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LPT: If you have a lot of free time at the moment, you can generate a little income on the side by doing online work like teaching english, transcription, microtasks or surveys. It's not a fortune but if you have time to spare anyway it's a good way to pay a few bills. (list of sites attached)

Here is a list of sites for online work that anyone can use:
​
Appen - Paid Projects, up to 20 hours a week. Decent pay of about $14 dollars per hour but depends on the project you can get
Lionbridge - Paid projects, great projects on offer
TeamWork - Paid projects, good site.
ClickWorker - Surveys and Writing..payments vary per task....Very good site.
Neevo - Tasks , up to $1 per task approx
Vipkid- Teach English to kids online, $15-$25 per hour or so
QKid- Same as vipkid teaching English online- I think this pays up to $20 per hour
gogokid- Teach English Online $14-25 per hour
Prolific.co - Surverys, pays very well!
Mturk - Microtasks- Pay is ok, haven't used it myself but seems fine
Rev - Transcription
TranscribeME - Transcription
GoTranscript- Transcription
Qmee- Surveys, varying payout on each one...pretty good site.
Swagbucks- Surveys, good paying.
Timebucks - Various surveys, good site.
GG2U- Surveys, good site with good payout, probably average of 1$ per survey
Serpclix - Good one for tasks/surveys...intall on your browser and it will let you know when there are some available
BrandedSurvey- Surveys
20Cogs - You complete 20 offers to get the payout, you will have to cancel a few subsciptions after some tasks but it's a good way to make about £200-£300
Panelbase.net - Surveys, Mostly they pay £1-£4
YouGov - Surveys, good site and pay is decent.
populuslive.com - Surveys, pay is decent.
Ysense - Surveys and other tasks
Prizerebel - Surveys and other tasks
Microworkers - Various tasks
HideOutTV- Watch videos and get paid
HoneyGain- You get paid for browsing the internet every month , maybe $40 or so
​
This got a very positive response when I posted a few months ago so I thought I'd put it out there again, Personally I use a combination of these sites to earn around £1000-£1500 a month. Hopefully it can be of help to more people, shoot me a message if you have any questions
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EDIT: Ok so the reason I said I use a combination of these sites is because I have used all of them at one time or another, but here is my current combination:
Appen/Lionsbridge- Most recently worked as a social media evaluator which payed $15 per hour and gave me around 10 hours per week
Clickworker- I use the UHRS section,“Universal Human Relevance System”. It’s a partner website that can be accessed over clickworker.com and where you can process additional jobs. You can earn a lot more this way
Neevo- Various tasks , up to $1 per task approx
VipKid and other english teaching sites- I also put ads on a spanish site called tusclasesparticulares offering skype classes. Here is a link to a lot of different English teaching sites you can use from different countries
GG2U- Surveys, good site with good payout, probably average of 1$ per survey
20cogs- A good way to earn £200+ in a relatively short time
Serpclix - Good one for tasks/surveys...intall on your browser and it will let you know when there are some available
Qmee- Surveys, good site
Prolific- Surveys- Can pay very well
HoneyGain- You get paid for browsing the internet every month , maybe $40 or so
These would be my go to sites, and I sporadically check for work on the others too if I have the time.
I spend 2 hours a day doing this to earn £1000 per month but it's usually higher than that. You have to earn £33 per day in order to hit the £1000 per month mark, which is very doable when you have 20 or so sites to work with.
For me at the moment it's usually a one hour class which makes me £15 and then a combination of projects from Lionsbridge (which currently pays about $15 dollars for an hour) and then a couple of random short tasks or surveys from one of the other sites, or more if I don't do a class...Takes a while to fine tune it and I'm always modifying the combination but believe me it's more than doable. As I say, you just need to hit that £33 a day, which is actually even easier to hit in dollars if you prefer to think of it that way.
​
Also, and this is only useful to people in the UK, I am currently doing "Matched Betting" because the Premier league is on now and more and more sporting fixtures are making a comeback. Match betting is where you bet on one outcome in the bookies and then bet against that outcome in the exchange, with both bets at almost the same odds.
So for example, If you bet £10 for Real Madrid to win at odds of 2.5 on the betting site, and then bet for Real Madrid not to win(i.e bet against them) on the exchange at the same odds, you are covered in all outcomes, win lose or draw.
This means you have fullfilled the requirements of the betting sites offer (for example, Bet £10 and get £40 in free bets) without actually gambling, since there is no risk of losing the £10 you bet since it's matched. You then do the exact same thing with your £40 free bets, and this is where you make the profit since you're not using £40 of your own money.
Yes It's totally legal, just a loophole in the system really, although I was very suspicious of it at first. I wrote a guide explaining how to do it, you can find it at the top of my profile if you are interested. I have made about £700-£800 per month from doing this, on top of the money from other sites, but obviously this means putting in more time!
I hope this is of some help, If you have any other questions don't hesitate to ask!
submitted by IvyRoney to LifeProTips [link] [comments]

$DKNG Makes No Sense to Me - Lots of Thoughts

DKNG has seen huge gains this week, mostly focused on Tuesday and today, Thursday. Both days saw intraday spikes on sports-world news: on Tuesday afternoon a presser with Gary Bettman was announced and on Thursday it was announced that the Premier League would return in June. Oddly, the stock did not move back down at all after Bettman’s announcement turned out to just be an expanded playoff format, and nothing about a return to the ice. The Premier League news didn’t seem to have much impact on other sports betting stocks either.
Both of these events point towards something that seems obviously clear: DraftKings’ stock is hugely overpriced, but seems to keep being driven up just by trading. I think there are cases to be made for short term bull or bear, and for long term bear. I’m already in on the long term bear case with Nov ‘20, Dec ‘20 and Jan ‘21 Puts that have all taken a beating, but debating what the profitable short term play is.
For some context, I used to trade bonds on one of the biggest desks in NY, but moved to be closer to family a while ago and run my own business. My state is not supported by DraftKings, so keep in mind when reading that I am a bit salty towards the company and their ability to sniff out VPNs. Been a long time lurker here, but this is my first post.
The company’s Q1 earnings was pretty enlightening and quite the spin job. I was shocked to see the stock rise that day after what I read to be a pretty poor outcome. Growth in marketing expenses can be written off as entering new states, but seeing no growth in net revenue despite 30% growth in gross revenue means that the company has a growth problem, in other words almost all the revenue growth was driven by giving away free bets and reducing vig. Let’s look further at revenue growth though.
I found it very interesting that the company led with “30% revenue growth” when, in fact, that was only at Old DraftKings, which makes up about 75% of New DraftKings revenue. SBTech makes up the rest and grew at only 3%, giving the public company a 23% growth rate for the quarter, not 30% - spin job.
The company also gave us an interesting insight into coronavirus’ impact on their business, maybe unintentionally. At Old DraftKings, they noted 60% growth through March 10th. If we assume each day through the quarter is equal, that means the last 21 days of the quarter would have been down 70% vs Q1 ‘19, that’s big. However, we know not all days are created equal in the world of sports, and Q1 included 5 NFL playoff days and the Super Bowl. If we assume NFL betting days are 3x a normal day and the Super Bowl is 3x a normal NFL day, you can see your way to revenue post-March 10th being down 95%. A similar look at SBTech’s drop from +19% to only +3% means revenue post-coronavirus is down at least by half.
Another interesting lens to use in looking at the company is how they pitched themselves when the merger was announced five months ago in December. On slide 22 they compare their valuation to a variety of comps, trying to show that the valuation is fair, probably trying to alleviate the fact that the valuation for DraftKings was about 4x what Paddy Power paid for FanDuel 18 months earlier. I’m going to ignore the “EV / 2021E Revenue – Growth Adjusted” multiple that they highlight, because adjusting a forward looking multiple based on your own forward looking growth projections is absolute garbage, and instead look at EV / TTM 3/31 Revenue for those same comps.
At $39 per share, DraftKings has a market cap a bit over $15 billion on TTM revenue of $451 million, giving them a revenue multiple of 33.7x. For those of you that haven’t been around the block a few times, that is outrageously high. The “High Growth Consumer Internet” category that they selected is at 8.1x and “EU Sportsbook Operators” at 3.6x. Their best comp is probably Flutter, which is Paddy Power + Fanduel + Stars, trades at 7.8x. DraftKings deserves a higher multiple than Flutter given that they are pure-play USA vs Flutter which has a lot of retail european revenue that isn’t high growth, but the two companies currently have the same market cap, despite FanDuel being a direct comp to DraftKings with more market share in the fast growing business segments. Even if you said DraftKings should trade at a 50% premium to Flutter, which is being very generous, that implies a share price of only $13.50.
I know what you’re going to say: “this is all about more states allowing sports betting.” Fine, let’s look at what would need to happen at the state-level to get DraftKings’ current valuation to be reasonable. Going back to the December investor presentation, DraftKings estimates their sports book net revenue at $2.3 billion given 25% market share and 65% of the US having online betting, with a 22% allowance for promos from Gross to Net. That let’s us back into $4.5 billion of gross revenue at 100% of the population. Let’s then give them a 30% bump on that for iGaming. Using the company’s current $15 billion valuation and the same 50% premium to Flutter’s revenue multiple above (11.7x) that means they need $1.28 billion of revenue, or $831 million more than they currently have. $831 million more revenue needed means they need 14% more of the population to legalize in the very short term. Of the big five states, CA, TX, FL, NY and PA, none are going to add any population, with PA already online, NY choosing retail-only and the other three being no where close to legalization and widely considered by researchers and lobbyists to be years away. The remaining 46 states, including DC, average 1.3% of the population each, meaning you need a windfall of states to add 14% of the population.
Don’t get started on nationally legalized sports betting, no one is even pushing for that and it is never going to happen. The SCOTUS repeal of PASPA was as much about taking away the Federal Government’s ability to make national decisions like allowing or disallowing sports betting as it was about sports betting itself. Sports betting will roll out throughout the US, but it is going to be a state-by-state slog.
Another thing to consider is what the company might do with its highly valued stock. As we saw with Tesla a few months ago, a big run up in stock price is a great time to do some financial maneuvering. I think there are two very good options for management right now. The first is obvious: follow-on equity offering. In going public via a reverse merger with a SPAC, DraftKings barely tapped the big institutional investors. A follow-on would be a great way to load up the coffers further - anyone that watched TV in 2015 knows they love to spend money on ads - at a very attractive valuation for the company. The problem with this is that new shares coming in, or the follow-on pricing poorly, could be a big drag on the current share price.
Another option might be a little less obvious, but I think could make a lot of sense for the company: Buy William Hill. William Hill currently has a market cap of about $1.5 billion. They have a huge footprint in Europe, a market that DraftKings previously tried and (largely) failed to enter, are a big threat to DraftKings’ DTC approach in the US and have the tech that powers much of the land-based casinos’ sportsbook operations in the US. DraftKings could buy them with their cheap stock, or issue new equity to raise money for the acquisition. DraftKings would add a ton of revenue, could cut lots of duplicated costs, diversify across geographies and sports to temper their seasonality, and replace WillHill’s outdated tech with their much better apps. The big downside is that the CEOs of the two companies seem to really dislike each other.
One reason that I think the stock could be up so much since the “IPO” is that there are a very small number of liquid shares. Remember that this wasn’t an IPO at all, it was a reverse merger with a SPAC, meaning that a much higher percentage of outstanding shares are currently locked up than would be in a typical IPO. That constraint on supply with big retail demand could be a huge driver in the stock gain.
Circling back to be three cases for what I think could happen: - Short term bull: Sports come back, stock (irrationally) trades up on it - Short term bear: Correction to a more realistic valuation, bulls taking gains, any of NHL, NBA, MLB announce they won’t play again in 2020, financial maneuvering by the company - Long term bear: Correction to a more realistic valuation, bulls taking gains, any of NHL, NBA, MLB announce they won’t play again in 2020, financial maneuvering by the company, Q2 or Q3 earnings disappoint/are eye opening, any blip to the NFL cash cow, NBA or NHL ‘20-’21 season delays, lockup ending in October
Just giving my two cents on how I’m looking at this and trading it, and curious to hear any other thoughts or theories on real reasons why the stock is moving and where it is going.
Last thought: for those of you that like DraftKings at this price, you should LOVE Flutter at this price.
submitted by TheGlove2ReignMan to investing [link] [comments]

What do you think of my DD on DraftKings (DKNG)?

DKNG has gained a lot the week of May 24 2020, mostly focused on May 26 (Tues) and May 28 (Thurs). Both days saw intraday spikes on sports-world news. On May 26 afternoon, a presser with Gary Bettman was announced, and on May 28, it was announced that the Premier League would return in June. Oddly, the stock did not drop at all, after Bettman’s announcement turned out to just be an expanded playoff format, and nothing about a return to the ice. The Premier League news didn’t impact other sports betting stocks either. Both events clearly imply that DKNG’ stock is hugely overpriced, but it’s being driven up just by trading. I’m not affiliated with DKNG in any way.
The company’s lousy Q1 earnings was quite the spin job, and I was shocked to see the stock rise that day! Growth in marketing expenses can be written off as entering new states, but no growth in net revenue, despite 30% growth in gross revenue, means that the company can’t actually grow. In other words, almost all revenue was grown by offering free bets and reducing vigorish. Let’s examine revenue growth further.
I was stunned that the company led with “30% revenue growth” when, in fact, that was only at Old DKNG, which constitutes 75% of New DKNG revenue. SBTech makes up the rest and grew at only 3%, giving the public company a 23% growth rate for the quarter, not the 30% spin job. DKNG might’ve unintentionally unveiled COVID19’s impact. At Old DKNG, they noted 60% growth through March 10th. If we assume that each day through the quarter is equal, that means the last 21 days of the quarter would have been down 70% vs Q1 ’19!!! This difference is hefty! But we know not all days are created equal in the world of sports, and Q1 included 5 NFL playoff days and the Super Bowl. If we assume NFL betting days are 3x a normal day and the Super Bowl is 3x a normal NFL day, revenue post-March 10th will drop 95%. Similarly, because SBTech’s dropped from +19% to only +3%, revenue post-COVID19 will drop at least by half.
Also examine how they pitched themselves when the merger was announced in Dec. 2019. On slide 22, DKNG compare their valuation to competitors’, trying to show that the valuation is fair, probably trying to counter DKNG’s valuation that was4x what Paddy Power paid for FanDuel 18 months earlier. Let’s ignore the “EV / 2021E Revenue – Growth Adjusted” multiple that they highlight, because it’s completely unreliable to adjust a forward looking multiple based on your own forward-looking growth projections. Instead look at EV / TTM 3/31 Revenue for those same comparisons.
At $39 per share, DKNG has a market cap over $15 billion on TTM revenue of $451 million. So their revenue multiple is 33.7x, which is too overvalued! The “High Growth Consumer Internet” category that they selected is at 8.1x and “EU Sportsbook Operators” at 3.6x. Their best competitor is Flutter, which is Paddy Power + Fanduel + Stars, and it trades at 7.8x. DKNG deserves a higher multiple than Flutter because DKNG is pure-play USA, and Flutter earns retail European revenue that isn’t high growth. But the two companies currently have the same market cap, despite FanDuel competing directly with DKNG with more market share in the fast growing business segments. Even if you are generous to DKNG and believe they should trade at a 50% premium to Flutter, DKNG’s share price ought be just $13.50.
No, this isn’t about more states allowing sports betting. Let’s examine what must happen at the state level to value DKNG’s current valuation reasonably. In their December investor presentation, DKNG estimates their sports book net revenue at $2.3B given 25% market share and 65% of the US having online betting, with a 22% allowance for promos from Gross to Net. Consider their $4.5 billion of gross revenue at 100% of the population. Let’s bump that by 30% bump for iGaming. DKNG’s current $15 billion valuation and the same 50% premium to Flutter’s revenue multiple above (11.7x), mean that DKNG need $1.28B of revenue, or $831M more than they currently have. $831M more revenue needed means 14% more of the population must legalize in the very short term. Of the big five states, CA, TX, FL, NY and PA, none will add any population, because PA is already online, NY chose retail-only and researchers and lobbyists don’t think the other three will legalize for another 5 years. The remaining 46 states, including DC, average 1.3% of the population each, meaning you need a windfall of states to add 14% of the population.
Forget nationally legalized sports betting, because no one is even pushing for that and it won’t happen. SCOTUS invalidated PASPA to remove the Federal Government’s ability to make national decisions like (dis)allowing sports betting. Sports betting will roll out throughout the US, but will slog state-by-state.
Now that DKNG’s stock has rocketed, DKNA’s management has two good strategies, like TSLA did when TSLA's stock price rocketed in Jan 2020.
  1. The first is obvious: follow-on equity offering. In going public via a reverse merger with a SPAC, DKNG barely tapped the big institutional investors. This follow-on can add cash to the balance sheet. If you watched TV in 2015, you know DKNG love to spend money on ads, at a very attractive valuation for the company. What’s the problem? New shares, or if the follow-on prices poorly, can lower the current share price.
  2. The less obvious option is to buy a competitor, William Hill, that has a market cap of about $1.5B. They have a huge footprint in Europe, a market that DKNG previously tried and failed to enter. Europe threatens DKNG’ DTC approach in the US, and Europe has the IT that powers much of the land-based casinos’ sportsbook operations in the US. DKNG could buy them with their cheap stock, or issue new equity to raise money for the acquisition. DKNG would add much revenue, can cut lots of duplicated costs, diversify across countries and sports to temper their seasonality, and replace William Hill’s outdated tech with DKNG’s better apps. The downside is that these two companies’ CEOs dislike each other.
What’s one reason the stock has risen so much since the “IPO”? Because DKNG has a teensy number of liquid shares. Remember this wasn’t an IPO at all, it was a reverse merger with a SPAC, so a much higher percentage of outstanding shares are currently locked up than in a typical IPO. That constraint on supply with big retail demand could boost the stock price! I’ll summarize the 3 cases for DKNG.
  1. Short term bull: Sports come back, stock (irrationally) trades up on it.
  2. Short term bear: Stock price corrects to a more realistic valuation. Bulls take gains. Any of NHL, NBA, MLB announce they won’t play again in 2020. Company decides on more financial maneuvering.
  3. Long term bear: Q2 or Q3 earnings disappoint. The NFL cash cow drops or NBA or NHL ‘20-’21 season gets delayed. Lockup ends in October 2020.
submitted by lawgrads to SecurityAnalysis [link] [comments]

Removed comments/submissions for /u/WarmMyToast

Hi WarmMyToast, you're not shadowbanned, but 53 of your most recent 200 comments/submissions were removed (either automatically or by human moderators).

Comments:

g24f9fa in BigBrother on 19 Aug 20 (-2pts):
Too many blonde women in the mix. They are known for their gossiping abilities. More brunettes would the solution.
g1tat9o in BigBrother on 17 Aug 20 (4pts):
I believe the have nots room is what agitated them and drove them crazy to be racists now that I think about it

Submissions:

iebpmi in BigBrother on 22 Aug 20 (1pts):
Are we possibly in for the showmance of DAVID/DAVONNE aka Vondav
iebnys in BigBrother on 22 Aug 20 (1pts):
I am all for an ENZO hoh
ie48xx in BigBrother on 21 Aug 20 (1pts):
Vanessa in her final hoh
idt5pe in BigBrother on 21 Aug 20 (1pts):
I hope Kaysar will be a man this week and sacrifice himself for Janelle’s safety
idr6y1 in BigBrother on 21 Aug 20 (1pts):
I didn’t know so many Big Brother HGs are ___
idgzz7 in BigBrother on 20 Aug 20 (1pts):
Big Brother 23: Influencers
ide6p1 in BigBrother on 20 Aug 20 (1pts):
Houseguest names in traditional Chinese (my language)
idbmeu in BigBrother on 20 Aug 20 (0pts):
The racial optics if the six continue to win all the HOHs
idacmn in BigBrother on 20 Aug 20 (5pts):
Cody has become assier this season
id9db3 in BigBrother on 20 Aug 20 (0pts):
Nicole A sucks
id7noh in BigBrother on 20 Aug 20 (0pts):
Dani thinking that shes Queen Bee and its getting annoying
id5t4r in BigBrother on 20 Aug 20 (1pts):
Saw Janelle in my dream
id3ppx in BigBrother on 20 Aug 20 (0pts):
This season is going to be racist again
icsedg in BigBrother on 19 Aug 20 (0pts):
A weird thing about Dani
icgffz in BigBrother on 19 Aug 20 (6pts):
Is Janelle not able to align with the youngsters bc of her age?
ic0nr9 in BigBrother on 18 Aug 20 (1pts):
How different would this season be if Rachel is in the house
ibhgdb in BigBrother on 17 Aug 20 (1pts):
Why does Cody never mention Paulie? Is he embarrassed of his brother’s legacy?
ib9elp in BigBrother on 17 Aug 20 (12pts):
Dani
ib932j in BigBrother on 17 Aug 20 (1pts):
Why does Cody never mention Paulie
iaqwmw in BigBrother on 16 Aug 20 (1pts):
Why does Cody never mention the name of Paulie?
iagzxk in BigBrother on 15 Aug 20 (0pts):
Bayleigh Haleigh and
ia7lq4 in BigBrother on 15 Aug 20 (8pts):
Who else can’t stand Daniele
i9mbwr in BigBrother on 14 Aug 20 (0pts):
Are Nicole F more close to Christmas or Dani or Cody
i9jdtf in BigBrother on 14 Aug 20 (12pts):
Julie’s goodbye message
i8lx14 in BigBrother on 12 Aug 20 (0pts):
A message to Janelle
i8a98u in BigBrother on 12 Aug 20 (1pts):
Who here are Christmas stans?
i4m4bp in BigBrother on 06 Aug 20 (0pts):
I need a torrent link now please
i1qqq8 in DarK on 01 Aug 20 (1pts):
[NO SPOILERS] the first few episodes were good but everything went downhill after Season 1 wrapped up
i1puwr in DarK on 01 Aug 20 (1pts):
[NOSPOILERS] this show is horrendous except for selected episodes of season 1
i1pod3 in DarK on 01 Aug 20 (1pts):
[SPOILERS] I liked the first few episodes then everything went downhill
i1bk8o in india on 31 Jul 20 (0pts):
Generic medication from Healing Pharma makes me sick?
i07euy in BigBrother on 29 Jul 20 (0pts):
I heard rumors that the season is re-postponed and re-cancelled because of coronavirus
i04n8q in DarK on 29 Jul 20 (1pts):
Theres not enough action in the series
hzzz91 in CBD on 29 Jul 20 (1pts):
I’ve been using hemp oil under the tongue for a few days. Today my urine looks so orange I feel dehydrated?
hzog7e in DarK on 28 Jul 20 (1pts):
A question
hzcg49 in BigBrother on 28 Jul 20 (0pts):
Yes Christmas will be on All Stars
hyvhfe in MLS on 27 Jul 20 (1pts):
Eff you TORONTO
hwy2r3 in BigBrother on 24 Jul 20 (1pts):
I wish Cody and Paul and Cody And Paulie are all on Big Brother 22
hu4fk4 in trump on 19 Jul 20 (1pts):
Why are you trumpists such pathetic scums?
htiypy in PremierLeague on 18 Jul 20 (0pts):
Blackburn-Reading 4-3 Fulham-Sheffield 5-3 QPR-Millwall 4-3
htgku3 in AskReddit on 18 Jul 20 (0pts):
Americans, why shouldnt there be a “New Constitution Party” or “21st Century Party” to remake America and abolish the obselete Amendments such as gun ownership?
ht7lrv in BigBrother on 18 Jul 20 (0pts):
Big Brother 22: Bullies vs Victims
hpfdw8 in BigBrother on 11 Jul 20 (5pts):
Is Paul or Paulie shorter
hn2g4h in stocks on 07 Jul 20 (0pts):
Evolution Gaming Stock
hn2177 in Referees on 07 Jul 20 (0pts):
F you soccer referees who like to say clear goals are offsides and abuse the VAR. do you know how many bettors’ lives are ruined because of your “human error”?
hguovb in SoccerBetting on 27 Jun 20 (0pts):
Dortmund deliberately losing to let Hoffenheim play in Europa League
hgbfxi in SoccerBetting on 26 Jun 20 (8pts):
Japanese Division 2 tips
glmpe5 in HongKong on 17 May 20 (1pts):
Best online subscription option to watch Bundesliga in Hongkong?
gllyim in survivor on 17 May 20 (1pts):
Something that I Notice
gleop5 in americanidol on 17 May 20 (0pts):
I’m not convinced
gkahxm in survivor on 15 May 20 (0pts):
Survivor Facebook group has terrible mods
I'm a bot. My home is at /CommentRemovalChecker - check if your posts have been removed! (How to use)
Help us expose and stand up to social media bias and censorship!
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What do you think of my commentary on DraftKings (DKNG)?

DKNG has gained a lot the week of May 24 2020, mostly focused on May 26 (Tues) and May 28 (Thurs). Both days saw intraday spikes on sports-world news. On May 26 afternoon, a presser with Gary Bettman was announced, and on May 28, it was announced that the Premier League would return in June. Oddly, the stock did not drop at all, after Bettman’s announcement turned out to just be an expanded playoff format, and nothing about a return to the ice. The Premier League news didn’t impact other sports betting stocks either. Both events clearly imply that DKNG’ stock is hugely overpriced, but it’s being driven up just by trading. I’m not affiliated with DKNG in any way.
The company’s lousy Q1 earnings was quite the spin job, and I was shocked to see the stock rise that day! Growth in marketing expenses can be written off as entering new states, but no growth in net revenue, despite 30% growth in gross revenue, means that the company can’t actually grow. In other words, almost all revenue was grown by offering free bets and reducing vigorish. Let’s examine revenue growth further.
I was stunned that the company led with “30% revenue growth” when, in fact, that was only at Old DKNG, which constitutes 75% of New DKNG revenue. SBTech makes up the rest and grew at only 3%, giving the public company a 23% growth rate for the quarter, not the 30% spin job. DKNG might’ve unintentionally unveiled COVID19’s impact. At Old DKNG, they noted 60% growth through March 10th. If we assume that each day through the quarter is equal, that means the last 21 days of the quarter would have been down 70% vs Q1 ’19!!! This difference is hefty! But we know not all days are created equal in the world of sports, and Q1 included 5 NFL playoff days and the Super Bowl. If we assume NFL betting days are 3x a normal day and the Super Bowl is 3x a normal NFL day, revenue post-March 10th will drop 95%. Similarly, because SBTech’s dropped from +19% to only +3%, revenue post-COVID19 will drop at least by half.
Also examine how they pitched themselves when the merger was announced in Dec. 2019. On slide 22, DKNG compare their valuation to competitors’, trying to show that the valuation is fair, probably trying to counter DKNG’s valuation that was4x what Paddy Power paid for FanDuel 18 months earlier. Let’s ignore the “EV / 2021E Revenue – Growth Adjusted” multiple that they highlight, because it’s completely unreliable to adjust a forward looking multiple based on your own forward-looking growth projections. Instead look at EV / TTM 3/31 Revenue for those same comparisons.
At $39 per share, DKNG has a market cap over $15 billion on TTM revenue of $451 million. So their revenue multiple is 33.7x, which is too overvalued! The “High Growth Consumer Internet” category that they selected is at 8.1x and “EU Sportsbook Operators” at 3.6x. Their best competitor is Flutter, which is Paddy Power + Fanduel + Stars, and it trades at 7.8x. DKNG deserves a higher multiple than Flutter because DKNG is pure-play USA, and Flutter earns retail European revenue that isn’t high growth. But the two companies currently have the same market cap, despite FanDuel competing directly with DKNG with more market share in the fast growing business segments. Even if you are generous to DKNG and believe they should trade at a 50% premium to Flutter, DKNG’s share price ought be just $13.50.
No, this isn’t about more states allowing sports betting. Let’s examine what must happen at the state level to value DKNG’s current valuation reasonably. In their December investor presentation, DKNG estimates their sports book net revenue at $2.3B given 25% market share and 65% of the US having online betting, with a 22% allowance for promos from Gross to Net. Consider their $4.5 billion of gross revenue at 100% of the population. Let’s bump that by 30% bump for iGaming. DKNG’s current $15 billion valuation and the same 50% premium to Flutter’s revenue multiple above (11.7x), mean that DKNG need $1.28B of revenue, or $831M more than they currently have. $831M more revenue needed means 14% more of the population must legalize in the very short term. Of the big five states, CA, TX, FL, NY and PA, none will add any population, because PA is already online, NY chose retail-only and researchers and lobbyists don’t think the other three will legalize for another 5 years. The remaining 46 states, including DC, average 1.3% of the population each, meaning you need a windfall of states to add 14% of the population.
Forget nationally legalized sports betting, because no one is even pushing for that and it won’t happen. SCOTUS invalidated PASPA to remove the Federal Government’s ability to make national decisions like (dis)allowing sports betting. Sports betting will roll out throughout the US, but will slog state-by-state.
Now that DKNG’s stock has rocketed, DKNA’s management has two good strategies, like TSLA did when TSLA's stock price rocketed in Jan 2020.
  1. The first is obvious: follow-on equity offering. In going public via a reverse merger with a SPAC, DKNG barely tapped the big institutional investors. This follow-on can add cash to the balance sheet. If you watched TV in 2015, you know DKNG love to spend money on ads, at a very attractive valuation for the company. What’s the problem? New shares, or if the follow-on prices poorly, can lower the current share price.
  2. The less obvious option is to buy a competitor, William Hill, that has a market cap of about $1.5B. They have a huge footprint in Europe, a market that DKNG previously tried and failed to enter. Europe threatens DKNG’ DTC approach in the US, and Europe has the IT that powers much of the land-based casinos’ sportsbook operations in the US. DKNG could buy them with their cheap stock, or issue new equity to raise money for the acquisition. DKNG would add much revenue, can cut lots of duplicated costs, diversify across countries and sports to temper their seasonality, and replace William Hill’s outdated tech with DKNG’s better apps. The downside is that these two companies’ CEOs dislike each other.
What’s one reason the stock has risen so much since the “IPO”? Because DKNG has a teensy number of liquid shares. Remember this wasn’t an IPO at all, it was a reverse merger with a SPAC, so a much higher percentage of outstanding shares are currently locked up than in a typical IPO. That constraint on supply with big retail demand could boost the stock price! I’ll summarize the 3 cases for DKNG.
  1. Short term bull: Sports come back, stock (irrationally) trades up on it.
  2. Short term bear: Stock price corrects to a more realistic valuation. Bulls take gains. Any of NHL, NBA, MLB announce they won’t play again in 2020. Company decides on more financial maneuvering.
  3. Long term bear: Q2 or Q3 earnings disappoint. The NFL cash cow drops or NBA or NHL ‘20-’21 season gets delayed. Lockup ends in October 2020.
submitted by lawgrads to Stock_Picks [link] [comments]

Removed comments/submissions for /u/WarmMyToast

Hi WarmMyToast, you're not shadowbanned, but 51 of your most recent 200 comments/submissions were removed (either automatically or by human moderators).

Comments:

g00m7ru in DarK on 01 Aug 20 (1pts):
What I find from this sub is that the fans of Dark are extremely toxic. I’m hate-watching it now because I am two episodes away from finishing the series. All I can say is I watch it like a comedy,...
g00kypt in DarK on 01 Aug 20 (1pts):
Orange is the new black >>>> Dark
Both have tons of characters but unlike DARK, oitnb actually has CHARACTER DEVELOPMENT and is much more interesting to watch as a DARK COMEDY while Dark feels...
g00j6ho in DarK on 01 Aug 20 (1pts):
Downvoted. I think OP can decide for himself whether he wants to continue or not without you being snarky about it shadily attacking his intellect.
fzzr2v0 in DarK on 01 Aug 20 (1pts):
Testing testing is my post shadowbanned
fzz8tbn in DarK on 01 Aug 20 (1pts):
Why do you try to shadowban me you stupid mofos of moderators? Who the fuck do you think you are? If you don’t allow dissenting opinion about the show, don’t make this subreddit at all. What a...
fzvxgd3 in DarK on 31 Jul 20 (1pts):
Am I the only one who thinks that Kataryna looks like Mary L Trump
fzvvkg4 in DarK on 31 Jul 20 (1pts):
The show isn’t even that great! Hell of a ride?
fzm6iv3 in BigBrother on 29 Jul 20 (-9pts):
Agreed. OP is an idiot
fzf8s4p in MLS on 27 Jul 20 (1pts):
They fucking ruined my net worth with bets

Submissions:

i1qqq8 in DarK on 01 Aug 20 (1pts):
[NO SPOILERS] the first few episodes were good but everything went downhill after Season 1 wrapped up
i1puwr in DarK on 01 Aug 20 (1pts):
[NOSPOILERS] this show is horrendous except for selected episodes of season 1
i1pod3 in DarK on 01 Aug 20 (1pts):
[SPOILERS] I liked the first few episodes then everything went downhill
i1bk8o in india on 31 Jul 20 (0pts):
Generic medication from Healing Pharma makes me sick?
i07euy in BigBrother on 29 Jul 20 (0pts):
I heard rumors that the season is re-postponed and re-cancelled because of coronavirus
i04n8q in DarK on 29 Jul 20 (1pts):
Theres not enough action in the series
hzzz91 in CBD on 29 Jul 20 (1pts):
I’ve been using hemp oil under the tongue for a few days. Today my urine looks so orange I feel dehydrated?
hzog7e in DarK on 28 Jul 20 (1pts):
A question
hzcg49 in BigBrother on 28 Jul 20 (0pts):
Yes Christmas will be on All Stars
hyvhfe in MLS on 27 Jul 20 (1pts):
Eff you TORONTO
hwy2r3 in BigBrother on 24 Jul 20 (1pts):
I wish Cody and Paul and Cody And Paulie are all on Big Brother 22
hu4fk4 in trump on 19 Jul 20 (1pts):
Why are you trumpists such pathetic scums?
htiypy in PremierLeague on 18 Jul 20 (0pts):
Blackburn-Reading 4-3 Fulham-Sheffield 5-3 QPR-Millwall 4-3
htgku3 in AskReddit on 18 Jul 20 (0pts):
Americans, why shouldnt there be a “New Constitution Party” or “21st Century Party” to remake America and abolish the obselete Amendments such as gun ownership?
ht7lrv in BigBrother on 18 Jul 20 (0pts):
Big Brother 22: Bullies vs Victims
hpfdw8 in BigBrother on 11 Jul 20 (4pts):
Is Paul or Paulie shorter
hn2g4h in stocks on 07 Jul 20 (0pts):
Evolution Gaming Stock
hn2177 in Referees on 07 Jul 20 (0pts):
F you soccer referees who like to say clear goals are offsides and abuse the VAR. do you know how many bettors’ lives are ruined because of your “human error”?
hguovb in SoccerBetting on 27 Jun 20 (0pts):
Dortmund deliberately losing to let Hoffenheim play in Europa League
hgbfxi in SoccerBetting on 26 Jun 20 (9pts):
Japanese Division 2 tips
glmpe5 in HongKong on 17 May 20 (1pts):
Best online subscription option to watch Bundesliga in Hongkong?
gllyim in survivor on 17 May 20 (1pts):
Something that I Notice
gleop5 in americanidol on 17 May 20 (0pts):
I’m not convinced
gkahxm in survivor on 15 May 20 (0pts):
Survivor Facebook group has terrible mods
gjmvg8 in BigBrother on 14 May 20 (1pts):
How about Big Brother:90 Day Fiancé Edition
gi78es in germany on 12 May 20 (0pts):
I want a German boyfriend
ghn53y in 90DayFiance on 11 May 20 (0pts):
I have figured out who Stephanie reminds me of
ghmgh0 in 90DayFiance on 11 May 20 (0pts):
Rearranging the couples to make them happier
ghmfg0 in 90DayFiance on 11 May 20 (1pts):
Rematching the couples
ghl4cl in 90DayFiance on 11 May 20 (1pts):
Steph reminds me of
ghl3wj in 90DayFiance on 11 May 20 (1pts):
Does Stephanie remind you of .........???????
ghl3hy in 90DayFiance on 11 May 20 (1pts):
Stephanie reminds me of
ggu3na in BigBrother on 10 May 20 (1pts):
BiG Brother 90 Day Fiancé
gd4ri2 in BigBrother on 04 May 20 (1pts):
Why is Big Brother Germany still on when Big Brother Canada is cancelled ?
gay0w8 in HongKong on 30 Apr 20 (1pts):
I have a stony neck, does anyone know any orthopedist here personally?
gau9lv in americanidol on 30 Apr 20 (0pts):
Lauren
g9kzl2 in americanidol on 28 Apr 20 (1pts):
I’m trying to watch the voice now and..
g8m173 in orthopaedics on 26 Apr 20 (0pts):
To every orthopedist in the world, I have hyoid/spinous/transverse process/thyroid/cricoid cartilage/anterior cervical spine bone spurs, what can I do?Help
g82plx in AskReddit on 25 Apr 20 (1pts):
If I am the only person in the world who has a unique undiagnosed condition, who should I turn to for diagnosis, prognosis and treatment?
g7vjry in quittingkratom on 25 Apr 20 (1pts):
I want to cry
g42ia1 in AskDocs on 19 Apr 20 (1pts):
If I have something wrong with my hyoid bone should I see orthopaedist, head&neck or neurosurgeon ?
g37i70 in survivor on 17 Apr 20 (0pts):
Weird dream I had about a survivor legend
I'm a bot. My home is at /CommentRemovalChecker - check if your posts have been removed! (How to use)
Help us expose and stand up to social media bias and censorship!
submitted by MarkdownShadowBot to CommentRemovalChecker [link] [comments]

Removed comments/submissions for /u/WarmMyToast

Hi WarmMyToast, you're not shadowbanned, but 51 of your most recent 200 comments/submissions were removed (either automatically or by human moderators).

Comments:

g00m7ru in DarK on 01 Aug 20 (1pts):
What I find from this sub is that the fans of Dark are extremely toxic. I’m hate-watching it now because I am two episodes away from finishing the series. All I can say is I watch it like a comedy,...
g00kypt in DarK on 01 Aug 20 (1pts):
Orange is the new black >>>> Dark
Both have tons of characters but unlike DARK, oitnb actually has CHARACTER DEVELOPMENT and is much more interesting to watch as a DARK COMEDY while Dark feels...
g00j6ho in DarK on 01 Aug 20 (1pts):
Downvoted. I think OP can decide for himself whether he wants to continue or not without you being snarky about it shadily attacking his intellect.
fzzr2v0 in DarK on 01 Aug 20 (1pts):
Testing testing is my post shadowbanned
fzz8tbn in DarK on 01 Aug 20 (1pts):
Why do you try to shadowban me you stupid mofos of moderators? Who the fuck do you think you are? If you don’t allow dissenting opinion about the show, don’t make this subreddit at all. What a...
fzvxgd3 in DarK on 31 Jul 20 (1pts):
Am I the only one who thinks that Kataryna looks like Mary L Trump
fzvvkg4 in DarK on 31 Jul 20 (1pts):
The show isn’t even that great! Hell of a ride?
fzm6iv3 in BigBrother on 29 Jul 20 (-9pts):
Agreed. OP is an idiot
fzf8s4p in MLS on 27 Jul 20 (1pts):
They fucking ruined my net worth with bets

Submissions:

i1qqq8 in DarK on 01 Aug 20 (1pts):
[NO SPOILERS] the first few episodes were good but everything went downhill after Season 1 wrapped up
i1puwr in DarK on 01 Aug 20 (1pts):
[NOSPOILERS] this show is horrendous except for selected episodes of season 1
i1pod3 in DarK on 01 Aug 20 (1pts):
[SPOILERS] I liked the first few episodes then everything went downhill
i1bk8o in india on 31 Jul 20 (0pts):
Generic medication from Healing Pharma makes me sick?
i07euy in BigBrother on 29 Jul 20 (0pts):
I heard rumors that the season is re-postponed and re-cancelled because of coronavirus
i04n8q in DarK on 29 Jul 20 (1pts):
Theres not enough action in the series
hzzz91 in CBD on 29 Jul 20 (1pts):
I’ve been using hemp oil under the tongue for a few days. Today my urine looks so orange I feel dehydrated?
hzog7e in DarK on 28 Jul 20 (1pts):
A question
hzcg49 in BigBrother on 28 Jul 20 (0pts):
Yes Christmas will be on All Stars
hyvhfe in MLS on 27 Jul 20 (1pts):
Eff you TORONTO
hwy2r3 in BigBrother on 24 Jul 20 (1pts):
I wish Cody and Paul and Cody And Paulie are all on Big Brother 22
hu4fk4 in trump on 19 Jul 20 (1pts):
Why are you trumpists such pathetic scums?
htiypy in PremierLeague on 18 Jul 20 (0pts):
Blackburn-Reading 4-3 Fulham-Sheffield 5-3 QPR-Millwall 4-3
htgku3 in AskReddit on 18 Jul 20 (0pts):
Americans, why shouldnt there be a “New Constitution Party” or “21st Century Party” to remake America and abolish the obselete Amendments such as gun ownership?
ht7lrv in BigBrother on 18 Jul 20 (0pts):
Big Brother 22: Bullies vs Victims
hpfdw8 in BigBrother on 11 Jul 20 (4pts):
Is Paul or Paulie shorter
hn2g4h in stocks on 07 Jul 20 (0pts):
Evolution Gaming Stock
hn2177 in Referees on 07 Jul 20 (0pts):
F you soccer referees who like to say clear goals are offsides and abuse the VAR. do you know how many bettors’ lives are ruined because of your “human error”?
hguovb in SoccerBetting on 27 Jun 20 (0pts):
Dortmund deliberately losing to let Hoffenheim play in Europa League
hgbfxi in SoccerBetting on 26 Jun 20 (9pts):
Japanese Division 2 tips
glmpe5 in HongKong on 17 May 20 (1pts):
Best online subscription option to watch Bundesliga in Hongkong?
gllyim in survivor on 17 May 20 (1pts):
Something that I Notice
gleop5 in americanidol on 17 May 20 (0pts):
I’m not convinced
gkahxm in survivor on 15 May 20 (0pts):
Survivor Facebook group has terrible mods
gjmvg8 in BigBrother on 14 May 20 (1pts):
How about Big Brother:90 Day Fiancé Edition
gi78es in germany on 12 May 20 (0pts):
I want a German boyfriend
ghn53y in 90DayFiance on 11 May 20 (0pts):
I have figured out who Stephanie reminds me of
ghmgh0 in 90DayFiance on 11 May 20 (0pts):
Rearranging the couples to make them happier
ghmfg0 in 90DayFiance on 11 May 20 (1pts):
Rematching the couples
ghl4cl in 90DayFiance on 11 May 20 (1pts):
Steph reminds me of
ghl3wj in 90DayFiance on 11 May 20 (1pts):
Does Stephanie remind you of .........???????
ghl3hy in 90DayFiance on 11 May 20 (1pts):
Stephanie reminds me of
ggu3na in BigBrother on 10 May 20 (1pts):
BiG Brother 90 Day Fiancé
gd4ri2 in BigBrother on 04 May 20 (1pts):
Why is Big Brother Germany still on when Big Brother Canada is cancelled ?
gay0w8 in HongKong on 30 Apr 20 (1pts):
I have a stony neck, does anyone know any orthopedist here personally?
gau9lv in americanidol on 30 Apr 20 (0pts):
Lauren
g9kzl2 in americanidol on 28 Apr 20 (1pts):
I’m trying to watch the voice now and..
g8m173 in orthopaedics on 26 Apr 20 (0pts):
To every orthopedist in the world, I have hyoid/spinous/transverse process/thyroid/cricoid cartilage/anterior cervical spine bone spurs, what can I do?Help
g82plx in AskReddit on 25 Apr 20 (1pts):
If I am the only person in the world who has a unique undiagnosed condition, who should I turn to for diagnosis, prognosis and treatment?
g7vjry in quittingkratom on 25 Apr 20 (1pts):
I want to cry
g42ia1 in AskDocs on 19 Apr 20 (1pts):
If I have something wrong with my hyoid bone should I see orthopaedist, head&neck or neurosurgeon ?
g37i70 in survivor on 17 Apr 20 (0pts):
Weird dream I had about a survivor legend
I'm a bot. My home is at /CommentRemovalChecker - check if your posts have been removed! (How to use)
Help us expose and stand up to social media bias and censorship!
submitted by MarkdownShadowBot to CommentRemovalChecker [link] [comments]

List of Online Teaching Companies

submitted by Dantello1 to IWantOutJobs [link] [comments]

What do you think of my DD on DraftKings (DKNG)?

DKNG has gained a lot the week of May 24 2020, mostly focused on May 26 (Tues) and May 28 (Thurs). Both days saw intraday spikes on sports-world news. On May 26 afternoon, a presser with Gary Bettman was announced, and on May 28, it was announced that the Premier League would return in June. Oddly, the stock did not drop at all, after Bettman’s announcement turned out to just be an expanded playoff format, and nothing about a return to the ice. The Premier League news didn’t impact other sports betting stocks either. Both events clearly imply that DKNG’ stock is hugely overpriced, but it’s being driven up just by trading. I’m not affiliated with DKNG in any way.
The company’s lousy Q1 earnings was quite the spin job, and I was shocked to see the stock rise that day! Growth in marketing expenses can be written off as entering new states, but no growth in net revenue, despite 30% growth in gross revenue, means that the company can’t actually grow. In other words, almost all revenue was grown by offering free bets and reducing vigorish. Let’s examine revenue growth further.
I was stunned that the company led with “30% revenue growth” when, in fact, that was only at Old DKNG, which constitutes 75% of New DKNG revenue. SBTech makes up the rest and grew at only 3%, giving the public company a 23% growth rate for the quarter, not the 30% spin job. DKNG might’ve unintentionally unveiled COVID19’s impact. At Old DKNG, they noted 60% growth through March 10th. If we assume that each day through the quarter is equal, that means the last 21 days of the quarter would have been down 70% vs Q1 ’19!!! This difference is hefty! But we know not all days are created equal in the world of sports, and Q1 included 5 NFL playoff days and the Super Bowl. If we assume NFL betting days are 3x a normal day and the Super Bowl is 3x a normal NFL day, revenue post-March 10th will drop 95%. Similarly, because SBTech’s dropped from +19% to only +3%, revenue post-COVID19 will drop at least by half.
Also examine how they pitched themselves when the merger was announced in Dec. 2019. On slide 22, DKNG compare their valuation to competitors’, trying to show that the valuation is fair, probably trying to counter DKNG’s valuation that was4x what Paddy Power paid for FanDuel 18 months earlier. Let’s ignore the “EV / 2021E Revenue – Growth Adjusted” multiple that they highlight, because it’s completely unreliable to adjust a forward looking multiple based on your own forward-looking growth projections. Instead look at EV / TTM 3/31 Revenue for those same comparisons.
At $39 per share, DKNG has a market cap over $15 billion on TTM revenue of $451 million. So their revenue multiple is 33.7x, which is too overvalued! The “High Growth Consumer Internet” category that they selected is at 8.1x and “EU Sportsbook Operators” at 3.6x. Their best competitor is Flutter, which is Paddy Power + Fanduel + Stars, and it trades at 7.8x. DKNG deserves a higher multiple than Flutter because DKNG is pure-play USA, and Flutter earns retail European revenue that isn’t high growth. But the two companies currently have the same market cap, despite FanDuel competing directly with DKNG with more market share in the fast growing business segments. Even if you are generous to DKNG and believe they should trade at a 50% premium to Flutter, DKNG’s share price ought be just $13.50.
No, this isn’t about more states allowing sports betting. Let’s examine what must happen at the state level to value DKNG’s current valuation reasonably. In their December investor presentation, DKNG estimates their sports book net revenue at $2.3B given 25% market share and 65% of the US having online betting, with a 22% allowance for promos from Gross to Net. Consider their $4.5 billion of gross revenue at 100% of the population. Let’s bump that by 30% bump for iGaming. DKNG’s current $15 billion valuation and the same 50% premium to Flutter’s revenue multiple above (11.7x), mean that DKNG need $1.28B of revenue, or $831M more than they currently have. $831M more revenue needed means 14% more of the population must legalize in the very short term. Of the big five states, CA, TX, FL, NY and PA, none will add any population, because PA is already online, NY chose retail-only and researchers and lobbyists don’t think the other three will legalize for another 5 years. The remaining 46 states, including DC, average 1.3% of the population each, meaning you need a windfall of states to add 14% of the population.
Forget nationally legalized sports betting, because no one is even pushing for that and it won’t happen. SCOTUS invalidated PASPA to remove the Federal Government’s ability to make national decisions like (dis)allowing sports betting. Sports betting will roll out throughout the US, but will slog state-by-state.
Now that DKNG’s stock has rocketed, DKNA’s management has two good strategies, like TSLA did when TSLA's stock price rocketed in Jan 2020.
  1. The first is obvious: follow-on equity offering. In going public via a reverse merger with a SPAC, DKNG barely tapped the big institutional investors. This follow-on can add cash to the balance sheet. If you watched TV in 2015, you know DKNG love to spend money on ads, at a very attractive valuation for the company. What’s the problem? New shares, or if the follow-on prices poorly, can lower the current share price.
  2. The less obvious option is to buy a competitor, William Hill, that has a market cap of about $1.5B. They have a huge footprint in Europe, a market that DKNG previously tried and failed to enter. Europe threatens DKNG’ DTC approach in the US, and Europe has the IT that powers much of the land-based casinos’ sportsbook operations in the US. DKNG could buy them with their cheap stock, or issue new equity to raise money for the acquisition. DKNG would add much revenue, can cut lots of duplicated costs, diversify across countries and sports to temper their seasonality, and replace William Hill’s outdated tech with DKNG’s better apps. The downside is that these two companies’ CEOs dislike each other.
What’s one reason the stock has risen so much since the “IPO”? Because DKNG has a teensy number of liquid shares. Remember this wasn’t an IPO at all, it was a reverse merger with a SPAC, so a much higher percentage of outstanding shares are currently locked up than in a typical IPO. That constraint on supply with big retail demand could boost the stock price! I’ll summarize the 3 cases for DKNG.
  1. Short term bull: Sports come back, stock (irrationally) trades up on it.
  2. Short term bear: Stock price corrects to a more realistic valuation. Bulls take gains. Any of NHL, NBA, MLB announce they won’t play again in 2020. Company decides on more financial maneuvering.
  3. Long term bear: Q2 or Q3 earnings disappoint. The NFL cash cow drops or NBA or NHL ‘20-’21 season gets delayed. Lockup ends in October 2020.
submitted by lawgrads to InvestmentClub [link] [comments]

What do you think of my DD on DraftKings (DKNG)?

DKNG has gained a lot the week of May 24 2020, mostly focused on May 26 (Tues) and May 28 (Thurs). Both days saw intraday spikes on sports-world news. On May 26 afternoon, a presser with Gary Bettman was announced, and on May 28, it was announced that the Premier League would return in June. Oddly, the stock did not drop at all, after Bettman’s announcement turned out to just be an expanded playoff format, and nothing about a return to the ice. The Premier League news didn’t impact other sports betting stocks either. Both events clearly imply that DKNG’ stock is hugely overpriced, but it’s being driven up just by trading. I’m not affiliated with DKNG in any way.
The company’s lousy Q1 earnings was quite the spin job, and I was shocked to see the stock rise that day! Growth in marketing expenses can be written off as entering new states, but no growth in net revenue, despite 30% growth in gross revenue, means that the company can’t actually grow. In other words, almost all revenue was grown by offering free bets and reducing vigorish. Let’s examine revenue growth further.
I was stunned that the company led with “30% revenue growth” when, in fact, that was only at Old DKNG, which constitutes 75% of New DKNG revenue. SBTech makes up the rest and grew at only 3%, giving the public company a 23% growth rate for the quarter, not the 30% spin job. DKNG might’ve unintentionally unveiled COVID19’s impact. At Old DKNG, they noted 60% growth through March 10th. If we assume that each day through the quarter is equal, that means the last 21 days of the quarter would have been down 70% vs Q1 ’19!!! This difference is hefty! But we know not all days are created equal in the world of sports, and Q1 included 5 NFL playoff days and the Super Bowl. If we assume NFL betting days are 3x a normal day and the Super Bowl is 3x a normal NFL day, revenue post-March 10th will drop 95%. Similarly, because SBTech’s dropped from +19% to only +3%, revenue post-COVID19 will drop at least by half.
Also examine how they pitched themselves when the merger was announced in Dec. 2019. On slide 22, DKNG compare their valuation to competitors’, trying to show that the valuation is fair, probably trying to counter DKNG’s valuation that was4x what Paddy Power paid for FanDuel 18 months earlier. Let’s ignore the “EV / 2021E Revenue – Growth Adjusted” multiple that they highlight, because it’s completely unreliable to adjust a forward looking multiple based on your own forward-looking growth projections. Instead look at EV / TTM 3/31 Revenue for those same comparisons.
At $39 per share, DKNG has a market cap over $15 billion on TTM revenue of $451 million. So their revenue multiple is 33.7x, which is too overvalued! The “High Growth Consumer Internet” category that they selected is at 8.1x and “EU Sportsbook Operators” at 3.6x. Their best competitor is Flutter, which is Paddy Power + Fanduel + Stars, and it trades at 7.8x. DKNG deserves a higher multiple than Flutter because DKNG is pure-play USA, and Flutter earns retail European revenue that isn’t high growth. But the two companies currently have the same market cap, despite FanDuel competing directly with DKNG with more market share in the fast growing business segments. Even if you are generous to DKNG and believe they should trade at a 50% premium to Flutter, DKNG’s share price ought be just $13.50.
No, this isn’t about more states allowing sports betting. Let’s examine what must happen at the state level to value DKNG’s current valuation reasonably. In their December investor presentation, DKNG estimates their sports book net revenue at $2.3B given 25% market share and 65% of the US having online betting, with a 22% allowance for promos from Gross to Net. Consider their $4.5 billion of gross revenue at 100% of the population. Let’s bump that by 30% bump for iGaming. DKNG’s current $15 billion valuation and the same 50% premium to Flutter’s revenue multiple above (11.7x), mean that DKNG need $1.28B of revenue, or $831M more than they currently have. $831M more revenue needed means 14% more of the population must legalize in the very short term. Of the big five states, CA, TX, FL, NY and PA, none will add any population, because PA is already online, NY chose retail-only and researchers and lobbyists don’t think the other three will legalize for another 5 years. The remaining 46 states, including DC, average 1.3% of the population each, meaning you need a windfall of states to add 14% of the population.
Forget nationally legalized sports betting, because no one is even pushing for that and it won’t happen. SCOTUS invalidated PASPA to remove the Federal Government’s ability to make national decisions like (dis)allowing sports betting. Sports betting will roll out throughout the US, but will slog state-by-state.
Now that DKNG’s stock has rocketed, DKNA’s management has two good strategies, like TSLA did when TSLA's stock price rocketed in Jan 2020.
  1. The first is obvious: follow-on equity offering. In going public via a reverse merger with a SPAC, DKNG barely tapped the big institutional investors. This follow-on can add cash to the balance sheet. If you watched TV in 2015, you know DKNG love to spend money on ads, at a very attractive valuation for the company. What’s the problem? New shares, or if the follow-on prices poorly, can lower the current share price.
  2. The less obvious option is to buy a competitor, William Hill, that has a market cap of about $1.5B. They have a huge footprint in Europe, a market that DKNG previously tried and failed to enter. Europe threatens DKNG’ DTC approach in the US, and Europe has the IT that powers much of the land-based casinos’ sportsbook operations in the US. DKNG could buy them with their cheap stock, or issue new equity to raise money for the acquisition. DKNG would add much revenue, can cut lots of duplicated costs, diversify across countries and sports to temper their seasonality, and replace William Hill’s outdated tech with DKNG’s better apps. The downside is that these two companies’ CEOs dislike each other.
What’s one reason the stock has risen so much since the “IPO”? Because DKNG has a teensy number of liquid shares. Remember this wasn’t an IPO at all, it was a reverse merger with a SPAC, so a much higher percentage of outstanding shares are currently locked up than in a typical IPO. That constraint on supply with big retail demand could boost the stock price! I’ll summarize the 3 cases for DKNG.
  1. Short term bull: Sports come back, stock (irrationally) trades up on it.
  2. Short term bear: Stock price corrects to a more realistic valuation. Bulls take gains. Any of NHL, NBA, MLB announce they won’t play again in 2020. Company decides on more financial maneuvering.
  3. Long term bear: Q2 or Q3 earnings disappoint. The NFL cash cow drops or NBA or NHL ‘20-’21 season gets delayed. Lockup ends in October 2020.
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Oscars 2021: An inside look (like, really inside) to 50 possible contenders in the next awards race

Another Oscar ceremony happened, and we got our fair share of joy and disappointment. After Parasite surprised the world and took Best Picture, it seems like the game has changed for the awards race, now that non-English speaking films can actually fight and be recognized as well as classics as… Green Book. The Oscar race is still full of pain and glory, and even though the year has barely started, we have a bunch of movies that are fighting for air. And here’s 50 of them. Yes, I had some free time in my hands and this is a cool hobby, so I took the liberty to introduce most of the movies that will have Film Twitter entertained for the following 12 months. I say most, because there are always contenders who come out of nowhere later in the year, so this is the starter set. Here we go.
-Annette: Since Parasite’s road to the Oscars started at Cannes, it seems fair to talk about a movie that is circling a premiere in the world stage that is set in France. After delivering weird, indie classics like Mauvais Sang and Holy Motors (yes, the kind of movies that make you seem like a snob when you recommend them to people), Leos Carax is making his first movie spoken in the English language… and it has a musical screenplay written by the cult rock duo of Sparks. Recently robbed Adam Driver and previous Oscar winner Marion Cotillard sing in this tale of a stand-up comedian and a famous soprano singer who rise and fall in Los Angeles while their daughter is born with a special gift. It seems like a wild bet, but we already know that Carax is a master with musical moments, so this is one of the most intriguing question marks of the year.
-Ammonite: It’s time to talk narratives. On the one hand, we have Kate Winslet, a known name who hasn’t been very successful in the Oscar race since her Oscar win for The Reader over a decade ago (with the exception being her supporting performance in Steve Jobs, where she had a weird accent). On the other, we have Saoirse Ronan, a star on the rise who keeps collecting Oscar nominations, with 4 nods at the age of 25, including her fresh Best Actress loss for Little Women. What happens if we put them together in a drama set in the coasts of England during the 19th century where both of them fall for each other? That’s gonna be a winning formula if writedirector Francis Lee (who tackled queer romance in his acclaimed debut God’s Own Country) nails the Mary Anning story, and Neon (the distribution company founded three years ago that took Parasite to victory) is betting on it.
-Benedetta: We know the Paul Verhoeven story. After isolating himself from Hollywood for over a decade, he took Isabelle Huppert to an Oscar nominated performance with the controversial, sexy, dark and funny thriller Elle. Now, he’s back with another story that perks up the ears, because now he’s covering the life of Benedetta Carlini, a 17th-century lesbian nun who had religious and erotic visions. If you know Paul, you already can tell that this fits into his brand of horniness, and a possible Cannes premiere could tell us if this has something to carry itself to Oscar night.
-Blonde: With a short but impactful directorial credits list that takes us from Chopper, to The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford to Killing Them Softly, Andrew Dominik is back with a film about Marilyn Monroe, a woman who has transcended the ideas of fame and stardom, in ways that are glamorous and nightmarish at the same time. After failing to launch with Naomi Watts or Jessica Chastain,the rising Ana de Armas takes the lead in the retelling of Monroe’s troubled life based on Joyce Carol Oates’ novel, which is said to be covered in the screenplay as somewhat of a horror movie. We don’t know what that means yet, but Netflix is gonna push hard for this one, especially considering how the Academy loves throwing awards to stars playing previous stars, and that also can possibly include co-stars Bobby Cannavale and Adrien Brody.
-Breaking News in Yuba County: While he hasn’t gone back to the heights of his success achieved by the box office and award success of The Help (a movie that did not age well), Tate Taylor is still enjoying himself economically due to recent thrillers like The Girl on the Train and Ma. For his next movie, he’s made a dramedy that once again reunites him with Oscar winner Allison Janney, where she plays a woman who has to keep appearances and a hidden body when she catches her husband cheating on her, and then he dies of a heart attack. With a cast that also includes Mila Kunis, Regina Hall, Awkwafina, Samira Wiley, Wanda Sykes, Jimmi Simpson and Ellen Barkin, this could be a buzzy title later this year.
-C’mon C’mon: You may love or hate whatever Joaquin Phoenix did in Joker, but you can’t deny the benefit of playing the Crown Prince of Crime in an Oscar-winning performance. The blank check that you share with indie directors afterwards. Now that Joaquin’s cultural cachet is on the rise, Mike Mills gets to benefit with this drama that stars Phoenix and Gaby Hoffmann, with him playing an artist left to take care of his precocious young nephew as they forge an unexpected bond over a cross country trip. We only have to wonder if A24 will do better with this movie’s Oscar chances compared to 20th Century Women.
-Cherry: After killing half the universe and bringing them back with the highest grossing movie of all time, where do you go? For Joe and Anthony Russo, the answer is “away from the Marvel Cinematic Universe”. The Russo brothers are trying to distance themselves and prove that they have a voice without Kevin Feige behind them, with a crime drama that’s also different than their days when they directed You, Me and Dupree or episodes of Arrested Development and Community. To help them in the journey, they took Tom Holland (who also needs to distance himself from Spider-Man, lest he ends up stuck to the character in the audience’s eyes) to star in a crime drama based on former Army medic Nico Walker’s memoir about his days after Iraq, where the PTSD and an opioid addiction led him to start robbing banks.
-Da 5 Bloods: After bouncing back from a slump with the critical and commercial success of BlackKklansman, Spike Lee is cashing a Netflix check to tell the tale of four African American veterans who return to Vietnam to search for their fallen leader and some treasure. With a cast that includes Delroy Lindo, Clarke Peters, Isiah Whitlock Jr, Paul Walter Hauser and Chadwick Boseman, this sounds like an interesting combo, although we still should remember the last time that Spike tried his hand at a war movie, with the dull Miracle at St. Anna.
-Dune: If you are on Reddit, you probably know about the new film by movies’ new Messiah, Denis Villeneuve. While the epic sci-fi novel by Frank Herbert is getting a new chance in the multiplexes after that David Lynch movie that was forgotten by many, some are hoping that this will be the beginning of a new franchise (as seen by the release date of December 18, taking the spot of the usual Star Wars opening), and a return to the whole “remember when stuff like Return of the King or Fury Road were nominated for Best Picture?” question. Timothee Chalamet will be riding a lot of hope, and sandworm.
-Everybody’s Talking About Jamie: As you start to see, there are several musicals that are gonna be fighting for attention over the next year, and Annette was the first one. Now, we also have this adaptation of the hit West End production, that centers around a gay British teenager who dreams of becoming a drag queen and get his family and schoolmates to accept his sexuality. With a cast that mixes young unknowns, familiar Brits (Sharon Horgan, Sarah Lancashire and my boy Ralph Ineson) and the previously nominated legend that is Richard E. Grant (who is playing a former drag queen named Loco Chanelle), the creative team of the stage musical will jump to the big screen with the help of Fox Searchlight (sorry, just Searchlight), who has clear Oscar hopes with a release date right in the middle of awards heat, on October 23.
-Hillbilly Elegy: Even though the Parasite victory gave many people hope for a new Academy that stops recognizing stuff like previous winner Green Book… let’s be honest, the Academy will still look for movies like Green Book. This year, many people are turning their eyes towards Ron Howard’ adaptation of J.D. Vance’s memoir about his low income life in a poor rural community in Ohio, filled with drugs, violence and verbal abuse. If this sounds like white trash porn, it doesn’t help to know that Glenn Close, who has become the biggest living Oscar bridesmaid with seven nominations, will play a character called Mamaw. And if that sounds trashy, then you have to know that Amy Adams, who follows Glenn with six nominations, is playing her drug-addicted, careless daughter. I don’t want to call this “Oscar bait”, but it sure is tempting.
-I’m Thinking of Ending Things: After his stopmotion existential dramedy Anomalisa got him a Best Animated Feature nomination at the Oscars but at the same time bombed at the box office, Charlie Kaufman is getting the Netflix check. This time, he’s adapting the dark novel by Iain Reid, about a woman (Jessie Buckley, who is on the rise and took over the role after Brie Larson had to pass) who is taken by her boyfriend (Jesse Plemons) to meet his parents (Toni Collette and David Thewlis), in a trip that takes a turn for the worse. If Kaufman can deliver with this one, it will be a big contender.
-In the Heights: Yes, more musicals! This time, it’s time to talk about Lin-Manuel Miranda’s first Tony-winning musical, that was overshadowed because of his other small play about some treasury secretary. Now, his Broadway ensemble tale about life in a neighborhood in Washington Heights is jumping to the movie screen with Jon Chu at the helm, following the success of Crazy Rich Asians. This Latino tale mixes up-and-comers like Anthony Ramos (who comes straight from Hamilton and playing Lady Gaga’s friend in A Star is Born), names like Corey Hawkins and Jimmy Smits (who is pro bits), and Olga Merediz, who starred in the Broadway show as Abuela Claudia and who could be the early frontrunner for Best Supporting Actress, if Chu allows her to shine like she did onstage.
-Jesus Was My Homeboy: When looking at up-and-coming Black actors right now in Hollywood, two of the top names are Daniel Kaluuya and Lakeith Stanfield, who already appeared in the same movie in Get Out, which earned Kaluuya a Best Actor nomination. This time, they share the screen in Shaka King’s retelling of the story of Fred Hampton (Kaluuya), an activist and Black Panther leader… as well as the story of William O’Neal (Stanfield), the FBI agent sent by J. Edgar Hoover to infiltrate the party and arrest him. With the backing of Warner Bros, this will attempt to make an impact with a clash of actors that will have to fight with an August release date, not the ideal time to release an awards movie.
-King Richard: Starting with Suicide Squad, Will Smith has been trying to prove that he’s back and better than ever. Some attempts to get back to the top of the A-list (Aladdin, Bad Boys For Life) have worked, while others (Gemini Man, Spies in Disguise)... have not. But Will is still going, and now he’s going for his next prestige play as he plays Richard Williams, the coach and father of the tennis legends Venus and Serena, who pushed them to their full potential. While it’s weird that the father of the Williams sisters is getting a movie before them, it does sound like a meaty role for Smith, who has experience with Oscar notices with sports biopics because of what he did with Michael Mann in Ali. Let’s hope director Reinaldo Marcus Green can take him there too.
-Last Night in Soho: Every year, one or two directors who have a cool reputation end up in the Dolby Theatre, and 2020 could be the year of Edgar Wright. After delivering his first big box office hit with Baby Driver, the Brit is going back to London to tell a story in the realm of psychological horror, which has been supposedly inspired by classics like Don’t Look Now and Repulsion. With a premise that supposedly involves time travel and a cast that includes Anya-Taylor Joy, Thomasin McKenzie, Matt Smith and Diana Rigg, Wright (who also co-wrote this with Krysty Wilson-Cairns, who was just nominated for Best Original Screenplay for her work in 1917) is making a big swing.
-Let Them All Talk: Every year there’s more new streaming services, and that also means that there’s new players in the Oscar game. To secure subscribers to the new service, HBO Max has secured the rights to the next Steven Soderbergh movie, a comedy that stars Meryl Streep as a celebrated author that takes her friends (Candice Bergen, Dianne Wiest) and her nephew (Lucas Hedges, again) in a journey to find fun and come to terms with the past. The last time that Soderbergh and Streep worked together, the end result was the very disappointing The Laundromat. Let’s hope that this time everything works out.
-Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom: Now that Netflix got the deal to adapt August Wilson’s acclaimed plays with Denzel Washington’s production company, the next jump from the stage to the screen is a meaty one. Viola Davis is playing blues singer Ma Rainey in this tale of a heated recording session with her bandmates, her agent and her producer in 1927, with a cast that also includes Chadwick Boseman, Glynn Turman and Colman Domingo. The Tony nominated play talked about race, art and the intersection of the two, and it’s gonna be explosive to see that unfold on screen, even if director George C. Wolfe’s previous filmography isn’t very encouraging.
-Macbeth: In a shocking development, the Coen brothers are no more. Well, just this time. For the first time in his career, Joel Coen is making a movie without Ethan, and it’s a Shakespeare adaptation. Denzel Washington is playing the man who wants to be king of Scotland, and Frances McDormand is playing his Lady Macbeth. While this just started filming and it will be a race to finish it in time for competition in the awards race, the potential is there, and this project has everybody’s attention.
-Mank: After scoring 24 Oscar nominations and only winning 2 awards last Sunday, Netflix has to wonder what else must they do to get in the club that awards them. They tried with Cuarón, they tried with Scorsese, they tried with Baumbach, they tried with two Popes, and they still feel a barrier. Now, the big gamble for awards by the streamer in 2020 comes to us in the hands of David Fincher, who is basically their friend after the rest of Hollywood denied him (Disney dropped his 20,000 Leagues adaptation, HBO denied the US remake of Utopia, and Paramount drove World War Z 2 away from him). In his first movie since 2014’s Gone Girl, David will go black and white to tackle a script by his late father about the making of the classic of classics, Citizen Kane, with previous Oscar winner Gary Oldman playing the lead role of screenwriter Herman J. Mankiewicz. Will the Academy fall for the ultimate “power of da moviesshhh” story?
-Minari: Sundance can be hit or miss with the breakout films that try to make it to the Oscars. However, you can’t deny the waves made by A24 when they premiered Lee Isaac Chung’s new drama there, ending up winning the Grand Jury Prize and the Audience Award in the US Dramatic Competition. If Parasite endeared Academy voters to Korean families, Steven Yeun hopes that the same thing happens with this story, where he plays a father in the ‘80s who suddenly decides to move his family to Arkansas to start a farm. Even though the reviews have been great, we must also remember that last year, A24 had in their hands The Farewell, another Sundance hit about an Asian family that ended up with no Oscar nominations. Let’s hope that this time, the Plan B influence (remember, that’s Brad Pitt’s production company, of Moonlight and 12 Years a Slave fame) makes a difference.
-Next Goal Wins: It’s a good time to be Taika Waititi. Why? Taika Waititi can do what he wants. He can direct a Thor movie, he can win an Oscar for writing a comedy set in WW2 about a Third Reich boy who has an Imaginary Hitler friend, or he can pop up in The Mandalorian as a droid. Taika keeps winning, and he wants more. Between his press tour for Jojo Rabbit and his return to the MCU, he quickly shot an adaptation of a great documentary about the disgraced national team of American Samoa, one of the worst football teams known to man, as they try to make the cut for the 2014 FIFA World Cup. Everybody loves a good sports comedy, and Searchlight bets that we’ll enjoy this story led by Michael Fassbender as the new (and Dutch-American) coach in town who tries to shape the team for victory.
-News of the World: Seven years after their solid collaboration in Captain Phillips, Paul Greengrass and Tom Hanks reunite for more awards love in what seems to be Universal’s main attraction for the Oscars. This time, Hanks stars in a Western drama based on Paulette Jiles’ novel where he plays a traveling newsreader in the aftermath of the American Civil War who is tasked with reuniting an orphaned girl with her living relatives. With a Christmas release date, Universal is betting big in getting the same nomination boost that 1917 is enjoying right now, and the formula is promising.
-Nightmare Alley: Following his Best Picture and Best Director wins for The Shape of Water, everybody in Hollywood wondered what would Guillermo del Toro do next. Well, as Del Toro often does, a little bit of everything and nothing. Some projects moved (as his produced Pinocchio movie on Netflix, or his Death Stranding likeness cameo), others stalled and die (like his proposed Fantastic Voyage remake). But now he’s rolling on his next project, a new adaptation of the William Lindsay Gresham novel that already was a Tyrone Power film in 1947. This noir tale tells the story of a con man (Bradley Cooper) who teams up with a psychiatrist (Cate Blanchett) to trick people and win money, and how things get out of control. With a cast that also includes Toni Collette, Willem Dafoe, Rooney Mara and more, this could play well if it hits the right tone.
-Nomadland: There’s breakout years, and then there’s the amazing potential of Chloe Zhao’s 2020. On the one hand, after making Hollywood notice her skill with the gripping story of The Rider, she got the keys to the MCU kingdom to direct the next potential franchise of Kevin Feige, The Eternals. And just in case, she also has in her sleeve this indie drama that she wrote and directed beforehand, with two-time Oscar winner Frances McDormand playing a woman who, after losing everything in the Great Recession, embarks on a journey through the American West, living as a van-dwelling modern-day nomad. If Chloe nails these two films, it could be the one-two punch of the decade.
-One Night in Miami: Regina King is living her best life. Following her Oscar win for Best Supporting Actress in If Beale Street Could Talk and the success that came with her lead role in the Watchmen show on HBO, the actress is jumping to a new challenge: directing movies. For her big screen debut, she’s adapting Kemp Powers’ play that dramatizes a real meeting on February 25, 1964, between Muhammad Ali, Malcolm X, Sam Cooke and Jim Brown.
-Over the Moon: After earning praise and Oscar nominations with I Lost My Body and Klaus, Netflix will keep its bet on animated movies with a film directed by the legendary Glen Keane. Who? A classic Disney animator responsible for the design of characters like Ariel, the Beast, Aladdin, Pocahontas, Tarzan and more](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2jRkx2PNVr8), and who recently won an Oscar for Best Animated Short for Dear Basketball, which he co-directed with the late Kobe Bryant. Now, he brings us a musical adventure centered around a Chinese girl who builds a rocket ship and blasts off to the Moon in hopes of meeting a legendary Moon Goddess.
-Passing: It’s always interesting when an actor jumps behind the camera, and Rebecca Hall’s case is no exception. For her directorial debut, Hall chose to adapt Nella Larsen’s acclaimed novel set in Harlem in the 1920s, about two mixed race childhood friends (Ruth Negga and Tessa Thompson) who reunite in adulthood and become obsessed with one another's lives. With a premise that explores tough questions about race and sexuality, it looks like a tricky challenge for a first timer, but it would be more impressive if Hall manages to rise over the challenge.
-Prisoner 760: An interesting part of following the awards circuit is looking at when it's appropriate to talk about touchy subjects in recent history. I’m saying that because this next movie tells the real life tale of Mohamedou Ould Slahi (Tahar Rahim), a man who, despite not being charged or having a set trial, is held in custody at Guantanamo Bay, and turns towards a pair of lawyers (Jodie Foster and Shailene Woodley) to aid him. Based on the famous journal that the man wrote while he was being detained, the movie (that also counts with Benedict Cumberbatch) is directed by Kevin Macdonald who, a long time ago, helped Forest Whitaker win Best Actor for The Last King of Scotland. Could he get back in the race after almost 15 years of movies like State of Play?
-Raya and the Last Dragon: This year, Walt Disney Animation Studios’ bet for the Oscars is a fantasy tale set in a mysterious realm called Kumandra, where a warrior named Raya searches for the last dragon in the world. And that dragon has the voice of Awkwafina. Even though they missed out last Oscars when Frozen II got the cold shoulder by the Academy in Best Animated Feature, this premise looks interesting enough to merit a chance. One more thing: between last year’s Abominable, Over the Moon and this movie, there’s a clear connection of animated movies trying to appeal to Chinese sensibilities (and that sweet box office).
-Rebecca: It’s wild to think that the only time that Alfred Hitchcock made a film that won the Oscar for Best Picture was with 1940’s adaptation of Daphne du Maurier’s psychological thriller novel, more muted and conventional than his more known classics. Now, Ben Wheatley and Netflix are giving the Gothic story a new spin, with Lily James playing the newly married young woman who finds herself battling the shadow of her husband's (Armie Hammer) dead first wife, the mysterious Rebecca. The story is a classic, and we have to see how much weird Wheatley stuff is in the mix.
-Red, White and Water: Between 2011 and 2014, Jennifer Lawrence was everywhere and people loved it. She was America’s sweetheart, the Oscar winner, Katniss Everdeen. But then, everything kinda fell. Those X-Men movies got worse and she looked tired of being in them, her anecdotes got less charming and more pandering to some, she took respectable risks that didn’t pay off with Red Sparrow and Mother!, and some people didn’t like that she said that it wasn’t nice to share private photos of her online. Now, she looks to get back to the Oscar race with a small project funded by A24 and directed by Lila Neugebauer in her film debut, about a soldier who comes back to the US after suffering a traumatic brain injury in Afghanistan. Also, Brian Tyree Henry is in this, and it would be amazing if he got nominated for something.
-Respect: You know what’s a surefire way to get Academy voters’ attention? Play a real singer! Rami Malek took a win last year for playing Freddie Mercury, Renee Zellweger just won the gold after portraying Judy Garland, and now Jennifer Hudson wants more Oscar love. Almost 15 years after taking Best Supporting Actress for her role in Dreamgirls, Hudson will try to get more by playing soul legend Aretha Franklin, in a biopic directed by first timer Liesl Tommy that practically screams “give me the gold”. How am I so sure? Well, see the teaser that they released in December (for a movie that opens in October), and tell me. It will work out better for Hudson than Cats, that’s for sure.
-Soul: Unless they really disappoint (I’m looking at you, The Good Dinosaur, Cars 2 and Cars 3), you can’t have the Oscars without inviting Pixar to the party. This year, they have two projects in the hopes of success. While in a few weeks we’ll see what happens with the fantasy family road trip of Onward, the studio’s biggest bet of the year clearly is the next existential animation written and directed by Pete Docter, who brought Oscar gold to his home with Up and Inside Out. The movie, which centers on a teacher (voice of Jamie Foxx) who dreams of becoming a jazz musician and, just as he’s about to get his big break, ends up getting into an accident that separates his soul from his body, had a promising first trailer, and it also promises a score by Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross, as well as new songs by Jon Batiste. The only downside so far for the marketing was the fact that the trailer reveal led people to notice a suspicious trend involving black characters when they lead an animated movie.
-Tenet: When Leonardo DiCaprio finally touched his Academy Award, an alarm went off in the mind of a portion of Internet users, who have made their next crusade to give themselves to the cause of getting Christopher Nolan some Oscar love. And his next blank check, an action thriller involving espionage and time travel, could pull off the same intersection of popcorn and prestige that made Inception both a box office hit and a critically acclaimed Oscar nominee. It helps to have a cast of impressive names like John David Washington, Elizabeth Debicki and Robert Pattinson, as well as a crew that includes Ludwig Goransson and Hoyte van Hoytema. In other words, if this becomes a hit, this could go for a huge number of nominations.
-The Devil All the Time: As you may have noticed by now, Netflix is leading the charge in possible Oscar projects. Another buzzy movie that comes from them is the new psychological thriller by Antonio Campos, a filmmaker known for delivering small and intimate but yet intense and terrifying dramas like Simon Killer and Christine. Using the novel by Donald Ray Pollock, Campos will follow non-linearly a cast of characters in Ohio between the end of World War II and the beginning of the Vietnam War, with the help of an interesting cast that includes Tom Holland, Sebastian Stan, Robert Pattinson, Mia Wasikowska, Eliza Scanlen, Bill Skarsgard, Jason Clarke and Riley Keough.
-The Eyes of Tammy Faye: After being known as a sketch comedy goofball because of The State, Wet Hot American Summer and Stella, Michael Showalter reinvented himself as a director of small and human dramedies like Hello, My Name is Doris and The Big Sick. For his next project, he’s gonna mix a little bit of both worlds, because he has before him the story of the televangelists Tammy Faye Bakker (Jessica Chastain, who has been really trying to recapture her early ‘10 awards run to no avail) and Jim Bakker (Andrew Garfield, who was previously nominated for Hacksaw Ridge, instead of Silence, because why). With a real life tale that involves Christian theme parks, fraud and conspiracies, this is the kind of loud small movie that Searchlight loves to parade around, especially as an actors showcase (Jojo Rabbit being the most recent example). The first image looks terrifying, by the way.
-The Father: It’s weird to be in the middle of February and say that there’s already a frontrunner for the Best Actor race at the next Oscars. After its premiere in Sundance a couple of weeks ago, every prognosticator pointed in the direction of Anthony Hopkins (recently nominated for Best Supporting Actor in The Two Popes), who delivers a harrowing portrayal of an old man grappling with his age as he develops dementia, causing pain to his beleaguered daughter (recent winner Olivia Colman, who also got praised). With reviews calling it a British answer to Amour (in other words: it’s a hard watch), Florian Zeller’s adaptation of his acclaimed play not only benefits from having Hopkins and Colman together as a selling point, because it was acquired by Sony Pictures Classics, a distributor with experience in getting Academy voters to watch adult movies with heavy themes. If you don’t believe me, watch how they got Julianne Moore a win for Still Alice, as well as recent nominations for Isabelle Huppert for Elle, Glenn Close for The Wife, and Antonio Banderas for Pain and Glory. They know the game, and they are going to hit hard for Hopkins and Colman.
-The French Dispatch: If you saw the trailer, we don’t need to dwell too much on the reasons. On the one hand, we have the style of Wes Anderson, a filmmaker who has become a name in both the critics circle and the casual viewer, with his last two movies (The Grand Budapest Hotel and Isle of Dogs) earning several Oscar nominations, including Best Picture for the one with Gustave H. Then, we have a long cast that goes from the director’s regulars like Bill Murray to new stars like Timothee Chalamet, and also includes people like Benicio del Toro. The only thing that could endanger the Oscar chances for this is that the story, an anthology set around a period comedy with an European riff on The New Yorker, will alienate the average Academy member.
-The Humans: There’s the prestige of a play, and then there’s the prestige of a Tony-winning play. Playwright Stephen Karam now gets to jump to the director’s chair to take his acclaimed 2016 one-act story to the big screen, and A24 is cutting the check. Telling the story of a family that gets together on Thanksgiving to commiserate about life, this adaptation will be led by original performer Jayne Houdyshell (who also won a Tony for her stage performance), who’ll be surrounded by Richard Jenkins, Beanie Feldstein, Amy Schumer, Steven Yeun and June Squibb. If it avoids getting too claustrophobic or stagey for the cinema, it will be a good contender.
-The Last Duel: Always speedy, Ridley Scott is working on his next possible trip to the Oscars. This time, it’s the telling of a true story in 14th-century France, where a knight (Matt Damon) accuses his former friend (Adam Driver) of raping his wife (Jodie Comer), with the verdict being determined by the titular duel. It’s a juicy story, but there was some concern when it seemed that the script was only being written by Damon and Ben Affleck (who’ll also appear in the film). A rape story written by them after the Weinstein revelations… not the best look. But then, it was revealed that they were writing the screenplay with indie figure Nicole Holofcener, who last year was nominated for an Oscar for her script for Can You Ever Forgive Me? Let’s hope that the story is told in a gripping but not exploitative way, and that it doesn’t reduce the role of Comer (who deserves more than some of the movie roles that she’s getting after Killing Eve) to a Hollywood stereotype.
-The Power of the Dog: We have to talk about the queen of the indie world, we have to talk about Jane Campion. More than a decade after her last movie, Bright Star, the Oscar and Palme d’Or winner for The Piano returns with a non-TV project (see Top of the Lake, people) thanks to Netflix, with a period drama centered around a family dispute between a pair of wealthy brothers in Montana, Phil (Benedict Cumberbatch) and George Burbank (Jesse Plemons), after the latter one marries a local widow (Kirsten Dunst). According to the synopsis, “a shocked and angry Phil wages a sadistic, relentless war to destroy her entirely using her effeminate son Peter as a pawn”. Can’t wait to see what that means.
-The Prom: Remember the Ryan Murphy blank check deal with Netflix that I mentioned earlier? Well, another of the projects in the first batch of announcements for the deal is a musical that he’ll direct, adapting the Tony-nominated show about a group of Broadway losers (now played by the one and only Meryl Streep, Nicole Kidman, Andrew Rannells and, uh, James Corden, for some reason) who try to find a viral story to get back in the spotlight, and end up going to a town in Indiana to help a lesbian high school student who has been banned from bringing her girlfriend to the prom. The show has been considered a fun and heartwarming tale of acceptance, so the movie could be an easy pick for an average Academy voter who doesn’t look too hard (and you know that the Golden Globes will nominate the shirt out of this). It’s funny how this comes out the same year than Everybody’s Talking About Jamie, and then it’s not funny realizing that Film Twitter will pit the two movies against each other.
-The Trial of the Chicago 7: After getting a taste of the director’s taste with Molly’s Game, Aaron Sorkin wants more. For his second movie, he’s tackling one of his specialties: a courtroom drama. And this one is a period movie centered around the trial on countercultural activists in the late ‘60s, which immediately attracts a campaign of how “important” this movie is today’s culture. To add the final blow, we have a cast that includes Sacha Baron Cohen, Eddie Redmayne, Yahya Abdul-Mateen II, Jeremy Strong, Joseph Gordon-Levitt, Frank Langella, William Hurt, Michael Keaton and Mark Rylance. If Sorkin can contain himself from going over the top (and with that cast, it would be so easy to surrender to bouts of screaming and winding speeches), this could be one of the top contenders.
-Those Who Wish Me Dead: Having made a good splash in the directorial waters with Wind River, Taylor Sheridan (also known for writing the Sicario movies, the Oscar-nominated Hell or High Water or that Yellowstone show that your uncle raves about on Facebook) returns with yet another modern Western. For this thriller based on the Michael Koryta novel, Angelina Jolie stars as a survival expert in the Montana wilderness who is tasked with protecting a teenager who witnessed a murder, while assassins are pursuing him and a wildfire grows closer.
-Untitled David O. Russell Project: Following the mop epic Joy, that came and went in theaters but still netted a Best Actress nomination for Jennifer Lawrence, the angriest director in Hollywood took a bit of a break (it didn’t help that he tried to do a really expensive show with Amazon starring Robert De Niro and Julianne Moore that fell apart when the Weinstein exposes sank everything). Now, he’s quickly putting together his return to the days of Oscar love that came with stuff like The Fighter, Silver Linings Playbook and American Hustle, with a new movie that is set to star Christian Bale, Margot Robbie and Michael B. Jordan. Even though we don’t know many details (some people are saying the movie is called Amsterdam) except for the fact the movie hasn’t started shooting yet, David is a quick guy, so he’ll get it ready for the fall festival circuit. If there’s one thing that David O. Russell knows (apart from avoid getting cancelled for abusing people like Lily Tomlin, Amy Adams and his niece), it’s to make loud actor showcases.
-Untitled Nora Fingscheidt Project: When Bird Box became one of the biggest hits on Netflix history, the streamer decided to keep itself in the Sandra Bullock business. Sandy’s next project for Ted Sarandos is a drama where she plays a woman who is released from prison after serving time for a violent crime, and re-enters a society that refuses to forgive her past. To get redemption, she searches her younger sister she was forced to leave behind. With the direction of Fingscheidt, who comes from an acclaimed directorial debut with Systemsprenger (Germany’s submission to the last Academy Awards), and a cast that also includes Viola Davis, Vincent D’Onofrio and Jon Bernthal, this will also hopefully try its luck later this year.
-Untitled Paul Thomas Anderson Project: We don’t know if this movie will be ready for the end of the year (although last time, he managed to sneak Phantom Thread under the buzzer and earn several Oscar nominations, including Best Picture), but PTA is apparently gonna start to shoot it soon, with the backing of Focus Features. After several movies with prestige locations and intricate production design, Film Twitter’s Holy Spirit will go back to the San Fernando Valley in the 1970s, to tell the story of a high school student who is also a successful child actor.
-Stillwater: Tom McCarthy’s recent career is certainly puzzling. After delivering the weird lows of The Cobbler, he bounced back with the Best Picture winner that was Spotlight. And following that, he… helped produce the 13 Reasons Why series. And following that… he made Timmy Failure: Mistakes Were Made, a Disney+ original movie. Now, he’s back to the award race with a drama starring Matt Damon, who plays a father who rushes from Oklahoma to France to help his daughter (Abigail Breslin), who is in prison after being suspected for a murder she claims she didn’t commit.
-West Side Story: To close things, we have to see one of the possible big contenders of the season, Steven Spielberg’s adaptation of the iconic musical that translates Romeo and Juliet to the context of a street gang war in 1950s New York. While the decision to adapt again something that has been a classic both in Broadway and in movie theaters almost 60 years ago is a challenge, the idea of Spielberg doing a musical closer to the stage version with Tony Kushner as the writer is too tempting for the average Academy voter, who is already saving a spot in major categories in case Steven nails it in December. However, there’s two question marks. First, how well will Ansel Elgort and newcomer Rachel Zegler stand out in the roles of Tony and Maria? And second, will In the Heights steal some of the thunder of this movie by being, you know, more modern?
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Who is Rocket League's Grandest Grand Finalist? Who really is the best LAN Boi? And other various trivia

I started wondering earlier this season who had been to the most grand finals - across all events, in and out of the RLCS - and who had the best record? Who is that cornerstone - that most reliable person to get you to the finals and then, to win?
And so - because I have poor impulse control - I decided to actually go figure that out.
Here's the spreadsheet I compiled if you want to check it out - analysis of it will be below with a TLDR at the end for general conclusions.
Okay. Boring stuff first though -

What did you do?

So the first step was to get the data and to decide what counted and what didn't. I tried to come up with something manageably broad but minimally arbitrary, so I went to Liquipedia, threw every event since launch that was classified as either a Premier or Major tournament which had an actual grand final into excel, and used the rosters listed on the events for the top two teams.
This means that I didn't include any 1v1 events like Twelve Titans or the Salt Mine and it also means that some smaller tournaments like The Ting Open or the initial rounds of the Rival Esports: The Climb event even though I had originally intended on including them.
It also means that events like RLRS or Oceanic League Play were not included because they are just round-robin competitions without a finals and the promotion relegation tournament which isn't a true double elimination tournament. There had to be a final match where the winner placed 1st and the loser placed 2nd.
I took this data set and sorted the players by number of times their names appeared on the page, and how many times they were on the winning side. I labeled each event as either Regional or International and as either Online or LAN and also gathered data within those specific conditions (how do players perform on LAN? Who is most successful internationally?)
There were even some international online events from the early days of Rocket League (the MLG Pro and RLC Pro tournaments specifically - not done anymore because of the ping issues) as well as several 2v2 Universal Open Results were included based on how Liquipedia classifies their events.
I tried to note these visually in the data in the relevant columns in the event someone felt they should be excluded. Here's the color code:
Dark Green - 2 appearances in 2v2 grandfinalsLight Green - 1 appearance in 2v2 grandfinalsOrange - 2 appearances in online international grandfinalsYellow - 1 appearance in online international grandfinals
And with that let's get to the fun stuff - just an absolute barrage of meaningless stats.

What Did You Learn? (Overall Leaders)

A lot actually.
For starters, my assumption going in was that the top three players were going to be Turbopolsa, Kaydop, and Kuxir.
Instead, my top two were flipped and Kuxir wasn't even in the top five:
ALL GRAND FINALS
Player Appearances Wins
Kaydop 19 10
Turbopolsa 17 12
GarrettG 16 8
ViolentPanda 14 8
Fireburner 12 5
Kuxir was in a 4 way tie for 10th with 9 wins, just after Torsos/JSTN with 11 and Squishy/Gimmick/ with 10.
Turns out that there just weren't as many events in the early days of Rocket League for the legacy of Flipside to keep pace with the Dig Dynasty (something we'll see more of as we go), and even though Kuxir is still an excellent player - it's been longer than I remembered since he was on top.
44% of his grandfinals were shared with M1k3rules who left the team in August of 2016 and 88% of his grandfinals were shared with Markydooda who left the team in January of 2018.
Now lets start looking at overall winrate - What stands out?
Best: Jake is the ONLY player with a 100% winrate in grand finals on more than three appearances. (7/7)
Of all the players with at least one grandfinal loss, Torsos has the best winrate - 10/11 - immediately after him though is Drippay with 8/9.
Interestingly, Drippay hasn't made it to a grandfinal since leaving the Chiefs to play in North America. Maybe now that these two are teamed up together, we'll start to see this legendary success continue.
Worst: There is a six way tie for most grandfinal appearances without wins - Chicago, Julz, Kia, Mognus, Plitz, Turtle - all at 0/3
Of all the players with at least one grandfinal win, CJCJ has the worst winrate - 1/7

International Results:

As soon as you filter out regional results, the parity between the DIG Dynasty and other elite players vanishes. GarretG and Fireburner drop by more than half. The OG Chiefs squad disappears from the list entirely. There are 14 players with between 4 and 6 international grand finals appearances - there are only three above 7 and all three of them are in the double digits.
INTERNATIONAL GRAND FINALS
Player Appearances Wins
Kaydop 13 5
Turbopolsa 12 7
ViolentPanda 11 5
GarrettG 7 3
JSTN 6 2
Gimmick 6 5
Squishy 6 5
Kuxir 6 4
Looking at wins specifically, it's clear that not only is he the four time, but Turbopolsa is the winningest player in Rocket League history with 7 international grand final wins.
After him, the other two of the DIG Dynasty (Kaydop, ViolentPanda) and the front two of the Cloud 9 roster (Squishy, Gimmick) are tied with 5.
Interestingly though, all four of them have 1 apperance and 1 win from 2v2 results in the Universal Open, which if factored out would leave them tied with Torment and Kuxir at 4 (though one of Kuxir's is from the MLG Pro online tournament) followed by GarrettG at 3.
The obvious takeaway for me is that these nine players stand head and shoulders above the rest of scene in ways that some of their peers just don't.
Funny enough, as a result of having been to so many international grand finals, no one has lost more grand finals than the old Dignitas boys - Kaydop has 8 losses, ViolentPanda has 6, and Turbo has 5 - and after them, it's a three way tie between the old NRG squad of GarrettG, JSTN, and Fireburner with 4.
Best: No player has a 100% win rate on international LANs on more than one appearance.
However, among players with at least one lost, the Cloud9 boys are the most reliable bet in International Grand Finals - Gimmick, Squishy, and Torment have only lost once on final stage. Ever.
After them you have to get through Kuxir (75%), Remkoe, Kronovi, Miztik (66.7%), and Markydooda (60%) before you find someone from the Dig Dynasty again with Turbo's 58.3%.
Granted - no one with a better win rate than Turbo has won more than he's lost so to me, it's the most impressive number on the board.
Worst: Chicago and Mognus are the only two players without a win on more than one appearance in an international grandfinal.
Of the players with at least one win, Fireburner has the lowest winrate with (1/5)
What if we expand the scope to LANs in general - does anything stand out?
When we include regional LANs into the mix, the OG Alpha Sydney/Chiefs Esports roster skyrockets to the top. Jake, Drippay, and Torsos each boast a 100% win rate in LAN grandfinals with 5, 6, and 7 wins respectively. They are only players with a 100% win rate on more than two appearances.

Online Results:

When you look at just online grand finals (which are almost all strictly within your region with the exception of the MLG Pro and RLC Pro tournaments in early Rocket League), there's a little bit of a shuffle that happens.
ONLINE GRAND FINALS
Player Appearances Wins
GarrettG 8 4
Fireburner 7 4
Kaydop 6 5
Kuxir 5 3
Markydooda 5 3
Turbopolsa 5 5
JSTN 5 3
Somewhat surprisingly, Turbopolsa and ViolentPanda both boast 100% winrates (5/5 and 3/3 respectively) and are the only players with more than two wins to have that consistency.
Given that, it should be unsurprising that the next highest win rate is Kaydop with 5/6 - the only other player with as many online wins as Turbo.
​
Additionally if you look at what percentage of a player's Grand Final wins come from Online tournaments, you start to see why NRG was perceived to be an "online team" before Turbo joined. Every NRG player (Sadjunior, Jacob, Fireburner, GarrettG, and JSTN) all have at least 50% of their wins from online tournaments.
Sadjunior is one of four players (Maestro, CJCJ, and M1k3Rules) to have 100% of their wins come from online tournaments on at least three appearances - a stat that seems most damning for CJCJ, of the four, imo.
If you look at online wins compared to total wins, Fireburner's got 4/5 grand final wins online. Jacob 3/4, JSTN 3/5, and GarrettG 4/8
Before Turbo joined the team, JSTN would have been 2/2 and GarrettG would have been 3/5.
And lastly, what happens if you look at the difference between someone's win rate on LAN vs. their win rate online? Well a few interesting names show up when you narrow it to people with at least 2 grandfinal appearances online and 2 on LAN.
WINRATE DIFFERENCE ON LAN VS ONLINE
Player Win Rate Difference
Remkoe 41%
Drippay 33%
Torsos 25%
Gimmick 19%
Squishy 19%
... ...
Rizzo -25%
Scrub Killa -25%
JSTN -26.7%
CJCJ -33.3%
Express -33.3%
Fireburner -37.1%
Turbo -41.7%
Kaydop -44.9%
Shadey -50%
ViolentPanda 54.6%
Here positive numbers imply being better on LAN and negative numbers imply being better online.
Players not shown in the table with non-zero values are (in order of descending improvement): paschy (16.7%), Miztik (16.7%), Kuxir (15%), Kamii (15%), Torment (13.3%), and Markydooda (6.7%), Jknaps (-10%), FairyPeak (-10%), and Montyconnor (-16.7%).
The conspicuous information from this is:
The DIG Dynasty have been and continue to be dominant forces in their region and it's only the best of the best that have ever been able to make them blink, and lately, that only seems to include their own opposing rosters.
It's gotta really suck going to LAN against Torsos, Drippay, or Jake that four different OCE players who have never teamed with them have such high online differentials. Latency must be the only thing that lets that region have a chance against them.
And finally, if Remkoe or the Cloud9 boys ever manage to get back to a grandfinal on LAN, I know who I'm putting my money on.

Oh Look! It's a grain of salt!

It is worth acknowledging that this is simplifying or ignoring a lot of factors such as that some tournaments have 32 teams and some have 4 or that it's more convenient for the OCE region to have regular LANs than NA or EU or that many players who made a couple deep runs have probably had lower average placements than players who are good enough to consistently get to second place.
To account for these, I'd need to probably come up more explicit criteria about what grand finals counted or didn't and also to keep track of placement per attendance, not just the grand finals specifically. This information, as is, isn't terribly useful, but it was fun and I felt like sharing it. I recognize that there probably won't be too many people who read the entire thing and that's okay - I just hope a couple of people find some of it interesting.

TLDR - GENERAL CONCLUSIONS

If you want to get to the grand finals, nobody is better at it than the ex-Dignitas boys. Not by a mile. Even before the came together and even still afterwards.
If you want to win the grand finals once you get there, make sure Cloud9 loses by the quarterfinals because they don't lose grandfinals often. Especially on LAN. Considering that they didn't even show up in the RLCS until Season 4, their legacy is astounding.
No one has or probably ever will again have the regional dominance that the OG Alpha Sydney squad has had over their region and the fact that Torsos and Drippay have teamed up again should scare everyone in that region hoping to make a name for themselves.
There is a reason OGs like Remkoe, Kuxir, and GarrettG are still around while Stocki or Lachinio or Sikii aren't - even as someone who has a lot of nostalgia for those guys. This is a game of inches and the folks who are good enough at it to still be around as legitimate threats more than four years later (with four years of results to show for it) deserve all the recognition they can get for consistently coming out on top.
Edit - oh and Torsos is best LAN Boi. Somehow forgot to say that.
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