This post has nothing to do with various transfer rumours floating about, it's just a fun exercise in analysing players who could be available at knockdown prices from the 3 relegated clubs in the PL, with a couple from elsewhere in Europe. Let me know your thoughts on any of the below or any other options I chose not to discuss and how they might or might not fit into our squad.
Norwich City
Norwich earned plaudits after gaining promotion with a team containing a few promising academy products. If those young players choose to continue their development at Norwich and they can keep the core of their team together they could do what Burnley have done in recent seasons by coming straight back up and securing some form of stability for a few seasons.

• Max Aarons – After a great season in the Championship, Aarons has the makings of a top PL full back. Still only 20 and will demand a big fee, Spurs and Bayern are among interested parties. Played in all but 2 of Norwich's PL games, registering 2 assists and creating 7 'big' chances in a team who only scored 26 goals. RB is a position that there has been some talk of creating depth and for this Aarons could be a solid signing, but he will want first team football and United may prefer to keep Dalot/TFM and hedge their bets on Ethan Laird's development or instead bring in more experienced cover.
• Ben Godfrey – CB is a position which has been highlighted as key for United to strengthen in this window. Jones, Rojo and Smalling look out the door while Bailly and Tuanzebe have had injury issues. Despite Norwich's woeful season, Ben Godfrey has came out with some credit. At 22 this campaign will have given him a good education in PL defending. Maguire, Robertson and Wan-Bissaka are good examples of how playing in a weaker team can aid a defender's development. Dortmund and Leipzig are among suitors with a reported asking price of £50m potentially ruling United out of the running.
• Jamal Lewis – An often underrated member of Norwich's squad this season, Lewis has had a solid if unspectacular campaign. Question marks as to whether his ceiling is higher than Brandon Williams, and once again he may prefer to stay at Norwich and start every week.
• Todd Cantwell – Registered 6 goals and 2 assists in a promising showing for the 22 year old. A big reported target for Spurs and Sheffield United with the ability to play on either flank as well as centrally. May not want to come to sit on the bench but could be a cut-price option to replace Lingard or Pereira.

Watford
After reaching an FA Cup Final last season, only to be demolished 6-0 by Man City, Watford seem to have been scarred by the experience. An 8-0 loss at the Etihad in September was followed up by a 4-0 loss which set them up for relegation. A club with trigger happy owners, they have gone through 6 permanent managers during their 5 season stay in the Premier League.

• Gerard Deulofeu – A player who has shown flashes of brilliance during his time at Everton and Watford, Deulofeu is still only 26 and will be keen to make something of his career after a disappointing and short-lived return to Barcelona a few years ago. Had a great 2018-19 season chipping in with 10 goals and 5 assists. Scored 4 an assisted 5 this season but had his season ended by a ruptured ACL in Watford's 3-0 win over Liverpool. Like Cantwell, Deulofeu can play across the front line and offers something different to our other options. Talk of a move to AC Milan or Valencia is on the cards with an exit to Europe seeming more likely than a move to another PL club.
• Abdoulaye Doucouré – A standout performer for Watford in recent seasons, Doucouré was likened to Patrick Vieira as a young midfielder. Now at 27, it is clear that his ceiling is lower than that but he is still a tidy player and a solid midfield presence in the PL. Reported interest from PSG, United and Chelsea in the past year came to nothing, while a reported bid of £36m by Everton was rejected. Has spoken of his desire to play at a higher level and has stated that he wants to remain in the PL.
• Ismaila Sarr – The 22 year old showed promise in the second half the season before lockdown. Has been linked with a move to Liverpool while some Arsenal fans have been calling on their club to make a bid. Rated around £30m, a move seems pointless for United if they want to upgrade the Right Wing, with Greenwood and James providing equal or better options and Sancho being several levels above.
• Troy Deeney – Mr Watford. Deeney is a leader and while he just turned 32, he is keen to show that he still has something to offer at this level. Managed 10 goals this season but offers something more than goalscoring. Has a fascinating story and could be a real addition behind the scenes. A demanding player with lots of cojones, he may not have what it takes to be an option of the bench for United and isn't as polished in front of a camera as the PR folk would like. Deeney has been a rumoured target for Burnley and will hope to see out his twilight years by adding to his tally of 47 Premier League goals.
• Danny Welbeck – Scored 2 goals post-lockdown and managed an assist as Watford failed to beat the drop, DWelbz is a great option to bring in as a back-up striker. Imagine the hashtag #Welback and you will be surely sold on the return of the Manchester native and Red's academy product. Or not.

Bournemouth
After failing to fix their defensive frailties, Bournemouth have instead blamed their relegation on Hawkeye not working in Sheffield United vs Aston Villa. Eddie Howe has earned plaudits for taking the club from League Two to the Premier League and surviving for 5 seasons with a smaller club with a small stadium and limited resources. Bournemouth have played some good football and earned some great results during their time in the PL, putting up the best fight to beat the drop post-lockdown of the 3 relegated clubs.

• Ryan Fraser – Fraser left the club as a free agent, after heavy interest from Arsenal last season did not materialise into a move. He rejected a short term extension and seems keen to kick on. The Arsenal interest seems to have distracted him with this season with 7 goals and 14 assists in 2018-19 dropping to 1 goal and 4 assists this term. Can play on either wing but prefers the left. Interest from Arsenal and Liverpool appears to have dropped off along with his form. A move to Crystal Palace seems likely, especially if Zaha leaves.
• Nathan Aké – After Ole chatted with Aké on the pitch after United's win against Bournemouth last month, the rumour mill has started churning. As mentioned previously, CB is a position United need to build depth and he 25 year old will be keen to remain in one of Europe's top 5 leagues with Euro 2021 on the horizon. Nathan Aké appears to be a more realistic target for United, with City and Chelsea also hovering. The defender is reported to not have a relegation clause reducing his wages so Bournemouth may need to let him go to balance the books, especially given the financial pressures created by Coronavirus. A player with some potential to still reach and proven PL experience, Aké is quick and agile which has been touted as a good match for Maguire's qualities.
• David Brooks – Brooks has emerged as another target for Spurs. After a great first season in the PL, Brooks missed most of this season due to injury and Bournemouth missed his creativity and ability to find space. The player has just turned 23 and could prove a good replacement for Lingard or Pereira, if other targets prove too expensive or aren't available.
• Josh King – United wanted King in January but were put off by Bournemouth's reported £30m price tag. King managed 2 appearances during his time at United, neither in the PL and was reportedly devastated when the January move fell through. At 28 he does not fit the brief of young promising talent, but his flexibility, proven PL quality and being an academy product may count in his favour. Has spent the same amount of time in the PL as Anthony Martial, scoring 48 goals and providing 15 assists in 161 games compared to Martial's 51 goals and 25 assists in 145 games. King could well make the move to United this summer and at a fee significantly less than the £30m demanded by Bournemouth in January.
• Callum Wilson – Wilson has been Bournemouth's true success story in the PL, scoring more goals each year until last season's total of 14 dropped to a disappointing 7 this time around. At 28 he is once again a target for Spurs with the current fee being reported at around £10m. As a backup striker, he might prove a cheaper option than keeping Ighalo but may wish to move to a club where he can play more minutes and find a way into the England squad for Euro 2021.

Other players from relegated clubs in Europe

• Marc Roca (Espanyol) – Linked with a €15m move to AC Milan and rumoured interest from Real Madrid and Arsenal with previous interest from Bayern. Standing over 6ft, the 23 year old may have been a decent long-term replacement for Matic. Solid defensively and a good passing range, he seems the kind of player who United have craved in recent seasons to release Pogba forwards as well as having the ability to launch accurate long balls to United's pacy forwards which would prove especially useful on counterattacks.
• Sandro Tonali (Brescia) – Serie A still has 2 rounds left to play, but Brescia are already confirmed as going down. Tonali has been a bright light for Brescia this season, providing 7 assists from a deep midfield role as well as making 3 appearances for Italy. The 20 year old is a physical presence in midfield and his ability to read to game has drawn comparisons with the great Andrea Pirlo and spiked interest from Serie A's big guns. AC & Inter appear set to battle it out for his signature in deals around €30-40m while Tonali has also been linked with Juventus and Liverpool where he would certainly be a great long-term upgrade on Jordan Henderson. As with most wonderkids, there have also been various reports of interest from pretty much every major European club, including United.

Any INTP knows the odds are against them all the time and that is enough to deter them. But I've always been a gambler. In middle school I got a multigame mini pool table, table tennis, and Roulette wheel and card table. My friends would come over and gamble money or things. My friend's mom disapproved and made him give me some stuff back (haha). I just didn't know I had to rake games to be "the house." In middle school the black kids taught white kids craps and we'd shoot for dollars. I still love a good dice game. We'd have them on payday after close a couple jobs ago. The shit talking is so much better than poker games.
In HS I gambled poker and chess a lot. My favorite poker game was played where everyone had 2.25g of shrooms in them. No poker faces and it didn't last that long. Not great at poker. I've gambled on Chess pretty successfully. Not great at Spades.
But I'm an INTP and Casinos aren't my thing. Rather gamble at pool at a dive bar.
That said I'm doing a lot of sports betting right now. I once read that a professional sports gambler only wins 55% of the time but they have advanced knowledge in props, parlays, hedging etc. I just figured at college and to a lesser extent pro football, I could pick the winner above 55% maybe even against against--the-spread. My favorite former gf was good at betting on the ponies because she was into horses and leased one, so she had similar inside knowledge as someone who's watched football for 25yrs
I put $150 deposit and got $165 because they passed some BTC savings onto me. First week I bet the full $165. I remember the bets too. $45 on Duke (Lost but beat the spread) Same with the $45 I put on S. Alabama. $45 on Coastal Carolina who won outright against Kansas $45. Because the house rakes the games I'd only win about $40 off each so that's $270. But I put a $30 parlay on all three winning and won $180. Turned $165 into $360 (not exact--change and some numbers were rounded). I qualified for a bonus $165 for betting everything. That's a cool $425.
I thought "Holy Shit I can just go pro" beginners luck. It was also right after I lost my job and I'm moving for a new one mid October. Back to my home city and old neighborhood. Pretty psyched really except moving is a hassle.
Two weeks ago lost $70. I thought that comes with the territory of a pro sports better. I broke even last week. This week I chose a new strategy and bet on 7 games instead of 3. Truth was I don't know a certain percentage. I know games I "know" but I only lost $60. It just feels worse because I went 1-6 instead of two weeks ago when I went 1-2. Plus I lose some change on the low probability parlays.
The problem is that I just dipped into my other $165 to bet on pro football. Put in a couple bets and a parlay. The winnings get transferred into my main account. I'm still up either $80 in my account (I can't cash in the "free money")
My floor is $200 because I wanna make at least $50 off this fun lil exercise but I see how addictive it is for the first time. I even sought out a Bitcoin chess gambling site mainly used by Africans but I don't play because either I'm not better at Chess than Nigerian Royalty or they use chess bots or both. It also was pretty obviously used for money laundering which is what the gambling sites are also used for. Now I'm betting on Sunday football. Not just Saturday.
I guess my cashout ceiling is a grand but I don't see that happening haha.
Point is that wk2 college football this year was like my first joint, the first time I mixed valium-codeine-and a belt of scotch at 14. The first time I painted something halfway decent under a bridge at 16. The first time I fucked a girl at 17. The first time I had an audience in stitches at 22 (standup). All very pleasurable and only relatively routinely done. Except maybe sex and drugs but they have other major downsides.
Hell when I learned to read at 8 I was attached to books my whole life but nobody thinks that's bad. Haha.
Do other people gamble?
I'm extraverted enough that if someone has dice on the street I'll shoot or if they have a chess game at a coffee shop. I'll bet $20.
Best in person bet was with a frenemy in my group who was the epitome of iamverysmart and everyone in my group thought he was a genius. I took $20 off him in front of everyone and he refused to try to win it back. Bad look for him.
I hope I can keep it just for fun. Any other INTP gamblers on here?
Edit: Forgot to mention I won $400+ in a $20 pool for the 2011 March Madness B-Ball tourney. I watched none of the regular season (like usual) but knew UConn was good but nobody picked them as they were a #3 seed. I didn't win most rounds either. Dumb luck. It's funny that I forgot because it was less recent than that grudge match against that guy I played chess against.

!!!!DISCLAIMER:!!!!
Before you even start watching this for entertainment and see if you get offended by this un-P.C. content. Don't be a pussy.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Igsb3ejgbL8
If you can't handle it, leave this thread. If you can, then you may proceed to the next level.
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📰📜Story📜📰:
I've been scatter-brained, ire-filled, soul-searching and lost after a 7-day Degen Marathon that brought a shit load of misfortunes. I used to hate social media, but I've learned how to wield the soc. med. sword like a fucking Degen Jedi. I'm going to promote an honest cause where I seek to be victorious in the end. Just you watch you fucking doubters, haters, blockers, scammers. How much grit and intellect would the average fucking person have to endure what I've gone through in the last fucking 48 hours and still come out alive with a sense of greater purpose?
Had about $400 to $500 in righteously earned bonus dollars earned through impossible grinding degen mission that came pretty close to accomplishing (91%).
I would have had some imaginary >$600 BR by now, but instead the roll-over deadline caused the entire deposit to be forfeited and I manage to salvage some $100.
Due to a bonus rollover scheme, 80U of my balance was stuck in bonuses and if I fail to accomplish the roll-over by the deadline, it all gets forfeited.
With a $500-$600 balance, I could have somewhere at $900-1000 by now after a 20-2 W-L record on European football on Wednesday.
How did I get that record yesterday, by sampling a bunch of solid pre-game picks and live betting using my own fucking brain. I consult with the finest in capping. With $10-$20 bet sizes, That would have put me up maybe $15x16 = +$240 at minimum. $1000 was the imaginary bank roll. As of today, betting with $1 units, after Monday-Wednesday's successful run, while Tuesday was a -$50 blip, I converted $100 to about close to $200 (40U).
🤪🤑Psycho Betting🤑🤪:
I learned the art of psycho betting. Taking some well-advised 10U and 30U psycho bets that put my bankroll up a significant amounts, but a big loss does the opposite. Yesterday I manage to hit 4 grand 30U slams in a row, however many on juiced lines, so each $30 bet one returns about $15-20. Thus my bankroll grew nearly +100 units and sits close to $200 from the initial $100 I manage to salvage after that bonus robbery.
If you want to fucking learn the art of Psycho-Betting to the extremest and be successful at it, fucking put in $100 in Bovada (remember to use money that you can afford to lose) and get that fucking bonus for the purpose of looting the bookies in a successful vengeance scheme. This guy is a fucking Artillery: https://twitter.com/GoTimeCappers.
Fucking hit more than 4x30U grand slams yesterday and some 10-20U cherries on top. I tailed his free picks and other through consultation [Haha fucking reddit/sportsbook will probably ban me for promoting another tout, :)].Of course with my $1.5U size on a crippled bank roll, I cannot grow it to as much as I wanted to using GoTime's techniques. I would have been at another +$400 if I had $6 units. It's a high risk and high reward system, but if you are confident with your picks you go big on it. If you lose it, then you grind back with smaller 10U and 20U bets to try to get back to part to be able to do another 30U bet. The goal is to be like 2-1, 3-0 on 30U grand slams a day. There is some level of sustainability and back up plans to execute in case the 30U bet did not work out. It is very improbable for you to lose 10 in a row on well researched picks that the experts in the community have common agreement on. A lot of the times, the lines shift to reward you less for the pick since big money is already on the pick.
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!!!!!DISCLAIMER: DO NOT READ BEYOND HERE IF YOU HATE MATH OR HAVE AN IQ OF < 89!!!!!
Use the chart on: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IQ_classification
Here is a Nice Calculation to do:
📚📑💻Stats 301 Question in Degenalytics💻📑📚**:**
Lastly I asked anyone in the past few days to do a Stats 301 question with Degenalytics Context: To fucking determine the probability that an avg Joe with a $100+100 Bonus Bank-roll or $500 + 250B bank roll can actually pull off the $3000/$7500 grind in some number of N months betting with supposedly 2 full months of real sports (N-2) getting Obliterated by COVID-19. I want you to give me an analytical calculation or a simulation of your work and give me all the possible scenarios.
Then give the final verdict of if that number converges to 0.000% or 100.00% that the average Joe would succeed his false-hope mission for a successful rollover.
In other words think of it like this: If the average joe bets his entire bank roll 12 or more times (roll-over is not x10 because of bookie juice), what is the probability that he will still end up in the green? Also assign a tilt probability factor that the Average Joe would go on some emotional tilt spree to end up bust again? And make it even harder by eliminating 2-3 full months of real sports (N-2.5) and having to bet on Bovada's limited shitty ass lines and shitty live odds.
If you fucking want to eliminate the -2.5 months, then allow the average joe the freedom to bet on N months of e-sports [hahah] and see where that goes.
I had a bad experience betting on e-sports for 2 months and only end up -15-20U. I'm not saying that I lost because I suck at e-sports betting or I tailed the wrong people. The Bovada lines are super shitty and limited. Most of the time, on live esports, all you see are dashed out lines as if they fucking know what the rigged result is and prevent people from doing hedge bets or try to bet opposite spreads when they are winning to guarantee an insurance 1-1 with minimal damage incurred to their bank-roll. The live betting experience on e-sports on the Bovada platform is so bad that you are guaranteed to lose in the long run. Fucking hell Bodog/Bovada even offered me a $250 deposit on 100% bonus after the Rudy Gobert day in Mid March. They advertised the joys and wonders of getting rich betting off esports.
I was so tempted to deposit, however I kind of over-slept and missed out on the dead-line so they closed the bonus offer. Pretty good relief that I did not fuck-up my real credit card and bank account by falling for that scam again. It was an accidental Grace of God moment to fucking avoid that E-sports deposit marketing scam.
BONUS Questions:
A: Calculate the number of months needed and number of successful bets required for the conservative degen 1u bettor to grind out the roll-over playing
$2.00 tug of war with the bookie.
B: Calculate the odds that a professional capper who knows how to adjust unit sizes (1u-5u), do parlays once a while, will succeed the roll-over in some
N-2.5 months or add some e-sports to have fun to keep the N factor.
C.1: Calculate the conditional probabilities for the bettor succeeding in the mission if on the first few days of betting:
i) He loses bet 1 for about $20.
ii) Wins bet 1 for about $20 to earn $17.5.
iii) Goes on a 3 game losing streak
iv) 5 game losing streak
v) Positivity case: The guy got lucky and nearly doubled his bank roll on a decent run from day. Up +100U or $200. [I'm sure that out of bad discipline the average Joe would still go -200U in the long run with a pretty high probability.]
C.2: Determine the mathematical scheme on how the Bookies can use your first few losses to eventually put you in a 60+:40- (Greater than 60% locked in bonus, less than 40% of your deposited money). Bonus:Locked funds ratio.
The Jinx-King answer: It converges to zero [hahaha], but I really am interested in know what other scenarios math and stats people have come up. And your mathematical approaches and formulae used to generate possible scenarios and probabilities. But I think it is safe to say that for the average Joe,the answer is 0.00% success rate. Bodog/Bovada knows this exactly and refuses to put a hiatus on the roll-over deadline. Instead they keep it going so that people can try to wager on e-sports and lose their entire bank roll. They are only interested it getting 100% of your locked funds so that they can buy expensive cruises, yachts, beach mansions, resort packages, etc in Aruba or some other tropical place. Where you got millions of desperate Americans, Canadians in struggling economies with lost jobs and zero positive cash-flow. About 10% or so or perhaps even more deposit money into off-shore gambling websites hoping they can roll-over their bank-roll some ridiculous number of times and make a few bucks to put food on the table.
In fact, it makes matters worst being jobless, having zero cash flow and having locked funds in scamming bookies. If you are not good at casino or sports-betting games, you would have:
A: Lose your entire deposit for failing to grind it out properly.
B: Not grind it out on time on whatever dead-line the roll-over was.
C: Even if you did successfully grind that shit out using conservative 1u betting and play $2 tug of war with the bookie, you will end up just wasting your time grinding it out for hours and hours on end. It would have been better for you to fucking find a job at some farm helping out with harvesting crops or work in meat plants so that food does not go to waste. I bet you I can make more money than your $2 tug of war in one a day picking off cans and bottles off the streets in some exercise walking/running/biking + collection routine then selling it to the recycling center for $0.05-0.25 a unit. Trust me at my university, I spot maybe about 50-200 empty/partially driven cans and bottles left on desks, lecture halls, the floor, libraries, work areas, etc. Supposed that I harvested that shit, I would be making $5-$20 a day collecting it all and going to the recycling center once every week.
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⚖Conclusions⚖:
The fucking company knows this COVID-19 closure shit and want to use it to their advantage to continue to rob millions of their customers. Last week, I tried to call customer service, chat help, email, etc. and management has spoken to plead my case to delay the roll-over dead-line in a pro-rated time frame so that customers with locked balances can resume betting with their full balance when Game 1 of any Major League Sport actually returns. They give me the same bull-shit over and over saying they decline my request. For what reason?

1. The terms and conditions written in fine print for accepting the bonus conversion challenge. "Rules are Rules."
2. They were aware my deadline of June 22 at 19:23 ET was approaching soon. They knew I was on a mission to salvage my bank roll before they yank out the 60-75U trapped in bonus balances (i.e. Ghost money). By the end of it, I realize I made a foolish mistake. Most of my wins were just from bonus money and I was rewarded $0.00 on righteous wins on expired bonuses.

Therefore Bonus money only earns bonus money which put my entire bank-roll in a 80:20 ratio where the bookies control 80U in ghost money. By the end of the roll-over deadline, they get to yank out 80U of my balance at the deadline and left me with about $100 (20U) bank roll to regrind.

1. They knew I was winning consistently making solid picks.

During my 110 hour marathon over the brutal grind of losing more than 70 hours of work, leisure and recreation; 35 hours of sleep; to a fucking impossible grind of trying to roll over some 60% of $7500 on sports I have little knowledge of capping (i.e. E-sports, Table Tennis, European football) after a few days of studying the game, I was picking up my stride to grind it to 91%. They fucking knew that if I had another day to grind, they would be coughing up +$600-800 of withdrawable balance to my account.
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Bio:😎📚🎓👨‍🎓
I am a Fucking PHD Candidate (2-6 months from graduating and not having to pay another round of BS tuition) who does a shitload of mathematics, statistics, simulations, mathematical physics, wrote scientific papers. I've won T.A. Awards, Government/Provincial/Institutional level scholarships, Conference presentations, with even Undergrad honors back in the day. DM me if you need a fucking CV to prove my fucking credentials.
Why am I able to write a lot of shit? Because my fucking brain operates on some max level Intel Xeon chip on overclock mode and I cannot do much to shut it down other than going to sleep. They only way is to write articles that I think might benefit the community.
I have a crazy interest in sports and Degen'ing. I love to fucking put action on sports games, be proud about making the correct calls on the outcome of games before it happens, and then boast to my circle of competitive friends about who's the fucking Boss. As tabboo as society think us degens are, I think this absolute BS. There is a pure enjoyment in watching sports and having action on it. It is nice to get paid beer money to cover a round for your buddies, or earn that rent money over a successful night of betting on shit you actually enjoy watching. Fuck I rather make $300 for one evening of enjoying sports rather than working a 9-5 dull job to try to afford rent/mortgage. If I can fucking pay off all my monthly expenses in 3 fucking successful nights of 3 hr sessions of sports matches, that would be ideal. I would take the lather over a 9-5 rat-race grind.
Overall I am "PRO" in the debate for local single sports betting bookies to be established in Canada. Get these fucking scamming off-shore books like bodog/Bovada who contribute only contribute "Bagel" to the Canadian Economy, but instead make it worst by scamming the masses of hard working or desperate people to leak out some sum of billions of dollars of national GDP. Probably the same applies to all American States, that people should not have to cough up their hard earned $$$$ to off-shore scamming bookies. I shall write an article about this later to justify my arguments later.
Ultimately I my goal is to obliterate or negate the influence of all the cons, scamming bookies, and false touts out there who are just interested in stealing people's $$$. To write out full studies on exposing their schemes in an objective lens.
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Calling me out: (Think I cannot track these pussy downvotes? I know you cowards 😂😜😎)
If you think I'm full of BS, then send me a personal DM to have a 1v1 argument the same way that Stephen A debates sports with Max Kellerman. You can downvote me or flame me with empty hate talk all you want on public threads. But don't be a fucky pussy by avoiding a debate with me. Trust me, I'm going to win and be the last one to state a real point that you will have no comeback for [haha]. Lastly, if you are open to discuss or debate with me about some issues, do some resarch/exploration, betting strategies, etc., I would love your collaboration in some projects I got going on.
Ultimately, I should help every honest worker strive towards Degen success or if not, just to purely enjoy putting action on sports games. If you are too full of yourself, then you are on your own, I bid thee adieu, and wish you all the best. However you will be absolutely declined to all services and counsel I work to provide to friends for free.
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Social Media📺🎬
Some extra Resource to how I got to this point in my mission.
Here it is for starters:
June 23, 2020: The Impossible Pursuit Reddit/sportsbook/Brag and Bitch (Tuesday)
June 24, 2020: Doubling Bank roll and rewarded Bagel: Reddit/sportsbook/Brag and Bitch (Wednesday)
June 24, 2020: How can you win 5 in a row and lose it all simultaneously? Reddit/sportsbook/What is your most impressive win?
Full Twiiter: https://twitter.com/jinxking0p5
All my media: https://twitter.com/jinxking0p5/media
Discord: ????? To be solved.
Challenges: Got a few right in progress now and a couple of drafts I am working on.
The Jinxking Crusade (In progress): https://twitter.com/jinxking0p5/status/1275516258822131714?s=20
Turns out many people cannot withdraw anything out of Bovada/bodog due to some website glitches. Will try to recover a bankroll to attempt a withdrawal, however I am likely to have the same issues too. They will make some lame excuse to not give me a cheque. Definitely no point of pursuing anything in bovada/bodog if they refuse to give you withdrawables. The goal is to get their website off outta here. As well as get them out of advertisements. They definitely pulled off some "Get the fucking money and run scheme" and you will likely not see your money again. GG
The Jinxking Challenge (In progress): https://twitter.com/jinxking0p5/status/1275661929940467713?s=20
Want to expose a bad tout who over prices the service and has a mediocre record? Tail and fade to call their their BS or mediocre non profiting record out. Also good for finding legitimate winners too. This will be a mission to expose shitty touts on Twitter the way Penn & Teller exposes BS in the market.

I tend to post a lot of OC and opinion pieces on this sub, whether it's Firing Squads for coaches or Choose Your Own Adventure games for silly fun. I enjoy doing it, although I fully realize that my own analysis is superficial and amateur.
That said, I'm willing to go "all in" on the Chargers this weekend. I feel pot committed to them at this point anyway. In the preseason, I labeled them as the best team in the NFL. And in mid-season, I doubled down on a podcast with Malourbas where I stubbornly claimed they were still the best roster overall despite the Rams rolling to an undefeated record at the time.
So let's triple down. If the Chargers lose this weekend, I will never write my own posts on /NFL again (and will not create new accounts to do so.) I will simply comment on the posts of amateurs more accurate than myself.
the reasons why I'll be right...
(1) Statistically, the Chargers have been the better team this season. "Yards per play" is a crude and incomplete metric, but the Chargers do rank better there in passing offense, run offense, and run defense. The Pats only win by a slim margin in passing defense, which can partly be explained by the Chargers missing Joey Bosa for half the year.
(2) Speaking of Joey Bosa, he's critical to this game. The key to beating the Patriots is being able to disrupt Tom Brady with your front four. With Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram, the Chargers have the chance to do that. As great as Tom Brady may be in the playoffs, he's not flawless. He's thrown 15 interceptions in his last 18 playoff games. If Bosa+Ingram can get in his face, Brady may cough up a turnover or two.
(3) I also like the Chargers' defensive backfield, highlighted by Derwin James and their corners like Desmond King. If Gus Bradley goes "small" again and benches his slower linebackers, they should be able to avoid the mismatches over the middle that the Patriots always thrive on. There's some risk that the Pats may counter and go run heavy, but I'll have to take my chances there.
(4) Speaking of run defense, Chargers DT Brandon Mebane will apparently play this week as well, despite tragically losing his baby last week. That raw emotional lift may help to some degree, but having the extra body should help even more. Mebane isn't an excellent player anymore, but he's a competent rotational lineman. Against Tom Brady and a team that can potentially push the pace, you need waves of linemen like that to stay fresh. The Chargers got some valuable reps from Isaac Rochell when Joey Bosa was out, and recently some decent play from Justin Jones with Mebane out. They'll need all their horses in the stable to fight this battle.
(5) Offensively, I'm presuming that the Chargers will be able to attack the Pats' slower and bulkier back seven. Anthony Lynn tends to utilize a lot of wide runs, whether it's a stretch play or a jet sweep. If their speedsters can out in space against this bigger defense, they can rip off some chunk plays.
(6) I am also hopeful that tight end Hunter Henry can suit up and provide yet another matchup problem for the Patriots. Henry had been waiting for his turn behind Antonio Gates in the past, but is more than capable of being a top 10 tight end (if he is indeed healthy.) Please, be healthy. I need you here, buddy.
(7) Apparently the Chargers are going to suit up two kickers after signing kickoff specialist Nick Rose this week. I'm not completely sold on that roster move (since line depth could be more crucial, as mentioned) but it's at least another card in their deck. More than kickoffs, Rose can boot long field goals and the occasional backflip kick if need be. More seriously, the Patriots always excel at scoring at the end of the half. If the Chargers have a weapon that can give them a shot at a 60+ yard field goal, then it may be the difference in a close game.
(8?) More than anything, the reason that I want to bet my sub career on the Chargers is because I do not believe that there's a fundamental difference between playoff success and regular season success, and any results to the contrary can be chalked up to sample size. I hate when the results of close games get locked into iron-clad narratives that hang over a players' career. This game is a great test case for that with two quarterbacks on the complete opposite side of the coin with the GOAT and Philip Rivers (aka Peyton Manning's true little brother.)
Don't get me wrong, I would not claim this a lock by any stretch. I would say the Chargers are slightly better on a neutral field, with maybe a 52% chance to win on the road. But if I can take a bold stand on a road underdog with at least a 50% chance, I'll do it.
You should, too. $100 to win $160 profit -- let's all go down with this ship together.
the reasons why I'll be wrong...
The obvious ones: Belichick, Brady, all the titles, homefield advantage, etc. And of course, betting on Rivers and the Chargers in the playoffs is always risky itself since there appears to be some weird voodoo curse on them.
But football gods be damned. Give me the Chargers! No point spreads, no hedging, no backtracking. They win this game, or I'm OUT.
update
Whoops. Turns out my insight is about as accurate as a Nathan Peterman pass. To make matters worse, I knew that the Chargers struggled to stop receiving backs this year. What I didn’t realize is that Gus Bradley would stubbornly keep a deep zone and a safety 20 yards back against a team that throws short passes all day long (even on third and shorts.) Way to go, Gus. Never stop doing you, buddy.
More seriously, congrats to Bill Belichick, Tom Brady, and the football gods for smiting another heretic. This wasn't a tough-luck loss on my end; this was an epic beatdown. And due to my horrible take and my blasphemy, I will stand true to my word and never post OC threads on this sub again.
And another serious note, the reason that I made that stupid pledge is less a desire to be a hot take artist and more a desire not to be. My wife and I are expecting our first child in a few months (knock on wood) so I will have a lot less free time on my hands. I did genuinely think the Chargers would win, but I didn’t mind losing because I need to start studying these baby books and stop babbling so much on these boards. I will still be around to read and comment on your own OC and opinions though; hope you do a much better job than I did!

Team: The Carolina Panthers

Division: The NFC South

It’s that time of year again! After a season that could best be described as “a hangover you don’t deserve”, we watched the Panthers soar to a 6-2 record. After a beatdown of eventual playoff caliber Baltimore, It finally looked like we were poised to shrug off our non-consecutive winning streak habit. But it was not meant to be. A combination of shallow defensive depth and a lingering shoulder issue for Cam Newton saw us collapse down the stretch, and we ended 7-9 winning only a single game. After watching the sharp downturn of our fortunes, questions surrounding our QB’s health and a major exodus of our most tenured veteran talent, one could be forgiven for a glum outlook on the franchise’s future going into this offseason.
But despite the spirit in which we entered it, this offseason has been a resounding success. And one that leaves little doubt that we’re an improved team despite our more prominent losses. What follows is a point for point breakdown in how we made the transition from collapsed contender to potential comeback story.

Coaching Changes

None whatsoever.
From both the commentator sphere and other fanbases, the Panthers were pretty roundly rebuked for hiring offensive coordinator Norv Turner. Despite alarms being raised over 7 step drops and an over reliance on deep shot, Turner was a revelation for our offense. He apparently meant every word of emphasizing high completion throws and taking pressure off of Cam, and we began to see looks for our QB that were totally absent in the Mike Shula era. He’s now had a chance to throw dump offs, and to have reliable comeback options. Cam, prior to breaking down, was enjoying one of the best seasons of his career and despite the shoulder injury, still finished with a career high completion percentage. Christian McCaffery, our other offensive mainstay, saw his rushing efficiency go from 3.7 YPC his rookie season to 5.0 yards in year two, with his total scrimmage yardage upticking from 1,086 to 1,965 in Norv’s new passing and blocking system. Turner’s tenure thus far has been an unmitigated success and a refreshing change of pace from the stale, dull system we fell into under Shula.
The other transition, from Steve Wilkes to Eric Washington at defensive coordinator, yielded decidedly more mixed results. Washington, simply put, was not good in his transition from the DL coach. In over his depth. He struggled all year, culminating in Rivera assuming defensive playcalling down the stretch. The turnaround in our defense once he did was remarkable, though by that point, Cam was falling apart so visibly that what happened on that side of the ball no longer mattered. Washington has been retained for the upcoming season, but Rivera’s going to keep the playcalling duties.
And captaining the ship is Rivera himself. Despite a call for his head among our fanbase’s more frustrated elements, Rivera was kept for 2019. And I’m glad for it. All or Nothing (though I’ve not had a chance to see it) provided a window into his management style, vindicating some like me who pushed back against narratives that he was a dispassionate robot. And while I’m a bit higher on Ron than many, I don’t think it’s unsafe at all to say that none of the coaching hires would have represented an obvious upgrade. At the end of the day, Rivera lead a squad to 6-2 before his QB’s season derailed, which is not really on him. He could maybe be criticized for letting Washington fail for too long, but at the end of the day, few of our woes from last year can be solely attributed to him. While this is certainly a put up or get out year for Rivera, I have little doubt that he’ll be leading the gang come 2020 as well.

Departures

Thomas Davis, LB - Now we get into the stuff that hurts. And this one really, really hurts. I understand it. We needed to figure out whether Thompson could stand on his own like, yesterday so we can decide his long term potential. Davis, while still playing at a high level, is an old man for the position he plays. Letting him walk was a logical decision. But none of it changes the fact that Davis has been the soul of this defense for over a decade, and was easily one of the most beloved players and leaders over the 14 years he spent with us. He will be missed, both for his play and his spirit.
Julius Peppers, DE - Speaking of franchise staples, long time DE and future Hall of Fame inductee Julius Peppers’ watch has ended. Unlike Davis, who we simply allowed to leave, Pep has called it a career. And what a career it was. Though almost every single article about our defensive adjustments leads off with “With Peppers retiring, the Panthers no longer have anyone who can rush the passer”, the reality is that Pep did far less than his opposite in Mario Addison to that effect. Though he came back to us in 2017 with a monster 11 sack season, that number was always misleading given how few pressures he accomplished it on. Last year, he came back down to earth. It was time, and while I wish we could have given Pep one last, Super Bowl winning hurrah, a new direction was needed.
Ryan Kalil, C - Ryan Kalil rounds out our list of beloved departing veterans. The anchor of our offensive line for 12 years has hung up his cleats. Of all the offseason changes, this was by far the scariest, as the difference between Cam with and without a good center of the course of his career has been stark and terrifying. Kalil was a damn good player right up to the end, though the rash of injuries he suffered between 2016 and 2018 clearly took their toll on his performance. And while we have replaced him (and debatably upgraded), Kalil was both a locker room leader and a damn good contributor that will be missed by all.
Devin Funchess, WR - We now get into the departures who will be less missed. Funchess, admittedly, gets a bit of a bad wrap from our fanbase who often talk about him as though he were trash. While not trash, he is at least very replaceable. In fact, Funchess replacement began well before the expiration of his contract, as he had been fully supplanted by rookie DJ Moore and sophomore Curtis Samuel down the stretch last year. By the end, he was a healthy scratch. While I’m sure he’s going to put up numbers in Andrew Luck’s offense, Funchess is no sort of elite talent. He’s a big body who fails to gain separation and who inconsistently leverages his size to his advantage. I view his upside as a Brandon LaFell type of guy. And that type of guy is no longer a fit for what we’re trying to do.
Matt Kalil, OT - If the Carolina fandom is ambivalent about Funyun’s departure, we’re positively giddy about this one. Cut with a June 1st designation, Kalil saved us the money that allowed other moves to be possible. Though the shine has come off the diamond that was Gettleman’s tenure with us, the man often doesn’t get the credit he should. He did do a great deal for us, particularly his completely unheralded building of our OL (No less than 3 of our 5 starters this coming season will have been Gettleman acquisitions). But by far the biggest mistake in his tenure was the massive albatros of a contract he doled out to Matt Kalil, who could not have failed more spectacularly (or predictably) to live up to it.
Mike Adams, FS - I speak on behalf of the fanbase when I say that we have nothing but respect for Adams. He was a solid player and a veteran leader who spent his last two years giving lift to a secondary that hasn’t seen a great safety tandem since the Clinton Administration. But your eyes don’t deceive. We really were running his 37 year old ass out there as a free safety. And that simply could not be allowed to continue. I wish Adams the best, but it was time to move on.

Arrivals

Matt Paradis, C - Here’s the fun stuff. After losing Kalil to retirement, we signed former Broncos safety Matt Paradis to replace him. At only 29, Paradis represents a significant youthening at the position, and for a guy whose upside is top 5 at the position, we got him at a significant discount. Obviously that discount was due to medical risks, which prompted his release by the Broncos in the first place. But Paradis’ has been fully cleared from day 1 and avoided the PUP list. By all accounts, he’s in tip top shape. We’ll obviously see how that holds up as the season gets underway, but Paradis is definitely one of the steals of the 2019 free agency period and I could not be happier to have him. His arrival is enormous for our prospects, and has turned our biggest positional question mark into an area of strength.
Daryl Williams, OT - It’s a bit disingenuous to call Williams an arrival, as he never actually left. But that he never left is nothing short of remarkable. After a 2017 All Pro season, Williams suffered a major setback of an injury in 2018 training camp that eventually turned into a season ending injury after he tried to rush back. Still though, the League is constantly hungry for All Pro level OT talent and I was sure Williams was going to get scooped up. Instead, he signed a 1 year, $6 million deal to come back to us, and short of black magic I’m not entirely sure how Marty Hurney pulled it off. Williams is a terrific player who can play many parts of the OL. He can slot in at LG if rookie OT Greg Little can win the LT job, but also provides insurance at LT if he can’t. He and Moton playing opposite one another represents the best OT tandem that Cam Newton has ever enjoyed.
Gerald McCoy, DT - Awwwww yeah! My all time favorite Tampa Bay Buccaneer is now a Carolina Panther. McCoy is a rock solid DT who truly needs no introduction from me. How we plan to use him is a bit murkier, but use him we definitely will. I suspect to see McCoy playing DT opposite Kawaan Short in our 3-4 looks (more on that in a minute), to line up next to him in our 5-2 looks, and to work with him on pass rushing 4-3 sets. He adds more juice to a pass rush that already saw a healthy injection of talent this year, and is more consistent in the run game than some of the other DL on the roster, which was a notable area of weakness last season. He fits the versatility first mold that’s going to allow Rivera to mix up our defensive looks as transition fully to a hybrid, and is a terrific leader in the locker room besides. Our beat writers have described him as “joined at the hip” with Kawaan Short, and I fully expect the pair to make one another better.
Bruce Irvin, OLB - Perhaps the first real signal that this wasn’t going to be the Carolina defense of yesteryear, Irvin is a vet leadership, change of pace signing. In moving to a hybrid defense, we acquired a number of rookie talents to complement OLBs like Marquis Hayes. Irvin rounds out that group, and provides us with a valuable cog in pass rushing sets and a good leader for the younguns. Though he’s not as disruptive as he once was, Irvin is a rock solid player who provides us with quality depth and leadership.
Chris Hogan, WR - A graduate of the Patriots Random White Guy Academy, Hogan flashed serious potential for his first couple of years in New England before getting gradually phased out of the offense. I’m not expecting much, but he has the potential to help us on deep balls and it’s generally never a bad thing to have more talent at WR.
Aldrick Robinson, WR - Robinson does one thing and one thing only, which is catch touchdowns. Conveniently, that’s one thing we struggled with last season. But with Greg Olsen now fully healthy and a sudden wealth of other options at WR, I would give Robinson long odds of making the roster.

Draft

Pick 1.16: Brian Burns, DE/OLB - I am still in shock that Brian Burns was available at pick #16. I wanted him very badly, but I was certain he’d be an Atlanta Falcon. Instead, people allowed him to fall all the way to us and I couldn’t be happier. Burns is the apotheosis of what we’re trying to accomplish with our defensive transition. He’s a guy as comfortable upright as he is with his hand in the dirt. While he lacks strength as a run defender, he has incredible burst off the edge and a ludicrously high ceiling as a pass rusher. I think he landed on a terrific team to turn that potential into reality and I’m extremely excited about what he can do with us.
Pick 2.37 Greg Little, OT - Every description I’ve ever read of Little has described him as “Pro Ready”, and the team clearly drafted him with an eye on starting at LT. Luckily, we’ve hedged that bet a bit with the Daryl Williams signing, but Little still projects as a talented young player with a high floor and a well rounded skillset. If not the LT starter this year, he’ll almost certainly have the job to himself next season.
PIck 3.100 Will Grier, QB - Boy did this piss people off at the time. Though cooler heads have since prevailed, this pick was seen by one group of reactionaries as an indictment on Cam’s health, and another as a wasted pick on a player who will never produce for us. The reality is neither. While Cam’s health is in good shape (put a pin it), we were put in a position last year in which he needed to rest a clearly deteriorating shoulder, but we had no faith in the men behind him to win games. If that’s the state of your backup, you need a better backup. This is a team that has seen playoff runs hinge on a game or two that Derek Anderson filled in for. So even as high as pick 100, Grier was a worthy investment. In terms of his playstyle, Grier slots as an accurate QB with a good deep ball and a cerebral style, but average arm strength and mediocre release.
Pick 4.115 Christian Miller, OLB - Like Burns, Miller projects as a do-all DE/OLB who can play either upright or down low. He’s an athletic prospect whose game is a bit raw, but who checks all the measurable boxes. Likely a top 50 player before injuries kept him out of the pre-draft process, Miller represents a hell of a value at 115. I suspect we’ll see he and Burns as long term staples of the pass rush.
Pick 5.114 Jordan Scarlett, RB - This was a bit of an odd one, but I’ve warmed to it over time. Scarlett is a bruising, violent running back who I’m almost certain was drafted to lend a hand in the red zone. As a change of pace to CMC, the two could not be more different. But coaches thus far have raved about his conditioning and power, so the pick may not have been as crazy as it looked at the time. Having said that, while I don’t think anyone should ever get upset over a 5th round pick, I do think we could have found better value at this position. Scarlett wasn’t likely to be gone by the time we selected our next player.
Pick 6.212 Denis Daley, OT - I like this pick quite a bit. Daley had a rough statline in terms of sacks allowed when facing a veritable who’s who of elite college pass rushers (Jachari Polite, Josh Allan, Clelin Ferrell among them). But in spite of that, scouting reports consistently cite both his physical gifts and his improvement as the season went on. If he can cut down on his most egregious habits (most notably his overeager lunging at edge rushers), he has legit starting potential.
Pick 7.237 Terry Godwin, WR - Godwin’s whole game is predicated on speed and football IQ. At 5’11, it’s certainly not coming from his physical measurables. But he was by all accounts a high work ethic, smart players who contributed admirably in his four years as Georgia starter. Godwin’s ceiling is likely a Curtis Samuel backup, but his early rapport with Cam makes me think he’ll stick on the roster despite his late draft spot.

Strengths and Weaknesses

Offense - With Cam’s health reportedly looking good (particularly his ability to throw deep; something he was never capable of throughout Camp) and the team adapting so well to Norv Turner’s system, I think offense as a whole is a good place to start. Though I said it last year, only to be hilariously wrong, Greg Olsen is operating at 100% as well, which provides a boost to our red zone effectiveness that is difficult to measure. By the end of last year, both DJ Moore and Curtis Samuel appeared to be on the cusp of a major breakout, both proving themselves so reliable that Devin Funchess was a healthy scratch by week 17. Those two should continue to grow, and Jarius Wright has proven to be a valuable slot receiver. And, of course, there’s CMC, who will continue to be our best offensive weapon not named Cam Newton. With good health and plenty of diverse options, I suspect the good times to continue to roll as we enter year two of Turner’s stewardship.
Offensive Line - I can’t emphasize this enough, but our offensive line is nasty. With Williams’ return, we now have an All Pro OT to pair with breakout sensation Taylor Moton, which makes for an excellent tandem. Matt Paradis replaces, and if we’re being honest, provides an upgrade over Ryan Kalil, and Trai Turner is as effective a RG as ever. LG will likely be manned by whichever of Williams or Little doesn’t win LT, and Greg Van Roten (who’s performed admirably at the position) is still in the building as well. This is a very solid group of players, and a massive upgrade over what we had to work with last year.
Pass Rush - This was a major area of concern last year, but I’m happy with where we’re at now. The transition to a hybrid defense was the right call for our personnel set, and between the draft and free agency, we’ve upgraded across the board. McCoy is a huge boost to our interior pressure and Brian Burns should contribute immediately. Efe Obada will likely continue to grow, and the new system is a much better fit for talented sophomore Marquis Hayes. Irvin is solid rotational addition as well, and Mario Addison is as stalwart a pass rusher as ever. All in all, we’ve gone from an extremely one dimensional pass rush to one that is versatile and capable of throwing multiple looks at our opponents. We will be hard to predict and hard to stop when we come at the QB next year.
Weaknesses
Run Defense - Though I’ve seen little attention paid to it, I’m very concerned about our run defense this year. Although we’ve beefed the hell out of the defensive front, few of these pieces excel in run defense. McCoy has mostly staked his reputation on being a 3 tech. Hayes, Miller and Burns were all flagged as prospect that lacked run support talent. Poe was miserable in defending the run last year, and it’s never really been Short’s bag. In terms of yards per carry, we finished 8th overall which sounds good. But this was mostly on the strength of changes when Rivera took over the playcalling, as backs tended to run over us consistently early in the year. As long as we have Luke, our run defense will be solid. But I do worry that with so much (needed, mind you) emphasis put on rushing the passer, we’ve left off this part of the game.
The Secondary: As always with us, the secondary is a concern. It is, to be fair, less a concern than in previous years. Donte Jackson and James Bradberry both enjoyed very solid campaigns last year, and the former has allegedly done a lot of growing over the previous season. Eric Reid represents a good, solid strong safety. But free safety is, as ever, a mess. The job is going to sophomore player Rashaan Gaulden, but I think his capturing the position unopposed has less to do with what coaches see in him, and running out of money after doling out contracts to Paradis, McCoy and Williams. Our secondary, while improved, was inconsistent last season and was the primary reason we finished in the middle of the pack.
And honestly, that’s about it. This is one of the strongest rosters Carolina has fielded in the Riv-Era, at least on paper.

X Factors

Cam’s Health - Those of your who frequent nfl have likely seen my refrain on this many a time, but Cam’s health is not as dire as last season made it look, and the Andrew Luck comparisons have always been, frankly, crazy. In 2016, Cam tore his rotator cuff. He rushed his recovery in order to play in 2017. This created a buildup of scar tissue which, when coupled with a minor bone spur, caused a great deal of swelling this year that put Netwon in pain and limited his range of motion. It’s one of those injuries that, while not terrible by any means, does require either surgery or a great deal of rest. Cam, by virtue of being alpha and omega to this team, had the luxury of neither. The swelling persisted until he could barely throw. While that looks scary, the actual diagnosis was not that grim, and a simple shoulder scope as cleared the damage. By all accounts, he’s 100% and even making throws that he was incapable of these last two years. Bill Voth, who was the first (and for a long time, only) writer sounding the alarm on Cam’s strength as far back as 2017, has said that he’s making throws that look like his old self routinely.
However, we are putting him on a pitch count. This like likely vet maintenance rather than a source of genuine alarm. But after the last couple of years, he does make you sweat a little.
OL Health - The major fly in the ointment when it comes to Carolina’s optimism over its OL is that big if healthy caveat. If healthy, Paradis is a top 5 Center. If healthy, Williams has All Pro talent. 4 days into camp, however, neither is participating in serious pass rush drills and only today suited up in pads. It is possible that they’re just being eased along. They did avoid the PUP list, which we were almost sure was going to get Paradis at the very least. So they appear to be alright. But if they’re not, or they reinjure again, we go from being an extremely strong team to a fatally flawed one. A great deal is riding on the health of those two players, and the entire house of cards could fall apart quickly if they’re unable to deliver.
Greg Olsen - The one health flag that I do have complete confidence in is tight end Greg Olsen. Suffering a series of foot breaks, he is now moving around at 100% capacity and has been medically cleared for all activity for months. Bone breaks are, when all is written, temporary injuries that often heal stronger when they actually get a chance to heal. Our most trusted beat writers, Voth and Rodrigue, have both been crystal clear that he looks like his old self and that his connection with Newton is as faithful as ever. What I’m less clear on is his role in the offense. For years, Greg Olsen was the pivotal piece of our passing game. But with his largely being sidelined with foot injuries over the last two years, the game has moved on. Curtis Samuel and DJ Moore are both going to receive plenty of targets, and McCaffery will be a critical element to the passing game. Greg will undoubtedly be our principle red zone threat, but the growth of other options has downgraded his loss from catastrophic to merely unfortunate. What role he carves out, and what boost he’s able to give our offense, will be very interesting to watch.
4-3 No More: Much has been made of the Carolina's transition from a 4-3 to a 3-4 this offseason. And most of it is crap. We aren't exactly moving in a direction that binary. IN the past, we have strictly been a 4-3 team throughout the Riv-Era. That is about to change, but not to a 3-4. What Rivera showed last year is a willingness to mix and match personnel sets. There were 3-4 looks, 4-3 looks and even 5-2 looks. What we're moving toward is thus not a single, codified base, but a hybrid defense that can throw out a number of formations and switch between them quickly. We want players who can play OLB and DE. DTs who can play DE. LBs who can drop into coverage and rush the passer. A modern defense is one that doesn't limit itself, which is why such a premium has been put on players with positional versatility. On paper, our personnel set is very well built for this. How it pans out in practice remains to be seen. It's a very radical transitioning happening over a short period of time, and while I think our defense has the potential to be excellent, there will doubtless be some growing pains as we navigate the transition.

Positional Battles

Very little to speak of. The premier battle is going to be between Greg Little and Daryl Williams at LT. Apart from that, the timeshare that forms in different defensive sets will be intriguing. But for the most part, the roster is set.

Win Loss Predictions

I hate this part, particularly since the NFCS is a murderers row at present. The Panthers have a shot at a serious playoff run if all the chips fall right, but the Falcons are likely going to be resurgent (god you have no idea how much it hurts me to type that) and the Saints aren’t going anywhere. The Buccs I’m sure will do their best.
That alone makes pinpointing what our season looks like in terms of Ws and Ls difficult. But this year, we’re also playing the equally enigmatic AFCS, whose teams look like contenders or middlers in turns. Even our other divisional draw, the NFCW, is difficult to find the pulse of.
So rather than pretend that I know what each game is going to look like, I’m going to do what I always do; Likely wins, likely losses, toss ups.
Likely Wins: TB, @AZ, JAX, @TB, @SF, TEN, WAS
Likely Losses: LAR, @NO, @IND
Toss Ups: @HOU, @GB, ATL, NO, @ATL, SEA
So that’s 7 likely wins, 3 likely losses and 6 toss ups.
If that seems like an unusually high degree of uncertainty, that’s because it is. Last year started off strong and fell apart for reasons that are both obvious and cautiously behind us. We’ve only improved over the offseason and should be formidable. But the schedule is grueling and many questions are yet unanswered. I said in my last offseason review that last year was likely going to be a tough season, and should be viewed mainly as a proof of concept for the new ideas we were incorporating via Turner’s offense and our gradual move away from a 4-3 defense. Well, it was a tough year for reasons of which I had no inkling at the time, and it was a proof of concept. And for the most part? The concept was proven sound. So this offseason, we’ve built on it and patched over the holes that developed in it.
I know that “This offseason is a major turning point” is one of those things that gets thrown around a lot. It’s like how every Presidential election gets described as historic, as though choosing the leader of the free world could ever be anything but. But in a very real sense, this franchise has hit a turning point. Cam has to bounce back this year or he’ll face major doubts about his future contract. Rivera has to bounce back this year, or he’ll be out of a job. GM Marty Hurney has done an excellent job restocking the cupboards, but we’ve been down this road of defensive transition and an offense that eases things on the quarterback before. Last year, both ideas mostly worked, but this is the season where we must commit to them and see them through if we want to succeed with the parts we have. Thus the Panthers find themselves where we always seem to. We are a team that is as capable of going on a deep playoff run as we are forcing a total rebuild in the next two years. But for what it’s worth, I think it’s going to be a strong, “Eureka!” type season where everything finally comes together. For the sake of Rivera and company, I hope it does.

Defending the Draft: New York Giants
The Giants vastly underwhelmed this year, losing their first 2 games without any offensive production. The offense came to life in game 3, but only in the 4th quarter, and a 61 yard field goal by rookie Jake Elliott to win it for the Eagles basically defined our season. After that, the Giants would win just 3 games, sliding into the 2nd overall pick. This included the firings of General Manager Jerry Reese, second year head coach Ben McAdoo, and eventually, Vice President of Player Evaluation Marc Ross. These vacancies were later filled by Dave Gettleman, former GM of the Panthers and former employee of the Giants in various roles for the front office, and Minnesota Vikings Offensive Coordinator Pat Shurmur.
Shurmur made a lot of sense for the Giants; he had previous head coaching experience, and after a young hotshot coordinator turned first time HC flamed out in spectacular fashion, it was clear the Giants would prefer someone with some experience. Shurmur wasn’t fantastic in Cleveland, but who is really? In two seasons, he led them to a 9-23 record before being ousted as the team was sold. He is coming off of a year and a half (taking over for Norv Turner midway through 2016) of running a productive Vikings offense. One of the calling cards for Shurmur is how well he navigated the QB situation in Minnesota. He ran two very different offenses for Sam Bradford and Case Keenum, building it to suit their strengths and weaknesses. He really milked Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs, helping them break out further onto the scene. Ideally, Shurmur crafts an offense that suits the team and helps fix the offensive woes of the last two years.
Gettleman is the devil you know; his issues are well documented. Has a very BPA-centered mindset, has had issues in the past dealing with people. But his football knowledge is strong and his player evaluation skills are quite good. He wanted to bring the Giants back to old school Giants football, saying you need to do three things to win football games: Run the ball, stop the run, and rush the passer. The Giants could have tried for a younger, more out-of-the-box thinker, but they decided not to wait and to just go with Gettleman. We’ll see how that move pans out.
They also brought in former Panthers OC/QB Coach Mike Shula and former Cardinals DC James Bettcher for their coaching staff. Bettcher is the more interesting one here to me; he brings a more 3-4 oriented defense as opposed to the 4-3 that the Giants had been running with Steve Spagnuolo, but a lot of it will be similar; press man, blitz heavy play.
Going into the draft, the Giants were kind of the wild card. There were 7 prospects (where one of them would be off the board) that they could reasonably take at 2. Would they go QB? Would they take a position that people value less in a RB or an OG? Would they take a premiere EDGE? No one really knew. Everyone had their opinions of what the Giants should do, who they should take. And eventually, this could be the biggest mistake in the history of the team. Or it could work out pretty well. Only time will tell.
Round 1, Pick 2 (2): Saquon Barkley, RB, Penn State
Why RB?

Okay, let’s just get this over with. The real question that everyone wanted to ask was “why not QB???” With Mayfield going first overall, it seemed like the Giants would have a chance to steal Darnold, who many had as the best QB prospect in this draft, which had seemed impossible as most people thought the Browns would be taking Darnold. The Giants also pass on Darnold to take Barkley. Why? Well, with Dave Gettleman, positions don’t really matter. He doesn’t like to “reach” for positions of “need”, and likes to stick to the value on his board. He’ll consider need more when he has the same grades on players, but he doesn’t bump players up his board because of need. And Gettleman said after the pick that Barkley is the second player to receive a perfect grade from him; the first being Peyton Manning. That’s some high praise, and if you think Barkley is a perfect prospect, then this pick makes a lot more sense. Also, this speaks to the idea that all of these QBs had flaws. Gettleman is really a disciple of Ernie Accorsi, a former Giants GM, who firmly believes that if you’re taking a QB that high, they can’t have any big minuses, every box has to be a plus or a plus-plus. I understand the rationale of taking a QB at 2, but if there isn’t one you love, one that checks all of the boxes for you (as a GM) and your coach (especially one that has a reputation working with QBs), you don’t take them. Pretty simple to me. Shurmur was a Josh Allen fan, and Gettleman wasn’t with that, so they compromised and got a dynamic offensive weapon. Barkley immediately steps in and gives the Giants a dynamic runner that we really haven’t had in a long time (go back to David Wilson or even Tiki Barber if you’re a David Wilson hater for some reason). The Giants have struggled to run the ball for years, and Ben McAdoo’s scheme really tried to substitute the run game with the short passing game. Shurmur won’t do the same thing, so having a talented runner will be wonderful for the development of this offense.

Why Barkley?

He’s the best player in this draft in my and many other people’s opinions. He’s truly an elite and dare I say generational (just to trigger you guys) running back prospect. I think he’s better than all of the RBs to come out the last 4 years when there have been top picks at RB. I think he’s better than Gurley, Zeke, Fournette, CMC, Cook, etc. He’s skilled in every aspect, not just as a runner, but as a receiver, in pass protection. He’s elusive and quick/agile, can make defenders miss. He was 233 pounds at the combine and ran a 4.40 40, benched 29 reps, and had a 41 inch vertical. He’s a freak athlete. He’s also got a strong character, which I think Dave Gettleman is really trying to emphasize a bit. Barkley comes in, clears out the RBBC that has failed Giants fans for years, and provides a guy who could be a workhorse for us. Edge rushers can’t just pin their ears back against us and go for Eli anymore, they have to worry about the run much more.

Round 2, Pick 2 (34): Will Hernandez, OG, Texas El Paso
Why OG?

OG was probably the biggest hole on the newly revamped OL. Brett Jones seamlessly steps into the spot vacated by Weston Richburg, just as he did for 12 games during the year while Richburg was out with an injury. Gettleman went out and signed Nate Solder to take over at LT for Ereck Flowers and Pat Omameh to fill the hole at guard left by Justin Pugh, who was another cap related loss. That means that RT and one guard spot were left in limbo. We have some young tackle options, if Flowers can get his shit together and move over, then that’s an option, or they might roll with Chad Wheeler or Adam Bisnowaty, who both saw a little bit of playing time last season. Right now, my money is on Wheeler. The guard spot, however, is a little bit less stable. John Jerry’s contract was reduced, he took a pay cut and had a year chopped off of the end of his contract. John Greco and Jon Halapio are the only other options at guard. Greco is a veteran, but he’s nearing the end and playing him as a starter is probably a mistake. Halapio was the third string center last year (backup after Richburg got hurt) and started a few games at RG where he actually looked decent. But finishing the new look OL was definitely something Dave Gettleman wanted to do, and filling in that remaining guard spot with a guy on a 4 year deal is definitely something he was interested in.

Why Hernandez?

Hernandez is just a tough, mean, nasty SOB, and the Giants need that sort of intensity and fire on the OL right now. He’s a fiend and a mauler in the run game and immensely strong. But he’s still no slouch athletically, and agile enough to handle pass protection. Many people had Hernandez as a first round pick, including Dave Gettleman, so when he slid all the way to 34, Gettleman pounced. Hernandez is like the prototype of what you’d think Dave Gettleman wants in an offensive lineman, and imagining him paving the way for Saquon Barkley is something that should get Giants fans excited.

Round 3, Pick 2 (66): Lorenzo Carter, EDGE, Georgia
Why EDGE?

Something a lot of Giants fans including myself have complained about in the recent years of Steve Spagnuolo’s tenure were JPP and OV playing 95%+ of the defensive snaps. It’s critical to keep your pass rushers fresh to keep them playing at their best. And then the Giants traded away JPP, who still would have probably played off of the edge in passing downs and 4 man fronts. So now they’re short edge rushers. Avery Moss was a 5th round pick last year who showed some promise, but in general, the edge pickings were thin.

Why Carter?

Lorenzo Carter is an athlete. He’s got the skills to pay the bills, he’s explosive and he’s powerful. He played like 8 different positions at Georgia, and if given the opportunity to really develop as a pass rusher, I think he has a chance to be really great. Gettleman wanted to move up to grab him, but couldn’t get a deal done. Luckily, he ended up sliding right into Gettleman’s waiting arms. He’s still a versatile player though, so he can be used in other ways. Carter should fit right in to James Bettcher’s defense as a predatory pass rusher in addition to Kareem Martin and Olivier Vernon.

Round 3, Pick 5 (69 Nice.): BJ Hill, DT, North Carolina State
Why DT?

This is a question I found myself asking as well. Why DT? We have the best run stopping nose tackle in the league in Damon “Snacks” Harrison (and I will not argue this point with anyone, he just is and if you don’t accept that then you’re wrong and I hate you), and 2017 second round pick Dalvin Tomlinson is a very good option at DT as well, though I expect Tomlinson to play more 5-tech in Bettcher’s 3-4 scheme. We do need another 5-tech probably, but this pick probably wasn’t it. I was a little confused by this one, but hey, Gettleman loves his big men. In the end, I think this is an extension of the logic behind Lorenzo Carter; Gettleman wanted to bolster the room and make sure we had good, reliable depth on the defensive line to keep Snacks and Tomlinson rotating, fresh, and healthy. I would probably have gone with Sam Hubbard in this case to be that 5-tech and even another edge rusher, but a backup nose tackle is fine.

Why Hill?

Well I know this wasn’t apple_turnovers favorite pick, though he may have been a little tipsy (read: drunk as a skunk) by this point on day 2 of the draft. To be honest, I don’t love it either. But Hill has some great traits, he’s got a great get-off, he’s athletic for a big man, solid tackler, and he’s got good anticipation and instincts. He’s gonna need some work in the weight room, and his pass rushing is a bit lackluster, but he’s basically projecting as a backup nose tackle. James Bettcher’s 5 techs have traditionally been between like 255 and 290 pounds, as far as I can tell (Cardinals fans can correct me on that) so I don’t know that BJ Hill at 311 at the combine (I believe) will be a 5-tech in this defense. But keeping Snacks up and running so he can continue to feast on opposing runningbacks and get the respect he deserves is absolutely something I can get on board with. If we’re going DT, I would have gone with Nate Shepherd, but Hill is okay.

Round 4, Pick 8 (108): Kyle Lauletta, QB, Richmond
Why QB?

The NFL Draft is a flat circle. Anyways, Eli Manning is 37 years old, and his play the last two years has left plenty to be desired. Gettleman and Shurmur seem to think they can milk a couple more years out of him, but having a backup plan makes sense. Lauletta now comes in with 2017 third round pick Davis Webb. I didn’t like the QB pick this late (I thought if you wanted a QB you would just take one at two), but the logic is that it’s like hedging bets. Having two young QBs developing theoretically means that the chance of one of them being good enough to take over after Eli goes up. It may not actually work that way, but that’s kind of the idea. I would rather have spent this pick on a 3rd WR like DaeSean Hamilton or a CB like Nick Nelson I suppose, players who maybe could also assist on special teams.

Why Lauletta?

Lauletta is a mechanically sound and fairly accurate passer. He throws with good anticipation. He’s basically the things that Davis Webb was not. And Lauletta is another guy that Eli can try to impart knowledge on and build into a potential franchise QB. My concern with Lauletta is that his arm strength isn’t that great, and playing in East Rutherford, the wind can be a big factor. He doesn’t have great zip to cut through the wind, so his throws might get caught up by the wind a lot. He’s got the mental game and is touted as a strong leader, but his arm strength will ultimately be his limiting reagent I think.

Round 5, Pick 2 (139): RJ McIntosh, DT, Miami
Why DT?

We kind of covered this already, but McIntosh projects more as a 5-tech. He fits more into that size and weight range for Bettcher’s 5-techs. He comes in and adds to a rotation of guys with Kerry Wynn, Josh Mauro, Jordan Williams, and some other guys. This 5-tech spot is one I was a bit concerned about coming into the year, and addressing it is a good idea.

Why McIntosh?

As far as 5-techs go, McIntosh is more of the type that I was looking for; quick, athletic penetrator who is a pass rushing threat. McIntosh plays with good pad level, he keeps his eyes in the backfield to see what’s going on, and he’s got great body control and flexibility. He’s one of few players to put up decent tape against Quenton Nelson. The problem with McIntosh is that he’s not built fully yet; he probably should have stayed in school and spent more time in the weight room. He needs to grow and fully fill himself out and get much much stronger. This might be a project sort of pick, but it’s one that could definitely pay off big.

Undrafted Free Agents of Note:

• Grant Haley, CB, Penn State

This is my favorite UDFA signing so far actually. Haley projects as at least a competitor for the slot CB job, where a massive hole remains after the release of Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie. Gettleman opted for quantity over quality for this purpose in free agency, signing a slew of cheap veteran CBs. Haley’s experience on special teams will definitely give him a great shot to make the roster and carve out a role for himself.

• Sean Chandler, S, Temple

Chandler is a versatile guy, having played numerous roles in the defensive backfield. He’s a sure tackler, but also shows some coverage ability. He can immediately challenge for a roster spot with Michael Thomas, Andrew Adams, and Darian Thompson, but he might also be a sleeper for the slot corner job, a role he played a bit in college. (Our slot corner options are slim, usually I wouldn’t be projecting UDFAs to be potential starters, but desperate times call for desperate measures.) He definitely has a shot to make the roster.

• Aaron Davis, CB, Georgia

ANOTHER DB. Davis is a little bit more prototypical for an outside corner, with more size than Haley. He was a 3 or 4 year starter for Georgia and produced pretty well. Again, he could challenge for a roster spot in a room that is pretty full, but only two or three guys have “guaranteed” roster spots.

• Tae Davis, LB, Chattanooga

Another Davis. Tae Davis is a little undersized as a LB, maybe could be like a $LB for Bettcher’s scheme. Basically, he’s a guy with LB experience who has flashed some athleticism and shown a little bit of coverage ability. LBs who can cover are a hot commodity, and the Giants depth at LB is slim. Davis has a chance to make the team.

There’s also a rumour that we might be having Brett Toth, OT, Army in for a tryout, but he’s not technically ours. He has his military service to do so that would be an investment for the future potentially. Toth was probably undrafted because of his military service requirement, otherwise he's a skilled run blocker, while his lack of pass protection experience may be a problem at the NFL level.
Summary:

Overall, you’re either going to love the Giants draft or hate it. It’s going to be the subject of debates for years. If you hate Eli and think he’s completely done right now and needed a QB, then you hate it. Lauletta isn’t really a great consolation prize for people who loved Darnold. But, if you have some faith in Davis Webb or Eli playing for a couple more years, this draft is really good. The Giants grabbed some really great value with picks like Hernandez and Carter, they got Lauletta when he was the best player on the board by a wide margin, and they got an immediate difference maker in Saquon Barkley. People are gonna continue to complain about what the Giants did or rub it in each other’s faces. Leave me out of it though please and thank you. /rant sorry

(TL;DR: Some jerkoff has thoughts about GOATs and Flashbacks, reviews of Most Feared and MUT Heroes, ideas on effecting change, and other self-indulgent things to say, and he wrote thousands of words about them instead of spreading those thoughts into separate posts.)
Ah, November. The weather is turning or has turned, your favorite football team is probably terrible and/or hamstrung by injuries — as a Gators and Packers fan, I'm in both boats with both teams, and it is phenomenal fun, let me tell you — and we're like hours from Sean Hannity trying to distinguish ephebophilia from pedophilia like half of Reddit learned to do years ago.
Here in MUTlandia, Most Feared is finally more or less over, a new Flashbacks release was the story of last week, Color Rush has arrived to make everyone the Seahawks, and the GOATs are baaack. (For a significantly more detailed day-by-day recap of events last week and so far this week, see my Weekly/Daily Changes post for last week and for an overview of what's up this week, check out this week's post from Monday.)

I Am Not Kidding You With These Baby GOATs

(Get it? 'Cause baby goats ... anyway.)
There has been some, uh, pushback on this new GOATs release, specifically related to what's been perceived as a tremendous cost to upgrade them. And I agree with the community that the hundreds of thousands of coins you would have to pay to fully upgrade Launch GOATs or even get a single upgrade on a Holiday GOAT is a big ask for most players.
I just think most of us are assuming we're the market for the GOATs — which we're not.
The first five Launch GOATs were all preorder bonuses, and it was known about two weeks before launch what they — and the three additional GOATs, Bo/Lott/Moss — were about: You got an 85 or 83 player, significantly lower than the best OVRs available on launch, and they were upgradeable. We later learned — upon launch, I believe — that they were upgradeable only via costly sets.
It should really not have been a surprise that new GOATs and new upgrade sets would also be significantly lower than the best OVRs available at the moment, and upgradeable only via costly sets — and yet it has seemed to outrage the community that MUT did what it previously did with the GOATs. I suspect this has a lot to do with the contemporaneous Battlefront 2 kerfuffle, and I'll get to that part of our discontent later, but I also think it's misplaced, at best.
Preordering the game bought you one GOAT; buying the Bo/Lott/Moss package got you one GOAT. (In my case, preordering the game too late to get the 20% off deal, cancelling my preorder when the deal returned, and preordering again got me two GOATs, to my pleasant surprise — I was absolutely not trying to pull a fast one, just to save the money on the preorder. But I digress to tell you of my secret shame!) If you picked up GOATs early on, you should have known going in that you were buying single cards valued at about $20 (the delta of the GOAT Edition above the standard edition and the price of the Squads Upgrade), for better or worse, and that those cards both started and got capped lower than the Core Elite cap. These were $20 cards that were all but explicitly meant to cater to people who wanted to play with their favorite GOAT from launch, not cards meant to be part of your lineup all year.
And I think that's fine, really. I am not a fan of any of the teams whose players were anointed GOATs, and I don't have any particular fealty to any of the GOATs, but I really enjoyed spinning unto infinity with Barry until my Level Master LT eclipsed him, and Jerry was in my lineup for a few weeks as I built my coin stack. I got value out of those GOATs when they had value on the field. My team is now a solid 90 OVR squad with no real spot for any 90 OVR GOATs, and I have no sentimental attachment to the new ones. I won't get value out of these upgrades or the NAT Baby GOATs — which probably could've been NAT from the Rookie solo sequence and auctionable from the Competitive solo sequence and been hailed as a great addition — available via solos. That's fine. I'm not mad.
But I imagine diehard fans of those players really enjoyed playing with them, and probably cared as much or more about playing MUT with their heroes than the implied value of their NAT cards capped at 87 OVR. I think some of those same fans of the players are likely to be stoked to once again be able to play with them as 90 OVR players, and will buy the Baby GOAT-stuffed bundle(s) or packs to do that. And I don't think that makes them "idiot kids" or "idiots," as Gutfoxx and TexasBoy quoted Bengal to dub them in their Market Monday video — it just makes them players who play MUT their own way, because that's their prerogative. And that's also fine.
I think we would all do well to accept that people play MUT in ways that do not always make perfect sense, or to accomplish goals that we don't have, and do a little less judging of people who don't want to (or can't) invest the time or effort necessary to make every decision a brutally efficient one — but I also know this is the Internet, so I don't necessarily have the rosiest outlook on that.

Flashback to the Future

The long-awaited third release of Flashbacks cards came on Friday, and the cards themselves (mostly) did not disappoint. All eight came in the 91-92 range, and a couple — the 92 Aaron Rodgers and 92 Josh Norman — slot comfortably into the top tier of their positions. And there's no lemon quite like the Cameron Wake or Latavius Murray from the previous release, with even the Joe Haden having strong back-of-card stats — even if he's not at the vaunted 91 Zone Coverage threshold.
But the way these Flashbacks dropped rankled many, and justifiably so. The set requirements for Flashbacks changed from two Elite Tokens to one Elite Token and four Gold and Silver Tokens, and without warning, bumping the total number of cards required for any one Flashback card from 18 (nine per Elite Token) to a staggering 97 (nine per Elite Token, 10 per Gold Token, 12 per Silver Token) and taking most of our community by surprise.
And while many were preparing for a new release of Flashbacks with a different set requirement than the existing one by stockpiling cards and/or Elite Tokens, the best means of preparing was actually exchanging those Elite Tokens for Flashbacks packs on Thursday or earlier and saving the packs until Friday — because what could have yielded a Wake on Thursday night could also have yielded a Rodgers on Friday.
I had stocked up on Elite Token components and Tokens, not Flashbacks Packs, and I had depleted my stash of Golds for the Weekly Exchange sets of late, so take the following with those caveats in mind: I am frustrated by this, but far more by the communication around it than the change itself.
Had the Flashbacks set been marked as expiring or subject to change — as sets like the Elite Token set and the Legend Upgrade set have been throughout their existence — it would have given players more of a chance to hedge their speculation, and felt less like a bad surprise when the change ultimately happened. I'm confident that a note on the set alone would have changed the tenor of the conversation about Flashbacks in the player base substantially, and I think it's unfortunate — if wholly understandable, given the very serious real-life circumstances that befell EA's best communicator on MUT this week — that we didn't get that.
I'd hope EA learns from this in regards to premium sets in the future. I'd also hope sets require fewer but more expensive cards, as nearly 100 for one player feels excessive to me, someone who buys packs sparingly and bundles never, generally acquiring 90+ percent of my players from the Auction House. But I do think that the rewards themselves from the Flashbacks Packs are suitably exciting — unless you pull Wake or Murray or Martellus Bennett — to make the release exciting in part, and I sure hope a second stage comes next Friday.

The Final Days of Fear

Most Feared is, for all intents and purposes, over, with the final artifacts remaining being unexpired sets and solos — the solos, despite hover text saying the sequences expire, are still (re)playable for me, though I do not know whether they would dispense rewards for first completions — and the last availability for the packs and bundle in stores coming last weekend. And so I think it's very much the right time to do a holistic evaluation of the promo.
For me, Most Feared was a boon, but in limited senses. I snagged the Sherman early, and I know he's going to stick in my lineup for a long time. The Demaryius Thomas, Kyle Long, Dont'a Hightower, Mychal Kendricks, and Dontari Poe that I pulled or constructed from sets will all probably figure into my lineup for weeks, if not months, as will the Evan Engram I scooped up — and the second Long I pulled covered the cost of that run of the Scary Fast Captain set, while DeSean Jackson may yet make my Flashbacks Brandin Cooks expendable.
I didn't buy anything higher than an Elite, didn't really flip the Golds and Elites when they were most profitable, and won't sell any top-tier pieces but that Long, a second Sherman, and a Myles Garrett that doesn't crack my best lineup, so I think I came out only solidly ahead on the promo, rather than stupendously so.
And while I still want the Ray Lewis and Randy Moss, the only Captains I don't have and still want are the Russell Wilson and Anthony Barr from the Scary Fast segment — players I'd love to pull, probably won't buy, and don't believe I will be chasing for the purposes of making the set at this point, thanks to the risk involved in the Elite Captain set.
My sense of the community, right or wrong, suggests that Most Feared was either a boom or bust promo for most. I can't say I saw much praise for the morph effects, which I believe were significantly more modest than the ones that drew lots of praise a year ago, and I didn't see effusive praise for the solos — though I and others seemed to really enjoy the joke of the last one in the second sequence.
I do think that many whales and/or competitive players have really liked the top-tier players — I would guess that of my 25 Weekend League games this past weekend, I played against teams without at least one of Gonzalez, Lewis, and Moss this past weekend no more than six or seven times, and Sherman has become everyone's CB1 or CB2. But I don't know that this sub captures those players' enthusiasm, as more of us seem to be grinders or non-whale competitive players, and I think the number of players with more than one of those Commanders is actually fairly small.
All that said: I think the promo was a modest success, if one that helped solo grinders more with one staple player (Sherman) than their ultimate prize (Gonzalez — who is excellent and a nuisance to play against, but not a game-changer on par with Moss or Lewis), and held its best content (Scary Fast) in reserve for too long, rendering it a first-blush disappointment to some. And while there were little problems that were also a pain — the staggered release of Scary Strong and Scary Fast players in packs was maddening, and the inability to filter by Scary Tall/Strong/Fast except by the backwards method of searching from the Sets screens was even more so — the big-picture takeaway for me is that Most Feared represented a decent first step toward creating promos that split the difference between grinders and money-spenders.
(Also, in case this isn't obvious: I expect Most Feared players to rise meaningfully in price as time goes by. I expect the Scary Fast players, especially, will retain or gain value, as so many of the Elites are budget beasts (Engram, Tarik Cohen) and most of the Elite Captains are genuinely desirable as both cards and set pieces.)

The Final Days of Heroism

While Most Feared is fading with some fanfare, the final days of MUT Heroes Packs came and went this week with less discussion. And that's a shame, because MUT Heroes arguably contributed more to the meta than Most Feared did.
MUT Heroes featured a player from every team, despite featuring just 32 players; Most Feared did not, despite 63 cards being part of the promotion. (Sorry, Jaguars: I guess your terrific defense just wasn't Scary Tall or Scary Fast enough! Maybe don't have every player play well enough for TOTW honors?) MUT Heroes yielded 32 cards at 91 Overall; Most Feared had a total of six such players, one of whom is a Reshad Jones that cannot get to 91 Zone. Most Feared's 88+ OVR players spanned 13 of the 19 distinct positions in Madden; MUT Heroes dropped 91 OVR players at every position but LG.
Prior to Richard Sherman being widely available, the Terence Newman and Aqib Talib in MUT Heroes were must-haves at CB. Even after Most Feared, the MUT Heroes OL and DL players are among the best in the game. And the presence of three 91 OVR QBs helped deflate the QB market more significantly than anything else has since — a necessity, given that the market had just been set by a ludicrously expensive Michael Vick Legends set. (Remember when I thought the Twitch Prime Randall Cunningham promised to do that? Yeah, no: The MUT Heroes QBs did that more than the Cunningham did.)
MUT Heroes also had some creative artwork, and dropped out of the blue as a welcome surprise for players who were slowly grinding the Team Leaders solos and/or finding the content at that moment a little lacking. The solos themselves were genuinely challenging — and only a few requiring interceptions were truly vexing — even if the great misstep of the promo was, of course, gating half of the solo content behind a paywall.
In retrospect, I wish that unlocking those solos had been a choice of overpaying for access with coins or buying it with points, but I'd bet that EA eschewed that choice intentionally to determine how many MUT players would pony up. I did, and I don't really regret it. But I also think my points could have been better used, and definitely prefer to pay for things in MUT with my time and sweat equity rather than real-life money — even if the real-life sum is nominal.
That alone, though, does not constitute a big enough gripe for me to devalue MUT Heroes as a meta-setting promo that did a lot of work to move MUT 18 into its post-launch ramp up to the primary holiday content. And given the nonexistent expectations for it versus the colossal ones for Most Feared, it's hard for me to say that MUT Heroes didn't deliver more relative to hype.
(Oh, and if you don't think Most Feared players will get pricier as time goes by, you should check out MUT Heroes prices to see what scarcity can do.)

Silver and Gold, and the Other Colors

The rise of Silver and Gold Tokens started with the Football Outsiders set. Five each for an 84+ player? That was a steep cost, but there sure were some attractive top-end options, so I did it once — and pulled Ryan Ramczyk.
Then there was the Color Rush set — a money pit, if I've ever seen one, even if the 50K coin cost was reasonable, given that the standard Color Rush uniforms confer no advantages beyond whatever confidence comes with looking good. It made no damn sense that Golds would shoot up to make Gold Tokens cost more than the flat 50K purchase cost, but, well, this is not an entirely rational market.
And then came the Flashbacks, long-awaited and widely coveted, and now we had a fully-fledged run on Golds — and Silvers, too, because getting a Flashbacks player then was crucial, and because gambling is always done with the hopes of rolling an Aaron Rodgers than snake eyes-ing it with Cameron Wake.
Some correction to a market that had been far too Elite-centric since Team Leaders had been eclipsed made sense, and I think everyone (myself included) on this sub going hard on the Weekly Exchange Set's gamble made it clear that folks had stockpiled Golds that were getting dusty in binders. This, though, feels like an overcorrection: Replacing an Elite Token in a set with eight other tokens that each require more cards than Elite Tokens do and consequently jacking up the sheer card cost to nearly 100 cards per Flashback pack is asking players to spend far more time on constructing a set's requirements even before asking them to invest more value in the set, and that's disappointing.
I'm wrapping around to already-trod ground, I realize, but I think the better solution for sets is actually giving players multiple paths to walk. Wouldn't it have been better for both those with tons of Gold/Silver Tokens and those with tons of Elite Tokens had there been two Flashbacks sets as of last Friday, the now-extant one and one requiring three Elite Tokens? Wouldn't more players throw the dice on the Football Outsiders set if there were a parallel to the 10-token Gold/Silver set requiring two Elite Tokens?

You Say You Want a Revolution? Well...

And that leads me to this: I think MUT's greater issue, overall, when it comes to sets and other such in-game stuff, is communicating changes and intents to players — it should not have taken a Gutfoxx podcast for a developer to share more about how stats work, for example — and I think Kraelo's existence in the community is helping MUT significantly in that regard. (Aside: MUT's greatest issue is disconnection glitching and connection in general, but it's obviously something devs know about, and I would bet anything that's something devs are working hard on, not ignoring, and that it's taking as much time as it is because netcodes are hard.)
But Kraelo is not making the creative decisions for MUT, and those who are are stuck in the same trap that the creative team behind Battlefront 2 is mired in right now: Players, emboldened by a spate of outrages (or tantrums, depending on your perspective) that have scared developers and publishers enough to effect change, think that literally every thing they dislike about the games they love enough to spend literally every day thinking about them merits getting up in arms, and the playbook that was developed by trolls who used it to cruel ends is very effective.
Game companies are trying to sell games that shot up in cost to make without a commensurate rise in selling price, and they're flailing. And no amount of transparency about that — imagine a major developer or publisher saying "Look: We make premium games for tens of millions of dollars and sell them for so little that we need to either sell an astronomical number of units or make more money on the back end to be in the black" and imagine the flaming that company would get — is going to change that essential problem.
That is also a macro-scale problem for companies, and one that is basically insoluble so long as gamers are going to be demanding to the point of irrationality — expecting a $60 game to be complete and perfect at launch and yet still provide hundreds of hours of entertainment with no further costs to the player is somewhat irrational at this point, no? — and loud about it. (I, uh, suspect we will mostly be demanding in that way.)
But micro-scale change for games is clearly possible, as the Battlefront 2 kerfuffle has shown.
So on the micro scale, I would focus on specific changes that aren't hard to fix. Say: If sets (or solos) are going to expire and/or change, they should be explicitly marked as expiring or subject to change from the outset, and those expirations or changes should happen as expected. (The Most Feared solo sequences? Their hover text still says they expire at 10:30 a.m. last Friday. They're still available. We'll see if the GOAT solos that expire at 10 a.m. on December 1 actually do...) That rule would do plenty to prevent attentive players from feeling blindsided, and while it won't do much to mitigate speculation or stockpiling, I think it's a better call for EA to tacitly endorse those things than to give its users whiplash in a climate that so easily allows whiplash to turn into backlash.
u/masingo13 had a thoughtful and cogent list of similar problems and proposed solutions earlier this week, and while I don't agree with all of the problems or the solutions presented, I liked how they were presented in a way that was low on rage and easily understood. Approaching EA as a bunch of people who make and sell video games because they like doing that and not just a corporation trying to drain every dollar from the proletariat — though, yes, EA is that, too, because CaPiTaLiSm — is, I suspect, likely to mean more to those people who make and sell video games and want to do their jobs as well as possible. I encourage people to be at least that thoughtful in their pushback, especially since our cadre of MUT players isn't likely to do quite so much by yelling obscenities in unison.

Thoughts That Fit in One Paragraph

• I went 15-10 in Weekend League this weekend, reaching Gold I for just the second time in two months of regularly aiming for it. And I think I got there mostly because I found an offensive scheme I like — leaning on the run from the Run Balanced playbook — and maximized it, investing in players who helped make it better. (The MUT Heroes Rodney Hudson is so, so good.) I still don't always know what I'm doing on defense, and I don't love my personnel there nearly as much as I like my personnel on offense, but I had enough to get to 15 wins with games to spare.
• Getting to 15 wins with enough games to spare to make a run at an Elite finish or Top 100 was maybe my proudest achievement in MUT this year. Playing all of those games at like 6 a.m. on Monday and getting routed in all of them was one of the dumber ideas I've had in a long while. Don't play Weekend League when you're dead tired and impatient, friends!
• I would like Weekend League to require fewer than 25 games. 25 games is so, so many.
• I won my first Super Bowl in MUT 18 this weekend, too — but it required playing one game until the second quarter, taking a lead and forcing a fourth down, losing connection, and then playing another game into the second quarter before a quit that was really premature. (And this was on All-Pro 1, mind.) That helped diminish that accomplishment for me, and while I don't really have complaints about the rewards — more on that in a second — the rewards alone after a quit are an anticlimactic way to conclude a Seasons run.
• Also: It's tremendously frustrating to spend a few minutes getting ready for and loading into a game, play several minutes of it, and then have that progress wiped out through no fault of my own. That's the scenario connection problems pose to every MUT player. It's the most pressing issue for that reason.
• That Super Bowl win got me just enough Seasons tokens to try the 88-90 set for the first time. I pulled Chris Harris Jr. from it, who is my best pull by both OVR and price outside of the Full Legend Pack from Level 40 — and who is actually worth more than the Steve Atwater I pulled from that pack. I was not complaining about my largely unremarkable luck prior to this, but I sure as hell am not complaining now.
• I've also had really good luck with the Legend Upgrade Set this week, pulling 90 Derrick Brooks, Rodney Harrison, and Kellen Winslow, 89 Jerome Bettis, Mean Joe Greene, and Bruce Matthews, and crapping out only once with an 87 Anthony Muñoz. All of those cards but the Bettis and Muñoz are now in my lineup, and I'm angling toward the full Legends of Brooks and Harrison. And the set itself was only costing me about the equivalent of 125K for each go, with the Elite Tokens and 83-84 Legends cards all being sunk cost and the 85+ Legends cards coming fairly cheaply from the pool of 85/87 Eric Allens and Walter Joneses being pulled (or earned through the Eric Allen objectives list) and immediately sold for under 20K while Legend Fantasy Packs were available. If the set keeps its current requirements and you run hot with the pulls, sniping 85 Legends and using your Elite Tokens (or components) that way may be a moneymaker for a while. And if the set ever bumps up to 88+ Legends or gets cheaper, well...
• I have come to believe there are too many Sets and Packs tiles in the game, because the game is starting to really lag in both of those menus. I wish the Item Sets screen were better organized with Sets nested in families (maybe Promo Sets, Redemption Sets, Weekly Sets? I dunno) or something, and while I appreciate being able to see the Color Rush Uniforms, a screen with 32 actionable tiles is understandably a slow load. I don't know the best fixes for this; I am not a developer. But I'm beginning to think it's a problem.
• My one truly bad H2H experience of the weekend: Someone who got so mad because I paused after a sack in the first half — to change my lineup to get the benched players who sit behind the scrubs that grant me Read and React and the ZCV that comes with it, mind you — and then didn't pause again that he gave me all of his pauses in full, then literally said "You started it" when I messaged to say he deserved the win but that I found the pauses obnoxious. Don't pause ever, I guess?
• The more amusing bad H2H experience of the weekend: Me messaging a truly awful OC after a Squads game to say "Please, please, please don't run offense ever again," only to get "im nice with the sticks" and "mistakes don't define us" as responses. I was mad, but I did laugh.
• Related: I have more or less given up on Squads with randoms, because it's just not worth playing solo — I'm either being powerless as a head coach, hamstrung by terrible QB play as a DC, or the scapegoat as an OC — so if you're on the Xbox and want to play Squads, LMK or HMU or w/e.
• Ideas for future posts: Tier lists for each position (with tables), a full how-to for beginners that y'all can downvote for being painfully obvious and then send to every lurker who asks the same question about something for the 40th time that day, ranking the red chemistries, a better and fuller explanation of thresholds, and making a long-ass "State of MUT" post like this a midweek feature. I know many or most of y'all TL;DR'd long ago, but if you made it all the way down here, please hit me with your honest feedback, whether postive or negative, on those ideas, or on ideas of your own.

We're in the thick of the playoffs, but there are 24 teams sitting at home with nothing to do but think about next season. For their sake, we're offering suggestions about the offseason.
These are my two cents, but feel free to offer yours below in the comments. If you're a Chargers fan who watches every snap, you probably have better insight than the rest of us.

LOS ANGELES CHARGERS

Even with a new city and a new coach in Anthony Lynn, the Chargers looked like the same ol' Chargers early on, blowing a few close games and stumbling to an 0-4 start. They turned on the gas from there, but couldn't quite sneak into the playoffs despite a 9-7 record (and +87 point differential.)
step one: keep defensive core in tact
The team's transition to a 4-3 system and coordinator Gus Bradley couldn't have gone any better. Pass rushers Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram proved to be ideal bookends for the scheme, but they're not alone as standouts. CB Casey Hayward is a PFF darling, while rookie CB Desmond King appeared to be the low-key steal of the draft. LB Denzel Perryman also proved his value, on and off the field, helping the team shore up their run defense when healthy.
Wisely, the Chargers brought back Gus Bradley to a long-term contract to keep that momentum rolling. With that same logic in mind, I'd try to re-sign the other elements of the defense who are entering free agency, even if they're unheralded players like FS Tre Boston. Boston had a few brain farts, but overall played well with 79 tackles and 5 interceptions.
Conversely, the team may have to let the promising WR Tyrell Williams walk away in restricted free agency. There's a lot to like about Williams -- he's 6'4" and only 25 years old. He was productive/efficient as well -- with 43 receptions and 728 yards on only 69 targets. Ironically, that may be a problem. Williams may elicit some sizable offers from other teams. With Keenan Allen back in form and big rookie Mike Williams (hopefully) getting healthy, the team may not have room on the field and on the payroll for another big investment at wideout. I'd try to keep him (and hope the restricted tag scares teams away), but I wouldn't overpay and risk roster imbalance.
step two: win at the margins
You can dismiss special teams as a marginal part of the game, but savvy teams have shown its importance and value over the years. Franchises who invest in special teams play, special teams coordinators, and special teams stars usually reap the rewards for that. It’s no surprise that some of those -- New England, Baltimore, and Kansas City -- are always in the playoff hunt. Even if special teams is 1/7 or 1/8 of the game (as Football Outsiders estimates), that can mean the difference between winning or losing a close game.
Unfortunately for the Chargers, they know that all too well. Special teams has cost them several close losses over the last few years and didn't go away in 2017 as their kickers hit only 20 of 30 field goals on the season.
It's fair to question how much of the blame falls on coaching here. Anthony Lynn hired his buddy George Stewart to be his special teams coordinator / assistant head coach, although the majority of his experience came as a WR coach. This article sums up the reasons why Stewart is unlikely to get fired (TL;DR, he's close friends with Lynn, and the rest of the unit performed OK.)
However, OK is not good enough when you want to win in the playoffs. The Chargers should think long and hard about investing in a top special teams coordinator. There happens to be one nearby in Brad Seely, a well-respected coach who's been displaced by Jon Gruden's hiring in Oakland. Stewart can stay on as an assistant head coach, but a top-notch special teams coordinator may be a boon to the staff.
If the team does not want to remove Stewart from the post, adding a more dependable kicker would be a fair compromise. The team signed veteran Nick Novak for those purposes, but an injury cost him 2017 and put his future in doubt. He's actually 36 years old now, which surprised me (I would have guessed 26.) Clearly, I need to keep up with my kicker birthday cards.
step three: don't force a succession plan at QB
Eli Manning, Philip Rivers, and Ben Roethlisberger entered the NFL together in the 2004 draft, and there's a good chance that they'll leave together as well. Contractually, their big guaranteed money expires after 2018, in which case they may all step aside and allow their teams to usher in a new QB to take over the mantle in 2019.
Despite the prospect of a massive hole under center in 2019, I'd urge the Chargers to treat a QB succession plan as a luxury, not a necessity. Here are some reasons why:
(1) This roster is built to "win now." The Chargers have all the pieces in place to make a legitimate Super Bowl run in 2018, or at least crash into the playoffs. Jon Gruden's star power may make the Oakland Raiders the gambling favorite in the AFC West, but the Chargers may be the smarter money. With the Chiefs possibly taking a short-term step back as they break in Patrick Mahomes, the division is ripe for the taking.
Using a R1 or R2 pick for a QB means that the team did not use that pick on someone else that could have helped contribute to the playoff chase in 2018. It's a risk/reward that the Kansas City Chiefs made this year. They traded up for Mahomes and sat him on the bench all year. In the long run, that was probably the right move, but it didn't help them this year. One wonders if the Chiefs could have actually gone deep into the playoffs if they kept their pick and used it on a contributing player like LB T.J. Watt or LB Reuben Foster.
Of course, the Chiefs made that decision not because of Alex Smith's age, but a calculation that he wasn't good enough to win the title. I'm not sure the Chargers can make that presumption with Rivers.
(2) In fact, Philip Rivers isn't showing any signs of slowing down yet. Although he may be 36 years old, Rivers played well in 2017 with 4515 passing yards, 28 TDs, and only 10 interceptions. And whether you want to credit Anthony Lynn or the underrated tackle Russell Okung, the team improved mightily in terms of pass protection; Rivers only took 18 sacks all season long. As long as he can stay upright, there's a decent chance that Rivers will play well in 2018 and 2019. Plotting out his demise now may be premature.
(3) The team doesn't have the means of acquiring a surefire heir apparent. Formalizing a succession plan makes a lot more sense for a team like the New York Giants, who will have the benefit of the # 2 pick and a host of franchise QBs to choose from. With the #17 pick, the Chargers won't have that opportunity. They'd either be taking a QB who slipped down to them (perhaps Louisville's Lamar Jackson) or would be reaching on a QB like Oklahoma State's Mason Rudolph.
In theory, the Chargers may be prudent to wait for R2 to see if there's value on the board. If he falls, Mason Rudolph makes sense there. Virginia's Kurt Benkert is another QB with pro traits that may be worth a R2 pick. Still, I wouldn't force a QB if the team doesn't like their options. As mentioned, a QB heir should be treated like a luxury, not a necessity.
(4) This coaching staff can't consider themselves "safe" yet. Anthony Lynn was a surprise hire who was never going to have a long leash with this franchise. He needs to keep proving himself year after year.
And to his credit, Lynn did that in 2017 with a solid 9-7 start. However, if this team flops in 2018, all bets are off. Expectations will be high, so if the team slumps down to 5 or 6 wins like the Giants did, Lynn could get the premature axe.
Given that, this staff can't think too long term about 2019 and beyond. If they develop a QB on the bench all year, they may never see the fruits of that labor on the field. Their best bet will be to win as much as possible and accrue as much leverage as possible.
the bottom line
As mentioned, the L.A. Chargers should be considered a frontrunner in their division and even a contender in the AFC next season. They're going to have a debate about whether to hedge their bets and plan for the future at QB, or go "all in" on a deep run in 2018. I'd recommend the "all in" approach. This may be Rivers' last/best chance at a ring.
other blueprints
ARI, ATL, BAL, BUF, CAR, CHI, CIN, CLE, DAL, DEN, DET, GB, HOU, IND, JAX, KC, LAC, LAR, MIA, MIN, NE, NO, NYG, NYJ, OAK, PHI, PIT, SF, SEA, TB, TEN, WAS

A Look Back (Part 4 of 5): The 2008 Carolina Panthers

How They Got Here

2006 ushered in somewhat of a rebuild year. Although the team retained a lot of it’s foundation pieces like Jake Delhomme, Steve Smith, Julius Peppers and John Kasay, as well as maintained its coaching staff, Carolina lost a number of quality contributors in the offseason following their NFC title run. Most importantly, the Panthers lost their best running back, Stephen Davis, who was released due to age and injury concerns. In addition, Carolina also lost CB Ricky Manning, Jr., and LB Will Witherspoon to free agency, amongst others.
The Panthers also picked up a couple of notable pieces in the offseason. They made a rare splashy free agent signing when they brought in the aging former star WR Keyshawn Johnson from the Dallas Cowboys in order to give Steve Smith some much needed relief in the passing game. If you are a Keyshawn fan, you’ll need to go ahead and watch him now as ESPN has not extended his contract on their channel, so the world will be deprived of his deep brain in the analysis game in 2016. The Panthers also landed a certain DeAngelo Williams with the 27th pick of the draft. Williams assumed a backup role to DeShaun Foster in his rookie season, but stood out when he replaced Foster due to injury in several games, going over 100 yards on the ground in one, and catching over 100 yards in the other.
Carolina’s season in 2006 started out on a bad note. Losing Steve Smith to a hamstring injury, the Panthers were embarrassed at home to the Falcons, 6-20, and lost one of their best offensive lineman, Travelle Wharton, sidelined for the season. The rest of the Panthers' year played out precisely how their season record (8-8) suggested it would…a perfect blend of exciting wins and frustrating losses. There’s not really any one thing that led to the Panthers missing the postseason. Steve Smith and Keyshawn Johnson totaled 2,000 yards and 12 TD’s. DeShaun Foster and DeAngelo Williams ran for 1,400 (but could only combine for 4 TD’s). The team didn’t experience a lot of crippling injuries. The defense mostly showed up to play, but did get blown out in several games over the year. The NFCS was more competitive as a whole, with Drew Brees and Sean Payton joining the Saints and Michael Vick still an NFL darling in Atlanta. Regardless, the Panthers actually won 5 of their six games in the division. The Panthers put one 4-game win streak together in the beginning of the season, but gave up a four-game losing streak in the final portion of the year. Consistency was an issue all season and the team sometimes felt unfocused at times. A disappointing follow-up to the excitement of 2005.
2007 was more of the same, unfortunately, with the Panthers actually going slightly backwards to finish 7-9. But this season’s issues, unlike the 2006 season, had one big defining factor that set the stage for disappointment. In the third game of the season against the hated Falcons, Jake Delhomme suffered an elbow injury and was lost for the season after electing to have Tommy John surgery. This unleashed an absolute shit show for the Panthers as they tried to fill Delhomme’s spot. His first replacement was a guy the franchise initially missed out on drafting back in 2002 (thank God), the former #1 overall pick, QB David Carr. Carr signed on in the offseason to backup Delhomme. He struggled mightily in his first game as a starter, a bad loss to Tampa Bay. He was then subsequently injured himself in the next game, a tough road win against the Saints.
The Panthers were forced to sign an ancient Vinny Testaverde as the second replacement for Delhomme. When I say ancient, I mean it. My man was 43 years old when the team brought him out of retirement. But Old Man Testa would not be shaken by talks of age, coming out of the gate to lead the Panthers to a surprising victory on the road against the Arizona Cardinals and brought the franchise to a surprising 4-2 start. With the win, Vinny became the oldest starting QB to do so in the NFL. However, his honeymoon wouldn’t last, as the defending Super Bowl champion Peyton Manning and the Indianapolis Colts visited Bank of America stadium the following week, laying waste to the Panthers, 31-7. Testeverde injured his Achilles during the game, ushering in Matt Moore, a rookie QB and the Panther’s 4th option at the position. Matt Moore started 3 games over the course of the season, going 2-1. Testaverde would eventually return and ended up starting 9 games on the year. The constant influx at the QB position cost the team, and after the Colts game they proceeded to drop their next four games, essentially ending their playoff aspirations that year.
The draft in 2007 was a high note, though, as the Panthers landed three players who would become franchise cornerstones over the course of their careers. Carolina took a beast of a linebacker in Jon Beason with the 25th pick in the draft. They also were able to land the one and only Ryan Kalil in the 2nd round, as well as one Charles Johnson in the 3rd.
So enter 2008. Oh…2008.
9 out of 10 George R. R. Martins agree…2008 was the Panthers greatest season.
It took three years, but the Panthers under John Fox looked like they’d finally rekindled some of the magic from the ’03 and ’05 seasons. Delhomme was back in action, starting a full 16 games that season. The team lost some longtime members to free agency, retirement and simple release. LB Dan Morgan, DT Kris Jenkins, and WR's Keary Colbert and Drew Carter were no longer on the team entering the 2008 season. But the Panthers would add other pieces that really augmented the team that year.
2008 marked a special time for Carolina when they double-dipped, selecting Jonathan Stewart with the 13th pick in the draft. The top-shelf running back out of Oregon would be brought in not only to replace the released DeShaun Foster, but also to serve in a genuine split-carry committee backfield with the up-and-coming DeAngelo Williams. The Panthers, along with the Tennessee Titans that year, were one of the first teams to employ such a look, which many teams have begun to utilize today.
The plan worked to perfection, with Williams and Stewart combining for 2,300+ yards and 28 scores. They were an absolute joy to watch perform all season and began dubbing themselves “Double Trouble”. The Panthers also released WR Keyshawn Johnson after one season and brought back their old friend, Muhsin Muhammad, to once again take the field opposite Steve Smith. Together the longtime running mates hauled in 2,350 yards and 11 touchdowns (The Panthers didn’t need to do much passing near the end zone that season).
The Carolina defense was again a top-five overall unit with Julius Peppers, Jon Beason, Charles Johnson, Thomas Davis (now in his OLB role), Chris Gamble, Ken Lucas and newly drafted Charles Godfrey. The outfit kept offenses frustrated all season long. Johnson and Peppers notched over 20 sacks on the year. Peppers also forced a ridiculous five fumbles. Combined with a top-ten offense, the Panthers were set for a big year. The team came out of the gate on fire, winning four of its first five. The team would add win streaks of 4 and 3 game over the season. In the regular season's final game, Carolina went up big against New Orleans, but the Drew Brees led the Saints in a furious comeback throwing three touchdown passes in the fourth quarter to take the lead 31-30. The Panthers had the NFCS title on the line, as the Falcons were in position to win if the Panthers dropped their final game. Enter John Kasay, Carolina’s first and only placekicker, nailed a last minute field goal to take the victory, 33-31. This game sealed the division for Carolina with a record of 12-4, matching the franchises best season total. The win awarded the Panthers the #2 seed in the playoffs, as well as another playoff game at home.

The Players

Deangelo Williams
Joining the team in 2006, DeAngelo Williams didn’t hit the gate running like Jonathan Stewart as he was primarily a backup for his first two seasons. But he exploded on to the scene in 2008 with a 1,500+ yard performance. Williams' one-cut style was impressive, to say the least, and he left the team in 2014 as the franchises top running back in yards and touchdowns, in spite of missing significant time due to injuries and playing behind Foster on the depth charts. Williams’ initiative to help the NFL recognize breast cancer awareness and his open struggle with his mom’s disease helped to establish his relationship with the fans on a totally different level. Many do not appreciate the way the Panthers cut ties with their best back in history, but the split helped both causes as it opened the door for Jonathan Stewart to finally have his moment in the sun alone, and provided Williams with a revitalized career in Pittsburgh.
Jonathan Stewart
There are only one or two draft picks that I can think of who came in their rookie season and made as big and as immediate impact as Stewart did with the Panthers in 2008. Unfortunately for all involved, Stewart’s career after his first two seasons was established primarily by his injury issues. He began taking yoga to help with his flexibility and his production and time on the field have both made a huge step forward over the 2014 and 2015 seasons. At 29 years old, Stewart finds himself leading a rushing attack in the Super Bowl and really shows no signs of slowing down.
Jon Beason
Jon Beason was another huge draft win as the Panthers continued to show that no matter what coach was in charge, the team would be spearheaded by one or two elite linebackers. Beason was huge for the defense from 2007 until 2011 and was one of the sole bright spots on a struggling squad after Peppers left and Thomas Davis was lost multiple seasons in a row. He became the highest paid linebacker in NFL history as a result. This extension became a bit of a sticking point, however, as Beason lost most of his 2011 and 2012 seasons to injury.
After the Panthers selected Luke Kuechly in the 2012 draft, Beason’s days in Carolina were numbered and he was traded to the NY Giants in the beginning of the 2013 season, where he continues to mix stellar play with injury stints for that team.
Thomas Davis
Okay, I'm going to cheat some here. This guy is a legend. If you need me to tell you about this guy, you need to get with the Keep Pounding program. A shoe-in for the Panther Ring of Honor when he hangs up his cleats, this guy is the very definition of those two little words stitched on the back of everyone's jersey. He's going to have a huge game tomorrow. I can feel lit.
In lieu of a big description piece, here is a video of Thomas Davis knocking the f*ck out of Jimmy Graham.

Playoff Bracket

The Game

NFC Divisional Playoff: Arizona Cardinals (10-7) v. Carolina Panthers (12-4) , Saturday, January 10th, 2009, 8:15pm, Bank of America Stadium
Don’t get it twisted. The 2003 Super Bowl loss was an extremely painful moment for Panthers Nation. The higher up you go, the harder you fall in the end, and the bigger the game the larger the misery is when your team falls short.
But this particular game will live in infamy with the Carolina faithful because of what the expectations were leading in to the contest, the way it unfolded, and the fallout afterwards.
The Panthers’ first opponent was an upstart Cardinals team that won a very weak NFC West with a 9-7 record. No one gave this team much thought at the time, since they came out of a struggling division (image that!) and were playing against the Atlanta Falcons with their new high-caliber QB, Matt Ryan. Atlanta chomped at Carolina’s heels throughout the regular season and slipped behind the Panthers at the end to finish 11-5 for a Wild Card birth. In the opening round of the playoffs, the game between the Falcons and Cardinals was a close, high-scoring affair. The Cardinals won 30-24 to advance to the divisional round and a date with Carolina in Charlotte.
Anticipation for this game was high in the Carolinas as Atlanta was seen as the better of the two opponents in that match. The playoff game would take place at home where the Panthers were undefeated in the postseason. With the arsenal of weapons and a shut down defense, nobody was going to come in to our house and beat us. The Cardinals carried a 10-point underdog status and were missing their Pro Bowl wideout, Anquan Boldin. A healthy portion of the fan base was already looking past them to the anticipated NFC Championship match with the Giants.
Well…
The game started out right, at least. On its opening possession, the Panthers stormed down the field and put up the game’s first points. The crowd was electric as the Panthers effortlessly moved the ball down the field. The defense also held up well for the first 2/3 of the 1st quarter, limiting the Cardinals to a a couple of punts. The Cardinals would strike, however, with 5 minutes to go in the first, as Warner hit Larry Fitzgerald on a beautiful 45 yard teardrop pass when Fitz got behind the secondary. The Cardinals would score several plays later to tie the game with a Warner pass to RB Tim Hightower.
No worries. The Panthers were still in control..or at least the fan base thought. Delhomme would end up fumbling the ball on his very next possession, thus setting up the Cardinals with the ball on the Panthers’ 13 yard line…where Arizona would capitalize with a 5 yard run by Edgerrin James. And in the span of 2.5 minutes Carolina turned the game from 7-0 to 14-7.
But this was just the beginning of a very long night for Jake Delhomme.
Jake began the 2nd quarter by leading his team down to the 15 yard line and then promptly throwing the ball to Dominique Rodgers Cromartie. This lead to a 50 yard field goal, 17-7 Cardinals. The Cardinals defense stuffed the Panther’s vaunted running back tandem, as Stewart and Williams combined for less than 90 yards on the ground and the only touchdown came from Stewart in the opening series. The Panthers continued to punt as their best form of attack. The Cardinals, on the other hand, were just unstoppable. The Kurt Warner to Larry Fitzgerald connection was painful as the two connected up and down the field seemingly at will.
Delhomme would toss his second pick with 5 minutes left in the half after the Cardinals posted up another field goal. This led to another long touchdown pass to Fitzgerald, who was making an absolute mockery of the Panthers’ secondary. 27-7 Cardinals. The third quarter was no less cruel to Delhomme. Midway through the period, Delhomme’s pass was tipped in the air by 3 different players before winding up in AZ safety, Antrel Rolle's hands. The Cards would tack on another field gaol to put the lead up to 23, 30-7.
The defense stepped up somewhat in the second half, highlighted by a stellar pick from Jon Beason who got the Panthers in to scoring position. But Delhomme would not be stopped, immediately throwing his 4th interception of the day in the end zone.
Jake wasn’t done there. He would add his fifth interception several minutes later after the Cardinals tacked on anther three points. Jake would finally toss a touchdown, only the second pass caught by Steve Smith on the night, with less than a minute to go in the game. But at this point, the Cardinals were already celebrating victory. End game. End season.
End Era.
Here’s the pain in video highlight form if you need visual cues to induce tears.
Cardinals 33 Panthers 13

What Came After

This one was harsh. The fan base and the organization suffered for a long time after this crushing playoff defeat. With such lofty expectations and with such a meltdown performance by the franchises' best and longest-tenured QB, the damages done in this game would ripple throughout the spring and summer and were felt on opening day in 2009. The Panthers hedged their bets on Delhomme, granting him a decent four-year contract extension in the offseason. The Panthers draft that year was also a flop, with Captain Munnerlyn’s selection in the 7th round being the highlight of the event.
Jake Delhomme was never the same. After committing 6 total turnovers all on his own in the divisional playoffs, Delhomme opened up the 2009 season against the Philadelphia Eagles with another nightmare performance, throwing four more INT’s and losing a fumble. He was benched in the game for his awful outing. The Panthers as a whole would turn the ball over seven times in a total beatdown, 38-10. And because…why not…Jake threw two successive game-killing interceptions in the next two games. He would have another four INT game later in the year against the NY Giants. Jake was broken and, perhaps in the universe’s final act of benevolence, broke his finger against the NY Jets.
This set up Matt Moore to start, and he filled in admirably, going 4-1 as a starter. That Panthers ended at 8-8, missing the playoffs and being denied a consecutive NFCS title again. One bright spot on the season ended up being sad in retrospect as DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart spent 2009 tearing it up on the ground. Both backs went over the 1,000 yard mark on the year and brought in a combined 17 scores. Sadly, this would be the last season both backs would take the field for a full year together as both suffered significant injuries each year after leading to Williams' release from the team in 2014.
2010 was one of the bleakest seasons in Panthers Nation. The team lost it’s franchise’s best answer at QB and not having any ready solutions, turned to Matt Moore, who had impressed in limited action in 2009. The Panthers also took Jimmy “Pickles Six” Clausen in the 2nd round of the draft that year. The Panthers traded their first round pick away that year, and ended up taking some selections that were a dubious bag…like Brandon LaFell and Greg Hardy.
To add insult to injury, the Panthers best and most loved defensive player outside of Sam Mills...Julius Peppers...declined offers for a contract extension with the Panthers. The money only seemed to partly matter as it was apparent Peppers wanted nothing to do with the organization any longer. He left in the offseason to sign with the ascendent Chicago Bears who would be a force to be reckoned with over the 2010 season, winning the NFC.
Clausen and Moore were terrible. Both combined in the year for a TD/INT ratio of 8/19 and threw for less than 2,500 yards. DeAngelo Williams injured his foot in the 6th game of the season, ending his year. John Fox looked lost for most of the campaign as his team started 0-5 and wound up 2-14, notching the second-worst seasonal record in franchise history. The issues on offense were combined with one of the worst defenses ever featured in Carolina, with Julius Peppers gone and Thomas Davis suffering a his second ACL tear in the preseason, the Panthers finished as the 26th overall defensive unit for 2010.
Enough was enough. Carolina fired John Fox at the end of 2010, ushering in the era of Ron Rivera. Clausen can be seen, in retrospect, as a hero for Carolina. His utter incompetence at the QB position landed the Panthers the first overall pick in the 2011 draft which would completely reverse the fortunes of the fanbase in the forthcoming years.
Next up…2013 and 2014: The Essential Ingredients