Yeah, that's a forced name. This is a simple look into which teams are harmed the most by having to play to empty stadiums.
Why? We all know the NFL is playing to empty and limited crowds. We also know that home-field advantage is an actual thing. Professional odds-makers use various methods to determine the home-field advantage of each individual team. I, however, am a simple man. Three points. A field goal. That's what I'm saying home teams are missing out on by not having full stadiums this year. Another reason for me doing this is because I wanted to find the most tedious way to spend a few hours, and adjusting scores and learning Reddit table formatting fit the bill.
How? What I did was pretty straightforward. I went through the weekly scoreboards and adjusted home losses by 3 points. Any games changed are reflected in the team's record. I didn't adjust for which teams have limited or no fans. Nor did I adjust for certain teams known for a bigger home field advantage. This three point decision wasn't an arbitrary number either. While trying to decide how detailed I was going to get with this, I read over and over how casual betting discussions say 3 is the advantage. So consider this a casual study.
If for some reason anyone wants to make more precise adjustments using data from people more qualified than I, you might want to use the 2019 lines. The 2020 lines take into account there being limited/no crowds and are significantly lower than 2019 when crowds were present, and after all- that's the whole point.
So what changed?
In Week 1- - The Chargers 16-13 victory over the Bengals becomes a tie. - The Titans 16-14 victory over the Broncos becomes a Broncos victory.
In Week 2- - The Bills 31-28 victory over the Dolphins becomes a tie. - The Chiefs 23-20 victory over the Chargers becomes a tie.
In Week 3- - The Bengals 23-23 victory over tie with the Eagles becomes an Eagles victory. - The Titans 31-30 victory over the Vikings becomes a Vikings Victory. - The Lions 26-23 victory over the Cardinals becomes a tie.
We're on to the standings.

TEAM	TRUE	+3	+/-
NFC WEST
Seahawks	3-0	3-0	0
Cardinals	2-1	2-1	0
Rams	2-1	2-1	0
49ers	2-1	2-1	0
NFC EAST
Football Team	1-2	1-2	0
Cowboys	1-2	1-2	0
Eagles	0-2-1	1-2	⬆
Giants	0-3	0-3	0
NFC NORTH
Packers	3-0	3-0	0
Bears	3-0	3-0	0
Lions	1-2	1-2	⬇
Vikings	0-3	1-2	⬆
NFC SOUTH
Buccaneers	2-1	2-1	0
Saints	1-2	1-2	0
Panthers	1-2	1-2	0
Falcons	0-3	0-3	0
AFC WEST
Chiefs	3-0	2-0-1	0
Raiders	2-1	2-1	0
Chargers	1-2	0-1-2	0
Broncos	0-3	1-2	0
AFC EAST
Bills	3-0	2-0-1	0
Patriots	2-1	2-1	0
Dolphins	1-2	1-1-1	0
Jets	0-3	0-3	0
AFC NORTH
Steelers	3-0	3-0	0
Ravens	2-1	2-1	0
Browns	2-1	2-1	0
Bengals	0-2-1	0-2-1	0
AFC SOUTH
Titans	3-0	1-2	⬇
Colts	2-1	2-1	⬆
Jaguars	1-2	1-2	0
Texans	0-3	0-3	0

Not much has changed in the NFC standings. That one new win for the Eagles is enough to propel them into a three way tie for the lead in the NFC East. The Vikings stay in the NFC North basement, but have a new roommate in the now likewise 1-2 Lions.
Over in the AFC, even with two adjustments, the Bengals record remains the same. They swap the week three tie (now a loss to the Eagles) with the week one loss (now a tie with the Chargers) and remain 0-2-1. The Chiefs narrowly keep their lead as the gap throughout the entire division narrows. The Titans, clearly the biggest losers in this inane experiment, trade two close wins for losses and give up the top AFC South spot to the Colts.
Also, that's a lot of new ties. But that shouldn't be that surprising. After all, "over the past five years, a league-high 14.7% of NFL games were decided by exactly three points".
Something that I did pick up on is that the Bengals, Chargers and Titans are all playing pretty close ball games. Every single one of their games have been decided by single scores. The biggest final score differential in all of their games was the Chargers five point loss to Carolina. Both of their wins were by three. Titans have had one, two and three point wins, while the Bengals have had non-wins of five, three and nil.
If anyone sees any errors, let me know. As the season progresses, I'm sure the HARM standings will vary greatly when compared to the actual standings. Depending on the subs reaction, I've got no problem continuing to do this.
(edited to fix an error with the Dolphins adjusted record)

Rookie Report Special: Rookie buy or sell

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! The season is almost upon us. The NFL season kicks off Thursday, but if you’re like me you’ve likely put off most of your redraft fantasy drafts as long as possible in these uncertain COVID times. I’m guessing a large portion of fantasy leagues will be drafting over the long holiday weekend or early next week, and I wanted to give you some last minute tips on some rookies that you may not be as familiar with. The lists below are by no means a straight ranking of the rookies, rather it’s a look at which guys I am willing to reach for, which guys are a little too rich for my blood, and which guys I think are priced just about right based on FantasyPros average draft position. Let’s dive in…
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Guys I’m buying:

QB Tua Tagovailoa, MIA (Average Draft Postion: QB28): Recent camp headlines have made it clear that Ryan Fitzpatrick is going to be starting for Miami week 1, but it’s only a matter of time before Tua takes over under center. If you’re in superflex or 2-quarterback leagues, Tua is a guy you can draft as a QB3 at a deep discount who has a chance to smash once he gets onto the field. He’s an efficient and accurate passer in the mold of a young Drew Brees, and he’s currently being drafted later than Derek Carr, Gardner Minshew and Teddy Bridgewater. When you’re drafting that far down, I want the upside of the rookie over the known limitations of the other options.
RB Cam Akers, LAR (ADP: RB 26): An injury to Darrell Henderson is making it clear that Akers is the Rams’ back that you want for fantasy. He’s been a star in camp so far, and the Sean McVay offense is a good one for running back production. Todd Gurley was obviously an elite talent at the position, but he finished RB1, RB1, and RB12 in his 3 years under McVay and was clearly just a shell of himself in year 3. In his 3 years as Washington’s offensive coordinator McVay also got a top-15 season out of Alfred Morris and a top-25 season out of Robert Kelley. Akers should be better than either of those players. If he takes the job and runs with it, he has true RB1 upside that you can draft outside of the top-50 overall picks.
RB JK Dobbins, BAL (ADP: RB32): Clyde Edwards-Helaire has gotten a lot of press for falling into the absolute best scheme fit possible for him, but people have been ignoring that basically the same thing happened to Dobbins. Yes Mark Ingram is still in Baltimore for this season and Dobbins true upside may be a year away, but Gus Edwards carried the ball 133 times last season and the talent gap between Ingram and Dobbins isn’t as big as the gap between Ingram and Edwards. Dobbins is going to be a factor this season. I view him as someone who is likely to finish as a top-30 back and would have borderline RB1 upside this year if anything happens to Ingram. I’d much rather leave a draft with Dobbins than the guys going right in front of him – Jordan Howard, Kareem Hunt, Ronald Jones (this was written before the Fournette news).
RB Zack Moss, BUF (ADP: RB41): It appears Moss’s master plan of greasing up every football that Devin Singletary uses in practice is working, as Singletary’s summer fumbling woes have given Moss a leg-up over the incumbent for early-down and goal line work. The Bills still project to be a run-first football team despite the addition of Stefon Diggs, and there should be ample goal-line opportunities for Moss if he can cash them in. Frank Gore carried the ball 10 times from the 3-yard line or closer last season, but totaled zero yards and scored just 2 touchdowns on those attempts. Moss should play a similar role to the one Gore did last season, and if the Bills’ offense takes a step forward double-digit scores are not out of the question for him. You should be targeting Moss as an RB3 with upside for more, especially in half- and non-PPR formats.
RB Antonio Gibson, WAS (ADP: RB50): Washington surprisingly moved on from Adrian Peterson just a week before the season kicks off, and that can’t be anything but good news for Gibson. Peyton Barber is still a threat to handle the early-down work, but Barber isn’t anything special and given Gibson’s pass-catching skills he will probably finish the year as the top fantasy running back on the team. JD McKissic has shown himself to be a capable 3rd down back, and Bryce Love was explosive in college, but all signs in camp pointed to Gibson being ahead of them both on the depth chart. New head coach Ron Rivera and new offensive coordinator Scott Turner were both in Carolina last year, and they’ve compared Gibson’s dual-threat capabilities to those of Christian McCaffrey. That’s obvious hyperbole, but I think Gibson will get every opportunity to be the lead back in this offense, and is likely to finish as a top-30 running back that you can get quite a bit later than that. Be warned though: the Peterson news is going to move that ADP up in the coming days.
RB Josh Kelley, LAC (ADP: RB68): I honestly don’t know how to explain why Josh Kelley is being drafted later than AJ Dillon and Ke’Shawn Vaughn in redraft leagues. The Chargers lost Melvin Gordon in free agency this offseason, and all reports out of camp are that Kelley is going to be the guy who picks up most of the work that he left behind. Austin Ekeler is obviously a fantasy stud who will be worth the draft capital it costs to draft him, but he shouldn’t be a 20-touch per game kind of back, and the Chargers realize that. His efficiency as a runner last year was underwhelming as he averaged more than 4 yards per carry in just 5 out of 16 games (and fewer than 3 yards per carry 7 times). Ekeler’s value comes from his work in the passing game. I expect Kelley will open the year splitting early down work with Ekeler and growing into a bigger role as the season goes on. The rookie is an above average athlete (68th percentile SPARQ-x score) who posted over 1,000 yards in both of his college seasons at UCLA. To give you a little context on just how low RB68 is, Justin Jackson finished last season with 222 scrimmage yards and zero touchdowns and was the RB71 in non-PPR scoring. Kelley is a slam dunk to outproduce his ADP, and I expect he’ll do it by a lot. You should be looking to draft him as an RB4 and reaping the rewards as his role grows.
WR Denzel Mims, NYJ (ADP: WR67): Mims had the unfortunate luck of pulling a hamstring the day before training camp started, but he returned to practice this week and expects to be healthy enough to suit up week one. It’ll likely take him a few weeks to work his way into the starting lineup after missing so much practice time, but there is almost NO wide receiver talent ahead of him on the depth chart outside of slot maven Jamison Crowder. The rest of the options to play on the outside consist of Breshad Perriman who currently is dealing with a knee injury that could keep him out a bit, journeymen Chris Hogan & Donte Moncrief, and a trio of replacement-level players who may not even make the roster (Josh Malone, Vyncint Smith and Jehu Chesson). Mims is big, fast, and has excellent hands and body control. He improved his game throughout his college career and landed on a team that projects to be throwing a ton. He’s a natural fit as a deep threat who should complement Crowder’s short game well. He’ll be a great best-ball option and is a guy you should be targeting late in drafts, especially ones that are not full PPR leagues.
WR Bryan Edwards, LVR (ADP: WR72): Edwards’ college stats don’t jump off the page at you, never reaching 900 yards in any season, but South Carolina only reached 3,000 passing yards once in his 4 seasons there. As a freshman, Edwards had 21% of the team’s receiving yards in an offense that also featured Deebo Samuel and Hayden Hurst, and in the 10 games he played last year he totaled a whopping 35% of the team receiving yards. The former Gamecock should start right away in Las Vegas and will be a better option in the intermediate part of the field than Henry Ruggs or Hunter Renfrow. He’s already drawn rave reviews from his new QB Derek Carr, who has compared Edwards to his college teammate Davante Adams and former pro teammate James Jones. Edwards has a chance to be a total package alpha receiver in his career, and although he walks into a crowded group of pass catchers (Ruggs, Renfrow, Darren Waller, Jason Witten, Jalen Richard, etc.) he should get a chance to showcase his potential this year. There is a real chance that he finishes as the top fantasy WR on the Raiders this season, and you can get him in the late rounds of your draft.
WR Laviska Shenault, JAX (ADP: WR73): Shenault was long considered to be among the best wide receiver prospects in this class and a potential top-20 overall draft pick entering the 2019 season, but lackluster production in 2019 and injury woes drove his stock down a bit. He landed on what should be a miserably bad team, but that should afford him plenty of opportunities to play. He’s built like a running back but stands 6’2” and is dangerous with the ball in the open field. He was used in a lot of different ways in college (he had 9 more college rushing attempts than Antonio Gibson), and that versatility should make him a valuable part of a Jaguars’ offense that will be desperately looking for playmakers outside of DJ Chark. He should be available in the last couple rounds in most redraft leagues and is likely to have a big role as a rookie.
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Guys I’m selling:

RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire, KC (ADP: RB8): I understand the love for CEH. He landed in what seems like a dream spot, playing in the most explosive offense in the NFL that seems tailor-made for his skill set, and to top it off the returning starter at his position opted out of the 2020 season. “RB1!” “Take him in the first round!” Not so fast, I say. CEH posted just 1 productive college season and doesn’t have the freakish athletic profile of top backs like Saquon, Christian McCaffrey or Derrick Henry. He’ll certainly play right away in Kansas City, but he’s being drafted as though he’ll be an automatic workhorse back when it still remains to be seen if that’s the case. I do believe that Edwards-Helaire should be going in the top-20 picks in most drafts, but to get him in most leagues you’ll have to reach into the first round to do it. That’s a price I’m not willing to pay at this point. I’d rather take a top WR and get a player like Miles Sanders or Kenyan Drake in the 2nd or Austin Ekeler in the 3rd who can put up similar production at a lower cost.
RB Ke’Shawn Vaughn, TB (ADP: RB46): Vaughn was widely expected to compete with Ronald Jones for the starting job in Tampa this season, but that outlook has changed drastically in recent weeks with the signings of LeSean McCoy and Leonard Fournette. The Fournette signing just happened, so I would expect Vaughn’s ADP to take a significant tumble in the next few days. He’ll likely be limited to special teams for much of his rookie season barring injuries ahead of him.
RB AJ Dillon, GB (ADP: RB52): Dillon has been a popular name this summer after photos surfaced showing off his ridiculous tree trunk thighs in camp (basically the opposite of the kind of camp photos we were used to with Eddie Lacy). Despite how he looks in shorts, Dillon will be hard-pressed to make a huge impact for fantasy purposes this year. He’s likely going to eat into Jamaal Williams workload, but I don’t expect Williams to go away entirely. Aaron Jones is the Green Bay back you want, and I’d expect Dillon’s presence to make both Williams and Dillon bad bets to finish as productive fantasy backs. Williams has never finished higher than RB29 without Dillon to compete with. I’d steer clear of both.
WR Jerry Jeudy, DEN (ADP: WR41): Jeudy is an outstanding talent, but he goes to an offense that ranked 27th in passing attempts last season and is likely to lean on the run game again after adding Melvin Gordon to their backfield mix. Courtland Sutton is essentially a lock for 120+ targets, and Noah Fant should see a nice bump in volume as well. I’d expect Jeudy to wind up somewhere around 80 targets assuming health. 67 players had more than 80 targets last season, and we still aren’t certain whether or not Drew Lock is any good. I’m not too keen on drafting Jeudy at his current ADP.
WR Henry Ruggs, LVR (ADP: WR47): Ruggs was the first wide receiver taken in the NFL draft this year, but he isn’t the best one taken in the first round. He’s just the fastest. The Raiders will certainly get him involved in the offense after drafting him so high, and he is projected to open the season as a starter after Tyrell Williams had season-ending labrum surgery. The problem for Ruggs is that Derek Carr is notorious for not throwing the ball deep, and the deep ball is going to be the best opportunity for Ruggs to pile up fantasy points. Bryan Edwards is a more well-rounded wide receiver, and Hunter Renfrow and Darren Waller are better possession options in the short part of the field. Unless Carr changes his approach and starts throwing deep, or Gruden finds creative ways to scheme the ball to Ruggs, it’ll be hard for him to live up to the draft capital you’d have to spend on him.
TE Cole Kmet, CHI (ADP: TE29): Kmet is the only rookie tight end being drafted in the top-30 at the position, but I would be surprised if he finishes as the top scoring rookie tight end this year. Old man Jimmy Graham has been raved about as the best player at Bears’ camp and is likely going to be the starting tight end, and there are plenty of other tight ends on the roster who could factor in as well including Demetrius Harris and Adam Shaheen. I just don’t see an obvious path to a lot of early playing time for Kmet. The Bears should still be in win-now mode (despite the QB situation) and a rookie tight end playing a bunch doesn’t make sense with so many capable vets on the roster.
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Guys that are priced correctly:

These are players that are certainly worth drafting at their current ADP and may have upside for more, but also carry enough risk that I would be hesitant to reach too far for them. If you really like a player in this group, I wouldn’t fault you for reaching a bit for them to make sure you get them.
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QB Joe Burrow, CIN (ADP: QB18): In two quarterback leagues, Burrow is a good player to target as a second QB that you can get a little later who still gives you the upside you get from the QBs that would be going in the 12-15 range. He’s assuredly going to start week 1, and the Bengals do have enough weapons around him for him to succeed. There is always risk with a rookie QB, but Burrow is a gunslinger who will have a long leash and the Bengals will be throwing a lot.
RB Jonathan Taylor, IND (ADP: RB19): You don’t need me to tell you that Jonathan Taylor is good. In his *worst* college season he ran for 1,977 yards and 13 TDs. He was a monster at Wisconsin. Defenses knew he was getting the ball and still couldn’t stop him. He has monster upside in the NFL as well, but I’m going to throw a little bit of a wet blanket on that upside for this season. The Colts aren’t going to stop using Nyheim Hines on 3rd downs, so if you’re counting on much receiving production from Taylor you’re hanging your hat on Philip Rivers’ habit of heavily targeting his backs and hoping he catches a lot on early downs. Hines had 64% of the running back targets that Indy backs saw last season. A more likely scenario for Taylor is a dominant rushing season a la Derrick Henry. Derrick Henry finished last season as the RB5, but he also was the unquestioned starter from day one and handled 80% of the Titans’ non-QB rushing attempts. He was also the only top-10 back in PPR scoring that had fewer than 49 targets. Taylor will enter the year splitting the early down work with Marlon Mack, so it’s hard to envision him coming close to what Henry did last year. If you’re a big Taylor fan, I wouldn’t fault you for reaching into the mid-2nd round to make sure you get him, but know that he most likely won’t be producing what you paid for until the middle of the season.
RB D’Andre Swift, DET (ADP: RB29): Like Jonathan Taylor, Swift lands on a team that already has an established starting running back that has been solid, but not great. Kerryon Johnson’s injury history means that there is a solid chance that Swift will have some weeks as the starter, but if KJ stays healthy Swift will most likely work in tandem with him. I like Swift as a player, but Detroit hasn’t had a running back finish in the top-20 fantasy backs since Reggie Bush back in 2013, and I don’t like Swift’s chances of breaking that streak. In the last 4 seasons, 73% of Detroit’s offensive touchdowns have been scored through the air (league average is typically in the low to mid 60s). I’d rather draft Swift than Kerryon Johnson – he’s the more talented back, but I’d prefer a safer option if we’re talking about your #2 running back or a high end RB3.
WR CeeDee Lamb, DAL (ADP: WR38): Lamb is without a doubt the best wide receiver in this rookie class, but the pass-catching group in Dallas is crowded. Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup are both WR1 types who should command 120 or so targets apiece. Blake Jarwin and Zeke Elliot should combine for another 150. That still leaves room for Lamb to establish himself on the pass-happy Cowboys, but I’m not sure his breakout starts week 1. I think the best plan of attack with Lamb is to let someone else reach for him and then make a deal for him a few weeks into the season if the person who drafted him gets impatient.
WR Justin Jefferson, MIN (ADP: WR50): Jefferson was a first round draft pick in the NFL draft, but he finds himself opening the season as the WR3 behind Adam Thielen and Bisi Johnson in an offense that had more than 2 receivers on the field on just 25% of their snaps last season. No other team was below 40%. They also ranked 30th in the league in pass attempts. Offensive coordinator Kevin Stefanski bolted for Cleveland, and there should be a little bit of regression to the mean when it comes to their passing volume, but the run-heavy game plan is part of who Mike Zimmer wants this team to be. Jefferson should eventually overtake Bisi Johnson for the starting role opposite Thielen, but how high do you want to reach for a guy who likely won’t be producing like a top-40 WR until the back half of the season?
WR Jalen Reagor, PHI (ADP: WR52): I would be talking about Reagor as a player to target in your drafts, but one of the biggest factors working in his favor was the expected early season absence of Alshon Jeffery giving him the opportunity to establish himself in the offense. Instead, Reagor will miss the start of the season with an injury of his own and it’ll be JJ Arcega-Whiteside and John Hightower who should see the increased early opportunity instead. This passing game is still going to run through Zach Ertz, but Reagor was picked in the first round and brings game-breaking speed that the Eagles’ offense was desperate for last season. They’re going to get him on the field when he’s healthy. Three receiver sets should be made up of Jeffery, Reagor and DeSean Jackson for much of the season, and given the health history of the other two Jalen should have plenty of chances to produce. Reagor’s ADP isn’t crazy high, and the upside that he’ll bring in the back half of the season will make him worth the price tag even if he misses the first few games.
WR Brandon Aiyuk, SF (ADP: WR65): WR65 probably feels low given Aiyuk’s likely starting role and the injuries to Deebo Samuel and Jalen Hurd, but it’s sounding more and more like Samuel will be back by week 2 at the latest and this offense doesn’t run through the wide receivers. The 49ers had the 4th-fewest pass attempts in the league and the 5th-lowest wide receiver target share in the league (51%) last season. George Kittle and the running backs should remain very involved in this low-volume passing attack. Aiyuk has forged a nice rapport with Jimmy Garoppolo in camp and has a similar skill set to Deebo’s, but he figures to be the WR2 behind him for much of the season. In this offense, that makes him more of a WR5 for your fantasy team.
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Deep League Flyers:

These guys are basically going undrafted in most leagues but may be worth a flyer in really deep leagues or are at least worth monitoring in the early weeks of the season to see what kind of role they have.
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RB James Robinson, JAX: Jacksonville dumping Leonard Fournette just days before the season kicks off was a bit of surprise, but it opens the door for several young backs on their roster to get a chance. Reports out of camp suggest that Devine Ozigbo may have the inside track on the early down work, but Ryquell Armstead and Robinson should factor in as well. Armstead was the backup to Fournette last season, but he was placed on the league’s COVID reserve list on Friday opening the door further for the rookie. Robinson went undrafted after running just a 4.64 40-yard dash at the Combine, but he dominated the FCS level with 1,899 rushing yards and 18 TDs last season. He’s worth a late flyer in really deep leagues and worth monitoring early in the year in shallower formats. It’s not impossible that he beats out Ozigbo for the starting job.
WR John Hightower, PHI: Injuries will leave the Eagles’ WR depth chart wide open in the early part of the season with Alshon Jeffery and Jalen Reagor each sidelined for at least the first few weeks. The rest of the depth chart includes DeSean Jackson (33 years old and played just 3 games last year), JJ Arcega-Whiteside (had an extremely disappointing rookie season in 2019), and Greg Ward (AAF star who was serviceable when the team was depleted last year). The Eagles draft strategy at the WR position was clear after they struggled mightily to stretch the field last season. They wanted to add speed, and Hightower brings that. He averaged 18.3 yards per catch at Boise State last year and ran a 4.42 40-yard dash at the Combine. He should see the field early in the year, and if he flashes, he may keep seeing the field.
WR Van Jefferson, LAR: I admittedly wasn’t very high on Jefferson coming out of the draft despite the Rams taking him in the 2nd round. He’s old for a prospect at 24-years old entering his rookie season. He isn’t a supreme athlete, and he wasn’t overly productive in college (despite playing at an advanced age). He seems like a player best suited to the slot, but that’s also where Cooper Kupp does his best work. This all added up to Van looking like a long shot to see the field much as a rookie but reports out of camp are that he is going to beat out Josh Reynolds for the WR3 role in the offense. He’s the son of former standout NFL WR Shawn Jefferson, and he has the route-running acumen and natural feel for the game of someone who grew up around it. It’s possible the Rams play more 2-tight end sets given the departure of Brandin Cooks and the breakout of Tyler Higbee last season, but only the Bengals spent more snaps in 11 personnel (3-WR) than the Rams last season. Monitor the Rams offense early in the season. If they continue to play a lot of 3-WR sets, Jefferson is going to have some value in most leagues.
TE Devin Asiasi, NE: Rookie tight ends are notoriously poor fantasy producers, and there are a plethora of upside options to target this season among the veteran tight ends, but there might not be another rookie better positioned to produce in year 1 than Asiasi. He was considered mostly a pass-catching tight end when drafted, but his blocking has also drawn raves in camp and the only thing standing between him and a starting role is Matt LaCosse. The Patriots’ offense is light on receiving weapons, and Cam Newton has always liked throwing to his tight ends. Asiasi is no Greg Olsen, but he has a legitimate chance to be a top-20 tight end as a rookie.
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That’s all I’ve got for now. I’ll be back next week with a quick look at some week one rookie matchups, but feel free to hit me up on twitter (@Shawn_Foss) if you have any questions or anything you want to yell at me about that’s written above. If you’ve already done your draft, you can use this info to help you target early season trade or waiver wire candidates if another person in your league gets impatient with a slow start. If you haven’t drafted yet, good luck in your drafts and enjoy the holiday weekend. As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game. Original article from drinkfive.com

1. Introduction

The Eagles have been a good model of consistency. Over the past 20 years, they have had just four losing seasons.
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It wasn’t always pretty, but Philly managed to secure the NFC East title with a 9-7 record last year. They closed out the regular season with a four-game winning streak to edge the Cowboys atop the division.
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Unfortunately, Carson Wentz exited the wildcard playoff game early and the team couldn’t overcome his absence in a 17-9 home loss to the Seahawks.
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2. Offensive Position-by-Position Breakdown

2.1 Quarterbacks (QBs)
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Carson Wentz needs to be applauded for his 2019 performance.
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He had to deal with numerous injuries to his receiving corps and yet, he led the team to a playoff spot and he finished with a career-high in passing yards with 4,039. He threw 27 TD passes versus 7 interceptions, while playing all 16 games for the first time since his rookie season in 2016.
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In the season finale, his top targets were Boston Scott, Dallas Goedert, Josh Perkins, Deontay Burnett and Greg Ward. Outside of Goedert, none is an established starter in the NFL. The Eagles still secured the NFC East title with a 34-17 road win in New York.
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Philadelphia selected Jalen Hurts late in the second round of this year’s draft. He transferred from Alabama to Oklahoma for his senior year since Tua Tagovailoa was projected to be the starter. Hurst was actually replacing Kyler Murray who had just been taken as the number one overall pick in the 2019 NFL draft by the Cards.
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Hurts did not disappoint in his lone season with the Sooners. He completed 237-of-340 passes (69.7%) with 3,851 passing yards, along with 32 TD passes and eight interceptions. He also rushed for 1,298 yards with 20 TDs on the ground!
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His weaknesses are an average accuracy, inconsistent decision-making and a tendency to take off as a runner too often (sometimes when a receiver was open). He is likely to be used as a gadget player by Doug Pederson this year.
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Nate Sudfeld will compete for the backup job. He missed the entire 2019 season due to a wrist injury he suffered during preseason. He was a sixth-round pick out of Indiana in the 2016 draft. He has attempted just 25 passes in the NFL in four years, so it’s hard to tell what to expect from him.
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2.2 Running Backs (RBs)
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Miles Sanders’ rookie season was a resounding success. He led all rookies with 1,327 yards from scrimmage.
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He carried a heavier workload as the season went on. During the first eight games, he averaged 8.3 carries per game, as opposed to 14.1 over the last nine contests (including the playoff loss to the Seahawks).
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Jordan Howard’s injury at midseason contributed to the increased usage of Sanders in the backfield. With Howard gone to Miami, the sky’s the limit for second-round pick out of Penn State.
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Darren Sproles retired and Jay Ajayi was waived. That leaves the door wide open for third-year man Boston Scott. He flashed big time last year and unquestionably passed my eye test. The 5’6’’ back is very explosive.
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Scott made a name for himself in Week #17 as he had to step in for Sanders who sprained an ankle in the first quarter against the Giants. Scott went on to rack up 138 total yards and three touchdowns.
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2.3 Wide Receivers (WRs)
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This unit was decimated by injuries last year. DeSean Jackson pretty much played just one game, while Alshon Jeffery and Nelson Agholor missed six and five games, respectively.
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Despite playing under his age-32 campaign, Jackson showed he still has field-stretching abilities in his lone meeting last year. He was spectacular with 8 catches for 154 yards and a couple of scores. He hasn’t played a full 16-game season very often in his career though.
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Jeffery is another aging receiver coming off a significant injury. He underwent Lisfranc surgery, which requires a long rehab period. He’s questionable for the start of training camp.
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Since two outstanding seasons in 2013 and 2014 with the Bears, Jeffery has missed four games per year on average, while showing signs of slowing down on the field as well. His 11.4 yards-per-catch average last year was a career low.
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To be honest, I feel like Jeffery’s time in the league is coming to an end soon. Lisfranc injuries can be tricky for wide receivers, and full recovery is even more difficult for guys above 30 years of age.
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Nelson Agholor was a younger WR who could have provided adequate depth, but he signed with the Raiders. The former first-rounder has not lived up to expectations, but he was still a decent pass catcher, albeit his drops were a big issue last year. Maybe a change of scenery will help rejuvenate his career.
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Philly drafted Jalen Reagor with the #21 pick overall last April. He’s a smallish deep threat who is at his best on straight routes. He was good with contested catches, but will it still be the case in the NFL given his size? That’s a big question mark.
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Reagor opened a lot of eyes by scoring eight touchdowns as a freshman with TCU after being a high recruit out of high school. He followed up with a great 72-1061-9 receiving line as a sophomore.
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Reagor’s numbers dropped quite a bit as a junior (43-611-5), but you can attribute that to having a freshman QB at the helm. He’s an electrifying player who can take it to the house every time he touches the ball.
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The competition for the number three role is also likely to involve Greg Ward and J.J. Arcega-Whiteside. These two guys have had completely different paths before making it to the NFL.
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Ward went undrafted before joining the AAF. He eventually was added to the Eagles’ practice squad, and later on promoted to the 53-man roster until a depleted receiving corps forced him onto the field.
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Meanwhile, Arcega-Whiteside had more of a “conventional” journey by being drafted in the second-round of the 2019 draft.
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Such resumes would suggest Arcega-Whiteside would be the superior wideout, but that’s not what we saw on the field. He only caught 10-of-22 targets for a disappointing 45% catch rate. He was rarely targeted down the stretch, despite the numerous injuries at the position.
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On the other hand, Ward filled in admirably late in the season. Over the final four meetings, including the playoff game, he caught 20-of-25 targets (an 80% catch rate). He clearly deserves a shot as a top reserve for the upcoming season.
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2.4 Tight Ends (TEs)
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The Eagles have a nice duo at the tight end position with Zach Ertz and Dallas Goedert.
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Ertz is a true warrior. He hasn’t missed more than two games in each of his first seven season in the league. Last year, he played with two rib fractures one week after lacerating his kidney. Talk about a tough guy.
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His numbers are also staggering. His lowest figures in terms of receptions and receiving yards over the past five years are 74 and 816. That’s truly remarkable! Please note that he’ll be turning 30 years old during the season.
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Just like Ertz, Goedert is also a former second-rounder. However, he is four years younger. He caught 58 passes for 607 yards and 5 TDs, all career-highs. He was targeted 4 times per game on average before the team’s bye week versus an average of 7.9 for the remainder of the year. Granted, injuries to other targets probably boosted his numbers, but he still developed nice chemistry with Wentz.
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2.5 Offensive Line (OL)
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The Eagles have a heck of an offensive line.
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You cannot blame Jason Kelce for anything over the past five years. He hasn’t missed any start, while consistently being one of the top centers in the league. As a matter of fact, he was rated as the #1 center in the NFL according to PFF grades last year. He’s now 32 years old.
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Left tackle Jason Peters has been just as good as Kelce. He was nominated to nine Pro Bowls in his career and he finished as the number 6 tackle in the league with his 83.4 PFF mark. Unfortunately, the team decided to let the 38-year old hit the free agency market. EDIT: he was re-signed three days ago (this article was written several weeks ago). He is projected to play guard instead of tackle.
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Peters will be replaced with 2019 first-round pick, Andre Dillard. Is he ready to take on the full-time job? It remains to be seen, but it will be difficult to fill Peters’ shoes.
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As for Lane Johnson, the right tackle finished as the 3rd-best tackle in the league based on the PFF grading system. He’s been very good throughout his seven-year career; the former #4 overall pick has not disappointed at all!
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Brandon Brooks also had a huge 2019 season! He ended the year as the top guard in the NFL with a jaw-dropping 92.9 PFF mark. Much like Lane Johnson, Brooks is another player above 30 years old who’s been reliable his entire career.
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Left guard Isaac Seumalo started all 16 games for the first time of his career. He’s the one that received the lowest grades on this OL, but finishing 17th out of 81 guards is nothing to be ashamed of! The former third-round pick from the 2016 draft is not as talented as his colleagues, but you could do worse than having him as one of your starters.
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The team lost good depth with the departure of Halapoulivaati Vaitai to Detroit. The 2019 season was clearly his best year; it would have been nice to retain him but he signed a huge contract with the Lions.
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2020 VS 2019 OFFENSE
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When comparing the upcoming 2020 season with last year, there are some positives and some negatives.
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Let’s discuss the negative stuff first. I do expect a downgrade on the offensive line. They played at an extremely high level last year with four guys finishing among the 6 players at their respective position (based on PFF rankings). That’s unlikely to happen again, especially with three linemen aged 30 years or above.
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Also, second-year man Andre Dillard has good potential, but it will be difficult to match Jason Peters’ 2019 performance. I do expect a drop-off here.
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At quarterback and tight end, the situation remains stable.
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At the running back position, losing Jordan Howard to free agency won’t hurt too much with the emergence of electrifying Boston Scott. Also, Miles Sanders is expected to take a leap in his sophomore season.
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Finally, how could you not expect better production from the WR group? They were hit by the injury bug a lot last year. Agholor’s departure is a moderate blow; getting DeSean Jackson back is a bonus! Hopefully, speedy rookie Jalen Reagor can provide a spark to an offense that sorely missed game breakers last year.
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The Eagles offense scored the 12th-highest number of points last year. My final conclusion, based on the arguments above, is that I expect similar production in 2020.
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Final call (2020 vs 2019): Stable
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3. Defensive Position-by-Position Breakdown

3.1 Defensive Linemen (DLs)
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Fletcher Cox is an animal. Plain and simple.
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Despite posting his second-lowest sack output of his illustrious eight-year career, he still graded as the 4th-best interior defenders in the NFL based on PFF rankings. On average, he has recorded 6 sacks per year (he only got 3.5 last year)
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He has also been very durable; he’s missed just three games out 128. He still has good years to come at age 29.
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Tim Jernigan was a decent starter next to Cox, but he clearly wasn’t needed on the team anymore after the Eagles signed stud DT Javon Hargrave. The former Steeler showed steady improvement in each of his first four years in the NFL. His 83.4 PFF mark last year put him in the 8th spot out of 114 DLs.
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With Hargrave entering his prime years and Fletcher Cox being a perennial beast, good luck running the ball inside the tackles against the Eagles in 2020.
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After playing three years in Indy, Hassan Ridgeway had a below-average season in his first year with the Eagles. He’s more of a rotational player, whom you hope won’t be needed as a starter.
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3.2 Defensive Ends (DEs) / Edge Rushers (ED)
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Brandon Graham is 32 years old, but he refuses to slow down. He led the team with 8.5 sacks last year, and he has averaged six sacks over an eight-year period!
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The guy also finds a way to stay on the field. Can you believe he has missed a single game in eight years! He’s been consistently good and remains a force, both against the run and rushing the passer.
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Derek Barnett is a former first-rounder coming off a career-high in sacks with 6.5. However, his 2019 PFF grade was the lowest of his three-year stint in the NFL and he finished as the number 83 edge defender out of 107 qualifiers. He’s an “okay” player.
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Vinny Curry played 38% of the snaps last year, but it does not appear like he will be back with the team. At the time of writing, he was still a free agent. He did pick up five sacks last year, but teams seem reluctant to sign him because he’ll be playing his age-32 campaign. He actually played pretty well when called upon.
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With Curry gone, the team must hope Josh Sweat will elevate his game. The 2018 fourth-round selection posted his first four sacks of his career last year, but his 62.5 overall PFF mark ranked him as the 76th-best edge defender out of 107 guys.
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3.3 Linebackers (LBs)
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After playing four years in Buffalo and four years in Philly, Nigel Bradham was cut by the Eagles, mainly for cap reasons. He provided average play at the LB position; he was good in coverage, but he was a liability defending the run.
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The team also lost Kamu Grugier-Hill, who signed with the Dolphins. You could characterize him as a decent player, albeit far from being great.
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That leaves the team pretty thin at the position.
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Nathan Gerry is the lone 2019 starter that is still with the team. He ranked as the 34th-best linebacker out of 89 players. He does not offer much upside, though. It would be stunning to see him crack the top 25 someday.
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Can Duke Riley and/or T.J Edwards crack the starting lineup? Neither seem to be an up-and-coming star. Riley was acquired for peanuts prior to last year and he played 35 snaps. As for Edwards, he was an undrafted rookie out of Wisconsin that did well in limited time last year. He proved to be stout against the run.
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3.4 Cornerbacks (CBs)
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Philly’s back end has been revamped for the upcoming 2020 season.
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The Eagles signed one of the best slot corners in the league: Nickell Robey-Coleman. He has received consistently good grades from ProFootballFocus over the past four years. At 5’8’’ he is pretty small, but you couldn’t tell from the quality of his game. He’s a nice addition.
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Philly also acquired Darius “Big Play” Slay, who played the first seven years of his career with the Lions. He had a down year in 2019, but I’m not worried he can rebound in a new environment. He’s been covering opponent’s top receivers for a while in this league, and he’s done a good job at it. He has 19 career interceptions.
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Ronald Darby’s career has been plagued with injuries recently and he was let go during the offseason. His PFF grade took an enormous drop last year, all the way from a respectable 70.6 in 2018 down to an abysmal 44.8 last year. He signed a one-year deal with the Redskins.
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Rasul Douglas and Avonte Maddox are still on the team, but neither has proven to be an impactful contributor. Both graded as very below-average corners in 2019.
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3.5 Safeties (S)
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Malcolm Jenkins and Rodney McLeod both played the entire 2019 season. They ranked as the 32nd- and 52nd-best out of a bunch of 87 safeties.
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The organization and Jenkins couldn’t agree on a deal, so the Eagles had to let him go after six very successful seasons. He picked off 11 passes during his six-year stint in Philly. He signed with the Saints, with which he spent the first five seasons of his career. Even though he wasn’t getting any younger, his present will be missed.
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McLeod’s 2019 PFF grade was the lowest he had obtained over the past five years, but he still did a decent job.
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Jalen Mills will be one piece of the puzzle in replacing Jenkins. But let’s face the reality: he has been pretty awful throughout his four-year career, except 2017 where he did better.
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Another option will be newly acquired Will Parks, who is coming over from Denver. However, he’s clearly not a long-term solution either. He’s pretty versatile, but he’s a below-average player.
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2020 VS 2019 DEFENSE
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This unit was upgraded quite a bit during the offseason at two positions, but it also suffered a severe downgrade at a couple others.
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First, acquiring Javon Hargrave to team up with Fletcher Cox on the interior of the line was big! At CB, getting Darius Slay and Nickell Robey-Coleman will provide much needed help at a position that has caused headaches for years in Philly.
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Unfortunately, the defense lost its best safety when Malcolm Jenkins signed with the Saints. Also, even though none of them was a true difference maker, losing linebackers Nigel Bradham and Kamu Grugier-Hill creates a hole.
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Since the team acquired some big time players while losing good/average players, I envision a small improvement. In 2019, the Eagles finished in the middle of the pack in terms of points allowed per game (15th out of 32 teams). I envision Philly finishing around the #10-#13 spot this year.
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Final call (2020 vs 2019): Small upgrade
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4. Regular Season Wins

According to sportsbooks, the Eagles are expected to win 9.5 games this season. Should we bet the “over” or the “under”?
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Here is the methodology I used in order to answer this vital question:

• Use BetOnline.ag’s point spreads on all 256 regular season games.
• Convert those point spreads into win probabilities.
• Simulate each of the 256 games, according to those win probabilities, via the R statistical software.
• Repeat the previous step one million times (you get 1M simulated seasons).
• Count the proportion of seasons where the Eagles won more or less than 9.5 games.

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Here are the results:
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	Estimated Probability	Sportsbook	Odds	ROI
OVER 9.5 WINS	42.3%	FanDuel	-105	-17.4%
UNDER 9.5 WINS	57.7%	Pinnacle	-103	+13.7%

Tip: Bet UNDER 9.5 wins
Return On Investment (ROI): +13.7%
Rank: 19th-highest ROI out of 32 teams
Minimum odds required to bet (i.e. ROI = 0%): -136
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Here are BetOnline’s point spreads for the Eagles’ 16 regular season games:

• HOME: +2 vs BAL, -10 vs CIN, -2.5 vs DAL, -4 vs LAR, 0 vs NO, -5 vs NYG, -2 vs SEA, -10.5 vs WAS.
• ROAD: +1.5 @ ARI, 0 @ CLE, +2 @ DAL, +2.5 @ GB, -3.5 @ NYG, +1.5 @ PIT, +5.5 @ SF, -6 @ WAS.

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Note: The “Best odds” from the table above were obtained after looking at 13 well-known online sportsbooks on May 18th, 2020.
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I invite you to take a look at my other 31 NFL team previews! Good information if you are involved in fantasy football and/or if you want to be up-to-date on player movement and teams' strengths and weaknesses (for betting purposes)!
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Cheers,
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Professor MJ

It has been a very disappointing start for the Dallas Cowboys and they hope to avoid a losing streak as they host the New York Giants this Saturday, October 11 for their NFL Week 5 matchup. CBS is going to cover the game live from the AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas at exactly 4:25 PM Eastern Time. SofaScore and NFL Game Pass are options for football fans to catch the game through online live streaming. The Giants have yet to earn their first win of the season and this is not going to be that game as NFL Sports Betting has the Dallas Cowboys winning this game with a wide margin.
Visit: https://www.betnow.eu/nfl/new-york-giants-vs-dallas-cowboys-10-11-2020-tips-results-and-odds/

Hello Friends,
Over in the Fg Discord this season we have put together a game guide each week where each day we look a little deeper into the upcoming matchup. It begins with a short recap of the prior game and moves forward from there. If you are not yet in the discord, please join us! We'd love to have you. We have daily discussions on recruiting, analysis, and most of the time we just hang out and chat Florida Gators.
Discord Invite Link
Without further ado, the Game Guide. Let us know what you think and if you have any ideas or feedback, we'd love to hear it. Special thanks to Chitowngator and Eric-UF for their contributions this week.
Week 1 Recap
Week 4 of Football, Week 1 of SEC play had the Gators kicking off against Ole Miss in the Grove. Your Florida Gators took care of business with a final score of 51-35. Coming into the game Oddsshark, had the line for this game at -13.5, with an estimated scoreline of Florida 41.5 - 23.6 Ole Miss. Turns out that was pretty close, although if you bet on the "over" you'd be a definite winner. This game was nearly a shootout due to "lack of availability" for the Gators on defense for several key players, including an early game ejection of starting safety Shawn Davis. Other notable absences were Stewart and Campbell. Ole Miss came out quick early and Lane Kiffin showed he had a few tricks up his sleeve. Even these tricks were no match for the dueling Kyles of the Gators, who lit up Ole Miss like a Christmas candle. Don't you love fall? The Gators were never in any real danger, however, and played multiple freshmen throughout the game, getting valuable experience on key targets such as Bogle, Whittemore, and more.
The Gators were rewarded for their effort Sunday by a #3 ranking in both the AP and Coaches Poll, seeing Georgia and Oklahoma fall in the poll.
Stat leaders were as follows:
Passing: Kyle Trask - 30/42 - 416 Yards - 9.9 AVG - 6:0 TD:Int - 93.4 QBR Rushing: Kadarius Toney - 2 Carries for 55 Yards - 27.5 AVG - Long of 50, Dameon Pierce - 9 Carries for 54 Yards - 6.0 AVG., Malik Davis - 7 Carries for 49 Yards - 7.0 AVG.
Note: On throws 20+ yards downfield, Kyle Trask went 4 for 5, 126 Yards, and 4 TDs. It was an explosive night for anyone named "Kyle".
Defensively, here's some stats of note:
Ventrell Miller - 15 Tackles (13 solo), 1 Sack, 2 TFL Brenton Cox - 8 Tackles (4 solo), 1 Sack, 2.5 TFL 1 Interception - Gervon Dexter - Forced by Brenton Cox
Team Stats:
3rd Down Efficiency - UF: 6 for 10. Ole Miss: 9 for 14 (0-1 on 4th Down) Penalties - 4 for 40 yards. Time of Possession - 33:29 UF to 26:31 Ole Miss Total Yards: UF - 642, Ole Miss - 613 Total Rushing: 29 Carries for 196 Yards - Good for 6.8 Yards per Rushing Total Passing: 31 for 45 for 446 Yards - Good for 9.9 Yards per Pass.
The FG Discord Mod team has selected a few players from the game as their "Player of the Game". They are as follows:
Zlat: To avoid spoiling the podcast, this selection has been redacted, and will be updated at podcast release Stev: Offensively, my pick has to be Trask. It was always going to be Trask or Pitts but they are two sides of the same coin. Does one have as much success without the other? Defensively, I have to go with Cox. He played up to the expectation of the #1 Jersey to me and my pick reflects it as such. Chitown: "Defense - Ventrell Miller was a dominating force and added a sack as well. He helped anchor down a few of our bigger defensive stops. Most improved player - KT. Seemed to have dedicated himself to learning routes and looked much more complete than his previous plays. Can actually play a vital role in the offense instead of being used in gadget-type plays." Toph:To avoid spoiling the podcast, this selection has been redacted, and will be updated at podcast release
Matchup Preview
This week, the Gators host South Carolina who are coming off a defeat to Tennesee 31-27. Tennessee almost blew a 2-TD lead but Gamecocks weren't able to close it out. Will South Carolina have a rebound, or a slump?
Some stats of note
South Carolina is dealing with a QB situation, much like other teams in the SEC.. They started Colin Hill, a journeyman Senior who was pedestrian at best. He put up a statline of 25 for 39, 290 Yards - 7.4 AVG 1:1 TD-Int ratio and a QBR of 51.1 His rushing stats were far less impressive due to 4 sacks given up.
On the receiving end, though, Senior Shi Smith had himself a night with 10 receptions for 140 yards and a TD. He could have a similar game to Elijah Moore if the UF DB's don't figure out the gameplan quickly.
South Carolina struggled heavily to run the ball against the Tennesee DL. The team only put up 89 rushing yards with a 2.5 AVG and a long of 13. They were able, however, to punch it in from close twice for 2 TDs.
The matchup has opened as high as -22.5 Florida on some sites but has settled down to -19.5 according to Oddsshark. What are your key things to look for in this game? I would watch the Defensive adjustments to see how they handle a lesser offense. There's a good chance Ole Miss was the best offense we'll face all season. Will the younger DBs pickup the scheme? Will we stunt more on the DL?
There's no doubt the offense will continue to fly high and have success with the attention Kyle Pitts commands. What are your predictions? Personally, I'm guessing 41-17.
Today's write-up on players to watch provided by chitowngator USCjr Names to Watch Out For
Offense
QB - Collin Hill (Grad Transfer)* Stephen Garcia Collin Hill is a graduate transfer that arrived at USCjr from Colorado State, following over the Cocks' new Offensive Coordinator, Mike Bobo. Beating out last year's starter, Ryan Hilinski, Hill previously was the starter at CSU, before getting injured 3 games into the 2019 campaign with his 3rd ACL tear. Against Tennessee, he threw for 290 yards with a 64% completion rate, tacking on a touchdown and a tipped pass that resulted in a pick-six.
Look for Hill to stretch the defense North/South and attack the middle of the field, especially after the tape we put against Ole Miss. Against Rocky Top, Hill had 5 completions over 20 yards, including 3 to Shi Smith.
WR - Shi Smith (Senior
To say Shi Smith was USCjr's offense on Saturday is an understatement. Smith caught 13 of the 25 total completed passes for a whopping 140 yards, including a 29 yard touchdown.
After losing Bryan Edwards to the NFL, Smith is the only returning receiver at South Carolina with any meaningful offensive production (43 receptions, 489 yards). Look for Mike Bobo to use Smith's breakaway speed to beat Florida over the top, like Exhibit A(Fade route, man-to-man coverage), Exhibit B(skinny post into double coverage), and Exhibit C(post route)
RB - Kevin Harris (Sophomore)
Following the departures of seniors Rico Dowdle and Tavien Feaster, Harris is stepping in to replace the highly-touted freshman RB Marshawn Lloyd, who suffered a season-ending ACL tear in late August. Harris is a physical runner who won't hesitate to try and bowl over an opponent. Harris received the majority of the carries against Tennessee, rushing for 55 yards on 13 carries, and adding a touchdown.
You can also expect to see additional carries split between Deshaun Fenwick and Zaquandre White, as this running back by committee approach combined for 26 of USC's 31 rushing attempts, amassing 105 yards in the process.
Defense
CB - Israel Mukuamu (Junior)
Mukuamu's breakout moment came last year in USCjr's victory over UGA, where he picked off Jake Fromm 3 times, including this beauty of a pick-six, where Mukuamu made Fromm look like the giant baby that he really is.
Last weekend, Mukuamu experienced a groin injury, forcing him out of the game in the second half against Tennessee. While South Carolina returns a relatively experienced secondary in Jaycee Horn (CB, Jr), RJ Roderick (S, Jr), and Jammie Robinson (CB, So, 2019 SEC All-Freshman), they lack depth as corner Cam Smith (RS-Fr) replaced him.
DT - Kingsley (JJ) Enagbare (Junior)
Enagbare was easily the defensive player of the game against Tennessee. In the contest, he had 9 tackles and 2.5 tackles for loss, including 2 sacks and a forced fumble. As he worked more snaps than any of USC's other defensive tackles, expect him to step up to take the place of 1st round draft pick, Javon Kinlaw. Here's a video of him putting the lockdown on GuantanamoBay last weekend to force the Vols to punt.
You can also expect contributions from Keir Thomas (DT, RS-Sr), Aaron Sterling(DE, Sr), as well as highly ranked 5* underclassmen Zacch Pickens (DT, So), and Jordan Burch (DE, Fr).
Talent/Position Group Comparison
Thanks to our friend Eric-UF, we've gotten a talent comparison (as seen on the sub in prior seasons) of the upcoming matchup for South Carolina. Today, we'll just look at one position group vs. one poisition group. As a recap, the talent ratings are adjusted to account for experience from a freshmen to senior level. The Raw ratings are not.
As many saw and have debated about in length since last week's game, our defense struggled a bit against the Ole Miss up-tempo offense and a scrambling QB. The good news is Collin Hill shouldn't be running on us like Corral did. The bad news is that he's not a terrible quarterback. He's no Drew Lock, though. He's pretty pedestrian but he does have the experience, as he's a senior and has been in college football long enough to be average.
As seen here
Our DBs are at an adjusted 0.861 talent level compared to a 0.908 raw, which means we are very young in the defensive back field. South Carolina's receivers are boasting a 0.901 raw, 0.841 adjusted. Just like us, they have talent receivers who just need a bit more time in college football. We spoke earlier about Shi Smith - He's the dangerous one.
This comes out to be a Draw, or if nothing else a very slight Florida edge for the Florida DB's. This should be a fantastic learning experience against an SEC opponent for our young backfield.

hey guys I'm looking to get into DFS for this NFL season. I just have never been to sure what the proper way to go about it is.
-Which contests are the best to participate in? Obviously I want to enter the big tournaments to bet a little and win a lot but that is clearly not the way to win money. Which contests offer the best odds with the least influence by running into too many sharks.
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-Roster Tips? The few times I've played i run into people picking multiple kickers. I figured the best way to go was to throw a QB into your MVP and then work from there being that QBs score the most points. Then I saw a lot of kickers being used. Feel like theres a strategy to what positions to be choosing from.
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Anything else you can offer me is greatly appreciated. THANKS!

1. Introduction

Matt LaFleur’s first season as Green Bay’s head coach has to be considered a success. He led the team to a 13-3 record, which secured the NFC North title.
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The Packers held off the Seahawks to a 28-23 home win in the first round of the playoffs, but were ousted by the Niners in a brutal 37-20 thumping (a game in which the Packers dugged themselves into an early 27-0 hole).
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2. Offensive Position-by-Position Breakdown

2.1 Quarterbacks (QBs)
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Aaron Rodgers will be entering his 16th NFL season. He had another excellent year with a 26-to-4 TD-to-INT ratio and over 4,000 passing yards. He finished as the 7th-best QB in the league according to PFF ratings.
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At 36 years old, he is likely to have a few good years left. After all, Drew Brees and Tom Brady posted nice statistics in their late thirties.
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Rodgers has been very durable throughout his career, but he’s not invincible either. Tim Boyle was the backup plan last year, and the team needed to upgrade the position while starting to think about the post-Rodgers era.
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Still, drafting Jordan Love was the most questionable and talked-about pick in this year’s draft. People expected the Packers to go with a veteran backup QB. Rodgers has mentioned several times he wants to play in his forties; he can still offer a good five years of solid play in the frozen tundra.
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Love has possesses great size, throws with velocity and he’s very mobile. The main knock on him is the decision-making and inconsistency.
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As a sophomore, he threw 32 TD passes versus 6 interceptions. He regressed a lot last year by posting a mediocre 20:17 TD:INT mark. Granted, his surrounding cast was very weak and he had to go through a coaching change.
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Love can throw from many different arm angles; he reminds people of Patrick Mahomes in this regard. He can throw a fastball or a soft touch pass.
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Quick note: he almost quit football when he was 14 years old after his dad committed suicide. However, he knew his dad would want him to keep playing, so he did just that.
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2.2 Running Backs (RBs)
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Aaron Jones is a top running back in this league. Along with Jamaal Williams, they form a lethal duo.
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Including the playoffs, Jones ended up scoring 23 touchdowns in 18 games. His 19 regular season scores were the second most in Packers history. His numbers have increased in each of his first three years as a pro. He is also excellent as a pass catcher.
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Despite playing in the shadow of Aaron Jones, Jamaal Williams still finished as the 17th-best RB based on PFF rankings. He does not seem like a lead back, but he’s a perfect change-of-pace guy. Much like Jones, he can do some damage as a receiver as well.
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Williams has been a steady performer thus far in his career. He has rushed for 450-550 yards in each of his three seasons, while catching a minimum of 25 balls. He has 15 total TDs over this three-year span.
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If you thought GM Brian Gutekunst made a strange move by drafting QB Jordan Love in the first round, he doubled down with another head scratcher in the 2nd round when he took A.J. Dillon.
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Message to Mr. Gutekunst: Aaron Rodgers needed pass catchers, not a third running back! I really don’t get this pick either. I’m not saying Dillon won’t be good in the NFL; only time will tell. However, it clearly wasn’t a position of need for the Packers.
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Dillon is a power back who rarely breaks off huge runs. He racked up big numbers in three seasons in Boston College. He’s unlikely to become a three-down starter, especially since he’s not a good pass catcher. He will likely be used sporadically as a rookie.
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2.3 Wide Receivers (WRs)
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Davante Adams is one of the best at his position. He had a streak of three straight seasons with at least 10 TD receptions snapped last year, but he still caught 83 passes for 997 yards in 12 games (he missed four games because of a toe injury).
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Outside of Adams, all pass catchers appeared lost on the field. None of them developed a good chemistry with Rodgers.
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Marquez Valdes-Scantling was a huge disappointment last year. He showed promise as a rookie with over 500 receiving yards. Here’s a jaw-dropping statistic: after Week #7, MVS did not get more than 19 receiving yards in any meeting. That’s awful.
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One of the guys benefiting from Valdes-Scantling’s poor play was Jake Kumerow. He got more playing time than expected, but still only caught 12 passes. He is closing in on 30 years of age and is limited as an athlete, so he’s not a long-term answer for sure.
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Allen Lazard was also thrown into action far more than expected. He finished second in terms of receiving yards for Green Bay, but let’s face the reality: the undrafted guy remains more of a #3 or #4 WR for any team.
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Geronimo Allison was another bust last year. His top performance over the last 12 games (including the playoffs) was a meager 33 receiving yards. He left for another NFC North team, the Detroit Lions.
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In other words, the #2 role is wide open. The team hopes newly acquired Devin Funchess can step into that role. The former second rounder had his best season in 2017 with the Panthers with a 63-840-8 stat line. He signed with the Colts last year, but played just one game before breaking a collarbone. He will be 26 years old this season and provides an interesting prospect for the Packers.
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2.4 Tight Ends (TEs)
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We’re not done talking about 2019 busts. Jimmy Graham was one of them. He clearly looks washed. He received the lowest grades of his 10-year career, and deservedly so. The Packers released him and he signed a few days later with the Bears (a horrible mind-boggling two-year, $16 million contract).
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Marcedes Lewis received surprisingly good marks from PFF. If you look into the numbers, the good grade occurred mainly because of efficient run and pass blocking. He’s not much of a pass catcher and he will be 36 years old when the season begins.
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Robert Tonyan will also be in the mix, but the guy that has the best chance to break out as a receiver in 2020 only caught three passes last year (all in the playoffs): Jace Sternberger. Taken in the third round of the 2019 draft, Sternberger was a threat at Texas A&M in college. He missed most of the regular season because of injuries, but the door is wide open with Graham’s departure.
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We might also see third-round rookie Josiah Deguara. He has a great motor and plays extremely hard. He’s undersized as a tight end, though.
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2.5 Offensive Line (OL)
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The Packers had a pretty solid offensive line in 2019. All five starters managed to play at least 84% of the offensive snaps. And they all finished above-average according to PFF ratings!
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The bad news, however, is the Bryan Bulaga left for the Chargers. Despite turning over 30 years old, he still played at a high level.
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The Packers decided to replace him by signing Rick Wagner, formerly of the Lions. Wagner’s PFF grades from 2016 to 2018 were as follows: 74.0, 75.2 and 71.4. Last year, his play deteriorated a lot and he was tagged with a 59.0 grade. He finished as the #61 tackle among 81 guys.
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I like the fact that the team is returning four out of five guys, but replacing Bulaga with Wagner has to be viewed as a downgrade.
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2020 VS 2019 OFFENSE
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The Packers offense finished in the middle of the pack in points scored per game. Barring major injuries, I expect about the same production in 2020.
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The QB and RB situations remain the same.
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Adding Funchess is not a huge move, but it won’t hurt. The team clearly needs someone to step up opposite of Davante Adams. At tight end, losing Jimmy Graham means close to nothing since he was so ineffective. Sternberger might bring a nice contribution, but we can hardly expect him to be a game-breaker.
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Finally, the OL will take a dip with the loss of Bulaga. I don’t believe Rick Wagner can do better than him.
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All in all, I view the additions/departures as a slight negative for Green Bay, but having so many starters returning to the lineup for a second straight season is always a good thing in the NFL. For these reasons, I expect a similar output as 2019 from this unit.
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Final call (2020 vs 2019): Stable
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3. Defensive Position-by-Position Breakdown

3.1 Defensive Linemen (DLs)
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Kenny Clark had a fantastic season! He is one of the best interior rushers in the NFL. He recorded six sacks for the second straight year, and PFF ranked him as the 13th-best interior linemen out of 114 qualifiers.
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The same nice comments cannot be made about Dean Lowry. He had the worst season of his four-year career as a pro. He did not post a single sack and wasn’t great against the run either.
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Reserve Tyler Lancaster is only there to provide some depth. He isn’t particularly good in any aspect of the game.
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The team did not make any move regarding this position during the offseason.
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3.2 Defensive Ends (DEs) / Edge Rushers (ED)
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During the last offseason, the Packers acquired two Smiths: Za’Darius and Preston. They burst onto the scene and got 13.5 and 12 sacks, respectively.
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Obviously, both received high marks for their pass rushing abilities, but Preston finished as an average linebacker overall because of mediocre run defense and poor coverage.
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Kyler Fackrell was a huge disappointment in 2019. After racking up 10.5 sacks in 2018, he only got one in 2019! He signed a one-year deal with the Giants.
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First-round pick Rashan Gary wasn’t necessarily impressive during his rookie season. He played 23% of the snaps, while obtaining two sacks but very pedestrian marks from PFF (an overall 55.8 grade, which is near the bottom among edge defenders).
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3.3 Linebackers (LBs)
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Green Bay lost its leader in tackles from the past three years, Blake Martinez. After starting 61 of the last 64 Packers games, Martinez decided to join the New York Giants. He had the second-most tackles in the league last year, but don’t be misled by that number. Martinez still finished slight below-average (52nd out of 89 LBs) because of poor play against the run.
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The Packers also lost some depth at the position when B.J. Goodson left for Cleveland.
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Green Bay picked up a linebacker from the Browns roster: Christian Kirksey. He was picked in the 3rd round of the 2014 before being involved in all 16 games from his first four seasons in the NFL. However, he has been plagued with injuries over the most recent two years; he played 7 games in 2018 and only 2 games in 2019.
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He is also capable of racking up tackles, as shown by his 2016 and 2017 seasons where he obtained 146 and 138. His PFF grades during his first four seasons varied between 61.9 and 69.3. Just to give you a rough idea, a 65.0 rating would have been good for 29th place out of 89 LBs.
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3.4 Cornerbacks (CBs)
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Jaire Alexander has done the job as the #1 corner. He has obtained 72.4 and 71.2 marks from PFF during his first two seasons, which is well-above average. He’s so-so defending the run, but his coverage skills are very good.
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The number two corner, Kevin King had five interceptions last year after getting just one over his first two years as a pro. He did show some improvement after two rocky years. He finished 2019 as a middle-of-the-pack corner.
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Tramon Williams played 74% of the snaps and had a surprisingly good season despite his age. He will be 37 when the 2020 season begins. He is currently a free agent and it remains to be seen if the Packers bring him back or not.
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In summary, Alexander and King are both pretty young and could still be improving, but Tramon Williams provided quality play and it’s uncertain if someone else can pick up the slack.
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3.5 Safeties (S)
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Adrian Amos and Darnell Savage were the top two guys here.
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Along with Za’Darius and Preston Smith, the Adrian Amos was another excellent signing by the Packers during the 2019 offseason. Amos had been a reliable guy in Chicago for four seasons, and he continued to excel in the frozen tundra.
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After being selected as the #21 overall pick in the 2019 draft, Darnell Savage did show some flashes as a rookie last year. He finished as the #47 safety among 87 qualifiers, which is very satisfying for a rookie. He earned nice marks in coverage (77.4), but horrible ones against the run (37.7).
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Will Redmond will be back as the number three safety. He’s not starter material for sure.
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2020 VS 2019 DEFENSE
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Most of the starters are returning in 2020. That’s the good news.
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The team lost their leader in tackles, Blake Martinez, as well as pass rusher Kyler Fackrell and CB Tramon Williams.
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The only acquisition worth of note is Christian Kirksey. Him not having played very much during the last two seasons brings some question marks.
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The Packers defense struggled against the run last year, and there’s no reason to believe that will change in 2020. Green Bay still finished 9th in points allowed, which was a very acceptable result.
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Unfortunately, a decrease in effectiveness is expected and I predict this unit will end 2020 as a middle-of-pack defense (12th – 19th in points allowed).
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Final call (2020 vs 2019): Small downgrade
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4. Regular Season Wins

According to sportsbooks, the Green Bay Packers are expected to win 9 games this season. Should we bet the “over” or the “under”?
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Here is the methodology I used in order to answer this vital question:

• Use BetOnline.ag’s point spreads on all 256 regular season games.
• Convert those point spreads into win probabilities.
• Simulate each of the 256 games, according to those win probabilities, via the R statistical software.
• Repeat the previous step one million times (you get 1M simulated seasons).
• Count the proportion of seasons where the Packers won more or less than 9 games.

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Here are the results (excluding the simulated years where the Pack won exactly 9 games, since in those cases your bet would have tied):
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	Estimated Probability	Sportsbook	Odds	ROI
OVER 9 WINS	51.4%	bwin	+115	+10.5%
UNDER 9 WINS	48.6%	Heritage Sports	+100	-2.8%

Tip: Bet OVER 9 wins
Return On Investment (ROI): +10.5%
Rank: 25th-highest ROI out of 32 teams
Minimum odds required to bet (i.e. ROI = 0%): -106
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Here are BetOnline’s point spreads for the Packers’ 16 regular season games:
HOME: -6 vs ATL, -10 vs CAR, -4.5 vs CHI, -6.5 vs DET, -11.5 vs JAX, -3 vs MIN, -2.5 vs PHI, -3.5 vs TEN.
ROAD: 0 @ CHI, -2 @ DET, 0 @ HOU, +2.5 @ IND, +3 @ MIN, +5.5 @ NO, +6.5 @ SF, +2.5 @ TB.
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Note: The “Best odds” from the table above were obtained after looking at 13 well-known online sportsbooks on May 18th, 2020.
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TOMORROW: I'll talk about the team whose ROI is the 24th-highest in the league, the Pittsburgh Steelers!
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Did you like this write-up? If so, comment below! I'd like to know YOUR opinion on what to expect from the Packers' 2020 season!
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Professor MJ

No winner, tight game.
Total score under 150 Hawkins anytime goal scorer Guthrie 15+ disposals Dangerfield 15+ disposals Pendlebury 15+ disposals Tribet either team by 39 or less
Odds are easily over @2.20+ depending on bookie
This is my first tip, sorry I’m a bit busy so it’s late, game starts in 10 just put in a dollar to see if u can trust me :$
UPDATE: pure bad luck. 6 leg multi, lost by 2 legs to one of the most shocking, unlucky and unexpected results of the year. It’s so bad that if you put a bet on it to happen, you’d get $10,000 for winning.
First leg lost: Either team by 39 points or less.
Absolute, shocking, game. Just imagine lakers winning by 50 points today, could you imagine that? The game was predicted to be about 60/40, with most pros predicting Geelong by absolutely no more than 20 points. Most predicted around 8 points, they won by 68, in what was predicted to be one of the tightest games of the year! 68 points! That’s like an even match up NFL game, where the favourite comes out of no where and win by 45!
Second leg loss: Pendlebury 15+ disposals, he had just 14... L
Not only did Collingwood somehow lose by almost the biggest margin of the year as a top team, but as the highest team in possessions, they have just pulled off the LOWEST possession game in the whole year, consisting of over 135 total games. The collected a pathetic 200 possessions, on average they collect 327 which is ironically the highest out of 16 teams, even the worse teams easily average 260+. Because of such a EXTREMELY RARE shit performance by the whole team of 24 players, Pendlebury got just 14 possessions, basically had to do it on his own, everyone else did nothing. Geelong had 357 disposals, besting Collingwood by 157. Even in such a shit game Pendlebury had 14, would be easily had 15 if maybe Collingwood decided to not play the lowest possession game of a 130 game+ season.
I would say this is like the worst luck I’ve had in ages.

1. Introduction

From 2013 to 2015, the Cardinals won at least 10 games in each of those seasons. They followed up with a couple of years where they finished close to a .500 record. Things got even worse in the past two seasons, during which the franchise compiled an 8-23-1 record.
Now in year #2 of head coach Kliff Kingsbury and QB Kyler Murray, it’s time for Arizona to make a leap forward.

2. Regular Season Wins

According to sportsbooks, the Arizona Cardinals are expected to win 7 games this season. Should we bet the “over” or the “under”?
Here is the methodology I used in order to answer this vital question:

• Use BetOnline.ag’s point spreads on all 256 regular season games.
• Convert those point spreads into win probabilities.
• Simulate each of the 256 games, according to those win probabilities, via the R statistical software.
• Repeat the previous step one million times (you get 1M simulated seasons).
• Count the proportion of seasons where the Cards won more or less than 7 games.

Here are the results (excluding simulated seasons where they won exactly 7 games, in which case the bet ties):
​

	Estimated prob.	Sportsbook	Odds	ROI
OVER 7 wins	53.1%	10Bet	-110	+1.4%
UNDER 7 wins	46.9%	William Hill	+110	-1.5%

​

• Tip: Bet OVER 7 wins
• Return On Investment (ROI): +1.4%
• Rank: 32nd-highest ROI out of 32 teams
• Minimum odds required to bet (i.e. ROI = 0%): -113 (i.e. 1.88 in decimal format)

Note: The “Best odds” from the table above were obtained after looking at 13 well-known online sportsbooks on May 18th, 2020.

3. Offensive Position-by-Position Breakdown

3.1 Quarterbacks (QBs)

Kyler Murray had a very successful rookie campaign as Arizona’s new franchise quarterback.
Despite a suspect surrounding cast, he posted very respectable numbers with 3,722 passing yards, 20 TDs and 12 interceptions. He was also dangerous as a runner, as shown by his 544 rushing yards.
Murray was the victim of 48 sacks, but he was hard to catch. Indeed, he finished in 2nd place in terms of average time from snap-to-sack among all QBs in the NFL.
Now with one full year of experience under his belt, you can expect Murray to take a nice leap and improve his game even more in 2020.
Brett Hundley will once again back up Murray this season. The Cards must hope they won’t need him because he has never shown he could lead a team to success. The former Packer is clearly no more than a #2 QB in this league.

3.2 Running Backs (RBs)

The Cards got a nice bargain last year by trading a sixth-round pick in exchange for Kenyan Drake. He was nothing short of spectacular in his eight appearances in the desert by racking up 643 rushing yards over eight games. He also scored eight touchdowns during that short period.
During the offseason, the Cards re-signed him to a one-year, $8.5 million contract. The team also traded David Johnson to Houston, which clearly puts Drake as the starter.
Chase Edmonds will be the main backup runner. He showed some flashes with a nice 5.1 yards per rush average. The third-year pro is good insurance in case Drake gets hurt.

3.3 Wide Receivers (WRs)

Kyler Murray probably popped a bottle of champagne when he heard about the acquisition of stud wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins from the Texans.
Losing David Johnson in the trade isn’t that big of a deal for the Cards, who already had good depth at the running back position. However, acquiring a big-time WR like Hopkins is HUGE!
Hopkins has played either 15 or 16 games in each of his first seven years in the NFL. He has averaged 1,229 receiving yards and 7.7 TDs during that time span.
He consistently ranks among the top receivers year in and year out. In 2019, he finished with an 87.8 grade from PFF, which had him ranked as the 5th best WR.
Unbelievable: Larry Fitzgerald is coming back for a 17th season! He did better than expected last season by catching 75 passes and finishing 53rd out of 122 qualified wide receivers in the league based on PFF.
Fitzgerald claimed he loved the culture under new head coach Kliff Kingsbury and he wants to help the team both as a player and as a mentor for the younger guys.
Christian Kirk, a former second-round pick in the 2018 draft, had an okay year. His 62.5 grade by PFF had him ranked as the #91 WR (out of 122). With Hopkins drawing a lot of attention from opposing defenses, Kirk must make a leap in 2020. It remains to be seen if he can do it or not.
Arizona lost some depth at the position after seeing Damiere Byrd leave for New England, while Pharoh Cooper signed with Carolina. It’s not a huge blow to the team, but worth mentioning.

3.4 Tight Ends (TEs)

A young QB like Kyler Murray would certainly welcome some help at the tight end position, but it doesn’t look like it’s going to happen.
The top target last year was Charles Clay. He only caught 18 passes and is now a free agent.
All signs point toward Maxx Williams assuming the number one role. You’ll be surprised to hear he ranked as the 7th best tight end in the league according to PFF. His nice 79.1 grade was obtained via outstanding run and pass blocking.
In summary, the team is pretty thin at this position.

3.5 Offensive Line (OL)

One of the team’s biggest weaknesses in 2019 was certainly its offensive line. They allowed the 5th highest number of sacks a year ago, despite Murray being a mobile quarterback.
The only guy who finished above average based on PFF rankings was Justin Pugh (22nd out of 81 among guards). The other four starters were either average or quite bad.
The bad news? The team has not addressed the position in free agency. They did select Josh Jones in the third round of this year’s draft, though. He has a high chance of becoming the team’s starting right guard right away, despite many experts calling him a developmental project who needs work.
I can’t believe D.J. Humphries is going to be the third-highest paid left tackle in the league after signing a hefty contract this offseason. His paycheck is clearly not in line with his production on the field. In five years, he has played 43 games and missed 37 due to numerous injuries. He finally played through a full 16-game season last year, but he PFF gave him the 47th-best grade out of 81 tackles.

2020 VS 2019 OFFENSE

Overall, I expect a nice progression from this unit. Kyler Murray is clearly more likely to improve than to regress based on his young age. The running back position is set. The receiving corps got a gigantic boost with the addition of DeAndre Hopkins.
The tight end and offensive line positions remain problematic. However, if you compare with last year, it can’t get much worse. Building the line should be one of the top priorities for Arizona in the upcoming years.
Final call (2020 vs 2019):
Big downgrade-Moderate downgrade-Small downgrade-Stable-Small upgrade-Moderate upgrade-Big upgrade

4. Defensive Position-by-Position Breakdown

4.1 Defensive Linemen (DLs)

This was not a position of strength for Arizona last year. Out of 114 DLs, here’s the final PFF ranking of the four guys who got the most playing time: Corey Peters 65th, Rodney Gunter 61st, Zach Kerr 42nd and Jonathan Bullard 94th. Ouch.
Now, Gunter and Kerr are both gone. Meanwhile, the team acquired Jordan Phillips from the Bills. He probably won’t be a savior as he finished in 104th place.

4.2 Defensive Ends (DEs) / Edge Rushers (ED)

Chandler Jones had an exceptional years with 19 sacks! Only Shaquil Barrett from the Bucs recorded more sacks.
Outside of Jones, Terrell Suggs played 13 games before being released by the Cards. He still managed to record 5.5 sacks.
Cassius Marsh played 38% of the defensive snaps and finished 70th out of 107 edge defenders. He signed with the Jaguars during the offseason.
In order to compensate for those losses, Arizona signed Devon Kennard, formerly of the Detroit Lions. He played 82% of the snaps in Detroit and finished 44th (out of 107) at the position. He obtained 7 sacks last year (7 more the year before).

4.3 Linebackers (LBs)

Jordan Hicks was a tackling machine with 150; only Bobby Wagner (Seattle) and Blake Martinez (Green Bay) had more in 2019.
However, Hicks didn’t grade particularly well. He finished 43rd out of 89 linebackers.
Haason Reddick and Joe Walker both finished in the bottom: 86th and 79th. Walker left for San Francisco, which is not a big loss.
Arizona signed De’Vondre Campbell who played 89% of the snaps with the Falcons. Can he improve the linebacker play in 2020? I doubt it. His poor 50.1 grade gave him the 70th rank. Here are his grades the previous three seasons: 57.4, 69.1 and 55.7. He is a durable guy, but far from a great player.
DC Vance Joseph declared #8 overall pick Isaiah Simmons would primarily play at linebacker. Simmons was super versatile in college, playing many positions. He will provide good coverage against TEs and pass-catching RBs, while also defending the run efficiently. He clearly has Pro Bowl talent.

4.4 Cornerbacks (CBs)

Patrick Peterson is clearly the leader of this group. He was having a decent season, and was brilliant in the final few games. He finished as the number 39 cornerback out of 112 guys. He missed the first six games of the season because of a suspension.
There is not much depth behind Peterson, though. Byron Murphy played 98% of the snaps, but finished with an awful 48.8 grade. The 2019 second-round pick will need to elevate his game A LOT this season.

4.5 Safeties (S)

Budda Baker and Jalen Thompson provide an adequate duo of safeties. These two guys are still young and we can expect some improvement in 2020. They finished last year as #28 and #57 out of 87 qualified safeties. Baker accumulated 147 tackles, 4th in the NFL.

2020 VS 2019 DEFENSE

No major changes for this unit. Given they’ve allowed the 5th highest number of points last year, that’s not good news.
The lone position where the Cards have improved this offseason is linebacker because of the acquisition of Isaiah Simmons via the draft and De’Vondre Campbell as a free agent from Atlanta.
Or perhaps the couple of young safeties can take a leap? Maybe, maybe not. It may be wishful thinking.
To summarize, the team added Jordan Phillips, Devon Kennard, Isaiah Simmons and De’Vondre Campbell. They lost Rodney Gunter, Zach Kerr, Terrell Suggs, Cassius Marsh and Joe Walker. To me, those changes offset. Perhaps it will turn out to be a small upgrade.
Final call (2020 vs 2019):
Big downgrade-Moderate downgrade-Small downgrade-Stable-Small upgrade-Moderate upgrade-Big upgrade
Thanks for reading!
Professor MJ

1. Introduction

Upon hiring Pete Carroll as their new head coach back in 2010, the Seahawks had consecutive 7-9 seasons. Since then, the franchise has enjoyed eight winning seasons in a row, compiling an impressive 86-41-1 record (a 67.6% winning percentage).
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Last year, Seattle stayed toe to toe with the 49ers atop the NFC West division by winning 10 of the first 12 games. However, the Seahawks lost three of their final four contests, including the season finale against the Niners that was lost by a matter of inches on fourth and goal.
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The Seahawks opened the playoffs by traveling to Philadelphia. They took advantage of an early injury to QB Carson Wentz to take the game by a 17-to-9 score.
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Seattle’s next stop was at Lambeau Field to face Aaron Rodgers’ squad. The Hawks almost rallied from a 21-to-3 deficit at halftime, but were defeated 28-23.
​

2. Offensive Position-by-Position Breakdown

2.1 Quarterbacks (QBs)
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Russell Wilson is just a phenomenal quarterback. There are so many good things that could be said about him.
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Before diving into the numbers, here’s a stunning fact: he hasn’t missed a single game over his entire 8-year career. That’s incredible considering the number of hits he’s taken and given that he rushes about 90 times per season.
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If not for Lamar Jackson’s heroics, Wilson might have won the MVP honor. He had his second-highest completion percentage (66.1%) and passing yards (4,110) of his career. His 31:5 TD:INT mark was exceptional.
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All of the numbers above are great, but what makes them even more impressive is Wilson didn’t have a top-10 supporting cast. Keep in mind that he had just lost perhaps his top target, Doug Baldwin, who had decided to hang up his cleats at 31 years old. Wilson can clearly embrace the role of carrying a team on his shoulders.
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The backup QB job is still up in the air. Geno Smith has yet to be re-signed, but it’s not impossible that he comes back.
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2.2 Running Backs (RBs)
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Chris Carson has now rushed for over 1,000 yards in each of the past two seasons, while reaching the end zone nine times in each of those years. His career yards-per-rush average of 4.5 is very respectable as well.
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Carson suffered a pretty significant hip injury in the season finale. He avoided surgery during the offseason, but is questionable for training camp.
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The second leading rusher in 2019, Rashaad Penny, also had a severe late-season injury. He went down with a brutal torn ACL and he seems unlikely to be ready in time for Week #1. The number 28 overall pick from the 2018 draft rushed for just 370 yards behind Carson last year, but he improved his yards-per-rush average from 4.9 in 2018 up to 5.7 last year.
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Considering both Carson and Penny are nicked up, can Travis Homer take advantage? Last year’s sixth-round rookie didn’t do much in 2019. He had touched the ball just three times through the first 15 weeks of the season. He had to step in when the injury bug hit Seattle’s backfield. It’s hard to draw any conclusions from his 18-114-0 rushing stat line.
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2.3 Wide Receivers (WRs)
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Tyler Lockett is a very reliable guy. His worst career season has been 41 receptions for 597 yards. Last season he set career-best in receptions (82) and receiving yards (1,057), while also hauling in 8 TD passes.
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Much like his signal caller, Lockett is very durable. He has missed just one game in five years.
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Rookie D.K. Metcalf stepped up in a nice way to grab the number two role. His 58-900-7 receiving line was a resounding success. He has a great mix of size and speed. He set a new league record with 160 receiving yards as a rookie in a playoff game.
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The Patriots finally pulled the plug on the Phillip Dorsett experiment. He packed his bags for Seattle where he’ll be looking to fill a role as a deep threat. He couldn’t get going in New England despite a very thin receiving corps and having Tom Brady throwing the ball his way. It does not bode well for him.
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David Moore had the third-most catches among Seattle WRs last year, but 17 receptions isn’t something to get overly excited about. He can be an occasional deep threat, but he makes bad mistakes at times. As a former seventh-rounder, there is not much upside with him.
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2.4 Tight Ends (TEs)
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Greg Olsen decided to hold off his project to call games on television for at least another year. He signed a $7 million one-year deal to join the Seahawks. He’s clearly not the once-dominant tight end he used to be, but the 35-year-old still caught 52 passes 597 yards despite catching passes from Kyle Allen and Will Grier.
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Jacob Hollister led the position in receptions last year with 41, but that’s unlikely to happen again in 2020. He did his best, but keep in mind he was an undrafted guy who had caught just eight passes in two years. He benefited from Will Dissly’s injury and with the lucrative contract awarded to Olsen, it seems obvious that Hollister will get his playing time cut out.
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Will Dissly got drafted in the 4th round in 2018. He missed most of his rookie season due to a torn right patellar tendon. This time, he tore his left Achilles’ during the sixth game of the 2019 regular season after a promising start. His athletic abilities could be more limited after sustaining a major injury to both legs.
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As for Luke Willson, he will be primarily used as a blocking tight end.
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2.5 Offensive Line (OL)
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Right tackle Germain Ifedi left for Chicago during the offseason, but that’s fine from Seattle’s perspective. The 2016 first-round pick has been a bust and clearly struggled throughout his career. The team will replace him with Brandon Shell, formerly of the Jets. He is a small upgrade, but far from a big-time acquisition.
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Left tackle Duane Brown continues to provide quality play on Russell Wilson’s blindside, but you have to wonder how much longer he can do the job. Brown will be entering his age-35 campaign. He finished as the 23rd-best tackle out of 81 qualifiers last year, which is a nice accomplishment for a player in his mid-thirties.
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The team lost some depth following the departure of their #3 tackle, George Fant, to the Jets. He wasn’t great, but he still represented a good insurance policy.
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Center Justin Britt had started either 15 or 16 games in each of his first five seasons in the NFL. His lucky streak ended on a running play in Week #8 where he tore his ACL and missed the remainder of the year. His play has been uneven, and he graded out as a below-average center. The team decided to release him during the offseason.
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Backup center Joey Hunt did even worse than Britt when called upon to fill in as the starter. He’s not a long-term solution for sure, but he will compete for the starting gig with B.J. Finney, who was complete dust when he stepped on the field for the Steelers last year.
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Guards Mike Iupati and D.J. Fluker received almost identical marks from PFF last year: 60.3 and 59.1 (46th and 48th out of 81 guards).
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Iupati is a 10-year veteran whose play has deteriorated since 2017 when injuries started to plague him. As for Fluker, he’s also a player in decline. His first 3-4 years were good, but the last three not so much. Seattle released him and he found a new home two days later in Baltimore.
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One potential candidate to replace Fluker is third-round rookie Damien Lewis. He is a great fit for Seattle’s run-oriented offense since he’s great in run blocking; he was seen throwing defenders on the ground many times. However, he’s not nearly as good in pass protection.
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Perhaps Ethan Pocic can take advantage of his last shot to play in the NFL. After being picked in the second round of the 2017 draft, he has been bad in all three of his pro years.
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2020 VS 2019 OFFENSE
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Russell Wilson, Chris Carson, Rashaad Penny, Tyler Lockett, D.K. Metcalf and Jacob Hollister are all back for the Seahawks this year.
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Add the return of TE Will Dissly from an injury, along with the acquisitions of Greg Olsen and Phillip Dorsett and you have a recipe for another successful season on offense, right?
​
A major potential problem stems from the offensive line. Replacing Ifedi for Shell is fine. However, Duane Brown and Mike Iupati are getting older (35 and 32 years old, respectively) and the team lost some depth following Fant’s departure to New York. There are big question marks at center and right guard following the release of Britt and Fluker without having clear-cut solutions to replace them.
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Russell Wilson has always been great at dealing with suspect offensive lines, but there’s a limit to what he can do. Also, the team’s success relies on the running game quite a bit, so you need guys that will open up holes.
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Don’t forget about Carson and Penny both coming back from significant injuries. Also, Russell Wilson is coming off an amazing season in which PFF rated him as the best QB in the league. As much as I love Wilson, it will be difficult to replicate that kind of success.
​
Seattle’s offense posted the 9th-most points in 2019. For the reasons stated above, I envision a slight downgrade in 2020.
​
Final call (2020 vs 2019): Small downgrade
​

3. Defensive Position-by-Position Breakdown

3.1 Defensive Linemen (DLs)
​
The interior of the defensive line featured a mix of Quinton Jefferson, Poona Ford, Jarran Reed and Al Woods.
​
Let’s kick off the analysis with the two guys that left via free agency. Jefferson got drafted in the 5th round and had a slow start to his career. However, he showed nice improvement in each of the past two seasons, even reaching the #27 spot out of 114 DLs based on PFF grades. Seeing him leave for Buffalo wasn’t good news.
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Al Woods also jumped off the ship to sign with the Jaguars. He won’t be missed as much as Jefferson, although he had a respectable 2019 season. He was more of a run-stuffer who turned 33 years old.
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Poona Ford showed promise in limited time as an undrafted rookie in 2018, especially defending the run. He was an “okay” player last year and might see the field more often in the upcoming season.
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Jarran Reed seemed like an up-and-coming star after generating 10.5 sacks in 2018. However, the 2016 second-round pick had a season to forget both on and off the field last year. He was slapped with a six-game suspension for domestic violence before having an ordinary season that included just two sacks.
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He just signed a very lucrative contract, so the team is banking on him to rebound to his 2018 form. The talent is there for sure. Let’s see if he can put it together this year.
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3.2 Defensive Ends (DEs) / Edge Rushers (ED)
​
The Seahawks were pretty bad last year rushing the passer. They had the second-fewest sacks in the league.
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The team’s leader in sacks was Rasheem Green with only 4! The third-round pick from the 2018 draft wasn’t super effective, as shown by his 92nd rank out of 107 edge defenders in the NFL. There’s not much hope he will become a game-changer.
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The only guy receiving good grades was Jadeveon Clowney. He’s known for his pass rushing abilities, but he’s an underrated run stuffer. He had his lowest sack output in five years, but he is bound to get rack up more in 2020. The bad news is he left via free agency.
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Ezekiel Ansah was a major bust in his first year as a Seahawk. After averaging 8 sacks per year over his first six seasons, he recorded just 2.5 last year. He was also a liability defending the run. An awful year across the board. Now 31 years old, he has yet to sign with any team.
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As for Branden Jackson, he is a replacement-level player. He has 3.5 sacks in four years.
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The team is attempting to boost the position via a couple of free agent acquisitions: Bruce Irvin and Benson Mayowa.
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Irvin is a nice addition. He is reuniting with the team that selected him in the first round of the 2012 draft. He has 52 career sacks in eight seasons, which amounts to 6.5 on average per year. Not bad!
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It’s harder to figure out what to anticipate from Mayowa. He’s playing for a new team for the 5th time in 7 years. After posting just two sacks in his first three seasons, he now has 18 over the last four years. He is coming off a career year in Oakland with seven sacks and three forced fumbles. He is likely to be used as a rotational pass rusher.
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Why not attempt to boost a position that underwhelmed last year by adding one more piece through the draft? That’s what the Seahawks did when taking Darrell Taylor in the second round. Based on expert evaluations, he has the toolbox necessary to succeed, but he needs quite a bit of development.
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3.3 Linebackers (LBs)
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Bobby Wagner led the NFL with 159 tackles last year. He’s never had less than 104 tackles in a season (and that was over 11 games). I think it’s fair to call him a tackling machine.
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During his eight-year stint in the NFL, Wagner also has 19.5 sacks, 10 interceptions and five forced fumbles. He can do it all! He will be playing his age-30 campaign.
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K.J. Wright had a subpar year. He received his lowest PFF grades of his nine-year career, but still finished in the middle of the pack (46th out of 89 LBs). He missed 11 games in 2018 with lingering knee issues, so you have to wonder if that still affects him.
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Mychal Kendricks is gone after spending two uneven seasons in Seattle. He tore is ACL in the season finale and he pleaded guilty to securities fraud accusations.
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The Seahawks picked a guy that is likely to play a rotational role in 2020: Jordyn Brooks. Some experts thought he was a reach at the 27th overall selection. He is good chasing running backs and scrambling QBs (he can literally fly and won’t miss many tackles), but he is far from a finished product in coverage.
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3.4 Cornerbacks (CBs)
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After two run-of-the-mill seasons, Shaquill Griffin flipped the switch and performed admirably well last year. His coverage skills improved dramatically and he finished at the #10 spot out of 112 corners in the NFL based on PFF rankings. Can the 2017 third-round pick keep it up?
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Tre Flowers received awful marks from PFF after getting burned repeatedly last year. He finished among the worst CBs in the league.
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The team felt a need to upgrade the position, and they did so in a big way. Seattle signed Quinton Dunbar, formerly of the Redskins. He is coming off a career year where he picked off four passes and graded as the second-best corner in the NFL.
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Still, let’s not get exhilarated too much. Dunbar is an undrafted guy that had four decent, yet unspectacular, seasons. He hasn’t proved he can be a top starter yet, but having him over Flowers is definitely an upgrade!
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3.5 Safeties (S)
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Quandre Diggs was acquired from the Lions last year to bolster Seattle’s secondary. He did a great job with three picks in just five games! He was a nice get and an upgrade over Tedric Thompson (who is now off the team).
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The other starting safety is Bradley McDougald. He’s been fairly solid in each of his six seasons in the NFL. He is not a game changer, however.
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2020 VS 2019 DEFENSE
​
Let’s evaluate how the 2020 Seattle defense should fare compared to the 2019 unit.
​
On the interior of the line, we detect a downgrade following the departure of Quinton Jefferson, and to a lesser degree Al Woods. Granted, there is hope that Jarran Reed might bounce back from his super disappointing 2019 season.
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At edge, Clowney and Ansah are out, while Bruce Irvin and Benson Mayowa are in. What is the net outcome from those moves? I’ll go with a slight loss, in part because Clowney is likely to improve upon his 2019 sack total and he was great against the run.
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At linebacker, Wagner and Wright aren’t young fellows anymore, but they’re not old either. Wright had a subpar year and he certainly has a shot to do better in 2020. However, losing Mychal Kendricks isn’t good news (albeit not a devastating blow either!). We’ll see if rookie Jordyn Brooks can fill his shoes.
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Plugging Quinton Dunbar opposite Shaquill Griffin is an upgrade for sure since Tre Flowers struggled mightily last year.
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At safety, we know what to expect from McDougald: respectable play. Now, having Diggs for a full season instead of Tedric Thompson is a vast improvement.
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For all of those reasons, I am pegging Seattle’s defense to stay around the same level as 2019. They finished 22nd in points allowed last year and I expect them to secure a similar spot in 2020.
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Final call (2020 vs 2019): Stable
​

4. Regular Season Wins

According to sportsbooks, the Seahawks are expected to win 9.5 games this season. Should we bet the “over” or the “under”?
​
Here is the methodology I used in order to answer this vital question:

• Use BetOnline.ag’s point spreads on all 256 regular season games.
• Convert those point spreads into win probabilities.
• Simulate each of the 256 games, according to those win probabilities, via the R statistical software.
• Repeat the previous step one million times (you get 1M simulated seasons).
• Count the proportion of seasons where the Seahawks won more or less than 9.5 games.

​
Here are the results:
​

	Estimated Probability	Sportsbook	Odds	ROI
OVER 9.5 WINS	49.4%	William Hill	+130	+13.6%
UNDER 9.5 WINS	50.6%	Pinnacle	-118	-6.5%

Tip: Bet OVER 9.5 wins
Return On Investment (ROI): +13.6%
Rank: 21st-highest ROI out of 32 teams
Minimum odds required to bet (i.e. ROI = 0%): +102
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Here are BetOnline’s point spreads for the Seahawks’ 16 regular season games:
HOME: -7.5 vs ARI, -2.5 vs DAL, -3.5 vs LAR, -3 vs MIN, -4.5 vs NE, -9 vs NYG, -8.5 vs NYJ, 0 vs SF.
ROAD: -2.5 @ ARI, -1.5 @ ATL, +2.5 @ BUF, +1.5 @ LAR, -4 @ MIA, +2 @ PHI, +6.5 @ SF, -6 @ WAS.
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Note: The “Best odds” from the table above were obtained after looking at 13 well-known online sportsbooks on May 18th, 2020.
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Tomorrow, we're previewing the Indianapolis Colts 2020 season! Will they win oveunder 8.5 games?
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Cheers!
​
Professor MJ

1. Introduction

The 2019 season had mitigated success for the Vikings. They secured the #6 seed in the NFC before pulling a huge upset win in overtime in New Orleans. The offense completely stalled the following week in San Francisco, though.
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The franchise has not gone through a losing season in five years. Head coach Mike Zimmer has really done a good job.
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Can the team take a forward leap and make it further into the playoffs? The team has not made it to the Super Bowl since 1976.
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2. Offensive Position-by-Position Breakdown

2.1 Quarterbacks (QBs)
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Kirk Cousins has received more criticism than praise since signing a huge contract with the Vikings a couple of years ago. Yet, the team posted an 18-13-1 record and Cousins has thrown 56 TD passes versus 16 interceptions. His completion rate has been excellent over those two years: 69.7% (among the best of his career).
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The reprimand concerned more the lack of playoff wins than the level of play itself. He cleared a hurdle by leading his team to a big playoff upset in New Orleans last season, thanks to a 4-year TD pass to Kyle Rudolph in overtime.
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However, he followed it up with a horrific performance in San Francisco. Don’t be misled by his 21-of-29 passes completed during the game. Minnesota flirted with the postseason record for fewest first downs in a game; they only got 7 and totaled 147 yards of offense.
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Still, based on PFF grades, 2019 was Cousins’ best career season. He ranked as the #6 QB in the league with an 84.1 mark.
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Sean Mannion will once again back up Cousins. He’s clearly not the best #2 quarterback in the league. Cousins has been extremely durable throughout his career, and the Vikes hope it stays that way.
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2.2 Running Backs (RBs)
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In my 2019 NFC North preview, I mentioned how I believed Dalvin Cook was one of the most underrated players in the league. He had only rushed for 354 and 615 yards in his first two seasons, but he had passed my eye test. I knew that, barring injuries, he would breakout as one of the top backs in the league.
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He did enjoy a nice 2020 season with 1,135 rushing yards and 519 receiving yards, while racking up 13 touchdowns.
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Two things raise some concerns about him, though. First, his lengthy injury history. He seems to get nicked up often.
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Secondly, his play tailed off quite a bit towards the end of the season. During the first eight games of the season, he rushed 156 times for 823 yards, which was good for a lofty 5.3 average. However, over his final six meetings (including the playoffs) he carried the ball 84 times for 256 yards, a meager 3.0 average.
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After being selected in the 3rd round of the draft out of Boise State, Alexander Mattison showed promise in his first year as a pro. He had 100 rushing attempts for 462 yards, a nice 4.6 yards-per-carry average. It will be interesting to see if he can carry the load if Cook goes down.
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2.3 Wide Receivers (WRs)
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The Vikings had one of the most talented WR duo in Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs. They caught 113 and 102 passes, respectively, during the 2018 season. Those figures regressed to 30 and 63 last year. Thielen only played 10 games, but he was still on pace for just 48 receptions.
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What was the problem? In 2018, Minnesota had the 6th-highest number of passing attempts. In 2019, that rank dropped to 30th !
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That being said, the team traded Diggs to Buffalo. He expressed frustration with Cousins and they didn’t seem to be on the same page.
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In order to compensate for that loss, GM Rick Spielman signed Tajae Sharpe, formerly of the Titans. He will fight for the #2 role opposite Thielen. The former fifth-rounder posted decent numbers in his first three years in the league. He used to be a starter, but his playing time got cut after Tennessee drafted A.J. Brown and signed Adam Humphries. Sharpe seems to be destined to be a #2 or #3 receiver in the NFL.
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The team also has high hopes for first-round rookie Justin Jefferson. He was very productive at LSU and he ranked second in 15+ yard receptions over the last two seasons (only Jerry Jeudy beat him). He wasn’t spectacular as an outside target, but he had a monster season playing in the slot last year. He’s great with contested catches and has a good shot to become an immediate starter.
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Bisi Johnson took advantage of Chad Beebe’s injury to grab the number three role last year. The 7th round rookie posted a 31-294-3 stat line, which was “okay”, but he seems like a long shot to become a true starter.
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The team finally pulled the plug on the failed Laquon Treadwell experiment. He’s been nothing short of a disappointment since being the #23 overall pick in the 2016 draft. He signed a contract with the Falcons in the offseason.
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2.4 Tight Ends (TEs)
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The Kyle Rudolph – Irv Smith combo is very solid.
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Both guys played all 16 games with Rudolph recording slightly better numbers. He hauled in 39 passes for 367 yards and 6 TDs, while Smith’s numbers were 36-311-2.
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Rudolph made some highlight reel catches, his most important one being the game-winning TD catch in overtime in New Orleans. Smith is expected to expand his role in the offense with one year of experience under his belt and Diggs off the team. He showed very nice potential despite the Vikings relying very often on the running game.
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2.5 Offensive Line (OL)
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This unit allowed the sixth-fewest sacks in the league, but that wasn’t necessarily a great accomplishment given the offense ran the ball so often.
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Overall, this is an average, or slightly above-average, offensive line. Here is a rundown of each starter’s PFF rankings:

• Garrett Bradbury, 30th out of 37 centers;
• Brian O’Neill, 33rd out of 81 tackles;
• Riley Reiff, 38th out of 81 tackles;
• Pat Elflein, 39th out of 81 guards;
• Josh Kline, 26th out of 81 guards.

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Bradbury and O’Neill were the youngest guys as first- and second-year players. It’s worth noting that O’Neill definitely improved the quality of his play from year one to year two.
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Riley Reiff was a candidate for release considering his big contract, which is not in sync with his on-field performance. He’s clearly not among the top left tackles in the league.
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After an atrocious 2018 season, Pat Elflein did better last year. He is in his mid-twenties and should remain an adequate starter (albeit, not a great one).
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Josh Kline was let go by the Vikings, possibly because of cap reasons and the fact he was now on the wrong side of 30. Still, this is a bit of a surprising move given the team’s lack of depth.
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2019 fourth-round pick Dru Samia or career journeyman Dakota Dozier will be fighting for Kline’s spot.
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The Vikings selected a late riser in the second round of this year’s draft: Ezra Cleveland. He played over 95% of the snaps in three years with Boise State. He is mobile and very athletic. He seems like Riley Reiff’s heir apparent (who seems likely to be released next offseason).
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2020 VS 2019 OFFENSE
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The starting lineup remains fairly intact with 9-of-11 starters returning.
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The QB, RB and TE positions should provide similar production in 2020.
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The WR position took a hit with the loss of Stefon Diggs, a very dangerous playmaker. He was among the best in contested catches. Acquiring a borderline starter like Tajae Sharpe won’t be enough to replace him. Let’s hope rookie Justin Jefferson can have an impact right away.
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On the offensive line, Bradbury and O’Neill may take a leap given their young age. However, Josh Kline leaving the team is hardly good news.
​
Accordingly, I expect Minnesota’s offense to fall a little bit.
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Offensive coordinator Kevin Stefanski left the team to take over as Cleveland’s head coach, but the system will remain the same under new OC Gary Kubiak. The latter oversaw the offense from the coaches box last year, so the transition shouldn’t be too difficult.
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Last year, the Vikings offense scored the eight-most points in the league, and I predict this year’s ranking to lie between the 10th and 16th spot.
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Final call (2020 vs 2019): Small downgrade
​

3. Defensive Position-by-Position Breakdown

3.1 Defensive Linemen (DLs)
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The best interior defender for the Vikings was clearly Linval Joseph. Unfortunately, the cash-strapped Vikings had to release him.
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A few days later, Minnesota signed Michael Pierce. The former Raven performed at a very similar level as Joseph, but he is four years younger. The run-stuffing nose tackle’s acquisition has to be viewed as a bit of a positive for the Vikings defense.
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The other guys seeing time on the interior of the defensive line aren’t very good. Both Shamar Stephen and Jaleel Johnson finished way below-average according to the PFF grading system.
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3.2 Defensive Ends (DEs) / Edge Rushers (ED)
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The Vikings had one of the most fearsome DE duo with Danielle Hunter and Everson Griffen. They racked up 14.5 and 8 sacks, respectively.
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Casual fans probably know who Danielle Hunter is. But they don’t realize how good he is; he doesn’t get enough credit, possibly due to playing in a smaller market.
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If you look at the numbers, he’s been a beast. Did you know he became the youngest player in NFL history to reach the 50-sack mark? He picked up 14.5 sacks in each of the past two years, and he has averaged 10.9 over his five-year career. The former LSU player was a steal in the 3rd round of the 2015 draft!
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Everson Griffen is getting older at 32 years old. At the time of writing, he has yet to sign with a team. He is very likely to find a suitor, but all signs point towards him leaving Minnesota. That will leave a void for sure.
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Griffen has averaged 8.8 sacks during the last eight seasons. He has spent his entire 10-year career with the Vikings and has missed very few games. He’s a true warrior.
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So, who will take Griffen’s spot? Stephen Weatherly was a key reserve for the team last year, but he left for Carolina. Is Ifeadi Odenigbo ready to pick up the slack? He came out of nowhere to record seven sacks last year!
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After being chosen in the 7th round of the 2017 draft, Odenigbo barely played any snaps in his first two seasons. I seriously doubt he can be the long-term answer and I believe last year’s seven sacks were an outlier.
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3.3 Linebackers (LBs)
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Eric Kendricks had one of the most improbable seasons last year. His PFF marks had varied between 59 and 69 since entering the league five years ago. Then, he earned a jaw-dropping 90.1 grade in 2019, which put him as the second-best linebacker in the entire league. He didn’t do much as a pass rusher, but he was great defending the run and covering people.
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Anthony Barr had a subpar year and finished as a below-average LB according to ProFootballFocus. He’s been a steady producer, but his grades have been all over the place during his six-year career. He received his second-lowest mark in 2019.
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Eric Wilson has been a reserve player since joining the league in 2017. He’ll likely have a similar role in the upcoming season. He did show adequate skills last year.
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3.4 Cornerbacks (CBs)
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Wow, a lot of shuffling has taken place with Minnesota’s secondary during the offseason.
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Both 2019 starters, Trae Waynes and Xavier Rhodes, are gone to other teams. And their primary slot corner, Mackensie Alexander, also signed with another squad. Ouch.
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Waynes never played at the level of a #11 overall pick, but he yielded steady play during his five-year stint with the Vikings. His PFF grades have been very consistent year-over-year, and he repeatedly finished slightly above-average among all CBs. He’s the guy the team will miss the most.
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Let’s face the reality: Xavier Rhodes was one of the worst corners in the league last year. His play took a big hit in 2018, and things got even worse in 2019. He really needed a chance of scenery; perhaps joining the Colts will rejuvenate his career.
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As for Mackensie Alexander, I feel like the team should have tried harder to keep him. His first two seasons were difficult after getting drafted in the 2nd round out of Clemson, but his last couple of years were much more promising. He could have rendered some valuable services to a team that had just lost its two starters.
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The door is now wide open for 2018 first-rounder Mike Hughes. The jury is still out on whether he can assume a starting role in the NFL, but I guess we’ll find out very soon.
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The Vikings decided to address the glaring hole at the position by selecting Jeff Gladney with the 31st overall pick in this year’s draft. Gladney is a sound tackler and a good blitzer too.
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He was a four-year starter out of TCU, where he was one of just two players with at least 15 passes defended in each of the past two years. However, he has a lengthy injury history.
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3.5 Safeties (S)
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Harrison Smith is a perennial All-Pro safety. He’s been racking up tackles and interceptions throughout his eight-year tenure in the NFL. Averaging close to 3 picks per season over such a long span is impressive.
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Talk about defying the odds. Anthony Harris went undrafted five years ago. Fast-forward to today, and he’s received 89.0 and 91.1 grades from PFF the last two seasons. He finished as the top safety in the NFL out of 87 qualifiers.
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In other words, the Vikings may have the best safety duo in the NFL. The only bad news is they lost depth when both Andrew Sendejo and Jayron Kearse left via free agency.
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2020 VS 2019 DEFENSE
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Replacing Linval Joseph with Michael Pierce is a small gain for this Vikings defense, in my opinion. That’s about it for the good news for this unit.
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Stud pass rusher Everson Griffen seems destined to leave the team, and one of their main backups, Stephen Weatherly signed with the Panthers.
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At linebacker, I don’t mean to be a party pooper, but Kendricks is very unlikely to match his 2019 performance. He had been an average LB for four years; I doubt the switch suddenly went on and that he will keep being a top 5 linebacker in the NFL.
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Last year’s top three CBs are gone, as well as two backups at the safety position. As of now, the team hasn’t signed any free agent to replace them. This is not a surprise, considering the bad cap situation the team is in. They drafted a few guys, including Jeff Gladney late in the first round, but their impact remains to be seen.
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Many new faces on defense, plus a drop in talent invariably equals a big downgrade. The team allowed the fifth-fewest points in the league last year; they’ll be lucky if they finish above-average in 2020.
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Final call (2020 vs 2019): Big downgrade
​

4. Regular Season Wins

According to sportsbooks, the Minnesota Vikings are expected to win 8.5 games this season. Should we bet the “over” or the “under”?
​
I'll answer this question via two different methods.
​
4.1 Professor MJ's Prediction
​
I won't go into the mathematical details, but here is a summary of my own personal pick (based on my analysis above and my estimated spreads for the Vikings' 16 games):
​
OVER 8.5 WINS

• Estimated Probability: 72%
• Best Odds: -121 (DraftKings)
• ROI: +31.5%

​
UNDER 8.5 WINS

• Estimated Probability: 28%
• Best Odds: +139 (Pinnacle)
• ROI: -33.1%

​
Tip: Bet OVER 8.5 wins
​
4.2 Based on BetOnline's Point Spreads
​
Here is the methodology I used here:

• Use BetOnline.ag’s point spreads on all 256 regular season games.
• Convert those point spreads into win probabilities.
• Simulate each of the 256 games, according to those win probabilities, via the R statistical software.
• Repeat the previous step one million times (you get 1M simulated seasons).
• Count the proportion of seasons where the Vikings won more or less than 8.5 games.

​
Here are the results:
​
OVER 8.5 WINS

• Estimated Probability: 63.1%
• Best Odds: -121 (DraftKings)
• ROI: +15.2%

​
UNDER 8.5 WINS

• Estimated Probability: 36.9%
• Best Odds: +139 (Pinnacle)
• ROI: -11.8%

​
Tip: Bet OVER 8.5 wins
​
Here are BetOnline’s point spreads for the Vikings’ 16 regular season games:

• HOME: -6 vs ATL, -9 vs CAR, -4 vs CHI, -2.5 vs DAL, -7 vs DET, -3 vs GB, -11.5 vs JAX, -3.5 vs TEN.
• ROAD: 0 @ CHI, -2 @ DET, +3 @ GB, 0 @ HOU, +2 @ IND, +5.5 @ NO, +3 @ SEA, +3 @ TB.

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Note: The “Best odds” from the table above were obtained after looking at 13 well-known online sportsbooks on May 18th, 2020.
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Tomorrow I'll preview the Dallas Cowboys!
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Professor MJ