NBA Public Betting & Money Percentages The Action Network
NBA Public Betting & Money Percentages The Action Network
Betting Against the Public Odds Shark
NBA Betting News & Matchups Odds Shark
NBA Basketball Public Betting Chart - See Who The Public ...
NBA public betting, line movement, sharp money September 9
It is time to be honest about the WNBA
The NBA is the parent company to the WNBA, since there is no WNBAdiscussion I figured this would be the place to speak openly and honestly about the WNBA from a 15 year NBA fan's perspective. For those unfamiliar with the origins of the WNBA the league was founded 24 years ago by the NBA under commissioner David Stern. The goal of this league was to get more women interested in basketball and to give Top-level American talent a place to play on the home front. Good intentions and for the first 5 years of the WNBA's existence things were looking up, the league expanded from 8 teams in 1996 to 16 teams to start the 2002 season. Average attendance started at roughly 9000 per game in 1996, spiked to 11k per game in 1998 and declined back to 9k per game in 2002. Therein lies the first issue with the WNBA, after 2002 the per game attendance numbers started a slow decline, so much so that by time 2010 rolled around many teams were relocated to smaller arenas or simply folded. There are now 12 teams in the WNBA and only 3 of the founding teams are in the same city. (4 founding teams folded and 1 was relocated 3 times) The viewership and per-game attendance numbers were always low, people blame lack of marketing but if we're being honest almost every single person knows the WNBA exists. I believe that the main is reason is the general sports watching market is simply uninterested in professional women's basketball. Think about it, how many people do you know who watch the WNBA? Who buy the jerseys? or even go to WNBA games? (Pre-corona) I'm willing to bet that the number is quite low. The majority of sports consumers are male and the WNBA was created to lure females into sport consumption. On paper the idea makes sense right? 50% of people don't really watch sports and most are female, why not try to and acquire that market? The problem is in reality women consume so many other types of media that the WNBA simply does not compare to. Social Media sites, YouTube and even the Kardashians have higher rates of engagement and support than the WNBA ever will. Adam Silver even revealed during this interview that they are frustrated that women are not showing up to the games. He also revealed that the WNBA is supported predominantly by older men. The next problem is the biggest issue with the WNBA, there is a huge lack of entertainment value when you actually watch a game. Don't get me wrong, these women are phenomenal players and are fundamentally very very good. The problem is that biology is a bit of a motherfucker. Women cannot compare to men in terms of strength, acceleration or verticality. Think about a player like Gary Harris. His vertical leaping ability and hangtime in this play is absurd. Gary Harris is a solid player but he is no superstar player like Lisa Leslie or Candace Parker or even Brittany Griner. Yet those are the only 3 players in the WNBA to have dunked ever and none of them could jump like Harris can. When you watch an NBA game there is always a chance to see a moment that captures our imaginations or even exceed them. Think about this play JR Smith of all people did something that looked incredible. The entire stadium got on its feet, you probably have chills from watching that play. That is the power of the NBA. The WNBA suffers from a lack of athleticism compared to the NBA and unless we make serious strides in genetic engineering that gap will simply never be closed. Now we have to talk about money, a touchy subject because the WNBA does not share it's financial data with the public. Adam Silver also admitted that the WNBA receives 12 million a year from the NBA as a stipend yet the league itself still loses 20 million a year on average since its founding. Now all this would be scary enough to look at if I was a member of the WNBPA but the strange thing is all the coverage on the financials of the league are about the wage-gap between the two leagues. Granted initially the WNBPA said they just wanted the same percentage of BRI (basketball related income) as the men's league (men's league gets 50%). However if your league takes in roughly 60 million a year in income and loses 20 million a year, why would you be entitled to the same percentage? Your labor is not generating profits even close to what a healthy professional league should be. Even if you triple the WNBA salary cap does it make the league more watchable? As per my earlier arguments I believe the answer is no. Most WNBA players actually play overseas during the offseason in Eastern Europe and earn up to triple their WNBA income. Which begs the question why even come back? Just play in Europe make your money and rest during the regular WNBA season. If you were a software engineer in Ohio and you got offered triple your salary to work in Poland or Turkey how seriously would you consider that job offer? This isn't a manifesto trying to take down women's sports. I enjoy women's tennis, I loved watching the US women's soccer team run rampant over the world cup and even female golfers are starting to gain popularity which is fantastic! This is specifically about how the WNBA is a league on the decline and it has failed to establish a foothold in the US. The market isn't there, the product is subpar, the business is bad and the players make significantly more money elsewhere. I am curious to hear what you guys have to say about the WNBA, do you think it has a future? If so what can the league do to generate interest ?
Oct/12/2020 wrap-up: \\ War in Karabakh (Artsakh) \\ Battles in north (Mrav), north-east (Talish), and south (Hadrut) \\ Erdogan's cozy relations with terrorist groups \\ jihadists exposed \\ Casualty report \\ Flashback 1990s: first Karabakh war \\ Ilham feels insulted \\ the international response
Russian outlet analyses the terrorist recruitment and deployment operations in Turkey, Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Syria.
news-front.info article: in early September, Turkish police arrested one of ISIS leaders, Emir Mahmud Ozden, who allegedly tried to plot attacks on Turkish soil to pressure the government. Emir used to be friendly with Turkish special forces in the early 2000s. In 2012 he joined ISIS and began organizing the transfer of jihadists to Syria from Northern Caucasus, Crimea, and Central Asia. Before moving to Syria, the jihadists would stop in Turkey and undergo training. It's unclear what had broken up the relationship between Emir and Turkish special forces in the 2000s.
This July, there were two anti-terror raids in Izmir (Turkey), and Batumi (Georgia), which resulted in the arrest of 78 militants, 9 of whom were Turkish citizens, illegally residing in Georgia. One of the arrested men in Georgia was Binal Jamgioz, the second in command of Turkish [ultra-nationalist terrorist] organization Grey Wolves (GW). He was engaged in money laundering, arms sales, and recruitment of ethnic Turkic Uyghurs in China for a separatist movement. Back in 2014, Binal Jamgioz was recruiting militants in Azerbaijan and Georgia to fill the ranks of ISIS in Syria. [About GW. Turkish special forces were using this group to suppress opposition, assassinate union activists, Kurdish activists, journalists, politicians. They are responsible for the death of thousands of Kurds.] Binal Jamgioz reports to the leader of GW Devlet Bahcheli, and a billionaire and cash-machine of GW Ismail Chelebi. Chelebi resides in Georgia while remotely managing the GW financing in Turkey, Caucasus, and Central Asia.
In April, Turkey's Erdogan pardoned another large GW donor and a known mafioso Alaattin Chakothi. A question arises: why did Erdogan make so many GW arrests in September if he's also friendly with some GW leaders? Erdogan might be trying to send a message that these radical groups must play exclusively by his rules. Erdogan had instructed the members of ISIS, GW, Al Qaida, and few others to fight in Libya and Karabakh. The leaders of [ultra-nationalist] GW had refused to fight in Libya due to not seeing a benefit for the Turkic world. Meanwhile, leaders of other Islamic militant groups had refused to fight in Karabakh in support of secular-Shia Azerbaijan. In the end, they were forced by Erdogan to agree to fight, in exchange for freedom. The full article contains more info about Karabakh. The above translation is a fraction of it: https://news-front.info/2020/10/10/ustami-erdogana-london-i-vashington-dayut-signal-rossii-v-karabahe/
50 more jihadists are reported dead
Middle East reporter says 50 more Syrian militants were killed in Artsakh. Among them are Ibrahim Jum'a and Ahmed Lahalak from Rastan. The 50 bodies will arrive at the Hiwar Kilis crossing soon. The source is a fighter with the Levant Front, a Turkish-backed group from Rastan. He personally knowns the two aforementioned militants. Photos: https://twitter.com/Elizrael/status/1315699232699973632
Ilham Aliyev feels personally insulted by Russia
The overly self-conscious autocrat of Azerbaijan, who recently resorted to using camera filters to make his skin appear bronzed on TV, feels personally insulted by Russian media outlets for not being pro-Azerbaijan enough. "I have always said that Russians are attracted to Azerbaijan not only by cuisine, beaches, history, but also by the fact that they feel comfortable, they feel in their environment. They talk to people in Russian. You probably know that nowhere there are so many schools in Russian as in Azerbaijan. But you have already spent several days here and you know how the factor of the Armenian occupation influences the mood of the people. People catch every word, every gesture, every facial expression. And, of course, I will tell you frankly: during these two weeks, when on some Russian channels we see rabid anti-Azerbaijani propaganda, falsification, manipulation, an unbalanced composition of talk show participants, when the Azerbaijani people are insulted, the president of Azerbaijan is insulted on the leading Russian channels - this, of course, does not add credibility to Russia," Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev said in an interview with RBC. (Context: prominent Azeri reporter was fired from Russian media outlets for justifying the bombing of an Armenian church in Shushi. Russian prime-time TV shows are critical of Azerbaijan for bringing Turkey and jihadists into the conflict.) https://web.archive.org/web/20201011210840/http://azeridaily.com/politics/58892
the ethnic minority oppression and their history of pushing for independence from Azerbaijan
CivilNet outlet: during the Karabakh pro-independence movement in 1988, when ethnic cleansings of Armenians were committed by Azeris, the ethnic Udis, who were predominantly Christian and very close to Armenian, even with their first names, were also forced to flee Azerbaijan. Most Udis moved to Russia but some had settled in Armenia's Noyemberyan region. During the first Karabakh war, two minorities were "active" in Azerbaijan. Lezgins created the "Sadval" movement in 1990 to preserve their ethnic identity. The second movement was by Talysh, led by Aylakram Gumbatov, who even managed to establish the Talysh Republic in the southern Lenkoran region, for a brief period. Lezgins, who live in northern Azerbaijan, live on the Azeri and Russian sides of the border. Talysh, who live in the south, are divided between Iran and the Azerbaijani border. There are no widespread attempts by ethnic Talysh and Lezgins to establish independence today. Aylakram Gumbatov, the leader of the self-proclaimed Talysh Republic in the 90s, was later arrested and sentenced to death but was subsequently pardoned and exiled. "Artsakh could serve as a role model and allow these persecuted Azeri minorities to settle in Artsakh and have representation in Artsakh Parliament." https://youtu.be/tmYU6nWA3Cw
NY Post Editorial Board: Erdogan’s proxy war in Armenia in an ugly echo of Turkey’s genocidal campaign century ago. On Sept. 27, Azerbaijan resumed its conflict with Armenia, accusing it of unprovoked attacks. At issue is the Nagorno-Karabakh enclave, a mountainous territory of 150,000 people (mostly ethnic Armenians) that is internationally recognized as part of Azerbaijan, but claimed and governed by Armenia since an earlier war. The Azeris are plainly the aggressors: They not only outnumber the Armenians 3-to-1, they’ve been modernizing their military with a huge assist from the Turks. Full: https://nypost.com/2020/10/11/erdogans-proxy-war-in-armenia-is-an-echo-of-turkeys-genocidal-campaign/
October 12th arrives / the battlefield / international response
8:31 MoD: the front lines were relatively stable-tense last night. Azeris are shelling the southern front right now. https://twitter.com/ShStepanyan/status/1315510964578590726?s=20 9:02 Artsakh army: the northern, north-eastern, and southern fronts were active. All the Azeri attack attempts were repelled. They sustained heavy human and equipment losses. Their ongoing artillery fires are being suppressed with appropriate measures. https://t.me/infocomm/23021 10:32 army: the operation to locate and destroy the Hadrut infiltrators continues. Azeris accumulated large backup forces with an attempt to enter the city. There are fierce battles. https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1031307.html , https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1031309.html 11:28: Artavazd Knyazyan, an Armenian-Spanish businessman, has posthumously received the title of Artsakh Hero. https://factor.am/294320.html 11:39 army spokesman: I have repeatedly referred to the fact that it is not so appropriate to indicate clear positions, landscapes, even settlements at this stage of the war. The war is fierce, the Armenian army is fighting hard against the Turkish-Azerbaijani forces, which is several times larger and is fully supported by the Turkish air force, other intelligence systems, a large number of mercenaries, terrorists, and private military organizations. The Armenian army is resisting these forces with great success, with such success that even international experts mention it. According to the tactical-operative necessity, the defense army carries out both retreat and change of lines, as well as attack and counterattack. Trust our army, we will win. https://factor.am/294327.html 12:30: soldiers released a video from the front lines. https://youtu.be/fx2cj1aXwhA 12:58 army: the losses from the Azeri side: 4919 soldiers (one Lt. Colonel today), 4 TOS (Solntzepyok?), 514 tanks and armored vehicles, 17 aircrafts, 16 helicopters, 168 drones, etc. https://factor.am/294389.html , https://t.me/infoteka24/8698 13:26: army released footage showing the destruction of another Azeri AN-2 drone. https://youtu.be/eP95wv5DdD0 https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1031324.html 13:38: Azeri media reports that the Azeri govt is accumulating more riot gear and water trucks to disperse possible demonstrations. "Some residents aren't happy that the govt keeps the data about casualties secret." The war resulted in large migration from bordering cities Ganja, Terter, Barda, Gerambo towards Baku. Azeri Telegram channels earlier shared a video showing large vehicle traffic near a Baku suburb called Kherdalan. The police blocked the road to prevent them from reaching Baku. Azeri Twitter began sharing a hashtag that demands answers from Aliyev. https://youtu.be/LOGVjlPnSzw https://factor.am/294412.html 14:23: Artsakh president Arayik met the veterans of the first Karabakh war. "In this dire state, we must all stand up as one." https://news.am/arm/news/607506.html
CivilNet recalls the first Karabakh war in 1990 to draw comparisons: today, the heaviest battles are in southern borders between Horadiz and Jabrayil; it's about a 15km section. This isn't new. In the 90s, when Azeris attacked, that's where their Operation Ring was carried out. It was around Hadrut. In the winter of 1994 when Azeris made their last push, we lost a lot of lands there, then recaptured some of it. The line of contact stopped between the Armenian and Azeri towns of Horadiz (both similarly named). Those 5 months were Aliyev's last push. Armenians suffered 2,000 deaths and Azeris 5,000. The situation was also dire in 1992 when Abulfaz Elchibey won the elections and started a new war. Azeris captured Martakert and Shahumyan in a few weeks. They captured 40% of Karabakh. That's what I call "dire". Another dire situation was in 1991 and Karabakh leader Leonard Ter-Petrosyan went to Baku to negotiate with Azeri president Mutallibov. Another dire one was in 1992 when the Lachin corridor with Armenia was about to be blocked. At the time, Azeris controlled the northern Qarvachar region and were pushing south to cut off Artsakh from Armenia. Only a few kilometers were left from the Lachin corridor. How did Armenians change the course? It was the Armenian political unity, cold-heartedness, lack of panicking, good governance, problems within Azerbaijan. Ceasefires have been broken before. On April 10, 1992, while the Russian delegation was there for negotiations, the Azeri army entered Maragha village and massacred dozens of civilians. The war isn't easy to stop; it's expected that today's ceasefire is hard to achieve. More: https://youtu.be/X75N4yEp7Kk
14:37: European Parliament MP Jaromir Stetina has called for the official recognition of the Artsakh Republic. "What is happening now is dictator Aliyev's policy towards small Artsakh. In order for all this to stop, the international community, and first of all European Union, must recognize Artsakh as an independent state." https://armlur.am/1050860/ https://infoteka24.ru/2020/10/12/72262/ 14:52: Russian MFA says it's important to follow the ceasefire agreement reached in Moscow. https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1031334.html , https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1031336.html. 15:22 army: we shot down an Azeri Su-25 jet in the north. The Turkish F-16 jets continue to accompany and aid the Azeri jets. Hours later: at first Azeris denied losing Su-25, then their front line administration confirmed it, without realizing that we had already confirmed it. https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1031340.html , https://news.am/arm/news/607558.html 15:25: Los Angeles Lakers player Danny Green expressed solidarity with Armenians, saying "they want peace but are under attack now". Lakers won their 17th NBA champion title yesterday and tied it with Boston. https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1031342.html 15:27: British journalist Dominic Lowson wrote an article for The Sunday Times, in which he criticized Boris Johnson for his silence over Turkish aggression. He reminded that Johnson's great grandfather was a Turkish man named Ali Kemal who was murdered in Turkey and had an Armenian name written on his body for his support for Armenians and the condemnation of the Armenian genocide. The article notes that Artsakh has already voted to be independent from Azerbaijan. https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1031338.html. https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/turkeys-game-is-lethal-as-johnson-well-knows-5zz5v57kx 15:47: the Armenian side reaffirms commitment to the humanitarian ceasefire if Azeris do the same. https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1031347.html 16:25: Armenian MFA met his Russian colleague and spoke about Azerbaijan's involvement of jihadists, "which poses a threat to the whole region." https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1031353.html 15:07: PM Pashinyan held a meeting with non-parliamentary and opposition parties (HHK, ARF, etc.) to discuss various topics about independence recognition, security, possible official military agreement with Artsakh, etc. The ambassador to several states entered the government building after the meeting. Pashinyan urged the ambassadors to recognize Artsakh republic during the meeting, "which will help end the humanitarian crisis." Ruling party MP says that Armenia should recognize the Artsakh Republic only after another state does. https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1031359.html , https://factor.am/294472.html , https://factor.am/294469.html , https://factor.am/294458.html , https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1031390.html 15:10: Armenians have intercepted a radio communication of Azeri Syrian jihadists near southern borders. Some segments are presented, about how they discuss miserable conditions, mistreatment by Azeri commanders, snipers shooting some Azeris in the back in case of surrender, them being told to be careful not to shoot at the Iran border, etc. Video: https://youtu.be/ivh80u7pPy8 https://factor.am/294475.html https://youtu.be/53KtWWZhY4U 15:17: Galina Simova, the community leader of the 1,500 ethnic Russian community of Artsakh, has asked Vladimir Putin to take steps to stop the bombardment of civilian settlements and to "fight the Syrian militants in Karabakh just as Russia fights them in Syria because they are a direct threat to Russia, too." Full: https://news.am/arm/news/607521.html 16:51 Armenian MFA: we agree to the installation of a ceasefire verification mechanism across the border, but Azerbaijan refuses. https://news.am/arm/news/607545.html 16:59: the Russian reporter Yuri Kotenok, who was targeted by Azeri drone and severely wounded while inside a church in Shushi, is still in Armenia. Doctors advised against airlifting him to Russia for now. He is feeling better after the surgery. https://news.am/arm/news/607547.html 17:14: Armenians held a demonstration in Luxemburg near the EU building. https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1031358.html 17:17: video showing the destruction if a few more Azeri drones. https://youtu.be/SlUdHlwEGrY 17:24: the European Parliament has received the report written by Artsakh Human Rights Ombudsman about Azerbaijan's crimes against Artsakh civilians in Sep-Oct. https://factor.am/294575.html 17:30 U.S. Congressman Tony Cardenas: We must immediately end security assistance to Azerbaijan and Secretary Pompeo must make it clear to Turkey that it cannot continue to fan the flames of violence. The U.S. leadership cannot be silent while the people of Nagorno-Karabakh suffer. https://twitter.com/RepCardenas/status/1315401322368294912?s=20 https://news.am/arm/news/607557.html 17:38: Chief conductor of the Berlin Symphony Orchestra Lior Shambadal expressed solidarity with Armenians. "I am proud of the Armenian spirit as you defend your beautiful country and wonderful culture." https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1031364.html 17:59: the list of the names of deceased soldiers has been updated since yesterday, to 525 confirmed. https://news.am/arm/news/607596.html , https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1031369.html 18:07: yesterday, several Israeli scientists wrote an open letter to their govt, asking to stop the weapon sales to Azerbaijan. Israel Charny, the executive director of the Institute on the Holocaust and Genocide in Jerusalem, believes most Israelis support Armenia. He called Erdogan a murderer who oppresses Kurds in Syria and has set his eye on Jerusalem. "President Reuven Rivlin supports the recognition of the Armenian Genocide, but as a president, he has fewer powers than when he was the speaker of the Parliament." https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1031371.html 18:08: the govt of Azerbaijan has launched a criminal case against the Russian WarGonzo journalist Semyon Pegov, who has been actively documenting the Azeri war crimes against civilian settlements in Artsakh. Pegov is charged with "illegal entry to Azerbaijan" (Azeris consider Artsakh their territory) and "making calls against the Azerbaijani state."
In other news, Russian authorities are investigating a Russia-based Azeri propagandist Saadat Guliyev. The latter publicly stated that he wishes for the aforementioned Russian reporter Semyon Pegov to die [from an Azeri bombardment] in Artsakh. "Armenian citizens should not shield the military reporter," he added. After that statement, prominent Russian TV hosts became furious and called for Russian authorities to launch a felony case against Saadat Guliyev, including for inciting ethnic hatred, which is a sensitive topic in Russia due to its ethnic diversity. The authorities are investigating and will decide whether to charge Guliyev. https://ria.ru/20201012/zhurnalist-1579403698.html https://factor.am/294592.html https://news.am/arm/news/607534.html 18:34: footage showing the aftermath of Armenian troops capturing possibly one of the hills near the northern Mrav mountains. Date unclear. Graphic: https://twitter.com/301_AD/status/1315662201286426625?s=20 https://t.me/infoteka24/8739 18:03 army spokesman: Azeri media outlets have claimed that their artillery shells "caused heavy damage on Armenian soldiers who were retreating towards Red Bazaar in the south". The Azeri propaganda machine, as usual, distorts the reality, trying to prove at all costs that they control Hadrut. It's a naked statement by Aliyev. The operation to blockade and destroy the Hadrut infiltrators continues. The operative situation is under the full control of our army. https://www.facebook.com/arcrun/posts/3429257187109865 19:13 Artsakh official: the heavy battles continue near Hadrut and in the south. Our army responds proportionately. https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1031375.html , https://t.me/reartsakheng/496 19:19: the Conservative party of Estonia, part of the ruling coalition, has urged Turkey to "stop sending the jihadists to Karabakh front." "We are concerned about the large-scale military aggression unleashed by the Republic of Azerbaijan against the Republic of Armenia and the Artsakh Republic on September 27. We call on the Azerbaijani authorities to immediately stop the bombing of civilian infrastructure." https://infocom.am/Article/38678 19:24: MoD of Russia and Turkey discussed the situation in Syria, Libya, and Artsakh. https://news.am/arm/news/607584.html 19:33 Armenian MFA: Turkey, being unable to achieve its goal, is actively preventing the establishment of the humanitarian ceasefire signed in Moscow. The army of Azerbaijan, being under the control of Turkey, continues the military actions and the attack on civilian settlements. https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1031377.html 19:35: watch out for fake GoFundMe pages. https://factor.am/294649.html 20:11: Armenian hackers stole $20,000 from a bank account that collects funds for the Azeri army, used it all on purchasing sex toys from Amazon, and wrote the Azerbaijani Government building address as the shipping address. https://t.me/reartsakheng/505 [link 404] 20:46: Turkish internet regulators have blocked several Armenian government websites in Turkey. https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1031388.html 20:57: the Armenian delegation to PACE has presented Azerbaijan's war crimes against Artsakh civilians and urged PACE member-states to recognize the independence of Artsakh. https://news.am/arm/news/607598.html 21:21: Belgian-Armenian musician Sevak Avanesyan gave a performance in Shushi's St. Ghazanchetsots church that was earlier bombed by Azerbaijan twice. https://youtu.be/0ejPlScu_uU https://t.me/infocomm/23088 21:32 Ombudsman: 31 civilians have died in Artsakh since the beginning of the war. https://t.me/infocomm/23089 22:00 army spokesman's briefing: Azeris refused to follow the ceasefire. Since its beginning, they launched an attack in 3-4 directions. A heavy weapon was used near Martakert. In this recent period, Azeris lost 1 jet, 3 drones, and 200 soldiers. Turkish air force helped the Azeris to conduct 36 flights, during which we downed an Azeri Su-25 jet near north-western Qarvachar (near Mrav mountain). This region is less intense than the south. Throughout the day, battles continued in the south. We stopped their advancement and pushed them back near Hadrut. The city is under our control. Azeris refuse to accept the ceasefire to exchange bodies because that would mean the introduction of international mediators (Red Cross), which they don't like. The north-eastern village of Talish is not "under Azeri control". Their forces are stationed on the Talish outskirts. The regrouping activities made by us in this northern section allowed them to publish videos from Talish. Once again, the positions can change quickly and I ask you again not to fixate on a specific location during a large war. Hadrut is completely under our control. There were, and maybe still are, certain Azeri groups on the outskirts. The drone attacks are still with the same intensify but the artillery is weaker now. We will win. https://www.facebook.com/watch/live/?v=2857021897850761
The Constitutional Court judge Arman Dilanyan has been elected by fellow judges as their new president. The previous nominee, Edgar Ghazaryan, had failed to secure 5 votes. https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1031363.html
Not Financial Advice (NFA) Warning: Wall of Text. If you hate reading just skim through the bolded/italicized Ever since I publicized my findings on DKNG, the stock has underperformed & probably has fucked a lot of people here, especially given the overly bullish stance back in June. Unless you took my advice & got into Puts then, congrats, welcome to tendie town. For the ADHD retards, here’s what the next wall of text is going to summarize: I believe at the current price of ~$30, the stock is oversold. A tech-focused, high-growth Company that has made sports betting easy to understand with an aesthetically pleasing interface similar to how Robinhood has neatly laid out stock market gimmicks so even high-schoolers can make sense of it I believe, is underpriced at these levels. Let’s get into some details as to why the stock has underperformed: First off, the news slate revolving sports with the rumored delay/cancellation of the MLB season & the NFL watching from the sidelines is in my view, just a part of why the stock has underperformed. We’ll revisit this later in this post, but I want to focus on the drivers of the stock’s recent underperformance, & why these factors are now in the rearview mirror. Part I – The Past Has Passed – SPAC-related Equity Dilution History lesson first: DKNG went public via a SPAC merger, which has exploded in popularity recently. Anyone serious about analyzing stocks going forward needs to do their homework on this, Google is your friend. A feature of most SPAC merger to public listings that creates a headwind to near-term share prices are embedded equity dilution events, usually in the form of earn-outs (stock bonuses to execs, the SPAC sponsor) & conversion of Warrants. On 5/24, the earn-outs were triggered, adding 6m shares to the share count. On 6/26, 16.3m warrants converted to DKNG, netting them ~$188m of cash. Stepping back a little, in addition to the above, on 6/18 DKNG launched a follow-on equity offering of 16M shares @ $40/Share [1], receiving $621M in proceeds. The last part is tricky to understand from a dilution perspective. To simplify, historically it’s almost a coin toss whether a Company’s shares outperform on the onset of an equity offering. While issuing shares does dilute the existing shareholder base, it theoretically shouldn’t, if the proceeds from the offering are earmarked for investments/projects that yield outsized returns. This is the reality for the long term, theory for the short-term. For the short-term, the ‘reality’ isn’t that the proceeds will be used for investments/projects that yield outsized returns, it is more about how convincing management is to investors that the investments they intend to pursue with the proceeds will outweigh the dilutive effects of issuing incremental shares. That’s a mouthful, but hopefully you get what I’m trying to convey. All of this stuff put together – the Company has increased its share count by ~39M, but now has a whopping ~$1.4Bn of cash [2]. More on this in the next section. Part II – MLB News Should Not Fucking Matter & DKNG Is Positioned As the Leading Online/Mobile Sports Platform DKNG should not be so tied to MLB news or any of this shit as the ongoing success of the NBA/NHL season + Soccer in Europe has effectively created a blueprint on how to regulate player behavior so that they maintain professionalism amidst the pandemic. I’m going out on a whim here, but I truly think the MLB threatening a cancellation of the season is pure posturing to get these fuckers to behave appropriately. Maybe a ‘bubble’ is what it takes to get these players to focus on their jobs instead of going out & contracting COVID, but I argue that isn’t necessarily required given Soccer in Europe. So there’s already a proven path here without the need for a bubble in Soccer, so MLB/NFL should be fine, and execs need to study how they got it done in Europe. Okay, back to some facts. Anecdotally, I’ve kept in touch with a handful of sports bookies from California to New York & even internationally about what they’re seeing – all of them say that since the NBA season started on 7/30 & since Soccer (especially the Premier League) resumed in June, along with other leagues like La Liga & Serie A, they’ve seen massive increases in betting. These numbers are also showing up in the official data [3]:
Average % increase in sports betting handle from April 2020 to June 2020 (handle is the total $ wagered in sports bets) from the states that reported up to June 2020 (NJ, PA, MS, RI, WV, IA, IN, NH) of +258%!
Note: NV is left out due to the site I sourced showing a weirdly negative number – so I dug into the official filings & show specifically, Sports Mobile betting growth from June since April has growing by at least +73% [4]
REMEMBER: This is for June only! No NBA, No NHL, No MLB, just Soccer, Golf, NASCAR & UFC. The data clearly shows that there was a ton of pent-up sports betting demand, which leads one Wall St. analyst to think that betting on the NBA/NHL could ABSORB the MLB’s sports betting handle (handle = total $ size of sports bet) [5]. Remember, the MLB season is still ongoing, with games being played. The entire focus is on the Miami Marlins & St. Louis Cardinals. Fucking retards. Additionally, I want to remind everyone that DraftKings.com is the #1 Fantasy sports website in the U.S. [6]. Also, since April 2020 site visitations are up +86% [7] & Google Search Trends for “Draft Kings” is up ~3xcompared to PRE-COVID levels [8]. What does this mean? They are piquing more people’s curiosity than prior to COVID/ongoing slate of sports. This is important because remember that ~$1.4Bn chest full of cash I mentioned DKNG had assembled earlier? Well, that money is being put to work & results are already coming in, which is exactly what DKNG intended to do with it. Part III – Legalization of Sports Betting in the U.S. I could write a fucking bible on this topic alone, but for now we’ll stick to some basics. Due to COVID, it’s easy to understand that each State’s financial situation is clearly in shit. Because of this, you better believe that these guys are going to start taking a hard look at how they can extract additional tax revenues, & what’s one of the easiest ways to do this? Legalization & taxation of gambling. The big players: CA, TX, FL & NY. First, CA pushing its legislation out to 2023 was fucked up, but here’s a twist I want to add to this: Anything that has to do with gambling in CA you better believe is lobbied against by not just the Tribal casino owners in CA, but by the deep pockets of Las Vegas money. Similar thing can be said for FL, but let’s take a look at some actions by LV/nationwide gambling companies that are starting to align financial incentives with guys like DKNG.
MGM / GVC Holdings JV in BetMGM - $450m total invested
PENN invests $163m into BS Sports
Caesars has a 20% stake in William Hill plus partnership deals with The Stars Group (TSG) & our winner DKNG for operating its sports books
So it’s safe to say going forward, nationwide legalization of sports betting will reap rewards for everyone involved, & no longer be something LV money is completely focused on safeguarding. Let’s also not forget that DKNG didn’t become the Company they are today because of their fancy app, but because their management team has a HISTORY of navigating the U.S.’s legal framework to get what they want out of it.
The Crown Jewel – The Internet Gambling Prohibition & Enforcement Act: I said it in a previous post, but I want to emphasize that them getting Fantasy Sports to be labeled a ‘game of skill’ by FEDERAL Law as opposed to gambling is just something for the history books. Fucking genius shit. When this happened I bet every casino from LV to every Indian Tribe that has one was against it, yet DKNG & other DFS providers won.
There’s more, but more recently: Getting into IL:
In IL, there’s an 18-month ‘penalty box’ for Companies that offer DFS to offer sports betting. Our guys at DKNG created a workaround to this situation with their partnership with Casino Queen [9]. DKNG being savvy again.
A quick look back at our core's old scouting reports
With all the talk about the draft I decided to go back and look through our big 3's scouting reports just to get an idea of how/why these guys fell so late in the draft despite turning out to be one of the best drafted cores of all time. I put together a couple quotes I found interesting for each person and tried to sum up the general vibe around their reports. Daymond Green 123
Played amazing in college, but has low upside
The Big-Ten Player of the Year, Green has a number of likeable qualities, but not one specific skill that a team may be seeking … He’s a low-risk/low-reward pick considering his role-player potential and ability to fit in
Will be a liability on defense due to his size and lack of athleticism (hilarious in retrospect)
On the defensive side of the ball though, Green will be somewhat of a liability, especially at the small forward position. Green lacks the athleticism and lateral agility it takes to defend NBA talent on the perimeter
Too small to play PF, not athletic enough to play SF.
weener, undersized for a physical forward yet lacks the athleticism of a wing … Lacks explosiveness, agility, elusiveness and quickness off the bounce
Great BBIQ, able to contribute right away.
Not only does he have an impressively high basketball I.Q., Green is also one of the most complete "big men" in the draft.
Makes his teammates play better.
With that being said, the one thing that Green will undoubtedly do during his rookie year is make those around him better players. That's the kind of player he was at Michigan State, and that will certainly translate into the NBA.
Great shooting, great off ball and around screens.
He moves exceptionally well off the ball, utilizes screens to perfection, and is automatic if given even an inch of space.
Weak and unathletic.
Just a hair over 200 pounds, Thompson will need to improve his strength as the years progress. He is somewhat limited athletically, which is often exposed on fast breaks.
Did great in college, but needs to find more ways to score.
One of the top 3 players in the Pac 10, Klay has a high skill level and has improved each year at WSU while being the focal point of the team since he arrived.... His ability to score at the rim will be far more challenging at the next level since his strength and athleticism will only be average. Needs to find other ways to score.
Bad off the dribble.
Lacks great foot speed which inhibits his ability to take the ball off the dribble against quick defenders
Smokes pot.
He also set off some red flags after receiving a one game suspension for marijuana possession
I know that this is stating the obvious, but Curry's game centers around his shot—which is as pure a stroke as I have ever seen. If you allow Curry to catch-and-shoot with his feet set and his shoulders square, he is automatic out to about 30 feet (literally).
Best scorer in the NCAA despite teams selling out to defend him
Best scorer in the NCAA so far at 31.9 PPG … Teams are completely focusing on him defensively, rotating different players at him, so he’s under pressure at all times and still finds a way to hit difficult shots every game
Great BBIQ, and ability to work off screens.
Curry has a great basketball IQ and truly understands how to run off screens and create space off the ball.
Poor size, strength, and athleticism.
Far below NBA standard in regard to explosivenes and athleticism … He doesn't have the size, the strength, or the lateral quickness/athleticism to defend shooting guards in the league.
Lack of explosiveness, size and slow first step will make him a poor finisher.
One of the bigger concerns about Curry's offensive game is that he does not project to become a prolific slasher at the NBA level. His first step is average at best, and considering his skinny frame and poor explosiveness around the basket in traffic … Not a great finisher around the basket due to his size and physical attributes.
Too small to play SG, too much of a shooter to run a team as PG.
At 6-2, he’s extremely small for the NBA shooting guard position. Although he’s playing point guard this year, he’s not a natural point guard that an NBA team can rely on to run a team
Low upside.
I remember Doug Gottlieb, who was a major draft analyst at the time, talking about how there were six other point guards in my class with a higher upside than I had.
Going through all of this, I think there are a lot of really interesting takeaways. First off, nearly all of our guys' big strengths were also big strengths for them in College, I'm actually a bit surprised by how much scouts got right with regard to their strengths. Shooting, off ball ability, being a glue guy, you can definitely see that these skills have been present with our guys for a long time. All of our guys also got big points for college success and high BBIQ, as well as points alluding their ability to play well as part of a team (Dray making his teammates better, Steph/Klay both scoring big points for off ball play and playing around screens). It also stands out just how much scouts hated all of our guys' physical stats. With all 3 dropping way down the list due to being undersized, unathletic, slow, or weak. Defensive projections for all 3 were pretty bad, largely based on their size/speed concerns. I'm also noticing that for Steph/Dray in particular scouts really hated that they didn't fit into a well defined role. Steph definitely lost marks for being somewhere between a PG/SG, and Dray lost points for being between a PF/SF. This one is a bit funny looking back, since this has turned into a big positive for them over the years, making the warriors adaptable enough to run diverse lineups that don't have a well defined 1-5. Also kind of funny that both Steph and Dray were listed as low upside picks. What do you guys think, anything big I missed? Edit: I also want to point out that these are just the public scouting reports since that's really all you can find online. Most of these quotes aren't from pro scouts. That said, considering where each of these guys went in the draft It's a safe bet that pro scouts shared some of these concerns. Edit #2: Also worth mentioning, all of these guys were a bit older than other prospects. Steph/Klay played in college for 3 years, and Dray played for 4, lowering their draft value.
Cheat-by-Mail. Months-Long Recounts. Riots. Endless Court Drama. The Democrats' 7-Step Strategy to Win the Election Using Vote-by-Mail Chaos
1. Never let a Covid crisis go to waste! Use the pandemic to push for a nation-wide vote-by-mail scheme. By now we’re all familiar with the inequities, even idiocies, of the Covid-19 lockdown rules. In many states and cities, it’s forbidden to have normal assembly for social gatherings, businesses, church services, and even hospital visits. On the other hand, it’s okay to have massive Black Lives Matter protests, Antifa riots, and anything else the left approves of, at least tacitly. Obviously, such unequal treatment is a formula for societal frustration, rage, and, yes, chaos. And what a friend the Democrats have in crisis and chaos! In fact, Democratic vice presidential candidate Kamala Harris has said that this sort of chaos is likely to continue—and should continue—through the election. “Everyone beware because they’re not going to stop,” Harris said about the (often violent) protests erupting in American cities. “They’re not going to stop before Election Day in November, and they’re not going to stop after Election Day.” But according to the Democrats, the only certainty in all of this chaos is that Americans—who are safe to take to the streets in mass protests and riots—are not safe to vote in person on November 3. We must vote by mail, they tell us. Mail-in voting is “essential from a health reason because we want to keep people at home to vote without having them all collect on Election Day,” House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said last month. “People should not have to choose between their health and their vote.” If you’re still scratching your head wondering why it’s safe to riot but not to vote, veteran political consultant Dick Morris explained the Democrats’ game plan: “If they feel they’re legitimately losing the election, [they] are going to use the excuse of the Covid virus—nobody can come out and vote in person, they claim … and they’re going to deliberately game the system by sending out millions and millions of mail-in ballots for people that don’t exist or have already voted.” “And the states will not verify the [mail-in ballot] signatures because they are under the control of Democrats,” Morris added. 2. Enlist all the messengers at your disposal (Hollywood, Corporate Media, Big Tech, Pro Sports) to push for vote-by-mail. The Democrats are using every tool in their considerable arsenal to push the vote-by-mail messaging, including multi-million-dollar super PAC ad campaigns. Former Democratic presidential candidate Sen. Amy Klobuchar has teamed up with failed gubernatorial candidate Stacey Abrams to mandate a national vote-by-mail system, and a group called Stop Republicans has launched a digital blitz to push for the idea. But the Democrats’ favorite tool is, of course, Hollywood and pop culture. As early as April, about a month into the coronavirus shutdown, the Hollywood wing of the Democrat-Media Complex kicked into high gear to push vote-by-mail. Actor Tom Hanks and his wife, Rita Wilson, who were among the first big name figures to contract Covid-19, teamed up with former First Lady Michelle Obama and former Obama White House senior advisor Valerie Jarrett in April for an ostensibly non-partisan virtual voter registration drive that encouraged states to loosen vote-by-mail requirements. 📷 Tom Hanks and Rita Wilson joined former First Lady Michelle Obama for a virtual get out the vote event on April 20, 2020, to encourage people to sign up for mail-in voting. (YouTube) In August, a group of A-list celebrities hosted a virtual “United to Save the Vote” gala—which they claimed was “fiercely nonpartisan”—to raise money to “protect the 2020 election” by, in part, increasing trust in mail-in voting. The virtual roster included Jennifer Lawrence, Jamie Foxx, Dave Matthews, Ed Helms, Jennifer Lopez, Alicia Keys, Sia, Jake Johnson, Sarah Silverman, Kenan Thompson, Chelsea Handler, Gloria Estefan, Randall Park, Erich Bergen, Nick Kroll, Sophia Bush, Jonathan Scott, Kenny G., George Lopez, etc. You get the picture. According to the event’s website, thesezealouslyanti-Trump “fiercely nonpartisan” celebs gathered virtually to counter the efforts of “politicians who are undermining the security and validity of mail-in voting.” Meanwhile, the Democrat-Media Complex is engaged in a bit of journalistic jujitsu churning out stories about how the Republicans are the ones who plan to steal the election. Here’s a headline from the Washington Post: “Republicans’ long-term vote heist matters more than Trump’s tantrums.” And here’s one from Rolling Stone: “The Plot Against America: The GOP’s Plan to Suppress the Vote and Sabotage the Election.” But it’s hard to top this headline from the Daily Beast: “This Is How Republicans Steal an Election, and Maybe Kill Some Dems in the Process.” At the same time, the Democrat-Media Complex is also celebrating the new wokeness of pro sports, which is busy helping Democrats win in November. On September 7, Politico asked, “Could LeBron James Defeat Donald Trump?” As has been widely reported, the National Basketball Association has agreed to set up a “social justice coalition” to help get out the (Democrat) vote. 3. Get millions of questionable mail-in ballots into the system. Here we might pause to note the distinction between the various kinds of voting by mail. It is true that absentee voting by mail has been with us for many years. Even President Trump has voted by mail, and our active duty military regularly votes by mail. In fact, Republicans have been quite successful in the past with absentee voting. In Florida in 2016, for example, more Republicans voted by mail than Democrats, and Trump carried the state. There is even legitimate concern that any disparagement of mail-in voting could unintentionally hurt Republicans in November because their voters like voting by absentee ballots. Indeed, there are sincere and legitimate reasons for why absentee voting should be available during the pandemic. However, there is a big difference between allowing absentee ballots as an option for people who are unable to make it to the polls and mandating that an entire election be done by mail-in voting. And there is a really big difference between the long-standing practice of sending absentee ballots to voters who take the initiative of requesting them and the new Democratic proposal to mail out unsolicited ballots (or applications for ballots) to every registered voter regardless of whether those voters are still alive or eligible to vote in that jurisdiction. And, as we shall explain, this new effort to mail out ballots to every registered voter is coupled with the left’s years-long fight to prevent these same voter rolls from being updated to remove dead and ineligible people from the lists. And to make matters extra complicated and chaotic, every state has a different standard for mail-in voting. Some states have more safeguards in place than others. For example, some states require that every mail-in ballot include a verifiable signature, additional witness or notary signatures, and even an enclosed copy of the voter’s photo ID. Some states have few, if any, such safeguards. Some states are loosening or experimenting with the rules for the first time due to the coronavirus pandemic. And then there is the issue of sending all these ballots through the mail. Can the U.S. Postal Service process them all in a timely manner? Every state has a different deadline for when these ballots need to be postmarked. What happens if they don’t arrive in time? Can election officials process them all in a timely manner? Counting mail-in ballots is much more time-consuming. It can involve matching signatures, checking postmarks, flattening out ballots that were crumpled in the mail, etc. If the recent primaries in Wisconsin and New York are anything to go by, mail-in ballots will take weeks to process and that process will be fraught with problems and potential for fraud. (To give you a flavor of the postal chaos to come, the chief clerk for Brooklyn’s Kings County Board of Elections testified in federal court last month that in 2018, the USPS delivered “several hundred absentee ballots from the previous November” — which was “five months after Election Day.” And in Wisconsin this week, three trays of mail, which included absentee ballots, were found in a ditch.) 📷 Election officials take receipt of a dolly loaded with mail-in ballots at election offices in downtown Pittsburgh, PA, on May 27, 2020. (AP Photo/Gene J. Puskar) There is also the issue of how voters can apply to vote by mail and who is eligible to do so. According to FiveThirtyEight, nine states and the District of Columbia will simply mail every registered citizen a ballot. In another 14 states, authorities will mail everyone an application to vote by mail. (Although, as we shall see, some states take a generous view of who, or what, might be eligible to receive such applications if outside interest groups decide to mail them out.) In 16 states, nothing is automatically mailed to voters, although voters can apply online to vote by mail. In six states, voting by mail is permissible only with a “valid excuse.” And the remaining states are some hybrid of the preceding categories. All of these different rules provide plenty of opportunity to game the system on questions ranging from the verification of identity, addresses, and signatures to the timeliness of postmarks and the ability of the postal service to deliver ballots in a timely manner. Because there are so many “moving parts” to the vote-by-mail process, mail-in ballots are fraught with the potential for fraud. Yes, we’ve seen voter fraud before, but we ain’t seen nothing yet. The further we get from requiring that voters go to the polls to vote in person, the more we expand the avenues for fraud. Consider, for example, the fraud potential that comes with mailing ballots to every registered voter. Back in 2012, a Pew Center study found that 1.8 million dead people were still registered to vote and that 24 million voter registrations were un-confirmable. Though some states have made progress in updating their voting rolls since the 2012 Pew study, a comprehensive analysis conducted this year by the Public Interest Legal Foundation (PILF) found that 349,773 apparently dead people still remain on the voter rolls across 41 states. And apparently the dead still vote! The report also discovered a surprising number of people who apparently voted more than once. The report found:
During the 2018 General Election, 37,889 likely duplicate registrants are apparently credited for casting two votes from the same address, and 34,000 registrants appear to have voted from non-residential addresses. Additionally, 6,718 registrants were apparently credited for voting after death.
According to the report, New York, Texas, Michigan, Florida, and California were the top five states with dead voters on the rolls, accounting for 51 percent of all the dead registrants. The crucial swing states of Michigan and Florida had 34,225 and 25,162 dead registrants respectively. That would seem to be a serious indictment of the system and a warning against mailing unsolicited mail-in ballots or even mail-in ballot applications to everyone on the voter rolls. But Democrats are working hard to bulldoze the path for vote-by mail, or, as Breitbart News often calls it, cheat-by-mail. Democratic governors in New York and Pennsylvania have already moved to ease vote-by-mail, as have local officials in Harris County, TX, population 4.7 million. Oh, and did we mention that in Nevada’s June primary, more than 223,000 ballots in Clark County (Las Vegas) went to a bum address? That means almost a fifth of all the ballots mailed out in the county went to a bum address. 📷 Election workers process mail-in ballots during a nearly all-mail primary election in Las Vegas, NV, on June 9, 2020. (AP Photo/John Locher) But, you might ask, why don’t we just make sure the voter rolls are accurate by removing people who have moved or died? Why don’t we have a standardized signature verification protocol and a requirement for an additional witness signature and photo ID for mail-in ballots to ensure they are legit? Good questions. The answer is the left fights these reforms. Left-wing groups want to expand access to voting by registering as many people as possible, but they also fight to block meaningful efforts to ensure that only eligible American citizens are voting. When Republicans enact legislation to encourage transparency and accuracy in our voting process by removing dead or ineligible voters from the rolls or mandating some form of identity verification, left-wing activists challenge these initiatives in court to stop any reform. Eric Eggers, the author of Fraud: How the Left Plans to Steal the Next Election, explained to Breitbart News how left-wing interest groups have fought for years to keep the loopholes that could potentially create a “tsunami of voter fraud” in November. “Organizations that are funded by George Soros both fight to keep those vulnerabilities in place, as in Ohio, by trying to prevent efforts to pass voter-ID laws or to make the voter rolls more secure,” Eggers said. “But then they also — and this is really the insidious part — they fund organizations that go out and round up voters, regardless of legality of their status, and force them through the vulnerabilities in the system.” “There are 248 counties in this country that have more registered voters than actual citizens of legal voting age,” Eggers said. “It’s a problem because it creates opportunity for organizations like the formerly known ACORN and La Raza — they’re all funded by [billionaire George] Soros — to go and figure out where the vulnerabilities are and force the voters — whether they’re legal or not — through the gaps.” But according to the establishment media, the instances of mail-in voter fraud are “infinitesimally small.” And to prove this, the media loves to quote the “non-partisan” Brennan Center for Justice. What the media fails to tell you is that the Soros-funded Brennan Center is leading the charge to expand mail-in voting. They don’t just have a dog in this fight — they have a whole kennel! Quoting the Brennan Center to deny the reality of mail-in voter fraud is like quoting Big Tobacco to deny that smoking causes cancer. And yet when Donald Trump or any Republican points out the obvious vulnerabilities in our voting system, the Democrat-Media Complex quotes biased sources to vilify Republicans. Nancy Pelosi actually called President Trump and Republicans “enemies of the state” for expressing concerns about vote-by-mail’s fraud potential. It seems fair to say that Democrats are making sure that the system works for them. Recently, Politico headlined a long piece, “Inside the Democratic Party’s plan to prevent vote-by-mail disaster,” detailing the efforts of the party, and its well-funded allies, to win the November mail war. A key part of that plan is legal challenges. For instance, in Georgia, the American Civil Liberties Union accused the state government of wrongfully purging nearly 200,000 voters from the rolls. In this legal battle, the ACLU is joined by the Palast Investigative Fund, one of the myriad “non-partisan” foundations that the Democrats always have at their side. Yet in the meantime, the ACLU has nothing to say when we discover, for example, that during the 2020 Michigan primaries, the number of ballots counted in 72 percent of Detroit’s absentee ballot precincts didn’t match the number of ballots cast. And the votes counted in 46 percent of all of Detroit’s precincts–both absentee and in-person–didn’t match the number of ballots tracked in the precinct poll books. For perspective on what such abnormalities might portend for the next election, we might observe that Detroit has a population of 670,000. In 2016, Donald Trump won Michigan by a mere 10,704 votes. Oh, and did we mention that a federal lawsuit filed last year alleged that the city of Detroit had over 2,500 dead people still registered on its voter rolls, and about 4,788 registered Detroit voters were flagged as having potentially registered to vote twice or even three times. But I’m sure none of those dead people will vote by mail, right? Oh, and while we’re on Michigan, we should also mention that Jocelyn Benson, Michigan’s Democratic Secretary of State who was endorsed by Joe Biden and was a featured speaker at the Democratic National Convention, misprinted the ballots that were created for Michigan voters serving in the military overseas. Guess which candidate was listed incorrectly? You guessed it: Trump! The bad ballots list the Libertarian Party’s vice presidential candidate as President Trump’s running mate instead of Mike Pence. But don’t worry. The spokesperson for Michigan’s Democratic-Biden-endorsed-DNC-speaking Secretary of State has assured us that clerks “will be instructed to duplicate a vote for Trump” for any military voter who mails in one of these misprinted ballots. 📷 Michigan Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson (D) speaking during the fourth night of the Democratic National Convention on Aug. 20, 2020. (DNC via AP) In the face of all this potentially embarrassing data, the Democrats have decided that the best defense is a good offense. For instance, Joe Biden stays on the offensive, regularly accusing President Trump of seeking to squelch vote-by-mail; but he never allows that vote-by-mail might need to be reformed. Biden charged on September 7 that Trump “wants to make sure those mail-in ballots don’t get where they’re supposed to get.” We might wonder: If Biden routinely accuses Trump of cheating, should we be surprised if Democratic activists get the hint and decide that they could, and should, cheat on Biden’s behalf? After all, they might rationalize these efforts as fighting fire with fire. Cheat-inclined Democrats might draw inspiration from an anonymous Democratic consultant in New Jersey who recently confessed to the New York Post that “fraud is more the rule than the exception.” The consultant explained the various ways in which political operatives can harvest mail-in ballots, change them by inserting different ballots into the envelope, use friendly postal workers to disappear ballots in neighborhoods that lean Republican, and so forth. A few hundred bogus ballots here and there can change an election. “An election that is swayed by 500 votes, 1,000 votes — it can make a difference,” the Democratic operative said. “It could be enough to flip states.” Indeed, even Democratic pets can make a difference—and they don’t even have to be alive! Recently in Atlanta, a family got a voter registration application in the mail for their deceased house cat named Cody. How did that happen, you ask? Well, outside third-party groups can rent mailing lists and randomly send everyone on the list an absentee-ballot application or voter registration application that they downloaded from the state’s election website. Have you ever used your pet’s name to subscribe to something because you didn’t want junk mail in your own name? If so, don’t be surprised if Fluffy or Spot gets a voter registration or absentee ballot application in the mail. Georgia’s election officials assure us that Cody the cat would not have been able to vote at the polls in the Peach State because the cat doesn’t have a license or state ID. But one wonders if he would be allowed to vote by mail, assuming his registration application cleared. And, of course, not every state requires a photo ID to vote like Georgia does. Speaking of Georgia, its Republican Secretary of State, Brad Raffensberger, announced on September 8 that his office had identified 150,000 Georgians who had applied for an absentee ballot and then showed up at the polls to vote in person in the June primary; that is, they wished to vote, carelessly or purposefully, for a second time. This in a primary in which a little less than 950,000 people voted; in other words, the attempted (or at least potentially attempted) double voting accounts for around a sixth of total ballots cast. Of these 150,000, Raffensberger added that perhaps 1,000 had actually succeeded in voting twice. Were these innocent mistakes? Simple confusion? Or guilty action? Whatever the truth about these would-be double voters and actual double voters, we should applaud Georgia authorities for minimizing what could have been a major electoral debacle; thanks to their good work, it was only a minor electoral debacle. In any case, the Georgia ACLU has nothing to say about that. Voter fraud exists even when you vote in person, but mail-in voting blows the doors wide open in fraud potential. And the Democrats are ready to fight for every ballot—pets and all! 4. Send Democratic lawyers into key districts to fight for every challenged ballot. Use the courts and progressive election officials to keep the count going as long as possible with as little verification as possible. As we have seen, each mailed-in ballot has the potential to foment a legal fight over its validity. In fact, the Washington Postreported on August 24, that more than 534,000 primary votes in 23 states have been rejected for one reason or another:
Democrats and voting rights groups are now waging court battles to ensure that absentee ballots are not discarded on technicalities, pushing to require that ballots postmarked by Election Day be counted and to make signature-matching laws more voter-friendly.
Meanwhile, in Indiana, a federal judge ruled that Hoosier election officials cannot reject ballots for dissimilar signatures without notifying the voter and giving him or her—aided, of course, by partisan pals—a chance to “cure” the ballot. In fact, 20 states allow a voter to attempt to cure a faulty ballot so that it can be counted. That might be a good idea, but we can see that each “cure” will take a lawyer, not a doctor. In fact, with such legal fights in mind, the Biden-Harris campaign has already built a SWAT team of 600 lawyers, expecting many more recruits to come. And just on September 14 came this headline, courtesy of the New York Times: “Biden Creates Legal War Room, Preparing for a Big Fight Over Voting.” According to the Times, two Democratic legal veterans–Dana Remus, who has served as Biden’s general counsel in the 2020 campaign, and Bob Bauer, a former Obama administration White House counsel–will co-head this legal effort. Others involved include former Obama attorney general Eric Holder and two former solicitors general in Democratic administrations, Donald B. Verrilli and Walter Dellinger. In all, the Times tells us that “hundreds of lawyers will be involved, including a team at the Democratic law firm Perkins Coie, led by Marc Elias.” The name Marc Elias might ring a bell because, as Breitbart News has reported, he was in the middle of the infamous fake-news Christopher Steele dossier, having retained the firm of Fusion GPS on behalf of the Democratic National Committee. And come to think of it, Bob Bauer, mentioned above, was also a longtime Perkins Coie lawyer, having been there, alongside Elias, during the 2016 presidential campaign and its Steele-y aftermath. Meanwhile, Kamala Harris herself is keeping up the drumbeat, warning Democrats of the many bad things Republicans are thought to be doing. “There will be many obstacles that people are intentionally placing in front of Americans’ ability to vote,” Harris said. “We have classic voter suppression. We have a president who is trying to convince the American people not to believe in the integrity of our election system and compromise their belief that their vote might actually count.” By “voter suppression,” she means any effort to make sure that only eligible living non-pet American citizens are voting in November. But while we’re on this topic, we should note that the Department of Justice announced this week that it’s investigating reports that nine military mail-in ballots were discarded in Pennsylvania. Seven of the ballots were cast for President Trump; the contents of the other two are unknown. Yes, it’s only nine ballots, but the campaign season is young, and there are lots of places where marked ballots can be discarded. And the crickets you hear is the sound of Democrats, normally so up-in-arms about vote suppression, now being oh-so-quiet about vote destruction. Democrats are armed and ready for a vote-by-mail total war. We can expect they will have a ground game in every district. Every disputed ballot will get its own Democratic lawyer. Every critical district and state will see litigation over signature-matches, addresses, postmarks, and anything else that might affect Democratic balloting. In fact, the Democrats’ legal team has already scored potentially game-changing court victories in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and North Carolina on how long ballots can be counted after Election Day. In Wisconsin, a federal judge ruled Monday that mail-in ballots can be counted up to six days after Election Day, and a ballot can be counted even if there is no “definitive” sign of a postmark on it. In Pennsylvania, the state’s Supreme Court ruled last week that mail-in ballots can be received up to three days after Election Day; and, similar to the Wisconsin ruling, these ballots can be counted even if there is no evidence that they were postmarked on time. (The Pennsylvania court handed the Democrats a second victory by keeping the Green Party candidate off the ballot, thereby preventing the Greens from peeling off any progressive voters. We note that the court didn’t grant the GOP a similar favor by kicking the Libertarian Party off the ballot.) The Pennsylvania Secretary of State also issued an order last week instructing clerks not to conduct signature matches on the mail-in ballots – which means that Pennsylvania essentially nullified signature verification because the state’s election officials won’t be verifying anything. In Michigan, a judge ruled that postmarked mail-in ballots can be accepted up to 14 days after Election Day, and third parties are allowed to deliver these ballots. This fraud-friendly delivery service is commonly known as “ballot harvest.” It’s all the rage in California and other third world countries. 📷 A ballot drop box in Detroit, MI, on Sept. 24, 2020. (AP Photo/Paul Sancya) In North Carolina, a coalition of Democrat-aligned special interest groups got the state to agree to accept mail-in ballots up to nine days after Election Day and to allow voters to “cure” any problems with these ballots. North Carolina election officials also agreed to create vote-by-mail ballot “drop-off” stations, which is essentially an invitation for “ballot harvesting.” You’ll notice that these are all swing states, and three of them – Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan – were the Rust Belt blue wall states that put Trump over the top in 2016. He won them by 22,748 (WI); 44,292 (PA), and 10,704 (MI) votes. And the Democrats are stopping at nothing to win them back. Of course, these court victories were concerned with when the mail-in ballot delivery window will close. Let’s not forget the question of when the in-person polls will close. It’s a safe bet that Democratic lawyers will argue—and even sue, as they have in the past—for extra hours in places where their voters might come straggling in late. After all, many protestors and rioters seem to be night people.
Going through old issues of the Wrestling Observer Newsletter and posting highlights in my own words. For anyone interested, I highly recommend signing up for the actual site at f4wonline and checking out the full archives. PREVIOUSLY:
We start with more on the death of Davey Boy Smith, including a full-length super long obituary, because apparently 2002 is nothing but people dying. I feel like I've done nothing but recap obituaries since starting back with 2002. Anyway. in the wake of Smith's death, the reaction has sadly not been one of surprise. Anyone who saw Smith in the last 4-5 years pretty much saw it coming. The cause of death, pending toxicology results, was ruled a heart attack caused from prolonged steroid use. But until the toxicology results are back, the belief among his friends and family is that there was probably more to it. Dave talks about the staggering number of wrestlers who have died under age 40 in recent years, with upwards of 20 of them being due to drug issues.
Smith died while on vacation with his girlfriend Andrea Hart, estranged wife of Bruce Hart. Despite that, Smith was actually on good terms with most of the Hart family, although Andrea is not. The Hart family believes Andrea knows more than she's letting on about the circumstances of his death, but she's not talking to anybody. Andrea's children (that she had with Bruce) were also there and they each apparently have different accounts of how he died (he was sleeping! he was in the pool! he was eating!) but they all pretty much agree he collapsed doing whatever he was doing. Andrea told the press that she believed Smith had overdosed, but Smith's dad did his own interviews and denied it, saying his son had stopped using drugs and was clean when he died. Needless to say, most people aren't buying that given his track record. Smith's father decided against having the body cremated and instead ordered it sent back to England for examination to make sure he wasn't murdered. "I cannot believe his death was natural," he said. "If they find drugs in his body, then he didn't put them there. Davey was clean." (Eeeeeeehhhhh....) Shit got even messier when Andrea and Smith's ex-wife Diana Hart each tried to claim the body. Despite her book (in which she accused Smith of drugging, abusing, and raping her), Diana played grieving widow in the media even though they're divorced. It may not have been an act though. Some in the family believe Smith and Diana were trying to reconcile, and they were on good terms at the time of his death. Andrea claimed to be his common-law wife, even though she's still legally married to Bruce. She later claimed Smith had proposed to her 2 weeks before his death and said they were engaged, which was the first anyone had heard about that. Smith's father claims in their last conversation, Davey Boy had told him he was planning to break up with Andrea after their vacation. So who knows. Anyway, both Diana and Andrea planned their own separate memorial services, while Smith's dad is planning his own 3rd service. Smith's body wasn't at either of the Hart family memorial services because, as mentioned, it was sent back to England where authorities are launching an investigation at the behest of Smith's father.
Andrea's service was said to be small and simple, just a few dozen people, and she seemed sincere in her sorrow. Diana's service was larger and more public, with hundreds of attendees and press, along with several WWE names. Vince McMahon, Hulk Hogan, Bret Hart (who attended both services), Chris Benoit, Chris Jericho, Jim Ross, and others all attended and several of them spoke. Diana's eulogy featured a professionally produced video featuring Davey Boy footage from WWE that had never aired on television before. She thanked Vince for trying to help Davey with his addiction issues. She never acknowledged everything she wrote about him in her book last year. Smith's children as well as Stampede wrestler TJ Wilson gave speeches as well. 16-year-old Harry Smith was composed and gave a great speech about teaming with his father in his last matches. And then Ellie Hart got up there and....it went about how you'd expect. She started ranting about Andrea and blaming her for not giving the family the answers they wanted and it started to turn into some drama, but the minister gently interrupted her and got things back on track. And finally, Bret Hart gave a speech, directly addressing Smith's children and saying that Davey Boy and Owen would want the children of all these Hart family members to get along with each other better than the adults have. From here, Dave gets into the actual meat of the obituary, recapping Smith's life and career. As always, an excellent read but very long to recap.
WWE Confidential, the new show the company is producing, aired its debut episode this week, focusing on the Montreal Screwjob. Dave once again talks about how Vince McMahon tried to downplay the incident recently, giving an interview just a couple of months ago calling the Screwjob a minor incident that almost no one cares about. Vince went so far as to say he could count on one hand the number of people who even still care about that old news. Turns out one of those must be Vince because this week, they dedicated the premiere of this new show to the story and highlighted it as the most controversial night in the history of wrestling. The hook of the show was Shawn Michaels revealing publicly, for the first time, that yes, he was in on the screwjob and knew about it in advance. Dave says this isn't really a secret. Shawn denied having any knowledge of it that night but as soon as the day after Survivor Series 97, he was bragging to friends about it. Vince McMahon also later confided in Undertaker that Shawn knew ahead of time. So it was kind of an open "secret" that Shawn knew but this is the first time he's admitted it publicly. Triple H still denies knowing about it ahead of time, but Dave is pretty skeptical there too (and indeed, it's later revealed that yes indeed, Triple H also knew). Dave thinks lots of people had to know. Even the guy who cued the music had to know, because Shawn's music was queued up and ready to play the second Vince ordered the bell to be rung. Pat Patterson always claimed not to know and Bret has said he wants to believe it, because he likes Pat, but the way Pat interrupted the match-planning conversation and specifically suggested the sharpshooter spot to them makes Bret question it (I think Patterson still denies it to this day, but I have my doubts there too). Anyway, the show recapped the history of the Screwjob and if you know Dave, you know he's about to poke a whole bunch of holes in WWE's revisionist bullshit. Here we go...
The story of the episode was WWF was close to going out of business due to the WCW war and couldn't afford Bret anymore, so Vince nobly allowed Hart out of his contract so he could negotiate a better deal with WCW. Actually, Dave says, Vince first talked to Bret about deferring some of his contract to later on but that was a couple months earlier. At the time, WWF really was having some financial struggles, but it's an exaggeration to say they were almost driven out of business. They were never even close. But regardless, that's irrelevant because in Sept. 97, they raised the price of PPVs by $10. That added revenue, which was nearly $1 million per month in pure profit, was easily enough to get them out of financial trouble. By the time Survivor Series 97 rolled around, WWF was doing just fine, money-wise, and were only a couple months away from catching fire and getting nuclear hot. So no, they did not need to get rid of Bret's contract. And in fact, in October, a couple weeks before Survivor Series, Vince changed his mind and asked Bret to stay, saying that the financial situation had turned around. But by this point, Hart's negotiations with WCW were full speed ahead and Vince allowed Hart to continue negotiating. But after talking to both sides, it was clear Vince had no real plan for Bret and he didn't really seem like he wanted to keep him, so Bret took the WCW deal and the rest is history. But of course, none of that is mentioned in this show. The episode also claimed Hart refused to drop the title to anyone (again, not true. Only Shawn. Bret even offered to lose it to Brooklyn Brawler if they wanted. In fact, Dave breaks down all the different scenarios that were presented here, and Bret was willing to lose the title to anyone other than Shawn, anywhere other than that show in Montreal, at any date before or after the PPV. They had actually presented Bret with dozens of different scenarios, all of which he agreed to, only for Vince to keep coming back around to Shawn at Survivor Series, which was the one and only thing Bret wouldn't budge on). They also tried to paint the picture that Bret could have taken the title to WCW the night after Survivor Series. In fact, Bret's WWF contract didn't end until Dec. 1st, and he was booked on more than a dozen house shows after Survivor Series and had even agreed to work the early December PPV because Bischoff had given his blessing. There was zero chance Bret was going to show up with the belt on Nitro. There was concern that Bischoff would go on Nitro the next day and announce he had signed Bret, and Dave says it's true that Bischoff certainly was planning to do that. But Bret had also asked Bischoff to hold off on the announcement and Bischoff had agreed. Vince knew about that too, but in recorded conversations with Bret (from the Wrestling With Shadows documentary), Vince didn't seem concerned since the word was already out and everyone knew Bret was leaving already. This just goes on and on. We all know the story already. Anyway, TL;DR - interesting show, but WWE's version of the story is bullshit. But we all knew that.
At the latest NJPW show, Antonio Inoki came out and cut a promo. He talked about being in attendance recently at the World Cup and said wrestling needs something like that. Inoki claimed he had put together a deal with WWE for a joint NJPW/WWE show to take place later in the year. Dave doesn't know if there's any truth to that story, but this is the first he's heard of it and he doesn't think it makes any sense for WWE so he's skeptical.
Usually in Japan, TV-Asahi airs the finals of NJPW's G1 Climax tournament live. But this year that may not happen, as they're looking at airing one of Inoki's MMA shows instead. This is a direct result of the terrible rating the recent Tokyo Dome show drew when it aired live. This company is struggling mightily lately.
Random news and notes: Inoki recently recruited a 23-year old Brazillian MMA fighter named Lyoto Machida to come to NJPW (he never really does anything in NJPW other than train at the dojo, but he had a long career in UFC and still fights for Bellator to this day). Dusty Rhodes is the new co-host of Turner South's Atlanta Braves pre-game show called "Hey The Braves Are Next!" Scott Hall will be working Insane Clown Posse's upcoming Gathering of the Juggalos event. Former WCW wrestler Evan Karagis recently filmed a role on the soap opera "Passions."
In the main event of FOX's Celebrity Boxing show, Chyna lost by decision to Joey Buttafuoco. Chyna's mystique of being a woman who only wants to compete with men got pretty much obliterated here, as the larger Buttafuoco manhandled her with ease for much of the match, which probably makes all those big tough wrestlers who sold for her feel kinda silly. But Buttafuoco came in as a hated heel to the audience and despite how she got pummeled, many people felt Buttafuoco was fighting dirty and cheating, so Chyna wasn't too hurt by it. She talked about wanting a rematch and Dave says if PRIDE really wants to break into the U.S. market, they could throw it onto one of their cards. Hey, this show did a really strong TV rating, maybe a rematch would be just the kind of freak-show attraction needed for PRIDE to get attention in the U.S. Nothing else they've tried has worked. Dave also suggests NWA-TNA could book it, but a worked wrestling match between the two probably wouldn't get as much media attention.
Big Dick Dudley's ex-wife, former ECW valet Elektra, did an interview talking about his death. She said he'd had stomach pains all week and couldn't urinate. But didn't go to the doctor because he didn't think it was a big deal. Then at one point he got up to go to the bathroom but collapsed on the floor and died there on the spot. Jeez. At the time of his death, he had lost over 100 pounds from his peak weight of 320 in ECW several years ago.
Vince Russo is going to be writing a book about his time in WWF. Due to legal reasons and the ongoing lawsuit, it won't include much about his WCW tenure (I think he's written a book or two, but I've never read them, so if anyone has any insight, feel free to share).
Shaun Assael's book "Sex, Lies, & Headlocks: The Real Story of Vince McMahon and the World Wrestling Federation" will be published next month and is getting strong early reviews. Dave has talked to several of the people who spoke with Assael for the book and some of them expect it to be good while others feel that Assael fell victim to the cons and charms of wrestlers who were working him. We shall see, says Dave.
The debut NWA-TNA PPV will feature some sort of tournament to crown a new NWA champion. Dan Severn is no longer the champion after not agreeing to work the show (he already had a prior MMA booking for that date in New Mexico). As a result, the NWA (which is now working with TNA) just stripped him of the belt, which is convenient because they didn't really want to use Severn anyway, so now they can do whatever they originally planned to do with the belt without having to book an excuse to get it off him. The Jarretts and this new promotion now have full control over both the NWA world and tag team titles.
Mike Tenay has been named the lead announcer for the new NWA-TNA promotion. They're also trying to get Lex Luger to appear for the debut show, but Dave thinks its unlikely since Luger is financially set for life and has shown no interest in doing any wrestling since WCW folded.
Jeff Jarrett had talks with Bret Hart about coming in to do a Team Canada gimmick. Latest Dave heard is that Hart isn't interested, but they may bring in some of the new generation of Harts for it. There's been talk of bringing in TJ Wilson, Harry Smith, and Teddy Hart as a new version of the group. Smith is still only 16 and it's way too early to put him on the national stage yet and in a lot of states, he wouldn't even legally be allowed to perform. Wilson is also a teenager, from a bad home who pretty much grew up as an honorary Hart member in the Hart household. And Teddy Hart is a natural in-ring performer who would already be in WWE if not for the fact that during his two training camp tryouts, he had behavioral incidents both times. But they're all talented and will likely be big stars in the future. Last time WWE was in Calgary, Vince McMahon personally requested to meet with all 3 of them for a private tryout, but it didn't amount to anything.
Little bit of a change in the WWF writing teams. Brian Gewertz is now the official head writer for Raw, while Paul Heyman is the lead writer for Smackdown. Stephanie McMahon will continue to oversee creative for both shows and, of course, Vince still has final say on everything. Dave expects this to result in Raw being a more comedic show while Smackdown will be the more serious in-ring product (pretty much, yeah. And thus, we have the official beginning of Heyman-era Smackdown and soon we'll see the birth of the Smackdown Six).
Notes from Raw: show opened with Chris Benoit making his unannounced return to a huge pop. Dave still expects Benoit to eventually be managed by Arn Anderson, which has been the plan for months (and never happens). That was actually the original plan before the NWO was brought in. If Benoit was healthy in time (which, turned out he wasn't so it didn't matter anyway), the original idea was Benoit vs. Austin at Wrestlemania 18 with Anderson managing Benoit. But that obviously all changed. Anyway, what else? Dave once again mentions that Jeff Hardy looks physically awful. He seems to know about Hardy's drug issues and seems to be hinting about it without saying it. Tommy Dreamer continued his gross gimmick by drinking Undertaker's tobacco spit. Lesnar beat Bubba Ray Dudley but had to sell a ton in the match and Dave doesn't get it. For a guy that they so clearly want to turn into a Goldberg-like star, selling for midcarders every week isn't how Goldberg got over. Jim Ross went on and on about how Lesnar has never been pinned, which Dave says is an insult to all the fans who have seen Lesnar do jobs at house shows. RVD beat Eddie Guerrero in a 20+ minute ladder match and Dave says it's the longest match on Raw in at least a year. Dave gives it 4 stars and considering how messy and sloppy it was, that shows you how good it was. Lots of dangerous spots, some botched moves, and most notably a moment when a fan ran into the ring and knocked over the ladder while Eddie was climbing up. Eddie and Earl Hebner started stomping the fan until security dragged him out. Still an awesome match though. And finally, Benoit returned at the end of the show and turned heel on Austin. Dave says Benoit actually isn't ready yet and isn't supposed to be back in the ring until July, but the company is so desperate for anything to give them a shot in the arm that they may have pulled the trigger on this angle early.
Notes from Smackdown: the only thing Dave talks about is the Hulk Hogan retirement angle they did and he's got mixed feelings on it. First the positive: he gives Hogan credit for being an absolutely incredible performer when the heat is on. And Hogan gave a tremendous performance in this and Dave doesn't let it go unrecognized. But then the negative: in the promo, Hogan talked at length about when his dad was dying, he was basically expressionless except for Monday and Thursday nights when he'd watch WWF and his face would light up. So Hogan said his dad's last words were he wanted to see his son return to the WWF. So that's all sweet and nice, right? Weeeeeell....Hogan has told a different version of this story in the past. In previous interviews, Hogan said his dad was disgusted by what wrestling had become and he wanted Hogan to "clean it up." The idea that he was laying in the hospital and only coming to life when his beloved WWF was on doesn't exactly jibe with what Hogan has said before. And no matter what the truth is, Dave is uncomfortable Hogan using his dead dad as a way to get this storyline over, but hey, he ain't the first and won't be the last.
WWE's first show in Hawaii in probably 15 years is scheduled for later this month. Rock is scheduled to work the show and tickets sold out 2 hours after they went on sale. While we're at it, the Australia show in August also sold out the 47,000-seat Colonial Stadium in Melbourne in only 4 days. Once they scale the stadium for production, they plan to open up more seats.
It's "basically a sure thing" that Hogan vs. Vince McMahon will be one of the top matches at Summerslam. How they get there seems to change weekly. There's been talks of having Hogan take time off after King of the Ring and return for the Vince match at Summerslam. There's also been talk of him sticking around through the entire summer. So who knows? (Ended up being a mixture of both: Hogan stuck around the entire summer, but then he did an angle to get written off TV right before Summerslam. And he didn't come back until early 2003. And, of course, we got the Hogan/Vince match at Wrestlemania)
More info on the incident from a couple weeks ago where Kevin Nash and X-Pac reportedly threw a fit and got the script changed. They were told by writer Ed Koskey what the plans were for them on the show. Nash and X-Pac didn't like it, especially X-Pac since it involved him doing 2 jobs during the same show. X-Pac said he was quitting and told Nash he'd meet him in the car. Nash told Shane McMahon he'd go calm X-Pac down and straighten everything out. Nash and X-Pac came back, had meetings with Shane and Jim Ross, and then later with Koskey and Brian Gewertz (who wrote the show). They managed to convince the writers to change it more to their liking. Nash was also upset about how Ric Flair went on TV and said he'd fired Scott Hall. Nash didn't like the idea of Flair on TV being able to hire and fire people from their NWO, because that kinda takes away from the idea of the NWO as an autonomous, outsider group that doesn't play by WWE's rules. So that's why Nash was able to go out on TV on this night and cut the promo about how Flair doesn't control the NWO. Of course, Hall is still gone, so I guess he still does. Anyway, both Nash and X-Pac were pissed over all this and caused a scene, especially X-Pac, to the point others in the locker room wondered why they weren't disciplined instead of being given their way. But if you wonder that, you clearly ain't been paying attention to Nash over the years. Anyway, X-Pac still did the job in the Hardyz match, but not in the second match.
Random news: house shows in Alexandria and Baton Rouge, LA were both canceled this weekend due to low ticket sales. Shit's selling out in record time in Australia and Hawaii, but they can't give tickets away in Louisiana apparently. Undertakers hips were both banged up after the Hogan match at the PPV but he continued working, although he was limited (and years later, he'd have to get major surgery on both those hips). At Raw in Edmonton, Ric Flair was getting huge pops and "woo!" chants for him before the show started, so they filmed a backstage segment where he told Arn Anderson how much he hates Edmonton so they would boo him when he came out live. Lance Cade won the HWA title from Johnny the Bull down in developmental. WWF was pushing the city of Edmonton to present Benoit with the key to the city on Raw, but Edmonton wasn't so keen on the idea. And finally, during a bikini contest at the house show in Winnipeg, Ivory's top got pulled down, exposing her boob, much to the delight of many in the crowd.
Remember how MTV's The Osbournes was the only show routinely beating Raw in the cable ratings? That's changing. The Osbournes is over for the season, but this week, Raw fell to #4 behind the Lakers/Spurs NBA playoff game and 2 different episodes of SpongeBob. Patrick's a draw, brother.
Raven has been doing commentary on Sunday Night Heat, but he recently asked to be removed from it because he feels like it hurts his wrestling character. Dave thinks this is pretty risky. Raven as a wrestler is probably nearing the end of his shelf-life and lord knows WWE hasn't shown any desire to push him. And he was actually pretty fantastic at commentary. So giving up a safe job that he was excelling at for one that WWE doesn't really seem to see any value in him for seems like a good way to find yourself on the chopping block next time they decide to get rid of some people (yup, he'll be gone from the company in another 7 months or so). For what it's worth though, this isn't the first time Raven has been in this situation. Back in the 90s, he was a manager and commentator in WWF then too, under the name Johnny Polo. But when they weren't interested in using him as a wrestler, he quit the company and reinvented himself in ECW as Raven. Sometimes you gotta bet on yourself.
Jim Ross has a weekly WWE.com article where he usually just shares all the latest injuries everyone has. This leads Dave on a bit of a tangent when Ross wrote about how Triple H has a fractured patella. The injury was diagnosed by Dr. James Andrews in Birmingham and Andrews told Triple H to be careful with it, but he could continue wrestling as long as he can take the pain. Basically one of the world's top sports doctors saying, "Yeah you've got a broken knee, but throw some dirt on it, you'll be fine." It's no wonder so many of these guys end up on pain pills rather than getting the medical treatment they need.
Also in his article, Jim Ross admitted that the WWE is not doing a good job lately of providing a product the fans want to see. Dave thinks that's just about as strong a statement he's heard on the current state of WWE from someone so high up within the company. Ross admitted they need to create new rivalries, elevate new young talent, and effectively introduce new stars. However, Ross also blamed the economy and the abnormally high number of injuries everyone is dealing with right now for part of the problems too. Dave says the economy may play a small role in the declining live event and PPV numbers, but usually when the economy is in the toilet, TV ratings go up because people are staying home more. Not the case here. Injuries, yes that's a problem for sure. But the core of all WWE's problems right now comes down to the simple fact that the show pretty much sucks. And at least someone high up in the office seems to finally be publicly admitting it.
Tough Enough 2 is down to the final four. Dave talks about how Jackie Gayda is now the sentimental favorite because she tore her ACL during the show but has still refused to quit, which opened a lot of eyes on her. Speaking of Tough Enough, in a WCW-like comedy of errors, they aired a promo for next week's episode before the current episode was finished, thus spoiling who the final 4 were going to be, before it was revealed on the show people were watching.
The WWF Forceable Entry album has sold around 364,000 copies total since its release. But it's actually considered a pretty huge failure because WWF had to pay so much money in fees and up front advances to the various artists on the album, and they're nowhere close to recouping that cost. (The album eventually sells over 500,000 and goes gold but still a flop).
NEXT WEDNESDAY:A look at the dismal state of WWE in 2002, Tough Enough II finale, Riki Choshu's departure from NJPW, Dave reviews several new wrestling books, and more...
MAC has been on fire in the NBA and today will be no different! The line on the Rockets OKC game dropped from 221 to 219.5 as soon as it opened, and sharps say it may drop lower before tip off. MAC's Mid West Consensus Club declared a soft line and are looking for a easy cover. The public money is moving on the under and sharps are anticipating a high scoring game as they're jumping on the over! Watch James Harden break down the defense of Oklahoma City Thunder guard Luguentz Dort , this guy has had his day and now it's time to light up the score board. Harden said. "I think throughout the course of the game we just made too many mental mistakes and gave them opportunities to score," - "And it's that simple." MAC is expecting the X-Factor to be 2 teams cleaning up from behind the arc.
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Further analysis has come in from the debate, and it is now obvious that Biden had an earpiece and was being helped. There are photos of the wires in his shirt and sleeve. When he was given his first question, he touched his ear and said "Good luck" repeating what the person coaching him said into his ear piece. (Totally avoided on the MSM). Chris Wallace has become famous for all the wrong reasons. Look at this page devoted just to Wallace memes. The media is still BEGGING Touchy Joe to cancel all future debates. The Trump team released a list of the 33 lies Touchy Joe stated during the debate. Are the lib voters stupid enough to believe all the lies? Unfortunately, the answer is probably yes. Meanwhile, at his post debate "rally" he was confused by a train, then the sign on his podium fell off. You can't make this stuff up. Feeble beyond belief. Trump on the other hand was campaigning in MN yesterday, and when he mentioned Omar and her voter fraud, the crowd started chanting "Lock her up". Time for an aside. Trump has heard at EVERY rally for four years the chant "Lock "X" up". He HAS to know we DEMAND genuine justice for treason, fraud, EVERYTHING! I still believe it is all coming post his victory, but the chance they manage to steal the election looms large. By the way, he is campaigning in MN, the only state that didn't vote for Reagan. That tells us he is absolutely certain he has all the swing states secured. I mean CERTAIN. We are a month out. This is the time you abandon states you won't win, and throw every last resource you have at the swing states. Trump is campaigning in uber liberal states almost exclusively now meaning he wants to have a Reagan like landslide, and he must feel very confident about his ability to counter the liberal attempt to steal the election. Mind you, that IS the game plan. 80 Soros funded organizations have aligned to ensure that Trump will "step down" after they steal the election. In Philadelphia, the laptop and memory sticks used to program the voting machines went missing. Want to bet they are found pre-programmed with a million votes for Biden? In NYC, 100,000 ballots were found to have errors. Going back to my point from yesterday. I know that reading about the rampant and open level of fraud we are already seeing is stress inducing. However, look at Trump. Sure he posts tweets highlighting all this, but he has an aura of absolute confidence. Do you think we are aware of this stuff and he isn't? No chance. He knows about MORE fraud than even we do. His confidence tells me he knows he will overcome and counter all of this. Fortunately, FEDERAL judges keep ruling against local liberal judges who think they are allowed to change election laws with a ruling. The federal judges are reminding them the law cannot be changed by a dude in a robe on a power trip. Only the legislative branch can change the law. The most recent ruling affected North Carolina. The liberal desperation keeps growing. Now Crying Schumer said he wants to add DC and Puerto Rico as states so they can get more electoral votes. Won't happen. The AP circulated a memo to members to tell the media how to downplay liberal violence. Riots are now to be called "unrest" because it is a less "emotional" term. Remember my common theme? Liberals are ruled exclusively by emotion. They admitted as much. Lets focus on the media for a second. Fakebook has agreed to ban ads critical of voter fraud and anything discussing the election results after receiving an angry letter from the Biden team. Think about that. Zuckerberg lied to Congress, and has been threatened by the president of the US, but follows the demands of a guy who will be forgotten to history in two months. The former CEO of Twitter said that the people he disagrees with should be lined up and shot. Clear violation of Twitter policy, but of course it is untouched. Note the mindset. KILL the opposition, True evil. That brings us to RUMOR number one. Q suggested a LONG time ago they were working to create their own news network. One of our fellow readers must have seen some the same stories I have in that people think Trump will announce the new network a few weeks from now just as all the promised tech censorship goes into over drive. If this is true, that would be game changing for many reasons. The most obvious is he would have a platform to deliver his an unfiltered message 24/7. The second is the timing. Not only is it perfect for the election, but ANY new network would draw curious viewers, and this would draw in a billion people almost over night. Imagine having it preloaded with all sorts of short video clips discussing every topic under the sun. Is this a pipe dream? Odds are the answer is yes. However, we have hints. Trump for the past two months has been attacking Fox news, and just yesterday said he was so disappointed with Fox that he was almost done with them. They don't have time to legislatively counter the tech media censorship, and I find it very hard to believe Trump will accept being silenced at one of the most crucial times of his life. Why would Q mention this years ago? Because it would take years to create. Keep your fingers crossed. Imagine the liberal heads exploding over that. It would be glorious. It would also be a disaster for the deep state. How many news items do I mention every day that I say got NO media coverage? One or more per day. Yesterday it was the 50,000 person prayer group in DC. The other area that is consistently going unreported are UkraineGate, ObamaGate, PedoGate, SpyGate, etc. This is starting to explode, and is not getting the coverage it needs. Communist Comey testified before Congress yesterday. The point of this wasn't for him to expose his guilt. We all knew he would lie and deny. That is what he did, but now his answers are on record so when documents come out to the contrary, he is in even more trouble. His most common response to questions was to say, "I don't remember". Let's pause there. He was the HEAD of the FBI. He authorized a spy campaign on the president of the USA, something never done before in US history with the consequences being enormous no matter which way it went. Either they over throw Trump which would be gargantuan, or they all get captured as traitors. But he doesn't remember. Just another case. You know, just like them investigating jay walking and parking tickets. On the same level. Ted Cruz said that he is either the most criminally corrupt or completely incompetent person in the history of the FBI, and he didn't believe he was incompetent. He said that his legacy would be the destruction of the reputation of the FBI that no one trusts any more. Why would we? They are STILL criminal. They wouldn't investigate the Omar voter fraud from last week. But yeah, the head of the FBI doesn't remember an int'l spy ring trying to take down the sitting president. This guy had better get the gallows. Little else would be true justice. In case you think they aren't scared to death, look at what is happening in the Ukraine right now. A gas company said in COURT they bribed Biden with at least $900,000. NO media coverage. Like I said, at least once a day. It gets worse. A woman working in the US embassy in the Ukraine was just murdered, right as the Ukraine info is getting declassified. Coincidence? There is no such thing. We also learned that the head of the CIA herself, Gina Haspell (my nickname for her is rated M and based on her first name) is blocking the release of declassified documents. This is why things have taken so long to come to light. She is guilty, knows it, and is covering up her own guilt. She should have been removed long ago. Misc items. In the process of calling Trump names, Biden slandered the kid who shot three Pantifa thugs in self defense. His super attorney, Lin Wood announced they are suing Biden for libel, and they are already suing FakeBook. This kid will be an American hero and millionaire when it's all done. Touchy Joe said Pantifa was an idea. Trump said ideas don't burn down businesses. True. Ideas also don't have web pages that STILL take you directly to Biden's web page. Ideas don't have their own flag and meet with ISIS in Syria. Oklahoma is charging these thugs with terrorism, and the DA said, "This isn't Seattle". Awesome. On the sports front, the NFL is threatening teams with lost draft picks if their coaches keep taking off their masks. The league is just one big virtue signal lost cause. The woke NBA is currently playing their finals, and ratings are down 39%. Trump just announced and emergency order concerning rare earth elements. China has bought 98% of the REE mines throughout the world. However, the single biggest mine is in the US and hasn't been mined in decades. This will open it back up, and Alaska is loaded in REE. Those are needed for our high tech military weapons. Trump keeps putting America first. Mexifornia announced a task force to look into reparations for slavery. Mexifornia was formed AFTER the Civil War and after slavery was banned. What they are doing is announcing they are looking into paying blacks who no longer vote democrat to go back to their old ways. Here's a fun fact, all of the top ten cities with the highest murder rates are run by libs, as are 18 0f the top 20. Do you remember the study showing masks decrease blood oxygen levels by 17%? That study was done on a super fit athlete after two minutes of light activity. That figure would be MUCH worse in our typical out of shape obese citizenship. Dwayne the Rock Johnson has always been politically neutral in public, but has gone full retard, and he is getting blasted for it. The guy who starred in a Saturday Night Live skit as a child molesting robot, and who has said he "eats kids" (adrenochrome) probably has his name on a flight log to Pedo Island. That brings us to rumor number two. Do you remember the awesome Bush funeral when the wives of The Fuhrer (nickname for Obama), Jeb, Gore, Pence and Hillarnazi received a surprise envelope that SHOCKED them? Supposedly the message was from dear dead dad and said "They KNQW everything. I'm sorry". Note the spelling with the Q. The final rumor is just in, and is in this video. This guy seems very authoritative and actually lists a TON of sources. He says the Pope, Petrus Romanoff, had a child with the president of Argentina that they sacrificed to Satan. He said the Pope has been removed and this will be official in February, Tuck that away. Q stuff, Q posted the fact that the corrupt US attorney of the SDNY was replaced by Comey's son in law. A handful of people are holding the country hostage, He also noted that Comey's daughter was in charge of investigating the Epstein suicide, and her husband in on the Ghiselain Maxwell case. He just posted a few minutes ago, and get this. The moderator for the next debate was an intern for Biden. Q also lamented what America would look like if CV-19 wasn't released. The economy, the rallies, reason for mail in voting, etc. Trump could reverse this by ordering everything is opened up, and lets not forget that HE put Fascist Fauxci in place, not Biden. Images: Hillarnazi, arson, Ruthless, debate, an idea, two visions, AOC, 2020, debate, Wallace, the PedoRock, simple, FBI, Wallace, morons (Edit: I’ll work on getting his links included available, I just don’t know how yet. There is another labeled “TGIF” that just came in this afternoon. If you find this intel helpful/insightful please join this sub to make sure you don’t miss the next update(s).
A Few Basketball Betting Strategies (written by a 20+ yr gambling industry vet)
\A few basketball betting strategies* from an excerpt of a betting lesson I wrote last week\* We are in the heart of basketball season so I wanted to make this lesson useful for right now so you can start applying it to help you win money. I’ve listed below some simple situational spots to look for that are proven long term as profitable positions. As always these systems shouldn’t be used as the only factor when forming an opinion on a game but let’s say you like a bet and realize it fits one of these strategies well then you’ll be onto something. Just don’t make it your start and end point. Oddsmakers tend to not cross a certain barrier when making totals. For example, let’s say they have two very high scoring teams playing each other and their calculations lead them to a likely probability that there will be 260 points scored on a game. Well they can’t exactly make the total 260 because that would be outside the norm and might automatically create blind under action just because of how abnormally high the total is. Working off this theory we have a system: Betting OVERS on High Totals, simple but effective and has been something I’ve been looking at on a nightly basis this year with the increase in scoring, 3pt shooting and pace. Of course there are exceptions to the rule and other factors have to align. Definitely not saying to go out and bet every over when you see a high total. Systems and theories similar to this will be the topic of this week's lesson
The Blowout System
When an NBA team wins by 15 or more points, you might think that they’ve got momentum and will win their next game by double-digits as well. However, the opposite is usually true. When you see a home favorite of ten points or more who are fresh off of 15-point win they only beat the spread just 41.9% of the time from 2015 to 2018. So keep in mind, teams that blowout their opponents one game are unlikely to do so the following night. The reason could be a result of player fatigue or over confidence or more likely that oddsmakers and public bettors are overreacting to that impressive one game blowout and inflating the line on that team, creating value on the opposing team.
The Bounce Back System
This one is the flip side of the situation above but related to the total. Teams coming off poor offensive performances have a knack for bouncing back during their next game, particularly when it’s at home game. Teams coming off a poor offensive performance (defined poor below) found that their next games surpassed the projected point total nearly 62% of the time(on average, varies a little from NBA/CBB). ▪️~ Look for good teams that shot under 40% from the field in their previous game and then bet the over on their next home game. ▪️~ Look for any team that shot below their season average from the field and 3pt range and look over the total in their next game ▪️~ Look for teams that in their previous game shot poorly and the game still went over and look for the over in their next game.
The 3 in 4 System
The NBA has gone out of its way to reduce the number of back-to-back games in recent years, but we still see back 2 backs and teams playing 3 games in 4 nights. A really good spot is when we see both teams playing their third game in four nights. Under this scenario we see the teams go over the projected point total 58.8% of the time. The most likely explanation is that defense takes far more effort than offense, and most players play D with far less intensity when they’re tired. Whatever the case, you’d be well advised to pick the “over” when this scenario presents itself on the schedule. Of course this situation is something oddsmakers are aware of but it’s important we are also equipped with knowing it as well so we can apply it to our research.
Back-to-Back System
Along the line of the system above, we all know that NBA teams struggle to win the second game of back-to-backs, but they don’t all struggle at the same rate. Since 2016 teams playing in back 2 back spots that have winning records lost 5% more than their average on the second night of a back-to-back, while teams with losing records lost 11% more often than usual on the second night of a back-to-back. Going a step further and looking at home and away plays a huge factor in a team’s performance. Teams playing the second game of a back-to-back on the road were 18% more likely to lose. These are invaluable insights to consider when making your next bet. You may also want to consider a team’s average age, its pace of play, and whether the team has had to adjust to multiple time zones during its latest stretch of games. All of these factors can cause a tremendous drop off from one game to the next.
The D’Alembert System
This is a money management system similar to the more popular Martingale systems (If you aren’t familiar with the Martingale system you can google it) but I prefer The D’Alembert System much more as another progressive betting strategy that definitely is similar to the Martingale System. I prefer it more mainly because it carries much less financial risk due to its more conservative nature. When using this strategy, you select a bet amount and increase it by the same increment in the event you lose, and decrease it by the same increment in the event you win. For example, let’s say that you determine your bet amount is going to be $10. Using this sum as your starting point, you bet $10 on the outcome of a game. If you lose, you bet $20 the next night on the outcome of another game. If you lose again, you bet $30 on the following game. If you win that game, then you go back to a $20 bet on the next game, and so on. The D’Alembert System is generally less lucrative than the Martingale System, but it appeals to betters with smaller bankrolls who are more risk-averse and in my opinion is generally more applicable for bettors here in The Betting Network. When using these types of progressive money management strategies I encourage discipline on bet volume, quality over quantity. It can get dangerous when trying to apply this over several wagers a night, it’s more of a selective bet strategy rather than something you use for every bet made, maybe use it for just your strongest bet of the night. I know this information can help some gamblers out there (and may go over some gamblers' heads). It's just a few basketball systems that you may want to keep in mind. It can be very effective for long term profit in NBA when applied correctly. I’ve worked in this gambling industry for 20+ years and work in a sportsbetting community. If you’re interested in joining and learning more strategies like this. Don’t hesitate to message me. Cheers 🍻
The real question coaches/AD's/presidents need to ask themselves when considering the viability of this fall's CFB season.
The “Business as usual” mentality during a global pandemic that has clearly shown itself to be harder to contain than previously thought here in the US has been generating a quiet rage inside me as I’ve had to endure each successive take about how the 2020 season should continue on as if nothing is going on. The hypocritical “Think about the players and their desire to play” justification that some talking heads have been using to drive this narrative is ludicrous and unless that ideology also contains player unionization, bubble blueprints for the players on each campus, and comprehensive risk mitigation plans… I don’t see how one who tugs at the heartstrings of the sports population on national tv/radio by pandering to the lowest hanging fruit of “Seniors losing their last season” can sleep at night. Wait until one of said senior’s previously unknown heart conditions or other underlying illness leads to them losing their very public battle with COVID-19 in the national media’s spotlight after they contracted the illness from a teammate in the locker room or a classmate in the lecture hall… Anyone remember Terry Schiavo and how that whole media shitshow played out? Spoiler alert; it wasn’t fucking pretty. Having to visit someone in the ICU who is relying solely on a tube down their throat to live while tears stream down their face because they can only communicate by struggling to lift their fingers to point to large letters on a fucking tray a nurse holds for them is not an enjoyable experience for anyone. Especially when you were running track & field with them the week prior. You can bet your ass that if this situation plays out in front of a camera for all to see, the national media will 180 on a pinhead so quickly the guillotines will arrive before you even have a chance to blink. There will be no shortage of anyone and everyone using a situation like that to push their own narratives and agendas. Not to mention the blame game that will ensue, legal proceedings, insurance payouts to families…. Who the fuck would ever want to come close to chancing a situation like that… All for what? Because Saban is worried that spring ball will be "Too JV"? You fucking serious? A season where ⅗ of the P5 conferences get to scrimmage modified schedules with ever fluctuating roster sizes due to lapses in judgements from young adults leading to imposed quarantines that will have them out for 2 weeks so Dr. Pepper can slap their name on a “National*” trophy Phil Swift/Flex Seal style and hand it to a team that’s too proud or ego-driven to realize the objective reality of what is currently taking place on a global level? Might as well just add the body count of everyone who has died from this disease with the completely self-aware “Honoring those who fought” caption next to it ffs. I know, “But look at what the NBA/NHL/NASCAUFC have all been able to accomplish! We can do what they did!” Sure can bud, except that they’re all professionals. And they all get paid. And they all have player unions to speak and leverage on their behalf. And they all have plans in place to mitigate risk and are able to broadly apply those rules over the entirety of their league/promotion/series. And they don’t have to share a campus with people who also do this on the holidays. I’d love to see “Ed O’s Guide to the college football season during the COVID-19 outbreak” in paperback. Something tells me he’d manage to unironically choose “42” as his number for any examples. And that’s my point in all of this… we’re seeking answers to a bad situation that we can’t even seem to ask the single most important question on. Every single coach, AD, president, etc. who has any input whatsoever on whether or not college sports should “Continue as usual” needs to take a step back and ask themselves if they’d sign the below: “Is losing one of my player’s lives an acceptable trade to win a national* title?” Yes _ / No _ Signature: _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ Date: _ _ _ _ _ _ And yes, there will be an asterisk. So the future Clemson/LSU/Bama team that wins the ‘2020 Dr. Pepper National* Title’ will always have that nice little reminder. Except it won’t be reminding anyone of the teams that made the right decision to postpone their seasons until plans to safely play were ironclad across each conference and school. That asterisk won’t remind anyone of the teams that mandated it’s players had a union to voice their legitimate concerns instead of being silenced by those who only care about bringing in money for the school and generating high draft picks at the next level. It won’t even remind anyone of any decent play that results from teams lining up across from one another. Naw, in 20 years it’ll just show up on wikipedia as a highlighted blue ‘‘2020 Dr. Pepper National* Champion” hyperlink leading to a picture of Saban/Ed O/Dabo hoisting that gaudy advertisement over their head with a giant smile on their face with the pictures of all the players who died to make it possible shown underneath. Some half-baked CFB redditor late at night on a break from studying for finals will stumble across it towards the end of their hour-long wiki hole and a concerned “wtf?” will occupy their mind for a couple seconds until their phone buzzes from a notification that their favorite chaturbate model just signed on and the fleeting moment will wait to be realized again by the wayward internet diver
My previous post regarding line movement in NCAA Men's Basketball spreads received a lot of great feedback and started some really great conversation. As I continue looking into this type of data I will share all of my results here in order to keep those conversations going or, at the very least, continue providing some interesting information for everyone to explore while we don't have any sports to bet on. The most recent numbers I've studied are college basketball totals. The overall takeaways this time are very similar to those previous:
Movements on a total correctly predict the winning side less than half the time.
No profitable betting strategy can be formulated by using line movements alone.
However, there were some interesting differences between sides and totals that are noteworthy:
In reference to the adage, "The public loves favorites and overs"; Overs are not quite as popular with the "public" as favorites. Totals moved up (in favor of the over) 8.7% more often than down (in favor of the under). Recall that favorites saw an almost 11% bias compared to underdogs.
The totals market is slightly more efficient than the spread market. Total line movements had an overall accuracy of 49.84%, compared to 48.99% for spreads. I explained that fading the market's spread movements would save a bettor over 1,000 units vs tailing. This same strategy for totals would save only 172 units.
I found the first indication of market efficiency in one specific sub-set of data. When a total is bet down (in favor of the under), it correctly predicts an under 50.3% of the time. While still not successful enough to overcome -110 odds, it was pretty cool to uncover that the under is a "sharp" play more often than not.
I presented a theory at the end of this article that smaller markets are more likely to be comprised of a higher percentage of sharp players. College basketball is only ever king of the American betting markets during March and early April. Throughout the entire rest of the season it pales in comparison to the NFL and NBA. I made the assumption that recreational, so-called "five dollar" bettors are much more likely to make their "entertainment only" bets in one of those bigger markets. While it certainly can't be said that every die-hard fan or bettor with a model is a sharp player, I think it's an interesting perspective to have before analyzing those bigger markets. In the meantime, as always, feel free to message me with any thoughts or questions, and stay safe! Full article with graphical representations can be found here: https://gamblingandsubmarines.com/evaluating-line-movement-in-ncaa-basketball-totals/
[OC] The L.A. Clippers may be the best team in the league right now, but they may not be a "super team" quite yet
Ever since the shocking news about Kawhi Leonard and Paul George, the Los Angeles Clippers have emerged as the betting favorite in Vegas to win the 2019-20 title. And they genuinely may be. They should be a great team. However, there are some signs that the hype may be slightly overboard based on a few factors outlined here. overachievement in 2018-19 This past season, the L.A. Clippers went 48-34, an incredible record given the expectations. However, there are certain advanced stats that suggest that the "48" win total may have been an overachievement. Among them: the Clippers had a +0.8 point differential on the year, which is a good mark but one that's below standard for a team in their 48-win range. To illustrate, the 49-win Boston Celtics had a +4.4 differential, the 49-win Oklahoma City Thunder were +3.4, the 48-win Indiana Pacers registered +3.3., and the 48-win San Antonio Spurs logged +1.7. The Western Conference is tougher than the East, but even if we make that adjustment, the Clippers overachieved. SRS (Simple Rating System) is a stat that adjusts for schedule. By that metric, the Clippers had a rating of +1.09, 13th in the NBA. Again, that falls behind teams in their win range like the Celtics (+3.9), Thunder (+3.5), Pacers (+2.8), and Spurs (+1.8). Given all that, it's no surprise that "expected W-L record" claims the Clippers should have gone 43-39 given their advanced stat performance. Realistically, 44-45 wins feels like a reasonable outcome for last year's squad. a for(e)ward to this year The Clippers are going to trot out a wing combination of Kawhi Leonard and Paul George, which may be one of the best in recent memory. I'm extremely excited to see how those two do on the defensive end; they may be the best pair of defensive wings since Michael Jordan and Scottie Pippen. That said, let's not underestimate the performance of the Clippers' previous forwards, Tobias Harris and Danilo Gallinari. Both are good players, who happened to have extraordinary years for the Clips last year. In the 55 games prior to his trade, Tobias Harris shot 43.4% from beyond the arc. In his 68 games played, Danilo Gallinari shot 43.3% from three himself. Those are blazing hot numbers, even when judged through the context of two good shooters (their career averages are 36.4% and 37.6%, respectively.) Obviously, Kawhi Leonard and Paul George will be clear improvements at forward, but the question becomes a matter of: how much? If you trust ESPN's "wins added" stat, then Kawhi + PG would have added your team +28.2 wins last year. Now, again, that comes with the caveat about the accuracy of this stat. It relies heavily on RPM, which largely feels fair but does have some outliers. The stat loved Paul George's defensive impact (+3.1 in RPM) and hasn't charted Kawhi Leonard as an elite regular season defender in some time (only +0.02 last year.) The truth is probably somewhere in between; Leonard didn't play like a shutdown defender all year long, but he's obviously a good defender anyway. Of course, we can't simply take the Clippers win total and add +28, because we're losing two good forwards in the process. Tobias Harris and Danilo Gallinari would have combined for +17.4 wins last year. Overall, they're suggesting that this upgrade is good for about +10/11 wins. Rather than debate the accuracy of these stats, the purpose is merely to suggest that the Clippers' forwards (a red-hot half-season of Tobias Harris and a healthy Danilo Gallinari) aren't anything to scoff at. watering down the Sweet Lou If you want to boil down the Clippers' surprising success last season, you can credit a few factors. However, the primary one may have been the stellar bench play of Lou Williams and Montrezl Harrell. Williams, in particular, has thrived in his current role off the bench. The production per minute is staggering. He averaged 20.0 points and 5.4 assists in only 26.6 minutes a night. However, it's difficult to see Williams playing the exact same role again. Effectively, he was the Clippers' lead option every minute he played. With Kawhi Leonard and Paul George, he's going to have to play some more complementary basketball. The big concern in that regard would be whether Williams can be as effective without the ball in his hands. As a pure three point shooter and spacer, he's good but not any great shakes (36% last year, 34.9% for his career.) Where Williams truly thrives is attacking the basket. He averaged 6.5 free throw attempts per game (hitting 88% at the stripe). If he's functioning more as a third option, that number would presumably go down. Taking the ball out of Williams' hands may also highlight his issues on defense. Last season, he graded as an atrocious defender (-3.5 on RPM). He made up with that with his offense (+3.5), but if his offensive is more limited, that may be problematic. buying high on superstars After helping to bring a title to Toronto, Kawhi Leonard's stock and reputation may be at an all-time high. Right now, a huge percentage of community members here consider him the best player in the entire NBA. He may indeed be that -- when he's healthy. Unfortunately, the "when healthy" is an important caveat. Leonard's durability concerns date back further than his load management this year, and his prior injury in San Antonio. Through the course of his NBA career, Leonard has played in 73% of his regular season games, a pace that projects to 60/82 games played per year. Even prior to his big Zaza Pachulia injury, he only played 70+ of his games 3 of his 6 seasons. Going forward, it will be interesting to see how much the Clippers can afford to manage his minutes and games in the West. Given their long-term commitment to Leonard (and their loss of picks) they would be wise to be prudent there. Projecting Leonard to play about 70 games this regular season feels like a fair oveunder in that regard. Meanwhile, Leonard's new partner in crime Paul George is also coming off a highwater mark this past year in terms of his public value. With George, I'm less concerned with his durability or shoulder issues (he's played 75+ in each of the last four seasons). However, I'm slightly concerned that we may be judging him based on a career year. This season, Paul George averaged 28.0 points per game. Prior to that, his career high was only 23.7. This season, he finished 3rd in MVP voting. Prior to that, he only cracked the MVP ballot one time (finishing 9th in 2013-14). Now, there are a few explanations for Paul George's career year that may depend on the eye of the beholder. If you're an optimist, you'd suggest that he's fully recovered from his broken leg and firmly in his prime. If you're a pessimist, you may argue that George simply got hotter than he ever has before (especially in the beginning of the year), and may have benefited from Russell Westbrook's madcap attacking+passing ability. As always, the truth is usually somewhere in between. I expect George to be a great player again, but counting on him to have a top 3 season would be generous. In an average year, he's probably a 2nd team All-NBA player. overall expectations There are a thousand other factors that go into a "win total" projection that we don't have time to dig into. And some of those aren't negative at all. For example, the fact that Lou Williams can carry an offense on his own when given the opportunity actually provides the Clippers a nice safety net in the event that Kawhi Leonard or Paul George misses time. Given that, the Clippers' "floor" is still quite high. Even if you expect some missed time and some shooting regression, this team should easily win 50+ games. Overall, I would pencil in 56-60 wins for this Clippers team. That's higher than some other advanced sites (FiveThirtyEight has them at 54), but lower than most fans may suggest at the moment. However, the Clippers fans should get excited when the lights come on and "playoff mode" gets activated. With extra rest between games, Kawhi Leonard should be more effective than ever, and potentially push this team over the top and to the title. That said, I would not label this a "super team" that's going to walk to that title. There are a bunch of very good teams in the league (particularly out West) that will have a puncher's chance to win it all themselves and aren’t far behind at all. The Clippers may still be at the top of that pack, but it's going to be a dog fight all the way through.
Heat vs. Lakers Game 2, 10/2/20 NBA Finals Betting Predictions Heat vs. Lakers Game 2 Prediction Following the Lakers’ romp over the Heat in Game 1 of the 2020 NBA Finals, oddsmakers have inflated the point spread to 9.5 for Game 2 tonight at 9:00 p.m. ET. Our betting trends, also known as public betting percentages, represent actual wagers. A large money percentage indicates a higher likelihood that pros are betting on this side. Monitoring public betting data is a vital tool used by sharp bettors to find value within the sports betting marketplace. NBA sharp money. UPDATE 6:15 P.M. ET WEDNESDAY: SuperBook manager and oddsmaker Eric Osterman said the total is landing wiseguy action."We have some sharp money on the Under, and the public is ... One of the most popular sports betting systems is the “contrarian method” of going against whatever side the public is backing. The idea behind this betting system is that the public can be easily brainwashed by the media and tends to be wrong more often than not, so the more excited and loaded up they are on one side of a game, the more likely it is that the “smart” wager is taking ... NBA betting remains one of the most popular forms of sports wagering, with the popularity of LeBron James, Kevin Durant and other stars driving the interest and the action. And while NBA point spreads factor in most discussions, more fans are handicapping OVER/UNDER lines and betting basketball props on Durant, LeBron and other top stars.
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The NBA’s regular season is over and Odd Shark’s resident hoops expert Gilles Gallant has got some great ideas for how to wager on the futures market. He thinks you need to take a hard look at ... Learn what it means to bet the Total and how to read the odds when it comes to picking the Over or Under. This Sports Betting 101 video will have you cashing... Our systems work for all major U.S. Sports - the NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL, College Football and NCAA basketball. Sign up for a FREE Demo of our Bet Labs customizable historical odds database here - http ... Sports Betting 101 and Betting Tips: Direct from the WagerTalk TV Studios in Las Vegas host Kelly Stewart talks with sports betting experts Teddy Covers and ... [email protected] Bet NBA for a living - NBA LIVE BETTING EXPERT! ($687.00 in one NIGHT) I am the only one in the world betting LIVE NBA and winning at an 80% winning rate! The PROOF ...
