Correlated Parlays Explained: What It Means & Why You Can ...

The REAL Greatest Short Burn of the Century

Disclaimer from Quora: A true short squeeze is a fairly rare event. There are probably 100 predicted for every 1 that occurs.*
There needs to be an unexpected positive event. This could be a huge earnings surprise, a takeover offer, new patent, drug approval, etc.
Unscrupulous stock promoters (PUMPERS) often dangle a potential short squeeze as a carrot to entice inexperienced investors to buy a bad stock. For instance, you will find predictions of a “massive short squeeze” on virtually every message board for every penny biotech stock. If you point out that there is insufficient short interest for a squeeze, the promoters just add lies about “naked short selling”.*
There, nobody sue me for the pennies I have. The following is all for entertainment purposes only:
The intro:
Sup gamblers. Feel bad about missing the gain train on TSLA? Fear not - something much greater and stupider is here.
You know Citadel? The MM that took all our money today? Well now we finally won’t be at the mercy of the MMs. Instead, we’re going to temporarily join forces with the Galactic Empire and hijack the death star.
Our choice of weapon... $GME.
The setup:
Huh?? Isn’t GME an absolute piece of trash stock? NO (will explain below), and even if it is, it's not entirely relevant. The this turn around is going to make TSLA's short burn look like warm afternoon tea.
Why? Well, most short squeezes are mostly math. This one is special because we have math AND great underlying news.
To be clear, this will happen whether or not we participate. I prefer us idiots to be a part of history. Here’s what’s up:
Short interest:
GME currently has between 85% - 99.8% short interest, depending on what site you use. For context, 20% is already considered high as the moon. TSLA and NFLX were around 30-40% at their peak. But GME’S ACTUAL SHORT INTEREST IS OVER 110%. In case you think I’ve gone nuts, look below:

Shares Outstanding (June 2) = 64.8M
Total = Public Float = SO - IS = 55.8 M
Total = Adjusted Public Float - Ryan Cohen = 49.6M

Shares Shorted (9/2) = 55.7M

% Shorted (Total Shares) = 86%
% Shorted (Float) = 99.8%
% Shorted (Adj. Float) = 112.3%

This is unheard of. Also, the short interest ratio/days to cover is 16 DAYS right now. Shorts are beyond trapped in their position. And the insiders? They won’t sell. In fact.. they’ve been BUYING.
Fine, what if the shorts are correct? They’ve been printing for 5 years. Ok fellow gamblers, here’s where the real DD comes in. The reversal:
3 big things will cause this reversal. Ryan Cohen, retail option buying, and Kenny G (Citadel) himself.
Who’s Ryan Cohen?
Ryan Cohen sold Chewy in 2017 for $3.3 billion. He poured most of his money into Apple and Wells Fargo, saying he hates diversification and only goes all in into things he has high conviction in. Cohen is a Buffet-like investor. He is the largest individual owner of AAPL, and has sat on his hands doing nothing for 3 years.
Until last week… he went long on $GME.
Who cares right? He’s just another gambler like us willing to lose money. Not in this case… RC is special due to his expertise in e-commerce. He understands how a smaller company can compete against Amazon and Walmart despite heavy competition. THAT, combined with his hatred against diworsification makes his interest in GME a bit special.
RC can spin this into an e-commerce/tech company, which would make Wall Street drool from their mouths. He’s already caught the attention of a few people, hence the recent 75% run up since the RC announcement.
RC only needs to disclose his investments every 10 days. If he’s been buying since 8/31, we won’t know until this week.
Add to that, the original contrarian Michael Burry found that 90% of stores were free cash flow positive before COVID. GME’s balance sheet is healthy with $100M in net cash (around $500M cash and $400M debt), so they aren’t going bankrupt anytime soon. They also added 2 more activist investors, Kurtis Wolf and Paul Evans, who were nominated by Hestia Capital Partners and Permit Capital Enterprise Fund, to turn the ship around.
All this meaning, prominent figures have sKiN iN tHe gAmE, and if needed (unlikely) they have more cash to see it through.
Second and third, degenerate gambling retail robinhooders + CITADEL. Told you we’re going to work with him this time.
Thanks to MMs literally not using their brain and relying on ze maths to configure their entire business, we can take advantage of them sleeping at the wheel for a few seconds, and cause them to ram into GME for us.
It looks like this: RH Call Option buying -> MM Delta hedging/share purchase -> short squeezing -> Greater retail/RHers price action chasing/call option buying -> MM Delta hedging/share purchase -> short squeezing -> Institutional and new channels flip the script -> GME to $400+ -> cash out.
By the way. This is NOT a pump and dump. This is a kick in the shorts’ teeth. The stock will STAY HIGH.
For reference: if $GME was trading at the same P/S multiple as $CHWY, the share price would be $420.
Maths:
On being delta neutral - quick refresher from a WSB classic:
“Part of the reason we see outsized moves is when a stock starts moving the dealers who are short the calls need to buy more stock to hedge. This can easily double the amount of buying pressure out there and lead to very exaggerated moves.
As the stock goes up, so does the delta of the stocks calls and dealers who were originally perfectly delta hedged before the move effectively become short the stock as it moves higher so they need to buy more stock to “hedge up” or flatten their exposure/risk."
Remember, since GME is literally 99.8% of float short (ignoring RC’s shares for now) they currently HAVE LESS THAN 50,000 SHARES IN LIQUIDITY.
https://iborrowdesk.com/report/GME
As of writing this, delta on average is around 0.200, give or take. Higher for near dated (0.395) lower for long dated (0.195). Let’s be conservative and call it 0.2 for the time being. So now, for every call option I buy, MMs need to delta hedge with 20 shares.
Here’s where it gets insane:
If $100,000 in calls are bought from RH, Citadel is forced to buy the remaining 50,000 shares. I’m using 10/16 $15C for this example. This is an insanely small amount of money, especially with Ryan Cohen, retail idiots, and the rest of the SeekingAlpha vultures waiting for this play. It’s a ticking time bomb waiting to happen.
Let’s say Burry wakes up and decides to drop $600,000 in call options. This is going to force Kenny to delta hedge 300,000 in GME shares. When there are only under 50,000 shares available in PUBLIC FLOAT. This has NEVER HAPPENED BEFORE IN HISTORY. In an accidental squeeze (KBIO, VW), the shorts can’t buy back and get priced out momentarily. Pump and dump. Not what's happening here.
In a contrarian bet leading to a squeeze, shorts bail their positions and the stock STAYS HIGH (TSLA, PTON). The stock is no longer being artificially suppressed, and the shorts are NOT going short again.
To tell you the truth, I don’t even know how far this is going to blow up, since there is literally no historical precedent for this. I just know things are about to get very very insane.
Now also add in the fact that GME is at a 5 year low, which means shorts can be largely satisfied with their gains, and are comfortable covering their shorts. Which, as a reminder, they have to BUY back.
-Cut to Ryan Gosling toppling the Jenga pieces-
The timing:
Alright, if you’ve read up to now, I can assume you’re in. IV is off the charts right now. That’s what happens when a stonk goes up 75% in a week. Sorry, but the Ryan Cohen news is actually big news.
PRE-EARNINGS BET
There’s no idea how the call will go. So place your bets if you think it will go well. If $GME absolutely misses the mark, this DD is worthless. BTW GME flopped the last 2 earnings - that's why there have been no big gains. Proceed at your own risk.
Few things I’m betting on:
First, GME beats earnings. All gaming companies, Nintendo, Sony, ATVI beat due to COVID lockdowns. Same store sales should be flat or up, with 300 less total stores. $GME is expected to post a loss of 1.27 EPS. That's way too low.
Second, activist investor activity. Cohen is sharp as a knife and will make sure things get aligned correctly. He's more financially oriented than most foundeCEOs. He can probably recite CHWY's balance sheet to you off the top of his head, and he understands the investing environment (bad IPOs, interest rates, SPACs). Meaning, he's not a gung ho YOLO Masayoshi / Grant Cardone coked out founder. He's disciplined. Yea I did some stalking... Well you know I had to.
Third, positive news cycle due to Console Cycle: http://charts.stocktwits.com/production/original_240233258.jpg
If you’re wondering why fund managers aren’t covering and going long, remember that they have a JOB. They can’t make contrarian bets at the risk of looking idiotic. Cohen and Burry can because they own their own money.
They can talk about how $GME is going to be Blockbustered. Only one problem - GME’s Netflix… is GME itself. By the way, VW was also heavily shorted during a recession because everyone thought they would be bankrupt. Jus sayin.
AFTER EARNINGS
If GME rockets after earnings, the short squeeze has started and we can pile on weekly 10-20% OTM options to force KG to delta hedge by buying shares, ad infinitum: see $TSLA.
If GME tanks, buy cheap options in anticipation of the short burn.
The trade:
In order to capture the biggest upside, the highest strike call option is best. Remember when TSLA was going up so fast they didn't even have existing options to match the parabolic gains? Same will happen here. We only have $30Cs now, so these will have to do.
15 Jan 2021 $30.00 C.
Also, since we don’t know when GME will skyrocket, this gives you time to capture any squeeze that happens.
16 Oct $15.00 C.
This lets you capture more asymmetric upside in case the squeeze happens quickly.
LAST, and timing is crucial here. ONLY WHEN I get the confirmed signal that the squeeze is happening, I will pound weeklies 10-20% above strike price. Again forcing Kenny to hedge with shares, causing shorts to cover and BUY back, increasing the delta of the call, getting retail and institutional attention, buying more calls/shares, delta hedge, shorts cover, ad infinitum.
The weeklies have the highest delta, so Citadel will be forced to hedge the most by buying shares. In other words, we’ll get the biggest bang for our buck in squeezing these.
There is a chance Citadel/MMs switches to buying puts to delta hedge. Like I said, they’re asleep at the wheel for a second, retail will likely ram before they change their algos.
However, once the squeeze takes off, not even Citadel will be able to stop it. In any case, if they do start to buy puts, we can sell the puts as a bonus.
Like dlkdev once said, the only way to beat a rigged game is to rig it even harder.
This is not fraud. There is no manipulation here. We aren’t forcing anyone to do anything. It’s going to happen with or without us. But I want to ride.
Earnings will light the match, but we can add all sorts of gasoline to the fire.
I stole some data/ideas from a couple of different articles on Seeking Alpha/reddit/google/youtube. I’m not claiming credit for this trade, I don’t really care. In fact, I beg you to completely ignore me. I even dare you to short GME. I’ll happily take your money.
TL;DR: $GME is vastly oversold.
GME is TSLA one year ago. GME is AAPL in 2017. Add to that the greatest short burn you’ll see in history, and you’re in for a hell of a show.
Also GME is uncorrelated with the market. It might even be negatively correlated (it was today). It's only worth $500M (3 Bel-Air houses) and fund managers are happy to cut a high risk/low return position. Let your cognitive biases run free.
Ryan Cohen & Michael Burry if you see this - you better buy as much as you can now. When GME gets to fair value of $26B+, you won't be able to take over the company and kick out the backwards exec team. Good luck.
**Edit1: $GME missed and tanked. Not much Cohen can do in 1 week. IV is dead and liquidity is still dry. Get cheap calls while you still can. PLAY IS STILL ON.
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I think Mark Rosewater accidentally hit the nail on the head on the problem with other IPs in Magic on even the best of days

So this morning I woke up to this response to an ask on the Blogatog blog. And just like that Maro manages to put into words a problem that I didn't even notice I had.
There is a laundry list of problems with the current Secret Lair going on. I don't need to add to them and I'm sure very few of you want to hear them repeated. That being said though a lot of these are compounded because of how all of this stuff was handled so I want to focus on one thing that honestly might be the most relevant because it's something that we know will come up when the Dungeons & Dragons crossover comes out but might fly under the radar as it’s less of a dumpster fire than everything else getting attention. That thing being how IPs are handled even when Hasbro isn't looking to take every last cent you worked hard to earn (as rare as that seems).
Every character in Magic, regardless of card type, has both a mechanical and a story identity. Both of them are extremely important because without the former there's no reason to have cards for them and without the latter there's no reason to care about them. One of my favorite Drive to Work podcasts in recent memory is when Rosewater just goes over each and every planeswalker and describes a little bit of their story and a lot about how R&D represents the magic they use in that story in the cards depicting them (Link). Sometimes these identities are in step with each other and sometimes they are at odds but together they make up the Magic characters we know and love (or sometimes tolerate). While some characters start as a story idea and become cards and some characters start as card ideas and become stories, eventually the two have to meet. I honestly think the best representation of this is in the Shadows over Innistrad block with its depictions of Nahiri and Tamiyo (This has nothing to do with my opinions about the block because I wasn't even playing Magic during that specific time period, I just think these specific cards help prove my point).
Both of these cards introduce a brand new color into the color identity of the planeswalker they represent but they do it for precisely the opposite reasons. Nahiri is red-white here as opposed to mono-white like before because it represents how the actions she's taking during this block are volatile, short-sighted, and driven almost entirely by passion and rage. It is a mechanical reflection of an in-story reality. Tamiyo is the exact opposite though. She was put in the story already because she filled a specific role but she wasn't going to get a card because the set was already at its limit for planeswalkers and there were bigger players to represent. The reason she got through is because design realized there was mechanical space for another planeswalker as long as it had a tri-color identity, and then worked with the story department to see what added colors best fit Tamiyo (Source). The card was the primary concern and the reason why Tamiyo as we know her today has the potential to be Bant instead of just Simic or plain mono-blue is because it fit the needs of the set. These two examples demonstrate a simple truth about characters in Magic: no one card or even collection of cards will represent the entirety of a character and nor does it even attempt to. A card only represents a character in that specific instance and that is all it is ever trying to do, anymore and it would be hypothesizing about a truth that is uncertain.
This I believe is actually a wonderful boon of Magic. It creates a kind of feedback loop. The mechanical flexibility of a character allows them to appear in more sets, which allows more cards that can depict more aspects of them, which means we are more endeared to them because they are more familiar and more explored, which leads to them being put in more stories, which requires more cards and more mechanically diverse cards to explore each facet of that character. It's a blessing in disguise that allows us to get a more full picture of what a character is like. That planeswalker podcast I mentioned has multiple moments where Rosewater discusses characters that have never explored a color that he believes they definitely are and it just hasn’t been shown because of the limitations of the cards printed for them up until that point. Two examples being the fact that he believes both Tibalt and Ob Nixilis are black-red even though ironically one has only ever had red cards and one has only ever had black cards. For two planeswalkers that are decently popular (whether it be for good or bad reasons), they have literally never explored more than half of the potential color identity.
So how does this relate to the ask above or external IPs in general? Well, it's simple: crossovers are by their nature temporary. They have to be because if they weren't it wouldn't be a crossover, it would be the status quo. That means they do not have the flexibility every other legendary creature or planeswalker is provided. They can't do the Omnath thing of slowly acquiring colors as the plot and the sets demand it. They can't be like Teferi where in the story he is consistently white-blue but has just as many mono-blue cards that explore his long history as a mage. Every card has to be treated as a one-off because there's no expectation of a follow-up. The cards have to be static. Is Glenn a white-blue character? Sure, I don't know, I didn't watch the show because statistically it seems highly improbable that the kind of person who likes a fantasy trading card game where you duel as a wizard would also like a gritty gory live-action zombie show well past its prime. But his card definitely isn't. And in a Magic set it probably wouldn't be. Because he's a legendary creature they would know they can afford making a card that doesn't fully explore him because later down the line they can make another card that truly does his Azorius parts justice. And if they couldn't they'd make a card that is truly Azorius or scrap the idea the character is a white-blue character. They could always just make a new card or even character for that design if they really like it after all.
You can't do that in a crossover. You have to provide a color identity that not only correctly explores the character but also appeases the IP holders. And you can’t make a new character to fit new design space since every character belongs to an IP you don’t own. Color identity is no longer one part mechanical truth, one part snapshot of the character's current existence, but instead just a fun little pop philosophy question. No different than a Hogwarts house, character alignment, or any of the million other "pick a side" ticket drivers pop culture has.
To a certain extent, it's always been that way. But at the very least there was a mechanical backbone to it and it was fluid enough that if you disagreed with that specific reading of a character it wasn't permanent. Heck, at this point Sarkhan Vol has been in literally every color but white and four different color combinations to boot. Even Garruk eventually moved back to mono-green. And because it was fluid the card would have to have a mechanical throughline to justify the change or it wouldn't have been made. I personally do not understand right now why Nissa is Golgari. I won't pretend that I understand it or that I agree with it but I also won't pretend that I think it's a bad decision from a game design standpoint, a color break, a character betrayal or an immutable constant. It honestly makes more sense to me than when she was Simic, both looking at her character as a whole and the current state she was in then and now. But even if I never come to understand it, the card feels Golgari and if it turns up in Modern a couple years down the line after it's rotated out I won't think it's forced because even if I don't understand or remember the context for why Nissa became black-green, the card only represents a facet of her at a specific point in time so I'm not going to think it says anything about any of the dozen or so other Nissa cards that exist and represent other facets of her at other points in time. The card wasn't forced to be mono-green because "it's Nissa, Nissa is mono-green" and it definitely wasn't given purely mono-green mechanics and made Golgari because "this character is black-green right now, this is a card that has to be black-green regardless of what it does."
This is all without even considering the other hand Wizard has to balance. The key reason why new properties are even coming into Magic is to attract people who otherwise do not care about the game enough to buy into it with a product that they will do so for. That's why Adventures in the Forgotten Realms is replacing a Core Set. It will obviously be around the same level of mechanical simplicity and newcomer friendliness. It's to get people who wouldn't jump into Magic at that point to do so. And since gold cards are innately more complex to design than single color cards, and since that complexity directly correlates to more nuance which is important to mapping what complex characters, both in real life and fiction, feel and do, it is likely we are going to get more Glenns. More multicolored cards because of character backgrounds and philosophies, but with mono-color mechanics to create simplicity that allows new players to pick up and play. For the good cards they will mash together one mechanic of each color but for many cards they won't have the space because it will take a bunch of reminder text and we'll be stuck with a blue card that is clearly blue that has white not even because it has a life gain rider but because of a book, movie, or comic you didn't read since it isn't relevant to Magic.
In summary, the concerning thing here is that even when Wizards isn't trying to put less-than-scrupulous principles ahead of its players they're still somewhat failing the game. For crossover IPs color is no longer a reflection of what the character is doing, believing, and experiencing at the moment that they are being represented in by the card, but a summation of all of their experiences, actions, and philosophies. Color is doing a lot more than it was ever expected to do and it's doing it for cards that are going to be simplified to entice newcomers so at a time when color is leaning to be as multicolored as possible to reflect as much as possible, it is going to have mechanics that are likely to be very mono-colored in nature. At the best of times we're going to get keywords shared by the colors represented but often we're probably just going to get cards that don't deserve the colors they have, and don't even use hybrid because that can be confusing and we sure don’t want that. Also, I splurged about how I realized how much I really like that the mechanical space and the thematic space of legendary cards, especially planeswalkers, actually empower and embolden one another and how that's kinda ruined by the broad strokes crossover cards have to paint those they represent with (Probably should have used less planeswalkers now that I think about it but they're the easiest characters to search and categorize on scryfall; if I ever make a follow-up you bet your ass that Niz-Mizzet Reborn is getting used as an example). Basically, remember how Urza, Headmaster just kind of slapped WUBRG on it because he's a very old character that could fit in many different color combinations and the mechanics of the card were so complex that they literally couldn't fit on a single card (or really collection of cards)? Well picture that but it's black-border, the card isn't as fun but just generically good, and the complexity isn't even that worth it.
Thank you for reading.
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Elephants on the Field: Week 2

Elephants

Winning at fantasy means making predictions and acting on them prior to other players. To do that, you don't always have the privileges of hindsight and deduction. You will need foresight and inference. I hope to offer a some good if not somewhat inferential arguments for why some early moves on this weekly (if I have time) post.
Fantasy thinking is often over-obsessed with statistical correlations at the expense of firm causal understanding of what is happening on the field. The forest is often lost for the trees. A combination of understanding the game of football, recognizing interconnected changes that will influence teams, and eye testing the games themselves is the best antidote to the groupthink, herd-mentality of fantasy football expertism which, time and again, proves spotty at best in anticipating changes.
Last week I posted this as "Eye-tested Takes" but I realized that's not what I was aiming for. A variety of posters and services watch the whole game and give you maximally thorough takes on every snap. I won't offer much of an opinion on players/teams I don't watch. I'll always watch enough. However, a lot of what I'll make as the case for picking up (or dropping) a player will be based on obvious things that are happening that rankings-myosis may miss.
There's always an elephant in the room that no one want's to acknowledge. This post gives fantasy advice that accounts for the elephants on the field.

Things I'm right about (so far):

1. Rivers Noodle Arm = Colts Lean into Jonathon Taylor:
With the quality of that offensive line, Mack going down, and Rivers looking like shit, Jonathon Taylor may end-up being a top-5 back this year. TY Hilton and Parris Campbell are going to disappoint you.
A bunch of commenters disagreed, insisting Hines was the guy to get and Taylor as a top-5 was nuts. This is an instance of the eye-test making people too smart. Yes, Taylor netted 22 yards on 9 carries week 1. Who cares, he was great in college (larger sample size) and more importantly, Rivers looks SOOO spent that Taylor is the only obvious bell-cow RB for what is probably the best O-line in the league. You want that. Rivers threw it 25 times in week two (down from 44). Taylor had 26 carries, 2 receptions, 110 yards, and 1 touchdown. It was obvious what had to happen in Indy but fantasy groupthink herded everyone toward Hines.
If you had the audacity to ignore me on this (/s), the good news is there's still time. His trade value has skyrocketed on most charts but he's not quite valued as a top back yet. If you get the feel someone is under-valuing him, don't wait longer because his first 2 TD game is going to make him inaccessible in a trade. The Colts defense is also looking good enough to maintain a lead throughout a game, opening-up more run play calls. (Rivers sucking is going to do that all the time anyway).
And if you still don't believe me, watch his highlights from this week and you'll see why he could be such a focal point. He does a lot of things that coaches like to lean-into: great ball security, adds 2-3 yards to the end of runs, explosive speed when he has big holes.
2.Browns Offense is fine:
Don't panic about the Browns offense. Baker Mayfield looked like trash but the running offense actually looked pretty good at times...Stefanski is the guy you need to believe in... The biggest takeway from the game isn't the Browns offense is bad, its that the Ravens defense is great.
Both Browns running back scored multiple TD's and registered more than 150 yards each week 2. Baker continued to suck and it didn't matter. Stefanski's offense is good and his coaching career is a testament to his talent. All-Ivy-League Football Player. First coaching job was in the NFL. They wouldn't let him leave for 14 years because they knew he was a talent.
So don't run from Chubb or Hunt yet. And if you have them both, start them both and don't feel bad (unless you have a clearly better option like Zeke too...then probably favor starting Kareem Hunt the larger your ppr value, but its a tough call). The Browns are a perfect storm that make both startable: (a) Both Chubb and Hunt have top-5 rb talent and it comes across when you watch them on the field. With good combinations of strength and speed, each one is TD risk on every snap. (b) Sefanski divides snaps very well. Both are getting touches-a-plenty. They just signed they're "back-up" RB to a new contract (I mean, how often does that happen in the modern NFL?). KS also divides snaps by drive, unless a drive gets very long, so even if Chubb is doing well, he's going to give Kareem Hunt a whole drive. (c) starting both is fading Baker which is smart. The Browns are going to increasingly realize that their offense is more effective with Baker doing less. They may even move to Case Keenum (their back-up, legit didn't know that last week) and that's fine for Chubb/Hunt.
I wouldn't run from OBJ or Jarvis Landry yet either, though Baker's ineptitude has got to make you worry. Think about what Minnesota offenses did over the years with Diggs, Theilen, etc. Both OBJ and Landry are going to be solid bets for big-play TD's (like OBJ's last Thursday) here and there but likely not breaking the top-10. Still, the talent ceiling is high with both so a buy-low scenario where you get them in a trade could pay-off if you bet on Stefanski more than Mayfield.
3. Deandre Hopkins is the WR1
Deandre Hopkins will be the #1 fantasy receiver this year... And most importantly, the offensive situation in Arizona is the perfect storm for his fantasy situation. Kyler Murray is good, but he's not working his way through progressions yet.
Hopkins nabbed a TD but only had 9 targets this week. I'll admit that I only watched Kyler Murray's highlights so forgive me if its there and I didn't see it, buuuuut...He's not completing passes to 2nd and 3rd reads. Its one read then run. That's great for Hopkins' stats because the further into the season they get, the MORE Hopkins is going to be involved on plays designed to chuck it to him, no matter what. Hopkins is one of those guys that's always open, and Kyler is a smart player who knows that AND knows he's not good enough yet to start looking for someone else if Hopkins is "covered". That may hurt the Cardinals at some point. But Hopkins is getting fed this season.
And obviously, a rash of injuries at WR has made this look to be a better prediction. Hopkins is already a stud in that offense and he's still learning it. His stock is only going up from here.
Its true the WR's new offenses typically do poorly. A couple of reasons why that's not true of Hopkins: (a) he's physically the most gifted receiver in the league. Randy Moss kicked ass his first year with the Patriots. Some players are talented enough that it doesn't take time, as long as they're smart as hell like Randy Moss or (b) Hopkins is an intelligent dude. He negotiated his own contract and didn't fuck it up. He wants to be G.M. Big brained guy, he'll pick up quickly. You can see that on the field, he's constantly looking back at Kyler to make sure he did the right thing on each play. (c) HOF'er in the WR room: Fitz will get him up to speed fast.
Quick note about Kyler Murray: He's tearing it up. One encouraging thing that you might not see how little he's allowing himself to be tackled. As a fantasy owner, that's encouraging because it suggests he can sustain a high running floor and not get injured. And there's an added assurance that he's putting those slides for zero yards (for example) on tape because the coaches see that too and are more willing to call more of those plays down the stretch. Still, I wouldn't compare him to Lamar Jackson last season yet. Lamar Jackson was throwing TD's to his 4th and 5th read in week 1 against the Dolphins last season. Murray may hit a scheme ceiling where defenses, especially good ones, start to take away his 1 and 2 and contain his run game (though it is strong and he has good vision).

Things I was totally wrong about: zero things!

HA! Next section!

Things I'm not right about yet but pretty soon I will be:

1. Joe Burrow AJ Green is going to be good.
If you watch the game, you see Joe Burrow fitting the ball into tight windows in clutch situations. In fact, he wasn't finding a lot of open receivers, he was throwing the ball well/correctly into great coverage and making lemonade. Also, AJ Green is looking fully healthy and like his old self.
Well, AJ Green was targeted 13 times and caught...3 of those passes for 29 yards. So clearly, the chemistry between them was oversold by me last week. Still, 13 targets is encouraging and so is the Bengals inability to run the ball. No matter how much they try, they're wretched run-blocking always leaves them down late in games and in 3rd-and-forever situations. They just let a rookie throw it 61 times.
Another consideration is that Denzel Ward was covering Green all night:
A.J. Green has had an up-and-down career vs. the Browns. Thursday’s game was on the down side, and it had mostly to do with Denzel Ward.
Green had three catches for 29 yards. Overall, Ward broke up three passes against the Bengals. And according to Next Gen Stats, Ward was making life difficult for Joe Burrow all night, forcing eight tight window passes in 11 targets as the nearest defender.
Green is still pretty low on trade value charts but stands to have a huge upside as Burrow's primary target.
2. Rodgers is back.
...are there really any physical traits that are important to his game that would fade significantly at 36 year's old? I didn't see any missing zip off of his throws. I did see fucking darts getting tossed all over the field into tiny windows.
Aaron Jones is the #1 fantasy RB right now so obviously saying Rodgers is fully back is pre-mature. However, he is impressing with some very, very pretty darts.
Also, the elephant on the field for the Packers is that Aaron Rodgers is a player driven by ego. Not a knock on him, he's just a guy who needs mojo to play at his finest. Maybe it required the stimulation of an insulting draft pick to prod him back into his HOF form. I'm not saying Rodgers can be a top 3 QB this year with Jackson and Murray running so well, but 4 or 5 doesn't seem out of reach.
Rodgers is pff top-graded QB right now btw.

Fresh takes:

1.The Ravens are the best defense in the NFL.
The loss of Earl Thomas is doesn't matter as much as what has been gained with Patrick Queen and L.J. Fort. Queen is incredibly fast and explosive underneath, getting into the backfield and making big plays. And L.J. Fort (top rated pff lb right now) combine to give them rangey-coverage, tackling, and pass break-up ability over the middle they didn't have before which has further weaponized they're depth at CB (Humphrey, Peters, Smith). Peters specifically is a ball hawk that's found a great home in Baltimore; he couldn't scheme well anywhere else but Harbaugh has found a way to give him the freedom to ball hawk. Over the long haul, Harbaugh has maintained a great defense, regardless of departures/changes, for years and years. When he has this much talent, his defenses are typically dominant.
Be warry of starting iffy players against them at any position.
They're worth trading for, I think the turnovedef TD potential makes them worth it.
2. J.K. Dobbins will break-out out as the preferred option in the Ravens backfield.
Mark Ingram and Gus Edwards have both proven to be reliable RB's for the Raven offense. But Ingram is 30 with over 200 carries in 3 of the last 4 seasons. Edwards has been reliable, a home-grown UDFA. But at 238lbs and without elite speed, he's leaving many big runs on the table.
Dobbins didn't attend the combine. But ran a 4.44 40...in high school:
Dobbins posted a 4.44s 40-yard dash, 4.09s short shuttle and a 43.1-inch vertical jump as a high school senior at the event. There are also many reports that Dobbins squatted over 700 pounds.
He has power running balance and break-out speed that NONE of the other backs in Baltimore have. 4th rounder Justice Hill was their attempt of to develop that speed last year but didn't break out.
A couple of elephants make this one a good bet:
(a) Lamar's durability -- right now, he's taking a bunch of carries because he's the only one in their backfield that has the speed to break huge runs. If Dobbins can fill that role, Lamar Jackson can afford to take fewer chances and John Harbaugh can opt to only drop him back to pass 7 times in the second half when they're winning, like what happened in week 2.
(b) that defense -- Baltimore's defense is going to be great enough this year to take over games, making steady doses of run plays inevitable as they'll spend a lot of games up by 2 scores. Yes, they were up like that a lot last year but their only homerun hitter in the backfield was Lamar (see above, Justice Hill wasn't getting it done).
Here's an example: this is a shot from Gus Edwards' 22 yard scamper last week:
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https://preview.redd.it/mhhhpzmkrxo51.png?width=1920&format=png&auto=webp&s=3cdf46ac4bcce3e503729f909c0e787f85459eb9
The Ravens offensive line is good at opening holes like this. While it didn't prove important in this game (BAL was up 30-16 at the time), each run like this where a more explosive player could scored is an opportunity cost for the people calling plays. And its not just points left behind, its points scored while Lamar is watching like a fan. Its points that could allow more aggressive defensive play calling. If you're a coach for Baltimore, you don't necessarily want Lamar to have a gaudy stat-line every week if you're winning. If he can throw 16 passes in a game and then sit-out the 4th quarter, that's ideal from the franchise's perspective (though not so much for Fantasy managers). Each Ingram/Edwards run that coulda been a touchdown means there's more time on the field for Lamar, larger portion of the game where they're not playing a dominant lead, and higher chance that they'll lose because points were left on the field. They need someone else hitting home runs in the running game.
Am I fading Lamar because of all of this? Not yet. Eye test = that guy is a singular talent. His throwing motion is smooth like Vick's, just a gifted, effortless release. He's also great at mostly avoiding contact (though all contact is bad contact if you're his coaches). Great decision maker too. Makes multiple reads on plays. Can't say enough about how great of player he is. Still, Baltimore is well put-together enough that they may be able to functionally win without him. So don't be surprised if, especially approaching the playoffs, Baltimore starts calling plays that don't involve as much Lamar. What's scary is that they may be a complete football team without him and he's the reigning MVP.
Finally, Dobbins had two carries last week. One was for a 44 yard gain where the blocking was good but not nearly as good as the image above. Even if the transition to him isn't fast, he could force the issue like Chubb did his rookie year, gaining 100 yards on 3 carries in a game.
No matter what, the Ravens will run by committee but there will come a point where the player to start out of the trio is Dobbins without a doubt.
3. Minshew is the truth and his team situation makes him a great fantasy player.
Minshew isn't the most talented QB in the league. But above all things, he is competitive and scrappy. The Jags are good but not great so he's going need a lot of that scrappy-iness (lol, just say that sentence out loud, you'll hear it). James Robinson is very good and they're going to lean on him a lot. But when the time for much needed yards and points, it seems like the Jags tag Gardner Minshew II's Id in at offensive coordinator. Minshew isn't likely going to be top-5 qb but he might make the top 10 and is likely easier to get than other top targets.
Part of the reason DJ Chark isn't getting the production folks hoped is because Minshew is effectively spreading the ball around. Good for the jags, bad for fantasy owners. I wouldn't panic.
One of his targets I picked-up to stash is Laviska Shenault Jr. He's getting a legit number of carries each week and averaging over 10 yards per reception. He's an interesting pick-up because he doubles as handcuffs for Robinson. Seems like his carry count could go up to 10ish no problem if the Jags lost Robinson. So pay attention to what position he's listed in your league, scoring rules about how carries count in ppr, etc. But he passes the eye test, very shifty and fast on the field.
4. Teams that are quickly turning into dumpster fires that you should across-the-board fade:
Jets
Gase is the worst. Never underestimate the ability of a shitty boss to ruin a workspace and make everyone fucking hate themselves, even though they're well compensated to play a game for a living. Listen, I know there's always gems on bad teams. But I have high blood pressure. So tuning into games with players I need to play well and watching the offense go 3-and-out 5 times in a row...I'm literally too old for that shit now so I try to stray-away from dumpster fire teams.
Vikings
Kubiak has got some big Stefanski shoes to fill and he's doing a bad job so far. I wouldn't panic about Dalvin Cook yet but another bad couple of weeks and I'd start shopping him. See the Browns thing above: Stefanski may have made the Vikings offense look better than it actually was for a decade. Combine that with the defense whose secondary would be better if they were scare crows and you're looking at a team that can't plan to run the ball for more than a quarter or 2.
Teams to be worried about:
Broncos
Whew, the injuries. They're basically just starting with new team. We'll see how things go.
Detroit
Matt Patricia may have lost this team. And coaches like him don't recover team faith/confidence well in a loss-spiral.
Texans
BoB is going to crash that plane into a mountain while we all watch. Poor Watson, just watching Deandre Hopkins ball-out. One thing you can still bet on for awhile out of the Texans offense; Bill O'Brien is ego- and career-invested in David Johnson doing great things. He'll role with him when he shouldn't to prove to everyone that he was right to trade Nuk. Its dumb. But he's dumb.

Fortune Favors The Bold (FFTB) Predictions

WARNING: What you're about to read is not necessarily good fantasy advice, but things for me to say "told you so" about a week from now. I take no responsibility for any money you lose (and all responsibility for the money you win). Still, Alexander the Great said, Fortune Favors the Bold.
  1. JK Dobbins scores more fantasy points than CEH this week. (This prediction is backed-up by the time-honored tradition of spitting in one's hand and shaking on it so this shit is serious. Its also painful because I'm a Chiefs fan.)
  2. Laviska Shenault scores a running and a receiving touchdown tonight.
  3. Jonathon Taylor is the RB1 this week and its not close.
  4. Danny Dimes throws 3 TD's this week against the 49ers.
I'm probably wrong about most of this shit but FORTUNE FAVORS THE BOLD!
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Thanks for reading! If I continue to be kind mostly right and people find it a good read, I'll keep posting these each week. Good luck!
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EDIT: Thanks for the awards and upvotes strangers! I'll bring the column back next week. Appreciate the comments too, thanks for the banter, shit-talk, and criticism. I'll be spittin in palms again soon.
EDIT AGAIN: Thanks again for the feedback. This is fun and I'm going to enjoy doing it again next week. Some of the comments have suggested that the post doesn't really go out on many limbs. I'll do that more in the future. I've also added an extra section with a few "FFTB predictions" for this week.
submitted by atrophiedambitions to fantasyfootball [link] [comments]

PSA: Why the BI is the better and more valuable event vehicle

A complete analysis of the Bereznyak-Isayev BI-1

Why it is a very unique vehicle that was overlooked, but will soon be rare and highly valued
The BI is an interesting plane, and due to its in-game characteristics, the setup of the event, and the overall attitude of players, I have realized that it is very likely that this will be an extremely expensive plane soon, and that there is a way to get it discounted right now, but it is only viable until the 12th of October. This post is quite long, but I hope you find it as interesting as I did, and if at all possible, helpful as well.
READ ME: There are four sections to this analysis, each which details why this plane is likely to be sought after; read only the part/s which interest you most, as it is quite long (even by TEC standards). View conclusion for TL;DR.
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The most unique gameplay and flight characteristics in War Thunder
From tier I-V there are two basic strategies. Having more energy than the opponent by climbing or staying at high speeds, and turnfighting. Most planes specialize in a certain area while lacking in another another, such as the Fw 190 Ds or P-47s which have great guns, engine power, and energy retention, but sacrifices turnfighting capability and speed. On the other hand we have the A6M1 "Zero" or Spitfire, which can climb well and turn very well, but sacrifice speed, energy retention, and have bad guns. The BI has the capability to do everything that these planes do but better, except it has horrible guns.
Apart from this plane, there are almost none which have good everything, and while the BI has some detriments, it out-preforms every single plane at its tier in every non-weaponry department, especially considering it is at 6.7. The fact that its the only useable rocket plane in the game (RIP Me 163) and it faces propeller planes and early jets means that it has gameplay that is not replicated with any other plane in the game.
In terms of performance, its only detriments come from the fact that it preforms unlike any other plane in the game. You see pilots fly at 100% throttle and dive at 700km/h in this thing then crash because they cant pull up. Compare this to a player who just unlocked their first jet, and starts climbing at 250km/h then tries to dogfight propeller planes. Until then their doctrine was good for propeller planes, but they must learn to adapt to the completely new fighting style. The same goes for the BI. At low speeds it can outturn a Spitfire and Ho 229, especially with flaps. At mid speeds (just under 600km/h) it can pull a sustained 14g, which is nearly impossible save for the Ho 229 and a some Mach capable jets.
At high speeds (600+) The BI is a flying brick, but consider two things. First; it can sustain 750km/h with only 35% throttle, second, it can sustain 500km/h in a climb at 45% throttle and reach 5000m after 2.5 minutes with 60 seconds of fuel left. Compare this to the British 7,000 GE Premium, the Spitfire FR Mk XIVc, which according to the WT climb chart, takes 4 minutes and 45 seconds to reach the same altitude at 100% throttle, so the BI already out climbs it by a considerable margin at 35% throttle, while at 100% it can reach that altitude in 1 minute and 10 seconds, over four times faster. Practically Nothing around these BRs can outclimb this plane, or outrun it either.
It is notable that at low altitudes you get "REDUCE SPEED" warnings around 730 km/h, but it your plane will not rip. Instead, you can go up to 900km/h at which you simply stops accelerating (its your top speed). You dont rip anything at this speed, but your controls are quite sluggish.
Processing img p6mhmqtnuyr51...
At over 600km/h other planes have a maneuverability advantage, but this plane can pull up and cut throttle to stay above them, and now as the enemy has been maneuvering, they are slow, and you can swoop down on them or turn in with them, as at slow speeds you excel. If they try to run away, at 35% throttle you can easily outrun them, so if they turn you catch them, and if they run, you catch them. The enemies best bet is trying to make you overshoot, as the BI's incredible energy retention can be a curse at times, as even at 0% throttle you can convert 800km/h into 2500m of altitude, but it also means slowing down to stay on an evasive enemies tail is hard. You can always pull up and out though, and dive back on them as mentioned before.
With such a powerful engine, it is limited with a 1 minute and 57 second fuel load. This is deceiving, as I have tested the longevity of the fuel at different throttle settings, and it is as many have noted, non linear. For the exact data on how long fuel lasts, check out this post. If the fuel consumption and throttle percentage were directly correlated, you would expect that for 60 seconds of fuel; 100% throttle would last 60 seconds, 10% would last 600 seconds, and 1% would last 6000 seconds, while in reality as it is non-linear, 100% lasts 60 seconds, 10% lasts 6,600 seconds (1h 50m), and 1% lasts for 660,000 seconds (183 hours). At 35% throttle you have about 8 mins of fuel, a respectable amount, and as mentioned above, you can sustain 750km/h. This engine is even more powerful than the other rocket plane, the 163, but the 163 is at 8.0-8.7 where it faces MiGs and Sabres, while this plane is at 6.7 where it faces P-51s and Me 262s, and it can completely dominate them.
The % of throttle used exponentially increases the fuel used. But this is deceiving, the airframe of this plane creates almost no drag, so cutting throttle doesn't really limit top speed, only makes it take longer accelerate to such speeds. At most throttles the BI can sustain a very high top speed, as it only needs a bit of thrust to counteract what air resistance it does experience, so it can stay at high speeds. You almost never want to use throttles above 50%. The situations in which high throttles can be useful is in a stallfight when you need more thrust to hang in the air a bit longer, if you are at low speeds and need to get the energy advantage quickly, be it getting to a top speed then throttling down, or climbing up to escape low enemies. When hunting bombers do not use full throttle, as at high altitudes your rip speed and controllability decreases significantly, and you will never reach high enough altitudes if you waste your fuel in a 100% throttle and 60 degree climb, you wont have fuel left over, but at 35% you climb slower, but still much faster than anything else, and by the time bombers start reaching your bases, you can easily be at 6000-7000 meters with a good amount of fuel left.
As fuel efficiency is quite important, it would be very useful if someone who is good with data and aeronautical concepts could find the most efficient throttle + angle of climb combination for this aircraft. From what I have seen, 35% throttle at 400km/h is quite efficient and can get you to altitude fast.
Now about its guns. In protection analysis you can compare the damage of AP-I and FI-T, but not HE, and although there is info about the 20mm ShVAK in-game and on the wiki page, no where could I find the muzzle velocities of each round, and much info is from years ago, so finding accurate reliable information was hard. I, along with many players would be grateful if u/gszabi99 could extract the data for the damage and velocity of different types rounds, or if Gaijin would allow us to do protection analysis for every round, as until now the consensus on best belts are based on speculation.
From what I can tell, the HE has a bad reputation. On protection analysis, AP-I does good damage when hitting a critical component, but doesn't do well on wings or the main fuselage. I would estimate that without a pilot snipe or fire, it would take 3-4 shells to the same spot of the wing to snap it, four shells to the tail to break the controls, but only 1-2 shells to destroy an engine. FI-T appears to explode on impact, but does little damage. It would probably take 3-4 shells to the same spot to snap a wing, five to the tail to kill the controls, but four for an engine. Overall, the AP-I seems better, as it appears to have a higher muzzle velocity, is likely to start fires (which can kill much more reliably then the guns damage itself), and pens more, so is more likely to reach the pilot. FI-T can also be useful, but seems to spark more often, and its lack of pen make it useless when hunting bigger planes. For dogfighting it can be better, as snapshots during turning tend to hit flat wings, and while AP-I passes right through, FI-T damages the whole wing. Its lack of pen doesn't matter, as planes that dogfight you are small and lightly armored, and the spread of damage can do more on a hit. If your style is being on an enemies tail and fighting armored and big enemies, AP-I is best for fires, pilot snipes, and killing engines. If you prefer turnfighting, snapshots, and fighting light enemies, FI-T might be best for you.
On the topic of guns, from what I am seeing, the Russian air tree is preforming much worse in the current meta then its contemporaries. From tier I to VI its planes are generally outclassed, with few notable exceptions such as the MiG-17AS and the IL-2s. At low-mid tiers their engine performance and guns are mediocre, and in upper tiers the Phantom is dominant. Gaijin will surely see that people are not grinding out the Russian tree nearly as much as other nations with better planes. I cant predict what they will change to attempt to balance this, or even if they will do anything about it at all, but it is possible that, as we have seen in the past, if a certain thing is underperforming, it will have its characteristics improved, and if it is over preforming, vice versa. I think we can all agree that ShVAKS are underperforming, but the question is whether Gaijin will do anything about it.
It is easily a 7.7 worthy in terms of performance, but its bad guns mean it is 6.7 and faces props and early jets, both of which can do nothing against it if the pilot is smart and does not take unnecessary risks. It reminds me of the He 100 when it was at 1.7. A plane that preforms incredibly well, but as it had guns worse those that of biplanes, it was placed at a br at which it faced biplanes, and nothing could touch it. Good players were in a position where they could not be killed if they played it right, and could shred the enemy team.
Overall it could be argued that it is the best plane at its BR, but it depends on how much you like guns. If you are experienced in nations with bad guns such as Brittan, Russia, Japan, and France, you may like this plane. If you are more inclined to nations with powerful guns, having to adjust to shitty guns would probably not be fun.
Below is a list of pros and cons it has compared to other planes it faces.
Pros:
Cons:
As a summary of its characteristics; it is better then everything it faces, but its lackluster guns make it rare to be able to use its performance advantages to get more than two kills per sortie.
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The setup of the "Strategist" event will make it very rare
There are a few things I have seen about the event itself that are extremely likely to make the BI very rare. First; although we are in quarantine, people are very busy with work and school, and it took around four hours a day for 10 days to get the Merk or the BI. It was also during the work week, so most people could only grind those four hours in addition to the work they already had, and one weekend. If people had a day or two off, they may have been able to grind it then, but Gaijin in their infinite wisdom capped the rewards at 40 per day, so players could only earn 1/6th of the materials needed (3 offensive docs at 80 intel per doc means 40 intel x 6 days). Thus to get it for free you had to participate in an intense grind for the max reward for at least 6 days, and many people didn't have the time. This was bound to make the reward rare, as who in their right mind would spend hours every day on intense grind for a videogame? (Needless to say I am not in my right mind)
The second characteristic which makes the BI rarer is the fact that the Merk comes before the BI, and in addition, the Merk can be exchanged for the BI, but the BI cant be exchanged for the Merk. Go to the Strategist map and you will see what I mean; three docs for a Merk coupon, and the Merk coupon can be exchanged for a BI coupon. If you had the choice between getting a BI or a Merk for free right now, the logical decision would be to get the Merk, because you know if you get the BI, you are stuck with the BI, but if you get the Merk, you have a chance to exchange it if in the end you decide that you would prefer the BI. This means more players will keep the Merk, as well as put the Merk up for sale rather than the BI, because its logical that if you can exchange it for a BI, it would be more valuable because it gives you the chance to get both instead of just being worth itself. It was also believed and repeated by Youtubers covering the event that the Merk would be the better vehicle to sell to make money. Considering the pervious two points, it is odd to consider that in practice the BI coupon is selling for 5 gjn more than the Merk. We will get into the reasons why this happened in the next section, but it has to do with the fact that the Merk appears to be the better reward (as we reasoned logically before), and thus people kept it and neglected the BI, making the BI rarer in the end.
As the Merk was exchangeable for the BI, most people kept the Merk. As of right now there are 9.3 times more Merks than BIs on the market. The last characteristic of the event that will make the BI much more rare is the fact that the Merk will no longer be exchangeable for the BI on the 12th. As we have seen, there are disproportionately more Merks than BIs, and when the possibility to exchange the one to the other stops, there will still be many times more Merks than BIs, making the BI much rarer.
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How players see the BI + how they act in the market
One of the most interesting and hard to measure variables about things like these event vehicles are peoples opinions towards them. Fortunately for me, there are myriads of Reddit and fourm posts from the average player about their feelings on the event, as well as many Youtube posts about the event which most WT players watch, and my own experience in the game, where I played consistently with and against teams full of Merkvas, while in Air battles there were only 2-3 BIs per game, and I was able to talk with players of each to get a general impression of what they think of them.
The first thing to consider is the first impression everyone had when the event was announced. The first thing almost everyone saw was that there is a rocketplane with two shitvaks, only 45 RPG, and less than 2 mins of fuel, and almost every comment about it was that it would be really bad. From what we knew, all signs said it would be true! We had no idea that its flight characteristics would turn out to be practically the best at its tier, it would have more engine power than the 163, and the fuel would be manageable with throttle control. On the other hand, we had the Merkava 3D. This was seen as easily the better vehicle, from first sight is is a very good looking tank, while the BI looked like dildo with wings. On top of that, the Merk boasted the best round in the game, good general performance, part of a Israeli collection, has a good supporting lineup and a great repair cost. Based on this primary info, the BI seems quite bad, just a meme plane, while the Merk seems like a very good vehicle.
Now lets consider the Youtubers. They are good players who had early access to the vehicles, and have quite an influential voice. What they say, especially if many of them agree, would be believed by the majority of their audience, and thus those interested in grinding the vehicles (Especially if it reinforces their first impression). In all the videos of early gameplay and ideas for how to grind the event, the advice that the Merk was the better vehicle, and that to make money it would be best to sell the Merk, was almost universal. Everyone who made a video said that the BI itself was ok, but its guns were extremely frustrating to the point of being almost useless, while the Merk was portrayed as quite good. Now there is a thing to consider about WT Youtubers. As it is usually one of their prime sources of income/favorite hobbies, they play WT a lot, more than the average player and their viewers. As they play so much, they get really good, and for tanks; "No armor is best armor" (Phlydaily). The gun is the thing that matters the most to really good players, and armor is there for if a mistake is made and you are in a position where the enemy can shoot you (Spookston and others). As Youtubers tend to be above average players, they note it has the best gun (round) in the game, and ok survivability. As they are very experienced, they can position themselves so as to not get killed, and with the best round, do really well. But as mentioned before, armor is for if mistakes are made, and boy does the average player make mistakes.
Even in my B1 ter and Tiger H1 (famously OP tanks), I can get penned a lot because I make mistakes. Nearly everyone agrees that the Tiger H1 is OP at its br, almost unpenable if played right, but if a flanking enemy shoots you, you get sniped, or there is more than one enemy to angle against, you are easily penned. It takes a good player to position correctly, to know when and how much to angle, to not ever expose a flat plate. I tend so hear people say that when they play allies they can never pen Tigers, but when they play Tigers they always get penned. The point I am trying to make is that the average player is average, and not having armor to protect them when they fuck up means they die. Look at the OP R3, and yet most R3 players rush a cap and come in guns blazing and get killed instantly. It is a good vehicle, but the lack of armor makes the average player not do great in it. The R3 is similar to the Merk in the fact that they are really good vehicles with bad armor, and while they are great for experienced players who know every spot in the map and how to correctly position by heart, most will just push and be disappointed when they get killed by a sniper every time. Long story short, the Youtubers said that the Merk was a really good vehicle because of its gun, but for most players its just OK if not underwhelming, and the the state of allied 10.3 confirms it. When considering the BI, Youtubers opinions started to change once they had the BI for longer. It started out as being not recommended at all, but slowly they began to learn how to fly it and that it is actually quite fun. This change is the same learning curve we all have experienced with jets. It was a completely new and unique playstyle, and even the really good players had bad first experiences because they didnt know how to fly it properly and use all its incredible performance advantages. Thus, slowly the BI has been enjoyed by those who play it more and more, and consequently, the opinions of the Youtubers and players about it have improved.
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Initial opinions about the BI/in favor of the Merk:
A BI... to fly - War Thunder Napalmratte
🔴First Look - Bereznyak-Isayev BI-1 - War Thunder LiveStream🔴 WhooptieDo
The Issue with War Thunder's events Ash
War Thunder's Event Problem Spookston
War Thunder - Merkava Mk.3D "The Hard Hitting Prize!" Bo Time Gaming
Holding The Line - Merkava Mk.3D War Thunder DEFYN
Merkava Mk.3D - IT IS HERE - Crafting Event "Strategist" Vehicle... RagingRaptor
Players who I had met in-game who had just unlocked the BI crashed or ran out of fuel and ammo a lot, and said that it was ok but its guns were trash and its flight characteristics were very weird.
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Recent positive opinions on the BI:
Day 3 Thoughts - Wargame "Strategist" - War Thunder TheEuropeanCanadian
RUSSIAN SPACE INTERCEPTOR... PhlyDaily
2 Minute Hero The Iron Arminian
The Russian Ohka | War Thunder BI ConeOfArc
Players wo have played the BI for longer now, such as those who have spaded it, appear to get 1-2 kills on average per sortie, then btb to rearm and come back to the combat. Overall they usually get 1-3 kills per game and rarely die. They say that it is very fun once you get the hang of it, and that you can easily outmaneuver the enemy, stay alive, and get shots on target, but the worst part is the 45rpg and bad damage. Even with every shot on target after getting an enemy slow, only 45 chances to shoot limits how much the planes superb performance can be used before a btb.
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Now lets consider value. As the BI was first considered to be trash, the initial expectations of the market were quite low:
Processing img fdugkuukfyr51...
While in contrast the Merk had many buy orders, and for higher prices. This makes sense as people thought that it was much better. As people began finishing the event, they would keep whichever they wanted more, usually the Merk judging by the lack of entire teams of BIs at 6.7. If they wished to sell, they would but up the Merk, as everyone said it was more valuable and would sell better. Thus the Merk coupons came onto the market by the hundreds, while even now there are less than a hundred BI coupons for sale. Now armed with the knowledge of supply of each vehicle, lets look at the current prices of each. The lowest 32 sale orders for the Merk are 80 gjn, while there is a single BI going for 85gjn, then more priced higher. This doesnt make sense, why is the coupon for the supposed better vehicle (which can also be exchanged for the more expensive one) cheaper than the supposed worse one? You could just buy the Merk for cheaper and exchange it for a BI through the Strategist map, why is the price so high? The answer is a fundamental principal of supply and demand, the fact that the fewer of something there is, and by extension the rarer something is, the more valuable it is. As of right now, the advice has been to not sell the BI, but to sell the Merkava, which means everyone intending to sell, either listed a Merk coupon on the market, or is saving it to sell when the price goes up, and much fewer have done similarly with the BI. The only thing keeping them more or less balanced is the fact that you can exchange a Merk for a BI, so their differences in price are limited. But soon the final stage of the event will be over, and this conversion will be no longer possible, leaving a ton of players with Merk coupons on the market, and an extremely limited number of BI coupons. This precipitates a huge inflation in the cost of the BI, because as of now only around 90 new BIs will ever be created, while there are hundreds of Merks that can be redeemed.
As it is such a unique vehicle, and the opinion of those who play it is generally improving, it will likely be highly regarded, and as such drive up its price quite a bit on top of the fact that it is going to be quite rare already. Something quite similar happened with the AU-1 from the last event, but now there much less BIs on the market than AU-1s after 6 months, and the AU-1 is not nearly as unique as the BI!
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Two chances to buy it for cheap
Right now the BI is going for 85 Gajouble Roubles, but if you are interested there are two ways to pick it up for less. Unfortunately, as it was an event vehicle, there is no way to get it for free anymore, and the limited supply means that the price will only go up as it gets rarer.
The first method is one I thought up and made a post about earlier which you may have seen. It involves buying the Merkava, which due to saturation is going for 5 gjn less than the BI, then going to the Strategist crafting map and converting your Merkava into a BI. Its easy and saves you 5 bucks, but if you want to do this you better hurry, as the event ends in a few hours and you wont be able to exchange it for a BI any longer.
The second method is less sure, but will probably work. As the anniversary sale approaches, sellers in the market, including the sellers of the BI, will want money to spend during the sale, and thus will sell their vehicles for lower prices instead of holding out at a higher price. If the sale is really good this year, then the price will lower more because they will really want the money to buy the packs on sale. The drawbacks are that from now to the sale the price could rise substantially and even with the lowered price cost more then you can get it for now, and if the sale is bad, then the price of the BI wont lower.
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Conclusion (TL;DR)
After looking at all aspects of the event, the behavior of the players, and the vehicle itself, I have found that it is a very fun and good vehicle if used right, and that it is more unique than any other vehicle on the market except the E 100 and the P-59, all of which offer a completely unique experience that can be replicated by practically no other vehicle in game. The Merk is has a good gun and looks good, but is not that unique, while the BI is very fun.
In terms of value, the BI is already much rarer than the Merk, and its cost on the market will soon increase to surpass the Merk by far. If you are interested in it, I would recommend acquiring it soon before it gets too expensive.
If you have a still have a coupon and are deciding which vehicle to redeem; first consider your current experience with top tier American tanks. If you enjoy that type of combat, would like an addition to your top tier lineup, or want to use this tank to grind tier VII, the Merk offers what you want. If you dont play high tier ground RB and dont have a lineup at that BR, want a vehicle that offers significant advantages over the enemy, and want to have fun and not stock grind, than the Merk may not be for you. If you want a vehicle that offers an experience unlike any other in the game and you find outmaneuvering your opponents fun, the BI may be for you. You dont need a lineup, you dont need to suffer a bad stock grind and horrible team composition, and you dont even need to have any Russian planes, you can just get it and start flying.
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Afterword
Truly the best reward is the Lübeck F224. A decent amount of grinding to get a quite good vehicle, although because Gaijin didn't design Naval battles to be fun no one plays them. If they added some more good sea premiums I am sure they would revamp naval because they would have an incentive to do so. It could be fun as well if low tier sea grind wasn't so terrible.
The worst reward is easily the half track. At such a low BR, battles are rarely fun. The vehicle itself may be iconic, but if it was the 75mm variant at a higher BR I would be much more inclined to get it.
If I were to design the event there are a few things I would change. I would still want it to be necessary to grind so people would play and get these rewards on top of normal tree grind, a win-win, but not to much to burn out the participants. Ideally, there would be two tiers of reward instead of three, the first with the 75mm variant of the half track or the Lübeck. This way there are two good vehicles to choose from for a lesser grind, and people are happier for it. It may also entice more players to get into naval. The second tier reward would be the BI or the Merk, as these are good vehicles and the grind is just right. In addition only tier III and up would be allowed, no more sealclubbing innocent new players with the B1 ter or F4U 1A. In addition to these rewards I would make gameplay more important in getting the rewards. When I was grinding, I could drop a single bomb from my 264 and be AFK the whole match and get enough activity for the reward, but in a fighter I needed more than one kill to do that, and you don't have the option to climb into space as you need to fight for activity. There was a pitiful reward for actual performance, the assault groups, and even then you only got it if you got first place. I would make the event last slightly longer as well, and perhaps add another reward to each tier to make there be good variety and represent minor nations. Thus players would be satisfied to get one or two of their preferred vehicles, while those set on hardcore grind could get all three tier one rewards and one tier two, or two tier two rewards and one tier one reward max.
I procrastinate writing my essays for school by writing an essay for WT, ironic.
Some information I referenced may have changed slightly between me writing it and you reading it, for example, it may be after 12:00 GMT on the 12th, so exchange of coupons will no longer be available, and the market data may have shifted a bit.
As of the exact moment of posting the event will end in 6h 32m. It is 11:27, I have school tomorrow, and I am tired so I will check responses in the morning.
If you have read my whole paper, good job! (If you just scrolled here, see the TL;DR in the previous section) I wrote it because I want to help any players who are interested as well as players who have the BI and are learning how to fly it, and because what I saw and learned seemed very interesting to me, and I wanted to share it with others who may be as interested about this event. If I am wrong in a certain area, or some info is not up to date, please let me know.
submitted by Slipers to Warthunder [link] [comments]

Here is how to play the altcoin game - for newbies & champs

I have been here for many previous altcoin seasons (2013,2017 etc) and wanted to share knowedle. It's a LOOONG article.
The evaluation of altcoins (i.e not Bitcoin) is one of the most difficult and profitable exercises. Here I will outline my methodology and thinking but we have to take some things as a given. The first is that the whole market is going up or down with forces that we can't predict or control. Bitcoin is correlated with economic environments, money supply increases, safe havens such as Gold, hype and country regulations. This is an impossible mix to analyze and almost everyone fails at it. That's why you see people valuing Bitcoin from $100 to $500k frequently. Although I am bullish on the prospects of Bitcoin and decentralization and smart contract platforms, this is not the game I will be describing. I am talking about a game where you try to maximize your BTC holdings by investing in altcoins. We win this game even if we are at a loss in fiat currency value. To put it another way:
If you are not bullish in general on cryptocurrencies you have no place in investing or trading cryptocurrencies since it's always a losing proposition to trade in bubbles, a scientifically proven fact. If on the other hand you are then your goal is to grow your portfolio more than you would if holding BTC/ETH for example.

Bitcoin is the big boy

How the market works is not easily identifiable if you haven't graduated from the 2017 crypto university. When there is a bull market everything seems amazingly profitable and things keep going up outgrowing Bitcoin by orders of magnitude and you are a genius. The problem with this is that it only works while Bitcoin is going up a little bit or trades sideways. When it decides to move big then altcoins lose value both on the way up and on the way down. The second part is obvious and proven since all altcoins from 2017 are at a fraction of their BTC value (usually in the range of 80% or more down). Also, when BTC is making a big move upwards everyone exits altcoins to ride the wave. It is possible that the altcoin market behaves as an inversed leveraged ETF with leakage where in a certain period while Bitcoin starts at 10k and ends at 10k for example, altcoins have lost a lot of value because of the above things happening.

We are doing it anyway champ!

OK so we understand the risks and just wanna gambol with our money right? I get it. Why do that? Because finding the ideal scenario and period can be extremely profitable. In 2017 several altcoins went up 40x more than BTC. But again, if you don't chose wisely many of them have gone back to zero (the author has first hand experience in this!), they have been delisted and nobody remembers them. The actual mentality to have is very important and resembles poker and other speculative games:
A certain altcoin can go up in value indefinitely but can only lose it's starting investment. Think about it. You either lose 1 metric or gain many many more. Now that sounds amazing but firstly as we said we have the goal to outperform our benchmark (BTC) and secondly that going up in value a lot means that the probability is quite low. There is this notion of Expected Value (EV) that poker players apply in these kind of situations and it goes like that. If you think that a certain coin has a probability let's say 10% to go up 10X and 90% probability it goes to zero it's an even bet. If you think that probability is 11% then it's a good bet, a profitable bet and you should take it. You get the point right? It's not that it can only go 10X or 0X, there is a whole range of probability outcomes that are too mathematical to explain here and it doesn't help so much because nobody can do such analysis with altcoins. See below on how we can approximate it.

How to evaluate altcoins

A range of different things to take into account outlined below will form our decision making. Not a single one of them should dictate 100% of our strategy.

Basics

It's all about market cap. Repeat after me. The price of a coin doesn't mean anything. Say it 10 times until you believe it. I can't remember how many times I had conversations with people that were comparing coins using their coin price instead of their market cap. To make this easy to get.
If I decide because the sky is blue to make my coin supply 100 Trillion FoolCoins with a price of $0.001 and there is another WiseCoin with a supply of 100 Million and price of $1 then FoolCoins are more expensive. - Alex Fin's Cap Law

Fundamental analysis

This is done usually in the stock world and it means that each company has some fundamental value that includes it's assets, customers, growth prospects, sector prospects and leadership competence but mostly centered in financial measures such as P/E ratios etc. Valuation is a proper economic discipline by itself taught in universities. OK, now throw everything out of the window!.
This kind of analysis is impossible in vague concepts and innovations that are currently cryptocurrencies. Ethereum was frequently priced at the fictional price of gas when all financial systems on earth run on the platform after decades (a bit of exaggeration here). No project is currently profitable enough to justify a valuation multiple that is usually equal to P/E in the thousands or more. As such we need to take other things into account. What I do is included in the list below:

Relative valuation

One of my favorite ways to value altcoins that is based on the same principle in the stock market is to look at peers and decide what is the maximum cap it can grow to. As an example you take a second layer Ethereum solution that has an ICO and you want to decide if you will enter or not. You can take a look at other coins that are in the same business and compare their market caps. Thinking that your coin will outperform by a lot the top coins currently is overly optimistic so I usually take a lower valuation as a target price. If the initial offering is directly implying a valuation that is more than that then there is no room to grow according to my analysis and I skip it. Many times this has proven me wrong because it's a game theory problem where if many people think irrationally in a market it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy. But since there is opportunity cost involved, in the long run, getting in initial offerings that have a lot of room to grow will pay off as a strategy.

Sector prospects

In 2017 the sexiest sector was platforms and then coins including privacy ones. Platforms are obviously still a highly rated sector because everything is being built on them, but privacy is not as hot as it used to be. In 2018 DEXes were all they hype but still people are massively using centralized exchanges. In 2020 Defi is the hottest sector and it includes platforms, oracles and Defi projects. What I am saying is that a project gets extra points if it's a Defi one in 2020 and minus points if it's a payment system that will conquer the world as it was in 2017 because that's old news. This is closely related to the next section.

Hype

Needless to say that the crypto market is a worse FOMO type of inexperienced trigger happy yolo investors , much worse than the Robinhood crowd that drove a bankrupt company's stock 1200% after they declared bankruptcy. The result is that there are numerous projects that are basically either vaporware or just so overhyped that their valuation has no connection to reality. Should we avoid those kind of projects? No and I will explain why. There are many very good technically projects that had zero hype potential due to incompetent marketing departments that made them tank. An example (without shilling because I sold out a while back) is Quantum Resistant Ledger. This project has amazing quantum resistant blockchain, the only one running now, has a platform that people can build tokens and messaging systems and other magnificent stuff. Just check how they fared up to now and you will get the point. A project *needs* to have a hype factor because you cannot judge it as normal stocks that you can do value investing like Warren Buffet does where a company will inevitable post sales and profitability numbers and investors will get dividends. Actually the last sentence is the most important: No dividends. Even projects that give you tokens or coins as dividends are not real dividends because if the coin tanks the value of the dividend tanks. This is NOT the case with company stocks where you get dollars even if the company stock tanks. All that being said, I would advice against betting on projects that have a lot of hype but little substance (but that should be obvious!).

How to construct your portfolio

My strategy and philosophy in investing is that risk should be proportional to investment capital. That means that if you are investing 100K in the crypto market your portfolio should be very different than someone investing 1K because 10% annual gains are nothing in the latter while they are very significant in the former. Starting from this principle each individual needs to construct a portfolio according to how much risk he wants to take. I will emphasize two important concepts that play well with what I said. In the first instance of a big portfolio you should concentrate on this mantra: "Diversification is the only free meal in finance". In the case of a small portfolio then this mantra is more important: "Concentrate to create wealth, diversify to maintain wealth". Usually in a big portfolio you would want to hold some big coins such as BTC and ETH to weather the ups and downs explained in previous paragraphs while generating profits and keep progressively smaller parts of your portfolio for riskier investments. Maybe 50% of this portfolio could be big caps and 10% very risky initial offerings. Adapting risk progressively to smaller portfolios makes sense but I think it would be irrational to keep more than 30% of a portfolio no matter what tied to one coin due to the very high risk of bankruptcy.

Conclusion

The altseason is supposedly coming every 3 months. Truth is that nobody can predict it but altcoins can be profitable no matter what. Forget about maximalists who are stuck in their dogmas. Altcoins deliver different value propositions and it makes sense because we are very far from a situation where some project offers everything like Amazon and we wouldn't even want that in the first place since we are talking about decentralization and not a winner takes all and becomes a monster kind of scenario! Some last minute advice:
P.S If you find value in reading this and want more weekly consider subscribing to my newsletter here
submitted by aelaos1 to CryptoCurrency [link] [comments]

[OC] A.J. Brown compared to rookies with similar seasons, a Jason Moore take.

Jason Moore take: A.J. Brown is my fantasy MVP.
Jason Moore of the fantasy footballers just announced A.J. Brown as his fantasy MVP for the 2020 season in their episode yesterday. To support his claim he used a list of players that scored within one fantasy point per game of what A.J. Brown averaged his rookie year (11.9 ppg). I wanted to take a look at this list to see how each of these players performed in their sophomore season and see if I could come up with a conclusion based on the stats I could find.
I mostly did this as I took A.J. Brown in the 5th round as my WR3 because he fell to me. I didn’t have any plans of drafting him, but I felt that the 1 round drop was enough for me to take a gamble on him. I don’t really know if it was a good pick or not and want to use this research to maybe dispel some of my own uncertainty.
This is the list that Jason Moore gave:
At first glance there are some huge names on this list, potential future hall of famers, superstars with quite a few years left, players who have a chance at becoming superstars, consistent performers throughout their career.
But there are also guys like Kelvin “eating himself out of the league” Benjamin, Eddie Royal, and Michael Clayton. Who were all let downs.
It looks to be a pretty good list which gives Brown a high chance to succeed, but it is not a sure fire given he will.
I am now going to look at how many fantasy points each player scored, their points per game and as which WR they finished.
The Stats:
Odell Beckham J.R. (2015):
Anquan Boldin (2004):
Michael Thomas (2017):
Mike Evans (2015):
Michael Clayton (2005):
Mike Williams (2011):
Kelvin Benjamin (2016):
Keenan Allen (2014):
Marques Colston (2007):
Eddie Royal (2009):
AJ Green (2012):
Amari Cooper (2016):
Calvin Ridley (2019):
Julio Jones (2012):
Averages:
Conclusion:
Taking the stats of the players that Jason Moore named it really does nothing to put my mind at ease. Players on this list have finished as high as WR4 and with 271 points, but also as low as WR87 with 53 points. The average isn’t too much better. All average totals are lower than what A.J. Brown had in 2019, except for receptions. This could honestly be pretty realistic as Brown is expected to take a bigger part in the offense which should see his reception total increase, but he is also expected to regress back to the mean with his historic efficiency totals. This means lower yards per reception which can definitely lead to fewer total yards.
In order for him to have a successful season he either has to see many more receptions with much lower efficiency. This seems unlikely to me. Over the past 5 seasons the Titans number 1 receiver has averaged 92 targets, which is only 8 more than last season. So in order for Brown to truly be a fantasy MVP he will have to retain quite a high efficiency throughout the season with slightly more target/reception totals.
Last season was a tale of three stories for Brown. The first 6 weeks he played with Marcus Mariota under center and was the WR47 during this time span. From week 1 to 12 he played 59.7% of the snaps and was WR37 in this time span. From week 7 on wards till the end of the season Ryan Tannehill was the starter, with Tannehill AJ Brown was the WR3. Lastly after their bye AJ Brown saw an uptick in snaps and sat at 85% from this time on wards he was the WR1 over Michael Thomas. (this is taking week 17 into account in which Thomas basically only played 1 quarter)
Having made this pick I am still not quite certain how to feel about it. The lows are very low and the highs are very high. Obviously each team has a different playstyle and each scenario is different for every receiver which means there is not much correlation. All this has really done has made me see him even more as a boom - bust player as he has the potential to be a top 6 WR, but so many things have to go right for him. It might honestly be more realistic to bet on him landing outside the top 24 WR than it is to expect him to be a top 12 WR.
One thing that I do know is that I won’t be playing Brown against the Denver Broncos in week 1, but I will be watching his game closely with excitement. Hopefully after the first week some of my worries can be put to bed.
Averages taking only active players:
As a bonus I wanted to only take the active players of the list that Jason Moore provided. I believe this will skew the data much more in Brown’s favor and it wouldn’t be the fantasy football subreddit if we didn’t just look at the data that favors our hopeful outcome.
Averages:
Let me know how you guys feel about A.J. Brown this season.
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Please be kind as this is my first detailed research post and English is not my native language so I apologize for any grammatical errors.
submitted by WilliamOrOrange21 to fantasyfootball [link] [comments]

🚨🚨🚨 Incoming rug pull and how to play it for maximum tendies.

Yes I know what you're thinking Autist, as you sit on your gaming chair sipping your choccy milk. "I've seen all these 🐻 posts before and stonks kept going up, printer goes BRRRRRR"
Fundamentals haven't mattered for months, and except for some sharp pullbacks, NQ and SPY have all been on an absolute tear being instabid on every dip.
That's all about the change.
Tldr - bond market/ PM pricing in no deal on stimulus. - Bifurcation of NQ and SPY reached major tipping points. - DXY likely to bounce back strongly on risk off sentiment and foreign central bank action. - macro long term positioning for Inflation playing out across asset class correlations ( RUSSELL and value stocks starting to gain traction )
1. Priced In has become a retarded meme at this point but what does it actually mean? It means basically that the market, chiefly big 💰 / institutions are expecting a future outcome ( or probability of one) and have allocated money appropriately. Historically Fixed Income due to its relative size has been a fairly reliable indicator. Previous crashes this year such as Feb/March crash and the mini NQ/SPY crash in June and July were both foreshadowed by majo high Vol shifts downwards in 10 year bond prices .
Currently 10 year are plumbing new lows at the bottom end of 0.50 percent ( discounting the March flash crash ). This coupled with the meteoric rise in GLD and SLV last night IS NOT A GOOD SIGN. The sharp changes occured directly after stimulus news.
What this means is that Institutions are signalling a chance the package will not be passed on time or in its entirety .
BUT BUT VIX IS DOWN AND EQUITIES ARE UPPIES! yes little autismo, they are but that doesn't mean what you think it does. it's a poorly kept secret that this market is being kept afloat by hedge funds , institutional buying and retail fomo. I don't have the crayons or time to explain it to you but just look at news releases, support level buying and virus/ trade talks pumps. Vix being low doesn't necessarily mean what you think it does either. To oversimplify VIX goes up when more people buy puts. This is typically done to hedge against market drops. Big players don't need to hedge if they SOLD all/ most of their equity holdings and moved it into Bonds/ Gold / Foreign equity. Hedge funds are also notorious for shorting VIX as part of the 'Fed Put " trade . The fact that FI/PM are up while VIX is down makes me more certain of a drop not less as it means Big boys are trying to pass as many bags as they can to retail without spooking them.
  1. There's been a lot of articles on this already so I'll keep it short, you all know how to use Google. SPY since March lows has been split in two like a sociopathic Solomon. There is the big 5 tech and everything else. Currently Big 5 is sitting at 25 percent of all market cap with huge returns over the last few months. This coupled with the performance differential of the other 495 has surpassed levels not seen since the dot com boom. THIS IS NOT SIGN OF A HEALTHY BULL MARKET. Major Bifurcation is the second best signifier of a 🐻 after the technical 20 percent drop level ( which doesn't really mean much) . 🍏 Has now become the largest company in the world surpassing Saudi Aramco. THIS TECH BOOM IS NOT SUSTAINABLE. Most of the apple gains have been from a one of WFH structural shift and Fiscal stimulus ( that now accounts for 25 percent of all disposable income ). If the stimulus bill doesn't pass, Apple is fucked. Just look at the AAPL gains from the last week, do you think this is sustainable?
The common retort on this sub is, " we all know it's a bubble but it will pop in few months, I'm getting my TENDIES while they're hot! "
This sentiment has been thrown around for months all through April to July. Well what if months later is now? What better catalyst for a bubble pop than a Stimulus not going through as planned?
  1. There's been a lot of posts about DXY dying and a lot of it is half true. Currencies are a hard thing to predict but I do want to point out two very key factors that are bullish for DXY. 3a- The entire world, especially emerging markets rely on Dollar inflows from exports to fund imports for key goods, especially commodities (oil etc). Global trade fell off a cliff in March and has barely recovered so where are countries getting dollars? By buying bonds . This was the reason behind the DXY spike to over 100 in March and the reason why the FX central bank swap program was instituted by JPOW. So unless you see global trade rebounding strongly in the very near term ( pigs will fly ) bonds will continue to be bid extremely strongly at auction, supporting DXY.
3b) DXY as has been pointed out is primarily dropping due to Euro strength ( which makes up about 65 percent of the Index). When DXY is compared to the Bloomberg trade weighted dollar index you'll see it hasn't dropped far at all and this makes sense (see 3a above). The Euro bullish trend, along with AUD/USD,GBP/USD and JPY/USD is unlikely to continue much further. Foreign central banks and governments for that matter will not allow the dollar to crater. We've already seen rumblings from the EU and JPY on this front as exports are already in a tenuous position. The last thing foreign companies need is a strong currency to hamper export sales. So I wouldn't bet against the FED, but I sure as shit wouldn't be getting against the ECB.
Summary: I don't see this stimulus playing out on time or in full. Big money is pricing in either a delay or being scaled back substantially to meet Republican demands. I won't go into the specifics of the political theatre because quite frankly it doesn't matter. PM/ BONDS are are all the signalling device you need.
How I see this playing out: The stimulus bill will pass on few weeks after a substantial Rug pull, similar to the 2008 TARP fiasco. I would strongly recommend either holding cash or going long DXY while this plays out. Either buy the dip on GLD/SLV with leaps or go long TLT at like 180c.
Positions : short MNQ 3 units at 10530 and 1 ES at 3220. Yeah got in a little early, wasn't expecting the tech earnings blowout but have the margin to hold.
Looking at GLD leaps for 06/21 300c when we get a pullback ( due to margin calls ).
Thankyou for coming to my TED talk
submitted by DankMemelord25 to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

My experience with The Last of Us Part II

I strongly disliked it. I did not encounter the leaks before playing the game. I did, however, have it spoiled for me that a character named Abby would kill Joel. I didn’t mind being spoiled (and am ultimately glad I was) but I was worried that Joel’s death would go down a certain way: that he would die and Ellie wouldn’t care because the relationship between the two would have eroded leading up to his death. I didn’t play the game right away, instead getting it when it was on sale. I didn’t have any expectations for the game whatsoever. I had no idea what I wanted.
​
Once Joel died I was relieved that it didn’t happen the way I thought it would, I realized it was setting up a revenge quest, and I got excited about the story for the first and last time. I got bored VERY early into the game and tried to figure out why. I realized that I couldn’t tell what the point of the game was and couldn’t immerse myself into it as a result. When I thought about it, the best-case scenario was that Abby would die and with one more dead person in the world, Ellie would return to Jackson with its new status quo having lost Joel and gained nothing. Did I want that for Ellie?
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Did I want her to live happily ever after with Dina? No. Who even is Dina? I knew nothing about her besides the fact that she had some sex with Ellie that one time. She could have died at any point in the game and I wouldn’t have felt like anything was lost or the meaning/message of the story was affected at all. I came to realize that I felt that way about most characters in the game. I was ready to let Naughty Dog show me whatever story they had prepared, but I never felt like they gave me a reason to care about the characters, so I just didn’t. That contributed to this growing sense that the game would never give me something as meaningful and valuable as what it took away. There was no point in finishing the game so there was no point in playing it and doing so became a chore. Whenever this feeling hit its peak, I would just let everything go, keep playing, and keep waiting for the story to pick up. I also think that, to maintain some interest in the story, I tried to reassure myself that killing Abby would be fun and rewarding, even if nothing meaningful came of it. Boy did that backfire on me halfway through.
​
Ellie’s section was drawn-out, boring, and repetitive: the story felt like an excuse to move from combat encounter A to combat encounter B. On the note of excessive violence and “revenge bad,” I genuinely thought in the first half of the game that I was being encouraged to kill everyone that I could (again I thought that revenge, as empty as it felt, was meant to be the motivator and enjoyment ND wanted me to have) and didn’t realize until after-the-fact that Naughty Dog intended to condemn during cutscenes the same violence it encouraged during gameplay. Why would they give me no say in the matter of Nora, Mel, and Owen’s deaths if these events weren’t intended to be satisfying? Their lives wouldn’t matter anyway, they were nobody’s. They weren’t good or bad, interesting or boring, lovable or annoying. They were nothing.
​
Then there was Abby’s section. Like many others, I didn’t like that I had to play Abby and was devastated by the revelation that I had to. Again, I let everything go, and waited to see how ND would make this part of the game worth it. Looking back, Abby’s section of the game is the best part. Lev and Yara are the only characters I grew to care about, and the level design of this half of the game, I felt, was really good. The story didn’t feel great here either, but I think it was better. The sex scene was offensively out of place and gratuitous though. By the end of Abby’s “Seattle” section, I was still very on board with killing her. That’s when everything was well and truly fucked.
​
But seriously, why not kill her? Because of Lev? Lev’s fucked anyway. Having lost his sister, mother, way of life, any hope of acceptance from the people he cared about most, it’s a wonder why the boy hasn’t killed himself. And for what? The helpful, inexplicably (inconsistently) caring lady that he met like yesterday? That matters to him now? Joel and Ellie had months, Abby and Lev had like TWO DAYS. Abby isn’t a good person, neither is she (objectively) bad. She isn’t interesting or boring. She isn’t lovable or annoying. She’s nothing. So, why wouldn’t I still want to take up Naughty Dog’s original offer of meaningless, empty, fruitless revenge when the alternative is nothing. I played so many hours to get it, the least you could do is give me my worthless prize. I’m thinking the game maybe works better if you feel something for Abby. You can’t just “understand” her or “two sides of the same coin” her with Ellie or Joel, because there simply isn’t a logical reason for sparing her, especially when she is just one life among the hundreds you have resigned yourself to ending. You have to feel, and care. I just never felt inclined to.
​
The Seattle Abby-Ellie fight was concerning because it screamed at me that the developers wanted Abby to win the fight, and I didn’t understand why or how that would be satisfying. And then the game should have ended. If the game had ended in Seattle, I would expect it to play much better a second time around and think that it could be vastly improved with restructuring. Unfortunately, it didn’t end. The actual ending is very, very bad. It’s random nonsense that draws out an already very drawn out game. Why does it skip a certain amount of time? Why not more? Why not less? Random. Why California? Random. Why “JJ,” and not “Ellie Two” or “Ellina” or “Nathan Drake” or “First name: Last, Last name: Of-Us”? Random. Why the slaver people? Completely random. Why couldn’t the same fight play out in Seattle?
​
And of course, Ellie lets Abby live. At this point I knew that was where the game was going, and I didn’t like it because it didn’t mean anything to me if Ellie let Abby live. Of course, It wouldn’t mean anything to kill her either, but at least I would have accomplished something that had driven me to stick with the game to the end. Why does it matter that Ellie forgives Abby? Because it correlates with her forgiving Joel? Nope, Joel robbed Ellie of a chance for her life to mean something. Dealing with the massive emotional and existential implications of his actions must have been an unimaginable hurtle to climb over and the story skipped over the year or two in which Ellie grappled with it. Her forgiving Abby, a vengeful murderer, does not carry the weight, significance, or nuance of her forgiving Joel, a selfish man who killed to protect what he cared about. You can tell me she forgives Joel now, but Abby doesn’t have to live for that to happen. So, why? Because it ends the bloodshed? How. Would. You. Know. How many people are going to DIE because Ellie let Abby live to go join the fireflies? Fate is funny that way. If Ellie hadn’t been committed to revenge, Abby would be dead anyway. Sometimes that quest for revenge saves lives, better see it through just in case.
​
Why not? Because she doesn’t deserve to die? Meh. Because of Lev? Screw Lev, piece of shit can’t even warn Abby when she’s about to be enslaved for months (bet you Ellie would have warned Joel if he was about to be enslaved for months). Because Joel wouldn’t want Ellie to kill Abby? Bullshit, Joel didn’t care about anybody else. He would support Ellie in whatever SHE wanted to do. If Ellie loved Dina, and Dina died instead of Joel, would Joel stop Ellie from getting revenge? No. He’d help. He’d want to murder the people who made his daughter sad. I also don’t think Mr. Joel “You keep finding something to fight for” Miller would try to dictate whether revenge or a PTSD ridden life on the farm was better for Ellie. If she said she needed revenge in order to find peace, he’d support her. So, why does it matter that Ellie forgives Abby? Could it be because… killing her doesn’t change anything or matter by the end? Revenge isn’t constructive and can’t satisfy Ellie or the player? Thing is, I knew that from the beginning. I had to find a reason to play the game anyway, but in the end the reason to play through the story was the fact that it was pointless.
​
Why didn’t Ellie forgive Abby before leaving Jackson? Why does the story exist? The obvious answer would be that she needed something (an idea, feeling, or experience) before she could forgive Abby, but I don’t know what that is because I never saw her getting it, whatever it is. Some people will say she needed to understand why Abby did what she did, but Ellie never finds out Abby’s reasons for killing Joel (You think she did, but she didn’t. In the scene where Abby confronts Ellie in Seattle, Ellie says “I’m the immune one, I’m the reason there’s no cure, you want me!” She does not say “Your father is dead because of me.” She does not know Abby’s actual reason for killing Joel, she just thinks Abby is a disgruntled firefly who wanted to save the world.). Some people will say Ellie needed to experience a certain extent of gruesome violence in order to decide she didn’t want any more of it, but that leaves us with the embarrassing coincidence of Ellie not having had enough violence until the very last second, a thousand bodies in. Some people will say it was the memory of Joel that gives her what she needs to forgive Abby. That’s a fine answer, but there is no reason whatsoever for her to have that memory when killing Abby and not a second before. Ellie should not be able to stab strangers in the throat over a year after Joel’s death, but then be unable to kill Abby without intrusive, cathartic memories of Joel stopping her. There would be no meaning in Abby’s death, and there is no meaning in her survival. It also doesn’t matter that Ellie lost Dina and the Baby, because who the hell is Dina anyway. The game’s story is pointless. Ellie’s story is bad and meaningless. Abby’s isn’t bad, but it doesn’t work with Ellie’s, in my opinion.
submitted by SkyGoShire to TheLastOfUs2 [link] [comments]

Focused PvP testing is fundamentally flawed

Huge wall of text. No tl;dr other than beta pvp testing big bad. Read.
On the day of focused PvP testing announcement, I got Beta Access (guess buying Epic Edition and being 2500 was worth it). Initial impressions were very good, I'm really loving the fast paced arenas, which is a nice change of pace from BfA, but the more I played, the more I realized that there is no point in testing anything PvP related until Blizzard fixes up the issues I'm about to list.
- No continental servers. Playing from the EU / Oceania / Asia / Africa will most likely mean you have 200ms at the very least (playing from Hungary, I've an average of 230). This places you 150milliseconds behind minimum of most people who play in NA. Being able to react has a direct correlation with fast paced games. And because of this, unless you play in NA, you can't play to your full potential, which of course feels frustrating, but also it can really change the outcome of the general PvP that is happening. I've had numerous games on my ret pally where I couldn't get crucial spells casted on my teammates to save them, simply because I didn't yet know that a smoke bomb has been popped, but the game did.
- Testing began way too late. The testing started out 8 weeks before the supposed release of the game. While I can see a reason as to why starting later would give less of an edge to the overly competetive players (such as myself), it makes absolutely zero sense when it comes to the integrity of the game. Crucial design issues such as Subtlety Rogues being able to use Shadow Dance on every single stun DR, some classes having way too overloaded kits (such as Monk, Rogue, DH), overtuning / undertuning issues, etc. are ALL over the place. There is no way Blizz will fix this up until 9.1 or 9.2, unless they delay the game.
- Obvious bugchanges still didn't occur, and we also can't reliably track which bugs have been fixed. Stuff like the Rogue Shadowstrike Legendary proccing off itself and Weaponmaster, Conduits randomly ceasing to function after logging out, debuffs carrying over to arenas if you used the queue as team feature (and if you got a quick pop) which can actually lead you to dying in the preparation phase (I carried over a 33k Execution Sentence into a new arena and got oneshotted) are still not fixed.
- Lack of access to equipment and other stuff. None of the loot that is in the game currently is finished up. Even in BfA, you could instantly buy the FINISHED version of the items that are in the game, from all the m+ items to raiding to even PvP. You had your neck at a decent level, and everything was handed to you on a silver plate, for you to test.
We don't have that here. The starter items you get are severely unoptimized (and in some cases, because of the current scaling, broken, case example intellect+versa trinkets you get as a healer), and the only items you can buy are ilvl153 honor pieces with even harder unoptimized stats. Say you wanna gear for crit+vers, which is what I wanted to do with my ret pally - you only have 2 items to choose from: necklace and cloak. That's it. That's your crit vers gear.
The other gear you could get by grinding (m+ and raiding) are not finished at all. There is 0 diversity in the gear you can get, some of it is extremely weak or undertuned, and you don't have all the stat combinations. Because it's not finished, you also don't have items like Seabreeze or Geti'ikku, items that you had even in the BfA beta (even if poorly tuned), which both turned out to be very crucial items for several PvP builds.
You also don't have things like enchants, tertiary stats or gems finished up also. You have no socket slots currently (anyone remember when you could have 3 sockets on a single belt? good times), enchants are clearly not finished, for example you can either buy an intellect bonus for your bracers, or reduced CD on your Heartstone. Where's the option to, for example, apply crit on my bracers? And then you also of course have tertiary stats (leech, avoidance, speed, indestructible, and to a lesser extent sockets), which enchants have tried to integrate through a cloak enchant, but that is one enchant that gives you a bit of stam and 1% in a tertiary stat. With no warforging, these are absolutely useless and have no place in the game (note: I'm not asking for warforging to return, but it just feels wrong to leave those stats in the dust).
And then the worst offenders are the covenants. Obviously, the first issue is that you can't swap between them on the fly (despite you being able to swap gear and talents since Vanilla if you wanted to, but let's not get into that). The second issue comes straight away: you don't have instant access to ALL the Soulbinds. You'll have to quest through your campaign to unlock them, something that people simply won't do. Nobody is testing Soulbinds like Emeni or Forgelite Prime at all. Simply because it's not accessible. What if Emeni's fear at low HP turns out to be extremely buggy, or just plain up overpowered? Nobody knows, because nobody cares.
And then within the covenants, conduits just make me crazy. You only have level one conduits unlocked. Take one of my favorite conduit as an example, Righteous Might. It modifies my covenant spell, Vanquisher's Hammer, to do 100% more damage, and also heal me for all the damage dealt. At the moment, with another spell called Final Reckoning, I can Hammer up to 10k (before Judgment, Final Reck passive proc, Vengeance Aura or Avenging Wrath) if I crit. That means 10k damage and 10k selfheal.
However, at rank15, it deals 250% more damage. So if you do a bit of math,you end up at 17.5k damage, that is also done as a selfheal. Average health pools in arenas (due to everyone being scaled to 213ilvl) is 31k. So I get to do half someone's HP in one button before defensives (but counting in the minimal amount of vers people can get), with no setup, other than waiting for cooldowns. Imagine adding Judgment, Final Reckoning passive proc and Avenging Wrath to that, which by themselves is a 55% damage boost, and 20% extra crit, yielding more consistently higher Hammers. Yeah you end up way beyond 20k - which is also done as a selfheal, so you can literally burst at 10% HP because you just hammer for so high, it doesn't matter. Passive selfhealing has been heavily critized in all classes, when it gets this far - although, to be fair, ret's have no defensives other than Bubble, so in a way, on paper, the healing is fine. Definetly not the damage though.
(As a sidenote, can rets please get Divine Protection instead of Shield of Vengeance and a talent instead of Cavalier that modifies Divine Prot to reduce our magical dmg taken by 40% for 8sec thanks. And no, no movement changes, use Uther's Devotion and Wings / Holy Avenger as defcds ya'll)
But nobody can test it. Because nobody can upgrade their Conduits. And nobody knows how to grind them. I'm considering pushing rank one if the game remains this broken.
- Completely random invites. When it comes to PvP, you want the most skilled and creative players to get into testing, as they are the ones that have a huge encyclopedia in their heads about PvP, they are the ones that care about it the most. However, people of differing skill levels have been invited. Now, I'm not saying that the thoughts of the lesser skilled PvPers shouldn't matter, what I'm saying is...
- Because of random invites, people can only get to play with their partners by chance. The reason why this is so important, is that a comp can function very differently based on how well the players know eachother. Playing Ret Disc Rogue without my buddies is just not playing Ret Disc Rogue, unless you get to play with people like Minpojke, who are simply THAT good at the game (which I had the fortune to do so). But also, this just locks out people from playing a very, very specific setup, as very specific setups are usually tailored to fit the team. Not randoms.
- No specific queing 2s as healdps, no specific queing 3s with a premade. This just creates inconsistencies that lead to faulty games where the details are obscured to the point where certain matchups seem impossible, even though they are possible. A lack of communication and coordination leads to certain defeat.
- BfA toons are WAY stronger than Shadowland toons. Anboni on Youtube has a perfect showcase of this. PvP scaling and Shadowland's poor itemization at it's best.
- A completely out of touch developer team (this part segways from PvP, but I still have points to make). For all the reasons above, but also because some design choices in the game should simply not pass design meetings. Who thought that having to do 627 battlegrounds (assuming 50% win chance) for 190ilvl gear is good design when you can just walk into a +2 that also gives 190 and walk away with better optimized gear pieces? Who thought it would be a good idea to implement the PvP scaling? Who thought that Covenants are a good idea that fit the game? They don't even fit lorewise into WoW for god's sake. As the Maw Walker, who has helped all the covenants, you should be able to call on their power whenever you demand so (talents anyone?), but choose to progress in one of the covenants, and when you're done there, just go to the others? Just because you quested in Highmountain first doesn't mean that Azshara got away with the Titan Artifact in Azsuna. Etc.
The thing is, is that you have a lead game dev whose highest ever rating was 2k back in Wrath, which at this point is not only not applicable, but also shows how much he doesn't care about developing good PvP. - simply because he does not play it. To that you'd say that "he has PvP devs in his team", well, we've pretty much gotten ALL the PvP updates from Ion Hazzikostas. If he would have PvP devs in his team, people who actually play the game and care for the integrity of the game would have realized by now the massive amount of blunders Ion has committed with PvP.
This is also further not helped by the fact that working in Activison-Blizzard is extremely unforgiving. Non-high ranking employees barely live month by month, fulfilling extreme quotas on top of working extra hours and long shifts, with the only compensation being a store mount next to their minimal wage. The manpower and general competency behind this game is in the dust, and it's not going to change unless the leadership is rearranged. I'm betting COVID-19 actually helped a lot of the lower ranking employees, simply because they can get a couple extra hours of freetime in their lives, sparing time off of travelling and whatnot.
Ion is also a huge fan of wasting resources. Patches feel like expansions, extremely large and complex systems that complete your class that is gone after the expansion, making new zones, new art, new music etc all the time, spending a huge amount of money on hyping up repetative and blatantly bad design... Why not just use the huge world that you have built up as your playground? Why does BfA have to take place in Kul Tiras, Zuldazar, Uldum and Vale, when there is such a large world to play around in? Why not take the previously successful formulas of the game, and implement it in our current times with better polishing? Why do you always have to make a world-ending story?
I know that with each new installment of the game, pleasing fans becomes significantly harder and harder, as expectations are exponentially rising, but at some point, the amount of resources, time and workforce becomes so limited, other parts of the game are being hurt.
Why not instead of adding Kul Tiras and Zuldazar as the core of the expansion, why not just use already built zones with towns, cities, NPCs, factions and motivations in Kalimdor and Eastern Kingdoms, and work off with that?
Why do you have to spend so many resources on building new assets, new animations, new characters, etc. when you could just polish your current playground, and maybe fix up Inscription so people can actually use the animations they have been demanding for a long time?
Why do you spend resources on developing a PvP scaling system that nobody knows how it works, goes against anything and everything an MMORPG is for, when you could have spent resources on building a satisfying PvP progression, and making Warmode more of a tough and unforgiving PvP experience instead of catering to PvE players who want quicker progression?
Why do you have to add a borrowed power feature to the game that is extremely powerful, but gets taken away at the end of the expansion, just so you could add something else instead?
Why do you have to rely on Titanforging, Warforging and Corruption to make loot interesting again, when you could just make professions more relevant by implementing gear and gadgets that are actually useful for both the crafter and the customer? Why not just reuse all the resources you have lying around in the old world? Why is it that items such as the Devilsaur Set are completely useless at this point?
I'm pretty sure I could come up with more why-s, but I wanna tie up this post.
- Just generally how player unfriendly the game is. Not being able to swap covenants reliably, not being able to swap conduits unless you wait 7 days, having to rank up conduits 15 times, having to farm up your legendary, PvP yielding bad gear again, we end up at a point where we'll most likely have our gear (and gametime spent) be 90% PvE 10% PvP again. Now, I've no problem having PvE gear in my BiS, I think the most dedicated players should have the best gear, but the ratio historically (at worst) used to be 75-25 and 25-75 for both PvEers and PvPers. TBC was the best example of this.
Tl;dr: I lied. There is a tl;dr.
"So in essence, instead of "Warcraft: Beta For Azeroth" we get "Warcraft: Alphalands" this time. I'm glad they "learned from their mistakes"." - u/hippostar
submitted by ghettojesusxx to worldofpvp [link] [comments]

Boseman, Black Panthers and Rainbows at the angle of 42, a synchromystic map.

We are all sad to hear about the death of Black Panther King Chadwick Boseman. He was a fine actor and played some of the most pivotal roles in his short span of making movies. And he was making some of these movies deep into stage three cancer all while keeping it a secret and smashing it in all of his roles.
Underneath everything there is a hidden saga being told. A strange world where everything is connected by some sort of energy that ebs and flows reality around in particular patterns.
I notice things and point things out that I find to be strange. Many people are quick to say that the things I bring up are “the work of the Illuminati” but I feel that it is no man or group that is running this algorithm of life and death, creation and destruction.
Ill start at the top of my research and just lay out the peculiar findings that I KNEW in my gut would be found. But then again everything is just coincidence......
The strangest thing happened when I looked up his birthday. I checked wikipedia and plugged in the date of birth till death day and saw 43 years.
Then I go to IMDB and also noticed many of the news outlets reporting “dies at 42” and “dies at 43” in about a half and half distribution.
Then almost as Im watching the edits begin and everything that once had his birthday at 11-29-1977 was now changed to 1978
This is not the first time this has happened and especially with someone with such a significant series of date counts attached to their birth and death days.
Born on the 333 day of the year and he lived 42y 8m 4w 2d But this is obfuscated with the alteration of his birthdate.
I stated that this wasn't the first time this happened as it happened with Joan Lee the wife of Stan Lee one of the co-creators of The Black Panther comic book series.
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https://www.reddit.com/coincidence/comments/6mj1m9/joan_lee_birth_911_is_77y7m7d_from_911_until_he
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Joans birthday 2-5-24 until 9-11-2001 is 77years 7months and 7 days inclusive! Joan died on 7-6-17 which is 5777 days after 9-11-2001!
7-7-17 was the day that Spider-man: Homecoming was released in theaters The day after Joan Lee began her journey HOME.
This is also strange because of the fact that on Trumps Inauguration 2016 he was 70y 7m 7d old. And he met with Putin the day after Joan lees death on 7-7-17 when Putin was entering his 777th month of life
Also note Trumps convergence with Abraham Lincoln, in addition to using Lincolns Bible to be sworn in on the inauguration day mentioned.
Trump’s first full day of life was 770 months, 777 weeks and 770 days after Lincoln was assassinated.
​
Trump’s first full day in office was 70 years, 777 months, 777 weeks and 777 days from the day Lincoln died. This day was on Trump’s 70th year, 7th month and 7th day of life.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nTIw-djmQcY
But if you look now you will see a completely different birth-date
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joan_Boocock_Lee
https://www.imdb.com/name/nm1643074/
Here is a screenshot taken the day of Joan lees Death and one cannot ignore the blatent spiderman SYCHRONY Ad.
https://imgur.com/3ECPa1f
I took this screenshot NOT because of the date but because of the SYNCHRONY ad. But doing so gave me a record of the change happening the very next day when it was altered.
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We got a little of topic bringing up Joan lee, Trump, Lincoln But it is also the finest example of a tight sync chain connecting multiple folks and also an example of Revisionist history when the dates are changes as we saw with Chadwick Boseman.
Chadwick Boseman was the King of Wakanda and builder of bridges and not barriers.
Black Panther was created by Stan Lee and Jack Kirby who debuted in the July 1966 edition of The Fantastic Four #52.
Jack Kirby was born 8-28-1917 and the day Chadwick Boseman died would have been Jack Kirby(black Panthers co-creator) 103rd birthday
Boseman played a collection of Real Historic Black figures that were firsts in their fields.
But lets go back to his first listed role.
https://www.slashfilm.com/all-my-children-fired-chadwick-boseman/
Chadwick plays Reggie in the soap opera All My Children and his role was taken over by Micheal B Jordan who would later portray his enemy in the Blockbuster hit Black Panther
The alchemy there is strong. 1 person splitting into 2 versions and they are Nemesis.
Killmonger was a Black Power “destruction of the White Colonists kind of person. “He became a subversive, with dreams of ridding Wakanda of what he termed "white colonialist" cultural influences and return it entirely to its ancient ways.”
Black Power and the Raised fist are symbols of the Black Panther Party symbology. There is a strong current in the Zietgiest right now that is pushing for the 2nd American Civil war.
Chadwicks first major feature film (42) had him play Jackie Robinson the FIRST Black man to join the MLB.
Robinson broke the baseball color line when he started at first base for the Brooklyn Dodgers on April 15, 1947.[2] When the Dodgers signed Robinson, they heralded the end of racial segregation in professional baseball that had relegated black players to the Negro leagues since the 1880s
Robinson heralded in the Segregation of the MLB. On 4-15-1947
Jack Roosevelt Robinson was born on January 31, 1919, into a family of sharecroppers in Cairo, Georgia. Note: CAIRO
The city was named after Cairo, the capital of Egypt. Why? Hmm.
So Boseman dieing at 42 and playing in the film 42 is not enough to warrant our attention but the icing on the cake is the effect of the CORONAVIRUS on the MLB.
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The teams took the field in their No. 42 jerseys but walked off after a 42-second moment of silence.
https://www.thescore.com/mlb/news/2010854
MLB BLM
The on-field celebrations, including the league-wide wearing of number 42, instead took place on Friday, August 28, commemorating the 75th anniversary of the date Robinson met with Branch Rickey to discuss joining the Dodgers as well the 57th anniversary of the March on Washington.
75th and 57th anniversaries of 2 iconic events for the lives of black Americans.
https://www.espn.com/mlb/recap?gameId=401226183 There was a moment of silence before the game for Chadwick Boseman, the actor who played Jackie Robinson in the movie "42." Boseman died from colon cancer Friday, the day Major League Baseball marked its annual Jackie Robinson Day.
This is all made more shocking since it was during the Dodgers game on Jackie Robinson day that the announcement of Chadwicks death was made via Twitter.
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Chadwick then went on too play the role of the 'Father of Soul” James Brown, in the film Get on Up
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=upeKFdDWk4I
James brown had a ritual that he would perform on stage where he got down on his knees and a cape was placed upon his shoulders to give him the strength to “Get on Up”
https://www.nydailynews.com/entertainment/music/story-james-brown-cape-83rd-bday-article-1.2623276
https://www.rollingstone.com/music/music-news/funks-founding-father-james-brown-1933-2006-69720/
Boseman starred along side Nelsan Ellis who played Bobby Byrd
In 1952 Bobby Byrd formed and sang with a gospel group called the Gospel Starlighters. During a friendly baseball match at a juvenile prison, he met a young James Brown who was serving time there on robbery charges. Byrd befriended him and arranged for Byrd's family to oversee Brown's parole.[3] This began a personal and professional association that lasted until 1973.
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https://www.imdb.com/name/nm1734700/
Nelsan Ellis also stared in the 2008 film The Express, along with Boseman. The film being about the first African American winner of the Heisman Trophy another First on the list of Firsts.
https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0469903/?ref_=nm_flmg_act_27
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Butler
I also took note of Nelsan Ellis playing Martin Luther KING Jr in the film “The Butler”
Which was the final film of Laura Ziskin who died of breast cancer 6-12-2011 (Da 5 bloods releases on the 13th anniversary of Laura's death to Cancer.)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Laura_Ziskin
In the late 1960s, after civil rights activist Martin Luther King, Jr.'s assassination, Louis tells his family that he has joined the Black Panthers. Cecil orders Louis and his girlfriend to leave his house. Louis is arrested again. Cecil becomes aware of President Richard Nixon's plans to suppress the Black Panthers.
Remember that Boseman died on the 75th anniversary of Jackie Robinson day and the 57th Anniversary of MLKs I have a dream speech in the National Mall/Lincoln memorial.
The reason Nelsan Ellis stands out to me is he was connected with Joan Lees death as her death was 7-6 and his was 7-8 and they were mirrors of one another. 93/39 black/white male/female. The mirroring element is highly important. But in seeing Boseman and Ellis together in 2 films made seeing Ellis's birth-date that much more potent.
Nelsan Eliis Born 11-30-1977 Chadwick Boseman Born 11-29-1977
Only 1 day separates the birth of these two men.
​
We are 3 episodes into the new HBO TV show about Jim Crow era racism in a Lovecraftian horror show called Lovecraft Country which debuted on 8-16-2020 12 day before Jackie Robinson day and Bosemans Death.
The first episode opens with a Dream Sequence.
“The opening monologue we hear in the first sequence of “Sundown” is a quote from the 1950 biopic The Jackie Robinson Story, a rosy recounting of the first officially acknowledged Black baseball player to join the Major Leagues. “This is the story of a boy and his dream,” the narrator recounts as our hero, Atticus, a.k.a. Tic, literally dreams of fighting a war, first against enemies in the trenches, and then against giant UFOs and flying Cthulhus. “But more than that, it is the story of an American boy and dream that is truly American.”
​
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Jackie_Robinson_Story
A Biopic where Jackie Robinson plays himself.
Note The American Dream and I have a dream, coated with some revisionist history Lovecraft lore that Lovecraft would hate as he was a racist.( he had a cat named “NI##ER)
​
Da 5 Bloods is Bosemans most recent release who he plays alongside/with Johnathon Majors the man who had the dream about Jackie Robinson destroying the nightmare starspawn creature in the opening scene of Lovecraft Country.
https://www.imdb.com/name/nm3718007/?ref_=tt_cl_t1
In LCC Majors is a Korean War vet and in Da 5 Bloods he is involved in the Vietnam War.
https://www.imdb.com/title/tt9777644/?ref_=nm_flmg_act_3
As he rages to himself, Paul has a vision of Norman who reminds him that he was the one who had killed him, having shot him by accident during the firefight, and that he should let go of his guilt. Desroche's men find Paul and kill him. At the temple, Desroche and the gunmen arrive. After confronting the Frenchman, now wearing Paul's MAGA hat, Otis, Melvin and Vinh start shooting, killing all of Desroche's men. Desroche wounds Otis and tries to finish him off with a hand grenade, but Melvin sacrifices himself by leaping on top of it. Desroche prepares to execute Otis, but David shoots and kills him with Otis's gun. Vinh helps the surviving Bloods share out the gold. Melvin's widow receives his share, and Eddie's goes to a Black Lives Matter organization. Hedy and Simon donate their shares to LAMB in Seppo's name. Norman's remains are brought home to his family by the military. David reads a letter from Paul, who tells him that he will always love him. Otis visits Tiên and bonds with his daughter for the first time.
​
Well that's a surprise. The Vietnam film flashes forward too today and has both a MAGA hat AND BLM
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Kobe and Boseman.......
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I made a similar post about the Life and death and synchromystic web of Kobe earlier this year and we are now seeing an interesting mirror in Bosemans death.
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https://www.reddit.com/C_S_T/comments/fhudokobecorona_and_the_collective_consciousness_clues/
https://www.bet.com/celebrities/news/2020/08/30/chadwick-boseman-and-kobe-bryant-last-conversation.html
The most obvious correlation is the mirroring of the 2 mens numbers. 42 and 24 and ill point out that Kobe Bryants 42nd birthday would have taken place 4 days before Chadwick's death.
Kobe Bryant died on 1-26-20 1x2x6x2= 24 his number
https://www.gannett-cdn.com/presto/2020/01/26/USAT/7230a522-1cff-4eff-a790-d26281f35538-AP_APTOPIX_Obama_Lakers.JPG
Here is Barack Obama the 44th president and also the First African American President with Kobe Bryant being gifted a jersey.
https://thehill.com/blogs/in-the-know/in-the-know/514273-obamas-honor-chadwick-boseman-he-was-blessed
Here is President Barack Obama accepting the Gift of the purple Crown with the 42 on in.
https://thehill.com/policy/technology/514329-chadwick-boseman-tweet-bumps-obamas-as-most-liked-post-ever
The most liked Tweet of all time belonged to Barack Obama and since Chadwicks death that title has been taken by the announcement of his death via his personal twitter.
https://www.mirror.co.uk/3am/celebrity-news/chadwick-boseman-worried-fans-last-22596856
Chadwick had posted the video to launch Operation 42, a scheme that donated $4.2million worth of PPE to hospital that looked after African American communities most affected by coronavirus.
The actor spoke to the camera about the cause clad in a purple baseball cap wearing the mark of the charity and a full beard.
The same purple hat(crown) he gave too Obama
Corona Virus can be looked as Corona= Crown Virus= Venom of the snake.(via the etymology.
This connects to the chakra system and highlights the “Rainbow Bridge” via the number 42
Purple is the Crown Chakra and the color of nobility and the crown as it is a combination of Red Vs Blue.
https://www.popsci.com/why-rainbows-look-like/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/42nd_Infantry_Division_(United_States)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Snell%27s_law
Rainbows are all about perspective. In the eye of the beholder The bifrost is the rainbow bridge in the marvel mythos. The way to travel from the realm of man to the realm of the gods. https://marvel.fandom.com/wiki/Bifrost
Black Mamba and the Black Panther both iconic pass in 2020 the year of perfect vision. Or is it that in hindsight we will see more clearly into 2020.
https://www.hopevscancer.org/product/axc-snake-vs-panthe
https://www.google.com/search?q=snake+vs+panther+tattoo&tbm=isch&ved=2ahUKEwjhkKiqvMnrAhUcQ1MKHR0lBeIQ2-cCegQIABAA&oq=snake+vs+panther+tattoo&gs_lcp=CgNpbWcQAzIGCAAQCBAeUNQTWNQTYPciaABwAHgAgAFhiAFhkgEBMZgBAKABAaoBC2d3cy13aXotaW1nwAEB&sclient=img&ei=qwlPX6GPEpyGzQKdypSQDg&bih=574&biw=1252&client=firefox-b-1-d&safe=strict
The Snake and Cat intertwined is a common trope in the tattoo industry perhaps hearkening back to the 3 sacred animals of the Mayan/Inca mythology.
https://www.ticketmachupicchu.com/inca-trilogy-condor-puma-snake/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Mamba_(comics)
Black mamba is also a cannon character in the Marvel mythos.
And WTF is this my friends?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Serpent_Crown
I had no idea this existed but if you look a couple lines up you will see the breakdown of CoronaVirus above as SNAKE CROWN. That is sync in action.
A mystical object with many similarities to the Serpent Crown – the "Cobra Crown" – is shown to have existed during the Hyborian Age that followed the Great Cataclysm.[4] A follower of Set called Thoth-Amon allies himself with some surviving Serpent Men and briefly wields this second Crown. Another receptacle of Set's vast power, the Cobra Crown also enables its wearer to control the minds of others. However, it appears that it was much inferior to the Serpent Crown as its abilities eventually burn out and it is apparently destroyed during the course of a conflict between Thoth-Amon and Conan the Barbarian
Which is a good segway into
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1FAsNGckPsY
Chawick Boseman plays Thoth the God of Wisdom and the word in the star studded hit, Gods of Egypt
​
https://marvel.fandom.com/wiki/Thoth_(Earth-616)
Thoth is one of the few gods in the pantheon of Wakanda
​
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rainbow\_Coalition\_(Fred\_Hampton)
The Rainbow Coalition was a multicultural movement founded April 4, 1969 in Chicago, Illinois by Fred Hampton of the Black Panther Party, along with William "Preacherman" Fesperman of the Young Patriots Organization and Jose Cha Cha Jimenez founder of the Young Lords. It was the first of several 20th century Black-led organizations to use the "rainbow coalition" concept.
Rainbow-42-Jackie Robinson-Black Panther founded on the 1 year anniversary of the Assassination of MLK
The rainbow has become symbolic of the LGBTQ and Racial equality movements and is also equated with Pride the many colors shining out of the 1 light
​
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/comic-riffs/wp/2018/02/22/civil-rights-hero-john-lewis-is-particularly-moved-by-this-line-from-black-panthe
T’Challa quotes a version of an actual African proverb that says that “the wise build bridges” while “the foolish” build walls. (Some variations on that proverb say “dams” instead of “barriers” or “walls.”)
John Lewis is another powerful Black leader that helped bring us to where we are today.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/21_Bridges
21 bridges was released on the 57th anniversary of the assassination of JFK 21x2=42
Rainbow Bridge.
https://baseballhall.org/discoveshort-stops/jfks-letter-to-jackie
JFK had sent a letter to Jackie Robinson
https://www.irishcentral.com/culture/entertainment/what-song-did-john-f-kennedy-ask-judy-garland-to-sing-to-him-on-the-phone
JFK had Judy Garland sing him Somewhere over the rainbow.
​
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marshall_(film)
​
Another Of Bosemans Iconic roles as the first black supreme court justice that resided over the case 'Brown Vs the board of education” the case that would end racial segregation in schools.
James Brown was another of his powerful Black men Chadwick Played in his short span of acting.
In 1961, President John F. Kennedy appointed Marshall to the United States Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit. Four years later, President Lyndon B. Johnson appointed Marshall as the United States Solicitor General.
He was appointed to the court of appeals by JFK himself.
“Marshall attended Howard University School of Law, where he worked harder than he had at Lincoln. His mother had to pawn her wedding and engagement rings to pay the tuition. “
Howard university was where Chadwick and Kamala Harris Graduated from as well.
https://imagesvc.meredithcorp.io/v3/mm/image?url=https%3A%2F%2Fstatic.onecms.io%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2Fsites%2F20%2F2020%2F08%2F31%2Fchadwick-boseman.jpg
This would be the final picture posted by Boseman
Some of the information I recived was from Kijani's video on the subject. Some very fine research with more of a religious tint to it.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aJMkafUoCjA&t=981s
​
https://twitter.com/extracapsa?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor
Another fantastic source of numeric synchronicity from Brother Berg.
666 weeks before Bosemans birth Malcolm X was assassinated 666 months before Bosemans death Malcolm X was assassinated. Black Panther=666 (sumerian Gematria)
https://twitter.com/extracapsa/status/1300126220462374912/photo/1
Boseman=33 died 30 months 30 days after the premier of "Black Panther" =330. Wakanda =330. Boule =330, the black fraternal order founded 3333 weeks before MLK died. Boseman born on the 333rd day of the year.
What is the Boule Society?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sigma_Pi_Phi
Sigma Pi Phi (ΣΠΦ) is the first successful and oldest Black Greek-lettered organization. Sigma Pi Phi was founded in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, on May 15, 1904. The fraternity quickly established chapters (referred to as "member boulés"
The word boulé, derived from ancient Greek βουλή), originally referred to a council of nobles advising a king. It is also used by the African-American sorority Alpha Kappa Alpha
Sigma Pi Phi founder Henry McKee Minton and Martin Luther King Jr
Boule was founded 3333 weeks before MLK assassination.
ames Weldon Johnson is a member of Phi Beta Sigma, as is civil rights leader and member of Congress John Lewis
Sigma Pi Phi is open to members of all races, as can be demonstrated by its well-known white member Jack Greenberg, who succeeded Thurgood Marshall as the leader of the NAACP Legal Defense and Educational Fund, Inc.
https://www.imdb.com/video/vi3929254169?playlistId=tt1727373&ref_=tt_pr_ov_vi
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malcolm_X_(1992_film)
This explains the fact why there would be no Black Panther without Denzel Washington (Malcolm )
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xG5TS-mdNN4
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eBDMGQmep9I
​
Ok folks, did I leave anything out? Well im sure by the nature of such research I left everything out. But I went with my gut and showed all the elements that resonated with me in combination with the current zietgiest (spirit of culture)
Let me try and do a TLDR, god forgive me.
TLDR
https://www.cosmopolitan.com/entertainment/movies/amp32871563/chadwick-boseman-age-da-5-bloods/
First the Date of birth being altered on all sources was the first red flag.
Chadwick boseman died on the would be 103rd birthday of the cocreator of Black Panther Jack Kirby on the same day as the 57th March on Washington where MLK performed his I have a Dream speech and also the day of the postponed Jackie Robinson day where Boseman Played Jackie and wore the 42.
He played alongside Nelsan Ellis in 2 films Nelsan died 7-8-17 a couple days after Joan Lee whos birthday was also altered and scrubbed off the internet to hide the truth apparent within the facts. Birth till 9-11 was 77y 7m 7 d from 9-11 till death was 5777 days ending up in the middle of Hebrew year 5777 and on dieng on the release date of spider-man homecoming.
This whole thing is about Black white and the Rainbow we are all in, but the light just has to shine at the right angle (42) for us to have 2020 vision, but most likely hindsight will be 2020 and years later all of this will make sense.
​
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1964\_Philadelphia\_race\_riot https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Panther_Party
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Front_Against_Fascism See also
Antifa (United States)), a contemporary anti-fascist movement COINTELPRO, a series of projects conducted by the Federal Bureau of Investigation aimed at surveilling, infiltrating, discrediting, and disrupting domestic political organizations including the Black Panther Party Rainbow Coalition (Fred Hampton)), a political organisation by Fred Hampton of the Black Panther Party
​
​
BLM's predecessor and the origin of the popularized raised clenched fist. Was Antifa.
​
What does all this mean?
Well its all just a coincidence and the ravings of a madman right?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KtZ03BzskeU
You may have seen my previous writings on such recent events and that might give you better perspective on the whole. Im not the guy saying these are the biblical endtimes, or the guy saying this is all the work of the illuminati.
Im the guy saying we don't have any clue to what consciousness and reality actually is. Im the guy that believes the universe is the great teacher. EVERYTHING humans know and every idea that has arisen has arisen out of nature. Every animal is a teacher, every process in physics is a teacher, every element of creation by man and god is a teaching tool. We are trying to learn what we are. The universe is a troll but in the way a ZEN master riddles his students with KOANS that ostensibly have no true meaning. But it is the process of play and entertaining ideas and convincing ourselves that every truth could be false and every fallacy could be true.
I don't have the answers, I just see what is there to be seen and I think about what is seen and relay my thoughts and the things I see. You may have to read through this a couple times to understand the crux of each individual link I mention but if you come at this with an open mind you may have an easier time and learn something.
R.I.P Chadwick, Kobe,Martin,Malcolm,James,Thurgood, T'challa and every other black icon in history to bring us to where we are today. We are at the start of the rainbow bridge and we can journey up through all the colors to get to the Crown, for we are all kings and queens heroes and villains on this world stage. PLAY your part!
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