Second layer solutions for prediction markets.
This is an example of fundamental DD that takes place at ‘smart’ money institutions based on my professional experience in IBD, Private Equity & most recently at a HF (mods can message me for proof). Not thoroughly fleshed out b/c you autists have limited attention spans, but a summary. Figured I’d take the time to give back to this community that has provided many lolz, & should be a good measuring stick when evaluating other forms of fundamental DD posted here.
NFA.
DKNG - DraftKings, Inc.: vertically integrated US mobile betting operator that also provides retail sports betting & back-end betting solutions through SBTech. Think of SBTech as the tech ‘market-maker’ for traditional sports betting, they do all the funny math to set the betting odds & seem to be working on back-end solutions for DKNG Casino
The Big Picture - Total annual US Gambling Revenue: ~$90Bn [1]
- Casinos: ~$75Bn
- Illegal Sports Betting: ~$13Bn
- Horse Racing: ~$0.8Bn
- Daily Fantasy Sports: ~$0.4Bn
Only ~2% of the ~$90Bn gambling revenues were placed online which is the lowest in the world where betting online is legal. For example, in other countries online gaming activity represents ~6% - ~52% of total gambling revenues, with ~12% being the average.
Wall Street expects online gaming revenue to be $20Bn-$40Bn within the next 10 years. For this to be achieved, the online gambling market will have to achieve a ~30% penetration rate on total country gaming revenues. There is an expectation that this is could be easily achievable given penetration trends overseas - see page 11 of this:
https://s1.rationalcdn.com/vendors/stars-group/documents/presentations/TSG-Investor-Day_March-27-2019.pdf Other catalysts include increasing adaptation of sports betting in more states. States that have both legal sports betting + online sports betting permitted: NV, NJ, WV, PA, IA. Sports betting permitted but no online: DE, MS, RI, MO, AR. Prior to COVID there was ongoing discussions across many States, especially ones with growing deficits to explore how permitting sports betting could create a fresh avenue of tax dollars. Post COVID there is an expectation that these discussions will be given extra focus as many States will be hungry for incremental tax dollars.
Important to note that currently 43/50 States allow DFS, but given the small share DFS has on total Gaming Revenues, it increasingly looks like DKNG is banking on traditional sports betting for a variety of reasons, more later. There are entire articles on Google arguing this catalyst so I’ll end this here.
Digging Deeper DKNG’s main offerings are Daily Fantasy Sports (“DFS”) products & traditional sports book products to its clients. Long story short, a metric to look for in my opinion (that is curiously not reported by management or remarked on) is the hold % in traditional gaming sector parlance or the ‘rake’ & compare it to the ‘traditional’ gaming products like sports betting & Blackjack.
For DFS: DKNG takes ~15% of the prize pool (note: used to be ~6-11% [2]). Curiously, their main competitor FanDuel also has moved up to a ~15% rake recently. Google searches show the smaller competitors have a rake in the ~13% range.
This ‘rake’ has grown ~2x in 6 years, but it has been a delicate move on behalf of management. Why? B/c the more ‘sophisticated’ DFS players (equal to autistic day traders on Robinhood) have noted this increase & based on some Googling, some have moved down market to the smaller players. As a side note, many live casino games have their rules altered to grow the Hold %. For example, Blackjack games with 6:5 payouts on 21 have materially higher Hold % than the traditional BJ rules that pay out 3:2. Given the findings so far, DKNG may not have much room to materially increase its hold % in DFS games in the near-term from current of 15%. More on this later.
Now why the fuck is this important? This is important b/c the typical sports book (ex-Parlays) have a ~5% hold %/rake. Parlays have up to a ~30% hold (which is why it’s commonly known as the sucker’s bet), & just for reference, the average Blackjack table clocks in 14.5%. What this means: Every dollar put into these games, the “House” or DKNG, will take 15% of your money for DFS games, for sports bets they will be pocketing ~5%, up to ~30% if you’re into parlays, & we’ll just use the standard 14.5% BJ hold for the DraftKings Casino platform.
So why the acquisition of SBTech & a foray into the traditional sports gambling market? As you can see previously, the illegal sports betting market is
>30x the size of the current daily fantasy sports market. So it’s clear that the DFS providers including DKNG are foraying into the space to capture this user base & hopefully convert them into games that have a higher hold %, such as DFS/DKNG Casino.
As of May 2020, DKNG has achieved a 30% penetration rate on its ~4mm ‘monetized’ DFS clientele to its Online Sports Book (OSB), from the OSB+DFS clientele, DKNG has converted 50% into its DraftKings Casino platform.
Including non-monetized users, user base totals at 12mm. Based on these unit economics: every 1mm of additional users -> 333k monetized users for DFS -> 100k users for OSB -> 50k users for DraftKings Casino.
Some Numbers – Italicized/Bolded the important - In total, DKNG has DFS paying clientele of ~4mm, the metric management focuses on is “Monthly Unique Payers (MUP)” which spans across DFS & online sports betting***. As of Q1’20 they reported 720,000*** MUPs, representing +16% YoY growth [3]
- Average revenue per monthly user (ARPU) of ~$41, +11% YoY
- Based on previous observation of Hold %, looks like ARPU growth will be limited
- Since ’17, MUP has grown at a ~11% CAGR & ARPU has grown at a ~19% CAGR
- As a side note: the ~4mm monetized user base was acquired at ~$122/user over 3 years. Total users cost them $41/user over the last 3 years [3].
- They are currently EBITDA negative & Wall St expects them to be positive by 2023
- I took a dive into the math driving this, here is a summary:
- Based on their current cost structure they will need to have ~1.7mm MUPs at an ARPU of ~$46 to break-even. This implies total monetized users of ~10mm from ~4mm currently
Numbers that represent Risks to Long Thesis - DKNG’s user base of ~12mm is on the low end of the sector vs. its ‘brick & mortar’ competitor's user bases (online betting platforms with physical casino presence)
- CZR with 55mm, MGM with 33mm, ERI with 10mm (in pending merger with CZR, could have a lot of overlap), FanDuel with 8.5mm
- Is there a concern for increased marketing costs to increase user base? Let’s look at a case study of NJ, the first state to open both mobile & retail sports betting:
- FanDuel + DraftKings have held 80%+ of the OSB market share since 12/2018 which is estimated to be driven by the conversion opportunity from DFS that is unique to both companies [4]
- On the flipside, a case study to examine going forward is how DKNG can get OSB customers in a State that does not allow DFS. Nevada. Home to Las fucking Vegas. Prior to NV pushing FanDuel/DKNG out (highly likely due to casino lobbying), NV was a top-15 State in terms of revenue for them. NV is home to the fattest sports book in the US, & recently the gaming commission started to parse the data on sportsbook wagers done online vs. in-person, & it came out to roughly 50/50. It will be interesting to see how they try to capture market share in a state with no DFS
- Long-term EBITDA margin target of 35% requires huge growth in MUPs
- Based on their estimated '22 cost structure: Holding ARPU of ~$46, MUPs will have to be ~5.2mm, a 7x increase from current to achieve a EBITDA margin of 35%
- A focus on future earnings will be management's ability to shift to a more fixed-cost structure which would effectively lower the MUP requirement for profitability
Things to look for when going Long - Progress of additional States legalizing sports betting – specifically, States with DFS already legalized
- Cost structure evolving to a more fixed mix vs. the mostly variable mix currently as this will be the forward figure that determines profitability
- Increasing User Base (Curr.: 12mm) -> Monetized Base (Curr.: 4mm) -> MUP (1Q’20: 0.7mm)
- Management seems to be focused more on the first step, but one thing to note is that the 33% monetization rate is very high when compared to something like League of Legends which isn’t entirely comparable but in 2013 had a ~4% monetization rate [5]. This, combined with the below implies that this conversion rate may be the ceiling for now
- As a side note, ~6 years ago FanDuel had ~300k monetized on an ~800k user base for a monetization rate of ~37% [6]
Share Price Target Given the cost structure of the company, I’m going to base the price targets around Enterprise Value / Revenues (driven by MUPs & ARPUs).
- MUP sensitivity of 5mm - 6mm
- ARPU sensitivity from $41 - $47 for an average of $44, just a $3 increase from current of $41.
- Share Price targets based on 2.0x - 4.5x EV / Sales.
- Note: Flutter Entertainment (FanDuel ParentCo) trades at ~3.6x EV/Sales
Bear Case MUP: 5mm -> $20.32 - $45.73 Base Case MUP: 5.5mm -> $22.27 - $50.10 Bull Case MUP: 6mm -> $24.21 - $54.47 These MUPs imply a monetized customer base of 28mm – 33mm. At the high-end, this implies that DKNG monetized customer base will equal MGM’s current total user base.
At yesterday’s close of $43.70, DKNG is trading at 3.5x – 4.5x forward Revenues on an expected >5,000 MUPs.
Share Price drivers / considerations:
- Continued multiple expansion
- Consideration: A 1x premium to FanDuel's 3.6x, implies a ~15% upside to current. They're bigger than FanDuel, do they deserve the premium?
- MUP Growth exceeding beyond targets
- Consideration: Stock currently implies that they should on average be growing at 40% QoQ – during 2018 they had on average +30% growth QoQ in MUPs, marking their best year
Management Team Jason Robins, 39 – Co-Founder & CEO. Duke BA, started DraftKings from day 1 in 2011. The 2 other buddies he started the Company with are still at DKNG. Dude navigated the Company through the scandal that rocked them in ’15 & ’16, and was the trailblazer in getting DFS labeled as a non-gambling product that enabled it to open in States without a gaming designation. This shit is the stuff that gets people in history books. His accomplishments make him seem like a very competent guy. Has 3 kids now, and only ~3% economic ownership in DKNG but has 90% of the voting power through his Class B share ownership. Also he actively participates in venture investments, sitting on 10 boards.
His comp plan performance bonus target is pretty murky, but main drivers are EPS growth, revenue growth, then a bunch of margin & return metrics, along with share price returns. Overall, very open-ended & it’s safe to say as long as shit doesn’t hit the fan, he will be eligible for his max payouts year over year. I’m assuming the lawyers tried to encompass everything possible for maximum flexibility to justify him earning his max comp as long as DKNG is still around.
Since he’s got voting control of 90%, I’ll end the specific-person overview here, but want to note that they have a very bloated C-suite. 12 folks at DKNG, 8 folks at SBTech, all with C-suite designations. Whereas their main competitor FanDuel, has 3 guys with a C-suite designations & 1 EVP, but is a sub under a larger ParentCo that has its own management team of ~5 guys.
Looking through glassdoor you can see the biggest complaint among employees giving bad reviews is based on management, all of the specific issues they point out IMO are a result of a top-heavy company. Seems like a good starting point to optimize their cost structure, but given Robins' history of sticking this entire thing through with his co-founders since '11 stuff like this doesn't seem to be a part of his playbook. They’re a public company now though, so it’s going to be interesting to see going forward.
TL;DR:
If I were to initiate a position in DKNG, the stock would have to fall to the $35-$37 range for me to be a buyer of the stock, and based on this rough intro analysis I'll be considering Put options if it breaches $50. I would not touch Calls at this level.
[1] Wall Street Research - 6/27/19
[2]
https://rotogrinders.com/articles/bang-for-your-buck-a-look-at-dfs-industry-rake-153302 [3]
https://draftkings.gcs-web.com/static-files/8f3a5c5a-7228-45bf-aab2-63604111c48d [4] Wall Street Research - 5/19/20
[5]
https://www.gamasutra.com/view/news/223071/Dont_monetize_like_League_of_Legends_consultant_says.php [6]
https://rotogrinders.com/threads/how-many-people-actually-play-dfs-regularly-252044 submitted by Did you understand that pokies are one of the most played games in gambling enterprises and also on the internet video gaming? Actually, the pokies produce concerning 70 percent of the average gambling establishment's income. This is because they are so simple yet thrilling and also do not require any discovering or special skills. Unlike other gambling games, pokies depend primarily on the player's good luck in mix with couple of essential strategies.
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Australian Fruit Machine Or Pokies.
In the 1950s, an Australian company called Aristocrat established their very first one-armed bandit called the "Clubman." They modified it 2 years later on with a brand-new as well as better vending machine called the "Clubmaster." Nevertheless the first vending machine was originally created in the USA of America by a man named Charles Fey Free Pokies.
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Discover Pokies Online!
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How to Wager Online With a Poker Device
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Restriction Your Number of Sheds
As you have fun with the on the internet variation of the video game, you would certainly notice that the functions very closely appears like that of those located in the fruit machine, the UK variation of poker. Comparable to any various other gambling enterprise video games, it is additionally based a lot on good luck. That is why among the most effective methods that a player might utilize is to stop while he is still has even more wins than losses. He must have the ability to know when to quit especially if he is on a losing streak. If, as an example, you still continue playing the video game, you run the risk of ending up bankrupt after the game Free Pokies.
Finest No Down Payment Incentive Gambling Enterprises
On the internet casino sites are getting an increasing number of prominent nowadays. They provide different rewards to their present participants as well as likewise lots of special bonuses to brand-new participants so as to draw in more gamers. These incentives are supplied on conditions that you will certainly have to stay in the play for a specified time. If you are a gambling establishment video game enthusiast as well as are looking for an on the internet gambling establishment then the most effective alternative will be to try to find no deposit perk gambling establishments.
A few of the most effective are gone over below.
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Sorts Of Online Casino Perks
Among the most effective factors that gamers require to on-line gaming is the suggestion of enjoying casino site incentives. While standard land-based gambling establishment perks such as complimentary drinks and dishes obviously can not fit right into the world of internet gaming, betting internet sites still take care of to draw in and compensate consumers by providing them rewarding bonus offers.
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Invite Incentives
Invite bonus offers are specifically as their name suggests - a reward that invites players to a certain online gambling enterprise. Invite (or 'sign-up' rewards) are the online gambling establishment's way to draw in players onto their site as well as try their online casino. With a lot of on-line gambling establishments available, it is essential that welcome bonuses take care of to catch the player's eye with more-than-generous offers and also problems. Sometimes, players may feel that the deal is ALSO excellent to be real; nevertheless, it is certainly worth looking into every promo as a lot of websites really are using wonderful terms merely for players to experiment with their casinos. There are numerous kinds of welcome perks, both most typical being a match benefit as well as a no-deposit perk.
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A no-deposit bonus is an extremely profitable bargain that is not supplied at all sites. Basically, gamers do not have to make any type of first down payment at the website after registering. Rather, they will instantly be rewarded with credit reports to begin their gaming session. As with all bonus offers, it is important that gamers read the conditions of these kind of promotions very carefully.
Month-to-month Incentives
As soon as players have attempted a particular online casino site with making use of the welcome rewards as well as enjoy the games and features, the opportunities are that they will certainly continue dipping into the online casino over a size of time. To make sure that gamers really do return for even more, sites reward returning consumers with generous month-to-month bonuses - so called due to the fact that they are typically offered on a monthly basis. These incentives are additionally known as reload incentives since they start when gamers reload their accounts at the online casino. The monthly benefit is normally awarded on a percent basis, as an example 20% of the amount that player spends moneying his or her account.
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Obviously, on the internet casino sites are eager to draw in gamers that spend big quantities on their on-line pc gaming home entertainment. Thus, these gamers, called money players, are compensated additional amounts for depositing and also playing at on the internet casinos. High-stakes gamblers likewise take pleasure in one-of-a-kind promos, VIP clubs and other benefits to make their remain as satisfying and also beneficial as feasible Free Pokies.
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Great on-line gambling enterprises use a vast array of payment approaches whereby gamers can transfer as well as withdraw their funds. Some websites wish to motivate players to utilize a certain payment approach (such as Click2Pay or Moneybookers) and therefore supply gamers an extra 10 or 15% additional bonus simply for making use of these techniques.
Online Casino Site Incentives
As can be seen, there are many sorts of bonuses to choose from in the on the internet gambling enterprise industry. The technique is to learn about every one of these as long as feasible and then choose one (or numerous) that suit the gamer's specific gaming requirements and also lifestyle. In the long run, the incentive needs to offer the gamers well as well as ought to not make them invest more than they originally laid out to. When all is claimed as well as done, on-line gambling establishment benefits are among the most effective reasons to check out web video gaming.
A Quick Guide To Online Gambling Establishment Bonus Offers
One of the big attractions of on-line casinos is the various types of rewards provided by them. Remain updated concerning the selection of incentives you can anticipate when you gamble online, to make sure that you can make use of the benefits that profit you the most. Here are one of the most typical type of online gambling establishment bonuses you can anticipate.
Invite Or Sign-Up Benefit
Additionally referred to as the new player perk, the welcome or sign-up perk is the very first point you will come across and the most popular type of bonus offer. These on the internet gambling enterprise perks are usually additional set apart into percentage, no-deposit, or match rewards.
* Suit perks are the most common sort of on-line casino incentive where you obtain one debt for each credit scores you acquire. This is usually a 100 percent benefit on your very first acquisition with a restriction of $100. This bonus might differ as well as it is not mandatory to spend the $100. Most online gambling establishments enable you to purchase a minimal $20 to make you eligible for the match benefit Free Pokies.
* The percent bonus is anything more than 100 percent and provides you 200 percent or 300 percent. Almost all casino benefits are similar to percent perks, no matter whether they take place to be suit or portion Australia.
* The no-deposit benefit is certainly the most preferred bonus offer. It can be cost-free cash in the kind of cost-free gambling establishment credit reports that are included in your gaming account when you subscribe and free play online casino where you obtain a complimentary newbie's equilibrium. You can maintain any kind of earnings that surpass this quantity.
Reload Bonus
A reload bonus offer is offered to get you to keep reloading your account as well as remain to wager online. It is generally comparable to the welcome or sign-up incentive as well as offers a 100 percent pair up. This may be on a monthly, once a week, or day-to-day basis, relying on which on-line gambling establishment you are playing.
Down Payment Method Perk
When you pick a specific down payment method with a casino-usually your credit card or an on-line repayment provider-to fund your gaming account, you obtain a deposit approach reward. This can be in the series of 5 percent to 15 percent, and also is independent of other rewards you get Australia.
High Roller Bonus Offer
A deposit of $1,000 or more receives a money player perk and also ranges from 25 percent to half Australia.
Loyalty Rewards
Loyalty bonuses are used by on-line casino sites as Players Club bonus offers as well as special acquisition bonuses.
* The Players Club perk is typically called a player rewards or "compensation" reward as well as involves accumulating factors based on your on the internet casino games wagers. This is typically set aside as one factor per $10 bet. When you gather 1,000 factors, you can retrieve them in United States dollars in casino site debts. Most gambling establishments enroll you in the casino site players club by default. It is, nonetheless, far better to confirm.
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For More Information Visit Here submitted by I've been an extremely casual UFC fan for a while, I would watch a couple highlights when they were on ESPN or watch the "Top Knockouts" videos on youtube but never really paid much attention to the sport prior to the build-up to UFC 229. As you may guess it was McGregor that got me more involved with his antics and trash talk, it piqued my interest. About a month before 229 I got FightPass and began my journey through the history of the UFC and through this board have even branched out into PRIDE, WEC, Cage Warriors, Bellator, etc. though still limited in those promotions. As I went through I would post here but mostly read to try and get a better grasp on the skill of the sport and not just the entertainment. Finally, I got the bright idea to take notes that could help me remember the fights as well as remember any questions I may have had. I posted in the general discussion a play by play of a couple of events but the GD can get really crowded and imo is not the best for a specific discussion so I figured a post would work best. Essentially it's gonna be a play by play of the fights, with some of my thoughts on the event as it goes and questions about what I saw. I would love to have some input if you guys remember a fight and maybe disagreed with a decision or something that happened. Also, I think it'll be fun to see a casual fans take and hopefully their growth in knowledge of the sport as it goes along. So without further ado.
UFC 79: Nemesis
When: December 29, 2007
Where: Mandalay Bay Events Center, Las Vegas, Nevada
Originally this was supposed to be Hughes/Serra after TUF 6, however, Serra had to pull out due to injury and instead we get the much more enticing match-up in GSP/Hughes. Also on the card is Wanderlei/Liddell which should be an absolute war. Machida is also on this card so I'm pretty hyped coming into this event.
Rich Clementi V Melvin Guillard
Apparently, this is a blood feud because Clementi tapped out Guillard’s HS wrestling coach some years ago and they’ve shit talked and scrapped about it on the outside.
Rd 1. Circling for the first minute with barely anything thrown. Guillard comes in with a combo and Clementi hits a leg kick. Back to circling and another combo from Guillard. Guillard is picked up in a body lock and slammed. Clementi gets his back but doesn’t really have anything and then they scramble and back to the feet. Big right from Guillard and almost lands a kick but slips but is able to scramble and slam Clementi down. Clementi scrambles and almost gets an arm lock. Clementi is able to get his back and chokes him out and then DX suck it overs him and Melvin tries to come after him.
TL;DR both come out swinging, Clementi gets the back and chokes him out. A few post-fight antics and more shit talking.
Sokoudjou V Lyoto Machida
Sokoudjou walks out in a predator mask, which is sick. Machida earned his black belt 2 months before this fight according to the announce team.
Rd 1. Soukoudjou hits a big punch and follows it with a takedown but Machida sweeps and ends up on top. In Sokoudjou’s half guard, Machida nearly gets a kimura and then continues working on that arm. Machida does a little GnP to try and pass and is unable to. They get stood up, bad call by Yamasaki IMO. Soukodjou gets a takedown against the fence but Machida is back up and they clinch to end the round. 10-9 Machida.
Rd 2. Head kick from Machida starts the round. Then leg kick from Machida, Sokoudjou really telegraphing everything he’s about to throw. Machida moves whenever Sokoudjou tries something. Catches Soukoudjou and knocks him down gets some good GnP and then back to half guard. Machida is slowly getting where he wants. Rogan says he’s getting owned. Back in half guard and a couple of big elbows coming from Machida. Machida gets the arm triangle and Soukoudjou taps. Dominant from Machida despite how much Goldberg tried to talk Sokoudjou up.
TL;DR Impressive ground work from Machida ends in a submission victory. Really impressive with how Machida stays active on the ground even when he doesn't look like it
Eddie Sanchez V Soa Palelei
Rd 1. Eddie comes quick to engage and Soa clinches and gets him against the cage. Soa trips him but Eddie is doing everything he can to stay up, takedown is completed but not in a really good position so Soa keeps trying to move him. Soa hits a couple of hits and then Sanchez hits an apparent low blow and it’s stopped. Rogan says it looks beltline but idk. Engage quickly on the restart and Sanchez gets him against the cage and throws some punches. The position is switched with Soa on the outside and Eddie against the cage, they trade knees and then are split. Good knee by Soa and Sanchez responds with some punches and barely misses a big one. Clinch against the fence and Sanchez gives a good uppercut as the round ends. Nothing really significant lands but I give it Sanchez 10-9.
Rd 2. Eddie advances and punches and then a clinch on the fence with Eddie against it. Eddie pushes it in the clinch but eventually split up again. Soa lands a good shot and pushes against the fence. Eddie screams out “yeah boy” and “come on” in the clinch. They’re split again and then Soa throws a couple of wild punches that miss and they clinch and a good elbow from Sanchez, they go to the ground with Sanchez on top. Scramble and back up trade jabs and they tie up against the fence, little action going on. Sanchez hits a big uppercut and nearly buckles Soa who clinches to try and recover. They’re split up again, Sanchez throws stuff not too much landing but definitely doing more. Soa is bleeding. Not a ton of action but Eddie is doing most of it, another 10-9 for Sanchez.
Rd 3. Sanchez is aggressive coming out and they clinch again and do little in the clinch except Sanchez throwing some rabbit punches. Sanchez throws some good punches that Soa just covers up against and then clinches when he can. Sanchez throws again and Soa pushes him away. Sanchez again aggressive and Soa clinches. Eddie tries to trip him but Soa is able to clinch again to do nothing. Soa tries a half-hearted takedown and a half-hearted knee. Sanchez throws some more punches and Yamasaki stops the fight. Weird, but Soa is holding his eye. I guess it’s a TKO. All Sanchez that fight. I think it was an early stoppage but Yamasaki was just doing us a favor to be honest.
TL;DR essentially Sanchez hits and then Soa clinches for three rounds until Sanchez lands enough for Yamasaki to call it. Sanchez dominates the little action there is to a TKO victory
Chuck Liddell V Wanderlei Silva
I’m pumped, this is my introduction to a seasoned Wanderlei (he got destroyed by Belfort and then an easy win and a loss to Tito in 2000) so I’m beyond excited, it’s almost unbelievable to think if Serra hadn’t gotten hurt it would have been Serra/Hughes as the main event over this. “Party Like A Rockstar” and “Crank That” are played as Rogan discusses the fight, what a throwback. Silva said he’s gonna come out and attack so hopefully this fight is a war and better than the last couple of Liddell fights.
Rd 1. That wrist roll is focused on, crowd is electric for this. Circling both cautious, Wanderlei throws the first combo that doesn’t land. Liddell advances and they both throw combos not really landing. A lot of almost punches and the crowd gets antsy. Good leg kick from Wanderlei and good punch from Liddell and Wanderlei possums him to explode and they trade some good shots. Liddell trying to stalk him and they clash again and Liddell misses a big shot. Liddell pressuring and every time he throws one Silva counters. Good combo from Liddell. They trade huge shots, Silva looks like he lands the better ones. Liddell lands some more as Silva misses an uppercut. Trade again and circle to finish it. Really close round, when they trade it’s exciting. I’d give it to Chuck due to him being the more aggressive where Silva was waiting to counter, though that was his gameplan it looked like and everything else I felt was really even.. 10-9 Chuck
Rd 2. Silva is aggressive and they exchange some good shots. The cauliflower ear is popped on Silva. Silva is now the more aggressive one and throwing more punches. Body kick from Silva, and again, then a counter punch. Good punch from Liddell. Chuck slips but Silva can’t take advantage. Another kick from Silva and a good combo. Good counter from Silva when Chuck throws a jab. Silva throws a punch that makes Liddell slip. Chuck with a good jab and response from Silva. The first clinch of the night and good knee then wild punches and Silva is cut above the eye, they throw some big punches. Good cross from Silva and huge combo from Silva. Big punch by Chuck and then they go with big punches thrown. Chuck gets a takedown. What a round. I barely give it Silva. Chuck landed the biggest bunch but the next few biggest all went to Silva. 10-9 Silva for me.
Rd 3. Chuck immediately gets a takedown and into Silva’s guard but they scramble and are back up. Leg kick from Silva. Chuck gets a good shot over the top and a good jab when Silva tries to come inside. Shonie special catches Silva. Liddell attacks and they exchange with Chuck trying to finish it but Silva stays in it. Liddell just about finished it there. Silva attacks, and is backed up on the fence and more exchanges. Silva is now pressing and is caught with a cross when he goes to jab. Easy takedown from Chuck whose tired to end the round. Liddell 10-9 that round.
Decision I got it 29-28 Liddell. Really exciting fight and when they weren’t throwing the suspense kept it exciting. Judges go 29-28, 30-27, 30-27 for Liddell in a unanimous decision. I went to MMAdecisions after this and it looks like 29-28 was the most popular choice.
TL;DR an exciting stand up war that was extremely tense. I loved this fight, it flew by, Liddell just gets the better of Silva
GSP V Matt Hughes
GSP-Hughes III. This should be another great one. GSP is coming off the Serra defeat and victory over Koscheck and apparently, Hughes has reignited his training after taking the last couple fights less seriously than he should have (this is coming from his talk on TUF). Should be a great ending to a fantastic trilogy. This fight is for the Interim Welterweight Title, so will be 5 rounds. Interesting that I don’t see Pat in Hughes corner, which I think might be the first time besides the one that was on his IFL fight date that he was pissed about.
Rd 1. Good defense from GSP to avoid the takedown attempt from Hughes. GSP goes for a superman punch but Hughes goes under and attempts a takedown but is blocked by GSP. GSP gets a takedown on Hughes some good GnP from GSP but Hughes moving to respond. A good bit of movement on the ground even without many strikes. Hughes gets to the side on the cage and takes some decent punches and then some elbows trying to scramble. GSP does multiple slams trying to get Matt to let go of his guard and get some room. He scrambles and GSP gets his back and just about gets an armbar. Dominant from GSP, I go 10-8 GSP but I bet the judges go 10-9.
Rd 2. They clinch and another takedown from GSP. He gets into half guard easy, but Hughes is able to get to full guard. GSP passes to half-guard but back to full and a good elbow from Hughes that GSP responds with an elbow of his own. More of a fight for position but constant movement and GSP is able to get to twister side control and then mounts and takes his back. Good scramble and eventually Hughes is able to get up and tries a takedown but it’s blocked. Then they clinch exchange knees and a big takedown from GSP. GSP gets an armbar and submits at the very end of the round. What an exhibition from GSP.
TL;DR Woah, now that wasn’t a close fight but what a fucking showcase from GSP, he outwrestled the wrestler with ease.
I’d give this 3.5/5 The Silva/Liddell fight lived up to everything I wanted it to. Clementi/Guillard was a good show starter. Machida may be a little boring for a real casual person but seeing his precision and planning in action was really cool. Sanchez/Soa was a bore and completely skippable. GSP/Hughes wasn’t competitive but just wow, GSP looked above anything I’ve seen of him up to this point. He fought a beautiful fight.
Honestly, I didn't have too many questions about this card, but I would like to know how people scored the Liddell/Silva fight. Another question I have is it seems that the refs stand guys up and reset them a lot more during this time, is that something that the UFC tried to change or was it just a natural progression? Like with the Machida fight he wasn't necessarily throwing strikes or subs but you can see him kind of moving his positioning around to work where he wanted to be to do something.
Hope you guys enjoy the write-up and if you have any suggestions I'd love to hear them as I'd like to make this a continual thing.
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