Not Financial Advice (NFA)
Warning: Wall of Text. If you hate reading just skim through the bolded/italicized
Ever since I publicized my findings on DKNG, the stock has underperformed & probably has fucked a lot of people here, especially given the overly bullish stance back in June. Unless you took my advice & got into Puts then, congrats, welcome to tendie town. For the ADHD retards, here’s what the next wall of text is going to summarize: I believe at the current price of ~$30, the stock is oversold.
A tech-focused, high-growth Company that has made sports betting easy to understand with an aesthetically pleasing interface similar to how Robinhood has neatly laid out stock market gimmicks so even high-schoolers can make sense of it I believe, is underpriced at these levels.
Let’s get into some details as to why the stock has underperformed:
First off, the news slate revolving sports with the rumored delay/cancellation of the MLB season & the NFL watching from the sidelines is in my view, just a part of why the stock has underperformed. We’ll revisit this later in this post, but I want to focus on the drivers of the stock’s recent underperformance, & why these factors are now in the rearview mirror.
Part I – The Past Has Passed – SPAC-related Equity Dilution
History lesson first: DKNG went public via a SPAC merger, which has exploded in popularity recently. Anyone serious about analyzing stocks going forward needs to do their homework on this, Google is your friend.
A feature of most SPAC merger to public listings that creates a headwind to near-term share prices are embedded equity dilution events, usually in the form of earn-outs (stock bonuses to execs, the SPAC sponsor) & conversion of Warrants.
On 5/24, the earn-outs were triggered, adding 6m shares to the share count.
On 6/26, 16.3m warrants converted to DKNG, netting them ~$188m of cash.
Stepping back a little, in addition to the above, on 6/18 DKNG launched a follow-on equity offering of 16M shares @ $40/Share [1], receiving $621M in proceeds.
The last part is tricky to understand from a dilution perspective. To simplify, historically it’s almost a coin toss whether a Company’s shares outperform on the onset of an equity offering. While issuing shares does dilute the existing shareholder base, it theoretically shouldn’t, if the proceeds from the offering are earmarked for investments/projects that yield outsized returns. This is the reality for the long term, theory for the short-term. For the short-term, the ‘reality’ isn’t that the proceeds will be used for investments/projects that yield outsized returns, it is more about how convincing management is to investors that the investments they intend to pursue with the proceeds will outweigh the dilutive effects of issuing incremental shares. That’s a mouthful, but hopefully you get what I’m trying to convey.
All of this stuff put together – the Company has increased its share count by ~39M, but now has a whopping ~$1.4Bn of cash [2]. More on this in the next section.
Part II – MLB News Should Not Fucking Matter & DKNG Is Positioned As the Leading Online/Mobile Sports Platform
DKNG should not be so tied to MLB news or any of this shit as the ongoing success of the NBA/NHL season + Soccer in Europe has effectively created a blueprint on how to regulate player behavior so that they maintain professionalism amidst the pandemic. I’m going out on a whim here, but I truly think the MLB threatening a cancellation of the season is pure posturing to get these fuckers to behave appropriately. Maybe a ‘bubble’ is what it takes to get these players to focus on their jobs instead of going out & contracting COVID, but I argue that isn’t necessarily required given Soccer in Europe. So there’s already a proven path here without the need for a bubble in Soccer, so MLB/NFL should be fine, and execs need to study how they got it done in Europe. Okay, back to some facts.
Anecdotally, I’ve kept in touch with a handful of sports bookies from California to New York & even internationally about what they’re seeing – all of them say that since the NBA season started on 7/30 & since Soccer (especially the Premier League) resumed in June, along with other leagues like La Liga & Serie A, they’ve seen massive increases in betting.
These numbers are also showing up in the official data [3]:

• Average % increase in sports betting handle from April 2020 to June 2020 (handle is the total $ wagered in sports bets) from the states that reported up to June 2020 (NJ, PA, MS, RI, WV, IA, IN, NH) of +258%!
  
  • Note: NV is left out due to the site I sourced showing a weirdly negative number – so I dug into the official filings & show specifically, Sports Mobile betting growth from June since April has growing by at least +73% [4]

REMEMBER: This is for June only! No NBA, No NHL, No MLB, just Soccer, Golf, NASCAR & UFC.
The data clearly shows that there was a ton of pent-up sports betting demand, which leads one Wall St. analyst to think that betting on the NBA/NHL could ABSORB the MLB’s sports betting handle (handle = total $ size of sports bet) [5]. Remember, the MLB season is still ongoing, with games being played. The entire focus is on the Miami Marlins & St. Louis Cardinals. Fucking retards.
Additionally, I want to remind everyone that DraftKings.com is the #1 Fantasy sports website in the U.S. [6]. Also, since April 2020 site visitations are up +86% [7] & Google Search Trends for “Draft Kings” is up ~3x compared to PRE-COVID levels [8]. What does this mean? They are piquing more people’s curiosity than prior to COVID/ongoing slate of sports.
This is important because remember that ~$1.4Bn chest full of cash I mentioned DKNG had assembled earlier? Well, that money is being put to work & results are already coming in, which is exactly what DKNG intended to do with it.
Part III – Legalization of Sports Betting in the U.S.
I could write a fucking bible on this topic alone, but for now we’ll stick to some basics. Due to COVID, it’s easy to understand that each State’s financial situation is clearly in shit. Because of this, you better believe that these guys are going to start taking a hard look at how they can extract additional tax revenues, & what’s one of the easiest ways to do this? Legalization & taxation of gambling.
The big players: CA, TX, FL & NY. First, CA pushing its legislation out to 2023 was fucked up, but here’s a twist I want to add to this: Anything that has to do with gambling in CA you better believe is lobbied against by not just the Tribal casino owners in CA, but by the deep pockets of Las Vegas money. Similar thing can be said for FL, but let’s take a look at some actions by LV/nationwide gambling companies that are starting to align financial incentives with guys like DKNG.

• MGM / GVC Holdings JV in BetMGM - $450m total invested
• PENN invests $163m into BS Sports
• Caesars has a 20% stake in William Hill plus partnership deals with The Stars Group (TSG) & our winner DKNG for operating its sports books

So it’s safe to say going forward, nationwide legalization of sports betting will reap rewards for everyone involved, & no longer be something LV money is completely focused on safeguarding.
Let’s also not forget that DKNG didn’t become the Company they are today because of their fancy app, but because their management team has a HISTORY of navigating the U.S.’s legal framework to get what they want out of it.

• The Crown Jewel – The Internet Gambling Prohibition & Enforcement Act: I said it in a previous post, but I want to emphasize that them getting Fantasy Sports to be labeled a ‘game of skill’ by FEDERAL Law as opposed to gambling is just something for the history books. Fucking genius shit. When this happened I bet every casino from LV to every Indian Tribe that has one was against it, yet DKNG & other DFS providers won.
• There’s more, but more recently: Getting into IL:
  
  • In IL, there’s an 18-month ‘penalty box’ for Companies that offer DFS to offer sports betting. Our guys at DKNG created a workaround to this situation with their partnership with Casino Queen [9]. DKNG being savvy again.

These guys are at the cutting edge of creating legal frameworks to successfully launch their products & now with more of their ‘competitors’ financially aligned with them, combined with financial deterioration of State budgets, we should see an overweighting of good news vs. bad on the legal front.
Final Part – Share Price Targets
Under-fucking priced at anything below $42.50
Near-term catalysts:
8/14: DKNG files 2Q’20 results, might be shitty, but you can bet that the Earnings Call is going to contain rhetoric on how massive the uptick in sports betting has been since late June/July.
Sometime from now until November: NY releases ‘study’ by Spectrum Gaming on online/mobile sports betting.
8/20 – 9/7: PGA Championship for FedEx Cup Title
9/5 – KY Derby
9/10: NFL KickOff Game
9/17: PGA U.S. Open Start Date
Month of October: NBA/NHL Playoffs
10/1: Estimated launch of online sports betting in TN
11/1: Estimated launch of online sports betting in VA
[1] https://draftkings.gcs-web.com/news-releases/news-release-details/draftkings-announces-proposed-public-offering-class-common-stock
[2] Wall St. Research – DKNG on 6/29/20
[3] https://www.legalsportsreport.com/sports-betting/revenue/
[4] https://gaming.nv.gov/modules/showdocument.aspx?documentid=16984; Note: Nevada did not break out April/May figures but from the Revenue difference of 3 month ended June 30 of 4,950 vs. month of June of 2,297 for a total difference of 2,653 spread evenly over April/May for a base case April estimate of 1,327.
[5] Wall St. Research - 7/27/20
[6] https://www.similarweb.com/top-websites/category/sports/fantasy-sports/
[7] https://www.similarweb.com/website/draftkings.com/#overview
[8] https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&q=draft%20kings Feb 23-29, 2020 vs. Current Aug 2 – Aug 8, 2020
[9] https://www.legalsportsreport.com/42314/draftkings-illinois-sports-betting-market-access/

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When it comes to online sports betting regulation, the USA is still on its infancy. On May 2018, the Supreme Court opened the way for states to pave their own legislation regarding sports betting offers.
New Jersey was one of the first states to apply legislation on this matter, having 16 websites offering and accepting online sports wagers. Many of the websites also have Apps available so players can download them onto their devices and use them while on the go.

What to Expect from a Sportsbook App

In order to legally function in the state of New Jersey, online sportsbooks need to be licensed by the Division of Gaming Enforcement (DGE). The first step players who want to go mobile must take is, therefore, to find a fully licenced site and beware of the - still - many unregulated bookies operating on the market.
Ever since sports betting became legal in the Garden State, a huge percentage of all the money legally gambled was done either online or on mobile. Whether wagering on NBA or NFL events, Hockey or even MMA, a look at the growing list of NJ Sportsbooks Apps available in Gamble USA can show that New Jersey already has plenty of variety to choose from.
​

• 888sport Sportsbook App

888sport, along with its sister sites 888casino and 888poker, belongs to 888 Holdings and offers an App fit for both Android and iOS.
This sportsbook has lots of options when it comes to betting, like Tennis, Nascar, English Premier League, Basketball, Bowling or all the major US leagues. It has around 3547 markets available and a great Welcome Bonus. Players who register get a risk-free bet of up to $500. This means that 888sport will give back the money of the lost bets made with the first deposit.
The sportsbook offers 24/7 customer support by email, phone and live chat and lots of payment options, from the traditional credit and debit cards to modern e-wallet solutions like Skrill or Neteller.
​

• DraftKings Sportsbook App

Draftkings is already a household name when it comes to sports betting. With roots on fantasy sports, this established company has over 10 million registered users worldwide and offers a sign-up bonus of up to $1000, made of a deposit bonus and a first bet match of $500 each.
The sportsbook app is quick to install and offers a great array of wagering chances, be it on Motorsports, Darts, Golf or Boxing. It’s available for both Android and iOS and can be contacted via live chat or email in case any issue occurs during gameplay.
When it comes to payment methods, Draftkings options are a bit limited, only having the traditional debit and credit cards and Paypal.
​

• PointsBet Sportsbook App

PointsBet is an Australian product introduced in 2019, offering dynamic betting to New Jersey sportsbook fans. The sportsbook offers a great welcome package comprised of 2 risk-free bets, each offering a $500 cashback.
The app is available for both Android and iOS and the markets on offer include soccer, darts, motorsports and even Aussie football. It also has a really good choice for NFL and NBA sports wagering and lots of betting features.
Customer support is available 24/7 and can be contacted via email, live chat and phone. Banking options, however, are not that much, with e-checks, credit and debit cards, online banking and PointsBet prepaid card available.
​

• William Hill Sportsbook App

One of the biggest operators in the world, William Hill has been a household name for many years and almost a synonym for betting. With a long history in brick and mortars, William Hill made a transition to mobile and now also has an app taking New Jersey players by storm.
The app is available both in Android and iOS and has great wagering opportunities and features. With a responsive design, the platform offers sports betting in markets such as Hockey, Football, Golf or Baseball and lots of bet types.
The support is available 24/7 by phone, email and live chat. Banking options are a bit limited, though. Players can deposit funds via e-check, credit and debit cards, William Hill prepaid card and even visit a William Hill location in NJ. Withdrawals are a bit more tricky, as right now, they’re only available via prepaid card or on location.

Conclusion

No matter the choice of Sportsbook App, players need to bear in mind some issues before downloading any of it and start enjoying some sports wagering. Gambling in New Jersey can only be done if players are located within the borders of the state, even when playing on mobile.
Android users must also beware that Google Play does not allow any money wagering and gambling apps in the App Store in the USA. This means that Android users need to download the apps, when available, directly from the websites by following the instructions normally available.

This came up in another thread, and it might be useful to have a brief overview. IANAL. I am not a lawyer. I am NOT a lawyer. If you need legal details regarding your own state, please consult an attorney in your area. I assembled this mostly because my grandmother, who lived in an FR state at the time, designated me as her responsible party if anything happened to her. I happen to live in a non-FR state, and when my grandmother became unable to care for herself, I moved her to my state (not just because of FR, but it certainly was a factor). This is my research and the major questions I had. This only applies to the United States.
Currently, the states with Filial Responsibility laws on the books are:
Alaska, Arkansas, California, Connecticut, Delaware, Georgia, Indiana, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Massachusetts, Mississippi, Montana{2015 case overturned the state's law; the law is still on the books, but precedent has declared it invalid}, Nevada, New Hampshire {Repealed 2015}, New Jersey, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Dakota, Tennessee, Utah, Vermont, Virginia, West Virginia.
What Is Filial Responsibilty?
Filial responsibility is the same principle as child support, except it assigns financial responsibility to the adult children for parents who are unable to pay for professional care on their own, or whose estates cannot fulfill their debts. It's an outgrowth of the Elizabethan English Poor Laws which the US inherited. The original law required parents, grandparents and children to support their blind, infirm or poor parent/child to the extent they were able. As it is applied now, in the United States, if an elder becomes impoverished, the state can charge the costs of that person's care to their child(ren), and private entities who provide care can sue the child(ren) for the cost of support. This most often happens in the case of Medicaid and nursing homes. Most 60+ adults do not have the resources to pay for 2-3 years of nursing home care, so this will become a greater issue in the next few years.
How is this legal?
Because legislatures have rarely removed these old laws, and because it pushes the costs of caring for the elderly poor onto private citizens without regard to the adult relationships of those citizens. (Idaho repealed theirs in 2012.) Write your state legislators, but beware, the elderly vote is prized, and pissing them off means getting these laws off the books is not going to be easy.
Well, crap. How can I protect myself from my spendthrift Narc?
If you live in a Filial Responsibility state, your best bet is to move to a non FR state. Do not live in the same state as your N(s). The Federal government does NOT have a Filial Responsibility law, which means that the state would have to bring a federal charge or federal civil suit against a citizen of another state, and since there is no federal FR law, there is no jurisdiction. There is federal case law that protects citizens living in non FR states from FR state cases. In theory, this should apply to citizens living in different FR states than their parents, but there's no case law on this yet. States have not yet created reciprocity agreements on FR like there are for child support, but it would be test case time. (Though there are rumblings of a Federal FR. With the largest American generation hitting retirement age with the least amount of savings ever, more states are getting hit with a Boomer squeeze. Right now, the fact that Congress can't agree on what to have for lunch is protecting us, but Congress will like a Federal FR law because it will lighten the Medicare/Medicaid load. Watch this space.)
What if my N follows me?
Move to one of the 20 21 states without this law.
I can't move. Am I screwed?
Not necessarily, and this is where you're going to need a lawyer. In theory, you should be able to disclaim any and all relationship and responsibility for a parent and their debts by having it published in the paper of record for several weeks. In doing so, you would also have to permanently forswear any inheritance rights, and revoke any trusts that have been set up for your benefit. Basically, this is the financial equivalent of divorce. And it may not work. This part is untested in the courts. While being a test case can be fun, interesting and educational, it's also harrowing, terrifying and potentially financially ruinous, and you'll need a close relationship with a family law attorney who also has an interest in (possibly) pro bono work at the state constitutional level. These attorneys tend to be rare. If that's not for you, move to a non-FR state and keep a close eye on your state legislature and the Federal government.
I don't have any money even if the state wanted to try to charge me for my N's care. Does this apply to me?
Yes. There are 12 states which allow CRIMINAL cases for FR. That could mean jail time. I have identified six of those states, and will update as I find the rest: So far, Complete list: Criminal only states: Kentucky, Massachusetts, North Carolina, Ohio, Oregon, Rhode Island, Vermont, Virginia. Criminal and Civil liability states: California, Connecticut, Indiana, Montana. CA, MD and MT are non-enforcement due to judicial ruling/precedent states.
The good news is that, unlike child support, FR usually has a limit on what a parent can receive, or what a civil plaintiff can recoup from an adult child. That limit, in PA, is 6 times the adult child's annual disposable income, after the support of themselves and their spouse and children, and preparing for their own future. PA can't go after a retirement fund or the equity in a house, and they can't take your kid's piano lessons or sports fees away. In all states with FR, the adult child cannot become impoverished themselves to support their parent. But it's still a pain in the ass, requires a whole financial life MRI, and it's a court case and a judgement, which hurts credit scores and quality of life.
When my N went into a Nursing Home, the Nursing Home required me to sign a contract of responsibility. So even if I don't live in a FR state, am I still on the hook?
Actually, that contract is probably not enforceable. In 1987, Congress passed the Nursing Home Reform Law, which mandates that any facility that accepts Medicaid payments cannot force a third party to accept responsibility for a patient. But the Nursing homes hate that, so they obfuscate, and sometimes outright lie about requiring a third party responsibility as a condition of admission. They're relying on the fact that most people have never had to put someone in a nursing home, and most people aren't well versed on the consumer side of medical financial law. If you're in that situation now, you need a lawyer. If you expect to ever be the one putting your N in a facility, know your rights and talk to an Elder Law attorney in your state about how to protect yourself, and do not sign that statement, no matter how the nursing home whines.
My Ns gave me their house/set up a trust so that I would be sure to inherit. Does this mean I'm on the hook?
Probably yes. Medicaid has look back on assets and property and a 5 year penalty period if a person disposes of their assets through a gift. People can give their stuff away at their pleasure, but if they need state aid in the form of Medicaid within five years, it's assumed that the person gave their stuff away to protect the asset and keep it in the family. That means the person who gave the stuff away cannot receive Medicaid funds for a period of time equal to 1 day for every $156 of value, or 5 years. States with FR can go after the beneficiary of that gift for the cost. If this looks like it will be an issue for you, get an Elder Law lawyer now, and be prepared to give the gift back, or take out a mortgage to return the value of the house at the time of the gift. N Gifts always come with strings.
Okay, I'm scared. How often does this happen?
It's a good news, bad news situation. The good news is that this is fairly rare, over all. The states which have this law on the books use it fairly rarely, with the exceptions of Pennsylvania and South Dakota, who use it a lot. In California, the state is prevented from suing the child on behalf of the parent if the parent qualifies for state aid, and doesn't get involved if the parent doesn't qualify for aid, so the California law is effectively dead and in legal limbo. In Nevada, the law is only enforceable if the child promised in writing to provide for the parent(s). In Connecticut, the law only applies to parents who become indigent who are also under the age of 65, and any responsibility would end at age 65. In Arkansas, the children's FR comes after the state's responsibility, so it doesn't get often used.
The bad news is that Pennsylvania and South Dakota like to use this law and use it quite often to get payment for medical and nursing home services. The more these states use this, the more likely it becomes that other states will notice and follow suit. The Medicaid look back practice that I mentioned above is universal, so be aware that as with most things, N generosity always comes with strings and hidden traps.
But I haven't spoken to my N in X years. I don't even know where they are --
Yeah, the states who use this law don't really care. Most of the states do have an out clause for documented abuse, neglect or abandonment before the child reached majority, but they don't care about adult on adult abuse or permanent estrangement. In those cases, you'd really need a lawyer, and preferably a documented history of restraining orders or assault charges. And again, this is back to test case. These cases are fairly rare outside of PA and ND, so there's not a lot of case law, and what case law there is tends to be several decades old, when child abuse was barely considered a crime and the standards for abuse were almost impossibly high. It would be messy and difficult.
Citation needed
Okay, Here ya go:
http://elibrary.law.psu.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1034&context=fac_works
http://www.ncpa.org/pub/ba521/
http://www.aarp.org/relationships/caregiving/info-01-2009/paying_for_momlittle_known_laws_force_families_to_fund_parents_care_.html
http://blog.aarp.org/2013/10/28/more-filial-support-cases-ending-up-in-court/
http://fenelli.com/lawye2016/02/29/Estate-Planning/Filial-Responsibility-Laws_bl23698.htm
http://www.hba.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/2015-Filial-Responsibility-Revisions-1.pptx
http://www.regent.edu/acad/schlaw/blogs/docs/filiallaws.pdf
http://brinkleywalserstoner.com/support-parents-filial-responsibility/
http://www.lawrev.state.nj.us/Filial%20responsibility/filialrespM060815.pdf
Edit 1: Formatting Edit 2: Finished the criminal/civil state list.