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(OC Megapost) the 2020 NBA Draft, Free Agency, and How the Warriors Can Play Their Cards to Set up Another Decade of Contention

(OC Megapost) the 2020 NBA Draft, Free Agency, and How the Warriors Can Play Their Cards to Set up Another Decade of Contention
Media members and the NBA subreddit will tell you our dynasty is over, however if you take a closer look, this franchise has one of the brightest futures in the NBA. I’ve had some free time on my hands so I decided to do some investigation on what moves Bob Myers & Co might make to keep us in contention. After all, they have been vocal about keeping our championship window open as long as possible.
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This post is long so feel free to jump around. I broke it up into three sections with a TLDR at the end
  1. Current Roster Construction
  2. How we should use our 2020 draft pick
  3. Free Agency and the TPE
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First, Roster Construction: Looking Ahead

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G: Stephen Curry- Age 31 (Almost 32)
Curry is our franchise linchpin and until proven otherwise, the best point guard in the league. With that being said….......fuck…….... Steph is getting older. Injuries, wear and tear, and playoff minutes will all be factors in his eventual decline. Curry is under contract for two more years and the front office will probably extend him with another max deal.
The Future: There is a good chance these next two seasons are Curry’s last as a superstar, although his skill set will translate well into his mid 30’s. I’m praying we get 3-4 more years of MVP level Steph. We probably see regular season load management for the rest of his career.
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G: Klay Thompson- Age 30
  • Max Contract Through 2024 (will be 34)
  • Bird Rights
  • 2020 Minutes Prediction: 75 games @ 32 mpg
Klay is locked up under contract and in the middle/late stage of his prime. He is in the sweet spot of mental & physical development and we should see peak Klay for at least a couple more seasons. ACL tears are almost always 100% recoverable with current medical technology, so I’m not worried about a production decrease until the 2022-23 season.
The Future: Standard Klay for the next 2-3 years.
F: Andrew Wiggins, Age 24 (almost 25)
  • Max Contract Through 2023 (will be 28)
  • Bird Rights
  • 78 Games @ 34 mpg
Andrew has been a hot and controversial topic since he was traded last week. Take a look at our official trade thread.Emotions have now settled, and it looks like he can be a contributing factor on a championship team. He is durable, unselfish, our best athlete, a great on-ball defender, and a much more natural scorer compared to someone like Barnes. He’s also just entering his “prime”. Most NBA players have their best seasons age 26-31 so there is potential (the magic word!) we see Wiggins improve here.
There are, however, negatives to Andrew’s game. He is not a great facilitator (although he is getting better), PnR ball handler, iso player, leader, and lacks the “dog” of a superstar #1 pick. I wouldn’t call him malaise, but he is an emotionless player. Luckily for us we will play to his strengths and through three games we can already see how he fits our system: cutting, hard drives, moving the ball, smart threes, and running the floor. Andrew is taking less shots & scoring more efficiently than he did with the Wolves, and I see this continuing as the third option.
Luckily we have leadership and emotional players so Wiggins can just come out and ball. Check out Athletic Alchemy's video on winning culture and accountability
The Future: Being incredibly conservative, I have him averaging 18/5/3 shooting 48/36/75 next year with good defense. This production is almost twice what Barnes averaged in the Bay and would solidify Andrew as a top 7-10 SF. His ceiling however is higher, and star potential is still there.
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F: Draymond Green, Age 29 (almost 30)
  • Contract Through 2024, Player Option (will be 34)
  • Bird Rights
  • 70 Games @ 33mpg
Draymond might be the worst scorer in the league, but our fanbase know he does everything else at a good-to-elite level. He’s our general, our defensive anchor, and the father figure of this G-league roster.
Offensively he orchestrates the team, handles the ball, and is our best facilitator. Defensively he's top a help/PnR defender, and when he locks-in he is still elite on-ball. With Dlo gone he can run more of the offense and won't get as frustrated on the other end. Physically we aren’t in 2015 anymore, but Dray can still turn on the burners and push it when he needs to. He is the vocal leader of this team, a great motivator, and keeps everyone accountable while being one of the winning-est players of this generation.
The Future: With a rejuvenated and well rested Green I think we see at least another 2 seasons of high level production. I’m curious to see how his declining athleticism impacts his game, although I don’t think we notice a big difference for a few years.
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C: Kevon Looney, Age 24
  • Contract Through 2022, Player Option (will be 26)
  • Bird Rights
  • 68 games @ 14 minutes a night
Looney was a key piece to our finals roster last year and has a role when this team is healthy. This year's production has been a wash with injuries and I hope he can get his mojo back for next season.
At his best Looney is a small center who has good lateral quickness and can switch 1-5 competently. He has decent offensive IQ and can finish around the rim. Hopefully he can continue to develop and be a rotation piece in the future. He’s only 24 years old.
Next Year: We probably see Looney with similar effectiveness to the 2018-2019 season, playing in match-up dependent stretches.
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PG/SG: Jordan Poole, Age 20 (Rookie)
  • Contract Through 2023, Team Option (will be 23)
  • Bird Rights
  • 75 games @ 12 minutes a night
Jordan has been one of our most polarizing players. He almost played himself out of the league in December putting up 10 points on 29/26/84 efficiency. Thankfully his production has picked up since moving to point guard averaging 11/3/3 on 42/27/100 in February. He has a crafty handle and flashes of vision with a decent jump shot. His ceiling is a scoring 6th man, we just need to see continued improvement into the future.
Next Year: Poole shares the backup PG spot with Bowman and is inserted based on who’s hot.
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PF/SF: Eric Paschall, Age 23 (Rookie)
  • Contract through 2022, Team Option (will be 25)
  • Bird Rights
  • 75 Games @ 24 minutes a night
Eric is a strong, physically imposing forward who has good bounce for his build. He had an incredible start in November and looked like a starting caliber player, but his production has since dropped off. Teams are learning his tendencies as our best scorer and have exploited him accordingly. Hopefully he has a strong end of the year to get a head start on improving this off-season. He needs to work on his jump shot, ball handling, defense, and overall IQ if he wants heavy minutes on our contending roster. Once again, the potential is there.
Next Year: I think Paschall improves and logs time at the 3 and 4 next season. Spacing will be much better and Eric will be able to play to his strengths on the offensive end. If he develops an average jumper + defense he is a league starter.
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SG/SF: Damion Lee, Age 27
  • Contract through 2022 (will be 29)
  • Bird Rights
  • 75 games at 12 minutes a night
I don't have too much to say about Damion Lee. He is a decent scoreshooter who has had a good February. He moves without the ball and has bought into our system. He hustles and usually applies good effort. That being said he lacks the bball iq to be a good player on either end. He is who he is as a player.
Next Year: In a dry forward free agency/draft class Lee will still get playing time. Some nights he will make shots and others he will get played off the floor.
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C: Marquese Chriss, Age 22
  • Contract through 2021 (will be 23)
  • No Bird Rights :’(
  • 80 Games at 26 minutes a night
I fucking love Marquese Chriss. He is an emotional player with good finishing, size, and a great vertical. He has shown some playmaking ability and can move the ball within the flow of the offense. Chriss is already a more cerebral player over centers like Javale, Dwight, and Capela. February has been a great month for him: he's averaging 15/8/1 with 2.5 bpg in 27 minutes. He’s also 22 years old.
Chriss can be a starter in this league if he improves in a few areas. Defensively his PnR game needs work: he has moments where he loses focus and can end up in the wrong spot, although his shot blocking has been excellent. Offensively he needs to polish his game and develop his jumper. If he shows even a 10% improvement overall we should be ecstatic. The Warriors will end up having to use our MLE in 2021 to keep him, although he might be offered more by other teams.
The Future: I see Chriss continuing to improve and being a solid piece, if not a starter, on this roster.
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PG: Ky Bowman, Age 22
  • Contract Through 2022 (will be 24)
  • Bird Rights
  • 75 Games at 12 minutes a night
Bowman is a hustle player and our only facilitator other than Draymond. He has good chemistry with Chriss and is our “best” ball handler. He’s not someone you can count on to give you a bucket which lowers his value on this talent-dry team. He might have more success next year when we are healthy and he can focus on passing and defense. Speaking of defense, he’s good on that end.
Next Year: Ky will probably be competing with Poole next year for backup PG minutes on a game-by-game basis.
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G-League + 10 Day’ers
Alen Smailagic
  • Probably the only player who is on the team next year. He is a pure project, but has shown signs he might make it in the league.
JTA
  • A good defender and that's about it. We might keep him,
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The 2020 NBA Draft

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The Warriors have two high draft picks, our own in 2020, and a top three protected in 2021 from Minnesota.
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Why We Should Keep our (High) Draft Picks
  • Our core is heading into next year at 32 (Steph), 30 (Klay), 30 (Draymond), and 25 (Wiggins). Bringing in young players to develop and take regular season minutes from our stars makes sense.
  • High level rookies are on cheap, 4 year contracts w/ bird rights and turn into restricted free agents. We can also extend our core players while they develop.
  • It is financially impossible for this team to bring in free agents outside our MLE, TPE, and minimum contracts.
  • Drafting high-level rookies into the best culture, system, and team in the league??? Sign me up.
  • It is the only way to keep our championship window open in the short and long-term. We can still field an elite roster next year, the year after, and 5-6 years down the line if we get good development from our players.
  • That being said we shouldn’t be opposed to trading down into the 6-10 range this year if able.
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Who We Should Draft
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1) James Wiseman, C, Memphis, Freshman
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https://preview.redd.it/w3rkm8r1rdh41.jpg?width=1200&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=31d4771979ae6e0da2e6be03d5940702eb15b3a0
  • 7’1” 235, 7’5” Wingspan
  • Age 18 (3/31/01)
  • 20/10/3 blocks on 77/NA/70 splits
  • Pick Prediction: We take him if he is on the board
  • James is arguably the best center prospect since Karl Anthony-Towns. But the changing NBA landscape and his shortened season might give us an opportunity to draft him as high as 5. He's an athlete, has a build that will allow him to add muscle, and was already an elite shot blocker in Memphis. He’s a physical specimen with measurables only matched by Rudy Gobert. He has shown the potential to build a jump shot and has good awareness around the rim. He shot 70% on 9FTA per game this season. It will take him time to develop into a star but he should produce at least Javale-like numbers year one. Historically we have never had a great center so it’s hard to imagine this team with a dominant big. The league is trending smaller but I still think Wiseman is a must-draft prospect with superstar potential
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2) Anthony Edwards, G Georgia, Freshman
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https://preview.redd.it/abdqcx92rdh41.jpg?width=1200&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=a15508e980af81e1f5e19a7f4b362cd9a545baa1
  • 6’5” 225, 6’10” Wingspan
  • Age 18 (8/05/01)
  • 20/5/3 on 41/30/76 splits (7.5 3PA/G)
  • Pick Prediction: We take him if Wiseman is off the board
  • I’m not as high on Edwards as others but once again he has potential we can't pass up on. He’s one of the youngest players in the draft and already has an incredible NBA body. He can score and get his shot off anywhere plus has the makeup to be a lockdown defender. He already does everything on both ends of the floor well. He’s the most complete player in the draft and a top 2 pick.
  • Edwards’ biggest negative is his shot selection: Step back twos, contested jumpers, isolation fade-aways, etc. Luckily It seems it's more a product of his system/green light rather than an attitude issue (see Carmelo Anthony). It's still the biggest knock on him as a prospect and his ego would take a hit on this Warriors team.
After Wiseman & Edwards are selected I could see us trading down into the 5-11 range as star potential drops-off (except for LaMelo, who I’m not high on). Other teams will try to trade down as well, so we might end up having to keep the pick.
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3a) Tyrese Haliburton, G, Iowa State, Sophomore
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https://preview.redd.it/y8nozj03rdh41.jpg?width=1024&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=1ff238425ee79d6844c8c58d5aedae0339faf1e4
  • 6’5” 185, Good Wingspan
  • Age 19 (2/29/00)
  • 15/6/7 on 50/42/82 splits (3 3PA/G)
  • Pick Prediction: 4-8
  • Tyrese is my favorite player in this draft. I’m arguably higher on Haliburton than Edwards, especially fit-wise for this team. Tyrese is a natural passer, team player, and a more efficient scorer as a sophomore at Iowa State. He acts as the floor general in a pass-and-move system and is already an elite facilitator. He's a great shooter with a funky jumpshot (KAT and Kevin Martin mixed), but I don’t think it will be an issue in the league. He has NBA range ++ and Tyrese will space the floor immediately as a catch-and-shoot player. Defensively he needs work on-ball, but his team defense is excellent. He is a vocal defender with crisp rotations, and frequently blocks shots & attacks the passing lanes. He’s out for the season with a broken wrist so he could fall to us in the 7-10 range.
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3b) Isaac Okoro, F, Auburn, Freshman
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https://preview.redd.it/r8sd4bo3rdh41.jpg?width=927&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=8eaf22fb9135d4df2124784b84ab772ddb56af7b
  • 6’6”, 225, 6”9” Wingspan
  • Age 19 (1/26/01)
  • 13/5/2 on 51/27/66 (2.5 3PA/G)
  • Pick Prediction: 4-6
  • Okoro is rising up big-boards as one of this draft’s most intriguing prospects. He has great athleticism and will make an immediate impact on an NBA defense: switching 1-5, locking-up the opponents best scorer, harassing off-ball, and demoralizing teams on a nightly basis. Offensively he's very raw but has come into his own since the start of the year, playing his most consistent stretch of basketball in February. He isn’t your typical 3&D wing: he's at his best when he can use his body and physicality to score. He racks up second chance points as a great offensive rebounder and thrives in transition. In the halfcourt he’s most effective when attacking the basket or cutting backdoor. His 3 ball is also improving: shooting 32% in his last 8 games (with decent form). Okoro makes us an elite defense right away and has a good ceiling offensively.
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3c) Obi Toppin, F, Dayton, Sophomore
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https://preview.redd.it/wddx69o4rdh41.jpg?width=1920&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=a8a909292256014bfc78d7a8e5b77fe85f6db3d3
  • 6’9”, 220, Good Wingspan
  • Age 21 (3/4/1998)
  • 20/8/2 on 63/36/72 splits (3 3PA/G)
  • Pick Prediction: Trade down, 6-10
  • Obi is a physically developed 6’9” athlete who is an incredibly powerful dunker. He can play the post, set screens, run the floor, block shots, and is a great fit in today’s game. He’s also shown NBA range with good form in his sophomore season. Being almost 22 years old he doesn’t have the ceiling of other prospects, but he's a sure bet to be a productive player. Toppin will work as a small ball centePF and can play 3-5. His on-ball defense is a question mark against playmaking forwards but he still should be an asset on that end.
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6) Deni Avdija, F, Maccabi Tel Aviv
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https://preview.redd.it/lb9635b5rdh41.jpg?width=960&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=9c476ba21e612da2ba2120bb5e37007612000a50
  • 6’8”, 200
  • Age 19
  • 4/3/1 on 47/33/58 (14 mpg)
  • Pick Prediction: Trade down, 7-11
  • Deni is a prospect who hasn’t played many minutes this year. He is a point-forward who can score, pass, dribble and play within the offense. In the minutes he's actually received he's been a pretty impressive player! (Think of a better facilitating Gallinari as his ceiling). He’s a decent finisher at the rim and has NBA size.
  • He does have some clear negatives: He’s limited athletically, so there is a ceiling on his defense and physical abilities. He has also been a terrible free throw shooter and his jump shot is inconsistent. That being said he is a great plug and play guy in our system with good offensive upside. He’s the last player I would be excited to draft.
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Players that Don’t Make Sense

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1) LaMelo Ball, G , Illawarra
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https://preview.redd.it/56d3j286rdh41.jpg?width=960&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=4a9918eb5a2ea7363bf8e5ac8342ad851abe1897
  • 6’7”, 180
  • Age 18 (8/22/2001)
  • 17/8/7 on 37/25/72 (Seven 3PA/G)
  • The Good: Melo is a tall point forward and a triple double threat every night. He is a smoother overall player than Lonzo, has a MUCH better handle, and has some crazy finishes at the rim (high-level 2k layup package). He has a star ceiling and is the youngest out of all the prospects.
  • The Bad: Melo is a reality TV and Instagram star. I question if he has the drive & desire to compete with guys like Jimmy Butler or Russel Westbrook on a nightly basis. I wouldn’t necessarily say he’s cocky but he celebrates and stares people down more than he should on the worst team in the NBL (5-22 record this year). He’s a bad on-ball defender and doesn’t put in effort off-ball. What will be most detrimental to his NBA career, however, is his efficiency. Melo has the dream combo of bad mechanics + poor shot selection and it translates to his shooting percentages. He’ll have to make some drastic changes to be a high-level starter. I don’t abhor him as a prospect, I just hate his fit on this team and want nothing to do with the Lavar circus.
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2) Onyeka Okongwu, C, USC, Freshman
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https://preview.redd.it/x9nbye47rdh41.jpg?width=620&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=b297ef311e2e5c475231763d27832aec0a6c46af
  • 6’8”, 235
  • Age 19 (12/11/2000)
  • 16/9/3 blocks on 61/NA/75
  • Onyeka and LaMelo will be the second and third lottery picks from Chino Hills’ 2016 roster, joining Lonzo Ball in this year's draft. Okongwu is an imposing player that fills the lob threat/rim protector role better than anyone this class sans Wiseman. His ceiling will fluctuate based on the development of his jumpshot. I don’t see him as a fit- Chriss already takes up our undersized center role.
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3) Everyone Else
  • There are an abundance of decent point guard prospects and none of them fit the roster (except Haliburton). RJ Hampton is too much of a project, Killian Hayes plays like Dlo, Cole Anthony is inefficient, and other guards will land outside of the lottery.
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Free Agency and the TPE

This team has a few big holes and Warriors only have the Mid-Level Exception and Minimum contract options to use at our disposal: our biggest need is a bruising center, followed by wing depth, a backup point guard, and shooting. I’ve organized an MLE tier list and focused on our obtainable options. There are also minimum contract ideas to round out our roster. You can find current and future free agents here.

MLE Targets

First Tier, Pipe Dreams: Marc Gasol, Goran Dragic, Serge Ibaka , Danillo Gallinari
Second Tier, Realistic Options: Tristan Thompson, Aron Baynes, Dwight Howard, Paul Milsap, Jae Crowder, Jeff Teague
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1) Tristan Thompson, C, Cleveland Cavs, Age 28
  • $18.6 mil current salary
  • 12/10/2 and 1 block on 51/NA/64, 30mpg
  • Full MLE
  • Tristan has the best mixture of age, physicality, defense, and rebounding out of our center options. He is also the youngest on this list at 28 years old. He can bang with other bruisers and switch 1-5 when locked in (as we have experienced first hand). He’s going to be a commodity with other contenders this summer.
2) Aron Baynes, C, Phoenix Suns, Age 33
  • $5.3 mil
  • 11/6/2 with 2 blocks on 49/33/72 (4 3PA/G), 22mpg
  • Partial MLE
  • Aron Baynes is a big center who can shoot and stretch the floor. He’s a fantastic pairing with our starters and might be signable for a portion of the MLE. He will match up against centers like Gobert, Jokic, and Adams. He fills a role this team has never had before as a stretch 5 who can hit free throws.
3) Dwight Howard, C, Los Angeles Lakers, Age 34
  • $2.6 mil current salary
  • 8/8/1 and 1.4 blocks on 74/NA/60, 20mpg
  • Partial MLE
  • Dwight finally let go of his ego and has been excellent this year in a clogged rotation. At 34 he’s still an elite athlete on the court and the best rebounder on the Lakers. He would immediately give our team size and power and brings good energy to the locker room.
4) Paul Milsap, PF, Denver Nuggets, Age 35
  • $30.1 mil
  • 12/6/2 on 48/44/85 (2.4 3PA/G), 24mpg
  • Full MLE
  • Paul has been playing at an effective level for 14 years. He’s a strong, versatile defender who can score efficiently in the flow of the offense. He’s arguably the best player on this list but he doesn’t fill our biggest needs. He will, however, be an incredible backup to Draymond and can play the 4 or small ball 5. Paul will be a highly desired asset.
5) Jae Crowder, SF, Miami Heat, Age 29
  • $7.8 mil
  • 10/6/3 on 37/29/79 (6 3PA/G) 27mpg
  • Partial MLE target
  • Crowder is our best wing option in 2020. I have him over the Morris twins because of his attitude and bball IQ. Watching Jae he’s a great teammate, hustle player, and willing passer. His efficiency is horrible this season, but it seems to be more of an outlier than normal: his career shooting splits are 42/34/78 (although fg% has been down after his stint in Boston). He’s a strong, physical defender who can guard 1-4 and always plays with effort.
6) Jeff Teague, PG, Atlanta, Age 31
  • $19.0 Mil
  • 13/6/3 on 45/38/87 splits (2.5 3PA/G) 28mpg
  • Partial MLE
  • Jeff hasn’t been a starting caliber pg since his Atlanta days, but he could be decent as a backup for Steph. I’m not a huge fan of his game, as he just edges out the Morris brothers for my last pick.
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Third Tier, Honorable Mentions: Mason Plumlee, Nerlens Noel, Enes Kanter, Alex Len, Javale McGee, Robin Lopez, Morris Twins, Derrick Favors

Minimum Contract Ideas

Top 5: Wes Matthews, DJ Augustin, GR3, Marvin Williams, Patrick Patterson
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Wes Mathews, G, 33
  • 8/3/1 on 41/37/77 splits (4 3PA/G), 25mpg
  • Wes is still producing on a Bucks team on pace to win 70 games. He is a good defender, spaces the floor, and can start if we need him too. He has a player option this year so we will have to offer him more than the vet minimum to pull him out of Milwaukee.
DJ Augustin, G, 32
  • 11/2/5 on 39/35/88 splits (3.5 3PA/G) 26mpg
  • DJ is not an exciting pickup by any means but he adds shooting and playmaking to the bench. As of right now he's a better overall PG than Poole and Bowman. He’s in the midst of a down year statistically and might be a good buy-low option.
Glen Robinson III, G, 26
  • 12/4/2 on 48/40/85 splits (3.5 3PA/G), 30mpg
  • GR3 got great experience on our team and developed into an efficient scorer. He understands our system and would be ideal as a backup wing. Unfortunately teams will offer him the full MLE, and I’m not sure it makes sense to pay him that on our roster.
Marvin Williams, F, 33
  • 7/3/1 on 45/37/86 splits (3 3PA/G), 20mpg
  • Marvin is not the stretch 4 he used to be but could still be a piece in our rotation.
Patrick Patterson
  • 5/3/0 on 40/37/79
  • Literally just a body at this point.

The Traded Player Exception

The warriors have a TPE valued at $17.1 mil from the Igoudala trade. I only see us trading down this year or using our personal 2021 pick as assets, so the players we can get back in return are limited. Here are three players we should consider.
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Terrence Ross, G, 29
  • 13/3/1 on 39/32/83 Splits (7 3PA/G), 27mpg
  • $13.5 mil/year through 2023
  • Terrence is a decent wing player who’s having a bit of a down year percentage wise. He makes less than our full TPE and gives us more cap flexibility than someone like Evan Fornier. He is a scorer who’s best as a catch-and-shoot 2 guard and is a match in our system.
Jonas Valanciunas, C, 27
  • 15/11/2 and 1 block on 59/37/72 splits (1.5 3PA/G), 26mpg
  • $15.0 mil/year through 2022
  • Jonas fits our center rotation like a glove with his size and strength. He dominates in matchup dependent stretches against weaker bigs. The Grizzlies will want a better asset than our 2021 pick so he might be an unrealistic target.
Thaddeus Young, F, 31
  • 10/4/1 on 44/34/59 splits (3 3PA/G), 24mpg
  • $14.5 mil/year through 2022
  • Thad is highly coveted by this sub and could be a decent rotation forward, however his athleticism is declining. This year he’s been an average bench player on a bad Bulls team. His only assets are defense, hustle, and instincts. He ‘s an old option and will be 33 at the end of his contract.
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Summary/TLDR:
The Warriors are in hibernation mode but have done a great job pooling assets together for another 5 year ++ run. It was a blessing in disguise that everyone got injured at the same time. Our stars are aging, so it's logical to draft rookies that will grow into our system. The talent pool isn’t elite this year, but there are a few prospects we can’t pass up on. In free agency we have the MLE, TPE, and Minimum contract options to sign players. We have a wide-variety of ways to fill out our roster. I think we maintain championship contention for at least 3 more years.
Statistics, Sources, and Salary Cap Information
https://www.basketball-reference.com/
https://www.espn.com/
https://www.spotrac.com/
submitted by Alwaysmovingup to warriors [link] [comments]

[OC] Every NBA Team Ranked By How Well They Have Performed To Preseason Expectations This Regular Season In 2018-19.

With the regular season now done and dusted I decided it would be cool to take a look back at every NBA team this season and place them into tiers on the level that they have performed at this season.
I made a very similar post to this one last year and it was very positively received so I decided to try writing another post. Here is a link for anyone interested. Of course every situation is different and so I have factored in the teams overall win-loss record but also how they have responded to difficult situations this season such as injuries or the context of how they have performed.
One thing that I am changing this season compared to this year is how I view situations with ‘disgruntled players.’ Last year this was an issue when trying to rank the Spurs season due to Kawhi’s absence. As a result I have decided that if a players lack of success is due to a disgruntled player and NOT one who is injured this will negatively effect them. (Sorry Pelican fans)
This is just my opinion and I am keen to shuffle the list around if people disagree with my results so feel free to leave your input and I will be very willing to take it into consideration. Please don’t be too harsh and I will try to make sure my rankings are as accurate as possible
Just a couple other things to consider:
  • When I state my predicted expectations It as an average of preseason rankings from ESPN, Bleacher Report, Sports Illustrated, CBS Sports, Action Network and 538. Sources: ESPN, BR, CBS Sports, Action Network, 538 CARMELO
  • This is the link to the NBA preseason power ranking predictions that I make reference to in my post.
EDIT: The Boston Celtics were moved from "Didn't Meet Expectations" into the lowest category of "Completely Didn't Meet Expectations." They were so heavily expected to be the number one seed and never really looked to be close to that this season.
EDIT: The Portland Trailblazers were moved from "Exceeded Expectations into the highest category of "Completely Exceeded Expectations. Despite many people predicting them to slide out of the playoffs they were a top 4 seed almost all season.
EDIT: The San Antonio Spurs were moved from "Slightly Exceeded Expectations" into the next highest category of "Exceeded Expectations". Despite an expected slide they finished with a near 50 win season so I under appreciated their season this year.

Completely Exceeded Expectations

  • Milwaukee Bucks WL Record: 60-22
The Milwaukee Bucks were predicted to win 46 games in the preseason with CBS Sports expecting them to win as few as 43 games. They were viewed as a team that would be on the rise with lots of excitement about the prospect of new coach Mike Budenholzer. In /nba preseason power ranking predictions 19/30 voters expected the Bucks to finish as a top 4 seed. However only 1/30 predicted them to finish with a top 2 seed. To finish the regular season with the NBA’s best win loss record is an incredible achievement that very few saw coming. The success of Milwaukee this season can be attributed to many people but the clear stand out is star forward Giannis Antetoukounmpo. In just his sixth season the Greek Freak had one of the greatest seasons in recent history and is expected to poll very highly in MVP voting. It’s going to come down to the wire between him and James Harden but I could see voters giving him the advantage due to his consistency throughout the year, elite defence and greater team success. The performance of the rest of the team also deserves tremendous credit with Middleton making his first all star appearance and Malcom Brogdon joining esteemed company in the 50-40-90 club. The Bucks will be a team to look out for in the playoffs and Giannis will be looking to make a huge statement to the rest of the sporting world.
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  • Sacramento Kings WL Record: 39-43
The Sacramento Kings were predicted to win 25 games in the preseason with 538 expecting them to win as few as 23 games. They were viewed as a team that just didn’t have the right mix of players. In the preseason their power forward and centre rotation seemed too tall to be competitive with questions about the backcourt depth of the team. In /nba preseason power ranking predictions 0/30 voters expected the Kings to feature in the playoffs and while the Kings didn’t qualify for the top 8 in the western conference they were just outside finishing 9th. The Kings had their most successful season in over a decade this season and with the improvement of DeAaron Fox and Buddy Hield they look like a young team with a lot of upside. Sacramento have over $70 million in cap space this offseason so If they can make a splash in free agency they will be a team to look out for.
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  • Brooklyn Nets WL Record: 42-40
The Brooklyn Nets were predicted to win 32 games in the preseason with Bleacher Report expecting them to win as few as 29 games. They were viewed as a team that could start to turn their future around after many years asa bottom 5 team in the league, however thats essentially all it was. In /nba preseason power ranking predictions 0/30 voters expected the Nets to make the playoffs. Not a single voter. The Nets however would finish the season making their first playoff appearance since 2015 overcoming an 8-18 start to the year to qualify. D’Angelo Russell had a career season which culminated in his first all star appearance and emerging as one of the front runners for the most improved player award. The Nets have a lot of money available in free cap space going in to this offseason and with their developing young team they are going to be one to look out for.
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  • Orlando Magic WL Record: 42-40
The Orlando Magic were predicted to win 30 games in the preseason with Bleacher Report expecting them to win as few as 27 games. They were viewed as a team that was going absolutely nowhere in a hurry. Their roster wasn’t rated very highly by many in the league and they seemed to be destined for a bottom seeded finish. In /nba preseason power ranking predictions 0/30 voters expected the Magic to make the playoffs. Not a single voter. The Magic however would finish the season making their first playoff appearance since 2012 overcoming a 20-31 start to the year to qualify. Nikola Vucevic had a career season which culminated in his first all star appearance, Fournier and Gordon played strong roles and Terrence Ross emerged as a genuine contender for the sixth man of the year award. The Magic shocked everyone this season with their improvement and I’m excited to see how the team builds on this year going forward.
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  • Los Angeles Clippers WL Record: 48-34
The Los Angeles Clippers were predicted to win 34 games in the preseason with CBS Sports expecting them to win as few as 29 games. They were viewed as a deep team but ultimately not a team that would be good enough to go anywhere quickly. The departure of stars Blake Griffin and Chris Paul in recent years lead to many thinking that the Clippers would be more amongst the worst in the league and in competition for a high draft pick. In /nba preseason power ranking predictions 0/30 voters expected the Clippers to make the playoffs but they defied the odds to not just make the playoffs but also almost win 50 games. The key stand out for the Clippers this season with all things considered would have to be Lou Williams who averaged 20 points per game and hit many clutch shots through out the season. The Clippers have their sights set on Kawhi Leonard this offseason and with an already deep roster could be a team to look out for.
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  • Portland Trailblazers WL Record: 53-29
The Portland Trailblazers were predicted to win 41 games in the preseason with 538 expecting them to win as few as 39 games. They were viewed as a team that would be vulnerable in the race for playoff spots in a competitive Western Conference. After barely improving their roster in the offseason and after being swept in the first round they were expected to fall back. In /nba preseason power ranking predictions 18/30 voters expected the Blazers to make the playoffs with only one voter expecting them to maintain home court advantage. However as the Trailblazers regularly do they defy peoples expectations and continue to prove themselves as a great team. A late season injury to Jusuf Nurkic in addition to a knee issue from CJ McCollum has people questioning how far they can go in the playoffs but this regular season, Portland has exceeded expectations.
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Exceeded Expectations

  • Denver Nuggets WL Record: 54-28
The Denver Nuggets were predicted to win 48 games in the preseason with ESPN expecting them to win as few as 47 games. They were viewed as a young and exciting team that was unlucky to miss the playoffs last season with 46 wins. In /nba preseason power ranking predictions 25/30 voters expected the Nuggets to make the playoffs but just 2 of those voters expected them to hold home court advantage in the playoffs. The Nuggets encountered a lot of early season injuries but were able to maintain an elite record in large parts due to their outstanding depth. Nikola Jokic had a career season making his first all star appearance and could poll well in MVP voting. Despite all this many people still regard Denver as a bit of a ‘pretender’ that will fail in the playoffs. Time will tell but during the regular season the Denver Nuggets exceeded expectations.
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  • Indiana Pacers WL Record: 48-34
The Indiana Pacers were predicted to win 47 games in the preseason with 538 expecting them to win as few as 43 games. They were viewed as a team that with a deep roster that was just outside the elite group of the Eastern Conference. After completely shattering expectations last season there was a lot of excitement about the potential of the group. In /nba preseason power ranking predictions all 30/30 voters expected the Pacers to make the playoffs 24/30 voters expecting them to finish 4th or 5th, so you might say that they met expectations completely. However the Pacers started 32-15 this season (a 56 win pace) prior to a season ending injury to star guard Victor Oladipo. Despite the injury the team was able to maintain a strong win loss record. It is unlikely that they advance far in the playoffs but for an awesome start to the season when healthy and maintaining a great level of play despite a serious injury I have decided to say that Indiana exceeded expectations.
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  • San Antonio Spurs WL Record: 48-34
The San Antonio Spurs were predicted to win 42 games in the preseason with 538 expecting them to win as many as few as 37 games. They were viewed as a team that would be vulnerable in the race for playoff spots in a competitive Western Conference. Many experts thought that the Spurs run of over 20 consecutive playoff appearances was set to end. In /nba preseason power ranking predictions 21/30 voters expected the Spurs to make the playoffs. The Spurs did look vulnerable at times and only had a one game gap for the 8th seed as late as March but they were able to win 9 consecutive matches and clinch their spot. The Spurs will be an interesting team to watch for in the playoffs due to their inconsistencies away from home this season but they could also create a big upset. Ultimately for making the playoffs when many expected a decline I’d say that the Spurs slightly exceeded expectations. .
  • Atlanta Hawks WL Record: 29-53
The Atlanta Hawks were predicted to win 24 games in the preseason with Bleacher Report expecting them to win as few as 20 games. They were viewed as a young team that would be amongst the worst in the league and ultimately end up tanking for a high draft pick. In /nba preseason power ranking predictions all 30 voters expected the Hawks to miss the playoffs and they did. The goal for this year was never to make playoffs for Atlanta so that isn’t a concern. The Hawks played better than many had anticipated this season with Trae Young having a sensational rookie season and John Collins playing at an all star calibre level. The team is still young and inexperienced so it would not be realistic to expect them to make a jump to the playoffs very soon. However the Hawks appear to be building something and going in the right direction in their rebuild.
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Slightly Exceeded Expectations

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  • Toronto Raptors WL Record: 58-24
The Toronto Raptors were predicted to win 56 games in the preseason with ESPN expecting them to win as few as 53 games. They were viewed as a clear cut top 5 team that would be even better with the addition of Kawhi Leonard to replace DeMar Derozan. In /nba preseason power ranking predictions all 30/30 voters expected the Raptors to make the playoffs as a top 4 seed. A majority of these voters (24/30) also predicted Toronto to finish as a top 2 seed. The Raptors season was filled with little drama as they ultimately did what they were expected to. However the regular season to an extent didn’t really matter much for the Raptors as their main focus is on making a deep playoff push and as a result Kawhi Leonard was rested for over 20 games this season. As it currently stands the Raptors have met expectations but it all comes down to what happens in the following weeks. An underrated reason for the Raptors success this year has also been Pascal Siakams breakout season. By posting career highs in every stat including doubling his points total from last season he is the strong favourite for the most improved player award.
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Met Expectations

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  • Detroit Pistons WL Record: 41-41
The Detroit Pistons were predicted to win 39 games in the preseason with ESPN expecting them to win 38 games. They were viewed as a playoff team but almost by default with many expecting them to round out the playoff picture despite a losing record. In /nba preseason power ranking predictions 18/30 voters expected the Pistons to make the playoffs. The Pistons were an inconsistent team throughout the regular season going long stretches with few wins but also having remarkable runs of form. Things got close towards the end of the season but Detroit was able to limp towards the playoffs. Blake Griffin had one of his best seasons before knee injuries limited his production in the back end of the season. Its still to be seen just how much of an impact Detroit can make in the playoffs but simply for making it into the top 8 they have met expectations.
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  • Utah Jazz WL Record: 50-32
The Utah Jazz were predicted to win 51 games in the preseason with Bleacher Report expecting them to win 51 games. They were viewed as a well rounded team that was be able to emerge as a Western Conference threat. In /nba preseason power ranking predictions all 30/30 voters expected the Jazz to make the playoffs and despite starting the season just 14-17 the Jazz would eventually find their groove. Donovan Mitchell had a phenomenal second half of the season following a poor start and Rudy Gobert maintained his elite defence that could see him pick up his second consecutive DPOY award. A lot of Utah’s ranking could come down to how they do in the playoffs in the end but through out the regular season, despite a poor start, as a collective Utah were able to meet expectations and achieve a 50 win season.
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  • Philadelphia 76ers WL Record: 51-31
The Philadelphia 76ers were predicted to win 53 games in the preseason with 538 expecting them to win 53 games. They were viewed as one of the top 5 teams in the league that with a dynamic young duo would be able to really challenge for a high playoff position. In /nba preseason power ranking predictions all 30/30 voters expected the 76ers to make the playoffs with 16 of those voters predicting a 3rd placed finish for Philadelphia. The 76ers had the 3rd seed secure for a majority of the season and really didn’t encounter a lot of drama as they progressed throughout the year. Trades for Jimmy Butler and Tobias Harris through out the season have put more pressure on the team to make a deep playoff push and reach all the way for the finals. However as things currently stand, for the regular season, Philadelphia were able to meet expectations with minimal fuss.
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  • Memphis Grizzlies WL Record: 33-49
The Memphis Grizzlies were predicted to win 33 games in the preseason with 538 expecting them to win 33 games. They were viewed as a team that wasn’t quite bad enough to be tanking but not quite good enough to make a run for the playoffs. In /nba preseason power ranking predictions just 1/30 voters expected the Grizzlies to make the playoffs and that was an 8th seed. The Grizzlies had their moments through out the year and even started a promising 12-5 but quickly dropped off from there. The Grizzlies roster changed a lot through out the season a league record 28 players suited up in a Memphis jersey this season. Marc Gasol was traded mid season and the Grizzlies stuck with Mike Conley. It will be interesting to see how they approach the offseason with their current awkwardly constructed roster.
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  • Golden State Warriors WL Record: 57-25
The Golden State Warriors were predicted to win 61 games in the preseason with Bleacher Report expecting them to win 60 games. They were viewed as the clear cut best team in the NBA who would be heavy favourites to win their 3rd consecutive championship. In /nba preseason power ranking predictions 27/30 voters expected the Warriors to qualify as the Western Conference number one seed and the other 3 voters picked them as 2nd. The Warriors may not have won as many games as expected this season but for finishing 1st in the West ultimately I am ranking them as having met expectations. The reason is that we all know the Warriors are likely to win the championship and therefore their regular season win total isn’t really a concern. I would be interested to see how other people have seen the Warriors season this year and whether or not this was the right category to place them in.
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  • Houston Rockets WL Record: 53-29
The Houston Rockets were predicted to win 55 games in the preseason with ESPN expecting them to win 55 games. They were viewed as one of the key contenders to compete with Golden State and challenge for the championship. In /nba preseason power ranking predictions 24/30 voters expected the Rockets to qualify as the Western Conference number two seed and all voters predicted them to have home court advantage. The Rockets season was definitely a more difficult one to judge. They began the season 11-14 losing many games that they should not have lost, they then were dealt heavy injury blows to Chris Paul and Clint Capela. However from there became arguably the story of the season. James Harden. The superstar guard would go on an incredible scoring streak scoring at least 30 points in 32 consecutive games and absolutely carrying the team offensively and producing one of the greatest offensive seasons in NBA history. Harden could very well soon be the back to back MVP this season but time will tell how things transpire. Overall for the Rockets they did decrease their win total from 65 games last season but for ultimately finishing with home court in the West despite their injuries they met their expectations.
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  • Charlotte Hornets WL Record: 39-44
The Charlotte Hornets were predicted to win 36 games in the preseason with ESPN expecting them to win 36 games. They were viewed as a fringe playoff team that didn’t really have a clear number 2 option after Kemba Walker. In /nba preseason power ranking predictions just 7/30 voters expected the Hornets to make the playoffs. It’s a little strange in a way because while the Hornets did essentially meet expectations they will have finished this season as a disappointment. Despite winning a lot more towards the final month of the season the Hornets really left their run till too late. Kemba Walker will enter free agency this off season and with the current state of the Hornets he has a big choice on his mind. Whether he stays or goes Charlotte have a lot to work on this offseason. .
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Slightly Didn't Meet Expectations

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  • OKC Thunder WL Record: 49-33
The OKC Thunder were predicted to win 50 games in the preseason with 538 expecting them to win as many as many as 53 games. They were viewed as a team that would with much improved bench depth would be able to solidify themselves as one of the clear cut top teams in the Western Conference. In /nba preseason power ranking predictions all 30/30 voters expected the Thunder to make the playoffs with 20 of those voters predicting home court advantage for OKC. The Thunder began the season in extremely impressive fashion with Paul George looking like an MVP candidate and were 37-19 and within touching distance of the second seed before struggling post all star break. The Thunder failed to secure home court advantage but ultimately did have a great first half of the season so I feel inclined to say that they only slightly failed to meet expectations.
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  • Dallas Mavericks WL Record: 33-49
The Dallas Mavericks were predicted to win 35 games in the preseason with CBS Sports expecting them to win as few as 38 games. They were viewed as a young team that would be in the 10-12 range in the standings but finish the season tanking. In /nba preseason power ranking predictions just 1/30 voters expected the Mavericks to make the playoffs and that was an 8th seed. The Mavericks had their moments through out the year and even started a promising 15-11 but injuries and a drastic midseason roster change lead them in a different direction. Four starers in Jordan, Smith, Barnes and Matthews were all traded to different teams with the Mavericks set to rebuild their future around one key player. Luka Doncic. The biggest highlight of the year was rookie sensation Luka Doncic who averaged 21 points per game and show cased some terrific playmaking skills. Although he struggled a little towards the end of the season Doncic looks like a perennial all star for years to come and should be the favourite for the rookie of the year award.
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  • Miami Heat WL Record: 40-42
The Miami Heat were predicted to win 43 games in the preseason with Bleacher Report expecting them to win as many as 45 games. They were viewed as a veteran team that had achieved a lot of success in seasons past and as a result would be a playoff team due to their defined locker room and team culture. In /nba preseason power ranking predictions 28/30 voters expected the Heat to make the playoffs but they fell short and were unable to give Dwyane Wade a final full farewell tour. With the retirement of Wade now allowing for a deeper look into the Heat without emotion it appears the future really doesn’t seem too promising for Miami. They are bound by some poor contracts and do not really have a younger star ready to take the reigns. The Heat had an underwhelming season and its hard to see them bouncing back too quickly.
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Didn't Meet Expectations

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  • Chicago Bulls WL Record: 22-60
The Chicago Bulls were predicted to win 28 games in the preseason with ESPN expecting them to win as many as 31 games. They were viewed as a young team that was still in the middle of a long term rebuild. They were expected to be a mostly competitive team but ultimately one that didn’t really have a chance to make playoffs. In /nba preseason power ranking predictions just 1/30 voters expected the Bulls to make the playoffs and that was an 8th seed. There was some promising development for the Bulls with Zach Lavine having a career season and Lauri Markannen building on a strong rookie season but the glimpses were few and far between. In the end though, the Bulls didn’t have a good season going backwards in wins from the year prior.
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  • Washington Wizards WL Record: 32-50
The Washington Wizards were predicted to win 44 games in the preseason with 538 expecting them to win as many as 48 games. They were viewed as a veteran team that with the addition of Dwight Howard would be a solidified playoff team. In /nba preseason power ranking predictions almost everyone, 29/30 voters expected the Wizards to feature in the playoffs. An early season injury limited John Wall to just 32 games and Dwight Howard only played 9 games as well which could be to blame for the Wizards lack of success but in reality they had been playing poorly prior to the injury either way. A few mid season trades saw them move Otto Porter and Kelly Oubre for Jabari Parker and Bobby Portis but they were barely anymore successful with them. With John Wall still sidelined all of next season there isn’t a lot of optimism regarding the Wizards and there is a lot of uncertainty about their direction.
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  • Minnesota Timberwolves WL Record: 36-45*
The Minnesota Timberwolves were predicted to win 44 games in the preseason with Bleacher Report expecting them to win as many as 49 games. They were viewed as a fringe playoff team that would likely be one of the unlucky teams to only just miss out on the playoffs. In /nba preseason power ranking predictions only, 3/30 voters expected the Wolves to feature in the playoffs with all three voters putting them as an 8th seed. Early season drama with Jimmy Butler did little to help the team as they would eventually trade him following a 4-9 start. The Wolves had little runs of form but ultimately never really looked like a threat to make a playoff push. A point of optimism for Minnesota through out the year was the resurgence of Derrick Rose who had arguably his best season since his injury troubles. However going forward the Wolves seem to be rather directionless especially with the Andrew Wiggins contract.
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  • Phoenix Suns WL Record: 19-63
The Phoenix Suns were predicted to win 28 games in the preseason with ESPN expecting them to win as many as 30 games. They were viewed as a team, that with the addition of number one draft pick DeAndre Ayton, would finally start to show some improvement and Devin Booker was expected to lead the team back to some semblance of relevance. In /nba preseason power ranking predictions 0/30 voters expected the Suns to feature in the playoffs. Expectations were already low for the Suns but they were expected to be competitive, they were anything but that as they started the season just 4-24 and failed to win even 20 games for the whole year. The Suns will be in the lottery this offseason for the tenth time in eleven years and with some recent draft failures Suns fans will be praying for some success there. Despite being a poor team Phoenix at least seem to have some sort of direction which should eventually bode well for them.
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Completely Didn't Meet Expectations

  • Boston Celtics WL Record: 49-33
The Boston Celtics were predicted to win 57 games in the preseason with CBS Sports expecting them to win as many as 59 games. After an incredible playoff run the season prior they were viewed as an exciting young super team that would not only be a solid playoff team but many expected the Celtics to be the second best team in the league. In /nba preseason power ranking predictions 23/30 voters expected the Celtics to finish first in the Eastern conference with the other 7 voters expecting them to finish second. However what ultimately happened was the team would struggle to win 50 games in a season filled with drama. Tatum and Rozier didn’t play as expected, team chemistry issues arose, Hayward failed to recover and Brad Stevens’ coaching was sub par. The Celtics however are still an incredibly talented team and it would not be surprising to see them make the NBA finals. Although it wouldn’t be entirely surprising to see them lose in the first round either. With Kyrie Irvings impending free agency this will be a critical post season push by Boston.
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  • New York Knicks WL Record: 17-65
The New York Knicks were predicted to win 27 games in the preseason with Action Network expecting them to win as many as 30 games. They were viewed as a young and inexperienced team that would struggle to win many games especially with a season ending injury to Kristaps Porzingis. In /nba preseason power ranking predictions 0/30 voters expected to see New York in the playoffs so its amazing in a way that the Knicks still underperformed. The Knicks had multiple losing streaks of over 10 games and where the worst team in the NBA for large parts of the season. The Knicks made a huge gamble at the trade deadline effectively trading Porzingis to the Mavericks to free up cap space. It is yet to be seen whether the gamble will pay dividends as the attempt to pursue big name free agents but for having one of the worst records in the NBA this season its fair to say the Knicks failed to meet expectations despite how low they really were.
  • New Orleans Pelicans WL Record: 33-49
The New Orleans Pelicans were predicted to win 45 games in the preseason with CBS Sports expecting them to win as many as 48 games. They were viewed as a team that could really build on a strong playoff run and Anthony Davis was expected to take a step up and become a legitimate MVP candidate. In /nba preseason power ranking predictions 23/30 voters expected the Pelicans to feature in the playoffs and instead the Pelicans essentially imploded. Davis requested a trade midseason after an underwhelming season and the Pelicans just fell from there. Davis was placed on a team imposed minutes restriction and the teams lack of depth was severely exposed. Its hard to see what the future holds for New Orleans and it is very much reliant on what unfolds with the Anthony Davis situation and whether they can build around Jrue Holiday going forward.
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  • Cleveland Cavaliers WL Record: 19-63
The Cleveland Cavaliers were predicted to win 31 games in the preseason with CBS Sports expecting them to win as many as 32 games. They were viewed as a veteran team that would struggle following the departure of Lebron James in free agency but would be able to compete for playoffs in a weak Eastern conference. Kevin Love was expected to lead the team and return to his Minnesota form. In /nba preseason power ranking predictions only 7/30 voters expected the Cavaliers to feature in the playoffs but they somehow still underperformed on those expectations. Kevin Love was injured for a majority of the season, Kyle Korver and George Hill were traded, JR Smith disappeared somewhere and the team quickly changed its focus. A positive for Cavalier fans was the development of Colin Sexton in the back half of the season but ultimately to follow 4 straight finals appearances with a bottom 3 record makes the season a major disappointment for the Cavaliers.
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  • Los Angeles Lakers WL Record: 37-45
The Los Angeles Lakers were predicted to win 47 games in the preseason with CBS Sports expecting them to win as many as 49 games. They were viewed as a team that would be on the rise with lots of excitement with the addition of Lebron James to complete and teams exciting young core of emerging talents. In /nba preseason power ranking predictions 28/30 voters expected the Lakers to feature in the playoffs, 6/30 voters even predicted them to have home court. However what eventuated was a forgettable season for the Lakers as the underachieved tremendously. Lebron James missed 16 games through injury before infamously being ‘managed’ through the remainder of the year. The Lakers playoff chances weren’t completely ruled as late as February but a horrific stretch of losses against bottom seeded teams late in the season saw them miss the playoffs by quite a margin. Its going to be a long offseason for the Lakers.
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[OC] Finding Bargains in 2019 Free Agency

A week ago I started a series about the 2019 Free Agency. I've written about all the position and looking for 5 kind of players:
Under the radar Free Agents: That's the middle class guys that I think might not have the market they should, offering an opportunity for a team like the Pacers, that isn't a FA destination, to get a good contract or a team like the Lakers, to offer living in Los Angeles + minutes and media attention if he decides to bet on himself on a even smaller number.
Investment: That's a younger guy that might be available usually becuase of some tax or cap situation, that a team could take a chance on him with a longer contract paying off in the future.
Minimum guys to fill out the roster: Some teams with no cap space still need players to compete, and that's the goal here. Look out for this part in the Center part.
Just give him another shot: That's a let down player that could comeback in 2019-20, and teams should buy his stock while it's down.
Not cheap, but might be worth it: That doesn't fit this post all that well, but some players are just no-brainers, hard to get production and have the potential to outplay even a richer deal.
[OC] Targeting Point Guards in 2019 Free Agency
[OC] Targeting Shooting Guards in 2019 Free Agency
[OC] Targeting Small Forwards in 2019 Free Agency
[OC] Targeting Power Forwards in 2019 Free Agency
[OC] Targeting Centers in 2019 Free Agency
Another post I've made and it's really interesting for this discussion, was mocking the off-season in order to understand how much money will be available to each tier of players, to better predict the contracts:
[OC] Mocking the 2019 Free Agency: How much money is out there?
 
Looking for good deals in 2019 FA, be aware that I won't be talking about guys like Patrick Beverley (everyone's talking about him), Brook Lopez, Dewayne Dedmon, Danny Green, and Bojan Bogdanovic because every team is looking at them, and they're in a really high point of their evaluation, which means that they're probably going to come back to earth soon and you'll have overpaid for unsustainable play.
The profile here are under the radar, underrated guys, that might be available for the right price. It contributes if its original team isn't looking to re-sign them, because that's minus one very important competitor with bird rights.
 

Targeting Point Guards:

Under the radar Free Agents:

*Player name, age on day 1 next season, type of FA, team he lastly played for
Ricky Rubio, 29 years old, UFA, Utah Jazz
It's not a good sign that every team that signed Rubio ended up desperately trying to trade him in order to upgrade the team's ceiling. But Rubio still has good age and he's a really smart player and good at D. Even with its fit problems, if you can get a low end starter for close to the MLE and you in need in that position, that's worth it. A young team might look into him as well, because of his ability to make teammates better in the regular season.
My prediction: 8-14 million
My prediction: 6-10 million
Tyus Jones, 23 years old, RFA, Minnesota Timberwolves
Tyus just had a really bad year, and that will probably cost him a lot. The Wolves also never looked quite invested in him so the restricted in RFA might not mean that much. A young but already really smart PG, would fit well with a young team.
My prediction: 5-8 million
Austin Rivers, 27 years old, UFA, Houston Rockets
Rockets probably won't actually re-sign and he showed he can stayed in the court even at the highest level of basketball, an incredible sign for a team that has high aspirations, such as the Lakers, I would also like him on the Warriors.
My prediction: 5-8 million
Ish Smith, 31 years old, UFA, Detroit Pistons
Ish runs the backup unit very well, and he made the team look better than Reggie Jackson did imo. He won't age well but on a 2 year contract I think he would be a pretty good back-up. He's more of a regular season guy though and would fit well for those teams fighting to get into the playoffs, he's worth it a Room-MLE.
My prediction: 4-7 million
Nando de Colo, 32 years old, RFA CSKA Moswcow - Raptors have his rights, thanks cartkp
After ruling the Euro League for the past 5 years, he's rumoured to be coming back to the NBA. The guy has an euroleague career 65 TS%, is a big enough defender where he'll be able to be hidden on a 2 or 3 because I don't think he can guard NBA 1s. The league just might have gotten its new FT% leader, De Colo has shot 95% from the line recently. He's a great shooter and will fit well in the league, he's signifficantly better than Teodosic in that matter I believe.
My prediction: 4-6 million
Elfryd Payton, 25 years old, UFA, New Orleans Pelicans
This might be my favorite one. Payton played really well this year, but got some strange years that kept him . He shot 32% from 3, but he did shot at a bigger volume, and the team played really well with him on the court, while being long enough to give you good flexibility on D. He's not quite on the level where his 3 point shot will be guarded on the playoffs though and that's a worry, but it might be worth to bet on it developing since it appears to be trending that way.
My prediction: minimum salary - 4 million
 
My favorite fits: Rubio - Suns, Jones - Suns, Rivers - Lakers, Ish Smith - Hornets, de Colo - Lakers, Payton - not sure.

Just give him another shot

Jeremy Lin, 31 years old, UFA, Toronto Raptors
Look, I know he played badly with the Raptors, but with a summer of recovery from his injury, he might comeback to his form of before injury (which was a ruptured patellar tendon, that has a good prognosis of recovery), and you can probably get him as a 3rd string PG right now for the minimum, so it's a low risk, high reward move.
My prediction: minimum salary

Minimum players: best fill-out roster options

Brad Wanamaker, 30 years old, RFA, Boston Celtics
He was an elite player in Europe and looked really well in limited minutes with the Celtics, I personally though he gave the C's better minutes than Rozier last year. The Celtics will need cap space and they might just let him go, and imo he could easily be a backup in this league, playing minutes in the playoffs. I would like on almost every team, but what about him with injury-prone, no cap-space Miami Heat?
MCW, 28 years old, UFA, Orlando Magic
Wow, he's already 28 years old?? Yeah, but I do think he really rejuvenated his career in the Magic, with great D and stability, and I really like wing sized PGs. I kind of would like to see him in the Shaun Livingston role in the Warriors.
Almost made it: Shabazz Napier, Shane Larkin

The Investment

Alex Caruso, 25 years old, RFA, LA Lakers
The Lakers will need every cap space they can get and even in that case right now they're close to 32.0 million in most accounts, but these accounts don't consider the 550k extra in cap holds if they actually keep Caruso's cap hold instead of trading him. That would bring them to about 1.3 million dollars under the max to give it to a player in 4 years, what would mean close to 5.5 million in money a player would've to give away. That might just not happen if they sign a max player who wants every penny of it and teams should take advantage of that. Caruso absolutely could have a career as a back-up in this league, he's big and more athletic than he might appear, his 3 point shot is a work in progress, but in a good way.

Not cheap, but might be worth it

Tomas Satoransky 27 years old, RFA, Wizards
The Wizards will have 95 million dollars on Beal, Wall, Mahinmi, Howard, Hachimura and Troy Brown, that plus re-signing Bobby Portis (who rejected a 12 mi/yr extension byw), Ariza and Bryant, the Wizards just might not have the space to re-sign Sato. A wing sized guard, with great spot-up shooting, cutting and being just a really smart player, Sato is perfect for a contender. I'd throw a front loaded 50 million/4 years contract on him, because I don't believe the Wizards are getting even close to the tax to keep such a team. He fits anywhere but I would love him on Dallas or even Indiana.
My prediction: 12-15 million

Comments:

Some people suggested George Hill on this one, but I think he'll get a fair contract, he looked good on the bucks and I think many win now teams will look at him if they strike out on Pat Beverley, giving more of a fair contract than a bargain. Unfortunately this post good a bit outdated once Collinson retired. I've uptaded the Caruso situation as well.
 
 

Targeting Shooting Guards

The shooting guard is the position with the lowest average WAR according to Kevin Pelton, the weakest position in the league by a fair amount. If you position yourselve to acquire solid value in this position with short money this means you did a good job, because you'll have more money spent in other positions in the NBA with less scarcity of talent, making your money worth it.
Hornets
Mavs
Pistons
Warriors
Indiana (Dipo's coming back only in January)
Lakers
Memphis
Minnesota
OKC
All these team definitely could use a new 2. Teams in bold will have significant cap space this summer. But if you dont, that's not a problem here, we're finding the right guys for each team.
 

Under the radar Free Agents

Player name, age on day 1 next season, type of FA, team he lastly played for
Rodney Hood, 27 years old, UFA, Portland Trail Blazers
The Blazers reportedly know he's out of their league (they'll only have the taxpayer MLE) and pretty much found a replacement for him already, so that's one less contender for the player. He's been quite incosistent but it seems like he found himself in the playoffs. Has a bit of off the court worries but a smart management can deal with that, he has starting level talent, ok defense, and playmaking ability at 6'7" at a great age and that's a pretty hard thing to get with less than 20 a year. He didn't play well in the regular season though, and that's something I'd alert you: He's a bet. But a lot of teams in this league need to start taking risks in order to be a contender. If you can get him at the MLE (9.2) for multiple years? That's a great bet.
My question for him is what's he looking for? Is it the next 4 years of a contract or a 1 or 2 years of contract in order to prove himself to get the pay day of his life? If it's the second one, he might be the right guy for the Lakers. They have plenty of minutes to go around and he'd take a big playmaking role, if he's willing to bet on himself and take a bit less.
My prediction: 8-15 million
Wesley Matthews, 33 years old, UFA, Indiana Pacers
I really liked him on the Boston series, he has that set os skills that's essential for a wing, good size, good individual defense, great 3 point shooter, but he might be looking more for his last pay day right now, he'll be 33 next season and really only fits win now teams. But I think he might age well enough to give him a 3 year contract, or maybe a partially guaranteed 3rd year. I'm really not hearing anything about him, I think he went totally under the radar and that he'll get significantly less than I was expecting.
It's hard to put a fit for a guy that fits really anywhere (in terms of playstyle), but I'd really like him on the Timberwolves. If OKC could make some trades (like a Steven Adams salary dump) and get a taxpayer MLE they'd be my perfect fit.
My prediction: 7-10 million
Reggie Bullock, 28 years old, UFA, LA Lakers
Reggie has great size at 6'7", plays ok defense and his shot is good. He shot 34.3% on the Lakers last year, but he's a career 39+% shooter, so it's pretty likely that he'll regress. Theoretically he fits well anywhere, but I don't quite trust his off ball defense and his basketball IQ that much. I think he'd fit well in OKC, with Adams, George and other long defenders to cover up his mistakes.
My prediction: 4-6 million
Garrett Temple, 33 years old, UFA, Indiana Pacers
Temple plays really good defense and I quite liked him on the Clippers. I think he went under the radar because nobody whatches the Grizzlies + He didn't play that much on the Clippers. But that's alright, with temple you know what you're getting, really good defense with an OK 3 point shot, the enought for some gravity in the playoffs (career 35.3% shooter). He's getting up there in age though, so I'd stick to a 2 year contract with him.
I think he'll be really cheap and considering the Hornets situation I think he's a good fit there. Lamb probably isn't coming back.
My prediction: 4-6 million
Wayne Ellington, 31 years old, UFA, Indiana Pacers
Detroit didn't quite miss Bullock. Ellington gives you 90% of what Bullock did, with better and more agressive off ball movement, but lesser size and defense. I really like the idea for the Warriors to go full offense and just dare team to outscore them. I think Ellington is also quite smart and would fit well in the Warriors, as he's probably looking to an opportunity to get more minutes so he can get that last contract. I'd say the Warriors are the perfect fit.
My prediction: min-5 million
 

Not cheap, but might be worth it

Jeremy Lamb, 27 years old, UFA, Charlotte Hornets
I'm just not seeing a lot of hype around Jeremy Lamb. He pretty much gives you what Hood does with better defense and actual consistency. He's also a great rebounder, and runs pick and roll really well. A (small) wing-sized playmaker with great age.
The fit is the main reason why I think he's here. He'd fit really well with the Hornets, Pistons (they just need some playmaking), Memphis (they like to acquire these smart deals like Kyle Anderson), Portland, Washington, but none of these teams have cap space! He'd fit well with the Lakers, but I think they will look for either a max guy or cheaper players, Indiana on the long run doesn't makes sense and I don't love the fit in the Mavs (with him taking the ball off Porzingis and Doncic's hands. I just don't see it. The best fit for cap space teams I found was the Kings, but he's kind of too similar to Bogdanovic, and Buddy is the starting 2. I think there's some (like 5%) chance he drops to the MLE. And that would be crazy considering the talent he showed this season.
My prediction: MLE-17 million.
 

Minimum players: best fill-out roster options

Iman Shumpert, 29 years old, UFA, Houston Rockets
After a not good end of the season with the Rockets, there's a good chance Shumpert ends up traded like a salary and than getting waived, or that's at least what multiple teams are thinking will happen. Otherwise Shumpert is way down in the list of teams priorities in a free agency of 200 players. His market might have dried up if the Rockets can't find a trade possibility and that would be a good opportunity for a lot of teams that need to fill out their rosters.
Alex Abrines, 26 years old, UFA, OKC Thunder
Where's Alex Abrines?? We haven't received any information about him since he left OKC. He's still a young good shooter with size, and if you can get that at the minimum you've appropiately filled that roster spot. The last I heard was a report he'd comeback to Barcelona but nothing after. I think he can make it in the NBA, I hope he comes back.
Rodney McGruder, 28 years old, UFA, LA Clippers, but really Miami Heat
He had a down season after a good 2017-18 season. The reason he's here actually isn't that I think he's a great use of a minimum. I think he's ok, but the roster spots in this league are getting really low for the quantity of talent out there. McGruder is a 3 year veteran so he still qualifies for a 2-way contract. In similar way to what the Rockets did with Danuel House, I'd take a seriously look at McGruder as a 2-way player, a really no risk ok reward if when the music stops he's out of chairs.
BONUS: JR Smith, 34 years old, UFA, Cleveland Cavs
I think JR still has 1 year in him, and there's a high chance he'll traded and waived or simply waived. A great 3&D in the really early buyout market.
Edit: Since the Original post JR has been linked to the Lakers, so I'll add another BONUS:
BONUS: Kyle Korver, 38 years old, UFA, Utah Jazz
The Grizzlies are probably buying him out at some point, and even though he had a really bad playoff series against the Rockets he can still shoot the hell of the ball and log in about 12-15 minutes for a team in the playoffs in some series. I might like him with the Warriors off ball movement. I'd like him on Minnesota as well.
 

Just give him another shot

KCP, 26 years old, UFA, LA Lakers
Buy low. KCP it's in the top 15 players who underperformed relatively to 2017-18.
He's actually my no.1 guy here. He ended last season on the right note, a good focused season out of the holophotes might give you back that tenacious defender with an ok 3 point shot (that actually looks better than it is). He played himself into the taxpayeroom-MLE, and there's talks about the Lakers bringing him back with it, but I'd try to get him locked under a 4 year cheap contract really bad. If I could get him for close 4/40 million honestly I'd do it, but 4/32 would be an excellent investment.
My prediction: 4-8 million, but in a short contract most realistically
 
 

Targeting Small Forwards

First I'd like to say that this's a really weak mid-tier and low-tier class for Small Forwards. It was really hard to find the right guys, and I don't even feel that strongly about some of them.
Players I'd like to talk a bit about it:
Trevor Ariza is a good player, but considering he has a really strong name in terms being a long time veteran and a known name in a really week mid-tier small forward class, I think he'll get a good contract and considering what he did last year, might be even a slight overpay. That's why he didn't maek the list.
Rudy Gay is also a good possibility here, but the Spurs have his early bird rights (They could pay him up to 17.5 million) and could pretty much match any offer (they aren't close to the tax), so I don't see many reasons for him to leave there.
 

Under the radar Free Agents

*Player name, age on day 1 next season, type of FA, team he lastly played for
Justin Holiday, 30 years old, UFA, Memphis Grizzlies
When you're looking for bargains you should players who for some reason had a worst than expected year, and look for the reason he might regress to the player he once was. Justin Holiday was PIPM's no.1 negative change guy last year. He was just really bad at both the Bulls and a let down at the Grizzlies. If he fits right with your team go for it, he'd be good playing for the Rockets.
My prediction: 5-8 million
James Ennis, 29 years old, UFA, Philadelphis 76ers
Ennis shows how important is to have a guy that can play in the playoffs. If it was up to Korkmaz or McConnell the 76ers just wouldn't have taken the Raptors to 7. 3&D guy that could've even helped the Rockets if they didn't trade him. Ennis would be pretty good in a LeBron team, honestly I'd start him and bring Kuzma off the bench.
My prediction: 4-6 million

Minimum players: best fill-out roster options

Darius Miller, 29 years old, UFA, New Orleans Pelicans
3 point and no D, Darius Miller is an ok guy to bring out of the bench, and you know what you're getting with him. His minutes flutuated a lot last year due to injuries, but he was playable in the 2017-18 playoffs. Something to think about is that Miller was Anthony Davis teammate both in College and in New Orleans, but honestly I think he'd fit better with a team like the Nuggets and the Warriors.
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, 24 years old, UFA, Brooklyn Nets
Nets aren't bringing him back, but he's still a young wing that can defend and it's a super versatile guy, played some small ball 5 in the playoffs and honestly wasn't killed there. That's a good bet any team could do.
I'd think on Sefolosha, being 35 years old, he took a big step back last season, and only had about 12 MPG with the Jazz, he might just be too washed out to be a trustable player particularly in the playoffs. Stanley Johnson was also an idea but the guy just seems a bit too far from not being an offensive net minus.
 

Investment:

Danuel House, 26 years old, RFA, Houston Rockets
The Rockets have House's non-bird rights, what means that they can pay him nothing more than the 120% minimum, what means they'd have to use their MLE to really keep him. If Butler's coming, they'd be so pressed next to the appron having to hire like 10 guys to fill out the roster, that they might not match a good salary.
They also might not match it they're still worried about paying the tax. They already have 117 million on 6 players, filling in with 7 minimum guys they'd be on about 129 million, so they're still very close to the tax (132 million). Offer him a long term contract on about 6-7 million and watch Fertitta counting the pennies.
My prediction: 5-7 million

Just give him another chance:

Jabari Parker, 24 years old, UFA, Washington Wizards
I thought that he played badly, but athletically he was alright. Parker can really score and restore his value to a similar level to Kyle Kuzma (who's 4 months young) in the right fit. I'd bet on giving him a long term contract if I'm the Kings, Knicks or the Clippers if I have no where else to spend at. I'd happily give him a 4 years 35 million with about 24 million in guaranteed money
My prediction: 5-10 million

Comments:

I didn't like that post as much, there just isn't a lot of answers here, the mid-tier SF is a big weakness of the market.
 
 

Targeting Power Forwards

The Power Forward is a position where in the playoffs wings that can play small ball 5 are really valuable, so it's a position of high demand, finding players that can be serviceable back-ups in the playoffs for close to the minimum is already a major victory.
2 interesting players I'd like to talk about are Nikola Mirotic and Al Farouq Aminu, They are good players that might not comeback to their original team but with the strong market of its position I don't believe they will provide good contract because they still have far too many weakness exploitable in the playoffs to justify a starter level of contract.
Another interesting player would be Carmelo Anthony. Like I said, having a serviceable back-up player for the minimum at the wing is a major win, and I won't pencil Melo as a sure thing as a good back-up 4, but I think he can still make a comeback to play 10-15 minutes on a good team.

Under the radar Free Agents

*Player name, age on day 1 next season, type of FA, team he lastly played for
DeMarre Carroll, 33 years old, UFA, Brooklyn Nets
Carroll is a not so good 3, deteriorated D kind of player, who didn't play well in the last playoffs, but if I don't think it would kill you to give 10-15 minutes for him a game in the playoffs with his hustle and at least teams won't let him open in the corner. That's the kind of impact James Ennis gave to the 76ers and you can see the importance in that, Carroll even gives you a bit better size, experience and some veteran leadership. A team like Sacramento could give him a contract.
My prediction: 5-9 million/year, maybe 12/2.
JaMychal Green, 29 years old, UFA, LA Clippers
Green was always a favorite of mine, but this year he showed his full potential on the Clippers, particularly in the playoffs with those 5 fouls in 1 quarter agaisnt the Warriors as a small ball 5. Highly versatile, a 4/5 that can hit 3s, JaMychal Green has obvious fit in the modern NBA, and would fit well as a backup 5 in the playoffs with the Lakers.
My prediction: 4-8 million/year
Mike Scott, 31 years old, UFA, Philadelphia
Scott has had a similar path to Green and has a similar style of play, with similar fit. I'd call him a plan B to Green though.
My prediction: 4-8 million/year
Taj Gibson 34 years old, UFA, Minnesota Timberwolves
Taj is a bit washed up, but he could be really good as a back-up 4 and playing some small ball 5. He's still a beast at the boards, still plays great D, and still is a very efficient offensive player. He even shot some 3s this year, a skill that would be very interesting for him to expand as he ages.
My prediction: 5-7 million/year, what about 18/3?
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, 24 years old, UFA, Brooklyn Nets
The Nets made him a unrestricted FA and that should interest other teams. I don't think RHJ will ever be a 3 point shooter, but he's a great defender, and could fit teams in a specific role as a D specialist, in similar way to Royce O'Neale. He had a great 3rd year, with a TS% of 55%, but than he regressed a lot on year (got less to the line, got to 46.4 TS%). If he can bounce back he's a solid rotation wing, so that's a good bet particularly because I think he'll go basically for free this offseason.
My prediction: min-5 million/year, signs a 1 year deal
 
My favorite fits: Carroll - Kings, Green - Lakers or Celtics, Scott - 76ers, Gibson - Hawks, RHJ - Suns

Not cheap, but might be worth it

Thaddeus Young, 31 years old, UFA, Indiana Pacers
Let's start with my no.1 guy in the position: Thaddeus Young. The Pacers reportedly are planing on Playing sabonis at the 4 and won't resign him. I'm very curious to see a more aggresive team that would put Young more at the 5 and encourage him to shoot more, as he already matches agaisnt 5s in most matchups, and could use his post-up game against small ball lineups. When Oladipo was there, Young was lethal in the pick and roll this past season, and I wonder what would he do with a good pairing. Young definitely gives you starter production for a not that big of a price. I really woud like to see him on the Jazz, or even in the Mavs playing aside Porzingis.
My prediction: 11-15 million/year, maybe 50/4 or 45/3

Minimum players: best fill-out roster options

Jeff Green, 33 years old, UFA, Washington Wizards
Jeff Green had good size and is still really athletic, he can shoot and is still an iron man, rarely missing games. He was a solid player last year (The advanced numbers confirm that, RPM of -0.83 which is about average for a SF) and is the kind of 3 and D wing that teams really need, I definetely believe he can log in playoff minutes without hurting it's team. Minnesotta could use him to sub for Dario Saric.
Kenneth Faried, 29 years old, UFA, Houston Rockets
Faried rejuvenated his career with the Rockets, showing versatility and that he still is that monster of an athlete. His rim-running + vertical spacing already has some value, his 8/21 in 3 PT shooting don't really gives you a lot of indication, but he being confident enough to shoot it in game might. The advanced numbers showed him as a neutral player (-0.17 RPM, +0.37 PIPM), what's good for back-up. The team certainly would need some adjustments in terms of defense. He should probably re-sign with the Rockets though.
Luol Deng, 34 years old, UFA, Minnesota Timberwolves
Deng can't be overused, but he's still a really smart team defender, the ability to get some buckets and to shoot a little bit. He probably can play a feel minutes in the playoffs without killing you in the 4, and that's valuable.

Investment

Trey Lyles, 23 years old, RFA, Denver Nuggets
Lyles played poorbly this last year, particularly on offense, and the Nuggets already will have Millsap + MPJr + Juancho in the 4, so it's a low chance they're re-signing him. Teams should look into Lyles as still a project, who just had a really bad year (particularly with his shooting, he's a career 33.1% 3P shooter, but shot 25.5% last year), who will probably regress this year, and has a lot of ball handling for a big. He could still be a very interesting player on offense and he's already good on D. A team like the Suns could take a chance on him.
Since I've written the original post he was extended the qualifying offer. That makes this situation a bit harder, although I'd probably say a 24 million over 3 years offer would make it unlikely, but I'm not sure anymore that's actually a bargain.
My prediction: 5 million per year, maybe 15/3 years

Just give him another shot

Markieff Morris, 30 years old, UFA, Indiana Pacers
Markieff Morris never really looked healthy in OKC. But he looked the better Morris brother his hole career, and I think he's really worth another shot as a 4/small ball 5 for a contender, as a buy low candidate. He can shoot a bit and has wing size, these 2 things already have some value, if he reabilitates physically and mentally he could give you starter production basically for free.
My prediction: signs for minimum.
 
The post pretty much ends here.
 

Bonus: Directly from Europe

Derrick Williams, Bayern Munich
Derrick Williams was ok in europe, I just really wanted to let you guys know he's planning a comeback to the NBA, but he doesn't really make it to any of the classes here because I don't think he'll really contribute if he comes back.
Mindaugas Kuzminskas, 29 years old, UFA, Olimpia Milano
Kuzmisnkas is a good fill-out roster for the minimum option, and he's also planing a comeback to the league. Good size, athleticism and an ok 3 point shot, I'd take a flyer on him for minimum. What's up Knicks fans!

Comments:

The Nuggets extending Lyles the qualifying offer surprised me a lot. I still think they won't match an offer for him that puts them close to the tax, specially because they have the extensions of Murray and Beasley incoming and should constraint them over the next years.
The Power Forward position actually has a good depth, that'd make me optismitic if I'm a team like the Suns, the Jazz or the Warriors and I am in need of one. Thaddeus Young just might be a big steal in this Free Agency.
 
 

Targeting Centers

The Center is a very rich position in terms of players, I have a list of 33 interesting players at the 5 (or players at the 4 that COULD be seen as a 5), excluding players like Gortat and Chandler that are a bit washed out.
Player Player 2 Player
Vucevic Horford BroLo
Cousins Valanciunas DAJordan
Enes Kanter WCStein Young*
Vonleh Dewayne Dedmon Bobby Portis
Thomas Bryant RoLo Khem Birch
Ed Davis Maxi Kleber Taj
JaMychal Green Faried Zubac
Marjanovic Kevon Looney Holmes
Daniel Theis Jordan Bell KOQ
Muscala McGee Noah
Cheick Diallo Salah Mejri Karminsky
 
Considering the conclusion of my last post mocking the 2019 Free Agency, the results of 2018 Free Agency (Hey Nerlens Noel) you'd expect there will be a lot of bargains out there. The Room and Tax MLE will be powerfull, and possibly the BAE (Bi-Annual Exception, at 3.6 million this year).
It might also be a lot of 1 year contracts, considering there are really no advantages in signing back-up centers to long salaries:
  • Low trade value of back-up and even low tier starters at the 5, even if at good contracts (See Ivica Zubac)
  • Flexibility going forward, possibility to get younger.
  • No dead money risk from a injury or massive drop-off.
  • There will always be a good center available at the next free agency
  • You never know what's the next draft going to be, that roster spot and minutes might have better value next season on a Zach Collins kind of guy.
 
Players I'd like to talk a bit about it:
I don't quite like Julius Randle. He was a 20/10 players last season, but in a real playoff team what does he do? He is a big defense liability, still doesn't quite space the floor. It hurts too much to put him out there, I think he'll be too targetted in a playoff series. Randle's contract might be around 15+ million if the Knicks really strike out at everything else. I wouldn't pay him the MLE in this circumstances.
Aaron Baynes: Baynes might be bought out by the Suns either now or in February, keep an eye for him.
An interesting contract: Is the Nerles Noel special. There are a lot of centers that will probably get the minimum. The top tier of these guys like Robin Lopez and possibly Kanter will have some teams competting, and a 1 + 1 at the minimum will be the contract to look out for. That means an player option on year 2, pretty much to give this guy some guarantee on being in the league next year.
 

Under the radar Free Agents

*Player name, age on day 1 next season, type of FA, team he lastly played for
Ed Davis, 30 years old, UFA, Brooklyn Nets
If you don't count the fake reserves like Harrell and Sabonis (they play starting minutes pretty much) Ed Davis was the best back-up center in last year's league. He's a good enough switch guy, rebounding machine, good defensive player, solid pick and roller. And it just doesn't seem the Market has turned that well for him. The Nets are reportedly going after DeAndre Jordan, so that's one less competitor. I'd love him on the 76ers.
My prediction: 4-8 million
Nerlens Noel, 25 years old, UFA, OKC Thunder
The Thunder are obviously too deep into the tax and they don't have bird rights to re-sign him even if he wasn't. Noel is a low tier-starter in this league IMO. He'd be absolutely great at any team just because of how well of a defender he's, but I'd really like him in the Celtics if they sign Kemba and end up without a starting Center. The Lakers would be good in terms of opportunity for him, or a team that miss out on a bigger center, like possibly the New Orleans Pelicans.
My prediction: 4-6 million
Khem Birch, 27 years old, RFA, Orlando Magic
This is more of a situational one, if the Magic actually re-sign Vucevic and T-Ross, they will be too close to the tax to re-sign him. Khem Birch was one of the best back-up centers in the league last year. If the Magic aren't willing to re-sign him, he could be in the room-MLE - taxpayer MLE level.
My prediction: 4-8 million

Not Cheap might be worth it

Brook Lopez. But wait a minute, I think I have a better one: Not spending top dollars in the Center position. Honestly you can get production for so cheap that I rather just take the Warriors route.
The Warriors route, 2015-19, Bogut/Zaza/Looney/Bell/Jones/Cousins
Filling out your roster with 3 or 4 centers with them having different playstyles, so you can adequate it to your matchup.
Some suggestions:
  1. KOQ, Noel, JaMyChal Green
  2. WCStein, Karmisnky, Bell
  3. Davis, McGee, Theis, Noah
Just a thought, mix it up a slower great defensive center (Bogut), a switching guy (Looney/Bell) and a floor spacer (Cousins).

Minimum players: best fill-out roster options

Robin Lopez, 31 years old, UFA, Chicago Bulls
He's 31 years old and 2 months. what's actually younger than I though he was. He's pretty much the definition of solid in the center position. Great block out guy, makes your team rebound better, good pick and roll, smart defender. And he's really stable, being pretty much a sure thing.
Richaun Holmes, 26 years old, UFA, Phoenix Suns
Holmes played really well this year, I love Ayton and his potential, but many times the Suns looked better with Holmes at the 5. He's still kind of young, last year he really simplified things: Stopped shooting 3s and just did the things he does best, rebounding, blocking shots, going strong in the pick and roll.
Taj Gibson, 34 years old, UFA, Minnesota Timberwolves
Honestly it's a bit more unrealistic for him to only get the minimum, I think the BAE or room MLE might be just as likely, but he would be such a great piece for the playoffs, he's still a great defender and rebounder, really smart and efficient guy that fits really well a team that actually wants to contend. When you're playing the finals, there's only about 2 or 3 bench guys that can actually play without killing you, if you get one of them for the minimum you're good.
But he will surely get the room MLE or part of the tax from someone
He earned 70 million dollars over his career (so that considerable money) though and he's 10 year veteran, so his minimum is $2,561,463, making the BAE not so lucrative and he could get a 1+1 worth 5.25 million, what's close in terms of guarantee money even to a team that gives him the full tax MLE. And maybe for that difference he just decides to play for the minimum for a team that offers a better option. I'd actually really like him on the Warriors.
 

Investment

Jordan Bell, 24 years old, RFA, GSWarriors
The Warriors are reportedly really high on Damian Jones, so I don't expect them to bring Bell back on a long term contract, specially considering Green's salary in 2020 and that they've addded Smailagic who'll end up overlapping a bit with Bell.
Bell didn't play very well last year, but he had a great rookie season, a really smart player with some size issues, could be an useful piece on the playoffs more than in the regular season.
*My prediction: A 3 years BAE might be enough here (11.3 million - 3 years)
PS: Why not Thomas Bryant? Someone will probably think: The Wizards have to re-sign Ariza (at least they hope to), Jabari Parker, Bobby Portis (who they've traded for) and Satoransky (they don't have another PG on the books). They just might be in the tax when it's time for their last signing of these 5 players. And that could mean the player could easily walk. But I don't think they would simply give away Thomas Bryant for the BAE or something. If that was the case they would simply match it and them trade some of these players for value during the season. Ariza will probably be really tradeable close to the playoffs. I think it would've to be a 7+ million dollars offer per year to actually steal him from the Wizards. Bryant is 21 years old, but he's more of a back-up center right now, and I think a 24 million contract for him would be more of a fair offer than a bargain. Specially considering the down side of signing centers for multiple year that I've specified here.

Just give him another shot

Kenneth Faried, 29 years old, UFA, Houston Rockets
Faried showed some range this past year, but he's really worth for bringing to the table offensive rebounding, switching ability and vertical spacing in the pick and roll. That's for a player that I honetly think will get the minimum or a 1+1 min.

Comments:

I really want to say here that Joakim Noah looked quite well on the Grizzlies and would also be a good pick-up as a minimum guy.
Some people had a problem with my Faried inclusion as a 5, but I'd stand by it that he could play the 5 with the right 4 besides him. A lot of people are excited about Noel what makes me think if I might not be undervaluing his market.
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2019 Rookie RBs: 10% Analysis 90% Speculation

Background: I watch a little college football and a little game tape in order to try and get a jump on a very important (and in my opinion, undervalued) fantasy commodity: rookie running backs. I also like to do these write-ups as a flashpoint of my own analysis, so after the season I can review to see what I got right/wrong (see: my 2018 edition). Even though we are half a year from the draft and not all underclassmen decisions have been made, I hope this serves either as an introduction to these players or if you are familiar with them, stimulates debate about their abilities at the next level and their prospects in fantasy.
Class Outlook: Well we’ve been spoiled the last two years with Rookie RBs. In 2017 we got the greatest class in some time. Dalvin Cook, Joe Mixon, Kareem Hunt, Alvin Kamara, Leonard Fournette, and Christian McCaffrey all made deep impressions in their rookie year. It wasn’t realistic for the 2018 class to live up to the same standard, but we did get the God Saquon, Nick Chubb, Sony Michel, Kerryon Johnson, and the surprise Philip Lindsay. Unfortunately the 2019 class doesn’t look as impressive as either of these two, with most mocks projecting zero prospects to go in the 1st round and wide variation among expert’s top 5 rankings at the position. Currently there is not a lot of excitement, and lots of disagreement on how these prospects project to the NFL. But there are certainly talented players here who I’m sure, given the right situation, will flourish and be a big factor in the fantasy season. Here are my top 8 2019 RB prospects that I have my eye on, listed in order:
1. David Montgomery (Iowa State) – My top pick for this class. Not in the Gurley-Elliott-Barkley tier but a talented runner that could be an immediate workhorse back. Breaks arm tackles with ease and so good after contact. Not crazy agile but has enough shiftiness. Can catch flat routes out of backfield. I don’t know much about his pass-blocking ability but his talent is good enough to keep him on the field anyway. Plays like: James Conner
2. Darrell Henderson (Memphis) – Wow. What a season. Watched a few of his games and was blown away with his sheer ability. Incredible quickness. Runs hard. Good hands out of the backfield. Can take it to the house at any time. Knock against him is he played against iffy competition. This is probably higher than most would rank him but I’m all in on him. Plays like: Kareem Hunt
3. Rodney Anderson (Oklahoma) – Explosive. Great acceleration through the hole. Not a true power back but can use his arms effectively and has great balance. Shows smoothness on his routes out of the backfield. Decent hands. He generated a ton of hype in 2017 but unfortunately sat out nearly the entire 2018 season with a knee injury. Has a pretty deep injury history too. Broken leg kept him out another season, broken vertebrae the next year. I don’t anticipate he will be in the top 3 backs taken, as I expect the injury concerns will prevent teams from investing too high of a pick, but on sheer ability there is a lot to be excited about. Could be a middle round steal. Plays like: Ryan Mathews with good hands
4. Miles Sanders (Penn State) – It was inevitable Sanders would be compared to Saquon Barkley. It’s an unfair comparison. Yet oddly enough I do feel there is some crossover in their skillsets and while not nearly a generational prospect like Barkley, Sanders does have the potential to be a significant player in the NFL. His powerful jump cuts and above average acceleration allows him to get to the second level quickly and makes him hard to line up in the open field. And while he relies mostly on his shiftiness to evade tacklers, he has impressive power to push the pile when needed. He’s been generating a lot of buzz the second half of the season, and just declared for the draft. Wouldn’t be shocked to see his stock rise over the next few months. Plays like: Saquon-lite? Told myself I wouldn’t do that. He’s a shiftier Marion Barber
5. Justice Hill (Oklahoma State) – Impressive speed. Powerful, David Johnson-like jump cuts. Some of his cuts look so mean I actually get a little worried about the torque on his ACL’s. Runs with more strength than you would expect given size. Still size is a big concern. Listed at 190, very few backs under 200 end up having an every-down impact. But the way he runs is just flat out nasty. While power running isn’t really his style, I’ve seen him just barrel over people in the open field. A lot has been made of his size but I think the talent outweighs those concerns for me. Don’t be shocked if he ends up as one of the first three RBs off the board. Plays like: A nastier Marlon Mack
6. Damien Harris (Alabama) – Bruising runner. Not the fastest but still has dangerous speed. Noted for his pass protection. Many have him #1 on their RB board. He’s solid in many respects, but I don’t see him being the game changer NFL teams seem to be looking for. I actually like another Alabama RB a bit better, junior Josh Jacobs, but that doesn’t seem to be the consensus among experts and its also unknown if he will declare. But Harris is such an all-around talent at the position I could seem him having a 12-year career with a 4.2 ypc. I still can’t help but feel underwhelmed when watching him, and think its more likely he becomes a middling 1B RB or nice backup. Big chance I eat this analysis after the season but I’m going with my gut. Plays like: Poor man’s Frank Gore
7. Bryce Love (Stanford) – Man, what happened to Bryce Love. A year ago he was a can’t miss prospect. Blazing speed. 20 runs of 50 or more yards and an 8.1 ypc in 2017 (yes that is not a typo). Heisman runner-up. 1st/2nd round projection. He decided to stay for his senior year and we all know how this story goes. Injury and a declining supporting cast, especially offensive line struggles, seemed to be the biggest factors in a disappointing 2018. Now projected to go in the middle rounds, I’m betting at least one GM out there will fall in love with his speed and overall pedigree, and take a chance on him in the 3rd or maybe even the 2nd round. With his small stature and lack of power it’s hard to see him as a three down back, but his speed and sheer playmaking prowess (on a healthy ankle) makes him a potential game-changer and huge weapon. Plays like: A faster Dion Lewis
8. Myles Gaskin (Washington) – An absolute star in his college career. It’s been four great years but one of those guys you feel like you’ve been watching for the past nine. Almost 1,000 carries in that span. Yikes. A lot of myles on the tires (sorry). Will that scare teams away? Always thought it was a silly red flag but you hear about it being a factor. When watching him play I can’t help but think he is just born to play the position. It’s not so much his ability, although he is moderately fast, agile and can pack a punch, but it’s his vision and instincts that pop out to me. And he runs with tenacity and decisiveness. I’m not sure if NFL teams will invest a high pick in him as he doesn’t have the gaudiest measureables, but I’m really pulling for him. Plays like: A rich man’s Montee Ball. Or maybe just Montee Ball
Honorable mentions:
So where will they go? Speculating on the prospective RB-needy teams:
Oakland – Muscle Hamster is a FA. Behind him are just complementary pieces. With this team in a full throttle rebuild, it’s hard to see even the primary role here being too appealing, at least for now. They do have a ton of draft picks and cap space to work with, so we’ll see what Gruden works towards this offseason.
Kansas City – Kareem is gone. Ware is a FA. Damien Williams got a 2-year extension but I’m not sure it guarantees him a spot on top of the depth chart. Given Mahomes and the potency of this offense, this will be the most intriguing spot worth monitoring.
Baltimore – Alex Collins & Gus Edwards are free agents. Kenneth Dixon is anything but a proven commodity. Offense will revolve around Lamar Jackson in a run heavy scheme. I’m not confident of this spots value in ppr leagues but I’m excited for the Lamar Jackson era and think he will bring more fantasy consistency to Ravens RBs then Flacco did.
Miami – Only Drake is returning, and if Adam Gase does as well it’ll be hard to trust anyone in this backfield. With the RBs, the QB and coach all questionable to return it’s hard to predict anything at this point. Edit: Gase is not returning. First year of a total rebuild doesn't bode well for fantasy.
Buffalo – Nearly all their RBs are signed through next year, but cue the LeSean McCoy trade rumors. In its current form I’m staying far away from this offense. The only thing that seems to have any fantasy relevance is Josh Allen’s legs.
NY Jets –Powell is a free agent. But Crowell and McGuire are signed and McGuire had a fairly impressive finish to the season. Might not be many touches available come next year. Still, I’m excited to see which coach they land. This offense is on the upswing with Darnold under center.
Philadelphia – Ajayi is a free agent coming off a serious injury. Sproles is retiring, or is he? Adams looked talented but raw in a primary role. And just like the Catholic Church I think everyone is indifferent of more touches to Smallwood (I’m really sorry). There is an opening here and I’ve been dying for my team to draft a running back for the past three years (pumphrey who?). Please Howie, PLEASE!
San Francisco – Only McKinnon signed for 2019, but he’s coming off injury. Brieda had an impressive year when on the field but I don’t have enough hands to count the injuries he had. It’ll be interesting to see if they resign him or if he will price himself to the open market. A lot up in the air for this backfield, but this will be a Kyle Shanahan offense with Jimmy G returning and George Kittle as a budding superstar. I’m keeping a close eye on this spot.
Tampa Bay – With Barber and Jaquizz pending free agents it’s now the Ronald Jones show. That’s frightening. It’s my belief Jones will never be more than a complementary back, and his preseason performance showed he’s still far away from even that role. Expect a few new faces here.
New Orleans – Mark Ingram’s pending free agency has been well discussed. Kamara will definitely be 1A but I’m betting we’ve seen his usage ceiling and they will bring in someone to take Ingram’s role and continue to split touches. This offense will retain juggernaut status if Brees returns. If so, I’m buying.
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[OC] Every team's best lineup so far in the 17-18 Season - December Edition.

Using this Stat Tracker from NBA.COM I managed to compile every team's best line up. 3 big factors are at play here. Offensive Rating, Defensive Rating, and True Shooting.
NET RATING is the positive or negative difference between the ORTG and DRTG.
Sample size matters, but it is not the definitive factor. If a rarely used lineup has posted astronomical numbers, I may choose them over the team's second best. It's all situational.
This is the second edition. I did the first back in the beginning of November. If it takes off as well as the first one did, I can do it twice more this season, too.
 
Atlanta Hawks: L.Babbitt, K.Bazemore, D.Dedmon, T.Prince, D.Schroder
I mean... there isn't much to work with here. At 71 minutes, this is the Hawks most used lineup, but a +3.1 NET RTG is nothing to get excited about. Swapping out Dedmon for Collins makes them far better on offense, but far worse on defense.
With Dedmon: 107 ORTG, 104 DRTG. 61% TS.
With Collins: 129 ORTG, 120 DRTG. 73% TS.
Personally, I'd go with the Collins unit just because you need to get your rookie experience, but with only 6 games played together, there isn't enough sample size to say it's definitely their best option.
 
Boston Celtics: A.Baynes, J.Brown, A.Horford, K.Irving, M.Smart
This is easily the Celtics best lineup. Having appeared in 7 games, this group has posted a Net RTG of 51.8. For comparison, their most used lineup, which swaps out Tatum for Smart, puts up a NET RTG of +16.3. The Tatum lineups offer offense on the same level, but it's the defense that puts this one over. In fact, it's the best defensive lineup in the NBA.
People who wonder why Celtics fans love Marcus despite his shooting woes will tell you its his hustle on the defensive end, and it shows with a 73 DRTG. Tatum will get you the shot you need. Smart will get you the stop you need. It's all situational and both are deadly.
 
Brooklyn Nets: D.Carroll, A.Crabbe, S.Dinwiddie, R.Hollis-Jefferson, T.Zeller
None of the above names are particularly sexy. You won't be carrying anyone to a title with Spencer Dinwiddle leading the way, and I'm not even sure which Zeller brother this is. Still, the stats don't lie. As Brooklyn's most used lineup, they've had the most chances to screw up their numbers. They haven't. A +25.2 NET RTG, thanks in large part to a stifling defense, has led this group to success. I'm interested in seeing what they can do with Russell mixed in.
 
Charlotte Hornets: D.Howard, M.Kidd-Gilchrist, J.Lamb, K.Walker, M.Williams
The Hornets don't have any exceptional lineups, but they at least have consistency when it comes to this lineup. Their second most used group puts up a modest 13.5 NET RTG and puts up a DRTG above league average at 100.6.
All 3 of Charlotte's best lineups use Dwight Howard.
 
Chicago Bulls: J.Grant, J.Holiday, R.Lopez, L.Markkanen, D.Nwaba
Chicago has just five qualified groups. All of their starting lineups are a black hole of efficiency and every lineup uses some combination of Lopez and Holiday. They had two options here - one using Dunn and one using Grant. The one with Dunn offers a solid ORTG of 110 and good defense. The one with Grant offers exceptional defense and has twice as much playtime. So I went with that one.
A DRTG of 86.3 is serious. This lineup doesn't score much, but it still posts a NET RTG of +13.7. You could go either way, honestly, as the Dunn lineup has far better shooting numbers. They're just not tested enough.
 
Cleveland Cavaliers: C.Frye, J.Green, L.James, K.Korver, D.Wade
Hear me out, dammit. At 70 minutes, this is the Cavs second most used lineup. Defensively, the Cavs usually suck, but this group turns them into the fucking 1988 Pistons for some reason. They've posted a 90.2 DRTG together to go with a 117 ORTG and 62% TS. Compare that to the starting lineup, which posted a 108 DRTG.
When you need points, however, James/Wade/Love/Smith/Korver is the way to go. A 129 ORTG on 67% True Shooting will get the job done. I'm excited for the return of Thomas to integrate into their offensive units.
 
Dallas Mavericks: J.Barea, Y.Ferrell, D.Harris, D.Nowitzki, D.Powell
This lineup is incredible and Carlisle knows it. I like Dennis Smith, and I'm excited to watch him grow, but this is arguably the best lineup in the NBA - just as they were the last time I posted it. In 94 minutes, their 2nd most used group, they've posted a NET RTG of +42.8 anchored by a 74.4 DRTG!
The Mavs main unit(106 minutes) of Barnes/KlebeMatthews/Nowitzki/Smith is a -8.6 NET with a 116 DRG. If the Mavs are truly tanking, expect their usage to rise.
But if they want to win a chip, go with that first lineup.
 
Denver Nuggets: W.Chandler, G.Harris, N.Jokic, P.Millsap, J.Murray
At 224 minutes, this is the 8th most used lineup in the NBA. The fact that they've maintained a +12.0 NET RTG with that much playtime is impressive. it was their best lineup the first time I ran this OC, too.
Among all lineups with 200 minutes played, only the Warriors starters have played better.
Statistically, there are stronger Nuggets lineups. Swapping Barton for Harris jumps their NET RTG up to +31.7, but a 44 minute sample size just can't weight against the Harris lineup.
 
Detroit Pistons: L.Galloway, L.Kennard, E.Moreland, I.Smith, A.Tolliver
A.Bradley, A.Drummond, T.Harris, R.Jackson, S.Johnson is the second most used unit in the NBA. They also might just be the Pistons worst lineup, posting a NET RTG of -7.5.
Detroit has 5 qualified lineups. All of them are negative except L.Galloway, L.Kennard, E.Moreland, I.Smith, A.Tolliver, which posted a slightly-above-the-line +2.1 NET RTG. SVG is allergic to experimentation.
 
Golden State Warriors: S.Curry, K.Durant, D.Green, Z.Pachulia, K.Thompson
I mean... what did you expect? It's the third quarter team. The warriors only have 4 lineups that have played more than 5 games together. This one is utilized 4x as much as the others, and for good reason. An ORTG of 120.1, a DRTG of 99.2, and an absurd 66% True Shooting make the starting lineup unstoppable.
Not much else to say here. Warriors got their game down to a fine science. It's worth noting that the famous "Death lineup", swapping Zaza for Iggy, has been a negative this season. That's probably why they've only played 58 minutes together.
 
Houston Rockets: R.Anderson, T.Ariza, C.Capela, E.Gordon, J.Harden
When CP3 gets more time under his belt, this is going to change. But as it stands, the Rockets most used lineup is also their best. At +22.3 NET, these five destroys the opposition.
For some strange reason, CP3 is in only one positive lineup, which swaps out Gordon for him. In 97 minutes, they are the team's worst DRTG lineup with a 122.1. Don't ask me why exchanging Eric Gordon for the best point guard defender in the league makes them worse on defense. The Rockets are weird, but my God are they good.
 
Indiana Pacers: B.Bogdanovic, C.Joseph, V.Oladipo, D.Sabonis, L.Stephenson
The Pacers have 14 freaking lineups. I'm not sure what's going on over there, but it's kind of fun to watch. The above lineup is the 6th best in the NBA. With a Net RTG of 40.9 over a 6 game sample size, this group is damn near unstoppable. Almost 70% True Shooting!
That said, if you want a larger sample size, the most used lineup of B.Bogdanovic, D.Collison, V.Oladipo, M.Turner, T.Young is perfectly acceptable. While a 3.9 Net is nothing to call home about, they get the job done.
 
LA Clippers: P.Beverley, D.Gallinari, B.Griffin, D.Jordan, M.Teodosic
The Clippers can't keep a lineup on the damn floor. There is no large sample size to work with here so we're going to get the Clippers fans excited about their healthy future. This Teodosic lineup, which appeared in only two games this season, posted one of the 5 best NET RTG's in the NBA. An ORTG of 126 against a DRTG of 83? Incredible.
P.Beverley, D.Gallinari, B.Griffin, D.Jordan, A.Rivers is a +8.3 if you want a truly tested lineup to work with, though. Man... so many injuries. What a shame. I, for one, was looking forward to the Clippers this year.
 
LA Lakers: L.Ball, K.Caldwell-Pope, B.Ingram, K.Kuzma, J.Randle
This is one of the best defensive units in the NBA. For all the shit Lonzo gets for his shooting, he is a solid defender, and it shows with this lineup. They posted an 86 DRTG over 15 games to give them a +28 NET RTG.
Alas, Luke Walton's most two used lineups swap out Randle for Lopez, and it makes the Lakers worse in every way. I hope Brook gets his shit together because he looked like a borderline all-star with the Nets last year, but he's looking more like a Mosgov this year.
 
Memphis Grizzlies: D.Brooks, T.Evans, M.Gasol, J.Green, A.Harrison
Over a 7 game sample, this group has put up a solid +21.7 NET. No Grizzlies lineup has played 100 minutes, and at 44 minutes, this group isn't exactly "tested," but they put up points in bunches. Grizzlies fans don't have much to be excited about right now, but at least Tyreke is finally showing flashes of his rookie season.
 
Miami Heat: W.Ellington, J.Johnson, T.Johnson, K.Olynyk, D.Waiters
Over 12 games, this group has delivered time and time again - mostly thanks to absurd defense(93.2). The ball moves extremely well in this group. Their best lineup, G.Dragic, J.Johnson, J.Richardson, D.Waiters, H.Whiteside, has only 33 minutes over 7 games under their belt, but it has been even better, posting a net of 33.6. The Heat are one of the deepest teams in the east and it shows in their lineup variety.
 
Milwaukee Bucks: G.Antetokounmpo, E.Bledsoe, J.Henson, K.Middleton, T.Snell
After a lot of early season experimentation, the Bucks have found their lineup. Despite Bledsoe joining the team late, this is their most used group, posting a Net of +17.1 and a 63% True Shooting. Swapping Bledsoe out for Brodgon yields the same results with slightly worse defense in exchange for betting shooting.
As Bledsoe builds chemistry with this team, I predict we will see great things from the Bucks. Giannis has slowed down some after a start to the season that had many people calling him the MVP favorite, but I don't think we've seen the last of the Greek Freak's hype this year. As arguably the second best player in the East, finally playing with an above average point guard, the Bucks are in a fantastic place.
 
Minnesota Timberwolves: J.Butler, T.Gibson, T.Jones, K.Towns, A.Wiggins
The Wolves second-most used unit has posted a +16.4 NET RTG in 90 minutes together. They have the best defense on the team out of 11 qualified units.
Funny side-note since the Thibs minutes thing is a hot button right now: The starting lineup with Teague has logged 535 minutes together. That's almost 150 more minutes than the second most used lineup in the league. But they're a positive, with a +7.5 NET RTG. They are one of the most consistent lineups in the league. If only the bench would stop blowing leads.
 
New Orleans Pelicans: D.Cousins, D.Cunningham, A.Davis, J.Holiday, E.Moore
The Pelicans haven't had a chance to really find Rondo's best place in the Davis/Cousins/Rondo healthy circle. Because of that, the most used lineup including him is actually a negative. Cunningham has played more than Rondo, and as part of their most used lineup, I was surprised to see the Pels post a +6.6 with him on the floor. I think this team is an outlier. They have no "good" lineups yet. Is that because of the player's erratic health, or is it because of their coaching? That's for Pels fans to decide.
 
New York Knicks: J.Jack, E.Kanter, C.Lee, D.McDermott, K.Porzingis
This seems to be Jeff's little "sekrit lineup". They have played in more games than all but one of the Knicks lineups(11 games) but they have only spent 27 minutes together. They come out for like 2-4 minutes, murder the opposition, and send out the main squad again. With a +25.4 NET RTG(an incredible 79 DRTG), this is by far the Knicks best group.
If you want a true sample size, the starters—the only Knicks lineup above 50 minutes—of Jack/KanteLee/Porzingis/THJ are a +5.6 in 15 games(233 minutes). They get the job done. But maybe they should throw Doug out there in that group and see what he can do with the team in more minutes.
 
OKC Thunder: S.Adams, C.Anthony, P.George, A.Roberson, R.Westbrook
This lineup only wins because of sample size - 319 minutes. No other OKC Lineup has hit 70 minutes. That being said, this not a bad lineup. Their DRTG of 94.8 is one of the best starting groups in the league, but their shooting isn't great(52.8% TS).
One lineup they use swaps Grant for Adams and posted a +24.8 NET, but their absolute best line up is Abrines, Adams, George, Grant, and Westbrook. With a DRTG of 76.0, this is the fourth best defensive group in the league.
Their primary bench unit of Felton, Abrines, Grant, Patterson, and George, is one of the worst in the entire league with a negative 18.3 NET in 11 games. Swapping Roberson for Abrines, their second most utilized lineup, is also dreadful. Yet Donovan keeps going to these same line-ups game in and game out. The Thunder aren't losing because of their starters. They're losing because of their bench.
 
Orlando Magic: E.Fournier, A.Gordon, S.Mack, J.Simmons, N.Vucevic
This is the best lineup in the NBA. Over 10 games, they've posted a +54.4 NET RTG and a 72% True Shooting. Alas, the lineup swapping Mack for Payton is used 4x more often and is a Negative 11.7 NET.
Magic people, if you're reading this, please check your lineup stats. All of your main lineups are totally ass.
 
Philadelphia 76ers: R.Covington, J.Embiid, J.Redick, D.Saric, B.Simmons
Don't fix what isn't broken. This is their best and most used lineup. An ORTG of 112 against a DRTG of 96 is the perfect balance.
When Embiid is injured, the Sixers can swap in Amir Johnson and swap TJ for Saric to give them an incredible +30.2 Net, but they've only appeared in 9 games for 28 minutes together, their 5th most used lineup.
 
Phoenix Suns: D.Bender, D.Booker, T.Chandler, M.James, T.Warren
This group puts up points in bunches. Over 8 games(Small sample size because the Suns have 11 qualified units), they have an ORTG of 134.5 with a 71% TS. 30 minutes isn't much to work with, though.
BookeChandleChriss/Ulis/Warren is their best "tested" lineup with a Net RTG of +9.2 and a 61% TS in 91 minutes. Swapping Ulis for Mike James gives them a +4.7 over 104 minutes.
The Suns are better than their record shows. I don't think people realize how much Alex Len hurts the team. He is responsible for 4 of the 5 worst Suns lineups. The 5th lineup will never happen again because it was Eric Bledsoe's group. With all of their bigs, maybe its time for the Suns to move on from the Len experiment.
 
Portland Trailblazers: A.Aminu, D.Lillard, C.McCollum, J.Nurkic, E.Turner
This was the same lineup I chose last time I did this. The thing is... the Blazers don't have any other good lineups. Their most used swaps Harkless in over Turner, and that puts up a modest +4.8.
But the lineup using Turner posts an incredible +36.9 NET RTG, one of the best in the league, with an impressive 75.4 DRTG. Alas, with only 8 games to work their magic, they haven't had a chance to make much difference together.
 
Sacramento Kings: B.Bogdanovic, W.Cauley-Stein, B.Hield, K.Koufos, F.Mason
7 of 9 lineups are huge negatives for the Kings. This one has played 6 games for 49 minutes together and put up a respectable +7.9 NET RTG. They have just two lineups above 100 minutes and both have horrible numbers - both use George Hill. In fact, George Hill is not part of a single positive lineup for the Kings.
Bogdanovic is the only King in both of the positive lineups. (the second has a +15.5 NET over 30 minutes)
 
San Antonio Spurs: L.Aldridge, K.Anderson, P.Gasol, D.Green, P.Mills
Chose sample size here. With a +10.5 NET, this lineup does the job. That being said, Tony Parker's return has led to amazing things for the Spirs. Swapping Mills for Parker increases their Net RTG to a baffling +38.0 and a 65% TS. They've only had 30 minutes together, as opposed to the 155 by the chosen unit, but it's been their most effective group of the season.
With Kawhi returning, we may as well throw all of this out the window.
 
Toronto Raptors: O.Anunoby, D.DeRozan, S.Ibaka, K.Lowry, J.Valanciunas
Toronto needs to face the facts. OG is better on the starting lineup than Powell. With Powell, this lineup posts a Net of -11.3 in 131 minutes. With OG instead, they are a+13.2 in 194 minutes.
Last time I did this, their best lineup was the all-bench unit of OG, Miles, Poeltl, VanVleet, and Wright. They are still the most effective bench unit in the NBA, posting an 88 DRTG for a +12.6, trailing just behind the starters. As with the starters, swapping OG for Powell turns them into a massive negative(-12.4 NET).
What's a coach to do? The team is just 100% better with OG. Do you beef up the starters with him? Do you beef up the bench? Either way, Powell hurts them with these two groups. Hopefully they find a place for him to contribute.
 
Utah Jazz: A.Burks, D.Favors, J.Ingles, J.Jerebko, D.Mitchell
Jazz, what is you doing? Their three most lineups are all huge negatives. The lineup of Favors, Gobert, Rubio, Ingles, and Mitchell is especially atrocious, posting a net of -31.7 over 86 minutes and a putrid 48% True shooting. Swapping Hood in for Mitchell(their most used group) isn't much better, posting a -11.2.
And so we're forced to dig a little deeper. The chosen lineup put up an incredible 141.5 ORTG on an amazing 72% True shooting. They have just 40 minutes together, though, while the starters have all played between 80 and 110 minutes.
There is not a single positive lineup using Gobert. Hopefully they figure that out soon because you kind of need your best player.
 
Washington Wizards: B.Beal, M.Gortat, K.Oubre Jr., O.Porter Jr., J.Wall
The Wizards don't experiment. With a +22.5 NET RTG, you don't really have to. This group has both the highest ORTG(114) and DRTG(92) of all their lineups. Swapping Oubre out for Morris makes them worse.
I'm no expert on the Wizards, so I'd be interested in asking their fans: Do you think Kelly should be a starter, or do you need his scoring punch off the bench?
 
Best Offensive Lineup in the NBA: Utah Jazz- Burks/Favors/Ingles/Jerebko/Mitchell - 141.5 ORTG
Best Defensive Lineup in the NBA: Boston Celtics - Baynes/Brown/Horford/Irving/Smart - 73.0 ORTG
Best Shooting Lineup in the NBA: Orlando Magic: FournieGordon/Mack/Simmons/Vucevic - 73.3% TS
Worst Offensive Lineup in the NBA: Indiana Pacers - Bogdanovic/Joseph/Sabonis/Stephenson/Young - 68.7 ORTG
Worst Defensive lineup in the NBA: Memphis Grizzlies - Brooks/Chalmers/Evans/Gasol/Green - 146.1 DRTG
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[OC] Finding Bargains in 2019 Free Agency - Targeting "x" Superpost

A week ago I started a series about the 2019 Free Agency. I've written about all the position and looking for 5 kind of players:
Under the radar Free Agents: That's the middle class guys that I think might not have the market they should, offering an opportunity for a team like the Pacers there aren't a FA destination get a good contract or a team like the Lakers that can offer living in Los Angeles + minutes to play and attention to get him if he decides to bet on himself on a even smaller number.
Investment: That's a younger guy that might be available usually becuase of some tax or cap situation, that a team could take a chance on him with a longer contract paying off in the future.
Minimum guys to fill out the roster: Some teams with no cap space still need players to contend, and that's the goal here. Look out for this part in the Center market.
Just give him another shot: That's a let down player that could comeback in 2019-20, and teams should buy his stock while it's down.
Not cheap, but might be worth it: That doesn't fit this post all that well, but some players are just no-brainers, hard to get production and have the potential to outplay even a richer deal.
[OC] Targeting Point Guards in 2019 Free Agency
[OC] Targeting Shooting Guards in 2019 Free Agency
[OC] Targeting Small Forwards in 2019 Free Agency
[OC] Targeting Power Forwards in 2019 Free Agency
[OC] Targeting Centers in 2019 Free Agency
Another post I've made and it's really interesting for this discussion, was mocking the off-season in order to understand how much money will be available to each tier of players, to better predict the contracts:
[OC] Mocking the 2019 Free Agency: How much money is out there?
 
Looking for good deals in 2019 FA, be aware that I won't be talking about guys like Patrick Beverley (everyone's talking about him), Brook Lopez, Dewayne Dedmon, Danny Green, and Bojan Bogdanovic because every team is looking at them, and they're in a really high point of their evaluation, which means that they're probably going to come back to earth soon and you'll have overpaid for unsustainable play.
The profile here are under the radar, underrated guys, that might be available for the right price. It contributes if it's original team isn't looking to re-sign them, because that's minus one very important competitor with bird rights.
 

Targeting Point Guards:

Under the radar Free Agents:

*Player name, age on day 1 next season, type of FA, team he lastly played for
Ricky Rubio, 29 years old, UFA, Utah Jazz
It's not a good sign that every team that signed Rubio ended up desperately trying to trade him in order to upgrade the team's ceiling. But Rubio still has good age and he's a really smart player and good at D. Even with it's fit problems, if you can get a low end starter for close to the MLE and you in need in that position, that's worth it. A young team might look into him as well, because of his ability to make teammates better in the regular season.
My prediction: 8-14 million
My prediction: 6-10 million
Tyus Jones, 23 years old, RFA, Minnesota Timberwolves
Tyus just had a really bad year, and that will probably cost him a lot. The Wolves also never looked quite invested in him so the restricted in RFA might not mean that much. A young but already really smart PG, would fit well with a young team.
My prediction: 5-8 million
Austin Rivers, 27 years old, UFA, Houston Rockets
Rockets probably won't actually re-sign and he showed he can stayed in the court even at the highest level of basketball, an incredible sign for a team that has high aspirations, such as the Lakers, I would also like him on the Warriors.
My prediction: 5-8 million
Ish Smith, 31 years old, UFA, Detroit Pistons
Ish runs the backup unit very well, and he made the team look better than Reggie Jackson did imo. He won't age well but on a 2 year contract I think he would be a pretty good back-up. He's more of a regular season guy though and would fit well for those teams fighting to get into the playoffs, he's worth it a Room-MLE.
My prediction: 4-7 million
Nando de Colo, 32 years old, RFA CSKA Moswcow - Raptors have his rights, thanks cartkp
After ruling the Euro League for the past 5 years, he's rumoured to be coming back to the NBA. The guy has an euroleague career 65 TS%, is a big enough defender where he'll be able to be hidden on a 2 or 3 because I don't think he can guard NBA 1s. The league just might have gotten it's new FT% leader, De Colo has shot 95% from the line recently. He's a great shooter and will fit well in the league, he's signifficantly better than Teodosic in that matter I believe.
My prediction: 4-6 million
Elfryd Payton, 25 years old, UFA, New Orleans Pelicans
This might be my favorite one. Payton played really well this year, but got some strange years that kept him . He shot 32% from 3, but he did shot at a bigger volume, and the team played really well with him on the court, while being long enough to give you good flexibility on D. He's not quite on the level where his 3 point shot will be guarded on the playoffs though and that's a worry, but it might be worth to bet on it developing since it appears to be trending that way.
My prediction: minimum salary - 4 million
 
My favorite fits: Rubio - Suns, Jones - Suns, Rivers - Lakers, Ish Smith - Hornets, de Colo - Lakers, Payton - not sure.

Just give him another shot

Jeremy Lin, 31 years old, UFA, Toronto Raptors
Look, I know he played badly with the Raptors, but with a summer of recovery from his injury, he might comeback to his form of before injury (which was a ruptured patellar tendon, that has a good prognosis of recovery), and you can probably get him as a 3rd string PG right now for the minimum, so it's a low risk, high reward move.
My prediction: minimum salary

Minimum players: best fill-out roster options

Brad Wanamaker, 30 years old, RFA, Boston Celtics
He was an elite player in Europe and looked really well in limited minutes with the Celtics, I personally though he gave the C's better minutes than Rozier last year. The Celtics will need cap space and they might just let him go, and imo he could easily be a backup in this league, playing minutes in the playoffs. I would like on almost every team, but what about him with injury-prone, no cap-space Miami Heat?
MCW, 28 years old, UFA, Orlando Magic
Wow, he's already 28 years old?? Yeah, but I do think he really rejuvenated his career in the Magic, with great D and stability, and I really like wing sized PGs. I kind of would like to see him in the Shaun Livingston role in the Warriors.
Almost made it: Shabazz Napier, Shane Larkin

The Investment

Alex Caruso, 25 years old, RFA, LA Lakers
The Lakers will need every cap space they can get and even in that case right now they're close to 32.0 million in most accounts, but these accounts don't consider the 550k extra in cap holds if they actually keep Caruso's cap hold instead of trading him. That would bring them to about 1.3 million dollars under the max to give it to a player in 4 years, what would mean close to 5.5 million in money a player would've to give away. That might just not happen if they sign a max player who wants every penny of it and teams should take advantage of that. Caruso absolutely could have a career as a back-up in this league, he's big and more athletic than he might appear, his 3 point shot is a work in progress, but in a good way.

Not cheap, but might be worth it

Tomas Satoransky 27 years old, RFA, Wizards
The Wizards will have 95 million dollars on Beal, Wall, Mahinmi, Howard, Hachimura and Troy Brown, that plus re-signing Bobby Portis (who rejected a 12 mi/yr extension byw), Ariza and Bryant, the Wizards just might not have the space to re-sign Sato. A wing sized guard, with great spot-up shooting, cutting and being just a really smart player, Sato is perfect for a contender. I'd throw a front loaded 50 million/4 years contract on him, because I don't believe the Wizards are getting even close to the tax to keep such a team. He fits anywhere but I would love him on Dallas or even Indiana.
My prediction: 12-15 million

Comments:

Some people suggested George Hill on this one, but I think he'll get a fair contract, he looked good on the bucks and I think many win now teams will look at him if they strike out on Pat Beverley, giving more of a fair contract than a bargain. Unfortunately this post good a bit outdated once Collinson retired. I've uptaded the Caruso situation as well.
 
 

Targeting Shooting Guards

The shooting guard is the position with the lowest average WAR according to Kevin Pelton, the weakest position in the league by a fair amount. If you position yourselve to acquire solid value in this position with short money this means you did a good job, because you'll have more money spent in other positions in the NBA with less scarcity of talent, making your money worth it.
Hornets
Mavs
Pistons
Warriors
Indiana (Dipo's coming back in January)
Lakers
Memphis
Minnesota
OKC
All these team definitely could use a new 2. Teams in italic will have significant cap space this summer. But if you dont, it's not a problem here, we're finding the right guys for each team.
 

Under the radar Free Agents

Player name, age on day 1 next season, type of FA, team he lastly played for
Rodney Hood, 27 years old, UFA, Portland Trail Blazers
The Blazers reportedly know he's out of their league (they'll only have the taxpayer MLE) and pretty much found a replacement for him already, so that's one less contender for the player. He's been quite incosistent but it seems like he found himself in the playoffs. Has a bit of off the court worries but a smart management can deal with that, he has starting level talent, ok defense, and playmaking ability at 6'7" at a great age and that's a pretty hard thing to get with less than 20 a year. He didn't play well in the regular season though, and that's something I'd alert you: He's a bet. But a lot of teams in this league need to start taking risks in order to be a contender. If you can get him at the MLE (9.2) for multiple years? That's a great bet.
My question for him is what's he looking for? Is it the next 4 years of a contract or a 1 or 2 years of contract in order to prove himself to get the pay day of his life? If it's the second one, he might be the right guy for the Lakers. They have plenty of minutes to go around and he'd take a big playmaking role, if he's willing to bet on himself and take a bit less.
My prediction: 8-15 million
Wesley Matthews, 33 years old, UFA, Indiana Pacers
I really liked him on the Boston series, he has that set os skills that's essential for a wing, good size, good individual defense, great 3 point shooter, but he might be looking more for his last pay day right now, he'll be 33 next season and really only fits win now teams. But I think he might age well enough to give him a 3 year contract, or maybe a partially guaranteed 3rd year. I'm really not hearing anything about him, I think he went totally under the radar and that he'll get significantly less than I was expecting.
It's hard to put a fit for a guy that fits really anywhere (in terms of playstyle), but I'd really like him on the Timberwolves. If OKC could make some trades (like a Steven Adams salary dump) and get a taxpayer MLE they'd be my perfect fit.
My prediction: 7-10 million
Reggie Bullock, 28 years old, UFA, LA Lakers
Reggie has great size at 6'7", plays ok defense and his shot is good. He shot 34.3% on the Lakers last year, but he's a career 39+% shooter, so it's pretty likely that he'll regress. Theoretically he fits well anywhere, but I don't quite trust his off ball defense and his basketball IQ that much. I think he'd fit well in OKC, with Adams, George and other long defenders to cover up his mistakes.
My prediction: 4-6 million
Garrett Temple, 33 years old, UFA, Indiana Pacers
Temple plays really good defense and I quite liked him on the Clippers. I think he went under the radar because nobody whatches the Grizzlies + He didn't play that much on the Clippers. But that's alright, with temple you know what you're getting, really good defense with an OK 3 point shot, the enought for some gravity in the playoffs (career 35.3% shooter). He's getting up there in age though, so I'd stick to a 2 year contract with him.
I think he'll be really cheap and considering the Hornets situation I think he's a good fit there. Lamb probably isn't coming back.
My prediction: 4-6 million
Wayne Ellington, 31 years old, UFA, Indiana Pacers
Detroit didn't quite miss Bullock. Ellington gives you 90% of what Bullock did, with better and more agressive off ball movement, but lesser size and defense. I really like the idea for the Warriors to go full offense and just dare team to outscore them. I think Ellington is also quite smart and would fit well in the Warriors, as he's probably looking to an opportunity to get more minutes so he can get that last contract. I'd say the Warriors are the perfect fit.
My prediction: min-5 million
 

Not cheap, but might be worth it

Jeremy Lamb, 27 years old, UFA, Charlotte Hornets
I'm just not seeing a lot of hype around Jeremy Lamb. He pretty much gives you what Hood does with better defense and actual consistency. He's also a great rebounder, and runs pick and roll really well. A (small) wing-sized playmaker with great age.
The fit is the main reason why I think he's here. He'd fit really well with the Hornets, Pistons (they just need some playmaking), Memphis (they like to acquire these smart deals like Kyle Anderson), Portland, Washington, but none of these teams have cap space! He'd fit well with the Lakers, but I think they will look for either a max guy or cheaper players, Indiana on the long run doesn't makes sense and I don't love the fit in the Mavs (with him taking the ball off Porzingis and Doncic's hands. I just don't see it. The best fit for cap space teams I found was the Kings, but he's kind of too similar to Bogdanovic, and Buddy is the starting 2. I think there's some (like 5%) chance he drops to the MLE. And that would be crazy considering the talent he showed this season.
My prediction: MLE-17 million.
 

Minimum players: best fill-out roster options

Iman Shumpert, 29 years old, UFA, Houston Rockets
After a not good end of the season with the Rockets, there's a good chance Shumpert ends up traded like a salary and than getting waived, or that's at least what multiple teams are thinking will happen. Otherwise Shumpert is way down in the list of teams priorities in a free agency of 200 players. His market might have dried up if the Rockets can't find a trade possibility and that would be a good opportunity for a lot of teams that need to fill out their rosters.
Alex Abrines, 26 years old, UFA, OKC Thunder
Where's Alex Abrines?? We haven't received any information about him since he left OKC. He's still a young good shooter with size, and if you can get that at the minimum you've appropiately filled that roster spot. The last I heard was a report he'd comeback to Barcelona but nothing after. I think he can make it in the NBA, I hope he comes back.
Rodney McGruder, 28 years old, UFA, LA Clippers, but really Miami Heat
He had a down season after a good 2017-18 season. The reason he's here actually isn't that I think he's a great use of a minimum. I think he's ok, but the roster spots in this league are getting really low for the quantity of talent out there. McGruder is a 3 year veteran so he still qualifies for a 2-way contract. In similar way to what the Rockets did with Danuel House, I'd take a seriously look at McGruder as a 2-way player, a really no risk ok reward if when the music stops he's out of chairs.
BONUS: JR Smith, 34 years old, UFA, Cleveland Cavs
I think JR still has 1 year in him, and there's a high chance he'll traded and waived or simply waived. A great 3&D in the really early buyout market.
Edit: Since the Original post JR has been linked to the Lakers, so I'll add another BONUS:
BONUS: Kyle Korver, 38 years old, UFA, Utah Jazz
The Grizzlies are probably buying him out at some point, and even though he had a really bad playoff series against the Rockets he can still shoot the hell of the ball and log in about 12-15 minutes for a team in the playoffs in some series. I might like him with the Warriors off ball movement. I'd like him on Minnesota as well.
 

Just give him another shot

KCP, 26 years old, UFA, LA Lakers
Buy low. KCP it's in the top 15 players who underperformed relatively to 2017-18.
He's actually my no.1 guy here. He ended last season on the right note, a good focused season out of the holophotes might give you back that tenacious defender with an ok 3 point shot (that actually looks better than it is). He played himself into the taxpayeroom-MLE, and there's talks about the Lakers bringing him back with it, but I'd try to get him locked under a 4 year cheap contract really bad. If I could get him for close 4/40 million honestly I'd do it, but 4/32 would be an excellent investment.
My prediction: 4-8 million, but in a short contract most realistically
 
 

Targeting Small Forwards

First I'd like to say that this's a really weak mid-tier and low-tier class for Small Forwards. It was really hard to find the right guys, and I don't even feel that strongly about some of them.
Players I'd like to talk a bit about it:
Trevor Ariza is a good player, but considering he has a really strong name in terms being a long time veteran and a known name in a really week mid-tier small forward class, I think he'll get a good contract and considering what he did last year, might be even a slight overpay. That's why he didn't maek the list.
Rudy Gay is also a good possibility here, but the Spurs have his early bird rights (They could pay him up to 17.5 million) and could pretty much match any offer (they aren't close to the tax), so I don't see many reasons for him to leave there.
 

Under the radar Free Agents

*Player name, age on day 1 next season, type of FA, team he lastly played for
Justin Holiday, 30 years old, UFA, Memphis Grizzlies
When you're looking for bargains you should players who for some reason had a worst than expected year, and look for the reason he might regress to the player he once was. Justin Holiday was PIPM's no.1 negative change guy last year. He was just really bad at both the Bulls and a let down at the Grizzlies. If he fits right with your team go for it, he'd be good playing for the Rockets.
My prediction: 5-8 million
James Ennis, 29 years old, UFA, Philadelphis 76ers
Ennis shows how important is to have a guy that can play in the playoffs. If it was up to Korkmaz or McConnell the 76ers just wouldn't have taken the Raptors to 7. 3&D guy that could've even helped the Rockets if they didn't trade him. Ennis would be pretty good in a LeBron team, honestly I'd start him and bring Kuzma off the bench.
My prediction: 4-6 million

Minimum players: best fill-out roster options

Darius Miller, 29 years old, UFA, New Orleans Pelicans
3 point and no D, Darius Miller is an ok guy to bring out of the bench, and you know what you're getting with him. His minutes flutuated a lot last year due to injuries, but he was playable in the 2017-18 playoffs. Something to think about is that Miller was Anthony Davis teammate both in College and in New Orleans, but honestly I think he'd fit better with a team like the Nuggets and the Warriors.
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, 24 years old, UFA, Brooklyn Nets
Nets aren't bringing him back, but he's still a young wing that can defend and it's a super versatile guy, played some small ball 5 in the playoffs and honestly wasn't killed there. That's a good bet any team could do.
I'd think on Sefolosha, being 35 years old, he took a big step back last season, and only had about 12 MPG with the Jazz, he might just be too washed out to be a trustable player particularly in the playoffs. Stanley Johnson was also an idea but the guy just seems a bit too far from not being an offensive net minus.
 

Investment:

Danuel House, 26 years old, RFA, Houston Rockets
The Rockets have House's non-bird rights, what means that they can pay him nothing more than the 120% minimum, what means they'd have to use their MLE to really keep him. If Butler's coming, they'd be so pressed next to the appron having to hire like 10 guys to fill out the roster, that they might not match a good salary.
They also might not match it they're still worried about paying the tax. They already have 117 million on 6 players, filling in with 7 minimum guys they'd be on about 129 million, so they're still very close to the tax (132 million). Offer him a long term contract on about 6-7 million and watch Fertitta counting the pennies.
My prediction: 5-7 million

Just give him another chance:

Jabari Parker, 24 years old, UFA, Washington Wizards
I thought that he played badly, but athletically he was alright. Parker can really score and restore his value to a similar level to Kyle Kuzma (who's 4 months young) in the right fit. I'd bet on giving him a long term contract if I'm the Kings, Knicks or the Clippers if I have no where else to spend at. I'd happily give him a 4 years 35 million with about 24 million in guaranteed money
My prediction: 5-10 million

Comments:

I didn't like that post as much, there just isn't a lot of answers here, the mid-tier SF is a big weakness of the market.
 
 

Targeting Power Forwards

The Power Forward is a position where in the playoffs wings that can play small ball 5 are really valuable, so it's a position of high demand, finding players that can be serviceable back-ups in the playoffs for close to the minimum is already a major victory.
2 interesting players I'd like to talk about are Nikola Mirotic and Al Farouq Aminu, They are good players that might not comeback to their original team but with the strong market of it's position I don't believe they will provide good contract because they still have far too many weakness exploitable in the playoffs to justify a starter level of contract.
Another interesting player would be Carmelo Anthony. Like I said, having a serviceable back-up player for the minimum at the wing is a major win, and I won't pencil Melo as a sure thing as a good back-up 4, but I think he can still make a comeback to play 10-15 minutes on a good team.

Under the radar Free Agents

*Player name, age on day 1 next season, type of FA, team he lastly played for
DeMarre Carroll, 33 years old, UFA, Brooklyn Nets
Carroll is a not so good 3, deteriorated D kind of player, who didn't play well in the last playoffs, but if I don't think it would kill you to give 10-15 minutes for him a game in the playoffs with his hustle and at least teams won't let him open in the corner. That's the kind of impact James Ennis gave to the 76ers and you can see the importance in that, Carroll even gives you a bit better size, experience and some veteran leadership. A team like Sacramento could give him a contract.
My prediction: 5-9 million/year, maybe 12/2.
JaMychal Green, 29 years old, UFA, LA Clippers
Green was always a favorite of mine, but this year he showed his full potential on the Clippers, particularly in the playoffs with those 5 fouls in 1 quarter agaisnt the Warriors as a small ball 5. Highly versatile, a 4/5 that can hit 3s, JaMychal Green has obvious fit in the modern NBA, and would fit well as a backup 5 in the playoffs with the Lakers.
My prediction: 4-8 million/year
Mike Scott, 31 years old, UFA, Philadelphia
Scott has had a similar path to Green and has a similar style of play, with similar fit. I'd call him a plan B to Green though.
My prediction: 4-8 million/year
Taj Gibson 34 years old, UFA, Minnesota Timberwolves
Taj is a bit washed up, but he could be really good as a back-up 4 and playing some small ball 5. He's still a beast at the boards, still plays great D, and still is a very efficient offensive player. He even shot some 3s this year, a skill that would be very interesting for him to expand as he ages.
My prediction: 5-7 million/year, what about 18/3?
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, 24 years old, UFA, Brooklyn Nets
The Nets made him a unrestricted FA and that should interest other teams. I don't think RHJ will ever be a 3 point shooter, but he's a great defender, and could fit teams in a specific role as a D specialist, in similar way to Royce O'Neale. He had a great 3rd year, with a TS% of 55%, but than he regressed a lot on year (got less to the line, got to 46.4 TS%). If he can bounce back he's a solid rotation wing, so that's a good bet particularly because I think he'll go basically for free this offseason.
My prediction: min-5 million/year, signs a 1 year deal
 
My favorite fits: Carroll - Kings, Green - Lakers or Celtics, Scott - 76ers, Gibson - Hawks, RHJ - Suns

Not cheap, but might be worth it

Thaddeus Young, 31 years old, UFA, Indiana Pacers
Let's start with my no.1 guy in the position: Thaddeus Young. The Pacers reportedly are planing on Playing sabonis at the 4 and won't resign him. I'm very curious to see a more aggresive team that would put Young more at the 5 and encourage him to shoot more, as he already matches agaisnt 5s in most matchups, and could use his post-up game against small ball lineups. When Oladipo was there, Young was lethal in the pick and roll this past season, and I wonder what would he do with a good pairing. Young definitely gives you starter production for a not that big of a price. I really woud like to see him on the Jazz, or even in the Mavs playing aside Porzingis.
My prediction: 11-15 million/year, maybe 50/4 or 45/3

Minimum players: best fill-out roster options

Jeff Green, 33 years old, UFA, Washington Wizards
Jeff Green had good size and is still really athletic, he can shoot and is still an iron man, rarely missing games. He was a solid player last year (The advanced numbers confirm that, RPM of -0.83 which is about average for a SF) and is the kind of 3 and D wing that teams really need, I definetely believe he can log in playoff minutes without hurting it's team. Minnesotta could use him to sub for Dario Saric.
Kenneth Faried, 29 years old, UFA, Houston Rockets
Faried rejuvenated his career with the Rockets, showing versatility and that he still is that monster of an athlete. His rim-running + vertical spacing already has some value, his 8/21 in 3 PT shooting don't really gives you a lot of indication, but he being confident enough to shoot it in game might. The advanced numbers showed him as a neutral player (-0.17 RPM, +0.37 PIPM), what's good for back-up. The team certainly would need some adjustments in terms of defense. He should probably re-sign with the Rockets though.
Luol Deng, 34 years old, UFA, Minnesota Timberwolves
Deng can't be overused, but he's still a really smart team defender, the ability to get some buckets and to shoot a little bit. He probably can play a feel minutes in the playoffs without killing you in the 4, and that's valuable.

Investment

Trey Lyles, 23 years old, RFA, Denver Nuggets
Lyles played poorbly this last year, particularly on offense, and the Nuggets already will have Millsap + MPJr + Juancho in the 4, so it's a low chance they're re-signing him. Teams should look into Lyles as still a project, who just had a really bad year (particularly with his shooting, he's a career 33.1% 3P shooter, but shot 25.5% last year), who will probably regress this year, and has a lot of ball handling for a big. He could still be a very interesting player on offense and he's already good on D. A team like the Suns could take a chance on him.
Since I've written the original post he was extended the qualifying offer. That makes this situation a bit harder, although I'd probably say a 24 million over 3 years offer would make it unlikely, but I'm not sure anymore that's actually a bargain.
My prediction: 5 million per year, maybe 15/3 years

Just give him another shot

Markieff Morris, 30 years old, UFA, Indiana Pacers
Markieff Morris never really looked healthy in OKC. But he looked the better Morris brother his hole career, and I think he's really worth another shot as a 4/small ball 5 for a contender, as a buy low candidate. He can shoot a bit and has wing size, these 2 things already have some value, if he reabilitates physically and mentally he could give you starter production basically for free.
My prediction: signs for minimum.
 
The post pretty much ends here.
 

Bonus: Directly from Europe

Derrick Williams, Bayern Munich
Derrick Williams was ok in europe, I just really wanted to let you guys know he's planning a comeback to the NBA, but he doesn't really make it to any of the classes here because I don't think he'll really contribute if he comes back.
Mindaugas Kuzminskas, 29 years old, UFA, Olimpia Milano
Kuzmisnkas is a good fill-out roster for the minimum option, and he's also planing a comeback to the league. Good size, athleticism and an ok 3 point shot, I'd take a flyer on him for minimum. What's up Knicks fans!

Comments:

The Nuggets extending Lyles the qualifying offer surprised me a lot. I still think they won't match an offer for him that puts them close to the tax, specially because they have the extensions of Murray and Beasley incoming and should constraint them over the next years.
The Power Forward position actually has a good depth, that'd make me optismitic if I'm a team like the Suns, the Jazz or the Warriors and I am in need of one. Thaddeus Young just might be a big steal in this Free Agency.
 
 

Targeting Centers

The Center is a very rich position in terms of players, I have a list of 33 interesting players at the 5 (or players at the 4 that COULD be seen as a 5), excluding players like Gortat and Chandler that are a bit washed out.
Player Player 2 Player
Vucevic Horford BroLo
Cousins Valanciunas DAJordan
Enes Kanter WCStein Young*
Vonleh Dewayne Dedmon Bobby Portis
Thomas Bryant RoLo Khem Birch
Ed Davis Maxi Kleber Taj
JaMychal Green Faried Zubac
Marjanovic Kevon Looney Holmes
Daniel Theis Jordan Bell KOQ
Muscala McGee Noah
Cheick Diallo Salah Mejri Karminsky
 
Considering the conclusion of my last post mocking the 2019 Free Agency, the results of 2018 Free Agency (Hey Nerlens Noel) you'd expect there will be a lot of bargains out there. The Room and Tax MLE will be powerfull, and possibly the BAE (Bi-Annual Exception, at 3.6 million this year).
It might also be a lot of 1 year contracts, considering there are really no advantages in signing back-up centers to long salaries:
  • Low trade value of back-up and even low tier starters at the 5, even if at good contracts (See Ivica Zubac)
  • Flexibility going forward, possibility to get younger.
  • No dead money risk from a injury or massive drop-off.
  • There will always be a good center available at the next free agency
  • You never know what's the next draft going to be, that roster spot and minutes might have better value next season on a Zach Collins kind of guy.
 
Players I'd like to talk a bit about it:
I don't quite like Julius Randle. He was a 20/10 players last season, but in a real playoff team what does he do? He is a big defense liability, still doesn't quite space the floor. It hurts too much to put him out there, I think he'll be too targetted in a playoff series. Randle's contract might be around 15+ million if the Knicks really strike out at everything else. I wouldn't pay him the MLE in this circumstances.
Aaron Baynes: Baynes might be bought out by the Suns either now or in February, keep an eye for him.
An interesting contract: Is the Nerles Noel special. There are a lot of centers that will probably get the minimum. The top tier of these guys like Robin Lopez and possibly Kanter will have some teams competting, and a 1 + 1 at the minimum will be the contract to look out for. That means an player option on year 2, pretty much to give this guy some guarantee on being in the league next year.
 

Under the radar Free Agents

*Player name, age on day 1 next season, type of FA, team he lastly played for
Ed Davis, 30 years old, UFA, Brooklyn Nets
If you don't count the fake reserves like Harrell and Sabonis (they play starting minutes pretty much) Ed Davis was the best back-up center in last year's league. He's a good enough switch guy, rebounding machine, good defensive player, solid pick and roller. And it just doesn't seem the Market has turned that well for him. The Nets are reportedly going after DeAndre Jordan, so that's one less competitor. I'd love him on the 76ers.
My prediction: 4-8 million
Nerlens Noel, 25 years old, UFA, OKC Thunder
The Thunder are obviously too deep into the tax and they don't have bird rights to re-sign him even if he wasn't. Noel is a low tier-starter in this league IMO. He'd be absolutely great at any team just because of how well of a defender he's, but I'd really like him in the Celtics if they sign Kemba and end up without a starting Center. The Lakers would be good in terms of opportunity for him, or a team that miss out on a bigger center, like possibly the New Orleans Pelicans.
My prediction: 4-6 million
Khem Birch, 27 years old, RFA, Orlando Magic
This is more of a situational one, if the Magic actually re-sign Vucevic and T-Ross, they will be too close to the tax to re-sign him. Khem Birch was one of the best back-up centers in the league last year. If the Magic aren't willing to re-sign him, he could be in the room-MLE - taxpayer MLE level.
My prediction: 4-8 million

Not Cheap might be worth it

Brook Lopez. But wait a minute, I think I have a better one: Not spending top dollars in the Center position. Honestly you can get production for so cheap that I rather just take the Warriors route.
The Warriors route, 2015-19, Bogut/Zaza/Looney/Bell/Jones/Cousins
Filling out your roster with 3 or 4 centers with them having different playstyles, so you can adequate it to your matchup.
Some suggestions:
  1. KOQ, Noel, JaMyChal Green
  2. WCStein, Karmisnky, Bell
  3. Davis, McGee, Theis, Noah
Just a thought, mix it up a slower great defensive center (Bogut), a switching guy (Looney/Bell) and a floor spacer (Cousins).

Minimum players: best fill-out roster options

Robin Lopez, 31 years old, UFA, Chicago Bulls
He's 31 years old and 2 months. what's actually younger than I though he was. He's pretty much the definition of solid in the center position. Great block out guy, makes your team rebound better, good pick and roll, smart defender. And he's really stable, being pretty much a sure thing.
Richaun Holmes, 26 years old, UFA, Phoenix Suns
Holmes played really well this year, I love Ayton and his potential, but many times the Suns looked better with Holmes at the 5. He's still kind of young, last year he really simplified things: Stopped shooting 3s and just did the things he does best, rebounding, blocking shots, going strong in the pick and roll.
Taj Gibson, 34 years old, UFA, Minnesota Timberwolves
Honestly it's a bit more unrealistic for him to only get the minimum, I think the BAE or room MLE might be just as likely, but he would be such a great piece for the playoffs, he's still a great defender and rebounder, really smart and efficient guy that fits really well a team that actually wants to contend. When you're playing the finals, there's only about 2 or 3 bench guys that can actually play without killing you, if you get one of them for the minimum you're good.
But he will surely get the room MLE or part of the tax from someone
He earned 70 million dollars over his career (so that considerable money) though and he's 10 year veteran, so his minimum is $2,561,463, making the BAE not so lucrative and he could get a 1+1 worth 5.25 million, what's close in terms of guarantee money even to a team that gives him the full tax MLE. And maybe for that difference he just decides to play for the minimum for a team that offers a better option. I'd actually really like him on the Warriors.
 

Investment

Jordan Bell, 24 years old, RFA, GSWarriors
The Warriors are reportedly really high on Damian Jones, so I don't expect them to bring Bell back on a long term contract, specially considering Green's salary in 2020 and that they've addded Smailagic who'll end up overlapping a bit with Bell.
Bell didn't play very well last year, but he had a great rookie season, a really smart player with some size issues, could be an useful piece on the playoffs more than in the regular season.
*My prediction: A 3 years BAE might be enough here (11.3 million - 3 years)
PS: Why not Thomas Bryant? Someone will probably think: The Wizards have to re-sign Ariza (at least they hope to), Jabari Parker, Bobby Portis (who they've traded for) and Satoransky (they don't have another PG on the books). They just might be in the tax when it's time for their last signing of these 5 players. And that could mean the player could easily walk. But I don't think they would simply give away Thomas Bryant for the BAE or something. If that was the case they would simply match it and them trade some of these players for value during the season. Ariza will probably be really tradeable close to the playoffs. I think it would've to be a 7+ million dollars offer per year to actually steal him from the Wizards. Bryant is 21 years old, but he's more of a back-up center right now, and I think a 24 million contract for him would be more of a fair offer than a bargain. Specially considering the down side of signing centers for multiple year that I've specified here.

Just give him another shot

Kenneth Faried, 29 years old, UFA, Houston Rockets
Faried showed some range this past year, but he's really worth for bringing to the table offensive rebounding, switching ability and vertical spacing in the pick and roll. That's for a player that I honetly think will get the minimum or a 1+1 min.

Comments:

I really want to say here that Joakim Noah looked quite well on the Grizzlies and would also be a good pick-up as a minimum guy.
Some people had a problem with my Faried inclusion as a 5, but I'd stand by it that he could play the 5 with the right 4 besides him. A lot of people are excited about Noel what makes me think if I might not be undervaluing his market.
submitted by nadoperon to nbadiscussion [link] [comments]

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