Betting Systems That WORK in 2020 [Our Profits Revealed]

The Case for Vanguard FTSE All-World UCITS ETF. Finding a blend between US and International Stocks. (Google Sheets Portfolio simulator included)

Some details about this particular ETF I'm going to write about:
ISIN: IE00BK5BQT80, Ticker: VWRA (LSE) or VWCE (XETRA)
This fund was launched on 23 July 2019 and its size already tops 1,018 mil. Euros. To put this in perspective, the Distributing version of this fund, ISIN: IE00B3RBWM25, was launched on 22 May 2012 and has its share class assets are valued at just 4,253 mil. Euros.
This clearly demonstrates that investors really liked the idea of an All-World accumulating fund. Vanguard finally launched it after 7 years from the distributing one, but it’s already gaining momentum.
The most popular UCITS ETF for EU investors is still iShares Core S&P 500 UCITS ETF (Acc), with a tremendous size of 31,772 mil. Euros, the rationale behind it being the outstanding performance of the S&P 500 in the last 12 years, and the statistics behind it telling us that since 1926, the S&P 500 brought investors an annualized return of 9.8%.
But things have not been always this great for the USA. For example, in the 1960s-1990s the US stock market brought the same return as other ex-USA stock markets. Moreover, even if it now has the biggest proportion of Total World Stock Market Capitalization of 56.4%, things were very different in the 1990s, where Japan had nearly 45% of the world stock market, while the US made up 29%. We all know what happened to investors that bet in 1990 on the Japanese stock market for being the most robust at the time.
Vanguard has a lovely section of Investing Research at https://investor.vanguard.com/investing/investment-research . This paper, “Global equity investing: The benefits of diversification and sizing your allocation”, was a really nice read on the topic.
In my country there’s a saying: “You never know where the rabbit might pop up from” (China? India? European resurgence? Who knows...). That means, even if the US has now a very diversified and dynamic economy, and half of the S&P 500 companies’ revenue comes from outside the US, and even when the correlation of stock market downturns has increased in the last decades, that still not make up to the fact that one investor is overexposed 100% to the USA, the US tax system, the USD currency fluctuations and only US companies, while ignoring (and missing the gains) of colossal companies such as Alibaba, Tencent, Nestle, Taiwan Semiconductor, Roche, Samsung, Novartis, Toyota…
I’m not all “doom and gloom” on the US economy for the next 40 years (this being the period of a buy-and-hold strategy for retiring with dignity with the help of the stock market), but why take the risk? This is why an All-World index fund weighted by market capitalization (where the USA is still represented with 56.4%) might well be the very best choice for most retail investors. This strategy reduces volatility, reduces the overexposure on the USA economy and currency and is the pinnacle of being diversified (the only free lunch in investing).
Over the last 120 years, global equities have provided an annualized real (i.e., after inflation) return of 5.2% versus 2.0% for bonds and 0.8% for bills. The mean inflation considered in this analysis is 2.8% (yes, including the Weimar inflation), so the total return of world stocks is at 8% annually. This includes the Russian stock market going to zero in 1917 (Thanks, Lenin), and the Chinese one going to zero in 1949 (Thanks, Mao). Source: https://www.credit-suisse.com/about-us-news/en/articles/media-releases/credit-suisse-global-investment-returns-yearbook-2020-202002.html
I might be wrong. The USA might still be the Word’s capitalist powerhouse that will continue to bring almost 10% annualized return. But I am more comfortable going with an All-World fund that might bring 7-8%, but won’t be a wild ride solely on the US.
Of course, you can still create a Portfolio that has a blend between USA and World Stocks, manipulating the exposure on US stocks to a certain percentage, anywhere between 56.4% and 100%. For example, Jack Bogle said in a 2017 interview that he wouldn’t allocate more than 20% of ex-US stocks to his portfolio. I made an Excel that calculates just that, what is your preferred proportion of US exposure with a blend of VWCE and SXR8 (both trading on XETRA) with a Yahoo Finance embedded API. I’ll post it here. The only variables you need to change are the actual proportion of US stock by market cap (Green cell - Source included) and your preferred proportion (Yellow cells) and your Portfolio value (Blue cell). Down there there is and “acual US exposure” based on the units you hold from both SXR8 and VWCE.
Link here: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1aFDDPplfxHTQbd_D7DpG2lA3AQPxgsLj/view?usp=sharing
As a side-note, the allocation in bonds depends on each and every investor, depending on how strong your stomach and how risk-averse you are. I might transfer my positions from stock ETFs to the iShares Core Global Aggregate Bond UCITS ETF EUR Hedged (Acc) (ISIN: IE00BDBRDM35) as I approach retirement, but that is a topic of the distant future.
Some may point out that replicating an All-World portfolio might be done as well with iShares Core MSCI World UCITS ETF USD (Acc) (ISIN: IE00B4L5Y983) and iShares Core MSCI Emerging Markets IMI UCITS ETF (Acc) (ISIN: IE00BKM4GZ66 ) with a 88%-12% proportion, and a lower average TER (0.20% / 0.18% vs. VWCE’s 0.22%). The only problem is that you need to rebalance accordingly as Emerging Markets will (or will not) have a greater say in the global market capitalization. And, honestly, a difference of 3-4 euros on each 1000 euro in TER is just noise for choosing a fund that rebalances automatically.
In summary, I believe that Vanguard FTSE All-World UCITS ETF (USD) Accumulating will be a very successful ETF in the future and might well be the only ETF you need for riding the All-World stock market until retirement. For example, I am now investing with the help of the Excel above as such that I maintain for now a 80% US allocation, but for my girlfriend I’ve helped her set a buy-and-hold strategy for VWCE only.
Tell me what do you think about it. :)
submitted by DragonSlayer314159 to eupersonalfinance [link] [comments]

S&P 1700 within 6 Months

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This is a new post after some interest in a comment why I believed the S&P is going to 1700.
Update 3: I am going to limit my answers in the comments guys; as the post becomes more popular it is becoming more diluted with snark etc. I don't expect anyone to follow my opinions; I just want to share one aspect of why I am making the trades I am. I maybe wrong. Random walk and all that..
Original Disclaimer: This is based on historical precedence and we are in unprecedented times but, with history as our guide a strong argument can be made for the S&P to decline to a level that is currently inconceivable. I have disclosed all my positions near the bottom.
Update 1: Slightly long; happy to be challenged in the comments, it is late in the UK (2am) so may tidy it up and add more references and charts tomorrow. Update 2: Have expanded the post to answer as many comments and requests for references wherever possible and tagged in the requestors.

Intro: Are we in a recession?

If you believe so, or that we are heading into a recession then there are four things needed to support a genuine rally out of a recession
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We are missing 2 out of those 4 criteria; the overwhelming monetary and fiscal policy (world-records) are compensating for lack of positive indicators and volatile and bullish pricing.

What do you mean by pricing?

It can be argued that the current price of stocks is not discounting for the acute and likely chronic harm to consumer sentiment and spending power. For example; the UK clothing retailer Next Group closed their bricks and mortar stores (share price increased 4%) then they cancelled all online shopping (share price increased 3%) and finally they cancelled all orders with their supply chain (shares leapt 12.8% during the rally.) There is the massive amount of second, third and fourth order effects that this one company does to the UK economy (and Turkish factories). Suppliers, shipping, design, marketing etc all cancelled and the staff furloughed.
This is one example but the indexes are currently full of similar examples and some analysts are ringing the alarm bells.
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Lazard Asset Management are concerned that the pandemic “will persist longer than many investors suspect and that the economic damage will be deeper and potentially longer-lasting”.
Reddit is quick to mention that stonks only go up but there is some truth to that sentiment at present since any negative factors are dismissed as being priced in and all positive factors are heralded as a cause for stocks to rally. If priced in was accurate then we would not see record-beating market rallies back to back. 10% volatility swings over 48 hours is the very definition of not priced in.
There is evidence to suggest that, well, the bullish sentiment is wrong and mainly because it is retail investors being taken for a ride whilst funds re-balance and offload.
Retail traders "buying the dips" is normally a contrarian signal, meaning that it's time to sell. This section is for u/lntoIerant in response to a comment.

Edit to answer some comments about this portion thus far.

Do retail investors move the market?
Are retail investors buying in greater volumes?
Are retail investors dumb money?
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What does this have to do with the S&P dividend and the EPS?

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Major indexes are comprised of stocks that pay handsome dividends; normally 2% yield a year. The companies have reached their limit of growth (HSBC haven't discovered 5 million new customers and Shell are not finding new fossil fuels) so investors hold the stock for income-seeking reasons.
The FTSE 100 was priced in to generate £89 billion in dividends for 2019 and £90 billion+ in 2020. That has largely collapsed.
The only companies that pay dividends are those taking on debt to do so like Shell. And they have; a 10Bn credit line to maintain dividends. The Bank of Englandhad to slap 5 UK banks from issuing dividends at this time. That means that their primary valuations as income-generating stocks are questionable...
...especially since the dividends are not expected to return to the 2020 levels for another 10 years now. Edit to add: This portion is taken from the market report by BNY Mellon. You can see the chart here. The analyst is John Velis of BNY. Thanks to u/flash_aaaah_ahhhhh for prompting me.
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“By 2021, the market expects dividends per share for the S&P 500 to be down to under $38 per share (a staggering 41 per cent drop from recent highs of approximately $63 per share) and then to start slowly rising again. Going out 10 years to 2030, the expectation is that dividends will just about recover to pre-Covid-19 levels.”
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Main body: Onto the S&P

In 2021 the market expects the dividends per share for the S&P to be reduced to $38 per share. That is priced in and common knowledge.
That is a 41% drop from the recent highs of $63 a share and seems alarming for income seeking investors since we are not expected to recover to those prices for 8-10 years. Source.
But DataTrek have noted that we are still currently trading at 21X the trailing 10 year earnings of $122 a share.
Dividends per share normally don't fall as far as earnings per share. But they are inverted at present.
For the S&P to be trading at 2,650 level (or even higher) it means the market does not believe the pandemic or recession will have any long-term damage. That puts us squarely at odds with items 3 and 4 in our list of factors needed to exit a bear market.

Talk to me about 2008!

Thanks to u/mister_woody for asking for more data.
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In other recessions, including 2008, the dividend price per share drops approximately 12-15% but the earnings per share drop by considerably more; as much as 85%.
That means that in 2008 financial crisis and subsequent bear market; the dividends per share dropped by a lower percentage amount than the total index value drop.
You can see that in this chart here.
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Right now, we have the reverse. Dividend share drop in this market is 41% (which is chilling) and market drop was approximately only 30% and rallying heavily back to the mid-20's only. That makes no financial sense unless the assets were being propped up by buyers...
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If the S&P follows the same playbook at 2008-9, then we would expect to see levels of around 1400 at the bottom but that seems extremely bearish expecting that this crisis is worse than 2008.
If previous indications hold true, then we would expect the S&P to drop by approximately 50-60%ish at the true bottom to reflect the 41% decrease in expected shares plus additional discounts and negative market sentiment.
In reality, we are probably likely to pull back to between 13X and 15X trailing average which puts the S&P between 1600 (low side) and 1800 (high side).
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You are putting a lot of faith in a re-run of the 2008 crisis

I am. No doubt about it. After October 2008, stocks fell for another four months, piling up 40% of losses before the recently ended bull market began in March 2009.

New market indicators

Since I wrote this post, the DJIA was up over 4% and closed down on the day.
Thank you to theTwitter feed of Jim Bianco for this: Since 1925 (95 yrs!), up more than 4% and closing down on the day has happened only one other time ... Oct 14, 2008 (Tsy Sec Hank Paulson forced the banks to take TARP money). The S&P 500 was up 3.5% at the high and closed down on the day. Since April 1982 (daily H,L,C began) has happened three other times...Oct 3, 08, Oct 14, 08, and Oct 17, 08.
This mkt continues to trade like Oct 08. It was six months and another 25% down before the low.
Bezinga are also playing up the 2008 similarities.

Why is bullish sentiment so wrong?

The negative reports are so wildly negative that the almost defy belief. We are dealing with insane numbers way beyond our traditional frame of reasoning. This is topped only by the insanity of the scale of quantitative easing. Less than a year ago, a small movement in the non-farm payrolls would lead to a 2-3% move in the markets; now we are hitting 700K jobs lost, a truly ugly number and the market rallies hugely. Future economic students will study this to try and understand what was happening.
In the space of weeks the majority of the Western economies have swung to being effectively state-sponsored, centralised economies and no one really knows how to unwind these positions.
It is impossible to reconcile being a bull with a centralised state economy and blue-chip stocks that refuse to pay dividends but the share price remains at the same levels as when they paid a 2% yield.
The UK forecast is for the deepest contraction since 1900. Business surveys have shown activity crashing faster in March than during the financial crisis. The Office for National Statistics has published experimental research on the impact of Covid-19 on the economy.
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With entire swaths of the economy having shut down “traditional forecasting methods become irrelevant”, warned Chiara Zangarelli, economist at investment bank Nomura.
Michelle Girard, economist at NatWest, said that while there was huge uncertainty about the precise magnitude of the contraction in gross domestic product in the second quarter, “there is little doubt that it will be off the scale”
That is not a bullish sentiment. It means markets are acting irrationally since fundamentals are being dismissed as priced-in. In reality; nothing is priced in.

Disclosure

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Spreads
Equities
Currency

Edit to add: So, your entire thesis is totally destroyed if companies keep paying dividends?

Yes.
In a nutshell.
But something else will be destroyed; the western taxpayer and future growth.
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CEO said 'every pound we receive [in rates relief] will be invested in ensuring Tesco is able to support British shoppers...' That is tax payers paying a subsidy to a free-market company for the ability to shop...and also...
Mr Lewis said that the needs of savers and pension funds also needed to be considered in the debate around dividends. “We’ve thought long and hard about our responsibilities here . . . we are in a strong position to pay out for the benefit of those people
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Edit to add: What about the FED and stimulus

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u/tauriel81 and u/aliveintucson325 and u/100PERCENTYOLO_VEQT
OK - to truly test my own assumptions; here is my argument AGAINST my position.
The Fed have not quite printed money as Reddit loves to meme. They have issued liquidity and central banks worldwide have allowed banks to relax their requirement to hold reserves of cash. That injects money into the business world by allowing lending and borrowing to continue. It also reduces theoretical risk since the models are back within tolerance.
When the time comes they will remove the credits gradually without causing hyperinflation. They do this by paying banks not to lend back into the system by holding a % of their assets at the Federal Reserve. So they pay the banks but the banks keep the deposit at the Fed and don't pass on the liquidity to potential borrowers..gradually and sustainably.
https://www.aier.org/article/powells-new-monetary-regime/
That means the borrower of the future (home purchasers, entreprenuers etc) will have very few credit facilities available so RIP to the long-term economic growth.
We also have unprecedented government support for citizens. The largest social security welfare plan since WW2, especially in Europe.
If you believe that the Western economies can weather this storm using the bridging devices by central banks then it pays to dollar cost average into the market and keep buying the dips as a retail investor.
Lots of buoyant news from European nations and China about the slowing pandemic is overwhelming the negative leading and lagging economic indicators about economic data.
If you believe the economy can return to normal within 36 months, then it pay to be bullish and invest.
If you are day-trading, swing-trading or short-term options trading then the overwhelming market moves are likely to crush people as the system flexes under lots of volatility. You are also likely prioritising the negative news and technical analysis in your filter bubble and de-prioritising the positive news particularly when that news is fiscal or monetary policy since those things are dry, boring and incomprehensible half the time.
So you miss Fed backstops critical bankingi and instead hear UK Prime Minister in intensive care.
If you want to know what is going on...
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Decide where you making a prediction. Plan your trade, trade your plan.
How do the FED take money back out of the economy?
They FED purchase the security initially to then sell it back to the asset-holder later. So the balance of credit-deficit merely swaps but by paying a small premium on the excesses that they hold, they can cushion the inflation or deflation of the currency.
So, they effectively give the bank liquidity and then remove that liquidity later by passing the asset back...but also provide a small premium to cushion the blow; 50% of the premium is then held on Federal Reserve books so that the market is not flooded with new money.
The FED previously reduced their balance sheet from $4.4 trillion to $3.7 trillion but it remains to be seen if they can unwind a position of this size.
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TL:DR

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submitted by DongusMcLongus to StockMarket [link] [comments]

[8 July 2020] it's your boy chimpu back with daily updates and insights

Updated to real time

Its your boy chimpu back with daily updates and insights

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Asian markets after in a very narrow belt, it's in the upper end of the range but is unable to go up like it has been going like in the past few days
India up 0.081%
Hangseng up 0.42%
Nikkei down 0.78%

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Europe indices are facing continued selling pressure from yesterday
Dax futures up 0.37%
CAC40 futures down 0.66%
FTSE futures down 0.69%

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Dow futures (25,825.5) +55.5(+0.22%)

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Global markets are in a bullish trend on the long term charts but we have been flat for the month mixed with some volatility, thus it gives a vibe that globally markets have transitioned from expansionary Market to contractionary marketing

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Nifty is currently on the upper end of yesterday's range,but down rn
NIFTY 50 : (10,808.40) +8.75 (0.081%)

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commodities

Crude oil futures : (40.43) -0.19(-0.47%)
Gold price : 50,075

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Coronavirus India data

Confirmed 742K (+22,252)
Recovered
Deaths 20,642 (+467)

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Coronavirus Global data

Confirmed 11.8M (+203K)
Recovered 6.42M
Deaths 544K
Cases are still present so a small request to y'all is to never compromise on safety and follow all the guidelines of the government

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Some interesting news

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Brazil's President Jair Bolsonaro tested positive for COVID-19
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/07/brazil-bolsonaro-tests-coronavirus-positive-200707161522468.html

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First of its Kind Project in the World Commissioned by Indian Railways in collaboration with BHEL
https://currentaffairs.gktoday.in/first-of-its-kind-project-in-the-world-commissioned-by-indian-railways-in-collaboration-with-bhel-072020331033.html

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Elon Musk hints his next Tesla gigafactory will be in ‘Asia outside China’
https://auto.hindustantimes.com/auto/news/elon-musk-hints-his-next-tesla-gigafactory-will-be-in-asia-outside-china-41594183070275.html

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Facebook pays ₹43,574 crore subscription amount to Jio Platforms
https://www.livemint.com/companies/news/facebook-pays-rs-43-574-crore-subscription-amount-to-jio-platforms-11594144969615.html

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FII and DII data

Yesterday, Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) bought shares of worth Rs 829.9 crore while domestic institutional investors (DIIs) sold shares of worth Rs 784.47 crore in the Indian equity market on July 7, provisional data available on the NSE showed.

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Results today

South Indian Bank
Automotive Stampings
Dish TV India
Kokuyo Camlin
Prozone Intu Properties
Radha Madhav Corporation
Swelect Energy Systems.

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Motabhai tracker (reliance industries) :

(1,814.20 INR) −9.25 (0.51%)

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Random tip for the day : "intelligent person is a person who learns from his own mistakes, a wise person is a person who learns from others mistakes"

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Yesterday's daily update and insights post: https://www.reddit.com/IndianStreetBets/comments/hmo00q/7_july_2020_its_your_boy_chimpu_back_with_daily/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share

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its your boy chimpu and will be back with more updates and insights

submitted by smallchimpu to IndianStreetBets [link] [comments]

Like a surfer dwarfed by a cresting wave, investors await a sea of earnings to wash over them this week

US Stocks Preview Ahead of the Open

Stocks Trending in the News

International Stock Markets Recap

submitted by QuantalyticsResearch to stocks [link] [comments]

[UK Politics] A giant post on the policies/promises the three main parties are campaigning for.

I hope this thread allows everyone in this thread contribute positively, with opinions and facts, and not be afraid to voice out something that this sub isn’t too favourable on. I have asked the mods to remove votes for comments to allow discussion and not get the hive mind to start upvoting/downvoting whenever something is set.
 
Warning this is going to be a big, meaty, thread entailing a lot of points, some not included because of how long it is – so if you have no patience to read, don’t voice your opinion just because you feel like contributing.
 
*I was trying to write a basic view in how our democracy works but I realised it was too complicated to add it as an addition to what is going to be a hefty piece already so I compromised. I might make a separate thread for how things work within our democracy but I think it might be too much for a sub dedicated to economic thought and theories.
 
Also do note my main sources are the parties individual manifestos and the BBC, I choose the BBC over other new sites because I think it takes the most unbiased position it can for all three parties. And in regards to some of the vagueness of policies, it's either because it's vague on purpose as I have found nothing concrete to add onto or they have not yet released information to the public. And yes, I didn't have the time to perfectly align positions that are similar or different in a side by side comparison, I will fix this in the coming days but for now I wanted to make sure everything important was included.
 
(Let me just say how annoying it is to go through countless pages of just bullshit, nothing but pandering and pointing fingers and rarely highlighting a god damn policy… 80-120 pages of this urghhhh)
 
To check the state of our economy click here.
 
Now without further ado, let’s begin.
Economy and Business
 
Labour Conservatives Liberal Democrats
Click above to see how much revenue they predict they’ll get from these changes. Click above to see how muc-oh? They don’t have any of the calculations for the public to see their policy effects? How strange, I wonder why... Well would you look at that, Lib Dems also put their costs up for all the pledges they made.
Bring the railways back into public ownership as franchises expire Increase the personal allowance to £12,500 and the higher rate to £50,000 by 2020 £100bn package of additional infrastructure investment
Regain control of energy supply networks through the alteration of operator license conditions, and transition to a publicly owned, decentralised energy system Keep pledge to ensure residents can veto high increases in council tax via a referendum Boost the economy with a major programme of capital investment
Replace water system with a network of regional publicly-owned water companies Improve HMRC's capabilities to clamp down on smuggling, including improving policing of borders as UK leaves EU Eliminate the deficit on day-to-day spending by 2020 to control the national debt, and then borrowing only to invest
Reverse the privatisation of Royal Mail "at the earliest opportunity" Reduce online VAT fraud Install hyperfast, fibre-optic broadband across the UK
Create at least one publicly-owned energy company in every region of the UK, with public control of the transmission and distribution grids. Spend more on research and development Additional funding to bring more private investment into renewable energy
Income tax rate 45p on earnings of £80,000 and above Ensure industry and businesses have access to reliable, cheap and clean power Raise employee national insurance threshold to the income tax threshold, while protecting low earners' ability to accrue pension and benefit entitlements
Income tax rate of 50p to be reintroduced on earnings above £123,000 Deliver road, rail, airports and broadband that businesses need. Ensure those with the highest incomes and wealth are making a fair contribution
Boost wages of 5.7m people earning less than minimum wage to £10 an hour by 2020 Increase the amount levied on firms employing migrant workers Reverse cuts to corporation tax from 20% to 17%, capital gains tax, marriage allowance
Create a National Transformation Fund that will invest £250bn over 10 years in upgrading the economy Listed companies will have to publish ratio of executive pay to broader UK workforce pay Raise inheritance tax threshold
Deliver universal superfast broadband availability by 2022 Maintain pledge to cut corporation tax to 17% by 2020 Action on corporate tax evasion and avoidance
A National Investment Bank as part of a plan to provide £250bn of lending power over the next decade for infrastructure Reform business rates, with more frequent revaluations Reforming corporation tax to develop a system that benefits the smallest
Scrap quarterly reporting for businesses with a turnover of under £85,000. Simplify the tax system Expand the activities of the state-owned British Business Bank
Corporation tax to increase: (21% 2018-2019)(24% 2019-2020)(26% 2020-2021) Regulate more efficiently, saving £9bn through the Red Tape Challenge and the One-In-Two-Out Rule Create a new 'start-up allowance' for new businesses
Corporation tax for profits below £300,000: (20% 2018-2019)(21% 2019-2021) *For some reason someone didn’t check their numbers and apparently 2019-2020 is unknown – which I assume it means that it applies to the second increase rate. Legislate for tougher regulation of tax advisory firms Review business rates
An end to zero-hours contracts to guarantee workers a "number of hours each week" Update the rules that govern mergers and takeovers Protect the science budget, including the recent £2bn increase, by raising it at least in line with inflation
‘Balancing the Books’ Ensure foreign ownership of companies controlling important infrastructure does not undermine British security or essential services Stamp out abuse of zero-hours contracts
Meet the OECD target of 3% of GDP spent on R&D by 2030 Legislate to make executive pay packages subject to strict annual votes by shareholders Encourage employers to promote employee ownership
Separation of investment and retail banking Consider a ban on companies which cold call people to encourage them to make false personal injury claims Champion the Northern Powerhouse and Midlands Engine initiatives
Breaking up RBS and create local public banks. Reduce insurance costs by "cracking down on exaggerated and fraudulent" whiplash claims. 40% of board members being women in FTSE 350 companies.
Introduce an Excessive Pay Levy on companies with staff on very high pay *The Excessive Pay Levy is a payroll tax, it basically charges employers for paying exceptionally high rates to individuals.
Switching from RPI to CPI indexation
Develop a version similar to the Australian system of binding arbitration and fines for persistent late-payers for the private and public sectors.
 
Worker Rights
 
Labour Conservatives Liberal Democrats
Introduce four extra public holidays each year to mark national patron saints' days Increase the National Living Wage to 60% of median earnings by 2020 Encourage the creation and widespread adoption of a ‘good employer’ kitemark covering areas such as paying a living wage, avoiding unpaid internships and using name-blind recruitment to make it easier for customers and investors to exercise choice and influence.
Maximum pay ratios of 20:1 to be rolled out in public sector Ensure people working in the 'gig' economy are properly protected Establish an independent review to consult on how to set a genuine Living Wage across all sectors. We will pay this Living Wage in all central government departments and their agencies, and encourage other public sector employers to do likewise.
Ban unpaid internships Change the law to ensure listed companies nominate a director from the workforce, create a formal employee advisory council or assign specific responsibility for employee representation to a designated non-executive director Extend transparency requirements on larger employers to include publishing the number of people paid less than the Living Wage and the ratio between top and median pay.
"Clamp down on bogus self-employment" and extend rights of employees to all workers - including shared parental pay Introduce a right for employees to request information relating to the future direction of the company. Modernise employment rights to make them fit for the age of the ‘gig’ economy, looking to build on the forthcoming Taylor Report
Guarantee trade unions a right to access workplaces Strengthen enforcement of employment rights, including by bringing together relevant enforcement agencies and scrapping employment tribunal fees.
End the public sector pay cap Strengthen worker participation in decision-making, including staff representation on remuneration committees, and the right for employees of a listed company to be represented on the board. We will change company law to permit a German-style two-tier board structure to include employees.
Repeal the Trade Union Act and roll out sectoral collective bargaining, whereby industries can negotiate agreement as a whole Reform fiduciary duty and company purpose rules to ensure that other considerations, such as employee welfare, environmental standards, community benefit and ethical practice can be fully included in decisions made by directors and fund managers.
Enforce all workers' rights to trade union representation at work Reduce the reporting requirement for disclosure of shareholdings to 1% in order to increase transparency over who owns stakes in the biggest companies.
Use public spending power to drive up standards, including only awarding public contracts to companies which recognise trade unions Require binding and public votes of board members on executive pay policies.
Give all workers equal rights from day one, whether part-time or full-time, temporary or permanent
Shifting the burden of proof, so the law assumes a worker is an employee unless the employer can prove otherwise.
 
Education
 
Labour Conservatives Liberal Democrats
Reintroduce maintenance grants for university students and abolish university tuition fees Pump an extra £4bn into schools by 2022 Invest nearly £7bn extra in education
A National Education Service for England to incorporate all forms of education Scrap free school lunches for infants in England, but offer free breakfasts across the primary years Triple the Early Years Pupil Premium to £1,000
Overhaul existing childcare system and extend 30 hours of free childcare to all two year olds No school will have its budget cut as a result of the new funding formula Oppose new selective schools and give local authorities control over admissions and new schools
Promise to reduce class sizes to "less than 30" for five, six, and seven-year-olds At least 100 new free schools a year Raise the quality of early years provision
Devolve responsibility for skills to city regions or devolved administrations End ban on grammar schools - conditions would include allowing pupils to join at "other ages as well as eleven" End the 1% cap on teachers' pay rises
Free school meals for all primary school children, paid for by removing the VAT exemption on private school fees. Ask universities and independent schools to help run state schools Guarantee all state school teachers are fully qualified or working towards qualified teacher status from January 2019
A specialist maths school to be opened in every major city in England due to new funding arrangements Introduce a professional development entitlement of 25 hours per year for all teachers, rising to 50 hours by 2025
Every 11-year-old expected to know their times tables off by heart Tackle unnecessary teacher workloads
If universities want to charge maximum tuition fees, they will be required to "become involved" in academy sponsorship or the founding of free schools Reforming Ofsted inspections
Introduce T-Levels Scrap the planned expansion of grammar schools
Change the rules to allow the establishment of new Roman Catholic schools Ensure that identification and support for special educational needs and disabilities takes place as early as possible
New faith schools will now have to prove parents of other faiths and none would be prepared to send their children to that school Protect the availability of arts and creative subjects in the curriculum
Work to build up the investment funds of universities across the UK. Improve the quality of vocational education, including skills for entrepreneurship and self-employment, and improve careers advice and links with employers
Challenge gender stereotyping and early sexualisation
Reinstate university maintenance grants for the poorest students
Double the number of businesses that hire apprentices.
 
BREXIT
 
Labour Conservatives Liberal Democrats
Accept the EU referendum result and "build a close new relationship with the EU" prioritising jobs and and workers' rights Exit the European single market and customs union but seek a "deep and special partnership" including comprehensive free trade and customs agreement Second referendum on Brexit deal
Guarantee the rights of EU nationals living in the UK and work to "secure reciprocal rights" for UK citizens elsewhere in the EU Vote in both Houses of Parliament on "final agreement" for Brexit Press for the UK to unilaterally guarantee the rights of EU nationals in the UK
A "meaningful" role for Parliament throughout Brexit negotiations Assess whether to continue with specific European programmes and it "will be reasonable that we make a contribution" to the ones which continue Urge same rights for UK citizens living in European Union countries
Scrap Conservatives' Brexit White Paper and replace with "fresh negotiating priorities" with strong emphasis on retaining the benefits of the single market and customs union Agree terms of future partnership with EU alongside withdrawal, both within the two years allowed under Article 50 Membership of the single market and customs union
Reject no deal as a viable option and if needs be negotiate transitional arrangements "to avoid a cliff-edge for the UK economy" Convert EU law into UK law and later allow parliament to pass legislation to "amend, repeal or improve" any piece of this Protect freedom of movement and EU schemes which increase opportunities for young people
Keep EU-derived laws on workers' rights, equality, consumer rights and environmental protections Remain signatories to the European Convention on Human Rights for the next parliament Defend social rights such as maternity leave
Maintain UK's leading research role by seeking to stay part of Horizon 2020 and its successor programmes Repeal or replace the Human Rights Act "while the process of Brexit is under way" ruled out, although consideration will be given to the UK's "human rights legal framework" when Brexit concludes Maintain EU environmental standards and cooperation for law enforcement and justice
Seek to maintain membership of European organisations which offer benefits to the UK such as Euratom and the European Medicines Agency Reduce and control immigration from Europe after Brexit Retain City of London's rights in EU financial markets
Will not allow Brexit to be used as an excuse to undercut UK farmers and flood Britain's food chain with cheap and inferior produce. Seek to replicate all existing EU free trade agreements Campaign against any reduction in investment in UK universities
Support the ratification of trade agreements entered into during our EU membership Retain European Health Insurance Card, reduced roaming charges and pet passports
Introduce a Trade Bill in the next parliament Protect the rights of the people of Gibraltar.
Create a network of Her Majesty's Trade Commissioners to head nine new regional overseas posts
Reconvene the Board of Trade to increase exports from Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland as well as England.
 
Health and Social Care
 
Labour Conservatives Liberal Democrats
Deliver safe staffing levels and reduce waiting lists Real terms increases in NHS spending reaching £8bn extra per year by 2022/23 1p in the pound on income tax to raise £6bn for NHS and social care services
End hospital car parking charges A new GP contract and changes to the contract for hospital consultants Transform mental health care and waiting times
One million people will be taken off NHS waiting lists by "guaranteeing access to treatment within 18 weeks" Retain the 95% four hour A&E target Limit the amount elderly people have to pay for social care
Scrap NHS pay cap Require foreign workers and overseas students to pay more to cover the cost of NHS care. Guarantee the rights of all NHS and social care service staff who are EU nationals to stay in the UK
NHS will receive more than £30bn in extra funding over the next parliament End the public sector pay freeze for NHS workers
Mental health budgets will be ring-fenced, and Labour will ensure all children in secondary schools have access to a counselling service. Reinstate student nurse bursaries
Protect NHS whistle-blowers
Produce a national workforce strategy to prevent shortage of GPs, hospital doctors, nurses and other NHS staff
Increase access to mental health talking therapies
Examine the case for introducing a dedicated service for children and young people based on the Australian 'headspace' model
Early mental health support for pregnant women, new mothers and those who have experienced miscarriage or stillbirth
Fast-track exceptional graduates into children's social work and encourage high-achieving graduates to pursue a career in mental health social work
Tackle stigma against mental ill-health
Ensure that LGBT+ inclusive mental health services receive funding and support
Raise the amount people earn before losing Carer's Allowance from £110 to £150 a week
Promote easier access to GPs and prevent practice closures
HIV prevention available on the NHS
Tackle childhood obesity
Develop a just settlement for haemophiliacs who were given contaminated blood.
 
Social Security and Pensions
 
Labour Conservatives Liberal Democrats
Cuts to bereavement support payment will be scrapped, as will the bedroom tax and the "punitive sanctions regime" Scrapping the triple-lock on the state pension after 2020, replacing it with a "double lock", rising with earnings or inflation - but no longer 2.5% Maintain the 'triple lock' of increasing the state pension each year.
Reinstate housing benefit for under-21s Means test winter fuel payments to pensioners Withdraw eligibility for the Winter Fuel Payment from pensioners who pay tax at the higher rate (40%).
Guarantee state pension triple lock, as well as the winter fuel allowance and free bus passes Tighten the rules against pension abuse and increase punishment for those caught mismanaging pension schemes We will retain the free bus pass for all pensioners
"Rejects" proposal to increase state pension age further Give the pensions regulator powers to issue punitive fines for those found to have wilfully left a pension scheme under-resourced and if necessary, powers similar to those held by the Insolvency Service to disqualify relevant company directors Introducing a single rate of tax relief for pensions, which would be designed to be simpler and fairer and would be set more generously than the current 20% basic rate relief
A commitment to "protect the pensions of UK citizens living overseas in the EU or further afield". Consider new criminal offence for company directors who put at risk the ability of a pension scheme to meet its obligations.
 
Families and Communities
 
Labour Conservatives Liberal Democrats
30 hours free childcare to be extended to two-year-olds and "some" to one-year-olds Introduce a "breathing space" scheme to help those in serious debt be protected from further interest, charges and enforcement action for up to six weeks. Extend free childcare to all two-year-olds and to the children of working families from the end of paid parental leave
An end to the so-called "rape clause" - part of the policy of restricting child tax credits to the first two children in a family. It means mothers who have a third child as a result of rape can be exempted, but would have to provide evidence in order to do so An additional month's paid paternity leave
A review into reforming council tax and business rates, in favour of options such as a land value tax Introduce a new Young Person's Bus Discount Card for 16-21 year olds, giving a two-thirds discount on bus travel
A national review of local pubs to examine the causes for their large-scale demise, as well as establishing a joint taskforce that will consider future sustainability. 30 hours' free childcare a week for all parents in England with children aged from two to four years
Take 13,000 children out of poverty by letting both parents earn before their Universal Credit is cut
Reverse cuts to work allowances in universal credit and housing benefit for 18-21 year olds - increase jobseeker's allowance and universal credit for 18-24
Uprate working-age benefits at least in line with inflation
Abandon the two-child policy on family benefits and abolish the 'rape clause'
Reverse cuts to employment support allowance to those in the work-related activity group
Increase local housing allowance (LHA) in line with average rents in an area
Scrap the 'bedroom tax' and the work capability assessment
 
Migration
 
Labour Conservatives Liberal Democrats
Labour will not "scapegoat migrants" and will not set a cap on immigration, describing targets as "bogus" Commitment to "bear down on immigration from outside the EU" across all visa routes Vote against attempts to scrap the Human Rights Act or withdraw from the European Convention on Human Rights
International students will not be included in immigration numbers, but the party will crack down on "fake colleges". Immigration cut to under 100,000 Offer safe and legal routes to the UK for refugees - offering sanctuary to 50,000 Syrian refugees over five years
Labour believes in the "reasonable management of migration" but "will not make false promises on immigration numbers". Students expected to leave the country at the end of their course unless they meet new "higher" requirements allowing them to stay Reopen the Dubs scheme to take 3,000 unaccompanied refugee children from Europe.
Overseas students to remain in the immigration statistics.
 
Energy and Environment
 
Labour Conservatives Liberal Democrats
Ensure that 60% of the UK's energy comes from zero-carbon or renewable sources by 2030 UK should have the lowest energy costs in Europe, both for households and businesses Ensure that four million properties receive insulation retrofits by 2022, prioritising fuel-poor households
A ban on fracking Establish an industrial energy efficiency scheme to help large companies install measures to cut their energy use and their bills Prevent 40,000 deaths a year with Air Quality Plan to reduce air pollution
Nuclear power "will continue to be part of the UK energy supply" Smart meters offered to every household and business by the end of 2020 Ensure British farming remains competitive
Introduce an immediate emergency energy price cap to ensure the average dual fuel household energy bill remains below £1,000 per year Make it easier to switch energy providers and introduce a "safeguard tariff cap" A diesel scrappage scheme, and a ban on the sale of diesel cars and small vans in the UK by 2025
Maintaining access to the EU's internal energy market and retaining access to nuclear research programme Euratom will be a priority in Brexit negotiations. Independent review into the cost of energy to ensure UK energy costs are as low as possible, while ensuring a reliable supply and meeting 2050 carbon reduction objective Extend ultra-low-emission zones to 10 more towns and cities
Against more large-scale onshore wind power for England, but maintain position as a global leader in offshore wind and development of wind projects in the remote islands of Scotland, where they directly benefit local communities Run all private hire vehicles and diesel buses licensed to operate in urban areas on ultra-low-emission or zero-emission fuels within five years
Develop the shale industry in Britain Pass a Zero-Carbon Britain Act to set targets to reduce net greenhouse gas emissions by 80% by 2040 and to zero by 2050
Non-fracking drilling treated as permitted development Aim to generate 60% of electricity from renewables by 2030
Set up a new shale environmental regulator Support investment in energy storage, smart grid technology, hydrogen technologies, offshore wind, and tidal power
Change proposed shale wealth fund so greater percentage of tax revenues from shale gas directly benefit the communities that host the extraction sites. Oppose 'fracking'
Establish a £2bn flood-prevention fund
Increase the amount of accessible green space
Suspend the use of neonicotinoids until proven that their use in agriculture does not harm bees or other pollinators
Increase maximum sentence for animal cruelty from six months to five years, and a ban on caged hens
Clamp down on illegal pet imports
Reform agricultural subsidies
Pass a Zero-Waste Act
£2bn to ensure the provision of high-speed broadband across the rural UK
£2bn Rural Services Fund to co-locate council offices, post offices, children's centres, libraries and visiting healthcare professionals.
 
Transport
 
Labour Conservatives Liberal Democrats
Extend high speed rail link HS2 to Scotland Review rail ticketing to remove "complexity and perverse" pricing, with a passenger ombudsman introduced Investment in road and rail infrastructure, continued commitment to HS2, Crossrail 2 and rail electrification
Build a new Brighton main line for the SouthEast Minimum service levels agreed with train companies and staff during times of industrial action. A pledge to make this mandatory if a deal cannot be reached voluntarily Take over the running of Southern Rail and Govia Thameslink
Build Crossrail 2 - to run north-south through London between Hertfordshire and Surrey - "to ensure our capital continues to prosper" Focus on creating extra capacity on the railways to ease overcrowding, bring new lines and stations, and improve existing routes - including for freight Invest capital in major transport improvements and infrastructure
Recognise the need for additional airport capacity in the South East Continue investment in High Speed 2, Northern Powerhouse Rail and the expansion of Heathrow Airport, while ensuring these projects develop the skills and careers of British workers Oppose expansion of Heathrow, Stansted or Gatwick and any new airport in the Thames Estuary - instead focus on improving existing regional airports such as Birmingham and Manchester.
Almost every car and van to be zero-emission by 2050 with £600m investment by 2020 to help achieve it.
 
Housing
 
Labour Conservatives Liberal Democrats
Build over one million more homes, with at least half for social rent Halve rough sleeping over the course of the next parliament and eliminate it by 2027 Build 300,000 homes a year by 2022, including half a million affordable and energy-efficient homes
Homeowners will be offered interest free loans to improve their properties Meet 2015 commitment to deliver a million homes by the end of 2020 and half a million more by the end of 2022 £5bn of initial capital for a new British Housing and Infrastructure Development Bank
Guarantee help to buy funding until 2027 and give locals buying their first home "first dibs on new homes built in their area" Build better houses to match the quality of previous generations Green Buildings Act to ensure every home in England reaches at least an energy rating of Band C by 2035
Legislate to ban letting agency fees for tenants, and look at giving the Mayor of London power to give London renters "additional security" Support for high-quality, high-density housing like mansion blocks, mews houses and terraced streets Ensure at least four million homes are made highly energy efficient (Band C) by 2022, with priority given to fuel-poor households
Make 4,000 additional homes available for rough sleepers to end homelessness. 160,000 houses built on government land Restore the zero-carbon standard for new homes
Maintain the existing strong protections on designated land like the Green Belt, National Parks and Areas of Outstanding Natural Beauty Create at least 10 new garden cities in England
Continue £2.5bn flood defence programme to protect 300,000 existing homes by 2021. End the voluntary right to buy pilots that sell off housing association homes and the associated high value asset levy
Enable local authorities to levy up to 200% council tax on second homes and 'buy to leave empty' investments from overseas
Enforce housebuilding on unwanted public sector land
Penalise excessive land-banking when builders with planning permission have failed to build after three years.
 
Defence
 
Labour Conservatives Liberal Democrats
Support the renewal of the Trident submarine system Spend at least 2% of GDP on defence and increase the budget by at least 0.5% above inflation in every year of the new parliament Spend 2% of GDP on defence
Work with international partners and the UN on multilateral disarmament "to create a nuclear-free world" Pledge to "maintain" the overall size of the armed forces Spend 0.7% of gross national income on aid
Commit to the Nato benchmark of spending at least 2% of GDP on defence Retain the Trident continuous-at-sea nuclear deterrent Suspending arms sales to Saudi Arabia
Will have a complete strategic defence and security review Better compensation for injured personnel and the families of those killed in combat. Recruit STEM graduates to be armed forces engineers, providing 'golden handshakes' of up to £10,000
Insulate the homes of disabled veterans for free. Work to lead international nuclear disarmament efforts
Provide free further or higher education for anyone who has served in the armed forces for 12 years or more.
 
Drugs and Policing
 
Labour Conservatives Liberal Democrats
Recruit an additional 10,000 police officers to work on community beats Create a "national infrastructure police force", which brings together the Civil Nuclear Constabulary, the Ministry of Defence Police and British Transport Police Bring in a legal, regulated market for cannabis
Serious Fraud Office to be incorporated into the National Crime Agency Introduce limits on potency and permit cannabis to be sold through licensed to over-18s
£1bn to modernise the prison estate End imprisonment for possession of illegal drugs for personal use
Legislation to make changes in police practices if "stop and search does not become more targeted and stop to arrest ratios do not improve" Reducing the proliferation of betting shops and cap maximum bets on fixed odds betting terminals at one time to £2
Legislate if progress not made to reduce the "disproportionate use of force" against black, Asian and ethnic minority people in prison, young offender institutions and secure mental health units. £300m for community policing in England and Wales
Require all front-line officers to wear body cameras on duty
Replace police and Crime commissioners with police boards made up of local councillors.
 
Hope this thread gains a lot of traction from people so we can have valid discussion on these policies in regards to neoliberalism and other -isms.
 
If you feel like I missed something, or there are mistakes, then PM me so I can fix it :)
 
Enjoy!
submitted by Cryonyte to neoliberal [link] [comments]

S&P Futures Slide, Europe Jumps As Traders Beg For End To Turbulent Week

There is a sense of almost detached resignation amid trading desks as we enter the last trading day of a chaotic, volatile week that has whipsawed and stopped out virtually everyone after the Nasdaq saw the biggest intraday reversal since Thursday and pattern and momentum trading has become impossible amid one headline tape-bomb after another.
After yesterday furious tumble and sharp, last hour rebound, US equity futures are once again lower expecting fresh developments in the Huawei CFO arrest and trade war saga while today's payroll report may redirect the Fed's tightening focus in wage growth comes in hotter than the 3.1% expected; at the same time European stocks have rebounded from their worst day in more than two years while Asian shares posted modest gains as investors sought to end a bruising week on a more upbeat note. While stock trading was far calmer than Thursday, signs of stress remained just below the surface as the dollar jumped, Treasuries rose and oil whipsawed amid fears Iran could scuttle today's OPEC deal.

The MSCI All-Country World Index, which tracks shares in 47 countries, was up 0.3% on the day, on track to end the week down 2%.
After Europe's Stoxx 600 Index sharp drop on Thursday, which tumbled the most since the U.K. voted to leave the EU in 2016, Friday saw Europe's broadest index jump 1.2% as every sector rallied following the cautious trade in the Asia-Pac session and the rebound seen on Wall Street where the Dow clawed back nearly 700 points from intraday lows. European sectors are experiencing broad-based gains with marginal outperformance in the tech sector as IT names bounce back from yesterday’s Huawei-driven slump.

Technology stocks lead gains on Stoxx 600 Index, with the SX8P Index up as much as 2.3%, outperforming the 1.1% gain in the wider index; Nokia topped the sector index with a 5.9% advance in Helsinki after Thursday’s public holiday, having missed out on initial gains from rival Huawei’s troubles that earlier boosted Ericsson. Inderes said the arrest of Huawei CFO over potential violations of American sanctions on Iran will benefit Nokia and Ericsson, who are the main rivals of Huawei and ZTE. Similarly, Jefferies wrote in a note on Chinese networks that China may have to offer significant concessions to buy Huawei an “out of jail” card and reach a trade deal, with China’s tech subsidies and “buy local” policies potentially under attack. "For example, why would Nokia and Ericsson have only 20% share in China’s 4G market," analysts wrote.
Meanwhile, energy names were volatile as the complex awaits further hints from the key OPEC+ meeting today. In terms of individual movers, Fresenius SE (-15.0%) fell to the foot of the Stoxx 600 after the company cut medium-term guidance, citing lower profit expectations at its clinics unit Helios and medical arm Fresenius Medical Care (-7.8%). The news sent Fresenius BBB- rated bonds tumbling, renewing fears of a deluge of "fallen angels." On the flip side, Bpost (+7.5%) and Tesco (+4.8%) are hovering near the top of the pan-Europe index amid broker upgrades.
Earlier in the session, Japanese equities outperformed as most Asian gauges nudged higher. MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan nudged up 0.2%, though that followed a 1.8 percent drubbing on Thursday. Japan’s Nikkei added 0.8 percent. Chinese shares, which were up earlier in the day, slipped into negative territory with the blue chips off 0.1 percent.


E-Mini futures for the S&P 500 also started firmer but were last down 0.4 percent. Markets face a test from U.S. payrolls data later in the session amid speculation that the U.S. economy is heading for a tough patch after years of solid growth.
Will the last employment report released this year (the December report comes out in early January) help markets to continue to form a base? The consensus for nonfarm payrolls today is for a 198k print, following the stronger-thanexpected 250k reading last month. Average hourly earnings are expected to rise +0.3% mom which should be enough to keep the annual reading at +3.1% yoy while the unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 3.7%. DB's economists are more or less in line with the consensus with a 200k forecast and also expect earnings to climb +0.3% mom, however that would be consistent with a small tick up in the annual rate to +3.17% and the fastest pace since April 2009. They also expect the current pace of job growth to push the unemployment rate down to 3.6% which would be the lowest since December 1969.
Meanwhile, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell confused traders when late on Thursday, he emphasized the strength of the labor market, throwing a wrench into trader expectations the Fed is poised to pause tightening - arguably the catalyst for Thursday's market-closing ramp following a WSJ article which reported Fed officials were considering whether to signal a new wait-and-see mentality after a likely rate increase at their meeting in December.

While Friday's market has stabilized, for many the recent gyrations are just too much. For Dennis Debusschere, head of portfolio strategy at Evercore ISI, there’s still far too much risk to wade back into a market this riven by volatility. “Overall still untradeable in our opinion, until we get more clarity on trade and we think it will pay to wait this out,” he wrote in a note to clients Thursday. “That being said, our desk is open for business if you’re feeling up to trading this backdrop.”
Meanwhile, the big question is what happens next year: “The big question mark still is what’s going to happen in 2019” with the Fed, Omar Aguilar, CIO of equities and multi-asset strategies at Charles Schwab, told Bloomberg TV. “The jobs report could easily be the catalyst that will tell us a little more about what the path may be.”
Expecting that a big slowdown is coming, interest rate futures rallied hard in massive volumes with the market now pricing in less than half a hike next year, compared to just a month ago when they had been betting on more than two increases. Treasuries extended their blistering rally, driving 10-year yields down to a three-month trough at 2.8260 percent, before last trading at 2.8863 percent. Yields on two-year notes fell a huge 10 basis points at one stage on Thursday and were last at 2.75 percent. Investors also steamrolled the yield curve to its flattest in over a decade, a trend that has historically presaged economic slowdowns and even recessions.
The seismic shock spread far and wide. Yields on 10-year paper sank to the lowest in six months in Germany, almost 12 months in Canada and 16 months in Australia. Italian debt climbed as European bonds largely drifted.
The greenback advanced against most of its Group-of-10 peers ahead of U.S. jobs data that are expected to show hiring slowed last month. The pound fell as U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May was said to be weighing a plan to postpone the vote on her Brexit deal.
In commodity markets, gold firmed to near a five-month peak as the dollar eased and the threat of higher interest rates waned. Spot gold stood 0.1 percent higher at $1,239.49 per ounce. Oil was less favored, however, falling further as OPEC delayed a decision on output cuts while awaiting support from non-OPEC heavyweight Russia. Brent futures fell 0.5 percent to $59.77 a barrel, while U.S. crude also lost half a percent to $51.19. Cryptocurrencies continued their collapse with fresh losses after U.S. regulators dashed hopes that a Bitcoin exchange-traded fund would appear before the end of this year.
Market Snapshot
Top Overnight News from Bloomberg
Asian stocks saw cautious gains with the region getting an early tailwind after the sharp rebound on Wall St, where most majors inished lower albeit off worse levels as tech recovered and the DJIA clawed back nearly 700 points from intraday lows. ASX 200 (+0.4%) and Nikkei 225 (+0.8%) were both higher at the open but gradually pared some of the gains as the risk tone began to turn cautious heading into today’s key-risk NFP jobs data. Hang Seng (-0.3%) and Shanghai Comp (U/C) were indecisive amid further PBoC inaction in which it remained net neutral for a 5th consecutive week and with the upcoming Chinese trade data over the weekend adding to tentativeness, while pharmaceuticals were the worst hit due to concerns of price declines from the government’s centralized procurement program. Finally, 10yr JGBs were flat amid a similar picture in T-note futures and although early selling pressure was seen in Japanese bonds alongside the strong open in stocks, prices later recovered as the risk appetite somewhat dissipated.
Top Asian News - China’s FX Reserves Rose Despite Intervention, Outflow Signs - Hong Kong May Slip Into Recession in 2019, Deutsche Bank Warns - SoftBank Seeks to Assuage Investors on Pre-IPO Mobile Outage - Southeast Asia Reserves Recover a Bit in November as Rout Eases
European equities extended on gains from the cash open (Eurostoxx 50 +1.2%) following the cautious trade in the Asia-Pac session and the rebound seen on Wall St where the Dow clawed back nearly 700 points from intraday lows. European sectors are experiencing broad-based gains with marginal outperformance in the tech sector as IT names bounce back from yesterday’s Huawei-driven slump. Meanwhile, energy names are volatile (currently marginally underperforming) as the complex awaits further hints from the key OPEC+ meeting today. In terms of individual movers, Fresenius SE (-15.0%) fell to the foot of the Stoxx 600 after the company cut medium-term guidance, citing lower profit expectations at its clinics unit Helios and medical arm Fresenius Medical Care (-7.8%). On the flip side, Bpost (+7.5%) and Tesco (+4.8%) are hovering near the top of the pan-Europe index amid broker upgrades.
Top European News
Currencies:
In commodities, WTI (+0.2%) and Brent (+0.9%) are choppy in what was a volatile session thus far as comments from energy ministers emerged ahead of the key OPEC+ meeting, after yesterday’s OPEC talks ended with no deal for the first time in almost five years. Brent rose after source reports noted that Moscow are ready to cut output by 200k BPD (below OPEC’s desire of 250k-300k but above Russia’s prior “maximum” of 150k) if OPEC are willing to curb production by over 1mln BPD. Prices then fell to session lows following a less constructive tone from Saudi Energy Minister who reiterated that he is not confident there will be a deal today, which came after delegates noted that OPEC talks are focused on a combined OPEC+ cut of 1mln BPD (650k from OPEC and 350k from Non-OPEC). Markets are awaiting the start of the OPEC+ meeting after delegates stated that talks are at deadlocked as Iran appears to be the main sticking point to an OPEC deal, though sources emerged stating that Iran, Venezuela and Libya are set to get exemptions from cuts, adding that OPEC and Russia are looking for a symbolic production commitment from Iran as fears arise that Iran may not be able to follow-through on curb pledges due to US sanctions. In terms of metals, gold hovers around session highs and is set for the best week since August with the USD trading in a tight range ahead of the key US jobs data later today, while London copper rose over a percent is underpinned by the positive risk tone.
US Event Calendar
DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
The age of innocence has truly gone in financial markets after a turbulent 24 hours but one that saw a spectacular rally after Europe closed last night and one that has steadily carried on in Asia overnight (more on this below). Before we get to that I’m on an intense client marketing roadshow at the moment on the 2019 Credit outlook and there are a litany of worries out there from investors. Maybe I’m trying to be too cute here but I think the problems we’re seeing in credit at the moment are more of a “ghost of Xmas future” rather than a sign of an imminent disaster scenario. However my overall confidence that credit will blow up around the end of this cycle has only intensified in the last couple of weeks. Liquidity is awful in credit and it’s been a broken two way market for several years (probably as long as I’ve worked in it - 24 years). However this has got worse this cycle as the size of the market has grown rapidly but dealer balance sheets have reduced. As such you can buy massive size at new issue but your ability to sell in secondary is constrained to a small percentage of this. This didn’t matter much when inflows dominated - as they mostly did in this cycle pre-2018 - but in a year of outflows across the board the lack of a proper two way market is increasingly being felt. As discussed I don’t think this is the start of the crisis yet but be warned that when this economic cycle does roll over or even starts to operate at stall speed the credit market will be very messy and will influence other markets again.
On the positive side and despite a very steep mid-session selloff, US markets ultimately closed well off the lows. The DOW, S&P 500 and NASDAQ finished -0.32%, -0.15% and +0.42% respectively, though they traded as low as -3.14%, -2.91%, and -2.43% respectively, around noon in New York. At its lows, the S&P 500 was on course for its worst two-session stretch since February, and before that you’d have to go back to August 2015 or 2011 to find the last episode with as steep a two-day drop. The DOW and S&P 500 dipped into negative territory for the year again, but clawed back and are now +0.92% and +0.84% YTD (+3.16% and +2.69% on a total return basis). The NASDAQ has clung to its outperformance, as it is now up +4.13% this year, or +5.20% on a total return basis, though of course the difference is narrower in the low-dividend paying, high-growth tech index.
Unsurprisingly, the moves yesterday coincided with higher volatility with the VIX climbing as much as +5.2pts to 25.94 and pretty much back to the October highs, though it too rallied alongside the equity market to end close to flat at 21.15. Meanwhile, the price action was even uglier in Europe as the US lows were around the close. The STOXX 600 plunged -3.09% and is down -4.22% in two days – the most in two days since June 2016. Nowhere was safe. The DAX (-3.48%), CAC (-3.32%), FTSE MIB (-3.54%) and IBEX (-2.75%) all saw huge moves lower. The DAX has now joined the Italy’s FSTEMIB in bear market territory, as it is now -20.49% off its highs earlier this year. The FTSEMIB is down -24.04% from its highs. European Banks – which were already down nearly -27% YTD going into yesterday – tumbled -4.29% for the biggest daily fall since May and the third biggest since immediately after Brexit. The index is now at the lowest since October 2016 and within 17% of the June 2016 lows all of a sudden. US Banks fell -1.87%, though they had dipped -4.3% at their troughs to touch the lowest level since September 2017.
As for credit, HY cash spreads in Europe and the US were +8.5bps and +14.8bps wider respectively. For context, US spreads are now at the widest since December 2016 and this is the best performing broad credit market over the last couple of years. In bond markets, 10y Treasuries rallied-2.4bps but was as much as 9bps lower intra-day. Thanks to an outperformance at the front end (two-year fell -3.7bps), the 2s10s curve actually ended a shade steeper at 13.0bps (+1.3bps on the day). However that move for the 10y now puts it at the lowest since September at 2.89%, and only +48.6bps above where we started the year. The spread on the Dec 19 to Dec 18 eurodollar contract – indicative for what is priced into Fed hikes for next year - is down to just 16bps. It was at 60bps in October. This certainly appears to be too low, though a Wall Street Journal article yesterday seemed to signal a willingness by the Fed to moderate its pace of rate hikes. Finally, in Europe, Bunds closed -4.1bps lower at 0.236%.
Quite amazing moves with Bunds continuing to defy all fundamental logic and trading instead as a risk-off lightning rod. There was some talk that the sharp moves lower at the open yesterday were exaggerated by the unexpected midweek close for markets in the US which resulted in futures systems failing to be programmed to adjust and orders backing up. However the combination of a -2.25% drop for WTI (-5.2% at the lows) post the OPEC meeting (more below) and the Huawei story that we mentioned yesterday certainly aided to the initial malaise. There was some talk that both the Chinese and US authorities would have been aware of the arrest before last weekend’s talks and as such this story shouldn’t be necessarily a threat to the truce, though Reuters reported last night that President Trump did not know about the planned arrest. The implications of this are unclear, since it could mean that Trump has less direct control over the arresting agency, but it could also indicate that the move is not part of trade policy. Either way, how this development will be key for the market moving forward, especially any response from Chinese officials.
This morning in Asia markets are largely trading higher with the Nikkei (+0.60%), Hang Seng (+0.21%), Shanghai Comp (+0.08%) and Kospi (+0.51%) all up. Elsewhere, futures on the S&P 500 (-0.11%) are pointing towards a flattish start. Meantime crude oil (WTI -0.39% and Brent -0.60%) prices are continuing to trade lower this morning. It wouldn’t be an EMR worth it’s place in the daily schedule without an Italy and Brexit update. As we go to print Italian daily La Stampa has reported that the Italian Premier Conte and Deputy Premier Di Maio are in favour of the resignation of Finance Minister Tria while Deputy Premier Salvini is against his resignation. So signs of tension. In the U.K. a few press articles (like Bloomberg) are suggesting that PM May is considering postponing Tuesday’s big vote. There doesn’t seem to be a lot of substance to the story at the moment but it mentions going back to the EU for concessions on the Irish backstop as one possibility. How the EU will feel would be the obvious question.
As mentioned earlier, oil had a difficult session yesterday, falling back to its recent lows with WTI touching a $50 handle and Brent trading back below $60 per barrel. The first day of the OPEC summit did not appear promising for the odds of a new production deal, as the ministers apparently discussed a 1 million barrel per day cut, below the 1.5 million needed to balance the market.The Libyan oil minister abruptly left before the day’s meetings concluded, and the organization canceled their scheduled press conference. The Russian delegation will join the OPEC contingent today in an effort to finalize a deal, but Saudi Energy Minister al-Falih said that “Russia is not ready for a substantial cut.” Watch this space today.
Overnight, the Fed Chair Powell delivered an upbeat message on the US economy and the Job market ahead of today’s payrolls release. He said, “our economy is currently performing very well overall, with strong job creation and gradually rising wages,’’ while adding, “in fact, by many national-level measures, our labour market is very strong.’’ Elsewhere, the Fed’s John Williams said yesterday that the biggest challenge which the policy makers are facing is achieving a soft landing. He said, “we have a pretty strong economy -- unemployment pretty low, inflation near our goal -- it’s just managing a soft landing, keeping this expansion going for the next few years.”
So will the last employment report released this year (the December report comes out in early January) help markets to continue to form a base? The consensus for nonfarm payrolls today is for a 198k print, following the stronger-thanexpected 250k reading last month. Average hourly earnings are expected to rise +0.3% mom which should be enough to keep the annual reading at +3.1% yoy while the unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 3.7%. Our US economists are more or less in line with the consensus with a 200k forecast and also expect earnings to climb +0.3% mom, however that would be consistent with a small tick up in the annual rate to +3.17% and the fastest pace since April 2009. They also expect the current pace of job growth to push the unemployment rate down to 3.6% which would be the lowest since December 1969.
Going into that, yesterday’s ADP employment change report for November was a tad disappointing at 179k (vs. 195k expected) while more interestingly the recent tick up in initial jobless claims held with the print coming in at 231k. The four-week moving average is now 228k and the highest since April having gotten as low as 206k in September. So the climb, while not yet at concerning levels, is certainly notable and worth watching now on a week to week basis. As for the other interesting data points yesterday, the October trade deficit was confirmed as reaching a new cyclical wide. The ISM non-manufacturing print for November was a relative positive after coming in at 60.7, up 0.4pts from October and ahead of expectations for a decline to 59.0. Worth noting is that the three-month moving average of non-manufacturing ISM is now the highest on record which is a fairly reliable lead indicator for private nonfarm payrolls. US durable goods orders for October were revised slightly higher to -4.3% mom from -4.4%, though the core measures stayed at 0.0% mom. Factory orders declined -2.1% mom, though both were nevertheless higher year-on-year.
As for the day ahead, the aforementioned November employment in the US will no doubt be front and centre, however, prior to that, we’ve October industrial production prints in Germany and France, along with Q3 labour costs in the former, and the final Q3 GDP revisions for the Euro Area (no change from +0.2% qoq second reading expected). We’ll also get the monthly inflation reporting for November in the UK. Also due out in the US is October wholesale inventories and trade sales, the preliminary December University of Michigan survey and October consumer credit. November foreign reserves data in China is also expected out at some point. Away from that the OPEC/OPEC+ meeting moves into the final day while the ECB’s Coeure and Fed’s Brainard are scheduled to speak. Today is also the day that Germany’s ruling CDU party elects a new chair to succeed Merkel. Our FX strategists noted yesterday that according to polls, the result should be a close call between general secretary Annegret Kramp-Karranbauer (AKK) and Friedrich Merz. Broadly speaking, AKK stands for a continuation of the Merkel-era strategy of positioning the CDU at the centre of the political spectrum, whereas Merz stands for a sharpening of the party's traditional profile as a centre-right party. Last night our German economics team put out a piece explaining the event and suggesting that Merz would be good for the DAX and AKK good for the Euro.
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[OC][Jenkinsverse] 16: Firebird (pt. 2/2)

A JVerse story.
Chapter 16, Part 2 of the Kevin Jenkins series.
Chapter 16, part 1
Date Point: 4y 3m AV
HMS Myrmidon, in orbit around Cimbrean.
"Well, it’s official. The existence of this colony is now public knowledge, both on Earth and out in the greater galaxy."
Sir Jeremy Sandy seemed remarkably well-rested considering how hectic his last few days must have been. Preparing the colony to go public, recording a press statement, finalizing the provisional draft of the opening proposals for the first Colonial Council, a formal naming ceremony for Folctha and so much more should have taken a real toll on him. Instead, the Old Man - everybody referred to him as that, respectfully - seemed composed and steady.
It was the considered opinion of Captain David Manning that the Old Man must have absolutely cast-iron discipline about his sleep schedule.
It was a skill he himself had never learned, and he was constantly suffering for it, but there was just so much to do. Assimilating the two plundered Hierarchy vessels - since renamed Caledonia and Myrmidon - into the Royal Navy was always going to have been an immense task, especially given the total lack of appropriate orbital facilities to refit them, anywhere in humanity’s controlled territory.
That hadn’t changed. While Earth’s stipend from the Dominion as a newly-Contacted race, plus the compensation settlement for the Enclosure, had been more than enough to afford a top-class shipyard, the fact was that securing such a thing from either side would have upset the delicate neutrality that was the Global Representative Assembly’s choice of policy.
Besides, there was good reason not to trust the alien tech. So much of it was unknown, so little of it operating at standards of safety or redundancy which would have satisfied even the most slapdash of human engineers. Thin single-skin hulls held together by forcefields were, presumably, at least safe enough to run a major interstellar economy or two on, but they didn’t come close to the rigorous demands of the British Armed Services.
All of which meant that such infrastructure would need to be bootstrapped on Earth, which would take months at the bare minimum.
So, the ships were effectively being refit in flight. Even having large chunks powered down, depressurised, replaced and powered up again. They were barely recognisable as being the same sleek vessels that had first arrived at Cimbrean months ago. Gone were the quantum reactor cores, spirited away to Earth for study and replaced by vast banks of supercapacitors. Gone too were the coilguns, plasma cannons and missile tubes. The outer hulls, once mirror-polished artistic marvels, had been methodically stripped off, reshaped, sanded, and slathered in matte-black RADAR-absorbent stealthing paint. That alone had taken the crew literal months of angle-grinding and wire-brushing, made all the more complicated by the fact that, helped though they were by the artificial gravity, they still had to work in spacesuits. Which meant training them first.
Caledonia’s urgent mission had pulled her away long before the refit was completed. There was still a cloud of marooned hull panels orbiting gently at her anchorage. Myrmidon was more intact - her stealthing was complete, and the first two of a total of seven Skymaster guns had now been installed, powered and connected to their magazines, as had the first of a trio of Phalanx CIWS.
Much had been kept, of course. The cloak remained, as did the single quantum core necessary to power it indefinitely. The ship’s "keel" - the thick structural spine to which the engines and hull were both anchored - had been reinforced rather than replaced. The small craft bays were untouched, though everybody wanted some kind of physical door to supplement the atmosphere retention field. The general internal layout was completely unchanged, except for having been stripped of anything remotely resembling electronics. The plumbing and electrical wiring was similarly untouched - even aliens, it seemed, couldn’t screw up the basic logistics of getting water and electricity safely throughout the ship without their leaking or meeting.
It was an immense task, only just now beginning to approach the end of Phase One. It would be another year of hard work before Myrmidon was completely renovated to the satisfaction of her captain and his superiors.
"We could have done with another week." he told Sir Jeremy. “After that, all the weapons will be active.”
"The system shield is our first line of defence anyway. With all respect, Captain, two half-rebuilt ships won’t hold off the Great Hunt if it comes down on us."
"True." Manning allowed. “but I’d still feel safer with more firepower.”
"A week isn’t so very long."
"In Civic Planning, maybe. Anyway, thanks for the update. Good luck with the Press."
He returned to his paperwork. There was always so much to do…
Date Point: 4y 3m 1w AV
Independent Trade Station 104: "Auspice of Prosperity"
"The whole station?"
"Oh yes. All because they allowed a few humans to live there."
The whispering pair spared a shifty glance in Miranda’s direction, clearly thinking they were out of earshot, and were being covert. Maybe they would have been, with any other species.
She tucked into a nutrient sphere, one of the four on her plate. The non-flavour and non-texture of the universal foodstuff was at least better than the bad taste being left in her mouth by the overheard conversation.
She ignored it, slipping into her inhale-pause-exhale-pause meditation, until one phrase slipped past her attention.
"... should throw her out the airlock."
"Murder me? Really?"
She wouldn’t have chosen to speak. If the decision had been conscious, she would have kept silent. But her weary outrage outpaced her discipline, and the words sang on the air, loud enough to bring conversation in the entire dining hall to instant silence.
The one who had said it - a Kwmbwrw female - both shrank and bristled.
Damage done. In for an inch, in for a mile. She stood, carrying her chair with her, set it up at the two conspirators’ table, reversed and straddled. "Care to tell me how killing a fellow sophont to save your own hide is any better than what the Hunters are doing?"
The other conspirator - this one a relatively slim Locayl - cleared his throat, a gesture held in common with humans.
"My friend Gwnrwt here has lost family to the Hunters." he rumbled, expression conciliatory. “The subject makes her-”
"Don’t apologise on my behalf, Golron." the Kwmbwrw snapped. “I can tidy my own burrow, thank you.”
"As you say. If you’ll excuse me while I fetch a second helping then…" the Locayl stood, then addressed Miranda. “Would you like a measure of water? I understand your species need a lot of it.”
"That’s very thoughtful." Miranda thanked him. “Yes please.”
Gwnwrt watched him go, then sneered at her. "Expecting an apology, human?"
"How would you feel if total strangers were talking about spacing you just for being a Kwmbwrw?"
"Kwmbwrw don’t endanger everybody on the station just by being here."
"I’ve got to be somewhere."
"Out the airlock is somewhere."
Miranda was pleased to see that despite her Kwmbwrw antagonist’s bravado, a cool stare still made her very uncomfortable. "I don’t even know why I bothered." she snapped, standing. “
Beings scattered as she strode out of the room, instinctively recoiling from the sight of an angry Deathworlder.
She was impressed when the Locayl - Golron - caught up with her down the corridor. His longer legs at least gave him the burst of speed to catch up with her angry stride, though it left him thoroughly out of breath.
"What do you want?" She snapped.
"My friend is…" he began, wheezing.
"A hell-bitch?"
"That... didn’t translate."
She relaxed. He had clearly gone to a lot of trouble to catch up, the least she could do was hear him out.
"I wasn’t being kind about her."
"I… guessed… As much. Whew." He straightened up, still breathing heavily but clearly more in control again now.
"What do you want, Golron?"
"She thought you were staying here for some selfish reason when there’s an alternative available."
"What alternative?"
"I thought so! You don’t know, do you?"
"Know what?"
"I was wondering why you would stay here when people like Gwnwrt must make life so hard, and when the Great Hunt is out there scouring for humans and devouring innocents on places like the Exos station, but then it occurred to me that maybe you haven’t heard."
"Heard what, Golron?" Miranda practically burst.
"Your people have a colony now. A place where you could settle among your own kind, or maybe even go home. No more prejudice, no more…" he looked back down the corridor.
"No more hypocrisy? If I’d lost family to the Hunters, I would never suggest throwing somebody else to them."
He sighed. "I really am sorry."
"Don’t be. You didn’t say it."
They stood in silence for a moment as she thought. "Did you hear this colony’s name?"
"Folctha, on the planet Cimbrean. They announced it a few [days] ago."
"I bet the Dominion didn’t like that."
"The planet in question is on the far side of the Celzi front line, and the Alliance have vocally supported your species’ right to self-determination." Golron told her. “I’m sure the Dominion is very unhappy indeed.”
She laughed, although it was spoiled just a little as Golron recoiled from the flash of teeth. Nobody seemed to understand smiling. And it would be nice…
"Thank you, Golron. I think I might just go there."
"It’s probably the best thing for everyone." he agreed. “I’m sorry we weren’t clear with you earlier. We just gossiped rather than actually talking with you.”
"Well, you came through in the end. You and I are fine. Gwnwrt can still go fuck herself though."
"That seems…"
"Anatomically impossible, I know." she finished the all-too-familiar objection wearily.
She definitely needed to be back among her own kind.
Fortunately, she had just enough saved up. It would be a one-way trip, but the important part was, she could afford it.
Date Point 4y 4m 3w AV
Ceres Base, Sol
Drew Cavendish
"No! NO!!" Drew elbowed his way between the new miners and singled out the culprit. “You do not just check your own seal and trust it. You check your friend’s, and get him to check yours, and then you both get a third opinion!”
He leaned in and tapped the newcomer’s faceplate to punctuate his next sentence, pleased to see that they had gone pale inside their hardsuit. "The alternative (tap) is that you die (tap). *Come on, this is the most basic stuff, you already went over this down on Earth!"
"Sorry, boss." the offender mumbled.
"Don’t give me ‘sorry’." he growled, grabbing the helmet and yanking. It popped right off. “If you had tried to go out there, we’d have had to blow the emergency repressure on the airlock, and that costs seven thousand pounds and a couple of burst eardrums. Get. Your seal. Checked.”
"Yes, boss."
"Right. Get that helmet back on."
He watched as the newbie did so, and as his team members checked and double-checked the seal, to everyone’s apparent satisfaction.
"Right. Time to head out there. Now remember, outside the modules the surface gravity is only point-two-seven M slash S. That’s point zero-two-nine Gs. So until we’re clear of any overhead structures, we are going to shuffle, keeping our feet on the floor. Walking normally will bounce you into the air like a bloody ball. If you jump, you aren’t coming back down again for minutes. Your SAFER pack is for emergencies only. Is everyone clear?"
There was a general muttering of "yes boss". He didn’t bother to ask them to sound off - this wasn’t the military - but he made eye contact with every single one to make sure they weren’t just agreeing by rote.
"Fine. Let’s go."
There was, he knew, a lot of work still to do. It took time for people to intuitively recognise the difference between weight and mass. It took even longer for them to finally understand that working in a vacuum and under microgravity was actually harder work than down on Earth. Only two - and these two he knew were going to turn out to be excellent members of the team - had started their hardsuit careers by spending time wearing the suit and customising it with tape and padding and a little swatch of velcro inside the helmet and a stylus or piece of wire on one of their fingers. The others would be pinched and blistered by the time they came back indoors in a few hours’ time, distracted and maddened by the inevitable itches, and frustrated by the thick gloves’ inability to handle delicate work.
He caught a glimpse of the artwork that one of the two customizers had done on the side of his helmet. It was actually a sticky decal, a classic trashy pin-up of a rock chick with tattoos holding up a prominent full house. The scrollwork underneath read "Aces and Kings".
Trashy and cliched though the decal was, it was a sensible idea for immediate identification, and Drew decided he would get one of his own as soon as possible.
The airlock cycled, and the newbies took their first steps into vacuum.
In his heart of hearts, Drew couldn’t have been happier.
Date Point: 4y 4m 3w AV
Phoenix, Arizona, USA, Earth.
Gabriel Arés
Adam and Ava had school. Neither felt up to it, but Gabriel had put his foot down. They still needed an education, and they needed a return to something resembling normalcy for the sake of their mental health.
Phoenix had heard the death of San Diego. The shockwave had faded to the point of only cracking a few windows and setting off some car alarms by the time it washed over central Arizona, but it had still been loud - nobody in the city had failed to notice it, with even Phoenix’s deaf residents feeling the noise deep inside their chests.
It was tough for Gabriel, too. He didn’t know anybody in this city, pretty much all of his friends and living relatives had lived in San Diego. Aside from a few distant cousins in Guadalajara and the handful of SDPD officers who had, like him, been out of town on the day their city was killed, there was nobody left.
Phoenix, he suspected, was just temporary. But he had no idea where would come next. And after moving all their stuff in and getting the kids off to school, he was finding himself sitting around watching movies and resisting the urge to drink. That way, he knew, led self-destruction.
He was lost in a black mood when his phone rang, the default wooden-ish staccato notes taking a few seconds to percolate through Bruce Willis fleeing the cops in a flying taxi.
"Hello?"
"Hello there, is this detective Gabriel Arés?" The voice had a British accent.
"*Sí. *Retired."
"Sir, my name is Sean Howard, I work for the Cimbrean colonial administration. Your name was forwarded to me by a Mr. Jenkins at the Scotch Creek research facility?"
"Jenkins? Yes, I know him. What’s he doing forwarding my name to you?"
"With the colony having gone public and opened its doors to potential settlers, we’re beginning to establish our civilian law enforcement. You came highly recommended."
"Me?" Gabriel shifted uncomfortably as his abused spine twinged at him. “Why? I’m not exactly fighting fit any more.”
"We still need a chief of police. Somebody to handle policy, set up our police service, and to take an investigative role if - God forbid - we need it. You won’t be expected to go chasing anywhere."
"So it’s a desk job, then?"
"A highly-paid and senior one in the colonial administration, complete with accomodation for you and any dependents."
"I’ve got two teenagers under my care."
"We have a school, sir. We’re trying to attract families, we take education seriously."
"And why would I want to leave Earth?"
"That’s for you to decide, sir. But we intend to build a good life out of here. A fresh start, the model for humanity’s future. I can’t tell you whether or not you’re interested in being involved in that."
Gabriel thought about it. After a few moments of silence, Howard spoke. "It’s a big decision, you’re under no pressure detective, but with your qualifications and background we’d love to have you. I’ll let you think about it."
"Thank you."
Howard hung up.
Gabriel was still thinking about it when the kids got home.
Date Point: 4y 6m AV
Folctha, Cimbrean
Ava Rios
"-na take Fuck me!!"
Adam’s hands jerked up in alarm as the world around them blinked. One instant, it was the dull concrete and steel interior of a hangar somewhere in Canada, and the next… well, a palace. Or at least the glass and steel structure on the lawn of a palace that housed Folctha’s end of the Jump Array.
The architecture was a lot strange, but elegant - all curves and loops and domes, looking more like something that had been gently coaxed out of the landscape rather than built atop it.
She giggled at his alarm, and it surprised even her - ever since her parents had died in the San Diego blast, mirth had been hard to find, but it sprang back suddenly, watching her boyfriend jump out of his skin at the sudden change.
"Language." she teased. He blushed, noticing that others in the colonist group were grinning at him, although most were also clearly recovering from their own surprise.
She smiled at his back as he scowled and hoisted the bags that contained all his and Gabriel’s worldly possessions. Gabriel protested that he could carry his own load, but Adam knew better - the older Arés, a handsome and grey-haired mirror-image of his son, was too stubborn to admit that his injury still impeded him - long hours in the gym had gone a long way toward restoring his fitness, but the bullet had done permanent harm that would never quite go away.
Ava wheeled her own bag behind her, taking in the sights as they emerged through a short tunnel, passing through a gossamer orange curtain of light that tingled her skin and made her teeth feel strange.
The air beyond was cool. Cold, even. Not the biting chill she’d felt during their few days at Scotch Creek, that invaded her clothing and pinched at her skin, but the cold of a crisp spring morning, though it looked like full daytime. The air tasted… sweet, almost. There was only a tang of wood smoke on it, which if anything only enhanced the certainty that this was a place that humanity had yet to leave any kind of a permanent footprint on.
The sun was strange, too. It was… more orange, slightly. A little larger. It made the place look warm, even while the air felt chilly.
There was a smattering of cheers and applause from a small crowd that had gathered to greet the new arrivals. A silver-haired man in a suit was shaking hands and offering warm welcomes.
They’d been prepared for the cold, of course. Cimbrean’s immigration policy included funding to buy some rugged clothes suitable for the colony. Out of their own pockets, she and Adam had paid for some customization, with the result that their jackets bore matching patches on the sleeve - skyscrapers and a phoenix, and the legend "De las Cenizas".
Avoiding the governor who was warmly shaking Gabriel’s hand and welcoming him to Folctha, she looked around.
To her relief, she immediately spotted that a second group had formed off on the sidelines - Folctha’s junior citizens, some of whom waved at her when they saw her notice them. She tapped Adam on the arm to get his attention, pointed them out, and together they broke away from the group to meet their new peers.
It was quite the mix. Most were obviously English - there was just something about how they stood, did their hair, what they wore that screamed it, even before they spoke - and quite the age range, too. She and Adam were probably toward the older end of the spectrum - the youngest was clearly only about nine years old.
There wasn’t a lot of makeup being worn, she noticed, becoming suddenly and absurdly conscious of her own, subtle though it was. In the last couple of years, makeup had started to become more of a male thing in schools too - the boys had turned out to be just as vain as the girls once the makeup companies had broken a generations-old prejudice and started marketing foundation at the adolescent male market. It had been met with ridicule and even outrage among some parents, but had caught on.
It was slightly strange to realise that now, the only other person wearing any makeup at all in this little group was her boyfriend.
There were introductions, some stereotypically British apologies about being "terrible at names" and apologising in advance for getting them wrong… really, it was just like going to a new school, though as far as she could tell it was refreshingly free of drama.
"So, what are you guys going to be doing?" she asked.
"It’s all apprenticeships right now." one of the girls - Gwen - told her. “But the colony’s not really settled yet, it’s only a couple of months old. I was thinking I’d go for nursing, maybe doctor, but it depends on what we need.”
"Botany." Kieron said, firmly.
"I’m already doing it. I’m the colony’s only journalist!" That part had been obvious. Sara - at the absolute most, only fourteen years old - was wearing a big dSLR camera and a tablet computer in a satchel on her hip and had been taking notes and pictures throughout. “What about you?” She asked of Adam. She had that popped-hip, interested look that Ava knew well, so she nestled up to him and took his arm, just to make sure both of them were clearly off-limits. Some of the guys had been looking at her with interest too.
If he noticed the attention, Adam gave no sign of it. "Law enforcement." he said. “It’s what I was planning on doing back on Earth.”
"Oh, wait, your dad’s our new police chief, isn’t he?"
"That’s right."
"What about you, Ava?"
"Like, uh, Gwen said, I guess it depends on what we need. I mean, the plans I had don’t really… I mean, like, who needs a theatrical makeup artist here?"
"Go for it anyway." Big Jack shrugged. “Can you do hair?”
"Uh, yeah. A bit."
"There you go then."
"I don’t know, I never saw myself as a stylist." Ava protested. “I like the girly stuff, but not, like, enough to do it for a living.”
"Well, if nothing else, it’s something to do until you find somebody to apprentice under, and you could earn some money." Sara said. She spoke in a hummingbird blur, so fast that it was sometimes hard to tell where one word end and the next began, and was constantly being told to slow down by the others. “I mean I know my mum would love to get her hair done and her nails and some of the men have really ewww beards now so maybe you could learn to shave too, you could make a lot of money just helping people stay…”
"Hey, no pressure." Adam interrupted her, hugging Ava round her waist. “We don’t need to rush in, we don’t even know where we’re sleeping yet.”
"Oh, your house is all built and ready!" That was Little Jack, the youngest kid in the group who’d so far remained silent and let the bigger kids gossip. He turned to Sara, whose identical brown hair suggested they were siblings. “Can I show them? Please?”
Sara laughed indulgently. "Oh kaaay" she mock-relented. “I’ll come with you. See you tonight, guys!”
They walked away, Little Jack running forward and then occasionally stopping to grouse about how slow they were being.
"Were you told where you’re staying?" she asked.
"We were told there’d be a house. Dad was pretty spare on the details." Adam admitted.
"Not just any house, you two are getting your own!" Sara said. “You’re so lucky, I have to stay with Mum and Dad and Jack.”
"Our own place? Like, just us? I figured we’d be staying with Gabriel…" Ava glanced back down the road to where Arés senior was still meet-and-greeting with, presumably, the colony’s most important people. He’d sunk gratefully onto a camp stool while he talked.
"Oh, he’s up on Palace Rise." Sara said, pointing toward the half-rebuilt palace. “All the admin people live up there. You’re down here on Delaney Row, near the school.”
"Delaney Row?" Ava asked.
"You’ve got street names already?" Adam followed up.
"Yeah!" Sara said. “Jen Delaney was the first governor here. She handed it over to Sir Jerry and left. I heard the soldiers talking about her, they all think she’s really badass and they say she can shoot a gun really accurately and she told them all off one time because they saw her naked and were staring but she didn’t care, so they voted to name one of the housing zones after her.”
"Voted where?" Adam asked her.
"The Thing."
"Like… council, senate?"
"No, the Thing. It’s an old word, I think Norse? You know, Vikings? It’s like, the whole town getting together to talk and vote. Sir Jerry says it’s the best kind of democracy for right now because we’re still so small."
Sara clearly had an enthusiasm for sharing knowledge that was the hallmark of a born journalist, coupled to the motor mouth of a born irritant. "One of the sessions, we voted on what to call everything. So we’ve got Palace Rise, Delaney Row, Crash Avenue, Camp Uplift - that’s the army, you’ll like them, they’re really tidy... uh, cool - we’ve not got names right down to streets yet because there’s not really any streets and… oh, we’re here."
Adam and Ava’s house turned out to be tiny. In fact, it could have fit comfortably inside a large room. Inside, though, it turned out to be pure efficient space. It had everything - The living room doubled as a kitchen, complete with cooker, dishwasher and washedryer (though these both had signs on them warning that they weren’t yet working), a folding-out dining table that recessed cleverly into the floor when not in use, and a fridge. The bed was up a short, extremely steep flight of stairs that doubled as storage, and below it were the bathroom, complete with a shower and bath, and even a spare room. The whole thing couldn’t have been more than twenty feet long, and even included a porch.
"They’ve still not got the town water set up yet," Sara continued “but there’s, like, a collector on the roof for rainwater, that should keep you going until that happens. Dad says it’s really clean because Cimbrean is a class Four world, so apparently you can drink right out of the stream if you want, but he said it’s still not a great idea to do that just in case, so the collector purifies the rainwater, and you’ve got a little water heater. It’s really cool, it only rains at night here, you get to listen to rain on the roof every night. It’s amazing.”
She paused for breath, then seemed to recall the principle of letting other people get a word in sideways. "What do you think?"
Ava just looked at Adam, who was gazing around with one of only a few genuine smiles she had seen on him in months. "I think… wow. I think wow." He said. Ava nodded, pleased that he was so pleased.
Sara just beamed, then seemed to remember something. "Oh, yeah, I made you a welcome gift!"
She produced an ovoid disc of sanded wood - though Ava guess that the wood in question was nothing that might be found on Earth. Before applying a coat of varnish, somebody had carefully pyrographed a single word onto it.
"EDEN."
"It’s… a house name sign. You know? With your names, I thought… do you like it?"
"I like it." Ava told her. Adam nodded beside her.
"I helped!" Jack exclaimed.
"No you didn’t, you watched!" Sara protested. “I did all the work.”
"Nuh-uh, Dad did all the work, you just wrote on it, and I helped because I fetched the sandpaper for him!"
"It’s wonderful." Ava assured them both. “I’ll hang it up after we’re done unpacking.”
"Oh okay. I should get back up to the palace and take pictures and see who’s arrived so I can put it in the newsletter anyway." Sara beamed. “See you tonight?”
"What’s happening tonight?"
"We’re having a big cookout like we always do when new people come. Just follow your nose, you can’t miss it!"
"Okay. We’ll see you there." Adam promised.
The little house became noticeably quieter the second the brother and sister were gone. Ava sank onto the couch with a sigh, finding it extremely comfortable considering how small it was. "Wow. What does she run on?" she grumbled.
Adam just chuckled, still poking around. "Our own place! I KNEW Dad was keeping a secret!"
"I know… hey." Ava stood up, took his hand, turned him towards her and kissed him. “I’m kinda scared.” she admitted.
"Of what?"
"Adam, come on. We’re sixteen. I mean come on, we’re still kids! But everybody’s treating us like we’re not, even your dad. I don’t know if I want to be treated like an adult yet."
"I guess…" He agreed. “It’s like… our first date was, what, less than a year ago? Ten months.”
"Yeah. And that scares me because now… like, here we are. Living together, on our own, starting a new life. Like we’re... um." She trailed off, not quite willing to say the word that hung on the end of that sentence.
"Like we’re… Yeah." He agreed.
"Yeah..."
She rested her head against his chest, and it made his voice sound bassy and warm as he rubbed her hair and confessed "I’m scared too."
It made her feel a lot better.
Date Point: 4y 6m AV
Lockheed-Martin Skunk Works, Nevada Desert
Rylee Jackson
It felt like a very personal kind of heresy, but the second she saw her new sled, Rylee fell in love all over again.
She heard her own enthusiasm without really registering that she was saying it. "Oh. My. God. Look at this thing!"
It was definitely the child of the TS-101. The lines were very similar, but… sleeker. Finer. Sharper, somehow. The GAU-8/S housing was smoother and flusher with the hull, the barrel itself seeming an organic part of the vehicle rather than the chunky load it had been on Pandora. The prominent, tumorous ESFALS blisters were now mere subte swellings in the belly. The kinetic thrusters had been moved and sunk into the hull, finally getting rid of an obsolete concession to air intake. The cockpit was longer, lower, built for two.
She was like Pandora after a makeover, with her war paint on. Meaner, leaner and keener. Even in the hangar, even with a tarp still draped over her, she looked like the empress of the sky.
"Thought you’d like her." The chief engineer said, grinning. She could have kissed him then and there. But there was an important question to ask first.
"When do I get to fly her?"
"Come on, you don’t think we’d tease you like that, do you?" he asked. “She’s ready now.”
"Oh!" Rylee beamed at him “I love you.”
"Ahh, I bet you say that to all the guys who give you a multi-million dollar aerospace vehicle."
Rylee giggled at that. "You got me. But okay, what’s she called?"
"Officially? She’s the Lockheed-Martin TS-2. But we’re still open to suggestions on a fancy name to go with that."
Rylee reached up and touched her new beloved’s hull for the first time. It was warm to the touch, and after the events of only a few months ago, she could think of only one appropriate name.
"Firebird."
Date Point: 4y 6m 1w AV
Ceres Base, Sol
Drew Cavendish
"...Criticized the President’s handling of the aftermath of the San Diego blast as the USA officially slipped into recession this week with the economy recording its second successive quarter of decline. The Dow Jones and FTSE 100 index fell sharply in response to the news, fuelling worldwide fears that the aftermath of San Diego’s destruction will be a worldwide financial crisis, though China’s SSE Index closed trading up three-...+"
"Hey, I was bloody watching that!" Drew M complained. It was uncharacteristic of Cavendish to just march into the office and shut off the news feed.
Then again, it was uncharacteristic of him to be unwashed and still wearing his hardsuit’s underlayer around the office.
"Yes, well, we have a serious problem."
Drew M snapped immediately into business mode - his boots swung down from the desk and he blurred through a series of keyboard shortcuts, summoning the serious incident forms. "What happened?"
"Nothing, exactly. But it was this close to being a dead miner." Cavendish dropped something on the desk.
"What’s this?"
"Hardsuit heat regulation field emitter. It’s an essential component of the life support system. Supposed to keep you-"
"I know what it does, mate."
"Aye, sorry."
"This one broken?"
"Malfunctioning. It was drawing in heat constantly. If Aces wasn’t super careful, He’d have gone out that airlock and slowly heated up and heated up until the hyperthermia got him."
"Aces?"
"Kessler. I call them all by their helmet decals these days. Bless ‘im, he’s a careful one, he runs a full diagnostic before we head out, every time. That’s why he caught it. Anybody else…"
"I’ll write it up." Drew M promised.
"Yeah, well. Don’t put this next bit in the report, mate."
Cavendish shut the door. "Between you and me, I suspect foul play."
"Holy dooley, Drew. You sure?"
"If I was sure, I wouldn’t be telling you to keep it dark. But we ran a full check on these things last night. It happened exactly when we were least likely to catch it, and exactly when it was least likely to happen, too."
"That’d be right."
"Yeah, well. As team lead I’m making a decision here - full check, every day."
"That’ll shave an hour off our work time every shift. That adds up, mate - you’ll put the whole project behind schedule." Drew M protested. His heart wasn’t really into it, though. When it came down to it, they both knew that deadlines were less important than lives.
"As opposed to a man dying out there because of an equipment failure we could have caught that morning? Not on my watch, Drew."
"Nah, yeah. You go ahead and get that done, I’ll fill in the report. But we’ll keep the sabotage idea on the down-low and keep an eye out for now, right?"
"And hope I’m wrong, yes."
Drew was in a thoughtful mood as he returned to the hardsuit maintenance workshop. His helmet was lying exactly where he’d left it, uncharacteristically untidy atop the workbench. He’d relented and agreed to a pinup for his helmet decal after they had swept through the team, driven by Jenny O’neill’s decision to have a shirtless and otter-muscled samurai adoring hers. Cavendish’s own was still relatively tasteful - the girl was seen from behind looking back over her shoulder, wearing a blaze orange boiler suit and a welding mask to match the torch on her other shoulder. The only real concessions to titillation were the way the boiler suit clung to her figure just a little too well, a hint of sideboob, and the obligatory pout.
Strong colours and a shape that was easily identified at a distance were the order of the day - the pinups had become a critical part of recognising one another in the strange lighting conditions of an asteroid’s surface. While each of the pinups was certainly nice to look at up close, being able to glance at the side of a team member’s head and see O’neill’s splash of purple Hakama, or Kessler’s strong black and white, was a godsend for immediate identification. Even the experimental RFID system wasn’t so useful, except at longer distances.
"What’s the verdict?" He asked. He’d left the team to run diagnostics on their gear in response to Kessler’s near-miss.
Chitsenga shook her head. Her helmet decal was of a dreadlocked guitar player. "All clean." she reported.
"Good. Take ten, then we’re going to suit up and get back out there. May as well get a half day in." They all nodded and filed out to freshen up, grab a bite, take a toilet break or whatever else they did to prepare for hours out in the pit, and pretty soon he was left alone with Kessler, who was still fastidiously calibrating the faulty emitter’s replacement.
"Did you check the footage?" Kessler asked him.
"Not yet."
Kessler just grunted and jerked a thumb towards the workshop’s only computer. Drew shrugged, passing off the gesture - brusque even by Kessler’s terse standards - as the product of stress and a near-miss with death, and opened the security camera footage.
He wasn’t remotely surprised when, two hours before the start of shift, eight minutes of footage turned out to be corrupted.
Date Point: 4y 6m AV
Office of the Director of the CIA, Washington DC, USA, Earth
"He was as good as his word, actually. I think our chaps impressed upon him that if we were inclined to bring him back in for another little chat, there would be little he could do to stop us."
"Yeah, well I met your man Powell. That man could scare the red off the devil."
"He’s an asset like that, yes."
"This is pretty grim news, Michael." the Boss told his opposite number. “If even one of those implants we imported is compromised that way...”
"I was under the impression we reverse-engineered the lot, and that every single one in use anywhere on Earth or beyond was built and installed by our own people."
"Yeah, but from what the guys up at Scotch Creek told my people up there, the problem with that is that alien tech is still a ways ahead of our own, so we’re not so much reverse-engineering as copy-pasting in a lot of cases."
"...I see. You don’t have one, do you?"
"Cancelled that appointment the second you sent me the dossier. You?"
"Call me old-fashioned, but I was always rather squeamish about brain surgery."
"Way I hear it, it’s more like getting your ears pierced. One solid thunk, bada-bing bada-boom, you understand Swahili now."
"Is that supposed to be an encouraging thought?"
The Boss grunted down the phone. "Heck if I know, Michael. We’d better chase this up over here. Give my best to your wife and kids."
"And mine to yours. Good luck."
Date Point: 4y 6m AV
Cimbrean System, the Outer Reaches
Miranda King
She had known that stasis would feel like no time had passed at all. And it had been the cheapest way to travel, in a ship that was little more than a warp engine and a stasis chamber with a basic control console. Punch in the co-ordinates, hit the big button, arrive.
When she hit the button, she was surrounded by the simple functional hangar of the Auspice of Prosperity’s basic shipyard.
A subjective eyeblink later, Cimbrean was a blue-green-white trinket, perfect and beckoning so close in front of her.
She was so struck by its beauty, by how much like Earth it looked, that she didn’t notice the alarm at first. But she couldn’t ignore the urgent text that filled the forward monitor, nor the understanding of its meaning that her translator frantically thrust into her brain.
!+ALERT: GRAVITY SPIKE+!
She looked up as a ship - a sleek steel crescent blade with an ugly insectoid component to its design, thundered silently past her starboard beam, turning and decelerating.
The depth of her stupidity hit her. If the galaxy as a whole knew about Cimbrean, then of course that meant so did the Hunters.
She had delivered herself to them on a plate.
When the swarm-ship of the Brood-Of-Bloody-Fangs took her on board, they had made every appropriate preparation that they could think of. The charge would be led by five Gammas, each armed with fusion blades. They would blow the tiny craft’s airlock off its mountings and storm inside. With speed and pack-work, the hated deathworlder would die too swiftly to strike back.
They did not anticipate that Miranda would attack them first. The instant her craft landed, she blew the explosive bolts on the door and charged before they were even lined up and ready to begin the assault, wielding part of her chair as a crude club.
She killed nine of them.
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