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Indianapolis Colts

Division: AFC South

Coaching Changes

Colts lost defensive line coach Mike Phair to the Panthers and replaced him with Brian Baker who is most recently out of Alabama. Mike Groh reunites with Frank Reich as he was hired as wide receivers coach, while Patullo moved to the role of pass game specialist to accommodate. Tyler Boyles was signed on as the assistant to the head coach to replace Parks Frazier who is moving to offensive quality control coach.

Free Agency

Players lost/cut

Name	Position	New Team
Adam Vinatieri	K	Free Agent
Clayton Geathers	S	Free Agent
Joe Haeg	T	Buccaneers
Jabaal Sheard	DE	Free Agent
Eric Ebron	TE	Steelers
Devin Funchess	WR	Green Bay
Pierre Desir	CB	New York Jets
Quincy Wilson	CB	New York Jets

Adam hasn’t officially announced his retirement, but I doubt he comes back to the NFL. He struggled throughout the year before going on IR. Geathers is a great character guy who began the season as the starting strong safety, but slowly lost reps to the impressive rookie Khari Willis. Haeg is the only guy the Colts probably wanted back as he’s a capable backup at all five slots on the line. Sheard is getting up there in age, Ebron seems to have made a business decision, and Funchess was the worst affected in the week one Claviclysm when injured his clavicle alongside Hill and Foles while being the only one to miss the rest of the season. Pierre Desir was an unexpected cut this offseason after playing well enough through the year despite playing through an injury. Quincy Wilson was traded to the Jets after a few disappointing seasons.
Players signed

Name	Position	Old Team	Length	Money
Philip Rivers	QB	Chargers	1 Yr	25 Mil
DeForest Buckner	DT	49ers	5 Yr	21 Mil/Y
Sheldon Day	DT	49ers	1 Yr	1.75 Mil
Xavier Rhodes	CB	Vikings	1 Yr	3 Mil
Trey Burton	TE	Bears	1 Yr	.91 Mil
Roosevelt Nix	RB	Steelers	1 Yr	.96 Mil
TJ Carrie	CB	Browns	1 Yr	1 Mil

Let’s start with Philip Rivers. It’s clear that Jacoby Brissett is not the guy and the Colts had to make a choice. They went with a player that both head coach Frank Reich and offensive coordinator Nick Sirianni have worked with previously, which may be quite valuable as we implement the offense during a shortened offseason. Regardless, Philip underwent a dramatic statistical drop last year. I think he’s still got juice left in him and can make a great deal of good throws if he has a decent amount of room in the pocket. If you have some time, I recommend this video by The Scouting Academy featuring former offensive coordinator turned quarterback guru Steve Fairchild.
While DeForest Buckner was not technically a free agent, he was a massive departure from the Chris Ballard modus operandi of building through the draft. The team desperately needed a 3T and they traded their first round pick for one of the best in the league. Joining him will be recent teammate Sheldon Day who will likely take over quite a few snaps at the 1T.
Xavier Rhodes was signed on almost immediately after cutting Pierre Desir. He certainly seemed physically incapable of doing what was asked of him last year. Some players have called out the scheme change as a reason that Rhodes might return to form. Personally, I don’t quite see it and think his primary value on the team might be on using his intelligence as a veteran presence in a young CB room.
Of the remaining three, Trey Burton seems like a lock at TE2 after an injury filled stint with the Bears. Roosevelt Nix is an interesting choice as I expect him to continue his heavily blocking role he played with the Steelers as well as pick up a few more rushing snaps than he did with the Steelers as we lack a true fullback. Carrie is a guy that has a chance at being the backup slot behind Kenny Moore, but I don’t think he’s secured a spot yet.

Draft

Round	Pick	Name	Position	College
2	34	Michael Pittman	WR	USC
2	41	Jonathan Taylor	RB	Wisconsin
2	85	Julian Blackmon	S	Utah
3	122	Jacob Eason	QB	QB
4	149	Danny Pinter	G	G
6	211	Robert Windsor	DT	Penn State
6	211	Isaiah Rodgers	CB	UMass
6	212	Dezmon Patmon	WR	Washington State
7	213	Jordan Glasgow	LB	Michigan

Michael Pittman Jr, WR, USC 2.34 Grade: A
This man just feels like a Colt. He’s a physical player and will immediately slot in as Philip River’s YOLO target. He’s got great size and uses it well both in positioning himself against a receiver to win the ball as well as using his frame and forcing his way down field. Even on truly contested catches, he has great hands with only 5 drops against 176 catchable targets in college. Lastly, his frame and hand usage make him a valuable blocker, which is particularly valued by Frank Reich as he plans to run the damn ball.
Jonathan Taylor, RB, Wisconsin 2.41 Grade: A-
This man is going to run the damn ball. Let’s start by mentioning his toughness, with nearly 1000 rushes through three years. The man’s body doesn’t show any sign that it will ever give up. He has enough cutting ability to dodge the occasional tackle, but excels at using his physique and contact balance to force his way through a tackle. If the defense fails to collapse on Taylor quickly, they’re at risk of him taking off. Taylor was the fastest running back at the combine running a 4.39 at 225 pounds. Going 1-on-1 with him nearing full speed is almost a futile prospect. As he finds lanes behind probably the best run blocking line in the league, he’ll be plenty of trouble. Not without flaws, he’s had a somewhat questionable history with fumbles that will likely lead to plenty of time with Tom Rathman. He also has limited experience in the passing game.
Julian Blackmon, S, Utah 3.85 Grade: C+
Perhaps I’m being a bit too harsh on Blackmon because I’m slightly addicted to watching Pittman embarrass the Utah defense in the Utah vs USC game. Perhaps it’s just because I’ve watched limited tape and safeties struggle with getting on tape for failing in coverage more often than being particularly good in coverage. Either way, as the heir apparent to Malik Hooker’s starting free safety position, Blackmon feels in a way like the opposite player. While both players had an eye for the ball coming out of college, Blackmon feels overall much more inconsistent in coverage, but he also feels like a much more solid tackler. Blackmon is also a recent convert to safety from corner, so perhaps what I’m seeing is simply growing pains especially because my reviewed games are from early in the season.
Jacob Eason, QB, Washington 4.122 Grade: C+
Jacob Eason was a surprise drop for many who considered him a second round prospect. His arm is an absolute cannon belonging right in that Josh Allen tier of pure arm strength. Of course, he’s a fourth round pick for a reason. He struggles to work through his progressions, he can’t consistently throw with touch, and there are some huge question marks regarding his work ethic. There’s a whole lot of potential, but I’m not going to call the future franchise QB spot secured for the Colts yet. For the time being, I’ll call him a fine backup for a team that didn’t otherwise have a QB rostered for 2021.
Danny Pinter, G, Ball State 5.149 Grade: B-
Danny Pinter is an undersized prospect that is moving in to play guard after most recently playing as a tackle. As a tight end convert from a small school, he still lacks a lot of the technique and strength and conditioning that you would hope for in an NFL O-line prospect. I’ve seen him be pretty weak with his hand placement and he’s let the defender get into his chest a couple times. The upside here is Pinter’s mobility. He ran the second fastest 40 of all offensive linemen at the combine at 4.91 seconds at 306 pounds and put up respectable numbers for the remaining footwork related drills. Altogether a fine pick for a team with a solid offensive line that will hopefully have time to develop their rookie.
Robert Windsor, DT, Penn State 6.193 Grade: C
Robert Windsor has a good first step and a motor that doesn’t stop. That’s all the good I can say about him. Windsor doesn’t have the strength, length, or technique to make an impression. With the potential of Denico Autry moving to the edge, it seems like they might be looking at Windsor as a backup for Buckner. If Tyquan Lewis continues to be a disappointment in the limited camp, Windsor might just sneak onto the roster by need alone, which is the only reason I can bump my grade to a C, though perhaps I’m a little too critical as I felt there were a couple of other players that are more roster worthy.
Isaiah Rodgers, CB, UMass 6.211 Grade: A
Isaiah Rodgers is an absolute burner. His pro-day speed was 4.28. Admittedly hand timed is always faster, but he’s clearly quick on tape. A bit undersized at 5’10”, he’ll likely be relegated to the back end of the cornerback depth chart until he can develop into an NFL level corner, but his immediate value seems very obvious on special teams. His speed makes him a threat at kick returns and he’ll likely get tried out as a backup punt returner. As a gunner, he will gladly hit you with everything he’s got. Check this hit.
Dezmon Patmon, WR, Washington State 6.212 Grade: B+
Patman is an intriguing prospect. He’s got a great combination of size and speed. While easily compared to second round pick Pittman because of his physical traits, Patmon lacks a lot of the polish. Worse hands, worse route running, and doesn’t quite play to his size like Pittman does. Regardless, I expect him to find production in his rookie year as Frank Reich was playing with the most injured wide receiver core in the league last year and has proven an ability to scheme depth players open consistently. Lastly, I think his size and River’s tendencies towards giant players is going to come into play fairly often near the redzone.
Jordan Glasgow, LB, Michigan 6.213 Grade: B+
Glasgow isn’t a guy I want to see playing a lot of defensive snaps in a game. He’s technically refined enough, but physically doesn’t seem to have a very high ceiling. During the Middle Tennessee State game that I reviewed for him, Michigan used him plenty to blitz the quarterback where he was plenty effective, but I won’t pretend that he was up against top tier opponents. Ultimately Glasgow is going to be a special teams specialist after a college career where he excelled at special teams, which at the end of the 6th round is all you can ask for.

Roster

QB: 3 Rivers, Brissett, Eason
Things are pretty straightforward for the Colts this year. There aren’t any preseason games, so nobody can retire after one. Rivers is the starter, hoping to prove that his career isn’t over after a down year last year. Brissett is a capable enough backup. Eason is the team’s insurance for 2021 when no other quarterbacks are on the roster and will hopefully not have to start during what is sure to be an odd season. First man out is $wag Kelly, who seems mainly to hold a roster spot as a favor between Frank Reich and his old friend Jim Kelly.
RB: 4 Mack, Taylor, Hines, Nix
For a while at least, Mack gets to hold the starting job. It’s certainly a competition with Taylor’s level of talent and I expect a pretty even split over the course of the year. Despite some competition at the position, Hines may have his best year considering River’s appreciation for receiving backs. Rosie Nix is the new fullback from the Steelers who might get a few touches here and there, but exists primarily for his blocking ability. First man out is Jordan Wilkins. This is a contentious cut for Colts fans. Wilkins has an unusual level of highlight type plays that lend to his 6.0 yards per attempt over 51 carries last year. Alas, roster spots are at a premium and running backs are not.
WR: 6 Hilton, Pittman, Pascal, Campbell, Marcus Johnson, Dezmon Patmon
Hilton’s the obvious choice. After two years struggling with health issues, Colts fans are hoping their WR1 remains healthy for the whole year. Pittman comes in as a fairly polished candidate from the top of the second round in a stacked receiver class. He’ll hold down the X receiver immediately. Zach Pascal was a pleasant surprise for Colts fans last year. With a list of injuries above him, Pascal did his best as WR1 for several games last year and led the Colts in receiving yards. As a WR3, he’ll get less focus and still be fairly valuable. Campbell has shown plenty of big play ability, what he needs to show is durability. He suffered four separate injuries last year including training camp. Hopefully, it was just a fluke and he can show off more of what he can do with a ball in his hands. Marcus Johnson is a fan favorite after his Tampa Bay showing last year. After starting the season on injured reserve, he returned to the practice squad and eventually made the roster last year. Colts fans are hoping his 16.3 yards per reception last year and 17 yards per reception in 2018 weren’t flukes and can be duplicated on more snaps Rivers. Dezmon Patman comes in as a somewhat unrefined option. I’ve already mentioned his physical traits. With a little bit of help from Reich’s scheming, I think he’ll find a handful of receptions this year, particularly towards the red zone. The first man out here is Daurice Fountain. After moving to the active roster in mid-2018, Reece was a training camp hit in 2019 until suffering an ankle injury in camp. While he might compete for the position, I haven’t seen enough from him in the first two years to give him right of way over Johnson and the rookie Patmon.
TE: 3 Jack Doyle, Trey Burton, Mo Alie-Cox
Jack Doyle has been a reliable pass catcher and mauling run blocker for years. He’s solid in his position as a starter. Trey Burton reunites with Frank Reich and is only two years removed from having a 569 yard season with the Bears. After struggling with injuries last season, Burton is hoping for a return to form this season. Mo Alie-Cox was a bit disappointing as many were expecting more receiving stats, but he’s still a talented run blocker with plenty of potential for next year. With Rivers having an appreciation for big bodied receivers, perhaps the 6’5.5” receiver with a 7’1” wingspan will find a few jump balls his way.
OL: 9 Castonzo, Nelson, Kelly, Glowinski, Smith, Clark, Patterson, Pinter, O’Donnell
The Colts are lucky enough to return all 5 starting offensive linemen this year. Castonzo played some of the best football of his career last year and signed on for two more years after considering retirement for a while. Quenton Nelson is coming off his second First Team All-Pro year. Kelly is a great Center coming off a fairly healthy season and going into a contract year. Glowinski is the weak point of the line, but that’s not so much an insult to Glowinski as it is a credit to the rest of the team. He’s still a very serviceable guard. Braden Smith is surpassing my wildest expectations from the day he was drafted as a guard. With early 2018 injuries to the tackle position, Smith made the shift and has been great at the position. Beyond the starting five, things get a bit more questionable with a significant loss of depth this past year. Clark returns on a one year contract and will be taking over the swing tackle position now that Joe Haeg has left. Patterson suffered a torn ACL in his rookie year, but is the only center on the roster behind Kelly and not including Nelson who only holds the position so he can keep 56. Pinter seems like the obvious option as a backup guard. O’Donnell is a Canadian football prospect that I assume the Colts found at the East-West Shrine bowl where he played fairly well. The Colts need depth at tackle and I can see O’Donnell doing that. First man out is Eldrenkamp as a backup guard.
DL: 9 Autry, Buckner, Day, Houston, Turay, Stewart, Muhammad, Lewis, Banogu
Autry has largely played DT the past couple years and done a fine job of it. With Sheard leaving in free agency, I currently have Autry slotted as the guy to move outside and take over the job. Buckner is our 3T we’ve been looking for. I hopefully don’t need to say anything else. Sheldon Day is competing with Grover Stewart for the 1T spot. I’ve got Day listed as my starter, but for a position that will see plenty of rotation I don’t think it matters either way. Turay is the “if only” story of 2019. Houston had a surprisingly healthy year and racked up 11 sacks, tied for second most in his career. Turay showed a ton of talent in his few snaps prior to injury in 2019. Over the five weeks he played, he ranked second in PFF’s pass-rushing grade and pass-rush rate with a 22.9% pressure rate. If he can build on these past two years, Turay may be a monster. Tyquan Lewis is the disappointment of Chris Ballard’s 2018 draft. He’s struggled with a couple of injuries and he’s had a few healthy scratches that I haven’t heard anything verifiable to explain away. Alas, I’m leaving him in the lineup as a guy who is flexible enough to back up Buckner, but also play outside as need be. Banogu is another guy that has shown flashes here and there. First one out is Robert Windsor, who might take that 3T spot if Lewis doesn’t shape up in camp.
LB: 6 Leonard, Walker, Okereke, Speed, Adams, Glasgow
13 games, 5 Int, 2 FF, 7 PD, 5 Sacks, 121 Tackles. Darius Leonard put up some impressive stats last year and he’s aiming for the top. If he can pull off a 16 game season with similar stats, he’ll have an argument for DPOY. Walker is a smart player, if a little limited athletically and in coverage skills. I’ll keep him as the starter, but many fans are arguing for Okereke to take over the role. Okereke was PFF’s top ranked rookie linebacker last year, particularly for his athleticism and strength in coverage. EJ Speed had some limited play last year while Leonard was dealing with a concussion. He played fine, but has yet to show anything to get excited about. Glasgow takes the final spot primarily for special teams value. Adams has played a handful of snaps here and there, but is primarily going to be a special teams player. First man out is Zaire Franklin was only getting special teams snaps anyways.
CB: 5 Rhodes, Moore, Ya-Sin, Tell, Rodgers
Rhodes is hoping for a resurgence in a different scheme. I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt and give the former first team all-pro the nod as CB1. Kenny Moore II has been a great slot corner for the Colts these past couple years. He struggled with injuries for a long while to end out the year last year, but I fully expect him to continue his efforts to make himself a household name this year. Rock Ya-Sin was our rookie pick last year near the top of the 2nd round. He had some common rookie CB mistakes, but showed enough talent and growth to believe he has a high chance of taking over the CB1 role. Marvell Tell is an incredible physical specimen that the Colts took last year with the expectations of moving him to CB from Safety. With injuries to the cornerback position, he got a few more snaps than we were hoping, but he flashed a great deal. If Xavier Rhodes’s physical decline last season continues, I wouldn’t be completely surprised to see Tell starting over a healthy Rhodes. Rodgers is still very developmental as a corner, but holds plenty of value for special teams. First man out is TJ Carrie who would have been a fine slot backup in case Kenny Moore went down.
S: 5 Hooker, Willis, Odum, Blackmon, Milligan
Malik Hooker is entering the last year of his contract with the Colts after having his fifth year option declined. Hooker lit up the stat sheet his rookie year, but ever since the scheme change, has struggled to prove he was worth the draft position. With an improved pass rush this year, perhaps his sixth sense in finding the ball will come into play more often. Khari Willis was a pleasant surprise last year. It was clear the Colts liked him when Ballard traded draft capital to move up, but I wouldn’t have expected him to so clearly take over the starting strong safety position. On top of that, Willis played reasonably at free safety during Hooker’s injury last year. Odum is a solid backup who can play at both strong and free safety. Julian Blackmon is the new rookie who I assume is intended to be Hooker’s successor next year. For the time being he’s coming back from an ACL injury and may not be available until midyear, but as the successor to the starting position, I think it’s important to at least give him a spot for now. Milligan is a versatile player. He’s really a free safety, but played a bit of slot corner last year when Kenny Moore went down.
ST: 3 Blankenship, Sanchez, Rhodes
Hot Rod is my guess to be kicker. While McLaughlin played well enough for the Colts. Even with a 100% hit rate on extra points, there’s plenty of room for more consistency as he ranked 22nd overall in field goal percentage last year. It’ll be a tough contest in camp, but if I’m calling my shot with Hot Rod. Sanchez hasn’t played his best football these past couple years. I’m hoping someone else takes over kickoffs and Sanchez can focus entirely on punting in hopes of returning to form.

Position Group Strengths and Weaknesses

QB
The Colts QB room seems solid. I’m expecting Rivers to return to his typical self that still throws a decent amount of interceptions. Regardless, a quarterback that doesn’t constantly hold onto the ball for 3+ seconds playing behind this line is going to have plenty of opportunities to make great plays. For this year of all years, it seems like the value in having backup quarterbacks is going to be at an all time high and I don’t feel so bad about what the Colts have. I’ll call it a fairly average group until Rivers can prove his career isn’t over.
Backfield
The Colts have a group of good backs, but lack an elite option particularly when considering that none have proved themselves a threat in both the rushing and passing game at the moment. As a group, I’ll call it borderline top 10 in large part because any one of these players could get injured without it feeling season ruining as may be true with a few of the teams with top running backs.
OL
I have no complaints about the starting offensive line, the huge question mark is about the depth. The Colts were lucky enough to start the same five men all season last year, but one injury to Anthony Castonzo and Colts fans will have flashbacks to the five game stretch he missed in 2018 where Luck suffered 10 of the 18 total sacks on the season. Alas, many teams struggle with depth and I hope I don’t have to argue too much about this being one of the best groups in the NFL.
Pass catchers
By Adjusted Games Lost, the Colts had the single most injured wide receiver room last year. The single biggest thing that needs to be proven is that we can stay healthy across the board. If they stay healthy, the Colts are a mid tier group, but under the assumption that TY’s health issues these past two years continue, I’m forced to assume they’re a bottom third group until we can trust someone to be a true WR1 in most games.
DL
The Colts starting lineup seems pretty strong, but for a position group that we want to rotate with depth players on, I’ve gotta question what kind of play we’re going to see out of guys like Tyquan Lewis and Ben Banogu. As such, I’ll call this group middling overall.
LB
It’s just a solid group all around. The fact that we can’t decide between Okereke and Walker as starters is primarily a question of which is better, not which is worse. Behind them is plenty of serviceable depth that holds an important role in special teams.
Secondary
This is the one group with question marks at basically every spot. Can Rhodes return to All-Pro form? Was the apparent growth for Ya-Sin real and can it continue? Can Moore stay healthy? Can Tell develop into a starting safety? Can Hooker stay healthy after missing significant time these past two years and can he prove he’s worth his draft position?
Special Teams
What just one year ago felt like a solid group for kicking and punting, now feels a bit questionable. I don’t want to get so down about Rigo’s down year as it was still overall decent. With the new search for a kicker, I can’t complain about either of the current options and I don’t believe either will get nearly the leash that Adam Vinatieri got last year, so I’d say the floor there is much higher. The returning seems like it’s best in years after Hines has impressed and our return team overall just seems to be getting stronger. With the addition of Isaiah Rodgers, this may be a group to beat.

Schedule Predictions

Week 1: @ Jaguars (W)
Ah yes, the Jaguars. An eternal question mark for the Colts. Generally believed to be one of the worst rosters in the league, I’d have to agree. There are plenty of question marks on their defense that they’re hoping will be filled in by rookies. I would expect them to have growing pains even without a shortened offseason. Week one, this seems to weigh heavily with the Colts who’ve added strong veteran talent in Rivers and Buckner.
Week 2: vs Vikings (W)
Despite having one of my favorite drafts of the year, the Vikings have many of the same struggles as the Jaguars. First, we must accept that moving from Diggs to Jefferson isn’t likely to be a smooth transition in Jefferson’s first year. Just as notably they’re losing their two corners that put up the most snaps for them in 2019. While neither of their 2018 corners were playing at their best, it currently looks like they’ll have two rookie starting corners with Gladney and Dantzler and I think all of reddit knows to expect cornerbacks to have rookie year struggles.
Week 3: vs Jets (W)
Can TY play corner? The Jets draft is another one of my favorites, but they’re still not quite there as a whole. Despite my love for Becton, I don’t think their list of offensive line changes have turned into a complete group. On top of that, I’m still not quite happy with their weapons. Bell looks like he’s still got mileage left in him if only he had a better line. Their tight end group is highly dubious, and their wide receiver group has really better hope Mims can actually play like a WR1. I think it’ll be a better game than some might assume based on a lot of opinions I hear on the Jets, but I’ve got the Colts with the edge.
Week 4: @ Bears (W)
As a fan of watching line play, this will be a game to remember. The Bears d-line is arguably the best run defense in the league and they’re not bad against the pass either particularly when backed by a good secondary. Unfortunately for the Bears, I’m expecting their weaker offensive line to struggle vs the Colts defensive line more than the opposite.
Week 5: @ Browns (L)
Ah, yes. I get to another one of my favorite offseasons. Just about everything the Browns did seemed like a good move. On paper, the Browns offense is scary as hell and I just don’t have any arguments for why they would be worse. Jack Conklin and Jedrick Wills are going to be great additions to fix that line, then you go and add Hooper as if you didn’t have enough weapons. With even half-decent coaching this team can be dangerous and I can’t trust the Colts secondary to handle every weapon.
Week 6: vs Bengals (W)
After five straight years of the Bengals losing their first round pick for a significant amount of time due to injury, maybe this year will be an exception. With the return of Jonah Williams, perhaps that line can actually have a half decent year, but I’m not going to bet the house on it. For the time being, the Bengals are still working on their rebuild.
Week 7: Bye
Week 8: @ Lions (W)
What little I watched of the Lions last year seemed like a decent quality team. As rarely as I like to bet on rookie corners, Okudah is as complete as any college corner I’ve seen. I’m not ready to call them a strong team, but they don’t seem weak by any means. A return from Stafford could make the NFC North one of the most internally competitive divisions to watch. Regardless, I feel like the Colts have a somewhat stronger roster.
Week 9: Ravens (L)
If only I could go to this game in person. I’d love to see how the Colts defense matches up against that Ravens offense in person. Top to bottom the Ravens have one of the strongest rosters in the league, so they get the strong edge.
Week 10: @ Titans (L)
I hate Thursday night games. The home team has a huge statistical advantage. Going into Tennessee tired after a tough Ravens game certainly isn’t going to do the Colts any favors when they’ve gotta try to tackle Derrick Henry.
Week 11: vs Packers (L)
This is just a long stretch of teams asking a lot of the Colts physically. Stopping the run week after week with the Ravens then Derrick Henry then Jones/Dillon is just going to be physically brutal. Luckily, the Colts are coming off a ten day bye at home, but the Packers are just an overall solid team all around and I think they’ll still be very competitive at every phase of the game.
Week 12: vs Titans (W)
I don’t think the Colts will be happy with their string of losses. I think they’re coming back hungry and trying to prove themselves against a divisional opponent at home.
Week 13: @Texans (W)
After the Texans split games in 2018 and 2019, the Colts are going to get the first win of 2020. For two closely matched teams in 2019, the Colts have lost nobody of any particular importance and purely added more talent, while the Texans sold off Hopkins in hopes that Cooks and Cobb will somehow elevate their offense. It’s a risky bet.
Week 14: @ Raiders (W)
Last year’s Raiders led the Colts by 7 points with just over 2 minutes to go in the half prior to Brissett’s pick 6. Looking at things from a clean slate, I’d fully expect the return of previously inactive Hilton, Leonard, and Hooker to cover the gap between the two teams and I have the Colts winning next year’s game.
Week 15: vs Texans (L)
Let’s not underrate Deshaun Watson. Having watched Luck carry a questionable offense for years, I think Deshaun’s got enough talent to pull some wins out of his ass. I’m certainly not so low on the Texans roster to believe Deshaun can’t push it to a win.
Week 16: @ Steelers (W)
Last year’s game was a 2 point Steelers victory after an Adam Vinatieri kick went awry with about a minute left in the game. So, they question is, were the Colts offseason improvements worth 2 points on the Steelers? Both of these teams are expected to improve greatly with the return and hiring of 2004 quarterback legends, but I’d have to give a slight nod to Big Ben as the greater improvement from Mason Rudolph vs Rivers replacing Brissett/Hoyer. For remaining Inactives, I’d have to credit the loss of TY Hilton as a more significant factor than that of James Connor. What I think finally takes the Colts over the top is the combination of their first round pick for DeForest Buckner as well as a stronger pair of second round additions with Pittman and Taylor vs Claypool.
Week 17: vs Jaguars (L)
If you don’t like the look of that L next to the Jaguars game, you don’t like AFC South football. The Jags always seem like a much better team about once a year. I’m looking at you 2018 Jags. At 10-5, I think the Colts have a good chance at being guaranteed a playoff berth and the Jags probably just want to prove themselves more.

Schemes

Offense
If you’re looking at last year’s team as a model for this year’s offense, you’re probably missing something. To quote Ozzurip from last year’s review, “The point is that there isn’t a specific scheme.” Frank Reich isn’t beholden to doing one thing every week. He wants to find every mismatch and exploit it to the best of his ability by using a diverse set of tools. Jacoby’s limitations as a player saw the passing offense get unnecessarily flat last year. Philip Rivers is the bet to run Frank Reich’s offense properly.
This starts by looking at your traditional West Coast offense utilizing a lot of nickel and dime throws in order to set up a rush. Of course with the Colt’s power running and more modern RPO usage, the run game is setting up this short passing game just as well. When teams are playing too close to the box, Frank will call up a play to push the ball deep where his new quarterback is more than willing to follow through. Ultimately, Reich will push whatever works. If the Colts are running over the opposing team, he won’t be afraid to lean into the run, but I personally believe the Colts will want to be a pass first offense once again. This is admittedly not a commonly agreed upon point among Colts fans. Feel free to take my opinion with a grain of salt.
The Colts have a diverse set of weapons that allow them to play just about any game they want to and will gladly lean on certain weapons to target specific weaknesses in the opponent’s defense. You want big guys? Let’s throw Doyle, Alie-Cox, Pittman, and Patmon out there. This not only puts out a selection of big bodies to have to defend against, but also a good list of run blockers for whichever running back they’re throwing out. Want speed? Hilton, Campbell, and Hines are each capable of stretching the field vertically. The last note I want to add would be a likely increase in 22 personnel. Just toss out Patmon and mix and match some running backs. Reich has mentioned seeing Mack and Taylor on the field at the same time, but I would fully expect plenty of plays with Nix holding a lead blocker role or even a more Tom Rathman-esque fullback that pulls in passes in the short game.
Defense
The Colts defense is a pretty simple scheme based on a 4-3 Tampa 2 defense. Despite some excitement after the Chiefs game where the Colts played man on 73.3% of snaps, expect for the Colts to play a vast majority of their snaps in zone coverage. Playing man for that one game was likely just taking advantage of a weakened receiving core than it was a proof of the Colts sudden willingness to move to a different scheme.
The Colts are heavily reliant on the front four to generate pressure and do so by rotating through 8-9 defensive linemen with the goal of keeping players fresh. The Colts defensive lineman with the highest snap count last year was Justin Houston who only played in 65.18% of snaps. Perhaps bringing in Buckner will cause the team to add a bit more consistency after Buckner’s 78.72% snaps on the 49ers last season. This focus on the front 4 is accentuated by the 6th lowest blitz rate in the league in 2019.
Part of what helps the defensive line be effective is their ability to focus on the passer while the linebackers work heavily to stop the run. The Colts run a lot of a concept called patterns where the play side linebacker’s goal is to control the offensive line and push the run outside where the other linebacker is meant to be athletic enough to cross the line and stop the run. For a more detailed look at the Colts implementation of this concept, read Zach Hicks’s writeup on this
Behind the linebacker group is typically a Cover-2 whose primary goal is to cover the deep zones and prevent any big plays. The idea is that forcing a team to dink and dunk down the field forces the offense to be successful on more plays to reach the end zone. More plays means more opportunities on each drive for interceptions, sacks, forced fumbles, and simply missed passes in order to set the offense back. The Colts were ultimately tied for 10th in the league at 13.1 percent of drives ending in a turnover.
Shoutouts to those who helped:
Ozzurip
Link to hub

IT'S (almost) TIIIME!!! UFC 167 – St-Pierre vs. Hendricks - The UFC's 20th anniversary event - is Saturday. Here you will find a basic primer for new and casual fans, as well as collection of links and useful information for the fans of any degree. Be sure to check the comment section to find the post continuation for "How to Watch" information, etc.
Be sure to check out the Official /mma betting thread and join the /mmatournament linked within for a chance to win some original MMA artwork.
I wanted to give one more shoutout to the /boxing mods/contributors for the "viewer guide" inspiration for those that didn't see it in my 166 post. They regularly do a great job with these over in that subreddit and provided a great foundation to work off of.
Event Date: Saturday, Nov 16, 2013
Location: MGM Grand Garden Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada

FIGHT CARD

All odds taken from Bovada at time of post. Visit the link to view fractional (UK) and decimal (AU) odds, or see the /mma betting thread linked above.

Format:

Weightclass(lbs): Fighter (US odds) vs. Fighter (US odds)
^.
PPV Main Card (10:00 pm ET / 7:00 pm PT) - See “How to Watch” for your local time.

• Welterweight Championship (170): Georges St-Pierre (-265) vs. Johny Hendricks (+205)
  
• Light Heavyweight (205): Rashad Evans (-190) vs. Chael Sonnen (+155)
  
• Welterweight (170): Rory MacDonald (-375) vs. Robbie Lawler (+285)
  
• Welterweight (170): Josh Koscheck (-100) vs. Tyron Woodley (-130)
  
• Flyweight (125): Tim Elliot (-160) vs. Ali Bagautinov (+130)
  

FOX Sports 1 Prelims (8:00 pm ET / 5:00 pm PT)

• Lightweight (155): Donald Cerrone (-120) vs. Evan Dunham (-110)
  
• Middleweight (185): Ed Herman (+170) vs. Thales Leites (-210)
  
• Welterweight (170): Brian Ebersole (+170) vs. Rick Story (-220)
  
• Bantamweight (135): Erik Perez (-375) vs. Edwin Figueroa (+285)
  

Facebook/Online Prelims (6:30 pm ET / 3:30 pm PT)

• Welterweight (170): Jason High (-300) vs. Anthony Lapsley (+230)
  
• Bantamweight (135): Will Campuzano (+325) vs. Sergio Pettis (-450)
  
• Light Heavyweight (205): Gian Villente (-350) vs. Cody Donovan (+265)
  

*Note: Online prelims may start 15 minutes later. I put the earlier time from UFC.com to be safe.

MAIN EVENT

Georges “Rush” St-Pierre (Champion) vs. Johny “Bigg Rigg” Hendricks (Challenger)
"Tale of the Tape" Fighter stats via UFC event page
As the UFC’s top PPV draw and one of MMA’s pound-for-pound best fighters in the world, Canadian Georges St-Pierre defends his title for the first time in the US since March, 2010. A win in this fight would secure GSP the uncontested record for most UFC title victories - a record he currently shares with Anderson Silva at 11. A win would additionally give him 19 overall victories in The Octagon, breaking his current tie with Matt Hughes for the most in UFC history.
GSP is best known for his athleticism, dominant wrestling, and technical fighting. Despite having a Kyokushin Karate base that he trained in since childhood and having never competed in the upper levels of amateur wrestling, he currently holds the UFC record for most successful takedowns (84) and highest takedown accuracy (75%). Conversely, he also holds the UFC record for most strikes landed (2,398) and most significant strikes landed (1,153), having largely achieved this figure via his active top control after forcing the fight to the ground.
When prompted to disclose anything special he was doing in preparation for this fight, GSP stated that he did in fact have “something special” he was working on, which he described as “something I should have done a long time ago”, and “something I lacked a lot”. When asked about it in a follow-up interview, St-Pierre was naturally unwilling to divulge any more details about what the reporter at that time called GSP’s “secret weapon”; an expression the fans quickly adopted as well. St-Pierre says publically that he believes Hendricks is the greatest challenge of his career, but is confident that his obsession with Hendricks as an opponent and his own preparation will drive him to victory.
In October, GSP’s head trainer Firas Zahabi was quoted as saying this could be GSP’s last fight. Zahabi quickly dismissed that notion, saying his words were misunderstood and taken out of context. GSP last defended his title in March, where he won a one-sided unanimous decision over welterweight contender Nick Diaz.
Johny Hendricks enters this fight as the consensus number 1 contender in the UFC’s welterweight division. As an amateur wrestler he was a 2-time NCAA division I champion and 4-time All-American athlete. Since making his professional MMA debut in 2007, Hendricks has amassed a 15-1 record, with his sole loss coming at the hands of Rick Story in a 2010 unanimous decision. Since then he was won 6 straight fights in the welterweight division, made up of 3 decisions and 3 first round knockouts.
Designated a power-punch, southpaw Hendricks is known for his heavy left hand which he used to secure all 3 of his recent KO victories mentioned above. However, Hendricks believes he has nearly as much power in his right hand as well, and went on record saying the goal was to use that hand to finish this fight with St-Pierre.
Hendricks is coming off of a unanimous decision victory over former UFC welterweight interim champion Carlos Condit in March of this year. In that 3-round fight, all 3 judges scored the first two rounds in his favor, and the 3rd for Condit. Hendricks struggled in the third due to a hand injury and fading gas tank. This will be his first 5-round fight, leading many to question if his cardio will be enough to carry him into the later rounds if necessary, especially against a high-action fighter like GSP. Hendricks affirms that he has adapted his training for a 5-round contest, and that he sets a pace according to scheduled fight length.
There have be no publically disclosed injuries leading up to this event, with the odd exception of Hendricks suffering second-degree burns on his back from film lighting used on the set of a UFC 167 commercial. The burns kept him from training for a day or two in late October.
Drug Testing:
How much time ya got? Below is the barebones rundown of a complex series of events which has been a big talking point over the last few months. You may look here if you are interested in a slightly longer recap of this saga, with links to additional details.
St-Pierre invited Hendricks to join him in enhanced PED testing administered by a voluntary organization in the months leading up to this event, and Hendricks accepted without hesitation. Hendricks’ camp then took issue with the organization St-Pierre chose for the testing, citing what they interpreted as issues regarding impartiality due to a perceived relationship between Georges and the organization.
Hendricks then offered to undergo the testing with St-Pierre through an elective athletic commission program, which uses the same standards for testing as the aforementioned organization. A series of miscommunications followed where statements from St-Pierre’s representatives were interpreted as a refusal to participate in testing through the commission, and all cooperative efforts between the opponents broke down entirely.
St-Pierre’s management clarified that they were willing to undergo enhanced testing through both the voluntary organization as well as the commission, and have followed through by doing so leading up to this event. It is unclear whether St-Pierre has actually undergone the testing from the commission, but we last heard that he applied for it and was awaiting the paperwork in late September. Hendricks on the other hand ceased all efforts to pursue any enhanced testing via either channel.
Referee:
Experienced ref Mario Yamasaki draws the main event. /mma opinions varied with the announcement of this assignment, with the most prevalent concerns referencing his inconsistency, and occasional quick stand-ups – something that was reaffirmed when he restarted fighters during an event last weekend while one was working toward a submission on the ground. Others were fine with the selection and didn’t consider Yamasaki to have a significant track record of mistakes. The “inconsistency” perspective stems from a few questionable stoppages, both early and late, as well as a lack of consistent cage presence, where his authority wavers from a lack of command to overly interfering. Hopefully with the main event assignment it is not a stretch to expect that the veteran ref will be more cognizant of the action.
Judges:
Sal D'Amato, Glenn Trowbridge and Tony Weeks draw the main event.

• Sal D’Amato: Decision History
• Glenn Trowbridge: Decision History
• Tony Weeks: Decision History

Media:

• UFC 167 – St-Pierre vs. Hendricks “Primetime” television series: Episode 1 | Episode 2 | Episode 3
  
• “Countdown” video segment
  
• Prefight Interviews (Wednesday – Ariel Helwani): GSP | Hendricks
  
• Media Scrum Videos (Wednesday): GSP | Hendricks
  
• Free fight – GSP vs. Condit
  
• Free fight – Hendricks vs. Brenneman
  
• GSP ufccareers Post (Designated reddit post with video links to each UFC fight when available)
  

Headlines:

• GSP working on “something special” (Video – Relevant portion at 1:50)
  
• “Firas Zahabi: Georges St-Pierre is not planning on retirement any time soon”
  
• “Georges St-Pierre: I know I'm going to get hit by Johny Hendricks, and I'm not scared of it”
  
• “Reclusive Georges St-Pierre 'crazy' and 'obsessed' ahead of Johny Hendricks fight”
  
• “Johny Hendricks’ goal is to KO Georges St-Pierre with his right hand”
  
• “Johny Hendricks can't explain it, but he's different than St-Pierre's past eight victims”
  
• “Johny Hendricks suffered second-degree burn on his back while filming UFC 167 commercial”
  

Technical Breakdowns:

• GSP – “Complete fighter breakdown”
  
• Hendricks – “Complete fighter breakdown”
  
• “Jack Slack: An Almost-Complete Georges St-Pierre Striking Primer”
  
• “GSP: Killing the King” (Jack Slack – Nov. 2012)
  
• Gracie Breakdown – “GSP Success Secrets Revealed” (Long video with in-depth analysis and demonstrations of the intricacies of GSP’s ground game; following UFC 154 fight)
  
• Gracie Breakdown – “GSP Success Secrets Part 2” (Same as above; following his UFC 158 fight)
  

CONTINUED IN COMMENTS…

Philadelphia Eagles (5-7) vs Washington Redskins (6-5-1)
The Philadelphia Eagles return to Lincoln Financial Field to take on the Washington Redskins in their first NFC East home game of the 2016 campaign. The Eagles fell to the Redskins, 20-27, in their first match-up of the season in Week 6 at FedEx Field

General Information
Posting Rules and Guidelines
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Click here to register for Slack.
Get your Score Predictions in: Click Here
New to the Eagles? Take a look at our New Fan Page!

Date
Sunday, December 11th, 2016

Game Time	Game Location
1:00 PM - Eastern	Lincoln Financial Field
12:00 PM - Central	1020 Pattison Ave
11:00 AM - Mountain	Philadelphia, PA 19148
10:00 AM - Pacific	Wikipedia - Map

Weather Forecast - Subject to Change
Stadium Type: Open Air
Temperature: 40°F
Feels Like: 35°F
Forecast: Cloudy
Humidity: 44%
Chance of Precipitation: 18%
Cloud Coverage: 60%
Wind: NE 8 MPH

Betting Odds
Oddsshark Information
Favorite/Opening Line: Redskins by -1
OveUnder: 47.5
Record VS. Spread: Philadelphia 5-7, Washington 8-4

Where to Watch on TV
- will broadcast Sunday’s game to national audience. Kevin Burkhardt will handle the play-by-play duties and former NFL safety John Lynch will provide analysis. Pam Oliver will report from the sidelines.
TV Map - Week 14 TV Coverage Map

Internet Streams
FOX Sports Go - Participating Cable Provider Required
NFL Streams - Look here 30 minutes before the game for Streams

Radio Streams
Eagles App: Apple App Store or Google Play Store

Listen to Merrill Reese and Mike Quick
Calling the game on 94WIP and the Eagles Radio Network will be Merrill Reese, the NFL’s longest-tenured play-by-play announcer (40th season). Joining Reese in the radio booth will be former Eagles All-Pro wide receiver Mike Quick, while Howard Eskin will report from the sidelines.

Location	Station	Frequency
Philadelphia, PA	WIP-FM	94.1 FM and 610 AM
Allentown, PA	WCTO-FM	96.1 FM
Atlantic City/South Jersey	WENJ-FM	97.3 FM
Levittown, PA	WBCB-AM	1490 AM
Northumberland, PA	WEGH-FM	107.3 FM
Pottsville, PA	WPPA-AM	1360 AM
Reading, PA	WEEU-AM	830 AM
Salisbury/Ocean City, MD	WAFL-FM	97.7 FM
Wilkes-Barre/Scranton, PA	WEJL-FM	96.1 FM
Salisbury/Ocean City, MD	WAFL-FM	97.7 FM
Salisbury/Ocean City, MD	WEJL-AM	630 AM
Salisbury/Ocean City, MD	WBAX-AM	1240 AM
Williamsport, PA	WBZD-FM	93.3 FM
Wilmington, DE	WDEL-FM/AM	101.7 FM
York/LancasteHarrisburg, PA	WSOX-FM	96.1 FM

Philadelphia Spanish Radio
Rickie Ricardo, Macu Berral and Gus Salazar will handle the broadcast in Spanish on Mega 105.7 FM in Philadelphia and the Eagles Spanish Radio Network.

Location	Station	Frequency
Philadelphia, PA	LA MEGA	105.7 FM
Allentown, PA	WSAN	1470 AM
Atlantic City, NJ	WIBG	1020 AM; 101.3 FM

Redskins Radio
ESPN 980 - Larry Michael (play-by-play), Sonny Jurgensen (color), Chris Cooley (analysis), Rick “Doc” Walker (sidelines)

National Radio
Compass Media Networks - Chris Carrino (play-by-play) and Brian Baldinger (color)

Satellite Radio

Station	Eagles Channel	Redskins Channel
Sirius Radio	SIRI 145 (Internet 824)	SIRI 134 (Internet 831)
XM Radio	XM 229 (Internet 824)	XM Internet 831
Sirius XM Radio	SXM 229 (Internet 824)	SXM 381 (Internet 831)

Eagles Social Media	Redskins Social Media
Website	Website
Facebook	Facebook
Twitter	Twitter
Instagram	Instagram
Snapchat: Eagles	Snapchat: RedskinsSnap

NFC East Standings

Team	W	L	T	Pct	PF	PA	Net Pts	TD	Home	Road	Div	Pct	Conf	Pct	Non-Conf	Streak	Last 5
Cowboys	11	1	0	0.917	333	228	105	39	5-1	6-0	3-1	0.750	7-1	0.875	4-0	11W	5-0
Giants	8	4	0	.667	245	237	8	30	5-1	3-3	2-1	.667	5-3	.625	3-1	1L	4-1
Redskins	6	5	1	0.542	303	295	8	32	4-2	2-3-1	2-2	0.500	4-4	0.500	2-1-1	2L	2-2-1
Eagles	5	7	0	.417	268	245	23	27	4-1	1-6	0-3	0.000	3-6	.333	2-1	3L	1-4

Series Information
The Washington Redskins lead the Philadelphia Eagles (85-74-6)
Series History
Head to Head Box Scores
Points Leader
The Philadelphia Eagles lead the Washington Redskins (3427-3275)
Coaches Record
Doug Pederson: 0-1 against the Redskins
Jay Gruden: 4-1 against Eagles
Coaches Head to Head
Doug Pederson vs Jay Gruden: Gruden leads Pederson: 1-0
Quarterback Record
Carson Wentz: Against Redskins: 0-1
Kirk Cousins: Against Eagles: 1-1
Quarterbacks Head to Head
Carson Wentz vs Kirk Cousins: Cousins leads Wentz: 1-0
Records per Stadium
Record @ Lincoln Financial Field: Eagles lead the Redskins: 7-5
Record @ FedEx Field: Eagles lead the Redskins: 11-6

Rankings and Last Meeting Information
AP Pro 32 Ranking
Eagles No. 24 - Redskins No. 13
Last Week
Eagles: L 27-13 vs Bengals
Redskins: L 31-23 at Cardinals
First Meeting
October 21st, 1934 - Boston Redskins: 6 - Philadelphia Eagles: 0 at Fenway Park
Last Meeting
October 16, 2016
Eagles 20 - Redskins 27
Washington RB Matt Jones rushes for 135 yards & TD. Redskins LB Ryan Kerrigan has 2.5 sacks.
Click here to view the Video Recap
Click here to view the Stats Recap
Last Meeting at Site
December 26, 2015
Eagles 24 - Redskins 38
Washington QB Kirk Cousins passes for 365 yards & 4 TDs for 120.3 rating. Redskins CB DeAngelo Hall has 17-yard FR-TD.
Click here to view the Video Recap
Click here to view the Stats Recap

Last 10 Meetings

Date	Winner	Loser	Score
10/16/2016	Redskins	Eagles	27-20
12/26/2015	Redskins	Eagles	38-24
10/04/2015	Redskins	Eagles	23-20
12/20/2014	Redskins	Eagles	27-24
09/21/2014	Eagles	Redskins	37-34
11/17/2013	Eagles	Redskins	24-16
09/09/2013	Eagles	Redskins	33-27
12/23/2012	Redskins	Eagles	27-20
11/18/2012	Redskins	Eagles	31-6
01/01/2012	Eagles	Redskins	34-10

Injury Reports	Depth Charts
Eagles	Eagles
Redskins	Redskins

2016 Weekly Matchup
Week 14 - Iron Rank Matchup
Week 14 - "Expert" Picks
Week 14 - Sporting Charts Matchup

2016 Team Stats
Eagles Season Stats
Redskins Season Stats

2016 Stats (Starters/Leaders)

Passing

Name	CMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	RAT
Wentz	285	452	63.1%	2901	12	11	80.1
Cousins	320	474	67.5%	3811	21	8	99.6

Rushing

Name	ATT	YDS	YDS/G	AVG	TD
Mathews	102	427	42.7	4.2	7
Kelley	112	524	47.6	4.7	4

Receiving

Name	REC	YDS	YDS/G	AVG	TD
Matthews	57	686	62.4	12.0	3
Crowder	58	767	63.9	13.2	7

Sacks

Name	Sacks	Team Total
Graham	5.0	26.0
Kerrigan	10.0	30.0

Tackles

Name	Total	Solo	Assist	Sacks
Bradham	79	53	26	1
Compton	97	55	42	0

Interceptions

Name	Ints	Team Total
McLeod	3	9
Compton/Breeland/Norman/Cravens/Smith/DunbaSpaight	1	7

Punting

Name	ATT	YDS	LONG	AVG	NET	IN 20	TB	FC	BP
Jones	50	2251	72	45.0	39.3	16	6	13	0
Way	31	1351	61	43.6	37.5	12	4	6	0

Kicking

Name	ATT	MADE	%	LONG	PAT
Sturgis	30	25	83.3%	55	23/24
Hopkins	34	28	82.4%	53	27/29

Kick Returns

Name	ATT	YDS	AVG	LONG	TD
Barner	8	251	31.4	61	0
Thompson	12	259	21.6	28	0

Punt Returns

Name	RET	YDS	AVG	LONG	TD	FC
Sproles	16	219	13.7	66	0	11
Crowder	17	261	15.4	85	1	11

League Rankings 2016

Offense Rankings

Category	Eagles Stat	Eagles Rank	Redskins Stat	Redskins Rank
Total Offense	337.9	20th	418.6	2nd
Rush Offense	109.8	10th	109.5	11th
Pass Offense	228.2	23rd	309.1	2nd
Points Per Game	22.3	19th	25.3	10th
3rd-Down Offense	35.8	26th	47.7	3rd
4th-Down Offense	52.6	12th	45.5	23rd
Red Zone Offense (TD%)	53.7	19th	43.8	31st

Defense Rankings

Category	Eagles Stat	Eagles Rank	Redskins Stat	Redskins Rank
Total Defense	345.4	11th	369.6	T-23rd
Rush Defense	100.9	16th	114.3	22nd
Pass Defense	244.5	13th	255.3	18th
Points Per Game	20.4	10th	24.6	20th
3rd-Down Defense	39.9	19th	48.0	32nd
4th-Down Defense	40.0	9th	54.6	T-19th
Red Zone Defense	45.0	4th	67.5	30th

Team

Category	Eagles Stat	Eagles Rank	Redskins Stat	Redskins Rank
Turnover Diff.	+2	T-13th	0	T-18th
Penalty Per Game	8.3	31st	7.2	20th
Penalty Yards Per Game	66.3	24th	53.2	7th

Connections
QBs coach Matt Cavanaugh played for the Eagles from 1986-89
OL coach Bill Callahan held the same title with the Eagles from 1995-97
Asst. Special teams/special projects coach Bret Munsey served as a national scout with the Eagles in 2013
Defensive Quality Control/Asst. DL coach Phillip Daniels played for the Redskins from 2004-10
WR DeSean Jackson was originally selected by the Eagles in the second round of the 2008 NFL Draft. Jackson was a three time Pro Bowl selection and ranks fourth in team history in receiving yards (6,117), seventh in catches (356) and tied for ninth in touchdown catches (32)
DE Cullen Jenkins played two seasons with Philadelphia from 2011-12. Jenkins played with Eagles HC Doug Pederson for the Green Bay Packers from 2003-04.
Assistant ST Coach Bradford Banta worked with Eagles Defensive Coordinator Jim Schwartz for the Detroit Lions from 2009-13. Banta served in the same position (2009-11) and Assistant Linebackers Coach (2012-13) while Schwartz served as the Head Coach.
Assistant ST Coach Bradford Banta played with Eagles S Coach Tim Hauck for the Indianapolis Colts in 1998. Banta played tight end and long snapper while Hauck played safety.
Assistant ST Coach Bradford Banta played with Eagles LS Jon Dorenbos for the Buffalo Bills in 2004.
OLB Coach Greg Manusky (2008-10), TE Vernon Davis (2008-10) and DE Ricky Jean Francois (2009-10) worked with Eagles ST Coordinator Dave Fipp for the San Francisco 49ers.
Defensive Quality Control Chad Grimm and CB Greg Toler worked with Eagles OC Frank Reich for the Arizona Cardinals in 2012.
DC Joe Barry and Defensive Quality Control Chad Grimm worked with Eagles OC Frank Reich for the San Diego Chargers from 2013-14.
RB Coach Randy Jordan played with Eagles Assistant OL/TE/Run Game Coach Eugene Chung for the Jacksonville Jaguars in 1995.
OLB Coach Greg Manusky played with Eagles Assistant OL/TE/Run Game Coach Eugene Chung for the Kansas City Chiefs from 1998-99.
WR Pierre Garçon worked with Eagles OC Frank Reich for the Indianapolis Colts from 2008-11. Reich served in multiple positions including WR Coach (2011).
C John Sullivan played with Eagles WR Coach Greg Lewis from the Minnesota Vikings from 2009-10.
TE Vernon Davis, DE Ricky Jean Francois and S Donte Whitner played with Eagles TE Coach Justin Peelle for the San Francisco 49ers in 2011.
S Duke Ihenacho worked with Eagles DB Coach Cory Undlin for the Denver Broncos from 2012-14.
S Will Blackmon and DL Cullen Jenkins played with Eagles G/T Allen Barbre for the Green Bay Packers from 2007-09.
DB Coach Perry Fewell (2008-09), WR Coach Ike Hilliard (2013), S Donte Whitner (2008-10) and K Dustin Hopkins (2013) played with Eagles CB Leodis McKelvin for the Buffalo Bills.
T Ty Nsekhe played with Eagles S Rodney McLeod for the St. Louis Rams from 2012-13.
LB Mason Foster played with Eagles LB Najee Goode (2012) and Eagles DE Steven Means (2013-14) for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
S Donte Whitner played with Eagles T Jason Peters for the Buffalo Bills from 2006-08.
S Rodney McLeod grew up in Hyattsville, MD, and attended the University of Virginia.
WR Rashad Ross played for Eagles HC Doug Pederson in Kansas City in 2013.
WR Pierre Garçon played for Eagles OC Frank Reich for the Indianapolis Colts from 2008-11. Reich served in multiple positions including WR Coach (2011).
Redskins Players/Staff with ties to Pennsylvania: DE Chris Baker played for Penn State, OLB Coach Greg Manusky is from Dallas, PA.
Eagles Pleayers/Staff with ties to the DC/Maryland/Virginia Area: DC Jim Schwartz is from Halethorpe, Md., Assistant OL/TE/Run Game Coach Eugene Chung is from Vienna, Va., Assistant Strength & Conditioning Coach Keith Gray is from Stuart, Va., S Rodney McLeod is from Clinton, Md., and RB Wendell Smallwood (Elkton, Md.
Eagles Players/Staff who went to college in the DC/Maryland/Virginia Area: OC Frank Reich (Maryland), DC Jim Schwartz (Georgetown), Asst. OL/TE/Run Game Coach Eugene Chung (Virginia Tech), QB Coach John DeFilippo (James Madison), Assistant Strength & Conditioning Coach Keith Gray (Virginia Tech) CB Nolan Carroll (Maryland), and S Rodney McLeod (Virginia).

General
Referee: Tony Corrente
Since 2006, Philadelphia has posted a 5-5 (.500) record in home games vs. Washington. The Eagles have won two of their last three games against the Redskins at Lincoln Financial Field.
The Redskins will attempt to earn a fifth straight victory against the Eagles for the first time since a six game winning streak in the series across the 1981-84 seasons.
This is the 164th meeting between the Redskins and Eagles with an 85-73-5 record in the all-time series. Washington's 85 wins against Philadelphia are their most against any opponent. Additionally, the Redskins’ 41 road wins against the Eagles are their most against any opponent.
The Eagles have a three-game losing streak for the seventh straight year, going all the way back to 2010, or every year this decade. That's kind of amazing when you think about it. They haven't lost four straight since 2012 when they went on an eight-game losing streak.

Video: Redskins Chronicles: Eagles Rivalry

Eagles
The Eagles' Offense rank 2nd in the NFL in time of possession (31:48), trailing only Dallas (32:20). Philadelphia leads the NFL in second-half time of possession (16:46).
The Eagles' Offense rank 5th in goal-to-go TD efficiency (84.2%), trailing only Tampa Bay (87.5%), Pittsburgh (86.7%), New Orleans (86.2%) and Baltimore (84.6%).
The Eagles' Offense ranks 10th in the NFL in rushing yards per game (109.8), trailing only Dallas (155.8), San Francisco (127.7) and Atlanta (110.0) among all NFC teams.
The Eagles' Offense is tied for 5th in the NFL in percentage of rushes gaining 4+ yards (46.5%, 146-of-314), trailing only San Franicsco (47.6%) in the NFC. Philadelphia also ranks 7th in rushing plays of 10+ yards (39), railing only Buffalo (55), Dallas (55), Miami (47), Tennessee (44), San Francisco (43) and Houston (42).
The Eagles' Offense has scored 5 TDs in its last five red zone trips. Over their last two games, the Eagles have converted 13-of-28 (46.4%) third-down attempts.
The Eagles' Defense has allowed only 46 scores on 139 opponent drives in 2016, ranking 10th in the NFL in opponent scoring efficiency (33.1%), trailing only Seattle (26.7%), Los Angeles (29.6%), Minnesota (30.4%) and Arizona (30.7%) among all NFC teams.
The Eagles' Defense ranks 10th in the NFL in points allowed per game (20.4) this season, trailing only Seattle (16.2), Minnesota (17.4), Dallas (19.0) and N.Y. Giants (19.8) in the NFC. The last time the Eagles allowed 245-or-fewer points in the first 12 games of the season was in 2009 (235 points).
The Eagles' Defense ranks 4th in the NFL in opponent red zone scoring efficiency (80.0%, 32-of-40), trailing only Seattle (75.8%), Pittsburgh (77.5%) and Baltimore (79.3%). The Eagles also lead the NFL in opponent yards per play inside the red zone (1.91, 183 yards on 96 plays).
The Eagles' Defense ranks 5th in the NFL in opponent yards lost on negative plays (-307) this season, trailing only Green Bay (366), Arizona (-360), Carolina (-325) and Los Angeles (-311). Philadelphia is tied for the 5th-most opponent negative plays (82) in the NFL, behind Arizona (91), Green Bay (88), Los Angeles (87) and Carolina (86).
The Eagles' Defense has held opponents to 3.0-or-fewer yards per rush attempt in two straight games (2.6 average in Week 12 vs. GB; 2.4 average in Week 13 at Cin.).
The Eagles' Special Teams has posted an NFL-leading 12 special teams TDs (4 kickoff return TDs; 4 punt return TDs; 4 blocked punt return TDs) since 2013. The Eagles are the only NFL team to record multiple kickoff return TDs in 2016.
Since 2013, the Eagles' Special Teams rank 2nd in the NFL in combined kickoff and punt return TDs (8), trailing only Minnesota (9). Since 2014, Philadelphia leads the NFL in both kickoff return TDs (4) and punt return TDs (4). The Eagles are the only NFL team to record multiple kick return TDs in each of the last three seasons (4 in 2014; 2 in 2015; 2 in 2016).
The Eagles' Special Teams leads the NFL in kickoff return average (30.6) in 2016. Since 2014, the team ranks 3rd in the NFL in kickoff return average (26.2), trailing only Baltimore (26.5) and Indianapolis (26.3). Philadelphia also leads the NFL in opponent kickoff return average (17.9) this season, while ranking 4th in that category since 2014, behind Buffalo (19.3), New England (19.8) and N.Y. Giants (20.7).
QB Carson Wentz tied an NFL rookie record with 36 completions, but his three interceptions helped the Bengals defeat the Eagles, 32-14. That mark was set in 1948 by QB Charlie Conerly (36-for-53) and previously matched by QB Chris Weinke (36-for-63 in 2001). Wentz was picked off only once on 157 passes in his first five games, but he has thrown 10 INTs in seven games since then.
QB Carson Wentz ranks 2nd among NFL rookies with 2,901 passing yards and 12 touchdowns.
Since 2012, RB/PR Darren Sproles is the only player in the NFL with 10+ rushing touchdowns (13), 10+ receiving touchdowns (11), and 4 pun return touchdowns (4).
Last week, WR Paul Turner played in his first regular season NFL game and recorded 6 receptions and 80 yards.

Redskins
QB Kirk Cousins has 2,876 pass yards (319.6 per game) with 18 touchdowns vs. 4 interceptions for a 106.6 rating in the Redskins' past 9 on the road. In 4 career meetings against the Eagles, Cousins has completed 110-of-174 passes for 1,345 yards with 10 touchdowns and two interceptions. He has averaged 336.3 passing yards per game against the Eagles, the highest career average against the Eagles of any quarterback (min. two games played) in NFL history.
RB Robert Kelley ranks 3rd among NFL rookies with 524 rush yards.
RB Matt Jones has 261 rush yards and 2 touchdowns in his past 3 games against NFC East teams. Jones rushed for a career-high of 135 yards and a touchdown in his last meeting with the Eagles.
TE Jordan Reed ties for the NFL lead among TEs with 16 touchdown catches (since 2015). Reed has 9 receptions for 129 yards and 2 touchdowns in the last road meeting against the Eagles.
LB Ryan Kerrigan is tied for 2nd in the NFC with 10 sacks and has had a sack in each of his last 3 games. Kerrigan is starting in his 93rd consecutive game this week. That streak is tied for second-most among active NFL linebackers. Kerrigan has not missed a start in his NFL career.

Milestones
QB Carson Wentz (2,901 - 20th) can make a move up to 17th place on the Eagles' All-Time Passing Yards list with 319 more passing yards. He will pass QB Pete Liske (2,930 - 19th) and QB Mark Sanchez (3,034 - 18th), and QB Roy Zimmerman (3,219 -17th) along the way.
TE Brent Celek (4,820) needs 180 more yards to reach 5000 career receiving yards.
RB Darren Sproles (18,867 - 8th) is 8th on the NFL's All-Time All-Purpose Yards list. He can move into 7th place with 103 more yards. However, WR Steve Smith (18,970 - 7th) is currently in 7th place and is still active in the NFL. Sproles (18,867) is 133 All-Purpose Yards away from 19,000 Career All-Purpose Yards.
RB Darren Sproles is 1 touchdown away from 60 total career touchdowns.
DE Connor Barwin (30.5 - 15th) is in 15th place on the Eagles All-Time Sack List. Barwin can move into 14th place with 1 more sack joining DE Juqua Parker (31.5 - 14th). Barwin is also 0.5 sacks away from reaching 50 career sacks!
DE Brandon Graham (28.5 - 17th) needs 1.5 Sacks to pass DT Jerome Brown (29.5 - 16th) on the Eagles All-Time Sack List. 1.5 Sacks will also give Graham 30 Career Sacks
K Caleb Sturgis (98) is 2 Field Goals Made from 100 Career Field Goals Made.
WR Jamison Crowder (58) is 2 receptions away from setting a single-season career high in receptions (59 in 2015). Crowder's 767 receiving yards and seven receiving touchdowns this season are already career highs.
WR Jamison Crowder (9) is 1 touchdown reception away from becoming the fifth member of the Redskins to compile 10 touchdown receptions in the first two seasons of an NFL career (WR Charlie Brown (16); TE Chris Cooley (13); WR Gary Clark (12); WR Rod Gardner (12).
TE Vernon Davis (497) is 3 receptions away from becoming the the 12th tight end in NFL history to record 500 career receptions. Additionally, Davis is 3 touchdowns away from 60 career touchdowns.
WR DeSean Jackson (481) is 19 receptions away from 500 career receptions.
WR Pierre Garçon can extend his streak of consecutive regular season games played with a reception to 99, It's the fifth longest active streak in the NFL (WR Larry Fitzgerald (191); WR Brandon Marshall (156); WR Steve Smith Sr (139); WR Michael Crabtree(107)). 70 of the games in Garçon’s streak have come with Washington, the third-longest streak by a member of the Redskins since the 1970 merger.
WR Pierre Garçon (59) is 7 receptions away from entering a tie with WR Art Monk for the most consecutive 65-catch seasons in Redskins' team history (4, 1988-91).
WR Pierre Garçon (6,741) is 259 receiving yards away from 7,000 career receiving yards.
WR Pierre Garçon (4,222 - 11th) can move into 10th place on the Redskins' All-Time Receiving yards list with 59 more yards. He would pass WR Michael Westbrook (4,280 - 10th)
HC Jay Gruden is 1 win away from his 20th victory with the Redskins. He would be the ninth coach in team history to reach 20 wins, joining HC Joe Gibbs (171), HC George Allen (79), HC Ray Flaherty (56), HC Norv Turner (50), HC Joe Kuharich (26), HC Jack Pardee (24), HC Mike Shanahan (24), and Bill McPeak (21).
DE Cullen Jenkins (47.5) is 2.5 sacks away from 50 career sacks.
LB Ryan Kerrigan (57.5) is 2.5 sacks away from 60 career sacks.

Matchups to Watch
Eagles CB Leodis McKelvin vs. Redskins WR DeSean Jackson
McKelvin certainly won't shadow Jackson, but look for the Redskins to try to get that matchup as often as they can and when they do look for QB Kirk Cousins to go deep to the former (and future?) Eagle. McKelvin has lost a step or two and is going to have trouble running with Jackson.
Eagles LB Nigel Bradham vs. Redskins TE Jordan Reed
The Eagles thought they got a break when Reed missed the first game this season. Backup Vernon Davis scored a touchdown, however. Bradham has been pretty good against tight ends this season, but Reed will be his toughest test yet.
Eagles RT Allen Barbre vs. Redskins LB Ryan Kerrigan
If you remember the first game, Kerrigan terrorized rookie Halapoulivaati Vaitai, who was playing his first NFL game. This time he gets Barbre, a seasoned veteran, but more of a guard than a tackle. It will be interesting to see if the Eagle give Barbre any help with the 'Skins pass rusher.

On November 12, 1993, UFC debuted in Denver as an unsanctioned PPV brawl trying to answer the question of, if you put fighters from all sorts of disciplines in a no rules fight, who would win.
At the time, most Americans were conditioned to think a boxer would knock everyone out, or perhaps, some huge muscular guy would overpower everyone. They were shocked when a skinny, 6-1, 175-pounder named Royce Gracie, used ground technique to cut through the competition. They put their family name and business, Gracie Jiu Jitsu, on the map, propagating the myth that in a fight, size doesn’t matter if you have the right technique.
15 years later, UFC was a fully sanctioned sport with worldwide media attention for its 11/15 show at the MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas.
Brock Lesnar, going into the cage at 277 pounds, giving him a 57-pound weight advantage over Randy Couture, knocked the legendary champion down in the second round and nailed him with 40 rapid fire hammer fists to the head before ref Mario Yamasaki stopped the fight and awarded Lesnar the UFC heavyweight championship.
It was an interesting dichotomy, as the general public, and gamblers, looked at the size difference and felt there was no way for Couture to win. Oddsmakers across the board started with Couture as the favorite, but consistently, until the last day, almost all the money came in on Lesnar. Those in the know, like the fighters, smiled knowing that there was no way for Lesnar to win, because a guy with three pro fights, even one as physically impressive as Lesnar, isn’t going to walk into a sport and beat a living legend, even if that legend was 45 years old. Of course, there was the argument that Couture’s main strength in fighting in his wrestling, and he was facing a younger, much larger and stronger man, who was also a very good wrestler. Even if Couture was technically a better wrestler, even those close to the situation gave, due to size, the wrestling edge to Lesnar. But Couture would find a way to win, because he’d defend, cause the big man to tire, and take advantage late. As usual, the truth was probably somewhere in the middle.
There were many different things that could have happened. What did is, Couture moved his head out of the way of a Lesnar punch, but Lesnar’s ridiculous reach, with what Couture tabbed “Inspector Gadget arms,” still clocked him on the side of the ear with enough force to put the champion down. Lesnar didn’t hesitate for a split second in going all out for the finish. Ref Yamasaki tried to give Couture every opportunity to get up, clearly not wanting to give the champion every chance to escape. But after 40 blows, with Couture not moving, he had no choice.
You can always say “What if?” It doesn’t matter and it doesn’t take away what Lesnar accomplished. If that punch missed, how would it have played out? Just as if Lesnar had stepped out of Frank Mir’s submission in February, how would that match have played out? It can be debated forever. Maybe Couture’s strategy would have paid dividends in the late round. Maybe it would have backfired, as Couture, in a battle of wrestling against a bigger man and boxing with a guy who hit much harder, still may have lost.
The finish was a shock to the most vocal hardcore MMA fans, and while Lesnar’s win got a mix of cheers and outright shock, once people recovered and Lesnar did his interview, he was heavily booed by the crowd that during this fight, lived and died with every move Couture made. Every time he would simply thwart a Lesnar move or get up from the bottom, the place would explode. Even with a fight that could have been promoted better and had a strangely low-key and rushed feeling weigh-in, on the night of the show, the atmosphere was top-notch. Couture and Lesnar followed arguably the company’s best undercard of the year, with spectacular finishes and impressive performances. Lesnar was still the outsider in this morality play, the bully coming into the castle against the white night. They’ve seen it in movies, and seen it in pro wrestling. It was really a unique dynamic, because when they did the staredown, it was ridiculous. But they saw Couture staredown with Tim Sylvia and how did that end up?
Lesnar was billed at 6-3 and Couture at 6-2, but next to each other, it was clear those numbers were ridiculous. Lesnar had no less than four inches on Couture.
Couture got the first psychological edge because Lesnar at first couldn’t take him down. But finally, at the 2:10 mark, Couture fell victim to a double leg and was on his back. Couture quickly reversed and had Lesnar’s back, but Lesnar reversed back into the top position. Lesnar did some offense from the top, but nothing terribly significant, and Couture would always get up. Couture, from his specialty, the Greco-Roman clinch, was even able to turn Lesnar against the cage and came close to a takedown, as Lesnar, instinctively, grabbed the cage to avoid it, an illegal move that caused Yamasaki to warn him. Still, with the takedowns and some damage from the top, all three judges gave it to Lesnar, but it was close.
Even though he was down on the cards, the fight was going more the way Couture would have wanted it. Joe Rogan noted between rounds that Lesnar was getting tired. Those at ringside noted to me after the fight that they couldn’t believe the amount Lesnar was sweating by the end of the first round, also indicating they believed he was gassing, but not realizing Lesnar naturally sweats a ton. That’s just his make-up, and actually, going forward in his career, it could be a problem for opponents because it’ll allow him to perhaps slip out of submissions late in fights if he does tire. Also noted (here comes the small calves story) by people after the fight was the nature of Lesnar’s takedowns, that he never went low or used his quickness to shoot, and instead tried to rely on upper body power alone. Perhaps this was in response to rumors that Couture had knocked a major name fighter out in training while practicing timing throwing knees on a low shot that he expected to come from Lesnar. Perhaps there was something to the rumored hamstring injury that his camp denied a couple of months back. Perhaps he just didn’t see the opening. The fight was over before late round conditioning came into play. Before the fight, Lesnar appeared confident the late rounds would favor him because of Couture having to push around a guy so much larger.
Rogan didn’t note that it appeared Couture, having to wrestle such a huge man, was also getting tired and breathing heavy between rounds (partially because his corner told him to do so to get as much oxygen in for the next round). It was noted after, that people who go in “knowing” that Couture is going to gas Lesnar and finish him in the championship rounds, are going to see what they know is going to happen. Don’t get me wrong, I expected Couture to win because it’s his sport, but also knew that Couture winning depended upon Lesnar either tiring, which I didn’t expect, or making a mental error, which I figured in 25 minutes, was likely to happen due to inexperience.
During the second round, they started trading punches. Couture connected more, but Lesnar answered one of his biggest questions. Yes, he can take a punch. He felt it. He wasn’t significantly hurt by it. His punches were doing more damage on Couture. But Couture busted Lesnar’s right eye with a punch.
“It made me a little nervous and it pissed me off,” said Lesnar. “I wanted to get first blood. Something in my head said, `We’ve got to pick this up.’”
And he did, hitting a strong uppercut. But Lesnar was getting out boxed standing, and was looking worried, yet at that moment, connected with the blow that won him the championship.
“I don’t remember the punch (that won the fight),” Lesnar said. “The only thing I remember is I hit him about 40 times (on the ground). I was wondering when the ref would stop it, and wondering if he’d do Superman and get up.”
Couture was clearly frustrated. He, from all accounts, had an amazing camp and was looking better than ever. While facially, yes, he looked old, he did not have an old man’s reflexes and quite frankly, it was amazing the job he was doing in the wrestling exchanges.
Although the age of 45 and 15 months away would lead people to believe Lesnar beat a rusty, washed up fighter, those who trained with Couture were adamant he was handling big wrestlers well and his striking had never been better. Despite the loss, Couture didn’t fight like a washed up guy and while I wouldn’t favor him in a rematch, I also wouldn’t say he had no chance, although with each month, whatever chance he has diminishes. He fought like a guy who simply got caught, which was his explanation after the fight. What he does next is up in the air. At 220 pounds, he was the real size of most light heavyweights today. But there are aspects of his style that are why he’s been successful as a heavyweight. His wrestling knowledge allowed him to neutralize the power guys, and he’s faster than most heavyweights. As a light heavyweight, he’s not as quick in comparison, nor as good a striker as most, although he probably could out wrestle most of them.
For Lesnar, his next move is to face the winner of the Frank Mir vs. Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira fight, which he hopes, for retribution, will be Mir. But most would favor Nogueira in that fight. The timetable, provided the winner of the fight doesn’t get injured, would be March or April.
In many ways, Nogueira would be Lesnar’s current ultimate challenge unless somehow a match with Fedor Emelianenko transpires. Nogueira has quicker hands than Couture, although doesn’t have a lot of knockouts to his credit. He can be knocked down, but unlike Couture, who when he’s been hit hard, that usually ends the fight, Nogueira has never been finished in a fight. But Nogueira has taken so many beatings, that his once incredible reflexes did seem slower in his last fight with Tim Sylvia. But the key is, he’s far more dangerous than Couture on the ground.
Lesnar is a powerful guy who drills like crazy and has a big camp with submission aware people like BJJ champ Comprido and first generation submission fighter Erik Paulsen all geared at making him the best he can be. Whether that’s enough to avoid Nogueira’s submissions on the ground for 25 minutes by next spring is a question. The advantage Lesnar has is that there is no way Nogueira will get him to the ground if he doesn’t want to be there. Nogueira best strategic move may even be the old-time possum playing, of taking a punch and going down, figuring Lesnar will follow him down and then be waiting when he gets there.
Lesnar’s win gives the company something it has never had in the past, a champion who is truly hated. He’s been the company’s top draw of 2008 while climbing the ladder, and now, the idea of the great BJJ hope chasing him and taking the title back from him should make him as big a draw as UFC can have given the times we live in. Plus, the best part of this is everyone has “the hope” because they’ve seen that Lesnar is vulnerable. They saw what Mir did, so they know it’s possible.
There is a natural inclination to hate Lesnar because, if Couture and Lesnar are the same size, even with the age difference, Couture wins. Despite being heavyweight champion, I don’t expect Lesnar to show up in the top ten in the mythical pound-for-pound rankings. But whatever you think of him, he trained his ass off, and the reason he has gotten so far so fast is that is fame open the doors for him, but if he couldn’t fight, those doors would have been closed. And while he did lose to Mir and only had a 1-1 record before getting a title shot, his marketability opened that door, but going in, the people who made this match, while nobody bets against Couture because of history, knew full well as a style match-up, this was going to be tough on him. He was bigger and stronger, making him better in this match, at what Couture’s major strength is. But there are plenty of 280- pound guys in the sport who haven’t gotten as far because they weren’t the athlete he is, but also, because they didn’t train as hard as he did. That training discipline, a throwback to his college wrestling days, was a huge part of his success.
Lesnar passed a few tests. He can take a punch. He doesn’t fold under adversity and when he’s not successful at “bullying” smaller guys around, because Couture did some things to him and he calmly regained control. He was worried, but it worked out in his favor. We don’t know if he can go the distance, but he probably can, and with Nogueira, there is a good chance we’ll find out for sure. Nogueira will also test any weaknesses he may have as a stand-up fighter, and if he does, will test his submission defense like nobody else if he goes to the ground. And Nogueira is hardly the only test.
Waiting in the wings is Shane Carwin, who is just as big, almost as strong (Carwin is stronger lifting wise but that’s because he has shorter arms, I’d guess Lesnar is physically stronger but even that’s not a lock), almost as quick and more experienced with every bit of the same mean strike, and Carwin is at this point a better striker with just as hard a punch.
Also in the wings is the guy most inside the business feel is the future of the heavyweight division in Cain Velasquez, who just underwent knee surgery and isn’t expected back until around April. Velasquez is only slightly behind Lesnar as a credentialed wrestler, but being 25, may be just as good at this point. Velasquez is far better at strikes and submissions, and no matter how good Lesnar’s conditioning is, Velasquez’s is better. Bobby Lashley, who trained with Velasquez recently, just shook his head when asked noting that the guy never gets tired. Velasquez, locally, is a myth all onto himself, as Javier Mendez, who has trained B.J. Penn, Frank Shamrock, Cung Le, Jake Shields, Gilbert Melendez and Josh Koscheck at various times, said Velasquez is the single greatest athlete who ever walked through his doors. Lesnar’s one edge is that he’d go into a fight with a 35- 40 pound weight edge, as Velasquez has to pig out to keep his weight at 240, because he trains so much the weight naturally comes off. The odds are greatly against him beating all three because all pose different types of threats.
For UFC, the key now is to get Carwin and Velasquez in prominent positions on upcoming shows, because nobody outside the hardcores has a clue who they are, and whether they can beat Lesnar or not, if nobody cares about them, there won’t be as much interest in the fights.
As far as this show went, it drew 14,272 fans, which was a few hundred shy of capacity, and a $4.8 million gate. It was the fourth biggest MMA gate in North American history, trailing Liddell vs. Ortiz, Georges St. Pierre vs. Matt Serra and Liddell vs. Wanderlei Silva. We don’t have a paid number, but it was probably around 11,000 to 11,500, and a lot of the paid were late casino package buys. It wasn’t that people didn’t want to see it, as there were more people logged in when tickets went on sale than for any show in history, but the prices and the economy scared people off. If it was scaled lower, it would have sold out immediately.
We don’t even have a preliminary indication of the PPV numbers, although are likely to have something by the end of the week. Our response level was lower than I’d have expected for this show. While Dana White was throwing out a 1.2 million number as his prediction to the media all week, my thought was 750,000 to 800,000 buys based on hype level, and with the economy in the shape it is, people may double up, as in more people going to sports bars or more people per household watching, lowering the total number of buys. White even recognized that and on ESPN, pushed the idea of getting nine or ten of your friends together, split up the cost, buy some pizza and beer and have a great night. We got a lot of reports from sports bars saying it was more packed for this fight than any UFC in history, and normally that would correlate to a record PPV.
Both men’s payday depend on the numbers. Couture’s contract was $250,000 guarantee plus a $250,000 winning bonus that he didn’t collect. He also has a sliding scale PPV cut, which at 750,000 buys would be an additional $1,582,500, or $1.83 million total. At 1 million buys, he’d get$2.58 million total and at 1.2 million buys, would be $3.18 million. Lesnar got a $250,000 guarantee, and $200,000 bonus, and a PPV cut. His cut is undisclosed other than those close to the situation saying it’s “close to” but lower than what Couture got. Considering he got $200,000 more than Couture for winning, his numbers won’t be that far off from Couture’s numbers. With the exception of John Cena because of his merchandise, Lesnar would have had a bigger year than any of the pro wrestlers. If you saw the ESPN piece, you can see he’s got a small inexpensive car, no Internet, a TV only to watch hunting, fishing and sports and doesn’t live anything like he did as a free spender in his WWE days, living in the woods in Alexandria, a city of 11,000 people in Northern Minnesota.
As for the rest of the show, it had everything you’d want from a show, with great finishes, only one match going to a decision, and it was the best match on the show, and history was made in the main event. Many considered it Zuffa’s show of the year, and from top-to-bottom, it would be hard to argue. The main events wouldn’t match up to the 6/1 show in Sacramento (Miguel Torres vs. Yoshiro Maeda and Urijah Faber vs. Jens Pulver were both match of the year candidates, and nothing on this show was in that category), but the prelims here blew that show away.
Both TNA and WWE acknowledged Lesnar’s win on their web sites, but neither did on their television shows. He’s no longer under contract to WWE, and that’s how they are. They acknowledged Dwayne Johnson’s movie openings when he was under contract, but not after, although the studios always heavily advertise his movies on WWE programming. WWE dropped plugging Stacey Keibler midway through “Dancing with the Stars” (after being criticized for it, they did briefly make later mentions) and she was still under contract, just because they realized she wouldn’t be renewing. Certainly, in the old days, every wrestling company would have pointed to it, as an affirmation if not of the legitimacy of pro wrestling itself, but of the legitimacy of wrestlers as tough guys. You could make the argument either way, but I wouldn’t expect they would.
Still, I was surprised WWE ripped the show itself. On their web site in an article noting Lesnar was the first man to capture both the WWE and UFC heavyweight championship (Ken Shamrock stopped at the IC title level; Dan Severn was recognized as NWA champion within WWE), they wrote:
“Critics have noted that many of the fights on the UFC PPV ended in the first round, leaving UFC producers scrambling to fill the three-hour window with content. The dearth of hearty competition left many viewers to watch less prestigious undercard fights and only served to bolster claims that UFC PPV events can often be a `crap shoot’ in regards to filling the full three hours. For his part, Lesnar took the encouragement o the WWE Universe and the hard lessons forged during his fiery time at WWE and showed UFC and the world why he is not only a man of mettle, but also a former three-time WWE champion.”
Clearly, someone recognized by the next day that the company came off poorly with that review. It probably would never come off well, but doing so after what many considered the best show of the year made the timing even worse. The entire article was not only taken off the main page the next day, but completely erased from the site. Interestingly, Shane McMahon was at the show live, but kept a low-key presence as I never saw him, nor was he shown either on television or to the live crowd. No other pro wrestling people were there, unlike Lesnar’s first fight in Las Vegas. Most of the WWE crew was in Europe, although Undertaker was home by the time of the fight. Steve Austin, who was at his first match, was in Vancouver shooting a movie. Dwayne Johnson, who had planned to attend, was also unable to attend as he was needed to shoot scenes that day.
In the heyday of Mike Tyson, when his PPV numbers were killing WWF’s, they did at times rip Tyson PPVs, after a string of early knockouts, with the line that WWF guarantees you three hours of entertainment instead of spending so much money for something that could be over in one round.