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My 2019 Ky Derby Pedigree Analysis With The Ones I Am Considering Betting
Bloodlines is, IMO, one of the most important criteria to consider in every race. It can give you clues on which horse(s) will perform the best in sprints, middle distances, long distances, dirt, grass, all weather tracks. But using bloodlines alone will leave most to frustrating results, much like anything else you can think of using, including speed ratings, trainers stats, jockey stats, expert picks and everything else. However, when you take bloodlines, then try to figure out when a trainer has succeeded in getting his horse to peak in the race he has usually been pointing for months, and the jockeys who has followed most of the real contenders for most of their careers, then it will give you an advantage over most of the other handicappers in a game that is all about being prepared and willing to take educated chances. Most horses will not go much further than their pedigree will suggest time and time again. Neither will they perform their best when asked to go too short or even on a surface they not like as much as another surface. Trainers are creatures of habit and once they figure out the way they have had success in the past, they will revert back to that "system" over and over again. So while knowing which trainers has won a race such as the derby is important, it is more important to know if he has a horse entering that race that has follow his successful path before(including other prestigious races) and if he is peaking for that start, not the start or two before. All jockeys, like trainers and owners, wants to win the Ky Derby more than any other race. So they will spend months looking at or riding horses that they think has a possibility to give them their best shot at winning a race that is very elusive to most. So, again, while it is important to watch which top jockeys ends up landing on which horse, it simply implies he thinks, along with his agent, that this horse gives him the best shot of winning. So I will list every horse in this year's Ky Derby , with their pedigree, and my thoughts of their probability of succeeding at one and one quarter mile. While some of you will disagree with my assessment, that is what makes betting the derby so thrilling. But in the end, I do not and have never spread my money in order to say I cash a ticket. I am always trying and have been successful occasionally in narrowing down my choices to the bare minimum and pocketing life changing winnings. TACITUS-- Tapit- Close Hatches By First Defense. 3x4 To Unbridled, 4x4 To Seattle Slew, 4(C)x5(C) To Mr Prospector, 5x5 To Northern Dancer & Secretariat. Tapit has been a top sire for years. He ran in the 2004 Ky Derby and finished 9th to Smarty Jones in a muddy renewal of the derby. While Tapit has sired several Belmont S winners, he has never sired a winner of the Ky Derby. The Belmont S is usually a much slower paced race than the derby, so that is, IMO, the biggest factor to consider. Tacitus's dam, Close Hatches, won 9 of 14 lifetime starts, showed front running speed but her best distance was up to 1 1/16 mile. She won one G1 at 1 1/8 mile in four attempts(all three of her career off the board finishes was at this distance) when she was allowed to set a pace she was comfortable without any challenge and drew off. Tacitus's broodmare sire, First Defense, won the G1 Forego S at 7 furlongs for this biggest and only G1 win. In summation, I will take a stand against Tacitus, not only winning but also finishing in the top four. OMAHA BEACH--- War Front- Charming By Seeking The Gold. 3x4 To Rubiano, 5x3 To Mr Prospector, 5x5 To Native Dancer. War Front won 4 of 13 lifetime starts, all on dirt, though his pedigree suggested he would perform much better on grass. His biggest win came in the G2 Vosburgh H, and he was no factor in his only start at 1 1/8 mile. However, as his pedigree suggests, he is much better known as a sire of high class grass runners, especially up to a mile. Omaha Beach's dam, Charming, won 1 of 3 lifetime starts, and was pulled up and later retired in her only stakes try. His broodmare sire, Seeking The Gold, won 8 of 15 lifetime starts with his biggest win coming in the G1 Super Derby. However, he narrowly miss in the G1 Travers S on Saratoga's speed favoring track and his career finale saw him run second to heavy favorite Alysheba in the G1 BC Classic, though beaten soundly on an off track, a type of track he was superior to most. As a sire, he is best known was siting champion milers, both on dirt and grass. In summation, while I believe Omaha Beach would be no surprise for a minor award, I will not be using him at all. VEKOMA-- Candy Ride- Momma De Mona By Speightstown. 5x4 To Mr Prospector & Hoist The Flag. Candy Ride won all 6 of his lifetime start, including beating Medaglia D'Oro(who never won at 1 1/4 mile) in the G1 1 1/4 mile Pacific Classic in his career finale. As a sire, Candy Ride is known for siring high class front running speed but most are distance challenged at 1 1/4 mile until they turned 4 YO and/or he gets major help from the dam side. His best runner to run in the Ky Derby, Gun Runner, flatten out in the stretch while just holding on for third. Vekoma's dam, Mona De Momma, won the G1 7F Humana Distaff for her biggest stakes score but did so with a late kick. Vekoma's broodmare sire, Speightstown, won 10 of 16 lifetime races, all at 6 or 7 furlongs. However, he was injured twice in his four year career, required long layoffs of 1 1/2 year and nearly a year, so his connections probably did not want to risk trying him at middle distance. As a sire, while most of his runners perform best sprinting, he has sire a few to win at the 1 1/4 mile, including Golden Ticket, who dead heat for the win in the 2012 G1 Travers S with Alpha and Haynesfield, who beat Blame in the 2010 G1 Jockey Club Gold Cup.In summation, while I will probably pass on using him, he could be one that hangs around and nabs a minor reward. PLUS QUE PARFAIT- Point Of Entry- Belvedera By Awesome Again. 4(C)x5(C) To His Majesty, 4x5 To Mr Prospector. Point Of Entry won 9 of 18 lifetime starts and is a perfect example of what I have suggested over and over about how a horse's pedigree can tip you to live longshots. He became his career on dirt and won 2 of his first 9 starts, showing flashes but never quite being able to put it all together. His trainer, Shug McGaughey, finally decided maybe he would do better on grass where he would go on to win his last 7 of 9 starts, most in G1 competion. His 2 losses were both in the G1 BC Turf, where he finished 2nd, beaten a 1/2 length and returned the next year to run 4th, beaten 1 3/4 length in his first start back after returning from an injury, suffered five months before hand. Plus Que Parfait's dam, Belvedera, finished last in her only lifetime start at Charles Town. However, his broodmare sire, Awesome Again, won 9 of 12 lifetime starts, including the G1 BC Classic in his career finale. His best known son is Ghostzapper, a 1/2 brother to City Zip and broodmare sire of 2018 TC Winner, Justify. In summary, while he is one of the better bred horse in this year's field, he has thus far under performed and/or seems a cut below the main contenders, so I will probably pass. ROADSTER-- Quality Road- Ghost Dancing By Silver Ghost. 4x3 To Mr Prospector, 5(C)x5(C)x4(F) To Raise A Native, 5(F)x5(F) To Hail To Reason. Quality Road won 8 of 13 lifetime starts, including the G1 Florida Derby and was the expected favorite for the 2009 Ky Derby before suffering an injury in a workout while preparing for that start and was declared(scratched) from the race. He has been an above average sire since starting his stallion career and here is his latest top runner. Roadster's Dam, Ghost Dancing, won 5 of 9 lifetime starts but was not tested against top runners. His broodmare sire, Silver Ghost, won 3 of 6 lifetime starts, none against top runners though he was fast in sprints. Silver Ghost sired some useful middle distance runners on dirt, but I have had the most success with him using his daughters in long distances grass runners pedigrees. In summary, Roadster has a pedigree that could conceivably win the derby and it will be a matter of if he has enough experience and class to pull it off. My guess is he does not and I will try using others but is the one I am most concerned about leaving out of my bets. BY MY STANDARDS-- Goldencents- A Jealous Woman By Muqtarib. 5x4 To Mr Prospector, 5(F)X5(F) To Secretariat & Northern Dancer. Goldencents won 7 of 18 lifetime starts, including the G1 Santa Anita Derby and was very fast but did a steady fade in that year's Ky Derby after not being able to get near the early lead. His best distance was a mile and he won 2 runnings of the BC Dirt Mile to put an exclamation point on that statement. By My Standards's dam, A Jealous Woman, won 8 of 25 lifetime starts, including 2 non graded stakes at SA at 1 mile on grass and a 2nd in the G2 Goldikova S, all in fast times for that surface. His broodmare sire, Muqtarib, won 3 of 15 lifetime starts, including the G2 Richmond S in England. In summary, By My Standards simply is not one I will waste any money on. MAXIMUM SECURITY-- New Year's Day- Lil Indy By Anasheed. 5(C)x4(F)x5(F) To Northern Dancer. New Year's Day won 2 of 3 lifetime starts, including the 2013 G1 BC Juvenile Dirt in his final start with a late run. This is his first crop to race but he has some pedigree that suggest distance will not be a problem. Maximum Security's dam, Lil Indy, won 2 of 19 lifetime starts. His broodmare sire, Anasheed, is a 3/4 brother to Mineshaft but won only 2 of 15 lifetime starts. In summary, there are two ways to look at his chances. First, I like horses that did not have to use all their energy winning or finishing their final prep. In the Fla Derby, he looked like he had something to run with him early but that horse turned out to be over-hyped. Second, he got to walk the dog, setting an extremely slow pace and then sprinting home the last 4 furlongs which I usually bet against next out. My choice will be to make this one beat me and if he does, it is time to move on to another race. GAME WINNER-- Candy Ride- Indyan Giving By A.P. Indy. 5x5 To Mr Prospector. Candy Ride(see Vekoma above). Indyan Giving was unraced but her dam, Fleet Indian, won 13 of 19 lifetime starts but spent most of her career beating up on mediocre competition. After winning 2 G1s, she was pulled up in her final career start and did not finish the race in the G1 BC Distaff as the favorite. Game Winner's broodmare sire, A.P. Indy, won the G1 Belmont S and that year's BC Classic after scratching from the Ky Derby the morning of the race with a minor injury. In summary, Game Winner spent most of the early part of this year on my watch list and was still there until his run in the SA Derby. I know he was wide throughout(4 wide is not a good enough excuse, at least for me)to see him shorten stride in deep stretch which was the only reason Roadster caught him. Now he needs to go another 1/8 mile. Not for me against these. CODE OF HONOR-- Noble Mission- Reunited By Dixie Union. 4(C)x5(C)x4(F) To Norther Dancer, 5x4 To Blushing Groom, 5x5 To Mr Prospector. Noble Mission is a full brother to Frankel and won 9 of 21 career starts. However, all his starts was on grass in Europe where he was his best at 1 1/8 mile but running style, distance and even class does not necessarily transform into success or failure on dirt. Code Of Honor's dam, Reunited, won 5 of 10 lifetime starts with the 6 furlongs G3 Thoroughbred Club Of America S being her only graded stakes win. His broodmare sire, Dixie Union, won 7 of 12 lifetime starts with the G1 Haskell S being his longest win at 1 1/8 mile. However, Dixie Union is sire of 2012 Belmont S winner, Union Rags. In summary, I believe his Florida Derby race is a throwout simply because the pace was slower than most high claimers would be expected to run, much less G1 competition. His run in last year's Champagne S when 2nd is as good as anyone in this field, IMO, and there is a reason John Velasquez chose him over Pletcher's horse. He simply thinks he has a better chance to win with this horse. That said, I am still undecided if I will use him, but he is on my short list to consider. HAIKAL-- Daaher- Sablah By Distorted Humor. 5(C)x4(F)x4(F) To Mr Prospector. 5x5 To Northern Dancer & Buckpasser. Daaher won 4 of 9 lifetime starts with his biggest win in the G1 Cigar Mile H. Daaher's sire was Awesome Again, who won the BC Classic at 1 1/4 miles and also sired a BC Classic winner in Ghostzapper. Haikal's dam, Sablah was unraced. His broodmare sire, Distorted Humor, won 8 of 23 lifetimes starts including a pair of G2s 7 furlongs sprints at CD And Keeneland. Distorted Humor also was sire of 2003 Ky Derby and Preakness winner, Funny Cide. One more piece of his pedigree worth mentioning is Haikal's 3rd dam, Shadayid, ran 3rd in the 1 1/2 mile Epsom Oaks and spent the rest of her career mostly taking on the boys and running well against them. In summary, Haikal will be one of my top two choices, depending on the post position draw. And I will give you the reason why I like him. I mentioned earlier that trainers were creatures of habit. They figure out what works for them and then try to set up their other horses to follow the same path. McLaughin is 0-9 in his attempts to win the Ky Derby with one second place finisher. That second place finish occurred in 2005 when he brought a confirmed sprinter bloodlines wise, turned him into an off the pace type, spaced his races out and on paper, he looked to have no chance. Closing Argument used what he was taught to perfection and when he caught Afleet Alex at the wire, he costed me by far the biggest payday I will ever have an opportunity to collect on. If you look up Closing Argument and Haikal, you will see a very similar pattern, including both ran 3rd in their final prep. I let a one million dollar payoff get away from me that I really liked, but I do not plan on letting another get away, especially when the same trainer could be involved. HAIKAL WILL BE WITHDRAWN FROM THE KY DERBY PER HIS TRAINER MCLAUGHLIN. IMPROBABLE-- City Zip- Rare Event By A.P. Indy. 4x5 To Blushing Groom. City Zip won 9 of 23 lifetime starts, all sprints. However, he is a 1/2 to Ghostzapper. Improbable's dam, Rare Event, won 4 of 14 lifetime starts, all condition races and was unplaced in 5 stakes tries, mostly on grass. Improbable's broodmare sire, A.P. Indy, simply loved to run and he got better as the distances stretched out. And since I learned that the dam is as important as the sire in determining how far any horse wants to go, this will make him eligible to win as she not only has A.P. Indy on top but her dam(2nd dam of Improbable) is a 1/2 sister to Hard Spun, second in the 2007 Ky Derby after setting the pace. Also, being inbred 4x5 to Blushing Groom gives you another factor to consider. Blushing Groom had a heart not seen in most thoroughbreds and would always find more when challenged. And he passed this heart on to most of his foals. His best siring dirt son, Rahy, is sire of Serena's Song and broodmare sire of Giant's Causeway. In summary, my biggest concern with him is his jockey may ask him to go too early and not save enough for the stretch run. But Irad is known for leaving something in the tank for the stretch drive. Plus, since Baffert started sending horses to Arkansas, the one he thinks has the best shot to win ends up there. IMO, with Justify last year, he chose the race he thought would be easier to win and he need the win points more than place or show points to be sure he qualified. Baffert usually does not make mistakes if he has the horse. You have to beat him. He knows as much as anyone that SA dirt track results is usually speed favoring & track aided. His best shot to tied the all time record for wins in the Ky Derby by one trainer with 6. WAR OF WILL-- War Front- Visions Of Clarity By Sadler's Wells. 3(C)x3(F)x5(F) To Norther Dancer, 4x5 To Forli, 5(F)x5(F) To Lalun. Last seen getting crushed as the heavy favorite in the La Derby. But he had a legit excuse as he not only lost action but easily could had hyper extended a tendon. So, IMO, that race is a toss and he deserves another try. Since then, he is working like a horse on a mission and his bloodlines is screaming "do not toss". Everyone knows about Northern Dancer, but few knows about the two others who repeats in his pedigree. First, the filly Lalun was dam of Sadler's Wells broodmare sire Bold Reason, who ran 3rd in the 1971 Ky Derby, 5th In the Preakness and third in the Belmont S. Lalun is also dam of Never Bend, who also never bend and he was a refused to quit front runner who ran 2nd in the 1961 Ky Derby(to a late runner) after battling with and putting away two unbeaten horses and 3rd in the Preakness(behind the Ky Derby favorite and the Derby winner). He also was a top sire in Europe's distances bloodlines before he was overtaken by none other than Sadler's Wells. Forli, who appears 4x5 in War Of Will bloodlines, won his first 8 races in Argentina and then purchased by Arthur Hancock Jr to stand in the U.S. His best known son, Forego, was unraced at 2 YO and entered the Ky Derby as an outsider without a stakes win but finished 4th to none other than Secretariat. He would go on to be named Champion Handicapper Horse for 4 straight years, carrying as much as 137 lbs and winning 34 times in 57 lifetime starts. Forli's daughter, Special, was the dam of Northern Dancer's son, Nureyev and 2nd dam of the aforementioned Sadler's Wells. Another Forli's daughter, Tuerta, was dam of 1984 Ky Derby and Belmont S winner, Swale. In summary, while is last leads a big question mark(in most handicappers eyes), do you want to bet against the real speed if he has recovered? Your choice, but he will be included , especially underneath, on my tickets. His trainer, Mark Casse, has shown you his intentions and that is go for the lead to get a good position, then maybe rate behind battling front runners until given the cue to go entering the stretch, which is what wins most Ky Derbies. The main reason no one has won from the one hole since Ferdinand in 1986 is most simply did not have enough speed to get a good early position. This one does and if he breaks on cue, he will be gone before the others knows what hit them. Bloodlines is there and so is the front running speed with a jockey that rides front runners well. LONG RANGE TODDY-- Take Charge Indy- Pleasant Song By Unbridled's Song. 4(C)x5(C)x5(F) To Secretariat, 5x4 To Fappiano, 5(F)x5(F) To Northern Dancer. His sire, Take Charge Indy won the G1 Florida Derby, but finished 19 of 20th in the Ky Derby, beaten 50 lengths and beating only a UAE Derby winner who was pulled up and did not finished. His, broodmare sire, Unbridled's Song, also won the 1996 Florida Derby and G1 Wood Memorial, then open a clear lead in the Ky Derby before hitting that invisible wall that so many has found at the 1/8 pole and fading to fifth. In summary, while Long Range Toddy has a little more help underneath than his sire and broodmare sire, I simply believe he has peaked and will be no factor in this year's derby. Pass for me! TAX-- Arch- Toll By Giant's Causeway. 3x5 To Roberto, 4(C)x4(F)x 5(F) To Northern Dancer, 5(F)x5(F) To Secretariat. Tax's sire, Arch, biggest win came in the G1 Super Derby, where he beat a lackluster field after that race had lost most of its prestige. He would finish 9 of 10 in the G1 BC Classic, beating only a horse that was pulled up and did not finish in his only other G1 effort. Arch, as a sire, is best known for siring horses that found 1 1/4 miles just beyond their reach, though he is broodmare sire of 2012 Ky Derby & Preakness winner, I'll Have Another, but he had major help underneath. Tax's broodmare sire, Giant's Causeway, won 9 of 13 lifetime races, but finished 2nd beaten a neck, by Tiznow, in his only race on dirt with no more than 1 1/2 lengths separated the top two throughout. A Classic! Tax's dam, Toll, traces through her dam line back to La Troienne, considered by most to be the most influential dam in U.S. history. In summary, Tax is certainly bred to get the distance and would be no surprise, especially underneath, but I prefer others more. His trainer, Danny Gargan, is looking for his first G1 win and he is picking a tough spot to accomplish that feat, though he wins at 22 % and has an in the money % of 53. Not bad stats. COUNTRY HOUSE--- Looking At Lucky- Quake Lake By War Chant. Country House's sire, Looking At Lucky, won 9 of 13 lifetime starts, with his only two off the board finishes was in the Ky Derby in the slop, where he broke from the dreaded 1 Post, was boxed in throughout and never got to make a serious run until it was too late and his career finale, in the BC Classic, when 4th behind Blame and Zenyatta, though he got sick one week before that start and only ran because Baffert & the owners had announced he was retiring after that race. Looking At Lucky's sire, Smart Strike, is also sire of Curlin. Country House's broodmare sire, War Chant, won 5 of 7 lifetime starts, including the BC Turf Mile in his career finale. His only off the board finish is his career came in the 2000 Ky Derby when he finished 9th after running 2nd in the Santa Anita Derby. Most of Country House's underneath help topped out at 1 1/8 miles. In summary, if the pace is extremely fast, he will have a chance to get a piece underneath, but I doubt if the pace will be as fast as he will need. I have seen bigger shockers to hit the board in the derby, but I will pass. CUTTING HUMOR-- First Samurai- Pun By Pulpit. 4(C)x5(C) To Northern Dancer, 5(C)x4(F)x5(F) To Mr Prospector, 5x5 To Secretariat. His sire, First Samurai, won 5 of 8 lifetime starts, including two G1s as a 2 YO(Hopeful S & Champagne S), then won the G2 Fountain Of Youth via DQ at 3 but was caught late in that race by Corinthian, but the unofficial winner impeded the 3rd place finisher, costing him the win. In his next start, First Samurai, finished fifth and was no factor in the Blue Grass S, his only unplacing of his career. First Samurai has bred a mixture of sprinters/ milers with his best son, Lea, finding 1 1/8 miles was his limit in top company. Cutting Humor's broodmare sire, Pulpit, won 4 of 6 lifetime starts, including 2 G2 wins in the Fountain Of Youth in a good time of 141 4/5 for a 1/16 miles and the Blue Grass S but also finished 2nd in the G1 Florida Derby. However, in the Ky Derby, he alternated the lead with Free House for the first mile before fading readily in the stretch to finish 4th, beaten 7 lengths by Silver Charm and was retired after that effort. While he spent most of his career siring milers/ middle distance type horse, he is most famous as sire of Tapit(who got a lot of help from his dam) and Lucky Pulpit, sire of 2014 Ky Derby & Preakness winner, California Chrome(also with major help from the dam line). Interesting though,Cutting Humor has some serious mud influences in his 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5th dam sires. In summary, I will not use this horse in any of my bets, simply because he does not have enough top runners to help him negotiate 1 1/4 mile. While the derby always seems to have one real outsider to finish 3rd or 4th, I would rather consider one who will be trying to pick up the pieces in deep stretch. WIN WIN WIN-- Hat Trick- Miss Smarty Pants By Smarty Jones. 5(F)x5(F) To Mr Prospector. His sire, Hat Trick, was an all or nothing miler while spending his entire career in Japan. But his sire, Sunday Silence, won the 1989 Ky Derby in the mud, and came back to out duel Easy Goer in the Preakness in one of the best and thrilling duels ever, before running 2nd to that rival in the Belmont S by 8 lengths. However, in that years BC Classic, he again managed to beat Easy Goer to make it 3 wins in their 4 meetings. Also, as a sire, he was sold to Japan interests for $10 million and led the sire list by far in every year he was at stud. His son, Deep Impact, took over where he left off and has led the sire list almost every year since. Win Win Win's broodmare sire, Smarty Jones, won 8 of 9 lifetime starts, including a muddy renewal of the 2004 Ky Derby and suffered his only career defeat in that year's Belmont S, while finishing second. However, Win Win Win is the only horse in this year's field that has 5 different Ky Derby winners showing in his 5 generation pedigree(Sunday Silence and Smarty Jones(see above), Unbridled(winner of 1990 Ky Derby and 2nd in Preakness), Foolish Pleasure(winner of the 1975 Ky Derby and 2nd in both the Preakness & Belmont S) and Cannonade(winner of the 1974 Ky Derby and he sports the same sire(Bold Bidder) as 1979 Ky Derby & Preakness winner, Spectacular Bid. Win Win Win also has 4 Belmont winners showing that does not include any of the above(Damascus who finished 3rd in the 1967 Ky Derby and then won both the Preakness & Belmont S. His sire, Sword Dancer, was second in both the 1959 Ky Derby & Preakness, before winning the Belmont S on a muddy track). Arts And Letters was second in both the 1969 Ky Derby & Preakness before winning the Belmont S and denying Majestic Prince a TC sweep) and Caveat(who ean 3rd in the 1984 Ky Derby and then returned to win the Belmont S, beating the famous Slew O' Gold by 4 1/2 lengths going away. In summary, I have not seen this many Ky Derby, Preakness and Belmont winners in one's pedigree in my more than 40 years of studying bloodlines and he will be included in all my bets, especially since Haikal may be a late scratch. GRAY MAGICIAN-- Graydar- Burg Berg By Johannesberg. 5(C)x5(C)x4(F)x5(F) To Mr Prospector. His sire, Graydar, won 5 of 6 career starts, including the G1 Donn H and G2 New Orleans H, both at 1 1/8 mile, both in gate to wire fashion and beating Flat Out both times, by 8 and 4 lengths, respectively. He finished his career winning the G2 Kelso H, also in gate to wire fashion completing the mile in 134.08. Gray Magician's dam, Burg Berg, spent her career racing in Southern California, winning the non graded Swingtime S At 1 mile on grass but also finishing 2nd in the G2 Royal Heroine S, also at 1 mile on grass. However, Gray Magician is a full brother to last year's G3 Robert B Lewis winner, Lombo, who then came back and showed the way in the G2 San Felipe S for 6 furlongs before McKinzie put him away. Their broodmare sire, Johannesburg, won his first 7 career starts, including the BC Juvenile Dirt in 2001 and then came back in the 2002 Ky Derby, and finished an even 8th, but broke from the dreaded 1 post and trapped inside, off 1 one mile prep in Europe as a 3 YO on grass. However, he is most famous known as sire of Scat Daddy. In summary, his effort in the UAE Derby when 2nd could be a signal he is starting to figure out the game as he was with the pace throughout, lost a little ground when in traffic, but when cleared he finished with a rush. I will caution you before you toss him, that he is the first runner heading into the derby that has worked not once, but twice at San Luis Rey Training Center and both works indicates he is ready. The problem with most UAE runners is they return(or ship over) and trainers will usually use caution and not work them, but expect them to perform in the biggest race against the best horses America has to offer being ill prepared. Not Peter Miller and he has called on Drayden Van Dyke to see it through. My longshot special underneath. SPINOFF--- Hard Spun- Zaftig By Gone West. 5x4 To Raise A Native, 5x5 To Native Dancer. His sire, Hard Spun, ran 2nd in the 2007 Ky Derby to Street Sense, setting all the pace, 3rd in the Preakness to Curlin, and 4th in the Belmont S to Rags To Riches and Curlin. He also ran 2nd to Curlin, in that year's BC Classic, contested on one of the sloppiest track you will ever see. Spinoff's dam, Zaftig, won the G1 Acorn S at 1 mile but also ran third in the first running of the 7 furlongs Listed BC F&M Sprint, ran in 119.90, on the then SA all weather track. Spinoff's broodmare sire, Gone West, was a miler during his racing career and was a champion miler sire, especially on grass and in Europe. His best dirt son, Came Home, went into the 2002 Ky Derby highly regarded with 6 wins in 7 lifetime starts but found the 1 1/4 mile distance a little longer than he liked, though he would later win the G1 Pacific Classic at 1 1/4 miles on speed favoring Del Mar race track. In summary, I simply believe he will not get this distance and he managed to hang around in the La Derby because the best pace type horse did not produce his best run. So, I will pass, mostly because there is plenty of speed that I believe will make him work. MASTER FENCER--- Just A Way- Sexy Samurai By Deputy Minister. 5x5 To Nearctic. His Sire, Just A Way, is a grand son of Sunday Silence and while I know very little about Japan's racing, he did run second in the Japan Cup. However, his sire is Heart's Way, who also ran 2nd in the Japan Cup but is best known in the U.S. as sire of Yoshida. Master Fencer's broodmare sire, Deputy Minister found 1 1/16 mile to be his best distance but was considered an early favorite for the 1982 Ky Derby before he was taken off the trail after 2 sub par efforts to begin his 3 YO season. As a sire, though, he is known for the fillies he sired including Go For Wand, Open Mind, Better Than Honour and colts Awesome Again, Touch Gold and Dehere. In summary, while Master Fencer is well bred and has all U.S. breeding throughout, I watched both of his preps and he came from last with a solid late kick to finish 4th, then 2nd. However, when he finished 2nd, he looked rank throughout(to me) and that does not usually end well in their next start. Now facing better horses and with one very slow work since arriving, I will have to pass on him. BODEXPRESS--- Bodemeister- Pied A Terre By City Zip. 5x4 To Mr Prospector, 5(C)x5(C) To Northern Dancer, 5x5 To In Reality, 5(F)x5(F) To Raise A Native. His sire, Bodemeister, won the G1 Arkansas Derby before running 2nd in both the Ky Derby & Preakness, all while prominent throughout. However, his pedigree literally screams late runner and I feel his best foals will come when trainers decides to let them rate. It has already happen with several of his foals and they have responded with a late kick like Empire Maker, A.P Indy and Roberto, all showing in his lineage. Bodexpress broodmare sire, City Zip, was best at sprint distances and most of his foals also is better at sprints on dirt and up to a mile on grass. In summary, I will not use this horse on any of my tickets. This is my pedigree summary for the 2019 Ky Derby. I have not decided if I will bet this race, simply because I will wait until I get a better feel of what the track conditions will be. I know rain is expected, but the weather forecast is often wrong, especially because rain will stop often before reaching the area suggested because the system will often weaken and break up or change directions before arriving. Where I live we have been expecting heavy rain for two days and it arrived this morning, sprinkled less than .01 of 1 inch and was gone in 15 minutes, even though the radar showed a heavy band of rain less than 40 miles away. If I choose to bet this race, all my tickets will reflect who I like best from the ones I am considering and I do not change my mind. I have never made any real money by betting horses I do not really like and bet only because the track conditions changes.
I am going to like a lot of horses that will get good odds in today's races. You can use your own judgement whether you will want to take a risk or not, but that is really my best game. I struggle the most when I try to put too many favorites in the mix or when the races results in a lot of favorites doing what they are supposed to do. While I am use to waiting until my horses runs the way I expect them to, I can also understand others who might get impatient. The rewards always outweighs the frustration but it took me years to figure that part out. And it will anyone else also that plays the races the way I do. But value is what will eventually determine whether you win or lose over the long run, another fact that I spent years before I realized it. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1st Race: 7)Contendress(9-2) Has made two starts, first race tried to contest the early pace and faded. 2nd race, laid off the pace and tried to make up late ground but finished fairly even. Now adds blinkers and looks fast enough to outbreak the favorites if the blinkers helps. The unknown is the other first time starters who shows speed in their works. Her sire, Competitive Edge, a son of Ky Derby winner Super Saver, broke his maiden in his first start, in wire to wire fashion finishing clear by 10+ lengths at Saratoga in 109 4/5. 4)Mysteriously(8-1) First time starter that has some good works for debut. Both sire, Tiznow and broodmare sire, Bernardini, were better in middle distance races, her 2nd dam, Burmilla, a daughter of Storm Cat, won her first two starts, both at 6 furlongs and both in 110 flat at two different tracks. With her, the break will be the key. 3)Josephine Baker(9-5) has made one start and set an uncontested pace but faded when challenged. However, her trainer is leading the trainer standing comfortably this year and will have to include. Also will run with lasix for the first time in her 2nd start and both her works since were more likely maintenance breezes to keep her fit. 1)Chez Paree(3-1) Has made one start and contested the pace throughout but could not get by the wire to wire winner while clear of the rest. Two works since that effort, including her last which suggests she should take a step forward. Broodmare sire, Defrere, was always overshadowed by his full brother, Dehere, a champion 2 YO Colt and sire of Take Charge Lady, among others, but both were known for siring foals that had high speed. Definitely not out of it, but will have more front running speed to contend with. Bets: $5 Ex Box 4-7($10), $1 Tri Box 3-4-7($6), .10 Super Box 1-3-4-7(2.40), $1 Super Key 7 with 1-3-4 with 1-3-4 with 1-3-4($6). Total Risk $24.40. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 2nd Race: 6)Lyman(20-1) has made one start and trailed the field. However, he tossed his head at the start, was leaned on in the early stages by the runaway winner and simply gave others to much of a head start, especially in a race that was that quick. Now two more works since, one easy and the other that shows he has some fronting speed. A better break and a cleaner trip should put him over the top. 1)High Heater(6-1) First time starter. Trainer is 10% lifetime winning trainer and normally prepares his trainees with a series of slow works. To me, that six furlong work just before his first effort should give him plenty of wind. High Heater has shown flashes of speed in a couple of his works and his bloodlines suggests he should be high speed. His sire, Creative Cause, broke his maiden in his debut at the old Hollywood Park in 56 4/5 seconds for five furlongs and took the Best Pal S in his 2nd start in a 115 3/5 for 6 1/2 furlongs. 5)Top Justice(12-1) Another first time starter. He has some good works for his debut, including a 6 furlong work like my second choice that should help. While his trainer has a 8% lifetime winning percentage in his ninth year as a trainer, he trains mostly cheap stock and spots them aggressively, and has banked more than $7M without a big name runner. Top Justice sire, Danza won a maiden race in his first start, the Arkansas Derby in his 4th career start and finished 3rd to California Chrome in the 2014 Ky Derby, his career finale. 9)Fast Dreamer(9-2)Another first time starter. He also has some good works and bloodlines. However, trainer stop on him for almost a month before putting in his two best work for his first start. But the stoppage as he was approaching being ready always raises a red flag, because it usually indicates a minor ailment or sickness, so I will include underneath mostly. Bets: $10 WP 6($20), $5 Ex Box 1-6($10), $1 Tri Box 1-5-6($6), .10 Super Box 1-5-6-9($2.40), .50 Super Key 6 with 1-5-9 with 1-5-9 with 1-5-9($3). Total Risk $41.40. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 3rd Race: 6)Detour(15-1) She has made for starts and has not placed in any. However, her trainer has been trying to get her back on grass since her first effort and looks like he might get that opportunity here. Her last two was switched to the AWT which is probably not the surface she wants. Her sire, Bellamy Road, smashed the stakes record in the 2005 Wood Memorial and came 1/5 second off Riva Ridge's track record set when he was 4 YO in 1973. Detour's female family has quite a bit of grass influence. Three works since her last effort for a trainer who has more success on grass than the AWT. 3)Just A Look(12-1) First time starter that has some good works and nice bloodlines for grass. Dam won 3 of 7 lifetime starts, all three on grass, including a listed stakes, with a late kick in Southern California. While her works has been a little inconsistent for my taste, her trainer will sneak a live one through, on occasion. 7)Meghan(5-1) She has made 4 lifetime starts, with one third her only board finish. However, she has had the same problem as my top choice, in that her trainer has tried to get her back on grass after her first effort, and in fact, this makes the four race in a row that they faced each other. While she has beaten my top choice all three times, it was by a nose, nose and 1/4 length, on surfaces she should have had a small advantage on. 5)Quality Too Spare(6-1) She has made three starts, with a third in her last her best effort. While I normally try to find a trainer who has a little more success than this one(no wins yet), she has enough speed to clear early and could hang on for a minor reward, depending on what how bad the others might fade. Bets: $10 WP 6($20), Ex Box 3-6($10), $1 Tri Box 3-6-7($6), .10 Super Box 3-5-6-7($2.40), .50 Super Key 6 with 3-5-7 with 3-5-7 with 3-5-7($3). Total Risk $41.40. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 4th Race: 7)Blue Sky Kowboy(20-1) Has made 3 starts this year after an seven month break. Won his 2nd start, though it was restricted to state bred and was his first other than grass win and then ran poor against in a state bred stakes race, also moved to the AWT from grass. Though his recent stats shows otherwise, trainer has more than held his own with grass runners throughout his career. Just believe he is ready to give his best effort this year. 6)My Bariley(4-1) Has made 4 starts since his last winning effort, with two against graded stakes horse and another in a stakes which he has previously won. Also holds a recent class edge against these with a good work since his last effort. The one to beat. 8)Cuestion De Tempo(5-1) Has made 4 starts since an eight month break, with his last arguably the best effort since he returned. He has recorded two good works since his last and a mile fits him better than others in here. 3)Marzo(9-2) Has made 5 starts this year, winning his fourth start as an odds on favorite, most likely because others seen his yearling purchase price of $1M. However, that buyer(Coolmore) has long decided he did not have the ability they originally thought he had and decided to cut their losses and move on for $35K. That win was in a conditioned allowance, so I doubt he can do much better than a minor share, though his trainer has turned around the fortunes of several horses. This, so far, does not look like one of those times, though. Bets: $10 WP 7($20), $5 Ex Box 6-7($10), $1 Tri Box 6-7-8($6), $3 Tri Key 6-7 with 6-7 with 8($6), .10 Super Box 3-6-7-8($2.40). Total Risk $44.40. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 5th Race: 8)Jazz Channel(5-1) Made one start on AWT and showed speed to top of stretch before tiring slightly. Now switches to grass which is the surface she should prefer most. One maintenance work since that effort should help make the forward move necessary to compete in this race. Her sire, English Channel, ran his best races on grass and most of his foals seems to like grass much better than AWTs or dirt. Her broodmare sire, Bernardini is better known for his abilities on dirt and his best foals has followed suit, though a few had shown they like the grass more. 9)Summer Day(12-1) First time starter. Has the workout pattern that has proven most beneficial to me. Both her sire, Sky Mesa, and her broodmare sire, Empire Maker, were G1 winners on dirt but never tried the grass. However, both their pedigrees suggests they could possibly have been even better on that surface, judging by the foals they have produce. Trainer normally only wins a few every year from limited runners, but Summer Day's 2nd dam, G3 SW Summer Mis, was his top runner and her daughter, Summer Again, spent her career in Illinois under his care, though neither was tried on grass. 5)Fall Moon(12-1) First time starter. Also has the workout pattern that seems to work best, working consistently every 7 days. Her sire, Lea, was a G1 SW on dirt and a G3 SW and G1 Placed on grass. However, he has Giant's Causeway and Galileo cross, so both surfaces have suited him. Broodmare sire, Quality Road, also was a G1 SW on dirt but his foals have performed well on both, especially around the mile distances. 2)Aunt Dorothy(9-2) Made one start and finished third. Pedigree fits nicely against these. One work since that effort which was a little too fast for my liking, but trainer tends to make right call more often than not, especially for grass. About a second slower and would have been my second choice and biggest perceived threat to my top choice. Bets: $10 WP 8($20), $5 Ex Box 8-9($10), $1 Tri Box 5-8-9($6), .10 Super Box 2-5-8-9($2.40), $1 Super Key 8 With 2-5-9 with 2-5-9 with 2-5-9. Total Risk $44.40. ------------------------------------------------------------------- 6th Race: 1)Buttered Noodles(8-1) Has made one start. Tracked front runners, made a bid for the lead at the half then flatten out and faded on the AWT. Has two good works, including a 6 furlong work that is rarely seen in racing today, but used to be an angle as effective as first time lasix when a vet had to determine if bleeding occurred during a race or workout. Buttered Noodles's sire is City Zip, sire of known sprinters/milers on all surfaces. His dam, Flowerbomb, is 1/2 sister to Materiality and My Miss Sophia. She won twice in 14 starts, both at 1 1/16 mile, an AWT maiden race and N/W 2 allowance on grass. Recklessness(15-1) Has made one start. Broke slowly and pick up horses while not making a dent into the runaway winner margin but just missed catching the runner up. Even good works before that effort proved futile. No works since but returns in 2 weeks, so another work would have been a little too much. A better start is expected. His sire, Midshipman, won the G1 Del Mar Futurity & G1 BC Juvenile Dirt, beating Pioneerof The Nile in the latter while landing 2 YO Champion Colt Award and is a 1/2 brother to the dam of Frosted. His dam made one start on grass and like her son, broke slowly and made up a little ground. 2nd dam won 5 of 18 starts, all at mid distances on dirt including a small stakes race. 9)Mister Not Funny(12-1) Made one start in the same race as my top choice. His works before that effort signaled a mid pack finish was most likely and that is where he finished after break slowly and waiting until the stretch to give his best effort, in a distance much to short and likely not best surface either. He goes with first time lasix in here and a surface and distance that he should perform better in, off two similar works as before his first effort. Still, improvement is expected and could surprise. 7)The Gray Blur(5-1) Made one start and exits out of the race as two of my other choices in here, which I normally will not even consider putting that many together from same effort. However, he ran an even race and basically was eliminated at the start with a less than ideal break for him. His sire, Fast Anna, hails from the same sire line(El Prado) and dam line(Kitten's First) as Kitten's Joy. The Gray Blur's dam line will also help him on this surface. Two works, including a solid one and the addition of blinkers could be all he needs to take this field from gate to wire. Beware! Bets: $10 WP 1($20), $5 Ex Box 1-3($10), $1 Tri Box 1-3-9($6), $3 Tri Key 1 with 3-9 with 3-9($6), .10 Super Box 1-3-7-9($2.40), .50 Super Key 1 with 3-7-9 with 3-7-9 with 3-7-9($3). Total Risk $47.40. --------------------------------------------------------------------- 7th Race: 4)Rustic Rick(30-1) He returned from a 7 month break, took a few races to get in his best form and then sprung a major upset two starts back in his fourth effort since his return. Has three lifetime efforts on grass, all at one mile, but was asked to face much too tough in his last in his first start against winner. This will be his first time getting a firm turf with competition that simply matches his ability at best. His sire, Country Day, won several sprint grass stakes but also finished 2nd in the 2011 BC Turf Sprint. Dam, Ric Rac, won 4 of 19 lifetime starts, all 4 on grass at either a mile or 1 1/16 mile. No works since his first effort against winners, but returns in two weeks. 2)Jackfruit(20-1) Also broke his maiden 2 back on the AWT and then entered against winners in the same type class level in next. But he finally gets the surface he was really bred for, though he takes a couple steps up in class. His sire, Get Stormy, was a multiple G1 SW, earning more than $1.6M in his racing career. Dam, Ride 'Em Cowgirl, won her only stakes in an off the turf on the AWT, but also ran 2nd in a grass stakes race. This family traces much deeper than these two, but this is enough to let me come to my decision on whether to include or not. 12)Bird(30-1) Made one start and broke his maiden in same class as my 2nd choice. He has a pedigree that suggests he will perform pretty good on grass also, though not as close up in his bloodlines as my choice above him. Sire, Gio Ponti, was a multiple G1 SW on grass and two time grass champion in the U.S. Bird's 3rd dam, Oh What A Dance, produced Heavenly Prize, a G! champion herself and producer of Pure Prize and Good Reward, both foals of Storm Cat and better known for their grass runners. 3)True Loyalty(6-1) He will be working on his fourth start since a 10 month break, with improvement noted in his last. This is one of my angle horse that I will normally not bet against, but I like the others as good or better. While he has no works since his last and comes into this race off a three week break, that is borderline for me to consider him. Exercise helps horses first to get in racing shape and then to maintain that fitness. This will be one race that I will be sure to box a dime superfecta and "waste" $2.40. It this type of payoff potential that I have always mentioned over and over. The potential for a dime super returning $7-8K makes it a bet I will not let pass me by, but others can. Bets: $10 WP 4($20), $5 Ex Box 2-4($10), $1 Tri Box 2-4-12($6), .10 Super Box 2-3-4-12($2.40), $1 Super Key 4 with 2-3-12 with 2-3-12 with 2-3-12($6). Total Risk $44.40. --------------------------------------------------------------- 8th Race: 2)Dazzling Truths(20-1) Made four starts this year with a third his best effort. Here is a horse that actually proves what wotks can do to your fitness and form. His workouts pattern has been spotty and ineffective. 2 works in 23 days to prepare for first start in almost 5 months. Then wheeled back in 9 days and 18 days, which is ok but on outer edge of moving a horse forward. Then a 53 day layoff with 2 works a month apart and he ran flat. So the only reason I will use him in here is most seems like they would rather sprint and he wheels back yet again in 11 days, which is enough time to recuperate but still have what conditioning he got from his last effort left. Edge in a wide open field. 4)Can't Hide From Me(7-2) Unbeaten in three starts but now changes barn and has one slow work since his last effort. Not sure he wants a mile distance but his connections picked a good spot to find out. However, while field is fairly weak, he is be facing his toughest test yet. 1)Sovereign Impact(20-1) Claimed out of his last start by connections who tends to get the best results from their trainees. He has won 2 sprints, one at 5 furlongs and one at 6 furlongs, both on Indiana Downs speed favoring track that often helps front runners look better than they actually are. Has had very little impact in races away from that track. One fairly decent work since the claim. 11) Dabo(5-1) Only one in field that has proven that this distance is within his scope, but both wins have came in races restricted to state breds. His maiden win at 6 furlongs came against open breds and his last to first effort saw him beat my top choice in the first start of his career. He has several good efforts while overmatched in Turfway Park 3 YO preps for the Ky Derby. Sharp right now as he wheels back in two weeks. Bets: $5 Ex Box 2-4($10), $1 Tri Box 1-2-4($6), .10 Super Box 1-2-4-11($2.40). Total Risk $18.40. -------------------------------------------------------------------- 9th Race: 6)Magic Wand(3-1) Wanted no part of Enable in last, but not many does. She has some races that makes her a contender for the win. Only difference,is she has tried the boys in top races on several occasions over here and ran respectable in them. like her stablemate, she contested Europe's biggest 3 YO fillies races last year. 1)Fleeting(5-2) Making first U.S. start after running in top 3 YO fillies races in Europe. Nicely bred horse who is bred along the same lines as the favorite in here. Only trainer that could possibly give Brown fits with his own handling of his fillies stars, though he is better in Europe when he does not have to travel half way around the globe. 7) Sistercharlie(8-5) Most likely will be odds on and I will try to beat. Makes 2nd start this year but like usual, Brown had her fit for her first test. 2 more good works and looks like that race took nothing out of her. Won this race last year in a contest between 3 Brown's trainees. One to beat. 5)Remember Daisy(30-1) Gets the acid test now but has shown some ability in her career. Though not likely to beat the top three, I will try to beat the rest in here with this one. No works since last, but trainer has farm nearby and probably has used it to keep her fit. Bets: .50 Super Box 1-5-6-7($12), $3 Super Key 6 with 1-5-7 with 1-5-7 with 1-5-7($18). Total Risk $30. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 10th Race: 7)Valid Point(5-1) Has not started since early June but has the best workout pattern since, and Brown is the one I first started noticing it with. Unbeaten in two starts and bred well enough to make it three, especially since the distance has been shorten to a mile on grass. 5)Ry's The Guy(15-1) Broken his maiden two back and then won his first level allowance race in his last and first effort on grass. As his bloodlines suggests, he put in his best performance to date when entered on the correct surface. Definitely not out of this and could surprise. Sire, Distorted Humor, performed in top level on dirt throughout his racing career, but as a sire is better known as an off track specialist or grass sire. Broodmare sire, Royal Academy, won the mile BC Turf Mile in his last start and when on to be a leading sire in several countries for several years. He is a 1/2 brother to Terlingua, the dam of Storm Cat. 1)Clint Maroon(20-1) After three straight win on grass, his last two had good possibilities why he did not win. His first of those two was a little further than his bloodlines suggests would be his best distance and in his most recent start, he stumbled at the start and then had to circle 6 wide to get into contention, giving his opponents a decided edge. Since that start, he has switched barns and has turned in three good works. His sire, Oasis Dream, was a sprint champion in Europe while his broodmare sire, El Prado is sire of both Medaglia D'Oro and Kitten's Joy. Another that is in with a good shot at an upset. 6)Fog Of War(3-1) Has made 2 starts this year with the second a significant improvement over his first start. However, he will need to take his class up another level or two to compete against these. His sire, War Front, is leading miler grass sire since the death of Scat Daddy. His dam, Say, a royally bred daughter of Galileo out of G1 SW Riskaverse has yet produced anyone close to either parent. Therefore, I will bet the three I like better and make this one beat me. Bets: $5 Ex Box 5-7($10), $2 Ex Box 1-5-7($12), $3 Tri Box 1-5-7($18), .50 Super Box 1-5-6-7($12), $1 Super Key 7 with 1-5-6 with 1-5-6 with 1-5-6($6). Total Risk $58. ------------------------------------------------------------------- 11th Race: 8)Captivating Moon(20-1) Made one start this year, finishing third in the prep for this race. Ran against good 3 YOs last year while never quite getting over type. New year and a freshening while giving him more time to mature could definitely be the answer. Two nice works since and he should be ready for the next step forward. 1)Robert Bruce(7-2) Made two starts this year, the first simply an out to get him fit. The second start saw him run 2nd to his stablemate, though he had the post position that tends to struggle compared to his stablemate who got another super trip from a post that tends to get good trips on Belmont inner turf course. 3)Bricks And Mortar(8-5) Is the favorite and deserving so. However, he is due for a not so good trip that will test his ability to overcome adversity that has taken many good runners down a notch or two. He is winding down his career as his breeding rights was sold to Japan and he departs after his last race this year, supposedly the BC Turf. Best U.S turf horse in training until someone knocks him down a notch. 4)Catcho En Die(30-1) Has made three starts this year and clearly been off form. However, he ran 4th in this race last year but was moved up to third via a dq of original third place finisher. Now on his fourth start since returning, including his first against the top two choices in here, I look for him to stick around because this field is similar to last year's field, with two horses dwarfing the others and he comes in not having a hard fought win he was coming off of, like last year. Bets: $10 WP 8($20), $5 Ex Box 1-8($10), $1 Tri Box 1-3-8($6), .10 Super Box 1-3-4-8($2.40), $1 Super Key 8 with 1-3-4 with 1-3-4 with 1-3-4($6). Total Risk $44.40. ---------------------------------------------------------------- 12th Race: 7)Comic Kitten(15-1) 4 starts this year with 2 seconds. But after a mini break of two months, she was entered in an allowance race that the winner slowed the pace down to a crawl and was able to hold her safe in a final time that was on the pedestrian side for grass especially. She needed two more efforts to recover, including drawing the rail on Saratoga turf course, where winners rarely make an impact from. Now she is working on her third try since that good first effort try and look for her to come alive. She has the same monstrous Sadler's Wells cross as Enable, though thru two different sons and grandsons. 2)Aunt Hattie(20-1) Has made 6 starts this year. Working on her fourth effort since her last winning effort with her last being her best effort, indicating she is regaining top form. One work since that effort should help her to retain her form. Her sire, Camelot, came the closest to sweeping the English TC since Nijinsky turned that hat trick in 1970. Her broodmare sire, Danehill, represent the same sire/dam family cross that has produced many top European G1 winners and champions. 10)Art Of Almost(5-1) 5 starts this year, breaking her maiden in her third start, then a conditioned allowance in her fourth start before finishing 3rd against a good G2 field of older mares, just missing second. 4 good works since that effort should have her in her best form. 3)Lightscameraaction(20-1) 3 starts this year, winning her most recent effort, but with some room for improvement. She showed some promise as a 2 YO and will most likely show more promise as she reaches peak conditioning. 2nd dam, Cross Traffic, was a multiple G1 SW and her best son, Cross Traffic, a son of Unbridled's Song, also won the G1 Whitney H and finished 2nd in the G1 Metropolitan Mile. Bets: $10 WP 7($20), $5 Ex Box 2-7($10), $1 Tri Box 2-7-10($6), .10 Super Box 2-3-7-10($2.40), $1 Super Box 7 with 2-3-10 with 2-3-10 with 2-3-10($6). Total Risk $44.40. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- By my calculation, I have listed $483 worth of bets I will make at Arlington tomorrow. So my goal this week will be to cash tickets worth around $1500. Anything more will be like gravy on top, and anything less will make me try harder again next weekend.
Previews of Robert B Lewis, Holy Bull, Withers Stakes' and more
As I’ve said before, I am at a sizable disadvantage with the weather. I examine the races/video on Wednesday, make my picks and do my write ups on Thursday and publish these articles on Friday morning. The problem is I look at the weather 2 or 3 days in advance and from that point on, I’m at the mercy of Mother Nature. When I looked at the Pegasus card last Wednesday and Thursday there was a “10%” chance of rain in Hallandale Beach, Fla. last Saturday. So what happens? The skies opened up on and off all day Saturday and changed the entire way I looked at the card. I did make several small adjustments to my card but to be fair, I will stick to what I published. While on the subject of last week/the Pegasus card, First off I was shocked to see Si Que Es Buena go off at 7.50 to 1 in the La Prevoyante. The $17.00 winner was the highlight of my day. New crowned Eclipse Award winning jockey Irad Ortiz rode Bricks and Mortar to perfection in winning the Pegasus Turf Cup. The 26 year old made several excellent decisions during the running of that race and found himself in the winner’s circle after winning “going away” late. The filly Magic Wand ran very well for second and Yoshida failed to fire as I didn’t see any visible excuses for him. In the Pegasus World Cup, simply put City of Light was absolutely brilliant in his swan song race. He stalked a quick early pace in the slop, took over leaving the six furlong marker and was striding out beautifully as he sprinted through the final furlong to win by almost six conclusive lengths. It’s a shame he and Accelerate boarded a van heading for Lane’s End Farm at 11:30 am last Sunday morning to begin stud duty as he seems to really be coming into his own. Speaking of Accelerate, he was a problem loading into the gate and although he looked disinterested during the running of the race, he did very well to grab the “show dough”. Kudos also to Seeking the Soul and his trainer Dallas Stewart, who I almost (accidentally) ran over with my car while he was eating a banana at Saratoga two years ago, who rallied from far back to get second at 34-1. Moving forward, we will be looking at seven races this weekend, highlighted by three Kentucky Derby prep races, once in each corner of the country. We will be looking at the Withers at Aqueduct, an eight furlong, $250,000 contest for three year olds. We’ll then head south to Gulfstream Park for a look at the $350,000, 8 ½ furlong Holy Bull Stakes for three year olds. While there, we will also be looking at the Forward Gal Stakes, a seven furlong test for three year old fillies and its counterpart, the Swale Stakes, another seven furlong contest for males. Lastly, we head West to Santa Anita for a look at the 8 ½ furlong, $150,000 Robert B. Lewis Stakes, for three year olds. While we are there, we will also be looking at the San Pasqual for four year olds and up. This race looks to be competitive as 2018 Eclipse Award nominee McKinzie will take on 2017 Breeders’ Cup Mile winner Battle of Midway amongst others. Lastly, I broke the races down by track not by post times so please be advised they are slightly out of sequence. Saturday Feb 2, 2019 Aqueduct Racetrack Race: 9 (4:30 PM EST Post) Withers Stakes Tax is bred to run to Antarctica and back non stop. After breaking his maiden and being claimed for $50,000, this son of Arch out of a Giant’s Causeway mare, valiantly chased Maximus Mischief in his wide tripped last and in the end, he was only beaten by less than three lengths at 17-1. I figure Maximus Mischief would be about 1/5 in this spot, so logically he’s my choice here. Lastly, note the eye popping 27 point Beyer Speed Figure improvement in that last race also as it coincidences with him running “first time Lasix.”……slight edge in tough race to figure……………………….Our Braintrust clearly looms a threat in this spot as well. This colt by Freud, who was purchased privately about four weeks ago, has never been worse that second through four career starts, topped off by finishing a close up second (to Mind Control) in the Jerome on this oval last time out. I love the ascending speed figures (58, 73, 77 and 86) and he’s has been working well…………………I’m sure some people will play Not That Brady on Super Bowl weekend as a hunch play. This chestnut gelding will probably tug on a few heart strings also being out of the club footed, blind in one eye and named after ownetrainer Tim Snyder’s wife who passed away from…you guessed it breast cancer…Lisa’s Booby Trap. (Lisa’s Booby Trap went on to win 10 of 18 career races in a remarkable story from about 9 or 10 years ago). Anyway, this gelding by Big Brown broke his maiden by a colossal margin two back and came back to wired a restricted Stakes field in his last. He tries open company for the first time here but his current form and speed figures suggest he’s a contender………………………Honorable Mentions: Lucky Lee buried maidens and first level allowance foes in his last two at Parx. Colt by Flatter will be making his first start in about 10 weeks but is another who has rising speed figures in each of his three starts (47, 70 and 88)….at the very least, he should be prominent early on……………………..Moretti is a $900,000, half brother to Breeders’ Cup winner Battle of Midway, who we are going to talk about a little later in this piece. The good looking son of Medaglia d’Oro finshed a very good second in his debut before winning his greenly run (swerved in mid-stretch) second start. He’ll go first time blinkers on Saturday and that should keep him more focused in this spot. Albeit this colt has some ability, I am rating him this low based on the molasses like fractions and final time of that last race………..Admire, who was screaming out for more distance in his six furlong debut, got exactly that in his second appearance as he broke his maiden when stretched out three more furlongs….outside shot here. (My play: $1 triple box using the top 5. Cost $60.00) Gulfstream Park Race: 9 (4:07 PM EST Post) Forward Gal Stakes Feedback annihilated maidens in her one and only start at Saratoga last year while getting the last furlong in a very good :06.3. Filly by Violence, who started his stud career at $15,000 but is now up to $40,000, has been off since but has been working steadily since the beginning of December. Eclipse Award winning rider takes the leg up from the Eclipse Award winning trainer….……………………Fashion Faux Pas wired maidens by almost 6 lengths at Laurel two back, then did the same while taking down a minor Stakes race at Tampa Bay Downs last time out. Note, with the anticipated bad weather rolling into Florida this weekend, this filly won that Tampa race over sloppy track. Although she will be stepping up in class and stretching out in distance, she does draw towards the inside and posted a bullet half mile work last week. Both of those facts signal to me that Castellano will “send” her out of the gate once again and could prove difficult to run down late………………..Champagne Anyone came from behind to break her maiden three starts back, then after a rough trip (missed the break, altered course late) she got up to beat high level optionals two starts back. Filly by Street Sense ran very well last time out also as she finished within shouting distance of upper echelon three year old filly Restless Rider when fourth in the Grade: 2 Golden Rod Stakes. She will be the recipient of one of my more favorite angles (drops in class/cuts back in distance) and she can handle the slop……looms a threat here for sure……………………Honorable Mentions: Bye Bye J is unbeaten on the dirt including beating a minor Stakes field on this oval last time out and scoring a strong 97 Brisnet Speed Figure in the process. Still another who steps up and stretches out however…………………Frond came with a brazen, four wide rally at the quarter pole to beat maidens over a sloppy track at Tampa Bay Downs at first asking. Although her speed figure and final time were nothing spectacular, she does get a serious rider upgrade and, more importantly, goes “first time Lasix”…………..Hollywood Glory shows back to back off track, second places finishes in two Stakes races in New York in her last two races. Note in her last how it was almost a dozen lengths back to the third place finisher in that race as well. (My Play .50 Trifecta Box using the first 5. Cost $30.00) Race: 10 (4:40 PM EST Post) Swale Stakes Call Paul is the most accomplished horse in this race as he towers over this field in money won and back class. Handsome colt by the equally handsome Friesen Fire is 3 for 5 in his career and his two losses came to horses far better (Complexity and Vekoma) than what he’ll be facing in this spot. Irad takes the leg up from an unconscious (17-40= 43%) Jason Servis. Only two questions left, will he “need one” as this is his first start in 61 days especially after recording slow works leading into this? And will he handle the anticipated off track? Past those, he looks best…………………………Throw a blanket over the rest and pick ‘em as they are difficult to separate…..Zenden is 2 for 2 in his career with both races coming on this oval, including taking down a minor Stakes race last time out…………………High Crime blasted maidens in his first try on the dirt and on this surface. Another offspring of Violence, he recorded a strong speed figure and final time in that race as well………………….Honorable Mentions: Topper T had a busy and pretty good start to his career last year before being handed over to trainer Bill Mott. Mott then put him in way over his head in his two starts including chasing 2YO Champion Game Winner in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and Signalman in the Kentucky Jockey Club last time out. Bottom line here is he drops (and cuts back in distance) into a more reasonable spot on here…………………….Country Singer, who has won his last two “on the engine” and by a combined 12 lengths, Seismic Jolt who has been beating up on lesser in restricted races and Frosted Grace, who has speed, the rail, gets one of the best speed riders in the game and cuts back in distance, all have serious early speed and could hurt each other’s chances, but all merit a look as well. (My Play: $20 win, $20 place on Call Paul. Cost $40.00) Race: 11 (5:13 PM EST Post) Holy Bull Stakes Maximus Mischief has been in front at every call through all three career races while breaking his maiden by almost 9, beating first level allowance horses by 6 and then taking the Grade: 2, two turn Remsen at Aqueduct in his last. In watching the replay, I really liked the way this colt came roaring off the turn in the Remsen, showing a very fluid and powerful stride at the same time. Like several others on the card, He’ll have to answer a few more questions come Saturday. Like how will he handle the anticipated off track? And will he be ready? Remember, you want your horse peaking on the first Saturday in May, not he first Saturday in February. That said, judging by his sparkling works, topped off by a :58 flat, five furlong move last week, I would say he is ready enough for this. “He’s already been a mile and an eighth (Remsen), which I think is a pretty good advantage. It puts us a little bit ahead of the curve with the other 3-year-olds around,” trainer Robert (Butch) Reid said. “We have an opportunity to run him a mile and a sixteenth, a distance we know he can handle, and the timing was just perfect for us. “We’re looking forward to the Holy Bull. We’ll have to see what the competition looks like and go from there, but no excuses for him right now. He’s doing very well.”………………………………Mihos is clearly the biggest threat to MM here. This son of Cairo Prince, who looked like world beater winning this very race is 2014, has improved leaps and bounds through his first three races, topped off by winning the Mucho Macho Man Stakes on this track last time out on Jan 5. That said, it took him a very pedestrian :26.4 to get the last quarter mile in that race…That’s troubling to me………………………Garter and Tie has yet to run a bad race in his career and on this track as his 7-2-2-2 record would indicate, including winning a Stakes race two back. Obscurely bred colt finished right behind Mihos last time out as well….merits consideration here……………………….Honorable Mentions: Federal Case, a $650,000 son of Gemologist, could be “laying in the weeds” and ready to ambush his foes in this spot. He is 2 for 2 in his career and was recently handed over to Todd Pletcher….”Ignore Pletcher, leave the track on a stretcher”………………………… Harvey Wallbanger has run 8 ½ furlongs in three of his four career starts and has never finished worse than second in any of the four. That said, his final times are getting progressively slower and his speed figures have dropped ever so slightly……………………………..Gladiator King has been blown off the racetrack in his last two races, losing both by a combined 39 lengths. That said and once again with the uncertain weather in the area, note he ran far and away the best race of his life over a sloppy track. (My play- Pass, there won't be any value in this race as far as I can see) Oaklawn Park Race: 8 (4:38 PM EST Post) Martha Washington Stakes Sunset Wish has improved nicely through all five of her career starts, topped off by a conclusive win in the Take Charge Brandi Stakes at Delta Downs in her last. This daughter of Malibu Moon, owned by the powerhouse Godolphin Stable, is a logical choice here……………..Taylor’s Spirit has excellent early speed and has won 4 of her first 6 starts. Although she has won at one mile before (on the turf), I do not believe this is her best distance as she was run down by the top pick at a shorter distance last time out…………………….Marathon Queen wired maidens in her initial journey at the Fair Grounds. Chestnut daughter of Super Saver steps up and stretches out but she draws very well for her running style. Trainer Steve Asmussen reaches out to his “go to” rider Ricardo Santana Jr. which sends a message to me here……………………..…..Honorable Mentions: Although Sheza Handfull has been facing maiden claimers, she has improved greatly through all three career starts topped off by beating $50,000 MC’s last time out. This good looking daughter of Into Mischief will be making her first start in about 10 weeks but that last half mile work (:49) was better than it looks on paper…………………………….Crafty’s Dream has hit the board in eight of 11 career starts and although she might be best on synthetics, she might run well here even though her trainer is 0 for 23 in Graded Stakes races. (My Play: $1 Trifecta Box using all 5. Cost $60.00) Santa Anita Park Race: 6 (5:53PM EST Post) Robert B. Lewis Stakes If it rains like they said it will this weekend at Santa Anita, this races becomes a little more dicey as only one horse in the race has ever set hoof on a wet track. That said Mucho Gusto is one of the better three years olds that hails from the perennial powerhouse Bob Baffert barn. This $625,000 son of Mucho Macho Man wired maidens in his debut, wired the field in his second start (Grade: 2 Bob Hope Stakes) then valiantly chased absolute budding super star Improbable in the Grade: 1 Los Alamitos Futurity last time out. Don’t worry about the 56 days off as he shows an excellent work pattern. One that combines stamina building works and couple of speed honing works as well…………………………Gunmetal Gray took advantage of a fast early pace and a complete mental meltdown of the highly touted Coliseum when winning the Sham Stakes in his last. After chasing 2 YO Champion Game Winner in his two previous races, this colt by Exchange Rate was last and some seven lengths behind at one point yet blew by the field down the lane in a visually impressive effort…….should be coming late once again in this spot……………………..After beating high level maiden claimers two back, Easy Shot finished just over three lengths behind Gunmetal Gray in the Sham Stakes last time out and improved for the third race in a row in the process. Colt from the legendary Calumet Farm looks best of the rest here…………………Honorable Mentions: You can go ahead and throw out Nolo Contesto’s debut race as he was bumped hard at the start, causing his rider to lose an iron and the distance was way too short for him. Good looking $385,000 ridgling by Pioneerof the Nile came back and won second time out when stretched out to one mile while coming home in a halfway decent :25.1 for the last quarter mile……………….Although facing lesser opponents Kid Cantina has yet to run a bad race through four career start. This $15,000 yearling purchase stretches back out to distance that should hit him right between the eyes and his figures have been steadily improving. (My play: $1 trifecta box all 5. Cost $60.00) Race: 9 (7:23PM EST Post) San Pasqual Stakes (7:23PM EST Post) McKinzie could not have looked any better when rallying from way back early and zooming past his rivals in the Malibu Stakes last time out. If you draw a line through his Breeders’ Cup Classic debacle, the Malibu would be his fourth straight win and his fifth in six career starts. This colt by Street Sense is now a Graded Stakes winner at seven furlongs, a mile, a mile and a sixteenth and a mile and an eighth….that, readers, is impressive…hard to go against in this spot………………………After being deemed sterile and put back into training, Battle of Midway just missed in the San Antonio last time out and won back to back races previously. This $410,000 son of Smart Strike’s comeback is now complete as he seems to have picked up where he left off last year. Bottom line here is this bay horse, who loves this track as his 7-4-2-1 record would indicate and has been working extremely well of late, is a threat in just about any spot he runs in at these middle distances…………………………..Dabster is a $1 million, now five year old by Curlin who has run step for step with Battle of Midway in his last two races, including an absolute thriller two starts back. Figures prominent throughout…………………………..Honorable Mentions: Dalmore is 4 for 9 on this oval and 0 for 17 everywhere, so it’s safe to say you get the “Horse for the Course” angle here. The now six year old gelding appears to be in good form right now also…..could be a menace here………………….Even though he will be making his first start in three months, Giant Expectations has the ability to run well in this spot. He is already a multiple Graded Stakes winner, he has been working well of late and he has run well “off the bench” before……………………I still think Shivermetimbers is better than his 3 for 13 record would indicate and, like I mentioned about Fellowship, who came fourth at 70-1 last week, this horse is going to run a pop a big race one of these days. I just hope it’s not this Saturday. (My Play: $1 trifecta box using the top 5. Cost: $60.00) By: Gerard Apadula Director of Equine Operations and Development Knights of the Round Stable Thoroughbred Racing Team [[email protected]](mailto:[email protected]) 2019- Record: 5-15 = 33% (My Plays: -$378.05) 2018- Record: 107-261= 41% 2017- Record: 92-235 = 39% 2016- Record: 91-229 = 40% 2015- Record: 67-180 = 37% 2014- Record: 29-73 = 40% 2013- Record: 20-59= 34% 2012 -Record: 24-73= 33% 2011 –Record: N/A 2010- Record: 24-74= 33% Little Bets N Pieces **** At 12:05 a.m., Jan. 28 two time Champion Songbird delivered an Arrogate filly at Wayne and Cathy Sweezey’s Timber Town Farm near Lexington. “In my life I’ve foaled thousands of mares … and she’s one of the best I’ve ever been around. She’s a very, very special mare,” Wayne Sweezey said. “Everybody anticipated this. She was already pretty special—it’s been very special to have her on the farm—but she was so professional what she did last night.” Songbird was due to deliver her first foal Jan. 27 and went all of five minutes over that timeline. Sweezey said it took her about a half hour to get the baby in position, then, with one person assisting, she delivered the filly. After about 15 minutes of rest, Songbird stood up and accepted the new foal. Both are doing well. **** Love the Chase, dam of two-time Horse of the Year California Chrome, has been booked to 2018 Breeders’ Cup Classic winner and Horse of the Year runner up Accelerate in 2019, Tom Ryan of SF Bloodstock announced last week. “A great looking colt that’s done it the hard way, has proven his mettle and clearly has our full attention,” Ryan said on Twitter. Love the Chase, a 13-year-old mare by Not for Love, was purchased by SF Bloodstock for $1.95 million at the 2016 Fasig-Tipton Kentucky Fall Selected Mixed Sale in foal to Tapit. **** When Caroline Lois captured the fourth race at Gulfstream Park Jan. 5, it gave trainer Dale Romans the 2,000th victory of his career. Romans’ resume include winning the 2011 Preakness Stakes with Shackleford in 2011 and finished second in that race two other times. Other top performers throughout his career include Promises Fulfilled, Little Mike Tapitsfly, Dullahan, Kitten’s Joy and Keen Ice. But perhaps Romans’ best horse was Roses in May, who registered eight wins and four seconds from 13 starts and more than $5.4 million in purses. Roses in May capped his career with a victory in the 2005 Dubai World Cup. **** Cappucino Bay, the dam of multiple Grade 1 winner and leading sire Medaglia d’Oro, died Jan. 25 at the Montana farm of Albert and Joyce Bell. The 30-year-old mare had been battling Cushing’s Disease. Cappucino Bay raced as a Washington homebred for the Bells, winning just five of 24 starts for earnings of $164,433. Cappucino Bay’s greatest accomplishment, though, came as the dam of Medaglia d’Oro. The son of El Prado’s $5,754,720 in earnings were compiled with wins in the Grade 1 Travers Stakes, Whitney Handicap, and Donn Handicap, and the Grade: 2’s San Felipe Stakes, Jim Dandy Stakes, Strub Stakes, and Oaklawn Handicap. He also finished second in two editions of the Breeders’ Cup Classic, and was also runner-up in the Belmont Stakes and Dubai World Cup. “MDO” has sired 2009 Horse of the Year Rachel Alexandra, champion Songbird, and Breeders’ Cup winners Talismanic, New Money Honey, and Bar of Gold. Cappucino Bay was also the dam of G3 winner Naples Bay and stakes-placed Expresso Bay. **** Cowboy Diplomacy, a 3-year-old full brother to champion Monomoy Girl, will be making his racing debut next month, according to trainer Brad Cox. Cowboy Diplomacy has had five published works this season at Oaklawn including a :59.3, five furlong bullet move from the gate last Sunday “He’s doing good,” Cox said. “I think he’s almost ready to go, for sure. We’ll see.” Cox, who also trains Monomoy Girl, said his champion filly was sent to Florida for a freshening following a victory in the $2 million Breeders’ Cup Distaff Nov. 3 at Churchill Downs, but added she is scheduled to rejoin his barn at Fair Grounds barn early next week. Cox said the $700,000 Apple Blossom Handicap April 14 at Oaklawn and $500,000 La Troienne Stakes May 3 at Churchill Downs are being considered for Monomoy Girl’s 2019, 4-year-old debut. “We’re going to let her tells us,” Cox said.
My Pedigree Thoughts-- Most Of What I Have Mentioned Can Be Found Online But Takes Hours To Research.
I will give you my opinion of every horse's pedigree that looks to be pointing to this year's derby. but I will let each of you make the final decision of who you want to risk money on. Most of my thoughts will be dead on but there are instances where I may overlook a sire but more likely it will be the dam I tend to overlook. Bolt D'Oro is first up. His sire was Medaglia d'Oro, a son of El Prado. Medaglia d'Oro only G1 win at 1 1/4 mile was the Travers S where he ran the last 1/2 mile in 51 flat and was all out to hang on beating the only other graded stakes winner in the field, Repent, whose biggest win was the G2 La Derby, ran that year at 1 1/16 miles. But he also ran second in two editions of the BC Classic, Belmont S(finishing the last half in 53 2/5), and the Pacific Classic(to Candy Ride when he set the track record that he still holds in 1:59 flat). His best runners were at their best up to 1 1/8 miles, though his only runner to win at 1 1/4 mile was Songbird, who did it twice, in 203 flat and 204 flat, both on fast tracks and finishing times that are respectable for fillies but a little slow for the best colts. Bolt D'Oro dam, Globe Trot, won three times in 17 starts, all at 1 mile but no stakes wins. But her sire is A.P. Indy, giving Bolt all the distance pedigree he will need. While I would not be surprised if he won, his trainer will face pressure during derby week that he has never experienced before. It is the downfall of many, especially the first time. The more I watch his races makes me believe the trainer will try to get him on the lead, and I think he is beatable if the trainer succeeds. Enticed is another son of Medaglia D'Oro(see above). His dam is It's Tricky, a multiple G1 winning filly up to 1 1/8 mile. However, the only time she tried 1 1/4 mile, she ran 2nd to Royal Delta, a champion 3 YO & 4 YO filly. She just recently died from foaling complications producing a Pioneerof The Nile colt, who also died. Her other foal was a year older full sister to Enticed and retired without racing to preserved the bloodlines. It's Tricky sire, Mineshaft, is a son of A.P. Indy who was Horse Of The Year in 2003 and winning at 1 1/4 mile twice in 2 attempts, the Jockey Club Gold Cup in 2:00 1/5 and the Suburban on 201 3/5, beating Volponi in the latter, pulling away at the end. His best sons were Effinex, a G1 winner at 1 1/4 mile and Dialed In, beaten favorite in the 2011 Ky Derby. Enticed trainer, Kiaran McLaughlin has experienced the pressure of derby week several times, including a 2nd in the 2005 Ky Derby with Closing Argument at 80-1, and two 4ths with Frosted and Mohaymen, both sons of Tapit. As of now, Enticed is my pick to win this year's derby and will most likely be the one I will end up betting. Knowing McLaughlin, I believe he will ask the jockey to rate this horse and make a move turning for home. Bravazo is a son of Awesome Again, who was Horse Of The Year in 1998 when he won the BC Classic against probably the best field top to bottom ever assembled for that race, including Silver Charm, Swain, Victory Gallop and Skip Away, all multiple G1 SWs up to 1 1/2 miles. Awesome Again is a top sire and his best son, Ghostzapper, also won the G1 BC Classic on his way to Horse Of The Year in 2004. Bravazo's dam, Tiz O' Gold, is bred on the exact same lines as Tiznow but her broodmare sire, Slew O' Gold was Seattle Slew's most accomplished runner on the race track, winning the older horse TC at 4 YO after narrowing missing sweeping it as a 3 YO. While Bravazo is bred to handle 1 1/4 miles, he will need to run faster than he has thus far to be a factor against G1 competition. A likely pace setter. Promises Fulfilled is a son of Shackleford, who ran 4th in the Ky Derby after setting the pace and then won the Preakness S, beating Animal Kingdom. His dam, Marquee Delivery, was graded stakes placed at 1 mile and 1 1/8 miles. His broodmare sire, Marquetry, won the 1 1/4 mile Hollywood Gold Cup, just lasting and beating a career G3 winner but was trounced in at least a half dozen other attempts at 1 1/4 mile, including twice more each in the Gold Cup and BC Classic. If Promises Fulfilled gets a slow pace is the only way, he will be a factor in the Ky Derby and I personally do not see that as possible. I will definitely make this one beat me. Magnum Moon is a son of Malibu Moon, who sire Ky Derby winner Orb, a horse Magnum Moon is similar bred like. Orb's broodmare sire was Unbridled and Magnum Moon's broodmare sire is Unbridled's Song. However, there is a major difference in their female lines that could prevent Magnum Moon from getting the 1 1/4 mile distance. Unbridled's broodmare sire, Le Fabuleux, is a son of Wild Risk, a great grandson of St Simon and himself the broodmare sire of Blushing Groom(broodmare sire of Awesome Again). In Unbridled's female family under Le Fabuleux, his dams traces to Man O' War twice and more important, to La Troienne twice. Unbridled's Song was super fast and the beaten favorite in the 1996 Ky Derby when 4th to another Unbridled's son, Grindstone. Unbridled's Song broodmare sire was Caro, whose best sons were better on grass than dirt. However, Caro's daughter, Winning Colors, won the Ky Derby in 1988, mostly because the trainers of that derby gave her no respect and she got to run all alone throughout and lasted. Unbridled's Song initially was better at siring sprinters/ milers types when he first started breeding, but his progeny started getting more distance as he aged. Underneath in Magnum Moon pedigree is Giant's Causeway whose broodmare sire is Rahy, a son of Blushing Groom. So before I can dismiss this horse, I will want to see how he fares in the Arkansas Derby. Pletcher has screwed up on several top 3 YOs just before the derby and this could possibly be another one. The Apollo curse(unraced as a 2 YO) will eventually be broken and this one has the bloodlines to do it, especially with his slightly off the pace style of running. Quip is a son of Distorted Humor, who was better as a sprinter during his racing career. He was the sire of Ky Derby and Preakness winner, Funny Cide, but Funny Cide's broodmare sire(Slewacide) had more to do with that than him. Distorted Humor can produce a distance runner but usually when he gets a lot of help from the dam. And that is not the case with Quip. Starting with his broodmare sire, Indian Charlie, his female family is loaded with sprint/miler type runners and producers. Definitely one I will not consider. McKinzie is a son of Ky Derby winner Street Sense. However, he has the running style that resembles his broodmare sire Petionville, a son of Seeking The Gold, who found 1 1/8 miles to be his limit. Mckinzie's running style is the preferred style Baffert now tries to teach all his horses to use but I believe he would be much more dangerous if allowed to sit mid pack and make one big run. But Baffert has been burned twice using that type of tactics on favorite type horses and I do not see him changing what has worked for him 4 different times versus none(due to misjudged rides mostly). So I will try to beat this one. Good Magic is a son of Curlin, who ran third in the Ky Derby in his 4th lifetime start, then won the Preakness and ran 2nd in the Belmont S on his way to the 3 YO Champion. He was Horse Of The Year at 4 in 2008. Good Magic's broodmare sire is Hard Spun, who beat Curlin when 2nd in the 2007 Ky Derby behind Street Sense, then ran 3rd in the Preakness and 4th in the Belmont before finishing 2nd in the BC Classic in the slop against Curlin. Hard Spun's sire was Danzig, who mostly known for siring milers but his broodmare sire was Turkoman, a son of Alydar, who was Champion Older Horse after maturing as a 4 YO. However he ran 2nd in the Travers S and 3rd in the BC Classic as a 3 YO, so he showed he preferred distance. There will be no one in this year derby that is better bred to handle a distance than Good Magic. And with Chad Brown(who learned under Bobby Frankel) as his trainer, it will be hard to bet against this one. Only downfall might be two races before the derby but Brown has proven he knows how to get them fit quickly. Solomini is another son of Curlin(see above). His broodmare sire is Storm Cat. However, Solomini's dam, Surf Song, is an unraced 1/2 sister to Frosted but with one noted difference. She is inbred 5x5 to ultra stamina influence Princequillo. When a horse is inbred, they will often turn out closely resembling the inbred horse. She has five foals to race and Solomini is her first graded placed foal. Early in his career, Princequillo flashed speed but was unable to win often until he was claimed for $2500 and tried at distances of 1 1/4 mile and up. He set the 1 3/4 mile track record at Saratoga in 1943 as a 3 YO and was brought by Arthur "Bull" Hancock for breeding purposes. Baffert announced before the Rebel, that he would have to find another spot for Solomini because he was going to run Justify in the Arkansas Derby. Maybe worth a wager in the exacta or trifecta, but only if he gets little or no respect at the betting windows. I still believe he represents Baffert's best shot at another derby win. Flameaway is a son of Scat Daddy, who probably is best up to 1 1/8 miles on dirt. He is better bred for grass and that is why most of his foals perform better on that surface. Flameaway's broodmare sire is Fusaichi Pegasus, winner of the 2000 Ky Derby and Mr Prospector's only son to win at 1 1/4 mile or further in a G1 race on a fast track. The only other time he raced at 1 1/4 miles was the BC Classic that year and he was no factor against Tiznow & Giant's Causeway. I see Flameaway as a pace factor only and there are quite a few I like better. Firenze Fire is a son of Poseidon's Warrior, who did not win a stakes race past 6 furlongs. However, Poseidon's Warrior broodmare sire is Smarten who also is broodmare sire of Smart Strike. Smarten won 4 derbies as a 3 YO and ran 2nd in the Travers S and the Arkansas Derby. Firenze Fire's broodmare sire is Langfuhr, the best siring dirt son of Danzig. Langfuhr is the sire of Wando who won Canada's TC(restricted to Canadian breds) but got crushed when he raced against America's best and Lawyer Ron, who won the Arkansas Derby and several other G1 up to 1 1/8 miles. Firenze Fire has a sneaky good pedigree especially on his dam side and that makes him a possible for an underneath slot but think him winning is probably a little far fetch. He is one I will probably make beat me because I like several others more. Free Drop Billy is a son of Union Rags, who won the 2012 Belmont S and whose only off the board finish in his career came in the Ky Derby when he got sandwiched at the start, squeezed back and had to take up but then closed with a rush to finish 7th, making up more than a dozen lengths. Free Drop Billy's broodmare sire is Giant's Causeway who has been a top runner and sire throughout his life. He has the pedigree to burn none believers and it will mostly be the type of trip he gets that determines the final outcome. While I am leaning against betting him to win, he is one I will have to consider underneath. Snapper Sinclair is a son of City Zip, who was a solid sprinter during his racing career. I bet a lot of his horses at under a mile on dirt and usually up to a mile on grass. However, we are talking about 1 1/4 mile on dirt here and there is no way I can even consider that. Snapper Sinclair's broodmare sire is Yes It's True, another confirmed sprinter who was at his best up to 7 furlongs. And while he has a little help from other parts of his pedigree, the fact he has 2 sprinters in the 2 most important spot of his pedigree makes him a do not include in any bets for me. Pass. Combatant is a son of Scat Daddy, who as I mentioned earlier was at his best up to 1 1/8 miles on dirt but his best runners are better on grass. Combatant's broodmare sire is Boundary, who also was a sprinter during his racing career. Boundary did sire Ky Derby and Preakness winner, Big Brown, but it was discovered after the Preakness that he was receiving monthly steroids shots, which has always been illegal in all horse racing jurisdictions because it can mask more potent drugs. When confronted, the trainer admitted to administering the steroids, leading to a 10 year to lifetime ban on the trainer. That said, Combatant does have a nice pedigree underneath that makes it hard to dismiss him. Forty Niner ran 2nd in the 1988 Ky Derby to Winning Colors and is Mr Prospector's best siring son. Combatant's dam is also inbred 3x4 to Northern Dancer and 5x5 to Native Dancer. Also, Slew O' Gold can be found on the dam side. If you like this horse, you can be sure you will get some solid odds on derby day, especially if he runs close but finishes 2nd or 3rd in his last prep. Have not yet toss him myself, waiting to see how the derby sets up. Blended Citizen is a son of Proud Citizen, who ran 2nd in the 2002 Ky Derby and 3rd in the Preakness, beating Medaglia D'Oro. Proud Citizen is one of only a few sires that has sired 2 Ky Oaks winners, Proud Spell and Believe You Can. Proud Citizen's son, Went The Day Well, lagged near the back of the pack in the 2012 Ky Derby but was closing fastest of all at the end to finish 4th, beaten 2 1/2 lengths, making up 8 lengths in the stretch alone against I'll Have Another and Bodemeister. Proud Citizen's third dam, Arctic Dancer, is a full sister to Northern Dancer. Blended Citizen's broodmare sire, Langfuhr, was arguably Danzig's best producing son on dirt but was also a solid sire on grass. While he was a sprintemiler during his racing career including winning the G1 Metropolitan Mile, several of his foals stretched their speed up to 1 1/8 mile on dirt. With three crosses of Nearctic in his 5th generation and two crosses of Natalma(Mahmoud's grand daughter who was dam of Northern Dancer & Arctic Dancer), Blended Citizen is bred very similar to Danehill, sire of 348 SWs(most all time by one sire). However, Danehill won two sprint stakes on grass during his racing career and most of his foals were also best at sprinting up to a mile on grass. While I feel Blended Citizen best surface will be the all weather tracks and grass, there is little in his pedigree that suggest he can not perform well at 1 1/4 mile on dirt. However, he will have to run a race he has not proven capable of yet to be a factor but has the look of one that could finish in the lower have of the exotics, keying a monstrous payoff. Strike Power is a son of Speightstown, a very fast sprinter during his racing career that Pletcher was forced to stop on twice during his racing career due to major injuries, once for almost 2 years. Speightstown still owns Saratoga track record for 6 furlongs in 108 flat and he won the BC Sprint, also in 108 flat, in the last start of his career as a 6 YO. Strike Power's dam, Gold D'Oro, won at 1 1/4 mile on grass in allowance company and showed she preferred distances of 1 1/8 miles to 1 1/4 miles on grass. Her sire is Medaglia D'Oro and she has a rare cross of 3/4 brothers Sadler's Wells and Nureyev, both top sires on grass at distances. Gold D'Oro's dam line traces back into 1941 TC winner Whirlaway. However his pedigree is tilted too much towards speed on dirt for my liking and he will be one I will leave out of my bets. Old Time Revival is a son of Brethren, a 1/2 brother to 2010 Ky Derby winner Super Saver. Their dam, Supercharger, is a full sister to She's A Winner, dam of 2006 Ky Derby & Belmont S seconds, Blue Grass Cat. Brethren, also trained by Pletcher, won his first 3 starts including the G3 Sam F Davis S before running third in the Tampa Bay Derby and 11th in the Arkansas Derby, effectively knocking him out of the TC consideration. Brethren dam line is also the dam line of California Chrome's broodmare sire, Not For Love. However, Brethren's early career mirrors that of this year derby hopeful, Magnum Moon. Old Time Revival's broodmare sire is Congaree, who ran third in the 2001 Ky Derby after contesting the fastest pace in Ky Derby long history. Congaree would win the Hollywood Gold Cup at 1 1/4 miles and run 2nd in the SA Handicap as a 4 YO. His broodmare sire Mari's Book, a son of Northern Dancer, was also broodmare sire of Ashado, champion 3 YO filly and Champion Older filly as a 4 YO. While Old Time Revival has some more stamina influences in his dam family, he seems to prefer setting the pace and that will probably be his downfall against this type of horses. Another I will not consider, myself. Instilled Regard is a son of Arch, who won the G1 Super Derby at 1 1/4 miles, beating a G3 quality field at best. Here is a sire that I disagree with the pedigree experts assessment on his distance abilities. The experts thinks he is a 1 1/4 mile sire but his progency says otherwise. True, he is sire of BC Classic winner, Blame but Blame's female family produced Sadler's Wells and his full brother Fairly Bridge, and Nureyev, along with dozens of others who displayed distance capabilities. Outside of Blame, Arch's other foals was good up to 1 1/8 miles but none lasted the 1 1/4 miles distance. However, his sire line is one of the best stamina influences but Arch's dam line was simply middle distance horses at best. Instilled Regard's broodmare sire is Forestry, a son of Storm Cat but who sports the same dam line as Mr Prospector, just a few generations later. This dam line was also at their best up to 1 1/8 miles and struggled at any distances past that point. However, Instilled Regard's second dam, Heavenly Prize, won 9 of 18 starts including several at 1 1/4 miles and never finished worse than third, including a solid third to Cigar while he was in the middle of his 16 straight winning streak. The Risen Star S is a toss for this horse and every other horse than ran in that race as no horse passed more than one horse throughout that race. While it is common to see no moves in a 4 or 5 horse field, it has to be at least 1 in 10,000 to see none in a 8 or more horse fields. So I am going to wait to see what he does in the Santa Anita Derby before I will be willing to totally exclude him from consideration. Catholic Boy is a son of More Than Ready, who ran 4th in the 2000 Ky Derby. However, he never won past 7 furlongs in his racing career, though he ran 2nd in the Blue Grass S on Keeneland's notorious speed favoring track and 2nd in the Louisiana Derby against horse than proved to be a cut below the better horses of that year. As a sire, More Than Ready's foals has always been high class sprinters/milers, especially on grass but none has won at 1 1/4 mile on either surface. The only son I found of his that won at 1 1/8 miles on dirt was Verrazano, who won both the Wood Memorial and Haskell Inv as a 3 YO in blowouts. But he did not finish anywhere near the money in 3 tries at 1 1/4 miles. Catholic Boy's broodmare sire, Bernardini, won the Travers S and the Jockey Club Gold Cup at 1 1/4 mile as a 3 YO before running 2nd in the BC Classic. However, his best distance son, Stay Thirsty, had no problem handling 1 1/4 miles but his broodmare sire, Storm Bird, had a lot of influence in that. His 2nd best son, To Honour And Serve, won several G1s at 1 1/8 miles but was not close in two tries at 1 1/4 miles. So while I will not say Catholic Boy can not win(because anything can happen during a race), my money will be going on others that has family that succeeded at 1 1/4 miles or further. Avery Island is injured and off the derby trail. My Boy Jack is a son of Creative Cause, who finished 5th in the 2012 Ky Derby after making a strong move before hitting the invisible proverbial brick wall at the 1/8 pole. Creative Cause's sire, Giant's Causeway, had no problem with the 1 1/4 miles distance but his dam, Dream Of Summer, limit was 1 1/8 miles but she was even better at up to a mile. Her sire line is the same as Uncle Mo and this sire line is much more dangerous on grass. My Boy Jack's broodmare sire, Mineshaft, was Horse Of The Year at 4 YO and won both of his attempts at 1 1/4 miles. And believe it or not, he is the only son of A.P. Indy out of a Mr Prospector mare to win a G1 race at 1 1/4 miles. My Boy Jack's dam was unraced but is bred to another daughter out of a Mr Prospector's son. And for this reason, I will be looking elsewhere. Greyvitos is a son of Malibu Moon, who broke his maiden in his first start and then got injured in his second start while finishing second. Malibu Moon sired 2013 Ky Derby winner, Orb, who won in a muddy edition of the derby like his pedigree suggested he should and never came even close to reproducing that form at the 1 1/4 mile distance. Malibu Moon's best foals are solid at 1 1/8 miles but rarely wants to go any more route of ground. Greyvitos was last seen winning the Remington Springboard Mile in December and had surgery to remove bone chips from his knees after that race. He has yet to make his 3 YO debut, but is now back in training. Greyvitos's broodmare sire is Najran, who won up to a mile and actually tied Dr Fager's world record of 132 1/5 for a mile on dirt in the G3 Westchester H. His best two runners were fillies, including Greyvitos's dam, and both were solid up to 1 1/8 mile on grass. His dam also has some distance influence in her family tree. However, I can not believe any horse will be able to beat the best off one prep at 1 1/4 mile and will have to pass, especially with his pedigree. Audible is a son of Into Mischief, who won the 1 1/16 mile CashCall Futurity on Hollywood Park's all weather track in a fast time. Into Mischief is a 1/2 brother to Beholder, who won the Pacific Classic at 1 1/4 mile as a 5 YO against horses better suited for shorter distances and then ran 2nd to California Chrome in the same race as a 6 YO. Beholder two races outside of California was better than most perceived as she ran 2nd in the Ky Oaks, beaten a 1/2 length by Princess Of Sylmar and then 4th, beaten 1 length by that rival in the Ogden Phipps H. However, true to her pedigree, she performed her best at 1 1/16 miles and 1 1/8 miles against the best of her class. Audible's broodmare sire, Gilded Time, won the BC Juvenile Dirt as a 2 YO and was injured shortly thereafter and missed the derby. He returned in the BC Sprint after a year layoff and ran third, beaten 3/4 of a length. However, his pedigree suggested he would struggle at a 1 1/4 mile. In fact, his best son, Gayego, won the G1 Arkansas Derby at 1 1/8 miles and ran near the back in both the Ky Derby & Preakness S, fading badly both times. So there is no way I will consider betting this horse under any circumstances. I have never made money betting this type and rarely does this type beat my horse. Pass. The Tabulator and Paved, a filly, are not nominated to the derby. The Tabulator has good breeding but has been sent towards the lead in each of his starts and I will not consider him mostly for that reason and the expected pace battle that is shaping up along with being inactive this year. Paved, a filly, will prove she belongs on the grass and/or all weather tracks against her own kind. She beat a less than stellar field in the El Camino Real Derby. Kanthara is a son of Jimmy Creed, who won the G1 Malibu S at 7 furlongs. His sire was Distorted Humor and his dam, Hookedonthefeelin, only added to his sprinting ability. Kanthara's broodmare sire, Noonmark, was a son of Unbridled's Song, whose best races were as an off the pace sprinter that did not run on as the distance stretch out slightly. So I will take a pass on this one as I simply do not see enough stamina influences to help him. World Of Trouble is a son of Kantharos, who won his only 3 starts, including the G2 Saratoga Special in the mud. Kantharos's sire, Lion Heart, ran 2nd in the 2004 Ky Derby to Smarty Jones, also in the mud. World Of Trouble's broodmare sire, Valid Expectations was a confirmed sprinter whose biggest win came in the G3 1 mile Derby Trial S. He tried G1 competition twice and was crushed on both occasions. Simply does not have enough pedigree for my liking. Pass. Lombo is a son of Graydar, a G1 winning son of Unbridled's Song who won 5 of his 6 lifetime starts, including the Donn H and New Orleans H, defeating G1 winners Flat Out, Take Charge Indy, and Bourbon Courage in the Donn H at 1 1/8 miles in wire to wire fashion. He concluded his career by winning the G2 Kelso H at a mile in 1:34 flat. Lombo is from Graydar's first crop. Lombo's broodmare sire, Johannesburg, went unbeaten in 7 starts as a 2 Yo, including beating a solid field in the G1 BC Dirt Juvenile handily after winning Europe's biggest 2 YO races in his first 6 starts. In his first crop, he sired Scat Daddy, who won the G1 Champagne at 1 mile and G1 Florida Derby at 1 1/8 miles. Lombo is another who would benefit from a slow pace but I really think he is overmatched against these. Pass. Noble Indy is a son of Take Charge Indy, who won the G1 Florida Derby at 1 1/8 miles. In his only try at the 1 1/4 distance, he finished 19th of 20th beaten 50 lengths by I'll Have Another. Take Charge Indy is a 1/2 brother to Will Take Charge, champion 3 YO of 2013. Noble Indy's dam, Noble Maz, won a couple of turf sprints restricted to Pennsylvania Bred, Her sire, Storm Boot, did his best running in turf sprints also, though he did not win a stakes race. Storm Boot's best son, Delta Storm also spent his career on all weather tracks and grass in Southern California but won only 2 small stakes, both at 6 furlongs. While I am willing to throw his Risen Star race out, I still do not see him being a factor at 1 1/4 mile. Pass. Pony Up is a son of Aikenite, a son of Yes It's True whose top effort was a 2nd in the G1 Breeders' Futurity at 1 1/16 miles on Keeneland's all weather track. When tried on dirt, he was beaten soundly a number of times in mid distances and his only win in a dirt stakes came in the G2 CD Handicap at 7 furlongs. Pony Up's dam, A.P. Petal, is an unraced daughter of A.P. Indy bred with a Mr Prospector daughter that produced many good foals but for the most part with distance limitations. However, Pony Up is in bred 4x4 to Secretariat and crosses with Bold Ruler three times in his 5th generation. Throw in Secretariat's 1/2 brother, Sir Gaylord, as the sire of his fourth dam and you have a horse that will probably run all day. His Holy Bull race is better than it looks on paper and this is the Pletcher horse that most likely will be live on derby day. Definitely one I will keep an eye on and will be a part of my final decision. Vino Rosso is a son of Curlin, champion 3 YO of 2007 and Horse of the Year in 2008. His broodmare sire is Street Cry, sire of both Street Sense and Zenyatta, both confirmed late runners. Street Cry, as a runner, was sent to the lead and set blistering paces throughout his career, but often tired late. He was a classic example of a horse who was asked to run early but probably would have been better as a late type runner. I say this because his female family was loaded with European champions and most of them did their best running late. His Tampa Derby Derby run was not a good indication of his running ability as the pace was crawling, at best, and Velasquez tried to keep him close to have a chance and he did not respond mostly because he had nothing to run at. While I like others better, I know he could surprise with a pace to run at like he will get in the Ky Derby, if Pletcher decides to push forward. Not likely, though. Tiz Mischief is a son of Into Mischief, who won the G1 CashCall Futurity on Hollywood Park all weather track and is a 1/2 brother to Beholder. His broodmare sire, Tiznow, won back to back BC Classic in 2000 and 2001 at 1 1/4 miles. Like his pedigree or not, he has six full brothers and sisters that either placed or won in G1 races at 1 1/4 miles or produced at least one runner that won in G1 races at a classic distance. His full brother, Budroyale, ran 2nd in the 1999 BC Classic after running 2nd in the 1999 Hollywood Gold Cup and adding a second in the 2000 Santa Anita H, all at 1 1/4 miles. Tiz Mischief has been posting fast works since his first work and everything will eventually click. Whether that will be before the derby or in the derby remains to be seen. The Tampa Bay Derby ran in a similar fashion to this year's Risen Star S and horses exiting both of these should be on everyone's list to watch out for. After looking back at the Tampa Bay Derby, I now realized the outcome was the results of very slow paces in both races. That said, I still am on the fence with this horse because he has yet to run to his works. Hoping to see one more race before the derby from him and knowing Romans, it probably will be the Blue Grass S. Hollywood Star is a son of Malibu Moon, sire of 2013 Ky Derby winner Orb on a muddy track. Hollywood Star's dam, Hollywood Story, ran 4th in the 2003 BC Juvenile Fillies against Halfbridled for the third graded stakes in a row against that rival and Ashado as a maiden and came back to win the G1 Hollywood Starlet in her next start. She ended her career winning 4 graded stakes, including the G1 Vanity H at 1 1/8 mile. Her sire was Wild Rush, who won the Illinois Derby at 1 1/8 mile but his biggest win came in the G1 Metropolitan Mile H. Hollywood Story's broodmare sire was Dynaformer, best known as sire of Ky Derby winner Barbaro but also sire of Point Of Entry, a champion turf distance son. Hollywood Star is another trainee of Romans and is probably the best bred son for distance of Malibu Moon this year. However, he has only been seen once this year and that inconsistent makes me wonder if Romans is up to something with this horse. He has been talking about both Tiz Mischief and Free Drop Billy a lot, but has not mentioned this horse. But if you look at the works of each, this one is working faster than his other horses. Ayacara is a son of Violence, a son of Medaglia D'Oro and winner of 3 races in 4 lifetime starts, including the G1 CashCall Futurity on Hollywood Park's all weather track. He fracture a sesamoid bone while finishing 2nd in the Fountain Of Youth and was retired. Violence third dam, Sky Beauty, won the U.S. TC for fillies while winning 15 of 21 lifetime races. His broodmare sire, Pulpit, is the sire of Tapit and grand sire of 2014 Ky Derby & Preakness winner California Chrome. Ayacara has yet to display any resemblance to his pedigree and looks like a fringe player, at best. Not for me until noted improvement is shown. Pass. Sporting Chance is a son of Tiznow, winner of two BC Classic at 1 1/4 mile. His dam, Wynning Ride, won the Iowa Distaff for her only stakes win, but she ran 2nd in the G1 Hollywood Starlet S on Hollywood's all weather track and third in the G1 CCA Oaks at 1 1/4 mile. Her sire is Candy Ride, unbeaten in 6 lifetime starts, including the G1 Pacific Classic where he broke the track record in 1:59.11 and still owns it today. His pedigree on his dam side is tilted heavily towards speed and is one I will try to beat. However, Lukas will do his best to have him ready but I still believe it looks like a fast pace is setting up in this year's derby. Givemeaminit is a son of Star Guitar, who won 24 of 30 lifetime starts, mostly races restricted to Louisiana Breds. His sire is Quiet American, sire of 1997 Ky Derby & Preakness winner Real Quiet, Cara Rafaela(dam of Bernardini) and Quiet Dance(dam of Horse Of The Year Saint Liam and 2nd dam of Gun Runner). Givemeaminit's broodmare sire is Turkoman, a son of Alydar out of a mare by Round Table's son Table Play and U.S. Horse Of The Year in 1986. Sire of Givemeaminit's second dam is Pleasant Colony, winner of the 1981 Ky Derby & Preakness and third in the Belmont S. Sire of his third dam is Illustrious, another son of Round Table from 1926 Belmont S winner Chance Play, a closer relative of Man O' War including the same sire. I absolutely love his pedigree and he will be my bet to win the Ky Derby if he qualifies in this weekend's Louisiana Derby. I have him to win in the first future book at 70-1 and would have placed more on him to win in the next 2 futures if they had not moved him to the field. Instead, I used Enticed in the second future book to win and got 62-1. Either one wins and I will kick back for months. Justify is a son of Scat Daddy, who won the 1 1/8 mile Florida Derby in 2007. Scat Daddy's best foals ran better on grass than dirt, however. Scat Daddy's best performing horse on dirt looks to be Frac Daddy, who ran second in the 2013 Arkansas Derby before finishing 16th in the Ky Derby. El Kabeir won 2 G3 New York preps in the 1 1/16 mile Gotham S and 1M 70Y Jerome s. He ran 3rd in the Wood Memorial and scratched from the Ky Derby on the morning of that race. He would never hit the board again in a graded stakes. Daddy Nose Best won the G3 Sunland Derby for his only graded stakes win on dirt before running 10th in the Ky Derby and 9th in the Preakness. Scat Daddy's son Daddy Long Legs won the UAE Derby at 1 3/16 mile on their then all weather track before finishing last in the 2012 Ky Derby. His only other start on dirt, he finished last in the BC Juvenile Dirt the previous year. Justify's dam, Stage Magic, finished third in the G3 Gardenia S at 1 mile after battling the pace and tiring to finish 6 3/4 lengths behind Groupie Doll. She also finished third in the Pippen S at 1 1/16 mile, again tiring late. Justify's second dam was the G1 placed Magical Illusion. Her G1 placing came in the CCA Oaks after battling Ashado for the lead and stopping cold at the mile pole in the 1 1/4 mile test to finish 3rd beaten 12 lengths. Justify's broodmare sire, Ghostzapper, is a 1/2 brother to City Zip but he won the BC Classic at 1 1/4 mile after setting a slow pace for a G1 race and sprinting home in 47 4/5 seconds at Lone Star Park, a track known for sub 46 splits for distance races. Most of his foals performs better under a mile, like City Zip but he has some that performed well in distance too, unlike City Zip. Which one will Justify be? Only time will tell but I will make him prove to me that he can do what his bloodlines says he can not do against G1 competition. These are the known runners that is still pointing for the derby. There are several good ones that will fly under the radar and you will get good odds. There are several others that will be overbet and ripe to take a stance against. But the final decision will be yours whether you want to try to make a little or make a lot with just a few dollars risked. I personally normally bet a lot(for me) but as always, will only include the few horses I think will have the best chance of surprising. Good luck to all and hopes this helps.
If you recall a few weeks ago I said with the exception of the weekend of Feb 23rd, the action in the sport of Horse Racing is starting to heat up. Well, it’s the weekend of Feb 23rd and I only see two keys races this weekend. The Hal’s Hope, a one mile contest for four year olds and up at Gulfstream Park, and the Buena Vista, a mile race on the grass at Santa Anita. We will come back strong next weekend as I “circled” no less than 11 races including the Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream Park, which is setting up to be a doozy. Before moving forward, I just wanted to point out a few things about last weekend’s action. War of Will was impressive taking down the Risen Star while winning his third straight on the dirt. He catapulted himself into the upper echelon of my soon to be released top 15 Kentucky Derby contenders with that win. Honorable mentions in the Risen Star go to Country House, who once again broke slowly, was five wide on the turn and lugged in badly down the lane (even while being hit left handed by Luis Saez), but came from near last to grab second, and Roiland, who I said I’m not giving up on yet, was absolutely flying late for third at almost 70-1. Equally as impressive were Anothertwistafate (El Camino Real Derby) and Galilean (California Cup Derby). Yes, Anothertwistafate was running on the synthetics, and yes, he bombed in his one and only try on the dirt, and yes, he was allowed a slow pace on the front end, but this horse was VERY visually impressive, leveling out beautifully and absolutely sprinted home through the final furlong. Galilean toyed with the competition in the Cal Cup Derby. Yes, it was restricted field, and yes, he was facing a very short field, but he too was moving powerfully down the lane. It’s time for this colt to face opens/the big boys and the March 9 San Felipe, where Game Winner and the vaunted Instagrand are heading, would be a good spot to try. Honorable mention to Feeling Strong who was in a complete, full out drive down the stretch while valiantly…and I mean valiantly….chasing the winner home while finishing second at 27-1. Although clearly exhausted, and noticeably shortening stride in deep stretch, 62-1 shot Southwest Stakes winner Super Steed made an eye catching, five wide, monster move from the three eighths pole to mid stretch before holding sway and winning by three quarters of a length. The question now is…where do he and we go from here? Not in what race, that has yet to be determined, but in the sense of does he use this race to springboard into the Derby picture? Or does he go back into the obscurity of his last two races which consisted of finishing a well beaten seventh in the Smarty Jones Stakes and fourth in a non Graded Stakes race? Gulfstream Park Race: 11 (4:58PM EST Post) Hal’s Hope Stakes Once again I’m at a disadvantage while looking at these races late Wednesday night/early Thursday morning. At this writing, there is “a 40% chance of rain” in the forecast for the weekend. Luckily the track condition may not matter too much in this race. Sir Anthony rattled off four straight wins to end 2018, including pulling off a major upset (26-1) in the Harlan’s Holiday on this oval last time out. This son of Mineshaft seems to be getting better as he gets older and no worries at all if the rains come as he is three for four on off tracks……..…………Breaking Lucky’s last race was much better than it looks on paper. This son of two time champion Lookin’ at Lucky made the very rare “two moves” in that race, including one when he was six wide at the quarter pole. He was making up ground late and in the end, was only beaten by less than two lengths. He crushed mid-level optionals in his prior race and even though he is 0 for 3 on off tracks, he still looks next best………………. Quip was, at one time, a Kentucky Derby threat. After this good looking four year old by Distorted Humor didn’t make it into the Derby and showed zilch in the Preakness, he was given the rest of 2018 off. He will be making his first start since (over nine months) but his wheelhouse seems to be between seven and eight and half furlongs, so this distance is right. He has been working steadily since the beginning of December over the notoriously deep Payson Park surface, so he might be more “legged up” than your average horse coming off a long break…………………………..Honorable Mentions: Speaking of making their first start in nine months, Tale of Silence will also be doing that in the spot. We last saw this five year old upsetting the Westchester Stakes (12-1) at Belmont way back in May. If you go back even more in his “PPs” you’ll see he chased the likes of West Coast and Practical Joke, so the “back class” angle is there. The facts that the rail post is winning at a 21% clip at this meet and he is two for three on off tracks won’t hurt his chances either………………..If you recall, I said before the Fred Hooper Stakes that Fellowship “is going to pop a big race one of these days”. The son of Awesome of Course then promptly goes out and finishes third at over 70-1 that day, while being beaten by just two lengths. Was that a sign that this horse is cycling back into form or does he fall back into his “also ran” ways? Well, judging by his works, the fact this is his favorite surface (10-2-1-4 over it) and, most importantly, Irad Ortiz Jr. sees fit to take the mount, I’m going with the former. (My Play: $1 trifecta box using all 5. Cost $60.00) Santa Anita Park Race: 8 (7:00PM EST Post) Buena Vista Stakes Vasilika will probably be favored in this spot and rightfully so. This now five year old chestnut mare won 9 of 11 races last year and continued her winning ways in 2019 when annexing the Grade: 3 Megahertz Stakes at 3/5 last time out. She is batting .500 in her career on the turf (14 for 28), her trainer is a sorcerer and she is unbeaten in four tries on the Santa Anita turf course…………The speedy Fahan Mura also looks tough in this spot. This mare set a strong early pace in none other than the Pegasus Turf Cup before completely faltering and finishing last, beaten by a country mile. However, she now returns “home” to Santa Anita where she is 5 for 6 (with a second place finish), she’ll also be the recipient of one of my favorite angles; dropping in class and cutting back in distance. Her last race on this turf course was excellent as she wired the field in the Grade: 3 Robert J. Frankel Stakes, coming home the last three furlongs in a strong :35.3. All of that said, the fact still remains she is 0 for 2 against Vasilika……………………..Ms Bad Behavior has a bad case of “second-itis” as her 14-3-7-2 career record would indicate, including finishing, you guessed it, second in her last four in a row. However, this filly by Blame gets the call for the “show dough” based on her consistency ……………………..Honorable Mentions: Zaffinah has had multiple breaks in her career, signaling to me some physical issues. That said, she finished less than two lengths behind Vasilika in the Megahertz last time out. A repeat of that effort in this spot and she outruns this rating………………………Compelled, who also shows several breaks in her career, could not be bred any better for the turf being by War Front out of a Dynaformer mare. This Florida bred merits a look based on her consistency as well as she has hit the board in 11 of 13 turf tries in her career. (My Play: $1 trifecta box using all 5. Cost $60.00) By: Gerard Apadula Director of Equine Operations and Development Knights of the Round Stable Thoroughbred Racing Team [[email protected]](mailto:[email protected]) 2019- Record: 13-35 = 37% (My Plays: -$406.36) 2018- Record: 107-261= 41% 2017- Record: 92-235 = 39% 2016- Record: 91-229 = 40% 2015- Record: 67-180 = 37% 2014- Record: 29-73 = 40% 2013- Record: 20-59= 34% 2012 -Record: 24-73= 33% 2011 –Record: N/A 2010- Record: 24-74= 33% Little Bets N’ Pieces **** Egyptian Storm, a three year old filly by Pioneerof the Nile out of 2018 Triple Crown winner Justify's dam, Stage Magic, finished fifth in her career debut last Thursday at Tampa Bay Downs. Although she disappointed, she may get something out of that race and we should keep an eye on her moving forward. **** Crack sprinter Imperial Hint, who was coming out of a third place finish in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint, was a fading third at Tampa Bay Downs last Saturday. The “little” gelding just didn’t really seem to be himself in the surprise outcome while falling victim to former claimer Killybegs Captain. Imperial Hint's trainer, Luis Carvajal Jr., and jockey Antonio Gallardo spoke for several minutes after the race, but both found it difficult to put into words on what went wrong with the 6 year old horse who had been unbeaten (3-for-3) at Tampa Bay. Carvajal Jr. was hoping to use this race as a prep for Dubai Golden Shaheen at Meydan in March. "Right now it's (Dubai Golden Shaheen) still a question mark," Carvajal said after the race. "Antonio told me that after a half-mile he wasn't picking up the bit, and usually he will carry you around the turn every time. Today it was like he was not too interested. He switched leads and he was breathing well, but it looked like he just didn't fire”. **** Good to see Victor Espinoza back in the saddle last Monday. The Hall of Famer finished second aboard Gallantlystreaming in the first race at Santa Anita Park. Espinoza fell from the fatally injured Bobby Abu Dhabi during a workout at Del Mar July 22 and had been sidelined because of a fractured vertebra in his neck. "It was great, it was a fun ride," Espinoza said, who has won three Kentucky Derbies (War Emblem in 2002 and California Chrome in 2014), and a Triple Crown winner aboard American Pharoah in 2015. "She ran great, and you can't ask for much more. We got the first race out of the way and now we've got to go on and find the next champion. I wasn't nervous, I was kind of excited going to the starting gate, excited to know I came back and could continue my career."
I'm excited to just write this one up. I loved California Chrome when he was on the Kentucky Derby Trail and I loved him in the quest for the Triple Crown. My heart broke when he lost at Belmont and hated the negative crap said about the owners. Espinoza is a respected member of the jockey colony and Chrome is just a beautiful horse to watch. Chrome also represents my first full season handicapping races and owe some of my early success to his success. I would love to learn how to ride a thoroughbred just to have the chance to ride him once. Talk about a dream, right? Anyway, enough reminiscing, onto the races! Disclaimer: I have no idea how to handicap horses not from North America :) So, any of you fans from across the pond, please chime in here. Race 9 - 1 1/4 miles - Purse: $10,000,000 1) Keen Ice - Famously known for beating American Pharoah in the G1 Travers last August @ Saratoga (1 1/4M race) in 2:01.57. That same time here may spank the field. But this is Dubai and Keen Ice has not won since the Travers. Lost to Mshawish 2 back in the G1 Donn Handicap and had nothing in the Al Maktoum Challenge at Meyden. Last posted workout was a sharp 1:00 in 5F @ GP. Twitter says he looks great but who doesn't say that about a horse that's won nearly $2MM. M/L odds of 20-1. I think there are other horses that are coming into this race more prepared and looking sharp. If he returns to form for this race though, he could win. Recent performances say otherwise... 2) Mshawish - Winner of his last two, a 1 mile G3 and the G1 Donn @ 1 1/8, Mshawish is looking great with bullet workouts (5f in .58.4!). The 1 1/8 was won in 1:47.89... Add 13 or even 14 seconds for the last 1/8, and he's running this race in 2:01 or 2:02. That's really good but the other horses are G1 winners themselves. He could run a great race and win this thing. He did finish 4th in the BCMile carrying 126lbs, not sure how he'll handle the weight here at M/L 8-1 3) Gun Pit - 2nd in the Al Maktoum Challenge at Meyden last out. Winner clocked in at 2:03.09 and he was less than 3 lengths behind. At 30-1, he could be well suited for the exotics. Other than his 7 wins in 9 dirt races, I'm not seeing a compelling reason to think he could win unless he really steps it up from his last race. 4) Mubtaahij - won the Al Naboodah Group UAE Derby G2 at Meydan last year and only ran 4 times since - not winning anything along the way. 4th in the Al Maktoum Challenge at Meyden last out and 5th in a G3 @ Meydan. Beaten by almost half the field in North America and across the pond, I don't understand why he gets a M/L of 15-1. Maybe has a chance to rally into an exotic? I dunno, I'm just not seeing it. 5) Special Fighter - Won last out at the Al Maktoum Challenge at Meyden. 1 1/4 in 2:03.09 by 4 over Gun Pit. Last 5 races are all at Meydan with the Fernando Jara on board. The problem here is that the horse has a definite pattern: win, 6th, win, 6th, win.... So, 6th again? Frosted kicked his butt 2 back. I have a feeling we're starting to see the line between the Grade A team and the B team... We'll put him on the B team. Moving on! 6) Candy Boy - ???? WTF ???? Last race was G1 World Cup 1 year ago (4th behind Chrome)? Last posted work was October 2014? 1 race in 2015 and 0 in 2016? Something isn't right here. What are we missing? Why is he here? The practical person in me says: 50-1... toss it.... The conspiracy theorist in me says: We don't know the whole story. Might be worth a $2 show bet. It'll pay a lot better than Chrome winning. 7) Vadamos - vive la france! 20-1? .... 2nd in an allowance race last out, 13th in a G1 2 back, won a G2 3 back. B team. 8) Hokko Tarumae - Won 861k stakes race last out. 1 5/16 in 2:14.10. 2nd in 1,130K race prior. Been the favorite 4 out of last 5 races. Won 2. 2nd in 2:03.00 at 1 1/4 2 back. Ummmm.... why would he be 20-1? Just because his races were in Japan? How does that translate to racing in Dubai? The class seems to say A team. Frankly, I think this horse could be in the money but like the other shippers, I don't know how he'll do here. Maybe the angle to look at is the horses that have found success at this track already then look for them at the top. I'll keep him in mind for exotics, but this could really start to add up. 9) Frosted - Do we start chanting U.S.A. now? Winner of the G2 Al Maktoum Challenge last out at 1 3/16 in 1:56.67 carrying 126 lbs. The comments in the PP say he won "easily". Bullet workouts. Throw out the BC Classic loss to Pharoah, he also won the PA Derby - G2. 3rd to Keen Ice and Pharoah in the Travers, but that was a while ago. His workouts and easy win at Meydan shows he's adjusted to the local conditions. At 2-1, let's see what he has for this race. I doubt it will be "easy" again. The only caveat is that he hasn't won at 1 1/4. Does he have the stamina to last that last 1/8? 10) Hoppertunity - You have to ask yourself if this is the horseracing version of an Easter Egg at 12-1. He hasn't won at 1 1/4. Won last out in San Antonio @ SA. ITM in last 5 starts, all G1 or G2 races. He may not win, but does he have the stamina to stay in the money at 1 1/4? 11) California Chrome - Winner last out in 150K handicap carrying 132lbs at 1 1/4 in 2:04.24 at Meydan. Won by 2 and had the lead from 300m out (I think he was geared down at the end). 2nd last year in this race to Prince Bishop, Chrome is back and looking good. 3-2... is that patriotism driving down the odds or is he really the contender? 1st or 2nd in his last 5, including G1 and G2 wins. Workouts are sharp, winning form, and twitter updates says he's ready to go. Watch at he comes around the bend and Victor hits the gas peddle. Who will be trying to stay with him?? 12) Teletext - Winner last out at 1 1/2 in 2:29.62 in G1. Prior to that, mixed success in smaller allowance races and 4th in G2 @ 1 1/2m. There's not a whole lot to go on here, but I like that he runs 1 1/2. He can go the distance and may not tire towards the end. According to the PP, he was being eased down in his last race.... at 30-1, he could make for a nice play in the exotics. Alright... what to bet? I like Chrome... he's won here before and carrying more weight. He's looking good and he's won at the distance. Contender. If Frosted is really running as good as they say, then a boxed exacta (9/11) works.... wait, 9/11? Alright, just nevermind.... In lieu of the those two favorites... What about Hokko Tarumae (8) over Candy Boy (6)? Boy, that would pay well... Hmmm, let's see... horse that runs well at Meydan and won or close: 3) Gun Pit (2nd) 5) Special Fighter (1st) 9) Frosted (1st) 11) California Chrome (1st) And winners at the distance? 5) Special Fighter (1st) 8) Hokko Tarumae (1st) 9) Frosted (1st) 11) California Chrome (1st) 12) Teletext (1st) Mix these up any way you like... 11/9/12, 8, 5 or 9,11/9,11/12,8,5 or 8/9/11/12 boxed .10 super... or...... What do I know? This is Mayden and is a $10MM race. Let's chant USA and box 9/11 and call it a day :) The other race I found compelling is Race 6: The $2MM, 6f sprint... M/L favorite is X Y Jet @ 9-5.... Consistently runs 6f in 1:08 This should crush the field....??? Master Kochanwong won last out in 1:08 as well... he's 12-1 I'd take the payout on a 3/2 exacta... Anyway, whatever happens, happens. This is Meydan and almost anything can happen given what it takes to ship a horse there. I suspect there will be plenty of big payouts... Good luck to everyone!
2014-06-04T11:40:44-04:00. The 146th Belmont Stakes will take place Saturday, June 7 at 11:30 a.m. at historical Belmont Park. Belmont is the third and final leg of the coveted Triple Crown and ... At the Belmont Stakes, California Chrome Creates Gambling History: A Sure Thing Bet ... Kentucky Derby 2014-0186 (Photo credit: Bill Brine) ... pulling hard for California Chrome to make history ... California Chrome has a date with destiny on Saturday, seeking to become just the 12th Triple Crown winner when he takes on a field of 10 in the $1.5 million Belmont Stakes. The colt is the 3-5 ... California Chrome has won the Santa Anita and Kentucky Derbys, and the Preakness. (Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images) California Chrome is the heavy favorite to Belmont Stakes betting online at Belmont Park with OffTrackBetting.com. Several Kentucky Derby horses are expected to challenge California Chrome again, but one who won't was Danza, third at Churchill Downs. Trainer Todd Pletcher said he didn't like how the colt emerged from a recent workout at Belmont Park.
California Chrome is bidding to be the first horse since Affirmed in 1978 to win the Triple Crown. ----- Don't miss out on all of the latest action, keep up to date on our social media channels ... Robert Evan's Tonalist rallied late to edge Commissioner to win the June 7 Belmont Stakes (gr. I). California Chrome, bidding for the Triple Crown, finished ... Derby dreams, no matter how unprobable, do come true. Favored California Chrome pulled clear in the stretch to win the May 3 Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum!... California Chrome's owner's rant about his competition. Belmont Stakes 2015 American Pharoah's Belmont Stakes, Triple Crown win NBC Sports - Duration: 3:24. NBC Sports 126,795 views Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner California Chrome gets a bath on Friday, May 30, 2014.
