Day Two Here
Day Three Here
Gettysburg is by far my favorite battle of all time.
First, it is an all-American battle in an all-American war, and myself being an old school nationalist it carries significance that other battles simply don’t; I may find Austerlitz or Stalingrad nifty, but nobody there was my people.
More, it was an extraordinarily clean fight. At any point, a soldier on either side could hurl down their rifle and grab some sky and be reasonably assured of having their surrender accepted without reservation, and for that matter their captor could rely on their new POWs to trudge back to the rear under light guard in good faith. Even though much of the fighting took place in an urban environment with embedded civilians, only one civilian died in the fighting. Let me tell you, the more military history you read up on, the clearer it is that massacring civilians before, during, and after a rough fight is par for the course. One might even say that butchering unarmed men, women and children of the enemy tribe is the de facto military objective more than half the time; it might be some weird, half instinctual, proto-game theory going on: “We told them to surrender or else. They didn’t surrender, we won anyway, and now there’s gotta be an ‘or else’ to persuade the next batch of holdouts that we mean business.” In the long run, butchering the first village usually made it morelikely the next three villages would get the message and surrender without a fight, saving the invaders men, materiel, and time. Or perhaps it’s that killing civilians has always been pure bloody-mindedness. But not at Gettysburg. Gettysburg is where the American platonic ideal of soldiers fighting soldiers and leaving the civilians be actually happened.
Another aspect to the battle that fascinates me is how utterly unplanned it was. Neither army had intended to fight there, and between the scale of the brawl, the rapidity of developments, the intransigence of their subordinates, and the communications lag, neither the Confederate general Lee nor the Union general Meade had a grip on the situation at all until the second day of the battle, and neither could enact their ideal plans until the third day. It was something of a clusterfuck for both sides, and the course of the battle depended on the initiative and guts of small unit commanders with little idea of what the big picture was.
Gettysburg tends to be remembered as the turning point in the war, when it stopped being a gallant passage at arms between roughly equal powers and started being a slow, painful inevitable grind towards Union victory. This is not exactly accurate; only with years of hindsight could anybody construct a narrative that framed this fight as the turning point, for at the time Gettysburg was seen as just another grisly slaughter yard in a long series of them. Still, between this fight and the conquest of Vicksburg out west, this does appear in hindsight to be the high watermark in terms of Confederate progress towards successful seccession. Certainly it was the last time any Confederate army went on the strategic offensive. For diehard secessionists (both during the war and in the years after), this was the last hurrah before the war started being truly hopeless.
It is also, I should mention, a place of spiritual significance for me. Myself being secular humanist with a vaccination against Protestantism from my younger days, I don’t have much in the way of codified religion. But when I was a youngin’ visiting relatives out east, I got to visit the battlefield. I found myself standing in front of a monument on the field on the north end of Herbst Wood (where the right flank of Iron Brigade stood and charged on the first day of the battle). It described how a Michigan regiment of about a thousand men stood on that spot and suffered two thirds casualties over the course of the day. I read the details on the monument, and stared up at the mustachioed rifleman staring defiantly to the west.
Looking left and right, I saw more monuments every fifty yards or so in a straightish line, spreading out to mark where a human line had once stood and bled. And I turned my back on the monuments to face away, and behold, I saw an opposing line of Confederate monuments stretched out horizon to horizon about a hundred yards away. Two lines, violently opposed but unmoving; courage and horror frozen into place forever. And the world there seemed very big, and very grand, and I felt very small and unworthy. The air was at once colder and hotter than any air I’d ever felt. The wind cut through my clothing and reminded me that flesh was mortal but spirit was eternal. This was holy ground, soil consecrated by blood. Shi’ite Muslims have Karbala. Catholics have the Road to Calvary. Australian aboriginals have Uluru. I have Gettysburg.
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BACKGROUND
A brief note- I will be including maps periodically to show the progression of the fighting. These maps must be taken with a grain or three of salt. They are intended to show relations between the armies and the terrain, not to mark the exact positions or dispositions of the units, nor to show an exact proportion of numbers involved. This is because I am not an expert mapmaker, and I thank you in advance for your understanding. First, a map of the northern part of the battlefield. Note how many roads lead there, and note the high ground of Cemetery Hill and Culp's Hill to the south of the town.
The Battle of Gettysburg happened because Lee needed to go on the offensive, and Lee needed to go on the offensive because of the big picture. I shall cover the broad outline just so the significance doesn’t pass anybody by.
The Confederacy in the Spring of 1863 was in a terrible dilemma. The leadership had two urgent problems, either one of which could (if unaddressed) destroy their enterprise, and to make things worse they didn’t have the resources to solve either of them alone without a miracle.
One, the Union was fixing to shove yet another army down Richmond’s throat. Two years of failed invasions into Virginia had been brutal to both sides, but the North had immense reserves of cash, food, industrial output, and manpower with which to replenish themselves, and the South simply didn’t. The Army of Northern Virginia on which every invasion thus far had broken was underarmed, underfed, and undermanned, and if these issues were not fixed then they’d be seeing Union soldiers in the Confederate capitol before Autumn. There had already been a push that year, which Lee had staved off at Chancellorsville. There was plenty of time left before winter for a second attack.
And two, Vicksburg, the railway hub that sat on the Mississippi River, was under dire threat. The Union had already grabbed New Orleans at the south end and pushed north up the river, and had been pushing south down the river since day one of the war, but Vicksburg prevented the whole river from falling in to Union hands. Vicksburg alone let the South shift resources and information from its Western half to its Eastern half. Losing it could be a death blow. The garrison of Vicksburg was also underarmed, underfed, and undermanned.
The fresh crops taken off the farm and the fresh host of new recruits also taken off the farm were middling at best. Even throwing all the resources they had at either problem and letting the other develop as it would might mean losing on both fronts. Splitting the resources in half to prop up both didn’t seem promising either. Lee, being something of a strategist, developed a third option. There was no point (he reasoned) in trying to prop up Vicksburg at this point- it would take weeks to shift reinforcements that far west, and by then it would be midsummer. If the siege lasted that long, either the garrison would fold or disease would rip through the Yankee army and drive it back home, as it had the last two years running. In either scenario, further support would affect nothing. Therefore, he proposed a bold plan- don’t sit around waiting to get hit in the face. Invade north. Take the fight onto their turf.
The more the Confederate leadership considered it, the better it sounded. Northern land hadn’t been ravaged like Virginia had- it would be easy to live off of the enemy’s food for once, thus lessening the headache of their constant supply problems. It was also an election year, and the anti-war Democrats were raging at the ocean of blood and gold being wasted on bringing States back into the fold who very clearly wanted to go their own way. One good, solid victory on Northern soil could tip the balance, drive home the point that that war was unwinnable. Get the Black Republican warmonger Lincoln kicked out of the White House, get a reasonable Democrat in, and next year they just might get a negotiated peace that would lead in time to true and recognized independence.
To which end-
Lee snaked his newly reinforced army of about 75,000 men up through the Shenandoah Valley, using the mountain range to mask his movements instead of using to well-worn direct route that the Union was camped on. He would end up north of the bulk of the Army of the Potomac, simultaneously threatening Washington D.C., Pittsburgh, Baltimore, and Philadelphia, which for a guy trying to score a symbolic victory to discourage the enemy voters put him in a pretty nice spot.
Lincoln freaked out, told Hooker and his Army of the Potomac to go out and beat Lee, to utterly destroy his army, and also not leave any weak point undefended, which are just the kind of orders one enjoys receiving. Hooker, having a bit of an ego and a poor history of getting his ass kicked by Lee, got into a feud with Lincoln’s advisors and impulsively offered his resignation as Commander of the Army of the Potomac following some stupid spat with the bean counters back in Washington. Lincoln called his bluff and fired him three days before the battle, putting General Meade in charge of the whole damn army with almost no prep time.
I should cut the narrative here to cast moral aspersions right quick. The Union were the good guys, and the Confederates were the villains. That said, the North made for really terrible heroes, and the South had more than its fair share of virtues. This was not a grand crusade of freedom-loving Yankees tearing down the moral abomination of human bondage. This was a brutal, no holds barred death struggle between the efficient new urban Industrial Revolution and the rural Cavalier latifundias. Only a smallish segment of New England Puritans and bleeding heart Quakers hated slavery on moral grounds- the rest of the North either hated it on financial grounds, didn’t give a fuck one way or another, or were actively supporting racial slavery. And on the flip side, most Southerners who fought in the war perceived quite accurately that outsiders were coming into their world to demand submission, and had decided to give these invaders the William Wallace treatment. This is a normal and admirable response that every healthy society should have in its toolbox, and in my not-even-slightly humble opinion it is a damn shame that so many people endured so much agony in support of so un-American a cause.
For you see, when Lee’s army reached Pennsylvania, they kidnapped every black person they could find, free or not, and sent them all south in chains. There was no attempt to ascertain their status by some legal due process, no splitting of hairs. The bare skeleton of Confederate ideology, the great Truth that would have snuffed out by continued political loyalty to the Union, had been that all men were not created equal. To be more precise, men had white skin, and anyone with black skin was not a man and did not have the rights of man. As such, anyone with black skin was to be sold into slavery and threatened with torture and death if they refused to labor in the cotton fields. The army that invaded the North was, in practice, the biggest slave-hunting gang that had ever set foot on American soil.
The side wearing grey were staunch defenders of a country based on the Ideal of Ethnic Supremacy, and the side wearing blue were fighting for a country based on the Ideal of Equality. There were a million nagging features of material reality in the South and the North that challenged both of these Ideals, but there were no Ideals to challenge these Ideals, save only for each other. We know that this is true, because as the war shifted away from a Federal attempt to rein in wayward states to an all out assault on the institution of slavery, more and more Northerners balked at the idea of dying to set niggers free; men who had fought for years to bring the rebels into the fold again threw down their rifles and went home in disgust after they heard of the Emancipation Proclamation. And as it became clearer that poor whites who never owned slaves were expected to die for plantation owners’ right to stay rich, fewer and fewer Southerners were willing to jump into the meat grinder feet first; many of them deserted to go home and form Unionist bushwhacker gangs instead. Speaking of the draft, a higher percentage of southerners dodged the Confederate draft than in Vietnam, yet Vietnam is remembered as a deeply unpopular war while the Lost Cause has painted the South as a unified bloc striving as one against the Yankee oppressor.
Also, the Confederacy had a draft imposed upon the states by its federal government. So, yeah, State's Rights. Tell me how that worked out.
To reiterate. Both sides are not the same. We are rooting for the Union. Slavery. Etc.
Pushing on-
The two armies surged northward, on parallel tracks with Lee on the west side of the Appalachians and Meade on the east side. Being critically low on recon drones and spy satellites, the only ways to find the enemy army was to send guys out on horseback to physically look at them before riding back, and to talk to locals whether they’d seen anyone wearing the other team’s uniform recently. Clouds of skirmishers, cavalrymen, and small detachments of infantrymen from either side scattered themselves in all directions, straining to catch a glimpse of the other army. The first side to locate the enemy, amass sufficient force, and maneuver against them would probably win, without regard for right or wrong.
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JULY 1st, 1863
Early Morning
General John Buford had a 2,500 strong brigade of cavalrymen patrolling southern Pennsylvania, being one of dozens of detachments sent out to find the enemy army. Using human intelligence from locals in Gettysburg, he learned that there was a column of rebel infantry marching down the Chambersburg Pike.
And indeed there was. Advance scouts from Buford’s brigade made visual contact with a column marching south towards Gettysburg. The ball was now rolling.
The story goes that the Confederates were looking for new shoes and heard that there was a stockpile in Gettysburg. As far as I can tell, this is a baseless legend- inspired by the true fact that the rebel army didn’t have enough shoes, but baseless nonetheless. The three Confederate commanders marching towards Gettysburg (Archer and Davis with a brigade apiece and Heth as division commander coordinating them), were simply doing what their counterpart was doing- reconnaissance in force, hoping to develop a lead for the rest of the army to follow. 7,000 infantry under Archer and Davis were about to pick a fight with 2,500 cavalrymen under Buford. The currents of this morning fight would provide the grooves for the next three days to follow.
Buford’s men fought as dragoons; the horse let you scoot around to where you need to go, but you got off it and fought on foot. They Union cavalry broke into tiny little four man teams to bloody the approaching Confederates’ noses. The terrain was a bushwhacker’s paradise- plenty of rocks and trees to hide behind, and plenty of low, rolling hills to speed off behind to break line of sight. One man would hold the horses while the other three crouch-ran forward under cover to pop off rounds into the enemy column from the sides of the road. When the enemy infantry redeployed from a fast moving but harmless column formation into a slow moving but dangerous line, the three shooters would run back to their buddy to mount up and retreat to a new position.
The cavalrymen were outnumbered nearly three to one, and their carbines had less range and power than the rebel rifles; then again, the terrain was working for them and their breechloading carbines could shoot much faster than the enemy’s muzzleloading long rifles. It was very close to being an fair fight, as long as the cavalry could stay mobile and keep their distance. Buford and Heth both had unclear, contradictory orders- “Push forward aggressively to locate the enemy, but do not enter into a general engagement until we know what we’re up against.” It was an order that must have made sense in the tent when Lee and Meade sent their own versions off. You wouldn’t want to force a battle until you knew the enemy’s location and disposition and the terrain you were going to be standing on, any more than you’d want bet it all on a poker hand before looking at your cards. But to the guys on the front line, it meant “charge forward, but do not charge forward. Attack, but do not engage. Show some initiative, but don’t pick a real fight.” Heth decided they were up against a skeleton crew of skirmishers, and he had orders to check out Gettysburg. He send riders back with a quick report and a request for reinforcements. Buford decided that if the whole damn rebel army was heading his way, he needed to delay their advance for as many hours as he could to give the rest of the Union army time to get to Gettysburg- the high ground south of the town looked like ideal terrain to fight from and he wanted his buddies to get there before the rebels. He too sent riders back with calls for help.
And meanwhile, the murderous, hazardous stalking of the rebel column continued as it trudged towards Gettysburg.
Meanwhile, in the Rear with the Gear
Imagine running a marathon- 26 miles and a bit from start to finish. That’s how spread out a Civil War army is, from vanguard to rear guard. You can’t really concentrate 75,000-100,000 people together that closely. Disease starts killing people off really fast, feeding everyone is a headache, and if you have to march out, the lead element will march all day before stopping for the night, while the rear element hasn’t even left camp yet. It’s unwieldy. So they all spread out to grab some real estate and forage easier and not choke on each others’ dust and crap.
The riders from the Chambersburg Pike were spreading the word through the marathon length of the armies. Units were halting, turning around. Captains and colonels and generals were consulting maps to figure out what roads to take to get south or north to Gettysburg from where they were now. Regiments were putting their heads to together to figure out whose company oughtta go in what order.
The movements were slow and and ungainly and awkward, but they were starting up.
Mid Morning to Noon
The rolling hills on either side of the Chambersburg Pike stopped at McPherson’s Ridge, a grand place to make a stand- plenty of cover, steep incline. In any case, there wasn’t much further to retreat to. Archer and David pushed the cavalrymen, Archer on the south side of the road and Davis on the north. Thoroughly annoyed infantrymen backed up on the Pike behind them, eager to get at the enemy but without frontage to occupy.
Buford dug in on McPherson’s Ridge, and the full force of Heth’s division slammed into him. Denied their mobility by the necessity of holding territory, the fair fight turned into a meat grinder for the dismounted cavalrymen. When Confederate artillery set up on Herr’s Ridge, it turned into a bloodbath.
Buford, at last, got in contact with somebody who outranked him. General John Reynolds, second in command of the whole Union army, rode ahead of his division to get eyes on the situation.
The two struck a deal in the middle of a firefight. Buford promised to hold to the last man, and Reynolds promised to reinforce him. It was an exercise in trust; if Buford’s men held firm and Reynolds let them down, they’d be swamped and slaughtered to a man, and if Buford’s detachment broke and scattered, Reynolds’ reinforcements would march directly into a line of hills held by an entrenched enemy force of equal size. Failure on either side would be fatal. Reynolds rode south again, leaving Buford and his dwindling cavalrymen to fend off 10% of the Confederate army all alone.
Meanwhile, Buford’s thin line was cracking. Outnumbered, outgunned, and unable to advance or retreat... That which was inevitable to start with was happening now. Davis’ brigade was pressing against Oak Ridge on the Union right, and Archer's was taking Herbst Woods tree by tree. Buford’s men were giving ground they couldn’t afford to lose. Confederate artillery was blasting giant holes in the ranks of the defenders.
That’s when the relief came- two fresh brigades of infantry coming up the Emmitsburg road, under generals Cutler and Meredith. Cutler got there first, taking up positions on Oak Ridge and straddling either side of the Pike with cannons. Their massive volleys disrupted Confederate momentum and silenced some of the rebels’ big guns as everyone scrambled for cover. Grateful and exhausted cavalrymen sidled off to the flanks to safety. Meredith’s brigade is still lagging behind- that’s the problem with columns, only the guys in front can do anything.
If Buford and Reynolds expected everything to be right in the world once reinforcements arrived, they were very much mistaken. Those men out there attacking up Oak Ridge were some of the finest infantrymen in the world- dedicated, disciplined, contemptuous of death. They did not stop being efficient killers just because they now fought peers instead of the hornet-like cavalry skirmishers. Cutler’s brigade was facing a small tidal wave of battle-maddened Southern veterans, and had no time to dig in and situate themselves before the moment of impact. Davis’ men ripped into them like a pack of starving wolves. Cutler’s men fell back to safety on the top of Oak Ridge. In pieces.
Meanwhile, Meredith’s brigade was finally in position to retake Herbst Woods on the south side of the road.
Now, Meredith’s brigade were the absolute elite of the Union army. They were the grizzled veterans, the old crew, the best drilled, the most experienced, the hardest of the hard. They were nicknamed the Iron Brigade, and the Black Hat Brigade, because they were authorized to wear dashing black foraging caps to signify their status as the best of the best. With their comrades north of the road falling back, it was imperative that the Black Hat Brigade protect their left flank. To which end, Reynolds frantically snapped orders for them to line up and charge Archer’s men who were occupying Herbst Wood.
Their charge was met by a storm of musket fire that churned the Iron ranks into blood and guts. But this was the Black Hat Brigade. For them, taking ten percent casualties in a single minute was just another Tuesday. They got in close to the rebel line to return the volleys with a vengeance, and then charged with the bayonet. Archer’s men saw the distinctive black hats come for them through the musket-smoke. For the first time, they realized that these were no mere cavalry skirmishers, no half-assed militia company facing them. The best of the best of the Army of the Potomac was coming at them at terrifyingly close range. Archer’s men cracked and scattered. The ones who stood firm, died. The ones who threw down their rifles and grabbed sky were allowed to live as prisoners. The ones who ran, lived, but found the Iron Brigade hot on their heels. Meredith’s elites carved through Archer’s brigade like it wasn’t even there.
Reynolds was a good leader. A great one, in fact. He was decisive, experienced, competent. Many thought he should have gotten command instead of Meade. As his men retook Herbst Wood, he turned behind him to check on how close reinforcements were, some rebel rifleman did his cause a world of good, and shot Reynolds in the back of the head.
Now the situation got pretty weird- Davis’ brigade had kicked the shit out of Cutler’s brigade and was pursuing them on the north side of the road, and the Iron Brigade had kicked the shit out of Archer’s brigade and was pursuing them on the south side of the road. Neither victor was aware of what had happened across from them, and soon enough they would pass each other by almost touching the edges of their lines. The first one to figure out what was happening would get to win.
As it so happened, General Doubleday (in command now that Reynolds was dead) saw the danger and the opportunity first. He broke off an Iron regiment from his reserve to swoop in and protect the flank just in time, setting them up in a defensive stance facing the road. That regiment was joined by another broken off from the Iron assault, and yet another from Cutler’s brigade, who had seen the maneuvering and joined in on its own initiative. It was like a ballet, all three regiments coalescing into a single front facing north across the road, as though they’d spent the last week rehearsing. Under their protection, the rest of the Black Hats gave chase to their prey.
When Davis finally turned and attacked, they were chopped down by a mass of highly accurate fire from the newly entrenched men. Confederates died by the dozens and were maimed by the score. As they reloaded, the Black Hats were astonished to find that the whole Confederate brigade vanish into thin air, like magic. The firing stopped; no more targets. It was bizarre.
The three regiments advanced cautiously. And were gutted by a close range surprise volley by the hidden Confederates as they tried to scale the fences on either side of the Pike.
It turns out that there was a cut in the side of road, deep enough for a man to jump down into with only his head able to peek out. Davis’ men had leapt into it as a source cover when the firefight started and found it was a grand place to shoot out of. But it was also a death trap. Once the Union regiments figured it out, they got in close enough to fire blindly down at point blank range into the milling mass of men.
Davis’ men surrendered, thousands of them all at once. Unable to move, unable shoot back, it was really the only choice. And with that, the first round of Gettysburg was over. Oak Ridge and Herbst Wood had held, and about 150,000 odd soldiers were converging on Gettysburg to shift the tide of war this way and that.
AFTERNOON
The rest of the first day was not free of drama, and heroics, and mass suffering. But it was free of surprises. The iron laws of physics had decreed that more Confederate units would be on hand for the fighting in the afternoon, and so it was. Fresh rebel troops swept down from the north and from the west, relieving their exhausted comrades and preparing themselves to assault Oak Ridge and Herbst Woods. Fresh Union troops arrived from the south to reinforce what they had and to extend their line out east, protecting their right flank and screening off the town itself.
Hours passed without a shot being fired. Everybody was reorganizing themselves, resupplying, carting the wounded to the rear to let the surgeons saw their shattered limbs off. Two small things happened that delivered a Confederate victory on day one, and a Union victory on day three. Union General Barlow pushed his brigade out to occupy Blocher's hill, and Union General Steinwehr plopped two of his brigades on top of Cemetery Hill. The first created a huge gap in the Union right, and the second secured the invaluable high ground for the rest of the battle.
Meanwhile, three Confederate divisions set themselves up for a concerted attack- Heth would press into Herbst Wood on the Union left, Rodes would assault Oak Ridge at the center, and Early would swoop down the Harrisburg road to threaten the Union right. When the big push came at around 2 p.m., it was badly organized and mismanaged. Southern commanders couldn't get it together and attack at the same time. Individual units charged at Oak Ridge alone, like a mob of Hollywood henchmen attacking the hero only to be smacked around one by one. Cutler's men didn't just fight them off; it was closer to mass murder. General O'Neal's brigade swooped down off of Oak Hill only to be cut down by musketry and cannon fire, and they did it without O'Neal, because O'Neal stayed in the rear while his men died. When O'Neal's brigade fell back having suffered heavy losses, Cutler shifted his men to greet the new threat from Iverson's brigade, who also charged without their commander. Iverson's men marched in parade perfect order across open ground, without so much as a molehill for cover. The story goes that during the assault, Iverson looked out from safety and saw half his men lying down on the ground. Iverson was pissed off because he thought his men were surrendering. In fact, he was watching his brigade die in droves.
The issue wasn't morale. The Confederate troops were eager to get at the enemy. The problem was purely organizational in nature. The men in charge of telling people what to do were simply too confused and disoriented to work out the solution in real time. While O’Neal and Iverson were getting bloodied, Barlow’s men on Blocher Hill were getting slaughtered. Barlow’s desire to hold the high ground on the defense was understandable- high ground being a grand place to fight from- but he was about one mile ahead of any friendly units. This meant that it was trivially easy to flank and destroy his brigades.
Georgia men under generals Early and Rodes linked up to flank and destroy Barlow’s isolated brigades. A thick stream of filthy, bloody, and terrified Union men flowed back to the town of Gettysburg, leaving a gaping hole in the Union line and spreading their panic like the plague. Victorious Confederates whooped and hollered. As the men to the north of town trade massacres- the failed assault on Oak Ridge being roughly balanced by the disastrous dissolution of Barlow’s brigades- Heth finally attacked the Iron Brigade still occupying Herbst Wood in the west. He’d been delaying it all afternoon, stymied by the contradictory orders from Lee. Lee, who was several miles away and not at all in touch with the situation, still wanted to avoid a general engagement. But now, Heth has been let off the chain to avenge Archer’s brigade.
Heth’s full division attacked Herbst Wood. It was a slow, hot, gory fight. The attacking rebels are aggressive, but also methodical and well-organized. The Black Hats made them pay for every tree they seized. But there’s only one outcome for a fight like this.
The Iron Brigade has the ghastly honor of having the highest casualty ratio of any Civil War brigade, North or South. Out of the 1,885 men in their ranks that morning, 1,153 (61%) were be dead or maimed by nightfall on the first day. The fates of individual units from within the brigade are even more gruesome- in the 2nd Wisconsin regiment, 397 out of 496 (80%) were killed or wounded. But despite the horrific losses, they didn’t break. They gave ground slowly and in good order, but they gave ground nonetheless. Iron does not break, but it does bend.
By late afternoon, the dominoes fell as they were always going to. With the debacle at Blocher’s Knoll, any hope the Union had to hold the right was lost. The Black Hats were being ground into sawdust on the left. And Rodes has finally gotten his brigades to charge at the same time, overwhelming Cutler’s defense.
Every Union man was running now, some in a blind panic, some withdrawing in good order like professionals.
The open field battle turned into urban warfare as the Confederates chased the Union army through the streets of Gettysburg. Companies blocked the streets to hold off the enemy advance long enough for the comrades to scamper. Marksmen played sniper games in the windows, either shooting men in the back as they ran away or ambushing overly aggressive platoons, depending on the color of their uniform.
The Union men were desperate to reach Cemetery Hill, south of the town. High ground and the reinforcements already stationed there promised safety. The Confederates were just as desperate to catch them first and seize that invaluable terrain for themselves.
Nightfall
A great deal of “woulda coulda shoulda” ink has been spilled over the orders that Lee gave to General Ewell, the man in charge of Rodes and Early: “Take Cemetery Hill if practical”. But Ewell saw two brigades with a lot of artillery standing on top of what appeared to be a natural fortress designed by God to repel infantry, and his men were exhausted to boot. Ewell decided it was not practical, and so did not try. Just one of those things, I expect.
In any case, the day was a Confederate victory. Every spot on the map the Confederate troops wanted to go, they had went. They had crushed all resistance, had even gone toe to toe with the cream of the Army of the Potomac and won. Their enemies were in flight before them.
There was, possibly, a certain amount of disquiet because the enemy had merely been driven from one ridge into another ridge, one even steeper and with more cover than the last. And rumor had it the rest of the Army of the Potomac was coming at them.
But that was a problem for the next day.

Manchester United

by CrebTheBerc

Welcome to the triumphant return of the Premier League Previews, a series where a fan gives an overview of his team for your perusal, and I get an excuse to take pot-shots at other clubs. This will run until the eve of the Premier League, taking a look at each club in turn. Today we're with the most successful team in English domestic football, Manchester United.
About

Established: 1878
Stadium: Old Trafford
Capacity: 74, 879
Official website
Wikipedia page
Club subreddit

Last season

Pos	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Points
6	38	19	9	10	65	54	+11	66

Last season started off with a bang as we quickly sealed the double transfers of Diogo Dalot and Fred. Unfortunately the rest of the transfer window was a shit show as we chased targets the board wouldn't sanction the funds for (Ironic now I know) and Mourinho quickly descended into his infamous 3rd season meltdown.
Early signs were there as we lost 3-1 to Brighton in the second week with individual defensive errors key to the loss, followed by a comprehensive 3-0 loss to Tottenham featuring Ander Herrera as a CB. Mixed results followed culminating in a fantastic 3-2 comeback against Newcastle which many speculated save Mourinho's job with rumors circulating that he was on the edge. We then went on a run of 9 games that saw us win 3, draw 4, and lose to both City and Liverpool. For anyone who somehow didn't see the Liverpool game, it was the most lifeless performance I've seen from a United team. We conceded 36 shots, more than last place Huddersfield did over both of their games against Liverpool last season, and Mourinho was sacked the following day.
Ole Gunnar Solskjaer took over as a caretaker and went on an incredible 11 game unbeaten streak including wins against Tottenham and Arsenal. We managed a fantastic comeback against PSG in the Champion's League off the back of a controversial penalty and Ole was signed on permanently to many fan's delight. Unfortunately the season again went to shit. In our final 9 run of games we barely beat Watford and West Hame while losing 5, drawing 2, and getting knocked out of the FA cup and CL with mostly poor performances.
At the end of last season most fans seemed to want Ole backed in the transfer market along side an experienced DoF appointment. Assuming those two things happened I think most fans were cautiously optimistic, especially with Chelsea's ban and Arsenal's financial situation.

This season

As things stand the expectations for the next season are somewhat precariously balanced. We've addressed 2 huge issues in the team transfer wise with Aaron Wan-Bissaka and Harry Maguire (deal yet to be finalised) shoring up the defense and Dan James joining as a depth option on the wing. We are currently linked heavily to Paulo Dybala and Mario Mandzukic to a lesser extent. Bringing in Dybala would definitely improve the team and Mandzu would turn the window into a major positive.
We still have a lot of issues however. Despite winning all of our preseason games there are massive questions in midfield. Pogba remains our only creative option and Scott McTominay has stepped up as his undisputed partner in a double pivot. Outside of those two our options are extremely limited. Matic has continued to regress and has looked very poor, Pereira is better farther forward and overall hasn't offered a ton, and Fred is far too inconsistent in his performances. We desperately need a midfield reinforcement which looks unlikely to arrive. RW is also a concern, however we seem determined to wait for Jadon Sancho so we will make due with a variety of options there.
To turn to the positive, several of our players look much improved from last season such as Anthony Martial who's work rate has been praised in preseason. Our young stars have also shone and look ready to hopefully contribute this season. Regardless, this will be another transitional year for us, although hopefully we stick to a plan this time. The board seem prepared to back Ole long term and play the long game, however I don't think any United fan really trusts Woodward or the Glazers so who the fuck knows what will happen.
For now I think most United fans would be happy with the summer assuming we bring in Dybala, with the note that we need a winger and midfielder next season. From there I think we'll have to see if our performances can improve from the end of last season and figure out what to do if they don't. The main goal is top 4 and decent cup runs with youth involved.
Transfers
Highlights

Player	Type	From	To	Fee(£m)
Daniel James	Transfer	Swansea City	Manchester United	18 million
Aaron Wan-Bissaka	Transfer	Crystal Palace	Manchester United	45 million

All incoming/outgoing transfers Full 2019-20 squad
3 players to watch out for
Aaron Wan-Bissaka
We've been crying out for a proper right back for a while now and in his appearances so far he's looked very impressive. He's a wall in defense and has showed good moments of quality forward, combining well with Pogba too. I know it's only preseason but he already looks to have filled a huge hole in the squad.
Scott McTominay
Scotty has become something of a fan favorite recently, he keeps things simple but does them very well. Since impressing in the second half of last season he has kept his upwards trajectory and in many fans opinion has earned a starting spot to start the season.
Marcus Rashford
Fell out of form and carried an injury to finish the season, but looks energetic and hungry this preseason. Whether he starts out wide or up top is kind of up in the air(and maybe moot as our front 3 will be flexible), but we have high hopes he'll continue developing and break his current scoring record(13) this season
Honorable Mention: Mason Greenwood
The 17 year old looked extremely composed in our final game of the 18/19 season and has continued that in preseason. With the RW spot open and his performances so far, he may be in line to have somewhat of a breakout season this year
What the fans think
Thanks to /Reddevils for their help.

How do you think this season will go?

We will finish top 4, but not very comfortably and we'll lose some big games (Liverpool, City) by quite a lot. In Europa League some kids who at first won't play in the Prem will shine and become first team players, whilst gradually phasing out older ones. Ole will finish the season as our manager and everyone will expect bigger things in the next one.

SloGeorge

better than some think, not as good as others think but lots of people will be pissed off. It will be very tough breaking the top 4 but with consistency we can do it. I will say a fourth place finish and no trophies. I consider that a fantastic season for us atm.

Caesar3890

We are all hyped and I think we have made some of the right moves in terms of transfers and our ambition in style of play, but I still think we will have some woeful performances and make it a fight to finish top 4. Pogba will drive us all mad but somehow still be statistically our best player, we wont finish the transfer window as we hope and we will still have obvious problems that just wont be addressed properly - OGS has a lot of pressure to make it work and make it work fast.

bell-91

Which player is going to be your star of the season and why?

Wan-Bissaka, Two-Bissaka, Three-Bissaka, four. Having an actual right side will do wonders

its-pepsiman

Paul Pogba. On his day, he’s the best midfielder in the league (and maybe the world). I think he’ll be playing in a double pivot with McTominay, but with less defensive responsibilities then when he was in the pivot under Mou. He’ll probs be playing box to box, his best position I think, and should score up a range of assists considering he’s easily our most creative player. I expect a 25 g+a season from Paul.

ItchaBoiSid

I think Rashford is going to have a really good season and repay the faith Ole has shown in him. This is going to be his first full season as the main striker so I think he will have a 20 goal season

Mark_12201

How do you think the team will line up?

4-2-3-1 - this is assuming we sign Maguire. I would also expect to see a new signing in the no10 position, most likely Dybala, in for Mata. Lingard probably the least nailed-on out of the rest of the lineup (James and Greenwood will challenge for that spot) and Matic could fade as the season goes on with McTominay and Fred ready to come in. The rest of the team basically picks itself right now.

Skeletonise

Either in a 4-3-1-2 with Martial and Rashford spliting out wide with an attacking midfielder pressing and playing like a false nine. Or in a 4-2-3-1 with inside forwards. Against more defensive teams you would expect Mata to start and in bigger matches Lingard would be more likely to feature somewhere. In both systems expect Martial and Rashford to be totally fluid and swap positions a lot. In the Europa League and League Cup expect a lot rotation and chances for youngsters such as Tuanzabe in defence, Chong on the wing, Gomes as a 10/winger and Greenwood as a striker.

Pasta_is_quite_nice

De Gea, AWB, Lindelof, Maguire, Shaw, Pogba, McTominay, Mata(maybe Dybala), Lingard, Rashford, Martial
is how I feel we'll start the first few months but by the end I wouldn't be surprised to see Greenwood or Gomes in that team.

tocitus

Wrap Up

by NickTM
The Manager: Remember how Man Utd started the season with Jose Mourinho in charge? Remember how Ole Gunnar Solskjær came in and put together such an impressive list of results? Remember how Manchester United then locked him down to a three year contract after every fan in the world plus every ex-United player in the media was so jubilantly calling him the second coming? Remember how that form immediately turned to shit, winning only two more league games from then 'til the end of the season? God, that was fun, wasn't it?
The Team: Lacking talent has not been Manchester United's major issue over the past couple of seasons despite their lack of Premier League titles to show for it. Victor Lindelöf and Chris Smalling - and, one would imagine, Harry Maguire too soon - protect David de Gea, who remains one of the best goalkeepers in the world despite a down year by his lofty standards last season. Aaron Wan-Bissaka has taken a step down in terms of club prestige to generously help out Manchester United at right back, allowing the Ashley Young as starting right back era to gracefully come to a close. Luke Shaw looks to have finally locked down his spot on the left of defence after first being dropped and then subsequently dropping some weight under Mourinho. Nemanja Matic still patrols the defensive midfield - albeit with less effectiveness than in the past - alongside Paul Pogba, whose ongoing angst about getting paid obscene amounts of money to play for one of the biggest clubs in the world wore thin months ago. Up front, Jesse Lingard and Anthony Martial support a striker, although whether that's going to be Romelu Lukaku or Marcus Rashford remains to be seen. It's a strong squad with, crucially, a lot of depth; Eric Bailly, Alexis Sanchez, Juan Mata, Marcos Rojo, Fred, Diogo Dalot, Scott McTominay, Daniel James, Matteo Darmian and Phil Jones are just some of the squad options, offering a wealth of experience and quality. Issues still remain in areas of midfield, but there should be enough there to challenge anyone on the pitch.
Why to like them: Juan Mata. Aaron Wan-Bissaka's a good South London lad.
Why to dislike them: If you're not English, it's difficult to sum up the depth of feeling generated by Manchester United. The most effective way I've found is this: they're the Dallas Cowboys. They're the New York Yankees, the Los Angeles Lakers, the Ferrari, the All Blacks, the Roger Federer if Federer was a dickhead, the Australia cricket team circa about 2007, the Floyd Mayweather, the Jon Bones Jones. That alone should get you to dislike them.
Now, to hate them, I'm not certain it's possible unless you grew up in England during Manchester United's dominant years in the past two decades. At least a third of the kids in your class would be Man Utd fans, whether you lived next to the stadium or in Land's End. They were, of course, obnoxious in the extreme, flaunting their plasticity for all to see and preening themselves in the reflection of their team's dominance. Now, that's just kids being kids, sure, but the issue is it kept going when they were adults. Hundreds of them, everywhere, chatting bollocks about how Federico Macheda was going to be the next Van Nistelrooy and having their eyes glaze over when you mention you support a club not in the Premier League. These hordes of milquetoast, half-and-half scarf wearing bellends decrying how unfair it was that Chelsea were spending so much money, and no, it's fine that Man Utd do the same because we earnt it, you see. Never mind Manchester United were one of the earliest examples of getting artificial investment via John Henry Davies funding their entire 80,000 capacity stadium for free, giving them a huge competitive advantage in the nascent era of football that established the future trajectories of so many clubs. Oh, and of course it's fine for them to bash Chelsea and Man City and what have you, but the moment anyone says a word against precious Manchester United it's all "jealousy" and that most vacuous and vapid of rallying cries, "hated, adored, never ignored", a pathetic and overplayed attempt to spin other peoples' dislike into a positive like a thin-skinned, emoji-obsessed athlete on Twitter.
And then there's the wailing and gnashing of teeth when the team they supported because they were good fails to win anything, oh dear lord. If you've never been in a bar filled with Manchester United fans when they fail to win a game then good grief that needs to be on your bucket list. You'd assume the walls were about to cave in and planes to drop out of the sky with the amount of angst on display. They treat it like it's their god-given right to be winning football games and any calmer or more rational voice is immediately drowned out by the chorus of "but we're MANCHESTER UNITED", as if being good ten years ago guarantees you success for the rest of eternity and being a 'big team' means losing is somehow completely unacceptable on any level. Their tiny plastic brains proceed to melt out of their ears and thousands across the country drop dead, with nothing of value lost.
Summary: Think I blacked out for a moment there. Anyway, you'd assume Man Utd could capitalise on some of the issues from the sides that finished higher than them - Chelsea's transfer ban, Arsenal's failure to address a leaky defence - are having at the moment. On top of that, they also don't have to contend with Champions League football, and although they're back in the Europa League for the first time since 2015-16 (in which they won it) it's quite a different beast and you'd expect key players to be able to get more of a rest. If De Gea can find his form again, if Harry Maguire lives up to his transfer fee and doesn't end up the next in a long line of underperforming Manchester United centre-back signings, and most importantly if Ole Gunnar Solskjær can prove his worth as a manager in a season that will likely prove the litmus test then the sky's the limit. It's a team capable of challenging for the title with a bit of luck and a few wobbles from the teams above them. Whilst that isn't that likely, you definitely wouldn't bet against a top four finish, and signs are that that'd be considered a pretty successful season all considered.

Links

The bullpen has always been a aspect critical to a baseball team’s success. An eight inning gem from the starting pitcher could be wasted in less than an inning. Or the bullpen could get a team out of a jam after the bases get loaded. The importance of a competent bullpen cannot be overstated. Now with pitch count limitations, innings restrictions, and matchup analytics bullpen usage is at an all time high. Some teams have even begun to use the “opener” approach, leaving entire games to bullpens. Many times the best advantage of using the bullpen is the fact that the hitters haven’t seen the reliever that game, similar to a starter’s first time through the order, where pitching statistics are typically better as opposed to a pitcher’s second and third time through the order. This has led to a large emphasis and big time spending on bullpens. The Tampa Bay Rays and New York Yankees are two of the most notable teams when it comes to talking about bullpens. Tampa Bay was the first team to use the new “opener” approach and they use it regularly while having one of the highest usage rates in the league. New York, although their relievers missed time due to injuries, field a bullpen that includes Aroldis Chapman, Adam Ottavino, Dellin Betances, Zack Britton, Chad Green, and Tommy Kahnle among others. With bullpen talent as stacked as that, it’s no wonder their usage rate is so high. These are just two examples of the recent trend toward being bullpen reliant.
Although bullpens were all the rage on the free agent and trade markets, the Washington Nationals, who already had Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg on the payroll, added another top line starting pitcher in Patrick Corbin while also adding an underrated Anibal Sanchez. The Nats paid out around $88M between Scherzer, Strasburg, Corbin, and Sanchez, and it payed off in a big way resulting in the teams first ever world series championship. Their world series counterpart, the Houston Astros, had a similar makeup with Justin Verlander, Gerrit Cole, Wade Miley, and Zack Greinke whom they got in the trade deadline blockbuster with the Diamondbacks. Despite the shift toward heavy bullpen reliance, starting pitching can still be the driving force in a teams success. Of course, coupled with competent offense and relief pitching that is. After the Indians, Nationals, and Astros recent success, there will likely be a future trend of spending money on starting pitching.
You can take that information as you please. If a starting pitcher is pitching well, he’s more likely to throw later into the game, that’s common sense. Unless you’re the Phillies then Aaron Nola gets pulled after 5 1-hit innings just for the bullpen to blow it (sorry Phillies fans). So if a starting pitcher can effectively eat up innings, the team typically sees more success because there’s less usage on the bullpen and, quite frankly, less of a chance for the bullpen to blow it (Sorry bullpens). It also allows to bullpen to get some rest every once in a while. To illustrate this point, I’m going to show you some numbers over the last 5 seasons.
Over the last 5 seasons, there have been 29 teams to have 3 or more starting pitchers throw at least 175 innings (I know it seems like an odd number but bear with me). Of those 29 teams, 25 of them went on to finish .500 or better (86.2%), 17 of them made the postseason (58.6%), six of them one 100 or more games (20.69%), and 4 of them were world series finalists (13.79%), 2 being WS champs and 2 being runner up. The 4 teams that finished with a losing record, and weakened this 5 year correlational case, were the 2015 Padres, 2015 White Sox, 2016 Rays, and 2019 White Sox. If we take this a step further and look at teams who have had 3 pitchers throw at least 200 innings, it narrows it down to 4 teams, and 3 of those 4 made the playoffs, the only one not to make the postseason being the 2015 White Sox. It’s not a large sample size, but based on the correlation of the 175 innings stat, 200 innings would only improve. The three teams that made the playoffs were the 2016 Giants, 2018 Astros, and 2019 Astros. The Nationals would have reached this mark in 2019 as well if not for Scherzer's injury.
Disclaimer: Having a starting pitcher reach 175 innings can’t be a conscious goal in one’s mind. Just because a team has 3 pitchers throw 175 innings, it doesn’t mean they’ll be good. Especially if they’re all throwing at a relatively high ERA. Innings are a good barometer for starting pitching quality because if a starter is pitching well, he will pitch later into the game, thus resulting in 175+ innings. It just happens, it isn’t cause and effect. It’s a correlation.
Quality is important when discussing starting pitching, but quantity certainly has a lot of value. If it’s not clear yet, quantity and quality are dependent upon each other in baseball, quantity is not achieved without stable quality.
Below are the teams with 175+ innings from 3+ pitchers over the last 5 years.
\*- WS finalists
*\*- WS champs
x- playoff team
(#)- number of games won
(200)- teams with 200+ innings from 3+ starters
There was a miscue in the typing, for some reason it’s showing 5 asterisks, they denote World Series participants.
2015
San Diego Padres (74)
Toronto Blue Jays (93x)
Los Angeles Dodgers (92x)
Chicago Cubs (97x)
Chicago White Sox (76) (200)
San Francisco Giants (84)
New York Mets***** (90x)
Cleveland Indians (81)
Washington Nationals (83)
St. Louis Cardinals (100x)
2016
San Francisco Giants (87x) (200)
Chicago Cubs****** (103x)
Tampa Bay Rays (68)
St. Louis Cardinals (86)
Kansas City Royals (81)
Washington Nationals (95x)
Toronto Blue Jays (89x)
New York Yankees (84)
2017
Cleveland Indians (102x)
Washington Nationals (97x)
2018
Colorado Rockies (91x)
Houston Astros (103x) (200)
Cleveland Indians (91x)
Arizona Diamondbacks (82)
2019
Washington Nationals****** (93x)
Houston Astros***** (107x) (200)
New York Mets (86)
Chicago White Sox (72)
Los Angeles Dodgers (106x)
The average number of wins between these teams came out to 89.41 wins. However, the only thing I’ve truly learned in my college statistics course is that when you have outliers from a set of numbers (Like the 68 win Rays and 72 win White Sox), it is typically better to use the median value (the middle value) which was 90. So it didn’t make a large difference but there’s a free lesson in statistics. Now I acknowledge that 90 wins, especially in the current AL, isn’t a playoff lock, but that’s where the stat that 58.6% of teams comes into play. It shows that in the current league environments, these teams make the playoffs more times than not. In 2019 3 of the 5 teams made the postseason, while the Mets were also making a playoff push.
High end starting pitching can significantly help a teams push toward a postseason berth, and the best thing about baseball is that, in October, anything can happen. Of course, as earlier mentioned, the team must also have a competent offense and bullpen to be successful, but over the last five seasons, there is a strong correlation between high end starting pitching and relative team success.
With that being said, here are some free agents that could help some teams establish that high end starting pitching.
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Gerrit Cole
Cole was one of the most dominant pitcher in the majors last season, finishing second in the AL Cy Young award voting. He was 3rd in ERA and 2nd in WHIP while leading the league in strikeouts. When it comes to statcast metrics Cole was in the 94th percentile in curveball spin rate, 96th percentile in opponent slugging, 99th percentile in strikeout percentage, 96th percentile in fastball spin rate, and 97th percentile in opponent batting average. Cole also posted a 6.9 WAR in 2019 and a 5.2 WAR in 2018. In addition, Cole threw 212.1 innings last season, making him an ideal option to be the ace of a rotation. There’s not much more to say in regards to Gerrit Cole’s recent performance. If Cole does have one downfall however, it’s the deep ball. He gave up 29 of them last season. It’s no secret that Cole is going to command a very luxurious contract, and will generate interest from any team willing to pay.
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Hyun-Jin Ryu
Ryu threw 182.2 innings in 2019 while posting a 2.32 ERA (led the majors), which was good enough to earn him a 2nd place finish in Cy Young award voting. He also posted a 1.97 ERA over 82.1 innings in 2018 where he dealt with an injury which is why he only threw 82.1 innings. With a 5.1 WAR in 2019, Ryu, along with Walker Buehler and Clayton Kershaw, helped propel the Dodgers to 106 wins. Ryu’s most impressive quality is that he excels at inducing weak contact as he finished in the 74th percentile in opponent slugging percentage, 88th percentile in hard hit percentage, and 96th percentile in opponent exit velocity. The ability to miss barrels could travel to any ball park, no matter how hitter friendly it is. There are rumors that Ryu would really like to stay in LA, although no matter where he goes, he’s expected to get a short term deal with a fairly nice salary.
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Stephen Strasburg
The World Series MVP. Strasburg has always been an electric pitcher when healthy, however only twice in the last 5 seasons has Strasburg eclipsed 150 innings. However in 2019, Strasburg posted 209 innings pitched (led the NL) and 251 strikeouts (6th in all of baseball). Strasburg posted a 6.5 WAR while also ranking high in the statcast percentiles. He finished in the 84th percentile in strikeout percentage, 86th percentile in curveball spin rate, 91st percentile in opponent slugging percentage, and 85th percentile in opponent batting average. Strasburg recently opted out of his current deal with Washington, figuring to land a larger contract. Whether or not he will remain in Washington is uncertain.
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Madison Bumgarner
The San Francisco Giants legend. Many thought Bumgarner would have been traded at last season’s trade deadline but the Giants got on a hot streak right before the deadline so they kept their roster in-tact for the most part. Bumgarner is still one of the better southpaws in the league and is as sturdy as they come. He consistently finishes toward the top of the league in WHIP, innings pitched, and strikeouts. In 7 of his 10 seasons, Bumgarner has thrown at least 200 innings, despite 2017 and 2018 being shortened by injury. Bumgarner’s market is unclear, he likely won’t fetch as much as Strasburg, Ryu, or Cole (at least on a per year basis), but he will be a very nice piece for a team looking to make a serious push should he choose to leave San Francisco. The White Sox and Twins have been said to have ramped up their pursuits of Bumgarner after missing out on Zack Wheeler.
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Zack Wheeler (Signed with Phillies, 5 years/$118M)
Another hot name during this past seasons trade deadline, Wheeler has been flat out dominant at times in his career, showing flashes of what he was expected to develop into when he was taken 6th overall in the 2009 draft. After struggling in the first half of the season, Wheeler lit it up in the second half finishing the season with a 1.68 ERA over 75 innings before being shut down by his manager (the Mets were out of playoff contention). He didn’t exactly repeat is 2018 second half performance in 2019, however he still had a solid season. His fastball velocity is in league’s 99th percentile while he also exceled at limiting hard contact finishing in the 82nd and 90th percentile in hard hit percentage and exit velocity, respectively. So long as he’s healthy, he’s also a lock to eclipse 180 innings per year. The 29 year old flamethrower has been a hot name early in 2019 free agency and has already generated interest from about half the league (literally).
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Dallas Keuchel
Keuchel has finished with a 3.74 ERA over the last two seasons, with 2019 being shortened as the southpaw didn’t sign until after the season had commenced. Since 2014, he has only had an ERA 4.0 or higher once (2016, the year after his Cy Young award). Keuchel is not a strikeout pitcher, so fluctuations in ERA will happen. Despite not being a strikeout pitcher, Keuchel does very well to command ground balls, which travels well to any ball park. I recognize that the lefty didn’t throw but 112 and 2/3 innings last season, but that was over only 19 starts. That’s an average of 5.93 innings/start. When healthy, most starting pitchers start around 32 games per year, and at a clip of 5.93 innings/start, Keuchel would have projected to throw 189-190 innings last season, at a solid ERA, making him a solid candidate for a team eyeing a third starter.
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Julio Teheran
Another Atlanta Brave, the teams former ace hasn’t quite been the same pitcher over the last two seasons, but his ERA has still been a sub 4. He threw a career low in innings in 2019 at 174.2 innings, still a fair amount of innings. Teheran has been very good in the past and still has the makeup to be that pitcher he was, his biggest issue last season was beaning hitters, issuing a league high 14 HBP. Teheran also has a high spin rate on his pitches, ranking in the 84th percentile on his curve and 70th percentile on his fastball. He may not be the ace he once was for Atlanta, but Teheran could be a sneaky bargain buy for a team looking for pitching depth.
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Wade Miley
Miley was able to land a contract with the Astros after throwing 82.1 innings for the Milwaukee Brewers in 2018 with a 2.57 ERA. Miley put together a solid season, even despite a rough finish to the campaign with a tough September where he failed to reach the 2nd inning in 3 of his 5 starts. Through August Miley had posted a 3.06 ERA, though he finished with a 3.98, he still was able to finish in the top 20 starters in ERA and WHIP. He threw 167.1 innings, though he was on pace for over 180 innings, while holding opposing offenses to a fair amount of weak contact (75th% in exit velocity and 81st% in hard hit percentage). Bumgarner, Ryu, and Keuchel are likely to garner a fair amount of attention which could allow Miley to slip under the radar and be a very nice, affordable piece for a club looking to add a left handed pitcher.
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Brett Anderson
If you look up Anderson’s career stats, year by year, they may not look very appealing. However, Anderson put together a solid 2019 campaign over 31 starts with the Oakland A’s, finishing with a 3.89 ERA and a 1.307 WHIP, both good enough for top 15 among starting pitchers. Anderson has only had 4 seasons where he started a fair amount of games. In his rookie season in 2009 with Oakland, started 30 games while throwing 175.1 innings with a 4.06 ERA. The following seasons, over 19 starts and 112.1 innings, Anderson posted a 2.80 ERA. It wasn’t until 2015 when he eclipsed 100 innings again, this time with the Dodgers throwing 180.1 innings at a 3.69 ERA. After 2015, Anderson failed to reach 100 innings until last season. He’s had a hard time bouncing back from injuries, but so long as he stays healthy, Anderson can be a nice piece to strengthen a rotation.
The Trade Targets (potentially)
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Matt Boyd
Yet another player who’s name came up at last season’s trade deadline, except he isn’t a free agent now. The Tigers are no where near competitive, so if a team is offering fair compensation they have no reason to hang onto him, especially if they can be building for the future. Statcast metrics look favorably upon Boyd as his strikeout percentage ranks in the 86th percentile while the spin rate on his fast ball, as well as his opponent batting average, ranked in the 74th percentile. He was also tied for 10th in the league in strikeouts while throwing 180 innings, however his ERA was a 4.56 and he gave up a league leading 39 home runs. Maybe a change of scenery could help to allow Boyd’s bright spots to take precedence over his downfalls. On the trade market, demand will often cause a team to “over pay” for a player, so the Tigers can likely help themselves by trading Boyd.
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Robbie Ray
Like many others on the list, I feel like I’m saying this for the 10th time, Ray was discussed at last season’s deadline. Actually when the report came out that the Astros and Diamondbacks made a trade involving a Diamondbacks pitcher, I for sure thought it would be Ray. A left hander that excels at missing bats, still with years of control and having just turned 28, Ray could fetch a nice return if the Diamondbacks so choose to go that way. Ray’s ERA has fluctuated through a range of 2.89 to 4.34 over the last 3 seasons, however he is a sure bet to reach 200 strikeouts a year (if healthy) while also throwing 160 innings at the least. If Ray were to be traded to a more pitcher friendly ball park, his home runs allowed would decrease and likely drop his ERA to the 3 range (he have up 30 homers last season). Ray hold a strikeout percentage in the 88th percentile as well as an exit velocity in the 77th percentile. The Diamondbacks have set themselves up to go either way, they can either stick with what they have and attempt to build around them this offseason, or sell of some of their desired players to set themselves up nicely for the future, so the Robbie Ray situation is a curious one.
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Jon Gray
The Rockies were able to make the playoffs in 2018, almost winning the division title from the Dodgers, taking them to a game 163 to determine the division winner. That Rockies team did not show up in 2019 as the Rockies did a full 360 going from a 91-72 record to a 71-91 record. Personally, I think not having DJ LeMahieu in the lineup definitely hurt, as well as losing Adam Ottavino, both to the Yankees. Now there’s talk of a firesale in Colorado, and the 28 year old right hander Jon Gray has been a name in the rumors lately. Gray has always had a hard fastball and a sharp slider, but he’s struggled with consistency in his career. Kind of similar to Wheeler’s start, there have been flashes of brilliance from Gray which warrants opposing teams interest in him. Gray posted a 3.84 ERA over 150 innings last season, much improved from his 2018 campaign. This was good enough for a 4.5 WAR. A big attractor for potential trade suitors is that Gray , like Ray, still has years of control on his contract, but he also throws in the MLBs most hitter friendly park. So hitter friendly that WAR numbers appear skewed and the hitters typically do not get the respect they deserve because of the Coors field factor. Just ask Larry Walker. But the treatment hitters get is backwards from the way pitchers are viewed, as it is assumed (with fair reason) that if you remove a pitcher from Coors field, they will tend to perform at a higher level. This could land the Rockies a more than fair return should a team really like Gray’s prospects.
Many of these starters are in the “thanks captain obvious” category when talking about their performance. For example, everybody knows that Gerrit Cole, MadBum, and Stephen Strasburg would have interest from every team in the league. All the above section was doing was giving a quick rundown of some free agent starting pitchers that could possibly fit the bill of throwing 175 innings at an efficient rate, while also detailing some of their traits that suitors may find attractive.
As detailed earlier, teams with high end starting pitching typically perform rather well, so below are some teams that could benefit (or stay afloat where they are) in the offseason by signing and/or trading for one or two of the above starters.
Milwaukee Brewers
Yasmani Grandal signed a large contract with the Chicago White Sox a few days ago, a few days after the Brewers said they would like to retain Grandal, along with Mike Moustakas. Now that Grandal is off the table, the money already freed up from his contract gives the Brewers the ability to, potentially, sign an above average starting pitcher. The team has already said that they would check in on the starting pitcher market. This is already a really good ball club, with a very good offense and bullpen, and respectable starting pitching. Brandon Woodruff seemingly came out of nowhere and put out a very good season despite missing time due to an oblique injury, as well as an outstanding performance in the NL wild card game. Maybe Brewers fans knew him well, but I’d be lying if I said I knew of him before this season. Jordan Lyles also performed well for the Brewers after being traded from Pittsburgh and, although he’s a free agent, it’s been said Milwaukee would like to retain him. Corbin Burnes had a woeful 2019, but he will be in the conversation for a 2020 rotation sport. The Brewers have been on looking for an ace for the last 3 years or so, and are sure to make a run at one of this off season’s top starting pitcher options. A free agent signing paired with Woodruff, along with Davies, Lyles, and a fifth starter could give the Brewers a very strong starting rotation heading into 2020 where they look to build on their 89 win season. The Brewers have been rumored to be the front runner for Madison Bumgarner.
Texas Rangers
With a new ballpark, could come a fresh start. The Rangers, along with the Angels, might be the most interesting team to watch this off season, as they’ve already said they would look into big name free agents Gerrit Cole and Anthony Rendon. They’ve got a lot of money and a fairly respectable offense (12th in the majors in runs scored last season), to go along with an underrated pitching staff. The Rangers were 1 of 3 teams to have at least two starters throw 200 innings, the others being the Nationals and Astros. They already have Lance Lynn and Mike Minor on team friendly deals, who both tossed 208.1 innings last season. With the money they have, if they could sign one of the aces of free agency, sure up their bullpen, maybe add a bat, and have Lynn and Minor perform similarly in 2020, the Rangers could quietly be a very dangerous team.
*Signed Kyle Gibson to a 3 yea$30M deal\*, who was originally set to be included for his consistent ability to eat innings every fifth day. However, he signed before this was typed
Los Angeles Angels
Speaking of the Angels, Los Angeles has been the most popularly predicted landing spot for Gerrit Cole, being that he’s from the west coast. LA has the best player in baseball on the roster but haven’t made the playoffs since 2014. Baseball is a team sport and to be frank, the Angels have not done much to surround Trout with talent to make the playoffs. The Angels had the 15th ranked offense in runs scored last season, with Trout missing the end of the season due to injury. However the problem doesn’t lie in the offense, it lies in the pitching. The second worst starting rotation in baseball by runs allowed and a bullpen that ranked 20th in ERA. However, if the Angels are willing to spend the money, they could be far more competitive in 2020. If Andrew Heaney can stay healthy, the Angels had a starter or two, and make a play for a bullpen piece or two, they can be much improved. The Angels also still hold the view that Shohei Ohtani is a two way player and project him to return to pitching in 2020, though nobody is sure to what extent. There’s a lot of money already on the books but the Angels have made it clear that they will offer whatever it takes in their run for Gerrit Cole.
St. Louis Cardinals
The Cardinals have gotten little to no free agency buzz early in the off season. Marcell Ozuna is a free agent but will likely demand more than what St. Louis would prefer to pay. The Cards will likely look to replace Ozuna’s offensive production (or resign him of course), but with money left over after that, St. Louis will likely look to add another starter to go with their young stud Jack Flaherty, who’s incredible second half was enough for him to finish 4th in Cy Young voting. The 23 year old looks like he could be the Cards ace for the foreseeable future, and Miles Mikolas has resurrected his career in St. Louis, eating up 200.2 and 184 innings in 2018 and 2019. Dakota Hudson looks like a promising young player tossing 174.2 innings with a 3.35 ERA, and Adam Wainwright is back on a one year deal. If St. Louis got another ace to pair with Flaherty, it could be one of the best 1-2 punches in all of baseball (if Flaherty can build on his 2019 performace), as well as one of the better all around pitching staffs.
Minnesota Twins
The second best offense in baseball in runs scored, only 4 behind the Yankees, the Twins made a huge jump in 2019 from their 2018 performance. The Twins have been up and down the last few years, but the explosion of the offense, the additions of Nelson Cruz and Jake Odorizzi, and the breakout of Jose Berrios were key to the Twins 101 win season. Jake Odorizzi has already accepted the qualifying offer to return to Minnesota, the White Sox are still young, the Royals are in the midst of a rebuild, as are the Tigers, and the Indians are always in the news with rumors about trading away their stars so we’ll see what happens. As of now it’s between the Twins and Indians for the division crown, though the White Sox have a chance to be competitive. The offense is no question for Minnesota, but if the team added another solid starter like a Miley or a Keuchel, that could help sure up the starting rotation. The bullpen could use some help, and the early rumors out of Minnesota are that they’re in the market for some bullpen help and some starting pitching.
Philadelphia Phillies
The Phillies have already said that they’re interested in potentially engaging in free agent conversations with Gerrit Cole and Madison Bumgarner. A year after breaking the bank for Bryce Harper, the Phillies were expected to compete for a postseason spot but ended up finishing 4th in the NL east. Aaron Nola, Zach Eflin, and Jake Arrieta are likely locked into rotation slots for 2020. Eflin threw over 160 innings and Nola eclipsed over 200 last season. If the Phillies, similar to the Cardinals, could pair another top line starter with Nola, it would help tremendously, bumping Eflin to the 3rd starter, and Arrieta to the 4th.
*Signed Zack Wheeler to 5 year deal worth 118 Million\*
Atlanta Braves
Atlanta was a popular pick to make it out of the National League, boasting one of the best offenses in baseball (7th in runs scored). They Braves already have Mike Soroka, Mike Foltynewicz (despite struggling last year, he had a great 2018 season and 2019 postseason), and Max Fried. Dallas Keuchel is a free agent, they’re already making moves to improve their bullpen, and have two of the best offensive threats in the league in Acuna and Freeman. Whether it’s bringing in a true ace or returning their free agent starters, having another pitcher to put in with their current starters could be crucial to Atlanta’s hope of clinching home field in the NL.
*Signed Cole Hamels for 1 yea18 Million\*
Arizona Diamondbacks
The Diamondbacks are a curious case heading into free agency. The team went into a reload last season trading away Paul Goldschmidt before the season and trading Zack Greinke in a blockbuster trade deal with the Astros. Despite the trades of their big time talents, the Diamondbacks still managed to win 85 games in 2019. The teams starting rotation, as of now, includes Robbie Ray, Zac Gallen, Merrill Kelly, and Luke Weaver among others. Taijuan Walker was recently non tendered and will become a free agent. As briefly mentioned earlier, the Diamondbacks are in position to continue reloading, or they can try and capitalize on their collection of cheap deals and try to be competitive. Arizona also recently non tendered backup catcher Caleb Joseph and right fielder Steven Souza Jr. There aren’t many guaranteed contracts in the organization and there are a lot of quality players on cheap or rookie deals. Ray is a proven starter, Gallen and Weaver show promise, and Kelly quietly ate over 180 innings last year. The Diamondbacks have been identified as a team to make a run at Gerrit Cole along with the Yankees, Angels, Dodgers, and Rangers. However, with that being unlikely, it is likely the Diamondbacks look to strengthen their rotation to try and catch the Dodgers.
San Diego Padres
The Padres just released their 2020 uniforms a few weeks ago, doing away with the navy blue and white scheme and returning to the brown and yellow scheme. With new uniforms, last season’s signing of Manny Machado, and their impact rookies Fernando Tatis Jr. and Chris Paddack, the Padres are going to attempt to make the leap to being playoff contenders. The Padres are guaranteed to be in the market for starting pitching and some outfield help. As previously mentioned, the Padres already have Chris Paddack who will be near the top of the rotation, Garrett Richards had ace level stuff before being riddled by injuries (but both Richards and Paddack will be on pitch limits in 2020), and Mackenzie Gore will likely be up before the end of the 2020 season. With the money they have, the Padres likely will not be able to afford Gerrit Cole. The Padres are most likely to target Strasburg, Wheeler, and Bumgarner. That would give the Padres some quality starting pitching to go with their strong bullpen and an offense that includes Tatis Jr., Machado, Myers, and Hosmer.
Chicago White Sox
The White Sox have already signed catcher Yasmani Grandal to a 4 year, $73M deal, and are looking to spend more. The Sox saw left side infielders Yoan Moncada and Tim Anderson have breakout campaigns, as well as starter Lucas Giolito, while Eloy Jimenez is expected to take that same step forward in 2020. Michael Kopech, Luis Robert, and Nick Madrigal are all likely to make the 2020 roster as well, especially Madrigal due to the teams release of Yolmer Sanchez. The team also still has slugger Jose Abreu after the first baseman resigned with the team. After the signing of Yasmani Grandal, the White Sox will likely receive trade offers for all-star catcher James McCann, and though he may not land them a star, McCann could likely land a solid glue piece style of player. The White Sox have shown they’re willing to spend money and have already been linked to FA starter Zack Wheeler (it seems like everybody has been). The White Sox are looking to make a jump in 2020 and the addition of a starting pitcher and another notable free agent could help them do just that.
Los Angeles Dodgers
The Dodgers have won their division seven years in a row, dating back to 2013. Walker Buehler, Clayton Kershaw, and Hyun-Jin Ryu helped propel the Dodgers to yet another 100 win season last year, along with their stellar offense. However, Ryu is a free agent, and while he’s said he’d like to stay in LA, you never know with baseball. Despite his injuries, Ryu is sure to still have a fairly strong FA market and there’s a chance he could walk from LA. If that’s the case, Dustin May and his awesome hair made his MLB debut last season, and he could presumably take over Ryu’s innings if the Dodgers look in house for a potential replacement. If the Dodgers look outside of their organization, they have shown interest in Korean pitcher Kwang-Hyun Kim, who is entering 2020 free agency. The Dodgers are also a relatively rich franchise, so the idea of going after a top level ace isn’t out of the question. The Dodgers are already good, and they’ll almost certainly try and resign Ryu, but if they can’t they won’t have any trouble replacing his innings.
New York Yankees
When there’s free agency talks, the Yankees will always be mentioned. One of the best bullpens in the league, the number one offense, and a rich minor league crop that allows them to be competitive even with injuries. The Yankees also feature some talented starters in James Paxton, Masahiro Tanaka, and Luis Severino. Domingo German also put forth a solid pitching performance last season. However, none of them reached 170 innings pitched in 2019. Ultimately, the performance of their starting pitching is what cost them in the ALCS against the Astros. However, even when their starters were on, the Yankees are reliant on analytics and bullpen use. Masahiro Tanaka definitely could have gone 8 or 9 innings in game 1, which would have limited the bullpen use a little. The Yankees trust their bullpen, as they should, but they don’t have a ton of innings from their starters. The Yankees have a lot of good pitchers, but with their willingness to spend money, if they can sign a Strasburg or Cole (both of whom they have already met with and they will more than likely give at least one of them a blank check), they could build upon their already impressive 2019 season. The only thing that would concern me is that it seems that recently pitchers haven’t performed as well once they become Yankees. James Paxton was better in Seattle and Sonny Gray was unsuccessful in NY. That would concern me a bit, but either way, the Yankees will make a run at some sort of starting pitching.
Houston Astros
The scandal riddled Astros will likely lose Gerrit Cole in free agency, and they might lose Wade Miley as well. The Astros still have Justin Verlander and Zack Greinke, who both topped 200 innings pitched, and Lance McCullers Jr. will be returning from injury. Forrest Whitley could also make a push to make his MLB debut in 2020, while Jose Urquidy and Brad Peacock will also be options. The Astros can survive this offseason, despite the possibility that they may not attract any big time free agents due to the impending investigations. The Astros won’t lose much offensively, and they’re still planning to make a run at big time free agents, but it wouldn’t hurt to try and mediate the loss of Gerrit Cole in free agency. The Astros are very analytically driven and there’s likely a pitcher on the market they have their eyes on that we may not expect. Verlander, Greinke, and McCullers are locks for 2020, we’ll see what they want to do beyond that. Even with the impending investigations, the Astros are still likely to be in the free agent conversation.
All statistics courtesy of Baseball Reference and Fangraphs.
https://www.baseball-reference.com/
https://www.fangraphs.com/
News courtesy of @ JonHeyman via twitter.

Hub post
Welcome back! Now that I've gone through all 30 top prospects, it's time to...start over! We've only got four off days from now until the end of August, so each week I'll check in on ten guys and discuss a couple prospects not included in the top 30. Since that leaves an extra off day, I'll probably use one of them for just sleepers. In fact, I'll probably do an extra post the first week of August when we don't have an off day because my sleeper list is just too long.
The MiLB regular season ends at the end of August and since rookies have such short seasons, I don't think it makes sense to look too closely at their stats until it's over. So in September, assuming I'm not incapacitated from injecting football directly into my veins, I'll go through and do a rookie review - both top picks and top performers.
But enough housekeeping! It's not like there are enough people in this house to make a mess anyway.
As always, I'm going off of MLB.com's prospect watch here for prospect rankings and their MLB ETA, and I will be using the order as of 7/24 I go back to review. (The updates since then include trades, rookies, IFAs...it just gets messy, and I already framed out a month's worth of posts anyway.) I generally get stats from from Baseball Reference or is linked where I referenced it. I also like to use Fangraphs to gauge K% and BB% for batters, and K/9 and BB/9 for pitchers.

Sleepers

26. Cole Sands, RHP

Acquired: 2018 draft (5.154) Age: 22 Current level: A+ (Fort Myers) MLB ETA: 2021 Baseball Reference page
The Twins drafted junior Cole Sands out of Florida State last year, but elected not to put him in rookie ball because of lingering tendinitis from the college season (per MLB.com). Instead, he got his professional debut in A ball this year, where he pitched five shutout innings, struck out eight, walked one, and beaned one. Over his first four starts, Sands threw 26.0 innings and allowed 5 runs on 18 hits and 9 walks while knocking down 28. His next three starts were a little less flashy - 15.1 innings, 9 runs on 23 hits, 21 strikeouts - but he was promoted to A+ at the end of May anyway. His final statline for A ball boasts a 3.05 ERA over 41.1 IP (8 starts), 1.258 WHIP, and 10.7 K/9.
In A+, Sands has put up a more temperate group of outings - less fantastic ones, but none that look bad, at least on paper. As a result, his numbers are a fair bit better: over 7 games (41.0 innings), he has a 2.41 ERA, a 0.829 WHIP (!!!), 0.9 BB/9, and 10.7 K/9. It looks very good, and while that WHIP doesn't look sustainable, the consistency he's had at this level is very encouraging. So far he's had three great lines: 5 IP, 0R, 0H, 6K; 6 IP, 0R, 2H, 7K; 7 IP, 21ER, 8H, 6K. The rest of his starts have all been 5+ innings, 2-3 runs, 5-7 strikeouts, and 0-1 walks. That's pretty remarkable consistency. The one area that he's truly struggled in compared to A ball is homers - he ~~hasn't hit any~~ has allowed three. But that's still only 0.7 H9, so it's probably unfair to complain about that difference.
Altogether, it's a very impressive debut year for Sands, whose numbers are unexpectedly significantly better than they were in college. It's certainly not surprising that he earned a spot on the Twins' top 30. Barring a major regression in A+, I would guess he moves up to AA in 2020.

29. Chris Vallimont, RHP

Acquired: Trade with MIA Age: 22 Current level: A+ (Fort Myers) MLB ETA: 2021 Baseball Reference page
I originally had recent debutante Cody Stashak in this spot, but decided to shake things up after Sunday's trade. The Twins sent Lewin Diaz to the Marlins for Sergio Romo, a PTBNL, and, of course, Chris Vallimont. That's a pretty good haul for a guy who wasn't even in our top 30 (though I'd argue he should have been). Vallimont was #23 in the Marlins system and is now #29 in ours, while Diaz is immediately Miami's #12 prospect (don't ask me how that works). I figured covering Vallimont this week would be more timely, and I moved Stashak to the spot I had reserved for Diaz next week.
Vallimont was pick 5.147 in 2018 out of Mercyhurst University. Per MLB.com, he led them to a D2 WS berth with a 16.4 K/9. Seems decent. He was sent to short season A level (A-) to start his pro career, but struggled mightily, posting a 6.21 ERA with a 7.1 BB/9 over 29.0 innings. However, that would not be a sign of things to come. Vallimont started 2019 in full season A ball and proved his worth, posting a 2.99 ERA over 69.1 IP with a 10.5 K/9 and 1.067 WHIP. He did have a few bad days - 4.1 IP 5ER, 7.0 IP 5 ER, 1.2 IP 5 ER, and a 2.1IP appearance with only 1 ER but 5 walks. However, he allowed two runs or less in every other start, including an A ball debut in which he went five shutout innings with 2H/2BB/8K on 72 pitches and an outing with seven hitless innings with 1BB/9K on 106 pitches.
For his first half performance, Vallimont was awarded with the start in the Midwest League ASG, where he struck out two in his one IP, including MLB's #1 prospect, Wander Franco. He was then called up to A+, where he's hurled his way to a 3.50 ERA over 36.0 innings in 6 starts. His K/9 is still 10.5, which is notable in its lack of decline from A ball. The BB/9 is down from 3.4 to 2.8, which is extremely encouraging - control has been Vallimont's weakest trait and one would fear it spiking after promotion. We do need to look at the game logs, however, as there's some inconsistency there. In his A+ debut, Vallimont allowed 9 hits and 4ER in 5 innings of work, but in his next start, he allowed 4R (3ER) on 5 hits over 7.1 innings (he entered the 8th with 1ER, and the last two were inherited runners). Then, in his next two starts, he pitched a combined 12.2 shutout innings and allowed six hits, walked six, and struck out 19. The next two starts were somewhere between - 6.0 IP, 4H, 5ER and 5.0 IP, 7H, 2ER.
Overall, Vallimont is off to a good start in A+, but will need to work on consistency for the organization to vest its confidence in them. He's been assigned to Fort Myers and will presumably get his first start there by the end of the week. I would expect he stays there until sometime next year, but if he closes out the year strong he may go to AA to start 2020 instead.
Side note: I was guessing "vallimont" meant something like "valleys and mountains" or something to that effect in French, but Google tells me it's Estonian for "moose," which is incredible.

#1-10 Updates

Some housekeeping since this is the first of these: for each player, I'm going to list their stats at the the time we first looked at them, their stats since, and their total for the season. Then, I'll do a quick rundown of what's happened since then and what to expect between now and the start of next season.

1. Royce Lewis, SS (Top 100: #7)

b-r	G	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	HR	RBI	R	K	BB
As of 6/3 (A+)	52	231	.224	.290	.333	.623	2	13	30	57	19
Since 6/3 (A+)	42	187	.254	.289	.428	.717	8	22	25	33	8
Total (A+)	94	418	.240	.291	.376	.665	10	35	55	90	27
Total (AA)	1	5	.400	.400	.600	1.000	0	2	0	0	0

The split since we last looked at Lewis doesn't quite look like enough to merit a move up, but if we narrow it down to just July, the slashline improves to .280/.344/.488, and if we look at each month, there's pretty clear, steady improvement. Quadrupling the bomba rate doesn't hurt, either - no more push-ups at second base. Ideally, we'd see him play at that level a little longer before the move, but the Twins seem to think it's enough and he'll get a month of AA in to finish 2019. He got a good start to it yesterday, going 2-5 with a two-run double for his first AA hit. Not bad!

2. Alex Kirilloff, RF (Top 100: #12)

b-r	G	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	HR	RBI	R	K	BB
As of 6/3 (AA)	29	128	.268	.359	.402	.761	2	12	11	27	14
Since 6/3 (AA)	36	155	.274	.316	.370	.686	2	11	18	33	7
Total (AA)	65	283	.271	.336	.384	.719	4	23	29	60	21

While Kirilloff's batting average improved slightly, he's seen bigger drops in his walk rate and slugging percentage while striking out more. It's not an apocalyptic regression or anything, and he's certainly had stronger streaks in there. For example, he hit .304/.375/.468 with two homers in 20 games (88 PA) between 6/20 and 7/9. But with those weaker stretches bringing down his numbers, I don't think we'll see a AAA appearance for Kirilloff until next spring.

3. Brusdar Graterol, RHP (Top 100: #49)

b-r	G	GS	W	ERA	IP	BB	K	WHIP	K/9	BB/9
As of 6/3 (AA)	9	9	5	1.89	47.2	19	46	1.049	8.7	3.6
Since 6/3 (AA)	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Total (AA)	9	9	5	1.89	47.2	19	46	1.049	8.7	3.6
Total (R+)	1	1	0	0.00	1.0	0	2	0.00	18.0	0.0

Graterol was injured in mid-May and we just learned last night that he's ready to return and will have a rehab stint in the GCL. Hopefully it's just a start or two and then he returns to AA.
Alright, literally while I was working on this post (er, I mean, at work, only working) he got his start and they gave him just one inning in which he struck out two and hit 101mph. We'll see if the 1.0 IP was the plan and he's going to be eased back in very slowly, or if they just decided it was enough and he's going back to Pensacola now.
Since Graterol has been so dominant in AA this year and appears to be healthy again, I would bet he's moving up next year as long as there isn't major regression in his last few starts. Of course, he's only had nine AA starts to this point, and he turns 21 next month, so there shouldn't be any rush if they feel he needs a few more starts in AA to start 2020. However, expect to see him in at least AAA for the majority of 2020.

4. Trevor Larnach, RF (Top 100: #92)

b-r	G	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	HR	RBI	R	K	BB
As of 6/3 (A+)	51	223	.304	.377	.479	.856	5	31	21	48	24
Since 6/3 (A+)	33	138	.333	.391	.429	.820	1	13	12	26	11
Total (A+)	84	361	.316	.382	.459	.842	6	44	33	74	35
Total (AA)	11	46	.238	.304	.333	.638	1	2	8	14	3

Larnach was already putting up great numbers when we checked in June, and he's certainly improved. Like Kirilloff, he's also seen a dip in slugging percentage, with only one A+ home run since early June. However, the batting average - in what is considered a pitcher's league - was pretty dominant. It was enough to get him promoted to AA a couple weeks ago, where he's off to a reasonable start. While the batting average is low, he's actually had hits in all but two games. That consistency is good to see, but he'll hope to have more multi-hit games instead of a slew of 1-4 and 1-5 games. He'll also need to cut down on the K% - 30.4, up from 20.4 in A+. All in all, though, it's no less than you can expect so soon after a promotion. If he's batting over .300 in AA this time next year, he'll likely get a showing in AAA in 2020 - perhaps even in the MLB.
Please don't trade him, Derek.

5. Jordan Balazovic, RHP (Top 100: #98)

b-r	G	GS	W	L	ERA	IP	BB	K	WHIP	BB/9	K/9
Total (A)	4	4	2	1	2.18	20.2	4	33	0.919	1.7	14.4
As of 6/24 (A+)	8	8	4	1	2.63	41.0	11	54	0.976	2.4	11.9
Since 6/24 (A+)	3	2	1	2	4.26	12.2	5	11	1.297	3.6	8.0
Total (A+)	11	10	5	3	3.02	53.2	16	68	1.043	2.7	11.4

Balazovic has had a couple of relatively poor outings since we last checked on him, but there's not a lot to be added here. His overall numbers are still excellent and he still has yet to get a shellacking. He also pitched in the Futures game and had himself a nice little 1-2-3 inning in his one inning. Since he's now viewed as a top prospect, I'd bet Balazovic gets the bump up to AA next year, but if those last two starts become the norm he may begin 2020 with a few starts in A+.

6. Wander Javier, SS

b-r	G	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	HR	RBI	R	K	BB
As of 6/3 (A)	6	26	.273	.385	.273	.657	0	1	4	6	3
Since 6/3 (A)	42	174	.155	.247	.310	.557	6	22	15	63	17
Total (A)	48	200	.169	.265	.305	.570	6	23	19	69	20

When we last saw him, Javier was just starting his season following missing all of 2018 with a torn labrum and missing the start of the season with a quad injury (I think). He was off to a good start, slashing .267/.365/.400 with a pair of homers in his first 12 games.
But then things began to fall apart. From 6/10 to 7/14, he slashed .067/.170/.090 in 25 games (100 PA) with just six hits. Hey, at least he had a 10% walk rate, right? That would be nice if it wasn't paired with a 39% strikeout rate. He also had a .120 BABIP, so maybe he was a bit unlucky, but based on that K% I'd bet it's just poor contact. However, he may have begun to turn the corner: since 7/14 (12 G/52 PA), he's slashed .261/.346/.609 with four bombas. If the corner really has been turned and he finishes out the year with the same slashline and decreased K% in August, I think he gets moved up to A+ to start 2020. If not, he'll probably have to play another month or two in A ball to start the year.
On the bright side, his fielding stats look pretty solid; while the error rate is a bit high, you expect that with 20 year old A-level shortstops. Everything else - as well as I can read it, anyway - looks quite good.

7. Brent Rooker, 1B/OF

b-r	G	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	HR	RBI	R	K	BB
As of 6/10 (AAA)	34	143	.276	.378	.512	.890	7	23	22	55	16
Since 6/10 (AAA)	31	131	.286	.420	.562	.982	7	24	19	40	19
Total (AAA)	65	274	.281	.398	.535	.933	14	47	41	95	35

Rooker had a rough April and slow May, but spent June racking up restraining order after restraining order from the pitchers he left emotionally and physically deconstructed: six bombas and a 1.120 OPS. Yes please. Now, you can't expect that to be the norm, but it should be noted that his season slashline against righty pitching is .317/.419/.605 (just don't look at the lefty splits). Unfortunately, he's been on the IL for the past two weeks, with some injury I can't find details on. Hopefully he's back soon as he ought to be a top candidate for a September call-up...if he's not traded, of course. If he does stay, I expect he'll at least be a bubble player next year.

8. Jhoan Duran, RHP

b-r	G	GS	W	L	ERA	IP	BB	K	WHIP	BB/9	K/9
As of 6/10 (A+)	10	10	1	5	3.28	49.1	17	56	1.095	3.1	10.3
Since 6/10 (A+)	6	5	1	4	3.14	28.2	14	39	1.395	4.4	12.2
Total (A+)	17	16	2	9	3.23	78.0	31	95	1.205	3.6	11.0
Total (AA)	1	1	1	0	0.00	5.0	1	3	0.600	1.8	5.4

Duran has continued to be the deGrom of minor league pitchers. However, while his ERA is slightly better in this last stretch, his WHIP is up a lot. The walks remain to be an issue, and it seems he either gets a bunch of strikeouts or allows few hits - rarely both. That said, he still has yet to allow more than 3 runs in an outing, and he got the call up to AA along with Lewis, getting his first start in the same game. And it was a good one - 5.0 IP, 2H, 0R, 3K, 1BB on 65 pitches. (And actually got credit for the win!) Aside from the low strikeout number, you can't ask for much more. Don't be surprised if Duran is higher on this list next year. We'll see him back in AA in the spring, of course, but I bet we'll see him in AAA at some point in 2020.

9. Lewis Thorpe, LHP

b-r	G	GS	W	L	ERA	IP	BB	K	WHIP	BB/9	K/9
As of 6/10 (AAA)	11	11	3	3	5.95	56.0	14	70	1.339	2.3	11.3
Since 6/10 (AAA)	6	5	2	1	3.18	28.1	11	32	1.271	3.5	10.2
Total (AAA)	17	16	5	4	5.02	84.1	25	102	1.316	2.7	10.9
Total (MLB)	3	1	1	1	2.79	9.2	2	9	1.345	1.9	8.4

Last time I looked at Thorpe, I more or less pegged him as a guy who was beginning to flame out in the minors due to inconsistency who would need to make some big improvements. This is my time to apologize to Thorpe, as he's since made his MLB debut in admirable fashion. In his first (and only, thus far) start, his line was 5.0 IP, 2H, 2R, 6K, 2BB on 70 pitches. (He got the loss. Down with pitching W-L! Seize the means of analytics!) Thorpe then returned to AAA, where his apparently boosted confidence spurred him to a 1.80 ERA over his next 15 innings. He's now back in the MLB and has pitched 4.2 innings in two relief appearances, most notably to hold the Yankees in the win over them last Monday.
I'm really not sure if something was off earlier in the year and something just clicked mid June, or if he was on the whole time but it didn't show on the stat sheet. Regardless, he is currently pitching pretty well in the majors, even if 7.0 innings of that is against the White Sox. It's hard to say what his role for the rest of the year will be because it depends not only on how well he throws but also on what moves the Twins make in the next two days. There certainly won't be a spot for him in the rotation unless there's an injury, but we may see him hold onto a bullpen role if he's pitching well and there's a spot for him.

10. Blayne Enlow, RHP

b-r	G	GS	W	L	ERA	IP	BB	K	WHIP	BB/9	K/9
Total (A)	8	8	4	3	4.57	41.1	15	44	1.379	3.3	9.6
As of 6/10 (A+)	2	2	1	1	2.25	12.0	3	10	0.750	2.3	7.5
Since 6/10 (A+)	7	6	1	2	4.33	35.1	10	24	1.387	2.5	6.1
Total (A+)	8	8	2	3	3.80	47.1	13	34	1.225	2.5	6.5

Despite Enlow's great beginnings in A+, things haven't continued as such. He had one more really good outing - six shutout innings, albeit seven hits and a walk - and has had some decent ones, but has had a number of poor outings as well. Now, it's not like he's been terrible, but it's not what you'd like to see, especially in his last three starts. Hopefully he manages to clean it up in the last month of the year. Regardless, I'd expect the Twins to have a plan for him in 2020 that's similar to the 2019 roadmap: start in A+, then move up after a month or two. Enlow will be 21 at the start of next season, so he still has a lot of time to improve - it's not time for the panic button just yet.

Hello, everyone!! bathrobeDFS is here with your Daily MLB Analysis. First, I will go over any weather concerns. Then, we will take a look at the Vegas lines. Next, I will take a look at Pitchers. Then I will look at the Hitters. All of this will be discussed as someone who plays on DraftKings. If you have any additional questions or want to see guaranteed updates in regards to breaking news- I provide additional updates, information, and stats on my twitter @bathrobeDFS. Feel free to throw me a follow cause it’s much easier and more timely to provide updates over that medium. I also have a Venmo and Patreon for those that would like to donate
I also strongly suggest joining us on Flick. It’s a live chat app that allows me, and a wonderful group of people, to deal with news as it happens, talk about the slate, share lineups, and break things down in a way I simply can’t on any other medium. It is also invite only, so there are no trolls and only good, helpful people talking all different sports, all day, every day.. If you want to join us there, Download the Flick App and send me a message so I can get you an invite. That’s it! Free and easy!
With that being said, let’s get into it!
Early Two Game Slate
Game Notes (SPs, Vegas Lines, Weather)
Rays vs White Sox - 210pm

Blake Snell, LHP - 1-1, 13.0 IP, 3.46 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, 3 BB, 16 K
Carlos Rodon, LHP - 1-1, 11.1 IP, 1.59 ERA, 0.62 WHIP, 2 BB, 15 K
Vegas Lines: 7.5, TB -141
Weather: Partly Cloudy. Warm. Temps around 60. Winds light.

Projected Lineups (L/S refers to Handedness of the Batter // Splits - EN = Extreme Normal, N = Normal, 0 = No splits, R = Reverse, ER = Extreme Reverse, RHB = Switch Hitter better as a RHB. LHB = Switch Hitter better as a LHB. // Pitcher information is about pitching not how he hits.)
Tampa Bay Rays

Name	DK Position	Price	L/S	Splits
Yandy Diaz	1B/3B	3600	R	R
Tommy Pham	OF	5100	R	0
Daniel Robertson	2B/3B	3800	R	N
Avisail Garcia	OF	4300	R	N
Mike Zunino	C	3900	R	ER
Kevin Kiermaier	OF	4200	L	EN
Guillermo Heredia	OF	3300	R	EN
WIlly Adames	SS	3300	R	R
Christian Arroyo	3B	3400	R	0
Blake Snell	SP	10900	L	0

Chicago White Sox

Name	DK Position	Price	L/S	Splits
Leury Garcia	OF	3500	S	0
Tim Anderson	SS	3700	R	N
Jose Abreu	1B	4200	R	0
Welington Castillo	C	3300	R	EN
Yoan Moncada	3B	4500	S	LHB
Eloy Jimenez	OF	4600	R	?
Yonder Alonso	1B	3700	L	N
Jose Rondon	2B/SS	3300	R	0
Adam Engel	OF	3100	R	0
Carlos Rodon	SP	6200	L	R

Analysis
Well, this game gives us the clear #1 pitcher on a 2 game slate with reigning Cy Young winner Blake Snell starting for the Rays. He is someone you can play every time he takes the mound and, especially in a limited slate like this, the question of what you should do is going to be one of game theory. There is no reputable source that will tell you anything other than that Snell is, far and away, the best play here. Everyone else will know that too. And he’s not priced in a way that makes finding bats impossible, meaning he is going to be 80% owned in some places. So what do you do??
Well, you have 3 options. I often talk about this in regards to the NBA, but the same thing really does apply to SPs in MLB. You can either:

Play him with the field and hope he pitches a normal game and crushes it. This would mean finding a way to separate yourself elsewhere, either by not stacking, taking an unpopular stack (like the Pirates), or taking the lowest owned pitcher (I would assume that is Taillon) to pair with him.
Fade him and try to find value at other places. This would mean taking a chance on Taillon and Rodon and making a point of stacking the White Sox, to further distinguish yourself from the field. Especially on a 2 game slate like this, if a pitcher is overwhelming chalk and you don’t plan on playing him, it makes sense to stack against him as added leverage against the field. I mean, you’re not playing him means, generally, you think points can be had. So find them and have them.
You just put together the best lineup you can and who gives a shit about ownership projections. Because you win a tournament by having the highest score, not by being the cutest or having the lowest owned player.

I think Rodon is also a good play. When you take a look at the projected TB lineup, they lead off with a reverse platoon RHB, already putting them at a disadvantage. While I totally think you can take a mini stack (or one-offs) with Pham (especially), Robertson, and Garcia, I think Rodon will have his way with the rest of the lineup.
I will add 2 things here: It is a perfectly viable strategy to play a pitcher AND batters against him when the slate gets this small. While I don’t advise it on larger slates, it is perfectly viable when the options are so thin. If you want to play Rodon AND Pham you absolutely 100% can.
Second, If you play Snell and Taillon, I totally think it’s possible to expand the mini stack to a normal sized one by adding Heredia and Adames.
Pirates vs Cubs - 220pm

Jameson Taillon, RHP - 0-1, 13.0 IP, 3.46 ERA, 0.77 WHIP, 2 BB, 9 K
Jon Lester, LHP - 1-0, 12.0 IP, 3.00 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 5 BB, 10 K
Vegas Info: N/A
Weather: Partly Cloudy and Warm. Temps around 60. Light winds blowing out.

Name	DK Position	Price	L/S	Splits
Kevin Newman	2B/SS	3400	R	?
Starling Marte	OF	4700	R	R
Francisco Cervelli	C	3500	R	0
Josh Bell	1B	4100	S	LHB
Jung-Ho Kang	3B/SS	4300	R	ER
Melky Cabrera	OF	3500	S	0
Pablo Reyes	2B/OF	3500	R	?
Erik Gonzalez	SS	3400	R	ER
Jameson Taillon	SP	8800	R	N

Chicago Cubs

Name	DK Position	Price	L/S	Splits
Ben Zobrist	2B/OF	3500	S	0
Kris Bryant	3B/OF	5000	R	EN
Anthony Rizzo	1B	5000	L	N
Javier Baez	SS	5300	R	EN
Kyle Schwarber	OF	4900	L	N
Willson Contreras	C	4300	R	EN
Daniel Descalso	2B	3700	L	0
Jon Lester	SP	7600	L	ER
Jason Heyward	OF	3900	L	0

Analysis
I have been talking up Taillon since the very first time I talked about the Pirates. This kid is a legit ace-caliber pitcher. While he hasn’t had one of his ace-caliber starts this year, he did show marked improvement between the two starts, and I expect more improvement going into this game. I also think he will be the lowest owned due to both his price and the matchup with the Cubs. Which is scary, sure. But they are not the Red Sox or Yankees, and they can be had. Especially by someone like Taillon who can get strikeouts, has great control, and can keep the ball on the ground.
If you wanna go with what I assume is the most chalky stack on this small slate, I would prioritize the LHB on the Cubs so Zobrist/Descalso, Rizzo, Schwarber and, if you hate yourself, Heyward. He had his best game of the year already. Now I can ignore him for a few months while he eats up ownership and puts up a bunch of 0s or 3s.
I will also add that I’ve made it a point in taking some bats against Lester. He is an OK pitcher now, sure, but he is vastly overrated by the field both for his name and cause of the team he is on. I expect he will be the 2nd most popular pitcher on the slate by far. He is also someone who shows EXTREME reverse splits, meaning we can actually give a bump to Lester since he will be seeing 9 righties, including the pitcher. Still, I will take a chance on some Pirates bats considering the prices and where I expect the field will be. I would just start at the top and try to fit in whoever you can.
Ultimately this whole slate will come down to who you choose at pitcher, and that will come down, in part, to your philosophy.
Today’s Slate
Game Notes (SPs, Vegas Lines, Weather)
Athletics vs Orioles

Marco Estrada, RHP - 0-0, 16.1 IP, 2.76 ERA, 0.80 WHIP, 4 BB, 7 K
Andrew Cashner, RHP - 1-1, 10.0 IP, 5.40 ERA, 1.70 WHIP, 7 BB, 6 K
Vegas Info: 9, OAK -136
Weather: Mostly Cloudy and Warm. Temps in the 70s. Winds blowing out at 8mph.

Nationals vs Phillies

Anibal Sanchez, RHP - 0-0, 4.0 IP, 9.00 ERA, 2.00 WHIP, 4 BB, 3 K
Vince Velasquez, RHP - 0-0, 1.0 IP, 0.00 ERA, 0.00 WHIP, 0 BB, 2 K
Vegas Info: 9, PHI -132
Weather: Mostly Cloudy and Warm. Temps in the 70s. Winds blowing out at 9mph.

Yankees vs Astros

Masahiro Tanaka, RHP - 1-0, 12.1 IP, 1.46 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 0 BB, 12 K
Justin Verlander, RHP - 1-0, 11.0 IP, 4.09 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 4 BB, 13 K
Vegas Info: 7.5, HOU -152
Weather: DOME

Dodgers vs Cardinals

Hyun-Jin Ryu, LHP - 2-0, 13.0 IP, 2.08 ERA, 0.77 WHIP, 0 BB, 13 K
Miles MIkolas, RHP - 0-1, 10.0 IP, 7.20 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 3 BB, 5 K
Vegas Info: 8, LAD -118
Weather: Mostly Cloudy and Warm. Temps in the mid 70s. Winds light, blowing across field.

Mariners vs Royals

Felix Hernandez, RHP - 1-0, 5.1 IP, 1.69 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 0 BB, 4 K
Homer Bailey, RHP - 0-0, 5.0 IP, 5.40 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 2 BB, 8 K
Vegas Info: 9, Pick Em
Weather: Clear and Warm. Temps in the mid 70s. Winds blowing out at 7mph.

Braves vs Rockies

Julio Teheran, RHP - 0-1, 10.0 IP, 3.60 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 5 BB, 14 K
Kyle Freeland, LHP - 1-1, 11.2 IP, 2.31 ERA, 0.86 WHIP, 5 BB, 15 K
Vegas Info: 10.5, COL -133
Weather: COORS FIELD GAME - Clear and Warm. Temps in 70s. Winds blowing in at 7mph

Padres vs Giants

Eric Lauer, LHP - 1-1, 11.0 IP, 3.27 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 2 BB, 5 K
Madison Bumgarner, LHP - 13.0 IP, 1.38 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 3 BB, 13 K
Vegas Info: 7, SF -125
Weather: 30% chance of Rain through the Game Overcast and Warm. Temps around 60. Winds blowing out at 10mph. Doesn’t matter in SF

Brewers vs Angels

Jhoulys Chacin, RHP - 2-0, 10.2 IP, 4.22 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 5 BB, 13 K
Trevor Cahill, RHP - 0-1, 12.0 IP, 3.75 ERA, 0.83 WHIP, 1 BB, 8 K
Vegas Info: 8.5, Pick Em
Weather: Partly Cloudy. Temps in the mid 70s. Winds blowing out at 4mph.

Pitchers
Great Pitchers
Masahiro Tanaka (8700, RHP) at HOU - This price is insulting for someone with the consistency that Tanaka has. I know that the Astros are one of the most dangerous offenses in the league, but I also know that I don’t give a shit when a pitcher is as good as Tanaka (or, as we will see on the other side of the game, Verlander). As I have noted every time I have talked about Tanaka - what beats him is himself. He has the stuff, when it’s on and he can control it, to beat any team in the league, any day, and make them look like little leaguers. It really is filthy. If he stuff is working today, he will get more than 1 K per inning, not allow a walk, and keep the runs down, even if some hits get through.
Justin Verlander (10400, RHP) vs NYY - Verlander is coming off a bad start in Texas, which is awesome. It lowered his price 1100 bucks, and 600 under where it started on Opening Day. That means we get cheap Verlander! Plus, people who don’t understand how baseball works will look at his log, see one bad game, and get off him, thereby lowering what should be astronomical ownership. Or they will see the Yankees and get worried. But it’s Verlander. If you play this slate out 100 times, he will get 25 DKP against the Yanks more often than he doesn’t. Don’t be foolish. Don’t overthink it. Even Cy Young pitchers have a bad start sometimes (except deGrom). And while he may have one again, odds are he won’t. So get on him at way, way too cheap a price.
Hyun-Jin Ryu (9600, LHP) at STL - I like Ryu a lot. I think he’s a great pitcher, for sure. I just don’t think there’s any way in hell I am paying 9600 when Verlander is 800 more. That’s just stupid. That being said, stupid wins a LOT of tourneys. So if you do MME, make sure you are taking some lineups with Ryu instead of Verlander (or even paired with, if you like some cheap stacks). That being said, Ryu is an extreme reverse splits pitcher who will be going against a lineup almost full of RHB, which is a huge boost for him.
Great Spots
Eric Lauer (7500, LHP) at SF - On opening day, I strongly recommended Lauer when he was 5600. I explained how he matches up really well against this poor Giants team. As a reverse splits lefty, he really is set to avoid almost every main problem he could face, which is how he got 6 IP with 4 hits allowed, 0 runs, 1 BB, 3 Ks and 20.5 DKP. While he’s almost 2k more expensive now, he’s still a good play, and I still expect him to put up around the same 20 DKP or so in this matchup. Granted, that puts him under several other pitchers on this slate, but I will still have my shares of Lauer tonight.
GPP Plays
Julio Teheran (5800, RHP) at COL - If you want a real cheap GPP play, boy have a got one for you. If you like getting deep into analysis, I strongly recommend reading this article about pitch type and how they are affected by Coors Field. If you don’t want to read the whole thing, basically, the 2 pitches that see the least change in effectiveness are the slider and the 4 seam fastball. Well, he throws his 4 seamer 42% of the time and his slider 22% of the time as it is. In Coors, I am sure he will take out the Curveball, that you can’t use there, and increase his slider usage. That will be good for him, as his slider evoked a 22.9% swinging strike rate and a .143 batting average against. Coors Field effects different pitchers differently. Some pitchers can deal with it. At 5800 and no ownership, I have no problem taking a chance on Teheran.
Kyle Freeland (6200, LHP) vs ATL - Oh man am I going to get shit for this. I am putting both pitchers in the Coors Field game in the GPP section. But the fact is Freeland is as an effective pitcher in Coors Field as he is outside of it. If you read the article I just posted in the Teheran section, you will see that 4 seamers and Sliders are the way to go. Well Freeland throws his 4 seamer about 40% of the time and his slider about 30% of the time. And, again, that is taking into account that he may change this rate in and out of Coors. I look at Freeland’s logs, as well. Game 1 of the season against the Marlins - priced at 9000, he gets 25.4 DKP. Game 2 against the Rays - price falls 1100 to 7900, he gets 22.3 DKP. Now his price falls again to 6200. How much you wanna bet he still gets 20 DKP?
Jhoulys Chacin (8100, RHP) at LAA - Chacin profiles very much like Teheran - a pitcher that can get a lot of Ks, can get absolute murder on RHB, but has a lot of trouble against LHB. The difference between the 2 is that Chacin throws his slider 45% of the time, and it is NASTY, which makes him REALLY nasty to RHB. But extra vulnerable to LHB. Still, this lineup is mostly Rs with only a couple of really good LHB we would have to worry about. While he is pretty expensive, I also expect him go get 20 or so DKP. Also, the Coors Field effect here is named Mike Trout, who will get a HR regardless of how nasty his slider is and how many feet off the plate it breaks.
No Thanks
Marco Estrada (7300, RHP) at BAL - Marco Estrada is a bad pitcher that doesn’t strike people out and gives up a ton of HR. But Baltimore is awful. There is ONE bat on the O’s that I almost consider a lock, but, otherwise, I don’t want anything from him or the other O’s bats.
Batters
Stacking Opportunities (in no particular order)
Athletics vs Andrew Cashner (OAK) - There are very few sure things in life - death, taxes, and stacking against O’s pitchers. Andrew Cashner is their ace, but is the most hittable. He may have thrown 100 but, when you don’t have great control and the ball doesn’t move, it doesn’t matter how fast you throw in the bigs. People will catch up to it and make you pay. And that has been the story of Cashner’s career.
How much do I love this stack? (1-10): 9
Chalk Level (1-10): 6
Preferred Stack: Full
Preferred Players: Piscotty (OF - 4700) and Davis (OF - 5200) are my favorite plays here, but you can start at the top and work your way down against Cashner
Phillies vs Anibal Sanchez (WAS) - Anibal Sanchez is the 5th starter for the Nats, but he really doesn’t deserve that job. He had a 2nd wind year last season with the Braves, but it was smoke and mirrors. In his first start against this same Phillies team, he got 4 IP and gave up 4 hits, 4 ER, 4 walks and 3 Ks and it would have been worse if he hadn’t been hit by a comebacker and taken out. I will also note that he is a reverse splits pitcher, and the wind will be blowing out
How much do I love this stack? (1-10): 9
Chalk Level (1-10): 6
Preferred Stack: Full
Preferred Players: Start with Rhys Hoskins (1B - 4700) and then go to the top and work your way down.
Nationals vs Vincent Velasquez (RHP, @PHI) - Velasquez was a pitcher with a lot of promise when he came up for the Phils. He has always managed to keep his K totals high, but he never was able to find the control you need to make it to the next level in the big leagues. Because of that, he is prone to leaving the ball out over the plate, or missing it altogether. I should also note Vince has only gotten to pitch one inning so far this year, as he has been the long man in the bullpen (since the Phillies didn’t need 5 starters until now.) So, yeah, not a ringing endorsement if I do say so myself.
How much do I love this stack? (1-10): 8
Chalk Level (1-10): 4
Preferred Stack: Full
Preferred Players: Eaton (OF - 4000), Soto (OF - 4800), Rendon (3B - 4200), Gomes (C - 3500), Robles (OF - 4000), then take your pick if you wanna fit someone else.
Dodgers vs Miles Mikolas (RHP, @STL) - If you have been following my MLB articles since the beginning of the season, or beforehand when I did the previews, let me first say thank you!. I really do value you taking the time to read the work I put out. I hope you enjoy reading my stuff as much as I enjoy writing it for you. Second, I have been on a quest to stack each and every time I can against Mikolas. I have been harping on it since the preseason and nothing is going to change here. When you are an extreme, EXTREME control pitcher that doesn’t strike people out, and you are getting lucky, eventually that luck runs out. And, as I often say, if you are not absolutely perfect, you aren’t going to be functional. It is way, way more profitable to bet against someone being perfect then to bet on them being flawless. And we have seen that so far against a potent Milwaukee and a not-so-potent Pirates offenses.
How much do I love this stack? (1-10): 10
Chalk Level (1-10): 5
Preferred Stack: Full
Preferred Players: Everyone and their grandmas if they become available on DK tomorrow for some reason. I would find it hard not to lock in Bellinger (1B - 4900) and Muncy (1B/3B - 4300). Especially Muncy at that price, and while everyone else will be looking to Colorado.
Royals vs King Felix (RHP, SEA) - Felix had a great first start for him, and he struck out only 4 in 5.1 IP. He wound up not walking anyone, which was nice. But he still gave up 7 hits and 3 runs (1 ER). I just don’t think Felix has it anyone. You know I’ve talked about how he has fallen off the cliff and, while it’s possible he figured out how to not be a power pitcher in the offseason, the odds are he is going to keep getting smashed most of the time. Even though this isn’t the best Royals team, they still have some great pieces we can take a chance on. Especially LHB
How much do I love this stack? (1-10): 6
Chalk Level (1-10): 3
Preferred Stack: Mini
Preferred Players Whit (2B/OF - 4500), Mondesi (SS - 4800), O’Hearn (1B - 3900) or Duda (1B - 4100), Soler (OF - 3900)
Mariners vs Homer Bailey (RHP, @KC) - Homer Bailey won’t have a job for long. Well, I mean, I’m sure he’ll have a job, it just won’t be a pitcher for a major league baseball team. There is a reason he is priced that low. And even that is far too high for him. He is a trainwreck of a horrorshow and I wouldn’t be surprised if his first start of the year is, by far, his best one.
How much do I love this stack? (1-10): 8
Chalk Level (1-10): 8
Preferred Stack: Full
Preferred Players: Start with Bruce (OF - 4200) then go back to the top and work your way down
Braves vs Kyle Freeland (LHP, @COL) - Given how Kyle Freeland pitches, there are very few Braves I am interested in playing. Anyone listed here is also a fantastic one-off play as well.
How much do I love this stack? (1-10): 9
Chalk Level (1-10): 10
Preferred Stack: Full or Mini - Only these Players:
Preferred Players: Donaldson (3B - 5000), Acuna (OF - 5500), Albies (2B - 5200), Camargo (3B/OF - 4500), Flowers (C - 4100). If those 5 don’t all play, I will not play a 5 man stack from ATL.
Padres vs Madison Bumgarner (LHP, @SF) - MadBum has looked OK in his first 2 starts, but still not like the dominant Cy Young pitcher he had been a couple of years ago before injury and age. On Opening Day, he pitched well against this Padres team, going 7 IP, striking out 9, walking 1, giving up 5 hits, including 1 HR, and 2 ER. in his next start, he threw a ball away that resulted in an error, or else he would have surrendered upwards of 5 ER, which would have tanked his stats. But that’s how baseball works. If you don’t pay attention, you don’t realize that he still gave up 5 runs, including a massive HR, and 2 walks and only 4 K in 6 IP. While I can understand not wanting to stack against MadBum like I will, I certainly won’t pay almost 10k for him and I advise you not to either.
How much do I love this stack? (1-10): 7
Chalk Level (1-10): 2
Preferred Stack: Full or Mini
Preferred Players: Machado (3B - 4200), Renfroe (OF - 3900), Franmil Reyes (OF - 3900), Tatis (SS - 3900), Myers (OF - 4200)
Brewers vs Trevor Cahill (RHP, @LAA) - Cahill is a mediocre pitcher. I mean he’s hit or miss really. It depends on the lineup. If he is going a lineup that has, say, a fuckload of LHB that can mash HRs at a ridiculous clip, he’s probably going to have a really, really bad day. Oh look, here come the Brewers who now get to use Thames at DH!! Poor, poor Trevor Cahill.
How much do I love this stack? (1-10): 10
Chalk Level (1-10): 5
Preferred Stack: Full - LHB Preferred
Preferred Players: Yelich (OF - 5300), Shaw (1B/3B - 4200), Moustakas (2B/3B - 4400), Eric Thames (1B/OF - 4300), Grandal (C - 4200)
One-Off Batters
Trey Mancini (1B/OF - 4200) - While the fact he’s been swinging a hot bat is a positive, I would want some shares of Mancini regardless. Estrada is a severe reverse splits pitcher, meaning he is WAY worse against RHB. Trey Mancini is a reverse splits hitter, meaning he is better against RHP. While you can also take your chance with Nunez (1B - 4100), I think Trey Mancini is close to a slam dunk today. I will be building my lineups 5/2/1 or 4/3/1 to make sure I have the ability to fit Mancini in as a one-off, no matter what. The dual-position eligibility is a huge bonus as well.
Altuve (2B - 4700) and Aledmys Diaz (2B/SS - 3600) - While I only Altuve in my current projected Astros lineup for tomorrow, if they are smart and play Diaz as well, I will have them both. This is a question of an extreme reverse splits pitcher going against reverse splits righties. That’s like 2 waves meeting each other and making the amplitude bigger, even though the wavelength stays the same. PHYSICS, BITCHES.
Carpenter (3B - 4200) - When a lefty has as severe reverse splits as Ryu, you bet I am going to try to get a share or two of Carpenter in there. I know Carpenter is an extreme normal splits hitter, so this doesn’t line up nearly as well as the other one offs I have listed so far, but it’s still cheap and worth a chance, especially since no one else is going to play him a L/L matchup, but he’s still leading off.
Blackmon (OF - 5200) and Dahl (OF - 5100)- The one thing with Teheran is he already has a huge problem getting LHB out. I think he should be able to work through the many, many RHB in this lineup, but these 2 LHB should give him extra trouble. Teheran likes to use the 2-seamer and the change against LHB since the slider breaks in and would generally be less effective. Unfortunately, changeups and 2 seamers are 2 of the pitches that do much worse in Coors so I expect him to struggle against these 2. They will either walk every time they are up or hit HRs.
Renfroe and Reyes - Both of these dudes hit LHP like they were future hall of famers. Seriously. If every pitcher the Padres went against was a southpaw, these dudes would be all-stars. So don’t ignore them just because it’s 75% of a MadBum pitching against them. Even if you don’t want to go to a mini stack of Padres, get some Renfroe and Reyes in there. Especially with Mancini, these 3 are reason enough to leave space for a one-off in your lineups today. Oh nelly.
Bour (1B - 4100) - With Chacin an extreme splits pitcher and Bour an extreme splits hitter, lining up against each other, I predict great things for Bour today. Even if you don’t wanna pay up for Trout, or go to the rest of this lineup (which I don’t really recommend), Bour looks super sweet today.
HR CALL OF THE SLATE: There are so many. Franmil Reyes
Ok. That is a full MLB day. Without an NBA slate to worry about, I got to get a little deeper in, though still not nearly as deep as I wanted, given that I had to write about the 14 gamer until 230 pm and then finally get some sleep. Anyway, best of luck today everyone!!
I am almost finished with my website. The article will still be free, and posted here, for as long as I am working for myself. If you took down a GPP thanks to my help, feel free to send me a DM here or an @ on twitter to be added to the site’s hall of fame! The site will have a membership that will provide, as far as I am concerned, what will be the best projections in MLB (and eventually NBA). I will work on them with my stat guy until they are perfect. We are going to account for things other people ignore because they are too much work. It’s going to be amazing. I am also going to be doing a daily video that will be a Q and A as well as a way for me to go deeper into everything, and discuss more of who I love or hate and why, since I can’t mention everyone due to Reddit’s character limits. As it stands now, I am almost at 30k and the limit is 40k and it was half a slate. God I love baseball.

Hello, everyone!! bathrobeDFS is here with your Daily MLB Analysis. First, I will go over any weather concerns. Then, we will take a look at the Vegas lines. Next, I will take a look at Pitchers. Then I will look at the Hitters. All of this will be discussed as someone who plays on DraftKings. If you have any additional questions or want to see guaranteed updates in regards to breaking news- I provide additional updates, information, and stats on my twitter @bathrobeDFS. Feel free to throw me a follow cause it’s much easier and more timely to provide updates over that medium. I also have a Venmo and Patreon for those that would like to donate
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With that being said, let’s get into it!
Game Notes (SPs, Vegas Lines, Weather)
BAL (Bundy, RHP) vs NYY (Happ, LHP) - O/U - 8.5, WAS -318

Rain around gametime. Rain will move out of the area by 3-4pm. I would expect a delay, but the game should be able to play out after. I wouldn’t fade any players from the game, pitchers or otherwise. After the rain, the winds will shift and start blowing out to RF at 12 mph. This will be a huge boost to LHB and a downgrade to Bundy especially, who shows extreme splits to LHB as it is.

DET (Moore, LHP) vs TOR (Thornton, RHP) - O/U - 9, TOR -130

DOME

PIT (Musgrove, RHP) vs CIN (Gray, RHP) - O/U - N/A

Cold. Temps in the high 30s. That’s a boost to pitchers. But the wind will be blowing out to RF, which is a boost to hitters. I would think the cold is more important, so it’s still a net boost to pitchers.

COL (Gray, RHP) vs MIA (Alcantara, RHP) - O/U - 7.5, COL -155

DOME

HOU (Miley, LHP) vs TB (????) - O/U - N/A

DOME

NYM (Wheeler, RHP) vs WAS (Corbin, LHP) - O/U - 7, WAS -136

Cloudy. Temps in the mid 50s. Wind blowing in, across the field from LF. This will knock balls down. Big boost to pitchers.

STL (Wacha, RHP) vs MIL (Burnes, RHP) - O/U - 8.5, MIL -121

DOME

CLE (Carrasco, RHP) vs MIN (Pineda, RHP) - O/U - 7, Pick Em

Cold. Temps right around 40. Boost to pitchers.

CWS (Giolito, RHP) vs KC (Lopez, RHP) - O/U - 8.5, Pick Em

Cold. Temps in the mid 40s. Boost to pitchers.

CHC (Hamels, LHP) vs TEX (Lynn, RHP) - O/U - 9, CHC -140

Mostly Cloudy. Temps right around 60. Winds blowing across the field to RF. Shouldn’t be a big difference in any way.

LAA (Skaggs, LHP) vs OAK (Montas, RHP) - O/U - 8.5, LAA -115

Mostly Cloudy. Temps in the high 60s.

ARI (Weaver, RHP) vs LAD (Buehler, RHP) - O/U - 7.5, LAD -205

Warm. Temps in the mid 80s.

SF (Samardzija, RHP) vs SD (Paddack, RHP) - O/U - 7.5, SD -153

Warm. Temps near 80.

BOS (Porcello, RHP) vs SEA (LeBlanc, LHP) - O/U - 8.5, BOS -147

DOME

ATL (Wright, RHP) vs PHI (Arrieta, RHP) - O/U - 8.5, PHI -147

Getting colder and windier as the game progresses. Temps will be into the low 40s by the end of the game. Winds will be howling around 17mph, blowing in from LF across the field. Big bump to pitchers in every aspect of it.

The Main Slate
Pitchers
Great Pitchers (w/ Ownership Projections)
JA Happ (10100) vs BAL - One of the free squares today, we get Happ against the Orioles. Happ is a high strikeout pitcher whose only real weakness is RH power. Even that he handles really well. Tomorrow’s O’s lineup is projected to have Renato Nunez batting cleaning. So don’t overthink this one. Happ is easily one of the plays of the day.
Zack Wheeler (9000) at WAS - Not only is the weather set up for Wheeler to do well this game, Wheeler is a severely underrated pitcher. I will copy what I wrote in my Mets Preview - “Starter #3 for the Mets is a very underrated Zack Wheeler. The first thing we need to understand is how long it really takes to come back from a Tommy John surgery. While you can pitch, your ability to pitch is still really hindered. You don’t have the same control. Your pitches don’t move as much right after. It's a long, hard process and you can see many pitchers go through it in real time. Zack Wheeler is one of those. On the season, Wheeler was 12-7 with a 3.31 ERA. That is great. Not spectacular. What is spectacular is this- deGrom had the best ERA for any starter in the MLB after the All-Star Break. Number two was Zack Wheeler who went 9-1 with a 1.68 ERA. In case you are keeping score, the Mets had the 2 best pitchers in all of baseball after the all star break. Dude was a top prospect and the coaching staff said he found something in the 2nd half. I would say the numbers dictate that is true. At the beginning of the season, I expect he will be performing like an ace but still priced like he was a #3 pitcher.” It looks like I was right about his price. I expect to be right about his pitching too.
Carlos Carrasco (10300) at MIN - Carrasco is one of the best pitchers in the game. He doesn’t let anyone on base. He strikes out 11 per 9 IP. He is going to be a Cy Young candidate so long as he can stay healthy. You can play him each and every time he pitches. He fact he’s priced this low is an insult.
Great Pitcher???
Patrick Corbin (10000) vs NYM - To again make note of my preview, showing why I have such concerns about Corbin - “Patrick Corbin is coming off the best season in his career. If you look at the basic stats, the 11-7 and 3.15 ERA, you might miss that those numbers are skewed by the terrible team playing behind him. Looking behind the curtain, you see just how well he did. He got to 200 IP, which is a big deal (especially when every IP counts for points). In those 200 IP he stuck out 246 batters, which is almost 70 more than his next closest season. His FIP was a staggering 2.47 and his WHIP was an equally impressive 1.05. Lowest H/9 of his career? Check. Lowest H9? Check. Highest K/9? Check. One of the most impressive things about all this is he never went over 108 pitches in any start last year, which means that he not only pitched well, he pitched efficiently. That means he is a hard pitcher to get rallies off of, and therefore, someone we should focus on getting one-off batters and not stacks (if we want to do that at all). I will add this- we assume that Corbin “figured something out.” We can look at how he increased his slider frequency dramatically (4th highest slider % among starters). But that change was between 2016 and 2017, and his 2017 was also good, but not Cy Young level. The K rate on his slider in 2017 was 21.6% and in 2018 it was 53.7%, the highest rate for any starting pitcher’s slider. He got 387 swings and misses on sliders in 2018. The next closest pitcher was Chris Archer who got 211. That is a difference of 176. Chris Archer is almost as close 0 as he is to Corbin. From 2012 to 2017, Corbin had the 20th WORST fastball among 138 starting pitchers according to fangraphs. In 2018 he was 22nd BEST, just ahead of Luis Severino. We can hope that this is the start of a great run of many years for the kid, but these numbers are so far removed from Corbin’s normal, we may have seen a career year and this year he regresses back to a more normal form. Depending on his price, I will exercise caution at the beginning of the season.” That being said, Corbin is a only really weak to RHB anyway and, if you look at the Mets, the best hitters are almost all LHB. Cano, Conforto, Nimmo, and McNeil. He’s a great pitcher in a great spot. I would just exercise caution,
Great Spots
Jon Gray (9400) at MIA - I really, really like Jon Gray. He’s a fantastic pitcher with great stuff who can’t seem to get it all together. When he is going against good teams, wherever he is, he has the tendency to let things get away from him. When he’s going against poor teams, he has the tendency and the chance to get 10+ K in 6 IP and give up a couple hits and walks. Against this Marlins team, in the Marlins incredible spacious stadium, I will bet on him having another one of his awesome days.
GPP Plays
Trent Thornton (5900) vs DET - I will tell you this now - I am a sucker for a good rookie. I might over-recommend them from time to time. But when I think we have a chance to get on someone with talent before everyone else does, at an incredible discount, I am going to run with it. Today, one of the rookies I am going to be all over is Trent Thornton. Fangraphs had this to say about him: “He has bat-missing, big league stuff, sitting 92-95 and touching 96 in multi-inning Fall League appearances, and sitting comfortably in the 95-96 range when he was asked to air it out for a single inning. Thornton also has elite breaking ball spin rates. His 12-6 curveball spins in excess of 3,000 rpm and his firm, upper-80s slidecutter often approaches that mark, which is rare for a breaking ball that hard. He also has a unique delivery that disorients hitters, during which his arm wraps behind his lower back. His arm action is ugly but, short of a 7-day DL stint this year after he was hit with a comebacker, Thornton hasn’t been hurt as a pro.” To me, that is someone we want to take a real good chance on, especially considering those pitches are generally better at getting RHB out, and DET is going to not be able to handle that. The bottom of the order is projected to be Hicks, Mercer, Mahtook, and Peterson. That might be 4 easy Ks, if not just easy outs.
Corbin Burnes (8500) vs STL - This dude is an awesome pitcher. He got a swing and miss on almost 50% of all sliders he threw last year. And his fastball is also above average. He worked out of the bullpen last season, so I’m not sure if he’s going to get you 6-7 IP like other starters (which hurts, considering his price), but he has the chance to absolutely dominate from the get go and challenge Alonso for the RoY. I will also not that, most of the time, someone with a slider like that can’t be touched by same handed batters. So if you wanna go to the Cards for some reason, don’t take RHB.
No Thanks
Trevor Williams at CIN - Great pitcher. Doesn’t strike anyone out so we can’t use him or stack against him.
Wade Miley at TB - Another fantastic real life pitcher that doesn’t strike anyone out, so we just don’t use him, or stack against him in DFS.
TB Opener & Yarbrough vs HOU - You can’t use him because you don’t know how long he’s going to get when he gets in the game. Also cause the top of this HOU order smashes LHP, so I doubt he will get to see them twice. And then it’s just an amazing TB bullpen managing the Astros as best they can. So no thanks to any of that.
Michael Pineda vs CLE - Coming off major surgery, having his first start in over a season, against a good Indians team (although noticeably worse without Lindor). He was a good pitcher, that could get you a lot of strikeouts. I can understand wanting to take a chance on him, or on stacking against him. But, until we get to see him a little bit, it’s just an uninformed risk you are taking. When there’s legit great spots on this slate, there’s no reason to go there.
Batters
Stacking Opportunities (in no particular order)
Yankees vs Dylan Bundy (BAL) - If this is not the most popular stack of the day, you are lucky that you are getting that much over the field. Cause Dylan Bundy does one thing - he gives up HRs. And he’s really, really awful at pitching to LHB. And, after the rain clears, the wind will be blowing out to RF (at the benefit of LH pull hitters) at a significant clip. Even the other hitters are going to be able to go nuts. I mean a H9 of 2.1 last season is one of the highest I came across, and I went through all 30 teams with a fine toothed comb.
Chalk Level (1-10): 10
Preferred Stack: Full
Preferred Players: Start with Greg Bird (4000) and Gardner (3900) then work your way through all the power hitters. Namely Judge (5400) and Stanton (5300)
Blue Jays vs Matt Moore (DET) - If you missed my Preview of the Tigers, this is what I said about Matt Moore: “Matt Moore should thank Jordan Zimmermann. Thanks to Zim, in 2017 Moore was only the NL leader in ER surrendered and not the ML leader. And then last season was worse for him. He got 12 starts and 39 games. Which means for 27 games they used him only in advantageous situations, or in mop up duty, and he still managed an FIP of 5.25 and WHIP of 1.657. He gave up hits and walks and HRs and I hope he sticks in the rotation, cause I want to make money stacking weird teams against him.” Well, the Blue Jays aren’t really “weird”, but they are one of my top priorities today.
Chalk Level (1-10): 7
Preferred Stack: Full
Preferred Players: Everyone. Go from 1st down the lineup. So.. Drury (3500), Grichuk (4300), Smoak (4100), Hernandez (4100), Gurriel (3700)
Pirates vs Sonny Gray (@CIN) - Sonny Gray is a 29 year old that is 4 seasons removed from being top 3 in the Cy Young voting. But he hit that cliff early. He has decent strikeout rates, sure, but that’s it. He gives up a ton of hits and walks. His WHIP is high. And the Pirates aren’t a team that’s very prone to the K. Meaning they are just going to keep getting hits until they get to a bad bullpen. All in all, this is going to be a very bad game for a dude with reverse splits against a lineup of some serious power hitting righties with reverse splits. If this winds up being chalky, make sure you separate yourself by knowing he has reverse splits while the field prioritizes lefties Actually, do that regardless.
Chalk Level (1-10): 4
Preferred Stack: Full (RHB)
Preferred Players: Marte (4900), Kang (4200), Cervelli (4000), Dickerson (4300), Frazier (4100), Bell (4200), Melky (4000)
Rockies vs Sandy Alcantara (@MIA) - If you look up Alcantara (which you don’t have to, since I do that work for you), you see someone who projected as “a decent back of the bullpen reliever” Not back of the rotation starter, mind you. He lets batters know when he is throwing his curveball. His fastball is ineffectual. He just looks like someone who doesn’t belong in major league baseball at this point. And he’s also an extreme reverse splits pitcher, so we can separate ourselves, again, by targeting RHB. With Danny Murphy breaking his finger, Mark Reynolds should get the start at 1B as well, giving us another huge RH power bat people won’t be on.
Chalk Level (1-10): 7
Preferred Stack: Full (RHB)
Preferred Players: Arenado (5100), Story (5000), Desmond (4200), Mark Reynolds (4100), Ianetta (3700), Blackmon (4900), Dahl (4700)
Brewers vs Wacha (STL) - Wacha is a decent pitcher, sure. But that’s as good as he is. He never took that step to the next level many were expecting. He is going to give up a bunch of hits and walks, and doesn’t prevent HRs by any stretch. He also doesn’t strike anyone out. That means that, when he goes against a dangerous team like the Brewers, we can take advantage by stacking against him where most people won’t even consider it. One thing - he is reverse splits, so prioritize RHB if you can. That will separate you from other people that play a Brewers stack as well.
Chalk Level (1-10): 2
Preferred Stack: Full (RHB)
Preferred Players: Cain (4300), Braun (4800) Aguilar (4700), Yelich (5500), Shaw (4800), Moustakas (4700), Grandal (4300)
Royals vs Lucas Giolito (CHW) - Lucas Giolito was ranked as high as the #3 prospect in baseball before the 2016 season. No one ever talks about him anymore, and he’s still just a 24 year old kid. Granted, last season he was awful, with an FIP of 5.56 and a WHIP of 1.477 while striking out as many people as Ivan Nova. He was the MLB leader in ER allowed and the AL leader in walks. None of that got any better for him in ST, even though he faced mainly AA level talent. If you stack on him, he is a normal splits pitcher, so take LHB as a priority.
Chalk Level (1-10): 4
Preferred Stack: Full
Preferred Players: Mondesi (4900), Gordon (3700), O’Hearn (3900), Duda (4100), Whit (4400), Soler (4000)
White Sox vs Jorge Lopez - Lopez was a top 60 prospect who has time to still figure it out. It’s possible this is the beginning of a career year for him. But I will bet that he keeps things going the way he did last season, where he had an ERA of 6.35 and a WHIP of 1.47. He gave up a ton of hits and didn’t strike anyone out. Basically, he profiles as someone we can stack against without question. Maybe he’ll figure it out. Until then, let’s make money off his incompetence.
Chalk Level (1-10): 6
Preferred Stack: Full
Preferred Players: Garcia (3900), Moncada (4100), Abreu (4100), Alonso (4300), Eloy (4300), Palka (4100), Castillo (3600), Anderson (4000), Yolmer (4300)
One-Off Batters
Candelario (3700), Goodrum (3800), and Stewart (3900) - While I like Thornton today, and will have plenty of shares of him, I don’t mind taking a one-off of one of the LHB from the middle of the Tigers order. His stuff should break in on these guys, making the stuff easier to hit for them. Making him a much less effectual pitcher, theoretically, against LHB. I will test that theory by taking some.
Juan Soto (4800) - If Wheeler has one weakness, it’s power LHB. And Soto can do a ton of damage. I don’t expect to have a lot of him cause I really like Wheeler today. But I can’t deny that he’s a great play.
Pete Alonso (3800) - He will be the NY Rookie of the Year. He can just mash the hell out of hitters. If you aren’t a baseball fan, or haven’t grown up watching the game, you may not understand the significance of the sound you hear when the ball hits the bat. You can tell when someone hits a Home Run by the sound the ball makes hitting the bat. And some people make a sound when they make contact that sounds like a sonic boom, echoing through the corridors of the stadium. Alonso makes that sound. It’s incredible. And he should have a great shot at some production at a cheap price when no one will be on him.
Afternoon Slate
Pitchers
Great Pitchers
Chris Paddack (9700) vs SF - Paddack is a 23 year old kid ranked as a top 40 prospect by the MLB and BP, and 66th by BA. Paddack missed 2017 with Tommy John and came out blazing in 2018. He started in single A, where he got 52.1 IP and had an INSANE K/9 of 14.3 and BB/9 of 0.7. Wow. He got promoted to AA, where he finished out the season with 7 starts and a more down to earth 9 K/9 or so with about 1 BB/9. So far in Spring Training, he has 3 starts, where he has thrown 8.2 IP and he has struck out FOURTEEN. IN LESS THAN 9 IP. That’s on top of a WHIP slightly over 1.1 and an ERA slightly over 2. The kid has been awesome, and it’s gonna be fun to use him as much as we can before everyone else catches on. Just be aware, he is going to be managed innings-wise as all kids are nowadays, so we shouldn’t expect any CGSO bonuses. I will take the chance on him tonight, and his upside. I told you I was a sucker for a good rookie.
Walker Buehler (10100) vs ARI - We are going to want to play Buehler almost every time he pitches. Last season, as a 23 year old rookie, he got 23 starts, and put up an FIP of 3.04, an incredible WHIP of 0.961 and a K/9 of 9.9. He gave up 132 Hits + Walks, and struck out 151 batters. Seriously, he is just an awesome kid who could even improve on that this year. He was also equally incredible against RHB and LHB, with BAs of .191/.195 and .OPSs of .544/.569. Oh boy.
Rick Porcello (9200) @ SEA - Porcello isn’t the best pitcher in the game. But he’s still really good. He still strikes out 9 per 9 IP, which makes him someone we like a lot for DFS purposes. He limits baserunners and has a good FIP, but gives up too many HR. Still, given how light the pitching is on this slate, we have to take a chance here.
Great Pitcher???
Cole Hamels (8300) at TEX - Hamels did really well once being traded to Chicago. I have to believe that, given his stats the last few years, that is more smoke and mirrors than actually pulling a Benjamin Button. So, once he came over, he faced the Pirates 3 times, the Reds twice, the Royals once, the Mets once, and the D-Backs once (even though they crushed him for 7 ER). That leads me to believe he just had some weaker opponents and he wasn’t suddenly amazing. Hamels did lead the MLB in one thing - hit batters, at 19. But the real question- can we play him in DFS or do we stack against him? The answer: Hold your fucking horses. Jesus Christ. I’m writing this. So, apart from one injury filled year, Hamels has had a pretty consistent K/9 of about 9, which is something we definitely want. Even when he was in the AL, his WHIP was still fine enough at 1.2 or so, and it dropped when he got to face easier opponents. Unlike his teammates, Hamels is a normal splits pitcher, so he can be attacked by righties if you want to go there. 27 of the 29 HR he gave up were to righties. 18 of the 19 people he hit were righties. So, when all comes down to it, he is going to be someone that we can play situationally. I don’t really want to stack against him if I can help it, cause he doesn’t give up enough BB and Ks enough people that I don’t like the chance of rallies against him. That being said, we have to see how much of his NL experience last year was a fluke, and how much was him returning to his former NL glory days.
Batters
Stacking Opportunities (in no particular order)
Cubs vs Lance Lynn (@TEX) - Lance Lynn is a terrible pitcher that can’t keep people off base, and can’t get LHB out. I am going to stack against him every time he pitches.
Chalk Level (1-10): 9
Preferred Stack: Full (LHB)
Preferred Players: Rizzo (4800), Schwarber (4600), Zobrist (3900), Bryant (4700), Baez (5100), Contreras (4200), Whoever else
Angels vs Frankie Montas (@OAK) - Frankie Montas is a decent pitcher. He doesn’t strike anyone out, though. And he lets a ton of people on base. Also, he can’t get out LHB at all. So what you want to do is stack those up and add in good ole’ Mikey Trout if you want.
Chalk Level (1-10): 6
Preferred Stack: Full or Mini (LHB)
Preferred Players: Bour (4000), La Stella (3100), Calhoun (3700), Goodwin (3600), Trout (5400)
Athletics vs Tyler Skaggs (LAA) - Tyler Skaggs is a fine pitcher. He is someone we can use from time to time. He strikes out a bunch of people. But he is weak against RHB. They can really take advantage of him, especially power RHB. While I totally understand taking a chance on playing him, I would rather stack against thim here.
Chalk Level (1-10): 3
Preferred Stack: Full
Preferred Players: Semien (3700), Chapman (4000), Piscotty (3900), Khris (4300), Kendrys (3800), Profar (3700), Pinder (3600), Hundley (3300)
Padres vs Samardzija (SFG) - The Shark has fallen off the proverbial cliff. He can’t get anyone out. His FIP last season was 5.44. His WHIP was 1.634. He had a 5.2 BB/9.
Chalk Level (1-10): 4
Preferred Stack: Full
Preferred Players: Hosmer (4400), Kinsler (3900), Machado (4500), Myers (4700), Reyes (4300), Tatis (4200), Hedges (4000)
Dodgers vs Luke Weaver (ARI) - Weaver is a fine pitcher. And, as I wrote in my Preview, I expect him to flourish under the tutelage of Greinke this season. But that being said, apart from his high K rate, he is doesn’t profile as someone we can use right now. He does profile as someone who has a really hard time getting LHB out, though, and who gives up a ton of hits and walks and HR. So, while you can go anywhere, I would prioritize LHB, which the Dodgers are full of.
Chalk Level (1-10): 7
Preferred Stack: Full (LHB)
Preferred Players: Pederson (4300), Muncy (4500), Bellinger (4800), Pollock (4500), Freese (3700), Taylor (4100)
One-Off Batters
Betts (5200), Martinez (5000), Bogaerts (4600) - LeBlanc is a decent pitcher. He is really good at limiting baserunners and runs. He has done it consistently from year to year. But he is a LHP and anytime those 3 guys face a LHP you can and should lock them in. Especially Betts and JD Martinez. Like, no exaggeration. Every. Single. Time.
This looks like a really fun day of baseball!! Best of luck everyone!!

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Welcome to Gettysburg (Day One)

Team Preview - Manchester United [Premier League 2019-20 - 15/20]