Elephants

Winning at fantasy means making predictions and acting on them prior to other players. To do that, you don't always have the privileges of hindsight and deduction. You will need foresight and inference. I hope to offer a some good if not somewhat inferential arguments for why some early moves on this weekly (if I have time) post.
Fantasy thinking is often over-obsessed with statistical correlations at the expense of firm causal understanding of what is happening on the field. The forest is often lost for the trees. A combination of understanding the game of football, recognizing interconnected changes that will influence teams, and eye testing the games themselves is the best antidote to the groupthink, herd-mentality of fantasy football expertism which, time and again, proves spotty at best in anticipating changes.
Last week I posted this as "Eye-tested Takes" but I realized that's not what I was aiming for. A variety of posters and services watch the whole game and give you maximally thorough takes on every snap. I won't offer much of an opinion on players/teams I don't watch. I'll always watch enough. However, a lot of what I'll make as the case for picking up (or dropping) a player will be based on obvious things that are happening that rankings-myosis may miss.
There's always an elephant in the room that no one want's to acknowledge. This post gives fantasy advice that accounts for the elephants on the field.

Things I'm right about (so far):

1. Rivers Noodle Arm = Colts Lean into Jonathon Taylor:

With the quality of that offensive line, Mack going down, and Rivers looking like shit, Jonathon Taylor may end-up being a top-5 back this year. TY Hilton and Parris Campbell are going to disappoint you.

A bunch of commenters disagreed, insisting Hines was the guy to get and Taylor as a top-5 was nuts. This is an instance of the eye-test making people too smart. Yes, Taylor netted 22 yards on 9 carries week 1. Who cares, he was great in college (larger sample size) and more importantly, Rivers looks SOOO spent that Taylor is the only obvious bell-cow RB for what is probably the best O-line in the league. You want that. Rivers threw it 25 times in week two (down from 44). Taylor had 26 carries, 2 receptions, 110 yards, and 1 touchdown. It was obvious what had to happen in Indy but fantasy groupthink herded everyone toward Hines.
If you had the audacity to ignore me on this (/s), the good news is there's still time. His trade value has skyrocketed on most charts but he's not quite valued as a top back yet. If you get the feel someone is under-valuing him, don't wait longer because his first 2 TD game is going to make him inaccessible in a trade. The Colts defense is also looking good enough to maintain a lead throughout a game, opening-up more run play calls. (Rivers sucking is going to do that all the time anyway).
And if you still don't believe me, watch his highlights from this week and you'll see why he could be such a focal point. He does a lot of things that coaches like to lean-into: great ball security, adds 2-3 yards to the end of runs, explosive speed when he has big holes.
2.Browns Offense is fine:

Don't panic about the Browns offense. Baker Mayfield looked like trash but the running offense actually looked pretty good at times...Stefanski is the guy you need to believe in... The biggest takeway from the game isn't the Browns offense is bad, its that the Ravens defense is great.

Both Browns running back scored multiple TD's and registered more than 150 yards each week 2. Baker continued to suck and it didn't matter. Stefanski's offense is good and his coaching career is a testament to his talent. All-Ivy-League Football Player. First coaching job was in the NFL. They wouldn't let him leave for 14 years because they knew he was a talent.
So don't run from Chubb or Hunt yet. And if you have them both, start them both and don't feel bad (unless you have a clearly better option like Zeke too...then probably favor starting Kareem Hunt the larger your ppr value, but its a tough call). The Browns are a perfect storm that make both startable: (a) Both Chubb and Hunt have top-5 rb talent and it comes across when you watch them on the field. With good combinations of strength and speed, each one is TD risk on every snap. (b) Sefanski divides snaps very well. Both are getting touches-a-plenty. They just signed they're "back-up" RB to a new contract (I mean, how often does that happen in the modern NFL?). KS also divides snaps by drive, unless a drive gets very long, so even if Chubb is doing well, he's going to give Kareem Hunt a whole drive. (c) starting both is fading Baker which is smart. The Browns are going to increasingly realize that their offense is more effective with Baker doing less. They may even move to Case Keenum (their back-up, legit didn't know that last week) and that's fine for Chubb/Hunt.
I wouldn't run from OBJ or Jarvis Landry yet either, though Baker's ineptitude has got to make you worry. Think about what Minnesota offenses did over the years with Diggs, Theilen, etc. Both OBJ and Landry are going to be solid bets for big-play TD's (like OBJ's last Thursday) here and there but likely not breaking the top-10. Still, the talent ceiling is high with both so a buy-low scenario where you get them in a trade could pay-off if you bet on Stefanski more than Mayfield.
3. Deandre Hopkins is the WR1

Deandre Hopkins will be the #1 fantasy receiver this year... And most importantly, the offensive situation in Arizona is the perfect storm for his fantasy situation. Kyler Murray is good, but he's not working his way through progressions yet.

Hopkins nabbed a TD but only had 9 targets this week. I'll admit that I only watched Kyler Murray's highlights so forgive me if its there and I didn't see it, buuuuut...He's not completing passes to 2nd and 3rd reads. Its one read then run. That's great for Hopkins' stats because the further into the season they get, the MORE Hopkins is going to be involved on plays designed to chuck it to him, no matter what. Hopkins is one of those guys that's always open, and Kyler is a smart player who knows that AND knows he's not good enough yet to start looking for someone else if Hopkins is "covered". That may hurt the Cardinals at some point. But Hopkins is getting fed this season.
And obviously, a rash of injuries at WR has made this look to be a better prediction. Hopkins is already a stud in that offense and he's still learning it. His stock is only going up from here.
Its true the WR's new offenses typically do poorly. A couple of reasons why that's not true of Hopkins: (a) he's physically the most gifted receiver in the league. Randy Moss kicked ass his first year with the Patriots. Some players are talented enough that it doesn't take time, as long as they're smart as hell like Randy Moss or (b) Hopkins is an intelligent dude. He negotiated his own contract and didn't fuck it up. He wants to be G.M. Big brained guy, he'll pick up quickly. You can see that on the field, he's constantly looking back at Kyler to make sure he did the right thing on each play. (c) HOF'er in the WR room: Fitz will get him up to speed fast.
Quick note about Kyler Murray: He's tearing it up. One encouraging thing that you might not see how little he's allowing himself to be tackled. As a fantasy owner, that's encouraging because it suggests he can sustain a high running floor and not get injured. And there's an added assurance that he's putting those slides for zero yards (for example) on tape because the coaches see that too and are more willing to call more of those plays down the stretch. Still, I wouldn't compare him to Lamar Jackson last season yet. Lamar Jackson was throwing TD's to his 4th and 5th read in week 1 against the Dolphins last season. Murray may hit a scheme ceiling where defenses, especially good ones, start to take away his 1 and 2 and contain his run game (though it is strong and he has good vision).

Things I was totally wrong about: zero things!

HA! Next section!

Things I'm not right about yet but pretty soon I will be:

1. Joe Burrow AJ Green is going to be good.

If you watch the game, you see Joe Burrow fitting the ball into tight windows in clutch situations. In fact, he wasn't finding a lot of open receivers, he was throwing the ball well/correctly into great coverage and making lemonade. Also, AJ Green is looking fully healthy and like his old self.

Well, AJ Green was targeted 13 times and caught...3 of those passes for 29 yards. So clearly, the chemistry between them was oversold by me last week. Still, 13 targets is encouraging and so is the Bengals inability to run the ball. No matter how much they try, they're wretched run-blocking always leaves them down late in games and in 3rd-and-forever situations. They just let a rookie throw it 61 times.
Another consideration is that Denzel Ward was covering Green all night:

A.J. Green has had an up-and-down career vs. the Browns. Thursday’s game was on the down side, and it had mostly to do with Denzel Ward.
Green had three catches for 29 yards. Overall, Ward broke up three passes against the Bengals. And according to Next Gen Stats, Ward was making life difficult for Joe Burrow all night, forcing eight tight window passes in 11 targets as the nearest defender.

Green is still pretty low on trade value charts but stands to have a huge upside as Burrow's primary target.
2. Rodgers is back.

...are there really any physical traits that are important to his game that would fade significantly at 36 year's old? I didn't see any missing zip off of his throws. I did see fucking darts getting tossed all over the field into tiny windows.

Aaron Jones is the #1 fantasy RB right now so obviously saying Rodgers is fully back is pre-mature. However, he is impressing with some very, very pretty darts.
Also, the elephant on the field for the Packers is that Aaron Rodgers is a player driven by ego. Not a knock on him, he's just a guy who needs mojo to play at his finest. Maybe it required the stimulation of an insulting draft pick to prod him back into his HOF form. I'm not saying Rodgers can be a top 3 QB this year with Jackson and Murray running so well, but 4 or 5 doesn't seem out of reach.
Rodgers is pff top-graded QB right now btw.

Fresh takes:

1.The Ravens are the best defense in the NFL.
The loss of Earl Thomas is doesn't matter as much as what has been gained with Patrick Queen and L.J. Fort. Queen is incredibly fast and explosive underneath, getting into the backfield and making big plays. And L.J. Fort (top rated pff lb right now) combine to give them rangey-coverage, tackling, and pass break-up ability over the middle they didn't have before which has further weaponized they're depth at CB (Humphrey, Peters, Smith). Peters specifically is a ball hawk that's found a great home in Baltimore; he couldn't scheme well anywhere else but Harbaugh has found a way to give him the freedom to ball hawk. Over the long haul, Harbaugh has maintained a great defense, regardless of departures/changes, for years and years. When he has this much talent, his defenses are typically dominant.
Be warry of starting iffy players against them at any position.
They're worth trading for, I think the turnovedef TD potential makes them worth it.
2. J.K. Dobbins will break-out out as the preferred option in the Ravens backfield.
Mark Ingram and Gus Edwards have both proven to be reliable RB's for the Raven offense. But Ingram is 30 with over 200 carries in 3 of the last 4 seasons. Edwards has been reliable, a home-grown UDFA. But at 238lbs and without elite speed, he's leaving many big runs on the table.
Dobbins didn't attend the combine. But ran a 4.44 40...in high school:

Dobbins posted a 4.44s 40-yard dash, 4.09s short shuttle and a 43.1-inch vertical jump as a high school senior at the event. There are also many reports that Dobbins squatted over 700 pounds.

He has power running balance and break-out speed that NONE of the other backs in Baltimore have. 4th rounder Justice Hill was their attempt of to develop that speed last year but didn't break out.
A couple of elephants make this one a good bet:
(a) Lamar's durability -- right now, he's taking a bunch of carries because he's the only one in their backfield that has the speed to break huge runs. If Dobbins can fill that role, Lamar Jackson can afford to take fewer chances and John Harbaugh can opt to only drop him back to pass 7 times in the second half when they're winning, like what happened in week 2.
(b) that defense -- Baltimore's defense is going to be great enough this year to take over games, making steady doses of run plays inevitable as they'll spend a lot of games up by 2 scores. Yes, they were up like that a lot last year but their only homerun hitter in the backfield was Lamar (see above, Justice Hill wasn't getting it done).
Here's an example: this is a shot from Gus Edwards' 22 yard scamper last week:
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https://preview.redd.it/mhhhpzmkrxo51.png?width=1920&format=png&auto=webp&s=3cdf46ac4bcce3e503729f909c0e787f85459eb9
The Ravens offensive line is good at opening holes like this. While it didn't prove important in this game (BAL was up 30-16 at the time), each run like this where a more explosive player could scored is an opportunity cost for the people calling plays. And its not just points left behind, its points scored while Lamar is watching like a fan. Its points that could allow more aggressive defensive play calling. If you're a coach for Baltimore, you don't necessarily want Lamar to have a gaudy stat-line every week if you're winning. If he can throw 16 passes in a game and then sit-out the 4th quarter, that's ideal from the franchise's perspective (though not so much for Fantasy managers). Each Ingram/Edwards run that coulda been a touchdown means there's more time on the field for Lamar, larger portion of the game where they're not playing a dominant lead, and higher chance that they'll lose because points were left on the field. They need someone else hitting home runs in the running game.
Am I fading Lamar because of all of this? Not yet. Eye test = that guy is a singular talent. His throwing motion is smooth like Vick's, just a gifted, effortless release. He's also great at mostly avoiding contact (though all contact is bad contact if you're his coaches). Great decision maker too. Makes multiple reads on plays. Can't say enough about how great of player he is. Still, Baltimore is well put-together enough that they may be able to functionally win without him. So don't be surprised if, especially approaching the playoffs, Baltimore starts calling plays that don't involve as much Lamar. What's scary is that they may be a complete football team without him and he's the reigning MVP.
Finally, Dobbins had two carries last week. One was for a 44 yard gain where the blocking was good but not nearly as good as the image above. Even if the transition to him isn't fast, he could force the issue like Chubb did his rookie year, gaining 100 yards on 3 carries in a game.
No matter what, the Ravens will run by committee but there will come a point where the player to start out of the trio is Dobbins without a doubt.
3. Minshew is the truth and his team situation makes him a great fantasy player.
Minshew isn't the most talented QB in the league. But above all things, he is competitive and scrappy. The Jags are good but not great so he's going need a lot of that scrappy-iness (lol, just say that sentence out loud, you'll hear it). James Robinson is very good and they're going to lean on him a lot. But when the time for much needed yards and points, it seems like the Jags tag Gardner Minshew II's Id in at offensive coordinator. Minshew isn't likely going to be top-5 qb but he might make the top 10 and is likely easier to get than other top targets.
Part of the reason DJ Chark isn't getting the production folks hoped is because Minshew is effectively spreading the ball around. Good for the jags, bad for fantasy owners. I wouldn't panic.
One of his targets I picked-up to stash is Laviska Shenault Jr. He's getting a legit number of carries each week and averaging over 10 yards per reception. He's an interesting pick-up because he doubles as handcuffs for Robinson. Seems like his carry count could go up to 10ish no problem if the Jags lost Robinson. So pay attention to what position he's listed in your league, scoring rules about how carries count in ppr, etc. But he passes the eye test, very shifty and fast on the field.
4. Teams that are quickly turning into dumpster fires that you should across-the-board fade:
Jets
Gase is the worst. Never underestimate the ability of a shitty boss to ruin a workspace and make everyone fucking hate themselves, even though they're well compensated to play a game for a living. Listen, I know there's always gems on bad teams. But I have high blood pressure. So tuning into games with players I need to play well and watching the offense go 3-and-out 5 times in a row...I'm literally too old for that shit now so I try to stray-away from dumpster fire teams.
Vikings
Kubiak has got some big Stefanski shoes to fill and he's doing a bad job so far. I wouldn't panic about Dalvin Cook yet but another bad couple of weeks and I'd start shopping him. See the Browns thing above: Stefanski may have made the Vikings offense look better than it actually was for a decade. Combine that with the defense whose secondary would be better if they were scare crows and you're looking at a team that can't plan to run the ball for more than a quarter or 2.
Teams to be worried about:
Broncos
Whew, the injuries. They're basically just starting with new team. We'll see how things go.
Detroit
Matt Patricia may have lost this team. And coaches like him don't recover team faith/confidence well in a loss-spiral.
Texans
BoB is going to crash that plane into a mountain while we all watch. Poor Watson, just watching Deandre Hopkins ball-out. One thing you can still bet on for awhile out of the Texans offense; Bill O'Brien is ego- and career-invested in David Johnson doing great things. He'll role with him when he shouldn't to prove to everyone that he was right to trade Nuk. Its dumb. But he's dumb.

Fortune Favors The Bold (FFTB) Predictions

WARNING: What you're about to read is not necessarily good fantasy advice, but things for me to say "told you so" about a week from now. I take no responsibility for any money you lose (and all responsibility for the money you win). Still, Alexander the Great said, Fortune Favors the Bold.

1. JK Dobbins scores more fantasy points than CEH this week. (This prediction is backed-up by the time-honored tradition of spitting in one's hand and shaking on it so this shit is serious. Its also painful because I'm a Chiefs fan.)
   
2. Laviska Shenault scores a running and a receiving touchdown tonight.
   
3. Jonathon Taylor is the RB1 this week and its not close.
   
4. Danny Dimes throws 3 TD's this week against the 49ers.
   

I'm probably wrong about most of this shit but FORTUNE FAVORS THE BOLD!
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Thanks for reading! If I continue to be kind mostly right and people find it a good read, I'll keep posting these each week. Good luck!
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EDIT: Thanks for the awards and upvotes strangers! I'll bring the column back next week. Appreciate the comments too, thanks for the banter, shit-talk, and criticism. I'll be spittin in palms again soon.
EDIT AGAIN: Thanks again for the feedback. This is fun and I'm going to enjoy doing it again next week. Some of the comments have suggested that the post doesn't really go out on many limbs. I'll do that more in the future. I've also added an extra section with a few "FFTB predictions" for this week.

Well, we lost, which means we are back to being bad. Jokes aside, the win last weekend was fun, but as I think today showed, it was merely a mirage. The evidence leans toward Matt Patricia not being a good coach, and I think it will be best that he and Detroit go in separate ways at the seasons end.
And to be clear, Patricia still has a chance to turn the season around and get Detroit into contention. I think people forget that the Titans were 2-4 last year before winding up in the AFC Championship Game. I absolutely do not believe this will happen for Detroit, but rather, just being realistic that Detroit's schedule will ease up here soon enough, and maybe that gives them the confidence they need to make some things happen. But unless Patricia makes the playoffs, I am prepared, even eager I dare say, to move on.
Now, I am obviously not Sheila Ford. But if I were, this is how I would approach this offseason.

General Manager

The biggest question, should Detroit falter is what happens to Bob Quinn. While most would probably assume that Quinn and Patricia's fates are tied together, I think it could be a little bit more complicated than that. Allow me to elaborate on this.
First and foremost, my view of the role of the GM is to work in conjunction with your head coach to create a vision for what the team will look like. The coach then goes about implementing that vision on the practice field and in games, developing and coaching the team to wins in whatever fashion they think they can. The GM goes about implementing that vision in the free agent markets, on the trade blocs, and in the draft room.
In this sense, I think you could actually argue that Bob Quinn has been effective. He has built the Detroit Lions in the image of the New England Patriots, largely by bringing in former Patriots and players with a similar skill set. In terms of swiftly restyling the team, Quinn has arguably done exactly this. He's given Patricia personnel that match the scheme both in the draft and in free agency. As the executioner of this flawed vision, Quinn has managed to reshape them. He is effective in building a wannabe Patriots. Most will focus on the wannabe Patriots, as the issue, and to a large degree, they aren't wrong. But what they miss is that Quinn has done it effectively.
Now, there are surely some poor decisions mixed in there. Quinn missed on some draft evaluations like Jarrad Davis and Teez Tabor. He did ship out Quandre Diggs for pennies and missed the window to extend Kenny Golladay before it could get more expensive. This isn't to say that Quinn is perfect, in fact, I'm not even arguing Quinn is a relatively good GM, just that he effectively executed a vision. Personally, I wish he had embraced a better vision, and for that, I'd have no issue firing him. But rather, just making the case that Quinn could stick around for another coaching hire. After all, it was Quinn who fired Jim Caldwell for his utter inability to beat good teams, only to turn around and hire buddy buddy Matty P who struggles to even beat bad teams.
If Quinn is gone, let's look at some of the names to replace him....

General Manager Candidates

The first name that usually comes to everyone's mind is Colts assistant GM Ed Dodds. A widely regarded scout during his time in Seattle, Colts current GM Chris Ballard swiped Dodds away by making him his number two in Indy. He's played a big part in rebuilding the Colts roster, whether bringing in guys like Denico Autry or Kenny Moore, or drafting players like Braden Smith and Darius Leonard. While he's clearly a top option for just about anyone, there are some questions about whether or not he even wants the spotlight of a GM position. From Bleacher Report's Matt Miller: "he doesn't particularly like the attention that comes with being a decision-maker and might not even have the desire to be a general manager." Personally, I don't think someone who is hesitant to take on a general manager role in the first place would be eager to go to the Lions, given our horrid history.
Dodds was from the line of Seahawks GM John Schneider, and he has a few other deputies who could be interesting candidates, notably Seahawks co-director of player personnel Scott Fitterer. Originally a scout himself, he's been in Seattle for awhile now, and was huge piece of the 2010-2012 draft classes that produced Russell Wilson, Richard Sherman, Earl Thomas, and Bobby Wagner. Additionally, he serves alongside fellow co-director of player personnel, Trent Kirchner, who also figures to be an intriguing candidate.
Detroit may want to consider getting someone with experience running their own show, and if that's the case, Saints assistant GM Jeff Ireland could be an interesting name. Ireland was the Dolphins GM from 2008 until 2013, a time when they weren't as bad as they have been the past few seasons. Over his stretch, they peaked in year one with a playoff berth, and proceeded to go 7-9 just about every year following. So why would Detroit be interested in Ireland? Well, he has had time to reflect on the mistakes made during his time, and spent the past few years working in a better organization (the Saints) where you get an idea of new ways to approach things.
I live in Denver, and happen to be connected to a few Broncos employees out here, one of whom would actually have respectable insight, so I texted him and asked "who should Detroit consider for a new GM?". His response was 49ers VP of player personnel Adam Peters who was with Denver for a few years during their Super Bowl run. He ran college scouting in Denver, and now works alongside John Lynch in building the monstrosity that is the 49ers roster. He even made one the "GM candidates to know" lists that people put out, so it seems some others would share the hype.
Looking at other successfully run organizations, the Baltimore Ravens and director of player personnel Joe Hortiz come to mind. Horitz has been in Baltimore under both Ozzie Newsome and DeCosta, so he's clearly seen what a well-run organization looks like, one that isn't exclusively tied to a legendary head coach. He's played a large role in scouting (1998-2016), a time in which Baltimore added stars like Ronnie Stanley, Za'Darius Smith, C.J Mosley, Brandon Williams, Kelechi Osemele, and Jimmy Smith amongst plenty of others.
If Detroit wants to take a wild swing at the television personalities, like the Raiders did with Mike Mayock, the top candidate there would probably be ESPN analyst Louis Riddick, who was a pro scout with the Redskins for a few years, and worked as director of player personnel for both the Redskins and Eagles.
One person I just want to clearly rule out is Patriots director of player personnel Nick Caserio. First and foremost, if Bill O'Brien survives the 2020 season as head coach of the Texans, Caserio will be named their new GM. Second, Detroit absolutely needs to avoid another born and raised Patriots executive. So no Caserio. If so, we riot.
I think, ultimately for me, Ireland has too much baggage, Riddick is too much of a wild card, and Dodds isn't likely to leave for Detroit. Therefore, my top target is probably going to be Scott Fitterer, but I'd be thoroughly pleased with Kirchner, Peters, or Hortiz.

Head Coaching Candidates

Not even debating it. Matt Patricia is out. Between an archaic scheme, contentious relations with star players, and poor awareness with the media, Patricia hasn't shown he's worth it. We will be parting ways with him, and I'm sure he'll end up with the Patriots, Giants, or Dolphins in some assistant capacity.
The first name to mention is Chiefs offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy. Everyone knows the deal here, I'm not getting too much into it. Same with Michigan-native, 49ers defensive coordinator Robert Saleh. We'll be discussing less talked about candidates here.
One name that does not get a lot of hype is Ravens offensive coordinator Greg Roman. He remains one of the absolute best at tailoring offenses to create dynamic rushing attacks with dual-threat quarterbacks. While Matthew Stafford isn't exactly a dual-threat QB, perhaps a pairing of Roman and OSU QB Justin Fields could be a lot of fun to watch. Roman has called offenses for both Harbaugh brothers, in San Francisco with Jim where he created an offense for Colin Kaepernick, and now in Baltimore with John and Lamar Jackson.
One Kansas City coach who doesn't get as much hype as he probably should is Chiefs special teams coordinator Dave Toub. He's a trusted assistant for Andy Reid, and historically speaking, special teams coordinators actually have a fairly high success rate. He's been highly regarded for his leadership within the Chiefs franchise these past few years.
If Detroit wants to keep a defensive focus at the head coaching spot, then Colts defensive coordinator Matt Eberflus is one of the best in the business. Quoting CBS here, "Energetic and disciplined, he's Frank Reich's most well-rounded companion". Eberflus runs a fairly creative defensive scheme that has allowed guys like Darius Leonard to thrive, focusing on getting elite athletes across the board. His defense is so fun, that in Week 3 they actually caught more touchdowns passes from Jets QB Sam Darnold than Darnold was able to throw to members of his own team.
Another defensive mind who should be under consideration is Ravens defensive coordinator Don "Wink" Martindale. He's been there LB coach since 2012, and their coordinator since 2018 as the Ravens have continued to roll out good defensive units no matter who they have at hand. Martindale's defense is quite the opposite of Patricia's, they blitz like crazy and they mix up their coverage often.
If Detroit is willing to give a head coach a second chance (the results on this trend are pretty mixed btw), then Bills defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier would probably be the most intriguing second chance candidate. Quoting SBN here, "His three-year stint as the Vikings' head coach saw him lead the team to the playoffs in 2012 followed by a sharp fall in 2013. But it's hard to blame him too much when he was choosing between Christian Ponder, Josh Freeman, and Matt Cassel at quarterback". While Sean McDermott is a defensive-minded head coach in Buffalo already, he's credited Frazier with a major role in turning the Bills into one of the top defenses in the NFL.
Turning to offense, we have another Bills coordinator, Brian Daboll calling the shots on offense. Daboll was with the Patriots for a few years as their tight ends coach, before departing and finding success away from Belichick, winning a national title during his time as Alabama's offensive coordinator in 2017, before coming to Buffalo and molded the raw potential of Josh Allen into the dominant player he has been this year.
Former Lions backup QB Kellen Moore, now the offensive coordinator of the Dallas Cowboys at only 32 years old figures to be a hot name soon. He's helped Dak Prescott continue to build his game, going from a steady game manager to a playmaker himself. Moore's a little young, but is one of the most prolific offensive minds in CFB.
Also in the rising star mold is Buccaneers offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich, a former star QB himself. Leftwich has worked under Bruce Arians for a few years now, and helped create an offense that put up prolific numbers with Jameis Winston (and a lot of interceptions as well).
Colts offensive coordinator Nick Sirianni has also gotten some hype from people in coaching circles, as he's helped the Colts manage the unexpected fallout of Andrew Luck's surprise retirement. If he can milk the remaining production out of Phillip Rivers, he'll be an intriguing candidate who has worked under a few quality head coaches already.
Another offensive coordinator that merits some consideration is Titans offensive coordinator Arthur Smith. He played a major role in transitioning the Titans from Marcus Mariota to Ryan Tannehill, a move that helped propel them all the way to the AFC Championship game behind the effective duo of Derrick Henry's rushing ability and Tannehill's effectiveness off the play action pass,
Usually teams don't hire position coaches, but it's not entirely out of the blue, especially if that position coach does have interim head coaching experience like Saints tight ends coach Dan Campbell. Campbell was Miami's interim head coach in 2015, going 5-7 after Joe Philbin was fired. Campbell also played TE for the Lions back in the second half of the 2000's, posting one of the better seasons a Lions tight end had at that point in 2006. He's considered an exceptional leader in the Saints organization.
The Panthers brought in college head coach Matt Rhule this past year, and if Detroit is looking to do something similar, the three names to watch would probably be OSU head coach Ryan Day, a former Chip Kelly protege who has somehow made the Buckeyes even more deadly and efficient than they were under Urban Meyer, Oklahoma heisman producehead coach Lincoln Riley, who is responsible for getting Baker Mayfield and Kyler Murray drafted #1 overall, and lastly Florida head coach Dan Mullen, a former Urban Meyer protege who has had immense success at Mississippi State and now at Florida so far.
There's probably some other candidates I did not dive into. Though similar to Caserio and the GM tree, absolute pass on Patriots offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels. No need to try that one a second time.
Personally, I like a lot of these candidates. There's plenty of diversity in schemes, backgrounds, leadership styles, etc. My favorite, however, is Bills offensive coordinator Brian Daboll. The work he's done with Josh Allen is fantastic, as he's crafted an offense that fits Allen's style, and whether he'd want to keep Stafford or draft his replacement, I'd have the utmost faith that he'd mold that QB in similar fashion.

Current Personnel

For the current personnel, it'll be important to identify which players have a future in Detroit. Whether that's based on scheme fit, age, health, cap implication, etc. Taking a look at the roster, here's my best guess, outside of one position, which is detailed in a separate section below.
Running back is a good spot for Detroit, regardless of what happens to current starting RB Adrian Peterson. I like RB Kerryon Johnson, but I am absolutely against a sizeable contract extension. Personally, I don't think paying running backs anything more than like $5 mil per year is a good investment, regardless of what back it is. So, he's fine for another season under contract, but may end up parting ways after that. Drafting his replacement in RB D'Andre Swift was a wise move. I actually like the idea of taking good running backs (2nd-3rd round) every other season. That way you never have to pay them and always have fresh legs.
Wide receiver will require some effort this offseason. Quinn massively screwed us by not extending WR Kenny Golladay prior to the season. Only leaves more time for larger contracts to be signed. For example, his spotract market value went up from $16 mil per season to almost $19 mil per season because of additional deals being signed. And with a lowered cap, that's gonna be problematic. The Lions should have at least a WR3/4 in WR Quintez Cephus, and WR Geronimo Allison opted out, meaning Detroit retains his contract for 2021. They'll likely need to draft someone early and sign another veteran, maybe even bringing back Jones or Amendola for a 1-year deal.
Tight end is pretty straight forward. TE T.J. Hockenson was a top-10 selection, and is starting to look like a very good weapon for the offense going forward. His backup, TE Jesse James is also simple: his contract is too large to retain him if he continues his mediocre play. If he can more consistently play like he did against the Cardinals, they may keep him. If not, cut for cap space. Bryant and Nauta are sort of unknowns at this point.
The offensive line may be Detroit's best spot going forward. LT Taylor Decker has been earning that contract extension so far, looking very good at this point. C Frank Ragnow will need his own contract extension soon, but he's been performing as one of the best centers in the NFL, and should remain an integral part of the unit. G Jonah Jackson looks promising as well in his rookie campaign. Detroit will have LG Joe Dahl under contract for one more year, and has G Logan Stenberg developing behind him. The bigger question comes with RT Hal Vaitai and RT Tyrell Crosby. If Vaitai continues to play poorly, he'll be cut after 2021. Crosby could easily be replaced with a better player by that time as well, but for now serves a valuable role as a decent enough spot starter.
Defense is almost entirely dependent on who a new head coach would bring in to call the shots. Many of the players on Detroit's roster are scheme-specific to the old Patriot 3-4 scheme that Patricia loves to run. Let's just assume that, regardless of the new coach, it'll be a bit more diverse, modern scheme.
On the defensive line, DE Trey Flowers is pretty scheme versatile funny enough. He can play SDE in a 4-man front or iDE in a 3-man. His contract will also pretty much require the new coach to make it work with him. And who knows, Flowers has had the intentional misfortune of playing under no-blitz Patricia, so chances are a more aggressive scheme could give him some help in pass rushing. DE Julian Okwara is also pretty versatile. He could be a 4-3 WDE or a 3-4 OLB and was a good pass rusher at Notre Dame. His brother, DE Romeo Okwara is frankly just not very good. If Detroit goes to a 4-man front in a new coach, they'll definitely want a replacement for Romeo, who is serviceable depth, but not much more. DE Austin Bryant hasn't shown enough to warrant an opinion one way or the other.
Interior, DT Danny Shelton is probably not gonna fit in a new scheme. He's an inconsistent run defender who offers little in the pass rush department. DT Nick Williams is a bit more versatile, but the issue is that he's just not very good. His career is as a pretty bland back-end rotational piece. One good season in Chicago would appear to be an anomaly. Cutting either of these two (each set to make around $5 mil cap hits in 2021) would save a net $4 mil in much needed cap space. Behind them, DT Kevin Strong is relatively versatile, but not that good. He's still young and cheap, however, so could still find a role as depth. The big question will be DT Da'Shawn Hand, who has had an inconsistent, but promising career thus far. He can fill a pretty similar role to Flowers, perhaps even being able to play as a 3-tech DT in some schemes (cough, Dan Quinn defensive coordinator). He's a piece that could at least find a useful role under a new regime, but expect Shelton and Williams to be purged within 2 years.
Linebacker is where you can pretty much just get rid of everyone. LB Jamie Collins is clearly the best player in the group, but I still wouldn't bet he'd be a for sure keep for a new regime. He struggled outside the Patriots system, during his exile to Cleveland. I think he could find a role as a 3-4 OLB, rather than the 4-3 ILB/OLB hybrid, but it's still hard to peg him in other schemes. He'll be with Detroit regardless in 2021 because of his contract however. LB Jarrad Davis should just walk at this point. Detroit is better when he's not on the field. LB Christian Jones is similar to Collins, in that he's a poor fit for most schemes, but the difference is he's not nearly as good as Collins. Could probably just trade him to whatever team Matt Patricia ends up on.
The hardest part about a transition to a new scheme would be giving up on younger guys like LB Jahlani Tavai. He's shown some flashes, but really isn't much of a pass rusher and is too old school for modern schemes. Trading Tavai this offseason to a Patriots-style team (Giants, Miami, Patriots, etc.) would be best for both groups.
Now, two guys who could be interesting to bring back are LB Jalen Reeves-Maybin and LB Elijah Lee. Both are currently fish out of water, as they're not great scheme fits for Patricia's defense. They both are on expiring deals however. I'd probably like to see Reeves-Maybin brought back in a new regime, simply because the chance for him to actually find success would go up in a scheme that fits his strengths a bit better.
At cornerback, you have a pretty good foundation. CB Jeffrey Okudah and CB Amani Oruwariye are both pretty fluid athletes with the ability to thrive in multiple schemes. In fact, Oruwariye could potentially be even better in a Cover 3 scheme, should Detroit find someone who deploys that philosophy. Similarly, CB Justin Coleman is pretty versatile, especially out of the slot. He's excelled in the Seahawks Cover 3 scheme (which is honestly my recommendation for what kind of defense to run), but is still good in man coverage. Those three give Detroit a great start. CB Darryl Roberts is built more for Patricia's scheme, so probably won't be back, but I'd expect Detroit to find another veteran like him to fill out the two deep. CB Desmond Trufant is definitely a man coverage corner, and is also old and with a checkered injury history recently. We always knew Trufant was more of a veteran bridge to Okudah and Oruwariye taking over.
Safety is interesting. S Tracy Walker is a rising star and honestly can play any scheme. He's a baller. S Will Harris is not. Maybe a new scheme gets him sorted out, but at the same time, his biggest issue is that he can't cover in man and he can't tackle. Kind of hard to be a slot safety when you struggle with that. S Duron Harmon is a quality Cover 1 free safety, but he's on an expiring contract. Detroit will likely need to find a new starter there, as Harris isn't ideally suited to free safety, and S C.J. Moore is more of a special teams piece than a starting caliber player. We still need to see more from S Jayron Kearse looks like before making decisions there.
Special Teams will require some investment this offseason. Detroit's punting god, Jack Fox, is an ERFA, meaning Detroit can bring him back for pretty cheap. They may just want to reward him and sign him to a deal for a few seasons (though COVID cap implications may prevent that). Both K Matt Prater and LS Don Muhlbach are on expiring deals, so either new deals for them, or replacements. Lions backup LS Steven Wirtel has gotten some praise as a future NFL LS, so perhaps they hand the reins over to him, given that he'd cost half what Muhlbach would, and the Lions will need every penny this offseason.

Quarterback 2021 and Beyond

If there is a new regime change, then it's not out of the realm of possibility that they look into the prospect of finding Matthew Stafford's successor. Stafford will be 33-years old in 2021, and while QB's are still able to continue playing at a high level into their late 30's, for example, Roethlisberger and Matt Ryan and Brady and Brees have all put together quality seasons lately, despite their older age. However, 35 is traditionally the drop-off age, and for a QB who relies on arm talent, it is most definitely something to watch and consider.
I'll say this first and foremost, if Detroit ends up in a position to select QB Trevor Lawrence out of Clemson, you pull the trigger on that and sort things out later. The two options behind him are QB Justin Fields, a dual-threat option out of Ohio State, and QB Trey Lance, an athletic, efficient QB out of North Dakota State. Now, personally, I'm a bit skeptical of Trey Lance. I think NDSU sets everything up for him on a platter, and the more film you watch on Lance, the more I find he struggles on full-field reads. If you can isolate his playbook to a half-field read, then I think he crushes it, but the troubles outside of that, added into the large talent gap between NDSU and literally anyone else in the FCS, makes me hesitant. To me, Lance is a slightly higher upside version of Titans QB Ryan Tannehill. In that sense, I don't really think he'd be worth the investment if Detroit is selecting in the top-15.
Now, Justin Fields is growing on me, admittedly. Rewatched a handful of his OSU games and continue to find his ability to dissect coverage to be a lot more advanced than I recalled during the season. He has a big arm, and has one of the most coveted traits nowadays: the ability to make plays when the original structure breaks down. I think, at this point, I'd probably be sold on Fields, but not on Lance, though honestly, if they did hire a competent offensive mind like Bieniemy or Daboll, I wouldn't object to it, as I think anyone who can get such massive leaps out of Josh Allen could probably get the most out of Trey Lance as well.
The bigger issue I do have is whether or not Detroit should move on from Stafford at this point. A few things can all be true at the same time, and four things I'm going to mention all are true.

1. Matthew Stafford is not playing as well as he was in the first half of 2020, and the issues don't exactly seem to be tied to any injury.
2. Despite not playing as well as 2020, Stafford is still one of the better QB's in the league, ranking 11th in passing yards (1,017) and 7th in touchdown passes (8). That kind of production wins games with a better defense.
3. Detroit would be marginally restricted in the ability to build a roster around a large QB cap hit like Stafford's.
4. The issues holding Detroit back most (its defense) would not be solved with a new quarterback. There are plenty examples of promising young quarterbacks being broken because they were put in less than ideal situations....Sam Darnold in New York being just the latest example. Unless Detroit can build a competent defense, it will not actually matter who the quarterback is.

All that just to say, let's all chill out a bit when dealing with each other's takes on what to do at QB. We don't have to draft a new QB, that denies so many of the bigger issues. We also do not have to keep Matthew Stafford, that denies the reality that plenty of teams have found a new QB can elevate the play of the team, helping them go from good to great (see Chiefs moving Alex Smith for Mahomes), and that even with Stafford, Detroit remains mediocre.
Personally, I think it's better to build a good roster and then make the change at quarterback. Right now, I think Detroit is set-up well for its OL going forward, and probably will be decent at WRB with Golladay and Hockenson and Swift and Kerryon, but the defense will continue to lose us games, and I'd hate to waste the early years of a cheap rookie QB still trying to build the roster around him. And personally, I think every bit as good as Fields and Lance is USC QB Kedon Slovis as a potential QB to target in the 2022 draft class.

2021 Free Agency Complications

Now, truly, I have no clue what's going to happen with this, but Detroit, along with the rest of the league, is not going to be overflowing with cap space. Minimal fans in the stadium means no ticket revenue. Some doomsday predictions have the cap going down as far as $175 million. Realistically speaking, I wouldn't anticipate Detroit entering the offseason with anything more than $15-20 million in cap space. If you're trying to overhaul a new scheme with new personnel, that'll be kind of tough.
Detroit has a few pieces it can cut, however. Some have been mentioned....Jesse James, Danny Shelton, Nick Williams. All could open up a little bit of change (over $10 mil if all 3) which would be majorly beneficial. Another one who could go is CB Desmond Trufant, which would free up $6 million. QB Chase Daniel could easily have a restructured contract to open up in between $1-2 million. G Joe Dahl would save $3 million if he was cut, but I don't see that really happening, as Dahl's a good bargain for a quality enough starting G. Maybe if Logan Stenberg develops into a quality piece Dahl could be traded, but that seems unlikely.

2021 Free Agency Targets

To remake the team, I'm first going to identify a few veterans who could help accelerate a quick turnaround defensively. Assuming I've gotten my wish of Detroit Lions head coach Brian Daboll, then the offense wouldn't need much reconfiguration.
There would honestly be two players I'd want Daboll to bring with him from Buffalo. They are...
Bills G Jon Feliciano - a powerful run blocker, Feliciano could either compete with Dahl outright, or simply serve as the first back-up at guard...the new and improved Kenny Wiggins so to speak.
Bills LB Matt Milano - Detroit will need modern linebackers, and Milano would be an excellent one to start with. He can cover, get sideline to sideline, and make plays in the box. I think Buffalo ends up re-signing him however.
Now, I don't want to simply switch from the Patriots West to the Bills West. But I do generally believe that any new coach should try and bring 2 or 3 players who are familiar, if for nothing more than putting pieces in place that can help introduce the new system to the current roster.
Some others however.
Detroit will probably need another starting wide receiver in free agency, and while I would absolutely love to get Chiefs WR Sammy Watkins to Detroit, he'll probably be a bit out of the price range, given how many pieces Detroit could need on defense. Some of the more financially plausible options would likely be Jags WR Chris Conley, 49ers WR Kendrick Bourne, Rams WR Josh Reynolds, or maybe Bengals WR John Ross.
Similarly, I'd love to go after Bills TE Tyler Kroft as another piece to work with Hockenson, but he'd probably be too pricey, and I imagine Buffalo will retain him rather than let him hit the market. Jags TE Tyler Eifert, Titans TE MyCole Pruitt, or perhaps Seahawks TE Jacob Hollister would all make a bit more sense. This would be dependent on cutting Jesse James in search of an upgrade.
Detroit is set on starting OL, but could use a depth piece with Wiggins and Aboushi both on expiring deals. Chargers G Dan Feeney has starting experience, though most of the options here are pretty mediocre. Could actually argue that retaining Wiggins would be the wisest course of action.
Defensive Tackle will be a MAJOR spot to address, as Detroit currently doesn't have a quality group there, and scheme change could make it worse. There are some big names like Saints DT Sheldon Rankins or Michigan-native Raiders DT Johnathan Hankins, whom Detroit should've brought in awhile ago. Broncos DT Shelby Harris is a good interior pass rusher who can play multiple roles. I'm guessing Detroit doesn't pony up the money for Giants DT Dalvin Tomlinson but I wouldn't hate that.
Defensive end would be a need if Detroit went to a 4-man front, as you'd want an upgrade over Romeo Okwara. Assuming Detroit isn't going for the big names like Vikings DE Yannick Ngakoue or Titans DE Jadeveon Clowney, a more sensible option would a stopgap option like Washington EDGE Ryan Kerrigan, who can play really any edge spot well. Colts DE Denico Autry would be plenty of fun, and if the Lions hired someone like Matt Eberflus, I'd want them to for sure make that move. One of the more under-the-radar pieces that could be more fiscally responsible would be Saints DE Trey Hendrickson.
If they go more of a traditional 3-4, then adding an upgrade over Christian Jones would be the move there. Kerrigan would still fit that one well, but other options could be Chargers OLB Melvin Ingram. Perhaps a head coach Martindale would want to bring GVSU grade OLB Matt Judon to Detroit? Though both those options would be pricy. A cheaper option would Jets OLB Jordan Jenkins or maybe Rams OLB Samson Ebukam.
Off ball linebackers, we already mentioned Milano. Bucs LB Kendall Beckwith would make some sense, as would Saints LB Alex Anzalone or Chiefs LB Damien Wilson. None of these guys would be stars, but most teams hang onto good LB's who can play off ball and cover backs, so you're probably looking for a veteran stopgap to hold over until you can draft a guy.

2021 NFL Draft

We're getting deep into this. Depending on where Detroit is drafting and who they pulled in with free agency, these would be the guys I'd be most interested in acquiring.
DT Marvin Wilson, Florida State - Like I said, Detroit needs to be a lot better at DT, and Wilson is a monster.
DE Aidan Hutchinson/Kwity Paye, Michigan - If one of these two could slip to you in the second round, that'd be great. Both very good edge rushers. Would love to grab Carlos Basham out of Wake Forest if Detroit is mid first. I also like Quincy Roche as an OLB in a 3-4.
A starting caliber WR. If they miss out on Ja'Marr Chase, then one of the Alabama wide outs (Jaylen Waddle or Devonta Smith) would suffice just fine. I mentioned the other day that Waddle is my current preferred choice for the draft at this point. Gophers WR Rashod Bateman could also be a fun addition. If they need to hunt for a starting wide out in the 3rd or 4th, Michigan's Nico Collins is an excellent deep threat, not too far from the mold of Golladay and Jones. OSU WR Chris Olave would be a clean replacement for Amendola in the slot.
I think Detroit could use a free safety like Trevon Moehrig or Andre Cisco to either immediately start, or develop behind a veteran. Moehrig may end up as a late first round option, but Cisco could be a day 2 pick that pays off immediately.
G Wyatt Davis may not stick out as a clear need, but y'all know I am an OL coach, and I think this kid is the best G prospect since Quentin Nelson, so I wouldn't hesitate to pull the trigger, trade Joe Dahl for a pick, and call it a day. If C/G Josh Myers dropped to the second, I'd also be a very big fan of that move as well. I'm guessing most wouldn't like that, as OL is a relative strength to other spots on the roster, and that's understandable, but if we're truly talking best player available mentality, then Davis has to be considered right after guys like Micah Parsons, Ja'Marr Chase, and Lawrence.
As far as linebackers go, either LSU's Jabrill Cox or LB Chazz Surratt out of North Carolina could be guys who can slide into starting roles quickly. Same goes for Micah Parsons but unless Detroit's drafting top-5, they don't get him.
Few others who have appeal right now as later round prospects...TE Matt Bushman (BYU), WR Dazz Newsome (UNC), LB Dmitri Moore (Vanderbilt), CB Camryn Bynum (Cal), WR Tutu Atwell (Louisville), LB Ventrell Miller (Florida), S Reed Blankenship (MTSU), and LB Rayshard Ashby (VaTech).
​
Overall, a lot of different ways to go, but this would be my proposal at least. Bring in Brian Daboll, get him a veteran defensive coordinator, and then go about building a modern defense. See what you can get out of Matt Stafford, and prepare for a transition down the road if needed at that point.

I'm back again this week with each team's implied point totals for Week 2 based on Vegas oveunder lines. Some changes I've made: per request I have added each team's opponent, and I have added how each team performed in Week 1 compared to their implied point totals. I included this information because I think it is helpful when determining what teams may be over hyped and what teams are being sold short by Vegas lines. It is important to remember that Vegas lines (and therefore implied point totals) are not set based on how some Vegas experts expect teams to perform, but are instead based on what will get the most bets (and therefore the most money for the casinos). I think there is value to be had in remembering this and exploiting it.
When looking at making start-sit decisions, I often play the player whose team has the higher implied point total because more points = more opportunities for fantasy points. It's also smart to play defenses that are going against teams with lower implied point totals.
My Week 1 post can be found here
Anyways, here are this week's numbers:
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Team	Implied Point Total	Opponent	Week 1 Result (OveUnder)
Ravens	29	Texans	OVER
Cowboys	28.5	Falcons	UNDER
Buccaneers	28.25	Panthers	OVER
Chiefs	28.25	Chargers	N/A
Packers	28	Lions	OVER
Saints	27.5	Raiders	OVER
Cardinals	27.25	WFT	OVER
Colts	25.75	Vikings	UNDER
Titans	25.75	Jaguars	UNDER
Browns	24.75	Bengals	UNDER
Steelers	24.5	Broncos	EVEN
49ers	24.5	Jets	UNDER
Seahawks	24.5	Patriots	OVER
Falcons	24	Cowboys	OVER
Bears	23.75	Giants	OVER
Bills	23.5	Dolphins	OVER
Rams	23.25	Eagles	UNDER
Vikings	22.75	Colts	OVER
Eagles	22.25	Rams	UNDER
Texans	22	Ravens	N/A
Raiders	22	Saints	OVER
Lions	21.5	Packers	OVER
Patriots	20.5	Seahawks	UNDER
WFT	20.25	Cardinals	OVER
Panthers	19.25	Buccaneers	OVER
Chargers	19.25	Chiefs	UNDER
Bengals	18.75	Browns	UNDER
Giants	18.25	Bears	UNDER
Dolphins	17.5	Bills	UNDER
Jets	17.5	49ers	OVER
Broncos	17	Steelers	UNDER
Jaguars	16.75	Titans	OVER

​
Things I See
I've decided that this week (and potentially going forward) I will include my own observations and analysis from the numbers and how I plan to use this information for fantasy football. I want to emphasize that this is my own personal thinking, and please feel free to use the numbers to come to your own conclusions.

• The Jacksonville Jaguars offense is being slept on hard. I am a Jaguars fan so this is biased, but the team has been slept on throughout the offseason (by the lowest OveUnder win total set by Vegas at the start of the season) and everyone is assuming they are tanking. This very well may be the case, but the defense is the problem with this team, not the offense. Will they lose a lot of games this year? Yes, but they won't lose them 26-17 - they'll lose them 35-28. Remember that Vegas odds are a reflection of the betting public's perceptions of each game and team - use this to your advantage! Fantasy football players (which I would bet have a decent overlap with the betting public) are likely weary of the Jacksonville offense going forward this year, and I would target Chark in every league (it helps that he is coming off of a lackluster fantasy performance). People think the Jaguar offense is going to be worse than it will actually be, so now is the perfect time to buy Jaguar players for cheap. /rant
• The biggest disappointments last week were the Cowboys, Colts, and 49ers. All three teams were in the top 4 in implied point totals, and they all finished UNDER. The Colts took a hit this week (although not by much - they are tied for the 8th highest implied point total) while the Cowboys remain at the top. The 49ers fell all the way to 12th, which looks even worse when you consider they have a cake walk matchup against the Jets. These teams have good matchups again this week, but another UNDER would be troubling. For the Colts, a disappointing week would likely convince the world that they are, at beast, a mediocre offense, spelling doom for the value of their offensive pieces in fantasy. I am looking for the 49ers to smash the OVER this weekend. The team is depleted of its receiving options (especially with Kittle hurt), but I think the Cardinals will be a better defense than people expect and by the end of the year people won't be surprised that the 49ers hit the UNDER in Week 1. Meanwhile, the 49ers still have plenty of talent in the backfield and should be able to go to work against a bad team. The Cowboys have been Vegas' sweethearts going into this year, and I think they will have a longer leash than the Colts and 49ers. But if they have a disappointing week on the scoreboard again, I would start to panic that Dallas isn't the fantasy goldmine that everyone thought it would be going into the year.
• The Cardinals are my bet to finish the year as the best fantasy offense. In a tough matchup last week, they surpassed their implied point total of 20.5 with a 24 point game. Although this isn't much on paper, the Cardinals looked good doing it. Now, they have what should be an easy matchup against the one and only Football team, and find themselves with the 7th highest implied point total of the week. I expect them to go OVER, and I think we will find them near the top of this list every week for the rest of the season. I'm looking to lock down deeper pieces in the Cardinals offense with hopes that they'll become fantasy relevant - the rising tide lifts all boats, yada yada.

Good luck this week everyone!

Hi, I’m u/CokeZ3ro and welcome to the Falcons’ 2020 Offseason review

Atlanta Falcons

2019 Record 7-9 (4-2 in division); 2nd Place in the NFC South
I’ll be starting off with a quick tl;dr for those who can’t read the whole post
Coaching Changes: Officially promoting the 2 Defensive coaches that saved the season, new TE Coach, and some minor stuff.
Free Agency: Todd Gurley and Dante Fowler were the biggest splashes. Otherwise we filled depth.
Draft: Filled a CB need with A.J. Terrell, supplied the DT pass rush with Marlon Davidson, filled depth.
Quick Roster Evaluation:

• QB: We got Matty Ice and Matty Schaub, we good
  
• RB: Gurley and his friends run a committee. Likely nobody will stick out as great, but let’s just hope it gets the job done.
  
• WR: Julio Jones, Calvin Ridley, and a boat load of depth. It’s great here.
  
• TE: We’re betting on Hayden Hurst being better than the Ravens showed.
  
• OL: Last year’s rookies fill their roles. Let’s hope for no injuries and pray that they don’t try to kill Matt Ryan again.
  
• DE: Please get sacks Dante Fowler, and hopefully Takk McKinely will play for money. Big question mark here.
  
• DT: Grady Jarret and friends Tyeler Davison (good against run) and Marlon Davidson (good at pass rush)
  
• LB: Deion Jones continues to play well, and he has good company, it’s a strong unit.
  
• S: Ricardo Allen, Keanu Neal, and Damontae Kazee are back together. If Neal’s ACL doesn’t explode again, they should be really good.
  
• CB: A bunch of hopeful younglings (two 2nd years and a rookie). This is the team’s greatest question mark.
  
• Specialists: Younghoe Koo is back and we have a punter fight.
  

Now for the in-depth breakdown

Coaching Changes:

Defensive Coordinator: Raheem Morris
Would you believe it, Morris started the season coaching offense? The once Head Coach of the Buccaneers served as an assistant coach & wide receivers’ coach for the first half of the 2019 season. After the disastrous start to the season, one of the changes made was to move Morris over to Secondary Coach, where he shared defensive calling responsibility with Ben Ulrich. The benefits of that change (and others) were immediate. Over the final eight games, the team went 6-2 and the defense went from having the lowest amount of takeaways in the first half of the season (4) to finishing with the second-most in the NFL (16) after Week 9. The defense also vaulted from the bottom of the league rankings to the top 10 in sacks (32nd to 10th), scoring efficiency (32nd to 9th), and red zone efficiency (31st to 6th) over the final eight weeks of the season. As such, Quinn is keeping the coaching changes he made in place, with the hope we’ll see similar results for the whole season this year. Why Morris instead of Ulbrich? Morris was in charge of the potentially more difficult 3rd downplay calls this past season, and he has a long resume of defensive coaching that will enable him to naturally fill the role.
Assistant Head Coach/Linebackers: Jeff Ulbrich
While Ulbrich didn’t get DC, his efforts during the 2019 season were not unrewarded. Taking play calling responsibilities for a majority of defensive plays after the bye week, Ulbrich showed he was more than capable as a coach and strategist. The accolades that I gave to Morris earlier can just as well go to Ulbrich as well. This will be Ulbrich’s 6th year as Linebackers Coach, a stint that has provided the Falcons’ most consistent defensive unit in recent years.
Tight Ends Coach: Ben Steele After the retirement of Mike Mularkey in January, Steele was promoted up from Offensive Assistant. Steele is a veteran of Dirk Koetter’s offense, having worked under him as the Buccaneers’ Tight End Coach during the 2017 season. Credited as a contributing factor in Austin Hooper’s great season, Steele will now have the important responsibility of coaching a vastly different tight end group.
Defensive Line (Des)/Run Game Coordinator: Tosh Lupoi Last season Lupoi served as the Browns’ Defensive Line Coach. On the falcons he will specifically focus on defensive ends (Jess Simpson will coach Defensive Tackles more specifically this year).
Secondary/Defensive Pass Game Coordinator: Joe Whitt Jr. Another Cleveland coach, Whitt served in the same role last season at Cleveland.
Minor Changes: Aden Durde to Outside Linebacker Coach ; Chad Walker to Safeties Coach ; Danny Beyer as offensive assistant.
Overall Thoughts: The two biggest coaching “moves” basically happened during the season, the titles are just official now. The hope is that Quinn, Morris, and Ulbrich can once again find whatever defensive magic came to them in the 2nd half of the season. It was this change in the defense that “saved” the season, and prevented the whole structure from being torn down, so the pressure is certainly there. If the defense carries any similarity to last year’s finish, it will be one of the better defenses in the NFL. But if I’ve learned anything over the past couple of seasons, it’s that nobody can predict how the Falcons’ defense will play. Beyond defense, tight end is the most important coaching to watch. With Hooper’s departure, the position is an unknown, with the hope that Hayden Hurst will live up to his draft potential. Steele will hopefully play an important role in improving and integrating the group into the offense. Overall, it’s a much calmer coaching offseason than last year, with the hope that the energy from the end of last year will continue.

Re-signed Players

Player	Position	Contract
Younghoe Koo	K	1-yr / $750,000
Keith Smith	FB	3 yr / $4,300,000 / $1,950,000 Gtd
Tyeler Davison	DT	3 yr / $12,000,000 / $4,550,00 Gtd
Brian Hill	RB	5th Round Tender / $2,133,000
Sharrod Neasman	S	1 yr / $950,000
Blindi Wreh-Wilson	CB	1 yr. / $1,187,500 / $137,500 Gtd
Allen Bailey	Defensive End	1 yr Extension / $4,500,000 / $3,250,000 Gtd

Re-sign Thoughts: Nothing too major or risky here. If Koo can keep up the highs of what he did last year, we should be in good shape (more onsides would be cool too). The others serve helpful depth roles that we’ll need this year. My one issue is with the size of Keith Smith’s contract, it feels pretty large for how much he contributed last season. But fullbacks are a dying commodity, so maybe there’s bigger plans for him.

Player Trades

Player	Position	Previous Team	Trade Deal
Hayden Hurst	TE	Baltimore Ravens	Hurst + 2020 4th for 2020 2nd + 2020 5th
Charles Harris	DE	Miami Dolphins	Harris for 2021 7th

Trade Thoughts: With Austin Hooper’s departure, the Falcons were left with a greatly depleted group, and a huge question mark at the position. Hurst’s trade hoped to solve that question and profit off of the 1st round pick. Hurst is still an unknown however, since he did not see ample playing time in Baltimore thanks to the likes of Mark Andrews. If Hurst lives up to the potential that Baltimore drafted him for, the cost will have been well worth it, but the jury is still out. Harris is a low-cost attempt to put some depth into one of the teams most worrying positions. Nice if it pans out well, not too painful if it doesn’t.
Free Agent Signings

Player	Position	Previous Team	Contract
LaRoy Reynolds	ILB	San Francisco 49ers	1 yr / $1,050,000
Laquon Treadwell	WR	Minnesota Vikings	1 yr / $910,000
Dante Fowler Jr.	DE	Los Angeles Rams	3 yr / $45,000,000 / $23,000,000 Gtd
Khari Lee	TE	Buffalo Bills (2018)	1 yr / $910,000
Edmond Robinson	OLD	New York Jets (2018)	1 yr / $750,000
Todd Gurley	RB	Los Angeles Rams	1 yr / $5,500,000 / $5,500,000 Gtd
Josh Hawkins	CB	Philadelphia Eagles	1 yr / $860,000
Deone Buccannon	ILB	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	1yr / $910,000

Free Agency Addition Thoughts: I would like to thank the Los Angeles Rams for our two splashiest signings. Both Gurley and Fowler will likely be the best players at their positions, and the team desperately needs them to at least perform averagely. If Fowler is able to put up the same numbers he did last season it would be a godsend to a struggling Falcons’ D-Line. While it’s likely that the Falcons will employ an RB Committee this year, Gurley’s skills will be vital in tough situations. Even a shadow of his former self would be the best RB on the team. If you hadn’t heard, Gurley and Treadwell’s signing complete an offense ^potentially composed entirely of 1st Round draft picks. I don’t expect the other signees to see the field much, but any depth is always appreciated.

Departures

Player	Position	Reason	New Team
Alex Gray	TE	Waived	Free Agent
ReShede Hageman	DT	Waived	Free Agent
Vic Beasley	DE	Free Agency	Tennessee Titans
Devonta Freeman	RB	Released	Free Agent
Desmond Trufant	CB	Released	Detroit Lions
Ty Sambrailo	OT	Released	Tennessee Titans
Luke Stocker	TE	Released	Free Agent
Austin Hooper	TE	Free Agency	Cleveland
De’Vondre Campbell	LB	Free Agency	Cardinals
Kenjon Barner	RB	Free Agency	Free Agent

Departures Thoughts: Per usual this list features a mix of blown expectations, too expensive, and free agent losses. Hooper is probably the most painful loss, but he was going to be too expensive to re sign after his explosive season. Trufant’s release was inevitable sadly, he hasn’t played up to his 2015 level and the contract he earned. Unfortunately it leaves the cornerbacks without a veteran presence. Freeman was way too expensive for the pitiful numbers he’s put up recently. He has an intense injury bug, and hasn’t been that great when he was able to play. Campbell also sucks some since he was pretty decent at LB, he played a big role when Deion Jones was injured. The terror of Vic Beasley is finally over, but our DE position is still desperately weak.

2020 Draft

Round/Pick	Player	Position	College
1.16	A.J. Terrell	Cornerback	Clemson
2.47	Marlon Davidson	Defensive Tackle	Auburn
3.78	Matt Hennessey	Center	Temple
4.119	Mykal Walker	Linebacker	Fresno State
4.134	Jaylinn Hawkins	Safety	California
7.228	Sterling Hofrichter	Punter	Syracuse

A.J. Terrell: While many fans were pining for a Defensive Tackle, Cornerback was a huge need after the release of Desmond Trufant. In typical Falcon’s fashion they drafted someone nobody had mocked them to. In Terrell Atlanta will gain a large, physical outside corner, capable of playing both man and zone. Terrell is great at both reading the quarterback, and being physically present over the receivers he covers. While he only faced 30 targets before the playoffs last year, he still earned First Team All-ACC. I’ll acknowledge his LSU game before someone else does. It wasn’t great, but nobody played well against Jamar Chase last season, and it was ultimately one day. If there are doubts on how he’ll play against good competition on the big stage, look no further than the previous national championship where he scored a Pick-6 against Tua. Somethings Terrell can improve on include improvements at the catch, and more physicality for NFL level play. Ultimately, while picking Terrell left questions on the D-Line, it filled a depleted cornerback group with a starting presence, and was debatably the best option available for them without a trade up. B
Marlon Davidson: While Derrick Brown attracted all the hype coming into the draft, it was actually Davidson who led the team in sacks (6.5-7.5 source dependent). Roughly a fourth of his tackles were for loss, as he and Brown dominated opposing lines. Ideally, Davidson will form a similar DT partnership with stalwart Grady Jarrett and give some bite to a lacking Falcons D-line. Davidson posses a great ability to penetrate opposing lines to disrupt the play, with tackles and sacks to boot. Furthermore, he also serves well to stand tall to halt runningbacks in their tracks. One worry of note is that Davidson played a decent amount of snaps as an edge player at Auburn. With Atlanta he’ll predominantly be lined up at tackle, especially given the defenses leaning towards 4-3, so he’ll need to adjust to that. This past draft was one deep at Defensive Tackle, and the Falcons have found a great partner for Jarrett. A
Matt Hennessey: Finally I can expand my gameday drinking options. But in all seriousness Hennessy serves to fill a need that doesn’t exist quite yet. This year is Alex Mack’s last season on contract with the Falcons, so the position is an unknown next year. Hennessey will train to potentially fill his role come next year and will compete for and play at Left Guard in the meantime (he played guard some in college). It may seem dubious with our commitment to the O-line through FA and the Draft last season, but Matt Ryan was sacked for a career high 48 times last season. More help is needed. Hennessey excels at moving quickly to his one or two assignments and will commit to extending the play beyond that point. He needs to work on his strength and size if he is to maintain a spot on the starting lineup. Ultimately, he’s a solid investment for the future, with benefits this season. And I really hope he pans out because his name is great. A-
Mykal Walker: After departures in the past season, Linebacker has become a thin position behind Deion Jones and Foye Oluokun. Walker has the size and strength to be good at the position. He displays position flexibility, playing both edge and inside linebacker in college. His movements remain somewhat stiff in comparison to what is needed, but there’s time to work on that. Walker will likely see both rotation at LB and special teams play. B
Jaylinn Hawkins: Speaking of position flexibility, Hawkins started at wide receiver, moved to cornerback, before finishing college at safety. Hawkins as good speed and does well to create turnovers, something the Falcons have been lacking. While he’s considered a reach in the 4th, he’ll fill in some much-needed safety depth, considering the injury history of Allen and Neal. Otherwise he’ll serve well on special teams. C+
Sterling Hofrichter: Hofrichter was brought in to give punter Ryan Allen some competition going into the season. Hofrichter was a 4-time Ray Guy award nominee, so he’s no schmuck himself, and was great at giving airtime. It’s low risk but begs the question why it couldn’t have been an UFDA signing. Oh well. C

Undrafted Free Agent Signings

CB Tyler Hall, DE Austin Edwards, DT Hinwa Allieu, FB Mikey Daniel, LB Jordan Williams, LB Ray Wilborn, DE Bryson Young, DT Sailosi Latu, C Austin Capps, CB Delrick Abrams, LT Hunter Atkinson, TE Caleb Repp, WR Jalen McCleskey, RT Scottie Dill, WR Chris Rowland, TE Jared Pinkney, CB Rojesterman Farris, OT Evin Ksiezarczyk, WR Juwan Green and OG Justin Gooseberry.

Training Camp Battles

RB2*: I put an apostrophe here because a lot will depend on who Gurley shapes up. While Gurley is presumed to be the important situation and 3rd down back, it’s less clear who will be the primary back to relieve him. And that of course is assuming there will be someone who stands out. The two primary candidates are Ito Smith and Brian Hill, who both performed serviceably last season behind Freeman. Quadree Ollison and UDFA Mikey Daniel serve as candidates for short yardage situations.
WR3&4: We have a lot of receivers. Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley are the obvious 1&2, but there’s less certainty after that. Russell Gage will most likely play as WR3, he was the best of the group last season. Behind him is an extensive list including: Laquon Treadwell, Olamide Zacchaeus, Christian Blake, Brandon Powell, Devin Gray, and Chris Roland; to name a few. It’s easily the deepest group on the team.
TE2: Unless things go terribly; Hayden Hurst will be the starting tight end. Jaeden Graham leads the charge of potential candidates for the backup spot. Graham was a UDFA who made the 53-man roster last season, so he has the most experience of any of the candidate. Graham’s competition includes Carson Meier, Jared Pinkey, and Caleb Repp.
LG: James Carpenter started 11 games at guard last year, which he played serviceably, but Quinn has indicated that there will be competition for the position. Hennessey is the main competition for the spot, even though center will be his long-term position. I would imagine they
DT2: This competition will be to determine the how often and the roles in which either Tyeler Davison or Marlon Davidson will play. Wow those last names will be confusing to hear. Davison has proven himself to be an asset to halting the run game, while Davidson provides a more potent pass rush. If Davidson is able to adapt to increased play as a run blocking DT, I could see him taking the starting spot later on in the season, but it’ll take some time.
LB Depth: Behind Deion Jones and Foye Oluokun the position is very untested. It’s likely rookie Mykal Walker will see playing time, but the 4th spot will be contentious. Contenders include LaRoy Reynolds, Ahmad Thomas, Edmond Robinson, and Jordan Williams.
Punter: Hell yeah, we have a punter fight. Ryan Allen started 8 games last year after Matt Bosher bit the bullet, but we’ve spent a draft pick on Sterling Hofrichter to challenge him. Supposedly, the ability to pin punts within the red zone will be a key factor in determining the starter. May the better punter win and do it for the culture.

Likely Starting Lineup

QB: Matt Ryan Even coming off a lesser season, Ryan remains one of the better Quarterbacks in the league. No issue here as long as the O-line doesn’t conspire to kill him again.
RB: Todd Gurley, kind of . Given the uncertainty around Gurley’s knee, he will be receiving a limited workload this season. So, while he may be the RB1 by all indications, he’s unlikely to put up any RB1 numbers, and the RB position will be committee based on most downs. Now if he found some of Russell Wilson’s magic water and is suddenly fine, then you could easily count him as RB1.
FB: Keith Smith I’ll say the same thing I said for Ricky Ortiz last year. It’s a hard life for Fullbacks in today’s NFL, and Smith is no Patrick DiMarco, he’s going to have to prove his worth.
TE: Hayden Hurst, Jaeden Smith You don’t spend the draft capital we did on Hurst and not start him, and he’s likely the best TE regardless. My bet is on Smith to earn the TE position, but his use will be limited.
WR: Julio Jones, Calvin Ridley, Russell Gage Above the smorgasbord that is our WR depth, these three are set nicely within their roles. While Sanu is missed personally, his role is well filled by Gage, and Ridley continues to improve.
LT: Jake Matthews Last year Matthews was one of the best players on the line last year. He will continue to hold up the vital position.
LG: James Carpenter Carpenter has done decent in the past but he’s definitely facing pressure for his spot this year. Matt Hennessey may take the start later on, but I would bet on Carpenter starting with it, due to experience if anything.
C: Alex Mack Even after a down season last year, Mack is one of the most important players on the offense. Hopefully, his intelligent play will bring the offense back to glory.
RG: Chris Lindstrom When he was healthy Lindstrom proved he was more than capable of playing the position well. Now we can only hope he stays healthy this season.
RT: Kaleb McGary Last season McGary proved himself capable as an NFL tackle, winning the spot and performing decently enough with it, for the most part. However, McGary had an issue with giving up sacks (13, 1st according to PFF), a trend which must be nipped quickly.
DE: Dante Fowler, Takk McKinley This group will have to step up this year as the team has had poor sack numbers in recent years. This year is a contract year for McKinley, so hopefully that will drive some results. Fowler’s performance last year gives some hope, but ultimately, it’s unknown if he can sustain those numbers.
DT: Grady Jarret, Tyeler Davison I have no doubt in both Grady’s run stopping ability and his pass rush. I think at the start of the season Tyeler Davison will see play more often as Davidson works to improve. Especially with how unsure practice will be this season, Davison is the safer pick.
LB: Deion Jones, Foye Oluokun 2 great recent draft successes, Oluokun especially has risen and proven his worth in recent seasons. This should be a pretty good group if the injury bug leaves Deion alone.
CB: Kendall Sheffield, A.J. Terrell, Isiah Oliver Christ this is a young group. Sheffield and Oliver are both on their sophomore year, and Terrell is the shiny 1st round pick. As such, this is probably the greatest unknown on the entire team. Sheffield was surprisingly good last year (Those OSU corners are something else), Oliver had good flashes, and Terrell offer hopeful potential. Alternatively, they may all crumble to the harsh challenges of being a CB in the LOADED NFC South. Who knows?
S: Ricardo Allen, Keanu Neal, Demontae Kazee Allen is the brain of the defense and was vital to saving our secondary last season. Keanu would be great as a Strong Safety if his ACL didn’t fucking hate him. Furthermore, this is a contract year for him, so one would hope that he’ll try his ass off to make up for 2 lost seasons. Last time Kazee was at Safety he led the NFL in interceptions, which was pretty cool. I expect that Kazee will play corner roles (he played corner last year) occasionally in order to help out the younglings at CB.
P: Ryan Allen I expect Allen’s experience to help him win out the job, but it could easily go the other way.
K: Younghoe Koo Koo was pretty good as a place kicker when he came in last season, and his onside kicks are the stuff of legend . Unrelated, but at 2:37 in that video look at the top right of the screen and you’ll see my favorite thing from last season.
KR: Brandon Powell He returned kicks a few times for the lions.
Long Snapper: Josh HarrisHe’ll steal your girl if you aren’t careful.

Season Prediction in the comments

Special Thanks to u/PlatypusOfDeath for organizing this

Rise UP

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Now that we have passed the opt-out deadline and are only about three weeks away from the Chiefs and Texans kicking off the 2020 NFL season, I wanted to put together my pre-season power rankings and put all 32 teams in separate tiers, to give you an idea of where I see them at this point.
When putting together this list, I considered the talent on the roster, coaching staff and what will be a more important factor coming into this season than it has been in previous – the continuity as a franchise, since the COVID situation has limited the amount of preparation and ability to build chemistry as a team. That will be especially tough for new head coaches and inexperienced teams.
With that being said, this is how I would group them:
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Super Bowl contenders:

This group of four represents what I think are the four elite teams in the NFL. They all feature complete rosters, excellent coaching and continuity as a franchise. I think these are the franchises that will most likely square up against each other in the conference championship games on either side of the bracket.
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1. Kansas City Chiefs
We have heard this many times over the course of the offseason – the reigning Super Bowl champs bring back 20 of 22 starters (actually 19 now) on offense and defense combined. They have the best player in the league, the most dangerous receiving corp, above-average O-line play and a still improving defense, that just added some much-needed speed at the second level, which will allow DC Steve Spagnuolo to even more versatile. So at this point I can not have anybody unseat them. I think Clyde Edwards-Helaire (LSU) will be a star in that offense, they get a couple of guys back that missed their playoff run and there are plenty of young, developing players on that roster. What general manager Brett Veach has done this offseason in terms of securing Patrick Mahomes for the next decade and still opening up cap room to also sign their best defensive player in Chris Jones is amazing to me. My only two concerns for Kansas City at this point are a lack of depth in the secondary and the fact they will have to go on the road when they face the four best teams on their schedule – Baltimore, Buffalo, Tampa Bay and New Orleans, which has me favoring the second team on my list for the number one seed in the AFC and which this year means having one more game in the playoffs on their road to another Super Bowl for Andy Reid’s troops.
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2. Baltimore Ravens
Right behind the Chiefs, as the biggest competitor for the AFC is Baltimore. They were the best team in the regular season from this past year, but the Titans handed them only their third loss of the season in the Divisional Round at home. While they did lose what to me is a first-ballot Hall of Fame guard in Marshal Yanda, outside of that the Ravens to me have an even better roster. The reigning MVP Lamar Jackson is only entering his third season in the league, the Ravens just added a top prospect in J.K. Dobbins (Ohio State) to a backfield that set a league-record in rushing yards and some of these young receivers will continue to develop. On defense, they addressed the two areas that needed some help, when they brought in Calais Campbell to boost their pass-rush and two top-six linebackers on my board in the draft (Patrick Queen & Malik Harrison). They may not have as many superstar names as some other teams, but without a full offseason to prepare for it, that Greg Roman offense could be even tougher to stop if Marquise Brown becomes a more dependable deep threat (now fully healthy) and I love how multiple Wink Martindale is with his defense, combining the different pressure looks to go along with more versatile pieces up front and one of the elite secondaries in the game. You combine that with a rising young special teams coordinator in Chris Horton and a great motivator and in-game decision-maker in John Harbaugh – I just can’t find a lot of L’s on their schedule.
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3. San Francisco 49ers
Obviously the Super Bowl hangover will be brought up a lot of times with the loser of that contest, but unlike a lot of these teams coming off the big game – yet similar to the actual winners in the Chiefs – John Lynch did a great job re-tooling for the few losses they did have and didn’t overspend on some of their talented guys. Kyle Shanahan to me is the best offensive play-caller and game-designer in football, with a diverse rushing attack and the type of personnel to match it, while Jimmy G, despite some issues, is coming off his first 16-game season in his career. Defensively, they are losing what I thought was their best player in DeForest Buckner, but they did replace him with a top ten prospect in Javon Kinlaw (South Carolina) and Fred Warner is an emerging superstar. Their Seattle-based scheme under Robert Salah may not be very complex, but the Niners have a ferocious pass-rush, fast-flowing linebackers and a great safety tandem to be very sound in their execution. The Deebo Samuel injury is definitely a concern for me and if he doesn’t get back a few weeks into the season, I might drop San Fran a spot or two, plus I don’t love what they have at that second cornerback spot, but as for now I see the recipe that made me predict them winning the NFC West ahead of 2019 and what allowed them to be up double-digits in the fourth quarter of the Super Bowl.
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4. New Orleans Saints
One of the themes this offseason for me has been how loaded this Saints roster is and that they just need to win this year. This is the final season with Drew Brees at the helm, they are already in a horrible place with the cap – before that even goes down in 2021 – and to be honest, a lot of their key contributors are getting pretty old now. While I have seen a significant drop-off in the arm-strength of Brees, other than that I don’t see any offense with this Sean Payton-led offense – the front-five is elite, Alvin Kamara should be back to 100 percent as a dynamic dual-threat back and they finally found a number two receiver in Emmanuel Sanders. When healthy, that defensive line is a dominant unit, I think third-round pick Zack Baun (Wisconsin) gives that linebacker group some versatility and they have a lot of experience in the secondary, including a guy I thought would be a future star on the outside in Marshon Lattimore. Before anything else, they need to take care of divisional-rival Tampa Bay – which is a very tough challenge already – but if they can do that, they are fairly in the hunt for the NFC’s top seed. There’s a lot of pressure on this group because of the cap situation, their all-time great QB having his “Last Dance” and brutal playoff losses in recent years, but they have all it takes to finally break through all the way.
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Playoff contenders:

This second tier consists of eight teams that to me have only or two holes on their roster, while their coaching gives them an advantage over the majority of teams in the league and they bring back most of their pieces from a year or at least improved in those areas. I expect all but one of these squads to make the playoffs in 2020, as long as they don’t suffer significant injuries along the way.
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5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Number five in the entire league seems pretty high for a team that finished below .500 last season, but this is not just about Tom Brady coming in, but rather the roster Tampa Bay has built around him. To me Mike Evans and Chris Godwin are the top receiver duo in the league, the Bucs arguably have the best tight-end room in the league and the offensive line only got better with superhuman Tristan Wirfs (Iowa) playing one of those spots on the right side. I have talked about this a lot over the offseason, looking at the match between Bruce Arians’ vertical-based passing attack and what Brady is used to, in terms of spreading the field and getting the ball out of his hands quickly. My bet is they go to a bit of hybrid and figure things out. Maybe more importantly, I don’t think people realize what they have put together on defense. Last season the Bucs finished number one against the run, they forced the fifth-most turnovers (28) and tied for sixth with yards per play (5.1) in the league. Todd Bowles is excellent defensive mind, who now enters his second season with as much talent as he has had since his Arizona days. Jameis turned it over 35 times last year (12 more than any other player in the league), while Tom didn’t even crack double-digits once again, and he immediately improves their situational football awareness and overall execution. This is a very dangerous squad.
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6. Dallas Cowboys
When you talk about some of the most talented rosters in the league, the Dallas Cowboys come to mind right away – especially on the offensive side of the ball. Dak Prescott now has one of the premiere receiver trios with the selection of Ceedee Lamb (Oklahoma) in the draft, still probably a top-five offensive line and Zeke looking to re-establish himself as a top-tier back, after looking a step slow for most of last season. Defensively they are getting back Leighton Vander Esch, whose energy they desperately missed for stretches last season, and they have a very deep rotation at the defensive line (even though nobody knows what we’ll get from a couple of guys that were out of the league), while Mike Nolan will change things up a little more and get his guys into the face of opposing receivers. We have yet to see how much Mike McCarthy will want to have say in the offensive play-calling, but I like that they retained a young and creative OC in Kellen Moore, and as far as in-game control and CEO duties go, I certainly believe McCarthy is an upgrade. There are some questions with the secondary after the loss of Byron Jones and losing Travis Frederick to retirement hurts, but I think those are things that can be overcome. Something that I think should not be overlooked is the signing of former Rams kicker Greg Zuerlein and his special teams coordinator John Fassel, after converting only 75 percent of their field goal attempts last season (6th-lowest in the league) and missing a couple of crucial kicks.
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7. Philadelphia Eagles
Right behind the Cowboys, I have their division rivals from Philadelphia. I think the Eagles actually have a better quarterback, the best defensive player among the two teams in Fletcher Cox and a more experienced secondary. However, with Brandon Brooks out for the season and maybe the worst group of linebackers in the NFL, I could not put this group ahead of Dallas, even though they have come up victorious against them in the big games recently. Last year Carson Wentz carried a group of skill-position players from the practice squad and a banged-up O-line to a division title. This upcoming season he will go from already wasn’t an overly dynamic receiving crew to a group of track stars, most notably with first-round pick Jalen Reagor (TCU) and a hopefully healthy DeSean Jackson, plus Miles Sanders I think is ready to emerge as a star back for Philly. The defense did lose some long-time stalwarts like Malcolm Jenkins and Nigel Bradham, but I loved the addition of Javon Hargreave in the middle to free up the other guys to attack upfield and with Darius Slay as their new CB1, not only does that move everybody one spot lower on the depth chart, but it also finally makes more sense for Jim Schwartz to be as aggressive with those zero-blitzes, since he has the guys to cover. Those two newcomers also fit perfectly when matching up against Dallas, because of an improvement interior run defense and having a guy who can match up with Amari Cooper, after the other guys got toasted for the most part.
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8. Buffalo Bills
For the first time in about twenty years, a team not named the Patriots will enter a season as favorites in the AFC East – and it’s actually not that close for me. Buffalo made a switch last season offensively to more 11 personnel and quick-tempo with Brian Daboll moving to the booth. This offseason they finally got the big-armed Josh Allen a dependable deep threat in Stefon Diggs, who averaged 12.0 yards per target last season (second-highest in the league), which – similar to what I just talked about with the corners in Philadelphia – moves everybody else down one spot in the food chain. And I love what they do defensively, with Sean McDermott and Leslie Frazier’s game-plan specific zone pattern coverages, with a versatile secondary to execute those, to go with a deep D-line and two super-rangy linebackers. Even outside the Diggs trade, Buffalo has made some sneaky-good deals since losing that Wildcard game at Houston in such heart-breaking fashion. Whether that is Mario Addison as double-digit sack guy in four straight years, added depth on the O-line or a really solid draft class to complement what they already had. I don’t want to crown them at this point, but to me they are the favorites for the AFC’s number three seed as for right now, since I think the South doesn’t have that clear front-runner to win the majority of their divisional games.
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9. Seattle Seahawks
I would have probably had the Hawks as the final team of this group or right at the top of the next one a couple of weeks ago, but after acquiring Jamal Adams, I think they have re-established themselves as that second team in the NFC West, since I had them very close with Arizona originally, I did not love what they did in the first two days of the draft (somewhat of a trend with them), they lost their second-best defensive player at that point in Jadeveon Clowney, I’m not sure if they upgraded on the offensive line and we don’t even if know if Quinton Dunbar will be suspended at this point. With that being said, Seattle has finished above .500 every single year with Russell Wilson under center and while I’m not a fan of their conservative approach offensively, where they don’t allow Russ to throw the ball on first downs and push the tempo a little at times, they are one of the most effective rushing teams and they have two lethal weapons to catch those trademark rainbow balls from the Seahawks QB. Defensively there are still some questions about the edge rush and at second corner spot, but Pete Carroll at least has what he wants most in a team at those positions – competition – and you already saw them go to more two-high looks in coverage than we are used to, telling me they utilize Jamal’s versatile skill-set more than what that strong safety mostly does in that system.
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10. Green Bay Packers
The whole Aaron Rodgers-Jordan Love drama has been looming large over the offseason and that has brought us some interesting discussions, but let’s not allow this to take away from the fact Green Bay just had a first-round bye in the playoffs and made it to the NFC title game. While they were 8-1 in one-score games and should regress more towards the mean in terms of the success rate in those close games, the North is still wide open and they have a few things going for themselves – they have the best quarterback in the division, the best offensive line, the most versatile and effective pass rush and a lot of young talent in the secondary. The first-round selection of a future signal-caller aside, I wasn’t too fond of what they did in the draft. Even though I liked Cincinnati’s Josiah Deguara and can see what they want to do with him as H-back/move guy in this offense, I thought they did not get Aaron Rodgers help in the receiving corp, which has no proven commodity outside of Davante Adams. Their defense got absolutely steamrolled in two games against the eventual conference champion 49ers, but I hope to see Rashan Gary develop in his second season and I think Christian Kirksey was a very under-the-radar signing as a run-stopping linebacker. I think schematically with Matt LaFleur’s offense based on what they did under Sean McVay and Mike Pettine being very creative himself they are one of the better coaching staffs in the NFC, but I would like to see them open up the offense more for Rodgers and break tendencies more often with their coverage calls.
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11. Pittsburgh Steelers
Another very dangerous squad for me is the Steelers. I have talked many times about how bad the Steelers quarterback situations was last season, as both Mason Rudolph and Devlin Hodges finished near the bottom in air yards per attempt, percentage of throws beyond the marker and many others. We have only seen Big Ben throw in some short clips on the internet, but if he is just 70-80 percent of what he was in 2018, this team is bound for a playoff berth. There are some question marks with this group of skill-position players, but I expect Juju to bounce back in a major way with a capable QB and being healthy himself, I have already picked Diontae Johnson as a breakout candidate for this season and I like the diversity of this group of backs. Pittsburgh’s defense was already elite last year, finishing top five in both yards and points allowed, tied for first in yards per play (4.7), the most takeaways (38) and sacks (54). If former Raven Chris Wormley can replace Javon Hargreave as a two-down run-stopper at least and rookie Antoine Brooks Jr. (Maryland) can fill a very specific role as their second sub-package linebacker in place of Mark Barron, I think they will one of the scariest units in the NFL once again. So the best all-around defense for my money and an offense who I would say has top ten potential at the very least is a tough match-up. Maybe not quite battling with the Ravens for the North, but the top Wildcard spot for sure.
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12. Indianapolis Colts
If there is one team in the AFC that could go from finishing sub-.500 to making it all the way to the conference championship game, the Colts would be my pick. I thought Philip Rivers had a really rough 2019 campaign, in which his arm looked rather weak and his decision-making hurt the Chargers on multiple occasions, but he will play behind by far the best offensive line he has ever had and they will run the heck out of the ball. Indy already had a pretty good back in Marlon Mack, but Wisconsin superstar Jonathan Taylor, who they selected in the second round, will be one of the front-runners for Offensive Rookie of the Year if given the chances in combination with what I believe is the best front-five in the entire league, plus their other second-rounder Michael Pittman Jr. (USC) will be that Vincent Jackson/Mike Williams type target for Rivers. More importantly, with the trade for a top 50 player in the league in DeForest Buckner, this entire Colts D immediately takes a step forward, since he is a perfect fit as that 3-technique in their front and help them disrupt plays at a much higher rate, to go with range in zone coverage behind that, including the “Maniac” Darius Leonard chasing people down. I’m a big fan of Frank Reich and the coaching staff he is has put together, in terms of in-game decision-making, offensive gameplans and just the intensity his team plays him.
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Fringe playoff teams:

This middle tier is made up from all those teams who I expect to be at .500 or above, firmly in contention for a Wildcard spot at least. They can be some areas of concern, but overall they have the roster ready to compete with the big dogs and/or feature above-average coaching. With a couple of these there is a change at quarterback and head coach respectively, but they have enough around those to overcome that.
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13. Tennessee Titans
This definitely seems a little low for a team that is coming off an AFC Championship game appearance, but people seem to forget the Titans were 8-7 ahead of week 17 and if it wasn’t for the Steelers losing their final three games, this group wouldn’t have even been in position to lock down the six seed. Things were also made a lot easier by their division rival Texans, who sat most of their starters after beating Tennessee two weeks prior. So as impressive as their playoff run was, you have to think of what happened before that and put it into perspective a little. With one more playoff spot in each conference, their chances of making it to the tournament should be at least equally as good, but I believe the Colts are the favorites to win the South and for me the Steelers are the favorites for the fifth seed. With all that being said, there is plenty to like about this team still – they can pound you with the Derrick Henry and the run game, Ryan Tannehill at least gives them the threat of pulling the ball and going deep off play-action, they have some young weapons catching the ball and defensively they are very versatile in how they set up gameplans. I also like the mind-set Mike Vrabel installs in these guys and I was impressed with what OC Arthur Smith did in 2019. If there are two spots that could decide if this group is fighting for a division title or that final playoff berth, it will be their rookie right tackle Isaiah Wilson (Georgia) and recently signed edge rusher Vic Beasley.
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14. Cleveland Browns
While I don’t see them competing for the AFC North – just because of how loaded the Ravens are – the Browns are pretty clearly the most talented team that is considered to be third in their division. In terms of their group of starting skill-position players at least, they are near the top of the NFL, the O-line to me already just made my top ten ranking with room to move up, if healthy they are at least in the conversation for that with the D-line as well, with a Defensive Player of the Year candidate in Myles Garrett, and I like how they have assembled their secondary. Now, they have some unproven guys at the linebacker level and Cleveland’s potential is largely dependent on which Baker Mayfield we will get. With Kevin Stefanski coming and installing an offense that will be built on the zone run game and bootlegs off that, where his quarterback is put on the move, I could see much more efficient play and more comfort in that system. Something that really jumped out to me on tape was how many times Baker seemed to not be “on the same page” with his receivers, expecting routes to break off differently and unfortunate drops in certain situations. Even though the preparation for the season does look a lot different and QB & WRs haven’t been able to spend too much time together, I expect this to improve and more suitable roles for those pass-catchers overall. And if they are ahead in more games, that pass rush will be a problem.
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15. Arizona Cardinals
There are certainly still some issues here, but the Cardinals are probably the most exciting young team in all of the NFL. Kyler Murray was a one-man show last season and is due for a big jump, with DeAndre Hopkins being added to a receiving corp that severely lacked dependable weapons, to go with some other youngsters fully healthy, Kenyan Drake looked like a different player once he came over from Miami and the O-line should at least be marginally better. Defensively they transitioned a little up front, with big gap-pluggers on the line and Isaiah Simmons being that ultra-rangy player on the second level, who can run guys down on the edges, if those ball-carriers forced to bounce outside, plus they have maybe the most underappreciated edge rusher over the last four years in Chandler Jones. I don’t think they are very deep in the secondary, but Budda Baker is an absolute baller, Jalen Thompson emerged late last season and I already predicted Byron Murphy would have a breakout second season. With Kliff Kingsbury and Vance Joseph, Arizona has creative play-calling on both sides of the ball and they now have the personnel to execute at the needed level as well. Like I mentioned, I was ready to have the Cardinals at least go toe-to-toe with Seattle for a playoff spot, but the addition of Jamal Adams has shifted the balance again to some degree. And if you just go based off my rankings, two NFC Wildcard spots already go to teams from five to seven.
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16. Denver Broncos
A team that has been getting a lot of love this offseason is the Broncos. They have pretty much all the pieces that you usually see with those rising squads – a promising second-year quarterback with a lot of weapons surrounding him, a ferocious defensive front and having shown signs late last season. My belief in them has taken a bit of a dump unfortunately since I thought they did well to improve the offensive line, with Garrett Bolles on the left end being the only weak-spot, but now that Ja’Wuan James won’t be available at right tackle for the second straight year (injury last season and now opting out), their duo of OTs is a concern for me. Defensively you have to love what they have in the front seven, with Von Miller and now again Bradley Chubb coming off the edges, Jurrell Casey added to the interior to go with Shelby Harris and Alexander Johnson being an under-the-radar standout at linebacker. I’ve always been a big fan of Justin Simmons, but that second corner spot is still up in the air. I like Vic Fangio and that coaching staff they have put together in Denver, with Pat Shurmur providing a QB-friendly offense, the game’s best O-line coach in Mike Munchak and most of the people that have helped Fangio put out elite defenses at multiple stops before. So the Broncos are still the most dangerous opponent of the Chiefs in the AFC West, but now I’m not sure if they can add some drama over the fourth quarter of the season.
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17. Minnesota Vikings
At the same time, a team that has been a little overhyped to me this offseason is Minnesota. While I don’t love how the Packers have operated since February, what have the Vikings done to really improve? They traded away the best deep threat in the league last season in Stefon Diggs, stalwarts on the D-line in Everson Griffen and Linval Joseph are now gone, their entire group of corners has combined for less than 1500 career snaps and their offensive coordinator is now in Cleveland. I’m intrigued by the combination of Adam Thielen and Justin Jefferson, who could be pretty interchangeable in their roles and I like their 12 and 21 personnel groupings, but they lack depth at the receiver position. And the defense will be relying on several inexperienced pieces to step in. I mean their three starting corners from last year are off the team now. So I don’t really get how most people all of a sudden put them ahead of the Packers. With that being said, I like the offensive scheme and always thought Gary Kubiak was a huge factor in their success on the ground at least. On defense there are certainly question marks – especially in the secondary – but Minnesota could easily have a top five player at their respective position at all three levels, with Danielle Hunter, Eric Kendricks and Anthony Harris, plus they still have some promising young guys like Ifeadi Odenigbo, Mike Hughes and a deep rookie class. Their only true shade nose Michael Pierce opting out hurts though.
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18. New England Patriots
This offseason must have been a rollercoaster for Patriots fans. First, Tom Brady leaves and everybody goes crazy. Then people start getting onto the Jarrett Stidham hype train and talk about how good the rest of this team still is. Out of nowhere they sign Cam Newton for the veteran minimum basically and they are back in the conversation for the top teams in the AFC all of sudden. And now, they lead the league in players opting out of the season, with key defensive pieces like Dont’a Hightower and Patrick Chung, to go with a couple of role players on offense at least. So now they are right at the bottom of these fringe playoff teams for me, because purely based on the roster, they are not even in the top 20 league-wide, but they still have maybe the greatest defensive mind in NFL history in Bill Belichick and one of the best offensive play-callers right now in Josh McDaniels. Obviously a lot of this will come down to what version of Cam Newton we will get and even if he is and can stay totally healthy. Not only is New England the most adaptable team in terms of how they can adjust to personnel and how flexible they are with their game-plans, but Cam is a great fit in that offense, where he can spread the field and make decisions based on defenses adjusting. The one area that took the biggest bump – outside of quarterback I’m guessing – is the offensive line, because they lost a legendary position coach in Dante Scarnecchia and their probable starter at right tackle in Marcus Cannon. While the Pats do have some young players, who can replace part of the losses, they were already more in plan for the pieces that left before there was any virus outbreak.
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Around .500:

This broad group of seven teams represents all those franchises who will be dancing around .500 mark in the win-loss column. A couple of teams have the potential to win nine or ten games, while others could see those numbers on the wrong side of the column as well. There are obvious question marks in certain areas, even though they might feature top-tier players and/or coaches.
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19. Houston Texans
It’s kind of tough to put a team here that has won its division the last two years, but I think the Texans are pretty clearly number three in the South now. I love Deshaun Watson and I think he has fairly established himself as a top five quarterback in the NFL, but Bill O’Brien just took away an elite wide receiver in DeAndre Hopkins and replaced him with an injury-prone Brandin Cooks to go with another always banged up Will Fuller and a declining Randall Cobb, to go with a David Johnson in the backfield, who was unrecognizable last season. I think the O-line is improving, but outside of Laremy Tunsil maybe, they don’t have anybody other than Deshaun who is clearly above-average in their role. And defensively they finished in the bottom five in yards allowed and tied with Cincinnati (who picked first overall in the draft) for an NFL-high 6.1 yards allowed per play. Hopefully having J.J. Watt back for a full season should help, I like the selection of Ross Blacklock (TCU) on the inside and there are some talented young corners on this roster, who could be better much in 2020. I would not be surprised if they are that .500 team at heart and their quarterback carried them to a couple of wins that they weren’t supposed to get – which we have seen him do many times before – but it’s more likely to me that they are fighting for one of the two bottom Wildcard spots.
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20. Atlanta Falcons
Very rarely do you have a team that was among the worst over the first half of the season and among the best over the second half. The Falcons started out 2019 with a 1-7 record, but would go on to win six of the final eight games. Their defense was absolutely atrocious early on last season, with no pass-rush impacting the opposing quarterback and several miscues in coverage. With Raheem Morris taking over the defensive play-calling, they showed a lot of improvement already and there are signs that trend will continue. While there are some questions about the back-end and if they can get consistent production from their rush outside the top two guys, I think Dante Fowler is an upgrade over Vic Beasley, I like Marlon Davidson (Auburn) as a guy with inside-out flexibility on sub-packages and Keanu Neal is back healthy, as that Kam Chancellor-type, who can be that extra defender in the box in their system and punish receivers when catching the ball over the middle or in the flats. Offensively I believe this is still a team that can move the ball – they just have to start doing so earlier in games. While the top NFL receiver duo is in their own division with the guys in Tampa Bay, Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley could easily be that next one. They lost a very productive tight-end in Austin Hooper, but I believe Hayden Hurst can replace at least 80 percent of that production, and while we have no idea what we get from Todd Gurley and his knees at this point, last year the Falcons had one of the least effective per-touch backs in Devonta Freeman. Plus, the O-line should take a step forward with former first-round pick Chris Lindstrom returning from injury.
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21. Las Vegas Raiders
To me the Raiders are still in transition, not only moving to Las Vegas, but also in terms of roster construction and the culture Jon Gruden and Mike Mayock are trying to establish. Outside of Tyrell Williams, that entire group of receivers was overhauled, they have a lot of young pieces on the defensive line and the secondary, plus they will have at least two new starters on the second level of their defense. By far the biggest thing they have going for them is the offensive line and second-year back Josh Jacobs running behind it. When I did my top ten offensive lines in the NFL a couple of weeks ago, I had the Silver & Black at number five, and Jacobs was already a top 100 player in the league for me, with how physical and elusive a runner as he is. I could easily see the Raiders finish near the top in terms of ground production, and I also like the young guys they brought in around that, with Henry Ruggs III (Alabama) keeping the defense honest with his speed, Bryan Edwards (South Carolina) as a physical receiver, who will get hands after the catch, and Lynn Bowden Jr. (Kentucky) as that chess-piece potentially, that you can use in a multitude of way. My bigger question here is if Derek Carr is willing to push the ball down the field. Defensively I like the rotation they have on the interior D-line and the two linebackers they brought in via free agency, most notably Corey Littleton. There are still some questions about how snaps will be split between their corner group, but I’m excited to see a full season of Jonathan Abram hopefully. These guys have some attitude and an energetic head coach.
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22. Los Angeles Rams
Oh, how far we have come. Just one-and-a-half years ago the Rams were officially 20 spots higher basically, when they lost the Super Bowl to New England. Ahead of last season, I predicted them to miss the playoffs and while they made a bit of a run at it late, that’s what ended up happening. Now I see them as the fourth team in their own division – even though that says more about the competition they face rather than them. I still believe in Sean McVay and his ability to win on paper with play-design and game-planning, but Jared Goff has turned out to be an average quarterback, they don’t have a prime Todd Gurley setting the table anymore and the offensive line had some major issues, for large stretches of last season, especially in the run game. I was very high on Cam Akers, who they selected in the second round out of Florida State, but he will obviously be a rookie with shortened preparation, rather than an Offensive Player of the Year like Gurley was for them. Defensively, they have two elite players in Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey and I like some of the other guys in their roles, but overall the high-end talent beyond the two biggest names isn’t overly impressive. Leonard Floyd might be their top edge rusher and he has always been more of a Robin, they have no proven commodity as stand-up linebacker and I have yet to see if Brandon Staley can actually be an upgrade over Wade Phillips as their defensive coordinator.
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23. Detroit Lions
While I was going back and forth with putting the Lions third or fourth in the NFC North, I recently said they are among the top two teams that could go from worst to first in their division and I would not be surprised if they were in the hunt for a Wildcard spot in the last couple of weeks of the season. His second year in a system under Darrell Bevell – where he wasn’t just going in shotgun 40 times a game and asked to make magic happen – Matthew Stafford looked like an MVP candidate as long as he was healthy in 2019. That duo of Kerryon Johnson and my top-ranked running back in the draft D’Andre Swift (Georgia) could be one of the most dynamic ones in the league, the receiving corp is highly underrated and I like those rookies competing for the two guard spots. Defensively, they seem to finally look like what Matt Patricia wanted, when he came over from New England, in terms being versatile with their fronts and having guys who can take on receivers in man-coverage. With that being said, there is also a good chance that the Patricia experiment could go to shambles, if some of the veterans get turned off by his style of coaching without having established that winning culture, and this team has simply been dealing with too many injuries to key players. I don’t think there is much of a gap between the Lions and Vikings for example, but Detroit has not shown the stability of some other organizations.
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24. Chicago Bears
A franchise that I don’t really hear anybody talk about – unless it’s their quarterback competition – is that team from the Windy City. I understand that the Bears aren’t really sexy because they lack those superstars on offense that people will recognize, but I’m higher on some of the guys they do have on that side of the ball and on defense they could be much closer to 2018, when they led the league in points allowed and turnovers forced, rather than being just inside the top in most categories last season. A guy I already predicted to break out for Chicago this upcoming season with a bigger workload is running back David Montgomery, to go with Anthony Miller as a gadget player and developing young pass-catcher and one of the more underappreciated receivers out there in Allen Robinson. Defensively, I thought the biggest issue last season was Akiem Hicks missing double-digit games, as a table-setter with his ability to disrupt plays from the interior, and Leonard Floyd didn’t provide much on the opposite side of Khalil Mack, who they upgrade from with Robert Quinn, who just had his best season since the Rams were still in St. Louis. Now, I don’t love what they have at that second safety spot to complement Eddie Jackson, someone will have to fill that second corner spot – even though I’m a fan of second-round pick Jaylon Johnson (Utah) – and nose tackle Eddie Goldman opting out is a huge loss. If the quarterback position can just complement the rushing attack and the defense plays up to their potential, this group could be competing for second in the North, but Foles or Trubisky could still hold them back.
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https://preview.redd.it/aep6uj385di51.png?width=1060&format=png&auto=webp&s=07674898e4de7d73699c065907983e69612c56a4
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The final tier is in the comments!!
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If you enjoyed this breakdown, I would really appreciate if you could visit the original piece - https://halilsrealfootballtalk.com/2020/08/18/ranking-all-32-nfl-teams-in-tiers-pre-season/
You can also listen to my analysis on the Youtube channel - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zz7WE0epZw8

In an attempt to stir up something more substantial in how it relates to the current Jimmy discussion, I wanted to put forth some interesting ideas (involving Jimmy and not) so that we could simply think about the road ahead. The NFL is extremely hard to predict, but as fans of the 49ers, I believe we'd all like to examine the future and imagine those in which we win another Lombardi. I like the memes too, don't get me wrong, but I'm not a huge fan of the tiny whining posts. Let's try to make something with a little more meat to it.
Now, be warned. There will be extremely unpopular OPINIONS below. But, if you don't like hot takes, stay out of Real's kitchen. That's what I always say... or at least, I'm saying it now... okay, I won't say it again. Anyways, here we go.
Other Options - Part 1:
That's right, I said it. Here are things as I see it.

1. We continue to play with Jimmy G at the helm. Look, this is NOT a doomsday opinion because we lost the opener, it's the way I've personally felt since last season. This guy isn't going to win a Super Bowl of his own volition. If we win a Super Bowl with him (I am agreeing that it's possible, by the way), it would ultimately in spite of his ability, not because of it. It's not as bad as having Trent Dilfer at QB, so if he can win one maybe Jimmy can too, but he's just simply not this out of the world potential talent that people once thought he could grow into. I am of the opinion that he essentially played at his cap at the end of 2017 when we thought that was his floor and believed he would grow tremendously.
   The reality is... he's okay. He might even be the new Dalton line, to be honest. He's better than other starters in the league, but we also have probably the easiest starting QB job in the entire National Football League. Our team is fucking stacked at a lot of key positions. The QB here is asked to throw with a quick release in the short to intermediate range in fairly open lanes. This is often times due to Shanahan's WR philosophy of "one can be schemed into an open look, what matters more is what is done once the ball is in your hands."
   Here are some of the other requirements of being the 49ers QB - do NOT take a sack if it can be helped, do NOT be inaccurate on these short range passes, and be smart enough to absorb this playbook. Compared to every single starting QB job in the league, it's less responsibility. The only exception MIGHT be the Titans and Tannehill's position, but only because their offense is far more rudimentary in it's application, largely because they have a Henry. It works for them, I'm not knocking the Titans at all, Shanahan's offense is just objectively more intricate. Now, be honest, even a guy like Gardner Minshew (who seems pretty good honestly!) is asked to do more than Jimmy is here. Jimmy often times struggles to meet those requirements (specifically, inconsistent accuracy) while excelling at his quick release, which ultimately doesn't matter if you aren't accurate, as well as his smarts. Jimmy is a smart guy, scoring 29 on the Wonderlic. Just how important is the Wonderlic for QB's? It's debatable. Lamar Jackson scored a 13. What isn't debatable is that counting Mahomes, the last 10 Super Bowl-winning quarterbacks — Tom Brady (33), Nick Foles (29), Peyton Manning (28), Russell Wilson (28), Joe Flacco (27), Eli Manning (39), Aaron Rodgers (35), Drew Brees (28) and Ben Roethlisberger (25) — had an average Wonderlic score of 29.6. I'd argue it's probably more important for one of the hardest playbooks in the league.
   Now, IF this is the option, I think the absolute best way to go about it is to pay Jimmy in a bracket that makes us reach a sweet spot in between of paying a rookie QB and resetting the market for your franchise guy. I don't think the $27.5m average is worth it for ol' Jimbo even if the top tier QB's keep making more and more money. He simply doesn't belong in that category or conversation. I'm not sure what exactly this figure should be, but it is probably in the $19m to $25m range for a per year average, but obviously it all depends on a multitude of things (how much QB contracts continue to trend up, how far the cap drops and what it's at when you got to extend him, etc.) Currently, he's on the books for $23.8m this year, and $24.1 in 2021, and $24.2 in 2022. The ultimate idea here is that if we can't have an upper echelon QB, he should be paid less than he currently is, and that way we can at least try to stay stacked in as many positions as financially possible. At any higher a dollar figure, I'd have a tough time not thinking it'd be better to draft a kid that costs like $4m - $7m a year and going aggressive in free agency for years to come.
   

Other Options - Part 2:
Now, here's where it's actually actually gets real spicy boys, buckle up.

1. If Rodgers wants to leave Green Bay, we're obviously the prime candidate and I'm highly interested even if it's only for a season or two. This would be one of, if not, the best team he's ever been on. Granted, he's probably gonna light it up this year and they'll just let Love rot on the bench behind him if they have to. Like brady, I don't think he'll leave until he's over the hill, if he does leave at all. Despite their apparent rift (Rodgers and Green Bay's management) they'll eventually trade bait Love and draft someone else to be the heir in a few years. Rodgers still has seasons (plural) of top 3-5 QB left in him, in my opinion. I'd bet a lot of chicken nuggets that he'd bring a Super Bowl to The Bay with this roster.
   
2. If the Browns get smoked on Thursday and they initiate "Lose for Lawrence" protocol and ditch the sunk-cost fallacy due to the recent Arizona Cardinals successful model of doing so, I'd love to have Baker Mayfield. There, I said it. Hammer me for it, go ahead. Let me hear it - "Baker sucks!" "He's washed!" "What a trashcan!" "Can't pass to OBJ and Landry wtf is he gonna do here?!"
   Ok, shut up and let me tell you.
   I like this kid. I know his mentality/demeanor might not be your thing, but let me tell you one thing that might change your mind even just a little bit - it's not an act for him. The dude has a genuine and strong-willed belief that he can be the best. Despite the cliche, I think that (while it can manifest in many different ways) trait is borderline required to be "that guy" in the National Football League. Wilson, Mahomes, Lamar, they all do it different ways. Wilson through copious amounts of seemingly (but probably, not really) kinda fake "goodness" and miracle water sales. Lamar just has Mark Ingram say it all for him. Mahomes has his ketchup on steak swagger. If you want to compare Baker's demeanor to any current top QB, it's honestly probably Rodgers. Lots of people don't like Rodgers cause he's kinda an arrogant prick sometimes. Baker is similar. Regardless of how successful he has been so far and therefore can't back it up yet, that didn't seem to matter to Rodgers either when he said he'd make us regret not drafting him before he ever played a down in the league.
   Now, onto his play. I watched this guy in person a couple of times while visiting my brother who was going to OU during Baker's reign. I think he's legit. His arm is actually pretty powerful (somehow this has become a flipped narrative on /nfl lately) and I've personally seen him overthrow a receiver that was slowing down because of a whistle (during Baker's windup so he let it loose anyways) uncorking an absolutely BEAUTIFUL 70 yarder. He sits low into his throw really naturally and, memes aside, the boy has a THICC rear end so he can really get down and generate power from below and through the hips like you're supposed to.
   Here's the problem though - he's not playing well right now. Why? Well, part of it is his Alex Smith-esque cast of Duck Duck Goose OC's and HC's (I believe he set the record for the most changes this early in his career in the off season). I think another large part of it is the toxic football relationship he has with OBJ and attempting to feed him. That's just my opinion, but let's at least look at some stats. At OU, he was extremely accurate. 68.1%, 70.9%, and 70.5% in his 3 years there. That puts him in the same range as Drew "The Wild Midget" Brees and "The Sons of Drew Brees" (otherwise known as guys that aren't trusted to make hard throws, lol)
   

2019 Completion % Rankings	Percentage
1. Drew Brees	74.3% (nuts)
2. Derek Carr	70.4%
3. Ryan Tannehill	70.3%
4. Jimmy Garoppolo	69.1%
5. Kirk Cousins	69.1%
...	...
31. Baker Mayfield	59.4%

• Now, let's analyze this a bit. First of all, one of these guys is not like the other. Drew Brees. He pretty much consistently shits on everybody with 70%+ and the other top guys that year are usually a full couple of percent lower than him (been that way since like 2017). I'm not sure if it will be the same this year, but he's adapted with his age to continue to make even shorter, and more sure-fire throws. Brees is great.
  
• Second of all, look at the rest of the names, any pattern here? These are all guys that are largely asked to do less, to varying degrees, than most QB's. They also have good run games. Carr has Jacobs with Gruden's offense, Tannehill with the Hulk in the backfield, us with Mostert and the Island of Misfit Toys, and Cousins with the Chef. Now, having the highest completion percentage doesn't necessarily mean they're the best QB (Jackson was #9, Mahomes was #11) but it is important.
  
• Third of all, I would be willing to bet several burritos that Jimmy will not reach his 2019 completion percentage again in his career. His passing mechanics are regressing (or not improving, if you want to word it slightly less harshly) and his footwork especially is alarming, although you could indicate that he's not confident in his line, but it would also be slightly worrisome to say that he can't be trusted to make a mechanically sound pass if the line isn't perfect, so either way you look at it the mechanics are an issue. I'm willing to give him a pass on this until he at least gets a 2nd string Center back, though. It is frustrating though because he allegedly was improving in training camp, then we all saw the Cardinals game. Still, I'll give it a pass for now.
  
• Lastly as it relates to this list, and I will yell it out for the people in the back: THE QB OF THE 49ERS UNDER KYLE SHANAHAN SHOULD BE AT THE TOP OF THIS LIST. Almost without compromise. This relates back to what a QB is asked to do here. Jimmy had some of the lowest "Average Intended Yards" of any QB in the league last season. I just thought that this thread by wafflehauss was pretty neat from Week 1 last season, because not much changed. To be clear, I'm not really ripping Jimmy here, I'm just trying to illustrate that we aren't pushing this guy to some unrealistic standards or anything. The starting QB job in SF is physically easier than most places, and there are a lot of advanced metrics that point to that. The completion percentage should always be nuts. With Jimmy's mechanical issues seemingly not improving, and the interior of our line not improving, his accuracy will continue to get worse and worse because he is not much of an improv guy and he definitely "feels" pressure. 3:10 here. His scrambling is... not natural and whether or not you want to blame that on his ACL that's fine, but regardless he resorts to completely fuckified tactics once the pocket gets a little dirty.
  

Other Options - Part 2 Continued:
Now, lets look at Baker's most recent game and analyze some of the problems there. Highlight link.
Timestamps:

• 2:20 – beautiful roll out and a laser to Landry with a great covered catch.
  
• 2:59 – despite him seeming to trip on the dropback, Baker - frequently shows off a nice touch pass that he has. This one is wide open and “easy”, but he does it a lot. He really has a great ability to “drop” the ball into the receivers hands, especially on out routes.
  
• 3:50 – this is a routine pass for him, and one that would be expected of him a lot on a team like ours. You could argue that there is some wasted movement in the dropback here, but I'd rather see a little waste than have him throw off the back foot whenever it isn’t necessary. He delivers the pass in stride. Don't misunderstand me here, this is not a remarkable throw or anything, I am merely pointing out that he performs the intricacies to success in our offense well.
  
• 3:59 – off balance, but manages to set and deliver a ball with higher velocity than Jimmy is capable of. Here's proof of that. Baker has a cannon. Jimmy is not bad in this category, but Baker is in the top tier. I was slightly impressed by this one.
  
• 5:44 – this is something I was gonna highlight further, but this is a great example of it. Baker has a great, stealthy handoff. This is something that helps sell your play action pass (which I'll get into in a second), but Chubb doesn’t even try to sell it and immediately puts his hands back up, but this isn’t something the secondary can see and therefore doesn’t matter too much as this isn’t a super long developing route. Baker shoots and throws a great pass into the small soft spot of the secondary near the numbers.
  
• 5:55 – cool touch here by Baker despite the foot placement, and Njoku makes a great catch. I can’t tell if Young got to him and forced him a couple feet away from his desired trajectory or not in the slight time we can’t see on camera. If not, Baker could’ve placed this a lot better.
  
• 6:12 – there is something wrong with Beckham to be dropping a crucial pass like this on 3rd down. He has even said himself that Baker’s velocity is an issue for him, but he didn’t even rocket this pass. 3 receptions for 10 targets in this game, I really hate the way they’re trying to force feed him. This is not an indictment against him specifically either as some of the passes Baker threw him were dogshit, I just don’t think he’s well used in this way for the Browns and these sorts of drops specifically aren’t Baker’s fault.
  
• 7:34 – this, though, is entirely Baker’s fault. Ball wobbles a bit and he stared down Beckham through the whole route and gets the ball smacked down by one of the best in the game. This is part of what I mean by "Baker and OBJ's toxic relationship". Baker was honestly better without OBJ's stardom and was much better at spreading the ball around when it was him, Landry, and some decent receivers all around.
  
• 8:26 – say what you want about this pass, but I liked that Baker thought “I can beat 36 right over his head”. I like throwing to your best receiver on 3rd and 7 WAY BETTER than checking down and getting 4 yards instead. His demeanor feeds into him making “gunslinger” (I know I hate it too) throws like this frequently.
  
• 8:38 – he does it again here. Yeah, the Ravens are up 25 but their starting secondary is still on the field here, which is one of the best in the league. I like the soft spot throws here, and his arm allows him to do it.
  
• 10:15 – he loads it up and misses Beckham here, should’ve been a score. I think all the purple scared him. A tiny display of his arm strength, though.
  

So, just a quick overview of that game. The Ravens are amazing and the Browns suck. This is known. I didn't watch the all-22, but I watched the game. Baker makes some pretty big mistakes and some pretty bad throws in it. I am willing to bet Shanahan could turn him into a star, though. Kevin Stefanski is... not in Kyle's stratosphere as a Head Coach or Playcaller, in my opinion.
Now, one other thing I wanted to point out is Baker's massive strength in play action, as this site shows, Mayfield's passer rating was 36.8 points better on pass attempts involving play action.
It continues with some neat numbers in reference to last season. “From Weeks 1-8, the Browns offense used play-action on only 26.6% of Mayfield’s dropbacks, which was 15th in the league. The Browns were 2-5 over the time period and struggled immensely on the offensive side of the ball. In contrast, from Weeks 9-12, the Browns offense has utilized play-action on 40.0% of Mayfield’s dropbacks, which is the most in the league, with a corresponding 3-1 record. Mayfield has posted the following statistics and ranks using the strategy:

• 44 completions on 60 attempts (most)
  
• 574 passing yards (most)
  
• 4 touchdowns (T-2nd)
  
• 15.2 completion percentage differential (8th)
  
• 125.3 passer rating (9th)
  

Compare that to the 60% of dropbacks where play-action was not deployed over the same time frame:

• 50 completions on 86 attempts (T-17th most)
  
• 457 passing yards (23rd)
  
• 4 touchdowns (T-8th)
  
• 83.3 passer rating (17th)”
  

So, what's my overall point here? I ultimately didn't want to answer my take on the future of this team at the QB position with "LeTs JuSt GeT LaWrEnCe LoL" or something overly-homerish about Jimmy. I tried to think of a more legitimate and realistic answer, with a scenario that involves Jimmy and two that don't.
In conclusion, my point is this: I believe Baker Mayfield, at about 3.5 years younger than Jimmy G, could be his replacement, at a lower cost, for marginally to seriously improved production from the QB position on this team. I still believe Mayfield has star potential. I do not believe Jimmy does. I understand that many fans on /nfl and /browns believe he's a total bust, but I do not. He is nowhere near perfect, but I legitimately think he could be plugged into this exact offense (with a down year, just like Jimmy and Matt had) with more success than Jimmy will provide. Shanahan will be his new Lincoln Riley and revive him to great heights. I think the Niners should acquire him and cut bait on Jimmy if the opportunity were to present itself because the Browns decided that "Lose for Lawrence" is the better option than Mayfield.

• I think Baker has a better arm than Jimmy.
  
• I think Baker is smart enough to figure our offense out.
  
• I think Baker can make the short and intermediate throws required more consistently than Jimmy.
  
• I think Baker can perform even better than Jimmy in our already extremely prominent overall usage of the play action pass.
  
• I think Baker can scramble a bit more naturally than Jimmy in a wonky pocket.
  
• I think Baker is more capable of big plays that break the game open.
  
• I think Baker can provide the moxie on offense that this team doesn't have when Deebo or Kittle aren't on the field (but regardless, having it come from your defacto leader is invaluable).
  
• I think the 49ers could win a Super Bowl BECAUSE of Baker Mayfield, not in spite of him.
  

Now, you may downvote, but I hope instead you contribute with something substantial. Thank you for your time.
Edit: Spelling mistakes.