Hi Mr Peterson. I just watched you on Skavlan and even tho I definitely agree with you on a lot of issues I have to say when it come to staying together because of your children you are surprisingly naive and very very wrong. If you have two parents that love etch other of cores that is the ideal environment to grow up in, but if you have two parents that can't stand etch other then it is an absolute nightmare and you whould grow up thinking that this is what love is. I'm honestly suprised that a trained psychologist whould even come up with something this stupid. It whould be impossible to have made accurate studies on this because of the Shroudingers cat dilemma but just use your head pleas. The options are as followed: (For children of parents wanting a divorce or have had a divorce) You can aither have two happy parents on there own or in new happy relationships. You can have one happy parent and one misirable. You can have two misirable parents.
(Options for children having two parents that should be divorced but stay together for there kid(s)) You can have two misirable parents.
This is the undisputably logical outcomes and saying people should stay together for there children is about as intelligent as betting on a dead horse.

This is just another rant post about the current state of Windows Phone but i had to went the fume of anger inside me. Sorry in Advance... After 7 years rocking phones like the Lumia 720, 920, 925 and Microsoft 950 i am switching to Android today. It is a bitter change, but i have no choice. As many on this sub i had to realize myself that Windows Phone is dead and Microsoft abandoned thousands of loyal customers without a word. As a Security Expert myself, Windows Phone was the perfect choice for me over the Android phones full of bloatware, spyware and the convenience of windows synchronization across multiple devices. But now its over. Its over because i have no other choice to leave. Nearly every App is dead or dysfunctional at this point. We will get (IF we get) security updates 'till 2019 but what's the point ? There is no shame in realizing that we are betting on a dead horse. Its over.
Congratulations Nadella. After the company spending millions of acquisitions and innovation to finally build a viable phone and OS (Win 10 + 950 or 640) you flush the whole thing down the toilet. What kind of f*cked up tactics is that? Yes i know. Windows phone was not profitable. But with a change of Marketing and Support (which are both were the biggest problems of MS) you could have mitigated this and would have much more market share now and a profitable business. If something is not working where you spent millions, you fix it and not pulling the plug.
Anyway, i am switching to Nokia 7 Plus. Android Pure. Hopefully no bloatware, spyware just regularly google will know my dick size, but its ok. At least its a platform which is supported. At least its a platform where they don't leave loyal customers behind. At least its not held together by the prayers of a few windows devs and insiders. At least its not Windows...
I am sad and angry. Thank you for listening.

'''
It's blatantly obvious that the bitcoin hype is over and every investor is looking to try something else.
Not enticed in the slightest to buy whatsoever. It's just going to keep dropping. Don't be surprised to be 3 digits and even then, it will likely just keep lowering.
Spending money on this dip is nothing short of betting on a dead horse. That money will be gone before you know it and you will never see it again.
There's literally thousands of other ways you can invest. I wish I could've talked some sense into myself 4 months ago and sell all the bitcoins I had when the hype was still big. But the bad advise I got here told me otherwise and now I'm in a predicament where I have to suffer for making such a bad choice. This is what listening to a circlejerking sub does to you.
That's it for my rant. I hope I'm wrong and things do change but given how bad this direction is going, I don't see a change. A valuable lesson learned is to never expect an opportunity to wait for you.
'''
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Author: Icantw8

Today i have a confession to make: i'm a little bit of a minmaxer. And honestly, i think that's a pretty desirable trait in a DM. The minmaxer knows the rules, and exploits them to maximum efficiency.
"But wait, what does that have to do with spell use in society?" - someone, probably.
Well, the thing is that humans are absolutely all about minmaxing. There's a rule in the universe that reads "gas expands when hot", and suddenly we have steam engines (or something like that, i'm a political scientist not an engineer). A rule says 1+1 = 2, and suddenly we have calculus, computers and all kinds of digital stuff that runs on math. Sound is energy? Let's convert that shit into electricity, run it through a wire and turn it back into sound on the other side.
Bruh. Science is just minmaxing the laws of nature. Humanity in real life is just a big bunch of munchkins, and it should be no different in your setting.
And that is why minmaxing magic usage is something societies as a whole would do, specially with some notable spells. Today i will go in depth on how and why each of these notable mentions has a huge impact on a fantasy society.
We'll go from lowest level to highest, keeping in mind that the lower level a spell the more common it should be to find someone who has it, so often a level 2-3 spell will have more impact than a level 9 spell.
​
Mending (cantrip).
Repair anything in one minute. Your axe lost its edge? Tore your shirt? Just have someone Mend it.
Someone out there is crying "but wait! Not every village has a wizard!" and while that is true, keep in mind any High Elf knows a cantrip, as can any Variant Human.
A single "mender" could replace a lot of the work a smith, woodworker or seamstress does, freeing their time to only work on making new things rather than repair old ones.
​
Prestidigitation (cantrip).
Clean anything in six seconds. Committed axe murders until the axe got blunt, and now there's blood everywhere? Dog shit on your pillow out of spite? Someone walked all over the living room with muddy boots? Just Prestidigitate it away.
This may look like a small thing, but its actually huge when you apply it to laundry. Before washing machines were a thing housewives had to spend several hours a week washing them manually, and with Prestidigitation you can just hire someone to get it done in a few minutes.
A single "magic cleaner" can attend to several dozen homes, if not hundreds, thus freeing several hours of the time of dozens of women.
Fun fact: there's an interesting theory that says feminism only existed because of laundry machines and similar devices. Women found themselves having more free time, which they used to read and socialize. Educated women with more contacts made for easy organization of political movements, and the fact men were now able to do "the women's work" by pushing a button meant men were less opposed to losing their housewives' labor. Having specialized menders and magic cleaners could cause a comparable revolution in a fantasy setting, and help explain why women have a similar standing to men even in combat occupations such as adventuring.
​
Healing in general (1st-2nd level).
This one is fairly obvious. A commoner has 4 hit points, that means just about any spell is a full heal to the average person. That means most cuts, stab wounds, etc. can be solved by the resident cleric. Even broken bones that would leave you in bed for months can be solved in a matter of seconds as soon as the holy man arrives.
But that's nothing compared to the ability to cure diseases. While the only spell that can cure diseases is Lesser Restoration, which is second level, a paladin can do it much more easily with just a Lay on Hands. This means if one or two people catch a disease it can just be eradicated with a touch.
However doing that comes with a cost. If everyone is instantly expunged of illness, the populace does not build up their immune systems. Regular disease becomes less common, sure, but whenever it is reintroduced (by, say, immigrants or contact with less civilized humanoids) it can spread like wildfire, afflicting people so fast that no amount of healers will have the magic juice to deal with it.
Diseases become rare, plagues become common.
​
Continual Flame (2nd).
Ok, this one is a topic i love and could easily be its own post.
There's an article called "Why the Falling Cost of Light Matters", which goes in detail about how man went from chopping wood for fire, to using animal fat for candles, then other oils, whale oil, kerosene, then finally incandescent light bulbs, and more recently LED lights. Each of these leaps is orders of grandeur more efficient than the previous one, to the point that the cost of light today is about 500,000 times cheaper than it was for for a caveman. And until the early 1900s the only way mankind knew of making light was to set things on fire.
Continual Flame on the other hand allows you to turn 50gp worth of rubies and a 2nd level spell slot into a torch that burns forever. In a society that spends 60 hours of labor to be able to generate 140 minutes of light, this is a huge game changer.
This single spell, which i am 99% sure was just created as an excuse for why the dungeon is lit despite going for centuries without maintenance, allows you to have things like public lighting. Even if you only add a new "torchpost" every other week or month sooner or later you'll be left with a neatly lit city, specially if the city has had thousands of years in which to gather the rubies and light them up.
And because the demand of rubies becomes so important, consider how governments would react. Lighting the streets is a public service, if its strategically relevant to make the city safer at night, would that not warrant some restrictions on ruby sales? Perhaps even banning the use of rubies in jewelry?
Trivia: John D. Rockefeller, the richest man in history, gained his wealth selling kerosene. Kerosene at the time was used to light lamps. Gasoline was invented much later, when Rockefeller tasked a bunch of scientists to come up with a use for some byproducts of the kerosene production. This illustrates how much money is to be had in the lighting industry, and you could even have your own Rockefeller ruby baron in your game. I shall call him... Dohn J. Stonebreaker. Perfect name for a mining entrepreneur.
Whether the ruby trade ends up a monopoly under the direct supervision of the king or a free market, do keep in mind that Continual Flame is by far the most efficient way of creating light.
​
Gentle Repose (2nd).
Cast it on a corpse, and it stays preserved for 10 days.
This has many potential uses, from preserving foodstuffs (hey, some rare meats are expensive enough to warrant it) to keeping the bodies of old rulers preserved. Even if a ruler died of old age and cannot be resurrected, the body could be kept "fresh" out of respect/ceremony. Besides, it keeps the corpse from becoming undead.
​
Skywrite (2nd).
Ok, this one is mostly a gag. While the spell can be used by officials to make official announcements to the populace, such as new laws or important news, i like to just use it for spam. I mean, its a ritual spell that writes a message on the sky; what else would people use it for?
Imagine you show up in a city, and there's half a dozen clouds reading "buy at X, we have what you need", "get your farming supplies over at Joe's store" or "vote Y for the city council".
The possibilities are endless, and there's no way the players can expect it. Just keep in mind that by RAW the spell can only do words, meaning no images. No Patrick, "8===D" is not a word.
​
Zone of Truth (2nd).
This one is too obvious. Put all suspects of a crime into a ZoT, wait a couple minutes to make sure they fail the save, then ask each one if he did it. Sure its not a perfect system, things like the Ring of Mind Shielding still exist, but it's got a better chance of getting the right guy than most medieval justice systems. And probably more than a few contemporary ones. All while taking only a fraction of the time.
More importantly, with all the average crimes being handled instantly, the guards and investigators have more time to properly investigate the more unusual crimes that might actually involve a Thought Shield, Ring of Mind Shielding or a level 17 Mastermind.
There is a human rights argument against messing with people's minds in any way, which is why this may not be practiced in every kingdom. But there are definitely some more lawful societies that would use ZoT on just about every crime.
Why swear to speak the truth and nothing but the truth when you can just stand in a zone of truth?
Another interesting use for ZoT is oaths. When someone is appointed into an office, gets to a high rank in the military or a guild, just put them in a ZoT while they make their oath to stand for the organization's values and yadda yadda. Of course they can be corrupted later on, but at least you make sure they're honest when they are sworn in.
​
Sending (3rd).
Sending is busted in so many ways.
The more "vanilla" use of it is to just communicate over long distances. We all know that information is important, and that sometimes getting information a whole day ahead can lead to a 40% return on a massive two-year investment. Being able to know of invasions, monsters, disasters, etc. without waiting days or weeks for a courier can be vital for the survival of a nation. Another notable example is that one dude who ran super fast for a while to be the first to tell his side of a recent event.
But the real broken thing here is... Sending can Send to any creature, on any plane; the only restriction being "with which you are familiar". In D&D dead people just get sent to one of the afterlife planes, meaning that talking to your dead grandfather would be as simple as Sending to him. Settling inheritance disputes was never easier!
Before moving on to the next point let me ask you something: Is a cleric familiar with his god? Is a warlock familiar with his patron?
​
Speak With Dead (3rd).
Much like Sending, this lets you easily settle disputes. Is the senate/council arguing over a controversial topic? Just ask the beloved hero or ruler from 200 years ago what he thinks on the subject. As long his skeleton still has a jaw (or if he has been kept in Gentle Repose), he can answer.
This can also be used to ask people who killed them, except murderers also know this. Plan on killing someone? Accidentally killed someone? Make sure to inutilize the jaw. Its either that, being so stealthy the victim can't identify you, or being caught.
​
Note on spell availability.
Oh boy. No world-altering 4th level spells for some reason, and suddenly we're playing with the big boys now.
Spells up to 3rd level are what I'd consider "somewhat accessible", and can be arranged for a fee even for regular citizens. For instance the vanilla Priest statblock (MM348) is a 5th level cleric, and the standard vanilla Druid (MM346) a 4th level druid.
Spells of 5th level onward will be considered something only the top 1% is able to afford, or large organizations such as guilds, temples or government.
​
Dream (5th).
I was originally going to put Dream along with Sending and Telepathy as "long range communication", but decided against it due to each of them having unique uses.
And when it comes to Dream, it has the unique ability of allowing you to put your 8 hours of sleep to good use. A tutor could hire someone to cast Dream on him, thus allowing him to teach his student for 8 hours at any distance. This is a way you could even access hermits that live in the middle of nowhere or in secluded monasteries. Very wealthy families or rulers would be willing to pay a good amount of money to make sure their heirs get that extra bit of education.
Its like online classes, but while you sleep!
Another interesting use is for cheating. Know a princess or queen you like? She likes you back? Her dad put 400 trained soldiers between you? No problemo! Just find a 9th level Bard, Warlock or Wizard, but who am i kidding, of course it'll be a bard. And that bard is probably you. Now you have 8 hours to do whatever you want, and no physical evidence will be left.
​
Raise Dead (5th).
Few things matter more in life than death. And the ability to resurrect people has a huge impact on society. The impact is so huge that this topic needs topics of its own.
First, diamond monopoly. Remember what i said about how Continual Flame would lead to controlled ruby sales due to its strategic value? This is the same principle, but a hundred times stronger. Resurrection is a huge strategic resource. It makes assassinations harder, can be used to bring back your officials or highest level soldiers over and over during a war, etc. This means more authoritarian regimes would do everything within their power to control the supply and stock of diamonds. Which in turn means if anyone wants to have someone resurrected, even in times of peace, they'll need to call in a favor, do a quest, grease some hands...
Second, resurrection insurance. People hate risks. That's why insurance is such a huge industry, taking up about 15% of the US GDP. People insure their cars, houses... even their lives. Resurrection just means "life insurance" is taken more literally. This makes even more sense when you consider how expensive resurrection is: nobody can afford it in one go, but if you pay a little every month or year you can save up enough to have it done when the need arises.
This is generally incompatible with the idea of a State-run monopoly over diamonds, but that just means different countries within a setting can take different approaches.
To make things easier, i even used some microeconomics to make a sheet in my personal random generators to calculate the price of such a service. Just head to the "Insurance" tab and fill in the information relative to your setting.
With actual life insurance resurrection can cost as little as 5gp a year for humans or 8sp a year for elves, making resurrection way more affordable than it looks.
Also, do you know why pirates wore a single gold earring? It was so that if your body washes up on the shore whoever finds it can use the money to arrange a proper burial. Sure there's a risk of the finder taking it and walking away, but the pirates did it anyway. With resurrection in play, might as well just wear a diamond earring instead and hope the finder is nice enough to bring you back.
I got so carried away with the whole insurance thing i almost forgot: the possibility of resurrection also changes how murders are committed.
If you want someone dead but resurrection exists, you have to remove the vital organs. Decapitation would be far more common. Sure resurrection is still possible, but it requires higher level spells or Reincarnate, which has... quirks.
As a result it should be very obvious when someone was killed by accident or an overreaction, and when someone was specifically out to kill the victim.
​
Scrying (5th).
This one is somewhat obvious, in that everyone and their mother knows it helps finding people. But who needs finding? Well, that would be those who are hiding.
The main use i see for this spell, by far, is locating escaped criminals. Just collect a sample of hair or blood when arresting someone (or shipping them to hard labor which is way smarter), and if they escape you'll be almost guaranteed to successfully scry on them.
A similar concept to this is seen in the Dragon Age series. If you're a mage the paladins keep a sample of your blood in something called a phylactery, and that can be used to track you down. There's even a quest or two about mages trying to destroy their phylacteries before escaping.
Similarly, if you plan a jailbreak it would be highly beneficial to destroy the blood/hair sample first. As a matter of fact i can even see a thieves guild hiring a low level party to take out the sample while the professional infiltrators get the prisoner out. Keep in mind both events must be done at the same time, otherwise the guards will just collect a new sample or would have already taken it to the wizard.
But guards aren't the only ones with resources. A loan shark could keep blood samples of his debtors, a mobster can keep one of those who owe him favors, etc. And the blood is ceremoniously returned only when the debt is fully paid.
​
Teleportation Circle (5th), Transport Via Plants (6th).
In other words, long range teleportation. This is such a huge thing that it is hard to properly explain how important it is.
Teleportation Circle creates a 10ft. circle, and everyone has one round to get in and appear on the target location. Assuming 30ft. movement that means you can get 192 people through, which is a lot of potential merchants going across any distance. Or 672 people dashing.
Math note: A 30ft radius square around a 10ft. diameter square, minus the 4 original squares. Or [(6*2+2)^2]-4 squares of 5ft. each. Hence 192 people.
Getting hundreds of merchants, workers, soldiers, etc. across any distance is nothing to scoff at. In fact, it could help explain why PHB item prices are so standardized: Arbitrage is so easy and cheap that price differences across multiple markets become negligible. Unless of course countries start setting up tax collectors outside of the permanent teleportation circles in order to charge tariffs.
Transport Via Plants does something very similar but it requires 5ft of movement to go through, which means less people can be teleported. On the other hand it doesn't burn 50gp and can take you to any tree the druid is familiar with, making it nearly impossible for tax collectors to be waiting on the other side. Unfortunately druids tend to be a lot less willing to aid smugglers, so your best bet might be a bard using spells that don't belong to his list.
With these methods of long range teleportation not only does trade get easier, but it also becomes possible to colonize or inhabit far away places. For instance if someone finds a gold mine in the antarctic you could set up a mine and bring food and other supplies via teleportation.
​
Major Image (6th level slot).
Major Image is a 3rd level spell that creates an illusion over a 20ft cube, complete with image, sound, smell and temperature. When cast with a 6th level slot or higher, it lasts indefinitely.
That my friends, is a huge spell. Why get the world's best painter to decorate the ceiling of your cathedral when you can just get an illusion made in six seconds?
The uses for decorating large buildings is already good, but remember: we're not restricted to sight.
Cast this on a room and it'll always be cool and smell nice. Inns would love that, as would anyone who always sleeps or works in the same room. Desert cities have never been so chill.
You can even use an illusion to make the front of your shop seem flashier, while hollering on loop to bring customers in.
The only limit to this spell is your imagination, though I'm pretty sure it was originally made just to hide secret passages.
Trivia: the ki-rin (VGM163) can cast Major Image as a 6th level spell, at will. It's probably meant to give them fabulous lairs yet all it takes is someone doing the holy horsey a big favor, and it could enchant the whole city in a few hours. Shiniest city on the planet, always at a nice temperature and with a fragrance of lilac, gooseberries or whatever you want.
​
Simulacrum (7th).
Spend 12 hours and 1500gp worth of ruby dust, and get a clone of yourself. Notably, each caster can only have one simulacrum, regardless of who the person he cloned is.
How this changes the world? By allowing the rich and powerful to be in two places at once. Kings now have a perfect impersonator who thinks just like them. A wealthy banker can run two branches of his company. Etc.
This makes life much easier, but also competes with Continual Flame over resources.
It also gives "go fuck yourself" a whole new meaning, making the sentence a valid Suggestion.
​
Clone (8th).
If there's one spell i despise, its Clone.
Wizard-only preemptive resurrection. Touch spell, costs 1.000gp worth of diamonds each time, takes 120 days to come into effect, and creates a copy of the creature that the soul occupies if the original dies. Oh, and the copy can be made younger.
Why is it so despicable? Because it makes people effectively immortal. Accidents and assassinations just get you sent to the clone, and old age can be forever delayed because you keep going back to younger versions of yourself. Being a touch spell means the wizard can cast it on anyone he wants.
In other words: high level wizards, and only wizards, get to make anyone immortal.
That means wizards will inevitably rule any world in which this spell exists.
Think about it. Rulers want to live forever. Wizards can make you live forever. Wizards want other stuff, which you must give them if you want to continue being Cloned. Rulers who refuse this deal eventually die, rulers who accept stick around forever. Natural selection makes it so that eventually the only rulers left are those who sold their soul to wizards. Figuratively, i hope.
The fact that there are only a handful of wizards out there who are high enough level to cast the spell means its easier for them organize and/or form a cartel or union (cartels/unions are easier to maintain the fewer suppliers are involved).
This leads to a dystopian scenario where mages rule, kings are authoritarian pawns and nobody else has a say in anything. Honestly it would make for a fun campaign in and of itself, but unless that's specifically what you're going for it'll just derail everything else.
Oh, and Clone also means any and all liches are absolute idiots. Liches are people who turned themselves into undead abominations in order to gain eternal life at the cost of having to feed on souls. They're all able to cast 9th level wizard spells, so why not just cast an 8th level one and keep undeath away? Saves you the trouble of going after souls, and you keep the ability to enjoy food or a day in the sun.
​
Demiplane (8th).
Your own 30ft. room of nothingness. Perfect place for storage and a DM's nightmare given how once players have access to it they'll just start looting furniture and such. Oh the horror.
But alas, infinite storage is not the reason this is a broken spell. No sir.
Remember: you can access someone else's demiplane. That means a caster in city 1 can put things into a demiplane, and a caster in city 2 can pull them out of any surface.
But wait, there's more! There's nothing anywhere saying you can't have two doors to the same demiplane open at once. Now you're effectively opening a portal between two places, which stays open for a whole hour.
But wait, there's even more! Anyone from any plane can open a door to your neat little demiplane. Now we can get multiple casters from multiple planes connecting all of those places, for one hour. Sure this is a very expensive thing to do since you're having to coordinate multiple high level individuals in different planes, but the payoff is just as high. We're talking about potential integration between the most varied markets imaginable, few things in the multiverse are more valuable or profitable. Its a do-it-yourself Sigil.
One little plot hook i like about demiplanes is abandoned/inactive ones. Old wizard/warlock died, and nobody knows how to access his demiplanes. Because he's at least level 15 you just know there's some good stuff in there, but nobody can get to it. Now the players have to find a journal, diary, stored memory or any other way of knowing enough about the demiplane to access it.
​
True Polymorph (9th).
True Polymorph. The spell that can turn any race into any other race, or object. And vice-versa. You can go full fairy godmother and turn mice into horses. For a spell that can change anything about one's body it would not be an unusual ruling to say it can change one's sex. At the very least it can turn a man into a chair, and the chair into a woman (or vice-versa of course).
But honestly, that's just the tip of the True Polymorph iceberg. Just read this more carefully:
> You transform the creature into a different creature, the creature into a nonmagical object, or the object into a creature
This means you can turn a rock or twig into a human. A fully functional human with, as far as the rules go, a soul. You can create life.
But wait, there's more! Nothing there says you have to turn the target into a known creature on an existing creature. The narcissist bard wants to create a whole race of people who look like him? True Polymorph. A player wants to play a weird ass homebrew race and you have no idea how it would fit into the setting? True Polymorph. Wizard needs a way to quickly populate a kingdom and doesn't want to wait decades for the subjects to grow up? True Polymorph. Warlock must provide his patron 100 souls in order to free his own? True Polymorph. The sorcerer wants to do something cool? Fuck that guy, sorcerers don't get any of the fun high level spells; True Poly is available to literally every arcane caster but the sorcerer.
Note: what good is Twinned Spell if all the high level twinnable spells have been specifically made unavailable to sorcerers?
Do keep in mind however that this brings a whole new discussion on human rights. Does a table have rights? Does it have rights after being turned into a living thing? If it had an owner, is it now a slave? Your country will need so many new laws, just to deal with this one spell.
People often say that high level wizards are deities for all intents and purposes. This is the utmost proof of that. Clerics don't get to create life out of thin air, wizards do. The cleric worships a deity, the wizard is the deity.
​
Conclusion.
Intelligent creatures not only can game the system, but it is entirely in character for them to do so. I'll even argue that if humanoids don't use magic to improve their lives when it's available, you're pushing the suspension of disbelief.
With this post i hope to have helped you make more complex and realistic societies, as well as provide a few interesting and unusual plot hooks
Lastly, as much as i hate comment begging i must admit i am eager to see what spells other players think can completely change the world. Because at the end of the day we all know that extra d6 damage is not what causes empires to rise and fall, its the utility spells that make the best stories.
​
Edit: Added spell level to all spells, and would like to thank u/kaul_field for helping with finishing touches and being overall a great mod.

Introduction

Welcome to the /politics polling discussion thread for the general election. As the election nears, polling of both the national presidential popular vote and important swing states is ramping up, and with both parties effectively deciding on nominees, pollsters can get in the field to start assessing the state of the presidential race. Please use this thread to discuss polling and the general state of the presidential or congressional election. Below, you'll find some of the most recent polls, but this is by no means exhaustive, as well as some links to prognosticators sharing election models.
As always though, polls don't vote, people do. Regardless of whether your candidate is doing well or poorly, democracy only works when people vote, and there are always at least a couple polling misses every cycle, some of which are pretty high profile. If you haven't yet done so, please take some time to register to vote or check your registration status.

Polls

Below is a collection of recent polling of the US Presidential election. This is likely incomplete and also omits the generic congressional ballot as well as Senate/House/Gubernatorial numbers that may accompany these polls. Please use the discussion space below to discuss any additional polls not covered. Additionally, not all polls are created equal. If this is your first time looking at polls, the FiveThirtyEight pollster ratings page is a helpful tool to assess historic partisan lean in certain pollsters, as well as their past performance.
This is likely to be one of the last clear snapshots of polling until at least mid-September. Historically speaking, the party conventions impart a statistically significant 'bump' in candidates' poll numbers. This convention bounce averages around 5 points for candidates (though some candidates have far surpassed this number), but the trend of high bounces has seen a decline in recent elections. With increased coverage of each party during their respective conventions (DNC: August 17-20, RNC: August 24-27), and this year's conventions taking place in a mostly-remote setting, it is hard to predict how large or any impact on the polls will be.

Poll	Date	Type	Biden	Trump
NBC News	8-16	National	50	41
SurveyUSA	8-15	Connecticut	52	32
Redfield & Wilton Strategies	8-14	California	61	25
Data for Progress	8-14	National	51	41
Data for Progress	8-14	National	52	39
YouGov	8-14	Massachusetts	61	28
Global Strategy Group	8-14	National	52	42
Marist College	8-14	National	53	42
Fox News	8-13	National	49	42
Léger	8-13	National	46	--
Léger	8-13	National	47	39
Pew Research Center	8-13	National	53	45
Morning Consult	8-13	National	51	42
Morning Consult	8-13	National	50	43
Morning Consult	8-13	National	50	43
Harper Polling	8-13	North Carolina	45	44
Morning Consult	8-13	National	51	43
Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group	8-13	Mississippi	43	53
SurveyUSA	8-13	California	56	28
Rasmussen Reports	8-13	Wisconsin	55	42
Harris Insights & Analytics	8-12	National	44	40
Ipsos	8-12	National	47	38
Ipsos	8-12	National	43	37
Ipsos	8-12	National	56	43
Ipsos	8-12	National	58	42
SurveyUSA	8-12	Kansas	41	48
YouGov Blue	8-12	National	51	45
Rasmussen Reports	8-12	National	49	43
Critical Insights	8-12	Maine	45	38
YouGov	8-12	National	49	39
Morning Consult	8-12	National	49	40
Change Research	8-12	National	50	44
Change Research	8-12	Wisconsin	47	43
Change Research	8-12	North Carolina	47	48
Change Research	8-12	Arizona	45	44
Change Research	8-12	Florida	50	44
Change Research	8-12	Michigan	48	43
Change Research	8-12	Pennsylvania	48	44
MassINC Polling Group	8-12	Massachusetts	63	27
Emerson College	8-11	Pennsylvania	53	46
Emerson College	8-11	North Carolina	49	50
Emerson College	8-11	Arizona	53	46
Critical Insights	8-11	Maine	44	36
Critical Insights	8-11	Maine CD-2	39	38
Critical Insights	8-11	Maine CD-1	49	33
Marquette University Law School	8-11	Wisconsin	50	45
Marquette University Law School	8-11	Wisconsin	50	46
Monmouth University	8-11	National	52	39
Monmouth University	8-11	National	51	41
Emerson College	8-11	Minnesota	51	49
SurveyUSA	8-11	Georgia	46	44
Public Policy Polling	8-10	North Carolina	49	46
Rasmussen Reports	8-10	North Carolina	47	48
HIT Strategies	8-10	North Carolina	47	37
HIT Strategies	8-10	Georgia	44	40
Trafalgar Group	8-10	Arizona	44	46
RMG Research	8-10	National	45	37
RMG Research	8-10	Maine	50	39
Georgetown University (Battleground)	8-10	National	53	39
OH Predictive Insights	8-10	Arizona	49	45
Strategies 360	8-10	Nebraska CD-1	46	48
YouGov	8-10	Wisconsin	49	43
YouGov	8-10	Michigan	47	43
YouGov	8-10	Pennsylvania	50	41

Election Predictions

Prognosticators

Prognosticators are folks who make projected electoral maps, often on the strength of educated guesses as well as inside information in some cases from campaigns sharing internals with the teams involved. Below are a few of these prognosticators and their assessment of the state of the race:

• Cook Political Reports - Charlie Cook's race ratings are well regarded in the political field, and he's been in the business for a while. Cook is known to incorporate both public and nonpublic (ie. internal polling) information in his projections. Also covers (and is perhaps better known for) Senate and House races.
• Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball - Larry Sabato has also been in the political prediction business for a while now, and the team at the UVA Center for Politics has been fairly successful in past cycles. Towards the end of the election cycle, Sabato has a policy of making a call in each state, refusing to leave any race in the tossup category. Also covers Senate and House races.
• Inside Elections - Inside Elections, run by Nathan Gonzales, is the successor to Stu Rothenberg's Rothenberg Political Reports, which used to be a part of Roll Call. This prognosticator did fairly well in 2018, though Rothenberg himself boldly (along with some other pundits) predicted in 2016 that Donald Trump's path to the presidency was nonexistent. Also covers Senate, House and Gubernatorial races.
• Daily Kos Elections - Daily Kos Elections is the direct successor to the Swing State Project website, which merged with Daily Kos in 2010. Despite the liberal lean of the site as a whole, the Daily Kos Elections predictions tend to be fairly even-handed, if not even slightly bearish for Democrats. Presidential numbers aren't up yet but they have Senate, House and Gubernatorial races.
• RRH Elections - Red Racing Horses Elections is a site founded by former conservative-leaning members of the Swing State Project community. Despite the conservative nature of the commentary, like DKE, the race predictions tend to be fairly neutral, if slightly bearish for Republicans. Like the Crystal Ball, RRH will call all races before the election so that none are left in the tossup category. The presidential rankings have not been published but they do cover Senate, House, Gubernatorial and Row Officer (statewide elected officials, such as state Attorney General, Secretary of State etc.) races.
• Media predictions - CNN | U.S. News | NPR | POLITICO

Polling Models

Polling models are similar to prognosticators (and often the model authors will act like pundits as well), but tend to be about making "educated guesses" on the state of the election. Generally, the models are structured to take in data such as polls and electoral fundamentals, and make a guess based on research on prior elections as to the state of the race in each state. Below are a few of the more prominent models that are online or expected to be online soon:

• FiveThirtyEight - after months of work, the model is live! 538's team of analysts have put together a beast of a forecast for 2020. It runs 40,000 simulations of the election and uses that data to come up with a projected winner out of 100 sampled outcomes. It also breaks down the projection to show potential electoral college results, popular vote share, tipping point state likelihood, and it can even be broken down into state-level analytics.
• Princeton Election Consortium - this is the model run by Dr. Sam Wang, a neuroscience professor at Princeton University. This model has run in the past two cycles as well, though Sam Wang famously said he'd eat a bug if Donald Trump won the election because his model predicted no path to victory for the eventual winner of the 2016 election. Also includes projections for Senate and House.
• JHK Forecasts - the earliest model on the scene this cycle. Jack Kersting's model is one of the newer ones this year and also includes projections for Senate and House.
• The Economist - this is the model run by G. Elliott Morris, who previously had a midterm election model under The Crosstab.
• Niskanen Center - Rachel Bitecofer's projection, which only seems to update a couple times a cycle. Part of this has to do with Bitecofer's central argument that there are generally no swing voters, and electoral fundamentals drive the outcome of the election. This was put to the test in the 2018 midterms, where Bitecofer very early on predicted a Democratic pickup of 40-45 seats in the House, which fell about where the election ended up.
• Lean Tossup - a foreign model from Canada. This model did relatively well in the 2019 Canadian election, but this appears to be the first time they've tried forecasting the US Presidential election. Also includes Senate and House projections.
• Primary Model - Helmut Norpoth's model does not actually change with inputs anymore. The outcome it predicts, stated as a 91% chance for President Trump to win reelection, is premised entirely on the primary vote totals in the New Hampshire and South Carolina primaries from earlier this year. Despite being a bit of an outlier against other models, this one was among the only to forecast that then-candidate Donald Trump was a favorite to win election in 2016, and has been applied to correctly predict the winner of 5 of the past 6 presidential elections.

Prediction Markets

Prediction markets are betting markets where people put money on the line to estimate the likelihood of one party winning a seat or state. Most of these markets will also tend to move depending on polling and other socioeconomic factors in the same way that prognosticators and models will work. Predictit and Election Betting Odds are prominent in this space, although RealClearPolitics has an aggregate of other betting sites as well.

so i have a bunch of thoughts to share and its too much for one post. so i will break it up into at least 3 posts maybe more. will see how it goes.
this is the first one and more rationale for it will be laid out in the future posts. i know the folks at AMD read this reddit so i am honestly hoping that my thoughts influence their thinking and hopefully the other shareholders on this board will voice their support. they have some very important launches coming in the next month and will be making decisions on pricing soon. with the developments over the past few weeks from intel and nvidia, there are some potential storm clouds forming on the horizon and there are things they can and need to do now to prepare. this launch will be important in more ways than one.
(hint: don't worry. of all the combatants i would want to be AMD if they play their cards right. they are in the best position if you can believe it. but it is important they play their cards right.)
so i have been beating a dead horse since before the launch of Rome that AMD needs to charge more for its CPUs. this is based on the fact that AMD has superior performance to Intel and that CPU demand is relatively inelastic to price. the CPU is a small component of the overall TCO and customers will spend on superior CPU performance.
i attach a couple charts for background.
chart 1 shows the rising cost of wafers. despite wafer costs skyrocketing, AMD is driving prices down. this is counterintuitive. i understand that with a shrink you get more chips per wafer, but conceptually there is really no reason to impose such aggressive disinflation on CPUs when you have superior performance. intel and nvidia and apple have all raised prices despite lower manufacturing costs because they were making a better product. amd needs to start doing the same. https://imgur.com/a/VkzSza6
chart 2 shows overall market size for PCs. you will see the price inelasticity here. usually when you lower prices you increase sales. but this is not the case with PCs. the market has been declining for over a decade and seems to have formed a bottom. despite the multi-decade disinflation in technology prices, unit sales of PCs have not increased. so demand is inelastic on the downside. and as intel (6950X) and nvidia (2080ti) and apple (iphone) have shown it is also quite inelastic on the upside. i would stipulate that in technology demand is correlated to performance. that is what consumers value. https://imgur.com/a/7FRUzDj
chart 3 shows the disparity between AMD and Intel ASP (thanks u/ingebor). you can see that despite superior performance of zen2, AMD is still priced 20-40% lower than intel! there is absolutely no need for this anymore. you may say that they need to get rid of these inferior Ryzen chips in order to support Rome. but then why is 64c Rome 50% of the price of 48c Xeon? the prices of AMDs CPUs are just not optimized. they misjudged demand for high-core count SKUs. https://imgur.com/a/F1wBAOI
with the stories of overwhelming demand for the highest core count Rome and Zen2 i think it is clear that AMD could have charged higher prices and not weakened demand. but i understand not wanting to get cocky and charge higher prices given that they are trying to capture market share.
but the competitive landscape is in great flux and AMD needs to prepare themselves financially. with what i see might be coming over the horizon in the next 18-24 months the priority should no longer solely be market share, but they need to also be mindful of building a war chest. AMD may have superior technology, but it is still weak financially compared to their competitors. they do not have the funds to act quickly and boldly. this needs to change. it is imperative that planning for the next 18-24 months needs to include this "war chest" priority.
bottom line, for the next generation of Zen3, AMD will be superior to Intel in just about every workload (except those applications that are gimped for AMD):

1. AMD needs to be more precise in pricing its SKUs and forecasting demand.
   
2. they need to use pricing to drive demand into SKUs that are abundant and away from SKUs that are scarce.
   
3. AMD will be spread across multiple nodes given that there is finite capacity at the bleeding edge. so in addition to Zen3 7nm+ Ryzen 5000, they will still produce Zen2 7nm Ryzen 3000. maybe even Zen+ 12nm Ryzen 2000 for budget Celeron-level builds.
   
4. they should anticipate a huge surge in gaming CPU demand for Ryzen 5000 with all these GPUs being launched. the reddit boards are full of people saying they are going to buy Zen3 plus XXXX GPU. everyone knows Zen3 will beat Core in single-threaded workloads and will have the best gaming chips. the clocks are rumored to be at least 4.9 GHz and certainly i expect 5+ GHz. price gaming chips higher. bin the crap out of them and charge a huge premium for the top bins. i would like to see Zen3 ryzen ASP north of $350 if not higher. 7nm+ supply is scarce, the performance will be tremendous, and gamers are fanatics. there will just be so much demand for gaming chips this winter. people are eating at home and not traveling and have disposable income and just spending their time gaming. the stars are in alignment.
   
5. if not, then there will be too much demand for Zen3 and not enough demand for Zen2. you need to price Zen3 high enough that people will be happy to buy 3800X or 3700X or 3600X and then someday upgrade to Zen3 in a year or so when prices come down.
   
6. they should anticipate huge demand for Milan. way more than the wafer supply. Xeon performance is flat and will be for at least another year. i doubt ice lake will be ready anytime soon or in quantity. so really increase prices of Milan to be at least 80% of Xeon Platinum. you are still much cheaper despite being much better in performance and TCO. there is very finite capacity for 7nm+. if they want 64c bleeding edge Milan, it will cost $10k per CPU. if they do not want to spend that much, then there is 64c Rome at $6k. if that is still too much, then there is Naples 32c for $2k.
   
7. do not be apologetic or embarrassed by this. it may feel awkward at first but you will and the customers will get used to it quickly. TSMC bleeding edge capacity is the scarce constraint. it is very valuable to have access to this capacity and make it available to customers. you made the right call in betting the firm on Zen and then going with TSMC. so the company should be rewarded for it.
   
8. moreover, customers will understand how competitive the landscape will soon become. if they appreciate having AMD democratize CPUs, and if they want AMD to democratize GPUs, then AMD needs to be financially much stronger. AMD has 2X performance over Intel at 80% the cost. customers are grateful. you don't owe them anything more. you can stop being subservient.
   
9. customers benefit from competition. customers need AMD to survive and flourish. in order for AMD to survive and provide competition, AMD needs to be equally strong financially. thus, prices need to rise. so customers will need to pay a little more for the protection AMD affords them from being gouged by intel and nvidia. customers will accept this story and they will gladly pay it as its cheap insurance. this message should be blasted by the pr department to the youtubers and media.
   

u/guileandsubterfuge has requested some Hyle discourse, so let's go!
Before AFFC: We don't know a lot about Hyle Hunt's background and family. He has a cousin, Ser Alyn Hunt, who is (like Hyle initially) working for Randyll Tarly, which suggests Hyle isn't just some random hedge knight who hooked up with Renly's army with an eye for the main chance, but that House Hunt is sworn to House Tarly, and like House Tarly, comes from the Reach. Further evidence of that is that Randyll Tarly described Hyle Hunt as part of his household. House Hunt's blazon is a stag slung on a pole, but their words are at this time unknown.
Hyle not only participated in the bet on Brienne's maidenhood, but was one of the three instigators: " Three of the younger knights had started it, he [Randyll Tarly] told her: Ambrose, Bushy, and Hyle Hunt, of his own household." (AFFC Brienne III) .
From the sound of it, Hyle had a real chance: he 'outdid' Ambrose and Bushy with his gifts and, from what we the readers know about Brienne, he put some effort into understanding Brienne and what she valued: he gave her a book of tales of knightly valour, he brought apples and carrots for her horses, and a blue plume for her helm (goes well with her eyes).
His later conduct, genuinely proposing marriage to Brienne, suggests that he might have been in earnest in his courtship (after the dickishness of starting the bet in the first place).
In AFFC: When we see Hyle on-screen, as opposed to in Brienne's memories, he's actually not the massive asshat we might have expected. Brienne expects him to claim credit for her killing the Bloody Mummers, but he gives Brienne the credit ('to his honor' our Maid of Tarth thinks AFFC Brienne V). His insistence on taking the heads back to Maidenpool (and it's clearly a super unpleasant experience for him given Brienne and Pod can't stand to be within 100 yards of him and his three rotting heads) is revealed to be for Brienne's benefit. This makes me think that Hyle is another of GRRM's morally grey characters with which he explores redemption. What will Hyle have to do for Brienne to forgive him his initial bad act, is the question I think GRRM is asking.
More than just stand up for her to Tarly, it seems, although he does really try. When Tarly tells Brienne she's not welcome beneath his roof, Hyle points out that it's actually Lord Mooton's roof, and Tarly doesn't take it well. In fact (according to Hyle) it gets Hyle Hunt sacked from Tarly's service (" "His lordship informed me that he had no further need of my sword, or my insolence. " AFFC Brienne V). Hyle then directs her to an inn, and meets her there with quite a lot of valuable intel about the state of affairs in the Riverlands and surrounds (gleaned from his cousin Alyn).
He then announces that he will be going with Brienne and Pod - in the hope that finding Sansa Stark will lead to a rich reward.
Brienne continues to not trust him, and I think she still has good reason here, more than just the fact that he was a massive dick to her in Renly's camp (and that's enough anyway IMO). When Brienne tells him "I mean to save the girl, not sell her. I swore a vow." Hyle shoots back "I don't recall that I did." And ... there's really no-one friendly to Sansa in a position to pay richly for her reward. The Blackfish is either under siege or a fugitive (depending on the chronology). Her Aunt Lysa is dead. If Hyle is expecting a substantial reward, he really must be thinking of turning her over to the Lannisters.
Then there's a bit of travelling around, including via the Quiet Isle, and Hyle continues be low-grade dickish but none-the-less a reliable travelling companion. Their journey is interrupted right before Brienne plans to ditch Hyle and set out alone with Pod, at the Inn of the Crossroads. Hyle has time to propose marriage to Brienne in what might be described as 'exceptionally unromantic terms': basically, you're rich, I'm poor, my dick works, how about it? (AFFC Brienne VII)
We don't see him fight in the 'no chance and no choice' scene but we don't see anyone but Brienne, so it's possible he does join in. When Brienne recovers from her fever, Hyle and Pod are also captives of the BWB, and Hyle has been beaten so badly he's almost unrecognisable. This suggests to me that he did fight to defend the inn and the orphans, because Brienne doing so is the only reason she hasn't been killed out of hand and, while Hyle might not be carrying a letter of passage from the king or a Lannister sword, he's been very much part of the occupation of the Riverlands.
When the three of them are taken out to be hanged, Hyle offers to kill Jaime Lannister in Brienne's stead, because she's refused. And that's the last we see of Hyle Hunt.
Hyle's narrative purpose: In some ways, Hyle is a parallel to Jaime. Brienne starts out absolutely loathing him, only to discover that he's not quite as bad as she thought. It's a very partial parallel, though, because Brienne has to revise her opinions of Jaime when she learns that the greatest sin she judged him for, Kingslaying, was actually a heroic act. No such heroic act lies in Hyle's past. I think it's worth noting, though, that his betrayal of her in Renly's camp was to deceive her, and it's remarkable how honest he proves to be in AFFC, including in places where deceit would serve him better, such as revealing his intent in seeking Sansa Stark.
This suggests to me that, if we ever learn more about the bet in Renly's camp, the three initial suitors might have been betting not just on Brienne's maidenhead, but in the expectation that she'd marry whichever of them won and it got out of hand. (Doesn't make it better). When Hyle proposes marriage again, he points out the entirely obvious fact that men would marry far worse prospects than Brienne for far less than Tarth. And, remember, Brienne learns about the bet from Tarly, who is a misogynist asshole who loathes her. We have only Tarly's word that none of them wanted to marry her, only to hit-it-and-quit it. Hunt's actual behaviour is surprisingly honest and respectful of Brienne's 'knightliness' when set against Tarly's account of the bet.
This is another narrative purpose for Hyle: he stands in stark contrast to Tarly, whose attitude to Brienne and her behaviour confirms what Brienne thinks people feel about her. Hyle most definitely doesn't feel like that, though, and not just because he wants her island. He goes out of his way and endangers his career to make sure she gets fair credit for her martial skills, and when he says to her that she's a soft girl who wants babies, well, he's not wrong - Brienne is both relieved and sad that she isn't a mother back on Tarth. Part of the reason why Hyle's in the story to such a degree (aside from the fact that he's Gaston) is, I think, to suggest to the reader that Brienne is yet another unreliable narrator on certain subjects.
I don't agree with redditors On The Other Board who argue that Jaime and Brienne is a doomed romance and Hyle Hunt is her marital destiny, but I can certainly see the possibility of an ending where, if Jaime dies and leaves Brienne a pregnant widow, Hunt would cheerfully marry her and not be bothered at raising another man's child.
However, I think it's more likely that Hunt is doomed to die. He may already be dead. It fits with Brienne's story so far that he, for example, might die saving Pod's life from the BWB when they get sick of waiting for Brienne to return. ("I'm sorry I didn't trust you. I don't know how to do that any more.") Just as she misjudged Jaime but came to understand that there was honour still within him, just as her example inspired Jaime to strive to be better than he had been, Brienne will learn that she misjudged Hyle and Hyle will have been inspired by Brienne to be better than he had been.

Intro
I recently listened to the Reverie Stream (fantastic video, really fun) and was surprised that mostly everybody expressed concern or resentment for the treatment of Big Mom. It’s been a common concern that Big Mom has been turned into a gag character. Honestly, I don’t really blame them, Oda has been doing some WEIRD things with Big Mom including the typically super obnoxious amnesia plot line (I’m going to argue the amnesia is actually brilliant later). Everybody, including me, wants all the yonko to be super hard badasses, but that is not Big Mom’s purpose. I will argue that Big Mom is a beautifully written character and the true antagonist of the first half of the New World.
Luffy’s Dark Mirror
Big Mom is a dark Mirror of Luffy’s character; the two share so many qualities they are almost the same person who followed different roads. Yes, Big Mom is a gag character, but Luffy is too. For every “that wouldn’t have worked if Big Mom wasn’t an idiot” moment, there are a dozen similar idiotic gags for Luffy. Take Luffy Gum Gum rocketing into his crew, or getting caught under water after trying Gum Gum Pin Wheel for the first time IN A SERIOUS BATTLE, but being a gag character isn’t the only thing that makes them similar.
Big Mom and Luffy share a variety of traits. In fact, if it wasn’t evil, Luffy would adore Whole Cake Island. Luffy is every bit a glutton for meat that Big Mom is for candy. They are both extremely childish and burdens to their own crew. Both adore feast and festivals and get upset at their interruption. Both are very inclusive to a variety of races and peoples.
If you aren’t convinced that Big Mom is Luffy’s mirror character, look at whole cake islands. THERE ARE LITERALLY MIRRORS EVERYWHERE. Oda could not be any more cheeky than that with that obvious yet subtle hint. The biggest complaint about Big Moms gags is that they make her look incompetent, but that’s kinda the point. She’s an incompetent, powerful threat; Just like Luffy. Ultimately, Big Mom serves as an example of what not to do, and Luffy ultimately end up growing as a Captain because of her. After Whole Cake Island, Luffy noticeably changes as a Captain after experiencing the Captaining of Big Mom (more on that later). I believe Luffy will clash with Big Mom the island after Wano, probably in Elbaf, where he will both complete his transformation into a great Captain and fulfill his promise to big Mom to “kick her ass all over the new world”
Inspirational Figure (Shanks/Mother Carmel)
Another similarity and clue as to why Big Mom is Luffy’s true antagonist for the first half of the new word is their beloved heroes. Luffy has Shanks, a pirate hero who would tell him takes of the sea. Big Mom had Mother Carmel, a woman who gave her a family. They both even have a treasure of their mentors; Luffy his hat and Big Mom her portrait. Unsurprisingly this is also the first divergence in the two’s path as one had a nurturing mentor and the other a manipulative orphan peddler. Shanks, while carefree, scolds Luffy when he’s out of line and encourages Luffy when he really needs it. Big Mom, on the other hand, had an illusion. This also marks the start of illusions, delusions, false memories, and various other mental issues being a theme for Big Moms character.
Big Moms Memory
Big Mom has a really complex character on top of an actual mental disorder. However, while I note Big Mom’s mental disorder (where she blacks out and rampages), I don’t actually believe it to be relevant to who she is otherwise. It is, however, yet another example of Big Mom having memory issues. She doesn’t remember anything when she rampages. Big Mom is plagued by a variety of memory issues.
Memory of Mother
She misremembers Mother Carmel. Big Mom still believes her maternal figure to be a saint when that couldn’t be father from the truth. Oh, and she doesn’t remember eating her. Big Mom is starting to look real forgetful.
Dialogue
If you pay careful attention, Big Mom often uses the phrase “I remember” when she speaks. Etc “I remember you said you were gonna kick my ass mugiwara.” Or “I remember you’re one of the rookies form the worst generation” (Sorry is I misquoted but it’s along those lines)
Children
Some of Big Moms children have abilities related to memory or illusions. Brulee can make illusions with mirrors. Pudding can literally alter memories, many theorize she has altered Big Moms in the past. Mont-d’Or can trap people into books, like a photo album, you know, where people keep their memories.
Defending the Amnesia
While amnesia is usually the laziest writers tool, Oda has worked really hard diligently foreshadowing it. The amnesia was thematic, just another example of Big Moms messed up memories. The question becomes, why did Oda choose to continue this theme for Big Mom in Wano. I believe Oda is continuing to show big mom having memory issues to keep it relevant to her character because he intends to wrap up Big Mom’s character at a later arc. Probably in Elbalf, the source of her memory issues, Big Mom will be forced to confront the truth and finally break the illusion.
Is Memories a Strong Enough Theme for the First Half of the New World?
Memories are absolutely a fantastic theme for the first half of the New World. At the end of the day, One Piece is about adventure, and, often, memories are the only treasures we keep from the journey. Oda confirmed memory of the journey wasn’t going to be the One Piece, but it doesn’t mean it’s not a prominent role in the story. Luffy is often powered by his memories of his friends.
Big Mom’s Dream
Big Mom’s dream is actually quite peaceful and admirable. Big Mom wants all the races of the world to be in her family and eat with her at eye level. The horrific, violent, and cannibalistic methods used to achieve this however makes Big Moms Disney-easy appearance a facade (another illusion-yes, I am beating that dead horse). Dreams are the very essence of one piece, and Luffy actually lives his life as inclusively as Big Mom. But while both are highly inclusive, Big Mom is driven by the value of family, as she learned from Mother Carmel, and Luffy’s, inspired by Shanks, believes in freedom. Luffy fought for the freedom of his crew mate Sanji was Big Mom was trying to force him into his family. I believe that Luffy isn’t done freeing people from Big Mom’s family.
Katakuri
Luffy fights Katakuri in the mirror World (doesn’t feel as subtle anymore, does it?). While Luffy’s ultimate antagonist is his character mirror Big Mom, katakuri was his physical mirror, and superior. I never thought of this until I began writing this, but in a way, Katakuri is fighting his own mother, as Luffy is her mirror. As the fight went on, Katakuri started to believe in what Luffy was fighting for, freedom. He ends up tossing aside his mask (another illusion metaphor, continuing to beat that horse) and freeing himself from the role of the family’s perfect son. Big Mom has a huge family, but because their is no freedom, there is little genuine love. It’s super corny, but Luffy shows how freedom can lead to authentic, genuine loving relationships, some even stronger than family.
More Evidence Big Mom is Not Done in Wano
Katakuri asks if Luffy will come back and defeat Big Mom (between the lines: will you free my family) and concedes defeat when Luffy says yes. Luffy then puts a hat over Katakuri’s face. This is a sign of respect, but also, Luffy has only put hats on people when he’s going to fight for them or protect them. Yes, it’s usually the straw hat, but it’s close enough for me. Luffy may have not fully freed Katakuri (yet), but he has freed someone else.
Jinbe
Jinbe allied himself to Big Mom after the fall of White Beard. Of the 4 yonko, Fishman Island is protected by Big Mom, Luffy’s mirror. Jinbe aligns himself to the person with the power to protect his people that was most like Luffy, but inclusion came at a cost with Big Mom. We all know what happened at the end of the day
Is Big Mom Weak - My Gripe with the Reverie
Because Big Mom is such a gag character, it’s easy to write her off as weak compared to the other yonko. Some of then did argue that it makes the straw hats look good, not Big Mom bad, but they did so VERY begrudgingly (again I get it, we want her to be badass). HOWEVER! YOUTUBERS! ALL THE EVIDENCE IS UNDER YOUR NOSE
Jinbe (Again)
For two whole years Jinbe was working for the Big Mom pirates. TWO YEARS. This man is one of the wisest most experienced dudes out there, you don’t think he was observing Big Mom, thinking of ways to deal with her. Remember when we wondered for YEARS where Jinbe was after Fishman island and the very first thing we see him to is immediately placate a raging Big Mom? Jinbe, who was part of the shikibukai, a group of pirates pretty much designed to fight yonko, should be able to stall a yonko. Big Mom has often looked foolish because of the straw hats, but it’s usually when Jinbe was there.
Other Straw Hats
Brook has a devil fruit that counters Big Mom. He’s significantly weaker than Big Mom, but his powers are just enough to damage or affect Big Mom. Nami is a clever weather goddess that turned Big Mom against herself. Franky has vegapunk tech.
Big Mom Looks Bad
It’s true that she’s a gag character, and it can be hard to take her seriously. She gets clowned more than the other yonko. She’s so powerful and yet multiple supernova were able to invade her land and make her look bad. Big Mom is definitely an incompetent yonko, to the point where it seems like her kids take care of her. AND LUFFY SEE’S ALL OF IT.
Luffy’s Development
Luffy straight up challenges big mom to a fight on Fishman Island, his very first island in the New World. This was the typical super reckless Luffy, and yet Zoro and Sanji stood by his side as they realistically knew they’d have to challenge the Big Mom Pirates eventually. Then, in the very best Island Luffy gets defeated by Ceaser, and Zoro CHEWS HIM OUT!! Tells him to get a grip and take things seriously. Luffy starts out in the new world as aloof and goofy as Big Mom is. In fact, what Ceaser does to Luffy is a lot like what the Straw Hats do Big Mom. Luffy agrees to this, but still acts rather recklessly throughout the next few arcs. Abandoning plans left and right, leaving for whole cake when he should go to Wano, fighting Donflamingo. My point is, Luffy is a reckless, aloof mess of a Captain.
But then Luffy goes to Whole Cake Island and sees how a Captain like him can be bad. He sees how Big Mom’s children get in their own way trying to placate Big Mom. He sees how Big Mom’s carelessness leaves her exposed. Luffy knows Big Mom is stronger than him, he keeps telling her he’s not ready to fight her, and yet Morgan’s isn’t wrong, he bested her. Then we get to Wano.
Immediately after entangling with Big Mom, Luffy has some of the most noticeable characters growth I have ever seen from him. Luffy is stern when it’s time to get serious, not always donning his signature carefree smile. He’s also starting to actively give orders in Wano, even to allies that aren’t in his crew. He’s also concerned about Law’s plans and people following them (even though he still misses the point). Luffy saw his own weaknesses in Big Mom and learned from them.
Luffy NEEDS to Overcome Big Mom
Big Mom is Luffy’s dark mirror that he needs to defeat before fighting his foil, Blackbeard. Luffy has already grown from fighting Big Mom. Additionally, the Straw Hats have clashed with the Big Mom Pirates on every New World Island except Punk Hazard. Defeating Big Mom will mark that Luffy has overcome his own weaknesses and that he’s ready for his next arena, the end game of One Piece.
TL;DR Big Mom is a joke because she’s Luffy’s mirror and an amplification of his flaws. Oda has subtlety been using Big Mom to develop Luffy as a Captain and will finish their fight and development in the next island, probably Elbalf. When it’s time for Big Mom’s final fight, I bet you see will look exceedingly bad ass.

I'm back and going through Battle of the Exes 2. Long in depth thoughts through each episode with a TL:Doverall thoughts of the season at the end. Ran out of room to add much more preamble to this so check out previous posts if you're interested.
Battle of the Exes II
EP 1:
Going just by the quick intro it looks like their budget went up. Lot of glances at much more involved challenges.
Not Johnny R again. :/
Fucking Knight again with a mullet.
CT saying he shaved his beard since Diem was going to be there is hilarious.
Wes looking skinny these last couple seasons is so weird.
I like John the rookie comedian immediately. Very self aware, which doesn't seem like it'd be good for this show.
CT and Diem pairs again? I mean I didn't assume she'd be with someone else, but seems weird to do the same duo a second time.
"..and she had no gag reflex." Zach is gross and a douche right from the jump.
Sarah and Jordan seem like a good pair.
Nany "I have options" wow, self burn?
Bananas?!?! Damn Nany, literally who don't you go through? No judging but damn, Bananas?!
If Theresa is strong this season, her and Wes could be great. I feel like her perception of a strong challenger came out of nowhere last season though.
This first like 5 minutes seems more explicitly sexual than any of the previous seasons lol Straight up talking about gag reflexes, world class bj's, getting caught in the bathroom. They like pushing the exes and hook up factor super hard?
Wait...so was Dustin just lying his ass off last season? He said he had some "agreement" with Heather but that he was single on Free Agents? So he wasn't and THAT's what Jessica was talking about at the reunion?
Most of these rookies just seem like they were cast by some completely other production company or something. They seem like they were cast for comedic possibilities, rather than actual personalities. It just seems like a huge swing in casting style. I hope this isn't like a shifting in focus?
I love CT, I will try not to say it as often this season.
"Take my dog on the most ridiculous vacation." Wes has his priorities straight
I swear "Shut the fuck up" is the most common words to come out of Bananas' mouth.
OK, these houses are really getting ridiculous. This place looks like a resort.
Dustin seems like he's trying too hard. Like he's trying to pick up on this Jessica/Jay joke/rumor, but he just kind of runs too much with it and just keeps going on. But it seems like it's more to appease the people around rather than like he actually cares? It seems so weird and awkward?
Bus and flying to another bus to just the first comp? They definitely got their budget upped this season. Last season all the comps were in the same damn watering hole lmao
Not to be an instant naysayer, but I hate these kind of comps. They're just boring as hell. Oh, you gotta walk across a big height and you might fall. The effect is more on the cast than viewers, it just becomes boring and repetitive for viewers.
CT seemed to have the best idea, but Diem seemed to not want to do it. Just get a big push and hang on while CT holds her. They did it the first little bit, but it didn't seem like she pushed all that hard.
I feel like a Wes first power couple is the best possible choice for potential drama.
I'm glad Theresa's sketchy ass vote from Free Agents has stuck with her. Purely because it was just so stupid.
"The Banana one"
Johnny just trying to nonchalantly swim over to listen to their convos.
Wes trying to get on the good side of rookies? Seems like a bold strategy. They're a lot more volatile and emotional and probably a lot easier to break and beat down the line. But also more likely to fuck you somewhere along the line.
I feel like sending Bananas in right away is dumb when you know he'll likely stay. At least get an idea for the eliminations before you send him in. So you have better knowledge. Him and Nany are probably automatically in the top 3 or 4 of pairs for the whole season. Sending them against some rookies is just dumb.
Is Dustin on the outs really because of his gay porn? Or is it just because he's awkward and seems to get along with the women a lot more than the guys? I could definitely see a lot of these guys being put off by the dude being in gay porn, but he also just seems like he's trying too hard all the time.
"You threw me in on the ruins." I feel like that is extremely putting The Ruins lightly.
Wes really just seems like he's having fun with this meeting. Like he just wants to scare Johnny.
Yeah, I could literally see that conversation ending with Wes saying "I'm not throwing you in, I'm just messing with you." and that being why Johnny says "Fuck you for even making me have this conversation then." I feel like Wes was having fun with it and editors wanted to use it for suspense.
Dustin and Jessica going in first really does seem like a "random" ass choice... You literally could have thrown in the other Johnny and said he skated by last season and you can't have it happen again. Or anything. Seems weird to say Jessica/Dustin are in the middle so...bye.
This comp looks simple but interesting still. I like it.
Welp, Dustin/Jessica gone. I feel like there was something more going on with this social dynamic in some way.
Drunken Diem dancing. A Diem season staple.
Weird, seeing the people leaving?
The Challenge actually enacting twists? I kind of liked the purity and straight forward aspect of the show! :/
Exes II: Ponderous edition
EP 2:
The Real World Explosion is such a dumb name. Ran out of dynamic locations?
"Get the fuck over it! Something happened you didn't like in the past!" Well, Jordan has a way with words... I think I'm getting the character turn...
Well it seems Johnny has already established the friendship in the house and that everyone is going to have his side.
A suck and blow competition, yeah they're definitely leaning in to it.
Johnny not getting by this season! lol
If Avery and Johnny somehow win, I feel like Avery is an episode away from quitting.
Ok, this ball and bat section is hilarious.
Can you not just spit the peanut butter out? You just have to get it off with your tongue, not eat it? Did I miss that part of the instructions?
Apparently they couldn't just spit it out?
"Vets, vets, vets!" Just really helping Wes and his case of getting the rookies after you aren't you Bananas?
Wes and Bananas going back to back? Will they go for it?
Nany being the one who's wanting to pull the trigger? lol
Nany ain't fuckin' around this season. Damn.
Theresa fucking this up more than anything. You're just being stubborn. Did you learn these habits from Laurel?
"You'd be dumb not to put us in." Theresa, sit down.
Uh oh. Diem not feeling well :( Every Diem moment is just going to be ominous.
They're really just repeating this boring elimination challenge? That definitely seems like a choice.
I would love nothing more than for Johnny to go out his very first elimination.
Damn, Johnny gets to stay. Not a big let down as the other two seem entirely forgettable. I just wanted Johnny out for spite.
Nany just seems to have come in to this season with a mission to be confrontational. Why does Avery being jealous and not ok with with you and Johnny happening have to be addressed? Just give it time and let it try to develop?
This weird Jay stuff is....weird.
It's a bummer with how CBS all access puts up the ads for their site because the Diem and Knight memorial pictures flash on the screen for like a half second before going to a commercial and coming back to the previews.
EP 3:
I figured this, but Johnny seems childish.
CT being pulled by producer?!
Geesh, CT is not having any of this. Killer look to the producer and just puts the phone off speaker lol Good for you CT.
Man, this is heart crushing too watch.
Oh god, seeing Nia actually sucking her thumb is unsettling. Stop it!
God this is sad and soul crushing. I can't do this!
"Only way I usually go home this early is when I hit somebody." Still able to joke lol
Well there went about a third of this seasons competitiveness.
Bananas and Jordan walking in talking about the possibilities of the comp doesn't really seem all that standoffish to me.
Jenna, your face ain't all that cute and you seem to have the personality of a brick wall.
Theresa's hand getting stuck lmao "MY HAND! MY HAND! MY HAND!" It kept you on, count it as a blessing.
I can't wait for Knight and Pennsetucky to go.
Jemmye off instantly, maybe I'll get what I want this episode.
Zach not waiting until the final to start screaming at his female partner...
I'm assuming players must have wised up to the fact that it's not always benneficial to go last? Especially on something like this where it could rain and effect grip. Just put yourself a couple groups back to get an idea but not last in case it does rain.
Simone and John must be gone here. I thought John would be funny and interesting to have in the house but he's had literally zero screen time since the introductions.
"I want Bananas in the final." What in the fuck? What are you smoking Jordan? You're just going past hoping to have yourself in the final, but you want to have Bananas beside you guys to beat him?
"I'm the same way, out of all the girls in the house, I never want to say your name." The unsaid part of "Your partner on the other hand..."
The problem with playing the middle game Sarah is that sooner or later it becomes hard to hide what you're doing because someone expects you to show your hand or make a decision sooner or later.
The good news though, is that this game is better when there is apposing sides politically. One big alliance just ruins the game, just look at modern Big Brother. It destroys the game and makes it not worth watching.
Food eating Elim?
Oh shit...a replacement for CT/Diem? I actually didn't expect that. Hopefully some good competitors.
Well what the shit, why even say shit? Jesus.
Oh shit, they brought back I Can from the duel but with food? NICE! I actually liked that comp idea, but thought it wasn't handled well at all.
Milk on the table makes me think spicy stuff.
Simmone...chick. It's a betting challenge and you go lower...
These guys are completely clowning the Are You The One cast lol
Don't give me weird ass slow mo while he's inserting a damn brownie in his mouth.
These rookies man...
"A little urgency!"
These rookies have no damn drive. Jesus.
The first vet that gets eliminated is going to have an easy ass time with whatever the hell Exile is. Just filling up that house with all these shitty rookies.
EP 4 - EP7 missing. It was probably a lot of celebrating. Knight and Pennsetucky get taken out, then Johnny/Nany. "Groupon pussy" was an amazing line that was said. Rookies still suck. blah blah blah
EP 8:
I'm going to start this episode by bitching about how much the CBS all access app/site sucks. The app is terrible, I constantly get double dose of ads, the app literally needs reset every 2 episodes because the app itself gets bogged down and starts lagging. The website constantly just freezes up between ad breaks and flipping back to the show. I've had times where the episode didn't keep track of my progress on an episode and I had to fast forward through the episode and I then had to sit through all 3-4 ad breaks before it got to where it needed to be.
I'm usually all for the Rookies coming in and fucking up the game and killing the vets gang up mentality, but the rookies this season are just damn terrible. They're not interesting, they have no real killer mentality, they stuck competitively. This cast is booty.
Sarah having to be the one too initiate some kind of team bonding is a damn bummer. Jordan is an asshole and it sucks Sarah wants a win that bad that she's the one to suck it up and feed in to Jordans ego.
TJ telling the crew about the guys having to be on the outside makes think this definitely comes up and isn't just a safety thing.
"Too fucking easy. I hesitated." Yeah, Leroy and Nia probably would have killed that if Nia didn't hesitate so long.
Jonna being able to jump back in time was great. Damn
This is a cool ass comp, but seems more cool than easy.
Zach flipping out for no reason. He just wants to flip out. Chill the fuck out.
Sarah's enthusiasm is kinda getting overboard...
Jordan completely fucked that up. He hugged the wall when coming back and yelld for Sarah to go. I mean, you gotta be the one to stay aware of where you're going and standing.
"Well, you did exactly what they told you not to do, so you need to do a better job of paying attention." TJ laying it down.
Jonna crying, Zach walks up and opens up with "I'm going to explain where all my anger is coming from..." follows up with "What did I blame you for that wasn't your fault?" God damn Zach. You flipped out for no damn reason and there was no blame, you just flipped your shit.
"You give the two black people fried chicken... I ain't even mad. I'm going to enjoy it." and "Surprise, motherfucker." I'm liking Leroy this season.
Zach asking to make Jay tremble. What in the hell is wrong with Zach?
I feel like Wes is completely lying about Zach being his number 1 just to hope he gets him thrown in lmao
"I hope you learned a lot here tonight too." "That you're a fucking snake..."
"It's guy code." Zach, shut up.
Zach instantly knowing Wes did it. I laugh knowing damn well Leroy and Nia probably went straight to Zach after talking with Wes.
I'm actually not sure who Leroy/Nia are throwing in right now. I feel like the smart play would be Zach or Wes if they're wanting to better get to the end and win, but they could easily just throw in Jay/Jenna to not make a move.
I'm guessing Jay/Jenna and all this talk really just gets Zach flipping out more after this.
Also seriously what the fuck is happening with the Exile house? There's four couples after this?
I don't understand them all fawning over Wes being such a great manipulator. He really didn't say much other than "Don't throw me in, throw my biggest partner in so you become my biggest partner." What?! You people are so easily swayed and accepting of just anything?
Going to Jay and Jenna and demanding a thanks lmao wow what a power trip
A sledgehammer elimination...for Jordan. Eesh this guy doesn't get the best luck when it comes to elim's
Oh nevermind, he's killing it lol
Zach is definitely doing this stupidly. He's getting barely any surface area of the hammer on the beam. He's basically trying to chop the damn thing in half by hitting the corner of the hammer.
Jordan walking to the beam and away from it to hand sarah the hammer is just about the same way the rookies have approached these elims.
They're somehow selling the Jonna and Sarah closeness but they seem farther apart than Jordan and Zach were. Editing!
Really hope Sarah gets a win here.
Zach still just whining because Jonna is getting words of encouragement lol
Hey it looks like Johnny and Nany may actually have some competition now.
Seriously if someone isn't coming back like right now this is the most bullshit twist. Ok, there's instantly a tease for it. I was about to say...
EP 9:
Wes getting this far and then getting messy out of fear? Where have I seen this before?
Jordan saying "I'm done wheeling and dealing." Your mark on this season is mostly not making deals lol
Jordan being mad at how Theresa talks to people is fucking hilarious. Wes calling it out. "On the asshole scale you are easily over Theresa."
I get where Jordan is coming from not just wanting to help the biggest competition in Wes. But if he plans on future appearances on The Challenge, it's real damn dumb to just show vets that you aren't open to working together at the end.
Jordan is completely bullshitting lol He started talk about Theresa by saying he didn't want to make the deal because he doesn't like the way Theresa acts and talks to people. Like she's queen of the place and she's a bitch. Why would Wes even bring up Theresa to compare Jordan to if he didn't talk shit first? Just randomly picks his partner to compare Jordan to?
"We're here and now, not ten years ago with roided up Wes." hahahahahaha
I honestly wouldn't say Wes used to do roids, he more seems like the rivals 1 final completely altered how he prepares for these challenges. It's like he died in that final and switched to way more focus on running and endurance and slimmed the hell down. Especially after fresh meat 2 where it seemed like he could get by pretty well on talent and politicking so why not just prepare more for the final?
Wes' heart looks like it's in his damn stomach as soon as he walks in to the dome.
Leroy "What the fuck ya'll clapping for?!"
There's been a whole losers bracket? Where the fuck has that been shown?!
Wes instantly "It's going to be Bananas"
Wes is instantly not enthused. He looks miserable.
I hate that this losers bracket has just gone on and not been shown at all. Was this maybe shown on their website at the time or something?
In Wes' eyes this would just fucking suck. You played a pretty damn good political game. Had a lot of weaker people going just to further help Banana's and Nany to get back in the game with 1 or 2 challenges left before the finals. And they're coming back with a lot of momentum. I'd be pissssssed.
I'm all for it from a tv watcher though, because otherwise this would have been a landslide boring season.
Another elim rehash. I wasn't a huge fan of this one though. At least this time around they aren't having to pull around a fucking 10 inch rope.
Is...Zach and Jonna winning this?
Jordan helping Bananas is like the dumbest twist of fate ever. The guys by all accounts hated each other. Bananas would probably beat Jordan in most challenges and final. Is it solely out of anger for Wes? lol
I am so confused on what happened during that? By all appearances Zach and Jonna had an easier set of rope/knots to work with, were shown well behind multiple times. Then all of a sudden it's like Zach/Jonna made zero progress.
Zach blaming Jonna lmao Fucking Zach
There's Bananas being that "Humble winner" that he loves to tout and bitch about Jordan with...
I think Wes is overstating just how much he's done, but it would absolutely blow to get to this point and just have your worse adversary come back in the game.
Bananas on the fucking high horse all over again... I really don't understand when people say they don't know where the Bananas hate comes from. He talks like he plays a certain way, but then when you actually see him play...it's nothing like how he talks about. It's bullshit. He's a douche. Talking all this shit about Wes making a ddeal with the devil. We can bring up how much shit you've done to get to some of your finals dude. The island, making a deal with Ev to fuck over your own alliance, to only fuck them over again and leave out the girls. The ruins fucking over everyone and passing it off as "fair" and what everyone wants, until it gets down to you and you flip your shit that you're going to go in. You've constantly played like shit all the way up to Free Agents where you actually had to do shit and then you had the constant best partners since then with Frank and now Nany.
Wes trembling.
Hey, I remember this challenge from Fresh Meat... The show has come a long way from throwing balls around while standing on tree stumps to now being elevated above water and doing it.
Nia literally can't stand? lol
TJ advocating for someone to quit?! Who is this man?!?! I've never seen this man before.
Damn! Jordan got a huge ball hit on Wes lol Point blank head shot that apparently Wes didn't see coming at all.
Leroy trying not to jump lol
I feel like everyone should have been throwing that to Bananas. Let him put the blood on his own hands. He has a choice of either going back on his word or give Wes an easy win. See which matters more to him. Ya'll just did his work for him, making sure Wes goes to the dome and then being able to jump out and not have to worry about going in. Ya'll dumb.
Jordan suddenly being a fucking Johnny boot licker is certainly fucking something.
Yeah Leroy, Ya'll are stupid. You can't talk much shit Leroy, you would have been talked in to doing the same shit. You put in Zach instead of Wes only because Wes said not to lol
Apparently people in this game don't view returning players the same way as Survivor or Big Brother. Those mother fuckers instantly have a target on their backs when they come back in no matter what the party lines are(most of the time). How you don't instnatly just throw them back in the dome seems crazy. You already left once, why should someone who's made it this far deal with the risk of possibly going home? At least that's usually the mentality around this type of situation.
Nia is at least calling it true. I'm not saying it isn't the worse of the decisions, but she's definitely calling it true as hell.
This Nany/Johnny vs Nia blowup is my life. Give them alllllllll the shit.
The thing that wasn't talked about enough is how Johnny threw it knowing he'd be safe and knowing Leroy would be going in. Leroy got used and played and doesn't even realize it.
Ep 10:
Theresas smile during this fight is Chef's kiss
Sarah being straight up. "Yeah, I want to make this easier for myself going forward. It's a game." I think Nia is 100% vindicated in what she's saying about Johnny/Nany, but the reasoning behind it doesn't matter.
Fucking Johnny trying to talk fucking shit afterward. Seriously going to Leroy like nothing was done out of line and acting like Nia is insane and ruining everything. Somehow Johnny just keeps being able to play his bullshit politics and act like he's the nice guy afterward.
Crazy to think Sarah's been on 8 seasons already. Maybe because of the early dq's with teammates makes it seem smaller but I feel like it hasn't been that damn many.
I hate the echo chambers that these games create within themselves. Everyone who came up with the decision, who agrees to the decision, and is in no way getting screwed by the decision sitting in a room laughing about the people being upset being insane is just hilariously blind and inept.
I am liking the trend of not showing these elims until the contenders see it.
Hall brawl....Well bye Wes/Theresa. Sucks for you that you played a pretty great game and get fucked over by a twist.
Just for reference it isn't just that it's Nany/Johnny walking back in the game that makes me dislike the twist. I don't usually like twists at all in these shows unless they're known by everyone before hand so they can be played around. Even if CT and Diem walk back in the house somehow I'd still have an issue with it.
I think Wes knows they're already out. He doesn't look in it at all.
Both teams envisioning Nany is pretty hilarious.
Yeah, I'm not sure what that Wes strategy was...
I feel like Wes has a history of quietly quitting when he knows he's already lost. He quit against Ev in FM 2, and now he just lays down and says his head hurts?
"He's fine, he's being a pussy. Karma's a bitch." What in the hell did Wes do? Put you in to get eliminated? lol Fuuuuuck Johnny. "It's a game" "It's a game" "It's a game", but also get killed, karma's a bitch, you're being a pussy.
I literally don't know what Wes is doing lol but man I'm so fucking tired of hearing Johnny talk.
Jordan being an ass licker to Johnny after two whole seasons of Johnny talking non stop shit about him is fucking depressing. What happened to all that pride and ego talk?
It's on one part funny to watch Wes' downfall, but at the same time it's so agrevating watching it come from a twist and at the shit hands of Johnny while he talks shit.
I am not ready for the amount of times I'm going to see Johnny on seasons going forward :/
It was weird hearing shit talking of Nia sucking her thumb and then suddenly seeing it a lot this season. It's fucking WEIRD.
"It was Jordan who did it, you can't blame Bananas." Leroy, you are god damn stupid lol Johnny was talking about this shit before the competition even happened.
Apology tour. Kind of worthless at this point. There's slim pickings and it all doesn't really matter too much at this point.
Seeing the city stuff made me get excited for the idea of a city final again. We were robbed!!!!!
I literally can't get passed the Jordan ball licking of Bananas. What in the holy hell heppened?!
This is kind of a boring challenge to watch leading in to the final...
Why am I still dealing with Jay and Jenna on this damn show?!
At least it seems like these rookies won't skate by to the final and will actually see an elim. I'd rather the vets not have an easy win. The three teams other than the rookies would be a pretty good final as long as Sarah doesn't heat stroke out of this one like Cutthroat.
Uh oh, guess I counted Jordan/Sarah in too soon.
Bananas urging Nany and yelling for her to go and then falling himself is beautiful.
Johnny instantly saying "You know I love you guys" I fucking hate this guy.
They're arguing hahaha Sarah wants to stick to the same damn plan of keeping light weight and Jordan wants to lick fucking boots.
Johnny being upset hahahahahaha
Fuck Johnny. Angry they're not seeing a challenge! hahah Johnny will literally flip every fucking thing on its head when it comes down to him.
Hahahahaha Johnny, if you were concerned about that so much why were you fine with Leroy and Nia going in? Oh because now it's you going in?
I don't get the Johnny love. This dude is 100% fucking two faced. He passes it off like he's this extremely loyal smart player, but all that shit goes out the window when he can say anything against him going in.
Sarah is playing the vet and Johnny's style of game of making their way easier and cutting the fat. He's just mad his arguments are being used against him.
EP 11:
Sarah's absolutely right. "They taught me how to play this way, and now want me to play the nice girl. The nice girl game has fucked me."
Nia mad they don't have the easy elim as well lol
Johnny trying to pretend they would throw in the rookies is fucking hilarious. He talked about it being a game the entire last episode. He screwed over Leroy and Nia and jumped out knowing they wouldn't go in.
I fucking hate Johnny. He's a complete hypocrite.
Nany, Nia and Johnny ganging up on the girl who is the most chipper and least argumentative or confrontational of probably anyone who's been cast ever is definitely something. You guys played too many seasons with Frank.
My favorite thing about the location changes is there is always someone who has to ask where the location is lol
Johnny, I literally don't care if you're excited about something or not. This show is literally your career. You can deal with it.
"Wish I could actually be happy I was here." what a whiny bitch.
I'm with Jenna, down with seafood. Fuck seafood!
The team who hasn't been in an elimination "I've worked my ass off to be here." You're already talking like a vet.
Johnny "I can't deal with anyone else being smart or happy" Bananas
The buddy up between Nany and Nia has surprised me the most. What?! lol How does Johnny just screw people over and ends up best friends again the next day.
Is this Johnny/Evan/Kenny all over again? Sarah already lived through that saga.
Jesus Nia...
"Can we just eat and have one decent fucking day?" Of course Johnny would be the fucking one to say this shit. Talk all kinds of shit, encourage abuse, and then act like you're the victim and just want an easy day. Like you aren't the miserable stupid fuck making is miserable because oh no you have to go into an elimination.
If Nia gets kicked I actually will be bummed. It's deserved, but I wanted to see Leroy/Nia vs Nany/Johnny...again.
"Nia's gone, as if I didn't have enough to think about right now." Oh poor you Johnny. Let's somehow make Nia being taken away about you lol
"I should be able to just relax right now." Mother fucker you should be home. You literally got eliminated weeks ago. You had a twist that got you back in the game and are now going back in to an elimination. You're not owed shit.
I don't want Jay/Jenna in this final even the slightest bit, but fuck off Johnny. Fuck that entitled vet bullshit.
"You've had six eliminations, anything can happen." Of course you'd count the elims to come back in that we didn't even get to see lol you faced some week ass rookies.
Damn you Jay. Nany and Jenna falling in water would have been amazing.
I really don't want Johnny to just have an easy in to the fucking final.
"Nia crossed the line physically with someone and we take that seriously."....now
Do you seriously bring in Leroy another partner right in front of Sarah's face when you pulled her out fucking twice? Once for the same fucking circumstances?!!
Wooooooooooooow
They brought back Theresa to be Leroys partner for just this elim. I'm kind of pissed, but it was also wanted, but also kind of glad? I have so many conflicted feelings.
Fuck this noise in the face of Sarah. Kinda makes sense because she was already there. But at the same time she shouldn't get another chance. But she's going against another team who got another chance. I'm.....kind of ok with it? Mainly because it's against Johnny/Nany, If it was the same circumstance and Johnny/Nany hadn't come back before hand, I don't think I'd be as fine with it. Especially with Sarah sitting right there lmao
Johnny fucking yelling "Owww" Karma's a bitch I think you've said Johnny? Or "He's fine, he's being a pussy"?
Fuck Johnny!
"That's yours Nany! That's your x!" Please get it, because I failed to.
Seriously, when did the perception of Theresa shift over the last couple seasons? All of a sudden Theresa is seen as some challenge threat, where they said she was an upgrade to Nia, they talked her up the previous season as well.
Hahaha I love TJ clearly not standing at a point where he can watch Theresa kick Nany in the face repeatedly lmao he could very clearly just step to that side and watch it all happen, but he decides to keep it as a blind spot hahaha
I would have rather seen Leroy/Johnny both in the final vs Sarah, but god am I happy to see Johnny/Nany gone.
Theresa's first final and yesterday she was at home. Geesh, I am not a fan of twists.
"I would have expected my own mother to screw me over before Sarah." Johnny is such a peice of shit lmao He will literally die on any hill he talks up.
I could honestly see Jay and Jenna quitting lmao
Troll tolls!
They didn't even bother giving Theresa a different jersey lol
"I wanna go out a winner." Sarah talking about being done with The Challenge?
Jay and Jenna are so fucked lmao "We are, of course, going to finish." Yeah....that exact moment makes me think you won't.
I like that TJ still blows the horn as a necessity lol It can't be heard, no one can even see it, but sure let's blow the horn.
EP 12:
Jumping out of a helicopter to swim to a kayak would be fun as hell
"I would shut up a lot of people who talk a lot of crap about me"-Theresa. Have you watched the last couple seasons? People talk you up a lot. You were getting picked first in Free Agents some times over Laurel. In both exes you were considered one of the strongest girls. I know people may not like you but I feel like the last couple seasons you've been considered one of the best competitors for the girls.
Leroy being the one to get yelled at by the girl is hilarious.
"I could buy tons of shoes...a house. I wouldn't have to talk to my family anymore." What?! Jenna why are you still on this season?! lol
Hey, Nia called it. A word puzzle.
Nooooo you left th....ok they ran back and screwed them up. Jesus almost made a rookie mistake of leaving the puzzle there solved.
Hahaha cut back to Jay and Jenna talking about them working so hard to get here.
Flashbacks to Sarah getting DQ'd because of her partners lol in the final where Leroy gets a partner given to him.
What the hell is this path? lol cows now goats.
God damn, Sarah and Jordan take those first glasses like champs. Damn!
Quit calling it flip cup. It's not the same thing! lol
They're talking about Leroy and Theresa being on the heels of Sarah and Jordan when they're just now getting to the cows. They aren't even to the goats yet lol They aren't on their heels at all.
Yeah, Sarah and Jordan are gone and still no Leroy/Theresa
Jay and Jenna fucking walking after the checkpoint lol wow
I could get through almost all sick food things, but this weird half solid liquid would be a damn struggle for me lol
I need a counter for how many times Jenna says "whatever" for no reason
I can not imagine puking multiple times and forcing yourself to jog afterward lmao
"Oh it's a drinking game." Jenna says before seeing whats in the cups
I almost want to puke watching this.
The role reversal with Jenna haha
I will be SHOCKED if they aren't quitting. Shocked
People saying "I've never quit" have almost certainly quit.
"Are you crying? Are you serious?!" TJ, I love you.
Jay/Jenna, I wanna give you shit because you took Johnny and Nany's spot in the final making it a really interesting final, but at the same time. Johnny kind of made his own bed.
"You know how much shit twitter is going to give us?" Flashes twitter handles!!! I am dead. straight dead.
"A TUBE!!!!!!!"
First flip cup, now corn hole.
That's a huge goddamned lead blown. There had to be some struggling that wasn't shown. Jesus.
Theresa acting like she's shocked they're puking because of this caviar.
30 min time limit on this checkpoint doesn't seem to make sense if they have to run back for the rocks. Why even bother running and eating more tubes if you can just sit there and not tire yourself out? You don't even have to make it blatent, just struggle to eat the caviar.
I feel like the editing isn't doing a great job, or just don't have much to work with lol They're trying to paint like Leroy and Theresa are right on the heels of Sara/Jordan, but every time they show Leroy/Theresa they're barely traveling at all, but when they're showing Sarah and Jordan, outside of her having to stop to shit, they have been going fast as hell.
This sleeping situation lol
Theresa talking TRUTH!!!!! Johnny don't give a fuck about you Leroy. You're an idiot.
"What happened to Wes?" He got fucked by a twist...
"So I guess they were a layup." That's fucking right!
Five minute lead is pretty ridiculous. But I hate two day finals anyways, so...
Didn't Leroy have trouble on a climb previously? Or am I just thinking of Zach? I'm not sure.
Happy to see Sarah/Jordan get a win.
I have a feeling this reunion will be really interesting. Hope it has a good host.
If anything, this season has made me like Leroy more. Even though he got played and fails to realize it.
I completely forgot CT/Diem were on this season.
Reunion:
Weird to have Nia on the reunion?
Fucking Nia starting already. Jesus christ.
Johnny is such a whiny bitch. "I have never played that game." What in the hell lmao
Johnny trying to have the high ground here is hilarious.
"She will never win again because she branded herself a traitor." I love LOVE that Johnny has been able to shake off how he played with Kenny/Evan lmao The difference between Johnny and Sarah is that Sarah had the balls to just straight up make the move where Johnny just sits in the back while he convinces others to do it for him.
"Sexual harassment usually does that." Zach with the perfect statement on Nia. Why the fuck is she on the reunion? They just wanted someone on Johnny's side to talk shit to Sarah?
"This is the first season I've ever had any drama with girls." You came in to the house with previous drama. You can't come in to the season and immediately call out Theresa if there already wasn't a past. There may not have been a lot of drama, but that's basically a lie.
"There was a catalyst that got her to that point." Can we cut to an episode before where Johnny was calling Nia a fucking psycho and that she was off her rocker? lmao That's befor the supposed catalyst that Johnny is trying to excuse for Nia.
This is the type of shit of WHY I HATE JOHNNY it's so god damn clear how he plays, but he fucking tries to bitch about how other people play. Johnny outside of the house or on the face of everything he will be loyal as possible. He will defend people, like NIA, he will trash anyone who goes against any of his people, but he will turn around and have Jordan put Leroy/Nia in the elimination and act like it's just the smart move. He catches no fucking shit for it. It doesn't fucking stick to him because he isn't the one doing it. He's a spineless hypocrite.
Fuck this noise of trying to excuse Nia. Nia even being on the reunion is ridiculous but everyone standing up for her is absurd. They're mad at sarah and jordan so they'll excuse anything.
Wes really seems like he leaves the challenge house and just lets go of everything. He comes to these reunions and barely says a word.
Haha Everyone saying the layup was smart, but everyone mad at Sarah for using it. That makes sense lmao
"Everyone got a second chance and I went home. Even her(Theresa) Yeah Wes, you kinda got screwed.
Johnny HATES Wes getting all this praise for playing a great game.
Johnny saying Wes promises everyone everything and then gets them eliminated one by one his hilarious considering CT(I'm pretty sure it was him) said that about Johnny's game in a previous season.
Was really about to wonder if they were going to mention Knight and Diem. They kind of do them dirty only having them at the last 5 minutes and just having the biggest asshole at the reunion talk about Knight.
Overall Season thoughts:
Kind of a middling to lower season for me. Half the cast was complete filler and uninteresting. Rookies weren't only bad they just had no real fight or drive in them at all. I don't like twists in these games at all and to see one handled so poorly made me hate it even more. Nothing was shown of the exile at all, we as viewers didn't even know what was going to happen with them until suddenly Johnny/Nany show up. It also ultimately did nothing but make one episode interesting and get Wes out of the house. Literally every person on the season got a second chance but Wes lol that's just hilarious and fucked up.
That being said, I think Wes' game strategy is boring. It made most of the season boring and likely wouldn't have worked if there was even a little more people on the season who were competent.
I still hate Johnny and I'm still completely mystified when people ask about the Johnny hate or not understanding it. I seriously don't understand how you see how Johnny plays or portrays himself, but then see how he describes how he plays and portrays himself and not see a huge degree of difference between the two. He's a complete hypocrite and two faced. He will yell until he is blue in the face about being loyal and how everyone else is playing a dirty game, but he's also the same person who talks about Leroy/Nia needing to go in to beat Wes and then throwing the comp to not be the one to have to do it. He's a complete bitch and I am so damn tired of him. At least Sarah had the balls to make the move of putting him in the dome herself. She didn't throw the comp so someone else would have to do it. If you were so worried about the rookies not making the finals then why didn't you say the rookies needed to go against Wes? Oh was it because getting revenge on Wes was more important than your fake morals and making sure your alliance is safe?