Real quick before I get into my next steps of my FX Journey, id like to say thank you to all the people who commented on my last post! All of the tips I got were really eye-opening and introduced me to different parts of FX trading that I didn't even know existed. So thank you so much, and I hope to get more interesting feedback from you guys in the future! Also Im going to probably change my writing frequency from daily to biweekly. I think writing about every little trade is not going to be as beneficial to me as writing about my overall progress at certain points throughout the week. I started this trading day out by learning up on order flow. A whole bunch of you guys suggested really interesting youtubers to watch, and I started with Mr. pip's series on order flow. After I finished up watching a few of his videos, I started to tweak my trading plan so that I could get in some chart time. I changed currency pair from EUUSD to the AUD/USD, the time frame from the 4 hour to the 1 hour, and my indicators from RSI, Stochastic, 2 SMAs and ADX to ATR, RSI, and Ichimoku Kinko Hyo. I also added a little fundamental analysis in my trading plan because I think that I am being far too reliant on my indicators. I planned to check the economic calendar and determine the general trend of the currency pairs that are strongly correlated to the AUD/USD before I began my chart analysis. In addition to all of my analysis, I tried to practice using the techniques I learned in Mr. Pip's videos and analyze the order flow of the chart. Even if my analysis of order flow is wrong, as long as I am getting practice I am learning. Eventhough I planned to use today to back-test indicators and find a solid new plan, I did not have enough time. I ended up getting on my demo account really late in the day, and started to force myself to enter a trade. Destructive habits like this could lead into some massive issues when I eventually get into live trading. To combat this harmful attitude specifically, I will restrict myself to trading on certain parts of the day (for example session overlaps, news releases, and earlier in the day). Despite this mistake I still continued with my trading strategy. I calculated all the currency correlations for AUS/USD using the past weeks economic data, and set my indicators in place. After checking the overall trend of the most strongly correlated pairs (Positive: EUUSD, GPB/USD, Negative: USD/CAD, USD/JPY) I started to analyze the order flow. All the correlated currencies, except for EUUSD, indicated that the AUD/USD would fall, while my order flow analysis indicated the opposite. Seeing as though I am extremely new to order flow, I dismissed this analysis, and ended up forcing a trade on the AUD/USD going short when my indicators seemed to line up correctly. I learned from last time that I should not alter or close my trade purely based on emotion, and to just wait till the market hits my stop loss or take profit. I included a trailing stop loss of 60 pips this time, but I have no evidence to base that number range on. The trade is currently open and I am down about 30 pips. Although I am not labeling this trade as a loser yet, I can definitely see a lot of holes in my trading strategy. The most obvious mistake in my eyes right now is my use of indicators. Currently all my trades are purely based on what my indicators say, and since I do not have any back-tested data to support the credibility of my indicators, it feels a lot like strategic gambling. Another issue is that I feel far too reliant on indicators alone. I think that if I can find ways to include various types of analysis efficiently and evenly in my trading plan I will become a much more skillful and well-rounded trader. In order to combat these two issues I will begin forming various types of trading strategies this weekend and back-test them all extensively. I also plan on researching more on price action, order flow, and Naked Forex. Once again any and all feedback is welcome. I am just beginning Forex, but it had been a huge passion of mine and I don't plan on stopping anytime soon.
Disclaimer: None of this is financial advice. I have no idea what I'm doing. Please do your own research or you will certainly lose money. I'm not a statistician, data scientist, well-seasoned trader, or anything else that would qualify me to make statements such as the below with any weight behind them. Take them for the incoherent ramblings that they are. TL;DR at the bottom for those not interested in the details. This is a bit of a novel, sorry about that. It was mostly for getting my own thoughts organized, but if even one person reads the whole thing I will feel incredibly accomplished.
Background
For those of you not familiar, please see the various threads on this trading system here. I can't take credit for this system, all glory goes to ParallaxFX! I wanted to see how effective this system was at H1 for a couple of reasons: 1) My current broker is TD Ameritrade - their Forex minimum is a mini lot, and I don't feel comfortable enough yet with the risk to trade mini lots on the higher timeframes(i.e. wider pip swings) that ParallaxFX's system uses, so I wanted to see if I could scale it down. 2) I'm fairly impatient, so I don't like to wait days and days with my capital tied up just to see if a trade is going to win or lose. This does mean it requires more active attention since you are checking for setups once an hour instead of once a day or every 4-6 hours, but the upside is that you trade more often this way so you end up winning or losing faster and moving onto the next trade. Spread does eat more of the trade this way, but I'll cover this in my data below - it ends up not being a problem. I looked at data from 6/11 to 7/3 on all pairs with a reasonable spread(pairs listed at bottom above the TL;DR). So this represents about 3-4 weeks' worth of trading. I used mark(mid) price charts. Spreadsheet link is below for anyone that's interested.
System Details
I'm pretty much using ParallaxFX's system textbook, but since there are a few options in his writeups, I'll include all the discretionary points here:
I'm using the stop entry version - so I wait for the price to trade beyond the confirmation candle(in the direction of my trade) before entering. I don't have any data to support this decision, but I've always preferred this method over retracement-limit entries. Maybe I just like the feeling of a higher winrate even though there can be greater R:R using a limit entry. Variety is the spice of life.
I put my stop loss right at the opposite edge of the confirmation candle. NOT at the edge of the 2-candle pattern that makes up the system. I'll get into this more below - not enough trades are saved to justify the wider stops. (Wider stop means less $ per pip won, assuming you still only risk 1%).
All my profit/loss statistics are based on a 1% risk per trade. Because 1 is real easy to multiply.
There are definitely some questionable trades in here, but I tried to make it as mechanical as possible for evaluation purposes. They do fit the definitions of the system, which is why I included them. You could probably improve the winrate by being more discretionary about your trades by looking at support/resistance or other techniques.
I didn't use MBB much for either entering trades, or as support/resistance indicators. Again, trying to be pretty mechanical here just for data collection purposes. Plus, we all make bad trading decisions now and then, so let's call it even.
As stated in the title, this is for H1 only. These results may very well not play out for other time frames - who knows, it may not even work on H1 starting this Monday. Forex is an unpredictable place.
I collected data to show efficacy of taking profit at three different levels: -61.8%, -100% and -161.8% fib levels described in the system using the passive trade management method(set it and forget it). I'll have more below about moving up stops and taking off portions of a position.
And now for the fun. Results!
Total Trades: 241
Raw Winrates:
TP at -61.8%: 177 out of 241: 73.44%
TP at -100%: 156 out of 241: 64.73%
TP at -161.8%: 121 out of 241: 50.20%
Adjusted Proft % (takes spread into account):
TP at -61.8%: 5.22%
TP at -100%: 23.55%
TP at -161.8%: 29.14%
As you can see, a higher target ended up with higher profit despite a much lower winrate. This is partially just how things work out with profit targets in general, but there's an additional point to consider in our case: the spread. Since we are trading on a lower timeframe, there is less overall price movement and thus the spread takes up a much larger percentage of the trade than it would if you were trading H4, Daily or Weekly charts. You can see exactly how much it accounts for each trade in my spreadsheet if you're interested. TDA does not have the best spreads, so you could probably improve these results with another broker. EDIT: I grabbed typical spreads from other brokers, and turns out while TDA is pretty competitive on majors, their minors/crosses are awful! IG beats them by 20-40% and Oanda beats them 30-60%! Using IG spreads for calculations increased profits considerably (another 5% on top) and Oanda spreads increased profits massively (another 15%!). Definitely going to be considering another broker than TDA for this strategy. Plus that'll allow me to trade micro-lots, so I can be more granular(and thus accurate) with my position sizing and compounding.
A Note on Spread
As you can see in the data, there were scenarios where the spread was 80% of the overall size of the trade(the size of the confirmation candle that you draw your fibonacci retracements over), which would obviously cut heavily into your profits. Removing any trades where the spread is more than 50% of the trade width improved profits slightly without removing many trades, but this is almost certainly just coincidence on a small sample size. Going below 40% and even down to 30% starts to cut out a lot of trades for the less-common pairs, but doesn't actually change overall profits at all(~1% either way). However, digging all the way down to 25% starts to really make some movement. Profit at the -161.8% TP level jumps up to 37.94% if you filter out anything with a spread that is more than 25% of the trade width! And this even keeps the sample size fairly large at 187 total trades. You can get your profits all the way up to 48.43% at the -161.8% TP level if you filter all the way down to only trades where spread is less than 15% of the trade width, however your sample size gets much smaller at that point(108 trades) so I'm not sure I would trust that as being accurate in the long term. Overall based on this data, I'm going to only take trades where the spread is less than 25% of the trade width. This may bias my trades more towards the majors, which would mean a lot more correlated trades as well(more on correlation below), but I think it is a reasonable precaution regardless.
Time of Day
Time of day had an interesting effect on trades. In a totally predictable fashion, a vast majority of setups occurred during the London and New York sessions: 5am-12pm Eastern. However, there was one outlier where there were many setups on the 11PM bar - and the winrate was about the same as the big hours in the London session. No idea why this hour in particular - anyone have any insight? That's smack in the middle of the Tokyo/Sydney overlap, not at the open or close of either. On many of the hour slices I have a feeling I'm just dealing with small number statistics here since I didn't have a lot of data when breaking it down by individual hours. But here it is anyway - for all TP levels, these three things showed up(all in Eastern time):
7pm-4am: Fewer setups, but winrate high.
5am-6am: Lots of setups, but but winrate low.
12pm-3pm Medium number of setups, but winrate low.
I don't have any reason to think these timeframes would maintain this behavior over the long term. They're almost certainly meaningless. EDIT: When you de-dup highly correlated trades, the number of trades in these timeframes really drops, so from this data there is no reason to think these timeframes would be any different than any others in terms of winrate. That being said, these time frames work out for me pretty well because I typically sleep 12am-7am Eastern time. So I automatically avoid the 5am-6am timeframe, and I'm awake for the majority of this system's setups.
Moving stops up to breakeven
This section goes against everything I know and have ever heard about trade management. Please someone find something wrong with my data. I'd love for someone to check my formulas, but I realize that's a pretty insane time commitment to ask of a bunch of strangers. Anyways. What I found was that for these trades moving stops up...basically at all...actually reduced the overall profitability. One of the data points I collected while charting was where the price retraced back to after hitting a certain milestone. i.e. once the price hit the -61.8% profit level, how far back did it retrace before hitting the -100% profit level(if at all)? And same goes for the -100% profit level - how far back did it retrace before hitting the -161.8% profit level(if at all)? Well, some complex excel formulas later and here's what the results appear to be. Emphasis on appears because I honestly don't believe it. I must have done something wrong here, but I've gone over it a hundred times and I can't find anything out of place.
Moving SL up to 0% when the price hits -61.8%, TP at -100%
Winrate: 46.4%
Adjusted Proft % (takes spread into account): 5.36%
Taking half position off at -61.8%, moving SL up to 0%, TP remaining half at -100%
Winrate: 65.97%
Adjusted Proft % (takes spread into account): -1.01% (yes, a net loss)
Now, you might think exactly what I did when looking at these numbers: oof, the spread killed us there right? Because even when you move your SL to 0%, you still end up paying the spread, so it's not truly "breakeven". And because we are trading on a lower timeframe, the spread can be pretty hefty right? Well even when I manually modified the data so that the spread wasn't subtracted(i.e. "Breakeven" was truly +/- 0), things don't look a whole lot better, and still way worse than the passive trade management method of leaving your stops in place and letting it run. And that isn't even a realistic scenario because to adjust out the spread you'd have to move your stoploss inside the candle edge by at least the spread amount, meaning it would almost certainly be triggered more often than in the data I collected(which was purely based on the fib levels and mark price). Regardless, here are the numbers for that scenario:
Moving SL up to 0% when the price hits -61.8%, TP at -100%
Winrate(breakeven doesn't count as a win): 46.4%
Adjusted Proft % (takes spread into account): 17.97%
Taking half position off at -61.8%, moving SL up to 0%, TP remaining half at -100%
Winrate(breakeven doesn't count as a win): 65.97%
Adjusted Proft % (takes spread into account): 11.60%
From a literal standpoint, what I see behind this behavior is that 44 of the 69 breakeven trades(65%!) ended up being profitable to -100% after retracing deeply(but not to the original SL level), which greatly helped offset the purely losing trades better than the partial profit taken at -61.8%. And 36 went all the way back to -161.8% after a deep retracement without hitting the original SL. Anyone have any insight into this? Is this a problem with just not enough data? It seems like enough trades that a pattern should emerge, but again I'm no expert. I also briefly looked at moving stops to other lower levels (78.6%, 61.8%, 50%, 38.2%, 23.6%), but that didn't improve things any. No hard data to share as I only took a quick look - and I still might have done something wrong overall. The data is there to infer other strategies if anyone would like to dig in deep(more explanation on the spreadsheet below). I didn't do other combinations because the formulas got pretty complicated and I had already answered all the questions I was looking to answer.
2-Candle vs Confirmation Candle Stops
Another interesting point is that the original system has the SL level(for stop entries) just at the outer edge of the 2-candle pattern that makes up the system. Out of pure laziness, I set up my stops just based on the confirmation candle. And as it turns out, that is much a much better way to go about it. Of the 60 purely losing trades, only 9 of them(15%) would go on to be winners with stops on the 2-candle formation. Certainly not enough to justify the extra loss and/or reduced profits you are exposing yourself to in every single other trade by setting a wider SL. Oddly, in every single scenario where the wider stop did save the trade, it ended up going all the way to the -161.8% profit level. Still, not nearly worth it.
Correlated Trades
As I've said many times now, I'm really not qualified to be doing an analysis like this. This section in particular. Looking at shared currency among the pairs traded, 74 of the trades are correlated. Quite a large group, but it makes sense considering the sort of moves we're looking for with this system. This means you are opening yourself up to more risk if you were to trade on every signal since you are technically trading with the same underlying sentiment on each different pair. For example, GBP/USD and AUD/USD moving together almost certainly means it's due to USD moving both pairs, rather than GBP and AUD both moving the same size and direction coincidentally at the same time. So if you were to trade both signals, you would very likely win or lose both trades - meaning you are actually risking double what you'd normally risk(unless you halve both positions which can be a good option, and is discussed in ParallaxFX's posts and in various other places that go over pair correlation. I won't go into detail about those strategies here). Interestingly though, 17 of those apparently correlated trades ended up with different wins/losses. Also, looking only at trades that were correlated, winrate is 83%/70%/55% (for the three TP levels). Does this give some indication that the same signal on multiple pairs means the signal is stronger? That there's some strong underlying sentiment driving it? Or is it just a matter of too small a sample size? The winrate isn't really much higher than the overall winrates, so that makes me doubt it is statistically significant. One more funny tidbit: EUCAD netted the lowest overall winrate: 30% to even the -61.8% TP level on 10 trades. Seems like that is just a coincidence and not enough data, but dang that's a sucky losing streak. EDIT: WOW I spent some time removing correlated trades manually and it changed the results quite a bit. Some thoughts on this below the results. These numbers also include the other "What I will trade" filters. I added a new worksheet to my data to show what I ended up picking.
Total Trades: 75
Raw Winrates:
TP at -61.8%: 84.00%
TP at -100%: 73.33%
TP at -161.8%: 60.00%
Moving SL up to 0% when the price hits -61.8%, TP at -100%: 53.33%
Taking half position off at -61.8%, moving SL up to 0%, TP remaining half at -100%: 53.33% (yes, oddly the exact same winrate. but different trades/profits)
Adjusted Proft % (takes spread into account):
TP at -61.8%: 18.13%
TP at -100%: 26.20%
TP at -161.8%: 34.01%
Moving SL up to 0% when the price hits -61.8%, TP at -100%: 19.20%
Taking half position off at -61.8%, moving SL up to 0%, TP remaining half at -100%: 17.29%
To do this, I removed correlated trades - typically by choosing those whose spread had a lower % of the trade width since that's objective and something I can see ahead of time. Obviously I'd like to only keep the winning trades, but I won't know that during the trade. This did reduce the overall sample size down to a level that I wouldn't otherwise consider to be big enough, but since the results are generally consistent with the overall dataset, I'm not going to worry about it too much. I may also use more discretionary methods(support/resistance, quality of indecision/confirmation candles, news/sentiment for the pairs involved, etc) to filter out correlated trades in the future. But as I've said before I'm going for a pretty mechanical system. This brought the 3 TP levels and even the breakeven strategies much closer together in overall profit. It muted the profit from the high R:R strategies and boosted the profit from the low R:R strategies. This tells me pair correlation was skewing my data quite a bit, so I'm glad I dug in a little deeper. Fortunately my original conclusion to use the -161.8 TP level with static stops is still the winner by a good bit, so it doesn't end up changing my actions. There were a few times where MANY (6-8) correlated pairs all came up at the same time, so it'd be a crapshoot to an extent. And the data showed this - often then won/lost together, but sometimes they did not. As an arbitrary rule, the more correlations, the more trades I did end up taking(and thus risking). For example if there were 3-5 correlations, I might take the 2 "best" trades given my criteria above. 5+ setups and I might take the best 3 trades, even if the pairs are somewhat correlated. I have no true data to back this up, but to illustrate using one example: if AUD/JPY, AUD/USD, CAD/JPY, USD/CAD all set up at the same time (as they did, along with a few other pairs on 6/19/20 9:00 AM), can you really say that those are all the same underlying movement? There are correlations between the different correlations, and trying to filter for that seems rough. Although maybe this is a known thing, I'm still pretty green to Forex - someone please enlighten me if so! I might have to look into this more statistically, but it would be pretty complex to analyze quantitatively, so for now I'm going with my gut and just taking a few of the "best" trades out of the handful. Overall, I'm really glad I went further on this. The boosting of the B/E strategies makes me trust my calculations on those more since they aren't so far from the passive management like they were with the raw data, and that really had me wondering what I did wrong.
What I will trade
Putting all this together, I am going to attempt to trade the following(demo for a bit to make sure I have the hang of it, then for keeps):
"System Details" I described above.
TP at -161.8%
Static SL at opposite side of confirmation candle - I won't move stops up to breakeven.
Trade only 7am-11am and 4pm-11pm signals.
Nothing where spread is more than 25% of trade width.
Looking at the data for these rules, test results are:
Winrate: 58.19%
Adjusted Proft % (takes spread into account): 47.43%
I'll be sure to let everyone know how it goes!
Other Technical Details
ATR is only slightly elevated in this date range from historical levels, so this should fairly closely represent reality even after the COVID volatility leaves the scalpers sad and alone.
The sample size is much too small for anything really meaningful when you slice by hour or pair. I wasn't particularly looking to test a specific pair here - just the system overall as if you were going to trade it on all pairs with a reasonable spread.
Raw Data
Here's the spreadsheet for anyone that'd like it. (EDIT: Updated some of the setups from the last few days that have fully played out now. I also noticed a few typos, but nothing major that would change the overall outcomes. Regardless, I am currently reviewing every trade to ensure they are accurate.UPDATE: Finally all done. Very few corrections, no change to results.) I have some explanatory notes below to help everyone else understand the spiraled labyrinth of a mind that put the spreadsheet together.
I'm on the East Coast in the US, so the timestamps are Eastern time.
Time stamp is from the confirmation candle, not the indecision candle. So 7am would mean the indecision candle was 6:00-6:59 and the confirmation candle is 7:00-7:59 and you'd put in your order at 8:00.
I found a couple AM/PM typos as I was reviewing the data, so let me know if a trade doesn't make sense and I'll correct it.
Insanely detailed spreadsheet notes
For you real nerds out there. Here's an explanation of what each column means:
Pair - duh
Date/Time - Eastern time, confirmation candle as stated above
Win to -61.8%? - whether the trade made it to the -61.8% TP level before it hit the original SL.
Win to -100%? - whether the trade made it to the -100% TP level before it hit the original SL.
Win to -161.8%? - whether the trade made it to the -161.8% TP level before it hit the original SL.
Retracement level between -61.8% and -100% - how deep the price retraced after hitting -61.8%, but before hitting -100%. Be careful to look for the negative signs, it's easy to mix them up. Using the fib% levels defined in ParallaxFX's original thread. A plain hyphen "-" means it did not retrace, but rather went straight through -61.8% to -100%. Positive 100 means it hit the original SL.
Retracement level between -100% and -161.8% - how deep the price retraced after hitting -100%, but before hitting -161.8%. Be careful to look for the negative signs, it's easy to mix them up. Using the fib% levels defined in ParallaxFX's original thread. A plain hyphen "-" means it did not retrace, but rather went straight through -100% to -161.8%. Positive 100 means it hit the original SL.
Trade Width(Pips) - the size of the confirmation candle, and thus the "width" of your trade on which to determine position size, draw fib levels, etc.
Loser saved by 2 candle stop? - for all losing trades, whether or not the 2-candle stop loss would have saved the trade and how far it ended up getting if so. "No" means it didn't save it, N/A means it wasn't a losing trade so it's not relevant.
Spread(ThinkorSwim) - these are typical spreads for these pairs on ToS.
Spread % of Width - How big is the spread compared to the trade width? Not used in any calculations, but interesting nonetheless.
True Risk(Trade Width + Spread) - I set my SL at the opposite side of the confirmation candle knowing that I'm actually exposing myself to slightly more risk because of the spread(stop order = market order when submitted, so you pay the spread). So this tells you how many pips you are actually risking despite the Trade Width. I prefer this over setting the stop inside from the edge of the candle because some pairs have a wide spread that would mess with the system overall. But also many, many of these trades retraced very nearly to the edge of the confirmation candle, before ending up nicely profitable. If you keep your risk per trade at 1%, you're talking a true risk of, at most, 1.25% (in worst-case scenarios with the spread being 25% of the trade width as I am going with above).
Win or Loss in %(1% risk) including spread TP -61.8% - not going to go into huge detail, see the spreadsheet for calculations if you want. But, in a nutshell, if the trade was a win to 61.8%, it returns a positive # based on 61.8% of the trade width, minus the spread. Otherwise, it returns the True Risk as a negative. Both normalized to the 1% risk you started with.
Win or Loss in %(1% risk) including spread TP -100% - same as the last, but 100% of Trade Width.
Win or Loss in %(1% risk) including spread TP -161.8% - same as the last, but 161.8% of Trade Width.
Win or Loss in %(1% risk) including spread TP -100%, and move SL to breakeven at 61.8% - uses the retracement level columns to calculate profit/loss the same as the last few columns, but assuming you moved SL to 0% fib level after price hit -61.8%. Then full TP at 100%.
Win or Loss in %(1% risk) including spread take off half of position at -61.8%, move SL to breakeven, TP 100% - uses the retracement level columns to calculate profit/loss the same as the last few columns, but assuming you took of half the position and moved SL to 0% fib level after price hit -61.8%. Then TP the remaining half at 100%.
Overall Growth(-161.8% TP, 1% Risk) - pretty straightforward. Assuming you risked 1% on each trade, what the overall growth level would be chronologically(spreadsheet is sorted by date).
Pairs
AUD/CAD
AUD/CHF
AUD/JPY
AUD/NZD
AUD/USD
CAD/CHF
CAD/JPY
CHF/JPY
EUAUD
EUCAD
EUCHF
EUGBP
EUJPY
EUNZD
EUUSD
GBP/AUD
GBP/CAD
GBP/CHF
GBP/JPY
GBP/NZD
GBP/USD
NZD/CAD
NZD/CHF
NZD/JPY
NZD/USD
USD/CAD
USD/CHF
USD/JPY
TL;DR
Based on the reasonable rules I discovered in this backtest:
Date range: 6/11-7/3
Winrate: 58.19%
Adjusted Proft % (takes spread into account): 47.43%
Demo Trading Results
Since this post, I started demo trading this system assuming a 5k capital base and risking ~1% per trade. I've added the details to my spreadsheet for anyone interested. The results are pretty similar to the backtest when you consider real-life conditions/timing are a bit different. I missed some trades due to life(work, out of the house, etc), so that brought my total # of trades and thus overall profit down, but the winrate is nearly identical. I also closed a few trades early due to various reasons(not liking the price action, seeing support/resistance emerge, etc). A quick note is that TD's paper trade system fills at the mid price for both stop and limit orders, so I had to subtract the spread from the raw trade values to get the true profit/loss amount for each trade. I'm heading out of town next week, then after that it'll be time to take this sucker live!
86 Trades
Date range: 7/9-7/30
Winrate: 52.32%
Adjusted Proft % (takes spread into account): 20.73%
Starting Balance: $5,000
Ending Balance: $6,036.51
Live Trading Results
I started live-trading this system on 8/10, and almost immediately had a string of losses much longer than either my backtest or demo period. Murphy's law huh? Anyways, that has me spooked so I'm doing a longer backtest before I start risking more real money. It's going to take me a little while due to the volume of trades, but I'll likely make a new post once I feel comfortable with that and start live trading again.
TODAY’S US DOLLAR USD WEAKNESS AND LIVE FOREX TRADING SIGNALS
Today in the main session forex trading the USD was weak on all pairs in this currency group. This drove strong price movements during the main trading session. Images of the live forex trading signals from The Forex Heatmap® and price chart movement for these pairs is shown below. The NZD/USD moved higher on the H4 time frame and this pair is breaking one resistance level. It has additional upside to the 0.6770 resistance area. The AUD/USD also moved higher on the H4 time frame. It has more potential to the 0.7315 resistance area. These live currency trading signals and trend based trading plans for 28 pairs can be found on our website at Forexearlywarning.com. See Link Below
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Former EMT, jail psych/med tech, security guard. Current farmer, day trader, hospital psych/med tech, and gun owner. AMA!
• I'm a (mostly hobby) farmer - I live on a farm for rice, local & foreign fruits, tomatoes, numerous different types of berries, mushrooms from all over the world, bees, eggs of chicken + quail + pheasant, and goats for milk, soap & wool. • We have 2 guard llamas (1 for the birds, 1 for the goats) and 6 dogs (2 German shepherds, 1 great pyrenees, 1 komondor, 1 mangal, and 1 boxer) • I day trade in FOREX & cryptocurrencies - for cryptos, I'm active in bitcoin, ethereum, litecoin, XRP, dogecoin, and Monero. For FOREX, AUD/USD, AUD/GBP, GBP/USD, JPY/CAN, CAN/USD, JPY/CHF, CHF/USD, and EUUSD. I also play online poker and • I used to be an EMT with the emergency ambulance service for a bit. I got that license quickly, and did that up until I finished the rest of my college (2 ½ years) • When I was 16 & 17, I was one of 4 security guards (on one shift) for a very rural truck stop • When I finished my college and got my psych/med license, I worked at first in a jail while I was on my probationary period. • After working in the jail, I work where I currently do at a psychiatric hospital for adolescents in the sex offenders unit. I've recently also gotten licensed as a teachers assistant so I can help school there. • I own a 12 gauge shotgun and revolver legally in a country where guns are mostly illegal. Mine are legal because I'm specifically registered, and my application was approved because I'm a farmer that has a big predator issue. (Feral dogs, snakes, lynx)
The Reserve Bank of Australia is thought unlikely to cut rates, but is likely to sound dovish
Australian growth figures may well disappoint given business investment weakness
Bullish trade headlines might negate both and boost theAussie, but they’re unpredictable
Find out what retail foreign exchange traders make of theAustralian Dollar’s prospects right now, in real time, at theDailyFX Sentiment Page In the coming week Australian Dollar markets might just be able to look past the US-China trade story, at least for a while, as they contemplate a packed period of local economic news. Whether this will be good news for the currency’s bulls, however, is a very open question. Out on front of course will be Tuesday’s monetary policy decision from the Reserve Bank of Australia. Market positioning is at present quite emphatic that no move is coming, and the Official Cash Rate will remain at its record, 0.75% low once the central bank’s deliberations are over. However, the RBA itself conceded in the minutes of its last meeting that the case for an interest rate cut could be made then, an admission which knocked the Aussie earlier this month. Given that little has clearly changed for the better since, the chance of a cut on Tuesday must still be ‘live’ even given those market doubts.
Posted this on scams as well but maybe folks around here can help me out. Also, I don't know how to cross post on mobile. Sorry. TLDR: Our mom lost over $3,000 in a trading app called UMarkets. We suspect it might be a scam so we want to find out if we can recover the funds. Update: I'd like to thank everyone who commented on this thread. You have all been very helpful. I will try later to reply to each of the comments here. But first, I'd like to clarify a few things. A couple of hours before I made this post yesterday, I finally mustered the courage to ask our mom what she was up to. Months earlier, she had ask one of our sisters to print a highly suspect document about some money she owed in some offshore bank in Belize. That rang off alarm bells among my sisters and me, unfortunately we kept tiptoeing about it. That Saturday morning, my sister told me about the app that our mom has on her tablet, the UMarkets app. So when she came home from a PTA meeting, I asked her about the document. That's when she told me everything and how she lost her money. It was more of a heart-to-heart talk and I really just offered a listening ear. She just talked freely and truthfully about everything that happened. I warned her that her UMarkets investment might be a scam but I told her that I'll look into it further. I assured her that everything will be alright even if there was no chance of recovering the money she put in. I guess overall she was glad to be able to get this off her chest. Apparently it's been bothering her since the beginning of this year. I told her not to put any money into the app and to stop contacting Marcus. He was still trying to convince her to buy Netflix stocks or trade other commodities like oil. But anyway, after our conversation, I decided to post here on Reddit to ask around and get any leads. I really feel sorry for our mom. She really wants to make money on her own so much that it lead her to this. I guess deep down she just wants a bit of control over her life. She's a house-wife and our dad doesn't let her do anything that much. She has kept everything about this a secret from our dad. This Sunday morning, I told her that after a bit of research, I can say with 100% certainty that the whole UMarkets debacle was a scam and there was no chance of getting the money back. She was still a bit in denial. We told her the only was forward was to block her credit cards, talk to someone in the bank, and try to report the incident to the NBI's cyber crime division. So that's the end of my update.
Sorry if I sound incoherent. I just only found out about this a few minutes ago when we confronted our mother about suspicious transactions she's making. For some background, we live in the Philippines. My mom isn't fluent in English and she did not finish college. She isn't financially literate and to be honest, I'm not really well-versed in investing as well. She's a stay-at-home wife and my sisters and I still live with her and our dad. Anyway, here's a timeline of the events. Last year September, our mom might have seen an ad on Facebook or saw a spam comment so she got interested in investing her money. She somehow got in touch with a guy named Marcus Moreno, a guy who introduced himself as a stock broker based in the UK. He's Filipino so my mom and him often chat through Skype in Filipino. From my understanding he's the one who walked our mom through the whole process of buying and selling stocks on UMarkets. Around September 2018 she made an initial investment of USD 3,750. We don't have that kind of money so she used her credit card and pawned off her jewelry to pay for it. Her stock broker set her up to buy and sell currencies (USD, AUD, JPY if I remember correctly). Her initial investment got wiped out thid January 2019 because, according to Marcus, the yen dipped in value. Her account in UMarkets is blocked for now. This is where it all goes weird for me. I'm not sure if it's because I find it hard to understand the situation or of our mom is having a hard time explaining it. She says Marcus told her that if she wants her money back, she has to make another deposit of USD 1,000. If she doesn't do anything, the USD 3,750 will be lost forever. She googled UMarkets scam and managed to contact a website called MyChargeBack.com, which seems to me specializes in dealing with recovering money lost in forex scams, etc. In an email from the website, they want to redirect her to Dispute2.com, which I'll be looking into in a while. To be honest, I really don't know what to do or who to run to. I just wanna help our mom sort out this mess. I appreciate any help or advise that we can get.
As you may have read in the last Medium, referees of the new referral program are going to earn 25 CFT when they join the exchange. Let's all speculate and find what CFT is :D –– 200% speculation beyond this point, leveraged x100 –– CFT stands for Coss Fiat Token, the purpose of this token is to represent Fiat value on the exchange. The actual problem we're facing is the lack of liquidity on all Fiat pairs. Let's take ETH as an example: There are multiple ETH Fiat pairs: ETH/USD, ETH/EUR, ETH/GBP. The more the pairs the less liquidity we have. Why don't they merge all those pairs on only one pair ETH/CFT ?
"Da f*ck, I want to know how much I pay for ETH in my home country, not in CFT !"
Exactly, no one cares of CFT, and that's why you shouldn't even see it. Every user in the world will choose (or will have it auto assigned) his currency: someone living in Europe will have EUR displayed and someone in the USA will have USD displayed, but also someone living in India will have Indian Rupee displayed.
"1 CFT = 1 EUR = 1 USD ???"
No, the CFT will only be a stable coin, its rate will depend on your home currency based on Forex prices. For example we could have 10 CFT = 10 USD = 8.82 EUR etc. Positive impact: – Liquidity will increase a lot on Fiat pairs (now and especially when we get more customers trading as liquidity brings traders and traders brings liquidity). – Scalable model to integrate many countries: "I'm from xxxx country, there is not any market in my home currecny, why can't I trade Fiat. Help?". If the conversion is made on client side, Coss can integrate a lot of countries, lot of currencies with ease (as long as they can receive and send Fiat through banks at some point). – Absolutely needed for the POS (Point Of Sale) we're waiting for something around Q2 2019: if a little shop in Australia want to integrate Coss solution to accept payments in crypto, they shouldn't have to accept USD nor EUR, they should get AUD directly, same for any shop in any country around the world. Customer pays in BTC, gets automatically converted to CFT and then AUD on client side. Negative impact / Concerns: – Less opportunities to make arbitrages on Coss through different Fiat pairs (a little bit less volume). – Probably not the possibility to own more than one Fiat currency at the same time (in reality you would hold them all). – Your balance might change over time as prices on Forex moves, meaning your 132 CFT might be worth 132$ at some point and 131.53$ one day after, people will have to get used to that. – Can create some confusion to some users, especially as websites like Coinmarketcap wouldn't know how to classify the prices, as CFT wouldn't be used somewhere else (at least for some time). – Fees might increase as some conversions will be needed depending on the home country of the users (people might deposit a lot of USD and others withdrawing a lot of EUR, how would Coss manage that as it might become a real threat over time if the total CFT market cap grows to 10-50M$ for example, the model needs to be really solid. – How would it be managed on the API, would people got the prices in Fiat like on the exchange, or would they get the order books in CFT and would need to do their own conversions depending on the currency they want to use (as a personal user of the API, it seems that this would need to be considered). Other points: – Even if Coss make a promotion on it, CFT needs to be backed by real Fiat, even if 25 CFT is probably "only" 2.5-10$, it needs to be paid by someone, if not it's a Ponzi scheme obviously. That means Coss Ltd has to pay for those tokens, and I guess they do have an acquisition price per customer in mind, so this is not something I'm really afraid off, but very important for long term viability of the Fiat model. – Wouldn't be a bad thing to give Fiat to people if they do their KYC, they would at least be able to test the exchange and try trading crypto before even having to send anything. Now it's your turn to speculate, hope you enjoyed the ride ;)
TLDR: Our mom lost over $3,000 in a trading app called UMarkets. We suspect it might be a scam so we want to find out if we can recover the funds. Sorry if I sound incoherent. I just only found out about this a few minutes ago when we confronted our mother about suspicious transactions she's making. For some background, we live in the Philippines. My mom isn't fluent in English and she did not finish college. She isn't financially literate and to be honest, I'm not really well-versed in investing as well. She's a stay-at-home wife and my sisters and I still live with her and our dad. Anyway, here's a timeline of the events. Last year September, our mom might have seen an ad on Facebook or saw a spam comment so she got interested in investing her money. She somehow got in touch with a guy named Marcus Moreno, a guy who introduced himself as a stock broker based in the UK. He's Filipino so my mom and him often chat through Skype in Filipino. From my understanding he's the one who walked our mom through the whole process of buying and selling stocks on UMarkets. Around September 2018 she made an initial investment of USD 3,750. We don't have that kind of money so she used her credit card and pawned off her jewelry to pay for it. Her stock broker set her up to buy and sell currencies (USD, AUD, JPY if I remember correctly). Her initial investment got wiped out thid January 2019 because, according to Marcus, the yen dipped in value. Her account in UMarkets is blocked for now. This is where it all goes weird for me. I'm not sure if it's because I find it hard to understand the situation or of our mom is having a hard time explaining it. She says Marcus told her that if she wants her money back, she has to make another deposit of USD 1,000. If she doesn't do anything, the USD 3,750 will be lost forever. She googled UMarkets scam and managed to contact a website called MyChargeBack.com, which seems to me specializes in dealing with recovering money lost in forex scams, etc. In an email from the website, they want to redirect her to Dispute2.com, which I'll be looking into in a while. To be honest, I really don't know what to do or who to run to. I just wanna help our mom sort out this mess. I appreciate any help or advise that we can get.
Need help on deciding my forex account’s base currency
Hey I’m a 21M from Australia and I have 5k-10k AUD, 5K USD, 2k GBP and 6-7k EUR that I’m looking to start out with (I’ve been traveling and never converted my money back). I’ve been trading forex on a demo account for a few months and I’m ready to create a live account. I have a multi-currency bank account with my local bank so it would be possible to deposit/withdraw with it and wouldn’t need to instantly convert it at withdraw. I have a job in Australia and earn 5-6k AUD p/m so I don’t need the profits from forex and would probably use it to buy stocks (NASDAQ and NYSE so would need USD). Since I have quite a few currencies to fund my live account with, I was just wondering which one would be more beneficial to use in my situation and why. Here is what I’m roughly thinking. AUD has been dropping and has been dropping for the last 3-4 years due to mining industry being shut down (mining is/was the main income of Australia). So I feel AUD is likely going to keep falling. Plus, Australia has very little going for it in terms of economy. Brexit has killed GBP. GBP is being under siege by the EU leaders by trying to make it as difficult for Britain as possible with the trade rules and taxes. And it seems like people would need to have a British Passport to stay in Britain and work in Britain so millions of working professionals will be forced out of the country. So it seems like a lot of Britain based businesses would be hurt because of it. Since USD is considered to be the global currency and their economy seems to continuously bounce back after the collapse of the housing market, 911, etc. It seems to me that USD may be the safest currency to fund my forex account with since its unlikely to lose much of its value over a long period of time. Europe is in a pretty crappy situation with their ‘open boarders’ being flooded by illegal refugees. I don’t know much about Europe’s politics and incomes etc. (which is a shame because I’m from Europe) but from what little I know, the big economy leaders in Europe are Germany, France and Britain Netherlands, Sweden etc. And now due to Britain exiting the EU it seems like Europe is going to be left with a lot of poorer countries with poor economy. So this whole Brexit and migrant crisis is a big turn off for me from Europe and the Euro in general. TL;DR: From Australia, have AUD, USD, GBP and EUR left from travel/work and ready to fund my forex account. Not sure if I’m going to stay in Australia, but not sure where I’d move. Which currency would hold its value strongest over time. And which base currency should I use?
Several Questions about trading in different sessions. London, US and Asian market
Is it normal for US forex traders (EST) to start trading at London session? I am also curious to how you balance your life if you were to start at 3:00am???? My last series of questions are at the bottom. I live in the EST time zone and i'm starting to reach a point where the US session does not provide enough sustained volatility to trade throughout the entire day. You could best describe my market behavior as a scalper on the 5min time frame. my favorite pairing to trade are the Euro/USD and USD/CAD (1hr time frame). I normally trade between 7:00am - 11:00pm. I enter the majority of my positions during 7:00 am - 11:00am. I look to exit ALL of my positions by 2:00pm. On 2:00pm news events i trade till 5:00pm. (there are exceptions to these time frames but this is a standard day for me) I rest between 2:00pm to 6:30pm. I start retrading the Asian session (euro/usd) at 7:00pm and end at 11:00pm. I probably enter and close 2 trades on average. 3 at most. On some occasions none. funny thing is i was considering quitting the Asian session and China happened... it kind of revitalized my willpower to make this work... I do most of my journal writing and trade logging during this time period. Asian session is boring as hell. I don't normally trade the JPY or AUD pairings so i'm guessing this contributes to it. There are some days i ignore the Asian Session altogether and do my logging/journal-ing after 2:00pm. I like having this option once in awhile when i want to take a break. What can i do differently to make Asian session more productive? Am i just a london session trader? Do i need to start branching out to different pairs? I'm starting to think it might be more efficient and productive for me to trade between 3:00 am to 1:00pm EST. I'll skip Asian session but my circadian rhythm will be wack. I do not want to start going to bed at 8:00pm...
Binary Matrix Pro Review - Is It Worth or Scam!! Honest Review on Binary Matrix Pro 2015
Binary Matrix Pro Review A Binary Options Signal Software That Can Net You Up To $1000…! Wow, Does Such A Thing Honestly Exist…? When it comes to trading and making real, sustained profits, then we could all do with a little helping hand. So when we came across Binary Matrix Pro, an options signal software that promises huge results, we have to admit that our interest was piqued. But it has to be said that when something appears to be too good to be true, then we've learned through bitter experience that it usually isn't the case. Hence a down and dirty look at exactly what this software is all about. And whether it’s worth you splashing out your hard earned cash on the program, or if you should simply look elsewhere. What do you get for your money? Right then. So what Binary Matrix Pro actually is, is a clever program that provides you with a live feed on 700-760 signals per day. It provides you with community reporting that shows the percentages of wins and losses in trades and outcomes on trades that cover the whole spectrum. Not only that, but it also gives you information on the investment amount, asset, execution date, rate, type, expiry date, expiry rate and payout. And for this information the company charges you, the user, one cent for each signal received. When you sign up, you get the following benefits:
item 1 Over 700 Signals Per Day: These are distributed throughout the three major trading sessions of European, US and Asian.
item 2 Personal Account Representative: If you choose this additional option). Here you get exactly what it suggests in the title – a personal representative to advise and help you with your trading. And this service is free until July 2014. After that it’s payable at a fee of $190 per month.
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AUD/CAD Technical Analysis. Potential for a long term set up.
AUD/CAD's recently caught my attention, for a few reasons. Going to attempt some fundies, and then look at some tech for setups. The Loonie
CAD has taken a thrashing in the last few months, making it the standout in terms of low correlation with just about anything. This is due mostly to Mark Carney's departure and the BOC changing its stance on interest rates from hawkish to neutral. This selling might be overdone.
This breakdown in correlation is a symptom of a much larger issue - the divorce of price action from risk trends. The weakening in CAD is mostly a result of large funds and corporates deleveraging, and getting rid of their Loonies as quickly as possible to avoid fallout from the above.
The Loonie is, however, correlated with oil prices
USOil, D1 http://i.imgur.com/AIUxB3f.png Looks pretty bullish to me. Any serious crisis could spark a lot of volatility, pushing price through the 110 ceiling. It's unlikely, granted, but it's difficult to see a drastic fall in oil demand any time soon. On the other hand, we have the Australian dollar
I'm very bearish, but I know the selling is overdone.
AUD/USD has lost a lot of its correlation with Gold lately, but it still correlates reasonably well to any decent commodities index:
https://www.tradingview.com/x/m6y9Vz7b/ That's not a great chart, but you can clearly see what's happening there. Generally in a downward trending range, which looks rather overbought at the moment. A break to the upside would be extremely bullish for the Aussie, but that's not very likely given rumours of slowing demand from China and a declining gold price. I know there are a few gold bugs lurking in this sub who are going to argue with me, but I'm pretty bearish on Gold as well.
I did a detailed analysis on AUD/USD on ForexLive, which explains why I'm so bearish. I'd love to hear your opinions
So in a nutshell my bias could be summed up as neutral to bullish CAD, neutral to bearish AUD. Here's the AUD/CAD daily: http://i.imgur.com/y5acVLB.png The top pink rectangle is an absolutely pivotal supply/demand area that has long since been breached. We're currently within a downward channel (much cleaner than AUD/USD's) after failing above the 50% retracement of the year's decline and an attempt to clear this zone. The orange line is the 100 Month moving average, but don't get too excited - it hasn't done a great job of providing major support or resistance for as long as I have chart data. The current channel, if it continues, will bring us very neatly to the rising line connecting the July 2010 and July 2013 lows, as well as a strong demand area, and roughly the 0.382 retracement of the move from 2010 to 2013. This area is the last chance for bulls. At the point marked with a green circle on my chart I'll be watching price action very carefully. It might take a few days to play out, or it could happen very quickly, but price will probably give us an indication of where it will be heading in 2014 if it gets to that level. There are two trades:
A bounce. I prefer this from a technical perspective, but it doesn't align with my fundamental bias. I'll trade what I see though and if a spike low is formed around this area I will enter long with a stop below that spike, and targeting 0.9700, parity and 1.0500.
A break of the 0.9250 area and retest and failure at this level opens up a lot of downside targets - noted in green as fibonacci extensions. If this happens, the challenge will be judging if there is sufficient volatility to give the move continuation, and finding a suitable level to trade against. Downside targets are 0.900, 0.8800 and 0.8600
AUD USD - Live Forex Chart. The AUD USD forex chart below enables you to perform technical analysis on real time data. You can change timeframes and display settings on the menu located above the chart. If you like to view historical data, then use the zoom buttons that show up when you hover your mouse over the chart. AUD USD (Australian Dollar / US Dollar) The Australian Dollar and the US Dollar pair belong the Majors, a group of the most popular traded pairs in the world. This pair's popularity soared because traders were attracted to the interest rate differential of the pair. AUD/USD Live Quote. Live chart of Australian Dollar / US Dollar. AUD / USD Pivot , Support, Resistance. Euro / US Dollar Trends, Recommendations & News LiveCharts.Co.Uk AUDUSD Chart - Live Forex forex live chart and currency quotes. Calc Daily Charts News Pivots. About AUD. Australian Dollar v US Dollar is a highly traded forex pair which represents the strength of the USA versus Australia's currency. Trading in AUDUSD can be done at most big forex brokers, CFD providers and spread betting ... AUD/USD Forex Technical Analysis – Could Have Enough Momentum to Overtake .7210 Later Today Oct 09, 2020 AUD/USD Forex Technical Analysis – Main Trend Changes to Up on Trade Through .7209
![[#LIVE_STREAM] Dự báo Giá Vàng - Xu hướng Forex (27/07 - 31/07/2020): #Gold, GBP/USD, EUUSD, AUD/USD, USD/CAD MỜI BẠN CÙNG XEM: https://youtu.be/ZTwmunM2qF8](https://b.thumbs.redditmedia.com/LsNV1ebN6gJIlA5Fk4BOwotBswZmAn4A2Q1SiSYosEg.jpg "[#LIVE_STREAM] Dự báo Giá Vàng - Xu hướng Forex (27/07 - 31/07/2020): #Gold, GBP/USD, EUUSD, AUD/USD, USD/CAD MỜI BẠN CÙNG XEM: https://youtu.be/ZTwmunM2qF8")
