"I knew these blokes were good folk. But really, they're amazing!" — "Jack" / Head Ranger / Maasai Mara National Reserve, Kenya.
Maasai Mara National Reserve, Kenya
There is an official greeting that quickly dissolves in a sea of Hamathi, exploring everything in sight. You can see that they are eager to move through this veld, the closest to their homeworld that exists on Earth. Finally, the lead ranger steps up next to the dignitary and has a short chat with him. Part of which seems to be slightly pungent from the expression of the dignitary. In the end, he bows to the inevitable, and Jack takes the microphone. "Alright, you blokes! Listen up!" The Hamathi, understanding this, turn their attention to him. "Yer welcome here, 'tis what that other fella was trying to say." A murmur of thanks to the dignitary, and a bow, who is now beaming. "There's maps over against that wall. You've been given GPS to track your position. Stay within the bounds marked, and do not hunt! This is your chance to get used to this land. Hunting will begin tomorrow. "For your safety and ours, we have cleared the marked area of all but Rangers, they'll be dressed like me, so they're easy to recognize. Anyone else? They shouldn't be here. Find the nearest Ranger and let them know. "Now, go have fun!" With a cheer, the Hamathi scramble for the maps, taking a good look and comparing them to their wrist mount GPS system. As each group understands the boundary, they scatter among the grass, quickly disappearing. Standing next to Ms. Foxfire, Jack comments. "Them blokes of yours can move fast then?" "Yes, Jack, the average sprinters among them can best Usain Bolt's time by a second. The exceptional sprinters can blow past him like he's standing still. That drops off for the longer distance runs until you get to the marathoners. They can break the two-hour marathon; by minutes. Keep in mind, for the marathoners, they haven't been training specifically for that." "I take it that those are the blokes that ran for the compass points?" "Yes, they decided that if they didn't have a ship, they should start learning ground tactics. They will be the long-range scouts. Bo'sun Gryul started as a ground soldier and somehow got switched over to crewman. He's reluctant to talk about that, so don't push." "What's with that one bloke who hasn't joined the others?" "That's Captain. He'll remain here in the event of an emergency." "That's something else that's bothered me, they didn't take any water, and they didn't take any radios. How do we know if they get into trouble?" "You know how elephants can communicate over long distances?" "Yeah… you don't mean…" "Not as far, but they can be heard by each other at a distance that is just impossible for most humans. I've been told that what Captain is waiting for is either a rallying cry or a danger cry. The number of things they can express easily is limited. We're working on that." "And he'll be able to guide us?" "If the cry comes only once, he can give us a direction, and guess at the distance. If the cry repeats, he can home in on it. It's imprecise, but it's also what the ground troops are trained for when equipment fails. The ground pounder's distrust of equipment seems to be a universal thing." Under his breath, "They got that right!"
Orites
Orites was one of the first to get to the map and is out in front. He's a long-distance runner, but not a marathoner. He's outdistanced the marathoners for now. I am glad that I spoke with Ms. Foxfire, even if it almost killed her. The freedom to run here is worth it. Even more, my promotion chances are now higher. Who knew that I would be one of the one in ten? Not I. Uvir should be through the map now. The hunt begins. Uvir will track me through this beautiful land, while I try to evade him. Time to get a better view around. There, that outcropping should do. Orites leaps to the top of the outcropping, using one foot to push off the middle of the span and gain enough height. There is a cheetah already using the rock. It is startled and bounds off to one side. Seeing this strange new being who does not smell of human surveying the land as it had been, it becomes curious. There, to that side, there is broken ground, I may be able to lose him there, or even turn the hunt back on him. With the usual disdain of cats for the unimportant, the cheetah returns to the survey of its domain. An errant breeze wafts by, the arrogance is instantly gone, and the cheetah disappears into the brush. The breeze came from the direction that Orites chose.
Jack and Ms. Foxfire
"What is that rumble?" "More felt than heard?" "Yes." "That's the Hamathi. Several of them made prior arrangements for a hunting game." "No hunting!" "Only of themselves. It's sort of like hide and go seek, but with prizes and punishments. One runs off, is given a certain time, and another follows, tracking the one who left first. As they're crewmen, it is unlikely that they will do well, but since nothing here is going to smell like a Hamathi, they've got a better chance than usual." "How good's their sense of smell?" "Better than human, we haven't really tested it." "And the rumble?" "A personal call, letting the runner know that the hunter is starting."
Orites
<> There! There's Uvir's call! He's started! Another waft of breeze, and Orites drops and freezes. That was… diesel. Practice time, see if I can sneak up on the Rangers.
Uvir
He's been this way, just about as careless as Gryul warned us not to be. Well, this is play, but I'm still going to catch him. We'll see what he has to say for himself when he comes up before Gryul. Means I can put on some speed, and catch up with him sooner.
Orites
Almost have them in sight, this grass is lovely. I've been a lot more careful since I left the rock Uvir is going to get into trouble if he thinks he can just keep following my trail. As he moves through the grass, he does so with almost the same skill as the cheetah. Not quite as silent, but the wind is in his favor, and the little sounds he makes are pushed away from his target. There are the vehicles. Ugh, it must have a fuel leak to smell that bad.
Uvir
Okay, he made it to this rock, Where did he go from here? Huh. That broken ground would do nicely, but if I go straight for it, I'll be coming from a direction he expects. Let's head for that end … diesel? … must be rangers. I'll bet he's practicing tracking them. Ha! A two for one as the humans put it. Catch Orites and the Rangers! Uvir clears the rock, never noticing the cheetah in hiding, or the marks where Orites landed. He moves swift but silent to the end of the broken ground. Yeah… I think I'm outside the smell their diesel makes. Now, turn into the broken ground, and start sneaking up on both of them.
Poachers
"Jig, you din't say nothing about hunting a human." "Cog, they ain't human. They don't belong here, and we're going to get a ton of money for bringing one of them in. Alive gets us more, but if it comes to that, dead still gets us more money for a single hunt than anything else we've done." "Jig, it ain't right! They're as intelligent as a human. They're human. You want to hunt them, you go right ahead. I'm taking my Rover and heading back." "Don't expect to get no money then, and don't expect to partner with me either." "Jig, if I never see your ugly face again, it'll be too soon. And you can face that way now, I don't trust you worth a damn, and I'm sure not going to turn my back on you until I'm clear. So you just keep looking for your blood money, and I'll get myself out of here." He ain't got the guts to shoot me. He knows damn well that I do. Took him too long to get smart, and didn't stay stupid long enough.
Orites
Those aren't Rangers. What are they? Armed. Not Rangers. Poachers? That's what the briefing said, poachers. I wonder what they're hunting? Orders, call in the Rangers. Haven't seen Rangers at all, haven't smelled them or their diesel either. Hah, they've had an argument. That one, the one backing away.
Cog
Damn fool, hunting a Hamathi? We ain't never targeted a human before. Yeah, sure, we get into it with the Rangers, but that's just part of business. Everyone knows what could happen. The Hamathi? They're only here for safari. I wonder… Should I warn them? I ought to…
Orites & Cog
"SURPRISE!" "COR STONE A CROW! DON'T DO THAT TO A FELLA!" "You are poacher, yes?" "I was poacher. Right now, I'm not sure what I am." "What were you hunting?" Damnit. I can't not tell him. It's his folks, and I'm quits with Jig. "My partner … EX partner … thinks he's going to bag himself one of you." "He hunts Hamathi?" "Yeah. I told him no way, but he's stupid stubborn. Honest, mate? I was arguing with myself if I should tell the Rangers." "You have radio?" "Yes." "Head to Rangers, when you are clear, call them. They will know where to find me. I will make sure of that. Oh. If you do not go to Rangers? I will hunt YOU." Orites gives him a very toothy grin. GULP "Right'o Mate, Straight to the Rangers it is!"
Jig, Uvir & Orites
There's one of the beggars. Come to papa you ugly thing. That is not a Ranger. A low rumble from behind Jig. <> Uvir slowly shifts back, fading into the brush. — What the fuck was that!? Sounded like a big hunting cat right behind me! Nothing there… No… One of them just warned the other off. He's there alright, I just can't see him yet. A low rumble from one side of Jig. <> Uvir has responded to Orites. Good, now to fade back out myself. — Damn. Time to get out from between. This could be fun. Move to one side, even sneaking, I'm faster than him. <> Uvir! No! Curses, he's decided to play with the poacher. Knowing which direction the danger cry came from, and where the poacher is, he rumbles: <> <> <>. — Hah, I'm almost clear; that one is too far back, and the one to the side isn't close enough to get me before I get him. Rally? Me? Rally?! No. I am higher ranked than Orites. <> <> No. This is stupid. Let the human go, the Rangers will catch him soon enough. This time, the rumble is loud enough to be heard as well as felt. <> <> <> <>
Ranger HQ: Captain, Jack, & Foxfire
"Danger. … Danger. … Danger. … Uvir. Rally. Orites. Uvir and Orites are in some sort of trouble, we need to head", pointing, "that way, now." Jack is already headed for the Rover. "Right! Jump in; let's go!." Joanne joins them. "Me too!" — "Orites. Attack. … Uvir. Danger. Rally. Orites." At each call, Captain points the direction. Jack has his hands full driving at this speed. "Foxfire! Put that headset on, and tell me if anyone calls." "Got it." … "Someone named Cog is calling for Rangers, his partner .. ex-partner .. is hunting Hamathi and he doesn't want any part of it." — That call was so loud. Orites is telling Uvir not to engage, but Uvir wants Orites to attack? That's stupid! "Tell him to keep heading for Ranger base, we're on our way." "Cog, Cog, Cog, message received, head for Ranger base, we're on our way."
Jig, Uvir, & Orites
That last one was so loud… I wonder. Could I turn the tables on him? He sounds upset with the other one. For Deities' sake, Orites! Grow a spine! Uvir. Do not be a fool.<> <> <> <>
Captain, Jack, & Foxfire
"Uvir. Danger. Rally. Orites. We're getting close! Less than a klick! I'll see if I can get them to come our way." <> <> <> <> "The broken ground! There's some really broken ground up ahead. Good spot for an ambush!" Please, be alright Orites.
Jig
No. Time to get out. Make a break for the Rover and leave.
Orites & Uvir
They've met up, not because Uvir wanted to, but because Orites came to get him. "Uvir! Damn it! Leave the human to the Rangers!" "Grow a spine, Orites! Besides, I outrank you." "Rank doesn't matter if you're stupid!" <> <> <> <> "See! He wants us to attack!" "Uvir, he just told BOTH of us to rally with HIM. That was not the attack call!" "You'll do as you're told." "No. The Captain ordered us to rally with HIM. I'm going to the Captain, as ordered. Gryul is going to chew you a new hole." Uvir sits there, fuming. Orites heads towards the call the Captain gave. Which just happens to be the direction of the Rover that Jig is making for.
Captain, Jack & Foxfire
I can get there faster on foot, this vehicle has to follow the road. "Did he mean to bail out like that? It looked like a really rough roll! Hell`a recovery though, up and running without a stop." "Yes, I think he did. He's got two of his people out there, who may be in danger, and they're not responding anymore. The best thing he can do now is try to get close enough to drag them in."
Jig & Orites
Damn. Ranger's already coming. Damn, Damn, DAMN! Not this time, you sanctimonious bastards. Almost to the Rover. Shoot them when they come over the swale, and then run like hell. His vehicle… Why is he waiting there? He should be leaving. Orites moves around the poacher towards the direction he's looking. In the distance, he can finally see what the hunter sees, a Ranger's Rover coming towards them at speed. In the passenger seat, red-gold hair flying in the breeze. Joanne! — "So, ya brought a bint with ya, did ya? I'll take her first." NO! A screaming charge. The poacher swings his weapon… A flash of movement. …and pulls the trigger. Uvir falls dead in the arms of Orites. In the last moment, he sprinted between them. Orites looks at Uvir, looks at the poacher, and growls. {{{DEATH!}}}
Resolution
Captain arrives. I am too late. Though perhaps, not entirely too late. "Orites! Stand Down!" {{{DEATH!}}} "No, Orites. Let the Rangers have him. You are one in ten. Let this go." {{{DEATH!}}} A lighter voice, one well known, one with red-gold hair. "Please, Orites. I know what he's done, don't make it worse." {DEATH} Orites comes back to himself. "He killed Uvir. Uvir died to save me. Am I not allowed to avenge Uvir?" Captain responds in precise icy tones. "Orites. While we do have diplomatic immunity, it would be best to let the courts of Earth deal with him. However. If those courts prove ineffectual, I assure you that the hunt will be on. Poacher? You are the one called Jig?" "Y..Y...Yes?" "You had best pray to the deities of this world that your courts see fit to either lock you away for life, or to execute you themselves. For I swear that on the day you are freed, all Hamathi will hunt you down. No matter where you go. No matter what you do. You will die." Jig is stunned for a moment, "NO! YOU HAVE NO RIGHT!" His rifle swings up to train on Captain. A second shot rings out. Jig slowly crumples to the ground. Jack holsters his pistol. "Bad choice, Jig. Bad, bad choice. Let's get your friends back, leave this bit of carrion for the buzzards. We'll get back to him sooner or later." The death call has been heard, rally calls are coming over the land as the dispersed Hamathi close on the point the death call came from. Three Hamathi — one carried carefully — and two humans climb back into the Ranger's vehicle. Driving off slowly, as rally cries surround them, following them back to headquarters. Every so often, Captain gives the Rally cry with his own name. It will bring the others in.
Dusk
At the edge of some broken ground, near an old Rover, a cheetah comes to an intriguing smell; but the hyenas have gotten there first.
The Second Day
The safari is somber. Hunting is put off another day. The Hamathi range widely across the veld, picking up the odd dry branch here and there. Rallying to pick up something more massive. They build Uvir's pyre in a clear span where there is no grass. Just stony soil. Despite that, they carefully groom the ground around the pyre, and fire pumps are brought in to soak the entire area down. They would not risk burning this beautiful land, even to send their comrade off. This does not take the whole day, so there is time left before sunset—too much time, with too little to do in it. The news of Uvir's death has spread among the Maasai in the area. Though the Maasai believe that when you are dead, life is over; they know other people have different views. Having heard of the great ritual, they have come out of curiosity. It is a hectic time for Ms. Foxfire, as she is continually defusing landmines before they get stepped on. Things start getting a bit rowdy, and Jack takes a hand. "Right you lot! Time for races!" The Hamathi are surprised, this is a day of mourning. Games? On a day of mourning? The Maasai are confused as well, races are not what they expected. Both sides have too much energy. Nerves. Anger. Upset. Regret. Curiosity. Challenge. The rangers set one long race, and plan out a series of sprints. Those known for long-distance running start out on the north road, away from the broken lands. This will be a marathon. The first one to reach the halfway point sets the duration of the race. The Ranger will wait at that point for half an hour. After that, he will follow the last person in the Rover. Everyone who reaches the Rover falls in behind it. They run easily now because they would not have been in contention for the win anyway. If the last person falls, they are picked up and helped along; carried if need be. The sprinters work in groups over a shorter course, finding those who are best. To everyone's surprise, one of the Maasai beats all of the Hamathi sprinters. "Jack?" "Yes, Ms. Foxfire?" "Do you know who that young man is?" "Can't say that I do." "I'd find out if I were you." "Why's that?" "You remember I told you that some of the Hamathi sprinters pretty much blew Usain Bolt out of the water? That young man just beat them. What's that tell you?" "Best call headquarters; See if there's a spot on the Olympic team." "That's what I thought too." At sunset, the ceremony takes place, and although not as grand, it is still comforting. A sense of camaraderie has grown about the two peoples. They have raced together, they have seen a comrade off, they have learned of each other. In the morning, a gift from the Maasai, a sapling planted in this stony place. Although the rangers are doubtful that it will grow, the Maasai who move through the area will care for it, enriching the soil and ensuring that it gets water every time they pass through. Over the years, the tree grows tall and strong. Providing shade to all who come, including the descendants of a particular cheetah.
Hunting and Departure
The first day started exciting and ended sadly. The second day saw no hunting and the sendoff of yet another crewman. Since then, it's been an exciting experience. Yes, Hamathi do indeed like to catch their own. Yes, they do succeed — about as often as any solitary predator in the area does typically, which is to say, not nearly as often as they might like. Working in groups, they catch more but have to share. This is not a problem. Despite the death of Uvir, the safari is an excellent release of tension for the Hamathi. In addition to hunting, they practiced ground soldier movement, tactics, and even had some runs against the rangers. The results were a bit one-sided until the Hamathi caught on. Things got a bit more exciting all around, as the Humans and Hamathi brought their ingenuity to the problem. A parting speech from "Jack." "You blokes have been a right handful. I wouldn't have you any other way. Yer all welcome to come back, anytime, with or without friends. In fact, if any of you would like to become rangers, we'll sort something out. Now, before I go all soppy, get out'a here."
Interlude: Resolution of Property
The Outer Control Zone (OCZ) has been down for some time. The debris cleared, roads restored, and other repairs made as needed. Those who lived within that area, but outside the ICZ have returned to their places. They are compensated for the small amount of land that they've lost to the ICZ. When the Hamathi learn of the plight of those who lived in the ICZ, they are offered a choice; return, or receive value for their property and whatever personal property was lost. Many have lived in their houses for generations, they choose to return. Before they make their choice, they are informed that the Hamathi have plans for the available land, but for the indefinite future, it will remain open for farming as usual, except for the fields used for cremation. Those farms receive compensation for the lost land, either as a lump sum or as a yearly fee paid equal to the average earnings per active acre of all the farms in the local area. At the mention of their rations running out, the families ask what sort of foods they need. A list is provided, primarily small game animals, and larger game still hunted for food. With the promise of good pay for the animals, they start stocking what they need to switch from farming to ranching… Although how one "ranches" hares is a strange question. This solves, eventually, the issue of food supplies. In the interim, the farm families are provided funds and asked to purchase the necessary animals, alive. This is explained as an opportunity for them to choose the best of those they get for breeding stock. Any excess is theirs to keep. This causes a great deal of very sharp trading. The better they bargain, the more they have to restart their lives. First | Previous | Next
Incompetence is always a good place to start. Usually, someone stuffed up, and then that someone, or group, tried to cover up the stuff up. Most conspiracies have their root in this rule of thumb. All it takes is someone to take advantage of the cover up, and you’ve got yourself a grand conspiracy. Strap on the tin foil hat, friends. I think we’re looking at the beginnings of the Great Boomer Cleanse (2020) or GBC for short. One of the biggest issues we have in the world economy today is the ageing population. Not only are they a burden on the health system, but they are disproportionately hoarding capital. This is also true in China. Free flowing capital. Every economic policy since the GFC has been designed to stimulate the movement of capital. In much of the west, there is so much wealth tied up in property, retirement funds, bonds and pensions that most just sits in place ticking over interest. I’m no economist, or an expert in the Chinese financial system, but I imagine they have a similar issue with the older generation. I’m sure the autists at WSB would disagree, but they’re too busy YOLOing away all their gains to pay attention to this thread. The older gen doesn’t spend. They don’t invest because they don’t need to. They just pull their dividends and pensions. Spend it on caravan trips, cruise ships, Nigerian princes, and healthcare. While this keeps some industries ticking over, on the whole, capital just sits there. Arguably this is the biggest reason the Japanese economy has been stagnant for 30 years. Plenty of capital exists. It just doesn’t flow. So this generation, in the west at least, were the architects of the globalised economy. Western manufacturing was outsourced to the developing world. Mostly China. They built the factories. They accelerated the technological advance. This saw huge profit growth for the owners and share holders of these industries. But very little wage growth. All of that capital went to the top. And the top is mostly the boomer generation. And now they sit on it. Invest in safe things like avocado trees for the millennials. They’re marking time until they die. At which point their kids, who are well into their 50’s, 60’s and 70’s, get their inheritance, retire and sit on the capital just like their parents did. They’re well passed the age to do anything with it. If you inherit capital when you’re already retired or just about to retire - what do you do with it? Do you invest in new risky businesses? Or do you pay down your debts on your investment properties and take it easy? This hardly stimulates the economy. So along comes a very convenient virus, that is able to spread almost undetected for a decent amount of time. It doesn’t really harm working age people but disproportionately kills the old and very old. Now, if it’s deliberately released or a natural outbreak it doesn’t really matter. If it can just have enough time to get out, establish enough beach heads in enough nations, it will become impossible to effectively control. The world has plenty of control measures in place to catch something like this. You just need a couple of them to fail, or work a little sluggishly. If the world doesn’t really know what it is - if you inject enough confusion into the system - if you bypass the usual political controls, you may just get it out. And the blow back will be minimal. Who would be crazy enough to do something like this deliberately? To their own people? It would make no sense. Never let a crisis go to waste. The West, from a purely psychotic perspective, could certainly benefit from a capital shake up of the older generation. The super rich will not get this virus. Only the middle and lower classes. 6 - 12 months of an economic downturn, the likes of what we should have had in 2008, followed by a economic boom time. Think the roaring 20’s, or any post pandemic period. All that optimism, all that inheritance cash money. YOLO. Stonks only go up! From China’s perspective... China is the worlds factory. They either make everything or they make essential components of everything. Drugs, masks, flesh lights, you name it. Maybe they’ve figured out, that the first country to get a virus outbreak, comes out quicker, and with less overall pain. Like ripping off a band aid. Let it spread outside your borders, then rapidly and aggressively contain it. Threaten your client and puppet states not to close their borders. Accuse any who do of racism. The authoritarian nature of the Chinese government may give them the ability to contain this faster and more effectively than the sleeping West. China can afford to stall their economy for a longer period. Their market is artificial. They create their own economic figures. They can also afford to lose a substantial portion of their population. They’ve got more than enough workers. Once the virus is manageable (through an extensive surveillance police state, using the sort of data tracking and analysis systems google could only dream about legally using) they can kick start their factories. Now they’re in a strong strategic position. They already own half the worlds production. They’ve culled their old and weak. They’ve freed up capital. The virus has “solved” any dissident voices, and taken care of the Muslim problem in the voluntary re-education camps. Now they’re in a position to “help” their poor neighbours in Hong Kong and Taiwan. Their factories are already back up and running, they don’t have a labour shortage. They’re the only advanced economy good to go. Their enemies governments are still battling a pandemic. Their enemies populations are in full panic and isolation mode. What do you do with the short window you have where you’re the only functioning top dog in the world? They’ll solve the Hong Kong issue first. That’s an easy humanitarian mission. Then they’ll be eye-romancing Taiwan. The only thing standing in their way is the US military, and the Orange Man. The first president to stand up to the shenanigans of the CCP. As fate would have it, the US is heading into an election this year. And the US health system is arguably, the worst western system capable of coping with this kind of spread. It’s far too expensive to get sick in the US, and sick leave is not a thing for most people. They can’t even figure out how to test people. If they manage to develop a vaccine - good luck mass producing it. You’ll have to give old Winnie some of that sweet trade war honey. But worry not, my American friends. The Democratic front runner is campaigning on revolutionising the health care system. This sounds fantastic. Couldn’t have come at a better time. I suspect Old Bernie just got the best chance he’s ever had of winning. Trumpy was all set for a landslide victory this year. There’s not a damn thing the Dems could throw to stop the Trump train. Russian collusion, pee pee tapes, special prosecutors, quid pro quo, more Russian collusion. The train never stops. Woo woooo! Time to check Bernies betting odds. Quick questions. Do you think Bernie is going to give a flying Trotsky if the Peoples Liberation Army decides to liberate Taiwan from the demon virus? I’d say he’ll have his own issues to deal with. He’s not going to drag the US into a war over Taiwan. Not while US citizens are dying from the flu. I’m sure there’s plenty of other strategic pieces opening up on the board, but my thumbs are getting tired. What could you do in a chess game if your competitors couldn’t move any pieces? Buckle up. 2020 is going up be wild.
That reminds me of a story. ♫ “And the D-I-Y rocket’s red glare… The homebrew bombs exploding in air… Our vodka 150o proof through the night…That we somehow still had our hair…”♫ The Fourth of July! Or, as we veteran pyrotechnicians call it: “Amateur Night”. However, before we display our prowess afore these once-a-year pyro-tyros, we need to turn back the clock a few months, because, to quote a sage philosopher of the day: “What a long strange trip it’s been.” Moreover, we need a little time to plan our annual gross physical salute to our wonderful nation, in this pre-Bicentennial year. The principal development was that the gang of four was reduced, albeit temporarily, to the gang of three. We’re still not certain who fired this particular arrow of time, so the establishment of causation in such non-experimental designs is difficult. However, we can describe the outcome. Ron’s parents, after a long, though suspiciously unknown to the neighborhood, estrangement, had divorced. Evidently, the pressure of Ron’s father’s profession as a traveling musician proved too much strain for the marriage to bear. Mrs. Ron’s Mother was returning to Oklahoma to be with her aged parents until she could determine which direction she wanted her life to take. Since she barely possessed a high school education, no work experience outside of the home, and relied exclusively on Ron’s father for virtually everything in life, there were few illusions as to how this would turn out. Church groups would weigh heavily in her future. Ron’s father would continue touring with his several bands. He was quite the polyphonic musician, writer, and manager; so was never at a loss for work. Which was a good thing as Ron would be accompanying him on the road; since Ron decided that high school was no longer a necessity and he’d learn his life lessons via The Freeway of Life. Ron was leaving our little slice o’ heaven here in Baja Canada, forever as it turned out, for a life on the road. We never really knew or, be fair, cared that Ron was somewhat of an accomplished bass guitar player; though he couldn’t sing worth shit. This helped tip the pile of results towards Ron’s father when the whole issue of child custody raised its ugly head. For whatever we have done, and whatever we can still get away with; in the eyes of the law, we’re all still minors. Really busy, inquisitive, downright dangerous, and determined minors, but minors nonetheless. At least, for a short while longer. I am certain the fact that Rhonda found herself pregnant had no impact on the decisions made by Ron’s parents. After three months of blissful togetherness, and Ron’s retreat from reality due to his insane jealousy, Ron and Rhonda had become officially “an item”. Casting a single shadow, one never saw one without the other, throw one rock and hit two; that sort of thing. Rhonda decided that pursing courses at university for her journalism career, being at Ron’s constant beck and call while being his ‘significant other’, and being an Assistant Manager at Quakey’s Olde Tyme Pizza Parlor and Saloon was simply too tough of a row for her to hoe. Something had to go. And that something was higher education. Pity. Except for Ron’s completely unsolicited and violently insane displays of unrequited jealousy, the situation between Ron and Rhonda seems just this side of idyllic. That is if idealism came with a side of suspicion, distrust, and cynicism. Rhonda would gently bring up to Ron that she wanted to visit with her pre-Ron girlfriends, had to attend a mandatory meeting with coworkers at the pizza joint, or just wanted to attend a study meeting at university; Ron would board his personal crazy train. A usual Ron/Rhonda exchange would evolve like something along these lines (Ron first): “You’re going out to go cheat on me!” “No, I’m not. I’m meeting with some friends from Journalism class…” “Oh, so you’re going to meet with more than one guy? Want to look like a whore?” “No. I’m just going to the Gasthaus so we can go over our notes before the midterm.” “Oh, so you’re going to go out and get drunk! Cruising for sailors?” “No, the Gasthaus has those big tables so we can all meet around them together.” “Oh, so you like it in the dark so no one can see what you’re doing…” And so on, and so on… We were surprised Rhonda let Ron get within 30 feet of here. Evidently, she did; and he did. Several times, evidently. And now Rhonda was pregnant. So Ron did the ignoble thing: he did a runner. The callous prick. Rhonda cut all ties with everyone, though somewhat confided in me during our final tutoring session. There was very little chemistry teaching that day as Rhonda offloaded her trainload of travails in my direction. What could I do? I wasn’t a counselor, psychologist or psychiatrist; hell, I was still technically a minor, fer Chrissake. This is a fuckload of freight to dump on some guy who’s not even getting any sort of special benefits; not like I was looking for any at present. But, I could listen and provide a literal and metaphorical shoulder on which for her to cry. Yeah, I was a bit uncomfortable as Rhonda ran down the sordid history of her and Ron’s relationship; especially the sections on oral and other varieties of sex. Never, in a fucking million years, would we have figured Ron to be the jealous, conniving, indignant, evil son-of-a-bitch he was. It’s actually a good thing he headed off down the road; there is no way any of us would trust this asshole with as much as a Lady Finger firecracker much less real explosives. Rhonda hadn’t made the decision of whether she was going to keep the baby or exercise her Roe v. Wade prerogative. I really had no horse to back in this race so all I did was console her as best I could and let her use me as an impartial sounding board. It seemed to help. She was going off to Wyoming to be with her Grandparents until the situation “sorted itself out”. We parted as good friends that day, promising to stay in touch. We never saw nor heard from the other ever again. We all wish her well with whatever decision she made; we hope she’s happy. Odd, never heard again from Ron either; probably because he absconded with all our company petty cash, but that seemed an appropriate action for him at the point. We did see some small mention of him in his father’s obituary some years later. We all wished him hell. Moving on. The gang of three decided that we had been whistling past the graveyard in the automotive department for too long. We bit the metaphorical bullet and took Driver’s Education in High School. Considering by then we could perform perfect Bootlegger J-turns at speed and could parallel park blindfolded; we reluctantly shut up, read our outdated Highway Safety books, and tried not to laugh too loudly at the grislier parts of such Driver’s Ed classics as “Red Runs the Asphalt”. We all got our licenses. We were, in the eyes of the law, mostly legal. Insurance? Well, that was another matter. For later. Inexplicably, even though Rick’s idiot brother Rance couldn’t drive since he was unable for some reason to hold down a job, his car was needing more and more automotive attention. Reason? We were beating it to death. We did most the wrenching on it over at Ike’s garage, with the help of Earl, Ike’s recently Army honorably-discharged from SE Asian activities, older brother. I think the more astute of you out there see where this is headed… Ike noted that since we’re doing more demolition work, now its summer, we need to return Rance’s car to him and find our own transportation. [Snapping alternator bolt] “GOD DAMN IT! I hate this piece of shit! Rick! Rock! When are we going to find a new car? I hate this piece of shit! I hate Rance! And I really hate fixing Rance’s piece of shit for him!” Ike lamented. “We're combing the ads. The only ones we found that might work are either too clapped-out or too damned expensive.” Rick noted. “I have to agree, though. We’ve pretty much knackered Rance’s car. I say we quit fucking with it, give it back, and spend our time finding something more suitable.” I said. “HEY LOSERS! What it be?” asks Earl as he invades the garage. “Oh, hey Earl. We’re going to junk this piece of shit and find something we can all use. Got any ideas?” I said. “Me? Fuck no. Hey, I just got back to the world. Tell me again what the fuck you losers are planning on…” “We are the ‘Gang of Three R&D (Renovation & Demolition) Co., Inc.’ ‘No job to big, no fee too big’. ‘Around the world, around the clock’. ‘We blow your headaches away’.” “OK, so we’re still working on a catchy slogan...” Ike clarified. “So you fucktards go out and blow shit up for money? And that’s legal?” Earl wondered. “Not only is it probably not legal, but it is profitable; it gets you out in the open air, and it’s a fucking load of grins as well. Hey. Wait. ‘We blow shit up for SCIENCE!’ How’s that?” I brightened. “Keep working on it…” Earl chuckles as he helps himself to a beer and one of my cigars. Oddly enough, the idea for our truck came from Mr. Armstrong. We were all down at the hobby shop, probably purchasing more cannon fuse when we related our tale of woe. “We need a good truck or panel van, but they’re either shit or too expensive. There’s nothing in the ads and the older ones we find are so rusted, they’ll give you tetanus.” Rick related. Mr. Armstrong says: “Why don’t you try out Anchor Ace’s Auto Auction out on the Interstate? They take in everything from classic cars to total wrecks. The put them up on the block and people bid on them. Highest bid, bingo; and Bob’s your uncle. They take in stuff from distress sales, police confiscations, and all sorts of good stuff. That’s how I got my truck. At a damn good price, as well.” Two weeks later and we’re paddle number 298. We paid $25 for the paddle, that is, the right to bid, but we’d get that back if we won any auction. There was a number of really cool vans, trucks and other vehicles that would all fit our pistol. And we had a whole $300 left in company funds to spend. We’re not walking the fuck out of here… It was an Open Auction, no reserve; meaning bidding started at US$0.01 and if that was the highest bid, you’re the winner. Basically, that was the only way we could have hoped to even come close to some of the vehicles we were lusting over. After seven different bids for vehicles we wanted were stolen out from under us, there came on the dock a strange vehicle, an odd vehicle, a vehicle no one in the in their right minds would have wanted. We lusted after it. It was a panel van built on a truck frame. It had been previously employed in the business of foodservice and even though it was old, it had relatively few miles on the clock. Best of all, it was getting late in the auction and the day so many potential competitors had already secured their vehicles and left. Bidding started and we just stood there, stock-still, silent, waiting out our opposition. If three minutes elapsed with no bid, that auction would be closed and deferred to another day. At 2 minutes 50 seconds, Rick lost his nerve and paddled up $50. Tic, toc, tic. We waited for any other bids. So far, so good. “$100.” some troublemaker bid. Fuck, we had competition. “$150.” We countered. “$200.” Came the reply. “$250.” We responded. “$300.” Came the next bid. We were fuckered. That was the extent of our cash. Damn. Have to wait another two weeks for the next auction…Fuckbuckets. “$400!” came in an offer from a new bidder. “What the fuck?” we wondered. “$400? Once…twice…three times…SOLD! To number 298.” WHAT THE FUCK! We’re number 298! Earl comes wandering over, all smiles, and says “OK, boys, pony up your $300. I just invested a hunnered [sic] bucks in your company. Guess I’m your new partner.” Here a picture of a truck similar to the one Earl bought us that day:. Yeah, it’s going to need some work. We pay up and wait until dark to drive the truck back to Ike’s. We weren’t embarrassed, much, we were just being prudent. We didn’t have any insurance and the signature was still wet on the title. Earl’s title, as it turned out. He wasn’t a minor…details, details… We all stood around looking at the newest member of our troupe, and just shook our collective heads, wondering what our next step would be. Earl broke that dam with: “Guys. Since I’m now a partner, I suggest I go ahead and strip the paint off this goofy truck and gut the interior. I know a couple of guys here in town that are pretty good mechanics and one even owns his own van conversion shop. You still have obligations school-wise and I’m not keen on finding a job just yet. It’ll give me something to do. Whaddya say?” As if we had a choice. “Yeah, but our cool company name “Gang of Three R&D” won’t work any longer. Unless you plan on being a silent partner.” Ike hoped. Earl stopped to ponder. “Well, that’s not going to happen. We need a new company name. “Gang of Four” sounds good. But “Gang of Four” what?” “’Gang of Four Sleazy Whores’ since we’re in it just for the money?” Rick jokingly suggested. “Yeah, that’ll look good on the truck and in the Yellow Pages. Folks will be knocking down our doors with job offers...” I said. “Gang of Four: Trees No More”? Rick suggested but was vetoed as we’re not strictly arborists. More failed suggestions: “Gang of Four: Cause We’re Poor”. “Gang of Four: Hear Us Roar.” “Gang of Four: Demolishing More.” “Gang of Four from Surface to Core.” Odd foreshadowing, at least for some. We finally settled on: “Gang of Four: World Tour”, even though the rhyme was really forced. We decided to go with a sort of musical motif and capitalize on AM radio for advertising. Earl thought it was great since it was his idea. He told us to get lost for a couple of weeks as he and his cronies could attack the truck to transform it into something a little less cartoony. If only… If only… Time progressed and we were called to assemble back at Ike’s garage. The only note we had from Earl over the previous fortnight was regarding some locking cabinets we had asked him and his guys to leave in the truck, as we’d have to do some redesign after the fact for strongboxes and explosives storage/transport. Oh, there was one little request for him to spend a last few extra company dollars on the exterior artwork. Seems multi-colored 70’s-era van exteriors must, by law, contain 300 or more colors. Earl was fairly happy. ‘Happy’ meaning he had free beer for the last two weeks, an unlimited weed supply, and was groovin’ on the fumes from his buddies airbrushes. He was absolutely light-headed to spring his “surprise” on us for the company. Rick, Ike and I grew more uneasy by the minute. “Man, you guys are gonna fuckin’ dig this so much. I’ll bet the [local news rag] will send photographers to cover the scene, it’s gonna be so epic. Everyone will know ‘Gang of Four’!” Earl gushed. Any time, Earl. Let’s have the unveiling. “Oh, yeah. Yeah. Here, just a minute.” Earl went and did something absolutely unnecessary, for no particular reason. “Earl? The truck?” We asked. “Oh, yeah. Sure. Give me a minute to get the keys.” Earl remonstrated. “Um, Earl. They’re in your hand.” Rick noted. “Oh, yeah. How about that?” Earl examined them like they were new versions of the Dead Sea Scrolls. “Ike seems Earl’s had a bit too much happiness today. Can you open the garage and back the truck out before we all go a bit spare?” I ask. “Earl. Keys. Now.” Ike declares. Grinning goofily, Earl hands over the keys to Ike and goes to swing open the garage doors. The truck was covered from the rear to front with a sheet of tarpaulin. “Gotta keep the surprise until the unveiling”, Earl grins slightly unsteadily. Ike carefully backs the truck out of the garage and about halfway down the driveway until he stops, choreographed by Earl’s frantic waving. “There! There! Stop! Oh, perfect. This is gonna be great!” Earl was absolutely giddy with excitement. “Wait. Wait. Wait. Let me pull the tarp. I get to do the unveiling!” “OK, Earl. Take it easy. Sheesh. OK. Go nuts.” Earl gathers up the end of the tarp, yanks with a mighty SWOOSH and hollers: “TA DA!” Umm. Yeah. Well. It was unique. It was, well; colorful. It was, err; interesting. It was, ah; Picasso’s waking nightmare. It was, in reality, a very 1970’s-ish muralized, Yes-meets-Pink Floyd-meets-Emerson, Lake and Palmer-meets-Jethro Tull-meets-King Crimson-meets-Led-Zeppelin concatenation of album covers, in a whore’s dream of a color palette. It showed off our company name and logo; we didn’t even know we had a logo, and lurid, pseudo-3D air-brushed depictions of virtually every type of combustion known to man. From early Cro-Magnon man rubbing his two sticks together to the Eniwetok Atoll nuclear test, it was…busy. “Fuckin’-A, man! Ain’t that SO fuckin’ COOL?” Earl gushed. It was so cool, in fact, we had drawn many of the neighbors outside to see what was scaring their children. The interior was much better, although it was done in a sort of muted brown-meets-beige-meets-mauve; which is a neat trick for any artist to manage. It also included faux-leather captain’s chairs for the driver and co-pilot. It boasted fully-gauged instrumentation, a work table, work area, locking steel-reinforced storage cabinets, a medical center (first aid kit and fire extinguisher), tool racks, restroom facilities (i.e., a place to piss), sink, dual battery setup, running water, 110 VAC outlets, and a small refrigerator. The crowning touch was the addition of a polished cherry wood humidor, mounted directly amidships between the drive and co-pilot. It was a work of art. Violent? Depends on what you were drinking the night before. Earl and his friends didn’t neglect the mechanics of the machine either. They tweaked that big block straight-6 cylinder engine with all sorts of junkyard liberated goodies. New carbs, new camshaft, new valves, and new transmission. Earl was proud that he “Dumped that slush-box (automatic 3-speed transmission) for a new high-performance slap-stick 4-speed.” He also fine-tuned the suspension with new air-shocks, ladder bars, traction control arms, mag wheels, and new tires all around. “Earl, this is great, although I don’t think we really wanted to test it out at Union Grove”; the local dragstrip, Ike noted. “How did you pay for all of this? Shit, the labor alone must have cost us a fortune.” “Oh, not to worry, brother-mine. We nabbed most everything from midnight-boneyard trips. My buddies were glad to get off their asses and actually have something to do. Frank (the van conversion guy) had loads of leftover parts from when folks came in and upgraded their rides, so we got a lot of shit for free. See the perimeter lights?” He flicked a switch and the interior lit-up like a disco. “Earl. Really?” “Yeah. Came from this one dude’s van. He wanted track lighting and we couldn’t let this go to waste.” “So, how much do we owe?” Rick asked. “Oh, not much. Just some free rides and a couple of guys want to come with next time you blow something up…” Earl explained. “So, we’re clear on this monstrosity?” I asked. “Yep. Consider it a gift from your new partner.” Earl crookedly grinned. The next weekend found us all, that is Rick, Ike, Earl, myself and two or three of Earl’s army buddies, out in some not-so-local cow pasture. We had been hired, though almost fired immediately when we rolled up on location: “What the hell is THAT!?!” I believe was the direct quote from Farmer Brown, our current employer. Once we explained ourselves, Farmer Brown settled down and the job particulars were laid out. We were to remove some pesky glacial erratic boulders from the farmer’s south-40 pasture. It was an easy job, for which I was glad. I told Earl and company that: “Here, I’m the boss; just ask Rick and Ike. You do what I say when I say it, or you are gone. It has to be this way.” “Do we have an understanding? “ I asked Earl and his buddies. “Hey, Rock. No problem. We’re all ex-military; we know the score. We can probably show you a thing or two…” Earl replied. “Good. Being ex-military, you absolutely know the value of chain-of-command. We green here?” I ask. “Green as grass” they reply in unison. I made a show of mapping out our quarry [ahem], drawing circuit diagrams and calculating just how much explosive, and the type, to remove the offending boulders. “Hey, Rock. Why not just plant a half-dozen sticks of dynamite on the perimeter and blast the fuck out of the bastards?” Earl asks. “Because we just want to evict them from their earthen homes, not shatter them into a million pieces. They’ll be easier to load up and transport out of here if they are in more or less one piece. Besides, that’s what Farmer Brown ordered.” I reply. “Oh, I see. Gotcha.” Earl notes. “OK, Rick and Ike, this is a job for C-4 and Primacord. We are going to have to dig down around the peripheries of the boulders to get charges under them to give them a boost. Farmer Brown has a backhoe we can use, who’s up for that while I do the paperwork and prime the charges?” I ask. Earl jumps down from our truck and volunteers. “I ran all sorts of heavy equipment in the Army, I can do that no problem.” Well, he is technically a member of the team. Sure, why not? “OK, sounds good. Ike will go with you to show you where the backhoe is kept.” “Back in a few!” Earl cheerfully gives a thumbs-up to his buddies as he and Ike take our truck over to the barn to retrieve the backhoe. I work at our portable worktable as Earl’s buddies ooh and aww over our collected pyrotechnics. Of course, numerous blowing-shit-up Army stories came filtering out. Earl and Ike show up with our truck and the backhoe. Rick gets spotter duty to tell Earl exactly what we need done. I have to admit, I was impressed. Earl handled that old Case tractor like a pro. We had all 5 boulders trenched, exposed, and ready for charging in less than an hour. Ike backed the truck up to a safe distance and told everyone not directly involved with shot setting to back off, keep their hands in their pockets, and just watch. Surprisingly enough, they all did. This would take three separate shots. One for the big block of rhyolite, one for the big granite erratic, and one for the three smaller remainders. Good. That would give most everyone here a chance to play with Captain America. I decided to prime and set all three charges together. They were far enough apart that they wouldn’t interfere with each other and other than the cost of a few hundred feet of demolition wire, would save time and money. After all was set and ready, I took some small red flags out of the truck and planted them in the pasture. “Under no circumstances, does ANYONE go past those flags except me, Rick and Ike. Ground is HOT! If there’s a misfire or hang fire, stay put. Do we have an understanding?” I was greeted with a solid chorus of “Sir! Yes, sir!” Shit. That’s more like it. I told everyone gathered the procedure: Clear, clear, clear. Fire in the hole. Blast on the air horn. Wait for the high-sign from the blaster. Push the big, shiny red button. Duck and cover... “Earl, would you like the honors of the first shot from our new blasting truck?” I asked. And ear-to-ear grin signaled that yes, he would like that. Very much. Checking! CLEAR? CLEAR! CLEAR? CLEAR! “OK, Mr. Earl, please give the call, three times, as loud as you can.” “FIRE IN THE HOLE!” x3. BLAAAT! I did one last quick visual check; all clear. I point to Mr. Earl and yell: “HIT IT!” Earl mashes down on Captain America’s big shiny red button. “PWOOMPH!” Ground shakes, there’s a little tremor. A puff of surface dust. We look over to see a 5-ton boulder sitting on top of the pasture like it actually belonged there. “Excellent. Next?” We ran through the next two extractions clean as you please. We had 5 boulders just sitting there, basking calmly in the warm northern noonday sun. “Ike, would you and Earl take the backhoe back and bring Farmer Brown out here, please?” I ask. “Sure. Back in a few.” Farmer Brown shakily disembarks from our truck. “I didn’t know what to expect when I first saw that truck, but golly-damn, boys, you did a fine job.” “Thank you, Sir. Want to take a look?” So we examined our handiwork, and Farmer Brown demurred a bit. “Well, sons, these three are OK, but these other two are bigger than I thought. Gonna be hard to load. Can you knock them into a few pieces so I can get them loaded with the backhoe?” “Sure, not a problem, barely an inconvenience. That will, however, cost a bit extra.” I reply. “Yeah, I know. No problem. Go ahead and we’ll settle up back at the farmhouse.” “We’ll be done within the hour.” I replied. I had lots of help from Earl and his buddies when I went over to inspect the two large boulders to size them up for reduction. The boulders both had nice fracture systems, so setting a little molded C-4 would make this job go easily. “OK, now it’s nut cuttin’ time. We’re going to be shattering some rocks here, so Ike, turn the truck around ass-first if you would. That way, even if some shrapnel gets loose, we won’t need a new windshield. Gents, everyone not doing something directly on the shot is to be inside the truck when we fire. No arguments, safety first. Right?” “Right, Rock” came the replies. “Rick, get a couple of blasting mats, the heavy hemp ones, that’ll keep stragglers home.” “Got it.” I decided to do both at once, and since it was a pretty good collection of C-4, blasting caps, boosters, and Primacord, I dragged out ol’ reliable, our plunger detonator. “No fuckin’ way. You’ve got one of them? Far out, movie time. Can I try it?” one of Earl’s buddies asked. “Well, I’ll run the demo wires to the inside of the truck, and tie it in. I guess there’ll be no problem. Why not?” He grinned like a Cheshire cat. The shots went off as planned. The blasting mats contained any flying bits of igneous rock and the two big boulders were now a collection of several smaller pieces of big boulder. “That’s it. Wait! Hold it!” I yelled. Earl and his buddies wanted to trek out and check our handiwork. I told them of the danger of smoldering stragglers and how we wait at least 30 minutes for the all-clear. “But in the meantime, I’ll do the paperwork and you can pour me a drink and fetch cigars for all so inclined. “ I added. Paperwork done, we checked our work and found it more than satisfactory. We didn’t bury the smallest chunk of rock and had cleaved the big boulders down to more manageable sizes. We packed up and were getting ready to go when I mentioned it would be a few more minutes. Final inventory had to be done and everything had to tally. “Jesus Christ. You guys are pros. In the Army we never did any of this shit; just blew things up and went forward. I’m impressed.” Earl noted. “Well, here we don’t have people shooting at us.” Ike replied. “True that.” Earl and his buddies agreed. Over the next month or so, we had jobs every weekend. Boulder removal here, tree knocking-over there. It went fairly smoothly and Earl was a creditable asset. At least we didn’t have to worry about him getting jealous over who was driving the truck or any such shit. “Hey, Rock. Next weekend it the Fourth of July. Let’s put on a show to display our new truck. Maybe even get a little free advertising.” Rick said. “We can do that.” I agreed. We spent the next week at Armstrong’s Hobbies spending a good portion of our non-incorporated, non-licensed company’s money buying up cannon fuse, rocket kits, and loads and loads of various chemicals. I had just figured out how to synthesize PETN. It was a similar, though different, method to making nitroglycerine; but this time avoided any loss of outdoor park furniture. We built kit rockets for their one-way trips. We had iron oxide, copper, phosphorus, sulfur, powdered aluminum, as well as a rather large selection of other compounds that make pretty colors when they detonate. I built some M-80 and M-100 equivalents out of cardboard tubes, PETN and cannon fuse. We had Earl and Ike bike down to a state adjacent to ours with more liberal fireworks laws to purchase a load of bottle rockets, firecrackers, and other assorted commercial fireworks. These, of course, were the raw materials for our own designs. I worked up a spectacular secret finale. Just for Earl, it was a surprise. The Fourth rolled around and we just laze around the shop, drinking beer, smoking cigars, and waiting for dusk. Earl had a number of his buddies show up just for the show. Several dollars changed hands during the poker games that spontaneously erupted. Just before dusk, we rolled the truck (which still didn’t have a name) over to the high school yard. It was a huge, open grass field with a running track to the north, a small stadium due east and a large patch of open nothing where we were going to fire off our show. As I noted earlier, the local cops turn a slightly blind eye to fireworks on the Fourth, so we took the opportunity to make it a show. We had music blaring from the truck, fire extinguishers set up to deal with any sort of incendiary problem, brooms and garbage bags to clean up any mess we might make. We just exuded professionalism. We fired off the first salvo of rockets and were rewarded with ohhs and ahhhs from the folks who lived in close proximity to the high school. Several thousand 1” firecrackers gaffer taped under pressure together make a nice display when they detonate all at once. Sounds like some small South American countries. M-80s and M-100’s make one hell of reverberating racket. We decided to keep those to a minimum. PETN is fucking loud. Firing 1,000 bottle rockets in succession like a Russian Katyusha rocket-launcher provided for one hell of a display, especially since we were using an old chain-link fence gate as the launch pad. We had loads of spinners, floaters, screamers, laughers; a whole galaxy of various colored-flame spitting and exploding ground effects devices. The best was our payload rockets. These were launched from the inside of an 8” diameter piece of PVC pipe. It was like a steroidal mortar. Light the fuse, drop the single-stage rocket down the 10” tube, and rapidly set it to 80o in the custom jig Earl ginned up. The rocket would roar out of the pipe like it was the little cousin of the Saturn 5. Then it would explode at altitude. The neighbors loved them. Our stocks were depleting and Earl’s buddy was snoring in the co-pilot’s seat. I figured that since I planned the finale for midnight, now might be a good time to button everything up; just leaving me to set up the finale. One of Earl’s non-drinking buddies was elected to drive the truck the mile or so back to Ike’s and lock it down for the night. They would walk back, with wheeled cooler in tow, to await the witching hour. They took off with the truck and I got to work. I made a wee nest out of the sandbox-sand I had acquired earlier. Just a simple raised circle of sand about 350 meters from where we’d be watching. I ran demo wire back to where our lawn chairs sat and wrapped the ends around the leg of one chair. Then, I pulled out my bag of special goodies: one-half kilo of homebrew C-4 plastic explosive with the added magic ingredient pentaerythritol tetranitrate. Five gallon-sized Ziploc-style bags each containing a gallon of 90 octane gasoline, two blasting caps, two blasting cap boosters, and a length of Primacord. I wired all this together and set the bags of gas on top of the C-4 charge. Galved everything, found it good to go and retired to lawn chair central to keep an eye on everything until everyone returned. I had the Captain America blasting machine set and ready to go. T-15 minutes and it’d be midnight. The local cops have been cruising by about every 15-30 minutes. They would occasionally stop and watch; even giving us a toot on their PA for one particularly spectacular rocket salvo, so I knew they weren’t going to be a problem. Or so I thought. Shift change came at midnight. Ike, Rick, Earl and a few of his Army pals showed up just in time. I was out of beer and they brought the trail-along cooler. It was T-7 minutes now. “So, what’s the plan?” asks Earl, popping a cold one. “What’s your grand finale?” “Oh, yeah. The likes of which few have seen. And fewer have survived to speak about.” I replied. Realizing now that I was talking to a bunch of very recent ex-Army characters, I probably should have re-designed the finale… T-5 minutes and counting. “OK, let’s have a look.” Rick produces a powerful flashlight and scans ground zero. “Clear.” “OK, T-3 minutes. We’ll take another look at T-1, OK?” I note. “Gentlemen, the sign is given. The refrain, please?” “FIRE IN THE HOLE!” was sung in 7-part harmony, three times, at volume and with gusto. The grounds were scanned and re-scanned. “Clear?” “Clear!” I hand Earl Captain America, smile crookedly and say “It’s good to go. HIT IT!” Earl mashes down on the big shiny red button. As we’re picking ourselves up off the ground, we hear sirens headed in our general direction. The grand finale went off great; if great is defined as “deafening fuel-air-gas explosion”. The C-4 detonated a wee bit slower than I had calculated. It blasted the gasoline straight up and straight out, instead of combusting it more or less in place. I was looking for a huge cinematic-style fireball, not a bunker-buster. The gasoline vaporized, as best I can figure, and spread out vertically and laterally in a huge cloud of noxious 90-octane. When it reached 9-14% in air by volume, something, probably a hot piece of wire or smoldering blade of grass, set it off. The shock wave was incredible. It flattened all of us, right on our asses. It scorched a nice, big patch of ground out on the high school sports area. It broke a few windows, but luckily most houses in the area were shielded by topography which worked in our favor as it focused the blast wave up and over most local domiciles. The cops were the first to show up. They were less than amused. The fire department, called by several homeowners in the area, also arrived. We had a little explaining to do. No, I had a little explaining to do. These were not the cops we had dealt with previously, these were the new shift and were not pleased with us being their first call. The fire department guys surveyed the area and hosed it down just for good measure, even though there were no open fires, just some small areas of smoky, barren ground. They were impressed. “Hmmm…call in an airstrike? Not bad for the Fourth of July.” The cops were not impressed. I was arrested, cuffed and tossed unceremoniously into the back of the squad car and transported downtown. “Why me? I wasn’t the only one there!” I protested. “Yeah, but you were the only one with the Captain America detonator in your pocket.” Damn you, Earl, you sneaky bastard. The next day I was facing the judge of the local circuit court. “Ah, Mr. Rock, it’s you again. Didn’t we see you about six months ago in this very room?” as he goes over the evidence and police reports. “Yes, sir.” “So, you haven’t learned your lesson, have you?” the judge rhetorically asked. “Oh, yes sir, I have. After some research, I’ve been able to synthesize all sorts of new…” I trailed off not realizing that the judge was speaking rhetorically. “You leave me no choice, Mr. Rock. I hereby sentence you to 180 days…” Oh, fuck. “At the DeSoto Technical College. You seem to have an aptitude for science and things of that nature. Maybe some structured discipline will help contain your…’enthusiasm’.” declared the judge. “Sir, but I’m still in high school…” “Not any longer. You’re going to be attending DeSoto in lieu of high school; and if you complete the course of study there, it will be counted as your high school diploma. You fail, drop out, or otherwise skive off, it’s the county lock up. Got that?” “Yes, sir. I will not fail.” “It is so ordered.”
Hey all. Got a bit of feedback regarding my blog and posts and it was a bit positive, so here's my Day 3 writeup. Text below, link to website and full Google Document tracking tips is there: https://valueburglar.wordpress.com/2019/03/14/cheltenham-festival-2019-day-3-tips/ Day 2 was much better than Day 1! With 9pts / £90 staked, and 12 pts / £120 returned, that’s the healthy sort of return we want consistently. Of course, we’re down overall, but forgive me for not worrying about that too much right now at the nascent stages of this venture. It was also a good day for punters in general, with Altior retaining his crown (albeit with a little scare); Tiger Roll dominating; and the well-backed Band of Outlaws and Envoi Allen obliging, too. Without further ado, here are my musings ahead of Thursday’s racing. There are a lot of very big fields and as a result, hopefully loads of value to find. Let’s continue the revival! JLT Joel over at 2pts win, at the time of writing, simply says “Defi Du Seuil will win. 1pt win Defi Du Seuil @ 3/1” – and while I assume he’ll be a little more expansive on this in due course, I can’t really disagree. But right now, he’s 5/2, and that’s a little too skinny for my liking. Thus, we take him on with just the one bet. I think Kildisart (9/1 generally) is the one to be on board at the prices. If his jumping improves (it looks a bit novicey, which is fair for a novices’ race!), then he can have a big say in proceedings. Lostintranslation will have to find a little with Defi Du Seuil, especially off level weights, as will Vinndication – whose tendency to jump right-handed isn’t encouraging around Cheltenham, either. Real Steel would be a likeable bet, but he’s being supported even now into 6/1 (opened I think at 8s), so despite his lack of exposure, I’m going to swerve. Voix Du Reve is Ruby Walsh’s choice, and he loves this race. His form has been bang there, and he’d be my second option in this race – Walsh having won the JLT thrice. Pertemps I find it strange that a Barry Geraghty-saddled horse in Sire Du Berlais is a relatively strong head of the market. His handicap record at Cheltenham is terrible, to go back to this Fat Jockey Forum thread. That said, the last three Pertemps winners have all been Irish, and have all been strong in the betting. To that end, I’ll go with current fourth-favourite Walk To Freedom (12/1 each way with William Hill, 1/5 1-5), who is Robbie Power’s fancy for the race, and who ran a blinder in one of the qualifiers for this race. With two recent winners being at the top of the weights, Walk To Freedom could be another, and I like the value. I have to have a second selection here though, especially with six places paid at some firms. Aaron Lad (14/1 each way, Paddy Power or Betfair, 1/5 1-6) is trained by the shrewd Richard Newland and connections have hinted his 90-day break before this race was probably the plan. His last run was over course and distance and I was really taken with how much more he had to give the further the race progressed. A 9lb rise needs to be defied, though, but I’m happy with the price regardless. There are too many others to mention and to cross-reference, but Abolitionist is taking a very similar route toward the Grand National as Pineau De Re, who wasn’t beaten far in this race on the way to a GN 2nd in 2014 – though I’m hoping just for a safe spin round. Wait For Me, with an estimable Cheltenham record, is worth a lash at a big 40/1, but wasn’t too good in last year’s Pertemps, so I’m not poking. First Assignment and Samburu Shujaa are both skinny-ish prices for a reason, too. Ryanair Chase What a card. This is one of the deepest races at the festival. We are almost certainly going to see a bit of a pace war at the front, with four or five who like to make the running (Monalee, Un De Sceaux, Footpad, Frodon etc) ensuring it. The bookies also all seem to have a vice-like grip on the market, with it so competitive. At the time of writing, the top five in the market are generally between 4/1 and 7/1. With BetVictor (again!) paying a fourth place on this race, I’m gonna take a chance on Terrefort (25/1 each way with BetVictor, 1/5 1-4), who has looked decent when healthy this year, finishing in the frame behind Frodon and Clan Des Obeaux at trips of about 3m. While he’s got to find more – of course – the race will be run to suit, and the way he won his novice Grade 1s on soft (with a JLT second, too) gives me hope. The other horse to potentially benefit from the race panning out this way is Road to Respect (4/1 generally), who has swerved the Gold Cup for a tilt at this. If his jumping is better today, then I can definitely see him coming off a hot pace to pick up the pieces and win it around jumping the last or even in the home straight. I’d want Monalee and Footpad at bigger prices; Un De Sceaux may be getting long in the tooth and is in a very deep renewal; and I don’t think Frodon will have the race run to suit. I can’t make a case for others at bigger prices, so this is it for me for the Ryanair. Stayers’ Hurdle This will probably go to Paisley Park. He’s looked phenomenal this year and is a well-deserved 7/4 or so favourite, with wins in the Long Walk and Cleeve Hurdles. I will therefore not be opposing him for win purposes, but with 18 runners, it’s worth having a look at the firms that offer four places (BetVictor, Coral, Ladbrokes and a couple of others that don’t count). Bapaume (22/1 each way with Coral and BetVictor, 1/5 1-4) ran well behind Presenting Percy last time out, and generally has looked solid behind Apple’s Jade too (though she disappointed on Tuesday – but I’d expressed my doubts about her liking for Cheltenham). There was a Grade 1 second place in France last May, and a tidy Grade 2 win over shorter – I think Bapaume is a model of consistency and thus I’m hoping to see a place accordingly. I don’t think anything else in the race is really worth backing: Faugheen is too short and would make for a great story; Supasundae is too often a silver medallist and at 8/1 isn’t worth getting on board; Bacardys likes a fall… and I won’t continue, but you get my thinking, I presume. Brown Advisory Plate Most bookies are offering five places. Only Bet365 are offering 1/4 odds with five places, so every tip will be with them. I’m not surprised they’re offering such good terms, though – this is a very tricky race to unpack. My go-to workings will involve trends in the race and from stables/yards – for the Plate, we can see Gigginstown have a decent enough record. Surprisingly they don’t come mob-handed to handicaps, and they have just one runner this year, Valseur Lido. 33/1 is the right price for a horse out of sorts and I won’t be taking it. However, Venetia Williams sends two to this race, and her record is excellent. She’s had 20 runners, of whom two have won and two have placed, which is a great strike rate. She has been rubbish with her charges in most every other handicap, but the Plate is the one to zone in on. To that end, with both Gardefort and Didero Vallis at 25/1 with Bet365, I’ll be having a small interest on them. Not a tip, but Kauto Riko flies the flag for the /HorseRacingUK subreddit, and I’ll be very happy if he wins! Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle Epatante is well-backed and too short for it. She looks very classy, but hasn’t beaten much, so in what is a pretty competitive field for this sort of race, we’ll be taking her on. Sinoria (8/1 with Hills and 365) is a very attractive price, and was intended to run in the Ballymore, but moves here after Honeysuckle’s injury. Her win last time out has been franked by Chosen Mate, who was odds on for a Grade 2 event, and I think she’s completely the wrong price. Also interesting is Lust For Glory (20/1 each way with Bet365, 1/4 1-3), who is three times the price of Posh Trish, with whom she essentially shares form. Thus, at a price, I’m happy to get on board. Not a race I know too much about, so the stakes will be limited accordingly. Kim Muir Bet365 again come up trumps with five places at 1/4 odds. Then again, it’s another very difficult race to make something of, with the head of the market well looked up, and so many other contenders abound. I won’t have a bet on this one – good luck if you do! Tips Summary 1.30 – Kildisart @ 9/1 – 0.75pts win 2.10 – Walk To Freedom @ 12/1 – 0.5pts e/w (Will Hill, 1/5 1-5) 2.10 – Aaron Lad @ 14/1 – 0.5pts e/w (Paddy Power or Betfair, 1/5 1-6) 2.50 – Terrefort @ 25/1 – 0.5pts e/w (BetVictor, 1/5 1-4) 2.50 – Road To Respect @ 4/1 – 0.75pts win 3.30 – Bapaume @ 22/1 – 0.25pts e/w (Coral or BetVictor, 1/5 1-4) 4.10 – Gardefort @ 25/1 – 0.5pts e/w (Bet365, 1/4 1-5) 4.10 – Didero Vallis @ 25/1 – 0.5pts e/w (same as above) 4.50 – Sinoria @ 8/1 – 1pt win (Will Hill or Bet365) 4.50 – Lust For Glory @ 20/1 – 0.5pts e/w (Bet365, 1/4 1-3) That’s 9pts in play. We don’t need much to come in to profit – let’s go!
I have identified some horses that I am willing to take a chance on Saturday at Saratoga, provided that the track is not off. This seems to be my biggest problem thus for this year as the weather forecast and even equibase has been either wrong or ahead of the actual weather that as occurred almost weekly. At some tracks, a little moisture will not affect the outcome that much, but at Saratoga, it will make a world of difference and if you do not adjust, you will struggle. And while I have hit some nice paying races on off tracks, I tend to get more consistency on fast and firm surfaces. So let's begin. 1st Race: Maiden Claiming $40,000--- 1 1/16 Mile Inner Turf--- 3 YO & Up--- Purse $45,000. If this race stays on grass, my choice to WP will be 11)Letterman(5-1). He has made one lifetime start, broke last, was ranked indicating he was intimidated by seeing other horses around him, but still made a move into contention behind a fast pace before tiring in the stretch. Overall, not a bad race and a good learning experience. His trainer took his time to find another spot for a horse the owner paid $250,000 for and decided to enter him in a claiming race for $40,000. However, both his 2nd start and the softer spot should help him get a better break and make him more competitive. Trainers sometimes will bluff on a horse's potential, in order to get a win for a nice purse. He has bloodlines that is fancy by a lot of breeders and he is bred to excel on grass. 4)Telecommunication(10-1) will be my choice to complete the exacta. He, too, has made one lifetime start last year against Maraud and brow slowly, then went wide into the stretch and failed to make up any ground. After a break of almost a year, back to back solid works and a drop into the claiming ranks, he should be ready to display the front running speed he is bred for. a $42,000 yearling purchase, his sire, Data Link, is a son of major grass influence War Front. Data Link biggest win came in the G1 Maker's 46 Mile S in 2011, but he also ran 2nd in that same race in 2012 to Wise Dan, Champion Older Grass Horse that year. His broodmare sire, Mizzen Mast, started his career in France, ran 2nd in the G1 Grand Prix De Paris and after 2 failed attempts in major grass races in the U.S. he finished his career by winning the G1 Malibu S and G2 Strub S on Santa Anita dirt track. Should show front running speed against these. 2)Azzedine(5-2) has made 5 starts and finished 2nd in three of them. After running an even race for $75000 maiden claimers, his trainer, Chad Brown, has decided to give him a drop of several class levels to try to get him in the winners column. His slightly off the pace style fits well against these. A $336,000 disperal 2 YO purchase, he has yet to meet expectations. While several of these have not performed anywhere near the expectations of their purchase price, 10)Arch Of The Diver, has to be the one owners have given up on. Off almost two years, apparently to try as a stallion, he has been gelded and returned to training. Simply trying to recoup as much money of his $300,000 purchase price as they can get back. Will not play this one at all, on grass or dirt. 2nd Race: Maiden Special Weight--- 2 YOs--- 1 1/16 Mile Turf--- Purse $85,000. I will bet the 6)Southern Bridge(4-1) to WP. A $70,000 yearling purchase, he has made one start on grass where he broke near the back and basically ran an even race, though he passed a few horses on a turf course rated firm, but was obviously yielding or good at best. You can tell by how slow the pace was and the front runner went wire to wire. 11)My America(10-1) will be my choice to complete my exacta box. A buyback by owners because the reserve was not met at $335,000, they decided to race the horse instead. His sire is Medaglia D'Oro but his dam Reaching is a daughter of Dansili, a sire who has made his presence felt in the BC turf races through his daughters. Maryjinsky, her dam, is a 1/2 sister to Better Than Honour, the dam of Belmont S winners Rags To Riches & Jazil. My America has one start, an off the turf sprint where he ran an even race. I will discard that race because it was much too short for his bloodlines and also this one will perform better on grass. This race is stacked with well bred horses but which ones will show front running speed is anyone guess. That said, I will use 3)Vineyard Sound(15-1) and box him in my trifecta. His sire, Stormy Atlantic is a son of Storm Cat and his best foals shows front running speed on grass in top class. Vineyard Sound's broodmare sire, Sultry Song, was a multiple G1 stakes winner on dirt but was also G1 stakes placed in the Secretariat S on grass when third, beaten 2 heads for the win. Another to consider is 5)Ian Glass(10-1), another first time starter who is throwing decent works for his debut. His sire, Hard Spun, came close to stealing the Ky Derby before running 2nd against Street Sense and his sire, Danzig, is known for siring speedy grass runners, too. His broodmare sire is Galileo, top distance grass horse in the world today. His trainer and owner just upset the G1 Secretariat last weekend with 38-1 shot Carrick. However, instead of crossing with Danzig in his fourth generation on his dam side, he crosses with Northern Dancer, through 3/4 brothers Sadler's Wells & Nureyev. If I decide to bet a super, this one will be in my box. 3rd Race: Claiming $50,000--- 3 YOs & Up--- 7 Furlongs--- Purse $70,000. I will make a small wager on the 3)Fundy's Tide(15-1) to WP. He is a need the lead type to perform his best and he should get the lead against these. And it is very difficult to catch a front running type that can sprint clear early then slow the pace down and have something left for the stretch. His last race was simply to far for his bloodlines and he will welcome the cut back to a more reasonable distance. 2)Sir Ballantine(10-1) will be my choice for an exacta box. He has never ran under a mile but his pedigree suggests that will be his best distance. His dam, Wind Flow won 5 of 7 lifetime starts, including three stakes in So. California, flashing 109 and change times but did not win past 6 1/2 furlongs and was not even tried past 7 furlongs. This owner paid $210,000 for this horse as a 2 YO and watched while McPeek was over zealous with this horse. He finally turned the horse over to another trainer four starts back and the horse responded with back to back wins at one mile. But his last two was too long and his trainer looks like he finally realized that. Even his works is screaming sprinter and has for a while. Good chance play against these, especially across the board. I will use the 6)Daddy D T(9-2) in my tri box. He should be the beneficiary of a lot of cheap speed who should tire and come running late but should sit close enough early to make it count. 4th Race: Maiden Special Weight--- 2 YOs--- 6 Furlongs--- Purse $85,000. My bet to WP will go on 8)Cromwell Avenue(12-1). A $210,000 2 YO purchase, his sire, Flashback is a son of Tapit who beat Golden Cents in the G2 San Felipe and then ran second to that rival in the G1 Santa Anita Derby. His broodmare sire, Wolf Power, was a South African champion grandson of Round Table but has many foals to race in the U.S. and most are blazing speed that is difficult to run down. He has one start but he did not break very well, so I will give him another chance, especially since his 2 works since are good. 4)Endorsed(6-1) will be my choice for my exacta box. His sire is Medaglia D'Oro and his dam is Dance Card, a G1 stakes winning daughter of Tapit, whose last start was a fast closing third to Groupie Doll(2 time winner of BC Filly Sprint) and Judy The Beauty(who returned in 2014 to win the BC Filly Sprint). There is another colt in this race that is bred exactly on the same sire & broodmare sire line(trained by Pletcher) and his dam has a similar record to the dam of this horse. While this colt was retained for racing by his breeders, the Pletcher colt was purchased for $320,000 by his owners. My pick to complete my tri box will be 1)Pointer View(12-1). His sire is Paynter, a son of Awesome Again out of a full sister to Tiznow. His broodmare sire, Indian Ocean, won three of five lifetime starts with 2 thirds and Surf Cat beat him both times and they both are grandsons of Storm Cat. When he broke his maiden at 6 1/2 furlongs, he ran a 115 flat while in hand the last part. He was purchased as a 2 YO for $200,000 after bringing $80,000 as a yearling. 7)Ahead Of Plan(5-2) will be my 4th choice if I decide to box a super. He was purchased for $475,000 at a 2 YO in training sale earlier this year. He has the works and bloodlines to win this, though. 5th Race: Claiming $40,000--- 3 YO Fillies--- 6 Furlongs--- Purse $64,000. My pick to win will be 5)Shape Shifter(7-2). She pressed a fast pace in her last in the slop,and got caught late at 3-5. Penn National favors late runners when the pace is contested, even on off tracks, unlike Saratoga. Pino, her trainer, wins at 21% of his lifetime starts and Irad Ortiz Jr. has the mount. I look for her to draw off as she chooses against these but do not expect good odds, as there will be little. My pick to complete my exacta box will be 8)Simona(15-1). She will sit a few lengths off the early pace but should be able to get by most of the tiring speed to finish 2nd. She was claimed out of her last two starts and now James Ryerson takes over as trainer. While Ryerson best training days are in the past, he will always be known for preparing Unbridled's Song to win the BC Juvenile in his third lifetime start and would win the Fla Derby and Wood Memorial under his tutelage at 3. So he can get a horse ready and her work since her last is a step in the right direction. 4)Richie'slilwildcat(3-1) will be my choice for 3rd. She has a lot of front running speed which is always dangerous at Saratoga but she tires late with or without pressure. And she will feel the pressure today as these are better speed that what she is accustomed to running against but should hold third in this weak field. 6th Race: Maiden Special Weight--- 2 YOs--- 6 Furlongs--- Purse $85,000. My pick to WP is 4)Kentucky Wildcat(12-1). He is a homebred which simply means the breeder did not sell him, but kept him for racing and breeding purposes later. His sire is Tapit and his dam, Better Lucky, ran 2nd in the 2014 BC Filly Sprint in her last start to Judy The Beauty. However, she is a multiple G1 winning daughter of Ghostzapper. While her works could be better if the trainer wants to tip others, her pedigree and the fact she has work steadily is good enough for me to take a chance on. 3)Most Mischief(10-1) will be my choice to complete my exacta box. His sire, Into Mischief, is a 1/2 brother to Beholder and a top sire in the game today. His broodmare sire, Elusive Quality, sired several speedy types including Smarty Jones(winner of the Ky Derby & Preakness S) and Raven's Pass(winner of the BC Classic). Most Mischief has a 1/2 sister that was trained by this trainer and after taking a few starts to mature, became a SW of close to $300,000. He has started twice and finished third both times, both in good times. He also sports one of the best money making angles in the game and that is finishing 3rd in his last while beaten more than 2 lengths by both the winner & runner-up. Dangerous at solid odds. O am going to go out on a limb and pick 10)Quick Entry (12-1) to include in my tri box. His sire, Point Of Entry, was a multiple G1 grass winning son of Dynaformer, who is best remembered as sire of ill fated Ky Derby winner Barbaro and Ky Derby 3rd Perfect Drift. Point Of Entry's dam is a daughter of Seeking The Gold. Quick Entry's broodmare sire is Cape Town, another son of Seeking The Gold. Hennessy is sire of his 2nd dam and he is best known as grandsire of Scat Daddy. His last work signals he is ready to win early and while his trainer wins with 6 % of his first time starters, he is dangerous to leave out of any exotic bets. I will box a small super by including the 2)Code Of Honor(6-1). While Shug is usually not interested in asking his horses to win in their first start, I have to included him because Will Farish is his owner and breeder. He put this horse in a sale but his reserve was not met, so he decided to race him. He tried to sale another horse years ago with the same reserve and there were no takers. The horse name? Sunday Silence who went on to win the Ky Derby, Preakness, and BC Classic as a 3 YO and was leading sire every year in Japan during his stallion career. Code Of Honor's sire is Noble Mission, a multiple G1 winning full brother to Frankel. His dam, Reunited, won the G3 Thoroughbred Club Of America S at 7 furlongs for her only graded stakes win. I will wait until placing any across the board money on this horse, but only because Shug is more interested in racing experience than asking a horse for too much too soon. 7th Race: Allowance--- 3 YOs & Up Fillies Restricted To NY Bred ----N/W 1 Other Than Maiden, Claiming Or Starter Or Which Have Never Won 2 Races--- One Mile Turf-- Purse $77,000. 1)Under Suspicion(12-1) is who I will bet to WP. She is making her first start on grass. Her sire, Friend Or Foe, is a son of A.P. Indy's son Friends Lake and his dam is a daughter of Unbridled. Friend Or Foe won 2 NY Bred Stakes and the Easy Goer S but also gave a good account of himself in several G1 stakes races, including the Travers, Whitney S and the Cigar Mile H. Under Suspicion's dam, Misty Rosette, is a 3/4 sister to Littleprincessemma, the dam of TC winner American Pharoah. Misty Rosette won 4 of 8 lifetime starts including 3 stakes races and ran 3rd in the G1 Test S and the G2 Forward Gal S. While none of this points to whether she will like the grass, there are major grass influence dotted throughout her pedigree that suggest she will. My choice in a weak field. 4)Way Smart(7-2) will be my pick to complete my exacta box. She should be ready to win and move on to the next set of conditions as this is her fourth start this year. With a solid work since her last, and bloodlines to match, she will be a huge disappointment if she does not win in this spot. A key in the horizontals, IMO. 3)Hollywood Cat(3-1) is my choice to complete the tri box. She is the only one with enough proven bloodlines to knock out my 2nd choice. Her sire Courageous Cat was a G1 winner on grass and her broodmare sire, Cryptoclearance, is the grandsire of Candy Ride. 8th Race: Lake Placid S(Grade 2)--- 3 YOs Fillies--- 1 1/8 Miles Turf--- Purse $300,000. i will bet the 3)Capla Temptress(6-1) to WP. The expected favorite beat her in last year's BC Juvenile Fillies Turf at 1 mile on grass but she steadied early and that gave the winner all the cushion she needed. Capla Temptress has made two starts since and both came this year. In her first start, she just missed winning the G1 Poule D'Essai Des Pouliches(Fr 1,000 Guineas) that is their first race in their TC series for fillies. Then shipped back to Belmont, she finished 7th beaten almost 4 lengths in the G1 Belmont Oaks but was not likely to beat the winner on that day. Her sire, Lope De Vega and grandsire Shamardal(from first crop of Giant's Causeway) each won the first two legs of the French TC but neither attempted to complete the sweep in the St Leger at 1 3/4 miles. Now transferred to Mott's barn and with 2 good works since, she will be tough to deny. 2)Daddy Is A Legend(4-1) will be my choice to complete my exacta box. While she has been beaten by the expected favorite in all three meetings between these, she now is going a distance she should enjoy more than the choice will. Her sire is Scat Daddy, a top grass sire. Her broodmare sire, Benchmark, is a 1/2 brother to multiple G1 distance grass winner, Tranquility Lake. Their dam is a daughter of Danzig, another top influence on grass. Nice work since her last indicates she is ready to turn the tables on the favorite. 7)Andina Del Sur(15-1) will be my choice to complete my tri box. The 1)Thewayiam has beaten her twice but is was Andina Sel Sur first and second start against winners and Thewayiam also had an edge in condition. Now the edge in condition belongs to this one. I expect an improved race against these as she is entering her fourth race since she was in peak form. While I do not believe she can beat my top two choices, she has the bloodlines to be a factor. Her sire is Giant's Causeway and her broodmare sire is Singspiel, a son of BC Turf winner In The Wings(son of Sadler's Wells)and 1/2 brother to Rahy(sire of Giant's Causeway's dam). Singspiel also ran 2nd in the BC Turf in his only U.S. start after winning the G1 Canadian International in his only start in that country. I actually like Chad Brown's other entry over the favorite at this distance but I also think it is a little further than either will do their best in. 9th Race: Alabama S(Grade 1)--- 3 YO Fillies--- 1 1/4 Miles--- Purse $600,000. I am betting 1)Piedi Bianchi(15-1) to WP. Though I normally bet against Pletcher with 3 YOs and up after June of their 3 Yo season unless they drop significantly in class, I will bet this one because he had the horse for one start, so he hasn't had the time to screw up the horse yet. With her bloodlines and close finishes in thee G1s, she is worth taking a shot with. She has one start this year, a sprint, where she finished third almost 2 months ago. Her sire, Overanalyze, scored his e biggest graded stakes win at 1 1/8 mile and the only time he tried 1 1/4 miles was the Ky Derby, where he was sandwiched turning into the stretch while making a solid move. Her broodmare sire, Tactical Cat, scored his biggest win in the 1 1/16 mile G1 Hollywood Futurity at 2. 8)Talk Veuve To Me(5-2) will be my choice to complete my exacta box. She has the bloodlines to run as far as asked, especially on her dam's side. They will have to run her down and she is still improving. No Monomoy Girl in here that can go with her early. My choice to complete my tri box will be 7)Coach Rocks(15-1). I believe they are sending her for the lead but would do better if they would let her rate and make one serious run in the stretch. Oxbow perform his best while on the lead but Coach Rocks female family was strictly distance oriented where most of them sat near the back of longer races and made a strong run in the stretch. If they chose to push her in this race, I think she has no shot to even hit the board, but if they let her relax, she could crash the exacta. She has proven she will rate on several occasions and those happen to be her best races. I will add the 3)Midnight Bisou(7-5) and box a small super. She is the class of this field but now she is running a distance where bloodlines kicks in and her pedigree shows a lot of mid distance influences but very little classic distance influences. For this reason, I think she is beatable, especially at low odds which she will be. 10th Race: Claiming $25,000--- 3 YOs & Up--- 1 Mile Turf---- Purse $50,000' I am betting the 6)Bitumen(12-1) to WP. This will be his first start on grass. However, his sire, Mineshaft, is a multiple G1 winner on dirt and he was Horse Of The Year as a 4 YO. His dam, Kobla Cat, is a 1/2 sister to Quality Road. Her sire, Tale Of The Cat, is sire of Gio Ponti, a multiple G1 winner on grass from 1 mile to 1 1/4 mile. Jose Ortiz has been named to ride him and while I am not familar with this horse's trainer, the horse has to many positive to ignore. Also, the trainer is removing the blinkers, apparently to get him to rate and to not be over anxious to go too early. 2)Italian Charm(7-2) will be my choice to complete my exacta box. He has ran third 4 times in six starts this year and now drops several levels in class, from an O/C $40000 to 25,000 claiming. He tends to rate a few lengths off the pace and the added weight should assure he will this time too. 7)Indebted(20-1) will be my choice to complete the tri. Throw out his last because he has ran on dirt twice in off the turf races and did nothing in both. Then if you look where his record states he has ran 3 times at this distance and won once, he really only ran once at the mile distance. The other 2 times were at 7 1/2 furlongs on grass, including breaking his maiden in his first lifetime start. The other was his 2nd start this year and he was in lrss than peak shape. His only race at a mile was at the Meadowlands where he drew the far outside which is exactly like drawing the rail in turf sprints at Saratoga. Not likely to happen. Now his bloodlines suggests one mile on grass will be his best distance. His sire, Malibu Moon's 1/2 brother, Temple City, was a graded stakes winner at 1 mile on grass and his best daughter, Miss Temple City , was a G1 winner at one mile. His broodmare sire, Silver Hawk, won 2 graded stakes at 7 furlongs in Europe. He is making his fifth start this year including both dirt races on a surface he despises and he will be huge odds., but an excellent spot play in this race. Maragh has taken the mount and was making a name for himself in 2014 when he got trampled while riding Wicked Strong and the horse clipped heels when Tonalist veered into his path in a move most believed was an intentional by that horse's jockey and severely injured Maragh. While his determination has led him this far back, he still is not where he was at that point. These are my picks for Saratoga August 18. While I have not had the best of years handicapping, it is only a matter of time before I explode and get hot. May not be today but it will not be much longer. I feel I am handicapping as good as I ever have, but the luck has gone against me more times than not this year.
Accidently posted this to golf instead of ProGolf. Makes more sense here. https://progolfweekly.com/power-rankings-2019-masters-tournament/ As 2019 enters its fourth month, America is exploding with green, meaning it is time again to award the sports world’s most famous sartorial symbol of athletic superiority: the green jacket. Augusta National Golf Club, the picturesque host of the most acclaimed and exclusive golf tournament on the planet holds its 83rd addition this week, and this year promises to be one of the most thrilling yet. The field of 87 is composed of world-class talent, budding stars, and a venerable collection of ancient green jacket recipients who had their biggest moment announced by Vin Scully and Pat Summerall, and did their post-victory interviews on the Johnny Carson Show. Ranking such a prodigious field of participants is a near-impossible task, but here goes nothing: (Note: this will be the only mention of Zion Williamson) 15. Patrick Cantlay I wish there was a way to quantify this, but like few players in the field, Cantlay just “feels like” a Masters Champion. The 27-year-old is mature, refined, and resilient, and with his elite length and phenomenal iron game, what he possesses fits Augusta perfectly. The World No. 21 has not yet added a second career victory during the 2019 season, but he has stayed sharp, posting four top 10s in nine starts, and finishing outside the top 24 on just two occasions. Cantlay has the Tour’s seventh ranked scoring average, is 10th in strokes gained: tee-to-green, and since last season, has improved his strokes gained: putting standing from 153rd to 81st. The former amateur superstar is ready for major championship contention, and do not be surprised to see him high on Sunday’s Masters leaderboard, despite the fact that he is making just his third career event start. 14. Bryson DeChambeau Brooks Koepka might have been the 2018 PGA Tour Player of the Year, and there was very little debate, but 2018’s breakout star was undeniably Bryson DeChambeau. The unorthodox 25-year-old took The Memorial, one of the year’s best fields outside of the majors and WGCs, in June, and then triumphed at three events in a five-start stretch later in the year, with two of those coming at FedExCup Playoff Events (he took third in the final Cup standings). Then for good measure, DeChambeau took the European Tour’s prestigious Omega Dubai Desert Classic in late January. In events that did not take place in Paris, DeChambeau emerged as of the Tours premiere players over the second half of 2018. The next step for DeChambeau is to contend on the major championship stage. He has yet to post a top 10 in ten major starts, but that is really just a matter of time. He has played The Masters just twice, with his best finish being an impressive T21 as an amateur. While that limited experience at Augusta might make it improbable that he will leave Georgia on Sunday with a green jacket, nothing “The Mad Scientist” does at this point would be a surprise. 13. Justin Thomas It seems odd that a man who has five top 10s in 10 season starts, and leads the PGA Tour in birdie average and scoring average, could be having an underwhelming season, but that has been somehow true for World No. 5 Justin Thomas. The stats look fantastic, but after eight victories between 2017 and 2018, he has yet to land in the winner’s circle this year, and has surprisingly struggled to close several events where he was in contention. He is also in the midst of a three-start stretch where he has failed to place better than T24. The 25-year-old is undeniably one of the best 3-5 players in the world, although he has yet to crack the code at Augusta, although he has improved in each of his three starts (T39, T22, T17). Nobody would be shocked if JT has a new green jacket and a second career major championship victory on Sunday, but he will need to quickly work out the kinks with his irons and putter that have circumscribed his results over the past month. 12. Phil Mickelson The 48-year-old three-time Masters Champion would become the oldest winner in tournament history if he is able to capture this year’s edition, a win which would also tie him with Arnold Palmer and Tiger Woods for the second-most green jackets. Despite his advanced age, Mickelson has been very sharp at time over the past two seasons, notching two victories in that span, after having not won an event in five years. The latter of those two victories was a phenomenal three-stroke win at February’s AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, something that should be especially encouraging to the man who is a U.S. Open short of the career grand slam, since this year’s U.S. Open is being held at Pebble. However, since that Pebble Beach romp, Mickelson has struggled. He has two missed cuts in five starts since, with nothing better than a T37. He is still long, but his putter has been giving him trouble. Still, Mickelson always seems to awaken for the majors, and The Masters has been his best, placing in the top 10 on 15 occasions. What will be especially interesting will be if Mickelson lets Jake Owen try on his green jacket if he wins. 11. Jon Rahm The 24-year-old from Spain seems like a lock to someday win a major, and more likely will win many. Could this year’s Masters be major No. 1? Perhaps; Rahm finished solo-fourth at Augusta last year, in what was just his second start, but while he has already made a career of being impressively precocious, the man who has won twice on the PGA Tour and three times in Europe has yet to really contend down the stretch in the biggest of big-scale PGA Tour events. That first nearly happened at THE PLAYERS Championship last month, where he held the 54-hole lead, but he then imploded on Sunday with a 4-over 76 that knocked him out of the top 10 entirely. Overall, Rahm has continued to shine in 2019, however. He has six top 10s in just 10 starts this season, and as always, he is killing it with his driver, where he ranks second on Tour in strokes gained: off-the-tee. At third on Tour in first round scoring average, do not be surprised if Rahm gets off to a fast start at Augusta. 10. Matt Kuchar Rickie Fowler has received the most scrutiny of anyone on Tour for not having yet won a major championship, but someone who should be feeling more pressure than Fowler is Matt Kuchar, who is 9.5 years older, and has also never landed in the winner’s circle of a major championship. His performances on the major stage have improved, as he has played inside the top 10 in four of them over the past two years, but he is another player who needs to take one of these to validate his career. Fortunately for Kuchar, he is in the midst of a career renaissance. The current leader in the FedExCup standings had gone five years without a victory on Tour, but has two this season; one in Mexico and one in Hawaii. He has also played well outside those two victories, and especially as of late. Two weeks ago he made it to the championship match at the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play, and then chased that runner-up with a T7 at last week’s Valero Texas Open. Kuchar has been fantastically accurate in 2019, leading the Tour in greens in regulation and ranking 6th in driving accuracy. Kuchar will still have to jump some mental hurdles if he gets into contention late, but now that he knows how to win again, he seems like a much better bet to do that than he did a year ago. At the very least, he would like to get through this week without creating yet more controversy. 9. Jordan Spieth Well, there is no sugarcoating it: Masters prodigy Jordan Spieth has been really, really bad this season. His best finish in a stroke play event was 30th and he ranks 170th in the current FedExCup Standings. His putting has actually been passable, which is a big improvement from a lot of last year, but his driving has been a wreck; he is 212th on Tour in driving accuracy, a big part of the reason that he ranks 203rd on Tour in strokes gained: off-the-tee. Spieth is still carding a lot of birdies, but he is also posting a LOT of really bad numbers, which is illustrated by his 179th ranking in bogey avoidance. He has been especially bad on the weekends. His rounds have been madly inconsistent, and it might be unreasonable to expect him to suddenly put four rounds together at the biggest tournament of the year. So… why is Spieth still ranked this high? Simply put, Jordan Spieth loves The Masters, and The Masters loves him. A course that has a reputation of needing considerable experience to conquer, in just five starts, Spieth has a win, two runner-ups, a solo-third, and a T11. He knows how to play this course, and while his recent results have been abysmal, there have been improvements and highlights as well. At last week’s Valero Texas Open, he surged into contention by opening with back-to-back rounds of 68, and while a front-nine implosion on Saturday basically torpedoed his chances, he showed tremendous resiliency by carding birdies on five of his last seven holes to turn a late 6-over into a 1-over. Also, in his last four starts, he bounced back from all three 75 or 76 rounds with an immediate sub-60 round. Spieth also has been strong this year at getting his tournaments off to good starts, which is essential at The Masters, as the last 13 champions have all been inside the top 8 after the first round. Spieth will have to overcome some mental hurdles, but this is still HIS event, and we think he shows up strong for the sixth straight year. 8. Rickie Fowler An extremely common selection as the world’s best player without a major victory, it is very possible that nobody in this field needs this win for his legacy more than the extraordinarily popular Fowler. His 20s came and went in December without a major on his resume, despite man close calls: he has finished in the top five of eight career majors without a victory, two in each of the four majors. Fowler has finished in the top 12 in four of the past five editions of The Masters, with his best finish coming a year ago, when he shot a field low 12-under over the weekend to finish in solo-second place, one shot short of Patrick Reed. If the World No. 9 is going to prevail in the first major start of his 30s, he will need to play better than he has over the past month, as his last three starts have resulted in finishes of T40, T47, and T17 respectively. Over the scope of the 2019 season, however, Rickie has played well, posting three finishes inside the top 4, including a victory at February’s Waste Management Phoenix Open. The strongest part of Fowler’s game has been his putting; he currently ranks 8th on Tour in strokes gained on the greens. 7. Brooks Koepka The reigning PGA Tour Player of the Year has been thoroughly unimpressive in 2019, and downright awful in the past month, but it’s a major this week, and Koepka knows how to do majors, something strikingly evident by the fact that he has won three of his past six major starts, including last year’s U.S. Open and PGA Championship. The World No. 4 has eight career top 10s in just 20 career major starts, but while none of those have come at The Masters, he has improved his standing in all three of his Augusta starts, finishing T33, T21, T11 respectively. Had he not been forced to miss last year’s Masters with an untimely injury, he very well could have shown four consecutive years of Masters improvement. Koepka’s confidence seems to have been hurt some by a mild drop in distance, something he imputes to deliberate weight loss when trying to look more cut for last year’s ESPN “The Body Issue”, although his biggest drop-off statistically has been with his putter. His current season has not been ALL bad; he won the CJ Cup @ Nine Bridges back in October, and took co runner-up position at early March’s Honda Classic, but he is currently mired in a three-start slump where he has a missed cut and two finishes of T56. There may be some reason for concern, but still… it’s a major, and it’s Brooks Koepka. 6. Xander Schauffele Xander Schauffele is a big-game hunter: when the stakes are highest, he is at his best. The 25-year-old has already placed inside the top 6 three times in eight career major starts, and made the final Sunday pairing of last year’s Open Championship. Schauffele also took the Tour Championship as a rookie, the highlight of a career that has shown that no moment is too big for him. He has been at his best in 2019, his third full time season on Tour, as he has already posted two wins; the first coming at a WGC event and the second coming at the stacked-field Sentry Tournament of Champions. Schauffele’s unflappable demeanor and phenomenal tee-to-green game make him among the favorites to be the next first time green jacket winner. Experience might be his only limiting factor here. 5. Dustin Johnson DJ got the “best to never win a major” monkey off his back when he survived the controversial 2016 U.S. Open at Oakmont, but the 34-year-old Coastal Carolina product is again facing pressure on the major stage, as having just one career major victory feels well short of a what a man of his caliber, a man who has 20 career PGA Tour victories, should have accomplished. Fair or not, he is still likely to play Augusta with a sense of urgency. He has yet to win a green jacket, but he has finished in the top 10 of his last three attempts, including a T10 at last year’s event. 2019 as been yet another tremendous season for the ultra-talented bomber: he won the WGC-Mexico Championship in February, three weeks before prevailing at a European Tour event in Saudi Arabia, and he has finished in the top ten of five of his past seven PGA Tour starts. A year after it seemed like he led the PGA Tour in everything, Johnson has again been a statistical monster, ranking second on Tour in scoring average and strokes gained: total. 4. Justin Rose The 38-year-old Brit comes into the week as the World’s No. 1 ranked player, holding that honor by a smidge over Dustin Johnson (he actually overtook DJ for No. 1 last week, even though neither Rose nor Johnson played). And like Johnson, it could be argued that Rose has been way too good in his career, a career that features 12 European Tour wins and 10 PGA Tour victories, to only have only taken one major championship (2013 U.S. Open). The man who has been a sometimes-unstoppable top-10 machine over the past year and a half has played Augusta extremely well in recent years, having finished in the top 14 in seven of the past eight editions. Two of those high finishes were runner-ups, including a playoff loss to Sergio Garcia just two years ago. Rose has yet to conquer this event, but he certainly appears to have the game for the course. Rose should be reasonably well-rested as he has made just six starts in the 2019 season, with four of those resulting in top 10s including a victory at January’s Farmers Insurance Open. In his most recent start, Rose finished T9 two weeks ago at the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play, advancing from the group stage before being upset by Kevin Na in the round of 16. He currently ranks 3rd on Tour in birdie average and 10th in scoring average. 3. Francesco Molinari The 36-year-old from Italy has had very little success at Augusta, but his course history is possibly irrelevant as he has been arguably the world’s best golfer over the past 11 months. Among the highlights over that time include an unbelievable bogey-free weekend at last July’s Open Championship, where he captured his first major championship victory, an historically great 5-0 week for the winning European Ryder Cup team, and a final-round 64 that led to a two-shot victory at last month’s Arnold Palmer Invitational. Molinari has shown an ability to get hot and stay hot, and the last time we saw him, he was definitely “hot” as he was absolutely dominating his competition at the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play before getting nipped by Match Play savant Kevin Kisner in the semi-final round. He went on to win the third-place match. A very encouraging development in Molinari’s 2019 game has been his putting. Historically the worst part of his game by far, he has jumped from 182nd on Tour in strokes gained: putting to 23rd in the past year, especially scary when combined with his tee-to-green game that ranked second on Tour to Dustin Johnson last season. 2. Tiger Woods The four-time green jacket winner has been extremely motivated to snap his notorious decade-long majorless streak, as he has contended at the last two: a T6 at The Open Championship and a runner-up to major championship wizard Brooks Koepka at the PGA Championship. After a very strong finish to last season, which included a milestone victory at the Tour Championship, Tiger has been “just ok” in 2019 (apologies to all of you who are sick of that phrase after several billion AT&T commercials during March Madness featuring a basketball announcer who was anything but “just ok”, but whatever), but his last start was very encouraging. At the WGC Dell Technologies Match Play two weeks ago, he advanced out of group play and then took down a red-hot Rory McIlroy in the round of 16. He very nearly cracked the top four, but lost his elite 8 match when he missed a four-foot putt on the final hole that he normally sinks in his sleep. The 43-year-old version of Tiger might not be the version that won the 1997 Masters in a 12-stroke romp, but he is still one of the biggest threats in the field. Expect Tiger to post his 14th career Masters top 10 in this, his 22nd career Masters start. 1. Rory McIlroy Everyone knows the story on Rory by now: the four-time major winner needs just a green jacket to become the sixth player in PGA Tour history to complete the career grand slam. In fact, this will be Rory’s fifth consecutive Masters start where he has a shot at that arduous feat. McIlroy is undeniably well-positioned to become a Masters champion: five of his 18 career top-10s in majors have come at Augusta, including each of his past five starts here. In addition, his recent form has been phenomenal, as he has placed inside the top 10 in all seven of his PGA Tour starts since the calendar flipped to 2019. The acme of that stretch was a decisive victory at THE PLAYERS Championship, an event often referred to as “the fifth major”. His victory at THE PLAYERS was especially notable because, despite all his recent high finishes, he had shown considerable difficulty closing tournaments with the lead, something that was well on-display at Augusta last year, where he made the final Sunday pairing, but proceeded to post an extremely uninspiring 74 that dropped him into a share of fifth place. His performance at TPC Sawgrass may have flipped the script on that narrative. The World No. 3 should love his chances this week, seeing as he leads the Tour in strokes gained: tee-to-green and strokes gained: total. Next Five: Louis Oosthuizen, Tommy Fleetwood, Marc Leishman, Paul Casey, Jason Day
It is no secret to Tricolores that Fluminense is in a dire financial situation. With the fat years of Unimed sponsorship long gone, the club hasn't been able to splash money on big signings like it once did in the early 2010's, resulting in mediocre campaigns, with three bottom-half finishes in a row since 2015. However, the club's history teaches supporters that many of Fluminense's successes came not from their stellar squads, but from their tight-knit, sedulous teams instead; and that's just the kind of team they have assembled this season. The board allowed many players to leave the club, including key ones (Diego Cavalieri, Gustavo Scarpa, Henrique Dourado, Wellington Silva, Richarlison, Henrique), to help balance the club's finances and restricted signings to free agents and loanees, which meant manager Abel Braga had to rely mainly on home-grown talent to build his team. It took a lot of time for him to get the team working the way he intended on the Campeonato Carioca, but despite all odds he has so far succeded: in spite of a frustrating elimination to Vasco on a last-minute goal, his campaign on the tournament included a 4:0 win against Flamengo and a dominating 3:0 triumph against Botafogo, showing that the current squad is prepared for the Brasileirão to come. Manager Abel Braga has focused on building a solid defence and a speedy, capitalizing attack, settling on a 3-5-2 formation. Highly contested throughout 2017, goalkeeper Júlio César has improved tremendously thanks to the strong chemistry on the backline of three between recently promoted Ibañez, clumsy Renato Chaves and ever-aging veteran Gum. Richard with his well-timed tackles and Jadson with his fine ball distribution allow Fluminense to control the midfield, leaving creative duties to Sornoza and his great vision of the game, with Gilberto and Ayrton helping from the wings with their speed and exquisite feinting. The pacey and indefatigable second striker Marcos Júnior is Abel's weapon to take the opponent by surprise in counter-attacks; Pedro, with his finesse and positioning, is Fluminense's promising young striker.
Fun fact
There's another good reason for Fluminense's low budget at the transfer window: the Estádio das Laranjeiras, the club's historical grounds and birthplace of the Brazilian NT, is to be renovated for its centennial in 2019 and expanded to a capacity of 15,000, allowing it to host its first professional match since 2003.
Familiar faces
Gilberto came on a loan from Fiorentina and Jadson was released for free by Udinese. Sornoza is also regularly called up for the Ecuador national team.
Star of the show
Sornoza is the maestro of Fluminense's midfield. The Ecuadorian international arrived at the club after carrying Independiente del Valle to a surprise Copa Libertadores final and now dazzles Tricolores with his great ball control and superior reading.
Wild card
Pablo Dyego. The 24-year-old comes from Fluminense's youth academy, but only now he's getting minutes at the team following several loans. He has impressed supporters with his sturdiness, speed, and fine finishing, and could soon get a spot at the starting XI.
After a drought of 15 years with no major title, Grêmio is coming from an incredible sequence of years. Having broken this drought with the Copa do Brasil title in 2016 and achieving the so dreamed about 3rd Libertadores title last year (and just falling short against Real Madrid in the Club World Cup final), Grêmio comes into 2018 with high hopes to be a contender to title in all major competitions. President Romildo Bolzan Júnior and his board managed to recover Grêmio's dire financial situation at the beginning of 2015 season, by betting on Grêmio's academy system and lesser known players, instead of big old names. It payed off, as 3 years later, Grêmio is back winning titles with great young prospects calling the attention of major European clubs. The biggest reinforcement for Grêmio this season is the maintenance of its Copa Libertadores' champion and CWC runner-up squad. The team got a slow start in state league this year, by fielding mostly reserves, being threatened with relegation. Once Renato and his squad took form, the team went back to the performance that earned the title of "most beautiful football in Brazil" at mid 2017, with the trademark style of great possession and offensive football. Grêmio is currently in the verge of winning the RS' state league, and looking as a strong contender for Brasileirão. As mentioned earlier, the core elements of the Libertadores winning team, goalkeeper Marcelo Grohe, National squad defender Pedro Geromel, young star midfielder Arthur, best player in América in 2017 Luan and club legend, manager Renato Portaluppi. Grêmio's CBs are considered the best duo in Brasil, as both Geromel and Kannemann are contenders for going to WC with Brasil and Argentina, respectivelly. In the midfield captain Maicon is back from a 2017 filled with injuries to be the companion of, signed to Barcelona, Arthur. With this, Grêmio solidify even more his possession dominant playstyle, as both are well known for it's pass accuracy. In the attack, Fernandinho and former Dortmund player Lucas Barrios left, leaving their place to Éverton, 12th player in the Libertadores campaign, and with great start of the season so far, and **Jael, initially regarded only as a meme player (Jael the Cruel), but also with an amazing start. Reinforcements signed were Alisson and Thonny Anderson, from Cruzeiro and André, former Santos player, coming from an amazing Brasileirão with Sport last year.
Fun fact
Renato Portaluppi achieved club legend status last year, as the first Brazilian to win the Libertadores as a player and a manager on the same club. Renato joked in all 2017 about making a statue of him if he won Libertadores. Joke became reality and Renato's statue is coming in September.
Familiar faces
Pedro Geromel, former FC Köln, Vitória de Guimarães and Mallorca player, found his football again in Porto Alegre; Arthur, not known yet, but soon will be a common face as he is going to FC Barcelona at the end of the year.
Stars of the show
Marcelo Grohe, Geromel, Luan and Arthur It's impossible to talk about Grêmio's success without citing the 4 players that can earn a call up to the NT, these guys were the foundation to conquer the Libertadores.
Wild card
Thonny Anderson. Young prospect of Cruzeiro academy, came in the deal for Edílson, and is surrounded with expectations. So far, strong showings in the state league, is regarded as the Luan substitute.
Internacional heads into the 2018 Brasileirão to forget and learn from the past 2 seasons. Once a International contender and 2 times Copa Libertadores champions, Inter saw their demise at the hands of poor administration, leading to the first Brasileirão relegation in the club's history and a really weak 2nd tier to get back, not being able to win the title. The year started slow for Inter, being prematurely eliminated from the Campeonato Gaúcho by their biggest rival, Grêmio; Odair Hellman, thus, has enjoyed from a to work with the team, and prepare for Brasileirão. Inter's main strengths rely on the genius of Andrés D'Alessandro and his quality to create their offensive plays, be it in crosses or in free kicks. Alongside D'Ale, Patrick is having a great start of the season so far, their synergy creates the most of offensive sector from Inter, with Patrick scoring many goals himself. The team main goal man is William Pottker, was having a great 2018 so far, until struck by injury, and coming back right on time for Brasileirão. Worth mentioning also Leandro Damião, called for the NT in 2011-2013 is back, but for now, he recovers from a cervical injury. On the defensive sector, GK Marcelo Lomba lives great form, with Inter having to their disposal Danilo Fernandes, another amazing GK. But despite having great keepers, Inter's defense remains a doubt if they will be able to hold on against stronger sides than 2nd tier. With the reinforcement of Rodrigo Moledo, back from Greece, alongside Victor Cuesta, Odair hopes to fix the sector, exposed in the Derbies against Grêmio.
Fun fact
Inter is the only ever undefeated Brasileirão Champion. Inter accomplished in 1979 season, led by Falcão(later Roma player), one of the greatest club idols.
Familiar faces
Andrés D'Alessandro River, Portsmouth, Zaragoza and former Argentina international; Rodrigo Dourado earned a gold medal in the 2016 Olympics for Brazil.
Stars of the show
Andrés D'Alessandro. Idol of the club, star of Inter's 2nd Libertadores, even with 36 years, still the most reliable and consistent player in the team; Patrick,coming from Sport, he has been the best duo to D'Alessandro and overall the best reinforcement so far.
Wild card
Iago. Elected revelation player from Campeonato Gaúcho, seems to be doing great in a position that caused trouble for the whole 2017.
Founded by a group of Italian immigrants in 1914 as Palestra Itália, Palmeiras one of the largest clubs in Brazil in both titles and fanbase. Along with holding the record for league titles (9) and national titles (13), the club boasts around 15 million fans, being tied as the third biggest fanbase in the country with São Paulo and Vasco. Many place Palmeiras currently as the strongest roster in Brazil, having a plethora of options in most positions and reinforced last year's second-place team with players such as Lucas Lima and Gustavo Scarpa, who had both been considered the best players of their teams in 2017 (Santos and Fluminense, respectively). The best position to see the depth that Palmeiras has is GK, where Jaílson is the starter having in the bench Olympic gold medal winner Weverton and club legend (and the original starter in the Olympics-winning team) Fernando Prass. The rest of the team is studded with great players as well, such as the winger Dudu, the defensive mid Felipe Melo and even Borja up front, who seams to have regained his good football, being the team's top scorer so far in the season. The 2018 Season has barely started, but it's already been a roller-coaster for the club. With a blazing start, the team seaming to find a good cohesion and a starting XI shaping up more and more, things changed in the two-week stretch before the beginning of the Brasileirão. Palmeiras had to play the two legs of the Paulista final against arch-rivals Corinthians in the weekends as well as two Libertadores games in the midweeks, a level of intensity the team had not yet been tested for. With two wins, a loss, a draw, and a lost title, it's become blatant that the team's major weakness is the inexperienced duo of defenders, as Palmeiras has not yet been able to replace the loss of Yerry Mina to Barcelona. Another glaring issue Palmeiras will have to overcome is the unequalled pressure to succeed coming from fans and press alike.
Fun fact
In 1965 for the inauguration of the Mineirão the Brazil national team won a friendly against the Uruguayan NT 3:0. That team was 100% composed of Palmeiras players, as well as the manager, Filpo Nuñez, who is the only non-Brazilian to manage the Brazil national team.
Familiar faces
Felipe Melo is undoubtly the most well-known player for Europeans, but Lucas Lima, Dudu and Borja are also somewhat well known.
Star of the show
Dudu is the thermometer of the team, when he's well, the team's well, when he's not, the team lags with him.
Wild card
Keno late bloomer Keno is going into his second season with the green kit and has shown both at the end of the last season and at the beginning of this one that he could be claiming a spot in the starting XI soon.
Paraná Clube is the youngest club in the 2018 Brasileirão 2018 but despite being 28 years old, it carries the history of the clubs that merged to create the Tricolor. It wouldn't take long for its first local titles, the 90s were dominated by Paraná and the club reached its peak by winning the Campeonato Paranaense five times in a row and by playing at the top flight for 14 of the club's first 18 years. In 2007, Paraná reached the round of 16 in its first and only Copa Libertadores. In that same year, struggling with serious financial problems, the Tricolor was relegated to the second division, being able to return to the Brasileirão only in 2017. After getting promoted in 2017, I thought Paraná would be a contender for the 2018 Campeonato Paranense. That is the cost of success for smaller clubs in Brazil, we couldn't keep most of our players from last season: only three of the victorious starting XI are still in Paraná. Manager Wagner Lopes was fired after a series of five matches without a victory and Rogério Micale was appointed as the new coach. He will only have to deal with Brasileirão since we are already out of Copa do Brasil (beaten by Sampaio Corrêa, a 2nd tier side)... maybe a good thing as we will need full power in all and every match to avoid relegation. The squad has lost some important players like Maidana (Atlético-MG), Eduardo Brock (Goiás), João Pedro (Atlético-PR) and Renatinho (Botafogo). Richard is a great goalkeeper but I feel he will have a tougher job this season playing against stronger sides. Without the centre-backs from 2017, I don't believe we will keep a decent defence like we had last year (43 goals conceded in 64 matches). Leandro Vilela and Carlos Eduardo are a safe choice in the midfield, while Baez and Diego are playing as wide-midfielders trying to open spaces in the opponents' defense. This also creates some problems to Paraná because we don't have a midfield fast enough that covers the final third of the pitch. Thiago Santos is our main striker (34 goals in 110 matches in his career) but he still needs to prove his worth in the Brasileirão. All in all, 2018 will be a successful season for Paraná if the club manages to escape relegation.
Fun fact
In 1999, Paraná faced San Lorenzo (PAR) in Copa Conmebol. Our goalkeeper was sent off by the end of the match and a 19 years old striker took his place to save three penalty kicks and score his own.
Familiar faces
Midfielder Carlos Eduardo played for Hoffenheim and Rubin Kazan.
Star of the show
Carlos Eduardo is probably the most skilled player in the group. Staying up depends on his good performances.
Wild card
Keep na eye on Johnny Lucas (17 years old). The defensive midfielder has been called for the U20 Brazil national team and can develop his football skills a lot in 2018. Another youngster is Matheus Pereira, a Juventus player who is on loan at the club after a disappointing season in Bordeaux.
In the last couple of years, Santos has been one of the clubs that people don't expect big things of but keeps fighting for the top positions. This scenario repeats itself again this year due to having lost a couple of "important" pieces, with some pundits and specialists putting the club as the quarta força (fourth best) of SP. The club is going to have to find solutions inside the squad to overcome this status, as it is going through some financial trouble (as always) and big signings are basically discarded. So far, that's exactly what it has done, with almost every player in the squad having been tested as a starter (save from some useless bastards). A lot has changed since last year, with the club going through some major changes in the administration and coaching staff, and the performances on the pitch reflecting that instability, with the team alternating between some brilliant games with a lot of fight and some downright awful showings, where the team has looked lost and lazy. New manager Jair Ventura, brought in at the beginning of the year, has the faith of most fans due to making the Libertadores quarterfinals last year with a weak Botafogo squad, but even then there are some doubters, as his defensive style of play is not in Santos' DNA. As for the main players, the defense starts with Vanderlei, the best GK playing in Brazil, Daniel Guedes on the right side of defense, Lucas Veríssimo, a player that most fans didn't rate at all at the beginning of 2017, but made some major improvements since then, his clumsy CB partner David Braz, and Dodô on the left side, currently on loan from Sampdoria. Alison is the starting DM, famous for his heart and rough playing style. In front of him, there are some question marks, with many players having been tested in those positions but none establishing themselves as starters. Currently, those spots are being claimed by Léo Cittadini and Jean Mota, but a lot can change as the year goes on, as Vitor Bueno and Renato are not behind in the pecking order by much. The attack consists of Bruno Henrique, a flashy and fast winger, currently injured, being replaced by Rodrygo, a teenager that's being touted as the next big thing coming out of Santos, Eduardo Sasha, a player that has surprised even the most optimistic fans with his great performances, and Gabriel, the Gabigol. Fresh from a failed spell in Europe, if he puts his mind to working hard and chills a bit with the yellow cards, he can be a very important piece as the year goes on.
Fun fact
In 1969, Pelé's Santos briefly stopped a civil war in Nigeria.
Familiar faces
Gabriel. Perhaps the most recognizable player in the squad for many, the striker hopes to reestablish himself in his boyhood club and return to Internazionale at the beginning of next year stronger than ever.
Star of the show
Vanderlei. One of the two players responsible (along with Bruno Henrique) for the team's 3rd place finish in last year's tournament, the fans expect the keeper to maintain the level and keep on with his miraculous saves.
Wildcard
Rodrygo. The 17-year-old is yet another wonderkid from Santos' prestigious academy, and from what he has shown so far, he has a brilliant future ahead of him.
This will be the 10th season after São Paulo has lifted his third consecutive Brasileirão trophy, a feat that no other club has achieved in round-robin system in Brazil. Since then, the Tricolor Paulista has been living on its shadow, struggling to compete for the title. In the 9 seasons since, São Paulo went through ups and downs, with few top positions and culminating with the last two seasons were the club battled against relegation. In 2017, São Paulo had the help of Hernanes to finish in 13th position, the worst the club has recorded since 1998. It's no coincidence that these results are effects of the political turmoil the club has been living, with some questionable board changes, internal disputes and even corruption cases. This scenario, combined with a 5 year titleless, led São Paulo to be on constant pressure. In the months before, São Paulo has again faced some political backlash, causing major changes on football board, with the arrival of club past idols: Raí, Ricardo Rocha and the newly retired Lugano. The trio took the responsibility to put the club back on the titles' race. Soon after that, the team lose their two main players, Hernanes and Pratto. For 2018 season, the club bought keeper Jean, attackers Diego Souza and Tréllez, not to mention the arrival of winger Valdívia, defender Anderson Martins, left-back Reinaldo, and midfielders Hudson and Nene. Dorival Jr was unable to make the team competitive and was sacked after losing three derbys. For his position Diego Aguirre was hired, right before the club's knockout games on the Campeonato Paulista. The Uruguayan coach relied on heavy defensive work in semifinal but lose on penalty shootout, ending 3rd overall. With only six games so far, Aguirre's team is a mistery. To complicate things further, both Souza and Tréllez didn't meet the expectations and Cueva will hardly stay much longer. With new manager and many squad changes still happening, the starting team will be determined in the tournament. Fortunately, the team have some good disputes on his defensive side with Arboleda and Reinaldo being the only guaranted starters. The midfield, centered on Jucilei, will see a dispute between rising star Liziero and veterans Hudson and Petros. Souza and Nene will battle for Cueva's spot. Wingers M. Guilherme and Valdívia will aid the attacker that, at this point, could be Tréllez, Gonzalo Carneiro and even Souza, who knows?
Fun fact
According to the club's folklore, the white ball was created by one of São Paulo's employees who, tired of running behind brown leather balls in the woods, painted the ball white to help recover them.
Familiar faces
Nene. The 36-year old veteran has been, so far, a decent substitute to Cueva.
Star of the show
Cueva. The Peruvian will certanly departure after 2018 World Cup but until then, São Paulo will heavily depending on his talent to win.
Wild card
Liziero. The gifted 20-year-old defensive midfielder has gained a lot of spotlight after impressive performances in the last games of the Campeonato Paulista.
One of the most traditional sides in northeastern Brazil, Sport amasses a huge following, with polls finding their fanbase to be around 3 to 4 million strong, around the population of Uruguay. In addition to their immense following, the club is the most recent non-South/Southeastern club to have won a national title, having won the 2008 Copa do Brasil over juggernaughts Corinthians. Furthermore, for the past years, Sport has been considered an example of management, with the club in little to no debt, and being able to hold on to their players in spite of harassment from larger clubs. Throughout history it would not be out of place to consider the Leão da Ilha a mainstay of Brazil's elite division - in the past 10 seasons, Sport has been in Série A 7 times. Despite not being relegated, 2017 was not kind to the club. After winning the Campeonato Pernambucano, finishing second in the Copa do Nordeste and a surprisingly good first half of the Série A, Sport seamed to forget how to play football. In the second half, Sport only managed to amass more points than relegated side Ponte Preta, with a pitiful 29,8% of points made per game. Relegation was only narrowly escaped, in the final matches of the year, and the club ended up without even a Sulamericana spot for the first time since 2011. Things don't look better in 2018, as the club projects negative revenue for the season, finished third in the Campeonato Pernambucano and forfeited their Copa do Nordeste spot. A veteran manager with many titles in his resumé, including the very Copa do Brasil title that is Sport's greatest pride in recent years, Nelsinho Baptista is well known and trusted by the Sport board, dispite a lackluster start of the season. The team is going through renovations, with many players being swapped in the roster, Traditionally, Nelsinho favors a more defensive tactic, playing with 2 DMs, such as Anselmo, and exploiting counter-attacks with a fast midfield and effective strikers such as Éverton Felipe and Marlone.
Fun fact
Sport's 2008 upset win in the Copa do Brasil, thanks to the away goal rule, led to CBF no longer counting away goals in finals as of 2009.
Familiar faces
Marlone was a 2016 Puskas Award contender, when the forward was at Corinthians.
Star of the show
Magrão The most experienced and longest-serving player at Sport, keeper Magrão is seen by fans as one of if not the greatest legend in club history.
Wild card
Éverton Felipe Talented young player coming from the club's youth system, many fans have high hopes for his future.
Vasco went through some tough times through the last 5 years, being relegated to Série B in 2013 and 2015, political instability and less then ideal finances. One of the "Doze Grandes", Vasco looks to make another great campaign after guaraanteing a Copa Libertadores spot last year and to make the last 5 years nothing but a dark memory. This year, Vasco went through the qualifying stage of the Copa Libertadores, reached the Carioca Finals, only losing the title at the Shootouts after conceding a tie equalizing goal at the 90+4 minute of the second match, they look to repeat and even improve their campaign from last season. Even after losing important pieces from last year through the January window, manager Zé Ricardo rebuilt the team and went on to gather great results through the start of the year: Martin Silva leads the team from the back, the Uruguayan international is going through an amazing patch of form and is one of the main names on this roster, protected by the always contested Erazo and Paulão, with the goalscoring threat of the right back Yago Pikachu and the reliable left back Henrique. Deep on the midfield, former Velez Sarsfield player Leandro Desábato is one of the standouts of their season, alongside his partner on the double pivot Wellington, a box to box midfielder that was one of the important pieces last season, combining with the experience from the 12' Série A winner Wagner and the youth and talent that Evander and Paulinho offer, there's no way that Duvier Riascos lacks opportunities to score.
Fun fact
Vasco is famous in Brazil for being the club that first allowed black people to play without restraints.
Familiar faces
Paulinho is the most coveted young star in Brazil right now.
Star of the show
Also Paulinho, the 17-year-old is the spark of brilliance on Vasco attack, scoring in Libertadores matches and deciding "Classicos", unfortunely he's going to be out for 4 months after injuring his elbow.
Wild card
Giovanni Augusto just recovered from injury and is asking for his space on Vasco midfield.
After a last-minute saving goal at another game, and a movie-like escape from relegation, Vitória is trying to put 2017 behind. 2017 was a year to forget for them, with political crysis behind the scenes, failed signings and a lot of time spent in relegation zone. Now, Vitória aims a year without the relegation desperation, and, maybe, a spot at the sudamericana. Vitória had a solid Campeonato Baiano, leading the round-robin phase and winning easily against the lesser sides of the state. But, after the big brawl at the first derby against Bahia, they lost 5 starting XI players and the manager for the rest of the competition. That made the team look shaky, and was decisive for the title loss to Bahia. In other competitions, where the players aren't suspended, the team is doing just fine, ending the group stage at the regional cup in first and classifying for the 4th fase of the national cup. Vitória lost their wonder-kid David to Cruzeiro and their goalscorer Tréllez to São Paulo, and didn't sign any replacements for them, but promoted another kid, Denilson, to fill the void left by David. A signing from last year, Neilton, is showing a lot more now, with an impressive 13 goals in 20 games. And they still have Mancini, the manager who saved them last year, starting in a pretty dire situation, and he is a total idol in the club, and has the locker room and the directory total confidence. The team starts with Fernando Miguel, who has been under the bars for three years, protected by Kanu and Ramon, Kanu being a threat to the keepers at set pieces and known to score bunch of goals. At the left side, the newly signed Lucas, and the right, the fast Bryan, forming the backline. Midfield is defended by Uilliam Correa, one of the best players from last year, who commands the pace of the midfield after Willan Farias' injury, and Fillipe Soutto, who was signed to fill in for injured players last year, and is still doing that. The playmaking of the team is done by Neílton, who is also their most aggressive player. He has at his side Denilson, who started playing at the center of the attack, but was dragged to the side by Mancini, and Rhayner, another aggressive skilled dribbler. Leading the attack, Vitória has André Lima, an experient and opportunist goalscorer.
Fun fact
Vitória is the only team to get 2nd place at the first, the second, the third division and the national cup.
Familiar faces
With a squad consisting mainly of unknown players, foreign observers may not recognise any of the names on the squad.
Star of the show
Neílton is the hope of Vitória to win games, and the team is much weaker when he is not playing, since he is the main hope of scoring.
Wild Card
Luan, recently promoted from the youth team at 19 years old, scored a goal at the Campeonato Baiano finals, is making great appearances and the supporters ask for him to be starting, but Vitória's managers are trying to transition him slowly, but he has the potential to be a great player.
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![[Sports] - Grand National 2018 tips, odds and bets: Which of the runners should you back at Aintree on Saturday? | The Independent](https://b.thumbs.redditmedia.com/kk2jn1dLbQAM1khuHAz0QLo66ixbMQPJPS-6ui-im9Y.jpg "[Sports] - Grand National 2018 tips, odds and bets: Which of the runners should you back at Aintree on Saturday? | The Independent")
