[Fawkes] Mitchell Trubisky opened the season at 100-1 odds to win NFL MVP at @PointsBetUSA and was their largest liability heading into the season. He now has 500-1 odds. Today, they refunded all Trubisky MVP bets.
Division: NFC South (7-9 2nd in the Division) Head Coach: Bruce Arians Offensive Coordinator: Byron Leftwich Defensive Coordinator: Todd Bowles
Intro: Let me Get Something off my Chest
A couple of months ago, I wrote the Buccaneers 32 Teams/32 Days Post. Looking back a it, I’m sticking to my guns on most of my analysis. There’s just…one….little….thing….we need to talk about. Regarding Jameis’s pending free agent status, I said:
There's also the question of QB. Jameis is also a UFA and I'd say there's a...40% chance we re-sign him. So who replaces him, and would an aging veteran QB like Brady or Rivers really be a marked improvement?
[Sneezes in Boston accent] The answer is yes, Fencing Coach, you fawkin dumbass! Did you really think that Jameis Winston was a bettah option than Tawm Fawkin’ Brady 6-time supah bowl champion and enemy of Rawjuh Fawkin’ Goodell? You were fawkin’ wrong! Admit to the good people of Aw/NFL that you wuh just another paht of the fake news media that tried to say Tawm Bwady deflated the footballs and that Bill Belichick used the video cameras for the SpyGates! And who would have evah guessed that we’d end up with Gronk! What a yeeyah! What an offseason you fawkin’ pessimist! We got the GOAT! Get ya Covid immunity TB12 pills and shove ‘em up yuh asshole! [Snaps out of it] Okay, now that I’ve gotten that off my chest, let’s get serious for a moment. This is the final Hail Mary of the underwhelming Jason Licht era, and aggressive moves were made this offseason, because the excuses have finally run out. Since taking over the team in 2014, Jason Licht is on his third head coach (to be fair, Lovie Smith was not his choice) and only has a 34-62 (.35) record to show for, 0 playoff appearances, and only one winning season. Meanwhile, a select list of his GM peers hired since include:
Big moves were made this offseason at the Quarterback position, bringing in a certain 6th round pick out of Michigan to compete with the ethereal and legendary Blaine Gabbert. Jameis was shown the door. And the result is about a case of beer’s worth of cap space and little depth across the roster. Buckle your Bucs, this is going to be a helluvah ride.
Top Offseason Stories
The Tompa Bay Gronkeneers: The biggest news of the offseason was giving Tom Brady a 2 yeaar, $50M contract (fully guaranteed). I won’t be blind to the fact that Tom Brady is 43 years old and clearly on the decline. But Tom Brady on the decline doesn’t have to carry the team on his back when he has Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Rob Gronkowski, Cameron Brate, and Oterius Jabari Howard to throw to. Not to mention, people will be sleeping on the Buccaneer defense. They shouldn’t be (more on that later). Had Jameis Winston cut his 2019 turnovers in half, the Buccaneers would have been a playoff team and he would have been in the MVP discussion. Of course, if my mother had wheels, she’d be a bicycle. The real value of the Brady deal will be in his accuracy and more conservative approach to quarterbacking. Let’s exclude Tom Brady’s rookie year and his 2008 season cut short by injury, and Tom Brady has averaged ~10 interceptions. In five seasons, Jameis averaged ~18 interceptions per season (and dozens more fumbles). Numbers aside, Brady’s value will come in the swagger he brings to the locker room. The 2019 Bruce Arians signing brought in a coach with a track record of winning. Brady’s window is obviously short…very short. But the ride should be fun while it lasts. Then of course, there’s Rob Gronkowski, one of football’s most beloved meatheads. One year post retirement, Gronk put the cleats back on and chose to follow Brady to Tampa (in exchange for a 4th and the Patriots’ 7th round pick). With OJ Howard and Cameron Brate already on the roster, the Gronkowski trade was a luxury move, but will give Brady his favorite all-time target in an offense largely unfamiliar to him. Jason Licht’s approach of building from the outside-in has often worked to his detriment for a team that has always excelled at receiving skill position players…but little else. The Tompa Bay Gronkeneers will be fun to watch. Let’s hope Brady can capture lightning in a bottle. The Jameis Winston Cult of Personality Ends: When Jameis Winston first entered the league, I declared that his ceiling was Brett Favre and his floor was Jay Cutler. Five seasons in and I feel like he got a quarter of the way past Cutler. So how will I remember Jameis? For those of you who were old enough to watch the Jerry Springer show and see a big reveal that Cletus’s wife was cheating on him with the next door neighbor, it sure was entertaining for everyone watching, except for Cletus himself. For five years, Bucs fans were Cletus. Fans of the NFL marveled at his “eating W’s” meme while many of us cringed in embarrassment. You saw 5,000 yards and 30 TD’s. We saw 30 INT’s and 6 more fumbles. The worst part of the Jameis Winston era wasn’t the embarrassment on-field, but the divisiveness he generated off the field. Post-game discussion threads on Buccaneers were riddled with personal attacks should anyone have dared mentioned that perhaps we would have won the football game had he not thrown 18,000 picks. But the worst of all? The discussion that came from his third sexual assault allegation (no, this is not a typo. People forget there were two allegations at FSU). Three allegations were not enough to keep a large contingency of the fan base from defending him, justifying his actions, and of course the classic Redditor “she was just in it for the money” trope. Jameis Winston signed with the Saints this offseason, becoming a division rival’s embarrassment. I still believe he has an on-field future in the league. Perhaps, for now, the comments section will allow for smoother sailing. Perhaps not.
2020 Outlook
Hard to believe that I’m now in Year 6 of writing these offseason reviews for Tampa, and outside of 2017 where I was wildly off on predicting our record, I’ve managed to fall within one victory/loss in each of the other four. The past two seasons, I’ve predicted our exact record. While Covid delays could impact the 2020 season itself, I predict the Tom Brady Bucs will go 10-6, win the wild card, and lose in the Divisional round.
Year
My Prediction
Actual
2015
7-9
6-10
2016
10-6
9-7
2017
10-6
5-11
2018
5-11
5-11
2019
7-9
7-9
2020
10-6
???
Things I Like About the Bucs in 2020
The Defense: The Bucs finished 2019 with the top ranked run defense, led by beefy Tevita Tuliʻakiʻono Tuipulotu Mosese Vaʻhae Fehoko Faletau Vea. Sack Ferret had a breakout year and led the league in sacks, and Jason Pierre-Paul added 8.5 sacks off the edge despite starting only 8 games. Our ILB unit of Lavonte David and Devin White should be among the best tandems in the league. GM Jason Licht has drafted a fine trio of CB’s in Carlton Davis, Sean Murphy-Bunting, and Jamel Dean, and the addition of Antoine Winfield Jr. will add an instant performer. Suddenly, defense isn’t a concern when it’s been in the past.
People on Offense who Touch the Football Through the Air: If you told me a few months ago that Tom Brady would be throwing footballs in Tampa to Rob Gronkowski, I would have recommended you go see a shrink. But in the year 2020, anything happens. The receiving corps of Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Rob Gronkowski, Cameron Brate, and OJ Howard is the best in the NFL, and I can’t be convinced otherwise.
Things That Scare me About the Bucs in 2020:
The Kicking Game: Matt Gay was a 77.1% kicker as a rookie and missed big in some clutch situations. The Jason Licht era has brought in names like Roberto Aguayo, Nick Folk, Chandler Catanzaro, Kyle Brindza, and Cairo Santos (to name a few). None have gotten the job done. Kicker simply can’t be a liability. Gay has to get that % up to the high 80’s. Kickers have lost us numerous games in the last few years. We’re becoming the Minnesota Vikings of the NFC South. A team will only be as strong as its weakest link, and the kicking link has been dreadful.
People on Offense who Run the Football: I’m not sold on Ronald Jones, mostly because his blocking is still horrid and his vision is suspect. He also goes down if he gets hit with the force of a butterfly landing on his shoulder. Shady McCoy was brought in at the veteran minimum, but he was old enough to fight in the Revolutionary War. 3rd round pick Ke’Shawn Vaughn’s ceiling seems like a low one to me and he crosses me more as a utility back than a feature one (more on him in the draft analysis section). The running game is far less important in the NFL of the 2020’s, but there isn’t anyone on this roster who I think can carry the load.
People on Offense who are Supposed to Protect Tom Brady from Dying: Donovan Smith improved in 2019 from abysmal to below average, but below average is what people like Cameron Jordan make mincemeat out of. Tristan Wirfs is a rookie, and rookie OT’s are liabilities more often than not. Ali Marpet is still a stud, and Ryan Jensen improved mightily in year 2 in Tampa. Alex Cappa (RG) is a work in progress and it’s too early to dismiss the guy yet, but progress needs to be made there. For Brady’s sake, this unit has to keep him upright. 43 year olds aren’t meant to withstand hits made with the force of an 18-wheeler.
2020 Draft Analysis
Round/Pick
Player
Analysis
Round 1, #13 Overall
Tristan Wirfs (RT – Iowa)
Admittedly, I always struggle with evaluating OL positions. I thought Chance Warmack, Robert Gallery, and Jason Smith were generational talents. They were far from that. So take what I have to say with a grain of salt, and listen to people like Barian_Fostatewho did an excellent breakdown of Wirfs and Jedrick Wills, with the evaluation noting some glaring flaws in Wirfs’ footwork and hand technique. There’s no denying that Wirfs’ athletic ability is deity level batshit. At 6’5, 320 pounds, he ran a 4.86 forty at the Combine, had a 36.5” vertical, and a 10’1 broad jump. Not to mention, the kid can straight up jump out of a pool and casually hang clean 500 pounds. I wanted to watch how Wirfs performed against some of his incoming peers in the NFL, so I watched his matchup against Pedophilia State University to see how he’d fare against Yetur Gross-Matos, 2nd round pick of the Panthers and future division opponent. The results were…underwhelming. YGM brought constant pressure throughout the game, and seemed to have Wirfs beat from his first step onward, but in the same game, his ability in the run game was eye opening (Example). But then you had cases of sheer lack of awareness on blitzes and also stunts that showed deep areas of weakness for Wirfs. One way or another, this was a necessary pick, and even if he doesn’t pan out at RT, Wirfs’ athleticism and gifted abilities in the run game will make him a long-term key part of the Bucs and a potential Guard candidate.
Round 2, #45 Overall
Antoine Winfield Jr. (S – Minnesota)
Antoine Winfield Jr.’s entrance into the league was a “you’re an old man” moment for us Redditors in our 30’s who grew up watching his “Hall of Very Good” father. This was a pretty pick. While Winfield is of course a safety, the very first thing that stood out to me watching his tape was his pass rush ability. Yes, his pass rush ability. The first couple of clips I put on of Winfield had him perfectly timing a snap from the box and immediately in the backfield by the time the QB had the ball in his hands. The second thing that stood out was his nose for the ball, particularly in clutch situations. As Joe Theismann simply stated: “big players make big plays,” and that couldn’t have been more true of Winfield, who had big time game saving interceptions against both Fresno State and Penn State. Winfield was my favorite pick of the Buccaneers draft class, and what he lacks in size he makes up for in speed and an excellent nose for the ball. Keep an eye out for this one.
Round 3, #76 Overall
Ke’Shawn Vaughn (RB – Vanderbilt)
Ke’Shawn Vaughn was one of the harder players to scout from this Buccaneer class, simply because it looked like he would have been better off with an offensive line of obese, beefy toddlers than whatever Vanderbilt rolled out for him. Nearly every snap I viewed of him, he rarely had a clean hole and was hit in the backfield the moment he touched the ball. Like, seriously, what is this? Vaughn’s biggest strengths to me showed up on tape with designed outside runs. Between the tackles, he showed little elusiveness, and a similar issue I saw with former Buccaneer pick Jeremy McNichol is that Vaughn tended to make multiple cuts before turning upfield. Not a good thing. Unlike a glaring weakness I saw in McNichols’ complete inability to block, it’s an area where Vaughn succeeded with flying colors. This, along with his adequate pass catching abilities (28 receptions for 270 yards in 2019) will make him a valuable 3rd down back in the beginning of his career (assuming RoJo is anointed the feature back). There are some traits in a RB that can’t be coached, like vision. There are other things like running upright with high pad level, a weakness I frequently saw with Vaughn that can be taught. Vaughn crosses me as a valuable utility player who may get looks as a feature back should RoJo continue to struggle. The value was there with his 3rd round selection, but expectations for his upside should be kept in check.
Round 5, #161 Overall
Tyler Johnson (WR – Minnesota)
A lot of the Buccaneers crew is pretty high on the Tyler Johnson pick. Pro Football Focus (PFF) had him top 50 on their big board and a Round 2 grade. I just don’t see it. Not at all, in fact. For a guy who stands at a mere 6’1 and is expected to play slot receiver, his speed and separation stand out as glaring weaknesses on tape. What I do like however, is his footwork coming off the line. Most of the time he’d beat his receivers within the first 5-7 yards off the line, but when it came to the deep ball I didn’t see a lot of “wow” factor. Tyler Johnson, I think, will be a reserve WR, which is exactly what you want from a 5th round pick. But I don’t see him as the massive steal many other fans did.
Round 6, #194 Overall
Khalil Davis (DT – Nebraska)
Played alongside his twin brother Carlos at Nebraska (who went one round later to the Steelers). I watched Davis’s game against Wisconsin and he looked to me like he’d fit best as a backup 5-tech. Not particularly explosive with a slow first step, and there were numerous occasions when he did penetrate the backfield but had terrible angles on the RB. Mind you, he was playing against Jonathan Taylor and a stalwart OL, but you want to see flashes of brilliance, even against good competition. Did not see anything that made me say: “this guy’s going to make our final roster.”
Round 7, #241 Overall
Chapelle Russell (LB – Temple)
I was able to find little tape of Russell, but one area where I do trust Jason Licht is in his ability to scout LB’s. I’m not going to pretend I know anything about Russell. I don’t.
Round 7, #245 Overall
Raymond Calais (RB – Louisiana Lafayette)
Calais’s best shot to make the roster will likely be as a return man, where he excelled at Louisiana Lafayette. Based on the limited tape I saw of him, I saw flashes of Felix Jones for his ability to get big gains off of draw plays in the shotgun. Obviously a longshot to make the roster.
Schedule Predictions
Week
Opponent
Prediction
Analysis
Week 1
@Saints
27-24 Bucs (1-0)
Bucs pass rush finds a way to get to Brees. Fun fact: this will be the oldest matchup of QB’s ever in NFL history…until the Bucs play the Saints again in week 9.
Week 2
Panthers
34-20 Bucs (2-0)
Panthers are no doubt in rebuild mode right now. In the past two matchups, Bucs run game has managed to stifle Christian McAffrey. Keep an eye on rookie Yetur Gross-Matos. I think he’ll have a more immediate impact than even 1st round pick Derrick Brown.
Week 3
@Broncos
37-28 Bucs (3-0)
Always a challenge to play at Mile High on the road, but I think the Bucs defense will manage to shut down a young and budding Broncos offense. On a Broncos note, I’ll never understand Jeudy being the 2nd WR off the board (let alone the 2nd Bama receiver taken). Best route runner I’ve seen enter the league since OBJ.
Week 4
Chargers
28-21 Chargers (3-1)
No, I’m not too high on Justin Herbert, but when the Bucs play a rookie QB, I’m usually prone to pick the other team. For some reason, no matter the Head Coach and/or defensive coordinator, the Bucs crumple into fetal position against rookies.
Week 5
@Bears
31-13 Bucs (4-1)
If Foles’ performance against the Bucs last year is any indication, they have his number. Pray that Mitch Trubisky doesn’t start. In his last outing against Tampa, he threw 6 TD’s. He did that as a rookie, mind you. Remember what I said about Bucs against rookie QB’s?
Week 6
Packers
28-24 Packers (4-2)
Rumors of Aaron Rodgers’ demise are greatly exaggerated. It’s a team that’s just complete enough on both sides of the ball that I find it surprising so many are writing them off.
Week 7
@Raiders
34-31 Bucs (5-2)
Here’s another team that is starting to form well under the cracker Mike Mayock. Raiders will be as good as Carr is in Gruden’s offense, and while he improved somewhat in Chucky’s offense by the end of year 2, this is a team at the tipping point between playoffs and an outright QB replacement.
Week 8
@Giants
37-17 Bucs (6-2)
Though rookie Daniel Jones (sense a trend here?) shredded the Bucs with gusto last year, Bucs run defense should be able to neutralize Saquon, and despite a good rookie showing, I don’t have much faith in the long term prospects of Daniel Jones.
Week 9
Saints
20-17 Saints (6-3)
Can usually count on the Saints and Bucs to split the division series. And once again, the oldest QB matchup ever. Put on some episodes of MASH. Get your Bingo cards ready. It’s geriatric QB time.
Week 10
@Panthers
41-21 Bucs (7-3)
Will there be a season by this point? I don’t know. But I still like the Bucs to sweep the series with the Panthers this season.
Week 11
LA Rams
24-17 Rams (7-4)
Rams offense is all of a sudden looking less like the powerhouse it was from a few years ago, but their defense is still nasty. Aaron Donald will make any QB poop their pants, including Tom Brady. This will be a violent defensive battle and I think the Rams will take the edge.
Week 12
Chiefs
37-27 Chiefs (7-5)
For years on NFL going back to his time at Texas Tech, I told you all to get on board the Mahomes canoe. Love seeing him already building his Madden legacy. I’m just not going to bet against him right now.
Week 13
Bye
N/A
I have no way of confirming this, but I’m fairly certain during the bye week Bruce Arians clears out his office and runs an illegal cockfighting ring with his assistant coaches. You can’t convince me I’m wrong.
Week 14
Vikings
31-28 Bucs (8-5)
Vikings remain a balanced team on offense and defense and the Zim Zamm still can’t be flim flammed. Close game here that will be a defensive battle with a few big time plays on offense sprinkled in.
Week 15
Falcons
34-27 Falcons (8-6)
I’m glad to see Raheem Morris back in a DC position after seeing him work his way back up the coaching ranks. Always one of my favorite Buccaneer coaches despite his (many) flaws. I pick the Falcons in our first matchup because of one man and only one man: Julio Jones. Jones has now played a full 16 games in his career against Tampa, coming up with a staggering 116 catches for 1,841 yards and 11 TD’s. That’s cruelty.
Week 16
Lions
41-14 Bucs (9-6)
I have a feeling by this point in the season, Fat Patricia will be one of the first Head Coaches fired and the Lions will be staffed by Interim Head Coach Darrell Bevell. The Bucs will be playing a team with a wounded ego ready to be put down like Old Yeller.
Week 17
Falcons
28-3 Bucs (10-6)
Bucs fight hard to squeak into the playoffs, their first appearance since 2007.
Final Projection: Bucs win wild card, lose in the Divisional Round
Projected Starting Lineup & Analysis: Offense
QB- Tom Brady: See above analysis. Probably Wrong Projected Stats: 4,438 yards, 67.1% completion percentage, 33 TD’s, 13 INT’s WR1 – Mike Evans: At only 26 years old, Mike Evans already sits at 128th all-time on the career receiving yards list, and has a chance to pass [checks notes] Michael Crabtree on the all-time list this season. In every season in the league, Evans has surpassed 1,000 yards and has become a hallmark of consistency, even with the suspect supporting cast around him. Having an accurate QB for the first time in his career will be a huge benefits to Evans. Probably Wrong Projected Stats: 70 receptions, 1,213 yards, 6 TD’s WR2 – Chris Godwin: Godwin had a brilliant breakout last season, earning 2nd Team All-Pro honors (that probably would have been 1st team had his season not been cut short by injury). While Evans might be the bigger threat, Godwin is among the most complete receivers in the league. A fantastic route runner with sure hands—and perhaps his most overlooked quality is his blocking. Find me a WR who does it better right now. You won’t. Probably Wrong Projected Stats: 77 receptions, 1,387 yards, 7 TD’s RB – Ronald Jones: RB is one of the few positions where fans can reasonably expect instant production from a player when he transitions from the college ranks to the pros. As a rookie, RoJo was a mega dud who could barely find the field in the Koetter era. He took a huge step forward in year 2 (724 yards, 4.2 ypc) but still often disappeared in games and lacked the pass protection skills that are so necessary in Arians’ offense. RoJo will have Vaughn to take off some of his workload, but I still see RoJo as one of the weakest links on an otherwise complete offense. Probably Wrong Projected Stats: 808 Rushing yards (4.2 YPC), 5 TD’s TE – Rob Gronkowski: See above analysis. Probably Wrong Projected Stats: 41 receptions, 614 yards, 6 TD’s LT – Donovan Smith: Donovan Smith provides as much protection as Jeffrey Epstein’s guards when he was on suicide watch. While Tom Brady tends to release the ball far faster than Winston, the Arians offense designed for Brady better be getting the ball out fast. 43 year old QB’s aren’t meant to take the kinds of hits Winston did. Let’s hope that Tristan Wirfs is able to prove himself a viable option on the left side. We’ll be able to get out of Donovan Smith’s contract after this season with no cap ramifications. On a side note, there’s a decent change Donovan Smith will opt out of his contract due to Covid concerns. And I wouldn’t blame him one bit. LG – Ali Marpet: Marpet continues to be the most reliable piece of our OL. Like Lavonte, a continually unheralded player who you can rely on to go toe-to-toe with the league’s best interior DL while manhandling the dregs of the NFL. I thought last season would be Marpet’s shot at a 2nd Team All-Pro, but he was passed over once again. Love Marpet. C – Ryan Jensen: Jensen’s first year with the team was free agent bust material. He seemed to thrive more in the Arians offense and we saw marked improvement in all facets of his game last year. Overpaid for his value? Definitely. Living up more and more to the contract we gave him? Yup. RG – Alex Cappa: When Jason Licht rolled the dice on small school Humboldt State product Alex Cappa, he may have been expecting the next Ali Marpet. In his first full season as a starter, there were things to be encouraged by and I’m a little more bullish on Cappa than most of the fan base. Though he allowed 31 pressures on 562 pass snaps (roughly 6% pressure rate), I saw Cappa’s confidence growing as the season went on. His third season will tell us what his true ceiling in this league is. Right now, his floor isn’t Garrett Gilkey, but his ceiling ain’t Earl Grey. RT – Tristan Wirfs: See above analysis.
Projected Starting Lineup & Analysis: Defense
EDGE – Sack Ferret: The Sack Ferret was brought on a 1 year, $4 million deal last season. I predicted he’d be a 5.5 sack guy and then probably hit free agency again. Just like we all expected, he went off and led the league in sacks with 19.5 (more than his previous five years in the league combined) and earned himself the franchise tag. Barrett has quickly become a fan favorite, and while I don’t see him replicating his majestic 2019 season, I still think he’ll be the same terror he’s been off the edge. Probably wrong projected stats: 12.5 sacks. 0-Tech - Tevita Tuliʻakiʻono Tuipulotu Mosese Vaʻhae Fehoko Faletau Vea: Running on the Buccaneers in 2019 was damn near impossible, so much so that the team only allowed 73.8 rushing yards per game. That success started up front with Vita Vea, who has quickly emerged as the league’s top 0-tech. Unfortunately, like his forefathers in Vince Wilfork and Casey Hampton, he’s likely to spend his career as a valuable defensive cog who receives few to no career accolades due to the “unsexiness” of being a two-gap space eating defender. So NFL, here’s a homework assignment for you. Watch Vea on All-22 if you have some time while on Covid lockdown. You will see one of the most absurdly athletic big men in the league who is your definition of immovable object. His progress last year was a joy to watch and he’s quickly becoming one of my favorite players. Oh, and he’s the best TE on the Bucs. By far. Probably wrong projected stats: 2.5 sacks, 2 receiving TD’s. 5-Tech – Ndamukong Suh: We brought Suh back on another 1 year deal. No, he’s not the player he once was (he’s even refrained from curbstomping genitals in Tampa…so far), but his attitude he sets on the field has been a welcome change compared to the namby-pamby milquetoasts on our DL from the past. Suh’s value will come mostly in the run game. His sack producing days are long gone. Probably wrong projected stats: 3.5 sacks. EDGE – Jason Pierre-Paul: It’s [checks notes] August, and Jason Pierre-Paul hasn’t had an offseason accident. Praise the football Gods. Despite starting in only 8 games last year due to a serious auto accident, JPP managed 8.5 sacks. At 31, father time hasn’t quite caught up with him yet. Probably wrong projected stats: 9.5 sacks. ILB – Lavonte David: The good part of Lavonte David bouncing inside last season to Will is that he no longer got grouped in the same bucket as sack-producing 3-4 OLB’s who beat him out for All-Pro nods nearly every year. Even at 30, Lavonte only seems to be getting better, and his instincts and smarts continue to essential to the defense. Though Lavonte is one half of the Mike tandem and has been one of the league’s best LB’s’ for all of 8 seasons, I don’t think he’s going to be the centerpiece stud. Keep Devin White’s name at the forefront of your mind, which leads me to... Probably wrong projected stats: 3.5 sacks, 3 INT’s ILB – Devin “Get Live 45” White: If you’ve read any of my posts here for the last 5+ years, you would see I don’t take a blind homer approach with player evaluation. Not once have I predicted a Buccaneer would win the MVP award, nor have I predicted a Buccaneer would win DPOY. In fact, only once have I ever predicted we’d be a playoff team. Now that preamble is done, let me say it outright: Devin White is going to win Defensive Player of the Year in Year 2.What? Mikes never win, you say. And you’d be mostly correct. In fact, Vegas odds don’t even have Devin White listed in their top 10. Here’s what I saw from Devin White in the last half of his rookie season: an absolutely insane nose for forcing the fumble, excellent pass rush abilities, and smarts that put him in the backfield often before the RB even had the ball in his hands. I saw enough from him to believe his leap in year 2 is going to be similar to that of Luke Kuechly’s where he won DPOY in his second year in the league. Wherever the ball is, Devin White will be there. You’re going to see one of the league’s dominant defensive enforcers for a long, long time. Probably wrong projected stats: 6.0 sacks, 5 INT’s, 6 FF’s. FS – Antoine Winfield Jr.:See above analysis. I think we’re also going to see Justin Evans get cutProbably wrong projected stats: 2.0 sacks, 2 INT’s SS – Jordan Whitehead: Jordan White is the most underrated player on the Buccaneers defense, in my eyes. No, not Lavonte, because people talk about how underrated he is all the time to the point he’s not so underrated anymore. Whitehead’s mistakes went down drastically last year and he has a knack for being where the football is. Really like him and could see some big plays from him this season. Probably wrong projected stats: 1.0 sacks, 3 INT’s CB – Carlton Davis: Bruce Arians doesn’t give empty praise, but he recently called Carlton Davis a top ten CB in the league, an assessment I’m inclined to agree with. He was battle tested big time in year 2, getting targeted 105 times and only allowing 52.4% of those balls thrown his way to be completed. He was able to shadow the best, and his 18 pass breakups are indicative of a guy with great awareness. And the funny thing is, he’s not even the CB I’m highest on with this roster. Probably wrong projected stats: 4 INT’s CB – Jamel Dean: For a guy who came in as a 3rd round rookie, Dean exceeded expectations and then some. His first game as a starter came against the Seahawks, there’s no sugarcoating it—he got owned. But what I saw was a guy who stayed stride for stride with his receiver with little help over the top. By the end of his rookie season, he was looking like a shutdown corner. This is the CB I’m most excited for in 2020. Kid’s got a bright future. Probably wrong projected stats: 3 INT’s CB – Sean Murphy-Bunting: When I’m wrong, I admit I’m helluh wrong, and with Murphy-Bunting, I was helluh wrong. Yes, it’s been only one season and things could still go south, but I was baffled when we passed on Greedy Williams in favor of SMB.
Non-Buccaneer Predictions for the Season
My 2018 breakout player prediction was Patrick Mahomes. Last year, it was Joshua Jacobs and Corey Davis (oops). This year, you need to watch J.K. Dobbins (rookie, Baltimore), N’Keal Harry (2nd year, NE). Perhaps not a true breakout, but I think Calvin Ridley will surpass 1,000 yards and become an even bigger complement to Julio Jones.
MVP will go to Russ Wilson. DPOY will go to Devin White (and if you’ve been reading these posts long enough you know I don’t usually go the homer approach). OPOY will go to Patrick Mahomes. COTY will go to Cliff Kingsbury.
The NFC Championship will be played between the 49ers and the Cowboys. The Cowboys will win. The AFC Championship will be played between the Kansas City Chiefs and the New England Patriots. The Chiefs will win. The Chiefs will repeat in the Super Bowl, defeating the Cowboys.
Last year I wrote: “Sam Darnold isn’t going to amount to much as an NFL QB. Not this year, and probably not ever.” I’ll repeat it this year too. But let me add one guy to that list: Tua Tagovailoa.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire isn’t the superstar you think he is. I think his career will wind up like Joseph Addai’s: a guy who had a few flash in the pan seasons but never among the top backs. That’s not a bad thing, I would just cool expectations on him.
The teams with the highest potential to land a top 5 pick, in no particular order: Lions, Jaguars, the Washington Football team (I feel like an idiot even typing that), Bears, Jets. Dark Horse: Eagles.
Coaches who have the hottest seats: Fat Patricia, Dan Quinn, Adam Gase, Doug Marrone, Bill O’Brien (as coach and GM).
Shoutouts
Shoutouts to my fellow mods on Buccaneers and NFL. It's a pleasure working with you all every day and shooting the shit with dank memes. And of course, much love to platypusofdeath who puts an insane amount of work into this series every year. Thank you for all you do.
NFL teams most likely to go from worst to first in 2020
We have talked a lot about the draft, biggest remaining needs for every NFL team, some breakout candidates and other stuff, so let’s now get back to more of a big picture and look at some teams from an angle of where could they go next season. In this article, I am analyzing those teams that finished fourth in their division this past year and why they could win it in 2020 or land at the bottom once again, plus an outlook where I actually see them. Of course much of this is about these eight teams and how much better or worse I feel about them than the general public, but it was heavily dependent on their three division rivals as well. The top half I could certainly see earn a playoff spot and surprise some people if everything goes right. After that a lot of my faith is more built around the lack of great competition and giving some hope to these respective fan bases. As the cliché goes – everybody is 0-0 right now. https://preview.redd.it/rs90lt6ckf751.png?width=720&format=png&auto=webp&s=3ddfc8945862472b52b5ef8c69076acde904c44c
1. Arizona Cardinals
Why they can win the division: Let’s just start with the main point here – this Cardinals squad has all the ingredients to make a big jump in 2020. I expect Kyler Murray to enter the superstar conversation in year two, after impressing with his arm talent and ability to extend plays in a (somewhat controversial) Offensive Rookie of the Year campaign. Steve Keim managed to unload a bad David Johnson contract and basically acquire an elite receiver in DeAndre Hopkins for a second-round pick. Kenyan Drake now has a full offseason to learn this offense and make himself a major factor once again, following up an outstanding second half of the season once the Cardinals traded for him with Miami. He perfectly fits into this offense with a lot East-West based rushing from shotgun sets and his involvement in the pass game, including those quick throws as an extension of the rushing attack. Arizona’s defense should be a lot better with run-stoppers being added in the draft that fit their 3-4 base front with Utah’s Leki Fotu and LSU’s Rashard Lawrence, since they can stay in those packages against the other teams in their division running a lot of 12 and 21 personnel probably. Add to that a do-it-all player with ridiculous range and overall athleticism in Isaiah Simmons at eight overall, plus all the other guys being in their second year under DC Vance Joseph. I love Budda Baker as a missile from his safety spot and I think some of the other young guys on that unit will take a step forward, like second-year corner Byron Murphy, who I talked about last week. Now let’s get to rest of the West – every other team in that division has some issues. The 49ers are facing the objects of a potential Super Bowl hangover and some limitations with Jimmy G at the helm. The Seahawks have question marks on the edge on either side of the ball with Cedric Ogbuehi and Brandon Shell fighting for the starting gig at right tackle and Jadeveon Clowney still on the open market, with a bunch of draft picks these last couple of years having to step up. And the Rams had one of the worst O-lines in football last season and they lost some pieces on defense. The Cardinals already gave all these teams issues in 2019 and have now added pieces that were clearly missing when last matching up against each other. Why they could finish last again: Most importantly, I am still not completely sold on the Cardinals offensive line, with D.J. Humphries being signed to a rather expensive deal as a below-average left tackle, third-rounder Josh Jones – while earning a late first-round grade from me – still needing an overhaul on his footwork before he can slide in at right tackle and guard Justin Pugh finally having played a full 16 games for the first time since 2015 last season. NFL coaches had a lot of time to study Kliff Kingsbury’s Air-Raid offense, which when you break it down is pretty simplistic in the amount of schemes they run. Yes, he diversified it a little as last season went along, going under center and running some pro-style rushing plays, but at its core, you can learn how to create some issues for all those mesh concepts and spread sets. As far as the Cardinals defense goes, it is more about pieces than proven commodities. Patrick Peterson is seemingly on the decline, they are thin in the secondary and could Chandler Jones follow soon, after he has been one of the most underrated pass-rushers in the league for a while now? You are staring the reigning NFC champs in the eyes, a team that was a few inches away from earning a playoff bye and another squad that went to the Super Bowl just two years ago. This is probably the best division in the entire league. Bottom line: I still believe the 49ers have done enough to repeat as division champs, re-tooling for all the losses they have suffered this offseason. However, I’m feeling pretty good about the Cardinals earning a wildcard spot. While I believe in the Seahawks quarterback and the Rams head coach respectively to not allow their teams to not have throwaway seasons, I also see enough issues with those squads to make me believe the Cardinals could have the second-best year of anybody in the West. To me they are pretty clearly the best of these eight teams, because they have a young phenom at quarterback, stars at pretty much every position, a different type of system around them and what I’d like to call “juice” coming into 2020. https://preview.redd.it/anrr9erfkf751.png?width=720&format=png&auto=webp&s=5655b4452baff2691a0e060e8d70918d58801a4c
2. Detroit Lions
Why they can win the division: Matt Stafford is back healthy and when he was in the lineup last season, this was a team that defeated the Eagles, Chargers and only didn’t finish the job against the eventual Super Bowl champion Chiefs because of some crazy stuff going on late. The veteran QB stood at 19 touchdowns compared to five picks and was playing at a near-MVP type level. However, Detroit’s identity will be built on the run game with re-investments in the offensive line as well as adding D’Andre Swift to form a dynamic one-two punch with him and Kerryon Johnson. Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones may be the most underrated receiving duo to go with Danny Amendola as a tough guy in the slot and T.J. Hockenson coming into year two as a top-ten pick a year ago, having shown flashes when he was healthy. The defense is finally starting to take shape with third-overall Jeffrey Okudah as an elite corner prospect being added to an underrated secondary, Jamie Collins being a chess piece in the front seven after already having worked well with Matt Patricia and some young guys up front trying to prove themselves to go with the versatile Trey Flowers. Maybe more importantly than the Lions themselves – Nobody else got that much better and none of the other three really stand out to me. Other than the Vikings probably – who had the advantage of making a record-breaking 15 selections – the Lions might have had the best draft within the division. Thanks to that last-place schedule, they get to face the Redskins in the East (instead of Eagles & Cowboys) and Cardinals in the West, who I just talked about taking a step forward, but are still a better draw than the reigning conference champions or possibly having to travel to Seattle. I believe that new regime in Detroit has finally built an identity on both sides of the ball with the heavy investments in the run game and back-seven on defense. Winning ten games might earn you a division title, if everybody plays each other tough. Why they could finish last again: Can these guys finally stay healthy? Matt Stafford to my surprise played a full 16 games in eight straight years before last season, but a lot of that had to do with his toughness to fight through pain and he had major issues with that shoulder early on in his career before basically breaking his back after putting the team on it for the last decade. Kerryon Johnson has missed 14 of 32 possible starts and he has never carried the ball more than 118 times a season. Their receiving corp has been banged up quite a bit too. More glaring even – how will all these additions of former Patriots players work out? Can Matt Patricia build a New England 2.0 in Michigan or is he just bringing in players he knows will listen to him and the way he wants things to be done? Detroit could also rely on a lot of rookies to be immediate impact players – possibly two new starting guards on offense, running back D’Andre Swift probably sharing the load with Kerryon, Jeffrey Okudah having to immediately become their CB1 and Julian Okwara being asked to become a much more consistent player if they give him major snaps. And I recently talked about how their uncertainty at punter could be an issue for their ball-control, defense-minded style of play. They also have an early bye (week five), which I’m never a big fan of, after facing the Bears, Packers, Cardinals and Saints, which probably includes three playoff teams. If Chicago can get any competent QB play, all these teams should be highly competitive. Bottom line: I don’t think any team in this division wins more than ten games. Unfortunately I don’t see the Lions go over that mark themselves either. The Packers won’t come out victorious in so many close games (8-1 in one-possession affairs), the Vikings have lost a few proven commodities and look for young talent to immediately replace those and the Bears still have a quarterback competition going on. So if Detroit can do any better than just split the season series with those three teams, I see them finishing above .500, but ten wins is the ceiling for me. In terms of the competition inside the division, the Lions may be my number one team in this conversation, but I see a much clearer path to things crashing down for Matt Patricia and them having another disappointing season than I do with the Cardinals. No team in this division may finish below that 8-8 mark. https://preview.redd.it/7ivo914ikf751.png?width=720&format=png&auto=webp&s=d029ddd274b78e78f5bc932d00086b8c697a466e
3. Miami Dolphins
Why they can win the division: When you ask the general public, the Buffalo Bills right now are the favorites to win the AFC East, but they haven’t done so since 1995 and they still have to prove they really are that team. The Patriots lost several pieces on defense and Tom Brady of course, which probably leads them to starting a quarterback, who over his four career pass attempts has thrown more touchdowns to the opposing team than to his own. The Jets are still building up that roster, with GM Joe Douglas trying to plant seeds on burnt earth, and they face a BRUTAL schedule. So Miami has a lot of things going in their favor for an organization that I believe in what they are trying to build. Depending on what happens at quarterback, you could have a veteran in Ryan Fitzpatrick, who was by far the best inside the division in several key categories last season and/or Tua Tagovailoa, who had one of the most prolific careers we have seen from anybody in the SEC. They added at least two new starters on the O-line, they now have one of the premiere cornerback trios in the league with the all-time highest paid player at the position in Byron Jones and first-round pick Noah Igbinoghene to go with Xavien Howard and with some added beef up front, they are finally looking a lot like what Brian Flores had in New England. DeVante Parker really broke out over the second half of 2019 and Miami should have a much better rushing attack because of the additions up front and two quality committee backs in Jordan Howard and Matt Breida being added. They have two other young pass-catchers ready to break out this upcoming season in tight-end Mike Gesicki and a UDFA receiver from a year ago in Preston Williams. Whenever Tua’s name is called upon, he will be a perfect fit for Chan Gailey’s horizontal passing game. Why they could finish last again: As much as I like what I see from this entire organization, it is probably just a year too early for Miami. So many young players could be thrown into the fire and a lot of them I look at as needing that experience – 18th overall pick Austin Jackson (USC) is more of a developmental tackle still with his footwork and hand-placement issues, 30th overall pick Noah Igbinoghene (Auburn) has only played cornerback for two years and was bailed out by his athletic tools at times, third-rounder Brandon Jones has to develop more of a feel in deep coverage and at least one more rookie lineman will likely start for them. Even outside of this year’s draft class, they already had several players on their roster that are still moving towards their prime. Whether you look at last year’s first-rounder Christian Wilkins, a lot of second- and third-year pass-catchers or their young linebackers outside of Kyle Van Noy. The Bills are entering year four of that turn-around under Sean McDermott and Brandon Beane, the Patriots still have the greatest coach of all time and will be a tough matchup solely based on that and the Jets at least have people playing for their jobs, plus a very talented young quarterback I still believe in. As much as I doubt Adam Gase, as long as Sam Darnold doesn’t get mono again, the offense should at least be competent, and the defense could potentially have a top-five player at every level with All-Pro Bowl safety Jamal Adams, an 85-million dollar linebacker in C.J. Mosley and my number one prospect in last year’s draft on the interior D-line with Quinnen Williams. Bottom line: As I mentioned before, the Bills are the front-runners in this division for me. As much respect as I have for Bill Belichick, I haven’t seen enough from Jarrett Stidham to make me a believer and he shrunk in some big moments at Auburn. The Jets to me could be a lot better than they were in 2019 and still go 6-10 just because of the type of schedule they are up against. So the Dolphins to me could easily finish anywhere from second to fourth, depending on how some of the players on that roster progress. I wouldn’t bet on them actually making the playoffs, but they could absolutely be a pain in the butt for some of the better teams in the AFC and in 2021 they might be the pick here. https://preview.redd.it/nme3explkf751.png?width=720&format=png&auto=webp&s=3998c6026125c1b9b48438e3fc9afaf9601b116e
4. Los Angeles Chargers
Why they can win the division: First and foremost, this Chargers defense is absolutely loaded with no real hole that you can point to. Derwin James is back healthy after a first-team All-Pro rookie campaign, Chris Harris Jr. comes in to make this secondary one the elite units in the NFL to go with two more Pro Bowlers among it and they have some guys I expect to break out like Jerry Tillery, Drue Tranquill and Nasir Adderley. In terms of having matchup pieces and a versatile pass rush to challenge Kansas City, nobody in the league may be on the same level as these guys. Offensively, Ihave talked about how the left tackle spot is concern for L.A. with a battle between Sam Tevi and Trey Pipkins for the starting job, but the other four spots are as good as they have been in a while, acquiring Pro Bowl guard Trai Turner via trade, signing a top five right tackle in Bryan Bulaga and getting Mike Pouncey back healthy. Tyrod Taylor can steer the ship and even if Justin Herbert is thrown into the fire – which I wouldn’t recommend – they have the skill-position players and willingness to run the ball to take pressure off those guys. While the Chiefs return 20 of 22 starters from a year ago, this wouldn’t be the first time we saw a Super Bowl champion have some issues the following season and as much as we want to hype up the Broncos and Raiders, both their quarterbacks (and other players of course as well) have a lot to prove still. Outside of KC, the Chargers likely have the smallest changes to what they do other than moving on from Philip Rivers and we saw that formula work the year prior, when they challenged Kansas City until the very end for the division crown and the conference’s top seed potentially. While they probably would have liked to bring in Tom Brady over the offseason, the fact they decided against signing Cam Newton to a roster that is ready to win right now, shows you the confidence they have in that quarterback room. Why they could finish last again: I’m not a huge fan of Derek Carr, but the Chargers will probably have the worst quarterback in the division in 2020. And their starting left tackle could be the worst in the entire league. As good as their defense will probably be, you can not consistently win games in which your offense doesn’t put up 20+ points in the league today – especially when all these teams in their division have spent so much on acquiring offensive firepower these last couple of years. I believe all three of their division rivals got better this offseason and the Chargers spent their top draft pick (sixth overall) on a young quarterback, who might not even help them win games this season. As I already mentioned, Kansas City brings back almost their entire starting lineups and they went 12-4 despite Mahomes seemingly having his knee cap facing the sideline while laying on his back. I have uttered my thoughts on Denver several times now, which you can read up on later. As for Las Vegas’ new team, they did start last season 6-4 and just heavily invested into their two major issues – wide receiver and linebacker. And while I don’t like to talk about it – injuries have been a huge issue for this Chargers team in recent years and I don’t really know what it is even, but I can’t assume that they all of a sudden can stay healthy. Bottom line: In terms of talent on the roster outside of the quarterback position, you could make a pretty compelling argument that the Chargers are ahead of all the other teams on this list. That’s the reason they have a pretty high floor of finishing around .500 and if everything works out, they could absolutely be a playoff contender. However, for this exercise in particular, I believe their upside is capped by what they have under center. Tyrod Taylor can be a top-20 quarterback in the NFL this season and in terms of upside, Justin Herbert has all the tools to become a difference-maker once he steps on the field, but they don’t have the explosiveness the Chiefs or the Broncos have for that matter. With so much continuity on a team that has the best player in the entire league, I can’t go against the Chiefs and in the end we are evaluating the chances to actually win the division. https://preview.redd.it/rywropjokf751.png?width=720&format=png&auto=webp&s=ed77a7303af810b862abb2100c4f0b86841a2d38
5. Washington Redskins
Why they can win the division: These guys are very reminiscent of the 49ers with their defensive line, in terms of having invested a lot of high draft picks into the unit these last couple of years and now with that second overall pick bringing in a true stud from Ohio State – this time in Chase Young. When you look at all those guys up front – with the Bama boys patrolling the middle, Matt Ioannidis capable of moving around the front, Montez Sweat looking to break out in year two and Ryan Kerrigan still being there as a productive veteran – they will wreak some havoc this season. Ron Rivera could finally bring some structure to this organization and help them turn it around on defense with the addition of an old companion in Thomas Davis, plus some high-upside players like Reuben Foster and Fabian Moreau looking to prove themselves. Quarterback Dwayne Haskins had a very underwhelming rookie campaign, but he clearly wasn’t ready to be out there and found himself in a bad situation in terms of the support system around him. I like a lot of their young skill-position players the front office has surrounded him with, when you look at Terry McLaurin trying to become a young star in this league, who produced despite shaky quarterback play last season, Kelvin Harmon and Antonio Gandy-Golden being two big-bodied targets I liked these last two drafts, Derrius Guice hopefully finally being able to stay healthy to lead this backfield and this year’s third-round pick Antonio Gibson being a chess piece that you can manufacture touches for. Somebody I forgot to mention in this discussion recently is Steven Sims Jr., who is a jitterbug with the ball in his hands. New offensive coordinator Scott Turner will implement a system that should make life easier on his second-year signal-caller as well, while relying heavily on the run game. Why they could finish last again: Haskins is by far the least proven QB of the bunch, with Daniel Jones even being head and shoulders above him in their respective rookie seasons. No pass-catcher outside of Terry McLaurin had any major production to speak. Counting on a 37-year old Thomas Davis to not only be a leader for them, but also make plays on the field, could create issues, and Washington lost some pieces in the secondary. This offseason is a challenge for any team, that is looking to implement a new system on each side of the ball, but I think especially for a motivator like Rivera, who can give his squad a heartbeat and push them to success, not being there in person with those guys will hurt. Most importantly however, this division to me will be a two-man race between the Eagles and Cowboys – as it has been for a while now. They both will likely have top ten quarterbacks, better receiving corps, better offensive lines and more experienced defenses. The Giants may not blow anybody away coming into 2020, but looking at the two matchups from last year between them and the Redskins, Big Blue beat them 24-3 the first time around, when Daniel Jones threw one touchdown compared to two interceptions and then he diced them up for five TDs and no picks in week 16. The one area Washington would have had the clear upper hand was with their front-four, but New York just invested a lot of draft capital into their O-line to prevent that. Just go through the Redskins’ schedule and show me more than six wins. I dare you. Bottom line: These last two sentences really say it all. Even if Philly and Dallas split the season series and Washington can get a game off either one of them, it will be tough to turn around this squad as quickly as this season – with reduced practice time and team activities – to a point where they can finish above both of them. Both of them could easily win double-digit games in 2020 and while I think the Redskins are on the right track if Haskins looks more like the Ohio State version of himself, other than their defensive line, no unit for them is ready to compete for the division quite yet. Just going through their schedule in an objective manner, it is tough to find any lay-ups and say Washington has some baseline of wins they count on. To not have them any lower than this is more due to the respect for Riverboat Ron and how high I was on a lot of the guys they drafted recently. https://preview.redd.it/szpawv9rkf751.png?width=720&format=png&auto=webp&s=62ca5fe882d8155d83eb3328e9bf1f1681a17384
6. Jacksonville Jaguars
Why they can win the division: I was going back and forth between my number six and seven teams, because the Jaguars are projected to pick first overall come next April for a reason – they did lose a lot of pieces. However, to me it came down to the fact that the AFC South might be won at 9-7 or 10-6 and this coaching staff actually has to win to keep their jobs. There is a lot noise about the Colts, but when you go back to last season, Philip Rivers was a turnover machine with serious questions about his arm strength. Bill O’Brien made some very questionable decisions for Houston and Tennessee is counting on a formula that is built on a 250-banger running the ball 25+ times and Ryan Tannehill finally repeating a career year, as they are coming off an AFC title game appearance. As far as Jacksonville goes, Gardner Minshew was the highest-graded rookie quarterback according to PFF and altogether I would have put him second only behind Kyler Murray. D.J. Chark broke out as one of the young star receivers and I had a first-round grade on Colorado’s Laviska Shenault if he can be healthy, because his talent is off the charts. I think the O-line would have benefitted from another tackle to kick Cam Robinson inside to guard, but those guys are some road-graders to make the run game work. Defensively the only real contributor from that Sacksonville group a couple of years ago who actually wants to be there is Myles Jack, but I really like their young duo off the edge in first-rounders Josh Allen last year and now K’Lavon Chaisson (LSU). There are some questions about the back-end, but they were built front-to-back with a lot of zone coverage behind it and depending on the development of ninth overall pick C.J. Henderson, they can roll away from him matching up with the opposing team’s number one receiver. Avoiding some of the better AFC squads altogether is pretty sweet as well, to go with facing no playoff team from last year outside their division until the middle of November. Why they could finish last again: I’m just not sure if all of these players are ready to fight for that coaching staff and organization. Two of their remaining veterans (Leonard Fournette and Yannick Ngakoue) have openly talked about how they want to be traded, they only have a few actually proven commodities on that entire roster and with the way they have unloaded big cap numbers, they have set themselves up for a true rebuild potentially, as they are expected to be in the Trevor Lawrence-Justin Fields sweepstakes come next April. Even if they can get a few breaks and the division is up for grabs, does this organization even want to win this season? If not for the injury to Jacoby Brissett in the middle of the season, all three other teams in that division would have almost certainly finished above .500 and the Colts are actually the team that improved by far the most among them. That Texans, who have actually won the South four of the last five years, including last season, may be the smallest challenge and still sweep Jacksonville. Vegas rarely misses completely and the Jaguars right now are the odds-on favorite to pick first overall come next April, with an NFL-low OveUnder of 4.5 wins on the season. And as favorable as the early portion of their schedule looks like right, check out this eight-game stretch after their week seven bye – at Chargers, vs. Texans, at Packers, vs. Steelers, vs. Browns, at Vikings, vs. Titans, at Ravens. Ouch. They might go winless over that period. Bottom line: The Jaguars to me are a very interesting team, because I believe they have accumulated a bunch of young talent, which gets lost a little when you see all the names that aren’t there anymore. There is a lot to like about this roster, when you look at what these players could develop into, but that doesn’t mean they will have success this year already. The Colts have the best 53 currently in the division (or 55 now), the Texans have the best quarterback and the Titans are coming off an AFC Championship game appearance. Gardner Minshew could make this kind of a tough decision if they end up picking anywhere after first overall and I think some of those other kids will put up pretty good numbers, but they are still pretty clearly fourth in the South as for now. https://preview.redd.it/5myv276vkf751.png?width=720&format=png&auto=webp&s=7fb25f47d0759e9b5a07876ea01787898c6cc817
7. Carolina Panthers
Why they can win the division: Nobody knows for sure what Matt Rhule and his new coaching staff will throw at them. Joe Brady gets to work with Teddy Bridgewater once again, who he already coached in New Orleans – so there will be familiarity for him in this system and they already “speak the same language”. That young receiving corp with D.J. Moore, Curtis Samuel, free agency addition Robby Anderson and even an up-and-coming tight-end in Ian Thomas is pretty underrated actually, plus of course they have one of the truly elite weapons out of the backfield in Christian McCaffrey, who is probably set to break his own RB reception record once again. The Panthers defense-only draft has brought them a monster in the middle in Derrick Brown (Auburn), a really talented edge rusher in Yetur Gross-Matos (Penn State) on the opposite of last year’s rookie stud Brian Burns, a super-rangy safety with linebacker size in Jeremy Chinn (Southern Illinois), what I think is a starting corner in Troy Pride Jr. (Notre Dame) and some other pieces in the secondary. The talent is clearly there and now you bring in a scheme that is probably going to be unique for the NFL level as well, when you look at that 3-3-5 Baylor ran under Rhule and defensive coordinator Phil Snow. As much as we want to praise our legends of the game, the quarterbacks of the two front-runners in this division will be 41 and 43 years old respectively and let’s not forget that Atlanta started out last season 1-7. Why they could finish last again: Especially this offseason, without certainty if there will be anything like training camp or even a real preseason, that completely new staff with new systems they are trying to teach will certainly have some growing pains. Bridgewater has been a top-20 starting QB maybe one year of his career and even when he was applauded for the way he filled in for Drew Brees last season, he finished dead-last in intended air yards among quarterbacks with at least 100 pass attempts. How will that mesh with a lot of vertical targets around him? When he has those guys running free on slants and dig routes, the ball will get there, but will he be willing to throw that deep post or give his guys a chance on go-balls? Defensively they are counting on a lot of young players and they have nobody to even come close to replacing Luke Kuechly, as well as making the switch to an unproven scheme possibly, if they actually use some of those 3-3-5 looks coming over from Baylor. When you look at Rhule’s track-record, it always took him until year two to show improvement and then in that third season is when those teams can really make some noise. And that was in the AAC and Big 12 respectively. Now he is in the NFC South with a team that just went 13-3 in the Saints and a Bucs squad that already was 7-9 and lost six of those games by one score, only because despite finishing fifth in takeaways, they ranked in the bottom five in turnover differential due to easily leading the league with 41 giveaways. That should get a lot better with Tom Brady coming in, who has never even quite thrown half of Jameis Winston’s 30 interceptions in any of his 20 years in the league. Even the Falcons – for as poorly as they started last season – went 6-2 after really coming together and making some changes in their bye week last season. Bottom line: The Panthers are clearly the most unproven team in this division. While new systems that haven’t been scouted yet certainly have an advantage in terms of game-planning early on, especially in this offseason with heavily limited live reps most likely, that might equal a net minus. You have to root for a guy like Teddy Bridgewater and the way he has worked his way up to a starting spot again, but I just don’t look at him as a surefire franchise signal-caller. The other three teams in the South all have top ten quarterbacks in the league in my opinion and much more continuity around them. Until the Panthers finally get to their bye week at the start of December, I don’t see them winning more than four of those twelve games. At that point they may have their eyes on a different goal already, if Teddy B isn’t the clear answer under center. https://preview.redd.it/y7agj2n2lf751.png?width=720&format=png&auto=webp&s=221af0a1f689d3b19d5e250fac0b58a35877edad
8. Cincinnati Bengals
Why they can win the division: We’re not that far away from 2015, when the Bengals won the AFC North with a 12-4 record as the fifth year in a row making the playoffs. Since then this is the first time I feel like there really is change happening with this team. Marvin Lewis was replaced by a young Zac Taylor, trying to prove himself to the league, they drafted Heisman trophy winner Joe Burrow first overall to replace as average a quarterback as we have had over the last decade in Andy Dalton and the front office finally spent some money in free agency. While you would think a quarterback going first overall usually comes into a situation, where he is devoid of talent around him, Cincinnati suddenly has one of the better group of skill-position players in the entire league, assuming A.J. Green is back healthy. Tyler Boyd is a stud in the slot, who will be Burrow’s version of Justin Jefferson, a 50-50 ball specialist in second-round pick Tee Higgins (Clemson) matches perfectly with Burrow’s expertise of winning with ball-placement and if they get anything from former first-rounder John Ross at least as a decoy with his speed, that’s a plus. I expect Joe Mixon to be among the league leader’s in running back receptions and be more effective in space with those receivers around him as well. The signings the Bengals have made on defense gives them a lot more talent and complements very well what they already had. D.J. Reader is one of the most underrated defensive linemen in the league and frees everybody up along the front, they completely overhauled that linebacker group, which was a major issue these last couple of years, they brought in a starting CB2 and nickel from Minnesota to pair up with William Jackson III, who is ready to announce himself as one of the best corners in football, and Von Bell is a great match with the rangy free safety Jessie Bates. Why they could finish last again: As talented as all those guys throwing, catching and running the ball may be, it all starts with what’s happening up front and the Bengals offensive line is still in transition. They could have two of the worst starters in the league at both guard spots and right tackle once again, with the prior ones close to reaching that bust status and Bobby Hart still somehow having a starting job. As great as Joe Burrow was last year at LSU and how clean his evaluation was, how much better than Andy Dalton will he be right away, especially going up against those scary defensive fronts inside his division? Defensively they could easily have six new starters, which obviously can be looked at as a positive sign, considering they allowed 20+ points in all but two games last season, but there is also a lack of continuity and reduced time to fit all those pieces together. Cincinnati’s coaching staff hasn’t really proven anything yet and they will be facing a massacre of a schedule, with three occasions of back-to-back road games and while three of their final four games of the season are at home, they will face the Cowboys, Steelers and Ravens, to go with a trip to Houston in-between. If they don’t beat the Chargers in the season-opener, they probably don’t get that first W until week four against the Jaguars and then they have to hope they can sneak out another one until their bye week. Baltimore is tied with Kansas City for the highest projected win total with reigning MVP coming into just his third season, Pittsburgh is favored to make the playoffs with Big Ben back under center and Cleveland was the offseason favorite in 2019, while fielding an even better roster this year. Bottom line: I feel bad for putting this team last, because I thought Joe Burrow was the top quarterback and definitely worthy of that number one pick and the Bengals finally spent big money in free agency to retool the defense. To me this is less about them than the Ravens, who just were the number one overall seed in the playoffs at 14-2 and haven’t done anything other than get better themselves, a Steelers team that made a run at the playoffs with the worst quarterback play in the league now getting Ben back and a Browns roster that is among the top ten league-wide in most people’s opinion. Still, there is a lot to like about this team at the skill-positions, which is probably behind only Cleveland in terms all the weapons they have, some young standouts on defense and hope that all of this brings a fresh breath of air. If you enjoyed this content, I would really appreciate if you could visit the original piece (with video clips) - https://halilsrealfootballtalk.com/2020/06/16/nfl-teams-most-likely-to-go-from-worst-to-first-in-2020/ You can also listen to my breakdown on Youtube - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R9kCcuPobNU
Division: NFC West Record: 9-7 (3rd in Division, 7th in Conference) After a wildly successful 2019 season, the Los Angeles Rams had high hopes for 2020. It was truly Super Bowl or bust for the team, and unfortunately as high as the expectations were the end result was disappointment almost as high. Despite the shortcomings (and media doubt), the team is still in great shape to have another great year and playoff hopes are completely within shooting distance. Here's a brief summary of some of the positives and negatives on the 2019 season. Positives
Over half of our draft class showed real signs of being potential starters for 2020. Bobby Evans and David Edwards stepped in due to injuries and had success. Taylor Rapp was one of the leagues best rookie defenders, and will definitely start in 2020. David Long Jr filled in due to injury occasionally through the year and showed a glimpse of the player he could be after some development.
Cooper Kupp emerging as a potential top 10 WR. I'm just going to lean into the joke, because the dude is honestly the scrappiest WR we've had in a long time, and he puts in serious work. He can make a decent argument for being in the conversation as the best route runner in the NFL.
Despite the season being a disappointment as mentioned above, the fact that as a Rams fan I can look at a year where we went 9-7 and narrowly missed the playoffs as a disappointment has to be viewed as a positive. I've been a fan for my entire life, and wallowing in the years from 2006-2016 has been pretty rough. To have expectations again is nice.
Negatives
Jared Goff, the most frustrating QB next to Jameis Winston. His rookie year can hardly be counted against him, so after seeing him have a pretty successful 2017 and then a flat out great 2018 was tremendous, and really set the bar high in 2019. To be frank, Jared Goff managed to disappoint in many games this year. Almost off of this disappointment can be attributed to overconfidence rather than bad decisions. Goff doesn't have an issue reading defenses consistently rather he has an issue with thinking he can fit throws in tight windows that he can't consistently place. Taking what the defense gives him has been a problem for Goff throughout his career and in 2019 it was on full display.
We had one of the most predictable defenses in 2019, and having star players like Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey would rightfully make fans think some level of razzle dazzle could be drawn up. We never really saw that in 2019 and teams took advantage.
Our run game never could be consistently established. Our offense starts with the OL and the zone blocking scheme, and with the decline of Todd Gurley, and many injuries sustained on the OL, the run game could hardly ever get established.
2020 Coaching Staff/Changes
Position
Name (* indicates new coach)
Notes
Sean McVay
Head Coach
Total babe
Joe Berry
Assistant Head Coach/Linebackers Coach
Thad Bogardus
Assistant Defensive Line Coach/Defensive Quality Control
Dope name
John Bonamego
Special Teams Coordinator*
Previously with the Detroit Lions
Thomas Brown
Running Backs Coach*
Previously with the South Carolina Gamecocks
Liam Coen
Assistant Quarterbacks Coach
Previously WRs coach
John Cooley
Defensive Quality Control*
Previously Akron CBs Coach
Andy Dickerson
Assistant Offensive Line Coach
Ejiro Evero
Safeties Coach
Dope name
Eric Henderson
Defensive Line Coach
Aaron Kromer
Run Game CoordinatoOffensive Line Coach
Zak Kromer
Offensive Quality Control
lol nepotism
Bill Nayes
Assistant to the Head Coach
insert The Office joke here
Kevin O'Connell
Offensive Coordinator*
Previously with the Washington REDACTED
Wes Phillips
Tight Ends Coach
Aubrey Pleasant
Cornerbacks Coach
Zac Robinson
Assistant Wide Receivers Coach
Was Assistant QB coach in 2019
Chris Shula
Outside Linebackers Coach
Brandon Staley
Defensive Coordinator*
Previously with the Denver Broncos as OLB Coach
Shane Waldron
Pass Game Coordinator
Eric Yarbor
Wide Receivers Coach
Key Changes
The loss of Defensive Coordinator Wade Phillips is a bummer, but something that was absolutely needed. This series I believe was the nail in the coffin for Wade's tenure with the Rams. And while the man has a historic legacy as a coach, ultimately he has a noticeable trend of running the same schemes and without much adjusting throughout the season, and opposing teams inevitably catch on to what he's doing and they counter. This same trend seemed to happen Denver as well. There is no doubt that the son of Bum will be missed, but ultimately I think Wade's hire was primarily to serve as a mentor for McVay while he figured out what it was like to be a head coach in the NFL. Now that McVay has three full seasons under his belt, that need is no longer there. Brandon Staley can be the energy the Rams defense desperately needs, and he could provide a similar spark that McVay set off when he first arrived.
The bigger bummer is the loss of Special Teams Coordinator John "Bones" Fassell. I know what you're thinking, how can a STC possible be more valuable than the legendary Wade Phillips? Coach Bones had been our STC since 2012, as well as serving as interim head coach in 2016 after the firing of Jeff Fisher. Bones was a true leader of men, and is in the conversation of the best STC in the league. In memorandum of this loss, I want to share my all time favorite Coach Bones moment
Free Agent Signings and Departures
Key Signings
Player
Position
Former Team
Contract Details
Michael Brockers
Defensive Tackle
LA Rams
3 y31.5 million
Andrew Whitworth
Offensive Tackle
LA Rams
3 y30 million
Austin Blythe
Offensive Guard/C
LA Rams
1 y3.9 million
A'shawn Robinson
Defensive Tackle
Detroit Lions
2 y17 million
Leonard Floyd
OLB/Defensive End
Chicago Bears
1 y10 million
Key Departures
Player
Position
New Team
Contract Details
Greg Zuerline
Kicker
Dallas Cowboys
3 y7.5 million
Todd Gurley
Running Back
Atlanta Falcons
1 y5.5 million
Dante Fowler Jr
OLB/Defensive End
Atlanta Falcons
3 y30 million
Cory Littleton
Linebacker
Las Vegas Raiders
3 y36 million
Marquis Christian
Safety
New York Jets
1 y2 million
Jojo Natson
PKR
Cleveland Browns
1 y1 million
Clay Matthews
OLB/Defensive End
Free Agent
n/a
Eric Weddle
Safety
Free Agent
n/a
Nickell Robey-Coleman
Cornerback
Philadelphia Eagles
1 y1.35 million
Lets start our discussion with the departures, because we lost a lot of key starters. Dante Fowler, Cory Littleton, Clay Mathew, and Eric Weddle were four starters on our defense, with NRC being our primary slot DB. Weddle was more of a leader than an anchor on defense, and did a remarkable job mentoring his replacement in rookie Taylor Rapp. Clay Mathews had a nice season but at his age is certainly replaceable. What isn't going to be replaceable is Cory Littleton, who might be one of the most underrated linebackers in the NFL. His coverage ability is going to be sorely missed and leaves the linebacker room, which was already weak, almost defunct. The strategy regarding our free agent signings is a little mysterious. In early free agency we signed Floyd and Robinson, which filled two holes left by Fowler and Brockers, who had originally signed with the Baltimore Ravens. A few weeks afterwards Brockers offer was rescinded by the Ravens, and he resigned at a lofty amount. This effectively leaves the team with a log jam at defensive tackle, with two DTs that do virtually the same thing to be paired with Aaron Donald. I'll explain later in this post how I think our defense might look, but it's certainly a puzzling signing. Resigning Whitworth, in what should be his final contract, is a nice bonus even if it was for another larger than anticipated deal. It gives our numerous young OL talent a wonderful vet to learn from, and despite media reports our offensive line room actually isn't bad. It's just incredibly young, and we have many sophomores who look to make jumps this year.
2020 Draft Class/Undrafted Free Agents
Round
Pick
Player
Position
College Team
2
52
Cam Akers
Running Back
Florida State
2
57
Van Jefferson
Wide Receiver
Florida
3
84
Terrell Lewis
OLB/DE
Alabama
3
104
Terrell Burgess
Safety
Utah
4
136
Brycen Hopkins
Tight End
Purdue
6
199
Jordan Fuller
Safety
Ohio State
7
234
Clay Johnston
Linebacker
Baylor
7
248
Sam Sloman
Kicker
Miami (OH)
7
250
Tremayne Anchrum
Offensive Line
Clemson
Cam Akers and Van Jefferson are the only players on offensive who should make an immediate impact. Akers could battle for the starting position with Gurley out, and Jefferson could battle Josh Reynolds for WR3. The intriguing pick is Terrell Lewis, who could have been a 1st rounder if healthy. He fills a major need at EDGE for the team, and if he works out will be a massive value pick. Brycen Hopkins will battle with Johnny Mundt for the final TE spot, which may be a tall order given Mundt's proficiency on special teams. But he's a good prospect to replace Gerald Everett, who will demand a larger contract next year. Tremayne Anchrum is probably a longshot to make the team, especially with no preseason games considering we have a logjam of OL prospects with Bobby Evans, David Edwards, Joe Notebloom, among others. For more information on the UDFA list, check out this link. The interesting choices are Easop Winston, Josh Love, and Bryce Perkins. Easop I think may have a decent shot at making the roster, while Josh Love and Bryce Perkins may be able to battle it out for the backup position. The Rams will look to shed future salary cap space where ever possible, and both players have decent ceilings and could be a cheap backup alternative for Goff, but both will have to usurp AAF legend John Wolford who is the leader in the clubhouse.
Projected Depth Chart/Scheme Changes
Offense (* indicates rookie)
Position
1st
2nd
3rd
QB
Jared Goff
John Wolford
RB
Malcom Brown
Cam Akers*
Darrell Henderson
WR
Cooper Kupp
Van Jefferson*
WR
Robert Woods
Nsimba Webster
WR
Josh Reynolds
Easop Winston*
Trishton Jackson*
TE
Tyler Higbee
Gerald Everett
Brycen Hopkins*
LT
Andrew Whitworth
Bobby Evans
Tremayne Anchrum
LG
Joe Notebloom
David Edwards
C
Austin Blythe
Brian Allen
RG
Austin Corbett
Coleman Shelton
RT
Rob Havenstein
Jamil Demby
The first thing that I envision changing for this Rams offensive is to break out of our traditional 11 personnel into more 11 or 22 based packages. Sean McVay has made no secret about our change to a running back by committee team, which makes sense given the different types of backs we have on the roster. Malcom Brown probably gets the start due to his veteran presence, and because he's a traditional runner of the football. But Cam Akers and Darrell Henderson are both Alvin Kamara-like backs and can open things up for McVay to get more creative. An interesting camp battle will be to see who makes it at wide receiver. Kupp, Woods, Reynolds, Jefferson, and Webster are all locks to make the team, but we will probably carry 6-7 on the roster. I'm partial to Easop Winston and Trishton Jackson to fill those voids but other guys like JJ Koski could also impress and camp and make an impact. As the season goes on, the Rams are going to hope that at least one of these rookies can manage to impress enough to replace Josh Reynolds, as both him and Cooper Kupp are in contract years and we probably won't be able to afford to resign both. On the offensive line front, I'm really excited to see the development that Bobby Evans, Joe Notebloom, and David Edwards show. Make no mistake, if our team is to have flexibility moving forward it is absolutely vital that one, if not all three, of these guys pan out. Luckily, due to injury Bobby Evans and David Edwards were given starting jobs and performed really well all things considered. Evans in particular was given the task to block Jadeveon Clowney and Khalil Mack and really held those guys to minimal impact. As a quick update, the only member of the team to opt out of the 2020 season is OL Chandler Brewer, who was probably a good bet to make the team as a backup OL. In his place I slot Jamil Demby who's been a prospect on the team for what seems like a decade. In any other year, I'd slot a rookie to take over that slot but given the lack of a structured offseason I think the team stays with someone familiar for another year. Defense (* indicates rookie)
Position
1st
2nd
3rd
DE
Leonard Floyd
Ogbonnia Okoronkwo
DT
Aaron Donald
Sebastian Joseph-Day
Greg Gaines
DT
Michael Brockers
A'shawn Robinson
DE
Samson Ebukam
Justin Lawler
LB
Micah Kiser
Kenny Young
Travin Howard
LB
Terrell Lewis
Clay Johnston*
CB
Jalen Ramsey
Darious Williams
CB
Troy Hill
Donte Deayon
CB
David Long Jr
Adonis Alexander
S
John Johnson III
Jordan Fuller*
S
Taylor Rapp
Terrell Burgess*
Our biggest change in identity is going to come from the defensive side of the ball. Losing Wade Phillips is a huge blow to the leadership of the team, but newcomer Brandon Staley may be able to provide a McVay-like spark in ingenuity that provides results. The way that the Rams targeted safeties in the draft, and avoided a massive need in linebacker, makes me believe that we are transitioning to a DB let system similar our neighbors in the LA Chargers. If you do film study on the Chargers, you can see them run a package that consists of 7 DBs occasionally, which works well when you have physical safeties like Derwin James. Luckily for us, we have two incredibly physical guys in Johnson and Rapp, and with the team clearly focusing on DBs I think its in the cards for us to roll this package out in 2020. One area that might be a struggle for us is going to be our defensive line, and generating pressure via the pass rush. Luckily again, we have the greatest defensive player in the NFL and the greatest defensive tackle of all time on our team. Another fortunate circumstance is that we no longer will be marred by Wade Phillips conservative play calling, and in fact may be able to use DC Brandon Staley's expertise as an OLB coach to get improvement out of guys like Okoronkwo and Ebukam, In free agency we signed A'Shawn Robinson, who paired with Michael Brockers can be a force against the run, but neither player is a threat to rush the passer. Leonard Floyd, another free agent signing, is another guy who is strong against the run but struggles in pass rush. This area of defense will be key to the success of the team, and these guys are gonna have to find ways outside of relying on Aaron Donald to generate pressure. Special Teams (* indicates rookie)
Position
1st
K
Sam Sloman*
P
Johnny Hekker
LS
Jake McQuaide
PR
Trishton Jackson*
PR
Nsimba Webster*
Losing Greg Zuerline is going to hurt, and he will always have a place in Rams history for making clutch kicks in the 2018 NFC Championship game. But he grew inconsistent especially inside the 40 yard line, and struggled with injuries since 2017. We drafted Sam Sloman in 2020 but also have two decent UDFA that will compete for the starting job..
Projected Game Results
Week 1: Win (1-0) Dallas Cowboys @ Rams - NBC Sunday Night Football Opening the season at the new SoFi stadium, with potentially no fans is going to be an odd experience. The last time the Rams beat dem boyz was in the 2018 Divisional round of the playoffs. Both teams will struggle early to find continuity, and I'd expect a relatively low scoring, run heavy game. In the end I think the Rams will get the season off to a good start with a win. Rams 24 Cowboys 17 Week 2: Win (2-0) Rams @ Philadelphia Eagles - FOX 10am PST We should finally get to see Goff vs Wentz healthy in full game for the first time. The Eagles have beat the Rams both times they've played Sean McVay, and I think they get things back on track in 2020. I believe our strength at the DL and DBs will be able to effectively manage the weaknesses of the Eagles WRs and aging OL, though the key will probably be Zach Ertz. Rams 30 Eagles 28 Week 3: Loss (2-1) Rams @ Buffalo Bills - FOX 10am PST Our first stumble will come against an underrated team in the Bills. I think having two close games in a row to open the season will leave the team waiting for a crash, and how else to crash than by facing what might be the best defense in the NFL. I expect Tre White and the rest of the secondary to handle Goff and company in a convincing loss. Bills 23 Rams 10 Week 4: Win (3-1) New York Giants @ Rams - FOX 1:05PST Home sweet home, the Rams get back on track with a convincing win over a struggling Giants team. I'll predict an offensive explosion from Goff, somewhere around 400 yds and 4 TDs in a blow out win. Sorry Giants fans, nothing personal. I'm expecting an early struggle for this Giants team as it adjusts to new coach, young QB, with little prep time.Rams 42 Giants 16 Week 5: Win (4-1) Rams @ Washington [REDACTED] - FOX 10amPST I think this gsme is much closer than most might expect. The [REDACTED] are my surprise pick of the year, I have them winning the NFC East. An already tenacious defense led by Ron Rivera and gaining a bona-fide star in Chase Young is going to be fun to watch. I think the key to this game will be quick passes to avoid that ferocious defensive line as much as possible. Rams 24 [REDACTED] 21 Week 6: Loss (4-2) Rams @ San Fransisco 49ers - NBC Sunday Night Football As much as I want to win this game, I think Shanny and those fucks take this one from us. Divisional games tend to be unpredictable and chaotic, and while I do think we split the series with them, being on the road for this one isn't going to favor us. Its going to be interesting to see how DC Brandon Staley chooses to defend Kittle. I dont think shadowing him with Ramsey is the best play, perhaps it's a combination of jamming him at the LOS and covering him in zone. Either way, its a tall order for whoever gets that assignment. 49ers 31 Rams 25 Week 7: Win (5-2) Chicago Bears @ Rams - ESPN Monday Night Football As it stands, McVay will be 1-1 on the year in prime time games. His record as a coach is , which leads me to believe he'll have an edge in winning this one. Of course the Ram fucker Foles might be in at QB, which could spell disaster for our team. I think that our offensive prowess will shine during this long week, and we win in convincing fashion. Rams 36 Bears 20 Week 8: Win (6-2) Rams @ Miami Dolphins - FOX 10am PST We continue this offensive success against a team that will probably be pretty good defensively. HC Tom Flores is a Bill Belichek disciple who learned something important from his former mentor; acquire as many great DBs as you can. The improved secondary will make things tough for Goff and gang, but ultimately working with a rookie QB is going to be hard against a defense with all pros scattered around it. Rams 17 Dolphins 0 ' Week 9: BYE Week 10: Win (7-2) Seattle Seahawks @ Rams - FOX 1:25PST And entering the second half of the season we have our first three game winning streak. Coming off a bye week will give McBae ample time to prepare for a Seahawks team thay frankly will have a struggling offensive line and holes on its defense. Even with Jamal Adams, I expect this team to take a step back in 2020. Rams 31 Seahawks 17 Week 11: Loss (7-3) Rams @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers - ESPN Monday Night Football Facing the best offensive weapons in the league is going to be a tough order for any team this season. Now that they have a QB that will make effective, eccifient decisions this Bucs team should take off. I dont think its particularly close, this is a complete team on both sides of the ball. Bucs 28 Rams 10 Week 12: Win (8-3) San Fransisco 49ers @ Rams - FOX 1:05PST The winning continues as the team really clicks into high gear. A brutal NFC West game will likely be a repeat of Week 6, but with a few more bounces going our way. Being at home will be a helpful factor. Rams 26 49ers 24 Week 13: Win (9-3) Rams @ Arizona Cardinals - FOX 1:05PST If there is any team in the league that McVay can be relied on to spank, its the Cardinals. McVay has yet to be beat by the team in his tenure with the Rams and I expect that to continue at least through this week. Despite a huge game from future MVP Kyler Murray, the Rams prevail, improving to 9-3 Week 14: Loss (9-4) New England Patriots @ Rams - FOX/NFLN/Amazon Thursday Night Football A short week against Belichek spells doom for almost every team, and McVay will continue his struggles against the GOAT. The Pats defense was able to throw Goff off his game on the Super Bowl a few years ago, I expect we see more of this on Thursday. Week 15: Loss (9-5) New York Jets @ Rams - TBD Every team had one puzzling loss, and this matchup with the Jets is ours for the year. I dont expect the Jets to have a grest year but I do think Sam Darnold is universally underappreciated and will have a great game against us. Week 16: Loss (9-6) Rams @ Seattle Seahawks - CBS 1:05PST And we are really ending the year on a slump. Losing to the Seahawks this late in the year isn't great for our playoff hopes, but its always a tall order to go into Seattle and leave with a W. This game may he one of the most important games going into the playoffs and I wont be surprised to see it get flexed. Week 17: Win (10-6) Arizona Cardinals @ Rams - FOX 1:25PST Luckily for us we end the season against our little cousins, and use this opportunity to get our chakras realigned. This game will move us into the 6th seed and bounce Arizona into the 7th seed, becoming the first division in history to have every team make the playoffs.
Conclusion
I think people have forgotten that the Rams were a mkssed field goal away from making the playoffs last year, and thats with playing very sloppy through most games. The only thing holding this team back is the fact that they play in the toughest division in football. I think that Goff has a bounce back year and ends up a top 10 QB for the season. This season will be critical for McVay to really show the new coaches and players that he's capable of not only calling proficient offense but leading an entire team of players. It will be an interesting season, so make sure to wear your damn mask so it actually happens. Thank you for reading, and bless all the knees and keep them healthy!! Thanks for reading!! Bless all the knees and keep them healthy. Link to hub
Thank you for making this the longest Mailbag we’ve posted. Most of you wanted to vent, so I ran your comments first and the ones that required answers come afterward. Most of you have given up on the season after the 0-2 start that should be 0-3. I’m guessing you gave up on them after the 0-3 start in 2018. Titans fans gave up last season when they started 2-4. Ravens fans wanted John Harbaugh fired with a 4-5 record in 2018. And don’t forget the Colts’ 1-5 start in 2018 and 10-6 finish, including a victory over the Texans at NRG Stadium? I predicted in August the Texans would start 0-3, so I’m not surprised. Now, if they start 0-4, it’s time to hit the panic button. Oh, I almost forgot, stunningly, a few of you want Bill O’Brien fired. Imagine that. Please check out the Chronicle’s two television shows this season: “Texas Sports Nation” airs at around 11:30 p.m. Sundays on KPRC (Channel 2) after NBC's football game. “Texas Sports Nation: In Depth” runs twice a month on AT&T SportsNet Southwest, which also reruns it at different times. The staff is putting a lot of time and effort into the shows, and we hope you like the content. As always, thank you for contributing to the Mailbag, reading our stories in the Chronicle's print editions and online at Texas Sports Nation, where we also have multiple weekly podcasts. As you do every week, please send your comments and questions to [email protected]. Note: questions have been edited for clarity and/or brevity. Q: Same BS again this year. There have been many changes, millions of dollars spent, lots of new coaches and plenty more excuses to come. Bill O’Brien is the one constant. He is not a great coach, not even a good coach and still a worse GM. By the time McNair realizes we will be auditioning the next quarterback to lead them nowhere. The excuses are so old. — David P. Q: Your grade of the HC/GM should be an F. It’s hard to write this during the fourth quarter of this game where I knew, as well as you, the Texans wouldn’t win. But going for it on 4th down in the first half again on our side of the field is flat out stupid. I would have been OK with it in the 4th quarter on Baltimore’s side of the field because we were down by two scores and a field goal wasn’t going to help. If the guards can’t run block or pass block any better than this then I have to call out the GM. Does Bill understand that the rest of the NFL coaches know the offensive line cannot block long enough for a deep route to hurt them. It appears he has built a quick-strike offense fantasy built around deep pass routes that does not reflect the offensive line’s ability to block. Use Cobb and the TEs more and run the clock because our defense is not built to be on the field for long stretches and we surely haven’t scared the opponent defensively. Please do not say we played Baltimore better this time then last time. We lost and until the coaching/drafting/trading gets better, the Texans will always be full of noise and nothing else. — Glenn P. Q: It's amazing that the Texans still keep getting national television slots. And every time they do Bill O'Brien uses it to showcase really stupid coaching decisions. That David Johnson trade looks bad now, with no one to block for him, and no one to pass protect for Deshaun. And Hopkins is enjoying great success with a dynamic QB and 2-0 record. The more things change, the more things stay the same. The Texans are again proving to not be ready for the start of the season. Those poor guys are bad at everything, poor offensive line play, no pass rush, poor tackling, and boy do they get outcoached. Teams take on the personality of their coach. And OB is never prepared and extremely unpredictable. That offense looks the same to me and so does the sad sack defense. Poor Deshaun deserves better than running for his life game after game. — Ronald J. Q: I just want to say that I'm sorry you had to sit through the entire Ravens-Texans game. At least I could switch to the U.S. Open golf tournament. I'm not going to rag on anybody this morning. Just some thoughts that seem to me to be reasonable concerning Deshaun Watson. I was prompted on this subject by Brian Smith's first paragraph of his column. To paraphrase, one of these days he is going to shout, “REALLY?” when another questionable 4th down call comes in. There are just a few gifted QBs that have an innate gunslinger quality about them. Watson, Jackson, Mahomes, Favre, and Russell Wilson, to name a few. I think Watson is being mismanaged. The GM/HC is trying to make a square peg fit in a round hole. He is by nature a gunslinger. He is unconventional and they are trying to make him conventional. Turn him loose! Let him use the play called as a suggestion. See what happens when he is allowed to be who he is. My observation is he’s not a pocket QB. I see nothing in Kelly's play-calling that differs from O'Brien. Tim Kelly is an O'Brien clone. He studied and was groomed by O'Brien. What did we expect? I know, it's early. They were expected to lose this game. I just wish they would have gone out on their shields and not pouting on the bench. I know eventually O'Brien will be let go. My recommendation for replacement is Ravens DC Wink Martindale. Have you ever seen a more ravenous defense! You just wonder why we can’t be like that. They do trade film don't they? Weaver should study them until his eyes bleed. — Joe K. Q: Hopkins is making Kyler Murray an MVP candidate. All Texans fans wish OB would go away. I worry about your sanity if you can't get over the Hopkins trade. Normally when you have fourth-and-1 at your 34, you punt. Why wouldn't you punt? Because your defense is arguably the worst in the NFL. Odds are they’ll be even worse if they are tired. It's one thing to know it another to announce it to the Ravens. Perhaps OB forgot, it's an emotional game. How do you think the Ravens felt then? OB’s got one of the most gifted QBs the NFL has ever seen at eluding a pass rush. What does a pump fake do? It gets DL to raise their hands and DBs to make a move. This is why the Texans are so damn frustrating. Yes, they stink on defense, and yes, they can barely block on most plays, but they still have the magician, DW4. What makes him so elusive? Body movements — subtle and not so subtle just like Air Jordan. It happens so quickly for these phenomenal athletes. It’s more instinct than thought. If you know anyone who has any influence with OB, pay them to whisper the words "pump fake." I bet you DW4 can sell a pump fake better than most. — Juan B. Q: I was hoping the Texans would not start the season 0-2. The Ravens again beat the Texans. The Texans were outcoached and outplayed. The Ravens organization is clearly at a higher level than the Texans. The Texans' defense again was not effective against the run. The offensive line was not consistent with pass blocking or picking up the blitz. Then there was the fourth-and-1 at their 34. The coaching staff is hired to give you the best chance to win. This was not the best call, ever, on your side of the field against the Ravens defense. The play that was called had no chance of succeeding. This has become an alarming pattern for this team every year. Can we win in Pittsburgh? Not with this play-calling, poor defense and sporadic offense. I’m hopeful for a Texans win, but I see this year being very long and disappointing. — Darryl K. More Texans Coverage JOHN MCCLAIN BY JOHN MCCLAIN, STAFF WRITER McClain: Big Ben has thwarted Texans like clockwork JOHN MCCLAIN JOHN MCCLAIN McClain: Texans' Watson, new receivers still adjusting to each... JOHN MCCLAIN JOHN MCCLAIN John McClain's takeaways: Less is more for J.J. Watt TEXAS SPORTS NATION AARON WILSON Texans, Reliant, Touchdown Club give $25,000 to HS football... TEXAS SPORTS NATION: TV & PODCASTS JOHN MCCLAIN, AARON WILSON Podcast: How can Texans win in Pittsburgh? JOHN MCCLAIN BY JOHN MCCLAIN, STAFF WRITER McClain: Texans lacking that opening drive JEROME SOLOMON BY JEROME SOLOMON, STAFF WRITER Solomon: Bill O'Brien lucky to have the only supporter he needs TEXAS SPORTS NATION: TV & PODCASTS JOHN MCCLAIN, AARON WILSON Podcast: Why the Texans sit at 0-2 Q: The Texans looked a little more competitive but did not show anything to convince me they can beat the Steelers so I'm seeing an 0-3 hole. Hope springs eternal which is essential for Texans fans. This looks like my year to adopt the Cardinals as my team. I lived in Phoenix for 50 years so it's not a random choice. With DeAndre Hopkins playing like he's a Cardinals veteran alongside the ever-reliable Larry Fitzgerald, I'm sure they're a fun team to watch and a nightmare to defend against. I'd like to become convinced that Bill O'Brien knows what he's doing, but the mountain of evidence to the contrary just keeps growing. — Greg G. Q: If Houston played KC and Baltimore nine more times each, they would lose all nine to both teams. They're probably not in the top five in the AFC! These are the teams they must compete with just to reach a Super Bowl. Houston is not even in the conversation to win it all. This sucks again for loyal Houston fans begging for a winner. O'Brien is the problem, not the solution. I fear we have many years before being able to make and succeed in the playoffs. I see easily an 8-8 team this year. — Rhett D. Q: I listen to Sports Radio 610 and read the comments from everyone and its all the same old thing — it’s O’Brien’s fault. When do all these high-priced prima donnas start hearing the comments about them? O’Brien got rid of Clowney because he wanted too much money, the same reason that he’s with his third team in three years. He got rid of Hopkins because he had three years left on the contract he signed. When is enough enough? These guys talk about helping people, then buy more cars or more jewelry or go to the strip clubs and make it rain. When do the owners that took the chance and spent their money to buy these teams say enough is enough and lock the doors and say no more, let’s get real on all these demands and I own the team and it’s my way or the highway? They don’t need the players — the players need them. — Tommy P. Q: Football 101: You can't expect to win by trading away your best players. — Tim H. Q: Bring DeAndre Hopkins back home. Please get rid of BOB, he's ruining the teams. Get rid of everyone in organization staff and the medical staff as well. — Billy W. Q: I have lived in Houston and followed sports and Houston is just not a winning town. Look at the poor play in this year’s first two games. You gave them an F. I give them a big F-minus. Okay, you don't win every game, but you should be at the top. We had a few times where we did get to the top but not near enough. Now the best was the Luv Ya Blue days with Bum Phillips. The owner did not like Bum getting all the credit so off went Bum, down went the Oilers. Sports is just way out of control. Look at the pay they get, the best heart surgeon does not come anywhere near. Now the real problem is kneeling when our beautiful flag is presented and the national anthem is played. Protest is no problem as when done in a positive and proper manner. These kneelers have a nationwide audience. What a disgrace for this great country. Remember, these guys are able to kneel because of the veterans. Just find another place and method to protest. I look at the headstones of our military with KIA (Killed in Action) and look what they gave for little pay. This protesting by kneeling has to stop. I and many others no longer watch or purchase commodities from the advertisers. This virus will also hurt. . I stand for the veterans. — James M. The Houston Chronicle’s Brian T. Smith discusses Texans coach Bill O’Brien’s curious decisions In their loss to the Ravens and whether anything has changed with the franchise. Video: Houston Chronicle Q: It all goes back to coaching and a head coach is only as good as the personnel around him. Frank Broyles passed that on to me a long time ago. And looks like he might have known what he was talking about. — Jim D. Q: I couldn’t agree more with you on the grade you gave the Texans against the Ravens. It’s probably not too late or too early to get rid of O’Brien as we all figured they would start out slow. That being said even if they go 10-6, they’re nowhere near the quality of the Ravens or the Chiefs. They have way too many holes on defense and even though they’ve got some big-name wide receivers, they are not on the same page. And the defense is absolutely horrible. Why have Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins been able to get on the same page so quickly while the Texans are struggling? I looked at their schedule and based on how they’ve played even though it’s been only two weeks I figure them to be no better than 8-8. That being said, I think O’Brien should be fired. I don’t know who should replace him. It looks like trading Hopkins is a catastrophic mistake and trading Clowney he has also been a catastrophic mistake. Not resigning Reader is a catastrophic mistake. — Glen K. A: Glen, why was trading Clowney a catastrophic mistake? He didn’t do much in his one season with Seattle and had fewer sacks than Jacob Martin. He’s still getting in shape with the Titans. Would you have given him a $100 million contract? Nobody else has. As for D.J. Reader, good against the run, but over the last nine games last season, including the playoffs, they allowed like 166 yards a game rushing. And they still can’t stop the run. Q: Any idea why the Texans elected not to have crowd noise pumped into the stadium? Also, what the hell was Bill O’Brien thinking going forward on fourth and 1 on his own side of the field? — Jimmy B. A: They had crowd noise, Jimmy, but they didn’t have the volume turned up. As for the fourth and 1, the Ravens blitzed and nobody picked it up and the pass was incomplete. Sometimes you’re the bug. Sometimes you’re the windshield. OB was the bug. Q: I am a Texans fan and will watch and try to be positive, but nothing helps. Why doesn't offensive line push these teams back? Why is our QB constantly trying to throw 30 yards? Why is our center always standing after a play, typically backward and not forward? — Stephen G. A: The offensive line is off to a bad start against damn good defenses, Stephen. Watson is running for his life and trying to find receivers down the field, and he’s still thrown a lot of short passes. Q: Your article said Bill O'Brien called the fourth-down tragedy. Later in the article it said Tim Kelly is calling the plays. It looks like an OB call to me. Is O'Brien still calling the plays and Kelly is just a puppet or what? I was ready to turn the game off right after that call. I knew how the rest of the game would go. More of the same with stupid offensive calls. Both KC and Baltimore have active, varied offenses. Coach puts Watson in a position where the offense can't even operate. He continues to try to jam up the middle with his running plays. Isn't there some creativity somewhere? — Chuck W. A: Chuck, O’Brien made the decision to go for it, and Kelly called the play. Q: No takeaways about the coaching? I know you graded them F in your report card. Just curious if you had a more profound opinion? Remember OB’s the GM as well. No opinion on any of his trades so far? I know it’s early but I don’t see progress but then again that’s why as fans we look to you for insight. — Francisco M. A: Francisco, I wrote a column that included OB. I try not to duplicate things in my On the Texans column with my takeaways. Plus, I have to pay attention to what our columnists, Brian T. Smith and Jerome Solomon, are writing. Brian wrote about the fourth-and-1 call and quoted O’Brien. I wrote about it but didn’t quote Bill because we’re not supposed to duplicate quotes if we can avoid it. After a game, we try to cover every single angle in the Chronicle's print editions and on our sports website, Texas Sports Nation. As for OB’s trades, I’ve written about them often. Q: Now that we are two games in, who is the best quarterback in the AFC South? I know I have heard a lot of hype suggesting Deshaun Watson is the best, but if you go with wins, he is not the best. If you prefer using stats, he is buried behind such stellar talents as Gardner Minshew, Baker Mayfield and Justin Herbert. He is so far below Ryan Tannehill, Deshaun would need a telescope to see up that far. So is it the QB, the O-line coach or the BOB that is the problem with Deshaun? What irked me the most about the coverage of the team is trying to blame the defense. The defense was not good against KC but they held the Ravens to 16 points through three quarters. The lone touchdown was set up by the first of three turnovers by the offense in the first quarter. When you go for fourth and 1 in your territory, you need to make it. Three offensive turnovers in the first half is awful. The defense did let down in the fourth quarter but you could see it coming with their body language. You could tell they knew what we all knew. This offense is awful and they were never coming back. It is going to be a long year. I hope Deshaun survives it. — Tim M. A: Tim, they didn’t commit three turnovers in the first quarter. As for who’s the best QB in the AFC South, if you ask GMs and coaches around the NFL, I imagine everyone will tell you it’s Watson. You’re already written him off after two games against the best teams in the NFL. Q: I had a chance to hear your national radio interview on the Sirius NFL station Sunday morning. I thought you were really informative and brutally objective and really gave the rest of the country a sense of how many of us feel here locally. My questions are: How do you prepare for these things? My sense is that you stay immersed in your subject matter and then almost speak a verbal article in the Chronicle. And when did you start feeling comfortable doing these things. Finally, thank you so much for speaking in complete sentences. — Ray M. A: Thank you for listening, Ray, and taking the time to write. I do so many talk shows, podcasts, Zooms and a weekly television show and write six days a week for the Chronicle — every day but Saturday — and it just comes out when I open my big mouth. I love what I do, and I’m blessed to be doing it for a 45th year at the Chronicle. I try not to turn down anyone who calls me for a radio appearance, Zoom, podcast, etc. if I can work them in. I try to accommodate everyone on a weekly basis. Q: I'm curious as to why Bill O'Brien never provides specific details on what the team needs to work on after a bad game. It's always, “We need to do better" types of comments. I don't know why he will not provide specific details to the media and fans. Why is he always so vague? — Dan W. A: Dan, he addressed the bad run defense, Keke Coutee’s fumble, lack of consistency, etc., after the Baltimore loss. He does say they need to play and coach better. He’ll never single out players for criticism, and they appreciate it even if the fans don’t. Q: I know it’s a long season, but how much longer are the McNairs going to tolerate Billy O’s slow starts and faith-based personnel decisions. For the better part of seven years we have been hearing Billy say, “We have to start faster.” And the last few years, Billy has let go of or traded the best players on the team — Duane Brown, Brandon Brooks, Ben Jones, Glover Quin, JD Clowney, D-Hopkins, D.J. Reader. How do other teams figure out how to pay all these guys but Billy can’t? I know it’s not all Billy’s fault, but after the past few years, shouldn’t the McNairs realize Billy’s a below-average coach, at best? — Louis L. A: Geez, Louis, you’re so off base on some of your comments. Rick Smith traded Brown and let Quin go in free agency to sign Ed Reed. Brooks, Jones and Reader left in free agency. Would you have paid all of them what they wanted? Would you have paid Clowney $100 million? Teams have to make financial decisions on the salary cap. They can’t pay every player what he asks for. Nobody does. Q: I am amazed what Jacksonville has done the first two games. Jay Gruden has Minshew playing rather well and his offense looks to be pretty good. Is it possible that Cal's football team is imploding and the brain trust he has in place doesn't know that it is happening? I kind of got excited when the KILT 610 talking heads were saying things about all the speed at WR, and having two RBs who can catch the ball as well as run. And the fact that there were three new coordinators, bringing in new ideas and things should be different and much better. Looks like the OC is simply a clone of the previous one. Not sure about the DC. I still see opposing WRs and TEs running free like last year, and as you have pointed out many times, the run defense has disappeared. But Anthony Weaver is not missing gap assignments and trying to arm tackle ball carriers. Several of the players have gotten paid, but Cal is not getting his money's worth so far. When you predicted an 0-3 start, I figured you probably were correct and I thought those losses would be 2- or 3-point affairs, much like 2018. What I am seeing this season reminds a whole lot of 2005. Seemingly good players and coaches, but terrible execution and suspect game plans. From what you have said and written, Cal will not be making any changes unless the wheels completely fall off. Right now, I think his organization might be riding on the rims, but the wheels are still turning. Albeit slowly. Before the Baltimore game started, I watched the last 20 minutes of Arlington and Atlanta. Can you imagine Cal's team ever doing what Jerry's team did in that game? I feel bad that you have to endure another season covering Cal's team. I would truly love to see you cover a championship team before you retire. — Dennis W. A: Dennis, if they finish 2-14 like they did in 2005, I expect OB will be fired as Dom Capers was. But I don’t see them finishing 2-14. Q: I'm holding off any opinion on Kahale Warring at this point thanks to Bennie Joppru, a second-round pick in 2003 who never played a game after going on IR three years in a row. He seems to have played in one game in his fourth year and wound up in Seattle getting into five games and was never heard of again. Saved on laundry bill never having to wash his uniform. It's so easy and fun to be mean when you are a fan. — Larry V. A: Larry, unfortunately, when I see Warring going on IR for a second consecutive season, I think of Joppru, too. Unfortunately. Maybe he’ll figure it out and make something out of himself because he’s got talent but hasn’t learned how to use it. Sign up for the Daily Playbook newsletter Texas sports are back! Get the latest scores, news and analysis. Enter your email By subscribing, you agree to our Terms of use and acknowledge that your information will be used as described in our Privacy Policy. Photo of John McClain John McClain Follow John on: mcclain_on_nfl John McClain, a Waco native who graduated from Baylor in 1975, is in his 45th year at the Houston Chronicle and his 44th covering the National Football League, including the Oilers and Texans. He worked for the Waco Tribune Herald from 1973-76, when he accepted a job with the Chronicle. to cover the original Houston Aeros of the World Hockey Association. McClain has a plaque in the Pro Football Hall of Fame in Canton, Ohio as the 2006 winner of the Dick McCann Memorial Award presented annually by the Pro Football Writers of America to a writer for his long and distinguished coverage of the NFL. He is past president of the Pro Football Writers of America. In 2019, he was voted into the Texas Sports Hall of Fame’s second class of media inductees. He's a member of the Pro Football Hall of Fame Selection Committee, the Pro Football Hall of Fame Seniors Committee and the Texas Sports Hall of Fame Selection Committee. In 2015, he was named as a Gridiron Legend in Texas, becoming the third member of the media behind Dave Campbell and Mickey Herskowitz. In 2019, he was voted into the Texas Sports Hall of Fame's second class of media honorees. McClain can be heard six times a week on the Texans' flagship station Sports Radio 610 in Houston. He also does weekly sports talk shows in Nashville, Knoxville, Waco, Austin and San Antonio. McClain also has appeared in eight movies: The Rookie, The Longest Yard, Spring Breakers, Secretariat, Invincible, Cook County, The Game Plan and Make It Rain.
New to DFS looking for some questions answered by some more experienced players
hey guys I'm looking to get into DFS for this NFL season. I just have never been to sure what the proper way to go about it is. -Which contests are the best to participate in? Obviously I want to enter the big tournaments to bet a little and win a lot but that is clearly not the way to win money. Which contests offer the best odds with the least influence by running into too many sharks. -Roster Tips? The few times I've played i run into people picking multiple kickers. I figured the best way to go was to throw a QB into your MVP and then work from there being that QBs score the most points. Then I saw a lot of kickers being used. Feel like theres a strategy to what positions to be choosing from. Anything else you can offer me is greatly appreciated. THANKS!
Week 2 Recap: Week 2 felt great! The Rams/Eagles went as predicted. And we were the Lions covering their spread from a huuuuge day. One of the BBDLS missed by just them, 150-1ODDS! https://ibb.co/mcGjnLg So did our second teaser! Luckily this one was a free bet :D https://ibb.co/YhgFWBR Here is our record for everything from week 2. Still a little slow going in the singles, but as the season develops and I get more data on line play and defense, just as in years past, the prop game will really open up. We were fortunate to pull through on the KC game to win our biggest play so far (11u) and hit the first teaser to end the day +28.97u. Singles (6-8, -6.38u) Parlays (0-1, -1.5u) Teasers (1-1, +38.85u) BBDLS (0-3, -2u) Week 3 is here, lets see what the Thursday game has for us ! :D https://preview.redd.it/i17ut9z306p51.jpg?width=1000&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=6502446485939424cc7abf3e215ba1fe525fb002 THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL Mia at Jax: This is going to be a wonderful game. Two teams who live and die with the energy of the QB on any given Sunday. Personally my metrics are saying Jax is way the better team. MIA defense is just missing too many easy tackles. They do have Fitzmagic who can at any point give them an opportunity to win against mediocre teams, but the energy around the Stache right now is real. When this game first came out, it felt like there was heavy value on Jax and a shoot out, but apparently the sharps thought that too and instantly bet the line up from Jax -1.5 to Jax -3. The total also shot up 2-3 points in most books. So, the value on both is probably lost. Now contrarians can find value on MIA +3 since Fitz can usually keep them within a chance. Personally my algo and my gut are going with the Stache on this one. Might also look into JAX props for this one. As we said last week, I think this is going to be a great year for the rookie running back. Singles (8-9, -5.15u)
Jax ml (4u to win 2.5u)
Each Team to Score a TD in Each Half (3u to win 6u)
Parlays (0-2, -5.5u)
SGP -- Gesicki Over 55.5Rec,Minshew Over 17.5Rush,Cole Over 55.5Rec,Robinson Over 15.5Rec,O'Shaughnessyanytime TD (1u to win 205.51u)\SGP- same game parlay on FanDuel. This is actually for 2u but they have a promo where they give you 1u back win or lose* BTW this is a huge gamble. A safer SGP that would still qualify for the bonus would be without* O'Shaughnessy .
Teasers (1-1, +38.85u)
None
BBDLS (0-3, -2u)
Mia/Jax: Each Team to Score a TD in Each Half, Paulo Costa ml, Cin +6, Ne ml, Ten ml, Ind ml, Cle ml, TB ml, GB ml, Bal ml, Dal +5.5 (1.4u to win 691.79u)Total gamble here with a mix of thursday nfl, sat ufc and sunday nfl.
Futures: Whelp, I feel like I missed the value on Russ. He is now the MVP favorite and the Seahawks have gone from +2200 pre week 1, to +1600 post week 1 to +1200 post week 2 for Superbowl champ odds. Id say the best value now if you still believe in Russ like I do would be to parlay SEA and whomever you think will win the AFC. For me its Chiefs, and Ravens...but seeing how well Bellicheck is doing with Cam, I think there's always a chance he sneaks in. Especially if the ravens and chiefs face each other in the post season and eliminate one of them for the Pats. Thanks for reading and good luck to all!
I have some ideas for parlaying season-long bets. Are there any good books where I could request something specific, like NFL MVP and the Superbowl winner to the same ticket? Or for NBA. Anyone done these before? I've heard Vegas got some places that will give you odds for some specific request, but are there reliable books online for this? Mainly looking in Europe, but all help is welcome.
Will the Chicago Bears win OVER/UNDER 8.5 games? By University Stats Prof!
1. Introduction
It was a roller-coaster ride for the Bears last year. They started with a 3-1 record before losing five of their next six meetings. They concluded the season by winning four of the last six games, but it wasn’t enough to qualify for the playoffs. After a NFC North title in 2018, Da Bears ended with a disappointing 8-8 record last season. The offense was often criticized (deservedly so), and changes needed to be made.
2. Offensive Position-by-Position Breakdown
2.1 Quarterbacks (QBs) Mitchell Trubisky has had an uncharacteristic journey in the NFL thus far. After being selected as the number two overall pick, he had a rookie season where he threw 7 TD passes versus 7 picks. He took a nice leap in his sophomore year with 24 TDs and 12 interceptions, while leading the team to its first division title since 2010. QBs showing such a nice growth from year 1 to year 2 rarely crash down the following season, but that pretty much describes Trubisky’s third year in the league. He graded as the 30th-best QB in the NFL out of 37 qualifiers based on PFF rankings. This situation was inexplicable. It’s not like the team had lost many key pieces on offense. What happened to Trubisky? GM Ryan Pace has set up nicely a good QB battle in camp between Trubisky and newly acquired Nick Foles. What’s interesting is Foles himself has had ups-and-downs in his career. He was outstanding in 2013 by throwing 27 TDs versus just 2 interceptions! He also led the Eagles to a Super Bowl in the 2017 season, after Carson Wentz went down to an injury. Foles also performed well in 2018. However, he wasn’t so good in 2014, 2015 and more recently 2019. What type of quarterback will he be in the windy city? Who’s going to get the starting nod? My own guess is Foles win the job early on. He is already familiar with the head coach, the QB coach and the offensive coordinator. Learning the playbook won’t be as difficult as if these guys had never worked together in the past. Backup QB Chase Daniel left for a division rival: the Detroit Lions. Overall, adding Foles over Daniel is clearly an upgrade over 2019, while also keeping in mind the fact that Trubisky may return to his previous form (which is not impossible for a young guy like him). 2.2 Running Backs (RBs) What the heck happened to Tarik Cohen? I have always liked small and fast guys. For this reason, he had become one of my favorite guys to watch. Watching him last year (and the entire offense) was sad. His yards per rush average went from 4.5 to 3.3. His yards per catch average went from 10.2 to 5.8. He couldn’t get going all season long. In 2017 and 2018, Jordan Howard and Tarik Cohen were a great version of the thunder-and-lightning combo. Despite losing Howard, the production wasn’t supposed to drop significantly because of the acquisition of David Montgomery through the draft. That’s not how things played out. The team went from 11th to 27th place in terms of rushing yards per game (from 2018 to 2019). Montgomery finished the year with a disappointing 3.7 yards per carry average. Both Montgomery and Cohen will be back in 2020. Perhaps they’ll do better this year, but I don’t expect a huge upgrade either. 2.3 Wide Receivers (WRs) Finally a guy that has produced consistent results in this offense: Allen Robinson! Catching 98 balls for 1,147 yards and 7 TDs despite such bad QB play was phenomenal! You can count on him to generate good numbers again, especially in a contract year. A former second-round pick, Anthony Miller caught 52 passes last season after catching 33 the year before. The only blemish was the number of TD receptions, which went from 7 to 2. Miller started the year slowly following an offseason injury that made him miss some time in camp. His role could be increased after the departure of Taylor Gabriel. The Bears pulled the plug on the Taylor Gabriel experiment. After showing some flashes with the Falcons, he never lived up to expectations in Chicago. Again, the production from this group may be steady in 2020. 2.4 Tight Ends (TEs) I’m sorry Bears fans, but one of the worst free agent acquisitions, in my humble opinion, was Jimmy Graham for two years and $16 million. The price paid versus the production doesn’t make sense at all. If you look at his numbers, you can see a clear decline. His first seven seasons were a success; his lowest mark according to PFF during that time span was 74.7. Then, he received a 66.0 grade in 2017. And then 59.6 in 2018, followed by 58.0 last year. To make matters worse, remember that the last two years were with the Packers, who happen to have a quarterback named Aaron Rodgers (have you heard of him?). Trey Burton was another huge disappointment last year. After catching 54 passes a couple of years ago, he only caught 14 in eight games. He was released and picked up by the Colts. The team drafted Cole Kmet in the second round in this year’s draft. He’s a classic tight end who can do a little bit of everything. He provides good run blocking, albeit sometimes a bit inconsistent. He doesn’t have that much experience as a pass catcher since he only started racking up decent stats last year, but he has a big catch radius. He will likely need time to develop into a solid starter. The Bears also have Adam Shaheen in their roster, a 2nd round pick from the 2017 draft. He has bust written all over him. As if they didn’t have enough tight ends, Chicago went on to sign Demetrius Harris, formerly of the Browns. He graded as the 66th-best tight end out of 66 qualifiers. Enough said. This group did very little last year. A bunch of six guys combined for 46 catches. Despite the questionable moves, I expect a small upgrade. Perhaps Graham can magically rejuvenate his career? 2.5 Offensive Line (OL) Four out of five starters are returning: Cody Whitehair, James Daniels, Charles Leno and Bobby Massie. Only Daniels graded as above-average; the others finished in the middle of the pack (or even lower). Kyle Long announced his retirement, while semi-starter Cornelius Lucas left for Washington. The new starter on the OL will be Germain Ifedi, who made at least 13 starts in each of his first four seasons in the league (all with the Seahawks). In summary, we have a not-so great starter being replace by a not-so great player. Therefore, we can expect similar results to 2019, which was average play. 2020 VS 2019 OFFENSE Inconsistency is a recurring theme for many players from this unit: Trubisky, Foles and Cohen. My final conclusion is a small upgrade over 2019, mainly because of the QB position. The chances are fairly good that either Foles provides a spark, or Trubisky regains his 2018 form. However, don’t expect a MVP-type of season for any one of them. The rest of the offense should expect similar output. Acquiring Jimmy Graham and Germain Ifedi is nothing to write home about, just as losing Taylor Gabriel isn’t a big loss either. Final call (2020 vs 2019): Small upgrade
3. Defensive Position-by-Position Breakdown
3.1 Defensive Linemen (DLs) The interior defenders did a fairly good job. Roy Robertson-Harris, Nick Williams and Eddie Goldman all graded as above-average DLs in 2019. Only Bilal Nichols received poor grades, but he played less often. Nick Williams left for Detroit, but the Bears expect to get Akiem Hicks in 2020. He suited up for just five games last year. He’s been a dominating force for them the previous three years. His return on the field will make a big difference. So, despite Williams’ departure, this group should do better in 2020 than the year before, mainly because of Hicks’ return. 3.2 Defensive Ends (DEs) / Edge Rushers (ED) Khalil Mack’s sack production went down in 2019 with “only” 8.5. He had recorded 12.5, 10.5, 11 and 15 in its previous four campaigns. Still, Mack finished as the #14 edge defender out of 107 guys. He is constantly disrupting plays from opposing offenses. The Bears lost Leonard Floyd who went to the Rams, but they quick found a replacement with Robert Quinn, coming over from Dallas. Floyd is two years younger and averaged 4.6 sacks per season, while Quinn has gotten 8.9 sacks per year over his nine-year career. Quinn is a better pass rusher, while Floyd plays the run better. All in all, I expect similar results as 2019 from this unit. 3.3 Linebackers (LBs) One more guy who saw a dip in productivity was Roquan Smith. After receiving a 67.0 grade in his rookie season, he only got 52.4 last year. He played the run well, but his coverage and pass rushing weren’t nearly as good in 2019. I do believe the former #8 pick overall can come back very strong in 2020. Danny Trevathan missed six games because of an injury, but he played pretty well when he was on the field. I am not worried about him. Backups Nick Kwiatkoski and Kevin Pierre-Louis both left in free agency. Both played very well while filling in for injured starters. Their losses take a blow to Chicago’s linebacker depth. 3.4 Cornerbacks (CBs) Kyle Fuller and Prince Amukamara were the clear starters in 2019. Despite finishing as PFF’s number 41 CB out of 112 qualifiers, Amukamara was released by the Bears for cap reasons. Still, the team needs to replace him. Can Buster Skrine or Kevin Toliver assume that #2 role? I’m not so sure about that… Chicago hopes to fill the void via the selection of Jaylon Johnson in the 2nd round last April. The number one concern about him is health; he has undergone through three shoulder surgeries over the years. Johnson’s speed and explosiveness are below average, but he makes up for it with great competitiveness and smart-play. 3.5 Safeties (S) We are rounding the defensive side of the ball with the safeties. Things were pretty simple in 2019, as both Ha Ha Clinton-Dix and Eddie Jackson played 99% of the defensive snaps. They ranked 19th and 46th out of 87 safeties, respectively, according to PFF. The problem is Clinton-Dix is gone to Dallas. Last year the Bears vacated the vacancy created at the safety position when Adrian Amos left for Green Bay by acquiring Clinton-Dix, but now that he’s also gone they have a glaring hole at the position. 2020 VS 2019 DEFENSE The Bears allowed the fourth-fewest points in the league last season. Can we expect a similary good 2020 season? I doubt it. First, the good news. Akiem Hicks is back from an injury that made him miss 11 games and the team acquired steady sack producer Robert Quinn from Dallas. The bad news? Losing DL Nick Williams, DE Leonard Floyd, LBs Nick Kwiatkoski and Kevin Pierre-Louis, CB Prince Amukamara and S Ha-Ha Clinton-Dix. That’s a lot of bodies that need to be replaced. We’re talking about at least 4 new starters and some key depth. Overall, my guess is it takes a moderate blow to the Bears’ defense. Their front seven is likely to remain very good, but the secondaries worry me. I wouldn’t fall off my chair if the team went from 4th-best in points allowed to the 10th-12th range. Final call (2020 vs 2019): Moderate downgrade
4. Regular Season Wins
According to sportsbooks, the Chicago Bears are expected to win 8.5 games this season. Should we bet the “over” or the “under”? Here is the methodology I used in order to answer this vital question:
Use BetOnline.ag’s point spreads on all 256 regular season games.
Convert those point spreads into win probabilities.
Simulate each of the 256 games, according to those win probabilities, via the R statistical software.
Repeat the previous step one million times (you get 1M simulated seasons).
Count the proportion of seasons where the Bears won more or less than 8.5 games.
Here are the results:
Estimated Probability
Sportsbook
Odds
ROI
OVER 8.5 WINS
38%
Pinnacle
+148
-5.8%
UNDER 8.5 WINS
62%
MyBookie.ag
-130
+9.7%
Tip: Bet UNDER 8.5 wins
Return On Investment (ROI): +9.7%
Rank: 26th-highest ROI out of 32 teams
Minimum odds required to bet (i.e. ROI = 0%): -163
Here are BetOnline’s point spreads for the Bears’ 16 regular season games:
HOME: -5 vs DET, 0 vs GB, -3.5 vs HOU, -1.5 vs IND, 0 vs MIN, +2.5 vs NO, -5 vs NYG, -1 vs TB.
Note: The “Best odds” from the table above were obtained after looking at 13 well-known online sportsbooks on May 18th, 2020. TOMORROW: I'll talk about the team whose ROI is the 25th-highest in the league, the Green Bay Packers! I hope you found this article insightful, thanks for reading! Professor MJ
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