Michigan State vs Indiana Betting Line, Point Spread ...

Rankings: Every D1 Team vs. Spread Since 2011 (Cumulative) - UVA, MSU, Nova on top

Since 2011 (as far back as I have data), how has each team done vs. the spread?
Specifically, if you bet $110 on every single game to beat the spread (which wins you $100 profit) since 2011, where would you be today? The chart below shows.
Interestingly, a lot of the best teams of the era were also the best vs. the spread. Coincidence? I'm not sure, honestly. Someone has to be best vs. the spread, and assuming it's a bell curve (and it is) someone will be 2+ standard deviations ahead. But there's no a priori reason it should be UVA and MSU instead of e.g. Washington State or St. Peter's.
(To pre-answer a question, sometimes you can win more money with fewer net wins vs. the spread because losses hurt you more than wins benefit you, and not every game gets a spread.)
Additional data / year-by-year cuts
Team Money Won Lines Set **Net Wins vs. Spread % Games Won & Beat Spread Points Above Spread
1 Virginia Cavaliers $4430 275 55 55.27% 559
2 Michigan State Spartans $3940 290 51 54.14% 440
3 Villanova Wildcats $3610 290 48 54.48% 329
4 South Dakota State Jackrabbits $3550 259 46 53.28% 593.5
5 Utah Utes $3200 272 43 44.49% 310.5
6 Wichita State Shockers $2340 276 35 52.54% 273
7 Tulsa Golden Hurricane $2290 264 34 45.08% 131
8 Yale Bulldogs $2070 201 29 47.26% 109.5
9 Gonzaga Bulldogs $1570 281 28 52.67% 525
10 Creighton Blue Jays $1480 277 27 50.54% 312
11 Buffalo Bulls $1420 270 26 46.67% 447.5
12 Saint Josephs-Pennsylvania Hawks $1410 206 23 46.12% 131.5
13 Houston Cougars $1410 250 25 47.2% 381.5
14 Davidson College Wildcats $1370 274 26 49.27% 134.5
15 Robert Morris Colonials $1350 109 18 44.04% -62.5
16 North Florida Ospreys $1350 108 18 38.89% 48.5
17 Northwestern State Demons $1330 74 16 29.73% 4
18 North Carolina Tar Heels $1290 296 26 50% 289.5
19 Georgia Bulldogs $1280 272 25 39.71% 203.5
20 Texas-Arlington Mavericks $1260 239 23 43.1% 231
21 Hartford Hawks $1250 87 16 42.53% 105.5
22 Oregon Ducks $1240 285 25 49.82% 315
23 Seton Hall Pirates $1170 275 24 43.64% 140
24 IUPU-Fort Wayne Mastadons $1130 242 22 40.5% 213
25 New Mexico State Aggies $1070 190 19 48.95% 352.5
26 Southeastern Louisiana Lions $1070 80 14 32.5% 102
27 California-Irvine Anteaters $1060 281 23 45.2% 185
28 William & Mary $1060 212 20 41.98% 47
29 Furman Paladins $1030 236 21 42.8% 187
30 Wisconsin-Green Bay Phoenix $1030 262 22 41.98% 87.5
31 Kansas Jayhawks $990 290 23 52.41% 66.5
32 Purdue Boilermakers $980 274 22 45.99% 299
33 Vermont Catamounts $940 112 14 48.21% 119
34 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets $920 264 21 35.98% -21
35 San Diego State Aztecs $910 271 21 49.08% 140
36 Wofford Terriers $870 253 20 43.08% 298.5
37 Saint Francis-Pennsylvania Red Flash $840 85 12 42.35% -89.5
38 Mississippi Rebels $820 281 21 40.57% -18
39 Florida International Panthers $770 232 18 34.91% 99.5
40 Nevada Wolf Pack $760 277 20 45.13% 138
41 Colgate Red Raiders $750 104 12 42.31% 146.5
42 Louisville Cardinals $740 282 20 47.16% 383
43 Providence Friars $740 279 20 44.44% 332.5
44 North Carolina Central Eagles $740 108 12 40.74% 166
45 Gardner Webb Runnin Bulldogs $730 106 12 42.45% 106.5
46 Norfolk State Spartans $720 110 12 35.45% 69
47 Tennessee State Tigers $660 233 17 33.48% 25.5
48 North Carolina State Wolfpack $650 275 19 43.64% 114.5
49 Fresno State Bulldogs $620 259 18 38.61% 295.5
50 Maryland Terrapins $610 268 18 44.03% 84
51 Saint Bonaventure Bonnies $600 265 18 46.04% 287
52 California Baptist $590 51 8 45.1% 51.5
53 Northern Illinois Huskies $540 258 17 32.17% -17
54 Southern University A&M Jaguars $540 105 10 34.29% 13.5
55 Army Black Knights $520 107 10 42.06% -37.5
56 South Dakota Coyotes $480 246 16 38.62% 139
57 Merrimack Warriors $480 30 6 56.67% -8
58 California-Santa Barbara Gauchos $480 247 16 41.7% 66.5
59 Iowa State Cyclones $470 269 17 44.98% 403.5
60 Prairie View A&M $470 97 9 36.08% 140.5
61 Manhattan Jaspers $460 270 17 41.11% 76.5
62 Hofstra Pride $440 256 16 40.23% 4.5
63 East Tennessee State Buccaneers $420 193 13 45.08% 125
64 Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks $420 236 15 30.08% 193
65 Lipscomb Bison $410 108 9 37.04% 84.5
66 Louisiana Tech Bulldogs $380 244 15 45.9% 80
67 Georgia Southern Eagles $370 248 15 38.71% 248
68 No.Carolina A&T $340 59 6 35.59% 90.5
69 Murray State Racers $340 252 15 46.43% 228.5
70 Fairleigh Dickinson-Metropolitan Knights $320 83 7 36.14% 197
71 Seattle University Red Hawks $310 129 9 37.21% 107
72 Iowa Hawkeyes $280 268 15 45.9% 129
73 Florida A&M $270 93 7 33.33% 64
74 Sam Houston State Bearkats $270 95 7 41.05% 34.5
75 Texas Rio Grande Vaqueros $250 80 6 32.5% 92
76 North Alabama $240 57 5 28.07% 25.5
77 Winthrop Eagles $230 102 7 38.24% -52.5
78 Arkansas-Little Rock Trojans $230 251 14 39.04% 9.5
79 San Francisco Dons $210 258 14 39.92% 143
80 Campbell Fighting Camels $200 86 6 37.21% -18.5
81 California State-Bakersfield Roadrunners $180 70 5 31.43% 48.5
82 Stetson Hatters $170 93 6 23.66% -21.5
83 Michigan Wolverines $160 287 15 48.78% 318.5
84 Utah Valley Wolverines $40 100 5 35% 22
85 Arizona Wildcats $30 294 14 50.34% 246
86 Indiana Hoosiers $10 276 13 45.65% 213.5
87 Dayton Flyers $0 277 13 47.29% 212.5
88 Valparaiso Crusaders $-40 267 12 44.94% 34.5
89 Central Florida Knights $-40 244 11 38.93% -70
90 Northern Kentucky Norse $-80 164 7 42.68% 139
91 Delaware Blue Hens $-80 254 11 37.01% -55.5
92 Jackson State Tigers $-100 86 3 26.74% -17
93 Montana Grizzlies $-100 263 11 44.11% 185.5
94 Long Island Brooklyn Blackbirds $-110 107 4 40.19% 104
95 Tennessee Volunteers $-110 282 12 42.2% 305
96 Bowling Green State Falcons $-120 261 11 38.7% -14
97 South Carolina-Upstate Spartans $-150 94 3 28.72% -66
98 Harvard Crimson $-170 227 9 42.73% 112
99 Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin Cajuns $-170 247 10 43.72% 14.5
100 Stony Brook Seawolves $-200 108 3 40.74% -21.5
101 New Hampshire Wildcats $-260 75 1 24% -67.5
102 Hampton University Pirates $-260 96 2 39.58% 175.5
103 Kansas State Wildcats $-280 270 10 42.59% 131
104 Duke Blue Devils $-280 292 11 50.68% 87
105 American Eagles $-290 102 2 39.22% 83.5
106 Princeton Tigers $-310 212 7 43.87% 43
107 Abilene Christian Wildcats $-310 62 0 40.32% 41
108 Missouri-Kansas City Kangaroos $-320 150 4 34.67% -5.5
109 Evansville Aces $-320 259 9 34.75% 50
110 Portland State Vikings $-360 246 8 36.59% -1
111 Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders $-400 276 9 42.75% 288
112 New Mexico Lobos $-400 274 9 45.99% -17
113 Florida State Seminoles $-400 276 9 46.38% 143.5
114 Coppin State Eagles $-410 105 1 21.9% -43
115 Western Kentucky Hilltoppers $-420 277 9 41.52% -7.5
116 South Carolina State Bulldogs $-430 88 0 20.45% 8
117 New Orleans Privateers $-440 69 -1 31.88% -18.5
118 Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils $-450 92 0 14.13% -111
119 Maryland-Baltimore County Retrievers $-450 92 0 35.87% -3.5
120 Samford Bulldogs $-460 244 7 31.15% 107
121 Oklahoma Sooners $-470 269 8 42.01% 178
122 Loyola-Chicago Ramblers $-470 265 8 38.49% 123.5
123 Radford Highlanders $-480 98 0 39.8% 78
124 Maine Black Bears $-500 80 -1 13.75% -41
125 Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles $-510 253 7 35.18% 92.5
126 Southern Methodist Mustangs $-520 260 7 43.08% 13.5
127 Eastern Washington Eagles $-530 258 7 40.31% 142.5
128 Baylor Bears $-540 261 7 45.59% 216.5
129 Florida Gulf Coast Eagles $-550 112 0 38.39% 60.5
130 Illinois-Chicago Flames $-580 267 7 31.84% -96.5
131 Towson Tigers $-580 246 6 36.59% 38
132 Albany Great Danes $-580 97 -1 31.96% 67
133 Saint Francis-New York Terriers $-590 55 -3 32.73% -93.5
134 Nicholls State Colonels $-590 77 -2 31.17% -99.5
135 Grambling State Tigers $-590 58 -3 32.76% 36
136 Memphis Tigers $-600 274 7 44.53% 135
137 North Carolina-Asheville Bulldogs $-610 101 -1 28.71% -69
138 Butler Bulldogs $-620 278 7 46.04% 55.5
139 Canisius Golden Griffins $-640 263 6 38.4% -108
140 Longwood Lancers $-640 87 -2 31.03% 85.5
141 Air Force Falcons $-650 240 5 30.83% -98
142 Virginia Tech Hokies $-650 260 6 36.92% 101
143 Akron Zips $-660 262 6 42.37% 86.5
144 Hawaii Rainbow Warriors $-680 247 5 42.11% 49
145 McNeese State Cowboys $-690 76 -3 30.26% -49
146 South Alabama Jaguars $-710 253 5 36.36% -91
147 Incarnate Word Cardinals $-710 58 -4 17.24% -50.5
148 Eastern Michigan Eagles $-720 251 5 39.44% 115.5
149 Mississippi State Bulldogs $-730 257 5 36.96% -66.5
150 Charleston Southern Buccaneers $-750 89 -3 32.58% 48.5
151 Mercer Bears $-750 195 2 36.92% -94.5
152 Mount Saint Marys Mountaineers $-770 70 -4 37.14% 9
153 Wyoming Cowboys $-770 265 5 35.85% -55.5
154 Auburn Tigers $-780 265 5 40% 4.5
155 Lafayette College Leopards $-790 98 -3 33.67% -151.5
156 Coastal Carolina Chanticleers $-790 139 -1 40.29% -25
157 Pennsylvania Quakers $-800 227 3 37% -27
158 Alabama A&M $-840 86 -4 19.77% -113
159 Saint Marys College-California Gaels $-850 237 3 47.68% 17
160 Jacksonville State Gamecocks $-860 239 3 31.8% 28
161 Belmont Bruins $-880 243 3 46.09% 95
162 Central Arkansas Bears $-890 74 -5 24.32% -103
163 New Jersey Tech Highlanders $-900 77 -5 28.57% 4.5
164 Saint Louis Billikens $-910 269 4 40.52% -86.5
165 Binghamton Bearcats $-910 81 -5 22.22% -17.5
166 Bethune Cookman Wildcats $-920 81 -5 33.33% -23
167 Clemson Tigers $-940 256 3 39.84% 34
168 Houston Baptist Huskies $-950 86 -5 18.6% -22
169 Nebraska-Omaha Mavericks $-960 216 1 35.65% 59.5
170 Presbyterian Blue Hose $-960 88 -5 25% -54.5
171 Pepperdine Waves $-970 263 3 31.18% -30
172 Maryland-Eastern Shore Hawks $-990 95 -5 14.74% -185.5
173 Oregon State Beavers $-990 267 3 36.7% -52.5
174 Bucknell Bison $-1020 121 -4 39.67% 107.5
175 Texas-El Paso Miners $-1030 252 2 37.7% -71
176 North Texas Mean Green Eagles $-1040 236 1 33.05% -187.5
177 Lamar Cardinals $-1050 85 -6 35.29% 21.5
178 Navy Midshipmen $-1050 107 -5 30.84% -20.5
179 Pacific Tigers $-1060 260 2 32.69% -109
180 California-Davis Aggies $-1060 259 2 35.91% 22
181 Xavier Musketeers $-1090 287 3 45.99% 57.5
182 Utah State Aggies $-1090 264 2 43.94% 151
183 Lehigh Mountain Hawks $-1100 116 -5 37.93% 55
184 Missouri Tigers $-1100 273 2 36.26% 31.5
185 Northern Colorado Bears $-1120 250 1 36.4% -134.5
186 Temple Owls $-1130 275 2 41.82% -66
187 Savannah State Tigers $-1140 63 -8 25.4% -219.5
188 Saint Peters Peacocks $-1150 213 -1 34.27% -45
189 Sacred Heart Pioneers $-1160 86 -7 33.72% -144
190 Toledo Rockets $-1180 260 1 42.69% 168
191 Wisconsin Badgers $-1190 286 2 46.85% 53.5
192 Grand Canyon Antelope $-1190 93 -7 34.41% 8
193 Loyola-Marymount Lions $-1210 140 -5 37.14% -100.5
194 Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions $-1230 99 -7 21.21% -1.5
195 Virginia Commonwealth Rams $-1250 278 1 46.04% 111.5
196 West Virginia Mountaineers $-1260 280 1 43.21% 38
197 Brown Bears $-1260 197 -3 30.46% 69
198 San Diego Toreros $-1260 258 0 31.78% 104.5
199 Texas A&M CC $-1260 85 -8 24.71% 21
200 Drake Bulldogs $-1270 264 0 36.36% 79.5
201 Penn State Nittany Lions $-1300 268 0 35.45% 38.5
202 Northern Iowa Panthers $-1310 271 0 45.02% -32.5
203 Massachusetts-Lowell River Hawks $-1310 75 -9 33.33% -29.5
204 Wright State Raiders $-1320 269 0 42.75% 108
205 Georgia State Panthers $-1320 266 0 45.11% 130
206 Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles $-1330 232 -2 32.76% -228.5
207 Massachusetts Minutemen $-1340 273 0 37.36% -130.5
208 Morgan State Bears $-1340 100 -8 29% -57
209 Quinnipiac Bobcats $-1350 193 -4 36.79% -61
210 Texas A&M $-1360 255 -1 38.82% -103.5
211 Western Michigan Broncos $-1380 262 -1 35.11% -9
212 Stephen F. Austin State Lumberjacks $-1380 89 -9 39.33% -85
213 Saint Johns Red Storm $-1380 241 -2 34.02% -53.5
214 Colorado Buffaloes $-1390 283 0 43.82% 72
215 Tennessee-Chattanooga Moccasins $-1410 246 -2 34.96% -180.5
216 North Carolina-Charlotte 49ers $-1420 251 -2 33.07% -259.5
217 Idaho Vandals $-1450 231 -3 33.77% -7
218 Western Carolina Catamounts $-1460 256 -2 30.47% -207
219 Alabama State Hornets $-1480 89 -10 19.1% -126.5
220 California-Riverside Highlanders $-1480 243 -3 26.75% -88.5
221 Idaho State Bengals $-1480 240 -3 25% -65.5
222 Oakland Golden Grizzlies $-1480 262 -2 35.88% -183
223 Chicago State Cougars $-1490 91 -10 6.59% -218
224 Loyola-Maryland Greyhounds $-1500 268 -2 28.73% -83.5
225 Jacksonville Dolphins $-1500 92 -10 27.17% 51.5
226 Boston University Terriers $-1510 115 -9 38.26% -63
227 Kentucky Wildcats $-1530 292 -1 47.6% 91.5
228 Miami-Florida Hurricanes $-1530 270 -2 42.96% 123
229 Siena College Saints $-1530 252 -3 35.71% -32.5
230 Stanford Cardinal $-1540 274 -2 41.97% -49
231 Vanderbilt Commodores $-1560 274 -2 36.13% 114.5
232 Holy Cross Crusaders $-1560 104 -10 27.88% -35.5
233 Rutgers Scarlet Knights $-1570 255 -3 29.41% -242.5
234 East Carolina Pirates $-1580 238 -4 29.83% -41
235 Eastern Kentucky Colonels $-1580 238 -4 34.03% -84.5
236 Delaware State Hornets $-1590 88 -11 17.05% -115.5
237 Louisiana State Tigers $-1600 266 -3 40.23% -100.5
238 Monmouth-New Jersey Hawks $-1600 220 -5 38.64% -59
239 Austin Peay State Governors $-1620 246 -4 32.93% -116
240 Boise State Broncos $-1630 265 -3 40.38% 92.5
241 Citadel Bulldogs $-1630 226 -5 19.47% -217
242 North Dakota Fighting Hawks $-1650 230 -5 33.91% -121
243 Kent State Golden Flashes $-1690 261 -4 40.61% -28
244 Liberty University Flames $-1690 107 -11 39.25% -30
245 Bryant University Bulldogs $-1700 88 -12 26.14% -128.5
246 Miami-Ohio Redhawks $-1700 263 -4 30.42% -53.5
247 Southern Illinois Salukis $-1710 266 -4 37.22% -153.5
248 Appalachian State Mountaineers $-1720 245 -5 29.39% -109.5
249 Marshall Thundering Herd $-1730 268 -4 37.31% -224.5
250 Rhode Island Rams $-1730 269 -4 38.66% 60
251 Nebraska Cornhuskers $-1740 268 -4 35.07% 23
252 Alabama Crimson Tide $-1750 273 -4 37% 21.5
253 Marquette Golden Eagles $-1770 274 -4 41.97% -16
254 Denver Pioneers $-1780 253 -5 37.15% -103
255 Texas-San Antonio Roadrunners $-1790 214 -7 33.18% 70.5
256 Alcorn State Braves $-1800 87 -13 20.69% -164.5
257 High Point Panthers $-1820 91 -13 29.67% -136
258 Texas Southern Tigers $-1840 119 -12 30.25% -33
259 Central Michigan Chippewas $-1840 254 -6 34.65% -50
260 Arkansas Razorbacks $-1860 269 -5 43.49% -104
261 Rider Broncs $-1870 254 -6 38.58% -27.5
262 Syracuse Orange $-1880 274 -5 45.26% -139.5
263 Brigham Young Cougars $-1880 278 -5 46.04% 118
264 Oklahoma State Cowboys $-1940 268 -6 39.18% 93.5
265 North Carolina-Greensboro Spartans $-1950 249 -7 37.75% 130
266 Texas Longhorns $-1970 273 -6 36.26% -9.5
267 Cleveland State Vikings $-2030 267 -7 33.71% -109
268 Ohio State Buckeyes $-2030 283 -6 45.94% 20.5
269 Niagara Purple Eagles $-2040 265 -7 30.94% -131
270 Marist Red Foxes $-2050 245 -8 27.35% -19
271 South Carolina Gamecocks $-2060 272 -7 38.6% -93.5
272 Central Connecticut State Blue Devils $-2070 79 -16 15.19% -148.5
273 California State-Sacramento Hornets $-2100 239 -9 31.38% -83.5
274 Texas State Bobcats $-2110 217 -10 35.94% -44.5
275 Missouri State Bears $-2120 237 -9 32.07% -167
276 Southern California Trojans $-2150 288 -7 37.85% -174.5
277 Northwestern Wildcats $-2160 270 -8 35.56% -62
278 California State-Long Beach 49ers $-2170 274 -8 34.67% -16
279 California State-Northridge Matadors $-2190 254 -9 25.98% -247.5
280 Duquesne Dukes $-2210 240 -10 32.08% -133.5
281 Columbia Lions $-2240 199 -12 27.64% -79.5
282 Notre Dame Fighting Irish $-2250 267 -9 40.07% -117.5
283 Wagner Seahawks $-2250 94 -17 35.11% -144.5
284 UCLA Bruins $-2290 292 -8 44.86% 9
285 Connecticut Huskies $-2290 273 -9 38.83% -94.5
286 Troy Trojans $-2360 245 -11 29.8% -47.5
287 Wisconsin-Milwaukee Panthers $-2360 270 -10 33.33% -188
288 Cornell Big Red $-2360 207 -13 26.57% -150
289 Morehead State Eagles $-2370 253 -11 30.83% -171.5
290 Cincinnati Bearcats $-2390 272 -10 45.22% 84.5
291 Ohio Bobcats $-2400 252 -11 40.87% -110
292 Washington Huskies $-2400 275 -10 38.91% -70
293 UNLV Rebels $-2450 289 -10 39.1% -154.5
294 Richmond Spiders $-2470 269 -11 40.15% 18
295 Northeastern Huskies $-2470 267 -11 41.95% 15
296 Dartmouth College Big Green $-2480 192 -15 24.48% -12
297 Howard Bison $-2500 103 -19 21.36% -141
298 Florida Gators $-2510 281 -11 41.64% 193
299 Boston College Eagles $-2520 257 -12 26.85% -112.5
300 Portland Pilots $-2530 262 -12 26.34% -235
301 Colorado State Rams $-2530 262 -12 37.4% 142.5
302 Southeast Missouri State Redhawks $-2540 240 -13 27.08% 44
303 Youngstown State Penguins $-2580 250 -13 28.4% -153
304 Southern Illinois-Edwardsville Cougars $-2620 231 -14 23.38% -83
305 Minnesota Golden Gophers $-2620 278 -12 38.49% -295.5
306 Fairfield Stags $-2650 260 -13 33.85% -199.5
307 Georgetown Hoyas $-2670 265 -13 38.11% 14
308 Indiana State Sycamores $-2670 267 -13 37.83% -159.5
309 North Carolina-Wilmington Seahawks $-2690 253 -14 32.02% -162
310 Arkansas State Red Wolves $-2700 249 -14 34.54% -193
311 Virginia Military Keydets $-2750 177 -18 21.47% -339
312 Southern Utah Thunderbirds $-2820 255 -15 24.71% -195
313 Illinois State Redbirds $-2820 274 -14 40.15% 54
314 Arizona State Sun Devils $-2900 278 -15 39.93% -28
315 Old Dominion Monarchs $-2910 271 -15 39.85% -11.5
316 Weber State Wildcats $-2920 252 -16 40.48% -69
317 Elon Phoenix $-2920 252 -16 34.52% -134
318 Drexel Dragons $-2970 265 -16 32.83% -120.5
319 Wake Forest Demon Deacons $-2980 265 -16 30.19% -100.5
320 Rice University Owls $-3050 238 -18 25.21% -38
321 Fordham Rams $-3090 248 -18 25.4% -177.5
322 South Florida Bulls $-3100 267 -17 27.72% -131
323 DePaul Blue Demons $-3100 271 -17 28.78% -167.5
324 Iona Gaels $-3130 274 -17 41.97% 116
325 North Dakota State Bison $-3140 254 -18 42.52% -7.5
326 Alabama-Birmingham Blazers $-3170 261 -18 38.7% -117.5
327 Western Illinois Leathernecks $-3180 220 -20 27.73% -167
328 Washington State Cougars $-3190 265 -18 31.7% -191
329 Montana State Bobcats $-3210 251 -19 30.68% -213.5
330 Bradley Braves $-3220 274 -18 31.02% -266.5
331 Northern Arizona Lumberjacks $-3260 258 -19 26.36% -372
332 Texas Tech Red Raiders $-3270 258 -19 33.33% -57
333 Kennesaw State Owls $-3280 91 -27 8.79% -186
334 Santa Clara Broncos $-3390 263 -20 31.94% -207.5
335 Oral Roberts Golden Eagles $-3550 209 -24 29.67% -180
336 La Salle Explorers $-3570 260 -22 35.38% -194
337 James Madison Dukes $-3580 260 -22 33.85% -144.5
338 Eastern Illinois Panthers $-3630 246 -23 33.33% -214
339 Texas Christian Horned Frogs $-3690 261 -23 31.8% -44.5
340 Detroit-Mercy Titans $-3700 266 -23 27.07% -221.5
341 George Mason Patriots $-3850 272 -24 35.29% -55.5
342 Tennessee-Martin Skyhawks $-3870 229 -26 29.26% -239
343 Tulane Green Wave $-3900 242 -26 27.69% -223
344 California Golden Bears $-4020 283 -25 36.4% -326
345 Illinois Fighting Illini $-4030 274 -26 35.04% -193
346 Ball State Cardinals $-4170 249 -28 32.13% -143.5
347 California State-Fullerton Titans $-4170 252 -28 32.14% -66.5
348 Florida Atlantic Owls $-4350 244 -30 27.87% -151
349 San Jose State Spartans $-4370 252 -30 16.67% -384
350 College of Charleston Cougars $-4790 266 -33 37.97% -194.5
351 George Washington Colonials $-5090 267 -36 34.46% -79.5
352 Indiana-Purdue Jaguars $-5140 254 -37 25.59% -339
353 Pittsburgh Panthers $-5190 272 -37 31.25% -289.5
354 Cal Poly-Slo Mustangs $-6250 249 -48 26.1% -338
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(DEC 30 - JAN 05) - 7 DAY BANKROLL TOTAL: +124 UNITS
(DEC 23 - 29) - 7 DAY BANKROLL TOTAL: +27 UNITS
**PATREON TOP RATED EXCLUSIVE PLAYS*\*
NCAAB HUSH MONEY PLAY (FEB 07) - (DARTMOUTH +4 vs BROWN -4)
NCAAB MAJOR MOVE ALERT PLAY (FEB 07) - (IONA +5.5 vs QUINNIPIAC -5.5)
NCAAB BACK ROOM INFO PLAY (FEB 07) - (CENTRAL MICHIGAN +5.5 vs BUFFALO -5.5)
NCAAB EARLY INFO PLAY (FEB 07) - (TORONTO RAPTORS -1 vs INDIANA PACERS +1)
NBA LATE INFO PLAY (FEB 07) - (HOUSTON ROCKETS -3 vs PHOENIX SUNS +3)
NCAAB EARLY INFO PLAY (FEB 07) - (MARYLAND +3 vs ILLINOIS -3)
**PATREON PREMIUM PLAYS*\*
NBA RED ALERT PLAY (FEB 07) - (PORTLAND TRAIL BLAZERS +9.5 vs UTAH JAZZ -9.5)
NCAAB RED ALERT PLAY (FEB 07) - (HARVARD +6 vs YALE -6)
NCAAB RED ALERT PLAY (FEB 07) - (DARTMOUTH +4 vs BROWN -4)
NCAAB RED ALERT PLAY (FEB 07) - (PENNSYLVANIA -6 vs COLUMBIA +6)
NHL RED ALERT PLAY (FEB 07) - (MINNESOTA WILD vs DALLAS STARS)
**DAILY MAC ATTACK FREE PICKS*\*
NBA MAC ATTACK PICK (FEB 07) - (TORONTO RAPTORS -1)
NCAAB MAC ATTACK PICK (FEB 07) - (QUINNIPIAC -5.5) - MyBookie 50% Bonus
NHL MAC ATTACK PLAY (FEB 07) - (RED WINGS vs BLUE JACKETS UNDER 5.5)
**FREE DAILY FUN PLAY TEASER & PARLAY PICKS*\*
FUN PLAY 2 TEAM NBA PARLAY (FEB 07) - (PORTLAND TRAIL BLAZERS +9.5 X PHOENIX SUNS +3)
!!EARLY INFO FREE RELEASES!!
EXCLUSIVE UFC 247 EASY EARLY MONEY MMA PICK (FEB 08) - (DOMINICK REYES +330)
EXCLUSIVE UFC 247 EASY EARLY MONEY MMA PICK (FEB 08) - (TREVIN GILES -160)
EXCLUSIVE PEBBLE BEACH PRO AM PICK (FEB 06) - (PAUL CASEY +2000)
submitted by TheMACSPicks to SportsReport [link] [comments]

Big Ten Daily - November 5, 2019

It truly is the most wonderful time of the year. College basketball is back! So what if only two Big Ten teams are playing real, actual teams? College. Basketball. Is. Back. I'll be your tour guide through B1G hoops all season long. Will these posts actually be daily? Probably not. Life gets in the way, you know. But I hope to make this a fairly regular feature, the daily one-stop-shop for all the Big Ten fans here... and I know there a ton of you. I'll mess around with the format as we go but consider this your daily Big Ten discussion thread.
The fire hose is open, so let's drink.

Today's Games

Away Home Time Rundown Network
Western Illinois Western Illinois Indiana Indiana 7:00 PM EST Indiana is dealing with some injury issues with Devonte Green out and Rob Phinisee questionable. The big X-factor might be Jerome Hunter, a buzz-y recruit who missed last season with injury. Oh, and while he's not getting Romeo Langford-like hype, Trayce Jackson-Davis is a top-30 recruit who will also be making his debut today. WIU has a good Summit League player in Kobe Webster, but the Hoosiers will be able to experiment with lineups and get their bench plenty of burn. BTN+
Appalachian State Appalachian State Michigan Michigan 7:00 PM EST It's the beginning of the Juwan Howard era in Ann Arbor. A few familiar faces are back: Zavier Simpson, Jon Teske, and Isaiah Livers. But you might need the program handy to identify anyone else on the floor. David DeJulius has looked good in the preseason but it remains to be seen if he and Simpson can co-exist on the floor together. With Franz Wagner (yes, he's Mo's brother) out with a fractured wrist, the Wolverines will have to see what works on the wing. Appalachian State has a new coach who loves to bomb three-pointers, but Michigan will obviously have the edge inside. Big Ten Network
UMES Maryland Eastern Shore Penn State Penn State 7:00 PM EST What can you say about a game featuring possibly the worst team in Division 1? And also features Maryland Eastern Shore? (Sorry, had to do it) Lamar Stevens can name his point total in this one and Mike Watkins might grab all the rebounds, but the Nittany Lions will try to find out which underclassmen can step into the roles vacated by Josh Reaves (graduated) and Rasir Bolton (transferred). BTN+
Holy Cross Holy Cross Maryland Maryland 7:30 PM EST The Maryland hype has been well-documented. They have all the right ingredients: A senior point guard in Anthony Cowan, an NBA-level big man in Jalen Smith, sharpshooting wings in Eric Ayala and Aaron Wiggins, and a talented freshman class. The only question is, what kind of chef is Mark Turgeon? Maryland's big weakness is turnovers on both sides of the ball, and the Cross-aders both took good care of the ball last year and turned other teams over. That might be something to look for, but HC also lost three of their best players and brings in a new coach. BTN+
Nicholls Nicholls Illinois Illinois 8:00 PM EST PSA: Kofi Cockburn is pronounced like "Coburn," which, I mean, when a guy who looks like this:format(webp)/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/62795509/LUwY1Bn2_400x400.0.jpg) tells you how to pronounce his name, you listen. The 7-footer seems like the missing link in Brad Underwood's pressure defense, a true rim defender to give the guards confidence that the opposition won't have a layup line if they get by. Tevian Jones is suspended, but the Illini style can overwhelm teams like this: they led off last season with a 39-point win over Evansville. BTN+
Cleveland State Cleveland State Minnesota Minnesota 8:00 PM EST Minnesota enters the post-Jordan Murphy (and Amir Coffey) era. Daniel Oturu feels like a natural fill-in for Murphy while Pitt transfer Marcus Carr is more of a true point guard than Coffey was. The hidden area those two will be missed: drawing fouls. Minnesota was 15th in the country at getting to the line last year which helped mask suspect shooting. Murphy and Coffey were the main reasons for that, so they'll need to pick up the slack elsewhere to compensate. Gabe Kalscheur will need a bigger role as a sophomore after hitting 41% of his threes last year. Cleveland State is a nice punching bag. They might have been the biggest offseason tire fire, dumping their coach in July after a mutiny from the players. BTN+
UC Riverside UC Riverside Nebraska Nebraska 9:00 PM EST This isn't your father's Nebraska... because this isn't anyone's Nebraska. With 13 new faces plus a new coach in Fred Hoiberg, the Huskers have been completely made over from last year's disappointing squad. JUCO point guard Cam Mack will transition seamlessly into Hoiberg's offense and play at a Big Ten level, while Matej Kavas is the most underrated in-transfer the conference is receiving this season. Dude is 6'8" and has shot 45% on 370 career three-point attempts. UC Riverside was one of the slowest teams in the country last year but Hoiberg liked to get up and down and Iowa State. I have a feeling I know which side will win out in this clash of styles. Big Ten Network
St. Mary's (CA) St. Mary's Wisconsin Wisconsin 9:00 PM EST Nobody in the conference used more possessions for their team than Ethan Happ last year. He's finally graduated so the Badgers will inevitably look different. And they better figure out their new identity quickly, because St. Mary's is coming in loaded with Jordan Ford and Malik Fitts. Oh, and they have a 7-3 transfer eligible for good measure. Nate Reuvers will have his hands full with Aaron Menzies, so he'll need to exploit his mobility advantage on the offensive end. D'Mitrik Trice starting the season white-hot from beyond the arc wouldn't hurt, either. This game is being played at a neutral site in South Dakota. Because, sure it is. ESPNU
Kentucky Kentucky Michigan State Michigan State 9:30 PM EST The main course. Cassius Winston is the consensus top player in the country, and right away he faces one of the top on-ball defenders in Ashton Hagans. With Josh Langford's injury lingering, the Spartans need tournament Aaron Henry to step up and be the #2 or #3 with Xavier Tilman. Kyle Ahrens has been battling an ankle injury but is set to play, and without a Hauser waiver he'll be needed to play extended minutes. Rocket Watts and Gabe Brown can help neutralize the Wildcat's athleticism advantage but it's a big stage for a freshman and a seldom-used sophomore. Kentucky is dealing with injury concerns of their own (Nick Richards) so this might wind up as a battle of attrition. ESPN

Beat The B1G

Bets
Nebraska -15 vs. UC Riverside - Hoiberg sends a message with a 20+ point win. The team has talent, I think the question marks are more about how it comes together. Against a team like UC Riverside I just don't seen it mattering all that much
Picks
That's the only one I feel truly confident in. With these huge spreads you're mostly just guessing how heavy the coach's foot is on the gas pedal.
Appalachian State +17.5 at Michigan
Western Illinois +21.5 at Indiana
Maryland Eastern Shore +36 at Penn State
Maryland -26 vs. Holy Cross
Minnesota -20.5 vs. Cleveland State
Illinois -22.5 vs. Nicholls
Wisconsin +3.5 vs. St. Mary's
Kentucky +3 vs. Michigan State

News And Notes

  1. Juwan Howard did a whoopsie.
  2. Michigan State and Rutgers will meet at Madison Square Garden in 2021 as part of the Super Saturday thingamajig. It's kind of a cool event but this will be Rutgers' third time in five seasons taking part and some point it's just going to be diminishing returns. Giving up a home game against a marquee team like the Spartans is lame, too.
  3. /CollegeBasketball EXCLUSIVE: Indiana opponent Western Illinois was spotted at Applebee's. What does this mean? Everything.
submitted by NowWithVitamin_R to CollegeBasketball [link] [comments]

Week 8 (Unofficial) Sports Betting Discussion Thread

Discuss spreads, oveunders, and prop bets for this week's games. Feel free to ask any questions you have about betting in college football.
Here are the lines and spreads
submitted by Talpostal to CFB [link] [comments]

Polling Megathread [11/07]

Welcome to the /politics polling megathread! As discussed in our metathread, we will be hosting a daily polling megathread to cover the latest released polls. As the election draws near, more and more polls will be released, and we will start to see many new polls on a daily basis. This thread is intended to aggregate these posts so users can discuss the latest polls. Like we stated in the metathread, posts analyzing poll results will still be permitted.

National Poll of Polls and Projections

Poll of Polls
Poll of polls are averages of the latest national polls. Different sources differ in which polls they accept, and how long they keep them in their average, which accounts for the differences. They give a snapshot to what the polling aggregates say about the national race right now, to account for outliers or biases in individual polls.
We have included both the 4 way race (4 way), and head to head aggregates (H2H), as they are presented this way in most polls.
Aggregator Clinton % Trump % Johnson % Stein % Net Margin
RCP (4 way) 45.1 42.2 4.8 2.0 Clinton +2.9
RCP (H2H) 46.9 44.3 N/A N/A Clinton +2.6
PollsteHuffpo (4 way) 46.1 41.5 5.3 N/A Clinton +4.6
PollsteHuffpo (H2H) 47.5 42.3 N/A N/A Clinton +5.2
Projections
Projections are data-driven models that try to make a prediction of a candidate's prospects on election day. They will incorporate polling data to give an estimate on how that will affect a candidate's chance of winning. Note: The percentages given are not popular vote margins, but the probability that a given candidate will win the presidency on election night.
Model Clinton % Trump %
Fivethirtyeight Polls Plus* 66.3 33.6
Princeton Election Consortium** > 99 < 1
NYT Upshot 84 16
Daily Kos Elections 88 12
* Fivethirtyeight also includes Now Cast and a Polls-Only mode. These are available on the website but are not reproduced here. The Now Cast projects the election outcome if the election were held today, whereas Polls-Only projects the election on November 8th without factoring in historical data and other factors.
** Sam Wang's Princeton Election Consortium includes both a "random drift" and Bayesian projection. We have reproduced the "random drift" values in our table.
The NYT Upshot page has also helpfully included links to other projection models, including "prediction" sites. Predictwise is a Vegas betting site and reflects what current odds are for a Trump or Clinton win. Charlie Cook, Stu Rothenburg, and Larry Sabato are veteran political scientists who have their own projections for the outcome of the election based on experience, and insider information from the campaigns themselves.

Daily Presidential Polls

Below, we have collected the latest national and state polls. The head to head (H2H) and 4 way surveys are both included. We include the likely voter (LVs) numbers, when possible, in this list, but users are welcome to read the polling reports themselves for the matchups among registered voters (RVs).
National Polls
Date Released/Pollster Clinton % Trump % Johnson % Stein % Net Margin
11/07, Ipsos/Reuters 42 39 6 3 Clinton +3
11/07, Gravis 47 43 3 2 Clinton +4
11/07, CCES/Yougov 43 39 5 N/A Clinton +4
11/07, Angus Reid 48 44 6 N/A Clinton +4
11/07, Monmouth U. 50 44 4 1 Clinton +6
11/07, Bloomberg/Selzer 44 41 4 2 Clinton +3
11/07, CBS News 45 41 5 2 Clinton +4
11/07, Fox News 48 44 3 2 Clinton +4
11/07, NBC/SM 47 41 6 3 Clinton +6
11/07, Economist/Yougov 45 41 5 N/A Clinton +4
11/07, ABC/WaPo 47 43 4 1 Clinton +4
11/07, IBD/TIPP 41 43 6 2 Trump +2
11/07, Rasmussen 45 43 4 2 Clinton +2
11/07, LA Times/USC 43 48 N/A N/A Trump +5
State Polling
Date Released/Pollster State Clinton % Trump % Johnson % Stein % Net Margin
11/07, Gravis Alaska 41 44 3 6 Trump +3
11/07, Gravis Arizona 43 45 3 5 Trump +2
11/07, Data Orbital Arizona 44 47 4 2 Trump +3
11/07, Gravis Colorado 44 43 5 2 Clinton +1
11/07, Breitbart/Gravis Florida 46 45 4 N/A Clinton +1
11/07, Trafalgar (R) Florida 46 50 2 1 Trump +4
11/07, Opinion Savvy Florida 48 46 3 1 Clinton +2
11/07, Quinnipiac U. Florida 46 45 2 1 Clinton +1
11/07, Gravis Georgia 44 48 3 3 Trump +4
11/07, CBS/Yougov Georgia 43 49 4 N/A Trump +6
11/07, Fox 2/Mitchell Michigan 47 41 N/A N/A Clinton +6
11/07, Breitbart/Gravis Michigan 46 41 3 N/A Clinton +5
11/07, Trafalgar (R) Michigan 47 49 3 N/A Trump +2
11/07, Clarity Campaign (D) Missouri 38 54 N/A N/A Trump +16
11/07, Emerson* Missouri 41 47 7 2 Trump +6
11/07, Gravis Nevada 45 43 4 N/A Clinton +2
11/07, Emerson* Nevada 47 46 4 N/A Clinton +1
11/07, Remington (R) Nevada 45 46 3 N/A Trump +1
11/07, Emerson* New Hampshire 45 44 5 3 Clinton +1
11/07, Breitbart/Gravis New Mexico 45 37 11 N/A Clinton +8
11/07, Zia Poll* New Mexico 46 44 6 1 Clinton +2
11/07, Gravis New York 55 36 2 2 Clinton +19
11/07, Breitbart/Gravis North Carolina 46 45 3 N/A Clinton +1
11/07, NYT/Siena North Carolina 44 44 3 N/A Tied
11/07, Quinnipiac U. North Carolina 47 45 3 N/A Clinton +2
11/07, Gravis Ohio 42 48 4 1 Trump +6
11/07, Emerson* Ohio 39 46 7 2 Trump +7
11/07, Gravis Oregon 44 40 6 5 Clinton +4
11/07, Gravis Pennsylvania 46 40 7 2 Clinton +6
11/07, CBS/Yougov Pennsylvania 45 43 4 N/A Clinton +2
11/07, Trafalgar (R) Pennsylvania 46 47 2 1 Trump +1
11/07, Clarity Campaign (D) Pennsylvania 47 43 4 1 Clinton +4
11/07, Gravis South Carolina 43 48 3 1 Trump +5
11/07, Starboard Comm. (R) South Carolina 36 47 3 1 Trump +11
11/07, CBS/Yougov** Utah 23 40 7 N/A Trump +16
11/07, Breitbart/Gravis Virginia 47 42 4 N/A Clinton +5
11/07, Hampton U. Virginia 45 41 N/A N/A Clinton +4
11/07, Chris. Newport U. Virginia 48 42 N/A N/A Clinton +6
11/07, Gravis Wisconsin 47 44 3 1 Clinton +3
11/07, Clarity Campaign (D) Wisconsin 47 43 4 1 Clinton +4
Jill Stein is not listed on the ballot in Nevada, South Dakota, and Oklahoma. She is not on the ballot, but eligible as a write-in candidate in Indiana and North Carolina.
*Emerson only polls landlines. The Zia Poll is 95% landlines with only a 5% cell phone supplement. Standard pollster practice is to include as much as a 45% cell phone supplement or internet panel to account for changes in the electorate.
**Evan McMullin is second in this survey, drawing 24% of the vote.
For more information on state polls, including trend lines for individual states, visit RCP and HuffPo/Pollster and click on states (note, for Pollster, you will have to search for the state in the search bar).
Update Log/Comments:
  • Any poll denoted with (R) or (D) refers to a pollster that is an internal pollster traditionally polling for one party or another. That doesn't mean their polls are wrong, but they do have a potential bias.
  • All national polls are believed to be final calls except for IBD. ABC will be releasing its final tracking poll result in the afternoon. CNN is presumably releasing its final poll at noon or 4PM EST today.
  • I updated the previous megathread a little late yesterday. 3 polls came out around 11PM-12AM EST: A Targetsmart final tracking poll of Ohio, showing Trump leading by 3 pts (previously, Clinton led); a WMUUNH poll of New Hampshire, showing Clinton leading by 11 pts (previously, Clinton was up 7); and a Boston Herald/Franklin Pierce national poll, showing Clinton up 4 pts (previously, Clinton was up 5).
  • Opinion Savvy has released its final Florida poll, showing Clinton up 2 pts. Its previous poll had Clinton up 4 pts.
  • Trafalgar has released its final Florida poll, showing Trump leading by 4 pts. The margin is identical to its previous poll.
  • Clarity Campaign, what appears to be an internal Democratic pollster, has released polling showing Clinton up 4 pts in Pennsylvania, and 4 pts in Wisconsin. Trump leads by 14 pts in Missouri.
  • Angus-Reid has released its final national poll, showing Clinton up 4 pts. This pollster used a randomized online sample from an online panel, although its methodology does not appear to be similar to the LA Times/USC panel poll.
  • Data Orbital has released what appears to be its final Arizona poll, showing Trump leading by 3 pts. Its previous poll had Trump up 8 pts.
  • ABC News tracker has updated and finds the race unchanged with the addition of its Sunday sample.
  • Trafalgar has released its final poll from Pennsylvania, showing Trump leading by 1 pt.
  • Starboard Communications has released its final poll from South Carolina, showing Trump leading by 11 pts.
  • CBS/Yougov has released final polls for Georgia, Pennsylvania, and Utah. Its Pennsylvania poll shows a 6 pt gain for Trump, who now only trails by 2 pts.
  • Hampton University has released its final poll for Virginia, showing Clinton leading by 3. Its previous poll last week showed Trump leading by 3.
  • The Economist/Yougov has released its final tracking poll, showing Clinton leading by 4 pts. Previously, Clinton led by 3.
  • Trafalgar has released its final poll for Michigan, showing Trump leading by 2 pts.
  • Gravis has released its final poll for Nevada, showing Clinton leading by 2 pts.
  • Breitbart/Gravis has released its final polls for Florida, Michigan, New Mexico, North Carolina, and Virginia. Clinton leads by 1 pt in Florida and North Carolina, 5 pts in Michigan and Virginia, and 8 pts in New Mexico.
  • CCES/Yougov has released its final 50 state survey. In its national poll, it has Clinton up 4 pts, identical to the spread with the CBS/Yougov model. Ipsos/Reuters has also released its final 50 state survey.
  • Gravis has released a multi-state final polling report of Alaska, Arizona, Colorado, Georgia, New York, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, and Wisconsin. It has also released its final national poll, showing Clinton leading by 4 pts.
  • Ipsos/Reuters has released its final national poll, showing Clinton leading by 3 pts. Previously, she led by 4 pts.
  • Fox 2/Mitchell has released its presumably final tracking poll of Michigan, showing Clinton leading by 6 pts. Previously, she led by 5 pts.
  • Election Results: Dixville Notch in NH has historically voted at the stroke of midnight, along with Hart's Location and Millsfield. 8 voters have voted. 4 have voted for Clinton, 2 for Trump, 1 for Johnson, and a write-in for Mitt Romney. In Hart's Location, 17 have voted for Clinton, 14 for Trump, 3 for Johnson, 2 for Sanders, and 1 for a Kasich/Sanders ticket. In Millsfield, 4 have voted for Clinton, 16 have voted for Trump, and 1 for Sanders.
Previous Thread(s): 10/02 | 10/04 - 10/06 | 10/07 - 10/09 | 10/10 - 10/12 | 10/13 - 10/15 | 10/16 | 10/17 | 10/18 - 10/19 | 10/20 - 10/23 | 10/24 - 10/25 | 10/26 | 10/27 | 10/28 - 10/30 | 10/31 - 11/02 | 11/03 | 11/04 - 11/05 | 11/06
submitted by Isentrope to politics [link] [comments]

Probabilistic Predictive Computer Rankings of CFB after Week 13

This system is meant to be predictive. Each team's rating corresponds to their expected scoring margin against an average opponent. So if your team has a rating of +14, that means they'd be expected to be 14 points better than the average FBS team on a neutral field.
Subtract two teams' ratings to get the expected spread if they were to play each other, with 4 points given to the home team.

Prediction Accuracy:

I don't trust the rating system during the first half of the season, so I only started tracking accuracy with week 7. Below is the breakdown of the predictions (straight-up and against the spread) for this week and for weeks 7+:
Accuracy vs Spread Straight up Mean Error (SU)
Week 7 47.8% 61.5% 13.579
Week 8 43.6% 73.8% 14.202
Week 9 56.3% 65.5% 13.903
Week 10 54.5% 78.7% 13.698
Week 11 46.5% 56.3% 12.996
Week 12 53.5% 74.5% 12.874
Week 13 49.0% 80.7% 11.863
Average 50.0% 70.4% 13.261
I had briefly instituted a cap on margin of victory at 35 points, but it made the ratings less accurate in aggregate, so I ended up eliminating that. Right now we're at exactly 50% ATS, which is not very good from a betting perspective. The majority of misses ATS are predictions that were within a point or less of the pregame spread, so not a very strong disagreement. But the mean error has shrunk pretty much every week, and at this point is very strong.
Here's a summary of the actual average margins for games, grouped by expected margin:
Expected Margin Game Count Accuracy Avg Expected Margin Avg Actual Margin
0 to 10 170 55.3% 4.5 3.8
10 to 20 119 77.3% 14.8 12.1
20 to 30 51 90.2% 24.9 20.5
30 to 40 21 90.5% 34.1 27.6
40 to 50 8 100% 45.1 38.3
This is showing that the margins are consistently closer than my predictions are letting on. This seems to be a persistent issue, so I'll be working on re-calibrating the ratings during the offseason to address it. Still working out the logic of how to best account for it, though.

Ratings:

Rank Team Rating
1 Ohio State +41.86
2 Clemson +31.27
3 Alabama +30.14
4 LSU +29.52
5 Utah +27.27
6 Wisconsin +26.42
7 Penn State +25.48
8 Oklahoma +25.03
9 Oregon +24.72
10 Auburn +24.13
11 Georgia +23.90
12 Michigan +23.40
13 Florida +22.33
14 Iowa St +20.41
15 Notre Dame +19.86
16 Baylor +18.70
17 Memphis +17.25
18 Iowa +16.97
19 Minnesota +16.39
20 Oklahoma St +15.39
21 Texas +15.35
22 Central Florida +15.19
23 TCU +15.09
24 Washington +14.87
25 Navy +14.33
26 Kansas St +13.48
27 Texas A&M +13.40
28 Southern Cal +13.05
29 Louisiana-Lafayette +12.03
30 Washington St +11.66
31 Appalachian St +10.91
32 SMU +10.29
33 Cincinnati +9.82
34 Boise St +9.61
35 Air Force +9.30
36 Arizona St +8.83
37 Michigan St +8.67
38 Indiana +7.80
39 Tulane +7.28
40 Virginia Tech +7.06
41 Texas Tech +6.80
42 Mississippi St +6.77
43 Virginia +6.57
44 Florida Atlantic +5.99
45 Mississippi +5.74
46 California +5.17
47 Nebraska +4.73
48 North Carolina +4.66
49 Miami FL +4.32
50 Illinois +4.21
51 Missouri +4.06
52 Tennessee +3.78
53 Oregon St +3.70
54 Kentucky +2.85
55 Houston +2.64
56 South Carolina +2.59
57 Pittsburgh +1.96
58 Louisville +1.61
59 Western Kentucky +1.52
60 Wake Forest +0.88
61 UCLA +0.83
62 Florida St +0.61
63 Tulsa +0.40
64 Purdue +0.31
65 Brigham Young +0.28
66 Wyoming +0.26
67 Stanford -0.11
68 West Virginia -0.16
69 Kansas -0.50
70 Colorado -0.51
71 Army -0.89
72 Temple -1.37
73 Western Michigan -2.41
74 Boston College -2.58
75 Louisiana Tech -2.66
76 Buffalo -2.78
77 San Diego St -3.15
78 Georgia Southern -3.20
79 Arizona -3.30
80 Southern Miss -3.32
81 Hawai`i -3.46
82 Marshall -3.93
83 Duke -4.04
84 Ohio U. -4.23
85 Ball St -5.31
86 Northwestern -5.40
87 Arkansas St -5.83
88 Fresno St -6.21
89 Utah St -6.61
90 Alabama-Birmingham -6.68
91 Central Michigan -7.31
92 Syracuse -7.41
93 Eastern Michigan -8.07
94 Middle Tennessee St -8.21
95 Georgia St -8.50
96 Troy -8.54
97 San José St -8.66
98 South Florida -8.67
99 Miami OH -9.14
100 Kent St -9.17
101 Arkansas -9.27
102 Maryland -9.80
103 North Texas -9.95
104 UNC-Charlotte -10.48
105 Coastal Carolina -10.52
106 Georgia Tech -11.02
107 North Carolina St -11.04
108 Florida Int'l -11.38
109 Liberty -11.79
110 Colorado St -12.13
111 Louisiana-Monroe -12.22
112 East Carolina -12.27
113 Rice -13.15
114 Northern Illinois -13.25
115 Toledo -14.43
116 Vanderbilt -15.21
117 Nevada -17.51
118 South Alabama -17.96
119 Old Dominion -18.52
120 UNLV -19.21
121 Texas St-San Marcos -19.41
122 Rutgers -20.20
123 New Mexico -20.53
124 Texas-San Antonio -21.92
125 Connecticut -23.50
126 New Mexico St -24.84
127 UTEP -27.80
128 Bowling Green -32.38
129 Akron -35.85
130 Massachusetts -45.30
Here is a heatmapped image of each team's probability of being at each rating from 50 to -50. I think this helps visualize the idea that the teams' final ratings are just the most likely/average of an interval of possible ratings for the teams.
Heatmapped rating probability distribution of likely ratings for each team (+50 to -50)

Notes on the process:

The model does this with an iterative approach, with the result of each prior iteration feeding in as the starting point of the next iteration.
During each iteration, the model looks at each team's results by scoring margin in each of its games against FBS opponents, using the opponents' rating from the previous iteration. Then it calculates the probability that a team with rating R would have that result in that game. It assigns such a probability for all possible ratings from -100 to +100 for each game. Then, using those results, it calculates the probability that a team with rating R would achieve the full season results that the team has achieved. After that, it uses Bayes' Theorem to assign a probability that each team is rated at each rating from -100 to +100. Finally, it takes the expected value of the teams' rating (i.e. the weighted average of the ratings using the probabilities as the weights). This gives the final result.
submitted by ExternalTangents to u/ExternalTangents [link] [comments]

Official /r/TheB1G Week 10 Power Rankings

Week 10 Power Rankings:
Okay, Nebraska, we get it. You can brigade any internet poll. Congratulations. We had a record number of voters this week, as well as a record number of obvious troll votes that had to be thrown out (almost exclusively Nebraska fans, many of whom voted their team #1 and/or Iowa #14). This is a reminder that I remove those votes, so your blatant trolling was for naught.
Rank Team Points Average Rank Prev. Change Variance
1 Michigan 145(145) 1.00 1 0 0.00
2 Ohio State 311 2.14 2 0 0.39
3 Northwestern 669 4.61 5 +2 3.67
4 Penn State 680 4.69 3 -1 2.26
5 Michigan State 740 5.10 6 +1 3.34
6 Purdue 837 5.77 8 +2 2.51
7 Wisconsin 897 6.19 7 0 2.58
8 Iowa 1044 7.20 4 -4 3.65
9 Nebraska 1382 9.53 12 +3 3.49
10 Maryland 1471 10.14 9 -1 1.79
11 Indiana 1602 11.05 10 -1 1.50
12 Illinois 1707 11.77 13 +1 0.98
13 Minnesota 1723 11.88 11 -2 1.69
14 Rutgers 2017 13.91 14 0 0.12
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1. That’s three-straight dominant wins (42-7) over a ranked team as the revenge tour rolls on. Michigan won the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball and set the tone early. They sacked Trace McSorley twice on the opening drive, which established the kind of day it was going to be for the PSU offense (186 total yards). They bottled up Miles Sanders (14 yards on 7 carries), McSorley was just 5 of 13 passing, there were five sacks, and two interceptions (one each for Tommy Stevens). Once again Josh Uche led the pass rush with two sacks…he’s now second in the B1G with seven, all coming in the past five games. His quickness, speed, and athleticism are tough for O-linemen to handle. Brandon Watson returned an INT for a TD and Michigan cornerbacks now have scored four touchdowns, twice the amount they’ve allowed. Crazy. A PSU touchdown with 1:59 remaining prevented the shutout. Don Brown IS the king of DCs. The offense established the running game early as the Wolverines went 76 yards on eight plays on their first drive, all runs, to take a 7-0 lead. That was a statement in itself. Michigan outran PSU 259 yards to 68 with Karan Higdon going for 132 yards to give him seven-straight with 100-plus yards. Shea Patterson ran for 42 yards and accounted for three scores, one rushing and two through the air, including a pretty scoring strike while rolling to his right to Donovan Peoples-Jones, who now has seven TD grabs. Most importantly, the offensive line is developing into a strength. They not only opened holes for the running game but limited PSU to just one sack (3.5 per game coming in). Sitting at No. 4 in the CFB Playoff Rankings, the Wolverines are in a good place ten weeks in. B1GLove
2. Good news: our running game finally showed up again and Brendon White actually looked like a competent safety when he got the chance to play. Bad news: The defense still can't stop the run and LB play is still just as bad as always. Michigan is going to score at will against this defense. Up next: A road trip up to East Lansing where our defense will do their best to make Sparty look like an offensive juggernaut. Strangely enough considering how hotly contested OSU/MSU games have been lately, but Sparty hasn't actually beaten the Buckeyes in East Lansing since 1999. I wouldn't be surprised if that streak ends this week. topher3003
3. LeinadSpoon
4. Well, that wasn't what I expected. Michigan absolutely trounced Penn State in a game where the offense could do absolutely nothing to get going. If not for a Tommy Stevens garbage time TD, the Lions would have been shutout. I have to give the defense some credit for keeping the game within two scores up until the half. I don't even fully fault them for the second half collapse because they were tired from being on the field for ⅔ of the game - the offense did little other help. Hot take: at this point, I don't think the Lions should be ranked. Even our best wins are unconvincing, looking back. My confidence in Rahne is shaken as any chance we have have left for a second tier bowl game hinges on this weekend against Wisconsin. 2ndHalfTeam
5. A solid win over a program in turmoil and it seems MSU is getting this season back on track. The defense is coming around nicely as players return from injury. The offense is still shaky as neith QB looked good this week. The wind was certainly a factor, but the Lewerke injury and Lombardi's inexperience make things tough moving forward, despite the plan to stick with Brian for the moment. Next week is a big game against an OSU team that has struggled as of late. Getting a win here puts MSU in line for a NY6 bowl if cards begin to fall in the right way. FoxMcbowser42
6. Purdue knocked off another Top 25 team at Ross-Ade to improve to 3-0 on the season. It's incredible how different this team looks now vs. the first three weeks. David Bloug had two killer interceptions, but he also had three long touchdown passes and another short one to help Purdue secure the game. The end of the game was a thriller; after allowing Iowa to take a one point lead, Purdue's final drive started from midfield and included a 4th and 2 conversion. Spencer Evans converted a chip shot field goal for the game winner. Next weekend, the Boilermakers go on the road to Minnesota, witha good chance to become bowl eligible before the last game of the season for the first time since...who can remember that long ago. dgahimer
7. Woo, we beat Rutgers! Hornibrook did not have a good day in his return from his concussion. He went 7/16 with 2 INTs, but the worst was that right before halftime he was tackled, landing on the back of his helmet and had to leave the game. On the bright side, coming out of halftime the Badgers said, "You know what? We really don't need to pass the ball." Wisconsin did not throw a pass in the 3rd quarter and unlike last week, Jonathan Taylor was able to carry the offense in Hornibrook's absence (with a little help from the O-line of course) to the tune of 208 yds and 3 TDs. Although Rutgers was able to score some points in the 4th quarter, the game was effectively over after the 3rd. pianobadger
8. Missed the game. Got married. Pretty sure I got the better end of that deal. Heard there was some suspect officiating and some terrible secondary play by Iowa. trumpet_23
9. In a season like this, the best medicine is to find the good things to build on. Well I’ll take the bitter pill and talk special teams. How is it possible to be so grotesquely terrible at every single facet of special teams? We get punts blocked, but even clean punts don’t go very far. We always lose the field position game. We miss field goals and PATs. We kick off out of bounds. When we manage to keep the kickoff in play, we can’t stop long returns. We are terrible at our own kick returns. We do this? On the bright side, the rest of the season really looks winnable. But also losable. This week is Illinois, Nebraska holds the all-time lead 11-3-1. Nebraska_Actually
10. Guess I'll start out with the happenings of last week... The BoR's decision to retain Durkin, Evans, and Loh was unfathomable. Even if you didn't care about the optics, the two reports outline so many failings and infighting at all levels of the university that there is no way to continue with the status quo. And the media is so caught up in their narrative that the culture killed a player that no one has even bothered to talk about the fact that the trainers who failed to properly treat McNair are still employed. The very students that organized protest at the decision to retain Durkin failed to show up and support the student-athletes even after he was fired. Then we have a backup punter tried to use the situation to air his own personal grievances by running media and the Murphy law firm to slander a teammate. As someone who loves my university, it's painful to witness this whole situation. I have so much respect for the players and their handling of this because their resilience through this challenging time is one of the few bright spots of the last few months. Anyways, onto our previously scheduled programming. It's gotten kinda bland writing this blurb because I probably could have gotten away with only writing two of them this whole season. Last week Maryland's run game was unstoppable and the pass game got involved against a bad opponent. This week we faced a tough run defense and the Maryland offense looked completely inept from start to finish. Stop me if you've heard this before. Maryland has not played a game that was within 21 points since Week 1. Down 17-3 in the 4th quarter, Maryland very nearly flipped the script. With MSU backed up in their own redzone, Byron Cowart corralled a deflected pass and was going to take it to the house for a pick-6. However a MSU player snuck up on his blindside and punched the ball out short of the goal line. Michigan State recovered the ball in the endzone, gaining them 4 yards on the play and would score an 80yd rushing touchdown on the next. So it goes. Next week is basically the last chance for Maryland to reach a bowl. They hit the road to play Indiana before facing Ohio State and Penn State. Pray that the trend continues. Wicked_UMD
11. BYE manofruber
12. There really was nothing to say about the Illini game 2 weeks ago against Maryland. Last week was a whole new game and we would have won 55-17 if the second team didn't allow 2 garbage time TDs. Nonetheless, this was probably the most complete game I have seen from the Illini. Our offense exploded for 646 yards with Reggie Corbin and AJ Bush contributing all but 92 of the yards. On defense however, we allowed 436 yards which really isn't an improvement with Lovie as the play caller. Yes there were blitzes and packages other than a boring Cover 2, but our linebackers and DTs are too inexperienced and continuously missed tackles, mis read the offense and failed to adjust to the playcall. This defense is not ready for prime time play and will need to grow and mature to compete at a high level week after week. Nebraska next week scares me, especially with the way their offense has been playing. But in the end, all hope is not lost, at least until Saturday. the_reddit_intern
13. No offense to the Illini but that was embarrassing on so many levels. I feel like a broken record with these losses, giving up huge plays repeatedly is killing us. There is not much to highlight on the Minnesota side of the ball in this one, the one optimistic point is the firing of defensive coordinator Robb Smith. I've been calling for it for a couple of weeks now, however I assumed due to the friendship between Fleck and Smith that it wouldn't happen until the end of the season. Nice to see Fleck make the hard decisions. Our schedule does not get any easier, so interim DC Joe Rossi and Fleck have some scheming to do if they want to at least match years win total. kShnarsty
14. Good teams win, great teams cover. And this past Saturday, Rutgers was a great team (at least for bettors who took them to cover the -29 spread). Screw that shark making tons of money betting against Rutgers in Vegas earlier in the season. Blink for a second, and what do you know, Rutgers is now a decent 4-5 on covering the spread this season. Anyway, enough of my NJ self-loathing. This Rutgers performance was what fans were expecting all year. Solid and competitive against top teams, that's all we were asking for. Sure, Wisconsin isn't the playoff hopeful they were at season start, but this is still a really good football team, though "One Horni Boi" played poorly. And sure, the 14 point margin occurred only with 1 minute left in the game, but I'll take it. It was a breakout performance for RB Raheen Blackshear, who caught 8 passes for 152 yards and a TD. QB Art Sitkowski actually played "Lit-kowski" with a 261 yards and 1 TD, and importantly, no turnovers for the second straight game. Hopefully we play a solid game against Michigan, who beat us a by a super embarrassing 78-0 score the last time they played us in Piscataway. MRC1986
Points are the summation of every voter's ranking for that team, therefore lower scores are better. This works because unlike the AP, Coaches, or /cfb polls, every team is ranked in every vote. If x votes were counted, the best possible score is x and the worst possible score is 14x. #1 votes are in parentheses.
Average Rank is the points divided by the number of votes. This will allow for comparison from one week to the next.
Prev. is the Rank from the previous week.
Change is the change in average rank from the previous week.
Variance is a measure of how much agreement there was between voters. A zero means all voters ranked a team the same, and a higher number means a team's ranking was more controversial.
I will always remove obvious spam votes from the poll. I also remove votes that were obviously unfair to one or more teams in a negative way. I chose to leave homer votes that were otherwise fair alone. The "Pretty Graphs" include the votes that were excluded from the poll. Voters may have ties in their rankings.
Previous Results
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Michigan vs. Indiana Football Preview - 2 Minute Drill Michigan State at Indiana - Thursday 1/23/20 - College Basketball Predictions Winning Free Picks College Football Betting Show (College Football 2019-2020 Bowls Picks and Predictions) How To Bet The Gator Bowl With Expert Picks: Indiana vs Tennessee CBS Sports HQ College Football: Michigan State Spartans at Michigan Wolverines Preview Picks

The Michigan State Spartans (14-4) visit the Indiana Hoosiers (14-4) Thursday at Assembly Hall in Bloomington, Ind. The Big Ten battle tips off at 8:30 p.m. ET. We analyze the Michigan State-Indiana odds and betting lines, with college basketball betting advice and tips around this matchup. Trends, Pick and Prediction: Spread: Indiana +9.5. Over/Under: 53.5. Odds Shark currently have the Wolverines winning the game by a projected score of 32-27, with Indiana covering the spread and ... Vegas Betting Preview & Game Odds: Michigan State vs Indiana. Indiana improved to 3-1 on the season overall last weekend, beating Connecticut 38-3 at home after a tough loss to Ohio State in Week 3. The Hoosiers jumped out to a 17-3 lead in the first half and cruised to victory from there, outscoring the Huskies 21-o over the final two quarters. We can tell you Sallee is backing Michigan (-9) to cover the spread in a Big Ten battle at Indiana. Michigan boasts one of the nation's top defenses, giving up an average of 16.4 points and 261.6 ... Michigan State vs. Indiana Odds, Sharp Betting Pick. Spread: Michigan State -3.5; Over/under: 142.5; Time: 8:30 p.m. ET; TV: FS1; Often a simple comparison between opening and current lines will give a fair glimpse into how sharps are viewing a game. That wouldn’t exactly be helpful in this case, though.

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Michigan vs. Indiana Football Preview - 2 Minute Drill

The in-state rivalry between the Michigan Wolverines and the Michigan State Spartans is one that dates back over a century. Though much of those 100-plus years of battles have tilted towards the ... In this episode of The College Football Betting Show for the remaining 2019-2020 Bowls (December 30-January 13)The Prez, Dave Cokin, and Teddy Covers give out their college football picks and ... Direct from Las Vegas, the WagerTalk handicapping crew look at the Vegas odds and give their College Basketball picks and predictions on the Friday night Big 10 matchup from Carver-Hawkeye Arena ... Alabama Crimson Tide vs Michigan Wolverines Predictions and Odds 2020 Citrus Bowl Picks and Spread - Duration: 4:46. WagerTalk TV: Sports Picks and Betting Tips 4,941 views 4:46 NCAAF Picks (12-27-19) 2019 Bowl Games College Football Predictions & Betting Lines Vegas Odds by Brock Page Productions. 10:37. ... Michigan vs Indiana (2019) Prediction NCAAF Week 13 ...

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