Buyer Beware: Sports Betting Touts In The Era Of Legalization

Roland Garros Men's & Women's Round of 16 Writeup

A lot of people are asking for gambling advice. Mine would be don’t talk about mythical french dragons. After playing fast and loose with the dark arts, a pipe burst in my basement yesterday and I then found out that the shutoff valves had rusted out. Fun fact : flex tape makes you feel very optimistic when you’re stretching it over a leak but it doesn’t work, and just leaves you with new and creative angles for the leaks. I spent a lot of tiempo mopping my basement and setting things up for the plumbers, so I did miss a bit more of some matches than I’d really want to, which may help since I absolutely ate it on some of the round 3 matches.
Djokovic Khachanov : In an interview this week, Djokovic said, “My head is a perfect oval.” He was right, and it was on display against Galan. The first set was not only perfect tennis but entertaining. Novak (we’re on a first name basis) plays the kind of skillful game when he’s in control that is really enjoyable to watch. Time and time again he’s playing pingpong while other people are stuck covering a tennis court. The match tightened up in the second and third sets with Galan getting deep in a few games, but this was mostly a precursor to Djokovic’s first real test.
I had overlooked Khachanov in this draw because I felt he’d lose to Garin, but he played some great tennis today and his power and serving mean that while he may not have the best chance to win, he’ll certainly have an exciting affair with Djokovic. Garin withdrew from his doubles match a day or so ago and complained of dizziness. The physician was asking him how many fingers he was holding up and while he played pretty solid today, he had a sort of glazed look in his eyes throughout. After splitting sets I rather thought Garin would pull away. While Khachanov boasts a big offense, Garin’s speed makes it look like Khach has few options to score. Garin is just “there” for every shot, but he put a number of balls into the net with his forehand that he usually doesn’t.
Khachanov’s best chance in this match is to reign in the offense a bit. Djokovic thrives when his opponents make errors but sometimes gets frustrated when they make him work. The benevolent racquet applauding dropshot hitting Djokovic wins in style. The grumpy laugh at the sky shake his head smash a racquet Djokovic occasionally drops a set. It’s a testament to how good he is that he’s playing Khachanov and the discussion is “what can Karen do to steal a set”. Djokovic in 3, but this is the first chance for him to really show his level.
Carreño Busta Altmaier : Pablo, or Wobblo (as he’s known by rival trapeze crews) gave RBA a very long day. There were times when RBA took the lead but never for long. Carreno’s power was the big factor here and he hit a number of forehand winners. The inside in forehand he’s hitting is really deceptive and since inside-out is his usual pattern it works doubly well. I’m not sure patterns will be so ingrained in his next opponent as they are in RBA though. Altmaier is the story of the men’s side thus far having not dropped a single set through three rounds that continue to get more and more impressive. He plays very solid, hits hard, and his serving is surprisingly consistent even though it doesn’t seem like the biggest weapon. Berretini, though, refused to play more than a few shots per rally in this one. The first ball he could swing at he hit for winners. The ones he couldn’t drive he went for bailout dropshots. It was difficult watching him be so impatient to win rallies when they’re really nothing wrong with his defense or baseline game. Even in a straight set loss he had multiple looks at getting the lead in this match but there were just too many errors, and Altmaier playing at such a fast pace led to Berretini never really getting out of his rush.
After beating Struff and Berretini, it’s pretty clear that Altmaier will be a threat in this match. The last player to take a set off the hardworking German was Ruben Bemelmans in qualifying, and that result is half a puzzle now considering his consistency. I’m struggle to decide what to expect here. It’s another in a stream of these brand new matchups, which is great for the tour but difficult for anyone “trying” to make predictions. A good point to make here is that this is a reason “touts” and “prediction services” fail. By virtue of always trying to write a story or offer a possible outcome, you overextend beyond what your knowledge is. You come up with defendable positions rather than honest advice. It’s easy to write something convincing about a sporting event. All day long we’re thinking about potential futures in our head that will never come to be. Am I having a moment? Maybe. Perhaps it’s because I’m watching Collins bottle every volley or overhand she earns at the end of any point she’s winning. I learned about the term bottling this week. I’m gonna use it.
PCB should win this. Altmaier has benefitted greatly thus far from the errors of his opponents. PCB made very few of these in his match with RBA, just had a great run at the USO, and is the steadier player. It may take a while, since Altmaier is in such excellent form, but I still lean Wobblo, and maintain that that wire in the 2005 Southern Spain Trapeze Championships wasn’t regulation. PCB in 4.
Fucsovics Rublev : Are there no more lefty clay-courters left for Fucsovics to play? After disposing of ARV and Monteiro without much trouble, Fucovics magical victory against Medvedev is a distant memory. Time for another? Rublev beat Anderson pretty easily, and the bigman’s power during rallies was not much use against Rublev’s ballstriking. The matchup here is Rublev’s offense vs Fucsovics shot tolerance. The big Hungarian, who as we all know is from Nyíregyháza, is probably in the best shape of anyone on tour not named Nadal. He utilizes his speed and strength to really make the baseline small for opponents, and his precision game is something he keeps going with a reserved manner. He’ll never give away a match, and this is a good thing to have in his pocket since Rublev has a history of frustrations and errors. That history though, has not been present since the restart of the tour.
Rublev has been smoking the ball starting in Hamburg and his returning has been half clean winners and half solid returns. There is a good chance he will get into a number of Fucs’ service games and if you’ve ever had a wild squirrel with orange hair inside a duffel bag this is what it’s like to have Rublev in your service games. Squirrel smuggling in 4. I mean Rublev.
Dimitrov Tsitsipas : Oh heckkkkkk yeah. This is really and truly a brilliant round of 16 on both sides. Dimitrov was fortunate to receive an injury withdrawal from Carballes Baena, but he didn’t really need it. The big Bulgarian (who only appears past the second round once a year when the moon is full) has been in rare form this week, winning the matches he’s supposed to win and overall playing very overwhelming and consistent ball. This is what the fans want. I fade these guys at times and discuss their issues with consistency, but I absolutely concede that I would forfeit money to see the talent on display that Grigor possesses. Omg Collins won. How do ya like that. Anyway Dimitrov and Tsitsipas probably have two of the most “similar” games on tour, but one of them does way more with it. Tsitsipas played an injured Bedene who had issues with his ankle, and eventually retired, but similar to Grigor he really didn’t need it. Tsitsipas shrugged off the USO defeat, was good in Hamburg, and has been great so far in this event. Dimitrov’s athleticism and form can keep this one close for a while, but it really seems like Tsitsipas has elevated to another level here, and a rematch with Rublev is incoming. Tsitsipas in 4.
Sonego Schwartzman : Lorenzo Sonego can get things off the top shelf in the supermarket for you. Sometimes you’ll just be eating lunch somewhere in the world and Lorenzo Sonego will just snatch one of ur fries. This dude is lanky goodness, and something about him makes me want to buy a car. Fritz and Sonego played a really good match, and it was a good example of how a player can play 1 bad game and lose in straight sets. Fritz didn’t do much wrong here, but Sonego was excellent on the forehand wing. In the pressure moments he found big shots, and since Fritz wins behind his forehand, this gave him a slight disadvantage throughout.
Diego was down early to Gombos, but the guy manufactures breaks of serve better than anybody on tour. Consistently him, Nadal, and Djokovic are the top 3 in service breaks on tour, plus, he never steals french fries. This matchup is closer than people will expect. Sonego is very comfortable on clay and is solid enough to hang with Diego for stretches. If he serves well, he’ll be able to threaten to win sets. Fritz and Sonego was a long match, but two straight sets victories against servers won’t have Sonego in any fatigue issues. Diego is probably the best player left in the draw who you know won’t win the tournament, but he has a tendency to fall behind early in sets and this could become an issue since Sonego hasn’t really been making errors so far. I don’t like the -700 pricetag, but Diego should be able to break down Sonego’s backhand over the course of the match. Schwartzman in 4-5.
Gaston Thiem : Several times I looked at Gaston and Wawrinka’s match and felt like Wawrinka was playing great but the match was being played at Gaston’s tempo. Wawrinka needs time to set up, and with pauses in the rallies he becomes very difficult to beat. Gaston kept the ball moving though and that lateral war is not something that favors Wawrinka. It shoudn’t hurt him though. What ended up happening to Wawrinka was he played Gaston into the perfect training partner for him, and once Gaston had a read on where Wawrinka was going it became half a waste of time for Wawrinka to be hitting so hard. Fatigue set in in the 5th set, and Gaston honestly was the smarter competitor in this one.
Thiem and Ruud seemed like a high quality affair, but that only lasted for a brief period. Thiem is starting to really pull away late in matches and the reserved composure he plays with early in them has thus far not been solved by any of his opponents. A healthy dose of slices from Steve Johnson sees him losing, but the same strategy from Thiem (largely since he has the other one-handed stroke) sees opponents trapped trying to manufacture angles that feed into Thiem’s best shot. His accuracy when he plays down the line is starting to get real scary, since it was largely a redline shot in 2018 and a 60-40 prospect in 2019. I would say the AO where he beat Nadal was the first time where his backhand down the line was just an automatic point, and really how will people defend that as these long stretches of wins make him more comfortable and more confident? The kid is a monster, and yes tennis he also has a big butt.
Gaston will present the same steady defending and pace to Thiem, but Thiem is a much fitter player than Wawrinka and has a lot more variety/consistency in his game. Thiem in 3.
Zverev Sinner : Here I go hating again. Zverev has become like Fritz for me. I recognize that I tend to devalue their ability and focus on their bad performances/errors, and this skews my judgement. Writing these articles is beneficial for noting leaks like that. In their 3rd round contest though, Zverev and Cecchinato switched roles. Zverev made his first fast start in quite some time (I’d somewhat discount the USO against Thiem because that was more about Thiem being awful to begin) and returned extremely well. He was ripping his forehand crosscourt which is something we haven’t seen from him except in some rare instances late in matches. What went on on the other side of the net though was pretty difficult to watch. Cecchinato was cheated in this match. Nobody informed him of the new ATP rule about the ball having to both clear the net AND land inside the court. He will be filing an appeal, as he avoided both of these things like the plague. Not only did he make a ton of errors, but he took a return position not deep enough to return, and not shallow enough to catch the ball at a decent height. This was the Cecchinato that didn’t win a match for an entire year on tour, and after his first two matches where he was brilliant it is relatively unexplainable why he played this way. Even in this terrible form he was serving for the second set, and the momentum looked to shift but again, he was unaware of the new rules.
Sinner needed two come from behind sets against Coria to win, but he has shown that he is able to consistently produce his offense give the chance, and really what he struggles with is his lateral movement. More so on the forehand wing, but when he’s drawn wide he makes a lot of errors. It’s a similar issue to Kyle Edmund, and it’s partially the extreme grip. If Zverev shows up the same as he did against Cecchinato, he should win this, but even in a terrible lopsided loss, Cecchinato still won 9 games. Sinner will be significantly better, and where Cecchinato couldn’t get an unreturned serve, Sinner has a very competent service motion and can earn easier returns. In the interest of not just picking against Zverev every time, I will point out that Sinner has had fatigue issues late in matches, and Zverev served very well in his previous match. I think there is a big Ferrer factor with Zverev as he has seemed to have a specific gameplan in a few of his matches the past few events. This should be a high octane affair and the victory likely goes to who minimizes their errors. Passive Zverev loses this. Good first serve percentage Zverev wins it. Personally, as a person, I am the sort of person who thinks Sinner is going to win, but not if it goes to 5 sets. Sinner in 4.
Korda Nadal : Korda was probably the surprise of the round for most bettors. Pedro Martinez had been rolling through this draw and has become a very productive player against the 5-150 range of the tour. Korda is very smooth and displays the type of comfort on a tennis court that lets you know he’ll be on tour for a long time. He serve-volleys extremely well, and his forehand is smooth. The trouble with predicting he’d beat Martinez, is Martinez is different from anyone he’d played. Beating Seppi is good, but Seppi is a guy who never really wins a round during the clay season. Beating Isner is great, but Isner’s movement on clay is abysmal and he’s been less than stellar the past season or so. Playing a claycourter who’s been at the top of his game, it’s tough to look and say “Korda’s got this.” Yet, he had it, breaking over and over, and earning a primetime slot against Nadal. Since he’s so early in his career, no result here will be demoralizing for Korda. There’s still that “getting on court with an idol” benefit for him, and though he likely can’t win a set, any service hold or rally won will be a confidence boost for him. All positives here, but Nadal at RG is just a constant drag on his opponents physical reserves. I expect Korda’s serving to falter as this progresses. Nadal in 3.
Halep Swiatek : Anisimova looked good on a few shots early against Halep, showing her easy power. Unfortunately, as soon as Halep moved her she earned an error. This was the same pattern of Halep moving Anisimova over and over, and so the scoreline looks devastating, but it’s really just one issue that Anisimova will have to work on. Her movement on clay needs to improve to challenge the top players. Swiatek and Bouchard was a highly anticipated contest since both had kinda found their games in the restart, but Swiatek was all over her from the start. I am a big fan of underdogs, and on a tour where matches are often decided by a few key points, taking things for granted when backing a favorite is usually costly, but Halep’s defeat of Swiatek here last year was comprehensive. Swiatek is a great player, and her commitment to offense can really get her through tight matches, but Halep’s defending is the sort that there aren’t just endless chances to pick the next shot. She counterpunches with depth and is adept at passing players at net even on the run. Like a tiny Andy Murray, she makes the court seem small, and is perfectly comfortable playing her own offense when the open court presents itself. Halep in 2.
Trevisan Bertens : When you see a baby smile, you smile. It is the same phenomenon with Martina Trevisan. I called her Marta in the last post, and I apologize. Martina smiles from the first to the last point, and it is absurdly refreshing to see someone visibly enjoying their time competing. Sakkari was in full control of their match early, as Trevisan is a generally defensive player, winning by outlasting her opponents and by baiting them into lateral coverage contests. Trevisan was broken serving for the 2nd set but never stopped fighting. She was down multiple times in the tiebreaker but never stopped fighting. Her use of the moonball was exceptional, and Sakkari really missed an opportunity by not moving in on these shots. You’ll make some errors, but giving up court position is almost always wrong. Moonballs are offensive opportunities, and your opponent isn’t hitting them because everything is A ok on the other side of the net. They’re in trouble, and are hoping to buy time. Sakkari seemed throughout this like she’d win. She was really the better player, but her backhand made errors, and as the match descended into constant patterns of attack she found less open court and more smiley lady returns. Trevisan gave me actual joy watching her win her last two matches, and watching her hit her forehand cross court the entire match, then down the line whenever Sakkari bailed out too find a forehand was really remarkable.
Bertens has become a confusing prospect to me, but after a quick dismissal of Siniakova it’s clear she’s not dealing with residual cramping issues from her match with Errani. Trevisan was able to outlast Sakkari, but Bertens presents a more well-rounded attack. I don’t write Trevisan off, but she’s the sort of player who can’t put distance between herself and her opponents. She doesn’t really serve aces, she doesn’t really possess big power, and while she has a great deal of body control in her defending, she does give her opponent the ball to hit. I lean towards Bertens in 2.
Svitolina Garcia : Simple victory for Svitolina against Alexandrova. She hasn’t lost in the last two weeks and Alexandrova’s movement/offense weren’t enough. Garcia was beaten handily in the first set, and I was getting drenched by water coming from the ceiling in the second and third. I can say honestly that beating Kontaveit makes no sense, beating Mertens makes no sense, and now the very low +145 line for Garcia against Svitolina who is great on clay and won the last tournament makes me think she’s in line for another victory, and again it won’t make sense. Garcia makes the kind of errors that professional tennis player don’t make. She seems very awkward at times on her backhand, winding up with her racquet in too close and pulling the ball wide. She struggled early to find the pace of the ball against Mertens and dragged a number of shots long. When she does have her timing though, she crushes the ball. It’s the kind of offense you need to be standing still to execute, but the ball gets through the court quickly, and she tends to go big on returns which can mean a lot late in matches in the WTA.
The puzzle for me in seeing Svitolina listed lower is compounded by seeing that Garcia beat her in their most recent meeting on clay in 2018. Svitolina’s speed and consistency in moving her opponent is the sort of equation that Garcia has consistently lost again. Sometimes though, you have to admit you might be wrong. I lean towards Svitolina ending Garcia’s run here, but I get a similar sense that I did when watching footage of Anderson/Lajovic after being unsure why Anderson would have an edge. I would avoid this one, and I’m still picking Svitolina, but there’s reason to believe Garcia’s run will continue. Svitolina in 2.
Podoroska Krejcikova : Podoroska would be the first qualifier to win a major. That’s how good she has looked throughout her first three rounds, and now she gets a very interesting test. Krejcikova has a slow looking big swing, but the power she lazily seems to generate has shut down her last opponents in the deciding set. It seems like she’s out of it, and in her match against Pironkova she was down a set and looked like she’d be broken and lose in two, but her backhand kept firing, and her forehand was heavy enough to break down Pironkova. Podoroska and Schmiedlova was highly anticipated but didn’t deliver. Schmiedlova’s win against Azarenka seems to have been more about Azarenka, and Podoroska’s offense was in control from start to finish. I haven’t really seen a more noticeable impact player come onto the tour in a while, and though Krejcikova can wear down her opponents, I expect Podoroska to expose her lapses in play where Strycova and Pironkova wore down. Podoroska in 2.
Jabeur Collins : Sabalenka has to be crushed after losing that match. She played exceptional and was only a few inches off on the shots she was missing. After rolling through the second set Jabeur seemed out of this contest, and Sabalenka threatened to break in the third a few times, but Jabeur served well in those pressure moments, serving that we haven’t really seen from her yet this event. The out-wide serve from the duece court was a big factor, and her forehand was crispy. I finished up the day by watching Collins and Muguruza, and it did not disappoint. Collins was the better player in the first set despite being way ahead of Mugu in the errors column. Late in the first set Muguruza had only made 1 forehand error and I had thought Collins solid play and aggressive drives would force Muguruza into errors and that’d be her path to victory. Not so. This was a contest of solid ballstriking throughout, and in the second set Collins missed her targets. She won rallies but lost points, spraying balls wide or long anytime she got a look at a break point. It was hard to watch, and it continued early in the third. She was broken immediately, had a few breakback points and squandered them, and endured one of the longest stretches of missing overheads and swinging volleys that I’ve ever seen. It was 2018 Djokovic level overhead troubles, and the worst part was she was playing excellent and could have been right in the match.
At 3-0 in the third it looked over, but Muguruza serving at 40-15 found a double fault. Then she found an error. Then she found some more double faults. It took a while because Collins was still really choking, but she broke for 3-1. Muguruza really lost her game from 3-1 on, and only notched one more game. Her serve had been excellent throughout, and just disappeared. Her defending had been excellent, but she misjudged balls and found the net. It was a really confusing loss for Muguruza, but the secondary story was how well Collins was hitting the ball. She really crushed her backhand today, and stepped in on every moonball offering Muguruza served up. I would say she hit her forehand inside out less than 10 times in the match, but it was a decent strategy as it kept her in a rhythm.
So can she beat Jabeur? Collins looked a ball off on all her serves today, and actually all her aces in the match were called as lets. If she finds the rhythm, she can run away with this match, as her backhand is so solid and her proclivity for hugging the baseline will challenge Jabeur’s movement. Her issues will be the same here as against Muguruza; when she loses range she tends to play a few games where she hits the ball a few inches too deep, it’s almost as if she needs to remember to control her swing, as I saw her make a visible adjustment in the third where she wasn’t taking such a huge followthrough. This will be a good opportunity for both of them, and both have just beaten an opponent that says that they are genuine title contenders. The names are disappearing from this draw and the players left might not always get these opportunities, but their level of play says they deserve them. Collins in 3
Ferro Kenin : Fiona Ferro was so stressful to watch today. I felt she’d have control against Tig, and I was right but it didn’t translate to a simple victory. Tig is simply a divine defender, and her slices were touted by the announcers as ineffective but they kept Ferro from ever developing any rhythm. Tig wears her heart on her sleeve, and she looks like you stole her baby bunny after she loses points, and screams deafeningly loud after she wins points. It all was a bit distracting from the match, and as the crowd got into it she got a bit more frustrated. After taking a few years off the tour to have one of those babies, Tig really has to be pleased with her restart, and while she lost a lopsided 3rd set, she should have won the tiebreaker, and definitely was the better player in the 2nd set. Tig’s problem in this one was that Ferro seemed to play her best tennis once she was down. Whether it was a break or a break point, Ferro locked down her game when she needed to and although Tig comes up with a lot of great offense when it seemed like she’d never attempt any, she lacks power and is largely just a defensive grinder. The backhand broke down for Tig in the 3rd set, and it was a shame but a great win for Ferro.
Kenin and Bara was a fun match for Bara while she was up 2-0, but from there it was literally all Kenin. Do you think Kenin walks to the store or to walk her dog the same as she does around the court? She’s a legit marcher. She doesn’t seem like the best claycourter, but the round prior she found her range in one set, and in this one she really was excellent. Her backhand is just no place to direct the ball, and she’s begun playing a dropshot down the line off it that pairs so well with her crosscourt offering. Add in a forehand that isn’t huge but has a lot of whip on it, and you have a very difficult ask for Bara. In previous matches Bara’s speed and defending had exposed her opponents, but here since Kenin wasn’t making errors, Bara had difficult scoring points. Her serve left her after she got down in the scoreline, and it was one way traffic.
Ferro and Kenin is a match I expected Kenin to be priced higher in. Oddsmakers have set it as a pickem and while Ferro was great in the third set she really struggled to beat Tig and Kenin’s defense is a similar level but with more power. Stylistically, Kenin’s offense will be easier for Ferro to deal with than it was for Bara, as Ferro is adept at net and has a solid backhand and forehand. The power is there, and she’s very comfortable on clay, but she made a bit too many errors today against Tig for me to see her hitting through Kenin for an entire match. Playing at home though, and given how open her offense will be playing someone who isn’t using so many slices, she’ll be a tough test. Against Rybakina Ferro was excellent, and didn’t make the errors that she did when Tig slowed the game down. I am starting to think Kenin could have a good chance to make the finals though, as her next two matches are ones she should win. Kenin in 3.
Kvitova Zhang : Kvitova really played a great match today. Her stretch forehand created angles over and over, and once she did her backhand power through the court was just unreal reliable. Fernandez was everywhere, and led 5-2 in the first, but Kvitova wore her down, and it wasn’t just power but movement as well. Kvitova has shown up for this event, and pulling victory from a match where she was not on her favorite surface and down early is a very good sign. Zhang was solid today, but I really felt Burel would be a better test for Kvitova. Burel is just plain great. She plays like she’s never had a coach and just understands tennis. She serves well, executes any shot from anywhere when it’s right, and though she seems like a small Lauren Davis type she crushes the ball. It was a tough loss as she seemed throughout the match like she’s cross the finish line, but Zhang basically locked down on defense, and hitting through someone on clay for an entire match is just a tough tough thing to do. Sometimes you play better but lose the match, and that was Burel today.
Kvitova played a better defender in Fernandez, and one with more offense also. Zhang has been playing great, but plays in predictable crosscourt patterns and Kvitova’s power does tend to earn her balls to hit. Barring a similar slow start as she had against Fernandez, Kvitova in 2.
Siegemund Badosa : Siegemund turned around her match against Martic in excellent fashion. She always notches some wins on clay but knee injuries really have kept her from deep runs in the past two seasons. This though is a career changing moment for her. She can beat Badosa Gibert. I don’t say that just because she’s playing so well, but also because even on paper this isn’t an upset for Siegemund. Both are playing very consistent ball and thriving against offensive talents because of it. Ostapenko hit a lot of very angry shots, but every time she loses it’s because of her movement and because of her errors. It’s one plan and that’s ok but the tour is full of defensive tests and that plan isn’t likely to net her any further titles. Badosa is just 20 years old through to her first round of 16 which is brilliant. Someone is going to get their first huge paycheck this event and there isn’t a lot to separate these two. Siegemund has played a lot of offensive talents thus far, and seems to have thrived on moving them as the matches progress. She’s very coherent and measured, but Badosa’s speed may be a major factor in negating that. Badosa also won their most recent meeting on clay last year in a third set. A year’s progress for a junior player can mean a world of difference, and I think the edge sits with her here. Badosa in 3.
PS The requests for possibly more betting advice haven’t fallen on deaf ears. The problem with listing out picks is what I referenced earlier : pick services have an end goal in mind of telling you a defendable story. There is a great deal more than selecting a few matches a day that goes into the process, and unfortunately unless you’re placing the same wagers while livebetting that I am, you’re getting different lines and different results over time. A lot of my decisions tend to reflect my individual status/risk preferences as I go as well, so it’s difficult to just present a comprehensive mirror for people to look at. I’m not saying no though, and I’ve been thinking more about how best to present content that will help ppl avoid losses and traps on the tour, as well as proffer some of the lessons that I learned along the way so that at a minimum, people can save time and skip those hurdles. For the French I’m just going to stick with the writeups, but I’m working on it and will definitely do something next season, and will likely post some generic content/analysis of how the tour’s format/rankings/surface changes lend themselves to some decent spots. Cheers. People say that in Europe.
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Your Pre-Market Brief for 08/20/2020

Your Pre Market Brief for Thursday August 20th 2020

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I just hit 5,000 subscribers this morning, my channel has been up for almost 13 months. Here is my obligatory post...

I uploaded my first video on July 29, 2019
I got approved for monetization on December 16, 2019
I hit the 5,000 sub mark this morning (August 24, 2020)
I am not going to rehash on all the advice you've seen on this sub a million times. I will just try to say what I believe is important
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2020 Italian GP Free Practice 1 and 2 Debrief - r/Formula1 Editorial Team

2020 Italian GP Free Practice 1 and 2 Debrief

Words by UnmeshDatta26, Death_Pig, and showstopperNL
Discussion Threads:

More Impactful News Since Belgium

After a busy week in Belgium saw several important developments, the F1 circus returns to the Temple of Speed having seen another busy week on the news front.

Williams Family Leaves F1

The Williams F1 team announced last weekend that the team has been sold to Dorilton Capital, a USA investment firm. At the time, the destiny of Sir Frank and especially that of Deputy Team Principal Claire Williams were up in the air, everyone involved giving vague and non-committal answers to questions about the direction of the team moving forward.
There were plenty of rumors flying around that neither would carry on in the team, and these were confirmed this week, as the team announced this will be Claire Williams’ last race as Deputy Team Principal, with no replacement named yet. Sir Frank and Sir Patrick Head founded the team 43 years ago and the Tuscany Grand Prix will be the first time the team is not headed by someone with the Williams last name.
In those years, the team won 7 Drivers’ titles, 9 Constructors’ titles, with drivers such as Keke Rosberg, Nigel Mansell, Nelson Piquet, Damon Hill, Alain Prost, Ayrton Senna, Damon Hill, David Coulthard, and Jacques Villeneuve driving for the team. More recently, Nico Rosberg, Valtteri Bottas, Sebastian Vettel, and Lance Stroll all got their first taste of an F1 car in a Williams.
The team faced incredible financial struggles after the car’s performance dropped in the last few years, with main sponsor Rokit ending their agreement before the 2020 season.
The team has announced that the Board of Directors will now be composed of Matthew Savage (chairman of Dorilton Capital), Darren Fultz (CEO of Dorilton), and James Matthews (CEO of Eden Rock Group).
The departure of the Williams family from F1 brings a lot of sadness to many fans, even if the team name will be maintained (for now, at least), as one of the legendary names in F1 leaves the sport. We say goodbye to the Williams family with sadness, as they were a great example of the determination, hard work, ingenuity, and commitment that helped Formula 1 become what it is today.

Technical Directive Slows Down Engines

The new Technical Directive designed to end the use of “party modes” has finally been set by the FIA. Teams will now have to use the same engine mode from the start of qualifying to the end of the race.
Nominally, it appears the objective of the TD is to hold Mercedes’ PUs back, but initial analysis shows that it may actually help the Mercedes-powered teams, so we will have to wait and see what actually happens.
It would be great for fans of Mercedes and of schadenfreude if the TD had the diametrically opposite effect.
ERS usage has not been affected, so drivers will still have their hybrid options available to them.

Tech Talk And Rules Update

For this weekend, we will be seeing the lowest downforce packages of the entire season, with the skinniest rear wings and the most angled front wings for each team. Some teams, such as McLaren, even tested parts for this weekend at Spa, as they all bring their lowest downforce package to Monza. Expect to see tiny rear wings and top speeds in excess of 350 kph over the weekend.
The FIA’s crackdown on track limit abuse marches on and at Monza, they are cracking the whip hard. Timing loops have been installed at the exit of Parabolica to monitor track extensions (with both the current and next laps being deleted if the driver goes beyond the limit), whereas last year they had to rely on camera shots to make sure the drivers kept all wheels inside the white lines, resulting in some confusion about some track extensions.
There looks to be no chance of rain, and the temperatures look to be stable and pleasant throughout the weekend.
Lastly, in an attempt to avoid a repeat of last year’s qualifying debacle, Michael Masi sent the teams a document reinforcing the rule of Article 27.4 of the Sporting Regulations while also establishing maximum lap times for FP3 and Qualifying.
[Note: Article 27.4 reads: “[a]t no time may a car be driven unnecessarily slowly, erratically or in a manner which could be deemed potentially dangerous to other drivers or any other person.”]
With the tow from another car being very powerful at Monza, however, we will have to wait for tomorrow to see if the FIA will in fact strictly enforce Article 27.4, and also wait to see if the tragicomical scenes from last year’s qualifying session will be repeated.
—-

Free Practice 1

Friday morning started off slow, with teams waiting a while before getting started. The first timed lap came with around 20 minutes gone in the session, Alexander Albon setting a time that was promptly deleted for track limits at Parabolica. It would not be the last time we would see that happen.
The track showed its greenness, multiple drivers locking up as they applied the brakes,, the most notable of these being Sebastian Vettel and Romain Grosjean, who both locked up their front tires going into the second chicane.
Vettel’s struggles were not restricted to a lock-up, though. The 4-time champion went off at Lesmo 1 and kicked up a lot of gravel, finishing the season with only the 19th fastest time, ahead only of Nicolas Latifi. The other Williams FW43 was driven by Israeli F2 driver Roy Nissany, who finished immediately ahead of Vettel in P18.
Max Verstappen was also in trouble during the session, losing the rear in the second leg of Ascari and crashing into barriers. He was able to limp home to the pits, sans his front wing. The usual quick Red Bull pit work had him back on track in a few minutes, but he could not find his usual torrid pace, while his teammate found himself third behind the all-powerful Mercedes duo.
Mercedes seemed unperturbed about the engine mode change ban, stamping their authority right from the start. Even if Valtteri Bottas appeared to struggle in the early going with a number of lock-ups and off-track excursions, he managed to set the fastest lap by the time the checkered flag came out, a 1:20.703 leading his teammate by over 0.2 second.
As has been the case throughout the season, the W11 reigned supreme around Monza, Albon’s best lap 0.797s slower than Bottas’ best effort. The Mercedes driver was irked by both the Williams drivers for their car placement, the Finn being very vocal about Latifi and Nissany not paying attention to the faster car’s approach.
Outside the rarefied heights of the W11, the midfield battle continued to be as tight as ever. AlphaTauri’s Pierre Gasly’s different to 17th placed Kimi Räikkönen was less than a second. Ferrari, usually a force at their home event, had another miserable session, along with the teams that use their PU. Charles Leclerc managed the 11th best time, 1.201 second to Bottas, while Haas had to retire Kevin Magnussen early due to cooling issues. While teams do run different programs with their drivers in Free Practices, the lack of pace of the Ferrari-powered cars is still evident at Monza.
The battle in the midfield seems to be tightening up, with Renault’s Daniel Ricciardo predicting a strong weekend for the French outfit after the RS20 showed impressive pace around Spa. Touted to be an extremely fast car on straights, Monza should be perfect for Ricciardo and Esteban Ocon to show the RS20’s pace. McLaren, after having a few lacklustre weekends, will be looking to turn the tides at Monza as well. Racing Point will, obviously, try to frustrate the other two teams’ expectations, in what promises to be another intense battle in the midfield.
The traffic problems at Monza persisted, with everyone trying to get the best tow into their flying laps.
Lando Norris commented about how the FIA should do something about the dangerously slow speeds cars queued up to start their laps, and Lance Stroll was not particularly happy with the traffic through Turn 6. But the tow’s powerful effect cannot be denied, so teams are always looking for some help. Leclerc was clearly worried about getting a tow whenever possible, as the Ferrari could certainly use some help.
Gasly appears to have maintained his strong form from Belgium, setting some rapid times in the AT01 before having a slight off into the gravel at T5. But with the engine running and the car pointing the right way, he was able to get rolling without too much damage and set a very respectable time, good enough for 6th place, while his teammate’s apparent resurgence continues, with Daniil Kvyat finishing the session with the 4th best time, between both Red Bulls.
—-

Free Practice 2

The second session also got off to a slow start. After about 15 minutes, teams started to head out. Some minor incidents included Romain Grosjean locking up at Turn 1 and Leclerc having his time deleted for track limits at the Parabolica.
With more cars out on track, teams looked for ways to test out the slipstream. The midfield teams were especially eager to attempt to use a tow, as a properly executed manoeuvre can lead to a gain of half a second or more on a fast lap.
The session then went into a short lull where nobody was out on track for a few minutes. Around the 60-minute mark, the session went into a higher gear, with all 20 cars on track. 15 of those 20 cars got caught in a giant traffic jam towards to the Parabolica.
Ricciardo, after posting a strong session for Renault in the morning session, was on his way to a similar result, but had his time deleted for track limits at the Parabolica, with Vettel and Albon suffering the same fate later in the session.
After qualifying simulations were done, most teams did longer runs on more durable tire compounds, with Hamilton going 0.2 second faster than his teammate while fellow Briton Norris had a PU issue, and was forced to go back into the pits. He would make amends, though, finishing the session with the third best time, less than half a second ahead of Gasly’s AlphaTauri.
Over at Ferrari, Vettel’s woes were not done for the day. Coming into Lesmos, the SF1000 twitched sending him on a spin, and rolling in reverse into the Tecpro barriers, a severely flat spotted set of tires being the worst consequence. Leclerc had a small outing into the gravel at the same spot, grumbling “[t]his is such a difficult car to drive”.
Down at the Alpha Tauri garage, it was raining purple for Daniil Kvyat, why Gasly maintained his strong form through the session until the end, when something broke in his AT01, the French driver complaining of a springy rear end and slowly limping back to the pits.

Predictions:

u/DeathPig: Mercedes seem set to be on pole, even if they mess up the tow. The W11 is that powerful. However, we might see a toss up of the qualifying order with the teams thinking about which engine mode to use for qualifying as well as the race. I predict Mercedes, Red Bull, Racing Point to be in the top 6, with Ferrari, McLaren, and Alpha Tauri making up the rear of this train. As for the race, it should be a HAM BOT VER podium followed by Checo, who would have been pursued yet not passed by Alexander Albon. Ricciardo will move into sixth, Leclerc into seventh, and Stroll eighth. Personally, I’m not betting on Gasly after his problems today, but time will tell.
u/UnmeshDatta26: Toto Wolff has talked about how he thinks the party mode ban wouldn’t affect the team, so I expect the two Mercedes cars to be on top, along with their 2019 car painted in pink for Racing Point. That said, Red Bull are my pick for second best come qualifying. Alpha Tauri are sure to challenge for a top 10 spot following the great showing at Spa last weekend, although Kvyat has been some distance away from his teammate. McLaren should be close with Renault in the fight for the top 10, and as much as my Ferrari heart bleeds, I expect the Prancing Horse to be outside of the points. Leclerc could spring a surprise, but I don’t expect anything special. For Qualifying, I expect the two Mercedes drivers to share the front row along with the Racing Point duo, with a faint chance of the Red Bull duo breaking up the hegemony.
u/showstopperNL: I’ll stay away from the usual predictions, because I think we all know the score at front, but in the midfield and further back I’m really expecting some fireworks. Renault seemed really quick. It didn’t show in the end, but Ricciardo’s deleted lap time was 2nd fastest. With last weekend’s performance in mind I'm expecting big things. Certainly a top 6 in qualifying, maybe even out qualifying Max Verstappen. Renault will battle along with Racing Point and Mclaren for the top 6 on Sunday. AlphaTauri looked good, but I think when push comes to shove, they lack the ultimate one lap pace to really compete. Although I’m happy to be proven wrong. I have a soft spot for Gasly. The way he was treated by both Red Bull and the media seemed really unfair to me. I think Russell can make it out of Q1 again. He certainly seems to understand how to get the most out of his car. I don’t expect much from all Ferrari-powered cars. Both Ferrari drivers are very unhappy with the car, as showcased by their offs in FP2.
Editor's Note: Sorry for the delay, but the editor was called to help put out a small bushfire and things took a little longer than expected.
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Mindset & Expectation in sports betting

Sharing another lesson here with the hopes some readers can gain something from it. I also want to take a second to explain my intentions with posting these lessons and story’s. I don’t and will never claim to know everything and I don’t even consider myself “sharp”, some others might but I don’t because I know real sharps.
The reason I started posting here is because I’m sickened by the sports betting industry and it’s cannibalistic nature, with all the pick selling touts, scammers and wannabes. There is a ton of educational sports betting information for beginners and recreational bettors out there but most of it is bullshit or there are strings attached. A lot of dream selling and unrealistic promises. I just want to help new bettors navigate the world of sports betting and avoid some of the mistakes I made, I’m still learning new things everyday and I’ve been involved in sports betting for over 15yrs on both sides of the counter. It’s unfortunate there are people that prey on the new bettors but there is also a lack of helping each other because most successful bettors protect their edge and don’t want to give away any of their gems and look down on inexperienced bettors and the few people that attempt to help. I can’t promise anyone that they will win money listening to me but I truly believe you will be better prepared and lose less if you put in the effort and invest in yourself to improve your overall sports betting IQ.

Lesson: Mindset & Loss Aversion

Treat it like a business and it can pay like one. Obviously the act of sports betting is easy but being a profitable sports bettor is extremely difficult over the long term. One of the biggest differences (of the many) between successful bettors and recreational sports bettors is Discipline, discipline is what separates a lot of bad and good sports bettors.
When placing a wager, think of it as buying or selling the sports books offer and don’t ever settle for any number. If you miss a number, move on. Sports betting is a marathon not a sprint and bad beats will happen and they will happen on good bets but as long as you keep making the right decisions repeatedly and getting the best possible price it will give you a chance long term. Making bets that you may not think will win but the price is right is one of the hardest things to overcome and a bridge any successful gambler has to cross. It sounds crazy but good bets can lose and bad bets can win but being on the correct side is all that matters. Learning how to lose is another stepping stone in sports betting, being even keeled after a losing bet and not crying about it, losing leads to more losing if you let it overcome you. Having a short memory is needed, this will help the temptations of chasing. After a losing wager it’s easy to blame players, umps or any act of god but rather then do that look at what you could’ve done differently in your research or was there anything that could’ve got you off that play. This again is very tough to do, especially when you can make good bets but still lose. (I discuss this more in the closing line value lesson from 2 weeks ago.)
Having the right Expectations is also very important, this will keep your emotions in check, knowing that winning 57% long term is great and that 70% is all but impossible long term in major markets.
Loss Aversion
Depending on how you answer the following question will tell if you are more Loss Averse or not. Would you rather be the person to find $5 on the ground or not be the person to lose $5 on the ground?
Humans/Athletes hate losing so much that they actually perform better in situations where they are attempting to avoid defeat rather than simply trying to win. The psychology behind the theory is referred to as “loss aversion” and it draws from the simple fact that humans hate to have things taken away from them. Loss aversion is a theory of humans performing better when they are losing or facing a losing scenario.
The best real-world example comes from the PGA Tour study by two guys named Pope and Schweitzer. With 250 workers hired by the PGA tour and lasers on each putting green they studied over 2 million putts from the same distance. Pope and Schweitzer used data from 239 tournaments concentrating on 2.5 million putts attempted by 421 professional golfers who each made at least 1,000 putts. The focus was on the issue of loss aversion, the researchers examined the putts in the context of the par set for each hole. According to the researchers, the par number creates a reference point that clearly distinguishes a loss from a gain. On their scorecards, golfers circle holes they score under par. If they shoot over par, the score is framed in a dreaded square, which symbolizes a loss
Most putts in the data study were for par (47%) or birdie (39.8%). The approach to each hole taken by golfers, relative to par, provides a way to measure loss aversion. Pope and Schweitzer used the PGA data to determine whether a golfer was playing it safe by making a putt that would end up just in front of the hole. “This finding is consistent with loss aversion; players invest more focus when putting for par to avoid encoding a loss,” the researchers write. Schweitzer notes that the behavior reflects the bias toward avoiding loss, in this case, missing par and scoring a bogey — over the potential to score more in the overall tournament, which is what ultimately matters. “Loss aversion is the systematic mistake of segregating gains and losses, evaluating decisions in isolation rather than in the aggregate and over-weighting losses relative to gains,” he says. Now think of that in terms of sports betting and how helpful that thought process would be, we want to think in the aggregate or grand total, not in isolated decisions.
In football a great example is when we see a team is winning, they tend to revert to a prevent defense rather than sticking with what worked for them to get the lead in the first place. Research has shown that an aggressive offensive is much more important to success than having an effective conservative offense, duh.
Being aware of this as a bettor but also how it affects the players on the field is helpful. The reality is that most casual bettors will be a lot more careful with their wager selections when they have a smaller amount of money since they don’t want to lose it. Meanwhile, those same players might tend to take more risks when they have a good amount of money since they feel like they can spare some should they lose. They will often think of it as “house money” and bet carelessly. Loss aversion is a simple concept and it’s good for bettors to be aware of its existence at all times, when up or down.
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I Read It So You Don't Have To: Secrets of the Southern Belle (by Phaedra Parks)

I hope the past few days have been restful and rejuvenating for you all, but -- as I'm sure you must have learned by this point -- the journey to personal betterment is an eternal endeavor. We haven't got a moment to waste, so let's bid adieu to the sunny serenity of the California coast and settle in down South with Real Housewives of Atlanta's Phaedra Parks, as she descends from her ivory porch swing and illuminates the esoteric in Secrets of the Southern Belle: How to Be Nice, Work Hard, Look Pretty, Have Fun, and Never Have an Off Moment.
True to the title's descriptive and straightforward sentiments, Phaedra begins the book with a concise synthesis of the worldview she hopes to present:
I believe every woman should be a Southern Belle or minimally aspire to being more ladylike, charming, and intelligent, because we should all be treated well.
As she continues, we get our first glimpse of the deep well of compassion that underlies Phaedra's mission to improve the lives of those around her.
Honestly, I sometimes feel sorry for women of northern persuasion. There they are rushing around in their baggy, drab clothes, doing everything for themselves and looking like they just rolled out of bed. They don't seem to understand there's a better way.
Thankfully, I no longer have to count myself among that witless horde. I feel like, until this fateful moment, I have been living like one of those people from the black-and-white "before" footage of an infomercial -- haphazardly bumbling through the most menial of daily tasks with no way of knowing how much brighter my world could be. Phaedra has freed me from Plato's Cave, and I have no choice but to follow her instruction and strive to shape myself in her image.
A true Southern Belle is known -- first and foremost -- for her fundamental kindness and compassion towards others, so it is only appropriate that the book's first section is succinctly titled, "Be Nice." However, even this simple directive has been trampled by the corrupting influence of the modern world. As Phaedra laments,
Unfortunately, as we see more migration from other parts of the world, we also see an increase of poor manners and rude behavior.
She elaborates, providing specific examples of the personal injuries incurred as a result of these unmannered interlopers.
I find it particularly odd in business, when the salespeople or tellers don't speak or thank you for your patronage. Don't they realize that without customers they would not have a job?
I, too, find it offensive when minimum-wage workers have the nerve to act like actual human beings rather than automatons at the mercy of my personal whims, and I appreciate that Phaedra is bold enough to ask the question that has undoubtedly been on the tip of our collective tongue. Yet somehow, she still remains humble enough to freely admit where she has room to learn; here, she lets the reader in on "something I've never quite understood about non-southerners:"
They're suspicious of basic southern warmth because they're worried it's insincere. But at the same time, they will tell you the most inappropriate things! They tell you stuff about their health that you don't want to know. They launch into crazy stories about their terrible childhoods and how misunderstood they are. They complain about what happened long ago, and they fret openly about the future. Then they tell you what they paid for things and you want to crawl under the table.
Frankly, that's not very attractive.
What is attractive, then, you may ask? Effusive compliments, for one thing -- "I don't know why some people are so concerned with being sincere, when being nice is so much more effective." We also learn to "never contradict anyone, even if you know they are wrong." Phaedra illustrates this particular lesson with the following example:
If someone tells you that your taxes are due on April 30 instead of April 15, you look puzzled and say, "Goodness, I had no idea. Did they change the date?"
And what happens after that? Either the person says yes and you're forced to play along with whatever bizarre delusion and/or power-play your companion is currently indulging, or they say no and you say -- what? "Right, of course, I knew that the whole time!" Or, "Gotcha! It's April 15th, you incompetent fraud!" Or maybe, "I don't even know what taxes are -- money is for menfolk!" I just can't imagine any of those scenarios playing out with less discomfort than a simple correction, but after four years living in New England, I can only assume that's just northern negativity clouding my vision.
We are next presented with a list of "compliments that come in handy," a few of which I've transcribed below for immediate incorporation into your own phrasal repertoire.
What an interesting way to think about it. (Good for a point on which you disagree with someone.)
​
You thought of every little detail; I love a meticulous lady!
​
Wow! That is so original. I would never have put it together like that. (In this South this might mean, "I hate it," but in a polite way.)
Boss Babe is out -- Meticulous Lady is in! Phaedra reminds us to keep health concerns -- "especially female issues" -- far from polite conversation, then shifts gears to a much-needed lesson in verbal comportment. It's not just their "attractive regional accents" that distinguish Southern Belles from their less-attractive northern counterparts; they also devote great attention to evoking grace through their cadence and tone.
Sometimes northern women can sound awfully abrupt. It's just a habit they have, poor things.
If you'd like to take your place amongst esteemed gentility, however, I urge you to change your ways! For one thing, when speaking, "slip in something affectionate so that a very harsh reality doesn't come across as rude or abrupt." For example, see how much unpleasant confrontation is avoided with the following turn of phrase:
Darling, don't you know you're too smart and pretty to be the town drunk?
Silly girl, haven't you heard? Addiction is for ugly people! You should also feel free to use these compliments liberally throughout conversation -- "You don't have to mean it, you know." As an example:
If you can tell that someone has put a lot of effort into a particular aspect of her outfit, just draw attention to it. Sparkly stars-and-stripes high heels could be terribly tacky, but you bet they're supposed to be noticed, so go ahead and do it. "Those are certainly patriotic shoes!"
Let me take a crack at it -- This book certainly has a lot of words in it! Writing a book is such an impressive achievement -- I'm sure it feels so rewarding to finally see it In print! And I love the way you occasionally use infinity signs as bullet points -- it's so evocative! I think I'm getting the hang of this!
"Another southern difference?" As Phaedra informs us, "we try not to make direct requests. It just sounds so forward and frankly unpleasant if someone comes right out and says what they want from you." Phaedra's Starbucks barista must really despise her -- If it isn't too much trouble, could I bother you for something to drink? No, anything's fine -- I wouldn't want to impose.
Almost like a modern-day Rosetta Stone, the next passage introduces us to the nuanced connotations that pervade a true Belle's vocabulary. For example, Phaedra tells the reader that "if I tell someone 'Goodness, you must have spent all day on your hair. I am so impressed!' it really means I hate it." Before I manage to convey how impressed I am by the book before me, I read on to learn that "when you're discussing a homely girl, you generally say, 'She's so smart!' The general thought is you can't be both ugly and dumb. God wouldn't be that cruel." Please excuse me while I take a few hours to re-analyze every compliment I've ever been given in my entire life.
Now that that's done, here are a few more translations to help you decipher the Belles in your life.
Belle-Speak: She's a nurse-in-training.
Unvarnished Truth: She dates only old men.
​
Belle-Speak: She's a butter face.
Unvarnished Truth: Everything looks good but her face.
​
Belle-Speak: Hope he's got money.
Unvarnished Truth: He's unattractive and pays for affection.
The second one is not even really a euphemism so much as Phaedra trying to demonstrate her knowledge of hip modern slang, but I digress. We transition into advice for conversation starters -- "don't throw them complicated or controversial subjects like politics, animal rights, or local zoning." Truly, I can't tell you how many times I've been approached at a party with an opener about municipal ordinances, and it just kills the mood like nothing else. Worried about how you'll ever find something to talk about under these restrictions?
Don't worry about sounding interesting. "Interesting" is an overrated notion. Just fill the empty air.
That…explains a lot, actually.
Our next lesson is in reference to dinner parties -- "don't make a fuss, unless you're complimenting the cook." In case you're confused as to how this guidance should be interpreted, Phaedra clarifies with some examples -- "'Is there meat in here? I'm a vegetarian' is the wrong kind of fuss." Since I typically ask this question while flailing my arms wildly and making intermittent whooping noises, I completely understand how it could be disruptive amongst refined company. Although I'm starting to get a bit nervous that I won't be able to keep track of these seemingly countless rules, Phaedra's next assurance puts my mind at ease: "If all else fails, remember the secret weapon of the Southern Belle is delicate helplessness."
In the next passage, we learn that, "if there's any characteristic that defines a Southern Belle, it's her habit of firing off little notes on any occasion." Just as with verbal compliments, these notes require little to no basis in factual reality -- "obviously it's perfectly all right to exaggerate." But while truthfulness is more or less dispensable, your choice of writing implement could have grave repercussions. As Phaedra exhorts, "Never, ever write a letter in pencil. You might as well not bother at all." Within the realm of pens, however, "blue and black are perfectly acceptable, even if they do lack panache."
We return once again to the topic of appropriate subjects for conversation, and are cautioned against asking anyone their age. Of course, wild speculation is encouraged, "as long as you're out of earshot." In the next tip, Phaedra declares: "Don't discuss the cost of anything. Any discussion of cost is just in poor taste." I just can't help picture how much of a nightmare this woman must be at a fast-food drive-through. Our final instruction?
Don't discuss hair color. Men always pretend they don't dye their hair, so you just have to go with it.
At first glance, this seems reasonable enough, especially in the context of the social graces espoused by the book so far. However, Phaedra's attempt at further explanation quickly begins to careen off-course.
For women, it's a little bit more complicated because you have the question of whether the drapes match the carpet, so to speak. And I do know some who dye the carpet to match -- that was the big thing in high school. Now with all this weird waxing, you don't have to do as much dyeing, but that's another thing you don't talk about either!
Let's see if I've got this straight: I should always believe a man about his purported hair color no matter what, but if a woman tries to lie about hers, she'll get caught…because I will inevitably be forced to confront the realities of her pubic hair? An intimate partner, sure, but I just can't imagine this situation arises with enough frequency to merit even the few lines its given in this text. And honestly, at this point, I don't even think I want to know what Phaedra means by "weird waxing."
This section of the book concludes with a final catalog of "the 'She did what?' mistakes." The list starts off strong with "wearing white to another woman's wedding." However, by the time we end on the most unimaginable of atrocities -- "drinking beer from a bottle" -- I'm beginning to wonder if this list was actually supposed to have been titled "things the sexy homewrecker does in a bro-country music video."
The following section is titled, "Work Hard," and I am immediately inspired to do exactly so by the implicit challenge thrown down in Phaedra's opening lines, in which she coquettishly asks, "Who always delivers a presentation on time, with the printed materials perfectly written and proofread?" I'm usually quite good at taming my most pedantic impulses, but contrarian passions I never knew I had are foaming at the mouth to find an upcoming typo and self-righteously call her bluff. Although perhaps I should find a more feminine way to phrase that; as Phaedra cautions, "we don't like to think of ourselves as driven, because that sounds so neurotic and unpleasant."
We next learn that "you cannot be a Southern Belle unless you understand what it is to be ladylike." But unfortunately, it is all too easy to be caught up in the ways of the world and lose sight of this primary calling.
A lot of women today enjoy being the feisty, brassy, foul-mouthed kind of gal who drinks with men and shows a lot of flesh. They think it's cool.
Phaedra continues and reflects that, "I've heard the argument that this is progress, from the feminist point of view, but I don't necessarily agree." I can never remember -- which wave of feminism was the one with all the feisty gals? But clearly, their agenda has gone too far! How, in contrast, does a delicate Southern Belle behave?
She looks as if she's heard of sex, probably has had sex, but has no plans to have sex with anybody in the immediate surroundings.
I'm not sure exactly how to convey this highly specific sentiment in any other way than purchasing a t-shirt custom-printed with the phrase, "I have heard of sex, have probably had sex, but have no plans to have sex with anybody in the immediate surroundings," so I hope that approach will suffice for now. Phaedra follows up by cautioning us that,
A lady never puts in the shop window what isn't for sale.
Personally, I like to think of myself as more of a museum than a gift shop, but to each their own! We next learn more about the delicate balance a Southern Belle must achieve in order to maintain her esteemed position. For example, while "she doesn't cuss and doesn't talk dirty," frigidity is similarly unbecoming -- "if somebody tells a good dirty joke in her vicinity, she'll laugh." I'm barely a third of the way through this book, and I'm already exhausted at the prospect of having to remember all of these hyper-specific edicts. It's no surprise that the Southern Belle has to remain consistently vigilant; as Phaedra intones, "coming from a Pentecostal family, I hate to see a woman down more than two drinks." It seems to me like the simplest way to avoid such emotional turmoil would be to simply refrain from compulsively tallying the beverage intake of strangers, but I soon learn there are far more perilous hazards lurking around every corner. Phaedra shares her personal strategy for avoiding the very implication of incivility in the following excerpt:
I don't ever go to the bar at a party; I think that just looks terrible. If I must have a glass of wine or crave a fruity adult libation, I'll ask a nearby man to procure it for me.
Sir! Procure me a fruity adult libation -- tout de suite! But I would hate to diminish the male gender by implying that they're only good for the acquisition of potables; no -- men can be leveraged in an increasingly broad array of day-to-day tasks. As Phaedra shares:
I have friends who have never in their lives pumped gas for their own cars. They will ask a complete stranger to do it for them. One of my besties from New Orleans will flag down a man, give him her credit card, and have him pump and pay for her gas.
Honestly, I can't help but wonder if this might actually be some kind of avantgarde performance art, in the tradition of Marina Abramović's Rhythm 0. Because the idea that this gambit has never gone horribly, horribly awry truly strains credulity. As I read on, however, I learn that my current train of thinking is sorely misguided.
Sometimes when I'm at a grocery store the fellow bagging the groceries will ask if he can take them out to my car. Why would you say no to this? But sometimes women do. And I look at them and sigh and think, "Poor thing. She has a lot to learn."
Thankfully for my personal development, the next chapter — titled "A Crash Course in Being (Selectively) Helpless" — promises exactly the sort of content that I so desperately need to understand. As Phaedra explains, a Southern Belle is "never intimidating, because some things she just can't do on her own." She goes on to offer concrete examples of how to incorporate this ethos into your life on beginner, intermediate, and expert levels.
Experts: assume help will arrive. Flat tire? Pull over to the curb, and don't sweat it. Can't figure out which wrench to buy at Home Depot? Or how to program your DVR? This is what former boyfriends and other gentlemen are for. Believe me, the age of chivalry is not dead.
Rent due? Don't sweat it -- a gallant gentleman likely already has a check in the mail. House burning to the ground around you? You should know a Belle doesn't walk down the hallway on her own two feet! Bear attack? I'm sure a male bear is just around the corner, ready to jump in and defend your honor!
Without a hint of irony, we transition to Phaedra's advice for the workplace. We learn that the quintessential gentlewoman is savvy, competent, and always at the top of her game. For instance, at her workplace, "she figures out how to work the coffee machine and the copy machine." With that kind of go-getting attitude, the Southern Belle will be bound for the C-suite in no time! Provided, of course,
She never does that thing I hear of in the North sometimes of telling you how little she paid for something. Why would you brag about bargains?
I can't hear the phrase that thing I hear of in the North in anything other than the voice of Tinsley's mother, Dale. Except she would probably use it in reference to something like "giving compliments to your daughter" or "weight gain." Regardless, a more appropriate question at this juncture might be, "Are you sure this book was proofread quite as judiciously as you claimed?" As I scan the page, my eyes happen upon the line:
10 percent for tithing, if your religion encourages tithing, which mines [sic] does.
Of course, it would be entirely uncouth for me to brag about my typographical superiority in this context, so now seems as good a time as any to exercise some of my newly acquired techniques. Oh, Phaedra -- bless her heart! I suppose we can't all be detail-oriented, can we? It must be nice to be so casual and carefree when you express yourself!
Without further ado, however, we move along to our next lesson -- "People don't know when you're hungry, because they can't hear your stomach growling, but they definitely know when you're homeless." To be honest, the more I think about this statement , the less sense it makes to me (people…can hear your stomach growling?). Luckily, with the jam-packed schedule of a Southern Belle, I simply don't have time to dwell on the issue for a moment longer!
Our next tutorial? "If you have one fabulous pair of shoes, you will wear them to church. It is the very least you can do for Jesus." As we all know, Jesus appreciates sweet kicks, so he loves nothing more than to see you rock the newest styles when you drop by on Sunday. And besides -- the higher the heel, the closer to heaven! Phaedra summarizes the Southern Belle's can-do attitude with the line: "We all may not be sitting around big ugly Formica boardroom tables, but we get things done." As someone who has only ever attended meetings held around moderately sized tables, I find this to be a validating sentiment.
When it comes to extracurricular pursuits, "beauty pageants are important." However, "as much as she loves performing, the Belle will not take to the stage: some of those theater people are just too peculiar, bless their hearts." Honestly, Phaedra and I come down on the same side on this one. But I will have to heartily disagree with her next passage -- with respect to traditions of stepping within Black Greek Life -- in which she states,
The traditionally white organizations don't have anything comparable.
Um, excuse me? Have you never seen this iconic video?! However, Phaedra does reassure us that she's far from ignorant in the ways of the world. As she states, "I have read about hookup culture and known a few easy women." Of course, easy men don't exist -- or at least, that's what I've read in all the most prominent textbooks regarding hookup culture. But don't mistake Phaedra's awareness for acceptance -- "that doesn't mean I like any of it." However, this sentiment is belied just a few paragraphs later, when our author recalls:
I offended the mother of one of my best friends once by booking some exotic entertainment at this friend's birthday party. My friend loved the anatomically exceptional dancer, but her mother was livid.
I'm sure that it was only your friend who loved the "anatomically exceptional" dancer, and I assume this must have been one of your aforementioned token "easy" friends, besides. A Southern Belle, in contrast, is interested in serious, long-term relationships. And for this purpose, "it would be much better to marry a young man that you can train. I have always said that I would rather be a babysitter than a geriatric nurse." Yet even these kinds of discrepancies seem trivial in comparison to the boundless passions of eternal love. As Phaedra shares,
I want Apollo and me to celebrate our fiftieth anniversary, so I try to overlook momentary annoyances.
That aged well. Bless her heart.
We're soon treated to a cheeky list of "what her husband doesn't know," which echoes several key themes from earlier in the book -- most notably in its bizarre fixation with pubic grooming.
He doesn't know what her true hair color is, because the curtains always match the carpet.
​
He doesn't know how often she waxes, or exactly what waxing entails.
​
He doesn't know that she has her own credit card, her own savings account, and a safe-deposit box.
I've got to say, that last one hits just a little bit different with hindsight. Always timely, however, are Phaedra's views on the importance of the homemaking arts. In this evocative passage, she describes the primal horror of an encounter with a woman tainted by an unimaginable curse:
A nice lady from another part of the country recently confessed to me that she doesn't know how to do any crafts. In fact, she said, she gets all nervous and antsy in crafts stores, because they're so full of things she doesn't understand. I laughed like I thought she was joking, but really, I felt bad for her. Imagine not knowing how to make all those cute objects that brighten up lives in the South! I shudder to think what the inside of her house looks like!
With that fable still ringing in my ears, we transition to the next section of the book: "Look Pretty." Phaedra reflects, "I am always shocked when I leave the South and encounter the enormous number of women who don't seem to understand how their clothes should fit." Now feels like an appropriate time to draw attention to the book's back cover, in which an open-mouthed Phaedra swivels her torso in such a way as to create a bulging protuberance across one half of her chest. In awe of her commitment to inclusivity, I now realize this could only have been an intentional choice to make herself seem more approachable to us northern oafs, and for that I am eternally grateful.
Phaedra goes on to inform us that, "personally, I prefer skirts and dresses over pants." However, although "high-waisted pants and pants with visible hem cuffs are quite elegant and ladylike," one should take care never to forget that "minimalism and menswear looks are just puzzling and not appealing to a Belle." I, too, must admit that I find menswear looks puzzling -- a girl? in boy clothes? I just can't make heads or tails of it! And this is far from the only contemporary fad that baffles the true Southern Belle. As Phaedra continues:
I've never understood the appeal of the natural look. It's so easy to improve your appearance; why wouldn't you take advantage of the many beauty aids available to you?
In a frankly unexpected dig against the ceramic arts, Phaedra notes that "unless you are a professional potter (and I don't think Southern Belles generally are), your nails need to be clean and filed." More generally, your physical proportions should remain mild and inobtrusive:
Ever since voluminous behinds became fashionable, I often see these lumpy, huge derrieres on women with legs as thin as a chicken's, and I think God would never put a rump roast on toothpicks, so why did you do that?
That's why I always caution my friends to pair their butt implants with a battery of leg implants, in order to really round out the overall contour of the body and mimic that structurally stable, God-given look. After all, as Phaedra quips: "'Knowledge is power' -- that's my motto." But this knowledge doesn’t come without a price; being as world-wise as Phaedra often requires direct confrontation with the atrocities of today's world. As she recounts, for example: "I was astonished to find out that not every woman possesses a lint roller." It's truly a tragedy to learn how the other half lives!
We are next informed that, "you have to have your ears pierced, but only one hole in each ear." The consequences for an infraction of this critical edict are left unvoiced, from which I can only assume that they are swift and merciless. Any self-respecting Southern Belle has a taste for the finer things in life, and Phaedra is no exception. As she remarks:
I love diamonds; I'd have a diamond duvet if I could afford it.
Because I am less fiscally endowed, I have had to settle for stuffing my duvet with assorted Swarovski crystals, at least for the time being. However, I'm eager to upgrade -- I can only imagine that the extra hardness of the diamonds will add a satisfying acupuncture affect to my nighttime regimen!
Phaedra moves on to fashion advice, and cautions the well-heeled Belle to remain conservative in her fashion choices. But don't worry -- there is a time and a place to let loose and express your more artistic side. Or, as Phaedra says, "something a little funky or ethnic may even be appropriate from time to time." To further illustrate this principle, she explains: "If I were going out West, for example, I might wear some turquoise bracelets."
But some things are a bridge too far! Any woman with a modicum of dignity would know never to be caught dead in "polar fleece," "a naughty-nurse costume," or "footed pajamas." We are also encouraged to carry around a hand fan -- "the elegant way to stay cool" -- as well as a "small leather-bound notebook for jotting down inspirations." I lose my train of thought for a moment, caught up in a daydream about the ingenious wonderings that must be contained within Phaedra's hallowed journal. But I'm brought back to reality by a declaration of "what's not in my purse," beginning with the stern pronouncement: "any kind of contraband substance."
Our pilgrimage to polite society continues with a comprehensive exploration of the monogram's social gravitas. As Phaedra intones, "I've even seen cars with a very discreet monogram on the driver's door." But with light must come darkness, and the next chapter bravely confronts an issue many others would fear to face: "Looking Like a Tramp" ("There, I came right out and said it," Phaedra breathlessly gasps below the harsh text of the passage's title). She gathers herself together and courageously reports, "some women look downright sleazy."
Alas -- even more tragically -- couture catastrophes are not restricted to those of legal majority. Phaedra heroically pulls back the curtain on a nationwide epidemic of wardrobe misconduct being perpetrated against society's most vulnerable:
I saw a picture not long ago of some hippies or hipsters or whatever you call them from some remote city. The parents looked the way you'd expect them to look, a little bit bedraggled, but the worst thing was they had this adorable little baby all done up in a black onesie. And as far as I could tell, it wasn't even Halloween!
How to combat this terrifying trend? Phaedra offers words of wisdom: "Little Southern Belles always look sweet and appropriately girlish." Specifically, we are encouraged to incorporate design elements like "tasteful, conservative rickrack." By way of further explanation, she clarifies that, "what they don't do is dress like Lady Gaga in dresses made of butchers' best cuts of beef." I'm disappointed to learn that my idea for an Etsy store selling bespoke meat-based children's clothing might be a nonstarter, but I suppose I appreciate our author giving it to me straight.
Another childcare commandment?
No costumes outside the house. Of course every little girl loves to play dress-up. But I truly dislike seeing Snow White or a fairy princess trailing along behind her mother at the Piggly Wiggly.
As she sits in her living room, most likely waiting for a man to come to her aid for some reason or another, Phaedra is struck by a sharp, blazing pain. As the flash of blinding torment subsides, she catches her breath and shakes her head wearily -- another costumed child has gone into a grocery store. Forgive their guardians, for they know not the harm their actions have caused to our author's delicate and genteel sensibilities.
But it does us no good to dwell on the darker side of life! Rather, we'll move right along into the book's final section, "Have Fun." However, this does not seem to be exactly the same kind of "fun" colloquially mentioned in mainstream circles. Rather, the Southern Belle defines fun with the principle, "everybody needs to know that you made an effort." For example, "if you're pouring punch into paper cups for a gaggle of seven-year-olds, put a spring of mint in it." My previous experiences in the general vicinity of children lead me to believe that at least 75% of the seven-year-olds in this group would respond to this elegant enhancement by dumping the punch out on the ground because it has a gross plant in it. Maybe that's part of the fun?
No analysis of Southern culture would be complete without a discussion of that most hallowed of pastimes -- college football. And although "only a really unusual woman watches football alone," it is imperative that a Southern Belle attend the social events associated with the on-season. What's more, she should take care to do with impeccable style. As Phaedra laments:
Sometimes I see pictures of women in store-bought football jerseys and I feel sorry. A store-bought jersey does nothing to flatter the feminine body.
As for the game itself, minimal understanding is required -- "Naturally a Belle knows how much men enjoy telling her things, so she isn't shy about asking questions." True to her generous spirit, however, Phaedra nevertheless provides a basic primer in the rudiments of the sport:
Basically each team is trying to get the ball through the tall H-shaped goalposts at the end of the field. […] The problem is that the ball can look awfully little from pretty much anywhere in the stands. There's no shame in watching the video replay to see what really just happened.
As a final tip, Phaedra suggests that "belles whose husbands have season tickets might even invest in matching linens and china." Our next unit of instruction concerns the arrival of a newborn bundle of joy; as we learn, "the birth of a baby is a big deal in a southern family." It's so interesting to learn all of these unique cultural details! I don't know if I've ever heard of another culture that places such importance on birth -- I'd love to get an anthropologist's take! There are also strict guidelines to which one must adhere regarding the naming of a debutante-in-training:
A Southern Belle's name:
-- is obviously feminine.
-- is two syllables or more (names like Ann or Joan seem abrupt, like so many Yankees).
-- is a real name, not a geographic feature like Sierra.
-- means something. Preferably something nice.
Once born and appropriately christened, children should be painstakingly shielded from the contaminating influences of the world at large. Phaedra explains that "pop culture is full of children behaving disrespectfully." Without the slightest suggestion of self-reflection, she goes on to declare that "besides, we think TV characters are basically tacky."
Phaedra reiterates a few of the courtship commandments mentioned previously, most concisely in the adage, "Belles don't date losers." And, as any suitor worth his salt should know, "a date with a Belle is no time for a boy to experiment with 'alternative' clothes or grooming either." Instead, a Southern Gentleman takes care to keep his language clean from distasteful or offensive language -- "For instance, why say 'liquor' when you can say 'adult refreshment'?"
As we near the end of the book, it seems only fitting that we take a few pages to cover the traditions and rituals associated with life coming to a close. Buttressed by her extensive knowledge of mortuary science, Phaedra instructs us:
Postmortem is no time to experiment with cosmetics. No one wants their sweet aunt Gertrude looking like some ashy Jezebel when she meets Jesus.
The passage concludes with the brassy observation, "we don't usually cremate in the South; we figure if we wanted to burn we'd just live recklessly and go to hell."
Before the book closes in earnest, Phaedra shares a few of her special, meticulously developed recipes. The most evocative of her culinary optimizations is a recipe for sweet tea, in which she thoughtfully informs us, "sweetness can be personalized by adding more water or ice to the tea."
The book's final pages contain an instrument designed to measure the effect of the preceding 252 pages on one's essential courtesies, charmingly titled "The Belle-O-Meter Quiz." As Phaedra explains:
So, ladies, how are you doing? I'm sure you've all been very attentive to my suggestions and are amazed by the results. You're probably totally used to a steady diet of compliments and flirtation and invitations. But here's a little quiz in case you feel the need to measure how far you've come.
If you'd like to take the full quiz, you can do so here. But if your busy Belle schedule doesn't permit you to devote that much time to something so self-indulgent, a few example questions are provided below:
Your routine greeting when you meet a new person is:
a. A surly glare.
b. "Hi."
c. "Well, hello! How are you today?"
​
If your gentleman friend brought you a corsage to wear on a date you would:
a. Put it in the refrigerator. Nobody wears corsages nowadays!
b. Pin it to your coat collar and check your coat.
c. Pin it in an unusual spot like your waist or behind your ear, after extracting one little blossom to put in his lapel.
The answer key informs us that answering mostly C's means that "you are a genuine Southern Belle." As Phaedra goes on to suggest, "maybe it's time to share your new skills with a friend and pass along this book. I hope it's been helpful to you." As a book hoarder of the highest order, I will have to skip that suggestion, but I am nevertheless thankful to move one step closer to self-actualization with the help of another Real Housewife. Until next time!
Upcoming plans in comment below!
submitted by efa___ to BravoRealHousewives [link] [comments]

Psycho Betting and Stats 301-Degenalytics Question

!!!!DISCLAIMER:!!!!
Before you even start watching this for entertainment and see if you get offended by this un-P.C. content. Don't be a pussy.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Igsb3ejgbL8
If you can't handle it, leave this thread. If you can, then you may proceed to the next level.
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📰📜Story📜📰:
I've been scatter-brained, ire-filled, soul-searching and lost after a 7-day Degen Marathon that brought a shit load of misfortunes. I used to hate social media, but I've learned how to wield the soc. med. sword like a fucking Degen Jedi. I'm going to promote an honest cause where I seek to be victorious in the end. Just you watch you fucking doubters, haters, blockers, scammers. How much grit and intellect would the average fucking person have to endure what I've gone through in the last fucking 48 hours and still come out alive with a sense of greater purpose?
Had about $400 to $500 in righteously earned bonus dollars earned through impossible grinding degen mission that came pretty close to accomplishing (91%).
I would have had some imaginary >$600 BR by now, but instead the roll-over deadline caused the entire deposit to be forfeited and I manage to salvage some $100.
Due to a bonus rollover scheme, 80U of my balance was stuck in bonuses and if I fail to accomplish the roll-over by the deadline, it all gets forfeited.
With a $500-$600 balance, I could have somewhere at $900-1000 by now after a 20-2 W-L record on European football on Wednesday.
How did I get that record yesterday, by sampling a bunch of solid pre-game picks and live betting using my own fucking brain. I consult with the finest in capping. With $10-$20 bet sizes, That would have put me up maybe $15x16 = +$240 at minimum. $1000 was the imaginary bank roll. As of today, betting with $1 units, after Monday-Wednesday's successful run, while Tuesday was a -$50 blip, I converted $100 to about close to $200 (40U).
🤪🤑Psycho Betting🤑🤪:
I learned the art of psycho betting. Taking some well-advised 10U and 30U psycho bets that put my bankroll up a significant amounts, but a big loss does the opposite. Yesterday I manage to hit 4 grand 30U slams in a row, however many on juiced lines, so each $30 bet one returns about $15-20. Thus my bankroll grew nearly +100 units and sits close to $200 from the initial $100 I manage to salvage after that bonus robbery.
If you want to fucking learn the art of Psycho-Betting to the extremest and be successful at it, fucking put in $100 in Bovada (remember to use money that you can afford to lose) and get that fucking bonus for the purpose of looting the bookies in a successful vengeance scheme. This guy is a fucking Artillery: https://twitter.com/GoTimeCappers.
Fucking hit more than 4x30U grand slams yesterday and some 10-20U cherries on top. I tailed his free picks and other through consultation [Haha fucking reddit/sportsbook will probably ban me for promoting another tout, :)].Of course with my $1.5U size on a crippled bank roll, I cannot grow it to as much as I wanted to using GoTime's techniques. I would have been at another +$400 if I had $6 units. It's a high risk and high reward system, but if you are confident with your picks you go big on it. If you lose it, then you grind back with smaller 10U and 20U bets to try to get back to part to be able to do another 30U bet. The goal is to be like 2-1, 3-0 on 30U grand slams a day. There is some level of sustainability and back up plans to execute in case the 30U bet did not work out. It is very improbable for you to lose 10 in a row on well researched picks that the experts in the community have common agreement on. A lot of the times, the lines shift to reward you less for the pick since big money is already on the pick.
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!!!!!DISCLAIMER: DO NOT READ BEYOND HERE IF YOU HATE MATH OR HAVE AN IQ OF < 89!!!!!
Use the chart on: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IQ_classification
Here is a Nice Calculation to do:
📚📑💻Stats 301 Question in Degenalytics💻📑📚**:**
Lastly I asked anyone in the past few days to do a Stats 301 question with Degenalytics Context: To fucking determine the probability that an avg Joe with a $100+100 Bonus Bank-roll or $500 + 250B bank roll can actually pull off the $3000/$7500 grind in some number of N months betting with supposedly 2 full months of real sports (N-2) getting Obliterated by COVID-19. I want you to give me an analytical calculation or a simulation of your work and give me all the possible scenarios.
Then give the final verdict of if that number converges to 0.000% or 100.00% that the average Joe would succeed his false-hope mission for a successful rollover.
In other words think of it like this: If the average joe bets his entire bank roll 12 or more times (roll-over is not x10 because of bookie juice), what is the probability that he will still end up in the green? Also assign a tilt probability factor that the Average Joe would go on some emotional tilt spree to end up bust again? And make it even harder by eliminating 2-3 full months of real sports (N-2.5) and having to bet on Bovada's limited shitty ass lines and shitty live odds.
If you fucking want to eliminate the -2.5 months, then allow the average joe the freedom to bet on N months of e-sports [hahah] and see where that goes.
I had a bad experience betting on e-sports for 2 months and only end up -15-20U. I'm not saying that I lost because I suck at e-sports betting or I tailed the wrong people. The Bovada lines are super shitty and limited. Most of the time, on live esports, all you see are dashed out lines as if they fucking know what the rigged result is and prevent people from doing hedge bets or try to bet opposite spreads when they are winning to guarantee an insurance 1-1 with minimal damage incurred to their bank-roll. The live betting experience on e-sports on the Bovada platform is so bad that you are guaranteed to lose in the long run. Fucking hell Bodog/Bovada even offered me a $250 deposit on 100% bonus after the Rudy Gobert day in Mid March. They advertised the joys and wonders of getting rich betting off esports.
I was so tempted to deposit, however I kind of over-slept and missed out on the dead-line so they closed the bonus offer. Pretty good relief that I did not fuck-up my real credit card and bank account by falling for that scam again. It was an accidental Grace of God moment to fucking avoid that E-sports deposit marketing scam.
BONUS Questions:
A: Calculate the number of months needed and number of successful bets required for the conservative degen 1u bettor to grind out the roll-over playing
$2.00 tug of war with the bookie.
B: Calculate the odds that a professional capper who knows how to adjust unit sizes (1u-5u), do parlays once a while, will succeed the roll-over in some
N-2.5 months or add some e-sports to have fun to keep the N factor.
C.1: Calculate the conditional probabilities for the bettor succeeding in the mission if on the first few days of betting:
i) He loses bet 1 for about $20.
ii) Wins bet 1 for about $20 to earn $17.5.
iii) Goes on a 3 game losing streak
iv) 5 game losing streak
v) Positivity case: The guy got lucky and nearly doubled his bank roll on a decent run from day. Up +100U or $200. [I'm sure that out of bad discipline the average Joe would still go -200U in the long run with a pretty high probability.]
C.2: Determine the mathematical scheme on how the Bookies can use your first few losses to eventually put you in a 60+:40- (Greater than 60% locked in bonus, less than 40% of your deposited money). Bonus:Locked funds ratio.
The Jinx-King answer: It converges to zero [hahaha], but I really am interested in know what other scenarios math and stats people have come up. And your mathematical approaches and formulae used to generate possible scenarios and probabilities. But I think it is safe to say that for the average Joe,the answer is 0.00% success rate. Bodog/Bovada knows this exactly and refuses to put a hiatus on the roll-over deadline. Instead they keep it going so that people can try to wager on e-sports and lose their entire bank roll. They are only interested it getting 100% of your locked funds so that they can buy expensive cruises, yachts, beach mansions, resort packages, etc in Aruba or some other tropical place. Where you got millions of desperate Americans, Canadians in struggling economies with lost jobs and zero positive cash-flow. About 10% or so or perhaps even more deposit money into off-shore gambling websites hoping they can roll-over their bank-roll some ridiculous number of times and make a few bucks to put food on the table.
In fact, it makes matters worst being jobless, having zero cash flow and having locked funds in scamming bookies. If you are not good at casino or sports-betting games, you would have:
A: Lose your entire deposit for failing to grind it out properly.
B: Not grind it out on time on whatever dead-line the roll-over was.
C: Even if you did successfully grind that shit out using conservative 1u betting and play $2 tug of war with the bookie, you will end up just wasting your time grinding it out for hours and hours on end. It would have been better for you to fucking find a job at some farm helping out with harvesting crops or work in meat plants so that food does not go to waste. I bet you I can make more money than your $2 tug of war in one a day picking off cans and bottles off the streets in some exercise walking/running/biking + collection routine then selling it to the recycling center for $0.05-0.25 a unit. Trust me at my university, I spot maybe about 50-200 empty/partially driven cans and bottles left on desks, lecture halls, the floor, libraries, work areas, etc. Supposed that I harvested that shit, I would be making $5-$20 a day collecting it all and going to the recycling center once every week.
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⚖Conclusions⚖:
The fucking company knows this COVID-19 closure shit and want to use it to their advantage to continue to rob millions of their customers. Last week, I tried to call customer service, chat help, email, etc. and management has spoken to plead my case to delay the roll-over dead-line in a pro-rated time frame so that customers with locked balances can resume betting with their full balance when Game 1 of any Major League Sport actually returns. They give me the same bull-shit over and over saying they decline my request. For what reason?
  1. The terms and conditions written in fine print for accepting the bonus conversion challenge. "Rules are Rules."
  2. They were aware my deadline of June 22 at 19:23 ET was approaching soon. They knew I was on a mission to salvage my bank roll before they yank out the 60-75U trapped in bonus balances (i.e. Ghost money). By the end of it, I realize I made a foolish mistake. Most of my wins were just from bonus money and I was rewarded $0.00 on righteous wins on expired bonuses.
Therefore Bonus money only earns bonus money which put my entire bank-roll in a 80:20 ratio where the bookies control 80U in ghost money. By the end of the roll-over deadline, they get to yank out 80U of my balance at the deadline and left me with about $100 (20U) bank roll to regrind.
  1. They knew I was winning consistently making solid picks.
During my 110 hour marathon over the brutal grind of losing more than 70 hours of work, leisure and recreation; 35 hours of sleep; to a fucking impossible grind of trying to roll over some 60% of $7500 on sports I have little knowledge of capping (i.e. E-sports, Table Tennis, European football) after a few days of studying the game, I was picking up my stride to grind it to 91%. They fucking knew that if I had another day to grind, they would be coughing up +$600-800 of withdrawable balance to my account.
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Bio:😎📚🎓👨‍🎓
I am a Fucking PHD Candidate (2-6 months from graduating and not having to pay another round of BS tuition) who does a shitload of mathematics, statistics, simulations, mathematical physics, wrote scientific papers. I've won T.A. Awards, Government/Provincial/Institutional level scholarships, Conference presentations, with even Undergrad honors back in the day. DM me if you need a fucking CV to prove my fucking credentials.
Why am I able to write a lot of shit? Because my fucking brain operates on some max level Intel Xeon chip on overclock mode and I cannot do much to shut it down other than going to sleep. They only way is to write articles that I think might benefit the community.
I have a crazy interest in sports and Degen'ing. I love to fucking put action on sports games, be proud about making the correct calls on the outcome of games before it happens, and then boast to my circle of competitive friends about who's the fucking Boss. As tabboo as society think us degens are, I think this absolute BS. There is a pure enjoyment in watching sports and having action on it. It is nice to get paid beer money to cover a round for your buddies, or earn that rent money over a successful night of betting on shit you actually enjoy watching. Fuck I rather make $300 for one evening of enjoying sports rather than working a 9-5 dull job to try to afford rent/mortgage. If I can fucking pay off all my monthly expenses in 3 fucking successful nights of 3 hr sessions of sports matches, that would be ideal. I would take the lather over a 9-5 rat-race grind.
Overall I am "PRO" in the debate for local single sports betting bookies to be established in Canada. Get these fucking scamming off-shore books like bodog/Bovada who contribute only contribute "Bagel" to the Canadian Economy, but instead make it worst by scamming the masses of hard working or desperate people to leak out some sum of billions of dollars of national GDP. Probably the same applies to all American States, that people should not have to cough up their hard earned $$$$ to off-shore scamming bookies. I shall write an article about this later to justify my arguments later.
Ultimately I my goal is to obliterate or negate the influence of all the cons, scamming bookies, and false touts out there who are just interested in stealing people's $$$. To write out full studies on exposing their schemes in an objective lens.
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Calling me out: (Think I cannot track these pussy downvotes? I know you cowards 😂😜😎)
If you think I'm full of BS, then send me a personal DM to have a 1v1 argument the same way that Stephen A debates sports with Max Kellerman. You can downvote me or flame me with empty hate talk all you want on public threads. But don't be a fucky pussy by avoiding a debate with me. Trust me, I'm going to win and be the last one to state a real point that you will have no comeback for [haha]. Lastly, if you are open to discuss or debate with me about some issues, do some resarch/exploration, betting strategies, etc., I would love your collaboration in some projects I got going on.
Ultimately, I should help every honest worker strive towards Degen success or if not, just to purely enjoy putting action on sports games. If you are too full of yourself, then you are on your own, I bid thee adieu, and wish you all the best. However you will be absolutely declined to all services and counsel I work to provide to friends for free.
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Social Media📺🎬
Some extra Resource to how I got to this point in my mission.
Here it is for starters:
June 23, 2020: The Impossible Pursuit Reddit/sportsbook/Brag and Bitch (Tuesday)
June 24, 2020: Doubling Bank roll and rewarded Bagel: Reddit/sportsbook/Brag and Bitch (Wednesday)
June 24, 2020: How can you win 5 in a row and lose it all simultaneously? Reddit/sportsbook/What is your most impressive win?
Full Twiiter: https://twitter.com/jinxking0p5
All my media: https://twitter.com/jinxking0p5/media
Discord: ????? To be solved.
Challenges: Got a few right in progress now and a couple of drafts I am working on.
The Jinxking Crusade (In progress): https://twitter.com/jinxking0p5/status/1275516258822131714?s=20
Turns out many people cannot withdraw anything out of Bovada/bodog due to some website glitches. Will try to recover a bankroll to attempt a withdrawal, however I am likely to have the same issues too. They will make some lame excuse to not give me a cheque. Definitely no point of pursuing anything in bovada/bodog if they refuse to give you withdrawables. The goal is to get their website off outta here. As well as get them out of advertisements. They definitely pulled off some "Get the fucking money and run scheme" and you will likely not see your money again. GG
The Jinxking Challenge (In progress): https://twitter.com/jinxking0p5/status/1275661929940467713?s=20
Want to expose a bad tout who over prices the service and has a mediocre record? Tail and fade to call their their BS or mediocre non profiting record out. Also good for finding legitimate winners too. This will be a mission to expose shitty touts on Twitter the way Penn & Teller exposes BS in the market.
submitted by jinxking0p5 to sportsbook [link] [comments]

Losing Streaks

Losing and Losing Streaks
We have all been there, when making a bet during a losing streak you just know will lose even before the game starts. It’s tough but I want to explain how important these times are in a sports bettors life. It’s safe to say most of us in here bet weekly, so this lesson on losing applies to all of us. It might even be the most important lesson yet. I’m going to attempt to discuss facts rather than theories or superstitions in this lesson, it’s easy to think the gambling gods of the world are conspiring against you to take all your money and no amount of praying will help you get out of the funk you are in.
In my experience, a losing streak is caused by two simple factors. The first is out of your control, and that's luck, randomness, variance or whatever you want to call it. At the end of the day, sports are played between two teams who we hope are giving their maximum effort with the hopes of winning the game. At one point or another, there will be things that happen that you've never seen before and you will either profit off of it or catch an L from it. During the losing streak, these freaky things will seem to go against your bets more often than not, but it's important to remember that the game would have played out the same way regardless of if you had a bet on it or not.
The second thing a losing streak boils down to is the fundamental handicapping process. There is something that you are possibly doing between circling a game and then placing a wager on the game that is not adding up. Handicapping a game is such a delicate process that one wrong thought could lead you to the wrong side, especially when your thoughts are cloudy and the confidence is low. There are so many narratives that can be taken out of context from previews, expert analysis, bullshit tout pick sellers or anything else you read or see that might give you a hot take or an opinion on the game.
During the course of a losing streak, it's crucial that you are able to take a step back during the handicapping process and look at the game as a whole. Ask yourself plenty of questions about the two teams in question and about the line and about whatever you feel you need answered before diving into the specifics of stats and trends and injuries and travel and game plans and all of that other intricate stuff that goes into the decision-making.
The first thing I do during a bad week is I scale back my bet size until I start stringing together wins, it’s called taking your medicine. The urge to double up to get back loses has to be resisted, it’s literally the worst thing you can do after a few loses. You are more likely to go broke before winning on doubled up sized bets and then you will have no more bankroll left to even see the upswing.
Ive never met a pro bettor who said he or she has never had a losing streak. Anyone who says that they’ve never been through a losing streak is lying or hasn’t bet long enough. The one constant in sports betting -- similar to life with death and taxes -- is that losing streaks are inevitable. They happen to the worst handicappers and the best, and there is nothing that can be done to avoid them.
READ BELOW
If a gambler were to make 500 wagers on 50/50 propositions over the course of a year - the odds state that he or she should lose 10 straight bets 21 percent of the time. That means that there is better than a one-in-five chance that a player who bets on a regular basis will lose 10 games in a row over the course of 500 bets.
Let's even take it a step further. A player who makes 500 bets a year will almost certainly go through a 10-game losing streak at least once in a five-year span. Those odds are comforting in the sense that you know a losing streak is bound to happen and you can write it off as part of the process and not have those streaks shake your handicapping confidence.
Below are the odds calculated for wagers that are 50/50 propositions (a standard spread bet) and are assessed over a 500-game period.
Two-game losing streak: 100 percent Three-game: 100 percent Four-game: 100 percent Five-game: 99.97 percent Six-game: 98 percent Seven-game: 86 percent Eight-game: 62 percent Nine-game: 38 percent
Math doesn’t lie over a large sample size, no matter how good you are losing streaks are just simply part of the game. The better you are at handicapping and the more selective you are in your wagers will only make these extended losing streaks happen less frequently. Knowing there is nothing you can do to defend against these losing streaks in important to know.
Below is a link from pinnacle, they did an extensive study on the probability of losing sequences. I spared you guys from the math science behind it because that shit can be tough and boring to read but for anyone interested in really diving into the math behind losing by all means.
https://www.pinnacle.com/en/betting-articles/educational/losing-runs-in-betting/6g6jz2l7m3zk63pt
submitted by bettingnetwork to sportsbetting [link] [comments]

Down With Touts

Have seen many posts over the years asking for tout or strategy recommendations (most recent was cherrypicking from touts’ picks of the day). Finally felt compelled to speak up.
I can’t stress this enough: never pay for picks.
My bona fides: I’ve a) co-founded Google’s #1 fantasy sports book game b) have been researching sports betting syndicates for over a year now for a tv show c) worked in pro gambling (TVG/Betfair).
I can tell you there are only about 20 syndicates in the country that make money long term against the bookies. Some are former Wall Street traders, others MIT AI PHDs, others pro statisticians.
To a man, they approach it with the intellectual rigor as if they were running sports hedge funds. Anybody you see posting their picks is either in it for the internet shine (fine) or to hoodwink squares into buying a package (despise this, tarnished our growing industry).
Haralabos Voukgaris is arguably the best NBA bettor in the world and he wins only 57% of his bets. The reason it works? 52.4% is break even after the sports book takes their vigorish. After that, your win rate compounds. According to veteran gambler Steve Fezzik, if you started with $1k, only bet 10% of your bankroll, and won 60% of your bets you’d be a billionaire in 5 years. That’s why compound interest is referred to as the “8th wonder of the world.”
Now ask yourself - how many sports gambling billionaires do you see out there? The only ones I know of were the founders of online sports books, not baseball cap wearing jabroskis (me) selling picks online (not me). Don’t eat into your bankroll (all money is bankroll for your life) by paying somebody to lose (long term) for you.
TL;DR If touts really won at the rates they claim, they would be a) millionaires at very least b) ruining their winning edge by giving away/selling their picks. Bet smart and have fun!
submitted by azzabazazz to sportsbook [link] [comments]

[Rant]Where is the smallball Billy Beane of the Covid days? An ode to an era I've never seen and would like to.

What the hell, baseball? I mean that with all the love in my heart I can have for a sport, but seriously, enough already. I can't sleep, it's really damn late on the west coast, I'm going to rant a while into the void and then try to go back to sleep again. Read or don't.
I'm not a stodgy old-timer who thinks any starter who can't throw 300 innings a year come hell or high sog ain't worth a damn, but neither am I totally new to fandom. Ichiro's unique play and a magical season, capped by a harsh life lesson for a young kid about hubris coming before the fall, sparked my love of the game. It's the embodiment in sport of the less brutal half of the American ethos, and when played well it's a gem of a game. My personal involvement terminated shortly after that magical Mariners season - right around the time t-ball ended and "pitchers" started uncontrollably beaning batters with sufficient brutality and consistency as to drive my highly sensitive self towards gentler sports - but I've always loved watching baseball, and I think it's part of why I've pursued data analysis. I take y'all on this overly long background tour because the perspective is important later: relatively balanced between new and old; attached but not overly attached to any given aspect of the game; data-focused; fed up but comfortable with that and pretty resigned to it by now.
While there have been standout defensive players throughout my years of watching, they've generally been scarce and seem to be increasingly so over time. Even more rare is a team actually built around defense. The whole time I've watched - Ichiro and a few other outliers notwithstanding - the game has followed Billy Beane's trajectory towards the three true outcomes. Vizquel and Pudge were great, as are Yadi and Simmons, but I never saw the glory of Aparicio, Fox, Maz, Ozzie, Bellanger, Brooks, Keith, Boone Sr., Sundberg, Nettles, Boyer, Kubek, Rizzuto, or the rest (I'm sure I'm omitting some obvious ones).
As a data nerd, I appreciate the efficiency of taking the opposing defense out of the question as much as possible - especially when teams are built around defense, as some still (somewhat, at least) were when Beane first started building around three true outcomes players. As an economist I appreciate the efficiency of how relatively affordable such players were at the time on the trade and free agent markets, not to mention late-round draft strategy, etc. But as a fan of the game, I kinda hate watching what it has become as a result - all the more so when the HRs all land in empty rows of seats; the emptiness reminding us of our occasional inability to understand and follow the implications of data and the dire results, as well as the paradoxical duality inherent in a game that both embodies this grim deterministically, statistically constrained reality and - ideally - offers us a bit of whimsical escape from it at the same time. There should be less aspirational whimsy in real life right now as we try to grapple with cold, hard reality, and more of it in baseball where we can have fun and escape that for a minute. The whimsical escape is the ball being put in play.
As an economist again though (not known for our whimsy), I am also confused why nobody has yet flipped the Billy Beane script, especially when COVID-19 has given them the perfect excuse and reason to do so.
As will surprise nobody still with me here, I play my fair share of OOTP. I enjoy it, and it's a great way to connect with my grandfather - who also loves it, and is they guy who first said to me "hey SJI_, come watch the throw this 'Ichiriole' guy just made... I think he might be something special. Nice bunt earlier too..." back in that spring of 2001. When I play, I try to play the counter-meta as best I can. The striking thing is this, year after year: no matter how hard I make the trade difficulty, and when I try to ensure trades are legitimate real-world value exchanges for teams, when I make sure I'm not artificially inflating anything or stacking a team unrealistically, and almost no matter what team I play as, it's shockingly easy to create a perennial division powerhouse by going back to building around defense, smallball, and finesse pitching.
Now, obviously "I can do it in a video game, why can't someone do it in real life" is a ridiculously stupid thing to say, unless it's not. Why hasn't some team tried to lean really heavily into this? Sure some teams have built around defense more than others. Small-budget teams (the Rays come to mind, to an extent) build more around defense for the very economic reasons that defense/smallball is potentially analogous today to OBP/three true outcomes in Billy Beane's day. But no team (besides the Rays IF prospects in particular) really stockpiles elite defensive talent and then figures out how to add just enough run production. It's all about hitting more HRs/drawing more walks and preventing more opposing HRs/mitigating plentiful walks with Ks. If a hitter can field, ok, great, but it's not the main thing. The result of this strategy being so pervasive is that there is a heap of plus-plus to elite defensive talent consistency blocked, with no obvious strong future on their team, with seemingly little trade value, ultimately sitting in a minor league/occasional call-up or backup role. If you like seeing the ball put in play, you'll be having a couple of organizational names popping up involuntarily in your heard right now no matter who you root for.
I'm openly inviting you to rip apart the following proposal, but hear me out carefully and fully first.
Here is what I propose, as a thought experiment:
Pick a team, any team.
Move the fences way the hell back - like so far back Manfred freaks out and wakes the owner up with a frantic call, during which the owner promises to move the fences back in but after which they actually move them even farther out. Move the stadium to a seashore or mountaintop with constant, strong, heavy-with-condensation winds blowing in from CF. Fuck one of your outcomes.
Then, the GM stockpiles all the high-control finesse pitchers that you seem to be able to get for a dime a dozen on the trade and free agent markets these days. The Jamie MoyeMike Leake types. No unnecessary walks. Fuck your second outcome.
None of these pitchers rely on strikeouts, and generally pitch to weak contact and low, painted corners. Forget the fixation on the third outcome, which is mostly important when you're walking tons of guys and have to worry about fences in the same zip code as the pitcher's mound. Without easy access to walks or HRs, modern teams will be forced to consistently put the ball in play, make smart baserunning decisions, advance runners, etc. - which would be quite a fun spectacle against a smallball/defense/finesse squad.
Not only is the type of pitching you need generally cheap and readily available, building an elite(ish) defense that doubles as a passable smallball offense doesn't appear to be very expensive on the IRL trade market. Starting as the Mariners for an on-paper example (my team, you do yours! and I'm assuming here everyone pans out at least somewhat as they're projected to, I know there's no guarantees and obviously contingency plans are key):
Forget the specific names - just think about any of the available similar types of glove-first and finesse players. It seems like the DiPoto Ms could in theory get this kind of thing done, they have the player capital and ownership funding - as do most teams. Some version of this squad wouldn't be all that hard to trade fosign/build, right? It's not like I'm stacking the imagined team with something ridiculous like Bellinger, Betts, Seager (the younger), Turner, Lux, Kershaw, Buehler, etc. Could you do it for your team?
How fun would that team be to watch, even in an empty stadium? With so much more action happening on the oversized playing field, the vacant rows wouldn't be so eerily noticeable, and with that squad every game would be a blast to watch. Announcers would eat crow, as they call "that ball will FLY, FLY AWA- no, Pache with a diving catch onto the fringes of the warning track after a looooong run, my oh my what a play..." and they'd revel in the perpetual stream of double-plays. And the whimsy, desperately needed, would return just a little bit to the game. And Mike Trout would still hit the ball into the next zip code against the Mariners, because some things in life won't change even in my wildest imaginings. But, I bet they'd do surprisingly well each year, which is a change only presently available in my wildest imaginings.
I want to watch a game like that - a game which, I imagine, might make Ichiro smile just a bit more than the one we all watch today.
This is a love letter to that game - the game baseball seems like it could be, and might once have better resembled before I drew breath. And, as cheesy as it sounds, perhaps the return of that game, the return of some whimsy to our national pastime during a moment of crisis, would help the whimsy return to our lives once it passes. Put the ball in play, please.
Tl;dr: why isn't there a dedicatedly counter-meta team built around defense, smallball, finesse pitchers, deep OF fences, and actually putting the damn ball in play a bit more often so players occasionally have to interact with it in some way that can entail even a modicum of uncertainty and whimsy?
[Edits for formatting/grammar]
submitted by SJI_ to baseball [link] [comments]

Top 10 Underdog Payouts in Sports Betting History - YouTube The TRUTH About Sports Betting! Watch this before you ... Best Sports Betting South Africa - YouTube Best Sports Betting Sites 2020 - YouTube How to Win at Sports Betting! Is it even possible? - YouTube

Sports Betting Touts, Tout Services, and “Expert” Handicappers. Tout services are businesses where expert handicappers provide picks to subscribers for daily and weekly game results. A handicapper studies every major sporting event taking place over a specified period of time, finds the best picks, and offers them to their loyal customers. Top Online Sports Betting Handicappers . To search the top online sports handicappers for each sport simply query records by first selecting the sport in the sports filter and press "Filter records" after that select the time period tab that you would like to query handicapper records. The Best Bet On Sports is a sports handicapping company with 20+ years of experience analyzing, creating sports picks, and winning games. Join us now! Sports betting touts, tipsters, and pick services are all handicappers. ... Your best alternative to using a sports betting tout, tipster, and pick services is to do the handicapping yourself. Thanks to the internet, sports bettors have much more data and information available at their fingertips than ever before. Steve, Dave and Steam Capper are just a few of the thousands of touts marketing themselves as experts in the sports betting industry. And the number of them and the variety of their methods will swell in the coming few years as legal sports wagering takes hold across the U.S.

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Top 10 Underdog Payouts in Sports Betting History - YouTube

Buy Sharp Sports Betting - http://goo.gl/mJ59a Above is the link for what in my opinion is the best sports betting book. It is called "Sharp Sports Betting" ... A follow up to the video I took down talking about scams and touts on sports betting YouTube. #staylucky Research For Yourself! Sharp Sports Betting Book: https://amzn.to/2MHFd5X Deep Dive Podcast ... The official Youtube Channel of Best Sports Betting South Africa : https://www.Bestsportsbetting.co.za On this channel we'll be looking at all things sports ... If you have not watched my video "The TRUTH About Sports Betting", then I highly suggest you watch that video as a pre-requisite to this one. There are a lot... Bovada Sign Up: https://geni.us/6IQkJV Bovada Bonus Codes: https://geni.us/WTkMp Bovada Written Review: https://geni.us/xRIr3Gg Follow Us On Social: Our Webs...

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