For example, I hold AdJd (even AdAc) on a JsTs9h flop. When I get (check-)raised here (especially in live poker against slightly known opponents) I feel that no option is safe at all and I suspect the villains move is highly profitable against my hand.
So please, suggest a reliable beacon in this hazy situation, if any.

The coronavirus pandemic that swept the whole world in 2020 has, in one way or another, affected all betting offices. It seems that we have survived the first wave, but it is completely uncertain what will happen next. Uncertainty is the main catalyst for global crises. But right now, the price of competent analysis and objective assessment of probabilities is increasing. And this is exactly what we are doing here at Bethub.bet
To get more data on the situation among the players, we spoke with our users and asked them a few questions in order to understand how much and to what extent the pandemic has affected their financial situations and preferences in the game.
The first question was not related to bets – it related to the impact of the pandemic on the financial situation of our users: “How has your income changed during the pandemic?”

• Income has not changed – 26%
• Increased slightly – 8%
• Has grown significantly – 4%
• Fell slightly – 20%
• Dropped significantly – 26%
• I lost my job – 16%

​
The next question we asked was, “How has your sports betting spending changed during the pandemic?”

• I bet the same – 23%
• I started spending more – 27%
• I spent less – 29%
• I stopped spending money on bets – 21%

​
To understand how the game itself has changed, we asked users “How have your gambling preferences changed during the pandemic?”

• Bet on leagues from traditional sports that were not canceled due to the pandemic – 56%
• Began to bet on eSports – 30%
• Began playing more in the casino – 11%
• Began playing poker more – 3%

​
One of the most important questions that interested us was, “Did you use credit for gambling during the pandemic, even though you had never used it before?” It’s the use of borrowed funds that is one of the main markers of gambling addiction and one of the biggest negative impacts of gambling on the player.

• Yes – 28%
• No – 72%

​
The indicator seemed to us too high, and we thought that the survey participants might have inattentively read the question and answered only the first part of it. As we were interested in the impact of the pandemic, we decided to reformulate the question and divide it into two simpler ones:

1. Did you use loan funds for betting before the pandemic?

• Yes – 20%
• No – 80%

2. Did you use loan funds for betting during the pandemic?

• Yes – 23%
• No – 77%

All research is here

As a headnote, I’ve been a break-even poker player for over ten years now, so I’d say I know my way around the block.
My story starts at my local $1/$2 cardroom, which is still capped at a max of 6 players per table. That was probably the first sign that something was going to go wrong. In my opinion, you can’t play with 6 people. Blinds go around too fast, and it’s hard to make any hand.
That being said, the room was full of fish as always. I sat down for $600 next to two guys with sunglasses and earbuds. Perfect. Wannabe pros. One orbit in and my slow-played aces already bust some bluff happy fish who bet three streets with his jacks on a ten high board. Easy.
Now to the terrible bad beat hand. I’m sitting at ~$1100 under the gun (I had won a bit more off all the fish by now), which means I’m directly left of the big blind button. I look down and see the 5 of hearts and 6 of hearts. I call, hoping to spike a straight or flush on the flop. Everyone folds to the dealer button, who raises it up to $10. The small blind (some Asian wannabe pro) then three-bets to $40. Now three-bets are very strong, and usually only mean queens, kings, aces, and maybe ace-king. However, he is also a big stack so I figure I can spike the flop and stack him. The big blind folds, I call the $38 more, and the dealer button folds.
Flop comes: 5 of clubs, 8 of hearts, 6 of spades.
Perfect. I give him a stare down as he thinks, and he eventually decides to check. I pretend to think it over, and after a long time announce a bet to $75. He raises to $225, and I call. My plan was to trap the fish, since he seemed to be bluffing every other hand the entire night.
Turn comes: 9 of hearts.
Of course now any 7 makes a straight, which makes it a terrible turn. Straights beat any pair or even two pair, so even a single 7 makes my pair of 5s and 6s useless. However, if the next card is a heart I could also make a flush, which is 5 cards of the same suit. A flush is higher than a straight, so I would then beat any potential 7. He checks, and I check back.
River: 5 of spades.
Bingo. Now I have a full house, which is a pair and a three-of-a-kind. A full house beats a straight and even a flush, so I have the trap laid out perfectly. He checks it over to me again, and I bet $400 trying to make it look like a bluff, and the Asian kid tanks. He then raises me all-in, which is my entire stack since he was in for more than me. I snap call, expecting to win. Instead, he shows two black 8s, for a higher full house.
What a fucking joke that was. I get mad even thinking about it, poker always rewards the fish. First of all, three-bets should only be for queens and higher. Raising with eights is a stupid way to lose money, but of course it works out for him. I immediately rebought for $200 and waited for the Asian kid to three-bet again, wanting to punish him. A few orbits later, I jammed my pocket 4s over his three-bet and he called off with Ace-king. Another moron move. Ace-king doesn’t even make a pair, and he calls off almost $200 with it preflop. Of course he hits an ace on the turn and scoops, like the huge fish he is.
Anyways, that’s my story of how I lost $1,300 on my first night back to a huge fish. I gave him a piece of my mind about how you shouldn’t be three-betting with pocket eights preflop, and that ace-king is a drawing hand that should never call an all-in preflop. Of course he doesn’t listen. I’m going back next week and you’re damn sure I’m going to take back all the money that moron fish stole from me.

Hey everyone, I am a former Wall Street trader and quant researcher. When I was preparing for my own interviews, I have noticed the lack of accurate information and so I will be providing my own perspectives. One common pattern I see is people building their own algorithm by blindly fitting statistical methods such as moving averages onto data.
I have published this elsewhere, but have copy pasted it entirely below for you to read to keep it in the spirit of the sub rules. Edit: Removed link.

What it was like trading on Wall Street

Right out of college, I began my trading career at an electronic hedge fund on Wall Street. Several friends pitched trading to me as being a more disciplined version of wallstreetbets that actually made money. After flopping several initial interviews, I was fortunate to land a job at a top-tier firm of the likes of Jane Street, SIG, Optiver and IMC.
On my first day, I was instantly hooked.
My primary role there was to be a market maker. To explain this, imagine that you are a merchant. Suppose you wanted to purchase a commodity such as an apple. You would need to locate an apple seller and agree on a fair price. Market makers are the middle-men that cuts out this interaction by being always willing to buy or sell at a given price.
In finance lingo, this is called providing liquidity to financial exchanges. At any given moment, you should be confident to liquidate your position for cash. To give a sense of scale, tens of trillions in dollars are processed through these firms every year.
My time trading has been one of the most transformative periods of my life. It not only taught me a lot of technical knowledge, but it also moulded me to be a self-starter, independent thinker, and hard worker. I strongly recommend anyone that loves problem solving to give trading a shot. You do not need a mathematics or finance background to get in.
The trading culture is analogous to professional sports. It is a zero sum game where there is a clear defined winner and loser — you either make or lose money. This means that both your compensation and job security is highly dependent on your performance. For those that are curious, the rough distribution of a trader’s compensation based on performance is a tenth of the annual NBA salary.
There is a mystique about trading in popular media due to the abstraction of complicated quantitative models. I will shed light on some of the fundamental principles rooted in all trading strategies, and how they might apply to you.

Arbitrage

One way traders make money is through an arbitrage or a risk free trade. Suppose you could buy an apple from Sam for $1, and then sell an apple to Megan at $3. A rational person would orchestrate both legs of these trades to gain $2 risk free.
Arbitrages are not only found in financial markets. The popular e-commerce strategy of drop-shipping is a form of arbitrage. Suppose you find a tripod selling on AliExpress at $10. You could list the same tripod on Amazon for $20. If someone buys from you, then you could simply purchase the tripod off AliExpress and take home a neat $10 profit.
The same could be applied to garage sales. If you find a baseball card for $2 that has a last sold price on EBay for $100, you have the potential to make $98. Of course this is not a perfect arbitrage as you face the risk of finding a buyer, but the upside makes this worthwhile.

Positive expected value bets

Another way traders make money is similar to the way a casino stacks the odds in their favour. Imagine you flip a fair coin. If it lands on heads you win $3, and if it lands on tails you lose $1. If you flip the coin only once, you may be unlucky and lose the dollar. However in the long run, you are expected to make a positive profit of $1 per coin flip. This is referred to as a positive expected value bet. Over the span of millions of transactions, you are almost guaranteed to make a profit.
This exact principle is why you should never gamble in casino games such as roulette. These games are all negative expected value bets, which guarantees you to lose money over the long run. Of course there are exceptions to this, such as poker or card counting in black jack.
The next time you walk into a casino, make a mental note to observe the ways it is designed to keep you there for as long as possible. Note the lack of windows and the maze like configurations. Even the free drinks and the cheap accommodation are all a farce to keep you there.

Relative Pricing

Relative pricing is a great strategy to use when there are two products that have clear causal relationships. Let us consider an apple and a carton of apple juice. Suppose there have a causal relationship where the carton is always $9 more expensive than the apple. The apple and the carton is currently trading at $1 and $10 respectively.
If the price of the apple goes up to $2, the price is not immediately reflected on the carton. There will always be a time lag. It is also important to note that there is no way we can determine if the apple is trading at fair value or if its overpriced. So how do we take advantage of this situation?
If we buy the carton for $10 and sell the apple for $2, we have essentially bought the ‘spread’ for $8. The spread is fairly valued at $9 due to the causal relationship, meaning we have made $1. The reason high frequency trading firms focus so much on latency in the nanoseconds is to be the first to scoop up these relative mispricing.
This is the backbone for delta one strategies. Common pairs that are traded against each other includes ETFs and their inverse counterpart, a particular stock against an ETF that contains the stock, or synthetic option structures.

Correlations

Correlations are mutual connections between two things. When they trend in the same direction they are said to have a positive correlation, and the vice versa is true for negative correlations. A popular example of positive correlation is the number of shark attacks with the number of ice-cream sales. It is important to note that shark attacks do not cause ice-cream sales.
Often times there are no intuitive reason for certain correlations, but they still work. The legendary Renaissance Technologies sifted through petabytes of historical data to find profitable signals. For instance, good morning weather in a city tended to predict an upward movement in its stock exchange. One could theoretically buy stock on the opening and sell at noon to make a profit.
One important piece of advice is to disregard any retail trader selling a course to you, claiming that they have a system. These are all scams. At best, these are bottom of the mill signals that are hardly profitable after transaction costs. It is also unlikely that you have the system latency, trading experience or research capabilities to do this on your own. It is possible, but very difficult.

Mean reversions

Another common strategy traders rely on is mean reversion trends. In the options world the primary focus is purchasing volatility when it is cheap compared to historical values, and vice versa. Buying options is essentially synonymous with buying volatility. Of course, it is not as simple as this so don’t go punting your savings on Robinhood using this strategy.
For most people, the most applicable mean reversion trend is interest rates. These tend to fluctuate up and down depending on if the central banks want to stimulate saving or spending. As global interest rates are next to zero or negative, it may be a good idea to lock in this low rate for your mortgages. Again, consult with a financial advisor before you do anything.

Before the pandemic I was a regular poker room patron at MGM National Harbor. They shut down for months but just recently reopened, and more recently opened their poker room back up to the general public.
Now before the pandemic, MGM National Harbor was always packed pretty much 24/7. It’s one of their newer properties and definitely the nicest casino in the DMV area (only other options locally are shitty and older Maryland LIVE and some places in West Virginia you don’t want to go to).
I arrived there last night at 9 PM, which normally would be prime time. Definitely not hoppin’ like it used to be. High roller table games were mostly empty. The slots were operating at maybe 50% max capacity because every other one was turned off to allow distance between the players, but it was very noticeable that even with the reduced number operating most were not being used.
They installed hand washing stations throughout the property around all the games but honestly I barely saw anyone using them which was not good. Face masks are mandatory, but they make you pull down your mask when you enter the casino area and take a picture of your face. All dealers for table games and poker wear plastic face shields. There are plexiglass dividers between dealers and players on most table games, but the side effect of that is definitely less players per table than normal. Spectators are no longer allowed to hang around, you’re only allowed to be at the table if you’re playing. The lack of spectators will have a dampening effect on the enthusiasm of players at certain table games. In fact, the whole energy of the casino was low. Imagine playing craps with no spectators.
Didn’t seem like they could be selling as much alcohol, the lobby and casino bars had earlier closing hours and at 9 PM on a Saturday I was able to walk up to any of the open bars and get a drink immediately, no long lines like the good old days.
The only section of the casino that was more active than usual was the race book which was odd because usually that’s only at half capacity at best when I’ve been in the past.
As for my poker experience, it was interesting. They removed about 25% of the tables they used to have on the floor to allow for distancing, and it’s now maximum 7 players to a table instead of 9. You do the math, they are definitely not making nearly as much off the poker room as they used to be able to. Plus, with 7 players instead of 9 and the lengthy swap out process for players who get knocked out (an attendant has to come and sanitize the seat for you and it took a long time) there were more hands than usual that were played with a reduced rake because there were less than 5 players active.
On top of that, because of the reduced seat capacity the wait list for the 1-3 tables (the most popular) took hella long and people were giving up on the wait and leaving. Also it was very apparent that the higher blind tables were much less in demand, they barely had any waits and that would be unheard of pre-pandemic. That means that the poker players showing up there intend to put less money on the table now.
The poker playing experience is still good if it’s what you like, I was able to enjoy myself despite all the plexiglass alienation. However I don’t know how long they can run this poker room without a COVID-19 case eventually being traced to it, because despite all the effort of distancing and sanitization, they still don’t have a good solution for keeping the chips themselves clean. Unless you neurotically sanitize your hands every time you rake chips, which I guess you could but most people weren’t/won’t, you’re at risk. I played for at least three hours and never saw any type of sanitation of the chips. The only solution I can think for this would be if you had contactless betting where you are separated from your stack, you verbalize your bets and the dealer moves everybody’s chips for them. That would be a big hassle for the dealer and I don’t think players would like it at all but I don’t know how else you could otherwise reduce that risk.
TL;DR - I have no MGM position and don’t intend to open one but I think there’s going to be a rude awakening when ER comes around because people have been piling back into MGM like everything is back to normal. Just because MGM has reopened its properties does not mean it’s anything like it was before. They are operating with many handicaps that will make it literally impossible to achieve anything near pre-pandemic earnings, and this is not going to change any time soon. I also think it’s highly likely they will run into trouble when a COVID-19 case is officially traced to their properties from a gamer that handled chips.

Hi Folks,
Throwaway account here providing the full Article: https://theathletic.com/2115449/2020/10/06/manchester-united-jadon-sancho-transfer-window/ since it's behind a paywall.

United’s hopeless pursuit of Jadon Sancho – the real story
^{Laurie Whitwell, David Ornstein and more} (Other contributor: Raphael Honigstein)
Ole Gunnar Solskjaer identified Jadon Sancho as his principal target this summer in what was seen as a vital opportunity for squad enhancement following Champions League qualification.
But after 10 weeks of opportunity for talks, Sancho remains a Borussia Dortmund player and the simple truth is that United never got close.
The Athletic has been told that Solskjaer urged Ed Woodward to keep trying, and financial concerns meant other signings were pushed to the periphery until the final 48 hours of the window.
Donny van de Beek arrived on September 2 but sources say United waited to pull the trigger on other purchases until it became clear Sancho was not arriving.
So for the third window in a row, United were active on deadline day, completing the signings of Edinson Cavani, Alex Telles, Amad Diallo and Facundo Pellistri. In January, it was Odion Ighalo, hot on the heels of Bruno Fernandes. Last summer, the club were trying to sign Mario Mandzukic or Paulo Dybala.
The cause for this year’s unedifying sense of late freneticism appears to centre on the priority given to the Sancho move and, fundamentally, a misunderstanding by United of Dortmund’s intentions.
Essentially, United did not believe Dortmund would stay firm on the price-tag of €120 million or their deadline of August 10, embarking on a long-running game of poker without realising that the Bundesliga club weren’t even at the table. United effectively sat still in the hope Dortmund would blink first and place the call they were ready to do business. Intermediaries attempted to broker a deal but were waiting on United to move, which did not happen.
Some sources felt Woodward was holding until the last moment to place an all-in bet, giving the impression of resistance in the ambition of driving the price down. But instead, United kept their chips and stayed true to their valuation. By never ruling themselves out of the deal though, United’s actions seriously annoyed Dortmund’s executives, who became even more entrenched in their position as the weeks went on.
When Dortmund sporting director Michael Zorc stood at the side of their training pitches on August 10, the first day of pre-season, and said the decision on Sancho staying was “final”, one alarmed United director made a call to check whether the statement was genuine. The response was along the lines of, “What did you expect? You knew the terms.”
Hans-Joachim Watzke, Dortmund’s chief executive, is said to have personally phoned United at the start of the summer and explained very clearly how much the deal would cost and when it needed to be done by.
United privately argue that the continued conversations after that point, conducted via intermediaries Emeka Obasi and Marco Lichtsteiner, were evidence of Dortmund remaining open to a sale. But the reason for the involvement of agents is hotly disputed.
United insist Dortmund wanted talks done through Obasi and Lichtsteiner, and some believe this was so Dortmund could stick to their public stance while having a backchannel to a potential resolution. United held lengthy discussions and made known what they were willing to pay, which held a firm limit given the current economic environment.
Sources say Dortmund reject that idea and deny they ever appointed agents. Previous deals with Arsenal and Barcelona for Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang and Ousmane Dembele respectively were based on face-to-face meetings with club counterparts.
On this occasion, they believed that they had provided the fee to United and since Woodward failed to match it by August 10, there was no need for further direct discussion.
United felt there was tacit encouragement to keep lines of communication going but the only way they could have got the deal on after that date was with a “crazy” offer along the lines of Neymar’s £200 million transfer to Paris Saint-Germain. Sources told The Athletic that if United had come in with an offer of €140-£150 million then Dortmund might have done business. Conscious of their reputation having set their position out so publicly, Dortmund would have been able to sell that as a turnaround made in extraordinary circumstances.
United argued that the €120 million price tag did not take into account the financial hit caused by the pandemic. Executives genuinely felt it should come down, given the full total of the transfer was potentially enormous. The Athletic has been told initial calculations rose to €250 million including wages and agent fees. United made what has been described as a “calm decision” to refuse that amount and felt vindicated when the government postponed the return of fans to stadiums costing the club another £50 million in lost revenue.
But it is understood that Dortmund originally planned for the €120 million as a “minimum” — and ideally wanted nearer the €147 million fee that Barcelona paid for Dembele — so it was an adjustment to even consider a bid that could reach that figure in installments.
In any case, United never got near to that guaranteed sum. One offer, submitted by chief negotiator Matt Judge through the agents in the final week of September, amounted to £80 million, plus add-ons. Once passed to Watzke, it was immediately rejected as too little too late. There was a sense at the Westfalenstadion that United did not take Dortmund’s demands seriously or were acting without full intentions to actually complete the signing.
All proposals were said to have been relayed to Dortmund via the agents knowing full well they would be turned down.
Sancho himself is believed to have felt undervalued by the offers and even if United had placed the right bid late on, it is understood he would have questioned why it did not come earlier.
Sancho was never going to agitate for a move unless United came close to Dortmund’s demands. Illness kept him out of the squad for Saturday’s 4-0 win over Freiburg but Sancho then attended a house party in London with Tammy Abraham and Ben Chilwell, in breach of lockdown rules, and will join up late with England as a result. He has since apologised.
The forward was prepared to join United but not “desperate” to move this summer. He was relaxed either way. That was the sense drawn by England team-mates at the September camp.
That being said, others close to United were under the impression he “would walk to Old Trafford”. Sancho texted Marcus Rashford about United, and the pair were said to be excited at the prospect of linking up. Sancho has many friends in Manchester from his time at Manchester City.
Other United players were in touch too and so was Solskjaer, who as long ago as January wanted to ascertain Sancho’s willingness to join and to get a personal sense of his character. Having privately acknowledged the possibility of a sale, Dortmund were aware of the conversations, which are standard for most transfers.
There had actually been dialogue with Sancho’s representatives dating back to when he left Manchester City for Dortmund in 2017, but talks commenced in earnest this year once United had secured Champions League football on July 26.
United’s exit from the Europa League was disappointing, but some close to the club felt it would at least reinforce the impetus for signings — a reminder to the Glazer family that funding was required to take the next step. “But extending the window to October 5 is probably the worst thing for Solskjaer,” said a source. “I can see United taking talks to the wire again.”
There were some raised eyebrows at United over reports of Sancho’s lateness to training and fines for breaching lockdown regulations in Germany. But United viewed the indiscretions as attributable to a desire to move on from Dortmund. “We’ll make Carrington a place where he wants to come to work every day,” one member of staff told a colleague.
Solskjaer had determined Sancho would be his main target, with one source saying in April: “We are ready to go, we know who we want, the people at the top are now certain.”
But that conviction was not found in the pursuit, with Dortmund soon frustrated at United’s reluctance to commit to a fee or structure. There were allegations of “freestyling”, a refusal to provide a top line, and when pushed for answers, Judge suggested the issue lay with “the owners”. Agents proposing other players were told of a £50 million net spend budget. Executives feel they have a responsibility to protect the long-term strength of the club by not over-paying.
The Athletic has previously reported how Joel Glazer, in daily contact with Woodward, is involved in all major signings and paid particularly close attention to the Sancho deal. There were accusations of a split in opinion between the pair over the price to be sanctioned, with Woodward advocating a higher fee, but United insist board members were united on their view that €120 million was too much in the post-COVID-19 climate. Recruitment staff were told about a significant budget being allocated to Sancho but later the internal line back from Woodward was that the deal was “too much money”.
Privately United suggested the €120 million figure could be reached including some unrealistic bonuses, which may have allowed Dortmund to save face with a headline figure. Dortmund were resolute in their stance though and believed a higher price could be achieved next summer. The cause for their confidence was revealed when Zorc announced a previously unknown extension to Sancho’s contract, meaning it did not run out until 2023.
United insist they knew all those details and were for a long time frustrated by what they perceived to be the slow process of dealing with Dortmund through Obasi, Sancho’s agent, and Lichtsteiner, the brother of former Arsenal player Stephan. The two intermediaries are described as “very close”. Lichtsteiner previously assisted on the departures of Aubameyang and Dembele to Arsenal and Barcelona respectively, and has vast experience of difficult transfers. He is said to be well-regarded and very discreet with information.
United have in the past worked on deals through agents, and last summer placed an offer for the Newcastle United midfielder Sean Longstaff in this manner. Sources at Newcastle suspected this was so United had deniability if unsuccessful.
On other occasions, the technique has worked well. Woodward conducted the purchase of Juan Mata from Chelsea without one word to his counterparts at Stamford Bridge to block any chance of Wayne Rooney being brought into the conversation. Chelsea wanted to buy Rooney that window.
Before any fee could be finalised this time, there were difficulties over wages and agent fees.
It has been suggested to The Athletic that the opening contract offer to Sancho was actually slightly lower than his Dortmund salary. As is customary in Germany, Sancho’s contract was heavily incentivised and contained bonus payments for each point Dortmund achieved.
Conscious of maintaining a certain wage structure, United’s initial proposal was less than Sancho’s total pay packet at Dortmund. Van de Beek joined on £110,000 a week, for instance, and his representatives were told that was in line with a refined structure given Fernandes signed for £150,000 a week.
A second offer to Sancho, in early August, is said to have achieved parity with his Dortmund deal, with the potential for a fractional increase based on performance. This was not accepted. Sancho’s representatives, who carefully organised a move away from City in 2017, were clear in their view of Sancho’s worth and expected to be recompensed as such.
Though not asking for money equitable to David De Gea, who signed a deal worth more than £375,000 a week within the final 12 months of becoming a free agent, the terms desired were thought to be in the region of Paul Pogba’s £250,000 a week.
There were reports that wages had been sorted in the first week of August but this was not the case. United believed leaks to that end emanating from Germany were an attempt to “put pressure” on the process.
Still, there was positivity about a solution. Sources say the Liverpool manager Jurgen Klopp was keeping himself abreast of Sancho’s situation and around this stage told friends he believed the player would end up at Old Trafford.
There was eventually a breakthrough on Sancho’s salary in the second week of September.
Running parallel were negotiations over agent fees. Some have suggested an initial proposal for a payment to the agents put United on the back foot. After negotiations, a lower sum was agreed. But that still left the transfer fee and, as the gap remained, other options were considered. A prospective loan deal for Gareth Bale was set up but the Wales international declined to wait as a reserve for Sancho. He had the emotional pull of Tottenham Hotspur in any case.
Watford’s Ismaila Sarr, previously not regarded as a genuine option, came into the reckoning in the final fortnight of the window when United explored a loan move. With Watford in the Championship, Sarr has until the domestic deadline of October 16 to join a Premier League club.
Talks also commenced over Dembele. An original inquiry for the Barcelona forward was made in July but at that stage, Dembele was not interested. Sources say Liverpool also made a check back then.
But while Liverpool instead signed Diogo Jota on September 19, it was United returning in the dying embers of the market to investigate whether Dembele might join on loan. It was a late move. A source close to the Barcelona dressing room said at the time: “He intended to stay at Barcelona. In pre-season, his attitude was really different and the players were super happy to see how he was training and how involved in the routine. Therefore, everything has to have changed a lot for him to have decided to go to United.”
In the end, United only wanted a loan. Barcelona demanded a sale, so the situation looked unlikely to develop until a late change of stance by the La Liga club on Monday evening. Barcelona indicated they would agree to a loan but only if Dembele extended his contract at the Nou Camp, and the deal was off.
Industry insiders reported numerous other inquiries and proposals put to the club by representatives, such as Real Madrid’s Luka Jovic, Inter Milan’s Ivan Perisic and Juventus’ Douglas Costa. There was exasperation among some at Carrington that United were leaving business so late again and having to work down their list to second and third options. “Looks like a panic buy,” was the assessment by one source close to the dressing room of the Cavani signing.
United did ask Bayer Leverkusen for Kai Havertz in January but were put off by the €100 million fee and never made a follow-up call this summer, clearing the path to Chelsea.
Meanwhile, the Sancho failure represents the third time Dortmund have got their way over United this year, after the signings of Erling Haaland and Jude Bellingham — two episodes that have caused lingering frustration.
Some agents who have worked with United on other deals believe the club should have halted talks on Sancho much earlier if €120 million was seen as too much and pursued alternatives. There are accusations the delay speaks to a fundamental issue in recruitment, which sources call a paralysis of decision-making. But given how much Solskjaer wanted Sancho, United wanted to try for their No 1 target for as long as possible.
United accept they have missed out on a top player but insist they have not over-extended their finances. The signings of Diallo and Pellistri, both 18-year-old wingers, are regarded as viable options for the first-team once bedded into England through the under-21s side. Diallo’s cost of €21 million plus €20 million is not insignificant, however, inevitably inviting questions about why United refused the extra money for Sancho. Diallo has been scouted since 2016 and is considered one of the most exciting prospects in Italy. There are echoes when Anthony Martial signed for big expense and little experience and became Joel Glazer’s favourite player.
Sancho will stay in the crosshairs, for the next time trading opens. It’s understood he long since shifted his focus to a future transfer rather than moving in the current window. But it is anticipated more clubs will be in the reckoning for his signature by then.

Sooo, I am taking a shot in the sunday mill today and thought it could be funny if I updated this thread with my plays and how it goes. If I bust in the first hour this thread will simply die, if I go far it actually could be fun.
Some information about me: I've been playing regularly for the last 14 months and I am currently up ≈$2600. I started playing at the age of 15 and have had a break from poker since my 20s (I was a student and prioritized other stuff). When I started playing again I thought Super System was still good enough. However, after a few hard hits in the beginning I've learned a lot.
I am close to a calling station, hence I do not like to fold, and probably think I am better than what I really am. I think many pros spot my lack of experience within the first 30 minutes so I get pushed around a lot.
​
I will keep you guys updated with hands and situations
*Updates:
After first break (1hour played): Took a huge hit where I did a mistake on the turn, calling a re-raise, rivering a straight against opponents full house
Update 1hour and 30 minutes played: Huge double up with kings! Currently at 104bb
Update second break (2hours played): Currently comfortable at 77bb. I feel I have more confidence and I feel I have okay card distribution atm. 1 hour left of the late reg!
Third break (end of late reg): I am at 60bb so a steady climb in chips throughout this tourney. Has not been many big hands the last hour. Still mapping new players that comes to the table. Currently top 1.5k of 9.5k players.
Fourth break: Close to the bubble with 5000 players left. 4436 ppl get paid. I have been card dead for an hour. Like for real. But still patient.
BUBBLE! WE are in the money. Only min cash though. $96atm. 8bb left. LETS GO. Double up and charge for the top500
Quick double to 14bb
Fifth break: We are down to 7bb and a long way to go. 2600 players left and five hours in to the tournament. In need of a double up or two
ATM I have doubled two times to 30bb. The last hand was AQs vs. JJ. I river the straight :)))
Break 6! 15bb. We been lucky today :) 1.3k players left. Closing in on the top 500.
FINAL UPDATE. I REACH MY GOAL OF TOP500. However, a bit disappointed I did not make day 2 with only one hour and thirty minutes left. THANK YOU for taking an interest, commenting and upvoting this post! It was actually fun :) Full comment below:
"Okey then! last update :) I stopped the updates as I got more and more tired and just tried to concentrate on making it to day 2. Nothing much to report from the last couple of hours, just some really standardized spots where I am in push/fold territory for long periods of time. I met some guys who had former first and second place in the sunday million, but I only had one reg behind me for most of the time.
I end up reaching my goal of top 500. The payout was $255 which is not a lot given I placed as number in 450ish of 26.715 players. The price pool ended up at 1.3 million (I guess pokerstars did not add 100 for every 50?). I had 1 hour and 30 minutes until day 2.
I had a lot of variance going my way, but, however, I lose my AKo to A8s. See below for analysis - I don't know if he is pot committed (haven't done the math yet, and given the hands I shoved (we played 2-300 hands together), he's stack depth and the position I am shoving from, I think its at best marginal call.
ALSO, I make the sickest call I have ever made. Probably a fold in close to all instances (see below for analysis). However, I do post this as I want to be transparent about this maniac call. My rationalization of the call: I had paid a lot of attention to this player in this tournament. He usually overvalued his pairs, bluffed spots where his range were pretty capped, and he often played as a maniac. Also, I researched his tournament winnings (I did this for all players at my table) and saw that he had very few high cashes and usually played $2-5 tourneys. That is why I put him on a weak pair. On turn I decide to trust my gut feeling and call river no matter what given how many chips I have put in the pot.
The hand I busted:
BB: 17.84 BB, UTG: 17.66 BB, UTG+1: 24.53 BB, MP: 10.93 BB, MP+1: 35.69 BB, Hero (MP+2): 9.79 BB, CO: 15.44 BB, BTN: 12.35 BB, SB: 42.03 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 2.4 BB) Hero has Kc Ah fold, fold, fold, MP+1 raises to 2 BB, Hero raises to 9.69 BB and is all-in, fold, fold, fold, fold, MP+1 calls 7.69 BB
Flop : (21.78 BB, 2 players) 5c Th 9d
Turn : (21.78 BB, 2 players) 7c
River : (21.78 BB, 2 players) Jd
MP+1 shows Ac 8c (Straight, Jack High) (Pre 29%, Flop 20%, Turn 39%)
Hero shows Kc Ah (High Card, Ace) (Pre 71%, Flop 80%, Turn 61%)
​
The hand I played like a maniac:
MP: 54.41 BB, MP+1: 16.8 BB, MP+2: 21.03 BB, CO: 11.08 BB, BTN: 85.82 BB, Hero (SB): 15.87 BB, BB: 15.65 BB, UTG: 32.7 BB, UTG+1: 28.11 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 2.4 BB) Hero has Td Js fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero calls 0.5 BB, BB checks
Flop : (2.9 BB, 2 players) Ah 8d 6c Hero checks, BB bets 1 BB, Hero raises to 2 BB, BB calls 1 BB
Turn : (6.9 BB, 2 players) Th Hero bets 2 BB, BB raises to 5 BB, Hero calls 3 BB
River : (16.9 BB, 2 players) 9s Hero checks, BB bets 7.55 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 7.55 BB
BB shows 2s 4h (High Card, Ace) (Pre 33%, Flop 25%, Turn 0%)
Hero shows Td Js (One Pair, Tens) (Pre 67%, Flop 75%, Turn 100%) Hero wins 32.01 BB"
Note*: I am not promoting the event and I am not paid in any way to do this. Just for fun.

I am new to poker, and am having a hard time finding straightforward answers to some of my (silly) questions.
1) In a casino, do people announce the amount of a bet/raise, or do you have to do the math looking at the amount of chips they put out?
2) Is the value associated with a raise always the total amount of the chips that you have put into the pot during that individual betting round. For example, if you're in the BB playing 1/2, and someone raises to 6, if you were to reraise to 20 you would really only be adding 18 to your original BB of 2, but still announcing a raise to 20? Or do you announce a raise of 18 as this is the extra you're adding to your original value of 2 from the blinds? Basically do you say raise then the total amount or the additional amount on top of the call?
3) Can someone explain the idea of what a min-raise is? If you're playing 1/2, the min-raise that someone could make is 4, right? Because this is double the BB? But then what is the next min-raise that could be made? Is it 8 as this is double the value of the last raise, or 6 as this is the value of the last raise + the min raise amount of 2?
4) What tools can you use to practice doing all this raising/calling math quickly. I watched a little live casino game for the first time last weekend, and was struggling to even comprehend whose turn it was because of how quickly people were moving, much less being able to keep track of the math of how much someone could raise by/how much was needed to call/other stuff like that.
Thanks for the help, any clarification/tips is greatly appreciated!

Gambling has taken it's hold on me and never let go. Not a week has gone by in the last 3 years without a hand of poker, blackjack, sports bet, or day trade. I've been on the cusp of bankruptcy to tripling my savings. My latest swing was an $8,000 football gain after being negative $12,000 in the stock market. I've won and lost upwards to $20,000 and often bet money I couldn't afford to lose.
I somehow managed a level of functioning and bankroll though all this and obtained a Master's degree while keeping a full-time job despite aging 20 years during this unrelenting cycle of anxiety. I finally decided to call it quits and embarked on a journey to Utah to start a career in wilderness therapy so I could leave this addition behind.
Fortunately, Utah does not allow sports betting but of course I decided to place a final stake in Colorado so I could be stimulated during my final leg of the cross-country drive. At first I stuck my ear buds in to listen to the game but it wasn't long before I had my phone in a cup holder during a goal line stand. As I watched Josh Allen QB sneak my way to another $100 victory, I decided it would be a good time to change lanes. I was behind a semi-truck that blocked most of the highway and as I contemplated overtaking it, a car whizzed past making me realize each lane was one-way. If the car was a few seconds late or the play took a few more ticks off the clock, I could of killed somebody.
I've since settled in Utah and it's the most incredible career experience I could ever ask for. I feel purposeful for the first time since the pandemic and I'm on track to be out of debt by 2021. I have not made any bets in Utah and blacklisted myself from all accounts but, I still feel a sense of darkness. I'm deeply disturbed about my decision to risk lives by watching a football game while driving 80 mph down the parkway. It was the most selfish thing I've ever done. I'd rather lose $20,000 again than do something so careless.
I feel like I'm making great progress in eliminating vices, advancing my career, and making positive changes. Everyone is giving me such affirming feedback on how my journey has inspired them but nobody knows the dark side or what I was willing to risk during the trip. I can't shake the feeling and haven't been ok since the event. The variables surrounding the situation keep replaying in my and I'm struggling to move forward. I can barely live with myself.

Hey guys! I'm new here, but for those of you who are bored of the snoozefest of this year's NBA Finals and love a good underdog basketball story, I thought you might be interested. I thought the movie idea was also quite relevant given the amount of anti Asian racism that has been going on this year, especially in NYC.
This is an example of a standard Hollywood pitch I wrote with a professional screenwriter (repped by a major management company) for a production company with a first look deal at a major studio last year. I thought it would be a great resource since these documents are so rarely shared after the fact (even when it's clear the project will never see the light of day).
How this all works was we were given a prompt for a concept, and told to present a take on it.
The prompt was: "Movie about Linsanity (Jeremy Lin) that isn't about Linsanity". So that's a pretty insane prompt but my partner and I found a general concept that was inspired by Angels in the Outfield, without the Angels (and perhaps a little bit of Fever Pitch as well). I typically don't write a lot of saccharine stuff like this, but we really liked what we were able to come up with given the prompt.
For those of you who don't follow basketball, a wiki on Jeremy Lin:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jeremy_Lin
The company found me through a series I had written and starred in (one of the first narrative shows on Facebook Watch) that got a little bit of press:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rqjt-dhhwsE
Press:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-nation/wp/2018/02/15/actor-douglas-kim-won-2-4-million-playing-poker-now-hes-betting-on-himself/
https://www.theverge.com/2017/12/10/16665426/facebook-watch-just-doug-kim-clickbait-asian-american-acting
While we didn't get the job, my screenwriter friend used it as a sample when pitching for other jobs, and it went a LONG way in doing so and crafting his own pitches as well for other jobs. However, while we had the pitch registered under the WGA, we thought it'd be a waste for this pitch to never see the light of day since some of our friends who gave us notes really enjoyed it.
I hope it helps in your own projects though for general pitches, and above all we hope you enjoy what we made!
https://docs.google.com/document/d/1q0zGp0vkHFd4UXhLGIZtBMIzmbr_44O0a4BcKQZefO4/edit?usp=sharing

The Last Precursor is an HFY-exclusive web-serial which focuses on the exploits of the last living human amidst a galaxy of unknown aliens. With his species all but extinct and now only known as the ancient Precursors, how will Admiral José Rodriguez survive in this hostile universe? Make sure to read the earlier chapters first if you missed them!
Do you like the story? Subscribe to HFY bot and get notified when I post new parts!

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Previous Part
Part 001
.......................................
Salt and Pepper zip through the underground catacombs toward the source of the 'bomb' detonation they detected moments before. Due to the pitch-blackness surrounding them, these two Shades move at unbelievable speeds, crossing five miles of total darkness in the blink of an eye. They stop a few hundred feet away from a tremendous pile of collapsed rubble and pause to examine the scene.
The cave roof appears sunken in, as if something had crashed through the entire mountain down to these lower levels, more than half a mile below sea level. Where there should be a hole leading to the surface, the mountain has instead collapsed in on itself, blockading the roof with tens of thousands of tons of solidly packed dirt and stone. A cloud of dust hangs in the air, recently stirred up by whatever strange object forced its way into the underground caverns. The two Shades creep a little closer, their expressions turning to bewilderment. Before them, a giant metal cylinder sits embedded several feet in the ground, with only a couple of feet of its upper portion sticking out of the cave floor. A vibrating noise hums in the air, as if a beast were slumbering within the planet's bowels.
"What the devil is that?" Pepper asks. "Did it fall from the sky?"
"Don't be ridiculous," Salt retorts. "How could anything dig through the mountain so quickly? We would have noticed within seconds! The explosion was nearly instantaneous! I bet that tricky human somehow planted this weird... this weird thing here earlier."
"But... but we watched him the whole time," Pepper says skeptically, her confusion only increasing further. "How could we have missed something that big?"
"Dunno. Master says the fleshbags are tricky. We have to watch out for them. They nearly wiped out our entire species, after all."
"Mmm. True that. Hey, do you hear something?"
Suddenly and without warning, the circular metal object's 'lid' erupts outward, blasting off the cylinder's top. It flies backward, strikes the ceiling, and embeds half a foot into the stone roof, vibrating for a moment afterward.
Then, a gigantic, unthinkably huge metal 'hand' emerges from the canister. Both Shades go on the alert, gazing with wide-eyed fascination, and a tinge of horror, as a metal 'monster' begins to climb out of its metallic embryo.
Salt shrinks back, her eyes wide with shock, as the bipedal machine escapes its containment unit, revealing a shiny, silver body hidden within the darkness. Thanks to her incredible vision and perception, she can easily see every inch of its thick, powerful frame. Two gigantic railgun cannons rest upon the metal monster's shoulders. Its gauntlets appear powerful enough to effortlessly crush stone into dust, while its single glowing-red eye focuses on them, a tiny laser observing their movements. Having never seen such a terrifying giant, Salt can only begin to imagine what sort of terrifying beast must have spawned this behemoth.
"That thing must be six meters tall!" Pepper gasps. "What is it?!"
"M-Master... I think he mentioned these once..." Salt whispers. "It's... it's a human weapon. A killing machine!"
At that moment, one hundred and fifty front-facing lights activate on the robot's body, blasting out tens of thousands of lumens worth of solar energy. The entire cavern system for a mile behind the Shades becomes as bright as if a star had ignited within the underground depths.
"AHHHHHHHH!!!"
"IT BURNS! NOOOOO!!!"
Salt and Pepper scream in horror, their voices echoing into the distance with the volume of a thousand melting witches. Both Shades mindlessly leap backward, their bodies decomposing at terrifying rates. Unable to withstand the horrific bombardment of light upon their shadowy forms, they retreat as fast as possible, but only make it five steps before their bodies explode into smoke. A second later, they reform and fall to the ground, their limbs continuously melting due to the corrosive solar energy ripping them apart at the atomic level.
Thrice, the Shades explode, reform, and fall to the floor.
After the third time, they release high-pitched shrieks, their dying screams mirroring the agony within their souls. Then, they disappear for the rest of eternity, consumed by the all-encompassing light engulfing them.
...
Soren Mudrose, Chief Tactical Officer aboard the Bloodbearer, merely stands and watches for a moment as the Shades perish. Their deaths happen within the span of several seconds, giving her just enough time to witness their fall.
"Do not become complacent, Officer Mudrose," The synthmind, Umi, says. "Due to the imminent threat to the Admiral's life, you have not been able to properly learn to control the Titan-class Battlesuit. For now, I will initiate Automated Assault Mode. Your task is to guide the Battlesuit to the Admiral's location. Leave the combat to me."
"I understand," Soren says, taking a deep breath. "I'm not much for fighting... so I'll go with that. Let's move!"
Like an Olympic swimmer diving into a pool, Soren charges forward, her movement inside the giant, clunky, and seemingly unwieldy Titan-class Battlesuit quickly becoming smoother every second.
Boom-boom-boom!
The ten-ton Battlesuit smashes its feet against the floor as she stomps forward, rapidly increasing her running speed from five miles per hour to more than thirty.
"Officer Soren," Umi says, her computerized voice speaking within the Battlesuit's cockpit. "You must move with haste. The Admiral's vital signs have ceased, but his body has begun to move. I suspect the demonic entities intend to capture him and drag him further into their underground lair. You must bring him back in as little time as possible."
"I understand!" Soren answers. "Don't worry. I will not let the Admiral down!"
Despite running at insane speeds far beyond what her body could ever pull off, compared to the Shades within the world of darkness, Soren's movement is as slow as a turtle's. She travels toward the Admiral's blinking vital signs, which appear as a red dot superimposed over the Titan's holographic imaging interface.
"Seven hundred meters to the Admiral's current location," Umi says. "I am detecting multiple Giant-class demonic entities, as well as several hundred Hunter-class enemies. Threat rating: 0.01."
"Giant-class entities?" Soren repeats. "Like Trolls? The ones I fought in the simulation?"
"Affirmative. However, you have nothing to worry about. Inside a Titan-class Battlesuit, it is all but impossible for biological entities to injure you. Only Duke and Emperor-class demons will pose a threat, and only if they catch you off-guard. Should a Battlesuit utilize Automated Assault Mode, it will only perform with a 5% combat efficiency when compared to the control of a seasoned and veteran pilot. This loss of efficiency is unavoidable, but it will still prove more than adequate for dealing with low-level demonic entities."
...
Not far away, at Admiral Rodriguez's body.
A dozen Shades linger near the fallen Terran, having been told to stay behind with the human, just in case anything happens. All of them grumble and moan, complaining as loudly as possible about their bad luck.
"This stinks!"
"I wanted to watch Master break and train that little hussy. Now I'm stuck here, babysitting a dead man."
"Maybe we should mess with the orcs. That's always good for a laugh!"
"Oh, shut up, Prankster. Only babies like that stuff."
"Nuh-uh!"
"Uh-huh!"
Several of the Shades argue among each other as they trail behind a pair of orcs. The two monsters hold the human by his arms and legs to roughly carry him through the underground catacombs. José hangs limp in their grasp, his entire body unmoving and unable to sense the world around him. Countless nanites swim throughout his bloodstream, their movements slowing more and more every minute due to his unmoving hearts.
Without a doubt, the Terran has perished.
Unfortunately, none of the monsters or Shades recognize this simple fact. They continue traveling deeper into the underground levels, dragging the Terran's corpse along to some awful, distant torture chamber.
As they do, a few of the goblins at the front perk their pointy ears up. They swivel their heads toward a main passage up ahead, where a faint trickle of light begins to slowly expand and brighten that particular exit. In the distance, a sound greets their ears.
Boom, boom, boom, boom.
The sound of something heavy smashing the ground at regular intervals makes them hesitate.
The lead goblin frowns. "What that noise?"
"Dunno," his nearest companion replies. "It sound really angry though!"
One of the Shades flickers toward the front. Her expression darkens. "I can't sense Salt and Pepper! Where did they go? Ah! Don't tell me... don't tell me they died?!"
A second Shade jumps in alarm. "No way! How can that be? Those two are always so cautious!"
Within seconds, the distant light becomes brighter than ever. The unmistakable sounds of titanic footsteps makes all of the Shades turn to one another in a panic. Not knowing what the hell is coming, the duly appointed leader barks an order. "Y-you, orcs! Gobbys! Take the trolls and find out what's making all that noise. Hurry!"
The four remaining thirty-foot-tall trolls stare dully as their miniature companions zip between their legs and follow the head Shade's orders. By the time the Trolls start moving, the light up ahead has become astoundingly bright, while the heavy footsteps grow ever more frightening and oppressive.
All at once, a metal giant rounds the corner, its 150 unthinkably bright headlamps blasting down the corridors. The Shades scream in pain and retreat as quickly as possible, while the charging goblins and orcs screech to a halt and shield their eyes. Despite how the light doesn't injure their bodies like it does the Shades, it's still bright enough to blind them and destroy their retinas.
"Aaargh! Big sun underground! Where come from?!"
The oncoming robotic warrior doesn't slow down. Soren Mudrose charges at full speed like a stampeding bull. She smashes through the frontlines, stomping anyone in her path into patches of bloody mulch, while swinging the Battlesuit's arms from side to side. Each swing shatters spines, crushes skulls, and sends the helpless orcs and goblins flying, their comparatively tiny bodies about as threatening to the Titan-class Battlesuit as a toothpick to a T-Rex.
The Trolls, still lagging behind the orcs and goblins, don't suffer nearly as badly. Perhaps thanks to their tiny pea-brains, they somehow ignore the pain in their eyes to charge at Soren's oncoming form. They raise their fists high and swing down, intending to crush the Battlesuit into spare parts. Given how its size is only 2/3rd's the height of the Trolls, their victory seems inevitable.
However, before the Trolls can land their crushing blows, the two automated railguns mounted atop the Titan's shoulders swivel toward the fleshy giants.
Thoomph! Thoomph!
With two simultaneous shots, a power unlike anything seen in the galactic community for one hundred millions years blasts out of the turrets' barrels. The two nearest Trolls detonate like bombs as two miniature shells rip through their bodies at 5% the speed of light. Their ribs explode backward in horrific showers of gore, splattering their companions behind them. The railgun shell tears into the mountainside and causes a localized earthquake, sending shockwaves in all directions. The deafening concussive blasts blow out the eardrums of the remaining two Trolls, making them stumble in pain while howling soundlessly.
By the time the two remaining Trolls manage to open their eyes, all they see is a stupendously blinding light flying at their faces. Soren raises two fists and smashes the Trolls' skulls, killing them before they have a chance to react.
Within ten seconds of her arrival, Soren murders every monster in the area, leaving lakes of blood and gore in her wake.
"Haah... haaah...." Soren gasps, her adrenaline pumping like crazy. "Did... did I do that?! This suit is incredible!"
"Now is not the time for self-congratulations!" Umi says, her tone authoritative. "The Admiral's body rests only seventy meters from your position. Fetch him as quickly as possible and return to the shuttle."
Soren nods. She starts to walk toward the Admiral's 'blip,' only to pause. "Wait, what about Megla? I have to rescue my sister and the Kessu too!"
"Negative," Umi replies. "Admiral Rodriguez is your top priority. You must bring the last Terran to the Bloodbearer at once. He is the last of his species. If he perishes, there will be no others. However, there are still countless Kraktol and Kessu elsewhere in the galaxy."
Soren continues walking toward the Admiral, but her ecstasy from killing all of the monsters disappears, replaced instead with a mixture of horror and outrage. "How could you say that?! Megla is my sister! I will not leave her behind, synthmind!"
"You will follow my orders," Umi replies. The synthmind's tone becomes noticeably colder than before. "The Admiral's survival is my top priority. The sooner you bring him back-"
"I'll bring the Admiral back as soon as possible!" Soren shouts, fury building in her chest. "But I will also rescue my sister and the Kessu first! Don't you dare try to stop me!"
"Officer Mudrose. Your conduct is unbecoming-"
"Shut up!" Soren shouts, her voice becoming increasingly venomous. She slows to a stop beside the Admiral's unmoving body and grits her teeth. "Not another damned word! If you think I don't know how critical the Admiral's condition is, you've got another thing coming! Now, how can I bring him along with me safely? I'm liable to crush him to death if I'm not careful."
Umi falls silent for several seconds, as if calculating a response. When she does reply, her tone is noticeably more curt than before.
"Before you entered the Titan-class Battlesuit, you also obtained numerous auxiliary attachments. One of those is the Temporary Medical Stasis Device. The TMSD will envelop the Admiral in a protective force-field. Place him inside and it will temporarily preserve his vitals as they are now. However, this effect will only last for thirty minutes."
One of the magnetically attached devices on Soren's Battlesuit glows with a golden hue thanks to her HUD. She grabs the circular object, activates it with a command, and places it on the Admiral's chest. A faint blue film rapidly envelops the Terran's body, sealing him in its protective embrace. Moments later, he levitates into the air, and an invisible 'chain' of energy connects him to the Battlesuit's torso.
"Once again," Umi says, "I must demand that you return to the Bloodbearer at once. The Admiral's life is incomparably valuable. If he perishes, it will mean the extinction of his entire species."
Soren hesitates.
"...You think I don't know that? If I could, I would! No matter what, I'm not going to leave my sister down here! End of discussion."
Soren starts stomping in the direction of Megla and the Kessu, following the general direction of their vital signs. As she does, Umi beeps with disappointment.
"Originally, I calculated that you would be an officer who prioritized logic over petty emotions."
"I never expected myself to act this way either," Soren retorts. "But now that I've made the choice, I'll never regret it. Logic is irrelevant once my family's safety is at stake!"
"...In that regard, I suppose Admiral Rodriguez would commend you. By all accounts, were your roles switched, I am 100% certain he would make the same choice."
Soren snorts. "Good. That's the nicest thing you've said all day."
.......................................
A few miles away, inside the tucked-away Kessu cave.
Megla hovers over little Lele's shoulder, wringing her claws together. "Come on, hurry up! What's taking you so long?"
Lele, still disassembling Megla's rifle into a new device, releases a long meow of annoyance. "Mraaaaw! Every time you ask, you slow me down, scale-face! Just be quiet and let me focus, jeez!"
The yellow-scaled Kraktol flicks her eyes around the room. Already, her eyes seem to be playing tricks on her, as the flickering shadows appear to slowly move around, bit by bit. Like pitch-black lava lamps, dozens of 'shadow globs' slowly float across the ceiling, making Megla feel extremely uneasy.
I swear to the galaxies, it feels like a bunch of creepy monsters are looking at me! Are those the Shades that little furball mentioned? Augh! If this brat is trying to prank me, I'll shave her fur and dunk her in a bath!
Megla listens intently, but no matter how she strains, she doesn't hear the sounds of combat outside. Her nerves tighten more and more every second.
Is the Admiral okay? Maybe he escaped! Yeah. He'll leave and come back with a... with a rescue thingy! Yeah! He wouldn't just leave us here, would he? Oh, gosh, I hope he didn't lose the battle! He has to be okay, he just has to!
"Kyargh! Hurry up, fuzz-brain!" Megla hisses. "I have a terrible feeling something bad is about to happen!"
Hardly have the words left Megla's mouth, before a shudder goes down her spine. She whirls around and screams in a shrill, terror-stricken voice. "Eeeeyaaah!!!"
Behind her, on the wall, a gigantic face comprised entirely of shadow smiles at her, its creepy and sinister expression revealing nothing but delight in her squeamishness.
"Ehehehe!" The face cackles. "Listen to that delightful scream! You seem to be afraid of little old 'us,' you pretty little reptile. What's the matter? Do we scare you?"
The face increases in size, swallowing up the entire sidewall. Megla loses her footing and falls to the ground, panic pulsing through her veins. The Kessu behind her appear to be even worse condition, with all of the children having fainted from terror, and Baaru simply unable to move. The Matriarch's legs tremble and shake, while her knees knock together.
"Sh-shadow monster! Mreeooww!! Hiss!"
All of Baaru's fur stands on end. She hunches down low and raises her claws as if to attack, but it only takes one look at her expression to see she wants nothing more than to flee.
Even Lele's father, Ruuki, barely manages to hold it together. His teeth click together as he trembles and chatters nervously. "Maaoww! I do not like this! No, no, not one bit!"
As the Shade, Yama, indulges in his twisted fear fetish, his expression sours slightly. In between all of the frightened and screaming Kessu and Megla, one creature remains completely impassive to his presence. Little Lele continues to tinker away with her Hypo-spanner, slowly building what looks like a radio antenna with a tripod base. The barrel of Megla's old rifle points straight up in the air, and the whole thing only stands about one and a half feet tall.
Yama frowns. "Hmm. Why is this child not cowering in fear? What a brave little girl! Perhaps she has not yet noticed our majesty and splendor!"
Lele raises her head for a moment. She glances behind herself at the horrifying face on the wall. After staring at it for a moment, she returns to what she was doing, her expression not changing in the slightest. Her reaction appears about as startled or impressed as if a leaf had blown past her face.
The Emperor of Shadows begins to feel annoyed. He doesn't draw any nearer, due to Megla's glowing force-field, but he skirts around the battlefield, his gigantic head continuing to swallow up the walls. "You there! Little girl! Did your parents not teach you to look at your elders when they talked to you?!"
Bzzt, brrt.
Lele continues to quietly work on her little science project. "Sorry, can't. I'm busy right now."
"B-busy?!" Yama sputters. Countless other Shades materialize on the walls around him, their expressions unsightly. "How dare you ignore us?! We have ruled this underground world for countless years! We have tortured and defiled countless females, making them scream in terror before succumbing to our power!"
Rather than intimidating and scaring Lele, the Shade Emperor's words have the opposite effect. She glances at his shadow for a moment and snorts. "Oh, geez. What a dumb, poopy-looking shadow! Look at the big, scary guy, picking on little girls and women. You're just a stupid, weak little bully. You're not scary at all!"
Lele's words make the other Kessu jump in alarm. Ruuki quickly drops down and presses his paw against her mouth. "What are you saying?! This shadow is about to kill us all! Didn't you hear what he did to the other Kessu?! We're in dire straits, sweet child of mine!"
"Hahaha, well spoken!" Yama cackles. "You should be afraid, large male! We are going to tie your females down, violate them endlessly, make them beg for death, and then convert them to our harem! As for the males, we will flay the skin off their bones and feed their blood to our wargs! Your pain has only just begun!!"
Lele rolls her eyes. She pulls her father's paw off her mouth. "You don't scare me. If you were a real man, you'd wait one minute and fifteen seconds for me to finish my Discombobulating Tickle Poker. Too bad you're even more of a scaredy-cat than my daddy."
"What?! You insolent little brat! How dare you insult this Emperor's majesty! Do you think we are afraid of a tiny little baby like you?!"
"I dunno. Are you?"
Even as Lele talks, she continues to screw and weld pieces into place, slowly finishing her assembly of whatever device she happens to be working on. Megla's fear subsides somewhat, and a thought forms in the back of her mind as she notices how the conversation has shifted.
The furball is oddly confident. Could it be? Does she really have some means to hurt or kill these Shades?
A flash of light appears in the Kraktol's eyes. She stands up a little taller and presses her fists against her waist.
"Kyargh! Well said, little furball! Hahaha! How could I be so blind? It's no wonder this shadow-blob taunts us from a distance! He's too scared of us to let you finish your infamous Tickle Poker! Even the weakest males of the Kraktol wouldn't be afraid of a few tiny little cats and women! This so-called 'Emperor' is truly nothing in my eyes!"
Yama hesitates.
The Shadow Emperor glowers at Megla with the rage of a thousand charging bulls.
"Shut your mouth, woman! Soon, we'll have you screaming and begging for mercy!"
"Sure, sure," Megla says, slowly building back her confidence. "I'm not denying you can and you will. But does it matter? If all you can do is bully the weak, then you aren't worth a drop of my spit. My Admiral is a thousand times the man you will ever be!"
At these words, the Shadow Emperor's unsightly expression shifts dramatically. Once again, his confidence comes roaring back, along with a sinister grin. "Hehehe. Your Admiral, hm? Haven't you noticed yet, worthless woman? We have defeated him! He's all but dead now, a meat puppet in our claws! We defeated that fleshbag, and now we have come for you! Tremble and despair, for no matter how you taunt this Emperor, you cannot leave here as anything but our helpless pet!"
Megla's expression sinks. Indeed, Yama's words have the intended effect, making her heartbeat slow to a stop.
"W-what? You... you beat the Admiral?! No! That's not possible! The Admiral... he's invincible! You can't possibly...!"
"Hehehe, we can, and we have! This Emperor crushed the fleshbag with relative ease. He killed a few minor members of our harem, but it matters not! Now that he has fallen, nobody can save you! Nobody!!"
As Yama brags, Lele's paws move with ruthless efficiency. She slides the last bolt into place on her 'Discombobulating Tickle Device' and nods with satisfaction.
"Okay, done! You can die now!"
Without hesitation, Lele jumps to her feet while ignoring the Emperor's cackling. She lifts the odd antenna-shaped device over her head and presses a button on its underside, causing it to vibrate and build up power.
Click, whirrrrrrrr...
Yama stops laughing. The Shade Emperor immediately looks at the device in Lele's hands with confusion. "Hm? Die? Wahaha! Does this silly baby think she can tickle us to death?! This Emperor has heard many jokes in our life, but none have been as funny as this!"
"It's not a tickling device, you dummy," Lele says, her voice cold. "It's a weapon. And you let me build it."
At that moment, a faint ball of light appears atop the antenna.
Fwip!
The light-orb instantly fires upward and slams against the ceiling.
FWEEEEEEEEEEEE!!!
A high-pitched noise erupts underground, like a thousand banshees uttering their dying screams. At the same time, the luminous orb detonates, bathing the cave with an astonishingly bright light, one which mirrors the beginning of creation.
"EEEEYAAAAARGHHHH!!"
Yama, the haughty Emperor of Shadows, screams in agony as the scorching brightness bathes him for 1.34 seconds, irradiating not only him, but all of the Shades present with the lethal cosmic rays. They instantly lose their formlessness, explode into smoke, and reform a moment later as biped-shaped creatures of varying species, landing on the floor to crawl around and scream in pain.
"Aaaargh! You little BITCH!! This Emperor will kill you!!"
Yama screams incoherently, only managing to put his body together after a few more seconds.
Meanwhile, other than the sudden brightness forcing Megla and the Kessu to quickly cover their eyes, they don't suffer any harm at all. The Kraktol quickly swivels to face the enemies around her, looking at them with astonishment.
"What?! Furball, you did this?!"
"Mhm," Lele answers, shrugging nonchalantly. "No biggie. Oh hey, shadow-bully! Here's another."
Click, whirrrrrrrr...
The antenna rapidly builds up energy for another ball of light, making the Shadow Emperor become livid. He recoils in horror and flees to the furthest point in the room, but in his heart of hearts, he knows he cannot hide from that all-encompassing light.
"No, please! Aahhh! Have mercy! The light burns us! We do not like it, not one bit!"
"Too bad!" Lele laughs. "Like my Aunt Lorrie always says... if someone's gonna hurt me or my daddy, I have to hurt them first! Now die, please!"
The orb atop the antenna fires once again. It instantly strikes the roof and detonates into another light-blast of god-like intensity.
"AAAAAHHHHHH!!"
Yama screams once again, along with all the other members of his harem. This time, when the light recedes, two of his Shades explode into smoke and don't reappear. The rest flee the room as quickly as they can, skirting around the edges to avoid Megla's glowing Survival Suit.
Yama joins them in his flight, his last panicked words being, "Y-you'll regret this, little girl! You'll regret this!!"
...
A moment later, the cave falls silent.
Lele glances at Megla.
"Okay! We can leave now. Let's go find Big Baldy!"
Megla sighs.
"Alright. You got me. You're not bad, kid."
"Thanks!"
.......................................
Author Note:
If you enjoy what you've just read, please consider subscribing to my Patreon! I am very poor and presently jobless due to Coronavirus, so every dollar helps. You get access to Cryopod artwork, and plenty of other exclusive posts, with more to come soon.
Also consider reading The Cryopod to Hell, the primary story in the Cryoverse! I'll be returning to TCTH for the next week or two after this TLP part. Both stories are part of the Cryoverse, so they're deeply interlinked. You don't wanna miss them!
Thank you!

So I don’t know much about the game of roulette but I have won around $15,000 in the span of several years over a handful of visit.
Normally I am a 4 car poker person but I came across roulette when leaving the casino and bet on a whim. I bet a single set of 12s with a 200 bet and was thrilled. From there I began thinking about how to safely bet my money in a game of “chance”
What I learned was that I would bet the 1st and 2nd set of 12s(I change it up as I feel necessary) with equal bets. This way, if I win, I win an extra 50% of my initial bet which still beings me positive. At times I would be betting $400 per set. Although I have lost some while doing this, I can’t see another method having better odds than this?
Is this already a known method and if so, what is it? I have won much more than I have lost while playing this method

The title probably isn't as descriptive as it could be. I don't mean "how do you use the game's rules" - I mean, how would you literally use the rule books, as items, that your players could find?
To make a very long story short, my players are about to stumble into an ongoing game of Xorvintall. This has an extremely meta implementation in my homebrew D&D setting, where the "Xorvintaal" started as a simple chess game between dragons and has spiraled into such a convoluted series of inter-linking games (played on boards, with dice, or by manipulating real people and real events, betting on random odds, games of skill, etc) that it puts Cones of Dunshire to shame. Each of these inter-linking games influence each other, such that a Royal Flush in poker would get you extra dice in Yahtzee, and your score there would give a bonus to your point buy for making D&D characters, and how good your character does in D&D-within-D&D would restore lost pawns to your board in the concurrent game of chess, which is important because the chess game... etc.
More to the point, the realm in which this game is being played is composed entirely of books, scrolls, score ledgers, rules references, etc. Specifically, when my players are teleported to the Xorvintaal, they arrive standing on Vade Mecum Monsterus, Third Edition, Revised. Except this version is about 80x110 feet tall, the eye in the middle is alive and angry, and most importantly, the ampersand sword that splits Dungeons and Dragons is an actual sword they can pick up and use.
What kind of magic item would you make out of such an iconic symbol? (the sword with the D&D ampersand) I have vague ideas of trying to design something very meta, like a "Cut Through The Red Tape" ability that allows the owner to ignore one rule of the game. Maybe even be able to confer that benefit upon a different player. I would leave it up to my players' imaginations what they could do, if they got to remove 1 rule of their choice. My players already enjoy a veto-the-GM rule and have been using it in a collaborative way, enhancing my story telling and giving them huge participation I wouldn't otherwise be able to give them.
How would you implement RPG rulebooks, if your players could find them?
My other ideas include, besides stealing the 3.5e Monster Manual sword (these ideas are D&D specific):

1. Getting a copy of the Player's Handbook gives the players unique insight to all of the "careers" and possible "skills and specialties" of adventurers. This would confer a bonus to the party's use of hirelings, retainers, armies, running their own guild, or any other situation where the party wants to make as effective and efficient a use of NPCs as possible. The PHB, in world, is a manual with all the collected expertise of generations of Xorvintaal players, a veritable Art of War that the party can consult. My players have aspirations of building an adventurer's guild, and the closely guarded secret of a trans-dimensional (if 2 editions outdated;) set of instructions would translate to the meteoric rise of their guild's success. After all, they know exactly who to hire, for what, and for how much.
2. The Dungeon Master's Guide would be similar, except it would be a bonus to the party's fortifications, traps, and non-intelligent employees (monsters). The 3.5e DMG prominently features a large globe; perhaps instead it is a mystic manual that would allow its owner to scry and cast powerful divinations. But the information may be faulty, outdated, generic/generalized, or about a completely different campaign.

This is going to be a long post. My life story almost. It all started in 2010 when I was introduced to poker. Yada yada yada, I got hooked.
Naturally a tight passive player, I was able to stretch each $20 deposit a long way.
I slowly started adding aggression. Betting with flush draws, etc.
Ran it up to around 3k.
Booked a flight to LA to go visit my cousin but it was really just an excuse to go to commerce casino (my first live experience).
Didn't know about their $40 buy in structure. Lost 3k in 1 week.
quit playing for a while.
black friday happens.
Dream is offically dead.
Oh wait, what are these off shore sites. Bodog? sportsbookpoker? intertops? cake? wtf. lets check them out.
Ran good on intertops. Turned $20 into 4.3k in 1 week by running like Usain.
Played against a guy named ivysaurus for my entire roll at 25/50 headsup.
Lost.
Called it quits again.
got a job at a restaurant.
worked there for 2 years.
saved up 10k.
moved to vegas in 2016.
played live 1/2.
played too loose.
Lost about 2k the first month.
Switched over to playing 1/3 at bellagio.
better results started happening.
wpt diamond is starting.
Cameras all over the place in bellagio.
poker tables all full.
The sportsbook is filled with tables now.
My roll is at 16k.
I try to get into a 1/3 game. Waitlist too deep.
2/5, same story.
Theres an open seat at a 5/10 game.
eh why not, im running good lately.
I sit down. Called down 2 streets 2nd pair.
My heart is racing. Villain checks river. I check back. I win.
$300 profit in 1 hand.
New villain sits down at table.
Hes a tv guy that plays 25/50 on poker night in america. I forget his name. Arabic or armenian lookin dude with curly hair.
He wild.
Hes splashing cuz hes just trying to pass the time until he gets into the bigger games.
I win 2k off him in like 30 minutes. He gives me the death look and mutters some curse words. Floor comes over, tells this man his seat is open. He gets up. Floorman picks up his chips for him cuz he a bitch.
Game seems to be too tough now. Actually its the same game, but Im sitting on a 4k stack. I get nervous and cash out.
my bankroll at like 19k now. Highest point of my life.
Fell in love with a hooker. Down 3k.
bankroll 16k.
Refocus.
Go to aria to play some 1/3.
Crush it.
Lots of noise at a plo table in the corner near the bathroom.
I get on the waitlist for that game.
Im addicted to plo now.
Ran good at first. Won like 5k my first week playing 1/3/5 plo.
Then my ev started leveling out. I was never a winner at plo.
Lost the 5k right back and then some.
dont worry, losing 5-7k in a week isnt that bad.
or is it?
damnit it was.
This was the moment I should have gone back to 1/3 nl.
but nope. Plo more fun.
kept playing. learning on the fly. didnt do that bad looking back on it, but it was still bad.
my bankroll was down to 14k at one point and I remember feeling so defeated.
I might as well have had $100 to my name, cuz thats what it felt like. I do not know why. Mental issues.
It was all down hill from here.
the chase begins...
fill in the blanks
you know how this story ends.

1. PokerStars - $0.10 NL - Holdem - 8 players

BTN (BTN): 137.2 BB SB (SB): 116.8 BB BB (BB): 98.5 BB UTG (UTG): 34.5 BB UTG+1 (UTG+1): 68 BB Hero (MP): 119.7 BB MP+1 (MP+1): 138.4 BB CO (CO): 134.6 BB
SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB
Dealt to Hero: Qc Ac
fold, UTG+1 calls 1 BB, Hero raises to 4 BB, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, UTG+1 calls 3 BB
Flop (9.5 BB, 2 players): 2s Kc 3c UTG+1 bets 1 BB, Hero raises to 4.5 BB, UTG+1 raises to 23 BB, Hero raises to 115.7 BB and is all-in, UTG+1 calls 41 BB and is all-in
Turn (137.5 BB, 2 players): Kd
River (137.5 BB, 2 players): 10h
UTG+1 shows: Qs Kh (Three of a Kind, Kings) (Pre 24%, Flop 53%, Turn 82%)
Hero shows: Qc Ac (One Pair, Kings) (Pre 76%, Flop 47%, Turn 18%)
UTG+1 wins 131.3 BB
2. PokerStars - $0.10 NL - Holdem - 9 players
UTG (UTG): 99 BB UTG+1 (UTG+1): 103.1 BB MP (MP): 106.9 BB MP+1 (MP+1): 110.6 BB MP+2 (MP+2): 66.8 BB CO (CO): 100 BB Hero (BTN): 179.2 BB SB (SB): 80.5 BB BB (BB): 100 BB
SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB, CO posts penalty blind 1 BB
Dealt to Hero: Qc Qd
fold, fold, fold, fold, MP+2 raises to 3 BB, fold, Hero raises to 9 BB, fold, fold, MP+2 calls 6 BB
Flop (20.5 BB, 2 players): 10c 8h 7d MP+2 checks, Hero bets 12 BB, MP+2 raises to 24 BB, Hero raises to 42 BB, MP+2 raises to 57.8 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 15.8 BB
Turn (136.1 BB, 2 players): 3h
River (136.1 BB, 2 players): 8c
MP+2 shows: Jd 9d (Straight, Jack High) (Pre 17%, Flop 96%, Turn 100%)
Hero shows: Qc Qd (Two Pair, Queens and Eights) (Pre 83%, Flop 4%, Turn 0%) MP+2 cashed out 123.9 BB for a fee of 1.3 BB
3. PokerStars - $0.10 NL - Holdem - 8 players
SB (SB): 157.5 BB BB (BB): 74.1 BB UTG (UTG): 123.8 BB Hero (UTG+1): 91.1 BB MP (MP): 140.7 BB MP+1 (MP+1): 118.5 BB CO (CO): 152.2 BB BTN (BTN): 112 BB
SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB
Dealt to Hero: Qd Kd
fold, Hero raises to 3 BB, MP calls 3 BB, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold
Flop (7.5 BB, 2 players): 9s Ad 7d Hero bets 4 BB, MP raises to 8 BB, Hero raises to 16 BB, MP raises to 137.7 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 72.1 BB and is all-in
Turn (183.7 BB, 2 players): 9h
River (183.7 BB, 2 players): 4s
Hero shows: Qd Kd (One Pair, Nines) (Pre 30%, Flop 37%, Turn 18%)
MP shows: Ac Ks (Two Pair, Aces and Nines) (Pre 70%, Flop 63%, Turn 82%)
MP wins 175.4 BB
​
4. PokerStars - $0.10 NL - Holdem - 8 players
BTN (BTN): 100 BB SB (SB): 122.6 BB BB (BB): 108.8 BB Hero (UTG): 119.5 BB UTG+1 (UTG+1): 140.8 BB MP (MP): 79.5 BB MP+1 (MP+1): 229.6 BB CO (CO): 137.6 BB
SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB
Dealt to Hero: Ks Kd
Hero raises to 3 BB, fold, fold, MP+1 calls 3 BB, CO calls 3 BB, fold, fold, fold
Flop (10.5 BB, 3 players): 8d Jd 2d Hero bets 5.5 BB, fold, CO calls 5.5 BB
Turn (21.5 BB, 2 players): Kh Hero bets 15.5 BB, CO calls 15.5 BB
River (52.5 BB, 2 players): 5h Hero bets 22.5 BB, CO raises to 56 BB, Hero calls 33.5 BB
CO shows:
Ad 6d (Flush, Ace High) (Pre 32%, Flop 97%, Turn 77%)
Hero mucks: Ks Kd (Three of a Kind, Kings) (Pre 68%, Flop 3%, Turn 23%)
CO wins 157.1 BB
​
I just started playing nl10 and I noticed something very strange. I open raise from EP or MP and one of the blinds call, first thing they do is bet and when there's a flush draw they bet pot a lot of times and I don't know what to do against it. When I played nl2 and nl5 I've never seen people betting pot right away on flush/straight draw boards. How to play against that? How do I even put anyone on a hand in that situation? Especially when I have AK or AQ for example and I have air.