The World This Week 10th July 2020 – 17th July 2020
Indian Equity Summary- · Sensex ended higher by 1.2 percent as the bullish trend persisted for the fifth consecutive week in the domestic equity market ,on the back ofØ positive global cues and optimism over the development of Covid-19 vaccine .The focus is now turning to Q1FY21 earning season and more importantly for guidance and viewpoints of management. · Going forward, global factors like development on the US -China relationship front , any resurgence of Covid-19 cases globally, as economiesØ have started opening up ; will continue to dictate the trend of the domestic equity market. We expect the trading range for Nifty between 10800-11200 in the near term. Indian Debt Market- · The bond prices fell as the yield on the latest 10-year benchmark 5.79% 2030 paper settled at 5.80% on Jul 17 compared with 5.76% on Jul 10.Ø · Reserve Bank of India announces the auction of three Government of India 91day, 182 day and 364 day Treasury Bills for an aggregate amount ofØ ₹35,000, to be conducted on 22nd July 2020. · State Governments announced to sell securities by way of an auction to be conducted on 21th July 2020, for an aggregate face value of ₹ 9,000 Cr.Ø · We expect that RBI will be in wait and watch mood before taking any major decision of rate cut on the back of recent inflation print.Ø · We expect the 10 year benchmark yield to trade between 5.80-6.05% in near term.Ø Domestic News · India’s retail trade has suffered a business loss of about Rs 15.5 lakh crore in past 100 days due to the COVID-19 pandemic as per theØ Confederation of All India Traders (CAIT). · The Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) from the US to India has crossed the $40 billion mark as on year to date, reflecting the growing confidence ofØ American companies in the country. · Forex reserves rose by $3.1 billion on a WoW basis to hit a record high of $516.36 billion for the week ended July 10, according to Reserve BankØ of India (RBI). · According to the latest data released by the Ministry of StatisticsØ & Programme Implementation (MoSPI), India’s retail inflation(CPI) grew to 6.09% in the month of June as against the prior released figure of 5.84 in April for the month of March. International News · Hong Kong's April-June unemployment rises to 6.2%, being the highest in over 15 years.Ø · Japan’s exports plunged 26.2% in June while Imports fell by 14.4% in June on a year on year basis , as per the data released byØ Ministry of Finance (MOF). · Foreign direct investment (FDI) into China fell 1.3% in the first half of this year from a year earlier to 472.18 billion yuan ($67.47Ø billion)as per China’s commerce ministry. · Gross domestic product (GDP) of China rose to 3.2% in the second-quarter from a year earlier as per the National Bureau ofØ Statistics, faster than the 2.5% forecast by analysts in a Reuters poll, with the easing of lockdown measures and ramping up of stimulus by policymakers to combat the virus-led downturn. · US GDP is expected to contract by an annualised rate of 37% in the Q2 2020 and by 6.6%for 2020 as a whole as per theØ International Monetary Fund (IMF) staff. Link - http://www.karvywealth.com/data/sites/1/skins/karvywealth/Download_media_report.aspx?FileName=B98EB615-C7D5-409D-AFF1-05C92C06DBE4|5234282 vH�X��Py
[Event] Increasing fiscal transparency in the government and financial sector
Capacity Development Strategy for Rwanda
Forward-looking policy priorities will focus on improving fiscal transparency, domestic revenue collection, interest rate-based monetary policy framework, improving and harmonizing statistical reporting which includes real statistics, budget preparation, external sector statistics, and promoting private investment. Rwanda is a high-intensity Technical Assistance (TA) recipient with a good track record for use of IMF technical assistance. The authorities’ proven commitment/ownership mitigates risks, and future success will require continued close coordination between the authorities, TA providers, and the AFR team. In the most recent fiscal year, TA was provided for:
Tax policy: An initial mission to estimate and assess tax expenditures and a model-building workshop took place.
Revenue administration: A mission to improve the Integrity of Taxpayer Register took place; assistance with the Revenue forecasting tool was provided.
Public Financial Management: The blueprint on the move to accrual accounting was reviewed, with recommendations on phasing, defining intermediate milestone, and a monitoring system; cash management and budget execution missions.
Government Finance Statistics: Compilation and dissemination of high frequency fiscal and debt data and moving to GFS-2014 format reporting.
Data standardization: To improve adherence to the data standards initiative, an e-GDDS mission took place.
Real sector statistics: Refinements were made to quarterly indicators and quarterly GDP estimates.
Money and FX Market Operations: Further measures to facilitate the development of the repo market.
Financial sector supervision and regulation: The central bank received training on risk-based supervision and formalizing its macroprudential policy framework and strengthening Basel II implementations and corporate governance as well as supervisory framework for forex bureau sectors.
Rwanda will begin implementing Forward-Looking TA Agendas into action to further develop the country's economical infrastructure.
Improve Transparency of Government Spending
Fiscal Transparence Evaluation; improving frequency and coverage of fiscal and debt data, implementing GFS-2014 formal fiscal data, and development of IPSAS accounting manual and providing IPSAS training
Improve domestic revenue mobilization through reducing and better targeting exemptions and improving revenue administration core functions
Follouw up TA on tax expenditures, reviewing the integrity of the taxpayer reigster, strengthening tax audi capacity of telecommunications sector, devloping a domestic taxes department headquarters function with its process flow and staff roles and responsibilites, as well as evaluation of revised property tax law.
Enable comprehensive, credible, and policy based budget preparation
Developing a roadmap for the implementation of performance based budgeting throughout the government sector
Enhance the effectiveness of monetary policy implementation
Training on Forecasting and Policy Analysis (FPAS)
Enhance financial sector supervision
Assisting in implementing a risk based supervision (RBS) including for insurance companies, adopiting IFRS, enhanscing RBS for MFIs and SACCos, and implementing Basel II/III
Establish an effective macroprudential policy framework and reofm and develop national payment system
Enhancing macroprudential oversight of non-bank insurance companies and pension firms, enhancing oversight policy framework, and oversight training.
[Event] Increasing fiscal transparency in the government and financial sector
Capacity Development Strategy for Rwanda
Forward-looking policy priorities will focus on improving fiscal transparency, domestic revenue collection, interest rate-based monetary policy framework, improving and harmonizing statistical reporting which includes real statistics, budget preparation, external sector statistics, and promoting private investment. Rwanda is a high-intensity Technical Assistance (TA) recipient with a good track record for use of IMF technical assistance. The authorities’ proven commitment/ownership mitigates risks, and future success will require continued close coordination between the authorities, TA providers, and the AFR team. In the most recent fiscal year, TA was provided for:
Tax policy: An initial mission to estimate and assess tax expenditures and a model-building workshop took place.
Revenue administration: A mission to improve the Integrity of Taxpayer Register took place; assistance with the Revenue forecasting tool was provided.
Public Financial Management: The blueprint on the move to accrual accounting was reviewed, with recommendations on phasing, defining intermediate milestone, and a monitoring system; cash management and budget execution missions.
Government Finance Statistics: Compilation and dissemination of high frequency fiscal and debt data and moving to GFS-2014 format reporting.
Data standardization: To improve adherence to the data standards initiative, an e-GDDS mission took place.
Real sector statistics: Refinements were made to quarterly indicators and quarterly GDP estimates.
Money and FX Market Operations: Further measures to facilitate the development of the repo market.
Financial sector supervision and regulation: The central bank received training on risk-based supervision and formalizing its macroprudential policy framework and strengthening Basel II implementations and corporate governance as well as supervisory framework for forex bureau sectors.
Rwanda will begin implementing Forward-Looking TA Agendas into action to further develop the country's economical infrastructure.
Improve Transparency of Government Spending
Fiscal Transparence Evaluation; improving frequency and coverage of fiscal and debt data, implementing GFS-2014 formal fiscal data, and development of IPSAS accounting manual and providing IPSAS training
Improve domestic revenue mobilization through reducing and better targeting exemptions and improving revenue administration core functions
Follouw up TA on tax expenditures, reviewing the integrity of the taxpayer reigster, strengthening tax audi capacity of telecommunications sector, devloping a domestic taxes department headquarters function with its process flow and staff roles and responsibilites, as well as evaluation of revised property tax law.
Enable comprehensive, credible, and policy based budget preparation
Developing a roadmap for the implementation of performance based budgeting throughout the government sector
Enhance the effectiveness of monetary policy implementation
Training on Forecasting and Policy Analysis (FPAS)
Enhance financial sector supervision
Assisting in implementing a risk based supervision (RBS) including for insurance companies, adopiting IFRS, enhanscing RBS for MFIs and SACCos, and implementing Basel II/III
Establish an effective macroprudential policy framework and reofm and develop national payment system
Enhancing macroprudential oversight of non-bank insurance companies and pension firms, enhancing oversight policy framework, and oversight training.
Press Conference with the Governor of the People's Bank of China 任中国人民银行行长 Yi Gang 易纲 on current monetary and regulatory matters in the People's Republic of China for the year 2021
Dear Ladies and Gentlemen, I shall be presenting the position of the People's Bank of China on the current forecast for the fiscal year 2021, with emphasis on the growth predicted for the country and the ramifications it has for the monetary policy of the PBOC. Additionally, I shall address the demand for the People's renminbi as a reserve currency for the Federal Republic of India. Concerning the growth of the economy for 2021, official growth stands at 6,3 percent. We raise our satisfaction with some positive changes have occurred in the structural adjustments of the Chinese economy in previous quarters, but deep problems remain amid uncertainties. While the the trade war with the United States has been officially ended and there has been regulatory and financial reform, we raise concerns with the additional oversight that has been placed on the digital economy and infrastructure of firms operating in the country. We would like to raise - in coordination with the State Council, that the policy is in response to both the U.S. CLOUD Act and European GPDR to which the burden is regrettable. Of more pressing concern is the slowing growth for the year that has missed the official target of the PBOC and the government. Thus I shall state that the People's Bank will continue the prudent monetary policy that is neither too loose or too tight, and ensure reasonably ample liquidity in the interbank market. However. The Bank shall begin a further stimulus package to address the slowing growth through creating further domestic credit growth and boost consumer demand. The additional aim will be to allow for easier borrowing for businesses that does not hold substantial non-performing loans that have been flagged to the Ministry of Finance. This relates to the new Supplementary Measures that are now being issued:
Article 1. In the process of identifying nonperforming loans, all banks shall strictly abide by the relevant stipulations of the Measures with regard to the statistics and identification of bad loans. Bad loans identified in accordance with the current regulations stipulated by the Ministry of Finance may be reported individually.
Article 2. Standards and procedures stipulated by the Ministry of Finance shall continuously apply to the verification of bad loans. We herein request all branches of the People’s Bank of China to pass this Notification to the urban commercial banks, urban credit cooperatives, rural credit cooperatives and their affiliates, credit investment companies, financial companies, and financing and leasing companies within their geographical jurisdiction.
Regarding State-Owned Enterprises, credit expansion will delegated by State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC), under guidance by the PBOC. With this screening policy in place - essentially window guidance, we hope to avoid flooding of inefficient credit creation. As to the matter of the size of the stimulus, the PBOC shall roll out a $260 billion package, with targeted support for performing small- and medium banks that have has viable credit profiles. Banks that fail to meet this requirement shall be reported to regulators to shore up, with asset sell-offs and NPL write offs - with the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (a percentage of the $144 billion operating budget has been allocated for this write-off, complimented with the National Debt Service allocations as outlined by the Ministry of Finance's projected budget for 2021) Concerning the state of the renminbi and its valuation, should growth projections worsen, the Bank is willing act robustly in the defence of the currency. Current repo rates shall remain in line and compliment current inflation metrics. Concerning more fascinating matters, the internationalisation of the renminbi is a policy that we at the PBOC would encourage policy makers to continue upon. Due to the dominance of the American dollar, the US government can issue debt and print money freely. It gains from seigniorage, as people hold dollars for use in transactions. As the world has seen, especially in recent years, control of dollar-clearing systems enables the United States to limit others’ financial access - which is of particular concern for the PBOC. Many global goods, especially commodities, are priced in dollars. These benefits also provide the United States with political gains and soft power. The same can be assumed for the renminbi and China should further relaxation of capital accounts and the not too loose or restricted monetary policy of the PBOC continues as it has. From 2009, the dollar has held steady at 60% of global reserves over the past decade, after declining from 70%. With the euro area’s troubles, the euro’s share has slipped; developing economies now hold about 24% of their reserves in euros, down from 31% in 2009. Other currencies – Swiss, Australian, Canadian – increased their attractiveness for a time, but their market size is limited and cyclical conditions have dampened some interest. The Japanese yen and British pound will continue to play a modest role, though we remain pessimistic on the role of the British pound should a No Deal Brexit be followed through. SDRs, which represent less than 3% of global reserves, suffer from a lack of private trading, invoicing, borrowing and lending, granted the renminbi has been added to the basket peg in which SDRs are issued by the IMF. Given the decision of the Indian government to divest from the their dollar holdings, the PBOC shall announce the sell of $20 billion of National Government Bonds to the Reserve bank of India as well as a purchase of $30 billion worth of renminbi to be held in forex reserves. Due to this measure, we hope to see that the liquidity of the Renminbi expands as international interest picks up, to which the PBOC shall facilitate all currency purchases as well as bond issuance to those who seek a stable investment.
Press Conference with the Governor of the People's Bank of China 任中国人民银行行长 Yi Gang 易纲 on current monetary and regulatory matters in the People's Republic of China for the year 2022
Dear Ladies and Gentlemen The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is gladdened to announce that the efforts made by the Bank to consolidate financial markets and reign in unproductive credit and the misappropriation in debt lending are seeing bountiful returns. For the 2022 year forecast, we are thus heartened to state that the economy has exponentially preformed to bring growth above 7 percent, beating negative analysis on efforts on the PBOC and government's meaningful reforms to address core structural issues that have threatened the Chinese and global economy. While we have identified specific measures in relation to consumer demand and business growth, in conjunction with the improving regulatory framework, we foresee promising inflationary movement and are pleased to see an adaptive labour market take hold in overall trends for key benchmarks. In regards to the current developments in the Banks's stimulus efforts, we shall maintain the current level of market guidance and capital assistance. While we continue this approach, we are constantly assessing the Mainland's capital markets liquidity and should concerns be spotted that identify general overheating, the PBOC is ready to address those concerns and enforce targeted measures. Now, onto the main elements of the year's statement: the current status on the internationalisation of the Renminbi and policy responses to optimise a favourable environment as well as new guidelines on capital market The following discussion shall be complimented with the following handout:
The Renminbi - The People's Currency, and Soon the World's?
The Continued Dollar Dominance
First, a blunt fact: while multiple reserve currencies have co-existed before, and of course dominance today does not guarantee dominance in the future, with the British pound's fall as a gentle reminder of this, the PBOC is pragmatic in stating that dollar's demise looks a long ways off. Part of this is the on-the-ground data indicating that the drive to internationalisation has indeed lost much of its momentum as a reserve currency.
There is no better reminder that the US dollar is dominant than the rout across emerging market economies sine 2016-2020. The worst-performing currencies of 2019 shared a disproportionate reliance on the greenback. In 2015, 62 per cent of countries anchored their currencies to the dollar and about the same percentage of developing countries borrow in the currency.
On the other hand, less than 30 per cent of countries use the euro as an anchor for their exchange rates and only 13 per cent of external debt for developing countries is euro-denominated. The pound and the yen barely show up in the data.
When it comes to global currency reserves held by central banks, the dollar is unrivalled. While its share of global foreign-exchange reserves has fallen for five consecutive quarters, global central banks have more or less held some 60 per cent or more of their reserves in the greenback since 1996. Even with a loss of confidence in US markets, forex holdings in the Renminbi have been somewhat insignificant.
Chinese Efforts to Open Up the Renminbi - An Uneven Effort
In March 2019, China introduced its first renminbi-denominated oil futures contract, an attempt to have an alternative for domestic and international investors and traders to the petro-dollar order. However until the central government creates bilateral agreement with major oil-producing (OPEC) states to accept payment in Renminbi, this will continue to see sub-optimal results.
Since gaining a spot in the IMF's Special Drawing Rights basket of reserve currencies in 2015, China has also extended local currency swaps with various countries, including those along its landmark Belt and Road initiative, as well as took steps to open up its local bond market to foreign investors. Though given the sputtering results in BRI agreements and the concerns on excessive lending to questionable projects/governments, the BRI as a route to internationalisation has taken a backseat for policy makers.
Of concern to the PBOC and MOF policy analysts is that internationalisation of China's currency has stalled, and by some measures even reversed. As in 2016, the Renminbi was the fifth most actively used currency for domestic and international payments, with a roughly 2 per cent share, according to SWIFT. That's a drop from 2014 and 2015 when the use of China's currency doubled — in a year — to 2.8 per cent.
When only international payments are considered, the Renminbi drops to eighth place behind: the dollar, which comprises nearly 45 per cent; the euro with 32 per cent; followed by the Japanese yen, British pound, Swiss franc, Canadian dollar and Australian dollar, which all have a share of 5 per cent or less.
Allowing market forces to play a larger role in determining the Renminbi's value and opening up the capital account would require a complete overhaul of the country's financial system. While we realise that such a policy shift would bring some expected gains, the PBOC sees little reason to make a great pivot towards liberalisation, but instead a concerted series of smaller policies - or to put it more traditionally, 'Crossing the river by grasping the stones on the riverbed.'
Making The Cross Across the Riverbed Towards A More Global Renminbi The PBOC has issued the following in its Guiding Measures to the Chinese Mainland and SAR financial markets:
A new rule shall be instituted on cross-border Renminbi FDI which stipulates that, in principle, all the foreign enterprises are allowed to raise Renminbi funds in offshore Renminbi markets and repatriate them back to the mainland in the form of FDI. Previously, the foreign firms’ behaviours of remitting Renminbi back into Mainland were subjected to the PBOC’s approval on a case-by-case basis.
These transactions are to be settled in Hong Kong accounts, thus increasing the amount of Yuan in circulation offshore; these offshore Renminbi will be distinctly referred to as CNH rather than the onshore CNY. Furthermore, this allows the PBOC to act should the policy be abused by market speculators looking for an easy entry into China's domestic capital markets.
This new rule will further buoy the offshore Renminbi (“Dim Sum”) bond market and accelerate the pace of Renminbi internationalisation.
The Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs shall begin to broker with OPEC states an agreement on settlement of trade in crude oil and its derivatives be conducted in Renminbi, in a further boost to the Shanghai International Energy Exchange and Shanghai crude oil futures market.
The extension of the “mini-QFII” scheme to India, Pakistan, ASEAN, the Republic of Korea and Japan which will allow some foreign central banks, beyond only a handful of smaller nearby Asian countries, to start building a limited amount of currency reserves even before anything like full currency convertibility will be authorised and conducted. QFII stands for Qualified Foreign Institutional Investor, a designation that allows a company to invest in Chinese bonds and equities — though again, within guiding limits issued by the PBOC on a case-by-case basis.
Regulators will begin a similar pilot scheme - RQFII - that would allow financial institutions with a physical mainland presence to remit currency from their Hong Kong subsidiaries back to the mainland — and, potentially, foreign central banks to invest small amounts of Renminbi in the Chinese interbank bond market.
The Hong Kong Monetary Authority already has QFII status, and the Monetary Authority of Singapore has applied, with the PBOC accepting further applications.
Foreign institutions will be given a capped access of no more than $100 million in Hong Kong accounts to derivatives, including financial futures, commodity futures and options in testing the markets' reaction to foreign operators.
[EVENT] Increasing fiscal transparency in the government and financial sector
May 4, 2022
Capacity Development Strategy for Rwanda
Forward-looking policy priorities will focus on improving fiscal transparency, domestic revenue collection, interest rate-based monetary policy framework, improving and harmonizing statistical reporting which includes real statistics, budget preparation, external sector statistics, and promoting private investment. Rwanda is a high-intensity Technical Assistance (TA) recipient with a good track record for use of IMF technical assistance. The authorities’ proven commitment/ownership mitigates risks, and future success will require continued close coordination between the authorities, TA providers, and the AFR team. In the most recent fiscal year, TA was provided for:
Tax policy: An initial mission to estimate and assess tax expenditures and a model-building workshop took place.
Revenue administration: A mission to improve the Integrity of Taxpayer Register took place; assistance with the Revenue forecasting tool was provided.
Public Financial Management: The blueprint on the move to accrual accounting was reviewed, with recommendations on phasing, defining intermediate milestone, and a monitoring system; cash management and budget execution missions.
Government Finance Statistics: Compilation and dissemination of high frequency fiscal and debt data and moving to GFS-2014 format reporting.
Data standardization: To improve adherence to the data standards initiative, an e-GDDS mission took place.
Real sector statistics: Refinements were made to quarterly indicators and quarterly GDP estimates.
Money and FX Market Operations: Further measures to facilitate the development of the repo market.
Financial sector supervision and regulation: The central bank received training on risk-based supervision and formalizing its macroprudential policy framework and strengthening Basel II implementations and corporate governance as well as supervisory framework for forex bureau sectors.
Rwanda will begin implementing Forward-Looking TA Agendas into action to further develop the country's economical infrastructure.
Improve Transparency of Government Spending
Fiscal Transparence Evaluation; improving frequency and coverage of fiscal and debt data, implementing GFS-2014 formal fiscal data, and development of IPSAS accounting manual and providing IPSAS training
Improve domestic revenue mobilization through reducing and better targeting exemptions and improving revenue administration core functions
Follouw up TA on tax expenditures, reviewing the integrity of the taxpayer reigster, strengthening tax audi capacity of telecommunications sector, devloping a domestic taxes department headquarters function with its process flow and staff roles and responsibilites, as well as evaluation of revised property tax law.
Enable comprehensive, credible, and policy based budget preparation
Developing a roadmap for the implementation of performance based budgeting throughout the government sector
Enhance the effectiveness of monetary policy implementation
Training on Forecasting and Policy Analysis (FPAS)
Enhance financial sector supervision
Assisting in implementing a risk based supervision (RBS) including for insurance companies, adopiting IFRS, enhanscing RBS for MFIs and SACCos, and implementing Basel II/III
Establish an effective macroprudential policy framework and reofm and develop national payment system
Enhancing macroprudential oversight of non-bank insurance companies and pension firms, enhancing oversight policy framework, and oversight training.
TRADING ECONOMICS provides forecasts for Commodity prices based on its analysts expectations and proprietary global macro models. The current forecasts were last revised on October 10 of 2020. Please consider that while TRADING ECONOMICS forecasts for Commodities are made using our best efforts, they are not investment recommendations. TRADING ECONOMICS provides forecasts for major currency exchange rates, forex crosses and crypto currencies based on its analysts expectations and proprietary global macro models. The current forecasts were last revised on October 10 of 2020. IMF Revises Growth Forecast for 2019, 2020. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has released its growth forecasts for 2019 and 2020, and the findings will likely dampen the holiday spirit. The Forex Forecast is a currency sentiment tool that highlights our selected experts' near and medium term mood and calculates trends according to Friday's 15:00 GMT price. The #FXpoll is not to ... Using Forex and Gold Price Action Forecasts. Informed gold and currency forecasts can help you with your strategy and analysis, minimizing risk and maximizing returns. Predictions can be based on ...
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