We're officially 2 months out from the Iowa caucuses which begin primary voting for 2020. Here are the current odds on Bovada for the most "relevant" candidates:
Donald Trump+125
Joe Biden+550
Pete Buttigieg+650
Elizabeth Warren+800
Bernie Sanders+850
Michael Bloomberg+1600
Andrew Yang+2000
Hillary Clinton+3000
Mike Pence+4000
Amy Klobuchar+5000
Nikki Haley+5000
Tulsi Gabbard+6000
Kamala Harris+8000
In my opinion, just as in 2016, Democratic voters will not turn out for a candidate *just* to oppose Trump - so a status quo candidate such as Biden or Buttigieg would struggle against an incumbent with a very strong base and high satisfaction rate amongst Republicans. Warren's flip-flopping on healthcare over the past 1-2 month has cut her support by double-digits in some polls. The highest turnout from the left will likely occur with a candidate with the strongest base, which in 2020 is Sanders (65% of his supporters are fully committed to him, with 47% fully committed to Warren, 40% for Buttigieg and Biden with only 36%, according to Emerson polling). Incumbents often win elections, and because of Trump's very strong base and high job satisfaction amongst Republicans set him up for a swift victory against any moderate Dem uninspiring to the Dem base. In a battle of populist candidates, I think the move is putting the same amount of money on Trump +125 and Sanders +850. IMO, that's great value for Sanders who is polling second in early primary states just behind Biden. If he were to win the nom, you're in great shape with +850. If someone else grabs the Dem nomination, you should feel pretty safe with a Trump victory. Thoughts? TLDR: Bet Sanders +850 and hedge with Trump +125 for same amount
Conservative S.E. Cupp on CNN today speculated that Congresswoman Marsha Blackburn would be a good fit as VP for Trump Blackburn is telegenic, good on TV, female -- also she said she would be open to VP At 100-1 odds on Sportsbook.ag, might be worth a punt There are others that look attractive odds as well, particularly on the Republican side -- https://www.sportsbook.ag/sbk/sportsbook4/politics-betting/2016-us-elections-republican-vice-president-nomination.sbk edit -- she's not even listed on PaddyPower, which goes up to 100/1 odds on this wager - "others on request" -- 33/1 at Ladbrokes apparently, from Oddschecker edit 2 -- Bovada just added her at 33/1 after I requested odds on her
Politics Odds and Futures Bovada. Total votes tabulated by the Federal Election Commission for all states and the District of Columbia. And with that, online sportsbook Bovada has released odds on who will be the next Republican presidential candidate. Trump is the Runaway Favorite. To the surprise of absolutely nobody, Donald Trump is a prohibitive betting favorite for this market at -900. Odds on the Republican Nominee for the 2020 Election according to Bovada Sportsbook. Updated on May 25, 2020. US Presidential Election 2020 - Republican Candidate Donald Trump -3000 Mike Pence +1500 Nikki Haley +5000 Mitt Romney +6000 Paul Ryan +10000 John Kasich +15000. Odds on the Republican Nominee for the 2020 Election according to Bovada Sportsbook On Bovada, Pence has +2500 odds to win the Republican Party nomination and +12500 to win the presidential election. With $100 bets on each, returns would be $2,500 and $12,500, respectively. While these are great returns, it is not likely Pence will even be a real option come 2020. Top 5 Reasons Mike Pence’s Chances Of Winning Are Real Her odds improved significantly from +2300 on December 14th to +1700 on January 10th. Nov. 7, 2018: Trump’s odds to win the 2020 Presidential Election jumped from +100 to +110 hours after the Republicans lost the House of Representatives in the US Midterm Elections.
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