Hello everyone!
To repeat what the title said, ten months ago I responded to a prompt:

[WP] When out in the woods, you discover a cave that leads to a world that operates under Pokémon logic... And find that you have an innate ability to tame the monsters of this world.

The idea absolutely gripped me - and now I’ve published a novel inspired by that prompt and my love of monster taming games! Here’s the details:

Two suns, foreign plants, and a whole slew of monsters to tame.
Amateur entomologist and reluctant Life Scout, Caleb finds far more than he expected when he stumbles through a hidden cave and into a new world full of Kritt - monsters that can be tamed and taught to fight. He also didn’t expect evil overlords and their minions looking to use the power of Kritt to grind this world under their bootheel.
Unless someone stops them, that is.
Once meeting Antoinette, an affectionate ant Kritt that bonds with Caleb, and Karla, a tamer of this world that’s living off the land and preparing to strike back against the Darkholds, they set off. Their goal? Help free the people of this world from the Overseer’s grasp. A mountain’s worth of threats stand in their way, though: the Overseer’s soldiers, terrible abominations, wild Kritt, and all the trouble Caleb’s sarcastic mouth can cause.
Welcome, Caleb, to the world of Kritt. Now evolve - or perish.

Into the Tall Grass is a Portal Fantasy/Isekai book with strong gamelit elements.
FAQ
Harem/Sex/Murder?
Nope. This story is designed to capture the feel of those classic games, and while it does have higher stakes than those games, it is designed to capture the light-hearted feel that we all love.
Audiobook?
Nothing yet announced, but I’ll update if there is one!
Stats?
Into the Tall Grass is a stat light gamelit, and the stats do not appear explicitly until later in the book once Caleb gets his totally-not-a-Pokedex goggles. The later books in the series will have more detailed stats as Caleb delves further into the system that runs this world.
Shorts?
They’re comfy and easy to wear.
Where do I catch the book?
Well, you first need to learn HM Cut, go to the hole in the wall after beating the second boss...or you can just get it on Amazon
Amazon US Link - UK | CA | AU | DE | MX | JP | IN | BR | FR | ES | IT | NL
I want to sample before I pick up?
Well, good news for you - just read on!
Caleb Cooper slapped at his arm with a growl. Another mosquito. He wouldn’t have said camping was his least favorite activity in the world. Even at sixteen, he could easily imagine worse ways to spend his time. He could have his feet dipped in acid, or be stabbed in the back repeatedly, or repeat algebra. But no one was forcing him to do any of those, because he’d passed algebra and hadn’t angered any Bond villains lately.
“C’mon, try to smile some,” his dad said, walking up behind him and shaking his back. “What more could you want? We’ve got the great outdoors, we’ve got trees, we’ve got sun, we’ve got fresh air...this is perfect!”
Caleb sighed. “Oh, yeah, surrounded by kids who’re still in junior high. It’s everything a growing teen could want. Toxic plants, the sun, brats who think I’m a weirdo, the sun again...what’s not to love? You know, I could be going to a party tonight.”
His dad’s smile didn’t waver. “You do so love the party scene. I mean, the last one you went to was...Jimmy Dryer’s eighth birthday party? Getting wild up in the hizzouse there.”
“Okay, dad, I need to tell you two things. First of all, if you say hizzouse out loud, ever again, I will die. I will literally fall over dead from embarrassment. No, I know the correct definition of literally and I am using it correctly, that is actually what will happen. Do you want to be responsible for filicide via intense shame?”
“I’m positive that’s not actually possible.”
“Oh, it totally is. Remember Becky? Died last year because her mom was singing ‘Ain’t nuthin but a G Thang.’ Sure, they say Becky changed schools because they moved, but it was all a cover up. Heard her mom singing and pow!” Caleb punched a closed fist into his empty hand. “dropped over dead.”
His dad laughed. “Noted. And the second thing?”
“You might have picked up subtle hints about this, what with me mentioning it no less than two hundred and ninety eight times on the drive down here according to you. I don’t really like camping.”
There was a long pause, and his dad’s face fell. Caleb immediately winced, but it was too late. “You used to beg to go out every year, remember?”
Yeah, in like 8th grade. When all his friends had been in boy scouts with him, and he’d been able to spend time with them. But high school had come, and his friends had moved on. But the Coopers came from a long line of Eagle scouts. His dad was an Eagle Scout, his grandfather had been an Eagle Scout, and Caleb’s dad would be damned if his son wasn’t an Eagle Scout. “Right,” Caleb muttered. “Sorry, I’ll give it a chance. I’m sure once I get back in the groove it’ll be fine.”
“That’s the spirit!” His dad’s face lit back up.
Caleb gave him an expression that could have been a grin if you squint hard enough. “Awesome. I’m going to...head out.” He turned to trundle off into the woods.
“Where are you going?” his dad asked.
Caleb held up a glass. “Going to see if I can find an Acorn Weevil. There’s a lot of oaks around here, and I’d like one for the collection.”
It was the one part of the outdoors Caleb enjoyed -- catching insects. It was a bit of an odd hobby, but Caleb was a bit of a junior entomologist and enjoyed it. He was thinking about going to college for entomology after he graduated. Something about the wide variety of possible insects, finding things that people usually overlooked, categorizing them...it was calming. He had several glass cases of them pinned at home, many of them gathered from scouting trips like these.
Naturally, it was the one part of the outdoors his dad didn’t like. His father turned green and motioned for Caleb to go ahead. “Don’t wander too far!” he shouted.
Yeah, yeah. It wasn’t like he could go too far even if he wanted to. The campsite was in the middle of a series of mid-Missouri bluffs, and wandering more than an hour’s walk would inevitably lead to a solid rock wall. Or a road.
Step by step, the sounds of the rest of the boy scout troop receded in the forest behind him. Caleb let out a sigh of relief. He was the only high schooler still in the troop, and a lot of the older kids thought he had to be some kind of loser to still be doing this at his age.
They aren’t wrong, Caleb thought. Just not for the right reasons. Being a boy scout isn’t what made him a loser. It was his complete lack of social life at high school, relegated only to a few other dorks at lunch who he didn’t really hang out with, and the fact that he collected bugs when most people were going to parties or making out or getting drunk or playing video games or even playing Magic: The Gathering - that made him a loser.
That’s right. The MTG kids could look down on him for bug collecting. Was that fair? Obviously, they deserved someone who they could look down on too, and Caleb understood that unlike their weird hobby, his weird hobby was also gross. Still, didn’t he deserve the same? Someone he could silently judge and feel superior to? But, no, the only ones lower than him on the social hierarchy were kids with actual issues, and Caleb didn’t want to be that kind of jerk.
The worst part was, he felt bad for not enjoying the scouts anymore. If his dad had planned these trips as one on one things, where they could go out and find rare insects, or even some other wildlife finding things like birdwatching or something, Caleb would have loved their trips as much as he used to. Well, probably. Maybe. I’d like it better if I knew this was the alternative, Caleb amended. These days, however, he’d found most of the insects at their usual camping sights. He actually had an acorn weevil already, but there was no way his dad would remember it - since his dad didn’t really look beyond his own wants. He wanted an Eagle Scout, so an Eagle Scout Caleb would be.
Especially after what had happened with mom. Dad had become rabid about father-son activities since then. “It’s just the two of us now,” Dad said once, when he’d had a bit too much to drink after work. “Just the two of us.”
Caleb shook his head and brushed away a tree branch before it could slap him in the face. The stinging in his eyes was a good reminder why he didn’t want to go down that particular rabbit hole.
A little while later, as he had expected, Caleb found himself at one of the bluffs. It was a solid expanse of rock, covered in creeping vines. The tendrils would be crawling with acrobat ants, which made them a nice place to stop because they’d keep the wasp population down in the region. Maybe I could try to find a nest. Maybe even a queen. That thought he discarded - it would be a prize, but the only way he’d ever add an ant queen to his collection would be if he found one dead. It felt different than taking a single insect and putting it on his board. Taking a queen could wipe out an entire colony.
When I finish college, I’ll get a whole terrarium. Then I can have living ones. That way I’ll get to enjoy my insects in peace and make sure I never ever have people invite themselves over. They’ll be all ‘oh, can I come over’ and I’ll be like ‘sure, don’t mind the ants.’ And then I’ll have alienated another person! That would be better and would make him feel better about what he did. Even the knowledge that he was killing bugs sapped the fun out of his hobby. Of course, that same hobby would also guarantee his adulthood was as lonely as his teenage years, so maybe…
“Gah!” Caleb cried, and kicked a rock at the bluff. It was stupid and childish, but it helped with the frustration. He leapt to the side to avoid the rebound.
He needn’t have bothered. The rock went straight through the vines instead of plinking off the bluff. Caleb froze, then slowly started inching toward the barrier. Is that a...cave? He reached out, brushing some vines away, only to reveal a cave on the side of the cliff. It went back a good twenty or thirty feet in a crevice easily large enough for him to walk through before vanishing into darkness.
Bet I could find something new in there. He groaned. Because amateur spelunking has such a high success rate. That can’t possibly go wrong. Oh, wait, I’m thinking of...actually, I don’t know anything where amateur is a good thing.
Ignoring the warnings of his own hindbrain, something he was exceptionally good at, Caleb flipped on his flashlight. While he wasn’t a big fan of being a scout, their motto of “Be Prepared” had stuck with him more firmly than he cared to admit. Summoning his courage, he headed inside.
The cave was large enough for him to walk upright, at least. I wonder if anyone’s ever even been in here before? It was possible he was the first human to ever notice this cave hiding behind the vines, that his were the first human footsteps in this cave. Who knew what could be ahead? Hell, if it went deep enough, he might discover an entirely new species - cave ecologies were often very isolated from the rest of the world.
That thought overrode the lingering fears of going spelunking alone, and Caleb pushed ahead. To his relief, the cave didn’t really branch off anywhere, so there was only a miniscule risk he’d find himself wandering in circles. It wasn’t long until he was plunged entirely into darkness aside from his flashlight.
“You have now left the domain of the sun,” Caleb said in his best announcer voice. He’d heard that line from…was it a webcomic? Or a blog? He couldn’t remember, and that train of thought was derailed as his heart started to beat faster. The primal fear of the dark still clung to him, and he wasn’t as certain as he’d been at the outset that this was a good idea. Given he’d been fairly certain this was a terrible idea, that was saying something. Just as he was about to turn around, he saw it.
It looked like an ant, but it wasn’t like any ant Caleb had seen before. It was large, nearly a foot from mandibles to thorax, and too brightly colored to be a normal cave dweller with its exoskeleton covered in gold and black swirls. Its eyes were wrong, too, looking more like something you’d see on a mammal than on an insect. It should have been frightening, but somehow, it was oddly cute. The gentle eyes, the way it moved awkwardly, like it was a newborn that hadn’t quite grown into its legs...it had an overall appearance of helplessness. It looked up at Caleb and chirped curiously.
Holy crap. “Well, hello there,” Caleb said. “What are you?”
The strange ant chirped again. I have to catch it. It was too big for his glass jar, but that didn’t matter. It also didn’t matter that his dad would refuse to let Caleb bring it back alive. Caleb would find a way, damn it. This wasn’t just a new species, this was an insect that shouldn’t be possible. Ants didn’t get this big, and certainly not in caves. Caleb reached out a tentative hand.
What the hell are you doing? he thought. He knew nothing about the thing. It could be venomous. It could be dangerous. It was a wild animal, and he was trying to pet it?
Much to his surprise, the ant didn’t recoil from his hand or lunge at it. Instead, it studied it curiously, then rolled over on its back and began to wave its legs in the air like a cat trying to get attention, chirping happily.
Screw it. Caleb ran his fingers over the thing’s belly. It made a sound halfway between a chirp and a purr, almost like a trill. “Oh my God, I have to find a way to keep you. What do you eat?”
Not that he expected the ant to answer. He didn’t expect the ant to respond at all, besides continuing to make happy little trills as Caleb gave it a belly rub. Its exoskeleton was softer than he expected, covered with fine hairs that probably served to keep off water but also made it unimaginably soft. Already Caleb wasn’t thinking about the enormity of the discovery, he was thinking about taking it for walks around the block, or letting it chase a laser pointer.
Then, abruptly, the ant fell silent and righted itself. It hissed in Caleb’s direction.
He froze, shying back and running his hand through his own hair.. “Woah? What’s wrong? Too many tummy rubs?”
And then he realized the ant wasn’t staring at him. It was staring over his shoulder.
Caleb spun, whipping the flashlight around, and came face to face with an oncoming monstrosity. It was a bipedal insect creature with four limbs, nearly as tall as Caleb was. The upper limbs ended in vicious stingers, and the lower limbs had grasping pincers. Instead of mandibles, it had tentacles growing from under its six beady eyes.
That flashlight saved Caleb’s life. The creature shied back, its eyes glowing in the brilliant light.. The ant screeched and began to run deeper into the cave. That seemed smart. Panicked by the monstrosity, Caleb followed.
This isn’t happening. The sound of Caleb’s feet pounding against the floor of the cave filled his ears. His heartbeat joined the sound, and the light swung wildly. He was gaining on the ant. A surge of adrenaline hit, and Caleb reached down to scoop it up. The ant trilled in confusion, and lacking anything else to do, Caleb put it on his head without breaking stride. He kept running, the ant now turning behind him and shrieking more and more. It's gaining on us! Caleb could almost imagine it saying.
Then the light ahead grew bright. Without warning, he was back out into the forest, into the sun.
The monstrosity skidded to a halt near the entrance of the cave, waving its tentacles and roaring but refusing to enter the sunlight. Caleb was fine with that. Caleb was fine with doing nothing but running at a breakneck pace, his new friend sitting on his head and now trilling in defiance. Darting forward, he wove in and out of the trees, turning to avoid tripping over rocks. At one point, his vision a fog of panic, he was thought he jumped a stream.
It wasn’t until his lungs started to burn that Caleb started to slow down. A few steps later, he dropped to the forest floor, panting.
After a few minutes of gasping, he took stock of his surroundings. With dawning horror, four realizations hit him. The first was that he’d somehow run through a bluff that stretched for a hundred miles in less than a day. The second was that the trees didn’t look like anything native to Earth, let alone Missouri. That alien impression was greatly aided by the fact that there were two suns overhead, one red and one yellow, which was number three. Multiple suns were kind of a big one. Finally, and most importantly, he had completely lost track of where he was in relation to the cave.
Panic seized him, and Caleb plucked the ant off his head with shaking hands and held it across his knees, on its back. It came to Caleb so naturally that he didn’t even think about the fact that his panic response was to cuddle a strange animal until after he had. The ant looked up at him with eyes full of warmth and gratitude. “Where the hell am I?” he asked.
In response, the ant started to purr.
Chapter 2
After a bit, the ant began to struggle. “I can’t just keep calling you ‘the ant,” Caleb said to it as he put it down. The ant looked up at him and clacked its mandibles. “Hmm. Don’t know if you’re a girl and or a boy ant. Although if you’re eusocial, those terms probably don’t matter anyway. You’re not a queen or you’d be in your hive, so...are you a soldier? Or a worker?”
Maybe it was Caleb’s imagination, but the ant seemed to be happier with the word soldier. That’s probably just wishful thinking. You need to get your priorities in order, man. You’re in a world with two suns, you should be flipping out right now! And yet, he felt strangely calm. Maybe it was just because the whole thing was so surreal. Or maybe it was just because he expected at any moment to wake up back in his tent with the story of a crazy dream. Or maybe you’ve just snapped, and any moment now you’re going to realize you’re completely barking mad. Caleb shook his head. If he was dreaming or crazy, there was no point trying to figure it out. Either he’d wake up, or he’d be put in a nice padded room and given pills until he could see things normally. “How about Antoinette?” he said.
The Ant - Antoinette - began to bob its head and marched over to Caleb’s hand, pressing its head against his palm until he started to scratch it. Might as well think of you as a she, he thought. Giving her a name seemed to have done the trick, and Antoinette was now trilling and purring happily against his hand. “So, Antoinette, don’t suppose you know if I’ve gone crazy or anything, do you?”
Antoinette was not particularly eager to respond. After some time scratching and spacing out, Caleb shook his head. “If this is all real, I have to start thinking of what comes next,” he said to Antoinette. “C’mon girl, let’s get moving.” As soon as Caleb stood, Antoinette reared onto her hind legs. Smiling, Caleb scooped her up and put her on his shoulder. Even though she was nearly as long as a cat, she weighed about half as much. That, plus the long years of scouts giving Caleb at least some muscles to work with, meant she could stay on his shoulder easily. “Okay. Let’s go back and see if that thing is gone from the cave, right?”
Immediately Antoinette’s demeanor changed. She began to shiver and rubbed against his cheek. “You can’t possibly understand me,” Caleb said. Antoinette continued to shiver and rub, and Caleb decided it had to be his imagination. Even if Antoinette seemed to be more along the lines of a small mammal in terms of intelligence than an ant, there was no way she had the intelligence of a human - and even if she did, she couldn’t speak or understand English. She was probably just picking up on his nerves over returning. As he turned to retrace his steps, he reached up and began to stroke her back. “Don’t worry. If it’s still there, I won’t be going anywhere near it.”
Antoinette’s shivers seemed to subside. “Totally a coincidence,” Caleb said with a nervous chuckle. “No way you understand anything I’m saying.”
The look she sent his way could easily be called reproachful.
The trees here really weren’t like anything he’d ever seen before. They towered over his head, looking more like giant, single ferns than they did like trees. There weren’t any visible roots, they all just shot out of the ground. At the top they branched oddly, feathering into individual strands that were covered with tiny leaves that grew away from the rest of the body of the plant, maximizing the sunlight its green blade could get. It was a relief to see those tiny leaves on the trees though - up until then, between that and the giant ant, he was beginning to worry he’d somehow been shrunk and was walking among giant blades of grass.
As soon as he had the thought, he couldn’t quite shake it, but too many other things were wrong for that to be the case. The dirt was still normal sized, not huge chunks like they would be if he’d shrunk coming over here, and there weren’t any obvious giant landmarks to indicate he was tiny. Still, it was a strange feeling, and he was relieved when he found the stream from earlier. That had to be normal sized. Water wouldn’t flow with that kind of babble if it was shrunk down, not unless it was hundreds of feet wide from his perspective.
The relief was almost immediately quashed when he realized that he didn’t recognize this part of the stream at all. He hadn’t exactly been taking in the scenery, but he still had expected to at least recognize something. Unfortunately, nothing about this part of where he was looked even remotely familiar. He grimaced. “Is this where we were?” he said aloud.
Antoinette trilled, an almost sad sound. It was like she was saying “I have no idea, you think I was paying attention?” Caleb had to laugh at himself. Already he was assigning actual full sentences to Antoinette. “Okay, well, rule one,” Caleb told her. “Head downstream. It will take me to somewhere eventually, and hopefully that somewhere will include someone who has the faintest idea what the hell is going on and how I can get back to the cave.”
Resolution made, he started to walk in that direction. It was a beautiful day here in...wherever this was, and thus far - joy upon joys - he hadn’t seen a single mosquito. As long as he was stuck in this weird dream or psychotic break or whatever was going on, he was going to enjoy it. He did see a few more traditional insects climbing along the fern-trees he’d marveled at before, which was nice. It helped him feel less like he was tiny walking in a giant world. As much as he wanted to, he resisted the urge to peer down for a closer look at them. Right now they were tiny specs climbing along in rows, and if he didn’t look too closely he could tell himself they were just normal ants. The moment he did, he was certain he’d notice things that would mark them of nothing from Earth, and that idea straight up terrified him.
“Yes, that’s right,” he said to the foot-long ant on his shoulder. “The terrifying thought is the insects here might be different. Crap on a stick, I am going insane.”
There was definitely a spring in his step as he walked, but not from how happy he was feeling. It was like every step carried a little bit...extra. It added to the surreal quality of everything. He’d noticed it before when he’d been running down the hill, but now that he was fully aware of how he was moving and a bit less panicked, he could really feel it. “Oh yeah,” he said. “Definitely dreaming.”
And since this is a dream... He reached up and carefully pried Antoinette from his shoulder. She chirruped in confusion. “Don’t worry, girl,” he said, placing her on the ground. “I’ll be right back. I just want to test something.”
Antoinette cocked her head at him, and Caleb grinned. Then, tensing up his legs, he kicked off the ground.
And went sailing through the air. “Oh my God!” he shouted. He’d had a decent high jump before, but this...it took him nearly ten feet into the air. He whooped in excitement and pumped his fist as he reached the apex of his jump. He could see over the fern trees! He could see smoke in the direction he was walking! He could see...he could see a bird.
It wasn’t like any bird he’d ever imagined. It was soaring through the air like a hawk, but its feathers were red and blue, and its face was more like a reptile’s than a bird’s. It looked almost like an archeopteryx, but without the claws on its wings, and with three massive feathers streaming out behind it. It wheeled in the air. It was beautiful.
Then gravity reminded him that, while he could jump high, he wasn’t able to fly. Caleb began to fall. The fall was faster than it should have been, given his leap. It felt like he was falling in normal gravity. Okay, this is it. I fall, and right before I hit the ground, I wake-
The thought was cut off when he slammed into the dirt beneath him. The impact drove the air from his lungs, which was the only thing that spared him from crying out in pain. He tasted blood, and his vision was obscured by black spots. Caleb could only whimper. He collapsed to the ground in a heap. What little of his brain was still working confirmed that he hadn't actually shattered his legs. The rest of it just screamed in pain. This isn’t a dream. That was now painfully clear. Dreams couldn’t possibly hurt this badly.
Antoinette walked up to him and nudged him with her mandibles. When he didn’t respond right away, she climbed onto his chest and began that rumbling trill. Caleb could only wheeze as he tried to catch his breath. Antoinette studied him, and a long tongue raced out of her mouth to lick his forehead. “Thanks,” he managed to grunt, glad she was so much lighter than a cat - otherwise she’d be crushing his chest. “No, really.”
It took him a few more minutes to stand again, and only when he was able to was he certain he hadn’t broken any bones. He took a few deep breaths, feeling an ache across his entire back. “I saw some smoke ahead,” he said to Antoinette, who was clawing at his leg. “I really hope that’s a town, and that they can help. And also that they have painkillers. I’d kill someone for some painkillers.”
Antoinette clacked her mandibles.
“No, I mean, it would have to be someone I didn’t like!”
Antoinette kept clawing his jeans and Caleb shook his head. “Mind walking alongside me for a bit? I need...I need a new back. And legs. Really just a new body. Phew. Give me some time to recover.”
Antoinette stopped clawing and trilled sadly. Again, Caleb was struck with the distinct impression she could understand him. But that doesn’t make sense, he thought. There’s no way she could. It’s just...insane.
“You there!”
The sudden shout nearly made Caleb scream, and he whirled to face the speaker. Antoinette did as well, hissing.
“You need to step away from the Kralant. I don’t want you getting hurt.”
The man was wearing something that looked like a military uniform from the eighteen hundreds, black and red with buttons that pinned up far on the left side of his body. He wore a cap that matched the color of his suit, and he stood with a rigid formality. For all that, he looked like he couldn’t be much older than Caleb.
More interestingly, however, the bird Caleb had seen earlier was perched on his shoulder. “You...want me to move away from Antoinette?” Caleb asked, trying to register what he was seeing.
“You...named it?” the soldier said, sounding incredulous. The bird on his shoulder peered at Antoinette hungrily, and Antoinette clacked her mandibles and hissed. She showed none of the fear she had towards the monstrosity in the cave. The soldier only frowned. “Who are you?”
“Caleb,” Caleb said, narrowing his eyes. “Who are you?”
“I am Ruzo, First Private of the Darkhold Omal. This is Silv.” The bird chirped at its name, although it didn’t take its eyes off Antoinette.
“I’m sorry, you called Antoinette a Kralant and seemed surprised I named her. Is Silv its name, or is it it's species?”
“He,” Ruzo said, stressing the word, “is a Silvtherix. I named him Silv.”
“Wow, very original name there.” Caleb couldn’t help himself. Something about Ruzo’s attitude was rubbing him the wrong way. It was his imperious demeanor, like he owned the place. Who the hell does he think he is?
“Says the boy who named a Kralant Antoinette,” Ruzo said, although he flushed a bit at mockery. “I need you to come with me, Caleb. These woods are forbidden. I thought you’d just gotten lost, but since you’re a Tamer...clearly you’re in violation of the Treaty. Put your hands behind your back.”
“Okay, first of all, working Antoinette’s species into her name is a brilliant pun. I didn’t just chop off part of the name and call it good. Second of all - put my hands behind my back?” Caleb asked. “Who the hell do you think you are?”
“First private of the Darkhold Omal,” Ruzo said, repeating his earlier words and with the same drilled in efficiency. “Who do you serve, Caleb?”
“Oh. Uh. Well...I’m with Troop One-Eighteen,” Caleb said, uncertain what else to say. “Boy Scouts, United States of America. And, private, I’m a Life Scout. So, yeah. Shove that up your craphole and spin on it.”
It was pretty clear that Ruzo had no idea what anything else Caleb said meant, but his eyes narrowed at the last sentence. “I don’t know who you serve. But clearly, someone needs to teach you manners.” He swung out his arm. “Silv! Attack!”
With a shriek that put a chill into Caleb’s bones, Silv took to the air.
In response, Antoinette let out a hiss of challenge.
Oh you’ve got to be kidding me, Caleb thought, squaring up.
I’ve definitely gone insane. But the pain in his back reminded him that insanity was much less certain than he’d previously believed. He could be absolutely certain of one thing, however - he had no idea what he was doing.
Silv shrieked as he swooped through the air, diving for Antoinette. Caleb couldn’t help but notice how dangerously curved those talons were, each ending in wicked barbs. It looked like they could tear through flesh like razorblades. “Antoinette, do...something!” Caleb shouted in panic.
As soon as the words left his lips, he felt something. It was almost like a tug on his skin, but it was a strange and alien feeling. Like part of him had been yanked away. Antoinette leapt to the side, snapping her mandibles. Silv passed through the space she had just vacated, his talons clutching only empty air. Confidence flashed through Ruzo’s eyes. “Do something? That’s the best you have? Silv is going to tear your Kralant apart.”
Caleb’s heart started to pound. In the games, the monsters would always faint at the end of fights, then there would be a heroic rush to town and the monster would be cured. Looking at those talons, it was hard to imagine this fight would be that harmless. “Antoinette, do something ranged this time!” Caleb said, frantically going through his pockets. That strange tug happened again, but Caleb ignored it. He needed to help.
A meme he’d seen the other day on his phone flashed through his mind as he frantically patted his pockets, modified for his current situation. “I’ve had Antoinette for only half a day, but if anything happens to her I’d kill everyone in this field and then myself.” Really, Caleb? You’re watching a pair of monsters fighting for their lives and the best you have are memes and vague commands? It’s not like he could do much else. He didn’t really have any kind of weapons on him. A simple Swiss army knife, too small to be used for actually fighting anyone. Not that he had any idea if he could actually bring himself to stab Ruzo. The guy was an ass, but Caleb had never hurt a fly.
Well. Metaphorically speaking. He’d squished plenty of flies in his day.
Besides that, he didn’t have much else. A can of bug spray. Some twine. A granola bar, still in its wrapper. A zippo lighter. A...wait, that’s it. Caleb looked back up to the fight as he pulled four of the items out of his pocket, trying desperately to get his hands shaking at another terrifying scream from Silv.
Silv was circling the fight, staring down at Antoinette with eyes full of fury. Ruzo was watching Caleb with a curious expression, as if he were trying to figure out what kind of stupid thing Caleb was going to do next. Oh, if you had any idea how stupid I was about to be, you’d be...very...uh...shocked? Antoinette was on the ground, watching Silv carefully.
“Now!” Ruzo shouted.
Silv screamed and dove towards Antoinette. The Kralant had never seemed so small before, but she held her ground, her mandibles pointing towards the sky.
Then, the moment Silv got close, Antoinette let loose a spray. It was white and stringy, almost like spider silk. Silv flapped his wings hard, letting a gust of air blow the strands away. Where they touched the dirt they sizzled like acid. Caleb’s eyes widened. “Holy crap, what was that?”
Antoinette trilled happily and rose up on her hind legs, letting loose another barrage of caustic strands. Silv took to the air, getting out of range, and screeched in fury at having its attack interrupted. “You really don’t know?” Ruzo said, his eyes hard. “You’re an absolute moron, aren’t you?”
“Yeah? Well, would a moron be doing this?” Caleb responded. It wasn’t exactly the witty repartee he’d been hoping for. With the distraction the battle had provided him, he’d managed to tie the zippo around the bug spray and held up his prize.
“...it seems one would,” Ruzo said, his forehead creasing. “What the hell is that supposed to be?”
Silv dove down towards Antoinette again, banking to dodge the spray of acidic webbings. In response, Caleb flicked the zippo opened and stepped forward. A small flame sprang to life, and Ruzo’s eyes widened. “What are you doing?” he shouted. Caleb ignored it. He pressed down on the top of the bug spray.
The fine mist met the flame of the zippo and flamed to life. Silv screeched in sudden fear and pulled back, still several yards from reaching Antoinette. Antoinette whipped her head around and gave Caleb a curious chirp. “That’s right!” Caleb shouted, pointed the improvised weapon at Ruzo. “You think you’re going to hurt Antoinette? I will literally set you on fire.”
Ruzo’s eyes were wide, and Silv flew over to his outstretched arm, landing on it like it was a tree branch. The massive bird looked like it shouldn’t be something Ruzo could hold, but his arm never wavered. “You...are an Artificer? I should have known…” he trailed off, studying Caleb up and down.
“Yeah, that’s right. I’m an Artificer,” Caleb said, hoping the term was descriptive enough to be able to fake what he thought it meant. “I just built a flamethrower. Back down, buddy, or I swear to God I’m going to set you up like a cheap firework.”
Of course, it was a total bluff. Ruzo was a good fifteen feet away. The flame from this thing could go a foot, max. If Ruzo called him on it, Caleb would find himself having to reveal the limits of his homemade weapon very, very quickly. And when he did, what would happen? Would Ruzo send that damn bird after Antoinette again? Or would he send Silv straight after Caleb, trying to tear out his eyes?
Oh man. This is really, really looking bad for me.
“I’m surprised, Artificer,” Ruzo said, reaching up to stroke Silv under the beak. The bird leaned into the touch and chirped. “Entering the battle so early? You must have something serious you’re hiding. Something the Darkhold Olam will want to know. Well, if you wish to make this a test of that…” Silv began to crawl up his arm until their heads were butting together. “I’ll be more than happy to oblige.”
“Yo, you’re talking a pretty big game for someone who’s about to get his ass set on fire,” Caleb said, but the brave words couldn’t stop the tremor in his hands. “Why don’t you stop what you’re doing and go away? I don’t want to hurt you.”
Ruzo laughed, a mocking sound, as Silv began to work around to his back. The bird started to wrap wings around Ruzo’s face, and the spots on his wings matched up perfectly with Ruzo’s eyes. “Don’t worry about that, little Artificer. I promise, I’m in absolutely no danger.”
Their forms began to glow. Caleb took a step back, reflexively pressing down on the button for the bug spray. The flame seemed almost dark when compared to the immense light pouring out both soldier and monster as they began to rise into the air. “Antoinette?” Caleb said, shaking so badly he thought he might fall over. “I think I’d like to wake up now.”
Antoinette cooed in a sound that trembled with fear.
The glow vanished. Ruzo was gone. So was Silv. In their place was a single being, one that combined traits of both monster and man. Ruzo’s hair was now the bright feathers of the bird, his hands and feet ended in the wicked talons that the bird had shown in its diving sweeps at Antoinette, and two immense wings jutted from his back. Worst of all were the eyes, however. Ruzo’s normal two human eyes peered out at Caleb, but above those were the exact same eyes that had adorned Silv’s head. “So that is your flame, little man?” Ruzo said, and his voice had an odd quality to it, some kind of echo, like it was being spoken through two mouths. “I thought you Artificers claimed you could match am Tamer’s power. Looks like you’re just another worm.”
“Uh…shit,” Caleb said, looking down at Antoinette. “Do you know how to do that?”
This time there was no imagining it. Antoinette shook her head, and there was real fear in her eyes.
“Yeah, me either.” Caleb dropped to one knee and held out a hand. “Get on.”
Antoinette leaped onto Caleb’s arm and wrapped her legs around as Ruzo took to the air.
“So, Artificer,” Ruzo said, every word laced with mockery. “What will you do now?”
Fortunately, for the first time since he’d arrived here, Caleb knew exactly what to do.
Screaming in fear, Caleb turned and ran away from the four-eyed taloned bird-human hybrid that was rising into the sky. And as he did, the small part of his mind that couldn’t stop from being sarcastic even now couldn’t help but point out that it was totally unfair – none of the games allowed you to do that. Where’s the overly drawn out tutorial when you really need it?
Want to read more? Why not pick it up now?
Amazon US Link - UK | CA | AU | DE | MX | JP | IN | BR | FR | ES | IT | NL
And if you want to see more of my work, you can do so at /hydrael_writes

Megathread: William Taylor, envoy to Ukraine, testifies Trump tied Ukraine aid to politically motivated investigations

PSA: Why the BI is the better and more valuable event vehicle

SUBMISSION	DOMAIN
US' top diplomat Taylor was told Trump wanted aid withheld until Ukraine said it would investigate Biden	edition.cnn.com
Diplomat’s Testimony Drew “Direct Line” Between Military Funds and Biden Probe	motherjones.com
William Taylor testifies about deep-seated push for Ukraine quid pro quo	politico.com
Diplomat says he was told U.S. aid for Ukraine tied to request for probes: Washington Post	reuters.com
Read:Top US diplomat to Ukraine's opening statement for impeachment inquiry	cnn.com
Bill Taylor’s Testimony Paints a 'Damning' Picture of Trump's Ukraine Quid Pro Quo; "It was the most damning testimony that I've heard so far" says Wasserman Shultz	vice.com
US’ top Ukraine diplomat testifies he was told ‘everything’ depended on Ukraine announcing investigations	wgno.com
Diplomat says he was told that Ukraine military aid was linked to investigations into Bidens and 2016 election	cnbc.com
Read: Taylor’s Damning Testimony On Ukraine Pressure Campaign	talkingpointsmemo.com
Top Diplomat Confirms There Was Quid Pro Quo Demand In Trump's Ukraine Call: Reports	huffpost.com
Donald Trump 'lynching' comment on impeachment probe is condemned as US diplomat William Taylor testifies	abc.net.au
Opening statement of Ambassador William B. Taylor	washingtonpost.com
Top diplomat Bill Taylor gave 'disturbing,' 'explosive' testimony on Trump's Ukraine dealings, Democrats say — Democrats said a "direct line" between the president's demand for an investigation by the Ukrainians into his political rivals and U.S. military aid.	nbcnews.com
Diplomat says Ukraine aid was tied to political investigations	thehill.com
3 takeaways from Bill Taylor’s crucial opening statement	washingtonpost.com
U.S. envoy: Trump tied Ukraine aid to Biden, DNC investigations	axios.com
Ukraine ambassador says in 'damning' testimony that he was told Trump wanted quid pro quo deal, report says	independent.co.uk
Ukraine Envoy Testifies Trump Linked Military Aid to Investigations, Lawmaker Says	nytimes.com
Today’s Impeach-O-Meter: Gasp-Inducing Testimony Confirms Corrupt Quid Pro Quo for Billionth Time	slate.com
Democrats Say Ambassador William Taylor's Testimony On Ukraine Is 'Disturbing'	npr.org
Ambassador testifies he was told "everything" depended on Ukraine announcing investigations	edition.cnn.com
Trump Wanted Zelensky to Publicly Say He Was Investigating Biden	thedailybeast.com
‘Sighs and gasps’ from House Members Hearing Latest Testimony in Impeachment Inquiry	ijr.com
Volker urged Ukraine’s Zelensky to convince Trump he would investigate corruption - Weeks before Trump July 25 phone call, U.S. diplomat discussed investigations with Zelensky at a Toronto meeting	marketwatch.com
Volker pressed Zelensky to convince Trump he would launch investigations before call: Report	thehill.com
I was told Trump wanted quid pro quo deal, Ukraine ambassador reportedly testifies – live - US news	theguardian.com
Taylor: Sondland And Volker Separately Compared Trump’s Ukraine Aid Holdup To A Biz Deal	talkingpointsmemo.com
Top US diplomat in Ukraine tells Congress investigating Bidens and election interference tied to aid money	abcnews.go.com
Ambassador William Taylor Ties Ukraine Aid Holdup Directly To Trump	wuwm.com
The Top US Diplomat To Ukraine Was “Alarmed” The US Insisted Ukraine Help Trump With Investigations In Exchange For Aid Money	buzzfeednews.com
Legal Experts Sum Up U.S. Diplomat’s Testimony on Ukraine as ‘Devastating’ for Trump	lawandcrime.com
Testimony by Top Diplomat Bill Taylor on Trump and Ukraine Elicits 'Holy Sh*t' Responses From Members of Congress	commondreams.org
Bill Taylor may be blowing the Trump-Ukraine scandal wide open	washingtonpost.com
6 Key Revelations of Taylor’s Opening Statement to Impeachment Investigators	nytimes.com
The 5 Bombshells From Bill Taylor's Testimony on Trump and Ukraine	vice.com
White House Attacks ‘Radical Unelected Bureaucrats’ After Explosive Taylor Testimony	talkingpointsmemo.com
William Taylor's testimony should be game over for Trump	theweek.com
Diplomat Bill Taylor testifies Trump used Ukraine aid, White House meeting as leverage for probes	foxnews.com
Highlights: Top U.S. Diplomat In Ukraine Delivers Explosive Statement To Congress	npr.org
Top U.S. diplomat in Ukraine offers damning testimony	yahoo.com
Amb. Bill Taylor's 'Devastating' Opening Statement Draws 'Direct Line' To Trump - Deadline - MSNBC	youtube.com
Bill Taylor opening statement: Read the full text of the top U.S. diplomat's statement to Congress - Top diplomat tells lawmakers Ukraine aid was directly tied to investigations	cbsnews.com
Diplomat worried Trump would stiff Ukraine after leveraging favor	msnbc.com
Ukraine ambassador William Taylor’s testimony backs Senate Republicans into a corner	washingtonexaminer.com
‘The directive had come from the president’; Longtime diplomat details quid pro quo with Ukraine	bostonglobe.com
5 explosive lines from Bill Taylor's statement	edition.cnn.com
Every major TV network except Fox News thinks William Taylor's testimony was just awful for Trump	theweek.com
US diplomat: Trump tied Ukraine aid to demands for probes	aljazeera.com
Trump launches lackluster attack against Bill Taylor after testimony	theguardian.com
Trump and Rudy just got nailed: Bill Taylor unveils the whole sleazy Ukraine scheme. Acting Ukraine ambassador's Capitol Hill testimony blows the lid off Trump's conspiracy — and hints at much more	salon.com
Trump impeachment inquiry catch-up: where we are right now. The president’s denial of dirty dealings in Ukraine took a serious hit on Tuesday with Bill Taylor’s closed-door testimony.	theguardian.com
Bill Taylor’s testimony removes any last plausible line of defense for Trump	theguardian.com
Taylor’s Testimony Goes Way Beyond Quid Pro Quo	slate.com
When We Investigated Benghazi, We Longed for Evidence This Clear: If Mike Pompeo and Jim Jordan had received the kind of bombshell testimony we heard from William Taylor, they would have moved to impeach.	theatlantic.com
Taylor Testifies Trump Tied Ukraine Aid to Investigation of Hunter Biden	democracynow.org
Key GOP senator: The "picture coming out" of diplomat's testimony is "not a good one"	cnn.com
Watch: GOP Rep. Yells At CNN Reporter When Asked About Bill Taylor’s Testimony	talkingpointsmemo.com
Top Senate Republican Calls Impression Of Taylor Testimony ‘Not Good’	talkingpointsmemo.com
Nolte: Adam Schiff Desperate to Hide William Taylor Testimony that Would Kill Ukraine Hoax	breitbart.com
Team Trump Is Withholding Bill Taylor's Detailed Ukraine Notes From Congress	vice.com
Trump impeachment odds hit record high of 75% on popular betting website after diplomat's 'damning' testimony	businessinsider.com
“The Walls Are Closing In”: Bill Taylor's Testimony Puts Trump's Impeachment in Overdrive	vanityfair.com
Bill Taylor's Ukraine testimony left "jaws dropped," says Democratic congressman: "This wasn't just a smoking gun, it was a smoking cannon"	newsweek.com
Republican lawmaker 'destroyed' Bill Taylor's testimony says McCarthy	foxnews.com
Sondland seeks to align himself with Taylor after bombshell testimony	politico.com
No. 2 GOP senator: 'Picture coming out of' diplomat's testimony 'not a good one'	thehill.com
Team Trump Is Withholding Bill Taylor's Detailed Ukraine Notes From Congress	vice.com
Trump calls Pompeo-appointed Ukraine ambassador Bill Taylor a "Never Trumper"	axios.com

A complete analysis of the Bereznyak-Isayev BI-1

Why it is a very unique vehicle that was overlooked, but will soon be rare and highly valued
The BI is an interesting plane, and due to its in-game characteristics, the setup of the event, and the overall attitude of players, I have realized that it is very likely that this will be an extremely expensive plane soon, and that there is a way to get it discounted right now, but it is only viable until the 12th of October. This post is quite long, but I hope you find it as interesting as I did, and if at all possible, helpful as well.

READ ME: There are four sections to this analysis, each which details why this plane is likely to be sought after; read only the part/s which interest you most, as it is quite long (even by TEC standards). View conclusion for TL;DR.

The most unique gameplay and flight characteristics in War Thunder

From tier I-V there are two basic strategies. Having more energy than the opponent by climbing or staying at high speeds, and turnfighting. Most planes specialize in a certain area while lacking in another another, such as the Fw 190 Ds or P-47s which have great guns, engine power, and energy retention, but sacrifices turnfighting capability and speed. On the other hand we have the A6M1 "Zero" or Spitfire, which can climb well and turn very well, but sacrifice speed, energy retention, and have bad guns. The BI has the capability to do everything that these planes do but better, except it has horrible guns.
Apart from this plane, there are almost none which have good everything, and while the BI has some detriments, it out-preforms every single plane at its tier in every non-weaponry department, especially considering it is at 6.7. The fact that its the only useable rocket plane in the game (RIP Me 163) and it faces propeller planes and early jets means that it has gameplay that is not replicated with any other plane in the game.
In terms of performance, its only detriments come from the fact that it preforms unlike any other plane in the game. You see pilots fly at 100% throttle and dive at 700km/h in this thing then crash because they cant pull up. Compare this to a player who just unlocked their first jet, and starts climbing at 250km/h then tries to dogfight propeller planes. Until then their doctrine was good for propeller planes, but they must learn to adapt to the completely new fighting style. The same goes for the BI. At low speeds it can outturn a Spitfire and Ho 229, especially with flaps. At mid speeds (just under 600km/h) it can pull a sustained 14g, which is nearly impossible save for the Ho 229 and a some Mach capable jets.
At high speeds (600+) The BI is a flying brick, but consider two things. First; it can sustain 750km/h with only 35% throttle, second, it can sustain 500km/h in a climb at 45% throttle and reach 5000m after 2.5 minutes with 60 seconds of fuel left. Compare this to the British 7,000 GE Premium, the Spitfire FR Mk XIVc, which according to the WT climb chart, takes 4 minutes and 45 seconds to reach the same altitude at 100% throttle, so the BI already out climbs it by a considerable margin at 35% throttle, while at 100% it can reach that altitude in 1 minute and 10 seconds, over four times faster. ~~Practically~~ Nothing around these BRs can outclimb this plane, or outrun it either.
It is notable that at low altitudes you get "REDUCE SPEED" warnings around 730 km/h, but it your plane will not rip. Instead, you can go up to 900km/h at which you simply stops accelerating (its your top speed). You dont rip anything at this speed, but your controls are quite sluggish.
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At over 600km/h other planes have a maneuverability advantage, but this plane can pull up and cut throttle to stay above them, and now as the enemy has been maneuvering, they are slow, and you can swoop down on them or turn in with them, as at slow speeds you excel. If they try to run away, at 35% throttle you can easily outrun them, so if they turn you catch them, and if they run, you catch them. The enemies best bet is trying to make you overshoot, as the BI's incredible energy retention can be a curse at times, as even at 0% throttle you can convert 800km/h into 2500m of altitude, but it also means slowing down to stay on an evasive enemies tail is hard. You can always pull up and out though, and dive back on them as mentioned before.
With such a powerful engine, it is limited with a 1 minute and 57 second fuel load. This is deceiving, as I have tested the longevity of the fuel at different throttle settings, and it is as many have noted, non linear. For the exact data on how long fuel lasts, check out this post. If the fuel consumption and throttle percentage were directly correlated, you would expect that for 60 seconds of fuel; 100% throttle would last 60 seconds, 10% would last 600 seconds, and 1% would last 6000 seconds, while in reality as it is non-linear, 100% lasts 60 seconds, 10% lasts 6,600 seconds (1h 50m), and 1% lasts for 660,000 seconds (183 hours). At 35% throttle you have about 8 mins of fuel, a respectable amount, and as mentioned above, you can sustain 750km/h. This engine is even more powerful than the other rocket plane, the 163, but the 163 is at 8.0-8.7 where it faces MiGs and Sabres, while this plane is at 6.7 where it faces P-51s and Me 262s, and it can completely dominate them.
The % of throttle used exponentially increases the fuel used. But this is deceiving, the airframe of this plane creates almost no drag, so cutting throttle doesn't really limit top speed, only makes it take longer accelerate to such speeds. At most throttles the BI can sustain a very high top speed, as it only needs a bit of thrust to counteract what air resistance it does experience, so it can stay at high speeds. You almost never want to use throttles above 50%. The situations in which high throttles can be useful is in a stallfight when you need more thrust to hang in the air a bit longer, if you are at low speeds and need to get the energy advantage quickly, be it getting to a top speed then throttling down, or climbing up to escape low enemies. When hunting bombers do not use full throttle, as at high altitudes your rip speed and controllability decreases significantly, and you will never reach high enough altitudes if you waste your fuel in a 100% throttle and 60 degree climb, you wont have fuel left over, but at 35% you climb slower, but still much faster than anything else, and by the time bombers start reaching your bases, you can easily be at 6000-7000 meters with a good amount of fuel left.
As fuel efficiency is quite important, it would be very useful if someone who is good with data and aeronautical concepts could find the most efficient throttle + angle of climb combination for this aircraft. From what I have seen, 35% throttle at 400km/h is quite efficient and can get you to altitude fast.
Now about its guns. In protection analysis you can compare the damage of AP-I and FI-T, but not HE, and although there is info about the 20mm ShVAK in-game and on the wiki page, no where could I find the muzzle velocities of each round, and much info is from years ago, so finding accurate reliable information was hard. I, along with many players would be grateful if u/gszabi99 could extract the data for the damage and velocity of different types rounds, or if Gaijin would allow us to do protection analysis for every round, as until now the consensus on best belts are based on speculation.
From what I can tell, the HE has a bad reputation. On protection analysis, AP-I does good damage when hitting a critical component, but doesn't do well on wings or the main fuselage. I would estimate that without a pilot snipe or fire, it would take 3-4 shells to the same spot of the wing to snap it, four shells to the tail to break the controls, but only 1-2 shells to destroy an engine. FI-T appears to explode on impact, but does little damage. It would probably take 3-4 shells to the same spot to snap a wing, five to the tail to kill the controls, but four for an engine. Overall, the AP-I seems better, as it appears to have a higher muzzle velocity, is likely to start fires (which can kill much more reliably then the guns damage itself), and pens more, so is more likely to reach the pilot. FI-T can also be useful, but seems to spark more often, and its lack of pen make it useless when hunting bigger planes. For dogfighting it can be better, as snapshots during turning tend to hit flat wings, and while AP-I passes right through, FI-T damages the whole wing. Its lack of pen doesn't matter, as planes that dogfight you are small and lightly armored, and the spread of damage can do more on a hit. If your style is being on an enemies tail and fighting armored and big enemies, AP-I is best for fires, pilot snipes, and killing engines. If you prefer turnfighting, snapshots, and fighting light enemies, FI-T might be best for you.
On the topic of guns, from what I am seeing, the Russian air tree is preforming much worse in the current meta then its contemporaries. From tier I to VI its planes are generally outclassed, with few notable exceptions such as the MiG-17AS and the IL-2s. At low-mid tiers their engine performance and guns are mediocre, and in upper tiers the Phantom is dominant. Gaijin will surely see that people are not grinding out the Russian tree nearly as much as other nations with better planes. I cant predict what they will change to attempt to balance this, or even if they will do anything about it at all, but it is possible that, as we have seen in the past, if a certain thing is underperforming, it will have its characteristics improved, and if it is over preforming, vice versa. I think we can all agree that ShVAKS are underperforming, but the question is whether Gaijin will do anything about it.
It is easily a 7.7 worthy in terms of performance, but its bad guns mean it is 6.7 and faces props and early jets, both of which can do nothing against it if the pilot is smart and does not take unnecessary risks. It reminds me of the He 100 when it was at 1.7. A plane that preforms incredibly well, but as it had guns worse those that of biplanes, it was placed at a br at which it faced biplanes, and nothing could touch it. Good players were in a position where they could not be killed if they played it right, and could shred the enemy team.
Overall it could be argued that it is the best plane at its BR, but it depends on how much you like guns. If you are experienced in nations with bad guns such as Brittan, Russia, Japan, and France, you may like this plane. If you are more inclined to nations with powerful guns, having to adjust to shitty guns would probably not be fun.
Below is a list of pros and cons it has compared to other planes it faces.
Pros:

Best MER (Maneuvering Energy Retention)
Best low speed maneuverability
Great mid speed maneuverability (Almost as much as 229)
Best climb rate
High top speed in level flight (900km/h)
Good top speed in a dive (Mach 0.81)
Best acceleration
Best poweweight ratio (Even good compared to tier VIs)
Guns have low rate of fire which helps conserve ammo
Very unique
Good repair cost
Interesting in Sim
Could be acquired for free/cheap

Cons:

Expensive now that the event is over (85 Gjn at the moment of posting)
Guns are bad
45 RPG
Controls lock up at 600km/h
Fuel load requires throttle control
Plane is less controllable and more susceptible to rips at high altitudes and in dives

As a summary of its characteristics; it is better then everything it faces, but its lackluster guns make it rare to be able to use its performance advantages to get more than two kills per sortie.

The setup of the "Strategist" event will make it very rare

There are a few things I have seen about the event itself that are extremely likely to make the BI very rare. First; although we are in quarantine, people are very busy with work and school, and it took around four hours a day for 10 days to get the Merk or the BI. It was also during the work week, so most people could only grind those four hours in addition to the work they already had, and one weekend. If people had a day or two off, they may have been able to grind it then, but Gaijin in their infinite wisdom capped the rewards at 40 per day, so players could only earn 1/6th of the materials needed (3 offensive docs at 80 intel per doc means 40 intel x 6 days). Thus to get it for free you had to participate in an intense grind for the max reward for at least 6 days, and many people didn't have the time. This was bound to make the reward rare, as who in their right mind would spend hours every day on intense grind for a videogame? (Needless to say I am not in my right mind)
The second characteristic which makes the BI rarer is the fact that the Merk comes before the BI, and in addition, the Merk can be exchanged for the BI, but the BI cant be exchanged for the Merk. Go to the Strategist map and you will see what I mean; three docs for a Merk coupon, and the Merk coupon can be exchanged for a BI coupon. If you had the choice between getting a BI or a Merk for free right now, the logical decision would be to get the Merk, because you know if you get the BI, you are stuck with the BI, but if you get the Merk, you have a chance to exchange it if in the end you decide that you would prefer the BI. This means more players will keep the Merk, as well as put the Merk up for sale rather than the BI, because its logical that if you can exchange it for a BI, it would be more valuable because it gives you the chance to get both instead of just being worth itself. It was also believed and repeated by Youtubers covering the event that the Merk would be the better vehicle to sell to make money. Considering the pervious two points, it is odd to consider that in practice the BI coupon is selling for 5 gjn more than the Merk. We will get into the reasons why this happened in the next section, but it has to do with the fact that the Merk appears to be the better reward (as we reasoned logically before), and thus people kept it and neglected the BI, making the BI rarer in the end.
As the Merk was exchangeable for the BI, most people kept the Merk. As of right now there are 9.3 times more Merks than BIs on the market. The last characteristic of the event that will make the BI much more rare is the fact that the Merk will no longer be exchangeable for the BI on the 12th. As we have seen, there are disproportionately more Merks than BIs, and when the possibility to exchange the one to the other stops, there will still be many times more Merks than BIs, making the BI much rarer.

How players see the BI + how they act in the market

One of the most interesting and hard to measure variables about things like these event vehicles are peoples opinions towards them. Fortunately for me, there are myriads of Reddit and fourm posts from the average player about their feelings on the event, as well as many Youtube posts about the event which most WT players watch, and my own experience in the game, where I played consistently with and against teams full of Merkvas, while in Air battles there were only 2-3 BIs per game, and I was able to talk with players of each to get a general impression of what they think of them.
The first thing to consider is the first impression everyone had when the event was announced. The first thing almost everyone saw was that there is a rocketplane with two shitvaks, only 45 RPG, and less than 2 mins of fuel, and almost every comment about it was that it would be really bad. From what we knew, all signs said it would be true! We had no idea that its flight characteristics would turn out to be practically the best at its tier, it would have more engine power than the 163, and the fuel would be manageable with throttle control. On the other hand, we had the Merkava 3D. This was seen as easily the better vehicle, from first sight is is a very good looking tank, while the BI looked like dildo with wings. On top of that, the Merk boasted the best round in the game, good general performance, part of a Israeli collection, has a good supporting lineup and a great repair cost. Based on this primary info, the BI seems quite bad, just a meme plane, while the Merk seems like a very good vehicle.
Now lets consider the Youtubers. They are good players who had early access to the vehicles, and have quite an influential voice. What they say, especially if many of them agree, would be believed by the majority of their audience, and thus those interested in grinding the vehicles (Especially if it reinforces their first impression). In all the videos of early gameplay and ideas for how to grind the event, the advice that the Merk was the better vehicle, and that to make money it would be best to sell the Merk, was almost universal. Everyone who made a video said that the BI itself was ok, but its guns were extremely frustrating to the point of being almost useless, while the Merk was portrayed as quite good. Now there is a thing to consider about WT Youtubers. As it is usually one of their prime sources of income/favorite hobbies, they play WT a lot, more than the average player and their viewers. As they play so much, they get really good, and for tanks; "No armor is best armor" (Phlydaily). The gun is the thing that matters the most to really good players, and armor is there for if a mistake is made and you are in a position where the enemy can shoot you (Spookston and others). As Youtubers tend to be above average players, they note it has the best gun (round) in the game, and ok survivability. As they are very experienced, they can position themselves so as to not get killed, and with the best round, do really well. But as mentioned before, armor is for if mistakes are made, and boy does the average player make mistakes.
Even in my B1 ter and Tiger H1 (famously OP tanks), I can get penned a lot because I make mistakes. Nearly everyone agrees that the Tiger H1 is OP at its br, almost unpenable if played right, but if a flanking enemy shoots you, you get sniped, or there is more than one enemy to angle against, you are easily penned. It takes a good player to position correctly, to know when and how much to angle, to not ever expose a flat plate. I tend so hear people say that when they play allies they can never pen Tigers, but when they play Tigers they always get penned. The point I am trying to make is that the average player is average, and not having armor to protect them when they fuck up means they die. Look at the OP R3, and yet most R3 players rush a cap and come in guns blazing and get killed instantly. It is a good vehicle, but the lack of armor makes the average player not do great in it. The R3 is similar to the Merk in the fact that they are really good vehicles with bad armor, and while they are great for experienced players who know every spot in the map and how to correctly position by heart, most will just push and be disappointed when they get killed by a sniper every time. Long story short, the Youtubers said that the Merk was a really good vehicle because of its gun, but for most players its just OK if not underwhelming, and the the state of allied 10.3 confirms it. When considering the BI, Youtubers opinions started to change once they had the BI for longer. It started out as being not recommended at all, but slowly they began to learn how to fly it and that it is actually quite fun. This change is the same learning curve we all have experienced with jets. It was a completely new and unique playstyle, and even the really good players had bad first experiences because they didnt know how to fly it properly and use all its incredible performance advantages. Thus, slowly the BI has been enjoyed by those who play it more and more, and consequently, the opinions of the Youtubers and players about it have improved.

Initial opinions about the BI/in favor of the Merk:
A BI... to fly - War Thunder Napalmratte
🔴First Look - Bereznyak-Isayev BI-1 - War Thunder LiveStream🔴 WhooptieDo
The Issue with War Thunder's events Ash
War Thunder's Event Problem Spookston
War Thunder - Merkava Mk.3D "The Hard Hitting Prize!" Bo Time Gaming
Holding The Line - Merkava Mk.3D War Thunder DEFYN
Merkava Mk.3D - IT IS HERE - Crafting Event "Strategist" Vehicle... RagingRaptor
Players who I had met in-game who had just unlocked the BI crashed or ran out of fuel and ammo a lot, and said that it was ok but its guns were trash and its flight characteristics were very weird.

Recent positive opinions on the BI:
Day 3 Thoughts - Wargame "Strategist" - War Thunder TheEuropeanCanadian
RUSSIAN SPACE INTERCEPTOR... PhlyDaily
2 Minute Hero The Iron Arminian
The Russian Ohka | War Thunder BI ConeOfArc
Players wo have played the BI for longer now, such as those who have spaded it, appear to get 1-2 kills on average per sortie, then btb to rearm and come back to the combat. Overall they usually get 1-3 kills per game and rarely die. They say that it is very fun once you get the hang of it, and that you can easily outmaneuver the enemy, stay alive, and get shots on target, but the worst part is the 45rpg and bad damage. Even with every shot on target after getting an enemy slow, only 45 chances to shoot limits how much the planes superb performance can be used before a btb.

Now lets consider value. As the BI was first considered to be trash, the initial expectations of the market were quite low:
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While in contrast the Merk had many buy orders, and for higher prices. This makes sense as people thought that it was much better. As people began finishing the event, they would keep whichever they wanted more, usually the Merk judging by the lack of entire teams of BIs at 6.7. If they wished to sell, they would but up the Merk, as everyone said it was more valuable and would sell better. Thus the Merk coupons came onto the market by the hundreds, while even now there are less than a hundred BI coupons for sale. Now armed with the knowledge of supply of each vehicle, lets look at the current prices of each. The lowest 32 sale orders for the Merk are 80 gjn, while there is a single BI going for 85gjn, then more priced higher. This doesnt make sense, why is the coupon for the supposed better vehicle (which can also be exchanged for the more expensive one) cheaper than the supposed worse one? You could just buy the Merk for cheaper and exchange it for a BI through the Strategist map, why is the price so high? The answer is a fundamental principal of supply and demand, the fact that the fewer of something there is, and by extension the rarer something is, the more valuable it is. As of right now, the advice has been to not sell the BI, but to sell the Merkava, which means everyone intending to sell, either listed a Merk coupon on the market, or is saving it to sell when the price goes up, and much fewer have done similarly with the BI. The only thing keeping them more or less balanced is the fact that you can exchange a Merk for a BI, so their differences in price are limited. But soon the final stage of the event will be over, and this conversion will be no longer possible, leaving a ton of players with Merk coupons on the market, and an extremely limited number of BI coupons. This precipitates a huge inflation in the cost of the BI, because as of now only around 90 new BIs will ever be created, while there are hundreds of Merks that can be redeemed.
As it is such a unique vehicle, and the opinion of those who play it is generally improving, it will likely be highly regarded, and as such drive up its price quite a bit on top of the fact that it is going to be quite rare already. Something quite similar happened with the AU-1 from the last event, but now there much less BIs on the market than AU-1s after 6 months, and the AU-1 is not nearly as unique as the BI!

Two chances to buy it for cheap

Right now the BI is going for 85 Gajouble Roubles, but if you are interested there are two ways to pick it up for less. Unfortunately, as it was an event vehicle, there is no way to get it for free anymore, and the limited supply means that the price will only go up as it gets rarer.
The first method is one I thought up and made a post about earlier which you may have seen. It involves buying the Merkava, which due to saturation is going for 5 gjn less than the BI, then going to the Strategist crafting map and converting your Merkava into a BI. Its easy and saves you 5 bucks, but if you want to do this you better hurry, as the event ends in a few hours and you wont be able to exchange it for a BI any longer.
The second method is less sure, but will probably work. As the anniversary sale approaches, sellers in the market, including the sellers of the BI, will want money to spend during the sale, and thus will sell their vehicles for lower prices instead of holding out at a higher price. If the sale is really good this year, then the price will lower more because they will really want the money to buy the packs on sale. The drawbacks are that from now to the sale the price could rise substantially and even with the lowered price cost more then you can get it for now, and if the sale is bad, then the price of the BI wont lower.

Conclusion (TL;DR)
After looking at all aspects of the event, the behavior of the players, and the vehicle itself, I have found that it is a very fun and good vehicle if used right, and that it is more unique than any other vehicle on the market except the E 100 and the P-59, all of which offer a completely unique experience that can be replicated by practically no other vehicle in game. The Merk is has a good gun and looks good, but is not that unique, while the BI is very fun.
In terms of value, the BI is already much rarer than the Merk, and its cost on the market will soon increase to surpass the Merk by far. If you are interested in it, I would recommend acquiring it soon before it gets too expensive.
If you have a still have a coupon and are deciding which vehicle to redeem; first consider your current experience with top tier American tanks. If you enjoy that type of combat, would like an addition to your top tier lineup, or want to use this tank to grind tier VII, the Merk offers what you want. If you dont play high tier ground RB and dont have a lineup at that BR, want a vehicle that offers significant advantages over the enemy, and want to have fun and not stock grind, than the Merk may not be for you. If you want a vehicle that offers an experience unlike any other in the game and you find outmaneuvering your opponents fun, the BI may be for you. You dont need a lineup, you dont need to suffer a bad stock grind and horrible team composition, and you dont even need to have any Russian planes, you can just get it and start flying.

Afterword

Truly the best reward is the Lübeck F224. A decent amount of grinding to get a quite good vehicle, although because Gaijin didn't design Naval battles to be fun no one plays them. If they added some more good sea premiums I am sure they would revamp naval because they would have an incentive to do so. It could be fun as well if low tier sea grind wasn't so terrible.
The worst reward is easily the half track. At such a low BR, battles are rarely fun. The vehicle itself may be iconic, but if it was the 75mm variant at a higher BR I would be much more inclined to get it.
If I were to design the event there are a few things I would change. I would still want it to be necessary to grind so people would play and get these rewards on top of normal tree grind, a win-win, but not to much to burn out the participants. Ideally, there would be two tiers of reward instead of three, the first with the 75mm variant of the half track or the Lübeck. This way there are two good vehicles to choose from for a lesser grind, and people are happier for it. It may also entice more players to get into naval. The second tier reward would be the BI or the Merk, as these are good vehicles and the grind is just right. In addition only tier III and up would be allowed, no more sealclubbing innocent new players with the B1 ter or F4U 1A. In addition to these rewards I would make gameplay more important in getting the rewards. When I was grinding, I could drop a single bomb from my 264 and be AFK the whole match and get enough activity for the reward, but in a fighter I needed more than one kill to do that, and you don't have the option to climb into space as you need to fight for activity. There was a pitiful reward for actual performance, the assault groups, and even then you only got it if you got first place. I would make the event last slightly longer as well, and perhaps add another reward to each tier to make there be good variety and represent minor nations. Thus players would be satisfied to get one or two of their preferred vehicles, while those set on hardcore grind could get all three tier one rewards and one tier two, or two tier two rewards and one tier one reward max.
I procrastinate writing my essays for school by writing an essay for WT, ironic.
Some information I referenced may have changed slightly between me writing it and you reading it, for example, it may be after 12:00 GMT on the 12th, so exchange of coupons will no longer be available, and the market data may have shifted a bit.
As of the exact moment of posting the event will end in 6h 32m. It is 11:27, I have school tomorrow, and I am tired so I will check responses in the morning.
If you have read my whole paper, good job! (If you just scrolled here, see the TL;DR in the previous section) I wrote it because I want to help any players who are interested as well as players who have the BI and are learning how to fly it, and because what I saw and learned seemed very interesting to me, and I wanted to share it with others who may be as interested about this event. If I am wrong in a certain area, or some info is not up to date, please let me know.

[Thank You] TO THIS AMAZING SUB! You’ve honestly taken my breath away and I don’t know how to handle this much positivity 🧡

Idol-Rapper Analysis #2 - 4th Gen Boy Groups pt2 (Stray Kids-3Racha)

You know who it is, comin round again

My original post outlining a lot of Hiphop terminology/concepts/analysis can be found here
My post where you can submit other groups you want to see analyzed or performances/songs you think i should see can be found here

Previous Breakdown: Ateez/Oneus/ACE

Ranking system:
I will give a tier ranking using the S / A / B / C / D / F tier system.
Here is a full breakdown of what i consider each tier to represent generally. If you care about how I rank these folks I highly recommend checking it out
I give tiers based on the following aspects technical abilities like speed/breath control/enunciation/dynamics/and complexity of flow, cohesion with the group, creativity/originality, emotional delivery and versatility.
Note: I consider an AVERAGE idol rapper to be around a D or C tier. If you think my ranking is harsh that's what i'm comparing against.

Some Disclaimers:
This post is fxckin long
This post will cover both technical aspects of rapping and some more critical analyses including my own personal opinion. I will try and justify my opinion as best possible but in the end, the opinion belongs to me and only me, if you enjoy a rapper I don't, or if you don't enjoy a rapper I do, that is all ok! Additionally if you are uncomfortable seeing your faves criticized this might not be the post for you! All of our faves have flaws and room for growth and pointing them out does not diminish their talents or hard work.
If you disagree with my analysis I'd love to hear your thoughts! If i get something incorrect please feel free to correct me in the comments! I am open to criticism and correction!
!!!!!! I will do my best to point out both an idols strengths and weaknesses, but I will not water down my opinion to do so. !!!!!!
My preparation for this post was listening to ALL the tracks the group had available on streaming, if the rappers have their own subunit or solo work i looked at that too. I didn't watch all of their live performances although I usually will watch it for tracks I'm curious about.
I'm not an expert, My word is not gospel. My opinions don't hold some special authority. The only qualifications i have are a lot of time spent researching and a lot of listening to better smarter people talk about rap.
Also please note I have changed the format of these posts slightly, so rankings are now listed at the end of each rappers analysis rather than the beginning. This is in order to, i hope, take some of the focus away from the exact letter grade and onto the thing I actually spent the most time on and what I think is most important.

(Lmfao this was originally supposed to be a part of the first post but it became SO long and I didn't wanna skimp on details. A testament to the amount of work 3racha has already put out and the overall quality of it that I couldn't edit down my thoughts at all. Stays win this round because I ended up with a LOT to say.

Stray Kids: Bang Chan + Han + Changbin

Notes about SKZ as a whole:
Stray Kids is one of the 4th gen groups that has actually based itself around its rapline. 3racha members have been involved with both the lyrics, production, and arrangement on the majority of group tracks including title tracks (the first two title tracks had first line producer credits to other artists but since then they have taken the lead) since debut. On 3racha's predebut tracks they have did all the writing and production besides tracks that used other artist's beats (note: this is fine to do on free mixtapes, it is common practice in hiphop as long as you aren't profiting) Although I can't say for sure that 100% of the lines they individually rap were written by the person rapping because i wasn't there to watch the process, that is the assumption I will go in with, i assume they probably collaborate to some degree or workshop lyrics with one another, but I also get the sense that they take a lot of pride in writing for themselves.
At just over 2 years old they are already nearing 100 songs (over 100 if you count all the SKZ2020 rerecords), which is extremely impressive especially when considering that 3racha is lead on writing and production on almost all of those songs. Before debut they released ~40 tracks across a Mixtape and 2 EPs, some of those tracks would end up getting reworked as full group tracks but many remain soundcloud-only releases.
Lyrically the majority of 3racha and early SKZ songs lean on a "we are young and passionate/we are overwhelmed by self doubt in our passions" type of lyrics often focused around trainee life and anticipation of debut. As a very young group this still makes sense although it can become a bit one-note if you're trying to read the lyrics but they have expanded their lens somewhat in more recent albums.
Stylistically SKZ's group songs tend to lean heavily into EDM but unlike a lot of other groups they pull from MANY subgenres of EDM for inspiration (as opposed to sticking to House/Techno/Trap) they have used EDM genres from Psytrance to Drum and Bass. Their b-sides take on some of these styles but also do more casual electronic hiphop tracks and even a few more melodic ballad songs.
The rappers are usually central to their tracks however as time has gone on Han especially has made a switch to being about half and half vocalist and rapper, making room for Hyunjin+Felix to be the larger rap presence on their tracks. This means his verses are now usually shorter or sometimes nonexistent, to make room for the other two. Changbin's lines have also been shortened overall and Chan has essentially switched into a fulltime lead vocalist.
In 3racha they went pretty wide for influences and styles. Of particular note is a song like Eunseoki which takes on a 3rd person narration which idol rappers don't usually tackle but which i was very excited to see and usually a pretty important step for lyricists (being able to tell other peoples stories not just your own). Their emotional range (or at least the range they attempted) from love songs, hype songs, emo songs, and braggadocios songs is pretty diverse.
There's no doubt some extremely impressive stuff in their predebut work, I'll point out Peer Pressure, Don Qixote, ID:a, and 작은 Dragon Three 마리, as some examples of songs where everything lined up and everyone sounded excellent, I think the production really elevates both songs and it's clear they are all much better able to perform if they have a juicy beat to get into (note: that ID:a is a sample of a Logic's Fade Away)
One full group track i feel obligated to mention here is N/S which absolutely shocked me when I first heard it, I'd truly never imagined I'd be hearing a Big Shaq type flow over a near-remake of the Mask Off beat. Honestly, I laughed.
There are a few issues that consistently bug 3racha and SKZ tracks some of which I will tackle in the individual breakdowns but one of which I should mention here. Namely that the transitions between rhythmic and melodic sections of songs (from rapping into a sung hook or from a rap verse into the prechorus for instance) are often sloppy or jarring. Luckily this issue doesn't have as much of an effect on the rap sections themselves but it is something I notice overall and it does affect a lot of the tracks I'm going to mention here.

Bang Chan/CB97:

On full group songs Bang Chan rarely a strong rap presence. It is clear that his focus is a lot more on the production aspect and he often lends himself to the vocal delivery of group songs rather than the rap side preferring to let members like Hyunjin and Felix take over in those places. On 3racha tracks he is also usually the one delivering the fewest bars, but he sings a lot of the hooks. Overall Bang Chan clearly leans more into the production and lyrical side rather than the rapping itself.
When he does rap he is almost always melodic in his delivery, sometimes this follows a clear tune but other times he's not really following a clear melody line all the time but he jumps pitches a lot. Bang Chan has a lot looser adherence to beat than the other 3racha members, his bars tend to be a lot slower tempo and plays around on shortening and lengthening vowels a lot more. He reminds me of a lot of American rappers in the cloud+trap genres, like internet rap.
Although i am not familiar with SKZ's process of production if i had to guess it seems as though Chan is heading up a lot of the songs, I say this mainly because production of the bulk of 3racha tracks was credited to him and I imagine that travelled over to group songs as well.
Strengths:

Chan's focus on melodic delivery has meant that he's really developed in interesting sound in that area.
- Awkward Silence is a more basic version of this but it works well! Simple but sweet.
- This melodic delivery is especially at home on an east coast style beat such as in Don Qixote When there's jazzy or melodic elements front and center in the beat Chan plays really really well off of them.
- On Shhh and Cloud 9 Chan shows off what i mean by his cloud sensibilities. The melodic movement in this verse is really compelling and it's something i'd love to see more of and the much looser beat adherence only adds to the effect.
- When he goes intentionally dissonant from the track like here on Go Live it's killer, a REALLY interesting sound and it brings immediate focus and interest. Just generally i like idol rappers more the weirder they get, but with Chan especially i want MORE weirdness all the time.
- Sometimes that melody line he chooses just WORKS especially on chiller beats, Subway Pt II has a lovely Chan verse especially when he switches to a sing song delivery
He feels totally at home on a trap beat like the original Double Knot. His style fits in damn near perfect.
Chan probably has the most emotive voice of the three and he's worked to be able to deliver differences across different emotional beats.
Probably his greatest strength is just the way he contrasts the other rappers in his group. I actually think this is a pretty overlooked quality of both vocalists and rappers, but sometimes it's not as important whether you're objectively great, but rather that you provide and interesting and intriguing counterpoint for the other members. In this way Chan's melody-driven style is a great addition to the group.

Weaknesses:

Reliance on very basic flows for the majority of his verses for instance in Alchemistry, nothing stand out or interesting going on flow-wise and the verse ends on "forever" which has no paired rhyme to it.
The man is an English speaker and writes lines in English so I can actually critique that lmao...
- Some truly just baffling lines.... what does this mean ??? Why would that hurt my feelings??? Why are orcas walking??? What is happening
- Maze of Memories evokes even more questions. Although I like what he's going for with dense multisyllabic the lyrics simply don't hold up on closer inspection. What is an open fair? What do Citadels have to do with this and why do you want to tell it to dream? More importantly was "dream" really the only rhyme for "dream" that we could come up with?
- just some exceptionally corny bars, Start Line's Lyrics are full of them. And I honestly love how he starts it like pretending he's giving a graduation speech that's clever but.... ok first of all \a problem throughout is having hanging rhymes, basically words that should have a rhyming pair but just don't, "heart" "opinion" "myself" "instinct" "curious" are all left awkwardly without pairs. He also does the linguistic gymnastics to make feline and saiyan rhyme (barely) overall it's just a really oddly structured verse. This verse also happens to be really flat in terms of flow It definitely relies on the audience actively caring about Bang Chan as a person and just loving the story he's telling, but you should be able to tell a good story and deliver it well at the same time, that is LITERALLY the job of a rapper. I'm not a purist in the sense that I think every ending word needs a clear and precise rhyme, i think choppier styles can be effective, but i wouldn't call this choppy i'd call it sloppy (which, coincidentally sounds like a bar Chan himself would write)
His hooks are very very juvenile in a lot of 3racha's early work and even in some recent releases (hooks are incredibly important to rap songs just as much as beats are so I don't feel out of place bringing them up). He is clearly getting better but at the time they were melodically and delivery-wise very bland and sometimes unpleasant enough that I don't wanna hear the song again. For instance I personally really love the "blessings wait for you" hook from For You on paper, but his problem is that the first time it is in a range that is really uncomfortable for him and sounds rather unpleasant, the second time which he sings in falsetto is much better. Hooks, especially rap song hooks, need to be TIGHT and this is something i think he still struggles with.
More of a complaint than a weakness and I know 42 is a track people really admire for it's openness (as do I) but>! "suicide" shouldn't be an adlib you throw into a song like that. It's just not right my guy!<

So in summation... i have some pretty major issues with Chan's work thus far and, since he's moved his focus towards being a vocalist, it is unlikely we will see the return of a fully rapping Chan at any point in the near future. Despite what I've pointed out, however,I would call him a competent idol rapper, capable of being enjoyable and compelling when he tries hard enough. but i have not seen him take it far enough or show consistent engagement for me to rank him higher. His strengths have clearly always been more on the production end and that seems to be where he's keeping them for now.
Ranking: Low/Mid C-Tier

Han Jisung/J.One:

Han is a highly rhythmic rapper, meaning he has a pretty strict adherence to the beat and easy to follow divisions and subdivisions. He rarely if ever travels over beat or subdividing lines with his syllables, though his lines do occasionally. His preferred delivery in the beginning was to have clear and precise diction and enunciation makes his words and consonants pop, more recently he's been moving towards a gruffer delivery in certain songs but he still seems to favor the cleaner sound.
Strengths

His biggest strength here is rhythmic dexterity between fast and slow and switching between different subdivisions. I think this is what most people pick up when they talk about how great he is. As I said in my overview post, speed by itself is not the key to being a good rapper but it is certainly an indicator of skill in areas like diction and rhythmic awareness which Han has.
- Han is exceptionally gifted at high speed delivery and has been roundly praised for this and rightfully as he's probably one of the strongest fast-spitters in kpop right now. Maze of Memories has an excellent example of this, he sounds great here especially the second part of his verse, Complain also has some excellent bars in that same vein (also god that Pusha/Kanye beat is just *chef kiss*). Basically, speed for Han is not just something he pulls out as a party trick or on a verse here or there, it's highly integrated into his style and structure.
He has a lot of energy in all of their tracks and never sounds bored or disinterested even when he's rapping slower like on Shhh he still delivers with quite a bit of energy.
His softer delivery is still really charismatic and he knows when to pull back on rhythmic dexterity to let the lyrics breath. Even the shadow needs light he goes for a really simple delivery for the entire verse and it really adds to just how... heartbreaking it is? Simple flows aren't always the wrong choice and I think this was an example where if he'd tried to add a lot of flourishes it would have detracted from the message.
Another example of a more laidback great delivery from Han is on Easy, probably my fav verse of his off Go生 despite how short it is.
I know I don't normally talk about Korean lyrics but "i wanted to find myself so I called a private detective agency" is hysterical
Han is known as a freestyler. Now i take some issue with this because "freestyle" is usually used to refer to delivery off the dome (off the top of ones head) without prewritten lyrics and all of the freestyles I've seen from him have been either clearly prewritten or getting more preparation time/prewritten material (like there's the idol radio one people reference a lot where he had 2 minutes of hearing the beat to prepare + he used lyrics from Double Knot). HOWEVER! I am still very impressed with his ability to come up with verses under a tight time limit and make them match a beat. He also plays around with rhythmic changes during his freestyles a lot more than other artists might be willing to. I think if he spent time training that skill he COULD absolutely have honest to god freestyle skills.
He just has mad potential. SKZ is still a very young group and I think Han is what? 19 now. I don't think he's at his peak potential by any stretch.

Weaknesses:

Probably the biggest criticism I have with Han is that his vocal quality is so similar to other idol rappers as to be almost indistinguishable. Unlike his groupmate Changbin, he doesn't have a tone that immediately makes him stand out from others.
- Even within his group and even after MULTIPLE listenings of their albums I still found myself on occasion struggling to differentiate Hyunjin and Han. There are a few tells that I can usually pick up, namely that Hyunjin always throws his voice up at various points and Han is much more likely to add speedy rhythm sections, but in terms of timbre my ears still have a hard time telling them apart. When it is only 3racha performing this issue is much less noticeable as both Chan and Changbin are far different from Han, but in full group songs the issue becomes quite pronounced.
- I want to make clear, as I did with Ateez's Mingi last post, that having a common sounding vocal tone is not something people can usually control. Having a naturally unique tone is something only some performers are born with. Additionally, having a common tone doesn't stop someone from being a good rapper HOWEVER a huge component of being a rapper is having a unique delivery which unique vocal tones can create. Han does not naturally have this which puts him at a disadvantage (similar to how having really long limbs might be a disadvantage to a dancer) but there are ways to overcome it.
- The job of a rapper in many ways is to create their "voice" which usually means experimentation in their tone, pitch, and vocal chord strain/relaxation, additionally if the vocal quality itself isn't something they can/want to modulate a rapper can find other ways to distinguish themselves through rhythmic signatures or styles that they stick to. I actually think Han has done this in the past with the speedy rhythmic flow as i mentioned before being his signature. But this isn't something he keeps up all the time and it is difficult for him to stay dexterous on tracks if he needs to be fast in order to make an impression. Speed is good but it isn't always appropriate, and i would push Han to find other ways to make his voice stand out
- The most distinctive delivery style I've heard him use is actually a slightly slower one with drawn vowels and heavy nasality but that gets really sticky in a different way as i'll mention in the next bullet point.
Ok, this is where I'm going to get myself into some of the weeds, Stays please do not read this the wrong way, i don't say any of this out of hatred, it is observation and critique not a character judgment: Han tends to be the most derivative of other artists out of the 3 there have been a number of occasions where Han has sounded distinctly like he is imitating another rapper, Suga probably being the one he noticeably draws from the most. A few examples of this I have found are Runners High, Rock, Awaken and 0325 where both rhythmically and the way he's delivering vowels match completely, (honestly if you just played me his part of 0325 and asked me who i was listening to I'd think it was Suga). I don't think it's coincidental that this has happened quite a few times over multiple tracks, albums, years, and eras is.... concerning. Part of this is stylistic decisions that line up like the half-laugh through some lines that Suga is very known for or specific intonation. There have also been times like here in Cypher 1, where he sounds like he's imitating Zico. I hesitate to call it flow-jacking because I know the implication that carries and I really don't know if this is intentional but it IS an issue, and with Suga and Zico being perhaps the most well known Idol-rappers ever, and having many years seniority over Han, it is Han's problem to fix.
- A better example of him leaning closer to this voice without sounding derivative would be here. I think it's because he's still keeping it dryer and higher and not so oily (describing human voices is hard but I hope you can hear the difference) It plays to his strengths of diction and speed without sounding like a copy of another person's voice.
There are times when he tries to play around with rhyme placement presumably to mix things up but it just doesn't quite hit. 1Million Won has a good example of this, no matter how I slice it that flow doesn't make any sense (unless a korean speaker wants to tell me some lyrical reason why it might be happening). The stretch out of "u - top - i - a" is especially awkward.
Han's singing has improved immensely overtime but he definitely still had issues predebut, so his verse on tracks like Placebo are noticeably out of tune and clearly too high for his voice. He needed to find a lower pitch to deliver. With rapping, "out of tune" might sound weird, but considering he's staying on the same pitch (as opposed to how Changbin does on the same track where he is closer to speaking and therefore changes pitches but without a clear melodic profile) it's really clear when he doesn't hit the right note so to speak.
He does this thing quite often where he ends a line/verse by yelling a single word or sound, often before the final beat of the verse I don't know how to describe it but here are some examples , this is a big pet peeve of mine as it is usually used as a kind of shortcut to emotion or hype but actually ends up shortchanging the listener of a) a rhyme and b) a satisfying ending. Also it is rarely as hype as it's supposed to be. Anyways Han does this a LOT here are a few examples 1 / 2 / 3 / 4 / 5 he even did it in that freestyle lmao... at this point i think it might be one of his stylistic quirks but i strongly dislike it for the reasons I laid out already. JUST GIVE ME A FULL VERSE DAMMIT. I'm not saying it's always a bad decision but it's such a cliche at this point not just in idol rap but for Han specifically

Overall Han is an extremely competent rapper, capable of being truly excellent on certain tracks. My main problem, and what holds him back from a higher ranking is the difficult to distinguish vocal tone, and the tendency to derive style from other artists. I want and need to see more of his unique flair in order to rank him higher, that said his core competency for rapping is extremely high and his innate understanding of rhythm, subdivision, and flow is clear and operating at a higher level than most idol rappers.
Ranking: Mid/High B tier

Changbin/SpearB:

Changbin has a mid-low tone and HEAVILY textured voice with a ton of gravelliness and growl added and a tendency to lean into the rougher and even "uglier" facets of his tone. His delivery is often fast and chopper-like, chopper being a genre especially popular in the midwest US relying a lot on aggressive flows and focus on consonant placement and heavy alliteration. You can hear this quality in Changbin both in his speed but also in his enunciation of plosive consonants (p, b, g, d, t, k) where he adds a ton of punch and breath. When he's being less aggressive his voice falls into a mid-tone extremely nasal sound.
If i had to put a comparison point for Changbin's voice out there he reminds me a lot ofEminem (himself a student of Midwest Chopper), the closest voice to his in kpop is slightly higher pitched and more aggressive version of PO from Block B or Bigflo's main rap per Hightop (yeah bet you didn't think you were getting a Bigflo reference when you clicked on this post) But otherwise his vocal quality is pretty rare.
Strengths:

Changbin's unique vocal tone without a doubt one of his best assets and being part of the production and a central member of Stray Kids is a great benefit for him, where a lot of other idol rappers would probably need to tone down their delivery or try and soften the edges of their voice if it was like Changbin's he is REALLY able to have songs that push his style to the forefront, especially when the songs have a bit of rock, grunge, or industrial influence. Grrr, 3Racha SKZ:Player, and Gods Menu and also the intro to My Pace which is just the definition of hype shit
Changbin is particularly good at flow-switching, including while already going at a fast pace of delivery, and his breath control to push through long phrases is very good
- This can be seen here on the original Double Knot where he does a couple of longer sections in one breath each one right after the other. Unfortunately there isn't a live version of this verse which i would have loved to see.
- His verse in District 9 is also one of my favorites especially the flow-switch into double time with two low unstressed + two high stress syllables, (would we call that double-time iambic or is that pretentious) it's such an unexpected an interesting turn to take the music in but it falls right into place especially with how he ends the verse a bit slower to lead into the chorus.
This section in Easy is a great example of a less aggressive delivery from him that totally works. As he talks about how things come easily to him he switches into a much more casual laid back flow after being in his standard gruff delivery. It works for the song and i like this cleaner sound for him.
He has a tendency to use really unexpected rhythmic patterns to switch things up. His opening verse to Mirror has a good example of this, it is a similar delivery to district 9 which is a good way to connect the two tracks next to each other.
- Along with this he also makes unexpected choices in rhyme placement, including going beyond bar lines and finishing the rhyme in an off kilter fashion like here in Eunseoki
His voice pairs well with autotune and other vocal effects like on Gone Days and Cloud 9, something SKZ have been getting more into every comeback,
Unexpected and absolutely DELICIOUS rhyme schemes carrying across songs like in the song Alchemistry where he uses the "-ae/-wae" rhyme for the ENTIRE VERSE he puts in some other little couplets + rhythmic switches too but he keeps coming back to it the whole verse i just.... bro THAT is how you make a verse feel effortless
Some excellent use of consonants for rhythmic effects (and makes me wish I spoke Korean just so I could talk about wordplay), examples of this in Broken Compass with the b, d, and n syllables delivered in rhythmic yet still unexpected ways.
His laid-back delivery has some issues that I will explore in the next section but when he hits it, wow. Don Qixote especially fits so well
Changbin on a jazz beat? Changbin on a jazz beat Ok fuck i have to fan about this because jeez so the first 3 lines end with the "-illa/-iller" rhyme and then you expect it for the 4th and there's a word in there that has the "illa" sound (or something similar) BUT THE line KEEPS GOING ！！！ Little things like that just absolutely thrill me.
I'm sure some people might expect me to say that his shouty aggressive delivery is too much but honestly.... if you have a style and it's really truly YOURS i can't be mad at it. All my problems with shouty boy rap are that they are often a substitute for style or artistry or as a quick substitute for skill or training, but Changbin gives me all of that not despite his aggressive delivery but through/because of it. I don't find it grating, nor do i find that he skimps on dynamics. The style feels natural to him rather than something forced, it feels like something he arrived at after a period of exploration and experimentation, and it is a truly additive component to SKZ's work.

Weaknesses:

When he isn't spitting hard and attempts a more laid back delivery i think he has a tendency to lose a lot of his power to the point that he sounds quite uninterested. That would be ok if the songs he were doing that to were about boredom/nonchalance but in songs that don't it can sound out of place, Pacemaker, the song after Easy, has an example of this... he's talking about lifting you up with 10 thousand troops but he sounds bored as hell.
Most melodic deliveries he's tried in the past and they have been, middling, not bad but nothing that stood out. I think there's a lot of room for growth here and he might still find a sound in that lane that works better for him, but as of now it's not at the same level as his other styles.
In the context of a group song where he only has 4 bars to express himself Changbin sometimes struggles to deliver on the versatility he is capable of. This was especially apparent on the Go Live album, He clearly thrives in longer verses where he is able to develop a full arc, but these are very rare in a group context and he hasn't been as effective in adapting his delivery to fit that.
Also like... clearly this man was not meant for softer heartfelt tracks because his default is just... kinda mad sounding. He does well in songs where the primary emotion is anger, pain, grief or frustration but other emotions he still struggles to employ fully
- Here on For You where his slightly-to-very angry emotional range feels really odd and out of place, that said he does have a different and, to my ears, more appropriate sound later that same song. While I've already made clear i love his rough delivery there are times where he relies on it even in songs where that is simply not the appropriate sound. another example is On Track also his verse on Awkward Silence verse.
- I so wanted to love his SKZ-player solo but that cheesy beat is simply not meant for him. He's not skipping on the flows but the beat simply does not serve his strengths. Give the man some grit!

Before writing up this post I actually hadn't dived very deeply into SKZ music (because the title tracks were never enough to really grab my interest tbh) but in doing this I've been extremely impressed by Changbin at every turn. Not only does he have a ton of technical skill and competency but he has one of the most unique deliveries of an idol-rapper period. His vocal tone is really unique in the kpopverse and, after listening to many many idol rappers who start to all blend together, hearing something that sounds so purposefully distinct was so refreshing.
While there are some group tracks that don't play to his strengths and where he sounds a bit disconnected from the feeling of the track, this is far outweighed by the number of times he is the total standout. This opinion might change if Stray Kids started releasing only midtempo, upbeat and bright tracks, but as it is now there is about 1-2 tracks per SKZ album where I feel Changbin doesn't fit as well and then the rest of them he stands out as the best part of the song. It is really rare for me to feel like one rapper consistently steals the show (scene stealer if you will), but Changbin does it, i think he is clearly not just the best in his group but one of the best idol rappers active. Easily top 10 for me. I'm not heaping this praise on him easily, I do still have issues and areas for further growth, but I find his sound and confidence extremely engaging on every single track.
Changbin seems like he would be a great candidate to put out a solo mixtape, I'd love to see how he handles more hardcore beats (think ones like Tony Montana from Agust D-1), anything with a good guitar riff or a heavy sub-bass, he also does really well with industrial hiphop, but all of that said I also want MORE jazz Changbin and MORE east coast hiphop Changbin, give the man a hardcore hiphop beat plEASE. The way for him to rank higher at this point is simply to show me some solo work, do some collabs, and take it beyond the kpop-sphere.
Ranking: Mid A tier

The Strangest, Yet Most Common Criticism of the ST

So that Recent Daisy Ridley interview made me want to dust off an old thesis statement of sorts I’ve been saying since The Last Jedi was released. Not so much what she was saying but the reaction to it.
I was going to include this in my post about why I wondered #ReleasetheEdwardsCut was never a thing but it didn’t seem right at the time.
So Here Goes Nothing:
This is an observation I began to notice about March 2018 or so, when the “””backlash””” for TLJ really began to take form and start getting ugly. A lot of signs went in different directions so it was hard to point to one exact thing.
Then, just after Solo’s release Jeremy Jahns uploads that video, the really dumb one where he says TLJ promotes too much Social Justice or some crap like that and tried to justify everything by saying “I like the movie mother!” (because nothing says good movie like a painfully obvious allegory my neighbours ten year old could figure out in addition to watching Jennifer Lawrence have the shit beaten out of her. Also a Baby gets eaten, yeah.) and something he said in to really stuck with me.
First he Says Star Wars is a cinematic universe (it isn’t) then says “Did anyone know what RJ was doing!?”
And that was it right there, he managed to summarize what I've been observing these last few months but couldn't put into proper words.
Star Wars Fans are mad that the ST is too Directo Artistic Driven then Franchise/ Design by Committee/ Business driven.
It’s as if Jeremy was saying that he wants more studio control on these things and that directors should just follow orders and shut up. Now obviously he didn’t say those exact words I just typed but he sure as hell seemed to imply it.
Now that seems like an oddly specific thing to say people are criticizing them for and I seriously doubt you will hear that exact phrase mentioned anywhere.
But Think About it For a Moment....
How many times have you seen variations of these comments: “Rian Johnson should be on a tighter leash” “They should have had a stric plan for the ST from the start” “One person should have written/ directed the whole thing” “They should only do what the fans want” "Take a page from Marvel."
Or some comment that eludes to the notion that Disney/ Lucasfilm should have stepped in more and not let the directors do as they were hired to do.
What's funny to me is how "They should have had a plan" always translates to "I fucking hated The Last Jedi!!!!"
Now that might seem like an odd way to look at it all but this isn't the first time Star Wars has been "criticized" like this. Look at the PT for example.
In just about every review I’ve seen, both in print and YouTube, there’s always a moment where the reviewer says something along the lines of “Did no one tell George this was a bad idea?” or “Did no one challenge George on this?” This is RLM’s most common talking point.
Or those claiming Lucas surrounded himself with yes-men who would do everything he wanted and that was it. Lucas did pay for the entire PT out of his own pocket mind you. He had an entire VFX company at his disposable to make any crazy thing he imagined. Who’s to tell him what he can and can’t do? Rick McCallum sure as hell wasn't going to.
There is a certain "tragedy" for lack of a better word, when comparing Lucas in the 70s/80s to what he became in the 90s/00s. He ultimately became the very thing he rebelled against, the film producing machine where he could call the shots, order people to do as he wanted and no one could tell him otherwise. This is the entire thesis of The People Vs. George Lucas documentary.
Very few directors working today occupy the same zeitgeist that Lucas once did. Abrams certainly doesn’t and neither does Johnson or Edwards or even Howard for that matter. How many can say they changed the medium of film with just one movie?
I’d imagine anyone who wanted to seriously challenge Lucas would probably be fired on the spot for it. It would be like trying to challenge James Cameron or Steven Spielberg or David Fincher. You’d get about one inch before being kicked out of the door or in Cameron’s case, yelled out till your ears bled while your phone was nail gunned to a wall. You just couldn't do it.
The situation the new films have found themselves in pretty much sets up that criticism though.
George Lucas is gone, never coming back. He was THE BOSS and nothing was going to change that. Disney now owns Star Wars and will continue to own it until Kingdom Come. It has now crossed the rift from Filmmaker’s creative vision to Valuable franchise used for profit. Another IP to add to Disney's ever growing roster.
So now with every new director they have to answer to Lucasfilm, to Disney, to the Mouse but they aren’t treated as servants but as guests. They aren’t ordered around, they aren’t told what they can and can’t do and they have all the resources imaginable at their disposal.
A blank canvas and a $200 Million dollar cheque.
For better TFA is very much JJ Abrams from start to finish. He loves his mystery boxes and stories about young women trying to find their place in the world and male supporting characters with father issues while ultimately being a pastiche of what he loves . If you seriously think TFA was made to be a remake of ANH (It really isn't) because Disney wanted it that way for a quick buck, welcome to your first JJ Abrams film.
For worse, TROS is very JJ Abrams in the most frustrating way possible… but still very much a film made by him. Every decision made in TROS, good or bad(mainly bad), is something that has appeared in all his movies/ tv shows. You see the gear turning in his head with some of the more... questionable choices.
Even behind the scenes, when things seem iffy is never feels like “The hand of the Mouse is stepping in.” It always feels like Abrams listening to feedback from his colleagues like Spielberg and DuVernay. Or in TROS's case, bad impulses....
TLJ is pure Rian Johnson from frame one up until the credits roll. TLJ is eerily similar to the Breaking Bad episode The Fly, the first episode he directed. An entirely character focused story that examines who the characters are and what they ultimately want and their greatest fears. And just like TLJ it is still talked about to this day. Frigg, TLJ and Knives Out both have the same ending twist…
The Last Jedi’s production however is where things get interesting. TLJ might just have the smoothest and cleanest production of any Star Wars film probably ever.
The Story was set and locked before TFA was in theatres. No massive reshoots, no extreme rewrites, no behind the scenes meddling, no studio oversight, no on set drama, no crazy editing changes and finished under budget with months to spare. That doesn’t happen for like 99% of movies made today, blockbuster or not.
The PT on the other hand, oh boy.... TPM got off reasonably well. Some bad weather that destroyed sets didn't send them back too much. Some like to point to everyones reaction to the Rough Cut being the ultimate sign that everyone working on TPM knew it was going to be awful. That's the thing though, it's a rough cut, that's the whole point. It doesn't matter how good or bad any movie is at the end of the day, rough cut screenings are brutal....
ATOC and ROTS on the other hand didn't even have a finished script until about a month into shooting. And most importantly Anakin's entire motivation to turn to the dark side was added after the fact during reshoots. Which were done in late 2004 mind you. No Comment.
It was funny for a while when I’d glance at STC throughout 2018 to see where the narrative was going and the most common one for a good month was always some variation of “Did Disney mess with TLJ!?” Trying to prove that something must have gone horribly wrong during the making of the movie... except there wasn't.
And I’ve seen this play out in real time with in-person conversations, but after realizing that not only is that not the case but they can’t point to any other of the “usual suspects” to say “this is why thing bad” their only option is to say “RJ Shouldn’t have been allowed to do that!!”
If anyone is wondering why RJ is getting his own trilogy this is the reason. The dude gets shit done with no issue. Even the death of Carrie Fisher didn’t put a damper on anything(the amount of comments I’ve seen that said “why didn’t they kill of Leia” got comical).
It’s what makes watching The Director and the Jedi such a fascinating experience because everyone is looking at everything going “Is this gonna work or no?” With Emphasis on Hamill the most.
TFA’s production was kinda messy but manageable. News about TROS's production has been revealed throughout the year and most of it points to it being messy and chaotic. The making of Docs try to hide this by showing us happy faces, people passionate about what they are doing and saying “hey this is awesome!”
Then there’s the horrible realization that we live in this shitty era of movies dictated by film franchises that we watch out of obligation and internet culture creating a massive hyperbolic bubble around everything.
I remember a time whenever information about any film was released (franchise or not) and if it was revealed that there was some form of behind the scenes drama between director and studio or changes made that the director wasn't part of people got mad.
But now whenever we hear that the response is almost always “Hey they probably saved the movie from being a disaster.”
A Real Paradigm Shift.
It’s just accepted that Franchise Films are the result of produce studio oversight and that’s ultimately a good thing(that’s not to say there aren’t examples where this hasn’t been the case but that’s a discussion for another day).
Which Leads Us To...
Marvel immediately comes to mind with regards to this. After 23 movies the MCU has gone through 15 directors. Those who left after one or two movies don’t have nice things to say about it and it’s easy to see why.
It’s funny seeing some put the MCU on some pedestal for “How Franchises should be,” which I find head-scratching. The MCU might just be the most micro-managed film franchise of all time. The amount of times I’ve read some behind the scenes piece about how scenes were shot literally weeks before release or were in six months plus of reshoots after the fact is staggering or how directors get screwed over and told to take a knee. And that’s not even getting into the nitty gritty of it all like how they don’t allow directors to shoot their own action or characters being shifted roles because it would affect toy sales.
They also sure as hell don’t plan everything out.
The amount of times the MCU has retconned entire films out of existence or just pretended certain developments didn’t happen could be its own drinking game. Character development in thrown out the window for the sake of appearance. The writers of Endgame can’t seem to keep their answer straight as to where and when Captain America ended up when he wanted to spend his life with Peggy. If anything Marvel is really good at giving the impression that everything is a well maintained car while running on fumes.
Compare the Avenger’s Home Base between movies and then tell me with a straight face “Marvel Pays attention to continuity.”
As an aside, what exactly do Marvel and Star Wars have in common? Aside from being owned by Disney what do they have in common?
Nothing.....
The approach, risks taken, sense of awe, the types of stories of told. It's like comparing a nice tasty burger from that one restaurant in town to an all you can eat Buffet. Sure it's all food at the end day but theres a difference.
There’s also the matter of the type of directors that Marvel has picked. They largely go for Indie or TV directors with very little experience making films this scale. They also don’t have a huge amount of clout to their name so they can’t make huge demands for what they want. Sure some have more of a style and clout to them but those are the exceptions that proves the rule. For every Ryan Coogler or James Gunn there's The Russo Brothers or Jon Watts.
Star Wars on the other hand has actively sought out directors with experience in films this size and those who have their own style that is reflected in the ones they make. To summarize JJ Abrams is Diet-Spielberg while Rian Johnson is Quirky American Auteur. Gareth Edwards could be the next “mostly” poignant blockbuster director while Ron Howard is a seasoned Veteran.
Star Wars could have easily have grabbed any number of pencil pusher directors and gave them ultra strict guidelines to follow and nothing else. Have them make movies that are nothing more than giant fan service reels aimed at getting all the fan dollars in the world. And I think that's what so many kind of expected we were getting from the get go and are confused and out right mad that isn't the case.
To Quote u/friedAmobo
"Disney and Lucasfilm, regardless of what some people may think, are not stupid - they know the best way to make money is to do what the fans want. That would mean Luke being the main character in TFA, the main trio reuniting, and other fan service moments that would make Rogue One blush. The fact that TFA\ ***isn’t*** *about any of that is telling. It means they had an idea for something different, and they made it."*
"TLJ is even more condemning for the cash grab argument. Rian Johnson was the sole writer and director of the movie, and as we all know, the movie was very divisive. But how was that a cash grab, then? If Lucasfilm wanted to make tons of money, they could have a powerful Luke train Rey, and then have him beat the First Order on Crait with super Force powers. It’d have made an easy couple hundred million dollars more. The fact that they didn’t do that, but ended up going with a story that had the potential to be divisive is, again, telling."
But…. then you have the complete 180 with the anthology films. Rogue One and Solo and reading into their production is mind boggling. For as much as TROS’s production seemed like a nightmare, the production of these two seemed like fighting Nightmare from Metroid: Fusion.
No one wants to come clean with what the hell happened with Rogue One. What movie completely reshoots it’s final act with a little over 6 months before release(not saying it doesn’t happen just bare with me here)? Gareth Edwards is probably never going to talk about how he was basically fired from it and replaced with Tony Gilroy. You think it’s anyway surprising that he has nothing to do with this Cassian Disney+ series?
Solo had its directors fired midway through production then reshot the entire movie with someone else. That Doesn't Happen…… I remember hearing that during the summer of 2017 and my coworkers and I just laughed our heads off at it. The notion of a Han Solo movie (without Harrison Ford) was such a ridiculous idea at the time and then this happened on top of it.
There’s also the uncomfortable truth that no one wants to admit about the Anthology Films.
They Aren’t About Anything.
Not that they aren’t about “anything” in the literal sense, but more so in the “these films exist to shove Star Wars nostalgia in your face and nothing else.” They are set during the OT era for frigg sake and throw LORE and CANON junk at you to make up for their complete lack of emotional/ dramatic meaning(I say this as someone who enjoys Solo greatly).
Because they are side stories you the viewer don’t have to worry about anything of major consequence happening in them that would affect the main narrative (Skywalker Saga in this case). They can do whatever they want and basically a safe bet for an audience. You don't have to worry abut your favourite characters being killed or doing things you don't agree with. It’s like a video game side quest where all you get is a shiny new item by the end of it that’s good for a while until you get something better an hour later.
This might not seem like much but I think fans seriously underestimate the power that comes with these being a side story. The Mandalorian fits into this category as well and something that Hello Greedo has praised the show excessively for.
Add on the fact that Disney/ Lucasfilm is going to keep making Star Wars content in the form of movies/ Live Action series/ animation until the ice caps melt and we all die. It's not out of the realm of possibility that something you've always "wanted" might one day happen.
To quote my very good friend u/SorryNotSpartacus:
“They also, very simply, are not the main saga, and I think people underestimate how much of a difference that makes to the fan audience that by and large seems to respond more positively to the anthology films. Most fans are used to reading or watching EU material.”
I recall seeing multiple comments early 2018 “RJ should have been given an Anthology film(s) instead.” As if to say “That way he can do what he wants and I don’t have to worry about it,” or something to that affect.
But there’s also the sad fact at the end of day that’s all Star Wars fans “Want.” They don’t want a story or anything meaningful but a shrine to their nostalgia, a two hour fan service reel or a big “thank you” for being fans. Fulfill their own expectations and make them feel nothing but superficial joy. Don't let them think or feel anything else in the process.
To quote Frank Oz:
“All the people who don’t like this ‘Jedi’ thing is just horse crap. It’s about expectations. The movie didn’t fill their expectations. But as Filmmakers, we’re not here to fill people’s expectations.”
He’s talking about The Last Jedi if that wasn’t clear.
You’d think this would be obvious but so many fans seem to think it’s the other way around that these things exists to validate them as fans and nothing else.
Don’t believe me? Go to any Star Wars sub reddit and search “this but un-ironcally,” or just type any number of words followed be “fans.” The results might surprise you… or won’t. Better yet just Search Rogue One and look for the most upvoted post.
It's why I take issue with that recent quote from Jon Favreau that's been floating around for the last few weeks.
“We alway knew, and this was something I learned from over at Marvel and working with Kevin Feige, is you always want to keep core fans in mind, because they have been the ones that’ve been keeping the torch lit for many, many years, but there are also stories for young people and for new audiences. These are myths, and you always want to have an outstretched hand to people who might not have that background . And so you’re really telling two stories at once. You’re telling the story for the people who are fresh eyes, and you’re telling the story for the people who’ve been there with the property and with the stories and characters for many years, and make sure you’re honouring them as well.”
Almost as if he's saying "Just shove enough fan-service onscreen, someone will recognize it and it will make up for our lack of story telling abilities." It's funny how he uses what he learned from Marvel as "collective wisdom" when he got screwed hard when trying to make Iron Man 2 a movie about Tony Stark dealing with his own death.
Stop treating these very corporately controlled entities like they are your best friend, they are not and never will be. Even if you think you have, it's not real.
You think this wouldn’t have to be said but it needs to:
You as a fan do not own Star Wars. Buying all the stickers and Funko Pops doesn’t make you an owner no matter how you stretch it. You do not have a say on how these things go, you do not get to say what can and can’t happen, you are not the writer, you are not the director, you are not the person who wipes the table off after a meeting because same jack-hole split coffee all over it. You are the person who buys a ticket then bitches online about it.
Then again there is always the obvious “fans have no fucking idea what the hell they even want anymore.” Not that I’m free from this, I sure as hell don’t know what I want. I could give some vague answer like “More Babu Frik” but even that seems too broad.
I saw a really dumb tweet around February 2018 that showed two posters, The Last Jedi and Justice League and the tweeter said "Filmmakers of these franchises should be actively aware what fans want and go out of their way to ensure that."
Naturally most of the replies were ridiculing the guy for his flawed logic. The most liked reply came from someone who said the following "This implies that Star Wars fans actually know what the hell they even want."
Also Justice League failed because it didn't do what the fans want? Oi Vey....)
None of this is to say anything you yourself have criticized any of the ST films isn’t valid to you or someone else. Unless you’re one of those people who thinks “They have a secret political agenda!” in which case please stop.
For as much as I talked about the ST being filmmake director driven they are still very much films released by Disney for the sake of profit. It’s just as much an art form as it is a business. Just as much of a product as they are a piece of fiction. For as much as RJ and his cast and crew have talked about the freedom he was given, he's not going to kill off all the characters and have Rey become a film scholar and analyze the works of Zack Snyder.
The ST films are not art house epics and never will be.
Neither is the PT or OT for that matter. Lucas is a much better businessman than director. He knew damn well the PT was his ticket to make up losing half his fortune after his messy divorce. Keep things going so he can basically retire once ROTS was done.
But that’s all I have to say on the matter. This was based entirely on observation and conversations with others.
Also there is no JJ-cut of TROS. There is no version of The Rise of Skywalker in which all the past Jedi appear as ghosts and start doing all the kick flips imaginable that was cut because CHINA.
It Doesn't Exist.

Will China's PLAN survive contact with the enemy?

The best laid PLANs of mice and men often go awry.

Welcome back to another effortpost by me generally on the developing arms race in East Asia, this time covering the People's Liberation Army Navy, hereafter referred to as the "PLAN", and its massive growth... and... mostly, well, its massive growth. What that means is mostly covered in other posts about how other countries are responding to it. The why is a bit difficult because, well, China is not well known for open debate, or open anything, really, which will turn up repeatedly.

What you [might] need to know about South Korea's ludicrous arms buildup
We shall fight on the seas and oceans, we shall fight with growing confidence and growing strength in the air, we shall defend our island, whatever the cost may be. We shall fight on the beaches.... uh, what do we do after that again?: The Perilous Defensive Position of Taiwan
"You've hit another cargo ship? The Problems with the US Navy: Not all of them begin with "Seven" and end with "th Fleet"."
Will China's PLAN survive contact with the enemy?
Biden's New START and modern nuclear war
First And Last Stand Of The Tin Can Navies [ASEAN + Australia and the smaller adversaries China may contend with]
Boned: Problems in the US Air [and space!] Force
--Unnamed-- effortpost on Japanese military matters, mostly about how weird the JSDF status is
--Unnamed--effortpost on Indian military matters, and why they can't focus on China or buy anything that works
--Unnamed--effortpost on the rest of the PLA, mostly the air force though
--Unnamed--effortpost on the rest of the US Armed Forces, mostly talking about how the marines are changing and the Army's new love affair with INF-busting weapons
Conclusion?

Glossary:
PLA = People's Liberation Army = the armed forces of the People's Republic of China, or China
PLAN = People's Liberation Army Navy = the naval forces of the PLA
PLANAF = People's Liberation Army Navy Air Force = the air force of the navy of the PLA
Ashm = Anti-ship missile, cruise missile unless specifically described as otherwise--there's only one anti-ship ballistic missile in existence and its efficacy and whether or not it functions is questionable
CIWS = close-in weapons system, like the Phalanx gun or Goalkeeper
VLS = vertical launch system for missiles
AEGIS = Aegis Combat System if described specifically in that context, a US naval warfare system, but we'll usually be talking about "Chinese AEGIS", which is a nomiker used by the Chinese media in particular comparing the Type 346 radar to the AN-SPY family, with which it shares numerous technical characteristics--but how comparable the "Chinese AEGIS" system is to what the US uses is a complete unknown.
SAM = Surface-to-air missile, in this case usually a S-300 derivative
First Island Chain = The islands, stretching from Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia, the Philippines, Taiwan, and Japan, which keep China inside its littoral seas much as the GIUK [Greenland-Iceland-UK] gap has kept various continental powers out of the Atlantic.

Some PLAN equipment you might see described--the nomenclature is confusing and a relic of the cultural revolution, and as a result China now has more Types than the British.
Type 003 = China's new conventionally powered supercarriers, currently under construction
Type 002 = China's first truly "operational" carrier
Type 001 = China's first carrier, built on a Soviet hull purchased from Ukraine ostensibly to make a floating casino
Type 055 = Guided-missile cruiser, though generally called a destroyer it's probably more descriptively labeled a cruiser
Type 052D = Guided-missile destroyer using "Chinese AEGIS"
Type 052/051B/052B/052C = the gradual progression of evolving Chinese naval tech, largely built as practice/demo ships like the Type 001. Some of the earlier ones are steam-powered but by the Type 052C you have something almost as advanced as the Type 052D, albeit with turbine problems
Type 054A = the standard modern frigate of the PLAN
Type 053[anything] = old PLAN frigates
Type 096 = China's newest SSBN class, under construction
Type 094 = China's first functional SSBN class, very noisy
Type 092 = China's first "SSBN", believed to have never left port with an actual nuke on board
Type 095 = China's newest SSN class, under construction
Type 093 = China's current SSN class, noisy
Type 091 = China's first SSN class, dumb dumb dumb and is at a 1950s tech level
Type 039[A] = China's new SSK class
Kilo = China's older SSK class, imported from Russia
Sovremenny = China's first capable anti-air destroyers, imported from Russia

1. The Last Time A Rising Navy Challenged A Dominant Foe

The last time we've seen something like this was in the late 19th century. After the First World War shipbuilding was restricted by the landmark Washington Naval Treaty, one of the first great arms control treaties, and during the Cold War the Soviet Union never really had any hopes of surpassing American naval power. China, however, seems intent on replacing the US as the world's dominant naval power, or at least building a force that can stop the US Navy, even combined with the forces of Japan and other regional allies.

The nations in question, of course, in the last naval arms race, were the United Kingdom and a newly-unified Germany. Germany never reached the level of the UK, but seriously threatened it. Previously the UK had maintained a policy of having more ships than the next two largest fleets combined, but this was no longer possible, and the UK legitimately was fearful for its naval supremacy. It didn't last too long in the end--under a decade--and a resumption was foiled by first a world war and then the Washington Naval Treaty. The impact of the arms race, though, was massive. It set Germany and the UK at odds with each other, it resulted in a general buildup of warships pretty much everywhere [South America was, believe it or not, one of the biggest offenders there], established Germany for a time as the world's second naval power, having eclipsed both France and Russia and turning a small coastal defense navy into something that was able to defeat the Royal Navy itself, though never comprehensively enough to change the course of the first world war.

China dwells in a much different situation than Germany did at the turn of the last century, so we can only extend the analogy so far--substituting in Japan for the UK, India for Russia, and so on is possible but not, in my view, educational. However, we can see many of the same elements playing in here. China seems intent on replacing the US as a dominant power, or at least as regional hegemon--the ancient tributary system seems to lie fairly heavily on Chinese minds--and in order to do that, it must be able to have some degree of power projection and the capability to deny the US Navy access to areas within the first island chain. It remains to be seen, however, how successful that quest will be. Much as with the dreadnought battleships, I wouldn't be surprised if we never actually do find out if most of the shiny naval toys people have built actually work. But their mere existence shows the mutual hostility developing in the region and demonstrates the size of the Chinese threat.

Another lesson learned here is that China, like Germany, may not develop a naval force capable of defeating the US comprehensively, but only partially, and that one of the powers--in this case, China--might be pressured to strike first before the US Navy can close the gap. That ~2030 gap I talked about in my last post is, I think, an especially vulnerable point, because China may look at a degraded, but rejuvenating US Navy, then at their own capable forces, and decide to strike then in Taiwan and the South China Sea, only to back down when the US Navy again eclipses them. Whether or not that will happen, we will see--but I find it a very dangerous and perhaps likely possibility.

2. What the PLAN looked like 20 years ago

The PLAN has undergone an absolutely stunning evolution in the past two decades. In the Third Taiwan Strait Crisis the US could intimidate China with a pair of aircraft carrier strike groups and China could do pretty much nothing about it. Now the US is afraid of sending anything more than a destroyer through the strait.

Twenty years ago, the PLAN was a bit of a joke. Even Taiwan figured it could hold the seas against the PLAN. It consisted of a few tens of outdated coastal-defense frigates, some Soviet-era diesel-electric subs, and a large number of unsophisticated missile craft. The pride of the Chinese fleet were a handful of destroyers assembled using cobbled-together Western technology--copied French missiles, American gas turbines, the lot. According to American accounts at the time, the instructions for the equipment hadn't even been translated. The most advanced ship in the fleet used steampower. There were nuclear submarines, but of 1950s quality. Of particular note was the fact that the Chinese fleet had no area air defense capabilities--their premier surface-to-air-missile was an unlicensed knockoff of the French Crotale, and couldn't shoot anything outside of visual range, at high altitudes, or really doing anything more sophisticated than trying to kill their ships with low-altitude dumb bombing runs.

In the past twenty years, however, the PLAN has, much like the German Navy towards the end of the 19th century, gone from an afterthought to the world's second most powerful force. It began, as modern China's military capabilities almost all began, with the looting of the former Soviet Union for naval technology. While Soviet naval tech was generally lacking, it was much better than anything else China could get its hands on after the arms embargo placed on it in the 1990s by the US and Europe in response to Tienanmen and the end of the Cold War. China bought Soviet diesel submarines, Soviet air-defense destroyers, and Soviet aircraft carriers, which it promptly left lying around [and turned one of them into a theme park]. This was combined with copies of various pieces of Western, mostly European, technology for everything from sonars to surface-to-air missiles. China then began developing its first modern indigenous surface combatants, the Type 052C, but there were still problems. The engines were Ukrainian and had reliability trouble, the gun jammed, there was no VLS.

It is really in the last ten years that things have begun to move extremely quickly, and even only in the latter portion of the decade. In 2012 the Type 001 Liaoning entered service, and although it remains more of a training ship than an operational vessel, and is held back by a poor carrier aircraft, the mere fact that China "built" a carrier was a surprise to many. In 2014 the first Type 052D destroyer came online. It had learned the lessons from the Type 052C, and in just the last six years at least ten have entered service, with a class size of about 23 expected. This rapid expansion is what has frightened competing navies the most--in a little over a decade, the PLAN is constructing more destroyers than the British, French, and Australian navies have in service combined. It is also building the Type 055, which has generally been called a "destroyer" despite being more aptly described as a cruiser in line with the Ticonderoga-class. China has also built 30 modern frigates in the past decade, which has also swelled its numbers, along with numerous smaller corvettes, submarines, and so on.

This is why the PLAN has become such an object of concern. While it cannot challenge the US Navy yet, at least outside its littoral zones, the decline of the USN and rapid expansion of the PLAN means that it is a serious threat. And the speed at which it has developed has made many fearful. As recently as 2010, the idea of China operating an aircraft carrier or modern destroyers seemed distant, possibly preposterous. Now China speaks openly of having a six-carrier fleet in the 2030s, although, as with many of China's plans to operate full US-replicated tech and doctrine, these may have somewhat caved to realism. China is mighty, but it has already done the easy part--the last part is much harder, in economics and in military matters. Building the software, the institutional knowledge, the hardware to compete with the US Navy will prove difficult.

3. What the PLAN looks like now--submarines

Submarines are one of the PLAN's weak spots, particularly nuclear submarines. China is, however, making some fairly rapid advances in this area.

Their nuclear submarine program has been considered a bit of a joke for some time. In the late 1950s when all the cool ~~kids~~ great powers were getting nuclear submarines, China decided [or at least Mao did] that China needed nuclear submarines too. About 16 years later, the product of this effort finally emerged as the Type 091 submarine. Based on 1950s technology, with poor radiation shielding and basically nothing done in the name of noise reduction, and not even a teardrop hull, the Type 091 was probably more of a threat to the sailors who were on it than anyone else, except maybe the two Tench-class submarines that Taiwan operates, which use 1940s technology and are the world's longest-serving submarines, though they're mostly used for training nowadays. Even then, my money would be on the Tench despite the upgrades the PLAN has made to the Type 091. There's only so much you can do to put lipstick on a pig.

China also produced an SSBN, the Type 092, which was probably the only submarine more useless than the Type 091. About the only useful thing it did for the PLAN was that it served as a test platform for SLBM launches. Reports suggest that the Type 092 is the noisiest SSBN ever made, and is thought to have only ever undertaken a single patrol. It stayed at port for so long that it was thought to have sunk in an accident. And the experience turned the PLAN off from building SSBNs for over twenty years, until the Type 094 came online in 2007.

More recent submarines are growing in capability, though. The Type 094 is not the noisiest SSBN ever made, and may not even be the noisiest in current service--that honor going to the Delta III operated by the Russian Navy, which uses 1970s technology, and, which, according to the US Office of Naval Intelligence, is about as noisy as the Type 094. The Type 093 is also moderately capable--it actually functions and can fire anti-ship missiles. However, the Type 093 is still considered only comparable to the Soviet Victor III class, again using 1970s technology. Future submarines have not yet been seen, but expectations are that China will make another step forward to late 1980s or early 1990s tech levels, producing something on par with the Los Angeles or Akula for the first time.

China also operates a fairly capable fleet of coastal diesel-electric submarines. While some are quite old--the Type 035--most are pretty average for the global submarine force, a mix of Kilos and domestic AIP designs. The large number of boats in operation and their anti-ship missile capability means that these should be considered a real threat, at least in the littoral waters near to China, but they aren't decisive by any means, especially since China is facing off against such threats as Japan's Soryu class, probably the most advanced diesel-electric sub in existence.

In conclusion, the PLAN is still pretty weak on the submarine front--weaker here than on anything but its carrier force, but its capabilities are advancing rapidly and should not be underestimated.

4. What the PLAN looks like now--surface combatants

The surface fleet is definitely the most impressive and capable portion of the PLAN, no questions about it. China once had a fleet consisting mostly of coastal frigates and missile boats. As recently as 2000, its fleet had no real area-air-defense destroyers, and no SAMs that could operate outside visual range. Now, though, the PLAN operates tens of advanced guided-missile destroyers, advanced frigates, and still retains a large number of small, stealthy missile boats.

The major focus of Chinese warships appears to be on anti-air, with anti-surface being a somewhat secondary concern for all but the smallest vessels. This makes sense when you realize that the primary focus is, at least for the moment, on using land-based aircraft to strike against hostile fleet formations using long-range anti-ship missiles, in a very Soviet sort of way--"Backfire raids" using long-range land-based aircraft with anti-ship missiles were one of the US Navy's major concerns during the Cold War, and the very reason for the F-14's existence along with the AIM-54 Phoenix it carried. However, China has been developing anti-surface capabilities as well using ashms and land-attack cruise missiles [generally the same thing, actually]. Since China has finally developed a VLS system that allows it to use the same launcher for multiple missiles, its most recent ships have become more versatile in that role.

How effective these ships are at that task is, however, a relatively open question. Their radars at least seem to quite sophisticated, using flat-panel AESA, and have been dubbed "Chinese AEGIS" by the highly reliable Chinese domestic media. The basic platform their surface-to-air missiles are based on also seems to be fairly capable--the HQ-9 is an S-300 derivative, a respectable SAM system though, again, how capable it is against opponents in an active electronic warfare environment is questionable, and it has basically no capabilities against stealth aircraft like the F-35 as far as anyone knows. The efficacy of their CIWS, again, is open to question. Really this is true of everything about the modern PLAN, and PLA in general. The PLA is secretive, has not exported most of its hardware, and has developed largely independently of foreign militaries, though it is definitely influenced by them. Now that the PLAN has moved away from simply copying foreign hardware and patching it together, its capabilities are much harder to discern.

However, they should be taken as a very real threat, and not written off. My guess would be that their warships are about as capable as most of their non-American counterparts, save those equipped with AEGIS, but that's all my guess is---a guess.

5. What the PLAN looks like now--carriers

The PLAN currently has two carriers in service, and two more known to be under construction, and most suspect that it will build several more. However, at the moment, the PLAN's carrier force is largely a paper tiger, designed around training. The first carrier, the Type 001, basically was a "how do you build a carrier" kit bought from Russia, possibly by accident--the "fully functional" Minsk ended up as a theme park, believe it or not. The hull was purchased from Ukraine and then completed in China years later. It is also believed that the PLAN may have learned some things about aircraft carriers from the HMAS Melbourne, which was sold to a Chinese firm for scrapping--rumor has it the PLAN had no clue this had happened and then had a field day looking at all the stuff that hadn't been taken out. This was back in the old days when nobody could imagine that China would have an aircraft carrier. The Type 002, however, is built from scratch, but isn't particularly capable especially as it's a ski-jump carrier, leaving the Type 003 the first carrier which will prove actually useful.

The main thing holding China's carrier fleet back, though, is a lack of a suitable aircraft. Originally China was considering purchasing Su-33s from Russia, hardly a good carrier-based aircraft but functional, but after Russia discovered that China had been mucking about building a Su-27 derivative without asking the deal fell through [China tells a different story, saying that Russia demanded exorbitant amounts to reopen production which it was unwilling to pay for a nearly obsolete aircraft]. As a result China operates the J-15 as its naval fighter, with... less than stellar results. It's extremely heavy, and, if it takes off from the carrier, has minimal range if carrying anything at all--it can't take more than two short range air to air missiles into the sky to fight enemy aircraft. However, the J-15 isn't really intended for combat service--it's intended to teach China how to run carriers, and it seems to work well enough for that task, aside from the multiple fatal crashes. There is, however, thought to be a new carrier fighter in the pipeline--most say the J-31/FC-31, which has reduced RCS and a number of carrier-unique features, is being pitched as a carrier-based aircraft and will serve as China's carrier fighter in the future. China also lacks any fixed wing carrier-based airborne early warning, which could prove troublesome--a lack of AEW means that its view is limited by the horizon--and has no resupply aircraft like the C-2 Greyhound. As a result, for the moment at least, China lacks an effective carrier force, but it is likely to continue developing rapidly in the next decade and become a fairly substantial threat. Remember that as recently as 2010, a Chinese aircraft carrier seemed preposterous to many people, and now they have two.

6. Some attention to land-based aircraft

Land-based aircraft as a naval weapon are not generally used by the US, which has never had a reason to develop them as a doctrinal focus. Sure, you could potentially envision them as being used, and there even were situations where they were utilized, but it just wasn't generally a priority or how things were done. For China, though, taking influence from the Soviets, and lying on littoral seas with hostile powers in the First Island Chain, land-based aircraft and missiles are a key part of doctrine. Although this is often viewed as a new thing, called A2/AD [anti access/area denial], it's really the result of a long historical evolution of naval power, probably most refined by the Soviet Union. As a result, land-based naval aviation plays an important role, firing anti-ship missiles at standoff distances at enemy vessels, and shore-based launchers of anti-ship missiles are also an important weapon. The combination of these systems means that venturing within China's littoral seas is a dangerous proposition during war, and some waters, like those of the Taiwan Strait, are effectively considered closed at this point in the event of hostilities breaking out. For this reason air superiority is also important in this sort of naval warfare, as if either side gains air superiority it can pummel its opponents with air-launched anti-ship missiles. China's capabilities in this area are sophisticated and should not be underestimated, but they are unlikely to go through a rapid period of growth like the PLAN's fleet.

And a brief note dedicated entirely to the DF-21D "Carrier killer" that the PLA likes to show off. It's a pretty impressive capability, on paper, using a ballistic missile to hit a carrier. The CEP [circular error probable] means that it could even happen, presuming that an aircraft carrier was good enough to sit in one place, not moving, long enough to be detected by China. Aircraft carriers look big, but the seas are huge, and they're surprisingly hard to find. They also move quite fast, in excess of of 35mph/55kph, and thus by the time the ballistic missile has launched it might well be out of range given the fact that ballistic missiles are not particularly known for their maneuverability in terminal stages, at least not in the realm of miles. The DF-21D is not a particular threat to the modern aircraft carrier. It could potentially be one if it evolves into a hypersonic boost-glide vehicle, but that's a whole additional can of worms, that I might address a different day.

7. The PLAN's plans for the future--what will it look like in 2030?

Unfortunately the PLAN is not exactly the most open of navies, as I've repeatedly mentioned. There are no public debates over acquisitions programs, no big fleet shape plans, relatively little detail.

However, a few things are fairly sure bets or publicly announced.

China has repeatedly announced plans to build a six-carrier force, including the Type 001 and Type 002, but also a pair of Type 003 [already under construction] conventionally powered supercarriers and a pair of Type 004 nuclear powered supercarriers. However, it seems that the Type 004 is currently on hold. Why, exactly, is unclear, but it seems to be technical difficulties, which are not particularly surprising given that China's experience with nuclear maritime propulsion seem to be rather limited and have had poor results in their submarine fleet. The costs were also expected to be too high--China does not have an unlimited quantity of money, despite what it may flaunt, and nuclear carriers are expensive to develop especially given that China has not built a nuclear-powered surface ship before.

A new carrier-based fighter is almost certainly in the cards because the J-15 is pretty much useless. The FC-31 seems by far the most likely candidate but it could be another aircraft we haven't seen yet. The addition of this aircraft will greatly improve the PLAN's capabilities.

China also has two Type 075 amphibious assault ships/LHDs under construction, and I would expect this class to be much more prolific. These ships are much more affordable than the full carriers, and focus on areas in which China is particularly concerned--amphibious assaults, say, on islands in the South China Sea or on Taiwan, and anti-submarine warfare, which is of particular importance given that submarines cannot be easily halted with land-based anti-ship missiles and air-launched cruise missiles provided for in their area denial doctrine--submarines are one of the few things that can slip through that net.

The surface combatant fleet is likely to continue growing, but I am not sure if it will swell much beyond the ~23 Type 052D ships planned and the 8 Type 055s. We're likely to see the retirement of the classes preceding the Type 052C destroyer and the Type 054 frigate, and they may be offloaded to Bangladesh, Myanmar, or Pakistan--there is substantial precedent here, and it seems that China is interested in expanding the naval capabilities of its partners around India.

The submarine fleet is likely to see rapid expansion if the PLAN is satisfied with the Type 095 and Type 096 classes, and we're likely to see more diesel-electric subs built as well. Submarines are generally quite good at fighting submarines and conducting area-denial missions, and the large and capable subsurface forces of Japan, Korea, and the United States means that this has to be an area the PLAN invests more in--and the fact that several Southeast Asian nations are also looking at acquiring submarines makes the issue more pressing.

8. Conclusion

China has in the past decade gone from a third-rate navy to perhaps the greatest threat the US Navy has faced since the Second World War. This has significant geopolitical implications, and has resulted in neighbors scrambling to overhaul their naval forces. The growth of the PLAN means that the US can no longer easily defend Taiwan or the South China Sea, or any of China's littoral waters. This, more than anything else, is what has everyone scrambling in the US talking about "great-power competition" because denying access to the US Navy and working on power projection, an inherently naval thing, is essentially a clear sign that China is looking to directly compete with the United States. Underestimate the PLAN at your own peril.

I hope to have more detail and citations in future posts, but unfortunately the PLAN is very secretive [yes, I've said that fifty times already] and this is a pretty big topic to discuss without going into details about all sorts of naval tidbits. Thanks for reading the fourth post in what I hope will be a fairly substantial series, probably around ~12 posts.

9. Citations

James Holmes, "The Danger Zone In Naval Arms Races"
USNI, Report to Congress on Chinese Naval Modernization
Hans Kristensen, China's Noisy Nuclear Submarines
Eric Wertheim, China's Type 052D Destroyer is a potent adversary
Robert Farley, Let's Talk About The Chinese Navy's Type 055 Destroyer
Ryan Pickrell, Chinese fighter jet holding China back as it builds carrier fleet
Look, much more here is based on loose speculation, more unreliable sources, and stuff I've picked up over the years, because public info is limited. So take everything I say with a grain of salt, but understand that it's the best information I know of.

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Will China's PLAN survive contact with the enemy?

1. The Last Time A Rising Navy Challenged A Dominant Foe

2. What the PLAN looked like 20 years ago

3. What the PLAN looks like now--submarines

4. What the PLAN looks like now--surface combatants

5. What the PLAN looks like now--carriers

6. Some attention to land-based aircraft

7. The PLAN's plans for the future--what will it look like in 2030?

8. Conclusion

9. Citations

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