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Using Change% to Quantify Batter Clutchness
(I wrote this about a week ago so check the inline updates for some players) How many times have we heard or thought during a game that X player is a clutch batter? Or, on the contrary, that he tends to choke when needed the most? These comments are most of the time based on narratives we, as observers, create from specific situations that get fixed in our memories and bias our judgment; as our brain needs to organize the information we get through our senses in patterns, we easily label single events as part of a bigger sequence, whether that is true or not, and that’s why, for example, if we saw said batter hitting a walk-off single or got stricken out to end a rally recently, we immediately generalize these high impact situations as trends, when they are not, and these trends fog our perspective. Clutch is a hell of a hard thing to objectively describe or measure and even harder to predict, if possible at all, not that huge and great efforts have not been made to address that. Clutch, LI, WPA/LI, and other stats are part of the toolset that brilliant analysts have devised for it, and they usually do a good job. But, sometimes, those stats might feel hard to grasp, not because they are too abstract or hard to understand but because they typically involve a lot of smaller calculations to obtain a result. In my perennial journey for simplification, I wanted to try a simpler approach to this concept and I decided to focus on one question: What is the ultimate goal for a baseball team? There could be very long answers to this but the short and simple one is “to win”. That’s it.
So, when does a team achieve this?
A team can’t lose when it is tied or ahead of the opponent. Then, one of the most important things a batter can do for his team is, effectively, to tie or to put his team ahead whenever the chance presents itself, in other words, whenever he can change the possible outcome of the game for his team’s benefit. These players are, on those occasions, true Game Changers. Under this premise, I decided to look for those batters that, with any part of their offense game, produced RBIs to tie the game or to put his team ahead this season. I went to Stathead, pulled the data for every player that meet those criteria, and summarize it. In total, 424 batters on any instances of their teams’ games were Game Changers and this is the list, sorted by the most changes: https://preview.redd.it/khxt6dgs85q51.png?width=717&format=png&auto=webp&s=104c04e4d28cf864df19dfd9ffd06add8577b7b7 (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1id1z5EJ8fNEs_Jeu35iUv9FiGeiklLdOXrRioU4SyYU/edit?usp=sharing) Not the guy we were expecting at the top, right? With a .240/.355/.421 line, a .335 wOBA and wRC+ of 115, well, that’s just not a profile of a batter we would want to take the at-bat for our team when we need the necessary turn of events that would change the score on our favor. But in fact, that’s what he has done more than any other player so far. José Abreu, Mike Yastrzemski, Brandon Lowe, and Starling Marte share the second place with 14 game changes each; the first three of them are having a great season offensively while Marte is more in line with Seager but still better overall. Names like Mike Trout, Fernando Tatis Jr., Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, Manny Machado and/or Francisco Lindor are lower in the chart that what the consensus might guess. Could it be that as we are looking at the absolute values we are not taking into account that some batters might have more opportunities to tie or put their team ahead than others, so we are getting a skewed result? I had to swim in the data and pull more than 23,600 Plate Appearance records where the batters had the opportunity to tie or put his team ahead. After sorting and refining, this is the list I got: https://preview.redd.it/qezaoxow95q51.png?width=714&format=png&auto=webp&s=b62df9af59ccd145012ec1e13b3e53df9a3b120f (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1id1z5EJ8fNEs_Jeu35iUv9FiGeiklLdOXrRioU4SyYU/edit?usp=sharing) Batters with more than 35 chances made the cut for the list (average this season is approximately 68 for this data set). There are a few things that are pretty interesting and probably surprising about these figures:
Batters have only been able to change the outcome under these conditions around 1 in 5 chances they’ve had, at best, and 8% of the time on average. That means that this type of game changes are rarer than one could expect.
We have to add “opportunism” as another attribute in the resurgence of Byron Buxton, as he is the batter that has taken more advantage of the opportunities he’s had to change the game.
This is another aspect in which Kris Bryant’s season is truly hideous: in 57 chances he hasn’t been able to make a single change. Not once. Zero.
José Altuve, JD Martínez, Pete Alonso, Eugenio Suárez, Anthony Rizzo, Anthony Rendón and Paul Goldschmidt are all big name players that are under performing here as their Change% is below the league average.
Kyle Seager, Dominic Smith, José Abreu, Mike Yastrzemski, and Cory Seager are still as good, relatively to the rest of the players, when measured by their Change% as by the total Changes they’ve done.
These snippets are fun facts and interesting ideas that will for sure add value to the discussions when analyzing this season, as a deeper dive in the data will always reveal things that we might take for granted, or we might not be acknowledging. But today I want to challenge it in a more empirical manner: I want to try to use this information to predict some type of value. I am in no way saying that this data has prediction capabilities, don’t get me wrong. There are too many variables that I am not taking into account and I’m not controlling for so it would be disingenuous to say otherwise. I just want to make an exercise with what is available and find out practically if there is a bigger opportunity beyond what it looks like. So, as we are approaching the Playoffs, I would like to boldly predict which player(s) will earn any of the MVP awards for the Playoffs. The spots for that stage are not completely filled yet but at the moment of writing this, the AL participants are: Standings updated after games on Sept. 17:
Rays (E1), 36-19, .655
White Sox (C1), 34-20, .630
A’s (W1), 33-20, .623
Twins (C2), 33-22, .600
Yankees (E2), 31-23, .574
Astros (W2), 27-27, .500
Indians (WC1), 30-24, .556
Blue Jays (WC2), 28-26, .519
And for the NL:
Dodgers (W1), 38-16, .704
Cubs (C1), 32-22, .593
Braves (E1), 32-22, .593
Padres (W2), 34-20, .630
Marlins (E2), 28-26, .519
Cardinals (C2), 26-25, .510
Reds (WC1), 28-27, .509
Phillies (WC2), 27-27, .500
I will pick a player from most of these teams (and some ‘outside-looking-in’ contenders), according to their Change%, and those will be the candidates to win the awards.
If Change% let us discover batters that maximize, in some way or other, their approach to chances then said batters will “appear” in the moments that fans and analysts tend to remember the most: those special circumstances when things turned around for better for the player’s team because of him, and that narrative will be important when people cast their vote for the awards; this is especially important for short term scenarios like the playoffs are. That’s what we are betting on here. I hope this is useful for some of you. https://twitter.com/camarcano All other data was taken fromhttps://www.fangraphs.com/,https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/, and/orhttps://www.baseball-reference.com/unless otherwise stated.
After starting the season 4-17 and staring at a nightmarish campaign, the Pirates have righted the ship by winning five of their last seven. While that doesn't sound like much, that seven game stretch represents over 10% of this abbreviated regular season. At 9-19 with a -39 run differential, the Pirates have a better run discrepancy than the -48 Red Sox, who are only two years removed from setting the baseball world on fire and delivering one of the most dominant seasons in MLB history. It's been a weird year. The Good Jacob Stallings has been pretty damn solid ever since he's put on a Buccos uniform. He is hitting .415 in August and is over the .300/.800 marks for the season. Other than the injured Colin Moran, Stallings is the only regular hitting above his weight. When you combine that with his pitch framing, throwing out runners, and back-picking guys at first base, he has produced at an all-star level so far. Say what you want about the Pirates, we have a had a pretty good run at catcher recently after obtaining Russell Martin for cheap, letting him walk in favor of a cheaper Francisco Cervelli, and moving him and his concussion history to allow Stallings a chance at the job. So far, so good. Chad Kuhl had a long journey back from Tommy John surgery, but has slowly been stretched out and has given stability to a rotation that is decimated with injuries. Without Taillon, Musgrove or Archer, Kuhl forced the Pirates hand and has once again entered the big picture when looking at the future rotation. His velocity is almost back to where it was pre-injury, and when right, he has some of the best stuff and strikeout ability of any starter in our organization. Erik Gonzalez sure looks the part. You can understand Huntington's rationale for trading legitimate prospects in Luplow and Moroff to Cleveland for Gonzalez last off-season to provide depth and promote competition at shortstop. For an organization that has lacked elite talent at the SS position for an extended stretch, it is promising to have an intriguing group of options going forward. Gonzalez is big, fast, strong and has a slick glove. He needs to walk more to make his slash line look better, but he has earned a shot at every day work. Of the three shortstop's on the roster, I would rank them : 1) Kevin Newman, 2) Erik Gonzalez, and 3) Cole Tucker. When you factor in O'Neil Cruz, it makes sense for the Pirates to give Tucker outfield work, as being a utility player is his best chance of sticking in the bigs. I could see a scenario where the Pirates go forward with Gonzalez at short and Newman at second, moving Adam Frazier. This would be contingent on Gonzalez continuing to hit. For a team that couldn't get anybody out in 2019, there have been some quiet revelations in the small sample that is 2020. For a team barren of quality LHP, both Sam Howard and Nik Turley have been productive, even with that awful homer call of a Carlos Santana foul ball against Howard. Geoff Hartlieb, J.T. Brubaker, Richard Rodriguez and Cody Ponce have all produced as well. Hat tip to Phillip Evans, who was the best story of the young year before suffering a severe injury after a collision with Polanco. Hopeful for a speedy recovery, there's a place on the 2021 roster for a guy who can play multiple positions and hit. The Bad The Miguel Del Pozo era. RIP. Josh Bell and Gregory Polanco are two of the premier power hitters on our team, and both have an OPS in the .500s, well below career norms. Both of these guys are streaky hitters, and it's important to remember that we would be at the end of April if this was a normal season. Polanco started to show signs of heating up with his Sunday heroics to finish off the Brewers sweep, but Bell has yet to find his timing. It's hard to imagine any version of this team succeeding without these two guys getting hot, but it could change at any time. If there is a positive, the Pirates should get a better deal when looking to lock up Bell, which I think they should make a priority. I'm holding firmly onto my Bell stock. What's Next A quarter of games at Miller Park in Milwaukee, which had been a house of horrors for so many years. You can bet Craig Counsell seeks revenge after the brooms were pulled out on the North Shore last weekend. One element of this shortened season with expanded playoffs is that every divisional game has massive implications in the standings. Despite an abysmal start out of the gates, the Pirates are still playing meaningful ball as the calendar turns to September. Let's Go Bucs.
My letter to Rob Manfred, comment your name and username if you want me to add you to the list
(RT on twitter) https://twitter.com/friedscurve/status/1272964722929930245?s=21 Dear Commissioner Manfred, We are the fans. Baseball has been a part of our life for as long as we can remember. We follow our teams every summer, whether they’re World Series contenders or deep into a rebuild. Our childhood bedrooms were adorned with fat heads, pennants, bobble heads, signed balls, baseball cards and other tributes to the game we love. We hoped this year to watch another 162 games of baseball. For many of us, this could have been THE YEAR! When our team goes all the way and hoists the commissioners trophy in October. Of course the COVID-19 pandemic has changed everything, and we all have to adapt to the new normal, but as other sports have found ways to return, baseball has not. The back and forth between the league and the players has been fruitless, and you, Commissioner Manfred recently said that a season is not certain to happen. If it was just a matter of safety, If the problem was simply that the amount of people necessary to operate the league was too large to ensure the health of the players, coaches and other league employees, that would be understandable. However it’s clear that the delay in returning to action isn’t about safety but about saving money. We are well aware that a season of 80 games or more while paying players prorated salaries would be a financial pain for owners around the league, and we understand that as commissioner, you are expected to answer to the owners. However we hope that you understand, and that the owners understand, that if baseball opted for a shorter season — such as the 50 game schedule that has been reported on — or opts for no season at all. The cost will be far worse. To start with the first complaints that would arise with such a short season: Did the dodgers really trade a top prospect for 50 games of Mookie Betts? Will the Indians be forced to let Francisco Lindor walk for nothing? Or will there be a trade deadline, and when would that be? Will there be a minor league season as well? If not what happens when injuries arise? Will top prospects have their development stunted? Will the minor leaguers get paid? These issues arise in a 50 game schedule because 50 games is roughly 25% of a season. That would be akin to a four game NFL season. Baseball is beautiful because while on any given night, any team can win, the long regular season allows the teams worthy of a shot at the World Series to rise up and take it. After 50 games last season, the Washington Nationals would have missed the playoffs. The long season is what calls for fans to watch night after night, a test of loyalty found nowhere else in sports. But we do it because we love the game. The entire season would have an asterisk next to it forever, any accolades given to players would seem fake, the World Series winner would be questioned. This doesn’t even take into account the players (especially pitchers) who have said that 25% of their salary is not worth the risk of injury, which would only be increased by the lack of a proper spring training before the start of this season. If stars like Max Scherzer don’t play, can we really say the best team won? But even worse would be no season at all. While it’s been widely reported that a handful of owners feel its in their best interest that no baseball be played this year, we hope they haven’t forgotten the 1994 strike. Regardless of whether the players or owners are more to blame for that work stoppage, the brand of Major League Baseball was deeply hurt by it. Imagine what would have happened if the Expos were able to capture their first title? Would there still be a team in Montreal today? Think of the countless fans that left the game for good that summer, angry that they had two months of baseball taken from them. The league was damaged, and it took years before many fans returned. It will be worse this time. Nationals fans are missing Juan Soto, Victor Robles and that great pitching staff. Dodgers fans want to see Mookie play in Los Angeles. South Siders want to see Luis Robert join the ranks of their young stars. Braves fans cant wait to see what Ronald Acuña Jr does next. Fans can’t be taken for granted, and it sure feels like we have been. While many of us will surely return, many of us will move on. There will be basketball watch soon, and the NFL seems on track to start this fall. We will quickly tune out the mess that is baseball when other sports return, maybe we’ll come back in 2021, hopefully we’ll get excited for opening day next April, and move past the fiasco that has costed us a year of our favorite teams. But it’s hard to commit to being there for baseball, when baseball isn’t there for us. The worst part is, it’s not as if the players are being unreasonable. They are simply asking to be paid in proportion to what their team agreed to pay them. They have offered a whole host of concessions such as expanded playoffs, playing well into the winter, and even offering to maximize the number of games played by scheduling regular double headers and almost no off days. Is saving a season, numerous fans and the MLBs reputation (not to mention the upcoming CBA negotiations that will surely get ugly if this season isn’t sorted out) while also being able to add playoff games not worth a one year hit to your bottom line? And you can find creative solutions to recoup some cash: Rent the empty stands as additional ad space or even allow for teams to put a corporate sponsor on their jerseys like the NBA (it would be ugly, but if it mean we play baseball, we don’t care.) You could use partnerships with sport betting services to pad your wallets as well. Heck, if you wanted to get crazy you could announce plans to add two new franchises in the coming years, and use the buy in fees to make up more losses this year, while most league expenses for the new clubs wouldn’t kick in until a few years down the line, when the league is back on stable financial footing. The point is, you have many options other than playing a far too short season, or not playing at all. Commissioner Manfred, we’re sure you want baseball back as much as we do. we’re sure you care about each and every fan. We’re sure you are weighing a lot of options and making a lot of tough choices. But we don’t want you to tell us that, we want you, we need you, to show us that. Because that’s what it’s going to take to save baseball in 2020 and beyond. Sincerely, ...
Warning: I’m going to be committing murder in this essay, as I will be explaining a joke and that inevitably kills them. However, this is for the further advancement of science, so I hope I will be forgiven. If you want to start an argument, whisper, “Broadcast order is best” in a room of veteran anime fans. They’ll know what you mean. The Melancholy of Haruhi Suzumiya. Along with the franchise’s penchant for self-commentary and general disregard for the viewer's comfort, its lack of order is usually taken as evidence that it was done just to mess with our heads. And it was… with neurosurgical precision. Haruhi S1 is the most delightfully clever series I have ever seen, a cleverness that I suspect springs from inspired necessity. Like many adaptations, the staff could only fit so much from the light novel source. While including the “Melancholy” volume was natural, being the introductory segment, it’s worth only six episodes of content. What to do with the other eight broadcast slots? Curiously, rather than utilizing “Sigh” (the next volume), the rest of the episodes are plucked from different volumes then inserted throughout[1] : Broadcast = Chronological 1 = 11 (Adventures of Asahina Mikuru) 2 = 1 (Melancholy 1) 3 = 2 (Melancholy 2) 4 = 7 (Baseball) 5 = 3 (Melancholy 3) 6 = 9 (Island 1) 7 = 8 (Missing computer club prez) 8 = 10 (Island 2) 9 = 14 ("Final" episode) 10 = 4 (Melancholy 4) 11 = 13 (The Legend of the Nagato Heroes) 12 = 12 (School festival, concert) 13 = 5 (Melancholy 5) 14 = 6 (Melancholy 6) This may seem random, but notice that despite all the jumping around, the six Melancholy episodes remain sequential, spaced throughout the season, with an emphasis on the beginning and end as we’d expect from a progressing plot. Furthermore, this unorthodox structure has a purpose, and that it is the “inspired” part of “inspired necessity.” Haruhi is a mystery, a mystery that guides an adapting, self-aware joke. If I had to describe its method it would be to create expectations, know that it’s created those expectations, know that we know that it’s created those expectations, show us that it knows that we know that it knows that it’s created those expectations… and then stay one step ahead to make it all work anyway. Allow me to enthusiastically demonstrate.
Nagato: “Suzumiya Haruhi and I are not ordinary humans.”Kyon: “I kind of knew that already.”Nagato: “That is not what I mean… In more common terminology, I would be classified as an alien.”
It was at this moment Kyon realized his understanding of the situation had gone seriously awry. As did we. This is not a conversation “either” of us thought was possible. But I’m getting ahead of myself. Starting at the beginning is what normally makes sense. The Adventures of Asahina Mikuru is a prank, and a brilliant one at that. You may think I’m referring to its candid introduction of the cast, hiding everything by hiding nothing, all while thumbing its nose at us because we don’t yet know what we’re in for. That’s true and worth a chuckle later on; you might even have an inkling of this yourself as you watch it. If so, all the better, even. Like so many aspects of this show it can stand on its own as a gag, but it’s also the setup for a much bigger question: What is Haruhi trying to do? Sure, it might be funny to to subject us to a few minutes of this farce, but twenty-two minutes and seventeen seconds of it? This is so excessive that it demands an answer… we uncomfortably don’t have. What sort of series does this? What’s worse, everything about the episode is subtly contradictory. The poor cinematography belies an expert recreation of poor cinematography as filmed through a camcorder. We unthinkingly accept the glaring holes as part of its ridiculousness, yet our attention is directed relentlessly to discrepancies big and small as though we ought to be looking for consistent story. Then, oddly, when extremely unusual things do happen sometimes it explains them, sometimes it doesn’t. And what about the people? They’re all poor actors, so are we supposed to be bothered by their failure to live up to their roles or ignore that too? Like Kyon, our longsuffering representative in this misadventure, all we can do is keep trying explanations and hope they stick, unsure if it matters at all. By the time Suzumiya turns to address us at the end, not only has carefully watching not answered anything, it has actually left us less sure what is signal and what is noise. Now having been mildly confused, mistreated, and mocked (you wanna tell me you didn’t catch yourself staring too?) the series begins “in earnest”: a standard case of a jaded, low-energy male protagonist being dragged around by an eccentric, hyperactive female who instigates wacky adventures for her and her merry friends, all the while peppering in obvious self-referential comments that make us smart for noticing them. Now it clicks into place. Haruhi is a comedy, one that is making fun of all the other series in the genre while being a joke itself. The opening movie was just a good, sharp kick in the shin to show off just how funny and different it is. ...except so far it’s not funny like it’s supposed to be. Sure Kyon keeps up his observations of the weirdos around him, observations that are our own but better said, but Suzumiya herself is legitimately awful to people. The light-hearted music plays and it fits all the tropes, but Asahina’s reaction to being groped and publicly humiliated is discomfitingly not that of a comedic side character. And what’s Nagato up to? Rather than being the bookishly shy-but-sweet girl she’s remained sitting in the corner, an unreadable lump with no personality in sight. If possible, everybody is playing their roles even worse than in the movie. Moreover, strange things are afoot at the Circle K. It’s nothing we can take to court, but Suzumiya keeps getting her way in the oddest of situations. Random lots gives her the coveted back left corner, with Kyon in easy grabbing distance. Stereotypically the literature club is low on members, and the sole remaining occupant allows her to use the space despite being a patent hermit. She wants a timid, cutesy mascot, and not only does she locate a perfect specimen, Asahina even chooses to stay despite the mistreatment. Are these just contrivances of the genre or are we supposed to question what they mean (...and did she just read our thoughts)? Which brings us at last back to Nagato’s apartment. When she tells Kyon that she’s an alien we’ve reached a critical mass of uncertainty. It’s not just that we don’t know whether she is telling the truth. That’s not the real suspense that has been building, although we’ve been given conflicting information on this too[2] . It’s that we don’t know whether we should be wondering it. Is it even possible? Aliens belong in certain shows, delusional high school girls in others. But what type are we in? And Haruhi stares back at us through Nagato’s indecipherable face, playing it straight. It anticipated out first (mis)understanding (“That is not what I mean”) and it knows we want the answer as to what it’s up to. But as the episode ends, it’s not giving any more hints.
4 = 7 (Baseball) 5 = 3 (Melancholy 3) Now time for baseball! This is… not what was expected. Although not entirely unexpected either, because if its earlier actions weren’t enough to convince us we can be pretty sure now Haruhi must be going for random nonsequitur. To not explain itself before moving on seems like just the sort of trick it would pull. It even keeps stringing us along with more strange coincidences, more indecipherable references, more cases of Nagato being weird-but-not-indisputably-alien-weird (which is a great visual gag, I might add)… but something is different.
Kyon, our faithful narrator, has changed his mind; he knows something we don’t. Or does he? Nagato immediately gives him a reason why she won’t do it, so maybe she’s just a dedicated roleplayer and he’s decided to humor her after their meeting. He knew she’d turn him down. ...maybe? We still can’t identify what a “tell” is in this show; how can we when it’s sending signals that are random, discomforting, and funny too? And it just keeps getting weirder, with references to the end of the world piling up and odd flashbacks that we cannot verify. Then the killing blow:
With the ball flying far out over the field, we now have confirmation: there is something supernatural going on in this series. The rest of it could be explained away, but not this. But here’s the kicker:
Haruhi knows it. It knew precisely up to the point that we would be doubtful and what kind of information we’d accept to make our decision. We didn’t figure it out; we were told. Haruhi played us, making us think our resolution with Nagato was on hold, only to pitch it to us here. Speaking of which…. We’re now returned to our regularly scheduled programming. The atmosphere, which before was merely suggestive, has become kaleidoscopic, the subtle hints exploding into a welter of visuals that let us know we’re not in Kansas anymore. But that’s the funny thing: we don’t need it. We’re already convinced. This is almost like Haruhi is rubbing it in our face that it was here the whole time and we didn’t bother to notice until now. It was also the moment when I fell in love with the series:
I had to pause the video and laugh until my jaw hurt. I know it’s quixotic to hope to convey comedy, but this was truly one of the most hilarious moments I have ever experienced in anime. In anything. Like all the gags in this show, it’s worth at least a chuckle on its own, a small denigration of Suzumiya’s nature that we can smugly agree with. But that’s the lesser portion. It’s the moment when this entire build up reflects back on itself holographically. A character, who is being told the truth but doesn’t accept it, is disparaging another who would do the same, while functioning as our stand-in, the audience who was skeptical about what Haruhi was telling us, in both cases because we “knew” what world we were in, caught in the act of confidently agreeing with his/our assessment of the foolishness of people who don’t listen to what they’re told. It is in that sudden snag, that snap of dissociation that proves not only that Kyon is an unreliable narrator, but that we are as well, that the waveform collapses in a moment of perfect comedic timing.
6 = 9 (Island 1) 7 = 8 (Missing computer club prez) 8 = 10 (Island 2) With this "reveal" that we’re actually in a supernatural random-discomforting-comedy the first arc ends and the second begins. Yet curiously little was resolved. Nagato has demonstrated herself in the way we accept but the other two club members have been less forthcoming with evidence; it’s all and special circumstances for using powers. Are they really what they say they are? This series could really go either way, but they’re probably both special. Probably. But the central issue is Suzumiya. Despite all the warnings and hints, we don’t actually know how to spot her powers at work. Apparently she’s omnipotent, but we have only the characters’ word to take for that. That’s fishy. It’s one thing to accept Nagato can bewitch sports equipment, it’s another that Suzumiya can destroy the universe because of a bad mood. And we have no way to prove that all these coincidences are actually Suzumiya’s fault, especially since things don’t always go her way. We need more data, and on cue is our mystery scenario:
Haruhi isn’t going to insult our intelligence by trying to hide it a second time. It comes clean up front in an overstated self-referential dialogue: the only way these sorts of things happen is if they’re rigged. Come on, we can’t miss it; this is the confirmation we wanted, right? Even though it’s not quite what Suzumiya dreamed of, it’s close enough to her fantasy that it’s clear she’s the culprit. Besides, who else could summon a typhoon from clear skies? The murder, however, was not expected. Sure there was mention of the apocalypse, but this has all been too flippant to take seriously; random and discomforting aren’t the same as dark. Haruhi wouldn’t kill somebody… would it? It’s the same conundrum as before with Nagato. We’re faced with a “confession” of sorts, with evidence leaning both ways, and as we wrack our brains we can’t quite convince ourselves after all its antics that Haruhi isn’t that sort of show. Maybe it’s just pretending to be dark. Maybe it’s not. Maybe Suzumiya will bring Keiichi back to life or rewrite time or… something. Who knows what she, or this show, can do, now that we’ve accepted her power. We’ll just have to find out next episode. … And now time for giant digital cave crickets! Not only is it the same problem as in episode three, it’s the same low-blow trick to yank us away from the action just at the height of the tension. But we know this song and dance (or, rather, maybe we do in retrospect; I didn’t know it at the time). The last “random” episode was informational, meaning this one likely is as well. So, what does this episode have to say? Well, to put it briefly, it’s a mystery that is actually an engineered scenario. At first we assume it’s Suzumiya’s fault, because everything is, but as she points out: if she does everything then what’s the purpose of the rest of the cast? The real culprit is somebody else, somebody completely obvious in her driving of the events and in the middle of all the action, someone who had even taken the opportunity to deflect a bored god’s enthusiasm with the scent of the unknown. Just because it slightly involved Suzumiya’s powers, that wasn’t the real story (she was hellbent on pursuing her own wrong theory anyway; what an idiot). I’m pretty sure I don’t have to spell out the obvious, since reading this far without having seen the series would be daft. Haruhi is taunting us. Just because the venue changed, the mystery never stopped; the indications are everywhere in this series, and it is even so kind as to repeatedly correct our key misunderstanding. Yet despite its valiant efforts, we’re more liable to be distracted by the crazy supernatural events, and so entirely reinforced in our faith that the murder scenario is supernatural too. No wonder Koizumi didn’t worry about Kyon catching his drift. The island isn’t done with us, though. Not by a long shot. Having given us innumerable clues (again) Haruhi lets us try to put it together (again) while we nonetheless remain remarkably confident (again). Why do we fall for it (again)? Because, as always, we think we have the right answer. Or, rather, the right framework. The real secret here is Suzumiya’s powers, not these pedestrian goings on. We’ll spare a thought for the murderer, of course, but having established the ultimate cause in our minds we are not overly concerned about the details; gods, if they want to kill somebody, will find a way. What’s preoccupying us is how to make all these events make sense in our theory (and patronizing Suzumiya’s ignorance… again). Again, everybody here knows the resolution, but I just wanted to remind how utterly delightful our own self-misleading can be. The only way we were fooled was if we obediently learned the wrong lesson from the first arc. Before we discounted signs of the supernatural because we didn’t think they fit; now that we know they fit, that’s all we could see. In fact, even when they didn’t fit we made them; did Suzumiya’s face really look like she was guilty? No, she was horrified and distraught, and told us outright that she didn’t actually think anything bad would happen. Haruhi would never kill somebody out of boredom. In spite of this, we chose her as the culprit because the evidence to the contrary was just too mundane to make note of in this supernatural random-discomforting-meta-comedy (and we don’t like her very much either). Meanwhile, it was Suzumiya who assiduously paid attention to the facts in front of her, and who was able to realize she was in a three level mystery: that there was an “apparent” truth (normal island / murder), a “false” truth that acts as a red herring (supernatural island / accidental door murder), and a real truth hiding at the bottom (it was all a play with a purpose, just like we were told at the start). We’re the ones who can’t seem to solve the mysteries staring us in the face. Of course, it’d be too embarrassing to admit that, so we’ll retreat to reminding ourselves how annoyingly self-absorbed she still is, and that we weren’t that clueless (be honest, you said the same thing). Haruhi even lets us keep our dignity by pretending we were helpful. snerk At this point I’m reminded of a short quip from a previous episode: if Haruhi can only throw straight, then eventually even a child would catch on. We knew Haruhi was trying to get a ball by us but accepted the soft-pitched, and painfully obvious, metacommentary anyway. That it had the confidence to even signal (loudly and repeatedly) before actually throwing a curveball means it thought we never had any hope of hitting it in the first place. We can gripe that it wasn’t clear, but what’s the point of a mystery if it tells you what the clues mean? Oh, and since it knows we weren’t really paying attention, Haruhi will even give us one last hint: what about that unidentified shadow that led them toward the cave? We thought the mystery was over, but maybe that’s because we never grasped what it was about.
“The SOS Brigade keeps getting caught up in various incidents… Even so, we couldn’t possibly run into situations like that every single day.”
This is it, the final episode… of sorts. It begins before the OP with a tranquil atmosphere, looking forward to the coming winter while happily reminiscing about the past. It’s all so homey. Time for us to kick back, relax, and enjoy one last healing round with our favorite characters... Yeah, right. There is no way that this is all there is to the episode. “Unusually cold day”? What’s the setup this time? Is Suzumiya going to accidentally cause winter to come early? Or is it Asahina’s turn to do something sneaky and leave Kyon forlorn? As the OP ends our eyes are peeled for what’s going to jump out next. The camera thoughtfully obliges us: a wide-angle that keeps the whole room in view, missing nothing, followed by God’s-eye perspectives, letting us linger over every detail (taking bets you paused it at least once, probably on the card game). It drags on in eerie inaction until Kyon startles and looks up (does the sun mean something?!?), as though he had just remembered that an episode was supposed to happen. The regular music comfortingly begins to play and he narrates for us as he always has:
“It sure is nice and quiet when Haruhi isn’t around. But I guess it’s a little too quiet, huh? Now that I think about it, it’s already been half a year since I met everyone. We’ve sure been through a lot. Situations where Haruhi was the instigator and a few where she wasn’t. Well, most of them started when we were kicking back and relaxing in the clubroom like so only to be interrupted by her barging in…”SLAM
Remember those times where we weren’t sure if something was going on? Where we were misled by our own expectations, hung up on whether something supernatural was happening (or not), and so overlooked important details? Well, Haruhi Farm remembers; they were great. The series might act like nothing is up, but suspiciously on cue Suzumiya bursts in the door. Something is always up, no matter what the opening told us, and after missing twice we’re intent on not striking out with a third failure. Besides, with more than half the series complete we’re beginning to notice the cross-references and double-meanings. We’re getting it now. And this is how the episode mocks us relentlessly for twenty minutes, because nothing happens. Of course, this doesn’t stop us from trying to find it happening. Kyon pauses in his walk down the hill and we hold our breath… but it’s only to idly wonder what Suzumiya is doing. Koizumi’s tea has gotten cold, nothing more. But, wait, calling Asahina a mascot character is self-aware! It’s just enough to keep us going. Just enough to convince us to sit and listen to four minutes and twenty two seconds of inane radio chatter hoping to find relevance in the words. It even does it to us a second time, and we’re prepared to listen all over again… before Tsuruya interrupts. Then it checks if we’ll do it a third time. Yep, we will. And we think we’re rewarded for our persistence: Nagato finally stands up, validating our efforts… only for the screen to go black. We were waiting for nothing. But really, we should have known this. Did we really think we’d see Asahina in the buff? No? How about again? And again? It doesn’t even seem to matter whether we know we’re being tricked, we’ll still fall for it at least three times (first arc, second arc, and now here). And to top it off, not only can Haruhi get us to do whatever it wants, we’ll even think ourselves clever when we’re forced to notice it. In the last few minutes, though, something does happen: Suzumiya likes Kyon. We probably already guessed this given the previous indications, or at least the tropes; the manic pixie dream girl is legally required to like the male protagonist, and even if Suzumiya is more “manic” than “dream girl,” it’s still obvious that’s her role. We won’t begrudge the scene though; it’s nice to have solid confirmation of anything in this series, after all. But don’t hope for too much, because Suzumiya will be Suzumiya. Like the last football pulled out from in front of us as we go to kick, she prances away with the umbrella and ruins any romantic tension that might have existed. After the rest of this episode, the rest of this series, did we really expect anything else? Strike three.
10 = 4 (Melancholy 4) 11 = 13 (The Legend of the Nagato Heroes) 12 = 12 (School festival, concert) Before continuing, a brief recap is in order (everybody likes recap episodes, right?). Bemused by the first episode, we were left off balance and so open to questioning what this series was about. The first few episodes carefully maintained this uncertainty, counting on then cashing in our wariness. The island arc demonstrated that it didn’t matter if we were aware of it, we could still miss the obvious because we thought we already knew the answer. Having been fooled repeatedly, we accepted what the final episode “told” us without question: this series is absurd, Haruhi sticking its tongue out at us until the last second.
As Ryoko speaks this line at the beginning of Melancholy 4, it seems a bit… unnecessary. Yes, of course, we already know this. We just saw it last episode; like any good tsundere, Suzumiya is humorously enamored to Kyon but almost pathologically unable to express her feelings. Watching her deny it while occasionally being caught in the act is part of the entertainment. But Haruhi likes commenting on itself, and we like noticing it, so why not?[3] At this point in the essay, I hope the reader has some inkling that we’re being set up. Have been set up all along. We’ve been allowed to think we know Suzumiya: she’s a thoughtless, obnoxious character who, despite being putatively intelligent, is comically delusional. Her feelings for Kyon are just part of this silly contrivance. Similarly, we think we know Haruhi. Like its titular character, it has been, and will be, one big (absurdist supernatural random-discomforting-meta) joke, and as Suzumiya walks on stage in her now-familiar bunny suit we can only groan at what is coming. “What foolishness has she cooked up this time,” we murmur amongst ourselves. Meanwhile she works steadily, solemnly, ignoring us and making sure everything is ready, before beginning...
It is the greatest, most heartfelt “prank” of the series: Suzumiya was a serious character all along. All it took was a disagreeable nature and funny appearances for us to not notice. We truly are bad at this. But now, like the beginning movie whose effect could not be faked without being followed through, there is no way to counterfeit the gorgeous animation or mistake the passion and personality of her song. Knowing so well how to toy with us, Haruhi knows how to prove itself too. The audience is stunned into silence, mouths hanging open in disbelief at having their expectations defied so spectacularly. But what I find truly arresting, touching even, about this scene is how it encapsulates Suzumiya at her best, a reflection of her life hidden in plain sight. From the first moment she was on stage, relentlessly expressing herself at maximum volume even though people didn’t understand. It was always a failure of having the right context. People already “knew” what her behaviors meant, and interpreted her accordingly (sound familiar?). So even as she explains herself (“I run through [life] with a thirsting heart”), her frustrated regrets (“I’m sorry I… couldn’t even share your pain / You wouldn’t let me”) and her fondest dream-memory (“You were there, I was there, and everyone else had vanished”) the audience is none the wiser for it. Except one. Kyon, our stand-in, at last has the wits to stare dumbfounded at this remarkable girl he had missed all along. When she is done, Suzumiya looks up as though waking from a trance, surprised to see everybody cheering. She was so absorbed by her own intensity she wasn’t even watching them. Now, even though they don’t understand, they do appreciate. She’s not used to being appreciated. An exhausted, joyous smile spreads across her face and she turns to the camera to let us know it. It’s the most tender expression she’s had all series. True she’s often grinning, but to see her like this it makes you realize that she’s not as often happy. This has been a window into her, a character that, like so many things, we didn’t pay attention to until we could no longer ignore.
Suzumiya has fantastic back muscles. It isn’t apparent until you get a clear look at them, covered as they normally are by a school outfit. She has a good body, fit and taught like a strung bow, poised for action. She isn’t ashamed of it. But like so many things about her, it’s not quite the body people are looking for. There are clues scattered throughout the series which only now become obvious. No matter the physical challenge, Suzumiya was there to meet it. Mentally it was the same. School isn’t an obstacle, she’s unusually perceptive, and her apparently-spontaneous schemes are actually quite well-planned and effective. If this were not enough, she possesses nearly unlimited energy, enough to run everybody else ragged, and a strong will to direct and utilize these impressive gifts. All of this was taken to be part of her caricature (what kind of show are we in again?) or covered by our own griping about her personality (because this was all about us), but the evidence was always there: Suzumiya is an exceptional human being in nearly every regard. This is why she’s on the lookout for the unusual. She’s on a mission. Normal life and normal people leave her unfulfilled so she dreams of something more; that she jettisoned the supernatural club as fast as anything else proves it’s not conspiracies that she believes in (she’s too smart for that, ironically), it’s a more interesting world. People think she’s behind when in truth she’s lapped them. And she never turned down a boyfriend. Suzumiya, against her fervent objections, is stuck being a healthy young female. She’s a bit of a romantic and is desperate to find that one person who will make her feel loved for being the vivacious, but tempestuous, girl that she is. She wants somebody to share her vision with more than she wants aliens, and keeps trying despite the unrelenting failures. Now she’s fallen for Kyon, the guy she dearly wishes to rely on, and doesn’t know what to do when he doesn’t reciprocate (“I’m sorry I… couldn’t even share your pain / You wouldn’t let me”). She’s scared he’ll let her down too[4] , afraid that he’ll never take her seriously, and angry when he expresses the self-satisfied mediocrity that causes her to disdain everybody else. Disdain. This has been her greatest failing. Suzumiya is not unaware of how to be considerate, nor is she so lacking in self control that she cannot be civil when she wishes. It's that she chooses not to be, contemptuous of empty social norms, impatient with complacency, and scornful of how everybody has misunderstood her. In time she has come to value them not at all, becoming a disruptive and uncouth caricature of herself in the process. Suzumiya is genuinely eccentric, yes, but her own act has run away with her and although everything about her behavior radiates a denigration of humanity, Suzumiya is still begging for their appreciation and acceptance. So as she stands up there after the concert, and the crowd is finally giving her the adulation she has secretly craved... Suzumiya apologizes. She shouldn't be up there, this was somebody else's concert, but in her rationalized selfishness she was willing to push them out of the way for the chance to prove herself anyway [5]. To see her unaware victims standing in the doorway later, come to thank and praise her, her eyes go wide and then she looks away in shame at how she has acted. As long as she felt painfully undervalued she could feel justified in returning the favor, but now the truth is forced: it's not just people's incomprehension that has caused her to be disliked. It has been her own unkindness as well, and maybe she should think on that. Then the last stinging line:
“We’re planning to put on one last concert. You should come and watch with your… (the girl turns questioningly to Kyon, then back to the camera pityingly)... friend.”
That the crowd still found her acceptable after all her apologies made her so happy she could cry. That the guy next to her, the one she just sang her heart out for, seems at best to tolerate her, means it yet went to waste. Suzumiya really is lonely and lovesick, and though not an easy person to be around her feelings are genuine. All of her is, to a fault. And in the background the series winks to let us know that we know it now too. This is Suzumiya’s struggle of the final few episodes, then. Throughout the series she has frantically tried to get Kyon’s attention in her own stubborn, eccentric way, because that’s how she needs to be appreciated if it is to mean anything. Yet it doesn’t seem to be working; he doesn’t even seem aware, let alone interested. Her last hope is failing her. It’s why she even overcame her trepidation to talk to him earnestly at the railroad tracks. Haruhi isn’t using a faux-existential ramble to prove she’s special; we already know that. Nor is it an excuse for bad behavior. It is her beseeching Kyon to understand, that she knows what she’s doing and why, and an invitation to join her that she would extend to nobody else. The world was never threatened by her boredom, only by the ache that she would be alone in it. The resolution, though, is happy, and the last reason I value the broadcast order as it is. While the future may foretell that nothing happens, it slips in the side door anyway. We were fooled by not being fooled. It ends up all along, the core of this story really was a romantic high school comedy, and at the conclusion we get our confession (of sorts) and kiss. Shame on us for doubting. And lest we think Haruhi would impishly steal that back to spite us, that moment of annoyed disbelief as Kyon falls out of bed and we fear it was all a dream, the last scene before the wrap-up is Suzumiya with a ponytail. She won’t face the camera; it’s still hard for her to compromise even a little like this, after all. But... it really does look good on her. Conclusion in comments below
Hey guys! My name is Magical, PBP caster for C9's academy team. I do other casting stuff across the League of Legends scene, but that's not important. Instead, what I am going to do is try to solve the problem with 100T's main roster. Call me a traitor to C9, but just hold on to your pants and/or skirts. I have my reasons that might become obvious as I go through my thoughts. 100T is a brand that I have a lot of respect for. Of course, I am biased and love my C9 brand and the sponsorships they have gotten (shoutout to Puma and BMW), but when 100T joined I loved the baseball style jerserys they first had, I like the clothing line they made and they started their LCS journey on fire by being able to go to Worlds in their inaugural season. But now we see they are struggling badly. Spring was incredibly terrible and Summer is looking just as bad. I thought they made some good calls by bringing in Amazing to add to Bang and Ssumday. But the move to have Soligo be their starting midlaner was premature. Soligo just isn't ready for it at this time and needs to be in academy so he can continue to learn/grow. This is where the next problem of 100T roster moves comes in with the recent move to have FakeGod start over Ssumday so they could have Ryu play over Soligo. Due to import rules, 100T had to make a choice between Ssumday/FakeGod and Bang/Prismal. I think personally I would have gone for Prismal over Bang and even go with Stunt over Aphromoo, but that's neither here nor there since I don't think it would be enough for them to fix their innate problems within the team anyways. Instead, I want to talk about the drastic changes that 100T needs to explore if they want a chance at making playoffs. If they end this weekend 0-6, they would have to go full C9 in order to even get to playoffs which I don't think will happen without a major change to roster or staff. Of course, I don't want to advocate for someone losing their job, but 100T need to get a midlaner that will not take up an import slot. That's the tricky part, finding a midlaner that could be picked up and fix the problems of 100T who also is not an import is difficult to find. We can look at academy and there is (to me) only one obvious choice. GoldenGlue is someone that has had a lot of experience on stage as well as has been growing well in the C9 brand. As of late, he has been on a tear in academy looking like the best midlaner bar none. The problem with picking him up would be that he is under the C9 banner and if C9 is smart, they wouldn't let him go for cheap (hell not even for overpriced). 100T would have to probably rip off both arms before C9 would give up GG as he has fit well with the team and the org. Plus, I don't know how receptive he would be to the idea either as I think he would love to aim to compete for the starting mid spot on the main C9 roster. That is not something I am privy to so I can't speak for him (and for any thinking about what if C9 sold the whole academy team, I'm sure that would be much better than the current 100T team as well, but with how much 100T spent on some of their current players that is HIGHLY doubtful). If not GG, then we have to keep digging. Maybe insanity on Team Liquid Academy's roster could be a good option. He and ablazeolive would be the next two I would look at in academy for players to pick, but sadly they have a bit too maybe inconsistencies for my taste to be confident in fixing 100T immediately. Maybe good options for 2020, but that's not what I am after fixing yet. The other option that I had considered was KatEvolved. If you don't know him, look up his streams. Once a Katarina OTP, now arguably the best midlaner in NA solo queue. I casted a few games of his a year or so back when he was just starting to branch out from Kat and into a more competitive scene. His growth since then has been NUTS. The problem with someone like KatEvolved is a similar case to insanity and ablazeolive unfortunately. It would be a huge gamble due to how inexperienced he would be with this level of competitive play. It is one thing to play from the comfort of your home, and a different beast to that of a stage with a live audience (yes, he plays for Radiance and has done some live events with the team such as PvP.com, but that's still nothing compared to a Riot studio). Just ask someone like Dopa. Hell, I have had those nerves myself from moving from casting from my bedroom to studios. It is really hard and not everyone can make that transition so 100T would be betting a lot on that. But with that all said, he is still looking like the most likely bet. He is with Radiance, so would have to buy out that contract, but that's probably a cheaper option than buying an academy player. There is an option I had been considering when I went to type all of this out and that is possibly getting someone from LLA or CBLoL. In the past, LAN had not be considered an import slot for players if they were chosen. But starting in 2018 (at least if I recall correctly) LAN and LAS became import slots with the changing of the wording to the rule set to read as "United States and Canada" residents only. Sad that wasn't extended to Mexico and Central America. I do understand that going into 2019 that the LLA merger happened which moved the teams to Chile and thus removing the LAN region that could be considered North American. Honestly, I want to argue that players in LLA should be considered options for LCS without taking up an import slot since there is a good amount of talent now playing in the LLA that would still be considered a part of the NA continent. A midlaner like Seiya would have been a viable option for 100T due to him being from Mexico. I'd like to argue in favor of players like Emp or Plugo, but both players are from Chile, so they'd probably need to be considered imports in order to keep the ruling simpler. Now I will move on to my final option that 100T can do and it is extreme (well, not Echo Fox yeeting Fenix and Altec extreme, but I'm not that cruel). It is the trade option. They have to do something and if they can't get a player for a reasonable or even inflated price (GoldenGlue, insanity, ablazeolive, or KatEvolved) then they need to trade an import to open up for a new import. Ssumday or Bang would have to be traded in order for this to work which would mean a team being willing to take them. Honestly, I would trade Ssumday not because he is bad, in fact quite the opposite. He is one of the best top laners. A team that is struggling might be willing to trade for him if they don't already have too many imports. Looking to see a team in need in NA aaaaaaand...nothing. Not only would no team really be looking to trade out their top laner from someone like Ssumday, but those that might (Echo Fox or OpTic) already have the max import slots. Only team that doesn't that is struggling at the moment is FlyQuest, but I think they are happy with V1per. Well fine, what about Bang? You got OpTic or FlyQuest (again) that could. And I doubt either team want to trade them out. The final nail in the coffin of the trade idea within NA is even this, what would it do to fix the problems within 100T? You swap out for a new player? Midseason? Only really for Jungle or Support do those sort of changes have meaningful impact. That's where we should look. As stated before, I don't think Amazing is the problem with the team. I think a lot of it rests on the community scapegoat of Aphromoo. Not because he is bad or washed up. He just doesn't fit with 100T. He worked with CLG cuz he seemed closer with the team. Now it is more professional for him and that kind of grind can mess with performance. So I rambled for a bit on different ideas that could be explored, but I still haven't figured out how to fix 100T. I do want to say this here, Soligo is NOT the problem of 100T. Ssumday is not. Amazing is not. Bang is not. Aphromoo is not. Soligo is the main target in this not because he is bad but because 100T put him in when he wasn't prepared. He was perfect on 100TA because he was getting to learn a lot more about a team house environment as well as some exposure to stage, but not enough to be thrown to the wolves like this. I have to solutions to what I think will fix 100T immediately. The majority of this has been on replacing Soligo, so obviously that is my first pitch. Listing the prospects I think are ready: GoldenGlue, insanity, ablazeolive, KatEvolved (to a degree with KE, still a massive gamble). The other is to hire a new coach. I'm not saying fire Prolly. I'm saying they need a Weldon. Someone that is great to be brought on temporarily as a sports psychologist. Prolly should remain as the main coach. But they need a staffer that can get the players to finally become a team and less of bunch of people that just happen to wear the same jersey. Thank you for reading to my TED Talk EDIT: Fenix/Yusui. Fenix will become a resident in terms of the Riot Policy in Week 5. He is a solid player and could fit in with 100T, but he would be far more difficult to wrestle away than an academy player. Yusui could be that option. However I may like his odd champion pool and how he likes to play bruisers mid (this was before bruisers mid was a thing btw), I haven't been blown away by Yusui. He either pops off or ints. Too all over the place and more risky than GG, insanity, or ablazeolive. I'd rank him equally with KatEvolved. For those wondering why I chose KE. I claimed him to be a gamble in the post but I'll defend it here. His time with RAD has been teaching him a lot and he is a prospect not on an academy team. This means easier to get than a player on academy. Also when I say not ready, I mean Soligo hasn't been in the academy scene long as well as having mediocre results/performance in academy compared with his competition. He only just did scouting grounds in 2018. So he could one day be a POB nice he isn't at the moment nor is he close to that yet. / TL;DR: 100T need to put Soligo in academy and pick up one of these: GoldenGlue (C9A), insanity (TLA), ablazeolive (TSMA), or KatEvolved (RAD). They also need a sports psychologist for building the team back up
Polarizing (v): Kyler Murray. People either love him or hate him. I don’t think I have ever seen so much attention given to every millimeter of someone’s height. This is the case I always make when I decide to measure my little buddy but then the argument starts on “where it starts” but that’s not here nor there. He officially measured in at 5’10” 1/8” but if you paid attention to this place before the combine, you would be convinced that he would need a step stool to climb each step in a staircase. He was also much heavier than people thought but there is skepticism that he went on a few dinner dates with Kelvin Benjamin to pack on some pounds before the combine.
Height is not the only knock on this guy. He definitely didn’t do himself any favors when he was flipping back and forth with his MLB offer and his NFL status. When he finally decided on football, he decided not to participate at the combine despite attending for his measurable. Typically, this is not a red flag because many players choose not to participate (Sam Darnold last year) but I know it rubbed people the wrong way.
What some people may not know about Murray is he has a history of dominance as a football player. In high school, not only did he win 3 straight state championships in Texas where football is taken more seriously than Tim Tebow’s baseball career, but he went undefeated; 42-0 missing just one game. He was a 5-star recruit coming out of high school and the best dual-threat QB in the nation. So, he’s not just some stellar player that strictly uses his athleticism to win; the guy knows how to throw the ball.
It’s harder to see here than when the spa worker had to locate Robert Kraft’s bologna pony from all the smokescreens that Arizona has been tossing, but is he worth their first overall pick?
Strengths
I’m going to be completely honest here. Before I started any film study on Kyler Murray, I was not the biggest fan/sold on him. Then I started to feel a bit guilty because I never gave him a chance, kind of like how Frank Gore noped right out of Philly. After about 15 hours of film study, I feel like my narrative has changed. The kid is a human highlight reel and makes jaw-dropping plays every single game. Just to keep this breakdown within Reddit’s character limit, I will focus on his last two games. I want to do this because it was his most important games as a college player (Big 12 Championship & College Playoffs).
The thing that separates Kyler Murray and the rest of the other quarterbacks in this draft class is easily his athleticism. Not only does he look like the fastest player on the field at times, but his elusiveness in the pocket and threat of the run is something you can’t see in the stat line.
Athleticism
Everyone knows by now that Murray is fast, but how fast is he? This play shows why Kyler is a special player. Not only is he able to elude a pocket that’s breaking down, but he also beats the spy for a big first down. Imagine your only job is to ignore everything and contain a QB and still failing; a bigger disappointment than the AAF league.
Okay, maybe you’re not impressed that he was able to beat a spy. How about the time he was able to get the edge against a corner and then juked out another player? He has a jab step that some running backs would dream to have. Looking at you China food Lacy/2 yards per carry Richardson.
Despite what you may think, Kyler is not always a run first QB. He constantly keeps his eyes down the field when a play is breaking down. This may be one of my favorite throws by Murray. The play is breaking down, he steps up in the pocket and keeps his eyes down the field and delivers a perfect pass to his receiver who is torching two defenders. The more I watch the play, the more impressed I get. There aren’t many people on this planet that can deliver that ball the way he did. Seriously though, this kid is running up the pocket, throwing it without setting his feet, and launching it 50 yards in the air perfectly in stride to his receiver. If that doesn’t get you as excited as John Elway seeing a 6’6” quarterback prospect, I don’t know what to tell you.
Due to Murray’s ability to use his legs, the playbook opens up to get more creative and I’m not talking about just Wildcat stuff. There are so many different possibilities that an offensive coach can utilize so I don’t blame Kliff’s fascination. With college concepts working more and more every year in the NFL, it’s no coincidence that Arizona hired Kliff. I bet their dozen fans are pumped.
One thing that surprised me about Murray was his pocket awareness. As a dual-threat QB, it’s easy to hone in on one of your skill assets, but when everything comes together, beautiful things begin to happen. He just makes it look effortless when eluding defenders in the pocket. Just the way he navigates through traffic while looking for his open receivers is not something you see too often from younger guys.
Arm Talent
Enough about Murray’s feet. Rex Ryan has left the chat. What begins to separate Kyler from other mobile quarterbacks in the past is his excellent passing ability. He is a true dual-threat QB because along with his legs, he has great arm strength and accuracy & touch. I mean he just hurls this thing from the 35 to the other 10 in the air with ease. After watching all of his games and in-depth film, I can confidently say that he can make all the throws. One of the hardest passes is to the sideline and Murray can put it on a line right where he needs to be. I can’t vouch how great he looks in shorts, but I know his arm isn’t on Josh Allen’s level but it is plenty good enough to make NFL GM’s notice.
Accuracy is what got Baker a lot of praise when he was coming out of college and I can say that Murray isn’t too bad either. What stands out is Murray’s ability to throw his receiver’s open. At first, this play looks like an inaccurate pass, but if you look at it from another angle you can see that he is leading his receiver to the open area of the field. If you pair him up with some smart receivers that have the ability to run option routes as many Y receivers do on many teams, Murray will thrive.
Just like a majority of college quarterbacks coming out, Murray has a small issue with staring at his number one read. In Lincoln Riley’s offense, they scheme a lot of players wide open so it is not usually a big issue but I was surprised to see that Murray was pretty adept at going through reads. He will need to continue to develop on this but he is further ahead than many prospects coming out from an “easy” offense.
Intangibles
I said last year that one of Baker’s stronger attribute was his ability to improve when a play is breaking down or thrive under chaotic situations and once again, his buddy does too. It almost looks like an illusion to see him flick his wrist and spin the ball perfectly to where it needs to be. Peterman is on suicide watch seeing a QB effortlessly do this.
You typically don’t see mobile quarterbacks be able to drop back and get into a rhythm in the pocket but don’t worry, Kyler’s got you bby. He is able to time his drop back and throw an easy rhythm pass to his receiver. Although Oklahoma likes to run a lot of different schemes, Murray is still able to drop back and throw rhythm passes as well.
The beauty of Murray’s game isn’t that he’s just an off-script player. He also gets into his 3-step drops, scans his options, and delivers a ball in rhythm. It’s rare to find players that thrive both as a rhythm passer and off script through chaos. He has great touch on his balls ͡° ͜ʖ ͡° , good arm strength, and understands how to read some coverages.
Weaknesses
I know I just gushed about Kyler the way Bill Bellichick does about left-footed punters but he’s not perfect. What weaknesses does he have besides the fact that Tinder girls won’t swipe right after they see his height?
Overreliance
He is normally one of the most athletic players on the field so it’s no surprise that he tries to make a home run play on every down but sometimes, it doesn’t work out. It reminds me of the same mentality A.D. had when he tried to break every single run for a touchdown but sometimes, it ended up hurting him more than helping. He will be on a more level playing field in the NFL so he won’t have as big as an advantage as he has been used to; ask Dorial Green-Beckham how that worked out.
Size
Although his height is a concern, his weight may arguably present an even bigger issue. It’s hard to imagine someone at his size being durable enough to be able to withstand all the beatings the NFL has to throw at him. To be fair, he had some fair share of bighits. Somewhere out there, Gregg William’s nipples just got erect at the thought of injuring someone as small as Kyler.
Like I mentioned earlier, I am more concerned about his weight than his height. Although he takes the elevator to hit a baseball on a tee, he did not get many balls batted. I think I only count about 5 or 6 times throughout all my hours of film where it occurred. You can see that he is used to throwing at his size by the trajectory of some of his passes. He floats it enough so it can’t get batted despite looking up to Gary Coleman.
Talented Team
Another knock on him is how he has been surrounded by talent. While this may not be on the top of the list of concerns with him since Baker is producing at the NFL when he had similar red flags, it still merits a mention. There are numerous times where Murray had endless time in the pocket. Even during a blitz his offensive line gave him enough time for Josh Rosen to get sacked 4 times. He also had Marquise “Hollywood” Brown who may go in the first round of the Draft. It can’t be that hard to throw to someone who roasts defenders to the point that Andy Reid can’t decipher if he should feast or confuse them for Bob Sutton’s corners.
Shotgun
One last thing I wanted to mention is that he primarily took almost all of his snaps from the shotgun. This is not unusual in college, especially at Oklahoma. I didn’t even want to bring this point up because he looked very fluid at his Pro Day when he was under center and Baker Mayfield proved that you can be successful going from Riley’s offense to under center more often but I just thought that it is on some people’s radar.
Player Comparison
A lot of people have compared Murray to Wilson, and I feel like that’s a very fair comparison. They are both shorter QBs who are exciting that can win games both inside the pocket and their feet. I think Murray is more explosive than Russ but Russ is a better playmaker down the stretch. Murray also has that rare athleticism that Mike Vick had entering the league except Murray knows how to slide thanks to baseball.
Now I know that it’s lazy to compare Murray to Wilson and Vick but I’m trying to draw parallels with their skillset. The way the Russ can extend plays with his legs while keeping his eyes down the field is something Murray does very well. The way Vick can whip the ball down the field with a small flick of the wrist and his explosiveness is also something Kyler can bring to the table. I’m not saying that Murray is as good as Wilson or as good of an athlete as Vick was, but when I was watching all the film, I kept thinking how his skillset reminded me of them. I mean look how crazy this is; it reminds me of that iconic Randall Cunningham play.
Recap
Murray is the most polarizing player in this draft for a reason. With all of the skillsets he presents along with his shortcomings, it’s easy to see why everyone is all over the place with him. He is a true dual-threat quarterback that would be a dream to work with for any offensive minded coach. Now is he a better prospect than Dwayne Haskins? Well, they fill two completely different roles so depending on who you need commanding your offense, that will ultimately decide who will fit into the team. It is bizarre to see how Kyler Murray's projections look compared to Dan Marino's coming out of college.
Strengths
Elite athleticism
Very explosive and elusive
Keeps eyes down the field and great when plays breaks down and has to improv
Fantastic mix of arm strength and accuracy
Shows great signs of being able to go through reads
Weaknesses
Height and Weight bring questions for durability
Tries to do too much at times
Relies on athleticism to get him out of trouble
Played with great players around him which may have inflated his actual ability
The women in my family experience their "time of the month" somewhat differently.
When I was a boy, there was a long period of time where I had no idea what my mother meant by, “that time of the month.” Every month, like a record on repeat, she would tell my father: “Oh, my time of the month is coming up. Do you know if we have everything I need?” To which he would reply, “Why do I have to be in charge of your monthly feminisms?” Then they would always go into the bedroom and discuss it further, giving my twin sister, Theresa, and I wary looks. My parents loved one another dearly, there’s never been a doubt in my mind, but my dad did enjoy teasing—sometimes at his own expense. This was evidenced by the many mornings during those “times of the month” when Theresa and I would find him sleeping on our living room couch, all six feet two inches of him, huddled like a homeless man in a cocoon of blankets. This continued consistently until around eighth grade, when my mother began pulling Theresa away privately. I would hear their mutterings occasionally, with my ears pricked and head cocked, leaning just outside whatever room they happened to be inhabiting. It was never very informative. Mostly my mother just prodded. “Has it happened yet?” she would ask—sometimes a little too excitedly, it seemed. “Mom…I don’t want to talk about my period,” Theresa would answer, usually after an annoyed, why-must-you-do-this-to-me sigh. After listening in on these conversations several times, I—rather embarrassed and ashamed—decided it would be best not to listen in any longer. I had my own pubescent issues to worry about. So, life went on. I tried (and failed) to get my first girlfriend. Apparently, it wasn’t attractive or cool to burp, “will you go out with me?” I wasn’t too shook up about it though, mostly I just didn’t want to be the twin without a date at our school’s fall dance. Theresa offered to go with me as it neared, but I vehemently shot her down—no way was I going to be that kid. Theresa had countless suitors anyway. She was smart, popular, athletic, and, I guess, pretty; she got our dad’s height and our mother’s regal looks, most notably the piercing, ice-blue eyes; I got my father’s honker of a nose and our mother’s awkwardly giant feet and hands. Basically, I won the genetic lottery. Despite her flurry of requests, Theresa decided on Tommy, our mutual best friend. I didn’t complain, although I did think it was a little weird at the time—was Tommy hanging out with me to get to her? Or were we truly friends? I never found out. The week of the dance, Theresa started to get stomach cramps and became oddly confrontational. One morning—that Wednesday—she nearly tore off my face when I took the syrup from her without asking. “I wasn’t done using that, Alan!” She growled—literally, like some kind of beast—and snagged the syrup back. “Well sorry, geeze,” I said, wincing away a little. “You were just staring at your waffles, and they’re already covered in syrup anyway.” “Well…maybe I wanted more,” she said, and proceeded to drown her waffles. I shrugged it off, thinking she must be super hungry. But, later that afternoon, my mother had to come pick us up early from school. Theresa had had her first period during gym class, accidentally staining her shorts. Two of the girls in our grade, Anne Torrence and Lisa Wilkes, saw the stain and made it a huge deal. They teased Theresa incessantly in the gym’s bathroom until she wouldn’t leave the stall, calling her names like, “Blood Butt” and “Bloody Theresa.” The vice principal, Ms. Worthington, came and did her best to try and quell the situation, but by that point all the boys were crowded in the hallway and all the girls were grouped within the bathroom—either joining in on the teasing with Anne and Lisa, or quietly failing to stop it. I was furious and simultaneously embarrassed. I knew it was my sister who was the joke of the day—probably the rest of the year—but was too young and stupid to do anything other than huddle by myself sulkily on the bleachers. “Hey, Alan!” Richard Stark, a popular baseball player, called, smirking. “Heard Theresa had her period on herself, then tried to eat it! How’d she get so gross?” “I don’t know,” I said. “Maybe from looking at your face.” Richard scoffed. “I bet you eat her periods too. You’re probably one big, period eating family.” He crossed his arms, standing over where I was sitting, waiting for an answer. Chants emanated from the bathroom: “Blood butt! Blood butt! Blood butt!” Intermixed with Ms. Worthington’s pleas for order, “Stop it! All of you stop it! You’re being awful!” Theresa wailed. It was driving me insane, that was my sister goddammit. Next thing I know, my fist is in Richard’s stomach and I’m being pummeled by three of his friends. “Smear his gross face into the ground,” Richard panted. “He probably likes getting touched by a bunch of boys.” One of the boys pulled my ears and another shoved me to the ground. The third briskly walked away and I thought, well at least he’s not a slave. Then Richard grabbed my testicles and squeezed hard. I howled and clutched them. The pain in my lower stomach was deep, hot and took my breath away. Our gym teacher, Mr. Weppit, saw the altercation and blew his whistle, causing Richard and his two friends to scatter. The rest of the clustered boys silenced immediately, making the chants and Theresa’s sobs from the bathroom even clearer. I still remember Mr. Weppit’s face: pale and unsure, with eyes too large for his tiny glasses. So, there I was, curled up on the floor, cradling my balls, my sister crying in the bathroom. At some point during my scuffle with Richard, Ms. Worthington had taken relative control of the bathroom. The girls were streaming out in a bustling crowd, the two perpetrators of the whole thing—Anne Torrence and Lisa Wilkes—hiding within, eventually getting away free. At least for a short while. My mother picked us up early that day from Ms. Worthington’s office. She tried talking to us about what happened on the way home, but Theresa wouldn’t talk, so neither would I. I didn’t feel like it was my place, besides, I was mad I was only one who got detention for fighting. Apparently Mr. Weppit hadn’t seen the faces of the boys who started it. Which was a bold faced lie, he just didn’t want his star baseball player suspended for the playoffs. We stayed home the rest of that week. I got a mild talking to from my dad about fighting and “being the bigger man,” but I could tell he was mad that I was getting punished for something that obviously wasn’t my fault, and it was more my mom putting him up to it than anything else. For that evening and the next two days, Theresa almost never left her room. I heard her quietly sobbing more than once from the hallway, but the closest I got to talking to her was raising my hand to knock. I didn’t know how to bring up what happened in an appropriate way. Mom was the only person she talked to during those two days, usually late at night, after bringing up her dinner. I tried listening in on what they were discussing, but the only thing I ever picked up was: “It’s a perfectly normal thing, it just happens a little differently in our family, honey.” I found out what that meant in the worst way possible, albeit a little later. Tommy called early Friday evening and rescinded his invitation to the dance, saying Anne Torrence needed a date and that he didn’t feel comfortable enough going with Theresa on Saturday after what had happened earlier in the week. He apologized profusely—according to my father, at least, who somehow managed to stay in control throughout the entire phone conversation—and said he would make it up to her later, after everything had calmed down at school. None of us thought Theresa would want to attend anyway. I didn’t care either, it’s not like I had a date or anything. But, come 4:00 Saturday afternoon, there she was, strutting down the stairs in a turquoise sequin dress. So, as it turned out, I ended up being that guy. Mom and dad took our pictures: in front of the fireplace, outside underneath the grapefruit tree, and in the car ready to go to the dance. The way Theresa handled herself then, cool and confident, ready to show the other girls she wouldn’t back down to a little teasing, is one of my fondest memories of her. Mom was the one who wanted to drive us to the gymnasium. My father shrugged and said, “Alright you got it.” Then he opened the fridge in our garage, snagged a Coors, and went inside. Once we were at school, before letting us out of her CRV, my mom asked to speak to Theresa alone. A little confused, but understanding that I probably would never understand (boy was that the truth), I obliged and hopped out, kicking a rock around the parking lot for about ten minutes, hands in my pockets. Tommy saw me and waved cheerily, his arm around Anne’s slim, bony shoulders. I gave him the middle finger. He frowned and kept walking. The dance itself was awesome at first. Sodas and snacks were endless, the music was great, and Theresa and enjoyed ourselves. We danced together, ignoring the snickers from some of our fellow students, and she even laughed a couple times. At 8:30, things changed. The lights dimmed, and a slow song started playing off the speakers. At the beginning of the evening, Theresa and I agreed we would not do any slow dances. So, she went to the bathroom and I took a seat in one of the many folding chairs lining the wall, observing the young couples together on the floor. Everything was fine, but apparently not to Lisa and Anne. They didn’t like that my sister wasn’t a bawling mess—for whatever goddamn reason. The two of them creeped into the girls bathroom to find Theresa—who had been gone for three songs at that point—to continue what they had started earlier in the week. It was the last time anyone saw them alive. A shrill scream emanated from the bathroom, dying in a wet, gurgling muffle. Mr. Weppit shut off the music and everyone froze, giving each other wide, bewildered stares. Ms. Worthington’s voice pierced the silence. “Is it those girls again?! If it is, they’ll be in detention the rest of the year!” She stormed to the bathroom where the scream had died. She sprinted back in almost a minute later, her normally straight, blonde hair all frizzled and unkempt. Her glasses sat crooked on her nose, her cheeks were flushed, and her skin was too pale. Something red had splattered and stained her beige high-heels. Ms. Worthington stood in the gymnasium’s doorway for a moment, all of us staring, then collapsed onto her stomach. A deep gash split open the length of her back, showing the white, gleaming spinal column. “Oh my God!” Mr. Wippet yelled, and ran to our freshly dead principal. He knelt over her with trembling hands, unsure of whether to touch the body or not. A snarling cry rang out from the hallway where the bathrooms were located. Terrified, I burst to my feet, thinking: Is Theresa alright? Holy shit, she has to be alright! Nothing human sounds like that. Then a jaguar burst through the gym’s double doors. It had leg—Anne’s leg, I could tell from the bedazzled shoe—dangling from its jaws. Blood stained its muzzle and dripped in slow globs to the floor. It stalked towards Mr. Wippet, claws clicking off the hardwood, muscles bulging and flexing in its back. Mr. Wippet started to crawl away, but by that point it was too late. The jaguar dropped Anne’s leg and exploded forward, jumping atop our soon-to-be-dead gym teacher’s chest and ripping out his throat. It roared triumphantly. At this point, I realized people were screaming. I was screaming. Where the fuck had a jaguar come from? We lived in Central Florida, not fucking Brazil. With our chaperones disposed, the attendees of the dance began streaming out of the gym in droves. Although we had no other option, it did not end well for several people. Richard Stark and the two boys that had beat me up were mauled to death. One after another, the jungle cat leapt at them, snarling and slashing its claws. I remember, with slight satisfaction, Richard having a nose one second, then a gaping hole the other; one of his eyes dangled from its stalk, swinging and making bloody imprints on his cheek. Tommy ran to me. “Alan! Alan, what the hell is going on? Is that a freaking jaguar?” I turned to him, still awed at the moment. The basketball court had become a bath of blood, the bathers being bodies. “I-I…yeah.” It was all I could say. Tommy gaped at me, eyes bulging. “We gotta get out, bro. We have to figure—” The jaguar had gotten to us. Not that it was hard, we were the only two left. “Oh my God! Oh my God! Forget you, Alan.” Tommy blubbered, and tried to sprint past the cat to the door. With a swift swipe, the jaguar ripped open Tommy’s stomach, spilling his guts to the floor in glistening, red ribbons. He screamed, stumbled, and fell to his knees, trying to shove his intestines back into his gaping stomach. “OH MY GOD! IT’S MY GUT’S ALAN! MYY GUTTSSS!!” Then the cat jumped on him and crushed his skull between its jaws as if it was crunching an M&M; bits of brain, blood and what looked like raspberry jelly drained out. From his eyes up, Tommy was a cracked egg, his mouth frozen in a wide O. I collapsed onto the chair behind me. I had barely moved at all since the commotion had started, not that it had been long. It had been maybe ten minutes since Ms. Worthington entered the gym. The jaguar glared at me, growled, and crept in my direction. I was muttering a prayer, wondering how bad my death would hurt, when I recognized its eyes. I knew those eyes. I saw them every day. “Th-Theresa…?” I gasped. “Is that you?” The cat blinked her ice-blue eyes, opened her mouth in a grin, and gave me a substantial view of her massive, blood-coated incisors as if she was showing off. Hey! Look what I can do! Then she turned, flicking her tail playfully, and bounded from the gym, leaving me by myself in piss-drenched pants. I walked out the gym in a daze. Everyone lucky enough to escape was in hysterics, huddled together and crying. The police arrived not long after and took statements from those left, scratching their heads in bafflement at the corroborating stories of a big-cat massacre. My mother picked me up, as cheery as ever. She didn’t ask about the police, she didn’t ask about the blood on my shirt, she only asked one thing: “Where’s Theresa?” “I don’t know.” She nodded, understanding, and took me home. The next morning was the strangest in my life. I woke up first, tried to eat a bowl of Reese’s Pieces, failed, and sat on the couch in the living room, staring into our front yard. My father was the next one up. He joined me on the couch, a steaming cup of coffee in his hand. “Suppose I should tell you Theresa’s home. Seems she made it back alright.” He nodded upstairs. “Sleepin’ it off right now I think.” I turned to him, wide-eyed. “Dad, what the fuck?” He smiled wanly. “Yeah…so…you might have some questions.” “Some?!” “The women on your mother’s side experience their periods a little differently than most. When your mom turned into the Bengal for the first time, I nearly shit my pants, lemme tell you.” He casually sipped his coffee. “What? H-How?” I asked, voice trembling. He rubbed his chin and licked his lips, considering. Then he leaned close, eyes narrowed, and whispered: “You ever heard of the term, skin-walker, Alan?” Now, as a 34 year old man with a daughter of my own, my family’s “gift” scares me more than ever. Katrina is at the age where it could happen any day, and how am I supposed to breach that subject? My wife, Natalie, laughs whenever I bring it up. She says, “Oh, Alan, stop making a mound out of a mole-hill. It’s a big deal in the life of every young woman. If she has any questions, Katrina can just talk to me! Can you imagine how weird she would feel if you tried to even mention it?” I smile and nod, smile and nod, understanding she’s half-right. But I can’t stop remembering Theresa’s icy-blue stare and blood-stained muzzle—it wakes me up at night in a cold sweat. Natalie doesn’t know what I know, hopefully she never will. The only thing I can do is cross my fingers.
1919 r/baseball Power Rankings -- Preseason / Week 1: Welcome Back Olde Fans and New! Surprises Are Ahead Lest Ye Prepar For Early Season Volatility
Welcome to the 1919 baseball Power Ranking season! We are celebrating our SEVENTH consecutive year of making everybody as angry as possible.
Seven years ago, naaahhman created this project and for the last six I've held the line against the gamblers seeking to steal these rankings. Alongside a diligent team, past and present, there's no way anyone could ever fix the World Series...or understand our method. Coincidentally, we are the longest running baseball project. If this is your first ballroom dance, we employ 30 voters (internet? accounts) taken from each fandom / team subreddit. No one person has more influence than another -- especially Shoeless Joe and John Cusack -- and the fact that I'm a Giants fan has no influence over the final rankings. You will normally see this feature published on Monday between Noon and 2 PM Pacific--so, we'll meet again next Monday, April 8th. Every voter has their own style / system and the only voting instructions are these: "To an extent determined individually, you must take into account how strong a team is right now and likely to be going forward. You must, to some degree, give weight to the events and games of the previous week." However, given the lack of data, voters were asked to treat this as a Preseason Vote unless they personally found compelling reasons to alter their pre-Opening Day notions of each team. Thank you to all voters who have left this project -- your work has been incredibly appreciated. Those who have moved on will be acknowledged in a special way. And if I have my way, we'll be forcibly introducing y'all to the newer voters on the team. TRANSPARENCY: this link will show you who voted each team where and has added neat statistics! If something is a little messed up, just chalk it up to general rustiness but feel free to pester me let me know. Total Votes: 29 of 30. So close. The delta change somewhat irrelevantly refers to the last Power Ranking of the 2018 season for funsies.
#
Team
Δ
Comment
Record
1
Dodgers
+6
3 -1
2
Phillies
+15
The 2019 Phillies lineup has transformed into a powerhouse; four of the top 5 spots have been reinvigorated with new talent, headlined by Phillies new savior Bryce Harper, replacing with 6-8 with the productive players of the past, including Franco who had two HRs and knocking in 7 of the 23 runs vs the Braves. The pressure will be on the pitching staff this year; if Velasquez and Eflin could be serviceable back-end SPs, the bullpen remains healthy and the new infield defense isn't as bad as last year, the team might be the team to beat in an already tough NL East.
3 - 0
3
Red Sox
-2
The reigning champions are still at the top of my rankings because of how well they are coached, the strength of this team's defense, starting pitching, and offense. Although this was an offseason marked with multiple subtractions (Kimbrel, Joe Kelly, Ian Kinsler, Drew Pomeranz, and a Steven Wright suspension), and because of those sunbtractions, there are lots of question marks surrounding this bullpen, this is still the team to beat in the American League, National League, NPB, NJPW, Indigo Plateau, you name it, Sox is tops.
1 - 3
4
Astros
-2
Michael Brantley has settled in nicely to his new home. Excited to have him on the team this year! We opened the season 1-3, so naturally, the season is over and Luhnow should sell everyone and everything. Including the god awful excuse for a chicken waffle cone they sell behind the first base dugout at MMP. We visit the Rangers this week, then finally have our home opener against the Athletics.
1 - 3
5
Yankees
-2
Severino being lost to mystery shoulder injury puts quite the damper on the projections for the season, but still, the Yankees look to be a force to be reckoned with this season... which we proved beyond the shadow of a doubt by losing the first series of the season to the Orioles. Real talk, though, people like Happ in the lineup plus the lack of a frontline ace and the amazing bullpen is going to make for a lot of tense comeback wins this season, and I'm pretty excited.
*1 -2 *
6
Brewers
+3
Little concern going into the season with 2/3 of the key bullpen pieces in various states of injured. So far, Yelich and Cain have shown that winning 1 run games is definitely sustainable
3 -1
7
Cubs
-2
Baseball is back! I'm excited to do my fourth year of power rankings. While nothing will top the rush of my first season as the Cubs ranker, I'm anxiously awaiting the results of the 2019 season. The Cubs got off to a rough start. The bats were on fire, but the bullpen was disastrous and the starting pitching showed some weakness. However, 3 games is almost stastically meaningless. Reading into the standings at all right now would be laughable, so I barely considered opening weekend results in my rankings.
1 -2
8
Nationals
+7
With the Nats losing 2 of 3 against the Mets, there will be plenty of panic in DC. It's completely unwarranted because one loss was to deGrom. If Scherzer was able to beat deGrom, there would be a lot of chest-thumping going on in the nation's capital. NOTE: My rankings are based on "what have you done" vs "what do I think you will do"
1 -2
9
Indians
-3
The Tribe rolls into 2019 with the best rotation in baseball and only one real competitor in the Twins. A division title seems likely, but will questions marks in the outfield and the bullpen be their Achilles heel?
1 -2
10
Cardinals
+1
cards probably should have finished sunday 2-2 but bad opening series are SOP for STL and that's conveniently ignoring that the brew crew is a good team that's probably still getting better.
1 -3
11
Rays
-1
The Rays enter 2019 with high hopes, but will the baseball gods' light shine upon them? The new compliments to Kiermaier have come out of the gate strong, and there is a glut of infield talent that runs deep into the farm. It's fun to note that the worst pitching performance thus far was the reigning Cy Young winner, and the bullpen has yet to allow a run. The temperature in the water is feeling just right to go full flap ahead. First series highlights include Yonny Chirinos going a strong 7 innings, Austin Meadows showing some muscle with 2HR, and Choi Boi antics in the field. Let's go Rays!
3 -1
12
Mets
+7
The Mets' offseason (the first under Brodie Van Wagenen) was ... a mixed-bag. Robinson Canó's contract seems to be a likely albatross, though he is looking OK for now. Edwin Díaz hopefully will be able to do well. While Kelenic was hyped, he was still an unproven prospect—plus, we got rid of Jay Bruce and Anthony Swarzak (sorry, Jay and Anthony, if you're reading). I don't understand the J. D. Davis trade at all—he is a fine organizational guy, but I don't see why we traded for him; hopefully he'll prove me wrong. Oh, and Bryce Harper is the most overrated player in baseball.
2 -1
13
Athletics
-9
After going across the globe just to lose twice to the Mariners in a quasi-opening matchup, the A's opened the season at home against the Angels. Even though Trout did Trout things, we took two of three from them. Our starters have 24 straight scoreless innings, which is flabbergasting because we have a rotting pile of garbage as our current rotation. Don't even bother looking them up, I'm too embarrased. Needless to say, if Fiers and Estrada have a good April and May they'll be around, but we're just trying to escape. The bats are as alive as ever, Khris Davis is going to hit a billion home runs and we play the Red Sox this week at home.
3 - 3
14
Braves
-8
Braves were absolutely brutalized by the Phillies. No ifs, ands, or buts about it. Fingers crossed this isn't a sign of something.
0 -3
15
Rockies
-3
Colorado's outlook for 2019 is more or less the exact same as it was for 2018. The rotation is great and the lineup is good enough, but there's not much depth and the team still has glaring holes. We're far from a playoff lock, but barring some serious injuries I fully expect to be in the mix come late September. Tl;dr fuck the Dodgers
2 -2
16
Mariners
-3
I had no idea what to expect coming into this season, but this certantly wasn't it. Mariners offense seems to be almost unstoppable. They've gone into the 9th with a lead or tied every game so far. The thing holding them back is easily the bullpen, although we'll see what Felix offers us tonight. Sign Kimbrel.
5 -1
17
Padres
+9
Honestly wow. Here I was thinking that this would be another year of purgatory before the ball started rolling, but rockstar GM A.J. Prellar kicked us off early. Of course everyone is estatic that we locked up Manny for a minimum of five years, but we also got to see Tatis and Paddack on opening weekend, which is a sign from the organization that we aren't waiting around. Everything is pointing to the rebuild being over, and our climb to relevance just beginning. That being said, with the youth of the team needing to develop, and the lack of starting pitching depth, it would be hard for me to predict playoffs this year. I think we're in the 77-82 win range, which would still be a big improvement. We started off the seaon by taking 3/4 against the Giants, couldn't have asked for a better start.
3 -1
18
Twins
+2
An encouraging Opening Weekend, going 2-1 against the Indians while being two wild pitches and a timely hit away from a sweep. With a solid rotation, a competent bullpen, impressive defense, and an explosive offense (when not facing top-10 pitchers), they look ready to challenge the Indians and turn the AL Central into a real horserace. Bright spots include Berrios pitching a gem, Buxton looking strong at the plate (4-for-10 with 3 doubles!), and our new additions already contributing.
2 - 1
19
Angels
-1
If you ask what the strength of this Angels team is, I think the offense would be the answer by default, and only because of one guy. Mike Trout projects to account for more than a third of their position player value. Outside of him, it's difficult to find notable sources of contribution. Ohtani, Skaggs, and Upton - probably in that order - are interesting enough players, but betting on any of their health right now with basically one-and-a-half of them gone is not particularly prudent. It's a story that has become the norm for the better part of a decade for this team with the only changes being the cast.
1 - 3
20
Reds
+4
This is technically my preseason blurb, so I'll table any Derek Dietrich overreactions that I have (and I have plenty.) Maybe it was because I had to write 100 words on the team at the end of every week, but I was a little more optimistic after the Reds' 67-win 2018 than most. Sure, they won fewer games than the year before, but several players took clear steps in the right direction. And they followed that up with a tremendous offseason. After completely revamping their coaching staff, the Reds filled their biggest need by acquiring 3 capable starting pitchers without giving up any of their top 6 prospects, while also cutting ties with their two biggest negative contributors from the past couple seasons. I still can't believe they managed to get rid of Homer. All in all, the NL Central is going to be a bloodbath, but the Reds have what it takes to keep it interesting for a little while.
1 - 1
21
Pirates
-5
Pitching, pitching, pitching. The Pirates' 2019 season will go as far as the men on the mound can take them. In a tight NL Central race, the Bucs are projected by Fangraphs to have the best rotation and bullpen in the division. The question will be whether the Pirates can score any runs. The best hitter of the 2018 campaign, Gregory Polanco, is still recovering from shoulder surgery. Starling Marte and orey Dickerson are good, but each is over 30 and getting older. The Pirates will need big seasons from guys like Adam Frazier, Josh Bell and Jung-ho Kang or there will be a lot of frustraitng, low scoring losses.
1 - 1
22
Blue Jays
0
The Blue Jays Starting Pitchers opened the season going 24 innings without giving up a run. The best since the '94 Barves. Sure, it was against the Tigers, and sure, they still split the series. But promising appearances from Trent Thornton and the first ever appearance by a player born in the 21st century, Elvis Luciano, prove that there are plenty of reasons to watch this team. And that's without a certain "injured" consenus #1 prospect.
2 - 2
23
D-Backs
-9
The D-backs were deservingly punished by the baseball gods in their opening series at the Dodgers. The offense, led by Christin Walker, looks better thn advertised, but the pitching has been a dumpster fire inside of a burning building on the sun
1 - 3
24
Rangers
-1
D.R.E.A.M. Dingers Rule Everything Around Me.
2 - 1
25
Giants
-4
Well you can't say that the team doesn't look different in the Farhan Zaidi era. The unofficial official rebuild begins this year, not with a bang, but with a whimper, as we have the likes of Connor Joe, Michael Reed, and Yangervis Solarte in the everyday lineup. Who the hell are Connor Joe and Michael Reed? Who the hell cares? Last year we had delusions of grandeur of competing, this year we have delusions of grandeur of being able to out-tank the Orioles and Tigers for that sweet sweet #1 overall pick in 2020. If the 2019 Giants win more than 65 games, I'll be shocked.
1 - 3
26
Royals
+3
Holy Aesop, Kyle Zimmer exists!!! All sarcasm aside, it was great to see him finally make his long awaited major league debut and to notch his first strikeout. Hopefully, this is the first of many, and Zimmer can become a key member of the Royals bullpen for years to come.
2 - 1
27
Black Sox
0
If the White Sox are going to float this sinking ship, it needs to start, like, right now. Giolito and Moncada looking like world beaters VERY early is a start
1 - 2
28
Tigers
-3
One weekend in and we've already had a big scare: Miguel got hit by a pitch on his hand. It appears things went alright (he DH'd and hit two balls to the warning track the next day), but if he goes down again for a long period of time, the Tigers will be challenging the Orioles for the worst record in the Bigs. This will certainly be a trying type of year, with plenty of spots to be had for players that would like to step up. Next week: 3 at NYY, 3 vs. KCR.
2 - 2
29
Marlins
-1
Were in year 2 of Jeters rebuild, so the Fish are gonna lose around 100 games. Pitching will likely be stronger this year given the raw talent on the rotation (Urena, Richards, Lopez, Alcantara and Smith) and depth in the minors. The potential to have a top 10 rotation in the league within the next couple years is a very real possibility. Counterpoint: the offense will likely remain inconsistent until more talent comes up from the minors. TLDR: marlins will struggle to not lose 100 games and will start building on a very solid foundation of young players. 2021 WS champs you heard it here first!
2 - 2
30
Orioles
0
This is my first time doing this and my rankings will change throughout, one thing I can guarantee is my favorite team the Orioles will probably stay at the bottom. That makes it a tad easier lol.
Warning: I’m going to be committing murder in this essay, as I will be explaining a joke and that inevitably kills them. However, this is for the further advancement of science, so I hope I will be forgiven. If you want to start an argument, whisper, “Broadcast order is best” in a room of veteran anime fans. They’ll know what you mean. The Melancholy of Haruhi Suzumiya. Along with the franchise’s penchant for self-commentary and general disregard for the viewer's comfort, its lack of order is usually taken as evidence that it was done just to mess with our heads. And it was… with neurosurgical precision. Haruhi S1 is the most delightfully clever series I have ever seen, a cleverness that I suspect springs from inspired necessity. Like many adaptations, the staff could only fit so much from the light novel source. While including the “Melancholy” volume was natural, being the introductory segment, it’s worth only six episodes of content. What to do with the other eight broadcast slots? Curiously, rather than utilizing “Sigh” (the next volume), the rest of the episodes are plucked from different volumes then inserted throughout[1] : Broadcast = Chronological 1 = 11 (Adventures of Asahina Mikuru) 2 = 1 (Melancholy 1) 3 = 2 (Melancholy 2) 4 = 7 (Baseball) 5 = 3 (Melancholy 3) 6 = 9 (Island 1) 7 = 8 (Missing computer club prez) 8 = 10 (Island 2) 9 = 14 ("Final" episode) 10 = 4 (Melancholy 4) 11 = 13 (The Legend of the Nagato Heroes) 12 = 12 (School festival, concert) 13 = 5 (Melancholy 5) 14 = 6 (Melancholy 6) This may seem random, but notice that despite all the jumping around, the six Melancholy episodes remain sequential, spaced throughout the season, with an emphasis on the beginning and end as we’d expect from a progressing plot. Furthermore, this unorthodox structure has a purpose, and that it is the “inspired” part of “inspired necessity.” Haruhi is a mystery, a mystery that guides an adapting, self-aware joke. If I had to describe its method it would be to create expectations, know that it’s created those expectations, know that we know that it’s created those expectations, show us that it knows that we know that it knows that it’s created those expectations… and then stay one step ahead to make it all work anyway. Allow me to enthusiastically demonstrate.
Nagato: “Suzumiya Haruhi and I are not ordinary humans.”Kyon: “I kind of knew that already.”Nagato: “That is not what I mean… In more common terminology, I would be classified as an alien.”
It was at this moment Kyon realized his understanding of the situation had gone seriously awry. As did we. This is not a conversation “either” of us thought was possible. But I’m getting ahead of myself. Starting at the beginning is what normally makes sense. The Adventures of Asahina Mikuru is a prank, and a brilliant one at that. You may think I’m referring to its candid introduction of the cast, hiding everything by hiding nothing, all while thumbing its nose at us because we don’t yet know what we’re in for. That’s true and worth a chuckle later on; you might even have an inkling of this yourself as you watch it. If so, all the better, even. Like so many aspects of this show it can stand on its own as a gag, but it’s also the setup for a much bigger question: What is Haruhi trying to do? Sure, it might be funny to to subject us to a few minutes of this farce, but twenty-two minutes and seventeen seconds of it? This is so excessive that it demands an answer… we uncomfortably don’t have. What sort of series does this? What’s worse, everything about the episode is subtly contradictory. The poor cinematography belies an expert recreation of poor cinematography as filmed through a camcorder. We unthinkingly accept the glaring holes as part of its ridiculousness, yet our attention is directed relentlessly to discrepancies big and small as though we ought to be looking for consistent story. Then, oddly, when extremely unusual things do happen sometimes it explains them, sometimes it doesn’t. And what about the people? They’re all poor actors, so are we supposed to be bothered by their failure to live up to their roles or ignore that too? Like Kyon, our longsuffering representative in this misadventure, all we can do is keep trying explanations and hope they stick, unsure if it matters at all. By the time Suzumiya turns to address us at the end, not only has carefully watching not answered anything, it has actually left us less sure what is signal and what is noise. Now having been mildly confused, mistreated, and mocked (you wanna tell me you didn’t catch yourself staring too?) the series begins “in earnest”: a standard case of a jaded, low-energy male protagonist being dragged around by an eccentric, hyperactive female who instigates wacky adventures for her and her merry friends, all the while peppering in obvious self-referential comments that make us smart for noticing them. Now it clicks into place. Haruhi is a comedy, one that is making fun of all the other series in the genre while being a joke itself. The opening movie was just a good, sharp kick in the shin to show off just how funny and different it is. ...except so far it’s not funny like it’s supposed to be. Sure Kyon keeps up his observations of the weirdos around him, observations that are our own but better said, but Suzumiya herself is legitimately awful to people. The light-hearted music plays and it fits all the tropes, but Asahina’s reaction to being groped and publicly humiliated is discomfitingly not that of a comedic side character. And what’s Nagato up to? Rather than being the bookishly shy-but-sweet girl she’s remained sitting in the corner, an unreadable lump with no personality in sight. If possible, everybody is playing their roles even worse than in the movie. Moreover, strange things are afoot at the Circle K. It’s nothing we can take to court, but Suzumiya keeps getting her way in the oddest of situations. Random lots gives her the coveted back left corner, with Kyon in easy grabbing distance. Stereotypically the literature club is low on members, and the sole remaining occupant allows her to use the space despite being a patent hermit. She wants a timid, cutesy mascot, and not only does she locate a perfect specimen, Asahina even chooses to stay despite the mistreatment. Are these just contrivances of the genre or are we supposed to question what they mean (...and did she just read our thoughts)? Which brings us at last back to Nagato’s apartment. When she tells Kyon that she’s an alien we’ve reached a critical mass of uncertainty. It’s not just that we don’t know whether she is telling the truth. That’s not the real suspense that has been building, although we’ve been given conflicting information on this too[2] . It’s that we don’t know whether we should be wondering it. Is it even possible? Aliens belong in certain shows, delusional high school girls in others. But what type are we in? And Haruhi stares back at us through Nagato’s indecipherable face, playing it straight. It anticipated out first (mis)understanding (“That is not what I mean”) and it knows we want the answer as to what it’s up to. But as the episode ends, it’s not giving any more hints.
4 = 7 (Baseball) 5 = 3 (Melancholy 3) Now time for baseball! This is… not what was expected. Although not entirely unexpected either, because if its earlier actions weren’t enough to convince us we can be pretty sure now Haruhi must be going for random nonsequitur. To not explain itself before moving on seems like just the sort of trick it would pull. It even keeps stringing us along with more strange coincidences, more indecipherable references, more cases of Nagato being weird-but-not-indisputably-alien-weird (which is a great visual gag, I might add)… but something is different.
Kyon, our faithful narrator, has changed his mind; he knows something we don’t. Or does he? Nagato immediately gives him a reason why she won’t do it, so maybe she’s just a dedicated roleplayer and he’s decided to humor her after their meeting. He knew she’d turn him down. ...maybe? We still can’t identify what a “tell” is in this show; how can we when it’s sending signals that are random, discomforting, and funny too? And it just keeps getting weirder, with references to the end of the world piling up and odd flashbacks that we cannot verify. Then the killing blow:
With the ball flying far out over the field, we now have confirmation: there is something supernatural going on in this series. The rest of it could be explained away, but not this. But here’s the kicker:
Haruhi knows it. It knew precisely up to the point that we would be doubtful and what kind of information we’d accept to make our decision. We didn’t figure it out; we were told. Haruhi played us, making us think our resolution with Nagato was on hold, only to pitch it to us here. Speaking of which…. We’re now returned to our regularly scheduled programming. The atmosphere, which before was merely suggestive, has become kaleidoscopic, the subtle hints exploding into a welter of visuals that let us know we’re not in Kansas anymore. But that’s the funny thing: we don’t need it. We’re already convinced. This is almost like Haruhi is rubbing it in our face that it was here the whole time and we didn’t bother to notice until now. It was also the moment when I fell in love with the series:
I had to pause the video and laugh until my jaw hurt. I know it’s quixotic to hope to convey comedy, but this was truly one of the most hilarious moments I have ever experienced in anime. In anything. Like all the gags in this show, it’s worth at least a chuckle on its own, a small denigration of Suzumiya’s nature that we can smugly agree with. But that’s the lesser portion. It’s the moment when this entire build up reflects back on itself holographically. A character, who is being told the truth but doesn’t accept it, is disparaging another who would do the same, while functioning as our stand-in, the audience who was skeptical about what Haruhi was telling us, in both cases because we “knew” what world we were in, caught in the act of confidently agreeing with his/our assessment of the foolishness of people who don’t listen to what they’re told. It is in that sudden snag, that snap of dissociation that proves not only that Kyon is an unreliable narrator, but that we are as well, that the waveform collapses in a moment of perfect comedic timing.
6 = 9 (Island 1) 7 = 8 (Missing computer club prez) 8 = 10 (Island 2) With this "reveal" that we’re actually in a supernatural random-discomforting-comedy the first arc ends and the second begins. Yet curiously little was resolved. Nagato has demonstrated herself in the way we accept but the other two club members have been less forthcoming with evidence; it’s all and special circumstances for using powers. Are they really what they say they are? This series could really go either way, but they’re probably both special. Probably. But the central issue is Suzumiya. Despite all the warnings and hints, we don’t actually know how to spot her powers at work. Apparently she’s omnipotent, but we have only the characters’ word to take for that. That’s fishy. It’s one thing to accept Nagato can bewitch sports equipment, it’s another that Suzumiya can destroy the universe because of a bad mood. And we have no way to prove that all these coincidences are actually Suzumiya’s fault, especially since things don’t always go her way. We need more data, and on cue is our mystery scenario:
Haruhi isn’t going to insult our intelligence by trying to hide it a second time. It comes clean up front in an overstated self-referential dialogue: the only way these sorts of things happen is if they’re rigged. Come on, we can’t miss it; this is the confirmation we wanted, right? Even though it’s not quite what Suzumiya dreamed of, it’s close enough to her fantasy that it’s clear she’s the culprit. Besides, who else could summon a typhoon from clear skies? The murder, however, was not expected. Sure there was mention of the apocalypse, but this has all been too flippant to take seriously; random and discomforting aren’t the same as dark. Haruhi wouldn’t kill somebody… would it? It’s the same conundrum as before with Nagato. We’re faced with a “confession” of sorts, with evidence leaning both ways, and as we wrack our brains we can’t quite convince ourselves after all its antics that Haruhi isn’t that sort of show. Maybe it’s just pretending to be dark. Maybe it’s not. Maybe Suzumiya will bring Keiichi back to life or rewrite time or… something. Who knows what she, or this show, can do, now that we’ve accepted her power. We’ll just have to find out next episode. … And now time for giant digital cave crickets! Not only is it the same problem as in episode three, it’s the same low-blow trick to yank us away from the action just at the height of the tension. But we know this song and dance (or, rather, maybe we do in retrospect; I didn’t know it at the time). The last “random” episode was informational, meaning this one likely is as well. So, what does this episode have to say? Well, to put it briefly, it’s a mystery that is actually an engineered scenario. At first we assume it’s Suzumiya’s fault, because everything is, but as she points out: if she does everything then what’s the purpose of the rest of the cast? The real culprit is somebody else, somebody completely obvious in her driving of the events and in the middle of all the action, someone who had even taken the opportunity to deflect a bored god’s enthusiasm with the scent of the unknown. Just because it slightly involved Suzumiya’s powers, that wasn’t the real story (she was hellbent on pursuing her own wrong theory anyway; what an idiot). I’m pretty sure I don’t have to spell out the obvious, since reading this far without having seen the series would be daft. Haruhi is taunting us. Just because the venue changed, the mystery never stopped; the indications are everywhere in this series, and it is even so kind as to repeatedly correct our key misunderstanding. Yet despite its valiant efforts, we’re more liable to be distracted by the crazy supernatural events, and so entirely reinforced in our faith that the murder scenario is supernatural too. No wonder Koizumi didn’t worry about Kyon catching his drift. The island isn’t done with us, though. Not by a long shot. Having given us innumerable clues (again) Haruhi lets us try to put it together (again) while we nonetheless remain remarkably confident (again). Why do we fall for it (again)? Because, as always, we think we have the right answer. Or, rather, the right framework. The real secret here is Suzumiya’s powers, not these pedestrian goings on. We’ll spare a thought for the murderer, of course, but having established the ultimate cause in our minds we are not overly concerned about the details; gods, if they want to kill somebody, will find a way. What’s preoccupying us is how to make all these events make sense in our theory (and patronizing Suzumiya’s ignorance… again). Again, everybody here knows the resolution, but I just wanted to remind how utterly delightful our own self-misleading can be. The only way we were fooled was if we obediently learned the wrong lesson from the first arc. Before we discounted signs of the supernatural because we didn’t think they fit; now that we know they fit, that’s all we could see. In fact, even when they didn’t fit we made them; did Suzumiya’s face really look like she was guilty? No, she was horrified and distraught, and told us outright that she didn’t actually think anything bad would happen. Haruhi would never kill somebody out of boredom. In spite of this, we chose her as the culprit because the evidence to the contrary was just too mundane to make note of in this supernatural random-discomforting-meta-comedy (and we don’t like her very much either). Meanwhile, it was Suzumiya who assiduously paid attention to the facts in front of her, and who was able to realize she was in a three level mystery: that there was an “apparent” truth (normal island / murder), a “false” truth that acts as a red herring (supernatural island / accidental door murder), and a real truth hiding at the bottom (it was all a play with a purpose, just like we were told at the start). We’re the ones who can’t seem to solve the mysteries staring us in the face. Of course, it’d be too embarrassing to admit that, so we’ll retreat to reminding ourselves how annoying she still is, and that we weren’t that clueless (be honest, you said the same thing). Haruhi even lets us keep our dignity by pretending we were helpful. snerk At this point I’m reminded of a short quip from a previous episode: if Haruhi can only throw straight, then eventually even a child would catch on. We knew Haruhi was trying to get a ball by us but accepted the soft-pitched, and painfully obvious, metacommentary anyway. That it had the confidence to even signal (loudly and repeatedly) before actually throwing a curveball means it thought we never had any hope of hitting it in the first place. We can gripe that it wasn’t clear, but what’s the point of a mystery if it tells you what the clues mean? Oh, and since it knows we weren’t really paying attention, Haruhi will even give us one last hint: what about that unidentified shadow that led them toward the cave? We thought the mystery was over, but maybe that’s because we never grasped what it was about.
“The SOS Brigade keeps getting caught up in various incidents… Even so, we couldn’t possibly run into situations like that every single day.”
This is it, the final episode… of sorts. It begins before the OP with a tranquil atmosphere, looking forward to the coming winter while happily reminiscing about the past. It’s all so homey. Time for us to kick back, relax, and enjoy one last healing round with our favorite characters... Yeah, right. There is no way that this is all there is to the episode. “Unusually cold day”? What’s the setup this time? Is Suzumiya going to accidentally cause winter to come early? Or is it Asahina’s turn to do something sneaky and leave Kyon forlorn? As the OP ends our eyes are peeled for what’s going to jump out next. The camera thoughtfully obliges us: a wide-angle that keeps the whole room in view, missing nothing, followed by God’s-eye perspectives, letting us linger over every detail (taking bets you paused it at least once, probably on the card game). It drags on in eerie inaction until Kyon startles and looks up (does the sun mean something?!?), as though he had just remembered that an episode was supposed to happen. The regular music comfortingly begins to play and he narrates for us as he always has:
“It sure is nice and quiet when Haruhi isn’t around. But I guess it’s a little too quiet, huh? Now that I think about it, it’s already been half a year since I met everyone. We’ve sure been through a lot. Situations where Haruhi was the instigator and a few where she wasn’t. Well, most of them started when we were kicking back and relaxing in the clubroom like so only to be interrupted by her barging in…”SLAM
Remember those times where we weren’t sure if something was going on? Where we were misled by our own expectations, hung up on whether something supernatural was happening (or not), and so overlooked important details? Well, Haruhi Farm remembers; they were great. The series might act like nothing is up, but suspiciously on cue Suzumiya bursts in the door. Something is always up, no matter what the opening told us, and after missing twice we’re intent on not striking out with a third failure. Besides, with more than half the series complete we’re beginning to notice the cross-references and double-meanings. We’re getting it now. And this is how the episode mocks us relentlessly for twenty minutes, because nothing happens. Of course, this doesn’t stop us from trying to find it happening. Kyon pauses in his walk down the hill and we hold our breath… but it’s only to idly wonder what Suzumiya is doing. Koizumi’s tea has gotten cold, nothing more. But, wait, calling Asahina a mascot character is self-aware! It’s just enough to keep us going. Just enough to convince us to sit and listen to four minutes and twenty two seconds of inane radio chatter hoping to find relevance in the words. It even does it to us a second time, and we’re prepared to listen all over again… before Tsuruya interrupts. Then it checks if we’ll do it a third time. Yep, we will. And we think we’re rewarded for our persistence: Nagato finally stands up, validating our efforts… only for the screen to go black. We were waiting for nothing. But really, we should have known this. Did we really think we’d see Asahina in the buff? No? How about again? And again? It doesn’t even seem to matter whether we know we’re being tricked, we’ll still fall for it at least three times (first arc, second arc, and now here). And to top it off, not only can Haruhi get us to do whatever it wants, we’ll even think ourselves clever when we’re forced to notice it. In the last few minutes, though, something does happen: Suzumiya likes Kyon. We probably already guessed this given the previous indications, or at least the tropes; the manic pixie dream girl is legally required to like the male protagonist, and even if Suzumiya is more “manic” than “dream girl,” it’s still obvious that’s her role. We won’t begrudge the scene though; it’s nice to have solid confirmation of anything in this series, after all. But don’t hope for too much, because Suzumiya will be Suzumiya. Like the last football pulled out from in front of us as we go to kick, she prances away with the umbrella and ruins any romantic tension that might have existed. After the rest of this episode, the rest of this series, did we really expect anything else? Strike three.
10 = 4 (Melancholy 4) 11 = 13 (The Legend of the Nagato Heroes) 12 = 12 (School festival, concert) Before continuing, a brief recap is in order (everybody likes recap episodes, right?). Bemused by the first episode, we were left off balance and so open to questioning what this series was about. The first few episodes carefully maintained this uncertainty, counting on then cashing in our wariness. The island arc demonstrated that it didn’t matter if we were aware of it, we could still miss the obvious because we thought we already knew the answer. Having been fooled repeatedly, we accepted what the final episode “told” us without question: this series is absurd, Haruhi sticking its tongue out at us until the last second.
As Ryoko speaks this line at the beginning of Melancholy 4, it seems a bit… unnecessary. Yes, of course, we already know this. We just saw it last episode; like any good tsundere, Suzumiya is humorously enamored to Kyon but almost pathologically unable to express her feelings. Watching her deny it while occasionally being caught in the act is part of the entertainment. But Haruhi likes commenting on itself, and we like noticing it, so why not?[3] At this point in the essay, I hope the reader has some inkling that we’re being set up. Have been set up all along. We’ve been allowed to think we know Suzumiya: she’s a thoughtless, obnoxious character who, despite being putatively intelligent, is comically delusional. Her feelings for Kyon are just part of this silly contrivance. Similarly, we think we know Haruhi. Like its titular character, it has been, and will be, one big (absurdist supernatural random-discomforting-meta) joke, and as Suzumiya walks on stage in her now-familiar bunny suit we can only groan at what is coming. “What foolishness has she cooked up this time,” we murmur amongst ourselves. Meanwhile she works steadily, solemnly, ignoring us and making sure everything is ready, before beginning...
It is the greatest, most heartfelt “prank” of the series: Suzumiya was a serious character all along. All it took was a disagreeable nature and funny appearances for us to not notice. We truly are bad at this. But now, like the beginning movie whose effect could not be faked without being followed through, there is no way to counterfeit the gorgeous animation or mistake the passion and personality of her song. Knowing so well how to toy with us, Haruhi knows how to prove itself too. The audience is stunned into silence, mouths hanging open in disbelief at having their expectations defied so spectacularly. But what I find truly arresting, touching even, about this scene is how it encapsulates Suzumiya at her best, a reflection of her life hidden in plain sight. From the first moment she was on stage, relentlessly expressing herself at maximum volume even though people didn’t understand. It was always a failure of having the right context. People already “knew” what her behaviors meant, and interpreted her accordingly (sound familiar?). So even as she explains herself (“I run through [life] with a thirsting heart”), her frustrated regrets (“I’m sorry I… couldn’t even share your pain / You wouldn’t let me”) and her fondest dream-memory (“You were there, I was there, and everyone else had vanished”) the audience is none the wiser for it. Except one. Kyon, our stand-in, at last has the wits to stare dumbfounded at this remarkable girl he had missed all along. When she is done, Suzumiya looks up as though waking from a trance, surprised to see everybody cheering. She was so absorbed by her own intensity she wasn’t even watching them. Now, even though they don’t understand, they do appreciate. She’s not used to being appreciated. An exhausted, joyous smile spreads across her face and she turns to the camera to let us know it. It’s the most tender expression she’s had all series. True she’s often grinning, but to see her like this it makes you realize that she’s not as often happy. This has been a window into her, a character that, like so many things, we didn’t pay attention to until we could no longer ignore.
Suzumiya has fantastic back muscles. It isn’t apparent until you get a clear look at them, covered as they normally are by a school outfit. She has a good body, fit and taught like a strung bow, poised for action. She isn’t ashamed of it. But like so many things about her, it’s not quite the body people are looking for. There are clues scattered throughout the series which only now become obvious. No matter the physical challenge, Suzumiya was there to meet it. Mentally it was the same. School isn’t an obstacle, she’s unusually perceptive, and her apparently-spontaneous schemes are actually quite well-planned and effective. If this were not enough, she possesses nearly unlimited energy, enough to run everybody else ragged, and a strong will to direct and utilize these impressive gifts. All of this was taken to be part of her caricature (what kind of show are we in again?) or covered by our own griping about her personality (because this was all about us), but the evidence was always there: Suzumiya is an exceptional human being in nearly every regard. This is why she’s on the lookout for the unusual. She’s on a mission. Normal life and normal people leave her unfulfilled so she dreams of something more; that she jettisoned the supernatural club as fast as anything else proves it’s not conspiracies that she believes in (she’s too smart for that, ironically), it’s a more interesting world. People think she’s behind when in truth she’s lapped them. And she never turned down a boyfriend. Suzumiya, against her fervent objections, is stuck being a healthy young female. She’s a bit of a romantic and is desperate to find that one person who will make her feel loved for being the vivacious, but tempestuous, girl that she is. She wants somebody to share her vision with more than she wants aliens, and keeps trying despite the unrelenting failures. Now she’s fallen for Kyon, the guy she dearly wishes to rely on, and doesn’t know what to do when he doesn’t reciprocate (“I’m sorry I… couldn’t even share your pain / You wouldn’t let me”). She’s scared he’ll let her down too[4] , afraid that he’ll never take her seriously, and angry when he expresses the self-satisfied mediocrity that causes her to disdain everybody else . So as she stands up there after the concert, having wowed everybody… Suzumiya apologizes. She’s sorry that the real band members, the ones people really wanted to see, weren’t there. Instead they got her. The bravado evaporates, the mic squeals awkwardly, and all Suzumiya can think to do is deflect attention away from herself. Underneath her confidence and her frustration is a sore spot: Suzumiya knows she is not liked, and after so long has come to feel she is unlikable as well. Even with all she can do, she can’t believe anybody wants her on stage. She may have seemed unconcerned with her tactless reputation, even going so far as to live up to it[5] , but to be neither agreeable nor comprehensible always hurt. It is such a stinging moment when the other band members stop by the room afterward to offer their thanks:
“We’re planning to put on one last concert. You should come and watch with your… (the girl turns questioningly to Kyon, then back to the camera pityingly)... friend.”
That the crowd still found her acceptable after all her apologies made her so happy she could cry. That the guy next to her, the one she just sang her heart out for, seems at best to tolerate her, means it yet went to waste. Suzumiya really is lonely and lovesick, and though not an easy person to be around her feelings are genuine. All of her is, to a fault. And in the background the series winks to let us know that we know it now too. This is Suzumiya’s struggle of the final few episodes, then. Throughout the series she has frantically tried to get Kyon’s attention in her own stubborn, eccentric way, because that’s how she needs to be appreciated if it is to mean anything. Yet it doesn’t seem to be working; he doesn’t even seem interested. Her last hope is failing her. It’s why she even overcame her trepidation to talk to him earnestly at the railroad tracks. Haruhi isn’t using an existential ramble to prove she’s special; we already know that. Nor is it an excuse for bad behavior. It is her beseeching Kyon to understand, that she knows what she’s doing and why, and an invitation to join her that she would extend to nobody else. The world was never threatened by her boredom, only by the ache that she would be alone in it. The resolution, though, is happy, and the last reason I value the broadcast order as it is. While the future may foretell that nothing happens, it slips in the side door anyway. We were fooled by not being fooled. It ends up all along, the core of this story really was a romantic high school comedy, and at the conclusion we get our confession (of sorts) and kiss. Shame on us for doubting. And lest we think Haruhi would impishly steal that back to spite us, that moment of annoyed disbelief as Kyon falls out of bed and we fear it was all a dream, the last scene before the wrap-up is Suzumiya with a ponytail. She won’t face the camera; it’s still hard for her to compromise even a little like this, after all. But... it really does look good on her. Conclusion in the comment below
Money Line. In a money line wager, the better is only concerned with who he or she thinks will win the game. There is no run total, but a favorite and underdog is still determined by the sports books and indicated by two separate odds.. Example: Braves +120. Phillies -130. In the above example, the Phillies are the favorite to win over the Braves. This is the foundation of baseball betting and is important to understand before really understanding the money line. Convert Money Lines to Percentage There are two formulas you will need to convert baseball betting lines into probability. NCAA brackets and NFL point spreads are easy to understand, even for the casual investor. But baseball betting—like betting for hockey, NASCAR, and tennis, among other sports—is a bit more ... Run Line Betting in baseball almost mimics NFL Spread Betting exactly, which is the most popular type of football betting. The line for baseball run lines is 1.5. With a 1.5 run line you will be able to place a wager on the favored team to win by 2 runs or more, or the underdog team to lose by 1 run or to win the game. Access USA TODAY Sports' betting odds for a full list of today's sports betting odds and lines. 2-way betting: Each individual bout can simply be wagered upon picking a straight-up winner, similar to a moneyline bet in the other major sports, with a favorite and an underdog.
NHL Offseason, MLB Playoffs, 10/8/20 The Morning After ...
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