Well, do you have any tips for CS:GO Betting Recovery? Both emotionally and in terms of the bets I put out?
So, I've recently lost an all-in (100% my fault, I bet on BO1 Nuke.. D:) and I guess I got cocky after winning 4 all-ins in a row. Now that I have no skins and 10 bucks, where should I start and what should I do? My current gameplan is just to bet on T1 vs. T4 games, and all-in a top tier vs. lowtier, BO5, to get like 1 dollar in returns. Eventually, it'll add up, but do you guys have any tips?
Tips, tricks & anything else that has helped you become a more profitable bettor?
Whether you’re one year into the game or over a decade in, what are some of the tips and tricks you’ve picked up along the way that have helped you become a more profitable bettor? Seen a couple posts on here lately from people looking for tips on gambling, bank roll management, etc. Figured I’d add in some things I’ve learned that have helped me this season. 1). Figure out your unit size and stick to it religiously, win or lose. I would say this is the first and most important step you should take before placing a bet. A good rule of thumb is to make your unit size around 5% of your bankroll. So if your bankroll is $1,000, then your one unit should be $50. And when making bets, try to be consistent with the unit size you’re betting. Personally, I never go over 2U on one single bet. Far too often I’ve seen someone bet $100/bet and go on a four-bet win streak, then on that fifth bet they decide to risk it all and lose. Now, instead of being 4-1 (+$300ish), you’re now 4-1 (-$100). 2). Start tracking your bets. We’ve all had that moment trying to navigate to the “graded bets” section of our Sportsbook to look back at past bets, only to find an unorganized rambling of words. Instead, try keeping track of your bets in an organized manner. There are several apps out there that help with tracking bets (i.e. Action Network, BetQL, etc.) but an Excel spreadsheet works just as good. This is how I set up mine. This helps for several reasons. For one, it helps me ensure I’m keeping my units bet consistent. But it also helps me keep track of how much I’ve won (or lost). For instance, when I first started out, seeing that I was minus-$1000 helped bring me to the moment where I had to tell myself that either I need to stop gambling or I need to seriously reconsider my approach. 3). Don’t be a full-on parlay whore or a teaser slut. It’s easy to get sucked into the lure of the parlays and teasers. As a former whore/slut to these sucker bets, I know. Sure, winning $2,000 off of a $100 parlay sounds a lot better than winning $90 off a $100 straight bet. However, the probability of hitting one compared to the other is a heck of lot lower as well. But if playing parlays and teasers is an itch you just need to scratch, consider playing them in smaller units. I personally play one parlay a week, but I keep it at 0.25u and I limit it to three teams max and when I play teasers, I only do two-teamers (-110 or -120 depending on your book). 4). Never make emotional or angry bets. Ever. In simpler terms: Don’t chase losses. In betting, you’ll have winning nights and you’ll have losing nights. But the main difference between profitable bettors and losing bettors? One knows how to take a losing night on the chin and live to fight another day while the other foolishly adds on to the losses. Sure, you might get lucky and hit a desperation bet to recoup some of the losses. But at that point, you’re making bets purely off of emotion—or under the influence of alcohol—instead of off research. More often than not, you’re not going to like the result that comes with that style of betting. 5). Don’t pay for picks. You’re already giving the house juice, why add more by paying someone else daily or monthly for their picks? Instead, look into purchasing resources that are not only far more cheaper but also can help you make better-informed picks (i.e. Pro Football Focus, Action Network, Sportsline, etc.) Once you start to educate yourself on line movements, knowing which side the smart money is coming in and which sides are getting steamed, you’ll start to make educated bets on your own. 6). Learn from your mistakes and successes. At the end of the week, I always like to take a look back at what worked and what didn’t. If a bet lost, I try and look back and see what I read wrong. For instance, I was on the Saints spread in their MNF game against the Raiders. All the experts, all the smart money was on the Raiders. Even the line movement on the day of was going the Raiders way (from -5.5 down to -4). In hindsight, with the smart money and my gut being on opposite sides, this should have been a “no play” for me. As a result, moving forward I usually highlight 3 or 4 games I like around Tuesday and keep track of the lines posted on my books, the bet% and money% and anything else. Then when game day approaches, if everything aligns, I place the bet. If not, I hold. As they say, sometimes the best bet you make is the one you don’t place. That’s really all that jumps out to me. Anyone else have other things they’ve learned along the way?
Building a PC is actually more entertaining than you think. However if you don't like to do research about a part's specs, then you might not find this helpful. This is how you will truly value your PC, this way you will look at your PC and know its worth, instead of looking at a box shape with some lights. This guide is useful when building from scratch, since it will go through all parts one by one in the best possible order to greatly reduce the amount of times you have to go back and change parts. (You might not even have to go back and change parts at all). If you need to upgrade and/or still looking for parts, skip to the respective section for the part, you will profit aswell from reading this guide. "The most important part is to HAVE FUN!" -Waffler11 Before we start, there are a some things that you have to be clear about:
This guide will not Build the PC for you. This is a guide for you to know what to look for and which parts are most suitable for your build.
Read every single thing you don't know about each part's specs, obviously you don't have to go crazy with all things. I will be mentioning things that YOU NEED to look for, but the more curious you are the better.
This will help you easily determine most incompatibilities and help you build everything part by part so you don't have to go back to a specific part and change it over and over.
Organization
Google for your preferred web page for building PCs. I don't want to seem like promoting a Webpage in particular, but PcPartPicker worked great for me and they give you warnings regarding incompatibility. (Other websites might do the same).
Ask yourself: "For what am I building this PC". To run a game in particular? perhaps to have the best of the best? who knows? Only you. It is based on this that you will build your PC and estimate a budget (notice how I said estimate a budget, because it will vary as you learn more about PC parts).
Once you know what you want your PC for, you will have to preplan. This is having an idea of what GPU you need to run certain games, and is actually the most notorious part of a PC, so think of one, but might not be the definitive GPU (you might even want to change GPU brands).
What if you want to choose the Monitor first? No problem at all, you can also choose your desired GPU based on the Resolution and Refresh Rates you wish to play. In this case if you want to know which monitor will be the best for you, scroll down to the "Monitor" part of the Guide. (Keep in mind that prioritizing the Monitor means you have to try to keep the GPU that can run at the desired Resolution and Refresh Rates while also keeping in mind any bottleneck from both GPU and CPU)
Notice: Some RGB counterparts will be more expensive, so if you want a lot of RGB on your PC, you know what to expect on that budget. More on this as the guide goes on. First Part: CPU Forget about that beautiful case you saw somewhere or those cool shaped RAMs or the flashy Motherboard, CHOOSE A CPU FIRST. How To Choose A CPU For Your Needs
First of all, know your options, Intel and AMD are both very good, check out for those 2.
Please take your time to read about the CPU specs. Things to look for are Cores, Threads, Base Clock, Boost Clock and their general performance in your trusted benchmark webpage. All these specs differ from Generation and Model.
You don't have to worry between AMD, Intel and Nvidia CPUs and GPUs not working properly together or being incompatible, they will work smoothly in any combination.
Consider for the future about Single, Dual and Quad Channel. This is for the RAM, I suggest you read about these now and choose a CPU which supports these Channels. Having more than Single Channel will increase the RAMs brandwidth, leading to increased Memory Read, Write, Copy and Brandwidth.
Stock coolers usually comes with a stick thermal paste already applied as well as some coolers from other brands that you but some may not have the paste applied, so its good that you read if they will have it already applied or not.
Thermal Paste: Keep in mind that eventually you will need to reapply paste if you move the cooler, if you notice an unusual increase in your temps or after a few years. In which case you can get a good Thermal Paste, they are are relatively cheap, make a big impact on your CPU temperatures and are easy to apply. So there is no harm getting a Thermal Paste, just make sure you get a quality thermal paste. And yes, some reduce temperatures better than others but also the way you apply it and the amount you apply helps reducing temperatures, look for the best way and quantity.
Notice: You don't necessarily have to prioritize the GPU over the CPU, this is just in case you plan on only playing less demanding popular games like, CS:GO, LoL, Valorant, etc. they don't require the best of GPUs out there so you can go for a better CPU. Second Part: Case Cases comes in many sizes, the 3 most popular ones are: Full Tower, Mid Tower and Mini-ITX. Check out each of these case's sizes and spacing. Some cases of the same size category will vary in sizes, and some times not fit the motherboard of the specific size category. For Ex: An ATX case might be smaller than most ATX cases and an ATX motherboard might not fit properly, so also checking the cases's dimensions where the motherboard will be placed, it is important to be aware of these scenarios.
Keep in mind the size of your GPU (since it takes a lot of space) to make sure it fits on your case. New Gen GPUs are being manufactured in a bigger size.
It's time to choose the manufacturer, they will mostly vary in Aesthetics however keep in mind, you should probably want to make sure the case has good "Airflow", the name itself tells you what it is, but look it up if you are not sure. Best way to make sure the case has good airflow is to check reviews... multiple reviews, and good ones where they will specify what room temp they had during the test so you get an idea.
Make sure you get a modern case, you won't regret it but you might want a modern case so you can use all of the motherboard's ports and not waste a single penny also when upgrading the motherboard, since you are more likely to change the motherboard before the case (this is another reason why the case is the second part).
Check what's in the box for the case you want to choose, it might not come in with enough fans than you expected, or maybe it won't come with some of the things you see in some pictures.
Third Part:GPU You probably did not expected this but, there is nothing complicated about GPUs.
Look for features about each GPU brand and model, there are brands and model with their own features that is why I can't list them to you, depends on what brand you choose.
You have already chose a Brand because you knew which one would run the game you want to play, or maybe you changed brands and models. Either way, now it's time for you to look about the specifications: Base Clock, Boost Clock & Memory Size. (I want you to look at this because they vary depending on Brand, Model and Series and they give you an idea on which you would rather choose)
Now you most likely already decided your Brand, Model and Series for the GPU, check out the Display Connectors and keep that in mind, we will need this for the monitor.
Notice: The more Memory Capacity the GPU has does not mean better performance. Fourth Part: Motherboard Ah yes, the motherboard, remember the CPU you chose? and the case you chose? here is where you will be limited to your motherboard choosing. (choosing the right motherboard might take awhile specially with all the features one motherboard can have and all the different variations). Also you might come across SLI (for Nvidia) and/or CrossFire (for Radeon). Before you get hyped, games need to be SLI/CrossFire compatible and not to mention that sometimes it will not work with different GPUs Architecture. So instead of spending money for this feature in a motherboard and for 1 extra GPU, your best choice is for a single high-end GPU. (Also with the amount of power and performance on the new gen GPUs, SLI and CrossFire are less worth. *IMPORTANT: Please read motherboard specs and features, literally anything you don't know, look up what it is, this is critical for building a PC. Looking for everything will also let you easily identify incompatibilities. Some motherboards does not include Sound Card and/or Wi-Fi cards.
First, and I mean it, first you must make sure that your motherboard fits the case, motherboards commonly come in mini ITX and ATX, look those up in google and make sure which size is the one for your case (obviously you will realize a mini ITX motherboard can actually be used on a mid tower or bigger).
Now you will choose a motherboard with the right Socket depending on the CPU you chose.
Now make sure that the motherboard's BIOS is up to date with the CPU you chose, or you will get firetrucked up yours. Pro Tip: google "Best motherboards for [CPU of your choosing]".
Another important thing to consider for a motherboard, if it supports Dual Channel & Quad Channel.
Great, with all those 4 filters, you can freely look for a nice looking Motherboard for your PC build and read the specs, yes please read them you won't regret it. Specially since I almost bought a motherboard dedicated for custom water cooling, I was about to pay extra for nothing.
Some other important things to look for in a motherboard are the amount of VRM and their quality. The amount of Memory Type and also how much Memory Speed is supported, the storage drives slots available. Another lesser thing to look for in a motherboard, is that each motherboard brand offers their unique features, check them out if you feel like and see which one you like the most.
Notice: Wi-Fi Cards are not mandatory, they are more of an option. Fifth Part: RAM There is more to look for a RAM than you might think, don't just look for a RAM based on the amount of GBs it has. RAM comes in different Memory Type and have different Memory Speed and CAS Latency, check out what role both of these terms play in a PC to choose your preferred one.
You can buy individually RAM usually comes in pair, properly named as "RAM Kit", which some are 8GB (2x4) or 16GB (2x8) or 32GB (4x8) or 32GB (2x16) etc. If you still haven't figured it out, let me explain: Ex. we have 16GB (2x8). The "16GB" is the total memory capacity, this total memory capacity is divided into 2 different RAM sticks, each one with 8GB capacity. (Think carefully which kit you choose, since your Motherboard has limited RAM slots).
Which RAM to choose? one that does not exceeds the Motherboard's max Memory Capacity and that is the right Memory Type for your motherboard while also making sure the RAM can run with the CPU. Another pro-tip: google "best ram for [CPU of your choosing]".
Remember about Single, Dual and Quad Channel. Be sure to check if both the motherboard and CPU are compatible with Dual Channel and/or Quad Channel.
Once you have chosen a RAM brand, and want to increase your RAM Memory Capacity, you have buy the same brand of RAM and RAM Model.
You can freely choose the RAM's Aesthetics you like the most (also, RAM can be more expensive just because they have RGB). There is a catch though, look up if any Brand's RAM model has any known issue with certain motherboards or CPUs. Since looks might be deceiving.
Sixth Part: Storage Probably the simplest part, SSD is a lot more faster and expensive than the HDD, so much faster that if you have an SSD and you don't install windows on the SSD you must really enjoy looking at your OS booting up.
SSD is faster for gaming, yes, game loading times is not mainly determined by GPU, its by storage drives. But SSD gets expensive as you get more Storage capacity, so you can have SSDs and HDDs both in the same motherboard, if your motherboard has the designated storage slots for the drives.
Look for these terms: Form Factors for Storage Drives, SSD, HDD, Write/Read speed, Random write/read IOPS.
Check special features for each individual storage drive from each brand.
Seventh Part: Cooler This will be long because of all the different things to cover. First of all, Search what OverClocking a CPU is. You don't need to know how to OverClock yet, as it also depends on which CPU you chose, but if you are interested in OverClocking, I recommend you learn how a CPU Clocks and Voltages works together, then you learn how to OverClock. Answer these questions:
Does your CPU comes with a stock cooler?
Yes
No
Do you plan on OverClocking your CPU?
You must buy a Cooler
Yes
No
Highly recommended to buy a Cooler
You don't need to buy a Cooler
(If you are reading from mobile, there is a table that won't properly show. The table determines whether you should buy or not a cooler based on your plans) *If you don't want/need to buy a cooler you can skip to the next part* There are Air Cooler and Water Cooler (AIO). AIOs are water coolers already built that will only require screwing to mount and do not take up much space, perfect for RGB builds. However, AIOs might not fit your Case and some Air Coolers are not compatible with your motherboard.
First choose if you are going with Air Cooling or AIO, both are good ways to cool the hottest of CPUs, so don't think Water is worthless or Air is worthless.
Check out which cooler you like the most and take these into consideration: How much they can cool the CPU during load and idle times while considering how much noise (dBA) they produce the harder they have to work to cool the CPU. (The amount of noise is personal preference, if you want a quieter place or don't mind the little noise)
After choosing one, make sure it fits your case and/or it is compatible with your motherboard. Best way to check this is looking for Reviews, Youtube videos for the specific case and cooler or asking on Reddit or the Cooler's webpage might provide that information. (Yes, if you know the measurements of the case and the Coolers it should fit, but there could be some exceptions or a little piece from the inside which will block the cooler, best bet is the 3 previous suggestions).
Notice: I do not talk about custom water cooling, there is no specific way to install it so you would have to carefully measure and get the individual parts. Also installing such cooler is a lot harder very expensive and you would have to really enjoy working hard to give it maintenance. I would suggest you stick with traditional coolers. Eighth Part: Power Supply Unit Hopefully the webpage you chose to build your PC is able to estimate your fully built PC's Watts consumption, from this estimate you will choose a proper PSU. Before we go on, forget anything you read about PSUs, this part has a lot of mixed "opinions". Once you read more and more about PSU you can have your own opinion about PSUs.
Look what are the differences between a Fully Modular, Semi Modular and Non Modular PSU. (Fully Modular becomes more expensive, but opens up for more compatibility and any future parts upgrade, this is a very important thing to consider, however you might not need a Fully nor a Semi Modular PSU).
It is important to check the PSUs Certification. Any Certified PSU is a safe choice, you might want to read why PSU are certified and what each type of certification means.
Now like any other part, PSUs also comes in with different features depending on the brand and their different models. Also keep in mind the most important things to look in a PSU is the amount of output pin slots and the size of the PSU will fit your case.
Monitor You sure have one in mind, but listen carefully, read about every terms in a monitor, know what those 1ms Response Time and 144hz Refresh Rate you often see on the specifications mean.
Be mindful when choosing a Monitor Size, a 27" 1080p monitor looks like it has less Resolution than a 24" 1080p monitor, and this is because of the PPI. Look up what that is and then you can have an idea of what would be the ideal Monitor Size and Resolution.
There are 3 different panels for monitors: IPS, VA, & TN. Each of this panels offer different functionality. It is something important to take into consideration.
Now, if your GPU has an HDMI 2.0, to fully take advantage of your GPU, get a Monitor with an HDMI 2.0, maybe your GPU has DisplayPort 1.4, which offers more bandwidth than HDMI 2.0, then you would want to consider buying a monitor with DisplayPort 1.4. Look all about the different Video Connectivity Protocols. Keep in mind that you don't need to have the exact same protocol on both ends, for Ex.: You can connect the DisplayPort cable, from the 1.4 on your GPU into the 1.2 into your Monitor and work fine.
Again, each Brand and their models have different features and design, look around which one you like the most.
That is all about the crucial parts of a PC, you can then add another GPU, or another case fan, or a toy, even a toy, like an anime figurine or whatever, seems to be trendy now a day. Hopefully you found this useful in any way possible, and I would be a very proud to know you read everything just to build your PC, your "Baby" if you will. I'll leave these useful web pages that I personally think you should know about while building a PC. CPU-world.com - Use this to check out all information about a certain CPU. (Don't let the weird names and numbers scare you) Pangoly.com - A website to Build your PCs and is also very good when you want to compare different part options. Obviously you can also use YouTube and Reddit for reviews and/or specific questions, comparisons and statistics. Please consider leaving any kind of feedback, if there is something that should be reviewed/changed on this guide, do let me know so I can work on it ensure this guide as flawless as possible. Other than that comment anything you did like, as always following this subreddit's rules, I will be more than happy to read all comments/questions. I would also appreciate anyone else answering other users questions as you would be helping me out while I am busy on something else. Message for this post: Some may have felt let down by the guide, most of you appreciated it and I did not expect this guide to blow up like this. I personally made this from my own experience and my goal was to encourage people to research everything themselves when building a PC. when I did it myself, I enjoyed it very much. The title seems misleading yes, it is a lot of "google this and that" and less of a glossary for you to know what each thing is. But I am not going to leave it like this. Thanks to all the feedbacks I have been getting in the comments, all the incorrect points and other points I missed, I will fix them and soon enough this guide should be good for anyone reading this. I ask you to not stop commenting out these important details, let us together finish this guide, after all I started to grow fond of thebuildapcsubreddit and I want the best for everyone here. Thank you all for the support and critics.
Reminder: Do NOT buy from 3rd Party Marketplace Seller on Ebay/Amazon/Newegg (unless you want to pay more). Assume all the 3rd party sellers are scalping. If it's not being sold by the actual retailer (e.g. Amazon selling on Amazon.com or Newegg selling on Newegg.com) then you should treat the product as sold out and wait.
Below is the compilation of all the reviews that have been posted so far. I will be updating this continuously throughout the day with the conclusion of each publications and any new review links. This will be sorted alphabetically.
NVIDIA says that the RTX 3080 is the gaming card and the RTX 3090 is the hybrid creative card – but we respectfully disagree. The RTX 3090 is the flagship gaming card that can also run intensive creative apps very well, especially by virtue of its huge 24GB framebuffer. But it is still not an RTX TITAN nor a Quadro. These cards cost a lot more and are optimized specifically for workstations and also for professional and creative apps. However, for RTX 2080 Ti gamers who paid $1199 and who have disposable cash for their hobby – although it has been eclipsed by the RTX 3080 – the RTX 3090 Founders Edition which costs $1500 is the card to maximize their upgrade. And for high-end gamers who also use creative apps, this card may become a very good value. Hobbies are very expensive to maintain, and the expense of PC gaming pales in comparison to what golfers, skiers, audiophiles, and many other hobbyists pay for their entertainment. But for high-end gamers on a budget, the $699 RTX 3080 will provide the most value of the two cards. We cannot call the $1500 RTX 3090 a “good value” generally for gamers as it is a halo card and it absolutely does not provide anywhere close to double the performance of a $700 RTX 3080. However, for some professionals, two RTX 3090s may give them exactly what they need as it is the only Ampere gaming card to support NVLink providing up to 112.5 GB/s of total bandwidth between two GPUs which when SLI’d together will allow them to access a massive 48GB of vRAM. SLI is no longer supported by NVIDIA for gaming, and emphasis will be placed on mGPU only as implemented by game developers.
So there we have it. The RTX 3090 delivers - at best - 15 to 16 per cent more gaming performance than the RTX 3080. In terms of price vs performance, there is only one winner here. And suffice to say, we would expect to see factory overclocked RTX 3080 cards bite into the already fairly slender advantage delivered by Nvidia's new GPU king. Certainly in gaming terms then, the smart money would be spend on an RTX 3080, and if you're on a 1440p high refresh rate monitor and you're looking to maximise price vs performance, I'd urge you to look at the RTX 2080 Ti numbers in this review: if Nvidia's claims pan out, you'll be getting that and potentially more from the cheaper still RTX 3070. All of which raises the question - why make an RTX 3090 at all? The answers are numerous. First of all, PC gaming has never adhered to offering performance increases in line with the actual amount of money spent. Whether it's Titans, Intel Extreme processors, high-end motherboards or performance RAM, if you want the best, you'll end up paying a huge amount of money to attain it. This is only a problem where there are no alternatives and in the case of the RTX 3090, there is one - the RTX 3080 at almost half of the price. But more compelling is the fact that Nvidia is now blurring the lines between the gaming GeForce line and the prosumer-orientated Quadro offerings. High-end Quadro cards are similar to RTX 3090 and Titan RTX in several respects - usually in that they deliver the fully unlocked Nvidia silicon paired with huge amounts of VRAM. Where they differ is in support and drivers, something that creatives, streamers or video editors may not wish to pay even more of a premium for. In short, RTX 3090 looks massively expensive as a gamer card, but compared to the professional Quadro line, there are clear savings. In the meantime, RTX 3090 delivers the Titan experience for the new generation of graphics hardware. Its appeal is niche, the halo product factor is huge and the performance boost - while not exactly huge - is likely enough to convince the cash rich to invest and for the creator audience to seriously consider it. For my use cases, the extra money is obviously worth it. I also think that the way Nvidia packages and markets the product is appealing: the RTX 3090 looks and feels special, its gigantic form factor and swish aesthetic will score points with those that take pride in their PC looking good and its thermal and especially acoustic performance are excellent. It's really, really quiet. All told then, RTX 3090 is the traditional hard sell for the mainstream gamer but the high-end crowd will likely lap it up. But it leaves me with a simple question: where next for the Titan and Ti brands? You don't retire powerhouse product tiers for no good reason and I can only wonder: is something even more powerful cooking?
When we had our first experience with the GeForce RTX 3080, we were nothing short of impressed. Testing the GeForce RTX 3090 is yet another step up. But we're not sure if the 3090 is the better option though, as you'll need very stringent requirements in order for it to see a good performance benefit. Granted, and I have written this many times in the past with the Titans and the like, a graphics card like this is bound to run into bottlenecks much faster than your normal graphics cards. Three factors come into play here, CPU bottlenecks, low-resolution bottlenecks, and the actual game (API). The GeForce RTX 3090 is the kind of product that needs to be free from all three aforementioned factors. Thus, you need to have a spicy processor that can keep up with the card, you need lovely GPU bound games preferably with DX12 ASYNC compute and, of course, if you are not gaming at the very least in Ultra HD, then why even bother, right? The flipside of the coin is that when you have these three musketeers applied and in effect, well, then there is no card faster than the 3090, trust me; it's a freakfest of performance, but granted, also bitter-sweet when weighing all factors in. NVIDIA's Ampere product line up has been impressive all the way, there's nothing other to conclude than that. Is it all perfect? Well, performance-wise in the year 2020 we cannot complain. Of course, there is an energy consumption factor to weigh in as a negative factor and, yes, there's pricing to consider. Both are far too high for the product to make any real sense. For gaming, we do not feel the 3090 makes a substantial enough difference over the RTX 3080 with 10 to 15% differentials, and that's mainly due to system bottlenecks really. You need to game at Ultra HD and beyond for this card to make a bit of sense. We also recognize that the two factors do not need to make sense for quite a bunch of you as the product sits in a very extreme niche. But I stated enough about that. I like this chunk of hardware sitting inside a PC though as, no matter how you look at it, it is a majestic product. Please make sure you have plenty of ventilation though as the RTX 3090 will dump lots of heat. It is big but still looks terrific. And the performance, oh man... that performance, it is all good all the way as long as you uphold my three musketeers remark. Where I could nag a little about the 10 GB VRAM on the GeForce RTX 3080, we cannot complain even the slightest bit about the whopping big mac feature of the 3090, 24 GB of the fastest GDDR6X your money can get you, take that Flight Sim 2020! This is an Ultra HD card, in that domain, it shines whether that is using shading (regular rendered games) or when using hybrid ray-tracing + DLSS. It's a purebred but unfortunately very power-hungry product that will reach only a select group of people. But it is formidable if you deliver it to the right circumstances. Would we recommend this product? Ehm no, you are better off with GeForce RTX 3070 or 3080 as, money-wise, this doesn't make much sense. But it is genuinely a startling product worthy of a top pick award, an award we hand out so rarely for a reference or Founder product but we also have to acknowledge that NVIDIA really is stepping up on their 'reference' designs and is now setting a new and better standard.
This commentary puts the RTX 3090 into a difficult spot. It's 10 percent faster for gaming yet costs over twice as much as the RTX 3080. Value for money is poor when examined from a gaming point of view. Part of that huge cost rests with the 24GB of GDDR6X memory that has limited real-world benefit in games. Rather, it's more useful in professional rendering as the larger pool can speed-up time to completion massively. And here's the rub. Given its characteristics, this card ought to be called the RTX Titan or GeForce RTX Studio and positioned more diligently for the creatoprofessional community where computational power and large VRAM go hand in hand. The real RTX 3090, meanwhile, gaming focussed first and foremost, ought to arrive with 12GB of memory and a $999 price point, thereby offering a compelling upgrade without resorting to Titan-esque pricing. Yet all that said, the insatiable appetite and apparent deep pockets of enthusiasts will mean Nvidia sells out of these $1,500 boards today: demand far outstrips supply. And does it matter what it's called, how much memory it has, or even what price it is? Not in the big scheme of things because there is a market for it. Being part of the GeForce RTX firmament has opened up the way for add-in card partners to produce their own boards. The Gigabyte Gaming OC does most things right. It's built well and looks good, and duly tops all the important gaming charts at 4K. We'd encourage a lower noise profile through a relaxation of temps, but if you have the means by which to buy graphics performance hegemony, the Gaming OC isn't a bad shout... if you can find it in stock.
Summarizing the GeForce RTX 3090's performance is simple -- it's the single fastest GPU on the market currently, bar none. There's nuance to consider here, though. Versus the GeForce RTX 3080, disregarding CPU limited situations or corner cases, the more powerful RTX 3090's advantages over the 3080 only range from about 4% to 20%. Versus the Titan RTX, the GeForce RTX 3090's advantages increase to approximately 6% to 40%. Consider complex creator workloads which can leverage the GeForce RTX 3090's additional resources and memory, however, and it is simply in another class altogether and can be many times faster than either the RTX 3080 or Titan RTX. Obviously, the $1,499 GeForce RTX 3090 Founder's Edition isn't an overall value play for the vast majority of users. If you're a gamer shopping for a new high-end GPU, the GeForce RTX 3080 at less than 1/2 the price is the much better buy. Compared to the $2,500 Titan RTX or $1,300 - $1,500-ish GeForce RTX 2080 Ti though, the GeForce RTX 3090 is the significantly better choice. Your perspective on the GeForce RTX 3090's value proposition is ultimately going to depend on your particular use case. Unless they've got unlimited budgets and want the best-of-the-best, regardless of cost, hardcore gamers may scoff at the RTX 3090. Anyone utilizing the horsepower of the previous generation Titan RTX though, may be chomping at the bit. The GeForce RTX 3090's ultimate appeal is going to depend on the use-case, but whether or not you'll actually be able to get one is another story. The GeForce RTX 3090 is going to be available in limited quantities today -- NVIDIA said as much in yesterday's performance tease. NVIDIA pledges to make more available direct and through partners ASAP, however. We'll see how things shake out in the weeks ahead, and all bets are off when AMD's makes its RDNA2 announcements next month. NVIDIA's got a lot of wiggle room with Ampere and will likely react swiftly to anything AMD has in store. And let's not forget we still have the GeForce RTX 3070 inbound, which is going to have extremely broad appeal if NVIDIA's performance claims hold up.
In Summary: this card is a real giant, especially at higher resolutions, because even if the lead over the GeForce RTX 3080 isn’t always as high as dreamed, it’s always enough to reach the top position in playability. Right stop of many quality controllers included. Especially when the games of the GeForce RTX 3090 and the new architecture are on the line, the mail really goes off, which one must admit without envy, whereby the actual gain is not visible in pure FPS numbers. If you have looked at the page with the variances, you will quickly understand that the image is much better because it is softer. The FPS or percentiles are still much too coarse intervals to be able to reproduce this very subjective impression well. A blind test with 3 perons has completely confirmed my impression, because there is nothing better than a lot of memory, at most even more memory. Seen in this light, the RTX 3080 with 10 GB is more like Cinderella, who later has to make herself look more like Cinderella with 10 GB if she wants to get on the prince’s roller. But the customer always has something to complain about anyway (which is good by the way and keeps the suppliers on their toes) and NVIDIA keeps all options open in return to be able to top a possible Navi2x card with 16 GB memory expansion with 20 GB later. And does anyone still remember the mysterious SKU20 between the GeForce RTX 3080 and RTX 3090? If AMD doesn’t screw it up again this time, this SKU20 is sure to become a tie-break in pixel tennis. We’ll see. For a long time I have been wrestling with myself, which is probably the most important thing in this test. I have also tested 8K resolutions, but due to the lack of current practical relevance, I put this part on the back burner. If anyone can find someone who has a spare 8K TV, I’ll be happy to do so, if only because I’m also very interested in 8K-DLSS. But that’s like sucking on an ice cream that you’ve only printed out on a laser printer before. The increase in value of the RTX 3090 in relation to the RTX 3080 for the only gamer is, up to the memory extension, to be rather neglected and one understands also, why many critics will never pay the double price for 10 to 15% more gaming performance. Because I wouldn’t either. Only this is then exactly the target group for the circulated RTX 3080 (Ti) with double memory expansion. Their price should increase visibly in comparison to the 10 GB variant, but still be significantly below that of a GeForce RTX 3090. This is not defamatory or fraudulent, but simply follows the laws of the market. A top dog always costs a little more than pure scaling, logic and reason would allow. And the non-gamer or the not-only-gamer? The added value can be seen above all in the productive area, whether workstation or creation. Studio is the new GeForce RTX wonderland away from the Triple A games, and the Quadros can slowly return to the professional corner of certified specialty programs. What AMD started back then with the Vega Frontier Edition and unfortunately didn’t continue (why not?), NVIDIA has long since taken up and consistently perfected. The market has changed and studio is no longer an exotic phrase. Then even those from about 1500 Euro can survive without a headache tablet again.
RTX 3080 was heralded by many as an excellent value graphics card, delivering performance gains of around 30% compared to the RTX 2080 Ti, despite being several hundred pounds cheaper. With the RTX 3090, Nvidia isn’t chasing value for money, but the overall performance crown. And that is exactly what it has achieved. MSI’s RTX 3090 Gaming X Trio, for instance, is 14% faster than the RTX 3080 and 50% faster than the RTX 2080 Ti, when tested at 4K. No other GPU even comes close to matching its performance. At this point, many of you reading this may be thinking something along the line of ‘well, yes, it is 14% faster than an RTX 3080 – but it is also over double the price, so surely it is terrible value?’ And you would be 100% correct in thinking that. The thing is, Nvidia knows that too – RTX 3090 is simply not about value for money, and if that is something you prioritise when buying a new graphics card, don’tbuy a 3090. Rather, RTX 3090 is purely aimed at those who don’t give a toss about value. It’s for the gamers who want the fastest card going, and they will pay whatever price to claim those bragging rights. In this case of the MSI Gaming X Trio, the cost of this GPU’s unrivalled performance comes to £1530 here in the UK. Alongside gamers, I can also see professionals or creators looking past its steep asking price. If the increased render performance of this GPU could end up saving you an hour, two hours per week, for many that initial cost will pay for itself with increased productivity, especially if you need as much VRAM as you can get.
As with any launch, the primary details are in the GPU itself, and so the first half of this conclusion is the same for both of the AIB RTX 3090 graphics cards that we are reviewing today. If you want to know specifics of this particular card, skip down the page. Last week we saw the release of the RTX 3080. A card that combined next-gen performance with a remarkably attractive price point, and was one of the easiest products to recommend we've ever seen. 4K gaming for around the £700 mark might be expensive if you're just used to consoles, but if you're a diehard member of the "PC Gaming Master Race", then you know how much you had to spend to achieve the magical 4K60 mark. It's an absolute no brainer purchase. The RTX 3090 though, that comes with more asterisks and caveats than a Lance Armstrong win on the Tour de France. Make no mistake; the RTX 3090 is brutally fast. If performance is your thing, or performance without consideration of cost, or you want to flex on forums across the internet, then yeah, go for it. For everyone else, and that's most of us, there is a lot it does well, but it's a seriously niche product. We can go to Nvidia themselves for their key phraseology. With a tiny bit of paraphrasing, they say "The RTX 3090 is for 8K gaming, or heavy workload content creators. For 4K Gaming the RTX 3080 is, with current and immediate future titles, more than enough". If you want the best gaming experience, then as we saw last week, the clear choice is the RTX 3080. If you've been following the results today then clearly the RTX 3090 isn't enough of a leap forwards to justify being twice the price of the RTX 3080. It's often around 5% faster, sometimes 10%, sometimes not much faster at all. Turns out that Gears 5 in particular looked unhappy but it was an 'auto' setting on animation increasing its own settings so we will go back with it fixed to ultra and retest. The RTX 3090 is still though, whisper it, a bit of a comedown after the heights of our first Ampere experience. To justify the staggering cost of the RTX 3090 you need to fit into one of the following groups; Someone who games at 8K, either natively or via Nvidia's DSR technology. Someone who renders enormous amounts of 3D work. We're not just talking a 3D texture or model for a game; we're talking animated short films. Although even here the reality is that you need a professional solution far beyond the price or scope of the RTX 3090. Lastly, it would be best if you were someone who renders massive, RAW, 8K video footage regularly and has the memory and storage capacity to feed such a voracious data throughput. If you fall into one of those categories, then you'll already have the hardware necessary - 8K screen or 8K video camera - that the cost of the RTX 3090 is small potatoes. In which case you'll love the extra freedom and performance it can bring to your workload, smoothing out the waiting that is such a time-consuming element of the creative process. This logic holds true for both the Gigabyte and MSI cards we're looking at on launch.
There’s no doubt that the $1,500 GeForce RTX 3090 is indeed a “big ferocious GPU,” and the most powerful consumer graphics card ever created. The Nvidia Founders Edition delivers unprecedented performance for 4K gaming, frequently maxes out games at 1440p, and can even play at ludicrous 8K resolution in some games. It’s a beast for 3440x1440 ultrawide gaming too, as our separate ultrawide benchmarks piece shows. Support for HDMI 2.1 and AV1 decoding are delicious cherries on top. If you’re a pure gamer, though, you shouldn’t buy it, unless you’ve got deep pockets and want the best possible gaming performance, value be damned. The $700 GeForce RTX 3080 offers between 85 and 90 percent of the RTX 3090’s 4K gaming performance (depending on the game) for well under half the cost. It’s even closer at 1440p. If you’re only worried about raw gaming frame rates, the GeForce RTX 3080 is by far the better buy, because it also kicks all kinds of ass at 4K and high refresh rate 1440p and even offers the same HDMI 2.1 and AV1 decode support as its bigger brother. Nvidia likes to boast that the RTX 3090 is the first 8K gaming card, and while that’s true in some games, it falls far short of the 60 frames per second mark in many triple-A titles. Consider 8K gaming a nice occasional bonus more than a core feature. If you mix work and play, though, the GeForce RTX 3090 is a stunning value—especially if your workloads tap into CUDA. It’s significantly faster than the previous-gen RTX 2080 Ti, which fell within spitting distance of the RTX Titan, and offers the same 24GB VRAM capacity of that Titan. But it does so for $1,000 less than the RTX Titan’s cost. The GeForce RTX 3090 stomps all over most of our content creation benchmarks. Performance there is highly workload-dependent, of course, but we saw speed increases of anywhere from 30 to over 100 percent over the RTX 2080 Ti in several tasks, with many falling in the 50 to 80 percent range. That’s an uplift that will make your projects render tangibly faster—putting more money in your pocket. The lofty 24GB of GDDR6X memory makes the RTX 3090 a must-have in some scenarios where the 10GB to 12GB found in standard gaming cards flat-out can’t cut it, such as 8K media editing or AI training with large data sets. That alone will make it worth buying for some people, along with the NVLink connector that no other RTX 30-series GPU includes. If you don’t need those, the RTX 3080 comes close to the RTX 3090 in raw GPU power in many tests.
NVIDIA’s GeForce RTX 3090 is an interesting card for many reasons, and it’s harder to summarize than the RTX 3080 was, simply due to its top-end price and goals. The RTX 3080, priced at $699, was really easy to recommend to anyone wanting a new top-end gaming solution, because compared to the last-gen 2080S, 2080 Ti, or even TITAN RTX, the new card simply trounced them all. The GeForce RTX 3090, with its $1,499 price tag, caters to a different crowd. First, there are going to be those folks who simply want the best gaming or creator GPU possible, regardless of its premium price. We saw throughout our performance results that the RTX 3090 does manage to take a healthy lead in many cases, but the gains over RTX 3080 are not likely as pronounced as many were hoping. The biggest selling-point of the RTX 3090 is undoubtedly its massive frame buffer. For creators, having 24GB on tap likely means you will never run out during this generation, and if you manage to, we’re going to be mighty impressed. We do see more than 24GB being useful for deep-learning and AI research, but even there, it’s plenty for the vast majority of users. Interestingly, this GeForce is capable of taking advantage of NVLink, so those wanting to plug two of them into a machine could likewise combine their VRAM, activating a single 48GB frame buffer. Two of these cards would cost $500 more than the TITAN RTX, and obliterate it in rendering and deep-learning workloads (but of course draw a lot more power at the same time). For those wanting to push things even harder with single GPU, we suspect NVIDIA will likely release a new TITAN at some point with even more memory. Or, that’s at least our hope, because we don’t want to see the TITAN series just up and disappear. For gamers, a 24GB frame buffer can only be justified if you’re using top-end resolutions. Not even 4K is going to be problematic for most people with a 10GB frame buffer, but as we move up the scale, to 5K and 8K, that memory is going to become a lot more useful. By now, you likely know whether or not the monstrous GeForce RTX 3090 is for you. Fortunately, if it isn’t, the RTX 3080 hasn’t gone anywhere, and it still proves to be of great value (you know – if you can find it in stock) for its $699 price. NVIDIA also has a $499 RTX 3070 en route next month, so all told, the company is going to be taking good care of its enthusiast fans with this trio of GPUs. Saying that, we still look forward to the even lower-end parts, as those could ooze value even more than the bigger cards.
Still, the performance offered by the RTX 3090 is impressive; the Gaming X is 53% faster than RTX 2080 Ti, 81% faster than RTX 2080 Super. AMD's Radeon RX 5700 XT is less than half as fast, the performance uplift vs the 3090 is 227%! AMD Big Navi better be a success. With those performance numbers RTX 3090 is definitely suited for 4K resolution gaming. Many games will run over 90 FPS, at highest details, in 4K, nearly all over 60, only Control is slightly below that, but DLSS will easily boost FPS beyond that. With RTX 3090 NVIDIA is introducing "playable 8K", which rests on several pillars. In order to connect an 8K display you previously had to use multiple cables, now you can use just a single HDMI 2.1 cable. At higher resolution, the VRAM usage goes up, RTX 3090 has you covered, offering 24 GB of memory, which is more than twice that of the 10 GB RTX 3080. Last but not least, on the software side, they added the capability to capture 8K gameplay with Shadow Play. In order to improve framerates (remember, 8K processes 16x the pixels as Full HD), NVIDIA created DLSS 8K, which renders the game at 1440p native, and scales the output by x3, in each direction, using machine learning. All of these technologies are still in its infancy, game support is limited and displays are expensive, we'll look into this in more detail in the future. 24 GB VRAM is definitely future-proof, but I'm having doubts whether you really need that much memory. Sure, more is always better, but unless you are using professional applications, you'll have a hard time finding a noteworthy difference between performance with 10 GB vs 24 GB. Games won't be an issue, because you'll run out of shading power long before you run out of VRAM, just like with older cards today, which can't handle 4K, no matter how much VRAM they have. Next-gen consoles also don't have as much VRAM, so it's hard to image that you'll miss out on any meaningful gaming experience if you have less than 24 GB VRAM. NVIDIA demonstrated several use cases in their reviewer's guide: OctaneRender, DaVinci Resolve and Blender can certainly benefit from more memory, GPU compute applications, too, but these are very niche use cases. I'm not aware of any creators who were stuck and couldn't create, because they ran out of VRAM. On the other hand the RTX 3090 could definitely turn out to be a good alternative to Quadro, or Tesla, unless you need double-precision math (you don't). Pricing of the RTX 3090 is just way too high, and a tough pill to swallow. At a starting price of $1500, it is more than twice as expensive as the RTX 3080, but not nearly twice as fast. MSI asking another $100 on top for their fantastic Gaming X Trio cooler, plus the overclock out of the box doesn't seem that unreasonable to me. We're talking about 6.6% here. The 6% performance increase due to factory OC / higher power limit can almost justify that, with the better cooler it's almost a no-brainer. While an additional 14 GB of GDDR6X memory aren't free, the $1500 base price still doesn't feel right. On the other hand, the card is significantly better than RTX 2080 Ti in every regard, and that sold for well over $1000, too. NVIDIA emphasizes that RTX 3090 is a Titan replacement—Titan RTX launched at $2500, so $1500 must be a steal for the new 3090. Part of the disappointment about the price is that RTX 3080 is so impressive, at such disruptive pricing. If RTX 3080 was $1000, then $1500 wouldn't feel as crazy—I would say $1000 is a fair price for the RTX 3090. Either way, Turing showed us that people are willing to pay up to have the best, and I have no doubt that all RTX 3090 cards will sell out today, just like RTX 3080. Obviously the "Recommended" award in this context is not for the average gamer. Rather it means, if you have that much money to spend, and are looking for a RTX 3090, then you should consider this card.
Let's be clear: the GeForce RTX 3090 is now the fastest GPU around for gaming purposes. It's also mostly overkill for gaming purposes, and at more than twice the price of the RTX 3080, it's very much in the category of GPUs formerly occupied by the Titan brand. If you're the type of gamer who has to have the absolute best, and price isn't an object, this is the new 'best.' For the rest of us, the RTX 3090 might be drool-worthy, but it's arguably of more interest to content creators who can benefit from the added performance and memory. We didn't specifically test any workloads where a 10GB card simply failed, but it's possible to find them — not so much in games, but in professional apps. We also weren't able to test 8K (or simulated 8K) yet, though some early results show that it's definitely possible to get the 3080 into a state where performance plummets. If you want to play on an 8K TV, the 3090 with its 24GB VRAM will be a better experience than the 3080. How many people fall into that bracket of gamers? Not many, but then again, $300 more than the previous generation RTX 2080 Ti likely isn't going to dissuade those with deep pockets. Back to the content creation bit, while gaming performance at 4K ultra was typically 10-15% faster with the 3090 than the 3080, and up to 20% faster in a few cases, performance in several professional applications was consistently 20-30% faster — Blender, Octane, and Vray all fall into this group. Considering such applications usually fall into the category of "time is money," the RTX 3090 could very well pay for itself in short order compared to the 3080 for such use cases. And compared to an RTX 2080 Ti or Titan RTX? It's not even close. The RTX 3090 often delivered more than double the rendering performance of the previous generation in Blender, and 50-90% better performance in Octane and Vray. The bottom line is that the RTX 3090 is the new high-end gaming champion, delivering truly next-gen performance without a massive price increase. If you've been sitting on a GTX 1080 Ti or lower, waiting for a good time to upgrade, that time has arrived. The only remaining question is just how competitive AMD's RX 6000, aka Big Navi, will be. Even with 80 CUs, on paper, it looks like Nvidia's RTX 3090 may trump the top Navi 2x cards, thanks to GDDR6X and the doubling down on FP32 capability. AMD might offer 16GB of memory, but it's going to be paired with a 256-bit bus and clocked quite a bit lower than 19 Gbps, which may limit performance.
A whole bunch of Bannerlord tips and tricks you may not know (as of version e.1.5.1)
Bannerlord is a great game that is currently plagued by some serious issues, from glitches and bugs to simply not bothering to explain its own mechanics. Without any mitigation or forewarning, these little problems can really snowball and ruin your experience. I've compiled this list of tips and tricks to help other players get around some of these problems and also to maximise your fun while the game remains in early access.
I've separated everything up into categories so that you don't have to dig through too much to get to the stuff you're interested in. Also, stuff that's relevant to new players only is marked with a [NP] in front of it, so you can skip that if you already know the basics.
Edit: Wow, I hit the 40000 character limit so now I have to add more tips as comments instead!
How Stats, Skills and Perks work
[NP] Your character's progression consists of increasing stats, skills, focus, perks and levels. Stats govern your base aptitude in a set of three skills. For example, the Vigor stat affects your aptitude with one-handed, two-handed and polearm skills. Skills represent your ability with that particular skill. For example, the Bow skill affects your aim with the bow and the Steward skill directly affects how many members you can have in your party. Perks are essentially special abilities that are awarded at specific skill levels, e.g. 25, 50, 75 and 100. Sometimes you will get to choose between two perk options. Make sure you check whether a perk is implemented before you choose that perk! (See paragraph below) Lastly, focus points allow you to increase your max skill level with a skill and also provide an exp multiplier, making you gain skill points faster. Note that if you try to train a skill that's reached its limit, it will grow very slowly and eventually stop growing altogether. Thus, you need a constant investment of both stats and focus points to max out a skill. Since your stat and focus points are limited, I suggest you prioritize only a few skills to max out, and accept that the rest will never be fully completed.
[NP]In the character creation screen, the various skills are grouped by stats (in bold, above the individual skills) and each specific skill can have up to 5 focus points assigned (the vertical bars). Each skill you can learn is limited to a max number which is determined by the combination of stat and focus points you have for that skill. With full focus (5 bars), you will need about 6-8 stat points in a skill to allow you to completely max it out. Furthermore, the perks available for each skill are only partially implemented. This means that investing points into some skills is currently useless. To see which perks are implemented, I recommend using a site like https://www.bannerlordperks.com. At the time of writing this post, the entire "Cunning" stat has zero perks implemented, making it virtually useless to you. If you're new, I highly recommend getting points in Social, Vigor and Endurance. Social (specifically the charm skill) allows you to convince nobles to marry/join you more easily and improves your troops' morale (leadership skill). Vigor is your basic melee combat stat, which you will use a lot in the early game and especially in the arena. Lastly, endurance allows you to improve your movement speed (riding/athletics) and is necessary for smithing (skill), which is a really useful mechanic that I highly recommend you try. Another good choice is Control, if you wish to be a ranged character.
So how does leveling work in Bannerlord? Well here's what the Skills screen looks like using the character (C) menu Using skills with slowly increase your ability with them. The more focus points you have in a skill, the faster it's skill points will go up. Furthermore, your character will gain "exp" every time he/she gains skill points. Or more accurately, exp in this game IS skill points. That is to say, training the various skills is the only way to level up. NOT killing enemies, as you might have first thought. This means you can level up just by trading, smithing, running around, or leading armies. You don't even need to fight simulated battles mostly, though doing so will award you with tactics points and some combat skill points. Every level you gain will award you with either a stat point, a focus point, or both. You can spend these points to increase the relevant stat or skill focus bar. When you have points to assign, they will show up on your character screen. In the earlier screenshot is your NPC brother who you always start with, though his name and appearance is randomized. Because I chose the "assign perks myself" option, I can choose his perks right away (represented by little numbered shield icons next to his skills that tell you how many perks are available to choose). You'll note that to the left and right of the "Skills" table there are weird icons with the number 0 next to them. The left number represents stat points to assign, and the right number is focus points. Your new character will start with 1 free focus point to assign. To assign a focus point, select the desired skill and click the "+" sign. REMEMBER: No choices will be saved unless you click "Done", and you can revert all changes made so far by clicking the curved arrow between "Done" and "Cancel". To assign perks, click on the shield icons in the banner in the middle of the skill page and a popup will appear. Click on the perk you wish to choose - again making sure it's actually implemented first - and then when finished click "Done" to finalize your choices. Don't forget that you can use the left/right arrows to assign skills and perks for your NPCs too!
One more thing about perks. The "Governor" perks DO NOT APPLY to your character, because you can't be the governor of any of your cities/castles. Thus, don't pick governor perks for your main hero unless they also come with side-abilities that you want.
Starting the Game and the Main Storyline
[NP] The various factions each come with a special ability. You can use all troops from all factions, so don't worry about being shoehorned into any particular troop type by your choices. Instead, focus on the ability you'll get. Not all abilities are made equal and not all factions are equal either. Currently, the Khuzait faction is kind of OP due to the AI being too dumb to figure out how to handle horse archers, so select them for an easier early-game. Vlandia gets bonus troop exp, which means you can promote veteran troops faster than others. Empire skills are building-focused, which means you need to own fiefs to really gain any benefit from using them. Sturgia are... faster in snow. Also their troops are supposedly weaker than normal (this will eventually change), so pick Sturgia if you're a masochist. Battania are kind of situational with their forest boost (so maybe don't pick them either), and Aserai get trading bonuses, so pick them if you want to be a merchant or just like money.
[NP] Clicking the various family options will show you the potential change in stat points and focus points that you will gain for that choice. You will have about 7 different choices to make before your character is ready to play. Try to pick choices which focus on your ideal stats and skills while minimizing the other ones. Here's a sample character I generated using the stats I recommended earlier. Don't worry too much about making perfect choices here, since you will gain many more stat and focus points throughout your game too. Plus, you'll use most of the stats/skills at one point or another. After this, your brother will ask if you want to do the tutorial. The tutorial only teaches you how to fight, so if you already know that you can skip it.
If you follow the story you will play through a storyline quest for a while until you've rescued your siblings and experienced the execution mechanic in action. Then you will have to chase down a bunch of clan leaders and lie to two special characters who will never interact with you again once you've made your final choice. However, and this is something I want to emphasize heavily: You do NOT need to make a choice about what to do with the dragon banner immediately. In fact, I strongly recommend you do NOT make a decision until you're very well situated in the game. Why? Because it starts a doomsday timer that you cannot slow down or affect in any way, and when it runs out 3 factions will declare war on you all at once and try to grind your entire faction into the dust. Instead, forget about the story quest and just enjoy the game at that point until you are extra powerful and ready to take on the world. Once you succeed at that quest I'm pretty sure you win the game, and if you start it before you're ready you'll be in for a world of hurt.
The Campaign Map
The game has a really useful feature called the "Encyclopedia". Press 'N' to open it when in the campaign screen. If you want to track down a notable figure, you can search their name or clan in the search bar and it will tell you where they were last seen. Anytime you speak to another noble or visit a settlement, town or castle, it will update the rumours of where that noble was seen most recently. This will allow you to track down anyone with ease. You can also see if they were taken prisoner, got pregnant, or switched allegiances recently. Furthermore, you can use the Encyclopedia to check nobles' relations with you or each other, allowing you to single out the nobles who hate their liege and are ripe for conversion to your kingdom. You can also use the encyclopedia to check troop upgrade paths, details about cities/settlements, and info on minor factions, who are like secret clans that you can recruit if you choose to be your own kingdom. All in all, it's incredibly useful for planning your next move.
There's a circle next to city/settlement names in the overworld and the encyclopedia. Clicking that circle "bookmarks" the city/settlement, which means you can easily find it on the map. Clicking it again removes the bookmark.
[NP] If you hover over any of the symbols at the bottom right-hand corner of the screen, you can get detailed info on how the values are calculated. The symbols are, from left to right, money, influence, HP, troops, food and morale. The money icon will show you your daily income vs daily expenses. Influence will show your influence gain/loss over time. HP is your own health and recovery rate. Troops shows what troops you have in your army. Food shows how much food you have and morale shows what's affecting the mood of your soldiers. Using these icons helps you figure out what you need to do to make their values go up instead of down.
Fighting Battles
Against minor enemies like looters, it's usually relatively safe to use "Send Troops" instead of going in there yourself. You won't gain tactics skill from this, but your troops will gain all the exp instantly instead of spending 5 minutes fighting first.
[NP] You can issue commands to your troops by using the F keys. F1 is the movement menu, F2 is the direction menu, F3 is the formation menu, F4 is whether or not to use ranged weapons, F5 is mount/dismount for cavalry, F6 enables AI control, and F7 allows you to split your groups up and assign the split members to other groups. (e.g. split infantry and assign half to "heavy infantry"). You can also use the number keys (i.e. 1,2,3 etc) to select specific groups of troops to give orders to. 1 is infantry, 2 is archers, 3 is melee cavalry etc. Any non-mapped number selects all troops. This allows you to have fine-grained control during combat. HOWEVER for the most part the numbers and relative experience of the two armies is the deciding factor in how a battle goes. Sometimes you can use the terrain to your advantage, but mostly your tactics will do very little to actually affect the battle's outcome, especially in sieges where taking control of the AI will completely break their ability to use siege equipment and attack or defend properly.
Some basic strategies for manually commanding troops during simulated battles are as follows:
The lazy way: Immediately press 0 and then F6 at the start of a battle. Your troops will do their own thing and you can just run/ride around increasing your combat skills without having to worry about managing battles.
The terrain way: Place infantry in front of your archers and put your archers on high ground. The archers will pick off lots of enemy troops before their infantry get close enough to do any damage, and your infantry will protect the archers when the troops finally do arrive.
The big brain way: Research your opponents' army composition and culture by riding close (but not too close!) to their army to scout them. For example, Sturgians generally will have lots of shield infantry while Battania will have a lot of ranged folks. Figure out the counter infantry type (e.g. for shielded infantry it's heavy 2-handed weapon infantry. For heavy 2-handed infantry it's archers. For cavalry it's spear-throwers. For archers it's cavalry, etc) and fill your army with those units. Engage in wholesale slaughter. Note: This works best when you have a fief garrison you can switch veteran troops in and out of, because rookies get rekt even with a "type" advantage.
The OP way: Get just zillions of horse archers, select them at the start of the battle and press F6. The horse archers will run up to the enemy, fill them with arrows, then run away again and repeat. Currently there's no really effective AI counter to this and they will just bleed troops while you sit there wondering why you're even there.
The "No 'I' in team" way: If you're helping another noble in combat, their troops will automatically be on F6 mode. And you can't do anything about it, either. If you don't want their troops to get completely wiped out, it's best to set yours to AI mode (0 then F6) too. Otherwise they WILL charge the enemy archer wall with their 15 sturgian recruits...
The "Actually, my troops are more valuable" way: Conversely, if you are helping a noble but don't actually need their troops to win (i.e. you have a huge numbers advantage), don't auto send your troops and use whatever your usual strat is. They'll get wiped out but at least you won't lose your precious troops!
You can cheese simulated battles by abusing the "Retreat" command. Hold "Tab" to bring up the stats menu, and press middle mouse button to get your cursor back. Then you can click "Retreat" to teleport your entire army safely out of the battle. Then you can restart the battle with the number of troops remaining from before, but both armies are placed far away from each other again. Combine this with a lot of archers, and you can whittle the enemy numbers down before they reach your army and then simply retreat and start over again until the odds are solidly in your favour. This lets you overcome basically any odds so long as you ensure your opponent takes more losses than you do each time.
Levelling up your troops can be tricky as the experience system isn't very clear as to what gives the best troop exp. However, the following things seem to work fairly well: * Some of the Leadership perks grant lots of free exp over time. In particular, Raise the Meek will rapidly turn all of your lowest-level troops into higher-level ones over time, and the level 225 one, Companions, basically gives you the Vlandian empire troop exp bonus, which stacks with actually being Vlandian * Steamrolling fat groups of looters using "Send Troops" is relatively safe and usually awards a handful of troop upgrades each time * Beating nobles' armies when you have about a 2:1 ratio of your troops to theirs is also usually pretty safe and the higher-level troops they have with them yield much more exp * Winning a siege will be extremely costly in terms of deaths, but the troops who survive will gain tons of experience. Defending a siege will be less costly due to having the home turf advantage, but it's harder to engineer those to occur * Doing hideout raids and taking along a group of only archers is a great way to level up those 9 archers, so long as you don't aggro the entire hideout at once. Just make sure you use F4 frequently to enable/disable "Fire at will" or they WILL try to shoot bandits at the other end of the map and summon the wrath of god down on you * Keep your troop morale high by buying lots of different varieties of food. I'm not sure if morale is fully implemented yet, but you won't have the awkward issue of your troops all running from a difficult battle at least
Building your Clan
[NP] Your clan has a ranking in the clan screen (press L), shown at the top right. Earning renown increases this ranking, and every new level adds more soldiers to your armies and other useful clan perks to your arsenal. Max clan rank is 6, but you won't get there for a very long time. The easiest way to gain renown is through winning large battles, so battling lots will quickly raise that renown score.
The game doesn't tell you this anywhere, but you can have your family join your party by visiting them in whatever city they are hiding in and talking to them (or left-clicking their portrait in that city). Your brother in particular is basically a veteran soldier right from the start of the game, so adding him to your party will give you a huge early-game boost. His high steward score also increases your party size by a lot, so having him around lets you field more soldiers until your own steward score catches up. Later on, set him up as governor of your best city/settlement to give it a huge boost.
You can recruit companions at taverns in major cities. Not all companions are created equally, so I recommend using a companion guide to figure out which ones have skills that you want. You can also manually check their skills by right clicking the character's portrait from the city screen or searching them in the encyclopedia. That way you'll know what they are good and bad at before you go through the long dialogue with them. I personally find the tacticians/stewards most valuable as you can make them lead armies for you (more on that in a bit), and the ones with high trade are helpful because you can create caravans with them for bonus income during peacetime. You can only recruit your clan level +1 companions at a time, (e.g. 2 at clan level 1). This means you should be very picky about who you hire.
If you have joined a kingdom (or started your own), you can persuade other factions' nobles to betray their current faction and join yours. For this you need three things: High charm, luck and money. Save your game. Speak to the noble and say you have something to discuss. Ask about their liege. This will lead to a skill challenge where you have to get 4 successes in 4 attempts (either 100% successes or at least 1 critical success). This is entirely RNG, so choose the highest % options and pray. Or load back a lot. If they hate their monarch you'll have a very high chance of succeeding in at least 1 of the 4 challenges. Once you've successfully convinced them, you then need to bribe them. The bribe usually is about 100k denars, but can go all the way to more than a million denars if they own lots of land (because your team gets the fiefs too when they convert). Unless you're insanely rich, use the encyclopedia to find the poorest, most disenfranchised nobles and you'll discover that you might be able to pay them even a single denar and they'll happily convert. Beware, others can convert YOUR allies too, so try to make sure you give every noble at least one castle to keep them happy and on your side. Also if you save a lot and see the message that a noble has left your kingdom, you can load back and often they won't leave the second time.
If you release a noble whom you beat in combat instead of taking them prisoner, you will get a 6-7 point relationship increase with everyone in that noble's clan. Doing this is an excellent way to butter them up for future conversion to your kingdom.
Convert the head of a clan to your kingdom and their entire clan will also convert along with them!
You can use your influence points to put policies in place that suit you before adding others to the clan. In the Kingdom menu (K), you can go to the policy tab and scroll through the various policies there. Basically, most policies either benefit only the ruler, benefit only the vassals, or adjust your kingdom's rates (e.g. tax rate and growth rate). If you're going to start your own kingdom, take this chance to vote in all the royalty-favouring policies before you add people who disagree with you. Conversely, if you're a vassal, you want to add more vassals to the clan and THEN vote in all the vassal-favouring policies. Both of these strategies will not only increase your influence gain rate, but also make it much harder for a rogue AI to steal powecities from you later on in the game. It will also prevent you from getting disliked by other nobles from voting against their wishes since they won't even be in your kingdom yet.
As a male character, you can marry a noble to have her join your clan. I'm not sure if it's the reverse situation for female heroes or not (i.e. you join their clan). This provides two main benefits. One, you gain another party member to bring along in battle, and two, you can make babies (heirs) who will inherit your stuff if/when your character dies. If you end up playing for enough time you can also eventually add those heirs to your party once they've grown up enough. To woo a noble, simply profess your love to them then return and visit them a few times. You'll have to pass charm checks to woo them properly, so as always, save beforehand! Eventually they'll tell you to talk to the clan leader, and then you'll barter for their hand in marriage. Usually it's pretty cheap.
Kingdom/Clan Management
Did you know that war declarations can be avoided (by sort of cheating)? If you save often and then suddenly get war declared on you (or by your kingdom on someone else), just load back to that save. It's a (low) random chance for war to be declared so there's a strong likelihood that the next time you get to that point in time literally nothing will happen. This allows you to avoid all wars that you don't want! Since the game AI is so bad right now, sometimes this is the only way to save your kingdom from utter annihilation.
You can equip the companions in your party with awesome gear too! This took me 40 hours to realize, but on the Inventory (I) or trade screens, there are arrows at the top that let you select a different character to equip. This works with the Character (C) screen too, allowing you to assign perks or stats/skills to your companions.
In your clan management screen (L), under the parties tab, you can assign your companions to various roles within your party. Generally, this causes the game to act as if your own skill with that particular role is the same level as the assigned companion. For example, if you assign a companion with 80 medicine skill as surgeon, the game will cause you and your troops to heal as if you had 80 medicine skill. Keep in mind that if you don't assign a party member to a role then you will gain the exp for doing that role. In other words, it's a trade-off between gaining free experience and having your party be more effective on the campaign map. The one role in your party you definitely don't want to assign a companion to is Quartermaster, because that trains the Steward skill which you want to raise as high as possible.
You can create separate parties under your clan management screen's "Parties" tab. This allows you to send companions off to raise armies and gain exp all on their own without your intervention. You can also assign them to their own personal role within that party (even the Quartermaster role!) for bonus exp and it won't affect your own exp. Parties have three major benefits that make them very useful. Firstly, they will recruit their own troops for you! The max party size is dependent on the companion's steward skill and your clan rank. This means that with enough time you can create an allied party that's virtually equal in size to your own army. Secondly, those parties can be summoned to your army on a whim (click the flag icon down the bottom right of the screen - you must be in a kingdom to do this) and it costs 0 influence! Thirdly, the parties automatically will go around fighting battles for you and increasing your own influence and reputation. I highly recommend creating at least a few parties. There's a few downsides to be aware of, however. Firstly, you pay all the troop wages for the other parties. This can get VERY expensive if you're not at war and constantly defeating armies for money. Secondly, like any roaming entity, your companions can get attacked and captured by enemy armies. If that happens, you have to wait for them to escape or be ransomed and then track them down in whichever city they end up in to reclaim your companion. This can be very annoying. Lastly, if you're a vassal, your liege can actually summon your companions to their army, thereby using your hard-earned troops for their own personal gain! That's the price of being a vassal though.
Sometimes you cannot assign roles to party members through the clan screen. This tends to happen if you assign a companion to a role and they die in battle. If this happens, instead select them in the party screen (P) and talk to them. You can assign them roles from the conversation menu instead.
Making Money
[NP] In the early-game you will find the tournaments in city arenas to be almost impossible to win. However, with the power of save/load and determination, you can win big in tournaments by betting on yourself every round. If you win the tournament, not only will you get a sweet prize but you will also be several thousand denars richer. At least until your reputation catches up to you and they start offering less and less money for your bets.
The best way to make money in Bannerlord is smithing (once you've unlocked enough recipes and have about 140 smithing skill). Early on, the stuff you produce is worthless, but as you start making tier 4 and higher weapons you will discover combinations that create weapons work up to 100k denars in value! Make a handful of these and you can go around from city to city, buying up all the expensive armor while still walking away with 20k+ more denars each time. There are many guides to smithing that can be found elsewhere, but here's a few minor tips:
Try not to sell anything you make that's worth less than 10k denars. Otherwise you will encounter these items as arena prizes which will generally make it harder to get the rare arena prizes (e.g. special horses and armour). Instead, smelt it down.
2h swords and javelins seem to be a great money maker once you hit T4+
Smelt the weapons you loot from battles if you need the materials for smithing. Even worthless rusty iron spathas can be broken down into huge amounts of valuable materials.
No matter how many days pass from traveling, none of that will allow you to be able to smelt again once you've hit the limit. This means that even if you come back 3 months later, if you haven't rested in any villages or settlements in that time, you will not be able to continue smelting. You MUST click "Wait here for a while" and just sit around for a day or so to get all of your smithing stamina back.
Smithed weapons are not necessarily better than the ones you can buy. Sometimes they will be, but smithing mostly gives you the ability to trade off damage types and attack speed on weapons. For example, you can increase a sword's length and swing damage but it will reduce it's swing speed and thrust. In other words, smithing is useful for making very specialized weapons, but not for making some OP magical sword of head-lopping.
The second-best way to make money is by thrashing other nobles in combat. If you're at war, target every enemy noble you see whom you can easily beat and trounce them. Not only do you get money and items for beating them, you can also ransom them at taverns for even more money. You also get money when you capture cities in sieges. Naturally, when you're at peace, you'll find it much harder to make money this way.
You can purchase workshops in cities and have them produce goods for a small profit (around 75-125 denars per day). It generally costs about 13k denars to buy a workshop, so it won't become profitable for approximately 140 days. Because of this, if you wish to use workshops you should select cities which you are unlikely to be at war with for a long time (e.g. your own faction's cities!). After all, if you end up at war with a faction, all of your workshops in that faction are stolen from you. To buy a workshop you must physically walk around town. If you hold alt you will see three semi-random workshops throughout the city (e.g. wine press, brewery, smithy). If you walk to one of these shops during the day you will find NPCs loitering around nearby called "Shop Worker". Talk to the shop worker and tell them you want to purchase the workshop.
To decide which workshops to build in which city, examine the fiefs which feed into that city. You can also use a workshop guide, but I find these aren't always correct due to frequent patches. The bottom line is this: Pick a city which has at least one source of workshop materials (e.g. grain, sheep, hardwood) in its settlements. More than one source is even better. Next, buy a workshop and select the type that uses that material. For example, grain is used by breweries, and wood is used by a wood workshop etc. Then, you wait. You can check the workshop's profitability from the clan tab (L), but remember, don't expect it to become super profitable anytime soon. These are long-term investments.
Another way to make money is caravans. Caravans are more profitable than workshops, but come with significant risk, especially if you're at war with anyone. Basically, you assign a companion to manage a caravan (which costs 15000-25000 denars to make depending on the troops you assign), and the caravan will travel from city to city buying and selling goods. Companions with high Trade skills are essential here. While travelling, the caravans can be attacked by looters, bandits, and worst, enemy armies. If the caravan is captured, you'll have to go rescue your companion or wait for them to be released. Then you'll have to spend another 15-25k to get the caravan going again. Basically, don't do this if you're a warmonger. Anyway, to form a caravan, talk to any merchant in a city and choose the "I want to form a caravan in this city" option. Caravans will net you varying amounts of money, and the income will not be every day, but in my experience they are more profitable than workshops and much more annoying to keep track of.
If you have a high trade skill, instead of making caravans you can be a caravan. Load up on sumpter horses which increase your max load, and then use trade rumours (talk to civilians hanging out in town markets) to determine the best places to buy and sell stuff. Buy low, travel, sell high. If you make 30 denars per sale and sell 100 trade items, that's 3k of profit. If you make 100 denars per sale, that's 30k profit! Again, keep in mind that cities generally only keep 20k-30k denars on them at a time, so if you take too many goods you will not be able to sell them all.
Siege Warfare
Holding the alt key highlights both important people and weapons that are lying around. You can use this during sieges to replenish ranged ammo and locate nearby interactible things.
You can use the siege weapons that your army/city has built. This will train your throwing skill and also open some neat opportunities. For example, you can use catapults to smash siege towers! It takes 4 hits to achieve but boy is it worth it!
Catapults and trebuchets can be aimed left and right but also have a red gauge on the side which affects the distance that your shots travel. You can change this bar using W/S to choose how close or far to shoot. Generally you want the distance to be less than half the red bar because your targets are a lot closer than the range on the siege engines.
When defending a city you will notice piles of rocks (called merlons) lying around upstairs in the gatehouse. You can take these rocks and drop them on enemy troops for massive damage (400+). You can also use them to smash the battering ram with a few good throws, thereby protecting your gates.
You can place your troops before a siege by pressing the numbers (e.g. 1 for infantry) and then clicking where you want them to go. However they just run back to where the AI would have put them anyway, so it's not worth it right now. But someday it might actually work as intended!
Is the castle you were staying in being beseiged by overwhelming numbers? You can sally forth to attack, use archers to pick some troops off, and then retreat from battle before their enormous army starts hacking your party apart. Repeat this about a dozen times and you'll have a much more manageable enemy to fight, with very few casualties on your side. For the love of god though save before you try this. Also note that, due to a bug, when you sally out of the castle you'll be plonked onto the overworld map when you retreat and won't be able to get back in without sacrificing troops.
Misc
Save often. Make multiple save files so that you can jump back in time up to half a year if need be. Sometimes bad decisions (e.g. a war with a much stronger faction) take a long time to bite you in the ass.
Buy lots of (non-sumpter) horses. As long as you have at least a 1:1 horse to troop ratio, your campaign movement speed will be hugely increased, allowing you to chase and catch foes must more easily.
Although the tutorial teaches you to buy grain, don't just buy grain. Instead, buy even amounts of every food you can find. That means grain, dates, beer, cheese, butter, oil, meat, fish etc. This will do two things: Grant you huge amounts of Quartermaster exp every day, and also keep your troop morale maxed out, meaning they won't run like cowards from a difficult fight
If you can get your leadership to 125, you can unlock the "Disciplinarian" perk. This allows you to promote bandits into regular military units, which at the minimum makes them as useful as recruits. Some bandits, however, can become very powerful military units, such as bushwhackers, freebooters and forest bandits turning into the much-beloved Battanian Fian Champions!
THINGS NOT TO DO
Don't give anyone the dragon banner before you're ready to fight the whole world. That also applies to founding your own kingdom by completing the relevant quest.
Don't put companions in the Quartermaster role of your party. Otherwise you deprive yourself of an easy way to gain Steward exp, which increases your troop size.
Don't buy workshops in cities you plan on warring with anytime soon, because once war is declared you automatically lose those workshops.
Don't make caravans if you want to go to war a lot. The enemy nobles will target your caravans mercilessly.
Don't leave siege weapons you've built out in the open to get destroyed one by one. Instead, click on the weapon immediately once it's finished and choose "Send to reserve". Once you have 4 weapons built, place them all simultaneously and watch the mayhem unfold!
Don't fight battles where your army strengths are similar (unless it's really important to do so e.g. you're defending your own fiefs against a siege). You will lose a lot of good troops this way, and if you instead fight easy battles you'll get way more rewards with way less casualties in the long run.
Don't execute nobles unless you want to make the game harder on yourself. They breed like rabbits and everyone hates you when you execute someone. Plus there's a good chance they'll execute you too if they capture you in a fight after that. Releasing other nobles grants the most benefit to you by far, even if it's not as satisfying.
And... that's it for now! I'm sure I forgot some tips but I'll edit them in as I remember. At the very least it should open up some new gameplay avenues for some people, and maybe make things a little less stupid for others. If you made it to the end of this very long post: well done!
So, I did some posts on team buildings to give tips on what teams to build and lately I have been getting some requests on team building and how to build your team both through the topic and by direct messages. I will just say upfront that I have only been playing the OBT for a few days and then played since launch so my knowledge is mostly from in game testing and what I have gathered from reading around a bit. This post is towards ppl who wants to increase their damage and/or get some tips on what teams to build, who to build and a bit about what to gear. This is not to be seen as an in-depth guide and I apologize if I give wrong information in any way, shape or form here. To start of I’ll briefly go over some gear choices and my own opinion on these. Since this guide is mostly geared towards these early stages and things that are fairly reasonable for everyone to get. I will only touch on 3-star gear and the 4-star weapons you get/craft for free in game, since pretty much everyone will get these, the 3 star weapons are gacha gated but I am pretty sure everyone who has done the gacha will get these at least a couple of times.
Part 1 gear
Catalysts: 3-stars: Magic Guide: This catalyst is great for Lisa or Mona since it increases dmg against targets inflicted with hydro or electro status by a flat amount and since each of their basic attacks inflicts this every time, they hit an enemy that means the dmg bonus is always active for them while attacking. So even though it has lower base stats then 4- or 5-star catalysts it’s passive for hydro/electro casters makes them deal a ton of dmg and should not be underestimated. Thrilling Tales of Dragon Slayers: Now this one is quite the beast and might be usable for a long time. What it does is that when you switch characters the character switched to gets an atk % increase for 10 seconds, it can only occur once every 20 seconds but it can occur for any character switched. So, it doesn’t only affect the one wearing the Catalyst, it also increases hp % as it’s secondary, it is in my humble opinion one of the best catalysts to put on Barbara and one of the reasons I also strongly recommend bringing her to your team. I highly recommend refining this to 5 asap, if possible and you want to bring Barbara on your team. 4-stars: Prototype Malice: This is a fairly good weapon to put on Barbara for instance however it’s passive only activates when the ultimate is used and thus it won’t see as much use as the Thrilling Tales. Mappa Mare: This is probably your best catalyst on any catalyst user that is your main damage dealer, unless your using Lisa or Mona and your Magic Guide is refined to rank 5, even then eventually Mappa Mare will be the better choice once it’s refined enough. Triggering an elemental combo will increase your elemental dmg by a % and it stacks twice and lasts for 10 seconds however it doesn't have a cd so if you just keep them combos going, which is fairly easy for a mage character you’ll have your elemental dmg boost up at all time. Bows: 3-stars: Slingshot: This bow has a massive dmg increase for anyone using their bow users in close range, while decreasing the dmg at long range. Slingshot in short makes you use your bow user like a melee character and the dmg boost it gives is well worth sticking in melee range. 4-stars: Prototype Crescent: This bow is probably one of the strongest among when it’s passive is active with a massive boost to attack and a movement speed boost. However, it only procs when a weak point is hit, all enemies have a weak point and if it's not obviously pointed out in almost all cases it will be their head in that case. When your able to hit enemies weak pointsit is quite the beast this is however fairly hard to do while in combat. Compound Bow: This is probably your best bet for a bow outside of the Slingshot since normal attacks or aimed shots will that hit will increase your atk and atk speed by a % and stacks up to four times for 6 seconds, but you can refresh it over and over. Slingshot hold the higher dmg but requires you to stay in melee range or do less dmg, this bow can be used at any range. Spears: 3-stars: White Tassel: This spear is good if your using mainly basic attacks, which you should be doing with most physical users, what it does is increase the dmg of all your basic attacks. Halberd: This one is my recommendation amongst the 3-star spears since while White Tassel in theory will do more dmg in most cases you will not be able to hit the enemy at all time and therefore the big extra dmg attack Halberd does every 10 seconds will probably give you more bang for your buck. Xiangling’s skills also scales of her atk thus a higher base stat in atk and a secondary that gives an atk % increase helps more especially if she’s used as a support. 4-stars Prototype Grudge: I would not recommend this spear at the moment since Xiangling is the only spear user and it’s buff that activates on elemental skill use lasts for 12 sec but Xiangling’s skill cd is also 12 sec so it’s pretty much impossible to get 2 stacks of it going unless your using cd reductions which can be done by bringing two anemo characters on your team. Its secondary stat is also energy recharge which is not that great if used on your main dmg dealer. Crescent Pike: Is probably your best bet outside of the Halberd since you will be picking up elemental orbs/particles fairly often and the dmg % increase to normal/charged attacks for 5 seconds is pretty good. It’s base stats coupled with it’s secondary stats will mean your physical attacks will deal more dmg then with the Halberd which is great for a main dmg dealer, however this will not increase the effectiveness of Xiangling’s skills and thus is not a good choice if using her as a support. Swords: 3-stars: Harbringer of Dawn: This sword has a lot of dmg potential being able to increase both your crit dmg and crit chance by a large amount. However, it requires your hp to be above 90% for you to get the crit chance bonus. This means all your attacks will deal a ton of dmg as long as you keep your hp high. Fillet blade: This will be a much safer bet as it has a secondary stat that increases atk and every attack has a 50% chance to deal a massive bonus dmg attack but it can only occur every 15 seconds. Personally, this is one of my favourite passive effects since most of the time your not able to attack over and over and instead you will get a few hits in and then dodge to attack again. 4-stars: Prototype Rancour: This is probably your best bet if your using your sword user as a physical attacker and your main damage dealer. Simply hitting with normal/charged attacks will increase you atk and def and its secondary stat increases your physical dmg. Iron Sting: This sword requires you to deal elemental dmg to start stacking dmg % increases its secondary stat also increases your elemental combo dmg overall this will not be as good as the Rancour most of the time, though if you’re not using your sword wielder to deal physical dmg, Iron Sting will probably be a better choice Claymores: 3-stars: Skyrider Greatsword: This one increases your atk by a % up to four times on normal/charged attacks it also increases your physical attack as your secondary stat which means it is a great choice for anyone using their claymore wielders as their main dmg dealers. Debate Club: This one will probably be your best choice if your elemental skill has a low cd. While it does say it’s cd is 3 seconds between each trigger while using Diluc you can use his e once hit + trigger, e again hit + trigger and e again hit + trigger. This might get “nerfed” shortly to have it work as intended. But again this is a great choice for Beidou/RazoChongyun because of their short cd but not so good for Noelle because of her 24 sec cd which means she can't have the buff up att all time. The Skyrider Greatsword overall is the better choice. 4-stars: Prototype Animus: This is probably my favourite weapon when it comes to the 3- or 4-star claymores. Every normal/charged attack has a 50% chance to deal a large bonus dmg attack in a small aoe with a 15 sec cd on its effect and its secondary stat is bonus atk %. I will go a bit more in-depth on this effect in a little bit. Whiteblind: Now this would have been the best choice most likely if it wasn’t for the fact that it’s secondary stat is bonus def %. Like the Rancour this claymore stacks bonus atk/def % while hitting enemies with normal/charged attacks and stacks up to 4 times while lasting for 6 seconds. So while at maxed stacks it’s bonus atk % will be a bit higher then the Animus but it won’t have the bonus dmg trigger. Now on the mentioned Halberd, Fillet Blade and Prototype Animus weapons. How their effects work is that when they trigger on your attacks you will deal your normal attack at let’s say 100 dmg and then a bonus dmg trigger will pop up for an additional 300 dmg. How this dmg is calculated I am honestly unsure since for instance my main dmg dealer using the Animus deals 850ish dmg on a normal attack with a 300% attack dmg boost on the weapon will deal 850 + 2000 dmg with no gear it would be 381 + 998. But while testing the Fillet Blade my sword user with the Fillet Blade who deals 60 dmg on normal attacks with a 240% attack dmg boost will deal 60 + 390 dmg another sword user would deal 10 + 50 dmg. Doing another test with a weaker 2h wielder who deals 120 dmg on normal attacks triggered attack will deal 120 + 500 dmg. The halberd which has an additional 160% dmg boost would give the results of 25 + 98. Of note is that the claymore triggers in a small aoe, the sword on a single target and the spear only on normal attacks but It triggers on anyone hit by that normal attack. The bonus dmg is also able to crit. Most likely it has something to do with the dmg calculation which thus far I am unaware of how it works. Still this trigger works wonders in fights since most often you will not be able to attack at all times so you can actually see it as while dodging your actually “charging” a stronger attack so to speak. Most often while fighting against weak enemies this effect is strong enough to either instantly kill them or leave them with very little health. Artifacts: Here I will only mention some sets to aim for early on that are fairly common (I believe) and what main stats I personally prefer to see on artifacts. Sets: Berserker 2 set +12% crit, 4 set below 70% hp + an additional 24 % crit Marital Artist 2 set normal/charged attacks +15% dmg, 4 set after using elemental skill normal/charged attacks + an additional 25% for 8 sec. Sadly, the only artifact sets I have been getting a ton of so far is Berserker, Martial Artist, Instructor, The Exile, Traveling Doctor, Lucky dog and Adventurer. Of these I only find Berserker, Martial Artist and perhaps The Exile to be of any long-term use. There are some really great sets I’ve gotten a single drop of but again this guide is looking at early to perhaps mid game tips and I won’t dive into all possible sets and combinations. For goblets you’re mainly looking for the type of elemental dmg % your mage is using, physical dmg % for your physical attackers or atk % bonus for use on both.For sands you’re mainly looking for atk % bonus on your dmg dealers, elemental mastery if your using a lot of combos with the character or elemental recharge % if you want to regenerate a lot of elemental orbs/particles to use your elemental burst more often. Atk % is your best bet early on. For circlets you’re mainly looking for atk % bonus, crit rate % bonus or crit dmg % bonus. Again atk % is best bet early on but crit rate and crit dmg will probably later on be your best source of dmg once you get enough crit rate and crit dmg.
Part 2 who to build
Now on this part I will not go much into particular characters since most people rooster at the moment is fairly varied and frankly it would take too long. Instead I will go over the different weapon and character types. I am someone who is of the firm belief that characters who are useful in as many situations as possible are the best choice therefore for dmg dealers I strongly recommend building a claymore user for your first main dmg dealer, if this is the type of playstyle you like. So why do I prefer claymore users? While swords, spears, catalysts and bows attacks faster than the claymore they pack a bigger umph and also attacks in a very broad spectrum every attack a claymore does is almost a small aoe attack in itself. This makes it easier to hit multiple enemies with each swing they do have the weakness of slower attacks and in certain situations getting attacked too often will make you think about changing weapon, though the charge attack will let you attack over and over in quick successions after a short wind-up. However, this part is pretty much up to preference, what really makes me prefer claymores are as mentioned their overall usage. While out and about claymores will be able to destroy mining nodes and rocks in a matter of seconds there are also enemies with geo shields/armour that only claymores have a great effect against, these enemies become fairly common in Liyue and their commonness is what makes me like claymore characters especially. Catalysts also has the advantage of being great in certain puzzles and against enemies with elemental shields same with bows against flying enemies or enemies with weak spots. Swords and spears on the other hand does not have any enemy or place in the game their extra useful against so far, but hopefully in the future enemies that you have to hit rapidly or something similar appears that will make them shine more, but for now swords and spears have no enemies their especially good or important against. Still remember that you should enjoy the character you are using foremost and this is based on how and with who I like to play. Anyhow overall I suggest your main damage dealer to be a physical attacker to start with. This is because physical attackers will always be useful though they will deal little to no dmg against an enemy with an elemental shield or that only takes dmg from elemental dmg this will disappear once enough elemental dmg is dealt the break their shields most of the time, so far there are no enemy completely immune to physical dmg unless you count the final part of Electro Hypostasis (that I know of) but even then, all physical dmg dealers are able to deal some elemental dmg. Mages on the other hand are only able to deal elemental dmg, so far, certain enemies will therefore be a 100% immune to their dmg if used against enemies/bosses of the same element. So early on physical dmg dealers will have the advantage, mages will probably be the end game choice when used against the right elemental enemy since they get a 50% bonus dmg when used against the right element, for instance hydro vs pyro. Remember to always max out your basic attack talent for your dmg dealers since this will be your main source of dmg and the increase for each lvl is very big. For instance every lvl will increase your dmg by about 3-10% per lvl depending on your character, weapon type and the talents lvl. Outside of your main damage dealer you best bet is to build 1-2 supports and 1-2 healers. You’ll want your main damage dealer to be max lvl and with the best gear possible, your supports and healers mostly won’t need much investments above getting them into about lvl 50 early on and your probably better of building another dmg dealer once you’re at the point where you have a maxed our dmg dealer and the support + healers at lvl 50. I would strongly recommend building the free character Barbara and consider including her into your team, more on this later on, Xiangling is also a free character and a great addition as a support character to most teams. An honourable mention is Fischl though not everyone will have her and Qiqi if your lucky enough to get her is perhaps the best support/healer in the game at the moment.
Part 3 what teams to build
Now to start of I will go fairly in-depth into the free character Barbara just to showcase why I think she is a staple inclusion into almost every team. First of as a catalyst user she can use the catalyst Thrilling Tales of Dragon Slayers, this weapon will give the passive of “when switching characters, the new character taking the field has their ATK increased by 24/30/36/42/48% for 10s. This effect can only occur once every 20s.” this effect works as long as a catalyst user with it equipped is on your team. So what you want to do is start the fight with for instance Barbara active then switch onto your main dmg dealer for the atk % bonus for 10 seconds, you will then have to time your switches so this passive is always active on your main dmg dealer, but once you get used to it the dmg increase is massive, especially since most likely you’ll be able to get to refinement 5 fairly easy. The books secondary stat is also hp % which is what Barbara’s skills scales of. Her skill which gives a persistent over time heal on active character has the weakness of applying the wet status to the active character but what a lot of ppl don’t talk about is that it also deals hydro dmg and applies wet to enemies around the active character as well, this means that if your short on supports or characters to combo with often she can be a great addition by having her skill deal hydro dmg to anyone close to your character which you can then combo with, many times even though it barely deals any dmg with it’s attack it has helped me break hilly mages shields very quickly since it will combo with their shields on it’s own, unless it’s the hydro mage. In short the catalyst I mentioned on its own gives a great boost to any team and for now at least Barbara is mainly the only useful character to put it on who also adds support and healing on her own. So even if you don’t need her healing just the atk % bonus can be a great addition, of course you could bring another catalyst user to put it on. When it comes to physical dmg dealers what I recommend for early game is to trigger the superconduct combo, electro + cryo dmg, this gives a -25% def for 12 seconds on the enemy it triggers on and equals about a +30% dmg boost for all physical attacks. Therefore, you want to keep an electro and cryo unit on your team at all time when using a physical dmg dealer as your main dmg source. Fischl is the best choice for a electro unit since you can just switch to her use e summon bird and it will attack over and over with electro dmg for you, switching to Lisa and doing a single basic attack works as well, having Beidou or Razor as your main dmg dealers is also a choice to bring electro dmg. When it comes to cryo dmg your option is either to use Kaeya and switch him in to use his skill to hit with cryo dmg, Qiqi is the absolute best choice since her skill works similar to Fischl only in short range around you but it also heals you, using Chongyun as your main dmg dealer is also a choice though you’ll have to run out of his field after you’ve used it since it makes you deal cryo dmg instead of physical dmg and it has a fairly long cd compared to Kaeya. If you choose an elemental dmg dealer superconduct is your worst elemental combo to use since it deals a very small amount of bonus dmg and is mostly for its physical defence debuff which does nothing for you. Therefore, you never want to do electro + cryo as your combo. Xiangling is a free character who is also a great addition to almost any team because of her persistent skills that deal pyro dmg. I would almost always recommend at this point of the game to build a team with either two or three of Fischl, Xiangling, Barbara and if your lucky Qiqi because of their persistent effects and synergy with almost everyone. Building teams around the different elemental resonances is also a good choice with double pyro giving your team +25% atk, double geo +15 % dmg while shielded and so on.
Part 4 showcase
Lastly to give an example of what I am using at the moment, I am at AR 31 almost 32 so world lvl is 3 and I have so far cleared every content in the game that I could find, that means every elite/boss available at the moment, every hidden quest + their fights and every dungeon open to me. My main dmg dealer is Diluc but I pretty much use his normal/charged attack 95-99% of the time (mostly the charged attack) so you could pretty much use any claymore weapon user or really any physical dmg dealer for the same or at least if it’s not a claymore user similar effect. Here are some pictures of how he looks at the moment and what gear I have him using. https://imgur.com/a/CfMBFZt At the moment he deals about 850ish dmg on normal attacks and charged attacks deals about 650ish dmg without any buffs or debuffs applied, crits are of course higher and the trigger effect deals an extra 2000-3500 dmg on average depending on if it crits or is a normal/charged attack. With buffs and debuffs the dmg on average is anywhere between 1000-2400 dmg depending on crits or not (and I crit a lot) and if I hit the switch + atk or not with the trigger effects dealing around 3000-7000ish bonus dmg depending on if it crits or not. With this I am able to pretty much kill all normal enemies and some of the elite enemies in a single hit or within a few seconds. I am able to shave of up to 50% of the Regisvine when their in a downed state, most bosses that are incapacitated loses close to 25-50% of their health when their in a downed state, pretty sure this will go down as we move along the game but this is with a max lvl’d character (that can be switched for any other claymore character or physical dmg dealer for similar effect), max lvl’d 4 star weapon that everyone can get and refine to lvl 2 like me, three 3-star artifacts two at +8 and one at +12 and two 4-star artifacts at +12 and to be frank most of the artifacts either have bad or suboptimal secondary stats, lastly his basic attack talent is lvl 4. What I use in combat is pretty much only the superconduct debuff, the thrilling tales switch atk buff (though I still haven't really gotten the timing down) and then very rarely I will use Dilucs skills to deal pyro dmg to combo with Fischl's e skill when I am low on stamina, but I almost never do this since my normal/charged attacks deals more dmg most of the time. Any how this post became quite lengthy and I hope this helps at least someone out there and anyone is free to use this post or the info it contains however they like. I also apologize for any misspellings as english is not my first language and it became quite long at 6-7 pages.
Extra part:
So haven't really seen anyone mentioning this part but upon the 2nd, 3rd and I believe 5th and 6th ascension each character will get a boost in a certain area tied to themselves, in short 1st unlocks a talent, 2nd + 3rd boosts a stat, 4th another talent and I believe 5th + 6th will further boost the stat. I'll add the one's I know of so far and feel free to give info so I can add to the list. These additions are in the long run not game defining but in some cases they can show you towards what kind of stats/builds are most beneficial on your character. Since in some cases I wasn't paying much attention to this while ascending I'll just add the aproximate buff. 5-stars: Diluc: + crit rate, +4,8% crit at 2nd and another +4,8% crit at 3rd total +9,6% at this point, estimated + 19,2% crit rate at max lvl Venti: + energy recharge, +8% energy recharge at 2nd, estimated +32% energy recharge at max lvl Keqing: + crit dmg, +9,6% crit dmg at 2nd, estimated +38,4% crit dmg at max lvl Jean: + healing bonus, +5,5% healing at 2nd, estimated + 22% healing at max lvl Qiqi: + healing bonus, +5,5% healing at 2nd and +5,6% at 3rd total +11,1 % healing at this point estimated +22% healing at max lvl Traveller: + atk, +6% atk at 2nd and +6% atk at 3rd, total 12% atk at this point, estimated +24% atk at max lvl Mona: +unknown (would love someone with mona to tell me what it is and at what % sadly no friend of mine got her :/ ) 4-stars: Barbara: + hp, +6% hp at 2nd and +6% at 3rd total 12 % hp at this point, estimated +24% hp at max lvl. Fischl: + atk, +6% atk at 2nd and +6% atk at 3rd, total 12% atk at this point, estimated +24% atk at max lvl Chongyun: + atk, +6% atk at 2nd and +6% atk at 3rd, total 12% atk at this point, estimated +24% atk at max lvl Razor: + physical dmg, +7.5% at 2nd, estimated + 30% physical dmg at max lvl Ningguan: + geo dmg, numbers unknown (guessed to be same as Razor) Beidou: + electro dmg, numbers unknown (guessed to be same as Razor) Kaeya: + energy recharge, numbers unknown (guessed to be same as Venti) Lisa: + elemental mastery, numbers unknown. Xiangling: + elemental mastery, numbers unknown Amber: + atk, +6% atk at 2nd and +6% atk at 3rd, total 12% atk at this point, estimated +24% atk at max lvl Sucrose: + unknown Xingqiu: + unknown Bennet: + unknown That is the info I have at this time but this does show you a little on what the optimal way to build some of the characters are, for instance Diluc and Keqing will benefit the most from crit rate + crit dmg builds, since they already get + crit rate/crit dmg. Razor is best as a physical dmg dealer and so on. These bonuses are as mentioned not game breaking but sort of like having an extra artifacts main stat on the characters. Edit: While finishing of the marksmanship achievement I found out that hitting enemies in the head count as hitting their weakpoints so I changed my take on the Prototype Crescent bow. Edit: Changed recommendations on the debate club to more be in line with how I intended. Edit: I just noticed not a lot of ppl have talked about the bonus stat each character get so added a part about it.
Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning October 5th, 2020
Good Friday evening to all of you here on StockMarket. I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and is ready for the new trading week ahead. Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning October 5th, 2020.
Trump’s health and fiscal stimulus fight will steer the markets in the week ahead - (Source)
President Donald Trump’s health and the state of a fiscal stimulus package will be the main focus for markets in the coming week. In the early morning hours Friday, President Donald Trump tweeted that he and the first lady tested positive for Covid. Stocks sold off hard, but the S&P 500 came off its lows in Friday trading and closed down just under 1%. It was up 1.5% for the week. The market was helped by signs that a stimulus package is still a possibility, after House Speaker Nancy Pelosi asked airlines not to furlough workers. She promised either a stand alone aid bill, or a bigger negotiated relief legislation that would help the industry. “The market is going to watch health updates from the White House medical staff, and it’s going to watch how the president communicates with the public,” said Julian Emanuel, head of equities and derivatives at BTIG. “Will we see him in person in the next week in any form? What’s his volume of tweets? All as a way to first gauge the severity of the case.” Trump and Melania Trump are reported to have mild cases, but as time goes on the market will turn to how the illness could impact the presidential election. Former Vice President Joe Biden gained slightly in the polls after the first debate Tuesday night, and now the calendar for further debates is in question. The market has seemingly warmed to Biden, and even though he would raise taxes, it is assumed Democrats would quickly pass a major infrastructure package if there is a Democratic sweep of Congress. Trump, however, is widely seen on Wall Street as stronger on the economy and better for markets. “What you’ve done from a campaign perspective, is you’ve taken away the thing that gives him the most energy - his ability to interact with crowds,” said Emanuel. “The president had wanted to paint the economic recovery of the last three or four months as the cornerstone, and this basically puts the virus back as topic number 1, number 2 and number 3. And it’s all the more so because the data is coming in weaker than expected.” The market is fixated on the prospect of stimulus to help business, the unemployed and state and local governments. The House passed a $2.2 trillion package this week, but there is still no agreement with Republicans. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin has pushed for a $1.6 trillion package. “I think there’s an underlying bid under the market because nobody wants to be super short if we get a stimulus approved, but you can’t be too long in case his mild symptoms turn into severe symptoms,” said Scott Redler, partner with T3live.com. “We’re in a tough spot but overall we’re still pretty constructive.” Emanuel said the fact the president is now ill could hurt confidence and slow down some of the improvement in the economy. “The underlying tone is, again, whether its directly or later, there’s going to be stimulus,” Emanuel said. ”’Whether it’s this month or November, this reinforces the need for stimulus because the president falling ill signals to, at the margin, the person whose thinking about going out to dinner to think again. It’s a significant economic and psychological hindrance.” Also coming up in the week ahead is a speech Tuesday by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell to the National Association of Business Economists. Powell is also expected to push for the stimulus package to boost the economy so the recovery does not stall. “I think his whole objective is to try to get Congress and the Administration to sign onto a fiscal rescue package,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics. “He’ll all but come out and say [the recovery] is not a ‘V.’ Without additional support from lawmakers, risks are pretty high that we backtrack. I think that’s the kind of outlook he’s going to give. It’s going to be full-throated.” September’s employment report, released Friday, was seen by some as a warning that the economy is not rebounding as expected. There were 661,000 jobs added in September, well below the 800,000 expected. Besides Powell, there are a half dozen other Fed speakers. There are also minutes from the Fed’s last minute released Wednesday afternoon.
This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:
We've all had versions of this conversation where you or the person you were talking to just couldn't make up their mind. At the end of the day, it only causes trouble and plans are ruined. The market is having its own back and forth this year trying to decide between growth and value. Just today, growth stocks are getting slaughtered while value stocks are up marginally. As an example, the Russell 1000 Growth index is down 1.8% on the day while the Russell 1000 Value index has managed to rally 0.25%. The chart below shows the daily performance spread between the Russell 1000 Growth index and the Russell 1000 Value index for each day in 2020. Today's performance spread between the two indices marks the ninth time this year that value has outperformed growth by more than two percentage points. At the other extreme, there have also been eight trading days where growth outperformed value by more than two percentage points.
So how does this year's frequency of days where the performance spread between the two indices was more than two percentage points stack up to other years? The chart below shows the daily performance spread between the two indices going all the way back to 1990. Over the last thirty years, the only two periods where we saw a frequency of these large daily dislocations was back in 2008 and the period spanning 2000 and 2001. In fact, with 17 days this year where the performance spread between the two indices was greater than two percentage points, the only other years that saw a higher frequency of large dislocations were 2000 (54) and 2001 (28). If you think the market has been indecisive this year, in 2000 we saw these types of daily dislocations an average of once per week.
Election Anxiety Weighs on October Market Performance
October often evokes fear on Wall Street as memories are stirred of crashes in 1929, 1987, the 554-point drop on October 27, 1997, back-to-back massacres in 1978 and 1979, Friday the 13th in 1989 and the 733-point drop on October 15, 2008. During the week ending October 10, 2008, Dow lost 1,874.19 points (18.2%), the worst weekly decline in our database going back to 1901, in percentage terms. March 2020 now holds the dubious honor of producing the worst, second and third worst DJIA weekly point declines. The term “Octoberphobia” has been used to describe the phenomenon of major market drops occurring during the month. Market calamities can become a self-fulfilling prophecy, so stay on the lookout and don’t get whipsawed if it happens. But October has become a turnaround month—a “bear killer” if you will. Twelve post-WWII bear markets have ended in October: 1946, 1957, 1960, 1962, 1966, 1974, 1987, 1990, 1998, 2001, 2002 and 2011 (S&P 500 declined 19.4%). However, eight were midterm bottoms. Over the last 21 years, October’s performance has been solid. Average gains over the last 21-years range from 1.3% by Russell 1000 to 2.4% by NASDAQ. Small caps have still struggled though with Russell 2000 gaining a modest 0.5%
Election-year Octobers rank dead last for Dow, S&P 500 (since 1952), NASDAQ (since 1972), Russell 1000, and Russell 2000 (since 1980). Eliminating gruesome 2008 from the calculation provides a moderate amount of relief, as rankings climb to mid pack. Should a meaningful decline materialize in October it is likely to be an excellent buying opportunity, especially for any depressed technology and small-cap shares.
What Have Democratic Sweeps Meant for the S&P 500?
Headed into the first presidential debate Tuesday night, betting markets (ElectionBettingOdds.com) placed Democratic candidate Joe Biden as the slight favorite to take the White House in November. The debate resulted in Biden gaining another 5 percentage point chance of winning the Presidency. As of this morning, Biden's odds to win are at 59.8% versus Trump's odds of 38.9%. Additionally, Democrats are slight favorites to win control of the Senate (58.4% to 41.5%) and big favorites to maintain the House (82.8% to 17.1%). Given these odds, in the chart below we show the average performance of the S&P 500 from the three months before Election Day through three months after Election Day for all election years post-WWII that resulted in a sweep of the executive and legislative branch by the Democrats. As shown, on average the S&P 500 has been on the decline in the weeks leading up to Election Day, though in the days just before the Election there has been a small rally that sharply reverses once the results come in. After the initial post-Election drop, the market has trended a bit higher, but by three months after the Election, it has only found itself around the same levels as Election Day; on average a 2.6% loss versus where the index stood three months prior.
The composite shown above is comprised of six different years: 1948, 1960, 1964, 1976, 1992, and 2008. While on average the S&P 500 has traded lower, it is not necessarily a sure-fire thing. For example, 1948 and 2008 were the only years that saw the S&P 500 trade and stay significantly lower in the wake of the election. In 1976, there was similarly a sell-off in the immediate aftermath of the election, but the index did make its way back up to the highs of that six-month time frame later on albeit no new high was put in place. Meanwhile, 1960, 1964, and 1992 all saw the S&P 500 run higher after the election even despite some periods of consolidation after initial moves higher. In our B.I.G. Tips report from Tuesday, we show these same charts for all Presidential election years post WWII including a look at the average performance given every potential election outcome.
Even after September's weakness, the S&P 500's trailing 12-month total return stood at an impressive 14.9%. Given the events of the last 12 months, one could even say that performance is remarkable. What's even crazier is that the S&P 500's performance over the last 12 months is more than three times stronger than the 12 month period before that (+4.25%). The chart below compares the S&P 500's annualized total returns over the last one, two, five, ten, and twenty years and compares that performance to the historical average return of the index over those same time periods. The S&P 500's historical average 12-month return is 11.7%, so the current 14.9% gain exceeds that average by more than three full percentage points. Over a two-year window, though, the S&P 500's annualized return of 9.4% is more than a full percentage point below the historical average. Looking further out, the S&P 500's trailing five and ten-year annualized return has been much stronger than average, which makes sense given the long bull market we were in. Over a 20 year window, though, the S&P 500 is only just starting to work off some of the declines from the dot-com bust and as a result, the 6.4% annualized gain is a four and a half percentage points below the long-term average of 10.9%.
Below we show how the current performance of the S&P 500 in each of the time frames shown compares to all other periods on a percentile basis. The S&P 500's performance over the last year, ranks just below 56th percentile of all other periods, while the two-year performance ranks just below the 42nd percentile. Even as the five and ten-year periods have seen well above average returns, they still rank in just the mid-60s on a percentile basis. The S&P 500's ranking over a 20-year time period is a completely different story ranking in single-digits on a percentile basis. Even with the equity market right near record highs, the last two decades have been forgettable for US equities.
There is no denying that market seasonality has not worked so well this year. But we have been here before and history is on our side. Over the long term, intermediate term and short term market seasonality has suffered brief periods when seasonality was overridden by more powerful forces. The COVID pandemic and economic shutdown certainly qualifies. But it is only a matter of time until repetitive human behavior patterns and people and institutions return to moving money around in the usual daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly and seasonal patterns. The return of perennial September weakness is emblematic of a return to normal market behavior and a reflection of the fact that despite the continuing concerns about surges in coronavirus cases life is beginning to return to normal. In our area, about 25-30 miles north of New York City, our kids are beginning hybrid learning, playing rugby, lacrosse and other sports (yes with some COVID protocols, but tackling and facing-off), golf outings are happening and people are going to restaurants and out and about. The chart here shows the historical One-Year Pattern of the S&P 500 Since 1950 versus 2020. The black line shows the seasonal pattern since 1950. The blue represents the pattern since 1988. We use 1988 as it is the first year after the 1987 Crash when the market underwent a major systemic change with the implementation of downside protection circuit breakers and collars. It is noteworthy how the seasonal pattern persists during both the 70-year and 31-year timeframes. 2020 is plotted on the right axis due to the magnitude of the move this year. The yellow box highlights the rebirth of seasonality this September, especially during this notoriously negative Week After Triple Witching Week as detailed page 108 of the 2020 Almanac, indicated by the two black arrows Years like 1980, 1982, 2009 and 2016 with unseasonably early weakness and bear markets like 2020 returned to normal seasonal patterns in short order. And years like 1954, 1958, 1980, 1982, 1995 and 2009 that exhibited double-digit gains in the Worst Six Months still proceeded to deliver further sizable gains in the subsequent Best Six Months (page 52, STA 2020). We believe the return of market seasonality is upon us. So remain cautious through the end of September and be alert to Octoberophobia, but remain ready to pounce on our Best Months Seasonal MACD Buy Signal, when it triggers.
Below are some of the notable companies coming out with earnings releases this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:
Monday 10.5.20 Before Market Open:
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Monday 10.5.20 After Market Close:
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Friday 10.9.20 Before Market Open:
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Friday 10.9.20 After Market Close:
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Domino's Pizza, Inc. $433.78
Domino's Pizza, Inc. (DPZ) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:30 AM ET on Thursday, October 8, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $2.73 per share on revenue of $944.53 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $2.83 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 76% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 33.17% with revenue increasing by 15.07%. Short interest has decreased by 31.5% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 7.4% from its open following the earnings release to be 22.3% above its 200 day moving average of $354.71. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 7.3% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 8.2% move in recent quarters.
Paychex, Inc. (PAYX) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 8:30 AM ET on Tuesday, October 6, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.56 per share on revenue of $895.39 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.57 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 49% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 21.13% with revenue decreasing by 9.74%. Short interest has decreased by 9.7% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 2.8% from its open following the earnings release to be 6.0% above its 200 day moving average of $74.91. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, September 18, 2020 there was some notable buying of 1,269 contracts of the $90.00 call expiring on Friday, March 19, 2021. Option traders are pricing in a 4.8% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.1% move in recent quarters.
RPM International Inc. (RPM) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:45 AM ET on Wednesday, October 7, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.21 per share on revenue of $1.49 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.26 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 65% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 27.37% with revenue increasing by 1.17%. Short interest has decreased by 39.7% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 3.3% from its open following the earnings release to be 12.4% above its 200 day moving average of $73.51. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 4.4% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.3% move in recent quarters.
Helen of Troy Ltd. (HELE) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:30 AM ET on Thursday, October 8, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $2.39 per share on revenue of $451.26 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $2.57 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 62% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 18.91% with revenue increasing by 9.00%. Short interest has decreased by 6.4% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 4.4% from its open following the earnings release to be 12.8% above its 200 day moving average of $177.13. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 5.7% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 8.9% move in recent quarters.
Acuity Brands, Inc. (AYI) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 8:40 AM ET on Thursday, October 8, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $2.01 per share on revenue of $814.63 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $2.12 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 46% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 28.21% with revenue decreasing by 13.16%. Short interest has increased by 62.6% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 5.6% from its open following the earnings release to be 4.1% above its 200 day moving average of $101.43. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 5.8% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 9.0% move in recent quarters.
Levi Strauss & Co. (LEVI) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:00 PM ET on Tuesday, October 6, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.27 per share on revenue of $766.84 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.20) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 40% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 187.10% with revenue decreasing by 47.01%. Short interest has increased by 3.9% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 7.3% from its open following the earnings release to be 3.5% below its 200 day moving average of $14.66. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, October 2, 2020 there was some notable buying of 8,166 contracts of the $14.00 call expiring on Friday, October 16, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 10.6% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 6.9% move in recent quarters.
Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc. (LW) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 8:30 AM ET on Wednesday, October 7, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.30 per share on revenue of $877.60 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.28 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 36% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 62.03% with revenue decreasing by 11.26%. Short interest has decreased by 21.7% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 4.1% from its open following the earnings release to be 1.8% below its 200 day moving average of $69.17. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, October 2, 2020 there was some notable buying of 1,580 contracts of the $70.00 call expiring on Friday, October 16, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 8.3% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 6.7% move in recent quarters.
Landec Corp. (LNDC) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:20 PM ET on Tuesday, October 6, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.11 per share on revenue of $127.86 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.09) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 41% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 31.25% with revenue decreasing by 7.82%. Short interest has decreased by 5.1% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 12.3% from its open following the earnings release to be 8.4% below its 200 day moving average of $10.30. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 16.7% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 10.6% move in recent quarters.
Saratoga Investment Corp (SAR) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:00 PM ET on Wednesday, October 7, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.47 per share on revenue of $12.95 million. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 48% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 30.88% with revenue decreasing by 6.75%. Short interest has decreased by 60.5% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 6.3% from its open following the earnings release. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release.
EXFO Inc. (EXFO) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:00 PM ET on Wednesday, October 7, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.07 per share on revenue of $64.85 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.07 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 30% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 40.00% with revenue decreasing by 7.59%. Short interest has decreased by 17.5% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 14.7% from its open following the earnings release. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release.
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