Whether you’re one year into the game or over a decade in, what are some of the tips and tricks you’ve picked up along the way that have helped you become a more profitable bettor?
Seen a couple posts on here lately from people looking for tips on gambling, bank roll management, etc. Figured I’d add in some things I’ve learned that have helped me this season.
1). Figure out your unit size and stick to it religiously, win or lose.
I would say this is the first and most important step you should take before placing a bet. A good rule of thumb is to make your unit size around 5% of your bankroll. So if your bankroll is $1,000, then your one unit should be $50.
And when making bets, try to be consistent with the unit size you’re betting. Personally, I never go over 2U on one single bet. Far too often I’ve seen someone bet $100/bet and go on a four-bet win streak, then on that fifth bet they decide to risk it all and lose. Now, instead of being 4-1 (+$300ish), you’re now 4-1 (-$100).
2). Start tracking your bets.
We’ve all had that moment trying to navigate to the “graded bets” section of our Sportsbook to look back at past bets, only to find an unorganized rambling of words.
Instead, try keeping track of your bets in an organized manner. There are several apps out there that help with tracking bets (i.e. Action Network, BetQL, etc.) but an Excel spreadsheet works just as good. This is how I set up mine.
This helps for several reasons. For one, it helps me ensure I’m keeping my units bet consistent. But it also helps me keep track of how much I’ve won (or lost). For instance, when I first started out, seeing that I was minus-$1000 helped bring me to the moment where I had to tell myself that either I need to stop gambling or I need to seriously reconsider my approach.
3). Don’t be a full-on parlay whore or a teaser slut.
It’s easy to get sucked into the lure of the parlays and teasers. As a former whore/slut to these sucker bets, I know.
Sure, winning $2,000 off of a $100 parlay sounds a lot better than winning $90 off a $100 straight bet. However, the probability of hitting one compared to the other is a heck of lot lower as well.
But if playing parlays and teasers is an itch you just need to scratch, consider playing them in smaller units. I personally play one parlay a week, but I keep it at 0.25u and I limit it to three teams max and when I play teasers, I only do two-teamers (-110 or -120 depending on your book).
4). Never make emotional or angry bets. Ever.
In simpler terms: Don’t chase losses.
In betting, you’ll have winning nights and you’ll have losing nights. But the main difference between profitable bettors and losing bettors? One knows how to take a losing night on the chin and live to fight another day while the other foolishly adds on to the losses.
Sure, you might get lucky and hit a desperation bet to recoup some of the losses. But at that point, you’re making bets purely off of emotion—or under the influence of alcohol—instead of off research. More often than not, you’re not going to like the result that comes with that style of betting.
5). Don’t pay for picks.
You’re already giving the house juice, why add more by paying someone else daily or monthly for their picks?
Instead, look into purchasing resources that are not only far more cheaper but also can help you make better-informed picks (i.e. Pro Football Focus, Action Network, Sportsline, etc.) Once you start to educate yourself on line movements, knowing which side the smart money is coming in and which sides are getting steamed, you’ll start to make educated bets on your own.
6). Learn from your mistakes and successes.
At the end of the week, I always like to take a look back at what worked and what didn’t.
If a bet lost, I try and look back and see what I read wrong. For instance, I was on the Saints spread in their MNF game against the Raiders. All the experts, all the smart money was on the Raiders. Even the line movement on the day of was going the Raiders way (from -5.5 down to -4). In hindsight, with the smart money and my gut being on opposite sides, this should have been a “no play” for me. As a result, moving forward I usually highlight 3 or 4 games I like around Tuesday and keep track of the lines posted on my books, the bet% and money% and anything else. Then when game day approaches, if everything aligns, I place the bet. If not, I hold.
As they say, sometimes the best bet you make is the one you don’t place.

That’s really all that jumps out to me. Anyone else have other things they’ve learned along the way?

Hi CMV,
This is a view I've been developing for a while as both a man and a lover of sports. Over the last few years, I've seen several of my close friends get sucked into this extremely addictive cycle of sports gambling. Some have gone as far as to open illegal books, participate in illicit gambling, owe people significant money, and wasting money they should have used for other purposes to gamble on games that, quite honestly, nobody who isn't a fan of specific teams would ever give a shit about. If they weren't betting $5-15 on sports a few times a week and instead going to the casino and playing blackjack weekly, it would obviously be seen as a real addiction.
Personally, I do like betting on the occasional game. It's now legal where I live and I have the disposable income to do it every once in a while. I generally tend to bet on big games, like the NBA finals happening over the next few weeks. I also play fantasy football and basketball which I don't really think apply here because that's much more interactive and is a good way to stay in touch with friends.
More to the point; I think toxic masculinity applies here for a number of specific reasons which I'll list below. As a general principle, I have a pretty lenient view on toxic masculinity in the sense that I think the term is widely overused, but I do strongly believe it's a real thing and have little interest debating that unless it's necessary for your arguments.

1. Historically, gambling has always caused problematic relationships between men and women, particularly those in relationships. There is a long, well documented history of gambling addictions that tear apart families and couples. Now, I'm no Quaker, but the degree to which sports betting is being promoted as a cool guy thing is very toxic and against solid morals.
   
2. Many sports gamblers are absolutely addicted and refuse to acknowledge it. Failing to accept flaws in personality and mental health are core tenets of toxic masculinity. The refusal to ask for and receive help also fits into this definition of toxic masculinity.
   
3. By definition, toxic masculinity pushes men to take risks that they should not take. Not much else to say on this.
   
4. Sports should be enjoyed for the sake of enjoying them. I find it toxic to feel the need to insert yourself into a game that has nothing to do with you. If you otherwise wouldn't be interested in a game, betting on it should not be how you gain interest. Again, it's one thing to think you'll make it big by betting on the Super Bowl or something, but if, for example, you're not normally a fan and betting weekly on parlays involving bad, unwatchable teams like the NY Jets, the Detroit Tigers, and Wolverhampton, that's toxic. You're just trying to force interest in boring games by putting your own money on the line in some toxic desire to win when you otherwise have nothing riding on these games.
   
5. The internal need to earn fast cash through frequent gambling applies the tenet of toxic masculinity involving the search for social status and money. Men commonly feel unfulfilled and inadequate if they're unable to earn "enough" money through normal means, and they will thus seek other, much riskier avenues for financial and social status.
   

I could go on and on but I feel like I'd get repetitive as the list got too long. What I'm arguing here in short is that there's suddenly this huge market for sports betting and it relies on and exacerbates toxic masculinity. Now that it's becoming legal in more places than just Vegas or other common gambling places, too many men have become borderline addicted to it. And it doesn't help that iconic cultural influences like Barstool and even fucking ESPN are glorifying and advertising it.
I'm not here to call for regulations or new laws or anything like that. I just think sports betting exemplifies many of the core tenets of toxic masculinity and men need to be more careful and aware of how chronic gambling can affect their behavior, even when it seems as harmless as throwing $5 on a few basketball games.
CMV

What is a teaser? For those unaware, teasers are a special type of bet that most books will allow on basketball and football games. There's multiple games on your teaser ticket sort of like a parlay, but the key difference is that you're moving the line several points in your favor. For example, the Chiefs are favored by 9½ tonight but you might be able to get them at -3½ on your teaser ticket.
How much does a teaser bet pay? It varies by book. There used to be a time when 2-team, 6-point teasers on pro football paid at -110 odds. Unfortunately, it seems like -120 is more common to see these days. (Payouts will also differ based on the number of teams and points, but my focus is on 6-points.)
Are all teasers equal? Certainly not. Notice that many football games end with a final score margin of between 3 and 7 points. For example in the NFL last year, 101 games out of 267 (37.8%) ended with a margin of 3, 4, 5, 6, or 7 points.

Margin	Frequency
0 points	1 game
1	11
2	12
3	27
4	12
5	10
6	20
7	32
8	12
9	1
10	15
11	6
12	2
13	6
14	13
15	4
16	9
17	12
18	11
19	1
20	7
21	8

Teasers that go through these frequent final margins are a better bet.
Blackjack expert Stanford Wong suggested a strategy for playing teasers that said to only play underdogs of +1½, +2, or +2½ points (teased up to +7½, +8, or +8½) and favorites of -7½, -8, or -8½ (teased down to -1½, -2, or -2½). These so-called Wong teasers have had a 100-37 record in the last three years in the NFL.
In comparison, teasers that go through zero (e.g., teasing -3 down to +3) have had a 76-64 record.
Is that good? A 100-37 record is a 73.0% win percentage. If the teasers paid -110, then the threshold required to break even would be 72.4%. At -120, the threshold required to break even is 73.9%. In either case, the percentages are too close to say we've found a definitive pattern.
Can we get better? A hot topic among Wong bettors is whether or not to bet underdogs of +3 points (up to +9). Let's break down the data even further and look at how the bets performed at each spread.

Bet	Record
+1½ → +7½	30-7	81.1%
+2 → +8	19-10	65.5%
+2½ → +8½	10-3	76.9%
+3 → +9	117-38	75.5%
-7½ → -1½	30-8	78.9%
-8 → -2	10-7	58.8%
-8½ → -2½	1-2	33.3%
-9 → -3	18-9	67.7%

In the last three years, it seems like the underdog +3 has been a good bet and that underdogs in general have been pulling their weight better than favorites.
Do totals matter? Another word of advice that some Wong bettors give is to only play games with low totals. The idea certainly makes sense: points are harder to come by in a low-scoring game, so the 6-point tease is worth more. But what does the data say about this in the last three years?

Bet	Record
Underdogs +1½, +2, +2½, +3	176-58	75.2%
Total 49 or under (dog +1½ thru +3)	142-45	75.9%
Total 42 or under (dog +1½ thru +3)	44-14	75.9%

Bet	Record
Favorites -7½, -8, -8½, -9	59-26	69.4%
Total 49 or under (fav -7½ thru -9)	48-19	71.6%
Total 42 or under (fav -7½ thru -9)	16-6	72.7%

Does it matter who is at home? There's some people that tell you not to tease road favorites, but the data hasn't shown that to be good advice in the last three years.

Bet	Record
Underdogs +1½, +2, +2½, +3	176-58	75.2%
Road dogs +1½ thru +3	99-28	78.0%
Home dogs +1½ thru +3	77-30	72.0%

Bet	Record
Favorites -7½, -8, -8½, -9	59-26	69.4%
Road favs -7½ thru -9	17-6	73.9%
Home favs -7½ thru -9	42-20	67.7%

So what does this all mean? Honestly, I'm not sure. Right now, I don't have enough conclusive evidence to say that Wong teasers are indeed a winning strategy in 2020. Besides, all of this seems very data-miney and that makes me uncomfortable.
I'll be using this year to track, in real-time, how these Wong bets are doing. For my tracking this year, I'll be counting underdogs and favorites separately. I won't be paying attention to totals or home/road splits. I'll be including underdog +3 in my tracking, so it probably makes sense to track favorite -9 as well.
What are the Week 1 plays being tracked? I'll be using Bovada's closing number as the determining factor in whether it counts in my tracking or not.
As of the time of this post, the Chiefs are -9½ tonight. If they come down to -9 by kickoff, it counts in my tracking. Otherwise, it doesn't.
As far as Sunday and Monday games go, these are the plays that will be tracked according to the lines as of the time of this post. However, the final list may be slightly different since I'm using the closing number as the determining factor.

• Carolina +3 → +9
• Atlanta +2½ → +8½
• Chicago +3 → +9
• Green Bay +2½ → +8½
• Cincinnati +3 → +9
• LA Rams +3 → +9
• Denver +2½ → +8½
• Baltimore -8 → -2
• Indianapolis -8 → -2

Any INTP knows the odds are against them all the time and that is enough to deter them. But I've always been a gambler. In middle school I got a multigame mini pool table, table tennis, and Roulette wheel and card table. My friends would come over and gamble money or things. My friend's mom disapproved and made him give me some stuff back (haha). I just didn't know I had to rake games to be "the house." In middle school the black kids taught white kids craps and we'd shoot for dollars. I still love a good dice game. We'd have them on payday after close a couple jobs ago. The shit talking is so much better than poker games.
In HS I gambled poker and chess a lot. My favorite poker game was played where everyone had 2.25g of shrooms in them. No poker faces and it didn't last that long. Not great at poker. I've gambled on Chess pretty successfully. Not great at Spades.
But I'm an INTP and Casinos aren't my thing. Rather gamble at pool at a dive bar.
That said I'm doing a lot of sports betting right now. I once read that a professional sports gambler only wins 55% of the time but they have advanced knowledge in props, parlays, hedging etc. I just figured at college and to a lesser extent pro football, I could pick the winner above 55% maybe even against against--the-spread. My favorite former gf was good at betting on the ponies because she was into horses and leased one, so she had similar inside knowledge as someone who's watched football for 25yrs
I put $150 deposit and got $165 because they passed some BTC savings onto me. First week I bet the full $165. I remember the bets too. $45 on Duke (Lost but beat the spread) Same with the $45 I put on S. Alabama. $45 on Coastal Carolina who won outright against Kansas $45. Because the house rakes the games I'd only win about $40 off each so that's $270. But I put a $30 parlay on all three winning and won $180. Turned $165 into $360 (not exact--change and some numbers were rounded). I qualified for a bonus $165 for betting everything. That's a cool $425.
I thought "Holy Shit I can just go pro" beginners luck. It was also right after I lost my job and I'm moving for a new one mid October. Back to my home city and old neighborhood. Pretty psyched really except moving is a hassle.
Two weeks ago lost $70. I thought that comes with the territory of a pro sports better. I broke even last week. This week I chose a new strategy and bet on 7 games instead of 3. Truth was I don't know a certain percentage. I know games I "know" but I only lost $60. It just feels worse because I went 1-6 instead of two weeks ago when I went 1-2. Plus I lose some change on the low probability parlays.
The problem is that I just dipped into my other $165 to bet on pro football. Put in a couple bets and a parlay. The winnings get transferred into my main account. I'm still up either $80 in my account (I can't cash in the "free money")
My floor is $200 because I wanna make at least $50 off this fun lil exercise but I see how addictive it is for the first time. I even sought out a Bitcoin chess gambling site mainly used by Africans but I don't play because either I'm not better at Chess than Nigerian Royalty or they use chess bots or both. It also was pretty obviously used for money laundering which is what the gambling sites are also used for. Now I'm betting on Sunday football. Not just Saturday.
I guess my cashout ceiling is a grand but I don't see that happening haha.
Point is that wk2 college football this year was like my first joint, the first time I mixed valium-codeine-and a belt of scotch at 14. The first time I painted something halfway decent under a bridge at 16. The first time I fucked a girl at 17. The first time I had an audience in stitches at 22 (standup). All very pleasurable and only relatively routinely done. Except maybe sex and drugs but they have other major downsides.
Hell when I learned to read at 8 I was attached to books my whole life but nobody thinks that's bad. Haha.
Do other people gamble?
I'm extraverted enough that if someone has dice on the street I'll shoot or if they have a chess game at a coffee shop. I'll bet $20.
Best in person bet was with a frenemy in my group who was the epitome of iamverysmart and everyone in my group thought he was a genius. I took $20 off him in front of everyone and he refused to try to win it back. Bad look for him.
I hope I can keep it just for fun. Any other INTP gamblers on here?
Edit: Forgot to mention I won $400+ in a $20 pool for the 2011 March Madness B-Ball tourney. I watched none of the regular season (like usual) but knew UConn was good but nobody picked them as they were a #3 seed. I didn't win most rounds either. Dumb luck. It's funny that I forgot because it was less recent than that grudge match against that guy I played chess against.

Growing up I was never into sports or gambling at all. I used to be the type of person to go to the casino and throw 20 dollars on blackjack or throw 20 dollars on slots and look at it as “you’re going to lose this, but you might win something and if you don’t it’s only 20 dollars and you’re done.” The person I became within a very short time was a far cry from that conservative gambler I used to be.
I saw my friends who were very into sports and gambling start to bet on football on FanDuel and DraftKings Sportsbook and they would win money here and there, but I was dead against the idea. That is until the sportsbooks had a promotion for a risk free bet for 500 dollars. It was the Broncos vs Chiefs. Not knowing much about sports at the time, I knew the Chiefs were gonna absolutely crush the struggling Broncos and I took the Chiefs -8.5 at -110 odds. It was a risk free bet so I thought fuck it, I’ll get my money back if it loses. Well, it won. And the dopamine rush of winning that kind of money for just picking a selection had me hooked. It was better than weed, cocaine, alcohol, or any kind of substance I had experienced before.
Pretty soon I ballooned that almost 1000 bucks into 35 grand over the course of a couple months and I was over the moon. I have a good paying job, but I work a lot of hours and it’s very hard physical work. It’s very draining and I viewed sports betting as a way out and into an easier more prosperous lifestyle to break the cycle of my daily misery. But boy was I in for a surprise...
So then COVID-19 hit and I was forced to stop gambling due to there being no sports. I wish I had stopped for good because I would’ve still had that money, but you can’t turn back time as the saying goes. There was a 2-3 month period where I stopped gambling completely and I was really happy. I never had that much money sitting in my bank account before. I could go on any trip I wanted. I bought a sweet new-to-me Audi in cash. I was elated. But when sports came back things started going downhill...fast...
I got into betting Russian table tennis as stupid as it sounds. I laughed at the idea the books started offering it as a bet, but I got into it studying the lines on betsapi and sofascore thinking I could beat the lines like I did in American professional sports. I had what I thought to me was ‘unlimited bankroll’ so I’d bet 100 at a time on each table tennis match (which last no more than 30 minutes vs 2-4 hours for a pro sport). I was hooked. I’d wake up at 7:00am for work and there would be a full slate and I was betting almost every match possible. Sometimes I would make 3 grand in a day. Sometimes I’d be down 2 grand. It was a roller coaster, but this is where my addiction took a turn for the worst.
After getting addicted to table tennis for 2 month, real sports came back. I wanted to get back into the 500 and 1000 dollar parlays I was making, but I didn’t want to throw all that money up at once. So I would do 100 dollar table tennis bets first thing in the morning and try to get to those dollar amounts. This was my downfall. Chasing loss, after loss on what I thought were “sure fire bets” the money started disappearing rapidly. Soon enough I was broke. But that wasn’t good enough. I have good credit so I went and took out a 7000 dollar loan to get back on my feet.
I promised myself I wouldn’t gamble that 7000, but what did I do? Follow the same path I promised myself I wouldn’t go down. I even won a parlay for 13000, another for 7000, one for 8300, and many for 3-4000. I’m writing you today to tell you still have that 7000 debt and not a single dollar to my name. The last 3 paychecks I’ve gotten have all gone to gambling. Every. Single. Dollar. Within 2 days of getting paid. It’s an absolute ruthless addiction that will take everything from you.
How did I stop? I forced myself to cut access from my money. My bank card held all the power to allow myself to drain my accounts to chase money that I’ll never get back so easily. I’ve come to accept I have to work for what I have even though it’s so hard. Gambling is easy. The consequences are hard. I came clean to my dad and he’s taking over my finances for quite some time. I’m fortunate that it’s only 7k in the hole and I’ve stopped the bleeding now, but not a day goes by I don’t think about that 35k in my bank account. My dad told me something that stuck with me and I think it’s the thing that’s gonna keep me away forever
“Son, that money was never yours. No matter how much you win, you’ll give it all back”
Thank you for listening to my story and I wish all of you struggling the best. You’re not alone. You can beat this. You just have to want it.

I keep asking myself how did I get here, but I know exactly how I got to this point. It all started when I was 22, I overheard a couple guys I was playing golf with talking about betting on Arietta and the Cubs. To this point I knew people gambled on sports but I didn’t grow up in that type of home. Occasionally my father would play the squares on a football board or play poker for a few bucks but it wasn’t something I can say I grew up in. That all changed when I started my job at the local country club. If there was a bet for paint to dry these guys would do it. So I watched the Cubs game that night with interest, even though I had no money I watched and they won. I thought wow those guys made money for doing anything. I made my first deposit of $100 onto an offshore account. My first ever bet $20 on the Louisville Clemson Under, and it hit. I was ecstatic, sure it was only $20 but I did nothing to earn that money. This is where my problems started. Over the next few weeks I figured out parlays I hit 3 in two weeks times, for $800 a piece off of a $5 bet. I thought I was rich, I was only 22 so that was a lot of money. Then I discovered the roulette side of things on the online casino. Now this wasn’t my first time with casino gambling. I would take $50 to the local casino and be ok if I lost. My account sat at $2000 in that offshore off of a $50 deposit, and in one day it was all gone off of roulette. I didn’t think much of it I mean it was only $50 lost truthfully. Over the next few years I only would bet on football and basketball I lost some won some but nothing to impact my life. And then it happened. I made another deposit onto an offshore account. Played roulette and was up over $5000 in a week. And within a few hours after I had all these ideas of what I was going to do with the money...it was all gone again. This one stung, I felt like it was just a string of bad luck so I wanted to deposit again and I did that, and guess what lost $200 within the hour. My funds were running low so I went to the worst place you could, a payday company. I couldn’t wait on a normal loan I needed something I could deposit quick and win it back. Well 1 loan turned into 3. Credit cards were all maxed and it was suggested to me that I start to use a local bookie. You don’t need any money to deposit and you get weekly payouts. I thought sure why not. First month I won around $2000. I paid off the loans and some credit cards. My life seemed to be back on track. Then in one weekend I lost my account balance and now owed the local $3000. I came clean to my girlfriend, now wife and she was hurt but helped me. I thought that was it this was the wake up sign. A month later, I was back with a local, I told him I had a problem and to drop my account as it wasn’t I was bad at betting I was just bad at managing money. At least that’s what I told myself. Football starts and first day I owed the local $1500. I called him up asking if he could cancel all bets and I would go into GA, and that this my cost me my upcoming wedding. He agreed and said I needed help. But naturally my friend suggested a new guy, and I was right back to square one. I didn’t lose any money I couldn’t pay small amounts but still never won much. And this continued for another two years up until this last June. I was down $3800 on a Friday; and had no way of paying this. Knowing I couldn’t come clean to my wife or family I felt helpless. I started chasing and got lucky and got below the settle limit for the week. This was a routing for about 2 months. Days and nights spent chasing to get below the settle limit until it happened. I lost $2500 again in a week and didn’t have the means to pay. I have a decent job but so much debt that all my money is gone by the time it comes in. I told my wife I needed the money for a medical bill as I had some work done on my knee, and she helped. So I kept going at it thinking it was just bad luck again. I won $1000 a week ago, and now I lost $1000 in over 6 hours tonight. I’m faced with the decision to chase or not to chase. Telling my wife the truth could very likely end our marriage, but people always say I don’t know where I went wrong. I know where I went wrong, I went wrong from day 1 thinking this is a way to make easy money. Gambling will take everything you have your spouse has and your family has and won’t give anything back. It’s a disease and an addiction that is almost impossible to beat. I have thought the last few years life would be easier for everyone including me without me here. I can’t be that selfish though, I now have two jobs just to get out of debt and work around 80 hours a week. I hope the time at work will keep my mind off gambling. I’ve always personally love the numbers part of gambling and honestly speaking never had an issue I felt when I was making deposits and doing just sports. I have a desire to get back to that with sports betting going legal soon in my state but it’s something I don’t know if I want to be apart of. I want to be done with the bookies, the offshore casinos, and honestly gambling in any way. But I just don’t know where to start.

Thursday Night Recap: Well, I think that game told us everything we need to know about JAX. They are going to be very inconsistent. To play the games they played in week 1 and 2 and then come home and put up a stinker against a bottom team in the league... So, the Jags are now in my list of teams in 2020 that I will bet as dogs, but never as favorites.
We did ok on the evening. +1 Unit and our BBDLS is live going into the UFC fight tomorrow.
Singles (1-1,+2u)
Parlays (0-1, -1u)
Teasers (none)
BBDLS (still alive) Update, Costa got rocked. BBDLS dead!
Weeks 3 is upon us. Lets check out the match-ups! :D
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1PM Games
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LV at NE: Both teams looked pretty great offensively last week. Cam is the only other player I still seem some value on for MVP. The most important thing to me in this game is Coach vs Coach.
Is there more confidence in Gruden and his defense vs Bellichek calling for Cam? OR Bellichek and his defense at home vs Derrick Carr traveling across the country?
This early in the season is the time when its any given Sunday, but on a short week for LV and a full week for NE, don't see NE giving this one up at home very often. The spread is a bit high, but NE looks like a great candidate for a Teaser.
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LAR at Buf: First undefeated matchup of the day. It seems as if the Rams have a better pass rush, but the Bills have the better overall defense. The Rams are traveling East again after flying to Philly last week and back to LA.
Goff looks great this year. He Superbowl slumped last year; having no running game hurt him tremendously. But, this year it seems as if the team is finding an offensive rhythm and giving Goff enough time to spread the ball around.
My Algo is high on LA and says this spread should be LA -2. Since our Algo has LA at a 55% win, win or lose, this is an easy +EV Bet on the Rams. Also another great candidate for a Teaser.
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Hou at Pit: Oh boy, am I excited to see this one! PIT really let me down last week allowing DEN, with a back up QB, to get a back door cover. HOU SHOULD be undervalued as they are 0-2. However, lets remember both of their losses came to the Chiefs and Ravens...
I have this weird feeling this is going to be one of those road dog gets an early lead and the favorite has to battle back to try and last drive win or not. It is extremely hard for 0-2 teams to make the playoffs so I look for all the 0-2 teams to give MAXIMUM POWAH! The Texans are the best 0-2 team IMO.
With a middle of the road total, the Texans not only look like another good candidate for a Teaser but have value on the spread and the ML.
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SF at NYG: What will happen in this game?! NY Giants, Saquan, out. SF, Everyone out. I have gone against SF in both weeks and so far they are 1-1. If there was another week to fade them, I am sure this has to be it. Back to back road game, Missing like 10 key players including the QB and Star TE...
I can't see laying points with SF with those conditions, that leads me to believe there is value on the NY points side. BTW, another 0-2 team. You know they want to compete till the end.
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Ten at Min: I am extremely torn on this one. I think TEN D still has some work to do to become playoff ready. But, the Min D has a ton of work to do just to win a game... I feel like MIN and PHL are on down years but it is sooooo hard for me to bet against Zimmer, especially at home. Depending on game script, this could be Dalvin Cooks wake up game.
​
Was at Cle: This seems like I could give almost the same analysis as the Cincy/CLE game. Cle should put this away but 7 is a big number so be weary of backdoor covers. If CLE wants a shot at the extra wildcard spot this year, they NEED to take care of business this game. Washington on back to back road games and a non-favorable schedule this year. This should be good practice for two teams trending in opposite directions.
CLE is my Favorite pick in the teasers this week.
​
Cin at Phl: Well, well well. The only battle of two 0-2 teams. I have been riding the Eagles suck train for the first two weeks now, and Joe Burrow getting two backdoor covers on his first two starts has me wanting to ride that train again.
The Eagles did look ok for the first half of last weeks game, but after a pick from Wentz, the energy shifted and the Eagles were left behind. Even IF the Eagles can pull it together as a team to get a win, I still like the young Burrow to fight till the end of games.
Might even sprinkle a little ML action on Cincy here...Eagles D still feels like hot trashhhhh
​
Chi at Atl: Our last 0-2 team (that has a chance) Chi has looked...ok. I take it back, Tenn isnt the worst 2-0 team, Chicago is. Without an outlier performance 4th quarter in game one and the Giants losing Saquan in game 2, Chi could theoretically be 0-2. ATL defense is starting off the year like they did last year, by just getting dressed but not really playing. This is looking like another big offensive year for Matt Ryan, followed by some horrible coaching decisions and stupid losses by his defense playing the worst zone defense known to man.
In this game though? I have to side with the 0-2 home favorite. There is a reason they are 0-2 vs a 2-0 team and still giving points. You don't see MIN as a clear favorite and they have a coach that knows what he is doing!
​
NYJ at Ind: I cant write about this game. I very much dislike Rivers and don't like taking him when he has to cover more than a TD. I already gave him his chance in week 1. I think he is full capable of winning a blowout in this game and dominating the news cycle next week, but I just cant take this many points with anyone other than the Chiefs and Ravens
​
4PM Games
​
Car at LAC: All the interesting games to talk about today and then this game is squeaked in there. CMC, gone. Tyrod Taylor, out for another week at least. Herbert...dropping sherbet scoops out to everyone.
Honestly, offensively, CAR didn't look that bad. Teddy looks like young Watson, in that he's chased everywhere but still makes some things happen. LA with a 1st time starting backup QB that didn't know he was playing... had success and honestly Herbert looked a lot like Drew Lock last year. This game has some small potential for an upset and 6.5 for a 2nd time starting QB is....interesting but I think the LA defense is what carries this one to a victory.
​
Det at AZ: This is one of those games that scares me. Every week there is a game with a 6-9 point spread where there is an upset. Outside of the Bengals and Texans, this is that game on my radar this week. But i am already over betting on DET for the year. AZ has started on fire. Is this DET defense that gave up 21 to Trubitsky, IN THE 4TH QUARTER, gonna slow down the red hot cards? I'm not stepping on that train. This game looks to be my stay away game. Lets see how these teams develop before we put too much stock in them.
This is a potentially great game for props though!
​
TB at Den: Still not sure what's going on with either of these two teams. TB looked decent last week, but it was vs CAR... Brady is not yet in rhythm but he's getting decent protection. Denver backdoor covered last week after Lock went down with an injury, being replaced by Jeff Driskle. Jeff had a decent game and screwed all the Steelers spread bettors. I think what's more interesting then a spread in this one would be the Under. With QB changes for Den, Brady not yet in form, and both teams having decent defenses, this game looks primed for some weird 16-10.
​
Dal at Sea: The Titans game and these next two were the hardest for me to judge on such little data. I am obviously very high on SEA this year predicting them to win the NFC and have a great shot at a Superbowl this year. I am conversely not that hot on Dallas. I think the whole NFC East is a work in progress. Dallas is full of offense, but until they can have a healthy season with a top 5 defense, I don't think they can go all the way. This years defensive losses are particularly rough and it's only week 2. Both teams have offenses capable of lighting it up at any time so for that reason I think it will be in both teams interest to keep the other offence off the field. This means sustained drives to eat up as much clock as possible. I also think that Dallas will be awfully full of themselves (warranted or not) from last weeks come from behind win. In a game where I am going to contrarily take the under, I must also take all those points.
​
Sunday Night Football
​
GB at NO: The last game of the day, also very hard one to dissect with little data. It seems as if Rodgers is coming out going for an MVP type season. Brees on the other hand looks...old. My algo has GB +1.5 here and normally I would think Vegas was just shading because NO is a team the public likes to bet on at home. However the public perception is NO lost on primetime as a favorite last week while GB is 2-0 with back to back 40 point offensive performances. And they are still giving GB 3 and in some books 3.5...
This worries me. Vegas is usually more right than wrong and primetime games tend to lean opposite of public perception. I may have to take NO just based on the fact that 70% of the moneyline money is on GB yet they are still a 3 point favorite.
​
I am pretty light on wagers this week. I am currently moving and so I have had a little less time to look over the full cards and props. I do like weeks 3-5 as a sweet spot for underdog value as the markets try to find the right prices for each team.
​
Singles (9-10, -3.15u)

• LAR +2.5 (2u to win 2u)
• HOU +4.5 (1.1u to win 1u)
• Kareem Hunt 19.5 Rec Yards Over (1.15u to win 1u)
• DAL +5.5 (1.1u to win 1u)

Parlays (0-3, -6.5u)

• Israel Adesanya ML, CLE ml, IND ml, NE ml, BAL ml (9u to win 33.87u)
• Kamara 75 Rush yards and TD (Raiders/NO TNF), Cincy +6.5, Ten ml, IND ml, Dal +5.5, BAL ml (3u to win 97u)

Teasers (1-1, +38.85u)

• CLE -1, ATL +3.5, TB PK and U48.5 (6u to win 15.6u)
• NE Pk, CLE PK, LAR +8.5, NYG +10.5, HOU +10.5, CIN +12.5, BAL +3.5 (4u to win 24u)

BBDLS (0-4, -3.4u)

• I have 10 BBDLS in for a total of 9.2u. They are all 10+ team parlays getting greater than 100-1 odds. If I typed them all up it would double the size of this page. These are all most likely losing tickets but if one hits I will post the screenshot.

​
DraftKings $2 Million Pick em National Championship $1Million for First
Week 2 (3-2) Better! Its expected that as I gather more data, these picks should better. Lets keep this train rolling to its resting place for the remainder of the year, :D 5-0 city!
Overall (4-6)
Week 3

• HOU +3.5
• CINCY +5.5
• LAR +1.5
• NYG +3.5
• DAL +4.5

​
Thanks for reading and good luck to all! :D

As a long-time contributor to this sub, I know we love nothing more than discussing our degeneracy. If nothing else, hearing such stories makes you realise there are other people out there who have lived similar experiences to you. Stories of epic failure provide a sense of comfort. Stories of unexpected triumphs provide a feeling of hope.
The following bets - and the circumstances surrounding each - were not necessarily story-worthy. However, there were a number of intricate details which I felt were worth highlighting. Aside from the statistical rollercoaster than one experiences throughout a game (i.e. going from "how can this lose?" to "this bet is over"), there are other factors which can have significant ramifications for one's betting endeavours.
This is where the factor of timing comes into play. How often have you bet on something purely due to the fact that the game was starting shortly? It could either be a straight wager on the game. Or, you might have decided to add the short-priced "lock" to boost your odds. How often has this then come back to bite you? Or conversely, this random event - where your betting urge coincided with the scheduled timing of this event taking place - results in a recuperation of losses from previous games that you "studied" prior to placing your losing wagers?
Without further ado, this is my story. It is but a speck in the ocean that is my entire betting career. But it was a Sunday night full of swings, sweats and... well I won't spoil the ending.
As you read this, I want you to keep the headline in mind. Specifically, the words timing, luck and degeneracy.
It's early on a Sunday evening in Melbourne, Australia. Approximately 6PM to be exact. We are currently under the world's strictest COVID lockdown. We have an 8PM curfew, and I was keen to get in a 1 hour walk before returning home to make dinner. Now typically - as I had already walked my dog several hours earlier - I would not go for another on my own. But for some reason, I just had an urge to get some fresh air. Here is the first element in play: timing. At 6:10PM, an AFL (Australian Football) was scheduled to begin. As I begin my walk, I inevitably flick through my preferred bookmaker's iPhone app and this game catches my eye. Part of me says "don't bet it". The other part of me curb-stomps that voice in my head and says "don't be a pussy". Now on another note, I placed a daily deposit limit of $3000 on my account. To some, that is insanely big. I generally bet $1000 or so, and so this stops me from stupidly chasing the day's losses. Here is where another element peaks it's head: luck. I had deposited $1750 that day. Had I reached my limit, the following events would only have existed in a parallel universe. But as luck would have it, I had $1250 to play with. So I said 'fuck it' and made the deposit. It's about 6:05PM now and I don't have much time. I sift through the markets on offer and decide it's best to play a Same Game Multi (parlaying multiple events from the same game). With not much time left to make a decision, I quickly check the weather forecast in Gold Coast (where this game is taking place) and note that there is meant to be rain in the second half. (Spoiler: there was no rain in the second half). As this sport is played outdoors, this would favour the unders. So I come up with a bet that looks like this:

• First quarter OVER 23.5
• First half OVER 48.5
• Full match UNDER 125.5
• West Coast +34.5 handicap
• Margin: either team by 1-39
• Bontempelli 15+ disposals
• Macrae 20+ disposals

ODDS: 4.10
A bet of $1250 would pay $5125.
​
I was ready to place the bet. The problem? The match was only seconds from beginning.
The time stamp on when the bet was accepted:
18:09:55
I made it by 5 measly seconds.
​
Ok, so game begins rather uneventfully. Now it's worth noting for those who aren't familiar with AFL that you can score by 1's and 6's. It's late in the first quarter and the total is sitting at 22 points. Needing over 23.5, I'm in desperate need of a goal. The whole bet is about to come crashing down without it. With only seconds remaining a player marks the ball from a score-able position. The siren sounds. Now in AFL, if a mark is taken before the siren ("buzzer"), the player may take their kick. As luck would have it, this legend kicks it right through the middle of the goal posts, and the first quarter score ends on 28. We live on!
Second quarter ends, and the combined total is 52 points. Again, we survive the over 48.5 by less than a full goal! (But this one cleared with a handful of minutes left to play, so there was no sweat involved).
I'l wrap up the remainder of the game fairly quickly, as it is rather uneventful. The final score is 47-49, so the total under 125.5 hits easily, the +34.5 and margin 1-39 hit comfortably, and both players rack up well over their required disposals. Fantastic. My account hits $5125.
By this stage, some would be satisfied. I wasn't. I was out for blood.
The smart move would have been to withdraw, say, $4000. Play with the remaining $1125 (house money), and lock in a profit. But what's the fun in that?
I scroll through the upcoming events and see that there is a Chinese Super League (soccer) match starting in a few hours. This isn't the first example of degeneracy in this story, but it's probably the biggest.
So what do I do? Another Same Game Multi of course. And how much do I bet on it? $5125 of course.
The bet:

• Beijing Guoan: win or draw
• Total corners: OVER 7.5
• Total goals: OVER 1.5
• BOTH teams to score in BOTH halves: No

ODDS: 1.95
A bet of $5125 would pay $9993.75
​
Here's where the rollercoaster of events begins.
5 minutes in, we have our first corner.
13 minutes in, we have our second.
Corners are looking good.
Fast forward to half time and Beijing are leading 2-0.

• BOTH teams to score in BOTH halves: No = WINNER
• Total goals: OVER 1.5 = WINNER
• Beijing or draw = TBD, but looking good!
• Corners OVER 7.5 = ONLY 2 FUCKING CORNERS IN THE FIRST HALF!

Remember, they had already accumulated 2 corners 13 minutes into the match. 32 minutes without a single corner!
The live odds for over 7.5 were now over 3.00, and I was losing hope.
The second half begins and approximately 10 minutes passes without a corner. I'm fucked.
The next 15 minutes feels like God (aka Bob from NBA Daily Discussion) had blessed me. A flurry of corners results in an 8th corner before the 70th minute mark!
What looked like a total sweat, turned into the easiest of victories. Or so I thought...
The final leg: Beijing or draw - who by the way, were 1.50 favourites to win the match - were still up 2-0. One book had the opposing team at 81.00 odds to win from here. But you guys can guess what happened next.
Wuhan goal!
I'm still leading 2-1. My brain: "it's all good man, you still have a 1 goal buffer".
Barely a few minutes later...
Wuhan goal!
It's now 2-2. My brain: "it's cool, you just need a draw, you're still likely to win this".
Including the 6 minutes of added time, I have to sit through approximately 20 excruciating minutes of soccer, with just under $10k on the line.
Luckily, Beijing did 75% of the attacking. Wuhan did have a few minor chances, but nothing that made the heart sink.
The referee blew the full-time whistle, and I slowly unclenched my ass cheeks.
I waited to see my account balance, just to make sure all was kosher. (You know, we've all been there, when we thought we bet on a certain team, but because their names are all Chinese, you actually bet on the wrong Beijing or something like that).
My balance appeared at $9,993.75.
It was time to call it a night.
I reflected on the past 6 or so hours that I had just been through, and the 3 things that kept popping up in my mind again were timing, luck and degeneracy.
P.S.
Sorry to all the Djokovic and Heat backers. Brutal. Especially Djokovic. I'd say that's a once-in-a-career circumstance, but I think that would be understating how unlikely it is that the best player in the world get's DQ'd because he inadvertently hit a ball into an official's neck out of frustration.

The Chief
“My father always used to tell us boys, "Treat everybody the way you'd like to be treated. Give them the benefit of the doubt. But never let anyone mistake kindness for weakness." He took the Golden Rule and put a little bit of the North Side in it.” — Art Rooney Jr. on his father
What a man “The Chief” was.. Just a man of the people, no other way to put it. A kind hearted, sports loving, and gambling degenerate we can all relate too.
Before paying the franchise fee of ONLY $2,500 ( I now know without a doubt, the first thing I’m doing with a time traveling machine) The Chief was a boxer in college that qualified for the Olympics. Played minor league baseball and served as the Player-Manager, awhile leading the team in several stat categories. Then, he starts playing Halfback/Manger with two semi-pro football teams in Pittsburgh that he eventually takes over, combines the two teams and named them after himself. Just out there making moves.. This team would later become the pro franchise after only paying $2500... This guy was basically who Jackie Moon had wet dreams about.
Chief Rooney’s Legendary Day at the Track
Just three years after purchasing the team, The Chief hit a parlay at the Saratoga race track of 160,000!!Using an inflation calculator that comes out to 2.9 Mill in 2020! Now there is some dispute about the actual number, some reports was it was close to 250,000. Either way, The Chief loved the ponies and that’s a shit ton of money back then. Obviously, he used those earnings and invested it into his football team and other ventures. Allegedly, The Chief NEVER bet on Steelers games. It was only the ponies, I actually choose to believe that. I think he loved the team to much to risk losing it.
Source -“Rooney`s connection with the operation surfaced during the trial of Paul Hankish, 58, whom the government said started running a bookmaking operation in Bridgeport, Ohio, in 1957.” - “U.S. Attorney William A. Kolibash wrote in a statement released Tuesday that a Hankish associate took out-of-state bets over the telephone ''from a Pittsburgh-based group headed by Art Rooney, who they code-named No. 42.'' - “No. 42'' placed bets with a Mississippi and Texas bookmaker totaling $100,000 a weekend, the statement said. But the statement referred to several No. 42s and it was unclear whether it referred to Rooney.” - “The Hankish associate, Norman Farber, said he met Hankish in 1957 after setting up a small-time horse betting operation. This was the middle man for the horse bets. - “Mr. Farber had a gambling connection with Mr. Rooney not involving football, Mr. Rooney was not betting on Steelers games.''
It wasn’t always sunshine and rainbows for our Chief, the Steelers franchise went through some rough times. Before hiring Noll... One playoff game in 36 years. But, that never broke his love for the organization and players. Chief, would invite the grounds crew to the team box for dinners. This man treated EVERYONE with the same level of respect. It’s easy to see why the Rooney rule exits.
-Howard Cosell on the Rooney’s, “The Rooneys are the finest people, the people I most respect in American sports ownership. I've always felt that way. And there's no reason to change. They are people of integrity and character. The way they put the Steelers together, to hire a man like Chuck Noll, to emphasize the team concept. I have a whole transcendental feeling for the Steelers and the Rooneys and Pittsburgh. — Howard Cosell, October 1982
-Inviting a groundskeeper up to the owner's box for dinner, “I'll never forget the way he introduced me, 'This is Ralph Giampaolo, a member of our organization.' Not a member of our ground crew. Not some rinky-dink bum. But a member of 'our organization'. As far as [Curt] Gowdy knew, I was vice president of the team. Mr. Rooney made me feel 10 feet tall.”
We should all live by the North Side Golden Rule. If Art Rooney isn’t in your top 10 list to have a beer with after this... what are you doing with your life?

Hi all. I’m a 22 year old college student and until recently my father had controlled all of my finances. However recently I have been in charge of my money and it’s staring to get out of hand. I work full time and make about $650 a week while going to school full time. I didn’t pay this semesters tuition yet but I’ve got all my books and everything else I need. Making money isn’t the problem, saving it has been as of late, especially since I’ve been in charge of my own money as opposed to my dad who would have my card and give me money when I asked for it. This morning I had 1k in my checking account and after a day of betting college football I am not at $300 left in the account until my next check in a few days. I’ve always enjoyed betting but it was always $10,$20 or even $30 parlays, with one or two a day and that’s it. Nothing above that, until I got my hands on some money that’s accessible to me 24/7. I lost $700 today and this is something I’ve never done before. If my dad was to ask me how much have I got saved up, I would have to lie to him and tell him that I only have $300 in my account instead of 2-3k that should be there instead, that he expects to be there also because I don’t go out much or spend money anywhere else, and he doesn’t know that I’ve been betting on a much larger scale. A part of me has that “I’m just a 22 year old spending his money how he wishes and enjoying it” mentality but another part of me recognizes that this can develop into a much more significant issue if I don’t take the proper actions to control this nasty habit. I know there’s many out there who’ve been through similar situations. What sort of advice would you guys recommend for someone like me? I’d love to hear it, especially from someone who’s been through it and has gotten back on the right track or is at least making progress towards getting there. Thanks guys god bless you all

I'd call this spoilers all, too, if I could.
In order of what I think is most interesting:
In-Universe Lore Nobody Seems to Have Discussed Much:

1. I think the most important sentence in this entire book is, "Looking back, that was the moment everything started to change." - I think that means this is the end of the Dresden Files following a standard real-world timeline. The supernatural world is outed, now. No matter the results of Battle Grounds. And the rest of the series will be in a world where that is true.
2. 666 years back from 2013'ish times three is getting close to the time of the Crucifixion. I haven't done the math exactly on Harry's birthday, but it seems to imply that The Big J was starborn.
3. Ebenezar got out-sneakied by Dresden. This doesn't seem right.
4. Marcone got out-sneakied by Dresden. This doesn't seem right. This is actually looking to me like he's the one setting Dresden up for a fall, possibly with Justine's aid.
5. Alfred shows emotion. That's pretty weird, and he definitely seems to enjoy his job. He's taken on a fairly dark personality pretty quickly, just showing us what he did in this book.
6. Funny sentence, in retrospect: "Well, clearly this morning wasn't going in anyone's photo album. But it wasn't going to result in a funeral, either. Take your wins where you can get them, I guess," about a morning that resulted in at least one funeral (Astri's)
7. NOBODY seems to have mentioned that Harry needs to out-will Ethniu to put her in the prison. Odin crushed a chair, Mother Winter immobilized him, Ethniu forced Ferrovax to say something. Unless those artifacts boost his willpower, he's not putting her in prison.
8. Odin was Beowulf. He's all over the damn place. If he's so willing to move around, he may have also been the original Cyclops. Which would allow for Ethniu to be............
9. Ethniu is referred to as a Titan, which seems to imply both Celtic sourcing and Greek sourcing. If holding onto immortality is a matter of occasionally changing mantles to satisfy changing religious fads, she's an immensely powerful world-creating deity of some kind. But then, so may be Odin, as the original Cyclops.
10. Power in the Dresden Files universe seems to come from Responsibility and Belief. Various responsibilities are doled out among supernatural entities and belief gathered from mortals seems to allow the entities to influence said mortals. Wizardry seems heavily focused on belief, in the end. Mab's power is sourced in responsibility and belief. This brings up the question of what Ethniu is responsible for, and my guess is Assistance in World Creation, thus tons of power. But the belief is lacking, so I'm curious whether she can actually harm mortals directly very often.
11. Can Harry just put someone in a circle and banish N-fection? Seems like that would be a perfectly easy Starborn thing to do....?

Weird Editing Issues:

1. 'Augh' in a Charlie Brown sense, shows up in the book four times! Harry thinks it, Harry thinks it, Butters says it, Harry says it. Either foreshadowing of Harry taking it out two massive weapons to kick the football (Ethniu) and having it disappear on him, or just a weird recycling of verbiage.
2. Marcone just....... Lets them drive up and blow away his people? What? If the sneakiest, most capable gangster in Chicago even loses his DOORMAN when an enemy he has been fighting for years comes to call asking for 'peace,' I'm disappointed in him. Humans are supposed to be cagey, suspicious jerks and someone drained all the brains out of the bottom of Marcone's head for this book. I EXPECTED three rocket launcher hits to hit that van the second it came up on the curb. The whole scene was out of character, even if he and Lara have an agreement to just let Dresden steal Thomas.
3. The Svartalves know Thomas and beat the hell out of him instead of torturing / questioning him thoroughly. We've never even SEEN Thomas using a bomb (but we have seen it from the Fomor) and they don't really bat an eyelash about that. They just beat the hell out of him. It's.... Weird. Harry doesn't do much investigation, he doesn't parlay his knowledge of investigation with the Svartalves to try and figure out what Thomas has done, he just skips straight to, "Steal him and let the chips fall where they may." As does Lara, which seems even more out of character. If anyone in this book should say, "Hey, Etri, I can't believe my brother would do this without blackmail, he's about to become a father, why don't we let the Inestimable Wizard Dresden dig up the truth and let Thomas alone for a bit," it's her.
4. It's weird Lara and Etri are based in Chicago and Lara needs an introduction to him. Tiny world, two semi-immortal individuals in charge of their own factions, both defending themselves against the Fomor, and she needs an introduction from the most crass clued in mortal around. It makes no sense.
5. "Kung Fu Fighting" shows up in two separate descriptions. That's a little sad, honestly.
6. There is more HAVING sex in this book. Pretty much everyone is more sexually fulfilled except the redhead Valkyrie. Which is a marked difference from the older books AND understandable from my point of view. Dresden and his friends are older, less awkward. That leads to everyone getting what they want more often, in my experience. Dresden's descriptions are actually less horny in this book than the others; not that I've done a full reread.
7. There's a lot of character recycling, but that's inevitable over 16 books and many short stories. The board is mostly set up as far as who the known players are. That makes sense, given that this is supposed to be a fairly small set of secret societies. There is also some plot recycling. The plots and standardizing situations - 3'ish fights with a specific enemy, (see Death Masks) Heist, fight someone on Demonreach, fight someone that should beat you a couple times, etc etc etc.... This stuff all seems mildly glossed over. I've seen several posts complaining about the lack of actual 'Peace Talking' in the book, but Harry does a TON more talking than fighting in this book. He doesn't even tangle with Listen.
8. Harry plonked some diamonds down as weregild to Marcone at the location of his old house.
9. The King doesn't pay fair weregild to Marcone

My personal opinion about the book:
Given that the Wheel of Time books clocked in at an average of 826 pages, this thing should have just gone to press as one book. There were several places that the book seems to have had additional 'connective tissue' added, and that tissue wasn't quite.... I mean, just not so well put together.
The other books often could be seen to make sense with, "Harry's dumb. This is just his point of view," but now that we know the players to have them act impulsively and irrationally like he does is..... Well, disappointing.
I'll never be as good a writer as Jim is, but the grand strategics of this book's place in the series feel like they got in the way of the book being what it could have been. As it is, the three primary characters of the book: Lara, Harry, and Ebenezar all act with completely different personalities from what we have seen in the past.... It's.... I mean, it's still a pretty good book, but it's weird. The cornerhounds fight is good clean action. Ebenezar Vs. Harry is a fun fight. But having characters change so drastically is strange. This can be explained away as Harry having a more textured point of view, but the raw actions of all three characters are so...... Yeah, anyways. Just wanted to say my (extensive) piece.
OH! AND! Backstabbings and Deaths! There may and probably will be MANY!
My death bets:
Ramirez, Rudolph, Wild Bill, at least One Carpenter child, half the Alphas, Sanya, possibly Butters, possibly Marcone, and 100,000+ Chicagoans..... I think Ebenezar will make it, unlike most of you. Martha Liberty may make it, but I'm pretty sure Listens to Wind won't.
Bad guys: Listen, King Crob, 50/50 on Ethinu but my guess is Harry tries to use the Artifacts and whiffs or finds out what happens when it backfires.

!!!!DISCLAIMER:!!!!
Before you even start watching this for entertainment and see if you get offended by this un-P.C. content. Don't be a pussy.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Igsb3ejgbL8
If you can't handle it, leave this thread. If you can, then you may proceed to the next level.
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📰📜Story📜📰:
I've been scatter-brained, ire-filled, soul-searching and lost after a 7-day Degen Marathon that brought a shit load of misfortunes. I used to hate social media, but I've learned how to wield the soc. med. sword like a fucking Degen Jedi. I'm going to promote an honest cause where I seek to be victorious in the end. Just you watch you fucking doubters, haters, blockers, scammers. How much grit and intellect would the average fucking person have to endure what I've gone through in the last fucking 48 hours and still come out alive with a sense of greater purpose?
Had about $400 to $500 in righteously earned bonus dollars earned through impossible grinding degen mission that came pretty close to accomplishing (91%).
I would have had some imaginary >$600 BR by now, but instead the roll-over deadline caused the entire deposit to be forfeited and I manage to salvage some $100.
Due to a bonus rollover scheme, 80U of my balance was stuck in bonuses and if I fail to accomplish the roll-over by the deadline, it all gets forfeited.
With a $500-$600 balance, I could have somewhere at $900-1000 by now after a 20-2 W-L record on European football on Wednesday.
How did I get that record yesterday, by sampling a bunch of solid pre-game picks and live betting using my own fucking brain. I consult with the finest in capping. With $10-$20 bet sizes, That would have put me up maybe $15x16 = +$240 at minimum. $1000 was the imaginary bank roll. As of today, betting with $1 units, after Monday-Wednesday's successful run, while Tuesday was a -$50 blip, I converted $100 to about close to $200 (40U).
🤪🤑Psycho Betting🤑🤪:
I learned the art of psycho betting. Taking some well-advised 10U and 30U psycho bets that put my bankroll up a significant amounts, but a big loss does the opposite. Yesterday I manage to hit 4 grand 30U slams in a row, however many on juiced lines, so each $30 bet one returns about $15-20. Thus my bankroll grew nearly +100 units and sits close to $200 from the initial $100 I manage to salvage after that bonus robbery.
If you want to fucking learn the art of Psycho-Betting to the extremest and be successful at it, fucking put in $100 in Bovada (remember to use money that you can afford to lose) and get that fucking bonus for the purpose of looting the bookies in a successful vengeance scheme. This guy is a fucking Artillery: https://twitter.com/GoTimeCappers.
Fucking hit more than 4x30U grand slams yesterday and some 10-20U cherries on top. I tailed his free picks and other through consultation [Haha fucking reddit/sportsbook will probably ban me for promoting another tout, :)].Of course with my $1.5U size on a crippled bank roll, I cannot grow it to as much as I wanted to using GoTime's techniques. I would have been at another +$400 if I had $6 units. It's a high risk and high reward system, but if you are confident with your picks you go big on it. If you lose it, then you grind back with smaller 10U and 20U bets to try to get back to part to be able to do another 30U bet. The goal is to be like 2-1, 3-0 on 30U grand slams a day. There is some level of sustainability and back up plans to execute in case the 30U bet did not work out. It is very improbable for you to lose 10 in a row on well researched picks that the experts in the community have common agreement on. A lot of the times, the lines shift to reward you less for the pick since big money is already on the pick.
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!!!!!DISCLAIMER: DO NOT READ BEYOND HERE IF YOU HATE MATH OR HAVE AN IQ OF < 89!!!!!
Use the chart on: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IQ_classification
Here is a Nice Calculation to do:
📚📑💻Stats 301 Question in Degenalytics💻📑📚**:**
Lastly I asked anyone in the past few days to do a Stats 301 question with Degenalytics Context: To fucking determine the probability that an avg Joe with a $100+100 Bonus Bank-roll or $500 + 250B bank roll can actually pull off the $3000/$7500 grind in some number of N months betting with supposedly 2 full months of real sports (N-2) getting Obliterated by COVID-19. I want you to give me an analytical calculation or a simulation of your work and give me all the possible scenarios.
Then give the final verdict of if that number converges to 0.000% or 100.00% that the average Joe would succeed his false-hope mission for a successful rollover.
In other words think of it like this: If the average joe bets his entire bank roll 12 or more times (roll-over is not x10 because of bookie juice), what is the probability that he will still end up in the green? Also assign a tilt probability factor that the Average Joe would go on some emotional tilt spree to end up bust again? And make it even harder by eliminating 2-3 full months of real sports (N-2.5) and having to bet on Bovada's limited shitty ass lines and shitty live odds.
If you fucking want to eliminate the -2.5 months, then allow the average joe the freedom to bet on N months of e-sports [hahah] and see where that goes.
I had a bad experience betting on e-sports for 2 months and only end up -15-20U. I'm not saying that I lost because I suck at e-sports betting or I tailed the wrong people. The Bovada lines are super shitty and limited. Most of the time, on live esports, all you see are dashed out lines as if they fucking know what the rigged result is and prevent people from doing hedge bets or try to bet opposite spreads when they are winning to guarantee an insurance 1-1 with minimal damage incurred to their bank-roll. The live betting experience on e-sports on the Bovada platform is so bad that you are guaranteed to lose in the long run. Fucking hell Bodog/Bovada even offered me a $250 deposit on 100% bonus after the Rudy Gobert day in Mid March. They advertised the joys and wonders of getting rich betting off esports.
I was so tempted to deposit, however I kind of over-slept and missed out on the dead-line so they closed the bonus offer. Pretty good relief that I did not fuck-up my real credit card and bank account by falling for that scam again. It was an accidental Grace of God moment to fucking avoid that E-sports deposit marketing scam.
BONUS Questions:
A: Calculate the number of months needed and number of successful bets required for the conservative degen 1u bettor to grind out the roll-over playing
$2.00 tug of war with the bookie.
B: Calculate the odds that a professional capper who knows how to adjust unit sizes (1u-5u), do parlays once a while, will succeed the roll-over in some
N-2.5 months or add some e-sports to have fun to keep the N factor.
C.1: Calculate the conditional probabilities for the bettor succeeding in the mission if on the first few days of betting:
i) He loses bet 1 for about $20.
ii) Wins bet 1 for about $20 to earn $17.5.
iii) Goes on a 3 game losing streak
iv) 5 game losing streak
v) Positivity case: The guy got lucky and nearly doubled his bank roll on a decent run from day. Up +100U or $200. [I'm sure that out of bad discipline the average Joe would still go -200U in the long run with a pretty high probability.]
C.2: Determine the mathematical scheme on how the Bookies can use your first few losses to eventually put you in a 60+:40- (Greater than 60% locked in bonus, less than 40% of your deposited money). Bonus:Locked funds ratio.
The Jinx-King answer: It converges to zero [hahaha], but I really am interested in know what other scenarios math and stats people have come up. And your mathematical approaches and formulae used to generate possible scenarios and probabilities. But I think it is safe to say that for the average Joe,the answer is 0.00% success rate. Bodog/Bovada knows this exactly and refuses to put a hiatus on the roll-over deadline. Instead they keep it going so that people can try to wager on e-sports and lose their entire bank roll. They are only interested it getting 100% of your locked funds so that they can buy expensive cruises, yachts, beach mansions, resort packages, etc in Aruba or some other tropical place. Where you got millions of desperate Americans, Canadians in struggling economies with lost jobs and zero positive cash-flow. About 10% or so or perhaps even more deposit money into off-shore gambling websites hoping they can roll-over their bank-roll some ridiculous number of times and make a few bucks to put food on the table.
In fact, it makes matters worst being jobless, having zero cash flow and having locked funds in scamming bookies. If you are not good at casino or sports-betting games, you would have:
A: Lose your entire deposit for failing to grind it out properly.
B: Not grind it out on time on whatever dead-line the roll-over was.
C: Even if you did successfully grind that shit out using conservative 1u betting and play $2 tug of war with the bookie, you will end up just wasting your time grinding it out for hours and hours on end. It would have been better for you to fucking find a job at some farm helping out with harvesting crops or work in meat plants so that food does not go to waste. I bet you I can make more money than your $2 tug of war in one a day picking off cans and bottles off the streets in some exercise walking/running/biking + collection routine then selling it to the recycling center for $0.05-0.25 a unit. Trust me at my university, I spot maybe about 50-200 empty/partially driven cans and bottles left on desks, lecture halls, the floor, libraries, work areas, etc. Supposed that I harvested that shit, I would be making $5-$20 a day collecting it all and going to the recycling center once every week.
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⚖Conclusions⚖:
The fucking company knows this COVID-19 closure shit and want to use it to their advantage to continue to rob millions of their customers. Last week, I tried to call customer service, chat help, email, etc. and management has spoken to plead my case to delay the roll-over dead-line in a pro-rated time frame so that customers with locked balances can resume betting with their full balance when Game 1 of any Major League Sport actually returns. They give me the same bull-shit over and over saying they decline my request. For what reason?

1. The terms and conditions written in fine print for accepting the bonus conversion challenge. "Rules are Rules."
2. They were aware my deadline of June 22 at 19:23 ET was approaching soon. They knew I was on a mission to salvage my bank roll before they yank out the 60-75U trapped in bonus balances (i.e. Ghost money). By the end of it, I realize I made a foolish mistake. Most of my wins were just from bonus money and I was rewarded $0.00 on righteous wins on expired bonuses.

Therefore Bonus money only earns bonus money which put my entire bank-roll in a 80:20 ratio where the bookies control 80U in ghost money. By the end of the roll-over deadline, they get to yank out 80U of my balance at the deadline and left me with about $100 (20U) bank roll to regrind.

1. They knew I was winning consistently making solid picks.

During my 110 hour marathon over the brutal grind of losing more than 70 hours of work, leisure and recreation; 35 hours of sleep; to a fucking impossible grind of trying to roll over some 60% of $7500 on sports I have little knowledge of capping (i.e. E-sports, Table Tennis, European football) after a few days of studying the game, I was picking up my stride to grind it to 91%. They fucking knew that if I had another day to grind, they would be coughing up +$600-800 of withdrawable balance to my account.
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Bio:😎📚🎓👨‍🎓
I am a Fucking PHD Candidate (2-6 months from graduating and not having to pay another round of BS tuition) who does a shitload of mathematics, statistics, simulations, mathematical physics, wrote scientific papers. I've won T.A. Awards, Government/Provincial/Institutional level scholarships, Conference presentations, with even Undergrad honors back in the day. DM me if you need a fucking CV to prove my fucking credentials.
Why am I able to write a lot of shit? Because my fucking brain operates on some max level Intel Xeon chip on overclock mode and I cannot do much to shut it down other than going to sleep. They only way is to write articles that I think might benefit the community.
I have a crazy interest in sports and Degen'ing. I love to fucking put action on sports games, be proud about making the correct calls on the outcome of games before it happens, and then boast to my circle of competitive friends about who's the fucking Boss. As tabboo as society think us degens are, I think this absolute BS. There is a pure enjoyment in watching sports and having action on it. It is nice to get paid beer money to cover a round for your buddies, or earn that rent money over a successful night of betting on shit you actually enjoy watching. Fuck I rather make $300 for one evening of enjoying sports rather than working a 9-5 dull job to try to afford rent/mortgage. If I can fucking pay off all my monthly expenses in 3 fucking successful nights of 3 hr sessions of sports matches, that would be ideal. I would take the lather over a 9-5 rat-race grind.
Overall I am "PRO" in the debate for local single sports betting bookies to be established in Canada. Get these fucking scamming off-shore books like bodog/Bovada who contribute only contribute "Bagel" to the Canadian Economy, but instead make it worst by scamming the masses of hard working or desperate people to leak out some sum of billions of dollars of national GDP. Probably the same applies to all American States, that people should not have to cough up their hard earned $$$$ to off-shore scamming bookies. I shall write an article about this later to justify my arguments later.
Ultimately I my goal is to obliterate or negate the influence of all the cons, scamming bookies, and false touts out there who are just interested in stealing people's $$$. To write out full studies on exposing their schemes in an objective lens.
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Calling me out: (Think I cannot track these pussy downvotes? I know you cowards 😂😜😎)
If you think I'm full of BS, then send me a personal DM to have a 1v1 argument the same way that Stephen A debates sports with Max Kellerman. You can downvote me or flame me with empty hate talk all you want on public threads. But don't be a fucky pussy by avoiding a debate with me. Trust me, I'm going to win and be the last one to state a real point that you will have no comeback for [haha]. Lastly, if you are open to discuss or debate with me about some issues, do some resarch/exploration, betting strategies, etc., I would love your collaboration in some projects I got going on.
Ultimately, I should help every honest worker strive towards Degen success or if not, just to purely enjoy putting action on sports games. If you are too full of yourself, then you are on your own, I bid thee adieu, and wish you all the best. However you will be absolutely declined to all services and counsel I work to provide to friends for free.
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Social Media📺🎬
Some extra Resource to how I got to this point in my mission.
Here it is for starters:
June 23, 2020: The Impossible Pursuit Reddit/sportsbook/Brag and Bitch (Tuesday)
June 24, 2020: Doubling Bank roll and rewarded Bagel: Reddit/sportsbook/Brag and Bitch (Wednesday)
June 24, 2020: How can you win 5 in a row and lose it all simultaneously? Reddit/sportsbook/What is your most impressive win?
Full Twiiter: https://twitter.com/jinxking0p5
All my media: https://twitter.com/jinxking0p5/media
Discord: ????? To be solved.
Challenges: Got a few right in progress now and a couple of drafts I am working on.
The Jinxking Crusade (In progress): https://twitter.com/jinxking0p5/status/1275516258822131714?s=20
Turns out many people cannot withdraw anything out of Bovada/bodog due to some website glitches. Will try to recover a bankroll to attempt a withdrawal, however I am likely to have the same issues too. They will make some lame excuse to not give me a cheque. Definitely no point of pursuing anything in bovada/bodog if they refuse to give you withdrawables. The goal is to get their website off outta here. As well as get them out of advertisements. They definitely pulled off some "Get the fucking money and run scheme" and you will likely not see your money again. GG
The Jinxking Challenge (In progress): https://twitter.com/jinxking0p5/status/1275661929940467713?s=20
Want to expose a bad tout who over prices the service and has a mediocre record? Tail and fade to call their their BS or mediocre non profiting record out. Also good for finding legitimate winners too. This will be a mission to expose shitty touts on Twitter the way Penn & Teller exposes BS in the market.

An Ode to Upton Bowl VII
It’s the night before kick-off, and all of our bois are about
With utmost confidence in their rosters
No, not one shred out doubt.
All these hopes and aspirations will quickly turn to stress and pain
For all except one, who among us will reign
 
Alex your draft was terrible, no matter which way you boil it
So we expect your team to take after you
and ending up sleeping on the toilet
 
Low in the rankings Dalton, we all consider your team yucky
In spite of a bad draft and mismanagement
We still expect to hear “I was just unlucky!”
 
I expect Jake to get last place again, and when that happens he’ll mourn
But then out of the corner of his eye
Jesus Christ it’s Kendrick Bourne!
 
With his rank Nick was heated, and as always sassy galore
But that’s what will happen
When your team is no ceiling, all floor
 
Trent’s 3 RB stack may be impressive, alongside an extra Mike Evans
but that won’t stop his record from matching his height
Finishing at 5-7
 
It won’t be easy being the rookie Justin, with long nights and days that aren’t sunny
But don’t be quick to give up
Because you already gave us your money
 
Chris your draft was impressive, some may even say it was great
But you’ll keep taking Ls
Because line-ups are locked, and you were 15 minutes late.
 
Marcus has had great success, certainly more than to our likings
But for that he should be proud
He has more championships than the Vikings
 
Cory’s draft went really well, this we all have accepted
But if you make it to the end..
Malcolm Butler! Intercepted!
 
voted #1 by you, and I know it wasn’t to pander
But hell yeah motherfuckers
Signed, your Lord Commander.
 

2020 Upton Bowl Week-0 Power Rankings!

 
10. Alex - Long-Standing Score: 1.63/10 (10th)
 
Legacy: We have a new basement dweller as Alex was ranked far and away the worst player in the league, even behind Justin who has yet to play a single game here. You tend to get the benefit of doubt in this league and Alex’s one Upton Bowl loss doesn’t earn that for him, coming off of two straight Kraken Bowl appearances and one of which he ‘won’. Meaning Alex is out to prove those flukes and that he can at least be an admirable contestant. His roster immediately doesn’t inspire confidence, but maybe Alex sees an angle the rest of us don’t.
 
Self Rank and Reflection: Long-Standing: 8 / Draft Team: 8
“Feel somewhat decent. Aiming for Gronk, missed Kyler Murray and DJ Chark and most RBs”
 
Drafted Team Score: 1.22
High: 2
Low: 1
 
Draft Strategy: There doesn’t seem to be any discernible strategy looking over how the draft went for Alex, and if there was any it went out the window when WR1 Michael Thomas fell all the way to the 10th overall pick. A bargain for sure, but the turn pick of Miles Sanders left us all in shock. While it wasn’t necessarily a huge reach, it still seemed like an odd choice with a bevy of RB options left a la Nick Chubb, Joe Mixon, Austin Ekeler and even CEH. It should be on the record Alex was the only one not in attendance in the group Discord during the draft as he was on a work trip drafting from his phone. Maybe this had something to do with his odd choices, maybe someone called him during his pick. Who really knows? I can appreciate the Odell/Kittle picks next, but the filling out of the rest of his roster was quite strange. Tom Brady in the 5th, not great but not bad… Rob Gronkowski in the 9th and then TJ Hockenson in the 12th after he already had Kittle? Quite questionable, but with the TE premium addition maybe Alex will have some trade value at some point this season. Maybe. Julian Edelman, Devin Singletary, Phillip Rivers make up other questionable picks.
On second thought I think the strategy Alex was going for is clear and the one he usually sticks with. Take his guys, and value when it’s there. He did the first part for sure.
 
Other Statements:
“I'm so sorry Alex”
“Got Mike Thomas I guess”
“I mean, come on I dont want to be mean”
“What a dogshit draft. 3 TEs, are you fucking braindead?”
“Michael Thomas and George Kittle were value!”
“There are none (strengths)”
“The rest of the team sucks! 3TEs!? K lmao”
“I think Tom Brady could do really well on the Bucs? Micheal Thomas.”
“Dawg what are thosssseeee me point at the rest of his team seriously though, Alex what went wrong, your qbs are thin (besides rivers) 3TEs?! wat? (Please prove me wrong maybe you're playing 5D chess idfk) Personally not a fan of OBJ or AJ green this year.”
 
 
9. Dalton - Long-Standing Score: 5.12/10 (6th)
 
Legacy: Dalton will be the first to tell you he’s been the unluckiest player in the league. Is there some merit to that? Sure, but does anyone else care? Dalton has coasted on his UB II win for years to keep him somewhat respected, but after dipping in long-standing rankings for a while he finally made it back to the playoffs this past season. Even with a 4th place finish, Dalton has shown he can be a true player in the right year, but that requires an immense amount of luck to not be the unluckiest. Did that make sense? Either way, Dalton’s all-in-or-out consistency has put him just in the bottom half of legacy standings.
 
Self Rank and Words: Long-Standing: 4 / Drafted Team: 5
“Well, I don't think my team is as bad as others are making it out to be. However, there were certainly better drafts than mine.”
 
Drafted Team Score: 3.56
High: 8
Low: 2
 
Draft Strategy: Mr. Big Balls himself decided to forego preconceived ideas of draft meta and went with something no one else has yet tried. Three years into the SuperFlex rule change and this year brings not only the first time a QB goes in the first round, but two. Crazy enough, Dalton went balls to wall and opted for QBs with his first two picks. Lamar and Russ sure does seem like an insane duo to have one a weekly basis, the challenge then became filling out the rest of his team and that’s where we saw Dalton struggle. While his WRs came together solidly with Thielen / Gallup / Landry, it’s widely considered more difficult to fill your RB corp and starters of Le’Veon Bell and David Johnson don’t inspire. It’ll be interesting to see if Dalton’s QB super duo can lift the rest of his team, or if sketchy RBs and limited WRs hold him back.
 
Other Comments:
(STRENGTHS) “QBs”
(Weaknesses) “everything not his QBs”
“QBs. You gotta love the balls to try to create a new meta, and it very well might work, Lamar and Russ are excellent and should give Dalton at least a chance each week.”
“(Weaknesses).. everything else. Man are his RBs scary and WRs unexciting. There are solid players here by all means, just doesn't look great as a whole.”
“I mean he took Russ, which makes him a Bitch, but also love Russ and hes the strongest player on the team. We will see if Mr. Unlimited is allowed to cook more this year, could really carry the whole party. (Also Lamar I suppose)”
“Dawg what are thosssssssseeee points at all of your RBs”
“Will finish with the best QB duo in the league (probably)”
“Wide receivers are not guaranteed volume, risky running backs that all have questionable situations, and his depth isn’t providing a safety net”
 
 
8. Jake - Long-Standing Score: 9.87 (1st)
 
Legacy: There wasn’t much question here, even going first-to-worst couldn’t dampen the fact that Jake is our only two-time champion. Now, there is some pressure to get back into the playoffs or at least not make the losers bracket again, as we could see a player that’s truly all-or-nothing on a year-to-year basis. But everyone has a down year at some point, Jake is more than likely to be a strong competitor as he’s proven throughout this league’s history, but a less than ideal draft will test Jake’s management ability.
 
Self Rank and Reflection: Long-Standing: 9 / Drafted Team: 3
“Murray, Cook, and Adams should be a fine core to completely rebuild this team around”
 
Drafted Team Score: 3.89
High: 7
Low: 1
 
Draft Strategy: Some strong select awareness as Jake ranked himself pretty much exactly as he was viewed by his peers. As I’ve said before, the benefit of doubt is strong based on how you’ve performed before, so when someone as well respected as Jake is consensus voted bottom three… you know he messed up. Jake also knew he messed up. There is a solid core of good players here and as always, the shaking and moving of trades and FA can easily boost Jake into the playoffs if he gets some help from his sleepers, but his mid-round blunders really did a number on his bench. Dalvin Cook / Davante Adams / Kyler Murray is a nice and balanced core to build around and in these cases it’s a bit nicer to shoot shots wherever to build your team. But a bad joke accidentally turned into Kendrick Bourne in which Trent promptly replied “...who??”. He may be the 49ers WR1, but not a good use of a 7th round pick anyway. This season we’ll see what we get, 1st in the long run Jake, or 8th in best draft Jake.
 
Other comments:
“We can dog on him for the double mess up, but if we ignore that Jake seriously has a well built foundation for his team. He will happily build a home upon it, me thinks”
“Two accidents in the biggest draft of the year comoonnn”
“KYLER!! Also love your WR upside/ depth! RB sitch has potential to be great, but I think the floor is just below where you want it to be (prove me wrong though, i love me some MGIII highlights!)”
“Not the biggest fan of your QB2/3 and your RBs also run thin as mentioned above. Gotta make some moves this year Jake! lets see it!”
“He has a stellar sense of humor and Also I think Kyler Murray could really have a standout year. Gotta keep that eye on Dalvin Cook, and hes got two 1st round picks in Cook and Lockett”
“...It’s Kendrick Bourne BITCH”
“Oh my God it’s Kendrick Bourne!”
 
 
7. Nick - Long-Standing Score: 5.5 (5th)
 
Legacy: The Co-Commish that couldn’t. Fifth may seem a tad low however I think it may be fitting. With so many consistent contenders in the league and the random burst years of others, Nick generally has a strong team to compete. Despite this, it never truly feels like Nick is a real contender. Even with the best record last year it was commonly considered he had the best team and luckiest season of the group. The opposite is true as well, when Nick has a better team in the league he can’t seem to make it over that first playoff round hump. What we have here is a player that can win any week, but can he win when it matters? He sets out to prove his consistency and maybe more going into the 7th year.
 
Self Rank and Words: Long-Standing: 8/ Drafted Team: 7
“I am pretty happy with my team. I think it is still early and a lot can happen between now and the championship. I went for a pretty safe team this year imo but I believe there is some upside, though I think I will need to make some moves during the season to really secure my spot in the playoffs. I was really aiming for Keenan Allen and I am pretty happy that I got him. I also really wanted Hayden Hurst but he was sniped from me unfortunately :( Am I confident?! Ya damn right I am!”
 
Drafted Team Score: 5.77
High: 8
Low: 4
 
Draft Strategy: Nick played it fairly balanced over the beginning of the draft but started out ideally by drafting two starting RBs in Josh Jacobs and Joe Mixon. A start flooceiling duo is a great start and following up with Kenny Golladay, Matt Ryan, and Carson Wentz is really solid as well. I can agree with getting your RBs early and your QBs in the mid-rounds and then getting value at WR, which he did with Keenan Allen. The depth gets pretty questionable pretty quickly, but there aren’t many holes in the starting line-up. What we see here as the problem is a lack of true upside, this is a safe team that should net a solid weekly floor, but there just doesn’t seem to be any of those blow-up week players. Time will tell.
 
Other Comments:
“Pretty balanced team, decent depth, but nothing super exciting”
“Really not high on his draft. It looks like every position he has is just... Super average”
“Good depth. Safe starting lineup, with potential to pop off and be top 10 players imo.”
“Also in line with his strength, I don't really see any breakout star players on this roster. Perhaps a by product of having one of the worse draft positions this year, its hard to draft in the 6-8th position”
“personally I see a lack of upside in most of these guys. Should be reliable floor players, but I don't see any excellent breakout guys at this moment.”
“Love the safety and balance of this team, which is the opposite of what Nick had last year. Really quality players at every position in good situations, and solid depth.”
“Feels like he will retain 0 of his players outside his starting 2 from each position”
“This team seems very average everywhere, which makes me feel like he has a very high floor. In fantasy this can win you alot of weeks, so if one or two players can breakout this could put the team over the hill”
 
 
6. Trent - Long-Standing Score: 4.38 (7th)
 
Legacy: Often considered another football boi in the group, Trent’s history in the WTBB Upton Bowl has been one of underachievement. Usually going into the season he’s seen as someone with a solid team and the football IQ to nurture and develop his squad. Instead Trent is inconsistent in-season as it gets and either never gets it going, or flames out after a hot streak. Only one Upton Bowl appearance and loss that came way back in the inaugural season, Trent’s lack of championship appearance and noise in the postseason leads to a less than ideal impression from the rest of the league.
 
Self Rank and Words: Long-Standing: 6 / Drafted Team: 10
“CEH, kyler got sniped and i'm feeling pretty good!”
 
Drafted Team Score: 5.88
High: 9
Low: 2
 
Draft Strategy: Trent says fuck balance and goes with the THREE RB stack to start his draft. I personally don’t go for the stacks because I’m scared, but I love to see it when Trent and Dalton take the big plays and solidify a position. Derrick Henry, CEH, Aaron Jones is an excellent collection of floor and upside. Mike Evans falling to the 4th was a steal. Trent’s strategy mostly appeared to be one of runs, using 4 of the next 6 picks on WRs, then using rounds 11-14 to pick up an extra pair of QBs and TEs.
 
Other Comments:
“RBs are an incredible mix of upside (CEH) and Floor (Henry) and a guy right in-between (Jones). Evans falling to be his WR1 when he went three first RBs is a great stroke of luck. Great upside WR depth as well”
“Could work on his fly fishing, haven't seen anything good out of him yet this season”
“He owns a farm where he breeds rb1s, but they also have a side business in growing value wide receivers”
“Derrick Henry and Mike Evans, scary scary. Also knows how to blow a mad vape cloud”
“He’s buying second hand tight ends from craigslist”
“RBs for days omg (fuck the packers) but aaron jones at the end of the third wow. Evans fuller ruggs is a nawsty trio if the upside is there. Staffy 5k season? I think yeahhhh boiiiiii, luv it”
“His loyalty :P cmon dawg you really gonna take my TE after I tell you I wanted him smh fawk. For real though I think your QB2 spot is up in the air and even though I like your WRs the WR2 spot is also a question.”
“QB2 and depth, risky TE.”
(Strength) “CEH I guess ?”
(Weakness) “CEH”
 
 
5. Justin - Long-Standing Score: 2.33 (9th)
 
Legacy: well he’s here
 
Self Rank and Words: 10
“”
 
Drafted Team Score: 6
High: 10
Low: 2
 
Draft Strategy: Picking at the late turn is always interesting, picking the leftovers and then starting a run yourself. Justin began his first Upton Bowl draft with the slam dunk of CMC, and went balanced, though differently than the rest.. Going WR (Hill) then TE (Kelce). Doubling up on THE two Chiefs options while also playing into the new TE Premium seemed like excellent value. An almost entirely balanced draft switching between RB and WR between every QB, he opted to go middle-heavy at QB and selected three solid options in the 5th-9th rounds. This was a pretty solid, safe, non boat-rocking draft so it seems to be the matter of management that’ll decide Justin’s success this season.
 
Other Comments:
“Fuck off mason how am I supposed to rank Justin's "long standing" play Come on man- Also Justin has a decently well rounded team too like this is not a bad roster”
“Rock solid, great RB depth, good starting WRs, love the flooceiling mix, but top-heavy team.”
“I think his depth is super weak and will cuck him, I'm also personally not high on Brees, so kindof biased tbh”
“I do think this is the best overall team* with the caveat that everyone on it is able to stay healthy. CMC seems like a powerhouse, but with the type of use he gets it's just a hope that he manages to maintain the same level of play from last year. Breesy is also getting somewhat older and after some injuries last season hopefully he comes back in full force this year. Tyreek and Brown also seem like Boom/Bust options but with huge cielings. Finally you got Kelce down there in a TE premium year. This could be a scary team”
“In relation to his strengths, I think this team also has lots of bust potential. We just have to hope this team doesn't get too busty on Justin though, as that would likely be his least favorite busty area of his life.”
“He’s never actually met Kate Upton”
“CMC duh. Kelce duh. Dobbins and Breida are great sleepers. Tyreek and kelce together could be pre dirty I hope it works out for you! Welcome to the league!”
“No ceiling, we’ve removed the roof from his team”
“Your biggest weakness imo is your QBs and your WR2 option, I have had Woods a few years now and he is the definition of boom or bust (though I like his upside more this year than in the past)”
 
 
4. Chris - Long-Standing Score: 7.63 (3rd)
 
Legacy: Chris has been a bit of an anomaly. Rarely down or out, Chris tends to hover around league average and either power his way into the playoffs or fall just short. An Inaugural Upton Bowl win tends to leave a good impression on most but seven years now removed and without another appearance to his name leaves us wondering if that win was a fluke? Especially considering half the league is different and the rules have changed substantially. Well there is no asterisk next to that win and Chris is generally fielding an above-average squad and is known for his waiver talent acquiring abilities. Stubbornness and so-so drafts usually put him a tad behind, only to be salvaged with FA pickups or trades, so perhaps Chris is a really good draft away from another Upton Bowl appearance. He’s ranked well for now, but a serious playoff run or failure of a season could have him climbing or falling on the rankings.
 
Self Rank and Reflection: Long-Standing: 9 / Drafted Team: 10
“great”
 
Drafted Team Score: 6.33
High: 10
Low: 4
 
Draft Strategy: The shock of the draft came when Chris set a new precedent with the selection of QB Patrick Mahomes with the 5th overall pick. Not only was this new to the league, but a surprising acquisition from Chris himself who never valued the QB position in fantasy or Madden. This pick may show that Chris is working out of his stubbornness and learning from his mistakes. With a QB1 locked up he proceeded to alternate filling out his RB/WR corp landing talents of Nick Chubb, Chris Godwin, Cooper Kupp, Mark Ingram and Tyler Boyd. The wait on grabbing a TE and QB2 withstanding, the rest of the league appreciated the bold tendency breaker and liked his picks at WRB as well as the depth to fill out those positions. Depth may be thin at QB/TE but there’s not much to pick at elsewhere.
 
Other Comments:
“I think that the wombo combo strong QB and WR play is solid. His Backs are also pretty solid and I think this is easily an above average team. He's slated to lose week one but thats only because he's playing what I think is the top team”
“Almost too safe?? QB2/SFLEX will be interesting, and I don't love the upside of most of his core.”
“Chris with the first round QB wtf I love it. way to make a statement bud. You have a very solid floor with nice upside and solid depth especially after you got minshew over tannehill. Good draft my dude”
“Not excited about everyone except Mahomes tbh”
“Love the balance. Shocking the world and going Patty in the first, which goes against everything Chris stands for in football games. But here we are. And matching it with Nick Chubb and Chris Godwin, then filling in with solid #2s. Great WR depth too.”
(Weakness) “None that are super visible”
“Your TEs are looking a bit weak, but besides that I like your team a lot!”
“Except his QB2 where he will now start the yearly Chris QB streaming the 17th best QB from the previous week”
 
 
3. Marcus - Long-Standing Score: 8 (2nd)
 
Legacy: Marcus has made a strong impression in his short time as a member of the league. A decent rookie season was followed by a strong regular season and playoff appearance which parlayed into an Upton Bowl win. The ratio alone says Marcus is here to compete, but keeping up that pace should prove difficult. Nonetheless, winning the previous season will do well for your legacy score and he’s shown that wasn’t a one-time fluke with his performance the previous season. Still fairly young to fantasy Marcus has a bright future as a competitor in this league.
 
Self Rank and Reflection: Longstanding: 8 / Drafted Team: 7
“Well Julio was someone I was aiming for but never dreamed I could grab. Deshaun Watson was taken one pick before I was prepared to insta lock him in”
 
Drafted Team Score: 6.44
High: 9
Low: 3
 
Draft Strategy: That benefit of the doubt has really come in strong here as Marcus continues his streak of high power ranking standings. He is no stranger to targeting RBs early and often, but when Julio fell he had to reroute to Kenyan Drake in the 3rd. The trend of filling in his core continues as Marcus spent his first six rounds on RB/WRs going balanced between the two positions. He then goes for value and upside at the rest of his spots which resulted in Cam Newton and what became Ryan Tannehill. While he went about his process slightly differently Marcus continues the strategy that’s worked well for him so far, streaming QBs and TEs alongside Kickers and Defense and stacking his RB/WRs early. We watch closely to see if this continues to work for him.
 
Other Comments:
“Insane WRs and RBs and depth”
“The rest of his team suffers bc of the care given to the WRBs. A lot lays on Cam Newton, and that's not a bad bet, but you can see how thin he is at QB/TE, and is going to make tough choices at FLEX each week.”
“I think his strength is his depth. Cam Akers and Diontae Johnson are great sleepers. I think the strength of his team is his high upside.”
“I think outside of Zeke and Julio his floor is pretty low. If the upside is not there then his team may fall short. Ultimately a boom or bust team, however, Marcus is no stranger to making moves throughout the season.”
“WRB core as a whole is filled with good floor, good ceiling, and depth.”
“Lack of depth at any one position, and risky QB play. Could work on his kickflip to hit it consistently”
“Weak QBs”
 
 
2. Cory - Long-Standing Score: 3.62 (8th)
 
Legacy: The anti-Jake, coming in with a low legacy score but a high team draft score. The drafting of Tyler Lockett really hasn’t been lived down yet, the meme is gold and Cory hasn’t made a serious run to wash away the taste of that pick. Like Alex, Cory still generally targets ‘his guys’ and for better or (mostly) worse, we haven’t seen that jump in the standings happen quite yet. However, it’s worth noting that Cory has slowly been inching up standings on a yearly basis and has gotten away from the worst in the league status. A playoff appearance or at least a good season may wash the ‘Taco’ designation because Cory has really come into his own in fantasy prowess, but a lack of deep understanding in bench and deeper players usually bites him in the long run and in waivers.
 
Self Rank and Reflection: Longstanding: 6 / Team: 9
 
“Tyler Lockett and Wilson :( may both have breakout years and get 50 points in every week I don't play them.. not to toot my own damn horn but I think this is my best draft yet. Pretty hyped about my RB core and I think snagging Watson in the third was a steal. My WR core is likely the worst of my group, but even then I feel I got a low WR1 and high WR2 which I'm pretty excited about. Also the TE3 and what I feel is a solid flex in Sutton. I'm mainly just banking on Burrow having a breakout rookie year and this team is SET”
 
Drafted Team Score: 6.89
High: 10
Low: 3
 
Draft Strategy: Like a few others Cory filled in the thinner positions first going double RB to start the draft while targeting PPR guys in Alvin Kamara and Austin Ekeler. With the third pick he went slightly bold, going Kamara over Zeke in a move that could pay off or backfire. DeShaun Watson in the third was a great compliment, so filling WRs became the next priority. Cory went for upside here with Amari Cooper and DK Metcalf while adding a solid tertiary floor receiver in Courtland Sutton, but also targeting a TE in Mark Andrews highly playing into the TE premium. This strategy was well perceived by the league, getting the premium positions early and going for upside late, however questions around his SFLEX position arose when he drafted rookie Joe Burrow and didn’t take a backup past him. Plenty of questions about how much consistency at receiver he’ll get, but a solid balanced team nonetheless with a lot of upside.
 
Other comments:
“Upside! I love the PPR ability of his RBs and the depth there, both starters are great flooupside guys. WRs are sketchier but there's good depth and a lot of upside.”
“Mr. Risky Receiver Randy, not a safe one in sight”
“Well rounded team, should be easy to manage”
“I think his bench is weaker than most. It's not terrible, but none are players I think I would have personally opted for”
“Strong high upside high floor RB's, A great QB and some high upside WR's. I really like this team, great draft Cory!”
“His depth... there are some sleepers I like, but ultimately Cory is going to have to make some moves this year if his starting line up is a bust.”
“I really like Cory's starting roster”
“SFLEX. Joe Burrow as his only other QB is interesting, if he breaks out quickly Cory is set, if he doesn't that spot could haunt him if he doesn't find a guy to replace him. Some Floor concerns.”
 
 
1. Mason - Long-Standing Score: 7 (4th)
 
Legacy: The Commish who couldn’t win. It’s one thing to be the commissioner and not win the ‘ship, but it’s another to be a football boi who still can’t. The meme is strong but it’s not from a lack of success, two Upton Bowl appearances and a few more playoffs but just can’t quite close. The respect is still there from the peers, they know I’m generally a contender to at least field a strong team. The highest ranking player without a ‘ship is still just that for now though.
 
Drafted Team Score: 7.44
High: 9
Low: 6
 
Self Rank and Reflection: Long-Standing: 8 / Drafted Team: 10
“Slightly underwhelmed, but pretty good! Was planning on stacking RBs, but didn't get the chance too, but otherwise I came out pretty balanced with my team and I can roll with that. .. Love my balance and depth, floor and upside combos.”
 
Draft Strategy: Stay balanced and you’ll never fall off! That wasn’t the plan going in however, but it was Cory who sniped Austin Ekeler one pick before me. With that snipe came another steal in DeAndre Hopkins who returns to my team for a second year. A Saquon / DHop / Prescott corp provides an okay floor but an incredible weekly ceiling. The surrounding pieces had to be there though, and for the most part it’s agreed the rest filled in quite nicely. TGIII at RB2 is questionable but a strong bench of upside RBs may quell that. Stefon Diggs and especially DJ Chark right behind DHop. Strong K/DST and TE picks help beyond that. Many question the depth because the upfront starters don’t have many holes, but that’s warranted. Upside RBs need to turn into producers and the WRs are thin. A healthy team should be a contender, but who makes it through the season without road bumps?
 
Other Comments:
“Saquon, Dak, Dhop, LOL mason you might win one this year eh?”
“Kind of a sketchy bench imo”
“The QB/WR started give a deadly flooceiling combo”
“1 great RB, WR, QB, and TE. Great depth as always, I would expect nothing less from the guy whose life is football to be able to find a good sleeper or 2. Nevertheless, you get a good score because I really like Saquan, Swift, Dhop, Dak, and TGIII. Good luck friend.”
“RB2, WR2, and QB2 are pretty much boom or bust which makes me a bit worried. However, the depth is there to back it up if it is bust.”
“(strengths) ..His 1s across the board dam”
“Drafting second you get Saquon, which I mean cmon, but I think that Mason took some lower value players in some early rounds which makes me less keen on this team. I feel there were better QB's ahead of Prescott, and that Gurley was definitely a stretch. Time will tell if he can return to his glory days form”
if you actually read the whole thing you're cooler than everyone else btw