Since Remix told me to post my writeups here- below is my article for Oaklawn today.
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Last week was brutal for us the track was sloppy and my picks were worse. This is 2 weeks in a row, that I have publicly struggled to put the readers on the winners. My selections won 5 out of 9 races, so the capping is there, just a few bobs and weaves away from a great day. Last week I had PARADE FIELD in the 5th who paid $20 to win, but I let the jockey change sway my opinions so much, I was negative. I usually will let a jockey downgrade affect me more than an upgrade, because I feel like we see more bad rides from mediocre jocks than great rides from good ones. Perhaps a fault, but one I can admit. With that said, we have 6 weeks to get green, and only a horse or two away from being there already. Good luck everyone!
Last Week ago: 9-1-2-10 11% (4/9 ITM) ($18 wagered, $9 returned net -9.00) $1.00 ROI on $2 Win Bets
Oaklawn 2020: 72-14-12-7 19.4% (33/72 ITM) ($144 wagered, $94.20 returned) net -$49.80) $1.30 ROI on $2 Win Bets
Enjoy the races and give me a follow-on Twitter u/BDHorseplayer- and follow some great handicappers over at http://thedailygallop.net/
Race 1
4 CANDY CARLOS- This card opens with a short horse as my top pick. Comes back to claiming ranks after in the money finishes in two low level allowance races. Third start from the layoff, after 2 respectable finishes, should be able to get the job done today. Most consistent horse in this field by far.
1 SECRET TOUCH- Gelding did not like the first trip in Arkansas but has steadily improved in the mornings until last week. I would expect this Eurton entry to be sharper than we saw in February, as I question the horses conditioning in that start. Adds blinkers today, which is a very profitable move for this barn.
5 ATTENTIVE- 4-year-old colt has some Remington Park back class, to the point I am very curious. Gets some relief from that last outing and will benefit from it. Might need this start to be ready to fire a win, but worth watching and adding to the stable if this horse improves from that March 1 effort.
Race 2
Do we have to bet this race? If not, then I respectfully skip this race. If we cannot then, I stay very narrow and hope for the best. The 2 ML favorites are not worth the price they are at, and do not have 9/5 chance of winning in my opinion.
3 DRAMATIC EXPERIENCE- 3rd career start and adds blinkers today for the Martin barn. De La Cruz is aboard who has not been riding well, but a logical improvement for this horse from the last start could put her in the mix.
8 MILLIE’S AN ANGEL- Also on the 3rd career start and looked to understand things better in the 2nd outing. Stays in the same class level, but at a 9/5 ML I just cannot buy in here. Not for Al Cates with Kelsi Harr aboard. No offense to either, but both have had tough meets, and this filly does not scream bet me. Does get a weight allowance here, so could benefit.
Race 3
3 FIFTHATNARRAGANSET- What a name, and I hope Vic has to say it a lot today. Comes down in class ever so slightly but fits on pace figures for this race I believe. Ingrid Mason is having a respectable meet and Thompson is riding at a clip higher than in 2019. Could be a good combination here. After the efforts this winter, class spot here makes a lot of sense- 3rd from the layoff, get the horse into the winner’s circle and some confidence.
8 PUNISH- This Ron Moqueet filly looks to be a solid 4-year-old despite the win loss record. This spot makes a lot of sense, and if she can get out of the gate nice and quick should figure to be involved today. Cannon with a good ride could win, although I would prefer to see a higher percentage jock here. Could end up being a bit too short for a win bet.
7 MANDY- Horse has been all over looking for wins, in mixed company spots, but Peter Miller gets horses to respond, and looking at the running lines here, with some good workouts, I wonder what happened last out to finish 30 lengths back. Was that a paid workout to see how the horse was feeling? Doesn’t make that much sense to me to finish so poorly and then come back 6 days later.
5 TRUE CASTLE- Huge drop-in class, and it concerns me ever so slightly. Tried good allowance company this year and then a great morning workout. Carries 5 extra lbs, which is also a negative here. At the 2-1 ML I cannot recommend, and if this horse beats me, I am ok with it.
Race 4
11 EMPTY NESTR- Tries to break maiden in 6th start and could look good here today. Nice step forward last outing despite tiring. With no posted workouts since Feb 19th, conditioning could have been an issue. I expect similar effort from last out, if not slightly better and could bring us 3-1 or so.
1 GUMWRAPPER- Liked this horse two weeks ago and returns here. Faltered last out after a fast-early pace and couldn’t finish strong. Slight weight allowance here, big class relief, if Talamo can control or get an easy lead, maybe horse can finish at a decent price.
13 MAYAN GHOST- As an AE may not run, but looking through the lines here, if the track is fast, this horse could be interesting. Should be right behind the leaders and if they manage to outrun themselves and fall apart as we have seen, could be a benefactor at a good price.
Race 5
8 DOC CURLIN- Ships in from Turf Paradise and clearly is in form. No works reported, but there haven’t been any since October when the running lines came back. Diodoro- we know how he operates, and this horse will be ready. Huge price on this horse for this level, connections expect wins.
7 POCKET PERSONALITY- Interesting gelding here coming from the layoff, and I am not quite sure how I feel about him. Fits on speed figures alone if that is what you want to go by, but I am a little afraid that they find traffic trouble or start to make a run and tire at a short price after minimal workouts.
11 VIRGA- A lot of history for this horse, even in December of 19, running well at Woodbine. Has not matched those efforts since coming to Oaklawn, and John Cox winning 1/15 does not help build confidence either. At a 15-1 ML though, I am willing to make a 3rd choice in this field, on the off chance, the horse gets out front, gets bold and Rocco Jr, doesn’t look back.
Race 6
3 BLINKERS- Appropriately named horse faced winners for the first time at Churchill last fall and finished a good 3rd to a pretty good field that produced 5 out of 7 winners in the money next out. John Ortiz has been decent this meet, but not fire from the layoff which should lead to some value for us here. Workouts have been regular minus a week or two there. Should be out front and clear of any traffic trouble for Hill to navigate.
9 MOORAC- This filly has been against the pace in last 2 starts facing soft times which does not help a horse from off the pace. BLINKERS AND CHERISHED will keep the pace honest here and should give Martin Garcia something to run at today. Probably 2nd from the layoff for this horse, but at 15-1, why not. I should note I think the drop-in class is interesting, and either the connections are hoping to lose her, or they need a payday. Let’s hope it’s the latter and we can get paid!
2 CHERISHED- Asmussen filly here with a big price tag on her has yet to really produce what connections would like I’m guessing. Looked good in allowance company at Houston and should be running along side BLINKERS early on. If these two can withstand a pace duel and tire each other out, should be there at the finish.
Race 7
This race feels like it could be wide open for the company here, keep that in mind as tote action will tell a huge story for this large field of maidens.
10 HUNGRY N SCRAPPY- Nice effort over a muddy surface in debut at the next level up from here. Horse doesn’t have a great mud pedigree so no worries on my end for that today. Should be a fast track, which could suit her well. Brad Cox adds blinkers for this 2nd outing and if can run a touch better than debut, could be breaking maiden today.
1 LADY MCKENZIE- Perhaps this filly figured out how to run over the winter, with a good showing earlier this month for William Fires. Her best speed figure in that performance, but clearly, she was comfortable doing it, as she was near her best from 2019. Fires is not hitting well this meet with only 1 win, so I am hesitant to take this filly on the rail for an ice-cold trainer. If the odds float up perhaps its something to look at.
6 BIG LUCK- So every card there is a price horse I like that I do not make my top big. Here is the one for this week. Unraced as a 2-year-old, has been steadily improving in both of her starts so far. It is not out of the question that this filly can take another advancement to win. Both starts thus far have been slow early, which today should figure to be quicker. If this race is indeed quicker, she could come running late at a price. I will probably include underneath in exotics.
Race 8
5 SUNNY DALE- Hollendorfer entry looked good in the fall/winter and won 2 races at Oaklawn, both good company outings. Martin Garcia has been hitting a great clip to start and no reason to think this filly won’t be game today. It’s possible she gets loose and WHOLEHEARTED runs out of ground trying to catch. If the price is right, could be worth a shot, especially if you look at the workout from 4 days ago that was a great little breeze over a muddy surface.
9 WHOLEHEARTED- This horse will be short price, but considering how she ran in February, in what has proven to be a tough field, that has produced 4 out of 5 next out in the money finishes with 2 winners, tells a good story. Diodoro entry with Cohen has been a good combination, and if she takes a similar effort as last out, could win by lengths.
8 A.P. PRINCESS- Something changed with this filly in February as ran career best speed figures by a huge margin. Not sure what Cipriano Contreras found here or were the figures from TURFWAY park inflated that much? She has won on dirt before so will be curious to watch this one today. I don’t plan on betting it, just because there are more questions than answers surrounding her, but worth a quick paragraph to spur discussions.
Race 9
A lot of good priced first-time starters here to weed through, and I am going to try and find one that is worth a shot for the price. I expect the 2 DIGITAL STAR to be very short, so let’s have some fun in this finale!
11 BUBBA CABALLO- I just like this name and can’t wait for the call from Vic. Twirling Candy sires about 17% debut winners and was well placed in stakes company. Workouts are not crazy fast, but no surprise for Moquett there. Joe Talamo aboard knows how to ride a debut horse, so worth a shot at this price. Do yourself a favor, watch the paddock and pre-race video, see how this gelding is acting, kidney sweat, head throws take note, and let the tote dictate your risk here.
5 TAPSOLUTION-Hey look a City Zip foal making a debut. Workouts are nice for an Asmussen horse, and City Zip puts out debut winners at 14%. 9-2 ML I wish was a little higher, but with Baze aboard, maybe it sticks around that point. Again, DIGITAL STAR should take huge money leaving some value for us on these debut types today.
1 HANEY BOYS- Is part of the entry with SOUTHSIDE SWIG. I will talk about both briefly since they are coupled. First SOUTHSIDE SWIG needs to take a huge step forward from that debut effort to win today I think, and with a low percentage trainer, I would need a lot more than 5-1 if this was not coupled. HANEY BOYS is a product from a low percentage trainer as well but looked decent in previous 2 outings. Depending how these first timers run, should be the leader at the ½. I think conditioning was an issue for this colt in the race earlier this month and may need another to have stamina ready to go the full 6 Furlongs.

I am going to like a lot of horses that will get good odds in today's races. You can use your own judgement whether you will want to take a risk or not, but that is really my best game. I struggle the most when I try to put too many favorites in the mix or when the races results in a lot of favorites doing what they are supposed to do. While I am use to waiting until my horses runs the way I expect them to, I can also understand others who might get impatient. The rewards always outweighs the frustration but it took me years to figure that part out. And it will anyone else also that plays the races the way I do. But value is what will eventually determine whether you win or lose over the long run, another fact that I spent years before I realized it.
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1st Race:
7)Contendress(9-2) Has made two starts, first race tried to contest the early pace and faded. 2nd race, laid off the pace and tried to make up late ground but finished fairly even. Now adds blinkers and looks fast enough to outbreak the favorites if the blinkers helps. The unknown is the other first time starters who shows speed in their works. Her sire, Competitive Edge, a son of Ky Derby winner Super Saver, broke his maiden in his first start, in wire to wire fashion finishing clear by 10+ lengths at Saratoga in 109 4/5.
4)Mysteriously(8-1) First time starter that has some good works for debut. Both sire, Tiznow and broodmare sire, Bernardini, were better in middle distance races, her 2nd dam, Burmilla, a daughter of Storm Cat, won her first two starts, both at 6 furlongs and both in 110 flat at two different tracks. With her, the break will be the key.
3)Josephine Baker(9-5) has made one start and set an uncontested pace but faded when challenged. However, her trainer is leading the trainer standing comfortably this year and will have to include. Also will run with lasix for the first time in her 2nd start and both her works since were more likely maintenance breezes to keep her fit.
1)Chez Paree(3-1) Has made one start and contested the pace throughout but could not get by the wire to wire winner while clear of the rest. Two works since that effort, including her last which suggests she should take a step forward. Broodmare sire, Defrere, was always overshadowed by his full brother, Dehere, a champion 2 YO Colt and sire of Take Charge Lady, among others, but both were known for siring foals that had high speed. Definitely not out of it, but will have more front running speed to contend with.
Bets: $5 Ex Box 4-7($10), $1 Tri Box 3-4-7($6), .10 Super Box 1-3-4-7(2.40), $1 Super Key 7 with 1-3-4 with 1-3-4 with 1-3-4($6). Total Risk $24.40.
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2nd Race:
6)Lyman(20-1) has made one start and trailed the field. However, he tossed his head at the start, was leaned on in the early stages by the runaway winner and simply gave others to much of a head start, especially in a race that was that quick. Now two more works since, one easy and the other that shows he has some fronting speed. A better break and a cleaner trip should put him over the top.
1)High Heater(6-1) First time starter. Trainer is 10% lifetime winning trainer and normally prepares his trainees with a series of slow works. To me, that six furlong work just before his first effort should give him plenty of wind. High Heater has shown flashes of speed in a couple of his works and his bloodlines suggests he should be high speed. His sire, Creative Cause, broke his maiden in his debut at the old Hollywood Park in 56 4/5 seconds for five furlongs and took the Best Pal S in his 2nd start in a 115 3/5 for 6 1/2 furlongs.
5)Top Justice(12-1) Another first time starter. He has some good works for his debut, including a 6 furlong work like my second choice that should help. While his trainer has a 8% lifetime winning percentage in his ninth year as a trainer, he trains mostly cheap stock and spots them aggressively, and has banked more than $7M without a big name runner. Top Justice sire, Danza won a maiden race in his first start, the Arkansas Derby in his 4th career start and finished 3rd to California Chrome in the 2014 Ky Derby, his career finale.
9)Fast Dreamer(9-2)Another first time starter. He also has some good works and bloodlines. However, trainer stop on him for almost a month before putting in his two best work for his first start. But the stoppage as he was approaching being ready always raises a red flag, because it usually indicates a minor ailment or sickness, so I will include underneath mostly.
Bets: $10 WP 6($20), $5 Ex Box 1-6($10), $1 Tri Box 1-5-6($6), .10 Super Box 1-5-6-9($2.40), .50 Super Key 6 with 1-5-9 with 1-5-9 with 1-5-9($3). Total Risk $41.40.
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3rd Race:
6)Detour(15-1) She has made for starts and has not placed in any. However, her trainer has been trying to get her back on grass since her first effort and looks like he might get that opportunity here. Her last two was switched to the AWT which is probably not the surface she wants. Her sire, Bellamy Road, smashed the stakes record in the 2005 Wood Memorial and came 1/5 second off Riva Ridge's track record set when he was 4 YO in 1973. Detour's female family has quite a bit of grass influence. Three works since her last effort for a trainer who has more success on grass than the AWT.
3)Just A Look(12-1) First time starter that has some good works and nice bloodlines for grass. Dam won 3 of 7 lifetime starts, all three on grass, including a listed stakes, with a late kick in Southern California. While her works has been a little inconsistent for my taste, her trainer will sneak a live one through, on occasion.
7)Meghan(5-1) She has made 4 lifetime starts, with one third her only board finish. However, she has had the same problem as my top choice, in that her trainer has tried to get her back on grass after her first effort, and in fact, this makes the four race in a row that they faced each other. While she has beaten my top choice all three times, it was by a nose, nose and 1/4 length, on surfaces she should have had a small advantage on.
5)Quality Too Spare(6-1) She has made three starts, with a third in her last her best effort. While I normally try to find a trainer who has a little more success than this one(no wins yet), she has enough speed to clear early and could hang on for a minor reward, depending on what how bad the others might fade.
Bets: $10 WP 6($20), Ex Box 3-6($10), $1 Tri Box 3-6-7($6), .10 Super Box 3-5-6-7($2.40), .50 Super Key 6 with 3-5-7 with 3-5-7 with 3-5-7($3). Total Risk $41.40.
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4th Race:
7)Blue Sky Kowboy(20-1) Has made 3 starts this year after an seven month break. Won his 2nd start, though it was restricted to state bred and was his first other than grass win and then ran poor against in a state bred stakes race, also moved to the AWT from grass. Though his recent stats shows otherwise, trainer has more than held his own with grass runners throughout his career. Just believe he is ready to give his best effort this year.
6)My Bariley(4-1) Has made 4 starts since his last winning effort, with two against graded stakes horse and another in a stakes which he has previously won. Also holds a recent class edge against these with a good work since his last effort. The one to beat.
8)Cuestion De Tempo(5-1) Has made 4 starts since an eight month break, with his last arguably the best effort since he returned. He has recorded two good works since his last and a mile fits him better than others in here.
3)Marzo(9-2) Has made 5 starts this year, winning his fourth start as an odds on favorite, most likely because others seen his yearling purchase price of $1M. However, that buyer(Coolmore) has long decided he did not have the ability they originally thought he had and decided to cut their losses and move on for $35K. That win was in a conditioned allowance, so I doubt he can do much better than a minor share, though his trainer has turned around the fortunes of several horses. This, so far, does not look like one of those times, though.
Bets: $10 WP 7($20), $5 Ex Box 6-7($10), $1 Tri Box 6-7-8($6), $3 Tri Key 6-7 with 6-7 with 8($6), .10 Super Box 3-6-7-8($2.40). Total Risk $44.40.
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5th Race:
8)Jazz Channel(5-1) Made one start on AWT and showed speed to top of stretch before tiring slightly. Now switches to grass which is the surface she should prefer most. One maintenance work since that effort should help make the forward move necessary to compete in this race. Her sire, English Channel, ran his best races on grass and most of his foals seems to like grass much better than AWTs or dirt. Her broodmare sire, Bernardini is better known for his abilities on dirt and his best foals has followed suit, though a few had shown they like the grass more.
9)Summer Day(12-1) First time starter. Has the workout pattern that has proven most beneficial to me. Both her sire, Sky Mesa, and her broodmare sire, Empire Maker, were G1 winners on dirt but never tried the grass. However, both their pedigrees suggests they could possibly have been even better on that surface, judging by the foals they have produce. Trainer normally only wins a few every year from limited runners, but Summer Day's 2nd dam, G3 SW Summer Mis, was his top runner and her daughter, Summer Again, spent her career in Illinois under his care, though neither was tried on grass.
5)Fall Moon(12-1) First time starter. Also has the workout pattern that seems to work best, working consistently every 7 days. Her sire, Lea, was a G1 SW on dirt and a G3 SW and G1 Placed on grass. However, he has Giant's Causeway and Galileo cross, so both surfaces have suited him. Broodmare sire, Quality Road, also was a G1 SW on dirt but his foals have performed well on both, especially around the mile distances.
2)Aunt Dorothy(9-2) Made one start and finished third. Pedigree fits nicely against these. One work since that effort which was a little too fast for my liking, but trainer tends to make right call more often than not, especially for grass. About a second slower and would have been my second choice and biggest perceived threat to my top choice.
Bets: $10 WP 8($20), $5 Ex Box 8-9($10), $1 Tri Box 5-8-9($6), .10 Super Box 2-5-8-9($2.40), $1 Super Key 8 With 2-5-9 with 2-5-9 with 2-5-9. Total Risk $44.40.
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6th Race:
1)Buttered Noodles(8-1) Has made one start. Tracked front runners, made a bid for the lead at the half then flatten out and faded on the AWT. Has two good works, including a 6 furlong work that is rarely seen in racing today, but used to be an angle as effective as first time lasix when a vet had to determine if bleeding occurred during a race or workout. Buttered Noodles's sire is City Zip, sire of known sprinters/milers on all surfaces. His dam, Flowerbomb, is 1/2 sister to Materiality and My Miss Sophia. She won twice in 14 starts, both at 1 1/16 mile, an AWT maiden race and N/W 2 allowance on grass.
Recklessness(15-1) Has made one start. Broke slowly and pick up horses while not making a dent into the runaway winner margin but just missed catching the runner up. Even good works before that effort proved futile. No works since but returns in 2 weeks, so another work would have been a little too much. A better start is expected. His sire, Midshipman, won the G1 Del Mar Futurity & G1 BC Juvenile Dirt, beating Pioneerof The Nile in the latter while landing 2 YO Champion Colt Award and is a 1/2 brother to the dam of Frosted. His dam made one start on grass and like her son, broke slowly and made up a little ground. 2nd dam won 5 of 18 starts, all at mid distances on dirt including a small stakes race.
9)Mister Not Funny(12-1) Made one start in the same race as my top choice. His works before that effort signaled a mid pack finish was most likely and that is where he finished after break slowly and waiting until the stretch to give his best effort, in a distance much to short and likely not best surface either. He goes with first time lasix in here and a surface and distance that he should perform better in, off two similar works as before his first effort. Still, improvement is expected and could surprise.
7)The Gray Blur(5-1) Made one start and exits out of the race as two of my other choices in here, which I normally will not even consider putting that many together from same effort. However, he ran an even race and basically was eliminated at the start with a less than ideal break for him. His sire, Fast Anna, hails from the same sire line(El Prado) and dam line(Kitten's First) as Kitten's Joy. The Gray Blur's dam line will also help him on this surface. Two works, including a solid one and the addition of blinkers could be all he needs to take this field from gate to wire. Beware!
Bets: $10 WP 1($20), $5 Ex Box 1-3($10), $1 Tri Box 1-3-9($6), $3 Tri Key 1 with 3-9 with 3-9($6), .10 Super Box 1-3-7-9($2.40), .50 Super Key 1 with 3-7-9 with 3-7-9 with 3-7-9($3). Total Risk $47.40.
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7th Race:
4)Rustic Rick(30-1) He returned from a 7 month break, took a few races to get in his best form and then sprung a major upset two starts back in his fourth effort since his return. Has three lifetime efforts on grass, all at one mile, but was asked to face much too tough in his last in his first start against winner. This will be his first time getting a firm turf with competition that simply matches his ability at best. His sire, Country Day, won several sprint grass stakes but also finished 2nd in the 2011 BC Turf Sprint. Dam, Ric Rac, won 4 of 19 lifetime starts, all 4 on grass at either a mile or 1 1/16 mile. No works since his first effort against winners, but returns in two weeks.
2)Jackfruit(20-1) Also broke his maiden 2 back on the AWT and then entered against winners in the same type class level in next. But he finally gets the surface he was really bred for, though he takes a couple steps up in class. His sire, Get Stormy, was a multiple G1 SW, earning more than $1.6M in his racing career. Dam, Ride 'Em Cowgirl, won her only stakes in an off the turf on the AWT, but also ran 2nd in a grass stakes race. This family traces much deeper than these two, but this is enough to let me come to my decision on whether to include or not.
12)Bird(30-1) Made one start and broke his maiden in same class as my 2nd choice. He has a pedigree that suggests he will perform pretty good on grass also, though not as close up in his bloodlines as my choice above him. Sire, Gio Ponti, was a multiple G1 SW on grass and two time grass champion in the U.S. Bird's 3rd dam, Oh What A Dance, produced Heavenly Prize, a G! champion herself and producer of Pure Prize and Good Reward, both foals of Storm Cat and better known for their grass runners.
3)True Loyalty(6-1) He will be working on his fourth start since a 10 month break, with improvement noted in his last. This is one of my angle horse that I will normally not bet against, but I like the others as good or better. While he has no works since his last and comes into this race off a three week break, that is borderline for me to consider him. Exercise helps horses first to get in racing shape and then to maintain that fitness.
This will be one race that I will be sure to box a dime superfecta and "waste" $2.40. It this type of payoff potential that I have always mentioned over and over. The potential for a dime super returning $7-8K makes it a bet I will not let pass me by, but others can.
Bets: $10 WP 4($20), $5 Ex Box 2-4($10), $1 Tri Box 2-4-12($6), .10 Super Box 2-3-4-12($2.40), $1 Super Key 4 with 2-3-12 with 2-3-12 with 2-3-12($6). Total Risk $44.40.
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8th Race:
2)Dazzling Truths(20-1) Made four starts this year with a third his best effort. Here is a horse that actually proves what wotks can do to your fitness and form. His workouts pattern has been spotty and ineffective. 2 works in 23 days to prepare for first start in almost 5 months. Then wheeled back in 9 days and 18 days, which is ok but on outer edge of moving a horse forward. Then a 53 day layoff with 2 works a month apart and he ran flat. So the only reason I will use him in here is most seems like they would rather sprint and he wheels back yet again in 11 days, which is enough time to recuperate but still have what conditioning he got from his last effort left. Edge in a wide open field.
4)Can't Hide From Me(7-2) Unbeaten in three starts but now changes barn and has one slow work since his last effort. Not sure he wants a mile distance but his connections picked a good spot to find out. However, while field is fairly weak, he is be facing his toughest test yet.
1)Sovereign Impact(20-1) Claimed out of his last start by connections who tends to get the best results from their trainees. He has won 2 sprints, one at 5 furlongs and one at 6 furlongs, both on Indiana Downs speed favoring track that often helps front runners look better than they actually are. Has had very little impact in races away from that track. One fairly decent work since the claim.
11) Dabo(5-1) Only one in field that has proven that this distance is within his scope, but both wins have came in races restricted to state breds. His maiden win at 6 furlongs came against open breds and his last to first effort saw him beat my top choice in the first start of his career. He has several good efforts while overmatched in Turfway Park 3 YO preps for the Ky Derby. Sharp right now as he wheels back in two weeks.
Bets: $5 Ex Box 2-4($10), $1 Tri Box 1-2-4($6), .10 Super Box 1-2-4-11($2.40). Total Risk $18.40.
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9th Race:
6)Magic Wand(3-1) Wanted no part of Enable in last, but not many does. She has some races that makes her a contender for the win. Only difference,is she has tried the boys in top races on several occasions over here and ran respectable in them. like her stablemate, she contested Europe's biggest 3 YO fillies races last year.
1)Fleeting(5-2) Making first U.S. start after running in top 3 YO fillies races in Europe. Nicely bred horse who is bred along the same lines as the favorite in here. Only trainer that could possibly give Brown fits with his own handling of his fillies stars, though he is better in Europe when he does not have to travel half way around the globe.
7) Sistercharlie(8-5) Most likely will be odds on and I will try to beat. Makes 2nd start this year but like usual, Brown had her fit for her first test. 2 more good works and looks like that race took nothing out of her. Won this race last year in a contest between 3 Brown's trainees. One to beat.
5)Remember Daisy(30-1) Gets the acid test now but has shown some ability in her career. Though not likely to beat the top three, I will try to beat the rest in here with this one. No works since last, but trainer has farm nearby and probably has used it to keep her fit.
Bets: .50 Super Box 1-5-6-7($12), $3 Super Key 6 with 1-5-7 with 1-5-7 with 1-5-7($18). Total Risk $30.
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10th Race:
7)Valid Point(5-1) Has not started since early June but has the best workout pattern since, and Brown is the one I first started noticing it with. Unbeaten in two starts and bred well enough to make it three, especially since the distance has been shorten to a mile on grass.
5)Ry's The Guy(15-1) Broken his maiden two back and then won his first level allowance race in his last and first effort on grass. As his bloodlines suggests, he put in his best performance to date when entered on the correct surface. Definitely not out of this and could surprise. Sire, Distorted Humor, performed in top level on dirt throughout his racing career, but as a sire is better known as an off track specialist or grass sire. Broodmare sire, Royal Academy, won the mile BC Turf Mile in his last start and when on to be a leading sire in several countries for several years. He is a 1/2 brother to Terlingua, the dam of Storm Cat.
1)Clint Maroon(20-1) After three straight win on grass, his last two had good possibilities why he did not win. His first of those two was a little further than his bloodlines suggests would be his best distance and in his most recent start, he stumbled at the start and then had to circle 6 wide to get into contention, giving his opponents a decided edge. Since that start, he has switched barns and has turned in three good works. His sire, Oasis Dream, was a sprint champion in Europe while his broodmare sire, El Prado is sire of both Medaglia D'Oro and Kitten's Joy. Another that is in with a good shot at an upset.
6)Fog Of War(3-1) Has made 2 starts this year with the second a significant improvement over his first start. However, he will need to take his class up another level or two to compete against these. His sire, War Front, is leading miler grass sire since the death of Scat Daddy. His dam, Say, a royally bred daughter of Galileo out of G1 SW Riskaverse has yet produced anyone close to either parent. Therefore, I will bet the three I like better and make this one beat me.
Bets: $5 Ex Box 5-7($10), $2 Ex Box 1-5-7($12), $3 Tri Box 1-5-7($18), .50 Super Box 1-5-6-7($12), $1 Super Key 7 with 1-5-6 with 1-5-6 with 1-5-6($6). Total Risk $58.
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11th Race:
8)Captivating Moon(20-1) Made one start this year, finishing third in the prep for this race. Ran against good 3 YOs last year while never quite getting over type. New year and a freshening while giving him more time to mature could definitely be the answer. Two nice works since and he should be ready for the next step forward.
1)Robert Bruce(7-2) Made two starts this year, the first simply an out to get him fit. The second start saw him run 2nd to his stablemate, though he had the post position that tends to struggle compared to his stablemate who got another super trip from a post that tends to get good trips on Belmont inner turf course.
3)Bricks And Mortar(8-5) Is the favorite and deserving so. However, he is due for a not so good trip that will test his ability to overcome adversity that has taken many good runners down a notch or two. He is winding down his career as his breeding rights was sold to Japan and he departs after his last race this year, supposedly the BC Turf. Best U.S turf horse in training until someone knocks him down a notch.
4)Catcho En Die(30-1) Has made three starts this year and clearly been off form. However, he ran 4th in this race last year but was moved up to third via a dq of original third place finisher. Now on his fourth start since returning, including his first against the top two choices in here, I look for him to stick around because this field is similar to last year's field, with two horses dwarfing the others and he comes in not having a hard fought win he was coming off of, like last year.
Bets: $10 WP 8($20), $5 Ex Box 1-8($10), $1 Tri Box 1-3-8($6), .10 Super Box 1-3-4-8($2.40), $1 Super Key 8 with 1-3-4 with 1-3-4 with 1-3-4($6). Total Risk $44.40.
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12th Race:
7)Comic Kitten(15-1) 4 starts this year with 2 seconds. But after a mini break of two months, she was entered in an allowance race that the winner slowed the pace down to a crawl and was able to hold her safe in a final time that was on the pedestrian side for grass especially. She needed two more efforts to recover, including drawing the rail on Saratoga turf course, where winners rarely make an impact from. Now she is working on her third try since that good first effort try and look for her to come alive. She has the same monstrous Sadler's Wells cross as Enable, though thru two different sons and grandsons.
2)Aunt Hattie(20-1) Has made 6 starts this year. Working on her fourth effort since her last winning effort with her last being her best effort, indicating she is regaining top form. One work since that effort should help her to retain her form. Her sire, Camelot, came the closest to sweeping the English TC since Nijinsky turned that hat trick in 1970. Her broodmare sire, Danehill, represent the same sire/dam family cross that has produced many top European G1 winners and champions.
10)Art Of Almost(5-1) 5 starts this year, breaking her maiden in her third start, then a conditioned allowance in her fourth start before finishing 3rd against a good G2 field of older mares, just missing second. 4 good works since that effort should have her in her best form.
3)Lightscameraaction(20-1) 3 starts this year, winning her most recent effort, but with some room for improvement. She showed some promise as a 2 YO and will most likely show more promise as she reaches peak conditioning. 2nd dam, Cross Traffic, was a multiple G1 SW and her best son, Cross Traffic, a son of Unbridled's Song, also won the G1 Whitney H and finished 2nd in the G1 Metropolitan Mile.
Bets: $10 WP 7($20), $5 Ex Box 2-7($10), $1 Tri Box 2-7-10($6), .10 Super Box 2-3-7-10($2.40), $1 Super Box 7 with 2-3-10 with 2-3-10 with 2-3-10($6). Total Risk $44.40.
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By my calculation, I have listed $483 worth of bets I will make at Arlington tomorrow. So my goal this week will be to cash tickets worth around $1500. Anything more will be like gravy on top, and anything less will make me try harder again next weekend.

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Needless to say, this weekend is jam packed with big races all over the country….. But it could have been a lot bigger.
With the blockbuster news that Santa Anita Park has been closed “indefinitely” due to an alarming 21st horse suffering a life ending injury during a training session four major races won’t be run this weekend.
Affectionately known as “the Big ‘Cap”, the Santa Anita Handicap, a major three year old Kentucky Derby prep race, the San Felipe Stakes, the Grade: 1 Frank E. Kilroe Mile and the San Carlos for sprinters were all slated to be run and will be rescheduled.
This statement was released last Tuesday at 10:15PM:
“The Stronach Group announced the closure of Santa Anita Park for live racing and training effective immediately while the one mile main track undergoes additional extensive testing.
All stakes races scheduled for this upcoming weekend, including the Grade I Santa Anita Handicap, the Grade II San Felipe and the Grade II San Carlos will be rescheduled.
“The safety, health and welfare of the horses and jockeys is our top priority,” said Tim Ritvo, Chief Operating Officer, The Stronach Group. “While we are confident further testing will confirm the soundness of the track, the decision to close is the right thing to do at this time”.
The additional testing of the track will be led by veteran Trackman Dennis Moore, expanding on the ground radar testing conducted earlier this week by the University of Kentucky's Dr. Mick Peterson. Measures will include utilizing an Orono Biomechanical Surface Tester, a device that mimics the impacts of a horse running at full gallop allowing engineers to see how the track holds up. These test results will be evaluated to ensure track consistency and uniformity for both training and racing.
Further, The Stronach Group will be conducting a comprehensive evaluation of all existing safety measures and current protocols.
This decision comes a little late. In all my 40 years of being involved in this sport, I can’t recall a time where 21 horses have lethally broken down in such a short, 10 week time span.
I’ve been to Santa Anita several times in the past year. I walked the upper stretch, the surface seems fine.
The whole situation is both tragic and baffling. The only thing I can come up with is the weather, as I’m not sure the Santa Anita surface was designed to stand up to it. Los Angeles and surrounding areas have been pounded with rain over the last several weeks and the temperatures are much lower than normal. Past that, I am very curious to see what these tests show.
With the cancellation of those races, the Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct and the Tampa Bay Derby at, you guessed it, Tampa Bay Downs, will be our highlighted races of the week.
Other races we will be examining include the Honey Bee Stakes at Oaklawn Park and the Busher at Aqueduct, both for three year old fillies.
Lastly, and although I’m not a big fan of the synthetic racing surface, we will be looking at the Jeff Ruby Steaks at Turfway Park for three year old males.
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Aqueduct Racetrack
Race: 10 (5:09 PM EST Post)
Gotham Stakes
Although there are several “play against” angles in regards to the very highly touted Instagrand, I can’t seem to pull the trigger in doing so. The $1.2 million son of Into Mischief will be making his first start in almost seven months. Will he be ready? How will he ship across the country? How will he handle going from 70 degrees in Southern California to Queens, New York where it’s expected to be in the low 40’s? How will he handle the surface change? And of course, how will he handle the mile distance when he’s never been over three quarters? I mentioned last week that Hidden Scroll was the most intriguing horse on the Road to the Kentucky Derby. If Hidden Scroll was #1, this colt is easily #2. The decision to come here was sheer brilliance by trainer Jerry Hollendorfer as he gets away from what is right now a dangerous surface and two dangerous horses in Game Winner and Improbable. It makes all the sense in the world that if you’re going to ask a horse to stretch out, why not do it at a one turn mile against what is clearly inferior competition and over a safer track? All that said, I still have no idea how good he is. He absolutely destroyed maidens in his debut and his rivals in the Grade: 2 Best Pal Stakes last summer while winning each race by 10 lengths. He’s been working well so he should be ready but remember the ultimate goal is the first Saturday in May, not the first Saturday in March. Past that, I’ll throw in my “eye test” angle as he was jaw dropping good last year and one more little tidbit. The talk around the Hollendorfer barn is they are putting this horse in the same league as the ill-fated Shared Belief. That, readers, is an enormous compliment…………......…….Based off his Grade: 1 win last year and his strong performance in winning the Jerome last time out, Mind Control is most likely the best three year old in New York. This handsome colt by Stay Thirsty has won three of his last four races and seems to be coming into this race in good shape. "Everything has gone according to plan. For the most part, he hasn't missed a beat. He's filled out, he's stronger, and his works have been well within himself. He couldn't be doing any better going into the Gotham," trainer Greg Sacco said………………………Haikai is a neck shy of being unbeaten in three starts including gamely winning the $150,000 Jimmy Winfield on this track last time out and scoring higher speed figures than Mind Control…must be considered in this spot……………………….Honorable Mentions: I really liked Not That Brady’s last three races, which consisted of two large margin wins vs. NYSB and super game second to Tax in the Withers Stakes. Chestnut gelding by Big Brown set the pace in the Withers, was passed by Tax, but lowered his head, dug in and fought back valiantly in the process. The cutback in distance should only help him in this spot and he could easily better this rating…………………..Much Better is a speedy, $600,000 son of Pioneerof the Nile from the Bob Baffert barn who ran huge vs. Gunmetal Gray in the Sham Stakes in January and whistled home (6 ½ furlong in 1:15.3) three in front vs. high level optionals last time out….should come out running in this spot and could be a menace………………..What do you do with Knicks Go? On one hand he is a Grade: 1 winner and was second in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile last fall, but on the other hand, albeit with excuses, he showed little in last two races. (My Play: .50 trifecta box using the top 5. Cost $30.00)
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Race: 11
Busher Stakes (5:40 PM EST Post)
Like Instagrand in the Gotham, Please Flatter Me is hard to go against in this spot. Filly by Munnings, who the owners paid $12,000 for but she has already made more than 12 times that amount, has won all three career starts “on the engine” and by a combined 18 ¼ lengths including two Stakes races. I also the liked the fact that, after ripping through the first half mile of her last, she came home the last furlong in a solid :12.3. This speedster will be stretching out in distance, stepping up in class and drew towards the outside. However, drawing the outside becomes somewhat neutralize in a one turn, mile race and she shows a pair of monster works recently….should make every pole a winning one here………………….Play “Pin the Tail on the Donkey” with the rest of this field as they are difficult to separate. ….I’ll take a shot with the well bred Always Shopping to fill out the exacta. This good looking filly, by Awesome again out of the Grade: 1 Stakes placed Stopshoppingmaria, has methodically improved through each of her four career starts, highlighted by winning the Busanda Stakes on this oval last time out………………….Espresso Shot is 5-2-1-1 in her career and running very well in her last two on this track, including beating a restricted Stakes field in her last. Although it took her a very pedestrian :26.3 seconds to get the final quarter mile in that race, you must note that race was in the mud. If you go back to her previous race, note how she was charging hard, late to grab second in a fairly quickly run six furlong race. A fast track and a mile distance looks to be exactly what the Doctor ordered for her here……………………….Honorable Mentions: Ujjayi sports a 4-2-2-0 record, has speed, draws the rail and wired a Stakes field on this oval last time out. All that said, she’s faced Please Flatter Me twice recently and has been beaten by a combined (almost) 10 lengths………………………I hate to put Oxy Lady this far down, I really do as this might come back to bite me. This filly Oxbow ran the best race of her life in her one and only try on this surface and had legitimate excuses in her two races since (overmatched in the Grade: 1 Starlet at Los Al, yet she was only beaten by less than three lengths and probably needed her wide tripped, Rachel Alexandra Stakes effort in her last). Of course, having Castellano in the irons won’t hurt her chances either. Bottom line here is she could easily outrun this rating………………..If you want to think outside the box a little, take a look at the cleverly named Filly Joel, who has shown improved speed for trainer “Rudy Rod” in her last three races and cuts back in distance for this race. (My Play: .50 Trifecta box using the top 5. Cost: $30.00)
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Tampa Bay Downs
Race: 11 (5:25 PM EST Post)
Tampa Bay Derby
Win Win Win ran one of the better races by a three year old on the Road to the Kentucky Derby when he pulverized the field in the Pasco Stakes last time out. The colt by Hat Trick shattered the track record for seven furlongs when he stopped the clock in 1:20.4, which is almost unheard of for a surface that is so deep and sometimes quirky. He’s been training lights out since (49 days), signaling to me another big effort is upcoming. Although he’ll be trying a route of ground and two turns for the first time, I’m not real worried about it as a) he showed me no signs he was “done” late in the Pasco Stakes. In fact, he was moving very well in the last three furlongs, which he got in a very good :36.2, including the last furlong in :12.1 and b) note, both his grandsires were Kentucky Derby and Preakness winners, so he certainly has the bloodlines for more distance……………………The 123 days off that Dream Maker received evidently did him a world of good. Colt by super sire Tapit decimated a field of optional NW1X in his 2019 debut at the Fair Grounds while winning by 8 ½ lengths under very little pressure from his rider. Bottom line here is he looks to be the biggest threat to my top pick in this spot…………………………………I like Zenden in this spot too, but what’s up with his three career races being spaced so far apart? Makes me wonder. Anyway, this chestnut colt by Fed Biz won his first two career starts, with one being a minor Stakes race, before chasing (second) the talented Call Paul in his last in the Grade: 3 Swale Stakes at GP. He ran well that day being it was his first start in almost two months and Call Paul is a runner. That race should set him up very well in this spot and his past races and running style suggest he won’t have a problem with the route distance either………………………Honorable Mentions: Well Defined pulled off a 7-1, coast to coast upset in the Sam F Davis last time out, so he certainly merits attention. That said, a few things trouble me about him. One, he was all alone on an uncontested lead in the Sam Davis and I doubt that happens again in this spot. Two, he has a hard time putting wins back to back. Three, his recent works since have been….meh….ok, I guess………………......Outshine is a $625,000 son of Malibu Moon who closed late to win two of his first three starts, including his 2019 debut on Feb 10. He recorded a monster work last week at Palm Beach Downs and he should appreciate the stretch out in distance here………………………….Just a few other side notes about this race: Although he finished off the board, Sir Winston didn’t run all that bad in his return to the dirt surface for the first time since June in the Withers Stakes at Aqueduct in his last…….........Tacitus is clearly one of the best bred horses in training today being by Tapit out of five time Grade: 1 winner Close Hatches and he goes first time Lasix here……….Lastly, if you are looking for a long-shot, take a look at Dunph, who has run very well in three of his five career starts and had legitimate excuses in the other two. (My play: $50 to win on Win Win Win, .50 trifecta box using the top 5. Cost: $80.00).
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Oaklawn Park
Race: 9 (5:09 PM EST Post)
Honey Bee Stakes
Motion Emotion was visually impressive running high level NW1X optionals off their feet while winning by almost 7 in her last and looking like the “real deal.” She improved her record to 2 for 2 on this oval in the process. Drawing towards the inside should only help her chances, should make every pole a winning one here even with the big step up in class………………….Power Gal is a stretch runner by powerhouse sire Empire Maker who has yet to run a bad race though four career starts, highlighted by winning the Martha Washington in her debut on this oval last time out. With rain in the forecast for Oaklawn, there are no worries about her as she can handle a wet track…………………..After poking her head in front in the drive, Marathon Queen yielded and finished just a half length behind Power Gal in the Martha Washington. That was an impressive feat being that was just filly by Super Saver’s second career start. Logical contender with normal improvement from career start #2 to career start #3………………………Honorable Mentions: After finishing a fast closing third in her debut, Raintree Scarlet has rattled off three impressive wins in her last three races, including taking down a Stakes race in her last. Filly by Get Stormy steps up and stretches out but could be a menace………………………Sunset Wish has also rattled of three straight wins before finishing a close up fourth in the Martha Washington after a troubled trip (rank early, took a minor bump and four wide on the turn). Filly by Malibu Moon could outrun this rating, especially with a cleaner trip…….Couple of long-shots to consider: Bizwhacks is consistent and ran an enormous race in the mud last time out, consider her if it rains.. and, based off her past performances, Chocolate Kisses might quietly be sitting on big race here. (My Play: $50 win on Motion Emotion and .50 trifecta box using the top 5. Cost $80.00)
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Turfway Park
Race: 11 (6:37 PM EST Post)
Jeff Ruby Steaks
Somelikeithotbrown just missed in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf last year and was a conclusive winner in 2019 debut (on the synthetics) on Feb 15. This son of the very gentle Big Brown should only be tighter for this his second start of the layoff…..logical choice here…….................….Skywire won his racing debut on the synthetics nicely, then closed very well, late to beat optional NW1X by 6 at Gulfstream Park in his last. Good looking colt by Afleet Alex takes the next logical step in this spot……………………........Five Star General probably needed his last in the Sam F. Davis, his 2019 debut. Colt by Distorted Humor won his last two races in 2018 and his work pattern suggests he will come out running in this spot……………..Honorable Mentions: Dabo returns to his best surface (synthetics) in this spot and executed a brazen, five wide run on the turn in his 2019 debut while finishing third to Somelikeithotbrown in his last. Threat in this spot as he should be “tighter for this” and get a little better trip………………..Dynamic Racer has shown improved early speed in 2019. Although he was beaten fair and square by the top choice last time out, he draws the rail, likes the synthetics and you get the third start off the layoff angle as well. Merits consideration even though his trainer is 6 for 185 (3%) in synthetics surface races…………..If you are hunting a long-shot, take a look at Curlin Grey, who is the complete opposite of Dynamic Racer as this colt has shown an improved late run in both 2019 races at Gulfstream but tries the synthetics for the first time. (My Play: $50 win on Somelikeithotbrown and .50 trifecta box using the top 5. Cost $80.00)
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By: Gerard Apadula
Director of Equine Operations and Development
Knights of the Round Stable Thoroughbred Racing Team
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[[email protected]](mailto:[email protected])
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2019- Record: 15-42 = 36% (My Plays: -$815.76)
2018- Record: 107-261= 41%
2017- Record: 92-235 = 39%
2016- Record: 91-229 = 40%
2015- Record: 67-180 = 37%
2014- Record: 29-73 = 40%
2013- Record: 20-59= 34%
2012 -Record: 24-73= 33%
2011 –Record: N/A
2010- Record: 24-74= 33%
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Little Bets N’ Pieces
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**** 62-1 shot Southwest Stakes winner Super Steed is off the Kentucky Derby trail because of bone bruising in a front leg, trainer Larry Jones said last Sunday morning.
Albeit the injury isn't career threatening, Jones said Super Steed will require 60-90 days of rest, eliminating any chance of running in the Kentucky Derby
"He's walking, but not perfect by any means," Jones said. "We just found out yesterday afternoon that's he got the issue because I galloped him yesterday and he came back and everything was good. He came out of that last race with a little more of an issue than I realized," Jones added.
"We did some X-rays, and it just looks like if we don't stop now, we're going to run into trouble. Thank God there's no surgery, no nothing needed. Just needs rest."
Jones said Super Steed will be sent to Kentucky to recover.
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**** In another development last Sunday, trainer Jinks Fires said Smarty Jones winner Gray Attempt was no longer under consideration for the Rebel Stakes because of an undisclosed minor setback. Fires said the hope is to make the Arkansas Derby.
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**** Trainer D. Wayne Lukas said last Friday that Bravazo was scheduled to undergo surgery at Rood & Riddle Equine Hospital in Lexington, Ky., to address a knee issue.
Bravazo was pointing for the $12 million Dubai World Cup on March 30 in Dubai but the problem was detected after training Thursday morning, Lukas said.
"He galloped beautifully yesterday," Lukas said. "We thought he was tender coming off the wash rack, and we just got to the bottom of it. He's already gone (to Kentucky) … he had some gravel and garbage that they wanted to clean up."
Lukas said he expects Bravazo to return to his barn by June 1.
Bred and owned by Calumet Farm, Bravazo has a 3-4-3 record from 17 starts and earnings of $2,003,528.
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**** Four time champion Beholder was confirmed in foal to sire War Front, Spendthrift Farm confirmed Friday.
The pregnancy is the third for Beholder, who produced an Uncle Mo colt in 2018, and a Curlin filly on Jan. 19.
Beholder, who won Eclipse Award titles as champion 2-year-old filly, 3-year-old filly, and two as champion older female, earned over $6 million on the racetrack.
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**** Global Campaign, the half brother to the mega talented Bolt d’Oro by Curlin, “grabbed a quarter” (stepped on one of his front feet with a back foot) during his fifth place finish in last Saturday's Fountain of Youth Stakes.
“He grabbed a quarter, on the meaty part above the coronet band and ripped it back, and it's going to take some time to heal up,” said trainer Stanley Hough. “(Jockey) Luis (Saez) said he wasn't even sure where it happened. Best-case scenario he's going to be out of training a couple of weeks, so he'll have to miss the rest of these type of races. But I look at it as maybe a blessing in disguise because now he'll get some time off, and by summer time I think he'll really show himself and be the guy.”
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This is clearly one of the biggest weekends of the year in the sport of Horse Racing. Up until the last few days, I had no less than 17 races circled as races which loom large and should be looked at. Obviously, that’s too many, so I knocked it down to eight.
I’m not sure which should be our highlighted race of the week as it could be any one of four. The Wood Memorial at Aqueduct in New York, the Bluegrass Stakes in Kentucky, the Santa Anita Derby, (all final and major Kentucky Derby prep races) and the Santa Anita Handicap in California, would all qualify, along with several other races this weekend, so I’ll let you decide.
Along with those races each track will also carry a big under card as each has at least one Grade: 1 race as well.
Moreover, starting with Coliseum in January and running right through to 72-1 maiden Bodeexpress finishing second in the Florida Derby last week, I will be skipping a week or two or maybe the next 106 of “my plays”. There has just been way too many horses who don’t figure into my style of handicapping running enormous, out of the blue races. Winning at a 30% clip might be ok for some people, but not for me.
When times like these come about, and it has happened countless times through my almost 40 years, I found it best to back off, regroup and start again when I see my style of handicapping come back.
Since we have so much to go over, I won’t bore you any longer, or with listing every race, let’s just get to work. Lastly, remember with such a wild weekend on tap, the races are broken out by tracks not post times.
Saturday, April 6, 2019
Keeneland Racecourse
Race: 8 (5:10 PM EST Post)
Madison Stakes
After losing the first race of her career by a half of a length, Late Night Pow Wow has rattled off an astounding 11 straight wins, including the Grade: 3 Barbara Fritchie in her last. This obscurely bred filly ran seven furlongs in a hot 1:21.4 that day. Don’t worry this will be her first start since (49 days), as she’s been training lights out lately, signaling another big effort is upcoming…………….2018 Champion Female Sprinter Shamrock Rose had every excuse imaginable in the Azeri Stakes on March 16. Filly by First Dude was making her first start of the year, was at a distance that was not her best, and her rider (David Cohen) used the wrong race tactics as she was facing not one, but two, upper echelon older females in training in Elate and Midnight Bisou. With the cut back to her best distance and a rider upgrade (Cohen to Irad Ortiz), I expect a much better performance here………………Grade: 1 winner Spiced Perfection also looms large in this spot as she was charging hard, late and just missed (head) behind Late Night Pow Wow in the Barbara Fritchie. Filly by sneaky good sire Smiling Tiger won three of her last four to end 2018 with a legitimate excuse (turf) in the one loss mixed in there…………………………Honorable Mentions: It looks as though the winter vacation Amy’s Challenge took did her a world of good as she has come back running in 2019. This speedy filly, who is 6 for 10 in her career, annihilated her foes in her first two starts this year and shows a ridiculously fast 4F (:45.3) two weeks ago. Albeit, she will be taking a huge step up in class and stretching out in distance, she figures to come out running again in this spot and be the one to catch late………..I hate to put America’s Tale this far down as this filly might be laying in the weeds, ready to ambush this field. If you draw a line through yet another failed turf race three back, you’ll see she’s won four straight including the Grade: 2 Inside Information at Gulfstream Park in her last. “Speed” rider Paco Lopez gets the leg up on this “speed” filly.
Race: 9 (5:45 PM EST Post)
Ashland Stakes
2018 Two Year Old Filly Champion Jaywalk was one of the bigger disappointments in her 2019 debut. This daughter of Cross Traffic stalked the early pace in the Davona Dale but had very little left in the tank down the lane and checked in fourth, beaten by almost six lengths. I’ll give this immensely talent horse a “mulligan” for that and come right back with her here…………….Restless Rider was one of the better two year old fillies last year. This well bred gray sports a 6-3-3-0 career record, including a Grade: 1 win and very good second in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Filly last November. She has been training very well for her first start since, but I’m pretty sure, with much bigger goals down the road, she won’t be 100% for this test…………Chocolate Kisses was visually impressive coming from last, catapulting past horses with a 5 wide, sweeping move on the turn before roaring down the lane to the Honeybee Stakes at 7.50-1. I’m sure the screaming fast early pace in that race helped quite a bit but still….a repeat performance of that race here should put her among the vanguard at the wire……………Honorable Mentions: Feedback is another who might be ready to ambush this field. I really liked the way this filly by Violence won her first start (by 8 lengths, getting the last sixteenth in :06.3) and her follow up race, the Forward Gal Stakes, as she was pressured every step of the way but was dead game in winning it. Unbeaten speedster figures prominent throughout……………Bell’s the One is unbeaten in four starts while facing much lesser opponents. Good looking filly is 1 for 1 on this oval and shows a strong work last week over it as well…..outside shot……….Lady Kate is a $485,000 daughter of Bernardini who ran very well in both of her career starts. I love the bullet work on this surface last week too……..If you are shopping for a long-shot, take a gander at Bizwhacks, who although it took her eight starts to break her maiden, she ran a sneaky good third behind Chocolate Kisses in her last. Filly by Fed Biz has hit the board in eight of nine starts.
Race: 10 (6:23PM EST Post)
Bluegrass Stakes
While looking at this race, I found something very interesting. Vekoma, based off his two wins last year and the first time Lasix using, excellent third to Code of Honor in his 2019 debut (March 2, Fountain of Youth Stakes), clearly looks like the best horse in this race and his 9/5 morning line odds reflect that. Before moving forward, take note he ran 8 ½ furlongs in about 1:44.1 over that “conveyor belt” they call Gulfstream Park. Now move over to track record holder for seven furlongs at Tampa Bay Downs Win Win Win. Note how, just seven days later over a track much deeper and much more tiring than GP, this colt was charging hard, late to get third in the Tampa Bay Derby at Tampa Bay Downs at the same 8 ½ furlong distance. Yes, he was the beaten favorite but note how his final time was approximately 1:42.1 or 2 full seconds faster that Vekoma’s. That amounts to about a 10 length differential. (Although logical has nothing to do with the three year old division thus far) Logically, if he runs 10 lengths better than Vekoma under more difficult circumstances, wouldn’t it make sense to play Win Win Win on top here? Bottom line, based off that fact alone, I’ll take Win Win Win to win and Vekoma to come second………………….Signalman had a banner year last year. However, he disappointed in his 2019 debut, checking in seventh in the Fountain of Youth Stakes. Three straight, strong 5F works since should have him “tighter” for this………………Honorable Mentions: If Somelikeithotbrown can pull the same trick as Anothertwistafate (run just as well on the dirt as the synthetics) he’ll be tough here. This son of Big Brown looked super in winning both 2019 starts at Turfway Park and has hit the board in six of seven career starts……If you are hunting a longshot, take a peek at Sir Winston, who is on the improve, highlighted by making up nine lengths in the last 4 ½ furlongs of the Tampa Bay Derby and finished right behind Win Win Win in the process.
​
Aqueduct Racetrack
Race: 9 (5:22 PM EST Post)
Carter Handicap
It’s no secret I like World of Trouble quite a bit. This handsome, super fast son of Kantharos has won 6 of 10 in his career including a “just missed” second in none other than the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint last fall. That race is sandwiched around four, mostly large margined wins and his last four speed figures overall (103, a colossal 118, 109 and 107) jump off the page. Although he draws the extreme outside post I expect him to make every pole a winning one…………………..Vino Rosso was at one time a strong Kentucky Derby prospect until Justify came along and the rest, as they say, is (literally) history. This $410,000 son of Curlin took nearly seven months off but made a successful return to the races when stalking the early pace, using a five wide move on the turn and taking down the Stymie Handicap on March 9. Lastly, note he is 3 for 3 at the Big A and just 1 for 7 everywhere else. Can you say “Horse for the Course” angle?.......................Identity Politics has never been off the board in six career starts including circling the entire field in the prestigious Malibu Stakes and finishing second to one of the top older horses in training today (McKinzie). This $350,000 son of Into Mischief, with his 1-4-1 record, does seem to have a touch of “second-itis” but is an exotics threat nonetheless……………Honorable Mentions: Albeit vs. lesser competition, Honor Up has rattled off three straight wins (four of his last five), but his speed figures and having the guts of a cat burglar both suggest he could be competitive in this spot. The 6-4-2-0 career record on this oval is also an attention getter…………….Should probable long shot Sir Ballentine duplicate his last performance, where he beat mid-level optionals at this distance and on this oval while getting 7F in 1:22 flat, he could be a menace.
​
Race: 10 (6:00PM EST Post)
Wood Memorial
You can make an argument that Tacitus might be the best bred horse in training today. This gray colt, who has big, beautiful stride, is by super sire Tapit out of 5 time Grade: 1 winner Close Hatches, appears to be getting good at just the right time. Although a fast early pace help him considerably, he rallied from some 10-11 lengths behind at first call of the Tampa Bay Derby but came “over the top” to win going away. The Bill Mott trainee is visually begging for more distance and he’ll get just that in this spot, all he needs is a pace to run into….gets the call in a very difficult race to figure………………..Haikal is a neck shy of being 4 for 4 in his career. He is another who was aided by a wickedly fast pace when coming from way out to win the Gotham last time out. This son of Daaher’s, will be trying two turns for the first time, has speed figures that are climbing steadily (79, 85, 84 and 95) signaling improvement as the distances get longer. That stat is backed up by regular rider Rajiv Maragh: "I'll be disappointed if he doesn't improve at two turns," said Maragh, "The great thing about him is that we haven't seen the best of him yet. He hasn't hit his ceiling. So he just might be a superstar horse who gets better each time."………………………I hate to put Tax this far down, I really do. This colt by Arch was dead game in winning the Withers on this oval last time out and all reports indicate he has looked sensational in the mornings. Trainer Danny Gargan, who has a really cute dog that he takes everywhere, is beaming with confidence: "He's been training phenomenal. He couldn't work any better. He's really good right now. I just hope we get a clean trip."……………….Honorable Mentions: Outshine is a $625,000 son of Malibu Moon who finished right behind Tacticus in the Tampa Bay Derby after whipping $75,000 optionals previously. Still another with rising speed figures and you get the third start off the layoff angle………………Hoffa’s Union looked like a world beater when breaking his maiden by 15 ½ lengths and scoring a 95 speed figure in his racing debut at Laurel. Gelding by Union Rags could be any kind…………..Just a few other side notes: Final Jeopardy improved dramatically when stretched out in distance in his last………Overdeliver won his debut and then gamely chased Win Win Win in a track record setting performance……..Joevia is your long shot in this spot. By Shanghai Bobby, he finished a neck behind Haikal two back at 18-1 then gamely chased the streaking Alwaysmining at Laurel in his last……Unfortunately Not That Brady, after rattling off four strong races in a row, looks like a complete throw out in this spot. The son of Big Brown out of the heart warming story of Lisa’s Booby Trap, was basically pulled up in the stretch of the Gotham and was beaten by a no exaggeration 75 lengths. Rumors continue to swirl he bled through Lasix in that race and is nursing a quarter crack as well. That’s too bad, the story behind is dam is a special one.
Santa Anita Park
Race: 3 (4:00PM EST Post)
Santa Anita Oaks
Bellafina is a gorgeous, $800,000 daughter of Quality Road who is 5 for 7 in her career and 3 for 3 on this oval. As I said two weeks ago before she scratched out of the Sunland Park Oaks, she looked terrific in winning her first start of the year while in nothing more than an in hand gallop. She came back, stretched out in distance and although the finish was closer than her connections would have wanted, it was understandable. After ripping a half mile in :46.1 over a heavy track labeled “good”, she had every right to tire towards the end…..narrow margin is a super, duper competitive horse race……………….Chasing Yesterday broke poorly and was extremely wide her entire journey but was still able to win the aforementioned Sunland Park Oaks conclusively. This Grade: 1 winning, half sister of the great American Pharoah wheels back on two weeks rest in this spot so fitness won’t be an issue nor will the distance as she is 2 for 2 at 8 ½ furlongs……………………Flor de La Mar is a $500,000, Amazonian filly by Tiznow who couldn’t have looked any better in winning at first asking. Throw out the NW1X race last time out when she went down in flames as the 3/5 favorite as she never looked comfortable on the sloppy track. You could see she was struggling mightily leaving the half mile pole. Mega talented filly is being asked a lot of in this spot, but Baffert doesn’t put them where they don’t belong.
Race: 8 (6:30PM EST Post)
Santa Anita Derby
Although Two Year Old Colt Champion Game Winner suffered his first career defeat in the Rebel last time out, it must be noted he ran a huge race. Colt by Candy Ride was making his first start in 4 ½ months and looked hopelessly beaten on the turn for home and into the lane. In fact, he hung slightly at the sixteenth pole but then turned on the afterburners only to come up a whisker short on the wire. Two strong subsequent works since, including a bullet 6F move 5 days ago, should have him cranked most of the way up for this…………………The vaunted Instagrand, a $1.2 million purchase won his first two starts by colossal margins but was put away for eight months, chased a wickedly fast pace in the Gotham in his comeback race March 9. All things considered (the race tactics employed by Castellano and his first race off a long layoff) I though he ran very well to get the “show dough” in that spot. That race, and back to back bullet 5F works, should have him tighter for this…………..You KNOW this is good horse race when I have to put Roadster in the third slot. This $525,000 son of Quality Road could not have looked any better while beating NW1x other than’s in his first start back in almost six months due to a leg injury. I loved the way he was moving down the lane and the fact he got the last quarter mile in an excellent :24.2. His speed figures are strong and consistent and Big Money Mike gets the leg up………………….Honorable Mention: Nolo Contesto is a talented and improving son of the late Pioneerof the Nile. But the fact still remains, other than an awkward start, he was beaten fair and square by Roadster last time out.
Race: 10 (7:30PM EST Post)
Santa Anita Handicap
McKinzie is the very handsome colt by Street Sense who is clearly one of the better older males in training today even with a tough beat to the late Battle of Midway in his last. Bay colt is 5 for 8 in his career, 5-3-2-0 on this surface and I love the work pattern coming into this. The only concern is the 10 furlongs as that might be his Achilles heel. Past that, he looks much the best here………………..Gift Box is razor sharp right now. This six year old by Twirling Candy is about a head away from coming into this riding a four race wins streak, topped off by winning the traditional prep race for this, the San Antonio Handicap….clearly the main threat to McKinzie here……………….I’ll be keeping an eye on Campaign, who is a $675,000 son of Curlin, as he ran huge in his first start for new trainer John Sadler last time out………………….Honorable Mention: Prime Attraction has shown improved early speed in his last two starts and could be a long shot menace if left alone on an uncontested lead in this spot.
​
By: Gerard Apadula
Director of Equine Operations and Development
Knights of the Round Stable Thoroughbred Racing Team
[[email protected]](mailto:[email protected])
2019- Record: 19-64 = 30% (My Plays: -$2,314.14)
2018- Record: 107-261= 41%
2017- Record: 92-235 = 39%
2016- Record: 91-229 = 40%
2015- Record: 67-180 = 37%
2014- Record: 29-73 = 40%
2013- Record: 20-59= 34%
2012 -Record: 24-73= 33%
2011 –Record: N/A
2010- Record: 24-74= 33%
Little Bets N’ Pieces
**** Another one bites the dust:
Portland Meadows, owned by The Stronach Group, will be closing their doors for good in June.
A report indicates the 63-acre property will become an “urban logistics facility.”
Opened in 1946, Portland Meadows offered both Thoroughbred and Quarter Horse Racing. It was the first track to offer night racing and also hosted concerts for major acts.
The Stronach Group acquired the property in 2011.
​
**** Monomoy Girl is recovering from a mild case of colic that is expected to sideline her for about three weeks and will prevent her from making her eagerly awaited 4 year old debut May 3 in the $500,000 La Troienne Stakes at Churchill Downs.
Monomoy Girl is at WinStar Farm near Versailles, KY., and will be re-evaluated next week to determine when she can resume training.
Trainer Brad Cox hopes to have her back in his barn by May 1.
"It's unfortunate," Cox said. "The timing is not good, but it is what it is and we have to put the horse first."
Cox added the $700,000 Ogden Phipps Stakes at Belmont Park June 8 may be a "possibility" for her season debut because she has not lost much fitness in the last week, but added that he will not decide on her next start until "she puts in a good (five-furlong) workout."
​
**** 2018 Triple Crown winner Justify will shuttle to Coolmore Australia for the 2019 Southern Hemisphere breeding season, where he will stand for a private fee.
Justify will stand alongside fellow Triple Crown winner American Pharoah.
“Justify (a son of Scat Daddy) was a phenomenal racehorse who re-wrote the history books through his achievements on the track. It is an absolute privilege to stand him at Coolmore Australia alongside our other Triple Crown winner American Pharoah, who has already been so well supported by Australasian breeders” said Coolmore Australia Principal, Tom Magnier.
“Scat Daddy was an incredible sire who has made an instant impact as a sire of sires and we look forward to standing his best son in Jerry’s Plains.”
​
**** Lady Pauline, a half sister to Lady Aurelia, will make her racing debut Friday at Keeneland in a 4 1/2-furlong sprint. The filly will break from post 9 with Johnny V. in the irons.
​
​

My father's does a yearly write up for the derby
Enjoy!
As I sit down at my computer to put keystrokes to the screen (the old pen to paper analogy) for my
analysis of the 143 rd Kentucky Derby, I am once again struggling to come up with the winner. For
those of you who follow the colts as they make their way to Louisville, you undoubtedly know that
this year’s entrants have one thing in common – they are, for the most part, consistently
inconsistent! For example, last year’s 2-yo champ – Classic Empire –threw in a real clunker in the
Holy Bull and then went on the sidelines due to some physical problems. Gormley was soundly
beaten in the BC Juvenile (by Classic Empire) and in the San Felipe. A maiden – Irap – won the
Bluegrass. Irish War Cry never ran a lick in the Fountain of Youth, likewise for Gunnevera in the
Florida Derby. You see where this is going don’t you?
Anyway I will take an in-depth look at the top 20 colts using some old school handicapping (dosage,
dual- qualifiers, number of starts, etc.) and personal intuition based on my previous 47 Derbies to try
to come up with the winner, or at least a nice exacta or trifecta ticket. I will analyze the colts based
on the number of points they accumulated on “The Road to Louisville” not in the order that I think
they will run. Here we go.
Girvin: By far the highest point getter with 150 points is, in my opinion, going to be over-bet in the
Derby and I think his chances for success are limited based on the following. 1) He has only four
lifetime starts and didn’t start running until December 16 th . I find that colts with this pattern have
been rushed to make the Derby and don’t have a very good foundation under them. 2) Girvin is his
trainer’s (Joe Sharp) first Derby starter and a trainer’s first Derby entrant usually doesn’t win. 3)
Mike Smith looks to have the mount on Girvin for the Derby as his regular jock, Brian Hernandez, will
ride McCraken. Even though Mike is arguably the best rider in America, he has only one Derby win
and Brian Hernandez chose to ride another colt. I don’t think that Girvin will win the race but he
might fill out an exacta or trifecta box.
Classic Empire: Last year’s 2-yo champion, has had a very spotty year to say the least. His positives
are: A) He had 2 wins over the CD track as a 2-yo, B) He was the 2-yo champ last year, and, C) He ran
well in the Arkansas Derby (3 winners of the race have won the KY Derby) coming from off the pace
to win. The negatives surrounding him are: A) He missed a lot of training this year with hoof and
back injuries. B) He has had only 2 starts this year, while this is not a show stopper, will he be fit
enough off those two starts to navigate 1-1/4 miles? C) He has earned over $2M and I believe that
colts who have earned this much going into the Derby do not fare well in the race (although this is
based on a very limited sample). D) His dosage index is 5.00 which is above the historic dosage
threshold of 4.00 (see the footnotes at the end of this article for a definition of dosage). Lately the
dosage theory has not necessarily held up, I wouldn’t be surprised if this colt goes off as the favorite,
but I have my doubts about him winning the race.
Gormley: Winner of the GR1 Santa Anita Derby and the GR1 Front Runner ties him with Practical
Joke for the most GR1 wins of the Derby entrants. He was soundly beaten in both the San Felipe and
the BC Juvenile and his win in the SA Derby produced a very slow last 1/8 mile time, not a positive
sign for Churchill’s long stretch. On the positive side: A) He is a dual-qualifier, B) He has a nice dosage
profile, C) His sire, Malibu Moon, sired Orb to win the KY Derby, D) Ten winners of the SA Derby have
gone on to win the KY Derby, and, E) He gets the services of Victor Espinoza who knows how to win
the Derby having ridden War Emblem, California Chrome and American Pharoah to victory. I kind of
like his chances to get in the money.
Irap: The only maiden to win the Bluegrass Stakes (10 winners of the Bluegrass have also won the
Derby) at Keeneland, I don’t know what to make of him. Being the traditionalist that I am, I cannot
bet a colt to win the Derby who has only one lifetime win on his resume. He has run pretty well in
stakes races and his connections know what it takes to win the Derby (having won with Nyquist and
I’ll Have Another). That being said, there is no way I can support him on Derby day.
Irish War Cry: Here’s another colt that looked good when winning the Holy Bull (where he beat
Classic Empire and Gunnevera), then looked horrible losing the Fountain of Youth to Gunnevera and
Practical Joke), and then looked good winning the Wood Memorial - even though he didn’t beat
much that day. He may be a little light on foundation having only raced 5 times but this son of Curlin
he is a colt with some upside potential. I’m not sure he can win the Derby but I may include him in
my exotic wagers.
Thunder Snow: Well the Saudi’s are going to try again to win the Derby with this colt. So far the
rulers of Dubai have not had any success running in America’s greatest race; I don’t see them taking
the trophy home this year either! This Irish bred began his career in Europe with 6 turf starts as a 2-
yo but has raced only twice this year in Dubai. He has run, and won, at 1-3/16 mi (farther than any
other Derby entrant) and has carried more than the Derby weight of 126 pounds in his career.
However, I don’t like horses that run in Dubai in March and then ship to the US to run in May – that
is a long journey for anyone to take let alone a 3-yo colt. I will pass on this one.
Always Dreaming: This Todd Pletcher trained son of Bodemeister looked great winning the Florida
Derby , the fastest 1-1/8 mi race this year, over State of Honor and Gunnevera and adds to
Pletcher’s arsenal for the Derby (he currently has 5 possible runners in the top twenty colts). Note
that fourteen previous winners of the Florida Derby have gone on to win the Kentucky Derby
including last year’s winner Nyquist. This colt has never been out of the money in 5 career starts and
has always been well supported at the windows. Even though he is a little light on starts, he has
been coming to hand this year with three impressive wins (although it did take him 3 tries to break
his maiden). His dosage index is a little high at 5.00 (see Classic Empire) and his Florida Derby win
was a new high speed figure for him which means he may be susceptible to “bouncing” (regressing)
off that effort. Anyway, I am really intrigued by this guy and he may be my win bet. He’s in the
exotics for sure.
Gunnevera: One of the more accomplished runners in the field with 9 career starts, this colt has
been knocking heads with many of the contenders in the field. He has been beaten by Always
Dreaming, State of Honor, Irish War Cry and Classic Empire. He in turn has beaten Practical Joke
and Classic Empire. His trainer, Antonio Sano, has never run a colt in the KY Derby (see Girvin) and
since this is his first entry in the race,statistically he is not likely to win the Derby. Javier Castellano
looks like he will retain the mount in the Derby – not a bad jock to have on your colt. His dosage
profile has representation in each of the five dosage categories, which is a good sign from a breeding
perspective and he is a dual-qualifier. All in all, I like the colt but I am afraid that his negatives
outweigh his positives; he may be used in the exotics.
Practical Joke: This Chad Brown trainee is a dual-qualifier but his dosage profile is pretty light on
representation. He has never been out of the money in 6 career starts so he is a competitive sort of
colt. He is also the only other two time GR1 stakes winner in the race (see Gormley). He couldn’t
catch Irap in the Bluegrass and has been beaten by Gunnevera and Classic Empire. With only two
starts this year he is a little light on race experience, and his only win at a mile or longer came in the
one-turn Champagne at Belmont. While he was closing in the Bluegrass, the last 1/8 mi in that race
was run in a very slow 13 1 seconds.He should have been able to catch the maiden Irap but he didn’t.
I have liked this colt all year, but I have my doubts whether he can be in the money come May 6 th .
J Boys Echo: His only significant win, the Gotham, came over Aqueduct’s inner dirt track ( not sure
why Dale Romans had him in NY over the winter) and he strikes me as a colt who is still trying to find
himself. He was beaten in the Bluegrass by Irap, Practical Joke and McCraken but has an excuse for
that effort having bobbled and getting bumped at the start. Robby Albarado was his regular pilot but
Robby is now out with a broken leg so this guy will get a new jock, not a good thing this close to the
Derby. I don’t really have a positive feeling about this colt so I will take a pass on him come Saturday.
State of Honor: This Mark Casse colt has the most career starts of any Derby entrant – 10- but only 4
of those were run over dirt, where he is winless. He has only one career win - on synthetic but he
has run well racing on dirt in several stakes races in Florida. He has been beaten by Always
Dreaming, Tapwrit and McCraken in those stakes efforts but has been close to all of them at the
finish. For those of you looking for a price in the exotics, this might be your guy as he always seems
to be close. As for me, I’ll wait until I get to CD and look at him up close and personal before making
any decisions about betting him.
Tapwrit: Another of Pletcher’s potential entries, this $1.2M son of Tapit won the Tampa Bay Derby
beating State of Honor, but threw in a stinker of a race in the Bluegrass Stakes as the second betting
choice behind McCraken when he blew the start. He obviously has good breeding and his owner was
ready to spend over a million dollars for him, so who knows? Right now I am leaning away from him.
Malagacy: Another Pletcher trainee, this colt did not race as a 2-yo and we know what that means.
The last colt to win the Derby without racing as a 2-yo was Apollo in 1882 so given that stat I cannot
play this colt. Besides he also has a dosage index of 6.20, way over the 4.00 guideline. He was a close
up 5 th in the Arkansas Derby where he was ridden by Javier Castellano, who looks like he will ride
Gunnevera in the Derby. Given all these “negatives” I wouldn’t be surprised if Pletcher decides not
to run him.
Hence: Every year there seems to be a “wise guy” horse (whatever a “wise guy” is) and this year
Hence might be that horse. Obviously those who think he has a chance, at a long price, are thinking
of Mine That Bird. Like Mine That Bird, this colt also won the Sunland Derby, but maybe that’s where
the similarities end. He ran a career best speed figure in his Sunland win so I suspect he will
“bounce” off that effort. I’m not a big fan of betting colts in the Derby who win races in New Mexico
(I actually thought Mine That Bird would run dead last in the 2009 Derby but he won at 50-1- Oh
well). If you must bet him, bet him in the exotics – I will pass on him.
Fast and Accurate: His claim to fame is that he won the Spiral Stakes at Turfway Park over a
synthetic track. This colt has had only one start on real dirt and ran 5 th in that effort and his front
running style may compromise his chances in the Derby. Animal Kingdom also won the Spiral and
then went on to win the 2011 Derby; however, Fast and Accurate is no Animal Kingdom. However, it
should be noted that Fast and Accurate has been working well over the dirt track at the CD training
center. I would be hard pressed to bet this colt but his trainer Mike Maker is no slouch so be my
guest if you think he can get in the money.
McCraken: This colt loves CD, scoring 3 wins in 3 starts at the oval. He has never been out of the
money in 5 career starts but faltered in the Bluegrass Stakes as the 8-5 favorite when he was closer
to the pace than usual. He lost to Irap and Practical Joke in that race. This son of Ghostzapper is a
dual-qualifier, has a nice looking dosage profile and retains the services of Brian Hernandez in the
irons (see Girvin). He has won all his races coming from off the pace and if he gets the right pace
scenario he should have a say in the outcome. His trainer, Ian Wilkes, is not having a very good year
winning with only 7% of his mounts and this is Ian’s first Derby entrant as a trainer (see Girvin and
Gunnevera), though he was the assistant trainer to Carl Hafzger in 2007 and should have gained
some knowledge on handling the Derby from that experience. Though McCraken only as two starts
this year, he should be one of the top three choices and must be respected in spite of his trainer’s
shortcomings.
Battle of Midway: This is another colt that did not race as a 2-yo (see Malagacy) and the Derby will
be his 5 th race in 15 weeks so I will have to pass on him. However, A) He does have a nice dosage
profile with representation in each of the 5 categories, B) He has never been out of the money in 4
career starts, C) Made a good run in the SA Derby, and, D) Is trained by Jerry Hollendorfer. Even with
those positives, I can’t play him.
Patch: Another of the Pletcher armada and another colt who did not race as a 2-yo (see Malagacy
and Battle of Midway) and he only has 3 career starts. He has never been out of the money in those
three starts but I can’t bet a colt who is only a maiden winner. He ran 2 nd to Girvin in the LA Derby
but Todd should not run him in the KY Derby.
Battalion Runner: Yet another possible Pletcher entry who is lightly raced, never out of the money in
4 career starts and probably should skip the Derby. He was a good 2 nd to Irish War Cry in the Wood
as the race favorite (how the hell did that happen?). His breeding is good but the race isn’t run on
bloodlines alone, I will pass on this one.
Untrapped: The 2 nd Asmussen colt in the top 20 (see Hence), has only a maiden win to his name and
has been beaten by the likes of Classic Empire, Lookin At Lee, Malagacy, Sonneteer, and Girvin in
his last 3 starts. He donned blinkers for the first time in his last start and they didn’t seem to help.
Mike Smith rode him in his last race and is now going to ride Girvin. He has been in the money in 5
of his 6 lifetime starts -the lone out of the money finish was when he wore blinkers. Will he keep the
blinkers on in the Derby and if he does or doesn’t I don’t think it will matter. I get the feeling that
this colt is still trying to find himself and the First Saturday in May is not the time to see what you
got. I will pass.
So that does it for the current top twenty colts, but things can change and some colts will withdraw
from the race (as suggested in some of my comments on specific colts). So I will give you some
bonus coverage of a few more colts just in case.
Lookin At Lee: Another Asmussen colt that looks similar to Untrapped. He put blinkers on 4 starts
ago and it doesn’t seem like they did much to move him forward. He had 6 starts as a 2-yo so he has
a solid foundation under him. He also had a nice layoff from November to February - I usually like to
see a break like this between a colt’s 2nd and 3 rd year. However, he has been beaten by Classic
Empire 3 times and has also been behind Malagacy, Soneteer, Untrapped and Practical Joke when
he faced them. I think he’s a notch below others in the race so I will pass.
Soneteer: Like State of Honor this colt has 10 lifetime starts but is still a maiden (at least State of
Honor has 1 win in his career). Also, this colt has 5 starts this year - too many for a Derby starter. He
was 112 to 1 odds in the Rebel Stakes against Malagacy (though he did run 2nd ), plus his dosage
index is a little high at 5.00. I think it would be unwise for trainer Keith Desormeaux to “throw this
guy to the wolves”. Please don’t run him!
Royal Mo: I don’t like Soneteer’s chances in the Derby and this colt ran 9 th in the Rebel behind
Soneteer that day so it stands to reason that I shouldn’t like this guy’s chances either. Royal Mo won
the GR3 Bob & Beverly Lewis at SA over 4 other colts including Irap but he didn’t beat much that
day. He was a close up 3 rd in the SA Derby behind Gormley and Battle of Midway so does that give
his supporters hope? It doesn’t give me any. If he gets in I wish him the best but I will not bet him.
Local Hero: The 4 th Asmussen trainee on this list, he has never been out of the money in 5 lifetime
starts but he only has a maiden win to his credit. Girvin, Patch and Untrapped all finished ahead of
him in his last 3 starts; you can review what I think of them and that will give you an idea of where I
stand with this guy. He seems to want to either have the lead or be up close and both of those
running styles will not serve him well on May 6 th . If he gets in I will not be putting any money on him.
Okay, so there you have my reviews of the potential entrants in the race, what now? How do I
approach this Derby so that I can make some hard earned money?
Well for starters, I like a colt that had a freshening between his 2 and 3 year old campaigns and a colt
that seems to be peaking at the right time. Well that puts me on Always Dreaming. I hope he goes
off around 5-1 since I think Classic Empire will be the favorite at around 7-2. Todd is in a good
position to win his 2 nd Derby with this guy so my win money will likely be on Always Dreaming.
I always like to box a few other contenders with my win bet so I will play a 4-horse exacta box using
Always Dreaming, McCraken, Gormley and Gunnevera . Yeah I know what you’re all saying “Isn’t
that a chalky exacta box Ed?” You are right it looks chalky but with a 20 horse field the odds will be
spread out and hopefully I will cash a decent ticket.
I will also play a 5 - horse trifecta box using Always Dreaming, McCraken, Gormley, Hence and
Classic Empire. Noticed that I dropped Gunnevera from the tri box and added Classic Empire and
Hence. I am assuming that Gunnevera will run either 1 st or 2 nd or be off the board.
If I feel lucky I could play a 6- horse superfecta and add Girvin to the mix – I’ll just have to see how
I’m doing.
Anyway I might not bet this way at all when I get to the window Saturday evening, as always I
reserve the right to change my mind and not bet anything like this. Anyway, good luck to everyone
no matter how you bet.
Dosage explained:
Dosage theory attempts to predict ability based upon the analysis of superior male ancestors in a
horse’s pedigree and is used by gamblers and breeders to forecast the likely distance over which a
horse will excel. A colt with a dosage index of less than 4.00 is considered to have an excellent
chance of successfully running the 1-1/4mi distance of the Derby.
A dosage profile is divided into five categories: Brilliant, Intermediate, Classic, Solid, and
Professional. The categories correspond to a range of distance potential from Brilliant (highest speed
and least stamina) to Professional (lowest speed and greatest stamina). Classic represents the
“ideal" balance of speed and stamina.
For many years through the 1980’s and 1990’s dosage was all you really needed to focus on to come
up with the contenders. In the last 20 years some horses with a dosage index of more than 4.00 have
won the Derby. However, I don’t believe that dosage should be overlooked when trying to find the
colt that can get the distance.

Well, if this year’s Florida Derby, featuring two unbeaten colts, the likely favorites for the 2016 Kentucky Derby, is any indication of how the real Derby will be run, Nyquist is the colt to beat. He handily defeated the undefeated Mohaymen in the Florida race when many fans all but conceded the race to Mohaymen. After all, Nyquist had to: 1) fly in from CA, 2) race over a new surface, 3) have only his 2nd start since October, and 4) face the mighty, $2.2M, Shadwell colt on his home turf. These obstacles looked formidable on paper, but the race is not run on paper and neither is the Derby.
The colts will be listed in order of the points they have earned while racing on the Derby trail, not according to how I think they will finish. I apologize in advance if some of the terminology used herein is “Greek” to some of the readers but I think you will get the point(s). So here we go.
Gun Runner: This colt was the impressive winner of the Louisiana Derby over fellow Derby aspirants Tom’s Ready and the LA Derby favorite Mo Tom, who was given a horrible ride by Corie Lanerie when he tried to come up along the rail and lost all chance. Gun Runner has won 4 out of 5 career starts, losing his only race over a sloppy track @ CD (rain on Derby day would not help his cause). He likes to lay close to the pace (mid pack) so that would be advantageous in a 20 horse field. Even though he has only 2 starts in 2016, he will have to be considered a contender and should go off at single digit odds. His pedigree suggests that the 1-1/4 mile distance will not be an issue.
Nyquist: This undefeated colt, and last year’s two-year old champion, will probably be the favorite in this year’s race and will try to emulate American Pharoah’s 2015 accomplishment of winning the Derby after being the 2-yo champ. Nyquist is out of this year’s hot young sire Uncle Mo, as is Outwork and the jury is still out on whether or not Uncle Mo’s offspring can get the classic distance of 1-1/4 miles. Therein lies the biggest knock to Nyquist winning the Derby on May 7 th . Also, like several others in here, he is entering the Derby off only 2 starts in 2016 (Note: several recent winners of the Derby only had 2 starts in the year they ran in the race), but he has 4 Grade 1 wins in his 7 lifetime starts and earnings of more than $3M (enhanced by a $1M bonus for winning the FLA Derby). Nyquist should be forwardly placed in the early stages of the race but we will have to wait and see what happens that last ¼ mile.
Exaggerator: Winner of the SA Derby over a sloppy track in his last start, you never know which Exaggerator will show up on any given race day. This colt looked super in his Santa Anita win, coming from way out of it and pulling away to win by 6 lengths. He is a “dual qualifier” * and has a pedigree that says the distance should not be an issue. He has earned $1.3M in three wins on “off” tracks so perhaps the sloppy conditions at SA last out moved him way up. If he catches an “off” track Derby day, you better pay attention, on the other hand if the track is fast he may not even be in the money. Oh, one last point, if he wins it will be a first in that his Trainer Keith Desormeaux and his jockey Kent Desormeaux are brothers.
Outwork: Another Uncle Mo colt who was the winner of the Wood Memorial over a muddy track in his last start. This lightly raced colt, 4 career starts with only one start as a 2-yo, will draw some wagering support on Derby day based on: 1) his Wood win, 2) his trainer, Todd Pletcher, 3) his jockey, John Velazquez and 4) his flamboyant owner Mike Repole. He likes to go to the front if he can, but that strategy may not work to his advantage in the Derby. I don’t think he has the seasoning or the pedigree to get the distance (see Nyquist). I think there are other, more likely winners than him.
Brody’s Cause: Winner of the Blue Grass Stakes in his last start at Keeneland, this Dale Roman’s trained runner has two Grade 1 wins in 6 lifetime starts. He broke his maiden at CD so he is right at home on that oval. This colt’s running style as a come-from- behind type might compromise his chances in a 20 horse field on May 7th . Like a few others in here, he is a “dual qualifier” * and being out of Giant’s Causeway he should not have any trouble getting the distance. The pace for this year's Derby may not be that fast given the lack of colts that need the lead so I suspect his chances will be compromised somewhat by a reasonable (i.e. not fast) pace. I have always been high on this colt and IF he gets a good pace to run at and IF he can stay out of trouble, I expect him to hit the board. Two big IF’s however.
Creator: This guy really jumped into the Derby picture with his good win in the Arkansas Derby. However, there are a few issues with him. One, it took him 6 tries to break his maiden – not what you’d expect from a classy colt and, two, he was carrying 118 pounds in his Arkansas win ( the lightest weight carried by a Derby prep winner in the field) and will have to pick up 8 pounds going into the Derby. He has a come-from- behind running style so like Brody he’s going to need some help with the pace and luck to stay out of trouble if he is to have a chance. He is Asmussen’s 2nd entry (see Gun Runner). Of the two, Gun Runner probably has the better chance to win. The Derby will be his 5th start since mid-February and he has been racing regularly, without much of a break, since September 2015 – this is a little more racing than you would expect before the big day.
Lani: Well I can’t really say much about this Japanese colt except that he raced in Dubai in March and won the UAE Derby, run at 1-3/16 miles. He has probably the best dosage profile of the colts entered in the Derby with representation in all 5 categories of the profile. Horses that race in Dubai generally need several months between races to recuperate from the travel there and back and this colt went from Japan to Dubai to Kentucky. I will pass on this one.
Mor Spirit: This colt has been favored in all 7 of his career starts for trainer Bob Baffert and has run 1st or 2nd in each race. He won’t be favored in his 8th start and I don’t think he will be 1 st or 2nd either. Like several others in here he is a “dual qualifier” * who has raced almost exclusively in Southern California (he had one race @ CD). He likes to race mid-pack and make a run at the 1/8 pole. Gary Stevens is his regular jockey and Gary certainly knows the ropes in the Derby having won three, but none since 1997. He is a PA bred and only two other PA breds have won the Derby – remember Smarty Jones? He is out of Eskendereya and a Dixie Union mare so the 1-1/4 mile shouldn’t be an issue, but the competition will be. He is o’fer in two races over sloppy tracks, including CD, so if it rains on Derby day bet at your own risk. I would like to be more positive about this colt but he really doesn’t do much for me. However, I wouldn’t fault anyone betting on him at a double digit price.
Mohaymen: Was undefeated until he met up with Nyquist in the Florida Derby (see my opening preamble). This $2.2M son of Tapit out of a Dixie Union mare should have no problem getting the distance and like three others in here he is a “dual qualifier”*. His trainer is Kiaran McLaughlin and many bettors will be pulling for Kiaran to get his first Derby win – including yours truly. He has a good running style for this race, laying mid-pack, and likes to grab the lead about the 3/16 pole (remember, the winner of the Derby usually has the lead at the 1/8 pole). He is working great at CD and I can forgive him for that subpar effort in FLA. I look for big things from him come May 7th.
Danzing Candy: California speed can either kill a colt’s chances in the Derby or be an asset. I’m not sure that this colt’s speed will benefit him much with the likes of Outwork and Nyquist keeping him company up front. He apparently didn’t like the slop at SA in his last start so if it rains Derby day… He only has a Grade 2 win to his credit, but he does have the services of Mike Smith, who knows a thing or two about riding in the Derby even though he has only won it once and that was on a 50-1 shot. His pedigree is borderline as far as having the breeding to get the distance. I think he guns to the front, is hounded after a ¼ mile by the aforementioned colts and fades badly after a mile.
Destin: Pletcher’s 2 nd entry (see Outwork) and the less talented of the two, this colt will have the longest layoff before the Derby (56 days) of any colt in the race. He hasn’t run, or won, further than 1-1/16 miles and he owns no Grade 1 wins. While his sire, Giant’s Causeway , brings a dose of stamina into this pedigree, his dam’s sire was a sprinter. I don’t like the layoff, the lack of a race further than 1-1/16 miles and the fact that he is picking up 6 pounds from his last start. I guess I don’t think he has much of a chance even with Javier Castellano riding.
Suddenbreakingnews: In my estimation, this colt flew under the radar all year running at Remington and Oaklawn; I didn’t even know about him until the Arkansas Derby. He did launch a nice rally in the AR Derby but it looks like all he did was pass tiring colts in the stretch. He tends to come from far out of it and as previously stated that style of running may not bode well in a 20 horse field. He is a gelding and only 9 geldings have won the Derby, Funny Cide and Mine That Bird being recent gelded winners. His dosage index is above the historical threshold of 4.00, which really might not mean much these days but I still look at it as an indicator of a colt’s ability to get 1-1/4 miles. He will be a long shot, for the reasons stated above, and I don’t see him finishing in the money.
Oscar Nominated: He may be “Oscar” nominated but I don’t see him winning an award on the First Saturday in May! What you have here is a colt that has never raced on good old dirt! Of his 7 lifetime starts, 6 have been on the lawn and the other one on a synthetic surface at Turfway. Why do Mike Maker and the Ramseys think he can win the Derby? I am miffed as to why he is entered. This colt was claimed by the Ramseys off his maiden win at Belmont Park (I guess they wanted to own a Kitten’s Joy colt, after all they own Kitten’s Joy). How many Derby winners were once claimers –Charismatic comes to mind, but it is a rarity. This colt was a supplemental nominee (for $200K) to get into the Derby, which is really an afterthought on the Ramsey’s part, but they are dying to win this race and maybe this was their only chance. I can’t get behind this guy – he likely is no Charismatic and I think the Ramsey’s will have to wait until next year to try and win their first Derby!
Shagaf: The first of Chad Brown’s two potential Derby starters, this is a very lightly raced colt with only 4 lifetime starts, like Outwork who beat him in the Wood. Shagaf has been the favorite in each of his starts, but maybe he didn’t like the muddy conditions at Aqueduct. He wants to run close to the pace but did not get a clean trip in the Wood. It should be noted that Irad Ortiz Jr. chose to ride Brown’s other entry, My Man Sam, over this colt and this guy gets the services of Hector Rosario who has only ridden 34 horses this year- not an encouraging sign. He is owned by Shadwell Stable who also owns Mohaymen but I’m thinking Shadwell’s hopes lie with Mohaymen. I would be totally shocked if he ran in the money, but at a big price it would be a juicy exacta if both Shadwell entries were to finish 1-2.
Whitmore: This gelding has not won a graded stakes race although he has run competitively when in stakes company. As with Suddenbreakingnews, being a gelding does not bode well for winning the Derby. I bet him in the AR Derby but I doubt I will bet him in the KY Derby. He is trained by Ron Moquett who has only a 2% win record in graded stakes races( 1 win in 44 tries) and the Derby is the biggest graded stakes race in America. It should be noted that Victor Espinoza will ride Whitmore in the Derby replacing Irad Ortiz. Can Victor win his 3rd Derby in a row; no one ever has accomplished this feat so the odds are he won’t either. I will pass on this colt.
Tom’s Ready: This colt has only a maiden win in 9 career starts but he has run 2nd in two graded stakes and that gives him enough points to get into the starting gate on May 7th. Just because he has the points doesn’t mean he should go in the race! Colts like him just clutter up the field. His stablemate Mo Tom seems to be the better of the two, although he out finished that one in the LA Derby. He has been beaten by no less than four of the other Derby entrants, he has issues leaving the starting gate and has raced without a break since August 2015 – I will pass.
My Man Sam: Like Outwork and Shagaf this guy has only 4 lifetime starts. This colt is Chad Brown’s 2nd entry and Irad Ortiz chose to ride him over Shagaf . Given the two colts that Chad has entered in the Derby, I think Shagaf is the better of the two and I don’t like his chances either. I will look elsewhere for the winner.
Majesto: Really! A colt with only a maiden win running in the Derby! Well it took him 5 starts to break his maiden and then he runs 2nd in the FLA Derby to get the points to get into the Big race. He did finish ahead of Mohaymen that day but do you really believe he is a better colt than Mohaymen? He has run in 3 - 1-1/8 mile races so he is tested at a distance of ground. That being said, I am still not convinced he can run with this group but can he get 2nd or 3rd ? He would be a price in a tri or an exacta. You decide.
Trojan Nation: This colt has not even broken his maiden. Three maidens have won the Derby, the last being Brokers Tip in 1933 (the Fighting Derby). I’m sorry, I can’t back a maiden in America’s greatest horse race - no more to say. His connections are looking to get seats on Derby Day and that is that.
Mo Tom: Another Uncle Mo offspring, the 3 rd one to be in the starting gate at this writing – maybe this should be the Uncle Mo Derby! He has a win over the CD surface as a 2-YO and was competitive at the Fair Grounds as a 3-YO. He has improved in every start and Amoss decided to stay with Corey Lanerie in spite of the awful rides he gave this colt in his last two races. I assume Corey will not go inside in the Derby which means he will be wide and lose a lot of ground! If not for the bad rides this colt was given in his last few races, he would probably be single digit odds come Saturday, maybe he can redeem himself at a decent price. I might have to put him in my exotic bets.
Well the above colts are the current top 20 point getters but maybe one or two of them will not make it into the starting gate - sooo here a few couple more who might get in.
Fellowship: With 11 lifetime starts, this colt has by far the most races under his saddle (belt) than anybody. He has only two wins and one of them was against FLA state breds. He always puts in a good effort and was 3 rd in the FLA Derby to Nyquist but finished ahead of Mohaymen! He is a late running colt and that might work against him. Mark Casse just took over training this colt from Stanley Gold; that’s not something you want to see before running in the biggest race in America.
Adventist: A lightly raced colt who only has 4 career starts- all since December. I won’t waste much time on this colt as it seems he will likely run next in the Peter Pan Stakes – and not be a 7th of May Adventist. He only has a maiden win, and that was over Aqueduct’s inner dirt track, but he has run 3rd in 3 graded stakes since. If he goes in the Derby he will be a very long price.
Laoban: Since Adventist will probably pass the Derby I added this guy to the analysis. Another Uncle Mo colt – seems like we need mo Mo’s in the Derby. He is still a maiden so I refer the reader to Trojan Nation for the rest of the story.
Well that concludes my analysis of the top 23 colts that will likely make up the field. Now the hard part – how will the race unfold? Note that the following scenario assumes a fast track.
I think this year’s race will set up a lot like last year’s (remember American Pharoah, Firing Line and Dortmund ran 1,2,3 the entire race?). A few speed types go to the front; Outwork, Nyquist, Shagaf and Danzing Candy but not at a suicidal pace (:47-:48 for the half), they cruise along on the lead for the first ¾ mile (1:11- 1:12), followed closely by the off the pace types Mohaymen, Gun Runner, and Destin, the rest bide their time behind these 6. The mid pack runners Lani, Mor Spirit and Oscar Nominated launch their moves around the far turn as the field approaches the ¼ pole while the closers Mo Tom, Creator and Brody’s Cause need to go wide to find running room. The rest of the closers are stuck behind the wall of horses in front of them with nowhere to go. The race is on! As the leaders hit the top of the stretch, Nyquist has the lead but Mohaymen runs right up to his flank, Danzing Candy drops out of it while Gun Runner, Mor Spirit and Mo Tom chase the top two.
Brody’s Cause, Creator, Exaggerator and Whitmore launch their bids with a 1/8 mile to go. The race
that should have been in the FLA Derby is now on as Nyquist and Mohaymen are stride for stride. All eyes are on the two combatants at the 1/16 pole as Mohaymen gains a slight lead and then prevails over Brody’s Cause by 1-1/2 lengths at the wire. Nyquist drops back to 3rd , 50 yards from the finish; Gun Runner runs 4th.
Anyway I think it will go something like that! But we still have to make some money. So if the race were to run like I described, we would all be rich, but we know that the chances of it playing out like this are remote. However, here is how I will probably bet the race. Mohaymen to win as I do believe he will win and will offer a better price than Nyquist. A four horse exacta box with Mohaymen, Nyquist, Brody’s Cause and Mo Tom. A five horse trifecta box with these four plus Mor Spirit.
If the track is “off” I would put Exaggerator in the exacta box and take out Mo Tom and add Suddenbreakingnews in the trifecta and take out Mor Spirit.
We all know that it’s a horse race and anything can happen. This is my look into the Derby crystal ball 9 days before the race. I hope everyone enjoys the race win or lose!

I will continue the list of jockeys that I stated several days ago. The first list contained mostly jockeys everyone should be familiar with, so I will add jockeys a lot of you may not be very familiar with.
First, I will mention Willie Martinez. He is a veteran rider who is notorious for changing a horse's late running style and getting them out front and going gate to wire, especially on dirt. He did exactly that last Saturday at Tampa Bay Downs in the 9th race, but it came on the grass. The horse had shown no speed in his three lifetime starts but Willie got him to the lead by the first call after he broke in mid pack. I glanced at the race Saturday morning but decided to pass it because it looked like a chalky type race. He got off at odds of 88-1 and the favorite with Manuel Franco ran 2nd by a length. Around 14% lifetime winning % and 3300+ wins. Rides mostly in Ky but will occasionally pop up elsewhere on East Coast. Beware of especially in smaller stakes races.
Ronald Allen Jr-- Another veteran who is usually under the radar and will bring plenty of longshots in. He rides best slightly off the pace but has gone wire to wire many times. With 3600 lifetime wins, he usually rides and wins a lot for Gerald Bennett, a 20%+ lifetime winning trainer, mostly at Tampa Bay and in the Chicago area. Mostly wins claiming races at solid odds.
Dean Butler-- Excellent at judging pace, he normally wins on or near the lead. Rides at Tampa Bay in the winter but does better at Canterbury Downs in the summer, especially when riding for Bernell Rhone at both venues.
Tyler Gaffalione-- Another jockey who is good on pace types or slightly off the pace type horses. He rode regularly for Todd Pletcher at Gulfstream and GP West after Todd went to NY. Also rides for Charles Dickey and Ralph Nicks, but rarely wins with longshots. Leading turf jockey in wins nationwide last year and 2nd in wins on all surfaces, only to Irad Ortiz Jr.
Trevor McCarthy-- He is best with slightly off the pace type runners and will pop with a longshot, especially when riding for Jamie Ness, a 25+ % lifetime winning trainer. McCarthy is winning at a 19% lifetime mark but is still fairly young. Rides a lot at Tampa Bay but is more often seen in Maryland, Delaware and Philadelphia areas where he is often overlooked. Was regular rider of El Areeb last year.
Drayden Van Dyke-- Leading apprentice jockey in 2014, he has already proven his ability to ride turf horses with the best. Late last year he rode It Tiz Well to a victory in the Cotillion S by showing a skill rarely seen in young riders. Abel Talisman made an early move along the rail to the lead, but he did not panic and waited until he turned for home to asked her for her best run. She responded even though she lost considerable ground while 5 wide and ran by Mike Smith and the favorite with plenty left. The ride impressed Baffert enough that he put Drayden on his best 2 YO filly and she is now 3 for 3, including the G1 Starlet S. On the improve and will make his presence felt before long. Already has won 8 G1 races on 8 different horses. He performs best near the lead on dirt and slightly off the pace on grass.
William Antongeorgi III--- When overlooked, he is always a solid bet and usually rides from well off the pace. He rides regularly for Jerry Hollendorfer, Steven Miyadi and Steven Specht at Golden Gate Fields. The latter two is notorious for bringing home humongous longshots, with this jockey or others. He has burned me several times in the past three years by running by what looked like winners late. Only place I have seen him ride is at GG which has a synthetic track, so he probably would do well on grass, also.
Kerwin "Boom Boom" Clark---For many years, strictly a Louisiana circuit rider. Excellent on judging speed, he got his nicknamed for the many longshots he won on, usually on the lead. A winner of over 3000 lifetime races, he still rides at Delta Downs and Fair Grounds in the winter but will show up at Delaware Park in the summer time.
Richard Eramia--- A former leading jockey in Louisiana, he is an excellent judge of speed. He now rides mostly in Texas and Oklahoma but will pop up at Oaklawn Park also and won a race last weekend there after setting the pace and pulling away when challenge. Typical ride for him at 13-1. Eramia rode Sonneteer in last year's Rebel S when 2nd at 112-1.
C J McMahon-- A son of one of the all time leading QH rider in Louisiana, he found his home in the thoroughbred industry. After a slow beginning and a learning curve, he has flown under the radar but will win when you least expect him to. Better on a speed horse but can ride a late runner as evident aboard Sonneteer two weeks ago at Oaklawn Park, who won his 2nd lifetime race at almost 30-1. He has now pushed his lifetime winning % up to 15%, almost always with huge odds.
Rodney Prescott-- Excellent on pace horses and judging the pace, he is a veteran of more than 3500 wins. While his win % has fallen in the last few years, he is a jockey that can still surprise you, especially when overlooked. He rides regularly at Turfway Park and the Indiana race tracks.
Robby Albarado-- A veteran of the race track, he started riding in La in 1990. A winner of over 5000 races, he has a knack for getting along well with his mounts and can ride all types of horses. The regular rider of Horses of the Year Curlin and Mineshaft, he also had the mount aboard Animal Kingdom for the Ky Derby before being injured 3 days before the race. He also has won the BC Turf Mile aboard Court Vision at 65-1 and ran 2nd in the 2013 Ky Derby aboard Golden Soul at 34-1. A 7 time leading jockey at the Fair Grounds, he also has finished 2nd 7 times in the jockey standings at Churchill Downs.
There are many more I could add that can give you memories you would never forget. But the key to each and every one of the jockeys is the horse must be in tip top shape to perform their best. So, I will mention again, that I never bet any jockey simply because they are picking up a mount unless I feel the horse is ready to perform.

Don’t look now, but the road to the 2019 Kentucky Derby has started.
Churchill Downs, Belmont Park, Aqueduct, Keeneland and Los Alamitos have already run several races for two year olds who have long range plans for the Derby. Internationally, there have been two races in England run already and one in Japan.
On Sunday, Remington Park in Oklahoma City, OK will run the $400,000 Remington Springboard Mile for two year olds, as this is their long range race to start separating Derby pretenders from the Derby contenders. The eight furlong contest drew a field of eleven led by Epic Dreamer.
On Saturday, we will be looking at three races from Gulfstream Park in Florida headed by the $200,000, nine furlong Fort Lauderdale Stakes on the turf for three year olds and up.
While at Gulfstream we will also be looking at the Harlan’s Holiday Stakes, which will feature the gorgeous and mega talented Audible, and the My Charmer Stakes, a mile turf contest for three year olds and up fillies and mares.
Saturday, December 15, 2018
Gulfstream Park
Race: 5 (2:01 PM EST Post)
Harlan’s Holiday
I still think the incredibly handsome Audible is/was the second most talented three year old in the land in 2018. He started the year off taking down the Grade: 2 Holy Bull and then the Grade: 1 Florida Derby. I thought he ran lights out in the Kentucky Derby as well, as he had multiple traffic issues but still finished less than three lengths behind an eventual Triple Crown winner. This $500,000 son of Into Mischief then went on the shelf for 178 days but came back with a jaw dropping performance in his last at Churchill Downs. As far back as seventh at one point, he made an eye catching, five wide move on the turn to assume command of the race and cruised home two in front, stopping the clock in a sharp 1:22.2 for seven panels. This bay colt has worked well subsequently, is 5 for 7 in his career and, more importantly, he is 2 for 2 on this oval. The only thing that’s left is….are you willing to take what will probably be 1/5 or possibly 1/9 odds at post time? …………………………Village King looks to be about the only threat to Audible in this spot. After winning three of his first five starts in Argentina, this colt has clearly started to adapt to his new surroundings. He has progressively gotten better through his first three races in this country, topped off by a dead game win in the (rained off the turf) Red Smith Handicap at Aqueduct last time out. Trainer Todd Pletcher, who trains both Audible and this horse, sends out a solid 1-2 punch in this race……………………..Apostle is a $900,000 son of the “King of the (sales) Ring” Medaglia d’Oro. “MDO,” as he is affectionately called, sired an eye popping seven Grade: 1 winners last year and has sired more $1 million yearlings this year (8) than anyone else. Only two of greatest sires in the history of the sport (Northern Dancer and Storm Cat) had more. Not surprisingly, Apostle ran well in a turf experiment last time out and won his two previous races including one on this surface….looks best of the rest.
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Race: 9 (4:05 PM EST Post)
My Charmer Stakes
This race, and the other turf race (the Fort Lauderdale), get a little dicey with rain in the forecast for Saturday at Gulfstream so tread lightly should the turf course come up anything but firm. That said La Moneda, who sports a 9-6-2-0 record on the turf, is the logical choice here. This five year old mare had a four race win streak snapped by a poor ride (wide all the way around and a mistimed late move) in her last. In fact, that ride was so bad it probably cost the jockey the mount, as she gets a serious rider upgrade here (from Alvarado to Johnny V.). Additionally, she can handle some “give” in the ground and she is 4 for 4 at this distance……………………….. Play “Pin the Tail on the Donkey” with the rest of the field as they are closely matched. I’ll go with Bellavais who looked sensational beating high level optionals in her first race in almost a year, last time out. This $485,000, well bred (by Tapit out of Grade: 3 Stakes winner La Cloche, by the wickedly fast Ghostzapper) filly zipped a mile (a distance she is 4 for 7 at) in a strong 1:33 flat and she too can handle a little give in the ground…………………….I’m not a big fan of Capla Temptress, who is 0 for 5 this year, but she should appreciate the drop in class and not having to deal with star turf filly Rushing Fall in this spot like she did in two of her last three previous starts………………….Honorable Mentions: If Lafta draws in off the AEs, give her a look. Although this daughter of Kitten’s Joy will be taking a pretty big class hike, she is 2 for 2 at Gulfstream since coming over from France last year………………Cherry Lodge is a gorgeous, $450,000 filly by Bernardini who can pop a big race now and again. She will be stretching out in distance in this spot and with that, I suspect they will rate her off the pace and come with “one run”. If that’s the case, you could hear from her in deep stretch ……………..I’m Betty G has good speed but appears to be cycling out of form. A 22% Tyler Gaffalione, for whom she is 2 for 4 under, gets the leg up….could still be dangerous if left alone on an uncontested lead.
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Race: 11 (5:06 PM EST Post)
Fort Lauderdale Stakes
Qurbaan came from overseas and sprung a 13-1 upset in the Bernard Baruch at Saratoga in September. Five year old chestnut by broad spectrum sire Speightstown then launched a strong move leaving the half mile pole in the Grade: 1 Shadwell Mile in his last and, even though he hung like a cheap suit in deep stretch, he still managed to grab the “show dough”. He should relish the drop in class, the stretch out in distance and (hopefully) the firm turf course in this spot……...tepid pick in a tough one to figure out………………I’m not quite sure what happened to Glorious Empire in the Breeders’ Cup Mile last time out. The seven year old gelding showed speed for the first quarter mile but quickly shifted into reverse and backed all the way up to last before being eased late. His three previous races (all wins) were all top notch, highlighted by winning the Grade: 1 Sword Dancer at Saratoga two starts back. He has good speed, draws the rail, drops in class and cuts back in distance…certainly one or all of those factors should help him rebound in this spot…………………..After winning his last two “on the engine”, Blacktype is razor sharp right now. This French bred speedy seven year old won a Grade: 2 last time out and can handle a soft turf course…..figures prominent throughout………….....................…….Honorable Mentions: Albeit Projected in 0 for 6 this year, he always gives a good account of himself. This bay gelding has either won or finished less than two lengths behind the winner in each of his last seven straight races. That, readers, is consistency…………………………Mr Havercamp is 7 for 11 in his career. Although he might be a little better on the synthetic surface, he did win a Grade: 2 in Canada three starts back and then ran a strong second in a Grade: 1 two starts back, both on the turf. Also, that last work at Palm Meadows (4F- :47 flat, dogs up) just jumps off the page…………………………..I’m not quite sure what to make of Almanaar. Is it possible he may not have cared for turf courses labeled “good” in his last two, including being beaten by just 3 ¼ lengths in the Breeders’ Cup Mile last time out? Or is his form just erratic right now? I’ll go with the former and attack him like this….. If it’s a firm turf course come post time, I’ll move him up…if not, I’m going to leave him here…………………………Like Projected, Inspector Lynley is as consistent as the day is long. Five year old by Lemon Drop Kid rarely runs a bad race as his five on the board finishes in six races this year record would indicate………………..Zulu Alpha is peaking in form right now as he is just a neck shy of coming into this with a four race win streak in tow. My problem with him is even at peak form, I’m not sure he is good enough to beat these………………….Divisidero completely outran his odds (43-1) in the Breeders’ Cup Mile last time out when he finished fourth but was beaten by less than one length. Stretch runner by Kitten’s Joy likes this surface too, but he just doesn’t “win” often enough for me.
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^{Sunday, December 16, 2018}
Remington Park
Race: 11 (8:52PM EST Post)
Springboard Mile
Epic Dreamer has speed and the rail, which is always a dangerous combination. Although this colt by Orb hasn’t run in 51 days and will be trying this surface for the first time, he sports one of the most impressive work lines I’ve seen all year. Note the monster work over the deep surface of Palm Meadows on Nov 23 (5F- :58.3). Then note how he comes back a week later and rips a :47.4 half mile also at Palm Meadows, then comes to Remington Park and scorches a :47.1 half mile. Bottom line here is, he looks “revved up” for this and that last work also signals to me he will handle the RP surface just fine……close call in a fairly wide open horse race………………………It looks as though Dunph didn’t care for the sloppy track, or the wide trip, when checking in ninth, being beaten by 14 lengths in his last. Gelding by Temple City was super impressive winning his first two (dry track) starts, distance will be no problem and shows a strong work last week. I’m inclined to give him a “mulligan” for that last race and expect a good/bounce back performance here……………I think it’s a little out of control that trainer Steve Asmussen entered almost half (5) of this field (11). If they all start, and I doubt they will, the best of the bunch appears to be Long Range Toddy. This handsome colt by Take Charge Indy dead heated for fourth in his debut before pounding maidens in his second try, winning by almost six while coming home the last quarter in a decent :25 seconds flat. From there, he went off at over 10-1 and upset the field in the $100,000 Clever Trevor Stakes in his last. Although he cut back in distance for that race, I loved the way he withstood pace pressure on the lead, spurted away from the field at the three sixteenths pole, yet had enough left to fend off the late runners in deep stretch. I also like the ascending speed figures through all three career races, it signals to me he is getting better…………………………Honorable Mentions: Bankit used a brazen, four wide, sweeping run to lead, then drew off late in manhandling a NY State Bred field at Belmont in his last. Good looking colt improved his record to 5-2-2-0 with that win. It’s tough to get a read on whether this is a step up in class, a lateral move or a slight step down but no matter how you slice it, he figures bang up……………….Tone Broke seems to be coming to hand for, you guessed it, trainer Steve Asmussen as he was visually impressive in his last two races. Colt by Broken Vow broke his maiden by a colossal margin two back, and then came with a four wide rally to beat high level optionals last time out. Lastly, note the :24.3 seconds it took him to negotiate the last two furlongs, it’s among the fastest in this field…………………………………..Marquee Prince chased budding super star Improbable last time out when understandably being beaten by 10 lengths. His obviously meets no such rival (or monster) here and his previous two wins/races were good…………………….Six Shooter is improving with each subsequent race and has won two of his last three, highlighted by beating first level allowance foes while getting a mile in a good 1:36.4 last time out. That said, He’ll be stepping up in class big time here and the last quarter mile in his last race was run in a very pedestrian :26.3.
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By: Gerard Apadula
Director of Equine Operations and Development
Knights of the Round Stable Thoroughbred Racing Team
[[email protected]](mailto:[email protected])
2018- Record: 105-251= 42%
2017- Record: 92-235 = 39%
2016- Record: 91-229 = 40%
2015- Record: 67-180 = 37%
2014- Record: 29-73 = 40%
2013- Record: 20-59= 34%
2012 -Record: 24-73= 33%
2011 –Record: N/A
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Little Bets N’ Pieces
**** North America’s richest race, the Pegasus World Cup, field is beginning to take shape.
The connections of Breeders’ Cup Classic third place finisher Gunnevera committed their stretch runner to the Jan 26 race.
In addition to Gunnevera, Breeders’ Cup Classic winner Accelerate, Seeking the Soul, Bravazo and True Timber are also confirmed.
Michael Tabor, Susan Magnier, and Derrick Smith's Coolmore have purchased a spot for a horse “to be determined”.
2018 Florida Derby winner Audible, assuming he runs well and comes out of the Harlan Holiday Stakes well on Saturday, is also being pointed to the Pegasus World Cup.
At this writing, 2018 Cigar Mile winner Patternrecognition is “under consideration” for the Pegasus.
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**** Keros, a half-brother to Breeders' Cup Classic winner Blame, broke his maiden by 10 lengths on Saturday night at Turfway Park.
The four year old by First Samurai, who was ridden by Malcolm Franklin and is trained by Tommy Drury, covered six furlongs in 1:10.2.
Keros was making his first start since being gelded and his third start overall. Campaigned by Claiborne Farm and Adele Dilschneider, like Blame, Keros has earned $15,342.
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**** After recording a four furlong work in :47 seconds flat on Monday morning, it appears two time Grade:1 winner Bellafina will make an early return to the races for her three year old debut.
"She did it really easily. We weren't necessarily looking to go quite as quick as she did, but she did it super easily and was just feeling good," trainer Simon Callaghan said of the bullet work of 87. "It definitely was a very good work."
The effort marked Bellafina's third half-mile move at Santa Anita since finishing a disappointing fourth as the favorite in the Nov. 2 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies at Churchill Downs. Before Monday's workout, the daughter of Quality Road went in :50 flat Nov. 24 and :49 2/5 Dec. 2.
"She's doing really well," Callaghan added. "We gave her sort of a down period after the Breeders' Cup for a couple of weeks. She's been mentally very good. We brought her back galloping and based on this morning's work I think it's likely we'll bring her back in the (Jan 6 ) Santa Ynez Stakes."
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***** It looks as though super mare Winx will be back in training for 2019.
Trainer Chris Waller said on Twitter Tuesday the winner of 29 consecutive races, including an unprecedented four straight Cox Plates, is coming back off a rest and that a campaign for next spring (fall in Australia) is “likely.”
She'll be 8 years old in 2019.
“Winx has enjoyed her spell and commenced some light pre training at the farm a few weeks ago,” said Waller. “She has progressed well since returning, is bright and looks in excellent condition so I look forward to her return to our stables this week”.
“I plan to meet with the ownership group and (jockey) Hugh Bowman next week to discuss her immediate future.”
Winx is currently tied in the “World's Best Racehorse Rankings” with Cracksman.
In her career, she was won an incredible 33 out of 39 starts.
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This weekend features two races that offer qualifying points toward the Derby. Both are 1 1/8 mile and could offer relatively large payouts with some real unproven fields.
Saturday at Turfway Park (race 10) and my tepid top pick is the 11 horse (King and His Court) which is the only horse to have won at the distance. Hard race to handicap as most of the other entrants are turf horses. I also kind of like the 2, 4, and 8.
Sunday at Sunland Park (race 9) is the Sunland Derby and my top pick is the 7 horse (Kimbear) at 15-1. Love that he beat Sonneteer last out (he crushed that race, though it was only 7f...but distance shouldn't be an issue since he was closing toward the wire four races back at 1 1/16) and his works are great.
I don't buy the hype on Bronze Age and I think he will be over bet when people see he's Baffert's Hail Mary
I will wheel the 7 with the 12 Conquest Mo Money (9/2), the 2 (Hedge Fund at 6-1) and maybe use the 9 (Hence at 12-1) underneath.

How to bet on Horse Racing

Growing up, I never went to a steed track or saw a solitary steed race.

That all changed when I met Kate and wedded into a stallion race-cherishing family. Rick Surwilo, my dad in-law, had begun heading off to the circuit as a youngster with his family. This was a period before lotteries and club, and steed hustling was the main authoritative document of betting, so it was something truly diverse to go and do. His family lived in Connecticut yet had purchased somewhat home in Woodford, Vermont, and Rick's father wanted to take the spouse and children to the Green Mountain Race Track in Pownal, only a little routes south of there. They'd set up their grass seats by the completion line, and Grandpa Surwilo would take everybody's requests and go hand-off the wagers to the tellers.
When I began dating Kate, one of our to start with, and most sentimental, dates was the point at which she took me to the course here in Tulsa. We had an awesome time wagering on a couple horse races while cuddling in the cheap seats as an electrical storm came in.
After Kate and I got hitched, her folks would take us to the stallion races each other summer or somewhere in the vicinity, and even gave us poor love birds a little scratch to wager with. Rick's dad had since a long time ago passed away, however Gram Surwilo–every inch the cliché feisty Italian grandma–still wanted to go and wager on the horses, pretty much as she had in the days of yore in Vermont.
I truly delighted in these excursions with my more distant family, and putting down a couple wagers myself, yet I in fact had no clue what I was doing. I generally just picked the steeds with the names I enjoyed best.
So I seized the chance America's Best Racing offered me a few months prior to come see one of the six pre-Kentucky Derby races—the Spiral Stakes—at Turfway Park in Florence, Kentucky, and get a few lessons on the most proficient method to wager on the horses. Kate and I had an extraordinary time there and took in a ton. Wagering on stallions is significantly more convoluted than I had envisioned, yet it's truly a lot of fun.
Today, I'll share a portion of the fundamentals of what I realized, so that the stallion dashing amateur can exploit this superb spring climate and go down to their neighborhood course (or the Kentucky Derby!) feeling like they recognize what they're doing.

Why Go to a Horse Race?

Before we get into the specialty of wagering, we should discuss why you'd need to visit a stallion circuit in any case. Maybe you're considering, "That is something my grandpa jumped at the chance to do, however I'm not intrigued."
Watching horse dashing at the more elevated amounts of the game is a superb ordeal. I'm truly very little for whatever other types of betting, and by and by don't see the enjoyment in losing my shorts in some dim, smoky gambling club. In any case, horse hustling I like; it feels like amusement, an ordeal, a trip. I like that I'm outside. I like that there's a great deal of history and convention behind it. All things considered, whether I win or lose cash, regardless I have an incredible time.
Nowadays in the event that you need to take the family to an ace ball or football game, the tickets and sustenance can without much of a stretch run you $400. Admission to a course is regularly free, the base wager on every stallion race is just $2, and you can infrequently bring your own nourishment and beverages. You get the chance to spend throughout the evening and night outside, viewing lovely creatures perform at their top capacity. And this can run you not exactly a trek to the motion pictures.
Furthermore, in case you're searching for a moderate, remarkable date, where you won't come up short on things to discuss, look no further!
Sorts of Horse Racing Bets
You have two classifications of wagers to browse when you wager on the horses: straight wagers and intriguing wagers. For a learner, I prescribe staying with straight wagers. They're basic and modest. You essentially pick one stallion to come in to start with, second, or third. The base wager at most tracks for a straight wager is just $2.
Fascinating wagers permit you to make various wagers on numerous steeds in a solitary wager. Colorful wagers are by and large substantially more hard to win than straight wagers, require a propelled level of ability and information in stallion picking, and are more costly. Be that as it may, the adjustments on fascinating wagers are much more noteworthy than straight ones.
Straight Wagers
Keep in mind with a straight wager, you just wager on one steed.
WIN– You're wagering that your steed will come in the lead position. In the event that your steed completes in to begin with, you get the chance to gather.
PLACE– When you wager on your steed to "place," you're wagering that he will come in first OR second. In the event that your steed completes in first or second, you get the opportunity to gather. Payout for a put down wager is not exactly a win wager, however you do have the security of having the capacity to trade out if your steed completes in the main two spots.
SHOW– You're wagering that your steed will come in the first place, second, OR third. Since you're supporting your wagers, you have a higher possibility of winning, yet the payout for a show wager is considerably not exactly a win or place wager.
Over THE BOARD– When you wager no matter how you look at it, you're wagering your stallion to win, place, AND appear. A no matter how you look at it wager is what's known as a "combo straight wager" since it's three distinctive wagers (win, place, AND appear) in one. Since it's three wagers in one, a no matter how you look at it wager is more costly than a basic win/place/show wager. For instance, a $2 no matter how you look at it wager will cost you $6, in light of the fact that you're making three $2 wagers. In the event that your stallion comes in to start with, you get the win, place, and show cash. On the off chance that your steed completes second, you get place and show cash. In the event that your steed comes in third, you simply get the show cash. No matter how you look at it wagers aren't normally a decent wager since they're costly and have less benefit potential.
WIN/PLACE, PLACE/SHOW– Similar to a no matter how you look at it wager in that you're making various straight wagers in a solitary wager. In a win/put down wager, you're wagering your stallion to win AND place. On the off chance that he wins, you gather both the win and place cash. On the off chance that he completes second, you gather only the spot cash. In a spot/show wager, you're wagering that your stallion will place and appear. In the event that your steed completes second, you gather the spot and show cash; on the off chance that he completes third, you simply get the show cash. Since you're putting different wagers on your steed in a solitary wager, a win/place and place/show is more costly. A $2 win/put down wager will cost you $4 on the grounds that you're wagering $2 that your steed wins and $2 that your stallion places.

Colorful Wagers

Colorful wagers permit you to wager on different stallions in a solitary wager, permitting you to expand your benefit potential. Be that as it may, as I said above, they're much harder to win than straight wagers, can get costly in case you're not watchful, and require substantially more aptitude in crippling stallions. Don't hesitate to explore different avenues regarding some fascinating wagers after you've done a couple of straight wagers.
EXACTA– You're wagering on two stallions to come in first and second in a definite request. For instance, on the off chance that you put a $2 exacta on stallions 3 and 5, you can just gather if horse #3 comes in first and steed #5 comes in second. Exacta wagers are famous among gifted steed handicappers in light of the fact that the result can be extremely lucrative. You can likewise "box" your exacta wager which implies your two steeds can come in any request in the main two spots regardless you win. Boxing an exacta costs twice as much as a straight exacta wager. So a $2 box exacta on steeds 3 and 5 will cost you $4.
QUINELLA– With a quinella wager, you're wagering on two stallions to come in first and second in any request. For whatever length of time that your two stallions complete in the main two spots, you win. So in the event that you put down a $2 quinella wager on stallions 1 and 6, you can gather if horse #1 and horse #6 come in first and second in any request. You may believe, "What's the contrast between a quinella and a case exacta? Both let you win if your two stallions come in first or second." The enormous distinction is expense: a $2 quinella wager costs $2 while a $2 box exacta wager will cost you $4. Why might somebody pay more for a case exacta in the event that it's basically the same wager as a quinella? The payout for a container exacta is by and large more than a quinella wager, that is the reason.
TRIFECTA– You wager that three steeds will complete in to begin with, second, and third in a definite request. On the off chance that you put down a $2 trifecta wager on 1-5-7, you can just gather if horse #1 comes in the first place, horse #5 comes in second, and stallion #7 comes in third. You can likewise box your trifecta wager so you can win if your three steeds come in the first place, second, and third in any request. Boxing a trifecta will altogether expand the expense of your wager in light of the fact that there are numerous blends. So a $2 box trifecta wager will really cost you $12 or a $1 trifecta boxed will cost you $6.
SUPERFECTA– You wager that four stallions will complete, in the first place, second, third, and fourth in a careful request. Likewise with exactas and trifectas, you can box a superfecta at an extra cost. The base wager is regularly 10-pennies, which makes it additionally speaking to numerous individuals.
I'm not going to get into "keying" steeds with these intriguing wagers. That is a tiny bit excessively progressed for our motivations here. Fundamentally, keying stallions permits you to minimize your wager, while expanding your payout in the event that you pick your steeds right. It's something that I'd investigate once you get happy with incapacitating steeds with extraordinary wagers.
What to Say to the Teller When You Place Your Bet
Okay, so you recognize what sort of wager you're going to make. Presently it's an ideal opportunity to put down your wager.
In case you're at the circuit in individual, I prescribe just utilizing human tellers. The programmed tellers have huge lines, and you hazard being closed out of a race since some country person is making various wagers and doesn't know how to work the PC. There's additionally the danger that you'll mess up your wager since you punched the wrong catch. The human tellers are quick, exact, and benevolent.
Have your cash prepared in your grasp. Things move quick at the counter, particularly a couple of minutes before post. You would prefer not to