Whether you’re one year into the game or over a decade in, what are some of the tips and tricks you’ve picked up along the way that have helped you become a more profitable bettor?
Seen a couple posts on here lately from people looking for tips on gambling, bank roll management, etc. Figured I’d add in some things I’ve learned that have helped me this season.
1). Figure out your unit size and stick to it religiously, win or lose.
I would say this is the first and most important step you should take before placing a bet. A good rule of thumb is to make your unit size around 5% of your bankroll. So if your bankroll is $1,000, then your one unit should be $50.
And when making bets, try to be consistent with the unit size you’re betting. Personally, I never go over 2U on one single bet. Far too often I’ve seen someone bet $100/bet and go on a four-bet win streak, then on that fifth bet they decide to risk it all and lose. Now, instead of being 4-1 (+$300ish), you’re now 4-1 (-$100).
2). Start tracking your bets.
We’ve all had that moment trying to navigate to the “graded bets” section of our Sportsbook to look back at past bets, only to find an unorganized rambling of words.
Instead, try keeping track of your bets in an organized manner. There are several apps out there that help with tracking bets (i.e. Action Network, BetQL, etc.) but an Excel spreadsheet works just as good. This is how I set up mine.
This helps for several reasons. For one, it helps me ensure I’m keeping my units bet consistent. But it also helps me keep track of how much I’ve won (or lost). For instance, when I first started out, seeing that I was minus-$1000 helped bring me to the moment where I had to tell myself that either I need to stop gambling or I need to seriously reconsider my approach.
3). Don’t be a full-on parlay whore or a teaser slut.
It’s easy to get sucked into the lure of the parlays and teasers. As a former whore/slut to these sucker bets, I know.
Sure, winning $2,000 off of a $100 parlay sounds a lot better than winning $90 off a $100 straight bet. However, the probability of hitting one compared to the other is a heck of lot lower as well.
But if playing parlays and teasers is an itch you just need to scratch, consider playing them in smaller units. I personally play one parlay a week, but I keep it at 0.25u and I limit it to three teams max and when I play teasers, I only do two-teamers (-110 or -120 depending on your book).
4). Never make emotional or angry bets. Ever.
In simpler terms: Don’t chase losses.
In betting, you’ll have winning nights and you’ll have losing nights. But the main difference between profitable bettors and losing bettors? One knows how to take a losing night on the chin and live to fight another day while the other foolishly adds on to the losses.
Sure, you might get lucky and hit a desperation bet to recoup some of the losses. But at that point, you’re making bets purely off of emotion—or under the influence of alcohol—instead of off research. More often than not, you’re not going to like the result that comes with that style of betting.
5). Don’t pay for picks.
You’re already giving the house juice, why add more by paying someone else daily or monthly for their picks?
Instead, look into purchasing resources that are not only far more cheaper but also can help you make better-informed picks (i.e. Pro Football Focus, Action Network, Sportsline, etc.) Once you start to educate yourself on line movements, knowing which side the smart money is coming in and which sides are getting steamed, you’ll start to make educated bets on your own.
6). Learn from your mistakes and successes.
At the end of the week, I always like to take a look back at what worked and what didn’t.
If a bet lost, I try and look back and see what I read wrong. For instance, I was on the Saints spread in their MNF game against the Raiders. All the experts, all the smart money was on the Raiders. Even the line movement on the day of was going the Raiders way (from -5.5 down to -4). In hindsight, with the smart money and my gut being on opposite sides, this should have been a “no play” for me. As a result, moving forward I usually highlight 3 or 4 games I like around Tuesday and keep track of the lines posted on my books, the bet% and money% and anything else. Then when game day approaches, if everything aligns, I place the bet. If not, I hold.
As they say, sometimes the best bet you make is the one you don’t place.

That’s really all that jumps out to me. Anyone else have other things they’ve learned along the way?

7 Notre Dame (2-0) vs Wake Forest (0-2) – 12pm – ABC
Last Week: Notre Dame watched a clip from A Bronx Tale where they beat the ever-loving hell out of the bikers in a Mafia-run bar, they proceeded to act it out on the field. Somewhere deep in a bunker Lou Holtz cackled as the Irish racked up 281 yds on the ground and 6 TDs (he then proceeded to call Kelly a purple faced bad catholic). Wake Forest also racked up big offensive numbers, but that only matters so much when you give up 45 to a Dave Doeren team. Wake gave up essentially two 100-yd rushing efforts, which is like, not good or something.
This Week: Whew Wake has a rough schedule. Notre Dame does not need to pass well to beat them handily, so it’s highly likely this will be a paddlin’. Book will get yet another chance to demonstrate that he is a capable passer. Carlos Basham will lead Wake’s DL in attempting to slow down the big Irish ground attack. But if they allowed a lot on the ground to a Tim Beck offense…
Prediction: 49 – 17 Notre Dame
Edit: Covid wins again, booooo
Georgia Tech (1-1) at Syracuse (0-2) – 12pm – RSN (?)
Last Week: Georgia Tech came back to earth a bit as the Citronauts managed to pull away late. It’s hard not to like what Collins has done to the Bees though, as GT managed to drag UCFs powerful offense down to their level and make it a street fight for most of the game. Speaking of which, Dino has to be happy that the Orange (shouldn’t THEY be the ones playing the Citronauts?) managed to make a game of it with Pitt. This looks like a team that tries hard on defense but has absolutely nothing working on offense. Devito has been sacked more brutally than Rome by the Visigoths.
This Week: If this was still the Coastal then somehow Syracuse would win. Georgia Tech has played much better in both a win and a loss, and has more to play for. Syracuse meanwhile looks like they will vie for the coveted Bottom-Of-The-Barrel trophy with Duke. I see Sims having an up and down day with a few turnovers, but Georgia Tech is both more talented and a more balanced team.
Prediction: 28-6 Georgia Tech
24 Louisville (1-1) at 21 Pitt (2-0) – 12 pm – ACC Network
Last Week: Picket called the Panther’s offensive effort against Syracuse sloppy, and he is correct. But at this point it’s like wondering if a teenager’s room is sloppy, or if that’s just kind of who they are going to be as a human. Pitt racked up defensive stats, but only managed 21 points against perhaps the weakest ACC foe, which wasn’t helped by Bama’esque kicking. Louisville was haunted by the ghost of a ghost rider Bobby, whose defensive recruiting dragged them down to hell. Turns out if you can’t stop Miami from running you over repeatedly, they won’t stop doing it.
This Week: This may be the marquee matchup, and at the very least it’s a good bellwether game. Louisville defense vs Pitt Offense may be the stoppable force vs the moveable object. Which team can show reasonable improvement towards being a balanced team? I’m favoring the Cards, as I think Satterfield will mask their defensive issues better than Pitt can overcome their offensive issues.
Prediction: 28-26 Louisville
Duke (0-2) at UVA (0-0) – 4 pm – ACC Network
Last Week: Just call UVA an honorary member of the SEC, because they are just now starting football. Call Duke an honorary member of the Big12, because yeesh. Duke looks like they need everything to go right to win a single game, and having Chase Brice isn’t enough for that to happen right now.
This Week: UVA is a total unknown without Brice Perkins behind the wheel. I’m going to trust that Mendenhall has a strong defense, and that their offense will only work in fits and starts. Meanwhile, I have zero faith in Duke to show signs of life. They turned the ball over 5(!) times with 4(!) of those being in the red zone last week. That’s not a performance you can have against the Hoos and even compete.
Prediction: 24-9 UVA
Texas State (1-2) at Boston College (1-0) – 6 pm – RSN
Last Week: Starting your coaching career with a win has got to be fun. BC took advantage of a lot of Duke mistakes and turned what might have been a scrappy game into a blowout. BC has some Jurk from ND as their QB, and of course has a great connection to their TE.
This Week: Texas State has a potent enough offense to stick around with SMU and beat UTSA in double overtime. That’s not really anything to write home about, but it does mean they aren’t so bad that they might lose to say, Kansas. BC meanwhile looks like they have a more multiple offense, while also still packing a 245 lb running back. I think they bulldoze the Bobcats, and all the Bostonians start flooding this place talking about how wicked smaht Hafley is.
Prediction: 45-17 BC
Florida State (0-1) at 12 Miami (2-0) – 7:30 pm – ABC
Last Week: FSU lost to Covid. Seriously. Norvell will be watching remotely for this week’s matchup. Miami meanwhile turned into a Category 5 rushing attack, making Louisville look silly on defense. They also did decently on defense, but perhaps a level below what fan expectations were for the season.
This Week: Yikes. Seriously if James Blackman doesn’t have some sort of great insurance plan, he should look into one. FSU possessed an anemic offense against Georgia Tech, and they are unlikely to look better against the Canes. Much more interesting will be seeing a still talented FSU DL against Miami running backs. This could be a game where King needs to do something with his arm to propel the offense. I’m betting things get testy as Miami will want to run up the score.
Prediction: 42-6 Miami
NC State (1-0) at 20 Virginia Tech (0-0) – 8 pm – ACC Network
Last Week: Just as we all predicted, the championship of North Carolina runs through the Wolfpack (ignore my actual prediction, please). Ricky Person looked sharp and Hockman managed to pass efficiently, as the Pack finally got over the hump against the Deacons. Virginia Tech was busy plotting in the Hokie Stone mines.
This Week: I think this could be a fun matchup. Virginia Tech under Fuente has been all over the map, but they are a balanced team with a very good QB in Hooker. NC State is probably better on defense than the 42 they gave up to Wake, but they are clearly a team that can withstand a basketball on grass kind of game. I think VT let’s out some pent-up energy and carries the game late.
Prediction: 31-24 VT
Not Playing:
1 Clemson (2-0) – Well they did exactly what a Tiger is inclined to do to a bulldog – gut it entirely then take a nap. Trevor Lawrence’s sole incompletion was a drop on the first drive, and he continued to rack up absurd numbers while stealing rushing TDs from Etienne. Not much to note here other than minor concerns with the 2nd-5th string offense performing as well as Alabama did against the Citadel, and those guys clearly stink.
11 UNC (1-0) – UNC had it’s game with Charlotte cancelled due to Covid, and was unable to find a replacement on the fly. We will probably see a number of these throughout the ACC slate. Sam Howell will spend the week making sure every beard hair is perfectly groomed (there is a lot of pressure as an ACC QB to have perfect hair)

Hello friends!
Firstly, I hope you're all doing well, I hope you're all happy, healthy and ready to watch a monumental event.
This has been a very fun card to talk about. It may not be as star stacked as the last card was, but it's stacked in terms of raw talent alone. But... I will state this now because it's pretty important. There are very controversial decisions in this prediction post, I'm sure you'll spot it. and with that warning said, please bet at your own discretion, it's a very hard card to predict.
With all the formalities said and done, lets get dirty.
(c) - Champ
(D) - Debut
FLS - Fight Lose Streak
FWS - Fight Win Streak
NS - No Streak
(#x) - Rank in Division
Lets go!
Prelims
Light Heavyweight
Khadis Ibragimov (8-3-0, 3 FLS) v Danilo Marquez (D) (9-2-0, 2 FWS) - I’m not sure if i’m keen on this, but I suppose any Light Heavyweight bout could be explosive. Ibragimov is on a pretty severe losing streak so far, and considering he hasn’t won any fight in the UFC in his 3 fights, he seems to be on the brink of being kicked off the roster, which is a shame really because he kinda just started. Ibragimov seems somewhat well rounded, he is an adequate grappler and has serious power behind his punches, but at the end of the fight he just seems to be outdone, so i’m a little skeptic about his future performances. Marquez is coming off the regional circuit as a fairly strong finisher who only has one decision win in his professional career. One relatively large issue that I see straight off the bat is his inactiveness, he hasn’t had a fight in over two and a half years, so I feel like there might be some ring rust, and well, it’s hard to tell what he’s gonna bring to the fight. I’m not sure who is gonna win this one, but judging from how active versus how inactive each fighter has been, I feel like Ibragimov has this one.
Ibragimov via KO R2
Heavyweight
Jeff Hughes (10-3-0, 2 FLS) v Juan “Cejudo but bigger” Espino (9-1-0, 7 FWS) - Well, that’s a name I did not expect to see. Hughes seems to be one of those heavyweights that made it through to the UFC on power alone. He’s a big dude that swings and if this was the early 2000’s that would be fine, but considering he lost to two much more well rounded fighters, I strongly hope that he finds a quick turn around because he’s still young and no doubt hungry for victory. In his last fight against Pessoa, Hughes was incredibly patient and didn’t take any unnecessary risks because Pessoa is fairly explosive, he was methodical with his approach and even though he lost the fight, we saw that he didn’t always have a one dimensional approach to fighting. Now, the interesting fighter in this bout is Espino. Now, you might be wondering where you heard that name from, well, he’s the winner of TUF 26 (Heavy Hitters), and at the ripe old age of 37 he won in quite dominant fashion against fellow contestant Justin Frazier. For two years now, I have always asked, where the hell is he? Here he is, his announcement must have completely flew under my radar because I had to blink twice to see if I was dreaming. Espino is an excellent submission artist who has a relatively large background in grappling and submission competition and he has absolutely dominated the scene. Expect the fight to go to the ground early, because that is where Hughes doesn’t want to be, and where Espino needs to be. The tricky part about Espino is how will he look after a 22 month layoff? I’m not sure but i’m pretty excited to see him come back. I got Espino on this one.
Espino via Sub R2
Light Heavyweight
William Knight (#1 US Northeast) (D) (8-1-0, 2 FWS) v Aleksa Camur (6-0-0, 6 FWS) - Knight has been at the forefront of hype during this season of DWCS, he is built like an absolute Abrams and he has insane punching power. Now, whether or not he’s a clean fighter with just insane Usman-esque genes or if he’s best friends with Jon Jones, but either way, he’s a dangerous opponent. We have only seen almost 3 minutes of him beating up his opponent so there’s not too much analysis, but just know that when he lands, he lands extremely hard. The best way for Camur to deal with him, is to avoid him for the first round, gauge the explosiveness, read his setups and then counter. Camur is the longer fighter in terms of range, he can counter jab any aggressive movement that Knight makes. Now, this at the moment is all pure speculation because we’ve only seen a little bit of Knight and Camur, but judging from each fighter's style, if Camur can survive the onslaught from Knight then he’s got it. It’s a tough one to call though, but I might go with the hype train for now, I could be wrong so please don’t bet based on this prediction.
Knight via KO R1
Featherweight
Shane Young (13-4-0, 2 FWS) v L’udovit Klein (D) (#2 Europe Eastern) (16-2-0, 7 FWS) - That’s one hell of a debutant right there and in my opinion an underrated matchup. Young is an excellent kickboxer who throws excellent and slick combo’s efficiently and with such speed. He has often outstruck his opponents and he’s always throwing and always in his opponents face, the pressure is insane and if Klein can’t handle that then he’s in trouble. Klein has an extensive knockout record and at a young age of 25, the fact that he’s knocked out veterans of the sport with relative ease, shows how dangerous he really is. These european guys don’t mess around and we’re seeing more and more talent from that part of the world dominate the scene, and this man is no exception. 7 knockouts, 8 submissions, all action. I don’t like betting against my fellow Aussie/NZ fighters but all of my eyes (I only have two) are on Klein on this one. Such an insanely fun matchup.
Klein via KO R2
Welterweight
Diego Sanchez (30-12-0, NS) v Jake Matthews (16-4-0, 2 FWS) - I love how much of a big favourite Matthews is even though he’s facing a legend in Diego Sanchez, someones probably going to make a whole lot of money. Sanchez might be the strangest fighter both personality wise and his antics in the octagon, but he is no doubt one of the most experienced fighters on the roster. He’s exceptionally well rounded and he gets the job done in many cases. The big question here is whether or not Sanchez will be all there, he’s been knocked out and to many people out there he seems to be a shell of his former self. Now, my man Matthews has one hell of a mountain to climb this coming Sunday, it’s a large step up in competition considering his last fight was against Meek (who at the time of the fight, was 1-2 in the UFC). So to say that Matthews has an opportunity of a lifetime to pull a significant win and get his name in the spotlight is to put it pretty lightly. Matthews is very well rounded with a heavy focus on ground control to major tom. His grappling is excellent, and his relatively large frame allows him to smother his opponents and control everything that his opponent does. Now, will Sanchez be able to avoid the ground? Sure, he’s done it before, but each fight is different. This is a very interesting fight and I wonder how the stress/anxiety of Matthews will be handled, he’s been known to shrug off pressure and get to work without any forethought, but I feel like Sanchez has this one, very controversial I know, you can yell at me in the comments below, so feel free to bet against this, the reasoning why I think Sanchez wins this one is simply experience and knowledge. I just hope that Sanchez doesn’t somehow trip on DMT as he enters the Octagon.
Sanchez via Sub R2
Lightweight
Brad Riddell (8-1-0, 5 FWS) v Alex Da Silva (21-2-0, NS) - The more I watch RiddellThe more that I realize his style is very similar to Volkanovski, with a wide variety of feints which gives his opponent a false sense of varied attacks incoming, when in reality, it's just setting up a strong right hand. It’s exactly how he managed to knock down Mustafaev earlier this year, he started off with many different looks, then amongst the confusion, and the anticipation of something, Mustafaev got hit with the right hand. Riddell is a very good kickboxer, he’s extremely loose on the feet and has great defensive movements. The only thing he really needs to work on is his ground game, in both of his fights in the UFC, his opponents have taken him down numerous times, and whilst Riddell did manage to stand back up and power through, it wasn’t a very technical stand up. That’s pretty dangerous territory if you’re coming up against a submission specialist in Da Silva. Now, Da Silva isn’t only just a submission specialist, he has 13 knockouts as well so its clear that he’s got phenomenal power in his hands. He’s a high level finisher and I’m so glad the UFC picked him up at such a young age. He only has two losses, that’s pretty nuts. This is a very good fight, and I feel like if Riddell has an advantage here, it’s in the striking, it’s very advanced and the fact that he has a heavy focus on feints and different looks he gives off to his opponents, he’s going to be trouble for Da Silva whilst the fight stays on the feet, although i’m quite curious to see if he has upped his ground game and grappling defence a bit. Very interesting match up.
Riddell via UD
Main Card
Featherweight
Hakeem Dawodu (11-1-1, 4 FWS) v Zubaira Tukhugov (19-4-1, NS) - This is lowkey a banger. Dawodu is a solid kickboxer who has a solid background in Muay Thai (42-5-0), a prodigy in combat sports is what I feel Dawodu is. Dawodu has such great consistency with his accuracy and variety of techniques, his kicks are fast, his punches and combos are fast, he’s powerful and he’s always moving. If you watch him closely, no matter what he throws, he has his defence up ready for a counter from his opponent. Do not sleep on Dawodu. I don’t care if your house is on fire, shit it’s probably on fire coz it senses Dawodu on the screen. Tukhugov is well known for his escapades after the Khabib v Conor fight, and he probably boasts about his ability to punch an already defeated McGregor, but all that stuff aside, Tukhugov has very fast and powerful hands, but his most advantageous style over Dawodu is the grappling and Sando style that typically comes from being a cousin of a Nurmagomedov. I highly doubt Tukhugov will exchange with Dawodu. I clearly have Dawodu on this one, very confident with this pick, I just hope Dawodu can avoid the takedowns of Tukhugov.
Dawodu via KO R2
Women’s Bantamweight
Ketlen Vieira (#5) (10-1-0, NS) v Sijara Eubanks (#14) (6-4-0, 2 FWS) - This is a pretty interesting fight because Eubanks was in a fight fairly recently and whilst her being active is great and the opportunity to stack up wins is certainly there, I personally don’t think it’s safe nor smart to get back to back fights considering her history with rough weight cuts and weight misses. All that aside… Vieira is a dominant grappler and BJJ based fighter who drives for a takedown or a trip, she’s very much a ground based fighter and she’s going to be looking to get close and personal, get into a clinch situation and then take Eubanks down because Eubanks has strong striking, and not necessarily clean striking at that. Her only loss was against Aldana who is now headlining the next card after this one, so really that’s a pretty rough loss but it was against a dangerous opponent. Expect the fight to go to the ground during this fight, because Vieira will be looking for it consistently. Eubanks is, as I said before, coming off a decision win over Avila, and what that tells me is that she is going to be cutting weight twice within a month so that’s no doubt going to be detrimental to her health in the long run, but i’m not sure how much it will affect her performance, but i guess we’ll see how she looks at the weigh ins. Safe bet? Vieira, she’s got a great set of techniques that can take Eubanks to the ground and has the experience to keep her there.
Vieira via UD
Co-Main Event
Kai Kara-France (#8) (21-8-0, NS) v Brandon Royval (#12) (11-4-0, 3 FWS) - Now, before you scratch your head and say “Slayer, this isn’t the co-main”. Hear me out, I always do this with multi-championship bouts, and I firmly believe that Reyes v Blachowicz deserves more praise than “Co-Main”. Back to this fight. Kara-France is a very well rounded kickboxer coming out of City Kickboxing (which, I mean, doesn’t surprise me, it seems whenever Izzy is fighting, his whole team is, it’s one hell of a thing to see). Kara-France is a majestic fighter to watch, the way he moves and gets in and out of range, the way he switches stance to launch an attack then switches back almost instantaneously, his footwork is truly something to marvel at, and it’s the main reason why it’s been so successful. It’s just so hard for his opponents to keep track of. It seems to be the core technique of City Kickboxing to have excellent feints and well timed strikes from those feints, because every fighter coming from that camp does it exceptionally well. Kara-France is no different, he doesn’t rush for a finish, he sets a plan and executes it. Royval is still very new to the UFC and has one very good submission win over Tim Elliott, he’s clearly comfortable on the ground and with his relatively dominant time in LFA, it’s clear that the UFC is his next stage of evolution as a fighter. He’s got a very tough challenge ahead of him in Kara-France, but if he can take the fight to the ground I'm fairly confident he can make Kara-France struggle because he’s so fast on the ground. Not only is he fast, he’s significantly taller than Kara-France and longer, so it could be easier to maintain position or to slip in a choke. Either way, This feels like your typical striker v grappler fight and I have a feeling Kara-France has this one.
Kara-France via UD
Light Heavyweight Championship bout
Dominick Reyes (#1) (12-1-0, NS) v Jan Blachowicz (#2) (26-8-0, 3 FWS) - This is a fucking phenomenal fight. You have no idea how loudly I said “holy fucking shit” when I saw that these two were fighting. Reyes went 5 rounds and arguably won his fight against Jon Jones, we haven’t seen Jones in trouble like that in a long time and that’s why I firmly believe that Reyes has the toolset and athleticism to become the champion. Reyes’s background in American Football is pretty beneficial when it comes to MMA if you think about it, explosiveness and cardio are two of the main things for that particular sport and when transferred to MMA you get Reyes. Reyes has what seems like the perfect amount of power and speed, and we saw how much he can adjust in a championship fight against Jones and he exceeded everyone's expectations. The variety of strikes and targets he attacks is incredible and just shows how much he has implemented into his style so early on in his career. Blachowicz has some serious Fuck You power. The way he shut down Corey Anderson in the very first round with a powerful right hook just shows how dangerous he is. Blachowicz has an extensive record and with that record comes devastating knockouts and slick submissions. We have seen him dominate opponents on the ground, in that Jared Cannonier fight he managed to just smash and smother him the whole fight. I do honestly feel that Reyes in this case, having experienced Jones and his ability to survive and thrive, has no doubt added a substantial amount of experience to his fight game. I have Reyes on this, I’m very confident that Reyes has this, it doesn’t need to be a flashy fight, he can avoid the power of Blachowicz and just put on a striking clinic from a distance. This is an insane fight.
Reyes via KO R4
Main Event
Middleweight Championship Bout
Israel Adesanya (c) (19-0-0, 19 FWS) v Paulo Costa (#3) (13-0-0, 13 FWS) - Now, this is the fight I feel like all of us have been waiting for. This is going to be long. Adesanya is one of the biggest names in combat sports at the moment, his extensive kickboxing record has left a mark on that sport, and his introduction to the UFC has shaken the world of MMA. Adesanya has consistently proven to us that he can get it done, it doesn’t have to be a fancy or explosive finish, because at the end of the day, he still wins, and he’s going to win this time… or is he? Adesanya has every technique in the books covered, he has mastered the sport of striking, he has been capable of setting up submissions (See Gastelum fight), he is evasive, but he does have one glaring issue, and that’s the fact that Costa is fighting him. See, Adesanya has fought some big motherfuckers in his time, he has knocked out some huge fighters, and he has survived an onslaught. But everyone slips up, and as the promos about this fight say, someone's 0 has got to go, and we saw some openings in his fight against Gastelum where he suffers, and that’s his inside defence, he’s exceptional at evading and dodging attacks from a distance, but with Gastelums ability to hop into range and land a clean strike, we saw where Adesanya's defences lack, and that’s the movement. Now, before you scratch your head, look at where Adesanya has always been in trouble, against the cage. Costa has this remarkable ability to just constantly be in the face of his opponent and throw hooks, and hooks are dangerous for fighters who evade using lateral movement, it cuts off routes of escape, and I can see Costa cutting off the Octagon and landing solid strikes on Adesanya. Now, what Adesanya does best is counter, if he can counter the oncoming attack from Costa, and change angle to get out of the way, he’s got a very solid chance, and well, his range advantage (8 inches) will play an important role in this bout. Costa on the other hand is all offense. His fight against Romero? Evident that he has the power and weaponry to knock out Adesanya, but he needs to cover that distance first, and by the time Costa goes from his position in the Octagon, to where Izzy is, Izzy is to Costa's left, or right, way out of danger. Costa needs to find an opening, catch a body kick, do something to get into that range where he can land some solid hooks, but this fight is that hard to predict, that anything can happen. Costa is the definition of power. Whether it's Costa winning by KO R1 through 5, or Izzy winning via KO or UD in any round, this is one of those fights that is near impossible to predict. In my honest opinion, I feel like Izzy will simply outstrike Costa, and perhaps knock him out in the championship rounds, so here’s the official prediction.
Adesanya via KO R4
There we go!
See, a few controversial picks, so please implement your own bets into this, i doubt i'll get all of these correct, some ballsy picks haha.
If you would like to follow me on twitter, you can find me @Slayer_Tip or if you want, add me on discord and we can have a super friendly chat about all things MMA: Slayertip#7013
With all of that said and done, I hope to see you guys in the comments down below, it's an amazing event, and I wouldn't pick a better community to share my thoughts and have a discussion with than you fine people.
Much love and happiness to all.
o/

What are the best teasers to play? We're looking at a strategy introduced by Blackjack expert Stanford Wong. He noticed that many pro football games end with a 3 or 7 point margin, so we want to play teasers that go through these numbers to give us the best chance.
Specifically, our methodology is:

• For 6-point teasers, take the underdog when the line is +1½, +2, +2½, or +3;
• For 6-point teasers, take the favorite when the line is -7½, -8, -8½, or -9;
• For 10-point teasers, take the underdog when the line is +1½, +2, or +2½ (but not +3);
• Don't take 10-point teasers on favorites.

There's been some debate over whether teasing the underdog at exactly +3 is a good play. Some people also offer the advice to pay attention to home/road splits or the total of the game. But after looking at the results over the last three years, my opinions are to include +3 and not fret about home/total.
How much does a teaser bet pay? Each book is allowed to select their own payout odds. Once upon a time, -110 used to be the standard payout but nowadays about -120 or -130 appear to be at or near the norm.

Teams	Points	Payout
2	6	-120
3	10	-130

According to the listed payouts in the chart above, we would need to hit 73.9% of the 6-point legs individually to break even. That threshold is 82.7% for 10-point legs. Your mileage will vary depending on what your book says.
Will following this strategy definitely mean I make money? No! Right now, I don't have enough conclusive evidence to say that Wong teasers are indeed a winning strategy in 2020. Besides, all of this seems very data-miney and that makes me uncomfortable.
I'll be using this year to track, in real-time, how these Wong bets are doing. For my tracking this year, I'll be counting underdogs and favorites separately. I won't be paying attention to totals or home/road splits.
What were the results in Week 1 this year? I'm using the closing line at Bovada to determine which games qualify as Wong bets. (You can use sbrodds.com to verify I'm being honest about what the closing numbers were.) These were the games and results in Week 1 this year:

Off-the-board	6 pt	10 pt
Carolina +3	Win
Chicago +2	Win	Win
Cincinnati +3	Win
Denver +3	Win
Green Bay +1½	Win	Win
Baltimore -7½	Win
Indianapolis -7½	Loss
Kansas City -9	Win
New England -7½	Win

What percentage of teaser legs have hit in the past? Remember that we're looking for 73.9% hit probability on 6-point teasers and 82.7% hit probability on 10-point teasers just to break even. If we are looking for a truly plus-EV strategy, our hit probabilities will have to exceed these numbers.

Teaser	Year	Team	Record	Actual	Target
6 pt	2017	+1½ thru +3	61-23	72.6%	73.9%
6 pt	2018	+1½ thru +3	63-19	76.8%	73.9%
6 pt	2019	+1½ thru +3	52-16	76.4%	73.9%
6 pt	2020	+1½ thru +3	5-0	100.0%	73.9%
6 pt	2017	-7½ thru -9	27-10	73.0%	73.9%
6 pt	2018	-7½ thru -9	16-9	64.0%	73.9%
6 pt	2019	-7½ thru -9	17-7	70.8%	73.9%
6 pt	2020	-7½ thru -9	3-1	75.0%	73.9%
10 pt	2017	+1½ thru +2½	22-1	95.7%	82.7%
10 pt	2018	+1½ thru +2½	24-5	82.8%	82.7%
10 pt	2019	+1½ thru +2½	23-4	85.2%	82.7%
10 pt	2020	+1½ thru +2½	2-0	100.0%	82.7%

What's a Round Robin bet? A teaser bet requires you to put 2 (or more) teams onto a single ticket. But how do you know which team to group with which team?
One way to do this is to make a "Round Robin" bet. A Round Robin bet is when you tell your book that you like these 9 teams and that you wish to bet every combination possible. There's 36 different ways to choose 2 teams out of 9, so that's 36 different bets. If you had bet 1.2 units (to win 1.0) for each of the 36 different bets last week, you would've had 28 winning bets and 8 losing bets. Week 1 this year would have returned a profit of +18.4 units.
If your book doesn't have an option to construct this Round Robin bet with one easy click, you could manually try to construct a similar situation. Individually punching in 36 different tickets manually might be obnoxious but you should still try to play every team at least a couple of times, paired with a different team each time.
For example, group Chicago with Indy on one ticket and then group Chicago with Carolina on a separate ticket. This way, you still reap partial rewards for Chicago's win even though Indy didn't do their part.
What are the Week 2 plays being tracked? As of the time of this post, these would be the Wong plays for this week.

• Minnesota +3
• Baltimore -7½
• Kansas City -9
• Tampa Bay -8
• Tennessee -7½

⚠️ Proceed with caution on Wong favorites. Since 2017, underdogs have been more reliable.
I emphasize that the list above is unofficial because the determining factor is closing line at Bovada. (You can check them at sbrodds.com.) If the line moves between the time of this post and kickoff of the game, you might see some games fall off of this list or some games be added to this list.

I did a very degen thing some months back. I ran up $100 to $26,000 in a span of 40 or so hours at a popular Philly casino. I didn’t bink some crazy long shot bet or anything, I just decided to not be scared of going busto once I ran up the $100. Due to the stims I was on to stay sharp through those 2 days, I became pretty disoriented. While I wasn’t fully out of it, I was exhausted and only remember what followed in bits and piece. It was around 5:00am and I couldn’t stay up any longer for more games. I proceeded to use the sports kiosks (the book is of course closed) and put all $26,000 on Leister to beat Aston Villa in the Carabao Cup. The kiosks would not allow any wager over $1,000. The actual sportsbook would also limit bets. At times during this 2 day heater, the book would not allowed to bet even 2,000 or 3,000 on certain small market ncaa teams. Anyways, it’s pushing day 3 of no sleep and practically living in a casino alone with just my brain and what became a very very large wad of cash. Also, I’m only 22 if that matters. Obviously I know how to gamble and am actually sharp, but as most of you guys probably know, being sharp doesn’t mean shit without proper BR management. Ya ya, I’m preaching to the choir. Anyways, I continue to print out $1,000 bets on Leister, sometimes switching to Draw No Bet, but basically pounding the ML like nobody’s business. I even throw large bets on an exact score of 2-1 Leister. Had Leister won the first half and the game, I was looking at around $77,000. If they had won the first half, the game, AND by a score of 2-1, I would have walked with around $93,000.
Aston Villa scored in the 90th minute to win 2-1. But I didn’t watch. In fact, I missed the game by 10 hours. I woke up in the hotel across the street. At first, I was confused. Then it hit me. I had action. A lot of it. I couldn’t quite figure out what that action was while waking up (I eventually found all $26,000 of kiosk tickets in my pants), but it was the ESPN score banner flashing across the bottom of the hotel tv that made my heart skip a beat. It was the middle of the night and the game had ended many hours before, but I was on the edge of the bed. I see Carabao Cup run across the screen, followed by Aston Villa-2 Leister-1 FT.
I recognize this as my action. I think how much I may have wagered on the game. Being soccer, a sport I consider myself only slightly +EV betting on, I figured it wouldn’t be the end of the world. $5,000? Maybe even $10,000? It starts to come back to me even harder. I find the tickets and look in horror as I had wagered the entirety of the $26,000, barring the cost for the hotel and an $100 bill. I start praying out loud to whatever god that may listen on the off chance that he or she has the desire to influence English Cup Football. I pray that Leister had found the net in the first half and kept Aston Villa scoreless. A 1st half Leister ML was pretty juicy. I would’ve not lost very much at all had that happened. But it didn’t. I grabbed my things and left. As I walk out of the lobby, the front desk receptionist offers me a kind smile. I recognize it. She thanks me again for my generosity. She explained that I wandered into the lobby the morning before asking to buy a phone charger. She reminds me they don’t sell chargers, but that she offered to lend me hers, and that I tipped her $40 because of it. I smile and say you’re welcome, trying my best to hide clear distraught. To my fellow gamblers—old or young, man or woman, wise or dumb, it doesn’t matter—you must keep in mind that any bet is risky. A bet is a gamble. When those bets become larger and larger, so does the gamble. Did I gamble more than I could afford to lose? No, I only gambled my $100. I didn’t even lose any of my own money, I broke even! But...do you think I felt good about “breaking even” on that somber, hour long drive home? No. The only thing I felt was a hatred for english cup football, shitty philly traffic, and the stupidity to risk $26,000 because I wasn’t satisfied with walking away as a broke college kid. The other kicker is that I’m not sure the bets would have been accepted as good standing action had Leister won, because clearly the sportsbook’s limit on that game would be way less than $26,000. Live and learn. It was a hell of a ride, but it’s not about the entertainment, it’s about the money. I let myself get so sleep deprived and bet hungry that I bet without even knowing I was doing so. Let’s hear your worst moments.

Hi CMV,
This is a view I've been developing for a while as both a man and a lover of sports. Over the last few years, I've seen several of my close friends get sucked into this extremely addictive cycle of sports gambling. Some have gone as far as to open illegal books, participate in illicit gambling, owe people significant money, and wasting money they should have used for other purposes to gamble on games that, quite honestly, nobody who isn't a fan of specific teams would ever give a shit about. If they weren't betting $5-15 on sports a few times a week and instead going to the casino and playing blackjack weekly, it would obviously be seen as a real addiction.
Personally, I do like betting on the occasional game. It's now legal where I live and I have the disposable income to do it every once in a while. I generally tend to bet on big games, like the NBA finals happening over the next few weeks. I also play fantasy football and basketball which I don't really think apply here because that's much more interactive and is a good way to stay in touch with friends.
More to the point; I think toxic masculinity applies here for a number of specific reasons which I'll list below. As a general principle, I have a pretty lenient view on toxic masculinity in the sense that I think the term is widely overused, but I do strongly believe it's a real thing and have little interest debating that unless it's necessary for your arguments.

1. Historically, gambling has always caused problematic relationships between men and women, particularly those in relationships. There is a long, well documented history of gambling addictions that tear apart families and couples. Now, I'm no Quaker, but the degree to which sports betting is being promoted as a cool guy thing is very toxic and against solid morals.
   
2. Many sports gamblers are absolutely addicted and refuse to acknowledge it. Failing to accept flaws in personality and mental health are core tenets of toxic masculinity. The refusal to ask for and receive help also fits into this definition of toxic masculinity.
   
3. By definition, toxic masculinity pushes men to take risks that they should not take. Not much else to say on this.
   
4. Sports should be enjoyed for the sake of enjoying them. I find it toxic to feel the need to insert yourself into a game that has nothing to do with you. If you otherwise wouldn't be interested in a game, betting on it should not be how you gain interest. Again, it's one thing to think you'll make it big by betting on the Super Bowl or something, but if, for example, you're not normally a fan and betting weekly on parlays involving bad, unwatchable teams like the NY Jets, the Detroit Tigers, and Wolverhampton, that's toxic. You're just trying to force interest in boring games by putting your own money on the line in some toxic desire to win when you otherwise have nothing riding on these games.
   
5. The internal need to earn fast cash through frequent gambling applies the tenet of toxic masculinity involving the search for social status and money. Men commonly feel unfulfilled and inadequate if they're unable to earn "enough" money through normal means, and they will thus seek other, much riskier avenues for financial and social status.
   

I could go on and on but I feel like I'd get repetitive as the list got too long. What I'm arguing here in short is that there's suddenly this huge market for sports betting and it relies on and exacerbates toxic masculinity. Now that it's becoming legal in more places than just Vegas or other common gambling places, too many men have become borderline addicted to it. And it doesn't help that iconic cultural influences like Barstool and even fucking ESPN are glorifying and advertising it.
I'm not here to call for regulations or new laws or anything like that. I just think sports betting exemplifies many of the core tenets of toxic masculinity and men need to be more careful and aware of how chronic gambling can affect their behavior, even when it seems as harmless as throwing $5 on a few basketball games.
CMV

What is a teaser? For those unaware, teasers are a special type of bet that most books will allow on basketball and football games. There's multiple games on your teaser ticket sort of like a parlay, but the key difference is that you're moving the line several points in your favor. For example, the Chiefs are favored by 9½ tonight but you might be able to get them at -3½ on your teaser ticket.
How much does a teaser bet pay? It varies by book. There used to be a time when 2-team, 6-point teasers on pro football paid at -110 odds. Unfortunately, it seems like -120 is more common to see these days. (Payouts will also differ based on the number of teams and points, but my focus is on 6-points.)
Are all teasers equal? Certainly not. Notice that many football games end with a final score margin of between 3 and 7 points. For example in the NFL last year, 101 games out of 267 (37.8%) ended with a margin of 3, 4, 5, 6, or 7 points.

Margin	Frequency
0 points	1 game
1	11
2	12
3	27
4	12
5	10
6	20
7	32
8	12
9	1
10	15
11	6
12	2
13	6
14	13
15	4
16	9
17	12
18	11
19	1
20	7
21	8

Teasers that go through these frequent final margins are a better bet.
Blackjack expert Stanford Wong suggested a strategy for playing teasers that said to only play underdogs of +1½, +2, or +2½ points (teased up to +7½, +8, or +8½) and favorites of -7½, -8, or -8½ (teased down to -1½, -2, or -2½). These so-called Wong teasers have had a 100-37 record in the last three years in the NFL.
In comparison, teasers that go through zero (e.g., teasing -3 down to +3) have had a 76-64 record.
Is that good? A 100-37 record is a 73.0% win percentage. If the teasers paid -110, then the threshold required to break even would be 72.4%. At -120, the threshold required to break even is 73.9%. In either case, the percentages are too close to say we've found a definitive pattern.
Can we get better? A hot topic among Wong bettors is whether or not to bet underdogs of +3 points (up to +9). Let's break down the data even further and look at how the bets performed at each spread.

Bet	Record
+1½ → +7½	30-7	81.1%
+2 → +8	19-10	65.5%
+2½ → +8½	10-3	76.9%
+3 → +9	117-38	75.5%
-7½ → -1½	30-8	78.9%
-8 → -2	10-7	58.8%
-8½ → -2½	1-2	33.3%
-9 → -3	18-9	67.7%

In the last three years, it seems like the underdog +3 has been a good bet and that underdogs in general have been pulling their weight better than favorites.
Do totals matter? Another word of advice that some Wong bettors give is to only play games with low totals. The idea certainly makes sense: points are harder to come by in a low-scoring game, so the 6-point tease is worth more. But what does the data say about this in the last three years?

Bet	Record
Underdogs +1½, +2, +2½, +3	176-58	75.2%
Total 49 or under (dog +1½ thru +3)	142-45	75.9%
Total 42 or under (dog +1½ thru +3)	44-14	75.9%

Bet	Record
Favorites -7½, -8, -8½, -9	59-26	69.4%
Total 49 or under (fav -7½ thru -9)	48-19	71.6%
Total 42 or under (fav -7½ thru -9)	16-6	72.7%

Does it matter who is at home? There's some people that tell you not to tease road favorites, but the data hasn't shown that to be good advice in the last three years.

Bet	Record
Underdogs +1½, +2, +2½, +3	176-58	75.2%
Road dogs +1½ thru +3	99-28	78.0%
Home dogs +1½ thru +3	77-30	72.0%

Bet	Record
Favorites -7½, -8, -8½, -9	59-26	69.4%
Road favs -7½ thru -9	17-6	73.9%
Home favs -7½ thru -9	42-20	67.7%

So what does this all mean? Honestly, I'm not sure. Right now, I don't have enough conclusive evidence to say that Wong teasers are indeed a winning strategy in 2020. Besides, all of this seems very data-miney and that makes me uncomfortable.
I'll be using this year to track, in real-time, how these Wong bets are doing. For my tracking this year, I'll be counting underdogs and favorites separately. I won't be paying attention to totals or home/road splits. I'll be including underdog +3 in my tracking, so it probably makes sense to track favorite -9 as well.
What are the Week 1 plays being tracked? I'll be using Bovada's closing number as the determining factor in whether it counts in my tracking or not.
As of the time of this post, the Chiefs are -9½ tonight. If they come down to -9 by kickoff, it counts in my tracking. Otherwise, it doesn't.
As far as Sunday and Monday games go, these are the plays that will be tracked according to the lines as of the time of this post. However, the final list may be slightly different since I'm using the closing number as the determining factor.

• Carolina +3 → +9
• Atlanta +2½ → +8½
• Chicago +3 → +9
• Green Bay +2½ → +8½
• Cincinnati +3 → +9
• LA Rams +3 → +9
• Denver +2½ → +8½
• Baltimore -8 → -2
• Indianapolis -8 → -2

As a long-time contributor to this sub, I know we love nothing more than discussing our degeneracy. If nothing else, hearing such stories makes you realise there are other people out there who have lived similar experiences to you. Stories of epic failure provide a sense of comfort. Stories of unexpected triumphs provide a feeling of hope.
The following bets - and the circumstances surrounding each - were not necessarily story-worthy. However, there were a number of intricate details which I felt were worth highlighting. Aside from the statistical rollercoaster than one experiences throughout a game (i.e. going from "how can this lose?" to "this bet is over"), there are other factors which can have significant ramifications for one's betting endeavours.
This is where the factor of timing comes into play. How often have you bet on something purely due to the fact that the game was starting shortly? It could either be a straight wager on the game. Or, you might have decided to add the short-priced "lock" to boost your odds. How often has this then come back to bite you? Or conversely, this random event - where your betting urge coincided with the scheduled timing of this event taking place - results in a recuperation of losses from previous games that you "studied" prior to placing your losing wagers?
Without further ado, this is my story. It is but a speck in the ocean that is my entire betting career. But it was a Sunday night full of swings, sweats and... well I won't spoil the ending.
As you read this, I want you to keep the headline in mind. Specifically, the words timing, luck and degeneracy.
It's early on a Sunday evening in Melbourne, Australia. Approximately 6PM to be exact. We are currently under the world's strictest COVID lockdown. We have an 8PM curfew, and I was keen to get in a 1 hour walk before returning home to make dinner. Now typically - as I had already walked my dog several hours earlier - I would not go for another on my own. But for some reason, I just had an urge to get some fresh air. Here is the first element in play: timing. At 6:10PM, an AFL (Australian Football) was scheduled to begin. As I begin my walk, I inevitably flick through my preferred bookmaker's iPhone app and this game catches my eye. Part of me says "don't bet it". The other part of me curb-stomps that voice in my head and says "don't be a pussy". Now on another note, I placed a daily deposit limit of $3000 on my account. To some, that is insanely big. I generally bet $1000 or so, and so this stops me from stupidly chasing the day's losses. Here is where another element peaks it's head: luck. I had deposited $1750 that day. Had I reached my limit, the following events would only have existed in a parallel universe. But as luck would have it, I had $1250 to play with. So I said 'fuck it' and made the deposit. It's about 6:05PM now and I don't have much time. I sift through the markets on offer and decide it's best to play a Same Game Multi (parlaying multiple events from the same game). With not much time left to make a decision, I quickly check the weather forecast in Gold Coast (where this game is taking place) and note that there is meant to be rain in the second half. (Spoiler: there was no rain in the second half). As this sport is played outdoors, this would favour the unders. So I come up with a bet that looks like this:

• First quarter OVER 23.5
• First half OVER 48.5
• Full match UNDER 125.5
• West Coast +34.5 handicap
• Margin: either team by 1-39
• Bontempelli 15+ disposals
• Macrae 20+ disposals

ODDS: 4.10
A bet of $1250 would pay $5125.
​
I was ready to place the bet. The problem? The match was only seconds from beginning.
The time stamp on when the bet was accepted:
18:09:55
I made it by 5 measly seconds.
​
Ok, so game begins rather uneventfully. Now it's worth noting for those who aren't familiar with AFL that you can score by 1's and 6's. It's late in the first quarter and the total is sitting at 22 points. Needing over 23.5, I'm in desperate need of a goal. The whole bet is about to come crashing down without it. With only seconds remaining a player marks the ball from a score-able position. The siren sounds. Now in AFL, if a mark is taken before the siren ("buzzer"), the player may take their kick. As luck would have it, this legend kicks it right through the middle of the goal posts, and the first quarter score ends on 28. We live on!
Second quarter ends, and the combined total is 52 points. Again, we survive the over 48.5 by less than a full goal! (But this one cleared with a handful of minutes left to play, so there was no sweat involved).
I'l wrap up the remainder of the game fairly quickly, as it is rather uneventful. The final score is 47-49, so the total under 125.5 hits easily, the +34.5 and margin 1-39 hit comfortably, and both players rack up well over their required disposals. Fantastic. My account hits $5125.
By this stage, some would be satisfied. I wasn't. I was out for blood.
The smart move would have been to withdraw, say, $4000. Play with the remaining $1125 (house money), and lock in a profit. But what's the fun in that?
I scroll through the upcoming events and see that there is a Chinese Super League (soccer) match starting in a few hours. This isn't the first example of degeneracy in this story, but it's probably the biggest.
So what do I do? Another Same Game Multi of course. And how much do I bet on it? $5125 of course.
The bet:

• Beijing Guoan: win or draw
• Total corners: OVER 7.5
• Total goals: OVER 1.5
• BOTH teams to score in BOTH halves: No

ODDS: 1.95
A bet of $5125 would pay $9993.75
​
Here's where the rollercoaster of events begins.
5 minutes in, we have our first corner.
13 minutes in, we have our second.
Corners are looking good.
Fast forward to half time and Beijing are leading 2-0.

• BOTH teams to score in BOTH halves: No = WINNER
• Total goals: OVER 1.5 = WINNER
• Beijing or draw = TBD, but looking good!
• Corners OVER 7.5 = ONLY 2 FUCKING CORNERS IN THE FIRST HALF!

Remember, they had already accumulated 2 corners 13 minutes into the match. 32 minutes without a single corner!
The live odds for over 7.5 were now over 3.00, and I was losing hope.
The second half begins and approximately 10 minutes passes without a corner. I'm fucked.
The next 15 minutes feels like God (aka Bob from NBA Daily Discussion) had blessed me. A flurry of corners results in an 8th corner before the 70th minute mark!
What looked like a total sweat, turned into the easiest of victories. Or so I thought...
The final leg: Beijing or draw - who by the way, were 1.50 favourites to win the match - were still up 2-0. One book had the opposing team at 81.00 odds to win from here. But you guys can guess what happened next.
Wuhan goal!
I'm still leading 2-1. My brain: "it's all good man, you still have a 1 goal buffer".
Barely a few minutes later...
Wuhan goal!
It's now 2-2. My brain: "it's cool, you just need a draw, you're still likely to win this".
Including the 6 minutes of added time, I have to sit through approximately 20 excruciating minutes of soccer, with just under $10k on the line.
Luckily, Beijing did 75% of the attacking. Wuhan did have a few minor chances, but nothing that made the heart sink.
The referee blew the full-time whistle, and I slowly unclenched my ass cheeks.
I waited to see my account balance, just to make sure all was kosher. (You know, we've all been there, when we thought we bet on a certain team, but because their names are all Chinese, you actually bet on the wrong Beijing or something like that).
My balance appeared at $9,993.75.
It was time to call it a night.
I reflected on the past 6 or so hours that I had just been through, and the 3 things that kept popping up in my mind again were timing, luck and degeneracy.
P.S.
Sorry to all the Djokovic and Heat backers. Brutal. Especially Djokovic. I'd say that's a once-in-a-career circumstance, but I think that would be understating how unlikely it is that the best player in the world get's DQ'd because he inadvertently hit a ball into an official's neck out of frustration.

First, I'm sorry this is so long. Second - please be nice. We have debt, bad habits, and are Catholic. So if any of those things are going to get you spun up, just skip this one.
Section One: Assets and Debt Use this section to explain your current financial picture at large.
Everything here is joint – “M” and I have been married 22 years and we’ve had “smashed money” that whole time (and really for about a year before that).
Retirement Balance (and how you got there): Approximately $500,000 in a variety of IRAs and current 401(k)s.
Equity if you're a homeowner (and how much you put down and how you accumulated that payment). Bought our house in 2001 for $239,000 with 20% down (some aggressive saving and a gift from each of our parents). We refinanced, took some cash out for some home repairs, and reduced it to a 15-year loan in 2009 – our current equity would be about $195,000, but similar homes in the neighborhood are listed at $475,000-$525,000, so if we ever sell, we’re probably coming out ahead.
Savings account balance: $6,000
Checking account balance: $6,500
Credit card debt (and how you accumulated it): I hope you’re sitting down. Approximately $40,000. Yes, you read that right. How we accumulated it? The house is 90 years old and constantly falling apart, so we’ve had to charge things that needed to be done (some we wanted to have done, but some – like the time our oil burner stopped working in December – were needs). We had two dogs with numerous medical issues – I don’t want to calculate what they cost me, but they each had surgeries that were about $5,000 (each), plus other chronic and acute medical issues. And yes…for a while, we were doing and buying things we probably shouldn’t have (not bad things, just vacations, clothes, and non-essential home improvements) So…when I’m 100 and greeting people at Wal-Mart, I’ll at least have some good memories. That said, I can’t tell you the last time I used credit – if we can’t afford to pay cash, we don’t do it (and I say that fully realizing most people would feel that I shouldn’t do anything).
Student loan debt (for what degree): None – my husband went to the military and then to work after high school and I went back to community college later in life and paid as I went.
Anything else that's applicable to you: If my ex-husband dies before me, I’ll have about $6,000 in a money market that he must have forgotten about. When we divorced, he was supposed to liquidate all those accounts and give me half. He was an accountant and a SOB, so I never knew exactly what we had, but what I got seemed accurate (it paid for furniture, my wedding to M and part of this house, so I was OK with it). Lo and behold, a couple years ago, I found out we still have this money market account in both names. I tried to find him so we could liquidate/split it, but he’s missing. I get the statements here now, and the good part is he’s older than me, so I’m holding out hope he predeceases me and it will be mine.
Section Two: Income
Income Progression: I've been working in my field for a year and a half, my starting salary was $100,000. I did a salary story with the entire progression – long story short, I’ve made more, and I’ve made less, but this is probably about the average of the last five years.
My husband has been at his job for 14 years – he started there making around $75,000 and now makes $110,000. They usually give him a $10,000 bonus at the end of the year, but are always crying poverty if people ask for a raise. Prior to that, he worked for a company that paid very well and he had a 15-minute commute, but he got out one step ahead of their bankruptcy.
Main Job Monthly Take Home:
Me: $5,152
J: $6,230
Side Gig Monthly Take Home:
M is paid $1,300/month by our parish for serving as Youth Minister.
Any Other Monthly Income: $16.00
I get quarterly dividends on stock I was given when I was born (I may not have been born into money, but apparently my grandparents had friends who thought this was a good baby gift). The last few were around $50, so I divided by 3.
Section Three: Expenses
Rent / Mortgage / HOA fees (please specify how you split it if living with a partner): $3,043, which includes the property taxes and homeowner's insurance
Savings contribution: $500/month without fail (my bank transfers $100 if we get over $500 in, so once each paycheck and once when we put the church check in). More if I feel the savings needs a boost.
Debt payments:

• Credit card #1: $350/month (this is about twice the minimum)
• Credit card #2: $375/month (minimum payment)
• Credit card #3: $200/month (minimum payment - this is the next one getting whacked when #1 is paid off)

Donations: OK – anyone who isn’t screaming because I owe $40K is going to start now.

• $300/month to the church in the “collection basket” (it’s electronic, but same diff)
• $100/month to the church building fund (last year of a five-year pledge, thankfully – if I hadn’t promised to pay it, I wouldn’t)
• $25/month to Habitat for Humanity
• $20/month to Citymeals on Wheels
• ~$50/month to various other charities
• ~$100/month in food for the church food drive (we don’t have a food pantry, but collect food every week and anyone from the neighborhood can come take some. The rest is donated to several food pantries and soup kitchens in the Diocese).
• As far as volunteer hours, M and I both teach Religious Ed. I'm on the Parish Council and co-social media manager of the parish (basically, I schedule Facebook). M also videotapes the 5:00 Mass and the children’s worship message each week and uploads it to the parish YouTube channel.

Electric: $110
Gas (stove/hot water): $50
Oil: $250/month in the winter
Wifi/Cable: $179
Cellphone: $252 for both of us (I get mine expensed except $26 for my phone payment)
Subscriptions:

• $.99/month for iCloud Storage
• $545/month for life insurance for both of us, plus $202 quarterly for the life insurance policies we took out when we bought the house
• $17/month for NY Times online
• $10.86/month for Ring video doorbell
• $12.99/month for Netflix
• $9.99/month for Spotify (I think M gets reimbursed for this, because he has it for Youth Ministry)
• $119/year for Amazon Prime (yes, I know, I am an awful person)

Car payment / insurance: $295/month for my car (leased). My husband is driving a 10-year old car that is paid off. $128/month for auto insurance
Lawn care: $50/month
Commuting: Now that we’re in COVID times, I’ve been buying a 10-trip off peak railroad ticket every five days for $78.75. Pre-COVID, M and I each bought a monthly ticket for $270, and I took the subway most days for an additional $100/month. I fill up the car about once a month (~$36) and M fills his about every other week (~$70/month)
Saturday, September 26, 2020
7:45 am: Up and at ‘em! I get up, get coffee, check emails and social media and start the day.
8:00 am: M leaves the house for a long list of errands, the payment for which will be shown below. I put in a load of laundry and discover…a leak! There is a large pipe between our powder room sink (which I used when I woke up) and the outside world that runs through the basement and is apparently leaking. Yay whee. If you get one thing from this diary, let it be these words of wisdom – don’t buy an old house! No beautiful feature is worth the aggravation! I get the water (I hope it’s water) cleaned up, a load of laundry in, take a shower, do some picking up around the house, get dressed in a Rangers t-shirt and cut off distressed jeans, do my makeup (Olay microsculpting serum and Miracle Blur over the bottom of my face, pink, gray, and violet eyeshadows, a swipe of foundation under my eyes, black eyeliner, black mascara, and dark brown eye pencil. This is standard everyday makeup for me and will be repeated each day. I put volumizing mousse in my hair and blow dry it (also routine).
In the meantime, M gets a haircut ($30 including tip), sets up the video equipment at church, goes to CVS for passport photos that he needs for an application ($18.87), and goes to the religious goods store for a book of the Liturgy of the Hours ($42.31). He is starting formation for the diaconate (the process of becoming a Deacon in the Catholic Church) today, and they said he’ll need that book. He also needs the photos for his application, and he stops at the bank for two money orders – one to send with the background check request and one for his high school transcript ($26). On the way home, he picks up breakfast (brunch?) for us – classic New York BEC, SPK (bacon, egg, and cheese on a roll with salt, pepper and ketchup) for him and egg whites, turkey and swiss cheese on a whole wheat wrap for me ($10.78), as well as cigs for him and vape cartridges for me ($36).
The washing machine isn’t causing any additional leakage, so I move the wash to the dryer and start moving the winter clothes from the portable closet in front of the leaking pipe upstairs (they’re not wet, but we’re going to have to move the closet when the plumber comes).
After eating the egg sandwiches, we get changed for deacon class – I look like a good church lady in black slacks, a black and white flowered shirt with a black tank underneath, and black sandals with a chunky 2.5” heel. M goes with the classic golf shirt and dockers. While we’re getting changed, he mentions he needs new underwear, so I whip out the phone and order him some ($18.64).
6:30 pm: Home from deacon class and Mass and the groceries show up! I ordered them yesterday, but I don’t think the charge went through till today, so here goes. Asparagus, broccoli, celery, bananas, cucumber, lime, grape tomatoes, peaches, carrots, potatoes, spinach, lettuce, zucchini, frozen burgers, ground turkey, chicken breasts, whole chicken, fried chicken and a pot pie for J’s lunches, yogurt, sugar free pumpkin spice creamer (YES! I’ve been looking for it for weeks!), milk, heavy cream, OJ, k-cups, frozen green beans, cauliflower rice, stuffing mix, microwave rice, cake mix (the good ones were on sale), chicken broth, potato chips, and trash bags. Spent $154.95 including delivery, saved $14.50 (very low for me), tipped the delivery guy $10.
7:00 pm: After putting away all that food, what do we do? If you guessed order dinner, you’d be right! I don’t cook on Saturday unless we’re having company. We order from a new taco place – three each and “Mexican wings”. The wings were meh, but the tacos ranged from good to outstanding. $53.78 including tip. After dinner, M starts post-production of the Mass video and I do some laundry, watch the NASCAR race and the hockey game, and play games on my iPad. Remember, you’ll be old someday too!
11:00 pm: I go to the basement to pick up laundry and remember I wanted to order a new garden flag (this isn’t as random as it sounds – all my seasonal decorations are stored in the basement). I have had a cart set up for days with two garden flags ($6.99 each) and four magnetic mailbox covers for my parents for Christmas ($11.99 each) – they’ve talked about having a different one for each season, and I saw them when I was looking for a garden flag. Total with tax and free shipping: $61.94. I love Christmas and generally spend way too much on gifts so I’m trying to start shopping before December and at least spread out the pain. We went to a crafts fair a few weeks ago and I picked up a few things and now I’ve got this done – go me!!
12:30 pm: The hockey game is over (2 OT!) and I go to bed. M is napping waiting for his video production to finish.
Daily Total: $463.27
Sunday, September 27
7:00 am: The alarm goes off – ugh. It’s the first day of Religious Ed (virtual, but I have to do a 9:45 zoom with my 4th graders). Coffee, social media, shower, dress, makeup. Put on a black eyelet dress because we’re going back to church today so M can videotape First Communion. Do the usual makeup/hair thing.
10:30 am: My 4th graders are great and we’re ready to roll (M has on a shirt and tie in honor of the First Communion), and we’re off to Mass. Drop off the food I bought for our food pantry last week and help him video. Of course, the kids are adorable!
12:00 noon: We’re starving after church, so we stop at our favorite local pizza place on the way home. Get a variety of slices for $22.62, including a tip (we’re getting it to go, but I’m tipping everywhere, because I know restaurants have been hurt badly by the pandemic. These folks are in NYC and still haven’t opened inside dining.)
1:30 pm: Ate, ran more laundry, changed into the jeans I wore yesterday and a Yankees t-shirt and call the nail place. Of all my expenses, nails are probably the most non-negotiable – I’ve been getting my nails done for 40 years, and when I couldn’t do so during the lockdown, I was miserable. They can take me right away, which makes me happy.
3:00 pm: All 20 nails done – gel on the fingers and a regular pedicure with callus removal ($75 plus $15 tip = $90). I went with an autumn theme and got copper on the fingers and bronze toes – the nail polish looked in the jar like it would match the toes, but it doesn’t. Stop at CVS for eye cream (Olay for tired eyes) and mascara (L’Oreal Voluminous) - $27 with coupons. M asked me to pick up cigs on the way home, so I do, as well as vape cartridges, which I don’t technically need yet, but it will save a trip later in the week ($36).
3:30 pm: While at the nail place, I saw that one of our favorite local restaurants had a fire, which consumed an entire block of restaurants and small businesses. The Chamber of Commerce is doing a GoFundMe, and I donate $25 to the cause - $28.75 including the charge. I also notice that the weekly charge for my church donation went through ($75).
11:30 pm: Took a quick nap (the highlight of my week every week), put some fall decorations out, had our family Zoom call, laundry, got the end of the winter clothes moved upstairs, had dinner (roast chicken, stuffing, mashed potatoes, and roasted asparagus), made an apple crisp (I’m not a huge dessert person but M is and I like making desserts, so it works), watched baseball, football, the NASCAR race, and basketball, and took a quick shower. Bring a Light & Fit Toasted Coconut Vanilla yogurt (the best!) to bed, finish my book (“Next Stop, Chancey”) and find the next in the series on my iPad – I’ve read them all before, but I’m in the mood for something cozy, especially after reading about the Current Occupant’s taxes – ugh!) , and turn off the lights around midnight.
Daily Total: $279.37
Monday, September 28
6:45 am: I work from home M/W/F and so I can sleep in. Relatively speaking, anyway. Get dressed in a sleeveless top and shorts (despite the fall decorations, fall nails, and roast chicken/apple crisp, it feels rather summery out there), do makeup, have some coffee and scroll through emails/socials, move yet another load of laundry (I’m trying to get it all done before the plumber comes), find the number for the plumber and give it to M to call, get the trash out, and boil some eggs for breakfast this week. I’m sitting in front of the computer by 8:15, which is ok (technically, my hours are 8:30-5:30 – it’s usually more like 8:30-6:00, and on WFH days, starting at 7:30 is not unheard of). M drops off the car at the shop – I think I forgot to mention this, but he mentioned yesterday that when he was driving around Saturday, there was a grinding noise when he backed up. More joy to come, I’m sure.
9:45 am: I hear M on the phone with the garage – apparently, they can get a used part and do the job for $450. Not great, but it’s better than it might have been! He works from home basically every day except when he has to see customers, but thankfully we’re separated enough that we can hear each other but it’s not intrusive.
10:30 am: Between cursing at people on the phone, M calls the plumber and I grab some cheese and more coffee! I’d tell you about my job, but honestly, it’s not worth talking about. Basically, I go to meetings, take notes on meetings, and send follow-ups (I do other things, but that’s most of it). When I get off my 11:00 am meeting, I’ll find out when the plumber is coming. You guys are getting a much more exciting week than I expected!
12:30 pm: What a miserable day – it seems like everyone is annoyed! Take a break to eat a slice of leftover pizza and a Diet Coke (M finishes some rotisserie chicken from last week). He says the plumber may come today to look at the situation but can’t do the work till tomorrow.
6:00 pm: Keep my head down and get some work done in the afternoon and knock off for the day. Run downstairs and make dinner – “tacos” with strips of beef grilled with Korean barbecue sauce, shredded cabbage, cheddar cheese, pineapple salsa, cucumber slices, and lime inside warmed tortillas. Delicious, if I say so myself!
7:30 pm: I get on a Zoom faith sharing meeting and M gets on a Zoom religious ed class.
11:59 pm: Contemplated Sunday’s Gospel with my small group, watched Tampa Bay win the Stanley Cup, took a shower and set clothes out for tomorrow, and off to bed. M picked up the car after Religious Ed.
Daily Total: $450.00
Tuesday, September 29
5:45 am: Ugh. Up and out – I’m wearing a green dress with a black jacket and have black slingbacks in my bag. I have to walk 30 short blocks and five long blocks once I get off the train, so I’m traveling light. I used to take the subway to my office, but since COVID, I try to limit that as much as possible.
7:45 am: Off the railroad and walk uptown. I actually don’t mind the walk, because when I WFH, I walk very little – at the beginning of the lockdown, I had a nice walking routine, but lately the work seems to start the minute I wake up, so walking to work takes care of getting in those STEPS! I forgot my boiled eggs and I’m starving, so I end up buying an egg sandwich. $5.43
12:30 pm: Because I only go to the city twice a week and I have to walk uptown with all my work stuff, I don’t bring lunch often (pre-pandemic, I used to bring breakfast and lunch every day, but I also took the subway). Decide to run to Pret and my boss and co-worker both ask me to pick something up. Of course, no one (including me) has anything but a $20, so they both say they’ll get me next time. I get my favorite chicken parm wrap and a Diet Coke. $32
12:45 pm: I look at my personal email and discover that J’s car registration needs to be renewed. Hop on the DMV website and take care of that. $158.50. I also realize I never took out the sausages for tonight’s dinner and call M to ask him to do so. He mentions the plumber has still not shown up.
5:45 pm: Leave a little early to get to the Fed Ex office and make my train home. I’m a little later than I’d like to be and it’s raining, so I get the subway, which is thankfully empty, reasonably clean, and quick. $2.75
7:15 pm: M picks me up at the train station and mentions that he was so busy working that he didn’t take the sausages out. He asks me what I want to eat and we end up at Wendy’s. Cheeseburger, fries, and (surprise, surprise) a Diet Coke. He gets the same thing, but bigger. $19.75
11:30 pm: Avoid the debate by watching the Yankees pound the Indians. Usual routine (plus ironing a shirt for J, because he has to go to a customer tomorrow) and off to sleep. I’m up to Book 3 in the Chancey series, for those keeping score.
Daily Total: $218.43
Wednesday, September 29
5:30 am: Double ugh. Woke up to use the bathroom and couldn’t get back to sleep, so here we are. Get dressed (long-sleeved Yankees t-shirt, straight leg jeans), do the face, have some coffee, and try to avoid the fact that my boss sent me an email at 11:00 pm last night looking for changes to a document, which I said I would do today. Get the trash out, pick up a little around the house, and get to work by 7:00. OH, and despite the lack of plumber and his lack of general motivation, M moved the plastic closet…in front of the washing machine! Glad I bought him underwear, because I won’t be doing laundry any time soon. Now I’m wondering if he looked at the menu (I am an obsessive meal planner and post it on the fridge weekly) and that’s why he didn’t take the sausages out – he’s avoiding zoodles! He can run but he can’t hide – I have zucchini and I’m going to spiralize it sooner or later!
8:00 am: The document my boss needed is out, the agenda for our 9:00 am meeting is done, the morning emails are sorted (for now), and I got a link to our parish survey up on the Facebook page, so I make an egg and cheese on a tortilla and eat at my desk.
12:50 pm: Wednesday is conference call hell – I have recurring calls every Wednesday at 9:00, 10:30, and 11:30, and the added fun today of a 10:00. There’s also a webinar every Wednesday that I try to tune into. Grab some chips and a Diet Coke and go check it out.
2:15 pm: Still no damn plumber, but I’ll let M worry about that when he’s home tomorrow. My garden flags arrived, so that’s good. Hoping to get out and put the pumpkin one out before it gets dark, but the way today is going, that might not actually happen. However, I realize I never put dinner in the crockpot. Luckily, it only takes 3-4 hours on high, so I take care of that. It’s Tuscan Chicken with sun-dried tomatoes and spinach. By 2:30, I’m back at my desk with another Diet Coke and hard at it. Nightmares of rescheduling meetings, missing documents, etc.
6:45 pm: Still at my desk! OK, I took some time to send an email to the parish webmaster about the survey, update this, and read the R29 money diary of the day. But overall, I’ve been working with no apparent end in sight – I could easily be here all night, but I won’t be because (a) I’m falling asleep at my desk and (b) I have a 7:30 Religious Ed teachers meeting. Hopefully I won’t fall asleep during that. Make a list of things for my boss and I to review tomorrow and finish prepping dinner.
7:15 pm: Dinner was delicious – we had the chicken with rice for M and cauliflower rice for me, sautéed broccoli, and a basic salad (bagged spring mix, cherry tomatoes, cucumber). Now off to Zoom!
11:45 pm: The Yankees game is still on, but I’m showered, my clothes are set out for tomorrow, and I’m fading. Turn off the light and hope for a win.
Daily Total: $0.00 (bet you didn’t see that coming!)
Thursday, October 1
5:45 am: You know it…ugh. Get up, coffee, very quick scroll through the Yankees score/e-mail/social media. Get dressed in a black v-neck sweater, black and gray plaid skirt, and black jacket (not the same one I wore the other day). Am grateful the skirt fits – I gained some weight and am trying to resist buying clothes. Make sure I have the right shoes in my bag – I’m wearing high-heeled gray suede Mary Janes today.
8:15 am: At my desk and ready to go – I remembered to bring 2 hard-boiled eggs today, which I eat with coffee while looking through emails.
12:30 pm: Call after call after call, but I have a half-hour to eat. Run to the fancy buffet place that just re-opened for 2 meatballs, brussels sprouts, broccoli, salad, and the inevitable Diet Coke ($15.75). Manage to eat before my 1:00 pm call – go me!
3:30 pm: Leave to go to a job site and pick something up that has to be shipped to Italy. Something that's almost as tall as me, but thankfully not heavy. Taxi down there because I’m in a hurry and I can get reimbursed ($14.04, including tip), expensed.
4:00 pm: I get a cab to the Fed Ex office – thankfully the first one I see is a minivan, so I fit in just fine ($12.74, including tip), expensed.
5:30 pm: Well, that was harder than it needed to be – the Fed Ex office I went to didn’t have a box that would fit the item, so they suggested another Fed Ex office about 6 blocks away, so I had to walk through midtown Manhattan carrying an object almost as tall as me (it's 5' long and I'm 5'3" tall) while dodging oblivious people. Thankfully, the other office had my box, and they were super-sweet and helpful, but it took them forever to get it done. Bought the box and bubble wrap, which will be expensed (I brought the Fed Ex label, but I don’t remember the account number) ($43.54). Get a nice early train home, though!
6:45 pm: Wow, we’re eating when I’m usually getting the train! Cheeseburgers, tots (tater for J, cauliflower for me), green beans, and vinegar coleslaw with the end of the shredded cabbage. Get the kitchen cleaned and the dishwasher run and settle in to watch the Jets – I’m not holding out much hope, but you never know!
11:30 pm: I’ve showered, set out clothes for me and M (he’s seeing customers tomorrow), I prepped for Youth Group, which I’m leading because he’ll be working, and the Jets are winning, so I decide it’s time to sleep. Up to Book 5 of the Chancey series. I find series usually go downhill after about the third or fourth book, but I’m not sure what I feel like reading, so here we are. OH, at some point M must have gone to the convenience store, because there are vape cartridges on the table ($36).
Daily Total: $122.07; $70.32 expensed
Friday, October 02, 2020
6:00 am: Wake up, grab coffee, find out the Jets lost after all, do the morning e-mail/social media scroll. Leaving early to deal with that work errand has left me with a ton of stuff to do, so I get dressed (long-sleeved v-neck gray t-shirt, white tank because the v-neck is halfway to my belly button, dark wash skinny jeans), put out the trash, peel two hard-boiled eggs, and head to my desk.
12:30 pm: As always, call after call after call. Plus a bit of aggravation when my boss asks me at 10:30 for an agenda for the 11:00 call, which I sent him at about 7:30, and which he returns at 10:59 with the formatting looking like nothing on earth. Yay whee! And a project was mentioned that he forgot to tell me I’d do. So in case I thought I’d have nothing to do (that never happens on Fridays), that’s not happening. Anyway, between calls, I run downstairs for the lunch of champions – a Hot Pocket and a Diet Coke. Just that kind of day.
6:15 pm: Realize I have to run Youth Group at 7 and I haven’t even done my haimakeup. Get that done, heat up some frozen cauliflower rice/broccoli/cheese combination and add some leftover chicken. With a green salad on the side, surprisingly yummy.
8:15 pm: I am not a good youth leader…couldn’t get anyone talking about the subject of the day, which I thought would be a good one. I did make them laugh a few times, so that’s something.
M is going to have some expenses because he went to see customers today, but I don’t know what they are and his company will reimburse him, so I’m just leaving them out.
Daily Total: $0.00
This is the Week That Was:
Food + Drink: $326.06
Fun / Entertainment: $108 (if people can put drugs in as entertainment, I’m putting our nicotine in)
Home + Health: $61.94
Clothes + Beauty: $165.64
Transport: $638.03 (some of it will be expensed)
Other: $234.47
Lastly, reflect on your diary! How do you feel about your spending? Was this a normal week for you? Has this inspired you to make changes or has it given you a “wow I’m doing pretty good” confidence boost? Is there anything you’re actively working on? No need to answer any or all these questions but just use this space to write any thoughts you have!
This was a fairly normal week except for the car breaking and needing to be registered – we're saving some now that we WFH more because M will not bring food from home, but I used to bring breakfast and lunch at least four days a week. I know we should make changes, but I also know we don’t want to – honestly, if you looked at the way I lived 15 years ago, I’ve made a lot of changes already. We’re working on the credit cards – I’ve gotten rid of several already (paid off, not just moved balances around) and we don’t use them at all anymore (I can honestly say I don’t remember the last thing I charged). The bad news is that M’s car is on its last legs, and so I see car payments in our future. Hopefully, he’ll get something used – we have my car when we want to look good going somewhere (mine isn’t super-fancy, it just wasn’t hit by a bus and full of stuff for his job).
OH, and the plumber still hasn’t shown up! But that will be for next week’s expenses.

Any INTP knows the odds are against them all the time and that is enough to deter them. But I've always been a gambler. In middle school I got a multigame mini pool table, table tennis, and Roulette wheel and card table. My friends would come over and gamble money or things. My friend's mom disapproved and made him give me some stuff back (haha). I just didn't know I had to rake games to be "the house." In middle school the black kids taught white kids craps and we'd shoot for dollars. I still love a good dice game. We'd have them on payday after close a couple jobs ago. The shit talking is so much better than poker games.
In HS I gambled poker and chess a lot. My favorite poker game was played where everyone had 2.25g of shrooms in them. No poker faces and it didn't last that long. Not great at poker. I've gambled on Chess pretty successfully. Not great at Spades.
But I'm an INTP and Casinos aren't my thing. Rather gamble at pool at a dive bar.
That said I'm doing a lot of sports betting right now. I once read that a professional sports gambler only wins 55% of the time but they have advanced knowledge in props, parlays, hedging etc. I just figured at college and to a lesser extent pro football, I could pick the winner above 55% maybe even against against--the-spread. My favorite former gf was good at betting on the ponies because she was into horses and leased one, so she had similar inside knowledge as someone who's watched football for 25yrs
I put $150 deposit and got $165 because they passed some BTC savings onto me. First week I bet the full $165. I remember the bets too. $45 on Duke (Lost but beat the spread) Same with the $45 I put on S. Alabama. $45 on Coastal Carolina who won outright against Kansas $45. Because the house rakes the games I'd only win about $40 off each so that's $270. But I put a $30 parlay on all three winning and won $180. Turned $165 into $360 (not exact--change and some numbers were rounded). I qualified for a bonus $165 for betting everything. That's a cool $425.
I thought "Holy Shit I can just go pro" beginners luck. It was also right after I lost my job and I'm moving for a new one mid October. Back to my home city and old neighborhood. Pretty psyched really except moving is a hassle.
Two weeks ago lost $70. I thought that comes with the territory of a pro sports better. I broke even last week. This week I chose a new strategy and bet on 7 games instead of 3. Truth was I don't know a certain percentage. I know games I "know" but I only lost $60. It just feels worse because I went 1-6 instead of two weeks ago when I went 1-2. Plus I lose some change on the low probability parlays.
The problem is that I just dipped into my other $165 to bet on pro football. Put in a couple bets and a parlay. The winnings get transferred into my main account. I'm still up either $80 in my account (I can't cash in the "free money")
My floor is $200 because I wanna make at least $50 off this fun lil exercise but I see how addictive it is for the first time. I even sought out a Bitcoin chess gambling site mainly used by Africans but I don't play because either I'm not better at Chess than Nigerian Royalty or they use chess bots or both. It also was pretty obviously used for money laundering which is what the gambling sites are also used for. Now I'm betting on Sunday football. Not just Saturday.
I guess my cashout ceiling is a grand but I don't see that happening haha.
Point is that wk2 college football this year was like my first joint, the first time I mixed valium-codeine-and a belt of scotch at 14. The first time I painted something halfway decent under a bridge at 16. The first time I fucked a girl at 17. The first time I had an audience in stitches at 22 (standup). All very pleasurable and only relatively routinely done. Except maybe sex and drugs but they have other major downsides.
Hell when I learned to read at 8 I was attached to books my whole life but nobody thinks that's bad. Haha.
Do other people gamble?
I'm extraverted enough that if someone has dice on the street I'll shoot or if they have a chess game at a coffee shop. I'll bet $20.
Best in person bet was with a frenemy in my group who was the epitome of iamverysmart and everyone in my group thought he was a genius. I took $20 off him in front of everyone and he refused to try to win it back. Bad look for him.
I hope I can keep it just for fun. Any other INTP gamblers on here?
Edit: Forgot to mention I won $400+ in a $20 pool for the 2011 March Madness B-Ball tourney. I watched none of the regular season (like usual) but knew UConn was good but nobody picked them as they were a #3 seed. I didn't win most rounds either. Dumb luck. It's funny that I forgot because it was less recent than that grudge match against that guy I played chess against.

Growing up I was never into sports or gambling at all. I used to be the type of person to go to the casino and throw 20 dollars on blackjack or throw 20 dollars on slots and look at it as “you’re going to lose this, but you might win something and if you don’t it’s only 20 dollars and you’re done.” The person I became within a very short time was a far cry from that conservative gambler I used to be.
I saw my friends who were very into sports and gambling start to bet on football on FanDuel and DraftKings Sportsbook and they would win money here and there, but I was dead against the idea. That is until the sportsbooks had a promotion for a risk free bet for 500 dollars. It was the Broncos vs Chiefs. Not knowing much about sports at the time, I knew the Chiefs were gonna absolutely crush the struggling Broncos and I took the Chiefs -8.5 at -110 odds. It was a risk free bet so I thought fuck it, I’ll get my money back if it loses. Well, it won. And the dopamine rush of winning that kind of money for just picking a selection had me hooked. It was better than weed, cocaine, alcohol, or any kind of substance I had experienced before.
Pretty soon I ballooned that almost 1000 bucks into 35 grand over the course of a couple months and I was over the moon. I have a good paying job, but I work a lot of hours and it’s very hard physical work. It’s very draining and I viewed sports betting as a way out and into an easier more prosperous lifestyle to break the cycle of my daily misery. But boy was I in for a surprise...
So then COVID-19 hit and I was forced to stop gambling due to there being no sports. I wish I had stopped for good because I would’ve still had that money, but you can’t turn back time as the saying goes. There was a 2-3 month period where I stopped gambling completely and I was really happy. I never had that much money sitting in my bank account before. I could go on any trip I wanted. I bought a sweet new-to-me Audi in cash. I was elated. But when sports came back things started going downhill...fast...
I got into betting Russian table tennis as stupid as it sounds. I laughed at the idea the books started offering it as a bet, but I got into it studying the lines on betsapi and sofascore thinking I could beat the lines like I did in American professional sports. I had what I thought to me was ‘unlimited bankroll’ so I’d bet 100 at a time on each table tennis match (which last no more than 30 minutes vs 2-4 hours for a pro sport). I was hooked. I’d wake up at 7:00am for work and there would be a full slate and I was betting almost every match possible. Sometimes I would make 3 grand in a day. Sometimes I’d be down 2 grand. It was a roller coaster, but this is where my addiction took a turn for the worst.
After getting addicted to table tennis for 2 month, real sports came back. I wanted to get back into the 500 and 1000 dollar parlays I was making, but I didn’t want to throw all that money up at once. So I would do 100 dollar table tennis bets first thing in the morning and try to get to those dollar amounts. This was my downfall. Chasing loss, after loss on what I thought were “sure fire bets” the money started disappearing rapidly. Soon enough I was broke. But that wasn’t good enough. I have good credit so I went and took out a 7000 dollar loan to get back on my feet.
I promised myself I wouldn’t gamble that 7000, but what did I do? Follow the same path I promised myself I wouldn’t go down. I even won a parlay for 13000, another for 7000, one for 8300, and many for 3-4000. I’m writing you today to tell you still have that 7000 debt and not a single dollar to my name. The last 3 paychecks I’ve gotten have all gone to gambling. Every. Single. Dollar. Within 2 days of getting paid. It’s an absolute ruthless addiction that will take everything from you.
How did I stop? I forced myself to cut access from my money. My bank card held all the power to allow myself to drain my accounts to chase money that I’ll never get back so easily. I’ve come to accept I have to work for what I have even though it’s so hard. Gambling is easy. The consequences are hard. I came clean to my dad and he’s taking over my finances for quite some time. I’m fortunate that it’s only 7k in the hole and I’ve stopped the bleeding now, but not a day goes by I don’t think about that 35k in my bank account. My dad told me something that stuck with me and I think it’s the thing that’s gonna keep me away forever
“Son, that money was never yours. No matter how much you win, you’ll give it all back”
Thank you for listening to my story and I wish all of you struggling the best. You’re not alone. You can beat this. You just have to want it.

Going through old issues of the Wrestling Observer Newsletter and posting highlights in my own words, continuing in the footsteps of daprice82. For anyone interested, I highly recommend signing up for the actual site at f4wonline and checking out the full archives.
• PREVIOUS •
1987
FUTURE YEARS ARCHIVE:
The Complete Observer Rewind Archive by daprice82

1-4-1988	1-11-1988	1-18-1988	1-25-1988
2-1-1988	2-8-1988	2-15-1988	2-22-1988
2-29-1988	3-7-1988	3-14-1988	3-21-1988
3-28-1988	*	*	*

• ”This is horrible, Gorilla.” These words open the issue this week, because Wrestlemania IV is in the books and, well, it was not pretty. Dave is flabbergasted by how bad a show it was, wondering if this was a dream or a nightmare that he hasn’t woken up from. Wrestlemania III was the best wrestling production of all time. It may not have had the best card, but it was entertaining all around and the fans loved it. It set Vince up as the king of wrestling, all-powerful over the business. He’s still the king, but he’s definitely not all-powerful, and Crockett absolutely kicked Vince’s ass on March 27. Financials will take time to come in, and of course McMahon will win that measure, but we can flash back to January 24 for an analogue: The Royal Rumble won even though the Bunkhouse Finals made more money.
  
• Preliminary info Dave has gotten from phoning cable companies and hearing from fans at closed-circuit site is that Wrestlemania interest was down by nearly half of last year’s. The buyrate for ppv could be as low as 6 percent, half of WWF’s expected 12% and still way down from last year’s 10.3%. Even so, the PPV gross would be $10.8 million, of which WWF can expect no more than $3.5 million, plus an estimated $2.3 million from a minimum 175,000 (last year had 375,000) at closed-circuit and a live gate of about $ million and an undisclosed site fee from Donald Trump for putting on the show. The early (and I mean early, don’t get attached to these numbers) overall estimate is a total gross of $14 million, with WWF netting maybe $6.5 million, a far cry from the $18 million they were predicting their take would be. How much was because Crockett ran the Clash? How much was because WWF just has been less interesting? It’s hard to say, but Crockett hurt McMahon way more than anyone could have anticipated.
  
• As for the shows themselves, just absolute night and day between them. Crockett’s Clash was a really solid show. It wasn’t as polished a production and only had 30 minutes of wrestling in the first 90 minutes of the show, though this was to allow Sting/Flair to work without commercial breaks so it was an overall benefit. The matches, minus the barbed wire one, were all good. The crowd was into it. Two excellent matches. Probably best to never let Steve Williams talk again, though. The Jim Cornette and Eddie Haskel bit was great and made Bob Uecker and Gene Okerlund look worse than they were. Meanwhile, Wrestlemania made Starrcade 1987 look like Starrcade 1985, and that’s too nice to say even. WWF’s guys, rather than working harder because it was Wrestlemania, opted to phone it in instead because Wrestlemania itself would carry the day. Even Jesse Ventura had no good lines and coasted while Gorilla was like soundbites of his Wrestling Challenge commentary.
  
• Anyway, Dave breaks down the major problems for WWF, as he sees them. 1) Hogan - he’s too over, to the point he overshadows everything else and by booking him as just one of the guys in the field, they completely devalued their star attraction. And instead of putting Randy over at the end, which they need to do if they’re going to try and have him be even close to as over as Hulk has been, they put Liz and Hulk over. “It’s like Randy can’t even order a taxi cab unless Liz tells Hulk to flag down the cab.” 2) Hindsight is always 20/20, but Trump Plaza was a terrible venue for a Wrestlemania, and the crowd just wasn’t a wrestling crowd, so they were not invested at all. 3) Steroids. Dave supposes he’s probably the most hated person in the world among the heavy steroid users in the business because of all the nicknames he gives them, but in all seriousness it was embarrassing to watch so many guys get blown up in a minute or two to where they couldn’t even pace out a five minute match. Like, take out the health issues, take out any sense of blame on the guys, Dave says. The tournament was embarrassing. It wasn’t funny to see the guys fail like this. It was just sad. 4) The tournament as a concept flopped. It gave fans no specific issue to focus on because belts in modern wrestling just don’t mean anything to fans - the real draw is the big personalities, and WWF proved it with this show: the only matches anyone cared about were the ones with Hogan and, to a lesser extent, DiBiase and Savage. 5) Spoilers. Too many people knew the outcome, and giving Savage the title is almost a mistake after you’ve given so many spoilers of your own show. ABC News did a report the morning after, saying “Randy Savage was the winner at Wrestlemania, but of course everyone knew it since the WWF magazine had printed the result three weeks ago. The WWF claims the magazine report was simply a typographical error.” Anyway, Dave is sick of people blaming him for their wrestling promotions not being able to draw fans at live shows when they aren’t interesting enough. Newsletter subscribers are maybe 0.002% of the viewing audience - if all Dave’s subscribers quit watching nobody would notice in the viewing numbers. Meanwhile, the fans who read newsletters are probably the most dedicated and put more money into the business than the “marks” do and will be the ones stubbornly holding on to the end if the business somehow were to die. So don’t blame Dave if your show sucks and your creative is bad and you give away your finish weeks ahead of time and don’t even bother changing it.
  
• Anyway, Wrestlemania preliminary numbers time. About 540,000 homes on PPV, plus 195,000 through closed-circuit, as far as the U.S. goes. They did just 95 closed-circuit sites in the U.S., 39 of which had less than 2,000 capacity. No word on Crockett’s ratings, but if they hit a 5 on TBS that’s about 2 million homes.
  
• So all that said, time to look at the Wrestlemania card. Good production, particularly the opening graphics, but not as far ahead of Crockett as last year now that they’ve upped their game. Battle royal started hot and quickly became your standard boring battle royal. The Hart/Badnews angle at the end saves the match from a dud and gets it half a star. DiBiase vs. Duggan was real slow for a five minute match, and Duggan no longer resembles the worker he was in UWF/Mid-South just a couple years ago. Very little heat. 1.5 stars. Muraco vs. Bravo gets half a star, and both were blown up by the double clothesline like they’d wrestled a hard 20 minutes, but the whole match was under 5. Valentine vs. Steamboat saw Valentine look tired and old, and just not have his famed longevity anymore. Good finish, solid work even with the timing issues. Steamboat coming out with his son and being able to be lost in the moment of just being a proud father was “a tremendous sight” for Dave. 2.25 stars. Savage vs. Reed got a pop for the finish but nothing else, really. 1 star. One Man Gang vs. Bam Bam Bigelow wasn’t good. It was obvious how bad Bigelow’s knee was, and that takes away his agility, which is the thing that sets him apart. Dave says this is a -1.5 star match in a vacuum, but considering Bam Bam’s condition he’s not going to rate it that low and calls it a dud instead. Rick Rude vs. Jake Roberts was a 15 minute draw and Dave hated it. He hated Rude’s tights, the many long rest holds, the fact that there just weren’t any moves in there to pop the crowd, and the fact that the crowd chanted boring. Worst match of the year candidate. -2 stars. Ultimate Warrior blew up before he entered the ring for his match with Hercules and the match was bad. -1.5 stars, and Dave says it was worse than Rude vs. Roberts, but gets a better rating for knowing when to be done quick and not overstaying its welcome like the other match did.
  

Watch: Cleanse your palate with Hogan’s weird promo from Wrestlemania about faultlines and Donald Trump caring about his family

• Wrestlemania continued, because holy shit that was a really long paragraph and we needed an intermission. Round two saw Hogan and Andre go to a double disqualification to start off. Andre could barely stand by two and a half minutes in. Lots of shenanigans, Virgil took a nasty suplex on the floor where Hulk didn’t protect him at all, but there’s a glimmer of a future face push for him at least. Maybe his father’s a plumber, Dave quips. Half a star if you ignore the posing at the end (dud if you count the posing). But really, the crowd came to see Hogan pose. DiBiase vs. Muraco had no heat but decent action for its short stay. 1.5 stars. Savage vs. Valentine was good, well-paced with good action. 2.5 stars. Beefer vs. Honkytonk Man amazed Dave since neither was over at all when both usually are decently over. Sherri Martel made more noise than the entire audience. Loads of shenanigans, Beefer’s new haircut makes him look like a Davey Boy Smith with less wrestling ability, dud. Islanders and Heenan vs. Koko and the Bulldogs had some decent comedy and started okay, but got boring quick. 1.25 stars. Savage vs. One Man Gang was watchable but the finish sucked. Half a star. Demolition vs. Santana and Martel was solid throughout, although the crowd seemed on Demolition’s side. If the crowd had been responsive this would have been a really good match rather than just pretty good at 2.5 stars. DiBiase vs. Savage saw the crowd missing “two top-flight guys trying to work a good match” because they were watching the entrance waiting for Hogan. Savage sends Liz to get Hogan, Hogan evens the odds, Savage wins, Hogan must pose. 2.25 stars. Once round two started, the show was pretty decent, Dave thinks, just the first half of the show wasn’t RestholdMania, but Rigor Mortis Mania.
  
• Over in Crockett Country, it’s a whole different story. They drew 6,000 fans to the Greensboro Coliseum, and all six thousand were champing at the bit for the show, which created a great energy that the wrestlers fed on for their matches. Rotunda retained the TV Title against Jimmy Garvin in the amateur rules match with a one-count pin, pinning Garvin a minute into the second round. 2.5 stars. The Midnight Express beat the Fantastics by DQ to retain the U.S. Tag Titles in a classic Memphis style brawl that was so action packed the cameras missed a lot of it. Dave gives them 4.25 stars, saying the action earned it 4.5, but the overused finish with the over the top rope throw and the referee reversing the decision lost it half a star, but then the post-match action with Corette lashing Bobby Fulton’s back with a belt got it back a quarter star. Dusty and the Road Warriors (the Rhode Warriors, I almost typed) beat Warlord and Barbarian and Ivan Koloff in a real short barbed wire match, and Dave notes the resemblance between Dudty wearing facepaint and a black t-shirt and Dump Matsumoto (with the notable difference that Dump is prettier). Ivan was bleeding after 20 seconds and Dusty after 90. Dave hates these matches - everyone gets all cautious and careful and stays in the center of the ring, so nothing really happens. 1 star. Luger and Barry Windham beat Arn and Tully for the NWA Tag Titles. Good match all around, 3.5 stars. Flair and Sting had a 45 minute draw for the NWA Title in a match of the year candidate. Slow pace to start, but the heat kept up and they weren’t dull and Flair sold the hell out of every rest hold. Jim Ross and Tony Schiavone did fantastic work on this, particularly Ross who sold the intensity and importance of the match, which was critical for the first half (if only he were still able to do that today). There were supposed to be three judges, but there were five people at the table, only two of them didn’t vote, so no idea what the point there was. Anyway, Patty Mullen (Penthouse Pet of the year and who had been on Ric’s arm the night before on tv) picked Flair. Gary Juster, former NWA promoter, voted for Sting. Sandy Scott then ruled it a draw, and nothing came of the judging gimmick which made it utterly pointless. 4.75 stars
  

Watch: Clash of the Champions. I’ve set it to start with the Steve Williams promo because it needs to be heard to be believed

• During Clash of the Champions, after the first match, there was an ad on TBS for the WWF 900 number advertising play-by-play for Wrestlemania. WWF managed to get an ad on TBS during Crockett’s big special, and that’s hilarious. They also ran the first ad for the new Four Horsemen vitamins, which was hilarious but unintentionally so, and Dave thinks they aren’t going to sell a lot of those vitamins.
  
• Last week Dave teased a big story, and it’s that Crockett has been negotiating with Ken Mantell of World Class Dave didn’t give any details beyond the tease last week because he was hoping to get more before press time. He promises to never note a major story the way he did again without giving more details up front, because he expected more details to break before he had to print copy but it didn’t. Anyway, negotiations have been ongoing for ten days and there are conflicting reports. Crockett’s goal is taking over World Class the way they did Florida, getting the valuable channel 11 time slot on Saturday nights in Dallas. They’re going to need Fritz on board to complete the deal, though. If it does go through, Kerry and Kevin will have guaranteed work and a push in the NWA, but neither really seems to want the travel, so they’d likely get a deal for local stuff and maybe occasional work in St. Louis. The bottom line everyone needs to consider, though, is that Mantell and Michael Hayes may be the most creative bookers anywhere right now, but they aren’t turning WCCW’s business around and it just may not work out that they can. Dave doesn’t expect a deal done now, but he thinks Mantell and Hayes may give themselves until May to see if their hard work will pay off before considering any offers.
  
• An example of that creative booking is the WCCW title change on March 25 in Dallas. Hayes was at ringside with Kerry while Black Bart and Buddy Roberts were for Parsons. Iceman King Parsons is one of the least likely champions in wrestling history, and the match wasn’t particularly good, but the finish saw the lights go out after Terry Gordy came down, at which point Bart and Roberts used flashlights to blind the fans in the front row so nobody could see what happened. When the lights came back on, Kerry was knocked out in the ring, Hayes was bleeding on the floor, nobody knew who hit whom, and Parsons pinned Kerry to win the belt. They even had Kerry carted out on a stretcher. Dave doesn’t think (and actively prays against) Parsons will hold it for long. Hayes looks like the best prospect (nope. It’s going back to Kerry in May at the Von Erich Memorial Parade of Champions). Also, I just learned that King Parsons is his real legal name. I always thought combining Iceman and King was a weird combo of gimmicks, so that solves a mystery for me.
  

Watch: Iceman King Parsons wins the WCWA World Title

• Eddie Gilbert is leaving Memphis to book for Continental beginning April 10. Continental’s business is bottoming out and it’ll be interesting to see if Gilbert and Missy can get things going there again like they did in Memphis. This also puts Memphis in some dire straits, since the Gilberts were basically all their storylines and they were drawing triple what they had been by giving the Gilberts such big spotlight, so they’re in trouble.
  
• Lanny Poffo, brother of WWF Champion Randy Savage, has a book coming out called Wrestling with Rhyme. It’s a book of poetry coming out in late April and will be available at Walden Books. Man, I remember when Walden went out of business. It was a sad day for me.
  
• The only news Dave has from Japan right now is that Bruiser Brody beat Jumbo Tsuruta for the International Title at Budokan Hall on March 27. Tenryu also retained his PWF Title against Hansen.
  
• Roddy Piper’s latest project is a new film going into production called They Live.
  

Watch: They Live trailer

• A correction on the Bruno Sammartino stuff. WWF isn’t trying to ban Bruno from using his name. They’re trying to ban him from using the trademarked nickname “The Living Legend” in contexts outside WWF. There’s a lot of talk about his radio interview , and some excerpts in the mail section of this issue.
  
• There’s a film in the works about former Olympic and pro wrestler Chris Taylor. Taylor was a 450 lb wrestler from Iowa who won bronze in the 1972 Olympics and died in 1979. A book about him called “The Gentle Giant” is being adapted into a film, currently called “Lean On Me.” That does not wind up being the title, and I can’t find a movie based on him so this might have gotten scrapped. In other biopic news, no word from Hollywood on any upcoming Hulk Hogan movie.
  
• WWF went up to the number 4 slot in the syndicated ratings for the week ending Feb. 28. They had a 10.6 rating, an increase on the previous week. Crockett’s network fell to number 9 with a 7.6.
  
• Paul E. Dangerously firing Joe Pedicino, Gordon Solie, and Boni Blackstone on Pro Wrestling this Week aired this past weekend. It was fantastic stuff, and Paul has cemented himself as one of the top managers in the business. This is all part of a reformatting of the show to a 30 minute format with Pedicino and Patrick Schaeffer (who was the mastermind behind Global doing an IPO to build up a million dollars of operating capital) at the helm, with Schaeffer as the heel commentator.
  
• Crockett had a big angle taped on March 21 that they aired this past Saturday, involving Magnum T.A. Magnum was doing an interview when Tully and J.J. came out, then Barry Windham came out and Tully popped Windham with a hit, then hit Magnum. J.J. was behind Magnum and helped Magnum gently go to ground, then Dusty barged in with a baseball bat and swung for the fences on Tully, then knocks out Jim Crockett without realizing who he’s swinging at when Jim and David Crockett and Rob Garner try to restore order. Jim Cornette did a tearful interview about his “good friend Jim Crockett” and Magnum even bladed, though that last didn’t make it to tv. Later on, Magnum came out and hit Tully with a bat in a match to cause a disqualification. Dave loved the concept here at first because you have to imagine Magnum hates being on the sidelines and wants to be involved to some extent and this gives him something to sink his teeth into. At the same time, “the idea of beating up a cripple, which unfortunately is the reality of the situation” is just kind of pathetic. That said, it’ll draw, and it’ll let Dusty (with Magnum in his corner) push himself as top star once again, and it may even be enough to put heat back on Dusty vs. Tully. Dusty will be suspended for 120 days come Saturday’s tv (taking us into July - will we see the Midnight Rider face Flair at the Bash, Dave wonders), Dusty will return as the Midnight Rider with Magnum at his side, and he’ll likely get the U.S. title in the tournament they’re going to hold in May.
  

Watch: Tully suckerpunches Magnum

• The Oregon State Athletic Commission held a public hearing on March 18. Topics mostly stuck to safety concerns such as cleaning the mats, barriers at ringside, security, mats on the floor by ringside, etc. A lot of wrestlers were there, along with Billy Jack Haynes and Don and Barry Owen. Most of the wrestlers were negative about the Owens’ promotion, with only Tony Borne and Art Crews saying anything positive. Borne testified against the idea of using mats outside the ring, saying it’s not going to help as much as it hurts the visual effect of a spill to the floor. He also said the commission’s drug testing proposal went too far by including painkillers and marijuana on top of cocaine. The commission indicated they’ll be looking at action like the use of chairs in the future and potentially issuing fines. They also clarified their stance on blood: hardway is good, blading is bad. It’s pretty absurd to say that the more dangerous way of getting color is good but blading is bad, but this whole blood thing has become a thing for commissions around the country because blading sounds absolutely insane to people outside the industry, and even Dave has mixed feelings about it. On the one hand, blading is a minor safety issue at best, especially compared to rampant steroid and drug use and nasty bumps. On the other, Dave’s not sure fans are really drawn by excessive bleeding either, and probably actually turns off a large number of potential casual viewers. It doesn’t hurt if kept rare, but it doesn’t help if half the matches have it. And more dangerous to the wrestlers in a blood match than AIDS (they’re more likely to get that from outside activities) is scabies, which Owen’s wrestlers had an outbreak of not too far back. Rip Oliver said he’s gotten scabies four times since July and wound up giving it to his wife and kids on top of it. The outbreak led the Commission to pass a ruling against wrestlers working while they have communicable diseases and that they must notify promoters.
  
• Eddie Gilbert vs. Jerry Lawler on March 21 drew 6,000 fans for Memphis. Gilbert won in what’s being hailed as a great match (and Dave’s heard their match the week before was even better). On tv on March 26 Gilbert acted like he was going to throw fire at Lance Russell, which got Lawler out from backstage in his first tv appearance in a month. They wound up brawling into the parking lot and Gilbert slammed Lawler on the hood of a car, shattering the windshield.
  
• Scott Rechsteiner, using the ring name Scott Steiner, debuted as a babyface in Memphis recently. No mention of peaks or freaks yet.
  
• Some random trivia about AWA Tag champ Paul Diamond. His real name is Tom Boric, and he was born in Winnipeg, you idiots, on May 11, 1961. He played soccer for the Tampa Bay Rowdies in the old North American Soccer League and was drafted sixth in the 1980 collegiate draft by the Calgary Boomers, before getting traded to Tampa in 1982. He stayed until the NASL folded, which is when he got into wrestling.
  
• Anyway, Diamond and Tanaka won the belts because the Midnight Rockers wanted $500 a week guaranteed to stay and Verne doesn’t believe in guaranteed money. They don’t appear to have left yet.
  
• [Continental] Looks like Eddie Gilbert is replacing Robert Fuller and going to be sole booker.
  
• [USA] The other spinoff from the old Continental promotion ran its first big show in Knoxville, drawing a $10,000 gate. Previous sellouts there hit $27,000, to give an indication of relative value there. Not a lot to report about this. Moondog Spot is there as “The Dog.” He’s not a big dog. He’s not a little dog. He’s The Dog.
  
• WCCW drew 1,700 on March 25 for their Dallas show, where Kerry dropped the title to Parsons. The other main event had Michael Hayes vs. Buddy Roberts, and Roberts kept trying to apologize for hitting Hayes, but Hayes wasn’t going to let it slide. Terry Gordy did a run in and broke things up, and told Hayes they sold Angel of Death’s contract so they can all be friends again. Hayes walked out on Gordy, though.
  
• [WCCW] Fabulous Lance keeps getting booked for shows but hasn’t returned. His agent still doesn’t want him to be a heel because it’ll cut down his opportunities for tv and modeling work.
  
• To illustrate how bad business is for World Class, here’s the biggest gate they drew out of three shows last week in Mississippi: $783.
  
• A man named David Peschel of Washington, New Jersey is suing Randy Savage for a million dollars. He alleges that Savage punched and bodyslammed him when he got out of his car at a light to ask Savage for his autograph. He describes Savage as 6’4” and 280 lbs, prompting Dave to ask if this was maybe a different Randy Savage.
  
• Rumor has it that Angelo Poffo put a $1 bet on the Wrestlemania tournament. Apparently, his bet was on Ted DiBiase.
  
• According to a sumo journal in Japan, Futuhaguro is 99% certain he won’t go into pro wrestling. Koji Kitao will debut near the end of 1989 in the AWA, so I’ll put my dollar bet on the 1% chance.
  
• Reader Mike Rodgers attended the Oregon commission hearing on March 18 and writes about his take. The commission is making big improvements to safety that he thinks are great, but thinks they’re overstepping by wanting to legitimately fine wrestlers who use foreign objects or chairs, and says they don’t understand “that promoters do what they can to fill up arenas.” Banning the blade but not blood is just going to increase the chance of legitimate injury, and it’s part of the proof that the commission really isn’t smart to what wrestling really is about.
  
• We get a really long letter on Bruno’s radio interview. The writer taped the second hour and is hoping to get tape of the first hour. But before getting to the good stuff, he first wants to note that lying and silly gimmicks didn’t start in 1984 (was Gorilla Monsoon really from Manchuria? Didn’t Bruno employ gimmick wrestlers when he booked Pittsburgh? How about when he’d blade and claim to have spent the night hospitalized receiving transfusions) and that Bruno’s not really got a leg to stand on for “wrestling must be credible and it is an insult to the fans’ intelligence to lie to them.” Fans knew then just as they know now that it’s a work, but that doesn’t matter - you watch the show because it’s entertaining and you want to see the magician do their tricks. Also, the writer weighs in that the real story with the Main Event will be told by the demographic breakdown rather than the overall rating. In other words, is Hulk Hogan the Demo God? Anyway, after all this preamble, we finally get some quotes from the interview:
  
• Bruno denies blading happened in his day but says “today, nothing would surprise me.”
  
• Says he’ll never work for the NWA. “I wouldn’t touch it with a 50-foot pole.”
  
• He breaks kayfabe on George Steele and says he’s been a teacher for years.
  
• He thinks Bobby Heenan is a “dud and a disgrace” to wrestling.
  
• He compliments Ric Flair as a guy who can give you an exciting 30 or 40 minute match, but the NWA “have an awful lot of bizarre nonsense in there that, to me, is no good.”
  
• He says David wanted to be like him and he tried to warn David that these days they aren’t interested in “guys who just want to wrestle” but he’ll be going to Japan where they appreciate that better.
  
• He didn’t like doing commentary. He just clocked in, did his job, and left as soon as he was done. He was very uncomfortable and unhappy doing it.
  
• Bruno says WWF didn’t really have anything great to generate interest in the tournament for Wrestlemania.
  
• A caller asks if his wrestling was all real, and Bruno says “Well, it was in my day, at least I thought it was.
  
• We get a letter that feels so much like it could have been a post here on /SquaredCircle when Dave rated Omega/Okada 6 stars that I’m posting it in its entirety. Be warned, it is long, kind of racist, and absolutely bonkers, but that’s not unfamiliar around these parts. It gets the headline “Sick of praise for Japan.”
  

I get so sick of the way that people talk about Japanese wrestling. There’s no question it should be covered extensively in the Observer because it is a significant part of the wrestling world. However, when you start printing letters that criticize the American society and the jazz scene, then you are going way too far.
Anyone who thinks the Japanese never forsake quality for showmanship is full of it. The rock group KISS has enjoyed phenomenal success there because of their wild appearence [sic] and stage show. In fact, when they stopped wearing their makeup in the United States, they waited almost two years to do the same in Japan because they knew they wouldn’t be accepted there without it. And what about the movie industry? Do you think Godzilla movies are popular because of great acting?
As a student, I find teachers constantly comparing the American intelligence with that of the Japanese. I’m sure that the wrestlers love being compared to Japanese wrestlers as much as I love being compared to Japanese students. The Japanese do well at everything because they become obsessed with it. For them, it’s a matter of pride. If they screw up, it’s not only a mark on themselves but also on their entire family. You may think that’s great, but it puts a lot of pressure on everyone. They spend hours studying and I’m certain spend hours learning wrestling skills and have no time for themselves. Cut the North American wrestlers some slack. They’re just trying to make a living and preserve their bodies in the process. Look at what trying to wrestle like the Japanese did to Tommy Billington. Everyone would love matches filled with nothing but high spots, but working them is a great way to destroy yourself in a hurry. Now there is no excuse for total duds like Hulk Hogan and Andre the Giant either, but there are many non-Japanese who can hold their own without going crazy about it. I wonder how many Observer readers can honestly say that they work as hard at their own jobs as the Japanese in the same profession do. If they do, then I think they would quality [sic] as workaholics.
If there is anything wrong with our society, it’s the lack of national pride, which is so evident in the pages of the Observer. You seem to hate everything that wasn’t imported from the other side of the world. I have absolutely nothing against the country of Japan or Japanese wrestling, but I don’t think it’s up to a bunch of wrestling fans to dictate what’s wrong with our country just because they prefer the Oriental style of wrestling. I think the Observer is great, but I’d like to see you stick to writing about wrestling instead of how rotten our way of life is. I’m sure that’s what a Japanese journalist would do.

• Anyway, Dave responds to that letter, giving the writer only 4 stars because it’s not in the literally-only-opened-a-couple-weeks-ago Tokyo Dome:

DM: Have I ever written about how rotten our quality of life is or done any cultural comparisons between the U.S. and Japan except to where it pertains to the wrestling business? If I lived in Japan and made a comparison of the quality of the football product and wrote the U.S. product was superior, I hope people wouldn’t take it as an indictment against an entire society.

• Lastly, it’s about that time of year, I guess, because we have letters arguing about whether Dave should include GLOW coverage or not. Two letters this week on that theme, the first noting what the writer calls a progression in the letters calling for more coverage of women’s wrestling. First were the calls for more coverage of “conventional” women’s wrestling. Then the calls for GLOW coverage. Then POWW. Guess the next will be coverage of the apartment house wrestling scene, the writer supposes. The other writer claims to speak for 90% of subscribers and says Dave would offend that much of his readership if he covers GLOW and POWW and says that if you even consider GLOW to be pro wrestling, you’re incapable of understanding what makes a match good or not. This one asks if Dave’s going to be asked to cover mud wrestling next. There’s no misogyny problem in wrestling fandom. Move along. Nothing to see here.
  
• Back to news, the Kentucky Athletic Commission has put up some new rules. There are to be guard rails around the ring now. Throwing an opponent over the top rope will result in a fine or suspension. Ditto for any referee who doesn’t immediately stop the match for it. The top rope rule is now state law, as insane as that sounds.
  
• Dave should have national numbers next week, but in Atlanta Clash of the Champions drew an 11.7 rating, with the FlaiSting match hitting 14.5 National numbers will not be nearly that high, but hitting that 5 Dave mentioned earlier that would mean 2 million viewers doesn’t seem so far fetched anymore. Clash beat the NCAA tournament on the networks in Atlanta. TBS is reportedly looking to do another in prime time on a Wednesday early in the summer.
  
• Stampede set up an angle where Johnny Smith (kayfabe Davey Boy’s cousin or brother or something) argued with Diana Hart Smith, which got Owen out to defend his sister. Davey Boy was supposed to come in after Wrestlemania to work with Johnny, but Vince put the kibosh on that. There were also considerations for some Stampede guys to participate in the Crockett Cup, but politics (Vince) made that a no-go. So it’s probably no coincidence that when Owen did the job for Hercules it was just outside Greensboro. Anyway, the real takeaway is that Owen is probably coming over to WWF by the end of the year.
  

NEXT WEEK: Clash vs. Wrestlemania poll results, Clash ratings and Wrestlemania buyrate, an assload of mini headlines because news is apparently thin next week, and more

Thursday Night Recap: Well, I think that game told us everything we need to know about JAX. They are going to be very inconsistent. To play the games they played in week 1 and 2 and then come home and put up a stinker against a bottom team in the league... So, the Jags are now in my list of teams in 2020 that I will bet as dogs, but never as favorites.
We did ok on the evening. +1 Unit and our BBDLS is live going into the UFC fight tomorrow.
Singles (1-1,+2u)
Parlays (0-1, -1u)
Teasers (none)
BBDLS (still alive) Update, Costa got rocked. BBDLS dead!
Weeks 3 is upon us. Lets check out the match-ups! :D
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1PM Games
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LV at NE: Both teams looked pretty great offensively last week. Cam is the only other player I still seem some value on for MVP. The most important thing to me in this game is Coach vs Coach.
Is there more confidence in Gruden and his defense vs Bellichek calling for Cam? OR Bellichek and his defense at home vs Derrick Carr traveling across the country?
This early in the season is the time when its any given Sunday, but on a short week for LV and a full week for NE, don't see NE giving this one up at home very often. The spread is a bit high, but NE looks like a great candidate for a Teaser.
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LAR at Buf: First undefeated matchup of the day. It seems as if the Rams have a better pass rush, but the Bills have the better overall defense. The Rams are traveling East again after flying to Philly last week and back to LA.
Goff looks great this year. He Superbowl slumped last year; having no running game hurt him tremendously. But, this year it seems as if the team is finding an offensive rhythm and giving Goff enough time to spread the ball around.
My Algo is high on LA and says this spread should be LA -2. Since our Algo has LA at a 55% win, win or lose, this is an easy +EV Bet on the Rams. Also another great candidate for a Teaser.
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Hou at Pit: Oh boy, am I excited to see this one! PIT really let me down last week allowing DEN, with a back up QB, to get a back door cover. HOU SHOULD be undervalued as they are 0-2. However, lets remember both of their losses came to the Chiefs and Ravens...
I have this weird feeling this is going to be one of those road dog gets an early lead and the favorite has to battle back to try and last drive win or not. It is extremely hard for 0-2 teams to make the playoffs so I look for all the 0-2 teams to give MAXIMUM POWAH! The Texans are the best 0-2 team IMO.
With a middle of the road total, the Texans not only look like another good candidate for a Teaser but have value on the spread and the ML.
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SF at NYG: What will happen in this game?! NY Giants, Saquan, out. SF, Everyone out. I have gone against SF in both weeks and so far they are 1-1. If there was another week to fade them, I am sure this has to be it. Back to back road game, Missing like 10 key players including the QB and Star TE...
I can't see laying points with SF with those conditions, that leads me to believe there is value on the NY points side. BTW, another 0-2 team. You know they want to compete till the end.
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Ten at Min: I am extremely torn on this one. I think TEN D still has some work to do to become playoff ready. But, the Min D has a ton of work to do just to win a game... I feel like MIN and PHL are on down years but it is sooooo hard for me to bet against Zimmer, especially at home. Depending on game script, this could be Dalvin Cooks wake up game.
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Was at Cle: This seems like I could give almost the same analysis as the Cincy/CLE game. Cle should put this away but 7 is a big number so be weary of backdoor covers. If CLE wants a shot at the extra wildcard spot this year, they NEED to take care of business this game. Washington on back to back road games and a non-favorable schedule this year. This should be good practice for two teams trending in opposite directions.
CLE is my Favorite pick in the teasers this week.
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Cin at Phl: Well, well well. The only battle of two 0-2 teams. I have been riding the Eagles suck train for the first two weeks now, and Joe Burrow getting two backdoor covers on his first two starts has me wanting to ride that train again.
The Eagles did look ok for the first half of last weeks game, but after a pick from Wentz, the energy shifted and the Eagles were left behind. Even IF the Eagles can pull it together as a team to get a win, I still like the young Burrow to fight till the end of games.
Might even sprinkle a little ML action on Cincy here...Eagles D still feels like hot trashhhhh
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Chi at Atl: Our last 0-2 team (that has a chance) Chi has looked...ok. I take it back, Tenn isnt the worst 2-0 team, Chicago is. Without an outlier performance 4th quarter in game one and the Giants losing Saquan in game 2, Chi could theoretically be 0-2. ATL defense is starting off the year like they did last year, by just getting dressed but not really playing. This is looking like another big offensive year for Matt Ryan, followed by some horrible coaching decisions and stupid losses by his defense playing the worst zone defense known to man.
In this game though? I have to side with the 0-2 home favorite. There is a reason they are 0-2 vs a 2-0 team and still giving points. You don't see MIN as a clear favorite and they have a coach that knows what he is doing!
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NYJ at Ind: I cant write about this game. I very much dislike Rivers and don't like taking him when he has to cover more than a TD. I already gave him his chance in week 1. I think he is full capable of winning a blowout in this game and dominating the news cycle next week, but I just cant take this many points with anyone other than the Chiefs and Ravens
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4PM Games
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Car at LAC: All the interesting games to talk about today and then this game is squeaked in there. CMC, gone. Tyrod Taylor, out for another week at least. Herbert...dropping sherbet scoops out to everyone.
Honestly, offensively, CAR didn't look that bad. Teddy looks like young Watson, in that he's chased everywhere but still makes some things happen. LA with a 1st time starting backup QB that didn't know he was playing... had success and honestly Herbert looked a lot like Drew Lock last year. This game has some small potential for an upset and 6.5 for a 2nd time starting QB is....interesting but I think the LA defense is what carries this one to a victory.
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Det at AZ: This is one of those games that scares me. Every week there is a game with a 6-9 point spread where there is an upset. Outside of the Bengals and Texans, this is that game on my radar this week. But i am already over betting on DET for the year. AZ has started on fire. Is this DET defense that gave up 21 to Trubitsky, IN THE 4TH QUARTER, gonna slow down the red hot cards? I'm not stepping on that train. This game looks to be my stay away game. Lets see how these teams develop before we put too much stock in them.
This is a potentially great game for props though!
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TB at Den: Still not sure what's going on with either of these two teams. TB looked decent last week, but it was vs CAR... Brady is not yet in rhythm but he's getting decent protection. Denver backdoor covered last week after Lock went down with an injury, being replaced by Jeff Driskle. Jeff had a decent game and screwed all the Steelers spread bettors. I think what's more interesting then a spread in this one would be the Under. With QB changes for Den, Brady not yet in form, and both teams having decent defenses, this game looks primed for some weird 16-10.
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Dal at Sea: The Titans game and these next two were the hardest for me to judge on such little data. I am obviously very high on SEA this year predicting them to win the NFC and have a great shot at a Superbowl this year. I am conversely not that hot on Dallas. I think the whole NFC East is a work in progress. Dallas is full of offense, but until they can have a healthy season with a top 5 defense, I don't think they can go all the way. This years defensive losses are particularly rough and it's only week 2. Both teams have offenses capable of lighting it up at any time so for that reason I think it will be in both teams interest to keep the other offence off the field. This means sustained drives to eat up as much clock as possible. I also think that Dallas will be awfully full of themselves (warranted or not) from last weeks come from behind win. In a game where I am going to contrarily take the under, I must also take all those points.
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Sunday Night Football
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GB at NO: The last game of the day, also very hard one to dissect with little data. It seems as if Rodgers is coming out going for an MVP type season. Brees on the other hand looks...old. My algo has GB +1.5 here and normally I would think Vegas was just shading because NO is a team the public likes to bet on at home. However the public perception is NO lost on primetime as a favorite last week while GB is 2-0 with back to back 40 point offensive performances. And they are still giving GB 3 and in some books 3.5...
This worries me. Vegas is usually more right than wrong and primetime games tend to lean opposite of public perception. I may have to take NO just based on the fact that 70% of the moneyline money is on GB yet they are still a 3 point favorite.
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I am pretty light on wagers this week. I am currently moving and so I have had a little less time to look over the full cards and props. I do like weeks 3-5 as a sweet spot for underdog value as the markets try to find the right prices for each team.
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Singles (9-10, -3.15u)

• LAR +2.5 (2u to win 2u)
• HOU +4.5 (1.1u to win 1u)
• Kareem Hunt 19.5 Rec Yards Over (1.15u to win 1u)
• DAL +5.5 (1.1u to win 1u)

Parlays (0-3, -6.5u)

• Israel Adesanya ML, CLE ml, IND ml, NE ml, BAL ml (9u to win 33.87u)
• Kamara 75 Rush yards and TD (Raiders/NO TNF), Cincy +6.5, Ten ml, IND ml, Dal +5.5, BAL ml (3u to win 97u)

Teasers (1-1, +38.85u)

• CLE -1, ATL +3.5, TB PK and U48.5 (6u to win 15.6u)
• NE Pk, CLE PK, LAR +8.5, NYG +10.5, HOU +10.5, CIN +12.5, BAL +3.5 (4u to win 24u)

BBDLS (0-4, -3.4u)

• I have 10 BBDLS in for a total of 9.2u. They are all 10+ team parlays getting greater than 100-1 odds. If I typed them all up it would double the size of this page. These are all most likely losing tickets but if one hits I will post the screenshot.

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DraftKings $2 Million Pick em National Championship $1Million for First
Week 2 (3-2) Better! Its expected that as I gather more data, these picks should better. Lets keep this train rolling to its resting place for the remainder of the year, :D 5-0 city!
Overall (4-6)
Week 3

• HOU +3.5
• CINCY +5.5
• LAR +1.5
• NYG +3.5
• DAL +4.5

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Thanks for reading and good luck to all! :D