Proven Roulette - Betting Martingale system - Labouchère ...
The Martingale Betting System Explained
Ultimate Gambling Guide for GTA Online - odds, probabilities, and optimal strategies
This is not mine, the creator of this is u/enderpiet Since the Diamond Casino update, I have seen a large number of 12-year-olds posting Blackjack memes on this sub. As a parent, this has me very worried. On top of that, I have seen some of the most trustworthy GTA Youtubers giving flawed gambling advice, which can have damaging impact on their gullible audiences. So that's why I decided to write this up, to educate everyone on the subject, so there will be no more misunderstandings. (2020 Update down at the bottom.) If you're one of those Youtubers that wants to use this information in a video, feel free to do so. The more people (especially kids) that become educated about gambling, the better. But then also please go back and review your own work, and delete or edit the videos that are giving out the wrong advice, like where you're saying you have "a good strategy for making money with roulette", or some other nonsense that I've heard this week. Delete that please. Before I get into the individual games, I need to discuss a few concepts first, that will make understanding the rest a lot easier. Expected return and variance A game like Roulette or Slots has a fixed expected return on your bets. This is a percentage that you have no way of influencing. Say you are flipping a coin against a friend, and you both put up $1. The winner gets the pot. Since the odds are even at 50%, in the long run, you will expect to break even. Your expected return is 100% of your bet. But imagine if you would play this coin flipping game in a casino against the house. On the "house rules" listed at the table they would probably say that you would only get 95 cents back for every win, while you are forfeiting a dollar on every loss. Would you still play? Sounds stupid to do so, but still, everybody does it. Every bet they place on Roulette, every coin they put into a Slot machine, is based on the same concept. Those few cents they take on every bet are their profit margin, and has paid for all the Vegas lights, the Mirage volcanoes, and the Bellagio fountains. Make no mistake - casino gambling games are not designed to make you lose, because sure, you can get lucky on a single night, but they are designed to make them win. That's the beauty of it. They can both exist at the same time. Too many people that don't see how this works, are just destined for disaster. Just because you went on a lucky streak and won 8 games out of 10, does not mean that flipping coins is a profitable game, or that choosing tails is a winning strategy. Always be aware of the house edge, your true chances of winning, and just realize that you got lucky. There is no such thing as a strategy in flipping a coin that will give you a higher expected return, so it's just pure gambling, just like Slots and Roulette. Most casino games are made in such a way, that your expected return is a little under 100%. This means that from every dollar bet at the tables, the casino expects to keep a few cents. For individual players, results may vary. Some will win, most will lose. But for the house, it doesn't matter. They take millions of bets each day, so for them, the expected average works out a lot sooner. In short: the house always wins. When looking at the house edge, we're talking about the expected long-term result, based on the game's house rules. But for a player, it can take literally tens of thousands of hands or spins before you also reach this average number. Until that time, you can experience huge upswings and downswings, that are the result of nothing but short-term luck, which is called variance. Some games and some bets have a much higher variance than others, which means your actual results will differ enormously from what you're expected to be at. Take for example betting on red/black at the Roulette table. This is a low-variance proposition, because it has a high percentage chance of occurring, and a low payout. Contrast this with betting single numbers in Roulette, which only win once every 38 spins on average. This bet has a much higher variance, meaning you can easily hit a dry spell, and not hit anything for 200 bets in a row, or you can see a single number hit three times in five consecutive spins. This is not a freak occurrence in high-variance bets. Even though the expected return in both these bets is exactly the same, there's a huge difference in variance, causing massive differences in short-term results, which can go both ways. You need to be aware of this, before you decide what types of bets you are comfortable with placing. Gamblers' Fallacy Another thing to realize, is that each individual game, hand, or spin, is completely independent from the one(s) before it, and after it. Gamblers tend to believe, that the chance of a certain outcome is increased, based on previous results. The most famous example comes from the Casino de Monte Carlo, where the Roulette wheel managed to land on black 26 times in a row. Gamblers lost many millions during that streak, all frantically betting on red, believing that the odds were in favor of the wheel coming out on red, after producing so many blacks. This is not true. Each round is completely independent, and the odds are exactly the same. You will hear people say things like a Blackjack table being "hot" or "cold", which is completely superstitious, and should be ignored. The exception was when Blackjack was being dealt from a shoe. It made card counting possible. But with the introduction of shuffle machines, and continuous shuffling like is being used in GTA, this no longer exists. This is also why "chasing your losses" is a very bad idea. After being on a losing streak for some time, many gamblers believe that now it's their turn to start winning. So they will often increase their bet size, believing that when their predicted winning streak comes around, they will win back their losses, and more. The reality of it, more often than not, is that people will indeed start playing higher and higher limits, until they are completely broke. Nobody is ever "due for a win". There is never a guarantee that you're about to start winning. In fact, the opposite is more likely to be true. You are, after all, in a casino. Betting systems Some people like to think that they have a fool-proof betting system, like the Martingale system. Simply increase or even double your bet when you lose, and keep doing that until you win. In theory, this system will always win. So that's why table limits were introduced, and where the system fails. If you start at the Roulette table, playing red/black, with a small 750 chip wager, and just double your bet every time you lose, you only have to lose 6 times in a row, before you will be betting the table limit of 48,000, just to get that 750 chip profit. Sure, you can go on all evening without this happening, winning 750 chips each time, but this losing streak only has to happen once, and you're bust. Any betting system like this is ill-advised, because you are hugely increasing your so-called "risk of ruin", and that's what we were trying to avoid. And even if your starting bet is only 100 chips, after only nine straight losses, and nine doubled bets, you are betting the table limit at 50,000 chips. If you lose that bet, you're 100,000 chips in the hole, with no way to recover that with your 100 chip base wager. So don't believe anyone that says this is the perfect system to always win in the casino. Sooner or later they will understand why they were wrong, when they're asking you for a loan. Set your limits BEFORE you start playing One final point before we get into the games, a general tip for people that head out to play: money management. Just like in real life, before you go to the casino, decide on a maximum amount that you are WILLING TO LOSE. Bet small enough, so that amount can last you through the entire evening, and you will not be tempted to run to the ATM to continue playing. Considering GTA money, some people will be comfortable losing 1% of their GTA bank balance, some people will be comfortable with gambling away 5% of their total GTA savings. It's up to you what you can handle. Decide for yourself where it will start to hurt, and don't cross that line. But whatever number you decide on, as soon as you lost that amount, get up and walk away. Don't chase your losses, stick to your limits, and accept that this has not been your day. There is always another game tomorrow. Always agree with yourself on a simple stop-loss rule, how much you would want to lose at most, and simply stop playing when you get there. Same goes for winning. You can decide on a number, how much profit you would like to take away from the casino. You can go on a hot streak and be up half a million in a short period of time, but if you would continue to play longer, looking for more, chances are that you're going to lose it all back. Most people are happy with doubling their daily casino budget, for example. Others are looking for 10 bets profit in Blackjack. Whatever you choose, when you hit that number, you can stop playing and bank your profits, or you can continue playing if you're still enjoying the games, but then only just play minimum bet sizes. Then you're just playing for fun, not for money. You've already made your profit, so simply keep it in your pocket, and don't risk losing it again. Either way, decide on what your money management strategy will be, and STICK TO IT. Casino games in GTA Online Now, I'm going to dive into the games that you can find at the Diamond casino, ordered from worst to best. 6) Slots Generally the rule is this: the less strategy a game has, the worse it is for the player. And with slots, this is definitely the case. The only influence you have, is choosing what type of machine you're going to play. Basically, there are two types of slot machines: -high frequency, low payout slots -low frequency, high payout slots In the first type, there is no huge (progressive) jackpot on offer, just your average selection of prizes that don't go up to crazy amounts. This will result in a player having many more spins resulting in a win. The amounts that you win on the bigger prizes, will be smaller, but they do come around more often. This type of slot machine has a lower variance, which means that your money should last you longer, winning many smaller prizes along the way to keep you going. The second type of slot machine lures you in with the temptation of a huge jackpot prize. Even though the long-term expected return on these machines is the same as the previous type, the prize distribution is hugely different. The large jackpot prize weighs heavily on the scale of expected return, but the chance of it hitting is extremely small. This results in a much higher variance on this type of machine. Usually your money will go down very fast, because the smaller prizes are less rewarding than on the other type of machine. At the Diamond, the info screen says the player return at slots is set at 98.7%. This means that, on average, for every maximum bet of 2,500 chips, you expect to lose 32.5 chips. This might not seem like a lot, but the danger of slots is that the game is extremely fast. You can spin about once every 6 seconds, which would result in an expected LOSS of about 20,000 chips per hour of playing. But again, in this long-term expected number, the large jackpot awards are also factored in, and as long as you don't hit those big prizes, you'll see your money go down a lot faster. In any case, thank heavens the max bet is only set at 2,500, or else we would see more players go bankrupt at alarming rates. Optimal strategy for slots: There is none. Because after betting, you have no more influence over the outcome. The only choices you have, is what type of machine you want to play at, and how much money you are going to risk. And those are all personal preference. As long as you stick to your loss limits, as discussed above, there's no harm in having a go every once in a while, hoping to get a lucky hit. Just realize that you don't have a high chance of scoring a big win, so as soon as you do, get up and walk away. 5) Roulette Roulette is also a game where you have no influence over the outcome. There is zero skill involved. You place your bet, and that's it. In traditional French roulette, a table has only the single-zero, but of course, for American casinos that wasn't enough of a house edge, so they simply doubled their profits by adding a second zero. The house edge was increased from 1/37 to 1/19, which is huge. This makes playing on a double-zero roulette table by definition a sucker's play. The payouts scale evenly, which means that a bet on a single number, and a bet on half of the numbers, and everything in between, yields the same expected return. The only difference, again, being the variance that you are willing to subject yourself to. The player return for double-zero Roulette for all bets is 94.74%. Except for the 5-number bet, which can only be made by placing a bet on the two top rows that contain 0, 00, 1, 2 and 3. The expected return on this bet is lower: 92.1%. This is because it only pays out 6-1. Why? Well, the number 36 isn't divisible by 5, so the greedy people that came up with double-zero Roulette had to round it off someway, and as expected, it wasn't going to be in the players' favor.Just remember that that 5-number bet is the worst bet at the table, and should be avoided. All other possible bets have the same expected return. So it really doesn't matter how you spread your bets, if you bet only one chip, or if you litter the entire table with a bucketload of chips. Each chip you put out there, has the same expected return, so there is no strategy that will improve your long-term results. Assuming that you're betting the maximum table amount of 50,000 chips, you will be looking at an expected loss of about 2,630 chips per spin. Considering that a round takes about 45 seconds to complete, your expected LOSS at the GTA Roulette tables will be around 200,000 chips per hour of playing. Optimal strategy for double-zero roulette: Stay away. Stay far away. 4) Three Card Poker With Three Card Poker, we come across the first game where there is actually some strategy involved. You get to look at your cards, and then decide if you want to fold, and surrender your ante, or double your bet. Additionally, you can choose to place a side bet on "Pair Plus", which offers progressive payouts. There are some websites out there that ran all the numbers with computer simulations, and even though I would like to quote the source here, these websites are understandably littered to the max with online casino ads, so that's why I have decided against doing that. Optimal strategy for Three Card Poker: For this game you only have to remember one strategy rule: Always bet on any high card queen-six-four or better, and fold any high card queen-six-three or lower. That's it. Just don't forget to double check if you're not folding a straight or a flush, and you'll be fine. This strategy will result in an expected return of 96.63%. The Pair Plus sidebet, with the payout table that is used at the Diamond casino, gives you an expected return of 97.68%, which is actually a bit better than the main ante bet. So by playing both wagers, you're reducing your expected losses per bet, but since you're betting more, you're also increasing your expected loss per hour. My advice would obviously be to not play this game at all, but if you do, put as much of your bet as possible on the Pair Plus, while making our Ante bet as small as you can. To be able to compare it to the other games at the Diamond, let's stay on that 50,000 maximum wager, meaning making your ante bet 35,000, and your pair plus bet 15,000, if the table would allow it. This results in an expected loss of about 1,525 chips per hand, and with a round taking about 45 seconds, this adds up to an expected LOSS of around 120,000 chips per hour of playing. In comparison, if you would only play the ante bet for 50,000 per hand, you expect to lose 1,685 chips per hand, which means an expected LOSS of about 135,000 chips per hour. So the more out of that 50,000 wager you can put on the "Pair Plus" sidebet, the better. Even though it may be fun to try out this game for a bit, since there's only one simple strategy rule to follow, you'll soon find yourself robotically grinding down your bankroll until it has vaporized. You're not missing out on anything if you skip these tables, there is no real challenge. Just like with Roulette and Slots, if you want to try it out nonetheless, you can just bet the minimum amounts and only play for fun, so it won't matter if you win or lose. 3) Blackjack Blackjack is the most complicated game by far. Simply because the player has to make a series of decisions, which will largely decide the outcome. Luckily, there is such a thing as an optimal strategy, which will be outlined below. However, the strategy is also dependent on the house rules. These not only affect your expected return, but in some places also your decisions. Here are the house rules at the Diamond casino: -The game uses 4 standard decks, and a continuous shuffle. -Blackjack pays 3 to 2, dealer checks for early blackjack. -No insurance offered, no surrender. -Dealer stands on soft 17. -Double down on any two cards. -Player can split only once, but doubling after split is allowed. -Seven-Card Charlie. Under these rules, and following the "basic strategy" chart, your expected return at Blackjack is a shade under 99.6%, which is extremely good for a casino game, that's why Blackjack should be your table game of choice. But it comes at a price: you are going to have to memorize the relatively complicated strategy chart, or at least stick it to your monitor until you have it in your head. But in case you ever stumble into a real-life casino, you won't regret having this table memorized, so I would definitely advise you to work on that. The strategy chart might look complicated at first, but you will be able to notice certain patterns. Your decisions are mainly based on the dealer's upcard, which is basically divided into a weak card (2 to 6), and a strong card (7 to ace). When a dealer shows a strong card, you will be hitting more often with the risk of going bust, but when a dealer shows a weak card, you're not taking that risk, and you will be standing more, but also doubling and splitting more. You want to increase your bets when the odds are in your favor, and get out cheap when they're not. But it also helps to take some time to think about why a certain advice is given. For example, why does it say that you always have to split two eights, even against an ace. Well, that's because two eights equals 16, which is the worst total you can have. It's better to split them up, and give yourself a chance of finding a 17, 18 or 19 with the next card. Once you see the logic in that, you'll have one less thing to memorize. The playing advice in the basic strategy chart is a result of computer simulations that ran all possible outcomes against each other, and produced the most profitable decision for each situation. So you can't go wrong following it. Optimal strategy for Blackjack with Seven-Card Charlie The added house rule of Seven-Card Charlie, adds a small advantage for the player, and it does influence a few strategy decisions. For example, you might have a 14 with 6 cards, against the dealer's 5 upcard. Normally this would be an automatic stand, but if you're only one card away from the Seven-Card Charlie, meaning an instant win for the player, regardless of the dealer's hand, it turns it into a hit. Here's the most optimal strategy chart to follow for the Diamond Casino house rules:https://prnt.sc/olct6g You'll see that two fives are missing from the chart, and that's because you never split them. You treat them as a regular 10. You also never split tens. Just stand on 20. If you follow this strategy religiously, even with a maximum wager of 50,000 chips, you only expect to lose about 215 chips per hand, and with rounds taking about 30 seconds, that amounts to an expected LOSS of 26,000 chips per hour, which is only half a bet. A small price to pay for an hour of entertainment. But since the expected return is so extremely close to 100%, you will see more positive short-term results than with other games. But obviously it can also swing the other way. Again, this is supposed to be the game where your money lasts you the longest, but always set your loss and win limits before you sit down. That rule simply always applies. Still, even with optimal strategies applied, all these games are expected to lose you money in the long run. So betting any kind of large amounts is not advised. If you simply want to enjoy playing these games, there's nothing wrong with betting a minimal amount. Playing these games for a longer period of time will already cost you money anyway, since your daily property fees will still be charged while you're playing in the GTA casino. As long as you can play for fun, there's nothing wrong, but when you see yourself betting insane chunks of your entire bank balance to try to recoup some unfortunate losses, you're doing it wrong. As the commercials in Britain all correctly say: when the fun stops, stop. 2) Virtual Horse Racing Now onto the good stuff. I ran some numbers, and I believe Rockstar has made a mistake with the horse racing game. Because as it stands, and if I read the numbers correctly, this game is actually profitable for the player. You can actually make money with this, at least, until Rockstar figures out their mistake and patches it. If anyone wants to jump into the math and double check this to make sure, please do so. I will add any corrections to this post. This is one of those "to good to be true" things, so I keep thinking that I might have overlooked something. So please verify it if you can. The setup is this. There is a pool of 100 horses, each with their own attached payout. These are divided into 3 groups, ranked by their odds. From each group, 2 horses are randomly selected to provide a pool of six runners for you to bet on. Now it's not an actual race you're looking at. You are looking at a raffle. This is important to realize. Each horse gets awarded a certain number of raffle tickets. The favorites get awarded more tickets than the underdogs, and therefore, have a higher chance of winning. If this distribution works like it does in the real-life casinos, then the raffle tickets are awarded according to the betting odds. Example 1: imagine a race with 3 runners, all have 2/1 odds, representing a 33.3% chance of winning. (Because 2/1 means 2 AGAINST 1, so 3 total.) In this case, each horse gets one third of the raffle tickets, giving them an equal chance to win. Example 2: imagine a race with 3 runners, one has 1/1 odds (or EVENS), representing a 50% chance of winning, and the other two horses are marked up as 3/1, with a 25% chance of winning. The favorite gets half the tickets, the other two get a quarter of the tickets each. A ticket is drawn, and you'll have a winner. It doesn't matter in this game which horse you bet on, because the expected return is always the same: 100% or break-even, for the above examples. Now, what happens if the percentages don't exactly add up to 100%? They must add up to 100%, because there will always be a winner. And only one winner. So when this is the case, the actual winning chances of the horses are adjusted to meet the 100% requirement, using their payout odds to determine the scale. So, if the represented percentages add up to more than 100%, the actual winning chances of the runners will be DECREASED, resulting in all bets becoming losing propositions for the players. Example: In a 6-horse race, all runners are listed at 4/1, representing a 20% chance. Only with six runners that amounts to 120%. So all chances are scaled down by 1/6th, to end up at 100%. This means your horse's chances are reduced from 20% to 16.67%, turning it into a losing bet: 5 times you will lose your bet, and 1 time you will win, but only get 4 bets back in this instance, instead of 5. A losing bet in the long run. This is the type of odds that you find in regular casinos, with fields as large as 15 runners to bet on, where the assumed winning chances always add up to more than 100%, therefore are decreased for all runners, resulting in a house edge. But in GTA Online's Inside Track, there are other scenarios, because of the small field, and the way that they are put together. In some cases, the represented percentages when added up, are LESS than 100%, meaning that the actual winning chances of all runners, are INCREASED. This creates profitable bets for the players, because in the long run, you're expecting to win more money than you lose. This is a gambler's dream, pure and simple. So, according to the in-game information, the three groups of horses are divided as follows: -Favorites: EVENS to 5-1 -Outsiders: 6-1 to 15-1 -Underdogs: 16-1 to 30-1 Let's take the two most extreme examples to show what's happening. The worst possible field to bet on: two runners at EVENS, two runners at 6-1, and two runners at 16-1. EVENS represents a 50% chance, 6-1 is 14.29%, and 16-1 is 5.88%. Add those up and you land on a total of 140.34%. This means that the actual winning chances of the horses are decreased by 28.75% (to get that 140% down to 100%), which makes betting on this field extremely unwise. A horse at EVENS will only come in as a winner 35.63% of the time, instead of 50%, a horse at 6-1 will only win 10.18% of the time, and an underdog at 16-1 will only win 4.19% of the time. The expected return on a bet on any of the horses in this field is only 71.26%, so a maximum bet of 10,000 chips on any of these horses holds an expected LOSS of 2,875 chips. These returns are the same, because the winning chances are scaled equally, according to the payout numbers. So it really doesn't matter which horse you bet on, in the long run, you expect the same results. But as explained before, it does influence variance, and therefore your short-term result, which can swing both ways. But now, the best possible field to bet on: two runners at 5-1, two runners at 15-1, and two runners at 30-1. Odds at 5-1 represents a winning chance of 16.67%, 15-1 odds means 6.25% chance, and 30-1 odds means a 3.23% chance of winning. Add these six horses together, and you only get 52.285%. This means that, to get from 52% to 100%, the actual winning chances of these horses will be almost doubled! Multiplied by 1.91 to be exact. So the 5-1 favorites will now win 31.88% of the time, instead of 16.67%, the 15-1 runners will win 11.95% of the time, and the underdogs at 30-1 odds will still win 6.17% of the time. When betting on this field, the expected return on your bet is 191.25%! This means that a max bet of 10,000 chips will result in an expected PROFIT of 9,125 chips. This is printing money, if there ever was such a thing. Optimal strategy for Virtual Horse racing So all you have to do, is only bet high on the games where you have an expected positive return, and bet the absolute minimum on the games where your expected return is negative. Or back out of the racing game to refresh the field. If you don't have a way to quickly add up all the percentages, and until somebody shows up here with a neatly formatted table, just use a few general rules of thumb: -Always bet the maximum on a race with favorites at 2/1 and 3/1 or higher in it. -Simply skip all races with two favorites at EVENS in it, and at EVENS and 2/1. Or bet the minimum, if you can't skip or refresh the field. -To decide if you should play races with other favorite combinations EVENS and 3/1, EVENS and 4/1, EVENS and 5/1, or two favorites at 2/1, the payouts on the other four runners determine whether or not it's profitable to play them. The results of betting on these fields vary from an expected 1,330 chip loss (worst-case) to an expected 1,680 chip win (best-case), with a max bet of 10,000 chips. But if you're not looking for another strategy chart, you might just want to skip these borderline cases, and just cherry pick the best ones, which are easy to recognize, and with which you can never go wrong. It's difficult to put a number on an expected win-rate, because it all depends on which fields you get presented with, but it's not unreasonable to state that you can maintain a steady win-rate of around 200,000 chips per hour, with about 50 seconds per race. Remember, you're not trying to win every race. You're trying to win the most money per hour. So don't sweat it when you bet on a 4/1 favorite, and lose a couple of races in a row. It will still be more profitable in the long run. You have the math on your side. To reduce negative variance, always bet on the favorite, when betting on profitable fields. We're not gambling anymore, we're grinding out a steady profit. We want to keep the swings to a minimum. I contacted Rockstar support to verify if this is indeed how it works, but the only reply I got after 6 weeks is that they were "looking into it". User u/Garsant made a useful Excel-worksheet, available for you to download, where you can quickly type in the payouts on the horses, to see if it produces a profitable bet or not. You can find it in his post here: https://www.reddit.com/gtaonline/comments/ekp8na/gta_online_inside_track_odd_calculato 1) Wheel of Fortune The number one profitable casino game in GTA Online is obviously the Wheel of Fortune, because it costs you nothing to play. Unfortunately, you only get one free spin per day, but it holds great value, so make sure you do it. With a chance to win a super car, vehicle discounts, expensive mystery prizes (which also can be vehicles), and a lot of cash and chips, the expected return on a single spin is around $100,000 in value. So don't forget your daily spin, it's definitely worth your time. 2020 Update: As of the Diamond Casino Heist update, the Inside Track horse racing is confirmed to still be as profitable as outlined above.The only thing that seems to be changed, is that you can't refresh the field anymore by backing out of the screen. This does affect your hourly rate in a negative way, but does not change the fact that this game has a huge positive expected return, and should be your go-to when you're trying to take money from the house, without having Lester's nagging voice in your ear. That should also be worth something. And with that, I conclude my 5,000 word essay on gambling in GTA. Questions, comments, feel free to add your input to this guide. Cliffs: -Gambling games should only be played for fun, not for big money. You should expect to lose in the long run. The house always wins. -A casino game doesn't have a memory, and betting systems don't work. -Set your limits before you start, how much you are willing to lose or win, and then walk away when you get there. -Don't play slots, roulette, or three card poker. -Only play blackjack following a basic strategy chart (https://prnt.sc/olct6g). -Inside Track betting can be played profitably, if you only bet on fields WITHOUT a heavy favorite. -Wheel of Fortune is always your best bet, because it's a free bet.
Ultimate Gambling Guide for GTA Online - odds, probabilities, and optimal strategies
Since the Diamond Casino update, I have seen a large number of 12-year-olds posting Blackjack memes on this sub. As a parent, this has me very worried. On top of that, I have seen some of the most trustworthy GTA Youtubers giving flawed gambling advice, which can have damaging impact on their gullible audiences. So that's why I decided to write this up, to educate everyone on the subject, so there will be no more misunderstandings. (2020 Update down at the bottom.) If you're one of those Youtubers that wants to use this information in a video, feel free to do so. The more people (especially kids) that become educated about gambling, the better. But then also please go back and review your own work, and delete or edit the videos that are giving out the wrong advice, like where you're saying you have "a good strategy for making money with roulette", or some other nonsense that I've heard this week. Delete that please. Before I get into the individual games, I need to discuss a few concepts first, that will make understanding the rest a lot easier. Expected return and variance A game like Roulette or Slots has a fixed expected return on your bets. This is a percentage that you have no way of influencing. Say you are flipping a coin against a friend, and you both put up $1. The winner gets the pot. Since the odds are even at 50%, in the long run, you will expect to break even. Your expected return is 100% of your bet. But imagine if you would play this coin flipping game in a casino against the house. On the "house rules" listed at the table they would probably say that you would only get 95 cents back for every win, while you are forfeiting a dollar on every loss. Would you still play? Sounds stupid to do so, but still, everybody does it. Every bet they place on Roulette, every coin they put into a Slot machine, is based on the same concept. Those few cents they take on every bet are their profit margin, and has paid for all the Vegas lights, the Mirage volcanoes, and the Bellagio fountains. Make no mistake - casino gambling games are not designed to make you lose, because sure, you can get lucky on a single night, but they are designed to make them win. That's the beauty of it. They can both exist at the same time. Too many people that don't see how this works, are just destined for disaster. Just because you went on a lucky streak and won 8 games out of 10, does not mean that flipping coins is a profitable game, or that choosing tails is a winning strategy. Always be aware of the house edge, your true chances of winning, and just realize that you got lucky. There is no such thing as a strategy in flipping a coin that will give you a higher expected return, so it's just pure gambling, just like Slots and Roulette. Most casino games are made in such a way, that your expected return is a little under 100%. This means that from every dollar bet at the tables, the casino expects to keep a few cents. For individual players, results may vary. Some will win, most will lose. But for the house, it doesn't matter. They take millions of bets each day, so for them, the expected average works out a lot sooner. In short: the house always wins. When looking at the house edge, we're talking about the expected long-term result, based on the game's house rules. But for a player, it can take literally tens of thousands of hands or spins before you also reach this average number. Until that time, you can experience huge upswings and downswings, that are the result of nothing but short-term luck, which is called variance. Some games and some bets have a much higher variance than others, which means your actual results will differ enormously from what you're expected to be at. Take for example betting on red/black at the Roulette table. This is a low-variance proposition, because it has a high percentage chance of occurring, and a low payout. Contrast this with betting single numbers in Roulette, which only win once every 38 spins on average. This bet has a much higher variance, meaning you can easily hit a dry spell, and not hit anything for 200 bets in a row, or you can see a single number hit three times in five consecutive spins. This is not a freak occurrence in high-variance bets. Even though the expected return in both these bets is exactly the same, there's a huge difference in variance, causing massive differences in short-term results, which can go both ways. You need to be aware of this, before you decide what types of bets you are comfortable with placing. Gamblers' Fallacy Another thing to realize, is that each individual game, hand, or spin, is completely independent from the one(s) before it, and after it. Gamblers tend to believe, that the chance of a certain outcome is increased, based on previous results. The most famous example comes from the Casino de Monte Carlo, where the Roulette wheel managed to land on black 26 times in a row. Gamblers lost many millions during that streak, all frantically betting on red, believing that the odds were in favor of the wheel coming out on red, after producing so many blacks. This is not true. Each round is completely independent, and the odds are exactly the same. You will hear people say things like a Blackjack table being "hot" or "cold", which is completely superstitious, and should be ignored. The exception was when Blackjack was being dealt from a shoe. It made card counting possible. But with the introduction of shuffle machines, and continuous shuffling like is being used in GTA, this no longer exists. This is also why "chasing your losses" is a very bad idea. After being on a losing streak for some time, many gamblers believe that now it's their turn to start winning. So they will often increase their bet size, believing that when their predicted winning streak comes around, they will win back their losses, and more. The reality of it, more often than not, is that people will indeed start playing higher and higher limits, until they are completely broke. Nobody is ever "due for a win". There is never a guarantee that you're about to start winning. In fact, the opposite is more likely to be true. You are, after all, in a casino. Betting systems Some people like to think that they have a fool-proof betting system, like the Martingale system. Simply increase or even double your bet when you lose, and keep doing that until you win. In theory, this system will always win. So that's why table limits were introduced, and where the system fails. If you start at the Roulette table, playing red/black, with a small 750 chip wager, and just double your bet every time you lose, you only have to lose 6 times in a row, before you will be betting the table limit of 48,000, just to get that 750 chip profit. Sure, you can go on all evening without this happening, winning 750 chips each time, but this losing streak only has to happen once, and you're bust. Any betting system like this is ill-advised, because you are hugely increasing your so-called "risk of ruin", and that's what we were trying to avoid. And even if your starting bet is only 100 chips, after only nine straight losses, and nine doubled bets, you are betting the table limit at 50,000 chips. If you lose that bet, you're 100,000 chips in the hole, with no way to recover that with your 100 chip base wager. So don't believe anyone that says this is the perfect system to always win in the casino. Sooner or later they will understand why they were wrong, when they're asking you for a loan. Set your limits BEFORE you start playing One final point before we get into the games, a general tip for people that head out to play: money management. Just like in real life, before you go to the casino, decide on a maximum amount that you are WILLING TO LOSE. Bet small enough, so that amount can last you through the entire evening, and you will not be tempted to run to the ATM to continue playing. Considering GTA money, some people will be comfortable losing 1% of their GTA bank balance, some people will be comfortable with gambling away 5% of their total GTA savings. It's up to you what you can handle. Decide for yourself where it will start to hurt, and don't cross that line. But whatever number you decide on, as soon as you lost that amount, get up and walk away. Don't chase your losses, stick to your limits, and accept that this has not been your day. There is always another game tomorrow. Always agree with yourself on a simple stop-loss rule, how much you would want to lose at most, and simply stop playing when you get there. Same goes for winning. You can decide on a number, how much profit you would like to take away from the casino. You can go on a hot streak and be up half a million in a short period of time, but if you would continue to play longer, looking for more, chances are that you're going to lose it all back. Most people are happy with doubling their daily casino budget, for example. Others are looking for 10 bets profit in Blackjack. Whatever you choose, when you hit that number, you can stop playing and bank your profits, or you can continue playing if you're still enjoying the games, but then only just play minimum bet sizes. Then you're just playing for fun, not for money. You've already made your profit, so simply keep it in your pocket, and don't risk losing it again. Either way, decide on what your money management strategy will be, and STICK TO IT. Casino games in GTA Online Now, I'm going to dive into the games that you can find at the Diamond casino, ordered from worst to best. 6) Slots Generally the rule is this: the less strategy a game has, the worse it is for the player. And with slots, this is definitely the case. The only influence you have, is choosing what type of machine you're going to play. Basically, there are two types of slot machines: -high frequency, low payout slots -low frequency, high payout slots In the first type, there is no huge (progressive) jackpot on offer, just your average selection of prizes that don't go up to crazy amounts. This will result in a player having many more spins resulting in a win. The amounts that you win on the bigger prizes, will be smaller, but they do come around more often. This type of slot machine has a lower variance, which means that your money should last you longer, winning many smaller prizes along the way to keep you going. The second type of slot machine lures you in with the temptation of a huge jackpot prize. Even though the long-term expected return on these machines is the same as the previous type, the prize distribution is hugely different. The large jackpot prize weighs heavily on the scale of expected return, but the chance of it hitting is extremely small. This results in a much higher variance on this type of machine. Usually your money will go down very fast, because the smaller prizes are less rewarding than on the other type of machine. At the Diamond, the info screen says the player return at slots is set at 98.7%. This means that, on average, for every maximum bet of 2,500 chips, you expect to lose 32.5 chips. This might not seem like a lot, but the danger of slots is that the game is extremely fast. You can spin about once every 6 seconds, which would result in an expected LOSS of about 20,000 chips per hour of playing. But again, in this long-term expected number, the large jackpot awards are also factored in, and as long as you don't hit those big prizes, you'll see your money go down a lot faster. In any case, thank heavens the max bet is only set at 2,500, or else we would see more players go bankrupt at alarming rates. Optimal strategy for slots: There is none. Because after betting, you have no more influence over the outcome. The only choices you have, is what type of machine you want to play at, and how much money you are going to risk. And those are all personal preference. As long as you stick to your loss limits, as discussed above, there's no harm in having a go every once in a while, hoping to get a lucky hit. Just realize that you don't have a high chance of scoring a big win, so as soon as you do, get up and walk away. 5) Roulette Roulette is also a game where you have no influence over the outcome. There is zero skill involved. You place your bet, and that's it. In traditional French roulette, a table has only the single-zero, but of course, for American casinos that wasn't enough of a house edge, so they simply doubled their profits by adding a second zero. The house edge was increased from 1/37 to 1/19, which is huge. This makes playing on a double-zero roulette table by definition a sucker's play. The payouts scale evenly, which means that a bet on a single number, and a bet on half of the numbers, and everything in between, yields the same expected return. The only difference, again, being the variance that you are willing to subject yourself to. The player return for double-zero Roulette for all bets is 94.74%. Except for the 5-number bet, which can only be made by placing a bet on the two top rows that contain 0, 00, 1, 2 and 3. The expected return on this bet is lower: 92.1%. This is because it only pays out 6-1. Why? Well, the number 36 isn't divisible by 5, so the greedy people that came up with double-zero Roulette had to round it off someway, and as expected, it wasn't going to be in the players' favor.Just remember that that 5-number bet is the worst bet at the table, and should be avoided. All other possible bets have the same expected return. So it really doesn't matter how you spread your bets, if you bet only one chip, or if you litter the entire table with a bucketload of chips. Each chip you put out there, has the same expected return, so there is no strategy that will improve your long-term results. Assuming that you're betting the maximum table amount of 50,000 chips, you will be looking at an expected loss of about 2,630 chips per spin. Considering that a round takes about 45 seconds to complete, your expected LOSS at the GTA Roulette tables will be around 200,000 chips per hour of playing. Optimal strategy for double-zero roulette: Stay away. Stay far away. 4) Three Card Poker With Three Card Poker, we come across the first game where there is actually some strategy involved. You get to look at your cards, and then decide if you want to fold, and surrender your ante, or double your bet. Additionally, you can choose to place a side bet on "Pair Plus", which offers progressive payouts. There are some websites out there that ran all the numbers with computer simulations, and even though I would like to quote the source here, these websites are understandably littered to the max with online casino ads, so that's why I have decided against doing that. Optimal strategy for Three Card Poker: For this game you only have to remember one strategy rule: Always bet on any high card queen-six-four or better, and fold any high card queen-six-three or lower. That's it. Just don't forget to double check if you're not folding a straight or a flush, and you'll be fine. This strategy will result in an expected return of 96.63%. The Pair Plus sidebet, with the payout table that is used at the Diamond casino, gives you an expected return of 97.68%, which is actually a bit better than the main ante bet. So by playing both wagers, you're reducing your expected losses per bet, but since you're betting more, you're also increasing your expected loss per hour. My advice would obviously be to not play this game at all, but if you do, put as much of your bet as possible on the Pair Plus, while making our Ante bet as small as you can. To be able to compare it to the other games at the Diamond, let's stay on that 50,000 maximum wager, meaning making your ante bet 35,000, and your pair plus bet 15,000, if the table would allow it. This results in an expected loss of about 1,525 chips per hand, and with a round taking about 45 seconds, this adds up to an expected LOSS of around 120,000 chips per hour of playing. In comparison, if you would only play the ante bet for 50,000 per hand, you expect to lose 1,685 chips per hand, which means an expected LOSS of about 135,000 chips per hour. So the more out of that 50,000 wager you can put on the "Pair Plus" sidebet, the better. Even though it may be fun to try out this game for a bit, since there's only one simple strategy rule to follow, you'll soon find yourself robotically grinding down your bankroll until it has vaporized. You're not missing out on anything if you skip these tables, there is no real challenge. Just like with Roulette and Slots, if you want to try it out nonetheless, you can just bet the minimum amounts and only play for fun, so it won't matter if you win or lose. 3) Blackjack Blackjack is the most complicated game by far. Simply because the player has to make a series of decisions, which will largely decide the outcome. Luckily, there is such a thing as an optimal strategy, which will be outlined below. However, the strategy is also dependent on the house rules. These not only affect your expected return, but in some places also your decisions. Here are the house rules at the Diamond casino: -The game uses 4 standard decks, and a continuous shuffle. -Blackjack pays 3 to 2, dealer checks for early blackjack. -No insurance offered, no surrender. -Dealer stands on soft 17. -Double down on any two cards. -Player can split only once, but doubling after split is allowed. -Seven-Card Charlie. Under these rules, and following the "basic strategy" chart, your expected return at Blackjack is a shade under 99.6%, which is extremely good for a casino game, that's why Blackjack should be your table game of choice. But it comes at a price: you are going to have to memorize the relatively complicated strategy chart, or at least stick it to your monitor until you have it in your head. But in case you ever stumble into a real-life casino, you won't regret having this table memorized, so I would definitely advise you to work on that. The strategy chart might look complicated at first, but you will be able to notice certain patterns. Your decisions are mainly based on the dealer's upcard, which is basically divided into a weak card (2 to 6), and a strong card (7 to ace). When a dealer shows a strong card, you will be hitting more often with the risk of going bust, but when a dealer shows a weak card, you're not taking that risk, and you will be standing more, but also doubling and splitting more. You want to increase your bets when the odds are in your favor, and get out cheap when they're not. But it also helps to take some time to think about why a certain advice is given. For example, why does it say that you always have to split two eights, even against an ace. Well, that's because two eights equals 16, which is the worst total you can have. It's better to split them up, and give yourself a chance of finding a 17, 18 or 19 with the next card. Once you see the logic in that, you'll have one less thing to memorize. The playing advice in the basic strategy chart is a result of computer simulations that ran all possible outcomes against each other, and produced the most profitable decision for each situation. So you can't go wrong following it. Optimal strategy for Blackjack with Seven-Card Charlie The added house rule of Seven-Card Charlie, adds a small advantage for the player, and it does influence a few strategy decisions. For example, you might have a 14 with 6 cards, against the dealer's 5 upcard. Normally this would be an automatic stand, but if you're only one card away from the Seven-Card Charlie, meaning an instant win for the player, regardless of the dealer's hand, it turns it into a hit. Here's the most optimal strategy chart to follow for the Diamond Casino house rules: https://prnt.sc/olct6g You'll see that two fives are missing from the chart, and that's because you never split them. You treat them as a regular 10. You also never split tens. Just stand on 20. If you follow this strategy religiously, even with a maximum wager of 50,000 chips, you only expect to lose about 215 chips per hand, and with rounds taking about 30 seconds, that amounts to an expected LOSS of 26,000 chips per hour, which is only half a bet. A small price to pay for an hour of entertainment. But since the expected return is so extremely close to 100%, you will see more positive short-term results than with other games. But obviously it can also swing the other way. Again, this is supposed to be the game where your money lasts you the longest, but always set your loss and win limits before you sit down. That rule simply always applies. Still, even with optimal strategies applied, all these games are expected to lose you money in the long run. So betting any kind of large amounts is not advised. If you simply want to enjoy playing these games, there's nothing wrong with betting a minimal amount. Playing these games for a longer period of time will already cost you money anyway, since your daily property fees will still be charged while you're playing in the GTA casino. As long as you can play for fun, there's nothing wrong, but when you see yourself betting insane chunks of your entire bank balance to try to recoup some unfortunate losses, you're doing it wrong. As the commercials in Britain all correctly say: when the fun stops, stop. 2) Virtual Horse Racing Now onto the good stuff. I ran some numbers, and I believe Rockstar has made a mistake with the horse racing game. Because as it stands, and if I read the numbers correctly, this game is actually profitable for the player. You can actually make money with this, at least, until Rockstar figures out their mistake and patches it. If anyone wants to jump into the math and double check this to make sure, please do so. I will add any corrections to this post. This is one of those "to good to be true" things, so I keep thinking that I might have overlooked something. So please verify it if you can. The setup is this. There is a pool of 100 horses, each with their own attached payout. These are divided into 3 groups, ranked by their odds. From each group, 2 horses are randomly selected to provide a pool of six runners for you to bet on. Now it's not an actual race you're looking at. You are looking at a raffle. This is important to realize. Each horse gets awarded a certain number of raffle tickets. The favorites get awarded more tickets than the underdogs, and therefore, have a higher chance of winning. If this distribution works like it does in the real-life casinos, then the raffle tickets are awarded according to the betting odds. Example 1: imagine a race with 3 runners, all have 2/1 odds, representing a 33.3% chance of winning. (Because 2/1 means 2 AGAINST 1, so 3 total.) In this case, each horse gets one third of the raffle tickets, giving them an equal chance to win. Example 2: imagine a race with 3 runners, one has 1/1 odds (or EVENS), representing a 50% chance of winning, and the other two horses are marked up as 3/1, with a 25% chance of winning. The favorite gets half the tickets, the other two get a quarter of the tickets each. A ticket is drawn, and you'll have a winner. It doesn't matter in this game which horse you bet on, because the expected return is always the same: 100% or break-even, for the above examples. Now, what happens if the percentages don't exactly add up to 100%? They must add up to 100%, because there will always be a winner. And only one winner. So when this is the case, the actual winning chances of the horses are adjusted to meet the 100% requirement, using their payout odds to determine the scale. So, if the represented percentages add up to more than 100%, the actual winning chances of the runners will be DECREASED, resulting in all bets becoming losing propositions for the players. Example: In a 6-horse race, all runners are listed at 4/1, representing a 20% chance. Only with six runners that amounts to 120%. So all chances are scaled down by 1/6th, to end up at 100%. This means your horse's chances are reduced from 20% to 16.67%, turning it into a losing bet: 5 times you will lose your bet, and 1 time you will win, but only get 4 bets back in this instance, instead of 5. A losing bet in the long run. This is the type of odds that you find in regular casinos, with fields as large as 15 runners to bet on, where the assumed winning chances always add up to more than 100%, therefore are decreased for all runners, resulting in a house edge. But in GTA Online's Inside Track, there are other scenarios, because of the small field, and the way that they are put together. In some cases, the represented percentages when added up, are LESS than 100%, meaning that the actual winning chances of all runners, are INCREASED. This creates profitable bets for the players, because in the long run, you're expecting to win more money than you lose. This is a gambler's dream, pure and simple. So, according to the in-game information, the three groups of horses are divided as follows: -Favorites: EVENS to 5-1 -Outsiders: 6-1 to 15-1 -Underdogs: 16-1 to 30-1 Let's take the two most extreme examples to show what's happening. The worst possible field to bet on: two runners at EVENS, two runners at 6-1, and two runners at 16-1. EVENS represents a 50% chance, 6-1 is 14.29%, and 16-1 is 5.88%. Add those up and you land on a total of 140.34%. This means that the actual winning chances of the horses are decreased by 28.75% (to get that 140% down to 100%), which makes betting on this field extremely unwise. A horse at EVENS will only come in as a winner 35.63% of the time, instead of 50%, a horse at 6-1 will only win 10.18% of the time, and an underdog at 16-1 will only win 4.19% of the time. The expected return on a bet on any of the horses in this field is only 71.26%, so a maximum bet of 10,000 chips on any of these horses holds an expected LOSS of 2,875 chips. These returns are the same, because the winning chances are scaled equally, according to the payout numbers. So it really doesn't matter which horse you bet on, in the long run, you expect the same results. But as explained before, it does influence variance, and therefore your short-term result, which can swing both ways. But now, the best possible field to bet on: two runners at 5-1, two runners at 15-1, and two runners at 30-1. Odds at 5-1 represents a winning chance of 16.67%, 15-1 odds means 6.25% chance, and 30-1 odds means a 3.23% chance of winning. Add these six horses together, and you only get 52.285%. This means that, to get from 52% to 100%, the actual winning chances of these horses will be almost doubled! Multiplied by 1.91 to be exact. So the 5-1 favorites will now win 31.88% of the time, instead of 16.67%, the 15-1 runners will win 11.95% of the time, and the underdogs at 30-1 odds will still win 6.17% of the time. When betting on this field, the expected return on your bet is 191.25%! This means that a max bet of 10,000 chips will result in an expected PROFIT of 9,125 chips. This is printing money, if there ever was such a thing. Optimal strategy for Virtual Horse racing So all you have to do, is only bet high on the games where you have an expected positive return, and bet the absolute minimum on the games where your expected return is negative. Or back out of the racing game to refresh the field. If you don't have a way to quickly add up all the percentages, and until somebody shows up here with a neatly formatted table, just use a few general rules of thumb: -Always bet the maximum on a race with favorites at 2/1 and 3/1 or higher in it. -Simply skip all races with two favorites at EVENS in it, and at EVENS and 2/1. Or bet the minimum, if you can't skip or refresh the field. -To decide if you should play races with other favorite combinations EVENS and 3/1, EVENS and 4/1, EVENS and 5/1, or two favorites at 2/1, the payouts on the other four runners determine whether or not it's profitable to play them. The results of betting on these fields vary from an expected 1,330 chip loss (worst-case) to an expected 1,680 chip win (best-case), with a max bet of 10,000 chips. But if you're not looking for another strategy chart, you might just want to skip these borderline cases, and just cherry pick the best ones, which are easy to recognize, and with which you can never go wrong. It's difficult to put a number on an expected win-rate, because it all depends on which fields you get presented with, but it's not unreasonable to state that you can maintain a steady win-rate of around 200,000 chips per hour, with about 50 seconds per race. Remember, you're not trying to win every race. You're trying to win the most money per hour. So don't sweat it when you bet on a 4/1 favorite, and lose a couple of races in a row. It will still be more profitable in the long run. You have the math on your side. To reduce negative variance, always bet on the favorite, when betting on profitable fields. We're not gambling anymore, we're grinding out a steady profit. We want to keep the swings to a minimum. I contacted Rockstar support to verify if this is indeed how it works, but the only reply I got after 6 weeks is that they were "looking into it". User u/Garsant made a useful Excel-worksheet, available for you to download, where you can quickly type in the payouts on the horses, to see if it produces a profitable bet or not. You can find it in his post here: https://www.reddit.com/gtaonline/comments/ekp8na/gta_online_inside_track_odd_calculato 1) Wheel of Fortune The number one profitable casino game in GTA Online is obviously the Wheel of Fortune, because it costs you nothing to play. Unfortunately, you only get one free spin per day, but it holds great value, so make sure you do it. With a chance to win a super car, vehicle discounts, expensive mystery prizes (which also can be vehicles), and a lot of cash and chips, the expected return on a single spin is around $100,000 in value. So don't forget your daily spin, it's definitely worth your time. 2020 Update: As of the Diamond Casino Heist update, the Inside Track horse racing is confirmed to still be as profitable as outlined above.The only thing that seems to be changed, is that you can't refresh the field anymore by backing out of the screen. This does affect your hourly rate in a negative way, but does not change the fact that this game has a huge positive expected return, and should be your go-to when you're trying to take money from the house, without having Lester's nagging voice in your ear. That should also be worth something. And with that, I conclude my 5,000 word essay on gambling in GTA. Questions, comments, feel free to add your input to this guide. Cliffs: -Gambling games should only be played for fun, not for big money. You should expect to lose in the long run. The house always wins. -A casino game doesn't have a memory, and betting systems don't work. -Set your limits before you start, how much you are willing to lose or win, and then walk away when you get there. -Don't play slots, roulette, or three card poker. -Only play blackjack following a basic strategy chart (https://prnt.sc/olct6g). -Inside Track betting can be played profitably, if you only bet on fields WITHOUT a heavy favorite. -Wheel of Fortune is always your best bet, because it's a free bet.
Starting with almost nothing, I made almost $500,000 gambling with Bitcoin. I then lost it all in about 60 seconds. I am now $50k in debt and will most likely lose my job, my visa status, my fiancee. AMA.
EDIT: 01/12/14 EDIT: Thank you all for taking the time to read this. The overwhelming majority of your responses have been very supportive, and I feel that I got a lot of perspective. I am in tears right now, because in my self-loathing state I really did not expect so much positive feedback. I need to come clean to my fiancee, because that is the one variable that I can control. This is a story of luck, hope, greed, despair, stupidity. Over the past 10 days I have gone one a rollercoaster ride of the full spectrum of human emotion. I am trying to live down what happened, and maybe this AMA will help me. I feel this can work both ways too, and I am grateful for any advice I receive. Hopefully also it will help you! I say that I hope my story will help you and I really mean that any of you, because let me start off by saying that I am not a gambler, and I have never even exhibited gambling tendencies before. I am a risktaker and I enjoy new experiences, but I have always considered myself responsible and I have a sound understanding of the maths behind gambling. I know that the house always wins. But after what happened to me, how quickly I got sucked in, how much money I made, and how it all ended just days later, I honestly do not feel that I was fully in control of my actions. If it happened to me, it can happen to you too, and I sincerely hope that after reading this, it never will. Let me give some more specific details, so that you have a more complete picture. I will fill in the rest in response to your questions. EDIT: I ran out of space for proof, please see comments.
My name is Bob. I am a grad student in math, living in California1 .
I got into Bitcoin as an investment. The last 15 days or so have been extremely tempestuous for Bitcoin, and the events of this AMA coincided with the biggest crash in Bitcoin's history.
Around late march I started learning how to play blackjack, just as a fun hobby. I am a multi-faceted person with many interests, and this was just another mini-hobby that I took up. I was very interested in basic strategy, and was hoping to use it at a casino on our 2-year anniversary with my fiancee. She loves to "gamble" in a very innocent sense of the word: she and her girlfriends will go to a casino, have some drinks and have fun losing a bunch of $25 promotional vouchers. I wanted to come with her and impress her by scraping a small profit with basic strategy2 .
I then discovered bitZino (www.bitzino.com), and I realized that the best way to learn basic strategy is to have a small financial stake to motivate me. I played for small stakes, made some money, then took a couple of bad beats. I lost most of my investment profits and was down to about $4,000. Then I switched to roulette3 . I quickly recouped my losses, and began to lose myself. This was the beginning of the end.
On April 1, Bitcoin broke $100 for the first time. I played more and more, and the value of my winnings increased more and more. I was suddenly into big money.
By April 10, I had worked my way up to almost $500,000. I realized how lucky I was to have this amount of money. It was Bitcoin, but it was one click away from being in my bank account: this was real money.
That morning, the crash began. I kept playing. On April 10 I lost all my profits. (I don't want to clutter the summary with specific details, but if you are interested, I posted them below.)
At this point I was in full-tilt mode. Mt.Gox was closed for a 24-hour cooldown following the crash, but even this 24-hour period was not enough for me. A part of me just shut off, and this was when I made the Really Big Mistake. I dipped into my student tuition loan (around $50,000). I turned into an animal, and I lost everything.
I literally went almost mad at this point. Out of grief I contacted bitzino and exchanged some pitiful emails. They were very supportive, emotionally4 . I am not even sure what I hoped to achieve (I did not sleep for 2 days, drank and took a lot of anti-anxiety meds, which can make you act in weird ways).
My fiancee knew I was upset, and I owned up that I lost a lot of money. I said it was due to the crash (which did happen on the same day). She could see the charts so she believed me, but she does not know that I lost every single cent. Lies, but I felt that I did what I had to do (her dad had a major gambling and alcohol problem, so I really could not break her heart like that.)
The money that I lost is for tuition. It's just under $50k as I already said. The most immediate payment is due end of May, which is around $5k (the remainder of this academic year). The rest ($40k) is due over the following academic year (13/14). If I can pay off the $5k I will at least survive until the summer and maybe nobody will notice. I have not told anybody what happened, except my flatmate who I have known since high school and am pretty close with.
The reality is I will most likely be forced to withdraw from the program, because the payments are due September and Christmas and my visa status does not permit me to work part-time. I will have to return home to England and I will lose my fiancee (who is also on a student visa).
So this is pretty much my story. I meant for this to be short, but I now I'm almost at the word limit. I hope there is still room for questions! I realize that there are a lot of people who will say that I had it coming, and I fully accept that. The truth is that I am a bad person, and it was not even some conflict of good and bad, this was just all bad. I lose as a human being, and I deserve nothing but the worst of what life has to offer me in the future. And if I sound incongruently cheerful, it's probably because the gravity of the situation has not fully sunk in yet. Trust me, I am not cheerful. I have literally lost everything, I am suicidal, and there is literally no silver lining here. So please reserve your judgment; I will be judged to the fullest extent over however long a time I have left to live. Gambling details:
By April 10, I had gambled my way up to almost $500,000. That morning, the crash began. I foresaw the crash, but like most speculators, I did not know where the top was going to be. It was at $266. I put in a sell when the price went below $230, which was my stop, but Mt.Gox (the main Bitcoin exchange) was lagged so badly that my order would not go through.
Not being able to sell, I got greedy and decided to "top up" one more time with roulette. I felt justified in this somehow because it was Mt.Gox's fault that I could not cash out my ridiculous profits. I started with a $100 bet I believe. I bet on red. What followed was a run of about 20 occurences of black5 . There must have been two reds in between the stream of blacks. After hitting the max bet I just kept hitting red, and it kept turning black. Once you hit the max bet, the martingale essentially turns into a random walk. So a single red does not save you. Instead you rely on more red than blacks, within a certain safety margin. I failed both the martingale and the random walk. I lost ~1800 BTC (~$380,000 and depreciating quickly) in less than 1 minute.
I still had $50,000 left in USD. After the crash died down, I immediately bought in BTC to make up the losses. I kept betting red, and hit another run of about 12-15 black5 . I lost the $50,000 the same way.
April 12: at this point I was in full-tilt mode. I figured if I can just double up, then I can at least make up for the previous bullet point, if not the one before that. I kept betting on red, as a matter of stubborn principle (surely not again). And I swear you could not make this shit up: another run of 10+ black5 . I lost it all.
1 Some of the names and places may be fictitious. 2 I was never a gambler, but I do have a degree in math: there's around a 90% chance that you will top up by 10% if you combine basic strategy with martingale. The inherent variance, 3/2 payouts and doubling makes the whole process very confusing to an untrained eye, and it's not that obvious that you are using a cheap and flawed betting system. Scraping a small profit is very easy and fun. I guess I just wanted to impress my fiancee and her friends. 3 The bad beats with Blackjack were mainly due to variance. The problem with Blackjack is that the house edge is calculated by considering a large number of hands with the same starting bet. But with martingales, getting a 3/2 payout is more beneficial with higher bets; likewise having to split/double is good with higher bets, but not good if you're up against the max bet. So the luck further compounded by variance of the bet amount with respect to the starting hand. In roulette the house edge is worse, the but game is a lot more homogeneous. 4 I gave bitZino about 6 months of their earnings from last year in just under one minute: http://arstechnica.com/business/2013/01/bitcoin-based-casino-rakes-in-over-500000-profit-in-six-months/ 5 The probability of a run of 7 black is just under 1%, which is a number that we can relate to, it's 1 in 100. Pretty unlikely. If your luck sucks you might hit it a few times. The probability of 10 blacks is just under 0.1%. So if you hit one of the above, then only count is 1 in 10 times. Your luck has got to really suck to hit that more than once. The probability of an initial run of 12 black is around 0.02%, which is just ridiculously low. The probability of 20 black is about 0.0001% which is astronomically low. Disregarding the 2 reds, since I hit the max limit, so not really a fair account, but still. This is almost impossible.
Hi, I've been looking into some gambling strategies people come up with to always win/never make a loss. I am fully aware that there is no "guaranteed" way to win, or even to win in the long run in the casino games since the odds are stacked against the player. There is a quite popular system for roulette though, called the "Martingale System", which is said to be a winning strategy. No worries, you don't have to get into roulette, I'll explain everything. The system revolves around doubling your bets everytime you lose and restarting at the first amount once you won. You bet on red or black, high or low, or even or odd. The thing is with these bets is that you always have 18 winning numbers, which is a bit less than half, because there are 38 possibilities, due to 0 and 00. So in theory your chance of doubling your bet is about 47,37%, which means if you bet 10€ you can expect to win 9,47€. That's obviously why casinos offer roulette and why you can't win reliably. However, if you follow the Martingale System for an infinite amount of time, you'll make all your losses back and even 10€ profit, because at some point you will win. Where is the flaw in that train of thought?
I am hoping someone can please point out the flaw in the logic below. I’m sure the casino is aware of the method below so I must be missing something. The following method is based off of the Martingale system and we will always bet on red let’s say (47% chance of winning). For this case, we will assume the table has a minimum bet and maximum bet of $10 and $100 respectively. This means that if you place the minimum bet ($10) and lose consecutively, you would be unable to do a fifth bet (using the martingale system). So your bets would be: $10, $20, $40, $80 and you would be unable to bet $160 since it is over the table limit. The odds of losing 4 times consecutively is 5%, thus if we employ this method we would win $10 - 95% of the time. For the times that we lose, we would lose $150 ($10+$20+$40+$80). So… if we played 100 “rounds” using this method, statistically we would profit $950 (95 times x $10) and we would lose $750 (5 times x $150) and our net profit would be $200. What am I doing wrong here?
Biggest mistake that I see players make to other players is offering unasked for advice. If someone wants an opinion, or has said that they are new and might need help its ok, but otherwise just let them play their cards. If you don't like the way they play, find another table. As for etiquette toward dealers, just keep in mind that A-we want you to win. If you are losing you are much less likely to tip, and we live off of our tips and B-We don't control the cards, we just deliver them. If you wouldn't scream at the mailman for delivering your bills, don't scream at us if you hit 15 and bust.
Nope, but I think that they are doing well by the casino, and that in turn they do well by the community it is in. I can't say that this applies to all tribes, but the one that I work for has done a lot for the community they live in with the money they've gotten. Opened a health clinic that offers reduced price health care to everyone in the county, spent quite a bit on highway upgrades that they weren't required to, supported many local charities, that sort of thing.
Yes, and not usually. Generally the people that are easy to spot aren't actually good at it, so they don't do very well. I suppose if it became VERY VERY obvious they might, but those people would most likely be in a high limit area, and I don't deal there.
Well, some of them have regular jobs with irregular hours, some gamble for a living, and grahvity isn't wrong, some of them spend their social security/fixed income here. If you want the ritz/glamour, try Vegas or Atlantic City, some of the nicer casinos there will give you that feel.
Sometimes, it really depends on how the players are. If they are talking to me, asking for help, pretty much in anyway interacting with me, then not really. There are some days when I just want to pitch the entire deck of cards and call it quits though :)
Have to admit, I HATE that saying! LOL, just cause I hear it soooo often. Never seen 21, but yes, I've seen players with systems. Some are good, some are bad, most of the are BS.
Depends. If it's truly just a system, and it's working, I congratulate them! If it is a system I know, and it is flawed, I will advise them of the problem with it. People don't seem to realize, as a dealer I don't want you to lose! If you lose, you don't tip, then we are both unhappy. If you win, you may tip me, then we are both happy. Which do you think we prefer?
Not at my casino. We have very strict rules as to when we have to shuffle, and very little leeway. If you are tipping well and the deck is going badly I would offer to shuffle sooner, but once the cut card (at my casino it is a red plastic card, clearly different than the playing cards) comes out, as soon as that hand ends we must shuffle. I have once or twice accidentally done an extra hand, but that is the most I've done. As for varying your bet, wouldn't effect me at all. Also thank you for tipping!!!!
Depends on the casino. We used to have a casino relatively close to here that was 18 and up, but they recently went to 21. It is entirely dependent on the contract worked out between the tribe running the casino and the local government.
Some are. Really, it depends if they can afford to lose. Most people are polite, or at least quiet. If someone gets really bad I can ask my floor manager to have them leave. If they won't leave when the floor tells them to, security will generally escort them out. For the most part, I find that the other players will shame people out of being too big of a**holes. A little bit of complaining is fine, but I actually had someone throw something at me once. He was banned from the casino for life as far as I know.
Then I would say that if you've lost 3-5 hands in a row, bet a little larger on your next few, because statistically you are likely to get a good hand.
Depends on how you mean. As far as I know they won't hire anyone convicted of a felony, though that may depend on the circumstances/how long ago. I know they hire people with HORRID credit, 'cause that's me!
I usually don't bother with insurance, because if you lose that and win your bet, you are still only making half the money. As for the buffet comp, at my casino, make sure you get and use your players card, always the points can add up quickly.
I am only part time, so I make quite a bit less than 125K. If I were working full time I would make approximately 40K. I know that dealers can make considerably more than that, but the casino opened as the economy was tanking, so.....
Single deck is 6:5, which is why I generally prefer double. We are required to place the cut card with a minimum of 15 cards on single deck, and 1/2 a deck on double, beyond that it depends how many players I have on my game. My main objective is to be sure that I never run out of cards on the last hand.
Never dealt in Vegas or Reno but we have quite a few dealers here who have, and I do know that we are taking quite a bit of business from Nevada, but I can't say I feel bad. After all, we need to make money too, right? :) I do hope that Nevada can find other ways to make income though, I like the state quite a bit.
Sadly, I have no idea! I deal Blackjack (single deck, double deck, 8 deck shoe and a variant called Switch), 3 card poker, 4 card poker, Let it Ride, and Ultimate Texas Hold 'em.
Well, the tips I make range between $8-$12/hr. That is in addition to the base pay for me, which is a little over 8 an hour. It can be a really good job for a college student, depending on where you are. It is an awesome job if you like dealing with people, but the training can be kind of pricey if the casino/card room won't train you.
The casino trained me, because they were new. I know they do rarely offer training to outside people, but this casino prefers to promote from within. If you can't afford to go to dealer school, I would say get on with a casino in a non-dealing position and watch for the next time they are going to offer training
I love my job, and I think the pay is reasonable (works out to be about 20/hr) If you like working with people, don't mind noise and smoke and don't get too upset by jerks, then it is a great job. We are required to follow specific guidelines, so there isn't really any decision making so far as hands are played. Stay on hard 17+, hit on soft 17 or less. There are MANY opportunities for advancement, as a matter of fact a lot of the people that started training with me are now floor managers, and our Shift supervisor (that would be the pit bosses boss) started as a dealer. Players are sometimes rude/unreasonable, of course. So long as they aren't too bad, I just ignore it/try to jolly them into a better mood. If they get abusive/distracting to other players/dangerous, security will remove them from my table, or possibly the entire casino.
Sigh* FAR to often! I wish there weren't so many idiots in the world! Still, most people get that I only get to keep what they give to me, not the house.
I have no plans on going to Vegas, mostly because my family/friends/life are all here. Also, we have a few dealers that were from Vegas who moved here to be dealers, and from what they've told me, I wouldn't like it.
I have, and so long as they seem to be with it enough to be alone in public, I do my best to treat them the same as anyone else. I try to be sympathetic if they are upset, but i can't not take the money, so...
Just hitting on a hard 13? No idea, I would never have to do that. If you were doubling down I would call, because there is the possibility that you will bust, and the possibility that you are trying to count, since otherwise most people wouldn't do that.
Well, wasn't something I personally saw, but a friend of mine had a guy that was so into the game he refused to leave the table for any reason. Was wearing an adult diaper. Shit himself at the table and kept playing until he was made to go clean himself up by security due to the biohazard.
Well, I was in training 4 hrs a day, 5 days a week for about 8 weeks, but they were teaching us quite a bit more than the standard. I believe a basic school can teach BJ in about 3 weeks. Roulette and Craps would be a few months
We get about 8-15/hr, but if you are looking in the area I'm in there are a few older casinos that get better tokes. Try looking up Thunder Valley or Jackson Rancheria.
Well, assuming that you are talking about baccarat, I believe that 8 and 9 are both natural, but I don't deal the game, so I can't answer the rest of the question.
The Martingale system can help you win in the short term, but like most baccarat betting system, it has its flaws. If you’re going to use it, you need to get in and get out after you make a predetermined amount of money, because eventually that losing streak will come and you’ll either run out of money or hit a table limit. Martingale Betting System-All There is To Know. The Martingale Betting System is one of the many strategies used in the world of online casino games. These games bring with them many wonderful chances that player in the USA can win real money. The Martingale Betting System is one of the oldest and most popular strategies which is a negative progression betting system, meaning that you are required to increase your bet when you lose and vice versa, decrease it when you win. This is the main principle on which the betting systems of this type are based. The Martingale System is the most commonly used betting system by casino games players, and many believe that it’s the only way that you can indeed beat the casino. To use the Martingale System then games that offer even money bets (or as close as possible to it, counting in the house edge) should be used, and games like blackjack, roulette ... At this point the Martingale system has pretty much failed. In the table (below) you can see how quickly the amount of chips get alarmingly high during a (very possible) losing streak. For example, after losing ten rounds you’d already need to bet 1024 chips if you wanted to be able to cover all previous losses.
Does the Martingale System really Work? http://www.financial-spread-betting.com/strategies/martingale-and-anti-martingale.html PLEASE LIKE AND SHARE THIS VID... The D'Alembert system is a roulette system that a lot of people are modifying for sports betting lately. But does it work? The answer may not surprise you - no it doesn't. Winning sports betting systems are rare as mean different things to different people but here's my take on winning at betting. ️FIND OUT MORE: https://www.b... Enjoy the videos and music you love, upload original content, and share it all with friends, family, and the world on YouTube. This strategy selects those games that coincide with the two criteria below: Criteria 1: According to bookmaker the system market is not the favourite Criteria 2: According to “real” odds the ...
