Winning at fantasy means making predictions and acting on them prior to other players. To do that, you don't always have the privileges of hindsight and deduction. You will need foresight and inference. I hope to offer a some good if not somewhat inferential arguments for why some early moves on this weekly (if I have time) post. Fantasy thinking is often over-obsessed with statistical correlations at the expense of firm causal understanding of what is happening on the field. The forest is often lost for the trees. A combination of understanding the game of football, recognizing interconnected changes that will influence teams, and eye testing the games themselves is the best antidote to the groupthink, herd-mentality of fantasy football expertism which, time and again, proves spotty at best in anticipating changes. Last week I posted this as "Eye-tested Takes" but I realized that's not what I was aiming for. A variety of posters and services watch the whole game and give you maximally thorough takes on every snap. I won't offer much of an opinion on players/teams I don't watch. I'll always watch enough. However, a lot of what I'll make as the case for picking up (or dropping) a player will be based on obvious things that are happening that rankings-myosis may miss. There's always an elephant in the room that no one want's to acknowledge. This post gives fantasy advice that accounts for the elephants on the field.
Things I'm right about (so far):
1. Rivers Noodle Arm = Colts Lean into Jonathon Taylor:
With the quality of that offensive line, Mack going down, and Rivers looking like shit, Jonathon Taylor may end-up being a top-5 back this year. TY Hilton and Parris Campbell are going to disappoint you.
A bunch of commenters disagreed, insisting Hines was the guy to get and Taylor as a top-5 was nuts. This is an instance of the eye-test making people too smart. Yes, Taylor netted 22 yards on 9 carries week 1. Who cares, he was great in college (larger sample size) and more importantly, Rivers looks SOOO spent that Taylor is the only obvious bell-cow RB for what is probably the best O-line in the league. You want that. Rivers threw it 25 times in week two (down from 44). Taylor had 26 carries, 2 receptions, 110 yards, and 1 touchdown. It was obvious what had to happen in Indy but fantasy groupthink herded everyone toward Hines. If you had the audacity to ignore me on this (/s), the good news is there's still time. His trade value has skyrocketed on most charts but he's not quite valued as a top back yet. If you get the feel someone is under-valuing him, don't wait longer because his first 2 TD game is going to make him inaccessible in a trade. The Colts defense is also looking good enough to maintain a lead throughout a game, opening-up more run play calls. (Rivers sucking is going to do that all the time anyway). And if you still don't believe me, watch his highlights from this week and you'll see why he could be such a focal point. He does a lot of things that coaches like to lean-into: great ball security, adds 2-3 yards to the end of runs, explosive speed when he has big holes. 2.Browns Offense is fine:
Don't panic about the Browns offense. Baker Mayfield looked like trash but the running offense actually looked pretty good at times...Stefanski is the guy you need to believe in... The biggest takeway from the game isn't the Browns offense is bad, its that the Ravens defense is great.
Both Browns running back scored multiple TD's and registered more than 150 yards each week 2. Baker continued to suck and it didn't matter. Stefanski's offense is good and his coaching career is a testament to his talent. All-Ivy-League Football Player. First coaching job was in the NFL. They wouldn't let him leave for 14 years because they knew he was a talent. So don't run from Chubb or Hunt yet. And if you have them both, start them both and don't feel bad (unless you have a clearly better option like Zeke too...then probably favor starting Kareem Hunt the larger your ppr value, but its a tough call). The Browns are a perfect storm that make both startable: (a) Both Chubb and Hunt have top-5 rb talent and it comes across when you watch them on the field. With good combinations of strength and speed, each one is TD risk on every snap. (b) Sefanski divides snaps very well. Both are getting touches-a-plenty. They just signed they're "back-up" RB to a new contract (I mean, how often does that happen in the modern NFL?). KS also divides snaps by drive, unless a drive gets very long, so even if Chubb is doing well, he's going to give Kareem Hunt a whole drive. (c) starting both is fading Baker which is smart. The Browns are going to increasingly realize that their offense is more effective with Baker doing less. They may even move to Case Keenum (their back-up, legit didn't know that last week) and that's fine for Chubb/Hunt. I wouldn't run from OBJ or Jarvis Landry yet either, though Baker's ineptitude has got to make you worry. Think about what Minnesota offenses did over the years with Diggs, Theilen, etc. Both OBJ and Landry are going to be solid bets for big-play TD's (like OBJ's last Thursday) here and there but likely not breaking the top-10. Still, the talent ceiling is high with both so a buy-low scenario where you get them in a trade could pay-off if you bet on Stefanski more than Mayfield. 3. Deandre Hopkins is the WR1
Deandre Hopkins will be the #1 fantasy receiver this year... And most importantly, the offensive situation in Arizona is the perfect storm for his fantasy situation. Kyler Murray is good, but he's not working his way through progressions yet.
Hopkins nabbed a TD but only had 9 targets this week. I'll admit that I only watched Kyler Murray's highlights so forgive me if its there and I didn't see it, buuuuut...He's not completing passes to 2nd and 3rd reads. Its one read then run. That's great for Hopkins' stats because the further into the season they get, the MORE Hopkins is going to be involved on plays designed to chuck it to him, no matter what. Hopkins is one of those guys that's always open, and Kyler is a smart player who knows that AND knows he's not good enough yet to start looking for someone else if Hopkins is "covered". That may hurt the Cardinals at some point. But Hopkins is getting fed this season. And obviously, a rash of injuries at WR has made this look to be a better prediction. Hopkins is already a stud in that offense and he's still learning it. His stock is only going up from here. Its true the WR's new offenses typically do poorly. A couple of reasons why that's not true of Hopkins: (a) he's physically the most gifted receiver in the league. Randy Moss kicked ass his first year with the Patriots. Some players are talented enough that it doesn't take time, as long as they're smart as hell like Randy Moss or (b) Hopkins is an intelligent dude. He negotiated his own contract and didn't fuck it up. He wants to be G.M. Big brained guy, he'll pick up quickly. You can see that on the field, he's constantly looking back at Kyler to make sure he did the right thing on each play. (c) HOF'er in the WR room: Fitz will get him up to speed fast. Quick note about Kyler Murray: He's tearing it up. One encouraging thing that you might not see how little he's allowing himself to be tackled. As a fantasy owner, that's encouraging because it suggests he can sustain a high running floor and not get injured. And there's an added assurance that he's putting those slides for zero yards (for example) on tape because the coaches see that too and are more willing to call more of those plays down the stretch. Still, I wouldn't compare him to Lamar Jackson last season yet. Lamar Jackson was throwing TD's to his 4th and 5th read in week 1 against the Dolphins last season. Murray may hit a scheme ceiling where defenses, especially good ones, start to take away his 1 and 2 and contain his run game (though it is strong and he has good vision).
Things I was totally wrong about: zero things!
HA! Next section!
Things I'm not right about yet but pretty soon I will be:
1. Joe Burrow AJ Green is going to be good.
If you watch the game, you see Joe Burrow fitting the ball into tight windows in clutch situations. In fact, he wasn't finding a lot of open receivers, he was throwing the ball well/correctly into great coverage and making lemonade. Also, AJ Green is looking fully healthy and like his old self.
Well, AJ Green was targeted 13 times and caught...3 of those passes for 29 yards. So clearly, the chemistry between them was oversold by me last week. Still, 13 targets is encouraging and so is the Bengals inability to run the ball. No matter how much they try, they're wretched run-blocking always leaves them down late in games and in 3rd-and-forever situations. They just let a rookie throw it 61 times. Another consideration is that Denzel Ward was covering Green all night:
A.J. Green has had an up-and-down career vs. the Browns. Thursday’s game was on the down side, and it had mostly to do with Denzel Ward. Green had three catches for 29 yards. Overall, Ward broke up three passes against the Bengals. And according to Next Gen Stats, Ward was making life difficult for Joe Burrow all night, forcing eight tight window passes in 11 targets as the nearest defender.
Green is still pretty low on trade value charts but stands to have a huge upside as Burrow's primary target. 2. Rodgers is back.
...are there really any physical traits that are important to his game that would fade significantly at 36 year's old? I didn't see any missing zip off of his throws. I did see fucking darts getting tossed all over the field into tiny windows.
Aaron Jones is the #1 fantasy RB right now so obviously saying Rodgers is fully back is pre-mature. However, he is impressing with some very, very pretty darts. Also, the elephant on the field for the Packers is that Aaron Rodgers is a player driven by ego. Not a knock on him, he's just a guy who needs mojo to play at his finest. Maybe it required the stimulation of an insulting draft pick to prod him back into his HOF form. I'm not saying Rodgers can be a top 3 QB this year with Jackson and Murray running so well, but 4 or 5 doesn't seem out of reach. Rodgers is pff top-graded QB right now btw.
Fresh takes:
1.The Ravens are the best defense in the NFL. The loss of Earl Thomas is doesn't matter as much as what has been gained with Patrick Queen and L.J. Fort. Queen is incredibly fast and explosive underneath, getting into the backfield and making big plays. And L.J. Fort (top rated pff lb right now) combine to give them rangey-coverage, tackling, and pass break-up ability over the middle they didn't have before which has further weaponized they're depth at CB (Humphrey, Peters, Smith). Peters specifically is a ball hawk that's found a great home in Baltimore; he couldn't scheme well anywhere else but Harbaugh has found a way to give him the freedom to ball hawk. Over the long haul, Harbaugh has maintained a great defense, regardless of departures/changes, for years and years. When he has this much talent, his defenses are typically dominant. Be warry of starting iffy players against them at any position. They're worth trading for, I think the turnovedef TD potential makes them worth it. 2. J.K. Dobbins will break-out out as the preferred option in the Ravens backfield. Mark Ingram and Gus Edwards have both proven to be reliable RB's for the Raven offense. But Ingram is 30 with over 200 carries in 3 of the last 4 seasons. Edwards has been reliable, a home-grown UDFA. But at 238lbs and without elite speed, he's leaving many big runs on the table. Dobbins didn't attend the combine. But ran a 4.44 40...in high school:
Dobbins posted a 4.44s 40-yard dash, 4.09s short shuttle and a 43.1-inch vertical jump as a high school senior at the event. There are also many reports that Dobbins squatted over 700 pounds.
He has power running balance and break-out speed that NONE of the other backs in Baltimore have. 4th rounder Justice Hill was their attempt of to develop that speed last year but didn't break out. A couple of elephants make this one a good bet: (a) Lamar's durability -- right now, he's taking a bunch of carries because he's the only one in their backfield that has the speed to break huge runs. If Dobbins can fill that role, Lamar Jackson can afford to take fewer chances and John Harbaugh can opt to only drop him back to pass 7 times in the second half when they're winning, like what happened in week 2. (b) that defense -- Baltimore's defense is going to be great enough this year to take over games, making steady doses of run plays inevitable as they'll spend a lot of games up by 2 scores. Yes, they were up like that a lot last year but their only homerun hitter in the backfield was Lamar (see above, Justice Hill wasn't getting it done). Here's an example: this is a shot from Gus Edwards' 22 yard scamper last week: https://preview.redd.it/mhhhpzmkrxo51.png?width=1920&format=png&auto=webp&s=3cdf46ac4bcce3e503729f909c0e787f85459eb9 The Ravens offensive line is good at opening holes like this. While it didn't prove important in this game (BAL was up 30-16 at the time), each run like this where a more explosive player could scored is an opportunity cost for the people calling plays. And its not just points left behind, its points scored while Lamar is watching like a fan. Its points that could allow more aggressive defensive play calling. If you're a coach for Baltimore, you don't necessarily want Lamar to have a gaudy stat-line every week if you're winning. If he can throw 16 passes in a game and then sit-out the 4th quarter, that's ideal from the franchise's perspective (though not so much for Fantasy managers). Each Ingram/Edwards run that coulda been a touchdown means there's more time on the field for Lamar, larger portion of the game where they're not playing a dominant lead, and higher chance that they'll lose because points were left on the field. They need someone else hitting home runs in the running game. Am I fading Lamar because of all of this? Not yet. Eye test = that guy is a singular talent. His throwing motion is smooth like Vick's, just a gifted, effortless release. He's also great at mostly avoiding contact (though all contact is bad contact if you're his coaches). Great decision maker too. Makes multiple reads on plays. Can't say enough about how great of player he is. Still, Baltimore is well put-together enough that they may be able to functionally win without him. So don't be surprised if, especially approaching the playoffs, Baltimore starts calling plays that don't involve as much Lamar. What's scary is that they may be a complete football team without him and he's the reigning MVP. Finally, Dobbins had two carries last week. One was for a 44 yard gain where the blocking was good but not nearly as good as the image above. Even if the transition to him isn't fast, he could force the issue like Chubb did his rookie year, gaining 100 yards on 3 carries in a game. No matter what, the Ravens will run by committee but there will come a point where the player to start out of the trio is Dobbins without a doubt. 3. Minshew is the truth and his team situation makes him a great fantasy player. Minshew isn't the most talented QB in the league. But above all things, he is competitive and scrappy. The Jags are good but not great so he's going need a lot of that scrappy-iness (lol, just say that sentence out loud, you'll hear it). James Robinson is very good and they're going to lean on him a lot. But when the time for much needed yards and points, it seems like the Jags tag Gardner Minshew II's Id in at offensive coordinator. Minshew isn't likely going to be top-5 qb but he might make the top 10 and is likely easier to get than other top targets. Part of the reason DJ Chark isn't getting the production folks hoped is because Minshew is effectively spreading the ball around. Good for the jags, bad for fantasy owners. I wouldn't panic. One of his targets I picked-up to stash is Laviska Shenault Jr. He's getting a legit number of carries each week and averaging over 10 yards per reception. He's an interesting pick-up because he doubles as handcuffs for Robinson. Seems like his carry count could go up to 10ish no problem if the Jags lost Robinson. So pay attention to what position he's listed in your league, scoring rules about how carries count in ppr, etc. But he passes the eye test, very shifty and fast on the field. 4. Teams that are quickly turning into dumpster fires that you should across-the-board fade: Jets Gase is the worst. Never underestimate the ability of a shitty boss to ruin a workspace and make everyone fucking hate themselves, even though they're well compensated to play a game for a living. Listen, I know there's always gems on bad teams. But I have high blood pressure. So tuning into games with players I need to play well and watching the offense go 3-and-out 5 times in a row...I'm literally too old for that shit now so I try to stray-away from dumpster fire teams. Vikings Kubiak has got some big Stefanski shoes to fill and he's doing a bad job so far. I wouldn't panic about Dalvin Cook yet but another bad couple of weeks and I'd start shopping him. See the Browns thing above: Stefanski may have made the Vikings offense look better than it actually was for a decade. Combine that with the defense whose secondary would be better if they were scare crows and you're looking at a team that can't plan to run the ball for more than a quarter or 2. Teams to be worried about: Broncos Whew, the injuries. They're basically just starting with new team. We'll see how things go. Detroit Matt Patricia may have lost this team. And coaches like him don't recover team faith/confidence well in a loss-spiral. Texans BoB is going to crash that plane into a mountain while we all watch. Poor Watson, just watching Deandre Hopkins ball-out. One thing you can still bet on for awhile out of the Texans offense; Bill O'Brien is ego- and career-invested in David Johnson doing great things. He'll role with him when he shouldn't to prove to everyone that he was right to trade Nuk. Its dumb. But he's dumb.
Fortune Favors The Bold (FFTB) Predictions
WARNING: What you're about to read is not necessarily good fantasy advice, but things for me to say "told you so" about a week from now. I take no responsibility for any money you lose (and all responsibility for the money you win). Still, Alexander the Great said, Fortune Favors the Bold.
JK Dobbins scores more fantasy points than CEH this week. (This prediction is backed-up by the time-honored tradition of spitting in one's hand and shaking on it so this shit is serious. Its also painful because I'm a Chiefs fan.)
Laviska Shenault scores a running and a receiving touchdown tonight.
Jonathon Taylor is the RB1 this week and its not close.
Danny Dimes throws 3 TD's this week against the 49ers.
I'm probably wrong about most of this shit but FORTUNE FAVORS THE BOLD! Thanks for reading! If I continue to be kind mostly right and people find it a good read, I'll keep posting these each week. Good luck! EDIT: Thanks for the awards and upvotes strangers! I'll bring the column back next week. Appreciate the comments too, thanks for the banter, shit-talk, and criticism. I'll be spittin in palms again soon. EDIT AGAIN: Thanks again for the feedback. This is fun and I'm going to enjoy doing it again next week. Some of the comments have suggested that the post doesn't really go out on many limbs. I'll do that more in the future. I've also added an extra section with a few "FFTB predictions" for this week.
6Everything you wanted to know about football but were afraid to ask. Ask about any and all things college football here. There are no dumb questions, only plays you don’t know yet. Serious questions only, please! Joke posts will be removed. Please do not downvote honest questions. Got a more specific question or idea? Check out the weekly thread schedule for more:
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Theme varies week to week.
The Monday Morning Playoff Committee
12:00 PM
A place for you to share playoff hypotheticals.
Betting Discussion Thread
1:00 PM
Discuss spreads, oveunders, and prop bets for this week's games.
Everything you wanted to know about football but were afraid to ask. Ask about any and all things college football here. There are no dumb questions, only plays you don’t know yet. Serious questions only, please! Joke posts will be removed. Please do not downvote honest questions. Got a more specific question or idea? Check out the weekly thread schedule for more:
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Thread
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Additional Information
Monday
MS Paint Monday
Varies
Theme varies week to week.
The Monday Morning Playoff Committee
12:00 PM
A place for you to share playoff hypotheticals.
Betting Discussion Thread
1:00 PM
Discuss spreads, oveunders, and prop bets for this week's games.
The "Apology" for not being "Christian-Like" towards me... Not exactly a happy ending because she wished my death, pretty awkward.
I don't give anyone permission to post anywhere else... all that good stuff. For anyone who didn't read at least my first story: the summary... this was years ago. DH and I have been together for over a decade now, we are VLC with her and I'm by default NC with her because she started giving me the silent treatment so I returned the favor. We've been married for a few years and we're very happy and happier for her not being in our lives. I'm not happy that this was the outcome but she dug her own grave and it's not for me to get her out. Truthfully, I wouldn't even know how because she has some serious cuts and scars to mend with me and I won't speak for DH totally, but he's been out of the FOG and refuses to tolerate her crap just to have a relationship. So from my last little tid bit (see the bot) I explained that things with DH's (BF at the time) family was simply different. They didn't do anything together really and things were just divided for the most part. It was a lame story but it'll all be relevant as time goes on, but that's the summary. Now, his mother truly believes that they are a very close family with this inseparable bond. Over the years she has made so many comments to DH (more than I will ever know) and quite a few passive aggressive comments to me. MIL openly talks about BF being the golden child, BIL is salivating for her attention and to point out all that is wrong with BF. It's just a really unsteady boat. The more I saw her, the more she judged me but still never got to know me. I'm a downright TERRIBLE person because I had 1 tattoo at the time (now have 3 and planning on #4 this fall/winter). She would go on and on and on about how they're disgusting and only delinquents and sinners get tattoos directly to my face. Props for saying it to my face but what exactly am I suppose to say back without being disrespectful? I really didn't want to make DH's life hell by telling off his mom so it left me in a pickle. She really tried to make me feel like shit. I mean... this one didn't work but still, wtf is your goal by saying this shit? She would then proceed to cry to me that she didn't want BF to get one and I need to stop influencing him. WTF. How exactly do you respond to that you ask? Well you tell her to fuck off and shove it up her ass. But I didn't. I said something like, "You realize I don't have the same beliefs as you and I'm going to school to get a doctorate, right? A tattoo that you never see (it's on my ribs) just isn't a big deal anymore and I'm far from a delinquent." But her babbbbyyyyyy might get one and she simply couldn't handle it. Guys... DH has zero desire to get a tattoo. Like none. He doesn't exactly care what I do with tattoos to my body (although I think he would formulate an opinion if I came home with a penis tattooed on my forehead) but he, himself, said he doesn't feel the need to get anything. I doubt that will change. I would bet my paycheck on it - Oh wait... I did but I would happily pay up just to see her reaction now (that's just me being petty). I ended the conversation with something along the lines of "Well you really don't know your son if you think he would get a permanent tattoo on his body just because his GF has one" ....apparently that wasn't the right response. Found out from SIL-W(Now wife of BIL) a few weeks later that she was still crying a river to them that she was just so scared he would make such a poor decision. Like this seriously kept her up at night. Oh why else was I a bad person at this point in time? I'm a bad person because I "constantly put down" BF. Well... I'm not really sure how to navigate this one without being painfully honest here so hang with me.... I actually started to point out all the ways she was a shitty mom to him, but she took this to be me putting down BF. Well that backfired and apples didn't fall correctly, clearly. Let me explain: DH didn't know how to use a ratchet set let alone a screwdriver. Laundry was a learning experience. He didn't know how to cook really (FF: he's an amazing cook and his homemade meatballs are out of this world). He ate like 6 foods until I literally took on this persona of a psycho girlfriend who made him try EVERYTHING and his roommates got him to try different spices and wings so now he's less of a 5 year old and has a solid adult-range diet. Stuff where it was just like.... why is he a grown adult and doesn't know this? She would make comments about BF like I was his mother as well and expect me to "fix" the issue...so I only found it fair to point out every way she sucked or encouraged him to formulate these bad habits that she now has a problem with. It's not my job to fix shit. I'm not in a relationship to "fix him" (but yes, I would like to eat more than pizza, pancakes, chicken nuggets and french fries so I did push that one for my sanity, not his). So she spun it where I talked bad about him when in reality I was judging her parenting because I was starting to landslide. Not the best approach. For anyone reading who is currently dealing with this type of shit: don't be passive aggressive. It's not worth the fucking time and energy. Just call her out or move on to laugh about it. I'm also a bad person because I would defend DH - apparently that wasn't okay either. So back to that crap where she would complain to me about BF and then expect me to fix things... One summer when the Olympics were on and BF is really into them while subsequently losing weight and getting healthy. He spent weeks in his room watching them while on a stationary bike or elliptical or whatever which wasn't far from the norm past his workout obsession... as I've said, they don't do anything together. Well, MIL all of a sudden wanted a closer family (probably to remove my "influence" from him) and seriously complained to me about him being antisocial and asked if he's acts this way when he's away at college. All I can say is... I didn't appreciate her bashing him when this is the atmosphere she created. So, I stuck up for him. "Oh that's so funny because he's really social at college. Although it doesn't seem like he's doing anything different than any other summer home. You guys have never done anything as a family so I'm not sure why you think that's changed" Wrong. Answer. I'm also a bad person because she didn't like that I drank and I was forcing her perfect son to drink at college. Yes - you read that correctly. She flat out blamed me for him drinking and it never crossed her mind that he chose to drink, I didn't have some magical vagina that made him fall under a spell to get fucked up. New flash bitch: he tried alcohol in high school well before he met me, but yup I'm the influence holding his mouth open to pour fireball and vodka down it.... but I couldn't say that. So I took the hit for being "that girl" again over the years. So overall.... She kept throwing digs about me or DH and I answered them in the mildest form possible which ended up being passive aggressive, while trying to not be completely steam rolled, but it was a waste because she just treated me like shit anyway. Sometimes I threw a dig back and sometimes I brushed it off. Overall, she was just buying her time waiting for us to break up... Yup... she's still waiting. SIL told me that MIL made a ton of comments on how I'm so disrespectful and it pissed me off. So you can say whatever you want to me including openly dissing me but I'm suppose to what? Kiss your ass? Say thank you? So.... I was very aware of how she felt about me and what she says even though DH didn't directly tell me, it's not fucking rocket science here. Side note: MIL has like.... one friend. She calls BIL and he's her sounding board for everything. Frankly, I find it really unhealthy for you to be treating your child like your therapist... just like... go to a therapist. So how things work in this family is something happens (or basically nothing) she runs to BIL and spins the entire thing to her fancy, BIL tells SIL, SIL comes running to me to get our side while BIL makes backhanded comments to DH about how he needs to be better with MIL or whatever. Both MIL and BIL operate by guilt tripping and it's just fucking annoying. It worked on DH for a few years and then it was like a switch flipped and it's yet to work again. I will say, I shut this little drama train down a few years ago and it's much nicer. Once in a while I get pissed enough to engage but it's rare. Now I just let everything go to shit, let BIL think what he wants while making ridiculous assumptions and him and MIL are little butt buddies who talk shit but have no guts to actually say it or own up to their part.. fun, right?! So to the story of how she once again used her religious crap on me to really show that she's just a Holy Hypocrite. Welcome to her name everyone, I have a winner of a MIL. SIL (little sister) decided she was going to go to prom with her friends and she was really excited. I truly don't know 100% if I offered or she asked me... but I'm pretty sure I offered... to do her hair and makeup. I think I offered because I was home from college so only about 2 hours away (versus 5), she was talking to me at that time for whatever reason, I worked it out with DH where he was coming home and we would drive back to college together, and if she was going to ask someone I would think she would've asked her other SIL-W (BILs wife) since they were closer; I imagine I offered. I also did SILs hair a few other times we were together - nothing fancy just some french braid based that I can do in my sleep so it's not like this would be completely out of the blue. HH doesn't wear a lick of makeup and does nothing with her hair so that option was out, obviously. If SIL wanted to look good she had to look elsewhere. Like many of the ladies know hair and makeup is wicked expensive and I happen to be really good at both, at least for prom quality so SIL took me up on the offer. I had her send me pictures of her dress, some different hair styles that I thought might look good on he the dress and she seemed really excited. MIL texts me and wants to "confirm" if I was really willing to put myself out to do her hair and makeup because she didn't want her daughter to get her hopes up but also wanted to see if I was charging her so she could set aside the money because this type of thing is an arm and a leg and she's a single mother. I was kind of pissed about this. She really thinks so low of me that I would be texting her daughter, in writing, that I was committing to doing all of this, and at no charge (none the less) but would just bail and ruin her one and only prom? Especially over.. what... $100? Wow. Cool. I specifically told her that I would do it for free, I was just happy to be able to make her prom everything she hoped - it was never about money. I mean really? Why would I spend all that money on traveling down to slave over her hair and makeup for $100 or whatever versus sitting at home watching HIMYM? I made it clear and it was obvious I was thrilled to be able to do something, anything for SIL to be happy - It's not about you HH. Next Text: She says something along the lines of really underestimating me and my intentions prior and she would like to have a private conversation with me one on one to apologize for not being Christian like towards me when I come to do her hair and makeup. GUYS, I FINALLY DID IT. IT TOOK 4.5 YEARS BUT SHE'S REALIZING I'M NOT A TERRIBLE PERSON. I'm like... fucking thrilled. I'm sitting here thinking we will finally be on the same page. She can accept me as a person rather than a walking sinner... holy shit maybe BF won't have this unknown future. Well... you read the title so you know I was naive and should've never agreed to a one-on-one talk. So I do SILs hair and makeup... she looks... amazing. She started to tear up and said she actually looks pretty (SIL has some self confidence issues and the lack of ability to do her hair and makeup at that point in time was a big trigger IMO). My heart is ripping into two and I'm so thankful I chose to be apart of this and made a difference in her experience. (FF: her hair and makeup was the only one to make it through the night let alone into the next day so basically a "brush your shoulders off" moment for me.) HH is ecstatic that she's on cloud 9... all is right in the world. They leave to all go take pictures with friends and HH comes back. HH signals me into the living room to have our little talk. It starts off really nice. She's telling me the Bible says XYZ and she clearly hasn't been living up to those standards in regards to me so she really wants to move forward. We talked for probably a good 30 minutes getting to know each other more and she's telling me funny stories about how BF was as a child. I'm getting all the warm and fuzzies. This is what I'm good at. I'm good at being open, no bullshit, and just finding happiness - this felt so natural and raw. Well all good things come to a fucking end. She brings up BFs religious beliefs and she's afraid that he's pulling away from God and it's only happened because of me coming into his life. She keeps pressuring me. She brings it up again and again and again. Yes, he went off to college and became his own person... during that time he also met me. It's a pretty logical coincidence that freedom allowed him to formulate his own opinions and of of those opinions was he wanted to date me. Shocker, I know. HOW could this all happen - at once?! Nope. I'm to blame. Me and my magical vagina. What she doesn't know and BF has never talked with her about is - he doesn't actually believe in her religion let alone her views. He openly says (to me) there were many parts of Church growing up but at the end of the day he isn't committed like she is and he doesn't plan to be. He knows she will be disappointment and he doesn't want to after being the perfect child for so long. He just doesn't feel it in his soul. He struggles with a lot of his mother's specific views and I think it left a really bad taste in his mouth overall. I keep throwing it off saying "While I understand you feel that way this is a conversation you should have with your son, this isn't the conversation to have with me" "BF has his own views that are his to tell, I'm not going to speak for him" "It sounds like this matters a lot to you, but that's not for me to answer. You need to have this conversation with him." After about the tenth time, I caved. I said something like "Well BF has his own reservations and he makes his own decisions. He has chosen not to go to church at college, that has nothing to do with me. He would rather watch football every Sunday and he has never once asked me to go yet I've offered half a dozen times. So maybe you need to accept that BF isn't the same person as when he left for college because that's who he is choosing to be irregardless of me." She just about loses it and dives into every single other little time she has been disappointed in BF and how she knows it's my doing. One example: BF got drunk at a Halloween party and accidentally sent the snap to his sister where he was clearly drunk... wouldn't you know it, that's my fault!!!! Ha. In reality: I was at work and met up with him and his roommates when he was already gone. I had nothing to do with it. But here we are again, her blaming me for him drinking alcohol like... three times a year... okay. She finally says word for word"I pray every day that something happens to you so you can no longer be with BF" as she looked up to the sky with her hands physically praying. Just to recap: In a conversation that she asked for to apologize to me for not being "Christian-like" towards me... she wishes I would die. Holy. Hypocrite. Well... that's the last time we were alone in a room together and that was over 5 years ago. Also: I keep "flairing" No Advice Wanted because it was like... 5 years ago... but feel free to spill some tea ladies and gents.
Everything you wanted to know about football but were afraid to ask. Ask about any and all things college football here. There are no dumb questions, only plays you don’t know yet. Serious questions only, please! Joke posts will be removed. Please do not downvote honest questions. Got a more specific question or idea? Check out the weekly thread schedule for more:
Day
Thread
Time (ET)
Additional Information
Monday
MS Paint Monday
Varies
Theme varies week to week.
The Monday Morning Playoff Committee
12:00 PM
A place for you to share playoff hypotheticals.
Betting Discussion Thread
1:00 PM
Discuss spreads, oveunders, and prop bets for this week's games.
/CFB Ball We would like to welcome you to the internet's tailgate, /CFB! We are a community of over 900,000 college football fans from all over the globe. There is just something about college football that grabs you and makes you want to scream at a TV, a ref, or - let's be real here - COVID-19 or 2020 in general. Dumpster Fire But even with all the bad in the world, there are countless CFB teams for you to root for - in the US and around the world. We guarantee you've got a college football team nearby. We do our best to cover them all. MontmorencyIPNMonashUFPRKITUppsalaUmojaESME-ESGLagos MarinesCanterbury (NZ)NidarosZlín富山大学 (Toyama)天津大学 (Tianjin)동의대학교 (Eui)Sakarya Once you have found a team to support you should consider picking up a flair to show your fandom and pride. /CFB has over 2,300 unique flairs to choose from. Make sure you choose a flair on a browser and not any reddit apps. /CFB currently has the ability for dual flairs. This allows you to show your fandom for two teams or your team and its conference, or even show your support for the Duke's Mayonnaise Bowl and wear a flair for your favorite bowl game! So, yeah, things are weird this year. We're working with this as best we can. Game Threads Because things are so up in the air, for the moment we're going to have CFB_Referee post all of the game threads and post game threads. If things stabilize, we may revisit that later in the season, but for the moment that will help us ensure that everything stays accurate. Useful Information Here are some links you should visit...
We recommend you take a moment to read the rules and the post rules before posting so you don't violate one by accident. Look for threads already happening on a topic to add your take. Look for weekly threads (see below) to ask questions or share specific ideas. If you're not sure? Send us a modmail to ask! How to View /CFB There are many ways to view Reddit, and the one that we recommend and maintain the most is Old Reddit. If you're viewing from mobile web, Reddit Apps, or New Reddit, you'll still get all of the comments and posts, but it may not be as visually up to date.
Rule Refresher
Here at /CFB we have some pretty simple rules - you can read all of them here. We know we're seeing a lot of new faces around here, so this is especially important right now. For a refresher, here is a TL;DR of some of the important ones to keep in mind. No racism, homophobia, sexism, rape jokes, victim blaming, or other bigotry. Just no. Seriously. Discussing college football should never lead to this. Remember, this is a place to talk about football, that's it. One of the great things about /CFB is that it isn't the ESPN or AL.com comment sections. This also means no jokes about rape AND it means no using rape or rape scandals as flamebait. No unrelated politics and keep related politics civil. Yes, we know this is hard with everything going on right now and how politics are intersecting with college football more and more openly. Still, keep it on topic, related to college football, and keep it civil. No content that seeks to deceive, misinform, or otherwise harm others, or to entertain the notion of such. Please also avoid giving medical advice, even if you're a medical professional in real life. No flair based downvoting. The downvote button does not exist to put down teams you don't like, people you don't like, or opinions you don't like. Instead, use it to get rid of trolls or bad content. Downvoting just because of flair makes Coach Snyder sad. Don't make Coach Snyder sad. No flamebait, personal attacks or harassment. Have a good time on /CFB and be nice. No argument is worth getting into on the internet. We encourage strong debates and good discussion but if it ultimately comes down to "You are wrong, I am right" and name calling you will be banned. Examples, while not comprehensive, include instances like you calling someone an idiot, telling them you hope they die, claim all fans of X team are Y horrible thing... these are just a few examples of Rule 2 violations. Tweets must be made as self-posts. To cut down on Tweet-spam, all direct Twitter links will be removed. No word-for-word pasting of paywall content. We can't allow users to repost content from paid sites. There is a reason the paywall exists and writers deserve the money. Feel free to quickly summarize an article, though, or include a very brief quote. This also includes things like posting screenshots of the content or linking to sites that deliberately redirect around paywalls. No stream links. Reddit as a whole is cracking down on this. Do not link to illegal stream sites or to subreddits aggregating those links. Discussion about options like Hulu Live, You Tube TV, etc. are allowed, but keep in mind that generic requests for cord cutter options may be removed. No which team/fanbase is X threads. Threads designed to put down other teams or fanbases will be removed. We want posts that encourage positive discussion and debate, not collective hate. Example thread titles include "Which fanbase is most delusional?" and "Which team do you irrationally hate?" No Buy, Sell, or Trade Posts/Comments We just have no way to verify that people posting these classifieds aredoing or will do what they claim, so we're going to be removing any such threads. Reporting While this isn't a rule, it does help us make sure the rules get applied consistently. We can't be everywhere, so that means we need you to help out by reporting posts or comments that break the rules. You may have noticed the new options for reporting comments and submissions - hopefully this will make things easier! PLUS if you respond and break the rules yourself, you risk a ban. Just hit report and let us handle it. Tweets DON'T TWEET AT CROOTS.
Weekly Threads
Now that the season is beginning, weekly threads will be back up. We have at least one thread each day. Use them! Other threads that cover this information will be removed. Please note, this may change depending on how things go.
Day
Thread
Time (ET)
Additional Information
Monday
MS Paint Monday
Varies
Theme varies week to week.
The Monday Morning Playoff Committee
11:00 AM
A place for you to share playoff hypotheticals and your proposals to change the College Football Playoff.
Betting Discussion Thread
1:00 PM
Discuss spreads, oveunders, and prop bets for this week's games.
The Monday Afternoon Conference Realignment Committee
2:30 PM
Discuss your hypothetical Conference realignment scenarios and how they might play out!
A thread with reminders about that week's upcoming threads, when weekly threads are, etc.
Due to volume of submissions, the threads for the AP Poll, and CFP Rankings will be posted automatically by CFB_Referee. The Coaches Poll however is open to being posted as links. Whoever posts first wins. Please be sure to link to the official websites for each poll. Duplicates will be removed.
Pre-Season Threads
Please note, this schedule is subject to change.
Day
Thread
Time (ET)
Additional Information
8/24
Homegrown Media
1:00 PM
Share your own writing, podcasts, etc.
8/25
Dear CFB: Going to or Watching a Game Advice Thread
2:00 PM
Ask for advice about going to a game or where to watch one for any games this season.
8/26
College Fantasy Football
10:55 AM
Discuss your college fantasy football threads. Note that any comments that relate to financial transactions may be removed.
8/27
Complain About Your Team
1:00 PM
For the whole season.
8/28
Bold Predictions
11:00 AM
For the whole season.
This year, we'll be doing pre-season threads on a conference by conference basis 1 week before they start play, so they'll be staggered across the next month or so.
Day
Time
Conference
Thread
8/26
10:00 AM
FCS
Season Discussion
1:00 PM
C-USA
Season Discussion
3:00 PM
Sun Belt
Season Discussion
8/28
10:00 AM
FCS
Season Predictions
1:00 PM
C-USA
Season Predictions
3:00 PM
Sun Belt
Season Predictions
9/9
1:00 PM
ACC
Season Discussion
9/11
1:00 PM
ACC
Season Predictions
9/16
1:00 PM
American
Season Discussion
9/18
1:00 PM
American
Season Predictions
9/23
11:00 AM
Big 12
Season Discussion
1:00 PM
SEC
Season Discussion
9/25
11:00 AM
Big 12
Season Predictions
1:00 PM
SEC
Season Predictions
Final Thoughts
This season will be the weirdest in /CFB's history. A Hungry Cougar in the Rain We've jumped to over 900,000 football fans with more joining every day. We continue to grow and push our outreach even farther, adding more CFB media coverage and outreach, new AMAs, and new options for our users. We're getting more and more new people being brought in by discussions of a much wider range of issues. Stay safe. Touchdown Order Ball Stay well. Wash your hands. Houston Nutt Nick Saban Watch your sources.
Everything you wanted to know about football but were afraid to ask. Ask about any and all things college football here. There are no dumb questions, only plays you don’t know yet. Serious questions only, please! Joke posts will be removed. Please do not downvote honest questions. Got a more specific question or idea? Check out the weekly thread schedule for more:
Day
Thread
Time (ET)
Additional Information
Monday
The Monday Morning Playoff Committee
12:00 PM
A place for you to share playoff hypotheticals.
Betting Discussion Thread
1:00 PM
Discuss spreads, oveunders, and prop bets for this week's games.
We won't see who is unavailable today until a few minutes before the game starts.
THE LIGHTNING WON THE STANLEY CUP!!! Rays beat the Blue Jays in the wild card round of the Playoff and will be facing the Yankees in the next round starting Monday #TeamTampaBay
I'm the guy who called Marquez Valdes-Scantling's week 1 breakout. This week I'm calling Corey Davis.
Some of you might remember me from what StraightBumSauce called a "Carolina Reaper Pepper level hot take." I posted last week that Marquez Valdes-Scantling would break out and become a top 24 WR in PPR this year. You can read my write up on that here: MVS breakout article and here: https://www.reddit.com/fantasyfootball/comments/irripe/let_russ_cook_fading_popular_narratives_in/ This week I'm calling out the Corey Davis breakout. Yes, that Corey Davis (I know). Here's the thing, we know from last week that J.J. Zachariason's WR breakout model tells us that breakout WRs rarely come from nowhere and that they usually don't have a WR on their team picked in the first two rounds of fantasy drafts. Corey Davis fits both those criteria. When I bring up Corey Davis, a lot of people bring up the times in the past when he didn't break out. We shouldn't let these past bad experiences hold us back from making good decisions today. The moments when Corey Davis flashed in the past are actually a sign that a potential breakout could be coming, and yet fantasy managers are instead holding it against him. It's extremely rare for a rookie to break out right away in the way that AJ Brown did last year. It used to be that WR were expected to break out in year 3, but lately the fantasy community has been writing guys off who don't outperform their expectations in their rookie and sophomore seasons. We have plenty of data indicating Davis's potential to break out. He played 81% of the snaps, the same amount as A.J. Brown. Pro Football Focus analyst Dwain Mcfarland shared some reasons for a Corey Davis breakout on a recent PFF fantasy podcast: Corey Davis had 81% catchable targets, this is much better rate than he had with Marcus Mariota to begin his career. Davis was open on 50% of his routes. It's not normal for a WR to be open this often, this should be read as a sign of good route running. We also know that in week 1, the Titans played more up tempo than usual. The Titans breakout is real. Oftentimes we become too focused on regression. Analysts have been saying that the Titans can't possibly keep up their level of efficiency from last year all off season, but at a certain point we need to just realize that the Titans efficiency might be a sign of talent rather than randomness. And if their up tempo pace continues, there will be a lot more pass attempts to go around. In week 1 Ryan Tannehil had 43 pass attempts, and while that number could go down, it's an encouraging sign for his pass catchers. Corey Davis is a great athlete who showed promise from a young age. We know from Player Profiler that Corey Davis had a high college dominator rating and a young breakout age, both strong predictors of future NFL success. Finally we know from Bernie-Standards thats A.J. Brown's injury might be more serious than we were led to believe. Read is work from this sub reddit here Corey Davis is currently rostered in 35% of Yahoo leagues. If you play on Yahoo, and you have your waiver settings as "Game-time-Tuesday." You can drop your kicker and pick up Corey Davis, wait and see how he performs in the early afternoon games, and then pick up a kicker after Davis plays. This move will cost you nothing, and it might have huge upside. This only works in Yahoo leagues with this setting to my knowledge. But in other leagues you might have a player with way less upside on your bench. You should drop them for Corey Davis. You don't need to start Davis this week if you have better options. I'm starting Davis in a league where I lost A.J. Brown to injury, but in leagues where I have better options, he's on the bench. The Titans have one of the highest implied team totals according to Vegas betting lines this week. Buying into high implied team totals is an effective strategy that DFS grinders have employed for years. Last week I told readers to drop their kicker for Marquez-Valdes-Scantling. If you listened, you would currently have MVS, the WR12 in PPR scoring from week 1 on your roster. I'll be back next Saturday with my new weekly column, "Drop Your Kicker" where I highlight breakout players that you should drop your kicker for. Thanks for reading. If you like my work, consider giving me a follow, BillyPeters14 on Twitter. I'll also be revealing another hot taek there that you can't find in my Drop Your Kicker Column on reddit. Good luck this week, and remember, churn that roster.
I process undeliverable mail for the USPS. The dead letters are starting to creep me out
I work for the U.S. postal service. Every morning for about a week, there’s been an open letter on my desk. This isn't unusual. One of my duties is handling undeliverable mail – so-called dead letters. A lot of times, they’re undeliverable because they’re damaged, open, or suspicious. But these letters aren’t normal. They all have commonalities. No return address, for one. And they have the same damage pattern, like someone held a lighter to the back of the envelope. And they’re all creepy as hell. I shouldn't post the letters. It’s a huge no-no in my line of work.) But I’m at a loss, and I guess hoping for theories or maybe even information. Anyway, here’s the letter that was on my desk this morning: Dear Danny, I was looking at our wedding pictures last night. I don’t have them anymore, I got rid of them. Not because I hate you, just because it hurt to have them. But Mrs. Hernandez – you know, Kayla’s mom – has them on her Facebook. Our wedding photos, on her Facebook, buried under 3,000 other photos. I’d have never even seen them except she was sharing pictures of Kayla. As I’m sure you know, Kayla’s in our wedding pictures. She looks as happy as we do. I wonder if she was already using by then. I guess I’ll never know. Not that there’d be any point in knowing. Here’s something you never knew: the whole day of our wedding, I was crying. Not because I didn’t want to marry you – I did, more than you probably know – but because I was so sad my dad wasn’t there. It was like this endless merry-go-round of emotion; on one hand, I was profoundly grateful that he’d known you. The two most important people in my life were important to each other, too, which was precious. Not as precious as having him there, though. Not nearly. It just hurt so bad, Danny. Our wedding was the first milestone my dad didn’t see. The first of many. I guess you understand how that feels now, but you didn’t back then. Kayla did, though. So when I sat in her room, crying my eyes out because crying is the only way to keep grief from building up until it splits you open, Kayla sat with me and let me cry. That’s why, when four o’clock rolled around, I was able to put on my wedding dress and walk up the purple carpet Mrs. Hernandez rolled out across her backyard – she sprinkled it with sunflower petals, remember? From Kayla’s sunflower patch – and smile. Not because I wasn’t sad – I was – but because I could sense the joy growing underneath my sorrow. Sensing it made it stronger, allowed it to rise and coat everything, even the grief, with happiness. All because Kayla sat with me and just let me cry. I’m sorry you never did that for me, and I’m sorry I never did that for you. Our wedding photos are so beautiful, Danny. When I saw them, I remembered every second. It was August and the day was stifling, but a cool wind came down the mountain during the ceremony. It messed up my hair and yours. Mrs. Hernandez has a picture of us laughing in front of the makeshift altar, trying to keep each other’s hair back before we kissed. That’s the best picture, but not my favorite. My favorite is the one where we’re sitting at the splintery old picnic table. The sun had already set, but the clouds caught the light and blazed rosy and gold. The air itself glowed pink, even after twilight turned everything else blue. We look like we’re glowing, too. We’re leaning into each other, shoulder to shoulder, face to face. We aren’t smiling in that picture, but we look so content. Like we belong. Like we’re one. I don’t even remember what we were talking about, and that makes me so sad I can barely breathe. I remember what came after the wedding, though. It was four in the morning at the Holiday Inn in San Pedro, and I woke up crying. It was horrific. Like I was being crushed. I didn’t want to wake you and make you suffer with me, so I got out of bed, grabbed my duffel bag, and took it into the bathroom. I riffled through it looking for my dad’s letter. You know the one. He wrote it just before he died, when I was tied up in that fucking job in Seattle. The one that wouldn’t give me any time off to see him. (The one that made you break up with me – not that it matters now, or ever really did.) That letter meant everything to me. I brought it everywhere I went and I was sure I’d packed it but I couldn’t find it. I started to panic. I used my phone light to search the hotel room until I finally found it under the bed. The relief was so overwhelming I had to sit for a few minutes in the dark, willing myself to get up so I could go back to the bathroom and read it. I crept back to that cold shiny bathroom and read my letter for the thousandth time. I had it memorized by then. But it was less about reading the letter than about seeing it. Knowing that I was touching something Dad had written was both heartbreaking and soothing. It did nothing for the weight crushing my lungs, but it took the pain out of the pressure. This is what the letter said: Dear Lucy, Phone calls are always good. I love hearing your voice. But letters are always good, too. You can pull out a letter anytime and read it, which is helpful when you’re feeling sad. (I have firsthand experience because I still read all of yours, even the ones you wrote when you were at summer camp a million years ago). So I wrote you this letter. Sorry I’m not a good writer. Nothing much has changed. I’m just keeping busy. I went to a football game last night. It was fun, but sad without you. I spent half the game talking to another guy whose son just left for college. I won’t bore you with the details of our conversation, but let’s just say we were both pretty soggy by the third quarter. Work’s a mess (but you know all about that). It doesn’t matter how sick you are, things still have to get done. On one hand, I don’t like it. It makes me tired. On the other hand, I think it helps. Having a purpose, even if it’s exhausting, is important. The doctor is exhausting but important too. Same old news as always, I won’t bore you with what you already know. It’s pretty cold here. I know, I know, it’s wintertime. But it’s different. Maybe because the winds have been so bad this year, but today you couldn’t even go outside without feeling like you’d never be warm again. Maybe that’s just me, though. I guess the world feels pretty cold for both of us right now. But it won’t stay that way. That’s the great thing about seasons. They always change. I bet it’s pretty cold up there, too. Rainy all the time, pretty gray. So I was thinking we could brighten it up a little. Your apartment has some good, strong windowsills. I want to make a flowerbox for you. You could plant orange poppies. If you keep them inside and harvest the seeds, you could have poppies all year round. Your place would always look bright and happy, which will help you feel a little better even when things are grayest. I know you don’t have a lot of time, but if you take measurements for the length, width, depth, and distance to the window, I’ll build that flowerbox and bring it when I come to see you. It sounds pretty silly, but those flowers have a good effect on the soul. When I’m feeling sad, I go out to my garden and look at them. They always make me feel peaceful, and they remind me that nothing, not even sadness, is forever. I bet they’ll do the same for you. I harvested some of the seeds myself last summer. I’ll bring some to you. That way, next year, we can grow the same poppies together even though we’re far apart. Speaking of which, I’ll be going to Midnight Mass on the 24th. I’m going to sit in the tenth pew on the left side, in the second-to-last seat on the left (because I know you like to sit on the end – I don’t blame you.) I was thinking you could go to Midnight Mass there in Seattle, and sit on the tenth pew on the left side in the very last seat on the left. So even though we won’t see each other, we’ll be together. Try not to be too sad. Things will get better. They always do. Remember, seasons change. We just have to hold on and be as patient as we can. Don’t worry about coming down here to see me. I’ll be visiting you soon, so you don’t have to worry about getting in trouble at work. I love you so much and miss you every day. Don’t be too sad. We’ll be OK until the seasons change. All my love, Dad I sat in that bathroom and read it again and again for hours, until you came to check on me. When you saw me crying, you started to cry, too. It was so sweet, and I loved you for it. Still do. But I’m sorry, too, because I know how helpless it made you feel. I never took the measurements for that flowerbox. I went to Midnight Mass, though. Left-most seat in the tenth pew on the left side of the chapel, just like Dad said. I almost missed the service because work ran so late. I didn’t even get to call him, that’s how shitty work was that day. But I made it to church just in time. Even though the church was full to bursting, that seat was empty. So I sat there, and it was wonderful. I did feel like I was there with my dad. Like if I turned my head I’d see him sitting next to me. Like we were really ringing in Christmas together. Which is a fucking joke, because he’d died the night before. Even though it wasn’t rational, I felt like my job, my apartment, and that whole fucking city were responsible for his death. I couldn’t drive to work, answer the phone, go to the movies, or even grab a pizza without remembering that I’d never see him again. That he was dead, and no amount of love or depth of heartbreak or power of hell or scheme of man would ever bring him back. That’s why I came back home. It’s not why we got back together, though. We got back together because you felt sorry for me. Which was fine. I needed you and besides, I couldn’t stand the idea of being with anyone my dad would never even meet. That wasn’t the only reason I was with you, though. I promise. I really did love you more than I can ever say. That’s why it was so hard to see our photos. Not just because of Kayla, even though that was hard, too. But because when you see those pictures of us – dancing, talking, laughing, just being with each other – you can feel how much love there is. Like the love itself is alive. I think that’s the greatest tragedy in the world: that love as strong as that still isn’t strong enough to save itself. You were strong for me, though. Too strong, sometimes. You tried to make me strong, too, which was a mistake. It didn’t make me stronger or less sad. It just pissed me off. But when your mom died a couple of years later, I tried. I really tried to give you a safe place to be sad. But you wouldn’t give it to yourself. You thought you were being stoic, but you were just being angry. You got mean. I understood. I didn’t blame you for it. But I do blame you for what happened on December 23rd of that year. I was reading my Dad’s letter again. You came in after work and saw me. You turned to stone. Hard and cold, which would have been okay. Except you started to burn. I could feel it: Rage, building up until it came out of you in waves, the way love comes out of our wedding pictures. Finally you snatched the letter out of my hand and threw it down. You screamed, “Grow the fuck up. Parents die. Mine did. But you won’t ever see me moping every goddamn year. You won’t see me crying in the bathroom every week. You won’t see me talking about my mom every goddamn day or whining about imaginary flowerboxes every goddamn Saturday, because I’m a goddamn adult. You are too, so will you please grow the fuck up.” I get it. You weren’t even completely wrong. But it was the anniversary of the day he died, Danny. Fuck. Seriously…fuck. After you’d stormed out of the house, I found the letter tucked halfway under the bed, a few feet from where you’d dropped it, and started to read. At first I thought I was dreaming. You know how when you read things in dreams, it’s kind of correct but terribly wrong? World-bending, upside-down, heart-poundingly wrong? That’s what it felt like, and that’s because the letter had changed. Dear Lucy, Phone calls are always good. I love hearing your voice, but I can’t hear you where I am, so letters will have to do. I miss you so much, and I wish you were here. But that’s not a productive line of thinking. Just makes us both too sad. I’m not sure how to say this, but Danny’s in a bad place. He had problems with his mom, and what he just did wasn’t him. Not really. But it doesn’t excuse what he did. I don’t even know if I should be giving you advice, because between you and me, I just want to kick his ass. But I know you love him. So maybe give him a day or two, til he’s less soggy. Maybe wait till after Christmas. Christmas always brought out the worst in your grandpa. About the flowerbox— I folded the letter up along its creases, which were so deep they were wearing into holes. My hands were shaking badly, and I dropped it not once, but twice. I finally got a good grip on it and flipped it back under the bed. I didn’t look at that letter again for three years. For your part, you didn’t bring up your mom except when you got drunk. You’d cry…and then you’d get angry. Usually at yourself for being a stupid baby who cried for his druggie mommy, and always at me for telling you it was okay to be sad. Occasionally you’d just get mad at me straightaway and yell at me for living in the past and being a child, even though I didn’t read letters or cry at all anymore. You didn’t get drunk often, though. So it was okay. And I knew just how sad you were. I always felt too sad to breathe, which was awful. But you? You were too sad to even let yourself feel sad. So between us, I guess was the lucky one. Your refusal to feel things only extended to sadness, thank God. When I got pregnant, you were over the moon. To be honest, I thought you’d be angry. When I saw how happy you were, it made me cry. Good tears, though. You could tell, and it made you even happier. We stayed up all night talking about the baby. If it was a boy, we were going to name it after my dad. If it was a girl, we were going to name it Lacie after your mom. You didn’t care either way, but I prayed for a girl. For one thing, I was scared that I’d never be able to say our son’s name – my dad’s name – without hurting, and I knew what that would do to you. For another, I thought a baby girl with your mom’s name would help you. And when our baby turned out to be a girl, you cried. I’d been right; a daughter was the best thing for both of us. Everything was perfect, until it went to hell. I’m sorry I lost my mind when she was born. A heart defect. What a stupid reason to die, and an even stupider reason to have never gotten to live. When you think about it, we all have heart defects, and we all have to live with them. Our baby should have been allowed to live with hers. I know it killed you inside to see me fight and scream and hold onto her. I didn’t do it to be difficult. I did it because somewhere in my hysteria, I really thought I could bring her back if I held her long enough. It wasn’t hope, it wasn’t wishful thinking, it was something I knew. The way you know that deep cuts need stitches. But imagine that one day, out of nowhere, nobody else knew that. You’re sitting there bleeding out from a massive cut, but the doctor, the nurses, your family, literally everyone keeps saying that stitches won’t work. You’re dying, Danny, and everyone around you is telling you that the one thing you know will save your life just won’t work. That’s what it felt like. In my heart, my mind, my soul, my bones, I knew that our baby would breathe again if they’d just let me hold her for a while. But everyone – including you – was trying to take her away and keep her dead. When the sedative wore off, the first thing I saw was you. You were holding her, crying so much your face was barely recognizable. When you noticed I was awake – noticed I was watching – you froze. And then you turned to stone. I passed out again. When I came to, she was gone, and you were still stone. You never turned back. When they released me to go home, you took care of me. But there was no warmth. Only duty. Which was understandable. I know how hard I made it for you. And you know me, so you could probably tell that I was wishing my dad was there instead of you. On your first day back at work, Kayla came to stay with me. I’d been waiting for this, for you to be gone for a little while. As soon as your car pulled out of the driveway, I asked Kayla to get my letter out from under the bed. I could have done it. I wasn’t crippled. But I was scared. So Kayla dug it out for me, all covered in dust and loose hairs, and gave it to me. I felt sick when I opened it, and sicker when I read it. Dear Lucy, Phone calls are always good. I love hearing your voice. I heard your voice for a little while when Lacie was born. You sounded so sad. I told you not to be so sad, but you couldn’t hear my voice. You still can’t. So letters will have to do. Lacie’s with me. She’s so little. I’m so sad she didn’t make it, but I can see why. She’s too little for the world. She’s perfect, though. Looks just like you did. It would have been such a joy to see her grow up. But it’s a joy to have her here, too. I know your life is gray, honey. Gray everywhere, grayer than that last Christmas in Seattle. What you need is brightness. How you get it is up to you, but if you still want that flowerbox we talked about, I can help you. I can’t build it for you any more than I can talk to you, but I can write out the instructions for you. It shouldn’t take you long to build, an hour or two at most. When it’s done, you can put it on the sill in Lacie’s bedroom. It’ll make things bright again. Not warm. That only comes with time. A lot of time. But if it looks bright enough, you’ll at least remember what it feels like to be warm, which will remind you that you will feel warm again someday. I wish I could hear your voice. I wish you could hear mine. But this will do in the meantime. I love you, and miss you so much. All my love, Dad I didn’t believe in ghosts. Still don’t. That made the letter both scarier and sweeter. It had to be my dad, I thought. Maybe God was giving me a break. Letting him through to comfort me when I needed it most. So I folded the letter and tucked it under the lamp so you wouldn’t see it. I knew you wouldn’t want to see it. What I didn’t know was that you no longer wanted to see me. When Lacie died, it was like I killed your mom all over again. Maybe it was because I’d made the stillbirth even more traumatic. Maybe it was because I saw you cry. Maybe you were just tired. Too tired to feel anything for yourself, or for me. Whatever the reason, we were done. No love between us except long ago, trapped in photos from a distant season. You moved out the week I went back to work. Right in with Jen. It destroyed me, but I get it. She was twenty-one, more beautiful than I was on my best day, and happy. Happy to be at work, happy to be at home, happy to be with you, happy just to be. Whenever someone posts pictures of you two together, I see the love between you. And I see the relief in your face. Sometimes I wish it was impossible to fall out of love, that you and I had stayed together until the end of time. Sometimes I wish we’d never fallen in love at all. And every single day I wish you hadn’t felt so sorry for me when I came back from Seattle. If you’d felt just a little less sorry for me, we would never have gotten married. And today, I’d hurt a little less. It should come as no surprise, but the day you moved out, I tore through the house for my Dad’s letter. I couldn’t find it. Not under the lamp, under the dresser, in the closet, the bedroom, or anywhere else. I called you even though you were at Jen’s apartment, and screamed at you for destroying my letter. You tried to be sweet, God bless you. You were so kind during that phone call, so gentle. So gentle I thought you might feel sorry for me again. Sorry enough to come back to me. So I hung up. Then I ran outside. I ran and ran and ran and ran and ran, until everything hurt and I could barely breathe. I stopped at the park by our old elementary school. I found the bench we were sitting on the first time you asked me out, curled up, and slept. When I went home, my dad’s letter was on the floor by the bed. This is what it said: Dear Lucy, Phone calls are always good. I love hearing your voice. But letters are always good, too. You know what isn’t good? Danny. Danny can go to hell. There are no voices in hell. No letters, either. There are no voices here, but there are letters. So letters will have to do. You can’t help people who don’t want to be helped. You can’t make people grow up if they don’t want to grow up. Danny doesn’t want to grow up, because growing up means you have to handle your own hurt. He never figured out how to handle his own hurt, let alone anyone else’s. Until he does, he’s going to ruin every last one of his relationships until he ruins himself. Just don’t let him ruin you. I know you’re hurting right now, but this hurt? It’s just a season of your life, and seasons always change. Nothing’s changed where I am, though. Lacie is as small as ever. Where I am, babies don’t grow up or change unless their parents are with them, too. So you won’t miss anything. Think of it like this - she’s on hold till you get here. I hope that brings you some joy, knowing your baby and your dopey old dad can’t wait to see and hear you again. Now, about that flowerbox. It kills me that I never got to build one for you. You need some brightness, especially now. Here’s what you’re going to need: 4 lengths of wood 1 length of wood cut to fit the bottom Wood primer Drill and screws Paint – any color you want, but I’d pick blue – that’s Lacie’s favorite Nails Sandpaper – medium grit Wood filler Here’s what you do… He had a full-bore tutorial, right down to how to use sandpaper. I read it again and again, memorizing it in case the letter changed again. Once I could recite it to myself without a hitch, I went to the hardware store. It took me a couple of days to build the flowerbox, but soon enough it was finished and the paint – a nice robin’s egg blue—had dried. It was pretty. The orange poppies complemented the blue perfectly. That night, when I came out of the shower, I found the letter on the floor, half-tucked under the bed. It made me shiver. I still kept the letter under the lamp, never on the floor. It’s too dangerous on the floor. Exposed to cats and dogs and, well, you. I picked it up. Every hair on my body stood on end – no mean feat when it’s all sopping wet. I was scared. Full of dread, a deer in headlights, because I didn’t feel alone, Danny. The room looked empty, but I felt eyes. More than eyes. A presence. Not a good one. I unfolded the letter – soft and wrinkled by now, coming apart at the folds – and read: Dear Lucy, Phone calls are always good. I love hearing your voice. But letters are always good, too. You can pull out a letter anytime and read it. I wish you could write me letters. I wrote you this letter. Sorry I’m not a good writer. You’re a good handy(wo)man, though! You did a great job with that box. You know what else is good? You picked Lacie’s very favorite shade of blue. How’d you know? Mother’s intuition, I guess. It’s selfish of me but I wish I could hear your voice again. So does Lacie. She misses you so much. So do I. Every day, she looks at me and I feel her question: When’s my mommy coming? Later, I tell her. When she’s ready. I’m glad you have so many seasons ahead of you. But I miss you so much and I wish you were ready now. Where I am, it’s grey without you. And hard to remember what it felt like to be warm. There’s no warmth without you, but you’d understand that since you’ve lost Lacie. At least we’ll all be warm when we’re together again. I love you so much, and can’t wait to hear you again, Lucy. Until then, you’re in my heart. All my love, Dad It was wonderful, magical, and heartbreaking all at once. My baby had a favorite color. If she had a favorite color, she was real. She was alive. Dad too. They were together, keeping each other happy while they waited for me to join them. Even when I felt cold and gray, even when I felt alone, I wasn’t. Not really. Because wherever they were, they loved me. I read and reread and reread the letter until I fell asleep. When I woke up, it was back on the floor, halfway under the bed. Dear Lucy, Phone calls are always good. I love hearing your voice. But letters are always good, too. You can pull a letter off the floor and read it any time. I wish you’d write me a letter. I wish you’d talk to me. But that can’t happen where I am now, so me writing you will have to do. Sorry I’m not a good writer. I just want to say good morning. Don’t be too sad. Seasons change. Not always for the better, but at least they change. I miss you so much, and love you even more. All my love, Dad It was like reality exploded. Everything got bright, happy, and warm. It reminded me of when our baby was stillborn, except inverted: joyous instead of dreadful. Because I was sure, absolutely, one hundred thousand percent sure, that my dad was under the bed. I slid to the edge of the mattress, heart pounding with euphoria, and dropped down so I could look underneath. My heart swelled, Danny. So big, so fast, so happy, I thought it was going to kill me…and I didn’t even mind, because it would have been a beautiful way to die. I so fully expected to see my dad under there that I couldn’t immediately comprehend that he wasn’t. Only dust and darkness. I slid all the way down to the floor and cried again. I didn’t go into work that day. I stayed home, on the couch, and vacillated between rereading the letter and looking through all the pictures on my computer. I printed a few. Mostly of my dad, when he was young and I was little. That’s how I remember him most of the time: how he looked when I was five years old. I don’t even know what I’d give to be five years old again, riding his shoulders at the zoo. Probably exactly what you’ve give to be five years old and doing just about anything with your mom before her drug problem. You were so militant about drugs because of that. I thought I understood – I’m kind of a teetotaler myself. I don’t even drink. But I didn’t actually understand. Because even though I never used them, I didn’t care if anyone else did. But you…hell, Danny. I never told you, but I will now because you’re never going to read this: I think the way you talked about people who use drugs is why Kayla never told me she was in trouble. And she made the right decision. You’d have gone on the warpath if you knew my best friend was on heroin, and fuck the reasons why. You wouldn’t have cared. You wouldn’t have let yourself care. I wouldn’t have let myself care just to keep you from melting down on me. Sometimes I think that if I’d never married you, she would have felt safe enough to tell me, which might have been enough to save her. And here’s the truth, Danny. I loved the hell out of you. But part of me will hate myself forever for marrying you – a man who ran off with a college kid two months after our baby died—because if I hadn’t, Kayla might still be alive. I know that’s not fair, though. I’m sorry. So, I printed the photos of my dad and a few of Kayla and me. I looked at them most of the day, crying like a child—just the way you didn’t like. I hadn’t realized until then just how close I’d come to exploding from the pressure of my grief. It made me wonder about you, though. How you keep it all in without exploding. I wish I could be more like you, at least in that way. But if wishes were horses…well…who cares. When I finally dragged myself to bed, the letter – which I’d had in my hand the entire day, Danny, the entire day – was on the floor, halfway under the bed. The relief I felt was exquisite. This was exactly what I needed. Just the thing to let the pressure off, live another day, and make it one step closer to the changing of the seasons. Dear Lucy, Phone calls are always good. I love hearing your voice. I heard it today, but it wasn’t happy. It was sad. I know you’re sad. My letters don’t make you less sad. (Makes me wonder why I’m writing them.) I think I’ll start writing you at night. No more morning letters. At least if you feel sad at night, you don’t have to try and do anything else. I hate that they make you feel sad. I think if I stopped writing them, you’d be even sadder. I know what would make you happy, though – hearing my voice. But you can’t hear my voice where you are. We need to be together for that. I’m sorry everything’s making you sad. Even the happy pictures. Nothing feels happy to you now, I know. I wish I could change that, but I can’t – at least not while we’re apart. Be strong. Things change. Not always for the better, but at least they change. Change will come for you too. You just have to be patient. You just have to hold on. I miss you so much, and I’m counting the days until I see you again. All my love, Dad I went into work the next morning. Knowing that I’d come home to a letter from my dad made life tolerable again. And there was always a new letter; no matter where I’d placed it the night before, I’d always find it halfway under my bed. The letter was always different. Sometimes it was short. Sometimes it was very long. Most of the time, it was strange. Always, it told me how much I was missed, and how happy I’d be when I was reunited with Dad and Lacie. It was bittersweet at best. But it helped. Even as it hurt, it helped. Like drugs, in a way. December came again. The seasons had changed four times since you left me, but it didn’t feel like it. It was the same season in my heart, unchanged and endless. Grey, cold, and hopelessly dark. The only light in that spirit-winter were Dad’s letters. Tiny flames in a vast and frozen darkness. But right when I needed them most, they changed. Dear Lucy, Phone calls are always good. I love hearing your voice. Why won’t you let me hear your voice? Letters are always good, but they aren’t enough. You know what it’s like to be away from Lacie. Imagine how I feel being away from you, when you’re so sad and soggy. So cold. It doesn’t have to be that way. Seasons change, but not always for the better. What if the next season isn’t better? What will I do? My letters aren’t enough as it is. If things change, if they get worse, what will you do? You need to hear me. See me. But you can’t. Not where you are. Sorry I’m not a good writer. It’s not just me. Lacie cries whenever you get sad now, too. When is my mommy coming? she always asks. I don’t know, I tell her. She’s far away, waiting for the season to change, but what if it doesn’t? What if it gets worse? What if you keep getting sadder and sadder and grayer and grayer and colder and colder until you’ll never be warm again, even if you’re with us? What if you get so sad that you make us sad, too? Maybe you should stop waiting for the seasons to change. Just give up on them and take the change in your own hands. Come to where we are, so we can all be warm and bright. I miss you so much, Lucy, and I’m so scared for you. It kills me, knowing how you’re hurting. Letters can be good, but they’re not enough. You need to hear my voice, but you can’t do that where you are. You can only do that where I am. I love you more than anything. Please let me hear your voice. All my love, Dad The letter got worse from there. Always asking me to hear his voice. To let him hear mine. To give up on the seasons. To come to him and Lacie, so I could be warm and happy again. Finally, I just stopped reading. Every night I’d see the letter tucked halfway under my bed. Every night I’d want to read it…but every night I didn’t. Not even when Kayla died. Not ever. Until one of our mutuals shared the picture of you and Jen with your new baby in the hospital. A girl you’d named Lacie. I thought of you crying over my baby. Crying so hard your face was barely recognizable. How, when you saw me looking, you turned to stone and never turned back. At that moment I hated everything. Every fucking thing. I hated Jen, I hated you, I hated your new Lacie most of all. It was too much to feel. Too much to process. I wished I could be like you and shove it away under six feet of mental dirt and go on with my life. But I couldn’t. I can’t. So I went to my bedroom and found the letter tucked halfway under the bed and picked it up. Dear Lucy, Phone calls are always good. I love hearing your voice. But hearing each other is even better. Letters aren’t any good at all. You can pick them up off the floor, but you shouldn’t bother because they’re nothing. They’re the worst. Written words are conduits for pain. Sorry I’m not a good writer. The season changed, honey. It changed on you, but it got worse, and it’s only going to get worse. You think you have nothing now, but what you have now will feel like a fortune in ten years’ time. And what you have in ten years’ time will feel like a fortune compared to what you will have in twenty years’ time. And on and on, grayer and colder, until you die, gray and cold once and for all. There is nothing, Lucy. Nothing but decades of cold and gray, no matter if you’re patient, no matter how many poppy boxes you make to light the day. It’s gray and cold where I am too, but it won’t be when you’re where I am. Come to where I am, Lucy. Come to see me and hear my voice. Come to hear Lacie. Don’t wait for the season to turn darker. Take charge and change it yourself. I miss you so much, and I love you more than you know. I would do anything to take away your pain and make the world bright for you but I can’t, no matter how patient you are. But I can make it better where I am. Come where I am. Where we are. Please Lucy All my love, Dad I knew the whole thing was wrong from the beginning, Danny. I really did. But I didn’t want to know. And right then, I wanted to know less than ever. That’s why I folded the letter and put it on the floor by the bed. Then I found a pen and tore an endsheet from a book. I wrote, Dear Dad, I have to know for sure it’s you. Love, Lucy I placed it on top of my dad’s letter, on the floor by the bed. Then I went to the other side of the room because even though I was excited, I was afraid too. I turned off the light, and waited. And waited. And waited. The room was so dark. But after a while, a little bit of light filtered through the spaces between the curtains, and it was enough to see that there was nothing. So I waited some more. And more. And more. I was heartbroken and scared and so, so, so tired. I started to drift off… And then under the bed, I saw something move. Solid darkness, overlaid with the dimmest light I’ve ever seen, so dim it might not even have been light. It slid out, slow and calm like oil, and took my letter. I held my breath and waited yet again, but not for long. Under the bed, it shifted weirdly and took form. Even though it was still dimmer than dim, I recognized it immediately: my dad. But my dad as he’d been in the pictures I printed: twenty years younger than when he died, unmoving smile pasted on his flickering face, eyes dark and smeary because the photo resolution was so poor. An old photo expanded to human size, pasted on a monster of solid darkness. It crawled forward until that frozen, smeary, dimmer-than-dim face seemed about to emerge from under the bed. Then it reached for me, and reached and reached and reached, solid-shadow arm with its dim glimmering coat of my dad stretching all the way across the room to where I sat in the corner, right by the light switch. I turned it on. The arm retracted, rolling back like a New Year’s party favor. Underneath the frozen, shimmering mask of my father, its real face dipped and curled into an inhuman and nearly incomprehensible grimace. I understood that expression, somehow: It was hungry. So hungry, and so, so furious that it would not get to eat. The dim glimmer-mask shifted, twisting and stretching into something hideous, and then it was gone. But the letter remained. I stood up and went. Out of the room, out of the house, out of the neighborhood, out of the town. I waited two days, then called Mrs. Hernandez, who came and took me home. When I checked, the letter was on the floor, half-tucked under the bed. Even with sunlight spilling through the windows, even with Mrs. Hernandez beside me, I was so scared I cried. But I still picked it up. I don’t know what I was hoping for, but it wasn’t what I got: Dear Lucy, Phone calls are always good. I love hearing your voice. But letters are always good, too. You can pull out a letter anytime and read it. So I wrote you this letter. Sorry I’m not a good writer. Even when things change, they don’t. Seasons change, but no matter how patient you are they will make you sad. You have no good seasons left. No brightness will change this, because any brightness you find will be gray and cold. You will forget how it feels to be warm, even at Midnight Mass in the tenth pew in the last seat on the left and even in the summer with your flower boxes and your poppies to make things seem bright. People change, but they stay the same in the important ways and the bad ways and they never get better, they just better at hurting you because they don’t really want to change. You will never change because you don’t have anything and you don’t know how to have anything that isn’t nothing. By the end of the third quarter we’re all pretty soggy but you’re barely out of the first and so soggy you already fell apart. This letter will change, but it will never change because you are you. There are no letters in hell and no voices where I am there is nothing where I am but cold and gray. This is where you are coming. This is where I am. This is where you already are so come where I can always hear your voice. All my love, Dad I knew I needed to burn that letter. But I couldn’t because once upon a time, my dad had written it for me, and it was the only thing on earth that made me feel loved. So I asked Mrs. Hernandez to take it for me. I guess I thought getting it out of the house would decontaminate it. Change it back to what it had been. To what I needed it to be. Mrs. Hernandez agreed. Three days later, she texted me: Why did you keep this from me? I asked what she meant. I’m so hurt right now, Lucy. Kayla wrote this letter to me. It’s for me. Why did you keep it? I understood then. And for the first time in an eon, I felt like I could breathe. I answered, I’m so sorry. I just miss her so much. That was three weeks ago. Last night, Mrs. Hernandez shared all of Kayla’s pictures again. She’s moving faster than I thought she would. And somehow, I don’t think she’ll ask that thing for proof like I did. There’s a diseased relief in knowing that I lost my dad’s real letter years ago, probably before our wedding. Because whatever I found in the hotel room—whatever I passed on to Mrs. Hernandez—wasn’t Dad’s letter. Which means it was never mine. Sometimes, that makes me feel at peace. But mostly, it makes me want to die. It’s been such a long winter. I hope the season changes soon. I’ve been so patient, and I’m holding on. But barely, Danny. Just barely. Dear Elinor
With the return of College Football (possibly) right around the corner, here are some of the best websites/apps I've found over the years to be great resources. What are your favorites?
Updated list for 2020! First and foremost, /CFB of course. No explanation needed, we're all here. CFB Discord Server - The sub also has a Discord server! NCAA Scores - No clutter, live scoreboard, search by top 25/conference/all games. Game Viewing Guide - Great website to quickly see what games are playing on what channel and when with a nice visual guide. lsufootball.net - Lists all games, what channels they're on and has links to stream games through the official network's website (FSGo, WatchESPN, CBSSN, etc.). All games are in central time. Vegas Insider - Spreads/betting lines. CFB Poll - Direct link to the /CFB poll. CFB inline flair - Quickly access all the inline flair on /CFB. 506 Sports - Viewing guide which includes the commentators for each game (recommended by mergaam). My Team is Better Than Your Team - A site fully devoted to the transitive property. Nothing important will be learned but fun to play with. (recommended by bullmoose_atx) CFB Sports Reference - My favorite resource for all stats CFB. CFB Stats - Another CFB stats website (recommended by Ron_Cherry) College Poll Tracker - In depth look at each week's polls. Can see individual pollster's ballots (recommended by BeatNavyAgain). FB Schedules - "Great resource to quickly see who is playing what game when, especially future year's announced games" (recommended by Mr_Stitches). College Logos - "Useful if you ever need a quick and dirty image of a school's logo, plus they have a huge archive of most schools logos/history, as well as alternate logos etc." (recommended by Mr_Stitches). Winsipedia - Great website for comparing two teams all time record against one another (recommended by capcity614). FBS College Football Live Scores, Plays, Schedule - (Android App Link), (iOS App Link) - I haven't tried the iOS version, but this is hands down the best CFB scores app I've found on Android. Live scores, spreads, says what channel the game is on, on the fly notifications for things like 'notify if game is close late in 4th' etc. It even has a dark mode. Free with ads or pay to remove ads. Podcast Recommendations - /CFB/wiki/podcasts Link to last year's thread What sites/apps do you guys use/have bookmarked for College Football? Edit: typo!
https://preview.redd.it/b1v30yvtkn651.png?width=900&format=png&auto=webp&s=04f75a5416546b59550b162abe5940c65f12ce5d I started this exercise of choosing second- and third-year players in the NFL I expect to take the next step in their development, based on being in a better situation due schematic changes, the respective team not re-signing certain veterans and allowing their young guys to play a bigger role or just my evaluation of them coming out of college. Once again, my criteria was – they were not allowed to have a Pro Bowl so far, reached a major statistical milestone (1000 yard season, double-digit sacks, etc.) or are just looked at generally as one of the better players at their position already. I didn’t include guys that made my list already last year (Kemoko Turay, Justin Reid, etc.) or haven’t seen the field at all yet (Jonah Williams, Hakeem Butler, etc.). Across my two articles on these breakout players, you will only find one top ten pick, since I believe those are obvious choices anyway, if those guys just haven’t been healthy or whatever it may be. In this version, we are looking at eight more defensive players ready to break out in 2020 after talking about offense last week already: https://preview.redd.it/uiunf81mug651.png?width=720&format=png&auto=webp&s=6446a7cc2e40ba090abe9cc9e047103831cef1e1
Ifeadi Odenigbo
When I did these write-ups, I actually realized later on that Odenigbo was originally drafted in 2017 in the seventh round by the Vikings, but he only made the practice squad that year and was later claimed and waived by the Cardinals and Browns respectively. So since he finally made an active roster in 2018 and that’s when he finally saw the field, I thought he still qualifies. With all those guys Minnesota has had on the D-line in recent years, it was a challenge for Odenigbo to get their coaches to believe in him, having only played in one game for Arizona before last season. However, he was on the field more and more towards the end of this past year and with little investment in the draft into the front, the Vikings are betting on him to continue to develop, similar to what happened with Pro Bowler Danielle Hunter. Odenigbo recorded seven sacks and tackles for loss respectively, while adding another 18 pressures to the mix. He also forced a fumble and returned another one for a long touchdown against the Chargers, while he was actually called down on another scoop-and-score, where he originally got the trifecta (strip sack, fumble recovery and return TD). That is much more impressive putting it into context, as he played just a third of the defensive snaps. Now with Everson Griffen off the roster (unless he somehow decides to re-sign with the Vikes, Odenigbo is almost a shoe-in for that second defensive end spot in the starting lineup. Number 95 was mostly used in passing situations, especially early on, as three quarters of the snaps he played came on pass-rushing downs, and Mike Zimmer used his inside-out flexibility on different sub-packages. Odenigbo was asked to line up anywhere from pretty much 2i in sort of a track stance pointed inside to a wide nine alignment. His favorite (and best) move at this point is the dip and rip, but he also flashes a nice up-and-under combined with a high swim move. However, he also has a lot of power behind those pads, as he set up one of his teammates as the initial slanter versus Detroit and just flattened a guy I talked about in my offensive edition of this breakdown last week already in Frank Ragnow. In addition to that, I think the Vikings DE already shows good timing and execution on twists, freeing himself up by using teammates appropriately. As he seems to be transitioning to a starting role, the biggest question now is – How much improvement can he show as a run-defender? He displays very good pursuit coming unblocked from the backside, but at the point of attack he has some issues holding his ground at times, due to not always playing half the man and getting drawn in and allowing cutback lanes. In the pass game, Odenigbo needs to work on being more successful on secondary maneuvers and not give away opportunities if that initial rush stalls. https://preview.redd.it/pq74mx0mug651.png?width=720&format=png&auto=webp&s=8182390c28e3747fbb0ed0e9ea04426d25cfaf2f
Marcus Davenport
Leading up to the 2018 NFL draft, Bradley Chubb was considered the clear-cut number one edge rusher coming out of N.C. State and after him most people said there was a huge drop-off. The Saints however shocked everybody by trading up to the 14th overall pick – not for a quarterback, but rather an outside linebacker from UTSA. While there isn’t a lot of buzz around Davenport entering year three of his pro career, I can promise that New Orleans did not spend their 2018 and ’19 first-round picks on a player they didn’t believe in. I was very surprised at the time of selection, because I thought they were looking for a more immediate-impact type of player with Drew Brees arriving in his 40s and the team coming off a 13-3 record, but there was never any question about the talent this kid presented. Davenport has missed three games in each of his first two years in the league and “only” put up 10.5 sacks, but he went from 28 QB pressures as a rookie to 50 last season. He might have been even better against the run, helping the Saints finish as the fourth-best rush defense at 91.3 yards allowed per game. So this is kind of a case for the improvement he has already made and I think the coaches in New Orleans already looked at 2019 as his breakout season, but among more casual fans, I believe Davenport will move his name into more of the conversation as one of the better young edge rushers this year. I personally had the young phenom as my 13th overall prospect coming out of San Antonio. When you put on his tape in college, that combination of explosiveness, power and closing burst really stood out. He already flashed the ability to string his hand together to dominate as a pass-rusher, but he needed to do it more consistently, and he showed the shock in his hands to own the point of attack, if he played with better extension. Those to me were certainly coachable areas and with the situation he was in, I thought he could produce in year two or three. Well, we have arrived at his third season and I believe he is ready to roll. I don’t think there’s much to critique as a run-defender about Davenport. He may still be a tick late recognizing some schemes, but when he extends those arms and drops the anchor, you won’t see much movement and he just owns tight-ends. In the pass game, I do believe he needs to broaden his repertoire a little and rush under a little more control, but he has clearly shown signs of becoming a difference-maker in that area as well. He has burst to win around the edge if he times his swipes up correctly, but also the immense power to bull-rush big offensive tackles back right into the quarterback’s lap. If he just learns to convert speed to power a little better and works on finishing that under-and-under he flashes with a follow-through chop, he could be scary. With third-round pick Zack Baun probably rushing outside on sub-packages, it will enable the Saints to move this guy and Cam Jordan more inside and create mismatches that way. https://preview.redd.it/lfbciv0mug651.png?width=720&format=png&auto=webp&s=da4072897c2bdf3e5d48946f7a1ddc2c24292f42
Jeffery Simmons
Simmons was the 19th overall pick for Tennessee last year. In his debut game he had three pressures on eleven pass-rushing snaps. The rest of the season wasn’t as promising, but considering I didn’t expect him to suit up at all in 2019 after tearing his ACL in pre-draft workouts, the fact he did collect valuable on-field experience, playing less than 40 percent of the defensive snaps just once from that point on, only helps him more. Purely based off his tape, I had Simmons as my IDL3, behind only Quinnen Williams and Ed Oliver (both top five prospects for me) and ahead of the two Clemson standouts (Christian Wilkins and Dexter Williams). I even said without the injury he would have been at least around the top ten when I put out my big board a few days ahead of last year’s draft. In limited playing time as a rookie, he recorded 32 tackles, four of them for loss and two sacks. Simmons was an immovable object at Mississippi State and looked to be the same among grown men. I went back and watched the Raiders game in week 14, who have some maulers in the run game and you saw guys almost bounce off the rookie as if he was a brick wall. More importantly, they doubled him on pretty much every single snap he was on the field, probably because of what they had already seen on tape. This guy has some shock in his hands, the ability to look through the blocker on zone-runs and then get back to the gap behind him as the running back decides to cut up into it. He didn’t look as mobile working his way down the line laterally as I thought he did in college and he will have to do a better job working across the face of some blockers, rather than allowing them to wall him off at times. You see him just be a split-second late of actually stopping the ball-carrier rather than allowing him to stumble forward or barely miss altogether. If he gets back to his collegiate form, he can be an elite run-stopper. Having him out there will allow the Titans to run primarily sub-packages with Harold Landry and now Vic Beasley on the edges. The area he still needs to prove himself at is getting after the quarterback. Simmons is very straight-forward as a pass-rusher and didn’t show a lot of finesse to win in that area, getting stuck with stalemates for the most part if he couldn’t drive his guy backwards initially. He flashed a few quick wins on reps with the arm-over, but he has to get off the ball with more of a plan. I believe his ability to shoot upfield, the unbelievable power and just that disruptive style of play will show up big time in his first year at full strength. https://preview.redd.it/7paequ0mug651.png?width=720&format=png&auto=webp&s=2c2f4c31d5e75928dfdc684c30a956b575544062
Ed Oliver
This young man was my fourth overall prospect in last year’s draft behind only Quinnen Williams, Nick Bosa and Josh Allen (the edge rusher). Oliver was an uber-talented, explosive athlete coming out Houston, who I think is still learning the game to some degree. He came in as a freshman with the Cougars and immediately dominated, recording 22 tackles for loss and being named First Team All-American – an honor he would repeat his two other years there as well. While it was obviously a transition from the AAC, where he was just so superior to everybody else physically, compared to lining up against professionals every single week, I thought he started flashing more and more as his rookie season progressed. And while Jordan Phillips just put up double-digit sacks for Buffalo and got a big deal from the Cardinals in the process, I thought Oliver was already the Bills’ best interior pass rusher in December. Overall he recorded five sacks and TFLs each to go with 31 pressures on 374 pass-rushing snaps. That ratio may not be up there with some of the league’s best, but he definitely showed sparks on winning in that area and he finished up playing 53.7 percent of the snaps on defense overall, as part of a deep rotation. Coming out of Houston a year ago, it was clear Oliver needed some time to adjust to the NFL, after he was playing at the nose mostly in college and not having to stay true to his run fits all the time. While there are still moments where his pad-level gets too high and I feel like he is a tick late recognizing the run scheme, at 287 pounds his anchor is excellent and he has the ability to chase down plays laterally. In the pass game his natural power and quickness present problems for the opposition. What really stands out as well is he flexibility he possesses, as can be knocked from the side and somehow regain his balance to keep going and even if he ends up outside his pass-rush lane, he just continues to work. Something Oliver does really well already, which will give him a couple of “easy” sacks in 2020 is set up his loops to the outside on a twist, staying tight and aiming at the outside shoulder of the guard before pivoting outside suddenly. As a rookie, he had his issues going up against the better-schooled guards in the league, especially trying to beat the Steelers’ Ramon Foster and David DeCastro, who landed their hands inside his chest early and Oliver couldn’t gain an advantage. If he can work on being a little more pro-active and rushes the passer with more of a plan overall, I think he could be a Pro Bowler in year two. https://preview.redd.it/z1xft71mug651.png?width=720&format=png&auto=webp&s=58865bb25882e11cf324d4541eb9fd75ea088307
T.J. Edwards
A four-year starter at Wisconsin, Edwards recorded 366 tackles over the course of his career and made several impact plays for the Badgers. Unfortunately he could not participate in any on-field drills at the 2019 NFL combine due to a banged up ankle and if you can trust his pro day results, his athleticism is still below-average. Labelled as a classic college linebacker with limitations to translate his game to the next level, Edwards ultimately went undrafted and signed with the Eagles. As a rookie, he mostly made an impact on special teams, with nine combined tackles on punt and kickoff coverage. He only played 11 percent of the defensive snaps, but when he was on the field, he earned close to an elite grade by Pro Football Focus and got involved on another 21 tackles. When you divide those 122 snaps by the amount of tackles he recorded, that actually gives him the highest tackle rate of any player at the position with at least 100 snaps played. In his first year under defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz, he was mainly utilized on early downs to stop the run, as he was on the field for 89 run downs compared to only 33 pass plays. That is somewhat understandable, since you just have to love his oldschool mind-set in the frame of a well-built, strong guy. Edwards aggressively shoots downhill on inside runs and drops the shoulder on lead-blockers trying to move him out of there, actually stonewalling some of those guys and creating traffic jams that way. At the same time, he shows enough patience with combo-blocks in front of him to not just give away free cutback lanes by overrunning plays, keeping bouncy feet as he deciphers what he sees in the backfield. He offers a sturdy base to absorb the contact by offensive linemen climbing up to him and keeps them at extension, while also showing the mobility to mirror pullers and beat them to the spot. Then he really brings some thump at initial contact on tackles to stop the forward momentum and missed only one attempt on the year (on special teams). It is kind of funny how Edwards was labelled a pure run-stopper because of some athletic limitations, when he actually intercepted ten passes and broke up another 15, while adding eight sacks throughout his career at Wisconsin. He may never be a candidate to shadow more dynamic backs or tight-ends one-on-one, but his feel in zone and ability to get involved as a blitzer should keep him on the field for third downs more. Edwards is also quick to recognize play-action and turn his head for potential crossers behind him before swiveling back towards the quarterback. I believe Edwards will be an excellent replacement for Zach Brown at MIKE, who left in free agency. There are some questions about linebacker trio with Duke Riley and Nathan Gerry, Jatavis Brown or Davion Taylor, but Edwards should be a fixture in the middle on first and second down at least. https://preview.redd.it/lgoeh60mug651.png?width=720&format=png&auto=webp&s=38e707ed0ad52312a4c01fc5f2f16153b2c83245
Byron Murphy
Murphy was my number one corner heading into the 2019 draft ahead of guys like Greedy Williams and DeAndre Baker and he was the first pick in round two. While he started all 16 games for Arizona and missed less than 30 snaps the entire season, I think barely anybody really knows about or watched this guy play for the Cardinals as rookie. There were definitely some learning experiences early on and if you look at the total yards and touchdowns allowed, it’s not a beautiful sight and 78 total tackles for any corner aren’t a great sign either. However, a lot of that had to do with the 105 targets coming his way (fourth-most by any player in the league) due to lining up on the opposite side of Patrick Peterson and the fact he was part of the 31st-ranked pass defense. I thought he improved every single week and he actually put up better marks in coverage than his running mate Peterson, despite being targeted at a much higher rate – 7.7 compared to 9.3 yards allowed per target. Murphy also intercepted one pass and broke up another ten. What I loved about Murphy coming out of Washington last year was his innate feel in zone coverage with an outstanding ability to click-and-close and be a play-maker. He can flip his hips with ease and has that gliding speed to stay on top of routes, rarely allowing opponents to detach from him late. In the run game, Murphy does not shy away from getting involved as a tackler, arriving low and up-ending bigger ball-carriers routinely. You see him fill the D-gap or squeeze plays from the outside on several occasions. He also won’t allow bigger receivers to bully him as blockers, keeping them away from his frame and leveraging the ball accordingly. The rookie mostly played in the slot versus 11 personnel once Patrick Peterson returned in week seven last season and he was utilized as a blitzer off the edge a few times, where he chased running backs down from behind or got into the face of the opposing quarterback. He was heavily exhausted when he was moved in the slot and had to follow receivers back-and-forth across the formation on motions at times. The one thing Murphy really struggled with as a rookie was playing with his back towards the quarterback on slot fades and such as, where receivers could use subtle push-offs and win with their frame, as he almost purely face-guarded them and didn’t even try to snap his head around. The Cardinals have added a super-rangy player is Isaiah Simmons and beef up front to stop the run on early downs, in order to set up third-and-long situations. Allowing the now second-year player to focus more on his coverage and now with veteran Robert Alford being brought in as another outside corner, I see Murphy taking the next step in his developing. By the way, re-watching those Cardinals tapes – Budda Baker is just a freaking baller. https://preview.redd.it/znok171mug651.png?width=720&format=png&auto=webp&s=18e3a805075eebfb64e6cea9726c1ceaaa2bd921
Rock Ya-Sin
At the start of last year’s draft process, Ya-Sin wasn’t a huge name since he had only played one year at the FBS level for Temple. However, after he and now-49ers receiver Deebo Samuel went back and forth at the Senior Bowl, I started falling love with this guy and so did the scouting community. As a rookie with the Colts, wearing number 34 as the spot he was selected at, he started 13 of 15 games and played at least 93 percent of the snaps in ten of them. Ya-Sin was targeted on 15.2 percent of pass plays and he had some struggles, but he also improved a lot from the first to the second half of his debut campaign. There was one really rough showing versus one of the NFL’s young star receivers in Courtland Sutton, when he was penalized five times and was responsible for 75 receiving yards. However, the rest of the season he was called for defensive holding three times and for pass interference just once (40 total yards). That’s not too bad for a rookie who likes to get into the face of receivers and whose play-style out of college could be described as “grabby”. Over the final eight weeks, Ya-Sin held opposing QBs to a passer rating of just 75.8 and didn’t allow any touchdowns (after being responsible for two up to that point), while coming up with his first career pick. Ya-Sin can be described is a very sticky, quick-footed corner. As a rookie, he primarily played outside and faced some tough matchups, while even being asked to travel with some of the game’s elite, such as Michael Thomas. While I’m not saying that always went great, his competitiveness is off the charts and I think he has all the tools to develop into an excellent cover-corner. Ya-Sin was rarely just caught out of position. It was more about struggling to find the ball down the field and panicking a little when he did overcommit initially. The more experience he had, the more comfortable he felt turning his head and making a play on the ball. I still love his competitiveness, rapid feet at the line, ability to read the hips of the receiver and use his length to get his hands on the ball. He had a few textbook reps, staying in phase with the receiver from press alignmenz on hitch or curl routes and knocking the pass down coming out of the break. I thought playing in year one, he was also a pretty good edge-setter in the run game and he didn’t just wait for the ball-carrier to cut back inside to stay clean. You saw him fight off blocks and try to cut down the guy with the ball. Now with Pierre Desir gone in free agency, I expect Ya-Sin to step into the spotlight as Indy’s true CB1. The Colts also brought in veteran Xavier Rhoades, who I thought looked broken down last season, but will help this kid grow mentally as well. https://preview.redd.it/7m1nru0mug651.png?width=720&format=png&auto=webp&s=a0dea575bc086e12e446f31656bfcbab75acacb0
Nasir Adderley
My top-rated safety from a year ago, I thought Adderley was a perfect match with Derwin James on the Chargers, because he has that range for a true deep middle safety to allow Derwin to roam and play more around the line of scrimmage. Unfortunately he had hamstring issues before even being drafted, which forced him to miss mandatory minicamp and most of training camp. He only appeared in one preseason game and then played 10 defensive snaps across four regular season games, making two pretty meaningless tackles, before the Chargers placed him on injured reserve. So with that little experience, Adderley barely meets my criteria, but he was active for four games and I want to grab the opportunity to talk about one of my favorites in last year’s draft. Coming out of Delaware, he filled the alley in the run game with the mind-set of a linebacker, while also showing the ability to cover ground to bail out his team-mates on the back-end. When the ball is completed in front of him, he punishes receivers and when it gets into his hand, he shows off his background as a kick returner, where we had one of the sickest plays I have ever seen, running an opponent over, staring him down and proceeding to go the end-zone. Outside of some questions about the level of competition in the FCS and how much different he moved different than anybody else, I loved everything about his game. The one time we did actually see him play with pros – week four of the preseason – Adderley made one interception and deflected another three passes, while one of them should have been another pick, with a receiver knocking the ball out of his hands late, and he got both hands on another ball down the seams to deny a touchdown. You could see him show up outside the numbers against go-routes and cut in front of deep in-breaking routes, which led to the one INT he actually made. In addition to that, you saw him try to go underneath offensive linemen and be willing to take on some contact on screen plays, instead of staying back and avoiding collisions, getting involved late on scrums or jumping on the back of a receiver trying to catch the ball at the sideline. Now with Chris Harris added to the mix, Casey Hayward on the opposite side and Desmond King in the slot, with the guys they have up front to get after the passer, plus Derwin possibly being sent as a blitzer with his stupid closing burst, Adderley has the ability to gamble and make plays. Plus he gives them somebody who plays with an attitude, which I really appreciated going back to my evaluations coming out of college. Before he can become an impact player, he first needs to beat out Rayshawn Jenkins, but I’d be shocked if he wasn’t on the field for the majority of snaps.
With Week 5's 4-of-5, that brings the total up to a solid 6-of-13. Remember: the main point here is to pick teams games and teams where an upset has a legitimate chance of occurring. On to Week 6. College Football Daily Lines - Week 6. Lines; Futures; Saturday, October 10. 12:00 AM REC (ATS) LINE ML FPI; UAB Blazers. 3-1 (1-3-0)----55.4%: Rice Owls. 0-0 (0-0-0)----44.6%: 4:00 PM REC (ATS ... With that in mind, the latest betting lines for the Week 6 college football slate can be seen below via William Hill Sports Book. Note: All times eastern. Games involving FBS teams facing FCS ... The Razorbacks, who led Georgia at halftime in their first game, will get another chance to make headlines when they take on Auburn this week as 16.5-point underdogs. Below is the complete list of opening lines in Week 6, and remember to follow changes to the College Football odds throughout the week. Week 6 College Football Opening Odds College Football Week 6 odds and betting lines. Includes updated point spreads, money lines and totals lines.
College Football Week 6 Betting Lines / Florida-Auburn, Michigan-iowa, Ohio State-Michigan State
Bet On It - College Football Picks and Predictions for Week 6, Line Moves, Barking Dogs & Best Bets - Duration: 35:45. WagerTalk TV: Sports Picks and Betting Tips 24,804 views 35:45 College Football Week 7 Predictions / LSU-Georgia, Michigan-Wisconsin, Washington-Oregon, 18 Games - Duration: 13:15. MarkRogersTV College Football 484 views 13:15 Bet On It - College Football Picks and Predictions for Week 6, Line Moves, Barking Dogs & Best Bets - Duration: 35:45. WagerTalk TV: Sports Picks and Betting Tips 24,786 views 35:45 Check out our daily College Football picks and predictions at: http://sbrpicks.com/ncaaf In today’s video, we have the Week 6 Closing lines, best picks, and ... VegasInsider.com Expert Kevin Gamble offers up his Best Bets for the College Football weekend. His unique handicapping approach focuses on parlays and live betting. This week's games include SEC ...
