Hey Sportsfans — it's time for Week 11 of baseball's 2020 Power Rankings — In our final ranking of the season we are doing things a little bit differently. You'll notice only the 16 playoff teams are ranked in this week's edition and you should note the different voting rules for the week below.
I would like to take a moment to thank all the readers of this weekly feature that make this project worthwhile. Another year in the books! Cheers to you, and I tip my cap to all the team representatives, past and present, who make this project possible.

Edit: Numerous errors have been fixed and the rankings updated.

Every voter has their own style / system and the only voting instructions are these: (Special Playoff Rules)

"Please rank the playoff teams from most likely to win the World Series to least likely, taking into account match ups, route to the WS, and anything unique about the playoffs."

Full end of season retrospectives will be posted in the comments for all teams
TRANSPARENCY: this link will show you who voted each team where and has added neat statistics!
Please note: Because our dedicated team of voters have trouble breaking their habits, you may notice some people voted for all 30 teams. You can safely ignore those votes. Or argue about them since I can't stop you.
You may notice some other wonkiness because of this.
If something is a little messed up, feel free to pester me let me know.
Total Votes: 28 of 30. Missing votes / blurbs may be on their way.

#	Team	Comment	Record
1	Dodgers	With all the uncertainty we have all been faced with this year, the Dodgers have truly been one of the pillars of reliability and stability in an ever turbulant world. Simply put, they have been exactly who we all expected them to be (which uhhhh, is the best team in baseball) and seem fully locked and loaded to make another major push at that long overdue piece of metal. But they have been able to do it with a pretty notable difference in who the reliable contributors have been. A year ago, we'd be looking at this team going into the postseason with Ryu, Hill, and Maeda to flank Buehler and Kershaw (can you imagine still having those guys on this team 😳) and be led by postseason heroes of Muncy and Pederson alongside our MVP Bellinger, and the ever present questionmark that is the Dodger pen. Now, the rookie arms of May, Gonsolin, and the Mango Man alongside a revitalized Jake McGee and a seemingly "back" Blake Treinen shore up the original gang (with Kenley's massive shadow looming over with impending doom) with the bats of AJ Pollock, Corey Seager, and the new savior Mookie Betts looking to bring a ring back to LA. But what would be more 2020, the Dodgers getting knocked off surprisingly early, or the Dodgers finally not getting knocked off at all?	43-17
2	Rays	The Rays came into 2020 looking to be a legitimate contender and have 100% delivered on those expectations. They won the AL East for the first time since 2010 and were the only American League team to win 40 games. In addition to that, they also had one of the toughest schedules and had the best record in baseball vs winning teams. The name of the game has been consistency, which has been true of both sides of the ball. Injuries have come and gone, but in classic Rays fashion the guys filling in, especially pitchers, performed fantastically. The only struggles came in fielding, which was atrocious the first couple weeks but has since returned to normal. There was a little bit of drama, a few magic moments, some wacky shenanigans, and a lot of happy flappy boi posting, which filled up this shortened season to the fullest. This is looking like the Rays strongest chance since 2008, now it’s time to get it done in the playoffs. (cont. in comments)	40-20
3	Athletics	Someday soon we will all look back at 2020 fondly. One reason for me will be the A's. Yes, the owners robbed us out of June and most of July baseball. D. Mengden caught SARSII, causing a week of hectic isolation. M. Chapman, the energy behind this team, left with a hip injury. Yet this team ended the year with a .600 winning percentage- the 21st time in team history we've reached or surpassed that momentous milestone. And a lot of those teams won pennants- one inspired a movie. This was a season full of amazing snapshots- M. Olson's walk off grand slam on "opening" day under the new dumb rules, the Piscotty walk off grand slam against Texas, the historic comeback off McCovey Cove. Most of all the team seemed to like each other, led by the shrewd Bob Melvin and player leaders M. Semien and C. Pinder. Yes, this could have been M. Semien's last year. It also might have been T. La Stella's only year on the A's and it is special watching that guy rarely strike out. There was R. Laureano's hot headed yet heroic stand against Astro villany. The A. Allen charged 13th inning game against HOU. Fans will be so spoiled with the defensive wizardry of Sean Murphy and J. Heim- they can hit, too! Bet you thought I'd mention M. Olson when I started that sentance- people are still sleeping on the best LH hitter in baseball. (cont. in comments)	36-24
4	Padres	Take it with a grain of salt, as I was not fortunate enough to have watched Tony in his prime, but this past season has been my favorite, most exciting, and most interesting brand of Padres Baseball I’ve ever had the pleasure of watching. I come away not thinking that the team is the best at anything. The starting pitching can sometimes put us in an early hole, hitters can sometimes all seem off on the same night, the bullpen, once a staple, can sometimes blow a lead all together, if not making the game too close for comfort. Yet...with this group of guys, I’m still on the edge of my seat, waiting for the big moment to happen, because they’ve come through so very often. (cont. in comments)-	37-23
5	Twins	After a stomach-twisting final week, the Twins have repeated as AL Central Champions! Heading into the playoffs, Twins fans should be fairly optimistic as we'll have 29 other teams at our back when we face the below-.500 trash-can-banging asterisk-loving boys from Houston in the first round. With a rotation of Maeda-Berrios-Pineda, the Twins have an excellent chance to advance. How much success we have after that will depend on unlucky late injuries to Buxton and Donaldson, and if they can come back quickly to make meaningful contributions.	36-24
6	Braves	There's wind boys...blew us to our 3rd straight division title! It wasn't always pretty, we had major injuries along the way including Soroka, Albies and Acuña for significant time. After losing Soroka we knew our offense would have to carry us on their backs...and oh boy did they! As a team, we were second in the MLB in AVG (.268), second in homeruns (103), second in runs scored (348), first in OBP (.349), first OPS (.832), first in hits (.556) and tied for first in slugging percentage (.483). This was highlighted by a 29 run game and huge individual efforts by the most fearsome 1-3 in baseball. Freddie Freeman should win his first MVP and Ozuna will get votes as well. When healthy, Roñald was dominant. Max Fried stepped up huge for us an proved to be an ace. Ian Anderson showed up and was really good, Kyle Wright seemingly turned it around and was very effective in his final starts. With a healthy Soroka next year, these 4 young arms will be a force to be reckoned with for years to come. Hopefully we shake our playoff woes this year and have history repeat itself: win the world series in a shortened season! Let's bring it home.	35-25
7	Yankees	Thanks to the Orioles, the Yankees play the Indians in the first round, and then the Rays/Jays. So Cole/Bieber, Tanaka/Carrasco and then whatever Boone cobbles togethePlesac. The Indians have one hitter, and if we can throw around him, the pitching rotation we have to face looks a little less intimidating. This season, for the Yankees, has been the story of being very hot and very cold. It goes without saying that this team can hit when it needs to, and at the very least, you feel like this team has the potential to beat anyone on this 16 team list. It's just a matter of which Yanks show up.	33-27
8	Cubs	While this was a frustrating season to watch, the Cubs managed to lock down the NL Central before the final day of the season. Highlights included Darvish's Cy Young campaign, Hendricks' excellent season, Heyward's resurgance, and a relatively cozy late September for once. Some of the most frustrating parts of the season were Bryant/Rizzo/Contreras/Baez collectively hitting worse than the Texas Rangers, the bullpen's woes in the first half, Lester's inconsistency, and Quintana barely getting on the field. The Cubs actually have one of the easier paths to the World Series, especially if the Dodgers and Padres get knocked out by the NLCS. However, anything can happen in a 3-game series and Cubs fans are still traumatized by the 2003 series against the Marlins. I myself am so excited to watch an absurd amount of baseball over the next month-- now let's get weird!	34-26
9	White Sox	Is there a fanbase that actively hates their own team as much as the White Sox? There are exactly 5 teams in the MLB with a better record than the Sox. If you extrapolate this season, they gained 22 wins from last year, made the playoffs and 90% of the talk about is how horrible the manager is and how bad we were down the stretch. If you asked most fans at the beginning of the season if 10 games above 500 and a playoff spot would be good, they would all be ecstatic. Perspective is really important, especially after 12 years of not reaching the playoffs. Sure, there are plenty disappointments, and yes, Ricky Renteria's bullpen management and lineup decisions are bad. But this is also a team that went on an absolute tear for a month and finally generated some nationwide buzz that they could actually win it all. We have exciting, young players all over the field. We have a top 3 MVP candidate, our ace threw a fricken no-hitter this year. Even Ricky made improvements from past seasons. He hardly bunted at all this year! And he put Grandal, a high OBP guy in the #2 spot for a good portion of the season. No, we aren't the best team in the league, but before the season, we weren't even seriously considered a playoff team. This year is an absolutely, unqualified success. (And I still hold out the slimmest bit of hope that Ricky stops playing the long game in the playoffs and actively puts his best players in.)	35-25
10	Indians	There's no question that Cleveland's 1-2-3 of Bieber-Carrasco-Plesac is about as good as there is in the Silly Series. But can their weak lineup pull their weight? Who will win the battle of right-handed strikeout pitchers vs. right-handed power hitters? Anything can happen in a three-game series, and we'll find out this week.	35-25
11	Reds	The Reds go into the playoffs (!!!) as the hottest team in baseball. They've now won 5 series in a row, four of which came against playoff teams. The bullpen regressed nicely and is no longer a Phillies-esque liability. There are definitely some issues with the bat, but they've proven over the past week that they don't need to rely on solo home runs to win. Akiyama has turned into a reliable leadoff hitter, and the catching tandem has become one of the most reliable in the league. But where this team will really give the Braves fits is the starting pitching. With 2020 NL Cy Young winner Trevor Bauer taking the mound on Wednesday, followed by Luis Castillo and Sonny Gray, this team is built for a short series.	31-29
12	Cardinals	baseball just began / and now it's the postseason / i still long for march	30-28
13	Blue Jays	The Toronto Blue Jays had one of, if not the most, tumultuous years in baseball. After what was seen as a broadly successful offseason, highlighted by the acquisition of Hyun-Jin Ryu, the Jays were expected to play ~.500 ball, and maybe have an outside chance at a wildcard spot. The front office showed a marked desire to start opening the window of contention. Bringing in innings eater Tanner Roark, reclamation project Travis Shaw, and Japanese League stars Rafael Dolis and Shun Yamaguchi. 2020 was also the final turning point for the Blue Jays. The departure of Anthopoulos/Beeston holdover, Justin Smoak, meant the page had finally, truly turned, and this was now the team built by Mark Shapiro and Ross Atkins. We would finally get to see what their team looked like. Then, the unthinkable happened. - 134 days without baseball. Canada’s response to the pandemic was unflinchingly strict. After a Summer Camp in the Skydome, that featured a Vladimir Guerrero Jr. move to 1B, the Blue Jays were sent packing, and headed off to an uncertain future, without a home. Rumours circulated that they would find a home in Pittsburgh, Baltimore, or even at Spring Training HQ in Dunedin, but when all was said and done, the Jays landed in The Queen City, home of the Bisons, Buffalo, New York. (cont. in comments)	32-28
14	Astros	Finishing a regular season, as short and weird as it was, under .500 for the first time since 2014 is an uncomfortable feeling. It's unsurprising, given the blows our pitching staff received and the inability of our hitters to stay consistent. Blame it on the shortened season, blame it on being unable to cheat, blame it on whatever you want - the fact remains we have decidedly moved backwards as a franchise this year. For the first time in a few years, I do not feel confident in our pitching staff or our hitters to win a playoff series. If we had Verlander, my optimism would increase, but our bullpen would be a huge question mark no matter what. These next three games may be the last George Springer spends in an Astros uniform, so hopefully we're treated to the Springer Dingers we've become accustomed to over the years. It's difficult to look ahead to 2021 given the uncertainty in the world right now, but with (presumably) a full season and a chance to either find some help in free agency or extend some of our upcoming FA-eligible players, I'm optimistic James Click will steer the ship in the right direction. Let's make sure we give Dusty plenty of popsicles.	29-31
15	Marlins	OH BOY. First off i just wanna give the NBC Philadelphia broadcast team a huge shoutout, AY RICKY BO STAY BEAUTIFUL. Anywho, we have had a hell of a season. Despite calling up damn near over a dozen top prospects up this season, some of them way too early, we managed to stay afloat during the dog days of corona quarantine. Yall already know the deal so i dont have to say much, the starters are nasty and the defense is solid. The huge question mark going into the post season is how will the bats fare. That is our current weakest link. I made the prediction that Monte Harrison will heat up (see what i did there?) in the post season and hit october dingers in the marlins discord and im sticking by that. Cubs vs Marlins gives me some real feels going back to when i was still a jit, hopefully lightning strikes twice. Oh, and Ill say it now: we swindled the cardinals, phillies and yankees. Thanks for all the prospects suckers!	31-29
16	Brewers	Well MIlwaukee made the playoffs, that's definitely someting. The path forward is simple, get the game to the bullpen with a lead. The Brewers bullpen has shown it to be the best bullpen in all of baseball, however the bats have not seem to woken up from the winter hibernation. Only one qualified batter is hitting over .250 (Orlando Arcia with a whopping .260) Christian Yelich and Keston Hiura spent the entire year trying to race Miguel Sano to 100 Strikeouts. Plain and simple the bats are bad	29-31

People who blame the 2016 World Series result on Tyler Naquin: why?

A Realistic Re-Tooling of the Cubs Roster this Offseason

I've been trying to think through various scenarios for who the Cubs keep and who they move heading into next season. I started by putting players into buckets, from most likely to stick around (Certain Bets) to those most likely to move (On the Block). I wrote a short synopsis of why I see each player in the three buckets I've created. We could see a blockbuster trade that moves some guys from the Certain Bets bucket. But all else being equal, I don't see that happening.
TL;DR: About half of the roster is probably going to stay the same but the Cubs could look a lot different by moving a couple or all of 4 players I see as "on the block."
Certain Bets: * SP: Yu Darvish, Kyle Hendricks, Adbert Alzolay, Alec Mills * RP: Craig Kimbrell, Jason Adam, Duane Underwood, Kyle Ryan, Ryan Tepara, Rowan Wick * C: Victor Caratini * INF: Anthony Rizzo, David Bote, Nico Hoerner * OF: Jason Heyward, Ian Happ
Of these guys, I don't think you trade them or move them from their current role. Yu is a Cy Young candidate and should be for at least another couple of years if he stays healthy. Hendricks is one of the best contracts in baseball and signed for another 3 seasons. Alzolay and Mills did enough, in my opinion, to justify their spots in the rotation for at least another year. Alzolay has #2 or #3 starter stuff while Mills was able to show that he be a reliable end-of-the-rotation option at the very least. At his best, he's a guy that eats innings and gives you 20-25 quality starts a year. You would love that as a 5th starter on a playoff team. Of the relievers, they are committed to Kimbrel and just started to see what he was capable of doing after a brutal start to his Cubs career. I expect him to be the closer again on Opening Day. Underwood is out of options, but he looked pretty good after that first few weeks of the season and seemed to take to bullpen. Adam and Wick were two of the better arms from the right side and are both cheap, still under team control for another year. Kyle Ryan was not as effective in '20 as he was in '19. but he's arbitration-eligible for the first time next season. Ryan Tepara was pretty good, too, and entering his last year of arbitration.
Moving to the position players, I'll start behind the plate. I suppose the Cubs could move Caratini, but's he's a valuable backup, can play 1B, and paired great with Yu Darvish this past season. The lack of power production was a little concerning, but he's arbitration eligible for another 3 seasons and I don't see the club moving on from the backstop. As for the Captain, Rizzo has a very team-friendly club option of $16.5 million for the 2021 season. That seems too good to pass up. It would also be wise to see if Hoerner can improve behind the plate. His defense was good and some of his peripherals looked at the plate. His strikeout rate did rise but not all that much. It was below 20%. He also took more walks. Where he really struggled looking at strikes rather than swinging the bat. His looking strike rate rose quite a bit. He didn't miss often when he took a hack. More balls in play, especially if he can continue to get stronger, would do him wonders. Bote was a little closer to his first two years in the majors and continued to show that he has pop in his bat and often got hits in late innings. He's a versatile player and could continue to improve by cutting down on the number of strikeouts on high fastballs. Overall, he's cheap and productive with average or better defense. What's not to like? Of the outfields, I just don't see a reason for the Cubs moving either of Happ or Heyward. Happ looked like an All-Star until his eye injury and was the only one hitting the ball against the Marlins in the playoffs. Heyward had his best season at the plate as a Cub and was still a plus defensively in right field. He'll never earn his contract, but he can at least be a positive contributor and gets on base a lot. For a team that has struggled to convert baserunners into runs, a guy that gets on base a lot and rarely strikes out should stick around. It helps that no other team would want that contract.
Probables: * RP: Brailyn Marquez, James Norwood, Brad Wieck * INF: Ildrmaro Vargas
Marquez is an interesting case. In the ideal future, he's a starter in 2022, along with Yu, Kyle, and Alzolay. But is he ready to contribute in '21? I think, if we see him, it will be out of the pen before being stretched out in the minors in case of emergency or for his own benefit. If the club feels like he's progressing well, he could start out the season in AA as a starter. I'm not sure what direction it will go, but I expect he'll be at Wrigley at some point in some role. Norwood and Wieck were injured this past season, but they both have team-friendly contracts and upside in the pen. I could see Ildemaro Vargas, as a player under team control for another season that impressed in a very limited showing, as a guy that makes financial and baseball sense as an infield option behind Nico or Bote.
On the Block: * C: Willson Contreras * INF: Javy Baez, Kris Bryant * OF: Kyle Schwarber
Here's where things get interesting. Willy is a valuable player and showed huge improvement in pitch framing. His offense was above average if not quite what the fans were hoping to see from him this season. With 2 more years of arbitration ahead, he probably holds the most value as a trade asset. Personally, I think the club holds onto Contreras for at least another year if they don't sign him to an extension. Miguel Amaya is not quite ready to make the leap to the majors and it would behoove the team to retain a player that offers good OBP plus pop in his bat like Willy. Then again, he could bring the most in a trade back to the Cubs. So who knows?
Javy and KB are the two players that exemplified the struggles of the Cubs offense the past 3 seasons. When they are on, they are among the best hitters in all of baseball and offer great defense on the left side of the infield. It's past time to expert Baez to take pitches, but he still has found a way to work counts and the power will probably remain in his bat for another 5+ years. KB's dropoff was more perplexing. He's been among the best hitters in the NL up until 2020. Did he miss out on something this season or just get never find his way out of a 2-month funk until he got to Comisky Park the final weekend of the regular season? Was it an accumulation of injuries? Either way, he was a total enigma, which was a terrible place to be entering the final arbitration year. His value has never been lower. As for Schwarber, he looked like he had turned a corner in the second half of 2019 into a high-contact power hitter. There were glimpses of that early in 2020, but then a prolonged slump resulted in his worst year at the plate. The strikeouts were concerning. He might not ever bat above .250 in his career, but he needs to at least make contact. In an ideal world, the Cubs acquire another good outfield and Schwarber can settle into a long career as a DH that can mash 40-50 HR's a year. But that question is whether he does that with the Cubs or on another team that can be willing to find out if he can cut down on the swing-and-miss in his game. The promise of that makes him appealing to other clubs, which is why he shows up here.
In his end of year presser, Theo admitted that the offense needs to be retooled. The 4 players on the block - Baez, Bryant, Contreras, and Schwarber, were most often than not stranding runners at key times. If the Cubs want to retool, it is most likely going to involve a few or maybe even all of these players. They each have value. The question is if the Cubs see enough in return to pull the trigger.

2020 r/baseball Power Rankings -- Week 5: Lots of Movement Outside of Top 3, D'Backs Bite Back, Mets Do Not Enjoy Their Week, Bird Report: Orange Good, Blue Neutral, Red MIA but Returns Next Week!

Hey Sportsfans — it's time for Week 5 of baseball's 2020 Power Rankings — Five weeks and we are not any closer to understanding what's going on this season or maybe I've just watched too many Giants games. Please enjoy these powerful rankings.
The Cardinals are banished again but they will be returning next week if all goes as planned.
Every voter has their own style / system and the only voting instructions are these:

"To an extent determined individually, you must take into account how strong a team is right now and likely to be going forward. You must, to some degree, give weight to the events and games of the previous week."

TRANSPARENCY: this link will show you who voted each team where and has added neat statistics!
If something is a little messed up, feel free to ~~pester me~~ let me know.
Total Votes: 30 of 30. A perfect vote!

#	Team	Δ	Comment	Record
1	Dodgers	0	Resistence is futile. All must bow down to your leader, Mookie Betts. Fun Fact: Frank Robinson is the only man to ever win an MVP in both the American League and the National League. I don't know about y'all, but I'm starting to think he has a pretty good shot at finally getting some company	16-7
2	Yankees	0	From a semi-disappointing 8 game 5 loss week to a pleasant 5 game 5 win week, the Yankees look strong again. This roster feels like it is too brittle to handle the rigors of a difficult travel schedule, what with Judge, Giancarlo and DJ out. Even more telling is the 9-0 Home record (obviously best in the league). Upcoming this week is the remainder of the homestand for four games against the Rays and Sox, and then a "road trip" to Citi Field.	15-6
3	Athletics	0	The 2020 A's are excelling in several areas- dingers, walks, and "stupid clutch" hits beyond the 8th inning. Matt Olson has 8 HR's, 4 1Bs, 2nd lowest average on the team. Laureano got his suspension knocked down but sat out the weekend. Which left Canha, Piscotty, and Robbie Grossman with his 1.007 OPS/4 steals to carry on. We lost to the Trout's 0-6 TUE, our first shutout. We haven't lost since, and assailed the poor SF closer with 2 historic, yet eerily inevitable comebacks. My first reaction is not triumph, but empathy, because this years SF club has similar failings of the 2015 A's and boy, was that hard to muddle through. 3 game crapshoot playoff round looming? oh, fun	16-6
4	Twins	+1	https://i.redd.it/hjkta6tzjdh51.jpg	14-8
5	Cubs	+1	Losing three one-run games in a row against the Brewers was painful and familiar. I personally am not reading too much into it, since one run games tend to be coin flips. Craig Kimbrel also looked great in his two most recent outings. This week the Cubs play the Cardinals five times in three games and hope to put some more distance between themselves and the rest of the division.	13-6
6	Rays	+3	Is your offense struggling? Water cold? Flappy parts not what they used to be? Sounds like you need a trip to historic Fenway Park, where you can put up 8+ runs a game and revitalize. Some players have even declared the Rays the #1 team in baseball. The Rays capped off a 6-1 week, led by Brandon Lowe (pronounced Lowe) with 4HR, a wRC+ of 297 (205 on the season), and 0.9 WAR. The surge in offense covered up pitching that wasn't at it's best, but they got the job done when it mattered. Oh, the Rays also lead the AL in Runs scored now. Neat!	14-9
7	Braves	-3	sigh We are severly banged up with Acuña and Albies on the shelf. Big City returns this week as a bench bat/DH, but we need someone to step up and STOP STRIKING OUT. Starting pitching is a big issue execpt Fried who is a bonafide ace. A 2-4 week seems pretty damn succesful considering we took a series from the first place Marlins(?!). u/ebennett sums it up: Be quiet, I think he is gonna say something.	13-10
8	Indians	-1	Tribey learned how to hit...uh oh! Sorry, I just watched Happy Gilmore. But seriously, adding some much-needed offense to an already-amazing pitching staff is the key to the Tribe overtaking the Twins in the ALC. Even losing aces/douchebags Plesac and Clevinger to the DL (Dumbass List) the rotation didn't skip a beat, folding in sixth man Adam Plutko with some off-days to make it seem like nothing even happened	13-9
9	Rockies	-1	Maybe the Rockies are who we thought they were? The bullpen is in serious trouble after losing, Oberg, Davis, potentially Carlos Estevez and Jairo Diaz walking the world. Rockies will need Daniel Bard to be more than a feel good story for the rest of the season. Also, isn't it just super cool that Mookie Betts is a Dodger for eternity??? Last week: 2-4 Next week: 2 vs HOU 2 @HOU & 3 @LAD	13-8
10	Astros	+1	Kyle Tucker saved us from yet another extra inning game this season and for that we are eternally grateful. Offense starting to come around a little bit, but pitching is still our glaring weak spot. Blake Taylor is a beast and I will not hear otherwise.	11-10
11	Padres	-1	Here’s a cherry picked stat for ya: In the last five games, the Pads have only scored 3 runs between innings 1-5, meaning 3 runs in 25 total innings. Sunday ended a poor week with awful runner in scoring position numbers, and Tommy Pham having to leave the game during an at bat that ultimately culminated in San Diego’s final out. What does it all mean? We’ve dipped under .500 for the first time this season, free falling on a five game skid. The club will look to rebound at home versus Texas, and Houston, which is a city in Texas.	11-12
12	Brewers	+1	A 10-10 record isn't great, especially when they've scored the fourth fewest runs. However, the bats appear to be waking up and the pitching isn't cooling off. Hat tip to ESPN for calling this out: Milwaukee designated hitters enter Monday hitting a combined .154/.214/.333.	10-10
13	White Sox	-1	The White Sox have to be one of the most frustrating teams this year. They're 500, just like they were last week. After a couple days off, they came out extremely flat in a DH against the Cards and lost both. And then they hit 4 back to back homers the next day. For a team that was expected to hit, they have a bottom 5 BB/K ratio and near the bottom third of runs scored this year. But at the same time, still 500 and currently a playoff team. This team, I don't know man.	11-11
14	Nationals	+1	7(2.7) - 11(2.7) ≈ 19-31	8-11
15	Reds	-1	The Reds are in the midst of their second Covid crisis of the season, as an unnamed player (speculated to be Nick Senzel) has tested positive. There doesn't seem to be any teamwide outbreake, but we all know how quickly these things can change. Still, the team is hopeful they can play on Tuesday. As for the actual baseball we saw, they split with a couple awful teams but looked alright doing it. Jesse Winker and his neck are on a tear, and the bullpen looks better, in no small part to new addition Tyler Thornburg.	9-11
16	Phillies	+1	The Phillies once again had a confusing week. They got swept by the Orioles but pretty much dominated the Mets. The bullpen has looked...better, even servicable in the past three games. The rotation has been solid, led by Cy Young candidate Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler. The offense scored 48 runs this week, led by MVP candidates Bryce Harper and JT Realmuto. The division is still in reach, and the Phillies should be in dcent shape to make a run for it. #ResignJT	8-9
17	Orioles	+3	Mid August and the Orioles are a playoff team...what the hell is happening? I would say it's really good hitting or really good pitching, but the team ERA is above 4, their hitting though is tops in MLB in a bunch of categories. I guess this team doesn't realize they aren't suuposed to win. If you bet the over on total wins in Vegas this year then you'll get your winnings soon. Also if this was a full season Dylan Bundy would be on pace for a 21-7 record...ugh.	12-9
18	Marlins	0	Well our lack of depth and replacement players are starting to show. Only thing that has not declined drastically is SP. Thankfully all 17 covid players have been cleared to play and are currently in Jupiter rehabbing. This week we got the mets at home for 4 and then 3 in DC.	9-6
19	D-Backs	+7	The D-backs have actually come to life as of late, getting more consistency out of the offense and more great starts from Gallen and Merrill Kelly. A sweep of the Padres in Chase (where the D-backs could cheat by opening the roof) pulled them ahead of the Friars in the standings, and they're almost through their insanely tough part of the schedule to start the season. Watch out for the Snakes.	11-11
20	Rangers	+2	Wear a Mask. Wash your hands. 3 series wins in a row during the last week helped get the record up to .500. This up coming week with series against the Padres and Mariners will show if this team is for real or not. Lance Lynn for Cy Young.	10-10
21	Mets	-5	This was an interesting week in my personal rankings. We're now 4 full weeks in, I figured it's time to make some sweeping changes instead of only moving teams two or three spots if that. As for the Mets, what can you say? We're a middling team that shows ocasional flashes of brilliance. We dodged two big bullets when it comes to injuries to deGrom, and McNeil, but being swept by the Phillies is a big bullet to take no matter what. With our next 13 being strictly against the Marlins and Yankees, we've got some big tests coming up; Let's see if we pass.	9-14
22	Tigers	-3	It's Tarik Skubal and Casey Mize time!! This Tuesday and Wednesday are the days we've been waiting for all year. Personally, I prefer Skubal over both Manning and Mize, but time will tell which one of the new crop of arms takes off the most. The most MLB-ready position player prospect, Isaac Paredes, is getting the call as well. This week: 4 at CWS, 3 at CLE.	9-10
23	Blue Jays	-0	The ever-exciting Blue Jays continue to find new and interesting ways to lose games. Bo Bichette is probably out for a month, and the Trash Birds are looking more likely to make the playoffs than the ~~Bisons~~ Blue Jays. But Charlie Montoyo has a message for all the would be worriers!	7-11
24	Angels	-3	I was reminded this week by a great Sam Miller article from back in 2016 on what would have happened if any of the teams ahead of the Angels had drafted Mike Trout. It's a great read, but essentially, it boils down to the fact that nearly every other team would have at some point been put over the top in the regular season and had made the playoffs in a season they otherwise didn't had he been on their team. One of the only exceptions to this? The Angels. They've made the playoffs with him once in a season they probably still would have made them without him. It's the most annoying thing to hear as an Angels fan, that they are wasting Mike Trout's career, but if they can't even make them in a year where over half the teams will, I think it's a conversation we're only going to hear more and more. Rightly so.	7-15
25	Royals	+2	The Royals might actually be better than we realized. They're 8-9 against teams that are over .500 and have a +7 run differencial in those games. Can they sneak into the postseason? They may have a better chance than Lloyd Christmas did.	9-13
26	Giants	-2	They are who we thought they were. The Giants have bad pitching, bad defense, bad management, and mediocre offense. After spending the week getting their shit pushed in by the Astros and A's, highlights of which included Zack Greinke calling his own pitches on the mound and Trevor Gott's ERA going up by over 12 whole runs, the Giants own the second worst run differential in the league at -43. This week they play the Angels, in a split series where Albert Pujols will almost certainly tie and then pass Willie Mays on the all time home run leaderboard, followed by the Bumgarner-less Diamondbacks. The only good thing about my new job being all night shifts is that I won't be able to subject myself to Gabe Kapler's Wild Ride on a nightly basis.	8-15
27	Red Sox	-2	I may have ranked the Red Sox 29th this week, but they're truly 30th in my heart. Did you know that over the last 6 games, the Red Sox averaged over 1 run per inning? That's right, the sox gave up 1.167 runs per inning for 6 whole games. I can't believe I'm saying this, but man I miss Rick Porcello. Give me 6 IP 5 ER again.	6-16
28	Mariners	0	Evan White's bat has tested positive for COVID-19 and has been quarantined. Evan is still cleared to play without it, however, his activity at the plate is suffering terribly from it. Here's to wishing his bat makes a full recovery.	7-16
29	Pirates	0	The Pittsburgh Pirates have quit unexpectedly. Please reboot the franchise and try again	4-14

N/A, Quarantined Team||Cardinals|0| The Cardinals are finally back! After going up against the White Sox and putting away both sides of a "doubleheader" and losing on Sunday, they're 4-4 on August 17. DAE this season is weird? |4-4

Helpful Baseball Handicapping Factors

*Helpful Baseball Handicapping Stats
We have all looked at a point spread or betting odds on an event and thought why is that team favored or why is the total that high. When betting sports it’s helpful to understand what some of the elements are that go into setting lines and prices. When betting baseball or any sport for that matter, it’s a good idea to consider as many different factors relative to the matchup as possible. However, in order to obtain a real edge you have to find information that may not already be factored into the line/price by the oddsmakers. In baseball, simply knowing the ERA of the two starting pitchers will not give you an edge because it’s likely already factored into the betting odds. You must scratch the surface and dig a little deeper in order to find out why odds are as they appear. This will ultimately help you find “actionable information” to gain an advantage.
With so much to consider, player stats, sabermetrics, team analytics, coaching tendencies and outside influences it’s tough to know where to start and where to end. You must establish a process or checklist of sorts. Below are some important baseball stats to consider, along with other aspects that can influence the betting odds. I should note that what’s listed below is also very likely factored into the betting odds but again it’s helpful knowing what goes into pricing teams.
Pitching
WHIP (Walks + Hits Per Inning) The majority of casual fans focus on ERA too much. It’s important to keep an eye on WHIP, which is the average number of hits and walks a pitcher gives up per inning pitched. The more runners a pitcher allows on base, the more likely it is they will give up a run. Rather than looking at overall ERA, keep an eye on WHIP.
Run Support Average It doesn’t matter how well a pitcher performs if he isn’t getting the run support required to win games. For as enticing as it is to pay close attention to pitcher statistics, run support is a key stat just as important when evaluating pitching matchups.
Strikeouts Per Nine Innings Pitched (K/9) K/9 is a underrated statistics for pitchers because it isn’t always used correctly. Pitcher with a high K/9 will usually thrive against an opponent with poor plate discipline. A team with good plate discipline could make a pitcher that relies heavily on K/9 pay for not relying on its defense.
G/F Rate G/F rate is one of the most useful stats for grading pitching matchups. The G/F ratio measures the tendency of ground balls given up by a pitcher versus the number of fly balls they give up. This statistic is best used in combination with evaluating whether a pitcher is playing in a hitter-friendly park or not. In smaller ballparks that favor the hitters, fly balls can be extremely dangerous. Then maybe add in weather etc and you got something.
Previous Starts Another number worth paying attention to is how the pitchers performed in previous starts. This is true not just for one game prior but for portions of a season at a glance. Sometimes past performance is one of the best indicators of how future performances will be.
Batting
Right/Left Handed Pitching Splits Adjust based on how teams have performed versus either right-handed or left-handed pitchers depending on who is on the mound.
Runs/9 Innings Simple but important, Runs per nine innings is as simple as it gets. How many runs do the teams playing one another average per game? Batting average and on base percentage are important factors but at the end of the day it’s all about production.
OBP (On Base Percentage) It is exactly what it sounds like. OBP is a more accurate representation of a batter's ability to get on base than their batting avg which is what a lot of people focus on. This will give you a percentage of time a batter gets on base compared to how many plate appearances. Walks, hit by pitch, fielder's choice are not normally factored into most hitting stats but they’re included into a batters on base percentage.
SLG% (Slugging Percentage) Slugging percentage is a popular measure of the power of a hitter. It is calculated as total bases divided by at bats but it weighs the type of hit, singles, doubles, triples and homeruns. Unlike batting average, slugging percentage gives more weight to extra-base hits. Plate appearances ending in walks are specifically excluded from this calculation, as an appearance that ends in a walk is not counted as an at bat.
Other Helpful Handicapping Factors
Home/Road Splits As is the case in most team sports, MLB teams tend to perform better at home than on the road. There will always be a couple of teams that perform slightly better on the road and it’s good to know who they are.
Batting Lineups This might be more important than ever before. With teams playing 9 games in 10 days managers must get creative with resting key players and juggling their lineups. Lineups are typically listed 3-4 hours before first pitch and I’ve noticed a lot of Daily Fantasy sites are quick with listing lineups and are good to bookmark. In baseball missing a key player is just as important as other sports.
Also it’s good to know each teams strong side of the plate and the lefty vs righty splits. Teams that have a lot of strong lefty hitters may struggle vs a lefty pitcher but thrive vs a righty and vice versa. Managers tend to play different lineups based on the pitching matching and try to get righty batter vs lefty pitchers and lefty hitters vs righty pitchers. So knowing different teams' strong and weak side and which pitcher they’re facing is absolutely factored into prices on a team.
Bullpens The key with bullpens is usage. If we see a bullpen go through 8 pitchers one night it’s likely the next game the starting pitcher will have to go further into the game than normal. This season is a little different because of the expanded rosters (think each team has 3 or 4 extra players) and will have a few extra arms in the bullpen.
Also if you notice you are losing games late and your research is largely based on starting pitching matchups you should strongly consider betting first 5 inning bets rather than full game.
Weather / BallParks It’s important to understand the impact that weather can have on the games. Not direction, but temperature and humidity all can play a significant factor. It’s better to combine weather with ballpark. Wrigley field is a popular ballpark as it relates to wind direction. As much as I love that trend it’s outdated. Wrigley field put up wind screens in the outfield and now have giant scoreboards that significantly cut down on wind. The Wrigley field system was so strong years ago that it still shows it being a profitable system now even though the edge has been gone for awhile now.
It’s important to know the difference between ballparks, not all stadiums are the same. For example, we are all familiar with Coors field, the thin air at altitude increases the flight of the ball. 1,000ft of altitude = 7ft of extra ball flight Denver elevation is 5,280ft = Roughly 35 extra feet Interesting note about Coors field is when they designed the park they didn’t take the altitude into consideration and balls were flying out of the park, they decided to push the walls back to adjust for it, this ultimately cause the outfield to be wayyy more spaced out and Colorado has led the league in extra base hits because of this change.
Another ballpark that is uniquely related to weather is Chase Field, home of the Arizona Diamondbacks and the desert heat. They do have a retractable roof so it’s important to pay attention if they’re playing with it open or closed. One of my previous jobs was to just call the ball parks and asked about the roofs and if it will be open or closed. There are 6 other retractable roof stadiums in baseball besides Chase Field. And when betting totals be aware of the roofs. The Rogers Centre(TOR) SafeCo Field(SEA), Minute Maid Park(HOU), Miller Park(MIL), Marlins Stadium(MIA) and newly added Globe Life Park(TEX)
10 degree increase in temp = 1% increase in extra distance 1mph of wind = 3ft in distance 1in decrease in air pressure = 1.5% increase in distance
When looking at stadiums get familiar with the shapes, some are just giant blocks and the wind doesn’t touch the field, others are more open and act like a wind tunnel. A fly ball pitcher in Cincinnati might struggle more so than in San Diego, Cincinnati has an open field concept and the winds can blow through the field and San Diego is closed in and blocks the wind. Some of the California parks near the coast have a marine layer that dead’s fly balls, all these little things add up to how a team is priced. Below is a really good weather site for baseball that I like to use
Umpires Umps are supposed to call games without bias and with consistency game to game. The reality is, humans have different tendencies and over a large enough sample size it reveals itself. Some umpires may have a small strike zone, which tends to result in tougher, frustrating outings for pitchers. Some umpires have a bigger strike zone, which can force hitters to protect the plate more and swing at bad pitches. Major League umpire Manny Gonzalez umped his first game back in May of 2011. In games where he is the home plate umpire in charge of calling balls and strikes the games have gone over the posted total 57.6% of the time (133-98-19). I’m sure he is calling the game fair with unbiased judgment but his idea of what is a strike might be different in comparison to another umpire. Ron Kulpa has been a major league umpire for roughly 15 years. Kulpa has been the home plate umpire in well over 400 games and the under in his games occur 57% of the time when he is behind home plate, 246-186-25 is Kulpa’s under record. I’m sure both Kulpa and Gonzalez are attempting to call games honest and fair, they just have certain tendencies and over time they become apparent.
Batters know which umps have a small strike zone and they can be more selective and umpires who have larger strike zones the batter has to be more aggressive. Same goes for pitchers, they know which umps will give them the call on the edge of the plate. I personally don’t believe making a wager based solely on who is behind home plate is smart but it’s not a bad idea to be aware of who is. When betting all sports, it’s important to apply as many contributing factors to your decision as possible and umpires are a good contributing factor to apply.

Your 2020 Season Survival Guide and R/Baseball Refresher!

Before we dive in, if you want to participate in the annual Call Your Shot season predictions contest, you can find it here.
It's FINALLY coming! Welcome to the 2020 MLB Season! We are so glad you are here. Don't let the length of this post scare you, we just wanted to consolidate all the relevant information that people have questions about into one place to start the season off. This is your survival guide for the 2020 season, it should have all the pertinent information to answer most of your questions!
If you are a brand new fan I'd recommend going through most of it, if you're a veteran you'll know which sections you'll want to read by their headings. My goal here is that both new and returning fans can learn how to better enjoy the season and know what's going on on Baseball this year. Okay, take some time and read through what you want to read through below!
This is the fourth year of doing this. Every year I go through the previous years comments to find things that should be added or corrected for the next edition, so if you have any great resources or information that you think would be beneficial to add, please comment it below!
Sections:

Introduction for new and renewed interest fans.
Rule changes for 2020
Finding a Team
Knowing Where Different Teams Stand
Baseball
Your Team's Sub
Twitter, Podcasts, and Other General News/Analysis Sources
The Statistical Titans: Baseball Reference and Fangraphs
Where to watch? Your TV and Streaming Guide
MLB.tv
MLB At Bat App
How to watch baseball.
Where to watch highlights and game recaps.
TL;DR: Find a way to enjoy the game.

Introduction for new and renewed interest fans.

Baseball normally has a long season. I don't just mean that in terms of time between opening day and the World Series (which can be considered long as it is), but also the 162 games played in 183 days, 18-20 times against the same 4 teams each. It can be daunting, and many people lose interest by "the dog days" of June and July. This year things are going to be a little different. With only 60 games on the schedule (assuming we make it through without a major clubhouse covid outbreak that cancels games versus that team) every game is going to matter about 3x as much as one in a normal regular season. Tensions will be high, but we might not feel it because there won't be that much crowd noise. THAT SAID - they're still playing 60 games in 66 days, which means almost every day for the next two months isn't just packed with baseball, they're packed with YOUR FAVORITE TEAMS baseball, which while exciting after months without any American sports in the regular season (MLS - a tournament is not the regular season) can end up feeling overwhelming when you just finished watching a late game go into extras then wake up to realize there's an afternoon game on in six hours.
This guide is meant to help you if you wish to avoid being one of those who feels overwhelmed and loses interest a couple weeks after Opening Day.
First and foremost if you are a new fan or newly returning, you must remember one thing: you do not need to watch every game. Many football fans, and even some basketball and hockey fans, find this difficult, they're used to setting aside a few nights a week to watch their team, and they can watch all the games. Baseball isn't like that. For the next two months, your team will only have 6 days where they won't be playing a game. And some of the games they play will start as early as 9:20am (Pacific Time), others will end after 1am (Eastern Time). If you miss a game it's okay, odds are there's another one tomorrow. If you miss a week, no big deal, hell if you get busy for a few months and aren't able to watch you team, that's not an issue, because you can still follow your team.
Baseball is a game to be followed. In the old days it meant picking up the morning paper and checking the box scores. Now it means being able to have a final score texted/tweeted/messaged/emailed/what-evered to you the minute the game ends, or rolling over in bed when you can't sleep and grabbing your phone to check the West Coast scores. It means being able to check reddit in the morning to see any breaking news from across the league, or catch a story you missed. We live in a time where you can go to MLB.com and get a recap of every game from last night in less than 10 minutes. Honestly, baseball was made to be consumed, and the technology age makes it easier than ever, whether you want to spend hours every day pouring over stats and analysis, or 15 seconds to see how your team and their playoff rivals did today.
The rest of this guide is mostly dedicated to ways that you can help yourself follow your team, and if you have time follow the entirety of MLB.
Anyways, enough rambling, TL;DR Don't worry if you miss games, there'll be one tomorrow.

Rule Changes for 2020

For this season only (or so they say...):

The NL will utilize the DH full time.
In extra innings the person in the batting order immediately before the lead off hitter will start on second base.
Games suspended due to rain will continue play at a later date rather than be washed out and restarted.
Arguing within six feet of an umpire or participating in a fight will be met with heftier fines and suspensions this yaer.
Pitchers will be allowed a wet rag to be brought out from the dugout in lieu of being able to lick their fingers for better grip.
Each team has a 20 extra players in their "taxi squad" in addition to their active roster and 40-man roster.
Active rosters will start at 30 players, then will be cut to 28 after two weeks, then 26 after four weeks.
Spitting is not allowed.
Non-social distanced celebrations are not allowed.

Permanent (as any rule change can be in baseball) rule changes for 2020 and beyond:

Three batter minimum - pitcher entering the game must face a minimum of three batters unless they complete an inning.
The MLB Active Roster is expanded from 25 players to 26 players.

Finding a Team

I always recommend following the local team since you'll have more access to news about them in the local media and should be able to get their radio broadcast, as well as TV broadcasts of them if you have cable/satellite/streaming, and depending on where you're at the occasional over the air game, but if you don't live by a team or don't want to follow the local team, or are just looking for a second team to follow, I wrote this in depth guide to picking a team that's the right fit for you.

Knowing Where Different Teams Stand

Every year ESPN, Sports Illustrated, FOX, NBS, and every other sports related site puts out their season previews. These are great for getting a basic rundown of what is going on with each team, and a simple google search will bring up a plethora of possible articles to read.
If what you really want is a fans perspective on what each team's expectations condensed into a few short comments, I'd highly recommend going through each teams day from our annual "Why will X team exceed expectations?" series. All the previous posts are linked in the Astros thread.

Baseball

Alright, so plugging baseball on baseball seems a bit redundant, but I think it's a good reminder that this is a great hub for all your MLB news throughout the season while still letting you see the occasional amazing college/minor league/foreign league performance.
During the season there are a number of features to keep you informed of all the goings on around baseball.
Every day of the season (and a portion of the offseason) we have General Discussion threads we call Around the Horn. These are great places to ask questions and discuss anything that you want to know about baseball but don't feel like it deserves it's own post. In the Around the Horn post you'll be able to see a full schedule of what is going on around Baseball every week.
Here are the weekly features:
Daily: Nightly Pick'Em - A six year running contest to pick the result of one game every day. Details can be found in this thread.
Monday: Power Rankings - A team of 30 fans from every team in baseball, led by ~~masochist~~ fearless leader kasutori_jack, releases their composite power rankings of the 30 teams. This leads to well thought out discussions and some in depth analysis, as well as salty fans crying about how their team is underrated (there may be more of the latter than the former, but it's still a great way to keep your finger on the pulse of how every team is doing).
Monday (Unofficial) - The last few years thekmanpwnudwn has posted a State of the Subreddits post that gives the top post from each team's subreddit from the last week. This is a great roundup post for staying up to date on what all the different team fandoms are feeling, and helps you catch any milestones you might have otherwise missed.
Tuesday: Weekly Awards - Led by lemcoe9 a different team of a fan from every team releases the results of their weekly (and monthly) voting for who the best position player and pitcher was since the last vote was taken. Once again, a great way to keep track of which players are on hot streaks, and who's dominating the league.
Wednesday: Wild Card Wednesday - Each week a new contest, trivia game, or just out of the box fun thread will be stickied! Got an idea? Let the mods know!
Thursdays: Division Discussions - We rotate between the Easts, Centrals, and Wests to do some more in depth talk about where the playoff races and teams stand. If you only have time for one baseball thread every week and want to keep up with the league, this is the thread to set aside time for.
Friday: Trash Talk/Compliment/Complaint - FRIDAYS ARE FUN DAYS, WE ROTATE BETWEEN TRASH TALK, COMPLIMENT, TRASH TALK, AND COMPLAIN THREADS! TRADITION STATES ALL COMMENTS BE IN ALL CAPS AND ENDING IN EXCLAMATION POINTS! WE ROTATE RATHER THAN HAVE A SET DAY FOR EACH ALL SEASON BECAUSE IT'S A LONG SEASON AND ANY ONE OF THE THREE THREADS CAN GET STALE FAST IF YOU DON'T LEAVE TIME FOR MORE AMMUNITION!
Saturday: Saturday is when we usually plug in occasional things that don't necessarily deserve weekly attention. Things like in depth stat discussions, memorobilia sharing, craft projects, etc.
Sunday: Game of the Week - Sunday is the one day a week where we get together as a subreddit to watch a baseball game together, since it's the one time every week where there's only one game going on and there's guaranteed to be a game. The Sunday Night Baseball game thread is usually posted a couple hours before the first pitch.
In addition the playoffs, and select premier match-ups (mostly at the very end of the season where there is a lot riding on a regular season game) we host game threads for all baseball users. These are neutral thread, for more info on less neutral ones skip to the next section. We may experiment with game threads in baseball for the MLB.tv Free Game of the Day this year.
In addition to all these features, it really is a great place to keep up with breaking news and highlights. It'll be posted here minutes after someone tweets it, and long before it's on MLB.com. Team beat writers get the stories first, and it's easier to check in here a couple times a day than follow every one of them. Plus there's something the kids are calling "dank memes" (but not too many, because us mods don't allow too much moisture to get into the servers).

Your Team's Subreddit (And other team subs as well)

The mods at baseball have one goal - help you have the best possible reddit baseball experience, and a LOT of that is helping you get connected to other fans of your team (which feels a little like a cop-out because it means less work for us if you're doing more on your team's sub, but your team's mods aren't complaining.)
One of the main draws of team subs (other than in depth discussion with like-fan-minded users, getting breaking news and analysis on your team, team-memes, and other reddit discussions that come up from a group of individuals who can agree on one thing) are game threads. At this time (to the best of my knowledge) every team sub hosts game threads for their team's games, and you can easily access them in the sidebar during the season by clicking on the team's logo in the schedule (we're working on getting that up to speed, MLB changed some parts of their RSS and background data and we've had to work around that to get our automated system back up). We like to keep the game threads in team subs for a few reasons, one of which is we want to support the team subs and send them relevant traffic when we can because they really do an amazing job, another is because with 15 games a day this place would look like crap if we had game threads for every game or let users post them as they please (we've tried it, it blots out news, discussion, and highlights and looks like crap, baseball doesn't have only a couple days set aside for games or focus on marquee match ups like many other sports, it's 2430 games played in 183 days and is better when it's spread out.)
Even if you're not a game thread person though, getting connected with a good team sub can make disappointing seasons more bearable, and great seasons more exciting, and I know plenty of users that said that their team's sub basically keeps them fans. Team subs are also a great place to get connected to...

Twitter, Podcasts, and other General News/Analysis Sources

Going to be honest here, I don't use twitter and I do not frequently read other people's blogs. I know many people do and enjoy it, and I believe the best way to find the people to follow/sites to visit that interest you the most are to hang around your team's sub and note which Tweets/Sites that are linked to that most often peak your interest. Your list of favorite baseball writers is going to be different than my favorite list, and finding the right twitter personalities, podcasts hosts, and bloggers can make game analysis more interesting for you even if your team is playing like crap and it's the middle of July.
Here are some common suggestions for some general baseball twitter accounts and podcasts to get you started, but like I said, find what you like and follow those:
Twitter

Account	Account	Account
@MLB	@Ken_Rosenthal	@Buster_ESPN
@jonmorosi	@mlbtraderumors	@MiLB
@JeffPassan	@MLBInjuryNews	@BNightengale
@keithlaw	@based_ball	@SamMillerBB
@jonahkeri	@BaseballAmerica	@brooksbaseball
@BenLindbergh	@ChrisCotillo	@mike_petriello
@MJ_Baumann	@FanRagSports	@TheAthleticMLB
@fangraphs	@baseballprospectus	@baseball_ref
@daynperry	@CBSSportsMLB	@CespedesBBQ
@GrantBrisbee	@JonHeyman	@cantpitch
@MLBRosterMoves	@darenw	@extrabaggs

Podcasts

Account	Account	Account
Effectively Wild	Baseball Tonight	The Ringer

The Statistical Titans: Baseball Reference and Fangraphs

Literally every day you will find a link or to BaseballReference.com or Fangraphs.com here, it's a given, and it's because these are the two most extensive free baseball databases that are easy to navigate. If you want to look up anything about baseball history, check Baseball Reference, if you want to look up how players stack up with non-proprietary advanced metrics or read an insightful blog post about why someone is overrated/underrated or overperforming/underperforming, check Fangraphs. With these two sites you have all the stats and figures you need to make a competent argument for basically anything you want with a little cherry picking.
A large part of the modern baseball world is statistics and you're going to find yourself getting more immersed in discussing the game if you can get a handle on all the terms getting thrown around. If you are brand new to baseball, take a little while to get to know the game before diving into these sites, but if you have a handle on the basics and are ready to know what this WAR everyone is talking about is, dive into the glossaries and find the statistics.
When you get the basics, creating your own analysis doesn't seem as daunting, and one of the reasons I love baseball is that I can deconstruct pretty much every play and find some meaning behind it. If you are like that and enjoy numbers, theoretical projections, and breaking things down into simple figures before reconstructing them into something long and beautiful, then learning the basics of sabrmetrics will make you a baseball fan for life. If, on the other hand, you just want to enjoy the game for the beautiful pastime that it is by watching, then we've got a little bit to go through...

Where to Watch? - Your TV and Streaming Guide

So a big part of baseball is, you know, actually being able to watch the games (though as I talk about at the end, it might not necessarily be the case for you, and that doesn't mean you can't enjoy baseball, skip down and see what I'm talking about in the final section).
First off, if you are looking for free games to watch, you are in luck! MLB.tv streams one game a day for free on MLB.com and Yahoo.com. These games are subject to local blackouts (details on those in the MLB.tv section) but are definitely worth watching if you're trying to see if you'll enjoy baseball, or just need a free baseball fix. Facebook is also streaming one game a week during the season for free. The other free games available are from May 18 to July 13 on Saturday night and Thursday nights in September when FOX airs games on their OTA affiliated networks. Believe it or not, TV antennas still work in most areas, and these games are free to watch. Some teams also broadcast select games on OTA networks in their region.
Okay, so now the more expensive stuff. If you have even the most basic cable package (or log in information) you probably have ESPN. ESPN airs games every Sunday Night as well as Wednesday Night and Opening Weekend. These games are also available on ESPN Go.
You also probably have a regional sports channel. This is where almost all of your local teams games will be aired. Here is a decent breakdown of every team and what network they are carried on.
TBS is also on even the most basic networks, they air games the final 13 Sundays of the regular season in the afternoon.
FS1 and FOX carry baseball games almost every Saturday of the season, and MLB Network carries games pretty much every day.
A list of currently scheduled national broadcasts is available here, not all games have been chosen so there will be more added to the list.
For all these networks (except for the Dodgers, Orioles, and Nationals regional networks) there are options to stream the games online provided you have cable login information for the channel. During the playoffs FS1, TBS, and MLB Network will carry most of the games, with ESPN carrying a wild card game and FOX carrying the World Series.
Now there are also streaming services that grant access to most of the previously mentioned channels:

Sling TV Orange package gets you ESPN, ESPN 2, and TBS.
Sling TV Blue package gets you FOX, FS1, FS2, TBS, and most regional sports networks.
Youtube TV gets you FOX, ESPN, ESPN 2, FS1, TBS, MLB Network, and some regional sports networks.
HULU Live gets you FOX, ESPN, ESPN 2, FS1, FS2, TBS, and your regional sports networks.
Playstation Vue Access gets you FOX, ESPN, ESPN 2, FS1, FS2, and TBS.
Playstation Vue Core adds MLB Network to the Access channels.
Playstation Vue Sports Extra adds regional sports networks in addition to your other channels.
AT&T TV Now Live a Little gets you FOX, ESPN, ESPN 2, FS1, and TBS and your regional sports networks.
AT&T TV Now Just Right adds MLB Network to the Live a Little channels.
AT&T TV Now Go Big adds FS2 to the Just Right channels.
FUBO Premier gets you FOX, FS1, and your regional sports networks

Also, ESPN+ will carry select games pretty much daily throughout the season.

MLB.TV - the Ultimate Fan Investment

Alright, so a few things to cover with this, first of all YOU WILL NOT BE ABLE TO LEGALLY STREAM IN MARKET GAMES IF YOU LIVE IN THE UNITED STATES. MLB.tv uses your IP address to see where you are located, and if it pings back that you are in a team's home market it will not let you watch the game LIVE. Here is where you can find what games MLB.tv will black you out from. National broadcasts on ESPN, FOX, and TBS are also subject to blackouts within the United States (MLB Network games are not). Before you ask, yes there are less than legal ways to get around this (spoofing your IP address, subreddit dedicated to mlb streams, etc.), but I won't be talking about those in detail here. IF YOU ARE OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES AND CANADA, YOU WILL HAVE NO BLACKOUTS.
Even if you are blacked out, you will be able to watch the game 90 minutes after it finishes, so if you work a late shift or stay up late it might be worth it for you anyways even if you only want to follow one team.
Military members and college students, don't forget to apply your 35% discount!
"But I don't want to watch EVERY out of market game, I just want to watch MY team!" Cool, for $25 less there's a single team option that will allow you to watch all your team's non-blacked out games! Personally, I'd pay the extra $25 for the opportunity to watch every Kershaw, Bumgarner, and Scherzer start, or put the Cubs on in the background while working on a Friday afternoon, but to each their own.
"But I don't want to commit for a full year!" That's okay, there's a monthly option as well in case you know there are months where you can't watch as much.
Some of the fun features of MLB.tv include the ability to watch four games at once and quickly swap your audio from one to another (seriously, I'm never on commercial break when I'm watching baseball, unless there's only one game on I'm able to watch it all, and in September that's huge) and condensed games. What are condensed games? They go through and cut out all the time between pitches and innings, meaning if you want to watch a whole game in less than a half hour (or are searching desperately for a play to make a .gif or streamable out of that for some reason isn't considered a highlight) it's really easy. If you're someone who really wants to get into the game but can't figure out how to grind through watching a full game, Condensed Games are great for keeping up with a team while you learn the little details between pitches that somehow make watching the catcher twiddle his fingers exciting for some fans.
Also, new this year, MLB has added some great baseball documentaries to your MLB.tv subscription, giving you access to more than just games for the first time.
In addition, there are two great resources to enhance your total immersion into baseball if there are multiple games going on. Please note for both of these you must already be logged into MLB.tv to make them work. The first, and most basic, is Brooks Baseball's MLB.TV Redzone. It will automatically take you to the highest leverage game going on, and will automatically shift you to another game between innings OR if another game enters a higher leverage situation. For a more personalized touch, The Baseball Guage has MLB.TV Game Changer which lets you customize your preferences so MLB.tv will always switch to the game that is most relevant to you. This is great if you play fantasy and want to keep up with your players, are waiting for someone to hit a milestone, or if you want to make sure your action is broken into to follow a no-hitter in progress.
It also gives you a free subscription to...

MLB AtBat - The Most Underrated Way to Stay Connected to Baseball

MLB AtBat is MLB's official application. It comes in two versions, the free version which has ads but is useful for keeping up to date with all the scores, and the paid version ($19.99 for the year of $2.99 monthly) which gives you access to ad-free content, Gameday on your mobile device, and (most valuable) access to every team's radio stream for every game during the season and postseason completely blackout free. If there's a day game, you can bet I'm listening to it at work, if I'm mowing the lawn on a Saturday I'm listening to a game, when I can't sleep at night, on comes a West Coast game. To get the paid version you must download the free version, then subscribe within the app, or log into an MLB account that has MLB.tv.
Baseball was made to be on the radio, it's a sport that is very easy to follow the action with the right announcer. At work (or school) it's great because you can half listen, and when the announcer gets excited you can instantly tune back in to hear what's going on. This is the most underrated way to stay connected to your team throughout the year. Before I could afford MLB.tv, this was the way to go, and it honestly makes me question every year whether getting the MLB.tv package is worth is when I can get 80% of the entertainment value from listening to the games (and every year I manage to forget to unsubscribe, for many reasons listed above).
Gameday on mobile is also a great feature, it lets you quickly check in on the action during brief recesses in meetings (or under the table during meetings), or breaks between classes (or under a desk in classes). This is honestly my primary means of keeping track of Twins games throughout the year. My wife thinks I'm crazy when I could just watch the game, but instead am nervously checking my phone every couple minutes. IF I WATCH I JINX THE TEAM, HONEY!

How to watch baseball?

So this is a question that we get from many new fans who are just trying to figure out what the hell is going on and why people find this game so fascinating. I'll get the elephant in the room out of the way, yes there are some "boring" parts of watching baseball on TV. The camera fans to a batter spitting and adjusting his gloves, the pitcher adjusts his crotch then licks his fingers, random shots of a bored looking manager, etc. When you are actually at the ballpark you can be watching where the catcher and fielders set up to try to predict the pitch that is coming (read The Hidden Language of Baseball by Paul Dickson for some great insight into how to interpret this), but on TV it's not usually the case. This is where I have some suggestions for new fans trying to get into it.
First off, if you are looking for just a relaxing day, embrace the slow pace with a beer and veg out on the couch while watching. It's meant to be slow and relaxing (until it gets tense and exciting, usually with runners on). Seriously, when was the last time you just sat and did nothing? Mid July afternoon games are a perfect way to reach that zen of half-consciousness, until something happens to get you sucked into the action.
Another option to stay engaged is keeping score. I find keeping score relaxing and looking back through a scorebook can be fun to see what you were doing a few years ago (except for that damn unfinished scorecard from 2015 where A-Rod hit the most predictable home run in Twins-Yankees history and I sent my scorecard flying to the other side of the room). As NPR once put it, keeping score is a knowledge making activity, and if you have the time and patience for it it is a great way to learn the game. There are a couple different guides to keeping score, and most scorebooks/cards will have a brief example of how to do so. If you have any questions, the Around the Horn thread is a great place to ask!
Gamethreads are another way to get together with other baseball fans and pass the time between pitches, especially in team subs you get to know the regulars and conversations start to wonder away from baseball at times throughout the game, and that's fine. Baseball is an excuse to enjoy a summer day.
For those that want to actually understand what is going on during that time, though, there are some options. Watching Baseball Smarter by Zack Hample (who despite his reputation on this subreddit knows some stuff and actually pops in from time to time to comment on different things) is a good starting place for new fans. Baseball for Dummies and The Complete Idiots Guide to Baseball are also good starting points for those willing to sit and read for a little bit.
For those who don't want to read a book, I guess I can touch on what I'm looking for between pitches. A big part of baseball is pitch selection, so scouting out a pitchers repertoire of pitches is a good starting point, BrooksBaseball.net has great cheat sheets on every pitcher in the game, and PitcherList.com has a visual example of each pitcher's pitches so you can see what you can be looking for. Anyways, I mention that because the whole reason the catcher is twiddling his fingers behind the plate is to go over with the pitcher what pitch is going to be thrown. What I'm watching for between pitches is where the catcher is setting up behind the plate and guessing which pitch is going to be thrown. A 2-0 and 3-1 count are known as hitters counts because the pitcher needs to throw a strike or risk walking the batter, when the count reaches either of those pay attention, because the hitters going to be looking for his perfect pitch and there's probably going to be some action on the field. 0-1, 0-2, and 1-2 are pitcher's counts, look for curveball, slider or other somewhat nasty pitch to be thrown to get the batter to swing at a bad pitch, or a fastball inside to catch them off guard. If you have any questions about this, go ahead and ask in an around the horn thread.

Where to watch highlights and game recaps.

There are many many places to see highlights and game recaps, this is not an exhaustive list, but is a good start.
For highlights, bigger highlights will often be posed here on baseball a few minutes after they occur, if you wish to post them please familiarize yourself with the subreddit rules. They also appear relatively quickly on MLB.com in each games Gameday area. For a pretty slick collection of highlights from across MLB, https://baseball.theate is a great place to exclusively watch highlights.
There are a few ways to get great game recaps. If you have MLB Network, every day Quick Pitch is an hour-long show that recaps every game from the previous day. It usually starts after MLB Tonight (about 10pm EDT) or whatever game MLB Network is showing finishes up, and runs until 10am EDT the next day. MLB.com also puts out recaps of every game by the next morning, usually a 2-5 minutes quick rundown of highlights that can be found on the game recap. It also puts out Fastcast videos on youtube and their website every morning which has a brief rundown of all the games from the previous day. Here's an example of a Fastcast from two seasons ago.
If you want one concise place to see most of these, efitz11 was amazing last season and posted video links to every game recap and fastcast in the daily Around the Horn thread. Here's an example. I am unsure if they plan to continue it this year, but it would be surely appreciated!

TL;DR Finding what you enjoy about the game.

When it boils down to it, baseball is about finding entertainment and enjoyment, and don't let anyone try to tell you how to enjoy baseball. If you want nothing to do with statistical analysis and just want to enjoy what's going on on the field, don't let anyone tell you you aren't enough of a fan, and if you want to dissect a player into their strengths and components using statcast and advanced metrics don't let anyone tell you you're reading into the game too much. You can follow one team, and only one team, or you can follow multiple teams, don't let anyone tell you you're not a true fan for wearing another team's gear or enjoying their games. You might enjoy bat flips and flamboyance, or reserved speedy home run trots. You might not even enjoy physically watching a game (especially not if your team isn't playing), but find yourself loving keeping track of your team through the season and tracking your players or maybe just the thrill of the standings race and scoreboard watching or maybe you just love all the numbers that get thrown around and arguing about their relevancy. That's okay, eventually I believe enjoyment of the game itself will come, but even if it doesn't, the long baseball season is still creating a place of enjoyment for you, and that's what matters. If you have any questions, once again, feel free to ask them in our daily Around the Horn thread, or below in the comments, or if you really want to feel free to PM with questions and I'd be happy to answer.
So watch games this week and join in the discussion here, you'll naturally find yourself gravitating towards certain players or teams and enjoying different aspects of the game. Baseball is a long season, find what you enjoy, stick to it, dwell on it, and enjoy it.
TL;DR for the TL;DR - Baseball is fun

How are the Padres Contenders?

This is something I really don't get. The Padres are filled with holes in their lineup, rotation, and bullpen, with only 4 real strengths (Paddack, Machado, Tatis, Yates), even if you're optimistic. And yet, they're constantly put near or above the division rival DBacks (who seem far stronger to me except the bullpen) and wild card rival Phillies, Reds, etc., who all feel like much better teams. So WHERE IS IT? I'm posting this for a reason, it's not like I'm unknowledgeable on the Padres. I know the team very well. Let me quickly explain why, for every player, I don't see them competing. I will include the best case, most likely case, and worst case scenario in WAR that I can see for each player, and also for the whole team. To make things easier for me, I'll use a full year estimate. (48 wins is replacement level)
SP- Chris Paddack. Paddack was rushed to the MLB and had an amazing rookie year, clearly pulling in as the Padre ace. I think he's extremely overrated. His FIP was much higher than his ERA, and his xFIP was even worse. I think he's a 2/3 starter on most teams at best. No way is he an ace on a true contender. Best Case- 5 WAR Most Likely- 3 WAR Worst Case- 1 WAR
SP- Dinelson Lamet. I get there's upside here. I really do. But the upside is still only middle rotation, and that doesn't cut it for your number 2 starter. He needs more than 2 pitches to succeed. BC- 2 ML- .5 WC- -1
SP- Garrett Richards. Once again, there's some upside here, but Richards is a bottom of the order guy on most teams. And the upside isn't that great. BC- 2 ML- 1 WC- 0
SP- Zack Davies. Again, upside, but Davies just isn't a great pitcher either. BC- 2.5 ML- 1 WC- 0
SP- Joey Lucchesi. At this point, Lucchesi's upside has basically melted to a number 4 starter. And his downside is downright awful. BC- 1 ML- 0 WC- -1.5
CL- Kirby Yates. Really, I like Yates. He's old, and unlikely to be as good as last year, but I don't have a bone to pick here. BC- 2.5 ML- 1.5 WC- .5
RP- Drew Pomeranz. I don't think Pomeranz is as good as his stats last year. I'd bet on mediocre from him. BC- 1.5 ML- .5 WC- -.5
RP- Craig Stammen. He's a solid reliever, can't deny that. He's getting up there in years too though. BC- 2 ML- 1.5 WC- .5
RP- Matt Strohm. There's enough upside here, and the downside still isn't that bad. BC- 1.5 ML- 1 WC- .5
RP- Tim Hill. Very eh. BC- .5 ML- 0 WC- -.5
RP- Cal Quantrill. Just hope he isn't as bad as last year. BC- 1 ML- 0 WC- -1
RP- Pierce Johnson. Hasn't pitched in a year, and was terrible when he did? No thank you. BC- .5 ML- -.5 WC- -1
RP- Javy Guerra. Could be promising. BC- 1 ML- 0 WC- -1
RP- Luis Perdomo. Now here's some bottom bullpen upside. I really do like Perdomo. BC- 1.5 ML- .5 WC- -.5
RP- David Bednar. Interesting enough for a young reliever. BC- 1 ML- 0 WC- -.5
C- Francisco Mejia. Plenty of upside with the bat, but questionable upside, and frankly if he hits like last year then there will be rouble. BC- 2.5 ML- 1 WC- -1
C- Austin Hedges. Great, great defense. But absolutely no bat. BC- 2 ML- 1 WC- 0
1B- Eric Hosmer. Well... I guess him trying to prove his launch angle is encouraging? BC- 3.5 ML- 1.5 WC- 0
2B- Jurickson Profar. Why did the Padres trade for him again? This is a pathetic, replacement or worse starter. BC- 1 ML- 0 WC- -1
SS- Fernando Tatis. Honestly I don't think Tatis is as good as people make him out to be. I see his upside on the offensive side as Francisco Lindor with only 28-33 home runs... at his peak. I don't see him being better than a slightly above average defensive shortstop, once again at his peak. Don't forget he plays in Petco so the offense will be suppressed a bit. As for this year, if it were 162 games, I'd expect him to slash around .265/.325/.450. He is not a star yet. BC- 6 ML- 3 WC- 1.5
3B- Manny Machado. If you haven't given up on the idea that Machado is a superstar, or even just a star, check his home/away splits with the Orioles. He went from a pretty hitter friendly park to a quite pitcher friendly park. What he did last year is what you should expect from him going forwards. Now, that's still a fairly decent player, but it's not a $300 million one bet you Padres fans are wishing they'd grabbed Harper instead. BC- 4 ML- 2.5 WC- 1
LF- Tommy Pham. I expect him to pull an Eric Hosmer. He hits the ball into the ground a lot, like Hosmer, but he's not quite as good a hitter as Hosmer was before becoming a Padre, so it seems realistic. Feel free to disagree here, but I'm actually not knocking off too much from his current produciton. BC- 4 ML- 2 WC- .5
CF- Trent Grisham. Could be a good, but not great, player. I could see him contributing a bit. BC- 3 ML- 1.5 WC- .5
RF- Wil Myers. I don't... really... see him being good. Maybe he stays healthy and puts up a pretty poor 20/20 season, but for me that's the best case scenario. BC- 2 ML- 1 WC- -.5

Overall, other than the bullpen, this does not feel like a team ready for a playoff push. Don't get me wrong, the prospects are great and the young core is solid, it just doesn't feel like it's ready. I actually don't blame the Padres for the expectations of the team. It seems like the public is doing the hyping FOR them. And I just can not see it. I will add 2 WAR to my estimates to account for bench players, pinch hitters, etc. Keep in mind that hitting the best case I project or coming within, say, 3 games of it would be about a .1% shot. Ditto my worst case, and maybe for as many as 15 games around it. I find both extremely unlikely, as literally everything would have to go either right or wrong. Assume my projection with 2/3 to 3/4 certainty is within 3 or 4 games of my most likely estimate. By my estimates, here's the team's projected wins- Best Case- 100 wins. Most Likely Case- 74 Worst Case- 47.5 As you can see, I expect the Padres to not even come close to the playoffs in their most likely scenario, as you usually need around 87, and my projected 74 is nowhere near it. If this year were a normal year, I would give the Padres about a 1% chance to make the playoffs... if that. In their absolute, best case scenario, they still wouldn't win as many games as the Dodgers. I really just don't see the upside in the lineup, and there's too many pitfalls with guys like Lamet, Lucchesi, and Profar taking up starting spots. To me, their "star" hitters just won't cut it, and they don't have a rotation or depth. If you feel as though I am seriously off on anyone, feel free to comment, but please offer a detailed explanation as to why. I've literally spent months puzzling over this and haven't figured it out.

Debunking Expected Arguments... Preemptively. If you want to talk about something, and it's in here, don't. Please.
Chris Paddack- But he's an ace, and he's got Petco on his side, right? Yeah, but even with that, I wouldn't have expected him to pitch more than 180ish innings this year, and no better than a 3.2ish FIP... even with Petco. Paddack is good, but he's not as elite as some people are making him out to be. 5 WAR, his best case scenario, is a very good pitcher WAR and would probably earn him Cy Young votes. The 3 WAR as his most likely scenario is borderline all star, still very good, but that's where I expect him to be. Not elite.
The Bullpen- I actually doubt I'll get many arguments on the bullpen. 2.5 WAR (Yate's best case scenario) is very generous for a reliever, and I rated it, even in its most likely scenario, as a quality bullpen. So my point here is... I basically rated it as well if not better than the hype.
Tatis- Probably even more hyped than Guerro these days. Which is what I think the primary cause of the Padre overhype is. Guerro actually did BETTER than Tatis by the underlying numbers. Tatis should've had around a .250 batting average, so even if he takes a step forwards, he'll still only be around .265. Think of it this way. There's tons of Ketel Marte skeptics. Tatis performing better than he did last year would be actually less realistic than Ketel Marte performing better (Marte has improved his OPS gradually each of the past 4 half-years, his defense is better now, etc. etc.) Tatis is much more likely to regress, and 6 WAR is still likely to get him MVP votes, a very impressive sophomore campaign feels like a reasonable ceiling.
Machado- Already debunked Machado. If you still don't like it, take a look at his numbers in his brief Dodger stint. If you still don't believe me, take a look here- https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-playemanny-machado-592518?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb as you can see, Machado's expected weighted on base percentage is basically league average. Some of his metrics are encouraging, but best case feels like borderline all star. I can understand arguments on most players, but there's basically no case to make for Machado so please don't.
Pham- I could understand expecting Pham's most likely a bit higher, but I'm not too low from even the optimists. Even with the Rays and Cardinals, he was a borderline all star at his best, which is what 4 WAR is. You can make a case for a 3 WAR most likely, but that would be ignoring the Hosmer effect so...
You're Being Pessimistic- Actually, no I'm not. If you really think so, prove it with numbers and evidence. I used very realistic measures here to estimate WAR, and I don't feel like I didn't give a single guy his fair production estimate. THAT'S EXACTLY MY POINT. Even just being realistic, this IS NOT A CONTENDING TEAM.

If you have any real pointers to make, I would love to hear them. Even professionals are high on the Padres so... is there something super obvious I'm missing? I just can't figure it out. If you agree, let me know, if not, let me know why.

EDIT- Firstly, thanks to the SINGULAR CONSTRUCTIVE COMMENT that I've had so far. My estimates on the non- Paddack starters were way low, and I somehow left out Emilio Pagan. So add 6 wins to the most likely scenario and 8 to the best case, with 4 to the worst case. That puts them at around 80 wins, still sub .500 and nowhere near a playoff spot. Give them a 10% shot with this adjustment.
And you guys... I did not make this post to insult your beloved Padres. I did not spend 3 hours writing a post so I could be yelled at by angry Padres fans for the rest of my life. I wrote this because they still have most of their top prospects in the minors and they don't seem ready to compete to me. So for those of you who want to criticize me, please be specific and provide evidence. Of the 2 dozen or so comments that disagree with me, only one actually does that. The rest of you are taking this as an attack on your team or players, which it isn't. This is a PHILOSOPHICAL QUESTION from a knowledgeable, nerdy baseball fan. I expect intelligent responses, not "you're stupid".
Also, I added the "you're being pessimistic" to debunking arguments preemptively because that's far and away the biggest argument I've had. Also, those of you who have specifically said those words didn't back them up with evidence.

Breaking news $DKNG holders: sources say MLB moving to play 7 inning doubleheaders

Mets' top pitching prospects - #9, Franklyn Kilomé

MLB Blitz Breakdown - Tuesday, September 1st, 2020 - Big ARTICLE of STACKS & PITCHERS!

MLB Stacks & Plays from CheatSheetPros! << Up arrow if you like the content we post! >>
QUICK NEWS AND NOTES:
Baseball blitz for me over the next two weeks that started last night. I ran only Shane Bieber and Lucas Giolito with a full fade on Cole and had a 50% return on my buy ins. My DFS stacks were so-so but my pitching anchored it down for me. Also hit another Shane Bieber over on his strikeouts and the over in the Philly game!
PITCHERS I AM LOOKING AT:
AARON NOLA – Nola is expensive tonight but I can mix him into some of my cheaper stacks. He has 3 of his last 4 starts crushing value and 1 dud. He is coming off a 27.55 DK point start @ WSH going 7.0 with 2 ER and 8 Ks. He is going to face them again tonight so expect a 2x floor and 3x upside. His other two stellar starts were 33 and 38 DK points and I won’t to point out they were both at HOME where he is tonight.
ZACH PLEASAC – After Nola I’m going to drop down to this pricing tier as the other guys don’t have the upside, tough matchups and more risk without the ceiling. Pleasac faces a tough KC team that is stubborn and even beat Shane Bieber last night in a tight game. Zach has at least 15 DK points in every start this year (4 of them) and his last 3 were 28, 19 and 38 DK points. What is the most impressive thing for me is that most recent start of 27.90 DK points was @ CHW and they are red hot right now. He went 6.0 innings with 0 ER and 7 Ks! He also faced them and put up 38.2 DK points going 8.0 innings with 0 ER and 11 Ks on 7/29. Wow! He has a floor of 2x value and a ceiling pushing 5x value! People will go to Patrick Corbin at 10,200 but can he give you a 5x ceiling? That would be 50+ DKPs, the answer is NO and it’s not even close. Corbin has put up 10, 20, 0, 19 and 21 in his last 5 starts so his CEILING is just over 2x, no thanks!
FRAMBER VALDEZ – My favorite pitcher on the slate tonight! Framber has made me some money this year on betting his over strikeouts. I posted that I loved his over 4.5 number at plus money for his last start and people gave me static and said it wouldn’t happen. He dropped 11Ks and put that money in my pocket EARLY in the game! Framber is going to have a price increase going forward and I’m shocked his only 8100 tonight on DK in this matchup. He has 5 starts this year and ALL of them have 20+ DK points. They look like this: 29, 24, 21, 27 and 27! That is sitting around a 3x value floor and pushing 4x upside. His strikeout upside gives him a strong floor. In his first 4 starts he gave up 1 ER or less and then inhis last start vs. LAA he gave up 4 ER but still managed to push 30 DK points with 11 strikeouts!
IAN ANDERSON – Only 6600 are you kidding me?!?! He was 8100 in his last start and that was facing the NYY. I don’t understand the DK pricing but whatever let’s play some Anderson! In his major league debut vs. NYY he had a no hitter going into he 6th inning and ended up putting up 25.1 DK points going 6.0 – 1 ER – 6 Ks. I mean if he gives you 12-13 DK points that is 2x value and a decent put, that equivalent is Corbin giving you 20-22 points. If he pushes 18-25 points you are looking at 3x-4x value. Solid punt!
FADES FOR ME:
MASAHIRO TANAKA – Everyone will see the price tag and stick him in lines so his ownership will be decent tonight. His last 3 starts are 17, -2 and 7 DK points. He just faced TB and gave up 5 ER in only 4.0 innings and only managed 2 strikeouts. He doesn’t have a start this year over 21 DK points so he is a fade for me in a tougher matchup!
JULIO URIAS – 9700 are you crazy DK? He has 5 starts this year and 3 of them are below 9 DK points. He isn’t going to be in the game long enough to hit value. I don’t like him for GPP or cash games.
STACKS TO CONSIDER:
CLEVELAND INDIANS VS. MATT HARVEY – Harvey has given up 4 and 3 ER in his last two starts and those only lasted 2.2 and 3.0 innings. KC has the 21st ranked bullpen after he is out and I’m sure the exhausted all their solid relievers last night trying to hold down the win. In 5.2 innings this season Harvey has given up 7 ER, 9 hits, and 4 walks. CLE is also priced relatively low at 4080 for the top 5 man stack on our cheatsheet. Jose Ramirez (5400) and Lindor (5300) are expensive but after that every play is 4200 or less in the projected starting lineup so you can wrap it up or down. Personally I like the 2-6 projected hitters of Jose Ramirez, Lindor, Santana, Reyes and Naquin.
HOUSTON ASTROS VS. LUIS GARCIA – Garcia has only made a couple appearances this year and out of the pen so his stats are minimal. His DK price is only 4000 so they can’t expect much from him. TEX has the 22nd ranked bullpen behind him so Houston should score some runs. They are 3rd in runs per game over the last 14 days and 6th in OBP+ISO, wRC+ and team batting average. Priced really fair at 4000 per player on average for the best 5 man stack. If you skip over a cold Jose Altuve (5000) you can really get a low cost stack.
TAMPA BAY VS. MASAHIRO TANAKA – As you can see above from my fade on Tanaka he was just tagged for 5 ER in 4.0 innings and only 2 Ks when he faced the Rays on 8/18. They have 142 team plate appearances against him so they are used to seeing his pitches and they are scoring around 5.1 runs per game over the last 14 days. Vegas has this projected at only 4.1 runs so this should be LOW OWNED! We have them going for 5.8 runs on the MLB Cheat Sheet. The stack is also DIRT CHEAP coming in at 3920 per person for the top 5 man graded stack! Rays fall into our “Red Hot” category.
ATLANTA BRAVES VS. RYAN WEBER – We have to spend some money somewhere so I’m giving you a stack on the mid-upper side that comes in at 4660 per person for the top 5 man stack. Braves are 3rd in wRC+ over the last 14 days and 4th in team batting average at .290 over that span. Weber is coming off giving up 3 ER in only 2.2 innings u/TOR.
CHICAGO WHITE SOX VS. MICHAEL PINEDA – Pineda is making his season debut from a PED suspension so I’m betting on some rust to get knocked off before he gets back into his groove. White Sox are 1st in L10 game power rankings, 2nd in runs per game, team batting average, OBP+ISO and wRC+ over the last 14 days. They are on the high side of 5040 for the top 5 man stack but you can get it down to the mid-upper 4000 range with a few pivots. I like some mid-lower priced pitching today so this is an easy stack to fit. Luis Roberts (4700) is putting up 17 DK PPG over the last week and 13.5 over the last two weeks. I would fade Tim Anderson or Jose Abreu here to lower the cost. Abreu is 1 for 13 off Pineda but has been red hot lately.
SAN FRANCISCO VS. JON GRAY – Looking at the Coors game tonight the Rockies rank 29th in the last 10 game power rankings and everyone has a pretty low ceiling. Giants rank 4th in the last 10 game power rankings and top 7 over the last 14 days in wRC+ and runs per game. Priced at 4560 per player for the top 5 man stack includes Mike Yastrzemski (5800) who has cooled off putting up only 4.6 PPG over the last week and is 2 for 11 off Gray. If you fade him you can lower the cost and make it very affordable. Brandon Belt (4700) is 4 for 8 off Gray with NO STRIKEOUTS, Evan Longoria is another player smashing recently!
Thanks for reading,
Haze

Tales from the Tabasco Circuit #Pre-Season Introduction

Good afternoon Deaball Fans,
I, like much of you, found myself this summer bored without being able to check my sports websites for scores and updates so I turned to various other outlets of trying to simulate that experience. After some searching, I stumbled upon Deadball and it has been a a wonderful time. What really sold me on the game was the fact that you filled out a scorecard while doing it and that it was very easy to play in a solitaire-like fashion. My mind started percolating all the neat things one could do with this format and I bring to you my (hopeful) magnum opus: A recreation of the Evangeline League!

What is the Evangeline League? - The Evangeline League was a class C/D(1934-1957) Minor League based entirely out of Louisiana, mostly in the southern half of the state. Because of the close proximity of most of the teams, the fans were rowdy and during the golden era of the league, they had relatively high attendance for a teams of that talent level. It was a wild league with betting scandals and brawls in the stands and was colloquial called the "Pepper Sauce League" or the "Tabasco Circuit" for both its location and the fiery happenings. I am taking some inspiration from W.M. Akers "Southern Circuit" in the fact that this will not be a minor league as players will play here there entire careers if possible.
Who are the players? - All players are generated with the tools given in W.M. Akers first edition of "Deadball with Dice", and between various websites I managed to generate some names as well as an algorithm to "cajun-up" some of the names.
What is the seasonal structure? - 8 teams will play a 126 game schedule ( 6 3-game series vs the other 7 teams) with a break in the middle for the All Star Classic. This will be the monumental part of it, but I think I'll be able to finish out the schedule in a year+ (I already have a week of series completed). Top 4 clubs make the playoffs with the opening round being best-of-three and the Evangeline League Championship being a normal 7 game series.
Who are the teams? I have cobbled together what I believe are the 8 Signature franchises of the Evangeline League and are using those to recreate a fictionalized version of the 1946 season. In real life the 1946 season was the first after the league disbanded because of WW2 from 1943-1945. Below are little team previews for each of the eight ball clubs that will hopefully give the readers a rooting interest in the happenings of fictional players from a defunct league.
When is the league taking place and when are you updating? - I am doing a fictionalized version of the 1946 season which was the first after the league's postponement due to WW2. The league is as wide open as ever, which father time taking away some of the legendary Evangeline players. I plan on updating every time I finish a 4 series set, and hopefully will be better at Reddit posting to where I can include the standings as well statistical leaders (I am a statistician by trade so of course I'm keeping all these fictional records haha)

Abbeville Athletics - Sleepy's campaign versus Father Time.
Aging ace Roger "Sleepy" Woods( 37, SP, d12 CN+) has seen it all in his long tenure in the Evangeline League: World Wars, betting scandals, 20 win seasons, and has lasted on enough to have his son, Ricky Woods(19, RP, d4) make it on same staff as him. But one thing has eluded the talisman of the Abbevile franchise, an Evangeline League title. This year may be the best chance for the perennially fringe playoff team to make a run for the series. Recent addition of Darnell Harless(32, SP, D8) to bolster the starting staff along with the bullpen arms Caden Thibodeaux(23, RP, d8 CN+) and Martin Melancon (27, RP, d8 GB+) showing flashes of brilliance in spring training look to ease the yeoman-like load that Woods has had to carry all these years. Abbeville fans await the season with both excitement for the playoffs and the melancholy that this may be Robert's final season in Athletics park.
Alexandria Aces – The Pride of Northern LA look to bring Alexandria’s rebuild along ahead of schedule Even before the league took a break due to WW2, Alexandria was in the midst of a rebuild. The core players that had dominated the late 1930’s were looking a step too slow and their pitches a little less deceptive. Aces’ Owner “Boudin” Toussiant set out during the war year with a singular mission: find the best high school players North Louisiana had to offer as these players could train and not worry about being drafted into the war. Thankfully the fields of Northern LA were fertile and turned up a number of great prospects, most notably: Joel Guidry (22, 1B, 35/43, Monroe), Jack Hollinshead (20, CF, 29/38 P++, Bunkie), and Max Thomas (19, 2B, 30/39, Boyce). That combined with some pitching staff comprised of players from the halcyon era of Alexandria baseball (Leon Leblanc and Charlie Cormier) the Aces look to bring an interesting mix of future promise and past greatness to the Evangeline League this season.
Baton Rouge Redsticks - Grand Isle Champions to Capital City contenders?
The Redsticks capped off a blistering tour of the Grand Isle Spring Training League by bringing in heightened expectations for this year's season. Can BR's "Whiz Kids" continue this torrid pace and bring a title to the Capital City? It’s going to fall on their talented trio of Power Hitters who dubbed themselves the "Riverboat Gamblers" Mark McClelland (22, 1B, 31/34 P++), Declan Fisher (38, RF, 31/36 P+) and Johnny Bourgeois (21, LF, 21/27 P++) are ready to bet big on their hitting prowess and send a number of balls into the Mississippi. Their hitting is matched by a staff with 2 young aces, 19 year olds Ashton Romero (SP, d12 ST+) and Duluth Lusk (SP, d8 K+) who will not only be competing for most wins on the BR staff, but who's cheering section of co-eds is the loudest. Only one question remains: can all this promising young talent actually translate into wins or are they just paper tigers?
Hammond Berries - Will the record-breakers finally stop breaking their own hearts?
Hammond has stockpiled talent and assembled the deepest collection of hitters in the league. The team looks to return to what the Berries were known for, bruising offense and slick infield play. Giovanni Mendoza (19, SS, 21/26 S+D+) and Graham Marchand III (24, 2B, 34/44 D+) are the best double play pair in the league and Victor Venters (22, SP, d12) is a star in the making. However, one has to address the other part of Hammond's history, post-season failure. Having not advanced to an Evangeline League Final since the 1936 season, with fate always taking it in the cruelest of fashion. Whether it be Donald Levert's (Lafayatte SP) homerun to win game 3 of an opening series 1-0 in 1936 or having your end of season hot streak snapped by mother nature herself (Hurricane of 1940 delaying the post season) Berry fan have come to expect the worst. This year's gotta be the year though, right?
Houma Indians – Will a 4-year break finally allow Houma to just play baseball again?
At some point we have to address the elephant in the room. In 1941(in real life this happened in 1946), the Houma Indians were accused and convicted of throwing the opening round series against the New Iberia Pelicans. This scandal cast a shadow not only over the Houma franchise but also for the league itself. The 1942 season was bleak for Houma, some of their best players were banned from the league due to their involvement with local bookies and the fans never cared to show up. However, during the break massive changes were made to the franchise, first the team was sold to local businessman and beer magnate Donny “Smoke” Dupuis. Along with his new manager Ronnie Prejean, Dupuis orchestrated an entire roster turnover of the Indians bringing in players from the Texas League as well as local industrial leagues. These roster moves along with the league’s postponement has allowed bayou area fans’ hearts to heal, absence does make the heart grow fonder after all. While Houma may not compete for a playoff this year, they are most certainly going to compete with integrity.
Lafayette Bulls - Can a Repeat double as a swan song?
Only in the Evangeline League can a repeat be 4 years in the making. The 1942 Lafayette Bulls won the Evangeline League in surprising fashion of the Thibodaux Giants. They were poised to make another run in the 1943 season until the whole league itself was postponed. When the telegram game through from the league office in Baton Rouge, the Bulls core made a pledge to put on the cleats one more time for a title defense whenever they got the chance. Major contributors from that 1942 team that still remain are staff ace Donald Levert(40, SP, d8), lead-off man Andrew Rees (39, CF, 25/32 S+D+), power-hitter Dustin Thibodeaux(39, SS, 28/31 P+). Owen Frye (30, C, 23/30) and Deangelo Ewing(29,SP,d8) were considered to be the future of the 1942 team, but their patriotic duty robbed them of competing throughout their entire prime. Lafayette coach Jacob Comeau has proclaimed that the title still runs through Girard Park, and that they shouldn’t sleep on newcomer Harry Le (20, RP, d12 K+) as he may be the actual reason the Bulls may be able to contend for a title after a 4 year layoff.
New Iberia Pelicans – All they have to do is get to the 8th with a lead, but who’s gonna score the runs?
The Pelicans are trying to change the baseball equation: What if you only had to win a 7-inning baseball game instead of the normal 9. New Iberia fields two possible all-star relievers in Seth Trahan(25, RP(L), d12) and Eric Austin (23, RP(R), d12) who can freely switch between setup and closers depending on the lineup. The Pels suffer from a lack of dominant hitting and are kept afloat by aging slugger Hubert Landry (35, RF, 33/37 P+). Klark Darwish (24, SS, 29/35) and Duane Dickerson (25, 1B, 28/36) round out the other bright spots in the lineup. Some think New Iberia’s gambit of a stellar bullpen is out of necessity, I’m pretty sure the New Iberia’s head coach thinks he’s found out a way to compete with the top of the division.
Thibodaux Giants – Thunderous Giants look to stay on top for the whole season.
The Giants are fielding what is to be considered one of the best position-by-position lineups in all of the Evangeline League. Mark Fryou (22, 2B, 33/44), Salvatore Sawyer (24, CF, 30/37 C+), Otto Trahan (26, 1B, 34/45) and Morris Breaux (40, C, 32/42 P+) form a stellar top of the batting order that is sure to put opposing pitching staffs on the back foot early, where they should be able to cover up for Thibodaux’s lack of a true ace. The Giants were looking to challenge Lafayette in 1942 but their inexperience caught up to them. Hopefully the 4 year gap has hopefully seasoned this team enough to become a smart title pick for 1946. While questions remain about their slim bench and rotation, there’s no doubt you will see several Thibodaux names leading the Triple Crown Stat,s. Let’s just hope it translates to post season wins too.
Thanks to this subreddit for allowing me to share my love of simulations and building narratives about of numbers!

[One Night In Sedona] [Derby] - Chapter 7

[Cover]
While attending a photography convention, Seddy witnesses a murder. She just wants to put it all behind her, but first someone breaks into her hotel room and then someone tries to kill her. Her new love interest and the local detective both seem very eager to help her and the chief of police keeps giving her strange looks. With no idea whom to trust, she realizes she may hold the one piece of evidence that could help solve the mystery.
[Chapter 1]
It took me a moment to process what Paul was saying. The timer signaled that I should turn off the water on the tap in the darkroom, but I couldn’t move. All I could do was stare at the picture of the woman he called Caitlin.
My mother. That’s why she had looked so familiar. It was my mother twenty-five years ago. I could see that now. She was only nineteen when she had me, naming me after the place where I had been conceived. Growing up, she never spoke much of my father, but Paul’s story fell right in line with the little I did know.
I opened and closed my mouth a few times. When it was clear I had no idea what to say, Paul gestured back to my SLR.
“When I saw that camera last night, I knew it was mine. I remember the day I had scratched my initials into the bottom. As soon as I left the restaurant, I called your mother. She was surprisingly easy to find.”
“With or without your police databases?”
Paul smiled. “Without. Social media is great for stalking people. Anyway, I told her I had run into you but you didn’t know who I was. We talked for a long time.”
“She never got married.” I glanced around. This was obviously the home of a bachelor. “Neither did you.”
He shook his head. “No, I didn’t. Like I said, I was in love with Caitlin. We talked for a long time. I promised her I would look out for you while you were here.”
“Is that why you offered to help me with the darkroom?”
He smiled. “I was always going to help you. I was trying to get my buddy at the high school to let us use the darkroom there. After the incident today, I decided my place would be safer.”
“So, now what?”
He got to his feet. “Now we go look at some negatives.”
I sighed as I followed him back to the darkroom. I had no idea how to even begin to digest what he had just told me. I decided to put all of my effort into processing the film. I would deal with Paul being my father — that was so weird to even think about — later.
I turned off the water in the sink and emptied the tank. Leaving it in the basin, I removed the top and pulled out the reel. I pulled away a small amount, just enough to clip it to the clothesline, then slowly rolled the rest off. When it was free, I found the cracked canister and clipped it to the bottom to help weigh it down.
Paul stood beside me with a penlight. “I know they’re not dry, but I’m dying to see.”
I nodded. “Me too.”
He held a sheet of paper behind the strip and shone his light at the image. I followed his light. I found the pictures of the mountains near the middle. Then people talking. I pointed to one of the frames.
“I think that’s it.”
“I think you’re right.” He switched off the light. “We have a couple of hours before this dries. How about some pizza and baseball? The Mets are playing the Diamondbacks.”
I raised my eyebrows. “You’re the reason my mom loves the Mets, aren’t you?”

While we waited for the pizza, I went into a guest room to call my mother. She more or less confirmed Paul’s story. He hadn’t told her about the incident at the steakhouse and I wasn't about to tell her about being pushed off the overlook, so I just let her think Paul and I had run into each other at a restaurant. It was close enough to the truth and I would give her all the details when I was home and she could see for herself that I was alright.
My mother kept asking me how I was handling the fact that I had found my father. I told her the truth — I was still in shock and had no idea what I was feeling. She seemed amused when I told her Paul and I were going to watch the game together and she said she would join us in spirit.
At the top and bottom of each inning, Paul would pop into the darkroom to check on the film. During the seventh inning stretch, it was finally dry. We switched off the television and got to work.
I cut the negatives into strips and loaded them into a sleeve Paul provided. Using the light box, we were able to confirm I indeed had a picture of the two men by the kitchen. There was only one image. The one before it was the older couple at the table beside me. The one after it was a chipmunk.
I placed the film in the carrier and moved it to the enlarger. Paul switched on the red light, darkening the room, then looked over my shoulder as we focused the image.
Two men stood by the kitchen. Paul pointed to the one on the right.
“That’s the victim.”
“Unfortunately, I didn’t get much of the other guy. I don’t know if this will help you at all.”
Paul squinted at the photo. “Hang on. What’s that?”
I looked where he was pointing. There was something on the man’s wrist. I enlarged the photo, re-centering and focusing it. When the image was clear, I gasped.
“Get the photo paper. I’d know that tattoo anywhere.”

“You should have contacted me sooner,” Dylan said as he sat across from me in the hotel lounge.
“I know. I just didn’t think it was a big deal.”
“Tell me everything.”
“We were hiking to the overlook to take pictures. I was standing on an embankment when this guy just took my camera and bowled me over. He destroyed my camera. I want to file a police report so I can put in a claim with my insurance company.”
Dylan nodded. “I’m reaching a dead end with the investigation. There’s just no evidence. I’m guessing someone thinks you have some sort of incriminating photograph. That’s why he was in your room and that’s why he took your camera. I don’t suppose you got a glimpse of the guy?”
I shook my head. “Not really. But, we did find a disposable camera. It might have fingerprints.”
“How about the other people on the hike with you? Did they see anyone?”
“Someone got it on camera, but it was just me falling. You couldn’t see the guy who pushed me.”
Dylan frowned. “That guy you had dinner with the other night. Was he with you?”
I nodded. “Logan? He was on the hike. I kind of lost him at that moment.”
Dylan took a deep breath and looked up from his phone. “I have to ask this. I was reading through your statements from the other day. Logan disappeared right before the shooting. Now you’re telling me he disappeared right before someone attacked you. He knows your room number and could have tossed the place. Is it possible he’s just pretending to be your friend to find out whether or not you can identify him?”
I took a shaky breath. “The thought crossed my mind. That’s why I really wanted to get those prints developed.”
Dylan shook his head. “I’m thinking you should just give me the roll. I bet the guys at the lab can process it. We’ll reimburse you and you can get the negatives back when we’re done with it.”
I smiled. “You don’t need to. I talked to my mother this afternoon. Do you know how I got my name? She and my father fell in love one night in Sedona. Apparently, he never left.”
I picked up my camera. “I told you this was his, right? He still has a darkroom. He helped me develop the film.”
I put the camera beside me and pulled out a folder, removing a photo.
“Turns out, I had a shot of the guys by the kitchen after all. See, there’s your dead guy.”
Dylan pointed to the other person in the picture.
“You can’t really see much of this guy, though.”
I pointed to the wrist. “Yeah, but I think that’s a tattoo. If you can identify that, you can find your killer.”
Dylan frowned. “Too bad you can't really see it.”
I smiled as I pulled out a second photograph. “Here. I blew it up for you.”
The resolution was perfect. I could easily discern the image. I pointed to the two characters. “I’m pretty sure that’s Japanese.”
Dylan glared at me as he clenched his fist, crumpling the photographs. When his spoke, his voice was low and harsh. “Where are the negatives?”
“My father took them. There’s just one thing I don’t understand.” I gestured to the photographs. “Why kill that guy?”
Dylan sighed. “We were in a poker game together. I lost a lot of money. I found out he was cheating and I tried to get the money back. He insisted he was innocent. Threatened to tell my boss I had a gambling problem.”
“But why’d you shoot him? You had to know it would be traced back to you.”
“He shot me. Missed. I took the gun, fired in self defense. Cleaned it and put it back at his place when we finished checking out his house. There was nothing linking me to him.”
“Except my photo. Is that why you tossed my room?”
“I was looking for your camera, your film, your SD card. Wherever that picture would be.”
“But, why’d you push me at the overlook?”
He shrugged. “I was trying to get the camera away from you. It wasn’t until after I took it that I realized it was the wrong one. Now, you’re going to have to take me to your father to get those negatives.”
“Oh, that won’t be necessary.”
Dylan looked up as Paul approached the table. “Chief. Seddy was just telling me she found a place to develop her pictures. We’re going to see if she has any helpful photographs.”
“Oh, she does. The negatives are already in my custody and will be used at your hearing. Dylan Wesler, you’re under arrest for the murder of Armando Bartz, tampering with evidence, breaking and entering at the Red Rock Resort, assault, destruction of property, and whatever else I can think of on the way to booking.”
Dylan looked at me. “I thought you said you gave the negatives to your father.”
Paul smiled. “Actually, Dylan, I have you to thank for introducing me to the daughter I never knew I had. Now, please don’t make a scene.”
Dylan got to his feet. “You can’t hold me. It's my word against hers.”
I held up my phone. “Paul, I’ve already emailed the conversation to you. I copied the crime lab like you told me to.”
Dylan shook his head. “None of this was supposed to happen. I just wanted my money back.”
Paul restrained Dylan's hands and took his gun before winking at me and leading Dylan out of the lounge. A moment later, Logan slid beside me, throwing an arm over my shoulder.
“How exactly do you make a mochatini anyway?”

Monday morning, I woke up disoriented again. I was in my hotel room, but something wasn’t quite right. There was someone in the bathroom.
I rolled over, planning on calling the front desk and letting them hear me scream that there was an intruder. Before I could lift the receiver, the person came into the room.
“I didn’t mean to wake you. Go back to sleep.”
I narrowed my eyes at Logan. “Why are you here?”
He shook his head. “I knew you had too much last night.”
I quickly checked under the covers. I was still fully dressed. Logan laughed.
“Don’t worry. Nothing happened. We got drunk, came up here and I passed out before I could go back to my room.”
Since I had the beginnings of a hangover, and all my clothes on, I tended to believe him. I checked the time. It was barely dawn. I looked back at Logan. “What time’s your flight?”
“Ten. I need to return the rental car, get through security, all that fun stuff.”
“Do you have time for breakfast?”
He crossed over to kiss me. “I can think of something else I’d rather do.”
By the time Logan left, he was running the risk of missing his flight. Once he was gone, I packed my own things and went in search of breakfast. Paul was waiting for me in the lobby.
“I was hoping to catch you before you left.”
I shrugged. Now that the investigation was over, I had no idea what I was supposed to say to the man. “Is everything all set with Dylan?”
Paul nodded. “His arraignment is later this morning. I think he’s going to try for temporary insanity, but he’s not denying the charges. I don’t think you have to worry about him coming after you again.”
I furrowed my brow. “I wasn’t. Not until you just said that.”
Paul shifted his weight uncomfortably. “I, um, called your mother again last night. I’ve got some vacation time saved up. I’m going to go home, visit my brother. I’d like to stop by and see you and your mom while I’m in town.”
I shrugged. “I don't live with her anymore.”
“No, but you live two towns away and have dinner with her and your grandparents every Sunday.”
I smiled. I guess he had been talking to my mother. “I would like that.”
“I would love to see your studio. I never had the guts to take up photography professionally. Oh. That reminds me.”
He handed me a manila envelope. “I took the liberty. Wait until you get on the plane.” I nodded and he took a step backwards. “Keep in touch, okay?”
“Thanks for looking out for me while I was here.”
Paul shook his head. “That wasn’t me. He’s a good catch.”
I could feel my face grow warm. Paul smirked, waved awkwardly, and headed out the main doors. I held my envelope close as I went to get my coffee. I was dying to see what was inside it, but I honored Paul’s request to wait for the flight.
After spending all weekend locked up without being used, my rental car smelled even worse than I remembered. I drove with the windows down the entire hour to the airport, but I was pretty sure the stench had made its way onto my clothes.
It took me a long time to get through the security line and even longer to purchase a sandwich at one of the take out restaurants. I made it to my gate just as my flight was boarding.
I was on one of those flights that did not have assigned seats, so I found a random window where there was plenty of room in the overhead bin to store my bags. Once I was buckled into my seat, I was able to finally open Paul’s envelope.
He had informed me the night before that the negatives would be held as evidence in Dylan’s trial, assuring me that I would get them back eventually, although it may take several months or even years. The envelope contained prints of the images from that strip, except the one I had shown Dylan, of course. As I flipped through them, I realized a number of them contained Logan.
Not the last picture in the pile. That contained a picture of a young woman looking at the Sedona mountains with a laughing smile.
“Is this seat taken?”
I turned to the aisle. “No, g—”
Logan slid into the seat beside me before I could finish my thought. I stared at him mouth agape.
“How — But — You—”
Logan smiled. “During the drive here, I realized you and I were heading to the same place. When I checked in, I discovered my flight was overbooked. They were more than happy to transfer me to this flight.”
“I can’t—That’s fantastic.”
“If I did everything right, I should be on your connecting flight, too.” Logan pointed to the picture in my lap. “Who’s that?”
I smiled as I passed him the stack. “That’s my mother. I can’t to introduce you to her.”
Thank you for reading One Night In Sedona. If you would like to receive a free copy of one of my books, please join my mailing list.
This story will remain online until October 31st.
Follow me at https://carrieswritingcorner.blogspot.com/

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