Can You Make Money Through A Forex Trading App Here In ...
Can You Make Money Through A Forex Trading App Here In ...
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Hi, I'm new into Forex and I have some questions. (sorry for bad grammar but I'm not good in English)
Hi, I live in Portugal where making 800€ its an "decent" amount of money per mouth. I'm not rich, but I'm not poor either but I'm a bit limited about the deposit volume. I can't give 1000€ and to speak frenkly I'm looking for a good broker with a good laverage where I can spend about 10€ - 100€ max. Like a said, I'm new, I'm a student and I hope someday I will make a living with forex. I know it's a lot of work, I don't know what strategies I'm looking for or what indicators are usefull or not, the only strategie I know so far is the how to identify a trend. I'm curious about all the groups on Instagram about courses, but I like to think that I'm not that dumb and I don't want do fall in a scam choosing a wrong "guru". I have some books to read about forex but again, I don't know if they are good or "modern". So, my questions are: . Is there a good broker with a honest laverage for someone who can only spend 100€ max? . What are the main strategies to study first? . What's better, 1min trade? Day trades? Months trade? . Are robot are actually good and if yes, how to install? . Are copy trading actually legit?? Thanks for the time spend reading my problems and sorry again for the bad English.
Complying to a scammer, but not quite the way he wanted me to!
(To any moderator, I have anonymitised everything and made sure that it is according to rules of this subreddit,I wanna share this story so please let me know should further editing be required ! please Consider this person has likely stolen thousands and thousands of innocent people so i wanna spread awareness! So the other day (actually my birthday too :)) I found this account on IG, I saved him as Scumm in my phone but he claims to be an "Alex", hit him up if you wanna get rich it is a fiest. So i hit him up and be like: [19:00, 23/09/2020] OP: Hello sir I am Tom, I read a lot of things about Forex and crypto and your page in particular and just inherited some money from a relative , I heard so many good things I thought you might help me invest some of that money so it is not lost? Kindly [19:08, 23/09/2020] Scumm: Ok [19:08, 23/09/2020] Scumm: Welcome [19:08, 23/09/2020] Scumm: Where are you from? [19:09, 23/09/2020] OP: Germany [19:09, 23/09/2020] Scumm: Ok Tom [19:09, 23/09/2020] Scumm: We specialise on Stock And cryptocurrency trading, with the sole aim of making awesome profit from the rapid changes in price of the assets and currencies we trade. We are group of professional market analysts that studies the market picking the best assets to invest on, and as well the best cryptocurrency pairs to trade on. We have mastered risk management and as well best possible strategy to maximize our clients Profits [19:10, 23/09/2020] Scumm: With the minimum investment of 1 BTC you can make 3.8BTC in a month [19:11, 23/09/2020] Scumm: If I may ask do you have a Bitcoin Wallet address? Now you can see how this is a scam and no one should ever follow such ludicrous claims! 380% in a month, if sb knew how, they wouldnt share that ,not in this world, not in this century... So i amlike: [19:15, 23/09/2020] OP: I'd be willing to invest even 2 bitcoin but I would need your company credentials and iban to send money to [19:19, 23/09/2020] Scumm: I can only provide you a US account to make payment [19:19, 23/09/2020] Scumm: This if gonna be possible [19:19, 23/09/2020] OP: Hmm I'll see maybe that works [19:19, 23/09/2020] OP: Easiest would be IBAN [19:19, 23/09/2020] OP: Your company does not have any European bank accounts? [19:19, 23/09/2020] Scumm: IBAN [19:20, 23/09/2020] Scumm: Mate I always follow procedures so I have not accept Transfer for deposit [19:20, 23/09/2020] Scumm: But I will see to that ok You see where this is going I want some info and make him believe he or one of his mules at least gets sweet sweet cash. NOT SO FAST [20:49, 23/09/2020] Scumm: I’m waiting on my Colleague to forward details to me now [20:49, 23/09/2020] Scumm: Ok so you are not sending today? [20:49, 23/09/2020] OP: Thank u so much [20:49, 23/09/2020] OP: I can try but I have to call bank [20:49, 23/09/2020] OP: For over 1000 [20:50, 23/09/2020] Scumm: Ok ok mate [20:50, 23/09/2020] Scumm: Good [21:08, 23/09/2020] Scumm: XXXXXX XXXXXXXX XXX Bank Account number: 8XXXXX0 Sort code: XXXX IBAN: GBXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX [21:08, 23/09/2020] Scumm: Are you there Mate? [22:43, 23/09/2020] OP: Yes hi thank u so much [22:43, 23/09/2020] OP: Let me chdck [22:46, 23/09/2020] Scumm: Ok mate [22:53, 23/09/2020] Scumm: Are you trying to send it now mate? Spinning it furtherly: I just tell some yada yada about how it takes time and a signature since its such a large sum! [11:46, 24/09/2020] OP: Do you have license [11:46, 24/09/2020] Scumm: 25BTC too small for even my students 😂 /\SURE buddy! */* [11:46, 24/09/2020] OP: NASAA 67? [11:47, 24/09/2020] OP: For financial advisor [11:50, 24/09/2020] OP: This [11:50, 24/09/2020] OP: Sorry was upside down [11:50, 24/09/2020] OP: ? [11:51, 24/09/2020] Scumm: I’m an independent expert trader and portfolio management in crypto market [11:52, 24/09/2020] Scumm: License only met to give out from head of Admin [11:52, 24/09/2020] OP: Ah kk [11:52, 24/09/2020] Scumm: Yes mate [11:52, 24/09/2020] OP: But normally 67 and 68 is required [11:52, 24/09/2020] OP: For normal managers? [11:53, 24/09/2020] Scumm: Yes [11:55, 24/09/2020] Scumm: have no worries mate [11:55, 24/09/2020] Scumm: 100% Now this is quite interesting NASAA 65 and 66 are licenses needed to be an account manager in the US so if he was he should know that i just made up 67 and 68! [19:20, 24/09/2020] OP: Ill makethe first payment asap, but i cant make my bank go faster sorry [19:21, 24/09/2020] OP: howeverone thing: [19:21, 24/09/2020] OP: most of the moneyigotis still in USD isit possible u said invest and send to USbank too? [19:21, 24/09/2020] OP: for 20kUSD and above [19:22, 24/09/2020] OP: its hard for me topurhcase that much bitcoin on my own right now [19:22, 24/09/2020] OP: but i see that i can trust you! [19:22, 24/09/2020] Scumm: Mate ASAP you said you make payment today and you didn’t so I don’t know if you even sure about this yet [19:23, 24/09/2020] Scumm: I don’t get you please [19:23, 24/09/2020] Scumm: You mean you want your profit sent to a US bank? [19:24, 24/09/2020] Scumm: You have no worries about that mate [19:24, 24/09/2020] OP: I am [19:24, 24/09/2020] OP: I signed the paper mate I am so happy [19:24, 24/09/2020] OP: That's all they need I told u [19:24, 24/09/2020] OP: To make payments international so large [19:24, 24/09/2020] Scumm: Yeah you said that mate [19:24, 24/09/2020] OP: I am beeing honest as well [19:24, 24/09/2020] OP: So I sent it back by post Today [19:24, 24/09/2020] Scumm: Ok mate [19:25, 24/09/2020] OP: But I am not at my banks city so post takes 1-2 days and then they can release [19:25, 24/09/2020] OP: Sorry to keep u waiting [19:25, 24/09/2020] Scumm: Ok mate [19:25, 24/09/2020] Scumm: Oh I see [19:25, 24/09/2020] OP: No what I meant: if I wanna start with more can j invest 20k USD too? I know u usually don't do and j ask very weird questions but I meant [19:25, 24/09/2020] OP: I am not always home have pc etc but I am in contact with u and my bank [19:26, 24/09/2020] OP: So is it possible? Otherwise I have to convert USD to euro or GDP [19:26, 24/09/2020] OP: 40k is sill in USD I have [19:26, 24/09/2020] OP: That would be even crazier profits 🤑🤑🤑 [19:27, 24/09/2020] Scumm: Now I’m understanding SO NOW HE IS UNDERSTANDING good good, and almost ready to screw one of his US mules too: [21:00, 24/09/2020] Scumm: Ok mate [21:04, 24/09/2020] Scumm: Can they send from US to the IBAN account? [21:05, 24/09/2020] OGOP: Hm I don't know it's a bit tricky BC I'm no us citizen [21:05, 24/09/2020] OGOP: I have one iban authorised to cash all out in euro [21:05, 24/09/2020] Scumm: Ok ok mate [21:06, 24/09/2020] OP: And US I think right now [21:06, 24/09/2020] Scumm: Ok mate please hold [21:10, 24/09/2020] OP Sure man [21:11, 24/09/2020] OP: Uff such a huge step for me [21:11, 24/09/2020] OP: I hope u do it real good 🤑🤑🤑 [21:12, 24/09/2020] OP Do you have customers in US too? [21:12, 24/09/2020] Scumm: Bank name: Teachers Federal Credit Union Bank address: XXXXXXX Account holder: XXXXXXXXXXXXXX Account Holders address: XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX XXXX Routing Number: XXXXXXX Account number:XXXXXXXXXX [21:12, 24/09/2020] Scumm: Sure mate //SO HE CLAIMS TO HAVE SCAMMED US CITIZENS! [21:12, 24/09/2020] OP: Nice [21:12, 24/09/2020] Scumm: Please make sure you send confirmation immediately So finally I did not send him payment proof,I sent him a spoofed link to fetch his IP with a link to "payment proof" and got his IP and location (cant showr a real link bc it has my IP in it...) And was like " oh hey how is the whether in Irele, Nigeria??" Needless to say he blocked me straight away after I called him a disgraceful sc*m but hey..... I still called the corresponding banks, the UK Fraud Action and the FBI just to make sure and shared all of the details without any editting :) Have fun "mate"! If they can freeze only 1 $ and return it to a likely victim, I am more then happy Cheers dont get scammed! TL/DR: Scammed a Nigerian scammer into sending me real accounts, names and details in UK and US (mules) to forward to the police and may or may not have donated 500 to charity.
Hello! I am new to the general spectrum of e-commerce and passive income. This will be a relatively long post, so you can understand my situation. I am 18 years old and live in a dorm at Georgia State University in downtown Atlanta. I'm interested in passive income, because a life goal of mine is to be financially sustainable without that dreadful and desperate struggle to stay afloat. I've worked in a restaurant/bar and Chick-Fil-A. I like to take opportunities to grow and I'm an extremely hard worker who's tackled many personal challenges, but these experiences always ended up d r e a d f u l for my mental health. I wish I could adapt to the physical job norm, but my personality strengths don't align with that particular field. I am currently studying business at Georgia State and have a good head start. I also have a good amount of savings in my bank account, setting me up for my journey. I am hoping to have some form of reliable income by the end of the school year in May. I have a passion to devoting myself to this work ONLY if it pays. This situation could be even more perfect for me considering my girlfriends dad owns his own small marketing company and has some decently large clients. My girlfriend's parents are also great friends with a man who literally went from dirt poor to being able to support a large family and more through marketing and he owns his own company and offers marketing internships from his company to GSU students. To reiterate, I have nothing but time, savings, and extreme hard work to make passive income pay off and there is nothing I want more than that financial freedom from terrible jobs for people my age. I will devote my time, but only if it is worth it. Here is where I need help. I don't want to end up spending all my money instead of using it for larger gain. I'm all for using money to grow, but I don't know where to go from there. Where should my research and time be allocated in this case? I've researched hours and hours of different sources such as Forex day trading (even my friend is making decent profits with Forex from some like $200 dollar course?!?!), and drop shipping, but seem to hit a brick wall with how much I know on the subject. Do I sacrifice more hours learning youtube and various different forms or income, or do I sacrifice more hours in one particular course or subject? I am VERY on the fence when it comes to these kinds of decisions, only because I want to make the right one. I'm fine with slowly losing a little money to gain experience, but a payment like that sure seems like a leap of faith(right?). I don't necessarily understand how to explain this business model either. I feel scared to talk about it because I understand how the profits occur, but it is the difficult talents you must possess that I do not have. I want to be able to talk about my business pursuit with my parents and have full knowledge and confidence in that what I'm doing is right. The businesses you can start through passive income are possible to be profitable, but how often does that happen and is it REALISTIC that my time I invest into this is worth it? I would hate to throw away a fantastic economic opportunity. I just need to know what direction I should be going towards considering my connections and situation. I lack the confidence to jump in, as I understand I must gain more knowledge. Another issue I face is I need to know where my knowledge and studying should be allocated. I need to know what works and how I can get there. I believe I am capable of anything as I am an extremely high achiever and have always worked hard on the things I'm passionate about. Thinking about my loved ones I'm doing this for only motivates me more and I want to prove to others that I can persevere. If you read this entire thread.. thank you so much for your time. I promise you you've found the correct and capable person, but where do I go from here? I don't mean to sound cocky in any way shape or form, as I am just very ready to take initiative of my extra time so I don't wait around until I get a potentially crap job with low pay. I appreciate this community and I'm looking forward to hopefully getting to build connections and grow. Lastly- I would love links, video advice, emails, and anything else to help out my education on this! Again, thank you so much and have a wonderful day.
The only way you can make money off Kuvera is off of the referral aspect. You aren’t gonna make any money off it after paying $400 CAD initial fee and a $200 monthly fee. The mentors are just gonna tell you how great Kuvera is but never actually teach you anything about trading. The videos are basically the same shit you find on YouTube or maybe even worse. The “travel benefit” is complete bs because it’s basically deals from kayak and other websites just put on another website. It’s a complete waste of time and money, and trust me theyre gonna act very influential and what not but alll they want us your money and to leave you to the wolves. If you want to learn forex, read books, watch yt videos and take advantage of all the free resources. Even the alerts are meant to make you lose, there are no professionals in the company, just people who entered the team and learned from the scammer himself Rakan Khalifa. Stay away from pyramid schemes such as Kuvera. They portray to make you get rich quick or increase your wealth but in reality they just want you to waste it. Remember nobody but yourself can make you rich, and Kuvera will make it seem as if they can make you rich. These guys have been scamming students across GTA, don’t be one of the students to fall in their trap.
9 Ideas to Make Money Online From Home One of the best ways to generate a good income nowadays is to make money online, from home. This sounds amazing, it will help you generate the extra income you need to enjoy an amazing life. There will always be challenges as you try to make money from home, but the results can be staggering if you plan accordingly and focus on the best results and experience. The truth is that once you start connecting to various ways that help you make money online, things end up being a lot easier. But how can you achieve that? You just need to follow some of the ideas listed below, and they can make a huge difference all the time thanks to that.
1. Start a Social E-Commerce Business
This is a new but mature business model by sharing products to your social media and gain instant sales at home. But speaking of doing business at home, it sounds impossible for those who have no experience in this field. The complexity of managing stores online or the high learning curve is an invisible wall to those who want to give it a try. Barriers like an initial investment, time, skills and knowledge of doing business via the internet stop people from even stepping into the field of the business world. However, there is an online platform called WED2C that is able to remove all these barriers and helps people to earn money by selling products online at home. It has a low threshold to learn and everyone with internet can start making money immediately. From student to retired people, if you have a passion for making money at home, then you should give it a try. WED2C stands for “We Direct to Customer”, which means you sell the products directly to the customer by skipping all the complex processes involved in the traditional business model. You don’t have to worry about finding supplier, renting a warehouse, hiring customer service team because WED2C provides all the services and all you need is to advertise the product you are going to sell from WED2C.
2. Start a Dropshipping Business
https://preview.redd.it/tixr06vi0ms51.png?width=1200&format=png&auto=webp&s=c229c427b68dcd955021cba20bc8c7866de076d1 The main idea behind dropshipping is that you create your own store and find a product supplier that will handle all orders and ship them properly. That means you just have to handle your store, the supplier will help you with everything else. It’s one of the best and simplest ways to make money online right now. On top of that, you have a variety of different options to pursue, and the experience itself can be a pretty impressive one. You just have to take that into account for the best results, and you will appreciate the outcome all the time. Finding the right supplier can be challenging, since you need a professional supplier that has a lot of experience in the industry. A company like CJ Dropshipping gives you a lot of experience in this field, and the value is always among some of the best on the market. What really matters is to ensure that the supplier can fulfil all your orders. Once you know that the supplier can connect to WooCommerce, Shopify, Shopee or Lazada, things will be a whole lot easier. The most important aspect is making sure that you generate a good income, and if you manage it correctly, nothing can stand in your way. It will lead to an incredible experience and outstanding results. One thing to consider when it comes to dropshipping is the complexity of your store. When you want to make money online this way, a very good idea is to start working on a smaller store and then up the ante from there. It certainly helps quite a lot, especially if you are great at marketing. Experiment with a product, then go onward with the others and you will be more than ok every time. Dropshipping tips: · Pick the right supplier and focus on quality, that’s how you will be making more repeat sales · Try to sell things that are different. If you sell the same stuff as your competitors, things will be a lot harder. · Focus on a niche, it helps you generate better results and the value will be great in the long term · Cash in on the seasonal merchandise, it comes in handy and you will find that it works very well during that specific season. · Offering product bundles is a great idea, it comes in handy and it will generate more value for customers. · Always provide the best customer service that you can. People expect assistance and support from you, provide that and they will be happy. Just try to take all of that into consideration for the best results.
3. Day Trading
Trading on the Forex market and stock markets, in general, is a very good idea if you have knowledge in this field. But don’t expect to just enter the market and become a millionaire. You can make money online this way, but the truth is that you need patience and a lot of focus. It does take time and effort to become great on the stock market. First, you need to learn the ropes, you need to see when and how stocks tend to increase or decrease in value. You want to make sure that you avoid any possible issues that can arise, and you also need to focus on generating the best possible approach naturally. It helps a lot if you focus on growth and you know what you are getting into. Accessing the best systems in place can really help you more than you might imagine, and in the end that can be an incredible experience. Try to use that system adequately and remember to practice. Many stock websites where you can start trading have a practice tool for virtual trading. You should use something like that all the time, as it gives you a good idea of what you can expect and what results you can obtain. It might not seem like a whole lot, but it will make a difference and that’s exactly what you want to go for.
4. Sell Your Photos
If you love taking pictures, then it makes sense to start earning online via selling pictures. There are a lot of stock photo websites that you can use to showcase your work and sell images there. It can help a lot, and you will be incredibly impressed with the value and experience every time. It’s imperative to know what you are getting into here however. That means you need to invest money in a good camera and you want to have proper editing software too. Most of the time you can’t sell pictures without editing them to make sure that they look perfect. Thankfully, there are a plethora of cameras out there, although you may want to get a DSLR unit since these are offering the best quality and clarity that you may need. It’s important to take your time with this and adjust accordingly for the best results. On top of that, you also want to find a website where you can sell your images. Websites like Getty Images, Shuttershock or Photoshelter are a great option, and they will provide you with a rather impressive experience and lots of value for money. Once you do that and create great pictures, you are good to go.
5. Copywriting
Copywriting is the art of promoting businesses through the power of words. You can make a substantial amount of money with the right business contracts and knowledge. Again, this is the type of work that requires a lot of attention from your side, and plenty of work. You will need to take some courses and find the right way to accumulate money online. It has the potential to really take things to the next level, if you do it right. The great thing about copywriting is that this is a great freelancing topic and one that will bring in a very good return on investment if you tackle it correctly. You can also work with companies from all over the world too. It doesn’t matter, as long as they need English copywriting and you are vetted in that field, you will be good to go. Just focus on that, and you will find yourself getting a much better return on investment than you realize. Make sure that you always improve and brush up your skills for the best results, that’s what will give you amazing results in the end. It’s also possible to focus on proofreading or editing if you have these skills.
6. Online Tutoring/Create Your Own Course
Teaching other people about topics that you already mastered sounds great, and it can be very lucrative from a financial standpoint. The best thing you can do here is to take your time, study the market and see how you can tackle everything in a proper manner. Ideally, you want to make sure that you find the right tutoring jobs, so try to advertise on a variety of tutoring websites like Tutors.com or Tutorme.com. There are a lot of tutoring opportunities, and you can cover English, other languages or more specialized topics. It’s also a good idea to create your own online course on a platform like Udemy. That helps a lot because it allows you to showcase your skills and teach people, while also being able to make money online passively. Yes, here you just need to record yourself, edit the videos and then upload the content. You will be making money for every view you receive, and that’s really helpful. You will certainly appreciate the results and value provided this way, and the quality certainly shines thanks to that. It’s one of those things that you do not want to miss.
7. Write Your Own Ebook and Publish It Online
Ebooks are a hot commodity, a lot of people love reading them, and if you write great ebooks you can make quite a lot of money. The best thing that you can do is to take your time, create high-quality ebooks and publish them on Barnes and Noble, Amazon or any other similar website. The challenge here is that you will find a lot of books on that topic, so the best approach is to take your time and pick the right topic, something that you can’t find anywhere else. A great, unique ebook can sell quite well if you price it properly. The truth is that people want to learn something new all the time, or they just want to unwind and read a relaxing book. Just try to make sure that you pick the right ideas and create an enticing, unique book. Once you do that, things will be a whole lot easier, and that’s exactly what you want to go for in a situation like this.
9. Start a Blog
Yes, blogging can be very lucrative and you can make money online with it. The truth is that blogging can give you a really good return on investment, especially if you stick to it. Granted, it will take some time to build up a great blog, but if you know how to do it properly and work hard to achieve it, you will get there. Blogging is cool because you get to write about anything you want. It’s your own little space on the internet where you can share ideas, educate others and inform them. You can place ads on your blog to make money online, or you can start affiliate marketing. Basically, here you promote products created by others in your content and when people buy that item you get paid a commission. It’s one of the best options on the market to make money online from home, and it totally works for most people. On your blog you can also have paid posts from other people, you can also sell your own ebook or any other item like that. It works nicely and people love this system because it brings in front a very good set of ideas. You do want to check it out for yourself, and the payoff can be great.
9. Run a YouTube Channel
Posting videos on YouTube is also very lucrative. The truth is that you can get a very good return on investment just by enjoying the games and having fun. It’s a very cool, fun game to enjoy and you can have an extraordinary ROI if you handle it the right way. That means posting content almost daily, finding a lot of great ideas for your audience, communicating with them and also helping them as needed. There are multiple methods to make money on YouTube, that can be from advertising, from sponsorships or via selling your own products if you want. You’re also not limited when it comes to what you want to talk about. You just need to be consistent, stick to the YouTube guidelines and just provide good value. It can be well worth it.
Conclusion
As you can see, there are tons of ways to make money online. You just need to find the right option to suit your needs and the payoff can be great in the long run. We recommend you to use these tips if you’re looking to make money online. Just make sure that you stick to it, take your time and you will be incredibly impressed with how much you can earn just via working from home!
Being forced to be a MLM down-line by my own parents...
Some background - first of all, I'm a midterm college student currently staying at home for obvious reasons. In recent months my parents have pressured me to start making money, saying "You need to start working on financial independence" or something like that. First off I opened an online shop selling my parents' merchandise clothing (they have actual stores for this one tho, no LLR stuff or whatever). Decided to pull out as academic stuff takes over my life. As time and the pandemic rolls on, my parents have started hinting on how lazy I am by refusing to earn money on my own, asking "What do you wanna do in your life then to start earning money ?". When I told them I can't restart the online shop just yet because of my college, they then said "okay, we understand your situation" ... Oh, how wrong I was. Shortly thereafter my mother got ecstatic when she came across an "opportunity" on instagram posted by one of her church friends. We set up a (physical, not that I think its wise) meeting not long after and by the time we arrived I know already - I'm being roped into a MLM by MY OWN PARENTS. For context, the MLM is some sort of forex trading investment company called NET89 I honestly would have refused joining, but with my mother there and my parents' pressure on me I was scared and didn't dare saying 'no' since in this pandemic & amid college sh** I don't have a chance yet to pursue a career, meaning I'm still very much dependent on my parents for sustenance (like most college students where I am - not in the USA, student loans are a foreign concept here). My parents used their personal money to pay for it though. A few months have gone by since, and with me NOT EVEN MENTIONING the MLM to anyone else and flat-out refusing to support the company in any way I decided to pull out the money from my account. My parents got furious at me, saying "What you've done was an obvious loss", "You're being stupid by acting that way", "All companies may as well be MLMs since they ask consumers to promote them" ... Yeah, so ... Here I am. Being involved in an obvious scam because of my parents pulling me in without an option to get out of it whatsoever. What do you think I should do ? How can I get out of this ? FYI ; I wish I could look for a job but like I said before, with my college being super busy right now despite being online (they think students are just slacking around at home, thus churning out assignments at breakneck pace) ... I can't, yet.
(To any moderator, I have anonymitised everything and made sure that it is according to rules of this subreddit,I wanna share this story so please let me know should further editing be required ! please Consider this person has likely stolen thousands and thousands of innocent people so i wanna spread awareness! So the other day (actually my birthday too :)) I found this account on IG, I saved him as Scumm in my phone but he claims to be an "Alex", hit him up if you wanna get rich it is a fiest. So i hit him up and be like:
[19:00, 23/09/2020] OP: Hello sir I am Tom, I read a lot of things about Forex and crypto and your page in particular and just inherited some money from a relative , I heard so many good things I thought you might help me invest some of that money so it is not lost? Kindly [19:08, 23/09/2020] Scumm: Ok [19:08, 23/09/2020] Scumm: Welcome [19:08, 23/09/2020] Scumm: Where are you from? [19:09, 23/09/2020] OP: Germany [19:09, 23/09/2020] Scumm: Ok Tom [19:09, 23/09/2020] Scumm: We specialise on Stock And cryptocurrency trading, with the sole aim of making awesome profit from the rapid changes in price of the assets and currencies we trade. We are group of professional market analysts that studies the market picking the best assets to invest on, and as well the best cryptocurrency pairs to trade on. We have mastered risk management and as well best possible strategy to maximize our clients Profits [19:10, 23/09/2020] Scumm: With the minimum investment of 1 BTC you can make 3.8BTC in a month [19:11, 23/09/2020] Scumm: If I may ask do you have a Bitcoin Wallet address?
Now you can see how this is a scam and no one should ever follow such ludicrous claims! 380% in a month, if sb knew how, they wouldnt share that ,not in this world, not in this century... So i amlike:
[19:15, 23/09/2020] OP: I'd be willing to invest even 2 bitcoin but I would need your company credentials and iban to send money to [19:19, 23/09/2020] Scumm: I can only provide you a US account to make payment [19:19, 23/09/2020] Scumm: This if gonna be possible [19:19, 23/09/2020] OP: Hmm I'll see maybe that works [19:19, 23/09/2020] OP: Easiest would be IBAN [19:19, 23/09/2020] OP: Your company does not have any European bank accounts? [19:19, 23/09/2020] Scumm: IBAN [19:20, 23/09/2020] Scumm: Mate I always follow procedures so I have not accept Transfer for deposit [19:20, 23/09/2020] Scumm: But I will see to that ok You see where this is going I want some info and make him believe he or one of his mules at least gets sweet sweet cash. NOT SO FAST [20:49, 23/09/2020] Scumm: I’m waiting on my Colleague to forward details to me now [20:49, 23/09/2020] Scumm: Ok so you are not sending today? [20:49, 23/09/2020] OP: Thank u so much [20:49, 23/09/2020] OP: I can try but I have to call bank [20:49, 23/09/2020] OP: For over 1000 [20:50, 23/09/2020] Scumm: Ok ok mate [20:50, 23/09/2020] Scumm: Good [21:08, 23/09/2020] Scumm: XXXXXX XXXXXXXX XXX Bank Account number: 8XXXXX0 Sort code: XXXX IBAN: GBXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX [21:08, 23/09/2020] Scumm: Are you there Mate? [22:43, 23/09/2020] OP: Yes hi thank u so much [22:43, 23/09/2020] OP: Let me chdck [22:46, 23/09/2020] Scumm: Ok mate [22:53, 23/09/2020] Scumm: Are you trying to send it now mate?
Spinning it furtherly: I just tell some yada yada about how it takes time and a signature since its such a large sum!
[11:46, 24/09/2020] OP: Do you have license [11:46, 24/09/2020] Scumm: 25BTC too small for even my students 😂 /\SURE buddy! */* [11:46, 24/09/2020] OP: NASAA 67? [11:47, 24/09/2020] OP: For financial advisor [11:50, 24/09/2020] OP: This [11:50, 24/09/2020] OP: Sorry was upside down [11:50, 24/09/2020] OP: ? [11:51, 24/09/2020] Scumm: I’m an independent expert trader and portfolio management in crypto market [11:52, 24/09/2020] Scumm: License only met to give out from head of Admin [11:52, 24/09/2020] OP: Ah kk [11:52, 24/09/2020] Scumm: Yes mate [11:52, 24/09/2020] OP: But normally 67 and 68 is required [11:52, 24/09/2020] OP: For normal managers? [11:53, 24/09/2020] Scumm: Yes [11:55, 24/09/2020] Scumm: have no worries mate [11:55, 24/09/2020] Scumm: 100%
Now this is quite interesting NASAA 65 and 66 are licenses needed to be an account manager in the US so if he was he should know that i just made up 67 and 68!
[19:20, 24/09/2020] OP: Ill makethe first payment asap, but i cant make my bank go faster sorry [19:21, 24/09/2020] OP: howeverone thing: [19:21, 24/09/2020] OP: most of the moneyigotis still in USD isit possible u said invest and send to USbank too? [19:21, 24/09/2020] OP: for 20kUSD and above [19:22, 24/09/2020] OP: its hard for me topurhcase that much bitcoin on my own right now [19:22, 24/09/2020] OP: but i see that i can trust you! [19:22, 24/09/2020] Scumm: Mate ASAP you said you make payment today and you didn’t so I don’t know if you even sure about this yet [19:23, 24/09/2020] Scumm: I don’t get you please [19:23, 24/09/2020] Scumm: You mean you want your profit sent to a US bank? [19:24, 24/09/2020] Scumm: You have no worries about that mate [19:24, 24/09/2020] OP: I am [19:24, 24/09/2020] OP: I signed the paper mate I am so happy [19:24, 24/09/2020] OP: That's all they need I told u [19:24, 24/09/2020] OP: To make payments international so large [19:24, 24/09/2020] Scumm: Yeah you said that mate [19:24, 24/09/2020] OP: I am beeing honest as well [19:24, 24/09/2020] OP: So I sent it back by post Today [19:24, 24/09/2020] Scumm: Ok mate [19:25, 24/09/2020] OP: But I am not at my banks city so post takes 1-2 days and then they can release [19:25, 24/09/2020] OP: Sorry to keep u waiting [19:25, 24/09/2020] Scumm: Ok mate [19:25, 24/09/2020] Scumm: Oh I see [19:25, 24/09/2020] OP: No what I meant: if I wanna start with more can j invest 20k USD too? I know u usually don't do and j ask very weird questions but I meant [19:25, 24/09/2020] OP: I am not always home have pc etc but I am in contact with u and my bank [19:26, 24/09/2020] OP: So is it possible? Otherwise I have to convert USD to euro or GDP [19:26, 24/09/2020] OP: 40k is sill in USD I have [19:26, 24/09/2020] OP: That would be even crazier profits 🤑🤑🤑 [19:27, 24/09/2020] Scumm: Now I’m understanding SO NOW HE IS UNDERSTANDING good good, and almost ready to screw one of his US mules too: [21:00, 24/09/2020] Scumm: Ok mate [21:04, 24/09/2020] Scumm: Can they send from US to the IBAN account? [21:05, 24/09/2020] OGOP: Hm I don't know it's a bit tricky BC I'm no us citizen [21:05, 24/09/2020] OGOP: I have one iban authorised to cash all out in euro [21:05, 24/09/2020] Scumm: Ok ok mate [21:06, 24/09/2020] OP: And US I think right now [21:06, 24/09/2020] Scumm: Ok mate please hold [21:10, 24/09/2020] OP Sure man [21:11, 24/09/2020] OP: Uff such a huge step for me [21:11, 24/09/2020] OP: I hope u do it real good 🤑🤑🤑 [21:12, 24/09/2020] OP Do you have customers in US too? [21:12, 24/09/2020] Scumm: Bank name: Teachers Federal Credit Union Bank address: XXXXXXX Account holder: XXXXXXXXXXXXXX Account Holders address: XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX XXXX Routing Number: XXXXXXX Account number:XXXXXXXXXX [21:12, 24/09/2020] Scumm: Sure mate //SO HE CLAIMS TO HAVE SCAMMED US CITIZENS! [21:12, 24/09/2020] OP: Nice [21:12, 24/09/2020] Scumm: Please make sure you send confirmation immediately
So finally I did not send him payment proof,I sent him a spoofed link to fetch his IP with a link to "payment proof" and got his IP and location (cant showr a real link bc it has my IP in it...) And was like " oh hey how is the whether in Irele, Nigeria??" Needless to say he blocked me straight away after I called him a disgraceful sc*m but hey..... I still called the corresponding banks, the UK Fraud Action and the FBI just to make sure and shared all of the details without any editting :) Have fun "mate"! If they can freeze only 1 $ and return it to a likely victim, I am more then happy Cheers dont get scammed! Have a wonderful day! TL/DR: Scammed a Nigerian scammer into sending me real accounts, names and details in UK and US (mules) to forward to the police and may or may not have donated 500 to charity.
No, the British did not steal $45 trillion from India
This is an updated copy of the version on BadHistory. I plan to update it in accordance with the feedback I got. I'd like to thank two people who will remain anonymous for helping me greatly with this post (you know who you are) Three years ago a festschrift for Binay Bhushan Chaudhuri was published by Shubhra Chakrabarti, a history teacher at the University of Delhi and Utsa Patnaik, a Marxist economist who taught at JNU until 2010. One of the essays in the festschirt by Utsa Patnaik was an attempt to quantify the "drain" undergone by India during British Rule. Her conclusion? Britain robbed India of $45 trillion (or £9.2 trillion) during their 200 or so years of rule. This figure was immensely popular, and got republished in several major news outlets (here, here, here, here (they get the number wrong) and more recently here), got a mention from the Minister of External Affairs & returns 29,100 results on Google. There's also plenty of references to it here on Reddit. Patnaik is not the first to calculate such a figure. Angus Maddison thought it was £100 million, Simon Digby said £1 billion, Javier Estaban said £40 million see Roy (2019). The huge range of figures should set off some alarm bells. So how did Patnaik calculate this (shockingly large) figure? Well, even though I don't have access to the festschrift, she conveniently has written an article detailing her methodology here. Let's have a look.
How exactly did the British manage to diddle us and drain our wealth’ ? was the question that Basudev Chatterjee (later editor of a volume in the Towards Freedom project) had posed to me 50 years ago when we were fellow-students abroad.
This is begging the question.
After decades of research I find that using India’s commodity export surplus as the measure and applying an interest rate of 5%, the total drain from 1765 to 1938, compounded up to 2016, comes to £9.2 trillion; since $4.86 exchanged for £1 those days, this sum equals about $45 trillion.
This is completely meaningless. To understand why it's meaningless consider India's annual coconut exports. These are almost certainly a surplus but the surplus in trade is countered by the other country buying the product (indeed, by definition, trade surpluses contribute to the GDP of a nation which hardly plays into intuitive conceptualisations of drain). Furthermore, Dewey (2019) critiques the 5% interest rate.
She [Patnaik] consistently adopts statistical assumptions (such as compound interest at a rate of 5% per annum over centuries) that exaggerate the magnitude of the drain
Moving on:
The exact mechanism of drain, or transfers from India to Britain was quite simple.
Convenient.
Drain theory possessed the political merit of being easily grasped by a nation of peasants. [...] No other idea could arouse people than the thought that they were being taxed so that others in far off lands might live in comfort. [...] It was, therefore, inevitable that the drain theory became the main staple of nationalist political agitation during the Gandhian era.
The key factor was Britain’s control over our taxation revenues combined with control over India’s financial gold and forex earnings from its booming commodity export surplus with the world. Simply put, Britain used locally raised rupee tax revenues to pay for its net import of goods, a highly abnormal use of budgetary funds not seen in any sovereign country.
The issue with figures like these is they all make certain methodological assumptions that are impossible to prove. From Roy in Frankema et al. (2019):
the "drain theory" of Indian poverty cannot be tested with evidence, for several reasons. First, it rests on the counterfactual that any money saved on account of factor payments abroad would translate into domestic investment, which can never be proved. Second, it rests on "the primitive notion that all payments to foreigners are "drain"", that is, on the assumption that these payments did not contribute to domestic national income to the equivalent extent (Kumar 1985, 384; see also Chaudhuri 1968). Again, this cannot be tested. [...] Fourth, while British officers serving India did receive salaries that were many times that of the average income in India, a paper using cross-country data shows that colonies with better paid officers were governed better (Jones 2013).
Indeed, drain theory rests on some very weak foundations. This, in of itself, should be enough to dismiss any of the other figures that get thrown out. Nonetheless, I felt it would be a useful exercise to continue exploring Patnaik's take on drain theory.
The East India Company from 1765 onwards allocated every year up to one-third of Indian budgetary revenues net of collection costs, to buy a large volume of goods for direct import into Britain, far in excess of that country’s own needs.
So what's going on here? Well Roy (2019) explains it better:
Colonial India ran an export surplus, which, together with foreign investment, was used to pay for services purchased from Britain. These payments included interest on public debt, salaries, and pensions paid to government offcers who had come from Britain, salaries of managers and engineers, guaranteed profts paid to railway companies, and repatriated business profts. How do we know that any of these payments involved paying too much? The answer is we do not.
So what was really happening is the government was paying its workers for services (as well as guaranteeing profits - to promote investment - something the GoI does today Dalal (2019), and promoting business in India), and those workers were remitting some of that money to Britain. This is hardly a drain (unless, of course, Indian diaspora around the world today are "draining" it). In some cases, the remittances would take the form of goods (as described) see Chaudhuri (1983):
It is obvious that these debit items were financed through the export surplus on merchandise account, and later, when railway construction started on a large scale in India, through capital import. Until 1833 the East India Company followed a cumbersome method in remitting the annual home charges. This was to purchase export commodities in India out of revenue, which were then shipped to London and the proceeds from their sale handed over to the home treasury.
While Roy's earlier point argues better paid officers governed better, it is honestly impossible to say what part of the repatriated export surplus was a drain, and what was not. However calling all of it a drain is definitely misguided. It's worth noting that Patnaik seems to make no attempt to quantify the benefits of the Raj either, Dewey (2019)'s 2nd criticism:
she [Patnaik] consistently ignores research that would tend to cut the economic impact of the drain down to size, such as the work on the sources of investment during the industrial revolution (which shows that industrialisation was financed by the ploughed-back profits of industrialists) or the costs of empire school (which stresses the high price of imperial defence)
Since tropical goods were highly prized in other cold temperate countries which could never produce them, in effect these free goods represented international purchasing power for Britain which kept a part for its own use and re-exported the balance to other countries in Europe and North America against import of food grains, iron and other goods in which it was deficient.
Re-exports necessarily adds value to goods when the goods are processed and when the goods are transported. The country with the largest navy at the time would presumably be in very good stead to do the latter.
The British historians Phyllis Deane and WA Cole presented an incorrect estimate of Britain’s 18th-19th century trade volume, by leaving out re-exports completely. I found that by 1800 Britain’s total trade was 62% higher than their estimate, on applying the correct definition of trade including re-exports, that is used by the United Nations and by all other international organisations.
While interesting, and certainly expected for such an old book, re-exporting necessarily adds value to goods.
When the Crown took over from the Company, from 1861 a clever system was developed under which all of India’s financial gold and forex earnings from its fast-rising commodity export surplus with the world, was intercepted and appropriated by Britain. As before up to a third of India’s rising budgetary revenues was not spent domestically but was set aside as ‘expenditure abroad’.
So, what does this mean? Britain appropriated all of India's earnings, and then spent a third of it aboard? Not exactly. She is describing home charges see Roy (2019) again:
Some of the expenditures on defense and administration were made in sterling and went out of the country. This payment by the government was known as the Home Charges. For example, interest payment on loans raised to finance construction of railways and irrigation works, pensions paid to retired officers, and purchase of stores, were payments in sterling. [...] almost all money that the government paid abroad corresponded to the purchase of a service from abroad. [...] The balance of payments system that emerged after 1800 was based on standard business principles.India bought something and paid for it.State revenues were used to pay for wages of people hired abroad, pay for interest on loans raised abroad, and repatriation of profits on foreign investments coming into India. These were legitimate market transactions.
Indeed, if paying for what you buy is drain, then several billions of us are drained every day.
The Secretary of State for India in Council, based in London, invited foreign importers to deposit with him the payment (in gold, sterling and their own currencies) for their net imports from India, and these gold and forex payments disappeared into the yawning maw of the SoS’s account in the Bank of England.
It should be noted that India having two heads was beneficial, and encouraged investment per Roy (2019):
The fact that the India Office in London managed a part of the monetary system made India creditworthy, stabilized its currency, and encouraged foreign savers to put money into railways and private enterprise in India. Current research on the history of public debt shows that stable and large colonies found it easier to borrow abroad than independent economies because the investors trusted the guarantee of the colonist powers.
Against India’s net foreign earnings he issued bills, termed Council bills (CBs), to an equivalent rupee value. The rate (between gold-linked sterling and silver rupee) at which the bills were issued, was carefully adjusted to the last farthing, so that foreigners would never find it more profitable to ship financial gold as payment directly to Indians, compared to using the CB route. Foreign importers then sent the CBs by post or by telegraph to the export houses in India, that via the exchange banks were paid out of the budgeted provision of sums under ‘expenditure abroad’, and the exporters in turn paid the producers (peasants and artisans) from whom they sourced the goods.
Sunderland (2013) argues CBs had two main roles (and neither were part of a grand plot to keep gold out of India):
Council bills had two roles. They firstly promoted trade by handing the IO some control of the rate of exchange and allowing the exchange banks to remit funds to India and to hedge currency transaction risks. They also enabled the Indian government to transfer cash to England for the payment of its UK commitments.
The United Nations (1962) historical data for 1900 to 1960, show that for three decades up to 1928 (and very likely earlier too) India posted the second highest merchandise export surplus in the world, with USA in the first position. Not only were Indians deprived of every bit of the enormous international purchasing power they had earned over 175 years, even its rupee equivalent was not issued to them since not even the colonial government was credited with any part of India’s net gold and forex earnings against which it could issue rupees. The sleight-of-hand employed, namely ‘paying’ producers out of their own taxes, made India’s export surplus unrequited and constituted a tax-financed drain to the metropolis, as had been correctly pointed out by those highly insightful classical writers, Dadabhai Naoroji and RCDutt.
It doesn't appear that others appreciate their insight Roy (2019):
K. N. Chaudhuri rightly calls such practice ‘confused’ economics ‘coloured by political feelings’.
Surplus budgets to effect such heavy tax-financed transfers had a severe employment–reducing and income-deflating effect: mass consumption was squeezed in order to release export goods. Per capita annual foodgrains absorption in British India declined from 210 kg. during the period 1904-09, to 157 kg. during 1937-41, and to only 137 kg by 1946.
Dewey (1978) points out reliability issues with Indian agriculutural statistics, however this calorie decline persists to this day. Some of it is attributed to less food being consumed at home Smith (2015), a lower infectious disease burden Duh & Spears (2016) and diversified diets Vankatesh et al. (2016).
If even a part of its enormous foreign earnings had been credited to it and not entirely siphoned off, India could have imported modern technology to build up an industrial structure as Japan was doing.
This is, unfortunately, impossible to prove. Had the British not arrived in India, there is no clear indication that India would've united (this is arguably more plausible than the given counterfactual1). Had the British not arrived in India, there is no clear indication India would not have been nuked in WW2, much like Japan. Had the British not arrived in India, there is no clear indication India would not have been invaded by lizard people, much like Japan. The list continues eternally. Nevertheless, I will charitably examine the given counterfactual anyway. Did pre-colonial India have industrial potential? The answer is a resounding no. From Gupta (1980):
This article starts from the premise that while economic categories - the extent of commodity production, wage labour, monetarisation of the economy, etc - should be the basis for any analysis of the production relations of pre-British India, it is the nature of class struggles arising out of particular class alignments that finally gives the decisive twist to social change. Arguing on this premise, and analysing the available evidence, this article concludes that there was little potential for industrial revolution before the British arrived in India because, whatever might have been the character of economic categories of that period,the class relations had not sufficiently matured to develop productive forces and the required class struggle for a 'revolution' to take place.
Yet all of this did not amount to an economic situation comparable to that of western Europe on the eve of the industrial revolution. Her technology - in agriculture as well as manufacturers - had by and large been stagnant for centuries. [...] The weakness of the Indian economy in the mid-eighteenth century, as compared to pre-industrial Europe was not simply a matter of technology and commercial and industrial organization. No scientific or geographical revolution formed part of the eighteenth-century Indian's historical experience. [...] Spontaneous movement towards industrialisation is unlikely in such a situation.
So now we've established India did not have industrial potential, was India similar to Japan just before the Meiji era? The answer, yet again, unsurprisingly, is no. Japan's economic situation was not comparable to India's, which allowed for Japan to finance its revolution. From Yasuba (1986):
All in all, the Japanese standard of living may not have been much below the English standard of living before industrialization, and both of them may have been considerably higher than the Indian standard of living. We can no longer say that Japan started from a pathetically low economic level and achieved a rapid or even "miraculous" economic growth. Japan's per capita income was almost as high as in Western Europe before industrialization, and it was possible for Japan to produce surplus in the Meiji Period to finance private and public capital formation.
The circumstances that led to Meiji Japan were extremely unique. See Tomlinson (1985):
Most modern comparisons between India and Japan, written by either Indianists or Japanese specialists, stress instead that industrial growth in Meiji Japan was the product of unique features that were not reproducible elsewhere. [...] it is undoubtably true that Japan's progress to industrialization has been unique and unrepeatable
So there you have it. Unsubstantiated statistical assumptions, calling any number you can a drain & assuming a counterfactual for no good reason gets you this $45 trillion number. Hopefully that's enough to bury it in the ground. 1. Several authors have affirmed that Indian identity is a colonial artefact. For example seeRajan 1969:
Perhaps the single greatest and most enduring impact of British rule over India is that it created an Indian nation, in the modern political sense. After centuries of rule by different dynasties overparts of the Indian sub-continent, and after about 100 years of British rule, Indians ceased to be merely Bengalis, Maharashtrians,or Tamils, linguistically and culturally.
But then, it would be anachronistic to condemn eighteenth-century Indians, who served the British, as collaborators, when the notion of 'democratic' nationalism or of an Indian 'nation' did not then exist.[...]Indians who fought for them, differed from the Europeans in having a primary attachment to a non-belligerent religion, family and local chief, which was stronger than any identity they might have with a more remote prince or 'nation'.
Bibliography
Chakrabarti, Shubra & Patnaik, Utsa (2018). Agrarian and other histories: Essays for Binay Bhushan Chaudhuri. Colombia University Press Hickel, Jason (2018). How the British stole $45 trillion from India. The Guardian Bhuyan, Aroonim & Sharma, Krishan (2019). The Great Loot: How the British stole $45 trillion from India. Indiapost Monbiot, George (2020). English Landowners have stolen our rights. It is time to reclaim them. The Guardian Tsjeng, Zing (2020). How Britain Stole $45 trillion from India with trains | Empires of Dirt. Vice Chaudhury, Dipanjan (2019). British looted $45 trillion from India in today’s value: Jaishankar. The Economic Times Roy, Tirthankar (2019). How British rule changed India's economy: The Paradox of the Raj. Palgrave Macmillan Patnaik, Utsa (2018). How the British impoverished India. Hindustan Times Tuovila, Alicia (2019). Expenditure method. Investopedia Dewey, Clive (2019). Changing the guard: The dissolution of the nationalist–Marxist orthodoxy in the agrarian and agricultural history of India. The Indian Economic & Social History Review Chandra, Bipan et al. (1989). India's Struggle for Independence, 1857-1947. Penguin Books Frankema, Ewout & Booth, Anne (2019). Fiscal Capacity and the Colonial State in Asia and Africa, c. 1850-1960. Cambridge University Press Dalal, Sucheta (2019). IL&FS Controversy: Centre is Paying Up on Sovereign Guarantees to ADB, KfW for Group's Loan. TheWire Chaudhuri, K.N. (1983). X - Foreign Trade and Balance of Payments (1757–1947). Cambridge University Press Sunderland, David (2013). Financing the Raj: The City of London and Colonial India, 1858-1940. Boydell Press Dewey, Clive (1978). Patwari and Chaukidar: Subordinate officials and the reliability of India’s agricultural statistics. Athlone Press Smith, Lisa (2015). The great Indian calorie debate: Explaining rising undernourishment during India’s rapid economic growth. Food Policy Duh, Josephine & Spears, Dean (2016). Health and Hunger: Disease, Energy Needs, and the Indian Calorie Consumption Puzzle. The Economic Journal Vankatesh, P. et al. (2016). Relationship between Food Production and Consumption Diversity in India – Empirical Evidences from Cross Section Analysis. Agricultural Economics Research Review Gupta, Shaibal (1980). Potential of Industrial Revolution in Pre-British India. Economic and Political Weekly Raychaudhuri, Tapan (1983). I - The mid-eighteenth-century background. Cambridge University Press Yasuba, Yasukichi (1986). Standard of Living in Japan Before Industrialization: From what Level did Japan Begin? A Comment. The Journal of Economic History Tomblinson, B.R. (1985). Writing History Sideways: Lessons for Indian Economic Historians from Meiji Japan. Cambridge University Press Rajan, M.S. (1969). The Impact of British Rule in India. Journal of Contemporary History Bryant, G.J. (2000). Indigenous Mercenaries in the Service of European Imperialists: The Case of the Sepoys in the Early British Indian Army, 1750-1800. War in History
Is Forex actually simple? Or am I following for social media marketing/scam?
High school student, seeing friends and college students on social media saying how they make enough to quit their part time/full time jobs from forex, when some have only been on it for a few months. Almost all say they are in groups, and people should join to get videos and it’s best to learn with a mentor and a group to share trades. Some try to recruit. Some say although you have to pay, it’s worth it because of what you get to learn. Maybe the answer is obvious, but they can’t all be lying right? I’m talking I’ve seen hundreds-thousands of high school and college students all claim the same thing about forex on social media. I obviously haven’t seen any profit, as in clear money from forex, but I find it insane, but hard to believe that all these people fall under the same umbrella and are lying/spewing hyperboles EDIT: falling for a * in title
Reposting because I didn't get input last time. Demographics: Indian. Male. From ProspeFrisco Texas. Middle/Upper class area. I would say my high school is very competitive. Intended Major(s): Computer Science ACT/SAT/SAT II: SAT: Have not taken a real test. I have taken three practice test all resulted 1440+. Prepping for 1500+, but consider my score to be a flat 1400 for now. UW GPA and Rank: UW: 3.981 Rank: 12/979 Coursework: Freshmen Year: - Honors French 1 (Highest Level that year available to me ) - HonoGT Geometry (Highest Level that year available to me ) - Honors Computer Science 1 - Honors Biology (Highest Level that year available to me ) - AP Human (Highest Level that year available to me ) (4) - Honors English 1 (Highest Level that year available to me ) - Outdoor Education (Required) - Digital Art and Animation (Required) Sophomore Year: - Honors English 2 (Highest Level that year available to me ) - Honors French 2 (Highest Level that year available to me ) - AP Computer Science A (Highest Level that year available to me ) (5) - AP Computer Science Principles (Highest Level that year available to me ) (4) - AP World History (Highest Level that year available to me ) - AP Biology (Highest Level that year available to me ) (3) <-- Not sending this score - Honors Chemistry (Highest Level that year available to me ) - Honors Algebra 2 (Highest Level that year available to me ) - Academic Level Architecture (Highest Level that year available to me ) Junior Year: - AP English 3 (Highest Level that year available to me ) - Independent Studies in Video Games (AP Level but not AP) (Highest Level that year available to me ) - Honors UIL Math Prep - Ap Physics 1 (Highest Level that year available to me ) (5) - Academic Level US History - AP Chemistry (Highest Level that year available to me ) (4) - AP Environmental (Highest Level that year available to me ) (5) - Honors Pre-Cal (Highest Level that year available to me ) Senior Year (will take upcoming year): - Honors Computer Science 3 (Highest Level that year available to me ) - Honors Computer Science 2 (Highest Level that year available to me ) - AP English 4 (Highest Level that year available to me ) - AP Gov/Econ (Highest Level that year available to me ) - AP Physics C (Highest Level that year available to me ) - AP Calc BC (Highest Level that year available to me ) - AP Stats (Highest Level that year available to me ) - Still Deciding but not AP for sure. Awards: - Adobe Certified Associate - Visual Design using Adobe Photoshop CC2015 - Aloha Math Competition Certificate. - UIL Math Competition Certificate. - Multiple Student of the month award Extracurriculars:
I am an intern at Visual Technologies LLC. I have helped in 4 projects regarding computer science for outside companies. This is one of my biggest achievements as a real company was willing to work with me and we ended up doing 4 projects together helping me grow every second of me working with them. After two successful projects with them, I was given some responsibilities such as following up with clients and other things. This gave me a sense of accomplishment because this would mean that they saw qualities in me that they would look for in a “normal aged” programmeconsultant.
2020 - I have worked for Cutco for about 3 months in which I have learned many skills for marketing. I have been promoted and over $3000 in sales. Other details mentioned earlier.
2019-2020- For UIL math we program our calculators to make tests easier for us. Last year I was one of the top coders for UIL math right after my seniors. I made programs that were complex. Although I didn't create many programs, I made programs that other programs were not able to create the year before because they were termed as “too hard”. Me being able to code those programs gave me the stance as a well-known programmer for UIL Math - an achievement in itself.
2016 - 2021 has offered free tutoring to many students who strive to be better but cannot afford fees. I have given at least 80 hours of free tutoring (not for school)
2020 - I have also worked for Ambit and have managed a successful team of over 50 members as I am a regional consultant for the company. I am in the top 10% of the company according to my boss, but I don't know whether this is true or not. I can certainly say that more than half of the people working do not make it to the level I am at. This company is an electricity company, and I have capitalized on selling our service to apartment complexes. I have also helped many high schoolers needing a job to find success in this business.
2020- I volunteered to make a system for the school called “Corona Tutors”. This is a platform where students can anonymously ask questions and receive answers from other students who want service hours. This fixes many problems: this eases the extreme dependence of teachers being online 24/7, this makes sure that students are getting their questions answered, this also allows students who want to help society. This is an official Prosper resource on their webpage which students can use at their will.
2017-2020- I have been a volunteer at ICNA Relief committed about 2 hours each week, and puts me right over 300 hours of community service. We as a group have made a rationing system where we try to fairly distribute goods and other goods as per people's needs. We help with anything from getting food to getting families a laptop for their kid's education.
My love for business goes very far. In 7th grade, fidget spinners were very popular and amazon took 3 months to ship them. This was perfect for a mini business, so I bought a fidget spinner directly through the supplier (AliExpress) and got my shipment. Not only did I retail them I also wholesale them in the mall to any store that was allowed to sell them. I came profitable from this business, but it was not the money that made this great, it was the contact I got through this business. - 2016
2020 - I resold brand new bikes with a high markup. One day scrolling through Facebook marketplace I realized that some bikes were being sold for almost 2x their price at Walmart. (During COVID) I simply contacted my contacts and was able to get about 200-250 brand new bikes. Since this was a very big investment I had five partners with me, and we marked them up according to market price a month later (150% return on investment)
2020 - When school ended, I started to get a lot of Forex trading ads, so I chose to take a look into what it was. Forex trading is a currency exchange and is highly risky. When I started to learn about it I started to see that there were groups called “signal groups”. These groups told you when to trade what and claimed that they have a 99% accuracy on their trades being profitable. Instead of trading, I chose to get in contact with famous traders and offer them a lucrative cut for simply sending a message in a group chat about what they are trading. For one month I tested the service and then put it into action for the public. The program kept working until all traders were able to work and then it was shut off making sure that more one was a loss.
2020 I have written a book/report that I have published it on Amazon. This report took me 200+ hours to make. As we learn in school, there is a rise in global warming, and it is our job to find alternative ways of fuel and stop the rise in global warming. I took an already done research - well in parts in college language- and made it into a more understandable report considering almost every aspect of the situation. I covered everything from the experimental design to how we can use the waste product in everyday life to how we can scale this project to how even a high schooler can make a difference by simply taking initiative and presenting this idea to their school. This report allowed me to take complex language and make it into an everyday language report. I showed my report to many people in the community and it was very satisfying to hear from their parents when they said “my son is going to present this idea to his school because they mostly have a lot of oil”. The report is about converting waste cooking oil to biodiesel.
2015 - 2020 - I have helped my mom in her business called “BLANK (don't want to say) Designs Collection”. Simply by watching her sell and trying it myself I acquired skills that I use to this day not only for business but simply for communicating. Currently, I am a social media and online sales handler for the company.
2018 - 2020 - I have been a part of Mu Alpha Theta for two year tutoring students for Math. Last year I was one of the top tutors for Mrs.Wood for algebra 2. I went there every time I did have an eagle time activity.
2020 - I recently joined the Science Honor society; we have helped the science fair in their activities.
Essays/LORs: Essays, I have not started. Letter of Rec: I have three incoming from my teachers. English/CounseloComputer Science/ Math (waiting for response) Schools: - MIT, - Brown University - Caltech - Carnegie Mellon - Columbia University - Cornell University - Duke University - Georgia Institute - Hamilton - Harvard University - Johns Hopkins University - Princeton University - Purdue University - Rice University - Stanford - UMich - UT Austin - UT Dallas - Texas A&M - UC Berkley
Demographics: Indian. Male. From ProspeFrisco Texas. Middle/Upper class area. I would say my high school is very competitive. Intended Major(s): Computer Science ACT/SAT/SAT II: SAT: Have not taken a real test. I have taken three practice test all resulted 1440+. Prepping for 1500+, but consider my score to be a flat 1400 for now. UW GPA and Rank: UW: 3.981 Rank: 12/979 Coursework: Freshmen Year: - Honors French 1 (Highest Level that year available to me ) - HonoGT Geometry (Highest Level that year available to me ) - Honors Computer Science 1 - Honors Biology (Highest Level that year available to me ) - AP Human (Highest Level that year available to me ) (4) - Honors English 1 (Highest Level that year available to me ) - Outdoor Education (Required) - Digital Art and Animation (Required) Sophomore Year: - Honors English 2 (Highest Level that year available to me ) - Honors French 2 (Highest Level that year available to me ) - AP Computer Science A (Highest Level that year available to me ) (5) - AP Computer Science Principles (Highest Level that year available to me ) (4) - AP World History (Highest Level that year available to me ) - AP Biology (Highest Level that year available to me ) (3) <-- Not sending this score - Honors Chemistry (Highest Level that year available to me ) - Honors Algebra 2 (Highest Level that year available to me ) - Academic Level Architecture (Highest Level that year available to me ) Junior Year: - AP English 3 (Highest Level that year available to me ) - Independent Studies in Video Games (AP Level but not AP) (Highest Level that year available to me ) - Honors UIL Math Prep - Ap Physics 1 (Highest Level that year available to me ) (5) - Academic Level US History - AP Chemistry (Highest Level that year available to me ) (4) - AP Environmental (Highest Level that year available to me ) (5) - Honors Pre-Cal (Highest Level that year available to me ) Senior Year (will take upcoming year): - Honors Computer Science 3 (Highest Level that year available to me ) - Honors Computer Science 2 (Highest Level that year available to me ) - AP English 4 (Highest Level that year available to me ) - AP Gov/Econ (Highest Level that year available to me ) - AP Physics C (Highest Level that year available to me ) - AP Calc BC (Highest Level that year available to me ) - AP Stats (Highest Level that year available to me ) - Still Deciding but not AP for sure. Awards: - Adobe Certified Associate - Visual Design using Adobe Photoshop CC2015 - Aloha Math Competition Certificate. - UIL Math Competition Certificate. - Multiple Student of the month award Extracurriculars:
I am an intern at Visual Technologies LLC. I have helped in 4 projects regarding computer science for outside companies. This is one of my biggest achievements as a real company was willing to work with me and we ended up doing 4 projects together helping me grow every second of me working with them. After two successful projects with them, I was given some responsibilities such as following up with clients and other things. This gave me a sense of accomplishment because this would mean that they saw qualities in me that they would look for in a “normal aged” programmeconsultant.
2020 - I have worked for Cutco for about 3 months in which I have learned many skills for marketing. I have been promoted and over $3000 in sales. Other details mentioned earlier.
2019-2020- For UIL math we program our calculators to make tests easier for us. Last year I was one of the top coders for UIL math right after my seniors. I made programs that were complex. Although I didn't create many programs, I made programs that other programs were not able to create the year before because they were termed as “too hard”. Me being able to code those programs gave me the stance as a well-known programmer for UIL Math - an achievement in itself.
2016 - 2021 has offered free tutoring to many students who strive to be better but cannot afford fees. I have given at least 80 hours of free tutoring (not for school)
2020 - I have also worked for Ambit and have managed a successful team of over 50 members as I am a regional consultant for the company. I am in the top 10% of the company according to my boss, but I don't know whether this is true or not. I can certainly say that more than half of the people working do not make it to the level I am at. This company is an electricity company, and I have capitalized on selling our service to apartment complexes. I have also helped many high schoolers needing a job to find success in this business.
2020- I volunteered to make a system for the school called “Corona Tutors”. This is a platform where students can anonymously ask questions and receive answers from other students who want service hours. This fixes many problems: this eases the extreme dependence of teachers being online 24/7, this makes sure that students are getting their questions answered, this also allows students who want to help society. This is an official Prosper resource on their webpage which students can use at their will.
2017-2020- I have been a volunteer at ICNA Relief committed about 2 hours each week, and puts me right over 300 hours of community service. We as a group have made a rationing system where we try to fairly distribute goods and other goods as per people's needs. We help with anything from getting food to getting families a laptop for their kid's education.
My love for business goes very far. In 7th grade, fidget spinners were very popular and amazon took 3 months to ship them. This was perfect for a mini business, so I bought a fidget spinner directly through the supplier (AliExpress) and got my shipment. Not only did I retail them I also wholesale them in the mall to any store that was allowed to sell them. I came profitable from this business, but it was not the money that made this great, it was the contact I got through this business. - 2016
2020 - I resold brand new bikes with a high markup. One day scrolling through Facebook marketplace I realized that some bikes were being sold for almost 2x their price at Walmart. (During COVID) I simply contacted my contacts and was able to get about 200-250 brand new bikes. Since this was a very big investment I had five partners with me, and we marked them up according to market price a month later (150% return on investment)
2020 - When school ended, I started to get a lot of Forex trading ads, so I chose to take a look into what it was. Forex trading is a currency exchange and is highly risky. When I started to learn about it I started to see that there were groups called “signal groups”. These groups told you when to trade what and claimed that they have a 99% accuracy on their trades being profitable. Instead of trading, I chose to get in contact with famous traders and offer them a lucrative cut for simply sending a message in a group chat about what they are trading. For one month I tested the service and then put it into action for the public. The program kept working until all traders were able to work and then it was shut off making sure that more one was a loss.
2020 I have written a book/report that I have published it on Amazon. This report took me 200+ hours to make. As we learn in school, there is a rise in global warming, and it is our job to find alternative ways of fuel and stop the rise in global warming. I took an already done research - well in parts in college language- and made it into a more understandable report considering almost every aspect of the situation. I covered everything from the experimental design to how we can use the waste product in everyday life to how we can scale this project to how even a high schooler can make a difference by simply taking initiative and presenting this idea to their school. This report allowed me to take complex language and make it into an everyday language report. I showed my report to many people in the community and it was very satisfying to hear from their parents when they said “my son is going to present this idea to his school because they mostly have a lot of oil”. The report is about converting waste cooking oil to biodiesel.
2015 - 2020 - I have helped my mom in her business called “BLANK (don't want to say) Designs Collection”. Simply by watching her sell and trying it myself I acquired skills that I use to this day not only for business but simply for communicating. Currently, I am a social media and online sales handler for the company.
2018 - 2020 - I have been a part of Mu Alpha Theta for two year tutoring students for Math. Last year I was one of the top tutors for Mrs.Wood for algebra 2. I went there every time I did have an eagle time activity.
2020 - I recently joined the Science Honor society; we have helped the science fair in their activities.
Essays/LORs: Essays, I have not started. Letter of Rec: I have three incoming from my teachers. English/CounseloComputer Science/ Math (waiting for response) Schools: - MIT, - Brown University - Caltech - Carnegie Mellon - Columbia University - Cornell University - Duke University - Georgia Institute - Hamilton - Harvard University - Johns Hopkins University - Princeton University - Purdue University - Rice University - Stanford - UMich - UT Austin - UT Dallas - Texas A&M - UC Berkley
So apparently another one of my friends have "discovered" Forex through IML and during that same week now all of a sudden their a "Fx guru" and making millions. To me this is a slap in the face because I have been trying to teach myself how to trade for 2 years, but I never became profitable only because I didn't have no clear direction other then Babypips. It wasn't until I joined this fb group that strictly teaches technical analysis and compares markups with each other that I finally started to grasp the concept of trading, and even though i'm not be profitable yet at least i'm on the right path of becoming so. Now what is really irritating me about this friend is how i'm being told how i'm wasting my time trying to learn fx on my own, and how I can start making "bags" if I join IML using their signals and Harmonic scanner that's worth $100,000. If I wanted to do IML I would have done so from the very beginning, but sadly with me being a college student I don't have the funds to maintain a account with them, but not only that I wouldn't have done IML in the first place after I found out that they tell you what the do rather then you figuring it out for yourself. I'm the type of person that don't like to rely on somebody else to determine my success especially when money is evolved.
Can traders who don’t scam help me understand the appeal of Forex?
Soon to be college freshman, and I’ve seen a large rise in Forex traders amongst high schoolers and college students around my age. Enough that it’s not surprising how easy it is to convince someone to start. They all say “ Get rich quick”, “Make a second income from your phone”, “I’ve been using Forex for “time period under a year”, and have been making more than your parents”. Literally everyone pushes a “ I’m making a shit ton of money and I just started image”, which is obscene to me. One thing about them is that they never show actual profit, or explain Forex enough so I can understand the appeal. Almost everyone say to join a class or group or something similar, then I found out there’s a fee to get in, and that apparently it’s some type of scam where those new traders try to enlist under people and get fees(200$+). None of the traders ever talk about failures in the process of achieving positives, or negatives/setbacks. Pretty much they make it sound like a perfect money maker For one, I can’t really believe this is a get rich quick scheme, especially for freshman college students I know who can barely save or handle their finances/allowance money. And if it was, then it would be way more popular, because then everyone would be rich as long as they joined the group. I haven’t met anyone who told me they studied on their own, but that they joined a group. I see pictures of seminars and group meetings, and advertisements to “join my Forex group”, with a older college student in front of a car wearing a nice outfit. Plus, if you’re actually skeptical, a lot of them get defensive or showcase a “ I’m smarter and you’ll wish you started this” type rant. Some say, “this is my only income, I don’t have even a part time job “ I’m not saying I doubt Forex value, but I doubt the narratives pushed , but I assume these teenagers don’t research as much as you guys regardless, so honestly were you guys really making extreme profit starting off? If not, when did you guys see extreme profit? If yes, how much research and time did you put in? Are the groups needed? Can you use this as a single income? I’ve just started getting into investing with a, make money for the long road instead of get rich quick. Is Forex more in that side?
https://preview.redd.it/gq6s316pzqh51.jpg?width=1000&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=bc477168afdd25e604091517a34b0a5eab9c1a78 Our Recommended Forex Brokers List and Forex Trading Brokers You Should Use Are you looking to get into the forex market? Are you confused by the numerous brokers who offer their services to you? Well, we have something we know will help. On our page, we have compiled a forex broker list that includes all the good ones and why we recommend them. As with all of the recommendations we make, we always ensure that the information is in-depth and that the forex trading brokers you get are helpful. The statistics speak for them. In all our research, we have encountered scams, misinformation, and other misleading pieces of information that we think you should know about so you can avoid them. To make the forex brokers list, we have taken measures to make sure that the information is as accurate as possible and unbiased. As you will find out while reading what is provided here, the forex brokers have nuanced differences. We made comparisons of fees, charting tools, platforms, currency pairs, and virtually any aspect that we can measure. From all that work, we make a simple list that will let you know what to choose, so you do not have to do all that by yourself. In writing the forex brokers list, we ask ourselves the critical questions like 'what makes a forex broker good?' The forex trading brokers on the list we have provided have several essential factors in common. They have fair fees, low withdrawal fees, many instruments of trade, and currency pairs galore. They combine all this with a great platform that has advanced charting, so you do not have to worry about missing out on any parts of information that may be important to you when you want to make a trading decision. We tell all our beginner traders the same thing; always be careful. The first step in taking care is to look at professional forex broker lists compiled by people who know what they are talking about. Our reviewers and writers are the exact kinds of people who will point you in the right direction so you can have the opportunity to meet all the forex trading brokers with an excellent reputation. The risk you will find in forex will need you to make sure that you use all the information you can get. For that reason, we always insist that the forex education part is a must. When you are a student of the market, you will have no problem transitioning into the real work. If you can combine the education you get and the recommended forex brokers list, you will be able to pick only the best people to work with. From there, the only ceiling you will hit is how much you can make. As you will learn in the market, there is always a way for you to make more money. The tenets that ensure you keep your earnings include picking the best forex trading brokers. With us, you will have no problem with a particular aspect. On that note, we wish you luck in your efforts. We think you will find a lot of use from the lists we have prepared for you. Use them and see the results improve.
Become a financial investor with £300 and make £50 for doing nothing
Good Day! If you are looking for a quick easy way to earn £50 in commission then you are in the right place. Wether you're a student, full-time/part time worker or unemployed you can do this easily in 30 minutes or less. Many people are promoting forex programmes that only benefit themselves and probably offer you a book that explains nothing nothing more than you can learn on babypips.com I offer an educational group on an app called telegram (You can download it off the App Store, Android store or windows store.) And we can help you become traders not by selling worthless signals but by teaching you how to trade independently, a lifetime service for free. Now all this sounds too good to be true right? And what about that '£50 commission you told me about?' Well I work with a brokerage that when I get signed up and you trade with them I earn commission, For you doing so I am willing to give back to my team £50 via PayPal, Skrill or BTC, whatever floats your boat as a way of saying, Since you helped me, i'll help you. Plus I am offering you another investment opportunity in yourself, The way I think about trading on the financial markets is not a 'Get rich quick' scheme, or a 100% Guaranteed profit making strategy. I Just like many other traders have had bad weeks/months on the markets but the way to overcome it is to manage your risk and to make sure your bad weeks or months are nothing compared to your good ones. If you invest £1000 into a savings account and leave it there on say your 0.01% interest rate for a year you now have £1010. Congratulations you bank has now done for you what you could do in a week easily. You can open a trade on the lowest risk possible and make that if you find the right swing in the market, which with the right guidance and mindset and experiment, is not all too hard to do. Depositing with a broker is like depositing into a bank account. I can 100% guarantee there will be someone reading this thinking this is a scam, they are just going tot take your money and run. Be assured that I never see your money, when you hand over money to deposit cash into your bank account do you see your cashier take it and put it in their wallet/purse and then it not show up into your account? You are simply depositing money into your own account that only you will have access too and it is there for you to do what you would like with, you can be risky and trade big though I wouldn't recommend this, if you want to though I think you shout find the swing that would work the best for it, find every confirmation possible and enter where there is lowest risk to your account. But for most traders actually wanting to make a steady investment on their capital they can trade low risk, find the swings exactly how I just mentioned and grow your account bit by bit. As I said previously we offer training in the markets and this is exactly what we are trying to achieve. We don't charge a monthly service fee unlike most in this line of work, instead we actually make our living trading and use the commission from the broker as a service charge, basically like a tip to our weekly profits we use for leisure or to take the Mrs out for dinner :) If you are interested or have any questions drop a message to either me privately or if you think it is beneficial to everyone reading then add it to the bottom of this thread. We are more than happy to speak to you over telegram 1-1 and if you need to you can voice call over the app too. However you must be 18+ have some sort of ID and credit/debit card to sign up with the broker. ** If you are unsure when signing up with the broker you can research them/call them whatever you like. We only work with brokers that are registered under the FCA (Financial Conduct Authority)
Did you also think at the beginning that you are special?
This story reminds me how i felt when i left my job because of forex trading. After 2 years of demo, i left my job in the faith that i will be making dream money. I thinked, f*** the annoucements that 89,9% of traders lost their capital. I am the special and i will do it coz of a demo account results, but everyone knows how it ended... My strategy wasn’t so bad but my psychology was not prepared for this task. I believe that there are some traders that thinked about them that they are special or they started with forex. But every story can have a good end also. So, has anyone fulfilled their investor dream? Or the dream ends not well too?
Thoughts On The Market Series #1 - The New Normal?
Market Outlook: What to Make of This “New Normal”
By ****\* March 16, 2020 After an incredibly volatile week – which finished with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rallying over 9% on Friday – I suppose my readers might expect me to be quite upbeat about the markets. Unfortunately, I persist in my overall pessimistic outlook for stocks, and for the economy in general. Friday’s rally essentially negated Thursday’s sell-off, but I don’t expect it to be the start of a sustained turnaround. We’re getting a taste of that this morning, with the Dow opening down around 7%. This selloff is coming on the back of an emergency interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve of 100 basis points (to 0%-0.25%) on Sunday… along with the announcement of a new quantitative easing program of $700 billion. (I will write about this further over the next several days.) As I have been writing for many weeks, the financial bubble – which the Fed created by pumping trillions of dollars into the financial system – has popped. It will take some time for the bubble to deflate to sustainable levels. Today I’ll walk you through what’s going on in the markets and the economy… what I expect going forward and why… and what it means for us as traders. (You’ll see it’s not all bad news.)
Coronavirus’ Strain on the Global Economy
To start, let’s put things in perspective: This asset deflation was coming one way or another. Covid19 (or coronavirus) has simply accelerated the process. Major retailers are closing, tourism is getting crushed, universities and schools are sending students home, conventions, sporting events, concerts, and other public gatherings have been cancelled, banks and other financial service firms are going largely virtual, and there has been a massive loss of wealth. Restaurant data suggests that consumer demand is dropping sharply, and the global travel bans will only worsen the situation. Commercial real estate is another sector that looks particularly vulnerable. We are almost certain to see a very sharp and pronounced economic slowdown here in the United States, and elsewhere. In fact, I expect a drop of at least 5% of GDP over the next two quarters, which is quite severe by any standard. Sure, when this cycle is complete, there will be tremendous amounts of pent-up demand by consumers, but for the time being, the consumer is largely on the sidelines. Of course, the problems aren’t just in the U.S. China’s numbers look awful. In fact, the government there may have to “massage” their numbers a bit to show a positive GDP in the first quarter. Europe’s numbers will also look dreadful, and South Korea’s economy has been hit badly. All around the world, borders are being shut, all non-essential businesses are being closed, and people in multiple countries are facing a lockdown of historic proportions. The coronavirus is certainly having a powerful impact, and it looks certain that its impact will persist for a while. Consider global tourism. It added almost $9 trillion to the global economy in 2018, and roughly 320 million jobs. This market is in serious trouble. Fracking in the U.S. is another business sector that is in a desperate situation. Millions of jobs and tens of billions of loans are now in jeopardy. The derivative businesses that this sector supports will be likewise devastated as companies are forced to reduce their workforces or shut down due to the collapse in oil prices. This sector’s suffering will probably force banks to book some big losses despite attempts by the government to support this industry. In a similar way, the derivative businesses that are supported by the universities and colleges across America are going to really suffer. There are nearly 20 million students in colleges across the U.S. When they go home for spring vacation and do not return, the effect on the local businesses that colleges and university populations support will be devastating. What does this “new normal” mean going forward? Let’s take a look…
New Normal
The new normal may become increasingly unpleasant for us. We need to be ready to hunker down for quite some time. Beyond that, the government needs to handle this crisis far better in the future. The level of stupidity associated with the massive throngs of people trapped in major airports yesterday, for example, was almost unimaginable. Instead of facilitating the reduction of social contact and halting the further spread of the coronavirus, the management of the crowds at the airports produced a perfect breeding ground for the spread of the virus. My guess is that more draconian travel restrictions will be implemented soon, matching to some extent the measures taken across Europe. This will in turn have a further dampening effect on economic activity in the U.S., putting more and more pressure on the Fed and the government to artificially support a rapidly weakening economy. Where does this end up? It is too early to say, but a very safe bet is that we will have some months of sharply negative growth. Too many sectors of the economy are going to take a hit to expect anything else. The Fed has already driven interest rates to zero. Will that help? Unlikely. In fact, as I mentioned at the beginning of this update, the markets are voting with a resounding NO. The businesses that are most affected by the current economic situation will still suffer. Quantitative easing is hardly a cure-all. In fact, it has been one of the reasons that we have such a mess in our markets today. The markets have become addicted to the easy money, so more of the same will have little or no impact. We will need real economic demand, not an easier monetary policy. It won’t help support tourism, for example, or the other sectors getting smashed right now. The government will need to spend at least 5% of GDP, or roughly $1 trillion, to offset the weakness I see coming. Is it surprising that the Fed and the government take emergency steps to try to stabilize economic growth? Not at all. This is essentially what they have been doing for a long time, so it is completely consistent with their playbook. Next, I would anticipate the government implementing some massive public-works and infrastructure programs over the coming months. That would be very helpful, and almost certainly quite necessary. But there’s a problem with this kind of intervention from the government…
What Happens When You Eliminate the Business Cycle
The Fed’s foolish attempt to eliminate business cycles is a significant contributing factor to the volatility we are currently experiencing. Quantitative easing is nothing more than printing lots and lots of money to support a weak economy and give the appearance of growth and prosperity. In fact, it is a devaluation of the currency’s true buying power. That in turn artificially drives up the prices of other assets, such as stocks, real estate and gold – but it does not create true wealth. That only comes with non-inflationary growth of goods and services and associated increases in economic output. Inflation is the government’s way to keep people thinking they are doing better. To that point: We have seen some traditional safe-haven assets getting destroyed during this time of risk aversion. That has certainly compounded the problems of many investors. Gold is a great example. As the stock market got violently slammed, people were forced to come up with cash to support their losing positions. Gold became a short-term source of liquidity as people sold their gold holdings in somewhat dramatic fashion. It was one of the few holdings of many people that was not dramatically under water, so people sold it. The move may have seemed perverse, particularly to people who bought gold as a safe-haven asset, but in times of crisis, all assets tend to become highly correlated, at least short term. We saw a similar thing happen with long yen exposures and long Bitcoin exposures recently. The dollar had its strongest one-day rally against the yen since November 2016 as people were forced to sell huge amounts of yen to generate liquidity. Many speculators had made some nice profits recently as the dollar dropped sharply from 112 to 101.30, but they have been forced to book whatever profits they had in this position. Again, this was due to massive losses elsewhere in their portfolios. Is the yen’s sell-off complete? If it is not complete, it is probably at least close to an attractive level for Japanese investors to start buying yen against a basket of currencies. The major supplies of yen have largely been taken off the table for now. For example, the yen had been a popular funding currency for “carry” plays. People were selling yen and buying higher-yielding currencies to earn the interest rate difference between the liability currency (yen) and the funding currency (for example, the U.S. dollar). Carry plays are very unpopular in times of great uncertainty and volatility, however, so that supply of yen will be largely gone for quite some time. Plus, the yield advantage of currencies such as the U.S. dollar, Canadian dollar, and Australian dollar versus the yen is nearly gone. In addition, at the end of the Japanese fiscal year , there is usually heavy demand for yen as Japanese corporations need to bring home a portion of their overseas holdings for balance sheet window dressing. I don’t expect that pressure to be different this year. Just as the safe-haven assets of yen and gold got aggressively sold, Bitcoin also got hammered. It was driven by a similar theme – people had big losses and they needed to produce liquidity quickly. Selling Bitcoin became one of the sources of that liquidity.
Heavy Price Deflation Ahead
Overall, there is a chance that this scenario turns into something truly ugly, with sustained price deflation across many parts of the economy. We will certainly have price deflation in many sectors, at least on a temporary basis. Why does that matter over the long term? Price deflation is the most debilitating economic development in a society that is debt-laden – like the U.S. today. Prices of assets come down… and the debt becomes progressively bigger and bigger. The balance sheet of oil company Chesapeake Energy is a classic example. It’s carrying almost $10 billion worth of debt… versus a market cap of only about $600 million. Talk about leverage! When the company had a market cap of $10 billion, that debt level didn’t appear so terrifying. Although this is an extreme example for illustrative purposes, the massive debt loads of China would seem more and more frightening if we were to sink into flat or negative growth cycles for a while. The government’s resources are already being strained, and it can artificially support only so many failing companies. The U.S. has gigantic levels of debt as well, but it has the advantage of being the world’s true hegemon, and the U.S. dollar is the world’s reserve currency. This creates a tremendous amount of leverage and power in financing its debt. The U.S. has been able to impose its will on its trading partners to trade major commodities in dollars. This has created a constant demand for the dollar that offsets, to a large extent, the massive trade deficit that the U.S. runs. For example, if a German company wants to buy oil, then it needs to hold dollars. This creates a constant demand for dollar assets. In short, the dollar’s status as the true global reserve currency is far more important than most people realize. China does not hold this advantage.
What to Do Now
In terms of how to position ourselves going forward, I strongly recommend that people continue with a defensive attitude regarding stocks. There could be a lot more downside to come. Likewise, we could see some panic selling in other asset classes. The best thing right now is to be liquid and patient, ready to pounce on special opportunities when they present themselves. For sure, there will be some exceptional opportunities, but it is too early to commit ourselves to just one industry. These opportunities could come in diverse sectors such as commercial real estate, hospitality, travel and leisure, and others. As for the forex markets, the volatility in the currencies is extreme, so we are a bit cautious. I still like the yen as a safe-haven asset. I likewise still want to sell the Australian dollar, the New Zealand dollar, and the Canadian dollar as liability currencies. Why? The Bank of Canada, the Reserve Bank of Australia, and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand have all taken aggressive steps recently, slashing interest rates. These currencies are all weak, and they will get weaker. Finding an ideal entry for a trade, however, is tricky. Therefore, we are being extra careful with our trading. We always prioritize the preservation of capital over generating profits, and we will continue with this premise. At the same time, volatility in the markets is fantastic for traders. We expect many excellent opportunities to present themselves over the coming days and weeks as prices get driven to extreme levels and mispricings appear. So stay tuned.
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