Mrs. Claus walked into the workshop with a sack full of mail.
"Letters sure are coming earlier every year," she said cheerfully.
Santa grunted. He was fully aware of how much his workload was increasing over time; Earth's population was constantly growing, and corporations were always trying to make a quick buck by starting the holiday season earlier every year. If that wasn't bad enough, toys seemingly became more complex by the minute.
At the moment, he was concentrating deeply on a circuit board for some newfangled tablet for kids. Unfortunately, a bead of sweat dripped off his nose onto the board, ruining his hard work.
He sighed and pushed the board away, frustrated. "I miss the good old days when kids were happy with a wooden horsey. Elves can do horseys. Elves can't do tablets and smartphones and singing dolls."
"I know, dear," Mrs. Claus said consolingly. She was always concerned for his well being at this time of year. She just knew the stress couldn't be good for his heart, immortal though they may be.
He sighed again, shaking his head as he stared at the circuit. "How many letters in this sack?"
"A bit over two thousand," she said. "But look! These five aren't Christmas wishes!"
"Let me see those," he said, standing up and taking the mail from her. "Ah, yes. Two credit card offers, one request for a donation to wounded veterans... Oh, this is nice. Dionysus is hosting another party."
"What is it this year? Day of the Dead?"
"No, Halloween. I guess he's feeling a bit American this year. Could be fun," he remarked. "And what's this?"
The final letter was an unmarked envelope. Curious, he ripped open the top.
"I do love Halloween parties, but it's always a pain to pick out good costumes. Do you have any ideas, honey? Honey?" she asked as he pulled out a newspaper clipping from the envelope.
He didn't answer for a moment as he read the clipping, an advertisement for a local event.
Pictures with Satan! Bring your children and help get our town in the Christmas spirit!
"Honey? What is it?" she asked as he stared at the ad.
"I have the perfect costume idea," he said.
Satan was unamused. His demons always insisted that they go to these stupid "immortals only" parties so they could get into the thick of drinking, but he hated them.
It wasn't bad enough that he could only get the rejected souls that God didn't want. No, he also had to drag himself out of bed to some dumb party where Jesus would inevitably bug him the whole time:
"Dad wants you to rethink your career!"
"Dad says to stop corrupting the mortals!"
"Dad says you don't visit enough!"
Never mind the fact that dear old Dad never came to these parties. He was too busy being Almighty up in Heaven, where everything is perfect, la-di-da.
But he had to admit that wasn't the only reason he was pissed. No, it was because Dionysus, again, had put "Satan" on the invitation instead of "Lucifer". He had asked him a million times, and the lazy drunk had still not bothered to fix it.
So he was already in a terrible mood traveling to the party, and it only got worse when he walked in and saw Santa dressed in bright red with horns, a pointed tail, and a pitchfork, hamming it up.
Santa stood in the middle of the crowd, playfully jabbing at Hades while the surrounding crowd laughed raucously. He stormed over and shoved his way into the center of the circle.
"You know I don't look like that," he sneered. The crowd's laughter quickly died off when they saw who had arrived.
"Relax, Satan, it's just a joke," Santa said placatingly. "You know, because people are always mixing up our names when they spell them. It's all for fun."
"Fun? Please. I'm sick of people pretending that it's all just a joke when they make fun of me. Did you know they still think I like goats on Earth? Did you?"
Santa's eyes darted from side to side as he looked for support from the crowd.
"Come on, Satan, relax! It's not like you have a hard job anyway!" a voice called from the crowd.
"WHO SAID THAT?" Satan yelled. He spun around, staring at the immortals in the crowd. They all turned away as he made eye contact with them.
"Who. Said. That?"
"Does it matter who said it? We're all thinking it," another voice said.
This time, the crowd also turned to find the voice, but there was no one at the place where it came from.
"Ha ha, very funny. Is that you, Loki?" Satan asked.
Thor, who had been standing in the crowd dressed as the MCU's Thor, looked around. "Isn't that him passed out in a corner?" he asked.
Mrs. Claus was closest to Loki. She walked over to him and slapped him around a bit. "Yep. He's out cold," she confirmed.
"Look, Satan, bud," Santa began. "No offense, but it really doesn't matter. You always show up to these parties with a chip on your shoulder trying to pick a fight. You need to relax more."
"Relax? I bust my ass all day with the shittiest mortals in existence trying to make sure they're appropriately punished because dear old dad decided to give them free will and evil. How am I supposed to relax?"
"Didn't you give them free will and evil with that whole apple?" Jesus asked innocently.
"It wasn't an apple, for fuck's sake! You wouldn't even know! You weren't alive then!" Satan yelled, frustrated.
"Look, I'm just saying that some days, I wish people actually did switch us," Santa said. "I'm sick of trying to make new boring toys all year for spoiled kids who don't know how good they have it."
Satan stared at him. "You're serious? You think little kids are worse than the souls of the damned? You don't even have to see the kids. You just break into their houses and eat their sweets."
"I spend all year making billions of dumb toys, and what's my reward? I have to drag them out to billions of houses all over the world in a single day. It's not as easy as 'eating their sweets', which, by the way, makes me sound like a pedophile."
"Oh, are you not? Could have fooled me with your obsession," Satan taunted. "Besides, you get all those little shits to help you, the elves or whatever. And speaking of pedophilia, why do they have to be small and childlike? You got some sort of Sally Hemmings arrangement going on?" He winked at Mrs. Claus.
"I'm not a pedophile! And you get demons! What's the difference?"
"Look, if you think demons-"
"ENOUGH!" Allah yelled, annoyed. "Can you two just get a room and leave already?"
Satan and Santa looked at him, startled. For the first time, they noticed that the crowd had slowly trickled away and they were just yelling at each other.
"He started it!" Satan said. Santa rolled his eyes.
"I don't care who started it. I'm ending it. You, Satan, you think his job is easy? And Santa, you think his is?"
They both nodded uncomfortably.
"Then just switch, for me's sake!"
Satan and Santa looked at each other. "I don't know if-" Santa began.
"I don't care what you think. I don't care!" Allah said, holding up a hand as Satan began to protest again. "Just switch. One year. Does anyone else have a problem with that?" he asked the party, who had been trying to ignore the fight but had returned their attention to Allah's intervention
No one spoke up.
"Then it's settled. Santa, you become Lucifer, Prince of Darkness. Satan, you're Father Christmas. Now go home and leave us alone!"
The party was silent as Santa and Satan made their way out of the party and into the parking lot.
"I, uh... are we really doing this?" Santa asked, unsure.
"I don't think we have a choice now," Satan said bitterly.
"Okay. Well, I guess you have to take my sleigh back. Blitzen knows the way. There's no key or anything, just get in and maybe throw them a handful of corn."
"Why co- never mind. I took a dragon. It'll get you home."
"This one?" Santa said, pointing at one of the dragons in the celestial parking lot as he walked towards it.
"No, that's Jormungandr. To the left- No, that's Ladon... It's the one with seven heads!" Satan called. He gave Santa the thumbs up as he finally headed to the right dragon.
"This is going to be a long year," he muttered to himself.
Part 2
Part 3

[WP] During the godly beings Halloween party, a game of truth or dare orchestrated by Loki led to a bet between Santa and Satan. The bet? Who can last longer in a job exchange.

The REAL Greatest Short Burn of the Century

Disclaimer from Quora: A true short squeeze is a fairly rare event. There are probably 100 predicted for every 1 that occurs.*
There needs to be an unexpected positive event. This could be a huge earnings surprise, a takeover offer, new patent, drug approval, etc.
Unscrupulous stock promoters (PUMPERS) often dangle a potential short squeeze as a carrot to entice inexperienced investors to buy a bad stock. For instance, you will find predictions of a “massive short squeeze” on virtually every message board for every penny biotech stock. If you point out that there is insufficient short interest for a squeeze, the promoters just add lies about “naked short selling”.*

There, nobody sue me for the pennies I have. The following is all for entertainment purposes only:
The intro:
Sup gamblers. Feel bad about missing the gain train on TSLA? Fear not - something much greater and stupider is here.
You know Citadel? The MM that took all our money today? Well now we finally won’t be at the mercy of the MMs. Instead, we’re going to temporarily join forces with the Galactic Empire and hijack the death star.
Our choice of weapon... $GME.
The setup:
Huh?? Isn’t GME an absolute piece of trash stock? NO (will explain below), and even if it is, it's not entirely relevant. The this turn around is going to make TSLA's short burn look like warm afternoon tea.
Why? Well, most short squeezes are mostly math. This one is special because we have math AND great underlying news.
To be clear, this will happen whether or not we participate. I prefer us idiots to be a part of history. Here’s what’s up:
Short interest:
GME currently has between 85% - 99.8% short interest, depending on what site you use. For context, 20% is already considered high as the moon. TSLA and NFLX were around 30-40% at their peak. But GME’S ACTUAL SHORT INTEREST IS OVER 110%. In case you think I’ve gone nuts, look below:

Shares Outstanding (June 2) = 64.8M

Insider Shares (June 30) = 8.9M

Total = Public Float = SO - IS = 55.8 M

Ryan Cohen Shares (8/31) = 6.2M

Total = Adjusted Public Float - Ryan Cohen = 49.6M

Shares Shorted (9/2) = 55.7M

% Shorted (Total Shares) = 86%
% Shorted (Float) = 99.8%
% Shorted (Adj. Float) = 112.3%

This is unheard of. Also, the short interest ratio/days to cover is 16 DAYS right now. Shorts are beyond trapped in their position. And the insiders? They won’t sell. In fact.. they’ve been BUYING.
Fine, what if the shorts are correct? They’ve been printing for 5 years. Ok fellow gamblers, here’s where the real DD comes in. The reversal:
3 big things will cause this reversal. Ryan Cohen, retail option buying, and Kenny G (Citadel) himself.
Who’s Ryan Cohen?
Ryan Cohen sold Chewy in 2017 for $3.3 billion. He poured most of his money into Apple and Wells Fargo, saying he hates diversification and only goes all in into things he has high conviction in. Cohen is a Buffet-like investor. He is the largest individual owner of AAPL, and has sat on his hands doing nothing for 3 years.
Until last week… he went long on $GME.
Who cares right? He’s just another gambler like us willing to lose money. Not in this case… RC is special due to his expertise in e-commerce. He understands how a smaller company can compete against Amazon and Walmart despite heavy competition. THAT, combined with his hatred against diworsification makes his interest in GME a bit special.
RC can spin this into an e-commerce/tech company, which would make Wall Street drool from their mouths. He’s already caught the attention of a few people, hence the recent 75% run up since the RC announcement.
RC only needs to disclose his investments every 10 days. If he’s been buying since 8/31, we won’t know until this week.
Add to that, the original contrarian Michael Burry found that 90% of stores were free cash flow positive before COVID. GME’s balance sheet is healthy with $100M in net cash (around $500M cash and $400M debt), so they aren’t going bankrupt anytime soon. They also added 2 more activist investors, Kurtis Wolf and Paul Evans, who were nominated by Hestia Capital Partners and Permit Capital Enterprise Fund, to turn the ship around.
All this meaning, prominent figures have sKiN iN tHe gAmE, and if needed (unlikely) they have more cash to see it through.
Second and third, degenerate gambling retail robinhooders + CITADEL. Told you we’re going to work with him this time.
Thanks to MMs literally not using their brain and relying on ze maths to configure their entire business, we can take advantage of them sleeping at the wheel for a few seconds, and cause them to ram into GME for us.
It looks like this: RH Call Option buying -> MM Delta hedging/share purchase -> short squeezing -> Greater retail/RHers price action chasing/call option buying -> MM Delta hedging/share purchase -> short squeezing -> Institutional and new channels flip the script -> GME to $400+ -> cash out.
By the way. This is NOT a pump and dump. This is a kick in the shorts’ teeth. The stock will STAY HIGH.
For reference: if $GME was trading at the same P/S multiple as $CHWY, the share price would be $420.
Maths:
On being delta neutral - quick refresher from a WSB classic:

“Part of the reason we see outsized moves is when a stock starts moving the dealers who are short the calls need to buy more stock to hedge. This can easily double the amount of buying pressure out there and lead to very exaggerated moves.
As the stock goes up, so does the delta of the stocks calls and dealers who were originally perfectly delta hedged before the move effectively become short the stock as it moves higher so they need to buy more stock to “hedge up” or flatten their exposure/risk."

Remember, since GME is literally 99.8% of float short (ignoring RC’s shares for now) they currently HAVE LESS THAN 50,000 SHARES IN LIQUIDITY.
https://iborrowdesk.com/report/GME
As of writing this, delta on average is around 0.200, give or take. Higher for near dated (0.395) lower for long dated (0.195). Let’s be conservative and call it 0.2 for the time being. So now, for every call option I buy, MMs need to delta hedge with 20 shares.
Here’s where it gets insane:
If $100,000 in calls are bought from RH, Citadel is forced to buy the remaining 50,000 shares. I’m using 10/16 $15C for this example. This is an insanely small amount of money, especially with Ryan Cohen, retail idiots, and the rest of the SeekingAlpha vultures waiting for this play. It’s a ticking time bomb waiting to happen.
Let’s say Burry wakes up and decides to drop $600,000 in call options. This is going to force Kenny to delta hedge 300,000 in GME shares. When there are only under 50,000 shares available in PUBLIC FLOAT. This has NEVER HAPPENED BEFORE IN HISTORY. In an accidental squeeze (KBIO, VW), the shorts can’t buy back and get priced out momentarily. Pump and dump. Not what's happening here.
In a contrarian bet leading to a squeeze, shorts bail their positions and the stock STAYS HIGH (TSLA, PTON). The stock is no longer being artificially suppressed, and the shorts are NOT going short again.
To tell you the truth, I don’t even know how far this is going to blow up, since there is literally no historical precedent for this. I just know things are about to get very very insane.
Now also add in the fact that GME is at a 5 year low, which means shorts can be largely satisfied with their gains, and are comfortable covering their shorts. Which, as a reminder, they have to BUY back.
-Cut to Ryan Gosling toppling the Jenga pieces-
The timing:
Alright, if you’ve read up to now, I can assume you’re in. IV is off the charts right now. That’s what happens when a stonk goes up 75% in a week. Sorry, but the Ryan Cohen news is actually big news.
PRE-EARNINGS BET
There’s no idea how the call will go. So place your bets if you think it will go well. If $GME absolutely misses the mark, this DD is worthless. BTW GME flopped the last 2 earnings - that's why there have been no big gains. Proceed at your own risk.
Few things I’m betting on:
First, GME beats earnings. All gaming companies, Nintendo, Sony, ATVI beat due to COVID lockdowns. Same store sales should be flat or up, with 300 less total stores. $GME is expected to post a loss of 1.27 EPS. That's way too low.
Second, activist investor activity. Cohen is sharp as a knife and will make sure things get aligned correctly. He's more financially oriented than most foundeCEOs. He can probably recite CHWY's balance sheet to you off the top of his head, and he understands the investing environment (bad IPOs, interest rates, SPACs). Meaning, he's not a gung ho YOLO Masayoshi / Grant Cardone coked out founder. He's disciplined. Yea I did some stalking... Well you know I had to.
Third, positive news cycle due to Console Cycle: http://charts.stocktwits.com/production/original_240233258.jpg
If you’re wondering why fund managers aren’t covering and going long, remember that they have a JOB. They can’t make contrarian bets at the risk of looking idiotic. Cohen and Burry can because they own their own money.
They can talk about how $GME is going to be Blockbustered. Only one problem - GME’s Netflix… is GME itself. By the way, VW was also heavily shorted during a recession because everyone thought they would be bankrupt. Jus sayin.
AFTER EARNINGS
If GME rockets after earnings, the short squeeze has started and we can pile on weekly 10-20% OTM options to force KG to delta hedge by buying shares, ad infinitum: see $TSLA.
If GME tanks, buy cheap options in anticipation of the short burn.
The trade:
In order to capture the biggest upside, the highest strike call option is best. Remember when TSLA was going up so fast they didn't even have existing options to match the parabolic gains? Same will happen here. We only have $30Cs now, so these will have to do.
15 Jan 2021 $30.00 C.
Also, since we don’t know when GME will skyrocket, this gives you time to capture any squeeze that happens.
16 Oct $15.00 C.
This lets you capture more asymmetric upside in case the squeeze happens quickly.
LAST, and timing is crucial here. ONLY WHEN I get the confirmed signal that the squeeze is happening, I will pound weeklies 10-20% above strike price. Again forcing Kenny to hedge with shares, causing shorts to cover and BUY back, increasing the delta of the call, getting retail and institutional attention, buying more calls/shares, delta hedge, shorts cover, ad infinitum.
The weeklies have the highest delta, so Citadel will be forced to hedge the most by buying shares. In other words, we’ll get the biggest bang for our buck in squeezing these.
There is a chance Citadel/MMs switches to buying puts to delta hedge. Like I said, they’re asleep at the wheel for a second, retail will likely ram before they change their algos.
However, once the squeeze takes off, not even Citadel will be able to stop it. In any case, if they do start to buy puts, we can sell the puts as a bonus.
Like dlkdev once said, the only way to beat a rigged game is to rig it even harder.
This is not fraud. There is no manipulation here. We aren’t forcing anyone to do anything. It’s going to happen with or without us. But I want to ride.
Earnings will light the match, but we can add all sorts of gasoline to the fire.
I stole some data/ideas from a couple of different articles on Seeking Alpha/reddit/google/youtube. I’m not claiming credit for this trade, I don’t really care. In fact, I beg you to completely ignore me. I even dare you to short GME. I’ll happily take your money.
TL;DR: $GME is vastly oversold.
GME is TSLA one year ago. GME is AAPL in 2017. Add to that the greatest short burn you’ll see in history, and you’re in for a hell of a show.
Also GME is uncorrelated with the market. It might even be negatively correlated (it was today). It's only worth $500M (3 Bel-Air houses) and fund managers are happy to cut a high risk/low return position. Let your cognitive biases run free.
Ryan Cohen & Michael Burry if you see this - you better buy as much as you can now. When GME gets to fair value of $26B+, you won't be able to take over the company and kick out the backwards exec team. Good luck.
**Edit1: $GME missed and tanked. Not much Cohen can do in 1 week. IV is dead and liquidity is still dry. Get cheap calls while you still can. PLAY IS STILL ON.

My experience with the recent ban (Important if you are in the European Union and got banned)

The story starts as usual: one day, I tried to log in to HB and got the message: "This account is deactivated." So, I wrote to HB support asking what had happened and I got the (now) well-known reply four days later:

Hi there,
Thank you for writing in. Humble Bundle purchases are for personal use only, and the trading or sale of games bought through Humble Bundle is a violation of our Terms of service. Due to these violations, this account has been deactivated and will not be reactivated. Further inquiries regarding this account will not be responded to.
Take care,(Redacted)

As you can imagine, I was pissed with the rude and inflexible reply. Since I know that this is illegal under EU consumer rights law, I replied the same day to that ticket as follows:

Dear (Redacted),
deactivating my account and locking me out of the keys that I purchased is illegal under the laws of the European Union. Your ToS does not supersede EU laws. Furthermore, not allowing European users to trade or resell keys legally bought is also illegal. For example:
https://www.techspot.com/news/81984-french-court-verdict-makes-legal-european-consumers-resell.html
Considering that it took you only 3 working days to reply, I will give you two weeks to give me a satisfactory answer (until August 26th, 2020). Otherwise, I will be submitting a complaint to Germany's Consumers Rights Agency.
Take care.

Note: under EU laws, a business can't use their Terms of Service to force "unfair business practices" (that is, to bypass EU consumer rights).
The next day, I receive the following reply from another person from HB:

Hi there,
Thank you for your patience! We appreciate your follow up. First, I do want to apologize for the response you originally received. That was not what should have been sent. Your account was flagged due to some suspicious activity that violates our Terms of Service. However, we sometimes make a one-time exception depending on the situation and issue a warning. My apologies that didn't happen here. We will be reviewing our internal support procedures to better ensure this does not happen again.
To clarify. Humble Bundle purchases are for personal use only, and the trading or sale of games bought through Humble Bundle is a violation of our Terms of service; this also includes buying games for giveaways.
In order to support Humble Bundle’s mission to be a force for good in the gaming industry, offer amazing deals on bundles, and include great games in Humble Choice, we will continue to enforce our Terms of service.
You should have full access to your account. If you have any further issues, please reply to this ticket directly so I can be of assistance.
Thank you for being a part of the Humble Bundle community.
Take care,

I must say that the patronizing tone was annoying. They didn't seem to even bother to get their excuse right: apparently, I was accidentally given the standard treatment (termination) when I should have been given the special treatment that happens "sometimes".
Furthermore, although I understand that they would not want to acknowledge that they screwed up with the EU laws, carrying on lecturing me on their terms of service and implying that they were doing me a favor by giving me this "exception" was infuriating. The next day, trying to be polite to the person who probably is just doing her job, I replied:

Dear (Redacted),
thank you for your quick response. The issue has been resolved to my satisfaction and the ticket can be closed.
As a friendly advice, I understand that your ToS is legal in the USA, and I understand that you are just doing your job. But since Humble Bundle is selling to the EU, it has to comply with EU laws or it will eventually find itself being sued in a European courtroom.
Have a nice day and thank you again for the prompt resolution of my issue.
Cheers

So, they are sticking to the strategy of getting away with breaking the law betting on the user's ignorance. Therefore, I encourage everyone who is in the EU to complain to HB if you got banned. And, of course, I would love to see them sued.
PS: For those who will say that "you agreed to the ToS so don't complain", you are free to believe so. But I am also free to believe that our laws are to be respected and I want to ensure that every fellow EU citizen affected know their rights as well.

Edit: Since someone asked, I would like to add links to consumer rights resources. This is for the ToS does not supersede consumer rights: https://europa.eu/youreurope/citizens/consumers/unfair-treatment/unfair-contract-terms/index_en.htm
At the bottom of that page, you are given a few options specific to your country (Ask national administrators or Get help and advice).
I used the second, https://ec.europa.eu/info/live-work-travel-eu/consumers/resolve-your-consumer-complaint/european-consumer-centres-network-ecc-net_en which gave me the link to the German site: evz.de

CD Projekt Red breaks their promise on not putting their developers on crunch for Cyberpunk 2077, r/pcgaming discusses whether the employees are being exploited or are being babies.

From Iron in beta to double Diamond this week - what I've learned... sorry, no hype fragmovie

Main account to D2
Second account to D1

Preface

I'm just an average dude with average aim and average scores. This isn't a pro guide, just a compilation of tips and observations I made for myself that can help regular players with very average skills such as myself. You can skip the history part if you're not interested.

History

I've never really been great at FPS in general. I never played any cs, but I played lots of BF4, BF1 and Apex. I played a little Overwatch and some COD Warzone as well but all these games seemed to lack something. That something, I found in Valorant. When I got in the Beta, I was super excited until I realized... I sucked.
I started out as Iron 1 and it took me a month to get out of Iron. I then somehow quickly made it all the way to gold 1 before the end of beta. I then flopped around between gold 1 and plat 1 all throughout Act I. During this act, I started climbing more and more consistently, from gold 1 at the start, to diamond 2 currently (with my act rank as D1 currently).
Also, I should mention I used to always play with my friends, most of the time duo queuing but also stacking up to five regularly. Out of all my friends, I was never the best, they were always the ones top-fragging and popping off more than I ever did BUT I also rarely bottom fragged. About a month ago, I stopped playing with them and only ever solo queued from then on. After that, I noticed a significant improvement in my gameplay and my rank followed along as I went from gold 2 to diamond 2 which is like going from the 55th percentile to the 95th percentile.
Finally, I made a "smurf" account in Act I for when I wanted to play alone. That account has been exactly the same rank as my main since the start of Act II even though it has 10x fewer games. I also kept playing on my "smurf" after ditching my friends but only when I was feeling like I was having an off-day and didn't want to sink my rank on my main but somehow both my ranks evolved at the same pace and both hit diamond within 4 days from one another.
Anyway, here's what I learned:

General advice

Try to solo queue. Every player has habits, and this often causes people who duo regularly to get used to each other's playstyle, which leads them to cater to each other's habits. This locks you down in a certain playstyle and very often prevents you from trying new strats or simply developing new skills which makes you less flexible and causes you to get absolutely smashed when someone figures you out. By solo queuing you'll be forced to play along with more different types of players without having the option to rely on your friend for whatever reason.
Don't think you have to carry every game. This is the reason I included both my screenshots. You can clearly see that I VERY RARELY top frag, yet manage to win very consistently. I'll talk about it in the macromechanics section because a part of this success is in how I play, and the other part of it is in the mindset. This is all about the attitude. We've all had moments where we get absolutely shit on for 5 straight rounds and it feels like we've excreted our will to live but this is not a reason to give up or start trying to play funky games. Keep trying. Legit close your eyes for 15 seconds during the buy phase, take deep breaths and let go of your attachment to the outcome. Which leads me to my next point:
Stop paying attention to the scoreboard. I personally do this, and I know a lot of people also do this. You'll look at the scoreboard and see yourself sitting at 0-6 and tilt, or you'll see yourself at 6-0 while your sentinel is on 1-7 and tilt. Stop. Don't. Your score, or someone else's score, isn't an indication of how useful you/they are. Even if you're "playing like shit" because you're not hitting your headshots, doesn't mean you can't be useful.
Don't be toxic. I know right? Like that needed to be said! Well, I think it needs to be said. Too many of you are toxic without realizing it. That's because you don't go nuclear, but instead just sneak in passive-aggressive remarks that intoxicate your teammates and make them tilt. There's no need to sarcastically congratulate your teammate for finally getting their first kill on 7th round. They know more than you what went wrong and you pointing it out only antagonizes them, it distracts them (as they think of what snarky comment they can make next time you die) and makes them spectate you every time they die (so like, every round) just looking for what mistakes you can make that they can burn you for. It's always better to say something positive and reassuring like "good job, don't worry about the early game, we got this" than something inflammatory. This makes a huge difference in your odds of winning. Playing 5v5 is a whole lot easier than 4v5.
Communicate. Pass the info along, let your team know what you see, tell them your intention. Way too many times do people stay silent and say things like "look at your minimap, are you blind?". This isn't a moba with a low TTK like LoL, here, you often have to hold angles where if you even get your eyes off your crosshair for just a quarter of a second, you're dead. In a tactical shooter like this, for equal skill, the team with the better coms will win 99% of the time. The more useful information your team has, the better their decision-making is going to be.
Dodge. I know this one is going to be controversial but it has to be said. Don't be afraid to dodge lobbies that don't feel quite right. The quickest dodge? 4-stacks with large rank disparities. They are not a good bet, ever. First of all, because they're highly likely to be on discord just talking with each other and not sharing info with you. Secondly, because they're unavoidably going to be toxic towards you the minute something goes wrong. And finally, because (as far as I know) the system assumes that 4 stacks are supposed to be more coordinated, it'll place you against a better team of solos overall. But 4-stacks suck. They're not coordinated, they're just friends that decided to play together and who are kind of just doing their own thing anyways.The other times I dodge is when I'm alone at three divisions above everyone else. These are usually kill-race duels between you and the other team's highest rank, just competitions of who can carry the hardest. Also, and this isn't confirmed info but pretty much all elo systems in the world work like that: being the highest rank means you're a candidate for lesser elo gains on a win and greater elo losses in defeat. It's a high-risk, low-reward situation, it's boring and I'm so glad that they announced that they will restrain the rank division gap that people can queue with in ranked because I cannot stand another Diamond 1 player telling me "it's ok bro, trust me he's gold 1 but he's really good for his rank".
Get the right mindset. You're not better than your rank shows, winning doesn't mean you played well and ranking up doesn't mean you're better overall. Assume you can improve and focus on improving - not winning. Caring more about the outcome than about the process won't get you anywhere.

Macromechanics

Pay attention to the scoreboard. I know I literally just told you the opposite, but this time it's for different reasons.A) Look at the money and make sure to manage your team's econ (e.g. if someone is about to bust the 9k limit, have them buy for a teammate with low money). This probably seems obvious to most of you, but managing your econ is something I've seen diamonds do much better at than golds. Even plat players will sometimes be selfish and not say anything even if they should offer to drop someone. This isn't a major game-changer, but it definitely helps and it's super easy to implement.B) Look at the enemy team's econ. You can eventually predict who's gonna have a shotgun, when Jett's gonna ult, which opponent has util, etc. This will help your decision making down the road and can easily win you rounds.
Don't think you have to carry every game part 2. As shown above, I rarely top frag, yet consistently win. This is because I always play for the round, not the frags. I do my best to look for plays that give my teams opportunities, space, time or info. You can do things such as splitting up the opposing team with util, forcing someone to watch the flank, creating distractions, scouting, flanking, etc. Each of those techniques probably could have their own youtube tutorial and I'm sure there are a bunch out there, but I mostly learned these from watching pros and asking myself why they do what they do.The one thing all these techniques have in common is they require you to stay alive. If you're trying to flank and aggressively challenge enemies and go for kills and die, you're giving the opposing team opportunities to win. If you see a hard push coming to your site and decide to stand your ground and die without being traded, it's bad even if you get a kill. It's (almost) always better to retreat and use util to delay the push until someone can support you. I won't go through every situation, but the general idea is STAY ALIVE and give your team a chance to support you or at least trade you/utilize your death.
Play for the round, not the frags. I mean as a duelist, enter on site first and create space for your team, even if that means dying. As a sentinel or controller, make sure to follow your duelists, support them and place yourself in situations where you can trade them when they go in.Stop trying to get free kills on the rotation while your team is trying to take a site, all it does is pad your kda and boost your ego. It doesn't mean you can't look for rotation kills or flanks while your team fakes a site, but if they commit to a site you need to stop sitting in a corner trying to get a free kill from across the map. Especially if you're the duelist or breach that the team needs in order to enter on site.
Learn how to play for retake with your specific character. Very often, you can secure half the site for your team, which creates space for your team to retake the site after a plant. For example, if you're Brimstone on bind A site, smoking off u-hall and mollying the entrance as the opposing team commits to site almost guarantees that you can keep control of it while they plant, which significantly reduces the number of angles your team has to check before going for the defuse. Similar plays are available for a lot of champions, the key is staying alive and holding the amount of ground you can. It's very often better than to peek, maybe get a kill and then die and force your team to retake blindly while having to check every angle possible.

Micromechanics

There's a million small things like don't run after faking the defuse because it'll tell your opponents that you didn't stick it, or don't slow peak around key corners, or don't not hit your shots, etc. But honestly, I suck. I'm not good at micromechanics.
The one thing I started actively practicing which has significantly improved my results is crosshair placement. This is something that I feel is the biggest most significant improvement most people can make in a very short amount of time that will net them a lot more kills. Just put your crosshair where you think the adversary is going to be before you peek around a corner instead of slowly turning around the corner. When holding an angle, put your crosshair where you think the adversary's head is going to be when he peeks out of a corner. You'd be surprised how many more kills you get just by using pure reflex instead of having to actually aim.
Anyway! I hope this helps someone!
Edit: Woah that's a whole lot of awards! Thank you guys, I didn't expect that!
Something else I should mention that I forgot: Don't overplay. I rarely do more than 3 games a day and I take at least 5-10 mins between games. This is a rhythm that works for me, maybe it's more or less for you, but chaining back-to-back games for hours on end never yielded great results for me. Just getting up and getting the blood moving a little bit helps a lot.

[COMC] Can we meet on a map? Or perhaps bluff over an auction? Count me in!

https://imgur.com/a/uwQC1rJ
(Not shown Button Shy games: Mint Julep and Seasons of Rice)
The History:
Played my first hobby board game my freshman year of college. A friend had heard about a cool new game called Arkham Horror so 4 of us walked to the game store and split the cost. I specifically remember picking up Ra in the store and being so excited that it was a game about Ancient Egypt, only to flip the box over to the back and be utterly disappointed. In terms of theme, though, Arkham Horror did not disappoint. We didn't end up playing the game that night since we took one look at the components and knew we were in over our heads. But for the next 5 years or so, we played that game over and over and over. That was in 2007 - and its been an age of gaming since then. Early games acquired were Coup, 7 Wonders, Dominion and Eldritch Horror. However, one of friends did the majority of the buying for years so it wasn't until more recently that I started looking for myself.
At first, I wanted to be like Zee Garcia when I grew up. I wanted to like little unknown card games with cute art and simple mechanics. It was during that time that I acquired Paper Tales, The Shipwreck Arcana, Caper, and Kodachi. However, for many of these, I found out that I ultimately like the art better than the game. But some of them are favorites; like Paper Tales.
Then, I thought I wanted to be a war gamer. I picked up Ottoman Sunset as a solo-only introduction to chits and simulation. As you can see, it didn't last. So no war gaming/historical simulations. (Although I'm still interested in at least trying a COIN.)
Then, it was on to heavy-interaction games and this is where I found my niche. It started with War of the Ring and trickled down to some of my favorites. Unmatched, Inis, Kemet, Sekigahara, and Undaunted. Games like The Ming Voyages and Freedom! are more obscure but just as great as some of the well known games. This genre also spilled over into auction/betting games: The Estates, Mint Julep and High Society being favorites.
The Games:
My favorite game is War of the Ring. This, for me, is the ultimate balance of satisfying game play, asymmetrical sides and thematic and tense moments of anticipation.
Some other favorites that I haven't mentioned yet are: Twister (since my friends and I are in our 30s, its hard to get people to play but I still love this), Seasons of Rice (fun little 'tile' laying game with great thematic ties to the designer's background), The Networks (just fun), Kodachi (love the push-your-luck) and 7 Wonders/Coup (I've been playing these since they came out and they never get old).
My Favorites in Alphabetical order:

Castell (extreme brain burn and fun theme)
The Estates (organized chaos)
High Society
Inis (wow this game is a roller coaster of emotion!)
Mint Julep (fun for two with some Kentucky Derby music)
Paper Tales
Unmatched
War of the Ring

Shelf of Opportunity: Bus and Raccoon Tycoon are the only unplayed games. Like most people, I've been playing a lot more 2-player games over the past few months. Sadly I don't know when they will be played. Also, I have pre-ordered Pax Pamir 2e, 18Chesapeake, Sprawlopolis, Food Chain Island, and Twilight Struggle: Red Sea.
Some notable games I've already owned and traded/sold: Scythe, Ghost Stories, One Deck Dungeon and Xia. I have learned that I do not actually care for co-ops despite my long history with them, I don't like dice allocation games, not a huge fan of worker placement, and I don't like sandbox games. I can't quite pin point why I didn't like Scythe; it was good, but not very interesting.
What I Would Change:
We've been playing Eldritch Horror for an age it feels; and, we have almost all of the expansions. So while that game is not one of my ultimate favorites, it probably won't be going anywhere. And while I did enjoy Raiders of the North Sea, it is up for trade. Some other games like Treasure Island and Atlantis Rising are great games to get people excited about the hobby. So while I don't foresee keeping them forever, I'll keep (and play) them until they've done their job. They could be replaced down the like with something like Captain Sonar. Dominion is a favorite of my partner's so while I don't love it, its definitely staying. (Thankfully, for me, a friend has all the expansions so there's no need for us to have them as well!)
Some games that I'm on the fence about: Obsession, The Shipwreck Arcana, and Nagaraja. I like them all just fine, but they don't blow me away. (Probably because I never win at Nagaraja. Never.)
At this point, my wish list is rather small. Yes, I am definitely going to be adding Cyclades. I'd like to buy Container, Tulip Bubble and The King's Dilemma if they are every in print again, too. I should probably check out Ra after all these years. It turns out that it might be exactly what I like!
Let me know about suggestions or questions!

It is time to be honest about the WNBA

The NBA is the parent company to the WNBA, since there is no WNBAdiscussion I figured this would be the place to speak openly and honestly about the WNBA from a 15 year NBA fan's perspective.
For those unfamiliar with the origins of the WNBA the league was founded 24 years ago by the NBA under commissioner David Stern. The goal of this league was to get more women interested in basketball and to give Top-level American talent a place to play on the home front.
Good intentions and for the first 5 years of the WNBA's existence things were looking up, the league expanded from 8 teams in 1996 to 16 teams to start the 2002 season. Average attendance started at roughly 9000 per game in 1996, spiked to 11k per game in 1998 and declined back to 9k per game in 2002.
Therein lies the first issue with the WNBA, after 2002 the per game attendance numbers started a slow decline, so much so that by time 2010 rolled around many teams were relocated to smaller arenas or simply folded. There are now 12 teams in the WNBA and only 3 of the founding teams are in the same city. (4 founding teams folded and 1 was relocated 3 times)
The viewership and per-game attendance numbers were always low, people blame lack of marketing but if we're being honest almost every single person knows the WNBA exists. I believe that the main is reason is the general sports watching market is simply uninterested in professional women's basketball. Think about it, how many people do you know who watch the WNBA? Who buy the jerseys? or even go to WNBA games? (Pre-corona) I'm willing to bet that the number is quite low.
The majority of sports consumers are male and the WNBA was created to lure females into sport consumption. On paper the idea makes sense right? 50% of people don't really watch sports and most are female, why not try to and acquire that market? The problem is in reality women consume so many other types of media that the WNBA simply does not compare to. Social Media sites, YouTube and even the Kardashians have higher rates of engagement and support than the WNBA ever will. Adam Silver even revealed during this interview that they are frustrated that women are not showing up to the games. He also revealed that the WNBA is supported predominantly by older men.
The next problem is the biggest issue with the WNBA, there is a huge lack of entertainment value when you actually watch a game. Don't get me wrong, these women are phenomenal players and are fundamentally very very good. The problem is that biology is a bit of a motherfucker. Women cannot compare to men in terms of strength, acceleration or verticality. Think about a player like Gary Harris. His vertical leaping ability and hangtime in this play is absurd. Gary Harris is a solid player but he is no superstar player like Lisa Leslie or Candace Parker or even Brittany Griner. Yet those are the only 3 players in the WNBA to have dunked ever and none of them could jump like Harris can.
When you watch an NBA game there is always a chance to see a moment that captures our imaginations or even exceed them. Think about this play JR Smith of all people did something that looked incredible. The entire stadium got on its feet, you probably have chills from watching that play. That is the power of the NBA.
The WNBA suffers from a lack of athleticism compared to the NBA and unless we make serious strides in genetic engineering that gap will simply never be closed.
Now we have to talk about money, a touchy subject because the WNBA does not share it's financial data with the public. Adam Silver also admitted that the WNBA receives 12 million a year from the NBA as a stipend yet the league itself still loses 20 million a year on average since its founding. Now all this would be scary enough to look at if I was a member of the WNBPA but the strange thing is all the coverage on the financials of the league are about the wage-gap between the two leagues. Granted initially the WNBPA said they just wanted the same percentage of BRI (basketball related income) as the men's league (men's league gets 50%). However if your league takes in roughly 60 million a year in income and loses 20 million a year, why would you be entitled to the same percentage? Your labor is not generating profits even close to what a healthy professional league should be.
Even if you triple the WNBA salary cap does it make the league more watchable? As per my earlier arguments I believe the answer is no.
Most WNBA players actually play overseas during the offseason in Eastern Europe and earn up to triple their WNBA income. Which begs the question why even come back? Just play in Europe make your money and rest during the regular WNBA season.
If you were a software engineer in Ohio and you got offered triple your salary to work in Poland or Turkey how seriously would you consider that job offer?
This isn't a manifesto trying to take down women's sports. I enjoy women's tennis, I loved watching the US women's soccer team run rampant over the world cup and even female golfers are starting to gain popularity which is fantastic!
This is specifically about how the WNBA is a league on the decline and it has failed to establish a foothold in the US. The market isn't there, the product is subpar, the business is bad and the players make significantly more money elsewhere.
I am curious to hear what you guys have to say about the WNBA, do you think it has a future? If so what can the league do to generate interest ?

Chinese Reaction on LGD vs UOL

Offseason Blueprint: the Los Angeles Lakers may win the title tonight, but their ambition won't end there

The NBA season is nearly over: be it 1, 2, or 3 more games left. With the offseason looming around the corner, we've been looking ahead with our OFFSEASON BLUEPRINT series. In each entry, we preview some big decisions and make some recommendations for plans of attack along the way.
Like the NBA, we've officially come to the end of the road and to our final team, the Los Angeles Lakers.
step one: know it will never be All Quiet on the Western Front
The Los Angeles Lakers have plenty of fans, but also plenty of people who enjoy watching them struggle (some even run their own sports websites.) It feels like they've been a punching bag for almost a decade now. Even when the team landed a coup and signed LeBron James, there were plenty of skeptics and haters picking at the roster and fanning the flames of front office tension. Even when the team followed that up with a trade for Anthony Davis, there were STILL doubters and haters camped at the gates.
At the end of the day, LeBron James and company only had one way to shut them up: win.
Now, no one can criticize them anymore. Whatever they did to get here -- it worked. LeBron James deserves a huge amount of credit for this presumptive title (no offense, Miami) but there's plenty to go around. Anthony Davis reminded the world that he's a friggin' beast. Frank Vogel did a great job getting the defense to play on a string, especially on the perimeter. The maligned bench with Rajon Rondo, Markieff Morris, and Kyle Kuzma even stepped up in a major way on the road to the Finals.
While the team may be drenched with champagne by the time you read this, they still won't be satisfied. LeBron James went back to Cleveland to win a title. He didn't go to L.A. and recruit Anthony Davis to win a title. He wants to win multiple titles. He may get his 4th ring after this year, which means he'll only be 2 away from catching Michael Jordan. If he can do that, then there won't be any doubt about his GOAT status. And honestly, it's possible. James still looks like a top 5 player (if not 1 overall), and Anthony Davis is in the heart of his prime. With a decent supporting cast around them, they're going to be in title contention for the next two or three years.
However, the Lakers can't get complacent. They deserved this title, but they didn't exactly beat Murderers' Row to get here. In fact, their playoff opponents had the weakest seed value and weakest W-L percentage of any title team since 2000. Next season may be tougher sledding. The L.A. Clippers could be a real threat with better coaching and better rotations. The Milwaukee Bucks could be a real threat with better health. Health permitting, the Brooklyn Nets have the star power and the depth to be a force themselves. It's going to be a dogfight next season. The Lakers still may be the top dogs in that fight, but they're going to have to scrape and claw to get that bone again.
step two: convince your free agents that It's a Wonderful Life
LeBron James is a champion for player empowerment, but that concept is going to put his L.A. Lakers in a precarious position this offseason. Some decisions with be out of their hands. The team has an inordinate amount of player options for next season, with 5 separate players having the right to opt "in" or "out" of their contracts. Let's take a look at each of those one individually.
The most important, of course, will be Anthony Davis. He has the choice whether to opt in to his $28.7M salary. It's weird to say, but $28.7M is a bargain. Davis is a 27-year-old superstar. He deserves the new max and then some. From the Lakers' perspective, the only question will be timing the extension in the best interest of Davis and the team as a whole. If they wait until next offseason to give him a full max, they may have some more wiggle room in salary to bring in extra free agents (in Offseason 2021, not Offseason 2020.) Perhaps they can convince AD to wait until then to accrue more years. At the same time, uncertainty isn't their friend. If the Lakers disappoint next season and LeBron James hits a wall (unlikely, but theoretically possible) then perhaps Davis doesn't want to stay tethered to this older roster for the long haul. Perhaps his relationship with James -- great now -- bleeds into resentment over time. Who the heck knows. Superstar pairings don't always end with "happily ever after." Even that remote concern would make me push for a max extension for AD ASAP.
The second most important player option will be Kentavious Caldwell-Pope. When the Lakers first signed them, it raised some eyebrows and potential tampering conspiracy theories. These days, his $8.5M player option looks like a good value. KCP shot well this year and played hard on defense. Effectively, he looked like the player that Danny Green was supposed to be. Your hope here is that the Lakers have built enough goodwill with KCP and his representatives to make this a friendly negotiation. Whether that means he opts in, or whether that means he signs a long-term deal, it's a relationship that needs to continue.
step three: but convince others to ride off like Shane
Conversely, there are a few player options that the team may try to talk players out of taking. Avery Bradley missed the bubble for personal reasons, but the Lakers' backcourt did just fine without him. At this stage in their careers, Alex Caruso is probably better at the 3+D guard role. Still, it's going to be up to Bradley whether to return or not. He can opt in to his $5.0M player option. The value is OK in the broadest sense, but perhaps the Lakers are rooting for him to test the market elsewhere. The Lakers should take a hard line here and not offer him extra years; if Bradley leaves to chase a long-term deal, so be it. If he opts in, he may be used as a potential trade chip.
Meanwhile, JaVale McGee has a $4.2M player option himself. McGee started 68/68 games in the regular season, but he didn't always look like their best option in the playoffs. As he ages (now 32), he'll continue to struggle with certain matchups. I don't think McGee can match that $4M anywhere else, so trying to convince him to opt out may be a losing proposition. Again, if McGee opts in, then the Lakers need to consider utilizing his salary as a potential trade piece.
Some of those decisions -- whether they want to keep Avery Bradley and JaVale McGee -- may hinge on some other free agents on the team. Backup PG Rajon Rondo has his own player option of $2.7M. All season long, I'd been talking about Rondo as a potential liability for the team. Instead, he justified some of that "Playoff Rondo" talk. Between Rondo and Caruso, you'd prefer Caruso getting extended minutes. Between Rondo and Bradley, it's more of a debate. Rondo deserves more than $2.7M, so I expect him to opt out. Presumably, he appreciates the role and limelight here in L.A. and wouldn't play hardball. If he's amenable to a short-term, reasonable deal, then you'd want to keep him in house. If his playoff hype spirals into outsized offers (anything over $6M or so) then you should thank him for his service and wish him well.
The Lakers should treat backup C Dwight Howard (an unrestricted free agent) in a similar way. Now 34, he's become a role player. Moreover, his role -- as the more traditional center -- is no longer a valuable one either. Still, he's pretty good at that role -- arguably better than JaVale McGee. The team shouldn't over-invest in this one-two punch though. If Howard wants to re-sign for a bargain basement deal, great. If he expects a mid-sized contract or an extra year, then he may be on the move again. For both Rondo and Howard, I'd stand firm on 1 year deals. However, the team can potentially add in "team option" years on top of that. The purpose would be less to entice them into staying and more to make them potential trade chips (in terms of salary matching) later on down the road.
The Lakers will have more free agents to discuss. Markieff Morris is an interesting one; he looked like a shell of himself after some injuries, but he showed signs of life in the postseason. If that's legit, then he could potentially be a good rotational player for the team (when they go "small" with AD at the 5.) The verdict from team doctors will be crucial to determining his value. Alternatively, vets like J.R. Smith and Dion Waiters don't appear to have any value at all. Fortunately, they don't have player options either.
step four: solve the mystery of The Third Man
All season long, we heard that the Lakers would need a third star to emerge if they were going to win the title. Kyle Kuzma never got there, but it didn't matter. Perhaps we've just defaulted into a more familiar era of the NBA. Shaq and Kobe won without another "star." Michael Jordan and Scottie Pippen won without another "star" (Dennis Rodman was more of an ultra role player.) With Kevin Durant removed from Golden State, perhaps the bar has been lowered back to reasonable heights for NBA title teams.
Still, the Lakers need to figure out who Kyle Kuzma is, and what his role should be. He averaged 16-6 as a rookie, but showed some signs of a "good stats / bad team" kind of player. That fear hasn't gone away. Since then, Kuzma's shot 30% and 32% from three over the following two years, and played poor defense overall. ESPN real plus/minus metric graded him as a -0.4 and -0.7 defensive impact, while box plus/minus had him at -1.2 and -1.0. That same BPM metric graded him below replacement level overall (-0.2 VORP).
Kuzma has played OK in these playoffs, but he hasn't had a major role. In fact, his minutes per game is down to 23.2 in the postseason so far, with 0 starts drawn. It's clear that Frank Vogel and the team don't believe he's the 3rd best player on the team. He may not even be the 4th or 5th best player.
You may ask: who cares? Kuzma isn't a world beater, but the Lakers beat the world anyway. Still, it's an important question hanging over their heads. Kuzma is under contract for one more year, and then will enter restricted free agency (at a time when they will be a lot of cap space out there.) Based on name value, he's going to get a decent contract.
If the Lakers don't believe he's worth decent money, it may be time to trade him now. (Realistically, the time to trade him was last offseason, but what can ya do.) Kuzma's $3.5M salary is easy to move, and the team can attach other contracts like McGee, Bradley, and Quinn Cook ($3M) to match a deal anywhere from the $3M-$15M range if need be.
What can the Lakers get for Kuzma on the open market? It's hard to tell. He's a polarizing name, so it may depend on whether their trade partner reads reddit or not. I'd call up Detroit and ask about Luke Kennard. If Houston's blowing it up, I'd ask about Robert Covington. If Minnesota's locked into Anthony Edwards at # 1, maybe they'd be open to trading Malik Beasley in a sign and trade. If you want to play dirty, you can tell Portland that Gary Trent Jr. (newest client of Klutch) is going to sign with the Lakers next season no matter what, so they may as well recoup something for him now. Fair? Ethical? Ehh. But hey, it's proven to be effective before.
step five: encourage others to hunt for the Treasure of the Sierra Madre
The Lakers don't have much cap space this offseason, but that's not a major problem. They're not going to have to list job openings on monster.com -- available players are going to flock to them. The most obvious reason to join the Lakers would be to chase rings. However, it goes deeper than that. There's not a lot of teams with cap space this offseason, but there are plenty with space next season.
If you're a free agent who's not getting a lot of attention, there's one great way to get attention: play with LeBron James and the Los Angeles Lakers. You can inflate your stock for next offseason, when hopefully you cash in.
If I ran the Lakers, my first call would be to a veteran like Darren Collison. Collison took the season off to pursue his faith, but reportedly he may return next year. If so, he'd be a dream fit for this Lakers' rotation. Collison can run the point when LeBron James rests, but he can also serve as a complementary spacer. The former UCLA standout has become a very reliable shooter -- hitting over 40% from deep in his last four seasons. He's undersized and sometimes outmatched on D, but the team has Alex Caruso ready to match up with bigger guards. Collison's skill set would merit $10+ million in a good market, but perhaps NBA teams are going to want to see him "prove it" after his extended absence. If that's the case, the Lakers can thank their lucky stars and Jehovah for delivering him into their laps.
Other veterans who may be drawn to the Lakers like a moth to the flame would include: the underrated E'Twaun Moore (NO) and likable vet Courtney Lee (DAL). Moe Harkless (NYK) could probably get more elsewhere, but he may decide to bet on himself and inflate his price for next season.
Since Anthony Davis still prefers playing PF, depth at center will be more important for the Lakers than other teams. As mentioned, JaVale McGee will probably be back (barring a trade) and Dwight Howard may be as well. If not, the team could try to recruit a player who wants to boost their stock. Nerlens Noel (OKC) could benefit from the spotlight like that; better yet, his agent happens to be some dude named Rich Paul.
Overall, the Lakers need to keep pushing and trying to improve, be it through free agency, through trades, or through the draft (where they have the # 28 pick.) This team may have been good enough to win the title, but as mentioned, one title isn't going to satisfy this star, this team, and this fan base. Hollywood's all about excess, and the goal will be to overindulge over the next few years.
other offseason blueprints
ATL, BKN, BOS, CHA, CHI, CLE, DAL, DEN, DET, HOU, IND, GS, LAC, MEM, MIA, MIL, MIN, NO, NYK, OKC, ORL, PHI, PHX, POR, SA, SAC, TOR, UTA, WAS

Elephants on the Field: Week 2

Elephants

Winning at fantasy means making predictions and acting on them prior to other players. To do that, you don't always have the privileges of hindsight and deduction. You will need foresight and inference. I hope to offer a some good if not somewhat inferential arguments for why some early moves on this weekly (if I have time) post.
Fantasy thinking is often over-obsessed with statistical correlations at the expense of firm causal understanding of what is happening on the field. The forest is often lost for the trees. A combination of understanding the game of football, recognizing interconnected changes that will influence teams, and eye testing the games themselves is the best antidote to the groupthink, herd-mentality of fantasy football expertism which, time and again, proves spotty at best in anticipating changes.
Last week I posted this as "Eye-tested Takes" but I realized that's not what I was aiming for. A variety of posters and services watch the whole game and give you maximally thorough takes on every snap. I won't offer much of an opinion on players/teams I don't watch. I'll always watch enough. However, a lot of what I'll make as the case for picking up (or dropping) a player will be based on obvious things that are happening that rankings-myosis may miss.
There's always an elephant in the room that no one want's to acknowledge. This post gives fantasy advice that accounts for the elephants on the field.

Things I'm right about (so far):

1. Rivers Noodle Arm = Colts Lean into Jonathon Taylor:

With the quality of that offensive line, Mack going down, and Rivers looking like shit, Jonathon Taylor may end-up being a top-5 back this year. TY Hilton and Parris Campbell are going to disappoint you.

A bunch of commenters disagreed, insisting Hines was the guy to get and Taylor as a top-5 was nuts. This is an instance of the eye-test making people too smart. Yes, Taylor netted 22 yards on 9 carries week 1. Who cares, he was great in college (larger sample size) and more importantly, Rivers looks SOOO spent that Taylor is the only obvious bell-cow RB for what is probably the best O-line in the league. You want that. Rivers threw it 25 times in week two (down from 44). Taylor had 26 carries, 2 receptions, 110 yards, and 1 touchdown. It was obvious what had to happen in Indy but fantasy groupthink herded everyone toward Hines.
If you had the audacity to ignore me on this (/s), the good news is there's still time. His trade value has skyrocketed on most charts but he's not quite valued as a top back yet. If you get the feel someone is under-valuing him, don't wait longer because his first 2 TD game is going to make him inaccessible in a trade. The Colts defense is also looking good enough to maintain a lead throughout a game, opening-up more run play calls. (Rivers sucking is going to do that all the time anyway).
And if you still don't believe me, watch his highlights from this week and you'll see why he could be such a focal point. He does a lot of things that coaches like to lean-into: great ball security, adds 2-3 yards to the end of runs, explosive speed when he has big holes.
2.Browns Offense is fine:

Don't panic about the Browns offense. Baker Mayfield looked like trash but the running offense actually looked pretty good at times...Stefanski is the guy you need to believe in... The biggest takeway from the game isn't the Browns offense is bad, its that the Ravens defense is great.

Both Browns running back scored multiple TD's and registered more than 150 yards each week 2. Baker continued to suck and it didn't matter. Stefanski's offense is good and his coaching career is a testament to his talent. All-Ivy-League Football Player. First coaching job was in the NFL. They wouldn't let him leave for 14 years because they knew he was a talent.
So don't run from Chubb or Hunt yet. And if you have them both, start them both and don't feel bad (unless you have a clearly better option like Zeke too...then probably favor starting Kareem Hunt the larger your ppr value, but its a tough call). The Browns are a perfect storm that make both startable: (a) Both Chubb and Hunt have top-5 rb talent and it comes across when you watch them on the field. With good combinations of strength and speed, each one is TD risk on every snap. (b) Sefanski divides snaps very well. Both are getting touches-a-plenty. They just signed they're "back-up" RB to a new contract (I mean, how often does that happen in the modern NFL?). KS also divides snaps by drive, unless a drive gets very long, so even if Chubb is doing well, he's going to give Kareem Hunt a whole drive. (c) starting both is fading Baker which is smart. The Browns are going to increasingly realize that their offense is more effective with Baker doing less. They may even move to Case Keenum (their back-up, legit didn't know that last week) and that's fine for Chubb/Hunt.
I wouldn't run from OBJ or Jarvis Landry yet either, though Baker's ineptitude has got to make you worry. Think about what Minnesota offenses did over the years with Diggs, Theilen, etc. Both OBJ and Landry are going to be solid bets for big-play TD's (like OBJ's last Thursday) here and there but likely not breaking the top-10. Still, the talent ceiling is high with both so a buy-low scenario where you get them in a trade could pay-off if you bet on Stefanski more than Mayfield.
3. Deandre Hopkins is the WR1

Deandre Hopkins will be the #1 fantasy receiver this year... And most importantly, the offensive situation in Arizona is the perfect storm for his fantasy situation. Kyler Murray is good, but he's not working his way through progressions yet.

Hopkins nabbed a TD but only had 9 targets this week. I'll admit that I only watched Kyler Murray's highlights so forgive me if its there and I didn't see it, buuuuut...He's not completing passes to 2nd and 3rd reads. Its one read then run. That's great for Hopkins' stats because the further into the season they get, the MORE Hopkins is going to be involved on plays designed to chuck it to him, no matter what. Hopkins is one of those guys that's always open, and Kyler is a smart player who knows that AND knows he's not good enough yet to start looking for someone else if Hopkins is "covered". That may hurt the Cardinals at some point. But Hopkins is getting fed this season.
And obviously, a rash of injuries at WR has made this look to be a better prediction. Hopkins is already a stud in that offense and he's still learning it. His stock is only going up from here.
Its true the WR's new offenses typically do poorly. A couple of reasons why that's not true of Hopkins: (a) he's physically the most gifted receiver in the league. Randy Moss kicked ass his first year with the Patriots. Some players are talented enough that it doesn't take time, as long as they're smart as hell like Randy Moss or (b) Hopkins is an intelligent dude. He negotiated his own contract and didn't fuck it up. He wants to be G.M. Big brained guy, he'll pick up quickly. You can see that on the field, he's constantly looking back at Kyler to make sure he did the right thing on each play. (c) HOF'er in the WR room: Fitz will get him up to speed fast.
Quick note about Kyler Murray: He's tearing it up. One encouraging thing that you might not see how little he's allowing himself to be tackled. As a fantasy owner, that's encouraging because it suggests he can sustain a high running floor and not get injured. And there's an added assurance that he's putting those slides for zero yards (for example) on tape because the coaches see that too and are more willing to call more of those plays down the stretch. Still, I wouldn't compare him to Lamar Jackson last season yet. Lamar Jackson was throwing TD's to his 4th and 5th read in week 1 against the Dolphins last season. Murray may hit a scheme ceiling where defenses, especially good ones, start to take away his 1 and 2 and contain his run game (though it is strong and he has good vision).

Things I was totally wrong about: zero things!

HA! Next section!

Things I'm not right about yet but pretty soon I will be:

1. Joe Burrow AJ Green is going to be good.

If you watch the game, you see Joe Burrow fitting the ball into tight windows in clutch situations. In fact, he wasn't finding a lot of open receivers, he was throwing the ball well/correctly into great coverage and making lemonade. Also, AJ Green is looking fully healthy and like his old self.

Well, AJ Green was targeted 13 times and caught...3 of those passes for 29 yards. So clearly, the chemistry between them was oversold by me last week. Still, 13 targets is encouraging and so is the Bengals inability to run the ball. No matter how much they try, they're wretched run-blocking always leaves them down late in games and in 3rd-and-forever situations. They just let a rookie throw it 61 times.
Another consideration is that Denzel Ward was covering Green all night:

A.J. Green has had an up-and-down career vs. the Browns. Thursday’s game was on the down side, and it had mostly to do with Denzel Ward.
Green had three catches for 29 yards. Overall, Ward broke up three passes against the Bengals. And according to Next Gen Stats, Ward was making life difficult for Joe Burrow all night, forcing eight tight window passes in 11 targets as the nearest defender.

Green is still pretty low on trade value charts but stands to have a huge upside as Burrow's primary target.
2. Rodgers is back.

...are there really any physical traits that are important to his game that would fade significantly at 36 year's old? I didn't see any missing zip off of his throws. I did see fucking darts getting tossed all over the field into tiny windows.

Aaron Jones is the #1 fantasy RB right now so obviously saying Rodgers is fully back is pre-mature. However, he is impressing with some very, very pretty darts.
Also, the elephant on the field for the Packers is that Aaron Rodgers is a player driven by ego. Not a knock on him, he's just a guy who needs mojo to play at his finest. Maybe it required the stimulation of an insulting draft pick to prod him back into his HOF form. I'm not saying Rodgers can be a top 3 QB this year with Jackson and Murray running so well, but 4 or 5 doesn't seem out of reach.
Rodgers is pff top-graded QB right now btw.

Fresh takes:

1.The Ravens are the best defense in the NFL.
The loss of Earl Thomas is doesn't matter as much as what has been gained with Patrick Queen and L.J. Fort. Queen is incredibly fast and explosive underneath, getting into the backfield and making big plays. And L.J. Fort (top rated pff lb right now) combine to give them rangey-coverage, tackling, and pass break-up ability over the middle they didn't have before which has further weaponized they're depth at CB (Humphrey, Peters, Smith). Peters specifically is a ball hawk that's found a great home in Baltimore; he couldn't scheme well anywhere else but Harbaugh has found a way to give him the freedom to ball hawk. Over the long haul, Harbaugh has maintained a great defense, regardless of departures/changes, for years and years. When he has this much talent, his defenses are typically dominant.
Be warry of starting iffy players against them at any position.
They're worth trading for, I think the turnovedef TD potential makes them worth it.
2. J.K. Dobbins will break-out out as the preferred option in the Ravens backfield.
Mark Ingram and Gus Edwards have both proven to be reliable RB's for the Raven offense. But Ingram is 30 with over 200 carries in 3 of the last 4 seasons. Edwards has been reliable, a home-grown UDFA. But at 238lbs and without elite speed, he's leaving many big runs on the table.
Dobbins didn't attend the combine. But ran a 4.44 40...in high school:

Dobbins posted a 4.44s 40-yard dash, 4.09s short shuttle and a 43.1-inch vertical jump as a high school senior at the event. There are also many reports that Dobbins squatted over 700 pounds.

He has power running balance and break-out speed that NONE of the other backs in Baltimore have. 4th rounder Justice Hill was their attempt of to develop that speed last year but didn't break out.
A couple of elephants make this one a good bet:
(a) Lamar's durability -- right now, he's taking a bunch of carries because he's the only one in their backfield that has the speed to break huge runs. If Dobbins can fill that role, Lamar Jackson can afford to take fewer chances and John Harbaugh can opt to only drop him back to pass 7 times in the second half when they're winning, like what happened in week 2.
(b) that defense -- Baltimore's defense is going to be great enough this year to take over games, making steady doses of run plays inevitable as they'll spend a lot of games up by 2 scores. Yes, they were up like that a lot last year but their only homerun hitter in the backfield was Lamar (see above, Justice Hill wasn't getting it done).
Here's an example: this is a shot from Gus Edwards' 22 yard scamper last week:

https://preview.redd.it/mhhhpzmkrxo51.png?width=1920&format=png&auto=webp&s=3cdf46ac4bcce3e503729f909c0e787f85459eb9
The Ravens offensive line is good at opening holes like this. While it didn't prove important in this game (BAL was up 30-16 at the time), each run like this where a more explosive player could scored is an opportunity cost for the people calling plays. And its not just points left behind, its points scored while Lamar is watching like a fan. Its points that could allow more aggressive defensive play calling. If you're a coach for Baltimore, you don't necessarily want Lamar to have a gaudy stat-line every week if you're winning. If he can throw 16 passes in a game and then sit-out the 4th quarter, that's ideal from the franchise's perspective (though not so much for Fantasy managers). Each Ingram/Edwards run that coulda been a touchdown means there's more time on the field for Lamar, larger portion of the game where they're not playing a dominant lead, and higher chance that they'll lose because points were left on the field. They need someone else hitting home runs in the running game.
Am I fading Lamar because of all of this? Not yet. Eye test = that guy is a singular talent. His throwing motion is smooth like Vick's, just a gifted, effortless release. He's also great at mostly avoiding contact (though all contact is bad contact if you're his coaches). Great decision maker too. Makes multiple reads on plays. Can't say enough about how great of player he is. Still, Baltimore is well put-together enough that they may be able to functionally win without him. So don't be surprised if, especially approaching the playoffs, Baltimore starts calling plays that don't involve as much Lamar. What's scary is that they may be a complete football team without him and he's the reigning MVP.
Finally, Dobbins had two carries last week. One was for a 44 yard gain where the blocking was good but not nearly as good as the image above. Even if the transition to him isn't fast, he could force the issue like Chubb did his rookie year, gaining 100 yards on 3 carries in a game.
No matter what, the Ravens will run by committee but there will come a point where the player to start out of the trio is Dobbins without a doubt.
3. Minshew is the truth and his team situation makes him a great fantasy player.
Minshew isn't the most talented QB in the league. But above all things, he is competitive and scrappy. The Jags are good but not great so he's going need a lot of that scrappy-iness (lol, just say that sentence out loud, you'll hear it). James Robinson is very good and they're going to lean on him a lot. But when the time for much needed yards and points, it seems like the Jags tag Gardner Minshew II's Id in at offensive coordinator. Minshew isn't likely going to be top-5 qb but he might make the top 10 and is likely easier to get than other top targets.
Part of the reason DJ Chark isn't getting the production folks hoped is because Minshew is effectively spreading the ball around. Good for the jags, bad for fantasy owners. I wouldn't panic.
One of his targets I picked-up to stash is Laviska Shenault Jr. He's getting a legit number of carries each week and averaging over 10 yards per reception. He's an interesting pick-up because he doubles as handcuffs for Robinson. Seems like his carry count could go up to 10ish no problem if the Jags lost Robinson. So pay attention to what position he's listed in your league, scoring rules about how carries count in ppr, etc. But he passes the eye test, very shifty and fast on the field.
4. Teams that are quickly turning into dumpster fires that you should across-the-board fade:
Jets
Gase is the worst. Never underestimate the ability of a shitty boss to ruin a workspace and make everyone fucking hate themselves, even though they're well compensated to play a game for a living. Listen, I know there's always gems on bad teams. But I have high blood pressure. So tuning into games with players I need to play well and watching the offense go 3-and-out 5 times in a row...I'm literally too old for that shit now so I try to stray-away from dumpster fire teams.
Vikings
Kubiak has got some big Stefanski shoes to fill and he's doing a bad job so far. I wouldn't panic about Dalvin Cook yet but another bad couple of weeks and I'd start shopping him. See the Browns thing above: Stefanski may have made the Vikings offense look better than it actually was for a decade. Combine that with the defense whose secondary would be better if they were scare crows and you're looking at a team that can't plan to run the ball for more than a quarter or 2.
Teams to be worried about:
Broncos
Whew, the injuries. They're basically just starting with new team. We'll see how things go.
Detroit
Matt Patricia may have lost this team. And coaches like him don't recover team faith/confidence well in a loss-spiral.
Texans
BoB is going to crash that plane into a mountain while we all watch. Poor Watson, just watching Deandre Hopkins ball-out. One thing you can still bet on for awhile out of the Texans offense; Bill O'Brien is ego- and career-invested in David Johnson doing great things. He'll role with him when he shouldn't to prove to everyone that he was right to trade Nuk. Its dumb. But he's dumb.

Fortune Favors The Bold (FFTB) Predictions

WARNING: What you're about to read is not necessarily good fantasy advice, but things for me to say "told you so" about a week from now. I take no responsibility for any money you lose (and all responsibility for the money you win). Still, Alexander the Great said, Fortune Favors the Bold.

JK Dobbins scores more fantasy points than CEH this week. (This prediction is backed-up by the time-honored tradition of spitting in one's hand and shaking on it so this shit is serious. Its also painful because I'm a Chiefs fan.)
Laviska Shenault scores a running and a receiving touchdown tonight.
Jonathon Taylor is the RB1 this week and its not close.
Danny Dimes throws 3 TD's this week against the 49ers.

I'm probably wrong about most of this shit but FORTUNE FAVORS THE BOLD!

Thanks for reading! If I continue to be kind mostly right and people find it a good read, I'll keep posting these each week. Good luck!

EDIT: Thanks for the awards and upvotes strangers! I'll bring the column back next week. Appreciate the comments too, thanks for the banter, shit-talk, and criticism. I'll be spittin in palms again soon.
EDIT AGAIN: Thanks again for the feedback. This is fun and I'm going to enjoy doing it again next week. Some of the comments have suggested that the post doesn't really go out on many limbs. I'll do that more in the future. I've also added an extra section with a few "FFTB predictions" for this week.

As a founder, it is hard to keep faith in Google.

Bold title, I know. I have been holding myself to not create this thread, because this is, by no means, a goodbye or departure one, neither a threat, but some feedback of someone who has put a lot of trust in the service and feels being let down. There is a lot that I'd like to address, so I broke it down in categories to make this wall of text, easier to read.

Lack of Features

Almost a year ago, Stadia launched without promised features: Stream Connect, Stat Share, Crowd Play. Basically, all the multiplayer and social features to make the platform appealing and tech, even cooler. Months forward, Family Sharing, Search Bar, Messages are still nowhere to be seen. No more countries have been announced despite people begging for it in every. social. media. post. that Stadia makes. The interest is there, yet Google is letting it loses momentum.

I know Google knows better. They are the professionals, but as a customer and as a founder, I feel obliged to come here and share my frustration and give some feedback, with the hopes to see it being addressed somehow. I strongly believe that, while there is criticism, there is interest, and when criticism is gone, so are your customers.

Lack of Diversity

Stadia needed games. They said to be tracking 120+ for this year alone. Well, they didn't lie, it's true. Some websites like Stadia Head and Stadia GamesDB! already point over 150 games, with more to come this year alone. That is good, but at the same time, truth has to be said: if Google really wants to expand and keep momentum, they can't keep the impression that they are a cool tech to play indie games at 4k. A toaster can run indie games. Why would someone pay (or, if it comes down to the free plan argument) get into a platform just to play indie games? Don't get me wrong, no hate for the indies. I love them and I can't express how happy I am whenever I see them popping by: I bet some indie developer(s) have put a lot of work, thinking process, and effort on it. But, still, for a service that has yet to prove why it exists and consolidate itself, indie games are not what you expect to see. This is also, by no means, an AAA x Indie discussion. Let the games come, but add diversity, which Stadia does lack in some way. As of this post, according to StadiaHead, Stadia games can be put in the following categories:

Action (104)
Adventure (61)
Arcade (16)
Children & Family (2)
Family (4)
Fighting (8)
Indie (47)
Massively Multiplayer (3)
Music or rhythm (3)
Party (5)
Puzzle (11)
Racing (9)
RPG (22)
Shooter (40)
Simulation (16)
Sports (19)
Strategy (14)

I, for one, have complained a lot about Stadia being all about shooters and indies before. Months have passed and the problem still the same. We lack diversity and good, solid titles. I wouldn't even mind the port of old games, to be fairly honest, besides, of course, day 1 launch for big and highly anticipated titles.

Lack of Bold Moves

Google, like it or not, the gaming market is cruel. Once gamers turn their back to you, they will hardly ever come back, no matter the move you make. You are enhancing the already bad PR you got by allowing yourself to be a joke and have Microsoft, in special, making moves time after time. In less than 6 months, Microsoft:

Announced EA pass alongside Xbox GamePass
Rolled out 3 month Discord try of Xbox GamePass
Bought ZeniMaxx
Announced a massive discount plan for Xbox acquisition
Launched xCloud for Android phones

Sony, on another hand, keeps killing the game with mindblowing games and very much anticipated sequels, which are either exclusives or timed ones, but still, will ensure people buy their consoles. They're also serving everything gamers do want on their connects. Heck, even Ubisoft had a much better and mindblowing connect than Stadia ever, eeeever had. What is happening in Stadia, for real? You guys got so many amazing, talented people. Really. What are you guys doing with these talents and why they are not helping to push the service beyond? When are you really going deep in your damn pockets and buying big studios? Just buy WB Games, for god's sake.

Lack of Communication (is there something to communicate?)

In the beginning of this community, we complained a lot about the lack of communication from Grace and Chris. Poor them, taking the blame on behalf of Google (it's a challenging job and I admire you both for that, just so you know). Months have passed and it feels like the communication has slown down and when there is something to be shared, they are not really... well, impressive. It's always the same people interacting in every social media. It's sad. When will we have something new and exciting to look forward to and give us hope?

Where is Stadia to be seen?

Stadia logo is barely seen on game announcements, let alone being present somehow in big game conventions and spots. Since it's launch, it feels like Google is trying to hide from Gamescon and other places. Why is that? You make announcements back and forth on ads and YouTube, but where the heck are you really in? Google, we need to see you. We need more from you.

I don't want Stadia to be a memory. I don't want Stadia to be another onLive. Google, please, it's about time to make bold moves. Enough is enough.

Reminder: The Lakers sucked for a lot longer than the Process Sixers

[Moore] When the Nuggets arrived in Orlando in mid-July, they did not have enough players to practice 5-on-5. Nikola Jokic had tested positive for COVID-19 and was in Serbia.

Writer: Matt Moore, better known as Hardwood Paroxysm @HPbasketball on Twitter

Full article: The Denver Nuggets Took the Hard Road. Now They’re in the Western Conference Finals.

In the NBA, the origin stories for amazing wins can usually be traced back to the summer. A free agency meeting. Players conspiring to play together. Late-night wine and dines.
This story began in a nondescript arena in an overlooked NBA city in the middle of January during a forgettable season.
The Denver Nuggets were trudging through what was ultimately a 46-win season that came up just short of the playoffs. They had just lost, at home, to the soon-to-be 24-win Atlanta Hawks.
“If this team will just focus, we can be great,” Nuggets head coach Michael Malone told me in the hallways of Pepsi Center. “I believe that. But they have to learn to focus.”
Two years later, inside a quarantine bubble during a global pandemic, playing playoff basketball in mid-September, the Denver Nuggets just became the first team to come back from down 3-1 twice in a single postseason, the latest ending the Los Angeles Clippers’ supposedly charmed run.
The Nuggets were the tougher team. They were the more focused team. And, frankly, the Nuggets were the better team.
In a league defined by the camera flash at the press conference, the Nuggets have reached the Western Conference Finals the hard way. Ground up, from the bottom.
The Clippers’ entire approach this season was to trust in their talent. There will be criticism for head coach Doc Rivers over the coming weeks. But there was no real way for him to build the trust and chemistry he needed to get past a Denver team that has it in spades.
How do you build chemistry when you’ve never hit adversity? How do you work through your weaknesses when you can’t practice because your best player’s whole mantra is load management?
Meanwhile, the Nuggets have kept this core together and it has hit so much adversity through the years … and that’s before we talk about the bubble.

When the Nuggets arrived in Orlando in mid-July, they did not have enough players to practice 5-on-5. Nikola Jokic had tested positive for COVID-19 and was in Serbia. Monte Morris, Gary Harris, Michael Porter Jr., Torrey Craig–four of the Nuggets’ nine-man rotation in Game 7 — were late for unspecified reasons.

That resulted in the team being so short-handed, but needing to practice and work, that the players in the bubble were going heavy minutes first in practice, and then in scrimmages when the other players had arrived but weren’t in condition. Everyone was overworked and exhausted.

Gary Harris went down in practice. Will Barton suffered knee soreness. Jamal Murray suffered an injury.

They were running Bol Bol serious minutes to start scrimmages. They started the playoffs without two starters and didn’t get Gary Harris back until Game 6 of the first round. Will Barton left the bubble to rehab his knee soreness and hasn’t returned.

But they went through it all together. They had suffered disappointing, and sometimes humiliating losses. They had ground through those midseason nights when teams don’t know if they’re good enough. All of that helped the Nuggets learn to trust one another.
In February, the Nuggets went to the Clippers for their second game of the season series. The Clippers blindsided them with a haymaker from the start. By the end of the game, a 132-103 laugher, the Clippers starters were yukking it up on the sideline.
I asked Paul Millsap later about what happened in that game, and after some prodding to get past the thick wall of cliches that Millsap provides to media, he said something that stuck with me.
“We just have to learn how to match the energy of what the other team brings,” Millsap said. “Sometimes in the regular season, you come in thinking it’s a regular-season game, just another of 82, and the other team has different intentions. We’ve done that. You have to be ready for it.”
What’s funny is that Denver still got caught in these playoffs. Their Game 3 effort vs. the Jazz was the worst I’ve ever seen from a playoff team. However, the upset of the Clippers was different. They were exhausted in Game 1 after the seven-game first round series. They lost a coin flip Game 3. They had a disastrous first quarter they couldn’t dig out of in Game 4.
The restrictions of the bubble. The emotional toll of the ongoing social unrest caused by police brutality. Being separated from family. Starting off without half the team. Basketball every two days for two months. Down 3-1, twice.
You don’t overcome that with a good press conference. You don’t overcome that with billboards, or TV market, or preseason expectations.
The Nuggets built their mental toughness and had to earn their spot in the Western Conference Finals the hard way.
President of Basketball Operations Tim Connelly took the hard way.
Connelly had built this Nuggets roster from ground-up. He and his staff, including now-Bulls-lead-exec Arturas Karnisovas had drafted a pudgy Serbian kid who was a passing phenom.
They had took a chance on Murray as a point guard with a scorer’s mentality. They had hired Malone and added supporting pieces, including Millsap, the team’s biggest free-agent signing in franchise history.
But this summer, after all that, home came calling. The Wizards reached out to interview Connelly for their open general manager position. Connelly is from Baltimore, and there were family health issues that meant being closer would be better.
For a man who always says he was just a scout at heart who got an opportunity, it was a chance to take a low-expectations job with a franchise he knew well after working a long time there.
Connelly chose to stay, to try and do the even harder thing: taking a good young team and figuring out how to make them a title contender. That job isn’t complete, the Nuggets will be underdogs to the Lakers (again) and there’s no chance LeBron James lets his off the gas the way the Clippers and Jazz did with a close-out opportunity.
There’s more to do, but Connelly has shown what faith in your own process gets you. No superstar swing-for-the-fences trades (though they tried a few). No miraculous free agent pulls.
“We don’t skip steps,” was the mantra. But that process was only supposed to take them so far, and scouts had asked repeatedly through the season if they really had enough.
“Can Jamal Murray really be a big-time guy?”
“Can you really count on Jokic?”
“Can Malone make enough adjustments?”
Sometimes change is necessary when it’s clear there isn’t a path forward. But the Nuggets are proof that sometimes the best thing you can do is to bet on your team, believe in the work they’ve put in, and learn from your failures instead of running from them.
The Nuggets have finally reached the Western Conference Finals, and they did it the hard way.

Gambling question - How do you respect money?

Offseason Blueprint: if the Boston Celtics turn their Big Hero 6 into the Magnificent Seven, they may be in the Finals themselves next year

The NBA Finals are underway, but there are now 28 teams sitting at home with nothing to do but twiddle their thumbs, watch LeBron, and wait for next season to start.
For their sake, we wanted to look ahead with the next edition of the OFFSEASON BLUEPRINT series. In each, we'll preview some big decisions and make some recommendations for plans of attack along the way. Today, we're looking at the Boston Celtics.
step one: don't flush money down the toilet
This is a difficult entry to write, because the Boston Celtics are a good team without any major problems hanging over their head. They were top 5 in W-L record, top 5 in point differential. They finished 4th in offense, 4th in defense. They advanced to the Conference Finals, knocking off a tough Toronto team along the way. If they rolled it back next season, they should be considered a top 5 team once again.
If you can nitpick, you can find reasons to quibble with some of their big splash free agency signings. Gordon Hayward got a huge contract and didn't sustain his All-Star level (for reasons out of his control.) Last offseason, the team gave out another huge contract to Kemba Walker ($32M + $34M + $36M + $38M player option), and they may be regretting that now. Walker never looked at 100% health and he got picked on some defensively in the playoffs. The idea of paying him that kind of money for three more seasons may be a little scary.
Of course, there's no use crying over spilled milk. Gordon Hayward will likely "opt in" to his $34M player option. Is that an overpay? Sure. Still, Hayward is still a solid starter with a balanced skill set. With another year removed from that injury, he may take another step up.
As for Walker, the hope is that he'll do the same with an offseason to recover and another year in the system. It can't be easy to go from the star of a franchise to the 2nd or 3rd option. In fact, most of Walker's offensive decline can be chalked up to a reduced role. His PPG dropped from 25.6 to 20.4, but that comes after his minutes dropped by 3.8 and his field goal attempts dropped by 4.4 per game. In terms of his efficiency, there wasn't a big difference. He actually scored a higher true shooting percentage (up from 56% to 58%). His offensive box plus/minus stayed near the same at + 4.9, which ranked as the highest on Boston's team.
Walker didn't look great in the bubble, but I'm going to chalk that up to some lingering injuries. He's still only 30 years old, so he hasn't gotten materially worse in a year. Will he get much worse by age 32? At 33? That's possible. But again, the Celtics have already committed to that. They can try to float trade packages for Walker to get off that contract, but I don't see teams beating down their door for it. If a team like the Knicks wants Walker, they may not offer anything back in return (aside from their willingness to take the contract.) Given Boston's situation as a team on the verge of the Finals, it doesn't make a lot of sense to take a step back like that just for cap relief.
step two: promote a temp to a full time desk
The Boston Celtics have a very strong "top six." You have the two rising stars in Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown. You have the two veterans in Kemba Walker and Gordon Hayward. You have the super role players in Marcus Smart and Daniel Theis. After that, it's more of a grab bag. No other player on the team averaged more than 20 minutes a night in the regular season, and no other player averaged more than 18 minutes a night in the postseason.
A team can make a deep run in the playoffs by going six strong, but it makes the margin of error narrower. When one of those players gets hurt -- like Gordon Hayward did this postseason -- it strains your depth. Beyond that, having an extra member of the full-time cast allows your players to take nights off and manage their minutes in anticipation of that deep playoff run. Hayward and Walker are both 30 now, so it's going to be important to keep them fresh.
Effectively, we want to take this "top six" and make it a "top seven." (Hence the post title.)
The top candidate for a promotion would be rookie PF Grant Williams. To me, Williams has more offensive potential than fellow forward Semi Ojeleye. After three good years at Tennessee, Williams dropped to # 22 in the draft based on the perception that he was more of a "college player" who couldn't keep up with NBA athletes. That didn't look to be the case so far for Williams (or for Cam Johnson in Phoenix, by the by.) Williams is a high-IQ player who can potentially play several different positions. He needs to keep increasing his range (25% from three), but he's been working toward that over his career. If he can take a leap next year, that'd be a major boon for the Celtics.
Fellow rookies Romeo Langford and Carsen Edwards may be slightly behind on the development curve, but it'd be great if they could get on the track toward the rotation eventually. Langford projects as a quality scorer who could potentially replace Gordon Hayward in the lineup in 1-2 years. Meanwhile, Edwards was a major shot maker in college who still has a lot of work to do. It may be too optimistic to think he could be a starter one day, but perhaps he could take the reserve role from Brad Wanamaker (a free agent.) If not, Tremont Waters (another rookie) may try to vie for that spot himself. It's not exactly Game of Thrones, but it's Game of Bench Seats. If nothing are ready for 15 or so minutes, then the team may need to re-sign Wanamaker or another filler vet.
In an ideal world, the Celtics would have faith that Robert Williams would be ready for an elevated role himself. They may lean more toward smallball bigs, but it's nice to have the option of a more traditional big at center as well. Enes Kanter has a player option for $5M that he may take -- he may not. He may try to finagle a longer-term deal somewhere. But if the team trusts the Time Lord, they can negotiate from a position of strength on that front.
No matter what happens, the Celtics will likely need their "7th man" to come from within. They have $120M committed on the cap for next season, so they're going to need to rely on internal improvements.
step three: bundle like the Big Short
If you thought the Boston Celtics had a lot of prospects in their "farm system" already, just wait. In this upcoming draft, they'll have pick # 14. And pick # 26. And pick # 30. And pick # 47.
Danny Ainge has always valued the draft and having a lot of picks, but we don't need this many. After all, we're trying to win the NBA title, not the G-League title.
The most obvious tactic would be bundling up these assets and trying to upgrade somehow. Like in The Big Short, perhaps a bunch of low-end assets can equal something of value. Still, the Celtics and their fans need to be reasonable here. They've tried bundling up lower draft picks in order to move for a while now, and always seem surprised when teams reject it (thinking of the potential Justise Winslow trade-up, primarily.) The truth is, these mid-to-late R1 picks aren't as valuable as many people seem to think. If the team packages all four of those picks together (14, 26, 30, 47) in order to move up, they may only land around pick # 9 or so. This isn't the NFL; NBA teams tend to value quality over quantity in the draft.
For a team that's already pretty strong and balanced, there may be a tendency to keep all their picks and just swing for a home run or two. The trouble is: there's only so much room on the roster. Consolidating (or pushing some of those picks back to future drafts) may be necessary.
If the Celtics can't move up and stay at # 14, they should have the option of getting another solid prospect. Some that may be intriguing to me personally would be Arizona SG/SF Josh Green ("Green"? karmic!), Villanova SF Saddiq Bey, or Maryland PF Jalen Smith. All three are quality prospects that project as rotational players in a year or two. A bigger home run swing may be Aleksej Pokusevski, the skilled 7'0" stretch big from Serbia. Pokusevski's narrow frame would make me nervous to bet on him if I was a GM on the ropes who needed to hit on my pick, but the Celtics have more freedom than that. They can take some chances if they want. Other upside plays would include PG/SG R.J. Hampton (U.S./New Zealand) and SF Jaden McDaniels (Washington).
With the # 26 pick, the Celtics could also get a decent prospect as well. You can never go wrong with a traditional 3+D prospect like SF Robert Woodard (Mississippi State). I also wouldn't rule out taking a traditional big like Vernon Carey (Duke). No one wants traditional scoring bigs anymore, but that's the reason that a player like that (who averaged 18-9 as a freshman) would slip down to # 24. In another era, the kid may be a top 10 pick. At the very least, he could replace the Enes Kanter role as a scoring sub.
step four: keep on truckin'
Hmm. Usually these offseason blueprints have 4 or 5 steps, but I'm running out of ideas here. As mentioned, things are running pretty smoothly for this franchise. I don't think Danny Ainge needs much help from reddit right now.
Still, I'll throw in some minor little notes that don't even merit a full section.
WHAT CAN BROWN DO FOR YOU? The Celtics have a lot of shot makers, but sometimes their offense can stall and fall into iso or hero ball. They need to keep pushing forward with ball movement and set plays if need be. One stat I noticed: Jaylen Brown is an exceptional shooter from the corner. He's at 43% from his career, and that swelled to 48% this season. Running action to get him more of those shots would be helpful.
REUNITE GERMANY. The team has a $5M option on center Daniel Theis that they'll definitely pick up. After that, Theis will be an unrestricted free agent. If I ran the team, I'd start talking to Theis about an extension. There may be a perception that the team can play any smallball center and save some money at the position, but I'd disagree. Theis is an underrated player that fits the modern NBA well. There may be a matchup here and there where he struggles, but overall he's a good starter and may need to be paid like one. He's still a little "under the radar," so perhaps they can get a team-friendly deal if they extend him now.
KEEP YOUR COACHING DEPTH STRONG. Celtics assistant coach Jay Larranaga is one of the better lieutenants in the game. He had been floated for some head coaching jobs in the past, but seems to have been lost in the shadows with all the major movement on the sidelines this year. Hopefully, for Boston's sake, Larranaga doesn't feel discouraged by that and doesn't start looking for head coaching opportunities elsewhere. His father is a good college coach, and he may decide to go that NCAA route eventually himself. The team should keep him well compensated so he doesn't feel the need to do that.
Overall, we're talking minor tweaks for this next season. The Celtics' chances of winning a title will hinge on how much they can improve -- both from their young stars and from their young bench.
other offseason blueprints
ATL, BKN, CHA, CHI, CLE, DAL, DEN, DET, HOU, IND, GS, LAC, LAL, MEM, MIA, MIL, MIN, NO, NYK, OKC, ORL, PHI, PHX, POR, SA, SAC, TOR, UTA, WAS

5 Strategies in Quant Trading Algorithms

Hey everyone, I am a former Wall Street trader and quant researcher. When I was preparing for my own interviews, I have noticed the lack of accurate information and so I will be providing my own perspectives. One common pattern I see is people building their own algorithm by blindly fitting statistical methods such as moving averages onto data.
I have published this elsewhere, but have copy pasted it entirely below for you to read to keep it in the spirit of the sub rules. Edit: Removed link.

What it was like trading on Wall Street

Right out of college, I began my trading career at an electronic hedge fund on Wall Street. Several friends pitched trading to me as being a more disciplined version of wallstreetbets that actually made money. After flopping several initial interviews, I was fortunate to land a job at a top-tier firm of the likes of Jane Street, SIG, Optiver and IMC.
On my first day, I was instantly hooked.
My primary role there was to be a market maker. To explain this, imagine that you are a merchant. Suppose you wanted to purchase a commodity such as an apple. You would need to locate an apple seller and agree on a fair price. Market makers are the middle-men that cuts out this interaction by being always willing to buy or sell at a given price.
In finance lingo, this is called providing liquidity to financial exchanges. At any given moment, you should be confident to liquidate your position for cash. To give a sense of scale, tens of trillions in dollars are processed through these firms every year.
My time trading has been one of the most transformative periods of my life. It not only taught me a lot of technical knowledge, but it also moulded me to be a self-starter, independent thinker, and hard worker. I strongly recommend anyone that loves problem solving to give trading a shot. You do not need a mathematics or finance background to get in.
The trading culture is analogous to professional sports. It is a zero sum game where there is a clear defined winner and loser — you either make or lose money. This means that both your compensation and job security is highly dependent on your performance. For those that are curious, the rough distribution of a trader’s compensation based on performance is a tenth of the annual NBA salary.
There is a mystique about trading in popular media due to the abstraction of complicated quantitative models. I will shed light on some of the fundamental principles rooted in all trading strategies, and how they might apply to you.

Arbitrage

One way traders make money is through an arbitrage or a risk free trade. Suppose you could buy an apple from Sam for $1, and then sell an apple to Megan at $3. A rational person would orchestrate both legs of these trades to gain $2 risk free.
Arbitrages are not only found in financial markets. The popular e-commerce strategy of drop-shipping is a form of arbitrage. Suppose you find a tripod selling on AliExpress at $10. You could list the same tripod on Amazon for $20. If someone buys from you, then you could simply purchase the tripod off AliExpress and take home a neat $10 profit.
The same could be applied to garage sales. If you find a baseball card for $2 that has a last sold price on EBay for $100, you have the potential to make $98. Of course this is not a perfect arbitrage as you face the risk of finding a buyer, but the upside makes this worthwhile.

Positive expected value bets

Another way traders make money is similar to the way a casino stacks the odds in their favour. Imagine you flip a fair coin. If it lands on heads you win $3, and if it lands on tails you lose $1. If you flip the coin only once, you may be unlucky and lose the dollar. However in the long run, you are expected to make a positive profit of $1 per coin flip. This is referred to as a positive expected value bet. Over the span of millions of transactions, you are almost guaranteed to make a profit.
This exact principle is why you should never gamble in casino games such as roulette. These games are all negative expected value bets, which guarantees you to lose money over the long run. Of course there are exceptions to this, such as poker or card counting in black jack.
The next time you walk into a casino, make a mental note to observe the ways it is designed to keep you there for as long as possible. Note the lack of windows and the maze like configurations. Even the free drinks and the cheap accommodation are all a farce to keep you there.

Relative Pricing

Relative pricing is a great strategy to use when there are two products that have clear causal relationships. Let us consider an apple and a carton of apple juice. Suppose there have a causal relationship where the carton is always $9 more expensive than the apple. The apple and the carton is currently trading at $1 and $10 respectively.
If the price of the apple goes up to $2, the price is not immediately reflected on the carton. There will always be a time lag. It is also important to note that there is no way we can determine if the apple is trading at fair value or if its overpriced. So how do we take advantage of this situation?
If we buy the carton for $10 and sell the apple for $2, we have essentially bought the ‘spread’ for $8. The spread is fairly valued at $9 due to the causal relationship, meaning we have made $1. The reason high frequency trading firms focus so much on latency in the nanoseconds is to be the first to scoop up these relative mispricing.
This is the backbone for delta one strategies. Common pairs that are traded against each other includes ETFs and their inverse counterpart, a particular stock against an ETF that contains the stock, or synthetic option structures.

Correlations

Correlations are mutual connections between two things. When they trend in the same direction they are said to have a positive correlation, and the vice versa is true for negative correlations. A popular example of positive correlation is the number of shark attacks with the number of ice-cream sales. It is important to note that shark attacks do not cause ice-cream sales.
Often times there are no intuitive reason for certain correlations, but they still work. The legendary Renaissance Technologies sifted through petabytes of historical data to find profitable signals. For instance, good morning weather in a city tended to predict an upward movement in its stock exchange. One could theoretically buy stock on the opening and sell at noon to make a profit.
One important piece of advice is to disregard any retail trader selling a course to you, claiming that they have a system. These are all scams. At best, these are bottom of the mill signals that are hardly profitable after transaction costs. It is also unlikely that you have the system latency, trading experience or research capabilities to do this on your own. It is possible, but very difficult.

Mean reversions

Another common strategy traders rely on is mean reversion trends. In the options world the primary focus is purchasing volatility when it is cheap compared to historical values, and vice versa. Buying options is essentially synonymous with buying volatility. Of course, it is not as simple as this so don’t go punting your savings on Robinhood using this strategy.
For most people, the most applicable mean reversion trend is interest rates. These tend to fluctuate up and down depending on if the central banks want to stimulate saving or spending. As global interest rates are next to zero or negative, it may be a good idea to lock in this low rate for your mortgages. Again, consult with a financial advisor before you do anything.

A "The Sims 4" Rant

Disclaimer: *Please don't take personal offense to anything on this post. At the end of the day, The Sims is a franchise, managed by MAXIS and owned by EA. It's an asset - the goal is to make money and attract new players. It employs a lot of people and moves lots of money. Their goal, more than pleasing the "fans" is to make money. This rant is not directed at the community - but at the ones behind the game. Also, this is my personal opinion - as an old and current fan who feels disappointed by something that once brought me great joy.*
(The thing that finally sparked this rant was a comment I read on a review of all the DLC and it read as follows: "Why are modders and custom content creators who work from their bedrooms with no budget making better content than a million dollar gaming company?")
I have been a Sims franchise player from a young age. When I got a stable job and found about The Sims 4, a couple of years ago, I jumped into it right away, even though the community had been settled long before I started playing this latest installment of the franchise.
Including the Base Game, obviously, I have 12 Stuff Packs, 8 Game Packs, and 9 Expansion Packs. In total, I have spent over $550 on this franchise. An amount that no sane person would or should spend in a game.
After things got busy at work I stopped playing The Sims 4 altogether - I used to put at least 8 hours into it every day. Having some distance between me and the game, I was able to notice that The Sims 4 is not a great game, at all. The graphics, mechanics, and even gameplay is extremely lousy, outdated, and, while particular to The Sims, not fun at all.
Even with a great PC, the game itself, without any mods whatsoever, looks and plays awful - and can be repetitive at times. If you play just so you can Create a Sim and go through their "life", or explore the (extremely limited) worlds, all you're really doing is roleplaying scenarios in your head - the game itself does not give you enough freedom or in-game mechanics to let you explore all the scenarios you cook up in your mind. So what can you do? Mods. Yes. Mods to expand on traits, mods to give Sims more personality, mods to fix weird game mechanics, and so on.
Let's say you only play The Sims for the building. There are so many limitations! You can only build with the blocks the game gives you. You have to resort to "glitches" or exploits to build how you want to build. And even then, it never quite looks how you want. So what do you do? Mods.
In all honesty, The Sims, by itself, is NOT worth the price it's sold at. The community, especially the custom content creators' community, is what gives LIFE to The Sims. Hard to believe? Just look at the "worlds" and EA builds that come with the Base Game or any Expansion/Game Pack. I've lost count on how many YT videos exist roasting the EA builds for obvious mistakes and just the ugliness of it all - on DLC they sell for upwards of $19.99!
Without mods, The Sims 4 is a bland, honestly ugly, limited game. So yes, I did spend countless hours collecting and organizing my mods folder just so I could get something similar to what I wanted from The Sims.
But what's the general response to mods? They're on a "use-at-your-own-risk" basis, modded creations won't show on the EA Gallery, and they are generally looked down upon by many in the community.
And I haven't even touched on the question of the skin tones, the fact that male frames and female frames on CaS are not interchangeable - meaning clothes/haimakeup meant for one type of Sim will look awful on the other.
Or the fact that every single Expansion Pack plays the same? A couple of general tasks to complete in a predetermined amount of time, a non-existent feeling of completion OR reward by finishing those tasks? I mean, Strangerville is pretty much a choose-your-own-adventure without any of the elements that make that a great genre.
And the load screens between everything! Leave your house to visit your neighbor's house and you get a loading screen.
Oh! And the general careers and school time - the Sims go away, time speeds up, and you some times have to click on some quick-event prompts. Yay? Fun?
I know this might come as just bashing on The Sims - but trust me - this game has brought me much joy, especially when I was younger. I could just immerse myself in The Sims and forget about everything else for hours.
The thing is, I usually did that via mods. Not just by playing the standard game. And when I look at other similar games out there, especially "indie" games that try to do what The Sims WISHED they could, it makes me even more so disappointed in this franchise. They've settled and stopped betting on creativity or improving.
TL;DR - As is, The Sims 4 is not worth the money it's sold at - free mods make it - even though they often break it. The current DLC system is a shameless cash grab that gives players next to nothing playability wise. The team behind it does not listen to the community as they often advertise - more diversity and inclusivity has been an ever-increasing issue raised by the community, as well as long-standing requested features like cars, and interactable babies, and all we've gotten so far is a knitting pack and a Star Wars pack???

How I applied Buffet's strategies to my own portfolio, +70% networth, beat SP500 by 40%

I believe I did pretty well in the market this year. My networth increased ~65% since its lowest point in March, ~350k to 620k. 20k from the car I bought in March. I rolled over a 401k and it messed up Mint's reporting, hence the spike from Jul -> Aug.
I beat the SP500 by 40% in my YOLO account, my FAANG account went from 180->300
I did this by following some basic investing principles, buying and holding for the most part, being patient, and only investing in areas which I have expertise in.
I did not buy into the TSLA hype, nor do I play options, nor do I play crypto.

High level advice:

I picked the 7 I agree with.

Invest in what you know…and nothing more.
Never compromise on business quality
When you buy a stock, plan to hold it forever
Diversification can be dangerous
Most news is noise, not news (don't read articles about investing)
The best moves are usually boring (buy and hold)
Only listen to those you know and trust

I firmly believe that anyone who follows those concepts, they will find success in investing.

General mindset:

Keep emotions out of the market
Don't bother timing the market. Don't get ruled by FOMO.
Understand that for some stocks, you can't really average cost down. You will have to stomach buying the stock at a higher entry point. My refusal to average up early on caused me to miss out on a lot of gains.
Understand the difference between trading, investing, and gambling.
Have an exit strategy (stop losses would have helped me a lot in March, I now learned from my expensive mistake)
Be greedy-- not TOO greedy. If a stock pops 10%, I will sell half to lock in profits. It's super common to see a lot of companies pop and the next day dip a bit due to sell off. Perfect time to grab more on the dip. This is obviously impossible to time, which is why I only sell half.

Application:

I was very specific in the types of companies I would choose to invest in within tech. I decided to follow my strengths. As a data engineer, I'm very intimate with cloud technologies, and I think I generally have pretty sharp business acumen and good strategic direction.
As a result, my day to day work had me using a ton of technologies in the cloud space. I've used Splunk, NewRelic, Twilio, AWS, GCP, Hortonworks/Cloudera, Oracle, Tableau, Datadog, Sendgrid (bought by Twilio), Dropbox/box, Slack, Salesforce, Marketo, Databricks, Snowflake, HP Vertica, just to name a few. I was familiar with CDN services like Fastly and Cloudflare because sometimes, I worked with the DevOps and IT guys.
Based on industry hearsay, day to day work, eventually, I got a good "feel" of what technologies were widely adopted, easy to use, and had a good reputation in the industry. Similarly, I also got a feel for what tech were being considered 'dated' or not widely used (HP, Oracle, Cloudera, Dropbox, Box).
I tend to shy away from companies that I don't understand. In the past, most times I've done that-- I got burned. My biggest losers this year was betting on $NAT and $JMNA (10k total loss). After learning from those mistakes, I decided to only focus on investing in companies that either I or my peers have intimate first hand experience with using. Because of this rationale, the majority of stocks in my portfolio are products which I believe in, I thoroughly enjoy using, and I would recommend to my friends, family, and colleagues.
Post COVID, due to the shift to remote work and increase in online shopping I decided to double down on tech. I already knew that eCommerce was the next big thing. I made very early investments into SHOP and Amazon in 2017 for that reason.
My hypothesis was that post-COVID, the shift on increased online activity, remote work, and eCommerce would mean that companies which build tools to support increased online activity should also increase. I decided to choose three sectors within tech to narrow down-- these were three sectors that I had a good understanding of, due to the nature of my work and personal habits.

eCommerce + AdTech
IT/DevOps (increased online activity means higher need for infra)
FinTech (increased shopping activity means more transactions)

These are the points I consider before I consider jumping into a stock:

Do I feel good about using the company? Do I believe in the company's vision?
Where do I see this company in 5 years? 10 years? Do I see my potential children being around to use these companies?
What does YoY, QoQ growth look like for this company?
Is/Will this product be a core part of how businesses or people operate?
Who are their customers and target demographic?
(SaaS) Customer testimonials, white papers, case studies. If it's for a technology, I'm going to want to read a paper or use case.

In March, I took what I believe to be an "educated gamble". When the market crashed, I liquefied most of my non tech assets and reinvested them into tech. Some of the holdings I already had, some holdings were newly purchased.
EDIT ^{^{^}} this isn't called timing the market you /wsb imbeciles. Timing the market would be trying to figure out when to PULL OUT during ATH and then buying the dip. I SOLD at the lowest point, and I with the cash I sold AT A LOSS, I reinvested that cash and doubled down into tech. If I sold in Feb, and bought back in March, that would be calling timing the market. What I am doing is called REINVESTING/REBALANCING... not timing the market.
I have 50% of my networth in AMZN, MSFT, AAPL, GOOG, FB, NFLX, and the rest in individual securities/mutual funds. I have 3 shares of TSLA that I got in @1.5.
Here are the non FAANGs I chose.

$SQ. I had already been invested in SQ since 2016. I made several bad trades, holding when it first blew past 90 until I sold it at 70... bought in again last year at 60s, after noticing that more and more B&M stores were getting rid of their clunky POS systems and replacing it with Square's physical readers. After COVID, I noticed a lot of pop up vendors, restaurants doing take out. A Square reader made transactions very easy to make post-COVID.
$ATVI. Call of Duty and Candy Crush print money for them. I've been a Blizzard fanboy since I was a kid, so I have to keep this just out of principle.
$SHOP. They turned a profit this year, and I think there is still a lot more room to grow. It's become somewhat of a household name. I've met quite a few people who mentioned that they have a Shopify site set up to do their side hustle. I've tried the product myself, and can definitely attest that it's pretty easy to get an online shop up and running within a day. I 5.5xed my return here.
$BIGC. I bought into this shortly after IPO. I'm very excited to see an American Shopify. BigC focuses on enterprise customers right now, and Shopify independent merchants, so I don't see them directly competing. I'm self aware this is essentially a gamble. I got in at 90, sold at 140, and added more in 120s. I def got lucky here... it's not common for IPOs to pop so suddenly. I honestly wasn't expecting it to pop so soon.
$OKTA. Best in class SSO tool. Amazing tool that keeps tracks of all of my sign-ons at work.
$DDOG. Great monitoring tool. Widely adopted and good recommendations throughout the industry. Always had a nice looking booth at GoogleNext.
$ZM. Zoom was the only video conf tool at work which I had a good time using. Adoption had blown up pre-COVID already in the tech world, and post-COVID, they somehow became a noun. "Zoom parties" and "Zoom dates" somehow became a thing interwoven into peoples' day to day lives.
$TWLO. Twilio sells APIs which allow applications to send messages like text, voice, and video chat. For example, when DoorDash sends you a text at 1 AM reminding you that your bad decision has arrived, that text is powered by Twilio. In March, New York announced that they were going to use Twilio to send SMS notifs for COVID contact tracing.
$NET/$FSTY. These two two seem like the ones best poised for growth in the CDN space. This is based off of industry exposure and chatting with people who work in DevOps.
$DOCU. people aren't going to office to sign stuff, super easy to use, I like their product.
$WMT. eComm, streaming, and a very substantial engineering investment makes me think they have room to grow. Also I really need to diversify.
$COST. When is the last time you heard someone say "Man I hate going to Costco and paying $1.50 for a hotdog and soda?" Diversification. Also cheap hotdogs.
$NVDA/AMD. GPUs are the present and the future. Not only are they used for video games, but Machine Learning now uses GPU instead of CPU to do compute (Tensorflow for example). Crypto is still a thing as well, and there will always been a constant need for GPUs.

Mutual funds/ETFs 1. $FSCSX. MF which focuses on FinTech.

$VTSAX Pretty much moves with the SP500.
$WCLD. Holdings include Salesforce, Workday, Zuora, Atlassian, Okta, New Relic, Fastly...

Titanvest: I was an early access user, and I was able to secure 0% fees for my accout. 36% gains so far. I like them, because their portfolio happens to include shares of tech giants that I either don't have individual stocks for or my stake is low (CRM, PPYL). It nicely complements my existing portfolio.

Some things I do that that are against the grain:

Not really diversified. 80% is in tech. They are in very different sectors of tech, but the truth is, when tech falls, all of these companies fall. I'm obviously long tech and I do not believe that tech will fall anytime soon. What about the dot com bubble? There wasn't a single dot com company that was integral in our lives. The internet was in its infancy then. Techonology is now such an interwoven part of our lives and I see companies like Apple, Amazon, Google to be sticking around for several generations.
I don't read investing articles. I think people who write articles about a stock all have ulterior motives-- to pump or to dump. Case in point-- Citron Research spent years writing articles telling people how SHOP was overvalued. Why did they do that? Because they were shorters at the time. I turned 5k into 27k, because I held on to most of my SHOP shares.
I don't take much value from balance sheets, other than net loss, income, YoY growth. Instead, I use my business acumen to try to pick up on info that isn't super apparent from Google. For example, one thing I always do is that I look at the career page to see how the business is growing. Increase on marketing/sales/implementation engineers is typically a solid sign that a company is preparing headcount to take new deals in the upcoming quarters. I look at the product road map, supported integrations, and customer base.

One example was how I applied the above principle was to WalMart. In 2018 I noticed that I was getting targeted by a lot of Data engineering job listing for WalMartLabs-- WarMart's tech division. The role was to build out a big data pipeline to support their eCommerce platform. WalMart's online store released in Q3 of 2019. Post COVID, I used their online store and it was a seamless experience. They even offer a 5% cash back card like Amazon. They reported strong Q4 sales last year, and they did very well post COVID. Why did I choose to invest in $WMT? Because I believe that Wal-Mart has room to grow for their online platform.
Lastly... remember that wealth isn't accrued over time. It takes years to build. The quickest way to increase your wealth is by investing in yourself-- your career and earning potential. The sooner my income increased, the quicker I had more capital to buy into stocks.
Also, if you've gotten this far, the point of my post isn't to say that you should invest into tech. The message I'm trying to get across is-- when picking companies, pick companies in fields or verticals you have good knowledge in. Heed Buffet's advice to only pick companies you believe in and understand. Play to your strengths, don't mindless toss money based on one person's posts on Reddit-- always do your own due diligence. Use DD as a guide and use personal research and experience to drive your decision.

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eGaming Jobs, igaming, online gambling and casino

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Betting and Gaming jobs in the UK and Europe

Bet it’s REAL groovy, K.K... 🍃 (pls don’t @ me about the time travel my job closed the same day the game come out and I have nothing else to do)

[WP] During the godly beings Halloween party, a game of truth or dare orchestrated by Loki led to a bet between Santa and Satan. The bet? Who can last longer in a job exchange.

During the godly beings Halloween party, a game of truth or dare orchestrated by Loki led to a bet between Santa and Satan. The bet? Who can last longer in a job exchange.

[WP] During the godly beings Halloween party, a game of truth or dare orchestrated by Loki led to a bet between Santa and Satan. The bet? Who can last longer in a job exchange.

The REAL Greatest Short Burn of the Century

My experience with the recent ban (Important if you are in the European Union and got banned)

CD Projekt Red breaks their promise on not putting their developers on crunch for Cyberpunk 2077, r/pcgaming discusses whether the employees are being exploited or are being babies.

From Iron in beta to double Diamond this week - what I've learned... sorry, no hype fragmovie

Preface

History

General advice

Macromechanics

Micromechanics

[COMC] Can we meet on a map? Or perhaps bluff over an auction? Count me in!

It is time to be honest about the WNBA

Chinese Reaction on LGD vs UOL

Offseason Blueprint: the Los Angeles Lakers may win the title tonight, but their ambition won't end there

Elephants on the Field: Week 2

Elephants

Things I'm right about (so far):

Things I was totally wrong about: zero things!

Things I'm not right about yet but pretty soon I will be:

Fresh takes:

Fortune Favors The Bold (FFTB) Predictions

As a founder, it is hard to keep faith in Google.

Lack of Features

Lack of Diversity

Lack of Bold Moves

Lack of Communication (is there something to communicate?)

Where is Stadia to be seen?

Reminder: The Lakers sucked for a lot longer than the Process Sixers

[Moore] When the Nuggets arrived in Orlando in mid-July, they did not have enough players to practice 5-on-5. Nikola Jokic had tested positive for COVID-19 and was in Serbia.

Writer: Matt Moore, better known as Hardwood Paroxysm @HPbasketball on Twitter

Full article: The Denver Nuggets Took the Hard Road. Now They’re in the Western Conference Finals.

That resulted in the team being so short-handed, but needing to practice and work, that the players in the bubble were going heavy minutes first in practice, and then in scrimmages when the other players had arrived but weren’t in condition. Everyone was overworked and exhausted.

Gary Harris went down in practice. Will Barton suffered knee soreness. Jamal Murray suffered an injury.

They were running Bol Bol serious minutes to start scrimmages. They started the playoffs without two starters and didn’t get Gary Harris back until Game 6 of the first round. Will Barton left the bubble to rehab his knee soreness and hasn’t returned.

Gambling question - How do you respect money?

Offseason Blueprint: if the Boston Celtics turn their Big Hero 6 into the Magnificent Seven, they may be in the Finals themselves next year

5 Strategies in Quant Trading Algorithms

What it was like trading on Wall Street

Arbitrage

Positive expected value bets

Relative Pricing

Correlations

Mean reversions

A "The Sims 4" Rant

How I applied Buffet's strategies to my own portfolio, +70% networth, beat SP500 by 40%

High level advice:

General mindset:

Application:

Some things I do that that are against the grain:

eGaming Jobs, igaming, online gambling and casino