The market offers a host of different financial instruments, each of which have their advantages and disadvantages. The following is a comparison of different S&P 500 derivatives, so that you can make informed choices which ones to use. TL;DR version provided at bottom.
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	SPY	SPY** Options	SPX* Options	/ES & /SP Futures	/ES & /SP Options	SPXU	SPXU Options
Option Style	N/A	American	European	N/A	European (except quarterlies)	N/A	American
Option Settlement	N/A	SPY Stock	Cash	N/A	1x /ES or /SP contract	N/A	SPXU Stock
Annual Dividend Yield	1.85%	None	None	None	None	1.85%	None
Net Expense Ratio	0.0945%	None	None	None	None	0.91%	None
Leverage ratio vs SPY	1:1	100:1	1,000:1	500:1 (/ES), 2,500:1 (/SP)	500:1 (/ES), 2,500:1 (/SP)	-30:1	-3,000:1
Risk Management	Stop order (non guaranteed)	Guaranteed with defined-risk trades	Guaranteed with defined-risk trades	Stop order (non guaranteed)	Guaranteed with defined-risk trades	Stop order (non guaranteed)	Guaranteed with defined-risk trades
U.S. Taxation	Traditional capital gains	Traditional capital gains	Section 1256	Section 1256	Section 1256	Traditional capital gains	Traditional capital gains
Relative Liquidity	High	High	Med	High	Variable	High	High
Contract Expirations Traded	N/A	M/W/F weeklies, monthlies, quarterlies, leaps	M/W/F weeklies, monthlies, quarterlies, leaps	M/W/F weeklies, monthlies, quarterlies	M/W/F weeklies, monthlies, quarterlies	N/A	Monthlies
Exchanges Where traded	Most exchanges	Most exchanges	CBOE	GLOBEX	GLOBEX	Most exchanges	Most exchanges
Hours traded	9:30-4 Eastern	9:30-4:15 Eastern	9:30-4:15 Eastern	See here	See here	9:30-4 Eastern	9:30-4:15 Eastern
Commissions	Depends on exchange & broker	High	Med	Med	Med	Depends on exchange & broker	Med-Low

*Note that SPX cannot be traded, as it is not an ETF like SPY. However, it is possible to trade *options* on SPX. Also, 1 SPY = 1/10 of SPX.
**Note 2: Northstat helpfully points out that XSP is a mini-SPX contract (european style, cash settled, and section 1256 tax treatment), but is sized 1/10 of SPX just like SPY. However, at a glance it seems to be pretty thinly traded, so use DD here if you decide to brave the bid/ask spreads.

Option Style

There are two option styles: American and European. American options can be exercised at any time the option is ITM. European options can only be exercised upon expiration.
European options are simpler and more predictable since no one can exercise on you early and potentially screw up your trades, so I prefer them for day-trading for that reason.

Option Settlement

Options can settle to the underlying equity or can settle to cash.
If you sell a cash-secured SPY put that expires ITM, you will be obligated to buy the SPY shares at the strike price, and will receive those SPY shares in your account.
If you sell a cash-secured SPX put that expires ITM, your account will pay the difference between SPX index price and SPX contract strike price in cash. There are no SPX stock/ETF/shares, so it settles with cash instead.

Annual Dividend and Expense Ratios

S&P 500 ETFs will pay dividends to the stock holder. Holding options on those ETFs won't get you squat - you will only get dividends on shares that you actually in possess of in your account.
You'll notice that inverse ETFs like SPXU pay dividends just like the SPY ETF. That's because when you're shorting shares (which is effectively what ETFs like SPXU are doing), you get the dividends on the borrowed shares if you happen to be holding them on the ex-dividend date.
Most ETFs will also have an expense ratio, which cover the costs of managing the ETF. These fees have a compounding effect against you for ETFs held over the long-term. The SPY ETF expense ratio is fairly low, although it's worth noting that there are some mutual funds like FNILX which offer a 0% expense ratio.
SPXU has a higher expense ratio in relation to SPY, but both the dividend payment (as well as the expense ratio) are effectively a non-factor, because you should not be holding inverse ETFs for more than a few days. In fact, the promised returns for leveraged inverse ETFs are only on a daily basis, which is the holding period they're designed for. See here to understand the problem with longer-term holding periods for leveraged ETFs.
Also keep in mind that some brokers offer a "share lending" program, which will pay you interest on shares loaned to other people who want to short those shares. When loaning your shares, you don't get the dividend payments (the borrower does). But one issue with these programs is that interest paid to you for share loans is taxed at your ordinary income rate, whereas dividends are taxed at the more favorable long-term capital gains rates (more on this further below).

Leverage Ratio Vs SPY

1 SPY = 1/10 SPX
1 /ES = 50 SPX
1 SPXU = 3 SPX
100 units per contract of SPY, SPX, and SPXU. 1 unit per contract of /ES and /SP.
/SP futures and options on 3x-leveraged ETFs have the highest total leverage. Use extra DD when trading these.

Risk Management

First, some terms. Defined Risk = max loss is guaranteed to some known value. Undefined Risk = max loss is unconstrained.
With options, you can avoid undefined risk when using the right spreads. For example, debit spreads are one way of limiting the maximum potential loss (which is limited to the debit paid to enter the trade).
With other instruments like stocks, you can set stop-losses as the desired loss levels. However, you run the risk of a gap-down, especially when held overnight or over the weekend, which blows past your stop limit.
Therefore, options are superior when it comes to risk-management when used appropriately. However, not all options trades are defined risk (e.g., naked puts).
Also note that your risk relative to the leverage ratios above. Obviously you are putting a lot more money at risk in one /ES options contract than in one SPY options contract.

U.S. Taxation

The following explains tax implications as of 2020 for a U.S. citizen. It may be different if you are outside the U.S., but I can only speak to the U.S. tax code.
Traditional Capital Gains: 100% short-term capital gains if holding period <= 365 days, 100% long-term capital gains otherwise. Taxes are assessed at time of sale, regardless of holding period. Wash-sale rule applies for traditional contracts.
Section 1256 Contracts: 60% long-term, and 40% short-term capital gains/losses, regardless of holding period. Taxes are assessed at the end of each calendar year regardless whether you sold it or not. Wash-sale rule is N/A for 1256 contracts.
I won't post the tax rates here, but suffice to say as of 2020, long-term capital gains tax rates are much more favorable rate than short-term gains (roughly half, depending on your brackets).
Something else you need to understand about how capital gains are calculated. First, long-term gains cancel out long-term losses, and short-term gains cancel out short-term losses. Only after this can short-term and long-term capital gains/losses cancel out each other.
Some scenarios that help drive home the implications of the above:

1. You trade Section 1256 contracts this year and are profitable. This saves you approximately 7-10% on taxes levied on your trading activity by trading contracts like SPX instead of contracts like SPY.
2. You hold profitable Section 1256 contracts as long-term investments through the end-of-year. You are hit with 60/40 taxes on the "gains" of these contracts for tax year 2020 (even though you haven't sold them). You sell the contract a year after you bought it at a further gain in 2021, and pay the 60/40 split on your 2021 taxes for any additional gains since the 2020 end-of-year tax payment. You would have been better off with a traditional contract that A) would have deferred your full tax payment to 2021, and B) would be taxed at the more favorable 100% long-term capital gains instead of 60/40 split.
3. You hold unprofitable Section 1256 contracts as long-term investments through the end-of-year. You get a 60/40 tax writeoff on the "losses" of these contracts for tax year 2020 (even though you haven't sold them). You sell the contract a year after you bought it at a loss in 2021, and get a 60/40 writeoff on your 2021 taxes on any additional losses since the 2020 end-of-year tax deduction. You have done yourself a favor in this case because A) you reduced your taxes in 2020 instead of deferring losses to 2021, and B) you have more useful short-term losses to offset other higher-taxed short-term gains, rather than 100% long-term losses for traditional contracts held for over 1 year. (If you're wondering why you can't take advantage of (A) for traditional contracts, lookup the Wash Sale rule.)
4. You trade traditional contracts this year and are unprofitable. Your losses are 100% short-term capital losses, which is more helpful in offsetting other higher-taxed short-term capital gains you have from other trading activities (e.g. those sweet TSLA puts).
5. You acquire SPY shares which you plan to hold for more than 2 years. You collect dividends and avoid paying taxes on capital gains, potentially indefinitely (i.e. if you never sell). Whereas with options, the farthest-dated LEAPs are 2 years out, after which time you would have to realize a capital gain or loss. You can sell covered calls for additional income, but may want to wait 1 year before doing so to avoid your shares being called away during that period and paying short-term capital gains. It's complicated.

In summary:

1. For profitable short-term trading activities (0-1 yrs), trade Section 1256 contracts
2. For unprofitable short-term trading activities (0-1 yrs), trade traditional options contracts
3. For profitable long-term trading activities (1-2 yrs), trade traditional options contracts
4. For unprofitable long-term trading activities (1+ yrs), trade Section 1256 contracts
5. For profitable long-term bets with > 2 year holding period, hold SPY shares. Sell covered calls after 1 year holding period for additional income if desired.

Relative Liquidity

Since 1 SPY = 1/10 SPX, we expect bid/ask spreads for SPX options to be 10x as big as SPY. Anecdotally in the last couple weeks, I saw larger spreads than expected in SPX options, especially when IV got pumped up. This is the primary drawback I have seen so far trading SPX options.
/ES futures are very solid in daytime trading hours. I haven't traded /ES options and SPXU or SPXU options, so I'm not entirely sure how they compare.

Contract Expirations Traded

Keep in mind that different contract expirations will have different liquidity. In general, I have seen the highest liquidity for monthly contracts. Near-dated weeklies can be alright, but I usually see the largest volume on the monthlies.
I would avoid the quarterlies on SPX, as they seem to have the lowest volume. LEAPs are somewhere in between, and obviously is your only choice for long-term speculation besides owning SPY shares outright.

Exchanges and Hours Traded

Different contracts trade on different exchanges, and each exchange can have its own rules about hours of operation, comissions, etc.
For this reason it's possible that the same contract could trade at different hours depending which exchange your contract is traded on.
For example, CBOE allows for options trading on its exchanges for another 15 minutes after markets close, but this is not true for all exchanges. Furthermore, the same exchange can have different trading hours for different contracts.
It gets even more crazy when you look at holidays and other special events, as different exchanges have different rules about when they shutdown depending on the day-of-week that different holidays fall on.
Depending on your broker, you may be able to select the desired exchange explicitly, or your broker may offer a "smart order router" which tries to intelligently route your order to the exchange with the best fill price.

Commissions

Commissions vary widely depending on the exchange your order is routed to, in addition to your broker's fees. There are a lot of gotchas here. For example, some brokers (e.g. IBKR) levy heavy fees for trading /CL compared with other futures.
More generally, the total commissions you pay will depend on the type of contract, and will be inversely correlated to the leverage ratio. In other words, it's cheaper to trade one /ES options contract than it is to trade the equivalent 250 SPY options contracts. However, being mindful of your risk tolerance is the more important consideration here.

Reasons to trade leveraged inverse ETFs?

I haven't traded the inverse ETFs, so I don't know as much about them. However my understanding is that it could be advantageous to trade SPXU rather than buying premium-rich puts in a high-IV environment, or if you want to avoid the possibility of IV crush. There are also other ways to hedge IV (e.g. put spreads, options contracts placed on the VIX, etc). However, they have their own set of gotchas.

TL;DR

We'll make the assumption that you're profitable, and that your primary motivation is choosing the most tax-advantaged strategy which matches your investment horizons. In this case:

1. Use SPX options, /ES, and /ES options for short-term trades (trades closed in less than 1 year).
   1. Be careful if you hold any of these contracts through the end of the calendar year (you'll owe taxes on any gains because they are "marked to market").
   2. Consider SPXU and/or spreads or VIX IV hedging if IV is too high to buy straight puts.
2. Use SPY LEAP options for trades that will last 1-2 years.
   1. Either roll-out at expiration for another 1-2 years, or exercise to hold SPY shares (see #3 below).
   2. In current high IV environment, cash-secured puts and put credit spreads work well for long-term bullishness.
3. Hold SPY shares if you plan to keep them for over 2 years.
   1. SPY shares can be initially acquired with long-dated leaps above, or via a short-dated cash-secured put if you want to own spy shares sooner.
   2. Optionally begin selling covered calls for additional income after holding shares for 1 year.

TL;DR of TL;DR

Trade Index Options like SPX and futures instead of SPY to save on taxes and stick it to the IRS. Don't give mnuchin any more of your tendies, make him get them from big daddy powell instead. Money printer go brrr already and doesn't need your help, so don't give it.

There is a sense of almost detached resignation amid trading desks as we enter the last trading day of a chaotic, volatile week that has whipsawed and stopped out virtually everyone after the Nasdaq saw the biggest intraday reversal since Thursday and pattern and momentum trading has become impossible amid one headline tape-bomb after another.
After yesterday furious tumble and sharp, last hour rebound, US equity futures are once again lower expecting fresh developments in the Huawei CFO arrest and trade war saga while today's payroll report may redirect the Fed's tightening focus in wage growth comes in hotter than the 3.1% expected; at the same time European stocks have rebounded from their worst day in more than two years while Asian shares posted modest gains as investors sought to end a bruising week on a more upbeat note. While stock trading was far calmer than Thursday, signs of stress remained just below the surface as the dollar jumped, Treasuries rose and oil whipsawed amid fears Iran could scuttle today's OPEC deal.

The MSCI All-Country World Index, which tracks shares in 47 countries, was up 0.3% on the day, on track to end the week down 2%.
After Europe's Stoxx 600 Index sharp drop on Thursday, which tumbled the most since the U.K. voted to leave the EU in 2016, Friday saw Europe's broadest index jump 1.2% as every sector rallied following the cautious trade in the Asia-Pac session and the rebound seen on Wall Street where the Dow clawed back nearly 700 points from intraday lows. European sectors are experiencing broad-based gains with marginal outperformance in the tech sector as IT names bounce back from yesterday’s Huawei-driven slump.

Technology stocks lead gains on Stoxx 600 Index, with the SX8P Index up as much as 2.3%, outperforming the 1.1% gain in the wider index; Nokia topped the sector index with a 5.9% advance in Helsinki after Thursday’s public holiday, having missed out on initial gains from rival Huawei’s troubles that earlier boosted Ericsson. Inderes said the arrest of Huawei CFO over potential violations of American sanctions on Iran will benefit Nokia and Ericsson, who are the main rivals of Huawei and ZTE. Similarly, Jefferies wrote in a note on Chinese networks that China may have to offer significant concessions to buy Huawei an “out of jail” card and reach a trade deal, with China’s tech subsidies and “buy local” policies potentially under attack. "For example, why would Nokia and Ericsson have only 20% share in China’s 4G market," analysts wrote.
Meanwhile, energy names were volatile as the complex awaits further hints from the key OPEC+ meeting today. In terms of individual movers, Fresenius SE (-15.0%) fell to the foot of the Stoxx 600 after the company cut medium-term guidance, citing lower profit expectations at its clinics unit Helios and medical arm Fresenius Medical Care (-7.8%). The news sent Fresenius BBB- rated bonds tumbling, renewing fears of a deluge of "fallen angels." On the flip side, Bpost (+7.5%) and Tesco (+4.8%) are hovering near the top of the pan-Europe index amid broker upgrades.
Earlier in the session, Japanese equities outperformed as most Asian gauges nudged higher. MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan nudged up 0.2%, though that followed a 1.8 percent drubbing on Thursday. Japan’s Nikkei added 0.8 percent. Chinese shares, which were up earlier in the day, slipped into negative territory with the blue chips off 0.1 percent.


E-Mini futures for the S&P 500 also started firmer but were last down 0.4 percent. Markets face a test from U.S. payrolls data later in the session amid speculation that the U.S. economy is heading for a tough patch after years of solid growth.
Will the last employment report released this year (the December report comes out in early January) help markets to continue to form a base? The consensus for nonfarm payrolls today is for a 198k print, following the stronger-thanexpected 250k reading last month. Average hourly earnings are expected to rise +0.3% mom which should be enough to keep the annual reading at +3.1% yoy while the unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 3.7%. DB's economists are more or less in line with the consensus with a 200k forecast and also expect earnings to climb +0.3% mom, however that would be consistent with a small tick up in the annual rate to +3.17% and the fastest pace since April 2009. They also expect the current pace of job growth to push the unemployment rate down to 3.6% which would be the lowest since December 1969.
Meanwhile, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell confused traders when late on Thursday, he emphasized the strength of the labor market, throwing a wrench into trader expectations the Fed is poised to pause tightening - arguably the catalyst for Thursday's market-closing ramp following a WSJ article which reported Fed officials were considering whether to signal a new wait-and-see mentality after a likely rate increase at their meeting in December.

While Friday's market has stabilized, for many the recent gyrations are just too much. For Dennis Debusschere, head of portfolio strategy at Evercore ISI, there’s still far too much risk to wade back into a market this riven by volatility. “Overall still untradeable in our opinion, until we get more clarity on trade and we think it will pay to wait this out,” he wrote in a note to clients Thursday. “That being said, our desk is open for business if you’re feeling up to trading this backdrop.”
Meanwhile, the big question is what happens next year: “The big question mark still is what’s going to happen in 2019” with the Fed, Omar Aguilar, CIO of equities and multi-asset strategies at Charles Schwab, told Bloomberg TV. “The jobs report could easily be the catalyst that will tell us a little more about what the path may be.”
Expecting that a big slowdown is coming, interest rate futures rallied hard in massive volumes with the market now pricing in less than half a hike next year, compared to just a month ago when they had been betting on more than two increases. Treasuries extended their blistering rally, driving 10-year yields down to a three-month trough at 2.8260 percent, before last trading at 2.8863 percent. Yields on two-year notes fell a huge 10 basis points at one stage on Thursday and were last at 2.75 percent. Investors also steamrolled the yield curve to its flattest in over a decade, a trend that has historically presaged economic slowdowns and even recessions.
The seismic shock spread far and wide. Yields on 10-year paper sank to the lowest in six months in Germany, almost 12 months in Canada and 16 months in Australia. Italian debt climbed as European bonds largely drifted.
The greenback advanced against most of its Group-of-10 peers ahead of U.S. jobs data that are expected to show hiring slowed last month. The pound fell as U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May was said to be weighing a plan to postpone the vote on her Brexit deal.
In commodity markets, gold firmed to near a five-month peak as the dollar eased and the threat of higher interest rates waned. Spot gold stood 0.1 percent higher at $1,239.49 per ounce. Oil was less favored, however, falling further as OPEC delayed a decision on output cuts while awaiting support from non-OPEC heavyweight Russia. Brent futures fell 0.5 percent to $59.77 a barrel, while U.S. crude also lost half a percent to $51.19. Cryptocurrencies continued their collapse with fresh losses after U.S. regulators dashed hopes that a Bitcoin exchange-traded fund would appear before the end of this year.
Market Snapshot

• S&P500 futures down 0.4% to 2,680.00
• STOXX Europe 600 up 1.3% to 347.69
• MXAP up 0.2% to 151.21
• MXAPJ up 0.2% to 485.67
• Nikkei up 0.8% to 21,678.68
• Topix up 0.6% to 1,620.45
• Hang Seng Index down 0.4% to 26,063.76
• Shanghai Composite up 0.03% to 2,605.89
• Sensex up 0.9% to 35,631.53
• Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.4% to 5,681.49
• Kospi up 0.3% to 2,075.76
• German 10Y yield rose 0.8 bps to 0.244%
• Euro down 0.05% to $1.1368
• Italian 10Y yield rose 13.9 bps to 2.835%
• Spanish 10Y yield unchanged at 1.46%
• Brent futures up 0.2% to $60.16/bbl
• Gold spot up 0.2% to $1,239.70
• U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 96.88

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

• The arrest of Huawei Technologies Co. Chief Financial Officer Meng Wanzhou in Canada over potential violations of American sanctions on Iran has triggered a debate in China over whether to carry on with trade talks with the U.S. or link the two issues and retaliate; Meng will have a bail hearing Friday to determine whether she is a flight risk and should remain in detention during proceedings on extradition to the U.S.
• Oil extended losses near $51 a barrel after OPEC entered a second day of talks in an attempt to draw up a deal to cut output. Iran sees no possibility of agreeing to reduce its output, Oil Minister Bijan Zanganeh said Friday
• Theresa May met with her top ministers in London on Thursday to discuss options of delaying the Dec. 11 Parliamentary vote on her Brexit deal to avoid a landslide defeat that would risk a major U.K. political crisis, according to a person familiar with the matter
• EU leaders are poised to turn their next summit into a Brexit crisis meeting, but so far, it doesn’t look like they’re willing to offer her anything that could help to break the deadlock in the U.K. Parliament
• Angela Merkel’s long exit from politics begins Friday when her party gathers in Hamburg to decide whether to appoint her chosen successor as its new leader or break with the legacy of her 13 years in charge of Germany
• Italian Finance Minister Giovanni Tria has complained that he is the victim of one ambush after another as his future is called into question amid tensions with populist leaders over a spending spree to fund election policies, according to newspaper Il Giornale

Asian stocks saw cautious gains with the region getting an early tailwind after the sharp rebound on Wall St, where most majors inished lower albeit off worse levels as tech recovered and the DJIA clawed back nearly 700 points from intraday lows. ASX 200 (+0.4%) and Nikkei 225 (+0.8%) were both higher at the open but gradually pared some of the gains as the risk tone began to turn cautious heading into today’s key-risk NFP jobs data. Hang Seng (-0.3%) and Shanghai Comp (U/C) were indecisive amid further PBoC inaction in which it remained net neutral for a 5th consecutive week and with the upcoming Chinese trade data over the weekend adding to tentativeness, while pharmaceuticals were the worst hit due to concerns of price declines from the government’s centralized procurement program. Finally, 10yr JGBs were flat amid a similar picture in T-note futures and although early selling pressure was seen in Japanese bonds alongside the strong open in stocks, prices later recovered as the risk appetite somewhat dissipated.
Top Asian News - China’s FX Reserves Rose Despite Intervention, Outflow Signs - Hong Kong May Slip Into Recession in 2019, Deutsche Bank Warns - SoftBank Seeks to Assuage Investors on Pre-IPO Mobile Outage - Southeast Asia Reserves Recover a Bit in November as Rout Eases
European equities extended on gains from the cash open (Eurostoxx 50 +1.2%) following the cautious trade in the Asia-Pac session and the rebound seen on Wall St where the Dow clawed back nearly 700 points from intraday lows. European sectors are experiencing broad-based gains with marginal outperformance in the tech sector as IT names bounce back from yesterday’s Huawei-driven slump. Meanwhile, energy names are volatile (currently marginally underperforming) as the complex awaits further hints from the key OPEC+ meeting today. In terms of individual movers, Fresenius SE (-15.0%) fell to the foot of the Stoxx 600 after the company cut medium-term guidance, citing lower profit expectations at its clinics unit Helios and medical arm Fresenius Medical Care (-7.8%). On the flip side, Bpost (+7.5%) and Tesco (+4.8%) are hovering near the top of the pan-Europe index amid broker upgrades.
Top European News

• LandSec, Undeterred by Brexit, Makes New Bet on London Offices
• Danske Says It’s Looking Into Selling Its Swedish Pension Assets
• Chinese Group Agrees to Buy Amer Sports in $5.2 Billion Deal
• Bad Air Warnings in London And Paris Peak With Fish And Chips

Currencies:

• DXY- Typically rangebound trade in the run up to US labour data, and with markets also monitoring OPEC+ headlines as a decision on whether to cut output and if so by how much remains highly uncertain. The index is hovering just under the 97.000 handle within a 96.767-96.931 band, and well within nearest technical support and resistance levels at 96.300 and 97.311 respectively.
• GBP- A marginal G10 underperformer as Cable retreats back below 1.2750 from just above 1.2800 at one stage, but this could be more flow-related rather than anything fundamental as EuGbp rallied towards 0.8930 peaks from just under the big figure into the Frankfurt fixing before drifting back again. However, Halifax house prices were much weaker than expected and latest Brexit news is hardly Sterling supportive given more speculation about delaying the meaningful vote to try and avoid a resounding rejection, even though the Government appears to be resolute and standing firm on December 11.
• NZD/AUD- The Kiwi is at the opposite end of a relatively narrow Usd/Major spectrum, and like the Pound also impacted by indirect factors to a degree, if not in the main. Indeed, Nzd/Usd remains capped ahead of 0.6900, but Aud/Nzd is pivoting 1.0500 as the Aussie unit continues to feel the adverse effects of recent bearish impulses, namely softer than forecast Q3 GDP and a more dovish RBA via Debelle. Hence, Aud/Usd is softer between 0.7210-40 parameters and bound to be wary of huge option expiries from 0.7250-60 in 6.6 bn that form a formidable barrier ahead of circa 1.2 bn up at 0.7300.
• EUJPY- In the pre-NFP ‘hiatus’ and awaiting anything further on the Italian budget front, option expiries may also exert directional impetus on EuUsd and Usd/Jpy, as the former faces 2+ bn at the 1.1400 strike and latter is flanked by 1+ bn at 112.50 and 113.00.
• CAD- The Loonie has pared a bit more lost ground from recent lows, albeit partly due to a broad Usd retracement, eyeing OPEC and also Canada’s jobs report given latest BoC guidance indicating even greater data dependency. Usd/Cad currently just shy of the 1.3400 mark vs 1.3440+ at one stage yesterday.

In commodities, WTI (+0.2%) and Brent (+0.9%) are choppy in what was a volatile session thus far as comments from energy ministers emerged ahead of the key OPEC+ meeting, after yesterday’s OPEC talks ended with no deal for the first time in almost five years. Brent rose after source reports noted that Moscow are ready to cut output by 200k BPD (below OPEC’s desire of 250k-300k but above Russia’s prior “maximum” of 150k) if OPEC are willing to curb production by over 1mln BPD. Prices then fell to session lows following a less constructive tone from Saudi Energy Minister who reiterated that he is not confident there will be a deal today, which came after delegates noted that OPEC talks are focused on a combined OPEC+ cut of 1mln BPD (650k from OPEC and 350k from Non-OPEC). Markets are awaiting the start of the OPEC+ meeting after delegates stated that talks are at deadlocked as Iran appears to be the main sticking point to an OPEC deal, though sources emerged stating that Iran, Venezuela and Libya are set to get exemptions from cuts, adding that OPEC and Russia are looking for a symbolic production commitment from Iran as fears arise that Iran may not be able to follow-through on curb pledges due to US sanctions. In terms of metals, gold hovers around session highs and is set for the best week since August with the USD trading in a tight range ahead of the key US jobs data later today, while London copper rose over a percent is underpinned by the positive risk tone.
US Event Calendar

• 8:30am: Change in Nonfarm Payrolls, est. 198,000, prior 250,000
  • Unemployment Rate, est. 3.7%, prior 3.7%; Underemployment Rate, prior 7.4%
  • Average Hourly Earnings MoM, est. 0.3%, prior 0.2%; YoY, est. 3.1%, prior 3.1%
• 8:30am: Average Weekly Hours All Employees, est. 34.5, prior 34.5
• 10am: Wholesale Inventories MoM, est. 0.7%, prior 0.7%; Wholesale Trade Sales MoM, prior 0.2%
• 10am: U. of Mich. Sentiment, est. 97, prior 97.5; Current Conditions, prior 112.3; Expectations, prior 88.1
• 3pm: Consumer Credit, est. $15.0b, prior $10.9b

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
The age of innocence has truly gone in financial markets after a turbulent 24 hours but one that saw a spectacular rally after Europe closed last night and one that has steadily carried on in Asia overnight (more on this below). Before we get to that I’m on an intense client marketing roadshow at the moment on the 2019 Credit outlook and there are a litany of worries out there from investors. Maybe I’m trying to be too cute here but I think the problems we’re seeing in credit at the moment are more of a “ghost of Xmas future” rather than a sign of an imminent disaster scenario. However my overall confidence that credit will blow up around the end of this cycle has only intensified in the last couple of weeks. Liquidity is awful in credit and it’s been a broken two way market for several years (probably as long as I’ve worked in it - 24 years). However this has got worse this cycle as the size of the market has grown rapidly but dealer balance sheets have reduced. As such you can buy massive size at new issue but your ability to sell in secondary is constrained to a small percentage of this. This didn’t matter much when inflows dominated - as they mostly did in this cycle pre-2018 - but in a year of outflows across the board the lack of a proper two way market is increasingly being felt. As discussed I don’t think this is the start of the crisis yet but be warned that when this economic cycle does roll over or even starts to operate at stall speed the credit market will be very messy and will influence other markets again.
On the positive side and despite a very steep mid-session selloff, US markets ultimately closed well off the lows. The DOW, S&P 500 and NASDAQ finished -0.32%, -0.15% and +0.42% respectively, though they traded as low as -3.14%, -2.91%, and -2.43% respectively, around noon in New York. At its lows, the S&P 500 was on course for its worst two-session stretch since February, and before that you’d have to go back to August 2015 or 2011 to find the last episode with as steep a two-day drop. The DOW and S&P 500 dipped into negative territory for the year again, but clawed back and are now +0.92% and +0.84% YTD (+3.16% and +2.69% on a total return basis). The NASDAQ has clung to its outperformance, as it is now up +4.13% this year, or +5.20% on a total return basis, though of course the difference is narrower in the low-dividend paying, high-growth tech index.
Unsurprisingly, the moves yesterday coincided with higher volatility with the VIX climbing as much as +5.2pts to 25.94 and pretty much back to the October highs, though it too rallied alongside the equity market to end close to flat at 21.15. Meanwhile, the price action was even uglier in Europe as the US lows were around the close. The STOXX 600 plunged -3.09% and is down -4.22% in two days – the most in two days since June 2016. Nowhere was safe. The DAX (-3.48%), CAC (-3.32%), FTSE MIB (-3.54%) and IBEX (-2.75%) all saw huge moves lower. The DAX has now joined the Italy’s FSTEMIB in bear market territory, as it is now -20.49% off its highs earlier this year. The FTSEMIB is down -24.04% from its highs. European Banks – which were already down nearly -27% YTD going into yesterday – tumbled -4.29% for the biggest daily fall since May and the third biggest since immediately after Brexit. The index is now at the lowest since October 2016 and within 17% of the June 2016 lows all of a sudden. US Banks fell -1.87%, though they had dipped -4.3% at their troughs to touch the lowest level since September 2017.
As for credit, HY cash spreads in Europe and the US were +8.5bps and +14.8bps wider respectively. For context, US spreads are now at the widest since December 2016 and this is the best performing broad credit market over the last couple of years. In bond markets, 10y Treasuries rallied-2.4bps but was as much as 9bps lower intra-day. Thanks to an outperformance at the front end (two-year fell -3.7bps), the 2s10s curve actually ended a shade steeper at 13.0bps (+1.3bps on the day). However that move for the 10y now puts it at the lowest since September at 2.89%, and only +48.6bps above where we started the year. The spread on the Dec 19 to Dec 18 eurodollar contract – indicative for what is priced into Fed hikes for next year - is down to just 16bps. It was at 60bps in October. This certainly appears to be too low, though a Wall Street Journal article yesterday seemed to signal a willingness by the Fed to moderate its pace of rate hikes. Finally, in Europe, Bunds closed -4.1bps lower at 0.236%.
Quite amazing moves with Bunds continuing to defy all fundamental logic and trading instead as a risk-off lightning rod. There was some talk that the sharp moves lower at the open yesterday were exaggerated by the unexpected midweek close for markets in the US which resulted in futures systems failing to be programmed to adjust and orders backing up. However the combination of a -2.25% drop for WTI (-5.2% at the lows) post the OPEC meeting (more below) and the Huawei story that we mentioned yesterday certainly aided to the initial malaise. There was some talk that both the Chinese and US authorities would have been aware of the arrest before last weekend’s talks and as such this story shouldn’t be necessarily a threat to the truce, though Reuters reported last night that President Trump did not know about the planned arrest. The implications of this are unclear, since it could mean that Trump has less direct control over the arresting agency, but it could also indicate that the move is not part of trade policy. Either way, how this development will be key for the market moving forward, especially any response from Chinese officials.
This morning in Asia markets are largely trading higher with the Nikkei (+0.60%), Hang Seng (+0.21%), Shanghai Comp (+0.08%) and Kospi (+0.51%) all up. Elsewhere, futures on the S&P 500 (-0.11%) are pointing towards a flattish start. Meantime crude oil (WTI -0.39% and Brent -0.60%) prices are continuing to trade lower this morning. It wouldn’t be an EMR worth it’s place in the daily schedule without an Italy and Brexit update. As we go to print Italian daily La Stampa has reported that the Italian Premier Conte and Deputy Premier Di Maio are in favour of the resignation of Finance Minister Tria while Deputy Premier Salvini is against his resignation. So signs of tension. In the U.K. a few press articles (like Bloomberg) are suggesting that PM May is considering postponing Tuesday’s big vote. There doesn’t seem to be a lot of substance to the story at the moment but it mentions going back to the EU for concessions on the Irish backstop as one possibility. How the EU will feel would be the obvious question.
As mentioned earlier, oil had a difficult session yesterday, falling back to its recent lows with WTI touching a $50 handle and Brent trading back below $60 per barrel. The first day of the OPEC summit did not appear promising for the odds of a new production deal, as the ministers apparently discussed a 1 million barrel per day cut, below the 1.5 million needed to balance the market.The Libyan oil minister abruptly left before the day’s meetings concluded, and the organization canceled their scheduled press conference. The Russian delegation will join the OPEC contingent today in an effort to finalize a deal, but Saudi Energy Minister al-Falih said that “Russia is not ready for a substantial cut.” Watch this space today.
Overnight, the Fed Chair Powell delivered an upbeat message on the US economy and the Job market ahead of today’s payrolls release. He said, “our economy is currently performing very well overall, with strong job creation and gradually rising wages,’’ while adding, “in fact, by many national-level measures, our labour market is very strong.’’ Elsewhere, the Fed’s John Williams said yesterday that the biggest challenge which the policy makers are facing is achieving a soft landing. He said, “we have a pretty strong economy -- unemployment pretty low, inflation near our goal -- it’s just managing a soft landing, keeping this expansion going for the next few years.”
So will the last employment report released this year (the December report comes out in early January) help markets to continue to form a base? The consensus for nonfarm payrolls today is for a 198k print, following the stronger-thanexpected 250k reading last month. Average hourly earnings are expected to rise +0.3% mom which should be enough to keep the annual reading at +3.1% yoy while the unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 3.7%. Our US economists are more or less in line with the consensus with a 200k forecast and also expect earnings to climb +0.3% mom, however that would be consistent with a small tick up in the annual rate to +3.17% and the fastest pace since April 2009. They also expect the current pace of job growth to push the unemployment rate down to 3.6% which would be the lowest since December 1969.
Going into that, yesterday’s ADP employment change report for November was a tad disappointing at 179k (vs. 195k expected) while more interestingly the recent tick up in initial jobless claims held with the print coming in at 231k. The four-week moving average is now 228k and the highest since April having gotten as low as 206k in September. So the climb, while not yet at concerning levels, is certainly notable and worth watching now on a week to week basis. As for the other interesting data points yesterday, the October trade deficit was confirmed as reaching a new cyclical wide. The ISM non-manufacturing print for November was a relative positive after coming in at 60.7, up 0.4pts from October and ahead of expectations for a decline to 59.0. Worth noting is that the three-month moving average of non-manufacturing ISM is now the highest on record which is a fairly reliable lead indicator for private nonfarm payrolls. US durable goods orders for October were revised slightly higher to -4.3% mom from -4.4%, though the core measures stayed at 0.0% mom. Factory orders declined -2.1% mom, though both were nevertheless higher year-on-year.
As for the day ahead, the aforementioned November employment in the US will no doubt be front and centre, however, prior to that, we’ve October industrial production prints in Germany and France, along with Q3 labour costs in the former, and the final Q3 GDP revisions for the Euro Area (no change from +0.2% qoq second reading expected). We’ll also get the monthly inflation reporting for November in the UK. Also due out in the US is October wholesale inventories and trade sales, the preliminary December University of Michigan survey and October consumer credit. November foreign reserves data in China is also expected out at some point. Away from that the OPEC/OPEC+ meeting moves into the final day while the ECB’s Coeure and Fed’s Brainard are scheduled to speak. Today is also the day that Germany’s ruling CDU party elects a new chair to succeed Merkel. Our FX strategists noted yesterday that according to polls, the result should be a close call between general secretary Annegret Kramp-Karranbauer (AKK) and Friedrich Merz. Broadly speaking, AKK stands for a continuation of the Merkel-era strategy of positioning the CDU at the centre of the political spectrum, whereas Merz stands for a sharpening of the party's traditional profile as a centre-right party. Last night our German economics team put out a piece explaining the event and suggesting that Merz would be good for the DAX and AKK good for the Euro.

Who would have thought - as recently as two days ago - that a Trump presidency is the best thing for global risk? Certainly not Wall Street experts, all of whom warned of drops as big as 5% should Trump be elected.
And yet, the global repricing of inflation expectations continues at a feverish pace in the aftermath of the Trump victory, leading to another surge in US equity futures, up 15 points or 0.7% to 2175 at last check, with Asian and European stock market all jumping (Nikkei was up a whopping 6.7% after losing 4.6% the day before) after the initial shock of Donald Trump’s election victory gave way to optimism that his plans for fiscal stimulus will provide a boost to the global economy. Commodity metals soared with copper surging 4.5% to $5,658.50 a metric ton, the biggest gain since May 2013, while zinc advanced 2.1% and nickel added 2%. Gold climbed on speculation whether the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates in December.
The euphoria is largely due to the market's hopes of a burst in fiscal stimulus, aka much more debt, which while self-defeating in the long run, is providing a major boost to risk assets for the short-run, as it puts QE potentially back in the picture: after all _someone will be needed to monetize the US budget deficit_which is expected to once again soar under president Trump.
As Citi strategists note today, "The outcome of the U.S. election leaves the policy and macroeconomic outlook in the U.S. and globally with major uncertainties. Acknowledging these major uncertainties, we expect the new administration to pursue some deregulation, fiscal expansion, and reassess the costs and benefits of free trade. The combination of policies could be inflationary, quicken the path of Fed hikes and strengthen the dollar."
Indeed, as Bloomberg puts it, Donald Trump’s unlikely rise to power is providing a shot in the arm for global financial markets, with stocks and commodities rallying on optimism that his fiscal-stimulus plans will boost the global economy. European equities joined a global rally as they headed for their biggest four-day jump since July. Banks surged on prospects of lighter regulation for their U.S. operations and higher lending rates, and miners gained on increased metals prices. Copper rose the most in more than three years on Trump’s intention to expand infrastructure spending. Currencies of most commodity-producing nations advanced, while Bloomberg’s dollar index reversed losses. Government bonds in Europe and Asia slid as the inflation outlook lifted, while corporate-debt sales resumed in Europe as markets stabilized.

Those who saw S&P futures trade limit down on Wednesday morning will likely be stunned by the amazing U-turn in global markets since the shock win for Trump triggered a knee-jerk selloff in equities and rush into haven assets. European shares Wednesday staged their biggest turnaround since March as investors took comfort in his acceptance speech. They are starting to look beyond Trump’s campaign rhetoric, focusing instead on his promises to cut taxes and at least double Hilary Clinton’s estimated $275 billion, five-year plan for roads, airports and bridges.
The only asset conspicuously not participating in the global ramp was oil, which was little changed after three days of gains. The IEA said prices may retreat amid “relentless global supply growth” unless the OPEC enacts significant output cuts. West Texas Intermediate fell less than 0.1 percent to $45.25 a barrel and Brent was 0.8 percent higher at $46.71.
“It’s a relief rally of the certainty of the outcome of the election and after the conciliatory tone that Trump took,” said Nick Skiming, a fund manager at Jersey, Channel Islands-based Ashburton Ltd. His firm oversees $10 billion. “We know from Trump’s policies that he wants to reduce taxes and embark on fiscal spending and if he gets those approved, that will be expansionary for the U.S. economy in the short term.”
Europe's Stoxx 600 Index gained 1% as of 10:55 a.m. London time, with lenders reaching their highest levels since March. UBS Group AG soared 7.6%, set for its biggest surge since 2012. Among Trump’s policies were a pledge to repeal the Dodd-Frank Act’s strict capital requirements on banks and a proposed temporary moratorium on new financial regulations. Gains in commodities helped send a gauge of miners to its highest since June. French media company Vivendi SA jumped 10 percent, and Germany’s Siemens AG rose 4.7 percent after they posted profit that beat projections.
S&P 500 Index futures climbed 0.7 percent, indicating U.S. equities will extend their advance into a fourth day. Billionaire Carl Icahn said he left President-elect Trump’s victory party to bet about $1 billion on U.S. equities. The investor said that the economy still faces challenges but Trump will be “a positive, not a negative” for the country.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed 2.7 percent, the most since March. Japan’s Topix index jumped 5.8 percent, after sinking 4.6 percent in the last session, and Australia’s benchmark rallied by the most in five years. In Hong Kong, Jiangxi Copper Co., China’s second-largest producer by output, rose 14 percent. Russian aluminum maker United Co. Rusal Plc jumped by the most on record.
While the focus will remain on the unfolding political landscape, investors may also look to data on initial jobless claims and earnings from companies including Macy’s Inc. and Ralph Lauren Corp. for indications of the health of the world’s biggest economy.
But while stocks soared, it was a different story in bond markets: European debt fell after about $337 billion was wiped off bond markets on Wednesday as Trump’s election sparked concern that his plan to boost economic growth will lead to a surge in inflation. The yield on German 10-year bonds climbed seven basis points to to 0.27 percent, while that on similar-maturity U.K. gilts added seven basis points to 1.33 percent. Ten-year U.S. Treasury yields rose two basis points to 2.07 percent. The U.S. is selling $15 billion of 30-year Treasuries at an auction on Thursday. Bonds of that maturity led Wednesday’s selloff, with yields climbing 23 basis points.
“Trumpeconomics implies a likely faster pace of Fed rate hikes next year,” said Robert Rennie, head of financial markets strategy at Westpac Banking Corp. in Sydney. “It is clear that this wave of populist vote has reflected, in part, dislike of tight fiscal, easy monetary policy. If we are now seeing a shift in the U.S., then that means markets will have to reprice this.”
Odds for a Fed interest-rate hike in December climbed to 88 percent, based on U.S. overnight indexed swaps that trade 24 hours a day, after plunging below 50 percent while the outcome of the election unfolded. San Francisco Fed President John Williams said Wednesday that the argument for gradual interest-rate increases “still makes sense to me.”
Bulletin Headline Summary from RanSquawk

• European equities follow suit from their US and Asian counterparts to trade higher across the board with financials and materials leading the way
• The US 10yr has tipped 2%, and this has added fresh fuel to the USD/JPY rise which has now pushed through 106.00
• Looking ahead, highlights include US weekly jobless data as well as comments from Fed's Williams and Bullard, ECB's Constancio and Mersch and BoE's Haldane

Market Snapshot

• S&P500 futures up 0.7% to 2175
• Stoxx 600 up 1.1% to 344
• FTSE 100 up 1% to 6980
• DAX up 1.1% to 10764
• German 10Yr yield up 5bps to 0.25%
• Italian 10Yr yield up 4bps to 1.79%
• Spanish 10Yr yield up 3bps to 1.31%
• S&PGSCI Index up 0.9% to 359.9
• MSCI Asia Pacific up 2.7% to 137
• Nikkei 225 up 6.7% to 17344
• Hang Seng up 1.9% to 22839
• Shanghai Composite up 1.4% to 3171
• S&P/ASX 200 up 3.3% to 5329
• US 10-yr yield down 1bp to 2.04%
• Dollar Index up 0.4% to 98.9
• WTI Crude futures down 0.4% to $45.11
• Brent Futures up 0.3% to $46.51
• Gold spot up 0.2% to $1,280
• Silver spot up 1.3% to $18.72

Global Headline News

• Trump Starts New Political Era as Republicans Claim Mandate: Ryan says Republican unity will drive new agenda for nation
• Investors Lose $337b as Bonds Whipsawed on Trump Victory: Trump victory means bigger chance of Fed hike, Westpac says
• Stock Forecasters No Better Than Pollsters in Figuring Out Trump: rather than plunge, American equities stage an epic turnaround
• Iranian Nuclear Deal Faces New Twist With Trump Win
• Oil Output Surge Piles Pressure on OPEC as IEA Warns on Price: market faces ‘relentless’ supply growth as non-OPEC recovers
• AstraZeneca Sales Miss Estimates on Slower Growth in New Drugs: without tax benefit, profit was 96 cents vs. 98-cent estimate
• Vivendi Soars After Profit Beats Estimates With Music Strength: adjusted net income almost doubled in 3Q
• Blackstone, KKR Said to Ready Bid Financing for Valeant’s iNova: sale may fetch about A$1b, according to people familiar
• Goldman Sachs Names 84 New Partners, Most Since 2010 Class: traders make up largest group, followed by investment bankers
• VW Accused of Concealing Emissions Cheating in Audi Gas Cars: Owners of 100,000 Audi vehicles file class-action lawsuit

Looking at regional markets, we start in Asia where the fallout from the 2016 Presidential Election results is still dictating the state of play in markets. Asian indices traded higher across the board benefiting from the bullish close on wall Street with the three majors closing the session at highs and in the Dow's case ATH's. The Nikkei 225 (+6.7%) lead the way higher, with financials outperforming as Donald Trump is seen as more friendly to the banking sector, given his previous commentary and his record of amassing a large property portfolio through debt. The Republican 'clean sweep' of House, Senate and President has also reassured global stock markets. Japanese Finance Minister Aso said he wants to avoid FX intervention and the government will not intervene in FX except in exceptional cases. PBoC set the CNY reference at 6.7885 (Prey. 6.7832) — the weakest setting since 2010 and injected CNY 80bIn in 7y and 14y reverse repos.
Asian Top News - Asian Shares Jump With Metals as Trump Reassessed; Kiwi Weakens: Stock gains led by raw-materials producers as copper jumps - McDermott Says RBNZ Worried About Kiwi, Will Cut Rates If Needed: “We have not reached the floor” on rates, assistant governor says - Mr. Yen Says Trump Victory Doesn’t Change Currency-Market Trend: Yen may strengthen to 90 per dollar within six months of Donald Trump’s election, Eisuke Sakakibara says - Tata Consultancy Says Ishaat Hussain Nominated As Chairman: Hussain shall hold office until new chairman is appointed - Modi May Reap $45 Billion Budget Boost With Anti-Graft Cash Ban: Edelweiss Securities predicts crack down on high-value currency notes will uncover 3t rupees in black money - Singapore Names Jho Low Person of Interest in 1MDB-Linked Probe: Country’s investigation into Low started in 2015 - Hyundai Merchant, Korea Line Submit Final Hanjin Asset Bids: preferred bidder to be picked on Nov. 14, court says
Likewise in Europe, Donald Trump continues to dictate price action across asset classes, with equities continuing to strengthen, as was seen in the second half of yesterday's trade. European bourses all trade higher this morning by over 1%, with material and financials leading the way higher benefitting from speculation regarding what a Trump presidency could entail, while utilities underperform in the wake of earnings reports from Engie and National Grid. Elsewhere, fixed income markets have seen European paper follow their US counterparts, with Bunds retaking the 161.00 handle to the upside as markets calm in the wake of yesterday's volatility. Analysts at Informa note that Spanish/Italian 10 year yields have climbed 3-4bps as the Renzi/EU row continues to escalate, amidst more animosity vs EC in campaigning ahead of the Dec 4 referendum.
Top European News

• Trump Victory Hands U.K.’s May Security Leverage in Brexit Talks: British military capability may be in more demand in Europe
• Deutsche Bank Sees Mideast Deal Revival After ‘Subdued’ 2016: regional head says low oil price will drive consolidation
• Siemens Plans to Spin Off Health Unit as CEO Sharpens Focus: company has announced no timeline or scope for spinoff
• Zurich Insurance 3Q Profit Soars on Lower Claims: lack of major natural disasters helps insurer boost earnings
• Deutsche Telekom Earnings Rise as U.S. Business Wins Users: German carrier betting on U.S. to offset slower European sales
• Aegon Jumps as Investments Help It Return to Quarterly Profit: stock rises most in more than 7 years
• Continental Sees Car-Industry Currency Turmoil on Trump Election: CFO predicts peso, yen shifts on U.S. trade-policy questions
• Electrolux to Buy South African Water-Heater Producer Kwikot: transaction has enterprise value of $237 million
• K+S Narrows 2016 Earnings Target Range on Output Concerns: sees Ebitda of up to EU560m
• Puma Raises Outlook as Rihanna, Celebrity Tie-Ups Help Sales: sees Ebit in upper part of EU115m-EU125m range
• Arkema’s Raises Full-Year Earnings Outlook On Boost From Bostik: sees synergies from acquisition of Den Braven
• Generali 9M Profit Falls on Lower Investment Income: 9M profit fell 5.9% as low interest rates and volatile equity markets hurt investment gains

In commodities, industrial metals rose as Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said Trump’s promise to revive American infrastructure means commodities used to build everything from airports to bridges will benefit under his presidency. Copper surged 4.5 percent to $5,658.50 a metric ton, the biggest gain since May 2013, while zinc advanced 2.1 percent and nickel added 2 percent. Gold climbed as traders speculated on whether the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates when policy makers meet next month. Bullion rose 0.2 percent to $1,279.85 an ounce and silver gained 1.4 percent. Oil was little changed after three days of gains. The International Energy Agency said prices may retreat amid “relentless global supply growth” unless the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries enacts significant output cuts. West Texas Intermediate fell less than 0.1 percent to $45.25 a barrel and Brent was 0.8 percent higher at $46.71.
In currencies, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index reversed losses to advance 0.3 percent, after rallying 1.4 percent on Wednesday. Currencies of commodity-producing nations were the best performers in foreign-exchange markets, with Australia’s dollar surging 1.3 percent and Norway’s krone appreciating 0.6 percent. Russia’s ruble strengthened 0.5 percent, leading gains among currencies in developing economies as investors speculated Trump will mend ties with Moscow. That could improve the outlook for loosening sanctions imposed after Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014. “A Trump presidency is dollar bullish because Trump’s economic policies are inflationary and will force the Fed to raise the Funds rate at a faster pace than otherwise,” said Elias Haddad, a senior currency strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia. Mexico’s peso was 0.1 percent weaker after sinking 7.7 percent on Wednesday. Trump has pledged to renegotiate the North American Free Trade Agreement and curb illegal immigration by building a wall along the U.S.’s southern border. The yuan slipped to a six-year low amid concern Chinese exports will also suffer. Trump has called China a “grand master” at currency manipulation and has threatened tariffs of up to 45 percent on imports from the Asian nation, a step that Commonwealth Bank of Australia estimated would cut Chinese shipments to the the U.S. by 25 percent in the first year.
On today's calendar, one event worth highlighting though and which could be interesting now is the scheduled 30y Treasury auction this evening. In the midst of the hugely volatile moves yesterday, the 10y auction was reported as the weakest, based on the bid to cover ratio of 2.22, since March 2009. So it’ll be interesting to see how much demand there is for longer dated debt today. Away from that, the data docket today contains France wage data and IP this morning followed by initial jobless claims and the October Monthly Budget Statement across the pond this afternoon. The Fed’s Bullard and Lacker will also speak today.
US Event Calendar

• 8:30am: Initial Jobless Claims, Nov. 5, est. 260k (prior 265k)
• 9:15am: Fed’s Bullard speaks in St. Louis
• 9:45am: Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, Nov. 6 (prior 44.6)
• 10am: Freddie Mac mortgage rates
• 10:30am: EIA natural-gas storage change
• 12:45pm: Fed’s Lacker Speaks in Richmond
• 2pm: Monthly Budget Statement y/y, Oct., est. -$70b (prior - $136.6b)

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
To expand further on what I was discussing in yesterday's EMR after Trump and the Republican's clean electoral sweep, I must say that this is the most positive I've felt on the medium-term prospects for US growth for perhaps a decade. As a 'secular stagnationist' this is as much a relative and a nominal GDP story as it is an absolute and real GDP view but at least we'll likely to see a change in policy. Policy should now be skewed towards reflation at a fiscal level. However as a caveat the outcome is probably also potentially dangerous for growth as a Trump presidency has more risk of going spectacularly wrong than most others given his inconsistent approach to policy in the lead up to the election and his total lack of political experience. There was a great quote on Bloomberg last night from Sarah Binder - a political science professor at George Washington University - who said that "In every conversation I have about a President Trump there is an asterisk of unpredictability". This certainly rings true.
There are still some doubts as to whether he has his party fully behind him although the clean sweep may mean Republicans are happy to loosen the purse strings now they are in full control (and can get the credit) regardless of any doubts over Trump. The other problem with Trump are his international views (migration, trade) and we stand by our September long-term study view that Globalisation is going to be in full retreat over the years ahead which has longer-term global growth and stability risks. The link to "An Ever Changing World" where we articulated our view of the turn in the super cycle meaning higher yields, higher inflation, more fiscal spending and less globalisation is at the end of today's piece. Back to Trump, he also has non-economic policies that could be divisive if he follows through on his campaign rhetoric. So a leap into the unknown in some respects.
However if your view has been that constant monetary easing without support from fiscal policy was becoming counterproductive at a global level, then you have to take Trump and the Republicans seriously whatever your view(s) on him/them. I would stress that Trump will likely need the Fed over the years ahead though and he's not been their biggest fan. A persistent unfunded fiscal deficit could push yields up to levels that the debt ladened global economy would find overly negative. For expansionary fiscal policy to work in a world of heavy debt I do think you need a central bank willing or forced to buy government bonds. If not what's the incentive for the bond market to buy into an unfunded reflation boost. So we could see a strange situation in 2017 where the US is pursuing big expansionary fiscal policy but with no QE whereas Europe will continue to do big QE but without notable fiscal expansion. So yesterday's 20.2bp sell-off in 10 year Treasuries (a stunning 34.6bps from the Asian session lows) is one to watch and could be something the Republican's need to bare in mind if they go for broke on stimulus. What the Fed looks like in 18 months is also a big question. The Republicans and Trump have been very keen to clip their wings and the spectre of them becoming less independent - perhaps after Yellen's term ends in 2018 - must surely be a possibility.
Anyway we are writing our 2017 outlook at the moment and obviously this result is making us stress test our views for the next year or so. Any thoughts welcome from our readers on what this victory means. We reserve the right to change our mind on things by the time the outlook is out but this certainly shakes things up for 2017!
We discussed yesterday that we thought the result would initially bring risk-off followed by a reversal as the positive fiscal prospects would come into view. I'm not sure we thought such a turnaround would happen in hours rather than days or weeks but the low/high range yesterday was astonishing for a number of assets. Trump's conciliatory acceptance speech was probably the main catalyst. Let’s start with the aforementioned move for Treasuries where the high-to-low move was actually an incredible 37.4bps at the 10y and which took the yield back above 2% (closing at 2.057%) for the first time since January. That daily range is the highest since August 2011 although if we look at the magnitude of the selloff in percentage terms (10.91%) then it is actually the second highest with data going back to 1966. In another eye-watering stat, yesterday’s high to low range in basis points was 20bps more than the daily high-to-low range for the whole of the month of August. Volatility at its finest.
Staying with rates, the Treasury curve steepened aggressively with the 2y30y spread widening 19.5bps to 195bps with that one day move the biggest since 2011. The probability of a December Fed rate hike at one stage plummeted below 50% during Asia time before bouncing back and making an almost complete u-turn to close at 82%. In Europe the moves for sovereign bond markets, while still weaker, were slightly less spectacular. 10y Bund yields hit an intraday low of 0.090% in the early showing before closing at their highs in yield at around 0.200%. That was a 1.5bp move higher on the day, but a high-to-low range of 11bps.
Over in equity markets the incredible turnaround was more evident in the US futures market given Trump fears peaked early in the Asia session. Dow futures swung in a 1,172 point range after initially plummeting 867 points before then swinging to a 305 point gain. That’s the equivalent of a 6.82% high to low range. In the cash market the Dow closed up +1.40% after being down as much as half a percent initially. The high-to-low was 2.18%. The S&P 500 closed +1.11% with a high-to-low of 2.10% but this was -5% and limit down in Asian trading. Sector wise, the prospect of looser regulation meant financials (+4.07%) and healthcare (+3.43%) were the big outperformers. In fact, the Nasdaq Biotech index rallied +8.98% for its biggest once day gain since 2008. There’s going to be huge focus on the healthcare sector now given Trump’s vocal opposition of Obamacare and our US equity strategists are calling for +20% upside for the sector. Meanwhile the VIX tumbled just over 23% and back below 15, with a high-to-low range of 33%. Over in Europe the Stoxx 600 closed +1.46%, again however with a remarkable 3.91% range.
Credit was much the same. In the US CDX IG finished 1.3bps tighter on the day but in a near 6bp range. HY was even more impressive with the CDX HY spread 5bps tighter by the close but the high-to-low a spectacular 28bps. In Europe indices ended little changed with Main swinging in a 5bps range Xover swinging in a 20bp range.
The other markets to highlight were commodities and currencies. Gold, having smashed through $1300/oz and trading as high as +4.73% early on, closed just +0.18% but with a range of 5.45%. WTI Oil finished +0.64% but in Dollar terms swung in a $3/bbl range. Finally in currency markets the standout was the Mexican Peso which at one stage was -13.37% weaker, before paring losses to ‘just’ -8.30%. The Swiss Franc finished -0.67% weaker with a range of a little over 3% while the Yen was -0.48% on the day in a range nearing 5%.
So if that hasn’t caused your eyes to bulge just yet, then this morning we’re seeing a similar rebound across markets in Asia. The Nikkei (+5.86%) has more than recovered Wednesday’s losses while the Hang Seng (+1.92%), Shanghai Comp (+1.14%), Kospi (+1.70%) and ASX (+2.81%) have all surged back. Credit markets have made a similar turnaround while US equity index futures are little changed in the early going. In commodity markets the surge in metals has stood out with Copper, Zinc and Aluminium up between 3% and 5%. Iron ore is also above $70/tn for the first time since April. Needless to say miners have had a very strong morning. The infrastructure story is kicking in. Elsewhere the San Francisco Fed’s Williams opined overnight that a gradual rate of rate increases still makes sense, a view that is unchanged post election.
Meanwhile, away from the market moves, the remaining newsflow has been largely consigned to watching the political response globally. With trade negotiations at the forefront of debate now, Canada Ambassador David MacNaughton said that Canada is willing to entertain reopening the NAFTA agreement to potential changes should the President-elect want to. The Ambassador also suggested that he expects bilateral trade between the two countries to remain strong. Meanwhile Mexico President Enrique Pena Nieto said that ‘this election opens a new chapter in relations between Mexico and the US that will imply a change, a challenge but also a big opportunity’.
Unsurprisingly though it was the global populist movements that rejoiced in Trump’s victory. In France the leader of the right-wing National Front party, Marine Le Pen, said that ‘French people who hold this freedom so dearly will find an extra reason to break with a system that shackles them’. The founder of the populist 5SM in Italy also highlighted similarities between the result and movements in Italy. Austrian Freedom Party leader Heinz-Christian Strache was similarly jubilant while Russia President Putin said that ‘Russia is ready and wants to restore fully fledged relations with the US’ and that ‘this would serve the interests of the Russian and American peoples, as well as positively impacting the general climate in international affairs’.
Wrapping up yesterday, it would be an understatement to say that the data played second fiddle yesterday but for completeness, in the US we learned that wholesale inventories rose a slightly less than expected +0.1% mom (vs.+0.2% expected) in September. Wholesale trade sales also rose less than expected (+0.2% mom vs. +0.5% expected) while the Atlanta Fed held their Q4 GDP forecast at 3.1% following that data. In Europe the Bank of France business sentiment reading for October was unchanged at 99. Finally in the UK the trade balance widened further in September. The European Commission also released their latest economic forecasts, cutting Euro area growth expectations to 1.5% in 2017 from the earlier 1.8% forecast.
So while today’s diary does contain some economic reports, the likelihood is that markets will continue to respond to the Election result. One event worth highlighting though and which could be interesting now is the scheduled 30y Treasury auction this evening. In the midst of the hugely volatile moves yesterday, the 10y auction was reported as the weakest, based on the bid to cover ratio of 2.22, since March 2009. So it’ll be interesting to see how much demand there is for longer dated debt today. Away from that, the data docket today contains France wage data and IP this morning followed by initial jobless claims and the October Monthly Budget Statement across the pond this afternoon. The Fed’s Bullard and Lacker will also speak today.
from http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-11-10/everything-soaring-trump-makes-buying-stuff-great-again
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This is an automatic summary, original reduced by 67%.

Declines in the British pound to dollar exchange rate have faded as market confidence rapidly improves but have some warn we are likely to see notable declines ahead. The market continues to find some stability over the 1.30 as gauges of volatility on global markets continue to settle.
Should the Conservative party leadership campaigners suggest a desire to maintain single market access, however a spurious assumption, Stretch believes this may encourage a spike back towards 1.3780.
"With the UK voting in favour of leaving the European Union, the GBP's outlook appears to be subject to heightened uncertainty. We stressed previously that in the unexpected case of a Brexit, majors such as GBP/USD should approach levels closer to 1.30 and EUGBP around 0.85," says a strategy note released by Credit Agricole.
"It will be months or even quarters before we have sufficient data to make an assessment of how hard UK activity has been hit by rising uncertainty and for now, we stick with our pre-referendum call that markets are likely to assume a 'typical' UK recession, with the shock to confidence causing output to fall somewhere between 2% and 4%," says Adam Cole, head of G-10 FX strategy at RBC Capital Markets.
On Tuesday the pound has managed to rise against the euro and dollar as there is a growing sense that markets would be getting too pessimistic if they were to push GBP lower at this stage.
"The sun is out in London, the FTSE 100 is rallying and even the pound is moving higher this morning. You might almost think there had been no Brexit vote, and no downgrade of the UK economy overnight. The FTSE's unwillingness to stay below 6000 is remarkable, and while the damage to individual shares is still immense, some of that has been repaired today," says Chris Beauchamp at spread betting providers IG. Beauchamp believes a bounce was overdue but it doesn't change the short-term narrative of uncertainty and fear, nor the longer-term bear market in equities that has been ticking along for over a year now.

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