Part 1 of 3

Part 2 Right Here: https://dfaroto.com/nfl/week-14-matchup-strategy-guide-part-2

Part 3 Right Here: https://dfaroto.com/nfl/week-14-matchup-strategy-guide-part-3**

GLOSSARY

DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) calculates a team's success based on the down-and-distance of each play during the season, then calculates how much more or less successful each team is compared to the league average.
DVOA Pass/Run Defense Rank: Team’s NFL rank in DVOA pass or run defense so far this season. #1 means best DEF against the pass/run, #32 means worst DEF against the pass/run.
ATS = Against the spread
DVOA from https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamdef/2019

Dallas Cowboys (-3) at Chicago Bears

Cowboys ATS: 7-5-0 Bears ATS: 3-9-0
Projected Team Totals: Cowboys 22.75 Bears 19.75

Cowboys

Opp (CHI) Pass DVOA: #8
Opp (CHI) Run DVOA: #12
Injuries to Watch DEF (CHI): CB Prince Amukamara (D) LB Danny Trevathan (D)
Injuries to Watch OFF (DAL): RB Tony Pollard (Q)
Key WCB matchups: None
Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks): Amari Cooper (20%) Michael Gallup (20%) Randall Cobb (16%) Jason Witten (16%) Ezekiel Elliot (10%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 13: Ezekiel Elliott (88%, 19, 10) Tony Pollard (14%, 3, 1)
QB/WTE Breakdown
Dallas was thoroughly embarrassed at home on Turkey day by an increasingly playoff bound BUF squad. That feels odd to say because before last year, BUF had gone 17 years without making the playoffs, the longest drought in professional sports. I digress, Dak Prescott played decently well against a tough BUF secondary, but ultimately turnovers and missed field goals killed DAL is the end. DAL draws another tough matchup, but the CHI defense isn’t as ferocious as it once was earlier in the season. It appears that similar to last year with JAX, it’s difficult to give your all on defense when it’s known that your offense can’t move the ball. Either way, Dak should be treated as a low-end QB1 - CHI is only giving up 14.3 FPPG to QBs and 17.5 to WRs.
Amari Cooper (downgrade) is now riding a stretch of 3 disappointing performances in a row, having yet to find the endzone or clear 100-yards receiving since Week 10. A glaring concern is his target share, he’s not drawing the lion’s share à la Michael Thomas or Davante Adams. Instead, Randall Cobb and Michael Gallup are eating into his targets, with Gallup seeing the exact same percentage as Cooper over the last six weeks. Add to the mix that Cooper has been awful away from the friendly confines of the house that Jerry built (Rotoworld), and we have the recipe for another disappointing outing. Don’t bench Coop, but don’t expect a world beating performance either. He’s more a WR2 this week, with Cobb and Gallup being relegated to WR3 status. Jason Witten has continued to turn back the clock this year, but he’s really not an option outside of deeper leagues - consider him a touchdown dependent TE2.
RB Breakdown
For reasons unknown, Jason Garrett’s game plan last week involved mostly passing against one of the best secondaries in the league, instead of running the ball against one of the worst rush defenses. Ezekiel Elliot (downgrade) still gobbled up 71-yards on the ground on only 12 carries, while putting up an additional 66-yards on 7 catches. Zeke is a matchup proof RB1, but again draws a matchup that projects tough sledding - CHI only gives up 18.1 FPPG to RBs. Tony Pollard needs to be rostered for fantasy playoffs, whether you own Zeke or not.

Bears

Opp (DAL) Pass DVOA: #23
Opp (DAL) Run DVOA: #17
Injuries to Watch DEF (DAL): S Jeff Heath (Q) LB Leighton Vander Esch (D) DT Antwaun Woods (Q)
Injuries to Watch OFF (CHI): WR Taylor Gabriel (D) TE Ben Braunecker (D) OT Bobby Massie (D)
Key WCB matchups: None
Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks): Allen Robinson (24%) Anthony Miller (19%) Taylor Gabriel (19%) Tarik Cohen (15%) David Montgomery (8%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 13: David Montgomery (62%, 18, 2) Tarik Cohen (55%, 7, 4)
QB/WTE Breakdown
In the second matchup on Turkey day, Mitchell Trubisky (downgrade) had one of his best outings of the season against an ailing DET team, throwing for 338-yards and three touchdowns with only one interception. It’s likely not a performance that can be replicated, and he’s not a trustworthy option for any format, outside of extremely deep 2QB leagues.
Surprisingly, it was not Allen Robinson that led the Bears in receiving last week, but Anthony Miller, who has taken full advantage of Taylor Gabriel’s absence. Don’t go chasing waterfalls, as Trubisky has only cleared 250-yards passing in four games this year. This offense has only been able to support one receiver, and DAL has been particularly stingy against the pass, even with a bottom-10 Pass DVOA - only giving up 18.5 FPPG to WRs. Miller has earned himself every week WR4 treatment, but outside of deeper formats, he seems like a wish, especially with the fantasy season on the line. Allen Robinson is matchup proof and belongs in all lineups, but temper expectations this week, he’s more a WR2 in the tough matchup. Don’t consider using J.P Holtz or Bradley Sowell as a TE streamer, just don’t.
RB Breakdown
If you drafted David Montgomery (upgrade) in the first five rounds, you didn’t get the season you were hoping for. That can be partially attributed to CHI not living up to expectations as a team, but also to Matt Nagy’s insistence on using a RBBC with Mike Davis, or deciding to pass instead of using one of their best offensive weapons. Either way, Dmont is the RB20 in .5 PPR formats, which while is still a bust, is something to build on for next year. It’s very possible he becomes a post-hype sleeper, and I’ll personally be looking to draft him at a discounted rate next year. DAL gives up 18.1 FPPG to RBs, and it’s likely that CHI has positive or neutral game-script at home, so Montgomery should see plenty of work. Get him fired up as a solid RB2. The human joystick, Tarik Cohen, simply isn’t seeing the volume to be trusted. He’s better suited to PPR formats, but he’s just a big play dependent RB3 in all formats and should be left on the bench.
Score Prediction: Bears 17, Cowboys 13

Baltimore Ravens (-5.5) at Buffalo Bills

Ravens ATS: 6-6-0 Bills ATS: 8-3-1
Projected Team Totals: Ravens 24.5 Bills 19

Ravens

Opp (BUF) Pass DVOA: #5
Opp (BUF) Run DVOA: #22
Injuries to Watch DEF (BUF): None
Injuries to Watch OFF (BAL): TE Nick Boyle (Q) WR Seth Roberts (Q)
Key WCB matchups: Marquise Brown vs. Tre’Davious White (Rotoworld)
Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks): Mark Andrews (20%) Marquise Brown (18%) Nick Boyle (13%) Willie Snead (11%) Hayden Hurst (9%) Mark Ingram (8%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 13: Mark Ingram (55%, 17, 2) Gus Edwards (38%, 7, 1) Justice Hill (6%, 1, 0)
QB/WTE Breakdown
It’s clear now, the Baltimore Ravens are the best team in the NFL. With victories over the Seahawks, Patriots, and 49ers, there is nothing left to prove. SF was able to give them their closest game of the season, but even the best defensive line in the game couldn’t stop Lamar Jackson (upgrade) from converting short yardage situations. Jackson needs just 63-yards rushing to break Michael Vick’s record of most rushing yards in a season by a quarterback - going against a bottom-10 Run DVOA in BUF seems like just the place to do it. BUF cedes just 13.1 FPPG to QBs and just 17.5 FPPG to WRs - but Lamar is immune to things we mere mortals would consider imposing - fire him up as THE QB1.
No receiver or tight end saw more than six targets last week, and Mark Andrews and Hayden Hurst finished tied for the most receptions, with just three. Outside of Andrews, it’s extremely difficult to predict where the volume is going week-to-week, so it’s likely best not to start a BAL wideout - especially going against one of the best secondaries in the league. Marquise Brown (downgrade) is the only WR worth consideration in this offense, and he draws a difficult matchup against CB Tre’Davious White, who has won most of his shadow dates this season (Rotoworld). Consider Brown a boom-or-bust WR3, and I’d really only consider playing him if you have no other option, or you are playing a team in fantasy playoffs with a high projected point total and need the boom week over consistency.
RB Breakdown
The RB9 on the season in .5 PPR, Mark Ingram (upgrade) has been an absolute steal at his ADP. Although he’s not seeing huge volume, and he has been vultured by Lamar Jackson on a regular basis at the goal line. Although, this offense is generating enough points for Ingram and Jackson to co-exist. Ingram has 12 touchdowns on the year, 9 rushing and 3 receiving, and there’s no reason to see him slowing down in the explosive BAL offense. On tap is a matchup with a bottom-10 Run DVOA - BUF is ceding 18.3 FPPG to RBs - get Ingram active as an RB1. Gus Edwards is Ingram’s true handcuff, not rookie Justice Hill, and he should be rostered by Ingram owners for fantasy playoffs.

Bills

Opp (BAL) Pass DVOA: #3
Opp (BAL) Run DVOA: #25
Injuries to Watch DEF (BAL): S Earl Thomas (P) CB Jimmy Smith (P) CB Marlon Humphrey (P) ILB Patrick Onwuasor (Q)
Injuries to Watch OFF (BUF): OT Ty Nsekhe (Q)
Key WCB matchups: None
Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks): John Brown (27%) Cole Beasley (20%) Devin Singletary (13%) Isaiah McKenzie (13%) Dawson Knox (10%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 13: Devin Singletary (78%, 17, 4) Frank Gore (22%, 10, 1)
QB/WTE Breakdown
BUF vs. BAL is the matchup of two QBs who were told that they could never play the position at the highest level. So far, both Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen have exceeded expectations in the NFL. Although BAL now boasts a top-3 secondary - and only gives up 13.1 FPPG to QBs, and 20.8 FPPG to WRs - Allen’s willingness to get it done with his legs warrants every week QB1 treatment. I’d temper expectations a bit, but unless you have a top-5 QB option, it’s likely best to roll with Allen at home this week.
Smokey John Brown (downgrade) has been an absolute stud this season and is on pace to eclipse the 1,000-yard mark, something that hasn’t been done for BUF since Sammy Watkins in 2015 (pro-football-reference). Brown gets a downgrade this week facing off against a trio of stud Cornerbacks - Marcus Peters is PFF’s No. 5 CB, Marlon Humphrey is No. 30, and Jimmy Smith is No. 40 - Brown is more a WR2 in the tough matchup. Cole Beasley (downgrade) has exploded the last few weeks, but it’s the same story as Brown, going against stud CB Humphrey in the slot projects as a floor week for Beasley. He should be considered a low-end WR3 that is better suited for PPR formats. Dawson Knox has had some exciting moments in his rookie season, but can’t be relied upon on a weekly basis. Leave him on the wire.
RB Breakdown
The Devin Singletary breakout has been full steam ahead since Week 9 against WAS, and the rookie has received more than 15 touches in every game except for one since then. Frank Gore will continue to be a thorn in his side, but Singletary can be safely treated as a weekly flex option. Unfortunately, against BAL is tough sledding - they only cede 17 FPPG to RBs. Plus, it’s likely that BUF faces negative game-script and is forced to abandon the run. Singletary has shown passing game chops, so he’s decently matchup proof, just temper expectations in the tough matchup.
Score Prediction: Ravens 27, Bills 17

Washington Redskins at Green Bay Packers (-13)

Redskins ATS: 5-7-0 Packers ATS: 8-4-0
Projected Team Totals: Redskins 14.5 Packers 27.5

Redskins

Opp (GB) Pass DVOA: #18
Opp (GB) Run DVOA: #28
Injuries to Watch DEF (GB): CB Tramon Williams (P) CB Kevin King (Q) CB Tony Brown (Q) DT Tyler Lancaster (Q) ILB Blake Martinez (Q) S Will Redmond (Q)
Injuries to Watch OFF (WAS): WR Trey Quinn (D) WR Paul Richardson (Q) G Brandon Scherff (Q)
Key WCB matchups: None
Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks): Terry McLaurin (24%) Kelvin Harmon (15%) Paul Richardson (15%) Jeremy Sprinkle (9%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 13: Derrius Guice (30%, 12, 3) Adrian Peterson (36%, 13, 1) Chris Thompson (36%, 4, 2)
QB/WTE Breakdown
Washington has now found its way into the win column three times this season, including back-to-back wins against DET and somehow CAR. Regardless, Dwayne Haskins is not a fantasy option.
The decline of Terry McLaurin (downgrade) has been scary fast, as he hasn’t cleared 75-yards receiving in six consecutive games, and has six or fewer targets in five of his six last games (Rotoworld). This passing game is one to steer clear of for fantasy playoffs. Don’t do it.
RB Breakdown
Adrian Peterson and Derrius Guice (upgrade) continue to split carries, and between the two, Guice has more upside. Unfortunately, with the RBBC and Chris Thompson being healthy, there may not be enough volume to count on. Guice has received just 11 and 12 touches since coming back from injury, and although he’s made the most of them, as long as all three running backs are in the mix, it will be hard to rely on any of them. This week presents a great opportunity - GB cedes 22.1 FPPG to RBs - but even with the great matchup, it’s likely that WAS faces a negative game-script and is forced to abandon the run, limiting the ceiling of Guice. Consider Guice a back-end RB2 with upside, Peterson a middling RB3, and Thompson a waiver-wire change of pace back.

Packers

Opp (WAS) Pass DVOA: #20
Opp (WAS) Run DVOA: #19
Injuries to Watch DEF (WAS): LB Ryan Anderson (Q) LB Montez Sweat (Q)
Injuries to Watch OFF (GB): OT Bryan Bulaga (Q) TE Jimmy Graham (Q)
Key WCB matchups: None
Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks): Davante Adams (32%) Jamaal Williams (13%) Allen Lazard (12%) Aaron Jones (11%) Jimmy Graham (9%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 13: Aaron Jones (58%, 15, 6) Jamaal Williams (42%, 14, 4)
QB/WTE Breakdown
In a game bogged down by snowy conditions, Aaron Rodgers (upgrade) turned in an impressive performance against the sub-par New York Giants defense. This week, he’ll return home to face the Redskins, who are slightly below average in both DVOA (20th) and FPPG allowed to QBs (20th). This profiles as a plus matchup that Rodgers should be able to take advantage of, and it also bodes well for him that his entire arsenal of weapons is (likely) healthy heading into the weekend. View Rodgers as a solid QB1, but his ceiling has been lowered slightly this year due to the effectiveness of the run game in the red zone. The biggest concern with starting Rodgers against the Redskins is that they take a big lead and he isn’t needed much for the win. But he should be able to rack up a solid stat line regardless.
Davante Adams (auto-start) was able to cash in last week as well, hitting on two scores despite not getting over 100 receiving yards. Adams is a must start in any league and any format, and the matchup against the Redskins (17th against WRs) doesn’t do anything to move the needle. Expect a solid, potentially blow-up type performance out of Adams this week if the Redskins are able to at all keep pace offensively. Allen Lazard (volume downgrade), has a big day of his own on Sunday, going for 103 yards and a TD, despite only catching 3 passes. The volume is an indicator that this type of production shouldn’t be expected again this week, and while Washington is vulnerable to the pass, they aren’t enough of a sieve to make Lazard a trustworthy streamer. He’s a dart-throw WR4 in hopes of a long TD, and would be a very risky fantasy playoff dice roll. Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Geronimo Allison continue to be non-factors, so leave them on waivers in all leagues. Jimmy Graham isn’t operating at 100%, and hasn’t had a usable stat line in weeks, do not even consider him this week.
RB Breakdown
The up and down season from Aaron Jones (upgrade) continues to confound all potential logic. Even in positive game-script and seemingly run-heavy weather conditions, Jones was unable to put anything of note together on his 15 touches. Jamaal Williams (upgrade PPR) didn’t do much more with his 14 touches, but at least salvaged his day with a decent receiving line. The Redskins are not a stout rush defense - 19th run DVOA and 12th most FPPG to RBs - and the position as home favorites make both Packers’ RBs attractive targets. Jones is the superior play due to his game breaking ability and role as the goal-line back, but Williams is an intriguing flex in PPR leagues. Treat Jones as a borderline RB1, just be aware he isn’t very trustworthy at this point. This feels like a spot he would drop 100+ and 1-2 TDs, but we just never know.
Score Prediction: Packers 28, Redskins 14

Denver Broncos at Houston Texans (-9.5)

Broncos ATS: 7-5-0 Texans ATS: 6-6-0
Projected Team Totals: Broncos 16 Texans 25.5

Broncos

Opp (HOU) Pass DVOA: #25
Opp (HOU) Run DVOA: #15
Injuries to Watch DEF (HOU): CB Gareon Conley (Q) CB Bradley Roby (Q) LB Brennan Scarlett (Q) DE Carlos Watkins (Q)
Injuries to Watch OFF (DEN): OG Ron Leary (Q) RB Royce Freeman (Q) OL Connor McGovern (Q)
Key WCB matchups: None
Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks): Courtland Sutton (24%) Noah Fant (21%) Tim Patrick (14%) Jeff Heuerman (10%) Phillip Lindsay (9%) Royce Freeman (7%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 13: Phillip Lindsay (44%, 20, 3) Royce Freeman (56%, 9, 4)
QB/WTE Breakdown
The Broncos turned to rookie Drew Lock (downgrade) last week, and while his individual stats weren’t impressive, he was able to pull out a surprising win against the reeling Chargers. Lock is not on anyone’s fantasy radar at this point, least of all managers that were able to get into fantasy playoffs, so we will instead focus on how he impacts the pass-catchers in this offense.
Lock’s top target was no surprise, as Courtland Sutton (volume upgrade) continues to dominate targets in Denver. Sutton’s success was somewhat of a surprise, as he was able to account for over half of Lock’s yardage, and both of his TDs. Sutton has earned auto-start status at this point, and a matchup with the Texans helps to ease concerns around his QB play. Keep him in all lineups and hope that Lock improves heading into his second start so that the Texans aren’t able to simply double or triple cover Sutton to shut down the entire offense. Consider him a solid WR2 at this point. No other pass catcher in this offense is trustworthy in fantasy, especially with Lock at the helm, so avoid any of the names that aren’t Sutton. Noah Fant and Tim Patrick are interesting dynasty stashes, but shouldn’t be anywhere near fantasy lineups this week.
RB Breakdown
Second year RBs Phillip Lindsay and Royce Freeman continue to see an almost exact 50-50% snap split, but Lindsay has consistently seen more carries over the last 6-8 weeks. That was the case again last week as he out-touched Freeman 20-9. That has rendered Freeman completely unusable in fantasy, while Lindsay has been unable to backup his breakout rookie year. Lindsay gets the necessary volume to be in the RB2 range, but the struggles at QB, on the O-Line, and at creating scoring chances overall, have held him back significantly. Consider him a decent RB2 this week with a plus matchup - the Texans have given up the 4th most FPPG to RBs. If you are at all shallow at RB, or start 3 every week, Lindsay should likely be in your lineup.

Texans

Opp (DEN) Pass DVOA: #17
Opp (DEN) Run DVOA: #10
Injuries to Watch DEF (DEN): LB Von Miller (Q) LB Malik Reed (Q) S Will Parks (Q) LB Jeremiah Attaochu (Q) LB Alexander Johnson (Q)
Injuries to Watch OFF (HOU): WR Will Fuller (Q)
Key WCB matchups: DeAndre Hopkins vs. Chris Harris Jr. (Rotoworld)
Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks): DeAndre Hopkins (34%) Will Fuller (23%) Kenny Stills (14%) Duke Johnson (12%) Darren Fells (11%) Jordan Akins (10%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 13: Duke Johnson (68%, 14, 6) Carlos Hyde (38%, 11, 1)
QB/WTE Breakdown
The Texans became the second team to expose some of the weaknesses of the Patriots during their SNF win. Deshaun Watson (auto-start) was impressive again even facing a tough matchup, and should be in all lineups again this week. The Broncos give up the 5th fewest FPPG to QBs on the season, but have the 17th ranked pass defense by DVOA. Watson is a set and forget. Stud WR DeAndre Hopkins will likely face shadow coverage from the impressive Chris Harris Jr., but it’s virtually impossible to bench Nuk in any situation, even in a tough matchup like this one.
The bigger question is what to do with the Texans’ secondary receiving options. Will Fuller (upgrade) will likely be the beneficiary of Harris’ coverage on Nuk, as he will instead draw Isaac Yiadom. The Broncos have been stout against the pass this season, but over the past 4 weeks they are allowing the 11th most FPPG to WRs. Fuller is a risky play this week, as we’ve seen his floor is a goose-egg. He does has blow-up potential in a plus individual matchup. Consider him a risk-reward WR3 that has a solid shot at paying off. Kenny Stills (downgrade) did well last week against the Patriots, and is in play as a low-end WR3 as well, but temper expectations as the Broncos are allowing the fewest FPPG to slot-wideouts this year. He would be a dice-roll in the first week of fantasy playoffs and might be too risky of a play.Darren Fells just continues to produce at the TE position, snagging another TD last week. The Broncos are middle of the pack at defending the position, and Fells lack of volume is concerning, so he’s no more than a TD-dependent TE2.
RB Breakdown
The Texans run-game struggled against the Patriots, but pass-catching back Duke Johnson was able to create some big plays through the air. He cashed in a TD on a perfect option route in the first quarter. This week should be somewhat easier on the ground, and the game-script is projected to be favorable with the Texans as huge home favorites. That would make Carlos Hyde (upgrade standard) a more attractive play, although he is tough to trust in lineups due to his low floor and dependency on rushing TDs. Consider Hyde a mid-tier RB2 in standard leagues with a slight downgrade in PPR leagues. Johnson is an intriguing flex in PPR leagues, but a tough sell in standard leagues as his weekly touch total cannot be trusted. Ultimately both are risky, but we like Hyde slightly more this week for matchup and game-flow reasons.
Score Prediction: Texans 27, Broncos 13

San Francisco 49ers at New Orleans Saints (-3)

49ers ATS: 7-4-1 Saints ATS: 8-4-0
Projected Team Totals: 49ers 20.5 Saints 23.5

49ers

Opp (NO) Pass DVOA: #9
Opp (NO) Run DVOA: #6
Injuries to Watch DEF (NO): LB Kiki Alonso (D) LB A.J. Klein (D)
Injuries to Watch OFF (SF): WR Dante Pettis (D) TE George Kittle (Q) OT Joe Staley (Q)
Key WCB matchups: Emmanuel Sanders vs. Marshon Lattimore, Deebo Samuel vs. Eli Apple (not full projected shadow matchups, ESPN)
Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks): George Kittle (25%) Deebo Samuel (19%) Emmanuel Sanders (16%) Ross Dwelley (12%) Kendrick Bourne (11%) Tevin Coleman (10%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 13: Raheem Mostert (74%, 21, 2) Tevin Coleman (18%, 6, 1)
QB/WTE Breakdown
The Niners came up just short against the Ravens last week, and will get no reprieve heading into Week 14’s massive matchup against the Saints. SF will be operating on a short week, but are almost entirely back to full health offensively, so that isn’t much of a concern. Jimmy Garappolo (downgrade) didn’t produce much in terms of fantasy value last week, as it was the running game and the defense that kept the Niners in the game. The Saints are tough against the pass - 9th best DVOA on the season - but have been somewhat vulnerable to QBs (10th most FPPG allowed). It would be unwise to trust Jimmy G for as more than a mid-tier QB2, but the Saints have one of the few offenses that could force the Niners into a rare shootout. Still, he’s not a recommended start this week.
With Garoppolo struggling last week, no one was able to stand out in the passing game, although that was due in part to the rainy conditions and stout secondary of the Ravens. George Kittle (auto-start) remains the top target in this offense, and he remains an elite TE1 whenever healthy as he’s capable of a big week at any time. Deebo Samuel did snag a TD on a 4th down conversion in the first half, and his recent run of productive games has him firmly on the WR3 radar. It appears that Emmanuel Sanders (downgrade) is more likely to see Marshon Lattimore in shadow coverage, but Lattimore typically doesn’t travel to the slot, so that won’t be a full shadow matchup. Samuel should see a lot of Eli Apple, and while neither player has been dominant, Lattimore has shown flashes again this year of true shut down ability. Downgrade Sanders slightly into WR3/4 territory, but keep Samuel in the WR3 range. Both are risky starts for fantasy playoffs, but Deebo seems like the safer bet with a bit more upside at this point.
RB Breakdown
The Niners backfield production continues to elude most owners lineups, as last week it was Raheem Mostert who broke out for a big day. Mostert needs to be taken seriously as a fantasy option for the first week of the playoffs. He turned 21 touches into more than 150 total yards last week, and his 74% snap share dwarfed that of “starter” Tevin Coleman (volume downgrade). At this point, it’s impossible to predict what we will see this week. Plus, the Saints allow the 4th fewest FPPG to RBs on the season, so it’s a tough matchup on-paper. Mostert has probably earned low-mid RB2 status heading into the difficult matchup, whereas Coleman simply cannot be trusted in lineups in a must-win week. Matt Breida returned to full practice this week, so his likely return muddies the waters even further. It would likely be best to avoid the situation entirely in a tough matchup and a three-way timeshare, but Mostert is the favorite for fantasy value this week. It’s just tough to trust it.

Saints

Opp (SF) Pass DVOA: #1
Opp (SF) Run DVOA: #14
Injuries to Watch DEF (SF): S Jaquiski Tartt (D) DT Jullian Taylor (D) DE Dee Ford (Q) DT D.J. Jones (Q) CB Richard Sherman (Q)
Injuries to Watch OFF (NO): OG Andrus Peat (D) OT Terron Armstead (Q) RB Zach Line (Q)
Key WCB matchups: None
Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks): Michael Thomas (28%) Alvin Kamara (25%) Jared Cook (17%) Latavius Murray (9%) Ted Ginn (8%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 13: Alvin Kamara (82%, 15, 8) Latavius Murray (26%, 4, 0)
QB/WTE Breakdown
The Saints disappointed slightly against the Falcons, and Drew Brees (downgrade) threw for only 184 yards and 1 TD despite leading them to a 26-18 win. The matchup against the Niners is going to be much more challenging. They have the top ranked pass defense by DVOA and have given up the second fewest FPPG to QBs on the season. Brees deserves to be downgraded into the high-end QB2 range, and owners would do well to heavily consider an alternative option as they head into playoffs.
Currently threatening the NFL single season reception record, Michael Thomas (auto-start) is simply an unstoppable force. Keep him locked in as a high-end WR1, even in the tough matchup, as he can rack up points in so many ways and will be leaned on heavily if the Saints are to get a crucial home victory here. Ted Ginn and Tre’Quan Smith, however, should be avoided at all costs. Jared Cook is on a nice stretch of play the past few weeks, but the Niners are tough against TEs as well - fewest FPPG to the position. Cook should be viewed as more of a low-end TE1 this week, but is tough to bench with how well he’s playing and the lack of depth at the position. He likely needs to be in your playoff lineup, as he has been seeing a lot of high-quality/high-value targets of late.
RB Breakdown
It was another “floor” type week for Alvin Kamara (auto-start) last week, as he was under 100 total yards with no TDs for the fifth time this year. He has put together a decent year, but his fantasy lines have been below-average by his standards. Obviously., he needs to be in lineups again this week, even in a tough matchup, as he is capable of blowing up in any game and will score double digits even in his down weeks. Latavius Murray (downgrade) is much less attractive considering his recent lack of volume and the fact the 49ers are so stout defensively. He’s no more than a TD-dependent RB3/flex in standard leagues, and is unplayable in PPR leagues.
Score Prediction: Niners 21, Saints 17

Part 2 of 2

Part 1 Right Here: https://dfaroto.com/nfl/divisional-weekend-matchup-guide-part-1

GLOSSARY

DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average): calculates a team's success based on the down-and-distance of each play during the season, then calculates how much more or less successful each team is compared to the league average.
DVOA Pass/Run Defense Rank: Team’s NFL rank in DVOA pass or run defense so far this season. #1 means best DEF against the pass/run, #32 means worst DEF against the pass/run.
Weighted DEFENSE: is adjusted so that earlier games in the season become gradually less important. It better reflects how the team was playing at the end of the season.
ATS = Against the spread
DVOA from https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamdef/2019
What’s up fellow fantasy football connoisseurs, hope everyone had a great holiday and New Year. We are going to continue to publish our matchup guide through the playoffs for those that play DFS or fantasy playoff leagues. We will give estimated valuations of players, as well as game flow projections and possible implications of injuries or trends on those involved. Best of luck to all!

DFAroto Playoff Record for Predictions

Moneyline: 2/4
ATS: 3/4

Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs (-9.5)

Texans ATS: 8-8-1 Chiefs ATS: 10-5-1
Projected Point Totals: Texans 20.75 Chiefs 30.25

Texans

Opp (KC) Pass DVOA: #6
Opp (KC) Run DVOA: #29
Opp (KC) Weighted DEF: #9
Injuries to Watch DEF (KC): DT Chris Jones (Q) CB Morris Claiborne (OUT)
Injuries to Watch OFF (HOU): TE Jordan Akins (Q) WR Will Fuller (Q) WR Kenny Stills (Q) TE Darren Fells (Q)
Key WCB matchups: None
Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks Reg Season): DeAndre Hopkins (28%) Will Fuller (19%) Duke Johnson (14%) Steven Mitchell (14%) Kenny Stills (12) Jordan Akins (12%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Wild Card Round: Carlos Hyde (58%, 17, 1) Duke Johnson (39%, 6, 3) Taiwan Jones (3%, 1, 1)
QB/WTE Breakdown
The Texans won a back and forth overtime battle at home against the surging Bills last week in the Wild Card Round, and now travel to Kansas City to do battle with last year’s MVP. Deshaun Watson (downgrade) made the play of the game to pull out the W, but will be facing another stingy secondary in the Chiefs; they rank 6th in Pass DVOA for the year, while ranking 9th in Weighted Defense. As discussed last week in the Texans write up, this offense just isn’t the same without Will Fuller (GTD), who is again going to be a game time decision for Sunday's game. Without his speed demon wideout, Watson just isn’t an appealing option - Watson’s passer rating with Fuller jumps from 89.8 to 104.3, while his QBR goes from 64.4 to 77.3 (si.com). Watson can be considered a tournament contrarian play, but the opposing signal caller is likely the better option for Sunday’s slate - Kansas City yields just 16 FPPG to QBs and a meager 15.7 to WRs.
The entire offense struggles without their burner receiver on the field, including stud DeAndre Hopkins (volume upgrade). However, Nuk is sporting the third highest matchup advantage of receivers this week for the Divisional Round at 19%, sitting only behind Deebo Samuel and Tyreek Hill. The Kansas City corners haven’t exactly been world beaters in 2019, with Bashaud Breeland (PFF’s No. 115 CB) and Kendall Fuller (PFF’s No. 71 CB) ranking well outside the top-50. Charvarius Ward (PFF’s No. 38 CB) is the only imposing matchup, but Nuk is expected to see primary coverage from Breeland on the outside. Either way, the volume should be there for the uber talented wideout, and he can be considered a WR1, especially with Kenny Stills (Q) popping up on the injury report as well. It’s worth mentioning that if Fuller is able to go, he may make for a great dart throw, albeit an extremely risky one to health concerns - he’s got an 18% matchup advantage for the contest, 5th best for the weekend. Both Darren Fells (Q) and Jordan Akins (Q) popped up on the injury report this week, but neither were realistic options anyway - KC cedes 7.6 FPPG to the position - however, if one is able to go and the other misses, the tight end playing could be used as a touchdown dependent dart throw.
RB Breakdown
The Kansas City weakness on defense has been against the rush, a facet of the game they’ve struggled to contain all year. The Chiefs are ceding a bottom-10 128.2 yards per game on the ground, but it’s worth noting over the last 3 games of the regular season they only gave up 98 yards per game. Considering the Texans are on the road as almost 10 point underdogs, it’s very possible that negative game-script abandons Carlos Hyde and the Texans ground game. For this reason, Hyde is a fade, even in the good matchup. Duke Johnson came up huge on a couple plays last game, but just isn’t seeing the volume to be usable fantasy asset. Fade him. KC is giving up 20.8 FPPG to opposing backs.

Chiefs

Opp (HOU) Pass DVOA: #26
Opp (HOU) Run DVOA: #22
Opp (HOU) Weighted DEF: #27
Injuries to Watch DEF (HOU): S Jahleel Addae (Q) CB Keion Crossen (Q) CB Johnathan Joseph (Q)
Injuries to Watch OFF (KC): TE Travis Kelce (Q)
Key WCB matchups: None
Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks Reg Season): Travis Kelce (28%) Tyreek Hill (20%) Damien Williams (17%) Sammy Watkins (14%) Demarcus Robinson (7%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 17: Damien Williams (70%, 16, 7) Darwin Thompson (24%, 5, 1)
QB/WTE Breakdown
Kansas City is back in action this weekend against a banged up Texans team. This game carries the highest projected point total of the weekend, with the Chiefs projected to score the most points of any of the playoff teams. The Texans defense ranks bottom-10 in all three DVOA metrics, making all of the main weapons for the Chiefs attractive DFS options. Patrick Mahomes (upgrade) had a modest year due to injury, but has looked completely healthy over the back half of the season since returning. His scrambling and mobility open this offense back up, and he should be considered the QB1 for the slate. Houston cedes 19.9 FPPG to QBs and 22 to WRs.
As discussed above, Tyreek Hill (upgrade) carries the highest projected matchup advantage of the weekend at a whopping 25% (PFF), he should be locked into lineups as the WR1. Plus, the Texans corners have been essentially a disaster all season, with Bradley Roby (PFF’s No. 46 CB) being the only one to rank inside the top-50. Johnathan Joseph (PFF’s No. 59 CB) may not play again due to injury, leaving Gareib Conley (PFF’s No. 64 CB) and Vernon Hargreaves III (PFF’s No. 111 CB) to hold down the fort. Sammy Watkins has been as boom-or-bust as they come at wide receiver, clearing 100 yards receiving in only one game this season (Week 1 he went for 198!). He’s no more than a dart throw; if you choose to play him you’re hoping for the long touchdown. Unfortunately, Houston’s secondary has done a solid job of limiting explosive pass plays (20+ yards), only ceding them on 9% of plays (sharpfootballstats.com). Travis Kelce (upgrade) is fully expected to suit up despite drawing the questionable tag. The Texans have been soft against the tight end this season - giving up 8.1 FPPG to the position - Kelce is a TE1 every time he steps on the field. Fire him up. He’s the top play at the position for the Sunday slate. Mecole hardman and Demarcus Robinson are nothing more than cheap home-run fliers that have only a small chance at paying off.
RB Breakdown
The Chiefs backfield began to take clear shape in their Week 17 win, with Damien Williams (upgrade) playing 71% of the snaps and out-touching LeSean McCoy and Darwin Thompson (downgrade volume) a combined 16-5. Williams turned those touches into a 12-124-2 rushing line, adding a 4-30 line receiving for good measure. The question now is whether that clarity will carry over into their first playoff game. McCoy may have been limited in part to keep him healthy for the playoffs, and still seems to have enough juice to warrant around 10 touches. Thompson is unlikely to garner more than a handful of snaps this weekend. Williams should lead the backfield just ahead of McCoy based on his breakout game that secured the Chiefs their first round bye, but it is no guarantee. The Texans ceded the 5th most FPPG to RBs over the regular season, and finished as the 22nd ranked run defense by DVOA. They can be had on the ground. Consider Williams an upside RB2 this weekend; his floor is a bit risky considering there’s no guaranteed touch count, but his ceiling is sky high. McCoy is a risky RB3 that should likely only be played if a clear report emerges that he will be more involved this weekend. Thompson is not on the radar. If things go to plan, Williams may very well be on a lot of winning rosters this weekend. DFS players will likely know this however, making him not the greatest tourney pick if looking to go against the grain.
Score Prediction: Chiefs 30, Texans 20

Seattle Seahawks at Green Bay Packers (-4)

Seahawks ATS: 8-8-1 Packers ATS: 10-6-0
Projected Point Totals: Seahawks 21.5 Packers 25.5

Seahawks

Opp (GB) Pass DVOA: #10
Opp (GB) Run DVOA: #23
Opp (GB) Weighted DEF: #16
Injuries to Watch DEF (GB): DT Kenny Clark (Q) DT Tyler Lancaster (Q)
Injuries to Watch OFF (SEA): OG Mike Iupati (D) OT Duane Brown (Q) OT George Fant (Q)
Key WCB matchups: DK Metcalf vs. Kevin King and Tyler Lockett vs. Jaire Alexander (potential partial shadow, Rotoworld)
Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks Reg Season): D.K. Metcalf (19%) Tyler Lockett (18%) Travis Homer (7%) Malik Turner (7%) David Moore (6%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Wild Card Round: Travis Homer (69%, 12, 1) Marshawn Lynch (28%, 8, 3)
QB/WTE Breakdown
The Seahawks managed to take out the Eagles last week, in part due to a ridiculous string of bad injury luck in Philadelphia that culminated in Carson Wentz’s concussion. Regardless, Russell Wilson (slight downgrade) heads to Lambeau field to take on the Packers in the divisional round, and will try to follow up his solid 325 yard and 1 TD performance from last week. The Seahawks haven’t won in Green Bay since 1999. That’s over 20 years. This one is going to be a fun matchup. For fantasy purposes, the Packers have been above average against the pass this year - 10th ranked run DVOA and 5th fewest FPPG to QBs - so this will be a tough test for Wilson. With DK Metcalf playing at a borderline elite level at the moment, Wilson’s weapons are stronger than they seemed not too long ago. Additionally, with all of the injuries to Seattle’s running back corps, it is seems likely Wilson will likely need to carry them if they are to pull off the upset. However, the Packers are extremely susceptible on the ground - the Dolphins were the only team to allow more “adjusted line yards per rush” (Rotoworld) - meaning the Seahawks may lean on the run more this week. Consider Wilson a solid QB option this weekend, but know that the matchup is not an easy one, and the Packers vulnerability on the ground may mean fewer attempts for Wilson on Sunday.
DK Metcalf had quite a breakout last week, finishing 7-160-1 in the win over the Eagles. He consistently made plays over the top and made the coverage look foolish on his long TD reception. Tyler Lockett (upgrade) was slightly less involved, although he finished with 8 targets to Metcalf’s 9, and finished with a 4-62-0 line. The two combine for an impressive duo, and will be a huge test for Green Bay’s young secondary. There is a potential for some shadow coverage from Kevin King and Jaire Alexander, but it is far from assured and would not be a downgrade for either wideout. The Packers did a good job against receivers in the regular season - allowing the 8th fewest FPPG to the position - so it appears to be a matchup of strengths. The Seahawks will likely look to establish the run somewhat, considering the Pack’s vulnerability there, but the passing game is where they have the talent and experience at this point in the season. Consider Metcalf an upside WR2 type, and Lockett a high-floor WR2 that should see some favorable opportunities in the slot. Jacob Hollister is not an option at TE considering his lack of targets last week, and neither is David Moore.
RB Breakdown
So who exactly will be lining up in the backfield when the Seahawks look to take advantage of a plus matchup with Green Bay’s extremely subpar run defense? It will be some combination of Marshawn Lynch and Travis Homer, with Lynch expected to garner more than his eight touches from last week. Homer played the majority of the snaps, but he turned 11 rushes into just 12 yards. If Lynch is able to play closer to 40-50% of the snaps this week and get 12+ touches, he could be in line for a solid day. He also has the advantage of being the clear favorite for goal-line opportunities. The Packers were rated poorly by just about every run defense metric this year, and allowed the 9th most FPPG to RBs overall. Consider Lynch a risky but upside RB2/3 this week, with Homer more in the low-ceiling RB3/4 range. Lynch is an intriguing tourney play as he’s relatively cheap and is unlikely to be very highly owned.

Packers

Opp (SEA) Pass DVOA: #15
Opp (SEA) Run DVOA: #26
Opp (SEA) Weighted DEF: #19
Injuries to Watch DEF (SEA): DE Ezekiel Ansah (Q) S Marquise Blair (Q) DT Quinton Jefferson (Q)
Injuries to Watch OFF (GB): None
Key WCB matchups: None (Seattle CBs don’t shadow, Rotoworld)
Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks Reg Season): Davante Adams (31%) Allen Lazard (12%) Aaron Jones (10%) Jamaal Williams (9%) Jimmy Graham (9%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 16: Aaron Jones (68%, 25, 3) Jamaal Williams (27%, 8, 2)
QB/WTE Breakdown
Fresh off a hard earned bye-week, the Packers will host a Seahawks team whose defense is not quite as susceptible to the pass as to the run. Aaron Rodgers hasn’t had a great year, and although his statistical accomplishments certainly take a backseat to his goal of winning a Super Bowl, fantasy owners have a different set of priorities. Rodgers has seen neither the volume nor the efficiency that is typical for him throughout his career, and posted the worst QBR of his career this year (Rotoworld). With the run game having so much success, especially in the red zone, and the passing game scuffling, Rodgers has not been a very useful fantasy asset. This game is projected to be relatively high scoring, and Davante Adams gives Rodgers an elite asset to at least set a solid floor in place, but it would be quite a surprise to see him suddenly light up the scoreboard. Consider Rodgers on the lower end of options for the weekend; he has a solid floor but his ceiling is not overly appealing.
Adams (slight upgrade) had a 31% target share between Weeks 12 and 17, showcasing just how much Aaron Rodgers was relying on his stud wideout. The next closest player over that span was Allen Lazard at 12%, followed by two running backs. This passing offense revolves around Adams, and considering the Seahawks cornerbacks don’t travel with opposing WRs, the Packers should be able to keep Adams away from Shaq Griffin when they want (Rotoworld). Adams is one of the top plays of the weekend, and is a great bet for either 100 yards, a TD, or both. Lazard is more of a dart throw in hopes of a long TD reception, as he had in Week 17. Jimmy Graham is not a TE option this weekend, and no other WR merits any consideration. Consider Adams even at his high price, and only roll with Lazard as a low-end flier.
RB Breakdown
It appears that the Pack will have Jamaal Williams back in the fold for this matchup, making Aaron Jones (matchup upgrade) a riskier option for those looking into this backfield. In games that Williams is active, Jones averaged just 13 carries a game. However, Jones was hot down the stretch and was a big reason why Green Bay was able to beat Detroit in Week 17 and secure a first round bye. It would seemingly make sense for coach Matt LaFleur to give Jones a workhorse level volume this week, but it would be no shock to see Williams immediately back in a 50% role. Even so, Jones is the more explosive back on a per-touch basis, and is the clear leader for goal-line touches as well. Consider him one of the top RB options considering the Seahawks weakness at stopping the run. If Williams were a surprise inactive, Jones would warrant ownership in every contest. Williams himself, if active, is no more than a dart throw RB3 type this week with an uncertain workload, but a decent shot at a few catches and a TD.
Score Prediction: Packers 24, Seahawks 21

I sent this is in a message to the mods a little while back after seeing that the existing wiki was a little out of date, really centric to certain areas and tbh, not very neutral when it came to other areas. It's my no means the end of any recommendations, but considering we have a lot of questions about what to do/see/eat/drink and where to stay or live, I thought it might be helpful.
Anyway, I haven't got a response, and I'm not even sure if any of them are even still active here, so I thought I'd just drop it here and maybe somebody can get some use out of it anyway.
I'll clarify that outside of playing for one of the American football teams currently, and having previously played for another, I'm not affiliated with any organisation mentioned herein.

About Birmingham

Birmingham is the second city (don't listen to anything Manchester says!) of the United Kingdom. It is the largest and most populous city in the United Kingdom, as well as the centre of the second largest urban area after London, with a population somewhere between 1 and 1.3 million people.
Birmingham boomed from a non-descript market town to a juggernaut of a city during the Industrial Revolution in the late 1700s/early 1800s, and is called "the first manufacturing town in the world". Although the steam engine is Birmingham's most famous invention, did you know, that amongst hundreds of other things, we're also responsible for the birth of the modern chemical industry, cotton spinning, the Baskerville typeface, building societies, powdered custard, the modern postal system, medical plaster, lawn tennis, plastic, medical use of x-rays, The Lord of the Rings, and the Football League? Well now you do!
Today, we don't manufacture so much, but we're still an important city on the global stage. We're now a centre for both the public and private service industry, and one of the most important centres of finance in the country.
We form the centre of a metropolitan area, spanning from Solihull in the south east, to Wolverhampton and the Black Country in the north west, and we make up an interesting group of people. We're a city of younger than average people, and are the UK's most ethnically diverse city, with large numbers of immigrants from Ireland, South Asia, the Caribbean and China. This make up has majorly shaped the city we live in today.
Whether you're visiting for a day or two, or you're a born and bred Brummie, Birmingham is still a city that can amaze you.
And yes... it's true. We do have more canals than Venice.

Big Name Attractions

• BBC Birmingham: Visitors can book tours of their working building that take you behind the scenes of their television and radio productions. There is also a visitor centre that doesn't require booking.
• Botanical Gardens: A 15 acre selection of gardens and greenhouses containing some of the world's rarest (and in some cases, entirely unique) plants. There are also a number of exotic birds.
• Cadbury World: The world famous chocolate manufacturer was founded in Bournville. There are exhibits on the history of chocolate, the making of chocolate, the story of the Cadbury family, and if you hadn't guessed by now, a massive Cadbury shop.
• LegoLand Discovery Centre: A newly-opened, kid centric day out based entirely on the world famous, colourful bricks.
• Library of Birmingham: This striking building opened in 2013 is the largest public library in the United Kingdom, and the largest "public cultural space" in Europe and hosts a number of nationally and internationally significant collections.
• National Sea Life Centre: Even with our extensive canal network, perhaps not the most appropriate location, but still... A giant aquarium with a range of sea and river life, from sharks, to penguins, to otters.
• Sarehole Mill: A working water mill that has played a significant park in the history of both the industry and literature of Birmingham. Matthew Boulton, one of the fathers of the industrial revolution performed experiments there, and Lord of the Rings author, J. R. R. Tolkien lived just a stones throw from the mill. It is located in the Shire Country Park, named for its influence on the location of that name in the aforementioned books.
• Thinktank: A family-oriented science experience with a focus on Birmingham's manufacturing and industrial history. You can see real WWII era aircraft, steam trains, and the world's oldest working steam engine. There's also a planetarium.

Smaller Attractions

• Aston Hall: The "leading example of the Jacobean prodigy house" has a storied local history, from the Civil War-era onwards.
• Back to Backs: The "city's last surviving court of back-to-back houses". Get a feel for life amongst the common folk of the city during the population boom of the Industrial Revolution.
• Blakesley Hall: One of the oldest buildings in the city, and an archetypal example of Tudor architecture, originally owned by the famed Smalbroke family.
• Coffin Works: A restored factory that historically manufactured brass fittings, and, you guessed it, coffins, including those of famed statesmen and members of the royal family.
• Museum of the Jewellery Quarter: Step inside a "'time capsule' of a jewellery workshop" and learn about the 200+ year history of the Jewellery Quarter.
• Pen Museum: The only museum dedicated to the pen trade in the UK, learn how Birmingham became the heart of the world pen industry.
• Selly Manor: Originally the manor house of Bournbrook, it was acquired by the Cadbury family in the early 1900s and moved to be the heart of their model village, Bournville.
• Soho House: A large house containing primarily a celebration of the life of famed industrialist Matthew Boulton and his peers in the Lunar Society.
• Winterbourne House & Garden: A seven acre botanic garden of the University of Birmingham.

Food & Drink

Birmingham is a city quickly gaining a world-class reputation for food, with an exploding independent scene backed up by an enviable selection of fine dining options.
Fine Dining You may have heard that Birmingham has more Michelin-starred restaurants than any UK city outside of London, and that's (sort of, if you're including Solihull) true!
With five (strictly four) restaurants boasting a star, Birmingham has plenty for those desiring a fine dining experience.
Purnell's, ran by regular TV face Glyn Purnell, and Adam's are both located in the city centre. Simpsons is just a mile-and-a-bit outside the centre in leafy Edgbaston, and Carters of Moseley is just a little further out, in, well, Moseley. The most recently awarded star goes to Peel's, located in the Hampton Manor hotel in Hampton in Arden, a quick drive from Birmingham Airport.
But it's not all about those famous stars. There's also several restaurants that make the Michelin Guide. Asha's (Indian), Opus (European), The Wilderness (British/European), Lasan (Indian), Waters (European), The Boot Inn (European/Fusion), Opheem (Indian), Folium (British/European), and Harborne Kitchen (British/European) are all places you're almost guaranteed some good eating!
Street Food & Independents While the Michelin-club get all the plaudits, many prefer Birmingham's proud independent food scene for a cheaper, more relaxed meal.
The jewel in the crown is Digbeth Dining Club. The now three-day-a-week event sees an area in Digbeth in the centre of Birmingham closed off and populated by some of the countries finest streetfood vendors for a festival of food, drink and music. Many of the regulars have been crowned winners of something in the various country-wide streetfood competitions in recent years, and you'll get anything from Indian snacks, decadent waffles, slow cooked BBQ, and mouth-watering cheesecakes to award winning burgers. Additionally, in a very similar vein, is the much more recent Hawker Yard.
Looking for a burger? You're in luck. There's Original Patty Men (who are so renowned, Drake opted to miss out on the Brit Awards to eat their burgers) and The Meat Shack both located in the city centre that make some of the best burgers you'll ever taste, and have a great selection of beers to go with them.
Thanks to the city's impressive Chinatown, you're guaranteed some good authentic Chinese food. Our recommendation? Head to Peach Garden or Look In and order a selection of roasted meats (just look for the hanging ducks in the window, you won't miss them!)
Perhaps Birmingham's most world famous offering to the culinary world is the Balti. Named for the thin-pressed steel dish it's served in more than any particular method of cooking, the Balti is a garlic and onion heavy curry that is cooked over high heat, rather than simmering all day. If that sounds enticing to you, then I've got good news.
Birmingham is famed for the Balti Triangle, an area around Sparkbook, Sparkhill and Moseley that has an eye-wateringly high concentration of restaurants serving Indian, Pakistani and Bangladeshi food, almost all of which serving many variations of the eponymous dish. While the Balti may have spread across the entirety of the UK, it's well known that Birmingham still has the best. Looking for a recommendation? Check out Adil's, the place that lays perhaps the strongest claim to creating the dish in the first place or Al Frash. We're also locked into an ongoing battle with Glasgow as to which city created the creamy, mild curry, the Chicken Tikka Masala. Added bonus? Many of the city's balti houses are BYOB.
Outside of those mentioned, there really is something for those that want something a little different. The Karczma serves authentic Polish food in amazing decor. Bonehead is the place to go for fried chicken. If you're not feeling a full three course balti, Zindiya offers amazing Indian street food. Loaf is a co-operatively ran bakery and cookery school that offer literally the best sausage rolls in the world. Whatever cuisine takes your fancy, you will find a restaurant in Birmingham cooking it to the highest quality.
If there's anything that will force you to make plans to visit Birmingham again, it's the food.
Drinking And what d'you know, it's not just great food here, but great drink too!
In the city centre, you're spoiled for choice. There's a Brewdog bar, serving a range of beers from the eponymous brewery alongside a smorgasbord of guest brewers. Just opposite is Cherry Reds (they also have a location in Kings Heath), serving craft beers in a cafe atmosphere. Located in a former, guess what, the Post Office Vaults invites you to take a look through their "Beer Bible" and select from hundreds of beers from around the world. Purecraft serves beers from the renowned Purity Brewing Company, and the food is amazing too.
Around what was formerly a financial district, you'll find a lot of popular bars in attractive buildings, such as The Old Joint Stock, The Lost and Found and The Cosy Club. In the Jewellery Quarter, you'll find the reasonably priced 1000 Trades (usually with a pop-up dishing out great food) and further afield, the Plough in Harborne.
Cocktails more your thing? You won't miss out. The Alchemist, Fumo, Ginger's and Gas Street Social all serve proper cocktails in trendy atmospheres.
On the same street in Stirchley and Cotteridge, you will find two of the countries highest-rated off-licences. Cotteridge Wines has been voted The Best Bottle Shop in England for five years running, and Stirchley Wines, just a few minutes walk away, is held in similarly high regard. Both have been listed in RateBeer's top four locations in the country.

Sport

Birmingham is famous as a sporting city. The Football League, the world's first league football competition, was founded in 1888 by Birmingham resident, and Aston Villa director William McGregor.
Along with the aforementioned Aston Villa, Birmingham is also home to another of the oldest football teams in the country, Birmingham City. Birmingham City's Ladies play at the top level of Women's football. The football season runs between August and May.
Edgbaston Cricket Ground is home to Warwickshire County Cricket Club, but is also more prominently used for Test matches, One Day Internationals and Twenty20 Internationals. The County Cricket season runs between April and September. The Twenty20 season runs between July and September.
Birmingham and the nearby areas are home to two PGA standard golf courses; The Belfry, which has hosted the Ryder Cup more than any other venue, and the Forest of Arden, a regular host of tournaments on the PGA European Tour.
Arena Birmingham, formerly known as the National Indoor Arena, has hosted a number of World and European indoor athletics championships, and the Alexander Stadium in Perry Barr is the headquarters of UK Athletics, and the home of the Birchfield Harriers, which counts a number of elite international athletes amongst its members.
The first ever game of lawn tennis was played in Birmingham in 1859 and the Birmingham Classic, played annually at the Edgbaston Priory Club is one of only three UK tennis tournaments on the WTA Tour.
There are two professional Rugby Union teams in Birmingham and the surrounding areas. Moseley Rugby Football Club play in the National League 1, and Birmingham & Solihull Pertemps Bees play in the Midlands Premier division. The Rugby Union season typically runs between September and April.
Birmingham is also home to the oldest British American football team, the Birmingham Bulls and the most successful team in University American football, the Birmingham Lions at the University of Birmingham. The Tamworth Phoenix, the current BAFA National League champions, are located in nearby Coleshill, and the Sandwell Steelers are located in the Black Country. The BAFA National Leagues season typically runs between April and August and the University season typically runs between October and January.
The Birmingham Bandits play in the National Baseball League, the top level of competition in the country. The season typically runs between April and August.
Birmingham will host the 2022 Commonwealth Games.

Entertainment

Film For those that want to catch a movie, there is, as you might expect, a range of chain cinemas in dozens of locations across the city in which you can catch the latest release.
But if you're looking for something really special? Why not check out The Electric, the UK's oldest working cinema?
Of course, they show the latest blockbusters, but they also show classic movies and special events throughout the year.
Music Whatever your preference, there's a good bet that Birmingham has had an impact.
We have the City of Birmingham Symphony Orchestra playing at the Symphony Hall for those with a more refined ear.
There are regular jazz festivals across the city and surroundings through the year.
Perhaps you've heard of the small time bands Black Sabbath, Judas Priest, Led Zeppelin and Napalm Death? Birmingham is the home to metal, and it's an influence that is still obvious today. You'll find local bands playing the full spectrum of metal at music pubs across the city.
If you want to check out a band on tour, we've got arenas that range in size from the huge (Arena Birmingham, Genting Arena) to the more modest (Hare & Hounds, HMV Institute) and those in-between (O2 Academy).
Theatre The Repertory Theatre is the UK's longest-established "producing theatre" and the Alexandra and Hippodrome are the go-to places to see shows on tour.
Those looking for a particularly classy night out can choose from the Birmingham Royal Ballet, resident at the Hippodrome, or the Birmingham Opera Company, known for their avant garde performances in non-typical spaces.
Museums & Galleries Birmingham Museum & Art Gallery is the big one. A notable collection of Pre-Raphaelite work and the Staffordshire Hoard are probably the stand outs that it's known for, but there's a temporary exhibition space that hosts events like student exhibitions from local universities.
The Barber Institute of Fine Arts is located on the campus of the University of Birmingham, and was one of only five galleries outside London to receive five stars for having "Outstanding collections of international significance", and this relatively modest sized gallery hosts works by the likes of Vincent van Gogh, Claude Monet, Auguste Rodin and J. M. W. Turner and has one of the world's largest coin collections.
If contemporary art is more your thing, then the Ikon Gallery in Brindley Place is for you, hosting rotating exhibitions throughout the year.
The mac, located in Cannon Hill Park is an art gallery with rotating exhibitions that also hosts plays, concerts and film showings.
For further Museums & Galleries see the "Attractions" section.
Nightlife As a young city, there's plenty of places in the city to while the night away.
Broad Street is Birmingham's most well known area. It's a long street with very popular, relatively "bog-standard" bars and clubs, with large dancefloors and loud, popular music. PRYZM is the largest nightclub in the city, and Grosvenor Casino, open 24 hours, is nearby.
You'll most likely find single 18-25 year olds along this busy street just a few minutes walk from the very centre of the city.
Birmingham's Gay Village is also well established, with Nightingales being arguably the biggest name. Nearby, the Arcadian hosts a number of smaller bars and clubs.
The Jewellery Quarter offers more intimate nightlife options, and you're more likely to find a slightly older clientele sipping cocktails and listening to live bands than on their feet on a dancefloor.
Digbeth is where the cool people go in search of more underground fare. DJs and producers playing House, Techno (including the world famous "Birmingham Sound"), Dubstep, Garage and Drum & Bass congregate in the clubs in this area, catering to those that are happy to go all night. If you want to go even further off the beaten track, check out PST where you're likely to find Listening Sessions, showcasing a range of music from local producers.
Shopping The Bullring is the major shopping centre in Birmingham. It is one of Europe's largest and houses just one of four Selfridges department stores, housed in an iconic building. There are a number of stores selling fashion, cosmetics, toys and gifts and food.
The Bull Ring markets see 140 stallholders offering fresh fruit and vegetables, meats and fish, and basically every non-food item you can think of.
The Jewellery Quarter is Europe's largest concentration of businesses involved in the jewellery trade, which produces 40% of all the jewellery made in the UK.
The Great Western Arcade is a Grade II listed row of shops that cater almost entirely to independent retailers where you're almost guaranteed to find something unique.

Weather

We're a relatively temperate city, in that it rarely gets super cold, and rarely gets super hot. In the summer months, you can expect a twenty four hour swing from around 11°C(52°F) to 23°C(73°F), and in the winter months, anywhere between 0°C(32°F) and 7°C(45°F).
We get roughly 10-13 rainy days per month throughout the year.
Compared to other UK cities, we are relatively snowy, due to our inland position and high elevation, however, it rarely snows to a degree that it causes problems.

Environment

Birmingham is, perhaps surprisingly given its unfair reputation, an outstandingly green city. We have a stunning 571 parks in the city, more than any other European city.
Sutton Park is the biggest park in the city, and is Europe's largest urban park outside of a capital city. Around a quarter of the former Royal Forest is covered by ancient woodlands, and there are a number of large ponds and pools. It is relatively common to see deer and exmoor ponies in the less busy parts of the park. There are several sporting events held in the park throughout the year.
The Lickey Hills are home to a Green Flag awarded country park that offer picturesque views of the city of Birmingham, and are home to several species of deer, badgers and around ninety bird species, and some believe this favoured haunt of J. R. R. Tolkien formed the inspiration for the Shire in his famed The Lord Of The Rings series.
Cannon Hill Park is a 250 acre area consisting of woodland, grassland and several large ponds. There are areas for soccer, boating, fishing, tennis and mini-golf.

Travel

Due to its centralised location, Birmingham is well placed for transport. It is served by the M5, M6 (famed for the Gravelly Hill Interchange, more commonly known as Spaghetti Junction), M40 and M42 motorways.
Birmingham Airport (actually located in Solihull), is an international airport, with flights to and from to many destinations in Europe, North America, the Caribbean, Africa, the Middle East and Asia.
Birmingham New Street is the largest railway station outside of London and serves locations across the country. Snow Hill and Moor Street act as the northern termini for trains coming from London Marylebone.
Buses are mainly administered by National Express, and the West Midlands bus route 11, also known as the Birmingham Outer Circle, is the longest urban bus route in Europe at 27 miles, taking around three hours to complete.
Uber operates within Birmingham.

Living In Birmingham

Many times we're asked here on brum "where should I live", "is area X ok to live in", etc. Much like everything else in Birmingham, there is a lot of variety. Houses can range from cheap as chips to pretty expensive, and each area of the city has its own up and downsides. It's not so easy to divide Birmingham by distinct areas of desirability, and some of the most expensive and sought after suburbs border those that aren't as popular.

Central Birmingham

Living in central Birmingham will be similar to living in the centre of any other big city, if you've ever done that. There will always be something to do on right on your doorstep, the social opportunities are immense, and your commute can be but a short walk to the office. Of course, this is often at the expense of a smaller, more expensive property, greater noise and everywhere is pretty busy 24/7. There are a number of distinct "regions" in the city centre.
Brindley Place & Surrounding Areas Likely the priciest part of the city centre to live in, but there are often more than small flats available. Penthouses, townhouses and large apartments are more common in this area.
Average property price: Anywhere from ~£150,000 to £1m+ Brindley Place on Streetcheck
Digbeth An area still undergoing gentrification, but also a focal point for up and coming independents in business, food, arts and culture. Most, if not all, properties in Digbeth will be flats. Most of Digbeth is a five minute walk to the centre of the city.
Average property price: £158,024 Digbeth on Streetcheck
Jewellery Quarter Great for food and drink, the Jewellery Quarter, while still a stronghold in the UK jewellery industry, is fast becoming one of the "cooler" areas to live in the city. Most, if not all, properties in the Jewellery Quarter will be flats.
Average property price: ~£200,000-250,000 Jewellery Quarter on Streetcheck

North Birmingham

North Birmingham has a large swing in terms of lifestyle. Some areas closer to the city centre are more economically deprived, whereas further away, the likes of Sutton Coldfield can boast some of the most expensive and most desirable locations in the Midlands. The transport links are, to some, an attraction to living in North Birmingham, usually being just minutes from several junctions on the M6 and M5.
Aston Aston as a settlement is very old, and has a real mix of history, ranging from the medieval to Jacobean to early 1900s. Most properties in Aston are terraced houses.
Average property price: £107,137 Aston on Streetcheck
Erdington Lying between the city centre and it's more expensive neighbour, Erdington is fast becoming a desirable location for those priced out of Sutton Coldfield. There is a range of properties from detached housing to flats.
Average property price: £163,075 Erdington on Streetcheck
Handsworth An "on the rise" area that can boast perhaps the longest list of famous residents in the whole city. There are a wide range of properties from detached housing to terraced houses.
Average property price: £144,484 Handsworth on Streetcheck
Sutton Coldfield A "Royal Town" and the fourth-least deprived area in the country, Sutton Coldfield is renowned as a very affluent area with many attractions. There are a range of properties from terraced houses to very large detached houses.
Average property price: £314,808 although houses can and do regularly top £3m+ Sutton Coldfield on Streetcheck

East Birmingham

East Birmingham is home to a diverse population, and a relatively green area stretching from the city centre to neighbouring Solihull, and is quickly finding itself a niche as younger folk priced out of Solihull move to a desirable location between the leafy town and Birmingham's centre.
Bordesley Green Traditionally an area popular with immigrants, and mostly consists of terraced houses.
Average property price: £122,712 Bordesley Green on Streetcheck
Stechford Mostly terraced housing with a tonne of local ameneties and is cut almost in two by the River Cole and has a large nature reserve running through it.
Average property price: £150,085 Stechford on Streetcheck
Yardley & Sheldon An historically old suburb of Birmingham, with a dedicated conservation area and many local ameneties. There are a range of properties from detached houses to a small number of flats and apartments.
Average property price: £162,601 Yardley & Sheldon on Streetcheck

South Birmingham

The south of Birmingham is home to some of the "coolest" suburbs that are quickly gaining popularity, seated between the city centre and what you might call "countryside" towards Warwickshire.
Hall Green Encompassing much of the Tolkien trail, this suburb borders Shirley in Solihull.
Average property price: £209,923 Hall Green on Streetcheck
Kings Heath, Stirchley and Cotteridge These three closely related suburbs are quickly becoming seen as an affordable alternative to Moseley.
Average property price: £211,276 Kings Heath on Streetcheck
Moseley With a real "village" feel, there are many renowned drinking holes and eateries, with a large range of property types.
Average property price: £276,533 Moseley on Streetcheck
Sparkhill Home to a large population of immigrants, it's not surprising that Sparkhill is home to much of the famed "Balti Triangle". Most of the properties are terraced houses.
Average property price: £142,394 Sparkhill on Streetcheck

West Birmingham

As you move away from the city centre towards the Black Country, you'll come across some of the city's most sought-after locations for both young and old alike.
Edgbaston A very affluent suburb that is also home to much of the University of Birmingham campus. There are a number of very large houses, but also a large number of flats and terraced houses. Houses can and do regularly go for £1m+
Average property price: £301,851 Edgbaston on Streetcheck
Harborne A Victorian-era suburb with a large amount of terraced and semi-detached housing, located between Edgbaston and Quinton.
Average property price: £278,266 Harbone on Streetcheck
Selly Oak The majority of residents in this suburb are students at Birmingham's universities. As such, it has many transport links to the city centre. Most of the properties are terraced houses.
Average property price: £221,046 Selly Oak on Streetcheck
Quinton This green suburb basically forms the very western border of the city before you enter Sandwell and Dudley. Most properties are semi-detached.
Average property price: £258,077 Quinton on Streetcheck

Outside the city

Birmingham is part of the greater West Midlands conurbation, so it can be used as a hub for exploring the region easily.
Solihull is situated on the south-eastern edge of Birmingham. Solihull is an affluent town with a mid-sized town centre, and a number of smaller villages located more rurally.
Coventry can be reached via the M6 or A45, and is roughly a half an hour to fourty minute drive from the city centre.
Stratford-Upon-Avon, famed for being the home of William Shakespeare, is located roughly an hour away from the city centre.
Warwick, the home of Warwick Castle, is located near Royal Leamington Spa, and is about an hour by car from the city centre.
The Cotswolds, a designated Area of Outstanding Natural Beauty, can be quickly reached, anywhere from one to two hours away from the city centre.
Worcester and the Malvern Hills, a designated Area of Outstanding Natural Beauty, can be reached via the M5, around an hour and a half from the city centre.
On the western edge of the city, the Black Country, consisting of Dudley, Sandwell, Walsall and Wolverhampton can be found.
Further out west, the Shropshire Hills, an Area of Outstanding Natural Beauty can be found.
To the north of the city, Cannock Chase, a large, heavily wooded Area of Outstanding Natural Beauty is located.

It is my understanding that Kenny Dalglish will no longer be Liverpool manager by close of play tonight

from Matt Lawson. Also being reported by The Times and being picked up by everybody else, which leads me to believe there is more truth to it today than yesterday.
LFC expected to issue statement by the end of the day
Edit: and now by The BBC. oh oh.

Rolling Updates

• Ben Smith of The BBC says Kenny cancelled his planned holiday today
• First non-Twitter story at The Mirror
• Front page of the BBC now
• The Telegraphs says that he left and wasn't sacked.
• The Mirror has the first full coverage.
• His daughter confirms on Twitter (where else?)
• IT'S OFFICIAL - LFC Statement
• Rumors now that managing director Ian Ayre has also been let go. That means there is literally nobody left at LFC.
• Twitter rumors that Steve Clarke has also left, which would be a real shame - he is one of the best coaches and assistants in the Premier League
• Tony Barrett confirms that Steve Clarke has also left

Summary

• Talks in Boston didn't go well
• Kenny was offered another role at the club, which he turned down
• When he got back to the UK Kenny told some at the club that he was expecting to be released
• He cancelled his holidays today
• Liverpool expected to issue a statement at 5pm UK time

Next manager betting

William Hill (decimal $):

• Martinez 2.25
• Benetiez 3
• Rijkaard 5.50
• Rodgers 7 (just dropped from 15)
• Clarke 9
• Pardew 11
• Lambert 11
• Capello 13
• AVB 15
• Mourinho 17
• Jamie Caragher 51
• Steven Gerrard 150

Update: AVB dropped to 2-1 and now William Hill has suspended betting, I heard earlier that it was to be AVB

Rankings are made for 12 team, 1QB, PPR leagues. Injury stats come from SportsInjuryPredictor.com.
What do you think? Tell me where and why I'm wrong.

1. Le'Veon Bell PIT: has averaged 23.8 points over last two seasons(18 games). Third most difficult schedule for RBs. Fifth highest injury risk(85%) for running backs. Gets small bump over David Johnson because of handcuff reliability. Historically, Bell’s backup has been a RB1 when Bell goes down.
   
2. David Johnson: most consistent fantasy RB in 2016. Offensive line expected to be improved(26 to 17--PFF). Excluding last Week 17 where he left early with an MCL sprain, Johnson has averaged 136.6 yards from scrimmage and 4.7 receptions per game. Middle of the road schedule(15th). 33 carries inside the five-yard line over the past two seasons.
   
3. Antonio Brown : with Bryant back to prevent him from double and triple teams, I expect his numbers to be closer to his 13-15 numbers(8.9/113.7/0.8 w/ Bryant vs 7.1/93.7/0.7 w/o Bryant). Most consistent fantasy receiver 3 years in a row. Roethlisberger’s health is cause for concern, but Brown did go for 7/106 against Malcolm Butler playing with Landry Jones. Josh Dobbs, a 4th round pick, will challenge Jones for the back-up spot—worth keeping an eye on how that plays out. Low injury risk: only one game missed in past 4 seasons.
   
4. Julio Jones: new OC has talked a lot about using him more in the red zone. Freeman and Coleman combined for 24 tds last season. Expect a handful of those to go to Julio this season. Fifth hardest schedule=positive game script. Inconsistency is a weakness--4 games with less than 40 yards. 16 game pace for 95/1610/6.8.
   
5. A.J. Green: was on pace for 117(!) receptions before injury. Don’t be surprised if he leads the league in targets. Difficult to say how losses to the Bengals offensive line will affect Green: could force Bengals into passing more, but hurt the offense as a whole thus limiting Green’s scoring chances. John Ross is more complete than many give him credit for, but he still isn’t expected to be more than a deep threat while adjusting to the NFL route tree.
   
6. Odell Beckham Jr.: Arrivals of Brandon Marshall and Evan Engram will cause downtick in OBJ’s targets. He, AJG, and Julio are virtually interchangeable at 4-5-6.
   
7. Melvin Gordon: 3 down running back on above average offense. Offensive line will be better. Return of Keenan Allen could dip into MG's workload, but he's still in a great position to be a top scorer. Caught 4+ passes in last six healthy games. Lynn’s offense has guided McCoy, Chris Ivory, and others to career years. 88% injury chance in 2017 with no clear handcuff. Difficult schedule(25th for RBs).
   
8. Jordy Nelson: Top 5 WR finishes his last 3 healthy seasons. Elite offense, low injury risk. He's played 16 games in 5 of his last 7 seasons. Concerns about age are overblown. Jordy wins mostly with nuanced route running, elite hands, and body control--none of which will diminish with age. Bennett will command targets, but Cook played a major role in the offense down the stretch of last season, and Jordy's targets were never affected. Packers had easiest schedule in league last season--expect more positive game script this season. Scored on 38% of RZ targets while most elite receivers were in low 20s. That should regress, but he’s still a solid bet for double digit touchdowns.
   
9. LeSean McCoy: Will continue to be centerpiece of Bills offense. TDs likely to regress. Carries risk considering age and position, as well as his history of lower body injuries. Third most difficult schedule could lead to negative game scripts; however, he could see more usage in the pass game.
   
10. Devonta Freeman: Back to back seasons as top 6 RB. Running behind elite offensive line. Dominated goal line work. Including the playoffs, he went over 77 yards in his last 10 games. Expensive handcuff, but Coleman possesses league winning potential if Freeman goes down. Difficult schedule=negative game script.
    
11. Dez Bryant: Developed great chemistry with Dak down the stretch. 18 PPG from weeks 10-16. 10 TDs in last 11 games of season. 70+ yards in 7 out of his last 8 starts including the postseason. If you extrapolate his last eight starts out to a 16 game season it would be: 132 targets, 86 receptions, 1292 yards, and 16 touchdowns. Losses to the offensive line and absence of Elliott for 6 games will cause uptick in passes. Career low 2.8 YAC in 2016--expect that to regress. Don’t be fooled by recency bias when it comes to injuries: Bryant has played 15+ games in 4/6 seasons and is considered a low risk by sports injury predictor.
    
12. Mike Evans: Expect his targets to decline significantly in 2017. The Bucs increased their pass attempts by 7.5 percent compared to their 2015 previous season as a result of injuries to their RBs. Evans had 10+ targets in 9 out of first 11 games, but only one double digit target game in last 5 games. TDs likely to regress, scored on 42% of red zone targets--the highest in the league for qualifying players. 5 of his TDs came on long, difficult-to-repeat passes.
    
13. T.Y. Hilton: Luck’s continued absence makes him risk at the moment. Good chance at 80+ catches and 1300+ yards if Luck is healthy.
    
14. Rob Gronkowski: Double digit TDs 5/7 years, even when he only played 11 games in 2012. 15+ points in 4/5 games he played starter's snaps in.
    
15. Demarco Murray: Henry averaged 10.4 touches per game over last 5 games and was more efficient by YPC and success rate. Henry won’t outright take the job, but he capable of taking serious work from Murray. Historically, lower body injuries have given Murray a lot of trouble too. As long as Murray can stay healthy and fend off Henry, he’s locked in on a run heavy team w/ an elite offensive line.
    
16. Michael Thomas: While I don’t buy into the "Brees spreads the ball around too much" narrative, I do the ink the Saints are willing to use their best receiver as a decoy and the effect is the same. MT benefitted heavily from Cooks’ presence because it allowed him to face the opposing defenses’ no. 2 corner the vast majority of the time. After facing one of the most difficult schedules in the league last season, his schedule will be much easier this season.
    
17. Demaryius Thomas: McCoy is known for building his offense around his players strengths meaning Thomas will get more usage around the LOS with screen passes. Historically, McCoy has loved the short passing game. Broncos play league’s most difficult schedule, should lead to positive game script for the pass game. Great bet for 90+ catches.
    
18. Keenan Allen: Overstated injury risk: his main injuries have been a lacerated kidney, torn ACL, broken collarbone, PCL tear(different knee than the ACL tear). There’s really no reason to believe his injuries are correlated. Sports injury predictor only lists him as a medium risk. Allen will likely never eclipse his 2015 market share, but his current threats in the pass game aren’t too threatening. Inman is an inefficient deep threat whose numbers were solely the result of volume. Woodhead is gone. League’s most difficult schedule.
    
19. Doug Baldwin: Only had 15+ pts in 4/17 of games but did have 10+ points in 14/16 games. Scored on anomalous 40% of red zone targets, second only to Mike Evans. Offensive line woes will continue to hinder run game, helping Baldwin’s volume. In every season since his rookie year, Baldwin’s per-game targets, receptions, and receiving yards have increased. Won’t be surprised if he hits a wall this season but the upward trajectory is nice to see.
    
20. Jordan Howard: Elite offensive line. Offseason eye surgery should help his vision and beat writers have said that the team wants to use him in the pass game more. Last season he did get quite a few garbage time targets, so he is blowout proof to an extent in my mind. Regression is a concern, as his 53% success rate was only 17th in the league meaning he was fairly dependent on long runs. A lot of his value is dependent on his OL staying healthy, so he carries high risk. Can’t fall back on his talent as much as somebody like Demarco Murray can.
    
21. Jay Ajayi: Evan Silva explained it best “Reminiscent of Jeremy Hill’s 2014, Ajayi lived on the long run. Among 42 NFL backs with 100-plus rushes, Ajayi finished a startlingly low 32nd in Football Outsiders’ Success Rate. Per Warren Sharp, 23% of Ajayi’s rushing yards came on seven individual runs, and 57% of Ajayi’s runs gained three yards or fewer”. His stats were inflated by a handful of anomalous runs that are difficult to repeat. Eclipsed 90 yards in just one of his final seven games. Caught just 27 passes last season and Kenyan Drake is expected to have a role on third downs.
    
22. DeAndre Hopkins: Averaged 11.5 targets in two games with Savage. Quarterback play will continue to limit him. Of his 150 targets, just nine of them came in the red zone. If Savage or Watson exceed expectations he could be a steal given his volume, but as it stands Hopkins is a major risk. Not enough has changed about his situation for me to like him where he’s going.
    
23. Golden Tate: After slow start, averaged 6.7/85.7/.36 over last 11 games. 10+ PPR points in 10 of last 11 games. TDs should improve: 17 red zone targets last season with only one TD, and Boldin, who scored 8 times last year, is gone. Boldin’s departure also means more time in the slot, where he is best suited to rack up catches.
    
24. Amari Cooper: Faded fast for second straight year in second half of season--never had more than 76 yards in last eight games. Should benefit from positive TD regression: didn’t score on any of his 13 red zone targets. Crabtree earned ~20 targets more than Cooper for second straight year and severely handicaps Cooper’s hopes of becoming top-end receiver.
    
25. Travis Kelce: Kelce averaged 6.5/95 in 4 games w/o Maclin last season. Never been a huge TD scorer but should benefit from better TD luck with Smith's 5 rushing TDs and Tyreek Hill's 11 TDs likely to regress.
    
26. Alshon Jeffery: One of the biggest wild cards of this season. Wentz has no problem throwing his receivers open(threw highest % of passes to contested receivers last season) and will be an improvement over Alshon’s 2016 QBs. However, he faces a brutal schedule(NFC and AFC west, as well as difficult divisional schedule) and has suffered a myriad of soft tissue injuries in the past. Headed for dominant market share on pass heavy offense with departure of Matthews.
    
27. Brandin Cooks: The Patriots are a more balanced team than people give them credit for---2015 was an outlier in terms of pass attempts compared to other years, where as the Saints finished in the top two of pass attempts all three years Cooks was there. Edelman and Gronk are better competition than Thomas and Snead and there will be less attempts to go around.
    
28. Christian McCaffrey: Low TD ceiling with presence of Cam, Stewart, Benjamin, Funchess, and Olsen. Expect him to have an active role in the pass game--the ‘Cam doesn’t throw to RBs’ argument is bad; Cam hasn’t had any RB receiver of McCaffery’s merit. Better fantasy talent than Fournette due to his pass catching ability. I think people have bought into the ‘Stewart will keep his role’ reports too much. Stewart wasn’t efficient last year. The Panthers spent a top ten pick on McCaffrey. McCaffrey was one of the most dominant college running backs ever. McCaffrey has been the star of the Panthers camp and has out-touched Stewart with the first team unit in both preseason games. Besides, McCaffrey’s not a volume-dependent player so it's not the end of the world if Stewart takes some early down work. His points per touch will be sky high because of his pass catcher and big-play ability.
    
29. Todd Gurley: Has only gone over 100 total yards in 2 of last 23 games. Last year’s increased usage as a receiver are promising, but the Rams brought in Lance Dunbar, a passing game specialist expected to play a role in 3rd down/garbage time situations. Gurley’s been TD dependent his entire career for the most part on a bad offense. Whitworth acquisition is a good start, but left tackles typically have a bigger impact on pass game than run game. Still a below-average run blocking unit as a whole.
    
30. Ezekiel Elliott: Scored a TD on 31% of his red zone carries which was the highest in the league by a fairly large margin. I expect that to regress and average receiving production makes him TD dependent in some cases which isn't ideal for PPR. Offensive line likely won't be as dominant this season---no. 2 last year, no. 9 this year according to PFF. Won’t return till week 8 assuming suspension stands.
    
31. Stefon Diggs: On 16 game pace for 103 receptions last season. In June, Diggs said he was "never the same" after suffering groin injury in Week 4. He went over 100 yds in two of the three games prior to the injury. The Vikings won’t throw as much with a healthy offensive line and addition of Cook, but I expect him to continue to thrive in Shurmur’s intermediate passing game.
    
32. Michael Crabtree: Prone to brutal duds(5 games with less than 31 yards), but otherwise a good value at where he’s being drafted. Back to back years with 85+ catches and 8+ TDs. Consistent red zone threat---among league leaders in red zone targets. As durable as they come, has played 16 games in 4 out of 5 seasons.
    
33. Leonard Fournette: Better option in standard leagues than PPR leagues. Jaguars want to become run oriented, defensive team given their continued additions the defense and OL. Game flow is still a major concern with Jaguars projected to be 6.5 win team and Yeldon handling 3rd down/garbage time work.
    
34. Martavis Bryant: Averaged 17.2 PPG in 2015. Positive offseason reports regarding his commitment to football. Elite talent. High risk: statistically, players suspended for substance issues have a 50 percent chance of being suspended.
    
35. Lamar Miller: High floor as BOB insisted on feeding him despite inefficiency. 15+ touches in all but one game. Ceiling is limited by poor offensive line play(29th in league per PFF) and poor QB play. Foreman, a 235 lb rookie, poses serious threat to Miller’s goal line work.
    
36. Aaron Rodgers: If you’re going to take a QB early(which I don’t recommend), Rodgers is the way to go. Top 2 QB in 4 of last 5 seasons with healthy Jordy Nelson.
    
37. Dalvin Cook: Concerns about Vikings line are overblown. Alex Boone was the only preseason starter to play 14+ games. Now, they've added Mike Remmers and Riley Reiff--both are average players but significant upgrades compared to who they were throwing out there last year. PFF had the Vikings line 29th last season and ranked them 14th this season. Initially had him ranked in the 60s over pass protection concerns, but Shurmur has been very positive about his pass pro and Cook protected well in the preseason.
    
38. Allen Robinson: Was heavily dependent on garbage time in 2015 and his numbers declined in 2016 partially due to his dwindling garbage time opportunities. Expect that to continue to be a problem with the Jaguars continued defensive and run game improvements. Bortles is among the worst starting quarterbacks in the league.
    
39. Davante Adams: Likely headed for significant TD regression--scored on 35% of his red zone targets last season which was among highest in league. Frequently bailed out by TDs last year--only had 45+ yards in 7/16 games.
    
40. Joe Mixon: Closest player to Le’Veon Bell we’ve seen in recent drafts, but his situation is woeful. League’s worst offensive line according to PFF. Giovani Bernard is expected to retain 3rd down role and Jeremy Hill is expected to be short-yardage/grinder. Extremely difficult for players who don’t score a lot of TDs and don’t catch many passes to be productive.
    
41. Isaiah Crowell: Gameflow will continue to be major issue: only five games with 16+ touches last season--basically impossible for him to be consistently productive with that volume. It’s true that the Browns have an elite o-line, but they had an above average run blocking unit last year and still never ran the ball consistently. 4.8 YPC is deceiving as his success rate was only 40th in the league among qualifying players meaning he was very dependent on long runs that are unlikely to repeat. Duke Johnson is the third down back. Browns are one of the worst teams in the league and Johnson is the garbage time back, not Crowell.
    
42. Greg Olsen: Top-7 fantasy TE 5 straight years(Evan Silva). Has missed just two games over his 10 year career. Unimpressive at the end of last season(TE9 over last five weeks), will benefit from healthy Cam.
    
43. Jordan Reed: Offers similar ceiling to Gronk/Kelce at cheaper price due to injury concerns. Has averaged just 11.5 games per season in his career and suffered 6 documented concussions in his career. Back to back seasons as the top TE on a per game basis.
    
44. Jarvis Landry: Miami is a run heavy, low volume offense(31st in passing attempts) that wants to take the ball out of the QB’s hands as much as possible. After Ajayi became a starter in week five, Landry only received double digit targets twice the rest of the season after receiving double digit targets in each of the first four games. Additionally, the Dolphins coaches and beat writers have had nothing but praise for DeVante Parker this offseason. Parker is unquestionably more physically gifted than Landry and now that he's taking care of himself it's not hard to imagine Parker having a larger role in the offense. Landry and Parker could probably coexist if Landry wasn’t so volume dependent. The fact that the Dolphins have been completely ambiguous to Landry’s impending free agency probably isn’t a good indication for him.
    
45. Tom Brady: Addition of Cooks helps. QB3 last season.
    
46. Willie Snead: third easiest schedule for slot receivers after facing one of the most difficult last season. Destined for more targets following Cooks’ departure.
    
47. Pierre Garcon: Virtually no competition for targets on bad team bound to be playing from behind often. As far as bad QBs go, Hoyer is one of the best. He’s helped Josh Gordon, DeAndre Hopkins, and Cam Meredith put up great numbers. Garcon thrived in Shanahan’s system in WAS. Faces brutal schedule the first month(CAR, @SEA, LAR, ARI), I’ll be trying to buy low in October if I don’t draft him. Low TD ceiling, has yet to score more than 6 times in a season. One of the easiest schedules in the league after September.
    
48. Bilal Powell: Significantly better than Forte when he was given the opportunity. Forte did outtouch Powell when healthy, but Powell really only needs 15 touches a game to be productive given his pass catching ability. Would recommend pairing him with Forte as a handcuff and just seeing how it plays out. Terrible receiving corps=more touches for Powell.
    
49. Larry Fitzgerald: Will be 34 when season starts. Faded sharply late in the season---went for less than 43 yds in 3 out of last 4 games. Low week to week ceiling, but good for 10-15 points every week except for the last month. Will benefit from having healthy Carson Palmer.
    
50. Danny Woodhead: pass heavy offense. Terrance West is a replacement level back running behind below average line. 75+ receptions his past two healthy seasons. 7+ TDs his past three healthy seasons--West will take goal line work, but it’s not hard to imagine the Ravens using Woodhead in the red zone. Health concerns as an undersized 32 yr old RB that has missed significant time in 2 out of 3 seasons prevent Woodhead from being higher.
    
51. Jeremy Maclin: Ravens have led NFL in pass attempts 2 straight years and are missing Pitta(119 targets) and Smith(103 targets). Maclin was dealt multiple injuries last season including a torn groin, so I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt for his poor performance. 85+ catches his past two healthy seasons. Perriman and Wallace are both mostly deep threats. Maclin will roam the intermediate areas vacated by Pitta. Trestman is gone, but the Ravens still have a bad line and underwhelming between the tackles running backs that will force them into passing often. Flacco’s back a concern. Historically, Mornhinweg’s no.1 receivers haven’t had dominant market shares; however, I’d argue the gap between Maclin and the Ravens’ other receivers is greater than the gap between Morninweg’s no. 1 and no.2 receivers in the past.
    
52. Sammy Watkins: Projected to miss 4.5 games by Sports injury predictor. Highest injury risk in the league among receivers. Low volume offense with bad quarterback. As talented as Watkins is, he’s only averaged 4 ec/gm in his career. More of a deep threat, not a volume pass catcher.Risk not worth relative upside.
    
53. Jamison Crowder: Reed/PryoDoctson pose understated threat to targets. I don’t anticipate his role growing as much as others think. Still, he’s the favorite to lead WAS in targets.
    
54. Julian Edelman: Volume dependent player with even more competition with the addition of Cooks. Projected to miss 5 games by SIP.
    
55. Mark Ingram: I’m a big fan of backfield drafting the Saints with Ingram and Kamara and shorting Peterson. Ingram has been a consistent RB1 on a per game basis over the last three seasons, averaging more than 15 PPG. I think the Saints are going to find out that, as talented at Peterson is, he’s very limited because of his pass game deficiencies.
    
56. Marshawn Lynch: One beat reporter speculated that the Raiders will try to keep Lynch under 200 carries. While that estimate is definitely on the low side, it’s not surprising that they’d want to limit his carries considering his age, capable backups, and that he hasn’t played at a high level since 2014. Very real chance at 10+ TDs given the Raiders status as an elite offense and that Murray went for 12 last season. Richard and Washington present very real threat to Lynch’s value. They were both efficient and productive in the pass game.
    
57. Drew Brees: has finished as a top-three fantasy quarterback during seven of the past 11 seasons.
    
58. Terrelle Pryor: Not sure how good of a player he is. 40th best WR according to PFF. 60th in DVOA. Extremely inefficient and his production last season was largely a result of volume. Many of his best games of the season game with Coleman out and Hawkins as his best competition. Crowder, Reed, and Doctson limit target ceiling. Elite size/speed combination, so he will be valuable deep threat for Cousins, but I expect him to be a lot closer to 60 catches rather than 80+. Browns had one of the easiest schedules for WRs last season. This season, the Redskins face AFC and NFC west, as well as a difficult divisional schedule. Teams have had an offseason to study his limited route tree.
    
59. Emmanuel Sanders: Will probably outplay this position from an end of the year perspective, but inconsistency and a ‘meh’ ceiling are why he’s here. Eight games with less than 50 yards, but if you take him with the assumption that you’re only going to be starting him for favorable matchups then he’s a fine WR2/3. 75+ catches 1000+ yards each of the past two seasons despite poor QB play. Should benefit from change to McCoy’s offense.
    
60. Ty Montgomery: For a former WR, he caught a surprisingly low amount of passes(never more than 4 in second half of season). Pass protection, Montgomery’s biggest weakness, happens to be Jamaal Williams’ biggest strength. Low touchdown upside with Packers preference to throw the ball at the goal line. Since 2010, Packers running backs have only had more than 4 rushing TDs twice(Lacy in ‘13 and ‘14)
    
61. Tyreek Hill: Disagree with the Cordarrelle Patterson comparisons, he has legitimate route running ability as shown by the Reception Perception on him. With that being said, I question his ability to be a no. 1 receiver now that he’ll be facing every team’s best CB in a brutal division and teams have had a full offseason to prepare for him. Bound for TD regression with only 4 of his 12 TDs coming from inside the red zone. Alex Smith has produced only two top-24 WRs in his entire 11-year career. Hill is the second option on a low volume offense with serious question marks about whether he can be a number one receiver. Wasn’t an actual no. 1 receiver in college.
    
62. Theo Riddick: 6 TDs in 10 games--expect that to regress. 10+ points in all but one game. 4+ catches in all but one game. Expect him to have same role even with Abdullah healthy.
    
63. Carlos Hyde: No shortage of red flags: bad offense, not a great pass catcher on team that projects to be playing from behind often, has struggled to stay healthy in the past, difficult schedule, running behind 27th best offensive line in league. The threat of Joe Williams is overstated, the talent is real, and he’s in a great offensive scheme, but the bust risk is sky high.
    
64. Brandon Marshall: Not sure how to feel about him. Less than 800 yards in 2 out of 3 seasons. Eli, with all of his flaws, could be the best QB Marshall has had in his career. Will face every team’s no. 2 corner. Volume is high enough for him to be fantasy viable.
    
65. Kyle Rudolph: TE2 last season. 10+ points in 13/16 games. 15+ points in 8/16 games. Scheme change contributed to breakout. Vikings won’t pass as much with healthy line and addition of Cook but still severely undervalued at 8th round ADP.
    
66. DeSean Jackson: Boom/bust receiver. Jameis loves the deep ball; no receivers were targeted deep more than Mike Evans last season. Better pick in MFL10s than week to week leagues but still a good value if you’re willing to roll with his inevitable duds.
    
67. Jimmy Graham: 900+ yards in his last 4 healthy seasons.
    
68. Andrew Luck: Low floohigh ceiling. Has a QB1 finish under his belt, but the shoulder becomes a bigger concern everyday.
    
69. Spencer Ware: Scored just 3 rushing TDs on 27 red zone carries--expect that to regress positively. Kareem Hunt has earned first team work in camp and will cut into his passing down work at the very least. Rated as high injury risk, projected to miss 3.3 games.
    
70. Devante Parker: Miami threw second fewest passes in the league last season. Jarvis Landry will still hog targets. Cutler’s downfield aggressiveness along with the positive offseason reports boost Parker, but I still don’t view him as a high ceiling fantasy prospect.
    
71. Zach Ertz: TE3 last season. Target hog, limited success in the red zone. Has yet to score more than 4 TDs in a season. Back to back 75+ reception seasons. Matthews and DGB’s combined 191 targets are gone.
    
72. Tevin Coleman: Touchdowns likely to regress significantly. Just 3 carries + targets inside 5 yards. Scored once every 89 touches as a rookie and once every 13.5 touches last season. League winning potential if Freeman goes down. Can be difficult to predict on week to week basis, but he is expected to have a bigger role in the pass game which will make him more consistent.
    
73. Kelvin Benjamin: He’s not very good: back to back inefficient seasons. Failed to reach 10 points in 7/16 games. Funchess has reportedly outplayed him in camp.
    
74. Matt Forte: Averaged 21.2 touches per game over first 10 games. With the Jets sheer lack of receivers and Powell+Forte’s passing game prowess, they can both be fantasy relevant
    
75. Frank Gore: Back to back inefficient years. Expect 3rd rd rookie Marlon Mack to have a role, especially in the pass game. Complete anomaly as a 34 yr old starting RB. Colts will miss starting center Ryan Kelly for 6-8 weeks.
    
76. Donte Moncrief: Scored TD in 7/9 games. TD dependent throughout his career, has gone over 55 yards just once in his last 14 games.
    
77. Eric Ebron: 7th among TEs in rec yds/game. On pace for 72/840 over 16 games. Lions basically used Boldin as TE around goal line. Ebron arguably benefits most from his departure.
    
78. John Brown: TD/big play dependent deep threat coming off injury riddled season.
    
79. Corey Coleman: Elite talent in offense with favorable game script. Has missed practice with plethora of different injuries since being drafted by the Browns. Stock moves down if Osweiler wins starting job.
    
80. C.J. Anderson: Team openly wants RBBC. Has gone over 100 total yards in just 4 of his last 22 games. Mediocre talent running behind one of league’s worst OLs. High injury risk: 75% chance of injury, projected to miss 3 games. Dennison to McCoy is a downgrade for Anderson as Dennison has always skewed towards the run game while McCoy runs more of a balanced/pass-first attack.
    
81. Duke Johnson: Ideal late round back: provides immediate value as a satellite back with potential to be a RB1 if Crowell goes down. I think Crowell’s YPC last season severely overestimate his ability and expect Johnson to get more work as the more efficient back(especially considering the relentless praise Jackson has had for Johnson).
    
82. Doug Martin: Two RB1 fantasy seasons and three seasons outside the top 40 RBs in his career. Suspended for first three games. Listed as starter on Bucs depth chart. Rodgers and Sims/McNichols will both have role in offense. Risky pick in the sixth round. Bucs have 27th best OLine in league per PFF.
    
83. Ameer Abdullah: Riddick significantly limits PPR upside. Below average line gets worse with loss of Taylor Decker for the year. Team has shown preference for passing in the red zone.
    
84. Russell Wilson: 24th in consistency for QBs. High week to week ceiling.
    
85. Tyrell Williams: Locked into no. 2 role for time being following injury to Mike Williams. Difficult to imagine him eclipsing 120 targets again with return of Keenan Allen. Brutal schedule. WR2 potential if Allen misses time once again.
    
86. Mike Gillislee: Most efficient back in the league by DVOA last season, still Burkhead is ‘on track’ to be starter. Probably a committee situation. Not a pass catcher.
    
87. Kareem Hunt: Chiefs’ satellite back, pushing Ware for early down work. Ware rated as high injury risk, projected to miss 3.3 games. Reid has averaged 95.4 targets to the RB position per season.
    
88. Cam Newton: Top 8 QB on a PPG basis in 4 out of 5 seasons including a no.1 finish. McCaffrey is one of the best receiving backs to come out of college in many years. Worth paying attention to Cam’s health, some have questioned whether he’ll be good to go for week 1.
    
89. Eric Decker: Underappreciated talent in bad situation. Fierce competition for targets on low volume offense(5th fewest pass attempts last season). Expected to play in slot for Titans. Titans used formations featuring three or more wide receivers on a league-low 44 percent of snaps(Warren Sharp).
    
90. LeGarrette Blount: High TD ceiling. Elite offensive line. Sproles will take passing down work. TD dependent. Better value in standard leagues than PPR leagues.
    
91. Matt Ryan: Finished better than QB7 once in his career.
    
92. Kenny Britt: Unexciting value pick. 10+ points in 11/15 games. Browns passed 31 more times than Rams in 2016. The 2017 Browns QBs (probably) won’t be worse than Goff.
    
93. Alvin Kamara: Similar to Duke Johnson, he’ll have immediate value as satellite back with potential for early down work giving him a high ceiling. Will start in Cadet role. Ingram has missed at least 3 games in 4 out of 6 seasons. Peterson is 32 and a poor fit for the Saints offense.
    
94. Paul Perkins: Replacement level talent running behind below average line on team that isn’t committed to run game. Vereen caps receiving upside.
    
95. Tyler Eifert: averaged 6.75 missed games per season in his career. Hasn’t been a volume pass catcher up to this point: TD dependent.
    
96. Robert Kelley: Averaged 12.8 PPG as a starter. 10.2 if you don’t include on 3 TD game. He’s not particularly talented(2nd percentile SPARQ score, mediocre efficiency behind solid OL on good offense) and Chris Thompson has the passing down work on lockdown. However, Kelley has a firm grip on the starting job and averaged 18 touches per game over last 8 games. Volume like that should not be scoffed at.
    
97. Darren Sproles: Spot starter suited for games where Eagles are projected to be playing from behind. Best games of the season came against PIT, ATL, GB, and CIN.
    
98. Randall Cobb: Has one top 15 WR finish in his career. Crowded competition for targets between Nelson, Adams, and Bennett. High TD ceiling given Packers propensity for throwing near goal line.
    
99. Derrick Henry: Averaged 10 touches a game over last 5 games of the season. Enough to be a headache for Murray owners, not enough to have independent value without catching passes. League winning potential if Murray, who has historically struggled with lower body injuries, goes down but otherwise overvalued at the moment.
    
100. Cameron Meredith: Averaged 3.75/52/.25 in four games w/o Jeffery. Glennon is a downgrade from Hoyer.
     
101. Martellus Bennett: One top-14 TE finish on a PPG basis in his career. Competing with Nelson, Adams, Cobb. High TD ceiling.
     
102. Adrian Peterson: Below average pass blocker and receiver on the most pass heavy team in football. Has gone over 100 total yards once in his last 8 games. With Ingram and Kamara present, he’s likely TD dependent on a team that passes in the red zone more than any other team.
     
103. Marvin Jones: Began to receive additional attention from defenses following week 3 breakout, struggled heavily with press coverage. Should receive more opportunity in 2017 following Boldin departure.
     
104. Kirk Cousins: Top ten QB back to back years. Excellent weapons between Reed, Pryor, Crowder, and Doctson. Run game will continue to be bad resulting in more passing.
     
105. Giovani Bernard: Averaged 12.5 PPG last season. Consistently one of the better satellite backs in the league, no indication his role will change with addition of Mixon.
     
106. James White: Better pick for best ball formats. Difficult to project when the White games will be. Conventionally, it’s when they play strong run defenses, but White only averaged 3 rec/game in the Pats three games against top ten run defenses.
     
107. Adam Thielen: Stats inflated by one 200 yard game. Failed to reach 10 points in 8/16 games. Relatively high ceiling if Diggs continues to struggle with injuries. Averaged 13.5 in 3 games Diggs missed.
     
108. Eddie Lacy: League’s worst offensive line, second string RB, and he’s still fat.
     
109. Matthew Stafford: Quality low end starter. Back to back years as top 8 QB.
     
110. Marcus Mariota: Value boosted by additions of Decker and Davis. High efficiency on low-volume offense.
     
111. Jordan Matthews: Goes from high volume offense with terrible competition to low volume offense with terrible competition. Tyrod is marginally better than Wentz.
     
112. Jameis Winston: QB17 from week 10 on last season. Bucs are committed to being a run team.
     
113. Delanie Walker: Decline from last season should continue with additions of Decker and Davis. Borderline TE starter.
     
114. Derek Carr: On a PPG basis, he has yet to finish better than QB17. One of league’s most difficult schedules.
     
115. DeAndre Washington OAK: Split backfield with Jalen Richard when Murray missed time last season. Beat writers have anticipated the Raiders limiting Lynch’s workload, and Washington would be the primary beneficiary as a COP/satellite back.
     
116. C.J. Prosise: Talented + efficient player in crowded backfield. Historically, the satellite back on the Seahawks hasn’t been a very rewarding position.Home Run pick.
     
117. Zay Jones: 94th percentile sparq score. Possibly the longest tenured starting Bills receiver with Boldin and Matthews both arriving within the last few weeks. Played in gimmicky offense, serious concerns about his ability to separate in the NFL.
     
118. Ted Ginn Jr.: One dimensional deep threat on pass heavy offense. Better suited for best ball formats.
     
119. Tyrod Taylor: Has finished 18th and 16th in FPPG. Has averaged 4.9 less PPG w/o Sammy Watkins.
     
120. Corey Davis: similar to Decker, he’s a talented player in a crowded situation on a low volume offense. Rookie receivers don’t have a great track record, and his situation leaves a long to be desired.
     
121. Mike Wallace: Wheels came off for Wallace in the second half of the season, never going for more than 62 yards in the last 8 games. Maclin and Woodhead are both significant threats to his volume.
     
122. Hunter Henry: Overvalued. Gates played majority of snaps in all but one of his healthy games game. Henry scored 7 TDs on 16 red zone targets, expect that to regress.
     
123. Dak Prescott: Last year’s QB9. Unlikely to rush for 6 TDs again, faces difficult schedule.
     
124. Cole Beasley: Slot receiver who earned Dak’s trust early. Averaged 16 PPG in 3 games without Dez. Better deployed in best ball leagues.
     
125. Paul Richardson: Averaged 10.5 PPG over last 4 games once he was finally given starts snaps. Excellent metrics: 91st percentile college dominator rating, 98th percentile breakout age. Star of Seahawks training camp.
     
126. Marlon Mack: Fourth round rookie. Will have immediate role as satellite back. Gore is 34 and hasn’t been efficient for back to back seasons. Mack can take the job if he’s up for it. Training camp/preseason standout.
     
127. Jacquizz Rodgers: Doug Martin suspended for four games. Favorite for early down work during Martin’s suspension, Sims/McNichols will compete for passing down work. Unlikely to be fantasy viable once Martin returns. 15+ points in 4 out of his 5 starts last season. Solid zero RB candidate.
     
128. Jonathan Williams: League winning potential if McCoy(who is projected to miss 5.3 games) goes down or is traded, unlikely to have standalone value as Shady’s sidekick.
     
129. Latavius Murray: Mediocre(at best) talent. Likely goal line back for the Vikings.
     
130. Samaje Perine: Fat Rob is the starter. Chris Thompson took about 40% of the snaps and has a clear role as the passing down back. Nothing special talent wise, seems like a committee back to me. Severely overdrafted at his 8th round ADP.