Hey everyone, I am a former Wall Street trader and quant researcher. When I was preparing for my own interviews, I have noticed the lack of accurate information and so I will be providing my own perspectives. One common pattern I see is people building their own algorithm by blindly fitting statistical methods such as moving averages onto data.
I have published this elsewhere, but have copy pasted it entirely below for you to read to keep it in the spirit of the sub rules. Edit: Removed link.

What it was like trading on Wall Street

Right out of college, I began my trading career at an electronic hedge fund on Wall Street. Several friends pitched trading to me as being a more disciplined version of wallstreetbets that actually made money. After flopping several initial interviews, I was fortunate to land a job at a top-tier firm of the likes of Jane Street, SIG, Optiver and IMC.
On my first day, I was instantly hooked.
My primary role there was to be a market maker. To explain this, imagine that you are a merchant. Suppose you wanted to purchase a commodity such as an apple. You would need to locate an apple seller and agree on a fair price. Market makers are the middle-men that cuts out this interaction by being always willing to buy or sell at a given price.
In finance lingo, this is called providing liquidity to financial exchanges. At any given moment, you should be confident to liquidate your position for cash. To give a sense of scale, tens of trillions in dollars are processed through these firms every year.
My time trading has been one of the most transformative periods of my life. It not only taught me a lot of technical knowledge, but it also moulded me to be a self-starter, independent thinker, and hard worker. I strongly recommend anyone that loves problem solving to give trading a shot. You do not need a mathematics or finance background to get in.
The trading culture is analogous to professional sports. It is a zero sum game where there is a clear defined winner and loser — you either make or lose money. This means that both your compensation and job security is highly dependent on your performance. For those that are curious, the rough distribution of a trader’s compensation based on performance is a tenth of the annual NBA salary.
There is a mystique about trading in popular media due to the abstraction of complicated quantitative models. I will shed light on some of the fundamental principles rooted in all trading strategies, and how they might apply to you.

Arbitrage

One way traders make money is through an arbitrage or a risk free trade. Suppose you could buy an apple from Sam for $1, and then sell an apple to Megan at $3. A rational person would orchestrate both legs of these trades to gain $2 risk free.
Arbitrages are not only found in financial markets. The popular e-commerce strategy of drop-shipping is a form of arbitrage. Suppose you find a tripod selling on AliExpress at $10. You could list the same tripod on Amazon for $20. If someone buys from you, then you could simply purchase the tripod off AliExpress and take home a neat $10 profit.
The same could be applied to garage sales. If you find a baseball card for $2 that has a last sold price on EBay for $100, you have the potential to make $98. Of course this is not a perfect arbitrage as you face the risk of finding a buyer, but the upside makes this worthwhile.

Positive expected value bets

Another way traders make money is similar to the way a casino stacks the odds in their favour. Imagine you flip a fair coin. If it lands on heads you win $3, and if it lands on tails you lose $1. If you flip the coin only once, you may be unlucky and lose the dollar. However in the long run, you are expected to make a positive profit of $1 per coin flip. This is referred to as a positive expected value bet. Over the span of millions of transactions, you are almost guaranteed to make a profit.
This exact principle is why you should never gamble in casino games such as roulette. These games are all negative expected value bets, which guarantees you to lose money over the long run. Of course there are exceptions to this, such as poker or card counting in black jack.
The next time you walk into a casino, make a mental note to observe the ways it is designed to keep you there for as long as possible. Note the lack of windows and the maze like configurations. Even the free drinks and the cheap accommodation are all a farce to keep you there.

Relative Pricing

Relative pricing is a great strategy to use when there are two products that have clear causal relationships. Let us consider an apple and a carton of apple juice. Suppose there have a causal relationship where the carton is always $9 more expensive than the apple. The apple and the carton is currently trading at $1 and $10 respectively.
If the price of the apple goes up to $2, the price is not immediately reflected on the carton. There will always be a time lag. It is also important to note that there is no way we can determine if the apple is trading at fair value or if its overpriced. So how do we take advantage of this situation?
If we buy the carton for $10 and sell the apple for $2, we have essentially bought the ‘spread’ for $8. The spread is fairly valued at $9 due to the causal relationship, meaning we have made $1. The reason high frequency trading firms focus so much on latency in the nanoseconds is to be the first to scoop up these relative mispricing.
This is the backbone for delta one strategies. Common pairs that are traded against each other includes ETFs and their inverse counterpart, a particular stock against an ETF that contains the stock, or synthetic option structures.

Correlations

Correlations are mutual connections between two things. When they trend in the same direction they are said to have a positive correlation, and the vice versa is true for negative correlations. A popular example of positive correlation is the number of shark attacks with the number of ice-cream sales. It is important to note that shark attacks do not cause ice-cream sales.
Often times there are no intuitive reason for certain correlations, but they still work. The legendary Renaissance Technologies sifted through petabytes of historical data to find profitable signals. For instance, good morning weather in a city tended to predict an upward movement in its stock exchange. One could theoretically buy stock on the opening and sell at noon to make a profit.
One important piece of advice is to disregard any retail trader selling a course to you, claiming that they have a system. These are all scams. At best, these are bottom of the mill signals that are hardly profitable after transaction costs. It is also unlikely that you have the system latency, trading experience or research capabilities to do this on your own. It is possible, but very difficult.

Mean reversions

Another common strategy traders rely on is mean reversion trends. In the options world the primary focus is purchasing volatility when it is cheap compared to historical values, and vice versa. Buying options is essentially synonymous with buying volatility. Of course, it is not as simple as this so don’t go punting your savings on Robinhood using this strategy.
For most people, the most applicable mean reversion trend is interest rates. These tend to fluctuate up and down depending on if the central banks want to stimulate saving or spending. As global interest rates are next to zero or negative, it may be a good idea to lock in this low rate for your mortgages. Again, consult with a financial advisor before you do anything.

Fred and George eagerly offer up a truly absurd bet with almost no provocation when Ludo Bagman offers one. They bet 37 Galleons, 15 sickles and 3 knuts, plus a fake wand Ludo values at 5 galleons (a real wand is 7 galleons so its a really impressive fake, it seems. )
Now most people would assume it's a straightforward bet and if the twins are correct, Ludo owes them 85 galleons, 13 sickles and 6 knuts. (Or 79 Galleons if he returns the wand when he pays up.)
But Ludo says something very important in the area of sports betting. "I'll give you excellent odds on that!"
Which means the twins are not doing a 1 for 1 bet, but are getting a bet which pays in multiples. Once odds enter the discussion, there is no way its a 1 for 1. No one has ever considered a 1 for 1 bet "excellent odds."
The odds are not stated, but Fred and George's wager is absurd. They are betting that the most famous athlete in the most famous sport in their world will either make a tremendous, legendary blunder on par with Chris Webber calling the fateful timeout he didn't have to lose the NCAA championship, or Andres Escobar making the own-goal in the 1994 FIFA world cup that ultimately led to his murder a month later.
Or worse, that the most famous athlete will lose the game on purpose. This is not entirely uncommon in sports, and almost always for the same reason: betting. People in organized crime pay an athlete to lose, then bet as much as they can on the lost, guaranteeing their returns. But it's majorly illegal and if caught it means you're banned from the sport for life. Big stakes for an 18 year old wunderkind with his entire pro career ahead of him.
In other words, their prediction is hugely unlikely. No one else at the World Cup is looking for that bet and no other betting service would even think to offer odds on it. (Remember that matches lasting multiple days are common which means most seekers aren't getting bored and grabbing the snitch after 3 hours just to go home if they're losing.) And hugely unlikely bets get excellent odds. Betting on a winner and loser is straightforward, but betting on isolated elements of a game like that is much more complex and carries much higher odds. Think roulette, they're not betting on black or white. They're betting on specific numbers, but still way beyond that. Glance through Super Bowl prop bets and you'll see picking the guy who scores the winning touchdown or field goal will have odds between 1 to 100 and 1 to 1,000 depending on the players role in the offense.
So how much would the twins have won if Bagman was an honest man? The twins don't say a word about odds, which was incredibly foolish of them, so we'll run the gamut. (I'm including the knuts and sickles in the calculations but after adding them to the galleon tally I'm just reporting the galleons.)
- If they bet at 3 to 1 they would make 128.66 Galleons, not counting getting their original 37 back.
- If it's 5 to 1 they win 214.44
- 10 to 1 pays 428.88
- 20 to 1 pays 857.77. This, frankly would be the absolute minimum of acceptable odds if the twins knew their way around a sports book. Still very low.
- 25 to 1 pays 1,072.21
- 50 to 1 pays 2,144.42
- 100 to 1 pays 4,288.84
- 200 to 1 pays 8,577.69
- 500 to 1 pays 21,444.22 This is probably outside the realm of possibility without Ludo having a legit backer or running a legitimate book operation, he simply wouldn't accept a bet that would pay out like this. However, in a legitimate casino this would be the type of odds necessary to make someone bet on something this unlikely.
All that to say the 1,000 Galleons Harry gave them might be far less than what their seed money would have looked like if Ludo was honest, loaded, and fair.

The results are in for Match 6. The winner is…
Player Team, with a score of 83 to Ernie Ford’s 62!

Category	Winner	Point Totals	Comments
Popularity	Players	25-5
Quality	TIE	24-24	Reasoning
JoJolity	Players	24-23	Reasoning
Conduct	TEAM	10-10

...“You know what I'm here for!” Effie’s words rang out as Ernie watched on at the unexpected turn of events.
“The funny thing is I really don’t know.” Ernie stood there and took in the scene. Was this the first time he had seen this type of outburst in the District? Ernie tried to recall, but now wasn’t really the time to reminisce on bad memories.
Something was afoot. Something about Ugo threatening them that was for sure. But if Ugo wanted somebody to fight him this would never be his plan of attack. “Would you care to enlighten me then, I wouldn’t mind this either way!” Ernie shouted back, his tone was neutral, the tension of the situation only increased, but he didn’t see a need to fight back even now.
“They sent us here, because they wanted us to steal your notebook!” Ernie heard the voice of Jenny behind a tree.
Things started to make sense to Ernie, the hiding, why it wasn’t Odin’s people doing this, and that outburst. “And what do you two intend to do?” Ernie moved his backpack from his back to carrying it on one arm.
“Well if you help us, you could send them a fake notebook! It’s not like we like those fuckers anyways!” Jenny replied beyond the trees.
Well that wasn’t so difficult was it, it only took one or maybe both of their ire to get to this arrangement. Ernie weighed this against the prospect that they were lying to him, but if it came down to it it would just be either a fight now or a fight later. “Alright I’ll help you! I’ll be in my cabin manuscripting! You two wait outside, this will take less than an hour!” Ernie shouted back over as he started to walk back to his cabin.
“Your funeral..wait what?!” Effie flipped as Jenny clapped an arm on her, “We did it, we can get out of this shitty situation.”
Effie looked around, The Murder receded back into herself. “Did that really just happen?” She held out the hope that it really would be that easy, she wanted to believe it but she felt a slight pang of confusion, guilt maybe?
Jenny continued on, “We just have to make sure that he does his end of the deal and we’ll be out of here in no time.” Jenny looked at Effie’s face as she noticed the change in expression, “You okay there? You let out a bunch just now and if you wanted to talk about it.”
“No I’m ok, come on we have to still keep an eye on him.” Effie brushed Jenny’s arm off and made her way closer into the clearing with Jenny following.
Well, that was somewhat anticlimactic. If you were hoping for a match with some more carnage in it, how about checking out a race out of a monster-filled urn and voting on it?
Scenario:
Sound’s Garden Eastern Strip - Heartache Casino VIP Room
“So kind of you all to come again,” a man dressed garishly in gold spoke to a roomful of wealthy highrollers, a lounge area with a wall taken up by a screen large enough to make the place double as something of a particularly cozy home theater, a setup which had typically been reserved for two things: watching games organized by Heartache Casino’s owner on the closed-circuits of buildings he owned, and being rented out for private parties and banquets.
“This is pretty unconventional,” a dark-haired sniper remarked between drinks, staring at the screen as it showed, largely, several shots of a building in Downtown Los Fortuna, which seemed to have rapidly grown occupied by a small group of Stand Users, some of whom familiar to the district’s regulars after some close shaves in the subways both occupied, “but it’s brilliant… Just needed to get your tech guy to get cameras in there, now you have a huge show for free.”
“Should you be drinking, Seido?” The gold-clad owner asked, raising an eyebrow, “I mean, if something comes up…”
“If something comes up, I’m off-duty, I’m just a guest right now, and I can shoot well enough sloshed to get myself out of a bind. If you wanted me as security, you should’ve hired me for that… Though really, I’d have rather been down there raising some hell if I was gonna shoot things.”
Tigran sighed, finding that fair enough, he supposed… He wasn’t going to hire this man when he was buzzed, and he wouldn’t do guard detail for free either. Apparently, the man literally came to the city walking out of a bar into the flag unveiling, so he shouldn’t have been surprised.
Still, though, even with moods high here, nobody seeming to mind the way anonymous characters like Oh No and Conqueror Worm mingled among them. Sure, they were kind of a low-priority target right now, with protests in the Business district, the hell-on-earth about to be unleashed Downtown keeping their worst nightmares busy, and the usual BS in places like the Waterfront and Industrial, but the man once noted for his supremely smarmy overconfidence had been feeling more anxious lately, probably because the Entertainment District’s criminal underground had taken some losses recently.
Things were riding high with several successful games, and the arrival of Conqueror Worm, revitalizing everything that they had thought they’d known and opening up whole new possibilities of what games might be possible to organize from a place of safety, all while not asking for a penny of payment. He was a weird guy, but a valuable asset, and all that was understood to be asked in return was that they pretend not to know exactly who it was underneath that big fleshy suit.
And then, the next time they had an in-person event, a bunch of them died in a fire, and on the way to… Well, who knew why he was there, but something happened that got a formerly active manager and ‘game’ organizer murdered blocks away from the site of the flames. Was it a sign, then, that the old ways really were dying, that they needed to change with the times or lose this subculture of theirs entirely?
Maybe, and maybe some would leave it like that, but Tigran “Golden” Sins knew another source of common ground with every one of their games to go wrong, to go awry, to risk the future and safety of all that they were, all that they had. Everything (besides that time he got punched in the face) that had gone wrong, from Thutmose leaving them, to events that were supposed to be disastrous bloodbaths going well for the ‘players’ and ruining bets, could trace back somewhere.
And she was sitting there looking very disinterested, nursing a sparkling juice in a very expensive evening dress and earrings, recently bought by the only man in the world he believed to be above himself.
“Having a good time, Metra?” Fox asked the star known to much of the city as TD/MD, smiling smoothly and paying her more attention than the event itself, where he was significantly more public than before. He’d spent how many thousands on her in a few days?
“Sure, yeah,” she answered, with a clear disinterest and foul mood.
“I understand if you’re not… we’re all sorry to have lost Thutmose. Most likely by where he was, whoever killed him would have done the same to us had he not interfered. So he would want you to have a good time, right?”
“Alright, everyone, last calls!” Conqueror Worm called out, many eyes looking all over. After getting back from camera work, he’d volunteered to handle bets, on account of his utter disinterest in profiting from his work there. Damn shame, honestly; Tigran loved that weird golden Stand-hurting sword he’d always been swinging around, and something belonging to a regional founder would be a hell of a get to wear around. “We know all the key players in that little downtown scuffle, so let’s hear it! Who’s biting it? Who’s comin’ out? Who’s gonna have the highest bodycount? Is anyone even gonna get IN?”
That Oh No guy, from the Institute, spoke up through that voice changer he almost always had on in his coverings. “I think that… Three people will manage to find their way inside. Nobody on this betting board.”
“Ooh, bold words from our boldest regular!” Worm leaned in close, asking, “how much’re you puttin’ on that?”
“Nothing,” No responded, “I just want to see what comes of it… I’m almost disappointed you needed to ask.”
Peas in a pod, those two. Tigran sighed, figuring he might need to drink through these proceedings, only to glance at Metra, suddenly, seeming to smirk, ears twitching as if that special pitch of hers had picked something up. “What? What’s so fun now, that-”
The heavily reinforced, hidden doorway to the VIP room burst open, bisecting the hollow yet burly door guard as sand and rocks spilled out of its hollow crevasse, the only herald within seconds of a quintet of Stand Users barreling in, led by a trio on two motorbikes as two others, curious but energetic, followed.
“All that you’ve done ends here, Fox!”
Around the same time, Heartache Casino Public Floors
“Uh… Glitch? I think… it might be good if we… go?” William Eyelash was not liking it here very much. His hyperactive coworker and teammate had practically dragged him here after what was otherwise a simple delivery performed in place of Zebra, who had been busy enough delivering food to the other side of the city. William was the one supposed to carry it out, but Glitch had practically jumped at the opportunity to do so.
Glitch herself, meanwhile, seemed to be very content eating some fries which she (very regrettably) had to actually buy instead of simply snatching it away from a poor, unaware bystander, and had already ordered another plate because they were just that good. Security was too tight, somewhat on edge - the moment she got close to someone or something, they immediately turned their attention to her. Still, she didn’t want to deprive herself of one of the many pleasures of life like that, so she didn’t mind paying too much. “Mmrgh..? Why sho?”
“W- well… you know… uh...” William wasn’t sure how to say it - he was scared enough of Glitch’s erratic mannerisms most days, and that was while he tried to steer clear of her. Were he to directly oppose her, he’d have no way of knowing what she’d do! On top of that, he couldn’t help but notice that she seemed slightly… on edge. She was usually hyperactive, but she seemed to be even more eager to jump from one thing to another recently, and to ignore anything that even slightly stressed her out. Considering everything that happened to the staff at the Elephant Bones recently, it made sense for her to be stressed, even if she didn’t really show it usually. “... um, you know the rumors about this place… right? ”
Glitch turned to look at William, tilting her head “Hm? What rumors?”. “Uh... well… about the ED… and the fighting rings… I saw an article about it on the Hermod, and… i- it could be dangerous to be here for too long...” hearing William say that, Glitch seemed to recede for a bit, thinking to herself. “Mmm... well, it hasn’t been a problem yet! Right? Besides, the other chips haven’t arrived yet!” Glitch didn’t want to think much about it - so long as these fighting rings were away from her, she could just ignore them and go on with her life, but if it really was here, then maybe it would be good to avoid this place… but the fries were so good... Glitch took another look at the table she was sitting at and at the plate of fries she’d ordered. She grabbed a handful and ate them. “Mmm… after the second order of chips comes! Then we leave! But only after then!”
“Alright...” William didn’t like this very much, and he couldn’t help but shoot nervous glances around as Glitch finished up. Just about every staff member here was on edge and uncomfortable - he knew how to notice these things, and it would make sense if this place really was connected to the underground. Ugh… Why did he come along with Glitch? He’d just have to hope that the second order would come soon, and then they’d be able leave just as quickly as they came in.
Naturally, as if fate itself had conspired to screw him over, he couldn’t help but pick up on ‘something’. Guards around the floor peered nervously into their phones, and most of them began rushing towards the stairwell. Glitch had noticed as well, her ears picking up on the nervous murmurings of the guards and their hasty footsteps.
“Uhh… G- Glitch, something’s happening, we should-” “Pleh! Can’t you wait just a second! The chips aren’t here yet! This isn’t-”
Before Glitch could finish her sentence, something flew into the room - the body of a security officer, clearly tossed away by some stand, flew from the entrance to the second floor, and landed right in the middle of a group of more security officers.
“Oh god oh god it’s happening oh no oh no oh no oh-” William was, as expected, positively freaking out by now. Meanwhile, Glitch was keeping her ears peeled out, having picked up on something… interesting. The voice of two people she vaguely recognized from “Taste of Fortuna” a month or so back.
“Hey! That’s Agnes! And that other chef whose food is good! Even better than the chips!! What are they doing here, fighting?!”
Soon enough, Agnes and Arpeggi really did pop into the room, their stands summoned as they staved off some guards with them. Much to William’s chagrin, Glitch grabbed onto his hand and summoned [Vida Loca], before hopping onto it, the massive feline hoisting him onto it as well, before running right towards the source of the commotion…
And right into the footpath of a terrifying giant who seemed to suddenly fall from the ceiling, several eyes along its body looking to them as its head rotated 180 degrees. “Well, wouldn’t you like to know?”
Several minutes earlier, A Few Stories Lower - Sound’s Garden Abandoned Subway
“Are you sure this is the place? Seems pretty fucking trashy to me, honestly…”
“That’s what makes it a secret passage, Agnes… They’re not exactly rolling out the red carpet to tell you how to get there.”
“Ugh, Astronomia wasn’t built for this shit. You’re paying if something gets stuck somewhere.”
“You’ve crashed it how many times this month alone?”
Arpeggi Osso Buco sat in the sidecar of a motorbike driven by one Ananas “Agnes” Bayley, through the abandoned subways of the Eastern strip. He’d meant to take this trip alone, like he had before, but of course, this fucking guy had to be the first on the team to learn that he was a Stand User, an active vigilante, and not only in part responsible for a certain cult’s influence plummeting to nothing in Los Fortuna, but had dedicated himself to making an enemy of the blight of the Entertainment District.
“Fuck it, I’m down.”
“You’re… What?”
“I’m down. Fuck those guys. I don’t even need to ask any more questions, they’re an absolute disgrace to be shown up by a real villain, and if you’re hunting their boss down, I’m with you.”
“You are the last person I would want watching my back in a-”
“Or I can tell Gabanna what you’re doing so soon after getting SHOT last time you tried your luck with these guys.”
“…bastard. Okay, just don’t get in the way.”
Minus a near-scare with RCR’s nightmarish train nearly running them down without noticing, and Arpeggi having to explain at some point that it was both private information from a set of informants and news now publicly printed in multiple sources about the higher-ups of this organization, it had mostly gone smoothly since then.
As they drove closer to the underside of Heartache, Arpeggi signaled for Agnes to stop, noting a destroyed set of hollowed-out mannequins of sorts, smoking and smelling like gunpowder.
“Hell is that?” Agnes asked, looking down, but Arpeggi, in turn, didn’t quite seem surprised. Before he could explain, however, another, distorted voice cut through.
“You’re late.”
The revving of a second motorcycle, a sport bike, had quietly synced with Astronomia, and the pair looked up to see a figure clad in orange and black, winglike scarf drooping upside-down, its rider atop the ceiling of the tunnel.
“You.” Agnes spoke with contempt, despite having never seen the Black Angel in person before, only for them and their bike to drop down right in front of them, flipping in midair to land gracefully.
“You didn’t tell me you were bringing a friend, let alone… Him.” The Angel sounded dubious about Agnes’ presence, adding, “since you took time picking him up, I’ve had to start picking off these weird… hollow doll-guards myself. They almost noticed me in time to signal the boss. I really don’t have the time for this today.”
“Sorry about that, he insisted,” Arpeggi wrote off, not wanting to explain the somewhat unsurprising (“ran into one another while doing their vigilante rounds, got to talking about the ED mainly”) story how he and the Angel met, “and he’s here right now… Say what you like about him, you saw that Being So Normal, I assume. He’ll be an asset.”
“I’ll kick your ass-et,” Agnes grumbled, “fighting them alone my ass. Ugh, teaming up with masked hero types like this… Pisses me off. We should be kicking each other’s asses, Angel.”
“Deal with it,” the Angel wrote off, before adding, “our contacts in there… They said basically everyone we might have any reason to get is on that floor with them, watching Downtown.”
“Right, some madman is acting out there,” Arpeggi noted, folding his arms and looking Westward, “I take it that’s why you’re in a hurry? You want to deal with them quickly and head out there next?”
“You got it,” they answered, “and admittedly, there’s a reason I had to come here first… Something I’m going to prioritize the highest, and if we take too long, I’ll have to leave having only done that.”
“You’ve got a grudge, is that it?” Agnes asked, “you wanna punt some fucker before moving on?”
“That’s… not why I’m targeting him,” The Angel noted, before adding, “that sword the Conqueror Worm always has on him… The ‘Sword of Sir Aurel…’ The future of the city might depend on me getting that Downtown. The contacts say he still has it with him, just like on that stream.”
“You’re pissing me off, pretending you don’t care about just one-upping that bastard,” Agnes chided, adding, “act like you’re ‘heroes of justice’ all you want… I’m doing this because these guys piss me the hell off, and seeing them fall will make me laugh. Do all of us a favor, cut the bullshit, and admit you’re gonna enjoy this, yeah?”
The others didn’t say too much more of note, then, beyond the Angel briefly examining Astronomia, putting something all over it that they claimed would ‘make it maneuver better,’ which Arpeggi had to calm Agnes into accepting, especially considering it meant they could ride up stairs with relative ease.
“Alright, from this secret passage, it’s a straight shot up a few flights of stairs to the VIP room… We should be able to burst it down without ever disrupting all the public patrons and fortifications up on 1F. Hold on tight, you got that?”
The motorbikes revved, then, and the Angel’s led Agnes in seeming to leap into the air, driving up and along the walls of the stairwell, before a long-haired figure emerged from the Angel, aiming something at a metal reinforced door, firing into it a few times, and it shifted in place as Pork Soda rushed towards it, placing a tab on the material before ripping it away, liquid metal blasting in the opposite direction the door would fly and swing at rapid speed, swinging like a deadly projectile and cutting more powerful puppet guards away as the three burst in.
Arpeggi called out, “All that you’ve done ends here, Fox!”
Not long after Arpeggi called that out, Fox himself, of course, was quick to stand, as were a few bold-looking members of the crowd, hurrying towards the fighters with his own accompanying doll-guard, small enough to hold in two hands and, with his large frame, swing like a hammer-thrower, lobbing up towards them and bursting open into a mess of pointed rocks as he drew closer, repelling Arpeggi’s immediate attempts to approach.
The swinging door, embedded with odd screws and still gushing metal soda, began to fly towards him, only for the sound of a rifle to fill the room, a single warping bullet putting out every one of the odd screws and careening it to strike Arpeggi back, sending him flying down the stairwell before either the Angel or Agnes could react.
Seido, sitting at his edge of the bar, finished downing his drink, holding his weapon in one hand and grinning a bit, slurring slightly, “thas’ goin’ on your tab, boss…”
Fox smirked, then, rocks and sand swirling around him and beating back the remaining attackers’ efforts to burst forward. “Let’s not fight up here, gentlemen… I’ve set this place up nice for a very special guest. Take it downstairs. Seido, consider yourself on the clock now.”
Worm, then, seemed to realize the Angel was staring at his movements, diving down into the floor below to the terror of the 1F patrons, and the rider hurriedly cut away from the clash, leaving Agnes to fend for himself against the rocky onslaught of Fox, all while Oh No watched and Seido, quickly, lined up another shot. Even on this upgraded bike, he knew the only response to make there. “Fffuck this!”
Pork Soda reached for Astronomia, a tab appearing on its wheel which, as the Stand weathered rocky blows, it pulled, blasting Agnes back into the stairwell, where he hit the wall with an, “oof!” before hopping off of his ride, which crashed and plummeted down as he abandoned it to slide down the railing, doing a cool combat roll to cover Arpeggi and the Angel as they rolled into the first floor, clearly concerned about what Conqueror Worm being there would mean for the patrons. Fox and others were shortly behind, with a certain exception.
Though nobody could hear it, by Metra Doria’s choice, as soon as Seido had spoken that aloud, she’d kicked up the chair she’d been sulking in all ‘party’ long, a pair of headphones appearing along her neck as a blast of sonic energy kicked it directly into the head of the hitman. Her heart skipped a beat, then, and she muttered under her breath, “shit, that actually worked… I got lucky, huh?”
“Entirely,” Oh No agreed, stepping forth himself and stretching, producing a very large, intimidating revolver from his cloak and beginning, idly, to load it, “but don’t treat that as a failing, TD/MD… You saw a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity, and you had the instincts to take it.” No closed the chamber, starting leisurely towards the stairs after the rest. “This is getting tiresome, isn’t it? You see it too, how dull this has gotten… What potential they’re wasting here. What do you say we speed along what’s been a long, long time coming?”
“Well, wouldn’t you like to know?”
A golden, shining sword appeared out of the giant’s gross hand, and his presence alone made Glitch want to wretch, the smell of the Conqueror Worm fell, and vibes even more rancid.
“We got two more troublemakers here, eh?” Worm asked her and William with an amused tone, “Hell just broke loose here, and you’re tryin’ to run headlong into it! I like that! I like that drive! So what do ya say? Attacka them!”
Glitch didn’t know this guy, but something about his gleeful nature, the way that William murmured to himself in alarm when he spoke those distorted words, made her hairs stand on end, made her want to hiss and immediately turn her attention to him, and it seemed, then, that Worm could sense this.
“Another one who ain’t a fan, huh?” He shook his head. “Disappointing, but typical.”
At that, he ducked into the floor, before attempting to burst out from underneath and drive his blade up into Vida Loca, barely being scraped before hopping away from the rising attack and meeting it with a sharp, harsh claw, beating back his raw strength with her Stand’s own.
“I don’t know who you are, but you’re really not the kind of bad news that’s any fun!” Glitch called out from atop her mount, pulling off in time to avoid the ambush of a hollowed-out guard and note two others bothering William.
“That guy looks underage… He ain’t allowed to be on a casino floor without ID!” Worm declared with amusement, fully expecting what came next as several of the doll-guards attempted to strong-arm him.
“G-get away… Get away from me!” William was freaking out, then, and fairly fearing for his life, allowed Ocean Eyes to manifest, swinging and spraying acid all around, which bounced uselessly off of Worm’s hide, didn’t so much as drop near Glitch or Vida Loca, and melted away the threats in an instant.
The casino floor was pandemonium then, several high rollers, some random patrons, and of course, every named member fighting, Stands flying. Arpeggi expertly caught rocks tossed by Fox, only for him to still control them even as they were made to burn by NEXT LEVEL 2, though this eroded away much of the sands of his barrier, backed up by Agnes as he very competently kept a rocky barrier up regardless, Metra standing close by, shifting her eyes. The Black Angel tried to drive headlong into Worm, continuing his mess of a situation, while Glitch, mostly, managed to sneak off on her own, trying to find a way to support William and calm him out of whatever this was.
“Don’t move,” a modulated voice behind her said, and she heard something click behind her.
“Mrr?” She turned, then, facing the barrel of Oh No’s revolver head-on.
“This might be a bit loud… But it’s about time this ended.”
Before Glitch could react, No had pulled the trigger twice. Neither shot so much as grazed her, but seemed to hit tables, cameras, walls, ricocheting about in apparent chaos, before finally…
“I… What did…” Blood ran down the organizational ringleader’s outfit, bleeding both from a massive wound to the back of his knee and opening a massive hole in his shoulder, as the rocks he had been flinging around dropped like… Rocks.
Tigran’s voice was the next thing to ring out through the casino, now mostly abandoned bar the combatants.
“TOBY!!!”
Fox hadn’t even heard the shots fired, thanks to Metra, let alone noticed their angles; after all, the only one he knew of who could make a shot like that was knocked out and drunk upstairs, not to mention loyal to Tigran’s paychecks.
No twirled his gun around, holstering it and patting the bewildered Glitch on the shoulder. “Thanks for holding still… Didn’t want to hit you and ruin it all, after all. Hmmhmmhmahaha!"
“You… You motherfuckers!” Tigran wanted to cry then, especially as the others drew closer, seeing everyone who had fought against an ally of his here as little more than an enemy. Still, though, facing them off, he had to calm himself.
“Stand down,” Arpeggi demanded, “you’re outnumbered, completely.”
Tigran, rather than giving up, began to speak again. “You know, as the owner of this casino, I know the power of ‘games’. You see, if you call it a ‘gamble’, that sounds so… negative, no? So you call it nothing more than a simple ‘game’. That’s what draws people in. Getting people to play ‘roulette’ is harder, but if you call it a ‘roulette game’ and mask it correctly, it’s so, so, easy… However, the moment the ball is launched, it doesn’t matter, does it? No difference between a ‘gamble’ and a ‘game’... the ‘contract’ is the same - you abandon your money for ‘entertainment’ and for a slim ‘hope’ that you’ll succeed this time and make bank… It’s all thanks to these ‘games’... All of you lot, don’t you think so? Aren’t ‘games’ great? Hell, I’ve got an idea for one we can play right now…”
“Wh- what the hell are you talking about!” Arpeggi shouted out in anger. “I’m not putting up with this shit! You want a ‘game’?! Sure, fine! Here, how about this one - I go up to you, and have fun beating the shit out of you!” rushing towards Tigran, Arpeggi readied a punch and swung towards him - only for his fist to stop in midair, hitting against some kind of invisible barrier. He reeled back from the impact, stumbling backwards, feeling… weak. A look behind him revealed that Agnes, Glitch, William, and even Metra, the Angel, and No seemed to be feeling the same, struggling to remain upright.
“Y- you ‘agreed’... heh…” Tigran’s previously panicked expression quickly faded, replaced by a wide grin. “You agreed to it! You agreed to the ‘game’!” By now, Tigran broke out into uproarious laughter. “Always! They always fall for it, tempted by ‘games’! You… you idiot! I put the answer right in front of you, and you still missed it! ‘Games’, by their very nature, are tricks! Illusions! And my [The Grid] has the power to facilitate that! By agreeing to the game, my [The Grid] forces you to participate! There’s no escape now - you’re trapped in this ‘game’ of mine!”
As he realized he had screwed them all right at the last moment, Arpeggi’s vision began fading, and he fell onto the ground with a thud, blacking out.
???, an hour later, Heartache Casino VIP room
“Alright! Seems like our contestants for the first impromptu match of the day are waking up!”
“Plrrr..?” Out of nowhere, Glitch found herself standing straight, awake, somewhere unfamiliar. She tried to listen to see what was going on, only hearing the groans of William, Agnes, and Arpeggi, indicating that they were in a similar position to her. Of course, there was also that voice - she was… a ‘contestant’. It wasn’t hard to roughly figure out what exactly she was a ‘contestant’ of. She, and...
“...William!” Behind her was a whimpering noise, evidently William, and the sound of droplets of some kind of liquid splashing onto the ground, clearly [Ocean Eyes]’s acid. Ahead of her were Agnes and Arpeggi, talking between themselves about what the hell happened. Arpeggi sounded mad. Agnes… she wasn’t sure how he sounded. But she gathered enough from their conversation to understand that somehow, they were currently inside of a roulette wheel. Or rather, she, and everyone else, was shrunk, and placed into a roulette wheel.
“Now, this match is simple - a deathmatch to see who manages to survive! However, since we’re at the heartache casino… there’s an appropriate twist involved! See, our combatants for today are fighting on a roulette table, and meanwhile, our spectators for today are placing ‘bets’ to see which colors win out! Representing ‘red’, we’ve got our very own ‘Fox’! On black, meanwhile, we’ve got ‘Tigran Sins’, who set this match up!”
She summoned [Vida Loca] besides her, taking a look through the stand’s eyes and seeing the environment for herself. She was dwarfed by the room, trapped inside of this small roulette wheel. There was nowhere to run. William’s whimpers had escalated into sobbing, as [Ocean Eyes] hugged him from behind. Arpeggi and Agnes were arguing by now, shouting at each other. She took a deep breath.
“Now… I won’t keep you waiting any longer, since I just know everyone here’s excited to see what happens! So...”
First, Glitch got tossed into Los Fortuna and found a new home there, with the rest of the staff at the Elephant Bones. Then, they started getting into fights with other stand users - Shelldrake, Effie, Byte, William. She hadn’t been in one yet, but she knew very well the effects of them. Her friends had gotten hurt, some such as Father Blue even dying. Then the situation in the slums got worse, her home becoming less and less safe by the minute, her friends getting extorted and forced to work for ODIN, and now she and William were trapped here.
“Three… Two… One...”
She needed to get out. She needed to fight. She needed to win. She could overhear Agnes and Arpeggi bickering on the other side of the wheel, but knew that they were going to try and fight her and William as well. They had to. They’d been trapped by that man’s stand, and none of them knew what could be done against it, if anything.
[Vida Loca] stood behind her, a constant vibration coming out of it and creating a loud hissing noise that was soon mimicked by [Ocean Eyes], drowning out William’s sobs. She knew full well that, even if he was her friend, William was also a dangerous killer, meek though he might have acted. As hard as that whole situation was to grasp, she understood something else - that the more she stayed near [Ocean Eyes], working alongside it, the safer she was. She and William had to get out of this. And if they wanted to get out of this...
They would have to fight for their lives.
OPEN THE GAME!
(credit to magistelles for the image, both the censored and uncensored version!(CW: trypophobia))
Location: A roulette wheel in Heartache Casino, upon which players have been forcibly placed.
The map here is roughly similar to the image of the roulette wheel above. The outer brown layer represents the rim, the yellow layer being the wooden slopes down towards the center, the black layer being the numbers, the red layer being the pockets, the next layer being sloped wood up towards the center, and the center being a metal tower.
The map is 30 by 30 meters relative to the players, with the dotted tile being 5 by 5 meters.
The diamonds are the metal bumpers, about half a meter tall, and the blue circle is a weighted metal roulette ball which is a meter tall, both heights relative to the players.
The metal tower in the center is 8 meters tall relative to the players and the outside walls are 5 meters relative to the players. Players can not go past the rim of the roulette wheel.
Goal: RETIRE your opponents!
Additional Information:
There is an invisible barrier keeping the players and their Stands inside the roulette wheel. Everything else will pass through as normal, but the players and their attacks will be blocked by this barrier. The barrier is cylindrical around the entire roulette wheel.
The roulette system is currently automatic, 5 seconds after the ball falls into a pocket or stops moving entirely, it will start rolling again at top speed clockwise. The max speed of the ball is equivalent to B SPD and the ball is A DUR. You can expect it to make around 8 revolutions around the wheel before losing most of its speed if it is unimpeded by the players.
If the ball is destroyed or unable to roll, a new one will be thrown in from outside.

Team	Combatant	JoJolity
The Graveyard Shift	William Eyelash	“W-Well, I'll be going now...” You’re being forced to fight, and you don’t want anything to do with this! During the match, try to stay on the backlines as much as possible, assisting from there!
The Graveyard Shift	Tiger “Glitch” Ricky	"Nowadays, 30,000 yen is gone after you make one or two trips... So all that's left is to make more money, or go flat broke." You are being forced to fight here, and you hate it, so you might as well do something to cause the casino to lose money! Do whatever you can to constantly rig the roulette in favor of odds!
BADD GUYS	Arpeggi Osso Buco	"Does that alien not know what 'holding back' means?" You were tricked by that asshole, and now you’ve got to fight these two bystanders?! Fuck, this makes you irritated. Destroy as much of the area as possible over the course of your strategy!
BADD GUYS	Ananas “Agnes” Bayley	"I did say this seemed fun, but I wasn't talking about Cee-lo. I meant that it'd be fun taking your 30,000 yen from you." That girl over there is trying to rig the game, so play the agent of chaos and rig it towards the other end! Do whatever you can to constantly rig the roulette in favor of evens!

Link to the Official Player Spreadsheet
Link to Match Schedule
As always, if you would like to interact with the tournament community and be among the first to get updates for the tournament, please feel free to PM a member of our Judge staff for an invite to our Official Discord Server!

Any INTP knows the odds are against them all the time and that is enough to deter them. But I've always been a gambler. In middle school I got a multigame mini pool table, table tennis, and Roulette wheel and card table. My friends would come over and gamble money or things. My friend's mom disapproved and made him give me some stuff back (haha). I just didn't know I had to rake games to be "the house." In middle school the black kids taught white kids craps and we'd shoot for dollars. I still love a good dice game. We'd have them on payday after close a couple jobs ago. The shit talking is so much better than poker games.
In HS I gambled poker and chess a lot. My favorite poker game was played where everyone had 2.25g of shrooms in them. No poker faces and it didn't last that long. Not great at poker. I've gambled on Chess pretty successfully. Not great at Spades.
But I'm an INTP and Casinos aren't my thing. Rather gamble at pool at a dive bar.
That said I'm doing a lot of sports betting right now. I once read that a professional sports gambler only wins 55% of the time but they have advanced knowledge in props, parlays, hedging etc. I just figured at college and to a lesser extent pro football, I could pick the winner above 55% maybe even against against--the-spread. My favorite former gf was good at betting on the ponies because she was into horses and leased one, so she had similar inside knowledge as someone who's watched football for 25yrs
I put $150 deposit and got $165 because they passed some BTC savings onto me. First week I bet the full $165. I remember the bets too. $45 on Duke (Lost but beat the spread) Same with the $45 I put on S. Alabama. $45 on Coastal Carolina who won outright against Kansas $45. Because the house rakes the games I'd only win about $40 off each so that's $270. But I put a $30 parlay on all three winning and won $180. Turned $165 into $360 (not exact--change and some numbers were rounded). I qualified for a bonus $165 for betting everything. That's a cool $425.
I thought "Holy Shit I can just go pro" beginners luck. It was also right after I lost my job and I'm moving for a new one mid October. Back to my home city and old neighborhood. Pretty psyched really except moving is a hassle.
Two weeks ago lost $70. I thought that comes with the territory of a pro sports better. I broke even last week. This week I chose a new strategy and bet on 7 games instead of 3. Truth was I don't know a certain percentage. I know games I "know" but I only lost $60. It just feels worse because I went 1-6 instead of two weeks ago when I went 1-2. Plus I lose some change on the low probability parlays.
The problem is that I just dipped into my other $165 to bet on pro football. Put in a couple bets and a parlay. The winnings get transferred into my main account. I'm still up either $80 in my account (I can't cash in the "free money")
My floor is $200 because I wanna make at least $50 off this fun lil exercise but I see how addictive it is for the first time. I even sought out a Bitcoin chess gambling site mainly used by Africans but I don't play because either I'm not better at Chess than Nigerian Royalty or they use chess bots or both. It also was pretty obviously used for money laundering which is what the gambling sites are also used for. Now I'm betting on Sunday football. Not just Saturday.
I guess my cashout ceiling is a grand but I don't see that happening haha.
Point is that wk2 college football this year was like my first joint, the first time I mixed valium-codeine-and a belt of scotch at 14. The first time I painted something halfway decent under a bridge at 16. The first time I fucked a girl at 17. The first time I had an audience in stitches at 22 (standup). All very pleasurable and only relatively routinely done. Except maybe sex and drugs but they have other major downsides.
Hell when I learned to read at 8 I was attached to books my whole life but nobody thinks that's bad. Haha.
Do other people gamble?
I'm extraverted enough that if someone has dice on the street I'll shoot or if they have a chess game at a coffee shop. I'll bet $20.
Best in person bet was with a frenemy in my group who was the epitome of iamverysmart and everyone in my group thought he was a genius. I took $20 off him in front of everyone and he refused to try to win it back. Bad look for him.
I hope I can keep it just for fun. Any other INTP gamblers on here?
Edit: Forgot to mention I won $400+ in a $20 pool for the 2011 March Madness B-Ball tourney. I watched none of the regular season (like usual) but knew UConn was good but nobody picked them as they were a #3 seed. I didn't win most rounds either. Dumb luck. It's funny that I forgot because it was less recent than that grudge match against that guy I played chess against.

Hello everyone, I’m glad you came to hear what I have to say. This post will be long, too long maybe, but I’ve always had trouble with getting straight to the point. If you’re here just for the memes and weekly patch notes that’s fine. Thanks for stopping by and good luck on your journey. For everyone else, stick with me any you might just find a way to waste half of an hour of your life instead being productive.
Let’s start with short introduction: I play since launch and I’ve spent over 1000$ over that time. That’s it, wasn’t so bad, was it. The thing is that’s all what’s needed to somehow justify what I’m going to say below, but 1st let’s commit one of the cardinal sins of writing and establish, what this post is NOT about:
· It’s not a good bye letter. No one cares about those anyway. If you want to leave just do it without pretending like some random ppl from reddit will miss you or even notice.
· I’m not exposing anything. There’s no secret reveal at the end, no one at NM is going to lose their job because of what I’m going to say here. All the info is out there, most if all points have been stated in one post or another.
· No hard data and evidences. Sorry math folks, no charts and pivots for you to glare at. If I’m ever going to give a number here it’s going to be a rough estimate which might even be entirely wrong. No market research was performed and no accountants harmed during writing of this post.
· There’s no judgment posed on anyone. Whether you’re casual F2P or hardcore whale with spare phone grinding the game 24/7. Whether you’re meta slave with your own excel sheets and efficiency charts, having mapped your decisions 2 months ahead, or you’re just logging 3 times a week to maybe get a character that you liked in anime. Everyone is welcome here and there’s no wrong way to play this game. Of course people still trying to make kingbram work are incorrect and should purge their game data immediately.
· There’s no need to argue who’s right or wrong here. I’m going to state my PoV here and I’m sure many will have different perspectives. I’m not trying to change other’s minds and I’m not looking to have mine changed. If you want to state your point please do so in comments below or in a separate post and let’s exchange ideas instead of arriving to one and only universal truth.
I hope now we’re on the same page, so let’s begin.
Why are we spending money?
So as I stated below I’ve spent some money here. “Some” is a huge understatement honestly because that’s the most I’ve ever spent on a single game ever. For me it was never about “supporting the developers”. I personally don’t believe in that statement and I think that the was majority of money goes into pockets of CEO and shareholders while actual developers are paid standard market wages. Might be wrong, but that’s beside the point. I spend money to get the “stuff”. It can be unit that’s strong, it can be a unit that simply looks cool or is unique, it can be cosmetics (even for units I don’t use, hello Diane!), it can finally be more indirect “stuff” like getting to higher league of pvp. I pay to get things I wouldn’t otherwise get or to save time grinding. I feel like that’s the most common reason to spend money in games, but I might be entirely wrong. That reason is also highlighted by the way game limits the accessibility of those things. Some units are limited, cosmetics can only be bought for $ for 2 weeks before they’re available for gems. Units have their banners weeks before they’re being added to the coin shop.
And here we’re coming to the 1st problem with spending money. There’s a lot of things that aren’t guaranteed. You may want to get the new powerful unit that’s now on the banner, but with 0.5% chance you might get it within 10 pulls, or not get it in 1000. Sure, we have some step up banners or current LV one, but those are exceptions from the norm. Every pull has the same chance of giving you desired result so there’s no reason to think that with 200 pulls you’ll get 1/200 result. Probability is cruel in that regard and in the infinite universe we’ll find equal amount of players getting every single unit within 1st 3 gem pull as the amount of players rolling since the game launched and not getting single SSR unit beside random guarantees. Of course this is exaggeration, but it’s there to illustrate the point, that ultimately the amount of money you’re going to spend doesn’t matter. The reality is, if you’re not a massive whale who has no limits, then you’re spinning the same roulette as every other player. You get more chances, but logically there’s no reason to think they will change the final outcome.
It’s gacha, that’s how it’s supposed to be
Maybe, maybe not. Remember that gacha is just one of the elements of the game we’re playing. We don’t log in just to pull the unit and then close the game until the next banner arrives. Well, maybe some of us do, what do I know, however I’d bet my broken watch and half-eaten bag of chips that most of the players do a lot more in the game itself. We play against others in arena, we compete in super bosses and other events, some mad lads might even read the story. All of this doesn’t need the gacha to function. You can also have the gacha game that has much better odds of the good outcome than 0.5% or 0.28%. Gacha can even work in a system without microtransactions, why not? I’d even argue that gacha with guaranteed “pity” result at the end is still gacha. Show me the person who plays gacha to roll and lose every time, I’ll wait (no doubt there’s someone out there, I’d like to meet you). You can still have the thrill of spinning the wheel knowing that worst case, you just have to spin in 100 more times to get what you need. It’s not like game publisher will lose something every time a player gets featured unit.
Pace we’ve been moving so far and what lies ahead
The uncertainty of getting the units is just one thing. We’re getting better and better units at a crazy pace and despite promises from developers (like those were ever meant to be fulfilled) we’re not slowing down. Not long ago we had the most hyped PvE unit in the game, Derieri, quickly followed by arguably the most hyped PvP unit in the game, LV. Now we’re getting leaks that limited holiday units are coming soon. Not 1, not 2, 6 brand new units that are getting their banner(s) and after that we won’t know if they will be obtainable in the future. For me it’s a massive slap in the face. I like collecting, even for the completing purpose alone. That’s why I got all Slime units, that’s why I pulled to get all AoT units. Now after extremely resource (aka money) draining banner we’re getting a limited one, with a ton of new units. It’s not only that, those units have limited cosmetics (even more investment) that are arguably, more important to F2P players. Cosmetic upgrades are another massive grind that will come with hell raids and people who would benefit the most from getting extra materials from raids won’t be able to do so in most cases. This is the prime example of rich get richer and poor get poorer. Despite the promises, the speed at which we’re getting through content (read new units) seems to be increasing with each week. Getting a great unit and maxing it out also isn’t good enough anymore. We can’t have players be happy with what they have for more than a week, can we? So here come pvp rules, so now even mediocre units can be top dogs for that week, coincidentally those units happen to be featured on the banner the same week. Quickly buy also the cosmetics packs because that unit will be absolute trash when they’re finally available for gems.
Ok, but we’ll finally slow down, right? We have to
I’ve lost my hopes for that. If releasing better and better units is forcing people to spend more money, why on earth would NM stop doing so? What’s the argument for giving the player-base room to breathe? Releasing patch notes just before the new unit arrives, conducting witch hunt on data-miners? Wasn’t it done purely to limit player information and increase the frequency of situations where we’re caught by surprise and face the dilemma – spend money or not get what we want and be punished by it? Uninformed players make poor decisions and those result in more money spent.
If you’ve been looking at JP server you can clearly see that their approach also changed over past months. Following global server’s lead they now have final bosses releasing together with units designed to be used for the best scores. Oh, and instead of 242 gems step up let’s put 2 units on the same one with clearly the better one being guaranteed only on the 2nd rotation. 484 gems not good enough? Let’s make it 600 with only 1 guaranteed units so unlucky few will have to chose between cool unit that everyone have waited for and final boss cheese. Superawakening? What used to be terrible is still really bad. You still need more copies to have it cheaper and I’d wager that ppl who can only pull one copy of a unit aren’t really swimming in coins. Rich get richer and poor get poorer all over again. That all not to mention more and more units being introduced with exponentially scaling ultimates. We have our taste of that with LV, more are soon to come. Powercreep is natural part of many multiplayer games, but I’ve never seen it being so disturbingly fast as it is here.
So what’s your point again?
Money that you spend in this game doesn’t give you anything, unless you spend A LOT. At least from my experience everything is so random and changes so quickly, that I don’t feel like monthly/weekly subs matter at all. I can have extra few hundred gems to pull and still end up with nothing, costumes I might buy will be for units that within few weeks get irrelevant and/or heavily countered by the new shiny toy. I could have the same results not spending a dime and have the same experience. At this point I feel like to really feel any difference I’d have to at least double my spendings, even that could be not enough if NM decides to crank up the speed even more. To me there are really 2 groups of players: whales and the rest. Doesn’t matter if you buy nothing or just some, we’re all on the same boat as category B customers.
I don’t want to tell anyone what to do with their own money, by all means spend as much as you like. For me that means not spending at all. I might be wrong and maybe pure F2P experience will be very different from what I expected, but in this game especially I absolutely don’t feel any value in the money I’m putting in. I’m not trying to start another uproar like we had with Lilia (look how great it all went in the end), nor am I recommending other people to join some sort of protest. You all have your own minds and you can make your own decisions. Whales gonna whale and “vote with your wallets” never changed anything anyway. I just wanted to write this all down to clarify my thoughts and make it easier for myself to stop spending money on this game. If this helped anyone else, more power to you. I know that those kind of thought were coming to me for some time now and I’ve been dismissing them or simply forgetting, so hopefully this post will serve as a reminder to me and maybe more people.
WOW, you really did it, you stuck till the very end!
Here I’d like to personally thank my mom who always been there for me, my PE teacher from high school for coining a cool nickname for me that stuck, that nice gentlemen at the bakery who recommended me those cheesy pastries (they’re delicious) and to you dear reader, for avoiding responsibilities and spending time here with me debating the ethically questionable state of mobile gaming. Share your own thoughts in the comments, like and subscribe and stay safe!

I am a former Wall Street quantitative trader and researcher in NYC. I have often seen people aspiring to be quants build projects themselves, but fall into the trap of blindly fitting statistical models to the data. I have written an article to give people a better insight into strategies deployed on the Street.

Arbitrage

Positive expected value bets

Relative Pricing

Correlations

Mean reversions

Was martingaleing in roulette earlier, started with 2400 suddenly went up 3000 then 4000 then now i have 8000 pressed a wrong button which put 50 on all of red numbers, luckily won and ended up with 9600, kept betting with 100s as units, went up 9900. Wanted one last hit for that even 10k. 100 on red, black hit, 200, no, 400, no, 800, no 1600, no 3200, hit green. By this time i only had 3600 left and not enough to double down, felt that black will hit one more time and skipped a bet, its still black. Nice call then put all remaining on money on red, still turned out black. Staring at the 0 on my account and then 3 reds came out from the spin. I hate myself

I keep asking myself how did I get here, but I know exactly how I got to this point. It all started when I was 22, I overheard a couple guys I was playing golf with talking about betting on Arietta and the Cubs. To this point I knew people gambled on sports but I didn’t grow up in that type of home. Occasionally my father would play the squares on a football board or play poker for a few bucks but it wasn’t something I can say I grew up in. That all changed when I started my job at the local country club. If there was a bet for paint to dry these guys would do it. So I watched the Cubs game that night with interest, even though I had no money I watched and they won. I thought wow those guys made money for doing anything. I made my first deposit of $100 onto an offshore account. My first ever bet $20 on the Louisville Clemson Under, and it hit. I was ecstatic, sure it was only $20 but I did nothing to earn that money. This is where my problems started. Over the next few weeks I figured out parlays I hit 3 in two weeks times, for $800 a piece off of a $5 bet. I thought I was rich, I was only 22 so that was a lot of money. Then I discovered the roulette side of things on the online casino. Now this wasn’t my first time with casino gambling. I would take $50 to the local casino and be ok if I lost. My account sat at $2000 in that offshore off of a $50 deposit, and in one day it was all gone off of roulette. I didn’t think much of it I mean it was only $50 lost truthfully. Over the next few years I only would bet on football and basketball I lost some won some but nothing to impact my life. And then it happened. I made another deposit onto an offshore account. Played roulette and was up over $5000 in a week. And within a few hours after I had all these ideas of what I was going to do with the money...it was all gone again. This one stung, I felt like it was just a string of bad luck so I wanted to deposit again and I did that, and guess what lost $200 within the hour. My funds were running low so I went to the worst place you could, a payday company. I couldn’t wait on a normal loan I needed something I could deposit quick and win it back. Well 1 loan turned into 3. Credit cards were all maxed and it was suggested to me that I start to use a local bookie. You don’t need any money to deposit and you get weekly payouts. I thought sure why not. First month I won around $2000. I paid off the loans and some credit cards. My life seemed to be back on track. Then in one weekend I lost my account balance and now owed the local $3000. I came clean to my girlfriend, now wife and she was hurt but helped me. I thought that was it this was the wake up sign. A month later, I was back with a local, I told him I had a problem and to drop my account as it wasn’t I was bad at betting I was just bad at managing money. At least that’s what I told myself. Football starts and first day I owed the local $1500. I called him up asking if he could cancel all bets and I would go into GA, and that this my cost me my upcoming wedding. He agreed and said I needed help. But naturally my friend suggested a new guy, and I was right back to square one. I didn’t lose any money I couldn’t pay small amounts but still never won much. And this continued for another two years up until this last June. I was down $3800 on a Friday; and had no way of paying this. Knowing I couldn’t come clean to my wife or family I felt helpless. I started chasing and got lucky and got below the settle limit for the week. This was a routing for about 2 months. Days and nights spent chasing to get below the settle limit until it happened. I lost $2500 again in a week and didn’t have the means to pay. I have a decent job but so much debt that all my money is gone by the time it comes in. I told my wife I needed the money for a medical bill as I had some work done on my knee, and she helped. So I kept going at it thinking it was just bad luck again. I won $1000 a week ago, and now I lost $1000 in over 6 hours tonight. I’m faced with the decision to chase or not to chase. Telling my wife the truth could very likely end our marriage, but people always say I don’t know where I went wrong. I know where I went wrong, I went wrong from day 1 thinking this is a way to make easy money. Gambling will take everything you have your spouse has and your family has and won’t give anything back. It’s a disease and an addiction that is almost impossible to beat. I have thought the last few years life would be easier for everyone including me without me here. I can’t be that selfish though, I now have two jobs just to get out of debt and work around 80 hours a week. I hope the time at work will keep my mind off gambling. I’ve always personally love the numbers part of gambling and honestly speaking never had an issue I felt when I was making deposits and doing just sports. I have a desire to get back to that with sports betting going legal soon in my state but it’s something I don’t know if I want to be apart of. I want to be done with the bookies, the offshore casinos, and honestly gambling in any way. But I just don’t know where to start.

We all love to read stories about big wins and imagine ourselves in the shoes of those winners. But, have you ever thought about what happens at that very moment after successfully beating the slot machine? Usually, the slot machine locks up and, in most cases, you hear the music and see the flashing lights on top of the machine. But one of the first questions every player asks is whether they have to pay taxes on casino winnings? Well, you’re about to find out!

Taxes on Slot Machine Winnings in USA

In the USA, when a lucky player hits a jackpot, there’s the option of receiving the winnings in cash or check. In case it’s a large sum, it’s usually paid by check. However, the IRS only obliges the casinos to report winnings that are larger than $1,200.
Of course, all winners are obliged to show a proper identification— a valid ID or passport. When the casino checks for your identification they also look at your age to make sure you are officially and legally old enough to play. As the minimum legal age for gambling varies from state to state, be sure to check it out before you decide to play.

Do I Have to Report All Winnings?

All gambling winnings received from slot machines are subject to federal taxes, and both cash and non-cash winnings (like a car or a vacation) are fully taxable. Apart from slot machines, the same applies to winnings from lottery, bingo, keno, poker or other games of chance. So, if the amount won on a slot machine is higher than $1200, the casino is required to report it. In other words, all your gambling winnings have to be reported on your tax return as "other income" on Schedule 1 (Form 1040), line 8.

Slot Machine Winnings in W-2G Form

In case it happens to you and you snag that big win (which we hope one day you will), it’s useful to know that casino or other payer must give you a W-2G Form, listing your name, address and Social Security number. So, if the winnings are reported through a W-2G Form, federal taxes will be withheld at a rate of 25%.
If, however, you didn’t provide your Social Security number (or your Tax Identification Number), in that case the withholding will be 28%. Either way, a copy of your Form W-2G should be issued, showing the amount you won alongside the amount of tax withheld. One copy needs to go to the IRS, as well.
Aside from slot winnings, Form W-2G is issued to winners of the following types of gambling activities like:

bingo (for players who win $1,200 or more),
keno (for at least $1,500 worth wins)
poker tournament players (for the $5,000 win or more).
a horse track (if the winnings are 300x your bet)

However, not all gambling winnings are subject to IRS Form W2-G. For instance, W2-G forms are not required for winnings from table games like blackjack, baccarat, and roulette, whatever the amount. You’d still have to report your winnings to the IRS, it’s just you won’t need to do it through W-2G Form.

Are My Slot Losses Deductible?

The good news is that you can deduct your slot losses (line 28 of Schedule A, Form 1040), while the bad news is gambling losses are deductible only up to the amount of your wins. In other words, you can use your losses to compensate for your winnings. So, let’s say you won $200 on one bet, but you lost $400 on one or a few others, you can only deduct the first $200 of losses. Meaning if you didn’t win anything for a year, you won’t be able to deduct any of your gambling losses.
In order to prove your losses, you need to keep good records and have suitable documents. So, whenever you lose, keep those losing tickets, cancelled checks and credit slips. Your documentation must include the amount you won or lost, a date and time, type of wager, type of your gambling activity, name of each casino/address of each casino you visited and the location of their gambling business. You may as well list the people who were with you.

Do State and Local Taxes Apply Separately?

Yes, you are required to pay your state or local taxes on your gambling winnings. In case you travel to another state, and snag some huge winning combo there, that other state would want to tax your winnings too. But don’t worry, you won't be taxed twice, as the state where you reside needs to give you a tax credit for the taxes you pay to that other state.
Keep in mind though that some states like Connecticut, Massachusetts, and Ohio don't allow gambling losses.

Online Slot Taxes

Whether you usually spin the reels of your favourite casino games in land-based casinos in the US, overseas casinos, or online casinos, all income for the citizens of the US is taxable. As a US citizen, you are required to send Form W2G for all winnings from a slot machine (not reduced by the wager) that equals to or is more than $1,200.

Taxes on Slot Machine Winnings in UK

As a resident of the United Kingdom, your gambling winnings won’t be taxed. Unlike the USA mentioned above, you’ll be allowed to keep whatever it is that you have won and earned in Britain, even in case you are a poker pro. Then again, you won’t be able to deduct any losses you might collect.
It doesn’t really matter if you win £5 or £5 million playing online slots, your winnings will be tax-free as long as you reside anywhere in the UK, be that in England, Wales, Northern Ireland or Scotland.

Taxes on Slot Machine Winnings in Canada

If you are a recreational player who lives in Canada, we have good news for you. When it comes to gambling, you don't have to pay taxes as your winnings are totally tax free. According to laws in Canada, gambling activities don’t fall under the category of constant source of income, therefore your winnings will not be taxed.
Canadians don't even pay taxes on their lottery winnings. The only exception here are professional gamblers who make a living from betting and are, therefore, obliged to pay taxes. Keep in mind though, this is the current situation - laws in Canada change frequently, which may also include tax laws.

Taxes on Slot Machine Winnings in Australia

In case you reside in Australia and like to visit casinos from time to time, you’ll be happy to find out that your winnings in Australia will not taxed and here are 3 core reasons for that:

Gambling is not treated a profession (it's treated as a hobby)
The government doesn’t see profits from gambling activities as income, but as a result of good luck
The Australian government taxes casino operators and lottery organisers instead.

Of course, taxation varies from state to state.

Taxes on Slot Machine Winnings in New Zealand

Unlike in Australia, where even professional players can claim they are recreational, in New Zealand slot machine winnings (and any other winnings from casino games) are considered taxable income, in case the player has little income from other resources.
But, apart from professional gambling, it is very unusual for winnings to be taxed in New Zealand. Most often, gambling is considered recreational and not income, so players can enjoy their gameplay as they do not have to pay taxes on their winnings.

Part 1:https://www.reddit.com/nosleep/comments/ibnwx5/at_the_holy_grail_casino_you_gamble_with_a_lot/
My jaw dropped open and I took several short-circuited breaths as the head stopped just shy of my feet.
Honestly, I'm surprised I didn't scream or vomit. Next to me, Dallas was completely unfazed.
I had to get out of here. To hell with my finger, this was too much. I turned to leave, pushing my way through the crowd of people.
Nobody tried to stop me. Dallas didn't seem to react to my attempted departure either.
As I made it through the crowd, and began sprinting towards the exit, I heard a loud, deafening sound. The sound of a clock striking the next hour. A cacophony of excited murmurs ensued behind me as I made it to the unyielding doors.
"Let me out! I need to get out of here!" I banged desperately on the doors.
"You can't. Not right now." I heard Dallas say behind me.
"Why not?" I asked frantically, turning to face him.
"The Masters of the Casino are here. Gambling is compulsory until they leave."
"No," I weakly sobbed.
"You may as well try to win your finger back," Dallas said gently. "I'm going to play some poker. Care to join my table?"
I didn't want to play poker. I really didn't. While it was typically my game of choice, the present circumstances were far from typical. I was no longer protected by the one-bet-only rule now that I had played my first hand, and I knew that, with all the successive betting, my predicament could quickly get out of control if I played poker.
"No thanks man. I think I'll find a different game."
Dallas nodded.
I sighed, and, regaining my composure, descended the stairs. All around me, patrons were engaged in the now mandatory games - no longer was anyone leisurely sipping a cocktail or enjoying a cigar.
The only ones not gambling were the four entities in the middle of the floor. As I walked along the carpet, I got a better look at them. They were utterly terrifying, devoid of any discernable trace of humanity. At least, what little of them I could see was.
They were clad in identical, elegant robes, with their faces concealed by cowls. Inside those cowls, yellow eyes stared back at me. And while their lower extremities were completely concealed by their robes, inhuman, twisted hands protruded from their sleeves. They were gray and looked to be of an organic material, but in shape they resembled tree branches more than hands.
"Play." One of them hissed icily at me.
I quickly nodded, terrified, and settled on roulette. Even though I had shunned it earlier, I now felt it to be my safest option. For one thing, I could control the betting. I wouldn't have to contend with any extreme bets from the other patrons, and I could bide my time until this involuntary gambling ended.
I approached a wheel, nodding at the gaunt casino worker there.
"Your bet sir?" He asked calmly.
"A finger." I said hesitantly.
As the man nodded, I realized what luck this was. This roulette wheel had no numbers! I literally had a 50-50 shot of winning back my digits and being whole again. I had never heard of such a wheel, but I wasn't about to look a gift horse in the mouth.
"Black please." I said to the man.
"One finger on black," the man said as he set the game in motion.
I watched tensely as the ball rounded and slowed. Red. My heart sank.
More pain ensued as the man, much like that first dealer, removed my ring finger.
I cried out and fell to my knees. I struggled to get back up in between pained sobs. Gambling was still mandatory, and I did not want to anger those foul beings. I would just keep betting on black at the roulette wheel. Eventually I'd be whole again. It only took one win after all.
"Two fingers on black." I placed my bet.
"Very good sir." The Casino man said.
Red again. God fucking dammit.
More blinding pain. A pitiful, weak voice of mine bet four fingers through clenched teeth. Black.
It landed on black! Sweet merciful Jesus I was whole again!
Fascinated, I watched as the man procured four fingers from his coat pocket and somehow reattached them.
I gratefully rubbed my regenerated flesh as I left the wheel. If I could just blend in with the crowd until the Masters left, I would be in the clear. I could leave with my body whole and never return to this godforsaken place.
But I wouldn't get so lucky. After about ten minutes of attempting to be a wallflower, I was spotted by a poker dealer. I was clearly guilty of idling, and he knew it. I had two choices, he said. Play at his table or answer to the Masters.
I chose the former, and, as I sat down at the table, realized Dallas was there. And he was missing a hand.
It was just Dallas and one other when I joined, and this three player game quickly escalated. It was clear that this hand was all or nothing. Horrible as it was to be pitted against my friend, it was him or me. And damn straight I was choosing myself.
Soon, the betting had led to us all having, literally, our necks on the line. Somehow, I had ended up having my head on the line. Losing was not an option. It was no option for any of the three of us, but I was determined to win. But so was Dallas. And in his steadfast desire to live, he showed depths of depravity I would have never deemed him capable of.
"I'm upping the stakes. Death by immolation," Dallas proclaimed as the turn (for those who don't know, that's the fourth card in Texas Hold Em) was revealed.
I couldn't believe it, but the dealer blandly restated the bet as if nothing of note had happened.
"What the fuck Dallas?!" I screamed, completely shaken. "Death is already on the line!"
"I don't want to die buddy." Dallas said. "And I don't want you to die either. But, barring the unlikely event of a tie, two of us - and therefore you or I - will die after this hand. But there are many ways to die, and decapitation is much better than burning to death. If your cards are shit you need to seriously consider it. I feel pretty confident about my hand. How about you?"
I was terrified, both at Dallas' villainous monologue and the terrifying prospects that I faced. My nerves nearly failed. I very nearly folded and took the easy death (if you fold you forfeit what you have previously bet - in this case my head), but I called the bet with a quivering voice.
My nerves were apparently stronger than the third player. He sobbed at his dilemma before folding. Poor bastard. He was taken away from the table to be beheaded as the dealer prepared to reveal the river (the final card).
I braced myself. There were a couple things of note out of the four cards: three spades (possible flush for Dallas if he had two spades) and a ten. The ten was of note because I had two tens. Three of a kind would lose to a flush, but four of a kind would prevail and save my life.
After great inner suspense, the last card was revealed. I couldn't believe it! It was the ten! I was saved. My luck had saved me when it mattered the most.
"There's not much more to wager Dallas. I check." I said.
"Up to the Gods then? Fine." Dallas said, showing me a flush.
"Sorry Dallas. Four tens." I revealed my hand.
Dallas was shaking, hyperventilating even. I was too. I took no joy in my own survival. I was sorry then, and I still am.
I was sorry as I, along with many other spectators, watched Dallas get bound and set on fire. It should have been me there. I had hounded him incessantly into inviting me to the damn place. His agonized screams, and the smell of his burning flesh, will stay with me until the day I die - which probably won't be long.
As Dallas entered his death throes, the clock-like sound struck again - apparently signifying the end of the mandatory gambling period. We were free to leave. I was free to leave.
Dejected at the horrors I witnessed, and profoundly guilty at the hand I had in my friend's death, I began to mozy towards the exit - only to be stopped by some unseen force.
As many of the patrons filed out, the telekinetic force that had me in its grasp spun me around. I gasped. I was staring right at the Masters, and even though their faces were hidden, it was clear that they were angry with me.
"You...didn't play." One said accusingly.
My heart thumped rapidly as I said that I had played, and asked that I please be allowed to leave now.
"You didn't for a few minutes." Another one responded.
Shit. I was fucked.
"The Master Die." The first one said.
I watched in horror as on of them procured a large die and rolled it. By the looks of it, nothing nice was in store for me. I suppose the best description of the die I can offer is to say that it's similar to the one Bowser rolls if you land on his space in Mario Party 6.
But I digress. The die landed and my knees went weak.
"Fifty years of your life is forfeit as punishment." The Masters chimed. "Of course, feel free to try to win them back later."
I was sobbing. I was begging. But they were unmoved as they freed me from their supernatural grip. The next thing I remember is passing out on the red carpet, and waking up in my own bed.
I wanted to write it off as a bad dream so desperately, but I couldn't. First of all, I was dressed in the suit I had worn while gambling. My sweatpants and shirt were gone. Bad as that was, there was something much worse. Something that absolutely confirmed the worst.
Dallas had died under perplexing and seemingly downright impossible circumstances. There was no fire in his apartment, and nothing else was burned, yet his mysteriously charred corpse was discovered in his bed. Of course, I know why his corpse was charred. But I'm probably the only one.
But worst of all, I know my time is very limited. I don't know just how long I have, but it can't be long. I lost 50 years of life to those creatures. I'm 35 and still alive, so I would have lived to be at least 85. But how long after 85 would I have had? Maybe I'll die tomorrow, or the day after, or next year.
Or, if I'm lucky, maybe I'll have another 10 plus years. I'm living life knowing that every day could likely be my last. Loathe as I am to do so, I know my only hope is to go back to that awful Casino and win back my 50 years. I still have the medallion, and time is of essence. But I'm so afraid of going back there.
I'd better make a decision, lest I die without making peace.

If you're visiting Las Vegas for the first time or returning for another visit, then you're more than likely planning on doing a little bit of gambling along the way. The question is, do you want to increase your chances of winning money? Many people claim to gamble for the fun of it, and don't bother to learn any ways of improving their play or chances of winning. But who is to say that you can't take gambling more seriously and still have a lot of fun? We will take a look at some smart gambling tips that you can use on your next trip to Las Vegas to increase your chances of coming out ahead!
The first gambling tip is an easy one: Learn whatever games you plan to play. If you don't have any idea what you're doing at the table, your chances of winning are next to nothing! Your best chances of winning at any particular game in Las Vegas is 50/50, and that's only if you know the game perfectly. The areas where you lack knowledge of the game are sure to bring those odds crashing downward. Not only should you learn the basic concepts of the game, but also study the odds and math behind each of the most common bets to determine which bets are sucker bets and which are not. Vegas is full of sucker bets!
For example, if the dealer asks you if you would like to take "insurance" when playing blackjack, refuse it! When playing craps, instead of betting the Big 6 or Big 8 which pays even money, tell the dealer to "place" your money directly on the number 6 or 8 and you will be paid 7 for 6. Also, avoid the bets at the middle of the craps table! While these seem to be big winners, the odds are in the house's favor by over 15 percent! There are usually sucker bets in every game you will play, so be sure to do a little bit of research before playing.
Another major gambling tip is to always gamble within your "Bankroll," that is the amount of money you take with you to gamble. Don't walk up to a game with $200 and expect to walk away with $1000. Be smart, and think of it as an investment. If you walk up to a table with a particular amount of money, be happy if you end up with a 30 or 40 percent profit. Learn to have self-discipline and walk away while you are ahead without giving it all back to the casino. Also learn to walk away before you lose everything you take the table, as walking with something will leave you feeling much better than walking away broke.
Play at a table with limits that suit your bankroll. Don't go to Vegas with $500 to gamble and bet $50 per hand. Also, break your bankroll into smaller amounts which will allow you to have multiple "session" or periods of play. Break your $500 into 5 sessions of $100 and play at tables or games that allow you to bet within those limits. This gives you the greatest chance of making a profit and not going broke quickly.
Learn to follow the trends of gambling. We don't know why trends occur, but we can see them all over the casino. For example, 5 black numbers in a row on roulette. Or perhaps you've witnessed a "hot" craps table where the shooter is throwing one point after another. Take advantage of these trends by trying to recognize when one is taking place. Never bet against the trend, as most people instinctively do. Always bet with the trend, and be sure to recognize when the trend has ceased and get out while you're ahead!
These are just a few of the basic tips that should make your Las Vegas trip a little more enjoyable and hopefully more profitable. As we said earlier, you can take a game seriously and still have a lot of fun playing it! You're also sure to impress your friends when you use your knowledge and discipline to stay away from sucker bets and walk away when you're ahead. You'll have them wondering why you were the only one who made any money during that trip!

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As per usual, expect these things to change by the start of the new season, especially if a new forward is signed. As a guide, (?) means that the player is in the Manchester City squad but not in the game and (??) means that the player is a rumored signing for the Sky Blues.
TLDR: De Bruyne and maybe Foden if you are feeling spicy.
Goalkeepers:
Ederson (£6.0): Although the city stopper claimed his first golden glove for the club since Joe Hart, he still returned his lowest amount of FPL points last season. At 6.0, He is still a premium goalkeeper who will likely still face problems getting points unless a player like Koulibaly is signed. Key errors in games such as the Manchester United and Lyon illustrate that Ederson is not 100% trustworthy. However, a more direct approach from Guardiola can benefit Ederson in terms of potential assists.
Verdict: .5 too much, avoid for now but keep an eye out for him
Bravo (£4.5): Not sure why he is still in the game, he's going to be off in the summer
Verdict: Avoid
Steffen (£?): The U.S.A. international is set to return from his loan spell in the Bundesliga. Although he impressed throughout the season, Steffen will surely be #2 to Ederson in the pecking order throughout the season. He will likely be priced at around 4.5 as well but he will only have value if Ederson goes down with an injury
Verdict: Only viable if Ederson gets a long term injury
Defenders:
Walker (£6.0): Oh Kyle Walker. A great footballer in real life but provides questionable value regardless that he scored miles ahead of any other city defender. His spot in the starting 11 should be the most nailed on amongst outfield players next season. If City strengthens their defense, he will provide additional value with his clean sheets. A true lack of contribution in the final third hampers Walker's potential, but he will likely rank amongst the top-scoring defenders at City next season.
Verdict: Too expensive for his value due to his lack of end product. Avoid
Otamendi (£5.0): I bet most Manchester City fans already thought he left the club. Although he was the 2nd highest FPL scoring defender for City last year, expect him to put up a fat 0 points this season.
Verdict: Avoid!!!
Ake (£5.5) After Laporte's less than impressive game against Lyon in the Champions League, Ake has become a more intriguing prospect. That being said, the odds of him beating out the Frenchman to the starting left center-back position is unlikely, especially at the start of the new season. If Laporte happens to go down again with another injury, Ake would be a great player. It is also worth noting that Guardiola may deploy Ake at left-back and defensive midfielder throughout the season, but he will largely only serve a rotational purpose.
Verdict: Avoid for now
Mendy (£6.0): Perhaps one of the most overpriced players in the game. He recently lost his place in the starting 11 to an out of position Joao Cancelo. Mendy will likely only be a rotational left-back this season, splitting time with both Cancelo and Ake. Adding into account his injury risks and lack of consistency just makes this problem worse. Unless Mendy has a true breakout season, 6.0 is far too expensive for the leader of the Shark Team.
Verdict: Mostly likely avoid all season
Laporte (£6.0): The heart of our defense. Although he has a few bad games a season, he is by far the best defender at the club at this moment. An early injury ruled him out for several months and took away the possibility for a great season. This season, however, Laporte could prove to be an effective choice in the Man City backline. This is largely dependent on who will partner him come the start of the new season.
Verdict: Only for those with lots of faith in City's defending.
Fernandinho (£5.5): The ever-present Brazilian in the Manchester City lineup for the past few seasons may be taking a step back this season as additional competition complied with his aging limbs will likely deem Dinho fantasy irrelevant. The same price as Ake, I expect Dinho to play fewer minutes than his new teammate this season, although a greater proportion of them may be in midfield. For FPL, Dinho has never been a viable option. This season, I expect the trend to continue
Verdict: Only a lunatic would pick him.
Zinchenko (£5.5): Things do not look good for the Ukrainian rapper. Not only did he lose his spot to both Mendy and Cancelo, but additional competition in Ake (and in theory Angelino) will only help plummet Zinchenko's stock. As a traditional midfielder, Zinchenko may prove to have value if he gets loaned out to another team should they choose to play him further up the pitch. As for now, I wouldn't place my bets on Zinchenko to have value this season.
Verdict: Look out for a potential loan.
Cancelo (£5.5): Joao Cancelo. The right-back turned left-back that only recently has proven to be trusted by Pep Guardiola. Not trusted enough, however, to avoid extra competition with the signing of Ake. I expect Cancelo to start the season for Manchester City at left-back barring any new left-back signings, but I am skeptical of his ability to put up points for our fantasy teams.
Verdict: Risky and expensive differential
Garcia (£5.0): Before the news broke out that Garcia has desires to go back to Barcelona, I believed that the future looked bright for the young Spaniard. Garcia started in most of Manchester City's games following the resumption of the league and although he had to be babysat by Laporte in those games, he showed enough for me (and Pep) to rate him over Stones, Otamendi, and Dinho at that position. Should City fail to sign another center-back, they will likely refuse to sell him to Barcelona this transfer window. If so, he would have great potential at 5.0.
Verdict: Solid investment if City keep him + Don't buy Koulibaly/Other CB
Stones (£5.0): I won't go too in-depth on this one. Stones' City career is likely coming to an end unless they decide to sell Garcia and keep Stones as their 4th center back. Even so, he wouldn't produce much value. If Stones goes to another top half team in England, he could have some potential. A loan move to Arsenal could be best for both the Gunners and the Sky Blues.
Verdict: Only viable if he gets a move to another top half Prem side.
Angelino (£?): Quick special mention to Angelino, who will likely leave the club this summer.
Verdict: Avoid
Koulibaly (£??): Technically not a City player, but after City's disappointing loss to Lyon, he should surely be a Sky Blue this transfer window. If so, he could provide value along-side Laporte. At 6.0 Koulibaly would stabilize City's defense and probably play more minutes than Laporte next season. As a result, he would likely be one of City's highest-scoring defenders.
Verdict: Depends on transfer and price
Midfielders:
De Bruyne: (£11.5): The first name on my FPL team. De Bruyne scored the most points amongst all players last season and is still priced less than some of them. The Belgian midfielder has been wonderful in his time at the Etihad and his attacking returns should only continue to be magnificent next season. With more determination than ever, and possibly another striker to assist, De Bruyne should offer amazing value next season. If you can only find room for one City player, make it KDB.
Verdict: Immense value, easy pick.
Sterling (£11.5): Sterling, if he could stay consistent, would have been the highest-scoring play in FPL last year. After an amazing start to the season, Sterling lost his form. Now with Sane gone and only a young Ferran Torres in to replace him, Sterling has more responsibility on his shoulders than ever before. His recent form and insane miss against Lyon may raise some red flags about the Englishman, but he should still provide the 2nd move value amongst City midfielders next season.
Verdict: Less value for money than KDB, but keep an eye out for how he starts the season
Mahrez (£8.5): Another player who gets trapped in Pep Roulette. Mahrez played brilliantly last season but with the emergence of Phil Foden (who likes to play out wide) and the signing of Ferran Torres, Mahrez may see another significant cut into his minutes next season. Should he start the season strong, however, he may be able to nail down a spot in Guardiola's team for the first few game weeks.
Verdict: Risky differential
Bernardo (£7.5): After his breakout season in 2018/19, hopes were high for Bernardo Silva. This season, however, he failed to impress and was largely omitted from the starting 11 for the games following the resumption of the league, including crucial Champions League games. With his desire to stay at Manchester City made public, Bernardo can offer amazing value-for-money if he can hit the ground running next season. The absence of David Silva now opens up the possibility of Bernardo playing centrally more often, which can only benefit the Portuguese international.
Verdict: Great potential but Pep doesn't seem to trust him in big games
Rodrigo (£5.5): Defensive midfielders never really provide great value in FPL.
Verdict: Avoid
Foden (£6.5): The English wonderkid that took the Premier League by storm following the resumption of the league looks set to fight for his chance to play consistent minutes. His start in the crucial second leg against Real Madrid further proves that Pep has confidence in the young man. If he can nail down a spot, either centrally or out on the wings, Foden can easily be the best asset to own given his price. Ambitious managers looking for a differential may look Foden's way, but that largely depends on what happens between now and the start of the season.
Verdict: Could be the gem of the season, although he could also largely spend time on the bench.
Gundogan (£5.5): See Rodrigo
Doyle (£4.5): Tommy Doyle is an exciting young prospect but he is a few seasons away from a real impact on the first team.
Verdict: Avoid
Torres (£7.0): Although he has been priced relatively cheaply for a City winger, I would urge caution with it comes to the Spaniard. Guardiola will most likely use the same approach he did when bringing Sane to the squad in that he will only really fully integrate the player after the end of the 2020/2021 season. If there was no redraft every year, Torres would be a good pick, but for this upcoming season, he shouldn't have much value.
Verdict: Wait for 2021/22 season
Braaf (£?): Braaf may be implemented into the game later this season, but he will likely fail to have any value once he is in. Along with Torres and Doyle, Braaf is one to watch out for a few seasons down the line.
Verdict: Wait a few seasons
Forwards:
Jesus (£9.5): A whole million cheaper than Aguero, Jesus offers a potential entryway into the City attack. However, I believe that there are better options given his price tag and his rotational with Aguero (or another striker) will likely hinder any breakout season for the Brazilian. If Jesus can improve on his end product, he will have value. As for now, however, it seems too risky to pick him given all the transfer rumors surrounding a new city striker.
Verdict: Keep an eye on him, but avoid for now.
Aguero (£10.5): Every year, Aguero scores an absurd number of goals given his fitness problems and rotation with Jesus. That being said, Aguero may face additional competition if City sign another forward. With 12 months left on the Argentine's contract, this may be the last season we have the forward in the game. In my opinion, his pricing makes him a huge risk this season, although I'm sure he would love to prove me wrong!
Verdict: Club favorite, but may not be an elite FPL option anymore for that price.
Messi (£??): Just kidding. Unless...
Thanks for taking the time to look at my guide, I will be updating it over time throughout pre-season. I would greatly appreciate it if you could either upvote or leave a comment with some feedback as this is my first ever preseason guide. If you disagree with any of my comments, send me a message as I would love another viewpoint on this.

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