Introduction
Welcome to the
/politics polling discussion thread for the general election. As the election nears, polling of both the national presidential popular vote and important swing states is ramping up, and with both parties effectively deciding on nominees, pollsters can get in the field to start assessing the state of the presidential race. Please use this thread to discuss polling and the general state of the presidential or congressional election. Below, you'll find some of the most recent polls, but this is by no means exhaustive, as well as some links to prognosticators sharing election models.
As always though, polls don't vote, people do. Regardless of whether your candidate is doing well or poorly, democracy only works when people vote, and there are always at least a couple polling misses every cycle, some of which are pretty high profile. If you haven't yet done so, please take some time to
register to vote or check your registration status.
Polls
Below is a collection of recent polling of the US Presidential election. This is likely incomplete and also omits the generic congressional ballot as well as Senate/House/Gubernatorial numbers that may accompany these polls. Please use the discussion space below to discuss any additional polls not covered. Additionally, not all polls are created equal. If this is your first time looking at polls, the
FiveThirtyEight pollster ratings page is a helpful tool to assess historic partisan lean in certain pollsters, as well as their past performance.
This is likely to be one of the last clear snapshots of polling until at least mid-September. Historically speaking, the party conventions impart a statistically significant 'bump' in candidates' poll numbers. This
convention bounce averages around 5 points for candidates (though some candidates have far surpassed this number), but the trend of high bounces has seen a decline in
recent elections. With increased coverage of each party during their respective conventions (DNC: August 17-20, RNC: August 24-27), and this year's conventions taking place in a mostly-remote setting, it is hard to predict how large or any impact on the polls will be.
Election Predictions
Prognosticators
Prognosticators are folks who make projected electoral maps, often on the strength of educated guesses as well as inside information in some cases from campaigns sharing internals with the teams involved. Below are a few of these prognosticators and their assessment of the state of the race:
- Cook Political Reports - Charlie Cook's race ratings are well regarded in the political field, and he's been in the business for a while. Cook is known to incorporate both public and nonpublic (ie. internal polling) information in his projections. Also covers (and is perhaps better known for) Senate and House races.
- Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball - Larry Sabato has also been in the political prediction business for a while now, and the team at the UVA Center for Politics has been fairly successful in past cycles. Towards the end of the election cycle, Sabato has a policy of making a call in each state, refusing to leave any race in the tossup category. Also covers Senate and House races.
- Inside Elections - Inside Elections, run by Nathan Gonzales, is the successor to Stu Rothenberg's Rothenberg Political Reports, which used to be a part of Roll Call. This prognosticator did fairly well in 2018, though Rothenberg himself boldly (along with some other pundits) predicted in 2016 that Donald Trump's path to the presidency was nonexistent. Also covers Senate, House and Gubernatorial races.
- Daily Kos Elections - Daily Kos Elections is the direct successor to the Swing State Project website, which merged with Daily Kos in 2010. Despite the liberal lean of the site as a whole, the Daily Kos Elections predictions tend to be fairly even-handed, if not even slightly bearish for Democrats. Presidential numbers aren't up yet but they have Senate, House and Gubernatorial races.
- RRH Elections - Red Racing Horses Elections is a site founded by former conservative-leaning members of the Swing State Project community. Despite the conservative nature of the commentary, like DKE, the race predictions tend to be fairly neutral, if slightly bearish for Republicans. Like the Crystal Ball, RRH will call all races before the election so that none are left in the tossup category. The presidential rankings have not been published but they do cover Senate, House, Gubernatorial and Row Officer (statewide elected officials, such as state Attorney General, Secretary of State etc.) races.
- Media predictions - CNN | U.S. News | NPR | POLITICO
Polling Models
Polling models are similar to prognosticators (and often the model authors will act like pundits as well), but tend to be about making "educated guesses" on the state of the election. Generally, the models are structured to take in data such as polls and electoral fundamentals, and make a guess based on research on prior elections as to the state of the race in each state. Below are a few of the more prominent models that are online or expected to be online soon:
- FiveThirtyEight - after months of work, the model is live! 538's team of analysts have put together a beast of a forecast for 2020. It runs 40,000 simulations of the election and uses that data to come up with a projected winner out of 100 sampled outcomes. It also breaks down the projection to show potential electoral college results, popular vote share, tipping point state likelihood, and it can even be broken down into state-level analytics.
- Princeton Election Consortium - this is the model run by Dr. Sam Wang, a neuroscience professor at Princeton University. This model has run in the past two cycles as well, though Sam Wang famously said he'd eat a bug if Donald Trump won the election because his model predicted no path to victory for the eventual winner of the 2016 election. Also includes projections for Senate and House.
- JHK Forecasts - the earliest model on the scene this cycle. Jack Kersting's model is one of the newer ones this year and also includes projections for Senate and House.
- The Economist - this is the model run by G. Elliott Morris, who previously had a midterm election model under The Crosstab.
- Niskanen Center - Rachel Bitecofer's projection, which only seems to update a couple times a cycle. Part of this has to do with Bitecofer's central argument that there are generally no swing voters, and electoral fundamentals drive the outcome of the election. This was put to the test in the 2018 midterms, where Bitecofer very early on predicted a Democratic pickup of 40-45 seats in the House, which fell about where the election ended up.
- Lean Tossup - a foreign model from Canada. This model did relatively well in the 2019 Canadian election, but this appears to be the first time they've tried forecasting the US Presidential election. Also includes Senate and House projections.
- Primary Model - Helmut Norpoth's model does not actually change with inputs anymore. The outcome it predicts, stated as a 91% chance for President Trump to win reelection, is premised entirely on the primary vote totals in the New Hampshire and South Carolina primaries from earlier this year. Despite being a bit of an outlier against other models, this one was among the only to forecast that then-candidate Donald Trump was a favorite to win election in 2016, and has been applied to correctly predict the winner of 5 of the past 6 presidential elections.
Prediction Markets
Prediction markets are betting markets where people put money on the line to estimate the likelihood of one party winning a seat or state. Most of these markets will also tend to move depending on polling and other socioeconomic factors in the same way that prognosticators and models will work.
Predictit and
Election Betting Odds are prominent in this space, although
RealClearPolitics has an aggregate of other betting sites as well.
First, my track record:
https://www.reddit.com/wallstreetbets/comments/fn4vs8/bet_like_its_a_fixed_horse_race_because_it_most/ - March 22nd where I warn WSB that the fed will fix the horse race and that we are transitioning to a more collectivist style of government.
Key phrase: " Point being, PUTs in this market are extremely rational if the market was rational. But it’s not and won’t be. "
https://www.reddit.com/wallstreetbets/comments/fpl5vz/assume_for_a_moment_the_stock_market_was_not_in_a/ March 26 Where I specifically call out XLK, which has gone up from 82 -> 96 in that time.
https://www.reddit.com/wallstreetbets/comments/fr2wzp/potential_market_game_changer_antibody_testing/ March 29 Where I warn about antibodies providing low mortality rates. Yes, there is still some confusion about these but they have absolutely encouraged people to be less worried.
https://www.reddit.com/wallstreetbets/comments/fxzup7/expected_more_from_gen_z/ Apr 09 where once I can warn against PUTS against SPY.
https://www.reddit.com/wallstreetbets/comments/g2lfl2/some_read_meat_for_the_shorts/ Apr 16, where I can advise folks to avoid shorts in SPY. Yes, ok, my advice in CNK may be a bit early, but I'm still accumulating positions as it rises. I am considering exiting this position as people are turning out to be more irrational than I expected and it'll just take too long for this bet to pay off.
https://www.reddit.com/wallstreetbets/comments/gjdx10/hot_tip_for_my_wsb_buddies/ Where I give a great link which is a leading indicator of pandemic surges. There has been no surge, which is bullish.
https://www.reddit.com/wallstreetbets/comments/glskik/an_economic_faaamine_pandemic_as_a_forcing/ May 17th, where I discuss the lack of surge.
https://www.reddit.com/wallstreetbets/comments/gr8ujw/shorts_on_twt May 26th Where I suggested shorts on twtr. If you bought them today at opening (May 27th), you could have made out very well.
https://www.reddit.com/wallstreetbets/comments/go8d3g/drumbeat_to_decoupling_china_cracking_down_on/ May 21, my E-mini puts majorly printed on Friday the day after.
I am now making another trade recommendation which I think is a great: PUTS on tech and calls on mainstreet.
We are going to see a massive sector rotation out of tech over the summer. Not just because they are overvalued, but blow back is coming from the trump base / peons. This is an election year and people are getting a hate on for well employed techies making out like bandits. Trump / GOP will leverage this:
https://www.axios.com/tech-summer-antitrust-24cffcc6-8afc-41f8-9b91-5be6d8269202.html https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/27/politics/donald-trump-twitter-threat-regulate/index.html In particular, this spike will come down:
https://i.redd.it/xwsciuzx5ov41.jpg You can do this via puts on XLK or some of tech stocks you don't like. FB looks good, for sure. ZM, SHOP, etc. Anything that is irrationally over valued. Do calls on stocks you do like and think will do well. Airlines seem a bit undervalued.
Safest would probably be PUTs on QQQ and calls on Russell 2000 IWM.
Suggestions on how better to arb these are welcomed. It's why we post, to spark ideas from the community.
If the economy craters, your trade will be mitigated via the PUTs on QQQ and will soften the loss. If reopening improves, there will be further sector rotation out of tech and into more mainstreet based stocks.
If China decoupling occurs, they could hit back on tech like Aapl and others. Online shopping reliant on importing from China could be hit.
TLDR - I've been right all along. Now I'm suggesting to follow the sector rotation out of tech that is currently happening with puts on tech / calls on mainstreet, it will mute any potential crashes that may occur via China decoupling or massive pullbacks.
Will add positions to post, but would like to hear first from the crowd for ideas.
Edit:
One possibility is buy calls on VDC, consumer staples - October 16th, 155. XLP might have more volume, Sept 18/59
QQQ options are rather expensive with high IV, you could sell calls and minimize your downside with buying calls at a higher strike price.
Maybe October 16th, 230/250 or 230/240.Or Sept 18 calls, sell 240 and buy 250.
Ok, here is my finalized trade I entered today (May 28th) - December 18, bear call combo on QQQ. Sold calls at 240, bought at 250
- 14.48 - 8.73 = 5.75 gained premiums.
- December 18, bought calls on XLI (industrials) at 80
Reasoning is that of all the reasonable sectors, only financials are more beaten down than industrials. Financials are in trouble as long as they are competing with the fed, so I'm not optimistic there.
Industrials however came back as fast if not faster than tech in 2008, so it seems to reason that there should be a rotation into that soon. Also, in the case of china meltdown these should hold up fairly well given the amount of domestic production around these.
QQQ got hit last week on HK announcement, but XLI did not.
52 week high for XLI is 85, currently at 69.
The general thrust of this trade is protection against China issues and leveraging a bit of virus caused irrational exuberance in tech relative to other sectors. It was either this or I'd have to stay out of the market, cause I really don't know how this China thing will play out. If it was just Trump, than I'd think we'd be OK, but China is acting in unexpected ways.
In the end, this isn't really tech vrs mainstreet. It's more tech versus legacy
One note about this trade - as the differential decreases, so will the profit opportunities. I'm looking for an annualized 100% return and will likely do a TP as soon as it makes sense. Hopefully there will be more clarity on the China situation by that point and there will be other interesting trading opportunities.
I'll update this post with news and as I exit. Book mark if you're interested.
** Exited the trade today, hope folks joined this for massive and safe tendies
Let's not pretend Drew Magary is some profanity-ridden Nostradamus wunderkind who can predict how an NFL season is going to go. Just for fun, though, I decided to go back through all of his columns and see what he happened to get right or wrong.
Tennessee Titans Record: 2-14 (2014), 3-13 (2015)
Spot On: On the off-chance that Marcus Mariota is actually good (and with Oregon’s legacy of highly drafted QBs like Akili Smith and Joey Harrington, how could he fail?), the Titans will still ruin him. They’ll plug him into a shitty, unimaginable offense; put him behind an abominable offensive line that is somehow WORSE than the one that allowed 50 sacks last season; and then blame him when everything goes to shit. Thankfully, Mariota will be too damned nice to get angry about any of this. YOUR PLEASANT DEMEANOR IS A SIGN OF COWARDICE, YOU GRASS SKIRT-WEARING PUSS. (Mariota got sacked 38 times in 2015, and had two separate knee injuries.)
Not Quite: And as long as he’s equipped with a knife, Justin Hunter will find a way to get open. (Hunter only played 9 games before an ankle injury sent him to IR for the remainder of the season.)
Also, LOL: Ken Whisenhunt. EVERYONE BEATS THE WHIZ. When are people gonna stop giving this man quarterbacks to ruin? Jake Locker RETIRED this offseason. Jake Locker is 19 years old. He had to retire because Whiz coaches all his quarterbacks to plant your face in the defender’s chest prior to releasing the ball. Classic throwing motion. Good thing they didn’t draft another slender, speedy quarterback who might be similarly frail! Oh wait… Cleveland Browns Record: 7-9 (2014), 3-13 (2015)
Spot On: I hope you have a firm grip on your scrotum, because this QB competition will BLOW YOUR FUCKING NUTS OFF. It is ON. One QB is an alcoholic who will one day rent himself out for fraternity dwarf-tossing parties. The other is a washout QB from a 2-14 team. MY NIPPLES ARE SHOOTING HOT MAGMA FROM THE THOUGHT OF IT. It’s so fucking on, you can’t even comprehend the on-ness of it all. (The QB position was essentially a turnstile thanks to Johnny Manziel's shitstack behavior and Josh McCown's injuries and general blandness.)
Not Quite: Oh, have I told you about Dwayne Bowe yet? Yes, somehow this all gets even more depressing, because Dwayne Bowe is your new #1 wideout. (Bowe ended up being a virtual non-factor on his team. He had a total of 5 receptions for 53 yards the entire season.)
Also, LOL: Not only did I purchase this jersey for my son, I made sure to buy it one size too large so he could wear it for 2 seasons.--Russ, a fan who included a picture of his toddler in a Manziel jersey.
San Diego Chargers Record: 9-7 (2014), 4-12 (2015)
Spot On: On the field, this is the same underachieving Chargers team you’ve known and barely-paid-attention-to for a while now. Rivers will toss some picks. Keenan Allen will steal your fantasy money (for real, fuck that guy). New running back Melvin Gordon will go way too high in your auction draft. They will be a perfectly average, replacement-level NFL team for the duration of the season and for the rest of your life. (Rivers threw 13 interceptions, which is not as bad as the previous year's 18, but still, meh. Allen missed the second half of the season with a kidney injury. Melvin averaged 3.5 YPC.)
Not Quite: Join us in 2027, when the Chargers are STILL threatening to move while going 8-8 from the Qualcomm parking lot. (Well...)
Also, LOL: [Rick Lyle] is the most strength coach-looking strength coach of all strength coaches. Rick Lyle will fucking burn a hole through your quads just with his eyes. I’m staring at his photo right now and I can literally hear a voice screaming at me YOU GOT TWO MORE IN YOU! YOU GOT TWO FUCKING MORE IN YOU! I’m not ready for a man of his intensity. Rick Lyle will fuck you up. Approach him at bar and he will grind a Schnapps bottle into your eye sockets. Dallas Cowboys Record: 12-4 (2014), 4-12 (2015)
Spot On: The team also handed Dez Bryant $45 million in guaranteed money this offseason, just in time for him to go directly into the tank. (When Dez wasn't injured, he tallied a total of 31 receptions for 401 yards, and also just three touchdowns, a significant fall from the year before.)
Not Quite: And who did the Cowboys bring in to fill the massive hole left by Spray Tan’s departure? Which longtime Jerry Jones wet dream did the Cowboys procure after years and years of open yearning? No, it wasn’t Adrian Peterson. Nope, you got Darren McFadden instead. If you have an old Lisfranc ligament that YOU would like to donate to Darren McFadden, please call the Cowboys front office at your earliest convenience. (DMC actually had a good season, finishing with 1,417 total scrimmage yards. He didn't get hurt either.)
Also, LOL: Also we employ several legitimate criminals. Every Cowboys offseason is like some sick test of our morality where I have to decide if I’m a terrible person if I don’t denounce them and buy a Jaguars jersey as penance.--Jesse, a fan
Jacksonville Jaguars Record: 3-13 (2014), 5-11 (2015)
Spot On: ...rookie TJ Yeldon can’t be any worse than Toby Gerhart was last season. I say that knowing full well that Alabama running backs are the Oregon quarterbacks of running backs. (Yeldon didn't break 1,000 rushing yards, but at least he more than doubled the output that Gerhart gave last season.)
Not Quite: Speaking of the future, the Jaguars will have the dubious honor of playing the first live streaming game this season. Yes, the NFL has deemed their game against Buffalo (in London) so to be so utterly disposable as to be given away for free on the internet, outside the purview of TV broadcast rights. On Yahoo, no less. They aren’t even putting that shit on a GOOD website. I hear that Lycos is making a strong play for all local Jaguars preseason broadcasts. (Actually, general consensus was that the Yahoo stream was pretty darn good. Too bad their video platform is dead already.)
Also, LOL: That is the current state of the Jaguars right now. Bereft of a talented roster or sentient fans, they exist mainly to serve as the NFL’s lab rat. We’ll put them in London! We’ll put them on the Internet! We’ll make them the first helmet-less team! We’ll inject them with liquid uranium! We’ll replace all their players with cyborg apes! If there is a shitty idea to be had, rest assured that Roger Goodell will run it through the Jacksonville test kitchen first to keep all the other, useful franchises safe from harm. The Jaguars are NOT FDA-approved. Baltimore Ravens Record: 10-6 (2014), 5-11 (2015)
Spot On: By the way, the Ravens lost Torrey Smith this offseason. They drafted Breshad Perriman but he’s already suffered a knee injury. So this offense will be largely dependent on Flacco throwing to a 36-year-old wideout and giving a 50-pound running back 300 touches. Oh, but this is a Super Bowl contender. You keep telling yourself that. (Perriman, of course, did not play a single snap in the regular season. Flacco, Forsett, and Smith were okay-to-decent, but then they all ended up on IR. This team was most definitely not a Super Bowl contender.)
Not Quite: These are the Ravens, so you can always count on them to vie for the AFC North title and then become a potentially damaging playoff team, usually because Suggs has taken out enough opposing knees to clear the way for them. Even with Haloti Ngata traded away and the skill positions depleted, this remains the most frustratingly competent evil team in sports. (5-11. Chances of making the playoffs, much less the Super Bowl, were slim for this team this year.)
Also, LOL: Did I miss anything? Oh, right! It was the Ravens who tipped the Colts off to the Patriots deflating footballs. So you have them to thank for Ballghazi. And Ray Rice. And probably the disappearance of MH370. They are the headwaters of all bad things. They are involved in so many awful incidents that you can’t even remember half of the awful things they did. I didn’t even get to Terrell Suggs, man. Their depth at Shitbag is unmatched. Jesus. Join us this season when the Ravens kill your grandparents. Fuck this team forever. San Francisco 49ers Record: 8-8 (2014), 5-11 (2015)
Spot On: Two years ago, the Niners had the best linebacking corps of the decade. Two of those linebackers are gone. One of the remaining two is still recovering from a horrific knee injury. A promising young replacement LB retired due to fire migraines. Stalwart DT Justin Smith? Also gone. Harbaugh? Gone. Michael Crabtree? Gone. Frank Gore? Gone. Half the o-line? Gone. Andy Lee? Gone. Ray McDonald? Uh… well, he had some issues. Everyone retired or got arrested. The only thing left of this team is the shadow it cast on the wall just before the nuclear bomb went off. (Yeah...other than a brief ride on the Blaine Train, it wasn't a pretty season.)
Not Quite: Tomsula will make for a fantastic undertaker. In time, he will grow a proper hunchback. He’s certainly not qualified to be the head coach of a professional football team, but that’s no longer an issue for the York family. So long as Tomsula turns off the sprinklers and is happy to be paid in canned beans, the job is his eternally. (He got canned. Surprise?)
Also, LOL: Jed York looks like Drew Magary had sex with an uglier Drew Magary. --Meaty, a fan
Miami Dolphins Record: 8-8 (2014), 6-10 (2015)
Spot On: Ten years from now, Tannehill will still be playing for the Dolphins and everyone will still be like, “Is he good? He may not be good.” It’s hard to tell when you’re getting sacked 46 times a year. (Wow, so close...the Dolphins allowed their QB to get sacked 45 times in 2015.)
Not Quite: HE’S ALIVE! JOSH FREEMAN IS ALIVE! Imagine being a defender and seeing Josh Freeman come into the game. It’s like seeing the boss leave work early. I’d be elated. (Josh Freeman did start a game...for the Colts.)
Also, LOL: DID YOU HEAR TOM BRADY MIGHT BE SUSPENDED?!! Tampa Bay Buccaneers Record: 2-14 (2014), 6-10 (2015)
Spot On: Lovie Smith. There are certain head coaches who make for disastrous retreads, and Lovie Smith is one of them. We all think of Rich Kotite as a walking punchline, but Rich Kotite went 36-28 as head coach of the Eagles before he burned the Jets to the ground. It took that second job for his true shittiness to be laid bare. That’s where Lovie Smith is right now. He’s right in the Mooch Zone. Five months from now, when he staggers out of Tampa with five total wins to his name, people will ask, “How the fuck did THAT guy take a team to a Super Bowl?” And there will be no good answer. (On a late Wednesday night after the season was over, Lovie indeed got shitcanned.)
Not Quite: Also, Doug Martin sucks now. He doesn’t even like being called the Muscle Hamster anymore, so he is both shitty AND humorless. He makes me sad. Maybe Jameis Winston will trip over him and make me feel better. (Martin had a darn good season with over 1,500+ total scrimmage yards. And the Muscle Hamster will never die!)
Also, LOL: Also, a Bengals fan punched one of your fans right into the street. A Bengals fan! You know how weak and slow Bengals fans are? That’s like getting punched out by a dying Labrador. New York Giants Record: 6-10 (2014), 6-10 (2015)
Spot On: Every year we do these previews, and every year the Giants are the hardest entry because they are never, ever, ever different. (It was hard for me to find a lot of accurate predictions in this particular column. But, Drew had the right idea. This team ended up with the same record as last year.)
Not Quite: Given Eli’s pattern of winning a Super Bowl every four years, the Giants are actually on track to win their fifth Super Bowl this season. (Nah. His brother, on the other hand...)
Also, LOL: FUN FACT: The Giants have won more than 12 games once
in the last 30 years. They are the most accomplished mediocre franchise in sports history. Chicago Bears Record: 5-11 (2014), 6-10 (2015)
Spot On: This defense. My God…this defense. Here’s a fun fact from last season: against the Bears, Tom Brady went 30-for-35 with five touchdown passes. Four of those incompletions were drops. The Bears defense is air. You can go right through it, as a ghost would a wall. They are not there. (Chicago's defense was not very good in 2015. They were ranked 20th by Pro Football Reference.)
Not Quite: Jared Allen is older than the classic rock he listens to, and will now be forced to play out of position in a 3-4 defense. (Allen did not end up having to play in a 4-3 setting for long, getting traded to the 3-4-friendly Carolina Panthers early in the season.)
Also, LOL: A few years back my buddy went to Bears Training Camp. Later that day, he walked by Jay Cutler while wearing CUTLER’S JERSEY, said ‘Go Bears’ and pumped his fist. Jay gave him a dirty look, then looked away and kept walking.--Justin, a fan
New Orleans Saints Record: 7-9 (2014), 7-9 (2015)
Spot On: The defense is still awful and hasn’t been the same since the NFL banned their hit pool. I don’t care that Browner and Anthony Spencer are here now. When Rob Ryan is your D-coordinator, the goal of your “defense” is to luck into two turnovers per game so that you can barely hang on to win 35-30. (Pro Football Reference ranked the Saints D dead last. The Saints indeed tried to hang on for dear life despite their porous defense; just to name a couple examples, they barely won a high-scoring game against the Giants, but lost another slugfest against the Panthers.)
Not Quite: It’s the NFC South. Brees could throw 40 picks and this team would still cruise to a division title at 6-10. I’d bet money on that outcome. (Lol, I hope he didn't, Panthers kicked the shit out of everybody in their division and conference.)
Also, LOL: BRAND MANAGER: Hey, Drew! Endorse this! (throws pile of money at him) BREES: Sure! What is it? BRAND MANAGER: Just shut up and read the copy! BREES: I’ve been chewing Hitler-brand chewing gum my whole life, and I won’t stop now! I’M A HITLER GUY ALL THE WAY! Philadelphia Eagles Record: 10-6 (2014), 7-9 (2015)
Spot On: Keep in mind that Murray set team records for Dallas last season behind an absolutely brilliant offensive line. He will not have the same luxury in Philadelphia. This line was fucking horrid last season, and it’s even worse now that Kelly has run guard Evan Mathis out of town. One day, Kelly will pull a Joshy McDaniels and cut everyone, and then operate the team using only AVATARS, who are controlled through cognitive telekinesis. Until that day, the only holes Murray will see on the field this season are the ones in Bradford’s knee joint. (Hoo boy. Murray rushed for 1,845 yards with an average of 4.7 yards per carry in 2014. This most recent year, he was well under a thousand yards rushing with an average 3.6 YPC. To call it a drop-off would be an understatement.)
Not Quite: No one has any fucking idea what [Kelly's] plan is. When the most obvious explanation for your personnel moves is that you’re vaguely racist, that’s not good (Fun fact: The Eagles had the whitest roster in football even before this offseason). Otherwise, Kelly has made moves like a drunken fantasy owner who needs to be reminded by concerned friends that he drafted five RBs in a row and forgot to take a wideout. As it stands now, Riley Cooper might be the best wideout on this team. RILEY FUCKING COOPER. (Jordan Matthews was bettemore utilized than Riley Cooper in the passing game (despite having
bricks for hands). Cooper didn't even accrue more yardage than Zach Ertz, Brent Celek, or Darren Sproles.)
Also, LOL: I once saw a girl so shit-faced drunk that she was being carried down the steps of the upper deck completely incapacitated. And the game hadn’t even started yet.--Andy, a fan
Oakland Raiders Record: 3-13 (2014), 7-9 (2015)
Spot On: Amari Cooper, shown here wishing he had been drafted by Jacksonville, was arguably the most talented and hardest-working player available in the whole draft. Put him together with Carr and a healthy Latavius Murray and this almost resembles a functional NFL offense. (Drew tries to damn the Raiders with faint praise here, but: Cooper put up a decent 1,070 receiving yards and averaged 14.9 yards per reception; Carr's performance was overall improved in his sophomore year; and Murray had over 1,000 rushing yards.)
Not Quite: Finally, a place where Michael Crabtree’s malcontent nature can fully flourish. FUN FACT: Mr. Sorry Receiver has gone over 1,000 yards in his career exactly once. (True. Still, Crabtree racked up 922 receiving yards, the second-highest in his career. As second fiddle to Cooper, he didn't really slouch.)
Also, LOL: Given that the Raiders also contemplated hiring Eric Mangini and Pat Shurmur, I guess Del Rio is a halfway tolerable choice. But really, after getting the Heisman from Jim Harbaugh (imagine a coach looking at your organization and being like, “I’d better go to Michigan. They’re WAY more functional”), they limited their options like they were dining at a Jersey Turnpike rest stop. “Well, I can eat Burger King, or I can scavenge for chicken bones in the shitter trash can.” This franchise has been eating shit for so long that Del Rio’s career record looks like the feat of a God at this point. OMG HE ALMOST WENT .500 WHAT IS THAT LIKE? St. Louis Rams Record: 6-10 (2014), 7-9 (2015)
Spot On: Kroenke’s quest to beat the Chargers and Raiders to L.A. has resulted in not one, but TWO cities being openly exploited via every possible bureaucratic loophole. The Rams convinced Inglewood to NOT allow a public vote on the Rams stadium project. In turn, the St. Louis Stadium authority sued to prevent residents from voting on a counter plan to keep the team in town and assist Kroenke in fucking over the public for decades to come. That riverfront stadium would cost a whopping $985 million, of which only a quarter would be fronted by Kroenke personally. This is St. Louis, mind you. Their budget is already stretched thin because of their historic need to overspend on tanks for killing black people. And so this story ends a few months from now with either a) The Rams finally leaving, or b) A cash-poor town getting buried in debt for centuries to come to help make a shitbag billionaire even wealthier. (Sigh.)
Not Quite: TODD GURLEY! Holy shit, look at how fast he is! What a beast! I can’t wait for him to *LIGAMENT AUDIBLY TEARS*
OH MY GOD HIS KNEE DIED I AM SO SAD THIS IS ALL SO SENSELESS. (Gurley didn't tear a ligament, but he did tear up the field, gaining 1,106 rushing yards at an average of 4.8 YPC, plus he got 10 touchdowns.)
Also, LOL: Fuck Stan Kroenke with a jackhammer dipped in ebola.--Gary, a fan
Detroit Lions Record: 11-5 (2014), 7-9 (2015)
Spot On: This offseason, the Lions were faced with two choices: A) Overpay Ndamukong Suh and Nick Fairley and watch them sabotage the team by going directly into the tank, or B) Let them walk and watch the second-best defense in football fall apart as a result. The Lions chose option B. This is life in Detroit. You are presented with a number of options, all of which leave you fucked. (Pro Football Reference ranked the Lions defense in the bottom 10 of the league. 5.6 yards allowed per offensive play.)
Not Quite: LOOK AT ME! I’M SO TOUGH LISTENING TO KID ROCK AND DRIVING A BROKEN CHEVY AND SHOPPING AT THE LOCAL KROGER! Meanwhile, I know damn well that the only reason people stay in Michigan is for the 10-cent recycling deposit. (And the water, don't forget the water!...Sorry. Drew didn't make too many broad predictions in this column so it was hard to find anything that was blatantly incorrect.)
Also, LOL: I ASKED MY OLD MAN FOR A FINAL WORD ON THE LIONS. HE SAID “WHY DO YOU BUG ME WITH THIS SHIT EVERY YEAR?” I WAS LIKE HEY IM A LIONS FAN. HE TOLD ME TO GET OUT WHILE I CAN. I CANT--ZODIAC MOTHERFUCKER, a fan, capping off an all-caps rant.
Atlanta Falcons Record: 6-10 (2014), 8-8 (2015)
Spot On: I assume Quinn knows how to, like, do defensive stuff. Which is good, since this was the worst defense in football last year. The team drafted heavily on that side of the ball so that they can stand firm when Ryan gets carted off the field on a dog sled. (Quinn got the team to a couple extra wins this past season, and his team's defense was ranked in the top 15 by Pro Football Reference.)
Not Quite: Also: the Falcons have no depth at running back and Roddy White and Julio Jones are rarely healthy at the same time. (Yeah, the RB depth wasn't quite there, but you can't deny that Devonta Freeman was awesome for this team for most of the season: 1,600+ total scrimmage yards with 14 total TDs. Roddy White was irrelevant, but Julio Jones had his best season ever, with 1,871 receiving yards.)
Also, LOL: No one will ever take the Falcons seriously. Ever. It’s cute when they make an NFC title game or a Super Bowl, but come on. No one is scared of the Falcons. No other team is like OH GOD IT’S THE FALCONS RUN FOR YOUR LIVES! They got docked a draft pick this offseason for piping in fake crowd noise, and that fake crowd noise didn’t even help because the team was 3-5 at home anyway. They are a perennially harmless team that will never achieve league-wide relevance. They’re like the Hawks, but football. Indianapolis Colts Record: 11-5 (2014), 8-8 (2015)
Spot On: ...this team is stocked with garbage linemen and veteran retreads looking to glom a Super Bowl ring off of Luck, as if Luck is 39 years old and has only one season left to play. The offensive line is crap. The front seven is crap. Rookie wideout Phillip Dorsett is already hurt. What kind of bullshit roster is this to build around Luck? (Frank Gore had an okay 967 rushing yards in 2015. Dorsett was nothing to write home about, getting a season total of 225 receiving yards. T.Y. Hilton was the most consistent bright spot of this team.)
Not Quite: Deep inside Irsay’s soul, past the 80 shades of ruddy and the heady alchemy of six unauthorized prescription medications working their magic in his bloodstream, he probably wishes he had kept Bruce Arians. He probably wishes he had kicked Pagano to the curb and installed Arians as head coach in what would have been the most callous, bloodless move in sports history. Instead, he kept Pagano and let Arians walk, and will now send Pagano packing this winter, when such a move will be more socially acceptable, after this pissy team bows meekly out of the playoffs by committing eight turnovers against New England. (As much as Pagano's tenure looked like it was coming to an end after this season, he signed a four-year extension with Colts last month.)
Also, LOL: Andrew Luck is a hairy mutant forest goblin who spends his free time baking people’s grandchildren into pies and eating those pies. Buffalo Bills Record: 9-7 (2014), 8-8 (2015)
Spot On: Offensively, McCoy is bound to score more often at his private orgies. Harvin hasn’t been a dangerous receiving threat in over four years. (Drew mainly spent this article making fun of what drunken idiots the Bills and their fans are, so this was the closest I could find to a solid, accurate prediction. Though McCoy missed four games, he likely would have finished with the same okay-to-decent stats he had the year before. Harvin played only five games and might quit football completely.)
Not Quite: Bills fans are already talking themselves into Tyrod Taylor. That’s where we are, and it’s only August. Jesus. (Tyrod Taylor actually ended up being quite a good QB for the Bills. His overall season passer rating was 99.4.)
Also, LOL: They’re all here: hazers, punchers, convicts, rustlers, cut throats, murderers, bounty hunters, desperados, mugs, pugs, thugs, nitwits, halfwits, dimwits, vipers, snipers, con men, Indian agents, Mexican bandits, muggers, buggerers, bushwhackers, hornswogglers, horse thieves, bull dykes, train robbers, bank robbers, ass-kickers, shit-kickers AND METHODISTS!!!!!!! This year, you won’t be able to tell the difference between the Bills fans punching each other in the parking lot and the Bills themselves. It’s gonna be fantastic. If the Bills can’t win, they may as well act like they’re in the second-lamest production ever of Suicide Squad. New York Jets Record: 4-12 (2014), 10-6 (2015)
Spot On: Also, Stevan Ridley is here to tear his ACL. Has he torn it yet? He probably tore it just now. Oh, but he’s a former Patriot! THE JETS TRIUMPH ONCE AGAIN. (Ridley spent half the season just recovering from his knee injury from the year before, and when he saw the field, he stunk. The running game was mainly led by Chris Ivory and Bilal Powell.)
Not Quite: Geno Smith is special in that he can fuck up ANY play: basic handoffs, dump passes, quick counts … I don’t even trust him when the DEFENSE is on the field. When the Jets are on defense, I fully expect Geno to distract them by accidentally tripping over the stadium circuit breaker, thus allowing a 98-yard touchdown. (Not to worry. This season was arguably completely changed when Geno got punched in the mouth and broke his jaw. Fitzmagic, baby!)
Also, LOL: You morons think eggplant parm is a health food. Washington Redskins Record: 4-12 (2014), 9-7 (2015)
Spot On: [GM Scot McCloughlan signed] defensive lineman Terrance “Pot Roast” Knighton away from the Broncos, because great things happen when the Skins sign any oversized, free-agent defensive linemen. (Okay this was the only statement I could find that made some sort of accurate prediction about the season. Almost every other word Drew typed was just pure mockery of the Skins. Knighton's season was about the same as the one before: fine, nothing really amazing.)
Not Quite: Anyway, you know the deal by now: RG3 was brilliant in his first year, exclusively due to his freakish athletic ability. He has since lost that ability after suffering a torn ACL, a torn LCL, a dislocated ankle, a shattered pituitary gland, a ruptured torso, a broken liver, a torn bladder, a hatchet gun wound, and a full-body tumor. But his daddy still thinks he’s Steve Young, and so the Skins are gonna spend another year fucking the chicken, forcing Gruden to work with a ninth-tier QB that he openly despises. (RG3 didn't play a single snap in the 2015 season. CAP'N KIRK, BABY!)
Also, LOL: Imagine if Donald Trump’s Twitter feed were a football team. That’s the Skins. Three days in Ashburn and you automatically become ignorant, self-important, arrogant, trolling, entitled, and breathtakingly STUPID. So, so fucking stupid. This is the dumbest organization in America of ANY kind, be it a team, or a company, or a political action committee, or a non-profit organization. Line ‘em all up and the Skins will out-moron them at every turn. The mere act of wearing a Skins jersey makes you look like a slobbering idiot. Seriously, you’re all embarrassing yourselves. You may as well be wearing parachute pants and a neon tank top. Houston Texans Record: 9-7 (2014), 9-7 (2015)
Spot On: ...Texans won themselves the Brian Hoyer Sweepstakes and are now the proud owners of a failed Browns QB who had a TD:INT ratio of 1:8 in his final four starts. Christ. Hoyer will be competing with pituitary disorder victim Ryan Mallett for the starting job. Looking forward to the day Houston trades for Jimmy Garoppolo and Matt Cassel so that all four failed Tom Brady backups can be housed under a single roof. ONE OF THEM MUST HAVE GOTTEN SOME BRADY ON HIM COME ON GUYS. (Oh, what a QB competition it was. Sheesh. BoB kept switching back and forth between Mallett and Hoyer before Mallett's broken alarm clock got him cut from the team. T.J. Yates got in on some of the action too!)
Not Quite: Also: Jadeveon Clowney is just never gonna play. He’s the defensive equivalent of Sam Bradford. (He played! Not amazingly, but he played 13 games.)
Also, LOL: When our supremely fucked-up football culture looks at itself in the mirror, Watt is what it sees: a big humorless white dolt who presents himself as his own private branch of the U.S. military, who supposedly eats, sleeps, and breathes FOOTBAW and goes off into the forest every offseason to train for the sport like a real life version of the first hour of Batman Begins. Listening to hot takers praise Watt makes me want to blow up the sun… Minnesota Vikings Record: 7-9 (2014), 11-5 (2015)
Spot On: FUCK YOU WE’RE WINNING THE DIVISION (Thus it was written. Thus it shall be.)
Not Quite: These receivers are shitty and Kyle Rudolph is the most perpetually overrated tight end in the sport. (Yeah, the overall passing game wasn't really a strong part of the Vikings offense this week, but Rudolph did okay--at the very least, he played all 16 games! Also, Stefon Diggs, amirite?)
Also, LOL: After Peterson was formally disciplined, he threw a shit fit, threatened to hold out, and spent months trying to get traded to Dallas so that Jerry Jones could grope him like a stewardess. Now he’s back, and do you know what the worst part is? I couldn’t be more delighted. I am fucking pumped. All that pouting and child abuse? Forgotten the second he breaks one for 30 yards. I already forgot that Peterson used charity funds last year to host orgies. I’m a garbage person. I deserve to have the rug pulled out from me yet again. I bet Week 2 will roll by and Harrison Smith will get charged for bombing a church or something. Cincinnati Bengals Record: 10-5-1 (2014), 12-4 (2015)
Spot On: The Bengals have lost in the first round of the playoffs for four straight years by a combined score of 103-43. They haven’t won a playoff game since 1990. Can’t we just BAN them from the playoffs at this point? I’ve had enough. We need to re-seed the playoffs so that the Bungles can never get in. If they qualify for the Wild Card round, they should immediately be replaced by the team with the next best record. If that had happened a year ago, the Ravens would have been the 5-seed and the Texans would have been the 6-seed. We could have had J.J. Watt in there. FUCK, MAN. We only get 11 of these playoff games a year. I want them to MEAN something. Marvin Lewis just scours his asshole with them. It’s a systemic problem. (God dammit, you guys.)
Not Quite: What has always sucked: Gio Bernard! GIO BERNARD, YOU OWE ME FUCKING MONEY. Jeremy Hill ran for 154 yards subbing for Bernard, and I was like, “Oh, that’s okay. Gio will get his job back!” AND HE DID NOT. He probably fucking died, for all I know. God damn you, Gio Bernard. I hate your face. (Bernard actually had more total yards from scrimmage in 2015 than Hill did.)
Also, LOL: This city’s three biggest exports are race wars, inedible chili, and Ickey Woods. Every white person in the metropolitan area is named Mack. The Florence Mall has a water tower that says FLORENCE Y’ALL because Cincy is spiritually part of the Deep South and is therefore the worst. The Bengals’ most famous player is Boomer Esiason, who is a flaming asshole. I hate the Bengals. Pittsburgh Steelers Record: 11-5 (2014), 10-6 (2015)
Spot On: This receiving corps is unreal, which means that Big Ben will post a six-TD game the moment you bench him in fantasy. Also, DeAngelo Williams is here to sub for Le’Veon Bell whenever Bell gets hurt and/or openly smokes a blunt while sticking his head out of a moon roof. (My god, Antonio Brown's stats, not to mention his acrobatic antics, are just unreal. Having Bryant and Wheaton along with him gave this team some amazing depth at receivers. Bell unfortunately got put on IR after his return from suspension, but Williams was definitely no slouch in his absence.)
Not Quite: Your coach: Mike Tomlin, who looks like an angry frog. (He's more of an angry
Omar Epps.)
Also, LOL: This is 90% of the fanbase. This is most of us--Justin, a fan
Seattle Seahawks Record: 12-4 (2014), 10-6 (2015)
Spot On: Oooooh, look! It’s Jimmy Graham! I bet you fans are just dying to see Graham catch jump-balls in a fully armed and operational Seattle offense. Can’t you envision a season in which this man catches 20 touchdown passes? Can you just SEE it, right in your mind? Good, because that’s as close to reality as you’re going to get, because Jimmy Graham will hurt his foot in Week 4 and Wilson will spend the rest of the season running for his life because Seattle dealt away its best interior offensive lineman. (Jimmy Graham didn't exactly set the world on fire in Seattle. His production as a red-zone machine continued downward from his high-water mark in 2013. He also ended up getting put on IR, though it wasn't until Week 11.)
Not Quite: On the other side of the ball, you no longer have Byron Maxwell manning the corner opposite Richard Sherman. Half the defensive backfield had their arms mangled last season. But there is good news! You drafted rookie defensive end and certified woman-puncher Frank Clark! Oh goody! The Seahawks drafted Clark, feigned ignorance about his woman-punching habits, and have somehow gotten away with it relatively unnoticed because NFL reporters treat Seattle like some kind of distant military outpost located across a sea filled with dragons. (For better or worse, Richard Sherman, Frank Clark, and the rest of the Seahawks defense thrived and finished the season as one of the top squads of 2015.)
Also, LOL: Listen: it is Deadspin editorial policy to support Marshawn Lynch in all his petty feuds with the media because people ALWAYS take sides against the media because the media is fucking terrible. This is why Donald Trump is winning in the polls. I get that and agree with it. But that doesn’t mean I have to actually like Marshawn Lynch, because I don’t. He is in the mold of Chad Johnson and Dwight Howard and a million other “funny” athletes who are not funny at all. Also, the whole Skittles thing is stupid. Eat a steak, you fucking child. Green Bay Packers Record: 12-4 (2014), 10-6 (2015)
Spot On: Jordy Nelson’s done for the year already! HOW MARVELOUS. And Randall Cobb tweaked his shoulder! By the end of this season, Rodgers will be forcing passes to waiver bait and you’ll be like, “Jesus Christ, who is Flarney Bonewood and why does he have 5 TD catches for Green Bay?” Nothing sadder than watching a franchise QB desperate try to find a go-to wideout only to fail miserably. (Nelson was sorely missed in 2015. While Rodgers pulled off some amazing throws, a lot of those throws were missed, bobbled, or straight up dropped by his receivers. His completion percentage dropped from 65.6 to 60.7.)
Not Quite: The good news is that, since Mike McCarthy is your coach, the offense will completely ignore Eddie Lacy and have Rodgers pass the ball 50 times a game in a desperate attempt to establish a rapport with Jared Abbrederis. Watch Packer fan freak out when the new white guy scores his first TD. OMG HE’S SUCH A GRINDER PASS THE BRATWURST SHAKE. (Arguably, Lacy was worth ignoring this year; his running was just not there. Abbrederis was targeted 16 times for 9 receptions and 111 yards.)
Also, LOL: This is the part where I disclose that I am a Vikings fan, which means that, since my team sucks, 99 percent of my joy as a sports fan is derived from seeing the better, fatter, holier-than-thou team from next door fuck up. So CRY. CRY YOU LOSER PACKER LOSERS BECAUSE YOU LOST CONTINUED IN THE COMMENTS BELOW! Read the latest betting tips from Betfair™ experts. Daily Football Betting Tips Daily Horse Racing Betting Tips Latest Betting Offers. Horse Racing Tips from betting.betfair. Read our latest Horse Racing Tipping Selections and enjoy our Free daily horse racing tips click to enter tips. 5 - NORTHERN SUN - Best work late to be in the mix when dropping to this grade last start. Hard to hold out if closer in running. 3 - EXTRA WIN - Gate a concern (again) but ran on very well late last start and will figure in this finish. 4 - LOVING BABE - Broke maiden status this trip and track last start but the field was weak. Gate 2 and Duric suggests worth following. free horse racing betting tips at Ladbrokes.com Ladbrokes news – the best source for horse racing betting tips After a profitable Cheltenham and Grand National, thoughts turn to the flat racing season Friday horse racing tips — Donald — Race 1. (13:00) Donald Comm Bank Maiden (2008m) #3 – Clever Approach @ $1.75 – Bet Now. Lindsay Smith lines up the four-year-old gelding that is set to breakthrough for the win. He owns five placings from eight starts and he went close last time out.
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