Top 50 Soccer Prediction Websites, Blogs & Influencers in 2020
Top 50 Soccer Prediction Websites, Blogs & Influencers in 2020
Top 5 betting companies in Ghana in 2020 YEN.COM.GH
BettingTop10: Best Australian Sports Betting Sites in 2020
Free Betting Source
Top Sports Betting Movies of All Time - 2020 Review ...
A couple of days ago i said i would buy 1k of whatever the top comment was heres the proof https://www.reddit.com/r/ASX_Bets/comments/gra1bj/alright_guys_i_have_1k_to_spend_but_i_dont_know/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf
Megathread: President Donald Trump announces he has tested positive for Coronavirus | Part II
President Donald Trump announced he and First Lady Melania Trump had tested positive for the virus and will begin their quarantine and recovery process immediately. The news comes after it was announced that close presidential aide Hope Hicks tested positive Wednesday evening. Megathread Part I
Group Buy! Looking to grow my actual group of Greedy Gamblers, to afford more top-quality sources of betting tips
Hi guys, I am part of a group where we can afford expensive tipsters at reduced price. We do group buys and by doing so, we save a lot of money on a monthly basis! Instead of individually paying around 450+ euros monthly for premium tips (avg 1.9 odds with 80% strike rate), in group buy we can reduce the cost to around 20 or 25€ monthly, depending on group size. If you are curious about this, you can send a message to my mailbox here on Reddit. I'll give you more details about our actual source, and the source we are looking to introduce soon. I can then send you a link to the group, if you're interested to save money with us. Of course, as a member, you can also suggest your own tipsters if you want, so if most members vote for it, then we pay for it! NOTE: These are NOT fixed matches! Only good predictions from reliable tipsters.
Click here for my: Full Accuracy round-up. OK, this is kind of hilarious (if you're not too disgruntled): EVERY kicker source had negative accuracy-- Meaning all rankings would have been better if turned upside-down. Zuerlein, Gonzalez, Gould, Prater, even Lutz... instead the booms came from Ficken, McManus, Parkey, Sanders, Rosas. My own rankings happened to be the "least awful".
Zuerlein is a great example of how kickers depend critically on game script. He had no chance after the Cowboys got stuck playing catch-up and going for 2pt conversions. The game didn't go quite how anyone imagined it.
Succop did okay for fantasy but could have been a few pts higher if the 2nd FG was not blocked.
Thanks for the kind words about Bullock. Keep in mind I have only ranked him high in the last weeks due matchup; I would keep streaming.
As always, these rankings will be updated through Sunday, so check back occasionally. Yes, I know, Tucker and Butker are low this week. Again there is a risk of getting XPs only. Wednesday Update: Significant changes due to changes in betting lines, weather forecast, and changing Quarterbacks (NE, NYJ, SF). Gonzalez and McManus have jumped significantly. Boswell had fallen a bit due to rain forecast but now seems less likely. Yes, I hear Koo is back I want to encourage you all to pay more attention to the numbers in the chart, rather than the "position" of who's highelower. There's a whole top cluster of kickers within 1 point projection, expected to rank around 13. And you should be trying to think smartly to choose among them-- e.g., looking to weeks ahead, or pairing with your QB or other players. There's too much discussion of "who is above whom", but I have made a lot of efforts to help everyone get away from that mentality! Updated Sunday 55 minutes to kickoff Hoping to hold? Not generally recommended and the prime hold candidates fluctuate week-to-week (hence streaming) but for today the top would be Lutz. Other above-average candidates will be: Sanders, Crosby, Carlson, Zuerlein, Bullock, and Butker. But I still recommend streaming. - My Patreon; Donations are voluntary and subsidize the computer and software I needed in the offseason to make this happen.
This week 12 yrs ago--Lehman Bros collapsed......(Best Interest) Explaining the Big Short and the 2008 Crisis
edit: thanks for the awards. I'd be a dick to take credit. Go check out the one-man-band who actually wrote it---I've been reading for a couple months, good stuffhttps://bestinterest.blog/explain-the-big-short/ (Best Interest) This post will explain the Big Short and the 2008 subprime mortgage collapse in simple terms. This post is a little longer than usual–maybe give yourself 20 minutes to sift through it. But I promise you’ll leave feeling like you can tranche (that’s a verb, right?!) the whole financial system! Key Players First, I want to introduce the players in the financial crisis, as they might not make sense at first blush. One of the worst parts about the financial industry is how they use deliberately obtuse language to explain relatively simple ideas. Their financial acronyms are hard to keep track of. In order to explain the Big Short, these players–and their roles–are key. Individuals, a.k.a. regular people who take out mortgages to buy houses; for example, you and me! Mortgage lenders, like a local bank or a mortgage lending specialty shop, who give out mortgages to individuals. Either way, they’re probably local people that the individual home-buyer would meet in person. Bigbanks, such as Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, who buy lots of mortgages from lenders. After this transaction, the homeowner would owe money to the big bank instead of the lender. Collateralized debt obligations (CDOs)—deep breath!—who take mortgages from big banks and bundle them all together into a bond (see below). And just like before, this step means that the home-buyer now owes money to the CDO. Why is this done?! I’ll explain, I promise. Ratings agencies, whose job is to determine the risk of a CDO—is it filled with safe mortgages, or risky mortgages? Investors, who buy part of a CDO and get repaid as the individual homeowners start paying back their mortgage. Feel lost already? I’m going to be a good jungle guide and get you through this. Stick with me. Quick definition: Bonds A bond can be thought of as a loan. When you buy a bond, you are loaning your money. The issuer of the bond is borrowing your money. In exchange for borrowing your money, the issuer promises to pay you back, plus interest, in a certain amount of time. Sometimes, the borrower cannot pay the investor back, and the bond defaults, or fails. Defaults are not good for the investor. The CDO—which is a bond—could hold thousands of mortgages in it. It’s a mortgage-backed bond, and therefore a type of mortgage-backed security. If you bought 1% of a CDO, you were loaning money equivalent to 1% of all the mortgage principal, with the hope of collecting 1% of the principal plus interest as the mortgages got repaid. There’s one more key player, but I’ll wait to introduce it. First… The Whys, Explained Why does an individual take out a mortgage? Because they want a home. Can you blame them?! A healthy housing market involves people buying and selling houses. How about the lender; why do they lend? It used to be so they would slowly make interest money as the mortgage got repaid. But nowadays, the lender takes a fee (from the homeowner) for creating (or originating) the mortgage, and then immediately sells to mortgage to… A big bank. Why do they buy mortgages from lenders? Starting in the 1970s, Wall St. started buying up groups of loans, tying them all together into one bond—the CDO—and selling slices of that collection to investors. When people buy and sell those slices, the big banks get a cut of the action—a commission. Why would an investor want a slice of a mortgage CDO? Because, like any other investment, the big banks promised that the investor would make their money back plus interest once the homeowners began repaying their mortgages. You can almost trace the flow of money and risk from player to player. At the end of the day, the investor needs to get repaid, and that money comes from homeowners. CDOs are empty buckets Homeowners and mortgage lenders are easy to understand. But a big question mark swirls around Wall Street’s CDOs. I like to think of the CDO as a football field full of empty buckets—one bucket per mortgage. As an investor, you don’t purchase one single bucket, or one mortgage. Instead, you purchase a thin horizontal slice across all the buckets—say, a half-inch slice right around the 1-gallon mark. As the mortgages are repaid, it starts raining. The repayments—or rain—from Mortgage A doesn’t go solely into Bucket A, but rather is distributed across all the buckets, and all the buckets slowly get re-filled. As long as your horizontal slice of the bucket is eventually surpassed, you get your money back plus interest. You don’t need every mortgage to be repaid. You just need enough mortgages to get to your slice. It makes sense, then, that the tippy top of the bucket—which gets filled up last—is the highest risk. If too many of the mortgages in the CDO fail and aren’t repaid, then the tippy top of the bucket will never get filled up, and those investors won’t get their money back. These horizontal slices are called tranches, which might sound familiar if you’ve read the book or watched the movie. So far, there’s nothing too wrong about this practice. It’s simply moving the risk from the mortgage lender to other investors. Sure, the middle-men (banks, lenders, CDOs) are all taking a cut out of all the buy and sell transactions. But that’s no different than buying lettuce at grocery store prices vs. buying straight from the farmer. Middle-men take a cut. It happens. But now, our final player enters the stage… Credit Default Swaps: The Lynchpin of the Big Short Screw you, Wall Street nomenclature! A credit default swap sounds complicated, but it’s just insurance. Very simple, but they have a key role to explain the Big Short. Investors thought, “Well, since I’m buying this risky tranche of a CDO, I might want to hedge my bets a bit and buy insurance in case it fails.” That’s what a credit default swap did. It’s insurance against something failing. But, there is a vital difference between a credit default swap and normal insurance. I can’t buy an insurance policy on your house, on your car, or on your life. Only you can buy those policies. But, I could buy insurance on a CDO mortgage bond, even if I didn’t own that bond! Not only that, but I could buy billions of dollars of insurance on a CDO that only contained millions of dollars of mortgages. It’s like taking out a $1 million auto policy on a Honda Civic. No insurance company would allow you to do this, but it was happening all over Wall Street before 2008. This scenario essentially is “the big short” (see below)—making huge insurance bets that CDOs will fail—and many of the big banks were on the wrong side of this bet! Credit default swaps involved the largest amounts of money in the subprime mortgage crisis. This is where the big Wall Street bets were taking place. Quick definition: Short A short is a bet that something will fail, get worse, or go down. When most people invest, they buy long (“I want this stock price to go up!”). A short is the opposite of that. Certain individuals—like main characters Steve Eisman (aka Mark Baum in the movie, played by Steve Carrell) and Michael Burry (played by Christian Bale) in the 2015 Oscar-nominated film The Big Short—realized that tons of mortgages were being made to people who would never be able to pay them back. If enough mortgages failed, then tranches of CDOs start to fail—no mortgage repayment means no rain, and no rain means the buckets stay empty. If CDOs fail, then the credit default swap insurance gets paid out. So what to do? Buy credit default swaps! That’s the quick and dirty way to explain the Big Short. Why buy Dog Shit? Wait a second. Why did people originally invest in these CDO bonds if they were full of “dog shit mortgages” (direct quote from the book) in the first place? Since The Big Short protagonists knew what was happening, shouldn’t the investors also have realized that the buckets would never get refilled? For one, the prospectus—a fancy word for “owner’s manual”—of a CDO was very difficult to parse through. It was hard to understand exactly which mortgages were in the CDO. This is a skeevy big bank/CDO practice. And even if you knew which mortgages were in a CDO, it was nearly impossible to realize that many of those mortgages were made fraudulently. The mortgage lenders were knowingly creating bad mortgages*.* They were giving loans to people with no hopes of repaying them. Why? Because the lenders knew they could immediately sell that mortgage—that risk—to a big bank, which would then securitize the mortgage into a CDO, and then sell that CDO to investors. Any risk that the lender took by creating a bad mortgage was quickly transferred to the investor. So…because you can’t decipher the prospectus to tell which mortgages are in a CDO, it was easier to rely on the CDO’s rating than to evaluate each of the underlying mortgages. It’s the same reason why you don’t have to understand how engines work when you buy a car; you just look at Car & Driver or Consumer Reports for their opinions, their ratings. The Ratings Agencies Investors often relied on ratings to determine which bonds to buy. The two most well-known ratings agencies from 2008 were Moody’s and Standard & Poor’s (heard of the S&P 500?). The ratings agency’s job was to look at a CDO that a big bank created, understand the underlying assets (in this case, the mortgages), and give the CDO a rating to determine how safe it was. A good rating is “AAA”—so nice, it got ‘A’ thrice. So, were the ratings agencies doing their jobs? No! There are a few explanations for this:
Even they—the experts in charge of grading the bonds—didn’t understand what was going on inside a CDO. The owner’s manual descriptions (prospectuses) were too complicated. In fact, ratings agencies often relied on big banks to teach seminars about how to rate CDOs, which is like a teacher learning how to grade tests from Timmy, who still pees his pants. Timmy just wants an A.
Ratings agencies are profit-driven companies. When they give a rating, they charge a fee. But if the agency hands out too many bad grades, then their customers—the big banks—will take their requests elsewhere in hopes of higher grades. The ratings agencies weren’t objective, but instead were biased by their need for profits.
Remember those fraudulent mortgages that the lenders were making? Unless you did some boots-on-the-ground research, it was tough to uncover this fact. It’s hard to blame the ratings agencies for not catching this.
Who’s to blame? Everyone? Let’s play devil’s advocate…
Individuals: some people point the finger at homeowners, saying, “You should know better than to buy a $1 million house on a teacher’s salary.” I find this hard to swallow. These people, surrounded by the American home-ownership dream, were sold the idea that they would be fine. The mortgage lender had no incentive to sell a good mortgage, they only had an incentive to sell a mortgage. So, it’s hard for me to put too much blame on the homeowners.
Mortgage lenders: someone knew. I’m not saying that all the mortgage lenders were fully aware of the implications of their actions, but some people knew that fraudulent loans were being made, and chose to ignore that fact. For example, check out whistleblower Eileen Foster.
Big banks: Yes sir! There’s certainly blame here. Rather than get into all of the various money-grubbing, I want to call out one specific anecdote. Back in 2010, Goldman Sachs CEO Lloyd Blankfein testified in front of Congress. Here it is:
To explain further, there are two things going on here. First, Goldman Sachs bankers were selling CDOs to investors. They wanted to make a commission on the sale. At the same time, other bankers ALSO AT GOLDMAN SACHS were buying credit default swaps, a.k.a. betting against the same CDOs that the first Goldman Sachs bankers were selling. This is like selling someone a racehorse with cancer, and then immediately going to the track to bet against that horse. Blankfein’s defense in this video is, “But the horse seller and the bettor weren’t the same people!” And the Congressmen responds, “But they worked for the same stable, and collected the same paychecks!” So do the big banks deserve blame? You tell me. Inspecting Goldman Sachs One reason Goldman Sachs survived 2008 is that they began buying credit default swaps (insurance) just in time before the housing market crashed. They were still on the bad side of some bets, but mostly on the good side. They were net profitable. Unfortunately for them, the banks that owed Goldman money were going bankrupt from their own debt, and then Goldman never would have been able to collect on their insurance. Goldman would’ve had to payout on their “bad” bets, while not collecting on their “good” bets. In their own words, they were “toast.” This is significant. Even banks in “good” positions would’ve gone bankrupt, because the people who owed the most money weren’t able to repay all their debts. Imagine a chain; Bank A owes money to Bank B, and B owes money to Bank C. If Bank A fails, then B can’t collect their debt, and B can’t pay C. Bank C made “good” bets, but aren’t able to collect on them, and then they go out of business. These failures would’ve rippled throughout the world. This explains why the US government felt it necessary to bail-out the banks. That federal money allowed banks in “good” positions to collect their profits and “stop the ripple” from tearing apart the world economy. While CDOs and credit default swap explain the Big Short starting, this ripple of failure is the mechanism that affected the entire world. Betting more than you have But if someone made a bad bet—sold bad insurance—why didn’t they have money to cover that bet? It all depends on risk. If you sell a $100 million insurance policy, and you think there’s a 1% chance of paying out that policy, what’s your exposure? It’s the potential loss multiplied by the probability = 1% times $100 million, or $1 million. These banks sold billions of dollars of insurance under the assumption that there was a 5%, or 3%, or 1% chance of the housing market failing. So they had 20x, or 30x, or 100x less money on hand then they needed to cover these bets. Turns out, there was a 100% chance that the market would fail…oops! Blame, expounded Ratings agencies—they should be unbiased. But they sold themselves off for profit. They invited the wolves—big banks—into their homes to teach them how to grade CDOs. Maybe they should read a blog to explain the Big Short to them. Of course they deserve blame. Here’s another anecdote of terrible judgment from the ratings agencies: Think back to my analogy of the buckets and the rain. Sometimes, a ratings agency would look at a CDO and say, “You’re never going to fill up these buckets all the way. Those final tranches—the ones that won’t get filled—they’re really risky. So we’re going to give them a bad grade.” There were “Dog Shit” tranches, and Dog Shit gets a bad grade. But then the CDO managers would go back to their offices and cut off the top of the buckets. And they’d do this for all their CDOs—cutting off all the bucket-top rings from all the different CDO buckets. And then they’d super-glue the bucket-top rings together to create a field full of Frankenstein buckets, officially called a CDO squared. Because the Frankenstein buckets were originally part of other CDOs, the Frankenstein buckets could only start filling up once the original buckets (which now had the tops cut off) were filled. In other words, the CDO managers decided to concentrate all their Dog Shit in one place, and super glue it together. A reasonable person would look at the Frankenstein Dog Shit field of buckets and say, “That’s turrible, Kenny.” BUT THE RATINGS AGENCIES GAVE CDO-SQUAREDs HIGH GRADES!!! Oh I’m sorry, was I yelling?! “It’s diversified,” they would claim, as if Poodle shit mixed with Labrador shit is better than pure Poodle shit. Again, you tell me. Do the ratings agencies deserve blame?! Does the government deserve blame? Yes and no. For example, part of the Housing and Community Development Act of 1992 mandated that the government mortgage finance firms (Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae) purchase a certain number of sub-prime mortgages. On its surface, this seems like a good thing: it’s giving money to potential home-buyers who wouldn’t otherwise qualify for a mortgage. It’s providing the American Dream. But as we’ve already covered today, it does nobody any good to provide a bad mortgage to someone who can’t repay it. That’s what caused this whole calamity. Freddie and Fannie and HUD were pumping money into the machine, helping to enable it. Good intentions, but they weren’t paying attention to the unintended outcomes. And what about the Securities & Exchange Commission (SEC), the watchdogs of Wall Street. Do they have a role to explain the Big Short? Shouldn’t they have been aware of the Big Banks, the CDOs, the ratings agencies? Yes, they deserve blame too. They’re supposed to do things like ensure that Big Banks have enough money on hand to cover their risky bets. This is called proper “risk management,” and it was severely lacking. The SEC also had the power to dig into the CDOs and ferret out the fraudulent mortgages that were creating them. Why didn’t they do that? Perhaps the issue is that the SEC was/is simply too close to Wall Street, similar to the ratings agencies getting advice from the big banks. Watchdogs shouldn’t get treats from those they’re watching. Or maybe it’s that the CDOs and credit default swaps were too hard for the SEC to understand. Either way, the SEC doesn’t have a good excuse. If you’re in bed with the people you’re regulating, then you’re doing a bad job. If you’re rubber stamping things you don’t understand, then you’re doing a bad job. Explain the Big Short, shortly You’re about 2500 words into my “short summary.” But the important things to remember:
Financial acronyms suck.
Money flowed from the investors down to the mortgage lenders, and the risk flowed from the mortgage lenders up to the investors. In between, the big banks and CDOs acted as middle men and intermediaries.
When someone feels like their actions have no risk, or no consequences, they’ll behave poorly (big banks, mortgage lenders)When someone is given what seems like an amazing deal, they’ll take it (individual home owners).
CDOs are like empty buckets. Mortgage payments are like rain, filling the buckets. Investors buy tranches, or slices, across all the buckets. If mortgages fail, then the buckets might not fill up, and the investors won’t get their money back.
CDOs are intentionally complex. So complex, that not even the people grading them understood what was going on (ratings agencies).
Buying insurance on something your do not own is a behavior with potential for abuse (big banks)
Buying insurance on something for more than it’s worth is a behavior with potential for abuse (big banks). This is where most of the money in the financial crisis switched hands.
And with that, I’d like to announce the opening of the Best Interest CDO. Rather than invest in mortgages, I’ll be investing in race horses. Don’t ask my why, but the current top stallion is named ‘Dog Shit.’ He’ll take Wall Street by storm. If you don’t mind my cussing but you do like this content, consider subscribing to the email list to get these articles (and nothing more) sent to your inbox every week. I hope this post helped if you were looking for someone to explain the Big Short. Thanks for reading the Best Interest. Source: https://bestinterest.blog/explain-the-big-short/
Later in the week, I will also add my consensus table, which combines 4 top sources. Ranking will be updated through Sunday, so check back occasionally. Final Update Sunday 12 noon. I just want to say good luck everyone. I'm aware that Seabruh and I seemed to be the minority or rankers who recommended TB so highly this week, very much to my surprise. I will absolutely be riding them. Vegas lines still don't expect Panthers to score much above 19, let's hope that pans out. Remember, it can always go either way, even for top rated teams. https://preview.redd.it/27wmybc4sbo51.jpg?width=1361&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=f964f6113d5d829e5986afd30c96605dee57041a
Points-allowed Projection chart, Week 2
I thought this was a useful depiction last time. As you can see in the accuracy chart above, Vegas-implied opponent scores remain difficult to beat. If in doubt, go by points allowed. (But also know my models are built and calibrated to tweak in the right direction.) (Crappy update now to try and match changed betting lines) Other stuff - Method - My Patreon - Come on guys, nobody's reading this! [shameless plug for your own benefit]
Haven’t seen one and there’s about 14 hours to go so (window closes at 11pm UK time) - saves people creating new posts to vent, as I have a feeling the rest of the day will see a progressive rise in anger. I don’t know about you lot, but personally looking forward to Aouar and Partey both joining later. I will look to update this summary where possible, but if I am resting my fingers momentarily from the trauma that is the F5 key, Arseblog are doing a rather good live update feed. Summary so far (this is the main feed - find Partey Watch below):
Torreira’s move to Atletico looks like it will go ahead.
Rumours linking Nelson to Southampton, and Saliba to Fulham and Rennes (as loans obviously). Saliba to Fulham seems off, as they have gone for Andersen from Lyon. Let's see if he therefore stays.
Ornstein has stated that moves for Aouar and Partey (as well as Jorginho) appear dashed, and it looks unlikely we can get any backup targets.
Gunnersaurus has been made a free agent, whilst some lovely people are insulting Edu’s son on Twitter.
FootballGhana and Sky Bet Compan- *sorry* Sky Sports News claiming Partey may still move. Charles Watts said earlier that there was no Partey development last night but if Arsenal pay the release clause, the deal would be wrapped up pretty swiftly. The player would've been keen to join & personal terms apparently wouldn't have been an issue. If we want to get really desperate, there is a hollow metal object on twitter who has claimed all summer that Partey will come.
There are some people claiming the Telegraph have said we are interested in a loan for Thomas Lemar (yes, our £80m man). I've yet to see where that is said though so take it with a pinch of salt for now.
From a distance I thought it was tap-in specialist Filippo Inzaghi, but turns out it's just Fabrizio Romano recycling old information for more interactions on Twitter. He says Atletico remain convinced Partey stays, as they have all summer. But 'let's see if someone triggers the clause'.
After an early flurry of news on outgoings and general disappointment on incomings, the current transfer scene for Arsenal currently is barren.
It's now almost 11, still barely anything in last hour.
Right, I'm assuming we must be preparing the Gunnersaurus statue, and that's currently occupying us, hence no news. As a fun exercise, why don't we name our favourite chocolate bars? I'll start, mine currently is that Dairy Milk one with popping candy in it, really rate it.
ALL PARTEY UPDATES WILL BE IN PARTEY WATCH THREAD BELOW. Saves me typing it twice, all non-Partey news is above.
I'm going to say this quietly, however Lyon are in breach of FFP currently following the collapse of Dembele to United (from Barca), and thus Depay to Barcelona. They need to sell. A private jet just landed in London from Lyon an hour ago. This could very well be Andersen to Fulham, but lets see.
Sky Sports hearing about an Arsenal departure that isn't Guendouzi or Torreira. More to follow apparently.
Rumours that Arsenal have now pulled the Torreira loan deal, and will pressure Atletico into making a permanent offer. I don't know about the origin of the source or where it was said, its just being floated around Twitter.
Andersen to Fulham is a loan without option to buy as per GFFN. I believe Lyon still fall short of FFP regulations. Interesting hours ahead, as I think Lyon are just under €30m in the red. They need a sale.
Kicker have said Kolasinac will not join Bayer today.
In one of the weirder rumours, according to Téléfoot, we rejected a loan offer for Sokratis from PSG.
Partey Watch (Tier 100 rumours will be posted here, didn't want it clogging the main feed above)
Ornstein stated this morning that a move for Partey is unlikely, barring a dramatic late change.
STRAP YOUR SEATBELTS, ALONSO IS AT THE WHEEL. THOMAS PARTEY'S REPRESENTATIVE JUST TWEETED AN AOUARGLASS. SURELY NOT. The hollow metal object on Twitter has just said that we rang Partey's camp an hour ago to confirm we will look to complete the deal today. My body can't take this. Just so people are aware, I don't think there is anything in this, but we've been starved of news for the past hour so I figured I would drop it in for all of you who are looking for anything. Please don't actually invest yourselves into Partey again, wait for someone with a bit more credibility.
COPE Journalist has said in the last hours Arsenal has communicated to La Liga its intention to pay Partey's clause. Apparently he is Tier 1 for Atletico. WHAT IS GOING ON.
Charles Watts: 'Legal team is at Colney now working on the transfer. Negotiations not needed with Atletico.'
Rumours that Arsenal have now pulled the Torreira loan deal, and will pressure Atletico into making a permanent offer. I don't know about the origin of the source or where it was said, its just being floatedaround Twitter. Yeah that was nonsense.
Sorry lads, went to the shops. Partey has completed his medicals according to various sources, and is on his way to London via jet. Race against time, but what a day its been.
Partey has landed in London
Charles Watts: La Liga have informed Atletico that Arsenal have met Partey's release clause. Neither the player or Arsenal have communicated this with Atletico. HUGE ARSENAL MOVE.
The Bell: Partey will sign a deal inclusive of bonuses at just over £200k a week.
Orny and the Bell both now saying that Partey is done.
Partey signs.
Rest easy boys, we did it, its been a journey. See you lads tomorrow for Buendia and Cantwell rumours.
Dear autists of wallstreetbets, It is with much sorrow that I write this, my final memoir. I'd like to say it's been real, and it's been fun, but it hasn't, and my journey here has come to an end. A year ago I had a decent paying job, a loving girlfriend, and about $90,000 in student loans from earning my Bachelor's in Chemical Engineering. I lost my job right before the pandemic, which made it difficult to find work for a while and I decided I was going to day trade and start my own business instead of running back to another engineering job, looking back, this was obviously a big mistake. Today, I have $200 in my bank account, $1900 in garbage options sitting in Robinhood, $21,000 in CC debt, and still $90,000 in student loans. I even lost my girlfriend of 7+ years (for various reasons, but my Robinhood problem certainly didn't help). I've been applying for jobs but rarely hear back on my applications, which is wearing this last thread of hope thin. I have no idea how I'm going to get out of this personal hell I've created, but I don't think I'm going to find the answer here, so this is my farewell. If you've been following along, there's only one thing I've gained in my time on this subreddit, a tattoo of the logo on my butt and the story behind it is somewhat interesting, so here goes. On 7/26/20 I posted a bet here saying that if SPY closed green on Monday 7/27 I'd get a tattoo of the logo and sure enough, SPY was green just as it had been every damn Monday of the summer. I always intended to follow up, and it was shocking to me recently seeing how many tattoo (and other) bets have been posted on here and not followed up on. I have too much respect for this community of morons to post anything without backing it up. Following the bet, my account took a dive and I couldn't scrape together even a measly $300 for the tattoo until a few weeks later. I was given 2-3 month wait times from the shops I got quoted on, and had been banned from the subreddit so I couldn't explain myself. On 8/24 Robinhood sold off every option in my account to the lowest bidder, stating it was for a Reg T call that was due to be resolved by that Thursday, 8/27. I am going to do what I can legally to recoup some of these losses, but I don't know where to start and any time not spent applying to jobs now just gives me more crippling anxiety. Finally, on 9/2/20 I was fed up with it all, I took a chance and called an old friend I hadn't talked to in years to see if she'd tattoo my butt. I was dreading this enough before adding the embarrassment of having it done by a close friend, but I had a debt to pay and had no more fucks to give after being berated by my parents earlier that week for just the suggestion that I needed help with money. The artist told me she'd make time for me whenever I wanted, so I made plans for that weekend and drove 5 hours across the state to her shop that weekend. Texted almost exactly at the top I told her some of the story behind the tattoo before getting there, and she told me she'd be doing it as a favor (I didn't want her pity, so we settled on me buying dinners and drinks over the weekend while we caught up). I wanted to include this because she's an amazing friend, and I really needed that, anything you guys can do to support her (go get a tattoo, buy some art) would be greatly appreciated. Photo op Since then, I've lost the little bit of hope I had left for my Robinhood account, with the last contracts that could have saved me expiring on 9/18, while the market has tanked. The exact day and hour that I texted Katie to see if she'd do my tattoo, SPY was at it's ATH and has not come close to recovering those losses since. Here's my loss porn, enjoy. I set up a GoFundMe that I never shared out of shame, but if you have an open position for an engineer (I'm smarter than this post makes me sound) please message me about that instead. If you need me, I'll be living in my car somewhere around Buffalo, NY. My bottom was the top. Sayonara, you beautiful retards.
Tease the underdog when the line is +1½, +2, +2½, or +3;
Tease the favorite when the line is -7½, -8, -8½, or -9.
The strategy listed above is very similar to a strategy introduced by Blackjack expert Stanford Wong. There's debate in Wong teasers over whether we should play games at exactly +3, whether home teams are more reliable than road teams, and whether we should care about the total. I did a deep dive into the mathematical details of those debates in my week 1 post.
Sweetheart Teasers
10-point teasers are often called "sweetheart" teasers. I'm grateful to u/hyperkinesis247 for inquiring if there's an edge regarding sweethearts. After looking at a small sample size in 2017-2019, I've decided to track 10-point teasers according to the following methodology:
For 10-point teasers, tease the underdog when the line is +1½, +2, or +2½;
Do not take sweetheart teasers at +3;
Do not take sweetheart teasers on favorites.
Previous Results
I'm using the closing line at Bovada to determine which games qualify as Wong bets. (You can use sbrodds.com to verify I'm being honest.) The plays last week were:
Off-the-board spread
6 pt
10 pt
Chicago +3
Win
Green Bay +3
Win
Kansas City +3
Win
Los Angeles Rams +2
Win
Win
Miami +3
Win
Minnesota +3
Win
New York Giants +3
Loss
Assuming a -120 payout for 2-team teasers, we must demonstrate better than 73.9% probability on each leg to show we have breakeven-or-better EV. For a -130 payout on 3-team sweethearts, that threshold is 82.7%. Including last week, the results since 2017 are listed below.
Teaser
Year
Team
Record
6 pt
2017
+1½ thru +3
61-23
72.6%
6 pt
2018
+1½ thru +3
63-19
76.8%
6 pt
2019
+1½ thru +3
52-16
76.5%
6 pt
2020
+1½ thru +3
13-2
86.7%
6 pt
2017
-7½ thru -9
27-10
73.0%
6 pt
2018
-7½ thru -9
16-9
64.0%
6 pt
2019
-7½ thru -9
17-7
70.8%
6 pt
2020
-7½ thru -9
6-1
85.7%
10 pt
2017
+1½ thru +2½
22-1
95.7%
10 pt
2018
+1½ thru +2½
24-5
82.8%
10 pt
2019
+1½ thru +2½
23-4
85.2%
10 pt
2020
+1½ thru +2½
4-0
100.0%
The chart above counts pushes as losses. You should strongly consider betting at a book that has a "pushes reduce" rule instead. The reason why my results only count the last three years (2017-2019) is because that's all the time I've had to look at so far. There's no real reason why I'm actively avoiding 2016. I'll be making an effort to look at the 2016 data soon.
Beating the Spread
The thought process behind this methodology is that we assume we will win half of our games against the regular un-teased spread. Then the hope is that we are able to "steal" another 23.9% (or more) via line movement. That'll get us to the required 73.9% win percentage. Last week's Rams were a perfect example of this. We believed that the Rams would cover the +2 spread about half of the time. (If you didn't believe this, you should've just bet that game against the regular un-teased spread.) But the reason we chose this game as a teaser candidate is because we realized that +2 would go through 3 and 7 when teased. We gain the most bang-for-the-buck if our teaser movement goes through 3 and 7. As it turned out, the Rams indeed lost by exactly 3. There's no mathematical reason to believe that we should win against the un-teased spread more than half of the time (nor less than half, for that matter). The data in the three years prior (2017-2019) to this year show that all games fitting our methodology were a modest 155-147-18 against the un-teased spread. That comes out to 51.3% which is not a statistically significant departure from the half that we expect. More importantly, 51.3% is not good enough to beat the usual -110 vigorish. In 22 games so far this year, the selections fitting the methodology were 16-5-1 against the un-teased spread! This pace is not sustainable. This bit of positive variance is also largely responsible for the astonishingly good 19-3 record in teaser legs. I expect a "regression to the mean" soon and strongly caution people against getting too giddy over three weeks of success. My official advice on Wong teasers remains the same as it has been in previous weeks: inconclusive, until we gather more research.
Line Shopping
However, I know that a lot of people are choosing to ignore my above advice and bet real money anyway. If you do, let me take a moment to talk about line shopping. At the very top of this post where my methodology says to "tease (this team) when the line is (this number)", that's shorthand for "when that team deserves to be at this spread". The reason why the suggestion is to use closing numbers is because it's thought that the closing number most accurately reflects the number of points that team deserves to be getting. In terms of discussing when different books have slightly different point spreads: suppose that every book in the world has the Bears at +2½ but your book is listing the Bears at +3½ for no apparent reason. If you were intending to tease the Bears at +2½ all along, then of course you should tease them at +3½. Don't be this meme. If your book is giving you a free point, take it. That's a different story than if every book agrees that Bears should be at +3½. In that case, that's probably what they deserve and an indication that maybe the quality of talent is not enough to justify the bet. An analogy is that if I have a rule that says I'll only eat steak if it costs between $15-$50. The logic is that less than $15 would mean that the quality of the meat is unsatisfactory and more than $50 means that I can't afford it. If a restaurant is offering to sell me a steak at a price of $10, but everyone else in the world thinks that $20 is the fair price for this steak, then I should purchase this steak at the incorrect price. Even though the actual price was outside my rule of $15-$50, the quality of the steak would be satisfactory enough. On the other hand, if the restaurant is offering to sell me a steak at a price of $10, and everyone else in the world agrees that $10 is the fair price, then it means that the quality isn't to my liking.
This Week
I'm only going to post once per week. Normally, I try to make that post on Saturday evening but I'm forced to move up my timeline when the Thursday game is relevant. As of the time of this post, the Thursday game in Week 4 is not a tracked play but it's close. I'm making this post now to explicitly say that it might become a tracked play, so be aware. In addition to tonight's game, the tentative list of tracked plays are:
Chicago +3
Jacksonville +3
Las Vegas +3
Tennessee +1½
Green Bay -7½
I emphasize that the list above is unofficial. Lines may move between the time of this post and kickoff, especially Tennessee! The determining factors are what sbrodds.com says Bovada's line is at time of kickoff and the methodology laid out at the top of this post. If Bovada's spread happens to be a point or so off of the consensus or if they engage in line shading, then so be it. However I reserve the right to reject Bovada's number in situations where it's obviously wrong, such as a typo causing -8 to turn into -80. In all of my data so far, I've yet to invoke this right. If I ever do in the future, I promise to disclose that information anytime I post tracking results.
AMD Tries to Avoid Past Debt-Ridden Deal Mistakes in Xilinx Bid
AMD is in talks to acquire Xilinx Inc. in a deal that could be valued at as much as $30 billion. That would be AMD’s largest purchase ever, by a wide margin, and conjures memories of a similarly audacious transaction from 2006 that left the company mired in debt and flirting with bankruptcy. Wall Street is betting Lisa Su can pull off the latest deal. That’s a testament to the confidence investors and customers have in her ability to deliver quality products on time and her success in slashing debt. LS; SS. Xilinx makes chips called field-programmable gate arrays that are increasingly used in large cloud data centers. The only other major FPGA player is Intel, which acquired the other provider in this field, Altera Corp., in 2015. AMD’s target is highly profitable. Xilinx has a gross margin, the percentage of sales remaining after deducting costs, of 67%. That’s 20 percentage points more than AMD’s margin. In its most recent quarter, Xilinx generated $230 million of free cash flow, $78 million more than AMD, which has twice the revenue. The deal makes so much sense that AMD won’t be the only company interested in Xilinx. “Xilinx is one of the last great acquirable assets in semis,” said Chris Rolland, an analyst at Susquehanna. “Other top potential bidders may include Qualcomm and Broadcom. Never count Hock out.” Source: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-10-09/amd-ceo-tries-to-banish-debt-ridden-deal-ghosts-with-xilinx-bid
Peloton Keeps Pedaling. Last month, we noted that Peloton Interactive Inc (NASDAQ: PTON) has been one of the big winners of the COVID-19 economy and looked at ways to hedge it. Since then, Peloton shares have continued their parabolic move. Here we elaborate on that. We also note why our system is currently bullish on it, and show updated ways of hedging it. Taking Advantage Of An Opportunity Back in May, I argued that government leaders missed an opportunity to mitigate COVID-19 by encouraging citizens to lose weight. While government leaders missed this opportunity, Peloton took advantage of it. Peloton sold more of its home exercise equipment and services with gyms closed due to lockdowns. In its most recent quarter, Peloton's revenues increased 99.5% year-over-year. Going Parabolic Peloton's share price has outpaced its revenue growth. When we wrote about hedging Peloton last month, the shares were already up over 220% year-to-date. Since then, Peloton shares had climbed another 30% as of the October 9 close. Why Our System Is Bullish On Peloton Now Every trading day, our system looks at every security with options traded on it in America, and estimates a potential return for it over the next six months. These are high-end, bullish estimates, and they are driven by an analysis of past returns as well as forward-looking options market sentiment. Essentially, we start with the premise that stock and ETF returns will revert to their long-term means, and then we test that assumption by looking at how options market participants are betting on where each security will be six months from now. We then calculate the cost of hedging each name, and then rank every security by its potential return, net of its hedging cost. As of Tuesday's close, these were the top ten names in our daily ranking. As you can see above, Peloton was No. 8. Interestingly, the next two names on the ranking, Zoom Video Communications (NASDAQ: ZM) and Teledoc Health Inc (NYSE: TDOC) have also been beneficiaries of COVID-19 lockdowns. In Case We're Wrong About Peloton (Or It Pulls Back) In the event our system is wrong about Peloton, we show updated ways of hedging it in the video below. The methods we use involve scanning for the optimal, or least expensive, put options and collars to protect the stock. Even if our system's bullishness about Peloton ends up being right, the hedges we show above could work opportunistically for investors if there's a near-term pullback. Longs confident that Peloton will recover from the pullback could sell appreciated put options to buy more shares, while buying-to-close the call legs of their collars to eliminate their upside caps. Source
Offseason Blueprint: the Los Angeles Lakers may win the title tonight, but their ambition won't end there
The NBA season is nearly over: be it 1, 2, or 3 more games left. With the offseason looming around the corner, we've been looking ahead with our OFFSEASON BLUEPRINT series. In each entry, we preview some big decisions and make some recommendations for plans of attack along the way. Like the NBA, we've officially come to the end of the road and to our final team, the Los Angeles Lakers. step one: know it will never be All Quiet on the Western Front The Los Angeles Lakers have plenty of fans, but also plenty of people who enjoy watching them struggle (some even run their own sports websites.) It feels like they've been a punching bag for almost a decade now. Even when the team landed a coup and signed LeBron James, there were plenty of skeptics and haters picking at the roster and fanning the flames of front office tension. Even when the team followed that up with a trade for Anthony Davis, there were STILL doubters and haters camped at the gates. At the end of the day, LeBron James and company only had one way to shut them up: win. Now, no one can criticize them anymore. Whatever they did to get here -- it worked. LeBron James deserves a huge amount of credit for this presumptive title (no offense, Miami) but there's plenty to go around. Anthony Davis reminded the world that he's a friggin' beast. Frank Vogel did a great job getting the defense to play on a string, especially on the perimeter. The maligned bench with Rajon Rondo, Markieff Morris, and Kyle Kuzma even stepped up in a major way on the road to the Finals. While the team may be drenched with champagne by the time you read this, they still won't be satisfied. LeBron James went back to Cleveland to win a title. He didn't go to L.A. and recruit Anthony Davis to win a title. He wants to win multiple titles. He may get his 4th ring after this year, which means he'll only be 2 away from catching Michael Jordan. If he can do that, then there won't be any doubt about his GOAT status. And honestly, it's possible. James still looks like a top 5 player (if not 1 overall), and Anthony Davis is in the heart of his prime. With a decent supporting cast around them, they're going to be in title contention for the next two or three years. However, the Lakers can't get complacent. They deserved this title, but they didn't exactly beat Murderers' Row to get here. In fact, their playoff opponents had the weakest seed value and weakest W-L percentage of any title team since 2000. Next season may be tougher sledding. The L.A. Clippers could be a real threat with better coaching and better rotations. The Milwaukee Bucks could be a real threat with better health. Health permitting, the Brooklyn Nets have the star power and the depth to be a force themselves. It's going to be a dogfight next season. The Lakers still may be the top dogs in that fight, but they're going to have to scrape and claw to get that bone again. step two: convince your free agents that It's a Wonderful Life LeBron James is a champion for player empowerment, but that concept is going to put his L.A. Lakers in a precarious position this offseason. Some decisions with be out of their hands. The team has an inordinate amount of player options for next season, with 5 separate players having the right to opt "in" or "out" of their contracts. Let's take a look at each of those one individually. The most important, of course, will be Anthony Davis. He has the choice whether to opt in to his $28.7M salary. It's weird to say, but $28.7M is a bargain. Davis is a 27-year-old superstar. He deserves the new max and then some. From the Lakers' perspective, the only question will be timing the extension in the best interest of Davis and the team as a whole. If they wait until next offseason to give him a full max, they may have some more wiggle room in salary to bring in extra free agents (in Offseason 2021, not Offseason 2020.) Perhaps they can convince AD to wait until then to accrue more years. At the same time, uncertainty isn't their friend. If the Lakers disappoint next season and LeBron James hits a wall (unlikely, but theoretically possible) then perhaps Davis doesn't want to stay tethered to this older roster for the long haul. Perhaps his relationship with James -- great now -- bleeds into resentment over time. Who the heck knows. Superstar pairings don't always end with "happily ever after." Even that remote concern would make me push for a max extension for AD ASAP. The second most important player option will be Kentavious Caldwell-Pope. When the Lakers first signed them, it raised some eyebrows and potential tampering conspiracy theories. These days, his $8.5M player option looks like a good value. KCP shot well this year and played hard on defense. Effectively, he looked like the player that Danny Green was supposed to be. Your hope here is that the Lakers have built enough goodwill with KCP and his representatives to make this a friendly negotiation. Whether that means he opts in, or whether that means he signs a long-term deal, it's a relationship that needs to continue. step three: but convince others to ride off like Shane Conversely, there are a few player options that the team may try to talk players out of taking. Avery Bradley missed the bubble for personal reasons, but the Lakers' backcourt did just fine without him. At this stage in their careers, Alex Caruso is probably better at the 3+D guard role. Still, it's going to be up to Bradley whether to return or not. He can opt in to his $5.0M player option. The value is OK in the broadest sense, but perhaps the Lakers are rooting for him to test the market elsewhere. The Lakers should take a hard line here and not offer him extra years; if Bradley leaves to chase a long-term deal, so be it. If he opts in, he may be used as a potential trade chip. Meanwhile, JaVale McGee has a $4.2M player option himself. McGee started 68/68 games in the regular season, but he didn't always look like their best option in the playoffs. As he ages (now 32), he'll continue to struggle with certain matchups. I don't think McGee can match that $4M anywhere else, so trying to convince him to opt out may be a losing proposition. Again, if McGee opts in, then the Lakers need to consider utilizing his salary as a potential trade piece. Some of those decisions -- whether they want to keep Avery Bradley and JaVale McGee -- may hinge on some other free agents on the team. Backup PG Rajon Rondo has his own player option of $2.7M. All season long, I'd been talking about Rondo as a potential liability for the team. Instead, he justified some of that "Playoff Rondo" talk. Between Rondo and Caruso, you'd prefer Caruso getting extended minutes. Between Rondo and Bradley, it's more of a debate. Rondo deserves more than $2.7M, so I expect him to opt out. Presumably, he appreciates the role and limelight here in L.A. and wouldn't play hardball. If he's amenable to a short-term, reasonable deal, then you'd want to keep him in house. If his playoff hype spirals into outsized offers (anything over $6M or so) then you should thank him for his service and wish him well. The Lakers should treat backup C Dwight Howard (an unrestricted free agent) in a similar way. Now 34, he's become a role player. Moreover, his role -- as the more traditional center -- is no longer a valuable one either. Still, he's pretty good at that role -- arguably better than JaVale McGee. The team shouldn't over-invest in this one-two punch though. If Howard wants to re-sign for a bargain basement deal, great. If he expects a mid-sized contract or an extra year, then he may be on the move again. For both Rondo and Howard, I'd stand firm on 1 year deals. However, the team can potentially add in "team option" years on top of that. The purpose would be less to entice them into staying and more to make them potential trade chips (in terms of salary matching) later on down the road. The Lakers will have more free agents to discuss. Markieff Morris is an interesting one; he looked like a shell of himself after some injuries, but he showed signs of life in the postseason. If that's legit, then he could potentially be a good rotational player for the team (when they go "small" with AD at the 5.) The verdict from team doctors will be crucial to determining his value. Alternatively, vets like J.R. Smith and Dion Waiters don't appear to have any value at all. Fortunately, they don't have player options either. step four: solve the mystery of The Third Man All season long, we heard that the Lakers would need a third star to emerge if they were going to win the title. Kyle Kuzma never got there, but it didn't matter. Perhaps we've just defaulted into a more familiar era of the NBA. Shaq and Kobe won without another "star." Michael Jordan and Scottie Pippen won without another "star" (Dennis Rodman was more of an ultra role player.) With Kevin Durant removed from Golden State, perhaps the bar has been lowered back to reasonable heights for NBA title teams. Still, the Lakers need to figure out who Kyle Kuzma is, and what his role should be. He averaged 16-6 as a rookie, but showed some signs of a "good stats / bad team" kind of player. That fear hasn't gone away. Since then, Kuzma's shot 30% and 32% from three over the following two years, and played poor defense overall. ESPN real plus/minus metric graded him as a -0.4 and -0.7 defensive impact, while box plus/minus had him at -1.2 and -1.0. That same BPM metric graded him below replacement level overall (-0.2 VORP). Kuzma has played OK in these playoffs, but he hasn't had a major role. In fact, his minutes per game is down to 23.2 in the postseason so far, with 0 starts drawn. It's clear that Frank Vogel and the team don't believe he's the 3rd best player on the team. He may not even be the 4th or 5th best player. You may ask: who cares? Kuzma isn't a world beater, but the Lakers beat the world anyway. Still, it's an important question hanging over their heads. Kuzma is under contract for one more year, and then will enter restricted free agency (at a time when they will be a lot of cap space out there.) Based on name value, he's going to get a decent contract. If the Lakers don't believe he's worth decent money, it may be time to trade him now. (Realistically, the time to trade him was last offseason, but what can ya do.) Kuzma's $3.5M salary is easy to move, and the team can attach other contracts like McGee, Bradley, and Quinn Cook ($3M) to match a deal anywhere from the $3M-$15M range if need be. What can the Lakers get for Kuzma on the open market? It's hard to tell. He's a polarizing name, so it may depend on whether their trade partner reads reddit or not. I'd call up Detroit and ask about Luke Kennard. If Houston's blowing it up, I'd ask about Robert Covington. If Minnesota's locked into Anthony Edwards at # 1, maybe they'd be open to trading Malik Beasley in a sign and trade. If you want to play dirty, you can tell Portland that Gary Trent Jr. (newest client of Klutch) is going to sign with the Lakers next season no matter what, so they may as well recoup something for him now. Fair? Ethical? Ehh. But hey, it's proven to be effective before. step five: encourage others to hunt for the Treasure of the Sierra Madre The Lakers don't have much cap space this offseason, but that's not a major problem. They're not going to have to list job openings on monster.com -- available players are going to flock to them. The most obvious reason to join the Lakers would be to chase rings. However, it goes deeper than that. There's not a lot of teams with cap space this offseason, but there are plenty with space next season. If you're a free agent who's not getting a lot of attention, there's one great way to get attention: play with LeBron James and the Los Angeles Lakers. You can inflate your stock for next offseason, when hopefully you cash in. If I ran the Lakers, my first call would be to a veteran like Darren Collison. Collison took the season off to pursue his faith, but reportedly he may return next year. If so, he'd be a dream fit for this Lakers' rotation. Collison can run the point when LeBron James rests, but he can also serve as a complementary spacer. The former UCLA standout has become a very reliable shooter -- hitting over 40% from deep in his last four seasons. He's undersized and sometimes outmatched on D, but the team has Alex Caruso ready to match up with bigger guards. Collison's skill set would merit $10+ million in a good market, but perhaps NBA teams are going to want to see him "prove it" after his extended absence. If that's the case, the Lakers can thank their lucky stars and Jehovah for delivering him into their laps. Other veterans who may be drawn to the Lakers like a moth to the flame would include: the underrated E'Twaun Moore (NO) and likable vet Courtney Lee (DAL). Moe Harkless (NYK) could probably get more elsewhere, but he may decide to bet on himself and inflate his price for next season. Since Anthony Davis still prefers playing PF, depth at center will be more important for the Lakers than other teams. As mentioned, JaVale McGee will probably be back (barring a trade) and Dwight Howard may be as well. If not, the team could try to recruit a player who wants to boost their stock. Nerlens Noel (OKC) could benefit from the spotlight like that; better yet, his agent happens to be some dude named Rich Paul. Overall, the Lakers need to keep pushing and trying to improve, be it through free agency, through trades, or through the draft (where they have the # 28 pick.) This team may have been good enough to win the title, but as mentioned, one title isn't going to satisfy this star, this team, and this fan base. Hollywood's all about excess, and the goal will be to overindulge over the next few years. other offseason blueprints ATL, BKN, BOS, CHA, CHI, CLE, DAL, DEN, DET, HOU, IND, GS, LAC, MEM, MIA, MIL, MIN, NO, NYK, OKC, ORL, PHI, PHX, POR, SA, SAC, TOR, UTA, WAS
I work at a train station that services unusual destinations. Last night a passenger exploded.
“Elle is it?” “That’s what my name badge says.” I responded flatly to the man in the red bowler hat on the other side of my plexiglass ticket booth. He’d been complaining about a cancellation for at least twenty minutes. “Well Elle, I’d like to speak with your supervisor.” Great. My favourite line. I prepared my scripted response. “I’m the only staff member on duty at this time, if you have an issue you can log it with the phone number on the poster.” I tapped the glass next to the poster detailing how to contact Connected Railways head office. It was one I’d had to demand after one too many incidents with disgruntled passengers angry at delays, cancellations and prices. I didn’t control that shit, and I was sick of being abused for it. Red bowler hat inhaled sharply for a prolonged period. His face turned so red it reminded me I had some strawberries in my fridge at home that needed using before they went bad. As he took in more air, buttons on his shirt began to detach and ping in all different directions. I was suddenly more grateful than usual for the plexiglass as the little plastic pucks bounced off it. I sighed deeply and hit the red security button underneath my desk as I braced for myself for whatever onslaught was to come next. Then he blew up. Not blew up as in he ranted and screamed at me like a normal asshole customer in a service based industry. No. Red bowler hat man inhaled so much air he quite literally blew up, spattering blood across the floor of the station entrance, my ticket booth and any other passenger in a ten foot radius - Luckily there was only one, who hastily made their way to the platform. I looked on in despair as his hat rocked a little upon impact with the floor. I know I should sound more shocked, frightened even, when I talk about a man exploding before my very eyes. That would be a normal reaction; but incidents like that one were ten a penny at the station and had become more of an annoyance than a source of terror. In my line of work, a man exploding was relatively normal. Not terribly extraordinary, at least. “What a mess. Is everyone ok?” Atlas arrived, befuddled as he looked at the pile of scattered organs on the floor. Atlas was the night security guard, one of only two other members of staff in the entire station and my saviour, from both boredom and the unusual passengers. He had long, dark hair that he pulled into a messy bun on top of his head that always made his hat sit strangely. “I think so. Just need to call Nicky and get things cleaned up. Sorry for summoning you, I thought it was going to be much worse that that, the guy looked angry.” “Never a bother, Elle. You know that. Nicky’s going to love-“ Atlas was cut off by a loud and nauseating slurping noise as the organs and bits of person started to move together across the concrete floor as if they were suddenly magnetised. The blood on my booth congealed into droplets that danced down the screen and towards the collecting mass. The explosion hadn’t been entirely out of the ordinary, but this was beginning to pique my interest. “Good job you called.” Atlas continued, a curious expression on his face as the mass built to a height that towered above us both. Screaming, naked and covered in a transparent goo, red bowler hat man was reborn and much bigger and angrier than he had been before. He bent over, picked up the bloodied hat and placed it on his head before approaching the booth. I wasn’t sure on the purpose of the hat. After all, the rest of his clothes remained shredded on the floor. Regardless I found him quite intimidating and almost wavered through my next scripted response. “Sir, I’m going to have to ask you to leave Connected Railway’s property.” Red bowler foamed at the mouth, revealing a set of yellowed teeth and continued squealing into the open air. I cringed a little and tried to look away, watching the unsuspecting, oblivious people in the street behind him and envying their ignorance. They were only a few feet away and yet to them, the incident wasn’t happening at all. Oh how sweet it must have been to not see the booth, the blood or the naked man screaming in the night. That would’ve been a real treat. The station I work at is only visible to those who are already aware of its existence, or it would’ve been quite the scene, even at 2am. That’s what I’ve deducted in my time here anyway. I’d walked this street a thousand times before my interview and never once seen a station entrance. There was no other explanation. My employment, as a normal human that stumbled across the advert by pure dumb luck, was more unusual than anything I’d witnessed from red bowler hat man. I stayed firm, maintaining eye contact as I watched Atlas creep up behind the creature and hold up a pistol. A security guard with a gun wasn’t a typical sight in England, even in the city, but then nothing about my workplace was typical. He pulled the trigger releasing a sharp point and injecting a yellow liquid into the man’s neck. I watched as he dropped to the floor, shrinking into the disgruntled passenger he had been prior to the explosion, albeit stark naked. “Where was he headed Elle?” Atlas asked, grabbing hold of the now comatose creature and struggling with the dead weight as he tossed him over his shoulder, careful to avoid certain regions. “He was moaning about the cancellation on the village line. Cordyline Hill via Monsoon Valley. I tried explaining that there was one thirty minutes after but he didn’t let me...” “I’ll take him down to the platform now and page the guys at Monsoon Valley. Village line comes in at 2.22 and reaches MV by 2.46. He should stay like this until then. He’s their problem now.” “Finish.” I added just as he walked away. I sighed. I was grateful for Atlas but he could be tone deaf at times and was blind to the irony of cutting me off just like Karen in the red bowler hat had. I leaned back in my chair, kept one eye on the large antique clock on the wall to the left and prepared for the rest of the night to go by uneventfully. I know it seems strange, to be so positively apathetic. You have to understand how real desensitisation is, the more we consume the easier it gets and bowler hat wasn’t the first and definitely wouldn’t be the last monstrous transformation I’d see. I can’t explain the things that go on at the station entirely. I have my theories, but I have no way of confirming or denying them. The only hard facts I have are these; I have never heard of a single station we service, I’m absolutely certain that at least ninety percent of our passengers aren’t of the human variety, regardless of the risk I run of being eaten I’m still paid a pittance like every other booth worker in the country and on any given day I might have to drive home soaked in blood. So why do I stay? I stay for passengers like the one that followed red bowler hat. I’m not immune to curiosity. I recognise that I’m shafted by Connected Railway on a regular basis with only a poster and a charming but undeniably human security guard for protection. But that doesn’t change the fact that when you work with things that are out of this world every now and again you come across one that makes it somehow worth it. The woman in the floor length tweed coat was not your run of the mill, angry, potentially explosive customer. She was much more. She approached with a small dog in her arms, her coat sweeping across the hard ground where bits of organ had previously been strewn, walking with such dainty steps it was almost as if she were floating. She wore a scarf that matched the coat and had a face with more wrinkles than necessary to tell a story. I would’ve put her in her nineties at best, although she was perfectly mobile. “How can I help?” I asked, attempting to put on my best customer service face. “A single to Meander Place please, no return.” Meander place wasn’t a destination I was often asked for tickets to, it sat on the barely used Epstar line, which was mostly used by the more intimidating of passengers. I’d never taken any of the trains myself, despite my curiosity, but I tried to take note of the people I saw and where they were going. There was no other viable way to pass the time. “That’ll be £29.50 please” “I’m afraid I don’t have that, I spent the last of my money in that delightful pub across the street, we’re going to have to come up with another method of payment.” I held in a sigh. The station sat opposite an unusual, traditional looking old pub called the Pickled Gnome, which seemed to be a popular stop for my passengers before their journeys. I often questioned the type of patrons that it served, although I suppose I was in no real position to. “I’m sorry, we don’t offer payment plans or alternative methods here.” “You don’t understand, do you?” The woman made eye contact with me and I felt my head freeze into position, staring back at her. Her eyes were an incredible marbled yellow with flecks of green. Her next words make my skin crawl. “This is a transaction between you and I, not a faceless company you represent, Elfida.” My blood ran cold. No one, not my employer nor even the few people I considered friends knew my full name. I managed to break my trance like fixation on the woman to check my badge and just as suspected, it said Elle. “Who are you?” “Interesting. You don’t want to know how I know your name, you want to know who I am. You have a habit of asking all the wrong questions don’t you?” “What are you talking about?” “Hah! See, again. Another useless question. I suppose as I know your name it’s only fair you know mine.. Agnes Copper. Haven’t you ever wondered why you’re here?” She placed the small, scruffy looking dog on the floor and extended a frail, skeletal hand out towards the booth. Hand shaking I pressed the security button hard, eliciting a wry smile from Agnes. “That’s not going to work Elfida. I’m glad I have you attention though, if that weren’t the case you’d have noticed the clock you’ve been watching for the past few hours stop.” She was right, the clock had stopped. And I hadn’t noticed. I gulped. I’d dealt with some incredibly unusual passengers, but none of them had ever rendered my security button useless. Or known my full name. “What do you want?” The dog barked, making me jump. Agnes shushed him before continuing. “That’s a better question, dear! Although you already know the answer. I want a ticket to Meander Place, the question is... what do you want?” I took a moment to try and comprehend her question at all. She spoke with a glee that made me deeply uncomfortable. In the short term, I wanted Agnes Copper gone and to forget about her yellow eyes. I had a feeling that wasn’t what she was referring to, however. “Come on Elfida, there must be something.” “Please stop calling me that. My name is Elle.” I spoke with a quiet defiance. She smiled, enjoying my agitation. “Oh. Am I getting somewhere? Now why would a pretty girl like you hate a pretty name like that so much?” I felt a pang in my stomach. I hadn’t thought about my life with that name for a long time. Life before Irene disappeared. “It’s personal.” “I know dear. I think you’re aware I already know the answer.” Her eyes lit up and she licked her puckered, wrinkled lips as I shuddered at her words. “You’re wondering now if I know where she is aren’t you?” I was. She was right. Who wouldn’t wonder? When my little sister went missing there wasn’t a trace of her left in my parents home... my old home. She was only eight years old and one morning she just wasn’t in the house, they never found a stitch of evidence. That was enough to drive my parents to alcoholism, abuse and eventually divorce. I got it. They lost a kid but it sure did suck to be the sister left behind in the shit storm. Ten years old and I had to roll my mother over to stop her choking on her own vomit. I put up with eight years of that before I fled, came to university in the city, shortened my name and never went back home. Of course I wondered where she was. “Do you.. know where she is?” Agnes laughed an evil cackle, sinister enough to make every bone in my body vibrate. I felt weak, like all the wind had been knocked straight out of me. I tried to control it, but tears fell against my will. I hadn’t thought about Irene in so long. “Are you a gambler, Elfida?” Agnes asked, ignoring my question entirely. “I’ve never considered myself to be a betting woman.” I answered, voice shaking audibly. “Well I think it’s time you start. If you print me a single ticket to Meander Place I will give you a clue. What a wonderful thing? A little piece of hope. The clue could lead to that little girl you seek... or it might not. After years of no answers, isn’t it worth the risk? For the minimal cost of a £29.50 ticket.” “If the clue is useless, what are the consequences?” “A better question. Finally, you’ve got it! Shame we’re almost out of time, my train leaves in a few minutes and I’m not too quick on my feet. Make a decision Elfida, I think you know I’m getting on that train either way.” I hated arrogant customers. I made a point of ensuring I did my job properly, no matter what crazy things were going down in the station, but Agnes made a compelling case. She may have looked old and frail but she froze the air in the space around her. I wasn’t confident I’d even get close to stopping her board that train. How could I let the opportunity to find Irene slip away? I printed the ticket. Of course I did. One way to Meander Place, the Epstar line. Agnes continued to frantically lick her lips as the machine made the printing noise. Her mouth moved like a snake, it terrified me. As I handed it to her through the slot she reached into her pocket and pulled out a tiny red box, only large enough for small pieces of jewellery, replacing the paper slip with it. “Thank you Elfida. I hope you find what you’re looking for.” She winked a reptilian yellow eye and shuffled away from the booth towards the platform entrance. I sat there for a few minutes. Staring at the box, then back at the clock that continued ticking the moment Agnes was out of sight. I searched for her on the platform security cam that faced me inside the booth but she’d vanished. No trace. Just like Irene. I stroked the box, unsure I even wanted to know what was inside, while simultaneously desperate to see the contents. “Elle! Monsoon Valley just called, the guy had the same argument with them. Popped all over again, the guard there is having a total crisis. Thank fuck we’re rid of that shit, right?” Atlas interrupted my deep and brooding thought. I shoved the box into my pocket as quickly as I could and looked up, blinking away any residual tears from my interaction with Agnes. “Ha, sounds like a blast.” I joked, managing a chuckle from Atlas, “We’ll have to tell Nicky about it when she’s done with platform nine.” “Yeah, I’m gonna go ahead and check on her anyway, the Epstar line just blasted through there, never know what unsavoury characters might be about.” Atlas spoke seriously but I struggled to take him so. He always seemed impervious to the strangeness that surrounded us and my recent meeting had cut through my apathetic disposition. I was relieved when he wandered off, giving me a chance to breathe. After a few moments collecting myself I finally gathered the strength to reach into my pocket and open the red box. When I saw the contents I almost flung them and the box at the floor and ran. Inside was a finger, a small severed finger. The nail was painted pink, splotches on the skin around it, like it had been painted by a child. It had. I’d painted Irene’s nails that exact shade the night she went missing. But it didn’t make any sense, it had been years... and the finger was so fresh... even if she was alive, how could she still be so small? Fighting the bile in my throat I noticed a pattern... words, intricately carved and so minuscule they were a struggle to read. Find me in Thistle Park. The boys on bikes
[Wasserman] Timberwolves want to trade down, Warriors not sold on Edwards
According to a Western Conference executive, word around the league is Minnesota isn't leaning one way at No. 1, sounds "confused" and feels pressure after "messing up last year by trading for Jarrett Culver." The belief is that Minnesota's priority is to trade, realistically down the board assuming an established star won't become available. If the Wolves stick at No. 1, multiple sources say they'd bet on LaMelo Ball having the edge over Anthony Edwards. Teams are worried about Edwards' drive and enthusiasm for winning, and according to a source, the Golden State Warriors aren't a likely landing spot due to these concerns. Despite media projections and upside that everyone acknowledges, he has a shaky reputation within NBA circles. Scouts and executives have mentioned that his teams haven't won at any level, and that he even forgets plays and actions.
Why the NSAC stopped reporting payouts or a brief window into just how much influence the UFC/Zuffa/the Fertitta’s have in Nevada politics.
Up front, sorry for the very long post, I tried to be concise but there is a lot of information I had to try and whittle down. Late last night I found a post about Jessica Rose Clark only having $17 in her bank account. I went to the event’s wiki page to see what she was paid this past weekend. Weirdly, I found that the payouts weren’t listed, which they usually are on the wiki pages for Vegas events as Nevada and the NSAC have always disclosed show/win money. It turns out Nevada no longer discloses payouts. Because I’m a stubborn person I decided to see if I could find out why. I wrote a brief post about what I found in that thread, linked here, and someone mentioned that this should be it's own post. So I did a little more looking around and here is what I found: The change from disclosing to not disclosing payouts is a result of Nevada Senate Bill 29, which was passed in May of 2019 but has been in the works since at least 2017. The bill was sponsored by the Senate Committee on Judiciary. The committee's members are the following state senators: Nicole J. Cannizzaro – Chair, Dallas Harris- Vice Chair, James Ohrenschall, Marilyn Dondero Loop, Melanie Scheible, Scott Hammond, Ira Hansen, Keith F. Pickard. Source. The NSAC commissioner Staci Alonso spoke in favor of the bill in front of the committee in February of 2019. Source When I started looking into why these people would want to make this change, I thought about who benefits most from it. I decided to check for connections between any of the parties involved and the UFC/the Fertitta’s/WME. This is what I found. The chair of the committee that wrote and introduced the bill, Nicole J. Cannizzaro, at one point in time received a donation of $10,000 from Zuffa LLC, and $4500 from Station Casino LLC. Station Casino LLC is owned by the Fertitta brothers. Source, in the “Top Contributor category scroll down and click “see more contributors”. You’ll see Zuffa and Station Casino there. Repeat this process for later sources. Dallas Harris at some point received $2500 from Zuffa LLC. Source. Melanie Scheible also received $1000 from Zuffa LLC and $5000 from a Station Casino property at some point. Source, same process as last time. Ira Hansen recieved $2500 from Station Casino LLC at some point. Source. Committee member Keith Pickard recieved $5000 from Station Casino LLC and $1000 from Zuffa LLC at some point. Source. Committee member Marilyn Dondero Loop received $2500 from Station Casino LLC at some point. Source. Committee member Scott Hammond also received $1000 from Zuffa LLC DBA Ultimate Fighting Championship at some point. Source. He also received $5000 total from two Station Casino properties Source. There is more to Scott too. Scott was part of a situation where it was discovered that Nevada casino groups were paying substantially more than people were aware of to politicians by using different properties and businesses to skirt campaign finance laws. Scott apparently received $88,000 from these groups in 2017. Source. The companies involved aren’t named specifically in connection to Scott, but we know they are operating on behalf of Nevada casinos per the article. Again, the Fertitta’s own Station Casinos. We've seen with multiple state senators that they received money from more than one group owned by the Fertitta's. This creates an interesting situation because in the case of Scheible and Hammond some of their Station Casino money was trickier to find because it wasn't from the LLC, but rather an individual property under a different name. Are there more companies listed as corporate donors that we just don't know are owned by the Fertitta's? If so how much in total did each senator get? Now, these are all just corporate donation records. If Dana, the Fertitta’s, Ari, etc. donated as private citizens I can’t find it. This also doesn't include money donated to PACs operating on each politician's behalf. The NSAC commissioner who spoke on behalf of the bill to the committee, Staci Alonso, was at the time she was hired as NSAC commissioner an executive at Station Casinos. Source. What this all means is we don’t get disclosed payouts in Vegas anymore, which is bad for us and fighters. Fighters now lose the biggest event state disclosing this information which means they can’t use this information as leverage in their own contract negotiations. Now, to be clear there’s no direct proof that the UFC used its friends and their influence in Vegas to get this rule changed. Companies donate to politicians all the time. All we know for sure is there is money changing hands between friends and former majority owners of the UFC and these politicians and that this change benefits the UFC more than anyone else. I just thought all this was an interesting window in the world of Las Vegas politics, bureaucracy and MMA. TLDR: Zuffa/Station Casinos, owned by the Fertitta's, donated money to a bunch of politicians on a committee who then later was instrumental in making it so the NSAC no longer discloses payouts in Nevada.
Click here for my: Full Accuracy round-up. My kicker accuracy was #1 for week 3. Which is lucky if only because otherwise you'd have your pitchforks ready for having put Butker in the bottom half-- while most other sources had him near the top. Last year it was Tucker who scored low (4pts) in that week 3 Chiefs-Ravens game; this time it was the other celebrity kicker. Both times, my claim was that it's a risky bet. But luckily, you all dropped them for Bullock last week, right? Other notes:
Tough luck with Koo; injured and will miss time.
Gonzalez (#1) scored the bare minimum for me to be satisfied (blame going to 3 surprise interceptions).
Other sources had Myers too high and Bullock too low.
As always, these rankings will be updated through Sunday, so check back occasionally. Lines shift, forecasts change, and sometimes it makes a difference. (Bullock and Succop have moved down a bit (about half a point) due to weather) Chart updated Sunday morning Hoping to hold? Not generally recommended and the prime hold candidates fluctuate week-to-week (hence streaming) but for today the top 2 would be: Zuerlein and Lutz. Crosby would be a good grab, but he has a bye week to deal with, already next week. Short-term holds (3-4 weeks): Blankenship, Slye, Gonzalez. - My Patreon; Only if you're someone who gets the good feels from contributing. If it matters to you, proceeds considered to go directly to the new computer and software I needed to make this happen, in the offseason.
Last Thursday I wrote a post analyzing the Gaskin RBBC situation pre-game. I intended to write a post-game sooner but I got busy and so here we are now. So, let's get straight to it. On Thursday night we saw Gaskin truly separate himself from the pack. Attempts:
vs Jaguars
Attempts
Yards
Avg
TD
Myles Gaskin
22
66
3.0
0
Matt Breida
3
4
1.3
0
Jordan Howard
3
1
0.3
1
Other
8
67
N/A
1
Total
36
138
1.5
2
Receiving work:
vs Jaguars
Targets
Receptions
Yards
Avg
TD
Myles Gaskin
5
5
29
5.8
0
Matt Breida
0
0
0
0
0
J. Howard
0
0
0
0
0
Total
5
5
29
N/A
0
These numbers reaffirm something many of us already now know. Myles Gaskin has, until proven otherwise, secured the lead role in the Dolphins backfield and it isn't close. Looking back on the previous two weeks, this trend was becoming apparent and is now solidified. Let's look at another interesting statistic. Redzone Attempts:
Last 2 Weeks
Redzone Attempts
Goalline Attempt
Yards
TD
Percentage
Myles Gaskin
2
0
11
0
16.7%
J. Howard
5
5
1
2
41.7%
Matt Breida
3
0
9
0
25%
Other
2
0
N/A
0
16.7%
Total
12
5
21
2
100.1%
vs Jaguars
Redzone Attempts
Goalline Attempt
Yards
TD
Percentage
Myles Gaskin
9
0
18
0
69.2%
J. Howard
3
3
1
1
23.1%
Matt Breida
0
0
0
0
0%
Ryan Fitzmagic
1
0
1
1
7.7%
Total
13
3
20
2
100%
Looking at the data paints an interesting picture, many are under the impression that Jordan Howard will vulture away Gaskin TDs. While Howard certainly has vultured 3 TDS so far this season it is on a disgusting 8 attempts for 2 yards and 3 TDs line. Howard is almost exclusively used for goalline situations. Gaskin meanwhile has seen an encouraging uptick in RedZone usage, commanding an impressive 69% of touches against the Jaguars among rush attempts in the RZ. Gaskin is bound to get his, just don't hold your breath from 1-yd out. Another encouraging area for Gaskin is his receiving work, to reiterate:
vs Jaguars
Targets
Receptions
Yards
Avg
Myles Gaskin
5
5
29
5.8
Gaskin continues to catch his targets at an astoundingly efficient rate. Gaskin is 4th in receiving yards with 91, T-3 in targets with 16, and 1st in receptions with 15 for the Dolphins team. Additionally, Gaskin commands a healthy 16.7% target share for the Dolphins and runs a route on 67% of pass plays run. An interesting question to consider going forward is, how will OC Chan Gailey utilize Gaskin as the primary back as the season progresses? Looking back to Gailey's offenses to the Bills in 2010-2012 and the Jets 2015-2016 the running back position was utilized heavily in the passing game. For these statistics, I will combine and total the top two RBs each year during Gailey's tenure per team. RB utilization:
RBs under Gailey
Attempts
Yards
Targets
Receptions
Yards
Receiving TD/Rushing TD
Bills
895
4386
286
210
1759
8/24
Jets
666
2918
218
165
1256
6/18
Total
1561
7304
504
375
3015
14/42
As evidenced here, backs in Gailey's offense are expected to be reliable pass-catchers and are targeted heavily. This lends itself to Gaskin's skillset as a smaller pass-catching back. A very interesting bit of information I gathered looking through these statistics is that Ryan Fitzpatrick was the starting QB in every single one of these years under Gailey. So a continuation of previous trends can be reasonably expected. Last but not least, let's look into Gaskin's upcoming matchup with Seattle. As predicted last week, the Jaguars continued their efforts as a solid defensive front against the run. Allowing only 3.4 ypc on 29 attempts for 100 yards between the RBs. However, the Dolphins managed to get things done off of a couple of Minshew turnovers and an unimpressive pass defense. As suspected, Gaskin faced resistance on the ground but was able to make up for it through the air for PPR owners. Looking forward Gaskin faces an even tougher matchup on the ground against a formidable Seahawks run defense ranked 2nd in the league with 66.7 yards/game that only allowed 34 yards on 14 attempts for Elliot last week. However, we are once again looking to bet on Gaskin to produce through the air against a Seahawk's pass defense ranked dead last with 430 yards/game that allowed the Cowboys 472 yards through the air. The Seahawks also struggled to get to Dak through an ailing Cowboys' oline but managed to put a little pressure on Prescott. Receiving stats by RBs last 3 weeks:
vs
Targets
Receptions
Yards
Avg
TD
Falcons
10
7
11
1.6
0
Patriots
7
4
47
6.7
0
Cowboys
12
7
19
2.7
0
Total
29
18
77
N/A
0
Based on these statistics, the Seahawks allow a 62.1% completion rate to RBs. However, they do not seem to allow very much yardage after the fact. The Falcons failed to capitalize on their 7 receptions, Rex Burkhead for the Patriots managed to have a solid receiving day from a PPR standpoint, and finally, Elliot also appears to have failed to capitalize on his opportunities but achieved PPR worth due to his high number of receptions. I would like to point out that, after watching the entirety of the Cowboys' game, Elliot uncharacteristically dropped at least 3 easy passes from Dak that could've gone for solid gains and an additional 3 points. Taking everything into consideration, this will be Gaskin's toughest matchup to date. Gaskin faces an ever tougher and better coached run defense. But, following the trend, Gaskin has opportunities against a weak Hawk pass defense. Look for Gaskin to get checkdown work against a soft Hawk's secondary and hope for more receiving work while tempering your expectations on the ground. If the Dolphins fall behind quickly against the overwhelming Hawks' offense a positive game script can boost Gaskin's PPR work. On a side note, I expect the Dolphins receivers and possibly Gesicki to have a great week against a weak secondary, while the battered Hawks' stars safety Jamal Adams and CB Quinton Dunbar deal with injuries that may keep them out this week. Edit: Almost forgot, if the numbers don't speak to you, please listen to an endorsement from one of fantasyfootball's very own.
"Miami dolphin fan here and someone that watches Gaskin very closely, I also happen to work at SeaWorld... Miles is silky, SILKY, mahi-mahi, and a big BIG boy. Big ass boy. Swims hard as a man (SWIMS HARD), and the Fins are aware of this slick porpoise boy. They will feed him, feed him often, and hard, and he will squeak head off. Unbelievable." - u/rybono
Part 1, Part 2 Well, I'm back at it, since waiting for Resin is boring, so here's another guide, this time the oft-asked for Artifact Guide. While this guide will, like the previous one, be focused on Keqing at the forefront, I'll be going over the value of a few different stats as well, and talking about a couple different Set Bonuses, so it can be useful for more than just Keqing (such as your Supports, or if you have a second DPS Carry you wanna work on for some ungodly reason -- like the Spiral Abyss) Before getting too far into this, I heavily recommend at least taking a gander over at Part 2, because I'll be building on some core concepts introduced there. Part 1, which was all about the weapon, is also a bit foundational to this, but will be made somewhat obsolete as Part 3 is essentially the Advanced Course, as I'll be explaining the importance of actual stats in this one.
The Basics: Glossary
I'm not going to go to the absolute basics, like explaining what artifacts are, but I want to make sure you understand what Stats I'm talking about, as well as some basic information about how artifact stats work. So, let's start off with a list of stats. DMG: This is your bread and butter, and the most important "stat" in the game. While technically not an actual Stat, it's an important variable, and, well, Damage is what you do to make your enemies dead. DMG has a long and complex formula, but we can simplify it down to [(ATK x Talent %) x (1+CRIT DMG) x (1+DMG%) x (1-Enemy DMG Resist)]. Because artifacts don't modify Enemy DMG Resist, we'll ignore that one for DMG calculations while working with Artifacts. Don't worry, I'll be explaining all the other stats mentioned. Elemental Combination Damage: Technically, this is actually just DMG, but it actually uses an entirely different formula, which we don't have the specifics of yet, and each Elemental Combination uses a slightly different formula, but I can still present the basic idea of the formula for the ones we care about here (everything but Melt and Vaporize). One thing to note is that the triggering character is the only one that matters; more on this later. The formula: [(Combination Base Value) x (Level) x (Elemental Mastery Modifier) x (1 + Buff %)] ATK: ATK is the base number used to calculate how much damage your Talents do. ATK's formula is a bit complicated as well, but the key thing to note is that ATK% bonuses only effect your Weapon and Character ATK number. This means that when an artifact gives you a +ATK Number, it is applied after ATK% is applied, meaning that at lower levels, +ATK is more valuable than at the highest levels, but ATK% also gets outclassed by other stats. Talent %: Everything your character does except running and jumping is a Talent. Normal and Charged Attacks, Elemental Skills, and Elemental Burst are all Talents, and each different Talent has a deals a different amount of your ATK as a % towards damage. Your Normal and Charged Attacks usually do less than 100%, and your Elemental Skills and Elemental Bursts usual do more, or do lots of small ones. CRIT DMG: Every Talent has a chance of scoring a "critical hit" that deals extra damage, and the amount of extra damage is governed by this stat. Keqing naturally has a very high CRIT DMG (higher than other characters), so we like to build around this. Since CRIT DMG is multiplied after ATK is multiplied, CRIT DMG scales better than ATK% does. CRIT Rate: CRIT Rate doesn't show up directly in the formula, but it affects your CRIT DMG. You either deal CRIT DMG or you don't, so for calculating DPS, we use your CRIT Rate x CRIT DMG, instead of just CRIT DMG in the formula. Due to scaling, CRIT Rate ends up being worth more than ATK% at later levels (more on this later) DMG%: This is my favorite stat, and it is a very powerful stat. Similar to CRIT DMG, this multiplies after ATK is calculated, so 1% DMG = 1% DMG, unlike ATK%, which isn't solid. There are multiple sources of this, and they're mostly situational or tied to specific elements, such as Electro DMG% -- Because Keqing does Electro DMG most of the time, Electro DMG% essentially becomes just DMG% for her, and you'll want to avoid Physical DMG%. Enemy DMG Resist: All enemies have an inherent elemental resistance, and for most of them, it's 10%. Artifacts can't do anything about this directly (Viridescent Venerer is an exception, but it requires doing something special), so we really aren't going to worry about this too much. Combination Base Value: Every Elemental combination has some secret magical number it uses to determine how much damage you do. We don't know this number, but I can tell you which ones do the most damage from our Electro list: Overloaded > Electro-charged > Superconduct. A note about Electro-charged, however, is that it does its damage twice if you don't reapply Electro-charged within roughly 1 second, so it technically can do more damage than Overloaded. More on this later. Level: This one is self explanatory -- the level of the character that procs the Elemental Combination Elemental Mastery Modifier: Elemental Mastery is a fancy stat that directly increases the amount of damage you do with Elemental Combinations. How much it does that by is calculated by a fancy formula that I'm not really going to explain, since you can just check in-game for the amount of bonus damage you're doing (it's under "Details" on the first section of the Character Screen, where you level up your character). Electro-charged, Superconduct, and Overloaded all get the same Modifier for the same amount of Elemental Mastery. Buff %: This is stupidly rare. Like, there are only 4 ways to get it stupidly rare. Basically, it just adds a percentage of damage to your Elemental Combinations, and it seems to work the same way that DMG% does, but for Elemental Combinations. Energy Recharge: Not part of any damage formulas, but important to know. Every time you make make a Normal Attack or Charged Attack, you get Energy. Every time an Elemental Sparkly Thing is generated and you pick it up, you get Energy. This increases both of those sources by the listed percentage, meaning you can use your Elemental Burst roughly this percentage more often, which means this indirectly contributes to your DPS. There's also HP, HP%, DEF, and DEF%, but those stats aren't really important to doing damage, and doing damage is the most important part of building DPS Carry, so you typically don't to build for these. If they happen to be on an artifact you need, don't worry about it too much, though, as they do help.
The Basics: Your Five Slots
Alright, we have the Glossary out of the way, and with that, you actually should have the majority of the information you really need to know to start building your character. The rest of this guide will explain how to put all of those things together, how to optimize those for Keqing specifically, and some other basic things, but first, let's talk about the five different artifact slots you have. Every artifact has Main Stat that increases every time you level it up, and alongside that it has substats that typically remain relatively static. What Main Stat is available to an Artifact, however, is tied directly to which Slot it is in. Flowers and Feathers always have a given Main Stat of HP and ATK, respectively, and as such, you'll be looking at their substats a lot more than their main stat. As a side note, Feathers are the most important artifact for a DPS carry to rank because they give Flat ATK (Feather Flat ATK is actually necessary, while other Flat ATK is not, since Feather Flat ATK is much higher). The other three Artifacts have a variety of different Main Stat options. I'm not going to go over which piece has what here, but I will comment that due to how the stats are distributed, you can't get both CRIT DMG and CRIT Rate as main stats, but you can get Electro DMG% and CRIT Rate or CRIT DMG as main stats, and that's a great combination. All of them can get ATK%, which is nice, and all of them can get Elemental Mastery which is also really good, so keep that in mind as well.
Brooching the Subject of Stats
If you're still here after that terrible pun, good for you. Anyway, if you haven't put it together from the glossary section which stats are the most valuable, this section is going to go over that and explain why those stats are valuable. The tl;dr version for Keqing is Electro DMG% > CRIT Rate > CRIT DMG = Elemental Mastery > ATK% = Recharge Rate> Flat ATK > HP/DEF Electro DMG% is so absolutely amazing on Keqing because, as I have mentioned earlier in this post, at least once in Part 2, and probably once or twice in Part 1, Keqing is pretty much always doing Electro DMG, so Electro DMG% is just DMG%, and DMG% is worth multiplied after all other damage calculations (including Critical DMG), so its addition to your DMG is very high. The only time Electro DMG% wouldn't be on your build is if you're running a Superconduct build and you're planning on taking advantage of that Physical Resist Down. If you are, then skip on Electro DMG%, and make CRIT Rate your top priority (avoid Physical DMG% though, it doesn't help your Skill or Burst). CRIT Rate is good on everyone, but the reason Keqing wants it so bad is because she has an inherently higher CRIT DMG than other characters do, meaning that even without CRIT gear, she easily gets to 70%+ CRIT DMG, so every point of CRIT Rate is increases her DPS more than it does other characters. Furthermore, as long as you have at least 77% CRIT DMG (again, this can be extremely easily achieved on her; I have 86% right now, and none of my pieces of gear have CRIT DMG as a primary stat), every 1% Crit Rate is worth more towards your overall DPS than 1% of ATK%. CRIT DMG is already high as hell on Keqing, so why not boost it more? Is it because you're scared of big numbers? Seriously, boost it, it's fun. Elemental Mastery is hard to judge in how much you should prioritize it, because it depends heavily on your team comp as well as how much you can pump into it. At low Elemental Mastery, it's not super great, but once you get past 50 EM, it gets really good, especially on Overload and Electro-charge. I consider this equal to CRIT DMG because CRITs don't effect explosions. ATK% is always nice, because ATK is the core of your damage, but you get most of your ATK from the fact that your Weapon exists, the level Keqing is, and the Plume of Death, so each point of ATK% doesn't do a whole lot in the long run. At least it's not flat ATK. An important note: 2% ATK > 1% CRIT Rate unless your CRIT DMG is 160% or higher Recharge Rate is rated kina low on Keqing because a good team comp (see Part 2: Building your Harem) will give Keqing plenty of energy on its own, but it's still a nice stat to have because Bursts are good. Other characters will rate Recharge Rate at a different level, based on the energy needed to gain their skill and how much energy you can feed them. Flat ATK technically is good if the Flat ATK numbers are a decent size compared to the numbers you get for existing, but the flat ATK numbers you get from substats (which is the only way to get them outside of the Plume of Death) are so small that by level 60, they're barely worth anything, and by level 90, they aren't worth anything. HP and DEF don't contribute to DMG, and the better way to manage your HP bar is to just not get hit. Obviously, this is easier said than done, but still worth saying. Also, since one of your artifacts always gives you HP, and the amount of HP is actually pretty high, that artifact is enough on its own to cover your HP needs.
High Fashion
Just as the world of fashion discourages picking a random assortment of accessories, so does the world of Teyvat, though for a slightly different reason. All artifacts are part of a set, and when you've got 2 artifacts of of the same set, you get a very hefty, very noticeable, bonus to one of your stats. If you've got a whopping 4 artifacts of the same set (remember, you can only use 5 at a time), then you get that initial bonus and some cool extra bonus. Every 4-set bonus is unique, and most of them do something that can't be achieved without using a 4-set. That being said, running artifacts so that you have two different 2-sets is actually completely viable, and sometimes even better than running a 4-set. So, let's talk about Set Bonuses. Since all of the sets give you a stat bonus for the 2-set, it's a good idea to look at what the stat bonuses are for any given set. Rather than going through every artifact set and telling you what stats it gives and why to use them, I'm going to let you do that for yourself, since it's a good learning experience, and since the golden rule still applies: What you have is better than what you don't have (of course, the artifact guide is largely to help people know what stuff to get, unlike the previous two, so it's slightly less applicable here). Alright, have you acquainted yourself with the 2-set properties (or are waiting for me to give you the answers anyway because you know I'll do that eventually)? Good, let's move on. As you can see, a number of sets give +18 ATK% for having 2 of them, a few give HP, a few give DEF, one of them gives +12 CRIT Rate, and so on. There's a decent number of options, but remember the stat priorities from before, because they apply here as well, with only one notable exception: Elemental Mastery from the set bonuses is weirdly high, and might be worth it if you want to get the most Zap from your Splash (ie, you're running a Electro-charged build) -- this is one of the first major "it's your preference" sections on this guide, because this is one of those times where numbers are a bit weird. Alright, moving on to 4-set bonuses. As I've mentioned before, 4-set bonuses are strong, but you don't have to go for them. Sometimes, it's better to run two 2-sets because of the bonuses they give, but still take a look at see if you like any of the 4-set bonuses. If you do, build for that set. At the end of the day, just make sure you have either one 4-set bonus, or two 2-set bonuses on Keqing.
Keqing's Fall Catalogue
Alright, here's the part I know many of you have been waiting for (not to sound arrogant, y'all have literally been asking me this a bunch): my recommendations for artifact sets on Keqing. I'll list a few options and why they're good as well as why they're bad. All of them are viable according to the math, and all of them should be at least somewhat fun. I'll even include some early-game sets to help you until you've managed to grind out the ones you want to focus on. For the early-game, only upgrade as many artifacts as you need to upgrade to get the Adventurer Journal goals. The Queen's Jewels (best end-game)
2-Set Thundering Fury with 2-Set ATK%: This set is actually the optimal damage set for pure numbers on Keqing, and the nice thing about it is that there are three different sets that you can 2-set for that 18% ATK increase. Now, to clarify, this set technically does 3% less damage than the Gladiator's Finale 4-set on specifically the Normal Attack combo, but it does more damage on everything else (including Charged Attacks) as long as you have your weapon infused with Electro from your passive, which not only evens out the damage, but makes it a noticeable difference. I bet some of y'all are surprised. Oh, and an added bonus is that this combo only takes 20 Resin per attempt, unlike the Gladiator's Finale which tells you to fuck off because it hates you. You don't even have to go to different Domains for this either, since an 18% ATK set drops in the same Domain, which also means you get more chances at getting a piece you want. Basically, best DMG, most user friendly (as long as you can deal that Domain; maybe try Co-Op because your DPS Carry is not good in that Domain)
4-set Gladiator's Finale: Alright, this is the one many of you expected to see on this list, and with good reason. It'd does great DMG for everything, with 3% more damage on your Normal Attack combo, so it's a pretty dang good set still, much like literally every other guide out there says is best for Keqing since they all copygenshin.gg. If you've already farmed all 4 pieces of this set (how), then congrats, you've got a great set, and I'd say stick with it. If you have 2 or less of this set, try for the Thundering Fury 2-set instead, it'll take less Resin. This is the most optimal set if you're running Superconduct, and if you're running this set already, consider switching to Superconduct to make the most use of it.
4-set Thundering Fury: After the first two, subsequent sets are a little more iffy in their ranking and how good they are. 4-set Thundering Fury does noticeably less damage than the 2-set version does, but in exchange you get a whopping 40% more damage on your Elemental Combos (this is worth about 80 Elemental Mastery btw), and you also get the added benefit of every time you proc an Electro Elemental Combo (.8s cooldown), your Elemental Skill comes back sooner. Even if you only proc 2 Combos in the first 5 seconds, this means that your Elemental Skill will be back up before you start dealing Physical Damage again. On a Elctro-charged or Overloaded team, this set is insane, at least on paper. I personally plan on running this set once I get the drops, though #1 is still probably slightly more optimal.
Rising Nobility (Early-mid game sets)
4-Set Berserker: You'll start getting these pretty early, and they'll carry you for quite a while. This is the first real set to pay attention to while levelling, since the very early most sets are really quite meh. To really make use of this set, though, you'll want to make sure your health is always below 70%, otherwise you lose a lot of value from this set, and you'll want to run one of the other two below.
4-set Martial Artist: I've been running this baby for a while, and while the DMG numbers aren't fantastic compared to the top-tier sets, you can get a full 4-piece of the Martial Artist set just by doing your Adventurer's Journal pre-20 or so, and it'll carry you until you can get one of the better ones. This set will excel if you like to run Superconduct, and since Kaeya is pretty nice to have for exploration (swimming is hard with less than 240 stamina), you can make use of both of those benefits. With this set, you want to make sure you're using your Elemental Skill as often as it comes up, so you can get the 4-set's buff (which will have 100% uptime for you this way)
2-set Martial Artist with 2-set Berserker: A more forgiving Berserker set, with a nice DMG boost to your Normal and Charged attack. You don't have to keep your health low, and its more forgiving if you forget/can't use your Elemental Skill frequently. At a certain point, this will actually exceed either of the other two sets in raw numbers as well, though that's at a pretty high level, when you'll start working towards Endgame sets.
The Royal Gallery (Honorable Mentions)
4-set Berserker: I know this is in the Early-mid game sets, but it actually gets pretty good in late game, with the same caveat of needing to keep your health below 70%. It's still not as good as the top three though.
4-Set Resolution of Sojourner: This could maybe be in the Early-mid set, but it's not quite where I'd like it to be at, since in many ways, it functions as a discount Martial Artist set for Keqing.
Mondstadt's Discount Jewels
Your Support needs artifacts too, so this section is to help out with them a bit. The artifacts and stats for your Support aren't nearly as important as the ones for your DPS Carry, so this will be a brief section with just some general advice. First and foremost: spend your resources on Keqing first. Focus her before you focus others, until you've got resources to spare (lol), or you're hitting a wall and feel you need your Supports beefed up a bit. Alright, now for the stats: ATK, CRIT, and general DMG are much less important on your supports than on Keqing, because they're not here to do damage, they're here to make fire/wateice for you to explode with Keqing's lightning, or to be a Battery. They don't need good numbers for that. So, what you want to focus on with your Supports stat-wise will be more supporting stats, ie, Elemental Mastery, Energy Recharge, and things that increase your Healer's Healing (HP for Barbara, as an example, or ATK on QiQi). How important Elemental Mastery is on any given Support depends on how your procs are happening. If your Support shows up briefly, gives everyone an element, then disappears to let you proc that element, they don't need any Elemental Mastery. If, however, your support creates an Aura, Field, or Pet that repeatedly reapplies an Element, then suddenly their need for Elemental Mastery starts to go up, but the need for it also starts to get tricky. Auras like Barbara's Song, Kaeya's icicles, or Xinqiu's swords work either on server ticks or some hidden timer to apply their proc, which can mean you're in middle of a combo when they apply, so the enemy already has an Electro on them, and the Support is the one who proc'd the Combo, not you. Pets, on the other hand, are slow and easily predictable based on their animations, so you can focus other targets until enemies are tagged by the pet, and you can then combo that proc, so your Elemental mastery is more important. In short, learn your team and how your procs work, then judge Elemental Mastery needs on that A note: Combination Procs don't care who's on the field when it happens, only who gave the target the Second element. The first element doesn't matter for the math. That's why Barbara can proc Electro-charged even while she's not on the field, for example, and why it's good to give her Elemental Mastery (Xinqiu is also a good candidate for high EM, because his Sword Rain hits after your attacks). Energy Recharge is much more important on your Supports because they aren't getting nearly as much energy as you are, since High Voltage only helps Electros, and your Battery is also only helping the two Electros. Your Battery doesn't need Energy Recharge as badly, but it can be helpful on people like Fischl who have high Energy costs and get a lot of benefit from more frequent casts. Finally, if you have a healer, give them the stat that helps them heal the most. This will require reading their Talents. Barbara scales off of her Max HP, and Qiqi scales off of ATK, to help out with the two most popular healers. Parting words: Good luck out there, and have fun! This isn't necessarily the end of this series, but this is all I had specifically planned. If y'all have ideas for another guide you want me to write, let me know, and I'll see what I can do.
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