First Time Post, I like to just get this off my Chest and would love some support or outside opinions, Sorry if it’s a bit of a rant
Context: 20 Year old Male, 2 Year University
Essentially I have been gambling consistently on Sports gambling and BlackJack/Casino games for the past 2 months. I’ve been gambling prior to this also but the past 2 Months are where it’s been getting worse. This past weekend was by far the worse relapse I had, Deposited a total of 4000 in a combo of sports betting and Blackjack, Gone over the course of two days. Was constantly stuck to my screen over and over again watching games and doing hands of BJ, I feel terribly sick thinking about it right now. I was very lucky to be able to stop myself with 2500 left in my bank account, and have than Just installed GamBan on my phone and laptop for extra help. But it’s been a very ruff 24 hours, Been criying non stop and feeling very depressed. I’m very grateful to have a loving family that I was able to open to and explain what I did.
Gambling has stopped my focus away from school (University student) and has stopped me from focusing on my workouts which is important for me as I also play for a university football team. My main issue is now is coming to terms with accepting the losses; I’ve been up to 11k in my bank account, To now 2500 (Bought a few things too but a 50 percent lost to gambling)
I also want to note that I am a chronic smoker (Every day, 2-3 times a day) of weed (Legal in Canada). I’m very curious to know if anyone has any ideas on the linkage between Smoking weed and gambling as majority of time I was high when gambling. I’m also doing my best to take 1 Week off from smoking completely to try and re asses how it makes me feel
The money I’ve gained was from previous gambling as I have not been working very consistent hours with my construction Joh. However I’m hoping to start and try and work 3-4 times a week to appreciate the value of money because I’ve really stopped appreciating money: Doing 100 dollar BJ hands on 3 seats makes me realize how sick that is and how much it truly is.
I do not currently have any debt nor do I even bother owning a credit card. I have a few Nice shoes I’m going to sell to recoup a bit of money and put me at about 4000 in my bank. My main question for you guys is what are the best ways to stop thinking about looses ? I was thinking of giving 3000 to my parents and keeping 1000 in my own bank for personal use. I was wondering any other ideas people have had or just methods of triying to not be in a loop of depression? I try to be positive tell myself that my life has not Truly changed and that I’ve only lost money which can be earned back, but it’s hard to to just hate myself for what I just put myself through. I currently live with my parents (Online school) and don’t have any immediate Bills to pay. I understand my situation is far less worse than some but it has been very mentally draining on me and would love some other opinions and stories of similar people.
Thank you, Here’s to day one of being gamble free, Hoping to keep it going forever 🙏🏽

Hello RuneScapers^TM!
I am proposing a bet sizing system for the duel arena:
10, 100, 1000, 10000, 100000, 1000000, etc. (powers of ten)
The reason I think we need this or something similar is to discourage unfair betting strategies. There is a rampant cheater problem at the duel arena, but it is not like you think; I'm not talking about bots or illegal items. There is a system to ensure profits that relies on being able to double your bet size on every loss. If one always doubles their bet on a loss, then after a certain number of duels, they will always end up with a bankroll one starting bet higher than what they started with. The strategy is also known as "Martingale betting strategy" between those who use this strategy to cheat in blackjack and other near 50-50 games, and those who know to avoid betting against those who utilize this strategy.
Section 1.
I have gathered data and designed a chart to visually illustrate the Martingale Betting System(henceforth labeled as MBS) in action here:

Number of duels on x-axis, and bankroll on y-axis
As you can clearly see, no matter how many times the example player x loses in a row, he (I shall henceforth assume the example player x is a man so I will use this pronoun) will always end up winning at some point, putting his bankroll exactly one starting bet above the highest achieved bankroll. The term "starting bankroll" shall henceforth have the meaning of the number of coins in player x's inventory before the first duel has taken place. The starting bet is the amount of coins the player chooses to bet in the first duel. It is this number of coins that is then doubled after each loss, and it is this number of coins that player x will bet after each win.
Section 2 - Conclusion
Martingale betting strategy is very simple to execute, meaning anyone out there could be doing it, and there is no telling whether you are being challenged by a regular, or a "fair" player, or a user of the Martingale betting strategy. Therefore I think it is up to Jagex to prevent this by restricting the betting amounts to powers of 10.
If Jagex refuses to change the betting system, they are implicitly endorsing this betting strategy, and therefore you should assume everyone else is using it and so everyone should also be aware of it. While I hope no-one would use this betting strategy, I see no other way to prevent people losing their coins to it, other than to inform you of how it works, and why it is unbeatable.
Rules for commenting:
I am looking to get positive feedback for this post, and I hope for everyone to see this. I don't mind if we have slight disagreements about what the staking options should be. However, by my calculations if the stake sizing options are each powers of 10, the martingale strategy will not work, because the chance of a losing streak running out the bankroll is too high.

Growing up I was never into sports or gambling at all. I used to be the type of person to go to the casino and throw 20 dollars on blackjack or throw 20 dollars on slots and look at it as “you’re going to lose this, but you might win something and if you don’t it’s only 20 dollars and you’re done.” The person I became within a very short time was a far cry from that conservative gambler I used to be.
I saw my friends who were very into sports and gambling start to bet on football on FanDuel and DraftKings Sportsbook and they would win money here and there, but I was dead against the idea. That is until the sportsbooks had a promotion for a risk free bet for 500 dollars. It was the Broncos vs Chiefs. Not knowing much about sports at the time, I knew the Chiefs were gonna absolutely crush the struggling Broncos and I took the Chiefs -8.5 at -110 odds. It was a risk free bet so I thought fuck it, I’ll get my money back if it loses. Well, it won. And the dopamine rush of winning that kind of money for just picking a selection had me hooked. It was better than weed, cocaine, alcohol, or any kind of substance I had experienced before.
Pretty soon I ballooned that almost 1000 bucks into 35 grand over the course of a couple months and I was over the moon. I have a good paying job, but I work a lot of hours and it’s very hard physical work. It’s very draining and I viewed sports betting as a way out and into an easier more prosperous lifestyle to break the cycle of my daily misery. But boy was I in for a surprise...
So then COVID-19 hit and I was forced to stop gambling due to there being no sports. I wish I had stopped for good because I would’ve still had that money, but you can’t turn back time as the saying goes. There was a 2-3 month period where I stopped gambling completely and I was really happy. I never had that much money sitting in my bank account before. I could go on any trip I wanted. I bought a sweet new-to-me Audi in cash. I was elated. But when sports came back things started going downhill...fast...
I got into betting Russian table tennis as stupid as it sounds. I laughed at the idea the books started offering it as a bet, but I got into it studying the lines on betsapi and sofascore thinking I could beat the lines like I did in American professional sports. I had what I thought to me was ‘unlimited bankroll’ so I’d bet 100 at a time on each table tennis match (which last no more than 30 minutes vs 2-4 hours for a pro sport). I was hooked. I’d wake up at 7:00am for work and there would be a full slate and I was betting almost every match possible. Sometimes I would make 3 grand in a day. Sometimes I’d be down 2 grand. It was a roller coaster, but this is where my addiction took a turn for the worst.
After getting addicted to table tennis for 2 month, real sports came back. I wanted to get back into the 500 and 1000 dollar parlays I was making, but I didn’t want to throw all that money up at once. So I would do 100 dollar table tennis bets first thing in the morning and try to get to those dollar amounts. This was my downfall. Chasing loss, after loss on what I thought were “sure fire bets” the money started disappearing rapidly. Soon enough I was broke. But that wasn’t good enough. I have good credit so I went and took out a 7000 dollar loan to get back on my feet.
I promised myself I wouldn’t gamble that 7000, but what did I do? Follow the same path I promised myself I wouldn’t go down. I even won a parlay for 13000, another for 7000, one for 8300, and many for 3-4000. I’m writing you today to tell you still have that 7000 debt and not a single dollar to my name. The last 3 paychecks I’ve gotten have all gone to gambling. Every. Single. Dollar. Within 2 days of getting paid. It’s an absolute ruthless addiction that will take everything from you.
How did I stop? I forced myself to cut access from my money. My bank card held all the power to allow myself to drain my accounts to chase money that I’ll never get back so easily. I’ve come to accept I have to work for what I have even though it’s so hard. Gambling is easy. The consequences are hard. I came clean to my dad and he’s taking over my finances for quite some time. I’m fortunate that it’s only 7k in the hole and I’ve stopped the bleeding now, but not a day goes by I don’t think about that 35k in my bank account. My dad told me something that stuck with me and I think it’s the thing that’s gonna keep me away forever
“Son, that money was never yours. No matter how much you win, you’ll give it all back”
Thank you for listening to my story and I wish all of you struggling the best. You’re not alone. You can beat this. You just have to want it.

TL;DR - this is an Anti-Paladin deck (with good game vs. other decks except for Ramp Druid), that utilizes Secret Passage the best of all Rogue decks.
The Deck | Proof of Legend | Matchup Spread - OG Decklist | Matchup Spread - Version II
Deck Code: AAECAYO6Ag6yAu0CzQOXBv6aA6eoA8GuA/O3A8y5A9C5A+a+A/vEA5/NA9nRAwi0AY+XA62oA7euA865A6rLA6TRA+XTAwA=
Update (8/12) II: This post has been updated to reflect the most recent (best) list, WR 34-14 in Legend (69% WR) to Top 1000 (Rank 960 and climbing!)
Hey folks! Lady Merlin here (she/hers), deck builder who's topped at #4 NA Legend and I'm excited to bring you this exciting Rogue deck. I climbed from Diamond 4 to Legend 960 (69-34, 67% WR over 103 games) with this homebrew. Originally I started climbing this expansion with Ramp Druid (similar to Charon’s Build) which I felt was great vs. everything - until every other game I played was vs. Paladin, which won 90% of matchups. I started to wonder what would win vs. them and while theorycrafting decks, faced against a (fairly standard) Bazaar Burglary deck that utilized Plagiarize.
Oh! Burgle got some new tools - I’ve always wanted to make that deck work, what else did they get? I started searching...Plagiarize can be like a second batch of Clever Disguise, sometimes worse, sometimes better; Wand Thief is super powerful (I learned picking ‘hybrid Rogue/Mage spells doesn’t count for the Quest); and...oh my goodness, Secret Passage is bonkers for this deck.
Here’s why:
I tested Secret Passage in an Aggro Rogue but the stay power was pretty disappointing. However, cards you generate during SP stay in your hand afterward. And all of Rogue’s resource generators - Wand Thief, Pharoah Cat, Plagiarize, Clever Disguise, secrets off of Shadow Jeweler, EVIL Miscreant will stay, along with other cards like Penflinger.
All the while providing at least some board presence and benefiting greatly from Rogue’s powerful, free spells - Backstab, Vendetta, Shadowstep (the minion stays in your hand post shuffle) or tempo cards that normally operate at a loss - Blackjack Stunner, Sap.
...and here’s the kicker - when Secret Passage returns any non-Rogue spells back to your hand, it counts them again for your Quest.
If you really wanted to while going second, you could T1 Quest, T2 Clever Disguise + Coin + Secret Passage and you’ve completed your quest. There’s no rush to do this, but I wanted to illustrate how ridiculously easy it is to complete the quest with the additions of Wand Thief, Plagiarize, and Secret Passage. I was able to cut out slow, typical Burglar chaff - Hench-Clan Burglar and Bazaar Mugger (which old decks normally needed to guarantee their quest completion) and put in a lot more useful cards for this meta.
Pros:

High Skill Reward - Every game feels different, since you’re working off of generated resources, from both your opponent and your cards. Plagiarize really requires you to know each other deck’s typical power turns and often rewards you the later you play it (anytime you can play it ontop of a decently winning board, it can really help). There’s a lot of mind games your opponent has to deal with simply knowing it’s one of your secrets.

Best Hero Power in Standard - Despite the high variance of generated cards, what’s super consistent is your Quest completion. I completed the quest by turn 5/6 in about 80% of games and an infinite 3/2 weapon that makes your hero immune while attacking for 2 mana is pretty fantastic. It’s a clock + removal in one.

Wrecks Paladins (83% WR, 10-2) - with three Sap effects (easy to add a 4th if you run into a lot of Paladins), you can get rid of many buffs, along with Libram of Wisdom permanently. You can delay quite a bit, utilizing your health as a resource and get rid of multiple buffs. You have enough removal to deal with their other minions (even Goody Two-Shoes) the turn they come into play.

Best Shadowjeweler deck - very few Rogue decks can spare room for Secrets these days. Since both Plaigiarize and Clever Tricks makes this deck tick you can easily play 5 or 6 secrets (1-2 Ambush as a solid 2-drop for consistency). Often Wand Thief or Ethereal Lackey can offer you another secret, but don't plan for it. Shadowjeweler is one of the most fun and powerful cards in the Standard meta.

Cons:

Can be Out-Aggro’d - Despite the numerous low cost drops, this is a weird Control/Tempo deck - some decks like Demon Hunter can outpace it just a turn or two before you’d stabilize (assuming you don’t draw your Backstabs/Secret Passages/early drops).

Hard Druid Matchup (36% WR, 8-14) - Unless your opponent draws poorly or misplays (you Plagiarize their combo), Ramp Druid wrecks this deck 62% of the time (they basically need to draw moderately bad and you draw moderately well). The Questing Adventurers in the deck is a concession to try and amp the WR vs. Druids and other control classes specifically.

How to Use Secret Passage Effectively:

Secret Passage is the most powerful and skill testing card in the deck and it can be used three ways:

Scenario 1) A 'get out of jail free' card where you're out of answers and praying for one (not a preferable situation, but an understandable one) - about a third of the deck is either removal or can generate removal;

Scenario 2) Proactive early (to complete the Quest both by generating cards and doubling the count of the ones you've already generated) - you'll waste it's potential but get your Quest completed faster. Used in match ups where you really need an early Hero Power to control board. Often you can get a few weak bodies into play, with extra cards in hand while you're doing it.

Scenario 3) And my favorite, Proactively late. In the latter scenario, generally, to best maximize it's effect you want to be on 7 or so mana and the later the game is (the more cards you've drawn) the more accurate you can be about what you're likely to get. If you run a deck tracker you should see what's available and what you're looking for in a particular turn. If you've drawn most of your high cost effects, sometimes you don't want to play SP with your full mana but also play a card or two from your starting hand.

Finding the right turn to do this can be key as you might have answers in hand already and don't need to use SP but you want to put more pressure on your opponent or have more resources stocked up ahead of time so you're not gambling.
Often times you'll find yourself using removal spells you'd rather not topdeck later (sometimes vs. Priests/Warriors you purposefully don't use removal even if you could so you don't deck yourself out too early). Finally, you want to make sure you remember how many cards you have b/c if you generate too much during your SP turn you can also overdraw.

Card Choices/Other Play Notes:

Shadowstep - So many good targets in this deck or as a way to play multiple cards for Edwin/Questnig Adventurer. In a game where you can be greedy, playing this on Shadowjeweler Hanar can gain a lot of value. 2nd Shadowstep was cut - while powerful, occasionally it sat dead in hand when both drawn early or on a Secret Passage turn with few targets. 2nd copy may be worth it now that EVIL Miscreant is in.

Dragon's Hoard cheap quest activator + works well with Secret Passage. Improved with Scholomance's excellent legendaries. Thank you u/SpookyGhostbear for the recommendation.

Pharaoh Cat - While not a consistent ‘other class’ generator, they offered some early buffers vs. more aggressive decks/extra chip damage vs. slower ones while occasionally overperforming. Easy to combo with or play as part of a Secret Passage turn.

Wand Thief - Phenomenal 1-drop. Occasionally you want to not play your quest T1 so you can combo WT with it on T2.

Pen Flinger - surprisingly, really good. Both vs. aggro (control board alongside Backstab, Sap, and Vendetta) and control (getting 3-4 extra points of damage to face). A second may be warranted.

Plagiarize - Just a note that like old 'Steal' cards, playing this vs. another Rogue won't further your quest unless they've generated non-class cards themselves (Wand Thief, etc...).

Clever Disguise - Vs. some decks it is okay to play turn 2 (over prepping your Dagger) if you're setting up an early Hero Power changeover (Secret Passage), you don't have better plays, and your opponent won't likely have x/1 health minions coming up. A must-keep vs. other Rogues as Plagiarize is mostly ineffective vs. them towards completing your quest (see above).

Shadowjeweler Hanar - often the MVP of this deck. Shadowjeweler is often either an early game minion (if you're sure your opponent can't remove him early) that can steal the game or your win condition after your opponent has run out of removal. He generates so many resources and can be real nuisance. Remember, if you discover non-Rogue secrets they count towards your Quest! He is also a good target for Shadowstep. Occasionally it is OK to drop him as a pseudo-taunt even if you won't get much value, vs. matchups where you really need the health. You can win without him.

EVIL Miscreant - Powerful 3 drop with a lot of activators in this deck, lackeys stick around in hand after Secret Passage. A late addition to the deck, but it added much early game consistency.

Overconfident Orc an early taunt to hamper this deck's aggro weakness while still being able to pressure slow decks like Druid some (not nearly as much as QA but not insignificant, either).

Questing Adventurer - mainly vs. control matchups (Ramp Druid) as Edwin’s little bros. While underwhelming, each are question - does your opponent have the answer? If yes, keep on playing - if no, proceed to win the game.

Sky Gen'ral Kragg - 6/5 in stats for 4 in two bodies, including Taunt (a little help vs. aggro) plus a Rush body (removal).

Jandice Barov - Added late as a proactive gameplay. She often offers a ton of stats for 5 mana and can be Shadowstep'd or transformed with Witchy Lackey.

Flik Skyshiv - So many good targets this meta. From Flesh Giants, to 8/8 divine shielded Libram minions, to Druid taunts. Occasionally worth Shadowstepping immediately for later use.

Card Cuts:

Vulpera Toxinblade - I thought this card would be better than it turned out to be for this deck. Unlike most Rogue decks I often had something to do T2 other than making a weapon and it was only so/so drawn from Secret Passage. Definitely a priority kill target for an opponent - may be worth it over the Questing Adventurers still but 3 Health was often too weak to live.

Hench-Clan Burglar - one of the last cards to be cut, overall just didn’t need it to complete the quest and it's stats were too weak for it’s cost.

Underbelly Fence - decently powerful card but not a great Secret Passage draw unless you also happened to draw a generator.

Waxadred - A non-bo with Secret Passage sadly (his candle is a 5 mana spell that needs to be played to recast him).

Cards Being Tested:

1-2x Eviscerate may be solid in this deck, giving it some extra reach/outs.

1-2x Fan of Knives if running into a lot of Stealth Rogue (lots of 3/1’s) and/or aggro Demon Hunter.

1x Potion of Illusion - generating a Potion was really powerful the few times I was offered it. It’s definitely a greedy choice but could come in handy as a major refill if you can take the momentary Tempo disadvantage.

1x Preparation - I can see this being useful as a combo activator, a way to get your hero power a turn sooner (Clever Disguise), or an extra secret with Shadowjeweler. Maybe a version that omitted minions for two more Eviscerate and/or a Potion of Illusion.

Headmaster Kel'Thuzad - With either double Vendetta or Coerce, can offer a powerful mid/lategame swing. Currently I prefer Jandice over him, as she doesn't need to combo with anything.

Flex Spots:

-1x Pharaoh Cat, 1x Evil Miscreant, 1x Questing Adventurer, possibly Ambush (but you'll lose some consistency with Blackjack StunneShadowjeweler).

Mulligans:
Always Keep - Wand Thief, Pharoah Cat, Secret Passage
On Play - Plagiarize - but only if you believe you can predict when they'll play the coin or know they'll play lots of early cards.
With Coin - Edwin Vancleef, EVIL Miscreant, Shadowjeweler+Secret

Vs. Aggro - Backstab, Vendetta (paired with generator), Pen Flinger (with former two)
Vs. Control - Dirty Tricks, Plagiarize
Vs. Paladin - Secret+Blackjack Stunner, Sap
Vs. Rogue - Clever Disguise (since Plagiarize doesn't work on them for Quest*), Consider mulligan'ing away Quest if you don't pick up Clever Disguise or Secret Passageway + Wand Thief/Dragon's Hoard, as it's hard to complete otherwise and vs. Aggro lists you often win or lose just by a few points of health.
Vs. Spell-Heavy Decks - Dirty Tricks (definitely a gamble vs. some decks so be careful) - most Mage and Druid decks are a pretty safe bet - or slower decks when you're going first (as the Coin can proc this).

Matchup Spread:
Demon Hunter (11-2); Druids (8-14); Hunter (1-2); Mage (9-1); Paladin (10-2); Priest (8-3); Rogue (6-6); Shaman 6-2); Warlock (6-2); Warrior (4-0)
General Strategy: As a weird hybrid Tempo/Control deck, Burglar Rogue tries to prune your opponent's board in the early game while trying to 'set up' your Quest. Once Quest is active you've got either a free removal 'spell' every turn or if there's nothing in your way, a clock as you hit your opponent's face. For the most part, you want to use your resources to counter your opponents plays and win a battle of attrition. Because you can generate so many resources over the course of a game via Burglary or Secret Passage (or steal key turns from your opponent via Plagiarize), you're often able to outlast most opponents. Finally, if you get a read that your opponent is out of removal or they falter for just a turn, you can swing the tide of the game with Shadowjeweler Hanar, a big Edwin or Questing Adventurer, or Jandice Barov.
Due to the number of randomly generated resources (Clever Disguise/EVIL Miscreant, Pharaoh Cat), semi-randomly generated resources (Plagiarize), and discovered resources (Wand Thief, Dragon's Hoard, Shadowjeweler) every game is going to play differently and you'll be rewarded for either adapting on the spot or forecasting what resources you'll need later in the game - a skilltest with very real rewards.

Vs. Aggro most games are pretty straightforward - you try and survive the best you can while removing most of your opponent’s board. Health in Rogue is a very valuable resource, but occasionally you want to waste a mana or delay a turn so you can eke out a bit more power (saving Backstab for a Satyr instead of using it on a Blazing Mage). Lategame you want taunts (Titanic Lackey) or generated minions or to utilize Shadowjeweler for a perfectly annoying gamestate. Secret Passage turns can make or break a game - you may have to play it sooner and pray for Backstabs/Vendetta/Blackjack Stunners or to activate your weapon so you have consistent removal.
Vs. Midrange is the most interesting, since you have to play a lot more back and forth. Overall you should have the advantage early on and want to remove as many things and keep even little minions alive - switching over to push for damage lategame before your opponent outvalues you.
Vs. Control is just a race to the finish line for the most part. Generated resources have a lot more value in this matchup and you want to often look for your outs (higher cost spells like Rolling Fireball, Deep Freeze, Puzzle Box even) or enough hidden damage (Frostbolt, Fireball, Penflinger) to capitalize on your opponent not knowing how far your reach may be.

Conclusion:
I hope you all enjoy this deck as much as I did! There were some very challenging games that I didn't feel like I had any right to win, but still won by skin of my teeth and they were all the more satisfying for it. While I faced more Druids than Paladins on my climb, those Paladin games were so satisfying to play and should Paladins become a Tier 1 deck, Burglar Rogue will be a solid counter pick to it.
Appreciate you all, happy climbing! - Lady Merlin

I deposited again today. I went a few days without gambling and was feeling great, but the Lakers played today. I had the safeguards in place, but when that urge hit me, it proved to be a mere obstacle instead of a deterrent.
I keep thinking about what a failure I am. Sure, in the public eye, I seem to be doing OK. Got a car, a house, and a decent paying job. It's what they don't see that's the problem. The credit card debt, the stress, the inability to focus on work, etc etc.
I break my issue with gambling into two parts. The first and most obvious is the money. I have accrued a substantial credit card debt. Thankfully the site I use stopped taking credit card payments... but the amount I already owe will take years to pay off. Growing up in an Asian immigrant family, my mom saved money at every opportunity. She'd drive an extra 3 miles to fill up on gas that was 5 cents lower per gallon than the local station. In the early years, she'd feed us some rice before we all went out to eat at a restaurant (which was few and far between, basically only for celebratory occasions). She wasn't stingy, but just very careful about not spending more than she had to. Growing up in that environment, you'd think that I'd have a better sense of money management... if my parents found out how much I've wasted gambling, they'd be heartbroken.
The second issue, which I believe is equally as important or even moreso, is the time and energy spent on gambling. If I've placed a sports bet, I inevitably end up trying to watch the game, prioritizing that over work or other more productive activities. Each game is at least 2 hours, and, win or lose, I'd usually put a bet on the next game, and the next... After a day of sports gambling with blackjack mixed in, I'd feel emotionally spent, and usually angry at random players for no good reason. "Goddammit, why did he hit that shot? That made me lose my under bet." This happened even when I was watching my favorite teams to the point where I no longer really cared whether they won or lost, as long as I won my bets. If someone asked me a hypothetical question of how much I would need to be paid to take on the emotional stress and time lost being unproductive when I'm gambling, I would tell them I'd need quite a large sum. Not only do I NOT get this hypothetical money, I also usually end up paying out a large chunk of change. It's illogical. It's dumb.
I need to be stronger, and I need to be smarter.
Sorry for the rant. I just wanted to verbalize my thoughts, if for nothing else than for me to read later and hopefully keep my motivation to quit gambling.

Depression is a real mother fucker. I had a few really awesome months going since March, and the dogs and work I do with them in my life keep me feeling like a person, but my demon is no God damn joke. my demon is so expensive it buys bottle service for cocaine. I am talking about gambling, or sports in my case.
A quick PSA that I have pertains to casinos opening again and also for myself, sports betting is finally legal in person in Detroit. Isolation made it easy to not think about betting sports. I honestly thought I was over it because it was just so easy. No sports? Nothing to bet online for me... I'm not an idiot who would play online casino (that's sarcasm - the sports book has a better house take than at blackjack). Well, it only took a mention of a new sports book and this and that when simply listening to the radio going to work with the dogs... Hadn't thought about sports in months. I took in a homeless vet and her dog for two months. I saved up 30k. I took in a 4th rescue dog. I got a new van. I got all new camping gear for the year.. I mean literally, having that feeling where life is exciting again.....
And then what the royal fuck? I am suddenly driving 38 miles downtown to a casino I've never been to. I haven't gone to a casino in ten years. I'm all online. But here I am with 15k cash going down to bet... I get down, they make me register because of any bet over 2k, and they assign me the number "007", like they don't know what they are doing. But it's really my customer number... So I bet $4k on Braves ML and then they have these machines so I put $100 ok Vegas NHL. I go home, start making a fire doing some stuff outside, I'm saying I'm not going to check the score... Well I start into a beer and then I suddenly here the game is postponed... Ugh... Vegas was a winner, so my $100 bet just won $120! What a start lol. So I call the sports book manager as I had his cell and I asked to roll the $4k bet to the Boston Red Sox as dogs at home on Friday (fyi they won 5-3).. Well, he informs me because of compliance that I have to come down... I say I can't as I'm an hr away.
So, I won $120..good enough... You would think. But, with the millions I have bet over the last decade online, there was a rush going into the casino. I can't lie. Of course, you know what happens next, right? I got in my car and I drove down there as I was only half-way between the nightly card of games.. I get down there. Cash my winner and then I add and I put it on the Raptors -1... LoL. Well, some of you know the feeling of a $4500 bet that is over 2 minutes into a sporting event. It's a rare and amazing when you're on the correct side, but from the tip off I absolutely knew I shit my pants.
I left in the first quarter and went home. I had those thoughts of death that I hadn't had in months. Not that I want to kill myself, but that I just want the feelings of worthlessness to stop.
Unfortunately, the next day did not get better as I did the incorrect thing and did not take a few days off (or quit then). I had someone cover my work shift and I went downtown this time and placed a $8k bet on the Jazz ML at +114.
I think at this point I had hit at least 10 in a row (losses that is LOL). That's how it has always been for 20 years and I think it's why I am so sick. I've had sick runs of discipline where I have run 5k to 100k+ betting 2-5 percent of my roll, I a month... So many times. Countless times making 10x my starting bankroll really quickly mmm. And then, it's always the case where it's a small bad loss or something so dumb, and it will be a cascade of night-night money. It's a sickness for sure.
I don't even really know the point of my post and it's long and probably poorly worded with lots of errors. I am not going to proof read anything I post. Maybe if I have a point it will come out below. I don't think anyone knows me here but I am a very serious compulsive gambler. I think I might be protecting my ego by giving this low number, but I would say I have racked up between 150-200k in losses net over the last 20 years, but the majority coming within the last 4 or so... As gambling escalates. If I am honest with myself, if that's the number I think, it's probabaly like $300,00. It's a blessing that I never have made a lot of money - - like literally never more than $25k a year. But an initial bank roll of 5 figures and getting it up there, I was rolling over about a million a month in sports bets.
Losing money sucks, but it is the one thing that you can repair from gambling. What can't be fixed is your brain. You will never, ever look at life the same once you have placed a large bet or lost control. You will never find joy in the same things in life. I can hardly remember the names of some of my college friends I partied with, but I remember a Stanford missed 20 yrd field goal in the first half of some meaningless game to cover my spread (Stanford crushed the game spread by double digits, but failed to cover first half of course). Do you not see the problem? Why the fuck do I or would I want to remember that? Gambling is worse than drugs in many ways. Currently, I am slowly, painfully, and expensively being killed by gambling. If I was a junkie, someone, literally anyone would see my pain and help me, but as a gambler, this pain is internal and so terrifying that we do almost everything to hide it. And then we spend our days going to work, thinking about how we can die, saving up money... Only to feel okay again months later and to relapse.
I hope I can help someone young getting into gambling to understand that the danger is not money really... But it is the damage to your brain. You will hate yourself, you will hate life, etc...there are lots of better reads on the science of gambling and what it does to your brain chemistry. It simply is not publicized more because gambling is a huge business and for some cities (like Detroit), it's how they continue to tax the poor and keep the city going. Americans are also poorly educated on odds, math, and reality. And even when we understand odds, we are often brainwashed by capitalism to think we can be one of those antedotacle stories where we strike it rich. It is all just another way to transfer wealth from the poor to the rich. People with money DO NOT Gamble. If they do, they lose. If Charles Barkley and John Daly and Michael Jordan can't make money betting sports, then how the fuck do us average Joe's come up with the belief that we can make money? I've got a lot of stories, so we can always shoot the shit of how it can get worse.
If you're young and you like sports and gambling, you should stay straight as an arrow and you should get into the casino and bookmaking industry. Make some money yourself and maybe you can establish yourself enough that you can also help out those customers that truly need it.
As much as I want the stacks of 100s I blew the last 48hrs back, I would gladly sacrifice the money to bypass the months of hell I'm going to have to go through again as I try once again to kill this demon.
.

We saw the Duggars coo over an ultrasound pic that would end up with a totally different name last time, and grift kids' meals from a restaurant that they totally do not go to frequently. But today it's time for a more "delicate" matter that definitely requires a lot of handling from overly-interested parents who totally want to control their kids' sex lives, but don't even manage to ensure their eldest son doesn't sexually abuse his sisters: Dating.
But wait. Who are the Duggar kids supposed to date? So far, the Duggars have been the only people inhabiting their particular alternate reality of home perms, Prairie dresses, tater tots, and pickles, where having 14 children is totally fine and everything is just peachy. But no. Jim Bob and Michelle are not the only people who ascribe to their particular brand of religious nutjobbery. There's also the Holt family, who "share the Duggars' religious convictions". And their clothing choices. And I feel some background is needed here, because it seems that Jim Holt and Jim Bob Duggar go WAY back.
Well fuck me, there's more Prairie dresses. Except for Cousin Amy. She gets Jeans.
~~Bobye Holt (Jim Holt's wife), because she's a Jeans-wearing hypocrite.~~ Actually, it's Cousin Amy in the jeans, so, less hypocrisy points for the Holts.
"I met Jim Bob Duggar, he and I grew up together. We went to Shiloh Christian High School from seventh grade on. We were gonna sell books together in Kansas, Bibles and encyclopedias," says Jim (Holt. Gotta specify here, but at least now I know why Jim Bob needs that Bob behind Jim to differentiate). What he conveniently does NOT mention, because it would not go well with the salt-of-the-earth ordinary family but qUiRkY vibe everyone is going for here, is that Jim and Jim Bob (goddamn it, what is so very wrong with James?) also served in the Arkansas House of Representatives together in the early 2000s. Nothing to see here, just two hard-working ordinary American men who just coincidentally have the money and the power to get elected to the Arkansas House of Representatives. Nothing special about them at all. They're just like you!
The connection between the Holts and the Duggars was not merely political. The families are portrayed as very buddy-buddy in the special, and they also "home church" together at the Duggar home. Now, me being very European and very heathen-ish, with a Catholic background where your church doesn't count if you don't have it in triplicate from the fucking Vatican, I have no idea what a home church is, but it sounds roughly like someone (probably someone with a dick) decided the local church is not strict enough for them, and so they made their own church, with blackjack and hookers. Sometimes even literally. Yes, I'm looking at you, Josh.
Can you die of boredom? Because the Duggar home church looks like it's definitely trying to murder everyone.
But that is in the future. For now, all is well in the little Duggar-Holt bubble. Jim Bob and Jim play some Fundie bullshit bingo together, calling their home church "a neat little fellowship", where "the spirit is very sweet". The families allegedly have cookouts and we see them at an ice skating rink. "When the families get together, it's a chance for the kids and adults to relate to people who live life the way they do, not an easy thing to find. Which leads us to a common question: How will the Duggars handle the delicate issue of dating? With lead son Josh aged 16, this issue is about to become more than theoretical."
The one who is supposed to answer that question for us? Michelle. In a talking head. Without Jim Bob to stare at so he can give her little pointers on if she's saying the right thing. And yes, it is exactly as gloriously awful as you're imagining it. I will quote it here for you in its entirety, because it really is a fucking trainwreck and Michelle can't hold a thought to save her life, bless her shriveled little heart. "We have... met others that, erm, there might be an interest, among our children, you know. They spend time together, never alone... for one thing... just boy and a girl, alone, ideally, we're in groups and they usually are together... erm, with others, when we're visiting with... with friends, and that sort of thing. And so, erm, in that respect, it's a protection for their heart too."
Ice Skating with Mommy and Daddy totally protects you from falling in love. Totally.
Wow. That is a lot of words and a lot of erms and a lot of confusion for: There might be someone one of our kids' is interested in, and we don't allow them to go out together. And it's actually a fat load of bullshit too, because have those morons never read a totally not NIKE Jane Austen book? Those people are rarely alone too, but that doesn't stop them from falling in love via intense stares, books, witty conversation, and piano recitals. Seriously. Either Jim Bob and Michelle have an IQ below that of the average rock, or their "protection for their hearts" stick is just a front for what they really want to do: Control their children, and especially their children's sexuality. And we all know just how astonishingly well that went in the Duggar family.
Josh, who is interviewed next, is not half as confused as Michelle though. He sounds like he hasn't just drunk the cool-aid, but like he mainlined it, bathed in it, and now uses it as a facial cleanser twice a day. And he has also mastered the "Jim Bob Seriousy Looking Into The Camera Because This Is Important"-Stare that has been annoying me for so long now. He even sounds the same as his father, compared to his earlier, more natural tones during the "My father is an idiot for thinking we can build this house!" talking head and it's fucking creepy. "I think... I don't look at it as much as dating, as I do looking for a lifelong partner. And I think you can give your heart away to so many, and I think that if you're gonna give your heart away you need to be giving it to someone who's gonna love you and care about you and not someone who's gonna simply get carried away with their emotions."
Help why is there more than one Jim Bob?
Have you ever heard something that is so wrong mind-bogglingly wrong on more levels than sex in an elevator that you just stare at it for a bit, marvel at the wrongness of it all, and then think "Fuck, where do I even start?" That's how I feel about Josh's quote. It's the kind of internally inconsistent and ludicrous shit you'd never be able to come up with if someone walked up to you and said, "Quick! Say something mind-bogglingly stupid!" It defies logic and common sense. And it's just so... cruel of Michelle and Jim Bob, knowing what they know, what we know now, to put their son on national television and have him talk about how dating is evil and "getting carried away with their emotions" is wrong while they full well know that their squeaky-clean smug little son has already sexually abused his sisters. Self-aware as a bunch of bricks, those smug, condescending, holier-than-thou assholes. Also... how much of your heart is sexually abusing your younger sisters? A third? Half? All of it? None, because they didn't date and it doesn't count because of that?
This is the face I make when the Duggars try to explain their reasoning for being controlling asshats with an unhealthy focus on their children's sex lives.
And of course Jim Bob just has to double down on the bullshit. "Or goal is for each one of your children to find that special person, just like I did, and we really believe that God's created that person already for them." Like, seriously, Jim Bob. I bet you're the type who will bitch about not straight people being oh so gay AT you when they mention their partner and thinks that "Happy Holidays" mugs are an attack on Christian culture, but you're right there, just casually assuming that everyone's highest calling in life is having sex with their wife and then lining up all of their little sex certificates in order of birth like you do, and go all "look at all the ~~children~~ sex I have!" I just can't with that asshat. I just fucking can't.
Fortunately for me, because I can't take another second of Jim Bob's smug holier than thou bullshit, all is not well in the Duggar-Holt alternate reality. That, of course, is not shown in the special. In the special, Kaeleigh Holt (who is two days older than Josh Duggar) still looks at Sex Pest like he's the second coming of White Fundie Jesus, even though nothing indicates Josh and Kaeleigh were ever an item, except the totally not coincidental discussion of Duggar dating while we see the two families interacting.
What is not shown is the allegedly somewhat ugly aftermath. We know that Jim and Jim Bob had a falling out (because the Holts stopped appearing on Duggar television). The reason for that falling out is more unclear, with speculation ranging from them being two patriarchial assholes who don't share well, even with other patriarchial assholes, to Jim Holt finding Josh Duggar watching porn while Josh was working on his re-election campaign, to Josh sexually abusing one of Holt's daughters, and him ending Josh's "betrothal" with Kaeleigh Holt because of that. All of the links are going to DuggarsSnark threads btw, because most of this is speculation. If you have better sources, please link them in the thread so snarkers can form their own opinions!
Shame on you. You're a creepy asshole who would still be actively working on taking away women's rights if you could find enough people to vote for you.
Kaeleigh Holt is now married with four kids and really into CrossFit, and while I can't but feel that she dodged a Deathstar-sized wrecking ball when her dad broke things off... HOW FUCKING NUTS DOES A FATHER HAVE TO BE TO BETROTH HIS DAUGHTER WHEN SHE WAS WHAT, FOURTEEN YEARS OLD, IN THE FIRST PLACE? Like, seriously, Jim? What the fuck is wrong with you? How did no one think that this is a completely, utterly reprehensible and de-humanizing idea that should have died out centuries ago? Controlling members' relationships is like, textbook level cult behavior, and in their circle, nobody thought anything was wrong with telling literal children that they're going to get married when they're grown up? Jesus F. Christ. No matter how good they're at hiding it, everyone in the Duggar bubble seems to be an utterly fucked up, dysfunctional human being.
Up next: After this seemingly endless season of pregnancy, we'll finally see the baby they've been milking for so long.

I work as a table games dealer in a tribal casino thats still open during the pandemic. In order to stay as safe as possible the casino has put up plexiglass barriers on all the tables between the dealer and the players with enough room under for the players to place bets and pick up cards. Ive recently realized that on certain games, (pai gow, 3 card poker, pitch blackjack) i can see the reflection of players cards in their hands on the plexiglass. Ive been using this information to entertain my players by telling them I can guess their hands based purely on their eyes expression. (Everyone's wearing masks for covid) its all for entertainment purposes and there is no cheating involved. Most of my player get a kick out of it. One player did not.
A young lady in her 30s in a slightly revealing top sits in the only open spot on my pai gow table. I deal the cards, and start looking around at the players hands. Her first hand is a full house. Three aces and a pair of 9s.
Without realizing that looking at the reflecion of the plexiglass puts my eyes in direct line of site to her chest, i look at her, point at her cards, give a big thumbs up and say "very nice". she had missunderstood my comment of her cards as a comment about her chest and started to flip out.
I didn't realize what was going on for a second. My floor came over wondering what was going on. The player told my floor I was being "perverted" and a pig. I was honestly confused because I hadn't realized what had happened. My floor (who really doesn't like me) started asking the player what happened before asking me. The player said I was ogling her tits (her words) and making obscene comments. The floor was highly surprised by the accusation, mainly because everyone knows im a married man and I don't generally make comments about woman's appearances.
The whole time she's talking to my floor, she has her cards face down on the table. She doesnt know that I know what's in her hand. She's talking about me needing to be fired and that she wanted to talk to the top manager in my department. My floor goes to the phone to call the pit boss (without asking for my side of the story).
While the floor is at the phone, I first apologize, then I explain to the lady I was complimenting her on her full house. She gets a confused look in her eyes. I say "I was commenting on your hand. You have 3 aces and 2 9s." She asks me how I know what her hand is. I explained that I can see her cards in the reflection of the plexiglass. I even tell her the guy on last spot has a pai gow. He flips his hand over and shows that he does indeed have a pai gow. (Pai gow means no pair in hand)
She gets quiet for a second, then apologizes for accusing me of being inappropriate. The floor comes over and tells her the pit boss is on his way. The lady says it was all a misunderstanding and stands up from the game after i finish paying everyone.
I get off the game, explain to the pit boss what happened, and he just laughs it off. The floor however, hasn't heard my explanation, nor knew what really happened. This morning ive recieved 3 different texts from coworkers about the incident. The floor has apparently told a bunch of our coworkers that i complimented a ladies chest, and now my department thinks I'm a pervert.
TL;DR was falsely accused of staring at a woman's chest, now my entire department at work thinks I'm a pervert.

My code(not finished):

#6 deck Blackjack import random #deck and hand creations deck=['A',2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,'A','A','A','A']*24 def deal(deck): hand=[] for i in range(2): random.shuffle(deck) card=deck.pop() hand.append(card) return hand def hit(hand): card=deck.pop() hand.append(card) print(hand) return hand def total(hand): total=0 for card in hand: if card=='A': if total<11: total=total+11 else: total=total+1 else: total=total+card return total def results(dealerHand, playerHand): print("The dealer's hand is",dealerHand,"for a total of",total(dealerHand)) print("Your hand is",playerHand,"for a total of",total(playerHand)) def bets(bet,bal): go2='y' while go2=="y":#betting bet=input("How much would you like to bet: ") if bet.isdigit(): bet=int(bet) if bet<5 or bet>bal: if bet<5: print("You need to bet more.") go2='y' if bet>bal: print("You don't have enough money") go2='y' else: go2='sdfdah' else: print('Invalid bet') go2='y' return bet def win_lose(playerHand,dealerHand,bal,bet,x,y): if x<=21 and yx: print('Player Wins!') bal=bal+bet*2 if x>21 and y<=21: print('Dealer busts, Player wins!') bal=bal+bet*2 if y>21 and x<=21: print('Dealer busts, Player wins!') bal=bal+bet*2 print('New Balance: ',bal) return bal go='y' bal=10 bet=0 while go=='y': playerHand=deal(deck) dealerHand=deal(deck) x=total(dealerHand) y=total(playerHand) print(playerHand) print(dealerHand) bets(bet,bal) results(dealerHand, playerHand) bal=win_lose(playerHand,dealerHand,bal,bet,x,y) go=input('y:') if len(go)==0: go='y' Please ignore the while loop at the bottom because I was just using it for testing, that will be the general gist though.

My question is why the betting system doesn't work. After winning/losing, the balance doesn't change. I got it from one of the other games I made and it worked fine there, so I don't think that is where the problem is. I think the problem is in win_lose, but I can't figure out what it is.

Pls Help

Bored and was reading two plus two again and wanted to repost my black jack degen story.
I got into poker like we all did, watching that fat clown moneymaker luck his way into $2 million on ESPN. Was never that good, would run up an initial deposit into thousands, move up stakes, move higher, then lose it all. I existed for awhile at 5/10 NL on FTP for a couple of years, but I remember taking a shot at 25/50 and losing to that drunk Layne Flack, or at least someone who was playing under this name. Looking back on it now, how those guys just stole from us, still bothers me to this day. And not one of them ever got arrested. I heard Ferguson even dared to show his face at the WSOP and not one person knocked his ass out. Anyway, I digress.
The point is I was a break-even player at best. Understood the stats, could even read people, but had no interest in playing if the stakes didn’t scare me. And we all know what happens when you continuously play over your head or with scared money.
Once Black Friday came, I got my occasional poker fix in AC. I started at the Trop, played a bunch at the Taj, but once I discovered Borgata I never went anywhere else. Over the years I had my mini degen moments, sitting at 5/10 NL with my last $800, spinning it up to $5k and then dumping at blackjack, etc.
By 2014, I would only go to AC once in awhile and only blow a few thousand I could afford. Until early that summer I got dumped by a girl I assumed I would marry. She was beautiful, came from the same background as me and was wealthy. I just figured this was finally it. As my wife now tells me, I was a clueless dick to her and deserved to get dumped, but at the time I was shattered. If anyone has been in love and has been dumped, you know the empty sorrow, the soul crushing despair, the feeling like what is the freaking point of even living anymore. I took those feelings with me back to the Borgata.
I would be itching all week till Friday, try to sneak out of work early, catch the greyhound and ride down to AC. Catch the shuttle or taxi to Borgata and start playing any game I could get into. This went on for some weeks. I was about break even, but break even to a degen is like losing to a normal person. I was getting ancy and poker was too slow a grind. So I remember taking some amount to the blackjack tables and losing it. I then remember thinking its only Friday night and I am not going back to my place and do nothing for the rest of the weekend. I decide to cash advance the max on my card. I think it was around $20k, or perhaps a little less after fees. You feel like such a degen when they fingerprint you on those advances.
Anyways, I somehow blow $20k at blackjack in under an hour. I have no idea how someone can do that. I remember being a mixture of angry, sad and disgusted. I do not want to go home and I know have lost the most amount of money at one sitting as I ever had. I think at that point my biggest one night loss was when I had bet a 2 game parlay for $8k. So this was a huge loss figure for me.
You know at the Borgata how there are the low limit blackjack tables in one area, and right behind there is this like raised dais of a room where the high limit tables are, and to the right of that is the “credit” office. Well I freaking walked in there and asked for a $20k marker. I was kind of hoping they would laugh at me and tell me to get lost. I have never been in there or knew how any of it worked. Sometimes I dream about that night and wish they had thrown me out or arrested me or just told me to eff off.
Instead this manager guy asked me to log into my bank accounts. I showed him my checking account, my investment account and my 401k account. Logged into them with passwords right on this random computer like a total degen. I had around $40k in checking, $150k in investment account and even more in 401k, so this guy couldn’t green light the $20k fast enough.
I took the cash and went right to the blackjack table in the high limit room next to the credit place, right in front. I remember changing the cash and getting started. My whole body was shaking, but when you are in degen mode you just don’t give a crap about the consequences. You just want to get even.
I wish I could tell you some of the hands I got. I wish I remembered anything specific. What I do remember are snap shots. I remember at one point putting purple chips in three spots. I remember playing every base and splitting ten’s like a total psychopath. I remember going on the biggest heater of my life. I remember getting tapped on the shoulder by the pitboss. At that point I was kind of freaking out. They must assume I am cheating. They must think I am underage. I look to the pitboss and ask him what the problem is. He laughs and goes you know what the problem is sir. I say I have not done anything wrong search me. He looked at me quizzically for a second, I don’t know what he was thinking, but then he gestured to the dealer. He said dude, we are out of chips, we’ve called for a refill. I had literally won the vast majority of the chips from the dealer. I take this as a sign and cash the heck out.
I insta pay back my marker, pay my credit card advance right away and go to my room. I had sat down with $20k, gotten to a low of like $10k and run it up to just over a $100k. I remember walking out of the high limit bj room so happy, but thinking very briefly I wonder if this is the worst thing to happen to me.
The thing with betting big is that when you try to go back to your normal stakes, it feels like a giant waste of time. Like my old stakes were beneath me. I take my new massive roll and start sitting in games I had no business being in. I would play the large PLO games they had, I would play the highest limit poker game they had. I remember once night around the superbowl, the one where the pats beat the seahawks at the last minute, playing in a room next to the high limit poker room in the back of the Borgata poker room. It was like this room off to the side with a gate. I had never even noticed it before. I was playing in some massive PLO game and had no idea what I was doing. I remember playing with Shaun Deeb, who is really fat irl, and this kid called Paul Volpe. They kicked my ass so hard. I remember playing in 2/4 stud and the game revolved around this old angry guy named Norman. There was also a douchey pro named Mike I think in the game. He would take the most crap I have ever heard.
Anyways, after floating around for a few months randomly jumping from plo to stud to high limit and no limit games, I discovered the 2/4 mixed game that ran Friday to Sunday. And I was totally hooked. The games were so crazy compared to the boring hold em I was used to. I learned about triple draw, badugi, badacey, super stud, ace-to-five, and other crazy games I don’t even remember.
When I first joined those games, I think people assumed I was good. I was young looking and played such high stakes. But within a month they all realized I was a new fish. The funny thing is at those stakes they tell you right to your face. I was told several times, there is always a seat for me, I was in way over my head, I am bleeding money. Compared to other younger players I was a real pleasure to play with. Respectful, never threw a tantrum, no showboating. I think a couple of the pros even felt like they liked me. I remember one pro, Jordan, tried to teach me the games and how to improve, but I didn’t want to hear it. I just wanted to drink and splash around and be a freaking moron.
I slowly blew through the epic black jack winnings and began taking out more $20k markers. I remember I had just gotten off the phone with the Borgata one night and my roommate walked into the living room and was like, dude did you just wire $20k to a casino? Wtf is wrong with you.
I eventually started playing in underground games in the city. I blew about $40k in those games and looking back on it, I was clearly getting cheated. But even knowing that I still played lol. I also think I was the only degen mark they ever encountered that paid off his debts on time. They even asked me once to stop writing such large checks, could I please make it out in $5k increments lol.
After blowing another $20k one weekend, I went back to my room and looked in the mirror. Disheveled, grumpy but most importantly just unhappy. The thrill of high stakes was gone. It was not a rush anymore. It felt like every week I would work and then go to AC to get kicked in the face. I lost so much cash in the 2/4 and 3/6 mixed games that I cannot blame it on run bad or variance. Someone has to be a real terrible player to lose that much in those games. Look I understand the pros probably cross booked each other, soft played and squeezed me – but I lost something like 25 straight sessions.
When I finally walked away from the disaster, I had lost $100k in blackjack profit and another ~$325k of my own money playing the pit, high stakes mixed games and games in the city. The amazing thing is I was able just walk away. I have not been back to AC since the end of 2014 / early 2015. The money I lost was all the money I had saved since 2010, busting my ass as an analyst and associate. I am grateful I finally stopped before liquidating my retirement accounts, which I had been contemplating at one point. I remember wanting to kill myself during the degen run, but never really had the courage to do it.
I wonder if the regs at the mixed games think I am dead in a ditch somewhere, blowing all that money so regularly every week and then never showing up ever again.

Age 21, First time sat down on the blackjack table with co workers.
Age 22, hit a small jackpot on slots, $900. Only to give most of it back by following week.
Age 23 to 24, I frequent casinos every other day. Playing blackjack and counting cards. Thinking I had a system. Mostly resulted in my paycheck lost in one night.
Age 24, I was introduced to sports betting. Once again I won some money, then it led me to think I had a system. I bet NFL, NBA, hockey. The list goes on.
Age 24 to 27, I frequent casinos more often, every other day. Often ended in misery. The wins I had, usually in the thousands, never satisfied me.
Age 28, I admitted to myself I had a problem but did not know how to stop.
Age 29, I moved to new city and stopped gambling completely. For 1 year.
Age 30, had to move back to original city due to family complications. I visit casino much less often, but each visit is devastating because I cannot go back making small bets.
Age 31, year 2020, Pandemic hits. Casinos and sports all shut down. Blessing in disguise. I stopped gambling. I'm not perfect by any means, but nowadays I think more in depth about each action I take.
Stopping gambling for long term is not as simple as it sounds. It is a process and routine. It is up to that individual to figure out what works. Keep on reading and learning.
Namaste, thanks for letting share my story

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I have been playing Blackjack for a while online and I got to thinking this is the best place to use an app for card counting. I wanted one that would give me the option of counting the probability of a flush in the 21+3 side bet too but could not find any online. So I came up with the idea of using an incremental counting app with a calculator that could calculate the True Count and the percentages of cards remaining in a suit and work out the probability of a Flush. The calculations are set up for an 8 deck shoe but this can be changed easily. All you do is press the + button in the H/M/L in the correct suit in the Hi-Lo for whatever card has been drawn and the True Count and Suit % remaining calculate themselves. I have this on a separate phone so when I am using the phone to play Blackjack, I tap in the cards as the game progresses and reset for a new shoe. Just trying it out now and will let you know how it works. Here's a pic of the app below.
Blackjack & 21+3 Card Counter

There are so many gambling strategies out there right now and they would all have you believe that there's is the one that will work and you will never need to work again. If only it were that simple!
Being the most gullible person on the planet, I have been sucked in to most of these "systems" and I am sorry to break it to you, but I always log off the online casino with an empty pocket. The most frustrating thing is, I haven't fallen for it once, but several times.
Many of the online gambling systems revolve around roulette or blackjack and work on the old Martingale system. That is where every time you lose a bet you double your bet, so that when you eventually win, you win all your money back and then some. I actually believed this could work and have lost over $1000 on this method.
I also believe that online casinos are rigged. It is pretty obvious when you are covering most of the table with your bets and the one third you are not betting on doe s not come up for 18 times in a row (that happened to me).
There are other systems that use software, such as Roulette sniper and Roulette killer. They both work on the theory that if a certain section of numbers has not come up for a while, it will be due to come up soon. This is not how roulette works. I know, because I lost over $300 with this system.
So what about the really expensive systems such as the roulette robots that you take to the casinos to monitor the wheel? Well, I have not had the money to try these (they cost thousands of dollars) but all reviews say they are one big scam.
I have been so desperate for a quick fix for my financial problems that I was willing to believe anything. I don't want the same thing to happen to you. Free systems do not work either. The website owners of easyfreeincome and docsmoney make money when you sign up to the casinos through their sites. They actually make money when you lose! Please do not believe their free advice. There are ways to make money online, but online gambling is not one of them.

A few years ago my family took a trip to Las Vegas with another family. This was just before I was leaving the state to start my second masters degree. The “kids” on the trip were me (f25), my brother (m23), brother’s gf (f23), and family friend’s kid (f15). All the ages reflect how old we were on the trip. I will say that I’ve always looked pretty young. I have a round face and chubby cheeks, so that plays into this situation. Additionally, the 15 year old wore heavy makeup and dressed older. She probably could pass for 20ish.
In Las Vegas you need to be 21 to gamble or linger near any table games/slot machines. I enjoy gambling, I had been playing table games regularly since I was 18. I’m familiar with casinos and comfortable in that setting.
This particular night, the dads went down the play blackjack while we finished getting ready for the night. We had reservations somewhere nice with the plan to gamble more after dinner for everyone, but the youngest. She and her mom were going to a show instead. Because of the fancy reservations, we’re all dressed up - men in tailored jackets, women with hair and makeup on point, heels, the works.
The entire group meets at the elevators to find the dads playing blackjack so we can grab them and head off to dinner. As we walk up to the table that is just off the walking path through the casino, the dealer is just about the deal the next hand and the dads have made their bets. They tell us they’ll leave after this hand. Great, no problem. That makes perfect sense.
As a group, there are now two moms and four kids standing around the table watching this last hand play out. The dealer has dealt the cards when she glances up, looks around the group, stops the hand, looks directly at me, and says:
Dealer: I need to see your ID.
Me: My ID? Why? I’m not in the hand.
Dealer: I need to make sure you’re old enough to watch before I can proceed with the hand.
I’m pretty surprised I got singled out to be carded because I’m the oldest “kid” there and there’s an actual minor standing 6 inches to my right. At this point everyone is looking at me and kind of chuckling. I go to my purse to pull out my wallet and hand her my ID.
Me: I’m 25.
Dealer: 25? Looks like you are. I’d have said you weren’t even 18 yet. I guess you’re allowed to watch the hand.
She hands my back my license and everyone has a laugh while they play out the last hand. We all head to dinner and have a good laugh about me getting carded out of all the kids on the trip even though I was the oldest.

As I said in my previous post, I love Darkest Dungeon, everything about it. So, after completing the campaign with all goals (and all dlcs included) in Darkest difficulty, knowing better the game, I decided to do a tier list of all classes and a review about them. My complete explanation on their position in the tier list is on my live on Twitch, but it's in italian so I don't think it makes sense to link it here.
This tier list was made only thinking about the classes base stats at level 6, and only about their ability to fight against enemies and bosses and to help the team in combat (this doens't count Circus). No trinkets, no diseases (some can be useful depening on the character), no quirks. Just their skills, equipment and stats at max level. Of course, this is just my opinion about my personal experience with the game. I saw lots of tier lists, everyone thinks differently, and this can be seen as the fact that the game is mostly balanced.
Anyway, I'm gonna do a short review of the classes (this post will be really long anyway). I want to explain myself about this tier list. I'll do S first, then A, then B and last C. The classes that you see in each tier are not in order, it's just random. If you don't want to read eveything, this is the TL;DR: S are the best; A are less stronger, some a worst version of S classes; B have some problems; C is the worst class in the game.
\\\ S TIER ///
*Plague Doctor*
Favorite Skills in combat: Plague Grenade - Blinding Gas - Battlefield Medice - Noxious Blast or Incision
The Plague Doctor is fantastic in all situations. Her base stats are okay, nothing wrong about her. During her turn, she can double blight (6xr), double stun, cure blight/bleed on an ally and herself at the same time (the heal is bad, but at least can save someone from Death's Door), and blight a single target in the enemy frontline (7xr), or bleed it (4xr) without losing her base damage (which is okay for her role). Her other skills or good too. Best position: rank 3 (or 4), but she can do something on rank 2 and even on rank 1 with Incision (in case she gets pulled or the party get shuffle). Great damage over time, great stun, she can be played in any dungeon and against most of the bosses. She can even cure diseases with camping skills. Love her. She is also my favorite character in the game.
*Jester*
Favorite Skills in combat: Harvest - Battle Ballad - Inspiring Tune - Slice Off (sometimes, Dirk Stab+Finale)
The Jester is always useful. Okay base stats, low health but great dodge. During his turn, he can double bleed (4xr) with low damage, single bleed (5xr) with decent damage (for his role of course), buff all party for +Accuracy/Crit/Speed (that can be accumulated), and best stress heal in the game. All his skills make Finale stronger, so if you want to use it, it is the best amount of damage in the game. Best position: rank 3. The Jester is one of the best support classes in the game than can deal good amount of damage over time or deal insane amout of damage with Finale if buffed a lot during the combat (best against bosses). I bring him in all dungeons, specially the ones with lots of stress, making him extremely useful to save other characters from affliction. Stress heal is needed almost as life heal, specially in longer dungeons in which he has great camping skills. Playing without the Jester wouldn't be the same to me.
*Vestal*
Favorite Skills in combat: Judgment - Dazzling Light - Divine Grace - Divine Comfort
The Vestal is mandatory. Good base stats, as you won't use her to deal damage most of the time. During her turn, she can single target deal a decent amount of damage against all positions and heal herself at the same time, stun an enemy, single target heal and party heal. She is the best healer in the game, the only one to party heal, and most of the time you need her to be sure to properly heal your characters. I use her everywhere if I can and don't need other damage in the backline, she is that useful. Best position: rank 3 or 4, but she can function in rank 2 as a damage dealer (I don't like it that much, as she loses her single target heal). I serously can't think of this game without her.
*Highwayman*
Favorite Skills in combat: Pistol Shot - Point Blank Shot - Duelist's Advance - Open Vein (or Wicked Slice)
The Highwayman is broken. Great base stats. During his turn, he can deal great damage in the enemy backline, massive damage in the first enemy line with, great damage that can reach enemy rank 3 plus repost (one of the only two character able to do this), and great damage with bleed (4xr) (or even better damage without bleed). He is not the best flat damage dealer in the game, but with his ability to hit all enemy positions, his versatily, his ability to move and hit hard at the same time, and his repost, he is in my opinion the best damage dealer in the game. His repost alone makes him incredible and deals great damage that can even crit. Best positions: rank 2 and 3. His camping skills are not much for the party but for himself, being able to buff lots of stats at the same time for melee or ranged attacks. You can't go wrong with him, he is fantastic in all dungeons, all bosses and all situations.
*Sheildbreaker*
Favorite Skills in combat: Pierce - Adder's Kiss - Impale - Serpent Sway
Somewhat broken. Good stats, great damage, low health. During her turn, she can single target deal almost full damage bypassing protection to all enemy positions, deal full damage plus blight (5xr), damage all enemies at the same time giving them blight (2xr), and get two blocks that defend her from any damage she'll receive. She is really mobile and prefer to be in the first rank, being able to achieve this by simply attacking with Pierce. Her other kills are really good too, it just depends on what you need. The Shieldbreaker becomes better and better the more you level up her skills, specially Impale, and becomes incredible once everything is max level. She is a beast, one of the best damage deal in the game, and one of the only two that can bypass protection. She is worth it almost everywhere, and in the farmstead she is ridiculous.
*Crusader*
Favorite Skills in combat: Stunning Blow - Holy Lance - Inspiring Cry - Battle Heal (or Smite)
The Crusader is one of a kind. Greats stats, impressive health, great damage, low speed. During his turn, he can stun an enemy frontline, deal massive damage to enemy backline moving forward, de-stress an ally and heal it at the same time (just 2 heal, but like Plague Doctor, enough to recover from Death's Door), heal for a decent amount of health one ally, or just smash the enemy frontline with Smite. I didn't think the Crusader could be this versatile, both offensive and support. His damage is really high (one of the best), his stress heal is less then Jester but decent and his heal is less then Vestal but okay. You can play him more like a damage dealer character, or even a support character with great damage. I suggest always putting Holy Lance on him, even if he doesn't start in rank 3 or 4, because it synergize with mobile characters and can be really helpful against knockback and suprise (it is also his best offensive attack because of the huge crit modifier). He is not always great in every quest or boss, but he can be whatever you want him to be. Really strong.
\\\ A TIER ///
*Grave Robber*
Favorite Skills in combat: Pick to the Face - Thrown Dagger - Poison Dart - Lunge (with Shadow Fade or with a mobile team)
The Grave Robber is really good, but a worst version of the Highwayman. Her stats are okay, only her speed shines and she has a good doge, but her damage is a bit low for her role. During her turn, she can deal decent damage bypassing protection, good damage against the backline, low damage but with blight (4xr), and massive amount of damage with Lunge (starting with her in the back row or using Shadow Fade/mobile team that push her behind). Because of these two last skills, I understand why her initial damage isn't the best for her role, but both of them must be setup first (with Shadow Fade you lose one round, and Lunge can't be done again if she is not pushed behind). She prefers a mobile team, that's for sure. However, you can just play her in rank 2 or 3 the whole time, and she will be fine. Good character, I really like her, but it is my second choice if I cannot use the Highwayman. And if I need an other character that bypass protection.
*Bounty Hunter*
Favorite Skills in combat: Collect Bounty - Come Hither - Uppercut - Finish Him
The Bounty Hunter gave me lots of love during my Darkest run. His stats are really good, nothing wrong with him. During his turn, he can deal great to massive damage against marked, pull a backline enemy upfront while making it at the same time, Stun and Knockback an enemy frontline and deal great damage in the 3rd opposite rank if needed. He is somewhat versitile in his role, he can be played even in rank 3, but he mostly kill it against marked enemies. For this, he needs a team able to setup his damage output with their mark skills. With the right composition, he can be a beast, and I used him a lot against specific bosses. Great character overall, I like his theme.
*Abomination*
Favorite Skills in combat: all of them (duh)
The Abomination is the only character that can use all his skills in combat, changing form from human to monster. Greats stats, with really high damage (one of the best). During his turn, you can either decide to use him as human or monster, chaing his playstile. As a Human, he can stun an enemy, blight (5xr) two enemies at the same time and de-stress/heal himself. Transforming into the monster let him heal himself and buff his damage, dealing massive amount of damage to a single target, good damage against two enemies at the same time (buffing this damage for the next attacks), and knockback an enemy and re-position himself in the party with great damage. Because of his versatily, I really like him, being able to use him in rank 2 or 3 as both stunnedot machine and heavy damage dealer. However, we can't forget that transforming into the monster deal a good amount of stress to the rest of the team, and the Abomination himself will be stressed each turn in this form. Also, if he goes to affliction, he will return to human form (and if he is in the first rank, he will become useless). This class is really good, love the transformation mechanic, but you need to pay attention how to use him. Anyway, you can just use him in human form all the time and he will be fine.
*Man-at-Arms*
Favorite Skills in combat: Rampart - Defender - Retribution - Bolster (or Command)
The Man-at-Arms is a mix of support and utility. Greats stats, lots of health, you'll use him mostly a the tank of the group. During his turn, he can stun and knockback an enemy, defend one of your allies, activate repost and mark himself to try and taunt enemies, and buff all party with dodge and minus % stress received (or buff accuracy and crit with Command). I didn't use him much as damage dealer, but his repost can be really good to deal good damage against all enemies that attack him and the one he defends. I don't find him really necessary in any composition, but having him around is always nice and you can use it everywhere. However, I find him better as a support than as a damage dealer, considering there are better characters for that, so if you really needs lots of damage in your party, he is not the best option. I use him in rank 1-2-3, he can do what he wants even at rank 3 and thanks to Rampart he is mobile.
*Flagellant*
Favorite Skills in combat: Punish - Rain of Sorrows - Redeem - Exsanguinate (or Reclaim, if I wanted to use him more as healer)
The Flagellant is a really particular character and I really like him. Decent stats, low health for a frontline character (but he doesn't care this much), great speed but really low damage. Considering he is mostly a damage dealer, his low damage seems like a problem, but in the end it isn't, because all his offensive skills inflict lots of bleed. He can deal decent damage in the frontline and bleed (6xr), low damage in enemies at rank 3 and 4 at the same time with bleed (5xr), heal himself and an ally for an insame amount of health if he is under 40%, deal decent damage and bleed (9xr) while healing himself if under 40%, and heal over time (4xr) one ally while bleeding himself (5xr). He becomes stronger while in affliction and Death's Door, but I don't like playing on the edge so I try to avoid this. The Flagellant doesn't really care against enemies with high protection, because his damage output comes mostly from his bleed effects, but you can't bring him against enemies with high bleed resist (like skeletons) because he will be almost useless. Also, Redeem and Exsanguinate can be used only two times per battle and can't be used frequently, because everytime you use them the Flagellant will debuff himself for heal received and done for some turns. Also, if for whatever reason he is knocked back in rank 3 or 4 (surprise or enemy knockback), he can put himself on rank 1 immediately with just one movement (most of the characters can't do this). In the end, I think he is a great character, really useful in general but not in every situation. I know that he was broken during his release, but now I think he is just great.
*Hellion*
Favorite Skills in combat: Wicked Hack - Iron Swan - Bleed Out - If it Bleeds or Breakthrough
The Hellion is an other of the best damage dealer in the game. Her stats are great, with great damage. During her turn, she can deal great damage in the frontline, deal great damage against rank 4 enemy, deal massive damage and bleed (5xr) against the first rank enemy, deal good damage and bleed (4xr) against rank 2 and 3, or re-position herself in the frontline while dealing a good amount of damage against the first 3 enemies at the same time. She is best in rank 1, but can function on rank 2 and move forward if she needs to come back on rank 1 (cause of a knockback or suprise). However, some of her skills reduce her damage for a few rounds. She is also able to double stun enemies at rank 1 and 2, but I prefer to use her to deal the most damage possible during her turn, while others can stun. The Hellion is great, her bleed is good but it isn't her focus, but I find her a bit weaker than the Shieldbreaker for her role (except against the crimson courts, where she is better). In any case, she is really good and a great characters against most of enemies and bosses.
\\\ B TIER ///
*Arbalest/Musketeer*
Favorite Skills in combat (Arbalest): Sniper Shot - Sniper's Mark - Bola - Battlefield Bandage (Musketeer skills are exactly the same but with different names)
Arbalest/Musketeer (I prefer Musk, she is cooler to me) is a bit of a letdown. Her stats are good, but her damage is low to her role. During her turn, she can deal good damage against the enemy backline, mark an enemy (not on rank 1, why?) with a great debuff on dodge, deal low damage against the frontline (both rank 1 and 2), and heal an ally (it is worst than Crusader, but at least buffs the next heal received). My problems with this character are two: she cannot it enemy rank 1 without losing 50% or her already average damage; if she ends up in position 1 or 2, she is completely useless and can only move 1 rank at a time (if you don't have other characters that are mobile, and she ends up in rank 1, you have to lose two turns of your party just to re-position her). Yes, you can use Blindfire to solve these problems, but this skills sucks (love accuracy and hits randomly; if at least this move would push her back 1 or 2...). She is best in a mark team and her mark is the best of the game, but she has to lose one turn just to boost her damage with Sniper Shot (and other characters like Bounty Hunter, at least). She is not a bad character, but there are better damage dealers and better healers without all her problems.
*Occultist*
Favorite Skills in combat: Weaking Curse - Wyrd Reconstruction - Hands from the Abyss - Daemon's Pull (or Sacrifical Stab)
I wanted to like the Occultist more, but I couldn't. Decent stats, good dodge, really low health, okay damage for his role. During his turn, he can debuff an enemy protection and damage, heal (randomly!) one ally (and maybe causing bleed!), Stun and enemy (losing a bit of torch) with high crit, pull and enemy backline in the frontline really well or deal his average damage (but with low accuracy). He is best against Eldritch enemies and bosses. He can be played in rank 2-3-4, depending on the skills you want to use (there are not really bad skills actually, it depends on your playstile). I prefer him on rank 2 for his really good stun. Now, maybe I'm a bit too hard on him, but I don't think he is really good. First of all, his heal is totally random and you can't depend on it (yes, sometimes hits almost full value, but for me most of the time is too low or 0... fortunately didn't bleed most of the time). His damage is low except against Eldritch enemies (which makes him really good in the Cove, for example), but other characters do better than him even against them. His pull is actually good, but you really need it if you can't hit that backline decently. His debuff on prot and damage is probably the best thing about him, aside from the stun. In the end, The Occultist is a great concept, but you can't depend on him for good heals or good damage.
*Houndmaster*
Favorite Skills in combat: Hound's Rush - Hound's Harry - Blackjack - Lick Wounds or Guard Dog
The Houndmaster is not really good. His stats are low for his job, but he has good dodge. During his turn, he can attack an enemy in all ranks with average damage and cause bleed (2xr), deal bleed (3xr) to all enemies at the same time with too low damage, stun an enemy even in rank 3 and heal himself or guard an ally buffing his dodge. His damage output is too low, the best skill about this is Hound's Rush but he is good to great only if the enemy is marked. He can bleed all enemies at once, but his bleed is too low to make an impact (Shieldbreaker does almost the same thing with blight, but her damage is better). Blackjack is probably his best skill, really good stun. Lick Wounds is okay I guess, but he could get at least a bit of stress relief or other effects. Guard Dog can be good, but it gives him dodge instead of protection like Man-at-Arms, and Houndmaster's health is already low (it's a bet). Last thing to say: Cry Havoc, the only party de-stress heal in the game, is random! 6 stress relief is really good considering it is for each character in your party, but with 74% probability? Really? It could have been incredible, I would have put him in tier A just for that, but even if 74% seems high, most of the time I'm just lucky if it works for 2 characters max! Anyway, Houndmaster is a decent character, but lots of other characters do a better job than him, and he is good just with mark sinergy. Dog biscuits are just two, use an inventory slot, and their effect last few rounds.
*Leper*
Favorite Skills in combat: Chop - Hew - Purge - Solemnity (Revenge instead of Purge or Solemnity during boss fights)
It hurts. A lot. The Leper is my second favorite character in the game, but I can't deny that he has big problems. Best health in the game, best damage in the game, low speed, low crit, low dodge. During his turn, he can deal massive damage to a single target in the frontline, good damage on both enemies in rank 1 and 2, knockback and deal good damage to the enemy in rank 1, and has a really good self de-stress and heal. It doesn't seem that bad, but the Leper has 3 big problems: 1) if he gets shuffled in rank 3 or 4 (surprise, knockback), he becomes totally useless and must use one turn at a time to slowly move him in position 1 or 2 (same problem with Musk/Arb but reverse); he cannot hit rank 3 or 4 at all (the only skill that lets him to this is Intimidate, with abysmal damage); the accuracy on Chop and Hew is really bad, forcing him to use Revenge or spam Purge a few times to buff it, which isn't the best strategy against normal encounters. Other than these huge problems, he doesn't have utility to the party in any way except for the enemy knockback and maybe Withstand for the self mark (which doesn't mean he will get hit), making him a lone wolf. I really like his design, his story, his presence in battle, but his problems are some of the worst in the game. To me, he is almost unplayable without accuracy buffs from other party members (JesteMan-at-Arms) or at least one accuracy trinket. But I don't count trinkets in my persona review.
\\\ C TIER ///
*Antiquarian*
Favorite Skills in combat: Festering Vapours - Fortifying Vapours - Invigorating Vapours - Protect Me/Get Down!/Nervous Stab
Antiquarian is all about money, money and money, and just for this is a fantastic help during the campaign at the start/mid game. Other than this huge help, she is useless, specially in late game. She has the lowest health and damage in the game, but good dodge and speed. During her turn, she can blight any enemy (4xr), heal an ally just to get out of Death's Door (the blight/bleed resist is a joke) and buff the party's dodge (her best skill and one of the best skills in the game imho, because she can spend entire rounds just spamming it). Protect Me is there just to let her survive the dungeon, but can be a good strategy with Highwayman's repost. Same for Get Down!, so she can escape. Nervous stab can be used to finish an enemy with really low health, sometimes can be useful. That's it. She is not suitable for combat and that's fine, and at least she has a really good party dodge buff. I feel bad for putting her in my tier list about stats, skills and fights, but she is a playable character that takes a party slot, so she must be treated as such. There is one last good thing I want to say about her: she is the perfect bait for the Siren.

PS: Sorry if there are typos of any kind. Also, I'm italian, so my English could not be the best.

I was talking to a friend and he was talking about a strategy of blackjack where if you loose one hand you double the bet and go again because it’s almost impossible to loose six hands in a row. Is this actually true and how many decks are needed for this to work?

Alright CYKAS, Drill Sgt. Retarded TQQQ Burry is in the house. Listen up, I'm gonna train yo monkey asses to make some motherfucking money.

“Reeee can’t read, strike?” - random_wsb_autist

Bitch you better read if you want your Robinhood to look like this:
gainz, bitch

Why am I telling you this?
Because I like your dumb asses. Even dickbutts like cscqb4. And because I like seeing Wall St. fucking get rekt. Y’all did good until now, and Wall St. is salty af. Just google for “retail traders” news if you haven’t seen it, and you’ll see the salty tears of Wall Street assholes. And I like salty Wall St. assholes crying like bitches.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/retail-investors-are-crushing-hedge-funds-again

That said, some of you here are really motherfucking dense & the sheer influx of retardation has been driving away some of the more knowledgeable folks on this sub. In fact, in my last post, y'all somehow managed to downvote to shit the few guys that really understood the points I was making and tried to explain it to you poo-slinging apes. Stop that shit yo! A lot of you need to sit the fuck down, shut your fucking mouth and listen.
So I'm going to try and turn you rag-tag band of dimwits into a respectable army of peasants that can clap some motherfucking Wall Street cheeks. Then, I'm going to give you a mouthbreather-proof trade that I don't think even you knuckleheads can mess up (though I may be underestimating you).
If you keep PM-ing me about your stupid ass losses after this, I will find out where you live and personally, PERSONALLY, shit on your doorstep.
This is going to be a long ass post. Read the damned post. I don't care if you're dyslexic, use text-to-speech. Got ADHD? Pop your addys, rub one out, and focus! Are you 12? Make sure to go post in the paper trading contest thread first.

THE RULES:

Understand that most of this sub has the critical reading skills of a 6 year old and the attention span of a goldfish. As such, my posts are usually written with a level of detail aimed at the lowest common denominator. A lot of details on the thesis are omitted, but that doesn't mean that the contents in the post are all there is to it. If I didn't do that, every post'd have to be longer than this one, and 98% of you fucks wouldn't read it anyway. Fuck that.
Understand that my style of making plays is finding the >10+ baggers that are underpriced. As such, ALL THE GOD DAMN PLAYS I POST ARE HIGH-RISK / HIGH-REWARD. Only play what you can afford to risk. And stop PM-ing me the second the market goes the other way, god damn it! If you can't manage your own positions, I'm going to teach your ass the basics.
Do you have no idea what you're doing and have a question? Google it first. Then google it again. Then Bing it, for good measure. Might as well check PornHub too, you never know. THEN, if you still didn't find the answer, you ask.
This sub gives me Tourette's. If you got a problem with that, well fuck you.

This shit is targeted at the mouthbreathers, but maybe more knowledgeable folk’ll find some useful info, idk. How do you know if you’re in the mouthbreather category? If your answer to any of the following questions is yes, then you are:

Are you new to trading?
Are you unable to manage your own positions?
Did you score into the negatives on the SAT Critical Reading section?
Do you think Delta is just an airline?
Do you buy high & sell low?
Do you want to buy garbage like Hertz or American Airlines because it's cheap?
Did you buy USO at the bottom and are now proud of yourself for making $2?
Do you think stOnKs oNLy Go uP because Fed brrr?
Do you think I'm trying to sell you puts?
If you take a trade you see posted on this sub and are down, do you PM the guy posting it?
Do you generally PM people on this sub to ask them basic questions?
Is your mouth your primary breathing apparatus?

Well I have just the thing for you!

Table of Contents:
I. Maybe, just maybe, I know what I’m talking about
II. Post-mortem of the February - March 2020 Great Depression
III. Mouthbreather's bootcamp on managing a position – THE TECHNICALS
IV. Busting your retarded myths
V. LIQUIDITY NUKE INBOUND
VI. The mouthbreather-proof trade - The Akimbo
VII. Quick hints for non-mouthbreathers

Chapter I - Maybe, just maybe, I know what I’m talking about
I'm not here to rip you off. Every fucking time I post something, a bunch of dumbasses show up saying I'm selling you puts or whatever the fuck retarded thoughts come through their caveman brains.

"hurr durr OP retarded, OP sell puts" - random_wsb_autist

Sit down, Barney, I'm not here to scam you for your 3 cents on OTM puts. Do I always get it right? Of course not, dumbasses. Eurodollar play didn't work out (yet). Last TQQQ didn't work out (yet). That’s just how it goes. Papa Buffet got fucked on airlines. Plain retard Burry bought GME. What do you fucking expect?
Meanwhile, I keep giving y'all good motherfucking plays:

28/10/2019: "I'ma say this again, in case you haven't heard me the first time. BUY $JNK PUTS NOW!". Strike: "11/15, 1/17 and 6/19". "This thing can easily go below 50, so whatever floats your boat. Around $100 strike is a good entry point."
3/9/2020: "I mean it's a pretty obvious move, but $JNK puts."
3/19/2020, 12pm: "UVXY put FDs are free money." & “Buy $UVXY puts expiring tomorrow if we're still green at 3pm. Trust me.”
3/24/2020: “$UUP 3/27 puts at $27.5 or $27 should be 10-baggers once the bill passes. I'd expect it to go to around $26.”

And of course, the masterpiece that was the TQQQ put play.
Chapter II. Post-mortem of the February - March 2020 Great Depression
Do you really understand what happened? Let's go through it.
I got in puts on 2/19, right at the motherfucking top, TQQQ at $118. I told you on 2/24 TQQQ ($108) was going to shit, and to buy fucking puts, $90ps, $70ps, $50ps, all the way to 3/20 $30ps. You think I just pulled that out of my ass? You think I just keep getting lucky, punks? Do you have any idea how unlikely that is?
Well, let's take a look at what the fuckstick Kevin Cook from Zacks wrote on 3/5:
How Many Sigmas Was the Flash Correction Plunge?

"Did you know that last week's 14% plunge in the S&P 500 SPY was so rare, by statistical measures, that it shouldn't happen once but every 14,000 years?"
"By several measures, it was about a 5-sigma move, something that's not "supposed to" happen more than once in your lifetime -- or your prehistoric ancestors' lifetimes!
"According to general statistical principles, a 4-sigma event is to be expected about every 31,560 days, or about 1 trading day in 126 years. And a 5-sigma event is to be expected every 3,483,046 days, or about 1 day every 13,932 years."

On 3/5, TQQQ closed at $81. I just got lucky, right? You should buy after a 5-sigma move, right? That's what fuckstick says:

"Big sigma moves happen all the time in markets, more than any other field where we collect and analyze historical data, because markets are social beasts subject to "wild randomness" that is not found in the physical sciences.
This was the primary lesson of Nassim Taleb's 2007 book The Black Swan, written before the financial crisis that found Wall Street bankers completely ignorant of randomness and the risks of ruin."
I also took advantage of the extreme 5-sigma sell-off by grabbing a leveraged ETF on the Nasdaq 100, the ProShares UltraPro QQQ TQQQ. In my plan, while I might debate the merits of buying AAPL or MSFT for hours, I knew I could immediately buy them both with TQQQ and be rewarded very quickly after the 14% plunge."

Ahahaha, fuckstick bought TQQQ at $70, cuz that's what you do after a random 5-sigma move, right? How many of you dumbasses did the same thing? Don't lie, I see you buying 3/5 on this TQQQ chart:
https://preview.redd.it/9ks35zdla5151.png?width=915&format=png&auto=webp&s=2c90d08494c52a1b874575ee233624e61ac27620
Meanwhile, on 3/3, I answered the question "Where do you see this ending up at in the next couple weeks? I have 3/20s" with "under 30 imo".

Well good fucking job, because a week later on 3/11, TQQQ closed at $61, and it kept going.
Nomura: Market staring into the abyss

"The plunge in US equities yesterday (12 March) pushed weekly returns down to 7.7 standard deviations below the norm. In statistical science, the odds of a greater-than seven-sigma event of this kind are astronomical to the point of being comical (about one such event every 160 billion years).

Let's see what Stephen Mathai-Davis, CFA, CQF, WTF, BBQ, Founder and CEO of Q.ai - Investing Reimagined, a Forbes Company, and a major fucktard has to say at this point:

"Our AI models are telling us to buy SPY (the SPDR S&P500 ETF and a great proxy for US large-cap stocks) but since all models are based on past data, does it really make sense? "
"While it may or may not make sense to buy stocks, it definitely is a good time to sell “volatility.” And yes, you can do it in your brokerage account! Or, you can ask your personal finance advisor about it."
"So what is the takeaway? I don’t know if now is the right time to start buying stocks again but it sure looks like the probabilities are in your favor to say that we are not going to experience another 7 standard deviation move in U.S. Stocks. OTM (out-of-the-money) Put Spreads are a great way to get some bullish exposure to a rally in the SPY while also shorting such rich volatility levels."

Good job, fuckfaces. Y'all bought this one too, admit it. I see you buying on this chart:
https://preview.redd.it/s9344geza5151.png?width=915&format=png&auto=webp&s=ebaef4b1414d901e6dafe354206ba39eb03cb199
Well guess what, by 3/18, a week later, we did get another 5 standard deviation move. TQQQ bottomed on 3/18 at $32.73. Still think that was just luck, punk? You know how many sigmas that was? Over 12 god-damn sigmas. 12 standard deviations. I'd have a much better chance of guessing everyone's buttcoin private key, in a row, on the first try. That's how unlikely that is.
https://preview.redd.it/luz0s3kbb5151.png?width=587&format=png&auto=webp&s=7542973d56c42e13efd3502331ac6cc5aea42630

"Hurr durr you said it's going to 0, so you're retarded because it didn't go to 0" - random_wsb_autist

Yeah, fuckface, because the Fed bailed ‘em out. Remember the $150b “overnight repo” bazooka on 3/17? That’s what that was, a bailout. A bailout for shitty funds and market makers like Trump's handjob buddy Kenny Griffin from Citadel. Why do you think Jamie Dimon had a heart attack in early March? He saw all the dogshit that everyone put on his books.

https://preview.redd.it/8fqvt37ama151.png?width=3711&format=png&auto=webp&s=0b06ee5101685c5274c6641a62ee9eb1a2a3f3ee

Read:
https://dealbreaker.com/2020/01/griffin-no-show-at-white-house
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/11/bank-ceos-convene-in-washington-with-president-trump-on-coronavirus.html
https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/914736/market-makers--didn-t-show-up-for-work--macro-risk-ceo-says-914736.html
https://www.chicagobusiness.com/finance-banking/chicago-trading-firms-seek-more-capital
https://www.housingwire.com/articles/did-non-qm-just-disappear-from-the-market/
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-22/bruised-hedge-funds-ask-clients-for-fresh-cash-to-buy-the-dip
https://fin24.com/Markets/Bonds/rand-bonds-rally-after-reserve-bank-intervention-20200320

Yup, everyone got clapped on their stupidly leveraged derivatives books. It seems Citadel is “too big to fail”. On 3/18, the payout on 3/20 TQQQ puts alone if it went to 0 was $468m. And every single TQQQ put expiration would have had to be paid. Tens or hundreds of billions on TQQQ puts alone. I’d bet my ass Citadel was on the hook for a big chunk of those. And that’s just a drop in the bucket compared to all the other blown derivative trades out there.

https://preview.redd.it/9ww27p2qb5151.png?width=2485&format=png&auto=webp&s=78f24265f3ea08fdbb37a4325f15ad9b61b0c694
Y’all still did good, 3/20 closed at $35. That’s $161m/$468m payoff just there. I even called you the bottom on 3/17, when I saw that bailout:

"tinygiraffe21 1 point 2 months ago
Haha when? I’m loading up in 4/17 25 puts"
"dlkdev
Scratch that, helicopter money is here."
"AfgCric 1 point 2 months ago
What does that mean?"
"It means the Fed & Trump are printing trillions with no end in sight. If they go through with this, this was probably the bottom."

"hurr durr, it went lower on 3/18 so 3/17 wasn't the bottom" - random_wsb_autist

Idiot, I have no way of knowing that Billy boy Ackman was going to go on CNBC and cry like a little bitch to make everyone dump, so he can get out of his shorts. Just like I have no way of knowing when the Fed decides to do a bailout. But you react to that, when you see it.
Do you think "Oh no world's ending" and go sell everything? No, dumbass, you try to figure out what Billy's doing. And in this case it was pretty obvious, Billy saw the Fed train coming and wanted to close his shorts. So you give the dude a hand, quick short in and out, and position for Billy dumping his short bags.
Video of Billy & the Fed train

Here's what Billy boy says:

“But if they don’t, and the government takes the right steps, this hedge could be worth zero, and the stock market could go right back up to where it was. So we made the decision to exit.”

https://www.businessinsider.sg/bill-ackman-explains-coronavirus-trade-single-best-all-time-podcast-2020-5
Also, “the single best trade of all time.” my ass, it was only a 100-bagger. I gave y’all a 150-bagger.
So how could I catch that? Because it wasn't random, yo. And I'm here to teach your asses how to try to spot such potential moves. But first, the technical bootcamp.

Chapter III. Mouthbreather's bootcamp on managing a position – THE TECHNICALS

RULE 1. YOU NEVER BUY OPTIONS AT OPEN. You NEVER OVERPAY for an option. You never FOMO into buying too fast. You NEVER EVER NEVER pump the premium on a play.
I saw you fuckers buying over 4k TQQQ 5/22 $45 puts in the first minutes of trading. You pumped the premium to over $0.50 dudes. The play's never going to work if you do that, because you give the market maker free delta, and he's going to hedge that against you. Let me explain simply:

Let's say a put on ticker $X at strike $50 is worth $1, and a put at strike $51 is worth $2.
If you all fomo in at once into the same strike, the market maker algos will just pull the asks higher. If you overpay at $2 for the $50p, the market maker will just buy $51ps for $2 and sell you $50ps for 2$. Or he'll buy longer-dated $50ps and sell you shorter-dated $50ps. Max risk for him is now 0, max gain is $1. You just gave him free downside insurance, so of course he's going to start going long. And you just traded against yourself, congrats.

You need to get in with patience, especially if you see other autists here wanting to go in at the same time. Don't step on each other's toes. You put in an order, and you wait for it to fill for a couple of seconds. If it doesn't fill, AND the price of the option hasn't moved much recently, you can bump the bid $0.01. And you keep doing that a few times. Move your strikes, if needed. Only get a partial fill or don't get a fill at all? You cancel your bid. Don't fucking leave it hanging there, or you're going to put a floor on the price. Let the mm algos chill out and go again later.

RULE 2. WATCH THE TIME. Algos are especially active at x:00, x:02, x:08, x:12, x:30 and x:58. Try not to buy at those times.
RULE 3. YOU USE MULTIPLE BROKERS. Don't just roll with Robinhood, you're just gimping yourself. If you don't have another one, open up a tasty, IB, TD, Schwab, whatever. But for cheap faggy puts (or calls), Robinhood is the best. If you want to make a play for which the other side would think "That's free money!", Robinhood is the best. Because Citadel will snag that free money shit like no other. Seriously, if you don't have a RH account, open one. It's great for making meme plays.

RULE 4. YOU DON'T START A TRADE WITH BIG POSITIONS. Doesn't matter how big or small your bankroll is. If you go all-in, you're just gambling, and the odds are stacked against you. You need to have extra cash to manage your positions. Which leads to
RULE 5. MANAGING YOUR WINNERS: Your position going for you? Good job! Now POUND THAT SHIT! And again. Move your strikes to cheaper puts/calls, and pound again. And again. Snowball those gains.
RULE 6A. POUND THOSE $0.01 PUTS:
So you bought some puts and they’re going down? Well, the moment they reach $0.01, YOU POUND THOSE PUTS (assuming there’s enough time left on them, not shit expiring in 2h). $0.01 puts have amazing risk/return around the time they reach $0.01. This is not as valid for calls. Long explanation why, but the gist of it is this: you know how calls have unlimited upside while puts have limited upside? Well it’s the reverse of that.
RULE 6B. MANAGING YOUR LOSERS:
Your position going against you? Do you close the position, take your loss porn and post it on wsb? WRONG DUMBASS. You manage that by POUNDING THAT SHIT. Again and again. You don't manage losing positions by closing. That removes your gainz when the market turns around. You ever close a position, just to have it turn out it would have been a winner afterwards? Yeah, don't do that. You manage it by opening other positions. Got puts? Buy calls. Got calls? Buy puts. Turn positions into spreads. Buy spreads. Buy the VIX. Sell the VIX. They wanna pin for OPEX? Sell them options. Not enough bankroll to sell naked? Sell spreads. Make them fight you for your money, motherfuckers, don't just give it away for free. When you trade, YOU have the advantage of choosing when and where to engage. The market can only react. That's your edge, so USE IT! Like this:

Example 1:
Initial TQQQ 5/22 position = $5,000. Starts losing? You pound it.

https://preview.redd.it/gq938ty8e5151.png?width=944&format=png&auto=webp&s=734ab7ed517f0e6822bfaaed5765d1272de398d1
Total pounded in 5/22 TQQQ puts = $10,824. Unfortunately expired worthless (but also goes to show I'm not selling you puts, dickwads)
Then the autists show up:

"Hahaha you lost all your money nice job you fucking idiot why do you even live?" - cscqb4

Wrong fuckface. You see the max pain at SPX 2975 & OPEX pin coming? Sell them some calls or puts (or spreads).

https://preview.redd.it/7nv23fr41a151.jpg?width=750&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=14a8879c975646ffbfe2942ca1982bfabfcf90df
Sold 9x5/20 SPX [email protected], bam +$6,390. Still wanna pin? Well have some 80x5/22 TQQQ $80cs, bam anotha +$14,700.

https://preview.redd.it/1iqtpmc71a151.jpg?width=750&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=df9b954131b0877f4acc43038b4a5a4acf544237
+$21,090 - $10,824 = +$10,266 => Turned that shit into a +94.85% gain.

.cscqb4 rn

You have a downside position, but market going up or nowhere? You play that as well. At least make some money back, if not profit.

Example 2:

5/22, long weekend coming right? So you use your brain & try to predict what could happen over the 3-day weekend. Hmm, 3 day weekend, well you should expect either a shitty theta-burn or maybe the pajama traders will try to pooomp that shite on the low volume. Well make your play. I bet on the shitty theta burn, but could be the other, idk, so make a small play.

Sold some ES_F spreads (for those unaware, ES is a 50x multiplier, so 1 SPX = 2 ES = 10 SPY, approximately). -47x 2955/2960 bear call spreads for $2.5. Max gain is $2.5, max loss is 2960-2955 = $5. A double-or-nothing basically. That's $5,875 in premium, max loss = 2x premium = $11,750.
Well, today comes around and futures are pumping. Up to 3,014 now. Do you just roll over? You think I'm gonna sit and take it up the ass? Nah bros that's not how you trade, you fucking fight them. How?
I have:
47x 2960 calls
-47x 2955 calls

Pajama traders getting all up in my grill? Well then I buy back 1 of the 2955 calls. Did that shit yesterday when futures were a little over 2980, around 2982-ish. Paid $34.75, initially shorted at $16.95, so booked a -$892 loss, for now. But now what do I have?

46x 2955/2960 bear calls
1x 2960 long call

So the fuckers can pump it. In fact, the harder they pump it, the more I make. Each $2.5 move up in the futures covers the max loss for 1 spread. With SPX now at ~3015, that call is $55 ITM. Covers 24/46 contracts rn. If they wanna run it up, at 3070 it's break-even. Over that, it's profit. I'll sell them some bear call spreads over 3050 if they run it there too. They gonna dump it? well under 2960 it's profit time again. They wanna do a shitty pin at 3000 today? Well then I'll sell them some theta there.
Later edit: that was written yesterday. Got out with a loss of only $1.5k out of the max $5,875. Not bad.
And that, my dudes, is how you manage a position.

RULE 7 (ESPECIALLY FOR BEARS). YOU DON'T KEEP EXTRA CASH IN YOUR BROKER ACCOUNT. You don't do it with Robinhood, because it's a shitty dumpsterfire of a broker. But you don't do it with other brokers either. Pull that shit out. Preferably to a bank that doesn't play in the markets either, use a credit union or some shit. Why? Because you're giving the market free liquidity. Free margin loans. Squeeze that shit out, make them work for it. Your individual cash probably doesn't make a dent, but a million autists with an extra $1200 trumpbucks means $1.2b. That's starting to move the needle. You wanna make a play, use instant deposits. And that way you don't lose your shit when your crappy ass broker or bank gets its ass blown up on derivative trades. Even if it's FDIC or SIPC insured, it's gonna take time until you see that money again.

Chapter IV. BUSTING YOUR RETARDED MYTHS

MYTH 1 - STONKS ONLY GO UP

Do you think the market can go up forever? Do you think stOnKs oNLy Go uP because Fed brrr? Do you think SPX will be at 5000 by the end of the month? Do you think $1.5 trillion is a good entry point for stonks like AAPL or MSFT? Do you want to buy garbage like Hertz or American Airlines because it's cheap? Did you buy USO at the bottom and are now proud of yourself for making $2? Well, this section is for you!
Let's clear up the misconception that stonks only go up while Fed brrrs.

What's your target for the SPX top? Think 3500 by the end of the year? 3500 by September? 4000? 4500? 5000? Doesn't matter, you can plug in your own variables.

Let's say SPX only goes up, a moderate 0.5% each period as a compounded avg. (i.e. up a bit down a bit whatever, doesn't matter as long as at the end of your period, if you look back and do the math, you'll get that number). Let's call this variable BRRR = 0.005.

Can you do the basic math to calculate the value at the end of x periods? Or did you drop out in 5th grade? Doesn't matter if not, I'll teach you.

Let's say our period is one week. That is, SPX goes up on average 0.5% each week on Fed BRRR:
2950 * (1.005^x), where x is the number of periods (weeks in this case)

So, after 1 month, you have: 2950 * (1.005^4) = 3009
After 2 months: 2950 * (1.005^8) = 3070
End of the year? 2950 * (1.005^28) = 3392

Now clearly, we're already at 3015 on the futures, so we're moving way faster than that. More like at a speed of BRRR = 1%/wk

2950 * (1.01^4) = 3069
2950 * (1.01^8) = 3194
2950 * (1.01^28) = 3897

Better, but still slower than a lot of permabulls would expect. In fact, some legit fucks are seriously predicting SPX 4000-4500 by September. Like this dude, David Hunter, "Contrarian Macro Strategist w/40+ years on Wall Street". IDIOTIC.
https://twitter.com/DaveHcontrarian/status/1263066368414568448

That'd be 2950 * (BRRR^12) = 4000 => BRRR = 1.0257 and 2950 * (BRRR^12) = 4500 => BRRR = 1.0358, respectively.

Here's why that can't happen, no matter the amount of FED BRRR: Leverage. Compounded Leverage.

There's currently over $100b in leveraged etfs with a 2.5x avg. leverage. And that's just the ones I managed to tally, there's a lot of dogshit small ones on top of that. TQQQ alone is now at almost $6b in AUM (topped in Fed at a little over $7b).

Now, let's try to estimate what happens to TQQQ's AUM when BRRR = 1.0257. 3XBRRR = 1.0771. Take it at 3XBRRR = 1.07 to account for slippage in a medium-volatility environment and ignore the fact that the Nasdaq-100 would go up more than SPX anyway.

$6,000,000,000 * (1.07^4) = $7,864,776,060
$6,000,000,000 * (1.07^8) = $10,309,100,000
$6,000,000,000 * (1.07^12) = $13,513,100,000
$6,000,000,000 * (1.07^28) = $39,893,000,000.

What if BRRR = 1.0358? => 3XBRR = 1.1074. Take 3XBRRR = 1.10.
$6,000,000,000 * (1.1^4) = $8,784,600,000
$6,000,000,000 * (1.1^8) = $12,861,500,000
$6,000,000,000 * (1.1^12) = $18,830,600,000
$6,000,000,000 * (1.1^28) = $86,526,000,000

And this would have to get 3x leveraged every day. And this is just for TQQQ.

Let's do an estimation for all leveraged funds. $100b AUM, 2.5 avg. leverage factor, BRRR = 1.0257 => 2.5BRRR = 1.06425

$100b * (1.06^4) = $128.285b
$100b * (1.06^8) = $159.385b
$100b * (1.06^12) = $201.22b
$100b * (1.06^28) = $511.169b

That'd be $1.25 trillion sloshing around each day. And the market would have to lose each respective amount of cash into these leveraged funds. Think the market can do that? You can play around with your own variables. But understand that this is just a small part of the whole picture, many other factors go into this. It's a way to put a simple upper limit on an assumption, to check if it's reasonable.

In the long run, it doesn't matter if the Fed goes BRRR, if TQQQ takes in it's share of 3XBRRR. And the Fed can't go 3XBRRR, because then TQQQ would take in 9XBRRR. And on top of this, you have a whole pile of leveraged derivatives on top of these leveraged things. Watch (or rewatch) this: Selena Gomez & Richard H. Thaler Explaining Synthetic CDO through BLACKJACK

My general point, at the mouth-breather level, is that Fed BRRR cannot be infinite, because leverage.
And these leveraged ETFs are flawed instruments in the first place. It didn't matter when they started out. TQQQ and SQQQ started out at $8m each. For the banks providing the swaps, for the market providing the futures contracts, whatever counter-party to whatever instrument they would use, that was fine. Because it balanced out. When TQQQ made a million, SQQQ lost a million (minus a small spread, which was the bank's profit). Bank was happy, in the long run things would even out. Slippage and spreads and fees would make them money. But then something happened. Stonks only went up. And leveraged ETFs got bigger and more and more popular.
And so, TQQQ ended up being $6-7b, while SQQQ was at $1b. And the same goes for all the other ETFs. Long leveraged ETF AUM became disproportionate to short AUM. And it matters a whole fucking lot. Because if you think of the casino, TQQQ walks up every day and says "I'd like to put $18b on red", while SQQQ walks up and says "I'd only like to put $3b on black". And that, in turn, forces the banks providing the swaps to either eat shit with massive losses, or go out and hedge. Probably a mix of both. But it doesn't matter if the banks are hedged, someone else is on the other side of those hedges anyway. Someone's eating a loss. Can think of it as "The Market", in general, eating the loss. And there's only so much loss the market can eat before it craps itself.

If you were a time traveller, how much money do you think you could make by trading derivatives? Do you think you could make $20 trillion? You know the future prices after all... But no, you couldn't. There isn't enough money out there to pay you. So you'd move the markets by blowing them up. Call it the Time-travelling WSB Autist Paradox.

If you had a bucket with a hole in the bottom, even if you poured an infinite amount of water into it, it would never be full. Because there's a LIQUIDITY SINK, just like there is one in the markets.
And that, my mouth-breathing friends, is the reason why FED BRRR cannot be infinite. Or alternatively, "STONKS MUST GO BOTH UP AND DOWN".

MYTH 2 - YOU CAN'T TIME THE MARKET

On Jan 14, 2020, I predicted this: Assuming that corona doesn't become a problem, "AAPL: Jan 28 $328.3, Jan 31 $316.5, April 1 $365.7, May 1 $386, July 1 $429 December 31 $200."
Now take a look at the AAPL chart in January. After earnings AAPL peaked at $327.85. On 1/31, after the 1st hour of trading, when the big boys make moves, it was at $315.63. Closed 1/31 at $309.51. Ya think I pulled this one out of my ass too?
Yes you can time it. Flows, motherfucker, flows. Money flow moves everything. And these days, we have a whole lot of RETARDED FLOW. Can't even call it dumb flow, because it literally doesn't think. Stuff like:

ETF flows. If MSFT goes up and AAPL goes down, part of that flow is going to move from AAPL to MSFT. Even if MSFT flash-crashes up to $1000, the ETF will still "buy". Because it's passive.
Option settlement flows. Once options expire, money is going to flow from one side to another, and that my friends is accurately predictable from the data.
Index rebalancing flows
Buyback flows
401k passive flows
Carry trade flows
Tax day flows
Flows of people front-running the flows

And many many others. Spot the flow, and you get an edge. How could I predict where AAPL would be after earnings within 50 cents and then reverse down to $316 2 days later? FLOWS MOTHERFUCKER FLOWS. The market was so quiet in that period, that is was possible to precisely figure out where it ended up. Why the dump after? Well, AAPL earnings (The 8-K) come out on a Wednesday. The next morning, after market opens the 10-Q comes out. And that 10-Q contains a very important nugget of information: the latest number of outstanding shares. But AAPL buybacks are regular as fuck. You can predict the outstanding shares before the market gets the 10-Q. And that gives you EDGE. Which leads to

MYTH 3 - BUYBACKS DON'T MATTER

Are you one of those mouthbreathers that parrots the phrase "buybacks are just a tax-efficient way to return capital to shareholders"? Well sit the fuck down, I have news for you. First bit of news, you're dumb as shit. Second bit:

On 1/28, AAPL's market cap is closing_price x free_float_outstanding_shares. But that's not the REAL MARKET CAP. Because the number of outstanding shares is OLD AS FUCK. When the latest number comes out, the market cap changes instantly. And ETFs start moving, and hedges start being changed, and so on.

"But ETFs won't change the number of shares they hold, they will still hold the same % of AAPL in the index" - random_wsb_autist

Oh my fucking god you're dumb as fuck. FLOWS change. And the next day, when TQQQ comes by and puts its massive $18b dong on the table, the market will hedge that differently. And THAT CAN BE PREDICTED. That's why AAPL was exactly at $316 1 hour after the market opened on 1/31.

So, what can you use to spot moves? Let me show you:
Market topped on 2/19. Here’s SPY. I even marked interesting dates for you with vertical lines.

https://preview.redd.it/7agm171eh5151.png?width=3713&format=png&auto=webp&s=d94b90dcd634c8dc688925585bf0a02c3299f71b
Nobody could have seen it coming, right? WRONG AGAIN. Here:

https://preview.redd.it/i1kdp3cgh5151.png?width=3713&format=png&auto=webp&s=7a1e086e9217846547efd3b6c5249f4a7ebe6d9e
In fact, JPYUSD gave you two whole days to see it. Those are NOT normal JPYUSD moves. But hey maybe it’s just a fluke? Wrong again.

https://preview.redd.it/fsyhenckh5151.png?width=3693&format=png&auto=webp&s=03200e10b008257ae15d40b474c4cf4d8c23670f
Forex showed you that all over the place. Why? FLOWS MOTHERFUCKER FLOWS. When everything moves like that, it means the market needs CASH. It doesn’t matter why, but remember people pulling cash out of ATMs all over the world? Companies drawing massive revolvers? Just understand what this flow means.
The reversal:
https://preview.redd.it/4xe97l0oh5151.png?width=1336&format=png&auto=webp&s=07aaa93f6b1d8f542101e40e431edccbc109918f
https://preview.redd.it/v6i0pdmoh5151.png?width=1338&format=png&auto=webp&s=74d5589961db2f978d4d582e6d7c58a85f6305f9
But it wasn’t just forex. Gold showed it to you as well. Bonds showed it to you as well.
https://preview.redd.it/40j53u8th5151.png?width=3711&format=png&auto=webp&s=fe39ab51321d0f98149d33e33253e69f96c48e23
Even god damn buttcoin showed it to you.
https://preview.redd.it/43lvafhvh5151.png?width=3705&format=png&auto=webp&s=1ef53283cbc0fb97f71c1ba935c0bd747809636e
And they all did it for 2 days before the move hit equities.

Chapter V. LIQUIDITY NUKE INBOUND
You see all these bankruptcies that happened so far, and all the ones that are going to follow? Do you think that’s just dogshit companies and it won’t have major effects on anything outside them? WRONG.
Because there’s a lot of leveraged instruments on top of those equities. When the stock goes to 0, all those outstanding puts across all expirations get instantly paid.
Understand that Feb-March was a liquidity MOAB. But this will end with a liquidity nuke.
Here’s just HTZ for example: $239,763,550 in outstanding puts. Just on a single dogshit small-cap company (this thing was like $400m mkt. cap last week).
And that’s just the options on the equity. There’s also instruments on etfs that hold HTZ, on the bonds, on the ETFs that hold their bonds, swaps, warrants, whatever. It’s a massive pile of leverage.
Then there’s also the ripple effects. Were you holding a lot of HTZ in your brokerage margin account? Well guess what big boi, when that gaps to 0 you get a margin call, and then you become a liquidity drain. Holding long calls? 0. Bonds 0. DOG SHIT!
And the market instantly goes from holding $x in assets (HTZ equity / bonds / calls) to holding many multiples of x in LIABILITIES (puts gone wrong, margin loans, derivatives books, revolvers, all that crap). And it doesn’t matter if the Fed buys crap like HTZ bonds. You short them some. Because when it hits 0, it’s no longer about supply and demand. You get paid full price, straight from Jerome’s printer. Is the Fed going to buy every blown up derivative too? Because that's what they'd have to do.
Think of liquidity as a car. The faster it goes, the harder it becomes to go even faster. At some point, you can only go faster by driving off a cliff. THE SQUEEZE. But you stop instantly when you hit the ground eventually. And that’s what shit’s doing all over the place right now.
Rewatch: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3hG4X5iTK8M
And just like that fucker, “I’m standing in front of a burning house, and I’m offering you fire insurance on it.”

Don’t baghold!
Now is not the time to baghold junk. Take your cash. Not the time to buy cheap crap. You don’t buy Hertz. You don’t buy USO. You don’t buy airlines, or cruises, or GE, or motherfucking Disney. And if you have it, dump that shit.
And the other dogshit that’s at ATH, congrats you’re in the green. Now you take your profits and fucking dump that shit. I’m talking shit like garbage SaaS, app shit, AI shit, etc. Garbage like MDB, OKTA, SNAP, TWLO, ZM, CHGG etc.
And you dump those garbage ass leveraged ETFs. SQQQ, TQQQ, whatever, they’re all dogshit now.
The leverage MUST unwind. And once that’s done, some of you will no longer be among us if you don’t listen. A lot of leveraged ETFs will be gone. Even some non-leveraged ETFs will be gone. Some brokers will be gone, some market makers will be gone, hell maybe even some big bank has to go under. I can’t know which ones will go poof, but I can guarantee you that some will. Another reason to diversify your shit. There’s a reason papa Warrant Buffet dumped his bags, don’t think you’re smarter than him. He may be senile, but he’s still a snake.
And once the unwind is done, THEN you buy whatever cheap dogshit’s still standing.
Got it? Good.
You feel ready to play yet? Alright, so you catch a move. Or I post a move and you wanna play it. You put on a small position. When it’s going your way, YOU POUND DAT SHIT. Still going? Well RUSH B CYKA BLYAT AND PLANT THE GOD DAMN 3/20 $30p BOMB.

Chapter VI - The mouthbreather-proof play - THE AKIMBO
Still a dumbass that can’t make a play? Still want to go long? Well then, I got a dumbass-proof trade for you. I present to you THE AKIMBO:

STEP 1. You play this full blast. You need some real Russian hardbass to get you in the right mood for trading, cyka.
STEP 2. Split your play money in 3. Remember to keep extra bankroll for POUNDING THAT SHIT.
STEP 3. Use 1/3 of your cash to buy SQQQ 9/18 $5p, pay $0.05. Not more than $0.10.
STEP 4. Use 1/3 of your cash to buy TQQQ 9/18 $20p, pay around $0.45. Alternatively, if you’re feeling adventurous, 7/17 $35p’s for around $0.5.
STEP 5. Use 1/3 of your cash to buy VIX PUT SPREADS 9/15 $21/$20 spread for around $0.15, no more than $0.25. That is, you BUY the 21p and SELL the 20p. Only using Robinhood and don’t have the VIX? What did I just tell you? Well fine, use UVXY then. Just make sure you don’t overpay.

Chapter VII - Quick hints for non-mouthbreathers
Quick tips, cuz apparently I'm out of space, there's a 40k character limit on reddit posts. Who knew?

Proshares is dogshit. If you don't understand the point in my last post, do this: download https://accounts.profunds.com/etfdata/ByFund/SQQQ-historical_nav.csv and https://accounts.profunds.com/etfdata/ByFund/SQQQ-psdlyhld.csv. Easier to see than with TQQQ. AUM: 1,174,940,072. Add up the value of all the t-bills = 1,686,478,417.49 and "Net other assets / cash". It should equal the AUM, but you get 2,861,340,576. Why? Because that line should read: NET CASH = -$511,538,344.85
Major index rebalancing June 22.
Watch the violent forex moves.
6/25 will be red. Don't ask, play a spread, bag a 2x-er.
6/19 will be red.
Not settled yet, but a good chance 5/28 is red.
Front run the rebalance. Front-run the front-runners of the rebalance too. TQQQ puts.
Major retard flow in financials yesterday. Downward pressure now. GS 180 next weeks looks good.
Buy leaps puts on dogshit bond ETFs (check holdings for dogshit)
Buy TLT 1/15/2021 $85ps for cheap, sell over $1 when the Fed stops the ass rape, rinse and repeat
TQQQ flow looks good:

https://preview.redd.it/untvykuxea151.jpg?width=750&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=a0a38c0acb088ebff689d043e48466eb76d38e2f

Good luck. Dr. Retard TQQQ Burry out.

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