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Trump’s playbook is Russia’s playbook

The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) in July withheld an intelligence bulletin warning of a Russian plot to spread misinformation regarding Joe Biden's mental health. The bulletin, titled “Russia Likely to Denigrate Health of U.S. Candidates to Influence 2020 Election,” was blocked by the office of acting DHS Secretary Chad Wolf on July 9.

The bulletin states that analysts had “high confidence” in their conclusion. However, a DHS spokesperson tried to defend the “delay” in issuing the document by saying it did not meet the agency’s standards. This is curious because just a week later, on July 16, DHS circulated a bulletin on anarchists in Portland that officers admitted they had “low confidence” in. Why was the Russia memo held back but the Portland one released?
Trump has been pushing the same line of attack against Biden for months - yet another instance of Russia and Trump operating from the same playbook. For instance, in March Trump said there was “something going on” with Biden; in June Trump ran selectively edited ads asserting that Biden is “unfit to serve as Commander in Chief”; last month Trump ran a digital ad portraying Biden as perpetually confused and mentally unstable. Most recently, Trump said questions about his own health are only in the news because “they want to try and get me to be on Biden's physical level."

DHS is just the latest agency in the Trump administration to erode election security, following actions by the Justice Department and the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) last month. DNI John Ratcliffe announced he was ending in-person congressional briefings on election security ahead of November and AG Bill Barr removed a leading career official at the Justice Department’s national security division, replacing him with an inexperienced political appointee.
The ODNI’s decision to halt congressional election briefs may have been influenced by top White House officials. National Security Adviser Robert O’Brien and Chief of Staff Mark Meadows, among others, have repeatedly discussed in meetings with staff and with Trump “how to restrict and control the flow of information on such sensitive topics to Capitol Hill.”

One White House official told The Daily Beast that Meadows has for months been wary of the type of briefings on Capitol Hill that Democratic sources can potentially use to try to make Trump look bad through surreptitious leaks to media outlets.

Meanwhile, interim Chair of the Senate Intelligence Committee Marco Rubio (R-FL) said last week that his committee will be granted an exception to the ODNI’s new policy and continue to receive in-person briefings from top U.S. intelligence officials about election-security issues. This essentially means that only Democrat-led committees have been cut out of the process ensuring election security.
House Democrats wrote to Ratcliffe insinuating if his office does not provide the previously scheduled briefings this month they will issue subpoenas and/or defund the ODNI in the appropriations bill due by the end of the month. Read the letter here.
In addition to attacks on Biden’s health, DHS has determined that Russia is seeking to “amplify” concerns over the integrity of U.S. elections by promoting allegations that mail-in voting will lead to widespread fraud. Intelligence analysts say this strategy has been underway since at least March, coinciding with Trump’s own assaults on mail-in voting.

For instance, in March Trump said if he agreed to funding vote-by-mail expansions in the first coronavirus stimulus bill, the U.S. would see “levels of voting that, if you ever agreed to it, you’d never have a Republican elected in this country again” (clip). Fact check: Neither party has historically benefited. On April 7, at the White House press briefing, Trump claimed: "Mail ballots are a very dangerous thing for this country, because they're cheaters… They're fraudulent in many cases" (clip). Fact check: There is no evidence that mail ballots are dangerous or fraudulent.

At a White House press briefing on Friday, Trump denied there is any proof that Russia poisoned opposition leader Alexei Navalny. Instead of backing the German government's analysis of Nalvany's illness, Trump then redirected the criticism from Russia to China (clip).

"I don't know exactly what happened. I think it's tragic. It's terrible; it shouldn't happen. We haven't had any proof yet, but I will take a look. It is interesting that everybody is always mentioning Russia - and I don't mind you mentioning Russia - but I think probably China, at this point, is a nation that you should be talking about much more so than Russia. Because the things that China's doing are far worse.”

Trump then went on to say he’s “taken stronger action against Russia than any other country in the world,” but added “I do get along with President Putin” (clip).

RELATED: Leaked notes obtained by the Telegraph say that when Theresa May asked for Trump to take a strong stand after Russia poisoned Sergei Skripal, Trump replied “I’d rather follow than lead.” He pushed May to “put together a coalition” first.

The Trump administration plans to deport a Russian national living in America, a move experts say is in response to a politically motivated request by Russia. Gregory Duralev was persecuted by the Russian state for exposing corruption. He fled to America and applied for asylum in 2015. While waiting for a decision on his application, he was arrested by ICE and jailed for nearly 18 months. His case is now in court.

“DHS has acted no better than the Russian authorities,” Duralev said. “They simply fabricated charges against me for violations I never committed — and if DHS can trump up charges against immigrants with impunity, nobody can guarantee they won’t start doing it” to regular Americans. “So that’s the main message I now hope to send.”

Michael Cohen & Peter Strzok

Former FBI agent Peter Strzok has a book coming out called “Compromised.” In it, he alleges that FBI investigators came to believe it was “conceivable, if unlikely” that Russia was secretly controlling President Trump after he took office:

“We certainly had evidence that this was the case: that Trump, while gleefully wreaking havoc on America’s political institutions and norms, was pulling his punches when it came to our historic adversary, Russia,” Strzok writes. “Given what we knew or had cause to suspect about Trump’s compromising behavior in the weeks, months, and years leading up to the election, moreover, it also seemed conceivable, if unlikely, that Moscow had indeed pulled off the most stunning intelligence achievement in human history: secretly controlling the president of the United States — a Manchurian candidate elected.”

He now says he doesn’t believe that Trump is literally a Russian spy: “I don’t think that Trump, when he meets with Putin, receives a task list for the next quarter,” Strzok said, referencing the Russian president, Vladimir Putin. “But I do think the president is compromised, that he is unable to put the interests of our nation first, that he acts from hidden motives, because there is leverage over him, held specifically by the Russians but potentially others as well.”
In an interview with Politico, Strzok confirms that he and then-deputy FBI Director Andrew McCabe, opened a counterintelligence case on the president, but that it likely was never pursued. Two weeks ago, NYT reported that Rosenstein secretly closed it.
As if there weren’t enough political books coming out this summefall, Michael Cohen is releasing his, called “Disloyal: A Memoir.” The following a couple of quick takeaways:
Cohen says that he, Trump, Aras Agalarov, Emin Agalarov, and others, watched a strip show in Las Vegas where one performer simulated peeing on another performer, who pretended to drink it. Trump reportedly reacted with “delight.” Aras Agalarov, a Russian real estate mogul, is a trusted associate of Putin and reportedly served as a liaison between Trump and the Russian president during Trump’s trip to Moscow.
WaPo:

On Russia, Cohen writes that the cause behind Trump’s admiration of Russian President Vladimir Putin is simpler than many of his critics assume. Above all, he writes, Trump loves money — and he wrongly identified Putin as “the richest man in the world by a multiple.” Trump loved Putin, Cohen wrote, because the Russian leader had the ability “to take over an entire nation and run it like it was his personal company — like the Trump Organization, in fact.”
...According to Cohen, Trump’s sycophantic praise of the Russian leader during the 2016 campaign began as a way to suck up and ensure access to the oligarch’s money after he lost the election. But he claims Trump came to understand that Putin’s hatred of Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton, dating to her support for the 2011 protest movement in Russia, could also help Trump amass more power in the United States.

USPS & mail voting

According to a Washington Post report yesterday, Postmaster Louis DeJoy engaged in campaign money laundering, also called a straw-donor scheme, at his former logistics business. Five of his former employees told WaPo that they were “urged” to donate to politicians in North Carolina and would be paid back through bonuses from DeJoy. Such a plan would allow DeJoy to illegally circumvent campaign donation limits.

“Louis was a national fundraiser for the Republican Party. He asked employees for money. We gave him the money, and then he reciprocated by giving us big bonuses,” said David Young, DeJoy’s longtime director of human resources, who had access to payroll records at New Breed from the late 1990s to 2013 and is now retired.
“He would ask employees to make contributions at the same time that he would say, ‘I’ll get it back to you down the road,’ ” said [another] former employee.
...A Washington Post analysis of federal and state campaign finance records found a pattern of extensive donations by New Breed employees to Republican candidates, with the same amount often given by multiple people on the same day. Between 2000 and 2014, 124 individuals who worked for the company together gave more than $1 million to federal and state GOP candidates. Many had not previously made political donations, and have not made any since leaving the company, public records show.

More than one million mail-in ballots were sent late to voters during the 2020 primary elections, an audit by the USPS IG’s office determined. Most of the ballots were late, the USPS says, because local election boards sent the ballots to voters at the last minute. Official press release.

[The audit] found the problems during primaries had been most pronounced in Kentucky and New York, where a combined 628,000 ballots were sent out late. In 17 states, the audit found, more than 589,000 ballots were sent from election boards to voters after the state’s ballot mailing deadline. In 11 states, more than 44,000 ballots were sent from election boards to voters the day of or the day before the state’s primary election.
One particularly troubling situation, auditors found, unfolded in Pennsylvania, where 500 ballots were sent to voters the day after the election.

Furthermore, only 13% of the ballots were mailed with the recommended bar code tracking technology.
Florida Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D) was blocked from attending two scheduled tours of USPS facilities last week. Local Postal Service officials informed her and union leaders waiting to accompany her into the building that national USPS leadership had directed them to bar the group from the building. A Postal Service spokeswoman said they simply needed more notice for a tour.
Many states, including important battleground states, are not legally permitted to process mail-in/absentee ballots until Election Day, leading to concern that results will be delayed by days or weeks. For instance, in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan election officials cannot even begin processing ballots until Election Day. Processing involves opening envelopes, flattening ballots to run through the scanning machine, and prepping for the scanning.

"When voters have to wait so long for results, it erodes trust in the process and leaves room for partisan bad actors to dispute the will of the people," said Amber McReynolds, CEO of the National Vote at Home Institute, a nonprofit organization.

AG Bill Barr made three stunning false claims about mail voting during an interview with Wolf Blitzer last week. First, Barr wouldn’t even acknowledge that voting twice is a crime - because just hours earlier, Trump encouraged his North Carolina supporters to vote twice to “test” the state’s mail-in voting system (clip).

BLITZER: It sounds like he’s encouraging people to break the law and try to vote twice.
BARR: It seems to me what he’s saying is, he’s trying to make the point that the ability to monitor this system is not good. And it was so good, if you tried to vote a second time you would be caught if you voted in person.
BLITZER: That would be illegal if they did that. If somebody mailed in a ballot and then actually showed up to vote in person, that would be illegal.
BARR: "I don't know what the law in the particular state says.”
BLITZER: You can’t vote twice.
BARR: "I don't know what the law in the particular state says.”

Then, Barr tried to assert that foreign countries could fake ballots, but when challenged he admitted he had no evidence (clip).

BLITZER: You’ve said you were worried that a foreign country could send thousands of fake ballots, thousands of fake ballots to people that it might be impossible to detect. What are you basing that on?
BARR: I’m basing — as I’ve said repeatedly, I’m basing that on logic.
BLITZER: Pardon?
BARR: Logic.

Finally, Barr cited a supposed incident of mail-in voting fraud in Texas. Too bad it doesn’t exist.

The payroll

Charles Rettig, the Trump-appointed IRS Commissioner who has refused to release President Trump’s tax returns, has made hundreds of thousands of dollars renting out Trump properties while in office. Rettig makes $100,000 - $200,000 a year from two units at Trump International Waikiki. When first nominated, Rettig failed to disclose his financial ties to Trump Waikiki. When questioned by Congress, he did not directly answer concerns about the properties.

CREW: With Trump’s name removed from some buildings as it began to hurt property values, we can only imagine how toxic it would become if a bombshell in his tax returns were released. Which means the IRS Commissioner has a vested interest in the success of the Trump brand—and of preventing anything that could damage it.

Voice of America staffers say Trump appointee Michael Pack is threatening to wash away legal protections intended to insulate their news reports from political meddling. Since arriving, Pack has fired the network's leaders, pushed out agency executives, refused to approve allotted budgets, and refused to renew visas for foreign employees.

Further reading: “Deleted Biden video sets off a crisis at Voice of America,” Politico.

Pack suggested the staff he fired and foreign journalists he essentially kicked out may have been foreign spies, without offering any evidence to support his claim. A group of 14 senior VOA journalists are openly disputing his explanation:

“Mr. Pack has made a thin excuse that his actions are meant to protect national security, but just as was the case with the McCarthy ‘Red Scare,’ which targeted VOA and other government organizations in the mid-1950s, there has not been a single demonstrable case of any individual working for VOA — as the USAGM CEO puts it — ‘posing as a spy,’ ” they wrote.

The White House is searching for a replacement for Federal Trade Commission Chair Joe Simons, a Republican who has publicly resisted President Donald Trump’s efforts to crack down on social media companies. Simons, a veteran antitrust lawyer, cannot legally be removed by the president except in cases of gross negligence. But the White House has already interviewed at least one candidate for the post.

RELATED: The Justice Department plans to bring an antitrust case against Google as soon as this month, after Attorney General William P. Barr overruled career lawyers who said they needed more time to build a strong case.

Richard Grenell, formerly the highest-ranking out gay official in the Trump administration, has joined a law firm founded by Pat Robertson that has a history of opposing LGBTQ+ rights. Grenell also recently joined the Republican National Committee to do outreach to LGBTQ+ voters.
The Trump administration has quietly named a new acting State Department inspector general. Matthew Klimow, the U.S. ambassador to Turkmenistan since mid-2019, is the third acting IG since Trump and Pompeo ousted Senate-confirmed IG Steve Linick in May.
Mick Mulvaney, Trump’s current special envoy to Northern Ireland, former Chief of Staff, and former acting head of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, is starting a hedge fund focused on financial services regulation. Ethics experts say Mulvaney explicitly using his knowledge of CFPB to place bets for and against companies gives him an unfair and perhaps illegal advantage.

Court and DOJ matters

Court cases
The Trump administration must, for now, stop winding down in-person counting efforts for the 2020 census, a federal judge in California ordered.
The three-judge panel hearing a challenge to Trump’s new anti-immigrant census policy seemed hostile to the government’s arguments in a hearing last week.
A federal judge has stopped the Trump administration from enforcing a rule change that would let health care providers deny medical services to LGBTQ patients on the grounds of religion.
Justice Department
Federal prosecutors are preparing to charge longtime GOP fundraiser Elliott Broidy in connection with efforts to influence the U.S. government on behalf of foreign interests. Broidy helped raise millions for Donald Trump’s election and the Republican Party.
Barr ordered another round of changes to FISA rules, tightening the use of government surveillance on political candidates or their staffers — a move conservatives will likely cheer, as they have long criticized how the FBI investigated the Trump campaign in 2016.

Before conducting physical searches or wiretaps of a federal election official, members of the official's staff, candidates for federal office, or their staff or advisers, the FBI must now consider giving them a "defensive briefing," to tell them that they could be the target of foreign influence.

Alright CYKAS, Drill Sgt. Retarded TQQQ Burry is in the house. Listen up, I'm gonna train yo monkey asses to make some motherfucking money.

“Reeee can’t read, strike?” - random_wsb_autist

Bitch you better read if you want your Robinhood to look like this:
gainz, bitch

Why am I telling you this?
Because I like your dumb asses. Even dickbutts like cscqb4. And because I like seeing Wall St. fucking get rekt. Y’all did good until now, and Wall St. is salty af. Just google for “retail traders” news if you haven’t seen it, and you’ll see the salty tears of Wall Street assholes. And I like salty Wall St. assholes crying like bitches.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/retail-investors-are-crushing-hedge-funds-again

That said, some of you here are really motherfucking dense & the sheer influx of retardation has been driving away some of the more knowledgeable folks on this sub. In fact, in my last post, y'all somehow managed to downvote to shit the few guys that really understood the points I was making and tried to explain it to you poo-slinging apes. Stop that shit yo! A lot of you need to sit the fuck down, shut your fucking mouth and listen.
So I'm going to try and turn you rag-tag band of dimwits into a respectable army of peasants that can clap some motherfucking Wall Street cheeks. Then, I'm going to give you a mouthbreather-proof trade that I don't think even you knuckleheads can mess up (though I may be underestimating you).
If you keep PM-ing me about your stupid ass losses after this, I will find out where you live and personally, PERSONALLY, shit on your doorstep.
This is going to be a long ass post. Read the damned post. I don't care if you're dyslexic, use text-to-speech. Got ADHD? Pop your addys, rub one out, and focus! Are you 12? Make sure to go post in the paper trading contest thread first.

THE RULES:

Understand that most of this sub has the critical reading skills of a 6 year old and the attention span of a goldfish. As such, my posts are usually written with a level of detail aimed at the lowest common denominator. A lot of details on the thesis are omitted, but that doesn't mean that the contents in the post are all there is to it. If I didn't do that, every post'd have to be longer than this one, and 98% of you fucks wouldn't read it anyway. Fuck that.
Understand that my style of making plays is finding the >10+ baggers that are underpriced. As such, ALL THE GOD DAMN PLAYS I POST ARE HIGH-RISK / HIGH-REWARD. Only play what you can afford to risk. And stop PM-ing me the second the market goes the other way, god damn it! If you can't manage your own positions, I'm going to teach your ass the basics.
Do you have no idea what you're doing and have a question? Google it first. Then google it again. Then Bing it, for good measure. Might as well check PornHub too, you never know. THEN, if you still didn't find the answer, you ask.
This sub gives me Tourette's. If you got a problem with that, well fuck you.

This shit is targeted at the mouthbreathers, but maybe more knowledgeable folk’ll find some useful info, idk. How do you know if you’re in the mouthbreather category? If your answer to any of the following questions is yes, then you are:

Are you new to trading?
Are you unable to manage your own positions?
Did you score into the negatives on the SAT Critical Reading section?
Do you think Delta is just an airline?
Do you buy high & sell low?
Do you want to buy garbage like Hertz or American Airlines because it's cheap?
Did you buy USO at the bottom and are now proud of yourself for making $2?
Do you think stOnKs oNLy Go uP because Fed brrr?
Do you think I'm trying to sell you puts?
If you take a trade you see posted on this sub and are down, do you PM the guy posting it?
Do you generally PM people on this sub to ask them basic questions?
Is your mouth your primary breathing apparatus?

Well I have just the thing for you!

Table of Contents:
I. Maybe, just maybe, I know what I’m talking about
II. Post-mortem of the February - March 2020 Great Depression
III. Mouthbreather's bootcamp on managing a position – THE TECHNICALS
IV. Busting your retarded myths
V. LIQUIDITY NUKE INBOUND
VI. The mouthbreather-proof trade - The Akimbo
VII. Quick hints for non-mouthbreathers

Chapter I - Maybe, just maybe, I know what I’m talking about
I'm not here to rip you off. Every fucking time I post something, a bunch of dumbasses show up saying I'm selling you puts or whatever the fuck retarded thoughts come through their caveman brains.

"hurr durr OP retarded, OP sell puts" - random_wsb_autist

Sit down, Barney, I'm not here to scam you for your 3 cents on OTM puts. Do I always get it right? Of course not, dumbasses. Eurodollar play didn't work out (yet). Last TQQQ didn't work out (yet). That’s just how it goes. Papa Buffet got fucked on airlines. Plain retard Burry bought GME. What do you fucking expect?
Meanwhile, I keep giving y'all good motherfucking plays:

28/10/2019: "I'ma say this again, in case you haven't heard me the first time. BUY $JNK PUTS NOW!". Strike: "11/15, 1/17 and 6/19". "This thing can easily go below 50, so whatever floats your boat. Around $100 strike is a good entry point."
3/9/2020: "I mean it's a pretty obvious move, but $JNK puts."
3/19/2020, 12pm: "UVXY put FDs are free money." & “Buy $UVXY puts expiring tomorrow if we're still green at 3pm. Trust me.”
3/24/2020: “$UUP 3/27 puts at $27.5 or $27 should be 10-baggers once the bill passes. I'd expect it to go to around $26.”

And of course, the masterpiece that was the TQQQ put play.
Chapter II. Post-mortem of the February - March 2020 Great Depression
Do you really understand what happened? Let's go through it.
I got in puts on 2/19, right at the motherfucking top, TQQQ at $118. I told you on 2/24 TQQQ ($108) was going to shit, and to buy fucking puts, $90ps, $70ps, $50ps, all the way to 3/20 $30ps. You think I just pulled that out of my ass? You think I just keep getting lucky, punks? Do you have any idea how unlikely that is?
Well, let's take a look at what the fuckstick Kevin Cook from Zacks wrote on 3/5:
How Many Sigmas Was the Flash Correction Plunge?

"Did you know that last week's 14% plunge in the S&P 500 SPY was so rare, by statistical measures, that it shouldn't happen once but every 14,000 years?"
"By several measures, it was about a 5-sigma move, something that's not "supposed to" happen more than once in your lifetime -- or your prehistoric ancestors' lifetimes!
"According to general statistical principles, a 4-sigma event is to be expected about every 31,560 days, or about 1 trading day in 126 years. And a 5-sigma event is to be expected every 3,483,046 days, or about 1 day every 13,932 years."

On 3/5, TQQQ closed at $81. I just got lucky, right? You should buy after a 5-sigma move, right? That's what fuckstick says:

"Big sigma moves happen all the time in markets, more than any other field where we collect and analyze historical data, because markets are social beasts subject to "wild randomness" that is not found in the physical sciences.
This was the primary lesson of Nassim Taleb's 2007 book The Black Swan, written before the financial crisis that found Wall Street bankers completely ignorant of randomness and the risks of ruin."
I also took advantage of the extreme 5-sigma sell-off by grabbing a leveraged ETF on the Nasdaq 100, the ProShares UltraPro QQQ TQQQ. In my plan, while I might debate the merits of buying AAPL or MSFT for hours, I knew I could immediately buy them both with TQQQ and be rewarded very quickly after the 14% plunge."

Ahahaha, fuckstick bought TQQQ at $70, cuz that's what you do after a random 5-sigma move, right? How many of you dumbasses did the same thing? Don't lie, I see you buying 3/5 on this TQQQ chart:
https://preview.redd.it/9ks35zdla5151.png?width=915&format=png&auto=webp&s=2c90d08494c52a1b874575ee233624e61ac27620
Meanwhile, on 3/3, I answered the question "Where do you see this ending up at in the next couple weeks? I have 3/20s" with "under 30 imo".

Well good fucking job, because a week later on 3/11, TQQQ closed at $61, and it kept going.
Nomura: Market staring into the abyss

"The plunge in US equities yesterday (12 March) pushed weekly returns down to 7.7 standard deviations below the norm. In statistical science, the odds of a greater-than seven-sigma event of this kind are astronomical to the point of being comical (about one such event every 160 billion years).

Let's see what Stephen Mathai-Davis, CFA, CQF, WTF, BBQ, Founder and CEO of Q.ai - Investing Reimagined, a Forbes Company, and a major fucktard has to say at this point:

"Our AI models are telling us to buy SPY (the SPDR S&P500 ETF and a great proxy for US large-cap stocks) but since all models are based on past data, does it really make sense? "
"While it may or may not make sense to buy stocks, it definitely is a good time to sell “volatility.” And yes, you can do it in your brokerage account! Or, you can ask your personal finance advisor about it."
"So what is the takeaway? I don’t know if now is the right time to start buying stocks again but it sure looks like the probabilities are in your favor to say that we are not going to experience another 7 standard deviation move in U.S. Stocks. OTM (out-of-the-money) Put Spreads are a great way to get some bullish exposure to a rally in the SPY while also shorting such rich volatility levels."

Good job, fuckfaces. Y'all bought this one too, admit it. I see you buying on this chart:
https://preview.redd.it/s9344geza5151.png?width=915&format=png&auto=webp&s=ebaef4b1414d901e6dafe354206ba39eb03cb199
Well guess what, by 3/18, a week later, we did get another 5 standard deviation move. TQQQ bottomed on 3/18 at $32.73. Still think that was just luck, punk? You know how many sigmas that was? Over 12 god-damn sigmas. 12 standard deviations. I'd have a much better chance of guessing everyone's buttcoin private key, in a row, on the first try. That's how unlikely that is.
https://preview.redd.it/luz0s3kbb5151.png?width=587&format=png&auto=webp&s=7542973d56c42e13efd3502331ac6cc5aea42630

"Hurr durr you said it's going to 0, so you're retarded because it didn't go to 0" - random_wsb_autist

Yeah, fuckface, because the Fed bailed ‘em out. Remember the $150b “overnight repo” bazooka on 3/17? That’s what that was, a bailout. A bailout for shitty funds and market makers like Trump's handjob buddy Kenny Griffin from Citadel. Why do you think Jamie Dimon had a heart attack in early March? He saw all the dogshit that everyone put on his books.

https://preview.redd.it/8fqvt37ama151.png?width=3711&format=png&auto=webp&s=0b06ee5101685c5274c6641a62ee9eb1a2a3f3ee

Read:
https://dealbreaker.com/2020/01/griffin-no-show-at-white-house
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/11/bank-ceos-convene-in-washington-with-president-trump-on-coronavirus.html
https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/914736/market-makers--didn-t-show-up-for-work--macro-risk-ceo-says-914736.html
https://www.chicagobusiness.com/finance-banking/chicago-trading-firms-seek-more-capital
https://www.housingwire.com/articles/did-non-qm-just-disappear-from-the-market/
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-22/bruised-hedge-funds-ask-clients-for-fresh-cash-to-buy-the-dip
https://fin24.com/Markets/Bonds/rand-bonds-rally-after-reserve-bank-intervention-20200320

Yup, everyone got clapped on their stupidly leveraged derivatives books. It seems Citadel is “too big to fail”. On 3/18, the payout on 3/20 TQQQ puts alone if it went to 0 was $468m. And every single TQQQ put expiration would have had to be paid. Tens or hundreds of billions on TQQQ puts alone. I’d bet my ass Citadel was on the hook for a big chunk of those. And that’s just a drop in the bucket compared to all the other blown derivative trades out there.

https://preview.redd.it/9ww27p2qb5151.png?width=2485&format=png&auto=webp&s=78f24265f3ea08fdbb37a4325f15ad9b61b0c694
Y’all still did good, 3/20 closed at $35. That’s $161m/$468m payoff just there. I even called you the bottom on 3/17, when I saw that bailout:

"tinygiraffe21 1 point 2 months ago
Haha when? I’m loading up in 4/17 25 puts"
"dlkdev
Scratch that, helicopter money is here."
"AfgCric 1 point 2 months ago
What does that mean?"
"It means the Fed & Trump are printing trillions with no end in sight. If they go through with this, this was probably the bottom."

"hurr durr, it went lower on 3/18 so 3/17 wasn't the bottom" - random_wsb_autist

Idiot, I have no way of knowing that Billy boy Ackman was going to go on CNBC and cry like a little bitch to make everyone dump, so he can get out of his shorts. Just like I have no way of knowing when the Fed decides to do a bailout. But you react to that, when you see it.
Do you think "Oh no world's ending" and go sell everything? No, dumbass, you try to figure out what Billy's doing. And in this case it was pretty obvious, Billy saw the Fed train coming and wanted to close his shorts. So you give the dude a hand, quick short in and out, and position for Billy dumping his short bags.
Video of Billy & the Fed train

Here's what Billy boy says:

“But if they don’t, and the government takes the right steps, this hedge could be worth zero, and the stock market could go right back up to where it was. So we made the decision to exit.”

https://www.businessinsider.sg/bill-ackman-explains-coronavirus-trade-single-best-all-time-podcast-2020-5
Also, “the single best trade of all time.” my ass, it was only a 100-bagger. I gave y’all a 150-bagger.
So how could I catch that? Because it wasn't random, yo. And I'm here to teach your asses how to try to spot such potential moves. But first, the technical bootcamp.

Chapter III. Mouthbreather's bootcamp on managing a position – THE TECHNICALS

RULE 1. YOU NEVER BUY OPTIONS AT OPEN. You NEVER OVERPAY for an option. You never FOMO into buying too fast. You NEVER EVER NEVER pump the premium on a play.
I saw you fuckers buying over 4k TQQQ 5/22 $45 puts in the first minutes of trading. You pumped the premium to over $0.50 dudes. The play's never going to work if you do that, because you give the market maker free delta, and he's going to hedge that against you. Let me explain simply:

Let's say a put on ticker $X at strike $50 is worth $1, and a put at strike $51 is worth $2.
If you all fomo in at once into the same strike, the market maker algos will just pull the asks higher. If you overpay at $2 for the $50p, the market maker will just buy $51ps for $2 and sell you $50ps for 2$. Or he'll buy longer-dated $50ps and sell you shorter-dated $50ps. Max risk for him is now 0, max gain is $1. You just gave him free downside insurance, so of course he's going to start going long. And you just traded against yourself, congrats.

You need to get in with patience, especially if you see other autists here wanting to go in at the same time. Don't step on each other's toes. You put in an order, and you wait for it to fill for a couple of seconds. If it doesn't fill, AND the price of the option hasn't moved much recently, you can bump the bid $0.01. And you keep doing that a few times. Move your strikes, if needed. Only get a partial fill or don't get a fill at all? You cancel your bid. Don't fucking leave it hanging there, or you're going to put a floor on the price. Let the mm algos chill out and go again later.

RULE 2. WATCH THE TIME. Algos are especially active at x:00, x:02, x:08, x:12, x:30 and x:58. Try not to buy at those times.
RULE 3. YOU USE MULTIPLE BROKERS. Don't just roll with Robinhood, you're just gimping yourself. If you don't have another one, open up a tasty, IB, TD, Schwab, whatever. But for cheap faggy puts (or calls), Robinhood is the best. If you want to make a play for which the other side would think "That's free money!", Robinhood is the best. Because Citadel will snag that free money shit like no other. Seriously, if you don't have a RH account, open one. It's great for making meme plays.

RULE 4. YOU DON'T START A TRADE WITH BIG POSITIONS. Doesn't matter how big or small your bankroll is. If you go all-in, you're just gambling, and the odds are stacked against you. You need to have extra cash to manage your positions. Which leads to
RULE 5. MANAGING YOUR WINNERS: Your position going for you? Good job! Now POUND THAT SHIT! And again. Move your strikes to cheaper puts/calls, and pound again. And again. Snowball those gains.
RULE 6A. POUND THOSE $0.01 PUTS:
So you bought some puts and they’re going down? Well, the moment they reach $0.01, YOU POUND THOSE PUTS (assuming there’s enough time left on them, not shit expiring in 2h). $0.01 puts have amazing risk/return around the time they reach $0.01. This is not as valid for calls. Long explanation why, but the gist of it is this: you know how calls have unlimited upside while puts have limited upside? Well it’s the reverse of that.
RULE 6B. MANAGING YOUR LOSERS:
Your position going against you? Do you close the position, take your loss porn and post it on wsb? WRONG DUMBASS. You manage that by POUNDING THAT SHIT. Again and again. You don't manage losing positions by closing. That removes your gainz when the market turns around. You ever close a position, just to have it turn out it would have been a winner afterwards? Yeah, don't do that. You manage it by opening other positions. Got puts? Buy calls. Got calls? Buy puts. Turn positions into spreads. Buy spreads. Buy the VIX. Sell the VIX. They wanna pin for OPEX? Sell them options. Not enough bankroll to sell naked? Sell spreads. Make them fight you for your money, motherfuckers, don't just give it away for free. When you trade, YOU have the advantage of choosing when and where to engage. The market can only react. That's your edge, so USE IT! Like this:

Example 1:
Initial TQQQ 5/22 position = $5,000. Starts losing? You pound it.

https://preview.redd.it/gq938ty8e5151.png?width=944&format=png&auto=webp&s=734ab7ed517f0e6822bfaaed5765d1272de398d1
Total pounded in 5/22 TQQQ puts = $10,824. Unfortunately expired worthless (but also goes to show I'm not selling you puts, dickwads)
Then the autists show up:

"Hahaha you lost all your money nice job you fucking idiot why do you even live?" - cscqb4

Wrong fuckface. You see the max pain at SPX 2975 & OPEX pin coming? Sell them some calls or puts (or spreads).

https://preview.redd.it/7nv23fr41a151.jpg?width=750&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=14a8879c975646ffbfe2942ca1982bfabfcf90df
Sold 9x5/20 SPX [email protected], bam +$6,390. Still wanna pin? Well have some 80x5/22 TQQQ $80cs, bam anotha +$14,700.

https://preview.redd.it/1iqtpmc71a151.jpg?width=750&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=df9b954131b0877f4acc43038b4a5a4acf544237
+$21,090 - $10,824 = +$10,266 => Turned that shit into a +94.85% gain.

.cscqb4 rn

You have a downside position, but market going up or nowhere? You play that as well. At least make some money back, if not profit.

Example 2:

5/22, long weekend coming right? So you use your brain & try to predict what could happen over the 3-day weekend. Hmm, 3 day weekend, well you should expect either a shitty theta-burn or maybe the pajama traders will try to pooomp that shite on the low volume. Well make your play. I bet on the shitty theta burn, but could be the other, idk, so make a small play.

Sold some ES_F spreads (for those unaware, ES is a 50x multiplier, so 1 SPX = 2 ES = 10 SPY, approximately). -47x 2955/2960 bear call spreads for $2.5. Max gain is $2.5, max loss is 2960-2955 = $5. A double-or-nothing basically. That's $5,875 in premium, max loss = 2x premium = $11,750.
Well, today comes around and futures are pumping. Up to 3,014 now. Do you just roll over? You think I'm gonna sit and take it up the ass? Nah bros that's not how you trade, you fucking fight them. How?
I have:
47x 2960 calls
-47x 2955 calls

Pajama traders getting all up in my grill? Well then I buy back 1 of the 2955 calls. Did that shit yesterday when futures were a little over 2980, around 2982-ish. Paid $34.75, initially shorted at $16.95, so booked a -$892 loss, for now. But now what do I have?

46x 2955/2960 bear calls
1x 2960 long call

So the fuckers can pump it. In fact, the harder they pump it, the more I make. Each $2.5 move up in the futures covers the max loss for 1 spread. With SPX now at ~3015, that call is $55 ITM. Covers 24/46 contracts rn. If they wanna run it up, at 3070 it's break-even. Over that, it's profit. I'll sell them some bear call spreads over 3050 if they run it there too. They gonna dump it? well under 2960 it's profit time again. They wanna do a shitty pin at 3000 today? Well then I'll sell them some theta there.
Later edit: that was written yesterday. Got out with a loss of only $1.5k out of the max $5,875. Not bad.
And that, my dudes, is how you manage a position.

RULE 7 (ESPECIALLY FOR BEARS). YOU DON'T KEEP EXTRA CASH IN YOUR BROKER ACCOUNT. You don't do it with Robinhood, because it's a shitty dumpsterfire of a broker. But you don't do it with other brokers either. Pull that shit out. Preferably to a bank that doesn't play in the markets either, use a credit union or some shit. Why? Because you're giving the market free liquidity. Free margin loans. Squeeze that shit out, make them work for it. Your individual cash probably doesn't make a dent, but a million autists with an extra $1200 trumpbucks means $1.2b. That's starting to move the needle. You wanna make a play, use instant deposits. And that way you don't lose your shit when your crappy ass broker or bank gets its ass blown up on derivative trades. Even if it's FDIC or SIPC insured, it's gonna take time until you see that money again.

Chapter IV. BUSTING YOUR RETARDED MYTHS

MYTH 1 - STONKS ONLY GO UP

Do you think the market can go up forever? Do you think stOnKs oNLy Go uP because Fed brrr? Do you think SPX will be at 5000 by the end of the month? Do you think $1.5 trillion is a good entry point for stonks like AAPL or MSFT? Do you want to buy garbage like Hertz or American Airlines because it's cheap? Did you buy USO at the bottom and are now proud of yourself for making $2? Well, this section is for you!
Let's clear up the misconception that stonks only go up while Fed brrrs.

What's your target for the SPX top? Think 3500 by the end of the year? 3500 by September? 4000? 4500? 5000? Doesn't matter, you can plug in your own variables.

Let's say SPX only goes up, a moderate 0.5% each period as a compounded avg. (i.e. up a bit down a bit whatever, doesn't matter as long as at the end of your period, if you look back and do the math, you'll get that number). Let's call this variable BRRR = 0.005.

Can you do the basic math to calculate the value at the end of x periods? Or did you drop out in 5th grade? Doesn't matter if not, I'll teach you.

Let's say our period is one week. That is, SPX goes up on average 0.5% each week on Fed BRRR:
2950 * (1.005^x), where x is the number of periods (weeks in this case)

So, after 1 month, you have: 2950 * (1.005^4) = 3009
After 2 months: 2950 * (1.005^8) = 3070
End of the year? 2950 * (1.005^28) = 3392

Now clearly, we're already at 3015 on the futures, so we're moving way faster than that. More like at a speed of BRRR = 1%/wk

2950 * (1.01^4) = 3069
2950 * (1.01^8) = 3194
2950 * (1.01^28) = 3897

Better, but still slower than a lot of permabulls would expect. In fact, some legit fucks are seriously predicting SPX 4000-4500 by September. Like this dude, David Hunter, "Contrarian Macro Strategist w/40+ years on Wall Street". IDIOTIC.
https://twitter.com/DaveHcontrarian/status/1263066368414568448

That'd be 2950 * (BRRR^12) = 4000 => BRRR = 1.0257 and 2950 * (BRRR^12) = 4500 => BRRR = 1.0358, respectively.

Here's why that can't happen, no matter the amount of FED BRRR: Leverage. Compounded Leverage.

There's currently over $100b in leveraged etfs with a 2.5x avg. leverage. And that's just the ones I managed to tally, there's a lot of dogshit small ones on top of that. TQQQ alone is now at almost $6b in AUM (topped in Fed at a little over $7b).

Now, let's try to estimate what happens to TQQQ's AUM when BRRR = 1.0257. 3XBRRR = 1.0771. Take it at 3XBRRR = 1.07 to account for slippage in a medium-volatility environment and ignore the fact that the Nasdaq-100 would go up more than SPX anyway.

$6,000,000,000 * (1.07^4) = $7,864,776,060
$6,000,000,000 * (1.07^8) = $10,309,100,000
$6,000,000,000 * (1.07^12) = $13,513,100,000
$6,000,000,000 * (1.07^28) = $39,893,000,000.

What if BRRR = 1.0358? => 3XBRR = 1.1074. Take 3XBRRR = 1.10.
$6,000,000,000 * (1.1^4) = $8,784,600,000
$6,000,000,000 * (1.1^8) = $12,861,500,000
$6,000,000,000 * (1.1^12) = $18,830,600,000
$6,000,000,000 * (1.1^28) = $86,526,000,000

And this would have to get 3x leveraged every day. And this is just for TQQQ.

Let's do an estimation for all leveraged funds. $100b AUM, 2.5 avg. leverage factor, BRRR = 1.0257 => 2.5BRRR = 1.06425

$100b * (1.06^4) = $128.285b
$100b * (1.06^8) = $159.385b
$100b * (1.06^12) = $201.22b
$100b * (1.06^28) = $511.169b

That'd be $1.25 trillion sloshing around each day. And the market would have to lose each respective amount of cash into these leveraged funds. Think the market can do that? You can play around with your own variables. But understand that this is just a small part of the whole picture, many other factors go into this. It's a way to put a simple upper limit on an assumption, to check if it's reasonable.

In the long run, it doesn't matter if the Fed goes BRRR, if TQQQ takes in it's share of 3XBRRR. And the Fed can't go 3XBRRR, because then TQQQ would take in 9XBRRR. And on top of this, you have a whole pile of leveraged derivatives on top of these leveraged things. Watch (or rewatch) this: Selena Gomez & Richard H. Thaler Explaining Synthetic CDO through BLACKJACK

My general point, at the mouth-breather level, is that Fed BRRR cannot be infinite, because leverage.
And these leveraged ETFs are flawed instruments in the first place. It didn't matter when they started out. TQQQ and SQQQ started out at $8m each. For the banks providing the swaps, for the market providing the futures contracts, whatever counter-party to whatever instrument they would use, that was fine. Because it balanced out. When TQQQ made a million, SQQQ lost a million (minus a small spread, which was the bank's profit). Bank was happy, in the long run things would even out. Slippage and spreads and fees would make them money. But then something happened. Stonks only went up. And leveraged ETFs got bigger and more and more popular.
And so, TQQQ ended up being $6-7b, while SQQQ was at $1b. And the same goes for all the other ETFs. Long leveraged ETF AUM became disproportionate to short AUM. And it matters a whole fucking lot. Because if you think of the casino, TQQQ walks up every day and says "I'd like to put $18b on red", while SQQQ walks up and says "I'd only like to put $3b on black". And that, in turn, forces the banks providing the swaps to either eat shit with massive losses, or go out and hedge. Probably a mix of both. But it doesn't matter if the banks are hedged, someone else is on the other side of those hedges anyway. Someone's eating a loss. Can think of it as "The Market", in general, eating the loss. And there's only so much loss the market can eat before it craps itself.

If you were a time traveller, how much money do you think you could make by trading derivatives? Do you think you could make $20 trillion? You know the future prices after all... But no, you couldn't. There isn't enough money out there to pay you. So you'd move the markets by blowing them up. Call it the Time-travelling WSB Autist Paradox.

If you had a bucket with a hole in the bottom, even if you poured an infinite amount of water into it, it would never be full. Because there's a LIQUIDITY SINK, just like there is one in the markets.
And that, my mouth-breathing friends, is the reason why FED BRRR cannot be infinite. Or alternatively, "STONKS MUST GO BOTH UP AND DOWN".

MYTH 2 - YOU CAN'T TIME THE MARKET

On Jan 14, 2020, I predicted this: Assuming that corona doesn't become a problem, "AAPL: Jan 28 $328.3, Jan 31 $316.5, April 1 $365.7, May 1 $386, July 1 $429 December 31 $200."
Now take a look at the AAPL chart in January. After earnings AAPL peaked at $327.85. On 1/31, after the 1st hour of trading, when the big boys make moves, it was at $315.63. Closed 1/31 at $309.51. Ya think I pulled this one out of my ass too?
Yes you can time it. Flows, motherfucker, flows. Money flow moves everything. And these days, we have a whole lot of RETARDED FLOW. Can't even call it dumb flow, because it literally doesn't think. Stuff like:

ETF flows. If MSFT goes up and AAPL goes down, part of that flow is going to move from AAPL to MSFT. Even if MSFT flash-crashes up to $1000, the ETF will still "buy". Because it's passive.
Option settlement flows. Once options expire, money is going to flow from one side to another, and that my friends is accurately predictable from the data.
Index rebalancing flows
Buyback flows
401k passive flows
Carry trade flows
Tax day flows
Flows of people front-running the flows

And many many others. Spot the flow, and you get an edge. How could I predict where AAPL would be after earnings within 50 cents and then reverse down to $316 2 days later? FLOWS MOTHERFUCKER FLOWS. The market was so quiet in that period, that is was possible to precisely figure out where it ended up. Why the dump after? Well, AAPL earnings (The 8-K) come out on a Wednesday. The next morning, after market opens the 10-Q comes out. And that 10-Q contains a very important nugget of information: the latest number of outstanding shares. But AAPL buybacks are regular as fuck. You can predict the outstanding shares before the market gets the 10-Q. And that gives you EDGE. Which leads to

MYTH 3 - BUYBACKS DON'T MATTER

Are you one of those mouthbreathers that parrots the phrase "buybacks are just a tax-efficient way to return capital to shareholders"? Well sit the fuck down, I have news for you. First bit of news, you're dumb as shit. Second bit:

On 1/28, AAPL's market cap is closing_price x free_float_outstanding_shares. But that's not the REAL MARKET CAP. Because the number of outstanding shares is OLD AS FUCK. When the latest number comes out, the market cap changes instantly. And ETFs start moving, and hedges start being changed, and so on.

"But ETFs won't change the number of shares they hold, they will still hold the same % of AAPL in the index" - random_wsb_autist

Oh my fucking god you're dumb as fuck. FLOWS change. And the next day, when TQQQ comes by and puts its massive $18b dong on the table, the market will hedge that differently. And THAT CAN BE PREDICTED. That's why AAPL was exactly at $316 1 hour after the market opened on 1/31.

So, what can you use to spot moves? Let me show you:
Market topped on 2/19. Here’s SPY. I even marked interesting dates for you with vertical lines.

https://preview.redd.it/7agm171eh5151.png?width=3713&format=png&auto=webp&s=d94b90dcd634c8dc688925585bf0a02c3299f71b
Nobody could have seen it coming, right? WRONG AGAIN. Here:

https://preview.redd.it/i1kdp3cgh5151.png?width=3713&format=png&auto=webp&s=7a1e086e9217846547efd3b6c5249f4a7ebe6d9e
In fact, JPYUSD gave you two whole days to see it. Those are NOT normal JPYUSD moves. But hey maybe it’s just a fluke? Wrong again.

https://preview.redd.it/fsyhenckh5151.png?width=3693&format=png&auto=webp&s=03200e10b008257ae15d40b474c4cf4d8c23670f
Forex showed you that all over the place. Why? FLOWS MOTHERFUCKER FLOWS. When everything moves like that, it means the market needs CASH. It doesn’t matter why, but remember people pulling cash out of ATMs all over the world? Companies drawing massive revolvers? Just understand what this flow means.
The reversal:
https://preview.redd.it/4xe97l0oh5151.png?width=1336&format=png&auto=webp&s=07aaa93f6b1d8f542101e40e431edccbc109918f
https://preview.redd.it/v6i0pdmoh5151.png?width=1338&format=png&auto=webp&s=74d5589961db2f978d4d582e6d7c58a85f6305f9
But it wasn’t just forex. Gold showed it to you as well. Bonds showed it to you as well.
https://preview.redd.it/40j53u8th5151.png?width=3711&format=png&auto=webp&s=fe39ab51321d0f98149d33e33253e69f96c48e23
Even god damn buttcoin showed it to you.
https://preview.redd.it/43lvafhvh5151.png?width=3705&format=png&auto=webp&s=1ef53283cbc0fb97f71c1ba935c0bd747809636e
And they all did it for 2 days before the move hit equities.

Chapter V. LIQUIDITY NUKE INBOUND
You see all these bankruptcies that happened so far, and all the ones that are going to follow? Do you think that’s just dogshit companies and it won’t have major effects on anything outside them? WRONG.
Because there’s a lot of leveraged instruments on top of those equities. When the stock goes to 0, all those outstanding puts across all expirations get instantly paid.
Understand that Feb-March was a liquidity MOAB. But this will end with a liquidity nuke.
Here’s just HTZ for example: $239,763,550 in outstanding puts. Just on a single dogshit small-cap company (this thing was like $400m mkt. cap last week).
And that’s just the options on the equity. There’s also instruments on etfs that hold HTZ, on the bonds, on the ETFs that hold their bonds, swaps, warrants, whatever. It’s a massive pile of leverage.
Then there’s also the ripple effects. Were you holding a lot of HTZ in your brokerage margin account? Well guess what big boi, when that gaps to 0 you get a margin call, and then you become a liquidity drain. Holding long calls? 0. Bonds 0. DOG SHIT!
And the market instantly goes from holding $x in assets (HTZ equity / bonds / calls) to holding many multiples of x in LIABILITIES (puts gone wrong, margin loans, derivatives books, revolvers, all that crap). And it doesn’t matter if the Fed buys crap like HTZ bonds. You short them some. Because when it hits 0, it’s no longer about supply and demand. You get paid full price, straight from Jerome’s printer. Is the Fed going to buy every blown up derivative too? Because that's what they'd have to do.
Think of liquidity as a car. The faster it goes, the harder it becomes to go even faster. At some point, you can only go faster by driving off a cliff. THE SQUEEZE. But you stop instantly when you hit the ground eventually. And that’s what shit’s doing all over the place right now.
Rewatch: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3hG4X5iTK8M
And just like that fucker, “I’m standing in front of a burning house, and I’m offering you fire insurance on it.”

Don’t baghold!
Now is not the time to baghold junk. Take your cash. Not the time to buy cheap crap. You don’t buy Hertz. You don’t buy USO. You don’t buy airlines, or cruises, or GE, or motherfucking Disney. And if you have it, dump that shit.
And the other dogshit that’s at ATH, congrats you’re in the green. Now you take your profits and fucking dump that shit. I’m talking shit like garbage SaaS, app shit, AI shit, etc. Garbage like MDB, OKTA, SNAP, TWLO, ZM, CHGG etc.
And you dump those garbage ass leveraged ETFs. SQQQ, TQQQ, whatever, they’re all dogshit now.
The leverage MUST unwind. And once that’s done, some of you will no longer be among us if you don’t listen. A lot of leveraged ETFs will be gone. Even some non-leveraged ETFs will be gone. Some brokers will be gone, some market makers will be gone, hell maybe even some big bank has to go under. I can’t know which ones will go poof, but I can guarantee you that some will. Another reason to diversify your shit. There’s a reason papa Warrant Buffet dumped his bags, don’t think you’re smarter than him. He may be senile, but he’s still a snake.
And once the unwind is done, THEN you buy whatever cheap dogshit’s still standing.
Got it? Good.
You feel ready to play yet? Alright, so you catch a move. Or I post a move and you wanna play it. You put on a small position. When it’s going your way, YOU POUND DAT SHIT. Still going? Well RUSH B CYKA BLYAT AND PLANT THE GOD DAMN 3/20 $30p BOMB.

Chapter VI - The mouthbreather-proof play - THE AKIMBO
Still a dumbass that can’t make a play? Still want to go long? Well then, I got a dumbass-proof trade for you. I present to you THE AKIMBO:

STEP 1. You play this full blast. You need some real Russian hardbass to get you in the right mood for trading, cyka.
STEP 2. Split your play money in 3. Remember to keep extra bankroll for POUNDING THAT SHIT.
STEP 3. Use 1/3 of your cash to buy SQQQ 9/18 $5p, pay $0.05. Not more than $0.10.
STEP 4. Use 1/3 of your cash to buy TQQQ 9/18 $20p, pay around $0.45. Alternatively, if you’re feeling adventurous, 7/17 $35p’s for around $0.5.
STEP 5. Use 1/3 of your cash to buy VIX PUT SPREADS 9/15 $21/$20 spread for around $0.15, no more than $0.25. That is, you BUY the 21p and SELL the 20p. Only using Robinhood and don’t have the VIX? What did I just tell you? Well fine, use UVXY then. Just make sure you don’t overpay.

Chapter VII - Quick hints for non-mouthbreathers
Quick tips, cuz apparently I'm out of space, there's a 40k character limit on reddit posts. Who knew?

Proshares is dogshit. If you don't understand the point in my last post, do this: download https://accounts.profunds.com/etfdata/ByFund/SQQQ-historical_nav.csv and https://accounts.profunds.com/etfdata/ByFund/SQQQ-psdlyhld.csv. Easier to see than with TQQQ. AUM: 1,174,940,072. Add up the value of all the t-bills = 1,686,478,417.49 and "Net other assets / cash". It should equal the AUM, but you get 2,861,340,576. Why? Because that line should read: NET CASH = -$511,538,344.85
Major index rebalancing June 22.
Watch the violent forex moves.
6/25 will be red. Don't ask, play a spread, bag a 2x-er.
6/19 will be red.
Not settled yet, but a good chance 5/28 is red.
Front run the rebalance. Front-run the front-runners of the rebalance too. TQQQ puts.
Major retard flow in financials yesterday. Downward pressure now. GS 180 next weeks looks good.
Buy leaps puts on dogshit bond ETFs (check holdings for dogshit)
Buy TLT 1/15/2021 $85ps for cheap, sell over $1 when the Fed stops the ass rape, rinse and repeat
TQQQ flow looks good:

https://preview.redd.it/untvykuxea151.jpg?width=750&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=a0a38c0acb088ebff689d043e48466eb76d38e2f

Good luck. Dr. Retard TQQQ Burry out.

Biden wins election - Dollar depreciation, stocks turning back? So far, Democratic candidate Joe Biden has maintained a leading position over President Donald Trump in opinion polls as well as surpassing the current president on fundraising in June and All business owners and investment funds are preparing for a scenario Mr. Biden could be elected president of the United States.
Some managers of firms or investment funds have prepared for Mr. Biden's ability to win by betting that the dollar will depreciate and reduce cash flow into US stocks.
Analysts say a bid by Mr Biden - as well as the ability of the Democratic Party to control the House and Senate - could threaten Trump-promoted policies and are often held by investors and businesspeople. Wall Street advocates, including lower corporate taxes and fewer regulations.
According to investment firm Amundi Pioneer Asset Management, if Mr. Biden is in power, the tax on businesses is likely to increase to 28%, reversing half of the reduction that Mr. Trump and Congress controlled by the Republican Party have made. at the end of 2017.
Paresh Upadhyaya, portfolio manager at Amundi Pioneer Asset Management, analyzed the above tax increase could reduce about $ 20 per share of S&P 500 companies, causing investors to withdraw from US stocks and damage the dollar. The company is now betting that the dollar will depreciate.
Arthur Laffer Jr., portfolio manager at Laffer Tengler Investments, pulled out of the dollar last week and believes that a Biden win could lead to slower growth and put pressure on the dong. US money.
Analysts at UBS Global Wealth Management wrote in a letter to investors that the possibility of a new Democratic Party administration could be a drag on energy and financial stocks.
However, many investors still do not believe that a Biden victory or the possibility that the Democratic Party controls parliament is a bad omen for stocks, especially when the Federal Reserve is expected to do so. Final blockade for the US economy if needed.
Sam Hendel, President of Levin Easterly Partners, said: " As long as the stimulus is sustained ... that way we will continue to see asset prices still buoy."
Some investors are also cautious about not believing in the polls, after many failed to predict the UK's decision to leave the European Union and Trump's victory in the election. US presidential appointments, both taking place in 2016.
The latest Reuters / Ipsos poll showed Mr. Biden leading Mr. Trump by 8 percentage points among registered voters. Credit for Mr. Trump's handling of the corona virus pandemic has dropped sharply.
Credit rating of the US president is declining. According to a survey published by Pew Research Center on June 30, up to 87% of Americans are "dissatisfied" about the current state of the country. On the Republican voter side, only 19% were "satisfied", compared with a 55% rate polled in April.
President Donald Trump once said that if the US had 100,000 people died of corona virus, that would be a positive result. But as of July 2, 2020, the United States had more than 128,000 deaths and that number will not stop there, as there are nearly 48,000 new infections every day, even going up to 100,000, if There are no tighter measures.
Since the end of June, Mr. Trump no longer personally meets the daily news about the epidemic, he is temporarily silent, except for the June 30 tweet saying he "is increasingly indignant towards China when he sees the great the epidemic spreads a horrifying face around the world, which causes heavy damage to the US ".
Against this backdrop, US President Donald Trump seemed to change his stance on wearing masks in public when he said in an interview that he "completely support wearing a mask . ”
Photo: US President Donald Trump gave his opinion on wearing the page during a Ford factory visit in Michigan
Mr. Trump told Fox Business: “ I fully support the mask. I think wearing a mask is good. Everyone saw me wear it once . ”
On July 1, Mr. Trump also said: “ I wore a mask. I also like the look of my mask. OK. I think that is okay. It was a black mask and I thought it looked okay . ”
The US president added: " It looks like the Lone Ranger ." Lone Ranger is a fictional hero in the movie Western West America, specializing in wearing a black mask and along with Tonto, a native American friend, fought illegally in the western United States.
“ I have no problem with that. If people feel good, they should . ”
Trump's comments came shortly after Republican lawmakers asked him to wear a mask in public to set a good example for Americans.
Recently, many Republicans and members of the White House corona virus task force have been more outspoken in supporting Americans to wear masks in public places when disease spread throughout the region. south and west america.
Republicans and conservative presidential media took part in calls for masks. These include Vice President Mike Pence, head of the US COVID-19 task force; Republican Senate leader Mitch McConnell; Senator Mitt Romney and Senator Liz Cheney.
On Tuesday, U.S. Director of Infectious Diseases, Dr. Anthony Fauci, told lawmakers that the number of new U.S. coronavirus infections could reach 100,000 per day and not enough Americans wear masks or respect. rules of social spacing.
Mr. Trump has not been interested in wearing a mask for a long time, because for him, this is a sign that the administration is in crisis.
Screenshot of April 12's Twitter post of President Donald Trump 's daughter , Ivanka Trump, encouraging people to wear masks when going to public places
In early April, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) recommended that people wear masks in public places where social isolation measures are difficult to maintain.
Mr. Trump immediately spoke down on the CDC guidelines. He said: " I don't think I will do it ... Wear a mask when I salute presidents, prime ministers, dictators, kings, queens - I just can't figure it out ."
But Mr. Trump has repeatedly stressed that the decision to follow official medical instructions about wearing a mask is a personal decision.
Last month, he told the Wall Street Journal that some people only wore masks as a political statement against him. In May, during a visit to a factory in Michigan, he told reporters that he had removed his mask before standing in front of the camera because "he did not want to give the press the pleasure of seeing him wearing it".
The White House defended the president's choice by saying that everyone who came into contact with him was checked regularly for corona viruses, and so did Mr. Trump himself.
The President's daughter and his Senior Advisor, Ivanka Trump, are also seen wearing masks in public. She also goes to social media to encourage this.
The fact that the president needs to wear a mask for the public has been a topic of debate for several days. Even Steve Doocy, Donald Trump's favorite Fox News presenter, had to say, " I think if the president wears a mask, then maybe it's a good example."
Even some Republican congressmen, like Lamar Alexander, chairman of the Senate Health Committee, said: " This simple measure that can save lives is part of the political debate." that is, Trump's supporters will not wear masks, but if they are against Trump, they will. "
Democratic presidential candidate, former Vice President Joe Biden, last week said he would make a mandatory mandate to wear a mask if elected.
Photo: Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden (on the right) with his wife, Jill Biden, and a black mask when visiting a wreath at the WWII and Korean War Memorial in Delaware today. 5/25)
Joe Biden also recently announced that he will not hold elections while the corona virus pandemic is still ongoing.
At a press conference in Delware, Mr. Biden said: " This is the most unusual campaign, I think, in modern history. "
On Tuesday, Biden told reporters:" T O will obey doctors - not only for ourselves but also for the country - and that means I will not organize campaigns run for . ”
And his opponent, President Donald Trump, had a rally in Tulsa, Oklahoma on June 20, with lower-than-expected attendance. Earlier, the presidential campaign team also asked participants to sign a pledge not to sue if they were infected with corona virus during a rally. So far, his election commission has declared no new campaign.
Citing the pandemic, Mr. Biden was limited in public appearance, conducting interviews from a temporary TV studio in his basement, causing Trump's campaign to name him " Hidin Biden".
Also on Tuesday, Mr. Biden attacked the president about handling the pandemic. Biden scoffed at Trump's statement that he was "a war president" when he said: "It seems our wartime president surrendered, waved the white flag and left the battlefield. "
He also criticized the White House boss when he said," Month after month, when other leaders and the Other countries take the necessary steps to stop the virus, Donald Trump has let us down. ”
Biden's announcement came as top epidemiologist Dr. Anthony Fauci told the US Senate that he would " not be surprised " if new infections in the country reached 100,000 every day. . Dr. Fauci told the Senate: " It is clear that we cannot control the situation now."
Not only leading the way in recent public opinion polls, the Democratic presidential candidate, former Vice President Joe Biden, also outperformed President Donald Trump's fundraising campaign in May. 6 and in the second quarter of the election year, continued spectacular comeback in his campaign.
A spokesman for the former vice president said on Tuesday evening that Biden and the National Democratic Party Committee raised $ 141 million in June, bringing their total in the second quarter to more than 282 million. dollars.
Earlier on the same day, Republicans announced that Trump and the Republican Party raised $ 131 million in June and $ 266 million this quarter. The Associated Press news agency quoted the campaign as saying that the president's re-election campaign was still nearly $ 300 million in cash by the end of June.
Biden's campaign has not disclosed its cash figures, but according to the AP, the figure will be much lower than Trump's campaign. By the end of May, the Democratic Party had about 122 million dollars.
In recent weeks, Biden's top aides and allies have closed this gap and noted that Mr. Trump spends a lot on advertising and voter access.
Still according to the AP, Mr. Trump's campaign with abundant budgets will allow the president to start early in everything, from pre-ordering television ads to building data operations targeting online supporters.
https://preview.redd.it/1ck1h6f1pva51.jpg?width=1024&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=caefa9fdc3f43c7faa91f85367786ebe16f47d2a

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https://preview.redd.it/lqqhr0d3pva51.jpg?width=1024&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=29277bbd41c7adaba995976baa3d3c0f2044960a

In the financial circles, a contract for difference (CFD) is a contract between two parties,described as "buyer" and "seller", this contract stipulates that the buyer will pay to the seller the difference between the current value of an asset and its value at contract time.
History
Developed in London by Brian Keelan and Jon Wood, both of UBS Warburg, on their Trafalgar House, in the 90s CFDs was an instrument used as a type of equity swap that was traded on margin. It was introduced to retail traders. They were popularized by a number of UK companies, characterized by innovative online trading platforms that made it easy to see live prices and trade in real time. The first company to do this was GNI. They were followed by IG Markets and CMC Markets who started to popularize the service in 2000. The year after, some CFD providers realized that CFDs had the same economic effect as financial spread betting in the UK except that spread betting profits were exempt from Capital Gains Tax. Most CFD providers launched financial spread betting operations in parallel to their CFD offering. In the UK, the CFD market mirrors the financial spread betting market and the products are in many ways the same. Subsequently CFD providers then started to expand to overseas markets, starting with Australia in July 2002 by IG Markets and CMC Markets. CFDs have since been introduced into a number of other countries. They are available in Australia, Austria, Canada, Cyprus, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Japan, The Netherlands, Luxembourg, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Russia, Singapore, South Africa, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, United Kingdom and New Zealand. They are not permitted in a number of other countries – most notably the United States, where, due to rules about over the counter products, CFDs cannot be traded by retail investors unless on a registered exchange and there are no exchanges in the US that offer CFDs. In 2016 the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) issued a warning on the sale of speculative products to retail investors that unfortunately included CFD sales.
There are many risks involved in CFD transactions. These are divided into 3. These are Market risk, Liquidation risk and Counterparty risk.
How does Koinpro step into all these?
Koinpro is a crypto exchange of currencies in circulation. You can buy and sell some top coins like BTC, ETH, LTC, USDT, XRP with extremely preferential fees.We have a lot of regular exchanges, both crypto and fiat(mainstream and otherwise) trading tools like CFD, oil, futures etc; but not one of them integrates them like Koinpro. Its a no-brainer choice, since going for KoinPro’s unique double-UP contract, customers can simply enter into a predefined order position that will automatically terminate when the position either gains or loses 100% of its value, or when the contract expires — whichever comes first. Thus newbies and professionals, can trade any futures can easily benefit from trading with 100x leverage, without exposing themselves to the all too familiar risk of volatility associated with cryptocurrencies. Koinpro also reduces the risk of trading, especially that of CFDs with its in-depth insurance policy with Bitgo.
https://koinpro.com/
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5219842

Hi
This is something more of a curiosity. In the UK we can trade Forex using spread betting so any gains are totally tax free.
However, lets say for some reason you were using a different method. Maybe you were using a broker in another country, or trading Forex using a CFD account. What asset is Forex categorised under for Capital Gains Tax (CGT)?
Looking at the government CGT website, it includes shares as being subject to CGT but not Forex, it does also state that selling coins is subject to it. However, Forex is neither shares nor coins; coins being physical objects.
And just thinking of this as I type, it also states that CGT is paid on assets. It's arguable though that currency isn't an asset but merely a tool used to purchase assets. After all, there is the often used distinction of people being "cash rich" or "asset rich". Doesn't it blur the line between the distinction of money and assets if you have to pay a tax which is meant to be applied to an increase in value of an asset itself rather than means of exchange?
I'm sure there's plenty of legal rulings on this, and this sub will be quite biased on the subject (shouldn't be taxed). Wondering on peoples thoughts on the later.
Having a few showerthoughts this morning.

Welcome to Lost in the Sauce, keeping you caught up on political and legal news that often gets buried in distractions and theater. (the previous edition can be found here if you are super behind).
House-keeping:

How to read: the headings will guide you through this piece. The Main Course covers the “big” stories and The Sides covers the “smaller” stories. IF YOU FOLLOW THE NEWS CLOSELY: you likely know about the stories in the Main Course section, so you will be best served by scrolling down to The Sides portion.
How to support: If you enjoy my work, please consider becoming a patron. I do this to keep track and will never hide behind a paywall, but these projects take a lot of time and effort to create. Even a couple of dollars a month helps. Since someone asked a few weeks ago (thank you!), here's a PayPal option
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Let’s dig in!

MAIN COURSE

Trump’s incompetence, authoritarian patterns continue with coronavirus response

In a standalone piece published yesterday, I go over Trump’s response to the coronavirus, how he made the spread inevitable, and the impact of Trump’s authoritarian impulses.

Nadler launches Barr investigation

House Judiciary Committee Chairman Jerrold Nadler sent Attorney General Bill Barr a letter last week requesting a slew of interviews and documents in preparation for Barr’s scheduled testimony at the end of March.
Most notably, Nadler requested interviews with the four career prosecutors who withdrew from Roger Stone’s case after Barr intervened to recommend a lower sentence (which Stone received): Aaron Zelinsky, Adam Jed, Michael Marando, and Jonathan Kravis. John Durham, who is leading Barr’s investigation of the origins of the Russia probe, is also on the list, as is Jessie Liu, who supervised not only Stone’s case, but also the attempted prosecution of Andrew McCabe.

“Although you serve at the president’s pleasure, you are also charged with the impartial administration of our laws. In turn, the House Judiciary Committee is charged with holding you to that responsibility.”

While it is likely that Barr won’t comply with many of these requests, Nadler may issue subpoenas directly to individuals of interest. As Democrats learned during the impeachment hearing, career officials are more likely to be forthright and honest about the Trump administration’s crimes and misdeeds.

Court rulings

McGahn’s testimony

A divided three-judge panel of the D.C. Appeals Court dismissed the House Judiciary Committee’s lawsuit against former White House Counsel Don McGahn, ruling that federal courts have no role to play in disputes between the Executive and Legislative branches. The two judges who ruled in favor of the Trump administration - Thomas Griffith and Karen Henderson - were appointed by George W. Bush and George H.W. Bush, respectively. The pair write that Congress should use other tools to try to compel McGahn’s testimony:

“Congress (or one of its chambers) may hold officers in contempt, withhold appropriations, refuse to confirm the President’s nominees, harness public opinion, delay or derail the President’s legislative agenda, or impeach recalcitrant officers.”

It should be mentioned that the majority does not mention the fact that during the impeachment trial Trump’s lawyers argued that Congress should pursue its subpoenas to executive branch witnesses in court.
Judge Judith Rogers, a Bill Clinton appointee, wrote a lengthy dissent that is worth reading in full (starting on the 58th page of this document)

“The court removes any incentive for the Executive Branch to engage in the negotiation process seeking accommodation, all but assures future Presidential stonewalling of Congress, and further impairs the House’s ability to perform its constitutional duties… Future presidents may direct wide-scale noncompliance with lawful congressional inquiries, secure in the knowledge that Congress can do little to enforce a subpoena dramatically undermining its ability to fulfill its constitutional obligations now and going forward.”

Unfair competition suit

Trump also racked up a win in an “Emoluments-adjacent” lawsuit last week: a three-judge panel of the D.C. Appeals Court united to dismiss a wine bar’s claim that President Trump's D.C. hotel is unfairly undermining the business of other venues in the city. Judge Thomas Griffith, a George W. Bush appointee, and Reagan appointee Judge Stephen Williams joined Judge Merrick Garland in the ruling.

Though it is undisputed that the wine bar has experienced a downturn since Trump took office — his gilded hotel now attracting lobbyists, advocacy groups and diplomats who used to frequent the local business — the appeals court said no evidence suggests that the president or his hotel interfered in Cork’s business.
The lawsuit “boiled down to an assertion that businesses with famous proprietors cannot compete fairly — a proposition alien to unfair-competition law,” Griffith wrote summarizing the 2017 dismissal of the case by U.S. District Judge Richard Leon.

Purge confirmed

As I explained in last Sunday’s post, Trump is seeking to purge any disloyal officials from his administration. Newly-returned staffer John McEntee is leading the search for “Never Trumpers” with the assistance of a network of conservative activists including Ginni Thomas, the wife of Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas. On Monday, White House spokesman Hogan Gidley confirmed that the White House is identifying employees seen as disloyal to force out of their positions.

“It’s not a secret that we want people in positions that work with this president, not against him, and too often we have people in this government—I mean the federal government is massive, with millions of people—and there are a lot people out there taking action against this president and when we find them we will take appropriate action,” Gidley said.
“Time and time again we see in the media reports from people in the bowels of the federal government working against this president...The president's been pretty clear about the fact he wants people in this administration who want to forward his agenda. Donald Trump was the only one elected. He was the only one that the American people voted for. They didn't vote for someone at any of these other agencies, any of these other departments.” he said.

Unqualified loyalists

One of those purged from the administration, DNI Joseph Maguire, was fired for allowing his top aide to brief Congress on Russia’s intervention in the 2020 election to Trump’s benefit. Last week, Trump said he will nominate Republican Rep. John Ratcliffe to fill the position - again. Trump previously announced his intent to nominate Ratcliffe in July, but withdrew the nomination five days later after members of both parties questioned his qualifications.

Ratcliffe rewind: Following Trump’s announcement last year, “key Republicans in Congress quickly signaled that Ratcliffe lacked the national security expertise that the job requires by law.” Ratcliffe also lied to inflate his resume: “Records and interviews with former colleagues also showed that Ratcliffe had exaggerated his role in terrorism and immigration enforcement cases when he served as a federal prosecutor in Texas. During his campaign and on his congressional website, Ratcliffe had boasted that he ‘arrested 300 illegal immigrants on a single day.’ That turned out not to be true. Former colleagues also said he didn’t play a significant role in a major terrorism case as he has claimed.” (WaPo or non-paywalled)

The current acting-DNI, Ric Grenell, can only serve until March 11 unless a permanent replacement is formally submitted to the Senate for confirmation. The Federal Vacancies Reform Act allows Grenell to remain in position throughout the confirmation process and - should Ratcliffe fail - another 210 days after. If a second person is nominated, the clock “resets” again.

To add onto previous reports of how massively inappropriate Grenell’s appointment is, ProPublica revealed that the new spy chief once got over $100,000 from the Hungarian government, but never reported it. Failing to register as a foreign agent would normally be something the DOJ would jump at prosecuting. Senate Majority leader Chuck Schumer wrote a letter to the Justice Department last week asking the assistant attorney general for national security to "immediately investigate." Grenell also wrote op-eds in 2016 defending Vladimir Plahotniuc, a Moldovan politician, and allegedly failed to disclose payments for his work on behalf of the oligarch.
What is the play here? The White House may believe that Ratcliffe is likely to be confirmed because Grenell is so ill suited for the job that Ratcliffe looks better in comparison. Alternatively, Trump is likely comfortable with Grenell as acting-DNI. Knowing that he would never survive the confirmation process, Trump may be using the generous time limits of the Federal Vacancies Reform Act to circumvent the Senate to keep his unqualified loyalist in the position in an acting capacity.
Rep. Robin Kelly, a member of the Oversight National Security subcommittee, introduced legislation last week that would mandate unconfirmed national security leaders testify before oversight committees every 45 days. “...this Administration has consistently used the ‘acting’ denotation to skirt these rules and limit Congressional oversight of our national security...The American people deserve better. They deserve to know who is responsible for protecting their families and our security. Congress must hold these individuals and any Administration accountable to the highest level of oversight and transparency to protect our national security.”

The effect of Trump’s grip on intel

The NSA, CIA, and Pentagon have been urged by the White House not to share information about Russia and Ukraine with lawmakers, while the “Gang of Eight” senior members of Congress were bypassed leading up to at least one major intelligence operation. And intelligence community leaders have backed out of the public portion of the annual worldwide threats hearing, fearing Trump’s wrath if their assessments don’t align with his.
“We have an enemy of the United States that is conducting information warfare against us and our executive leadership doesn’t want to hear it, doesn’t want the Congress to hear it, and doesn’t want the people to hear it,” said former acting DNI David Gompert, who said he was “aghast” at the hiring of Grenell. “We now have a situation where the principal objective, evidently, of this acting DNI is to ensure that information about Russian interference and Russian preference for this particular president does not get out.” (Politico)

Ukrainian officials have noticed Trump’s purge and worry that efforts to force out individuals “would in the short term leave a hollowed out U.S. office in Kyiv and space for Russia to ratchet up its aggressive political influence operations.”

“Russia is getting more ambitious. They are already taking an aggressive position. Putin knows what he wants and he does not need to seek approval for his actions inside Russia let alone outside of Russia,” Danylyuk said. “There are not enough people in the administration—in the U.S. administration—to focus on Ukraine and Russia issues. A lot of people left. It will not be easy to find several counterparts.

THE SIDES

March is SCOTUS month

This month, several highly-charged issues will be heard by the Supreme Court, setting up potentially-massive changes to the legal framework of our country.
This week, Trump’s conservative appointees get their first chance to consider new curbs on abortion rights as the court examines the legality of a Louisiana law that could force two of the state’s three clinics that perform the procedure to shut down.

The case, June Medical Services v. Russo, pertains to a law passed in 2014 that requires doctors performing abortions to have admitting privileges to local hospitals. This requirement has proven to be unnecessary for clinics (an abortion rarely results in complications, and if one did, the patient would be admitted to a hospital regardless of the doctor’s privileges). And it’s so difficult to implement that when Texas passed a similar law, it shut down half the state’s clinics. (Buzzfeed News)
While it is overwhelmingly likely that five justices will vote to uphold Louisiana’s law, there is some uncertainty about how they will do so. It is possible that the Court will overrule Roe v. Wade outright. But it is at least as likely that the Court will leave Roe nominally in place while simultaneously watering down the abortion right to such a degree that it loses meaning in red states. The Court often prefers to create the impression that it will not allow the law to swing wildly according to the justices’ whims. (Vox)

Also this week, the court will hear arguments on whether Congress exceeded constitutional boundaries in 2010 when it created the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. The Trump administration believes the independent structure of the CFPB is unconstitutional and wants the president to have more control over the agency. For instance, Trump wants to be able to fire the director at will.

A court ruling on the President's removal power could affect a multitude of independent agencies including the Federal Trade Commission, Federal Energy Regulatory Commission and Federal Reserve Board. For more than a century, Congress has been creating such agencies within the executive branch with directors who can only be removed only "for cause." (CNN)

Finally, on March 31, the high court will hear arguments in three cases involving House Democrats’ and New York state prosecutors’ attempts to obtain years of Trump’s financial records and tax returns.
Last week, Trump called for Supreme Court Justices Sonia Sotomayor and Ruth Bader Ginsburg to recuse themselves from these three cases. Ginsberg criticized Trump’s character during his 2016 campaign, though she later apologized. Trump did not explain his reasoning for calling for Sotomayor’s recusal, other than her authoring of a dissent critical of the conservative justices on the court.

“Perhaps most troublingly, the Court’s recent behavior on stay applications has benefited one litigant over all others. This Court often permits executions — where the risk of irreparable harm is the loss of life — to proceed, justifying many of those decisions on purported failures ‘to raise any potentially meritorious claims in a timely manner,’” she wrote. “Yet the Court’s concerns over quick decisions wither when prodded by the Government in far less compelling circumstances.”
What she really is saying is that the same justices who have no problem allowing condemned prisoners to be killed before legitimate questions about their cases can be resolved have no compunction in rushing to prematurely protect the Trump administration, and the president’s personal interests, from legitimate legal processes. In other words, Sotomayor is calling her conservative colleagues hypocrites who are willing to bend precedent in the pursuit of ideological goals. (Brennan Center)

Ukraine emails

The latest batch of emails released by the Department of Defense in response to a FOIA suit reveals evidence that the administration withheld from Congress during the impeachment inquiry and trial. Senior members of the Trump administration, including Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, Defense Secretary Mark Esper, and then–National Security Adviser John Bolton had all advised President Trump to release the military aid to Ukraine, but the final decision was ultimately up to Trump.

The August 26, 2019, email from a senior career Pentagon official states that there was “no ongoing interagency review process with respect to USAI [Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative],” and states clearly: “Final decision rests with POTUS.”

“Critically, the email appears to contradict the White House budget office’s stated rationale for withholding the aid,” American Oversight states. Administration officials had been instructed to tell Congress that the freeze of aid to Ukraine was necessary to allow for an “interagency process to determine the best use of such funds.” The August 26 email clearly states that no such process was in action.

“Tonight’s document release is a reminder that before they lined up parrot the president’s line on Ukraine aid, senior members of the president’s national security team unanimously disagreed with his decision to withhold aid from Ukraine,” said Austin Evers, executive director of American Oversight.

An earlier email release revealed that Secretary of State Mike Pompeo fully coordinated with Rudy Giuliani on Trump’s pressure campaign on Ukraine and the ouster of U.S. Ambassador Marie Yovanovitch.
“We now know Mike Pompeo and his aides encouraged Rudy Giuliani to deliver his bogus 'dossier' smearing Ambassador Yovanovitch during a week in 2019 when Giuliani's henchmen were stalking the ambassador in Kyiv,” American Oversight executive director Austin Evers told Yahoo News.

The House continues Ukraine probe

The Foreign Affairs Committee is reportedly at odds with pro-Trump candidate Robert Hyde, who claimed to have former Ambassador Yovanovitch under surveillance. Chairman Eliot Engel, who is investigating the alleged surveillance and threats to the Ambassador, said in an email to Hyde last month that he was “dismayed to read yesterday that you have made statements to the media which greatly exaggerate the extent of your cooperation with this investigation."

"As you know, we have expressed repeated concern that the records you previously produced contain significant gaps," the House staffers wrote. They added that it was obvious Hyde hadn't turned everything over because his batch of materials was missing records that Congress already knows about because they were turned over by Parnas, who was on the other end of the texts.

Last week, six members of Congress led by Reps. Denny Heck (WA-10) and Jim Himes (CT-04) sent a letter to World Bank Group President David Malpass requesting information about his August meeting with Zelensky in Ukraine. The lawmakers voiced concerns that the meeting could be seen as a part of Trump’s pressure campaign that resulted in his impeachment.

The lawmakers asked Malpass to disclose when he decided to visit Kyiv, whether he coordinated his trip with non-World Bank officials, the “deliverables” of the meeting, the meeting’s impact on the World Bank’s plans in Ukraine and whether they discussed Hunter Biden, Burisma or Viktor Shokin, the former Ukrainian prosecutor general who was ousted under international pressure from leaders including former Vice President Biden. (The Hill)

Russia, Russia, Russia

Last week:

Trump accused House Intelligence Committee Adam Schiff of leaking information about Russia’s efforts to interfere in the 2020 election, dismissed the intelligence as “exaggerated,” and refused to acknowledge that Moscow was behind similar efforts in 2016. “Schiff leaked it, in my opinion — and he shouldn’t be leaking things like that,” Mr. Trump said without evidence.
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi informed the public that the Trump administration “failed to provide Congress with a report on the ongoing attacks on America’s elections from foreign governments, which was required by the bipartisan FY2020 National Defense Authorization Act.”
It was reported that Senate Intelligence Committee Richard Burr warned Senate Homeland Security Committee Chairman Ron Johnson and Senate Finance Committee Chairman Chuck Grassley that their probe targeting Biden could aid Russian efforts to sow chaos and distrust in the U.S. political system.
The Washington Post reported that “U.S. officials are sitting on test results that may show how the Putin regime twice tried to kill a peaceful opponent whose close ties to the United States, and columns for The Post, are reminiscent of Jamal Khashoggi, the murdered Saudi journalist.”
A Russian court ordered former United States Marine Trevor Reed be detained for another six months on accusations he assaulted police officers in Moscow last year, a charge that his defense team has called “fraudulent.” Meanwhile, former Marine Paul Whelan has been in a Russian jail since 2018 on espionage accusations. Their treatment is a stark contrast from that received by celebrity rapper A$AP Rocky - when detained in Sweden, Trump dispatched his hostage envoy (and current National Security Adviser) to oversee the matter and secure Rocky’s release. No such effort has been made for the two former service members in Moscow.
Hopping the pond to look at Russia’s interference in the U.K.: The wife of former Russian Finance Minister and Putin-ally Vladimir Chernukhin made a £90,000 donation for a game of tennis with Prime Minister Boris Johnson. “The donation comes as Johnson continues to delay publication of a parliamentary report detailing extensive links between his party and donors with links to Russia.”

Alleged Saudi and UAE funding for Trump

Lebanese-American businessman Ahmad "Andy" Khawaja told Spectator Magazine that officials from Abu Dhabi and Saudi Arabia illegally funneled millions of dollars into Trump’s 2016 campaign. As the CEO of an online payment processing company, Khawaja claims that George Nader obtained his assistance to disguise the money using stolen identities and gift cards as under-$200 campaign contributions that are not required to be reported to the Federal Election Commission.

He remembers Nader explaining why they wanted to fund the Trump campaign. According to Khawaja, Nader said: ‘I’ve been meeting with the Trump campaign people…we have a deal with Trump: my boss, His Highness, made a deal that if we help Trump get elected, he’s going to be harsh on Iran, he’s going to take out the nuclear deal that the Obama administration made. That will cripple the Iranian economy and will sanction Iran from selling oil again. It will make it very difficult for them to compete in the oil market. That’s worth a hundred billion dollars to us. That’s the reason we cannot allow Hillary to win at any cost. She must lose.’
Khawaja says he asked: ‘But you really think he’s going to win? I mean, this is crazy.’ And he says that Nader replied: ‘His Highness is not stupid, he will never bet on a losing horse.’ The money would come from the Saudis. The Emiratis would run the operation, using data bought from the Chinese. Khawaja says that Nader told him: ‘We have all the data already, we have 10 million US consumers’ data. And we have endless money.’ The Russians were ‘on board’ too: ‘He said, “Yes, I have met with Putin already and we have a green light from him. Because Putin is on the same page with us. He wants Hillary to lose.”’

Khawaja and Nader were charged with making false statements, obstruction, and allegedly making illegal contributions to Clinton’s campaign on behalf of an unidentified foreign official. While Nader is currently in jail, Khawaja is a fugitive in the Middle East.

Cuccinelli appointment illegal

A D.C.-based federal judge ruled Sunday that President Donald Trump's appointment of Ken Cuccinelli as acting U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services director violated the Federal Vacancies Reform Act, a decision that suspends two policies Cuccinelli implemented while leading the agency. (Politico)
Three weeks after assuming his new role, Cuccinelli issued a memorandum announcing a revised policy for scheduling credible-fear interviews, the first step in the asylum process, according to the court ruling. Under the revised policy, the agency reduced the time allotted for asylum seekers to consult with others prior to their interviews.
Under Cuccinelli, USCIS also prohibited granting asylum seekers extensions of time to prepare for their credible-fear interviews, "except in the most extraordinary of circumstances." The asylum directives must be set aside, Moss ruled. (CNN)

Eric Trump’s taxpayer-funded business trip

Eric Trump visited a Trump property in development in Uruguay from January 8 to 9, 2019, a two-day business trip that cost taxpayers at least $80,786. CREW obtained records through the Freedom of Information Act today that add to the massive bill of Secret Service protection related to the Trump family’s management of the president’s business empire. The 2019 trip brings Eric Trump’s total up to at least $178,616 in taxpayer funds to work on development of the Trump Organization’s Punta Del Este property alone.

Scottish leader calls for Trump investigation

Parliamentarian Patrick Harvie, a co-leader of the Scottish Greens party, implored the government to pursue a legal order forcing Trump and the Trump Organization to reveal the funding of its multi-million dollar Scottish land acquisitions, saying there were “reasonable grounds” to suspect the U.S. president has been involved in illegal activity.

Mr Harvie said that the House of Representatives had heard testimony which stated: "We saw patterns of buying and selling that we thought were suggestive of money laundering" - with particular concern expressed about Mr Trump's golf courses in Scotland and Ireland.
He added: "Trump's known sources of income don't explain where the money came from for these huge cash transactions. There are reasonable grounds for suspecting that his lawfully obtained income was insufficient.”

"Scottish ministers can apply via the Court of Session for an unexplained wealth order, a tool designed for precisely these kinds of situations." The orders can be issued by the courts to compel their target to reveal the source of funding, and are often used to tackle suspected international money laundering.

Roger Stone

District Court Judge Amy Berman Jackson denied Stone’s request that she disqualify herself from his case for supposed “bias,” issuing a sharply-worded rebuke of the defense’s allegations: "At bottom, given the absence of any factual or legal support for the motion for disqualification, the pleading appears to be nothing more than an attempt to use the Court’s docket to disseminate a statement for public consumption that has the words 'judge' and 'biased' in it," Jackson wrote. “Judges cannot be ‘biased’ and need not be disqualified if the views they express are based on what they learned while doing the job they were appointed to do.”
Footage of Roger Stone’s interviews with prosecutors last month has been released… and the only word that can sum it up is “wow.” The entire archive can be found here, but if you are short on time Politico’s Andrew Kimmel made a supercut of the must-see moments that illustrate Stone’s true character: a narcissist who can barely control his anger at being questioned.

Stefanik broke fundraising rules

A constituent of Republican Rep. Elise Stefanik (NY-21) filed an official complaint against her with the Office of Congressional Ethics for using footage of House floor activities to raise funds for her campaign - an express violation of House rules. Stefanik has used clips of her questioning during the impeachment inquiry in fundraising emails, including one with the subject line, that read, “WATCH: I EXPOSED ADAM SCHIFF.”

In a letter sent on June 7, 2018, the House Ethics Committee reminded legislators that “rules specifically prohibit the use of footage of House Floor activities and committee proceedings for any partisan political purpose.”
“I think Rep. Stefanik’s use of video of the House hearing to solicit political contributions is a serious violation of that rule,” says Larry Noble, the former general counsel of the Federal Election Commission. “The rule is clear, and so is the guidance given by the House Ethics Committee.”
Donald K. Sherman, general counsel of the ethics watchdog Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington — a group that routinely opposes the Trump administration — agrees with that assessment. “House Ethics Committee guidance clearly prohibits Members from using video of committee proceedings for campaign purposes,” said Sherman, who was previously a high-ranking Senate attorney, “which Rep. Stefanik appears to have done nine times in the last six months.

Nunes’ lawsuits

Campaign Legal Center, a nonprofit government accountability watchdog, filed a complaint with the Office of Congressional Ethics asking for an investigation into how Rep. Devin Nunes is paying for his six separate lawsuits against media companies and critics.

The complaint says Nunes appears to be in “blatant violation of House rules,” because he would have trouble paying for all these lawsuits solely from his congressional salary of $174,000 per year. The group argues he’d only be able to pay if he received legal services for free, at a discounted rate, or based on a contingency fee, meaning the lawyer would get compensated from Nunes’ winnings if he prevails in his lawsuits.
In all of those cases, the complaint says, Nunes must disclose the legal help he is receiving by filing a legal expense fund, otherwise it would represent an illegal gift given to Nunes under congressional ethics rules. Nunes has not filed a legal expense fund with the Office of Congressional Ethics.

Immigration news

Washington Post: A federal appeals court in California halted the Trump administration’s “Remain in Mexico” asylum policy on Friday, removing one of the key tools the president has used to curb mass migration across the southern U.S. border. The ruling was in effect for only a few hours, however, as the judges later granted a Trump administration request for an emergency stay “pending further order of this court.” Justice Department lawyers said in court filings that 25,000 migrants have been waiting in Mexico and argued that they feared the ruling would lead to an influx on the southern border.
New York Times: The Justice Department said Wednesday that it had created an official section in its immigration office to strip citizenship rights from naturalized immigrants, a move that gives more heft to the Trump administration’s broad efforts to remove from the country immigrants who have committed crimes… Some Justice Department immigration lawyers have expressed worries that denaturalizations could be broadly used to strip citizenship.
- The Coalition for Humane Immigrant Rights: "We reject any denaturalization task force that destroys citizenship as we know it and keeps every naturalized immigrant living in fear. Trump is weaponizing the DOJ to make naturalized immigrants look like second-class citizens."
Jurist: The US Supreme Court issued a 5-4 decision in Hernandez v. Mesa on Tuesday, holding that the parents of a Mexican child who was shot and killed by a border official have no right to seek a remedy in American civil court. The child, Jesus Hernandez, had been playing with friends in a dry culvert that straddles the US-Mexico border between El Paso, Texas and Ciudad Juarez. Border Patrol agent Jesus Mesa fired at Hernandez from the US side of the culvert, and the bullet struck the boy on the Mexican side, where he died.
CNN: Secretary of Defense Mark Esper faced a bipartisan grilling from lawmakers Wednesday on Capitol Hill for his decision to divert military funding to pay for the US border wall as he testifies before the House Armed Services Committee… The top Republican on the committee, Rep. Mac Thornberry, also slammed the move saying it is "substituting the judgment of the administration for the judgment of Congress," adding "I am deeply concerned about where we're headed with the constitutional issue."
ACLU: The American Civil Liberties Union today filed a new lawsuit challenging the Trump administration’s transfer of an additional $3.8 billion in military funds for border wall construction. Congress did not authorize the funds. “The president is doubling down on his unlawful scheme to raid taxpayer funds for a xenophobic campaign promise that is destroying national treasures, harming the environment, and desecrating tribal lands.”
Associated Press: President Donald Trump may not divert $89 million intended for a military construction project in Washington state to build his border wall… “Congress repeatedly and deliberately declined to appropriate the full funds the President requested for a border wall along the southern border of the United States,” [Judge] Rothstein wrote.
Today, Monday March 2, the Supreme Court will hear arguments in a case involving the Trump administration’s “expedited removal” of asylum seekers without allowing them a chance to take their application before a federal judge. For a detailed discussion of the case, see the ACLU and Lawfare.
Mother Jones: Melania Trump Got an “Einstein Visa.” Why Was It So Hard for This Nobel Prize Winner? Immigration attorneys say the Trump administration is rejecting highly qualified applicants for “genius” green cards.

It's from 2018, but still an interesting read, although Brexit is absent. Or perhaps because? At least, one can say that Switzerland (Basel newspaper) isn't too interested in the UK compared to the EU.
"We may have to take this thing to the wall."
Former Czech Foreign Minister Karl Schwarzenberg on Europe, its politicians, the "barbaric" 20th century and why rules are more important than values.
Dominik Feusi, Prague, 19.07.2018
BaZ: Mr Schwarzenberg, the Czech Republic has experienced terrible ruptures again and again in the last century, we can hardly imagine that in Switzerland ...
Karl Schwarzenberg: My brother, who became a real Swiss as a banker in Zurich, was once invited to a well-known patrician family in Basel. Suddenly he discovered - hidden in a corner - a Holbein on the wall. He wondered about it and asked the lady of the house why the picture was hanging so hidden in the corner. She said, "When my ancestor had his portrait painted, he put it there." Here in Prague the painting would have been looted, stolen and confiscated three times. This is - in short - the difference between Switzerland and the Czech Republic.
B:The Czech Republic was part of the imperial and royal monarchy, and after the First World War it was the only democracy that did not drift away in an authoritarian manner. It was betrayed by England and France in 1938, then taken by the Germans, taken by surprise by the Communists in 1948, overrun by the Soviets in 1968 and only liberated in 1989. You have experienced many of these ruptures.
S: Not all of them, but from February 1948 I can remember everything.
B: What was the most significant break of this century for your country?
S: It was the Munich Agreement of 1938 and the lack of reaction to it. It was a catastrophe that broke the country's moral backbone. A spiritual surrender.
B: Why a surrender?
S: Everybody - from the simple street worker to my father - wanted to fight. But the president surrendered. It was similar in 1948 and again in 1968.
B:You once said that you had a complex of these "defeats without a fight".
S: Yes. And I can't get rid of it, and neither can many Czechs.
B: One should have fought, you think?
S: Always! Look at Poland: Warsaw may have been destroyed by the Germans, but the Poles are a proud nation. Prague is full of beautiful monuments, but the psychological damage of being spared is catastrophic.
B: Still today?
S: But in any case. There is no morality in Czech politics.
B:Switzerland was spared too. Has it also suffered damage?
S: I can't judge that. But I suspect they would have fought.
B: Your father advised you to learn from history. When you look back, what is there for us to learn?
S: Fortitude. One must fight evil. One must not surrender. One must not be satisfied with the famous "lesser evil". What happened to the people who conformed to Hitler or the Communists and joined the government? They became part of the evil. One must fight.
B: How do you find out what is the evil you have to fight?
S: By watching closely and listening carefully, then you can find out very quickly. The simplest rule is, whoever is preaching hatred, you have to stand up to them. It doesn't matter against whom one preaches hatred. Today they usually start by saying that they are not anti-Semites, then they spread hatred against the Arabs, who are just as Semitic as the Jews.
B: In these ruptures, especially in 1938, Germany usually played an important role. In 1995, Czech President Václav Havel said in a speech that the relationship with Germany was more than just one of many issues in the Czech Republic, "it is part of our destiny, part of our identity". He was harshly criticized for this.
S: What he said is right. He was always criticised - because he usually told the truth. Being criticized is part of the truth.
B: But to let identity emerge from the demarcation from something else is quite...
S: That is every identity! From the demarcation from others, every child learns what it is itself. Always. This also applies to nations. Identity can only be achieved through demarcation.
B: But to argue like this is politically completely incorrect today. One pretends that national identity is no longer necessary.
S: I'm interested in a "blueprint" of what is politically correct. We have to face the fact that it is. It needs identity, and that this has something to do with the nation is completely natural.
B: In Central Europe, politicians who play with national identity are gaining strength.
S: We have horrible politicians today. You see, in Vaclav Havel we had a president who was welcome everywhere. The Czech Republic was loved and gained importance beyond its actual size. First of all, it is strange that completely different people are winning elections today. But if you take a closer look, there is a logic to it.
B: Which one?
S: Take Milos Zeman, our current president. He is something like the Czech equivalent of Berlusconi in Italy. He's been accused of many things. But the Italians love him because he embodies how they want to live, surrounded by pretty girls, fast cars and a villa. Every Italian would like that. Berlusconi's weaknesses are those that every Italian also has, only the normal Italian doesn't have the opportunity to live them as he does. It's the same with Zeman.
B: In what way?
S: He's a chain smoker, he drinks a lot and has a vulgar language. He lives the way a normal Czech likes to live. You can identify with him, especially in the countryside or in industrial centres where structural change has caused unemployment. There there is a nostalgia for the past, there you do not identify with what should be, but with what is close to you. That doesn't change the fact that his policy is dangerous, because that is no longer the point. It seems to me that elections today are no longer about what someone wants and whether that is right or wrong, but about the dreams and desires of voters.
B: You once said that politics is a bad profession.
S: Did I? I don't think so. But there is only one profession that can be compared to politics.
B: Which profession do you mean?
S: It is one in which you also stay in nice hotels, where you have to be available in the evenings and on weekends, as if you were a politician, where you have to take the position that is required of you at all times, and where you cannot choose your partners.
B: I still do not understand what profession you mean.
S: The prostitute. That profession has a great deal to do with politics, believe me. But there are those who consider both occupations worthy...
B: Let us talk about Europe. You are considered a convinced European.
S: What do you mean "convinced"? I'm not Asian, I'm not American, I'm just European.
B: Seven years ago, you said that in Europe all will has been lost, that it was unclear what people in Europe wanted and what we were there for.
S: I could say the same thing today. It has only got worse. If you look around Brussels, you will find nothing of a vision. Emmanuel Macron may have a vision, but his own country is also the closest thing to him. And the rest? I don't see an idea there, let alone the will and energy to carry it through.
B: You also said then that there are many politicians, but no statesmen.
S: Sure. In the past, there were always several rulers in Europe who knew where they wanted to go, be it a Mitterrand, a Kohl or even a Margaret Thatcher. Today politicians are only better or worse administrators of their countries.
B: What strikes me as a Swiss person is that these visions in the EU always amount to even more centralism and even more competences for Brussels.
S: So I would ask you to think coolly. Surely Europe is not about more or less centralism, but about the EU taking care of the essential things and giving back to the Member States the many insignificant things it has acquired over the last sixty years. I do not see why the question of what name a cheese is sold under on the internal market should be decided in Brussels. I do not see why the EU does not leave nature conservation to the Member States.
B: What would be essential?
S: In a world where China, Russia and India are rearming, where migration flows are on an unprecedented scale, we have no European security policy and no European foreign policy. That is a mistake. Energy policy is also strategically crucial. I am no friend of central government, but the things that have been crucial for a thousand years should be coordinated in the EU. Everything else, different currencies, different tax systems, all the rest you can confidently leave to diversity in Europe. That has never hurt us. Europe does not need to become more centralised, but more essential. Then Brussels will be stripped of innumerable competences that annoy us all and which can just as easily be taken over by the regions.
B: As Foreign Minister, you have experienced the EU at first hand. How has it come to this?
S: First of all, the EU has acquired every competence that anyone has offered it. This is not surprising. Every institution wants power, as much as possible. But then there were also things that the states were happy to delegate to Brussels and then to make Brussels responsible for regulation at home, for example in nature conservation. No government wants to scare away its voters in the countryside who are critical of this. There are a lot of such things. In my opinion, they should be taken over by the Member States again, so that they then have to answer to the electorate.
B: What would a common EU defence and foreign policy mean?
S: Every country must do its security policy homework. But people are beginning to realise that something has to be done, independently of NATO. Of course NATO is important, but we must also be able to do something independently.
B: How should Europe deal with Russia?
S: Carefully. Of course we must not let the thread of the conversation be torn off, I am one hundred per cent in favour of that. But we must also be aware that the Putin generation is driven by revisionist ideas. I can understand that. Thirty years ago Putin was an agent in the secret service of a superpower. The Soviet tanks were located in East Germany or here in Eger, just outside Bayreuth. The Soviet Union was one of the two powers that shared the world. Today the Russian tanks are stationed far behind the Ukraine, all of Central Asia was lost. It is not incomprehensible that there are people who openly or unconsciously mourn the former greatness.
B: Is this a wound to the Russian soul?
S: Please, when you lose so much, it is only understandable. Look at how the Germans, the English or the French had to bite at the loss of their colonies. It's no different with Russia. We here in the Czech Republic were a colony of the Soviets! I understand the Russian feeling, but it is not right. The former colonies are free and want to remain so.
B: China is becoming more and more important geopolitically.
S: The Chinese are very determined. We must therefore deal with China with self-confidence. I do not like to see European politicians going on pilgrimage to China and submissively passing the Chinese court with admiration. Do not misunderstand me: China has a great and ancient culture and is a great country, but it is nevertheless going through an aggressive phase at the moment and we should face this with self-confidence.
B: There seems to be a new kind of protectionism coming from the US. There is a threat of a trade war.
S: Oh, you know, the pendulum is swinging back after unbridled globalisation. At the same time, it must be recognised that the United States is not entirely wrong. The EU's customs duty, for example on cars, is four times as high as the American one. It would be good if the Europeans were to recognise this.
B: And what do you think of the US accusation that the Europeans are not investing enough in their defence?
S: It is true that since the Second World War Europe has relied entirely on the Americans. Since 1990, with the exception of the UK, France, Poland and the Balkans, they have gradually reduced their own defence spending, so that today their armies can no longer be taken seriously. As I mentioned, everyone has to do their homework. We need to put that right as quickly as possible. Even if someone else becomes President of the United States at some point, this issue will remain on the table.
B: What role do small states like the Czech Republic play in the EU? You yourself once spoke of "hegemonic tendencies" that exist in the EU.
S: Of course the big states play an important role. That is human nature. In every village the big farmer is more important than the small farmer. But that doesn't mean that small states cannot assert themselves remarkably strongly. A typical example is Luxembourg. You can also play an important role as a small state.
B: What role should Switzerland play in Europe as a non-EU member?
S: You can be a great role model, especially when it comes to the rule of law. But you would have to make this even better known. That wouldn't hurt. I experienced this first-hand when we lived in Austria after leaving Czechoslovakia in 1948 and applied for Swiss passports at the consulate in Vienna without any current documents. Six weeks later, the news came: "We have examined your application and have indeed established that you have been a citizen of Zurich since the 17th century." It's a constitutional state.
B: We are often seen in the EU not as a model, but negatively as a thorn in the flesh.
S: So this sting doesn't go very deep. Don't get too cocky about it.
B: You once said that the crisis in Europe was caused by the irresponsibility of politicians.
S: Yes. The financial and debt crisis - which has not yet been overcome - has exactly that to do with it. Politicians did not make their policies with the money that was available, but spent much more. Many governments have lived far beyond their means. And now that the economy is slowly picking up, they are tending to become irresponsible again. Because they have more money, they are spending more. But Lord Keynes, who is invoked by all those who think government spending and debt are good, said that when the economy is good, you have to save again. But nobody talks about that.
B: That's because politicians don't win elections by saving, but by spending.
S: That certainly helps them. But you see, politicians who only look at the next elections are not good politicians. And certainly not statesmen. Do you know what French President Charles de Gaulle said when he was asked what he enjoyed most about governing?
B: No.
S: Just that, "Dire non", say no. That was a statesman. Saying no is important in politics. Oh, yes, one has to say no more often than yes.
B: What if you lose an election over it?
S: Who cares! It happened to me. A politician must endure election results - otherwise he should do something else.
B: In 2011 you saw a "European revolution" coming. Where has it gone?
S: Unfortunately, it hasn't arrived yet, although it would be time again after 1948, 1968 and 1989. But no, those who are not satisfied today are simply going away, off to the West. That is the tragedy.
B: The Bulgarian intellectual Ivan Krastev believes that populism is growing because of the emigration of the elites.
S: I don't completely agree with him. The elite, they come to terms with the new rulers because they hope for something. It's always been that way. When Germany was brought into line in the 1930s, everyone, with a few exceptions, took part. Or here in the Czech Republic, when the Communists came to power, even professors and artists who were exploiting the country took part. You know, the intellectuals always take part, but they give a better reason.
B: In 1989 we thought democracy had finally triumphed. Now we have something like a crisis of democracy.
S: You know, for thirty years we've been doing well. It seems that everything has to change now.
B: What has to change?
S: What we have is obviously boring us. Ordinary politicians are boring, populists and extremists entertain us for that. They just give the better performance. Politics is show business, and the traditional politicians have actually become a bit bland. I have the impression that we have to drive this thing to the wall to wake up. But as long as everyone is swimming in fat...
B: You have experienced several times what "driving into a wall" means...
S: You bet! The only thing that remains over all the years and all the disasters is prejudice. They are passed on from generation to generation.
B: That's simply human.
S: I'm afraid so.
B: We live in interesting times.
S:Watch out! "You shall live in interesting times" is an ancient Chinese curse. If someone wants you bad, he wishes you interesting times. My mother truly lived through the 20th century. At the age of nine she was introduced to Emperor Franz Joseph, she knew most of the politicians of the interwar period, was interrogated by both the Nazi Gestapo and the Communist State Police. She has truly had an interesting life. She once told me: "If you knew what I would have given, if it had been a little less interesting."
B: The 20th century was a particularly violent century.
S: Sure. Barbarization was particularly bad in the first half. To that I recall the story of Captain Baron Brandt. He had a small estate near Kirchdorf in Upper Austria - a better farm. In the First World War he was then with the Wels Dragoons. He took part in the last great cavalry battle in world history - in 1915, near Jaroslavice in Galicia against the Russians. After the battle he woke up in Russian captivity and had a shoulder pierced by a Cossack lance!
B: Did he survive?
S: He was young and recovered quickly. After a week he was halfway together. Then he was invited to the Russian officers' mess. where, according to Russian custom, one always drank to someone. The first toast went, of course, to His Majesty the Tsar, the second, imagine that, went to the oldest monarch in Europe, to Emperor Franz Joseph, the enemy of war. At the third, the Russian commander greeted the captured cavalry captain, paid tribute to his performance on the battlefield and emphasized how superbly he had led his squadron. He concluded: "We are very happy that he has recovered so quickly." That was the custom in 1915.
B: And later?
S: In 1940, everything changed. Captain Brandt was no longer drafted because of his shoulder. He continued to work on his farm. And instead of the servants, who were all in the army, he got French prisoners of war as laborers. For the harvest in late summer 1940, he worked with them in the fields as usual. At noon the housewife brought a pot of proper soup to the field and they sat down together. Shortly afterwards Brandt received a letter from the Gestapo in Kirchdorf saying he had been observed working and eating with the prisoners of war. This violated the "fraternization ban". He answered friendly that he was doing it the way he had always done it with his servants. A week later he was in the concentration camp Mauthausen.
B: No!
S: Yes! He told me so himself. He survived the camp, thank God. It's just a little story, but it shows how Europe has been barbarized in 25 years.
B: Have we overcome this barbarization since then?
S: No. Today we bomb a country, I am thinking of Syria, without declaring war. We send armies across borders somewhere to do something. And everyone talks about "values" that they claim to defend there. But this is exactly what destroys the set of rules that was built up after the Second World War for peace and against this barbarization. We pretend to do something for values and betray them. That is why I can no longer hear the word "values". I would ask everyone to respect the general rules. Because that is enough - and kiss my ass with values!
B: Why are rules better than values?
S: You can always discuss, bend, break values. Rules are rules. Every person grows up with values, but politics has to be about rules and not about values. If values come at the expense of rules, then tragedy is there.
B: Sometimes it seems to me that small states make small mistakes, and only big states make big mistakes.
S: That is where you are mistaken. Remember Czechoslovakia in 1945 and 1946.
B: You mean the expulsion of the Germans after the war?
S: Yes. That was not right.
B: When you wanted to be president in 2013, you pointed out exactly that. They say it cost you the election.
S: I don't care. You have to say what you think is right and what you think is wrong, regardless of elections.
B: There it is again, your fight. At Schloss Scheinfeld in Franconia in the eighties, you gave decisive support to the resistance in Czechoslovakia with a documentation centre.
S: Please, the castle is called Schwarzenberg. The little town below is called Scheinfeld.
B: Excuse me! When did you realize that the "velvet revolution" in the Czech Republic of 1989 was possible?
S: Like most state chancelleries, I was wrong. Of course the regime in Prague was rotten, but regimes can often hold on to power for a long time. Then things suddenly happened faster than feared.
B: What does that mean for today?
S: It may all turn out differently than we thought. Maybe a lot worse, maybe a lot better. What remains is each person's responsibility for what they do and for what they don't do. That sounds banal, but it isn't.
Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version)
https://www.bazonline.ch/ausland/europa/vielleicht-muessen-wir-die-sache-an-die-wand-fahren/story/18160854

Disclaimer: All the accused are innocent until proven guilty by the court of law, even if they may sound as being guilty. Currency in Armenian Drams unless specified otherwise.
Yesterday, Cassations court took the Kocharyan case paperwork back so it could make a copy. Today, a new Cassations judge has been appointed to hear the case in which the prosecutors are challenging the earlier verdict.
https://www.armtimes.com/hy/article/162725
Artsakh war commando and politician Samvel Babayan claims that his political opponent (and Artsakh president candidate) Araik Harutyunyan's gangs opened fire towards his car near the Sevan-Martuni freeway. Babayan gave specific names and said the gangs are directly under the protection of Harutyunyan. Babayan has asked NSS to investigate. Babayan said these armed gangs are also active in Artsakh and spread terror among the population. Babayan threatened to act himself if nothing is done to stop them.
https://armtimes.com/hy/article/162653
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The accused Araik Harutyunyan has denied the accusations. Called it a misinformation. Urged Babayan not to "blackmail" them. He said if there is a personal conflict between Babayan and other participants, the police should investigate to find out what happened.
https://armtimes.com/hy/article/162679
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NSS chief Vanetsyan says the participants are known, and it's clear what happened. Says the incident did happen and it was a result of financial disputes between two groups of people.
https://armenpress.am/arm/news/976663.html
The government held a session today.
They approved an amendment to the bankruptcy declaration laws. Justice Minister Zeynalyan says the change will also help to improve Armenia's rating in "Doing Business" index. Numerous transparency, efficiency and rights protections reforms are proposed. (still needs a Parliamentary approval)
https://armenpress.am/arm/news/976672.html
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Another reform was approved regarding Cadastre committee (property registrations).
Physically stamping the documents will no longer be necessary. This will improve electronic and paperless processing, and better integrate with other agencies' work. The property ownership certificates will change. (needs Parliamentary approval)
https://armenpress.am/arm/news/976693.html
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Pashinyan noted that this is the last time that 17 ministries are participating in a government session. Soon it will be cut due to the recently adopted law. 27 deputy Ministers and aides were laid off today. Some ministries will merge soon.
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Pashinyan noted that the industry and the economy as a whole are growing at a fast rate, but he was worried about the recent drop in exports in the first 3 months of 2019.
The latest numbers for April show the exports are up again, by 9.9%. The exports are up 14.7% compared to the same period of 2018. Aluminum giant Armenal exports rose 44%. Cigarette exports up 60%. Jewelery exports up 68%. Chocolate up 34%.
https://armtimes.com/hy/article/162668 --- https://www.armtimes.com/hy/article/162746
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The government approved a plan to give 200,000 low income citizens free medications as part of a 1.1bln program. Two new health conditions were added to the list of treatments that are free. An earlier proposal gave these low income residents free healthcare. The new proposal ads free medications on top of the free healthcare.
610 additional ambulance workers will receive free healthcare. Thousands of medical field workers received one earlier, but these 610 were "left out".
Pashinyan asked the cabinet members to take steps to inform the citizens about these chages, about what medications they can get, what papers they need, because many times people aren't aware that they qualify for aid.
https://armenpress.am/arm/news/976705.html - - https://armtimes.com/hy/article/162677 - - - https://armtimes.com/hy/article/162706 - - https://factor.am/155541.html
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A law was earlier approved to raise soldier salaries by as much as 20%. It goes into effect in 2 days, beginning June. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aqaA-uCtUFM
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The government temporarily canceled taxes for GRANT company that produces high pressure canisters. 26.7bln ($55 million) in investments. 190 jobs with 250k avg salary.
Moeiff company also received the tax free status to invest 14.7bln ($30 million) in production of house appliances with non-corrosive metals. 100 new jobs with 130k salary.
https://armenpress.am/arm/news/976703.html
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They temporarily canceled taxes for Avalanj company so it can import 1.8bln in tech to build greenhouses in Aragatsotn province. 60 additional jobs with 120k avg salary. https://armtimes.com/hy/article/162688
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The government issued a 8mln aid to the National Song and Dance Academy. It's tasked with researching and teaching traditional Armenian dances.
18mln was issued to the Union of Artists of Armenia. State Forest Monitoring Center received 21mln aid to pay its bills. 360mln for Penitentiary Medicine Center to provide Healthcare for inmates. 463mln to obtain vaccination materials for children and military-age young men. 6.5mln to subsidize the construction of water system is Sari Gyugh.
https://hetq.am/hy/article/104147 https://hetq.am/hy/article/104153 - - https://hetq.am/hy/article/104151 - - https://hetq.am/hy/article/104149 - - https://hetq.am/hy/article/104148 - - https://hetq.am/hy/article/104147 - - https://hetq.am/hy/article/104146
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They decided to issue funds to - within a month - repair the road that leads to the Sevan peninsula. It's a tourism spot and the season will begin soon. https://armenpress.am/arm/news/976690.html
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The government gave a 100mln worth land somewhere near Tsitsernakaberd to a company so it can build a large tech center. Upon completion, the company will donate one facility to the city.
400 jobs will be created during the 4 year construction, 300 of them permanent. 2,500 people can be hired later once the building is used for its purpose.
https://armenpress.am/arm/news/976679.html
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Instead of the regular 2-year military service, soldiers can currently choose to enroll in various military programs. They can choose a 3-year program called Pativ Unem, which ties their service to education, and gives a list of benefits such a free Master degree education and more vacations. The government has proposed lowering this program's "minimal duration" to 2 years to make it more appealing.
http://panarmenian.net/m/arm/news/269367 -- https://razm.info/135922
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In another proposal, the maximum age limit for hired soldiers will be raised from 35 to 40 years old. If the contractor has skills that the army has a shortage of, the age limit will be 45. (all these are yet to be officially approved to become law)
If two brothers are recruited simultaneously and they want to serve in the same place, only one will participate in the lottery system that picks their location.
High ranking officers will also qualify to receive mortgage loan aid that is currently provided to regulars.
http://panarmenian.net/m/arm/news/269361
Parliament speaker QP Mirzoyan says the fact that 4 Constitutional Court judge nominees have been rejected by the Parliament so far, doesn't mean a disrespect towards the president, who appoints the candidacies. The process will continue until both institutions find a common ground.
Mirzoyan was asked to comment about some paintings in the Parliament hall that raised money spending questions. Says he didn't buy them, the Parliament has funds for it and it bought it. They bought it for a 75% discount directly from the painter.
https://www.armtimes.com/hy/article/162715 --- https://www.armtimes.com/hy/article/162717
European Council sent its rule of law and human rights top delegation to Armenia. They met Justice minister Zeynalyan, offered to help Armenia with the judicial reforms. Delegation also included officials from Venice Commission and GRECO (anti-corruption institute).
https://armenpress.am/arm/news/976707.html
QP is currently trying to pass a law to limit the physical gambling locations (read yesterday edition). Here are some stats on how much the big gambling firms earned from the clients' betting losses in 2018: Toto Gaming 6.5bln, Vivaro 5.9bln, Goodwin 2.4bln, Adjarabet 0.02bln.
Combined, these bookmakers made 14.8bln after receiving 145bln in bets. Net profit of these firms was 6.6bln.
http://panarmenian.net/m/arm/news/269382
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Someone decided to troll the Parliament today. Someone in the chamber turned on a gambling ad during a session. Anti-gambling bill author Alen Simonyan asked them to knock it off.
https://youtu.be/r4g1kEcuMmc?t=6
Various unions of journalists released a joint statement condemning "threats and other pressures on journalists". They aren't happy that BHK chief Gagik Tsarukyan recently (allegedly) told a journalist that she is paid to negatively target him, and that the journalist will "pay for her actions".
Other listed examples were something that Roboserj 5Th Channel boss told CivilNet, a former MP told something to popular TV host Petros Ghazaryan, something that Supreme Court Council chairman told Azatutyun media.
They also urged their fellow journalists to be professional, have a sense of delicacy, follow journalistic ethics.
https://factor.am/155664.html
On June 1st, the children's protection day, people are planning to organize a march titled "Don't park on the sidewalk". They'll spread fliers and inform the drivers that parking their car on the sidewalk hinders a pedestrian's ability to push a stroller or a wheelchair, and they are forced to get on the dangerous road to bypass it.
http://panarmenian.net/m/arm/news/269380
Chessist Gabriel Sargsyan has won the Al-Batayih blitz competition held in UAE.
https://armenpress.am/arm/news/976656.html
Artsakh army denies the Azeri report that Armenian snipers killed an Azeri soldier near Akna region.
It isn't uncommon for the Azerbaijan army to cover-up internal problems that led to a murder, by blaming the death on Armenians.
https://www.aysor.am/am/news/2019/05/30/%D5%BA%D5%A2/1569487
Europa League final game is over, but the drama surrounding Azerbaijan's policy and Mkhitaryan isn't.
On the match day, Baku residents got into a fight with Arsenal fans who were singing pro-Mkhitaryan songs.
A Russian sports journalist tried to "smuggle" Mkhitaryan jersey into the stadium, but was denied.
The stadiums weren't full because of ticket issues caused by Baku's remote location from Europe, inability to host many people simultaneously, not providing enough access to disabled people, expensive hotels and air fares. Thousands of seats were vacant. Both teams returned half of their tickets, which Baku then had to sell to the locals.
Some fans were complaining that the distance between the pitch and tribunes was too big.
Other complaints were about the main camera recording from a too far distance, lack of excitement in the tribunes due to many Arsenal fans not appearing for the game.
Chelsea 4:1 Arsenal. Mkhitaryan scored the only goal for Arsenal except he didn't.
https://rusarminfo.ru/2019/05/30/armyanskie-skandaly-draki-pustoj-stadion-chem-zavershilsya-final-v-baku/ - - - -
Pictures http://www.sportbible.com/football/news-thousands-of-empty-seats-in-baku-for-all-english-europa-league-final-20190529 - - - - - https://www.foxsports.com.au/football/thousands-of-empty-seats-in-arsenal-and-chelsea-ends-as-fans-struggle-to-get-to-baku-for-europa-league-final/news-story/68d267536fa0790533d32e690a798202 - - - - http://www.businessinsider.com/europa-league-final-empty-stadium-venue-2019-5 - - - https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/football/article-7084239/Cesc-Fabregas-criticises-decision-hold-Europa-League-final-Baku-thousands-seats.html
The Beatles' "Yesterday" has been picked by 24/7 Wall Street as the best song of all times.
Enjoy https://youtu.be/jzT2icR7WKk
Area near Hrazdan stadium and former president LTP was on fire today https://youtu.be/bRjw8aWBpi8?t=10

Do I Pay Tax on Forex Trading in the UK?

Lost in the Sauce: DHS hides intelligence that reveals Trump using Russia's playbook, again