GAA star's tale of gambling up for book award

Since the merger with the WHA in 1979, only five goalies who came into the NHL in the 1980s or after are in the Hall of Fame: Grant Fuhr, Patrick Roy, Dominik Hasek, Martin Brodeur, and Eddie Belfour. Goalie is certainly not a "specialist" position like kickepunter in football or closer in baseball that is viewed as less important, so is there some kind of unfair standard for modern-day goalies or have there just not been that many great ones in the last 30-40 years?
Here are the eligible goalies in the top 20 currently for wins, but not in the Hall of Fame - I think you could certainly make an argument for a number of them as Hall of Famers:

• Curtis Joseph: 19 seasons/943 games, 454-352-96, 51 shutouts, 2.79 GAA (98 GA%-), .906 SV%, 1x Clancy
• Chris Osgood: 17 seasons/744 games, 401-216-95, 50 shutouts, 2.49 GAA (101 GA%-), .905 SV%, 3x Stanley Cup, 1x All-Star, 2x Jennings
• Mike Vernon: 19 seasons/782 games, 385-274-92, 27 shutouts, 3.00 GAA (102 GA%-), .889 SV%, 2x Stanley Cup, 1x Conn Smythe, 1x All-Star, 1x Jennings
• John Vanbiesbrouck: 20 seasons/882 games, 374-346-119, 40 shutouts, 2.98 GAA (94 GA%-), .899 SV%, 2x All-Star, 1x Vezina
• Andy Moog: 18 seasons/713 games, 372-209-88, 28 shutouts, 3.14 GAA (95 GA%-), .891 SV%, 3x Stanley Cup, 1x Jennings
• Tom Barrasso: 19 seasons/777 games, 369-277-86, 38 shutouts, 3.24 GAA (98 GA%-), .892 SV%, 2x Stanley Cup, 3x All-Star, 1x Vezina, 1x Jennings, Calder

Moreover, what do you think this means for the currently active or not yet eligible goalies who are on the cusp? Luongo and Lundqvist would seem like the best bets, but the others are all relatively comparable in terms of career stats/achievements/accolades - do you think this is a case where 5 or 6 of the below group get in, or does it remain as exclusive as it has been up to now?

• Roberto Luongo: 19 seasons/1,044 games, 489-392-124, 77 shutouts, 2.52 GAA (92 GA%-), .919 SV%, 2x All-Star, 1x Jennings
• Marc-Andre Fleury: 16 seasons/847 games, 466-266-82, 61 shutouts, 2.57 GAA (98 GA%-), .913 SV%, 3x Stanley Cup
• Henrik Lundqvist: 15 seasons/887 games, 459-310-96, 64 shutouts, 2.43 GAA (92 GA%-), .918 SV%, 2x All-Star, 1x Vezina
• Ryan Miller: 17 seasons/780 games 387-281-86, 44 shutouts, 2.61 GAA (96 GA%-), .915 SV%, 1x All-Star, 1x Vezina
• Pekka Rinne: 14 seasons/659 games, 359-201-74, 58 shutouts, 2.42 GAA (97 GA%-), .917 SV%, 2x All-Star, 1x Vezina
• Carey Price: 13 seasons/682 games, 348-250-74, 48 shutouts, 2.49 GAA (94 GA%-), .917 SV%, 1x All-Star, 1x Hart, 1x Vezina, 1x Jennings, 1x Pearson
• Jonathan Quick: 13 seasons/644 games, 325-240-67, 52 shutouts, 2.39 GAA (99 GA%-), .913 SV%, 2x Stanley Cup, 1x Conn Smythe, 1x All-Star, 2x Jennings
• Tukka Rask: 13 seasons/536 games, 291-158-64, 50 shutouts, 2.26 GAA (89 GA%-), .922 SV%, 1x Stanley Cup,1x All-Star, 1x Vezina, 1x Jennings

Countdown to Kickoff 2020: Portland Timbers

Basic Info:

Club Name: Portland Timbers
Location: Portland, Oregon
Stadium: Providence Park. Beautiful timelapse of the recent renovations.
Head Coach: Giovanni Savarese (3rd year)
Captain: Diego Valeri
CEO/Majority Owner: Merritt Paulson
USL Affiliate: Timbers 2
Kits:

• Primary: 2019 Home Release
  
• Secondary: 2020 Away Release
  

2019 in Review

Final Standings: 14-13-7 (W-L-D), 49 pts, +3 GD, 6th in the West
In one word, the 2019 Portland Timbers season was draining. It was an endurance test for the players. It was an endurance test for even the most ardent supporters. And it was certainly an endurance test for a Front Office that invested serious capital into organizational infrastructure. Bookended by snowy affairs in the Rocky Mountains, a year filled with tantalizing potential melted away, leaving a passionate (some might say capricious) fanbase searching for explanations. So, what went wrong?
Well, it was always going to be an uphill battle from the opening kick. Starting with the coldest game in MLS history in Colorado, the Timbers faced a daunting 12-match road trip to accommodate the impressive renovations to Providence Park’s East stand. After accumulating 1 pt from the first six matches, including blow out losses to both FC Cincinnati (!) and then-winless San Jose, the fanbase collectively smashed the panic button entering a match against ex-coach Caleb Porter and his Columbus Crew. However, for the next few months, we witnessed a different team and a different mentality. Three consecutive quality victories against Columbus, Toronto, and RSL brought the team back from the abyss. And a subsequent win against upstart Philadelphia saw Portland finish its road marathon at a respectable 14 points.
Suddenly, the narrative flipped. Pundits consistently listed the Timbers at the top of their power rankings, and with 17 of the final 22 matches at one of the best home-field advantages in MLS, it seemed the positive momentum would prevail indefinitely. More importantly though, the Timbers had found their final piece to the puzzle: an elite, ruthless, and fiery DP striker in Brian Fernandez. Fresh off an impressive campaign with Necaxa in Liga MX, the Argentine became the first player in history to score in five consecutive regular-season games to open an MLS career. His clinicality and intensity raised the level of the squad, leading Steve Clark to don the classic Michael Myers mask from Halloween, declaring Providence Park as a “House of Horrors” for the opponent.
But as it turned out, the team never truly reacclimated to the friendly confines of its home pitch. After four months (incl. preseason) away from home, the squad’s lethal counter-attacking style was far more suited for road matches which provided no impetus to play attractive soccer. Away victories at elite opponents including NYCFC, Seattle, and LAFC provided a stark contrast to disheartening home performances against the likes of Colorado, Orlando, and 10-man Chicago. And soon, the atmosphere off-the-field began to match the team’s sudden struggles on the pitch.
Political viewpoints aside, the Iron Front protests and Diego Valeri’s contract impasse ignited an already contentious relationship between the Timbers Army and FO. Meanwhile, as the squad racked up disappointing home results due to uninspired offensive play, home attendance began to waver more so than years past. While the home sell-out streak remains to this day, the increased number of empty seats in Providence Park was a pretty blunt indication of increased apathy towards the organization.
And then, there was the cherry on top. After missing consecutive matches due to a reported “stomach bug,” it became pretty clear Brian Fernandez was not the same player he was in the early summer. With a complicated and somber family history, Fernandez had struggled with substance abuse issues in the past but seemed to be on the path to full recovery during recent years. However, in October, Fernandez entered the league’s Substance Abuse and Behavioral Health Program, and just as his story arc in green-and-gold faded to black, the Timbers season finished with a whimper. Jefferson Savarino’s 87th-minute goal in snowy Utah knocked the Timbers out of Cup contention. Eleven months following an exciting run to MLS Cup, Portland entered the 2020 offseason weary, drained, and searching for a new beginning.

The Coach

Giovanni Savarese
I expected 2019 to provide more clarity on Giovanni Savarese’s coaching aptitude, but as I sit here one year later, I’m still left with more questions than answers. Gio’s passion and fervor was a refreshing juxtaposition to Caleb Porter’s often smug demeanor, but his far more conservative style still ruffles the feathers of fans who yearn for the days of “Porterball.” While Savarese implemented a high-pressing, dynamic, and open style during his time at the Cosmos, he has yet to find similar success doing so in the Rose City. The past two seasons have exhibited nearly the same progression: start the season trying to play pressing-style soccer, get beat badly, and then resort to a conservative, counter-attacking approach.
The truth of the matter is the conservative style fits the Portland Timbers. When the defense is solid, Diego Valeri and Sebastian Blanco are talented enough to win the game on the counter by themselves. However, this tactical inflexibility is essentially the sole on-field contributor for why the team struggled so mightily down the stretch. When teams packed it in and eliminated the possibility of counter-attacks, Portland could not break down the opposition, resorted to launching an MLS record number of crosses, and got scorched on counters going the other way. A taste of their own medicine if you will.
In 2020, Savarese has no excuse. There’s no road trip to start the season, he has a loaded arsenal of complimentary attacking weapons, and now it’s abundantly clear the Timbers must learn how to control games from the front foot. An identity is useful, but flexibility is a requirement to be great. The club wants to (has to) win now, and they’ve invested significantly into personnel and infrastructure to do so. Now, it’s up to Savarese to lead the team to silverware.

Departures

Brian Fernandez (ST): This one hurts. There are no two ways about it. Fernandez truly convinced GM Gavin Wilkinson and TD Ned Grabavoy that he was past his struggles, but unfortunately, it didn’t turn out to be the case. As Wilkinson stated in The Athletic, “if we could go back and do it again, we wouldn’t have done it,” adding “what I will say is the word fraud exists for a reason.” Rumors suggest Necaxa covered up a failed drug test, and MLS is currently launching a lawsuit to help the club recoup the transfer fee. While Wilkinson suggests Fernandez was a bust, the truth is he scored 15 goals in ~25 games in all comps, showing a ruthlessness in front of goal that rivaled the Martinez’s and Ruidiaz’s of the league. As people who have met him can attest, he’s a vibrant and kind individual regardless of the fact he continues to face difficult obstacles off the field. It's just such a disappointment that it didn’t all come together, and I pray for his health and safety.
Zarek Valentin (RB): This one hurts too. Zarek was a staple of the community, someone who embraced Portland as his home, and was as approachable as any professional athlete. With initiatives like wearing a rainbow ribbon in his hair to fundraise for homeless LGBT+ youth, Zarek was an ideal steward for the club and community. With our lack of fullback depth, leaving him unprotected in the expansion draft was far from a popular decision - one that strained an already frayed relationship between the Front Office and some fans. That said, as amazing as Zarek is, his lack of athleticism was starting to catch up to him. He even admitted some struggles down the stretch, and as more talented/athletic wingers enter the league, his minutes might soon reflect it. Zarek’s versatility, eccentricity, and civic involvement will certainly be missed though. Houston, you’ve got a great dude.
Claude Dielna (CB): The most puzzling move of 2019, it didn’t take an acute observer to recognize that Dielna struggled in MLS. Wilkinson and Grabavoy took a one-year flier on Dielna to be the 4th-stringer, and the outcome was fairly predictable. He possesses a silky left foot which allows him to pick sharp passes out of the back, but he can’t run, can’t jump, and can’t defend 1v1. All of those attributes are pretty essential requirements for playing CB in any league, so it’s no surprise to see the organization not renew his contract. In the end, I wouldn’t suggest Dielna self-immolated like many horrific Timbers CBs of yesteryear (see McKenzie, Raushawn), but I highly doubt anyone will be pining for his return.
Foster Langsdorf (ST): Langsdorf may be used as an example of a Homegrown the Timbers failed to move through the ranks, but letting him go makes sense (unfortunately.) In a 2019 season essential for his development, he failed to make any significant impact at the USL level, and at 24, he would’ve entered the 2020 campaign in the exact spot he did the previous two seasons. Despite some clever finishes in the 2018 USL season, he’s not a legitimate option for the first team in this day in age - especially when similarly-aged strikers Felipe Mora, Jaroslaw Niezgoda, and Jeremy Ebobisse boast far more developed skillsets.
Modou Jadama (CB/RB): Jadama made two total appearances for the first team over two seasons, including one start at RB at Montreal in 2019. To be frank, he didn’t particularly shine as an MLS-caliber player during that time, so his opportunity to cement himself in the organization’s plans came and went. Now at Atlanta United 2, I think he’ll be a good fit for a full-time USL position, although we probably could have used CB depth with Bill Tuiloma’s injury.
Kendall McIntosh (GK): McIntosh was an undersized goalkeeper whose frame and athleticism is reminiscent of the likes of Nick Rimando. For the most part, he was a career T2 netminder that was far too raw in some areas to mount a challenge against experienced keepers like Jeff Attinella and Steve Clark. Now a member of the Red Bulls via the Re-Entry Draft, I doubt McIntosh finds many more minutes outside of the USL, but he seemed like a good dude and we all wish him the best.

2020 Outlook:

So, where does that leave us for the 2020 season? Well, pretty close to the same spot we found ourselves last year. In the preceding two seasons, it was clear the Timbers possessed enough talent to capture silverware, yet surpassing the final hurdle proved to be too much. As a result, continuity in terms of roster management remains among the league’s most stable. Ultimately, Portland took the field March 3 in Colorado with 10 of the 11 starters from MLS Cup the previous December, and this season, the only departure considered a surefire starter was Brian Fernandez.
However, the main difference in 2020 comes down to the acquisitions. The Timbers FO utilized the abnormally long break to load up with an arsenal of talent, providing a stark divergence from the quiet transfer window in 2019. As much as I want to compliment the FO for its hard work this offseason, acquiring fresh blood was essential. Key pieces of the core including Larrys Mabiala, Diego Chara, Sebastian Blanco, and Diego Valeri are all exiting their prime window, and the Timbers must capitalize before that window slams shut. Consequently, four of the five names you’ll see listed in the acquisitions section below were brought in to have an immediate impact and elevate an already talented squad.
As a result, in terms of pure on-paper talent, this is a Top 5 caliber MLS team. Whether Savarese can coalesce that talent into a functioning, dynamic, and successful unit is an entirely different story however. It honestly feels like a boom-or-bust type season, and I’m worried about how they’ll navigate the natural roller-coaster swings that MLS’s parity generates. So, I’ll leave you with this: if the Timbers figure out how to maintain defensive structure without resorting to a conservative shell, they’ll be one of the best teams in the league. If not, all bets are off.

Acquisitions:

Jarosław Niezgoda (ST): The Polish DP doesn’t have to single-handedly replace Brian Fernandez’s goal contributions, but make no mistake about it, the Timbers brought Niezgoda in to make an immediate and profound impact on the scoresheet. At only 24, Jarek arrives with a high pedigree having notched double-digit goals in multiple seasons for one of Poland’s powerhouses in Legia Warsaw. Ultimately, it makes sense European clubs like Bordeaux and Torino were sniffing around the striker, as he’s quite mobile for his size, can finish well with both feet, and is clever with his movements inside the box. And say what you will about the Ekstraklasa, it has a strange knack for producing efficient goalscorers, including Niezgoda’s Legia predecessor Nemanja Nikolic.
However, there is a massive catch: Niezgoda has struggled with injuries throughout his career. In a league famous for physical play, and on a team that has experienced its fair share of injury-riddled seasons, Jarek’s fitness is a legitimate concern. While his congenital heart issues seem to be held in check, Legia fans are quick to mention “he's made of glass, and it's hard to keep him in shape for the whole season.” The Timbers’ physio staff will have their work cut out for them to keep Niezgoda on the pitch and scoring goals.
Note: Niezgoda has yet to feature in preseason due to the recovery timeline from a heart ablation procedure during his medical. We likely won’t see him in the XI for the first few weeks of 2020.
Felipe Mora (ST): Niezgoda’s injury-checkered past is an important factor for why Mora’s arrival is such a critical addition. The 26-year-old Chilean seemingly fell into the Timbers lap in a series of fortuitous circumstances, as they acquired him on a TAM loan deal from Pumas in Liga MX. Normally, Mora would be a DP caliber acquisition, and in fact, he was considered a serious target for the final DP slot last year before the club opted for Fernandez. However, after falling out of favor, Pumas were willing to let him go in a manner that accommodated Portland’s limited remaining budget space. Mora provides a divergent style from Niezgoda’s channel-running and Ebobisse’s hold-up ability. He operates on a true poacher’s instinct, and his industrious approach will provide a complementary presence to any of the other strikers.
Dario Župarić (CB): If there’s one offseason acquisition that is more critical to the team's success than the others, Dario Župarić is that guy. Throughout the Timbers MLS history, CB has easily been their most troublesome spot, and they’ve yet to replace Liam Ridgewell’s contributions since his departure last year. Say what you will about Liam’s off-the-field persona: his magnetism, leadership, organizational skills, and distribution were undoubtedly influential to the club’s performance.
Župarić, for lack of a better statement, is essentially the true Ridgewell replacement. At 27-years-old, the Croatian arrives with 90+ matches under his belt at Pescara in Italy and Rijeka in Croatia, a club that has already produced productive MLS players like Héber and Damir Kreilach. Early reports in training regard him as “smooth and confident,” and even if that confidence has gotten the better of him occasionally, those characteristics exemplify why Gio had never received “more messages from friends saying you’ve brought in a very good player.” In the end though, the pressure is on Dario to perform on the pitch. MLS athleticism poses a unique challenge, and there’s little flexibility to compensate for any struggles. His adjustment to MLS must be quick.
Yimmi Chara (RM): Recognize the last name? In a courtship that has lasted as long as the Timbers MLS era itself, Wilkinson finally brought the youngest Chara brother to the Rose City. Acquired as a DP from Atletico Mineiro, there is concern about whether Yimmi’s G+A output will justify the reported $6 million transfer fee. Throughout his career, he’s never been the type of player to light up the scoresheet, but it’s difficult to dispossess him and he provides lightning-quick pace that this roster lacks. With multiple attacking options, I honestly don’t anticipate much pressure to fill the stat sheet, and his familial connection to the organization should facilitate a more seamless transition. Plus, it’s difficult enough for the opposition to face one Chara - it’ll certainly be a pain in the ass to confront two.
Blake Bodily (LM): The HG left-footer is a fairly highly-regarded prospect coming out of the Pac-12, and he showed flashes of quality during his time at T2 a few years ago. With the depth on the wings, I can’t imagine he’ll see much of any first-team minutes. I could be wrong, especially if things go south for any reason, but let’s revisit this signing a year or two from now.

A word on everyone else:

Goalkeepers:
Steve Clark (GK): Without a doubt, Clark was the surprise player of 2019. Boasting the highest save percentage and second-lowest GAA in the league, Clark made numerous highlight-reel saves after taking over for Jeff Attinella in late April. While the occasional mental lapse defined much of his career up to this point, the 33-year-old was nearly flawless in all phases of play last season. However, there’s legitimate concern that this outstanding form is not replicable throughout the next campaign. After Attinella’s regression to the mean following a career year, one can understand why the Front Office might have been apprehensive to give him a sizable pay raise - even if his performances warranted it. That said, Clark’s got the new deal in his pocket and will certainly be the starter opening day vs Minnesota.
Jeff Attinella (GK): As highlighted above, few Timbers had a more ill-fated 2019 campaign than Jeff Attinella. After a torrid 2018 season, Attinella’s performances were marred by poor decision after poor decision until his year concluded with season-ending shoulder surgery. You have to feel for the guy too, as for the first time in his career, he entered an MLS regular season as the unquestioned starter. We’ll see how he recovers from the shoulder injury, but if Clark’s consistency remains and Aljaž Ivačič shows promise, I wouldn’t be shocked if the Timbers move him while he still has some value.
Aljaž Ivačič (GK): If there’s a Timber who had a more disastrous 2019 than Jeff Attinella though, it’s probably Aljaž Ivačič. The 26-year-old Slovenian was acquired last offseason to be the goalkeeper of the future, but a significant leg surgery last February took him out of team activities for most of the year. When he did return with T2 in late summer, things did not look great to say the least. It is undoubtedly difficult to adapt to a new country, but Ivačič’s struggles were worryingly apparent. Most of his goals conceded for T2 looked similar to this, where he was either in the wrong position, extremely hesitant to come off his line, or strikingly late to react to the opponent. These are fundamental issues that can hopefully be chalked up to rust and then addressed with a full preseason. If not, Aljaž might go down as one of the worst signings in club history.
Defenders:
Jorge Moreira (RB): Moreira possesses the talent to be the best RB in the league, but sporadically found himself a liability last season. After years spent with Argentine powerhouse River Plate, the 30-year-old Paraguayan was naturally inclined to push up the pitch since his teams had often dominated the game’s flow. As a result, the Timbers’ conservative style and league’s athleticism caught him off guard, as he had an unfortunate propensity to be out of position early in 2019. However, he mostly adjusted over the course of the year, and his power, crossing ability, and dynamism are crucial to the team.Even with the occasional poor clearance, Moreira is a lockdown starter and few RBs in MLS have his offensive weaponry and pedigree. His loan only lasts until June 30 however, though I’d fully expect the Front Office to lock him down on a permanent deal.
Update: the Timbers right-side defense has been tragic this preseason, and much of that has to do with Moreira’s play. He’ll have to re-adjust or else he’ll revert back to being a liability again
Larrys Mabiala (CB): With his pearly-white smile, cool demeanor, and commanding aerial ability, the big French-Congolese CB is one of the most respected players in the Timbers’ locker room. In a position that is a perennial revolving door of underperforming wreckage, Mabiala has been the one “written-in-ink” starter since mid-2017, and his veteran savvy is integral to the squad’s success. But at age 32, Larrys’ value is not embodied by his individual qualities but more so the partnership he forms with Župarić. His physical presence will always be vital to an otherwise undersized team, however, he lacks the turn of pace and distribution ability that would place him among the elite CBs in MLS. As a result, Larrys and Dario must discover how to paper over each other’s weaknesses by performing to their unique capabilities: Župarić covers ground well and can initiate attacking movements while Mabiala handles physical strikers and cleans up loose balls in the 18. In the end, his consistency will be as influential as any player on the roster. If for any reason he performs below the norm, there is simply not enough quality depth behind him to overcome it.
Bill Tuiloma (CB): Tuiloma is not spectacular by any means, but he’s an ideal player to provide sporadic minutes. The 24-year-old Kiwi is cheap, versatile, and possesses enough technical quality to score the odd banger. It’s a shame a calf injury will rule him out for the next few weeks, as the team could use his flexibility for spot duty at CB, RB, and even defensive midfield. If he recovers fully and Župarić struggles to adapt to the league’s athleticism, expect him to mount a challenge for starting minutes.
Julio Cascante (CB): The Costa Rican CB is best described as a high-ceiling, low-floor player whose ceiling continues to lower year after year. As far as backup CBs go, he’s probably adequate, but the guy went from a fringe national-teamer to virtually off-the-radar since his arrival in Portland. Though his height and build forge a formidable aerial presence, he’s yet to resolve occasional mental lapses and improve his subpar distribution. But Julio’s most maddening characteristic is his inconsistency. Perhaps the best thing you can say about a Cascante performance is that you didn’t notice him. Unfortunately, he tends to stick out for all the wrong reasons. Maybe a little more familiarity with the league will help the 26-year-old raise his level in 2020. I’m not exceedingly hopeful though.
Jorge Villafaña (LB): El Sueño hasn’t been the same player since his departure to Santos Laguna after MLS Cup 2015. Still an excellent crosser, Villafaña really struggled with pacey wingers towards the beginning of the season, although there are some whispers he was often gutting through minor knocks. Even with an uptick of form over the course of the campaign, there is legitimate concern he’s lost a step and will be a liability in the backline. I love the man as much as the next guy, but I’d say the uneasiness is valid. Let’s hope he proves us all wrong.
Marco Farfan (LB): The lack of confidence in Villafaña would be less of an issue if Zarek Valentin were still suiting up in the green-and-gold because Marco Farfan is as fragile as a potato chip. The HG LB is not the most athletic individual, but his technical quality is probably proficient enough to play at this level. Farfan still has to evolve as a 1v1 defender, though he’ll certainly get looks this year if he can manage to stay healthy.
Note: We still need a backup RB. It could be former NYRB, IMFC, and Dynamo player Chris Duvall. 20-year-old Venezuelan Pablo Bonilla is another option, but he’s at T2 for the meantime.
Midfielders:
Diego Valeri (CAM): When all is said and done, I hope MLS fans and media take a moment to appreciate just how good Diego Valeri was. Since 2015, we’ve witnessed impressive names take home the Landon Donovan MVP award including Giovinco, Villa, Josef, and Vela. Sandwiched in between those names you’ll find Diego Valeri. Only the ninth MLS player to reach the elusive 70G, 70A Club, Valeri took the Timbers from a hapless expansion side to a perennial playoff contender. And from my admittedly biased perspective, I don’t think he gets enough credit for doing so. But don’t take it from me, take it from Albert Rusnak, who accurately captures the true essence of the Maestro in this interview. For the miracles performed on the pitch, his importance and presence in the community are just as admirable.
However, times are changing for Valeri, and it’s best exemplified by the fact we almost lost him over a contract dispute this offseason. By taking a TAM deal, Diego not only affirmed his commitment to the organization but allowed them to make moves to best ensure he doesn’t retire with only a single major MLS title to his name. I’d expect the Timbers staff to exercise more load management with him this campaign, but by no means does that change his status as a pillar of the club and community. Build the statue.
Sebastian Blanco (LM/RM): Sebastian Blanco is one of those guys who never seems to score a bad goal. The fiery Argentine may not be the face of the franchise off the pitch, but the decision to extend his DP contract over Valeri is a hint towards Blanco’s importance on the field. After posting his second consecutive double-digit assist campaign, Blanco’s quality across all attacking midfield positions is unquestioned. That said, 2020 is a pivotal season for the Timbers’ oldest Designated Player. Soon to be 32, the clock is ticking on Blanco’s heyday, and he’ll certainly aspire to outperform 2019’s underwhelming tally of six goals from 106 shot attempts. Now surrounded by a wealth of complimentary attacking pieces though, I’d expect a rejuvenated Seba come March. Bet the over on six goals.
Diego Chara (CDM): If there’s anyone who can conquer the inevitability of fathertime, Diego Chara is the guy. Soon to be 34-years-old, Chara’s performance metrics — involving areas such as speed and distance covered — reached all-time highs last year. His importance to the club over the past decade cannot be overstated, and we were all ecstatic to see him finally partake in an MLS All Star Game last season. The Colombian possesses a pillowy first touch, an immense soccer IQ, and a fearless presence in the middle of the park, and there simply will be no replacing him when he finally does choose to retire. But to be honest with you, I think he’s still got a few more Best XI caliber seasons in him. He just ages like a fine wine.
Andrés Flores (CM): Hell, I’m just gonna copy and paste exactly what I wrote last year because it’s still just as applicable. Andres Flores is like a Toyota Camry - solid if unspectacular. He doesn't have the sexy style that will garner all the attention, but when push comes to shove and you need to get from point A to point B, he’ll do the job (at a very low price too!). Look for him to assist in spot-duty once he returns from injury, but his most important contributions will likely be found in the little things off the pitch.
Cristhian Paredes (CM): At only 21 years of age, the full Paraguayan international started over 30 matches the past two seasons and has also emerged as the surefire midfield partner to Diego Chara. After a 2018 campaign that saw a significant adjustment period, Paredes looked far more composed in 2019, adding late-runs into the box into his arsenal midway through last season. However, no longer on loan from Club America, Paredes will face more organizational pressure to be a day-in, day-out starter this campaign. His ranginess and ability to break up play are unquestioned, but he needs to become a bit cleaner on the ball and more confident playing out of tight spaces. That said, there’s a reason the club has invested more capital into the promising midfielder: he has the potential to be a significant contributor for years to come.
Marvin Loría (LM/RM): In the next few seasons, I’d wager Marvin Loría will become the poster child for the Timbers youth development structure. With a comparatively underdeveloped and shallow Homegrown talent pool, Portland picks up guys like Loría out of foreign youth programs to develop through the Timbers pipeline. The 22-year-old Costa Rican international showed significant promise last season, and he can play a true inverted winger role - a unique style in terms of this roster. While he may see time at LM and CAM, I love him cutting in from the right, as he can deliver bangers like this and allow Jorge Moreira to bulldoze forward. At a league minimum salary, Loría provides the cheap and talented depth which makes this attack’s outlook so promising. I can’t wait to see what strides he makes this season (once he returns from an underpublicized/undisclosed injury).
Andy Polo (RM): Not many people in the Timbers fanbase understand why Andy Polo is still on the roster, let alone competing for starting minutes. In 2,860 MLS minutes, the Peruvian winger has only managed a dismal one goal and three assists - a statline that is considerably worse than ineffective wingers of the past including Kalif Alhassan, Sal Zizzo, and Franck Songo’o. He’s not an outright liability, and occasionally puts in a shift defensively, but he essentially exists solely to occupy space. Now entering his third season, Polo’s best string of matches came as the third CM in a 4-3-2-1 just before the 2018 World Cup. He’s since gathered looks in preseason as a #8 in a 4-3-2-1 and showed flashes but is still incomplete. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Tomas Conechny (CF/LM/RM): The 21-year-old Argentine enters the 2020 campaign a relative unknown, and though the club thought enough of him to exercise his full-time purchase option from San Lorenzo, his fit on the squad has yet to be fully discerned. Rumored to be one of the better headers-of-the-ball on the team, he showed occasional creative sparks in late-game situational appearances but has yet to prove he deserves starting minutes. We hear quotes akin to “he doesn’t yet know how good he can be,” but it still isn’t obvious that a particular position suits him well or if he even possesses a skillset that allows him to be a difference-maker at this level. For all intents and purposes, he’s likely to end up Diego Valeri’s understudy even if Conechny has yet to show the same precision and danger at a playmaking second-forward role. As a result, it remains to be seen if the high-rated prospect grows into a significant piece of the puzzle or if his lack of positional clarity ultimately hampers his development.
Dairon Asprilla (RM): Dairon Asprilla plays at an all-star caliber level if one of two things are true: the Timbers are on the verge of postseason elimination or he’s playing on T2. If neither of those two things are true, he’s often more useless than a turn signal on a BMW. Some wonder if he possesses compromising pictures of Wilkinson or MP, otherwise there’s very little to explain why he’s one of the longest-tenured Timbers - especially considering he’s been in-and-out of the doghouse almost every year. Word out of training suggests he’s been one of the best players in camp, but we’ve been down this road before - if it’s not Oct. or Nov., Asprilla often looks lost on the pitch.
Sidenote: 99% of Dairon’s shot attempts get thwarted due to his foolishly long windup, but when he does get a hold of one, they stay hit.
Eryk Williamson (CM): The HG midfielder (by way of D.C.) found starting minutes in spot appearances last fall, and he looked competent if unremarkable. For T2, Williamson often occupied more advanced positions, but I think he projects best as a ball-shuttling #8 in this squad. In particular, I can see him fitting into Andy Polo’s old role as a CM next to Chara and/or Paredes in a 4-3-2-1, as his passing and combination play provide a diverse look from the other two. Overall, Williamson finds himself in a decent situation to get game action this year, and I’m interested to see how he develops and grows in confidence in 2020.
Renzo Zambrano (CDM): Another international brought through the T2 pipeline, Zambrano is essentially Diego Chara’s backup at the #6. Since George Fochive left following the 2015 season, the Timbers have struggled to find a suitable defensive backup in the central midfield. Renzo is now that guy. The 25-year-old Venezuelan appeared in 10 matches last season and struggled immensely in fixtures against Colorado and Atlanta, but showed flashes of positivity in thrashings of Houston and Vancouver. 2020 will require more consistency from Zambrano who doesn’t possess the same physicality or power as Chara - but then again, few do. As a result, if I were Savarese, I’d try to mold Zambrano into a fulcrum/anchor type midfielder in the form of a Uri Rosell or Scott Caldwell. He’s a capable passer, and if he simplifies his game to shield the backline, he’ll be an asset to the team. If not, he’ll likely over-extend himself, and his midfield partner will be forced to work more tirelessly to maintain solid defensive shape. Renzo is likely the first option off the bench whenever Chara or Paredes are unavailable, so his growth is critical to the team’s success this year.
Forwards:
Jeremy Ebobisse (ST): Since Niezgoda and Mora’s arrival, some fans and media have denounced the organization for burying the 23-year-old American on the depth chart and hindering his development. Here’s why I think that’s an overly-sensationalized viewpoint:

1. As Wilkinson has correctly identified, Ebobisse will miss a good chunk of the early season for Olympic qualification, and with Niezgoda’s injury history, there needs to be other legitimate options to start upfront (i.e. not Dairon Asprilla).
   
2. In 2018, Ebobisse entered the season ‘stuck’ behind two DP-type strikers in Fanendo Adi and Samuel Armenteros. Guess who emerged on top? Ebobisse. There will be multiple competitions, two-striker formations, and rotations that allow him to earn quality minutes.
   
3. This idea that the organization is almost trying to sabotage his development is an outrageous claim. Ebobisse was the only player on the squad to play in every match last season and only finished behind Chara, Blanco, and Valeri in terms of total minutes played. Granted, he played a fair few matches at LW (not ideal, but he wasn’t outright terrible), but the team did have its best stretch of success with him and Fernandez on the pitch together.
   

But the one factor people must acknowledge is this: Ebobisse still hasn’t developed the it factor that other MLS strikers have - at least not yet. When Fernandez arrived, his ruthlessness was a stark contrast to Ebobisse’s often less-goal-hungry runs and occasional lack of clarity in the final third. Jeremy is a decent finisher, even with a few missed sitters, but he’s still not consistent enough with the direct runs off the shoulder that separate good from great. He’ll hopefully continue to develop a wider range of skills, but he’s not yet the guy to put this team over the top.
Predicted Starting XI:
Primarily: 4-2-3-1
Other likely options: 4-3-2-1 or 4-4-2
Best Case Scenario:
A top playoff seed and a challenge for either the Supporter’s Shield or MLS Cup. Savarese effectively implements tactical flexibility, Niezgoda and Mora combine for 20+ goals, and Cristhian Paredes takes the next step forward in his development. While Župarić locks down the defense, one of Valeri or Blanco mounts a Best XI campaign, and Diego Chara makes a second consecutive All-Star Game appearance. Sprinkle in a Cascadia Cup alongside a harmonious relationship between the Front Office and Timbers Army, and you have a damn successful year.
Worst Case Scenario:
Pretty much the opposite of what you see above. Niezgoda can’t stay healthy while the core pieces’ form collectively falls off a cliff. Those in the Army who hold a personal vendetta against Merritt Paulson blow a trivial issue out of proportion causing a full-on revolt from the supporter’s group. Savarese proves to be an average coach with exploitable flaws, and the team fails to qualify for the playoffs in a competitive Western Conference. Significant spending, no tangible results. A wasted year.
Realistic Scenario:
Well, either of those two scenarios could qualify as realistic. But like all Timbers seasons, it’s most realistic to be somewhere in between. There’ll be stretches of outright panic, and there’ll be other times where we all convince ourselves the Timbers will win MLS Cup. Some of the signings hit: let’s go with Župarić - while other signings underwhelm due to extenuating circumstances: probably Niezgoda (and his glass skeleton). The team finishes in the middle of the pack - a team that no one wants to face in October - but one that is equally liable to beat themselves.
Prediction:
Even for someone as pessimistic as I am, I won’t predict the worst-case scenario. Nevertheless, I can’t shake the discouraging feeling that the Timbers will squander its immense talent again. A disappointing 6th or 7th place finish is in store after another taxing roller-coaster season. However, I’ll go out on a limb to say Portland does win a Cascadia Cup or USOC - some sort of silverware that convinces everybody the obvious flaws can be overcome in 2021. Blanco has a great 2020 season. The other pieces show flashes brilliance, yet can’t quite string together enough consistency to let the attack fire on all cylinders. Savarese will keep his job but enters the 2021 campaign on the hotseat. It’ll be another case of “close, but not close enough.”

Online Resources

Official Links: Website | Twitter
Local Coverage: Oregon Live | Stumptown Footy
Best Twitter follow: Chris Rifer
Best Read: Jamie Goldberg’s article on Fernandez didn’t age well, but it’s extremely important to understand his tragic life story.
Subreddit: timbers

#RCTID

The first (preseason) DFS content is available tomorrow on Draftkings! It's time to get back into the swing of things.
Introduction
Many people commented or PMed me last season saying that my posts helped them win more money, more frequently. I know I personally missed out on some big paydays by ignoring my own advice. (Sigh.) I’ve been playing DFS hockey since 2014 and have become gradually more invested in it over the past few seasons. I started playing $1 single entry tournaments and I’ve been hooked since my first entry placed 47/3448. You’ll generally find me in single entry tournaments on Draftkings and whichever site has the better tournament payout on the larger Tuesday, Thursday and Saturday slates.
I have the same username on Draftkings, Fanduel and Rotogrinders if you’re looking for me elsewhere.
Disclaimer
I would recommend that you only play DFS as a form of entertainment. Hockey is a volatile sport where anything can happen any given night: the underdog could win, your starting goaltender could be injured, etc. While under no circumstances should you hold me liable should you lose, please take me into consideration if you do happen to come upon a big payday as a result of my advice ;)
I’d advise restraint during the preseason and month of October while lines and systems are settling and the sample size is small. The whole point of using data to build your lineups is to reduce randomness, so your bankroll should be saved for when the league is more predictable. However, if you’re a degenerate like me, you likely have enough data about your personal habits to know that is unlikely.
Slates
The NHL schedule dictates larger slates on Tuesdays, Thursdays and Saturdays, with fewer games on days between. Larger slates tend to come with higher prize pools funded by more entries. Since a larger slate means more players are on the ice, that generally decreases specific player ownership. Though that increases your chance of your players having lower ownership if they go off, it also makes it more difficult to pick players that score more than the rest of the field, since there’s a higher probability more goals are scored. (And that’s what makes it fun!)
While there are also all day, afternoon, evening and late night slates, as well as Showdown and whatever else have been introduced lately, the payout for these contests tends to be less overall for the same entry fees, while the difficulty of winning them is comparable, so I tend to avoid them with few exceptions.
Contest Type
Whether you’re playing cash games (50/50, multipliers, head-to-head), satellites, or GPP (Guaranteed Prize Pool) tournaments will greatly affect your strategy. In GPP’s you’re looking for highest upside to get the most overall points possible to win the tournament. In cash, you’re looking for the highest floor to ensure you’re above the fold. In general, play cash games for security and GPP’s for the thrill.
I’m sure there are a lot of pros that play cash games regularly because you can easily double your wager any given night, which at minimum helps pad your bankroll to cover any GPP losses. I personally don’t like the upside when weighing risk/reward and therefore prefer to play GPP’s almost exclusively. However, cash strategies can also translate to smaller tournaments because you don’t need as much variance to set yourself apart from other lineups.
Single-Entry vs Multi-Entry
Daily fantasy hockey is always pitching itself as a game of skill while trying to distance itself from gambling for legal reasons. I contend that single entry tournaments are the truest test of skill here because each entry holds the same weight. These are my preferred contests by far, though there are rarely more than two any given night with a payout worth the ticket price.
While you technically have a better chance of placing first by maxing your entries in GPP’s every night, it’s impractical for most players, especially the novice. You can see in the Draftkings Results Database that even seasoned veterans rarely employ this strategy as well. For what it’s worth, some of my biggest paydays have also been ones where I made the fewest amount of entries. Your mileage may vary.
Rake
Rake is simply the house cut taken by whichever site you’re gambling on. Along with entry fees it has increased in recent years and stabilized around 9-13% depending on the contest. If all things are considered equal, target contests with a lower rake, as more prizes are being paid out to the contestants. That also means GPP’s and satellites that are not filling up before the deadline can offer you a slight advantage.
Bankroll Management
You should care about how much money you’re gambling because no one else is going to. Bankroll management doesn’t factor much into my decision making simply due to the scale I operate at, so I’ll only offer this advice: winnings are not winnings until you withdraw them, and only if you haven’t deposited more than that originally. It boggles my mind when people praise themselves for winning a grand after dumping two the month before. Set an amount you’re comfortable losing and don’t deposit more than that when it’s gone. There are free bankroll trackers available online if you want an overview of how you’re doing, such as Daily Fantasy Nerd, as well as restrictions on each site if needed.
Point Systems
This whole post was based around the 2018-19 point system for both Fanduel and Draftkings. However, it was Recently Announced that adjustments would be made to the Draftkings point system this coming season. Here’s what you need to know:
Prior to this year, there used to be relative parity between the Fanduel and Draftkings scoring systems. Aside a few discrepancies, like Fanduel awarding minor powerplay point bonuses, Draftkings accounting for goaltender points and hat trick bonuses, and a slight variation between block and shot values, Fanduel scores were basically 4x Draftking ones and the only significant differences were salary discrepancies and lineup construction.
No longer. Not only have the Draftkings points been bumped up overall but their relative values have changed. A goaltender win is now worth less relative to a goal. While it used to take 15 saves to make up a goal, it will now take about 12. There will also be two points awarded for overtime losses.
There are other minor changes to the basic scoring system, like assists and shots on goal are worth slightly less relative to a goal, but the real change will be in the new bonus system. Here you will see an additional three points awarded for hat tricks, 35+ saves, 5+ shots, 3+ blocks and 3+ point games. That 3 point modifier also stacks with the hat trick bonus, which is, frankly, ridiculous. This will significantly change the worth of playmakers, with two assists (10 points) now being worth less than a player with five shots on goal (10.5 points) without hitting twine.
Draftkings claims this makes the game “more exciting” but right now it just seems like it’ll be more random. I fail to see how anyone that regularly plays DFS with any volume benefits from this change, outside of possibly drawing in more inexperienced entries and increasing the overall player and prize pool. The NHL players gaining these bonuses are, for the most part, already the top performers in those categories. Additional incentives are hardly necessary to have Burns or Ovechkin any given night. For others, certain punt plays could see a significant boost, though it makes little sense to me why two blocked shots would be worth 2.6 points but a third bumps that up to 6.9.
Regardless, I still see linestacking being advantageous with these changes.
Linestacking
Outside of choosing a winning goaltender, using players on the same line is the most basic DFS advice you can give a beginner. Since there are so few goals scored in a hockey game and most of those goals correlate with an assist, you typically want to pick players with good linemates. The odds of stacking two corresponding lines and getting multi-point games that win you money is far greater than selecting six players who have standout individual performances on any given night.
Depending on whether you play on Fanduel or Draftkings will determine what kind of strategies are available to you, as there are tighter salary constraints on Draftkings but looser restrictions. For example, on Fanduel you’re capped at 4 players from each team. On Draftkings, you only need 3 different teams represented, so you can technically play the entire top six from one team instead. Despite that, you cannot do the 4-4-1 stack available on Fanduel, where you pick two lines with their corresponding defensemen and a goaltender. Instead, you have to opt for a 4-3-1 stack, either using the utility position for a punt play (typically not ideal) or alternating one of the defensemen from a different team (preferable).
I don’t like to break up line stacks because I’ve been playing long enough to see it come back to haunt me, but there’s always an argument for dropping an underperforming third wheel or due to salary constraints.
Powerplay Correlation
Roughly 20% of NHL goals are scored with the man advantage. Though not strictly necessary, players who have top powerplay minutes are more likely to score goals. If an entire line has full powerplay correlation, even better. There are few teams worth targeting for a powerplay stack where the players are not also linemates. However, last season the Lightning, Panthers, Sharks, Pens, Flames, Leafs and Caps all had great powerplay success with players combined from two or more lines. This can make a decent contrarian play against a weak penalty kill team or simply to deviate from the standard chalk on a smaller slate.
Percentage of Ownership
Generally speaking, whichever team(s) has the highest Vegas odds to win, and especially a high oveunder, will also be the favored teams, or chalk, for DFS. Since only 20% of GPP entries will profit and the chalk lines are likely to garner 20%+ ownership, if that line goes off it could break the slate (you’ll need that line to win).
Just because a team is a favorite to win does not mean they’re your safest option. Primarily because there are no safe options, it’s also crucial to maximize your success by differentiating your lineups from others. Use Vegas odds and “expert” predictions as a guideline for what you think other people will be targeting, and keep this in mind when building your own lineups. Looking for the lines that could produce but be underlooked (and therefore under-owned) is necessary for a big payday.
The larger the slate, the more likely you can profit from chalk. Likewise, the smaller the slate, the higher upside for contrarian options. On a 12 game slate there are likely to be several favorites, decreasing the overall ownership percentage of any given line. On a three or four game slate, more people are likely to gravitate to one or two lines. Whether you can actually afford to stack these lines together is another matter entirely. Sometimes the chalk lines are so prohibitively expensive that you have to make great sacrifices elsewhere in your lineup.
Salary Constraints
I don’t fully understand how either Fanduel and Draftkings come up with their player salaries because they often feel arbitrary. Kase was priced at floor on Fanduel for weeks, despite putting up solid production on the first line for the Ducks. There were thousands of dollars difference in Chabot’s salary when he was on a tear as well. Some players, like Shattenkirk, appeared to have inflated salaries solely due to name recognition. Occasionally there are straight up errors, like Keith Yandle was priced at floor by mistake for almost a week on Draftkings last January. Suffice to say that it’s worth analyzing the value of each player on a line when stacking, as well as exploring individual salary trends, as players are often propped up by things that don’t translate to DFS production.
It’s rare that you’ll pick two lines that fit so comfortably you can afford top defensemen and a goaltender as well. If you have the salary left over to flesh out your lineup with Burns, Letang and Vasilevskiy, it’s hard to make an argument not to. More likely you’re going to be looking for pivots, a line that has a value player that brings down the total cost, or ultimately sacrificing somewhere in your lineup.
A solid pivot for me was likely an outlier getting top powerplay time (ex. Pirri), an individual performer on a depth line (Ex. Donato; Perreault), an unrecognized rookie (ex. Svechnikov, Chabot), someone stepping in for an injury in a lineup, or a cheap defenseman with offensive upside (ex. Ekholm).
It’s also not uncommon for a star to have less talented linemates. Sometimes that artificially inflates the cost of those linemates, but sometimes it makes the line a decent budget option. You’ll likely find these players alongside McDavid, Matthews, Crosby or Stamkos, for example, when their lines are not loaded with their corresponding Kucherovs or Draisaitls.
Some lines are so prohibitively expensive they’re virtually unstackable at all, though these lines are also typically matchup proof. Because of the sacrifice required, these lines are often worth targeting on a larger slate or against tougher opposition where they’ll fetch lower ownership but still have the potential for a hat trick or more. Refer to COL1, BOS1, TBL2, etc.
Contrarian Play
Contrarian here simply means rejecting the consensus favorite, but it’s often confused with simply picking a line from a bad team to go against the grain. Note there’s rarely a good argument to pick a contrarian goaltender, outside of high upside for their salary. Keep in mind that Vegas odds, really even the best teams in the NHL, are roughly 60-65% likely to accurate project as a winner, and that winning alone is not always enough to make a goaltender valuable because they might not see a lot of shots.
So when should you play contrarian? One of my favorite contrarian options on Fanduel specifically is when a line’s players have the “wrong” position. This happens when a player was previously playing out of position, and Fanduel is notorious for being slow to respond to these changes. Since it’s more difficult to stack a CCW or WWW line, these picks are naturally contrarian because they’re harder to fit into a lineup.
Another option might be targeting secondary scoring on depth lines. Not only is this an option for affordability that’s easier to stack, but it’s a decent pivot off the chalk for a team that’s a favorite to win. It’s worth noting that a team playing on home ice has the advantage of last change and therefore can choose their deployment. If you’re targeting against a team with a solid shutdown line on home ice, a secondary scoring line might end up getting better deployment and production. Likewise, if you know a line will be forced to play a shutdown role, you might want to consider alternatives. This is called line matching and may differ on a nightly basis.
One option that’s often overlooked is a game stack. That is, picking one line from either teams in one game. When two teams are porous defensively or have a historic rivalry, chances are if a goal is scored early in the first period the ice could rapidly open up and the game will become a shooting gallery.
Finally, though this option is restricted only to Draftkings, you can stack two lines from the same team with each other. This could be the entire top six or a full five man powerplay stack. I would reserve this option only for high powered offenses against the weakest of opposition though.
Defensemen
I often consider defensemen an extension of linestacking, but in reality that’s not always feasible. Though there are technically points awarded for blocked shots, even the top shot blockers aren’t very DFS relevant on shot blocking alone, unless they are positioned against a high shot volume team and come at a reasonable price tag. It is worth considering a high floor from reliable shooters and/or blockers when looking for value if you’re stacking two expensive lines, especially in cash games. While it’s not uncommon to see rosters where people have two depth defenders squeezed into their lineup due to salary constraints, know that you’ll typically need at least another goal from your forwards to compensate for the backend unless they happen to get a lucky bounce.
There are only around forty defensemen capable of regularly generating at a half point per game every season. With so few of these players available any given night, their salaries are typically higher than a forward with a similar point pace. The most prolific point producers are often unattainable for this reason. If an inexpensive defenseman finds his way onto the first powerplay unit, you can guarantee he will see high ownership. It’s almost always recommended to upgrade your defensemen if your salary allows.
Goaltenders
More important than any other statistic is whether or not your goalie is starting, so make sure to confirm that before puck drop. Daily Faceoff is the defacto place to verify the starting goaltender for each team. It’s not infallible, but it’s the best resource available without refreshing Twitter constantly for updates.
While it’s rare this will haunt you, it’s important to note that the win is only attributed to the goalie that’s on the ice when the deciding goal is scored, and that’s not necessarily who’s in the net at the end of the game. This is especially pertinent if you’re considering playing preseason games, where there’s often split duty between two prospects.
Even the worst goaltender is going to take up a sizeable chunk of your salary cap. However, unless they’re pulled from the game, even a losing goalie at least generally has some positive impact on your overall score. On the flipside, a winning goaltender can easily be your MVP every night. That’s a lot of pressure on picking the right player in this position, and therefore it’s often the hardest.
Without consideration for quality of opponent, even the best goaltender on the first seeded team has generally won less than 70% of their games that season. Picking a winning team is already a gamble, let alone the challenge of picking a winner that also faces a lot of shots without giving up goals. Because of this, I don’t really have a strong inclination to any particular strategy here. Some nights I’ll single out a small handful of goalies I think will perform well and either correlate them with my stacks or disperse them based on their salaries. If I’m only targeting a few lines that night, maybe I’ll run the same stacks with several goaltenders and hope to see them all dispersed in the top fifty. Other times I’ll ride the same goaltender for every lineup in a boom or bust scenario. In any case, I would seriously caution against being contrarian here without knowing there’s high upside (the goaltender is cheapest on the slate and at least has a chance of winning, say).
Recent/Historical Performance
I’m not going to lie, I use DailyFantasyNerd to compare shooting and scoring trends amongst players, and I’m always dialled in to the hot hands as much as anyone. However, I feel like people might put too much weight on recent performance and too little on historical data and sustainability.
There’s no question that sometimes players just go on hot or cold streaks, and betting on a player who’s in a slump to miraculously break it that night is equal parts realistic and gambler’s fallacy, as much as banking on the hot hand continuing his run would be. If you’re willing to do further digging, it’s worth taking into account whether a player is seeing a change in deployment or ice time. Consider whether they’re shooting more or less and what percentage of those shots are converting. Also note the quality of competition in the previous games. If you’re not doing any additional research whatsoever, just know these stats are usually shown as an average over the last five games and can be heavily skewed by one good or bad game, or even an injury.
If I only have time for minimal research any given night, without fail I am checking ShrpSports and CBC Sports for the team matchup history. Providing other factors align, I will often trust historical data and narrative games over a lot of other metrics. Now, I’m often criticised for putting weight on either of these things whatsoever, but I’ll still argue that it’s foolish to ignore it.
Obviously rosters change from season to season, and sometimes very dramatically. You should definitely take offseason changes into account. However, there are some teams or specific players that consistently (and often unexpectedly) have another team’s number, and rivalries are sure to bring out the best of both teams despite what fancy stats and standings indicate. Because of this, I tend to look at the outcome of the previous two season’s play and include any games played this season, with a greater weight put on teams that matchup more frequently. Especially if there is a team that shouldn’t be victorious that’s been on a relatively consistent win streak versus their opponent, I’m making a note of the upside from their upset potential, both to avoid picking the opposing goaltender and to consider linestacks that might otherwise be overlooked. I generally ignore playoff performances though because the stakes are higher and roles tend to be different.
It also might seem silly to place any weight on things like personal milestones, birthdays or playing against your former team, but hockey players are human, and more often than not people step up to prove something to themselves or others, or help their teammates achieve personal goals.
Advanced Stats
I’ll consider advanced stats for our purposes as anything that isn’t already tracked for DFS points that might actually affect them. So, standard stats would be shots, goals, assists and blocks, and advanced stats would be metrics that affect that. Not all good hockey players are fantasy relevant, and therefore many advanced stats aren’t a good predictor of DFS production. I will say that advanced stats strongly suggested that Tampa Bay were not nearly as good as their record suggested headed into the playoffs. Either way, it’s worth understanding these terms as they’re becoming part of the narrative, and while player and puck tracking will soon be the norm, you can garner a slight edge over the competition with a bit of manual work if you’re so inclined. In any case, none of these stats should be considered in a vacuum, and hockey isn’t a science in that you’ll accurately predict an outcome via advanced stats alone, so don’t go crazy looking for a pattern that probably isn’t there.
You can find all these stats (and much more) listed below at Corsica Hockey and Natural Stat Trick.
Shooting Percentage
Shooting percentage is predictive of whether on a player’s ice performance is sustainable. It’s most useful as a comparison to league and individual averages weighed against current performance to determine whether it’s an outlier. Simply, whether a player is slumping or over-performing.
Scoring Chances
These are shots taken where goals are likely to be scored, weighed based on where on the ice they’re taken from. It’s fallible, but it’s one of the strongest predictors currently available. If a player has a high shooting percentage but is also taking high danger shots, it stands to reason why they’re converting into goals. It’s worth noting when a line is generating high danger scoring opportunities without producing, as they’ll likely fly under the radar in the meantime.
Expected Goals FoAgainst (xGF/xGA)
Expected goals is a measurement of unblocked shots that register on net in the offensive zone. xGF/xGA doesn’t have a strong correlation with actual goals scored, which seems easily explained because it doesn’t take into account individual talent or scoring probability. While there’s a chance any puck thrown toward the net could lead to a goal, without taking into account the shot quality or where it’s generated from, I don’t place much weight on this personally.
Expected Save Percentage (xSv%)
This stat takes into account shot quality (though not shooter quality) and quantity and ranks the goaltender against the league average performance. Again, this isn’t necessarily a fair indicator of how well the goaltender performed. It is worth considering for how well the team’s defense has played in front of him though, so it can be used in conjunction with other stats when picking a goalie for the win and save upside.
Corsi and Fenwick
Corsi is likely the most recognizable name in advanced stats. This was devised to account for goaltender workload and adjusts for every time they have to be in position to make a save, so it takes into account shot attempts that are blocked or go wide of the net. It’s sister stat, Fenwick, is identical, aside excluding blocked shots. >50% Corsi/Fenwick indicates more shots on net than against. Neither take into account shot quality. Therefore, rather than using positive metrics to determine whether a team will score, I consider this a determining factor for diminishing the opposition from scoring, as they’ll possess the puck less often. This is especially worth considering for linematching.
Note that Corsi/Fenwick will be influenced by zone starts. A player that gets more faceoffs in the offensive zone is more likely to put pucks on net than they are to have shots against theirs, and vice versa. A player that has negative percentage and >50% offensive zone starts represents poor ice performance.
PDO/SPSV%
This statistic is nothing more than shooting percentage added to the save percentage. Since this will always total 100% league-wide, variance higher than 100 supposedly indicates luck, or that a team is not as good as they seem, and anything lower indicates they may be better than they appear. Though this stat supposedly measures luck it can also indicate a significant skill gap (Kucherov and Matthews are dominant in this category). A line generating many high danger scoring chances without conversion should have a low PDO that regresses to the mean.
There are more advanced stats available than these, as well as derivatives of each, though I think this is enough of an overview for daily fantasy purposes. If there’s something you’ve found to be useful though, feel free to drop it in the comments.
Lineup Construction
Now that you have narrowed down your chosen lines based on which teams you want to target and have a handful of goaltenders and defensemen/utility players selected, you’re ready to construct your lineups.
This will likely be a very individual process based on system comfortability and how many entries you’re submitting. The default will be simply to load the corresponding app or website and do everything entirely on your device or browser, if not supplementing with pen and paper. Perfectly acceptable. However, this would be both cumbersome and time consuming for MME, so there’s also a bulk upload option available with .csv spreadsheets. This might be the approach you take if you’re using an optimizer too.
Optimizers
Free optimizers are basically designed to squeeze out every dollar per average point production or projection, which is very much not what I prefer to build my lineups on. Though there are better options if you’re willing to shell out some money, I don’t play enough volume to warrant a subscription and prefer a more hands-on approach anyway. I would highly recommend checking out Linestar though. I am not affiliated with them in any way, but they seem under-recognized in the market and are easily the best optimizer available for hockey in my opinion, utilizing a lot of the criteria I’ve mentioned here, including historical data, stacking and advanced stats, etc. which many other optimizers omit. There’s also an option for a brief trial based on ad views.
Line Stacker
I personally use a custom line stacker that I hobbled together with spreadsheets and the downloadable .csv files from Draftkings and Fanduel. You can access it here along with the basic instructions for how it works. Someone always comes along and messes it up somehow, so I would recommend downloading it to your desktop and using Excel to play around with it.
Late Night Swaps
Rosters lock when the first game of the night is slated to begin. If there are games on your slate starting later than that, keep in mind that changes can and do happen. Check for last minute line changes or which goaltender takes the ice even if things seemed certain at the morning skate. The worst thing that can happen is watching your first place entry plummet because it was a late reveal that someone has the flu and isn’t on the bench.
Additional Resources
Breadispain’s FREE Fanduel and Draftkings Line Stacker v1.1: My own hobbled together line-stacking tool for up to 24 lines. I don't know of a similar tool available right now and I find it handier than an optimizer. There’s also a rudimentary salary comparison tool between Draftkings and Fanduel implemented if that interests you.
ShrpSports: See how well teams have performed against each other historically.
CBC Sports: maybe it’s because I’m Canadian, but I think the CBC does the best overview of the slate with easy access to the latest game data.
Daily Faceoff: Your best source for lineups, injury news and starting goaltender information.
Daily Fantasy Nerd: I use this daily for an overview of who’s hot/cold in the last five games for shots on goal, ice time and points, though it’s worth making a deeper dive to see whether those points came from a single outlier game.
Corsica Hockey and Natural Stat Trick: I use both of these sites for advanced stats, and occasionally the latter for line-matching data and post-game analysis.
Linestar: Linestar comes closest to developing a DFS tool that actually correlates with how I build my lineups. They offer everything from analysis on value plays, recent performance in varying metrics, historical data vs opponent, change in salary, salary disparity between platforms, and much more.
Results DB: see the best and optimal lineups from previous nights and who came out ahead.
Awesemo, Rotogrinders and DFS Army: Since these are the more popular sites, I tend to review their postings and livestreams when time permits on the big slates for anything I might’ve overlooked and to get a better idea of where other people might be targeting. I personally place more weight on boggslite and Homercles, for whatever that’s worth to you.
Summary
It’s my opinion that Vegas odds and expert predictions should be used as a guide for chalk more than what you should target. It won’t take research to determine that good players with ideal linemates against weak opponents are more likely to score. Don’t ignore narrative games and historical performances. Advanced stats can be both helpful and distracting. Ideally you’ll always stack two or more players who are correlated on the powerplay with one or both of your defensemen, on teams with high GF/G and/or PP%, against teams with low CF% and/or a goaltender with high GAA, ideally with a low PK%. Consider whether these players have been under or overperforming and have any chemistry together. Players who shoot more often increase their point floor and probability to score. It’s advantageous to be on home ice for linematching but it’s rarely a dealbreaker. Round this out with a goaltender with a high expected SA/G and low GAA that fits within your salary constraints. Alternatively, build from the goaltender out or just hamfist whomever works.
And that’s always easier said than done.
Best of luck.

It’s that time of the year again. Maybe you took a few months off from thinking about hockey and might have missed a few things this offseason. Maybe you’re a fellow miserable Steelers fan trying to switch gears and think of something else. Maybe you just want a 10 min refresher. In any case, I thought I’d make a little cliff notes recap of everything involving the Pens and the NHL from this offseason and sprinkled a few takes in at the end. But let’s start with the one thing that nobody missed...
Phil Kessel to Arizona for Alex Galchenyuk and Pierre-Olivier Joseph - The deal also sent prospect Dane Birks and a 4th to the Coyotes. We will probably never know the full extent of the reported tension Kessel had with Sullivan or Malkin and how much of that was overblown, but it was pretty clear that things got to a point where there was no way around moving him. And considering those circumstances, Rutherford did about as well as he could.
Galchenyuk is coming off a 19/22/41 season in 72 games, but has several 50+ seasons under his belt. Way too early reports out of camp suggest he’s taking some drills with Malkin and he’s also a strong candidate to slide into Kessel’s place on the top power play unit. Joseph is a 2017 first round pick who possesses great skating, passing, and power play experience. The only consistent criticism of him through his whole juniors career is that for some inexplicable reason he can’t put on weight. It will be a situation worth monitoring as he begins his pro career in WBS.
Olli Maatta to Blackhawks for Dominik Kahun - After being healthy scratched for the last 3 games of the Islanders series, the writing was on the wall that Maatta could be the odd man out. In return, the Pens get a versatile (albeit undersized) 24 year old winger in Kahun who is coming off a 13/24/37 stat line in his first NHL season. Think “Dominik Simon with better hands” and that should give you a benchmark of how Kahun plays. He figures to start the year in a bottom 6 role but I have a sneaking suspicion that it might not be long before he gets a look with Crosby and Guentzel. His game seems to fit the mold of what Sullivan likes in that role.
Penguins Sign Brandon Tanev - Ok, lets get the obvious out of the way. The 6 year 3.5M AAV contract is not good. You never want to tether yourself to a bottom 6er for that long, especially when you’re strapped on the cap. But with all that being said, I actually really like the fit here. Tanev is coming off a career high 14/15/29 season where he was 3rd in the league in hits (278) and 3rd among forwards in blocked shots (81). Most importantly, he wins puck battles, which is something the Penguins sorely lacked while being eviscerated by the Islanders last spring.
RFA Roundup - The Penguins took care of business with their 4 main RFAs: Marcus Pettersson (1 x 875k), Teddy Blueger (2 x 750k), Zach Aston-Reese (2 x 1M) and Jusso Riikola (1 x 800k). The Penguins would have liked to get a longer term deal done with Pettersson but it was simply not feasible given their cap situation. Blueger and ZAR return looking to claim every night spots in the lineup, which Riikola showed enough promise in an up and down first North American season to warrant another look. AHL tweeners Adam Johnson and Joseph Blandisi also return on RFA deals.
Odds and Ends - 7th defenseman Chad Ruhwedel returns for another year, as do AHL defensemen Zach Trotman and Kevin Czuzman (2 years each). Familiar face David Warsofsky also returns for his 3rd stint with the Pens organization on a 2 year deal. On the forward side, AHLers Thomas Di Pauli and Ben Sexton return on 1 year deals while Andrew Agozzino comes over from the Avs organization as well. Departing the organization are Garrett Wilson (TOR), Ethan Prow (FLA), Chris Wideman (ANA), Chris Summers, and Jimmy Hayes.
Cullen Retires - Matt Cullen also returns to the Penguins, but this time he won’t be on the ice. Shortly after announcing his retirement, Cullen immediately rejoined the Penguins in a front office player development role. Given his popularity within the organization as a mentor for younger players, it’s a pretty safe bet to think he’ll excel in this new role.
Depth Goaltending - The Penguins top tandem of Murray and DeSmith remains unchanged. Tristan Jarry is back as well, but after a “just ok” 2.66 GAA and .915% season in WBS, he has some competition now. The Penguins added 22 year old Finnish goalie Emil Larmi, who backstopped his team to a championship in Finland’s top league with a stellar 18 game playoff run that saw him go 12-6 with a 1.72 GAA and .932 save percentage. Alex D’Orio also begins his first pro season, and although he struggled last year in the QMJHL, he’s coming off a great prospect camp and figures to be in the mix for playing time as well. WBS also added 9 year vet Dustin Tokarski on an AHL contract, who most recently served as backup for the Calder Cup winning Charlotte Checkers.
All of this really seems like writing on the wall that Jarry’s time with the organization could be numbered. He doesn’t have much standalone trade value, but could be an intriguing piece of a larger deal should one materialize.
Mike Vellucci - The least talked about but potentially incredibly significant organizational shakeup happened in WBS. After Clark Donatelli resigned as coach, the Penguins swooped in and hired Vellucci, who is coming off a season in which he just guided the Checkers to a Calder Cup. Then, when Billy Guerin left to become the Wild’s GM, Vellucci also assumed his responsibilities as the GM of the WBS Penguins. While this “double duty” may at first seem odd, it’s nothing new for Vellucci who served as assistant GM for the Hurricanes for 5 years and the last 2 of those as the Checkers head coach.
Guerin and Donatelli left WBS in a state of disarray, and it’s hard to think of anyone better suited to turn things around than the man who played an important role in both building the Hurricanes back into playoff contenders and building the Checkers into AHL champions. The only major question here is why Vellucci, whose name would surely have been in the mix soon for both NHL coaching and front office jobs, would want to make a lateral move like he did. Maybe he’s just loyal to his old boss Rutherford. Maybe he’s preparing to be his eventual successor? Maybe he feels Sullivan’s seat is getting hot? All fair questions but whatever his reason may be this is a huge get for the organization.
Sullivan Extended - While the Vellucci hire may have raised some suspicions about the Penguins confidence in Sullivan, Rutherford did his best to quiet those when he gave the 2 time champion coach a 3 year extension. No problems with this. Coaches salaries don’t count against the cap, so there was no reason to string things along.
Draft Recap - The Penguins actually made a first round selection this year, taking 6’2’’ 207 lbs power forward Samuel Poulin. Poulin projects as a “safe floor” pick with nice size and playmaking ability, although he does need to improve his skating. If safe and solid doesn’t get you excited, then maybe 3rd round pick Nathan Legare will. Possessing one of the best pure shots of the draft class and nice size and speed to match, Legare could develop into quite the player if he can improve on his ability to create for himself rather than just rely on the setup. But seriously, this guy shoots bombs and I suspect he will be a strong candidate to become the “hype bunny” of the preseason. The Pens also added big 6’3’’ defensive-minded forward Judd Caulfield out of USA development team in the 5th, and a pair of Finns in the 7th with selections of overage but speedy forward Valtteri Puustinen and defenseman Santeri Airola.
Prospect Pipeline - All of the above selections will return to their respective junior teams, but WBS will also be seeing an intriguing influx of first year pros. PO Joseph may have been the prized acquisition of the offseason, but it was his playing partner John Marino that was getting the buzz out of prospect camp. The Penguins acquired Marino from the Oilers for a 6th, and he projects to be a “jack of all trades” defenseman who doesn’t really have any overwhelming strengths or weaknesses to his game. He should make a splash in WBS. The Penguins also signed 27 year old Finn Oula Palve, who may not be a prospect anymore but will be treated as such as he enters his first North American season. Palve was a very productive player his past few seasons, although some of that may have been due to being line mates with Kappo Kakko.
The Pens also have an intriguing crop of home grown first year pros ready to make their WBS debuts. Most notable of those is 2017 preseason darling Jordy Bellerive, who is now a full year removed from his scary burn injuries and looking to bring his intriguing blend of speed and playmaking to the pro level. Joining him will be Justin Almeida, who is AHL eligible despite being drafted only last year as an overager. Almeida was an absolute scoring machine in the WHL, posting 111 points in 64 games last season. Kasper Bjorkqvist is perhaps the least flashy but also the most pro ready of the new crop, and while he may not have a history of scoring a lot, he’s a responsible 2 way forward with the kind of freakish conditioning routines that rival those of Kris Letang. Speedy Slovenian forward Jan Drozg will also be likely turning pro, as will defenseman Niclas Almari, who would have likely been the consensus choice for 2nd best D prospect behind Addison before the additions of Joseph and Marino. It will be interesting to see how those 3 are able to carve out playing time in WBS among the veterans.
AROUND THE METRO
Rangers- The clear “on paper” winners of the offseason, the Rangers kicked the rebuild into overdrive and went for broke. They signed Artemi Panarin to a massive 7 year 11.6M AAV contract, traded for Jacob Trouba, traded for prized Hurricanes defenseman prospect Adam Fox, and drafted young Finnish superstar Kappo Kakko with the 2nd overall pick. While it’s unclear just how all these pieces will fit together, this influx of talent at least gives them a seat at the table. How far they can go likely depends on the development of young goalie Alexander Georgiev and whether or not Henrik has any juice left in the tank.
Devils - If the Rangers were the offseason winners, Ray Shero’s Devils come a close 2nd. They drafted Jack Hughes #1 overall, made a blockbuster trade with the Preds for PK Subban, and won the trade sweepstakes for heavily hyped Russian defenseman Nikita Gusev. Like the Rangers, these additions put them in the conversation, but they have some serious question marks in net. Expect them to roll with a tandem of the promising but inconsistent young Mackenzie Blackwood and the oft-injured Cory Schneider.
Blue Jackets - For as good as things went for the Rangers and Devils, that’s as bad as things are in Columbus. After pushing all their chips to the middle last year, CBJ has parted ways with Panarin, Sergei Bobrovsky, Matt Duchene, and Ryan Dzingel and didn’t really bring in much aside from Gustav Nyqvist to replace that production. It’s back to the drawing board for these guys.
Hurricanes - They dodged a major bullet when they were able to match Montreal’s offer sheet for Aho, but continued to stay busy throughout the offseason. The Canes swapped out Calvin de Haan, Michael Ferland, and the retiring Justin Williams for Jake Gardiner (on a steal of a contract), Erik Haula, and Ryan Dzingel. They are also actively shopping Justin Faulk. It’s hard to say yet whether they got better or worse with this shuffle of players, but they’ll look to avoid statistical regression after their unexpected run to the ECF.
Capitals - Not too much change for Todd Reirden’s second year behind the bench. They’ll look to replace the departures of Brett Connolly, Andre Burakovsky, and Brooks Orpik largely from within, but the core remains intact, and we should expect to see more or less the same looking team as we have been accustomed to the past few years.
Islanders - Another team that (after losing the Panarin sweepstakes) didn’t have a lot of movement in the offseason, save for a potentially very significant development between the pipes. Robin Lehner is out after his breakthrough season last year, and replacing him will be journeyman vet Semyon Varlamov, who should figure to split about a 50-50 workload with Greiss. It’s puzzling that the team didn’t make a stronger effort to keep Lehner after he played so well for them last year, but they’ve proven before that they are willing to part with top talent and rely on their system to carry them.
Flyers - The biggest change here comes behind the bench, as Alain Vigneault returns to the metro division along with a pair of former Penguins Michel Therrien and Mike Yeo as assistants. They also made one splash signing in Kevin Hayes, who received a whopping 7 year 7.14M AAV deal. They also added Matt Niskanen, swapping Radko Gudas to the Caps. I feel like we already know what these guys are gonna be. They’ll go on some crazy mid season win streak, come crashing back to earth by losing 10 out of 12, and ultimately settle somewhere around the playoff bubble.
Make no mistake about it. This division is the Thunderdome now. With everyone but the Jackets projected to be in the playoff mix, there will be some talented teams that will miss the playoffs. Gone are the days where a second round Pens-Caps series is a foregone conclusion, and a slow start simply cannot be afforded in this suddenly wide open division.
Rest Of The East - In the Atlantic Division, the big 3 seem poised to continue their dominance. The Conference Champion Bruins remain mostly unchanged because, hey, if it’s not broke than don’t fix it. Coming off their historic regular season and inexplicable playoff exit, the Lightning mostly stood pat as well, making a minor alteration in the defense by bringing in Kevin Shattenkirk to replace Anton Stralman. They also still have some business to take care of with star RFA Brayden Point, although that is expected to be done at some point. The Maple Leafs opened their pocket books to give Marner his massive extension, and they now have a staggering 40.5M of cap space allocated to their top 4 players. They also had some considerable overturn with the rest of the roster, bringing in defenseman Tyson Barrie and forward Alex Kerfoot in a trade that sent Nazem Kadri to Colorado, and also adding Cody Ceci from the Sens.
The biggest movers in this division were the Panthers, who may have missed out on Panarin but made the biggest coaching hire in landing 3 time cup winner Joel Quenneville. Joining him will be Bobrovsky, Stralman, and Connolly. Does this get them closer to the top 3 in the division? Yes. Does it get them all the way there? Probably not. After whiffing on the offer sheet with Aho, the Canadiens came up empty handed with pretty much everyone else too. The Red Wings biggest change comes in the front office, as they finally parted ways with Ken Holland and brought in franchise legend Steve Yzerman who is largely responsible for assembling the juggernaut in Tampa. Jason Botterill’s Sabres, on the other hand, find themselves searching for answers after having to sacrifice Phil Housley at coach and replace him with Ralph Krueger. They also stayed active, adding Colin Miller, Jimmy Vesey, Henri Jokiharju, and Marcus Johansson. These all, on paper at least, seem like pretty shrewd moves but another underperforming season could see Botterill’s seat getting red hot. And the Senators...well, let’s just say that’s still a train wreck.
The Wild Wild West - Defending champion Blues return largely intact after locking up their young stud goalie Binnington, and like Boston, why wouldn’t they? The biggest movers in the entire conference have to be the Stars, who added veteran star Joe Pavelski as well as high upside reclamation project Corey Perry to an already star studded top 6. The PK Subban era is over for the Predators, but they still made a splash in signing Matt Duchene, who joins a core of centers that already included Ryan Johansen, Kyle Turris, and Nick Bonino. The Avalanche were also very active, adding Burakovsky, Kadri, and Joonas Donskoi while losing Barrie as they look to take the next step towards becoming major players in the west. Most of the Jets offseason has revolved around the potentially concerning RFA stalemate with superstar Patrik Laine, but it’s worth noting that they lost Trouba as well. The Blackhawks look to infuse more youth into their core of forwards, but they got some needed insurance on the back end in Robin Lehner, who should join a tandem with the oft-injured Corey Crawford. And the Wild pretty much spun their wheels after the failed Kessel-Zucker trade, and ended up going with vet forward Mats Zuccarello.
In the Pacific, the top points finishing Flames remain mostly intact, although it seems now they have committed to young David Rittich between the pipes following the departure of Mike Smith. The Golden Knights nightmare cap situation forced them to offload Miller, Haula, and Gusev, but the core of the team remains the same and primed for another deep playoff run. The Sharks moved on from one face of the franchise in Pavelski, but locked up another when they gave Erik Karlsson a huge 8 year extension. The Coyotes showed that they believe they are ready to contend with the big Kessel trade, but did little else to improve their forward depth. The Canucks accelerated their rebuild with major veteran signings of Michael Ferland, JT Miller, and Tyler Myers, and when you combine these with their promising young core and the league’s thinnest division, they could be a sleeper playoff team this year. The Kings and Ducks continued their rebuilds with coaching changes, bringing on Todd McLellan and Dallas Eakins respectively. And the Oilers latest attempt to fix their issues involves James Neal and 37 year old Mike Smith, so expect them to once again go exactly as far as McDavid can carry them.
SEASON STORYLINES
Salary cap trade - The dirt cheap Pettersson contract allows the Penguins to go into the season cap compliant without having to make any major trades, but that doesn’t mean one still isn’t coming at some point. Ideally, you’d love to get Jack Johnson’s 3.25M off the books but that would involve another team actually agreeing to that, so the Pens may have to look elsewhere to open up some space. Bryan Rust is another popular name in these discussions, as the additions of Kahun and Tanev make his role a bit more crowded.
Schedule Difficulty - Once again the schedule maker did the Pens no favors, hitting them with 17 back to backs (tied for the most). In addition, 14 of their last 16 games of the season will come against metro division opponents (including all 4 against Carolina in the month of March) so expect everything to still be on the line deep into the year.
Sullivan’s System - While I don’t yet think Sullivan’s seat is hot (nor should it be), the Isles series exposed some glaring flaws that need to be addressed. The 2019 playoffs as a whole were a case study on how bigger, more structured teams are becoming increasingly effective in countering free-flowing speed and skill teams, and now it’s on teams like the Pens to adjust. The challenge for Sullivan will be finding a way to add some additional structure without suffocating the playmaking abilities of his best players.

A list of players projected to best either last year’s totals or their career total, in no particular order. (Some deserved players, like Zach Parise and Max Domi, are not listed)
With random uninformed thoughts, they are:
Mark Scheifele ^Winnipeg Last year: 23g-37a=60p, 18 pims, 16 ppp, 3 gwg, 125 shots, 594 fw (60 games) This year: 22g-27a=49p, 24 pims, 15 ppp, 5 gwg, 98 shots, 424 fw (39 games)
Points needed to best last year: 12+. Points needed for career best: +34. Goals needed for career best: +11. Assists needed for career best: +24. Games remaining: +38.
Looking at his 4th straight 60+ point season, Scheifele has been shooting at 18%+ over the past 3 seasons while averaging 20 1/2+ minutes a game over that time. On pace for a career high in shots, this should also bring a new career high in goals. Over a point per game at the halfway mark, (and basically point per game since pee-wee), he has a chance for his highest point total in 6 seasons. He’s a crucial 2 way playmaker in the Jets lineup and he’s only 25.
This year: 38g-46a=84p, 38 pims, 23 ppp, 6 gwg, 199 shots, 803 fw (82 games)
-19.1% shooting -career high in shots -career high in goals -career high points
Elias Lindholm ^Calgary Last year: 16g-28a=44p, -8 rating, 9 ppp, 1 shp, 4 gwg, 153 shots, 432 fw (81 games) This year: 18g-26a=44p, +23 rating, 15 ppp, 3 shp, 5 gwg, 99 shots, 270 fw (40 games)
Points needed for career best: 2. Assists needed for career best: 8. Games remaining: 40.
Close to setting career highs across the board, Calgary has done wonderful things for Elias Lindholm. He already met his production from last year in half as many games while improving +31 and averaging almost 3 more minutes per night. He’s shooting 8.2% over his career average, though (18.2 up from 10.0). With regression, 100 more shots is 10 more goals and he only needs 12 to get to 30. So shoot more, Elias Lindholm, 30 goal scorer. He is 24.
-27 goals, not 30, still career best -83 more shots, 9 more goals, career best
Phillip Danault ^Montreal Last year: 8g-17a=25p, 94 shots, 380 fw (52 games) This year: 7g-20a=27p, 71 shots, 408 fw (40 games)
Goals needed for career best: 7. Assists needed for career best: 8. Points needed for career best: 14. Games remaining: 40.
Only an 8.6% career shooter, even setting a new career high in shots shouldn’t increase his goal total by much. 5 of his goals this season came in just 2 games. 34 games with no goal, 20 games with no points. But, he has gotten consistent for 2019, as he’s only gone more than 2 games in row w/o a point once (at still only 3 games.) This is compared to last year, when he went 7 games in a row with zero points, and twice went 5 games. He’s seen an extra minute of ice time per game this year and may post career numbers, but 45-50 points may also be his ceiling until he shoots more. More of a 2 way playmaker, he’s 25.
-2 shots away from career high -2 goals away from career high -9.1% shooting -career best points -882 face off wins, 55.5% -77.4% of his points are assists -5 games with no points, 4 games with no points, and 3 games with no points twice
Bo Horvat ^Vancouver Last year: 22g-22a=44p, 10 pims, 13 ppp, 1 shp, 3 gwg, 158 shots, 712 fw (64 games) This year: 17g-18a=35p, 23 pims, 10 ppp, 3 shp, 2 gwg, 117 shots, 549 fw (42 games)
Goals needed for career best: 6. Assists needed for career best: 15. Points needed for career best: 18. Games remaining: 38.
Bo will be looking for 30 goals (as it’s certainly possible), though he may have to settle with around 27 as a new career best and wait one more year for 30. He’s averaging the most ice time of his career, and using the time to shoot more, being on pace for 50 more shots than his previous high. The 51%+ career face off winner sees the majority of Vancouver’s draws, especially when Vancouver is on the defensive, and at 23, his best seasons and statistical milestones are yet to come.
-27 goals, career best -69 more shots -career best points
Timo Meier ^{San Jose} Last year: 21g-15a=36p, 4 ppp, 210 shots, 71 fw (81 games) This year: 18g-17a=35p, 3 ppp, 125 shots, 7 fw (38 games)
Goals needed for career best: 4. Points needed for career best: 2. Games remaining: 40.
2+ more minutes per game, Timo is excelling in his 2nd full year as a Shark. He might double his career best point total this year, and if he stays on the powerplay he might see 30 goals. But which Timo: 13 points in 9 games, or 8 in 12? 11 points in 7 games, or 2 in 7? ¿Más o menos? ..He’s only 23, and is on pace for near 100 hits.
-66 points, not 72 -30 goals, career best -99 hits
Matthew Tkachuk ^Calgary Last year: 24g-25a=49p, 17 ppp, 188 shots (68 games) This year: 18g-28a=46p, 17 ppp, 95 shots (40 games)
Goals needed for career best: 7. Assists needed for career best: 8. Points needed for career best: 4. Games remaining: 36.
Rounding out his game while currently shooting 18.9%, Tkachuk is on pace for the first of what could be many 70+ point seasons. His supporting cast in Calgary is one of the most dangerous young cores in the league, and he’s still 21. A more physical Tkachuk means more disruptions and possessions, if he chooses to play that way. But the scoring will definitely be there.
-77 points, career high -104 hits
Cam Atkinson ^Columbus Last year: 24g-22a=46p, 14 pims, 10 ppp, 5 gwg, 231 shots (65 games) This year: 24g-18a=42p, 14 pims, 8 ppp, 5 gwg, 151 shots (38 games)
Goals needed for career best: 12. Assists needed for career best: 10. Points needed for career best: 21. Games remaining: 40.
He’s shooting more (is that possible? It might be soon) and has a current 15.9% clip to show for it, 4.1 up from his career average. 290 shots and 40 goals is the mark, and because 16 goals and 11 assists in 40 games should be cake, Atkinson should have new career highs. He is 29.
-295 shots, 41 goals -career high assists and points
Josh Morrissey ^Winnipeg Last year: 7g-19a=26p, 1 ppp, 102 shots (81 games) This year: 4g-18a=22p, 7 ppp, 2 gwg, 61 shots (37 games)
Goals needed for career best: 4. Assists needed for career best: 2. Points needed for career best: 5. Games remaining: 42.
More time on the powerplay, and 2 more minutes total per game, he is also looking at the most takeaways of his career. Right on average with a 6.6% shooting, 6 goals on the next 70 shots would lead Morrissey to new career highs and a 40 point season. He’s 23, and the Jets are loaded to be a west coast giant for at least the next three years. Just one question though: Will Morrissey still be in Winnipeg?
Alex Tuch ^{Las Vegas} Last year: 15g-22a=37p, 4 gwg, 171 shots (78 games) This year: 13g-17a=30p, 6 gwg, 82 shots (34 games)
Goals needed for career best: 3. Assists needed for career best: 6. Points needed for career best: 8. Games remaining: 40.
Shooting at 15.9%, he should score 25 goals while getting 25 assists for a 50+ point season. Not bad for a 22 year old, who should continue to build on that the next few years. Unheralded on the stat sheet is positioning and compete, and this kid excels in both.
Ryan McDonagh ^{Tampa Bay} Last year: 4g-25a=29p, +8 rating, 99 shots (63 games) This year: 3g-20a=23p, +20 rating, 67 shots (40 games)
Goals needed for career best: 12. Assists needed for career best: 17. Points needed for career best: 21. Games remaining: 40.
The 29 year old might not set career bests, but he’ll be close and should definitely make up for last season after becoming more accustomed in Tampa Bay’s lineup. Just 1 goal and 6 assists will bring McDonagh to crushing last year’s totals, also making this the sixth season he’s played in 70 or more games and scored over 30 points. I’d expect nothing less from a career +162 blueliner.
Jakub Vrana ^Washington Last year: 13g-14a=27p, 133 shots (73 games) This year: 12g-9a=21p, 79 shots (38 games)
Goals needed for career best: 2. Assists needed for career best: 6. Points needed for career best: 7. Games remaining: 40.
And I thought this dude was in his 30’s. Jakub Vrana stabilizing depth in the Capitals lineup seems like it’s been around way longer than 2 cumulative years, but he’s only 22. The 1st round pick (13th) in 2014, his youthful numbers were never abundant but they were always consistent at near point per game over a 35 game average. His 15.2% shooting should lower, but getting 20 goals and 20 assists out of your 2 way depth forward with potential for more as a top 6 plug is a good deal. He’s an rfa after this season.
Kyle Palmieri ^{New Jersey} Last year: 24g-20a=44p, 181 shots (62 games) This year: 19g-15a=34p, 120 shots (38 games)
Goals needed for career best: 12. Assists needed for career best: 13. Points needed for career best: 24. Games remaining: 40.
Injury prevented Palmieri from notching 30 goals last season, but a career 13.8% shooter on the Devils should have no problem scoring 11 with a roster that needs to compensate for it’s maybe shaky maybe steady goalie situation and just score over the next 40 games for a wildcard spot. His ice time has increased by 1 minute, but he needs to work on his face-offs, losing 44 while only winning 16. His first 60 point season as a 27 year old, how much higher could he go? Worth considering, he is seeing top line even strength/PP minutes on a team with Hall and Hischier.
Chris Kreider ^{NY Rangers} Last year: 16g-21a=37p, 12 ppp, 137 shots (58 games) This year: 20g-11a=31p, 10 ppp, 107 shots (38 games)
Goals needed for career best: 9. Assists needed for career best: 15. Points needed for career best: 23. Games remaining: 40.
Shooting 18.7% while on pace for near 250 shots is excellent, and one of the many factors in why the Rangers remain in contention. The powerplay is clicking (top 5 in December-26.7%), and even if his shooting regresses his career average is still 13.8%, and he does shoot a lot. Another first time 30 goal scorer is on the books.
-28 goals, not 30. -201 shots, 13.9% average
Brock Nelson ^{NY Islanders} Last year: 19g-16a=35p, -4 rating, 138 shots, 389 fw (82 games) This year: 13g-12a=25p, +13 rating, 79 shots, 276 fw (38 games)
Goals needed for career best: 14. Assists needed for career best: 14. Points needed for career best: 21. Games remaining: 41.
7 more goals and 5 more assists would best last season’s totals, however with the Islanders focus on a more defensive play, topping his career of 45 is still within reach, but tougher. Though up +17 from last year and a current 16.5% shooting should help. He’s seeing more faceoffs this year as well as seeing more than 3 minutes ice time per game. (Though he’s a career 45.6% faceoff winner). He’s 27.
Blake Coleman ^{New Jersey} Last year: 13g-12a=25p, 146 shots, 3 shp (79 games) This year: 11g-8a=19p, 107 shots, 3 shp (38 games)
Goals needed for career best: 3. Assists needed for career best: 6. Games remaining: 40.
The Devils’ ace forechecker plays a grinding game, working along the boards and generally getting in the way of opponents. Yet, however, his best asset might be that he converts that defensive play into scoring chances quite often. Take away his short handed points, and there’s even strength points from similar sudden chance strikes generated by his line. His average ice time is up over a minute from last year, he’s on pace for 200+ hits (again), and he’s shooting almost twice as much (at 10.6%) as last year. He’s 27 but may be a staple on the Devils depth chart and penalty kill for years to come.
Jimmy Vesey ^{NY Rangers} Last year: 17g-11a=28p, -18 rating, 136 shots (79 games) This year: 10g-10a=20p, +5 rating, 82 shots (38 games)
Goals needed for career best: 8. Assists needed for career best: 2. Points needed for career best: 9. Games remaining: 40. (Goals needed to get to 30: 20)
Up +23 from last year while seeing more than 2 minutes per game is a great correlation to have. Vesey’s 3rd season with the Rangers should be his best one statistically, as they keep finding ways to score. And shooting more at a 12.9% career clip is supposed to mean more goals. He’s 25, but with that should score 30 before he’s 30.
Andreas Athanasiou ^Detroit Last year: 16g-17a=33p, 3 ppp, 170 shots (71 games) This year: 13g-9a=22p, 3 ppp, 101 shots (35 games)
Goals needed for career best: 6. Assists needed for career best: 9. Points needed for career best: 12. Games remaining: 40.
He’s 24, and his 3rd full season should see him hit 25 goals. His ice time has increased every year as has his shot output. 12.6% career shooting, but he may be a future 50-60 point ceiling player used for all situations.
Pierre-Luc Dubois ^Columbus Last year: 20g-28a=48p, 49 pims, 4 gwg, 165 shots (82 games) This year: 16g-20a=32p, 40 pims, 3 gwg, 88 shots (39 games)
Points needed for career best: 13. Games remaining: 40.
5 more goals and 9 more assists is all Dubois needs to better last (rookie) season. 20 years old and in his 2nd season, he’s shooting at a phenomenal 18.2% while averaging 2 more minutes per game. How many seasons will this gonna be bruising power forward score 30 goals, is the question? Remember, he’s 20. He is credited with more giveaways than last year though in 43 less games, so squash that and get the 44.3% faceoff wins up and Blue Jackets are golden.
Jake Guentzel ^Pittsburgh Last year: 22g-26a=48p, -9 rating, 171 shots, 65 fw (82 games) This year: 16g-18a=34p, +8 rating, 102 shots, 8 fw (39 games)
Goals needed for career best: 7. Assists needed for career best: 9. Points needed for career best: 15. Games remaining: 40.
24 and in his 2nd full season, playoff clutch Jake Guentzel has translated extra season play into main season play, sitting 15 points away from new career highs with half a season (on a sometimes lethal Penguins squad) to get there. He’s +17 from last year, taking less penalties, and converting that into 2 minutes more ice time per game. 15.3% career shooting, (17.5% including playoffs, where he’s a ridiculous 26.7% on 86 shots), we have another ticket to the 30 goal club.
Esa Lindell ^Dallas Last year: 7g-20a=27p, 8 ppp, 137 shots (80 games) This year: 6g-11a=17p, 5 ppp, 2 shp, 71 shots (40 games)
Goals needed for career best: 2. Assists needed for career best: 10. Points needed for career best: 11. Games remaining: 40.
Fantasy hero (if you count hits and blocks) Esa Lindell has seen some increase in production this season due to the absence of Klingberg, but at 24 Lindell may blossom into a perennial 35 point scorer yet. Up 2 1/2 minutes to 24:44 per game, he’s shooting more and hitting more. Lindell, Klingberg, Heiskanen, and Johns are as good a top 4 as any on paper.
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins ^Edmonton Last year: 24g-24a=48p, +10 rating, 9 ppp, 151 shots (62 games) This year: 14g-22a=36p, -9 rating, 15 ppp, 107 shots (39 games)
Goals needed for career best: 11. Assists needed for career best: 16. Points needed for career best: 21. Games remaining: 40.
RNH’s 8th season as an Oiler may see him eclipse his former highest goal total, a feat that could be made possible by shooting current 13.1% over 200 projected shots. That brings him to 12 more goals over 40 games, though he might not hit 30 goals or 60 points. Or, he could hit 70 points! He’s up over 2 minutes per night from last year and succeeding way more on the powerplay, but he’s still down -19 from last year and has only finished with higher than 46.0% faceoff wins one time in his career.
Josh Anderson ^Columbus Last year: 19g-11a=30p, -1 rating, 188 shots (63 games) This year: 14g-4a=18p, +18 rating, 105 shots (39 games)
Goals needed for career best: 6. Assists needed for career best: 9. Points needed for career best: 13. Games remaining: 40.
The 24 year old’s 3rd season with the Blue Jackets should see him top 25 goals for the first time, though his assists may top off at 15 to give him 40 points. His ice time is actually down almost 2 minutes from last year, but he’s up +19, while also shooting more (at 13.3%), and hitting more (95 in 39 games compared to 109 in 63 games). He should also finish with a 2.5-1 takeaway-giveaway ratio.
Jeff Petry ^Montreal Last year: 12g-30a=42p, 178 shots (82 games) This year: 8g-21a=29p, 91 shots (40 games)
Goals needed for career best: 5. Assists needed for career best: 10. Points needed for career best: 14. Games remaining: 40.
Ah, the oldest player on this list at 31. This year may be thanks to the youth scoring of Drouin and Domi, but Petry has always been a steady force on the defense (as long as you ignore his +/-). Just last year was his previous highest scoring totals, and that was prior to both acquisitions; now with half a season to go, he should top his scoring numbers again. He also has a body count, on pace for the most hits of his career (182+). Next year add in Suzuki, a healthy Weber, a sophomore Kotkaniemi, and breakouts by Gallagher and Byron, and Petry should be sitting pretty again.
Tomas Hertl ^{San Jose} Last year: 22g-24a=46p, 175 shots (79 games) This year: 14g-19a=33p, 81 shots (36 games)
Goals needed for career best: 9. Assists needed for career best: 7. Points needed for career best: 14. Games remaining: 40.
This is a ninja stat line: 25 year old with 25 assists and 25 goals for 50 points in his 5th season full. Limericks aside, he should have a career season and continue to settle between 55 and 70 points if his ice time doesn’t go up. He plays a bumpy game and is good on faceoffs.
Brayden Point ^{Tampa Bay} Last year: 32g-34a=66p, 11 ppp, 217 shots (82 games) This year: 23g-29a=52p, 17 ppp, 106 shots (40 games)
Goals needed for career best: 10. Assists needed for career best: 6. Points needed for career best: 15. Games remaining: 40.
21.7% shooting. Reverting back to 16.4% career over the next 100+ projected shots still brings Mr. Point to one of the few 40 goal scorers here (unless Kucherov scores them all). Yes it’s 40 exact, and he would need a run, but it’s the Bolts. He’s only been held off the score sheet 12 times (in 40 games), among the least on this list, yet also has 14 multipoint games to counter. He’s been converting more on the powerplay. Point is a 3rd round gem for the Lightning, and is only 22.
Mitch Marner ^Toronto Last year: 22g-47a=69p, -1 rating, 2 gwg, 194 shots (82 games) This year: 13g-40a=53p, +15 rating, 3 gwg, 108 shots (39 games)
Goals needed for career best: 10. Assists needed for career best: 8. Points needed for career best: 17. Games remaining: 40.
Marner’s 3rd season as a 21 year old has him on pace for new career highs, because expecting less than 17 points over the next 40 games as a Maple Leaf is nutso facto. Up +16 from last year and converting 12.0% of his shots, 30 goals, 70 assists, and 100 points is attainable, (but goals might be 25). He’s also playing 3 more minutes per game at 19:30 (up from 16:30ish the prior 2 years). He had 316 points in 258 games in the OHL, he’s just getting started.
Jack Eichel ^Buffalo Last year: 25g-39a=64p, -25 rating, 246 shots, 347 fw (67 games) This year: 15g-34a=49p, +9 rating, 164 shots, 294 fw (40 games)
Goals needed for career best: 11. Assists needed for career best: 6. Points needed for career best: 16. Games remaining: 40.
Looking to play a full season for the first time since his rookie season 4 years ago (wtf he’s only 22? I’m gonna be an old man like ‘Nico Hischier, 24 year old’). Eichel is also on pace for his most faceoffs taken and is besting his previous highest winning percentage by 6.1% (41.5 to 47.6), while playing more physical overall. +34 from last year, and if he stays near current +9 Eichel has potential for his first season with a positive rating.
Sean Monahan ^Calgary Last year: 31g-33a=64p, 19 ppp, 202 shots (74 games) This year: 21g-27a=48p, 12 ppp, 122 shots (40 games)
Goals needed for career best: 11. Assists needed for career best: 10. Points needed for career best: 17. Games remaining: 40.
24 year old Monahan has never finished at a point per game, but that might change this season. The 15.1% career shooter now has 6 straight 20 goal seasons to start his career, with his 3rd possible 30 goal season on the horizon. Doubling his points for the next half of the season, totals a 40 goal 50 assist projection, clearing his previous best of last season’s 64 points. He’s 50% on faceoffs and sneaky defensively, and he helps Calgary open the window to do some damage.
Gabriel Landeskog ^Colorado Last year: 25g-37a=62p, 37 pims, 17 ppp, 1 gwg, 183 shots, 215 fw (78 games) This year: 24g-21a=45p, 33 pims, 16 ppp, 7 gwg, 119 shots, 197 fw (40 games)
Goals needed for career best: 3. Assists needed for career best: 19. Points needed for career best: 21. Games remaining: 40.
20.2% shooting shouldn’t be sustainable when your career average is 11.5%, but he was over 13% last year so it shouldn’t dip by much. With over 2 minutes increased ice time from his career average, there is no denying that this year was the year that playing with Mackinnon and Rantanen boosted Landeskog. He’s also about to break last year’s faceoffs total and is winning them this year at 54%. He’s converting on the powerplay and 7 game winners are the most in his career, while being a physical presence on the Avs top line. Doubling his totals for the next half of the season gives us either another 40 goal scorer and 35 assist getter, or vice versa. He’s 26.
Alex DeBrincat ^Chicago Last year: 28g-24a=52p, 6 pims, 12 ppp, 181 shots (82 games) This year: 18g-15a=33p, 13 pims, 9 ppp, 113 shots (41 games)
Goals needed for career best: 11. Assist needed for career best: 10. Points needed for career best: 20. Games remaining: 40.
21 and in his sophomore season, DeBrincat has maintained a 15.6% shooting average, and has seen his ice time increase to over 2 minutes per night. He finds himself in the right spots with his movement and positioning sense. He’ll be one to watch next year, but this year he could still be in the 30 goals and/or 60 points club.
Mark Stone ^Ottawa Last year: 20g-42a=62p, 10 pims, 11 ppp, 3 gwg, 132 shots (58 games) This year: 18g-25a=43p, 18 pims, 12 ppp, 3 gwg, 97 shots (40 games)
Goals needed for career best: 9. Assists needed for career best: 18. Points needed for career best: 22. Games remaining: 40.
26 year old Stone can be argued to be one of the best 2 way players in hockey. He’s shooting 18.6% this season from a career average of 15.9%, on pace for the most shots in his career (just needs 60 more shots in the next 40 games, after 90 in the previous 40). He’s +53 career after 5 full seasons on the Senators. 4/5 of those seasons with stellar takeaway vs giveaway numbers and minimal penalty minutes (38 is the most he’s ever gotten).
Ones to watch:
Ondrej Kase ^Anaheim Needs: 10 goals and 11 assists to beat his career bests. Last year: 20g-18a=38p, 3 ppp, 146 shots (66 games) This year: 11g-8a=19p, 4 ppp, 75 shots (23 games)
If he can stay in the lineup and maintain his so far 12.1% ‘career’ shooting (142 games, 298 shots), the 23 year old can grow into a legit 25/30 goal scoring threat. If he can manage 19 in his next 30 games, 30 goals can happen this season.
Jonathan Toews ^Chicago Needs: 5 goals, 14 assists to best last year. Games remaining: 40.
Last year: 20g-32a=52p, 12 ppp, 211 shots (74 games) This year: 16g-19a=35p, 8 ppp, 102 shots (41 games)
Toews is looking for his best year in the past 4 seasons, needing just 24 points for his best scores since 2014/15 (28/30-58). 14.1% career shooter and shiny 56.9% career faceoff winner with hyper stick checking while taking minimal penalties, he’s 30 and should have a couple of years of good hockey left in the tank. Side note, teammate Patrick Kane has also stepped it up from last year, and Duncan Teeth seems all the way recovered from knee surgery.
Sebastian Aho ^Carolina Last year: 29g-36a=65p, 16 ppp, 4 gwg, 200 shots, 78 fw (78 games) This year: 15g-24a=39p, 10 ppp, 3 shp, 3 gwg, 116 shots, 265 fw (38 games)
Games remaining: 40.
15 goals and 13 assists in 40 games are needed for 21 year old Aho to post career bests, and being as he’s at a point per game now, he should clear the accomplishment even if he has a slump or two. He’s shifted to taking some center responsibility and has rewarded the Hurricanes with winning 52% of faceoffs while playing almost 2 minutes above his career average. 12.8% shooting over 3 seasons. The Hurricanes are a team on the rise, but can Aho and his lack of penalties always be an integral 65+ point part?

• Team on the rise, because they’ll have a better goalie within 2 years, grown prospects, and 2019/20 draft picks. Further, Seattle will make some teams worse in the east, but not Carolina (..if they’re smart).

Leon Draisaitl ^Edmonton Last year: 25g-45a=70p, 11 ppp, 1 gwg, 194 shots (78 games) This year: 21g-28a=49p, 16 ppp, 4 gwg, 103 shots (39 games)
Goals needed for career best: 9. Assists needed for career best: 21. Points needed for career best: 29. Games remaining: 40.
Almost 3 1/2 minutes up per night from his career average, and shooting 20.4%, up from 14.7% career. He doesn’t take many penalties, but he’s credited with a lot of giveaways. Doubling his totals over the next half of the season gives us 40 goals, 50 assists. Can Draisaitl get 90 points? Then can he do it again?
Ryan O’Reilly ^{St Louis} Last year: 24g-37a-61p, -23, 23 ppp, 230 shots at 10.4% (81 games) This year: 15g-20a=35p, +6, 9 ppp, 97 shots at 15.5% (37 games)
Goals needed for career best: 14. Assist needed for career best: 20. Games remaining: 40.
Winning 58.4% of his faceoffs over the past 4 years (on 6,569 faceoffs, 261 games), this 27 year old also often has a 2.5/1 takeaway to giveaway ratio. This season, he leads the Blues in points (by 10) and +/-, and is the only forward with a positive rating (the other 3 are defensemen). Up +29 from last year, O’Reilly is aiming to finish with a positive rating for the first time since his rookie season, back in 2010 (+4). However skilled and tough defensively he is though, due to the Blues early woes (they had the league’s worst record at the end of November) he’s not a sure bet to post career highs for at least another season or two.
Jacob Markstrom ^Vancouver Last year: 23-26-7, .912% sv, 2.71 gaa (60 games) This year: 16-10-3, .910% sv, 2.80 gaa (29 games)
Wins needed for career best: 8. Shutouts needed for career best: 3. Games remaining: 30.
Vancouver should absolutely win 8 (and more) out of the 30 or so Markstrom should be goaltending. He had 2 shutouts last year, the only 2 in his career (182 games started, 11,013 minutes), so can 3 be possible? .912% sv over the past 4 years as a Canuck, which is up from .896 during his first 5 seasons before them. The lower numbers weren’t full seasons though, playing 66 games combined. He’s played 148 games since then and is 28. And Thatcher Demko is on the way, so Markstrom has to keep playing well.
Trending Down
Star skaters who have lower numbers this year:
Pat Maroon ^{St Louis} Last year: 17g-26a=43p, 7 ppp, 141 shots (74 games) This year: 3g-8a=11p, 8 ppp, 53 shots (31 games)
Dougie Hamilton ^Carolina Last year: 17g-27a=44p, 12 ppp, 270 shots (82 games) This year: 3g-7a=10p, 3 ppp, 126 shots (38 games)
Brayden Schenn ^{St Louis} Last year: 28g-42a=70p, 210 shots (82 games) This year: 7g-15a=22p, 70 shots, ^{down -19 rating} (33 games)
Alex Pietrangelo ^{St Louis} Last year: 15g-39a=54p, 216 shots (78 games) This year: 4g-7a=11p, 54 shots (26 games)
Jaden Schwartz ^{St Louis} Last year: 24g-35a=59p, 157 shots at 15.3% (62 games) This year: 3g-11a=14p, 58 shots at 5.2% (24 games) (stay healthy, use the schwartz)
Eric Staal ^Minnesota Last year: 42g-34a=76p, 241 shots (82 games) This year: 13g-12a=25p, 121 shots (37 games)
Anze Kopitar ^{Los Angeles} Last year: 35g-57a=92p, 27 ppp, 200 shots (82 games) This year: 9g-18a=27p, 7 ppp, 84 shots (39 games)
Shayne Gostisbehere ^Philadelphia Last year: 13g-52a=65p, +10 rating, 33 ppp, 221 shots (78 games) This year: 5g-11a=16p, -15 rating, 7 ppp, 96 shots (38 games)
William Karlsson ^{Las Vegas} Last year: 43g-35a=78p, +49 rating, 184 shots (82 games) This year: 15g-15a=30p, 0 rating, 87 shots (42 games)
Dion Phaneuf ^{Los Angeles} Last Year: 6g-20a=26p, 134 shots (79 games) This year: 1a=1p, 37 shots (33 games) (His ice time is down almost 9 minutes, from 23:45 average career to 14:54 this season. In his previous 13 full seasons, he never scored less than 26 points, with 10 seasons over 30 points. Just... unexplainable)
^{from the above list, compared with some leaders} Games with No Points:
Connor McDavid - 5 Mikko Rantanen - 7 Nikita Kucherov/Auston Matthews - 8 Blake Wheeler - 9 Leon Draisaitl/Alex Ovechkin - 10 Mitch MarneGabriel Landeskog/Sidney Crosby - 11 Brayden Point/Cam Atkinson/Mark Stone - 12 Mark Scheifele/Elias Lindholm/Jack Eichel - 13 Sean Monahan - 14 Matthew Tkachuk - 16
Games with Mutlipoints:
Nikita Kucherov - 20 Jack Eichel/Mikko Rantanen - 18 Mitch MarneConnor McDavid/Sidney Crosby - 17 Leon Draisaitl - 15 Brayden Point/Mark Scheifele/Sean Monahan -14 Elias Lindholm/Blake Wheeler - 13 Matthew Tkachuk/Gabriel Landeskog/Alex Ovechkin/Auston Matthews - 12 Cam Atkinson - 11 Mark Stone - 10
Jaroslav Halak has 2 assists this season, a new best. He also has a .928 sv % over 22 games, and has finished full seasons with a .921 or better 3 times, along with a 2.25 gaa or less (also 3 times). Remember him on St. Louis? Remember him in net for the Czechs? ‘Save Halak!’
(edit: 1-3-2019, Halak got another assist, now he has 3)
Next year
Viktor Arvidsson ^Nashville Last year: 29g-32a=61p, 8 ppp, 3 shp, 247 shots (78 games) This year: 9g-6a=15p, 1 ppp, 45 shots (16 games) Still good, and should see 75+ points over a healthy season. He’s shooting 21.6%, up from 11.4 average and is playing a minute more per game. Forsberg and Subban also had injuries this year, to name a few, which may or may not affect production. Look for Arvidsson to break out before he’s 30 (He’s 25). He’s also already finished campaigns with 29 and 31 goals, and should score 30 again.
Dustin Byfuglien
In his first 9 seasons: -46, 553 pims, 76 powerplay assists, 346* blocks (528 games, 10,551 minutes) In his past 5 seasons: +39, 524 pims, 72 powerplay assists, 427 blocks (331 games, 8,265 minutes)
Yet despite the improvements, his shooting percentage is down 2 points from then to now (8.6% on Chicago, 6.4% on Winnipeg). In the playoffs however, he doubles that and is shooting 12.5%, helping the Jets big time with 16 points in 17 games last year. He’s 33, and when it’s all said and done he should have 1000+ games, pims, hits, and blocks, with 0.6 points per game.
as of 12-31-2018. Happy New Year
(edit: *games remaining not accurate but only off by a few)

Slate Overview
Matchup | Back-to-Back | Points | Goals per Game Average, Expected Goals per Game, Shooting Percentage, Corsi for Percentage, Shots per Game Average | Goals Against per Game Average, Expected Goals Against per Game, Save Percentage, Corsi Against Percentage | Powerplay Percentage, Penalty Kill Percentage | Games Played Over Last 2 Seasons, Wins, Goals, Ceiling, Floor, Average | Vegas Odds | Win Percentage | Projection (WIP) | OveUnder Expectation
Special team stats have magically returned, though at this point in the season it’s worth looking into recent performance in these categories.
Note: I wrote this yesterday and thought I’d have time to update throughout the day. Then I got slammed with work and the city got hit with an icestorm, so my kid is also home with me today. Hopefully something here is helpful to you because it’s not being updated afterward!
The all-star break and bye weeks are over and we’re back into it. I’m sure at least a few of you have missed me around here! I’ve been a lot busier and stressed lately in general, so I’m not sure how much longer I’ll be able to continue. I’m happy to see a few people posting in my absence at least. Most of last month was an extremely frustrating streak of multiple lineups a point or two below the cash line for me. Not even really bad decisions so much as bad luck really. Hopefully I have a good run for the rest of the season.
This used to be the time of year where you would have a clear idea of who was going to make the playoffs and could make a killing just betting on the dominant teams to destroy the lowliers fighting for the best draft pick. No longer. Not really, anyway. Apart the few that have broken away from the pack, those outside the playoff picture are battling hard to get into it and those hanging onto wildcards will be trying to tighten up and stay there. With only four points being the difference maker for almost half the league right now, there’s a lot of intense hockey to be played yet, not to mention what shake-ups will come later this month headed toward the trade deadline. Outside the Kings and Devils sans Hall, and probably whatever the hell happened to the Ducks, even the Sens, Red Wings and especially teams like the Panthers, Hawks and Oilers, continue to be at least DFS-relevant despite sitting at the bottom of the standings. There’s so much talent and the pace is faster than ever.
We have a massive 14 game slate with enough potential offense that you’re really going to have to hit the nail square on the head for a solid win tonight. My usual strategy for a slate this large is to either pick one line I think will do well and stack them in multiple lineups with whatever logically fits, or else narrow it down to five or six lines I like and stack every possible combination. I’ll likely go with the latter tonight, as there’s no clear standout here for me. Enough of my rambling, let’s get on with it. I’m not really sure what contests you’re looking at tonight, but Fanduel is just getting straight up greedy. The $1.11 Draftkings contest with a $1k prize could be interesting if you’re new to MME, maybe?
[email protected]: The Sabres decided to hit the blender in their last game, so I’d be leery of picking anything on their side in fear they’ll just be split up again. And why bother, really? The Hurricanes continue to top the charts for possession metrics and had a dominant shutout win vs the Penguins in their last game with McElhinney returning, who has just been so good for them. They’ve also won seven straight against the Sabres. If there’s any reason to look Buffalo’s way, it’s that Carolina is also leading the league in shots and goes through bouts where they have difficulty scoring, so the Sabres options could make a high-risk but intriguing netminder if you have both a massive bankroll and set of testicles you’d like to throw around.
[email protected]: The Panthers have been an extremely frustrating team for me this year. I know management still thinks they’re in the playoff picture with the trade rumors that are being tossed around, they’re not exactly stacked with talent but there’s no question they have a roster capable of lighting the lamp a handful of times every night. Yet, they’ve barely been averaging a goal a game in their last five and are sitting near the bottom of the league far out of the actual playoff picture. That’s totally dropped the salaries of FLA1 to be stackable with almost anything, which keeps bringing me back to them every night, and the Pens have been middling about waiting for a healthy core and some jump to their step again. Maybe there’s even a narrative play here, considering the Brassard/Bjugstad/McCann/Sheahan trade that recently took place. Those aren’t exactly flashy names I’d like to plug into my roster though. It’s worth noting the Penguins are 6-1 in their last seven meetings and have scored four (or more!) here for the last three years and counting. What do I take away from all this? Neither of the top two lines have had trouble scoring against each other, and FLA1 in particular brings value to the table. I think there’s an argument to be made for either side, if not a game stack, really, but I’d lean harder on the Pens.
[email protected]: Even though they’ve cooled off considerably lately, Trotz still has to be a contender for coach of the year for turning an Islanders team that was something like deadlast in the league last season into a defensively strong playoff contender, despite losing Tavares in the offseason. The Devils are still managing to win a few games here and there, but my god are their underlying numbers awful and they’ve already confirmed they’ll be sellers this year by trading Boyle. The Isles have won three straight here and I expect they’ll get the win tonight, but whether they face enough shots and manage a pristine GAA to warrant a goaltender pick, I’m not so certain. Likewise, though they’ve had a decent floor of three goals in their last four meetings, they haven’t been scoring lately. Is it possible NYI1 or NYI2 get 3+ concentrated tonight? Sure, but they don’t really have enough value to warrant a must-play stack, even though the Devils are bad. I’d likely lean toward the top line of the two, if I were to take either. NJD1 gets full powerplay correlation if you’re looking for an ultra-contrarian play, but that’s a poor reason to consider it an option really.
[email protected]: Hart seems like a lock for cash tonight, with the Flyers on an epic winning streak while playing at home. I expect he’ll see decent ownership, anyway. They’ve been allowing a lot of shots against, which gives him reasonable upside as well. The Flyers top six are still relatively affordable if that interests you, and appear to be snakebitten with an overall sub-average shooting percentage lately, so they’re due for some positive regression. Kopitar quietly has nine points in his last five games, but, like, why bother? A Kings stack seems even more contrarian than a Devils one tonight.
[email protected]: Despite riding a four game losing streak, the Avs have had an elite Corsi-for percentage over their last four games, while the Caps have been giving up a lot of high danger scoring chances. It’s not the best matchup on the road, but on a slate this large COL1 should see lower ownership than usual. It’s just a matter of whether you see playoff-performance-Vezina-caliber Holtby or I-forgot-to-do-my-eye-exercises-and-I’m-constantly-screened-by-my-teammates Holtby playing tonight. The Caps have won seven of the last eight meetings though, and with a solid floor of 3+ goals in six of their last seven, so the same argument applies to the other end, I suppose. Considering the salaries of either side’s top lines you’re really going to need them to go off in unison to make it worth it, but it’s not without possibility.
[email protected]: I don’t know if the nets are smaller in Finland, but Kotkaniemi still has more posts to his name than goals so far this year. His shots are finally starting to see dividends though, but he doesn’t offer much in peripherals. Armia also gets a chance to play against his former team tonight and is priced at floor on Fanduel while also getting top powerplay and penalty killing duties. You could do worse for a punt if you like narrative+peripherals+assist potential, anyway, or even a mini-stack if you’re looking at any 4-forward powerplays tonight or something. Underlying metrics point toward the Habs being the better team lately and they pass the eye test as a fan, but unquestionably the Jets top line could come in and stomp them, especially if there’s undisciplined play, since the PK has been terrible and the Jets possess a great powerplay. Montreal might be one of the only contrarian plays I can see actually panning out tonight, but that’s obvious homer bias showing and it’s always difficult to determine where the goals are coming from too.
[email protected](b): The Sens are traveling after the Leafs game and are the only team on a back-to-back tonight. I… I mean, a team is breaking a losing streak here: that’s noteworthy, I guess? Either goaltender is potentially in play simply because I’m not sure either team is capable of scoring a goal right now. There’s basically no goals here historically either and both these teams have simply been awful. The Sens have been slightly less awful, for what it’s worth. Best of luck to you if you’re targeting this game, my friend. You’re on your own really.
[email protected]: The Golden Knights have lost four of their last five games and the Red Wings are on a winning streak. I’m not sure what to make of this sorcery other than Detroit has been lucky capitalizing on their high danger chances and Vegas has had a rough schedule, though they did manage to beat the league-leading Lightning on the road their last game. Take note that Zykov is the new Pirri (for now). I expect to see a lot of him in cash lineups tonight. VGK2 remains the line for me here, consistently putting up points and with full powerplay correlation. (Remarkably reasonable salary, considering how long they’ve been doing it as well.)
[email protected]: This should be a great matchup. The Blues have been playing to their potential lately and Binnington has been solid in relief of Allen’s mediocrity. Of course there’s reason to have the Lightning in play any night, but anything of value on either side comes at a very high cost and I’m crossing my fingers and toes this one doesn’t get out of hand. Simply a virtue of being on the best team in the league and because he’s playing at home, I’d entertain Vasilevskiy in net tonight if you’re looking for a lower ownership pivot. I’m definitely not talking you off anything here if it interests you though.
[email protected]: This matchup doesn’t really scream goals to me at a glance, though both teams have been playing very well of late. Turris is back and NSH2 is basically guaranteed to be low ownership while offering high value tonight for your big salary stacks. They only go off a handful of games a year, but will get the favorable faceoffs on home ice. For the Stars, it seems they’ve actually found a top six that’s working for them at the moment that doesn’t involve loading up the top line. I’m a tiny bit intrigued with both sides here, though I wouldn’t be surprised if it was a total bust fantasy-wise either.
[email protected]: The Oilers destroyed the Wild in their last matchup and basically every goal ever scored by the Oilers is coming from one of two players, so I am looking at McDavid and Draisaitl here, even if they’re not playing on the same line tonight. Yes, the Oilers are on a losing streak and are basically ruined as a franchise because of terrible asset management and contracts and… well, those two players are always fantasy relevant regardless. The team is due for a smidgen of positive regression, at least in terms of converting scoring chances. Like, maybe right now they’re like Dyson-level sucking but could drop to a Hoover or so. The top six from Minnesota on home ice looks like great value if either line can net two correlated goals here, though they usually just make me angry while I’m throwing money into the toilet.
[email protected]: The Vancouver Canucks are in the playoff picture. Who saw that coming this year? I can’t wait to see what this team can do when Hughes is called up and Pettersson can grow facial hair. The Hawks have dropped five straight to the Canucks and allowed 4+ in those losses. I’m not sure how much weight I want to put on that considering the huge roster changes, that those goals came from all over the place, that Edler’s out, that the Canucks are on the road, etc. but I think there’s a good chance for goals on either side here, if you can figure out where they’re coming from. The top line from the Hawks has been insanely productive lately and Caggiula at least offers a bit of salary relief while Kane’s price tag skyrockets toward five figures.
[email protected]: This matchup scares me the most tonight, with both sides capable of causing some serious damage and neither particularly strong defensively. There’s no reasonable possibility of doing a gamestack here, but I can’t bring myself to avoid both sides of this if I’m going to make any effort tonight. This only gets more challenging if Karlsson returns. There are very few possibilities to get a full stack with Giordano or Burns involved, but I’ve already mentioned a couple and you’ll see me at the top if they go off.
[email protected]: I feel so bad for the Coyotes, they just cannot catch a break. Maybe next year is their year but for now it’s not looking good. Neither team have been great lately, but the Blue Jackets have won four of five here historically, for whatever that’s worth to you. If I really need some value, ARI1 is in a decent position and the least expensive top line in the NHL. It’s not really anything to get excited about, but the option is there and it will take little to pay themselves off. I’d be more interested in Columbus if Panarin is moved back to the top line, especially since Dubois has been possessed lately.
This is all likely too much to digest, so I’ll just reprise my original thoughts: there’s enough value tonight to pay up for the big lines from Colorado, Washington, Pittsburgh, Tampa, San Jose, Calgary, Winnipeg, Chicago, etc. and enough possibility for two moderately priced lines from, say, Montreal and Florida, to go off. Pick a strategy and run with it or you’ll go crazy on a slate this large. Best of luck! There’s a twelve game slate next Tuesday and an eleven game slate next Thursday. I’ll try to find the time to keep these coming but I make no guarantees.
General NHL DFS Primer
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