Made my First Predictive MMA Spreadsheet - Check out it's Picks!
Trying to get into sports betting more seriously, I know MMA is hard to predict, and these calculations could be far more detailed, and are most likely not reflective of the actual odds of the fights, but it is more of an in-depth prediction into how the fighters match-up. I already have ideas of what I could add for more data, but this is a first draft, and I limited it to 16 statistics and assigned values to the stats to create a score for each fighter. I want to put it's predictions on here so I have some accountability for it's picks. Martin Day vs Davey Grant : Grant (53% Probability) Karol Rosa vs Vanessa Melo: Rosa (71% Probability) Raulian Paiva vs Zhalgas Zhumagulov: Paiva (61% Probability) Marcin Tybura vs Maxim Grishin: Grishin (58% Probability) Leonardo Santos vs Roman Bogatov: Santos (63% Probability) Makwan Amirkhani vs Danny Henry: Amirkhani (51% Probability) Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos vs Muslim Salikhov: Salikhov (52% Probability) Volkan Oezdemir vs Jiri Prochazka: Prochazka (53% Probability) Amanda Ribas vs Paige Vanzant: Ribas (62% Probability) Jessica Andrade vs Rose Namajunas: (Namajunas 51% Probability) Petr Yan vs Jose Aldo: Petr Yan (51% Probability) Alexander Volkanovski vs Max Holloway: Volkanovski (51% Probability) Kamaru Usman vs Jorge Masvidal: Usman (54% Probability) A few things to mention about these probabilities;
They use a limited set of 16 statistics I considered to be important to compare.
Some fights should be a higher probability, but came out lower because of a lack of detailed stats available, for example, Amanda Ribas vs Vanzant, Ribas is a huge favorite but only has 62%, I couldn't find a lot of her detailed stats, lowering the margin.
However, it's semi-important to note that when 1 fighter didn't have a stat available, I didn't track the other fighters either to balance it out.
My goal for draft 2 is having more statistics to input to increase the data set and hopefully see a more confident spread in the probability.
Finally, please DO NOT use these predictions to model any bets on, I don't want my first trial to be responsible for people losing money. I am somewhat satisfied with how this turned out for a first attempt, but I won't be putting money on most of these picks.
Post-Fight Update - 12/13 - A 92.3% success rate. Including I believe 3 betting underdog picks correct with Grant, Salikhov and Prochazka. I used these predictions to piece together a 4 fight parlay, I selected Rosa, Ribas, Volk by decision and Usman, and won with a 4.4x return. Aiming to run this format through previous cards throughout this week to see the accuracy using a larger sample size.
Just post a reply to a stickied betting thread with your picks and amounts. I'll book bets just before action fights start. On Sunday/Monday I'll post a follow-up with results. Your bankroll will be visible to all as your flair, updated weekly. You can parlay whatever you like (different fights obviously), I'll figure the true odds. If any of your parlay picks doesn't come through, you lose the entire bet. If you want to calculate parlays yourself, you can use this calculator. If a fight is cancelled, all bets on that fight will be pushed. Parlays will ignore that element of the bet. If you have a 3-way parlay, it will become a 2-way parlay. A 2-way parlay becomes a straight bet. In the case of a draw, straight bets are pushed, props are losers. In the case of a no contest (day of fight only), all bets are pushed. For parlays, you again just ignore that element of the bet. I'm pretty accurate with numbers, but I will no doubt screw up at some point. If you believe I've miscalculated your bankroll or a bet result, please let me know. I'll be sure to look into it and will correct any errors I find. I am the final word on any dispute, but I will try my best to be objective and fair. I'm doing this because betting with reputation is a great substitute for money. I also gain a great deal of enjoyment being involved in mma beyond just watching the fights. This will be a great excuse to get familiar with prelim fighters. If you have any questions post them here.
Straight betting, fights and how the hell bookies make money (X-Post from /r/Sportsbetting)
Originally posted on /sportsbetting but the only answer that was given was essentially "Because they are smart and have lots of cash". I've been looking at the math behind straight bets and realized that even with a vig incorporated, a bookie still regularily encounters a significant risk of not having their books balanced. To me it doesn't make sense that large players who are notoriously risk adverse would gamble on that without a guaranteed return. This seems to be especially true in straight bets with only 2 possible outcomes and little no chance for some additional level to bet, such as the spread. Boxing, NHL, MMA for example. So how do bookies (especially the large corporate players) actually make a return on these and reduce their risk? Do they push for acummulative parlays, yankee bets or lucky-15/31 bets? Is there some sort of math that allows the margin to be calculated to only take bets as long as they allow the profit margin to exist? I'm Canadian and sports betting here is very limited (MMA betting for example doesn't exist in any of our government run gaming organizations, we just have simple major league sports proline betting). Some friends were talking about a trip to Vegas and I started consuming as much material as possible. :) BTW your subreddit has been incredibly helpful.
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