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2020 r/baseball Power Rankings -- Week 5: Lots of Movement Outside of Top 3, D'Backs Bite Back, Mets Do Not Enjoy Their Week, Bird Report: Orange Good, Blue Neutral, Red MIA but Returns Next Week!

Hey Sportsfans — it's time for Week 5 of baseball's 2020 Power Rankings — Five weeks and we are not any closer to understanding what's going on this season or maybe I've just watched too many Giants games. Please enjoy these powerful rankings.
The Cardinals are banished again but they will be returning next week if all goes as planned.
Every voter has their own style / system and the only voting instructions are these:
"To an extent determined individually, you must take into account how strong a team is right now and likely to be going forward. You must, to some degree, give weight to the events and games of the previous week."
TRANSPARENCY: this link will show you who voted each team where and has added neat statistics!
If something is a little messed up, feel free to pester me let me know.
Total Votes: 30 of 30. A perfect vote!
# Team Δ Comment Record
1 Dodgers 0 Resistence is futile. All must bow down to your leader, Mookie Betts. Fun Fact: Frank Robinson is the only man to ever win an MVP in both the American League and the National League. I don't know about y'all, but I'm starting to think he has a pretty good shot at finally getting some company 16-7
2 Yankees 0 From a semi-disappointing 8 game 5 loss week to a pleasant 5 game 5 win week, the Yankees look strong again. This roster feels like it is too brittle to handle the rigors of a difficult travel schedule, what with Judge, Giancarlo and DJ out. Even more telling is the 9-0 Home record (obviously best in the league). Upcoming this week is the remainder of the homestand for four games against the Rays and Sox, and then a "road trip" to Citi Field. 15-6
3 Athletics 0 The 2020 A's are excelling in several areas- dingers, walks, and "stupid clutch" hits beyond the 8th inning. Matt Olson has 8 HR's, 4 1Bs, 2nd lowest average on the team. Laureano got his suspension knocked down but sat out the weekend. Which left Canha, Piscotty, and Robbie Grossman with his 1.007 OPS/4 steals to carry on. We lost to the Trout's 0-6 TUE, our first shutout. We haven't lost since, and assailed the poor SF closer with 2 historic, yet eerily inevitable comebacks. My first reaction is not triumph, but empathy, because this years SF club has similar failings of the 2015 A's and boy, was that hard to muddle through. 3 game crapshoot playoff round looming? oh, fun 16-6
4 Twins +1 https://i.redd.it/hjkta6tzjdh51.jpg 14-8
5 Cubs +1 Losing three one-run games in a row against the Brewers was painful and familiar. I personally am not reading too much into it, since one run games tend to be coin flips. Craig Kimbrel also looked great in his two most recent outings. This week the Cubs play the Cardinals five times in three games and hope to put some more distance between themselves and the rest of the division. 13-6
6 Rays +3 Is your offense struggling? Water cold? Flappy parts not what they used to be? Sounds like you need a trip to historic Fenway Park, where you can put up 8+ runs a game and revitalize. Some players have even declared the Rays the #1 team in baseball. The Rays capped off a 6-1 week, led by Brandon Lowe (pronounced Lowe) with 4HR, a wRC+ of 297 (205 on the season), and 0.9 WAR. The surge in offense covered up pitching that wasn't at it's best, but they got the job done when it mattered. Oh, the Rays also lead the AL in Runs scored now. Neat! 14-9
7 Braves -3 sigh We are severly banged up with Acuña and Albies on the shelf. Big City returns this week as a bench bat/DH, but we need someone to step up and STOP STRIKING OUT. Starting pitching is a big issue execpt Fried who is a bonafide ace. A 2-4 week seems pretty damn succesful considering we took a series from the first place Marlins(?!). u/ebennett sums it up: Be quiet, I think he is gonna say something. 13-10
8 Indians -1 Tribey learned how to hit...uh oh! Sorry, I just watched Happy Gilmore. But seriously, adding some much-needed offense to an already-amazing pitching staff is the key to the Tribe overtaking the Twins in the ALC. Even losing aces/douchebags Plesac and Clevinger to the DL (Dumbass List) the rotation didn't skip a beat, folding in sixth man Adam Plutko with some off-days to make it seem like nothing even happened 13-9
9 Rockies -1 Maybe the Rockies are who we thought they were? The bullpen is in serious trouble after losing, Oberg, Davis, potentially Carlos Estevez and Jairo Diaz walking the world. Rockies will need Daniel Bard to be more than a feel good story for the rest of the season. Also, isn't it just super cool that Mookie Betts is a Dodger for eternity??? Last week: 2-4 Next week: 2 vs HOU 2 @HOU & 3 @LAD 13-8
10 Astros +1 Kyle Tucker saved us from yet another extra inning game this season and for that we are eternally grateful. Offense starting to come around a little bit, but pitching is still our glaring weak spot. Blake Taylor is a beast and I will not hear otherwise. 11-10
11 Padres -1 Here’s a cherry picked stat for ya: In the last five games, the Pads have only scored 3 runs between innings 1-5, meaning 3 runs in 25 total innings. Sunday ended a poor week with awful runner in scoring position numbers, and Tommy Pham having to leave the game during an at bat that ultimately culminated in San Diego’s final out. What does it all mean? We’ve dipped under .500 for the first time this season, free falling on a five game skid. The club will look to rebound at home versus Texas, and Houston, which is a city in Texas. 11-12
12 Brewers +1 A 10-10 record isn't great, especially when they've scored the fourth fewest runs. However, the bats appear to be waking up and the pitching isn't cooling off. Hat tip to ESPN for calling this out: Milwaukee designated hitters enter Monday hitting a combined .154/.214/.333. 10-10
13 White Sox -1 The White Sox have to be one of the most frustrating teams this year. They're 500, just like they were last week. After a couple days off, they came out extremely flat in a DH against the Cards and lost both. And then they hit 4 back to back homers the next day. For a team that was expected to hit, they have a bottom 5 BB/K ratio and near the bottom third of runs scored this year. But at the same time, still 500 and currently a playoff team. This team, I don't know man. 11-11
14 Nationals +1 7(2.7) - 11(2.7) ≈ 19-31 8-11
15 Reds -1 The Reds are in the midst of their second Covid crisis of the season, as an unnamed player (speculated to be Nick Senzel) has tested positive. There doesn't seem to be any teamwide outbreake, but we all know how quickly these things can change. Still, the team is hopeful they can play on Tuesday. As for the actual baseball we saw, they split with a couple awful teams but looked alright doing it. Jesse Winker and his neck are on a tear, and the bullpen looks better, in no small part to new addition Tyler Thornburg. 9-11
16 Phillies +1 The Phillies once again had a confusing week. They got swept by the Orioles but pretty much dominated the Mets. The bullpen has looked...better, even servicable in the past three games. The rotation has been solid, led by Cy Young candidate Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler. The offense scored 48 runs this week, led by MVP candidates Bryce Harper and JT Realmuto. The division is still in reach, and the Phillies should be in dcent shape to make a run for it. #ResignJT 8-9
17 Orioles +3 Mid August and the Orioles are a playoff team...what the hell is happening? I would say it's really good hitting or really good pitching, but the team ERA is above 4, their hitting though is tops in MLB in a bunch of categories. I guess this team doesn't realize they aren't suuposed to win. If you bet the over on total wins in Vegas this year then you'll get your winnings soon. Also if this was a full season Dylan Bundy would be on pace for a 21-7 record...ugh. 12-9
18 Marlins 0 Well our lack of depth and replacement players are starting to show. Only thing that has not declined drastically is SP. Thankfully all 17 covid players have been cleared to play and are currently in Jupiter rehabbing. This week we got the mets at home for 4 and then 3 in DC. 9-6
19 D-Backs +7 The D-backs have actually come to life as of late, getting more consistency out of the offense and more great starts from Gallen and Merrill Kelly. A sweep of the Padres in Chase (where the D-backs could cheat by opening the roof) pulled them ahead of the Friars in the standings, and they're almost through their insanely tough part of the schedule to start the season. Watch out for the Snakes. 11-11
20 Rangers +2 Wear a Mask. Wash your hands. 3 series wins in a row during the last week helped get the record up to .500. This up coming week with series against the Padres and Mariners will show if this team is for real or not. Lance Lynn for Cy Young. 10-10
21 Mets -5 This was an interesting week in my personal rankings. We're now 4 full weeks in, I figured it's time to make some sweeping changes instead of only moving teams two or three spots if that. As for the Mets, what can you say? We're a middling team that shows ocasional flashes of brilliance. We dodged two big bullets when it comes to injuries to deGrom, and McNeil, but being swept by the Phillies is a big bullet to take no matter what. With our next 13 being strictly against the Marlins and Yankees, we've got some big tests coming up; Let's see if we pass. 9-14
22 Tigers -3 It's Tarik Skubal and Casey Mize time!! This Tuesday and Wednesday are the days we've been waiting for all year. Personally, I prefer Skubal over both Manning and Mize, but time will tell which one of the new crop of arms takes off the most. The most MLB-ready position player prospect, Isaac Paredes, is getting the call as well. This week: 4 at CWS, 3 at CLE. 9-10
23 Blue Jays -0 The ever-exciting Blue Jays continue to find new and interesting ways to lose games. Bo Bichette is probably out for a month, and the Trash Birds are looking more likely to make the playoffs than the Bisons Blue Jays. But Charlie Montoyo has a message for all the would be worriers! 7-11
24 Angels -3 I was reminded this week by a great Sam Miller article from back in 2016 on what would have happened if any of the teams ahead of the Angels had drafted Mike Trout. It's a great read, but essentially, it boils down to the fact that nearly every other team would have at some point been put over the top in the regular season and had made the playoffs in a season they otherwise didn't had he been on their team. One of the only exceptions to this? The Angels. They've made the playoffs with him once in a season they probably still would have made them without him. It's the most annoying thing to hear as an Angels fan, that they are wasting Mike Trout's career, but if they can't even make them in a year where over half the teams will, I think it's a conversation we're only going to hear more and more. Rightly so. 7-15
25 Royals +2 The Royals might actually be better than we realized. They're 8-9 against teams that are over .500 and have a +7 run differencial in those games. Can they sneak into the postseason? They may have a better chance than Lloyd Christmas did. 9-13
26 Giants -2 They are who we thought they were. The Giants have bad pitching, bad defense, bad management, and mediocre offense. After spending the week getting their shit pushed in by the Astros and A's, highlights of which included Zack Greinke calling his own pitches on the mound and Trevor Gott's ERA going up by over 12 whole runs, the Giants own the second worst run differential in the league at -43. This week they play the Angels, in a split series where Albert Pujols will almost certainly tie and then pass Willie Mays on the all time home run leaderboard, followed by the Bumgarner-less Diamondbacks. The only good thing about my new job being all night shifts is that I won't be able to subject myself to Gabe Kapler's Wild Ride on a nightly basis. 8-15
27 Red Sox -2 I may have ranked the Red Sox 29th this week, but they're truly 30th in my heart. Did you know that over the last 6 games, the Red Sox averaged over 1 run per inning? That's right, the sox gave up 1.167 runs per inning for 6 whole games. I can't believe I'm saying this, but man I miss Rick Porcello. Give me 6 IP 5 ER again. 6-16
28 Mariners 0 Evan White's bat has tested positive for COVID-19 and has been quarantined. Evan is still cleared to play without it, however, his activity at the plate is suffering terribly from it. Here's to wishing his bat makes a full recovery. 7-16
29 Pirates 0 The Pittsburgh Pirates have quit unexpectedly. Please reboot the franchise and try again 4-14
N/A, Quarantined Team||Cardinals|0| The Cardinals are finally back! After going up against the White Sox and putting away both sides of a "doubleheader" and losing on Sunday, they're 4-4 on August 17. DAE this season is weird? |4-4
submitted by kasutori_Jack to baseball [link] [comments]

CreateYoureReality NFL Week 4 Analysis and Picks

CreateYoureReality NFL Week 4 Analysis and Picks
Thursday Night Recap: That was nice. We put in 1 singles play and it was cashed by the end of the first half. The BBDLS we put in had many opportunities! Unfortunately, in the end, Darnold was not picked off and that bet was lost.
Singles (1-0,+2.5u)
Parlays (none)
Teasers (none)
BBDLS (0-1, -0.37u)
All in all a positive night. Lets see what the first Sunday in October has to offer! 😎

https://preview.redd.it/9v6becefj3r51.jpg?width=790&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=06d2feab30c82b1f6a3d7f8f69ec1bbed31ffebe
1PM Games

IND at CHI: Both teams seem severely untested, beating opponents with a combined record of 1-8. Indy lost to the Jags in the home opener as a rather sizeable favorite and their only two wins have come against teams who's season is basically over.
Conversely CHI is 3-0, but all three of their games had to be won in the 4th quarter, two come from behind and one holding off the garbage time Giants. Also, Chicago switched QBs mid game? I mean, it worked but Mitch was 2-0 to start the season and although he had thrown a pick in the first half, wasn't playing horrible...
Honestly, I think this will be one of the first tests for both of these teams. I think both QBs are above average, when they have a run game, at picking off zone defenses. But if their run game is tested, it leads to some shaky QB play.
*** Extra note: Colts coach, Frank Reich, was with the Philadelphia Eagles as quarterback coach when Foles replaced Carson Wentz and won Super Bowl MVP. "He was the one who really figured me out as a player," Foles said of Reich's tutelage in 2017. *** Does this mean Reich knows Foals strength's and weaknesses? Will River's even need to do anything in this game besides hand the ball off and watch his defense?
Side note to that, Foals has a QBR of 105 when he's a backup. When he is a starter it is 88.
It's only a lean as there is very little data on Foal's as a Bears QB, but my algo is leaning Colts/Under.

NO at DET: A battle of two 1-2 teams here. One will stabilize at .500 and one will have a big hill to climb. NO lost their last two games, but both were without star Michael Thomas playing. He looks to return this game. Detroit struggled in their first two but got their star WR back in Galloday and were able to pull off an upset in AZ last week. The Lions big hole seems to be run defense, so Kamara may be in for another big day. However, if the Lions take an early lead their run D might not come into play as much.
To me, this game is going to come down to Saints injuries. Is Thomas back and healthy? Will Marshon Lattimore and Janoris Jenkins, who were both listed on the Thursday injury report, play? Also tight end Jared Cook, defensive end Marcus Davenport, and guard Andrus Peat all missed practice on Friday. With this many holes, and Brees having trouble finding anyone other than Kamara... I could see another Lions upset here. If everyone comes back healthy and its both teams at full strength, my algo has NO as -8. But with the amounting injuries, this could be another, any given Sunday.

ARZ at CAR: Another interesting match up for ARZ here. The algo predicted to be weary of them last week vs. DET and not only did DET cover, they outright won. Give AZ some credit though. Three turnovers and they still had a chance to win at the end of the game.
Going from a team that was a TD favorite and lost to a team that was a TD underdog last week and won...Carolina got their first win last week over the LA Chargers. Honestly Bridgewater looked good. Their defense still isn't great and had a tough time against the run giving up over 5 ypc to 3 different RBs and 80 yards to Eckler in the air. The loss of CMC is clearly showing when the Panthers get in the red zone. If they just finished half the times they were in the red zone with a TD instead of a FG, that game would have been over by halftime.

JAX at CIN: Jax coming off a disappointing loss to MIA last Thursday. CIN coming off the first tie of the season vs. the Eagles. I am rather high on Burrows this year. I think he and Matt Ryan and Gardner Minshew will have similar betting years. Lose a lot of games, cover a lot of spreads.
Burrows was sacked 8 times last week yet he put up some very decent numbers and gave his team a chance to get their first win. This week he goes against a Jax secondary that is one of the worst in the league. This is one of my keys to the game for both teams, and why I have this as a virtual coin flip. Burrow has been sacked 14 times in 3 games and Jax has 3 TOTAL sacks in 3 games. If Jax continues the Burrow pressure, I favor Minshew and Robinson. If Jax continues to let opposing Qbs have time in the pocket, I believe Burrows will pick them apart just like Fitzmagic did.
This looks like a great game to play both sides. I do like Burrows and he is giving his team every opportunity this year. However, +2.5 in a "coin flip" game is my FAVORITE number to tease. A standard 6 point teaser takes you through FOUR KEY NUMBERS in 3, 4, 6, and 7, up to +8.5.

Cle at DAL: There are two games this week that were really hard for me to get a vibe on. This is the first. Dallas is like the baby brother to Seattle in my opinion. If Dallas was at full strength and had that defense we saw them producing last year, I would almost say they would be the big brother, but right now they are the little Seattle. Bad offense, but a good QB that can make plays and extend drives (Russ is obviously better)
Cleveland however looks like they might find an identity like Tennessee had last year. Very Run first/play action later and eventually crack one or two deep balls to take the momentum and ultimately games. It's because of this style of matchup I am truly unsure which is the most +EV side here. Dallas should be the favorite. Their offense has more weapons than...probably anyone in the league right now and they are at home. But 4.5/5 points? Why isn't this closer to 2.5/3. If Cleveland doesn't fall behind, their style of play vs this weakened Dallas defense should EAT. Pounding the rock and setting up Baker to launch 40 yard bombs to Odell on the sideline and 25 yard crosses to Landry in enough space to rack up YAC?
What's confusing about the line is Vegas should know that Cleveland has a chance to win, and also that Cleveland is 2-1 to the Dallas 1-2. Yet they still jack up the points from what I think it should be (2.5/3) all the way to 5.5 opens? Although Last week my algo and my gut favored GB and Vegas had moved the line in NO favor so i switched my lean to the Vegas side and it was wrong. It's weird because both teams can win by two TDs and lose by two TDs. Seems more prudent to skip the sides play (unless you lean heavy cle ml) and look at props. Both teams should have plenty of offense in this game. Even if CLE gets a lead and leans on the run game to crush the TOP battle, expect Dallas and Dak to launch it up there and give plenty of fantasy value.

MIN at HOU: Battle of two winless teams here. MIN had a real shot to win last week vs the Titans. Correctly, they utilized Dalvin Cooks speed and agility to attack the Titans weakness on defense which is stopping the run. Unfortunately, as predicted, their defense is hot trash and gave up 6 field goals to Ten and lost the game in the final 2 mins to one of them.
Houston was leading vs. PIT last week and had the momentum up until a questionable PI call on a PIT 4 and inches that swung the momentum to the PIT side with the Hou offense only gaining 41 yards and 2 first downs in the second half. After that it was all PIT. In this game, I don't see the same. EVEN if MIN can get an early lead and play HOU just like they did TEN, pressing the run game with Cook... Watson is too good not to be able to make some plays vs. this struggling MIN defense.
My algo is favoring HOU here and flags Watson Rush yards 22.5 Over as a VERY favorable prop

SEA at MIA: This is the other game that is a little confusing to me. As usual when capping a MIA game these days, you have to decide if you're going to see Fitzmagic, or Fitzception. Last week, we predicted poorly and Fitzmagic taught the Jags a little lesson. This week is even harder because he's coming off a stock building performance and about to face ANOTHER HORRIBLE DEFENSE. The Seattle D is worst in the league right now. Which is saying something when you see that the Seattle offense is one of the SLOWEST in the league! Taking the play clock down every chance they can and giving their defense every opportunity to rest.
Yet the defense is still blowing coverages and getting burnt in the secondary. The one bright spot in the Seattle defense has been their ability to stop the run. They rank second in opponent's run yards per game at only 67! That's pretty good since they have already faced Gurley, Michel, and Elliot. However, this week Seattle is missing even more pieces on the defensive side of the ball. Jamal Adams on the pass rush and CB Quinton Dunbar are both out for this one. I can see this leaning Fitz more to the magic side than the ception side.
I mean if there is a game this week that shouts take the underdog and the points. It feels like this one. It has all the factors of Seattle missing players, traveling 5500 miles east for a 1pm game (which russ is 9-0 in soooo... maybe that stat is worthless here), Mia riding high off a win and extra rest, and most importantly, one of the only games in the first few weeks we have seen some blatant RLM on. Currently I am seeing 71% spread and 90% ML on Seattle, but the line has dropped from a -7 open to -5.5. All this tells me that sharps are seeing some value on the MIA side. And who's to blame them, the team has some chemistry right now and SEA will be traveling across the country to play in 90 degree heat. Maybe I sprinkle some on the MIA ml here? 🤪
Bleh, that was hard to type. My algo has Sea -9 and they are also my preseason favorite to win theNFC...so I hate that I reached the conclusion that Fitz is likely to have one of his better games on the year.🤪

LAC at TB: Hmmm, Chargers coming off a disappointing loss to the struggling panthers. Now traveling east for a 1pm game short a few key players, namely two offensively linemen, to take on one of the better pass rushes in the league. I still am not convinced Brady and this Bucs offense is good yet. Their defense has the last half of last year to back up its start, but the offense struggled in game one and while it has done well in game 2 and 3, it was vs clearly inferior opponents.
Herbert is still an unknown. He, like burrow, look very promising, but facing this pass rush in an early heavy travel game? The addition of Bosa back into the lineup is definitely going to help. Both teams seem to be stronger on the defensive side of the ball so I would expect this game to be lower scoring affair.

BAL at WAS: What can I really say about these next two games. Bal did NOT live up to the expectations in week 3. After watch KC struggle against a Chargers team with a first start QB, Bal let KC look like the team that won the Superbowl. Washington played a close game for the first half-3quarters, but then just unraveled as the game closed. I am expecting Baltimore to come out with a rage from their previous loss and a focus on reestablishing themselves as one of the AFC's premier superbowl contenders.

4PM GAMES

NYG at LAR: This game is basically the same for me. The Rams took their first loss of the season last week vs the undefeated Bills. They struggled early (west coast team traveling east for a 1pm game) going down 28-3. But mounted a comeback to take the lead late in the 4th, only to see a bogus PI and their prevent defense let the game slip away in the final minutes. I am veryyy high on this Rams team and I think they will only get better as a unit as the season continues. The NYG, on the other hand, are clearly the worst team in the NFC East. Which is saying a lot considering that is probably the worst division in football. They just lost a home blowout to the C team 49ers who had like 20 people on IR. And just to show how bad the Giants were last game, they didn't make SF put ONE time in that game. They also NEVER made a trip to the red zone...
While they may not start off the first quarter as hot as the Ravens, I expect the Rams to win convincingly.

Ne at KC: Well it looks like this game is a no go. I was very heavy on the NE side as my algo has this as NE +4. I put it in my early week pre research parlay and just this morning Draftkings voided it due to the Covid concerns. As I type this I am not sure if they game is even going to be played. If it somehow does, and all first team starters play, I love the NE side. I expect KC to do their thing, but giving Bellicheck and Cam a whole TD to cover?! Too much for me to pass on.

BUF at LVR: Josh Allen and the Bills offense looked great in the first half vs zone defense. But once the Rams started blitzing it was over for Allen. The Raiders have looked good in all 3. They did get outplayed by NE in that one but as expected, Bellichek knows how to shut most people down. My algo has this one as Bills -1 so I may have to jump on the home dog catching points.

SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

Philly at SF: I have no stats to back this up. Philly is crap, we know this. But we also know that no team is ever as bad as they looked at their worst. They are in the WORST division in football, so 0-2-1 is not a death sentence for them. I expect them to give it everything in this particular game. Especially with half the 49ers team still on IR. It's possible that Philly lays a fat egg like the Giants last week, but I think Philly is more stout up front and will slow down SF's running game and make Mullens beat them.


Singles (10-14, -6u)
  • Johnathon Taylor 79.5 Rush Yards Over (2.3u to win 2u)
  • Johnathon Taylor Anytime TD (2.5u to win 2u)
  • T.J. Hockenson 46.5 Rec Yards Over (1.5u to win 1u)
  • Ryan Fitzpatrick & Russell Wilson 300+ Passing Yards Each @ +300 (1u to win 3u)
  • James Robinson 16.5 Rec Yards Over (2.3u to win 2u)
  • Watson 22.5 Rush Yards Over (4.5u to win 4u)
  • HOU -2.5 (3u to win 1.95u)
  • BAL 1Q -3.5 (2u to win 2u)
  • CLE 1Q +0.5 (2.2u to win 2u)
  • LAC/TB 44.5 Under (2.86u to win 2u)
  • Myles Gaskin 4 Reception Over (3.5u to win 3u)
  • PHL +7.5 (2.2u to win 2u) Sadly put this in before the recent injury update and points movement :( Still like the Philly side, just missed some free points.
  • Nelson Agholor 35.5 Rec Yards Over (2u to win 2u)
  • Darren Waller 5.5 Receptions Over (2.1u to win 2u)
Parlays (0-6, -22.15u)
  • BAL -7.5, TB 48.5u, CLE +10, AZ 45o, CIN +4, PHL +14.5 (3.24u to win 26.19u)
  • HOU ml, TB ml, DET ml, BAL -9.5, LAR -9.5, NE +10.5 (2.5u to win 25.28u) Put this in early when I liked some DET ml sprinkle. It was before the NE game was called off so the odds reduced from 16-1 to 10-1
  • CLE +8.5, HOU ml, BAL -8.5, LAR -8.5 (2.5u to win 10.55u)
Teasers (1-3, +28.85u)
  • None
BBDLS (0-15, -12.97u)
  • I have 4 BBDLS bet for a total of 2.8u
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9/27 - TOP RATED NFL PLAYS + SPECIAL RELEASE BETTING ACTION & GAME BREAKDOWNS

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MAC's Week 3 NFL Update & Game Predictions - Below
Week 2 in the National Football League was as wild as it gets. The Cowboys provided one of the greatest comebacks in history, and the injury bug hit the San Francisco 49ers. MAC has 3 Top Rated NFL plays today plus his exclusive 2x NFL parlay. The MAC has been riding the magic bull, special release plays going 4-1 in weeks 1-2-3 and today will be a true bookie smasher day. MAC is making bankrolls fat again for his Patreon Clients and Gambling Report subscribers have been reporting record earnings since the start of the newsletter! Today's game releses are courtesy of the RedAlertWagers.com team as well as Roland "The Roarin MAC" McGuillaman - The Odds Maker Assassin and International Sharp Betting, A True Sports Betting Professional! Get Today's NFL Hush Money Move + MAC's Late Info Action only on Patreon - $7.00 Get's all MAC's Special Release Action & Top Stock Picks and Options Moves for 1 Month. Guaranteed to make you a fatter bankroll!! - MAC's Picks

MAC's Week 3 NFL Update & Game Predictions -

Week 2 in the National Football League was as wild as it gets. The Cowboys provided one of the greatest comebacks in history, and the injury bug hit the San Francisco 49ers.
2021 Super Bowl LV Odds
  • Kansas City Chiefs +500
  • Baltimore Ravens +500
  • San Francisco 49ers +1200
  • New England Patriots +1800
  • New Orleans Saints +900
  • Pittsburgh Steelers +1800
  • Dallas Cowboys +1600
  • L.A. Chargers +5000
  • Green Bay Packers +2000
  • Seattle Seahawks +1200
  • Philadelphia Eagles +4000
  • L.A. Rams +2200 (MAC's Long shot)
  • Cleveland Browns +4000
  • Minnesota Vikings +4000
  • L.A. Raiders +5000 (MAC's Money Mover)
  • Indianapolis Colts +2500
  • Tennessee Titans +2200
  • Houston Texans +6600
  • Chicago Bears +5000
  • Atlanta Falcons +8000
  • Buffalo Bills +2200
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers +1600
  • Denver Broncos +10000
  • Carolina Panthers +17500
  • New York Giants +15000
  • New York Jets +20000
  • Detroit Lions +10000
  • Arizona Cardinals +2000
  • Jacksonville Jaguars +17500
  • Cincinnati Bengals +20000
  • Miami Dolphins +15000
  • Washington Football Team +12500
San Francisco 49ers lose Nick Bosa and Solomon Thomas - The 49ers beat the New York Jets 31-13 in Week 2, but it came with a huge cost. The Niners two starting defensive-ends, Nick Bosa and Solomon Thomas, suffered ACL injuries. Both are out from 6 to 8 weeks. Quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo is questionable in Week 3 due to a knee injury. Running back Raheem Mostert is listed as doubtful due to an MCL sprain. The 49ers play the New York Giants in Week 3.
There’s a good likelihood the Niners sit both players even if either is ready to go. San Francisco is 1-1. Their next division game is in Week 6. That’s the battle coach Kyle Shanahan should circle for Mostert’s return. Garoppolo should be ready by Week 4. When it comes to Bosa and Thomas, other defenders must step it up. The 49ers have a good defense, but they lost Richard Sherman in the first week. The Giants, Philadelphia Eagles, and Miami Dolphins are there next three opponents. But, after that, the Niners play the Rams, New England Patriots, Seattle Seahawks, Green Bay Packers, and New Orleans Saints all in a row. Things could get tough for the SF defense unless a couple of players step it up.
Cowboys provide amazing comeback against Falcons - At halftime of Sunday’s win against the Atlanta Falcons, the Dallas Cowboys were down 29-10. Not only did the Cowboys come back and win, but they came back to win 40-39. The Boys got an onside kick, unheard of in today’s NFL, and then converted a field goal. What’s interesting about the onside kick is that instead of pouncing on the football, Falcon players waited for it to go out of bounds. That makes absolutely no sense and is the reason the Cowboys were able to notch their first win of the season. Atlanta’s defense is the worst in the NFL. Coach Dan Quinn is on the hot seat because of it. Boneheaded plays like the one that led to the loss at home won’t help Quinn’s case to keep his job.
Ravens and Chiefs on collision course in NFL Week 3 - There were other Week 2 highlights. The Las Vegas Raiders opened Allegiant Stadium with a solid 31-24 win over the New Orleans Saints while the Seattle Seahawks and Russell Wilson beat Cam Newton and the New England Patriots 35-30. Also, both the Ravens and Chiefs won their respective games. The Baltimore Ravens beat the Houston Texans 33-16 while the KC Chiefs required overtime to beat the Chargers 23-20. Los Angeles quarterback Justin Herbert played exceptionally well. Coach Anthony Lynn said Herbert would remain the backup if Tyrod Taylor were healthy enough to play in Week 3. We’ll see how long Lynn sticks with that plan. Next Monday night, the Chiefs and Ravens battle. Baltimore looks like the team to beat in the AFC. They were the team to beat last season as well. It will be interesting to see how the Ravens’ defense handles Patrick Mahomes.

MAC's Top Rated NFL Picks and Parlays - NFL Odds at MyBookie

09/27 - 01:00 PM - Houston Texans vs Pittsburgh Steelers
Play: Pittsburgh Steelers -4
09/27 - 01:00 PM - Chicago Bears vs Atlanta Falcons
Play: Over 47
09/27 - 08:20 PM - Green Bay Packers vs New Orleans Saints
Play: New Orleans Saints -3
09/27 - MAC's 2x NFL Parlay
09/27 - 04:25 PM Detroit Lions vs Arizona Cardinals
Play: Over 54.5
09/27 - 01:00 PM - Washington Football Team vs Cleveland Browns
Play: Over 44
Promo Code - THEMAC
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MAC's Money Making NFL Player Matchup - Key matchup breakdown from our in house analysts + Predictions.

MAC's Money Making NFL Player Matchup - Key matchup breakdown from our in house analysts + Predictions.
Promo Code THEMAC
Join the MyBookie Super Contest - Here

MAC's Money Making NFL Player Matchup - Key matchup breakdown from our in house analysts + Predictions.

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Buccaneers WR Chris Godwin vs. Broncos CB Michael Ojemudia

After missing a game, Godwin is back making the Buccaneers' offense a big percent better. Godwin was Tom Brady's go to in week 1, earning each one of his 7 catches for 79 yards, lined up outside or in the slot he can get it done with the big plays. When Godwin is lined up wide to the offense's left, will come the matchups with Ojemudia, the rookie third-rounder out of Iowa.
With A.J. Bouye out, Ojemudia played out every snap last weekend in Pittsburgh. Ojemudia struggled and will be struggling this week too, but at 6-1 and 2 bucks he poses a size advantage against Godwin. The Bucs' 2019 leading receiver with 1,333 yards, Godwin is the Bucs' best pass-catcher in the open field after he has the ball in his hands, so Ojemudia will have to be on his tackle game, he has the body mass to make a things happen making for a key factor and this weeks money making match up.
Quick Trends:
  • Buccaneers are 2-0-2 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up win.
  • Buccaneers are 4-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
  • Buccaneers are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
  • Buccaneers are 3-1-2 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
  • Over is 4-0 in Buccaneers last 4 games as a favorite
  • Over is 4-0 in Buccaneers last 4 games in Week 3.
  • Over is 4-0 in Buccaneers last 4 games in September.
FIRST QUARTER
Play: 1st Quarter over 7.5
FIRST HALF
Play: Over 21 (+5 UNITS)
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS vs DENVER BRONCOS - BRONCOS - Team Total
Play: Over 19.5 (+5 UNITS)
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Get MAC's Week 3 NFL Update & Game Predictions -
Week 2 in the National Football League was as wild as it gets. The Cowboys provided one of the greatest comebacks in history, and the injury bug hit the San Francisco 49ers. MAC has 3 Top Rated NFL plays today plus his exclusive 2x NFL parlay. The MAC has been riding the magic bull, special release plays going 4-1 in weeks 1-2-3 and today will be a true bookie smasher day. MAC is making bankrolls fat again for his Patreon Clients and Gambling Report subscribers have been reporting record earnings since the start of the newsletter! Today's game releses are courtesy of the RedAlertWagers.com team as well as Roland "The Roarin MAC" McGuillaman - The Odds Maker Assassin and International Sharp Betting, A True Sports Betting Professional!
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Top Ten Greatest Male Players in Challenge History - No. 7 - Derrick Kosinski

Honorable Mentions Pt. 1 - Wes, Jamie Murray, Brad
Honorable Mentions Pt. 2 - Theo, Dan, Abram, The Miz, Turbo
No. 10 - Alton Williams (Real World: Las Vegas)
No. 9 - Mark Long (Road Rules: USA - The First Adventure)
No. 8 - Darrell Taylor (Road Rules: Campus Crawl)
No. 7 - Derrick Kosinski (Road Rules: X-Treme)
 
If The Challenge had a Player Efficiency Rating system, Derrick’s Career PER would be at the very top. He’s one of the most consistent elite challengers ever.
 
Derrick has participated in 10 challenge seasons. He’s either made the final challenge or lost right before the final eight out of ten times. The other two times, he was sent home fifth. If you go back and analyze every individual Derrick performance, you’ll soon come to realize that he’s never had a bad season under his belt.
 
Missions Performance-Wise, Derrick was: 2nd best on Fresh Meat (after Evan), 2nd best on Cutthroat (after Abram), 3rd best on Inferno II (after C.T. and Landon), 3rd best on Gauntlet II (after Landon and Alton), 3rd best on Dirty Thirty (after C.T. and Nelson), 4th best on Inferno III (after Abram, Alton, and Johnny), and 5th best on the Duel (after Evan, C.T., Wes, and Brad). The Island had no missions, but Derrick was the clear-cut number one competitor (Ring Wrestle and Ball Buster are cold hard evidence). The missions on the Ruins were too team-oriented to determine a ranking system, but Derrick was at the very least top five and you can make an argument he was in the top three. That’s 9 out of 10 seasons where Derrick was a top five male performer.
 
The only season where Derrick wasn’t a top 5 male competitor was on his rookie season, Battle of the Sexes II. But even on that season, Derrick still left his fans with a career highlight moment in his short stay. And it was in his the first mission he’s ever participated in, Dangle Drop. In this mission, competitors had to hold on to a punching bag dangling above a lake for as long as possible. Derrick (alongside Abram) won the competition for the Guys, by outlasting everyone in his preliminary heat and then beating Coral and Rachel in the final heat. Young Derrick’s cockiness and drunken behavior didn’t rub off too well within the males team on the first day of Sexes II. If he would’ve just performed average in Dangle Drop, he was potentially the first boot. But Derrick proved to the rest of the team that he was a worthy competitor with a whole lot of fight in him. Derrick became a victim of Elimination Hill on Sexes II after the fifth mission (regardless of having outperformed Mike the Miz up to that point). Mike was an established veteran who had strong social ties to the Men’s team upper echelon, and because of this, he was saved.
 
Derrick’s showing on Dangle Drop (Sexes II) was a sneak peek to his ATG mental strength, Surf Torture (Inferno II) cemented it.
 
Surf Torture was the premier mission of Derrick’s sophomore season. In Surf Torture, pairs made within both the Good Guys and Bad Asses teams had to endure physical tests that were assigned to them by highly trained navy seals. The series of physical tasks ranged from wheelbarrows to having to lift heavy logs up and down the shore of a beach. When physical fatigue kicked in and the pairs were no longer performing the exercises in a sufficient manner, they were eliminated from the competition.
 
When Surf Torture commenced, pairs dropped left and right because of how physically demanding the tasks were. The final 2 pairs came down to Abram/Derrick (Bad Asses) and Landon/Mike The Miz (Good Guys). You couldn’t have written a better final showdown for a mental strength competition. Determination. Drive. Heart. Those four guys embody those intangible qualities better than anyone else in Challenge History.
 
Here’s what the four mental strength titans had to say during Surf Torture’s final showdown: “I’m dying, so I know they’re hurting just as bad as I am” (Abram). My hamstrings are starting to cramp up and I’m trying to get myself away from thinking about [the pain]” (Landon). “[My] whole mind is saying ‘I can’t do this, I can’t do this anymore” (Mike The Miz). “It’s coming down to the wire. As much as this mission is torturing us, as much as I’m hurting, I’m not gonna give up to the Miz or Landon” (Derrick).
 
The last physical exercise of Surf Torture was the upper body decimator, the wheelbarrow. The first mission of the season literally weighed on Derrick and Mike’s shoulders, chest, and arms (All Abram and Landon had to do was hold onto their partners legs). Derrick was far from an empty gas tank. He was maneuvering up and down the shore with at least a quarter of his inner drive left, nodding his head from side to side whenever the navy seal asked if he was ready to quit. The Miz was a whole another story. He was running on fumes. Derrick was on his hands in a push-up position, meanwhile Mike was dragging his entire body through the sand (elbows and belly touching the floor). Mike’s engine eventually shut down and the navy seals eliminated him and Landon, giving Derrick, Abram, and the rest of the Bad Asses the first mission win of Inferno II. Derrick’s drive in Surf Torture is a frontrunner for greatest display of mental strength in a Challenge ever.
 
Other than Surf Torture, Derrick was the shining star of two other Inferno II missions. (1) Time To Ride: Players had to drive miniature motorcycles through a zig zag course above water. Derrick posted the fastest time out of all seven males and the times weren’t close. Derrick - 57 seconds, Landon - 1 min. 49 sec., C.T. - 2 min. 50 sec., Darrell - 3 min. 16 seconds, Abram and Mike Mizanin DQ’ed. Derrick put on a clinic for other all-time greats. (2) Dodge Yer Balls: Derrick and C.T. looked like professional dodgeball players, whereas Brad, Darrell, Landon, and Mike Mizanin performed as they had just picked up a dodgeball for the first time. Derrick and C.T. wiped out the entire Good Guys Team all by themselves in easy fashion. Although it was a joint effort, production made an error in giving C.T. the life shield. Derrick deserved it as he eliminated four Good Guys as opposed to C.T. eliminating three, and Derrick also had two game winning catches (C.T. had none). So, in actuality, the life shield ratio between C.T. and Derrick on Inferno II should’ve been 5 to 3.
 
On the Gauntlet II, Derrick makes it known that when all is said and done, he’ll go down as pound for pound the greatest challenge player ever in America’s Fifth Sport.
 
For about the entire first half of his career, Derrick weighed in at about 150 lbs. In the Challenge, that’s the lightest weight to ever exist in the men’s division. The other notable names I can think of within Young Derrick’s weight class are Adam King, Ryan Kehoe, and Luke Wolfe. None of these guys hold a candle to what Derrick has gone on to accomplish in the first half of his career. The club of 150 pounders is always viewed as the bottom of the food chain for Challenge heavyweights to devour. The smallest guys every season are always called into elimination first and are picked off rather easily. Young Derrick was an exception to this design within the game. More times than none, he wasn’t the heavyweights prey. It was the complete opposite. He was the one who preyed upon those bigger and stronger than him.
 
On the Gauntlet II, Derrick went into five physical eliminations. Derrick was victorious in the first four. The opponents he feasted on were: 170 lb. Brad, 180 lb. Adam, 190 lb. Ace, and 220 lb. Syrus. He defeated Adam Larson and Brad in Name That Coconut (a trivia game and a physical battle mixed into one) and beat Ace and Syrus In Beach Brawl (a sumo wrestling contest on sand). The Derrick vs. Syrus elimination was highly believed to be “Derrick’s swan song”. However, the combination of Derrick’s drive and wrestling experience helped him shock the world as he came out on top against Syrus, 3-1. Derrick suffered season-ending defeat in his fifth elimination, versus a 200 lb. Timmy in the final male gauntlet before the final challenge.
 
Derrick’s one hell of a regular season on Gauntlet II earned him nickname “The Pitbull”. He also received a nod of approval from the most respected veteran in the game, Mark Long. Mark praised Derrick for “[having] so much heart, and being the guy who went against the monster every time and [slaying] the monster”. Mark Long declared retirement at the G2 reunion, but as he was doing so, he passed his signature bandana over to Derrick (to represent a passing of the torch). “From the First Road Ruler to the Last Road Ruler”, Mark knew that Derrick was ready to be at the front and center of the Challenge’s future.
 
After Gauntlet II, it was just a matter of time before “The Pitbull” would get his first challenge victory. The only question was when.
 
On Fresh Meat, Derrick was paired with Diem and they placed 4th overall out of 13 teams. Together, they won three missions (the second most out of any team behind Coral/Evan). They won Batten Down The Hatches (agility based), Jump Down Under (swimming based), and Deep Blue (tested ability of holding breath under water). Derrick continued to prove how well rounded of a competitor he was to add to his bulletproof mental strength and tip-top wrestling ability.
 
Derrick’s fifth challenge was The Duel. Although he was eliminated at the halfway point, he still gave us some moments to be proud of. Derrick did something we thought he would never do and that’s win a puzzle elimination. Derrick’s intelligence has always been his biggest weakness, so him winning Ascender vs. Tyler is a nice outlier experience we can appreciate in his long line of work. We also got traditional Derrick in Push Over, a mission where players, having their hands tied together, had to wrestle one another off a large plank that was attached to the end of the boat. Derrick did what Derrick knows best and that was get low and use leverage to push his opponents off. The mission was done tournament style with 8 male participants. Derrick managed to take out C.T., Big Easy, and Brad to win Push Over. I have Derrick’s low man execution in Push Over as the third best mission highlight of the Duel (behind C.T. in Flying Leap and Wes in Sunken Treasure).
 
On the next season to take place, Inferno III, Derrick gets called in as a replacement for C.T. who punched Davis the first night in South Africa. Derrick didn’t expect to be on the season, which probably means he didn’t do any prep training in the off-season and it best explains why his mission performances on the Inferno III were teetering more towards middle-of-the-road than being the number one guy on his team. He didn’t win a single life shield, but still managed to put up solid numbers in the mission stat sheet. Derrick’s finest showing on I3 was his Cornerball win vs. Davis, where he roughhoused Davis in a 1-on-1 game of rugby. After six valiant efforts, Derrick finally got his long awaited championship on Inferno III.
 
Throughout his career, Derrick’s pitbull mentality has piled up a phenomenal highlight reel. On the flip side, Derrick’s social mechanics are one of the best the game has ever seen.
 
In his ten season career, Derrick only had 2 seasons where he was at the bottom in terms of social positioning (Sexes II and Gauntlet II). The other 8 seasons Derrick has been on, he was at the top of the totem pole in terms of alliances. For example, on I2, Derrick/C.T./Brad/Darrell kept each other safe from ever calling one another out for the elimination. Three of four of these guys never saw an elimination and made the final (Derrick was one of them). This was the only secret alliance on the I2, as alliances were considered taboo during the Golden era. On Fresh Meat, the main alliance that ran the entire second half of the game was Derrick/Diem, Darrell/Aviv, and Theo/Chanda. On Cutthroat, Derrick was the most well-connected player on the Blue team, and could’ve gone without seeing an elimination the entire season had Ty never been such a catastrophe.
 
Derrick’s social game on his second and third championship seasons (The Island and The Ruins) were perfect.
 
On The Island, from the public perception, there were village leaders (Kenny, Johnny, Paula, Johanna, Dunbar) and the rest of the village were outsiders. Derrick was the only player on the entire island who was happily welcomed by the leaders group, but also had a great relationship with the rest of the outsiders. Derrick was great friends with Kenny and Johnny, but unlike the two of them, he never bullied Robin, Tonya, or Evelyn. These people were his actual friends who thought highly of him. For this reason, Derrick’s key was never in consideration to get taken throughout the entire season. You couldn’t say the same for Kenny, Johnny, Dunbar, and Paula (all of whom either had their key stolen or were in danger of getting it stolen). Derrick’s untouchable social game on the Island is best highlighted when he threw a face-off just to give Johnny a key. Late in the season, people without keys were jumping at each other throats to get into the face-off, but yet, no one batted an eye when Derrick who already had a key volunteered for a second time. Had anybody else done this, it would’ve been seen as cynical, but because it was Derrick, people genuinely didn’t seem bothered by it. The plan of Johnny getting his key worked, and Derrick won a 10-1 landslide vote versus Cohutta. Derrick was respected so much that Cohutta’s plea was him essentially telling everyone that Derrick was a better fit for the final boats.
 
On the Ruins, Derrick was the third member to the J.E.K. coalition. He was the silent partner in crime (hence his first name initial not being included in the alliance name). Derrick benefited from all of Evan and Kenny’s political moves without being seen as a member of the alliance. Derrick had the strongest social ties in the game (Along with J.E.K., he was great friends with all the old schoolers - Syrus, Darrell, Katie, Tonya, Veronica, and Ibis). Derrick had to conform with the J.E.K. political movement by sacrificing old school friends in order to get his way to the end. Derrick, however, was not punished for his actions, because after all he was just doing what was best for his game (Derrick was a respectful sportsman to everyone unlike the rest of his J.E.K. associates).
 
Derrick’s overall player qualities stood the test of time on Dirty Thirty.
 
When our beloved all-time greats come back from a grand layoff (5 season break or more), the narrative arc in their comeback season is always the same: They fall short of the final challenge. We seen it with Darrell on Invasion, Mark on Exes, Alton on Seasons II, and Brad on Vendettas. Derrick broke the curse on Dirty Thirty. Although he had been missing in action for nine seasons, Derrick made it all the way to second place behind his all-time great comrade Jordan.
 
Dirty Thirty was an extremely mentally strenuous season with all types of twists and turns. The season also has one of the most stacked male casts of all-time, but this didn’t seem to bring out a single ounce of ring rust in Derrick. He was the only male to never be sent to the redemption house. Derrick won three missions, an elimination, and was apart of the top alliance of the house (with Bananas/C.T./Jordan/Tony/Leroy). Derrick’s well-connected social game was best highlighted in Veronica going to bat for him by turning the vote towards Leroy in the greatest political move of the season.
 
Derrick is the true elimination king, not Wes.
 
Wes’ 14-8 elimination record is the most padded and highly overrated statistic in Challenge history. His win against Derrick in Pole Wrestle is praiseworthy, but his best wins after that are beating Zach/Zahida in Lights Out or Jamie in blindfolded soccer (those victories aren’t much to write about for a second and third best of a hailed “elimination king”). He also has five exile wins that are basically non-canon in these debates (as him and Casey had 40 lbs. less luggage to carry, per average, than their opponents). Wes’ seven other victories were versus: Chet, Nick Brown, Davis/Tyrie, Brandon/Ty, Nate/Priscilla, and Nate/Christina. In Wes’ 8 losses, he was dominated four times: twice to Leroy, once to Bear, and once to Big Easy (although he was at a large weight disadvantage). His four other losses were versus Bananas in a crapshoot, Dario in an agility contest, Cohutta in a strategy based elimination, and his stamina failed him in an exile where the luggage factor was no longer benefiting him (versus Luke/Evelyn).
 
Derrick, on the other hand, is 8-4, arguably 9-4 (if you count his mercenary win against Joss in Vendettas as an official elimination). Derrick’s three best elimination wins are (1) vs. Joss in Crazy Eight: The Pitbull came out of the doghouse one last time and it’s jaw was locked to the 8-figure that him and Joss were fighting for. There was no letting go, and after 20 rounds of back-breaking battle, Joss’ mental fatigue kicked in and Derrick prevailed in the Vendettas death match. (2) versus Syrus in Beach Brawl (3) and versus Bananas in Reel World. The other opponents Derrick has knocked out throughout his career were Adam Larson, Ace, Brad, Brandon, Davis, and Tyler.
 
Derrick’s four losses are the most honorable Challenge deaths imaginable and take nothing away from him as a competitor. (1/2) He lost to Timmy and Tyler in strictly weight based eliminations (otherwise known as eliminations that hold the least amount of weight in judging competitors, no pun intended). Derrick was at a 50 lb. disadvantage in both contests, and there was nothing he could’ve done to win. No physical contact was allowed. It was just push or pull with all of your body weight. (3) Derrick/Diem lost to Darrell/Aviv on FM1 exile. Derrick/Diem had 75 more lbs. of luggage to carry than Darrell/Aviv. They stood no chance before the elimination even began. Fresh Meat exiles, in general, are considered unlawful in all-time great discussions. (4) Derrick lost to Wes in what people call today, the most memorable elimination to ever go down in Challenge history. Derrick’s performance here is a moral victory. Wes, in his post-elimination confessional, said he wanted Derrick to be The Godfather to his first child because of how much respect he had for Derrick after their elimination.
 
Although a prime Wes beat Derrick head-to-head, Derrick is not only the one to have knocked out the bigger names throughout their elimination career, but he’s also won more beautifully and lost more honorably. This is why Derrick rightfully deserves to sit on the throne for Elimination King (only C.T. and Darrell challenge him for a seat).
 
Derrick’s Overall Assessment.
 
In the league of Challenge legends, Derrick is seventh best. Most challenge fans would probably disagree with having Derrick one spot ahead of Darrell. But in my eyes, the only thing Darrell really has over Derrick is championship belts. Derrick has had a more consistently efficient career with more competitive highlights. When you break down their careers side-by-side: Derrick’s best competitive seasons (Inferno II, Gauntlet II, Fresh Meat) are greater than Darrell’s best (Inferno, Fresh Meat, Invasion). Derrick’s best social game performances (Island, Ruins) are better than Darrell’s best social game seasons (Inferno, Inferno II). Derrick’s worst showings (Sexes II, Duel) are a whole lot more memorable than Darrell’s (Fresh Meat 2, Dirty Thirty).
 
Derrick has ATG mental strength, aggression, and wrestling ability, whereas Darrell has ATG physical strength and stamina. Both have poor intelligence. Although they’re both close competitively speaking, Derrick edges out Darrell by being more well rounded in other areas such as agility and balance (two areas Darrell is inconsistent in, since he’s afraid of heights).
 
In eliminations, you can’t go wrong with picking either or. In missions, I’d take Derrick. In a final challenge, I’d take Darrell, but the question is would Darrell even get there? Derrick has shown time and time again he’s in for the long haul, whereas Darrell has been sent on the first flight home one-fourth of his career. This, along with a more well-connected social game is why I believe Derrick is the slightly safer choice between the two.
 
Derrick’s ceiling is the 7th position. His highly questionable intelligence molds him as a second place finisher in Challenge finals today (Dirty Thirty is proof of this). To be in consideration for the Challenge Mount Rushmore, you have to be a betting favorite to not only make it to the end, but also win a modern final all by yourself. The rest of the six legends that have yet to be revealed have all shown to be more than capable of enduring an entire season and accomplishing a first place finish. They’re also a lot more independent in constructing their own destinies from beginning to end, whereas you can always argue Derrick’s winning legacy might’ve not been as decorated if he never would’ve joined forces with Kenny Santucci (Derrick’s three championships have all been with Kenny on his team, who was always politically in charge of the game’s operations).
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Ranking all 32 NFL teams by training camp performance: Ravens, Steelers among the top five

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/ranking-all-32-nfl-teams-by-training-camp-performance-ravens-steelers-among-the-top-five/
Any guesses as to which team rounds out the list at No. 32?
By Cody Benjamin
NFL power rankings are one thing. NFL training camp power rankings are another. And we're not talking about a typical pecking order, with the most likely Super Bowl contenders atop the list and every bottom-dweller rounding it out. We're talking about rankings based strictly on how teams are performing in camp -- on the field, off it, and everything in between.
Naturally, this kind of ranking still puts most of the real-life contenders near the top of the list. The Baltimore Ravens, our No. 1 team, for example, are both one of the betting favorites to win it all and clearly one of the best teams of this summer, thanks to solid practices from their starting lineup and a notable move to shake up their locker room.
But not everything is predictable in this special rundown. Some clubs, like the Las Vegas Raiders, are quite a bit higher than you might expect, solely because the talk of the town is, well, things have gone well for them in camp. (Didn't you hear? Derek Carr has finally "taken over the team" entering his seventh year in the league.)
So let's have some fun. Here's a look at how all 32 teams stack up based on what's gone down in camp:

1. Baltimore Ravens

Lamar Jackson only just recently threw his first interception of camp. Marquise Brown bulked up. Team leaders quickly but wisely escorted Earl Thomas -- sluggish on the field, distracting off it -- out of the locker room. This team is locked and loaded.

2. New Orleans Saints

So much for Drew Brees' offseason controversy derailing their unity. The offensive firepower has stayed healthy, the retooled defense has been energetic, and there's not enough talk about how well stocked they are for a title run.
Looking for some late-round picks that could win your fantasy league? Establish The Run's Evan Silva joins Will Brinson on the Pick Six Podcast to break down that and more fantasy tips; listen below and be sure to subscribe for daily NFL goodness.

3. Seattle Seahawks

Russell Wilson is feeling good. Pete Carroll is throwing shade. Jamal Adams is now part of their defense. Chris Carson is ready to go. Poke fun at their old-school game plans, but few teams are as confident as this one right now -- and can back it up.

4. Dallas Cowboys

No news is good news for America's Team, and outside of maybe Gerald McCoy's unfortunate injury, the 'Boys have stayed out of the headlines, with Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb and a loaded offense ready to explode come September. (Cue the Earl Thomas drama!)

5. Pittsburgh Steelers

It all comes down to this: Ben Roethlisberger is healthy. As a bonus, so is James Conner. The Steelers already own one of the NFL's top defenses, so if Big Ben's camp condition is any indication of what's to come, Terrible Towels will soon be waving across America.

6. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

What more must we say other than Tom Brady is here? Bruce Arians' plan to recreate a makeshift 2014 Pro Bowl roster has its flaws, but still, it's hard to watch No. 12 throwing to Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Rob Gronkowski and O.J. Howard and come away unexcited.

7. Kansas City Chiefs

Make no mistake: They're still No. 1 or 2 in actual power rankings. But losing Laurent Duvernay-Tardif and Damien Williams weren't necessarily small changes. By Week 1, Patrick Mahomes and Co. will prove that camp headlines don't mean anything.

8. Green Bay Packers

Aaron Rodgers has been saying all the right things since Jordan Love's surprise arrival, and now it's incredibly clear, in practice, why Rodgers is still the guy. Does anyone understand how fired up this guy is going to be to prove he's still MVP material?

9. Indianapolis Colts

Philip Rivers is having fun again. Jonathan Taylor is a beast. And while Parris Campbell suffered an injury scare, everything else seems to be clicking as expected. We just might be underrating Frank Reich's squad here.

10. Los Angeles Chargers

Tyrod Taylor certainly didn't seem that exciting entering camp, but he's lit up his supporting cast with the deep ball as of late. Austin Ekeler is his typically shifty self. And the defense has a swagger to match the talent. An underrated contender?

11. Arizona Cardinals

At this point, the Cards hype might be a tad overblown. But then players started raving about how Kliff Kingsbury is running the offense at a "crazy fast" pace. The Kenyan Drake walking boot is a little concerning, but this is still an electric bunch.

12. Las Vegas Raiders

Somehow, some way, Derek Carr is out to prove the haters wrong again. But this time he's actually got a supporting cast. Tyrell Williams' injury isn't minor, but the way they filled out the RB and WR groups has already paid dividends on the practice field.

13. New England Patriots

You might think the Jarrett Stidham injury would send them falling down the rankings, but we all knew Cam Newton was winning this job anyway. The defense, meanwhile, is dominating practice, which should be music to their ears considering their 2020 approach.

14. Houston Texans

Don't look now, but a healthy David Johnson and Brandin Cooks actually make the Texans offense kind of spicy.

15. San Francisco 49ers

There's no denying their firepower, but these WR injuries are starting to hurt. Presently, these are the only fully healthy wideouts on the roster: Kendrick Bourne, Trent Taylor, Dante Pettis, Tavon Austin, J.J. Nelson, Kevin White. It's like a cast of forgotten faces!

16. Los Angeles Rams

You've got to hand it to him: Sean McVay makes one heck of a Jon Gruden on "Hard Knocks." Oh yeah, and Aaron Donald is still freakishly good. Having a healthy WR corps, including Cooper Kupp, has rendered them still relevant in the West.

17. Denver Broncos

The Drew Lock hype has been just loud enough. Considering how much change Denver is working with on the coaching staff, it's safe to say John Elway's squad is moving in the right direction. The K.J. Hamler hamstring injury hampers them a bit, though.

18. Tennessee Titans

Until they make the right move and cover up the Vic Beasley move by adding Jadeveon Clowney, they don't deserve anything higher.

19. Detroit Lions

D'Andre Swift's leg injury is something to monitor, and Matt Patricia does not deserve the benefit of the doubt, but he scored some serious locker-room brownie points by helping the Lions take the first big stand, at least in the NFL, after the Jacob Blake shooting.

20. Philadelphia Eagles

Newcomers like Jalen Reagor have, by all accounts, blended well with Carson Wentz and a redesigned offense. Miles Sanders has been sidelined for a while with a "precautionary" designation, though, and losing left tackle Andre Dillard was obviously notable.

21. Minnesota Vikings

They finally, officially lost Everson Griffen, who doesn't get enough credit for what he did opposite Danielle Hunter. And now, suddenly, there's talk of first-round WR Justin Jefferson taking a slow path to No. 2 WR duties. Call it a so-so stretch in the Midwest.

22. Carolina Panthers

Matt Rhule has this group clicking behind the scenes. Don't you dare count them out for a run at .500!

23. Miami Dolphins

Tua Tagovailoa is on their practice field, folks. That is enough to be juiced up about this franchise. But everything else seems to be moving at a slower pace, from the rehabbing WRs to the transitioning CBs -- like big-money Byron Jones, who's catching up on "D."

24. Atlanta Falcons

It feels like half the talk coming out of Falcons camp has centered on new tight end Hayden Hurst. It's hard to tell whether that's a good thing or a bad thing.

25. Cleveland Browns

It wasn't just an injury bug that infested Cleveland. It was the whole hive. Nick Chubb is apparently fine after a concussion scare, and the offense is still due for a rebound, but it's hard to ignore big losses like Grant Delpit and Greedy Williams on the other side.

26. Buffalo Bills

It's fun seeing Josh Allen throw passes to Stefon Diggs, but lots to be concerned about here: Josh Norman's already buckling as a starting CB experiment, Devin Singletary's got a fumbling problem and ... the team's website writer possibly went rogue?

27. Chicago Bears

This might be resolved come Week 1, but why in the world has their QB competition been so quiet? For Pete's sake, if Mitchell Trubisky won't step up now, when will he? Meanwhile, Matt Nagy is basically begging for more kicker drama to unfold.

28. New York Giants

Not going to lie: Joe Judge taping tennis balls to defensive backs' hands was pretty clever. But if he keeps up the tough-guy stuff, this team's going to literally be running through brick walls by September. They can't afford that after so many injuries and opt-outs.

29. Cincinnati Bengals

Joe Burrow is soaking up the praise, which is great, but can we go one week without another A.J. Green injury? Couple that with arrests and/or physical ailments for big additions Trae Waynes and Mackensie Alexander, and the arrow is pointing down.

30. Jacksonville Jaguars

Maybe Gardner Minshew won some more fans by ... joking that he's invincible in the face of a global pandemic? But this team is largely uninspiring, starting with the fact one of their best players, Yannick Ngakoue, still refuses to play for them.

31. New York Jets

Good on Joe Douglas getting a bunch of nice draft picks for Jamal Adams, but what else garners applause here? Sam Darnold joking about staying out of bars? Adam Gase putting himself on a track to start a 54-year-old Frank Gore over Le'Veon Bell? Yikes.

32. Washington Football Team

Alex Smith making a miraculous comeback is a great story, but holy smokes, talk about an apocalyptic summer. From bombshell harassment allegations to high-profile cuts to internal strife to a literal team re-branding, these guys are like walking TMZ headlines.
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Part 6: Amazing In Depth Essay About Sopranos Symbolism and Subtext (credit: FlyOnMelfisWall source: thechaselounge.net)

Kennedy and Heidi: Vicarious Patricide as Tony’s Decompensation

At the risk of needless redundancy, I think it’s helpful to summarize Tony’s state of mind going into the episode Kennedy and Heidi. His consciousness is teeming with ancient but recently-agitated memories showcasing his father’s violence and toxic influence, like Johnny shooting a hole through Livia’s hairdo and baptizing him in the act of murder. He’s unable to shake stories of parental neglect leading to tragic outcomes for children. He’s painfully aware of Christopher’s hatred of him and desire for murderous revenge, feelings ultimately rooted in the fact that Tony guided him into the same corrupt existence into which he himself had been led by Johnny, Junior, and company, suggesting a reciprocal, if unconscious, rage by Tony towards those men. His subconscious mind is under constant assault from hats and movie posters and coffee mugs bearing the image of a bloody meat cleaver, an emblem of his own lost childhood innocence and inculcation by his father into his brutal, ugly vocation. He is racked with acute but intense guilt over the role he thinks his life’s example has played in shaping his son’s values and poor sense of self-worth. And he is still repressing a mountain of hurt over the fact that his uncle and second father tried not once but twice to kill him, a repression Melfi warned would someday result in a total collapse of his defense mechanisms, that is, a collapse of his paternal hero-worship and related quest for the macho validation that has prevented him from critically examining his father, uncle, and the men upon whom he modeled his life.
Now consider the circumstances immediately before the crash. Tony and Chris are on a routine drive back from business in Christopher’s new black Cadillac SUV (the first Cadillac Chris has ever owned, incidentally.) The conversation turns to life priorities. Chris, conspicuously clad in a Cleaver hat, specifically mentions how Kaitlyn has changed his priorities, and Tony mentions the “shit with Junior”. So the context is immediately pregnant with the fact that Junior shot and nearly killed Tony within the past year and with the fact that Chris is in a new place of responsibility, a position where he is, for the first time, truly the custodian and trustee for another life.
In a perfectly-timed illustration of just how ill-equipped Chris is to live up to those responsibilities, he nervously and repeatedly fiddles with the car stereo, fidgets, and widens his eyes, telegraphing to Tony that he is high as a kite on drugs. “Comfortably Numb” swells on the sound system as Tony stares at him, the lyrics underscoring that, in that moment, he does not see Chris as a youngster, as the “adorable kid” he once road around in the basket of his bicycle, but as a grown man:
When I was a child I caught a fleeting glimpse Out of the corner of my eye I turned to look but it was gone I cannot put my finger on it now The child is grown, the dream is gone
Chris swerves, and the crash happens seconds later.

Tony as the Child in the Carseat

It’s critical to note that Tony initially manifests every intention of helping Chris, even as he’s fighting his own injuries. “I’m comin’,” he says as Chris asks for help. His expression and demeanor only change when he realizes what Chris means by “help”. “I’ll never pass a drug test,” Chris moans. “What?” Tony asks incredulously as Chris is inhaling his own blood. Almost simultaneously, Tony turns towards the back and sees that a tree limb has penetrated the passenger compartment, lodging in Kaitlyn’s car seat like a spear. While Tony would somewhat exaggerate the size of the branch in later narrations of the event, there’s no question that it was large enough to have impaled or seriously injured an infant.
Even after this warning shot over the bow, Tony apparently intends to help Chris, coming over to the driver’s side and breaking the window when he couldn’t get the door open. He draws his cell phone to call for help but stops when Chris again mentions being doped up, which suggests that Chris is more concerned about the legal consequences of his intoxication than about the fact that he is drowning in his own blood, completely belying his claim to a life newly ordered around the lofty priority of fatherhood.
That’s the moment when Tony forms a genuine murderous intent, an intent that has little to do with Christopher’s animosity towards him or the danger that he might flip. Those are conscious, background motives that help Tony rationalize and make sense of his actions later. But the factor impelling him to end Christopher’s life is his own, fundamental identification with the child who might just as easily have been killed or seriously harmed in that carseat.
To objectify this point, there is a slow pan of the limb sticking through the seat as Tony performs the suffocation, clearly not a shot representing Tony’s vision or gaze at that moment but objectively corroborating the earlier angle when Tony glances back and we see the seat from his point of view. The juxtaposition of these shots – subjective and objective – tells me the carseat is not just a convenient excuse for Tony. This is what he’s really feeling. In this moment, he is the phantom child in that carseat, a child whose safety and well-being come second to his father’s corrupt values and reckless self-indulgence, a child whose soul and humanity are metaphorically impaled by riding in and being taught to drive his father’s black Cadillac.
The exclamation point on the symbolism is provided by Christopher’s hat. Incredibly, it remains on his head throughout the crash and suffocation, its bloody cleaver logo pointing towards Tony when the car comes to rest. As Tony acts consciously on behalf of an innocent child, the symbol of his own lost childhood innocence is directly before him. And, for good measure, the cap and logo stare back at him in the hospital from the gurney laden with Christopher’s bloody clothing and the black bag containing his dead body. (The logo antagonizes Tony a final time from his coffee mug the next morning before he angrily tosses the mug into his backyard woods.)
Several points about the suffocation itself are remarkable. First was the look of absolute depravity on Tony’s face as he watched Christopher struggle to breathe. This look was unlike any ever seen on Tony’s face at any other moment in the series. Even when committing other personal and deadly acts of violence, his face and demeanor had always betrayed a commensurate level of animus, an active, passionate intent. In contrast, he reached through the window and pinched Christopher’s nose – and maintained that hold – with remarkable calm. His face and eyes throughout the suffocation were paradoxically both incredibly intense and completely devoid of human emotion, a look far more disturbing than any look of mere rage he’d ever worn before.
Second, although this act was, in my judgment, clearly about the release of Tony’s pent up rage towards his father figures, the method of killing evokes Livia. Besides her conspiracy with Junior to kill Tony (which she rationalized was for his own good) and general obsession with stories of child deaths, she had once threatened to “smother [her children] with a pillow” to save them from a fate she deemed even worse. Tony grabbed a pillow intending to smother her in the season one finale before nursing home personnel intervened. In Members Only, Tony spoke of being smothered with a pillow as a suitable form of euthanasia. Its functional equivalent at the scene of the crash had a definite vibe of putting Chris out of his own – and everyone’s – misery. So, in killing his “father”, Tony was also paradoxically suffocating his “son”, thereby channeling Livia’s filicidal urges and concept of mercy killing.
The most spine-tingling resonance with the scene comes from two season four episodes where Tony’s deep identification with “innocents” – be they children or animals – once again comes to the fore, as does his appreciation for the consequences of Chris continuing to use drugs. In Whoever Did This, Tony warns Christopher that he “can’t be high on heroine and raise kids.” And in The Strong, Silent Type, after learning that a doped-up Chris accidentally smothered and suffocated Adriana’s dog, Tony ominously snaps, “You suffocated little Cossette? I oughta suffocate you, you prick!” It’s such perfect foreshadowing that the earlier episodes seem to have been written with the outcome of Kennedy and Heidi in mind.

Righteous Retribution as the Explanation for Tony’s Lack of Sorrow

As previously noted, the most troubling aspect of the episode from the standpoint of character consistency and plausibility was not the fact that Tony murdered Chris. It was his vacuous expression during the killing and the fact that he never betrayed a moment’s genuine sorrow or regret afterwards. He remained, in fact, defiantly happy and unconflicted about it, especially to Melfi, and was sincerely troubled that neither she nor anyone else could see how Christopher’s death rescued Kaitlyn from a lifetime of risks and harm that she would naturally suffer as the daughter of a drug addict (and mob captain).
In his therapy scenes with Melfi, real and dream, Tony even makes the very contrast I raise, noting that he’s never felt this way after murdering any other person close to him. He alludes to his sorrow over Pussy and specifically allows that murdering Tony B left him “prostate [sic] with grief.” In effect, Tony himself is revealing that this killing feels righteous and justified to him on an instinctive level and is therefore not one about which he can feel guilt or sorrow.
That sentiment makes no sense if his dominant motives were those he talked about in therapy: Christopher’s animosity and resentment towards him after the Adriana hit and his drug-use and consequent risk to flip. Whatever weight those factors carry in justifying murder in the corrupt “ethics” of the mob (which, in any case, is less than the weight of the transgressions by Pussy and Tony B), they carry absolutely no legitimate moral weight outside it and could not sustain in Tony the sense of just triumph that he felt in response to Christopher’s death. What could inspire that sense of triumph is the perceived liberation of a child from a dangerous and toxic father, experienced subconsciously as vicarious retribution for the abuse and harm he himself suffered at the hands of his own father and uncle.

Significance of the Names “Kennedy” and “Heidi”

“Kennedy” and “Heidi” are the names of the young passenger and driver, respectively, in the car that sideswipes Christopher’s SUV before the fateful crash. The girls are barely onscreen a few seconds, just long enough to (somewhat artificially) learn their names in the following exchange:
Kennedy: Maybe we should go back, Heidi! Heidi: Kennedy, I’m on my learner’s permit after dark!
Much forum debate after the first airing of the episode centered around the significance, if any, of these names. I propose a related but even more basic question: why are the girls present in the scene at all?
Tony’s windfall opportunity to murder Chris and pass it off as death from accidental injury was entirely dependent upon being unobserved by others after the crash. Given Christopher’s intoxicated state and inattention to the curvy road while he fiddled with radio controls, a mere swerve and over-correction or swerve to avoid an animal (Tony’s crash with Adriana, anyone?) would have easily sufficed to trigger the accident but without the problematic involvement of another car, the driver of which would have to be made to flee the scene illegally and in contravention of the ethics and instincts of at least 95% of the motorists on the road. So the very fact that another car is involved, complicating both the story and the filming, suggests some symbolic or subtextual design to the involvement related specifically to the momentous event occurring right after the crash.
One aspect of that design is revealed and amplified when a grieving Kelly shows up at Christopher’s wake with dark hair framing her face and large, dark sunglasses covering her eyes. A member of the crew remarks, “Look at her. Like a movie star.” An odd look immediately crosses Tony’s face as he spontaneously responds, “Jackie Kennedy”, noting Kelly’s resemblance to the widow of John F. Kennedy.
In my mind, this striking moment in the episode can have only one purpose, and that’s to evoke Johnny Boy in relation to Christopher via a kind of symbolic math. If Kelly = Jackie Kennedy, then Chris = JFK = Johnny Boy since JFK was the explicit parallel figure for Johnny in In Camelot, the first episode of the series depicting cracks in the foundation of Tony’s paternal hero worship. When that foundation completely crumbles inside Tony’s subconscious a season and a half later, it’s entirely fitting that the JFK/Johnny parallel is renewed.
As for the name “Heidi”, most folks around these parts felt it was meant to evoke the idea of “orphan” because of the famous Swiss orphan tale of the same name and because Kaitlyn (and Paulie) both lost parents in the episode. That’s an entirely plausible analysis that requires no expansion, although I’m inclined to think there’s more to it than that, starting with the analogy of Tony himself to “Heidi”. No, Tony was never technically orphaned, though he arguably suffered more as the son of Johnny and Livia than if he had been. He was certainly deprived of real parental love and guidance, on both sides, and that roughly equates to the definition of “orphan”.
Before discussing this episode for the first time, I never knew that Heidi was the story of an orphan, only that it was some kind of tale for children. And I knew that only because of the epic 1968 football game between Joe Namath’s Jets and the Oakland Raiders, the climactic ending of which (an improbable comeback by the Raiders) was cut off abruptly for television viewers at the end of its scheduled broadcast slot so that a movie version of Heidi could begin airing on time. I was only four at the time of this debacle but recall my parents talking about it – and the considerable chaos it caused at NBC and at telephone switchboards around the country – for years afterwards. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heidi_Game
It wouldn’t become clear until the end of Made In America, but there’s an obvious parallel to the Heidi phenomenon in the wind-up of The Sopranos. Consider that, like the Heidi Game broadcast, Made in America featured an abrupt, unexpected termination of excruciatingly tense action at a penultimate moment, pre-empting audience experience of what appeared to be an imminent and momentous climax. The Sopranos ending may not have disabled an entire telephone network, but it certainly generated an enormous amount of controversy that, for better or worse, persists to this day.
Beyond that, there were enough other football references in the final Sopranos episodes, and especially Jets references, to warrant further consideration of this football connotation for “Heidi”. In Remember When, Tony’s betting losses on Jets football games prompt his call to Hesh for a bridge loan. Later that same episode, Paulie annoys Tony and company with yet another old tale, this one relating how, after witnessing Joe Namath stagger drunk into a bar the night before a game, he bet a load of cash the following day on the Jets’ opponent. In Chasing It, Tony gets inside information on a Jets football game and is irate when Carmela refuses to bet money on it. The episode features a closeup of a large newspaper headline, “Jets Bomb Chargers”.
In Blue Comet, then-current coach of the Jets, Eric Mangini, makes a cameo appearance in Vesuvio, with Artie informing a suitably-impressed Tony so the two can go over and shake hands. News articles at the time clarified that the cameo wasn’t Mangini’s idea but the idea of Sopranos producers, who contacted him months in advance and made accommodations in the shooting schedule around his availability. So this seemed more than a casual desire to have some generic celebrity show up.
That especially seems true considering Mangini was given no dialog and that his meeting with Tony and Artie was only depicted in the silent background of a conversation between Charmaine and Carmela. Mangini’s only purpose on set was apparently to show his face briefly and to have the fact of his identity (Tony has to tell a bewildered Carm that Mangini is the head coach of the Jets) permeate the minds of the audience and the subtext of the scene, which is ultimately about chickens coming home to roost on Tony and Carmela because of the lives they chose.
As alter egos for Tony and Carmela throughout the series, folks who took the proverbial “other path” in life, Artie and (especially) Charmaine engage in subtle gloating in the scene. Football coaching was firmly established as Tony’s “road not taken” in Test Dream, so having an actual football coach present in the episode where the unsavory and downright deadly consequences of his chosen vocation are crashing in all around him provides dramatic ballast. All the better to have the coach in the scene be the coach of the team involved in the Heidi game in view of the ending planned for the following episode.
And speaking again of that ending, the wall behind Tony in Holsten’s is consumed with four large murals specifically brought in by the production crew for the shoot. The largest and most centered depicts a huge, light-colored building with lots of windows, somewhat reminiscent of the Inn at the Oaks in Tony’s coma dream. It’s apparently a high school, however, as it is flanked on either side by images of football players in full uniform with what appear to be names and year of graduation engraved at the bottom. To the side and extreme left is a mural of a tiger and the caption “Class of 1973” at the bottom. The tiger is presumably the mascot for the team and school represented in the other murals. So there is a strong symbolic presence of “football” in the last scene of the series, particularly of high school football from roughly the era when Tony would have entered high school.
Finally, though it may be completely insignificant, when Tony tells Carm about the accident from his hospital stretcher in Kennedy and Heidi, he mentions that he re-injured his knee, “the one from high school.” That certainly sounds like a reference to an old high school football injury.
If these loose strands from multiple episodes are indeed intended to connote football in relation to the name “Heidi”, what does that actually mean in the context of the episode Kennedy and Heidi? What does football have to do with Tony killing Chris or, more precisely, with him killing his father in the guise of Chris?
The linchpin in that symbolism, it seems to me, is Tony’s old high school football coach, the guy who would have been his coach when he originally injured his knee, the guy Tony dreamt repeatedly of trying to silence or kill, the guy whose puzzling duality in Test Dream suddenly makes sense when he’s viewed as a classic, Freudian composite of opposites, specifically a composite of Tony’s opposing father figures with Johnny dressed in the physiognomy of Coach Molinaro by Tony’s subconscious in order to render acceptable imagery of his latent, patricidal feelings.
If you further allow, as I do, that the Johnny look-alike shooting at Tony with a scoped rifle (ala Oswald/”Kennedy”) in that same dream is yet another Freudian “reversal into the opposite” by Tony’s subconscious to disguise his repressed paternal rage, then the Kennedy/Heidi connection is pretty clear. The names are presented proximate to the crash to connote that, in killing Chris, Tony has finally acted out the Test Dream imagery that haunted him for years: he has (symbolically) killed his father, the “Kennedy” and “Heidi” of his dream.

“He’s Dead”

In my judgment, this explains Tony’s otherwise puzzling, peyote-induced insight when he proclaims, “He’s dead,” after winning at roulette on 3 successive spins, prompting him to fall to the floor in spectacular and uncontrollable laughter. What other, real death could have inspired such a euphoric and epiphanic reaction? What real death could Tony only have appreciated while in a drug-induced, altered state of consciousness?
Many felt the line referred to Christopher because he’d just died, obviously, and because Tony’s gambling luck suddenly changed afterward. That analysis never made sense to me.
First, Tony plays roulette at the casino while sober when he first arrives in Vegas and loses every round. Chris was already dead at that time, as Tony well knew and accepted. Indeed, Tony was never in any state of denial about Christopher’s death (or about having killed him.) He embraced it, both consciously and in his dream therapy session with Melfi after the crash.
The “he’s dead” insight occurs only after Tony takes peyote and notices a sudden and complete about-face in gambling luck. Why would he need psychedelic drugs to suddenly realize what he already knew and accepted about Chris? And why would Christopher’s death be tied in his mind to his own gambling luck anyway? No prior connection between those two things had ever been suggested.
On the other hand, Tony’s sudden escalation in gambling, which coincided with the agitation and intensification of his latent rage towards his father(s), could easily be seen as a subconscious rebellion against the stern, anti-gambling lecture Johnny imparted the night Tony witnessed the cleaver incident. To the extent that the rebellion results in huge financial losses and self destruction, it obviously fails. His father retains ultimate power and authority. To the extent the rebellion results in huge winnings, it succeeds, and Tony vanquishes his father.
That conquest was the ineffable and elusive “high” that Tony was subconsciously pursuing in Chasing It but which he could not articulate to Melfi. Thus the sudden change in gambling fortune on his Vegas trip is easily tied in Tony’s drug-altered psyche to a euphoric realization that he has conquered or symbolically killed his father, none of which Tony could appreciate without a vastly altered state of consciousness.
And that leads to why he went to Vegas in the first place. He asks that question out loud to the Vegas prostitute, Sonia, immediately before admitting that Christopher once mentioned taking peyote with her. Tony then confesses to having always wanted to try the drug.
Clearly, then, he didn’t just happen to pick Vegas and didn’t just happen to make contact with this girl. His subconscious was pushing him to that venue because he craved the enlightenment of a peyote experience. So while Tony’s real motives for the murder, and for his otherwise inexplicable jubilance afterward, were completely closed off to his conscious mind, somehow he sensed their existence and yearned to unlock and understand them. However his peyote revelations didn’t stop with simply understanding why he killed Chris.

“I Get It. I Get It!”

Tony’s desert epiphany is a bookend to his near-death coma experience and, I believe, can only be fully understood in relation to it. Yet exploring that relationship is a journey all unto itself, calling not only for consideration of the coma episodes and Kennedy and Heidi but the meaning of the cut to black that ends the series. While exploring the religious and spiritual underpinnings of those episodes is of even more weight and interest to me personally than the issue of Tony’s motives in killing Christopher, it deserves and demands its own, dedicated discussion. For now, I’d simply like to posit what I strongly believe Tony’s epiphany to have been with only minimal argumentation as to why I hold that belief.
The epiphany is presaged when Tony enters the casino on his peyote trip and notes that the roulette wheel is built on the same principle as the solar system. The ball spins round and round the center or “sun” of the wheel because of two delicately-balanced but largely opposing phenomena: the momentum of the ball (which, without the wheel, would carry the ball away in a straight line) and the centripetal force of the wheel (applied by the rim, which continuously pulls the ball towards the center even as the ball’s momentum continuously pulls it on a path perpendicular to the centripetal force.) The antagonism (or cooperation, if you prefer) of the forces gives rise to a unified system: an orbit.
If this sounds a bit like the Bell Labs scientist’s explanation of how two tornadoes are in fact just facets of one, unified system of wind, it’s likely no mere coincidence. As Hal Holbrook’s character argued, separateness is a mirage. The universe, and everything in it, is one big soup of molecules interacting in cause/effect fashion according to laws, making it one whole, not a bunch of discrete parts. “Everything is everything,” as the black rapper reduced it.
That was the philosophy that really made an impression on Tony in the days and weeks following his coma. The principles of quantum physics articulated by Holbrook’s character are likely as close as you can get to a scientific codification of Bhuddism and therefore reinforced much of what the Bhuddist monks conveyed to Tony in his coma. The monks laughed when Tony claimed he wasn’t Finnerty and explained that there really is no “you” and “me, that death would bring an obliteration of individuality. Separate consciousness – and the consciousness of separateness – is an illusion of the living.
So all this laid the philosophical groundwork for Tony’s Las Vegas trip. In that trip, Tony seeks out a girl with whom Chris had slept, then sleeps with her himself. He mentions having refrained from a longstanding desire to try peyote because he always felt the weight of his responsibilities, an implied contrast to Christopher, who always indulged in drugs despite his responsibilities. The idea that Tony was seeking to almost live life in Christopher’s skin in the Las Vegas portion of the episode was something several posters mentioned in first discussions after Kennedy and Heidi aired. Even the girl, Sonia, remarks how similar Tony and Chris are, a somewhat dubious observation that somehow offends Tony but which also helps define his impending epiphany.
That epiphany is spurred when the rising sun flares at him over the desert mountain vista. This recalls Tony’s earlier comparison of the roulette wheel to the solar system. It also resonates completely with the fact that Kevin Finnerty was a solar heating salesman from Kingman, Arizona, a town which, not coincidentally, lies 95 miles southeast of Las Vegas and shares the same desert landscape. Also not coincidental, IMO, is the fact that in the prior episode, Christopher spoke of the perks of joining witness protection and of “living large” in Arizona.
So I believe that, in that desert sunrise on the cusp of Arizona, in fulfillment of his identity as Kevin Finnerty, solar heating salesman, Tony saw his “son” – Christopher – “rise” and realized that, in murdering him days before, he (Tony) was really “rising” as a “son” against Johnny Boy. And in that linkage, he suddenly realized that “everything is [indeed] everything.” He is both Chris and Johnny Boy, both abused and misguided son and abusing, misguiding father. He is murdering uncle and would-be murdered nephew. He is both the mother that sees suffocation as mercy killing and the son who is suffocated. Christopher is both his son and his father. Johnny Boy is Coach Molinaro. “Kennedy” is “Heidi”. Opposites are really two sides of the same coin. In that fleeting moment of insight, Tony was truly feeling “one” with the universe.

The Second Coming

The episode following Kennedy and Heidi is titled The Second Coming after the Yeats poem that grips AJ in the English lit class he’s auditing. While the poem speaks to the bleakness of his depression and outlook on life at that particular time, there’s little doubt that – like everything of substantial weight in the Sopranos universe – it ultimately relates, first and foremost, to Tony. First referenced in the Cold Cuts therapy session dealing with pent-up rage where Tony’s deep shame from the cleaver incident is finally revealed, the poem seems the veritable inspiration for the storyline (as interpreted in this article) that culminates in Christopher’s murder:
The Second Coming By William Butler Yeats
Turning and turning in the widening gyre The falcon cannot hear the falconer; Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold; Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world, The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere The ceremony of innocence is drowned; The best lack all conviction, while the worst Are full of passionate intensity.
Surely some revelation is at hand; Surely the Second Coming is at hand. The Second Coming! Hardly are those words out When a vast image out of Spiritus Mundi Troubles my sight; somewhere in sands of the desert A shape with lion body and the head of a man, A gaze blank and pitiless as the sun, Is moving its slow thighs, while all about it Reel shadows of indignant desert birds. The darkness drops again; but now I know That twenty centuries of stony sleep Were vexed to nightmare by a rocking cradle, And what rough beast, its hour come round at last, Slouches towards Bethlehem to be born?
The widening gyre, the orbit that breaks down when the center can no longer hold, is clearly a parallel to the decompensation of which Melfi warned, the point at which Tony’s defenses after Junior’s second murder attempt could no longer hold and the underlying pathological rage at his fathers would take over. True to the poem, a “blood-dimmed tide was loosed”, inspired by a perverse compassion for the “innocent”. While “the best” all mourned Christopher and thought his death a tragedy, Tony, “the worst”, was full of passionate intensity and could not understand why no one else saw the greater good in Christopher’s death.
The “revelation” occurs in a “waste of desert sand”, imagery easily compatible with Tony’s “I get it” moment in the Nevada/Arizona desert. The uniquely depraved look on his face as he suffocated Christopher is evoked by the line describing a “gaze as blank and pitiless as the sun”. “Twenty years of stony sleep” refers to the decades of denial Tony maintained, the defense mechanisms that kept him all his life from confronting and admitting that, in some very real ways, he hated his father. It’s a figurative sleep that was suggested literally in the noted fact that so many episodes in season 6B started with Tony in a deep sleep. Somnolence was suggested even in the choice of the song “Comfortably Numb” as soundtrack in the moments immediately preceding the crash, the moments right before the hour of the “rough beast” finally arrived. Even the incidentals are perfect allusions, as with the image of “stony sleep” being turned into a nightmare by a “rocking cradle”, or, in this case, by a car seat with a branch sticking through it.
I’m intrigued by the line describing the emerging beast as having “lion body”. It may mean absolutely nothing. But among the story points worth considering in relation to it are the tiger on the wall in Holsten’s and the enigmatic cat in Made In America.
More obscure is the fact that in Remember When, the single episode most explicitly dealing with the violent release of stifled paternal rage, Carter Chong described his grandfather as a “lion” and noted that his father owned “Grumman” stock. (Grumman manufactured a number of high-profile fighter military aircraft, most of them named for some kind of cat, e.g., Panther, Jaguar, Tomcat, Tigercat.) Carter was reviewing these facts to himself in the scene immediately preceding his vicious attack on Junior, suggesting that, in acting out on his stifled paternal hatred, he was adopting the predatory, aggressive characteristics of a wild cat. Notably, when Junior, the paternal surrogate who modeled this kind of aggressive behavior to Carter, was seen at the end of that episode bruised and literally defanged, his sunken mouth void of false teeth, he was stroking a harmless little housecat on his lap. Once a lion, the former mob boss was a lion no more.

Asbestos Dumping as a Metaphor for Tony’s Toxic Spill of Rage

Kennedy and Heidi opens with a controversy between Tony and Phil Leotardo over asbestos disposal. One of Tony’s contractors was removing asbestos from old buildings, while following none of the strict (and expensive) asbestos-handling laws regulating worker and public safety, and was seeking to dump completely uncontained truck-fulls at waste stations controlled by Phil. Phil’s guys were denying the trucks the right to dump. As a consequence, huge, openly-smoking asbestos mounds were building up at job sites.
After Christopher’s death, Tony was doing little to find a solution, skipping town to gamble, get laid, and get high and leaving the contractor high and dry. Finally, near the very end of the episode, the contractor dumps heaps of asbestos at dawn in an open marsh area resembling the New Jersey Meadowlands.
Asbestos is a naturally occurring mineral that gained widespread use in the 19th and 20th centuries as an ingredient in various building industry materials – including wall compounds, insulation, and roofing materials – primarily because of its extreme insulative properties and resistance to heat and fire. In the last 40 years, it’s become better-known for its cancer-causing and toxic effects on those mining and working with it in manufacturing, demolition/remodeling, or other “raw” environments.
Both the heat resistance and toxicity of asbestos make the shoddy removal/dumping storyline a compelling metaphor for Tony’s equally shoddy “dumping” in Kennedy and Heidi. The smoldering heat and flames from his hatred towards his father and uncle were contained beneath his consciousness by an insulating firewall of denial and repression. In essence, this denial and repression was Tony’s psychological asbestos, and it (more or less) contained the heat and fire within him for 47 years.
But it finally broke down, allowing the flames to rage and do damage and necessitating a messy disposal. Unfortunately the breakdown didn’t happen where it should have, in his therapist’s office as the result of honest introspection and dialog about little things like his uncle trying to kill him twice and his father indoctrinating him to murder at 22. That would have been the equivalent of careful, legally-compliant asbestos removal. Instead the breakdown occurred in a roadside ravine and the resulting “waste [in the] desert sand” was every bit as toxic as the smoking piles illegally dumped in the Meadowlands immediately before the desert epiphany and which we saw reprised in the very first shot of the following episode.
Think about that for a moment. Tony’s “I get it” moment was literally sandwiched between shots of noxious mounds of asbestos blowing in the New Jersey wind, a significant clue that some other kind of perversely cathartic disposal was in the middle of that sandwich.

The Orbit of the ‘Blue Comet’: Long Journey to Nowhere

It’s fair to ask: if the broad strokes of my interpretation are valid, what impact did the epiphany have on Tony going forward? After the drugs wore off, did he actually retain any specific understanding of his subconscious motives for killing Chris? Was he left only with the impression that he had enjoyed a very brief moment of enlightenment but without intellectual distillation of the enlightenment itself?
Because the insight was founded upon the secret that he had murdered Chris, even if Tony had retained it, he couldn’t overtly share it with anyone. Still, I lean toward the interpretation that the specifics (at least the ones I proffered) were lost to him when the altered state of consciousness ceased. When he tried to describe the magic of what he experienced in the desert to his crew, he could only come up with the most mundane, inadequate words: “The sun . . . came up.” They all looked at him like he was half retarded.
He was slightly more specific with Melfi, offering that he saw “for pretty certain” that this reality is not all there is. He couldn’t define the alternative but was still convinced there was “something else”.
He did speak in therapy of appreciating a balance and unity in opposites that he hadn’t appreciated before, a “ying” [sic] and “yang”. And he offered that “mothers are like buses . . . the vehicle that gets us here,” but that, once here, we are all on our own, individual journeys (mothers included.) So, to the extent his epiphany comported with what he revealed in therapy, it seems to have had little to do with fathers and with Christopher’s murder and more to do with letting go (finally) of some of his issues with his mother.
But perhaps the best clue to his residual state of understanding came when he indicated that some of what he thought he had grasped in the desert now eluded him. “You think you know, you think you learn something . . . like when I got shot,” he begins. Then, speaking specifically about the peyote experience, he reports that the insight gained is “kinda hard to describe. . . . You know, you have these thoughts, and you almost grab it . . . and then . . . ftt.” He flicks his fingers away from his chin as if to indicate “nothing”. So, to paraphrase Edna St. Vincent Millay, a fragment of what he knew remains, but, apparently, the best is lost.
It wouldn’t take long for all of it to be lost. By the time Tony sits with AJ’s female therapist in Made In America, “going about in pity” for himself because of who his mother was, he has come full circle, essentially back to where he was to start the series. Like a “blue comet”, his orbit was highly elliptical, if not erratic, and carried with it the potential of veering off into deep space or crashing into the sun. But despite killing his own nephew, having a near-death experience himself, and saving his son from an act of suicide, the orbit held. The sober breakthrough never came. The repudiation of his father and of his way of life never took hold in his consciousness. And so, by series’ end, we, like Tony, were exhausted from a long journey that ultimately took us nowhere.
Part 1
Part 2
Part 3
Part 4
Part 5
submitted by FunPeach0 to thesopranos [link] [comments]

More Tales From 2+2: A Very Controversial $70k prop bet

I enjoyed writing up and seeing positive feedback from this post so I decided to write up about an interesting prop bet that came from the 2+2 poker forums that I feel went under the radar. It's way longer than I thought it would be but this story has it all: large amounts of money being bet, furious grinding, 25 buy in swings, community outrage and Doug Polk.

The Site

The modern cash game grinder may be surprised to hear that there used to be a Sharkscope style tracking website for online cash games, it was called PokerTableRatings or PTR. It tracked hands fairly accurately. Today, it doesn’t exist and has been shut down for years but it was a valuable resource for grinders and having one browser open to check out opponents was useful. PTR showed your graph and win rates at different stakes, it also had an achievement system. Some achievements were serious like ‘1 Million Dollars In Profit’ and some were less serious like ‘Check Raise 3 Times In A Hand’. One coveted achievement given by PTR was the ‘Ultimate Grinder’. This was given to the most profitable player each month at each stake, this was all tracked on the Ultimate Grinder Leaderboard. So for example: if you are the top of the leaderboard for 50NL in December 2008, you will receive the ‘Ultimate Grinder December 50nl 2008’ badge on your PTR profile.

The Bets

The year is 2010. Johnathon Duhamel has won the WSOP Main Event. Poker, especially online poker is still booming. The grinders are plentiful. The fish are more plentiful. Posts flow on 2+2 like wine.
Enter Silent_0ne. He puts out a proposition bet on BBV (Beats, Brags and Variance: a subforum of 2+2 which is the precursor to Poker’s weekly BBV thread). Back in the golden days of online poker and 2+2 it was common for large prop bets to be made on BBV. Silent_0ne’s prop bet is he will be the ultimate grinder for December 2010 at 100nl. No easy feat, the previous months' ultimate grinders had won between $12k-18k and Silent_0ne claimed to have never played more than 10 tables or ever played on Pokerstars. The odds were set at 6:1 odds in Silent’s_0ne’s favour. Jalexand42 was selected to be the escrow and judge of this prop bet, so he will be the middleman for the money and he will arbitrate any disputes. The rules were set down covered many different situations. The judge was confident of this:
Jalexand42: Just a quick note about the judging... I'm optimistic there won't be any controversy in this bet the way the rules have been defined. (#83)
He would turn out to be so wrong.
Many 2+2 posters weighed their opinions in and started to place bets:
Chicago Joey (Joey Ingram): damn that is going to be interesting for a bunch of reasons(#46)
Canoodles: If I was OP, I wouldn't take this for less than 100-1. (#18)
Chinz: Settling for 6-1 and doing it on December when lots of SNE chasers are playing really high volume... You don't seem to like money. (#218)
Nearly all the posters doubted Silent_0ne but he seemed confident and Jalexand42 started collecting money.
By the 28th November, with 3 days to go until the challenge begins the bets were placed and finalized, 14 people put up between $600-$3k. Silent_0ne stood to gain $67,500 or lose $11,250 from the bet alone. In just a few days he would put himself at the mercy of variance and would dedicate himself to destroying 100nl. If he overcomes this challenging month, he stood to win a significant amount of money.

The Play

December the first rolled in and Silent_0ne starting playing. It was a rocky start for him, he finished day two down more than $2k and received comments from 2+2 posters like:
ChicagoJoey [Joey Ingram]: lol trainwreck (#392)
MinSixBet: are you still taking action? (#399)
But some posters really believed in him and were rooting hard:
Eaglesfan1: Forget about the leaderboard and focus on your game and playing ur best. (#406)
However things got worse and Silent_one seemed to be losing hope, on day 4 he posted this:
Silent_0ne: just got owned
bad rly bad "hero call" for big pot
set of 8s < set of As
KK < AK
bad river bluff shove
set of 6s < str
10s < Js
AK < AA
AK on AK6 board < 66
AA < 99 on 974 board
^ all greater than 200 big blind pots
could have prevented half of those if I didnt suck so much (#410)
Day 5 and Silent_0ne was doing better but was down a few buy ins, still far behind his target. Remember, he needs to be number one in profit in the massive 2010 pool of 100nl Pokerstars players. He posted this astonishing hand:
Poker Stars $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em $0.20 Ante - 9 players
Silent_0ne: $568.55 UTG+1: $444.30 UTG+2: $519.10 MP1: $226.75 Hero (MP2): $257.70 CO: $250.00 BTN: $100.00 SB: $257.70 BB: $120.90
Pre Flop: ($3.30) Silent_0ne is MP2 with 9h9c
Silent_0ne raises to $4.80, UTG+1 raises to $18.60, 1 fold, MP1 calls $18.60, 5 folds, Silent_0ne calls $13.80
Flop: ($59.10) 2h8s5s(3 players)
Silent_0ne checks, UTG+1 bets $32, MP1 folds, Silent_0ne raises to $92, UTG+1 calls $60
Turn: ($243.10) Kc (2 players)
Silent_0ne checks, UTG+1 checks
River: ($243.10) 4s (2 players)
Silent_0ne bets $127, UTG+1 raises to $333.50 all in, Silent_0ne calls $206.50
Final Pot: $910.10
Silent_0ne shows 9h9c (a pair of Nines)
UTG+1 shows 9dJc (high card King)
Silent_0ne wins $907.10
As you can see, 2010 was truly an amazing place for online poker.
Silent_0ne was bringing out his inner grinder and was playing 16 hour sessions and seeing huge swings in the first week. Day 7 and he posted some hands that shocked the community and his growing fan base:
DPred123: wtf at those HHs. (#520)
Transa: LoLolLololooLOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOL (#521)
Here are two of the hands he posted:
Poker Stars $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em $0.20 Ante - 9 players
Pre Flop: ($3.30) MP1: $365.20 Hero (CO): $342.35 Silent_0ne is CO with 7s7d
3 folds, MP1 raises to $4, 1 fold, Silent_0ne raises to $15.50, 3 folds, MP1 raises to $41.90, Silent_0ne raises to $342.15 all in, MP1 calls $300.25
Flop: ($687.60) ThKc6s(2 players - 1 is all in)
Turn: ($687.60) Ts (2 players - 1 is all in)
River: ($687.60) 2h (2 players - 1 is all in)
Final Pot: $687.60
MP1 shows AcAh (two pair, Aces and Tens)
and:
Poker Stars $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em $0.20 Ante - 3 players
BTN: $656.85 Silent_0ne(SB): $288.00 BB: $345.00
Pre Flop: ($2.10) Silent_0ne is SB with 4d4h
BTN raises to $3, Silent_0ne raises to $12, 1 fold, BTN calls $9
Flop: ($25.60) 3h6d5s(2 players)
Silent_0ne checks, BTN bets $18, Silent_0ne raises to $275.80 all in, BTN calls $257.80
Turn: ($577.20) Js (2 players - 1 is all in)
River: ($577.20) 9c (2 players - 1 is all in)
Final Pot: $577.20
BTN shows 3d5d (two pair, Fives and Threes)
Hero Silent_0ne 4h4h (a pair of Fours)
BTN wins $576.20
Silent_0ne explained:
Silent_0ne: barely ate anything last few days. i just get up and play, dont prepare anything. im playing right now btw. down around 2700$ for the month. im really dumb for spewing off 3k+ just cause i was tilted/ran bad, and snapped. another problem that people overlook is the extra attention i get at the tables for doing this prop bet. lots of regs can exploit my plays and then all tend to focus on owning me. (#554)
Silent_0ne had started the month on a $3k downswing, then won $2.5k before going on another $3k downswing in just one week. He must have felt desperate as after an hour and a half Silent_0ne had an idea and events took a shocking turn:
Silent_0ne: any interested if i give up 100nl and start tomorrow on day 7 at 50nl to try and get the badge there for 6 to 1. i wanna gamble and break even on the month, so im willing to put up 5k on this if any1 is interested? (#570)
This new bet must have seemed too good to be true. At this point he had been relentlessly grinding 100nl for a week, was losing badly, he was tilting, was likely playing more tables than he can handle and he’s a week behind getting to the top of the 50nl leaderboard. The bets started to pour in and within an hour he had 7 people place action. The community commented:
Absurd: This is adsurd (#601)
jalexand42: Seriously, take a day to cool off. (#599)
King Fish: I'd be interested but highly advise you to reconsider this and maybe take an hour and step back. Edit: will take $1800 to your $300 assuming same judge and escrow. (#574)
loK2thabrain: I call dibs on first bet when he moves down to win the 25nl badge. (#700)
Everyone on the thread couldn’t believe what they reading, However, Silent_0ne seemed to accept that the 100nl bet was dead and he wasn’t getting the $67k prop bet win. He was willing to pay the $11k out and enter a new prop bet. Now, being the Ultimate Grinder at 50nl is his goal. Again, the bets were substantial and he had 8:1 odds in his favour for being the Ultimate Grinder for December at 50nl. The same day he made the new bet, he started at 50nl and was off.

The New Bet

Enter Fees. Fees is the 2+2 username of Ryan Fee (Currently on Team Upswing), at this point he was known for being a fearsome 2000nl grinder and writing Ryan Fee’s 6 max guide, which he distributed for free. In a world where succinct and good poker strategy was hard to come by, this was a valuable guide for many players. He takes interest in the thread on the 7th of December:
Fees i'll take all the action, PM me (#746)
Fees booked action late and the details of this booking were not listed in the thread. The next day, Fees acts a question about the rules:
Fees: what if kerpowski or jeffmet wins the ugl and he gets second? (#878)
Kerpowski and Jeffmet are players who took action against Silent_0ne. They are also 50/100nl grinders. The case of fellow grinders taking action was covered in the rules. A poster quotes the rules and informs Fees that they have to be existing 50nl/100nl grinders. Fees then asks the following question:
Fees: i think that implies at the same tables as him, but what if they just play completely different games and just win the ugl?
Remember these probing questions, they’ll become relevant later.
By the 10th of December things looked tough for Silent_0ne, the player of the top of the 50nl leaderboard was already at $2.5k profit (50 buy ins). Silent_0ne was up $1.1k and estimated he was only 2-3 days behind pace. By the 12th of December he was still playing brutally long sessions:
Silent_0ne: just finished 11 hour session, too tired to post anything, ill go to bed for a couple hours then post graphs/hands when i wake up. was tilted throughout entire session, played 12k hands...eyes burn...ran bad for once (6 buyins below ev)
He also posted eight hands that looked pretty spewy, here is one of them:
Poker Stars $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em $0.10 Ante - 5 players BB: $50.00 UTG: $103.40 CO: $137.65 BTN: $133.00 Silent_0ne (SB): $144.60
Pre Flop: ($1.25) Hero is SB with AdQh
1 fold, CO raises to $1.50, BTN calls $1.50, Silent_0ne calls $1.25, BB calls $1
Flop: ($6.50) 6c6d6s(4 players)
Silent_0ne checks, BB checks, CO bets $4, BTN folds, Silent_0ne raises to $14.75, BB folds, CO calls $10.75
Turn: ($36.00) 8h (2 players)
Silent_0ne bets $25.75, CO calls $25.75
River: ($87.50) 4d (2 players)
Silent_0ne bets $102.50 all in, CO calls $95.55 all in
Final Pot: $278.60
CO shows JdJc (a full house, Sixes full of Jacks)
Silent_0ne shows AdQh (three of a kind, Sixes)
CO wins $276.60
Even people taking action against him gave him advice:
King Fish: I am speechless … It's NL50. Stop trying to get so fancy. (#1038)
But then, Silent_0ne has an explosive session and is up an incredible $2800 in one day, that’s 56 buy ins! The posters go wild as he moves into 3rd place on the 50nl Ultimate Grinder leaderboard:
  1. vaike $3,142, 19.38 Hands BB/100
  2. zzn1980 $2,833, 2.46 Hands BB/100
  3. Silent_0ne69 $2,634, 5.19 Hands B/100
For the first time people are starting to believe that he can do this.
Fast forward to the next day, December 13th and with another miraculous winning session he reaches number one on the leaderboard. He has $3.4k profit at 50nl and number two is close behind with $3.1k, if he can maintain his win rate of 6b/100 hands then he should have a very real chance of making an incredible comeback.
14th December. Fees posts:
Fees: still taking action, I want 2:1
Despite Silent_0ne being top of the leaderboard when he posted this and Fees already buying action Fees seemed willing to take 2:1 in Silent_0ne’s favour.
Soon after, a poster in the thread reveals that:
tightmaniac: fees is 4th
It is revealed that Fees who is normally a 2000nl player is playing 50nl HU and is 4th on the leaderboard. HU 50nl still counts towards the 50nl leaderboard. With the higher rate of hands of HU, bigger winrates of HU and Fees' skill, it could mean he would soon reach the top of the leaderboard. 10 minutes after TightManic’s post Fees lowers his odds:
Fees: Looking to take action on this at 1:1 (#1180)
The judge weighs in:
Jalexand42: If fees' didn't disclose this to whoever has his action, it's obviously pretty questionable, although that probably should have been asked. As far as the prop bet tho, I specifically asked Silent whether HU players should be included/excluded and he said included. The rules clearly don't exclude some random player from dropping down and playing $50nl (or $100nl for the original bet). They DO clearly state that people who bet against Silent one as part of the prop bet are NOT allowed to interfere with the bet, but I don't have anything to do with whatever side action fees may have on this. I told kerpowski last night that I didn't want him to play HU to try to win the badge, since I felt like it was a gray area in the intent of the rules (since he obviously doesn't normally play those stakes).
Kind of sucks for OP if this is going on, but I can't really change the rules after it's started since that would affect the people that bet against Silent. (#1196)
As of the 15 December Silent_0ne was still top of the board with $4.4k and most posters were expressing their displeasure if Fees were to continue playing 50nl. Silent_0ne drops this bombshell:
Silent_0ne: ‘2. Actions must be in accordance with the intent of having a fair prop bet. No actions (chip dumping, collusion, ghosting/coaching players on Silent_0ne's tables, etc) can be taken with the intent to affect the outcome of the prop bet. Violations will result in the violator's action being forfeited and may result in additional modification/extention to neutralize the interference.’ [Silent_0ne is quoting the rules here.] ‘The spirit of the bet is that OP is competing against players who 'really' play NL100, both ring and heads up.’
I know a friend of Fees and his friend said he was legit and everything. alittle after the bet started and action was full, fees approached me and my friend about taking additional action at 10 to 1. my friend and I took an additional 2.5k to his 25k and escrowed to wcgrider. the bet was under the assumption that the same rules as the 100nl bet were going to be used, and whatever the judge decides would be final.
so given the quotes above, it is against the rules that someone betting against me should also be able to compete against me given that he does not regularly play at 50nl (he plays 6max 2knl and WON the UGL badge last month at that stake) also, im not allowed to play 50nl HU which is really fishy and easy to win the UGL badge at if you put in enough volume.
regardless of if fees action is with Jalex or not, i think the same rules apply, because he is not a regular at the stakes and he accepted the same rules when making the bet with my friend and I going to eat something then start up a grind session, hopefully I continue to crush and run good, though my heart has sunk when I looked at fees in forth, and I feel ill and tilted (#1205)
Silent_0ne posted that he did a deal, off with main thread with 10 to 1 odds (Fees betting $25k to Silent_0ne’s $2.5k that Silent_0ne will win ultimate grinder 50nl) with Fees and that WCGRider (Doug Polk, currently of Upswing Poker and poker Youtube fame) is the escrow, not Jalexand42. Most posters now seem outraged:
King Fish: Wow what an angle shoot by Fees on this. This does help define the measure of what type of person he is that he is even attempting it. (#1207)
Tumaterminator: sickest hustle ever. (#1210)
kp1022: wait, doeboyfre$h is fees?
he sat me in 50nl HU a few days ago FWIW
after PTR'ing him , i asked why was he playing so low? he replied, "busto" (#1234)
Some of the posters were trying to play Fees at the 50nl in attempt to slow down his winning streak and tell Fees that he is breaking the rules. Silent_0ne expressed his displeasure and downed mental state:
Silent_0ne: this is horrible. im going to start my first grind right now. imo what fees is doing is against the rules and is unfair. i really hope i dont lose alot right now, but im in a pretty poor emotional state
please whoever is decent, sit it up with fees and discouarge him to continue what hes doing. 2knl player won badge last month, makes big bet against me and decides to compete for 50nl badge against me... (#1267)
For the first time in a few days Fees posts:
Fees: Hey,
Just to clear a few things up,
  1. I haven't broken any rules, there isn't a rule that explicitly states that I cannot win the UGL.
  2. I'm not trying to scam/do anything shady/etc, when I made the bet I posted in this thread asking if a bettor could win the UGL […] anyway I'm going to try and win the 50nl UGL this month... I haven't done anything wrong and there is nothing wrong with me going for it.
Then, an enflamed debate about the rules erupts, almost every poster is furious at Fees
Silent_0ne: had a conversation with WCGRider over the phone. the assumption was that jalex is the judge of this bet, and his word is final. WCGRider is simply just an escrow. fees and I agreed on the rules of the bet and having jalex of the judge. #1352
Then WCGRider (Doug Polk) posts for the first time:
WCGRider: Wanted to make a quick post here because i talked to colin earlier about this and i want to clear up a few things.
First off, I was never told i was going to be an escrow. I literally woke up with colins [Silent_0ne] money in my account. I was never asked anything, I was never told anything, I just was sent the money and thats it.
So now im being brought into this to make a decision, which i dont think really is fair. I haven't read any of this thread, I haven't read the rules. Also, fees has to be one of my best friends here in las vegas, and I want that to be clear before i give my opinion about this. I think its sort of unfair that i get put into this situation.
jalexand42 then posts his judgment in a lengthy post (#1526) but I believe this excerpt sums it up:
jalexand42: So, while it is not UNFAIR of fees to be playing $50nl, he has CLEARLY taken actions that will influence the outcome of the bet IF he wins the UGL for $50nl for December. Fees would clearly NOT be playing $50nl (and in fact is still playing his normal stakes) if he didn't have action on this bet. Fees also clearly understood this was a questionable area with regard to the rules based on his posts in this thread and he did not clarify it with the judge. He posts also indicate clearly that he felt he was subject to the rules. Therefore, I rule that Fees' standing on the UGL for December WILL BE IGNORED for purposes of determining this bet if he wins.
Many posters praise Jalexand42. But Jalexand42 does not have the money from the sidebet between Silent_0ne and Fees. WCGrider does. Silent_0ne gives his piece of mind and a quick poker update:
Silent_0ne: yes, i agree with this [Jalexand42's judgment].
also, fees can keep the 25k in the bet without any forfiet. im just really happy things worked out okay.
however i probably should have read this before my session I just played. probably wouldnt have spewed as much at the endodays been my worst day since the start of the 50nl bet so far. gonna play 1 more session later tonight and going to be in alot better and focused mood (#1561)
Then, another bombshell drops, a friend of WCRrider’s reveals that Fees didn’t even escrow his money to Doug:
theskillzdatklls: Afaik, Fees did not ship his $25k share to Doug, only Colin [Silent_0ne] sent his part. (#1669)
2+2 reacts:
Handbaggio: LOL wtf, fees hasn't escrowed his bet??? (#1676)
rnb0sprnkles: LOL and when I thought the drama was starting to die down, the thread gets even crazier (#1698)
Jalexand42 has a conversation with WCGRider to reach an agreement and reports:
Jalexand42: Okay, so here's the summary of my conversation with WCGRider:
  1. He is only holding Silent & the_most's action, $2,500.
  2. He did talk to Fees. Fees told him he was going to talk to Colin [Silent_0ne] today and 'hopes to work out something reasonable'.
  3. I asked what that means, he said he didn't feel like he could tell me, because he felt like what Fees told him was as a friend, but that it sounded fair in WCGRider's opinion.
  4. WCGRider said he thought my decision making sounded reasonable.
  5. WCGrider said that noone told him what to do, so he figured he was just holding on to Silent's money.
  6. I told WCGrider I was willing for him to ship me the $2.5k now if he was feeling uncomfortable, he said he'd wait to see what Silent & Fees work out. ( #1703)
Back to actual poker and Silent_0ne reports a bad losing session on the 16th December citing all the ongoing drama:
Silent_0ne: 22 buyin downswing im playing really bad right now, and I really wish I didn't have to think about and deal with all these other problems.
The community are rooting really hard to him at this point and are all telling him to stay strong. Things start to get messy when Jalexand42 speaks with WCGRider and Fees and in a long post ( #1957) said that WCGRider protested his participation was unfair and Jalexand42 accused him of not of not already sending the $25k to Jalexand42. Fees also tried to offer Silent_0ne a $1k buy out saying it was ‘super generous’, it was refused. Silent_0ne states that the reason fees doesn't want his money escrowed by Jalexand42 is that he is afraid that his bet will be forfeited due to breaking the rules. WCGRider chimed in to defend himself (he also spoke about playing 50nl-100nl and having a rough year, which is interesting as he developed into the top HU player for a time and couldn’t get action, even at the highest stakes.) The 2+2 community then debate and lightly harass WCGRider and Fees to concede and send the money to Jalexand42. Fees finally agrees to a 50% buyout.

The Outcome

On the 17th of December and Silent_0ne slips to number 2 on the leaderboards.
  1. vaike $3,835 ,17.44BB/100
  2. Silent_0ne69 $3,523, 4.25BB/100
Silent_0ne then makes a post that changes everything:
Silent_0ne : Hello everyone
firstly, I would like to say thank you so much to everyone who supported me throughout this bet. i cant stress how much it meant to me to see any post wishing me goodluck, or someone pming me given me some life lessons and more encouragement.
ive been approached by the bettors on numerous occasions regarding a buyout. the original buyout deal offered was 33%. eventually 37% was offered, and then 44%, and finally I agreed on 50% of total wagers from all 6 bettors as their buyout.
I am not really satisfied with a buyout, and I was not the one originally looking for the buyout. the bettors wanted it and I decided to see what they had to offer. what I wanted was time to spend with friends and family throughout the christmas break. With continuing this bet, I do have alot of confidence of accomplishing it, but at the expense of isolation through one of the most special times of each year. My family was mad at me when I tried explaining to them I probably wouldn't be able to particpate in any family events and have much if any celebration of christmas.
my goal the next 14 days was to just grind it out 10 hours each day with breaks inbetween, and sleep. Instead I will be able to go back to my regular, stress free grinding, and shipping 50% of the total wagers after half the month as gone by. In the end, including both the 100nl and 50nl prop bets, I made a net of roughly +20k. The other two options would be risking a net of -20k or a net of +60k. I took the variance free route, and all the bettors did the same thing. None of us wanted to lose the bet obviously, so I think we worked out a fair resolution with this buyout.
I have no hard feelings against fees or wcg rider. Perhaps a different scenerio would have occured if the recent issues did not occur, but thats in the past now and i'm looking forwards to a postive future. (#2511)
So, in the end all the parties involved reached a buyout agreement on the 50nl prop bet. Silent_0ne would stop playing the 50nl prop bet and would be up $20k. The community replies:
Ditch Digger: Silent, nice job. 50% is more than reasonable. (#2516)
kelnel: gg on +20k, u rocked!! (#2520)
shhhnake_eyes: I call this the most anticlimactic finish ever. (#2522)
Link to original thread.
Note: Please note I’ve tried to be impartial in writing this. Please let me know publicly or privately if there are any errors or you feel I misrepresented something or someone. The quotes I’ve included don’t always show the full post made but I’ve included the post number in each quote so you can read it on 2+2 in full context. If you want to be fully informed you should read the whole 2+2 thread.
submitted by GiantHorse to poker [link] [comments]

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