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Myles Gaskin Post-Game Analysis: Looking Ahead
Last Thursday I wrote a post analyzing the Gaskin RBBC situation pre-game. I intended to write a post-game sooner but I got busy and so here we are now. So, let's get straight to it. On Thursday night we saw Gaskin truly separate himself from the pack. Attempts:
vs Jaguars
Attempts
Yards
Avg
TD
Myles Gaskin
22
66
3.0
0
Matt Breida
3
4
1.3
0
Jordan Howard
3
1
0.3
1
Other
8
67
N/A
1
Total
36
138
1.5
2
Receiving work:
vs Jaguars
Targets
Receptions
Yards
Avg
TD
Myles Gaskin
5
5
29
5.8
0
Matt Breida
0
0
0
0
0
J. Howard
0
0
0
0
0
Total
5
5
29
N/A
0
These numbers reaffirm something many of us already now know. Myles Gaskin has, until proven otherwise, secured the lead role in the Dolphins backfield and it isn't close. Looking back on the previous two weeks, this trend was becoming apparent and is now solidified. Let's look at another interesting statistic. Redzone Attempts:
Last 2 Weeks
Redzone Attempts
Goalline Attempt
Yards
TD
Percentage
Myles Gaskin
2
0
11
0
16.7%
J. Howard
5
5
1
2
41.7%
Matt Breida
3
0
9
0
25%
Other
2
0
N/A
0
16.7%
Total
12
5
21
2
100.1%
vs Jaguars
Redzone Attempts
Goalline Attempt
Yards
TD
Percentage
Myles Gaskin
9
0
18
0
69.2%
J. Howard
3
3
1
1
23.1%
Matt Breida
0
0
0
0
0%
Ryan Fitzmagic
1
0
1
1
7.7%
Total
13
3
20
2
100%
Looking at the data paints an interesting picture, many are under the impression that Jordan Howard will vulture away Gaskin TDs. While Howard certainly has vultured 3 TDS so far this season it is on a disgusting 8 attempts for 2 yards and 3 TDs line. Howard is almost exclusively used for goalline situations. Gaskin meanwhile has seen an encouraging uptick in RedZone usage, commanding an impressive 69% of touches against the Jaguars among rush attempts in the RZ. Gaskin is bound to get his, just don't hold your breath from 1-yd out. Another encouraging area for Gaskin is his receiving work, to reiterate:
vs Jaguars
Targets
Receptions
Yards
Avg
Myles Gaskin
5
5
29
5.8
Gaskin continues to catch his targets at an astoundingly efficient rate. Gaskin is 4th in receiving yards with 91, T-3 in targets with 16, and 1st in receptions with 15 for the Dolphins team. Additionally, Gaskin commands a healthy 16.7% target share for the Dolphins and runs a route on 67% of pass plays run. An interesting question to consider going forward is, how will OC Chan Gailey utilize Gaskin as the primary back as the season progresses? Looking back to Gailey's offenses to the Bills in 2010-2012 and the Jets 2015-2016 the running back position was utilized heavily in the passing game. For these statistics, I will combine and total the top two RBs each year during Gailey's tenure per team. RB utilization:
RBs under Gailey
Attempts
Yards
Targets
Receptions
Yards
Receiving TD/Rushing TD
Bills
895
4386
286
210
1759
8/24
Jets
666
2918
218
165
1256
6/18
Total
1561
7304
504
375
3015
14/42
As evidenced here, backs in Gailey's offense are expected to be reliable pass-catchers and are targeted heavily. This lends itself to Gaskin's skillset as a smaller pass-catching back. A very interesting bit of information I gathered looking through these statistics is that Ryan Fitzpatrick was the starting QB in every single one of these years under Gailey. So a continuation of previous trends can be reasonably expected. Last but not least, let's look into Gaskin's upcoming matchup with Seattle. As predicted last week, the Jaguars continued their efforts as a solid defensive front against the run. Allowing only 3.4 ypc on 29 attempts for 100 yards between the RBs. However, the Dolphins managed to get things done off of a couple of Minshew turnovers and an unimpressive pass defense. As suspected, Gaskin faced resistance on the ground but was able to make up for it through the air for PPR owners. Looking forward Gaskin faces an even tougher matchup on the ground against a formidable Seahawks run defense ranked 2nd in the league with 66.7 yards/game that only allowed 34 yards on 14 attempts for Elliot last week. However, we are once again looking to bet on Gaskin to produce through the air against a Seahawk's pass defense ranked dead last with 430 yards/game that allowed the Cowboys 472 yards through the air. The Seahawks also struggled to get to Dak through an ailing Cowboys' oline but managed to put a little pressure on Prescott. Receiving stats by RBs last 3 weeks:
vs
Targets
Receptions
Yards
Avg
TD
Falcons
10
7
11
1.6
0
Patriots
7
4
47
6.7
0
Cowboys
12
7
19
2.7
0
Total
29
18
77
N/A
0
Based on these statistics, the Seahawks allow a 62.1% completion rate to RBs. However, they do not seem to allow very much yardage after the fact. The Falcons failed to capitalize on their 7 receptions, Rex Burkhead for the Patriots managed to have a solid receiving day from a PPR standpoint, and finally, Elliot also appears to have failed to capitalize on his opportunities but achieved PPR worth due to his high number of receptions. I would like to point out that, after watching the entirety of the Cowboys' game, Elliot uncharacteristically dropped at least 3 easy passes from Dak that could've gone for solid gains and an additional 3 points. Taking everything into consideration, this will be Gaskin's toughest matchup to date. Gaskin faces an ever tougher and better coached run defense. But, following the trend, Gaskin has opportunities against a weak Hawk pass defense. Look for Gaskin to get checkdown work against a soft Hawk's secondary and hope for more receiving work while tempering your expectations on the ground. If the Dolphins fall behind quickly against the overwhelming Hawks' offense a positive game script can boost Gaskin's PPR work. On a side note, I expect the Dolphins receivers and possibly Gesicki to have a great week against a weak secondary, while the battered Hawks' stars safety Jamal Adams and CB Quinton Dunbar deal with injuries that may keep them out this week. Edit: Almost forgot, if the numbers don't speak to you, please listen to an endorsement from one of fantasyfootball's very own.
"Miami dolphin fan here and someone that watches Gaskin very closely, I also happen to work at SeaWorld... Miles is silky, SILKY, mahi-mahi, and a big BIG boy. Big ass boy. Swims hard as a man (SWIMS HARD), and the Fins are aware of this slick porpoise boy. They will feed him, feed him often, and hard, and he will squeak head off. Unbelievable." - u/rybono
Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning October 5th, 2020
Good Friday evening to all of you here on StockMarket. I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and is ready for the new trading week ahead. Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning October 5th, 2020.
Trump’s health and fiscal stimulus fight will steer the markets in the week ahead - (Source)
President Donald Trump’s health and the state of a fiscal stimulus package will be the main focus for markets in the coming week. In the early morning hours Friday, President Donald Trump tweeted that he and the first lady tested positive for Covid. Stocks sold off hard, but the S&P 500 came off its lows in Friday trading and closed down just under 1%. It was up 1.5% for the week. The market was helped by signs that a stimulus package is still a possibility, after House Speaker Nancy Pelosi asked airlines not to furlough workers. She promised either a stand alone aid bill, or a bigger negotiated relief legislation that would help the industry. “The market is going to watch health updates from the White House medical staff, and it’s going to watch how the president communicates with the public,” said Julian Emanuel, head of equities and derivatives at BTIG. “Will we see him in person in the next week in any form? What’s his volume of tweets? All as a way to first gauge the severity of the case.” Trump and Melania Trump are reported to have mild cases, but as time goes on the market will turn to how the illness could impact the presidential election. Former Vice President Joe Biden gained slightly in the polls after the first debate Tuesday night, and now the calendar for further debates is in question. The market has seemingly warmed to Biden, and even though he would raise taxes, it is assumed Democrats would quickly pass a major infrastructure package if there is a Democratic sweep of Congress. Trump, however, is widely seen on Wall Street as stronger on the economy and better for markets. “What you’ve done from a campaign perspective, is you’ve taken away the thing that gives him the most energy - his ability to interact with crowds,” said Emanuel. “The president had wanted to paint the economic recovery of the last three or four months as the cornerstone, and this basically puts the virus back as topic number 1, number 2 and number 3. And it’s all the more so because the data is coming in weaker than expected.” The market is fixated on the prospect of stimulus to help business, the unemployed and state and local governments. The House passed a $2.2 trillion package this week, but there is still no agreement with Republicans. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin has pushed for a $1.6 trillion package. “I think there’s an underlying bid under the market because nobody wants to be super short if we get a stimulus approved, but you can’t be too long in case his mild symptoms turn into severe symptoms,” said Scott Redler, partner with T3live.com. “We’re in a tough spot but overall we’re still pretty constructive.” Emanuel said the fact the president is now ill could hurt confidence and slow down some of the improvement in the economy. “The underlying tone is, again, whether its directly or later, there’s going to be stimulus,” Emanuel said. ”’Whether it’s this month or November, this reinforces the need for stimulus because the president falling ill signals to, at the margin, the person whose thinking about going out to dinner to think again. It’s a significant economic and psychological hindrance.” Also coming up in the week ahead is a speech Tuesday by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell to the National Association of Business Economists. Powell is also expected to push for the stimulus package to boost the economy so the recovery does not stall. “I think his whole objective is to try to get Congress and the Administration to sign onto a fiscal rescue package,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics. “He’ll all but come out and say [the recovery] is not a ‘V.’ Without additional support from lawmakers, risks are pretty high that we backtrack. I think that’s the kind of outlook he’s going to give. It’s going to be full-throated.” September’s employment report, released Friday, was seen by some as a warning that the economy is not rebounding as expected. There were 661,000 jobs added in September, well below the 800,000 expected. Besides Powell, there are a half dozen other Fed speakers. There are also minutes from the Fed’s last minute released Wednesday afternoon.
This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:
We've all had versions of this conversation where you or the person you were talking to just couldn't make up their mind. At the end of the day, it only causes trouble and plans are ruined. The market is having its own back and forth this year trying to decide between growth and value. Just today, growth stocks are getting slaughtered while value stocks are up marginally. As an example, the Russell 1000 Growth index is down 1.8% on the day while the Russell 1000 Value index has managed to rally 0.25%. The chart below shows the daily performance spread between the Russell 1000 Growth index and the Russell 1000 Value index for each day in 2020. Today's performance spread between the two indices marks the ninth time this year that value has outperformed growth by more than two percentage points. At the other extreme, there have also been eight trading days where growth outperformed value by more than two percentage points.
So how does this year's frequency of days where the performance spread between the two indices was more than two percentage points stack up to other years? The chart below shows the daily performance spread between the two indices going all the way back to 1990. Over the last thirty years, the only two periods where we saw a frequency of these large daily dislocations was back in 2008 and the period spanning 2000 and 2001. In fact, with 17 days this year where the performance spread between the two indices was greater than two percentage points, the only other years that saw a higher frequency of large dislocations were 2000 (54) and 2001 (28). If you think the market has been indecisive this year, in 2000 we saw these types of daily dislocations an average of once per week.
Election Anxiety Weighs on October Market Performance
October often evokes fear on Wall Street as memories are stirred of crashes in 1929, 1987, the 554-point drop on October 27, 1997, back-to-back massacres in 1978 and 1979, Friday the 13th in 1989 and the 733-point drop on October 15, 2008. During the week ending October 10, 2008, Dow lost 1,874.19 points (18.2%), the worst weekly decline in our database going back to 1901, in percentage terms. March 2020 now holds the dubious honor of producing the worst, second and third worst DJIA weekly point declines. The term “Octoberphobia” has been used to describe the phenomenon of major market drops occurring during the month. Market calamities can become a self-fulfilling prophecy, so stay on the lookout and don’t get whipsawed if it happens. But October has become a turnaround month—a “bear killer” if you will. Twelve post-WWII bear markets have ended in October: 1946, 1957, 1960, 1962, 1966, 1974, 1987, 1990, 1998, 2001, 2002 and 2011 (S&P 500 declined 19.4%). However, eight were midterm bottoms. Over the last 21 years, October’s performance has been solid. Average gains over the last 21-years range from 1.3% by Russell 1000 to 2.4% by NASDAQ. Small caps have still struggled though with Russell 2000 gaining a modest 0.5%
Election-year Octobers rank dead last for Dow, S&P 500 (since 1952), NASDAQ (since 1972), Russell 1000, and Russell 2000 (since 1980). Eliminating gruesome 2008 from the calculation provides a moderate amount of relief, as rankings climb to mid pack. Should a meaningful decline materialize in October it is likely to be an excellent buying opportunity, especially for any depressed technology and small-cap shares.
What Have Democratic Sweeps Meant for the S&P 500?
Headed into the first presidential debate Tuesday night, betting markets (ElectionBettingOdds.com) placed Democratic candidate Joe Biden as the slight favorite to take the White House in November. The debate resulted in Biden gaining another 5 percentage point chance of winning the Presidency. As of this morning, Biden's odds to win are at 59.8% versus Trump's odds of 38.9%. Additionally, Democrats are slight favorites to win control of the Senate (58.4% to 41.5%) and big favorites to maintain the House (82.8% to 17.1%). Given these odds, in the chart below we show the average performance of the S&P 500 from the three months before Election Day through three months after Election Day for all election years post-WWII that resulted in a sweep of the executive and legislative branch by the Democrats. As shown, on average the S&P 500 has been on the decline in the weeks leading up to Election Day, though in the days just before the Election there has been a small rally that sharply reverses once the results come in. After the initial post-Election drop, the market has trended a bit higher, but by three months after the Election, it has only found itself around the same levels as Election Day; on average a 2.6% loss versus where the index stood three months prior.
The composite shown above is comprised of six different years: 1948, 1960, 1964, 1976, 1992, and 2008. While on average the S&P 500 has traded lower, it is not necessarily a sure-fire thing. For example, 1948 and 2008 were the only years that saw the S&P 500 trade and stay significantly lower in the wake of the election. In 1976, there was similarly a sell-off in the immediate aftermath of the election, but the index did make its way back up to the highs of that six-month time frame later on albeit no new high was put in place. Meanwhile, 1960, 1964, and 1992 all saw the S&P 500 run higher after the election even despite some periods of consolidation after initial moves higher. In our B.I.G. Tips report from Tuesday, we show these same charts for all Presidential election years post WWII including a look at the average performance given every potential election outcome.
Even after September's weakness, the S&P 500's trailing 12-month total return stood at an impressive 14.9%. Given the events of the last 12 months, one could even say that performance is remarkable. What's even crazier is that the S&P 500's performance over the last 12 months is more than three times stronger than the 12 month period before that (+4.25%). The chart below compares the S&P 500's annualized total returns over the last one, two, five, ten, and twenty years and compares that performance to the historical average return of the index over those same time periods. The S&P 500's historical average 12-month return is 11.7%, so the current 14.9% gain exceeds that average by more than three full percentage points. Over a two-year window, though, the S&P 500's annualized return of 9.4% is more than a full percentage point below the historical average. Looking further out, the S&P 500's trailing five and ten-year annualized return has been much stronger than average, which makes sense given the long bull market we were in. Over a 20 year window, though, the S&P 500 is only just starting to work off some of the declines from the dot-com bust and as a result, the 6.4% annualized gain is a four and a half percentage points below the long-term average of 10.9%.
Below we show how the current performance of the S&P 500 in each of the time frames shown compares to all other periods on a percentile basis. The S&P 500's performance over the last year, ranks just below 56th percentile of all other periods, while the two-year performance ranks just below the 42nd percentile. Even as the five and ten-year periods have seen well above average returns, they still rank in just the mid-60s on a percentile basis. The S&P 500's ranking over a 20-year time period is a completely different story ranking in single-digits on a percentile basis. Even with the equity market right near record highs, the last two decades have been forgettable for US equities.
There is no denying that market seasonality has not worked so well this year. But we have been here before and history is on our side. Over the long term, intermediate term and short term market seasonality has suffered brief periods when seasonality was overridden by more powerful forces. The COVID pandemic and economic shutdown certainly qualifies. But it is only a matter of time until repetitive human behavior patterns and people and institutions return to moving money around in the usual daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly and seasonal patterns. The return of perennial September weakness is emblematic of a return to normal market behavior and a reflection of the fact that despite the continuing concerns about surges in coronavirus cases life is beginning to return to normal. In our area, about 25-30 miles north of New York City, our kids are beginning hybrid learning, playing rugby, lacrosse and other sports (yes with some COVID protocols, but tackling and facing-off), golf outings are happening and people are going to restaurants and out and about. The chart here shows the historical One-Year Pattern of the S&P 500 Since 1950 versus 2020. The black line shows the seasonal pattern since 1950. The blue represents the pattern since 1988. We use 1988 as it is the first year after the 1987 Crash when the market underwent a major systemic change with the implementation of downside protection circuit breakers and collars. It is noteworthy how the seasonal pattern persists during both the 70-year and 31-year timeframes. 2020 is plotted on the right axis due to the magnitude of the move this year. The yellow box highlights the rebirth of seasonality this September, especially during this notoriously negative Week After Triple Witching Week as detailed page 108 of the 2020 Almanac, indicated by the two black arrows Years like 1980, 1982, 2009 and 2016 with unseasonably early weakness and bear markets like 2020 returned to normal seasonal patterns in short order. And years like 1954, 1958, 1980, 1982, 1995 and 2009 that exhibited double-digit gains in the Worst Six Months still proceeded to deliver further sizable gains in the subsequent Best Six Months (page 52, STA 2020). We believe the return of market seasonality is upon us. So remain cautious through the end of September and be alert to Octoberophobia, but remain ready to pounce on our Best Months Seasonal MACD Buy Signal, when it triggers.
Below are some of the notable companies coming out with earnings releases this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:
Monday 10.5.20 Before Market Open:
([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)
Monday 10.5.20 After Market Close:
([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
([CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)
Friday 10.9.20 Before Market Open:
([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)
Friday 10.9.20 After Market Close:
([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)
Domino's Pizza, Inc. $433.78
Domino's Pizza, Inc. (DPZ) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:30 AM ET on Thursday, October 8, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $2.73 per share on revenue of $944.53 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $2.83 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 76% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 33.17% with revenue increasing by 15.07%. Short interest has decreased by 31.5% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 7.4% from its open following the earnings release to be 22.3% above its 200 day moving average of $354.71. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 7.3% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 8.2% move in recent quarters.
Paychex, Inc. (PAYX) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 8:30 AM ET on Tuesday, October 6, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.56 per share on revenue of $895.39 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.57 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 49% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 21.13% with revenue decreasing by 9.74%. Short interest has decreased by 9.7% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 2.8% from its open following the earnings release to be 6.0% above its 200 day moving average of $74.91. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, September 18, 2020 there was some notable buying of 1,269 contracts of the $90.00 call expiring on Friday, March 19, 2021. Option traders are pricing in a 4.8% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.1% move in recent quarters.
RPM International Inc. (RPM) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:45 AM ET on Wednesday, October 7, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.21 per share on revenue of $1.49 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.26 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 65% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 27.37% with revenue increasing by 1.17%. Short interest has decreased by 39.7% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 3.3% from its open following the earnings release to be 12.4% above its 200 day moving average of $73.51. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 4.4% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.3% move in recent quarters.
Helen of Troy Ltd. (HELE) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:30 AM ET on Thursday, October 8, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $2.39 per share on revenue of $451.26 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $2.57 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 62% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 18.91% with revenue increasing by 9.00%. Short interest has decreased by 6.4% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 4.4% from its open following the earnings release to be 12.8% above its 200 day moving average of $177.13. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 5.7% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 8.9% move in recent quarters.
Acuity Brands, Inc. (AYI) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 8:40 AM ET on Thursday, October 8, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $2.01 per share on revenue of $814.63 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $2.12 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 46% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 28.21% with revenue decreasing by 13.16%. Short interest has increased by 62.6% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 5.6% from its open following the earnings release to be 4.1% above its 200 day moving average of $101.43. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 5.8% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 9.0% move in recent quarters.
Levi Strauss & Co. (LEVI) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:00 PM ET on Tuesday, October 6, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.27 per share on revenue of $766.84 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.20) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 40% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 187.10% with revenue decreasing by 47.01%. Short interest has increased by 3.9% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 7.3% from its open following the earnings release to be 3.5% below its 200 day moving average of $14.66. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, October 2, 2020 there was some notable buying of 8,166 contracts of the $14.00 call expiring on Friday, October 16, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 10.6% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 6.9% move in recent quarters.
Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc. (LW) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 8:30 AM ET on Wednesday, October 7, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.30 per share on revenue of $877.60 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.28 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 36% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 62.03% with revenue decreasing by 11.26%. Short interest has decreased by 21.7% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 4.1% from its open following the earnings release to be 1.8% below its 200 day moving average of $69.17. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, October 2, 2020 there was some notable buying of 1,580 contracts of the $70.00 call expiring on Friday, October 16, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 8.3% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 6.7% move in recent quarters.
Landec Corp. (LNDC) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:20 PM ET on Tuesday, October 6, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.11 per share on revenue of $127.86 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.09) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 41% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 31.25% with revenue decreasing by 7.82%. Short interest has decreased by 5.1% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 12.3% from its open following the earnings release to be 8.4% below its 200 day moving average of $10.30. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 16.7% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 10.6% move in recent quarters.
Saratoga Investment Corp (SAR) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:00 PM ET on Wednesday, October 7, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.47 per share on revenue of $12.95 million. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 48% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 30.88% with revenue decreasing by 6.75%. Short interest has decreased by 60.5% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 6.3% from its open following the earnings release. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release.
EXFO Inc. (EXFO) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:00 PM ET on Wednesday, October 7, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.07 per share on revenue of $64.85 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.07 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 30% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 40.00% with revenue decreasing by 7.59%. Short interest has decreased by 17.5% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 14.7% from its open following the earnings release. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release.
Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning October 5th, 2020
Good Saturday morning to all of you here on smallstreetbets. I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and is ready for the new trading week ahead. Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning October 5th, 2020.
Trump’s health and fiscal stimulus fight will steer the markets in the week ahead - (Source)
President Donald Trump’s health and the state of a fiscal stimulus package will be the main focus for markets in the coming week. In the early morning hours Friday, President Donald Trump tweeted that he and the first lady tested positive for Covid. Stocks sold off hard, but the S&P 500 came off its lows in Friday trading and closed down just under 1%. It was up 1.5% for the week. The market was helped by signs that a stimulus package is still a possibility, after House Speaker Nancy Pelosi asked airlines not to furlough workers. She promised either a stand alone aid bill, or a bigger negotiated relief legislation that would help the industry. “The market is going to watch health updates from the White House medical staff, and it’s going to watch how the president communicates with the public,” said Julian Emanuel, head of equities and derivatives at BTIG. “Will we see him in person in the next week in any form? What’s his volume of tweets? All as a way to first gauge the severity of the case.” Trump and Melania Trump are reported to have mild cases, but as time goes on the market will turn to how the illness could impact the presidential election. Former Vice President Joe Biden gained slightly in the polls after the first debate Tuesday night, and now the calendar for further debates is in question. The market has seemingly warmed to Biden, and even though he would raise taxes, it is assumed Democrats would quickly pass a major infrastructure package if there is a Democratic sweep of Congress. Trump, however, is widely seen on Wall Street as stronger on the economy and better for markets. “What you’ve done from a campaign perspective, is you’ve taken away the thing that gives him the most energy - his ability to interact with crowds,” said Emanuel. “The president had wanted to paint the economic recovery of the last three or four months as the cornerstone, and this basically puts the virus back as topic number 1, number 2 and number 3. And it’s all the more so because the data is coming in weaker than expected.” The market is fixated on the prospect of stimulus to help business, the unemployed and state and local governments. The House passed a $2.2 trillion package this week, but there is still no agreement with Republicans. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin has pushed for a $1.6 trillion package. “I think there’s an underlying bid under the market because nobody wants to be super short if we get a stimulus approved, but you can’t be too long in case his mild symptoms turn into severe symptoms,” said Scott Redler, partner with T3live.com. “We’re in a tough spot but overall we’re still pretty constructive.” Emanuel said the fact the president is now ill could hurt confidence and slow down some of the improvement in the economy. “The underlying tone is, again, whether its directly or later, there’s going to be stimulus,” Emanuel said. ”’Whether it’s this month or November, this reinforces the need for stimulus because the president falling ill signals to, at the margin, the person whose thinking about going out to dinner to think again. It’s a significant economic and psychological hindrance.” Also coming up in the week ahead is a speech Tuesday by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell to the National Association of Business Economists. Powell is also expected to push for the stimulus package to boost the economy so the recovery does not stall. “I think his whole objective is to try to get Congress and the Administration to sign onto a fiscal rescue package,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics. “He’ll all but come out and say [the recovery] is not a ‘V.’ Without additional support from lawmakers, risks are pretty high that we backtrack. I think that’s the kind of outlook he’s going to give. It’s going to be full-throated.” September’s employment report, released Friday, was seen by some as a warning that the economy is not rebounding as expected. There were 661,000 jobs added in September, well below the 800,000 expected. Besides Powell, there are a half dozen other Fed speakers. There are also minutes from the Fed’s last minute released Wednesday afternoon.
This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:
We've all had versions of this conversation where you or the person you were talking to just couldn't make up their mind. At the end of the day, it only causes trouble and plans are ruined. The market is having its own back and forth this year trying to decide between growth and value. Just today, growth stocks are getting slaughtered while value stocks are up marginally. As an example, the Russell 1000 Growth index is down 1.8% on the day while the Russell 1000 Value index has managed to rally 0.25%. The chart below shows the daily performance spread between the Russell 1000 Growth index and the Russell 1000 Value index for each day in 2020. Today's performance spread between the two indices marks the ninth time this year that value has outperformed growth by more than two percentage points. At the other extreme, there have also been eight trading days where growth outperformed value by more than two percentage points.
So how does this year's frequency of days where the performance spread between the two indices was more than two percentage points stack up to other years? The chart below shows the daily performance spread between the two indices going all the way back to 1990. Over the last thirty years, the only two periods where we saw a frequency of these large daily dislocations was back in 2008 and the period spanning 2000 and 2001. In fact, with 17 days this year where the performance spread between the two indices was greater than two percentage points, the only other years that saw a higher frequency of large dislocations were 2000 (54) and 2001 (28). If you think the market has been indecisive this year, in 2000 we saw these types of daily dislocations an average of once per week.
Election Anxiety Weighs on October Market Performance
October often evokes fear on Wall Street as memories are stirred of crashes in 1929, 1987, the 554-point drop on October 27, 1997, back-to-back massacres in 1978 and 1979, Friday the 13th in 1989 and the 733-point drop on October 15, 2008. During the week ending October 10, 2008, Dow lost 1,874.19 points (18.2%), the worst weekly decline in our database going back to 1901, in percentage terms. March 2020 now holds the dubious honor of producing the worst, second and third worst DJIA weekly point declines. The term “Octoberphobia” has been used to describe the phenomenon of major market drops occurring during the month. Market calamities can become a self-fulfilling prophecy, so stay on the lookout and don’t get whipsawed if it happens. But October has become a turnaround month—a “bear killer” if you will. Twelve post-WWII bear markets have ended in October: 1946, 1957, 1960, 1962, 1966, 1974, 1987, 1990, 1998, 2001, 2002 and 2011 (S&P 500 declined 19.4%). However, eight were midterm bottoms. Over the last 21 years, October’s performance has been solid. Average gains over the last 21-years range from 1.3% by Russell 1000 to 2.4% by NASDAQ. Small caps have still struggled though with Russell 2000 gaining a modest 0.5%
Election-year Octobers rank dead last for Dow, S&P 500 (since 1952), NASDAQ (since 1972), Russell 1000, and Russell 2000 (since 1980). Eliminating gruesome 2008 from the calculation provides a moderate amount of relief, as rankings climb to mid pack. Should a meaningful decline materialize in October it is likely to be an excellent buying opportunity, especially for any depressed technology and small-cap shares.
What Have Democratic Sweeps Meant for the S&P 500?
Headed into the first presidential debate Tuesday night, betting markets (ElectionBettingOdds.com) placed Democratic candidate Joe Biden as the slight favorite to take the White House in November. The debate resulted in Biden gaining another 5 percentage point chance of winning the Presidency. As of this morning, Biden's odds to win are at 59.8% versus Trump's odds of 38.9%. Additionally, Democrats are slight favorites to win control of the Senate (58.4% to 41.5%) and big favorites to maintain the House (82.8% to 17.1%). Given these odds, in the chart below we show the average performance of the S&P 500 from the three months before Election Day through three months after Election Day for all election years post-WWII that resulted in a sweep of the executive and legislative branch by the Democrats. As shown, on average the S&P 500 has been on the decline in the weeks leading up to Election Day, though in the days just before the Election there has been a small rally that sharply reverses once the results come in. After the initial post-Election drop, the market has trended a bit higher, but by three months after the Election, it has only found itself around the same levels as Election Day; on average a 2.6% loss versus where the index stood three months prior.
The composite shown above is comprised of six different years: 1948, 1960, 1964, 1976, 1992, and 2008. While on average the S&P 500 has traded lower, it is not necessarily a sure-fire thing. For example, 1948 and 2008 were the only years that saw the S&P 500 trade and stay significantly lower in the wake of the election. In 1976, there was similarly a sell-off in the immediate aftermath of the election, but the index did make its way back up to the highs of that six-month time frame later on albeit no new high was put in place. Meanwhile, 1960, 1964, and 1992 all saw the S&P 500 run higher after the election even despite some periods of consolidation after initial moves higher. In our B.I.G. Tips report from Tuesday, we show these same charts for all Presidential election years post WWII including a look at the average performance given every potential election outcome.
Even after September's weakness, the S&P 500's trailing 12-month total return stood at an impressive 14.9%. Given the events of the last 12 months, one could even say that performance is remarkable. What's even crazier is that the S&P 500's performance over the last 12 months is more than three times stronger than the 12 month period before that (+4.25%). The chart below compares the S&P 500's annualized total returns over the last one, two, five, ten, and twenty years and compares that performance to the historical average return of the index over those same time periods. The S&P 500's historical average 12-month return is 11.7%, so the current 14.9% gain exceeds that average by more than three full percentage points. Over a two-year window, though, the S&P 500's annualized return of 9.4% is more than a full percentage point below the historical average. Looking further out, the S&P 500's trailing five and ten-year annualized return has been much stronger than average, which makes sense given the long bull market we were in. Over a 20 year window, though, the S&P 500 is only just starting to work off some of the declines from the dot-com bust and as a result, the 6.4% annualized gain is a four and a half percentage points below the long-term average of 10.9%.
Below we show how the current performance of the S&P 500 in each of the time frames shown compares to all other periods on a percentile basis. The S&P 500's performance over the last year, ranks just below 56th percentile of all other periods, while the two-year performance ranks just below the 42nd percentile. Even as the five and ten-year periods have seen well above average returns, they still rank in just the mid-60s on a percentile basis. The S&P 500's ranking over a 20-year time period is a completely different story ranking in single-digits on a percentile basis. Even with the equity market right near record highs, the last two decades have been forgettable for US equities.
There is no denying that market seasonality has not worked so well this year. But we have been here before and history is on our side. Over the long term, intermediate term and short term market seasonality has suffered brief periods when seasonality was overridden by more powerful forces. The COVID pandemic and economic shutdown certainly qualifies. But it is only a matter of time until repetitive human behavior patterns and people and institutions return to moving money around in the usual daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly and seasonal patterns. The return of perennial September weakness is emblematic of a return to normal market behavior and a reflection of the fact that despite the continuing concerns about surges in coronavirus cases life is beginning to return to normal. In our area, about 25-30 miles north of New York City, our kids are beginning hybrid learning, playing rugby, lacrosse and other sports (yes with some COVID protocols, but tackling and facing-off), golf outings are happening and people are going to restaurants and out and about. The chart here shows the historical One-Year Pattern of the S&P 500 Since 1950 versus 2020. The black line shows the seasonal pattern since 1950. The blue represents the pattern since 1988. We use 1988 as it is the first year after the 1987 Crash when the market underwent a major systemic change with the implementation of downside protection circuit breakers and collars. It is noteworthy how the seasonal pattern persists during both the 70-year and 31-year timeframes. 2020 is plotted on the right axis due to the magnitude of the move this year. The yellow box highlights the rebirth of seasonality this September, especially during this notoriously negative Week After Triple Witching Week as detailed page 108 of the 2020 Almanac, indicated by the two black arrows Years like 1980, 1982, 2009 and 2016 with unseasonably early weakness and bear markets like 2020 returned to normal seasonal patterns in short order. And years like 1954, 1958, 1980, 1982, 1995 and 2009 that exhibited double-digit gains in the Worst Six Months still proceeded to deliver further sizable gains in the subsequent Best Six Months (page 52, STA 2020). We believe the return of market seasonality is upon us. So remain cautious through the end of September and be alert to Octoberophobia, but remain ready to pounce on our Best Months Seasonal MACD Buy Signal, when it triggers.
Below are some of the notable companies coming out with earnings releases this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:
Monday 10.5.20 Before Market Open:
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Monday 10.5.20 After Market Close:
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Friday 10.9.20 Before Market Open:
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Friday 10.9.20 After Market Close:
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Domino's Pizza, Inc. $433.78
Domino's Pizza, Inc. (DPZ) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:30 AM ET on Thursday, October 8, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $2.73 per share on revenue of $944.53 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $2.83 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 76% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 33.17% with revenue increasing by 15.07%. Short interest has decreased by 31.5% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 7.4% from its open following the earnings release to be 22.3% above its 200 day moving average of $354.71. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 7.3% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 8.2% move in recent quarters.
Paychex, Inc. (PAYX) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 8:30 AM ET on Tuesday, October 6, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.56 per share on revenue of $895.39 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.57 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 49% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 21.13% with revenue decreasing by 9.74%. Short interest has decreased by 9.7% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 2.8% from its open following the earnings release to be 6.0% above its 200 day moving average of $74.91. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, September 18, 2020 there was some notable buying of 1,269 contracts of the $90.00 call expiring on Friday, March 19, 2021. Option traders are pricing in a 4.8% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.1% move in recent quarters.
RPM International Inc. (RPM) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:45 AM ET on Wednesday, October 7, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.21 per share on revenue of $1.49 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.26 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 65% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 27.37% with revenue increasing by 1.17%. Short interest has decreased by 39.7% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 3.3% from its open following the earnings release to be 12.4% above its 200 day moving average of $73.51. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 4.4% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.3% move in recent quarters.
Helen of Troy Ltd. (HELE) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:30 AM ET on Thursday, October 8, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $2.39 per share on revenue of $451.26 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $2.57 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 62% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 18.91% with revenue increasing by 9.00%. Short interest has decreased by 6.4% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 4.4% from its open following the earnings release to be 12.8% above its 200 day moving average of $177.13. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 5.7% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 8.9% move in recent quarters.
Acuity Brands, Inc. (AYI) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 8:40 AM ET on Thursday, October 8, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $2.01 per share on revenue of $814.63 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $2.12 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 46% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 28.21% with revenue decreasing by 13.16%. Short interest has increased by 62.6% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 5.6% from its open following the earnings release to be 4.1% above its 200 day moving average of $101.43. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 5.8% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 9.0% move in recent quarters.
Levi Strauss & Co. (LEVI) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:00 PM ET on Tuesday, October 6, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.27 per share on revenue of $766.84 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.20) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 40% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 187.10% with revenue decreasing by 47.01%. Short interest has increased by 3.9% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 7.3% from its open following the earnings release to be 3.5% below its 200 day moving average of $14.66. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, October 2, 2020 there was some notable buying of 8,166 contracts of the $14.00 call expiring on Friday, October 16, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 10.6% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 6.9% move in recent quarters.
Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc. (LW) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 8:30 AM ET on Wednesday, October 7, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.30 per share on revenue of $877.60 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.28 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 36% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 62.03% with revenue decreasing by 11.26%. Short interest has decreased by 21.7% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 4.1% from its open following the earnings release to be 1.8% below its 200 day moving average of $69.17. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, October 2, 2020 there was some notable buying of 1,580 contracts of the $70.00 call expiring on Friday, October 16, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 8.3% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 6.7% move in recent quarters.
Landec Corp. (LNDC) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:20 PM ET on Tuesday, October 6, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.11 per share on revenue of $127.86 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.09) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 41% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 31.25% with revenue decreasing by 7.82%. Short interest has decreased by 5.1% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 12.3% from its open following the earnings release to be 8.4% below its 200 day moving average of $10.30. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 16.7% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 10.6% move in recent quarters.
Saratoga Investment Corp (SAR) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:00 PM ET on Wednesday, October 7, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.47 per share on revenue of $12.95 million. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 48% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 30.88% with revenue decreasing by 6.75%. Short interest has decreased by 60.5% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 6.3% from its open following the earnings release. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release.
EXFO Inc. (EXFO) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:00 PM ET on Wednesday, October 7, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.07 per share on revenue of $64.85 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.07 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 30% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 40.00% with revenue decreasing by 7.59%. Short interest has decreased by 17.5% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 14.7% from its open following the earnings release. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release.
This is an example of fundamental DD that takes place at ‘smart’ money institutions based on my professional experience in IBD, Private Equity & most recently at a HF (mods can message me for proof). Not thoroughly fleshed out b/c you autists have limited attention spans, but a summary. Figured I’d take the time to give back to this community that has provided many lolz, & should be a good measuring stick when evaluating other forms of fundamental DD posted here. NFA. DKNG - DraftKings, Inc.: vertically integrated US mobile betting operator that also provides retail sports betting & back-end betting solutions through SBTech. Think of SBTech as the tech ‘market-maker’ for traditional sports betting, they do all the funny math to set the betting odds & seem to be working on back-end solutions for DKNG Casino The Big Picture
Total annual US Gambling Revenue: ~$90Bn [1]
Casinos: ~$75Bn
Illegal Sports Betting: ~$13Bn
Horse Racing: ~$0.8Bn
Daily Fantasy Sports: ~$0.4Bn
Only ~2% of the ~$90Bn gambling revenues were placed online which is the lowest in the world where betting online is legal. For example, in other countries online gaming activity represents ~6% - ~52% of total gambling revenues, with ~12% being the average. Wall Street expects online gaming revenue to be $20Bn-$40Bn within the next 10 years. For this to be achieved, the online gambling market will have to achieve a ~30% penetration rate on total country gaming revenues. There is an expectation that this is could be easily achievable given penetration trends overseas - see page 11 of this: https://s1.rationalcdn.com/vendors/stars-group/documents/presentations/TSG-Investor-Day_March-27-2019.pdf Other catalysts include increasing adaptation of sports betting in more states. States that have both legal sports betting + online sports betting permitted: NV, NJ, WV, PA, IA. Sports betting permitted but no online: DE, MS, RI, MO, AR. Prior to COVID there was ongoing discussions across many States, especially ones with growing deficits to explore how permitting sports betting could create a fresh avenue of tax dollars. Post COVID there is an expectation that these discussions will be given extra focus as many States will be hungry for incremental tax dollars. Important to note that currently 43/50 States allow DFS, but given the small share DFS has on total Gaming Revenues, it increasingly looks like DKNG is banking on traditional sports betting for a variety of reasons, more later. There are entire articles on Google arguing this catalyst so I’ll end this here. Digging Deeper DKNG’s main offerings are Daily Fantasy Sports (“DFS”) products & traditional sports book products to its clients. Long story short, a metric to look for in my opinion (that is curiously not reported by management or remarked on) is the hold % in traditional gaming sector parlance or the ‘rake’ & compare it to the ‘traditional’ gaming products like sports betting & Blackjack. For DFS: DKNG takes ~15% of the prize pool (note: used to be ~6-11% [2]). Curiously, their main competitor FanDuel also has moved up to a ~15% rake recently. Google searches show the smaller competitors have a rake in the ~13% range. This ‘rake’ has grown ~2x in 6 years, but it has been a delicate move on behalf of management. Why? B/c the more ‘sophisticated’ DFS players (equal to autistic day traders on Robinhood) have noted this increase & based on some Googling, some have moved down market to the smaller players. As a side note, many live casino games have their rules altered to grow the Hold %. For example, Blackjack games with 6:5 payouts on 21 have materially higher Hold % than the traditional BJ rules that pay out 3:2. Given the findings so far, DKNG may not have much room to materially increase its hold % in DFS games in the near-term from current of 15%. More on this later. Now why the fuck is this important? This is important b/c the typical sports book (ex-Parlays) have a ~5% hold %/rake. Parlays have up to a ~30% hold (which is why it’s commonly known as the sucker’s bet), & just for reference, the average Blackjack table clocks in 14.5%. What this means: Every dollar put into these games, the “House” or DKNG, will take 15% of your money for DFS games, for sports bets they will be pocketing ~5%, up to ~30% if you’re into parlays, & we’ll just use the standard 14.5% BJ hold for the DraftKings Casino platform. So why the acquisition of SBTech & a foray into the traditional sports gambling market? As you can see previously, the illegal sports betting market is >30x the size of the current daily fantasy sports market. So it’s clear that the DFS providers including DKNG are foraying into the space to capture this user base & hopefully convert them into games that have a higher hold %, such as DFS/DKNG Casino. As of May 2020, DKNG has achieved a 30% penetration rate on its ~4mm ‘monetized’ DFS clientele to its Online Sports Book (OSB), from the OSB+DFS clientele, DKNG has converted 50% into its DraftKings Casino platform. Including non-monetized users, user base totals at 12mm. Based on these unit economics: every 1mm of additional users -> 333k monetized users for DFS -> 100k users for OSB -> 50k users for DraftKings Casino. Some Numbers – Italicized/Bolded the important
In total, DKNG has DFS paying clientele of ~4mm, the metric management focuses on is “Monthly Unique Payers (MUP)” which spans across DFS & online sports betting***. As of Q1’20 they reported 720,000*** MUPs, representing +16% YoY growth [3]
Average revenue per monthly user (ARPU) of ~$41, +11% YoY
Based on previous observation of Hold %, looks like ARPU growth will be limited
Since ’17, MUP has grown at a ~11% CAGR & ARPU has grown at a ~19% CAGR
As a side note: the ~4mm monetized user base was acquired at ~$122/user over 3 years. Total users cost them $41/user over the last 3 years [3].
They are currently EBITDA negative & Wall St expects them to be positive by 2023
I took a dive into the math driving this, here is a summary:
Based on their current cost structure they will need to have ~1.7mm MUPs at an ARPU of ~$46 to break-even. This implies total monetized users of ~10mm from ~4mm currently
Numbers that represent Risks to Long Thesis
DKNG’s user base of ~12mm is on the low end of the sector vs. its ‘brick & mortar’ competitor's user bases (online betting platforms with physical casino presence)
CZR with 55mm, MGM with 33mm, ERI with 10mm (in pending merger with CZR, could have a lot of overlap), FanDuel with 8.5mm
Is there a concern for increased marketing costs to increase user base? Let’s look at a case study of NJ, the first state to open both mobile & retail sports betting:
FanDuel + DraftKings have held 80%+ of the OSB market share since 12/2018 which is estimated to be driven by the conversion opportunity from DFS that is unique to both companies [4]
On the flipside, a case study to examine going forward is how DKNG can get OSB customers in a State that does not allow DFS. Nevada. Home to Las fucking Vegas. Prior to NV pushing FanDuel/DKNG out (highly likely due to casino lobbying), NV was a top-15 State in terms of revenue for them. NV is home to the fattest sports book in the US, & recently the gaming commission started to parse the data on sportsbook wagers done online vs. in-person, & it came out to roughly 50/50. It will be interesting to see how they try to capture market share in a state with no DFS
Long-term EBITDA margin target of 35% requires huge growth in MUPs
Based on their estimated '22 cost structure: Holding ARPU of ~$46, MUPs will have to be ~5.2mm, a 7x increase from current to achieve a EBITDA margin of 35%
A focus on future earnings will be management's ability to shift to a more fixed-cost structure which would effectively lower the MUP requirement for profitability
Things to look for when going Long - Progress of additional States legalizing sports betting – specifically, States with DFS already legalized - Cost structure evolving to a more fixed mix vs. the mostly variable mix currently as this will be the forward figure that determines profitability - Increasing User Base (Curr.: 12mm) -> Monetized Base (Curr.: 4mm) -> MUP (1Q’20: 0.7mm)
Management seems to be focused more on the first step, but one thing to note is that the 33% monetization rate is very high when compared to something like League of Legends which isn’t entirely comparable but in 2013 had a ~4% monetization rate [5]. This, combined with the below implies that this conversion rate may be the ceiling for now
As a side note, ~6 years ago FanDuel had ~300k monetized on an ~800k user base for a monetization rate of ~37% [6]
Share Price Target Given the cost structure of the company, I’m going to base the price targets around Enterprise Value / Revenues (driven by MUPs & ARPUs).
MUP sensitivity of 5mm - 6mm
ARPU sensitivity from $41 - $47 for an average of $44, just a $3 increase from current of $41.
Share Price targets based on 2.0x - 4.5x EV / Sales.
Note: Flutter Entertainment (FanDuel ParentCo) trades at ~3.6x EV/Sales
Bear Case MUP: 5mm -> $20.32 - $45.73 Base Case MUP: 5.5mm -> $22.27 - $50.10 Bull Case MUP: 6mm -> $24.21 - $54.47 These MUPs imply a monetized customer base of 28mm – 33mm. At the high-end, this implies that DKNG monetized customer base will equal MGM’s current total user base. At yesterday’s close of $43.70, DKNG is trading at 3.5x – 4.5x forward Revenues on an expected >5,000 MUPs. Share Price drivers / considerations: - Continued multiple expansion
Consideration: A 1x premium to FanDuel's 3.6x, implies a ~15% upside to current. They're bigger than FanDuel, do they deserve the premium?
- MUP Growth exceeding beyond targets
Consideration: Stock currently implies that they should on average be growing at 40% QoQ – during 2018 they had on average +30% growth QoQ in MUPs, marking their best year
Management Team Jason Robins, 39 – Co-Founder & CEO. Duke BA, started DraftKings from day 1 in 2011. The 2 other buddies he started the Company with are still at DKNG. Dude navigated the Company through the scandal that rocked them in ’15 & ’16, and was the trailblazer in getting DFS labeled as a non-gambling product that enabled it to open in States without a gaming designation. This shit is the stuff that gets people in history books. His accomplishments make him seem like a very competent guy. Has 3 kids now, and only ~3% economic ownership in DKNG but has 90% of the voting power through his Class B share ownership. Also he actively participates in venture investments, sitting on 10 boards. His comp plan performance bonus target is pretty murky, but main drivers are EPS growth, revenue growth, then a bunch of margin & return metrics, along with share price returns. Overall, very open-ended & it’s safe to say as long as shit doesn’t hit the fan, he will be eligible for his max payouts year over year. I’m assuming the lawyers tried to encompass everything possible for maximum flexibility to justify him earning his max comp as long as DKNG is still around. Since he’s got voting control of 90%, I’ll end the specific-person overview here, but want to note that they have a very bloated C-suite. 12 folks at DKNG, 8 folks at SBTech, all with C-suite designations. Whereas their main competitor FanDuel, has 3 guys with a C-suite designations & 1 EVP, but is a sub under a larger ParentCo that has its own management team of ~5 guys. Looking through glassdoor you can see the biggest complaint among employees giving bad reviews is based on management, all of the specific issues they point out IMO are a result of a top-heavy company. Seems like a good starting point to optimize their cost structure, but given Robins' history of sticking this entire thing through with his co-founders since '11 stuff like this doesn't seem to be a part of his playbook. They’re a public company now though, so it’s going to be interesting to see going forward. TL;DR: If I were to initiate a position in DKNG, the stock would have to fall to the $35-$37 range for me to be a buyer of the stock, and based on this rough intro analysis I'll be considering Put options if it breaches $50. I would not touch Calls at this level. [1] Wall Street Research - 6/27/19 [2] https://rotogrinders.com/articles/bang-for-your-buck-a-look-at-dfs-industry-rake-153302 [3] https://draftkings.gcs-web.com/static-files/8f3a5c5a-7228-45bf-aab2-63604111c48d [4] Wall Street Research - 5/19/20 [5]https://www.gamasutra.com/view/news/223071/Dont_monetize_like_League_of_Legends_consultant_says.php [6] https://rotogrinders.com/threads/how-many-people-actually-play-dfs-regularly-252044
Here's a longer guide/writeup to polling. There's a lot of myths, misinformation, and misunderstandings when it comes to polling and I hope this will clear some things up!
Hello everyone! So, polling. It's a very hot topic these days with a lot of misinformation and misunderstandings floating around in regards of polling. Most of it I believe is well meant, at least around these parts (although some is definitely malicious), and so here's a write up on the topic of polling which will hopefully clear some things up and correct some errors. Note: I am not a professional on this topic, although I will try to make sure that everything I claim to be factual is based on the opinions and writings of the experts. Also not, I may have missed somethings, but I've tried my best to be as exhaustive as possible (hence the length of the post)
What Polling Is
So, what is polling and how should we use it? It might not seem obvious at first, so here are some general points about polling.
Singular polls are singular data points. There more data points you have, the more accurate you get. Don't take a single poll as gospel, no matter how good it is quality wise.
Every poll has a margin of error. Usually the margin of error for proper poll ends up at around 2-6 ppt.*(there's a caveat to this, but more on that later)
Sampling size is a fairly small part of a quality poll. 1000 respondents in Texas for example may seem small, but it is probably more than you actually need. What matters more is how the poll is conducted and weighted. Use the 538 poll ratings to get an overview of the quality of each of the polls. (Worth noting that their grade for Emerson is outdated, as they've completely switched methodology since 2018 to one that would probably bring them down to a C. Here's a thread on Emerson.) Some things to look out for to know if a pollster is good or not: 1. Accuracy (most straight forward one probably. How well did they do in the last election?) 2. Herding (have all their polls more or less the same result? If so, it might be that they are discarding polls that go against the presumed result, such as outliers. If a pollster does this, they might have a bunch of polls published that in the end all end up being wrong, even if each one individually might be pretty good on its own) 3. Big, uncalled for swings (this is the opposite of herding. If every poll is an outlier, something is probably wrong. In particular if one poll is an outlier in one direction and the next in the other, as it means it's not just a bias, which all pollsters have to a degree, but something wrong underneath the hood)
Polls aren't forecasts. Polls are snapshots in time. You can make out trends based on movement in polling aggregates, but just looking at the evolution of the poll results of a single pollster isn't necessarily a good way to look at it (unless it's a tracking poll. Although there can be issues there as well). 538 does not do polling, it is not a pollster!
Common myths about polling
I'd like to dispel some common "myths" about polling.
"X poll was wrong, thus polling can't be trusted" Polls are only individual data points, and are not very useful on their own. A lot of polls are outliers (although it's worth noting that outliers are a good thing and you should be as suspicious of pollsters that are too consistent as of those that are too random in their results), and different pollsters have different built in biases (although it is worth noting that polling biases aren't necessarily towards one party or another). Use polling aggregates if you want a proper overview of the polling situation. I would also recommend checking out forecast models (more on models/aggregates below).
"National polls are useless, only state polls matter." Whilst it is true that presidential elections are decided state by state and the Electoral College, using proper models the EC advantage can be calculated. National polls also generally have smaller margin of errors than state polls and are generally more accurate.. Best result is a combination of state and national polls, which is what proper forecasting models such as 538's or The Economist's model that takes both state-level polling and national polling into account.
"Polls benefited X last election, thus they will benefit X this election as well." There is no evidence of this. In general it is seemingly random. If there is a major polling error in one direction or another one election cycle, then proper high quality pollsters will generally try to adjust for the next cycle. For example see the Great Lakes region, where there was a polling error in favour of the democrats in 2016. Now in 2020 polling in the Great Lakes region is significantly worse for Biden relative to other regions than it was for Clinton. That doesn't mean Republicans wont overperform there again, but it could very well be the democrats that overperform this election. A great example of this would be the last two UK elections, where Labour overperformed the first, and then contrary to people's expectations underperformed in the last.
"Suppressing mail in ballots hurt democrats disproportionally, meaning polling will overestimate democrats." No clear evidence of this, and there is a lot of conflicting information on this topic. It may very well hurt republicans just as much in the actual election than democrats. This is also why some republicans "surprisingly" have criticised Trump in this regard. Trump's crusade against mail in ballots is if anything, nonsensical, at least from a "getting re-elected perspective". What it's more likely to do is delegitimizing the democratic process and creating room for being able to claim that in the event of a defeat that the election was illegitimate...
"Voter suppression and fraud neutralizes any lead, no matter how large." These aspects can have a decisive impact on close elections, but unless the election results are simply made up (see: Belarus) the effects are relatively limited, especially in a country as the US. There is a reason why even straight up dictators from time to time lose elections.
"Texas won't matter this cycle. And don't believe polling in Texas" I just want to single out Texas since it is an interesting state this election. The thing about Texas is that it is trending in the opposite direction of the Midwest, and swings in Texas are generally independent of those up north. And if Biden wins Texas, he could lose Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania and still win. That would be unlikely, but it's a statistically likely enough of an occurrence that it is worth bearing in mind. Also worth bearing in mind is that polling in Texas both in 2016 and 2020 actually showed a significantly larger republican lead than the actual results. Now, there is no evidence to suggest that just because polling overestimated one side on election that they will overestimate that same side again next election, but it does mean that contrary to popular belief, if polling shows a tie in Texas it most likely actually is a tie.
2016 polling, what was the deal with it?
National polling was spot on. The final Clinton margin in polling, according to 538, was 3,6. The actual margin, was 2.1, which is perfectly within the margin of error and about as accurate as it gets. National polls are in general the most accurate polls you'll find: they'll usually have larger sample sizes, more thorough methodology, are less prone to region specific errors (more on this later), and there's simply more of them. Of course, the EC screwed her over, but as I mentioned before it's possible to take it into account. In 2020, the chances of a Biden win depending on his popular vote margin according to The Economist's G. Elliot Morris are the following: +0-1: 4% to win the electoral college +1-2: 12% +2-3: 30% +3-4: 57% +4-5: 80% +5-6: 93% +6-7: 98% +7-8: 99%
People vote by region almost as much as they vote by state. What I mean by this, is that states are interlinked, with similar states voting similarly. (At the bottom of The Economist's forecast you'll find a handy model for inter-state correlation.). Some notable correlated regions would be the great lakes/Midwest region (MN, WI, MI, IA, OH, PA, MO), the Southwest (CA, NV, AZ, NM, TX - although the correlation between these states is clear, it is looser than in the great lakes/Midwest), The South/Deep South (MS, LA, AR, Alabama, Georgia, SC, NC, TN). There is plenty of overlap though, and some other interesting correlations (Montana is closely tied to the Great Lakes, Maine too). This means, that if polling in one of these regions happens to favour one candidate over another, then it is likely that it has also favoured that same candidate in the other similar states. In practice, this means that if WI, MI and PA all are close, it is likely that one candidate will win all three. And even if the candidate that overperformed regionally didn't win all the states (that would be unlikely), it is likely they did overperform in all similar states. If Biden overperforms in PA, he'll not only likely also win WI and MI but also come much closer in Ohio and Iowa, even if he doesn't win there. In 2016, polling in the Midwest/great lakes overestimated Trump, primarily due to the error of not weighing by education in most state polling (an error that has since mostly been corrected), which is ultimately what won him the White House. In some states, this error was much bigger than others, with WI and IA falling outside the margin of error, whilst PA and MI fell mostly within. These polling errors happen every election, however they very rarely happen to happen exactly where they needed to happen for an upset. Some polling statisticians do for these reasons consider the true margin of error, at least for state polling, to actually be around 7%.
We don't remember 2016's polling because it was wrong, but because the candidate in the lead lost. This is EXTREMELY IMPORTANT. 2016 was an unusually close election in the end, meaning a relatively small error could, and did lead to an upset. Plenty of other US elections have had much worse polling than 2016, but we simply don't remember those elections because the candidate in the lead won. Had Clinton won the election with a 10 point popular vote landslide, that would have been a much, much larger polling error than the one we had, but no one would really have bat an eye because the presumed winner, well, won. Of the 36 national elections (midterms and presidential elections) the US has had where modern polling has been a thing, 34 of those elections had the party/candidate in the lead go on to win the election. The only two elections where polling predicted the wrong winner was of course 2016, and also 1948 (although worth mentioning that there was 1/50th the amount of polling, and it was a lot less scientific in those days). National polls did accurately predict the winner in '18, '14, '12, '10, '08, '06, '04, '02, '00, '98, '96, '94, '92, '90, '88, '84, '82, '80, '78, '76, '74, '72, '70, '68, '66, '64, '62, '60, '58, '56, '54, '52, '50, '44, '40 and '36 (note: there was for some reason no polling for the '86 midterms).
The media is not the same as polling. The media, probably unintentionally, created a narrative in regards to polling. We remember the narrative and general discourse much more than the underlying data, especially if the data goes against our preconceived notions of the race.
The polling situation in 2020
National polling is fantastic for Biden. He's never been below 47% and has stayed at 50% or above for most of the race (compared with Clinton who never got to 50%!). No candidate consistently polling around 50% has ever lost an election (although there are to be fair not a ton of elections to compare it to.) Furthermore, no Incumbent behind in the post-convention polling has ever been re-elected.
If you ignore RCP (more on that later), Biden is doing better in all swing-states than Clinton, with the possible exception of the Midwest (which is more a sign of polling being much better there than in 2016 than him actually doing worse than Clinton).
Texas is as I mentioned earlier, in reach! Trump is of course favoured, but for the first time in decades it's actually looking pretty good! (The senate race on the other hand... well, you can hope for the best at least, but it's very much a long shot). Due to how close the election is in Texas and how big the state is, there actually a fairly good chance Texas ends up being the tipping point state. As it stands, according to Morris from The Economist, the chance of each of the probable tipping point states being the tipping point state is as follows: PA: 22% FL: 17 MI: 14 WI: 8 MN: 6 TX: 5 AZ: 5 NC: 4 VA: 4 GA: 3 NV: 3 NH: 2 NM: 2 CO: 2
2020 is the most stable contest on record. The biggest change in polling for Clinton over the course of a week was 3 points, compared with Biden's biggest change within a week being 1.5 points. Also, the smallest lead Biden has ever had was 3.4, back in mid April, compared with Clinton who was tied in late July (and the RCP average even showed Trump in the lead). Things could suddenly become volatile in Trump's favour, but it's unlikely. Biden and Trump are known quantities, and the civil unrest and COVID-19 are likely to stick around until election (neither of which is helping Trump.) Although support for the protests and BLM has fallen over the last couple of months, support for Trumps handling of the crisis hasn't gone up.
Trump is in a slightly better polling position than in June (and even more slightly better than in July), but he's also closer to election day, and the difference is within the margin of error. It is likely that it will tighten slightly, but it is also quite possible for the race to widen again or simply not move at all.
Why polling shouldn't be ignored
Alright, this is more of an opinion than analysis, but I want to include it anyways.
It lets you know what to target. What are the battlegrounds? Where should I donate? etc,. Well, roughly at least (keep in mind the margin of error and possibility of an upset)
Constantly saying that we're actually way behind is a lot more discouraging. I don't know how you're going to motivate someone by saying that they should think we are hopelessly behind (seriously, if we were 10 points behind at this moment, there would be no possible way for Biden to ever win. Might as well pack up and leave the country!). A lot of potential democrat voters in for example Texas already think their situation is hopeless, EVEN THOUGH IT ISN'T, and focusing on negativity isn't going to motivate them and convince them that their votes do matter, and they do matter!
Election models
RCP - DON'T USE IT! RCP is pretty good for their historical records going back to 2000, but they are in a lot of ways an awful aggregator. Thanks to their method of just picking the five most recent polls and not doing any weighing, they are prone to a lot of phantom swings. I've seen people freak out/read way to much into the RCP average despite the only movement being due to five similarly biased pollsters releasing their polls at roughly the same time. RCP is also clearly partisan and there's little they are doing to hide their right wing bias, and although that in and of itself doesn't disqualify them, the fact that they do not include several high-quality pollsters without giving any reason (they refuse to answer if you ask them). This third aspect is in particular why you shouldn't put to much stock in RCP, since it's not a matter of a misleading model, but a matter of straight-up lying.
538. Ok, 538 is pretty good! Although, there are some issues to take into account. First, they include even some low quality pollsters such as Rasmussen, attempting to weigh them. Silver's philosophy here is that variety is good, and that the occasional error caused by it is cancelled out simply due to the amount of data. Weather or not it's a good way of doing it I can't answer (I don't think anyone has a definitive answer), but it is worth bearing in mind as it has at points during this cycle led to smaller phantom swings. My biggest issue here is with the actual forecast model. Now, I don't think there's anything malicious in regards to how Silver configured his model, but I do think he's become a victim of ego and fear. I get the sense that he's worked a bit to hard on adding uncertainty, not because it is warranted, but because he feels that there should be. See: his use of NYT headlines in his model. Some of the output is also really wonky as a result, with it spitting out some ridiculous results like Biden winning literally every single state except his home state! Also, as some have pointed out, if you look at California which the model gives Trump around 0.36% chance of winning (seems a bit high, but ok, fine), if Trump wins California - according to the model - Biden still has a 25% chance of winning the election. Meaning, of the 40k scenario it produces each day, a dozen of them have Trump winning California yet losing Texas and other states causing him to lose the election. No other model has such a scenario occurring even once. All of this is to say, the 538 forecast has some really wonky behaviour and I don't really trust it. All of that being said, there's most definitely nothing nefarious about it and Silver may very well have some points in regards to uncertainty.
The Economist. Personally my favourite of the bunch. Maybe a bit to certain when it comes to some things, but is in general much clearer in the information it provides than 538 and the data and model itself seems robust and good. All of that being said, Silver is more experienced (although that is not always a good thing), and I wouldn't take even my favourite model as the undisputed truth.
JHK Forecasts. I we're talking about experience this is the forecast with the least experience behind it. I don't know the ins and outs of it, but, from what I can tell it's actually pretty decent! I generally like the UI of this one, even if the sports analogies are potentially problematic, and it also has forecasts for the Senate and House (although once 538 releases their House/Senate forecasts hopefully, I don't really see any reason to use this above 538's). So, do what you will with this one.
Helmut Northrup/Allan Lichtman. Um... feel free to completely ignore these two. Northrup's model is complete nonsense to almost a comedic degree and Lichtman's model, although tempting, is very subjective and most of it's success has had just as much to do with luck as factual inference. Also, the notion that he has predicted every election since 1984 is also a half truth (maybe even a lie!). Also also, polling predicted every election between and including 1950 and 2014, including midterms, which is an even better track record than Lichtman and that's not even including forecasts! Only reason to bring up Lichtman is if you want to feel better, but you can just look at the polls if you want that. And if we're supposed to be on the side of science, I don't think we should spread this around.
Betting Markets... just... don't even think about using them as election models. I could do an entire writeup on how the not only conceptually are an awful idea to use for this purpose, but how the data itself is completely contradictory and in general useless.
I apologize if there's some repetition in the text, I wrote this on two separate occasions, and I wanted to be sure I didn't miss any important detail. Also not a native English speaker, although I hope that wouldn't affect anything. TLDR: Polling good, not perfect. Don't ignore it, but learn how to use it.
Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning October 5th, 2020
Good Saturday morning to all of you here on stocks. I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and is ready for the new trading week ahead. Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning October 5th, 2020.
Trump’s health and fiscal stimulus fight will steer the markets in the week ahead - (Source)
President Donald Trump’s health and the state of a fiscal stimulus package will be the main focus for markets in the coming week. In the early morning hours Friday, President Donald Trump tweeted that he and the first lady tested positive for Covid. Stocks sold off hard, but the S&P 500 came off its lows in Friday trading and closed down just under 1%. It was up 1.5% for the week. The market was helped by signs that a stimulus package is still a possibility, after House Speaker Nancy Pelosi asked airlines not to furlough workers. She promised either a stand alone aid bill, or a bigger negotiated relief legislation that would help the industry. “The market is going to watch health updates from the White House medical staff, and it’s going to watch how the president communicates with the public,” said Julian Emanuel, head of equities and derivatives at BTIG. “Will we see him in person in the next week in any form? What’s his volume of tweets? All as a way to first gauge the severity of the case.” Trump and Melania Trump are reported to have mild cases, but as time goes on the market will turn to how the illness could impact the presidential election. Former Vice President Joe Biden gained slightly in the polls after the first debate Tuesday night, and now the calendar for further debates is in question. The market has seemingly warmed to Biden, and even though he would raise taxes, it is assumed Democrats would quickly pass a major infrastructure package if there is a Democratic sweep of Congress. Trump, however, is widely seen on Wall Street as stronger on the economy and better for markets. “What you’ve done from a campaign perspective, is you’ve taken away the thing that gives him the most energy - his ability to interact with crowds,” said Emanuel. “The president had wanted to paint the economic recovery of the last three or four months as the cornerstone, and this basically puts the virus back as topic number 1, number 2 and number 3. And it’s all the more so because the data is coming in weaker than expected.” The market is fixated on the prospect of stimulus to help business, the unemployed and state and local governments. The House passed a $2.2 trillion package this week, but there is still no agreement with Republicans. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin has pushed for a $1.6 trillion package. “I think there’s an underlying bid under the market because nobody wants to be super short if we get a stimulus approved, but you can’t be too long in case his mild symptoms turn into severe symptoms,” said Scott Redler, partner with T3live.com. “We’re in a tough spot but overall we’re still pretty constructive.” Emanuel said the fact the president is now ill could hurt confidence and slow down some of the improvement in the economy. “The underlying tone is, again, whether its directly or later, there’s going to be stimulus,” Emanuel said. ”’Whether it’s this month or November, this reinforces the need for stimulus because the president falling ill signals to, at the margin, the person whose thinking about going out to dinner to think again. It’s a significant economic and psychological hindrance.” Also coming up in the week ahead is a speech Tuesday by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell to the National Association of Business Economists. Powell is also expected to push for the stimulus package to boost the economy so the recovery does not stall. “I think his whole objective is to try to get Congress and the Administration to sign onto a fiscal rescue package,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics. “He’ll all but come out and say [the recovery] is not a ‘V.’ Without additional support from lawmakers, risks are pretty high that we backtrack. I think that’s the kind of outlook he’s going to give. It’s going to be full-throated.” September’s employment report, released Friday, was seen by some as a warning that the economy is not rebounding as expected. There were 661,000 jobs added in September, well below the 800,000 expected. Besides Powell, there are a half dozen other Fed speakers. There are also minutes from the Fed’s last minute released Wednesday afternoon.
This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:
We've all had versions of this conversation where you or the person you were talking to just couldn't make up their mind. At the end of the day, it only causes trouble and plans are ruined. The market is having its own back and forth this year trying to decide between growth and value. Just today, growth stocks are getting slaughtered while value stocks are up marginally. As an example, the Russell 1000 Growth index is down 1.8% on the day while the Russell 1000 Value index has managed to rally 0.25%. The chart below shows the daily performance spread between the Russell 1000 Growth index and the Russell 1000 Value index for each day in 2020. Today's performance spread between the two indices marks the ninth time this year that value has outperformed growth by more than two percentage points. At the other extreme, there have also been eight trading days where growth outperformed value by more than two percentage points.
So how does this year's frequency of days where the performance spread between the two indices was more than two percentage points stack up to other years? The chart below shows the daily performance spread between the two indices going all the way back to 1990. Over the last thirty years, the only two periods where we saw a frequency of these large daily dislocations was back in 2008 and the period spanning 2000 and 2001. In fact, with 17 days this year where the performance spread between the two indices was greater than two percentage points, the only other years that saw a higher frequency of large dislocations were 2000 (54) and 2001 (28). If you think the market has been indecisive this year, in 2000 we saw these types of daily dislocations an average of once per week.
Election Anxiety Weighs on October Market Performance
October often evokes fear on Wall Street as memories are stirred of crashes in 1929, 1987, the 554-point drop on October 27, 1997, back-to-back massacres in 1978 and 1979, Friday the 13th in 1989 and the 733-point drop on October 15, 2008. During the week ending October 10, 2008, Dow lost 1,874.19 points (18.2%), the worst weekly decline in our database going back to 1901, in percentage terms. March 2020 now holds the dubious honor of producing the worst, second and third worst DJIA weekly point declines. The term “Octoberphobia” has been used to describe the phenomenon of major market drops occurring during the month. Market calamities can become a self-fulfilling prophecy, so stay on the lookout and don’t get whipsawed if it happens. But October has become a turnaround month—a “bear killer” if you will. Twelve post-WWII bear markets have ended in October: 1946, 1957, 1960, 1962, 1966, 1974, 1987, 1990, 1998, 2001, 2002 and 2011 (S&P 500 declined 19.4%). However, eight were midterm bottoms. Over the last 21 years, October’s performance has been solid. Average gains over the last 21-years range from 1.3% by Russell 1000 to 2.4% by NASDAQ. Small caps have still struggled though with Russell 2000 gaining a modest 0.5%
Election-year Octobers rank dead last for Dow, S&P 500 (since 1952), NASDAQ (since 1972), Russell 1000, and Russell 2000 (since 1980). Eliminating gruesome 2008 from the calculation provides a moderate amount of relief, as rankings climb to mid pack. Should a meaningful decline materialize in October it is likely to be an excellent buying opportunity, especially for any depressed technology and small-cap shares.
What Have Democratic Sweeps Meant for the S&P 500?
Headed into the first presidential debate Tuesday night, betting markets (ElectionBettingOdds.com) placed Democratic candidate Joe Biden as the slight favorite to take the White House in November. The debate resulted in Biden gaining another 5 percentage point chance of winning the Presidency. As of this morning, Biden's odds to win are at 59.8% versus Trump's odds of 38.9%. Additionally, Democrats are slight favorites to win control of the Senate (58.4% to 41.5%) and big favorites to maintain the House (82.8% to 17.1%). Given these odds, in the chart below we show the average performance of the S&P 500 from the three months before Election Day through three months after Election Day for all election years post-WWII that resulted in a sweep of the executive and legislative branch by the Democrats. As shown, on average the S&P 500 has been on the decline in the weeks leading up to Election Day, though in the days just before the Election there has been a small rally that sharply reverses once the results come in. After the initial post-Election drop, the market has trended a bit higher, but by three months after the Election, it has only found itself around the same levels as Election Day; on average a 2.6% loss versus where the index stood three months prior.
The composite shown above is comprised of six different years: 1948, 1960, 1964, 1976, 1992, and 2008. While on average the S&P 500 has traded lower, it is not necessarily a sure-fire thing. For example, 1948 and 2008 were the only years that saw the S&P 500 trade and stay significantly lower in the wake of the election. In 1976, there was similarly a sell-off in the immediate aftermath of the election, but the index did make its way back up to the highs of that six-month time frame later on albeit no new high was put in place. Meanwhile, 1960, 1964, and 1992 all saw the S&P 500 run higher after the election even despite some periods of consolidation after initial moves higher. In our B.I.G. Tips report from Tuesday, we show these same charts for all Presidential election years post WWII including a look at the average performance given every potential election outcome.
Even after September's weakness, the S&P 500's trailing 12-month total return stood at an impressive 14.9%. Given the events of the last 12 months, one could even say that performance is remarkable. What's even crazier is that the S&P 500's performance over the last 12 months is more than three times stronger than the 12 month period before that (+4.25%). The chart below compares the S&P 500's annualized total returns over the last one, two, five, ten, and twenty years and compares that performance to the historical average return of the index over those same time periods. The S&P 500's historical average 12-month return is 11.7%, so the current 14.9% gain exceeds that average by more than three full percentage points. Over a two-year window, though, the S&P 500's annualized return of 9.4% is more than a full percentage point below the historical average. Looking further out, the S&P 500's trailing five and ten-year annualized return has been much stronger than average, which makes sense given the long bull market we were in. Over a 20 year window, though, the S&P 500 is only just starting to work off some of the declines from the dot-com bust and as a result, the 6.4% annualized gain is a four and a half percentage points below the long-term average of 10.9%.
Below we show how the current performance of the S&P 500 in each of the time frames shown compares to all other periods on a percentile basis. The S&P 500's performance over the last year, ranks just below 56th percentile of all other periods, while the two-year performance ranks just below the 42nd percentile. Even as the five and ten-year periods have seen well above average returns, they still rank in just the mid-60s on a percentile basis. The S&P 500's ranking over a 20-year time period is a completely different story ranking in single-digits on a percentile basis. Even with the equity market right near record highs, the last two decades have been forgettable for US equities.
There is no denying that market seasonality has not worked so well this year. But we have been here before and history is on our side. Over the long term, intermediate term and short term market seasonality has suffered brief periods when seasonality was overridden by more powerful forces. The COVID pandemic and economic shutdown certainly qualifies. But it is only a matter of time until repetitive human behavior patterns and people and institutions return to moving money around in the usual daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly and seasonal patterns. The return of perennial September weakness is emblematic of a return to normal market behavior and a reflection of the fact that despite the continuing concerns about surges in coronavirus cases life is beginning to return to normal. In our area, about 25-30 miles north of New York City, our kids are beginning hybrid learning, playing rugby, lacrosse and other sports (yes with some COVID protocols, but tackling and facing-off), golf outings are happening and people are going to restaurants and out and about. The chart here shows the historical One-Year Pattern of the S&P 500 Since 1950 versus 2020. The black line shows the seasonal pattern since 1950. The blue represents the pattern since 1988. We use 1988 as it is the first year after the 1987 Crash when the market underwent a major systemic change with the implementation of downside protection circuit breakers and collars. It is noteworthy how the seasonal pattern persists during both the 70-year and 31-year timeframes. 2020 is plotted on the right axis due to the magnitude of the move this year. The yellow box highlights the rebirth of seasonality this September, especially during this notoriously negative Week After Triple Witching Week as detailed page 108 of the 2020 Almanac, indicated by the two black arrows Years like 1980, 1982, 2009 and 2016 with unseasonably early weakness and bear markets like 2020 returned to normal seasonal patterns in short order. And years like 1954, 1958, 1980, 1982, 1995 and 2009 that exhibited double-digit gains in the Worst Six Months still proceeded to deliver further sizable gains in the subsequent Best Six Months (page 52, STA 2020). We believe the return of market seasonality is upon us. So remain cautious through the end of September and be alert to Octoberophobia, but remain ready to pounce on our Best Months Seasonal MACD Buy Signal, when it triggers.
Below are some of the notable companies coming out with earnings releases this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:
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Domino's Pizza, Inc. $433.78
Domino's Pizza, Inc. (DPZ) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:30 AM ET on Thursday, October 8, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $2.73 per share on revenue of $944.53 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $2.83 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 76% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 33.17% with revenue increasing by 15.07%. Short interest has decreased by 31.5% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 7.4% from its open following the earnings release to be 22.3% above its 200 day moving average of $354.71. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 7.3% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 8.2% move in recent quarters.
Paychex, Inc. (PAYX) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 8:30 AM ET on Tuesday, October 6, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.56 per share on revenue of $895.39 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.57 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 49% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 21.13% with revenue decreasing by 9.74%. Short interest has decreased by 9.7% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 2.8% from its open following the earnings release to be 6.0% above its 200 day moving average of $74.91. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, September 18, 2020 there was some notable buying of 1,269 contracts of the $90.00 call expiring on Friday, March 19, 2021. Option traders are pricing in a 4.8% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.1% move in recent quarters.
RPM International Inc. (RPM) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:45 AM ET on Wednesday, October 7, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.21 per share on revenue of $1.49 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.26 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 65% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 27.37% with revenue increasing by 1.17%. Short interest has decreased by 39.7% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 3.3% from its open following the earnings release to be 12.4% above its 200 day moving average of $73.51. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 4.4% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.3% move in recent quarters.
Helen of Troy Ltd. (HELE) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:30 AM ET on Thursday, October 8, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $2.39 per share on revenue of $451.26 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $2.57 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 62% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 18.91% with revenue increasing by 9.00%. Short interest has decreased by 6.4% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 4.4% from its open following the earnings release to be 12.8% above its 200 day moving average of $177.13. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 5.7% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 8.9% move in recent quarters.
Acuity Brands, Inc. (AYI) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 8:40 AM ET on Thursday, October 8, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $2.01 per share on revenue of $814.63 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $2.12 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 46% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 28.21% with revenue decreasing by 13.16%. Short interest has increased by 62.6% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 5.6% from its open following the earnings release to be 4.1% above its 200 day moving average of $101.43. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 5.8% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 9.0% move in recent quarters.
Levi Strauss & Co. (LEVI) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:00 PM ET on Tuesday, October 6, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.27 per share on revenue of $766.84 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.20) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 40% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 187.10% with revenue decreasing by 47.01%. Short interest has increased by 3.9% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 7.3% from its open following the earnings release to be 3.5% below its 200 day moving average of $14.66. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, October 2, 2020 there was some notable buying of 8,166 contracts of the $14.00 call expiring on Friday, October 16, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 10.6% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 6.9% move in recent quarters.
Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc. (LW) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 8:30 AM ET on Wednesday, October 7, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.30 per share on revenue of $877.60 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.28 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 36% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 62.03% with revenue decreasing by 11.26%. Short interest has decreased by 21.7% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 4.1% from its open following the earnings release to be 1.8% below its 200 day moving average of $69.17. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, October 2, 2020 there was some notable buying of 1,580 contracts of the $70.00 call expiring on Friday, October 16, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 8.3% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 6.7% move in recent quarters.
Landec Corp. (LNDC) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:20 PM ET on Tuesday, October 6, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.11 per share on revenue of $127.86 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.09) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 41% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 31.25% with revenue decreasing by 7.82%. Short interest has decreased by 5.1% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 12.3% from its open following the earnings release to be 8.4% below its 200 day moving average of $10.30. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 16.7% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 10.6% move in recent quarters.
Saratoga Investment Corp (SAR) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:00 PM ET on Wednesday, October 7, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.47 per share on revenue of $12.95 million. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 48% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 30.88% with revenue decreasing by 6.75%. Short interest has decreased by 60.5% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 6.3% from its open following the earnings release. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release.
EXFO Inc. (EXFO) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:00 PM ET on Wednesday, October 7, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.07 per share on revenue of $64.85 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.07 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 30% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 40.00% with revenue decreasing by 7.59%. Short interest has decreased by 17.5% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 14.7% from its open following the earnings release. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release.
The MAC’s Week 6 NCAAF ATS Predictions, Trends and Analysis
The MAC’s Week 6 NCAAF ATS Predictions, Trends and Analysis Week 6 NCAAF ATS Predictions, Trends and Analysis Written by Lester Cullen on October 8, 2020 Boom...and we’re in Week 6 of the college football season (Corona Edition), even the SEC came to play. We will take a look at some of our consensus plays and provide some opinion based insight to put together some ATS winners. For starters we will look at the Gators/Aggies matchup. The line has fluctuated from 7 to 6.5 and currently at Caesars Palace the spread is Florida Gators -6.5 -115 and Texas A&M +6.5 -105, linemakers are playing with the juice, moving it around a bit and charging to get the dog, they must think they have the number nailed at a touchdown spread and MAC is looking to beat that number! Florida Gators vs Texas A&M Aggies- The Florida Gators have come out of the gate hot, QB Kyle Trask throwing 10 TD passes through their opening two games of the season. They have busted open the ATS record, going 8-3-1 through their last 12 games a legit 2-0 and ranked No. 4 in the AP poll after Georgia took the lead ahead of them following the Bulldogs win over Auburn. The Aggies are 1-1 to start the season and they have a weak secondary that should get destroyed by the Gators offense. The MAC tends to stay away from Conference games because odds are usually tight & tough, it can be hard to find a solid pick, but our consensus groups have the Gators as a move and with the spread less than a TD this game has value Play - Gators -6.5 (+10 Units) Quick Trends- Over is 4-0 in Gators last 4 games overall. Over is 4-0 in Gators last 4 games as a favorite. Over is 5-0 in Gators last 5 games on grass. Gators are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss. Over is 8-1 in Gators last 9 games as a road favorite Under is 4-0 in Aggies last 4 games following a straight up loss. Over is 4-0 in Aggies last 4 games as a home underdog. Aggies are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall. Aggies are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up loss of more than 20 points. Under is 7-1 in Aggies last 8 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game. Pittsburgh Panthers vs Boston College Eagles - If you look at the recent trends for the Panthers, you see a team that is just 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games. That being said, the Panthers have been winning their games outright, they are 3-1 in the early going of the season, they just can’t get a cover, it’s pathetic, oddsmakers are cashing in on Pitt. The Eagles have been great ATS, covering in 8 of their last 10, but as far as this game, our information is telling us to stay away. Boston College defense has nothing to brag about, unable to stop 3rd conversions makes a case for betting the over, the offense can’t run the ball, averaging 2.4 yards a carry, and they are last in the ACC in both of these categories. Jurkovec has thrown 2 picks, one in the end zone and the Heels took it home for a meaningless win, one good thing is they don’t lose fumbles and are +5 in turnover margin. MAC has Panthers to win this one, the line is -6 and has moved back and forth from 6.5 and 6, but most importantly MAC sees action coming in on the total and is moving on the over, opening at 46 and currently set at 44 this should be an easy 55-60 point game. The trends seems to be the under but going against the grain is why The MAC is one of the most recognized sports gamblers in the industry. MAC’s Final Score Prediction - Pitt 35 - BC 23 Play - Over 44 (+5 Units) Play - Pitt -6 (+5 Units) Quick Trends- Eagles are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up win. Under is 4-0 in Eagles last 4 vs. a team with a winning record. Under is 5-0 in Eagles last 5 games as an underdog Miami Hurricanes vs Clemson Tigers - Given how dominant the Tigers have been in the ACC over the past few years, it is usually a bad idea to bet against them. The odds makers are giving them too much respect, our scouts are saying the line isn’t this high because of public money, it’s an inflated spread and could be a suckers bet. Let’s consider the fact that the Tigers have failed to cover this season and are now on a run of failing to cover in 4 straight games. MAC says play the ML hedge if laying the points, be smart and use bankroll management. The Hurricanes have not had a lot of joy against Clemson in recent years, but are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 versus conference foes. With 43.3 points scored this season they are ranked #7, this could be another over play, though with the total set at 62, we will have to wait to see some line movement before placing any action on it. MAC has no apprehension when it comes to taking a shot and going against the grain, it’s what makes him a Vegas specialty. Take Miami to cover, take them, take the points, and take it to the bank. MAC’s Final Score Prediction - Miami 21 - Clemson 35 Play: Miami +15 (+15 Units) Play: Miami ML +450 (+4 UNITS) Quick Trends- Hurricanes are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game. Hurricanes are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up win. Hurricanes are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 conference games. Hurricanes are 5-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Hurricanes are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 meetings. The Gambling Report
Week 6 NCAAF ATS Predictions, Trends and Analysis courtesy of RedAlertWagers.com
Written by Lester Cullen on October 8, 2020 Website: RedAlertWagers.com Contact: [[email protected]](mailto:[email protected]) Phone: THE RED LINE - (Toll-Free @ 1-844-334-2613) The Red Line - (Toll-Free @ 1-844-334-2613) - Text The Red Line to get a free exclusive release prediction. Follow The MAC on Social Media:
Subscribe toThe Gambling Report on Substack, free for 90 Days - 3-4 emails a month with all the need to know gambling information and trends happening in the industry, picks and predictions as well as direct offers from industry leading online sportsbooks. Presented byRedAlertWagers.com, MAC's Gambling Report dives into some of the best gambling industry news available, interviews with sharks, above and underground bookies, poker experts, casino operators and oddsmakers all packaged up and sent directly to you -Free for 90 days or subscribe for $39.99 a year Boom...and we’re in Week 6 of the college football season (Corona Edition), even the SEC came to play. We will take a look at some of our consensus plays and provide some opinion based insight to put together some ATS winners.
For starters we will look at the Gators/Aggies matchup. The line has fluctuated from 7 to 6.5 and currently at Caesars Palace the spread is Florida Gators -6.5 -115 and Texas A&M +6.5 -105, linemakers are playing with the juice, moving it around a bit and charging to get the dog, they must think they have the number nailed at a touchdown spread and MAC is looking to beat that number!
FloridaGatorsvsTexasA&MAggies The Florida Gators have come out of the gate hot, QB Kyle Trask throwing 10 TD passes through their opening two games of the season. They have busted open the ATS record, going 8-3-1 through their last 12 games a legit 2-0 and ranked No. 4 in the AP poll after Georgia took the lead ahead of them following the Bulldogs win over Auburn. The Aggies are 1-1 to start the season and they have a weak secondary that should get destroyed by the Gators offense. The MAC tends to stay away from Conference games because odds are usually tight & tough, it can be hard to find a solid pick, but our consensus groups have the Gators as a move and with the spread less than a TD this game has value Play - Gators -6.5 (+10 Units) QuickTrends-
Over is 4-0 in Gators last 4 games overall.
Over is 4-0 in Gators last 4 games as a favorite.
Over is 5-0 in Gators last 5 games on grass.
Gators are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss.
Over is 8-1 in Gators last 9 games as a road favorite
Under is 4-0 in Aggies last 4 games following a straight up loss.
Over is 4-0 in Aggies last 4 games as a home underdog.
Aggies are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
Aggies are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up loss of more than 20 points.
Under is 7-1 in Aggies last 8 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
PittsburghPanthersvsBostonCollegeEagles If you look at the recent trends for the Panthers, you see a team that is just 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games. That being said, the Panthers have been winning their games outright, they are 3-1 in the early going of the season, they just can’t get a cover, it’s pathetic, oddsmakers are cashing in on Pitt. The Eagles have been great ATS, covering in 8 of their last 10, but as far as this game, our information is telling us to stay away. Boston College defense has nothing to brag about, unable to stop 3rd conversions makes a case for betting the over, the offense can’t run the ball, averaging 2.4 yards a carry, and they are last in the ACC in both of these categories. Jurkovec has thrown 2 picks, one in the end zone and the Heels took it home for a meaningless win, one good thing is they don’t lose fumbles and are +5 in turnover margin. MAC has Panthers to win this one, the line is -6 and has moved back and forth from 6.5 and 6, but most importantly MAC sees action coming in on the total and is moving on the over, opening at 46 and currently set at 44 this should be an easy 55-60 point game. The trends seems to be the under but going against the grain is why The MAC is one of the most recognized sports gamblers in the industry. MAC’sFinalScorePrediction- Pitt 35 - BC 23 Play-Over 44 (+5 Units) Play-Pitt -6 (+5 Units) QuickTrends:
Eagles are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up win.
Under is 4-0 in Eagles last 4 vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 5-0 in Eagles last 5 games as an underdog
MiamiHurricanesvsClemsonTigers Given how dominant the Tigers have been in the ACC over the past few years, it is usually a bad idea to bet against them.The odds makers are giving them too much respect, our scouts are saying the line isn’t this high because of public money, it’s an inflated spread and could be a suckers bet. Let’s consider the fact that the Tigers have failed to cover this season and are now on a run of failing to cover in 4 straight games. MAC says play the ML hedge if laying the points, be smart and use bankroll management. The Hurricanes have not had a lot of joy against Clemson in recent years, but are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 versus conference foes. With 43.3 points scored this season they are ranked #7, this could be another over play, though with the total set at 62, we will have to wait to see some line movement before placing any action on it.MAC has no apprehension when it comes to taking a shot and going against the grain, it’s what makes him a Vegas specialty. Take Miami to cover, take them, take the points, and take it to the bank. MAC’sFinalScorePrediction- Miami 21 - Clemson 35 Play:Miami +15 (+15 Units) Play:Miami ML +450 (+4 UNITS) QuickTrends:
Hurricanes are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
Hurricanes are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up win.
Hurricanes are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 conference games.
Hurricanes are 5-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
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Week 11 Game Previews, Expert NFL Predictions, Live Betting Odds, Trends & Analysis Closing Line
Bob gives us his NFL Week 16 Against The Spread picks. He gives us his favorite games of the week with a deeper look into the trends and analysis around those games. He finishes up with his quick ... HOW to use MYSQL for sports betting trends? ... NHL Sports Betting Analysis & Picks - 20.2.2017 ... Underdog Chance 82 views. 17:45. 2018 NFL Football Sports Betting Handicapping System, Strategy ... Building a power rating system is a way a lot of people try to bet on sports. There are a lot of ways to go about doing this but most importantly you have to... Bet Labs Full Tour - Historical Odds Database Sports Betting Software - Sports Insights Video - Duration: 9:25. Sports Insights Recommended for you Sports Betting Trends & Angles Week of October 25 Bang The Book. ... Reaction & Analysis - GMFB on NFL Network Bùi Nghịch 1,092 ... The Bettor’s Box MLB Betting Podcast June 29, 2020 ...
