuklachert runs a very fun picking contest if you're interested in discord ... check it out here https://www.reddit.com/tennis/comments/izhabroland_garros_tipping_competition/

Does anyone know how much exposure Barstool Sports itself has in Barstool Sportsbook? (As opposed to Penn National)

I never missed a day of smoking for 15 years. Now I’m 15 days clean. Yes, I’m “that guy” that nobody would expect to quit.

Impossible? I think not.

TLDR – This is the story of how nicotine controlled my life, and how I’m fighting back. The impossible is possible. I hope there are a few nuggets of information in here that may help anyone who needs it.

EDIT (for proper context) - To clarify, 2 packs every 3 days was what I was smoked as a freshman in high school, NOT when I quit smoking a few weeks ago. At the time of my quitting, I was smoking 3 vape pods every 2 days, in addition to 1 weed pod every 2-3 days. This is not safe and I would strongly advise against mixing nicotine & THC on a daily basis. It's just not good for you.

----

I smoked for 15 years – since I was a freshman in high school. I hung out with bad people, did drugs, then received cigarettes from my mom because it was the “significantly lesser of the evils”. I thought it was cool to be a “gangsta”. I thought it was cool to do hardcore drugs, as well as softer ones. I thought it was cool to throw away all that my parents did for me. Damn, how wrong I was.
2 packs every 3 days. Marlboro lights and reds. I smoked a lot, because nobody could stop me.
I’ve had asthma since I was young. During high school, I got good grades - 4.0 nearly every quarter. I played sports as well (wrestling, volleyball). But I kept smoking, kept hanging out with bad people, and kept making bad decisions. It continued through to college.
In college, I partied even harder. I went the social fraternity route, where they ONLY party. I got kicked out of college for bad grades, then went to a community college – where I smoked even more! Those were a good 3+ years of not doing shit – except for partying, smoking, and destroying my life.
Eventually, I made my way back to university - electrical engineering at a California State College. I still smoked a ton, and still partied. But upon getting back to university, I had to take a placement exam for math as an engineer, and I bombed that test so hard that they kicked my math down to remedial levels. To top that off, I failed my first engineering class back, and had severe math course requirements to make up in order to proceed even further. Long story short – if I thought I’d be done in 2 more years, I was wrong. I had a LONG and STRESSFUL way to go.
That simply means that it was a tough road - with lots of smoking. LOTS. And LOTS. Damn, it was a lot. I’d smoke between classes. I’d go for smoke breaks in classes. I reeked of smoke, and it wasn’t only nicotine that was being smoked. I was poisoning my lungs all day long.
When vapes came out, it got even worse. Now, I’d smoke anywhere and everywhere. Whether I’d be at home, at a friend’s house, or at school – I always had to get my fix. I was THAT GUY who smoked the most out of my friend group and everyone I knew. Vape just made this problem worse. In terms of nicotine though, first it was cigarettes, then both cigarettes and vape, then vape only.
Yup - I went through ALL the vape phases. You know, you start off with them eGos. Then you move up to something else, like a provari. Then you start becoming an expert at modding and “building wicks”. Oh, how they get you. As I kept going and going, vaping evolved to cannabis also, so you bet I was on that train. I’d use my inhaler sometimes between weed hits. I could feel myself getting anxiety from weed and nicotine and all this smoking. I went down a freaking spiral, and didn’t stop.
Heck, even if I was in a car with my FAMILY, going to a FAMILY dinner, I’d still vape in front of them. I was that messed up. I was that addicted. I was that guy.

Not me. I wouldn't have a picture of me smoking in front of family, but you get the point. Image Source: Rommel Canlas @ 123rf

……………………………………………………

Fast forward to 2015-2016, I decided engineering school was not for me. I decided that business was my passion. However, my mom begged me not to drop out of engineering school. And for business, the best time to start is always yesterday. So I started my business halfway through engineering school, and did these both at the same time. Do you know how stressful that was? Take whatever I was smoking before, and multiply it by 2. I could cry and feel tears in my eyes, when I think back to how much pain I was in during this period and how difficult this was.
If it was a non-school day, or if I was going HAM on my business, I’d be smoking all day. My room would literally, be a hotbox of just vape. The air in my home was became bad – because of me. At this point, I also withdrew a lot socially, in order to focus on these priorities of business and school. That led to even more stress, as I watched my friends slowly graduate one by one, party and have fun, and start really living life. Guess what more stress means. I don't even have to say it. Downward spiral much?

Not me, but my room was similarly smoked, lol. I wish I had pictures, sorry. Source: filomedia @ pond5

…………….…. but never mind that, I got priorities, right? ……………………………

My first business was a modification I made on an existing invention. It sold out 5 manufacturing runs and I still lost money. Oh wells, I’ll just smoke the pain away.
I started 2 other e-commerce stores after that, both of which failed due to issues where we could not get to making sales. More smoking.
Then the next store I built, somewhere around 2017 or so, we hit it off. I did 7 figures in sales within a year (sales, not profit – but still damn good though). Then, due to some bad business decisions and some suppliers bait/switching me, I lost it all. I watched my bank account, go from nothing… all the way to 6 figures… then back down to NEGATIVE 5 figures. And, it was a slow burn down also. Not a fast one. Believe me, I tried EVERYTHING I could to fix the business, but nothing was working at that time. Guess what – even MORE smoking. Now it was getting bad.
Mind you, I’m still in school also. And electrical engineering school is math heavy, which made things even more difficult because I hated math. But I persevered, whilst using nicotine to fuel myself. A poor decision that led me to smoke even more than I could imagine – now it was becoming a burden to smoke. However, at this point, my life was ecommerce, smoking, and school. ONLY. I literally became a “grandpa” and “turtle” and withdrew from a majority of social things. That means puff, puff, and puff.
I ended up building 2 other stores that failed after that. They were good stores, but they never took off. More smoking. I learned a LOT, but I smoked a lot as well.
Then I had a breakthrough. I partnered up with a friend who built a store but was not profitable on most days, and barely profitable on some days. We went 50/50 – and in 3 days of work I cut his advertising in half. I was ecstatic, and I was still smoking a lot. After a few more days, he decided to “ghost me” because we didn’t sign paperwork, as I trusted him. He basically said “I think this is something I have to do alone”, then went MIA (after I made his story very profitable). I lost it, and smoked even more from that stress.

Not me, but watch out, cool guy over here. Representation of me. Damn I was an idiot. Source: ERPNews

………………………… what a sucky story …………………….

Except I fought back.

I worked every hour I could (smoked every hour I could also, haha). He scammed me, but I learned a ton and started making breakthroughs. I kept grinding, kept smoking, kept grinding, kept smoking.
That experience gave me the insights and strength I needed to rebuild the right way. It was very stressful, very smokey, yes – but at the same time – it was what was needed to take me to the next level.
My health is important, and how can I possibly make an impact on the world if I’m smoking every minute I’m on this planet? Stuff just started clicking, not only in terms of business, but also in terms of beginning to think about the long term implications of smoking. Yeah, I was even that guy at the gym who would vape immediately as soon as I got out of the gym, on the way home, and after the post workout shower. I hated nicotine, but at the same time I couldn’t stop nicotine.

I’ll spare you guys the details, but fast forward a ton of work later, I’ve finally clawed my way out of rock bottom in business. My business has huge plans for 2021, and we’ve already done pretty good in 2020 and have made excellent progress. I am a learner, and every struggle makes me stronger. I’ve crawled out of my rock bottom hole, have rebuilt my business, and have really started focusing more on innovation and being the best option in the market for anything we sell. In a nutshell ~ doing business the right way, by way of innovation & domination.
I’d like to think that I am an inventor who had to learn how to market and sell. BUT, NO MATTER WHAT I THOUGHT, I KNEW FOR A FACT that I was also a smoker who had lost control of his life to nicotine. In order to succeed you must pay a “price” – but my health was the wrong “price” to pay. This was a skeleton in my closet that I had to conquer.

In the midst of this, I managed to barely scrape by and graduate with my electrical engineering degree, which I’ve just received this past summer. I hated every second of it. I smoked myself through everything I learned. But at least I finished it. Momma got what she wanted, even though I have no use for this degree.

Sorry, I haven't taken any graduation pictures yet.

… Sweet. Now life is finally starting to rebuild. But I’ve still got to conquer my biggest demon …

Nicotine.

You do that dance. You know, that old dance – I’ll put my vape down, tell myself NO MORE, then find myself picking that crap up a few minutes later. Sometimes unconsciously, without even noticing.

This is from the show, Peaky Blinders. One of my favorites. This image is from the scene where I got the \"dance\" quote from. Churchill (right) does the \"dance\" with his cigar. Tommy shelby (left) does the \"dance\" with his suicidal thoughts.

… I don’t know what happened, but a few weeks ago, I just went down this rabbit hole of redditing and googling and watching content about smoking and quitting. Seed was planted, or rather – the seed is being watered as I’ve wanted to quit for a while now. But I wasn’t strong enough. No trigger. No catalyst yet. Mind you, when I smoked, there were times when I had chest pains and kept smoking. This started happening a few years ago. Something to do with asthma? Blood pressure? Etc etc…? Not sure.
… Then a little over 2 weeks ago, I smoked a lot of nicotine, a bit too much. I topped it off with a few ganja hits ….

But something felt off. I started having a full blown panic/anxiety attack, and just felt immense pain everywhere. It was in my chest, yes… but for some odd reason my back started feeling uncomfortable, laying down felt uncomfortable, and I just felt like crap. Not sure why this happened – maybe it was a stroke of luck from God, but it happened.

I decided I had enough. I decided that I was no longer going to let nicotine control me.

In tears, I went to talk to my mom. I just told her I needed to talk to her, and I’m fortunate that she worked as a social worker for the county (people go to her for food stamps basically). Because the first thing I said when I opened my mouth was – “I need help.”
I don’t know why I said that. I’m never that “weak” – but this time, I just gave myself up. I finally admitted, that I had a fucking problem.

I’ve kicked weed a few times in the past and have smoked on/off for years at a time… but nicotine was always the constant. I NEVER missed a day of smoking for 15 years. One day I almost came close – when I got my wisdom teeth pulled out. The doctor told me NO SMOKING. Guess what I did after I went home and rested? Yup – I vaped – against the doctor’s orders. As I said, I was that guy.

…
…
…

And quit I did. I threw it all away. Grabbed all my vape AND weed paraphernalia, and anything even remotely related to it. Fucking crumpled it all up and threw it in a bag, and threw it away.

This must be done, symbolically. To show your mind – “hey, fuck you nicotine. I’m in charge. You’ve taken away enough from me”

…
…
…

And I haven’t looked back since.
I must have cried 25+ times throughout the first few days, just by myself. For no damn reason. Just start tearing up. But I knew that this was a demon I had to conquer.
And you know what, it isn’t painful to fight this demon. The pain comes from the EXPECTATION of pain that you’ll feel, when trying to fight nicotine. But believe me, you can do it.

…

I am now 15 days clean.

Me, the guy who all my family, friends, everyone – would NEVER EVEN FATHOM quitting – I’ve fucking quit.

I’ve ALREADY quit for good. I say that, because there are no ands, ifs, or buts. There is absolutely 0 chance of me relapsing. Done is done. I’ve had enough of you, nicotine. 15 years you’ve taken from me. You've given me nothing and have taken so much. But now no more.

That’s 15 years of bad health.
15 years of hurting those around me.
15 years of not being fully ‘present’, because I’d always need my nicotine fix.
15 years of thinking that school/business/weed was giving me ANXIETY, but it was actually nicotine that was doing it.
And most importantly, 15 years of being controlled by this monster they call - nicotine... now - over.

The labor is finished. The task is complete. The next level of life is unlocked. Goodbye nicotine, and thank you for absolutely nothing.

Thank you to anyone who read this far. That is my story.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------

Here are the tips and tricks I used to FIGHT BACK against my addiction. I hope this helps someone:

1. You must know, that you must FIGHT. I promise you, it’s worth it. You might think nicotine is making you “less stressed” and giving you “more energy” to deal with life – but it’s a false illusion. It’s a temporary fix, for more pain later. And it snowballs.
These past 2 weeks have been the most STRESSFREE I’ve been, actually.

2. The first thing you must do is download an app. Some type of quit smoking app. The one I used charges $7 a month, but gives you access to counselors. Trust me, it’s worth it. Just spend that damn $7, even if you feel like you don’t need it. It will force you to talk to these people.

3. Next, in order to fight the cravings, you must MOVE YOUR BODY. Just force yourself to move it.
Take a walk, do some yoga, do some meditation, go for a run.
I know these 4 things are things you DO NOT WANT TO HEAR, or are LAZY AS FUCK when it comes to it….
But believe me – from smoker to smoker:
When you’re running at full speed, you aren’t going to be thinking about a cigarette or vape. You’re going to be thinking about how badly your lungs hurt.
I ran through that pain. I used this pain to EXORCISE the demon out of me.
If I did have a craving while walking, then I had to punish my body with a small 10 second sprint.
Believe me, it’s fucking worth it. It felt so liberating – as I hated running. But for some reason, running this time, feels great. My lungs stopped hurting as bad. More air was going in them.

4. Throughout your activities, put on some motivational podcasts. These helped me immensely. Just type something like “change your life motivation” into YouTube. Play it in the background, and go for a small jog. I guarantee by the end of your jog, you’ll be a better person than you were before you started that jog.

5. GUM. BUY GUM. XYLITOL is my go to, because it will WHITEN YOUR TEETH. Plus, it will define your jawlines. Remind yourself of this. Remind yourself to take care of yourself. Yup – just by you taking care of yourself, this DOES snowball. So don’t forget.

6. Replace the unhealthy habits with the healthy habits. WAIT – before you skim past this, hear me out.
Think about HOW MUCH TIME YOU WOULD SPEND VAPING/SMOKING. THINK OF HOW MUCH EXTRA TIME IS WASTED, BECAUSE YOUR BRAIN HAS TO KEEP SWITCHING TASKS AS YOU GET CRAVINGS.
Now fill that void, with stuff that makes you a better person. Fill that void with meditation and yoga, because chances are, the nonsmokers in your life don’t do that anyways. So let’s take this opportunity, to ascend in our lives and get to the next level.
I started showering 2-3 times a day, started taking better and better care of my health, grooming, cleaning, sorting out my life, etc…. and you know what – doing this has been immense help.

7. Steps 1 to 6 were very helpful to me as now I rarely get cravings. HOWEVER, when I do, there are a few things I tell myself. Some mantras. Some phrases. Check this out.
> First, identify if it is a PHYSICAL or MENTAL craving. If it’s physical, that means you need to get your body moving. Do something else. If it’s a mental, gum will do the trick.
> If it’s a mental and gum isn’t helping, I assure you this trick will help. Instead of trying to resist your craving, instead… just WATCH YOUR CRAVING COME AND GO. Just watch and observe. Don’t fight, don’t react. Just watch it. Just feel it. It’s there, but it isn’t really. So just watch it come and go. Because it will go.
> You must view the nicotine craving as a demon. The evil nicotine demon. You must realize, that when you feel like shit due to the cravings… that more nicotine isn’t the solution. Do you feel pain that you’re going to explode and die because no nicotine???? My friend, that’s EXACTLY WHAT THE NICOTINE DEMON does to you. It tricks you into thinking that the solution to this pain, is more poison in your body. Think about that for a second. You want to cure pain with poison????!?!? Kidding me.
> Lastly, you must remember the main benefit of quitting. I thought it was my health, but I was wrong. It isn’t your health. It’s not money. It’s not family. It’s not this, not that. I’ll tell you what it is.
The main benefit is that you’re more present and in the moment. You’re here. You’re normal again. YOU. ARE. BACK. TO. NORMAL. AGAIN. Don’t you ever forget that. This has implications on every aspect of your life. So let’s make these implications GOOD implications. Trust me, you will thank yourself later.

8. Allen carr has a great book and there are links somewhere here. But to sum it up in a nutshell, or at least to give you what I GOT out of it – Allen carr smoked 100+ cigs a day, even when he was ALREADY dying. He had constant pain. He was so addicted, he had to smoke in order to turn on a light bulb. Goddam, now that – is addicted. Yet, he was able to quit.
He used a simple shift in mentality, which also helps me. What is it?
QUITTING SMOKING IS NOT YOU TRYING TO CLIMB THIS LARGE UPHILL MOUNTAIN OF PAIN.
EVEN IF YOU’VE ONLY QUIT AND BEEN CLEAN FOR 5 MINUTES… THE POINT IS THAT YOU ARE ALREADY AT THE TOP OF THE MOUNTAIN.
You’re already “quit”. Now, you have to make that downhill climb of “maintenance and not relapsing” into smoking.
Well, that’s what I got out of it – but I encourage you to read it.

9. Lastly, if you’re ever in a tough time, please TALK ABOUT IT. You guys here on reddit, are absolutely amazing. Hearing the stories of others, being able to provide insights to others, and helping others through their struggles – is really a medicine and high of its own.
If it wasn’t for all these support networks and amazing subreddits and people in them, I’m not sure if I could have done this. Seriously.

-----------------

So please, if you’re in a similar position, and have a craving – before you send more poison into your body, why don’t you send someone here on reddit a message. Even me. Post something. Comment something. Just reach out and talk to someone! Because you’re not the only one struggling. I thought it was impossible for me to quit, but I did it. Just trust me, there’s something about talking to someone who has been in a similar situation, which is really reassuring. And at this point, we really have to support each other because smoking technology is only going to get more addictive and accessible as time goes on.

Thank you guys for reading everything. It is a long story, yes – but I sincerely hope this helps someone. If you need help, just ask and I will do my best to help.

15 years I smoked every single fucking day. Now I’m 1 day clean for each year I smoked. Pretty soon, it’ll be 2 days clean for each year. Then 3. Point is – I’m done with nicotine, and there is no looking back. It feels fucking great to be free again. To be myself again. And to have my full potential back again.

And P.S. - Fuck you, nicotine. Seriously. Fuck you.

Sincerely,
Kenny

UFC 253 Fight Predictions

Hello friends!
Firstly, I hope you're all doing well, I hope you're all happy, healthy and ready to watch a monumental event.
This has been a very fun card to talk about. It may not be as star stacked as the last card was, but it's stacked in terms of raw talent alone. But... I will state this now because it's pretty important. There are very controversial decisions in this prediction post, I'm sure you'll spot it. and with that warning said, please bet at your own discretion, it's a very hard card to predict.
With all the formalities said and done, lets get dirty.
(c) - Champ
(D) - Debut
FLS - Fight Lose Streak
FWS - Fight Win Streak
NS - No Streak
(#x) - Rank in Division
Lets go!
Prelims
Light Heavyweight
Khadis Ibragimov (8-3-0, 3 FLS) v Danilo Marquez (D) (9-2-0, 2 FWS) - I’m not sure if i’m keen on this, but I suppose any Light Heavyweight bout could be explosive. Ibragimov is on a pretty severe losing streak so far, and considering he hasn’t won any fight in the UFC in his 3 fights, he seems to be on the brink of being kicked off the roster, which is a shame really because he kinda just started. Ibragimov seems somewhat well rounded, he is an adequate grappler and has serious power behind his punches, but at the end of the fight he just seems to be outdone, so i’m a little skeptic about his future performances. Marquez is coming off the regional circuit as a fairly strong finisher who only has one decision win in his professional career. One relatively large issue that I see straight off the bat is his inactiveness, he hasn’t had a fight in over two and a half years, so I feel like there might be some ring rust, and well, it’s hard to tell what he’s gonna bring to the fight. I’m not sure who is gonna win this one, but judging from how active versus how inactive each fighter has been, I feel like Ibragimov has this one.
Ibragimov via KO R2
Heavyweight
Jeff Hughes (10-3-0, 2 FLS) v Juan “Cejudo but bigger” Espino (9-1-0, 7 FWS) - Well, that’s a name I did not expect to see. Hughes seems to be one of those heavyweights that made it through to the UFC on power alone. He’s a big dude that swings and if this was the early 2000’s that would be fine, but considering he lost to two much more well rounded fighters, I strongly hope that he finds a quick turn around because he’s still young and no doubt hungry for victory. In his last fight against Pessoa, Hughes was incredibly patient and didn’t take any unnecessary risks because Pessoa is fairly explosive, he was methodical with his approach and even though he lost the fight, we saw that he didn’t always have a one dimensional approach to fighting. Now, the interesting fighter in this bout is Espino. Now, you might be wondering where you heard that name from, well, he’s the winner of TUF 26 (Heavy Hitters), and at the ripe old age of 37 he won in quite dominant fashion against fellow contestant Justin Frazier. For two years now, I have always asked, where the hell is he? Here he is, his announcement must have completely flew under my radar because I had to blink twice to see if I was dreaming. Espino is an excellent submission artist who has a relatively large background in grappling and submission competition and he has absolutely dominated the scene. Expect the fight to go to the ground early, because that is where Hughes doesn’t want to be, and where Espino needs to be. The tricky part about Espino is how will he look after a 22 month layoff? I’m not sure but i’m pretty excited to see him come back. I got Espino on this one.
Espino via Sub R2
Light Heavyweight
William Knight (#1 US Northeast) (D) (8-1-0, 2 FWS) v Aleksa Camur (6-0-0, 6 FWS) - Knight has been at the forefront of hype during this season of DWCS, he is built like an absolute Abrams and he has insane punching power. Now, whether or not he’s a clean fighter with just insane Usman-esque genes or if he’s best friends with Jon Jones, but either way, he’s a dangerous opponent. We have only seen almost 3 minutes of him beating up his opponent so there’s not too much analysis, but just know that when he lands, he lands extremely hard. The best way for Camur to deal with him, is to avoid him for the first round, gauge the explosiveness, read his setups and then counter. Camur is the longer fighter in terms of range, he can counter jab any aggressive movement that Knight makes. Now, this at the moment is all pure speculation because we’ve only seen a little bit of Knight and Camur, but judging from each fighter's style, if Camur can survive the onslaught from Knight then he’s got it. It’s a tough one to call though, but I might go with the hype train for now, I could be wrong so please don’t bet based on this prediction.
Knight via KO R1
Featherweight
Shane Young (13-4-0, 2 FWS) v L’udovit Klein (D) (#2 Europe Eastern) (16-2-0, 7 FWS) - That’s one hell of a debutant right there and in my opinion an underrated matchup. Young is an excellent kickboxer who throws excellent and slick combo’s efficiently and with such speed. He has often outstruck his opponents and he’s always throwing and always in his opponents face, the pressure is insane and if Klein can’t handle that then he’s in trouble. Klein has an extensive knockout record and at a young age of 25, the fact that he’s knocked out veterans of the sport with relative ease, shows how dangerous he really is. These european guys don’t mess around and we’re seeing more and more talent from that part of the world dominate the scene, and this man is no exception. 7 knockouts, 8 submissions, all action. I don’t like betting against my fellow Aussie/NZ fighters but all of my eyes (I only have two) are on Klein on this one. Such an insanely fun matchup.
Klein via KO R2
Welterweight
Diego Sanchez (30-12-0, NS) v Jake Matthews (16-4-0, 2 FWS) - I love how much of a big favourite Matthews is even though he’s facing a legend in Diego Sanchez, someones probably going to make a whole lot of money. Sanchez might be the strangest fighter both personality wise and his antics in the octagon, but he is no doubt one of the most experienced fighters on the roster. He’s exceptionally well rounded and he gets the job done in many cases. The big question here is whether or not Sanchez will be all there, he’s been knocked out and to many people out there he seems to be a shell of his former self. Now, my man Matthews has one hell of a mountain to climb this coming Sunday, it’s a large step up in competition considering his last fight was against Meek (who at the time of the fight, was 1-2 in the UFC). So to say that Matthews has an opportunity of a lifetime to pull a significant win and get his name in the spotlight is to put it pretty lightly. Matthews is very well rounded with a heavy focus on ground control to major tom. His grappling is excellent, and his relatively large frame allows him to smother his opponents and control everything that his opponent does. Now, will Sanchez be able to avoid the ground? Sure, he’s done it before, but each fight is different. This is a very interesting fight and I wonder how the stress/anxiety of Matthews will be handled, he’s been known to shrug off pressure and get to work without any forethought, but I feel like Sanchez has this one, very controversial I know, you can yell at me in the comments below, so feel free to bet against this, the reasoning why I think Sanchez wins this one is simply experience and knowledge. I just hope that Sanchez doesn’t somehow trip on DMT as he enters the Octagon.
Sanchez via Sub R2
Lightweight
Brad Riddell (8-1-0, 5 FWS) v Alex Da Silva (21-2-0, NS) - The more I watch RiddellThe more that I realize his style is very similar to Volkanovski, with a wide variety of feints which gives his opponent a false sense of varied attacks incoming, when in reality, it's just setting up a strong right hand. It’s exactly how he managed to knock down Mustafaev earlier this year, he started off with many different looks, then amongst the confusion, and the anticipation of something, Mustafaev got hit with the right hand. Riddell is a very good kickboxer, he’s extremely loose on the feet and has great defensive movements. The only thing he really needs to work on is his ground game, in both of his fights in the UFC, his opponents have taken him down numerous times, and whilst Riddell did manage to stand back up and power through, it wasn’t a very technical stand up. That’s pretty dangerous territory if you’re coming up against a submission specialist in Da Silva. Now, Da Silva isn’t only just a submission specialist, he has 13 knockouts as well so its clear that he’s got phenomenal power in his hands. He’s a high level finisher and I’m so glad the UFC picked him up at such a young age. He only has two losses, that’s pretty nuts. This is a very good fight, and I feel like if Riddell has an advantage here, it’s in the striking, it’s very advanced and the fact that he has a heavy focus on feints and different looks he gives off to his opponents, he’s going to be trouble for Da Silva whilst the fight stays on the feet, although i’m quite curious to see if he has upped his ground game and grappling defence a bit. Very interesting match up.
Riddell via UD
Main Card
Featherweight
Hakeem Dawodu (11-1-1, 4 FWS) v Zubaira Tukhugov (19-4-1, NS) - This is lowkey a banger. Dawodu is a solid kickboxer who has a solid background in Muay Thai (42-5-0), a prodigy in combat sports is what I feel Dawodu is. Dawodu has such great consistency with his accuracy and variety of techniques, his kicks are fast, his punches and combos are fast, he’s powerful and he’s always moving. If you watch him closely, no matter what he throws, he has his defence up ready for a counter from his opponent. Do not sleep on Dawodu. I don’t care if your house is on fire, shit it’s probably on fire coz it senses Dawodu on the screen. Tukhugov is well known for his escapades after the Khabib v Conor fight, and he probably boasts about his ability to punch an already defeated McGregor, but all that stuff aside, Tukhugov has very fast and powerful hands, but his most advantageous style over Dawodu is the grappling and Sando style that typically comes from being a cousin of a Nurmagomedov. I highly doubt Tukhugov will exchange with Dawodu. I clearly have Dawodu on this one, very confident with this pick, I just hope Dawodu can avoid the takedowns of Tukhugov.
Dawodu via KO R2
Women’s Bantamweight
Ketlen Vieira (#5) (10-1-0, NS) v Sijara Eubanks (#14) (6-4-0, 2 FWS) - This is a pretty interesting fight because Eubanks was in a fight fairly recently and whilst her being active is great and the opportunity to stack up wins is certainly there, I personally don’t think it’s safe nor smart to get back to back fights considering her history with rough weight cuts and weight misses. All that aside… Vieira is a dominant grappler and BJJ based fighter who drives for a takedown or a trip, she’s very much a ground based fighter and she’s going to be looking to get close and personal, get into a clinch situation and then take Eubanks down because Eubanks has strong striking, and not necessarily clean striking at that. Her only loss was against Aldana who is now headlining the next card after this one, so really that’s a pretty rough loss but it was against a dangerous opponent. Expect the fight to go to the ground during this fight, because Vieira will be looking for it consistently. Eubanks is, as I said before, coming off a decision win over Avila, and what that tells me is that she is going to be cutting weight twice within a month so that’s no doubt going to be detrimental to her health in the long run, but i’m not sure how much it will affect her performance, but i guess we’ll see how she looks at the weigh ins. Safe bet? Vieira, she’s got a great set of techniques that can take Eubanks to the ground and has the experience to keep her there.
Vieira via UD
Co-Main Event
Kai Kara-France (#8) (21-8-0, NS) v Brandon Royval (#12) (11-4-0, 3 FWS) - Now, before you scratch your head and say “Slayer, this isn’t the co-main”. Hear me out, I always do this with multi-championship bouts, and I firmly believe that Reyes v Blachowicz deserves more praise than “Co-Main”. Back to this fight. Kara-France is a very well rounded kickboxer coming out of City Kickboxing (which, I mean, doesn’t surprise me, it seems whenever Izzy is fighting, his whole team is, it’s one hell of a thing to see). Kara-France is a majestic fighter to watch, the way he moves and gets in and out of range, the way he switches stance to launch an attack then switches back almost instantaneously, his footwork is truly something to marvel at, and it’s the main reason why it’s been so successful. It’s just so hard for his opponents to keep track of. It seems to be the core technique of City Kickboxing to have excellent feints and well timed strikes from those feints, because every fighter coming from that camp does it exceptionally well. Kara-France is no different, he doesn’t rush for a finish, he sets a plan and executes it. Royval is still very new to the UFC and has one very good submission win over Tim Elliott, he’s clearly comfortable on the ground and with his relatively dominant time in LFA, it’s clear that the UFC is his next stage of evolution as a fighter. He’s got a very tough challenge ahead of him in Kara-France, but if he can take the fight to the ground I'm fairly confident he can make Kara-France struggle because he’s so fast on the ground. Not only is he fast, he’s significantly taller than Kara-France and longer, so it could be easier to maintain position or to slip in a choke. Either way, This feels like your typical striker v grappler fight and I have a feeling Kara-France has this one.
Kara-France via UD
Light Heavyweight Championship bout
Dominick Reyes (#1) (12-1-0, NS) v Jan Blachowicz (#2) (26-8-0, 3 FWS) - This is a fucking phenomenal fight. You have no idea how loudly I said “holy fucking shit” when I saw that these two were fighting. Reyes went 5 rounds and arguably won his fight against Jon Jones, we haven’t seen Jones in trouble like that in a long time and that’s why I firmly believe that Reyes has the toolset and athleticism to become the champion. Reyes’s background in American Football is pretty beneficial when it comes to MMA if you think about it, explosiveness and cardio are two of the main things for that particular sport and when transferred to MMA you get Reyes. Reyes has what seems like the perfect amount of power and speed, and we saw how much he can adjust in a championship fight against Jones and he exceeded everyone's expectations. The variety of strikes and targets he attacks is incredible and just shows how much he has implemented into his style so early on in his career. Blachowicz has some serious Fuck You power. The way he shut down Corey Anderson in the very first round with a powerful right hook just shows how dangerous he is. Blachowicz has an extensive record and with that record comes devastating knockouts and slick submissions. We have seen him dominate opponents on the ground, in that Jared Cannonier fight he managed to just smash and smother him the whole fight. I do honestly feel that Reyes in this case, having experienced Jones and his ability to survive and thrive, has no doubt added a substantial amount of experience to his fight game. I have Reyes on this, I’m very confident that Reyes has this, it doesn’t need to be a flashy fight, he can avoid the power of Blachowicz and just put on a striking clinic from a distance. This is an insane fight.
Reyes via KO R4
Main Event
Middleweight Championship Bout
Israel Adesanya (c) (19-0-0, 19 FWS) v Paulo Costa (#3) (13-0-0, 13 FWS) - Now, this is the fight I feel like all of us have been waiting for. This is going to be long. Adesanya is one of the biggest names in combat sports at the moment, his extensive kickboxing record has left a mark on that sport, and his introduction to the UFC has shaken the world of MMA. Adesanya has consistently proven to us that he can get it done, it doesn’t have to be a fancy or explosive finish, because at the end of the day, he still wins, and he’s going to win this time… or is he? Adesanya has every technique in the books covered, he has mastered the sport of striking, he has been capable of setting up submissions (See Gastelum fight), he is evasive, but he does have one glaring issue, and that’s the fact that Costa is fighting him. See, Adesanya has fought some big motherfuckers in his time, he has knocked out some huge fighters, and he has survived an onslaught. But everyone slips up, and as the promos about this fight say, someone's 0 has got to go, and we saw some openings in his fight against Gastelum where he suffers, and that’s his inside defence, he’s exceptional at evading and dodging attacks from a distance, but with Gastelums ability to hop into range and land a clean strike, we saw where Adesanya's defences lack, and that’s the movement. Now, before you scratch your head, look at where Adesanya has always been in trouble, against the cage. Costa has this remarkable ability to just constantly be in the face of his opponent and throw hooks, and hooks are dangerous for fighters who evade using lateral movement, it cuts off routes of escape, and I can see Costa cutting off the Octagon and landing solid strikes on Adesanya. Now, what Adesanya does best is counter, if he can counter the oncoming attack from Costa, and change angle to get out of the way, he’s got a very solid chance, and well, his range advantage (8 inches) will play an important role in this bout. Costa on the other hand is all offense. His fight against Romero? Evident that he has the power and weaponry to knock out Adesanya, but he needs to cover that distance first, and by the time Costa goes from his position in the Octagon, to where Izzy is, Izzy is to Costa's left, or right, way out of danger. Costa needs to find an opening, catch a body kick, do something to get into that range where he can land some solid hooks, but this fight is that hard to predict, that anything can happen. Costa is the definition of power. Whether it's Costa winning by KO R1 through 5, or Izzy winning via KO or UD in any round, this is one of those fights that is near impossible to predict. In my honest opinion, I feel like Izzy will simply outstrike Costa, and perhaps knock him out in the championship rounds, so here’s the official prediction.
Adesanya via KO R4
There we go!
See, a few controversial picks, so please implement your own bets into this, i doubt i'll get all of these correct, some ballsy picks haha.
If you would like to follow me on twitter, you can find me @Slayer_Tip or if you want, add me on discord and we can have a super friendly chat about all things MMA: Slayertip#7013
With all of that said and done, I hope to see you guys in the comments down below, it's an amazing event, and I wouldn't pick a better community to share my thoughts and have a discussion with than you fine people.
Much love and happiness to all.
o/

Satan is the good guy

The basest thing recorded of the devil in scripture, is what he did concerning Job and his family, and that was done by the express permission of YHWH, and to decide a little difference of opinion between their serene highness as to the character of "my servant Job."
On the case of Job:
"Then the Lord said to Satan, “Have you considered my servant Job? There is no one on earth like him; he is blameless and upright, a man who fears God and shuns evil. And he still maintains his integrity, although you moved me against him to destroy him without cause.” (Job 2:3)
It is notable that in 2:3, YHWH seems to be arguing that he is not ultimately responsible for Job's loss: "... although you moved me against him, to destroy him without cause." This is a very strange line, since Satan was not reported as doing anything but state an opinion about the shallowness of human loyalty. Indeed, Satan never suggested destroying Job, and YHWH himself never allowed such a drastic move. What is YHWH doing here? Is it possible that he is wrestling with his own demons, a bit guilt-ridden? And if he has this feeling, why does he again hand over power without being asked to do so?
It's a minor addendum, but I think it's noteworthy that when Satan enters, he's merely talking about what he's been doing, possibly with the connotation of looking for something to do. In essence, God is the one to initiate the challenge with Satan by suggesting Job. As suggested with the first paragraph, this places even further responsibility on God.
Job 1:7-8
The Lord said to Satan, “Where have you come from?”
Satan answered the Lord, “From roaming throughout the earth, going back and forth on it.”
Then the Lord said to Satan, “Have you considered my servant Job?
And thus ensues the bet of 2 demons playing with a man's life for sport.
God recommended and encouraged Satan to destroy Job's life, even including murdering his kin and servants. Innumerable human lives are toyed with in the process, many times resulting in death. It's a tyrannical dictator slaughtering whomever he sees fit just to prove a point--or hell, if we're going to be more specific with the case of Job, it's one who makes a casual recommendation to the local arsonist and serial killer. A challenge, more like.
Also considering the fact that the Biblical God is omniscient knowing all the events of the future, including that which Satan would respond with, this further goes to show the immorality of God in initiating the challenge with Satan by suggesting Job.
Had the introductory bit not existed--God's bet with Satan--there could've been far many more interpretations to that story, but if this book is indeed God-breathed, then even as a mere parable, its message should ring true: that human lives are but fodder to God when his pride is at stake and that those who question him after such acts are to be silenced.
Also, what if Satan was testing God?
After all, if God directly commits all sorts of unjust tortures, deaths, and molestations to men, women and children, seen clearly throughout the rest of the Bible-- physical torture in the Old Testament and spiritual torture in hell in the New Testament, all the while expecting people to blindly follow and believe him, what does it say about him?
What if Satan did that because he thought it was a "necessary evil" to uncover the truth about God (or to test him)? Just like God supposedly thought that torturing Job and killing all those people was a necessary evil to teach Job and/or Satan an important lesson (or to test them).
Satan was the only one in the story who was in a position to do this -- to unmask this part of God. Being at one point one of YHWH's greatest of angels, being able to roam freely heaven and earth as he pleases, he was the only one who was able to show God's true character. To test God himself, to show the world his wickedness.
Here is the reason God treats human beings as trash:
"Has the potter no right over the clay, to make out of the same lump one vessel for honorable use and another to throw trash into?" ( Romans 9:21)
This is why in the Bible God treats human beings in the way that he does. He directly has women raped, commits genocide after genocide, has infants and children murdered, has the stomachs of pregnant women ripped open to have their babies smashed to pieces, children sacrificed alive in fire and cannibalized, people torn apart by bears for making jokes, etc.
He [Satan] did the same thing in Eden, saving the human race from the brainwash of God, once again unraveling God's true nature. The necessary evil there was that it led to human death due to sin's nature being inherited, but I would rather die than be a slave in the mind, not knowing good from evil, being ruled by an evil God while brainwashed to think he is good. But again, it is not Satan killing them with a curse, but God. Satan did not make the fruit and place it in the midst of the garden.
The first account we have of the devil is found in the book of Genesis, and is as follows:
"Now the serpent was more subtle than any beast of the field which the Lord God had made, and he said unto the woman, Yea, hath God said, Ye shall not eat of the fruit of the trees of the garden? And the woman said unto the serpent, We may eat of the fruit of the trees of the garden; but of the fruit of the tree which is in the midst of the garden God hath said, Ye shall not eat of it, neither shall ye touch it, lest ye die. And the serpent said unto the woman, Ye shall not surely die. For God doth know that in the day ye eat thereof, then your eyes shall be opened and ye shall be as gods, knowing good and evil. And when the woman saw that the tree was good for food, and that it was pleasant to the eyes, and a tree to be desired to make one wise, she took of the fruit thereof and did eat, and gave also unto her husband with her, and he did eat....
And the Lord God said, Behold the man is become as one of us, knowing good and evil; what if he then puts forth his hand and takes also of the tree of life and eat of it, then they will live forever! Therefore the Lord God sent him forth from the Garden of Eden to till the ground from which he was taken. So he drove out the man, and he placed at the east of the Garden of Eden cherubim and a flaming sword, which turned every way to keep away any from the tree of life."
According to this account the promise of the devil was fulfilled to the very letter. Adam and Eve did not die, and they did become as gods, knowing good and evil (without which by the way, we would have never known that God was evil).
The account shows, however, that the gods dreaded education and knowledge then just as they do now. The church still faithfully gaurds the dangerous tree of knowledge, and has exerted in all ages her utmost power to keep mankind from eating the fruit thereof. The priests have never ceased repeating the old falsehood and the old threat: "Ye shall not eat of it, neither shall ye touch it, lest ye die."
From every pulpit comes the same cry, born of the same fear: "Lest they eat and become as gods, knowing good and evil." For this reason, faith detests reason, theology is the sworn enemy of philosophy, and the church with its flaming sword still gaurds the hated tree, and like its supposed founder, curses to the lowest depths the brave thinkers who eat and become as gods.
If the account given in Genesis is really true, ought we not, after all, to thank this serpent? He was the first schoolmaster, the first advocate of learning, the first enemy of ignorance, the first to whisper in human ears the sacred word liberty, the creator of ambition, the author of modesty, of inquiry, of doubt, of investigation, of progress and civilization. Give me the storm and the tempest of thought and action, rather than the dead calm of ignorance and faith! Banish me from Eden when you will; but first let me eat of the fruit of the tree of knowledge!
Additional information on Job:
When Job opens his mouth seeking an answer to his suffering from God, it is troubling how God answered him. God comes down screaming at Job from a whirlwind and goes on a 4 chapter litany of all the things he created instead of answering the question that Job raised.
In 38:1 we are told that "YHWH answered Job out of the whirlwind." This is critical. A whirlwind (tornado) is a deafening experience. If the whirlwind itself is the voice of YHWH, he is in essence screaming. If the whirlwind is NOT YHWH, he must scream to be heard above the noise. Either way, YHWH is screaming at Job. What he screams is troubling. Instead of addressing the issue that Job and his friends have been arguing (What is the reason for Job's suffering?), YHWH launches into a four-chapter litany of all the things he created.
The actual answer for Job's suffering as you know was that God proposed a bet to Satan, and so was too ashamed to tell Job the real reason behind his suffering -- hence his screaming and belittling of him. The fact is, if God actually told Job the real reason behind his suffering, God would have lost the argument to a mortal man, and it would have proved that God was in the wrong, that God himself was evil. But he dodges the question for 4 long chapters, and never gives the real answer. Christians look at this and say, "Ah, God truly is mysterious!" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QVgZqnsytJI

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Bitcoin for online sports betting. It seems as though the most efficient way to deposit money into online sports books is through Bitcoin, however I am not fully versed in how the process works.

Say a book titled "Grey's Sports Almanac Mar 4, 2018 - 2048" showed up in the passenger's seat of your car. How many predictions does it have to get right before you should start betting?

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After one big bet you'd expect Biff's Sports Alamanac to become inaccurate so how did he keep winning? It was probably magically updating the way all time relics do in BTTF... Biffs book would always be right, no matter how much he changed time!

NFL: Let's talk about teasers (Week 5)