The start of the 2016 season was filled with injuries. In the 3rd game of the season, newly acquired free agent Al Horford suffered a concussion that sat him out from November 2nd until November 18th. The game after that, Jae Crowder suffered an ankle sprain that took him out until the 18th. Horford missed 9 games, Jae missed 8, and in total the team went 4-5 in that span. After Al and Jae returned to the lineup, the Celtics went 7-3 until Isaiah Thomas suffered a groin injury two weeks later. :eyes: That only put him out for 4 games where the team went 1-3. Shortly after, Avery Bradley went down with an achilles injury that sidelined him for 22 games. Despite the injury to a key starting guard, IT4 transformed into a superstar and carried the team. Isaiah’s national rise into stardom happened over the next 25 games. He changed from the plucky undersized guard into a lethal scoring assassin that played his best when it mattered. The Celtics went 18-6 and Isaiah led the way with insane efficiency and volume. In this span, he averaged 33 points, 3 rebounds, and 6.5 assists a game with shooting splits of .505/.421/.943 and an unreal TS% of .670. Isaiah was getting to the line nearly 9 times a game in this span and was still shooting nearly 10 3-pointers a game. He was lethal from all over the floor, scoring 40+ five times (44, 52, 41, 41, and 44 points) and 35+ six other times. He earned himself the nickname The King in the 4th as he shot teams out of the arena in crunch time after crunch time. At a point in mid-January, he was averaging 13.6 PPG in the 4th quarter including that time he dropped 29 of his 52 points in the 4th quarter against the Heat. The white-hot streak unoficially ended with four wins in the midst of a 7 game win streak. Isaiah dropped 37, 41, 44, and 38 points as he led the team to the All Star break with a record of 37-20. Things kept humming along after the All Star break. Avery Bradley came back, but Isaiah Thomas’ franchise record of 47 consecutive 20+ point games ended against the Hawks in late February. Almost every game the Celtics played in was close, coming down to crunch time in the 4th quarter. Isaiah Thomas and the rest of the team had learned how to operate in close, late games and it showed. The Celtics cruised into the playoffs on a 3 game winning streak, going 15-7 in their last 22 games, and grabbing the 1st seed in the Eastern Conference. They were to be matched up with the 8th seeded Chicago Bulls.
Playoffs
Eastern Conference 1st Round vs Chicago Bulls - Won in 6 Games Just a day before the Celtics tipped off for Game 1 of the 1st Round, they learned of the tragic death of Isaiah Thomas’ younger sister, Chyna. Support for Isaiah flooded in from around the league, as the news circulated. Despite the tough emotional toll, Isaiah Thomas suited up for the series. Game 1 was close and hard-fought throughout. As the teams went into the 4th, the game was tied but the role players on the Bulls defied the odds and played remarkably well on the road. The Celtics lost by 4 with Isaiah Thomas playing through the tragedy and dropping 33/6/6 on 10/18 FG (3/7 3PT, 10/12 FT). Game 2, Rondo turned the tables and morphed into what we know as “National TV Rondo.” He played 40 minutes, finishing with a statline of 11 points, 9 rebounds, 14 assists, and 5 steals with only 3 turnovers. He posted a game-high +24 and the series was looking pretty bad at this point. Rondo pretty much knew the playbook and had the Celtics figured out. The Bulls lead 2-0 and were headed home. Before game 3, news broke (no pun intended) that Rondo had broken his right thumb but was still trying to play Game 3. Rondo ultimately couldn’t make it back, Jimmy Butler looked hobbled, and the Celtics handled business in Chicago and finished the series at home in 6 games. Eastern Conference Semi-Finals vs Washington Wizards - Won in 7 Games Public opinion going into this series was that the teams were nearly equally matched. The Wizards had more talent in their starting 5, but the Celtics had the Wizards very outmatched in depth. The series went 7 games and showed how important home court advantage was in playoff basketball. Over the 7 games, the Celtics had an average margin of victory of 13.5 points and the Wizards were even better with 15.6 points. The Isaiah Thomas and John Wall match-up was what drove this series though. In game 1, Isaiah Thomas made a play on the pass from behind Porter when he took an elbow to the mouth. His tooth flew to the floor, he grabbed it, hit back-to-back 3 pointers, and finished the game with 33 points in a 12 point victory. Game 2, we saw what is dubbed The Tooth Game. After two days of dental surgery between Game 1 and Game 2, Isaiah Thomas took to the court and looked better than ever. In a game that went to overtime, Isaiah Thomas scored 29 of his career high 53 points in the 4th quarter and overtime! Home court told the story from here on out, the Wizards blowing the Celtics away in Washington in games 3 and 4, and the Celtics winning dominantly back in Boston for game 5. Game 6 was in Washington and the Celtics flipped the script, keeping it close late into the 4th quarter. With 7.7 seconds left, the Celtics were up 91-89 with the Wizards inbounding. John Wall ran from the right corner, getting the pass. Wall hit Bradley with two left hand dribble hesitations before pulling up in his face for the contested game winner. The Celtics took the series back home for Game 7, the Cleveland Cavaliers waiting for their Eastern Conference Finals opponent. The first half was close, Washington leading 55 to 53, but the Celtics broke it open in the second half. The hero of the night was Kelly Olynyk, who dropped 26 points, 14 of which came in the 4th quarter. Eastern Conference Finals - Lost in 5 Games We'll keep this one short for a reason. The Celtics were outmatched despite coming into the series with home court advantage. After getting routed at home for Games 1 and 2, Isaiah Thomas finally couldn’t play anymore. His hip was hampering his ability to be the Superstar scorer we knew he was. Rumors of him aggravating it after Game 6 in Washington surfaced and he sat out for what would be the end of his Boston Celtics career. The only game worth mentioning in this 4-1 series loss is Game 3. A Thomas-less Celtics team was going to Cleveland after suffering an embarrassing 44 point loss at home. At the start, this game looked like all the rest. At one point, the Cavaliers took a 21 point lead and even at halftime, the Celtics went in losing by 16 points. In the second half, we witnessed what Marcus Smart could be, as he led the comeback with his hustle, defense, and streaky 3 point shooting. This was topped off with Avery Bradley’s heart-stopping game winner. Although Bradley won the game, Smart was the star of the night, finishing the game with 27 points (8/14 FG, 7/10 3PT, 4/6 FT), 5 rebounds, 7 assists, 2 steals, and 1 block. The Celtics went on to lose the next two games pretty badly, but the team had exceeded expectations for the year. The fans were (mostly) satisfied and we moved on to the draft and free agency with high expectations.
Offseason
Key Trades
The Celtics 1st overall pick via () in the 16-17 Draft was traded to for the 3rd overall pick and the 2018 1st Round Draft pick. If the pick lands anywhere besides the 2-5 range, it instead becomes the 2019 1st Round pick, top 1 protected. If this doesn't convey, the pick will convey as 2019 1st Round pick.
Avery Bradley was traded to for Marcus Morris.
Isaiah Thomas, Jae Crowder, Ante Zizic, 2018 1st Round Pick, & 2020 2nd Round Pick were traded to for Kyrie Irving.
Betting lines put the Celtics around 55-27, but being realistic you need to look at the roster turnover. Al Horford is the only starter coming back from last year. Marcus Smart (now the longest tenured Celtic), Terry Rozier, and Jaylen Brown are the only other players from the Eastern Conference Finals 1st seed team returning. Despite the crazy increase in talent, most conservative estimates would put the Celtics somewhere around the 50 to 53 win mark.
Roster Breakdown
Starters
G: Kyrie Irving After requesting a trade from Cleveland, Kyrie Irving is looking to stake his claim as “The Man” of a Championship team. Since landing in Boston, he’s expressed interest in Brad Stevens’ motion offense and the Celtics team culture. Coming off a career season statistically, Uncle Drew is looking to take on the role of a more traditional point guard by showcasing his potentially hidden playmaking abilities. He’s got big shoes to fill after Isaiah Thomas and his 29 PPG left in the trade. Expectations:
Increase from his 25 PPG average last year. This team needs his scoring and he’ll need to show that he can consistently do that as a first option.
Stay efficient as a scorer. Finished at .580 TS% last year, but can hopefully push himself closer to the elites at .600 TS%.
Get to the line more. Kyrie only got to the line 4.6 times a game last year. As a 91% shooter, more free throws is better efficiency.
Less ball-stopping and more ball movement. As a secondary playmaker last season, Kyrie averaged just under 6 assists a game. As the true point of the team, Kyrie is expected to have a modest increase in assist numbers.
More consistent effort on defense. Brad Stevens loves having a hard-nosed defensive identity and Kyrie has shown that he is more than capable of that in his Finals appearances.
G/F: Jaylen Brown Coming off a modest but promising rookie season, Jaylen Brown is looking to capitalize his place as a key player of the future for this team. With Avery Bradley gone and Smart content to lead the bench, Jaylen is looking to be the starting shooting guard this season. The soon-to-be 21 year old spent all summer tightening his handles, honing in his jump shot, and building up strength to combine with his already elite athleticism. His motor is off the charts and he’s looking to become the lockdown defender this team lost last year. Expectations:
Defend the better of the two opposing guards. Jaylen will have to be the main defender as the starting shooting guard. He has the lateral quickness, legth, focus and hustle to do it.
Stay consistent as a shooter. Jaylen shot 34% from deep last year and his mechanics looked solid. He was especially good from the corner, shooting 43%. He needs to continue to hit those open looks to be even more dangerous when attacking.
Attack closeouts. Last year Jaylen struggled to attack closeouts due to his loose handles, but he’s spent a lot of the summer working on it. Evolving from a straight line driver to a true, deadly slasher takes handles and he can hopefully show signs of that. He’s already a capable finisher at the rim.
Start to operate as the ball handler in a pick and roll. We haven’t seen Jaylen do this much yet, but it’s something that he should start to work on. Being able to come off and shoot a mid-ringe off the dribble or handoff would do wonders to his offensive game and he’s shown flashes as a capable midrange scorer.
Use his athleticism. Jaylen needs to keep taking advantage of his natural bounce by attacking the rim hard. He needs to stay aggressive by trying to dunk on guys, but should continue to attempt acrobatic lay ups.
F: Gordon Hayward The Celtics managed to snag the prized free agent for another year, grabbing All Star Gordon Hayward for a max contract during the summer. After leaving the Jazz to reuinite with his former college coch in Boston, Gordon is looking to be the 1b (or 1a, depending on who you ask) to Kyrie Irving on a team with high expectations. He’s a complete player who is better than average in almost all facets of the game. Expectations:
Look for his shot more often. Gordon averaged 22 PPG last season, but in a potent offensive system that plays at a faster pace he should be looking to increase that number. He’s a good shooter all around and should be able to capitalize in a five-out spread system.
Operate in the post more. The Celtics offense will force a lot of switches and mismatches on the perimeter. Gordon needs to leverage his size to get better at posting up smaller defenders in the high and low post.
Facilitate more as a primary ball handler. Gordon will probably see a lot more work in the pick and roll as a ballhandler this season than last. His assist averages should go up and he is a more than capable passer.
Stay consistent on the defensive end. Playing in a great defensive system in Utah should help quell the possible shortcomings of a three wing system. His ability to switch onto bigger or smaller defenders is vital.
F: Marcus Morris Marcus Morris was acquired in a trade involving Avery Bradley in the offseason, and he’s looking to be one of the best “LeBron stoppers”out there. Expectations:
Make an impact as rebounder. Marcus Morris showed he was more than capable to pick up the slack on the glass when former teammate Andre Drummond was on the bench. He is a physical player and needs to utilize that when he’s in.
Look to move the ball more. As Zach Lowe put it, Morris sometimes goes into “Mini Melo” mode. Jab steps and isolation moves are things he likes to do but to integrate into the offense properly, he’ll need to stop that and swing the ball on the perimeter.
Improve spot up shooting. Morris is a decent 3 point shooter who had a down season, but he needs to keep on taking them when open. If he can increase from his career 3P% of .355 to something closer to .375, he’d open up a lot more of his midrange and post game.
Be able to play a small ball 5 in short stints. Stevens loves small lineups and Morris has the reboudning and physicality to test it. He’ll need to be able to defend physical players like LeBron and Draymond Green. He’ll also need to be versatile enough to do the same against real centers for a few minutes too.
C: Al Horford Coming off a personally great postseason, Al Horford is ready to direct the offense as the undercover playmaker and stretch 5. Expectations:
Continue to facilitate out of the high and low post. Al Horford averaged a career high 5 APG last season and was the catalyst to the fantastic ball movement whenever he was out there. Dribble handoffs and solid picks will open up every shooter and playmaker on the floor with him and he’ll find them every time.
Keep on shooting 3s. Horford has seriously rasied his volume from beyond the past few seasons and he’s hits them at a more than serviceable rate. The corners will be as open as ever this season so he should capitalize from out there when it’s open.
Be physical when working in the post offensively. Horford doesn’t draw many fouls, only shooting 2 a game last season. He gets his shot off and usually does it with minimal contact, but he should look to take it harder to the basket to help his FG% which suffered a bit last year.
Box out. Horford has never been an amazing rebounder, but he has times where he can do it. He needs to dedicate himself to boxing out the biggest guy on the court so his plethora of wings can swoop in for the actual rebound.
Bench
G: Marcus Smart Coming into the his contract season down 20 pounds with a fixed jumpshot (we’ll see), Marcus Smart is looking to be the tone setter off the bench. He personifies the defensive identity of the team with his versatility, communication, and skill. Expectations:
Improve his shooting. Smart shot an abysmal split of .359/.283/.812 and he wasn’t afraid to shoot. He has supposedly fixed his jumpshot over the off-season, so improvements into near league average splits would be huge. The hope is that he can shoot close to 40% from the field and maybe approach 33% from deep.
Facilitate as the main playmaker of a lineup. Smart has shown that he can handle and dish it in the halfcourt. He should operate a lot in the pick and roll, looking to the wings first before making a play on his own though.
Continue to be a lockdown defender. Down weight, Smart now has the quickness, strength, and versatility to switch onto many premiere wing players. He’s shown stints of guarding some small power forwards in the past and his bulldog mentality won’t stop him from doing that again and succeeding.
G/F: Jayson Tatum Jayson Tatum comes to the Celtics as a 3rd overall pick who has been compared to The Truth himself, Paul Pierce. He has isolation skills, decent shooting, and great length. Expectations:
Acquiring consistent NBA 3 point range. In practice,Tatum has shown that he is capable of hitting 3 pointers, winning a 3 point challenge between teammates more than once. Getting used to the length of NBA defenders will take some adjusting, but he should be able to shoot at least around league average by the end of the year.
Bulking up to be a more effective defender. Right now Tatum can be pushed around on the perimeter and in the post. He can make up for some of it with his great length, but if he wants to be average or better, he needs to get stronger.
C: Aron Baynes Aron Baynes, the Aussie center, came over in free agency, bringing some physicality and presence in the paint. Championship winner with Greg Popovich as his coach. Expectations:
Be the presence inside that the Celtics lacked last season. Baynes will be expected to be the primary rebounder and rim protector whenever he is on the court. He’ll match up with true centers when Horford is mismatched or out.
Stay consistent on midrange jump shots. Baynes is a pretty decent jump shooter from 10-16 feet. If he can do that, he’ll be more than serviceable on the offensive end.
Move the ball like he has in the Spurs system. He is a capable passer who makes the right play more often than not.
G: Terry Rozier Drafted two seasons ago with the 16th pick, Terry Rozier is looking to make the leap from mid-late bench guy to 7th man. His athleticism is the main draw, showing promise as a slasher, rebounder, and defender in the guard position. With more minutes coming his way in his third year, this should be the time to prove himself. Expectations:
Become a better finisher in the paint and at the rim. Terry is surprisingly athletic to those who don’t watch the team much. He has shown time and time again that he is more than capable of slashing to the rim, but that’s about where it ends. He struggled the past two seasons to finish what looked like relatively easy and open finishes after getting by his man on the perimeter.
Be the secondary playmaking guard when on the court. Terry will be working in the second unit primarily and this should give him plenty of playmaking responsibilities next to Smart. He tends to pound the ball, but his handle is good enough to make some plays for others.
Shore up the shooting splits. Terry took almost 2.5 3PA a game last year but only converted on 32% of them. He has a good looking jumper and should hopefully make the leap from .367/.318 splits to something in the ballpark of .425/.360 or so. This should remedy itself by taking good shots and finishing better.
F/C: Guerschon Yabusele The Dancing Bear! The thicc, French forward was drafted 16th overall in 2016 but was stashed away for a year in China before signing with the team this off-season. Yabusele personifies almost exactly what is a swing/big in the Stevens system. He is undersized for a PF, but has great length, strength, and can shoot. Expectations:
Play spot minutes as a small-ball center. Yabu is a more natural fit at the power forward, but he will more than likely be seeing minutes as a center on this team. His wingspan, weight/strength, and ability to stretch the floor is what Brad Stevens dreams of in his 5-out lineups.
Be able to hit the open 3 consistently. Scouting reports and eye test have shown that Yabusele is a pretty good shooter. He shot well when he played overseas and is expected to do the same with open shots at NBA range.
C/F: Daniel Theis The undersized German center was a surprise signing for many of us this off-season, but he’s surprised after his first preseason game. Only standing at 6’9”, the 25-year-old Euro is ready to show up as a rebounder and floor stretcher while showcasing the occasional blocked shot as well. Expectations:
Bring energy off the bench. Daniel Theis needs to be a high-energy bench guy similar to what Jerebko brought last year. Rebounding, shot blocking, and capable scoring from all around will be his thing.
Be a hustle rebounder. This team will probably struggle on the glass again, but Theis is physical and played under the basket a lot in Europe. He said that rebounding is his strength and we’ll need him to back that up.
Take the shots when they’re there. He’s showed that he can seemingly hit what is available and efficiently at that. His jump shot looks good as a guy who plays mostly in the paint, extending to near 3-point range. If he can hit those shots at a respectable rate, more minutes could be coming his way.
F: Semi Ojeleye The 37th pick out of SMU is looking to make a name for himself in the league after impressing the Celtics in the off-season. Standing at 6’7” and 241 pounds, the stout forward brings hard-nosed defense and shooting. He’s another wing who will likely slide up to play at PF under Brad Stevens. Expectations:
Be a physical defender. Losing Jae Crowder will hurt the bulldog mentality of the team, but Semi has the chance to be the next Crowder-like defender. He needs to use his size, strength, and versatility to take on tough matchups and be physical. He’s going to have to be a tone-setter.
Hit open three pointers. His jumper has looked great in college and even in the first preseason game. If he can consistently hit at a near 37% clip, he’s going to be a very valuable piece off the bench with minutes there to be earned.
G/F: Abdel Nader The Egyptian guard/forward, Abdel Nader is coming off a G-League Rookie of the Year award after being drafted 58th by the Celtics in 2016. He’ll be an end of the rotation guy but with the bench young and uncertain, Nader could look to force his way into the rotation. Expectations:
Stay true to his identity as a score first player. Getting noticed will take being the natural scorer he’s shown in the G-League. He can put the ball in the hoop from all over the court and isn’t afraid to pull the trigger when he’s open. He should continue to do that while fitting in to the selfless offense.
Adapt to and learn the defensive scheme. This is how the playing time will stick around, especially with how important it is to Stevens. Nader has potential to be another player who can switch, so he needs to showcase the ability to defend 2s and 3s when out there.
G: Shane Larkin Shane Larkin was the 18th pick in the 2013 Draft but never found continued success in the NBA. After playing for 3 teams in 3 seasons, Larkin looked overseas. After a season on Baskonia under coach and former NBA PG Pablo Prigioni, Larkin is looking to make an NBA comeback. Expectations:
Take on the role of a true point guard when on the floor. In his last NBA season, he was dishing out 4.4 assists a game in only 22 minutes. He has potential on that end and with the guard rotation a little weak this year, he will have his time to showcase that.
Be an average offensive player. As far as shooting splits, Larkin wasn’t terrible in his last NBA season. His efficiently left a little something to be desired, but as a quick guard in a fast-paced offense he should see some success here under Stevens. The team likes what he brings and think he could be a benefit as an end of bench guy.
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