Over the past six months, Trump has been making increasingly false, absurd, and dangerous claims - from saying the “only way” he’ll lose in November is in a rigged election to claiming his opponents illegally “spied” on his campaign.
However, not only is he making these claims, the president and his cronies are corrupting the power of government to inflate his lies to the level of truth and oppress any evidence to the contrary. With the help of loyalists atop every federal agency, Trump has perverted the government to serve his own re-election desires.
This list is nowhere near comprehensive. There are many more examples that could be given, but I tried to keep it short enough that it is still readable.

ODNI and Intelligence Community

Limit disclosure of knowledge of Russian sabotage.
The Office of the Director of National Intelligence, led by Trump loyalist John Ratcliffe, canceled future in-person briefings on election security issues to the congressional intelligence committees. Instead, the ODNI will provide written briefings only.
The change came after a classified briefing in which top counterintelligence official Bill Evanina told House members that Russia is again trying to boost President Donald Trump’s reelection and denigrate his opponent, Joe Biden. Trump was enraged after details of the briefing leaked to the public, revealing that his own administration’s intelligence officers contradict his repeated assertions that Russia is not interfering on his behalf.
Reminder: Trump fired the previous DNI, Joseph Maguire, after learning that one of Maguire’s staff members gave a 2020 election security briefing to the House Intelligence Committee. In the briefing, Maguire aide Shelby Pierson alerted committee members that Russia was interfering in the 2020 campaign in an effort to tip the election in Trump’s favor. In firing Maguire, Trump sent a warning to the entire intelligence community: Trump’s opinion and electoral prospects must be prioritized over facts.

Department of Homeland Security

Twist intelligence to support campaign and personal motives.
Election interference
Former acting Under Secretary of Homeland Security for Intelligence and Analysis Brian Murphy filed a whistleblower complaint alleging that Acting Homeland Security Secretary Chad Wolf interfered with intelligence assessments in order to benefit Trump politically.
In May 2020, Acting Homeland Security Secretary Chad Wolf told Murphy to “cease providing intelligence assessments on the threat of Russian interference in the United States, and instead start reporting on interference activities by China and Iran.” Wolf told Murphy those instructions came directly from the White House.
In July 2020, DHS chief of staff John Gountanis intervened to stop publication of an intelligence bulletin warning about a Russian disinformation plot to “denigrate” the mental health of Joe Biden. On July 8, Murphy said, he met with Wolf, who told him that the intelligence notification should be “held” because it “made the President look bad.”
Trump not only attempts to hide intelligence that contradicts the false narrative he continues to push about China actively interfering to boost Biden, according to Murphy Trump’s officials directed him to prioritize intelligence on China and Iran.

It’s disturbing enough for a president and his allies to distort intelligence assessments for political gain, but Murphy’s account suggests something more nefarious—that intelligence authorities and positions of public trust might have been used to engineer the narrative from the outset.

Campaign agitprop
Murphy’s complaint also details that Senior Official Performing the Duties of the Deputy Secretary Ken Cuccinelli ordered him to modify intelligence assessments to make the threat of white supremacy “appear less severe” and include information on violent “left-wing” groups and Antifa. The reason given was “to ensure they matched up with the public comments by President Trump on the subject of ANTIFA and ‘anarchist’ groups.”
Trump has spent months fear-mongering about imagined mobs of far-left activists coming to attack the suburbs. On Saturday, the Trump campaign sent out an “ANTIFA ALERT” text message to supporters, saying “they’ll attack your homes if Joe’s elected. Pres Trump needs you to become a Diamond Club Member.”

Customs and Border Patrol

Cause unrest in Democratic-cities to assist in fear campaign.
Border Patrol agents were among the federal forces sent to Portland to confront and arrest protestors over the summer.
Gil Kerlikowske, former commissioner of U.S. Customs and Border Protection under President Barack Obama, said BORTAC, the unit dispatched to the city, is chiefly trained to pursue fugitives and criminals. "They're clearly the wrong group to be doing this.”
The violence they provoked was featured in Trump’s campaign ads and RNC nomination acceptance speech.
“Trump has ratcheted up political ties to border patrol to another level,” Todd Miller, the author of Empire of Borders, said. “He based his whole 2016 campaign around this, and it is now at the core of his 2020 re-election bid. These are his people.”
Most recently, the Border Patrol produced and published a dramatized video showing a Spanish-speaking attacker stabbing and killing a man in a dark alley after escaping from U.S. agents - “a clip apparently created to dramatize President Trump’s depiction of migrants as fearsome criminals.”

Justice Department

Weaponize the law to harm opponents and save himself.
Investigate Trump’s rivals
Trump and Attorney General Bill Barr are reportedly pressuring U.S. Attorney John Durham and his team to release the results of their probe before the November election. Durham was appointed by Barr to investigate the origins of the Mueller investigation and the FBI’s Russia probe. Last week, a highly respected and experienced prosecutor, Nora R. Dannehy, resigned as a senior aide to Durham due to concern over this improper political pressure.
Trump has publicly expressed impatience with the Durham investigation, saying there should be more prosecutions and disclosures of information that would damage his political rivals. Last month, Barr indicated the DOJ would not respect an informal policy against taking investigative steps 60 days before Election Day.
In a speech on Wednesday, Barr essentially rebuked the Mueller investigation and the cases it spawned: “Smart, ambitious lawyers have sought to amass glory by prosecuting prominent public figures since the Roman Republic. It is utterly unsurprising that prosecutors continue to do so today to the extent the Justice Department’s leaders will permit it. As long as I am Attorney General, we will not.”
Assist Trump’s allies
Attorney General Barr has explicitly interfered in at least two criminal cases against Trump’s allies, helping the president promote the narrative that the Obama administration (in which Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden served) acted inappropriately. In February, Barr overruled career federal prosecutors in order to recommend the former Trump campaign advisor Roger Stone receive a lesser prison sentence. The entire team of prosecutors resigned from the criminal case due to the Justice Department’s interference. Trump ultimately commuted Stone’s 40-month sentence, much less than the original recommendation of seven to nine years in prison.
Then, in May, the Justice Department filed a request to drop the criminal case against Trump's first national security adviser, Michael Flynn, despite the fact that Flynn twice - before two separate judges - admitted to lying to the FBI. In response, nearly 2,000 former DOJ employees called for Barr’s resignation, saying he had “assaulted the rule of law.”
Politically-motivated actions
Barr reportedly told prosecutors to explore aggressive charges against people arrested at recent demonstrations across the US, even suggesting bringing a rarely used sedition charge, reserved for those who have plotted a threat that posed imminent danger to government authority.
The AG asked prosecutors in the Justice Department’s civil rights division to explore whether they could bring criminal charges against Mayor Jenny Durkan of Seattle for not acting immediately to disrupt the police-free zone created by protestors over the summer. According to the Associated Press, charges were also explored against city officials in Portland, Oregon, for the continued protests in the area.
The Justice Department is targeting Democratic governors for coronavirus outbreaks in state-owned nursing homes. The four governors - PA’s Tom Wolf, MI’s Whitmer, NJ’s Murphy, and NY’s Cuomo - are frequent targets of Trump for not lifting pandemic restrictions as fast as he’d like. Republican-run states have very similar rules about nursing home admissions yet are not under DOJ investigation.
Just yesterday, Barr publicly bashed states that still have restrictions in place, saying that “stay at home orders” are “like house arrest.” Incredibly, Barr added: “Other than slavery, which was a different kind of restraint, this is the greatest intrusion on civil liberties in American history."

• More: In April, Barr issued a memorandum directing the nation’s U.S. attorneys to be on the lookout for public health rules that might, among other things, constitute “undue interference with the national economy.”

CDC and FDA

Rush coronavirus treatments to save his election chances.
At the end of March, the FDA issued an Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) to allow hydroxychloroquine and chloroquine for coronavirus COVID-19 treatment after weeks of pressure from Trump. For instance, eight days before the EUA, Trump tweeted that hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin could be "one of the biggest game changers in the history of medicine" and should "be put in use immediately."
Ultimately, the FDA revoked its EUA in June after more evidence revealed hydroxychloroquine can cause “serious cardiac adverse events.”
Experts say the FDA again caved to political pressure when it approved an expanded use of convalescent plasma to treat covid patients, the night before the Republican National Convention. Despite concerns over plasma’s effectiveness, Trump called Dr. Francis S. Collins, the director of the N.I.H., to tell him: “Get it done by Friday.” When it wasn’t, Trump took to Twitter to accuse those at the FDA of being part of the “deep state” withholding an approval “to delay the answer until after November 3.” The next day, the FDA announced its approval.
Finally, and most obviously, Trump has pressured the FDA to approve of a coronavirus vaccine before the November election. Experts across the board have said there is no way our government and existing infrastructure will be ready to distribute, administer, and track doses by November.

Trump, Sept. 2: "[It's] going to be done in a very short period of time -- could even have it during the month of October… We’re going to have a vaccine very soon, maybe even before a very special date. You know what date I’m talking about” (clip 1 and clip 2.

Just yesterday, Trump contradicted CDC chief Robert Redfield’s timetable for the vaccine, saying the doctor was “confused” in his congressional testimony.

"If you're asking me when is it going to be generally available to the American public, so we can begin to take advantage of vaccine to get back to our regular life, I think we're probably looking at third, late second quarter, third quarter 2021," Redfield told a Senate appropriations subcommittee.

"I think he made a mistake when he said that. It's just incorrect information," Trump said about Redfield's vaccine timeline. Following Trump’s repudiation, a CDC spokesman walked back Redfield’s statements to be in line with the president’s. "He was not referring to the time period when Covid-19 vaccine doses would be made available to all Americans," the spokesman said.

Department of Health and Human Services

Convince the public that the pandemic is gone.
DHS is bidding out a more than $250 million contract to a communications firm as it seeks to “defeat despair and inspire hope” about the coronavirus pandemic. Among the goals of the contract: “sharing best practices for businesses to operate in the new normal and instill confidence to return to work and restart the economy.” In other words: exactly what Trump has tried to project onto the nation despite his failure to effectively contain the spread of the coronavirus.
As the House Oversight Committee has expressed, “rather than focus on planning and executing a national strategy to contain the coronavirus, the Trump Administration is using a quarter of a billion dollars in taxpayer money to fund what appears to be a political propaganda campaign just two months before a presidential election.”
Remember, the pandemic crisis still gripping America is Trump’s own creation. Olivia Troye, Pence’s top aide on the White House coronavirus task force, went public yesterday with her firsthand experiences. She relays that throughout the pandemic, Trump was consumed by himself and his prospects in November. “For him, it was all about the election,” Troye said.
Instead of trying to help Americans and slow the spread, Trump is spending 250 million taxpayer dollars to try to convince us not to believe our own eyes and ears.

US Postal Service

Discredit vote-by-mail and suppress the vote.
President Trump on Thursday continued his months long campaign against mail-in voting this November by tweeting that “MAYHEM” will occur in states that send ballots to all registered voters. In another tweet, Trump falsely asserted that “the Nov 3rd Election result may NEVER BE ACCURATELY DETERMINED” due to nine states running universal mail-in voting.
By casting doubt on mail ballots and the election results, Trump is trying to accomplish two things: (1) persuade voters not to participate in the election, and (2) claim victory prematurely, or even after a decisive loss.
To this end, Postmaster DeJoy - a big donor to Trump’s campaign - has sent confusing misinformation to voters in these states that automatically send registered voters ballots by mail.
DeJoy has also implemented changes at USPS that significantly slowed the delivery of mail, making it harder for people to vote by mail with confidence and, likely, scaring some people away from voting at all in the middle of the pandemic. Trump is betting on these changes having a bigger impact on Democrats than Republicans, especially considering the fact that he has spent nearly the entire year downplaying the threat of the coronavirus to his base.

• Note: Barr is also cranking out false public statements to discredit vote-by-mail, whether it’s falsely claiming it’s vulnerable to a massive foreign-engineered conspiracy or blatantly misrepresenting actual domestic cases of fraud.

National Park Service

Assist in taxpayer funded staging of campaign events.
Yes, even the National Park Service has been corrupted by Trump, via former oil industry lobbyist and Secretary of the Interior David Bernhardt. Most recently, the NPS produced what appears to be a campaign ad, with no other purpose than promoting Trump. In fact, the words “PRESIDENT TRUMP” in all caps are the first words to appear on screen. The video likely breaks the law:

The federal Anti-Deficiency Act prohibits the use of federal funds for purposes other than those Congress has authorized… if Congress has not authorized the Interior Department to use our money to create campaign ads (and it hasn’t), then the Interior Department cannot legally create campaign ads. In addition to this general prohibition against using funds for unauthorized purposes, there is an express prohibition against propaganda.

Additionally the NPS allowed Trump to take over Mount Rushmore National Memorial for an air and fireworks show ostensibly to celebrate Independence day. In reality, Trump used the event to rail against Democrats, promote his statute-protecting executive order, and warn of a "left-wing cultural revolution." Put differently, it was a campaign event in the middle of a national park.
In June, U.S. Park Police (officers of the NPS) took part in forcibly removing peaceful protestors with tear gas and rubber bullets from the area in and around Lafayette Park, a national historic landmark and public place, for the president's photo-op with a bible. And in 2019, the Park Service used $2.5 million in fees paid by national park visitors to fund President Trump's "Salute to America" celebration in the National Mall.

Hi all,
Meagan here – I’m the Sr. Community & Social Media Manager at Crystal.
Threads move fast on Reddit and often there are multiple reports on the same issue. We realized that not everyone may see when we respond to individual threads and are hoping to resolve that with this sticky post!
We are scouring social media, Discord, and Reddit for your bug reports and feedback, but think a little context on what’s happening behind the scenes could help.
But first, I want to say that we hate bugs as much as you do. Although a lot of the issues below happen infrequently within the scope of the entire player base, your experience is our top priority, and each of you deserve the best possible experience we can deliver.
HOW WE GATHER BUG REPORTS
If you aren’t familiar with bug reporting or Quality Assurance protocol, to solve complex bugs, we have to reproduce them first. This means recreating the exact circumstances that triggered the bug, which allows us to put protections in place and keep it from happening again. This process requires that we gather data from players, and then use that data to solve the puzzle.
We are gathering information on bugs/crashes many ways:

• From automatic platform reports: If you encounter a crash and your console prompts you to report a problem, please do! This information gets sent to us and is SUPER helpful, as it tells us what you were doing at the time of the crash. It’s easier for us to then pick out trends and address them!
  
• Customer Support: Customer support reports are our second-best bet for gauging volume of issues and getting more information to help reproduce and resolve them. You can get in touch with our support team here: support.square-enix-games.com
  
• Social Media: Social media gives us a great viewpoint into high-level bugs/issues individuals are facing, but it isn’t idea for one-on-one communication and information gathering. This is why we direct people on social to customer support, unless it is a known issue & we can quickly message a workaround. That being said, we have our community team and members of the dev team scouring social, reddit, discord, and more every day to gather and consolidate reports
  
• Internal Testing: With the absence of our usual playtest lab due to the work-from-home environment, employee testing was incredibly important these past few months, and it was super cool to see everyone use their free time to rally behind bug-busting marathons. We’re still constantly playing our game and using it as an opportunity to surface bugs, tune, and optimize.
  

With this in mind, if you have a bug to report, there are some tips to help us get a clear picture of what bug/issue you are reporting. The more specific you can be, the better!

• Platform & Region of Play
• Headline/Summary of issue (Crashed. Froze. Cap has googly eyes)
• Hero
• Mission
• What Happened (tell us what you were doing just before and when the issue happened)
• Screenshot or Video (if possible)
• If Multiplayer related, please also include power level and number of players in your Strike Team

When we surface a bug or bring in reports from Customer Support or Social Media, we prioritize them by severity and frequency, create our own internal strike teams with representation from all subject matter experts, and get to work to resolve it!
INITIAL TROUBLESHOOTING
If you encounter a bug that is keeping you from enjoying play, the best bet is to reload the last checkpoint. This will often resolve issues. If that doesn't work, fully exiting the app and reloading the game is the suggested next step. If the issue persists, we have implemented a backup save function:
Backup Save: Available in the Settings menu, this feature backs up your save files. Your progress will be saved every hour. If you run into any issues with a corrupted save file, this can potentially help retrieve and revert to a different save file. Please note: This may not work for everyone, and will not address issues with save files that existed prior to this patch.
KNOWN ISSUES AND WORKAROUNDS
Here is the current list of our top priority known issues and when applicable, workarounds. We will update the status field with new information as we have it!
UNABLE TO ACCEPT VILLAIN SECTORS

• Presentation: Missions show up as already completed and do not refresh, which does not allow users to accept new ones in order to play them, causing them to miss out on rewards.
  
• Status [9/18]: Actively investigating.
  

MISSION CHAINS NOT COMPLETING

• Presentation: Some Mission Chains are not completing properly when all requirements are met. (Example: Reigning Supreme)
  
• Status [9/19]: Actively investigating. Try advancing any other Mission Chain by a single step. This will trigger an auto-complete of the incomplete Mission Chains and rewards will be issued.
  

MISSING WEEKLY MISSION CRASH

• NOTICE For the time being we suggest you hold on refreshing Weekly Missions if you see one missing.
  
• Presentation: For those seeing a missing Weekly Mission, refreshing it would result in a crash.
  
• Status [9/19]: We are actively investigating.
  

THE MISSION “INTERROGATION ANXIETY” CANNOT BE COMPLETED

• Presentation: Rarely this presents as an inability to continue in the mission Interrogation Anxiety due to not being able to interact with specific characters.
  
• Status [9/6]: We are actively investigating.
  

VARIOUS PS4 TROPHY BUGS

• Presentation: Reported issues with an array of trophies, including: Former Glory: Complete the “Iconic Avengers" mission chain Old Fashioned Beat Down: Complete HARM Challenges I to V The Best Defense: Defeat any 20 different enemy types Tentative Peace: Complete 15 Villain Sectors Gold Star Success: Complete 100 assignments Holding it Down: Complete 30 War Zones at Challenge III or higher rating
  
• Status [9/18]: Fixed several known issues around PS4 Trophy bugs. We are actively investigating the remaining.
  

UNLOCKED OUTFITS REVERTING TO LOCKED STATE

• Presentation: This presents to some players in two ways:

1) This presented as costumes that were previously unlocked through campaign progress - such as the Stark Tech outfits - reverting to a locked state.
2) This presented as costumes that were previously unlocked through online play - such as Hero Challenge Card rewards, pattern drops, and faction vendors - reverting to a locked state

• Status [9/19]: Most of these have been fixed, but there are some that haven't, including Iron Man's Iconic Outfit.

VARIOUS SKILL POINT BUGS

• Presentation: Some characters are either missing a Skill Point or have an extra one.
  
• Status [9/19]: We are actively working towards a fix.
  

COMMUNITY CHALLENGES NOT UPDATING IN REAL TIME

• Presentation: While progress is not appearing in-game, it is still being tracked on our end.
  
• Status [9/5]: We are working to optimize the system and implement a fix so that players can see their combined progress in real-time!
  
• Potential Workaround: N/A
  

MATCHMAKING ISSUES

V1.3.0 addressed several matchmaking issues. We are still working on improving this more.

RESOLVED ISSUES

CHARACTER DUPLICATION/SWAPS ON GOLDEN GATE BRIDGE

• Presentation: This presents as a rare bug with late-game campaign players, where they are loaded into the Golden Gate Bridge as the wrong character.
  
• Status [9/8]: This should be resolved - if you encounter this bug, please contact customer service so we can continue to investigate.
  

CHALLENGE CARD POINTS NOT UNLOCKING

• Presentation: Hero Challenge Cards were not reflecting points earned through daily or weekly challenges.
  
• Status [9/5]:Resolved: We have fixed an issue where Hero Challenge Cards were not properly reflecting earned points. We are also in the process of retroactively granting lost points, although this process may take several hours to complete. Thank you for your reports!
  

Patch Note Archive

• [9/4] PC: V1.0 Build 12.9, PS4: V1.2.3, Xbox: V1.2.2
• [9/6] PC: V1.0 Build 12.11
• [9/9] PS4 & Xbox: V1.2.5
• [9/18] All Platforms: V1.3.0

We’re still hard at work to fix as many issues as we can. Please keep providing feedback to us!

• Customer Support (Contact is in upper-right corner)
  
• Twitter
  
• Reddit
  
• Discord
  
• Facebook
  
• Instagram
  

Hello my magical friends, the season of the witch is almost upon us! As excited as I always get for October, this year feels a bit different to me. 2020 has been a hell of a year… and it’s not over yet. A global crisis we are all wearily trying to get through is bad enough. In the US, we’ve got wildfires still raging across the west, a national reckoning with the blight that is white supremacy, and an especially contentious presidential election coming right up (in a Mercury retrograde no less!). Oof.
If you follow astrology at all, you are probably already bracing yourself for the month ahead. Sure, the full blue moon on Halloween is great for aesthetics! And yet, the space weather overall isn’t great. I am by no means an authority on the art of astrology, so I rely on the experts at the Astrology Podcast for their awesome forecasts. The short version: October will feature plenty of spicy tricks, but scarce few treats. :(
Things look pretty bleak, but let’s not forget - we are witches! Times like these are exactly why I practice magic. So I wanted to share my survival strategy for October and beyond, in hopes that someone else (especially newer witches or anyone who might be struggling with the state of things right now) will find useful. Enjoy!

Clean your room

Be honest ya’ll… how is your room (or workspace, or entire house) looking right now? Don’t feel called out, mine is a mess too! And while I get that it’s easier when times are rough to let things slide, there comes a point when it becomes disruptive to your energy (and even on a purely mundane level, it’s pretty unpleasant). An untidy space can also attract unwanted and troublesome spirits, which you do not want sniffing around as the veil gets thin! It might not feel like there’s enough time, space or energy to get anything done, but one of the kindest acts of self-care you can do is to make time to tidy up your space and do a thorough cleansing. If you somehow haven’t heard of Marie Kondo’s The Life-Changing Magic of Tidying, now might be a good time to check it out. I’m also a fan of SoulSpace by Xorin Balbes, which has some wonderful insights on how intentionally transforming our living space can help us attract what we want into our lives.
Dust thoroughly, empty out all clutter and trash, and open windows to let fresh air and sunlight in. If you have any emotionally-loaded items, like clothes you don’t like or fit in anymore (or ouch, letters/gifts from an ex), consider letting them go if you feel up to it. For some extra oomph while cleaning, sprinkle sea salt on the floor or carpets and let it absorb negative energies, then sweep or vacuum it up. Smoke cleansing is next: I like palo santo for getting malicious spirits or energies away (make sure you source it ethically), but other herbs can be burned for cleansing. Dragons blood incense is another popular choice for protection. Walk around the room wafting smoke all over, keeping your intention for a safe, healthy space in your mind. When you are done, sound a chime or clap your hands three times, and say a prayer for protection. If you feel you need extra protection, look up the Lesser Banishing Ritual of the Pentagram (or LBRP). It’s a classic for a reason! I also like to sprinkle holy water and/or Florida Water around to help ward off negative spirits and energies. Another easy thing you can do for basic protection maintenance is planting rosemary outside your house or even keeping it in a pot indoors. Other plants have protective properties too, as well as really brightening up your space.
Don’t neglect your altar(s), tools, and materia! Make sure you include them in the cleaning. Depending on your tradition, there may be specific protocols in place that you'll want to follow. For your altar space, dusting everything off and making sure every surface is wiped clean is a good start. I like to do a wash with clean water, salt, and Florida water. If you work with herbs, check them for freshness and make sure they are in proper containers. The same for any offerings or other consumables you use in your practice. Purify your tools with salt, water, and incense if you don’t have any particular protocol (there is a good guide for this in Mastering Witchcraft by Paul Huson, but I’m sure you can find something basic with a little Googlemancy).
You know what? Throw a few ritual baths in there too for good measure. This recent post by Sphere and Sundry has some excellent tips if you want to be extra, but I tend to go for uncrossing baths from Hoodoo Rootwork like this one described on Impact Shamanism.

Your health comes first

Honey, take care of yourself! I know I’ve been enjoying wine and ice cream a bit more than I ought too… but with all the chaos in store in the coming days, the last thing we can afford is taking our health for granted. You probably don’t need to completely overhaul your entire routing, buy a bunch of exercise equipment and become a keto nerd, but at least see to the basics. Eat plenty of produce, drink plenty of water, get plenty of sleep, and try to get up and walk around throughout the day. If you’re feeling more ambitious, that’s great too! But this October in particular, avoid anything too intense if you aren’t used to it. Personally, the most extreme thing I recommend (as a fellow witch only, I’m NOT a doctor or nutritionist!) is avoiding drugs and alcohol for the month, and incorporating more anti-inflammatory foods like berries and fatty fish. I am also very much a believer in the healing power of nature, so I plan to spend plenty of time (air quality permitting) outside, connecting to the earth, trees and sky. Earthing - getting direct physical contact with the soil - is an excellent practice to take up while the weather is still nice.

Take a break from social media and online bickering

So you want to stay “connected” and you want to stay “informed” - but really, how good are those connections, and how trustworthy is the information? And is it worth all the angst? Is the world a better place for all the time you spend fighting with online strangers? I can’t answer these for you, everyone has to draw their own line… but I’m willing to bet we’d all be better off taking a BIG step back from arguing with people on the internet. To be clear, I’m not saying you should stop caring, or stop working for a better world. But maybe the energy you spend on Twitter could be better spent actively helping your neighbors - consider helping out or donating to a food kitchen, helping people register to vote (and make sure you’re registered!) or even just doing random acts of kindness.
For the sake of your mental and spiritual health, if you’re finding yourself getting defensive, agitated, or downright hostile online… just step back. All the madness will be waiting for you when you get back, and you’ll be amazed by how much better life is without all that noise.

Make space for silence and stillness

I’m sure you’ve heard this before, but I know I need reminding from time to time.
Meditation is magic.
If all you do is sit still for 5 minutes and let your mind wander, that’s cool. If you do a more formal meditation style like Vipassana or Transcendental Meditation, that’s also cool. Do whatever works for you! There are countless free apps and YouTube videos to help you learn techniques for any background or belief system. The hardest thing for me is staying consistent and battling perfectionism. Try to remember: there really is no wrong way to meditate.
One other thing I’d add to your daily practice this is some kind of energy work. Reiki is popular, but there are others too. My personal go-to these days is the Pillars and Spheres technique in The Sorcerer’s Secrets by Jason Miller.

Honor your Dead and connect to their wisdom

I mean, what kind of witch would I be if I didn’t mention the ancestors? Connecting to them is not just a nice thing to do (they’re family after all, and they wish you’d call more), but it may be the single most impactful thing you can do for your craft. Whether your goal is protection, luck, success, health... really anything, your ancestors have your back and want to help. Now, I know that family can be complicated - my own is kind of a mess. But if you go far enough back up the line, you’ll find ancestors who lived well and dealt with their baggage during their lives or after - death has a way of giving you some perspective, after all. These mighty dead can even help you with healing some ancestral trauma.
If you don’t already have one, now is a FANTASTIC time to start an ancestor shrine! Once again I commend Chiron Armand and his blog post on building and tending an ancestor shrine. Another good resource is the book Ancestral Medicine by Daniel Foor. The Chaos Protocols by Gordon White also has a very useful chapter on building a better relationship with the spirits of the dead.
Alright folks, that’s it from me! Try to be gentle with yourself in these difficult times, and remember that you have all the magic you need to get through this.
(Edited for formatting).

Hello!
I hope you're all doing well.
These events are chaotic in the worst way possible, there are so many cancellations, fighters dropping out, or getting COVID, it really makes what I do here difficult because when i write about a fight, and then the following morning the fights off, it really makes me wanna headbutt a goat.
Anyway, lets get onto it before 10 more fights get changed.
(c) - Champ
(D) - Debut
FLS - Fight Lose Streak
FWS - Fight Win Streak
NS - No Streak
(#x) - Rank in Division
Prelims
Heavyweight
Alexandar Romanov (D) (11-0-0, 11 FWS) v Roque Martinez (D) (#2 Japan) (15-5-2, 2 FWS) - I have very little to say here that I didn’t already say last time about Romanov, and with this prediction being written up last minute due to the very late addition, I don’t have any deep analysis on this, I still think Romanov is a dangerous fighter and he’s probably gonna get the win.
Romanov via KO R1
Women’s Flyweight
Sabina Mazo (8-1-0, 2 FWS) v Justine Kish (7-2-0, NS) - A decent start to this event. Mazo is an excellent, fast and snappy striker who keeps up a certain pace throughout the fight, she isn’t hesitant to throw combos and keep the pressure going, and her length certainly helps with those outside jabs and heavy kicks. Mazo is a physically large fighter for the division, compared to most of the other women, and that gives her an advantage in the striking department, but the only issue is that she isn’t great up close and within the pocket, she’s efficient at a distance and needs to stick with that reach advantage in order to get the win. Kish has been on the back burner for quite a while and has only just returned this year, coming off a very dominant win over Lucie Pudilova, Kish is predominantly an outstanding kickboxer with fairly decent power in her strikes, and she seems to be a fairly patient striker at that, waiting for a perfect time to launch an attack and land as clean as possible, but she does come at a fairly large reach disadvantage (5 inches) so she needs to either chop at the legs to slow down Mazo’s forward pressure or have a heavy focus with counters. It’s a fairly good fight all in all. I got Mazo on this one.
Mazo via UD
Welterweight
Bryan Barberena (14-7-0, 2 FLS) v Anthony Ivy (8-3-0, NS) - To say this isn’t an exciting fight, would be the biggest lie of the century. Barberena is always down to a good and wild scrap. He’s not afraid to trade with the toughest of them and he’s constantly moving forward, eating shots left and right, and firing back on all cylinders. Now, even though he’s on a losing streak, note that he’s lost to some very dangerous and powerful strikers and knockout artists. Barberena will be looking to take off the head of Ivy and throw it back into the regional promotions because he really needs a win. Icy is a long, lanky, dangerous knockout artist with an excellent ground game to boot. He may have had a setback during his debut, but i’m sure he’s looking to redeem himself, he’s still young and no doubt has a whole lot of talent behind those fists. Ivy needs to stick and move, treat this fight like a marathon because Barberena is a very dangerous fighter, regardless of his losses. We are still yet to see more than one minute of Ivy fight so i’m judging this off mostly on Barberenas advantages and experience in his career. Bit of a rough prediction, and Ivy could surely shock the world, but I got Barberena on this one.
Barberena via KO R1
Lightweight
Alan Patrick (15-2-0, NS) v Bobby Green (26-10-1, 2 FWS) - What a fight. Patrick is a phenomenal submission artist who favours the grappling part of fighting much more than the standup part. In his last win against Hadzovic, he landed 9 takedowns and absolutely dominated the fight. He has superb control and it’s clear that most of his game plan is to take the fight to the ground and control the fight there. He may not be the most exciting fighter on the roster, but he is quite effective when he wants to be. He is however reaching that age where it’s make or break. His extended break from MMA no doubt hurt his career and shortened his time in the UFC, I mean, his last fight was during UFC 229, and the division has changed substantially since then. His chances of getting his name out there to the casual fans is quite low, but boy did he pick a great fight to be a part of. Green is coming off an exceptional performance over Lando Vannata a few months ago, that fight was absolutely beautiful and he outstruck Lando very cleanly, he just beat him to the punch and got out of the way before Lando could retaliate, it was a bloody good fight. Green's advantage here is obviously his boxing, he has such a great set of hands and the speed behind those punches is very high. Green is going to be treating Patricks face like a speed bag if Patrick lets him. I got Green on this obviously, but goddamn is this a great opportunity for Patrick to get his foot in the door for some higher level fights.
Green via KO R2
Roosevelt Roberts (10-2-0, NS) v Matt Frevola (8-1-1, 2 FWS) - A fairly interesting fight. Roberts has been pretty active this year, fighting Weaver and Jim Miller within two weeks of each other, I feel like his additional weight cut when he fought against Miller hurt his performance a little bit, so i’m expecting Roberts to look much more fresh coming into this fight. Roberts is typically a very well rounded fighter, not an outstanding striker or grappler, he’s just very well rounded. He has never landed more than 60 significant strikes in his UFC career, but that isn’t to say that he’s terrible, because he’s methodical, he waits, and wait, and wait, and then executes a series of excellent strikes that land to great effectiveness, then he resets and waits for the next opportunity. He’s boring to watch, but successful in his career. Frevola has been a victim of the pandemic, losing a couple of fights due to cancellations and his corner catching the virus, Frevola is hopefully going to get a fight this weekend, if not then he is truly cursed during this pandemic. Frevola is a powerful wrestler who keeps an insane pressure and pace, always looking to take his opponents down. I’m not sure what he’s working on at the moment in terms of skill set, whether he’s added more striking to his style or if he’s worked on submission, but there’s no better opponent to return to than Roberts. I’m 50/50 on this one but i’m leaning on Roberts.
Roberts via UD
Women’s Bantamweight
Julia Avila (#12) (8-1-0, 4 FWS) v Sijara Eubanks (#15) (5-4-0, NS) - Avila recently got a savage knockout very early in the first round of her fight against the returning Mazany. It was a beautiful moment for her career and it certainly put her in the spotlight. Avila is a very well rounded fighter who has adapted both the stand up part of MMA and the grappling part very well into her skillset. She may not have the greatest striking, or the greatest grappling but she does just enough to get a win, she easily adapts to her opponents and that allows her to time her strikes perfectly. Eubanks is often on the receiving end of the internet’s most horny MMA fans because of her physical appearance, but I can guarantee you that she can defeat every single one of those doubters. Eubanks has an excellent forward moving pressure, and she’s always throwing punches, she doesn’t necessarily land those punches but she throws them anyway, giving her opponent very little time to think and react. With that said though, I don’t see her getting the upper hand in this fight, she’s a little too one dimensional and Avila is an adept grappler. So, I got Avila on this one.
Avila via UD
Flyweight
Matt Schnell (14-5-0, NS) v Tyson Nam (19-11-1, NS) - Schnell was a fairly dominant fighter between 2017 and 2019, with wins over the likes of Espinosa and Smolka, he has recently somewhat fallen off the radar from many fans, including myself, I actually thought he was a debuting fighter because well, hes bounced back between bantamweight and flyweight and I wasn’t sure if he got caught in the Flyweight cull. Schnell is a very well rounded fighter who is excellent on the ground, and with Tyson Nam as his opponent I feel like this will be just another reason to watch out for Schnells ground game because Nam is a phenomenal striker and not so great on the ground. Speaking of Nam, Nam recently had a beautiful Counter knockout against Adashov, and really, it was his last shot to get a win in the UFC and boy did he turn a few heads. Nam has a lengthy background and as I have stated multiple times during his UFC career, he joined very late and he’s getting up there in age so he’s going to have to work his ass off to get as far as possible before the younger generation catches up, which they basically already have. Interesting fight really, I don’t know who I have winning this, but if Schnell doesn’t get knocked out then i got Schnell on this one.
Schnell via Sub R2
Main Card
Lightweight
Billy Quarantillo (14-2-0, 7 FWS) v Kyle Nelson (13-3-0, NS) - Quarantillo had an outstanding performance against Carlyle a few months ago, he showed excellent boxing and a very good ground game. He is only two fights deep in the UFC though so i’m certain that there’s more to say about him, but judging from his two fights, he just seems fairly well rounded, and his last fight was a cherry on top. I expect Quarantillo to show some classic wrestling in this fight because he really is a strong wrestler who really drives with those takedowns. Quarantillo is always ready to bang it out as well, standing toe to toe against a relentless Carlyle with crazy action throughout all three rounds, it just showed us that Quarantillo is dangerous in all rounds. Nelson had a remarkable knockout against Polo Reyes a little under a year ago, and he really needed that win because he was on a tough losing streak and it wasn’t looking too great for Nelson at all. He was relentless with that finish, nothing but power and aggression. He’s very much going to give Quarantillo some challenge on the feet, and that’s the fun part of this match up, there are going to be some wild exchanges, but I strongly feel that most of the difference will be on the ground, Quarantillo is such a controlling grappler, he might land a takedown and just, dominate Nelson on the ground, he might keep the pressure up with solid ground and pound as well, but either way, you’ll see some great action in this fight. Excellent match up.
Quarantillo via UD
Ed Herman (24-14-0, 2 FWS) v Mike Rodriguez (11-4-0, NS) - This is a fun fight. Herman definitely lives up to his name, because boy does he get violent when he fights. He has had 5 cancellations in 2020, he was scheduled to fight Da Un Jung twice, with the second time Jung withdrew and Gerald Meerschaert became a replacement, who then got the ‘rona, Meerschaert then was scheduled to face Herman once again this weekend but he withdrew, being replaced by John Allen, who then withdrew, and now is facing Mike Rodriguez, so to say that Herman has had a very rough 2020 is putting it gently. He’s gonna be looking for a finish this time because he no doubt needs that lucrative bonus money, and he has the hands to put anyone to sleep. Rodriguez is coming in as a late replacement so I don’t really expect him to have a whole lot of cardio or training because of his limited camp time, Rodriguez has very crisp striking, his boxing is excellent and his outstanding reach advantage over his opponents only plays into his striking capabilities. Rodriguez has a very strong clinch, his elbows and knees are absolutely dangerous and they will be imperative for fighting Herman because of Hermans crashing style, and Herman will need to get inside to deal damage because there’s such a huge reach difference between the two fighters. I got Rodriguez on this one, he’s composed and he’s dangerous at range and in the clinch, I don’t see Herman getting anything clean in unless Rodriguez risks close combat.
Rodriguez via KO R2
Women’s Flyweight
Andrea Lee (#8) (11-4-0, 2 FLS) v Roxanne Modafferi (#9) (24-17-0, NS) - A relatively interesting fight. Lee is an expert Muay Thai fighter who has such a dynamic range of striking, and she is very fast with those strikes as well, it’s very hard to read what she’s going to do because of her diversity with her striking. She’s currently on a bit of a losing streak but she is still one of the most dangerous strikers in the division, everything she throws comes with that extra oomph and stacks up the significant strikes counter very fast. Her only noticeable weakness which she has no doubt worked on is her ground game, she has been taken down and dominated multiple times throughout her career and since Modafferi is predominantly a wrestler with a strong BJJ base, she’s going to need to avoid the takedowns of Modafferi and keep the fight on the feet to get any success. Modafferi is such a lovable fighter, she’s so cheerful and just a stark example that you don’t need to be a cunt to be a fighter. She was relatively unknown prior to her TUF debut, and since then has caught the attention of many out there, she’s the most experienced MMA fighter in the women's divisions and with that experience comes skill. She may not be the most fluid striker in the world, she’s very stiff and incredibly unorthodox with her striking, but it works, she’s always moving forward and always looking for that takedown. I can see her getting huge success on the ground against Lee, and whilst i shouldn’t compare Lee to Maycee Barber, look at how dominant Modafferi looked against Barber. I got Modafferi on this one, but i'm not super confident.
Modafferi via UD
Co-Main Event
Lightweight
Khama Worthy (16-6-0, 7 FWS) v Ottman Azaitar (12-0-0, 12 FWS) - What a beautiful fight. Worthy is an insane, powerful, wild striker. Worthy is very fast on the feet, not only with his punches, but with his movement, it’s excellent and very reactive to his opponents movements. He keeps his right hand tucked near the chin, always ready to land a devastating cross or overhand. Worthy isn’t afraid to trade, he won’t back down from adversity and always retaliates when he gets hit. He’s never complacent with just standing and waiting so he’s always looking for action. Azaitar is an undefeated prospect coming out of Morocco and he is one of the most dangerous first round fighters in the unranked portion of the division in my opinion. He’s very explosive and has insane accuracy with his punches. He’s a prospect in every right and I honestly don’t see him slowing down, that is, until this fight. This is no doubt his toughest fight yet and these guys are going to be landing some solid punches against each other, but when it comes to technique, i feel like Azaitar has a far cleaner style, and will perhaps get the cleaner shots in. Very tough fight to predict here, but I do love an undefeated prospect.
Azaitar via KO R1
Main Event
Women’s Strawweight
Michelle Waterson (#8) (17-8-0, 2 FLS) v Angela Hill (#11) (12-8-0, NS) - An interesting fight. Waterson will no doubt have the upper hand here after having experienced the ferocious Joanna Jedrejczyk for 25 minutes, that alone no doubt has given her enough experience to take on a fairly active but kinda average Hill. Waterson has an outstanding stand up game, implementing a karate style that fits her MMA style very well, her lead kicks are beautiful and accurate and they no doubt will play a huge role in this fight to keep Hill at bay. She doesn’t necessarily have power in her hands, but she does have excellent range control and should be able to keep Hill just out of range. Hill is a very active fighter, she has fought the most times this year and was very active last year as well. Hill is a ferocious, fast kickboxer who is always looking for a good scrap, she’s got a slight reach advantage over Waterson so there’s a likelihood that she might get some clean shots in, but that’s entirely dependent on what Waterson has planned for Hill. This is a 5 round fight so I predict that in round 4 and 5 we might see a noticeable drop in cardio from Hill. I don’t know what else there is to say regarding this fight. I got Waterson on this one.
Waterson via UD
And that's it.
No Turner v Weaver prediction because that change happened this morning, just as I was finishing up this prediction post so really, not enough time to do all the research. It will however be in my tapology prediction but it's not very thought out so bet on that at your own discretion.
If you would like to follow me on twitter, you can find me @Slayer_Tip or if you want, add me on discord and we can have a super friendly chat about all things MMA: Slayertip#7013
Let's have a friendly discussion down below :)
For now, take care, stay safe, and enjoy your weekend!

The old one was archived, so here's a fresh one so the questions/answers can continue.

WHAT’S A FIGHT STICK?

It’s a controller reminiscent of the controls used in an arcade cabinet, generally featuring a joystick and multiple buttons. Most can be played on a lap, while some are heavy and large enough to warrant a table or platform underneath them. Using one over a standard handheld or console controller won’t magically up your game and they are largely preference. They are most commonly used for fighting games, shmups, run ‘n guns, and classic arcade titles. At their simplest, a fight stick requires an enclosure (usually made of wood, acrylic, or metal), buttons, a joystick, a PCB, and a wiring harness to connect everything. Additionally, all-button fight sticks that don’t utilize joysticks are becoming more commonplace on the scene.

WHICH STOCK FIGHT STICK IS BEST?

This is largely a matter of taste and budget. Here are just a few options to get you thinking.
ENTRY LEVEL: Qanba Drone and Mayflash F500
If you go much cheaper than these options, you may sacrifice quality and durability. DO NOT GO CHEAPER THAN THESE OPTIONS.
SOLID LEVEL: Hori Real Arcade Pro N/4/V, Razer Panthera, Qanba Obsidian, Hori Fighting Edge, Mad Catz TES+ (and Razer Atrox for Xbox One players)
SOLID BUT $$$ LEVEL: Qanba Dragon, Victrix Pro 5, etokki Omni
In my opinion, the Qanba Obsidian has won this generation’s stick battle, and I see a ton of players have gone this direction. At the end of the day, go with what feels right and fits your budget. There are lots of awesome sticks out there.
For more in-depth reviews: Jeux Arcades, ConsumerExpert, Tom’s Guide, PCMag, bestarcadesticks

WHERE CAN I BUY NEW, STOCK FIGHT STICKS?

Price the sticks accordingly across the following websites. Most will be fairly comparable with one another, but occasionally one of the sites may have a deal going on.
Arcade Shock
Focus Attack
Paradise Arcade
Hitbox (for specialty, all-button controllers)
Mixbox (for specialty, keyboard-esque controllers)
etokki
IST Mall (South Korea)
IST Mall QOO10 Store
OzStick (Australia)
Amazon
eBay
Newegg
[If you’re a retailer and want to be added here, please DM me.]

WHERE CAN I BUY CUSTOM FIGHT STICKS?

If you’re in the market for a full custom, consider one of the following vendors. They each have a unique flair and flavor with their sticks, but you can generally expect to pay more for a custom one-off model from one of these guys than you can just buying an over-the-counter affair.
All Fight Sticks
Buttercade
Eternal Rival
Fightstick Guy
Foe Hammer
JonyFraze and JxK Designs
Junk Food Custom Arcades
Marvelous Customs
Retro Stockpile
TorresWorkShop
TR Fight Stick
2nd Impact (out of Brazil)
arcadepc.mx (out of Mexico)
Wallcade (out of Spain)
Blunderbuss Designs One Zero (out of UK)
Modding in UK: LionoBO0o
[If you’re an active custom builder and want to be added here, please DM me.]

ART & TEMPLATES

Focus Attack's art and plex templates
Arcade Shock's Color program
Tek Innovation’s PSD files
Free Fight Stick Art subreddit
DIY Custom Fightstick Art Tips and Tricks
Slagcoin's Joystick and Panel Layouts

PERSONALIZED ARTWORK

If you'd like to support the FGC art scene, here's a list of active artists who can give your stick a facelift for some reasonable fees. Check out their portfolios, commission one you like, print it up, and swap out that stock template with some personalized artwork all your own.
_Exitbag
Arcadia Customs
AustinSV
Bearwitt
CKNG
Custom Stick Art
DeathZeroZX
Entember's Art Shop
Ethnic Toast
EvermoreStandard
FSG and Clay Patterson
Glorious StickART
hugs_n_giggles
Ilan Tesone
JxK Designs
Sudsack
[If you’re an active artist and want to be added here, please DM me.]

CUSTOMIZING FIGHT STICK HARDWARE AND DIY

Obviously many players enjoy customizing their sticks. Everything from lever, to the button type, to the tension in the lever, to the enclosure itself can be changed to better fit the style of the user. If you’re making your own from scratch, here are some things to keep in mind.

COMMON ISSUES:

• Make sure you buy the correct button size. Most buttons on the top face of fight sticks are 30 mm. If you have smaller hands or want that Hitbox vibe, then 24 mm might be appropriate, but most of the time, people go with 30 mm. Auxiliary buttons (home, share, PS, etc.) are generally where you find 24 mm. All buttons have a unique feel, but some common brands include Sanwa, Seimitsu, Crown/Samducksa, Hayabusa, and GamerFinger. Here's a helpful page about button and joysticks: Joystick and Button attributes
• When you’re ordering your buttons, you’ll also notice that there are generally both snap-in and screw-in button types. Most of the time, it won’t matter which you choose; however, as a general rule of thumb, if the top face of your enclosure is on the thicker side, go with screw-in buttons.
• Make sure your layout lines up with your art. Some printing shops won’t print art with existing licensed characters, so you may have to visit more than one if you’re trying to get it done locally.
• You’ll need to keep in mind the games you’d like to play and on which platforms they are found. In my mind, PS4 and PC have more and better fighting game exclusives (though KI on XBone was great), so those platforms would probably be the best bet if you’re just getting into the fighting game genre. Regardless, look to see which consoles the stick actually supports when you’re buying. If you’re building your own, then make sure the PCB you choose is compatible with your console/PC. The PCB most common to this generation of custom sticks is the Brook PCB.
• Most stock retail sticks come with Sanwa parts (besides Hori which comes with Hayabusa).
• American style parts will most likely not fit a Japanese stick due to height.
• Korean levers with collars won't fit a traditional Japanese stick due to the size of the joystick hole.

LINKS/YOUTUBE

Core-A Gaming
Scanline City
NihongoGamer
Alex Nostalgix
HurtboxTV
JasensCustoms
JoyStickNY
WoolieVersus (Scrubguides: Arcade Sticks 101 video)
Cross Counter TV
JonyFraze
Mr. Sujano
Hit Box

DISCORD

Our vision is to continue to grow and be a hub for fighting game controller tech as well as a safe space for trades and sales, something like the spiritual successor of SRK’s Tech Talk and Trading Outlet. Discord mods CaptainInsanal and Happycloud are happy to talk shop or to help you find another outlet beyond eBay to buy and sell your fight stick.
If you haven’t joined the Discord, consider stopping by to see what it’s all about:

DISCORD INVITE

*And this should go without saying, but sales conducted through there are at YOUR OWN RISK (always do your own homework), but in general, most people are trustworthy and there’s been very few instances of people being burned. Please no price flaming and remember that it’s always a good idea to pay with the PayPal Goods and Services option so you are covered if the deal falls through. Any questions, ask one of the Discord mods. Also, if buying and selling fight sticks is your primary interest, consider visiting Fightsticksforsale since that is their main area.
If you have any other links or information that you think might belong here in this welcome FAQ, post here or DM me so I can update accordingly (and huge thanks to hugs_n_giggles for helping with this one). If you have any minor questions that don't deserve their own threads, then reply here and the community will usually have an answer for you. Minor questions are also perfect for the Discord.
*If no one responds to your question here, feel free to create a thread to get it some more visibility.

Previous Post
We are all literally lost at sea. Events are happening right in front of us and we don't even notice them, let alone remember them. And it's a big problem.
Am I exaggerating. Nope. Are you reading this thinking that your memory is fine? Probably. Are you right? Probably not.
Want proof? Of course you do. Perfect. Strap in and let me save you from drowning in a sea of information.
Forged By The Sea.

2014 August 19 – A Shenyang J-11 intercepts a U.S. Navy P-8 Poseidon anti-submarine warfare aircraft flying in international waters the South China Sea. 2015 October 27 – US destroyer USS Lassen navigates within 12 nautical miles of the emerging land masses in the Spratly Islands as the first in a series of "Freedom of Navigation Operation".

Most of us realize that the South China Sea is a flashpoint. A few of us know that we are alrwady engaged in a Gray Zone war and this Sea is the most probable area where the war will become overt.
How close are we to this tipping point? A lot closer than I thought.

December 05, 2017. After more than 18 months of research, development and focus group testing, the Navy has announced its newest recruiting slogan: “Forged by the Sea.”

Granted, getting a new slogan is normal, and normally I wouldn't even think twice about it. But we don’t live in normal times anymore, we live in New Normal times.
Sail the World. Join the Navy.

Jan 6, 2017, 11:59 AM. The US operates the most aircraft carriers of any country, but for the first time since at least 2000, and possibly since World War II, not a single US carrier was deployed, the US Navy has confirmed to Business Insider. The US had the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower deployed in the Persian Gulf carrying out an air campaign against ISIS in Iraq and Syria until late December, but that carrier returned home December 30

This isn't normal. The Navy insists it is. And yet they were carrying out Freedom of Navigation patrols at the time. Wouldn't you want your most powerful vessel's sailing? Instead all of them are docked. Sounds more like last minute upgrades to me.

2016 August. The Louisiana, a nuclear ballistic-missile submarine, and the Eagleview, a Military Sealift Command support vessel, collided while conducting routine operations in the Strait of Juan de Fuca off the coast of Washington State. There was damage to the hulls of both the Eagleview and the Louisiana. No one was injured. 2017 May. A 60- to 70-foot South Korean fishing boat collided with the Lake Champlain, a guided-missile cruiser, on its port side while the cruiser was conducting routine operations in international waters. No one was injured. Fishing boat crew members later said the fishing vessel did not have a radio, so they did not hear the calls from the Navy, a Navy official said at the time. 2017 June. The USS Fitzgerald collided with a Phillipine container ship in killing seven sailors. Then, just two months later, the USS John S. McCain collided with a Liberian merchant vessel, killing 10 sailors. Megan Eckstein, deputy editor for USNI News, part of the U.S. Naval Institute, told me the National Transportation Safety Board found the USS McCain collision was caused by a helmsman who was confused by his touch-screen displays. He meant to slow the ship down, but instead made a sharp right turn.

Those are a lot of accidents in a very short time frame. Maybe it's all the New Normal training procedures in the Navy leaving sailors unprepared to execute? Or maybe they're part of the Gray Zone tactics of an adversary, or adversaries?

2017 February. Additionally, there isn’t enough money to fix the fleet’s ships, and the backlog of ships needing work continues to grow. Overhauls — "availabilities" in Navy parlance — are being canceled or deferred, and when ships do come in they need longer to refit. Refueling and Complex Overhaul. RCOH is a process for refueling and upgrading nuclear-powered aircraft carriers in the US Navy. The nuclear reactors that power some aircraft carriers typically use up their nuclear fuel about halfway through their desired 50-year life spans. Because carriers can last so long before being retired, they are refueled and refurbished with an RCOH to extend their usable lifetime. At the same time a ship is refueled, it is given a complex overhaul in which broken, worn or obsolete parts are repaired or replaced and systems are modernized. The modernization typically includes an upgrade of ship’s combat systems and warfighting capabilities, its internal distribution systems are upgraded, and allowance is made for future upgrades over the ship’s remaining operational service life. Given the size of an aircraft carrier and the number of systems and subsystems it has, an RCOH is extremely complex, costly (several billion dollars), and time-consuming. Each RCOH is planned to take 46 months.

There is no money to fix the fleets. Crap. Perhaps the USA will turn to rowboat or Viking Longboats? Maybe they could borrow some money from other countries that all started upgrading their Navies at the same time.

2018 January. All the New Aircraft Carriers That Are Under Construction. The Royal Navy is continuing course on its plans to field a force of two carriers. The first carrier, HMS Queen Elizabeth, was commissioned in 2017 and is awaiting the F-35B Joint Strike Fighters that will make up her air wing, which should be ready by 2020. The second carrier, HMS Prince of Wales, was floated out of construction dock in late December 2017 and will undergo sea trials in 2019. Long an aircraft carrier power, the Indian Navy currently sails one carrier, INS Vikramaditya. A second carrier, Indigenous Aircraft Carrier-1 (IAC-1), began construction in 2005. The ship has recently been named INS Vikrant and is projected to be complete in 2020. In late 2017, Japanese news outlets reported Tokyo was considering modifying its two Izumo-class helicopter destroyers, Izumo and Kaga, to fly the F-35B Joint Strike Fighter. Chinese pressure on Japanese airspace over the Senkaku Islands and East China Sea and a shortage of airfields in the area were cited as reasons. In 2017, Italian defense contractor Fincantieri began construction of the Trieste, a new amphibious assault ship. South Korea has one amphibious assault ship with a full-length flight deck, Dokdo, commissioned into the Republic of Korea Navy in 2007. A second long-planned ship, Marado, finally began construction in 2017. A third ship, Baengnyeong, is projected but has not yet begun construction. In December 2017 South Korea, like Japan, also reported interest in flying the F-35B off its Dokdo-class ships. Like Japan’s ships, the Dokdo vessels will need extensive upgrades to make this conversion a reality.

Hmmm, are we having a party out at sea? Must be. We couldn't be heading to a war that's about to escalate into open hostilities, are we? That's madness! Nobody would go to war without the USA, and they don’t have enough money to fix their fleet, that's why they're all at port, isn’t it?
Follow the Money.

2019 November 18 More than half of the nation’s aircraft carriers are not currently ready for deployment, as the massive ships sit off the Virginia coastline in various states of repair or testing. When asked by Luria if the Navy has “all the resources you need to maintain our carrier,” Moore responded: “We do.” “When Admiral Moore responded that he needed nothing, I was pretty shocked. I almost fell out of my chair,” Luria said in an interview weeks after the hearing. “That is the first time I have heard anyone say they don’t need anything else.”

WHAT! Hallelujah, they found the money! It must have rained down from Heaven! Or somebody checked the couches at the Pentagon and found the missing 21 Trillion dollars from 9/11 under the cushions. (Don't laugh, this game has been going on for a really long time, so nothing would shock me at this point.)

2017 July 18. A group of cybersecurity researchers is having a field day online with the discovery that the configuration of certain ships' satellite antenna systems leaves them wide open to attack — and the possible consequences are startling. Anyone who gained access to the system in question, and was so inclined, could manually change a ship's GPS coordinates or possibly even brick the boat's navigation system entirely by uploading new firmware. And why would anyone want to do that? "Next gen boat ransomware?," suggested the security researcher x0rz over Twitter direct message with Mashable. "Military special operations? Somalian pirates 2.0?" 2017 August 24. The Navy's 4th accident this year is stirring concerns about hackers targeting US warships.

Oh come on, hacking computers on military boats? Really? Watch, how much do you want to bet that Bill Gates gets to work on a new Anti-virus program for the American Navy once he fixes the pandemic?
The Hack Attacks Are Back.

2019 April 3. The Hawk “veered off course” and struck a test barge next to the Delbert D. Black, a guided-missile destroyer under construction at Ingalls, the suit states. The barge then struck the destroyer. 2019 July 9. U.S. Coast Guard Issues Alert After Ship Heading Into Port Of New York Hit By Cyberattack.

Uhm. Nope. Nothing going on here. Keep Calm and Carry On. Only smooth sailing from now on.
Maybe We Should Call John McAfee

2019. the Navy’s Cyber Readiness Review released in March offered a scathing critique, calling weak spots and persistent holes in the system an “existential threat” to the existence of Navy and Marine Corps. The unsparing 80-page assessment concluded the Navy is under “cyber siege” and has so far failed to secure its IT systems. 2019 December 4. Still, unmanned underwater vehicles (UUVs), cyber warfare attacks, unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), and hypersonic weapons are making the aircraft carrier increasingly vulnerable.

Call me paranoid, but doesn’t this play out like an actual war and they don’t want us to panic? If we happen to get hit by a pandemic in the next few years, I'm going to get really crazy paranoid. Not like this Covid-19 hoax that everyone is going on about, right? No way that's real? But maybe? Just maybe? Let's think? It would be a good way to move around military gear without us freaking out. Or it could be a bioweapon. Or it could be used to mask the environmental collapse that we're about to go to war over for natural resources. Nah. That's crazy talk. We aren’t at war.
GTA: Gray Zone Naval Battles Edition.

2018 October 04. US, Chinese warships within metres of collision in South China Sea, leaked pictures show. 2019 June 7. Russia and US warships almost collide in East China Sea. 2020 January 10. Russian ship 'aggressively approaches' Navy destroyer in Arabian Sea.

I didn't know the world's Navies started playing bumper boats during our Bread and Circuses. That's gotta be a ton of fun, right? We don't have tense sailors that people love out on the frontlines, do we? Crap, we have Frontline workers here too! That's strange.
Loose Lips Burn Ships.

2019 December 12 MOSCOW — A major fire broke out aboard Russia’s only aircraft carrier, the beleaguered Admiral Kuznetsov, while undergoing repairs at a dock in the northern port city of Murmansk early Thursday morning. Russian media outlets reported that fire control teams were struggling to contain and extinguish the blaze, while dramatic videos of the ship surrounded by thick plumes of smoke have proliferated on social media. 2019 December 14. Fire That Scorched Russian Carrier Could Happen At U.S. Navy Shipyards, Too. Outside of the USS Miami, 11 U.S. sailors were injured last month in a fire on the USS Iwo Jima (LHD 7), a critical Marine-toting mini-carrier. USS Oscar Austin (DDG 79) also suffered a fire in November 2018, and repairs will keep the ship out of the fleet for almost two years. 2020 April 11. Black smoke has been seen billowing from China’s first assault carrier in Shanghai. The new Type-075 carrier, which is similar to the U.S. Navy’s America Class assault carriers, is designed to carry helicopters and hovercraft to support amphibious landings. 2020 July 12. 21 injured after an explosion and fire on a naval ship in San Diego.

We must have a pyromaniac on the loose! And he or she hates boats! I guess some people just want to watch the boats burn.
Right Back Where We Started From.
I've written that this war has been hidden in plain sight for a long time. And it has. The middle east was about blocking China from energy resources and accessing rare earth elements. China already has rare earth elements, but they need oil. Controlling the South China Sea gives them a buffer zone and oil, that's some bang for your buck. Like a two for one special.

The South China Sea is a potentially energy-rich stretch of water and home to more than 200 specks of land. It serves as a gateway to global sea routes where approximately $3.4 trillion of trade passes annually.

And Africa.
Jun. 12, 2019. China's national energy companies are set to channel more of their overseas investment to Africa than to any other continent.
Mar. 1, 2005. Oil industries in Venezuela, Colombia, Brazil, Bolivia, Peru and other Latin American countries have emerged as contenders for China's energy.
2005? What? Why that's shortly after the Iraq War and Afghanistan. Is that why the West is still over there? Nah. And maybe China is investing in other countries to help them and not to find fuel for the upcoming war?
Read the headlines. Look at what's happening the last week in the South China Sea. If this doesn't somehow de-escalate, there's no telling how bad it's going to get. I know that people keep asking me for answers, but what answers can I give you? In an era of long range strike capability, all you can do is be ready. Pack a bag. Have food. Keep your gas tank full. Buy extra fuel and keep it on hand.
At the very least read some prepper webpages. They know what they're talking about. Do you really think all of those prepper Doomsday entertainment shows became popular for no reason? The government has warned you to be ready in case of civil emergencies. They've been testing the emergency alert system since 2018. They've been increasing their disaster drills. Take this seriously and pray that it blows over. Maybe it will. But don't shrug it off like this isn’t a big deal, it is. And I have more waiting to write that I hope can keep strengthening my case to just be prepared in case the unthinkable happens.
Because the unthinkable doesn't seem so unthinkable in our New Normal.
Keep your head up and eyes open. Talk soon.

Hello everyone!
I hope you're all doing well.
Sleep issues are slowly being resolved, but as with most problems in life, it's never a quick fix.
Let's get the show on the road shall we?
(c) - Champ
(D) - Debut
NS - No Streak
FLS - Fight Lose Streak
FWS - Fight Win Streak
(#x) - Rank in Division
Lets go!
Prelims
Featherweight
Brian Kelleher (21-11-0, NS) v Kevin Natividad (D) (9-1-0, 5 FWS) - A fairly interesting fight to start off this event. Kelleher has been around for quite some time and he has been fairly active this year, fighting three times during the ongoing health issues that continuously make match making difficult. Kelleher is what i’d like to call a Jack of all Trades, Master of None, featuring Aziz Ansari, his striking is fairly standard for an MMA fighter, throwing excellent kicks, targeting anything and everything, and he is a dangerous person off his back as well, his Guillotine choke is absolutely beautiful. He is very, very well rounded in every aspect of MMA, including feints and movement. During his fight with Azure, he executed feints perfectly which Azure got tricked into retaliating, creating openings that Kelleher expertly made use of. He is a very patient striker, and waits for the perfect moment to land a body shot followed by a swing at the head. Natividad is on a great 5 fight win streak with four of those wins coming from LFA, he is clearly talented and a dangerous striker, with great forward pressure and a wide stance which only helps with his ability to dart in and out of danger to throw a quick combo, he is an exceptionally fast boxer and his reach advantage over Kelleher will be fairly large and no doubt be in his favour stylistically. This is a great fight on the feet and I feel like if Kelleher can avoid the quick shots from Natividad and maybe get a single leg takedown (since Natividad’s stance is wide), he can work from the ground. So, as a safe bet, I feel like Kelleher is going to wrestle and maybe get a submission.
Kelleher via Sub R2
Bantamweight
Cole Smith (7-1-0, NS) v Hunter Azure (8-1-0, NS) - I’m gonna be straight with you guys, I don’t see Smith winning this one at all. Looking over his fight against Johns, there was very little action coming from Smith, and even though the fight had a total strike count of 32 (11 for Smith and 31 for Johns) I just don’t see him getting the upper hand against Azure who is such an active and powerful kickboxer. His only chance at maybe winning is to take it to the ground and eliminate the offensive of Azure completely, but other than that I don’t see how he can get the upper hand. Azure throws absolutely everything into his punches, and he does it with the intent to knockout his opponent and walk away with some big bucks. He landed some significant shots on Kelleher before his loss, and his only issue so far is his ground game, he got taken down three times by Brad Katona (who isn’t exactly a takedown artist), so Smiths only real chance at winning is to take Azure down, but I feel like Azure knows that already and will look for a KO early on or at least just piece him up in the long run. So, yeah, it’ll be a fun fight.
Azure via KO R2
Heavyweight
Marcos Rogerio De Lima (17-6-1, NS) v Alexander Romanov (D) (#1 Europe Balkans) (11-0-0, 11 FWS) - This fight could be interesting to watch, but then again it’s heavyweights so it’s normally always zero cardio bangers. Lima has somewhat always been on the sidelines in terms of popularity, he hasn’t gained too much traction in the UFC, and even though his recent win over Ben Sosoli was somewhat great to see, he still hasn’t really gotten a win over any substantial names. I feel like until he gets consecutive wins, he’ll only be facing either debuting fighters, or fighters looking for a comeback, thus is the life of a UFC Heavyweight. My attention however is on the debuting fighter in Romanov, the dude looks huge, not necessarily in terms of muscle definition but just, he’s a big boy and he has destructive strikes that land with such insane impact, he is also great on the ground, having 6 submissions, most of them being in the first round. So this dude is always looking for a finish very quickly. Ultimately there’s not a lot going on in this fight other than heavyweights doing heavyweight stuff. I got Romanov on this one.
Romanov via KO R1
Women’s Flyweight
Montana De La Rosa (#12) (11-5-0, NS) v Viviane Araujo (#15) (8-2-0, NS) - This is a pretty great fight. De La Rosa has been a very dominating fighter in the division, a great submission artist and a very proficient boxer. She is very well rounded and has pretty good movement to back up her striking capabilities, it is only recently that she started facing actual fighters and not people who the UFC is trying to push, so hopefully we see a lot more tougher fights to push her boundaries as a capable fighter. Araujo is a very well rounded fighter who has the propensity of taking her opponents down in hopes that she can get a quick submission in. Even though she doesn’t have a submission win in the UFC yet, it’ll come soon enough because you simply cannot waste a Black Belt in BJJ on the biggest stage of MMA. I feel like she will look for a takedown against De La Rosa early on to get the advantage on the ground and gauge De La Rosa’s ground game. It probably won’t be an instant submission but expect a fair bit of exchanges on the ground. Tough one to pick but I feel like Araujo has this one.
Araujo via UD
Middleweight
Bartosz Fabinski (15-3-0, NS) v Andre Muniz (19-4-0, 5 FWS) - Fabinski had a really interesting time this year, he was scheduled to face Shavkat Rakhmonov in march, but due to the pandemic and the cancellations of fights, he had a fight in Cage Warriors against Darren Stewart. I can’t remember a time when this has happened, but then again how rare is a pandemic. Anyway, Fabinski is a dangerous takedown artist and it’s incredibly difficult to avoid a takedown from him since he either chain wrestles or just drives and eventually gets his opponent off balance. He might be a bit of a boring fighter hence why he is rarely spoken about, but his stats don’t lie, 22 takedowns in his 3 UFC wins (excluding his win over Stewart because that was in CW), he is an exceptional wrestler and he will no doubt be looking to take the fight to the ground and avoid any submission attempts Munoz can give.. Muniz had a bit of a struggle getting into the UFC, fighting on DWCS twice before eventually getting a contract, Muniz is a dangerous submission artist who has a shitload of submission wins in the first round throughout smaller regional promotions, he is amazing on the ground and will be looking forward to being taken down because well, it would save him the hassle and energy of taking Fabinski down. Anyway, as with a lot of wrestler v submission fighters, there will normally be a whole bunch of strikes being exchanged and I’m not too sure who is the better striker in this regard. It’s a tough fight to predict because really anything can happen, but i’m slightly leaning on Muniz on this one, he seems far more well rounded and if the fight goes to the ground he has the arsenal and techniques to get a submission.
Muniz via Sub R2
Main Card
Lightweight
Thiago Moises (13-4-0, NS) v Jalin Turner (9-5-0, NS) - Moises seems to be the ultimate fighter in patience. He was getting absolutely dominated on the feet against Michael Johnson, he only landed one significant strike throughout the fight. Eventually he locked in an Ankle Lock and that was the end of the fight, now, I doubt he’ll be that patient when he fights Turner because Turner is a very slick striker on the feet and will piece him up, but In this particular case I feel like Moises will be more proactive with the takedowns and do whatever he can to avoid the striking game of Turner. Now, Turner might have somewhat of a rough record, but he always puts on pretty good performances. Turner has an obvious height and reach advantage over Moises and with that, as usual, comes with a natural advantage in striking. I expect Turner to utilize a lot of movement and use jabs to slowly break down Moises, and sway any attempts or thoughts to attempt a takedown that Moises might want to execute. This feels like your traditional striker v grappler fight and if i was a betting man (I very much am not.) then I’d put money on Moises on a safe bet. I got Moises on this, if he lands a takedown (and he should since it’s a smaller octagon and thus less evasive movement from Turner) then Moises should maintain enough control on the ground to get a submission, probably.
Moises via Sub R3
Welterweight
Michel Pereira (23-11-0, 2 FLS) v Zelim Imadaev (8-2-0, 2 FLS) - Someone's losing streak has got to end. Pereira is a freak when it comes to athleticism, but let's hope he gets sponsored by BP Gas because he’ll need the extra fuel if he keeps doing crazy backflips and flying stuff, dude probably was a trapezist in his previous life. Pereira has insane power with no particular style, his style involves doing crazy shit that sometimes works. Now, unfortunately he lost his last fight via DQ but he is still a fairly dangerous, unpredictable fighter who can knock out his opponents pretty cleanly if it lands. Imadaev has a whole lot to do in this fight in order to successfully win. He needs to survive and evade, because Pereira is probably going to come out crazy in the first round, and that drains his energy like nothing else. Imadaev is a very well rounded fighter who might have bitten off more than he can chew when agreeing to this fight, especially considering he lost his last fight via KO, albeit by an excellent boxer in Roberts, but that aside, Zelim is always down for a good scrap and whilst he has lost both of his UFC fights, i’m pretty interested to see what he has changed in his camp in order to adjust to Pereira’s odd and unorthodox fighting style. I got Pereira in this fight, but that’s if the fight lasts only the first two rounds.
Pereira via KO R1
Women’s Bantamweight
Sijara Eubanks (5-4-0, NS) v Karol Rosa (13-3-0, 4 FWS) - This isn’t a very high calibre fight but it’s interesting regardless. Eubanks is a relatively well rounded fighter but is mostly a strong striker, not strong in terms of her striking capabilities, but mostly in her strength, she packs quite a punch and can, at times, be aggressive on the feet. She’s also a black belt in BJJ but we don’t really see her on the ground a whole lot, and I doubt she would want to go to the ground against Rosa who is a far better grappler in my opinion. Rosa is one hell of a striker, she’s always down to throw volume and keep the pressure going, landing 120+ significant strikes in both of her bouts in the UFC, she’s a cardio machine and is always looking for a good scrap. I see her getting the upper hand on the feet here easily, she’s got the movement and striking finesse to get the win here, but I don’t think it’ll be a finish. I got Rosa winning this one by Decision.
Rosa via UD
Co-Main Event
Light Heavyweight
Ovince St. Preux (24-14-0, NS) v Alonzo Menifield (9-1-0, NS) - I’m copying this straight from my last prediction since this is a rescheduled fight. This feels like the old v new fights that happen from time to time. OSP is no doubt one of the bigger names in the UFC, recognisable for his Von Flue Chokes and his general ground game, OSP at the moment is having a bit of a rough run, coming off a rough split decision loss against Ben “muahahaha” Rothwell. I feel like OSP’s time is nearing its end which is unfortunate because i’ve been quite a fan of OSP but he’s just going to keep facing younger and tougher talent, and in the case of Alonzo Menifield, he needs to be careful of those hands because Menifield is a train that’s going to crash straight through you if you’re not careful. Menifield is a powerhouse but he did struggle against wrestlers who were capable of controlling his mobility, in this case Clark shut down Menifields power, and whilst the fight was boring, it gave many of us a clean look at what Menifield needed to work on, and that’s his wrestling. Menifield has the capabilities to knock anyone out, that’s for sure, but unless he’s been working on his takedown defence (especially against OSP) then he’s going to have a rough time. I don’t know how this fight will go. I feel like OSP will be looking for a takedown somewhere and just use his BJJ to find a submission. Please, don’t bet based off this prediction because it certainly goes against the narrative of “Old man with great grappling skills v Powerhouse”. I got OSP on this.
OSP via Sub R2
Main Event
Heavyweight
Alistair Overeem (#5) (46-18-0, NS) v Augusto Sakai (15-1-1, 6 FWS) - This is a beautiful match up. Overeem has been around for quite some time now, in fact I believe he is one of the oldest and most experienced fighters who has always been in high calibre fights, I’m surprised he hasn’t retired yet to be honest. His kickboxing is on a very high level and the power he carries is pretty substantial and has the ability to just knock anyone out. His ground game is also on a fairly high level, with excellent use against knockout artists like Rozensruirk, Overeems fight IQ is certainly up there amongst the best. He does have a very challenging fighter ahead of him in Sakai, who has made quite a name for himself over the past few months. Sakai had a relatively tough fight against Ivanov a few months ago where he could have easily lost the fight if the ref caught him grabbing the fence whilst being taken down. Sakai has insane power in his hands but at the moment he just seems like a heavyweight that can swing. I understand the hype surrounding him but I’m not entirely sold on him just yet. I got Overeem on this one. Gotta back the Reem.
Overeem via KO R3
and that's it!
I hope you guys enjoyed this writeup. It's a pretty decent fight night, not too great, not that terrible, just right!
If you would like to follow me on twitter, you can find me @Slayer_Tip or if you want, add me on discord and we can have a super friendly chat about all things MMA: Slayertip#7013
Let's have a friendly discussion down below :)
For now, take care, stay safe, and enjoy your weekend!
o/

1. Introduction

From 2013 to 2015, the Cardinals won at least 10 games in each of those seasons. They followed up with a couple of years where they finished close to a .500 record. Things got even worse in the past two seasons, during which the franchise compiled an 8-23-1 record.
Now in year #2 of head coach Kliff Kingsbury and QB Kyler Murray, it’s time for Arizona to make a leap forward.

2. Regular Season Wins

According to sportsbooks, the Arizona Cardinals are expected to win 7 games this season. Should we bet the “over” or the “under”?
Here is the methodology I used in order to answer this vital question:

• Use BetOnline.ag’s point spreads on all 256 regular season games.
• Convert those point spreads into win probabilities.
• Simulate each of the 256 games, according to those win probabilities, via the R statistical software.
• Repeat the previous step one million times (you get 1M simulated seasons).
• Count the proportion of seasons where the Cards won more or less than 7 games.

Here are the results (excluding simulated seasons where they won exactly 7 games, in which case the bet ties):
​

	Estimated prob.	Sportsbook	Odds	ROI
OVER 7 wins	53.1%	10Bet	-110	+1.4%
UNDER 7 wins	46.9%	William Hill	+110	-1.5%

​

• Tip: Bet OVER 7 wins
• Return On Investment (ROI): +1.4%
• Rank: 32nd-highest ROI out of 32 teams
• Minimum odds required to bet (i.e. ROI = 0%): -113 (i.e. 1.88 in decimal format)

Note: The “Best odds” from the table above were obtained after looking at 13 well-known online sportsbooks on May 18th, 2020.

3. Offensive Position-by-Position Breakdown

3.1 Quarterbacks (QBs)

Kyler Murray had a very successful rookie campaign as Arizona’s new franchise quarterback.
Despite a suspect surrounding cast, he posted very respectable numbers with 3,722 passing yards, 20 TDs and 12 interceptions. He was also dangerous as a runner, as shown by his 544 rushing yards.
Murray was the victim of 48 sacks, but he was hard to catch. Indeed, he finished in 2nd place in terms of average time from snap-to-sack among all QBs in the NFL.
Now with one full year of experience under his belt, you can expect Murray to take a nice leap and improve his game even more in 2020.
Brett Hundley will once again back up Murray this season. The Cards must hope they won’t need him because he has never shown he could lead a team to success. The former Packer is clearly no more than a #2 QB in this league.

3.2 Running Backs (RBs)

The Cards got a nice bargain last year by trading a sixth-round pick in exchange for Kenyan Drake. He was nothing short of spectacular in his eight appearances in the desert by racking up 643 rushing yards over eight games. He also scored eight touchdowns during that short period.
During the offseason, the Cards re-signed him to a one-year, $8.5 million contract. The team also traded David Johnson to Houston, which clearly puts Drake as the starter.
Chase Edmonds will be the main backup runner. He showed some flashes with a nice 5.1 yards per rush average. The third-year pro is good insurance in case Drake gets hurt.

3.3 Wide Receivers (WRs)

Kyler Murray probably popped a bottle of champagne when he heard about the acquisition of stud wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins from the Texans.
Losing David Johnson in the trade isn’t that big of a deal for the Cards, who already had good depth at the running back position. However, acquiring a big-time WR like Hopkins is HUGE!
Hopkins has played either 15 or 16 games in each of his first seven years in the NFL. He has averaged 1,229 receiving yards and 7.7 TDs during that time span.
He consistently ranks among the top receivers year in and year out. In 2019, he finished with an 87.8 grade from PFF, which had him ranked as the 5th best WR.
Unbelievable: Larry Fitzgerald is coming back for a 17th season! He did better than expected last season by catching 75 passes and finishing 53rd out of 122 qualified wide receivers in the league based on PFF.
Fitzgerald claimed he loved the culture under new head coach Kliff Kingsbury and he wants to help the team both as a player and as a mentor for the younger guys.
Christian Kirk, a former second-round pick in the 2018 draft, had an okay year. His 62.5 grade by PFF had him ranked as the #91 WR (out of 122). With Hopkins drawing a lot of attention from opposing defenses, Kirk must make a leap in 2020. It remains to be seen if he can do it or not.
Arizona lost some depth at the position after seeing Damiere Byrd leave for New England, while Pharoh Cooper signed with Carolina. It’s not a huge blow to the team, but worth mentioning.

3.4 Tight Ends (TEs)

A young QB like Kyler Murray would certainly welcome some help at the tight end position, but it doesn’t look like it’s going to happen.
The top target last year was Charles Clay. He only caught 18 passes and is now a free agent.
All signs point toward Maxx Williams assuming the number one role. You’ll be surprised to hear he ranked as the 7th best tight end in the league according to PFF. His nice 79.1 grade was obtained via outstanding run and pass blocking.
In summary, the team is pretty thin at this position.

3.5 Offensive Line (OL)

One of the team’s biggest weaknesses in 2019 was certainly its offensive line. They allowed the 5th highest number of sacks a year ago, despite Murray being a mobile quarterback.
The only guy who finished above average based on PFF rankings was Justin Pugh (22nd out of 81 among guards). The other four starters were either average or quite bad.
The bad news? The team has not addressed the position in free agency. They did select Josh Jones in the third round of this year’s draft, though. He has a high chance of becoming the team’s starting right guard right away, despite many experts calling him a developmental project who needs work.
I can’t believe D.J. Humphries is going to be the third-highest paid left tackle in the league after signing a hefty contract this offseason. His paycheck is clearly not in line with his production on the field. In five years, he has played 43 games and missed 37 due to numerous injuries. He finally played through a full 16-game season last year, but he PFF gave him the 47th-best grade out of 81 tackles.

2020 VS 2019 OFFENSE

Overall, I expect a nice progression from this unit. Kyler Murray is clearly more likely to improve than to regress based on his young age. The running back position is set. The receiving corps got a gigantic boost with the addition of DeAndre Hopkins.
The tight end and offensive line positions remain problematic. However, if you compare with last year, it can’t get much worse. Building the line should be one of the top priorities for Arizona in the upcoming years.
Final call (2020 vs 2019):
Big downgrade-Moderate downgrade-Small downgrade-Stable-Small upgrade-Moderate upgrade-Big upgrade

4. Defensive Position-by-Position Breakdown

4.1 Defensive Linemen (DLs)

This was not a position of strength for Arizona last year. Out of 114 DLs, here’s the final PFF ranking of the four guys who got the most playing time: Corey Peters 65th, Rodney Gunter 61st, Zach Kerr 42nd and Jonathan Bullard 94th. Ouch.
Now, Gunter and Kerr are both gone. Meanwhile, the team acquired Jordan Phillips from the Bills. He probably won’t be a savior as he finished in 104th place.

4.2 Defensive Ends (DEs) / Edge Rushers (ED)

Chandler Jones had an exceptional years with 19 sacks! Only Shaquil Barrett from the Bucs recorded more sacks.
Outside of Jones, Terrell Suggs played 13 games before being released by the Cards. He still managed to record 5.5 sacks.
Cassius Marsh played 38% of the defensive snaps and finished 70th out of 107 edge defenders. He signed with the Jaguars during the offseason.
In order to compensate for those losses, Arizona signed Devon Kennard, formerly of the Detroit Lions. He played 82% of the snaps in Detroit and finished 44th (out of 107) at the position. He obtained 7 sacks last year (7 more the year before).

4.3 Linebackers (LBs)

Jordan Hicks was a tackling machine with 150; only Bobby Wagner (Seattle) and Blake Martinez (Green Bay) had more in 2019.
However, Hicks didn’t grade particularly well. He finished 43rd out of 89 linebackers.
Haason Reddick and Joe Walker both finished in the bottom: 86th and 79th. Walker left for San Francisco, which is not a big loss.
Arizona signed De’Vondre Campbell who played 89% of the snaps with the Falcons. Can he improve the linebacker play in 2020? I doubt it. His poor 50.1 grade gave him the 70th rank. Here are his grades the previous three seasons: 57.4, 69.1 and 55.7. He is a durable guy, but far from a great player.
DC Vance Joseph declared #8 overall pick Isaiah Simmons would primarily play at linebacker. Simmons was super versatile in college, playing many positions. He will provide good coverage against TEs and pass-catching RBs, while also defending the run efficiently. He clearly has Pro Bowl talent.

4.4 Cornerbacks (CBs)

Patrick Peterson is clearly the leader of this group. He was having a decent season, and was brilliant in the final few games. He finished as the number 39 cornerback out of 112 guys. He missed the first six games of the season because of a suspension.
There is not much depth behind Peterson, though. Byron Murphy played 98% of the snaps, but finished with an awful 48.8 grade. The 2019 second-round pick will need to elevate his game A LOT this season.

4.5 Safeties (S)

Budda Baker and Jalen Thompson provide an adequate duo of safeties. These two guys are still young and we can expect some improvement in 2020. They finished last year as #28 and #57 out of 87 qualified safeties. Baker accumulated 147 tackles, 4th in the NFL.

2020 VS 2019 DEFENSE

No major changes for this unit. Given they’ve allowed the 5th highest number of points last year, that’s not good news.
The lone position where the Cards have improved this offseason is linebacker because of the acquisition of Isaiah Simmons via the draft and De’Vondre Campbell as a free agent from Atlanta.
Or perhaps the couple of young safeties can take a leap? Maybe, maybe not. It may be wishful thinking.
To summarize, the team added Jordan Phillips, Devon Kennard, Isaiah Simmons and De’Vondre Campbell. They lost Rodney Gunter, Zach Kerr, Terrell Suggs, Cassius Marsh and Joe Walker. To me, those changes offset. Perhaps it will turn out to be a small upgrade.
Final call (2020 vs 2019):
Big downgrade-Moderate downgrade-Small downgrade-Stable-Small upgrade-Moderate upgrade-Big upgrade
Thanks for reading!
Professor MJ

Hello everyone! So, polling. It's a very hot topic these days with a lot of misinformation and misunderstandings floating around in regards of polling. Most of it I believe is well meant, at least around these parts (although some is definitely malicious), and so here's a write up on the topic of polling which will hopefully clear some things up and correct some errors. Note: I am not a professional on this topic, although I will try to make sure that everything I claim to be factual is based on the opinions and writings of the experts. Also not, I may have missed somethings, but I've tried my best to be as exhaustive as possible (hence the length of the post)

What Polling Is

So, what is polling and how should we use it? It might not seem obvious at first, so here are some general points about polling.

1. Singular polls are singular data points. There more data points you have, the more accurate you get. Don't take a single poll as gospel, no matter how good it is quality wise.
   
2. Every poll has a margin of error. Usually the margin of error for proper poll ends up at around 2-6 ppt.*(there's a caveat to this, but more on that later)
   
3. Sampling size is a fairly small part of a quality poll. 1000 respondents in Texas for example may seem small, but it is probably more than you actually need. What matters more is how the poll is conducted and weighted. Use the 538 poll ratings to get an overview of the quality of each of the polls. (Worth noting that their grade for Emerson is outdated, as they've completely switched methodology since 2018 to one that would probably bring them down to a C. Here's a thread on Emerson.) Some things to look out for to know if a pollster is good or not: 1. Accuracy (most straight forward one probably. How well did they do in the last election?) 2. Herding (have all their polls more or less the same result? If so, it might be that they are discarding polls that go against the presumed result, such as outliers. If a pollster does this, they might have a bunch of polls published that in the end all end up being wrong, even if each one individually might be pretty good on its own) 3. Big, uncalled for swings (this is the opposite of herding. If every poll is an outlier, something is probably wrong. In particular if one poll is an outlier in one direction and the next in the other, as it means it's not just a bias, which all pollsters have to a degree, but something wrong underneath the hood)
   
4. Polls aren't forecasts. Polls are snapshots in time. You can make out trends based on movement in polling aggregates, but just looking at the evolution of the poll results of a single pollster isn't necessarily a good way to look at it (unless it's a tracking poll. Although there can be issues there as well). 538 does not do polling, it is not a pollster!
   

Common myths about polling

I'd like to dispel some common "myths" about polling.

1. "X poll was wrong, thus polling can't be trusted" Polls are only individual data points, and are not very useful on their own. A lot of polls are outliers (although it's worth noting that outliers are a good thing and you should be as suspicious of pollsters that are too consistent as of those that are too random in their results), and different pollsters have different built in biases (although it is worth noting that polling biases aren't necessarily towards one party or another). Use polling aggregates if you want a proper overview of the polling situation. I would also recommend checking out forecast models (more on models/aggregates below).
   
2. "National polls are useless, only state polls matter." Whilst it is true that presidential elections are decided state by state and the Electoral College, using proper models the EC advantage can be calculated. National polls also generally have smaller margin of errors than state polls and are generally more accurate.. Best result is a combination of state and national polls, which is what proper forecasting models such as 538's or The Economist's model that takes both state-level polling and national polling into account.
   
3. "Polls benefited X last election, thus they will benefit X this election as well." There is no evidence of this. In general it is seemingly random. If there is a major polling error in one direction or another one election cycle, then proper high quality pollsters will generally try to adjust for the next cycle. For example see the Great Lakes region, where there was a polling error in favour of the democrats in 2016. Now in 2020 polling in the Great Lakes region is significantly worse for Biden relative to other regions than it was for Clinton. That doesn't mean Republicans wont overperform there again, but it could very well be the democrats that overperform this election. A great example of this would be the last two UK elections, where Labour overperformed the first, and then contrary to people's expectations underperformed in the last.
   
4. "Suppressing mail in ballots hurt democrats disproportionally, meaning polling will overestimate democrats." No clear evidence of this, and there is a lot of conflicting information on this topic. It may very well hurt republicans just as much in the actual election than democrats. This is also why some republicans "surprisingly" have criticised Trump in this regard. Trump's crusade against mail in ballots is if anything, nonsensical, at least from a "getting re-elected perspective". What it's more likely to do is delegitimizing the democratic process and creating room for being able to claim that in the event of a defeat that the election was illegitimate...
   
5. "Voter suppression and fraud neutralizes any lead, no matter how large." These aspects can have a decisive impact on close elections, but unless the election results are simply made up (see: Belarus) the effects are relatively limited, especially in a country as the US. There is a reason why even straight up dictators from time to time lose elections.
   
6. "Texas won't matter this cycle. And don't believe polling in Texas" I just want to single out Texas since it is an interesting state this election. The thing about Texas is that it is trending in the opposite direction of the Midwest, and swings in Texas are generally independent of those up north. And if Biden wins Texas, he could lose Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania and still win. That would be unlikely, but it's a statistically likely enough of an occurrence that it is worth bearing in mind. Also worth bearing in mind is that polling in Texas both in 2016 and 2020 actually showed a significantly larger republican lead than the actual results. Now, there is no evidence to suggest that just because polling overestimated one side on election that they will overestimate that same side again next election, but it does mean that contrary to popular belief, if polling shows a tie in Texas it most likely actually is a tie.
   

2016 polling, what was the deal with it?

1. National polling was spot on. The final Clinton margin in polling, according to 538, was 3,6. The actual margin, was 2.1, which is perfectly within the margin of error and about as accurate as it gets. National polls are in general the most accurate polls you'll find: they'll usually have larger sample sizes, more thorough methodology, are less prone to region specific errors (more on this later), and there's simply more of them. Of course, the EC screwed her over, but as I mentioned before it's possible to take it into account. In 2020, the chances of a Biden win depending on his popular vote margin according to The Economist's G. Elliot Morris are the following: +0-1: 4% to win the electoral college +1-2: 12% +2-3: 30% +3-4: 57% +4-5: 80% +5-6: 93% +6-7: 98% +7-8: 99%
   
2. People vote by region almost as much as they vote by state. What I mean by this, is that states are interlinked, with similar states voting similarly. (At the bottom of The Economist's forecast you'll find a handy model for inter-state correlation.). Some notable correlated regions would be the great lakes/Midwest region (MN, WI, MI, IA, OH, PA, MO), the Southwest (CA, NV, AZ, NM, TX - although the correlation between these states is clear, it is looser than in the great lakes/Midwest), The South/Deep South (MS, LA, AR, Alabama, Georgia, SC, NC, TN). There is plenty of overlap though, and some other interesting correlations (Montana is closely tied to the Great Lakes, Maine too). This means, that if polling in one of these regions happens to favour one candidate over another, then it is likely that it has also favoured that same candidate in the other similar states. In practice, this means that if WI, MI and PA all are close, it is likely that one candidate will win all three. And even if the candidate that overperformed regionally didn't win all the states (that would be unlikely), it is likely they did overperform in all similar states. If Biden overperforms in PA, he'll not only likely also win WI and MI but also come much closer in Ohio and Iowa, even if he doesn't win there. In 2016, polling in the Midwest/great lakes overestimated Trump, primarily due to the error of not weighing by education in most state polling (an error that has since mostly been corrected), which is ultimately what won him the White House. In some states, this error was much bigger than others, with WI and IA falling outside the margin of error, whilst PA and MI fell mostly within. These polling errors happen every election, however they very rarely happen to happen exactly where they needed to happen for an upset. Some polling statisticians do for these reasons consider the true margin of error, at least for state polling, to actually be around 7%.
   
3. We don't remember 2016's polling because it was wrong, but because the candidate in the lead lost. This is EXTREMELY IMPORTANT. 2016 was an unusually close election in the end, meaning a relatively small error could, and did lead to an upset. Plenty of other US elections have had much worse polling than 2016, but we simply don't remember those elections because the candidate in the lead won. Had Clinton won the election with a 10 point popular vote landslide, that would have been a much, much larger polling error than the one we had, but no one would really have bat an eye because the presumed winner, well, won. Of the 36 national elections (midterms and presidential elections) the US has had where modern polling has been a thing, 34 of those elections had the party/candidate in the lead go on to win the election. The only two elections where polling predicted the wrong winner was of course 2016, and also 1948 (although worth mentioning that there was 1/50th the amount of polling, and it was a lot less scientific in those days). National polls did accurately predict the winner in '18, '14, '12, '10, '08, '06, '04, '02, '00, '98, '96, '94, '92, '90, '88, '84, '82, '80, '78, '76, '74, '72, '70, '68, '66, '64, '62, '60, '58, '56, '54, '52, '50, '44, '40 and '36 (note: there was for some reason no polling for the '86 midterms).
   
4. The media is not the same as polling. The media, probably unintentionally, created a narrative in regards to polling. We remember the narrative and general discourse much more than the underlying data, especially if the data goes against our preconceived notions of the race.
   

The polling situation in 2020

1. National polling is fantastic for Biden. He's never been below 47% and has stayed at 50% or above for most of the race (compared with Clinton who never got to 50%!). No candidate consistently polling around 50% has ever lost an election (although there are to be fair not a ton of elections to compare it to.) Furthermore, no Incumbent behind in the post-convention polling has ever been re-elected.
   
2. If you ignore RCP (more on that later), Biden is doing better in all swing-states than Clinton, with the possible exception of the Midwest (which is more a sign of polling being much better there than in 2016 than him actually doing worse than Clinton).
   
3. Texas is as I mentioned earlier, in reach! Trump is of course favoured, but for the first time in decades it's actually looking pretty good! (The senate race on the other hand... well, you can hope for the best at least, but it's very much a long shot). Due to how close the election is in Texas and how big the state is, there actually a fairly good chance Texas ends up being the tipping point state. As it stands, according to Morris from The Economist, the chance of each of the probable tipping point states being the tipping point state is as follows: PA: 22% FL: 17 MI: 14 WI: 8 MN: 6 TX: 5 AZ: 5 NC: 4 VA: 4 GA: 3 NV: 3 NH: 2 NM: 2 CO: 2
   
4. 2020 is the most stable contest on record. The biggest change in polling for Clinton over the course of a week was 3 points, compared with Biden's biggest change within a week being 1.5 points. Also, the smallest lead Biden has ever had was 3.4, back in mid April, compared with Clinton who was tied in late July (and the RCP average even showed Trump in the lead). Things could suddenly become volatile in Trump's favour, but it's unlikely. Biden and Trump are known quantities, and the civil unrest and COVID-19 are likely to stick around until election (neither of which is helping Trump.) Although support for the protests and BLM has fallen over the last couple of months, support for Trumps handling of the crisis hasn't gone up.
   
5. Trump is in a slightly better polling position than in June (and even more slightly better than in July), but he's also closer to election day, and the difference is within the margin of error. It is likely that it will tighten slightly, but it is also quite possible for the race to widen again or simply not move at all.
   

Why polling shouldn't be ignored

Alright, this is more of an opinion than analysis, but I want to include it anyways.

1. It lets you know what to target. What are the battlegrounds? Where should I donate? etc,. Well, roughly at least (keep in mind the margin of error and possibility of an upset)
   
2. Constantly saying that we're actually way behind is a lot more discouraging. I don't know how you're going to motivate someone by saying that they should think we are hopelessly behind (seriously, if we were 10 points behind at this moment, there would be no possible way for Biden to ever win. Might as well pack up and leave the country!). A lot of potential democrat voters in for example Texas already think their situation is hopeless, EVEN THOUGH IT ISN'T, and focusing on negativity isn't going to motivate them and convince them that their votes do matter, and they do matter!
   

Election models

1. RCP - DON'T USE IT! RCP is pretty good for their historical records going back to 2000, but they are in a lot of ways an awful aggregator. Thanks to their method of just picking the five most recent polls and not doing any weighing, they are prone to a lot of phantom swings. I've seen people freak out/read way to much into the RCP average despite the only movement being due to five similarly biased pollsters releasing their polls at roughly the same time. RCP is also clearly partisan and there's little they are doing to hide their right wing bias, and although that in and of itself doesn't disqualify them, the fact that they do not include several high-quality pollsters without giving any reason (they refuse to answer if you ask them). This third aspect is in particular why you shouldn't put to much stock in RCP, since it's not a matter of a misleading model, but a matter of straight-up lying.
   
2. 538. Ok, 538 is pretty good! Although, there are some issues to take into account. First, they include even some low quality pollsters such as Rasmussen, attempting to weigh them. Silver's philosophy here is that variety is good, and that the occasional error caused by it is cancelled out simply due to the amount of data. Weather or not it's a good way of doing it I can't answer (I don't think anyone has a definitive answer), but it is worth bearing in mind as it has at points during this cycle led to smaller phantom swings. My biggest issue here is with the actual forecast model. Now, I don't think there's anything malicious in regards to how Silver configured his model, but I do think he's become a victim of ego and fear. I get the sense that he's worked a bit to hard on adding uncertainty, not because it is warranted, but because he feels that there should be. See: his use of NYT headlines in his model. Some of the output is also really wonky as a result, with it spitting out some ridiculous results like Biden winning literally every single state except his home state! Also, as some have pointed out, if you look at California which the model gives Trump around 0.36% chance of winning (seems a bit high, but ok, fine), if Trump wins California - according to the model - Biden still has a 25% chance of winning the election. Meaning, of the 40k scenario it produces each day, a dozen of them have Trump winning California yet losing Texas and other states causing him to lose the election. No other model has such a scenario occurring even once. All of this is to say, the 538 forecast has some really wonky behaviour and I don't really trust it. All of that being said, there's most definitely nothing nefarious about it and Silver may very well have some points in regards to uncertainty.
   
3. The Economist. Personally my favourite of the bunch. Maybe a bit to certain when it comes to some things, but is in general much clearer in the information it provides than 538 and the data and model itself seems robust and good. All of that being said, Silver is more experienced (although that is not always a good thing), and I wouldn't take even my favourite model as the undisputed truth.
   
4. JHK Forecasts. I we're talking about experience this is the forecast with the least experience behind it. I don't know the ins and outs of it, but, from what I can tell it's actually pretty decent! I generally like the UI of this one, even if the sports analogies are potentially problematic, and it also has forecasts for the Senate and House (although once 538 releases their House/Senate forecasts hopefully, I don't really see any reason to use this above 538's). So, do what you will with this one.
   
5. Helmut Northrup/Allan Lichtman. Um... feel free to completely ignore these two. Northrup's model is complete nonsense to almost a comedic degree and Lichtman's model, although tempting, is very subjective and most of it's success has had just as much to do with luck as factual inference. Also, the notion that he has predicted every election since 1984 is also a half truth (maybe even a lie!). Also also, polling predicted every election between and including 1950 and 2014, including midterms, which is an even better track record than Lichtman and that's not even including forecasts! Only reason to bring up Lichtman is if you want to feel better, but you can just look at the polls if you want that. And if we're supposed to be on the side of science, I don't think we should spread this around.
   
6. Betting Markets... just... don't even think about using them as election models. I could do an entire writeup on how the not only conceptually are an awful idea to use for this purpose, but how the data itself is completely contradictory and in general useless.
   

I apologize if there's some repetition in the text, I wrote this on two separate occasions, and I wanted to be sure I didn't miss any important detail. Also not a native English speaker, although I hope that wouldn't affect anything.
TLDR: Polling good, not perfect. Don't ignore it, but learn how to use it.