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Been playing a ton of Big O through a club that utilizes Pokerrrr2 and wanted to start a strategy discussion page, since the most common thing I hear is “wait for the nuts” 😂
What are some leaks in your game you are trying to plug? How do you play mediocre aces deep OOP? How do we properly range folks who limp 100% of hands they enter the pot with?
I’ll start with a couple things I’ve noticed:

1. Position is the most important part of the game, and the only way to possibly bluff in multi-way pots (and most of them go 4-5 ways) is to be last to act.
   
2. Nut blockers to the flush are far more important than nut blockers to straights and wheels, given the 5 card versus 4 card nature of the game.
   
3. ABC players always have it when they bet. Like ALWAYS. One leak I’ve plugged is paying off rocks with mediocre boats and flushes when they bet on the river in sizable pots. You figure “at some point, they have to show up with the naked ace or top trips, or a busted wrap.” But nope, they always have it. Like when the backdoor flush gets there and they donk pot into you on the river. Yup. They have it. Fold.
   
4. In most situations, I’ve stopped playing hands where I can’t make a wheel. Hands like A678Q and A77910 are almost impossible to play post-flop unless you flop boats, nut flushes, and quads. QJ1023 is something with much much more playability that doesn’t cause headaches. The only time I’ll play something mediocre is when I can get heads up IP with someone who plays their hands face up.
   
5. You’ve gotta be able to fold the naked A2 - bad players will never do it, and exploit them for it. This is where the money is made. For example, AKQJ2 on 368. Unless you’re the aggressor heads up IP, this is a fold when any kind of money goes in OTF.
   
6. Run equity calculators for every spot you find yourself getting in against perceived ranges and understand how much actual equity you have with things like wraps/FD against made hands on different streets, and push aggression appropriately. Review hands histories and uncover spots you should have pushed but instead flatted despite having the proper odds to get it in.
   

These are just some of the things I’ve been working on in my Big O game. Let’s hear yours!

9 months ago I started playing poker, I was aware of the risk and decided not to spend more than 20$ by playing micro and slowly learning the game. BUT, I then got addicted to the game.
I played for a couple of months without losing or winning big amounts, then I started platying while drinking (ye, addictions..) and without much focus. Long story short: I ended up losing aroung 150$. It wasn't an issue as I have a salary, but the impact on my humor was HUGE. I was losing. I felt like a total idiot. That started to impact other sides of my life and I started to dodge social events to play more.
At that point I started analysing my games, reading more books and learning more theory. I played micro for another couple of months and ended up winning 80$ playing consistenly (in my virtual bankroll I was then at -70$). I was feeling good, I worked hard to regain half of what I lost so far. But one day -out of the blue- the disaster: I got drunk, I joined an high stakes table, I allin'd my KK, I lost 230$. Here we go, at -300$, I can say I become slighly depressed and stopped played for 15 days. I didn't share that with anyone and felt so sad and stupid about my behaviour at the tables. The bad beat was real and obsessive.
At that point my 0 to 300$ challenge started. I decided to get serious, to play sober and to step-up my games. In the last 4 months I got a +300$ by just playing 1c/2c and some 2c/5c NL. I never gambled more, most of my hands I respected the opponents and played my odds decently, I stopped thinking that I NEEDED to recover money. I spend a lot of hours at the tables and read/watched tons of poker contents. When I hit +300 I felt like a gained some freedom, it was more than relief.
The amount of money of my poker story is ridicoulos, I know. But what I wanted to share is different. I had the worst possible approach: for months I played to recover money, to gamble and get to the result by some shortcuts. I now realized that it's better to think to poker like a sport and I should deinitely play the game to enjoy the situtations, the calculations, odds size, bet patterns, the trash talking of the donk that just lost his all-ins and the flush draw at the river.
I feel happy to finally share my small story with the community. If you are in my situation, please try to get some discipline, stop getting obsessed by what you won or what you lost, and try to love the game instead of the money behind it.
(english is not my native language, apologies)
TLDR: I lost 300$ on a drunk night and I then learned discipline and proper BR management. I wanted to share the story with the community since I never told it to anyone else.
EDIT: Thank you all for the comments. It really makes me feel less isolated!

I played in a $100 tournament with a 5k guarantee on Saturday and I ran into a player that I could only describe as the "omega fish." This guy somehow managed to be both an agro donk AND a calling station all at once. It actually lead to an interesting spot in which I'm looking for some feedback. Thanks in advance poker.
It's level 3 and we're playing insanely deep at this point. This was a super-stacked tournament where the starting stack was 200BB and there was an addon available for an additional starting stack after the first hour. This means that, going into the third level, the average stack in the room is over 100BB. At the start of this play this hand I have around 90k chips, good for ~111BB. Fish has something like 60k.
Blinds 400/800, no antes. Folds to Hero in the HJ who looks down at KdQh. Raise to 2k. Fish in CO calls. BB (a thinking reg who actually deals at this casino) calls.
Flop (pot 6400): JT9r. BB checks, Hero bets 2k, Fish in HJ calls, BB folds.
I know this is a very unorthodox sizing. On a flop like this one, I'm supposed to c-bet less frequently and to a much bigger sizing and, having flopped the nuts, I'm supposed to want to get as much value as possible here. However, I took an unusual line here for 2 reasons. First, as mentioned previously, the fish in the CO was somehow equal parts agro donk and calling station. So I knew that he would call too wide no matter what I bet, but I also had reason to suspect that he would see the small bet as weakness and come over the top with random bullshit. I also suspected that, if the fish called and the BB actually hit something, he might try to squeeze and iso the fish. I got the sense that he and I both knew that fish in the hand was a complete station and so the reg in the BB would expect me to bet bigger with a made hand. Did I level myself into losing value on this street or did I take a calculated risk and get unlucky twice?
Turn (pot 10,400): 7 completing the rainbow. Board is now JT97r. Hero checks, Fish bets 6k, Hero flats.
Cool...the turn brings a 4-liner to a straight. I decide to check it over to the fish. I feel like, if he just hit a straight, he's going to bet his straight. If he didn't, he's likely to interpret a small bet on the flop and a check here as weakness and start bluffing. The fish obliges me with a 60% pot bet. I don't want to raise yet because I still want to milk this guy. I have the nuts and it is pretty unlikely that I will not have the best hand on the river. I elect to flat. I feel like I can get more value by going for 2 bets on the river instead of going for 2 bets on the turn. Is this the wrong approach here?
River (Pot 22,400): K. Board is now JT97K (suits irrelevant). Hero?
Pretty unfortunate river card. I no longer have the nuts, though it's hard to imagine I'm beaten. Would my opponent really just flat AQ pre, then flat the flop then bet the turn with AQ? I guess anything is possible but I would say it's pretty damn unlikely. The bigger issue here is that this card puts a 4-liner to the high end of the straight on board. We're chopping a lot of the time now and it's going to be a hell of a lot harder to get value from a 2-pair hand or the low end of the straight now that the high end has completed. I think my only hope to get value here is to hope my opponent has the low end of the straight or to hope that he does something retarded as hell and tries to bluff me. Against a passive fish I would bet big for sure. Against an aggro fish I would probably bet small or check to try and induce him. What do I do when my opponent is both of those things?
What do you think poker? Bet big for max value? Bet small to induce? Check to induce? What's the play?

I'm a sit and go grinder. But on a whim I decided to play 1/3 live at my local casino last night. It was the 1st time I played live in 1.5 years.
Cash games really aren't my forte, in fact I'm pretty bad. Especially against super aggressive opponents who bet/raise all the time. Which is why I found this particular hand frustrating.
It folds to CO who limps (300$ behind)
BU limps (150$ behind)
Hero raises to 15$ in SB with JcJs (280$ behind)
BB 3bets to 25$ (800$ behind)
BU and Hero call
Flop is 9hTd5d
I donk for 3/4 pot (50$)
BB 2x raises to 100$
BU folds
Hero folds
​
So, the BB had clearly been drinking all night, he may or may not have been drunk, and his PFR stat was at least 30-40%, if not more. He was also raising his BB and any straddles he made 90% of the time. Additionally, he was betting flop and turn relentlessly, especially when he was PFR and/or when checked to. He very rarely folded the flop or turn, and when he did he would usually fold out of turn just to be done with the hand as soon as possible.
Lastly, he bombed the pot or raised heavy or raised all in post flop about 6 times while I was there. 4 times he had 2 pair or better (mainly flushes), 2 times he was semi-bluffing with bottom pair and a flush draw. Also the BU was limping/calling 80% of hands easy and then folding flop like 90% of the time. Which the BB was def abusing
It bugs the absolute shit out of me because of how aggressively this guy was playing, and the likelyhood I got bluffed off the pot with trash, but at the same time, what does JJ beat on that board aside from air?? I had a tight image at the table, so it's certainly possible he was 3betting light preflop with a small pair or a weak suited A to force a fold. As I said, he raised his BB 90% of the time, but this was the 1st time I saw him 3bet anything pre.
The reason I donked was bc JJ felt very vulnerable and I wanted to fold out any overcards that could outdraw me like AK or KQsuited. And, as dumb as this sounds, I wasn't expecting the raise vs my donk. Most people either fold/call to donks. But when he min raised me, it kind of set off some alarms, and that's when it occured to me that I don't just lose to AA, KK, and QQ, but also TT, 99, 55, and 9Tsuited, which could all be in a BB 3-bet range vs SB/BU.
The way the hand played out, it really felt like he had QQ+ which is why I reluctantly folded.
The only other option I could see myself taking would be to check flop and then either call or raise his flop bet, which he was 100% making.
But if I called then he was 100% double barrelling the turn, and then I'd have to be ok with going all in. Same with check/raising the flop.
So it was basically all in on the flop/turn or fold the hand.
I'm looking at the percentages on flopzilla now (I think I am doing this right???), and if he was 3-betting a tighter range of 99+, AKo with a diamond, and AKs of diamonds, which are all hands he could raise on the flop, then he's ahead 63% to our 37%
If he's 3betting light with any pair, any suited A, ATo-AKo, 89s-8Ts, 9Ts-K9s, JTs-KTs, QJs-KJs, and KQs preflop, and then post flop raising a pair of 5's or better, 2 pairs, sets, straight draws, AKo with a diamond, and any other non-backdoor flush draws, then we're ahead 57% to his 43%.
Now that I'm going over all the combos and evaluating percentages, I think I prolly should have just check/called the flop and either shoved or folded the turn depending on how big he bets and depending on if an Ace, King, or diamond hit since those are way better for his range than mine.
I do feel a little better about folding though since even against a wide 3betting range it's almost a coinflip.
Pretty sure I just answered my own question but if anyone here came to different conclusions or calculated different percentages please feel free to share! I'm still figuring out how to work flopzilla and how to play post flop, so I would love to hear your input!
edit: there were 2 diamonds on the flop. Not 2 hearts.

I've been a member of this sub for about a year now. I've noticed that pretty much all of the hand histories from lollivepoker are at low stakes. Lets just knock this fucker out of the park with a mega thread. Feel free to add anything, questions comments queries or theories.
How to beat lollivestakes (1/2 and 2/5). Yes we should be 3 betting AKs. Yes most of you (hopefully) already know this shit.

• Keeping track of action. Important step to crushing poker obv. I like to think of every hand as a 4 column Excel graph. Aggressor, raiser(if), bet, callers. Then I keep a running tab that closes after PF and each street after. This allows you to easily (read:quickly) keep track of action and not tank for two minutes while you wonder who led the flop. It may feel awkward at first but this is how I do it and it is second nature now. Others may have other methods of keeping track of betting that can stop you from looking like a dumbass while you twiddle your thumbs and slow down the game.
  
• Pot size. This is obvious as fuck. If you've ever stared at the pot and thought "wow that is a shit load of chips" you are 100% doing it wrong. You should know the amount in the pot at every given moment for obvious reasons. Any PLO players can vouch for me that keeping track of PSBs becomes completely second nature after a while to the point that I know the size of pots even in hands that I am not playing. This is useful as fuck. A way that I practiced this and pot odds is to keep track of the pot size and calculate what odds and sizing you are laying with a PSB, half pot, overbet etc. You get the point. Keep track of the pot size. I think a big step in my game was seeing odds instead of just thinking "holy fuck that is a big bet". Simple?
  
• Pacing. This is obvious for multiple reasons. The main one being that nobody likes people who play slowly. It also helps with table image, nobody likes playing with somebody they think is some autistic savant whose using his PhD to play a card game. They wanna play with the guy who is drinking smoking cussing gambling. Easy to bypass this. It's called ready golf. I gamble a lot on the golf course. But I always seem like I don't give a fuck and never take forever. I drink, I smoke and keep the fish hooked. Because every hole I'm making a plan from the beginning. Where is a good miss? Lay up? Pin placement? These are all part of the plan before I tee off. This is important because it allows me to play quickly and not annoy others by taking fucking forever every shot. You should be approaching poker the same way. Whether it be LOLLIVEREADS, betting patterns, position you name it. These should all be running through your head to make a road map of the different ways this hand could go. Figure your pacing out. If you are stunned that he donked the flop and you have to spend 25 seconds reevaluating you are doing it wrong. You should already have been thinking that through, you should not do all of your thinking when the action is on you. You need to be thinking the whole hand so that when it's on you it doesn't look like you are thinking the whole hand. Also, fast pace of play is just better for the game. Live is slow enough.
  
• Rake. Take it into account. Remember that the only person who always wins at poker every time is the house. There are games out there that the rake makes unbeatable. Don't think you are above this. Educate yourself.
  
• Tanking. Don't fucking tank. If you are scared of getting a couple C notes in ahead you aren't rolled for live poker. No decision in live low stakes requires minutes of mulling over. Period. Unless you need the money for Similac, I think you will live if you get sucked out on.
  
• Table image / getting action. Don't be a dweeb. That shot of Jameson isn't going to fucking kill you. Don't talk about money politics or religion. Nothing good is gonna come of it, even if you are jacking each other off about how Trump throws rocks at minorities. At best someone will disagree with you or like you less. At worst you'll get a sob story about some bitch wife who took everything in the divorce. Either way. Also, lie about your job, be a account executive or some shit. I HATE giving action to poor people. If you are a (part time) scheister lawyer like me, don't tell people that. I've had a lot of different jobs. A small amount of social skills will help you read the situation. For the love of God, do not say you are a professional poker player. If you are a pro player sitting in 300 max 1/2 I am going to laugh at you, not just for saying that you are a professional poker player while playing poker, but in general.
  
• Hygiene and food. Shower, you fucking animal. Do not eat or order food that smells strongly. I hate eating at the table and I hate sitting next to somebody who is eating, ESPECIALLY if I can smell the food. Obviously this isn't against the rules so go for it but at least show some common courtesy and order something that doesn't reek. This next part is mainly for HIGH STAKES BALLERS. Don't fucking bring your backpack full of snacks and goodies to the casino. You look like a fucking nerd. And you're at a casino with restaurants, and waiters. When you bring a backpack full of your pre made tupperware lunch and power bars it becomes pretty apparent to the fish/whales that you aren't just there to throw some cards around. Get it together you fucking idiots, it should already be shameful enough that we spend a large amount of time in a depressing as fuck casino, you shouldn't feel the need to add to that by bringing mommy's brown bag lunch you underdeveloped leech.
  
• How to win (read: the point). If you can't beat 1/2 and 2/5 you are impatient. This will probably be the shortest segment. If you have a good table image and talk about baseball and hookers or whatever, NOBODY at those stakes is gonna notice you are folding a ton of hands OOP and playing/defending position aggressively/leading. Only run bluffs against scared money (nits, women, etc.). Value. Value. Value. No fancy play. Before you get on your high horse about LOLLIVEPLAYERS, remember that the majority of poker players are there to have FUN. And don't care how good they are. They aren't jaded cynical assholes like the majority of HIGH STAKES BALLERS I know who leech off the happy patrons of the casino. If you can't beat live low stakes you are impatient, that is all. If playing straight forward, ABC, winning poker is boring for you that's okay. That means you just like gambling. I do too. If I had to play ABC poker 1/2 100BBs deep for more than a hour I'd be running not walking to the nearest gun store or bridge. Cheers!
  
• Mixed Games. I have to pimp mixed games cause they are the shit and my thing. But also I think it is weird to call yourself a poker player and only know how to play NLHE. They are also useful for game selection. Sometimes NLHE isn't the game that has the most dead money. I've had massive sessions at limit with kill and I guarantee some of the ridiculously bad play I've seen at Omaha8 would put pride in the hearts of the biggest fish at your local 1/2 game. Remember, this is about making money. You like money right? If you follow these steps you too can probably make the same amount of money I made waiting tables at a fancy restaurant in high school!
  
• Flipping. Do it. It's neutral EV and makes people think you aren't a nit bitch. You need people to give action to make money. I don't give action to people who turn down straddles and flips. Just don't trust them. Like people who don't drink. if you are in LA/Vegas I'd be happy to show you how a true flipping professional can dust off a few Gs in the span of a couple PLO flips. It'll all even out in the long run, right? Law of large numbers or something or other.
  

Feel free to add to this or tell me to fold pre.

This is one of those fights I did a very quick tape study for. You can look at 1 minute of Pereira's fighting and understand exactly what his style is, and the basic characteristics of his fighting. Roberts is a fighter I already knew generally, and just went to look at his KO over Enkamp as a general refresher of a good performance, and skimmed the first round of his Perry fight.
​
Michel Pereira is a wild man who has been fighting cans. I enjoyed watching his most recent fight, and if you want a legitimate laugh, check it out here. It's like watching Gabby Garcia fight old ladies, or eating candy. It's a bit of fun, but offers no real substance technique wise. I'll show you a couple of gifs that lay out some essential elements, but i'm not going to waste my time actually breaking him down in detail.
​
The only thing I noted after watching that fight was the Pereira likes to crash forward with long powerful strikes, and he is at his best when he is moving forward, but he is really bad at bringing his weight back. So he can crash, but once he crashes he is either defensively unsound and slow as he bounces back out of range, or he smothers himself on you and reverts to throwing arm punches and going crazy.
Look here at the punches he threw AFTER his initial long right hand (GIF). Any donk can throw a long 2, but if you fall forward and that is your next best technique, smothered retard punches, that tells us a lot about how good you actually are at striking.
Remember he is fighting pure cans here, this is like breaking down Chuck Lidell's bag work before the Tito 3 fight. If you look bad on the bag (can), then lord knows what you'll look like vs. a resisting opponent.
​
Trust me, you want to click this (GIF). That looks funny, and possibly cool to some, and it is. But it's so unbelievably stupid that it tells you about what goes through his mind in fights. Check this one out too, it's equally, if not more hilarious (GIF). Ok, so he is flipping and doing stupid shit. Think about what he could've achieved with one fifth that much energy if he actually used good technique. Threw the guys legs to the side and dropped a massive right hand on him. Instead he choses to do i don't know what the fuck and waste a huge amount of energy. I get it's a can, and he knows that too, but it still tells us something.
​
Once again, look how hard he falls forward with this 1-2 (GIF). You might see him as this big, athletic power threat. Some dynamic crazy KO machine. But the reality is that he is just good lunging forward with the 2. Everything outside of that is shit. Also he had a recent KO loss where he basic just quit, showing no heart and certainly no durability. He is a glass cannon that only shoots pink dildos.
​
Roberts
​
The only technical question I had of Roberts when I went to look at his tape was of his ability to reactively bounce out of range. Meaning, I see you wind up, I bounce out. How fast can he do it? How much range can he cover doing it? That's basically all he needs to avoid the big 2 of Pereira, and once he avoids that everything else is shit, as we saw. Though I hope his coaches are training for the backflip guard pass...
So here is the first time I saw it and that was basically a wrap on the tape (GIF). I just wanted to make sure he didn't respond to forward aggression by hunkering down, maybe like a pure Thai guy would. Unless something insane happens, that should be enough to get him out of the way.
As much as i'd love to break down Danny and his style, there is no point here. This took me longer to type out, despite 0 pauses and time for consideration, than it took to watch what I needed to see and formulate my understanding of this contest.
​
Prediction
​
I think Danny is going to land the lead 2. The typical southpaw vs. orthodox, get the foot on the outside, smash the 2 down the middle. If he doesn't land that he's going to fake it and come upstairs with a head kick. I expect that Pereira is going to try and force action and chaos, because that is his only path to victory, so expect him to come out spazzing and charging early. If he doesn't walk onto the counter 2 he will tire out, and Danny will get him in the second.
Danny won't be looking to meet fire with fire, he probably tries to kick the and legs work a calculated, careful range while Pereira burns himself out telegraphing high energy, worthless technique. He will then ramp us his lead as Pereira fades. I'd also recomend taking advantage of Pereira's over extension by getting the clinch and working him on the cage. Slow the pace down, don't give him his only comfortable range and make the fight about technique.
​
I haven't looked at Danny enough to know what threat he can pose with the wrestling, but if he can take Pereira down there will be ample opportunities, and he could finish from top position. From a vague memory he got David Zawada down a few times, and that is a legit TD compared to this Michel Muppet.
​
Still need to look a little more at Danny if I am going to bet this fight. Mainly wrestling and how he fatigued under a fast early pace, but I have no respect for Michel's skills and game. Will comment on the betting of this fight later in the week.

Hey everyone, total donk noob here.
You know the Daniel Negreanu Masterclass you keep getting advertisements for? Well I purchased it, and in one chapter Daniel describes the formula for calculating fold frequency right after introducing Pot Odds. As I understand it, if someone bets 1/4 pot in a 100 chip pot, the pot odds are 4:1 (20%), and the fold frequency is 1/5 (20%). What is the difference between these two concepts, are they just different ways of saying the same thing? Because they seem to yield the same information.

Bored and don't feel like studying for finals so thought I'd take some time and explain the difference between Sklansky Dollars and Galfond Bucks. Here's Galfond's original post, but it can get a little complicated so hopefully this more condensed version that compares the two with some basic examples is a little easier to understand.
SKLANSKY DOLLARS
Sklansky $ is essentially how much you can expect to win from a pot based on your equity in the hand at that current point in time. In other words, it's your EV for AI situations. Formula:

• Sklansky $ = (total pot * equity) - last call amount

Ex) Effective stacks are $100. Villain is a massive donk & decides to shove pre with KTs because he "saw Negreanu make that move on TV once!" Hero wakes up with KK and snap calls. Board runs out 256TT and Villain scoops the pot. What are our Sklansky $ for this play?
Step 1: Determine your equity when the money went in.

• KK vs. KTs = 85.5% vs. 14.5%

Step 2: Multiply your equity (in decimal format) by the total size of the pot (i.e. find the % of the pot you had equity for).

• 0.855 x $200 = $171

Step 3: Subtract the final call amount from our "$ equity" in the pot.

• $171 - $100 = $71 - Even though we lost 100 real dollars, we "won" 71 Sklansky dollars by making the right play here.

GALFOND BUCKS (G-BUCKS) Galfond came up with this concept that builds off of Skalnsky $. The problem with Skalnsky $ is that they require you to put Villain on exactly 2 cards, which is pretty impossible in the middle of a hand, thus G-Bucks are considered a little more practical. G-Bucks determine how much you would have won/lost by comparing the equity of your hand against a range of hands, instead of against a specific hand
Step1: Narrow down Villain's range as much as possible. Step 2: Plug your hand into an equity calculator and work out your equity vs. his range. Step 3: Multiply the size of the pot by your % of equity to determine how much you should expect to win/lose on average in certain spots.
Ex1) Effective stacks are $100. It folds to Villain in the SB who shoves for $100 because "my coach TrueShak told me this was a good play!" Hero looks down at AKo in the BB. From previous experience with Villain, we know that he's doing this with any pocket pair or 2 broadway cards. Hero decides to call. Villain turns over AA, board doesn't improve, and Villain scoops the pot again. Did we make a +EV play by calling here?

• Villain's range: 22+, JT+, QT+, KT+, AT
• Our equity vs. his range: 58.9%
• $200 x 0.589 = $117.8 G-Bucks
• According to G-Bucks, this was a good call where we profit $17.8 on average. However, if we had calculated this with Sklansky Dollars, we would have ended up with -$86.2 Skalnsky Dollars.

NOSEBLEED EXAMPLE) Hero just won the Sunday Millions, decided to leave his wife and kids behind and move to Macau like the true degen he is. Effective stacks are $100,000 and Hero is on the BTN. Action starts with Durr UTG, who raises to $3,000. Folds to Hero who looks down at AQo and calls, blinds both fold. Now let's just pretend for a second Durr is playing standard TAG by betting his draws and never slowplaying. Flop comes Q45 rainbow, Durr bets $4,000 into a pot of ~$7,000 and Hero calls. Turn is a 9 to complete the rainbow, Durr bets $10,000 and Hero calls. River is another 9, making no flush draws possible on the board. The pot is now $35,000 and Durr overbets $50,000 because Jungleman just walked into the room and apparently Durr has an appointment he forgot about so needs to leave quickly. Does Hero call here?
Durr's range:

• Pre: 22+, broadway cards, connectors
• Flop: standard c-bet that doesn't really narrow his range down
• Turn: assuming he would check back a pair for pot control, we can assume he has a strong hand (2P+) or is semi-bluffing with a straight draw
• River: the overbet means he either has a really strong hand or absolutely air from a busted draw

We can now assume Villain's range consists of:

• Busted straight draws (23s, 23o, 67s, 67o)
• Made hands (Q4, Q5, 45, QQ, 44, 55) - this is assuming 9x isn't in his range since the nines didn't come til the turn/river

Our equity vs. Durr's range: 61.7% $135,000 pot * 0.617 of our equity = $83,295 G-Bucks, meaning we earn on average $33,295 G-Bucks (83,295 - last bet size) by making this call here, so it is a +EV play.
Maybe this is old news to some of you but I think most can learn a little something off this on their way to becoming "Galfond billionaires" as he puts it. :)

I'm posting this for two reasons. (1) To get it off my chest, and (2) to warn both those who are new to poker, and those who aren't, but might have the same problem I do and not even realize it. I don't want sympathy.
Hi, my name is Tom and I'm a gambling addict. That's how I introduce myself lately -- mostly at GA meetings.
I'm 25 years old. 2 years ago I was running my own successful business, had a gorgeous fiancee, had a big apartment in a trendy neighborhood with a nice car, a huge collection of records, musical instruments, artwork, and a thriving social life. I discovered and fell in love with poker two years ago.
Since then, a lot of things have happened:

• My business went under
  
• All of my belongings, some of which held tremendous sentimental value, have been sold.
  
• I became essentially homeless
  
• My fiancee left me
  
• All of my friends and family stopped talking to me
  
• I tried to commit suicide and failed, ending up in a mental institution for a brief period.
  

As you can see, that's a lot of terrible shit to happen in such a short period of time. And it all started after I began playing poker. Now, I don't blame poker. I used to, but not anymore. It's not poker that led me here. It's my decisions and actions.
The reason I want to warn you, using myself as an example, is because I sometimes see younger poker players exhibiting the same flawed tendencies and logic that I had when my life went to shit.
I'm not addicted to drugs or alcohol. I didn't come from a broken home. No one in my family has a history of addiction. I'm from an affluent background. I'm college educated. I didn't get hooked to sports betting, table games, slots, or scratch-offs...
And I used all of those facts constantly, to delude myself into believing that I didn't have a problem.
I didn't just mindlessly donk off all my chips either. I studied poker relentlessly from the moment I became fascinated with the game. I read books upon books, immersed myself in twoplustwo, analyzed my hand histories, tried to eliminate my leaks -- I could go on and on. The point I'm making is that even if you're smart about playing and take it seriously, an addict is still an addict. The reason I lost everything playing poker is relatively simple: I used NO bankroll management, constantly took shots, and relentlessly chased my losses.
And I was delusional. I was a total degen fish, and thought that just because I knew how to thin value bet, calculate pot odds, balance my range, adjust my game etc. that all of my losing was just exceptional bad luck. But any decent poker player plays within their bankroll -- and I did not.
I've since stopped playing poker. I self-excluded from my favorite sites and casinos, I go to GA meetings on a regular basis, and now I'm doing okay. I live in a shitty basement apartment and work 80 hours a week at a shitty minimum wage job, but I'm okay now. I'll never be able to play poker again, and I've come to accept that. Stability is everything to me now, and I find myself feeling healthier and healthier -- both physically and mentally. Opening up a two-week paycheck only to see $800 is a bummer. But it's a way, way worse feeling to go to the casino with two grand and leave 12 hours later, knowing you won't have anything to eat when you get home.
I had to discover my addiction the hard way. If you stray from the limits your bankroll allows and find yourself pawning shit and borrowing money, I beg of you: take a step back and re-evaluate your motivations for playing poker. Don't go down the same path I did.

I got into an interesting scenario last night at a home game tournament and I'm curious how people think I should have played it:
 
Reads on Villain: Thinking player who is aggressive (by homegame standards) he does most of his raising post flop though and if he's bluffing and gets pushed back he will usually get away from it. He is also is good at recognizing and getting away from hands where he is behind. He doesn't know a ton about me, but he recently saw me have a REALLY weird hand blind vs blind where I doubled up through the chip leader because I correctly read that he was on a draw and I pushed over the top with middle pair (I think I may have played that hand a little too aggressively, but that's a separate conversation).
 
Tournament Structure: 19 players started, 12 remain. Top 3 pay with a payout structure where it was HEAVILY weighted towards first (A deal ended up being made among the top 3 though).
I think I had ~70000 at this point and I think he had maybe 50000 at the time. Blinds are 500/1000 no ante. 6 Handed at the current table.
 
Folds to Villain in CO, who raises to 2500.
Hero is on the button with AhKh and 3bets to 7000.
Folds back around to Villain, who stares me down for a moment and calls.
[Note: In this homegame 3-betting for the VAST majority of players indicates that they are really, really strong. I try not to only do this with premium hands at this game but he likely put me on a premium hand as a result of the 3bet]
Flop (15500): Ac9d3d.
Villain bets out 7000.
Hero calls.
Turn (29500): 9h.
Villain bets 7000 again.
Hero: ??? and plan for the rest of the hand?
 
My thinking: First, the donking on the flop happens a lot in this game. He's someone that might do it when he hits the flop or when he doesn't. It's possible could be trying to take advantage of many players in this game who might have pocket Qs/Ks in my situation and freakout at the ace. Based on donk bet, the preflop action, the way that people at this game generally play, the range that I'm putting him on when he raises and calls a three bet is likely something like: ATs+ AJo+ KJo+ KTs+ KK-22. Obviously I didn't have a odds calculator in front of me, but after doing plugging it in I'm realizing that I'm way ahead of that range. Are there merits to re-raising for value and to charge flush draws or should I just call and see if I can get him to bet again on the river? I read the fact that he bet the same as he bet on the flop as either a scared bet trying to maintain control of the hand or alternatively trying to get me to come along for another street, but (as you can tell by my range I put him) I felt that he almost never has a 9 here.

So I was had a hand in the bb and it folds to the sb who bets and then I decide to raise because he looks weak to try and make him fold. Villain tanks and tanks and then he starts playing with his ring like he's jerking off his finger so I know he doesn't have it. This tell is super solid as I saw him do it once before during a hand, I can't remember what he had. So when he eventually raises me I tank until he calls the floor over but the floor is very slow so I have plenty of time. I wait for the second dial on my watch to hit 28 because it's my lucky number and I call. The pot is two bananas and an apple. Flop comes A something something and I know he's hit but I can't get away because he might be bluffing so when he bets I all in and he called with a pair that had me beat. The turn puts me ahead and I call him a fucking donk fish noob but then the river gives him the suckout, what an idiot. Do you guys play the same way or should I have gotten away from it at some point?
I had another time where I went to this shady casino because I dunno just because and while we were playing and a hand ended one of the guys just started flipping over cards, then the dealer just kinda started running circles around the table and a plyer got up and just started shitting on the table?!?! WTF. Is this normal? No one seemed to mind so I guess it must be normal but I've never seen this?!
How do you guys deal with tilt btw? I get really angry and then I'm angry and it's upsetting.
I think online is rigged because last time I played a seesion I got it in as a favourite and lost, fucking jokerstars, but anyway poker online isn't good for me I'm more of an intuitive player, I learn more when playing live as I can look into a mans eyes and soulread him. Online isn't even poker because everybody just does what their huds tell them to do that's why it's so impossible to win. I did in fact got a hud recently and I played 100 hands, do you guys mind analyzing my stats? VPIP 31 PFR 2 3bet 1 Turn cbet 38 River donk 5 and I won about $40-50 over those hands. I really want to improve so please tell me what I should change about my game because I think I'm playing perfectly at the moment.
Guys I have a confession I still live with my parents but it's by choice really. I lost my last $150 last week because this fucking dealer got blackjack but I managed to get some money and deposit on jokerstars and I actually started trying ya'know? I playe HUSNG like the pro and I won 5 in a row, I did some calculations and if I continue playing like this I'll be a millionaire in two years if I play 600 HUSNG a day with this winrate. All I need to do ius not play against fish because fish do weird shit and it's impossible to play against. I'd rather play against the pros because they ar epredicatble
I'm looking for a free money poker site btw, anyone know of any good ones?
I also have a couple of picures for you interest: I have a picture of my quads being beaten by a straight flush. I also have this picture about how I went all in on the flop and the guy got runner-runner quads! I have another picture where the board wasn't paired but this guy still had quads! I have this quads over quads picture and I have quadruple the pictures of people sucking out by hitting quads.
Anyway I will look forward to your replies but if you do not agree with me I will reply to you saying you are wrong and I am rite because that is how it is, I mean no one else can win 5 HUSNG in a row so....
Oh btw I found this funny poker video on youtube none of you has probably seen it, I don't have the link right now but if you search "BEST HAND OF POKER EVER" it will be at the top with about 20 million views, which I'm not sure how that's even possible as there's only 7 million people in the world.
Steel beams can't melt dank memes
tl;dr I am the greatest poker player but strugglign with tilt but I am a super fast learner as my teacher always told me so when I picked up poker I felt like I could do it and now that I won I have proven it and will make lots of money soon. ANy advice for my game because I dfon't need it

Full-disclosure: I copy pasted a lot of these examples from a check-calling COTW post on 2+2, but edited it to add more HH examples and math. Anything in italics was originally written by NJD77 from 2+2.
These posts are not meant to be encyclopedic, so let me know if you disagree with anything and why. Revisiting fundamental concepts is allowing me to reflect and reevaluate my own game, so I may continue to do similar posts where I elaborate on 2+2 COTWs. I’m not really sure what the target demographic is for these posts, so let me know if I need to do more or less explaining. The second half of this post explains concepts explained in the Matthew Janda Cardrunner’s video “You’re doing it wrong – part 1”. He explains it better than me, so I recommend you pick up a CR subscription if you haven’t already.
Check-calling is a very tricky line at the micros for a number of reasons:

• We are always OOP (unless you try to check/call in position, which is a very advanced play)
• If we only check-call with medium strength hands then our opponent may know this and start putting us to the test on turns and rivers
• It's just "easier" on future streets when we bet instead of check-calling

Part 1 - Fundamental Check-Calling Spots
1. When a Villain offers us direct odds to draw to a hand that beats his range. Sometimes villains will just make horrible bet sizing errors when they are holding a clear strong value hand. If we can't check-raise because we don't think he will ever fold, and we're behind his range but have equity to make a check-call versus his bet size, then we should do it.
This doesn’t occur that often, but if we know villain has a top-pair hand he won’t fold, we can call a 15% pot bet with hands like an OESD just based on direct odds. This rarely happens, hence the amount of effort I put into this example.
2. When a villain offers us implied odds to draw to a hand that beats his range. Preferably we will have both direct and implied odds, but often we will find we only have implied odds. In my opinion, this occurs more often than example 1.
100bb effective stacks. A super tight villain raises to 3x from UTG. MP calls, the CO calls, and the SB calls. You call with 67s in the BB. The flop is 258r. You check, and the UTG raiser bets ~60% pot. It folds around to you. First let’s look at the UTG raiser’s range:
A tight player raised from UTG. He then cbets into 4 people. If you can’t tell already, I engineered this example to give him a super strong range. I think it would be reasonable to say his range is usually just {JJ, QQ, KK, AA}. Therefore, let’s evaluate our options when facing this cbet:
Raise – I think this is the worst option. You are stacking off 99% of the time when you raise, which is a pretty bad-news-Bernstein-bears situation when you have 8 outs. I shouldn’t need to do any math to prove that stacking off against an overpair with 7 high and an OESD is not a +EV play.
Fold – Probably the second best option. You have the worst hand, but obviously the downside to folding is that you are punting the equity you undoubtedly have.
Call – If you didn’t figure it out already from the title of this post, calling is the best option here. You aren’t getting direct odds to call, but we are getting pretty dank implied odds. Let’s do some math:
This tight villain is not folding his hand on a 9 or a 4. If we bink the turn, we are stacking him by the river. We know the following:
(1) After the preflop action, the pot size is 13.5BB.
(2) Villain cbets for 7.5bb.
(3) Villain has ~90bb left after this cbet.
(4) There are 46 possible turn cards, and 8 of them give you a straight.
Therefore, we can calculate the EV of calling:
On 8 turns, we win ~120bb (the pot, our call, and villain’s stack). On 38 turns, we win 0bb and will probably check/fold if villain bets huge and doesn’t give us the direct or implied odds to call again.
EV of Calling = ($ won when we bink) + ($ won when we miss) – (Price of the call)
EV of Calling = (Our call + pot size + villains remaining stack)(% we bink) + (0) – (Our call)
EV of Calling = (7.5BB +21bb + 90bb)(8/46) + (0)(38/46) – (7.5bb)
EV of Calling = ~13bb
We can also use this formula to calculate the break-even point. How much would villain have to cbet with his overpair for calling to be –EV?
EV of Calling = ($ won when we bink) + ($ won when we miss) – (Price of the call)
0 = (X+21bb + 90bb)(8/46) + (0)(38/46) – (X)
X = 23.4
This calculation shows how powerful implied odds can be. Even if villain would have cbet for 23.3BB (into a pot of 13.5bb), we can still call with only 8 outs. However, this entire example relies heavily on the fact that we are stacking this villain every single time we make our straight. Do not overvalue your implied odds and start chasing draws against wide ranges, as this is a quick way to lose money. Furthermore, in this example we could actually calculate our implied odds because we know that villain only has one type of hand in his range and we know exactly what he is doing with it. Usually, implied odds are impossible to actually calculate mathematically so they rely on estimation and assumptions.
3. When boards are dry and we are in a WA/WB spot, villain is not a double barreller, and does stab at pots when checked to. Often we get no value when we are ahead and value town ourselves when behind if we bet a flop. We can therefore opt for a check-call, but only if we're sure our villain isn't the type to bet/bet/bet if he reads our action as weak.
The button raises and we flat AT in the BB. The flop is the legendary A72r. Let’s review our options:
Donk - This would be pretty bad because most villains are cbetting this board with their entire range. If villain is cbetting hands like 55 or KQ, then this is very good for us and we shouldn’t give him the chance to fold them.
Check-Raise - On such a dry board, check-raising will probably confuse our villain. He may fold hands like A9 that would have given us another street of value. By check-raising, we prevent him from double-barreling with KQ in an attempt to get us to fold a hand like 99. Therefore, this option is pretty bad.
Check-fold - We have top pair. Our pair can’t get any topper. It’s pretty clear why this is bad.
Check-call - Surprise surprise, once again this is the best option. We allow our opponent to value-own himself with worse Ax and we get maximum value from our hand.
4. When we are multiway - implied odds always rise when we are multiway. The important thing to note here is our relative position, and we don't want to be check-calling if we're a long way from closing the action. The closer we are to closing the action, the more inclined we should be to check-call. I stole the following example from the COTW post because it works pretty well:
Poker Stars, $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 7 Players Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker SoftwareSuite. View Hand #10108022
Hero (SB): $25 (100 bb) BB: $30.35 (121.4 bb) MP1: $34.27 (137.1 bb) MP2: $23.95 (95.8 bb) MP3: $34.28 (137.1 bb) CO: $30.84 (123.4 bb) BTN: $26.76 (107 bb)
Preflop: Hero is SB with 9s Ts MP1 raises to $1, MP2 folds, MP3 calls $1, CO calls $1, BTN calls $1, Hero calls $0.90, BB folds
Flop: ($5.25) 5d Jh 8s (5 players) Hero checks, MP1 bets $4.25, MP3 folds, CO calls $4.25, BTN folds, Hero calls $4.25
Turn: ($18) Qd (3 players) Hero checks, MP1 checks, CO checks
River: ($18) Jc (3 players) Hero bets $19.75 and is all-in, MP1 folds, CO calls $19.75
Results: $57.50 pot ($2 rake) Final Board: 5d Jh 8s Qd Jc Hero showed 9s Ts and won $55.50 ($30.50 net) MP1 mucked and lost (-$5.25 net) CO showed Ac Jd and lost (-$25 net)
In this scenario, we’re getting really good direct odds AND implied odds. Think about what happens when one of the villains has QJ and hits 2-pair on the turn. The MP player bets 80% pot into 4 players, so he usually has a strong value hand and this increases our implied odds.
Bad Situations to Check-Call (NJD77)

• When we have the best hand and worse will call if we bet (ldo!) - this is basics and should arise out of our process of elimination above.
• With TP/MP type hands multiway - these are terrible hands to check-call with, as they rarely improve on later streets (and by improve I'm not counting 2-pair as much of an improvement!) They have lots of reverse implied odds and generally we are just hopping aboard the express train to value town when we start check-calling TP/MP type hands, especially multiway.This is a major leak for a lot of players.
• On turns with a strong hand, where we were the preflop and flop aggressor. I see this so often, where someone opens KK pre, bets a QT7 flop, then when a villain floats, they get major Monsters-Under-the-Bed and start check-calling a turn 7. This has to be another bet for value the huge majority of the time, and yet people just surrender the initiative with no good reason. They are spewing value, and putting themselves in horrible turn and river positions. They often cite terms such as pot-control, which is even more horrible! This is also a major leak for a lot of players
  • We have a value hand on a wet board that we don't want villain to check back with. Ex: we have KK on KJ9ss as the PFR or villain raises preflop and we have 99 on Tc9c8s

Part 2 - Advanced Check-Calling Spots
If you’re a beginning uNL player, then it might be good to skip the following section and come back to it when you feel more comfortable with fundamental concepts like equity. The following examples are similar to examples from a Matthew Janda video that was directed towards SSNL players. I’m going to try to paraphrase his examples
Let’s evaluate a 9h 6d 4d board in which we opened the SB and the BB calls.
Which hands make good bets? Value hands that retain equity well and bluffs.
Value bet hands: JJ, 98, K6, etc.
Bluffs: T8s, Kd8h, Ah5h. These hands all have robust equity in the form of draws or multiple backdoors.
But what do you do with AK/AQ in this spot? These are hands that most players cbet on this board every single time. And this isn’t a huge mistake, as cbetting these hands is undoubtedly +EV. However, check-calling can be MORE +EV.
When our villain calls in the BB, he can have a very wide range of hands. Therefore, by cbetting with AK on a 9h 6d 4d board, we get our opponents to fold hands like K7. Very few hands like this that we beat are calling our cbet, and this is especially important OOP. So what happens when we check-call?
Some uNL villains will just auto-bet with KJ when checked to because they assume you’re giving up. We have these hands absolutely crushed. KJ has 3 outs (jacks) and 2 tainted outs (kings). If our opponent bets the flop he is checking back a lot of turns, allowing us to realize our showdown value. If we check-call and the turn is an A or K, then we can win a big pot against villain’s A7/KJ-type hands. In this scenario, you’re getting 3 streets of value from a hand that might have folded the flop had you cbet. Or, some of the time, villain may bet the flop with QJ and decide to barrel on an A or K.
Potential Issues: If we only check/call as the preflop raiser in these spots with hands like AK/AQ, then we can be exploited pretty easily. Against a player who won’t notice this and adjust, we don’t need to worry about balance. Against a thinking player, we can balance our range by sometimes check-calling with strong hands. I’m a fish when it comes to balance though so input here might be needed.
Similar example:
We open the CO with AcKh, BU calls. Flop is 8c 5c 3d. We should check-call. We keep dominated hands in villain’s range and give ourselves a better chance of realizing our showdown value. We don’t want to have to fold to a raise. We can bink a runner runner club sometimes.
To summarize, here are good reasons to check/call as the preflop raiser:

• We can induce villain into betting with hands we dominate
  
• We hate getting raised
  
• Cbetting gets our opponent to fold most hands we beat
  
• We have backdoor draws
  
• Our opponent may barrel on future streets on cards that improve our hands
  

If you got this far, thanks for reading!

Edit 1: First mistake I made it a miscalc of CO defending preflop. I think I made him under defend a bit so his preflop range should be wider but w/e. Maybe messed up some some other defense freq. but I think I got it right.... when I think about it.
Preface: So I did between 0-5 hours of studying in May. I think it was 0 but I don't like to talk in absolutes when I probably analysed a few hands in my own time here and there. But nothing too strenuous or in depth. If I want to keep improving my game I need to keep studying on a regular basis. The other point I wanted to bring up before I start this analysis is that nothing in here is new theory, it's been done before, years ago. But for me, I've developed my strategy from the ground up at 2nl, and I've progressed through the various meta games as I move up in stakes. It's as if I'm going through poker of 2000 through to 2010 and I still have a lot of improvements to make before I'm up to 2014 high stakes meta. That kinda vibe.
So this spot as an overview - I 3bet OOP from the blinds vs a semi wide range, so BTN or CO, flop comes down kinda wet, but safe enough to value bet tptk+ type hands, bricky turn and bricky river. Now. I'm going to be barrelling some, but not all, of my draws on a board texture like this, and on the river, I will be jamming some X amount of missed draws and all my nutted hands (sets / FHs) and maybe some thinnish value hands like overpairs.
What I want my range to do in this spot is to a. Have a balanced river jamming range so that my opponents are indifferent to calling or folding. B. Check the river with any left over busted draws that I can't justify putting into my river jamming range for balance, and to protect these hands from losing to worse draws that also miss, I want to protect about 30% of my checking range from villain from jamming ATC in that spot where I'm over folding.
On the other hand, if when I do the EV calculations it turns out that by x/c my nutted hands on the river has a greater expectation than simply jamming for value, then I can rebuild the range and move my hands around to maximise my EV. At the same time though I think it's cooler to be as aggro as possible in a lot of spots since our hands don't get shown down and it will keep villains guessing as to what we have and frustrate them a bit more.
So, let's begin (I'm making this up off the top of my head so there might be mistakes / misranged spots or miscalcs so just bear with me / the example).
A very strong opponent opens the cut off with a wide ish range (so basically not just a nitreg) with an RFI of 25% (I open 28% but I think I open a bit wider than usual so let's make it 25%). BTN folds and we 3bet with a pretty wide range out of the SB to prevent BB from coming along and to play a HU pot. We think this is the best play given the circumstances.
So I'm gonna say CO is opening this range: http://gyazo.com/ee645041a245c556f9e4ec1b2f1743b5 which is actually 27% of hands but it's close enough. Let's say BTN is a weak nitty player who doesn't defend his BTN enough so CO opened a bit wider in this spot.
SB is vaguely aware of the dynamic and decides to aggress with a wide ish range of: 7% - http://gyazo.com/ac9eaaef7fa25f5c6eff4c8342b5114a
(Okay I just went into my HM2 for last month to check my stat and altho I can't find SB vs CO open, I'm 3betting 12% out of SB vs a PFR, which seems wayyyy too loose. So I think I will stick with the example range I put above and probably fix that leak. But my results speak for themselves so it's whatever I guess)
CO calls with an appropriate defending range which I peg as: http://gyazo.com/b0dc5ae8d35b0a38b15d82718dd5cdf3
Obviously this makes it look like a slight under defend vs a PSB 3bet but villain is 4betting some hands to ensure he's defending enough.
We see a flop of T93cc. This was the flop I had in mind, some hands like ATs have to decide how thin they are gonna vbet or bluff catch with, overpairs will face tough decisions on some run outs and maybe need to adjust for these run outs by checking flop. It's basically a very dynamic board and SB is going to struggle to play perfectly OOP so it should be interesting to break it down.
Let's look at how the equities look on the flop, I'm expecting it to be quite even due to the fairly wide ranges of both players, there's gonna be a lot of air in both ranges but whatever: http://gyazo.com/1248f616d59591532d2e00f286b8a16a
So SB has a slight equity lead but it's basically 50/50. Not sure if this information is at all relevant but I felt like including it. I sort of feel like racing to the river so I'm gonna hurry through betting ranges and defending ranges on the flop and turn.
I like to see myself as the SB in this spot so given the ranges preflop, I will just use my instinct as to what I'm barrelling with here. So this is what I arrived at: http://gyazo.com/b1c34d9dfc8aa90bc4bdef24da0c11fc
This cbetting range is comprised of overpairs with a club, Big club flush draws / combo draws, backdoor spade draw + overcards, and some backdoor wheel draw + backdoor NFDs. I did it somewhat hastily but I think I do barrel all combos of QJs and maybe some more KJs but this is roughly right. it's 2.6% range so I'm cbetting 37% of my range which seems low but on a board of this texture I'm quite happy with it, plus my checking range should have adequate defense with the overpairs and pair of Ts which are trying to get to showdown.
God this analysis is going to take a while... I wish I could get this to run in CREV but I'm a CREV noob and I couldn't get it to work. Nonetheless typing it out out is a good mechanism to get thought processes going and a lot of you should find this post quite interesting.
So let's see what CO is going to peel flop with: http://gyazo.com/d3203a3ba65c0d4e861c9d9a4d3d7e21
So SB can't cbet ATC because it's not getting through often enough for 55% pot. That's the sizing SB used, it seems std for 100bb poker which is implied altho I didn't state it. I was wondering what a frustrating player would do here, and I think a hand like KQhh is the widest peel but 2 overs and a gutter I think is worth peeling.
So we see a turn - I'm gonna use a random card generator to flick through a few turn cards to pick one that suits the purpose I want to explore. So it's sort of semi random. K after seeing a bunch of Kd and Ts and other bricky cards I've decided to use 6s. I think it will be the most interesting card in the deck in terms of SB still barrelling a bunch with a wide range and CO peeling a lot ott and hence we will end up in the river spot where SB has lots of decisions to make with a lot of his range.
K turn is super gross for SB. This is the betting range: http://gyazo.com/aefd8e82b1155abfb38a434df8cf4bf6
It's sort of vulnerable overpairs which can get overtaken by draws with overs, some combo draws of our own which we bet/call off with, and Axs which we probably bet/cry fold with. Then the x/c range is strong ace highs wtih NFD + overcard potential to improve to top pair, KK+ which are less vulnerable but we're not in love with any more. I think this plan looks okay but it's a tough spot to build good ranges for but I did my best.
CO will continue with this range: With implied odds / shutdown equity when I x/f river, just stuff like that: http://gyazo.com/e02ed712c342955b8186efd9b6946984
So, interestingly, due to the wetness of the board CO has jammed turn with all it's nut hands like top 2 pairs, sets, straights etc. No semi bluffs have been stuck in though just cos I don't see them played that way very often. It's better to abuse position and outplay IP with larger SPR. Umm, I don't think I mentioned it otf but some combos are missing otf in CO continuing range cos they raise the cbet some % of the time. So I think I said 1/3 of sets raise flop, for example.
Next up, the river scenario. I'm choosing a semi-nut brick like the 4d. Not underpairing the board so 9T is counter feited, but nothing improves.
Not gonna screencap it but equities of both ranges r essentially 50/50.
So, ~60% of pot seems standard here, same size as flop and turn to set up stacks. I might've miscalced a touch but usually the players are slightly over 100bb deep so let's say 60% PSBs on all 3 streets.
So the SB betting range and checking range must fulfill the criteria I set out earlier, which was: ''A. Have a balanced river jamming range so that my opponents are indifferent to calling or folding. B. Check the river with any left over busted draws that I can't justify putting into my river jamming range for balance, and to protect these hands from losing to worse draws that also miss, I want to protect about 30% of my checking range from villain from jamming ATC in that spot where I'm over folding.''
So I think there's 2 ways to approach this analysis. Build ranges based on those criteria or just to use some equation where I fill in the variables to figure out the EV. I guess it's the same thing really. I'm tired now but I'm almost at the end so let's just go for the EV of jamming on a brick with a lot of our value hands and then re hash it so some are in the check range.
So my normal instincts in this spot is to be super aggro and go for thin value and jam all missed draws and then whatever happens, happens. So I would jam SB with: Yep, just doubled checked, I think I comfortably jam 100% of my range here, and if my worst value hand (JJ) is beaten, then so be it. So just a reminder, I'm jamming all of this: http://gyazo.com/2b31178232389e4ea2d5f42981991afa
So to prevent me from bluffing my entire range here and profiting, I believe CO must defend 62.5% of his range here, which goes as weak as 9x (!!!!!): http://gyazo.com/a291717f36437ed2ed49d6c0dec0a0c9
So it's 62% of a turn range of 3.33% so it must be roughly a 2% range, so maybe fold the K9s and call A9s. Equally, CO can adjust ranges such that some strong hands are slowplayed and SB gets to freeroll the river with some hands that fold to a jam. These ranges are just built on population tendencies as far as I know them.
So, let's look at the EV of this scenario where I jam my entire range on the river, and then compare it to when we check call and check fold some hands on the river and just jam the nuts.
Equation I'm using: EV= (%oppfolds)(Pot)+(%oppcalls)(%win)(Pot+Bet)-(%opp calls)(%lose)(Bet)
So I'm about to input the % opp folds, and before I assumed villain reacts perfectly on the river and defends optimally. In reality I don't think many villains are capable of calling with 9x there, but, when I played 500nlz I saw some people making (crazy) call downs with weak holdings. So maybe they were sickos or maybe just donks who put me on AK (lol). So I guess I have this % at my discretion. I'm gonna alter it a bit and say that villains over fold a bit here, which implies if villains never slow play a monster, this river bluff auto prints money. Which makes sense to me because I'm hyper aggro and it's been working so maybe I have been making +EV plays even though I hadn't done the analysis. So I'll tighten villains calling range to some Tx+ hands:
http://gyazo.com/706d6924f099a0851fe6fb4d44f66134
So as you can see, the 3.3% range has become a 1.6% range so villain is folding ~50% of the time.
So I've input P(fold) of both cases as 50%, all bet sizes as a % of PSB then will convert to $ as if it's a $100nl hand or something at the end. Interestingly, my SB pot equity is only 37%, so I really am FOS a lot of the time with this line, so villains should be calling a lot here vs me.
EV= (0.5)(1)+(0.5)(0.37)(1.6)-(0.5)(0.63)(0.6)
EV = 0.5 + 0.296 - 0.189
EV = 0.607
K now I'm confused as to whether that is 60% of the pot, so $60, or whether it should've been dollars from the start. Since every component has a Pot element I think it's okay. So on average that line will net me $60, and pot size by the end will be $200? Someone might need to take a look and double check that. It sort of makes sense to me but I'm kinda tired rn.
Okay so given that I'm actually jamming 100% of my turn range I don't feel the urgent need to analysis the EV of checking river with some hands. I will take a look at it tomorrow and post the EV of checking and villain jams missed draws etc. May also run sims of different player types who bluff 100% of draws, 50% of draws or 0% of draws to decide what is best play vs different player types.
I hope you enjoyed this analysis, god it took a long time but I'm kinda happy with how it panned out. Got some more work to do tomorrow on this hand but this is a good start. Play well at the tables (prefer play well to good luck because I don't like to think of poker as luck any more, hope you guys agree).
edit 2: altho it appears this line prints $60 of money, there's a lot of scenarios in the background where we check give up and such on the flop / turn which loses us money, so just bear that in mind.

Hi everyone,
I've been playing at the low limits for about 3 years now. I cut my teeth at the commerce casino which is known for being very tight, even at the low limits. No one is there to have fun, it's just all business all the time.
I have studied basic poker strategy, i've read the 2+2 book "small stakes holdem" (but i admit there are parts that still confuse me) and I know how to calculate odds and outs, ect, I never let my emotions factor into any decisions made at the table.
That being said, I can't seem to turn a profit! I went to the card room on friday, and came up 100 dollars in two hours. Granted, I did get extremely lucky, hitting trips four separate times. Still i knew when to value bet these strong hands and it paid off.
Then I go back last night and lose about 200 bucks. At the low limits, it's common to chase draws to the ends of the earth, except, I never seemed to connect. I got my aces cracked twice, i folded two pair, and then another time my two pair was cracked when some guy flopped the nut straight. I just kept leaking away my chips even though I was making profitable calls.
The above example seems to underscore my experience with live poker at low limits so far... occasionally I will have a good run, but it doesn't have anything to do with the way i played. I just seem to get lucky playing whatever hands, or really fucking unlucky when playing the hands the way I should.
So my questions are..

1. Should I just move it up to 40NL? Or would I get annihilated? I feel like the way I play is more suited to NL
   
2. Am I just fucking unlucky or what? I do not record every hand live, but I can assure you I have had some really fucking good hands cracked on the river against some donk hand that the prick should have folded before the flop to a three bet
   
3. Am I just not as knowledgeable as I thought? I realize without the knowledge of the specific hands It's hard to relate how I've been playing. But I keep seeing these guys win with donk-ass hands like five duece off! I fold those sort of hands with the patience of a celibate monk, yet when i get the hands i need, i don't connect. I let the button pass me twice before calling. I mean come on
   

partypoker - $1 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com
Hero (BB): 153.24 BB UTG: 30 BB (VPIP: 29.63, PFR: 24.44, 3Bet Preflop: 10.91, Hands: 135)
SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has Ah Ac UTG raises to 2.5 BB, fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero?
What would you guys do here? Everyones mind immediatly jumps to 3-bet as did mine. But I stopped and wondered, is it more profitable to just flat to then check raise flops or check call flops and donk turns? I wouldn't have the slightest clue how I go about and calculate this though.

I was trying to calculate the amount that an opponent would have to bet that would give me favourable odds to call for certain draws, but I'm not sure I understand this completely.
Lets say the pot is $100. You're on the button with the nut flush draw (we're assuming exactly 9 outs). Your opponent donks $50 into you. Pot is now $150. If you call, the pot becomes $200, so you are risking $50 to win a pot of $200. That means your odds are 200:50, or 4:1. That is just the right amount you need to call, right? Or do I have something wrong?
The reason I'm second guessing myself is that I thought betting half the pot should discourage draws by not giving the proper odds... But this is giving the proper odds for a call.
(btw, we're only talking about expressed odds, not implied odds. And only for the next card)