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Week 4 Power 5 Division Championship Probabilities (2017; avg. of Massey, S&P+, FPI)
A quick intro!
If you want the full intro, head over to the preseason post. But basically, every week I'm posting fresh data on the probability each team in the Power 5 conferences has of winning its division. Last week's post and data can be found here.
A Few Words About Methodology
I use per-game win probabilities either directly scraped or computed from multiple sources, and I simulate the season 1,000,000 times. (I could simulate it more, but I find that the numbers don't change usefully.) After each season simulation, I use each conference's official tiebreaker rules to determine which teams won their divisions. This data also gives me number-of-conference-win probabilities for each team, which I think are interesting even though you can usually find those numbers elsewhere.
Data Sources
I am using 3 data sources that provide either per-game win probabilities for every game, or team ratings that can be mapped to a formula allowing me to calculate the same. The 3 sources are Bill Connelly's S&P+, Kenneth Massey's Massey Ratings, and ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI). I weight each of these sources equally. I am not FiveThirtyEight, and I don't have time to do retroactive analysis on each of these sources to determine what their weights ought to be. However, these are all well-respected data sources that generally have ~75% predictive accuracy, which is considered to be very decent in terms of college football predictions.
And Now, On To The Data!
As usual, I hope you have RES, so that these graphs will appear as expandable images instead of just as links.
Georgia may finally be getting some respect from the computers. After an impressive win over a Mississippi State team that the computers had recently anointed as the most likely challenger to Alabama, and after Florida escaped Lexington with what might technically be termed a win over Kentucky, Georgia is now the first team in the SEC East to climb above the 50% threshold. Fans of other teams shouldn't throw in the towel just yet... but the computers don't think they should be doing any betting, either. SEC East Weekly Championship Probabilities, ScatteredSEC East Weekly Championship Probabilities, StackedSEC East Per-Team Conference Win Total Probabilities
The full album of graphs is available here. Thanks again to Jonesey07 and jsilverzweig for their help so far this season. Please let me know if you have questions, suggestions, or have some particular expertise that you think might be helpful to the project in general.
If you have seen any of my previous posts, I will be predicting the final score of every bowl game this year using a method that I made up based on S&P+. I will be logging all of my predictions, as well as the result of those predictions, here. Click the link of each bowl to see the detailed breakdown of how I got to my prediction. Disclaimer: All odds are the opening odds according to OddsShark. I will not be using the updated odds. My reason for this is that I will be using information that was freely available when the betting lines opened, and therefore any prediction I make today, tomorrow, next week, etc. would be the same as if I had made the prediction the day the odds opened. I am simply spreading out my predictions because it will take me 10+ hours to do all of them, and I am not going to sit down and do them all at once. I will post each prediction the day before each bowl.
Welcome to Week 2 of the Small College Predictions Game for the 2018 season! In this game users will make predictions on small college football games throughout the season. For the purposes of this game, we define “small college” as any collegiate football team not in FBS. This includes; FCS, Division II, Division III, Junior and Community colleges, NAIA, club teams, and more.
Week 1 saw two users achieve perfect scores, congrats to chrisonethree and BooshCruise! Cyclopher6971 and TSUplayer74 tied for second getting 6 out 7 predictions correct. Click the link above to see the results of each week and the season standings in full. Week 1 & Season Standings
user
pts.
chrisonethree
7
BooshCruise
7
Cyclopher6971
6
TSUplayer74
6
Greg_HardysGF
5
DankeyLord
5
FCS #12 Northern Iowa @#25 Montana - 23-26 FCS/DII Crossover Central Washington sacks OveUnder 1.5 Under 1.5 - Zero sacks recorded by CWU DII Findlay(OH) @Kentucky Wesleyan(+44.5) - 69-19 - so with the 44.5 given to Kentucky Wesleyan, the score would have been 69-63.5, according to Vegas, with Findlay winning. DIII George Fox(OR) @Redlands(CA) - 12-20 Washington and Lee(VA) - OveUnder 6.5 passing attempts Over 6.5 - W&L attempted 10 passes, completing 4 for 31 yards. JuCo #12 College of Siskiyous(CA) @ #2 College of San Mateo(CA)(-20.5) - 0-42, 20.5-42 with the spread. NAIA Ottawa(KS) @Bethel(KS) - 42-12 The biggest surprise to me was Redlands 20-12 victory over George Fox. I honestly thought George Fox was the better team going into the season but maybe home field advantage for Redlands and the long travel from Oregon was too much. What were your surprises?
Week 2 Predictions
This week features a lot of good games, thus many of the predictions are straight pick ‘ems. There will be more individual and team statistics bets in the future. If you have any ideas for predictions, please let me know!
The Furman Paladins and the Elon Phoenix met twice last season. In the first matchup in week 2, Elon won 34-31. They met again in the first round of the FCS playoffs were Furman won 28-27. This figures to be another good game as both teams kick of their FCS schedule. In week 1, Furman lost to the #2 FBS Clemson Tigers 48-7 and Elon lost to FBS South Florida 34-14. Neither team was punished much in the FCS coaches poll for their losses.
FurmanFurman @ElonElon Furman ranked 1st in FCS in fewest penalties committed in 2017, averaging 3.15 penalties per game. Elon finished the season ranked 12th in fewest penalties averaging 5.25. In last season's first meeting, Furman committed just 3 penalties to Elon's uncharacteric 11. In their playoff game, Furman committed 3 and Elon 6. In the first week, Furman committed 3 penalties, Elon 6. Will cooler heads and discipline prevail in this important FCS opener? Or will frustration, false starts, and ninjutsu elbow thrusts take over? Links https://www.ncaa.com/stats/football/fcs/current/team/697
Total Penalties OveUnder 9.5 - A pick of over means the two teams will combine for 10 or more penalties, a pick of under means the two team will combine for 9 or less penalties.
Slippery Rock, of Michigan football score announcing fame, travels to Seth Grove Stadium to play Shippensburg. Shippensburg finished the 2017 season 10-2 with a loss in the first round of the playoffs. Slippery Rock finished 2017 8-3 narrowly missing the playoffs. The two teams did not meet last season. Both teams won their first game of the season. In week 1, Slippery Rock defeated Kentucky StateKentucky State 38-31, Shippensburg beat ClarionClarion 35-13. In the week 1 AFCA Coaches poll, Shippensburg recieved 8 votes while Slippery Rock received 3. The winner of this game will most likely get enough votes to be in the top 30.
The Argonauts of West Florida will travel to Wichita Falls, TX to take on the Mustangs of Midwestern State in this top ten Division II match up. Last week, MSU beat Humbodlt St.Humboldt State 55-12 and it wasn't even close as the halftime score was 42-9. UWF beat the #19 ranked Carson-Newman Carson-Newman squad 19-9 at home. It should be noted that UWF starting QB Mike Beaudry may not play because of injury. Last season UWF lost in the DII National Championship game to Texas A&M - Commerce Texas A&M-Commerce 27-37. MSU finished the season 10-1 with a 2nd round playoff loss to #1 Minnesota StateSouthwest Minnesota.
UW-Oshkosh is ranked #4 in DIII and lost a close game to Mount UnionMount Union in last year's semi-final playoffs, finishing the season 12-1. Oshkosh is a DIII football school meaning no student is on athletic scholarship. Davenport, only started playing football in 2016, is a DII football team with scholarships and was 1-10 last season. Davenport head coach Sparky Mcewen has an awesome name and a history of turning around football programs. In Davenport's first game, they crushed NAIA Robert Morris(IL) Robert Morris (IL) 44-7. Oshkos beat Carthage College Carthage 20-9. For this one, you have to ask if a proven, consistent DIII team can beat a new, and so far, unsuccessful DII team.
Iowa Western travels to Hutchinson, Kansas in this important out of conference game. The Reveirs of Iowa Western ranks #2 in NJCAA with a 2-0 record. The Hutchinson Dragons come off a big 37-27 victory against #5 Independence CCIndependence CC of Last Chance U fame.
St. Francis travels to Joliet to take on St. Francis to settle who is the better St. Francis at football. Last year, St. Francis went 13-0 and won the NAIA National Championship. Meanwhile, St. Francis finished 5-5. St. Francis is ranked #1 preseason, while St. Francis recieved 12 votes for the top 25 putting them #29. In 2017, St. Francis beat St. Francis by a score of 68-23. In week 1, St. Francis beat Robert Morris University 42-9, while St. Francis lost to Sacramento St. 7-55.
Pick against spread. - A pick of St. Francis(IN) means they will win by 30 or more points. A pick of St. Francis(IL) means they will win or lose by 29 or fewer points.
Currently at 7 with -115 for both the over and under. Louisville's 2018 Schedule
(Neutral site) Alabama
Indiana State
Western Kentucky
@Virginia
Florida State
Georgia Tech
@Boston College
Wake Forest
@Clemson
@Syracuse
North Carolina State
Kentucky
Head Coach: Bobby Petrino (33-15 4 year, regular season record) Louisville has a pretty interesting narrative going into this year having lost Heisman trophy winner and first-round draft pick Lamar Jackson. The other story line for Louisville is the season opener against #1 ranked Alabama. This is almost a sure loss and brings back memories of Florida State's 2017 season opener that completely derailed the team. However, I believe that the over on the win total may be one of the best win total bets available. Jawon Pass enters the 2018 campaign as the starting quarterback and shows a lot of promise to successfully replace Jackson. Louisville returns their top three receivers from 2017 which combined for 2300 receiving yards and 20 TDs. They also return an offensive line unit that has room to improve over their performance last year. Louisville averaged 545 yards of offense per game last year and returns enough key pieces to keep that number high again this year. As for the schedule, it has its ups and downs. It starts off with almost a guaranteed loss. However, most of the closely matched games that Louisville must win in order to hit that total of 7 are played at home. Let's assume losses in the Alabama and Clemson games, and assume wins in Indiana State and Western Kentucky games. Week 4: @Virginia, W, Strong Lean. Louisville has won this game the last three years and I don't see any reason this trend should change this year. Week 5: FSU, L, Slight Underdog. FSU is a wild card this year. No one really knows what kind of team they're going to be. This may be a turning point game for FSU's season. Even though it's at home and I think this is more of a 50--50, I'll make the conservative prediction of a loss here. Week 6: Georgia Tech, W, Strong Lean. This could be a close game but I'll give a W with the home field advantage. Week 7: @Boston College, L, Slight Underdog. This will be a huge game for the total. Again, I think it's closer to a 50-50, but I'll play it conservatively and grade it as an L. Week 9 (after bye): Wake Forest, W, Strong Lean. Granted Louisville lost this one last year, but I think having this one at home makes the difference and Louisville wins this one comfortably. Week 11 (after @Clemson): @Syracuse, W, Strong Lean. Petrino has demolished Syracuse the past four years. Nothing makes me think this trend won't continue. Week 12: NC State, W, Slight Favorite. Another game that could go either way. Home field advantage is nice here. Louisville should get at least one win from their final two games. I'll mark this one as the W. Week 13: Kentucky, L, Slight Underdog. Kentucky is another wild card team. I like the home field advantage, but conservatively take an L here since we marked NC State as a W. Predicted record: 7-5. PUSH. So why do I like a bet that I expect to be a push? Well, the predictions I made are very conservative. I think that 7 and 8 are the most likely win totals. I think that 9 wins is almost as reasonable a guess as 6 wins. So, I think it's a fairly safe bet when you take into account that the bet itself is supposed to be a coinflip.
Made this for myself to keep track of every ACC teams' bowl status and thought I would share here... some objectivity plus some subjectivity so feel free to add your thoughts. Bowl Eligible Teams
Clemson (8-0) - Secured bowl eligibility defeating NC State on October 20th.
Boston College (6-2) - Secured bowl eligibility defeating Miami on October 26th.
Syracuse (6-2) - Secured bowl eligibility defeating NC State on October 27th.
Virginia (6-2) - Secured bowl eligibility defeating North Carolina on October 27th.
Teams in Good Shape
NC State (5-2)
The Wolfpack are one win away from bowl eligibility, and play no more FCS teams, so a win in any of their final 5 games will count towards bowl eligibility. Their upcoming opponents are Florida State, Wake Forest, Louisville, North Carolina and East Carolina.
Projection: NC State is favored by nearly 10 points against Florida State this week, but even if that game escapes them, all of their remaining games come against opponents with records of .500 or worse. They'll bowl.
Miami (5-3)
The Hurricanes are in a similar position as the Wolfpack, needing one win and any of their final four games will count. Their upcoming opponents are Duke, Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech and Pittsburgh.
Projection: Miami are solid favorites in Saturday's primetime matchup with Duke. The rest of their schedule isn't quite as cupcake as NC State, but it would take a ridiculous implosion to not bowl.
Duke (5-3)
The Blue Devils too need only one win of their final four games. Their upcoming opponents are Miami, North Carolina, Clemson and Wake Forest.
Projection: Duke is in a tougher spot than their fellow 5-x record teams. Practically-speaking Duke only has three chances to secure a sixth win (barring what would be a tremendous upset at Clemson), and Miami is looking to secure a bowl win of their own. Duke should win against North Carolina and Wake Forest, but the former is a rivalry game and the latter won't be a pushover. Duke is still a good bet to bowl, but it could be tight. They do have a great APR rank to fall back on in case they go 5-7, but no 5-7 team was invited to last year's bowls, so it's not a surefire invite.
Middle of the Pack Teams
Virginia Tech (4-3)
The Hokies have managed to secure 4 wins in a one game shorter stretch than their fellow 4-win opponents, which is good for them considering they may have one game less to work with (their match against ECU was cancelled due to the hurricane, and a 12th game has not yet been scheduled). They play Boston College, Pittsburgh, Miami and Virginia and need to secure wins in two of those games to bowl.
Projection: As VT's Coastal title hopes remain alive, it seems unlikely they will have a 12th game scheduled, which could likely only come on the same day as the ACC Championship game (Dec 1). Fortunately for them, they probably won't need it. Three of their final four games are at home, including UVA, whom they've played every year since 1970 and only lost to once this century. Yeah. UVA is looking to have pretty good form lately but that's a tough streak to break. VT has admittedly been shaky, nearly losing to UNC before getting blown out by GT, but it would be tough to imagine them not picking up another couple of wins before the season ends.
Wake Forest (4-4)
Wake will need two wins in the following four to bowl: Syracuse, NC State, Pittsburgh, Duke.
Projection: It's an outside chance for Wake Forest to bowl, who face two ranked opponents in the next six days, but to their credit defeated both of those teams last year. Wake also took Duke to a one-score game in their last meeting. Curiously, Wake has never played Pittsburgh as far as I can tell, which should make for an interesting matchup. If Wake can steal an upset in their next two matches I think they have a decent shot at bowling, but if they go 0-2 I think it will be unlikely.
Pittsburgh (4-4)
Pitt needs two wins and faces Virginia, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest and Miami.
Projection: Pitt has quietly improved after a sluggish start, beating Syracuse and Duke and taking potential title contender Notre Dame to a five-point game. As Pitt proved last year with their shocking win over Clemson, you can never really know what will happen from Pitt, so I'm chalking this one up as a coin flip. By Vegas standards they probably won't bowl, but honestly who knows. We'll have a clearer picture in a couple hours as Pitt and UVA are playing at time of posting.
Georgia Tech (4-4)
Georgia Tech needs two wins from a four-game stretch featuring North Carolina, Miami, Virginia and Georgia.
Projection: GT breathed new life with their stunning, dominating win over VT on the road last week. They like Duke practically only have three games to secure bowl eligibility as they face CFP-hopeful Georgia to close out the regular season. The series has actually gone back and forth the past couple of years but it nonetheless seems unlikely GT will be able to flip a win there considering how strong Georgia is this season. The homer in me thinks North Carolina will upset GT tomorrow, and if I'm right GT could have their backs up against the wall in just a couple weeks time. If I'm wrong, GT will have a little more breathing room, but not much. If I had to guess I'd say GT doesn't bowl, but they certainly control their own destiny.
Florida State (4-4)
At 4-4, FSU needs to win two of their final four games in order to go bowling. They play NC State, Notre Dame, Boston College, Florida to close the regular season.
Projection: It's a brutal stretch for FSU who really needed to close out that 28-27 near-upset over Miami earlier in October. All four of their remaining opponents are ranked in the CFP poll, and two of those games are on the road. Plus, it sounds like Francois may miss some time. It seems exceedingly unlikely that they'll bowl this year, but working in their favor is a 7-1 streak against Florida dating back to 2010. Plus, they get Florida at home, and if they can pull off that upset maybe they can pull off an upset against NC State or Boston College. My hunch says they don't make the postseason, but you never know.
Teams Needing a Miracle
Louisville (2-6)
With a 2-6 record, Louisville needs to win out to bowl. Louisville plays Clemson, Syracuse, NC State, Kentucky.
Projection: You can figure this one out.
North Carolina (1-6)
With one game cancelled due to Hurricane Florence, North Carolina is technically bowl-ineligible as the best record they can currently attain is 5-6 (a losing record). However, there is still a possibility that a 12th game will be scheduled, so bowl eligibility remains a distant possibility. North Carolina plays Georgia Tech, Duke, Western Carolina, NC State and would need to win out to bowl.
Projection: It would be a historic run for UNC to get to .500, but it's actually not unfeasible. Three of the final four games (or four of five, if the ADs add a 12th game) are at home, with one being a nearly certain win (WCU, a 3-7 FCS team) and two being rivalry games (Duke, NC State) that are never certain. It's probably just bias keeping this dream alive for me, but I don't think it's out of the realm of possibility.
Bowl Predictions So with that all said, here are my bowl predictions...
Will bowl: Clemson, Boston College, Syracuse, Virginia, NC State, Miami, Duke, Virginia Tech, Pittsburgh
Will not bowl: Wake Forest, Georgia Tech, Florida State, Louisville, North Carolina ;_;
Voting Will close at 11:59 PM ET, January 6 It's been a long and wonderful year for college football, and it's time to pick the best moments from the year! Relevant previous threads:
The Awards Show will be Broadcast Live some time after the CFP Final (Time TBD) There are two types of Awards being voted on here:
College Football Awards: Going top performers in College Football itself
/CFB Awards: Going to top performers internal to /CFB
All of these have been either nominated by /CFB users or curate by the /CFB Mod Team and are from the Calendar year 2016. You may vote on either or both. Please read through each category before voting! The top vote getters in the /CFB Awards will receive Reddit Gold courtesy of Reddit itself, who has given us 15 months of Reddit Gold to disburse for this event. Thanks to everyone and good luck to all!
Presidents' Day Invite, Warm Up: A Florida Affair, Easterns Qualifier – Tournament Talk [Feb 17-20]
Predict, Discuss and Follow the Weekend's Tournaments
Discuss the weekend's tournaments in this thread. Select tournaments will be featured here, but feel free to discuss any event on deck! Make predictions, share reactions and follow along. General coverage: @USAUltimate • @USAUltimateLive • @Ulti_world • @UltiworldLive • @Sludge • @BamaSecs Covering these or any tournaments on Twitter? Comment and I'll add you to the respective list below!
Prediction Contest
Congrats duthracht, winner of last week's contest! See the Top 10 • See Full Leaderboards Our weekly prediction contest features an assortment of straight-up questions, spread picks and prop bets. Show off your ultimate know-how and win prizes! All entries will be submitted on Reddit in reply to the stickied comment below, perfect for discussion and bragging rights. Weekly winners will receive a month of Reddit Gold! (min. 20 entries) Note that this contest closes early, Friday 2/17 at 9:00am ET, due Warm Up: A Florida Affair playing Friday.
Presidents' Day Invite
Featuring 36 Men's and Women's teams in cloudy La Jolla, CA.
Hello again. I'm here today to add the third installment of the series of my yearly college WR watch list, following up on the RB edition I dropped a few days ago. As a friendly reminder, my work is inspired by the wonderful work of Bill Connelly, and I highly recommend checking out his work as well. My derivative WR worksheet can be found here. I decided it was time to add some pretty color gradients to it, too, which might help with readability - perhaps a step up from binary conditionals I used on the RB one.
Methodology As with last year, I took the data and sorted by yards per target, going down the list to find players with a significant number of yards (>500, roughly) and a good reception rate (ideally around/over 70%). In addition to these names I come up with, I'm cross-referencing them against a list of prospects that I have been intrigued by or otherwise watched tape of. I still highly recommend looking at Bill's work and doing your own research, though. In terms of my process, my thoughts on each of these metrics has certainly changed over time, realizing that a stat like yards per route run is a superior efficiency metric to YPT, but I am not quite privy to that data. I do believe that PFF has that in their premium stats package, assuming anybody here is so interested. Same for depth-adjusted YPT, I believe, which would also be nice. Still, YPT and particularly total yards are useful statistics in identifying talents, though I may be a little bit more liberal with my thresholds than in years past, deferring to tape to a larger extent (where possible).
Looking Back Here we look at how the previous year's list has done to in terms of identifying talents who entered the NFL this year, up to the 5th-round of the NFL draft:
Player
School
2015Yards
2015YPT
2015Rec%
Onlist
2016Yards
2016YPT
2016Rec%
Corey Davis
Western Michigan
1446
10.3
65.0
Yes*
1500
10.9
70.3
Mike Williams
Clemson
20
10
100.0
Yes*
1361
9.7
70.0
John Ross
Washington
0
N/A
N/A
No
1150
8.9
62.8
Zay Jones
Eastern Carolina
1093
8.7
78.4
No
1746
7.9
71.5
Curtis Samuel
Ohio State
289
8.3
62.9
No
865
?
?
Juju Smith-Schuster
USC
1454
10.8
65.9
Yes*
917
8.8
67.3
Cooper Kupp
Eastern Washington
1641
?
?
Yes
1700
?
?
Taywan Taylor
Western Kentucky
1467
12.8
74.8
Yes
1730
12.0
68.1
Ardarius Stewart
Alabama
700
7.1
63.6
No
828
10.4
67.5
Carlos Henderson
Louisiana Tech
774
11.9
55.4
No
1535
11.6
62.1
Chris Godwin
Penn State
1103
9.3
59.3
Yes
982
9.9
59.6
Kenny Golladay
Northern Illinois
1129
8.8
56.6
No
1156
8.0
60.0
Chad Williams
Grambling State
1012
?
?
No
1337
?
?
Amara Darboh
Michigan
727
7.6
60.4
No
862
8.5
56.4
Dede Westbrook
Oklahoma
743
10.5
64.8
No
1524
14.7
76.9
Josh Reynolds
Texas A&M
907
10.7
60.0
Yes
1039
10.9
64.2
Mack Hollins
North Carolina
745
14.6
58.8
No
309
10.7
55.2
Josh Malone
Tennessee
405
7.8
59.6
No
972
13.0
66.7
Ryan Switzer
North Carolina
708
9.0
70.9
No
1112
8.7
75.0
Jehu Chesson
Michigan
764
9.6
62.5
Yes
500
7.9
55.6
Chad Hansen
California
249
8.9
67.9
No
1249
8.5
62.6
Shelton Gibson
West Virginia
887
11.1
46.3
No
951
13.2
59.7
Rodney Adams
South Florida
816
11.8
63.8
No
834
8.8
71.6
Isaiah McKenzie
Georgia
123
7.2
58.8
No
633
9.9
68.8
DeAngelo Yancey
Purdue
700
7.1
49.0
No
951
9.7
50.0
Trent Taylor
Louisiana Tech
1282
9.8
75.6
Yes
1819
10.5
78.7
I think there's a lot to be said about this data in general, so I'll do it by bullets:
These stats are far less sticky and predictive than the RB ones. It's much harder to control for the effects of offensive scheme, QB, and target competition for WRs than it is to control for O-line and such for RBs. Perhaps paradoxically, though, WR is the position where NFL teams seem to have the higher hit-rates.
Some names who did very well in the statistical portion multiple times: Mike Williams, Corey Davis, Taywan Taylor, Trent Taylor, (Cooper Kupp).
IMO the only key omission from last year is Zay Jones. He had promising tape, and I can only imagine I just didn't watch the tape because his YPT was too low (note there are 200 players with >500 yards in this year's database, so there's a whole lot of pruning to get to a list of ~30).
If the stats are any indication, many of these players either got significantly better or their roles got significantly better this year, as is roughly to be expected. Guys like Carlos Henderson and Ardarius Stewart are examples of this.
Kenny Golladay and Chad Williams are intriguing data points that I don't know how to really make use of. They might be good pros, and they had enough production that they may have warranted consideration last year, but I don't think they were on many people's radar, and they didn't clearly stick out (like a Rashard Higgins, let's say). I think that I'm going to focus a bit more on body-type in an effort to catch these sort of players (and Zay) this yeain the future.
2018 Draft
Player
School
Yards
YPT
Rec%
Comments
Simmie Cobbs, Jr.
Indiana
0
N/A
N/A
Rising senior. On list last year. Red-shirted last year due to injury. Big body, fluid athlete, but doesn't always play to his size. Occasional drops.
Jake Wieneke
South Dakota State
1316
?
?
Rising senior. Big body WR. Great use of size to frame separation. Catches everything. Good routes and solid athlete all around, but skips leg day. 3-year FCS star.
Allenzae Staggers
Southern Miss
1159
13.6
72.9
Rising senior. CC for 2 years. Average build. Good speed. Little tape. Stats buoyed by 2 games.
Jester Weah
Pittsburgh
870
13.6
56.2
Rising senior. Prototypical size/build. Well-rounded receiver. Didn't see the field until his 4th year in college this year.
Cody Thompson
Toledo
1269
13.1
66.0
Rising senior. Solid build and athleticism. Very good routes and YAC.
Cedrick Wilson
Boise State
1129
11.9
58.9
Rising senior. Prototypical size. Solid, well-rounded and natural athlete. Good YAC.
Dante Pettis
Washington
822
11.3
72.6
Rising senior. Thin, but fluid and natural athlete. Reminds me of Doctson when he was a junior, but an inch shorter and slightly heavier.
Michael Gallup
Colorado State
1285
10.9
64.4
Rising senior. High MS. Average build. Good speed and quicks. Decent routes. Questionable balance.
Anthony Miller
Memphis
1434
10.7
70.9
Rising senior. High MS. Average size but solid build. Not fast, but gets separation. Great toughness.
James Washington
Oklahoma State
1356
10.4
54.2
Rising senior. On list last year. High MS. Average build. Good speed, quicks, routes, balance, toughness. Still room to grow.
Corey Willis
Central Michigan
1078
10.2
67.0
Rising senior. Small WR. Good footwork and routes.
Cam Phillips
Virginia Tech
983
10.1
78.4
Rising senior. Average size. Well-rounded, decent athlete.
Shaedon Meadors
Appalachian State
716
9.9
62.5
Rising senior. Prototypical size. Fluid athlete. Not great separation (on limited tape).
Jonathan Duhart
Old Dominion
735
9.8
64.0
Rising senior. Prototypical size. Decent YAC, but doesn't look fast.
Shay Fields
Colorado
883
9.2
58.3
Rising senior. Average build and athleticism, but well-rounded with decent technique.
Devonte Boyd
UNLV
746
8.9
53.6
Rising senior. High MS. Thin build. Good speed, quicks, and routes. Inconsistent hands.
Damore'ea Stringfellow
Ole Miss
716
8.8
56.8
Rising senior. Prototypical size/build. Telegraphed routes. Inconsistent-but-strong hands and solid body control.
Allen Lazard
Iowa State
1029
8.7
58.8
Rising senior. On list last year. Big body WR. High MS. Great, fluid athlete and well-rounded player.
Linell Bonner
Houston
1118
8.3
73.1
Rising senior. Average size but solid build. Decent athlete. Inconsistent hands, but good body control and sideline awareness.
J'Mon Moore
Missouri
1012
8.2
50.0
Rising senior. Prototypical size. High MS. Good speed and fluid athleticism. Unclear why low completion %.
Jon'Vea Johnson
Toledo
773
13.3
69.0
Average size. No tape.
Jaylen Smith
Louisville
599
13.0
58.7
Big body WR. Good speed. Good hands.
Jonathan Giles
Texas Tech
1158
12.1
71.9
Average build and athleticism. Not fast or strong. Decent technique. Mahomes is good.
Equanimeous St. Brown
Notre Dame
961
10.9
65.9
Tall, thin WR. Well-rounded WR. Good routes, speed, hands.
Keke Coutee
Texas Tech
890
10.9
67.1
Small WR. Good quicks and toughness. Fast enough.
Nick Westbrook
Indiana
995
10.8
58.7
Big body WR. Not fast. Solid hands. Limited tape.
Deon Cain
Clemson
724
10.3
54.3
On list last year. Prototypical build. Good, well-rounded athlete. Effort and off-field questions.
Richie James
Middle Tennessee
1641
10.1
64.8
Small WR. On list last year. High MS. Also 300+ rush yards. Good quicks, toughness, hands. Not fast.
Ventell Bryant
Temple
895
9.8
59.3
Tall, thin WR. Good speed. Questionable play strength.
Stephen Louis
NC State
678
9.7
50.0
Prototypical build/size. Good speed. Good core strength and flexibility.
Courtland Sutton
Southern Methodist
1246
9.6
58.5
Big body WR. On list last year. High MS. Fantastic body control and fluid athleticism. Good enough routes. Inconsistent ball tracking.
Deebo Samuel
South Carolina
783
9.4
71.1
Average size but solid build. Quicker than fast. Plays tough.
James Gardner
Miami-OH
762
9.4
55.6
Big body WR. Average athleticism. Decent at the catch point.
Jauan Jennings
Tennessee
580
9.2
63.5
Prototypical size/build. Decent athleticism. Probably inflated from blown coverage.
Jordan Lasley
UCLA
620
8.7
57.7
Average size, solid build. Good balance, toughness, catching ability.
Antonio Callaway
Florida
721
8.5
63.5
Average size, solid build. Good speed, toughness.
Deondre Douglas
Troy
740
8.1
65.9
Prototypical size. Limited tape. Hung 11/93/2 on Clemson.
Christian Kirk
Texas A&M
928
7.1
63.4
On list last year. High MS. Average height, thick build. Good quicks and routes but average speed.
Calvin Ridley
Alabama
805
7.0
62.6
On list last year. High MS. 22.5 years old. Stats murdered by scheme (screens) and QB. Average build. Solid athleticism and all-around game.
That's 39 names for you, a little bit more than last year (32), but guys like Jauan Jennings wouldn't have made the list last year. High MS means roughly 28%+ of targets, for reference. Size information is roughly split into small (<5'11"), average (5'11"-6'1"), prototypical (6'1"-6'3"), and big (>6'3"), with some wiggle based on weight. Also note that for several of these prospects I could actually find Draft Breakdown cut-ups, so I can be a little more thorough in their assessments. For others it was just highlight tapes or less. Overall there are quite a few names this year that I really like, primarily: Cobbs, Wieneke, Thompson, Washington, Lazard, Moore, Jaylen Smith, St. Brown, Louis, and Sutton. The first 6 of those guys are going to be in the draft as seniors, so that's a good sign for the strength of this WR draft class. Of course some of the juniors will declare as well, and there is still a chance that some guys off this 39 blow up, but I feel a bit more confident that I didn't leave off any worthy names this year. I bet there are a bunch of you wondering why I didn't utter Cain, Kirk, and Ridley in that group. They're still good players, but their luster has faded a bit to me, and all three have regressed (at least statistically) since last year. About half of the list (~20) is comprised of players who, like them, I put into a second tier of players who I think will be drafted into the NFL and have some good upside but that I probably won't target in drafts. That leaves a third tier of players I believe have some fatal flaw and are unlikely to provide NFL production in any case, especially if they don't fix it. Maybe they do, or maybe I didn't get a great picture from the few plays I saw of them, so they're here both for the sake of completeness and to provide some amount of buffer. When you combine this WR class with the RB class, there should be very solid first round, even if one or two juniors surprise by staying in school. The second round will also have some good talent in it, especially when you add in the QBs and TEs, but I think I'm going to fade 3rd-round 2018 prospects compared to the 2017 ones.
2019 Draft
Player
School
Yards
YPT
Rec%
Comments
Ahmmon Richards
Miami
934
12.5
65.3
Prototypical WR. Fast, quick, slippery, strong, technical. Not perfect, but the best freshman I've seen in 3 years doing this.
Kelvin Harmon
NC State
462
10.3
60.0
Big body WR. Raw and unnatural at times, but big athleticism and upside.
Deshaunte Jones
Iowa State
536
9.9
68.5
Small WR. No tape.
AJ Brown
Ole Miss
412
9.6
67.4
Big body WR. Good athleticism. Probably a bit raw. Very limited tape.
Kevin Stepherson
Notre Dame
462
9.2
50.0
Very limited tape. Good speed, ball-tracking.
Demetris Robertson
California
767
8.5
55.6
Average build. Limited routes (mostly fades), but good separation and natural ball tracking/catching.
James Proche
Southern Methodist
709
8.0
64.0
Average build, athleticism, and technique. Probably NFL depth WR upside.
Dimetrios Mason
Missouri
606
8.0
63.2
Average build and athleticism. Similar to Proche.
Bryan Edwards
South Carolina
590
7.3
54.3
Big body WR. Good strength and ability at the catch point. Very raw routes and unclear speed/quicks lead to little separation.
Van Jefferson
Ole Miss
543
7.2
65.3
Prototypical build. No tape.
N'Keal Harry
Arizona State
659
7.2
63.0
Big body WR. Great quickness and fluid athleticism for his size.
Overall I'm not impressed with many of these players, but I figure it's not really worth pruning the draft class to less than the 11 dudes who I've already got. If you're looking for devy names, it's Richards clearly at the top with Harry, with some good potential shown in Robertson and the more athletic names. I find it a bit funny that somebody like Richards was the 62nd-ranked WR (per Rivals) in his college recruiting class, while the 2nd-ranked player hasn't even seen the field yet. Let this be a lesson to any devy players out there not to draft somebody just because he has 5 stars next to his name, especially if you can draft somebody who has already proven themselves in college instead.
I'd love to hear some feedback on what you think of the overall process and particularly what you think of the scouting report comments. I feel like it's useful for me to give some more detailed notes on players I can do that for, but I'm also a little bit worried it's losing the big picture for the details, and it may not be necessarily fair to players who have very different amounts of tape available. Thank you all for reading. It's been fun. I will probably continue this segment next year as well, so mark it on your calendar some time between May 1 and August 1. Edit: Gave Harry another look and realized I was a bit off on first glance. Sometimes fatigue sets in when looking over a few hundred videos and such.
College Easterns, Huck Finn – Tournament Talk [Apr 1-2]
Predict, Discuss and Follow the Weekend's Tournaments
Discuss the weekend's tournaments in this thread. Select tournaments will be featured here, but feel free to discuss any event on deck! Make predictions, share reactions and follow along. General coverage: @USAUltimate • @USAUltimateLive • @Ulti_world • @UltiworldLive • @Sludge • @BamaSecs Let us know if you'll be covering these or any tournaments on Twitter, Facebook etc!
Predictions Contest
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College Easterns
Featuring 34 Men's and Women's teams in sunny Little River, SC. Livestream Schedule
Queen City Tune-up, President's Day Qualifier, Bama Secs Invite – Tournament Talk [Feb 4-5]
Predict, Discuss and Follow the Weekend's Tournaments
Discuss the weekend's tournaments in this thread. Select tournaments will be featured here, but feel free to discuss any event on deck! Make predictions, share reactions and follow along. General coverage: @USAUltimate • @USAUltimateLive • @Ulti_world • @UltiworldLive • @Sludge • @Bamasecs Covering these or any tournaments on Twitter? Comment and I'll add you to the respective list below! NEW! Our weekly prediction contest is back for this year, with a few changes. All entries will now be submitted on Reddit in reply to my stickied comment, ideal for discussion and bragging rights! There will be an assortment of straight-up picks, spread selections and prop bets. Additionally, the Captain's Bonus can be applied to any question for an extra bonus point if right, or a negative point if wrong! Check back soon for this week's predictions! See here for the leaderboards • Weekly winners will receive a month of Reddit Gold!
Queen City Tune-up
Featuring 40 Men's and Women's teams in sunny Charlotte, NC.
I don't have time to do write ups for the entire nation like I used to, so in recent years I have picked the conference that interests me the most. This season's ACC is a murderer's row from a talent perspective, and one of the deepest conferences I've ever come across in the preseason. At the same time, all the top squads are all seeing significant changes to their core rotations. I don't see a single team other than Duke that feels like a safe pick in their respective tier. Trying to predict how it all comes out should be next to impossible, so naturally I am compelled to give it a shot. Please keep in mind that I have put the teams into tiers because I really don't have a strong opinion on one team over another in a specific group. If I did have a strong opinion, I would have given that squad its own tier. The one exception to this might be the massive middle tier, where I suppose you could say I think the top couple of teams are better than those at the bottom, but the overall principle still holds. (15/16 and 16/17 projected starters in bold, recruit 247 sports composite ranking in parentheses if they are in the Top 200)
Tier 1 - The Heavyweight (trip to final four in the cards)
PG Derryck Thornton (tr-USC), F Brandon Ingram(NBA), C Marshall Plumlee (gr)
Notable Returnees
SG Grayson Allen, SG Luke Kennard, SG Matt Jones, F/C Amile Jefferson
Notable Newcomers
G Frank Jackson(13), SF Jayson Tatum(4), PF Harry Giles(2), PF Javin DeLaurier (39), C Marques Bolden(15)
Favorites because...
...an incredible confluence of returning talent and the nation's elite freshmen practically tripping over themselves to sign on with Team USA's head coach. Giles is a generational talent if healthy, Tatum isn't far behind. Bolden is way better than people realize. Grayson Allen could flop his way to a NPOY award, provided he can keep his feet to himself. The supporting cast of returnees that would star on virtually any other team, but are blessed with skillsets uniquely suited to play complementary roles.
Could trip up if...
Jackson, more of scorer than facilitator, isn't quite ready to take over for the departed Thornton. There are a lot of mouths to feed in this lineup. K's deepest frontcourt since late 90's / early 00's, will he stick with his tendency to play small? I'm reaching here...
Schedule Analysis
Average 2x opponents on the easy side, trip up road games @Va, @Syr, @Lou
Verdict
One of the heaviest heavyweights in recent memory, anybody expecting less than a final four run is straight trippin
PG Joel Berry, PG Nate Britt, G/F Justin Jackson, G/F Theo Pinson, PF Isaiah Hicks, C Kennedy Meeks
Notable Newcomers
G Seventh Woods (48), G/F Brandon Robinson (60), C Tony Bradley (26)
Contenders because...
... 4 potential all-conference returnees got championship level experience last March. Berry and Hicks made huge strides and should be ready to take over starring roles, with Hicks in particular earning rave reviews this offseason. Jackson was a lethally effective glue guy despite struggling with his shot, and a potential AA if he can hit from the outside the way he did as a high schooler. This becomes even more important given non-shooter Pinson moving into the starting lineup.Three talented newcomers get the luxury of learning from the vets as freshmen.
Could fall short if...
...the returnees don't adjust well to feature roles, after the graduation of consummate leaders/winnters Paige & Johnson. Roy's teams always start slow, could be worse than usual this year. A high floor here, but top end of expectations will require individual improvement from all the returnees.
Schedule Analysis
Difficult 2x vs Duke and Virginia; relatively easy road slate
Verdict
Might not have the upside that the national top 5 teams have, but the roster is still loaded.
G/F Malcolm Brogdon (gr), PF Evan Nolte (gr), F/C Anthony Gill (gr),G/F Mike Tobey (gr)
Notable Returnees
PG London Perrantes, G Devon Hall, G Darius Thompson, SF Marial Shayok, F Isaiah Wilkins,
Notable Newcomers
G Ty Jerome (43), G Kyle Guy (37), SF DeAndre Hunter (91), PF Jay Huff (59), F/C Austin Nichols (tr-Memphis), F/C Mamadi Diakite (33 in 2015)
Contenders because...
... Bennett mixes a core of veteran roleplayers who have played deep into March with an epic breakthrough on the recruiting path. Nichols should replace Gill without a hitch, a capable multiple level scorer on offense and shot blocking threat on defense. Perrantes is as steady as they come as a senior. Jerome and Guy simply make sense as Bennett players, and will eventually dazzle on the national stage.
Could fall short if...
...the ultra talented newcomers aren't quite ready for the intricacies of Bennett's system, and the returnees remain limited as roleplayers. It is important to remember that what makes Virginia great is further removed from what makes a recruit coveted than is typical of most programs. The talent level is probably the best Bennett has ever had, but will the youngsters defend at the level he demands? An elite but raw talent like Diakite could start, and he could also find himself completely outside the rotation.
Schedule Analysis
Difficult 2x vs UNC, Louisville, Va Tech and Pitt, just nasty
Verdict
A lot of new roles to determine early on and a brutal conference schedule, but it isn't wise to bet against the Hoos
G Trey Lewis(gr), G/F Damion Lee (gr), C Chinanu Onuaku, (NBA)
Notable Returnees
PG Quentin Snyder, G Donovan Mitchell, SF Deng Adel, PF Raymond Spalding, PF Jaylen Johnson, C Mangok Mathiang, C Anas Mahmoud
Notable Newcomers
PG Tony Hicks (tr-Penn), G/F VJ King (27)
Contenders because...
... Much like UNC, Louisville returns a core of talent more than capable of taking over feature roles for a high level ACC team. Sophs Mitchell, Adel and Spalding should all be on national breakout player lists, with Mitchell sure to become a national favorite as a classic Pitino style guard - hard nosed, physical and ultra explosive. King has legitimate NBA upside on the wing, while veterans Snyder and Mathiang will provide steady veteran presence.
Could fall short if...
...the sophs aren't quite ready for the larger roles they have never played at this level. The Cardinals were not a good offensive team last year, and their top 3 shot creators are gone. I would guess Pitino is emphasizing skill development this fall, as Mitchell, Adel and Spalding were all still in need of refining the last time we saw them. Mathiang and Mahmoud are both coming off major injuries.
Schedule Analysis
Difficult 2x vs Virginia, Syracuse, ND and Pitt; Pitino probably would have preferred an easier slate for his untested squad
Verdict
It might take some time, but Pitino will get it figured out.
(ly KenPom #24 (23-14 overall, 9-9 ACC, Final Four)
Notable Losses
PG Kaleb Joseph (tr-Creighton), SG Trevor Cooney (gr), G/F Michael Gbinije (gr), G/F Malachi Richardson, (NBA)
Notable Returnees
G Franklin Howard, PF Tyler Roberson, F/C Tyler Lydon, C DaJuan Coleman
Notable Newcomers
PG John Gillon (tr-Colorado St), G/F Tyus Battle (36), SF Andrew White (tr-Nebraska), PF Trevor Thompson (74), C Paschal Chukwu (tr-Providence)
Contenders because...
...despite appearing to be in serious trouble after Richardson surprised everybody by playing his way in the first round of the draft, Boeheim recovered at the last possible moment with the addition of White. Likely starting PG Gillon was a liability if forced to play a feature role, but is a deadly shooter who could thrive next a shot creator like White. Lydon is another player who wasn't a natural for a shot creator role, but is an elite of the elite floor stretcheshot blocker combo primed for a breakout year. He could combine with Chukwu to form the best shot blocking duo in the nation.
Could fall short if...
...all the new pieces don't fit, with perhaps even more risk than Virginia and Louisville. The backcourt is the most at risk here, with White arriving late and only 4 scholarship bodies, meaning there is no room for an injury, eligibility issue, off the court snafu, or even chemistry issues.
Schedule Analysis
Cakewalk I'm not sure what the schedulemakers were thinking giving the Orange return games against both bottom feeders, but it is a huge edge.
Verdict
The backcourt hasn't played together and is extremely shallow, but the pieces are there for Syracuse to improve significantly on last year's .500 ACC finish
Tier 3 - NCAA Tournament Bound (in any other conference)
(ly KenPom #74 (16-17 overall, 5-13 ACC, No Posteason)
Notable Losses
PG Anthony Barber (NBA), SF Caleb Martin, (tr-Nevada), SF Cody Martin (tr-Nevada), F/C Lennard Freeman (injury redshirt)
Notable Returnees
G/F Maverick Rowan, PF Abdul-Malik Abu, C Beejay Anya
Notable Newcomers
PG Dennis Smith (7), PG Markell Johnson (58), SG Terry Henderson (tr-West Virginia), G/F Torin Dorn (tr-Charlotte), C Omer Yurtseven (Int), F/C Ted Kapita (56),
Will dance because...
...Mark Gottfried's heroic recruiting effort has upgraded the talent to levels rarely seen at NC State. Smith a video game style dunker in the mold of Stephon Marbury, and even coming off an ACL surgery was so impressive at Adidas nations this summer he's now showing up as the #1 pick on many preseason mock drafts. Yurtseven will make Abu's life a lot easier on the interior, while the wing rotation of Rowan, Dorn and Henderson should provide excellent floor spacing.
Could fall short if...
...inexperience and locker room woes become an issue. Chemistry has been a near constant problem for Gottfried, even dating back to his days at Alabama, and this year's well traveled group probably isn't the one you'd expect to reverse that trend. The buzz is that this group will play better together, but Smith is the type who might try to win games by himself (and probably succeed at it). Eligibility concerns do exist for Yurtseven and Kapita.
Schedule Analysis
Easy Return games vs WF and Ga Tech will help
Verdict
Gottfried will have to earn his salary this year melding all the youngsters and other newcomers, but the Wolfpack are as talented as anybody outside of Duke.
(ly KenPom #48 (17-14 overall, 10-8 ACC, No Posteason)
Notable Losses
PG Jordan Roper (gr), C Landry Nnoko (gr)
Notable Returnees
G Avry Holmes, SG Gabe Devoe, F Donte Grantham, PF Jaron Blossomgame, C Sidy Djitte
Notable Newcomers
PG Shelton Mitchell (tr-Vanderbilt), SG Marcquise Reed (tr-Robert Morris), G/F Scott Spencer (183), C **Elijah Thomas (tr-Texas A&M)
Will dance because...
...Jaron Blossomgame decided to pass up a gtd NBA contract to try and finally push Brad Brownell's Tigers over the hump. Not the most traditionally talented lineup, but there is a legit all-america candidate, several experienced rotation players, and a trio of extremely talented transfers. Thomas could be the real difference maker as the type of legitimate post scoring presence that hasn't been seen at Clemson in years.
Could fall short if...
...Thomas' issues follow him from Texas after he becomes eligible mid-year. The Glen Davis-style big man was once considered a future NBA player, but injuries and difficulty controlling his emotions on the court dropped him in the rankings by the time he was a senior. His time at Texas A&M was short, as he jumped ship after not landing a starting job immediately as a freshman. Brownell also needs better perimeter shooting from his guard rotation, though Holmes, Reed and DeVoe certainly have the ability to better stretch the floor.
Schedule Analysis
Easy No return matchups against the top 2 tiers, also get WF and Ga Tech 2x
Verdict
There are questions about just how high the ceiling is here, but the easy schedule tips Clemson above several comparably talented middle of the pack squads. Thomas' ability to contribute will decide things.
PG Justin Robinson, G Seth Allen, G Devin Wilson, SG Ahmed Hill, G/F Justin Bibbs, PF Chris Clarke, PF Zach LeDay, C Kerry Blackshear
Notable Newcomers
SF Charles Outlaw (rs/juco)
Will dance because...
...unlike virtually every other team on this list, the Hokies have nearly their full rotation back. Like most Williams-coached squads, Virginia Tech is a bit undersized but not lacking in toughness. LeDay was a surprise impact transfer and one of the most accomplished returnees in the conference. Clarke suffered a midyear injury, but is a classic Williams-style forward and was causing major problems for opponents by the end of the year. Bibbs is one of the top marksmen in the conference, while Hill and Outlaw return from injury. Blackshear showed enough as a freshman to envision a more traditionally sized lineup if Williams wants to head that direction.
Could fall short if...
...the ball doesn't bounce their direction. The Hokies are likely to be in a lot of close games - they don't have a very high ceiling, but the floor is relatively high as well given all the returnees from last year's competent squad. The middle of the pack is likely to be seperated by only a couple of games, and no team is more likely to be in the middle of that pack than Virginia Tech. Can the Hokies close out tight games against evenly matched opposition?
Schedule Analysis
Average Not too bad, considering their 1 return game against a top tier opponent is vs in-state rival Virginia.
Verdict
Expect to see Buzz Williams back to where he is supposed to be this March - sweating through his shirt on your television
PG Matt Farrell, SG Steve Vasturia, G/F Rex Pflueger, SF VJ Beachem, SF Matt Ryan, PF Bonzie Colson, C Martin Geben (non-rotation in 15/16)
Notable Newcomers
G Temple Gibbs (87), F Elijah Burns (RS), PF John Mooney (148)
Will dance because...
...Mike Brey doesn't reload, he rebuilds. Year after year, he finds elite skill players for his specific brand of basketball, turning run of the mill recruits into featured cogs in one of the nation's most high octane offenses. This year the burden falls to 3 upperclassmen. Beachem has the highest upside of anybody on the team and is in for a huge senior season given the need for a feature scorer. Colson is undersized, but a matchup nightmare capable of putting up big numbers if not accounted for. Sophs Pfleuger and Ryan have the potential to develop into legitimate floor stretchers.
Could fall short if...
...they aren't able to compete physically. The Irish are typically at a physical disadvantage against top ACC opponents, but 16/17 will test Brey's ability to overcome those limitations like no year in recent memory. Gibbs looks like a decent replacement for Jackson, but early reports of the ineffective Farrell having the inside track on the starting job aren't encouraging. The froncourt is even worse - Colson's size wasn't a problem with a legit C next to him, but Auguste is gone. Apparently Geben has the inside track on the job, but he wasn't even in the rotation last year.
Schedule Analysis
Cakewalk Four automatic wins over BC and Georgia Tech are quite the head start.
Verdict
This is a team that could crater a little bit such a high level conference, but it isn't like Brey hasn't dealt with similar problems in the past. The easy schedule helps.
PG Angel Rodriguez (gr), SG James Palmer (tr-Nebraska), G/F Sheldon McClellan (gr), F/C Ivan Uceda (gr), C Tonye Jekiri (gr)
Notable Returnees
PG Ja'Quan Newton, G/F Davon Reed, F Anthony Lawrence, PF Kamari Murphy,
Notable Newcomers
G Dejan Vasiljevic (int), SG Bruce Brown (30), G/F Rashad Muhammad (tr-San Jose St), PF Dewan Huwell (29), C Rodney Miller (152)
Will dance because...
...Jim Larranaga is a great coach with just enough returning (plus quite a bit of talent arriving) to overcome the graduation of perhaps the most accomplished trio in school history. Newton should slide into the PG spot without much of a hitch, while sharpshooter Reed, immediate impact freshman Brown, and transfer Rashad Muhammad should keep the offensive attack humming. Soph Lawrence showed plenty of promise in his initial run through the ACC, and could be in line for a lot more PT. Huwell ran into some off the court issues this summer, but can certainly score on the block.
Could fall short if...
...like other young teams Larranaga has coached at Miami, it just takes some time to get his group to gel. The future of the program is secure, but big things will be needed from Brown.
Schedule Analysis
Average Two games against Duke won't be fun
Verdict
There's no reason to think Miami can't make a run, but there are a lot of good teams in the ACC this year.
G Devon Bookert (gr), G Benji Bell (tr-D2), SG Malik Beasley (NBA), F Montay Brandon (gr), C Boris Bojanovsky (gr)
Notable Returnees
G Xavier Rathan-Mayes, G/F Terrance Mann, SF Dwayne Bacon, PF Phil Cofer, F/C Jarquez Smith, C Chris Koumadje
Notable Newcomers
PG CJ Walker (129), SG Trent Forrest (69), F Jonathan Isaac (8),
Will dance because...
...Hamilton's perimeter rotation is too talented not to. Bacon surprised many by returning to school, and could really take off if he can improve his inconsistent outside shot. However, the real star might be Isaac, an elite combination of size and skill only just coming into his own. Rathan-Mayes has struggled shooting the ball for 2 years, but has improved as a PG and certainly is capable hitting shots at a better rate. With Mann and Forrest shoring up a deep rotation, FSU should be able to wear down opposing guards.
Could fall short if...
...somebody doesn't step up in the paint. It is hard to believe the Seminoles haven't made the NCAA Tournament since 2012, and the main difference has been in the frontcourt. This year's squad still lacks a traditional big man, and the defense will continue to suffer. Hamilton will likely go small and let Isaac face up slower defenders, but a real move toward the top of the ACC will only come if Cofer, Smith or Koumadje can make a big jump.
Schedule Analysis
Average No easy return matchups and Duke twice
Verdict
Talented enough to be much higher than this, and Isaac will generate plenty of national attention. Maybe another incremental step in the right direction?
...Jamie Dixon left behind two of the top returnees in the conference in Jamel Artis and Michael Young. New coach Kevin Stallings got some deserved criticism for his inability to get Vandy over the top, but he's always done his best work with underdog type squads. Staying with the forward theme, Jeter made strides last year and now somehow ends up playing for the coach that refused to release him from his scholarship at Vanderbilt 3 years ago.
Could fall short if...
...there isn't a surprise contribution from one of the guards. Robinson wasn't a world beater, but he ran good offense and it is debatable whether there is a single ACC-caliber guard on the roster this season. Things are so desperate that Stallings indicated this week he is considering letting Artis run the point. Yikes.
The talent level is declining precipitously, and Dixon saw the writing on the wall. Stallings is capable of making it work, but the schedule really leaves the Panthers behind the 8 ball.
(ly KenPom #125 (11-20 overall, 2-16 ACC, No Postseason)
Notable Losses
PG Codi Miller-McIntyre (gr), PG Madison Jones (tr-Seton Hall), G/F Cornelius Hudson (tr), F/C Devin Thomas (gr),
Notable Returnees
G Bryant Crawford, G Mitchell Wilbekin, SF Greg McClinton, PF Konstantinos Mitoglu, F/C John Collins, C Doral Moore
Notable Newcomers
PG Brandon Childress (191), SG Keyshawn Woods (tr-Charlotte), SF Austin Arians (tr-Milwaukee), C Sam Japhet-Mathias (169)
Will dance if...
...Danny Manning works miracles the way he did at Tulsa. Last year's freshman class showed some promise, especially combo guard Bryant Crawford and post man John Collins. The depth isn't there, but at least a couple of ACC difference makers could take the floor. Moore also showed a bit of a pulse in extremely limited minutes. Mid-major transfers Woods and Arians can both shoot the rock.
Will fall short because...
...last season wasn't just devastating on the floor, but on the recruiting path as well. After a solid initial class, Manning really needed to fill the roster with immediate impact talent to replace his two best players, Miller-McIntyre and Thomas. But it didn't happen, and the roster now has major holes. Maybe things just didn't click with the Bzdelik holdovers and Manning will turn things around. But this isn't the year to expect that kind of leap.
Schedule Analysis
Average
Verdict
It isn't clear what happened last year, but Manning will have to show some results in the next couple of years. Consider it a success if Wake Forest can even approach .500 this year.
PG Travis Jorgenson (tr), SG Adam Smith (gr), G/F Marcus Georges-Hunt (gr), PF Charles Mitchell (gr), PF James White (gr), C Nick Jacobs (gr),
Notable Returnees
PG Josh Heath, SG Tadric Jackson, SF Quinton Stephens, C Ben Lammers
Notable Newcomers
PG Justin Moore, G/F Josh Okogie (181), F Jodan Price (tr-Eastern Michigan), F Christian Matthews, F Kellen McCormick (tr-Western Michigan), C Sylvester Ogbonda (RS)
Will dance if...
...the fabric of reality is fundamentally altered
Will fall short because...
...Brian Gregory took Georgia Tech from a struggling but still respectable program and turned it into a dumpster fire. The Yellow Jackets finally managed to compete in his final year, but he did it with grad transfers and the future was grim. This is what happens when an AD lets a coach twist in the wind for 3 years. Pastner took the job much too late to make any recruiting inroads for 2016, and is left with perhaps the worst roster in school history.
Schedule Analysis
Average
Verdict
Ga Tech could have done a lot worse than Pastner, even though Memphis was in a death spiral as well. He should be able to recruit Georgia well, but year 1 will be ugly.
(ly KenPom #248 (7-25 overall, 0-18 ACC, No Postseason)
Notable Losses
PG Eli Carter (gr), SG Matt Milon (tr-William and Mary), SG Sammy Barnes-Thompkins (tr-JuCo), C **Denis Clifford (gr), C Idrissa Diallo (tr-UC Riverside)
Notable Returnees
G Jerome Robinson, SG AJ Turner, G/F Darryl Hicks, SF Garland Owens, F Ervins Meznieks,
Notable Newcomers
PG Ty Graves, PG Kyran Bowman, SF Mike Sagay, F Connor Tarva (tr-Western Michigan), PF Nik Popovic, F/C John Carlos Reyes (RS), C Maurice Jeffers (tr-Delaware)
The Clemson Tigers and the NC State Wolfpack will match up in college football action on Saturday. Clemson rolls in here at 9-0 so far. The Tigers have taken out Georgia Tech, Texas A&M, Syracuse, Charlotte, UNC, Florida State, Louisville Boston College and Wofford in succession this season. Miami vs Clemson picks and predictions: Hurricane Warning Covers Oct 7, 2020 - 11:36 AM ET Two Top-10 teams face off on national tv in Week 6's marquee matchup. NC State at North Carolina Game Overview. NC State’s climb in the national rankings was derailed with a 27-23 loss to Wake Forest as a heavy 19-point home favorite on Nov. 8. Its only other two straight-up losses on the year were to Clemson and Syracuse on the road. Tigers at Wolfpack Best Bets Saturday, November 9, 2019 Calculated 2020-03-28 15:34:49 EST So if Alabama is -150 in that game against Clemson, a $150 bet on the Tide would yield $100. If Clemson is +130, a $100 bet on Clemson would yield $130. American odds scale up or down based on how much you want to bet, so it might be more helpful to think of them in cents instead of dollars -- $1.50 wins $1 for Alabama, $1 wins $1.30 for Clemson.
Clemson vs. Ohio State, Oklahoma vs. LSU analyzing betting ...
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