Sharing my library. It's a mixed bag, from some truly atrocious quality to some hi-res titles. I don't have a huge online storage as I'll just be using the free Mega account (It just went down to 15GB from 50GB). Please comment on any specific titles you'd like me to upload and I'll reply with the link once uploaded. -If there's no quality specified in [], then it's 16/44.1 -Sample rate is only listed when it's higher than 44.1/48 -[16 or 24] is 16-bit or 24-bit -[When this # is 3 digits] Indicates MP3 and the number is kbps -[96] MP3 at 96kbps, stay away from these. I told you it's a mixed bag lol 2 Chainz - Based on a T.R.U. Story 2 Pac - 2Pacalypse Now, Strictly 4 My NIGGAZ, Me Against the World, All Eyez on Me, Americaz Most Wanted 8 Mile Original Soundtrack 8Ball - Lost 21 Savage - Slaughter King [320], Savage Mode, Savage Mode II [24] 50 Cent - Get Rich or Die Tryin', The Massacre 112 - 112, Room 112 A Boogie wit da Hoodie - The Bigger Artist [256], Artist 2.0 [24] A Great Big World - Is There Anybody Out There? [320] A$AP Ferg - Furious Ferg A$AP Rocky - Live.Love. ASAP, Long. Live. ASAP Aaryan Shah - In the Making, The Arrival: Part II [24] Ace Hood [320] - Studio Album: Gutta, Ruthless, Blood Sweat and Tears, Trials & Tribulations Mixtape: Ace Won't Fold, All Bets on Ace, Final Warning, Street Certified, The Preview, I Do It.. For the Sport, The Statement, Body Bag Vol.1, Sex Chronicles, The Statement 2, Body Bag Vol.2, Starvation, Starvation II ACG: .hack_Sign OST 1+2 [320] Castlevania - Akumajo Dracula Best Music Collections Box Curse of Darkness - Prelude of Revenge Harmony of Despair Lament of Innocence Lament of Innocence Limited Edition Music Sampler Lords of Shadow - Mirror of Fate Symphony of the Night Death Note OST 1+2+3 [320] Detective Conan OST 3 Final Fantasy Symphonic Suite Final Fantasy VII OST Final Fantasy VII Reunion Tracks Final Fantasy VII Remake Final Fantasy VIII Final Fantasy X Gensomaden Saiyuki - OST, Single Collection Guilty Gear X - Heavy Rock Tracks, Rising Force of Gear Image Vocal Tracks Guilty Gear XX OST Guilty Gear XX - Sound Alive/A.S.H. Hikaru no Go - Theme Song Selection Howl's Moving Castle - OST, Symphony Suite [320] Hunter x Hunter - OST 1+2+3, The Last Mission Joe Hisaishi - Dream Songs/The Essential Joe Hisaishi Koudelka Legend of Mana [320] Madlax My-HiME - OST 1+2 Neon Genesis Evangelion - Single Collection NieR:Automata Noir - OST 1+2+3 Ragnarok Online Complete Soundtrack Rurouni Kenshin - OST 1 [320], OST 2+3+4, CD BOX [320], Director's Collection, Premium Collection, Songs, The Best Theme Collection Shaman King - Comics Image Album, Melody of the Spirits, Osorezan Revoir ~au revoir~, Osorezan Revoir ~prologue to shaman~, Single Vocal Album, Vocal on Parade!! Slayers TRY Treasure BGM Spirited Away [320] The Legend of Zelda - Majora's Mask, Ocarina of Time Tsubasa Chronicle - OST 1+2+3+4 Yu-Gi-Oh! Theme Song Single Collection Z.O.E. - Zone of the Enders, Anubis: Zone of the Enders Zenki - Character Song Collection 2, OST 2 Raigou Shourin!! 軒轅劍三外傳:天之痕 - 三個人的時光 風色幻想 - 1+SP+2+3+4+5 Adam Ben Ezra - Discography Adam Lambert - Trespassing Adam Lopez - The Popera, Showstopper, Till the End of Time Adele - 21 Afek-T - Les brumes Agnes Obel - Philharmonics, Aventine, Citizen of Glass [24], Myopia [24] Akon - Trouble Alabama Shakes - Boys & Girls [320], Sound & Color [192~320] Alejandro Fernández - de noche - clasicos a mi manera, Confidencias [320] Alicia Keys - Songs in A Minor Aloe Blacc - Shine Through, Good Things, Lift Your Spirit Amber Run - 5am [320], For a Moment I Was Lost [320] Amy Winehouse - Frank [160~320], Back to Black [196~246], Lioness: Hidden Treasures [320] Andrea Bocelli - Romanza, Verdi Angra - Discography (1992 - 2010)[160~231] Anita Baker - Rhythm of Love Anthony Ramos - The Freedom EP, The Good & The Bad Ariana Grande - My Everything [24], Dangerous Woman [24], Sweetener [320], Thank U, Next [24] Arvo Part - Various works Aurora - Discography (2015-2019)[24, except Infections of a Different Kind which is in 320] AZ - Do or Die Az Yet - Az Yet [320] Babyface - The Day Bad Meets Evil - Hell: The Sequel Ballet Class Music [320] Banks - Discography (2014-2019)[16~24] Basso Profondo from Old Russia Belly [320] - Another Day in Paradise, Inzombia, Mumble Rap Beyoncé - 4, Beyoncé, Lemonade Bilal - 1st Born Second Bill Evans Trio [320] - Explorations, Sunday at the Village Vanguard, Waltz for Debby Bill Withers - Lovely Day: The Very Best of Bill Withers Billie Eilish - Discography Birdy - Discography [320] Bishop Briggs - EP [320], Church of Scars, Champions [24] Black Hill - Discography (2014-2019)[16~24]
Stvannyr - Secrets of the runes
Black Panther - Original Score [24], The Album [24], Wakanda Remixed [16] Blindspotting - The Collins EP [320], The Miles EP [320] Bloom - Sinses [320] Blue - All Rise Bob Marley & The Wailers - Legend Bone Thugs-n-Harmony - Creepin on ah Come Up EP Brent Faiyaz - A.M. Paradox EP, Sonder Son, Lost EP, Fuck the World Bruno Mars - Discography (2010-2016) Busta Rhymes - The Coming Call Me By Your Name OST Camila Cabello - Romance Cardi B - Gangsta Bitch Music Vol.1 [128], UnderEstimated - The Tour Album [128], GBMV2 [128], Invasion of Privacy Carolina Eyck [320] - Theremin, Waves Case - Open Letter Céline Dion - All the Way.. A Decade of Song, Courage Charlotte Cardin - Big Boy EP, Main Girl EP Charlotte Cardinale - Florescentia Chase Holfelder - Major to Minor (Vol. 1) Chet Faker - Thinking in Textures, Built on Glass [320], Lockjaw Childish Gambino - Camp, Because the Internet, 3.15.20 Chingy - Jackpot Chloe x Halle [24] - Sugar Symphony EP, The Kids Are Alright, Ungodly Hour Choral: Aliqua, Chor Leoni Men's Choir Discography, Christmas with The Princeton Singers, The Manitou Singers - Repertoire for Women's Voices, Vol. 2 Christina Aguilera - Christina Aguilera [320], Stripped, Back to Basics, Bionic, Lotus [320], Liberation [24] Cirque du Soleil - Discography (1992-2015)[128~320, 3 albums in 16] Clann - Kin Fables, Seelie Classical: 100 Great Symphonies Bach - Selected Organ Works, The Famous Cantatas, The Six Motets Beethoven - Complete String Quartets, Piano Sonata No.8 op.13 'Pathetique', Piano Sonata No.14 op.27 'Moonlight', Piano Sonata No.23 op.57 'Appassionata' Brahms - Brahms on Life and Love, Requiem, Symphony No.1 Bruckner - Te Deum Chopin Complete Piano Music [192] Dvořák - Mass in D, Requiem, Symphony No.7+8+9 Fauré - Requiem Glazunov - Violin Concerto in Am op.82 Grieg - Piano Concerto op.16 in Am Liszt - 10 Hungarian Rhapsodies, Piano Works Mendelssohn - Symphony No.4, Violin Concerto in Em Mozart - Clarinet Concerto in A, Concerto in C for Flute, Harp, Orchestra, Horn Concerto No.4, Piano Concerto No.20, Piano Concerto No.21, Requiem Paganini - Salvatore Accardo plays Paganini's Guarneri del Gesu 1742 Schubert - Piano Sonata No.14+19 Schumann - Piano Concerto op.54 in Am Tchaikovsky - Piano Concerto No.1, Romeo and Juliet Fantasy Overture, The Symphonies [192] Verdi - Requiem Vivaldi - Concerto in C for Violin and Double Orchestra, Concerto in D for Violin and Double Orchestra, The Four Seasons clipping - CLPPNG [24], There Existed an Addiction to Blood Coco OST Coolio - Gangsta's Paradise Corey Payette - Children of God, Les Filles du Roi Craig David - Born to Do It Curtis Clearsky and the Constellationz - Indigifunk D12 - Devil's Night, D12 World Daley - Those Who Wait [192], Days & Night [320], The Spectrum [320] D'Angelo - Brown Suger, Black Messiah [24/96] Darren Hayes - Spin Daveed Diggs - Small THings to a Giant, Seven Nights in Chicago [320] David Morin - Every Colour Deen Squad Mixtape 2015 [320] Destino - Forte, Beginning Again Destiny's Child - Destiny's Child, #1s Disclosure - Caracal DJ Danger Mouse - The Grey Album DJ Drama - Quality Street Music 2 Dmitri Shostakovich - Symphony No.1+2+3+4+5+6+8+9+12+14+15, Violin Concerto No.1 DMX - It's Dark and Hell is Hot, Flesh of My Flesh, Blood of My Blood, ...And Then There Was X Dr. Dre - 2001, Compton Drake - So Far Gone [320], Thank Me Later [320], Take Care [320], Nothing Was the Same [320], If You're Reading This It's Too Late Dream Theater - Discography (1989-2019)[16~24/96] Dream Warriors - Subliminal Simulation Dru Hill - Dru Hill, Enter the Dru Dumbfoundead - We Might Die [320], Inside/Outside [24] Dylan Brady - All I Every Wanted, Choker [128], Dog Show [128] Eagles - Hotel California Eazy-E - It's On (Dr. Dre) 187um Killa, Eternal E Elijah Blake - Bijoux 22 [128], Drift [253~276], Shadows & Diamonds [320], Blueberry Vapors [320] Eminem - The Slim Shady LP, The Marshall Mathers LP, The Eminem Show, Encore En Vogue - Funky Divas ES Posthumus - Unearthed [320] Evanescence - Discography (2003-2017)[16~24] Fantastic Negrito [320] - The Last Days of Oakland, Please Don't Be Dead Far East Movement - Free Wired FKA Twigs - LP1, Magdalene Flipsyde - Discography (2005-2012)[128~320] Florence + the Machine - Discography (2009-2018)[16~24/96] Flume - Skin [24] For vance - From Muscle Shoals [24] Frank Ocean - Discography (2011-2016)[16~24] Frank Sinatra - Ultimate Sinatra Frozen OST Fugees - The Score Future - Beast Mode [24], Future [24/96] Gallant - Zebra [320] Game of Thrones - S1-8 OST, Various Orchestra Albums, For the Throne Ghost - Meliora [24] Ginuwine - Ginuwine... The Bachelor, 100% Ginuwine Gorillaz - Gorillaz [24], Demon Days [24], Plastic Beach [24], Humanz [24/96] Grace VanderWaal [24] - Perfectly Imperfect, Just the Beginning Guru - Jazzmatazz Vol. 1 GZA - Liquid Swords Hamilton: An Americal Musical - Cast Recording, Hamildrops, Instrumentals, The Hamilton Mixtape Hans Zimmer - The Dark Knight [24/96], Inception [24][5.1], The Dark Knight Rises [24], Intersteller [24], The Classics [24/96] Harry Potter OST Hercules [192] Higher Brothers - Black Cab, Five Stars Hozier - Discography (2013-2019)[16~24] Igorrr - Hallelujah [320] Il Divo - Discography (2004-2018, except A Musical Affair)(320~16] In tha Beginning... There Was Rap Ingrid Michaelson - Discography (2005-2014) J.S. Ondara - Tales of America (The Second Coming) [24/192], Folk n' Roll Vol.1: Tales of Isolation [24] Jacques Loussier Trio - Vivaldi- The Four Seasons James Blake - Discography (2011-2019) James Vincent McMorrow [320] - Early in the Morning, Post Tropical Janelle Monáe - Discography (2010-2018)[16~24], Metropolis: Suite I (The Chase) EP Janne - Meeting the Wolf EP Jay-Z - Discography (1996-2017)[16~24] Jeremy Dutcher - Wolastoqiyik Lintuwakonawa [320] Jessie Ware - What's Your Pleasure? [24] Jhené Aiko - Chilombo [24/96] Jimi Hendrix - Experience Hendrix- The Best of Jimi Hendrix JMSN [320] - Priscilla, Pllajë, JMSN Joe - All That I Am, My Name is Joe John Coltrane - Both Directions at Once/The Lost Album John Legend - Discography (2005-2016)[320~16] Jon Mcxro - The Fifth of Never [287~310] José Tomás Molina - Discography (2014-2019)[16~24] Josh Groban - Discography (2001-2015)[320, except Stages in 16] Joss Stone - Introducing... Joss Stone Juice OST Justin Timberlake - Discography (2002-2013)[16~24] k.d. lang - Ingénue, Invincible Summer Kadebostany - Pop Collection Kanye West - Discography (2003-2019)[320-24] Kendrick Lamar - Discography (2011-2017) Kerry Muzzey - Trailer Music 3, The Architect, Trailer Music 4: Neo Kid Cudi - Discography (2008-2013) Kiel Magis - Kiel Magis Kieran Fearing - Reprieve Kieran Martin Murphy - The Painter's Hand, Theatrics Korean: DJ Doc - 4th Album eAeon - Guilt-Free H.O.T. - We hate all kinds of violence, I yah!, Age of Peace OST, Outside Castle, The Best Rain - First Drop Shinhwa - First Mythology, My Choice, Wedding k-os - Exit, Joyful Rebellion, Atlantis: Hymns for Disco Krizz Kaliko - Son of Same [239~270], Go [320] Kwabs [157~246] - Wrong or Right, Pray for Love, Walk La La Land - The Complete Musical Experience [24] La Quinta Estación - Sin Frenos [192] Ladysmith Black Mambazo [192~257] - The Very Best of Lana Del Rey - Discography (2012-2019)[16~24] Lauryn Hill - The Miseducation of Lauryn Hill Le Flow - The Definitive French Hip Hop Compilation Le Mystère des Voix Bulgares - Vol.1+2 [320] Le mystère des voix Corses - les plus belles polyphonies [320] Led Zeppelin - Discography (1969-1982), Remasters [24/96] Lenny Kravitz - Greatest Hits Leonard Cohen - The Future Les Musiciens de Saint-Julien - The High Road to Kilkenny Leslie Odom Jr. - Leslie Odom Jr. [24], Mr. Lhasa de Sela - La Llorona [320] Lil Dicky - Hump Days [256], So Hard [320], Professional Rapper [128] Lil Uzi Vert - Eternal Atake Linkin Park - Discography (2000-2017)[16~24/96] Lionel Richie - Back to Front Loïc Nottet - Selfocracy [320] London Grammar - If You Wait [24/96], This is a Beautiful Thing [24] LP - Lost on You [320] Ludacris - Chicken-Beer, Release Therapy Ludovico Einaudi - Echoes: The Einaudi Collection, Divenire [320], Nightbook, Islands: Essential Einaudi [320], Elements [320], Seven Days Walking [24] Luniz - Operation Stackola Mac Miller - Circles [24] Madredeus - Various albums (1987-2005)[128~320] MAGIC! - Don't Kill the Magic [320] Maksim - Discography (1999-2010)[320, except 2 albums in 16] Mandarin: 5566 - 1st Album Energy - E3, 無懈可擊, 米迦勒之舞 F4 - 煙火的季節 IPIS 蟑螂 - 第四蟑 RuRu - 美麗心情 S.H.E. - 青春株式會社, 美麗新世界, Together 不能說的秘密 OST [148~224] 伍佰 - 夢的河流, 冬之火 九重天演唱會特選錄音專輯 伍思凱 - 分享 南拳媽媽 - 南拳媽媽的夏天 周杰倫 - Discography (2000-2004)[16 except 同名專輯 in 320] 宋岳庭 - Life's a Struggle 張信哲 - 精選, 從開始到現在 張學友 - 走過1999, 張學友音樂之旅Live演唱會 張智成 - 凌晨三點鐘 張衛健 - 齊天大聖孫悟空 徐婕兒 - 愛之初 戴佩妮 - 怎樣 手牽手大合唱 林俊傑 - 樂行者, 第二天堂 海豚灣戀人 OST 王心凌 - Begin... 臥虎藏龍 (Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon) OST 范逸臣 - 同名專輯 蔡依林 - 看我72變, 城堡 薔薇之戀 OST 許慧欣 - 孤單芭蕾, 幸福 謝霆鋒 - VIVA, 了解, Viva Live 謝霆鋒演唱會 郭富城 - 目眩城迷 全精選 陳冠希 - Edison Chen 陳小春 - 抱一抱, That's Mine Mandido - Time on Our Hands Marc Anthony - Discography (1993-2013)[320] Marian Hill - Act One [24], Unusual Mario Frangoulis - Various Albums (1998-2014)[128~320] Marques Houston - MH Mase - Harlem World Master P - Ghetto D Max Richter - Discography (2002-2020)[16~24/96] MC 900 ft. Jesus - Welcome to My Dream, Open Step Ahead of the Spider Meek Mill - Dreams Worth More Than Money [24], Championships Metallica - Discography (Remastered)(1983-2020)[24] Metro Boomin - Not All Heroes Wear Capes [320] Miah Luz - The Coming LP Michael Bolton - Only a Woman Like You [320] Michael Bublé - Discography (1995-2013)[96~320] Michael Conway Baker - Four Musical Portraits Michael Jackson - Discography (1972-2014)[320 except Invincible in 16] Migos - Discography (2015-2018)[209~24] Miguel - Discography (2010-2017)[16~24] Miles Davis - Birth of the Cool [24/192], Bitches Brew [24/88], Kind of Blue Mirah - Discography (1997-2009)[198~256] Misha Mishenko - Discography (2016-2019) Missy Elliott - Under Construction Moana OST Mobb Deep - The Infamous Mos Def - Black on Both Sides, The Ecstatic Moulin Rouge! OST Muddy Waters - Anthology Muse - Origin of Symmetry [24/96], Absolution [24/96], The 2nd Law [24/96], Simulation Theory, Drones [24/96] Musical Theatre - Various Musical Cast Recordings (1934-2017)[170~202, except Come From Away and Hamilton in 16] Nahko - Dark as Night, On the Verge, Hoka [320], My Name is Bear [320] Namie Amuro - Break the Rules, Genius 2000 Nas - Illmatic, It Was Written, Stillmatic, God's Son, The Lost Tapes, Street's Disciple, Life is Good Naturally 7 - Discography (2000-2015) Naughty by Nature - 19 Naughty III Nav - Good Intentions [24] Ne-Yo - Discography (2006-2012)[320~16] Night Lovell - Discography (2014-2019)[320] Nina Simone - The Essential of Nina Simone [24/96] Nipsey Hussle - Crenshaw, Victory Lap Niykee Heaton - Bad Intentions, The Bedroom Tour Playlist Norah Jones - Come Away with Me, Feels Like Home, Not Too Late, Pick Me Up Off the Floor [24/96] Notre-Dame de Paris (Musical) Cast Recording Obie Trice - Cheers October London - Discography (2016-2018)[320] Omar LinX - A Cold Welcome [320], City of Ommz [320], The Living Dead EP [128], Victor [320], M.O.R [320] Omarion - O, 21, Ollusion Once OST [96] Onegin (Musical) Opera Babes - Beyond Imagination P. Diddy - No Way Out, The Saga Continues... PartyNextDoor - PX3 Pentatonix - Various albums [128~320] Peter Gundry - Discography (2016-2019)[16~24] Pharrell - Girl [24] Pink Floyd - The Dark Side of the Moon [24/88][DSD64], Pulse Playboi Carti - Die Lit PNL - Deux frères [320] Portishead - Discography (1994-2008) Post Malone - Discography (2016-2019)[16~24/88] Prince - Discography (1978-2019) Pusha T - Daytona [24] Putomayo - World Reggae, Asian Lounge Quavo - Quavo Huncho [320] Queen - Greatest Hits Rae Sremmurd [320] - SremmLife, SremmLife 2 Raincity - Tell Me, Stuck on Replay, Raincity EP Raleigh Ritchie - You're a Man Now, Boy [320] Rick Ross - Discography (2006-2017) Ricky Martin - Ricky Martin, Música + Alma + Sexo [192] Rihanna - Anti Rockapella - 2 Roscoe Dash - J.U.I.C.E. [320], Dash Effect [160] ROSK - remnants Ruelle - Up in Flames, Madness, Emerge Run the Jewels - Run the Jewels 2, RTJ3 Instrumentals [24/96] Sade - The Best of Sade Sam Cooke - Portrait of a Legend 1951-1964 [123~252] Sam Smith - Discography (2014-2017) Sandra van Nieuwland [320] - And More, Banging on the Doors of Love Santino Le Saint - Cloud 304, Xeno, Blue Pill [24], Rage of Angels Sara Bareilles - Discography (2007-2015)[320, except What's Inside - Songs from Waitess in 24] Scorpions - Discography (1972-2015) Scott Leonard - 1man1mike Sevdaliza - Discography (2017-2020) Shai - If I Ever Fall in Love [128] Sia - Discography (1997-2017)[16, except OnlySee + Healing is Difficult in M4A260, This is Acting in 24/96] Sigur Rós - Discography (1997-2013) Snoop Dogg - The Doggfather, Tha Last Meal, R&G (Rhythm&Gangsta): The Masterpiece, The Blue Carpet Treatment Solange - A Seat at the Table Southern Journey - Bad Man Ballads (Songs of Outlaws and Desperadoes, Vol. 5) Stacey [128] - Stacey, Stacey (Reconstruction), First Move Stevie Wonder - The Definitive Collection Stromae - Cheese [256], Racine carrée [24] Sun Kil Moon - Discography (2003-2017)[320, except Benji + Common as Light and Love Are Red Valleys of Blood in 16] Swollen Members - Bad Dreams SWV - It's About Time System of a Down - Toxicity SZA - Ctrl T.I. - Trouble Man Heavy is the Head Tamia - Tamia Taylor Swift - folklore [24] Tech N9ne - Discography (1999-2013)[192~320], The Storm, Enterfear TGT - Three Kings The Beatles - Discography (1963-2009) The Carters - Everything is Love The Chorus OST The Chronicles of Narnia OST The Cinematic Orchestra [320] - Every Day, Man with a Movie Camera, Ma Fleur, To Believe The Game - The Documentary, Jesus Piece [320], Blood Moon: Year of the Wolf [320], The Documentary 2+2.5 [320] The Godfather I+II+III OST [320] The Great Gatsby OST The Great Tenors - Vol.1+2, In Concert The Lion King - Complete Score [128], Return to Pride Rock [128] The Lord of the Rings OST [24] The Lumineers - Cleopatra [24/96], C-Sides [24], Live Tracks [24], III [24] The Notorious B.I.G. - Ready to Die, Life After Death, Born Again The Nutcracker (Ballet) [24/96] The Pink Panther OST [320] The Savannah Leigh Band - City of Grey The Tango Project - The Tango Project The Tenors - Discography (2008-2015)[156~254, except Under One Sky in 16] The Tony Rich Project - Words The Weeknd - Discography (2012-2020)[16~24/192] The xx - Discography (2009-2017)[320, except I See You in 16] Three 6 Mafia - Most Known Unknown Timbaland - Shock Value Tinie Tempah - Demonstration [320] Toni Braxton - Toni Braxton, Secrets Tony Bennett - The Essential Tony Bennett, a wonderful world (with k.d. lang), The Absolutely Essential 3 CD Collection, Duets II [320], Tony Bennett Celebrates 90 Tory Lanez - Discography (2010-2020, except Daystar)[160~320, except Chixtape 5 + The New Toronto 3 in 24] T-Pain - Discography (2005-2012)[192~16] Tracy Chapman - Tracy Chapman Travis Garland - Discography (2011-2015)[160~320] Travis Scott - Discography (2015-2018)[24~24/88] Trey Songz [320] - Trey Day, Passion, Pain & Pleasure, Chapter V TroyBoi - icekream [128~320], SoundSnobz [128~320], Left is Right [128], V!BEZ [128], V!BEZ, Vol.3 Tsar B - The Games I Played [320] Tyga - Discography (2008-2016)[320], Legendary Tyrese - I Wanna Go There UltraVillain - Lost in You [320] Ulvesang - Ulvesang [24], The Hunt Unity: Athens 2004 (Olympic Games Album) Usher - Discography (1994-2018)[16~24] Van Morrison - Moondance Vitas - Discography (2001-2009)[128~256, except A Kiss as Long as Eternity+20th Century Hits in 16] Waka Flocka Flame - Flockaveli Whitney - Light Upon the Lake Whitney Houston - Whitney Houston Wisin & Yandel - Discography (2000-2012)[320] Wiz Khalifa - We Dem Boyz [320], various songs [320] Wiz Khalifa & Curren$y - 2009 [24] Wyclef Jean - Carnival, Vol. II- Memoirs of an Immigrant X Japan - Discoraphy (1988-2017)[16~24/96] XXXTentacion - Revenge [320], 17 [24/192], ? [320] Xzibit - Restless Yann Tiersen - Discography (1995-2003)[96~160] YG - My Krazy Life, Still Brazy, My Life 4Hunnid [24] Young Bleed - My Balls and My Word Young Buck - Buck the World Young Thug - Barter 6 [320], Slime Season [24], Slime Season 2 [320], I'm Up [320], Slime Season 3 [320], Jeffery [320], So Much Fun Yuki Kajiura - Discography (includes side projects: FictionJunction/YUUKA, Kalafina)(Anime soundtracks 1996-2018) Yuna - Chapters [320] Zed Yun Pavarotti - French Cash [320] Zeina [320] - Odd One Out, various singles
Don't panic, crypto is still crushing the stock market in 2020
purchased $100 of each of Top Ten Cryptos in Jan. 2020, haven't sold or traded. Did the same in 2018 and 2019. Learn more about the history and rules of the Experimentshere.
August - strong month for 2020 Top Ten led by ETH and Tezos
Since Jan. 2020 - ETH, ETH, ETH, far far ahead (+266%). Tezos a distant second at +158%. 100% of 2020 Top Ten are in positive territory and have a combined ROI of +83% vs. +9% of the S&P
Combining all three three years, Top Ten cryptos outperforming S&P if I'd taken a similar approach.
In August, which socialite sold a drawing of her cat for $17,000 worth of Ethereum?
A) Ivanka Trump B) Paris Hilton C) Kim Kardashian D) That other one Scroll down for the answer.
Ranking and August Winners and Losers
2020 Top Ten Rank Despite another strong month overall, most of our 2020 Top Ten Cryptos either held steady or lost ground. XRP, BCH, and EOS each fell one position to #4, #6, and #12. BSV dropped two spots from #6 to #8. Heading the other direction, stablecoin Tether ended August climbing back up to #3. August Winners – ETH backed up July‘s massive +55% gain with another very solid month, finishing August up +32%. Tezos finished in second place, +15% on the month. August Losers – BSV and BCH were the worst performing of the 2020 Top Ten Portfolio, down -17% and -9% respectively Since COVID-19 has hammered the sporting world, let’s be overly competitive and pit these cryptos against themselves, shall we? Here’s a table showing which cryptos have the most monthly wins and losses at this point in the experiment. With its second straight win ETH is now in the lead with three monthly Ws. On the other hand, BSV, even though it is up +100% since January 1st, 2020, has been the worst performing crypto of the bunch four out of the first eight months so far this year. 2020 Top Ten Ws and Ls
Overall update – ETH far out in front, followed Tezos. 100% of Top Ten are in positive territory.
Ethereum pulled farther ahead this month and now is up +266% on the year. Thanks to a strong month for Tezos and a week month for BSV, Tezos has now overtaken BSV for second place, up +158% in 2020. Discounting Tether (no offense Big-T), BCH (+32%) is now the worst performing cryptocurrency of the 2020 Top Ten portfolio. 100% of the cryptos in this group are in positive territory.
Total Market Cap for the cryptocurrency sector:
The overall crypto market gained almost $43B in August, ending the month up +104% since the beginning of this year’s experiment in January 2020.
Bitcoin dominance:
2020 monthly BitDom BitDom finally saw significant movement in August: it fell to 56.8%, the lowest level of the year. This of course signals a greater appetite for altcoins. The range up to this point in the year has been roughly 57% to 68%.
Overall return on investment since January 1st, 2020:
After an initial $1000 investment, the 2020 Top Ten Portfolio is now worth $1,825, up +82.52%. It is back to being the best performing of the three Top Ten Crypto Index Fund Portfolios, but by the smallest of margins: the 2019 group came in at +82.51% in August. Here’s the month by month ROI of the 2020 Top Ten Experiment, hopefully helpful to maintain perspective and provide an overview as we go along: Monthly ROI to 2020 Top Ten Even during the zombie apocalypse blip in March, the 2020 Top Ten managed to end every month so far in the green (for a mirror image, check out the all red table you’ll in the 2018 experiment). The range of monthly ROI for the 2020 Top Ten has been between a low of +7% in March and high of +83% in August. So, how does the 2020 Top Ten Experiment compare to the parallel projects?
Taken together, here’s the bottom bottom bottom line: After a $3000 investment in the 2018, 2019, and 2020 Top Ten Cryptocurrencies, my combined portfolios are worth $3,937 ($287+ $1,825 +$1,825). That’s up about +31% for the three combined portfolios. It also marks the highest ROI of the three combined portfolios since I started keeping track in January 2020. The previous high was last month‘s +23%. Lost in the numbers? Here’s a table to help visualize the progress of the combined portfolios: ROI on $1k + $1k +$1k over three years That’s a +31% gain by buying $1k of the cryptos that happened to be in the Top Ten on January 1st, 2018, 2019, and 2020. But what if I’d gone all in on only one Top Ten crypto for the past three years? While most have come and gone over the life of the experiment, five cryptos have remained in Top Ten for all three years: BTC, ETH, XRP, BCH, and LTC. Let’s take a look at those five: Three year club. ETH would have been your best bet. At this point in the Experiments, Ethereum (+160%) would have easily returned the most, followed by BTC (+93%). On the other hand, following this approach with XRP, I would have been down -17%. So that’s the Top Ten Crypto Index Fund Experiments snapshot. Let’s take a look at how traditional markets are doing.
Comparison to S&P 500
I’m also tracking the S&P 500 as part of my experiment to have a comparison point to traditional markets. The S&P continued its recovery and set an all time high in August. It is now up +9% in 2020. S&P throughout 2020 Over the same time period, the 2020 Top Ten Crypto Portfolio is returning about +83%. The initial $1k investment in crypto is now worth about $1,825. That sane $1k I put into crypto in January 2020 would be worth $1090 had it been redirected to the S&P 500 instead. That’s a $735 difference on a $1k investment, the largest gap in favor of crypto all year. But that’s just 2020. What if I invested in the S&P 500 the same way I did during the first three years of the Top Ten Crypto Index Fund Experiments? What I like to call the world’s slowest dollar cost averaging method? Here are the figures:
$1000 investment in S&P 500 on January 1st, 2018: +$310
$1000 investment in S&P 500 on January 1st, 2019: +$400
$1000 investment in S&P 500 on January 1st, 2020: +$90
Taken together, here’s the bottom bottom bottom line for a similar approach with the S&P: After three $1,000 investments into an S&P 500 index fund in January 2018, 2019, and 2020, my portfolio would be worth $3,800. That $3,800 is up over +27%since January 2018, compared to a +31% gain of the combined Top Ten Crypto Experiment Portfolios over the same period of time. For the second month in a row, the better overall investment would be (drum roll please): the Top Ten Crypto Portfolios! As you’ll see in the table below, this is only the second time since I started recording this metric that crypto has outperformed a hypothetical identical investment in the S&P. Combined crypto vs. S&P over three years
Conclusion:
August was the second straight strong month in crypto and the 2020 Top Ten continue to do very well compared to traditional markets. As I’m putting together these reports, both crypto and traditional markets are diving, but these Experiments are great for a bit of perspective: there is no question that crypto has been a better investment than traditional markets so far this year. It’s not even close. How the rest of the year will develop is another question entirely, stay tuned and buckle up. Stay healthy and take care of yourselves out there. Or better yet, just pop some popcorn and enjoy staying in. Thanks for reading and for supporting the experiment. I hope you’ve found it helpful. I continue to be committed to seeing this process through and reporting along the way. Feel free to reach out with any questions and stay tuned for progress reports. Keep an eye out for the original 2018 Top Ten Crypto Index Fund Experiment and the 2019 Top Ten Experiment follow up experiment.
And the Answer is…
B) Paris Hilton At an auction in August, Paris Hilton sold a portrait of her cat that fetched 40 ETH, about $17,000 at the time. She donated the proceeds of the sale to charity. That's hot.
Thank you for tuning into this episode of defending the draft; where we put on our Honolulu blue tinted glasses and project nothing but great things for the rookies that have been drafted. Now obviously not everyone will make it big in the NFL, it’s incredibly hard to hit a home run with one or two picks so hitting on a whole draft class would be once in a lifetime prospect. Quinn has seemingly adopted the Patriot way of drafting, and instead of looking to hit that home run on each pick they evaluate players based on what role they can perform and where they can fit on the roster. Without further ado, let’s dive on in.
Player
Position
HT
WT
Draft Slot
Jeffery Okudah
CB
6'1"
205
Round 1, #3
D'Andre Swift
RB
5'8"
212
Round 2, #35
Julian Okwara
OLB/DE
6'4"
252
Round 3, #67
Jonah Jackson
OG
6'3"
306
Round 3, #75
Logan Stenberg
OG
6'6"
317
Round 4, #121
Quintez Cephus
WR
6'1"
202
Round 5, # 166
Jason Huntley
RB/KR
5'9"
193
Round 5, #172
John Penisini
DT
6'1"
313
Round 6, #197
Jashon Cornell
DT/DE
6'2"
287
Round 7, #235
Round 1
Pick 3, Jeffery Okudah, CB, Ohio State
Leading up to the NFL draft there was a ton of talk about the Lions trading the number 3 pick in the draft. It was the hope of many that this would happen. Getting another day 2 pick would have been ideal but it seems that the Lions had other plans in mind. The Dolphins and Chargers seemed content to let the draft fall to them and probably didn’t offer up much in the way of capital to the Lions. So, the Lions went and submitted their pick to get “their guy”. Their guy ended up being Jeff Okudah, CB, Ohio State. This was a guy that was often mocked to the Lions at three so it definitely wasn’t a flashy pick that generated much hype for some, but he was often mocked at three for a reason. Let’s take a look at why. If I wanted to sum up Okudah in a word it would be fluid. This guy is silky smooth with great foot quickness. Okudah can mirror receivers and stay in their hip pocket throughout their route. Okudah seems to process the field well and can pick up on route concepts. Okudah has worked a lot on getting his head around and does well with tracking the ball and getting his hand in to break up the pass. Okudah is a physical press corner that excels in man coverage. He should be able to drop right into Patricia’s defense and develop as a number 2 corner behind Trufant, at least for the next year or two before taking over as the number one. Okudah is a high character guy who is very intelligent as shown by his wonderlic score of 30. Okudah also has great measurables. He ran the 40 in 4.48 seconds with a 1.6 second 10-yard split. He had a crazy 41-inch vertical along with a 135-inch broad jump. Okudah Also plays with a ton of confidence, but not in a cocky arrogant way. He is confident that all the time he has put into watching film and preparing for game day has given him the knowledge to beat you in any possible way. If a new wrinkle is thrown in, he can learn on the fly and won’t let it catch him off guard again. Some people have brought up that Okudah is a bit handsy in coverage, this shows me that Okudah was able to play within the maximum constraints of the game. It might take a bit of adjusting for him to get used to NFL referees but he should be able to maximize his hand use within the confines of the rules. Okudah’s 2019 season was his most productive in college as he racked up 12 passes defensed, 3 interceptions, and 2 forced fumbles. Where does he fit now? Okudah seems to have the talent to drop right into the thick of it and start as the number one corner right away. Patricia usually has the rookies earn their spots so Okudah will probably be an understudy to Trufant, at least for a while. If Okudah crushes his assignments early and often expect him to wrestle the starting spot away from Trufant. Where does he project? Okudah has the talent, technique, physical strength, intellect, and confidence to be one of the best shutdown corners in the league. Given his thirst for knowledge and willingness to improve himself I see no clear obstacles to his final projection.
Round 2
Pick 35, D’Andre Swift, RB, Georgia
The Lions went into day two with the 35th pick in the draft. I was thinking that the Lions could trade back a bit and then go defensive line. Color me surprised when the Lions went with a running back at the top of the second round. D’Andre Swift was the pick and there is a lot to like with Swift. There is a lot to like in his running style and traits. He is a quick processor and can identify the hole quickly even if they open up a little late. He also displays enough patience to allow for plays to develop before turning on the jets. Once he makes his mind up, he commits and can burst through the hole. In the open field he has enough wiggle and power to put would be tacklers off balance and then run through them. Swift also shows off a nice little spin move that he likes to pull out every once in a while. Swift has great hands and can catch whatever is thrown his way. He has good suddenness in his routes and generally gravitates towards open space. Swift displays natural hands and can seamlessly track the football and look it in for the catch. Swift shows good speed and quickness on film and his combine reaffirms that. He ran a 4.48 40-yard dash with a 1.59 10-yard split. He jumped 35.5 inches in the vertical and 121 inches in the broad jump. He didn’t do any agility drills but his tape shows good quickness with the ability to make sharp cuts then burst out just as quickly. He has also posted some workout videos that display his insane foot speed. Swift can even do a decent job at blocking when needed. He can be a tad slow to process double blitzes but he can usually put his body on a blocker and keep his QB safe for an extra second or so. Swift is a gamer, and I am excited to see what he can do with the Lions. Where does he fit now? The Lions have a fairly crowded backfield with Kerryon Johnson, Bo Scarbrough, Ty Johnson, and Jason Huntley. Swift should immediately slot in as the backup running back while being the first option as a receiving back. Where does he project? Swift has the talent to be one of the best running backs from his draft class. He is a complete back that can get it done on the ground and as a receiving option. He projects to be the best running back the Lions have had since Barry Sanders and given the health concerns with Kerryon Johnson over the past two years, Swift may be on a fast track to proving his worth.
Round 3
Pick 67, Julian Okwara, OLB/DE , Notre Dame
In the third round the Lions selected Julian Okwara. This pick makes sense on two fronts. Firstly, the Lions needed to shore up their pass rush. They simply couldn’t get any going last season and Julian could possibly be a key cog in unlocking the pass rush. Secondly, the Lions already roster Julian’s brother, Romeo, on the team which can be a huge bonus to helping him get ready for the upcoming season with a neutered off-season program. Romeo has been with the Lions for two seasons and should be able to bring his brother up to speed on plays and terminology. Okwara as a player has grown not just as a player at Notre Dame, but also as a leader. Brian Kelly has gone on record to say that he thought it was darn near impossible for Okwara to become a Leader. This leads me to believe that Okwara was an incredibly immature player earlier in his college career. As time went on, he seems to have matured and was named a captain. Okwara as a prospect is an interesting study. He is fast and strong. He can convert speed to power and show decent bend along the edge. He also has experience dropping into coverage and has a good idea about his assignments. At times he can react a bit slow or not be aware at all of the ball when he drops onto coverage. At times he appears to be incredibly dominant and other times he can get pushed around quite a bit. He also needs more development as a run blocker as he took himself out of some plays. Where does he fit now? Okwara Should be able to slot in at the JACK linebacker spot. He could also rotate in as a DE on some downs. Where does he project? Okwara should be able to develop into the starting JACK linebacker while rotating in as a pass rushing specialist at DE.
Pick 75, Jonah Jackson, OG, Ohio State
As the draft played out, the Lions were not comfortable with waiting for their original draft slot at 85. They sent 85, 149. and 182 for 75 and 197. The Lions ended up trading up to nab Jonah Jackson out of Ohio. Initially it was a disappointing pick, not because of the player, but because they hype of trading up in the draft conveys a certain excitement that needs to be quenched by a flashy pick. An OG is pretty much the antithesis of a flashy pick though. That being said, Jonah Jackson is a great dude and a solid player. He spent 4 years at Rutgers getting the job done. He then said to himself, “this is too easy, I want more” so he transferred to Ohio State so he could be part of the strongest conference in college football on one of the best teams in college football. He continued to get the job done giving up only one sack or QB on 1,020 pass-blocking snaps. The Lions must have seen something they loved about Jackson as they had first hand experience coaching him in the Senior Bowl. Jonah Jackson also exhibits position versatility as he played games at multiple positions over his career. He logged 13 games at RG, 14 games at LG, and 3 games at C. When I watched Jonah Jackson play I just thought to myself, he might lose a battle, but he will win the war. He just seems so technically sound with his hand placement and footwork that he can turn a loss on a first move into a win as he readjusts. He exhibits good body control at times and is able to redirect the opponent’s power and speed to where he wants it to go. He also shows plus play power which he uses to stonewall rushers and move blockers out of the way in the run game. He always keeps his head on a swivel and hunts out contact. Where does he fit now? The incumbent OG’s on the Lions are Joe Dahl, Kenny Wiggins, Joshua Garnett, Beau Benzschawel, Caleb Benenoch, and Oday Aboushi. It’s not exactly a strong lineup. Jonah Jackson should be right up there in competition for a starting slot and should be able to beat out one of the projected starting guards in Dahl or Wiggins. Where does he project? Assuming Jackson and Stenberg win roles, then I would project Jackson to RG as he is more position versatile than Stenberg and has more experience playing different spots on the line. If the Lions could come out of this draft with two quality guards then this line will be set for a while. Decker, Stenberg, Ragnow, Jackson, Vaitai. Decker is the only one that is playing in a contract year. This line should have enough time to play together and gel. Hopefully we finally have a strong pass and run blocking line.
Round 4
Pick 121, Logan Stenberg, OG, Kentucky
The Lions had a bit of a wait after their second third round pick at 75 and had to wait until 121 to pick again. Color everyone surprised when Quinn went and double-dipped at OG with back to back picks. Logan Stenberg ended up being the pick and if I had to sum him up in one word it would be “NASTY”. This guy is on another level when it comes to the effort he plays with on the field. He goes and mauls everything in his way and then looks for more. He is as strong as an ox and just beats people down constantly. That being said, his emotions can get the best of him as he collected 14 penalties in 2019 alone. Stenberg was also part of the Senior Bowl this year and was able to impress the opposing Lions enough for them to draft him. Stenberg is a strong people mover and is stout at the line. He doesn’t seem as controlled and balanced as Jackson but he has more power. Where does he fit now? As said with Jackson, the OG lineup isn’t exactly stellar. Stenberg can potentially go in and win the LG spot outright. If not, the Lions have dabbled in rotating lineman before and he could be a depth piece. Where does he project? He should be able to lock up a starting role once he gets some NFL seasoning. He is a powerful player but lacks in discipline and could use some time fleshing out his pass-sets. He should be a plus run-blocking guard and should be able to open up nice gaps on the left side of the line next to Decker and Ragnow.
Round 5
Pick 166, Quintez Cephus, WR, Wisconsin
In a draft that sported a total of 36 wide receivers being drafted it would be a pretty large disappointment to finish the draft without a single one. The Lions decided to draft Quintez Cephus in the 5th round. The first thing that pops out when you research Cephus is his combine. More specifically his 4.73 second 40-yard dash. This was the worst run out of all the wide receivers at the combine. This time is quite shocking though as he seems to play a lot faster than his time and seems to have a lot of poweexplosion in his lower body as indicated by his vertical jump and broad jump of 38.5 inches and 124 inches respectively. He also posted the most reps of 225 at the combine with 23. His combine pretty much sums him up as a player when watching film. He can get off the line with good burst, he is incredibly physical and won’t get bullied by defenders, and his long speed is questionable. Cephus, with his strength, feasts on contested catches. He has immensely strong mitts that can pluck and pry the ball out of the air or from defenders. He is exactly the kind of receiver the Lions have lacked since Boldin graced the Lions with his dad strength. A rough and tough receiver that is a reliable receiver. There was one play that I really enjoyed watching. Against Oregon, 3rd and 4, Cephus catches the ball on the line of scrimmage. Troy Dye, the Vikings 4th round draft pick, is in position to tackle him 2 yards shy of the first. Cephus throws out a stiff arm and puts Dye on his butt, uses the contact to bounce towards the first down marker, then carries another linebacker on his back for an additional 8 yards. Thanks for u/The_PantsMcPants for reminding me that Okudah called Cephus the hardest WR to cover in an interview awhile back. Where does he fit now? Cephus should be able to slot in at the 4th receiver role. Travis Fulgham from the 2019 draft hasn’t shown much yet and could be surpassed by Cephus. He could see most of his work in short yardage situations that require reliability and strong hands. 3rd and short and red zone might be places we see Cephus most often. Where does he project? The Lions are going into the season with their top 3 wide receivers on the last year of their deal. The Lions will most likely extend Golladay, but the future of the elderly Amendola and Marvin Jones may be up in the air. Cephus could most likely be used in a similar fashion as Amendola, but he provides more of a big slot, contested catch type of ability.
Pick 172, Jason Huntley, RB, New Mexico State
With their next pick the Lions surprised damn near everybody. People could understand why Quinn would double dip at guard, but now at running back? It was a bit puzzling at first, especially since it was a small school nobody that didn’t even make the top 300 players for some draft pundits. The Lions selected Jason Huntley out of New Mexico State and his trademark is versatility. Huntley can possibly take three people’s jobs this coming season. He can be a back-up running back, he can be a kick returner, and he can possibly deny a roster spot to a back-up wide receiver. To start off, Huntley is a small dude. He is 5’9” and about 193lbs. That puts him an inch taller and 19lbs lighter that D’Andre Swift, but Huntley has the speed and top end gear that Swift doesn’t. Huntley was timed around 4.37 at his pro day, which would have made him the fastest running back at the combine had he been invited. His speed is apparent when his receives kicks as he housed 5 during his career at New Mexico. On top of all that, he also has good hands as he is the only running back in this draft that broke 1000 yards receiving throughout his career in college. There was also one game against UTEP in which he averaged almost 14 yards per carry as he ran rampant racking up 191 yards and 3 TD on just 14 carries. Where does he fit now? Huntley as a running back can slot into the J.D. McKissic role from last season as more of a scat back. He can be a dynamic receiving option that won’t get much work between the tackles. He could also push Jamal Agnew for the kick returner job. Where does he project? Based on his college production in the return game he has the potential to become an elite kick returner. He also has the skills to be a role player as a game-breaking scat back that can flex out wide and catch passes.
Round 6
Pick 197, John Penisini, DT, Utah
On to the 6th round and the Lions finally got around to addressing the defensive tackle spot. The Lions just lost Snacks Harrison and were in need of a run stuffing defensive tackle. The Lions Signed Danny Shelton in the offseason and he should be able to plug up hole effectively but it never hurts to add depth to rotate out those big bodies. In comes Penisini. He is a stout tackle that is all motor. He never quits on a play and will continue to run and hustle no matter what. There were multiple times where Penisini would be around chasing the ball 7+ yards away from the line of scrimmage and tackling the ball carrier. He also has the strength to eat up double teams and shed the blocks to still make a tackle. This guy doesn’t quit and I love it. Penisini plays with great **pad level** and can control his opponent with strong hands. Where does he fit now? He should be able to back up Shelton right from the get go and be a plus run stuffer. Not much else to say about him, he will be a one or two down role-player as a run stuffer and that’s about it. Where does he project? Penisini has shown some flashes or pass rushing potential in college but he will need to improve his pass rush arsenal if he hopes to make an impact in the pros. With some development Penisini could become a 3 down DT, but that is quite a bit of wishful thinking. With his motor and drive I can see him making it happen, but I wouldn’t be too hopeful.
Round 7
Pick 235, Jashon Cornell, DE/DT, Ohio State
In the 7th round the Lions picked up another versatile player in Jashon Cornell. He was largely unheralded out of Ohio State as he was overshadowed by all the star power around him. His size also makes him a bit of a tweener placing him between an oversized DE or an undersized DT. Where does he fit now? Cornell will be fighting for a backend roster spot. His versatility to play two spots may let him make the roster over someone else. He fits a similar mold that made Austin Bryant a Lion in the 2019 draft. If he makes the roster he may be a rotation DE that could kick inside to DT on pass rushing downs. Where does he project? Cornell has shown that he can put together a decent season with an all-star cast around him. Does that make him an opportunist or a product of the system? Either way he will need to earn his keep and being an impact rotational player is about as high as I would project him in the future.
Projected Roster
QB: Matthew Stafford, Chase Daniels RB: Kerryon Johnson, D'Andre Swift, Bo Scarbrough, Ty Johnson, Jason Huntley FB: Luke Sellers WR: Kenny Golladay, Marvin Jones, Danny Amendola, Quintez Cephus, Marvin Hall TE: TJ Hockenson, Jesse James, Hunter Bryant OT: Taylor Decker, Halapoulivaati Vaitai, Tyrell Crosby, OG: Joe Dahl, Jonah Jackson, Kenny Wiggins, Logan Stenberg, Joshua Garnett C: Frank Ragnow DT: Danny Shelton, Nick Williams, John Penisini, Jashon Cornell DE: Trey Flowers, Romeo Okwara, DaShawn Hand, Austin Bryant LB: Jaime Collins, Jahlani Tavai, Jarrad Davis, Julian Okwara, Reggie Ragland, Christian Jones CB: Desmond Trufant, Jeffery Okudah, Justin Coleman, Amani Oruwariye, Mike Ford, Bobby Price S: Tracy Walker, Duron Harmon, Will Harris, Jayron Kearse, Jalen Elliott P: Arryn Siposs K: Matt Prater LS: Steven Wirtel Obviously means all of about nothing now. Such an early projection when no one has even started practicing yet. I just went out on a limb and made some surprise upsets. I have Reeves-Maybin, Killebrew, Virgin, Fulgham, Mulbach, and Agnew all losing their jobs. Five UDFA made my list, Hunter Bryant, Bobby Price, Jalen Elliott, Luke Sellers, and Arryn Siposs. The biggest change is me betting against the timeless wonder Muhlbach. Take it with a grain of salt.
Hello everyone. Late last year I made weekly rankings on fantasyfootball and received a lot of positive feedback. Since that time I started writing about the NFL Draft on RotoBaller. Here are my half-PPR Top 10 Rankings. All comments and discussion welcome. ..................... I’m considering David Johnson at six. Not the sixth round, but at sixth overall. I’m hoping to land Devonta Freeman or Derrick Henry in the third round, but the decision is a tough one if both are on the board. For quarterback, I’m either going Aaron Rodgers in the seventh round or waiting until the tenth to grab Lamar Jackson. Do I sound crazy? Out of touch? Of course. But in the summer of 2019, these were common takes. Imagine someone drafted Lamar Jackson in the third round last year? Or Derrick Henry in the first? Or Dalvin Cook in the top four? They’d have been ridiculed. Chalk rankings and ADP are not accurate predictors of fantasy production. Players who are being drafted outside the top 20 at their position will finish within the top 10. Players drafted in the first two rounds will *gasp* bust. The actual season never actually happens as the expert rankings tell you it would. The purpose of my rankings is to accurately predict that chaos. The ultimate goal here is to get every single ranking correct, but more realistically, nail some that differ from the consensus. Hopefully, they’ll help you uncover this year's Lamar Jackson. These rankings are based on half-PPR scoring. Projections are prorated for 16 games, but injury risks in terms of possible missed games factor into the rankings. Upside and floor also factor in, which may explain why a player ranked lower may have better projections than a player ranked higher. Stay tuned in the coming days for rankings 11-20, followed by full QB, RB, WR, and TE rankings.
Christian McCaffrey is coming off one of the best fantasy seasons of all time but his situation has changed. He has a new head coach in Matt Rhule, a new offensive coordinator in Joe Brady, and a new quarterback in Teddy Bridgewater. Even though regression is expected, these changes do not make his situation worse. Bridgewater is an upgrade over Kyle Allen and Joe Brady is a stud young coach who just dominated the college ranks. His philosophy about using running backs as receiving weapons meshes well with McCaffrey’s skillset. McCaffrey had a 24% target share in the past two seasons. While the addition of Robby Anderson could drop that number a bit, his new QB’s propensity for short passes should keep his share over 22%. The skill that sets McCaffrey apart from all other backs is not his receiving prowess - but his durability. He handled over 700 touches at Stanford and has played every game in his three NFL seasons. Every player has some level of injury risk, but McCaffrey has proven to be more durable than most. Projections: 287 rushes, 1320 yds, 92 rec, 737 yds, 13 TD 2 Saquon Barkley- RB, Giants There is a strong case to be made for Saquon Barkley as RB1. He is more freakishly athletic than McCaffrey and averaged 2.8 yards after contact compared to McCaffrey’s 1.8 last season. The Giants used two premium picks on offensive linemen, including fourth overall, and expect growth from Will Hernandez. Daniel Jones is coming off a rookie year in which he proved to be a fantasy-friendly player. New Giants offensive coordinator Jason Garrett hasn’t called plays in a while but has had success feeding his RB1 as a head coach. I expect Barkley to be fed. There is league MVP upside here. Projections: 298 rushes, 1482 yds, 69 rec, 554 yds, 13 TD 3 Ezekiel Elliot - RB, Cowboys I hate chalk rankings. They are boring and regurgitate the same things over and over. The fact that my Top 3 is chalk is frustrating, but that’s what my projections spit out. Zeke is going to be the top weapon on a high-powered offense with PFF’s third-ranked offensive line. I actually do not love his ceiling. I think he is a terrific bet to finish anywhere from RB3 to RB7, but has a fairly low chance to be the RB1 or RB2. Zeke is a year older with a huge contract while impressive second-year backup Tony Pollard is still on his rookie deal and has earned more than the 20% rushing share he had last season. Dak Prescott is also a rushing threat and the Cowboys have one of the best receiver groups in the NFL. Locked in as the RB3 in most formats, there’s no reason to get cute here. His floor when healthy is too high. And as a bonus, he’s already had COVID-19! Projections: 280 rushes, 1242 yds, 57 rec, 485 yds, 14 TD 4 Dalvin Cook - RB, Vikings A year ago, I compared 2019 Dalvin Cook to 2014 Demarco Murray. That proved to be an apt comparison, as Cook broke out thanks in large part due to the addition of Gary Kubiak to the Vikings coaching staff. Unfortunately, untimely injury issues hurt his fantasy owners. Fantasy players have trust issues with him as a result, which is impacting his ADP. Cook was rumored to hold out but instead reported to camp. He is locked in as the featured player on a solid team with a huge role in the passing game. Cook has been an elite touchdown scorer and backfield receiving option dating back to his days dominating the ACC at Florida State. Even with expected slight regression in YPC, TD rate, and target share, Cook projects to continue his efficient ways whenever on the field. The only drawback with Cook as a fantasy asset is his injury risk, having missed 19 of 48 NFL games. It has always been my philosophy to draft currently healthy players based on talent and ignore past injuries unless there is a scientific reason to doubt their chances of staying on the field. Cook has yet to play a full 16-game season, but two years removed from a torn ACL, he’s worth the perceived risk. I would rather have a player miss games on my bench than fail to produce in my lineup. I have the stomach to handle injury risk players because I have confidence in my ability to fill my lineup with good players if they miss time. What hurts my soul is a poor performer IN my lineup. Projections: 259 rushes, 1,140 yds, 62 rec, 511 yds, 13 TD 5 Alvin Kamara- RB, Saints Slowed by nagging injuries, Alvin Kamara had a relatively disappointing 2019 season, finishing as RB8 after widely being drafted in the top three. He is due for some serious positive TD regression after hitting paydirt just 6 times in 2019. He scored 18 and 13 in his first two seasons. It was evident on film that Kamara was not as explosive in 2019 as he was the two years prior, but that can be blamed on the nagging injuries. Kamara himself said he played the season “on one leg” and at just 75%. The only changes in his situation are the additions of Emmanuel Sanders and Ty Montgomery, who hasn’t been relevant in years. The floor here is so high, predicting injury, which is a fool's errand, is the only reason to pass on Kamara near his ADP. Projections: 199 rushes, 895 yds, 87 rec, 688 yds, 12 TD 6 Joe Mixon- RB, Bengals Joe Mixon finished as the RB6 in the second half of last season. His lack of production in the first half can be explained by a new offense, terrible offensive line, and a curious lack of action in the passing game. His 8% target share dropped from his 2018 target share of 12%, and because Giovanni Bernard’s did as well, Zac Taylor’s offense clearly did not emphasize utilizing RBs in the passing game. I expect that to change with a year of Taylor self-scouting and evolving his offense. Teams that don’t use their backs in the passing game are behind the eight ball in terms of analytics. It would be foolish to continue to target backs at such a low rate. Part of the explanation could be the necessity of keeping their backs in protection to help a porous offensive line. The line will be better, as stud first-round pick Jonah Williams returns at left tackle, and expected growth from Billy Price. The Rams added a quality tackle the year Gurley broke out. Offensive line aside, the addition of Joe Burrow points to more targets in the passing game for Bengals RBs after he helped feed Clyde Edwards-Helaire at LSU. So if Mixon’s targets go up and he remains as effective as a runner, there is big-time upside in an offense that will be much better. I’m buying the Bengals offense this year. Projections: 290 rushes, 1,283 yds, 41 rec, 342 yds, 12 TD 7 Josh Jacobs- RB, Raiders The Raiders ran the ball at the eighth-highest rate in the league last season and return one of the better offensive lines in the NFL. Josh Jacobs had an extremely impressive rookie season, grading out as PFF’s second-ranked runner, despite battling a shoulder injury. Jacobs has as good a shot as any RB to lead the league in rushing. His value is dependent on two key factors. First is his role in the passing game. At Alabama, Jacobs was frequently used as a pass-catcher, while Damien Harris was more of the grinder. Jacobs flashed terrific hands and pass pro reps on film, which made his lack of involvement in the Raiders’ passing game last year curious. The second factor, his questionable durability outlook, is actually related to that lack of volume as a pass-catcher. The Raiders likely scaled back his workload in terms of the mental side of the game. Jacobs was not a featured player at Alabama, but the Raiders still saw him as their best pure runner. So, instead of giving a green rookie a full plate of assignments, they let him succeed as a runner while using Jalen Richard, who isn’t a great runner, to his strengths as a receiving back. It makes sense that in his second year, Jacobs’ role in the passing game will expand. In fact, Mike Mayock has already mentioned it. The potential league-winning question is how many touches can Jacobs handle, considering he's never been a workhorse and has had injury issues. My projections are aggressive because two old-school football minds spent a first-round pick on him and he’s done nothing but impress when on the field. Projections: 302 rushes, 1,344 yds, 35 rec, 271 yds, 11 TD 📷 8 Nick Chubb- RB, Browns The Browns offense underachieved under Freddie Kitchens last season. Baker Mayfield regressed, the offensive line played poorly, and the talented receivers underperformed. Nick Chubb still finished as RB7. Chubb’s production fell when Kareem Hunt returned from suspension, but he was still the preferred running option, and his effectiveness remained elite. 16 games of Hunt is a legitimate concern, but reports have him cross-training at wide receiver, which will allow the Browns to play both on the field at the same time. Chubb’s 77% rushing share will probably decline, but everything else about his situation looks better. Kevin Stefanski has had success with running backs, most recently Dalvin Cook. Both tackle spots have been upgraded, with Jedrick Wills on the left side and Jack Conklin on the right side. The Browns even added lead-blocker fullback Andy Janovich from Denver. Chubb averaged five yards per carry last year and has a real chance to approach that number again. He's currently being drafted with substantial drops in rushing share and efficiency baked in. The Browns will run more and be a better offense, so I’m buying Chubb everywhere. My only two concerns are his lack of involvement in the passing game and a chance of a lower TD rate due to all the prolific TD-scorers on the roster. Projections: 284 rushes, 1,418 yds, 20 rec, 153 yds, 12 TD 9 Michael Thomas- WR, Saints One of the biggest mistakes fantasy players make is placing too much emphasis on what happened last year. You aren’t drafting a player and simply getting last year’s stats. On the other hand, looking back at stats from two-plus years ago is probably even less relevant. The job of fantasy prognosticators is to project what will happen this year, and in many cases, while that does involve analyzing what happened last year, it is often overstated. Football factors, such as situation, film, coaching, and schedule are difficult to quantify in projections, but insight into more than just the math can give you an edge. I try to mix logical football reasons based on film study and a deeper understanding of the game when projecting next season. There was no 2018 or 2017 data that would suggest Michael Thomas would command 185 targets in 2019. What could have been predicted was the impact of losing Mark Ingram and the lack of development from potential ancillary receiving options, in addition to the foreseeable uptick in passing attempts. Keep this in mind when I paint possible scenarios in order to go out on a limb and separate my rankings from the cookie-cutter chalk. Imagine the backlash a fantasy expert would have gotten for ranking Thomas in the top-five last offseason. Thomas had a 34% target share last season. He’s still basically the same player as he was in 2018 when he had a 28% target share, and there is no reason to expect 180+ targets again. The Saints passed more last year than they did in 2017 and 2018, Drew Brees is a year older, and Emmanuel Sanders is now a legitimate second option. Thomas has a high floor, but even my projection of 163 targets might be aggressive given his 147 targets in 2018 and 149 in 2017. Projections: 163 targets, 129 rec, 1,486 yds, 8 TD 10 Jonathan Taylor- RB, Colts A rookie rounds out my top 10, but not the one you might expect. Full disclosure: I am a draftnik. I may tend to overvalue rookies. And the interesting thing here is that I didn’t even have Jonathan Taylor as a top-three back in my pre-draft RB rankings. I wasn’t exactly low on him, I just loved Dobbins and CEH, and thought Swift had upside as a pass-catcher. So why am I ranking Taylor so high? Let’s look at the facts. One of the greatest runners in the history of college football was drafted with the 41st pick, the sweet spot for RBs, by the Colts after a trade-up. The Colts have the best offensive line in football, a bright and productive offensive coaching staff, and a veteran quarterback who has had a ton of success checking at the line of scrimmage and generally utilizing running backs throughout his career. The elephant in the room is Marlon Mack, who was drafted by the Colts with the 143rd pick in 2017 and has ranked as the 28th, 37th, and 31st running back by PFF in the past three seasons. Mack is a good player, but the Colts did not use a premium pick on a workhorse with the goal of splitting the workload evenly. I’m actually more concerned with Hines taking snaps away in full-PPR leagues. The Colts will finish in the top-five in rushing attempts this season (poor division helps), and Taylor will win leagues. He’s not a great receiver and I am somewhat concerned that three of my top ten running backs have receiving workload question marks. Full-PPR drafters can adjust accordingly. Projections: 282 rushes, 1,316 yds, 21 rec, 178 yds, 12 TD Thanks for reading, and stay tuned for rankings 11-20 and positional rankings in the coming days.
Plus500 (LON:PLUS) – a good hedge against the return of volatility
As volatility is set to return to the market, Plus500, with a current beta of -0.33, could be a logically-sound hedge against board market risk whilst adding capital gain potential as well as diversification benefit to the total portfolio, as it has already shown over the past few months. Why (and What is) Plus500 The first time I came across with Plus500 (LON:PLUS) was during a UEFA Champions League game (European soccer competition) between Atletico Madrid and Barcelona that I watched a few years ago where they were (and still are) the jersey sponsor for Atletico Madrid (a top Spanish soccer club for anyone who doesn’t follow soccer). From their brand name it was hard for me me to figure out what Plus500 does, which I later found out that not only they are a one of the largest online trading platforms in Europe for CFD, spread betting and other financial assets (including cryptocurrency), but also a listed company on London Stock Exchange. And then it all made sense to me why Plus500 would choose to advertise their services through a soccer club: there are many commonalities between both soccer fields and financial markets: the ever-changing situations, the fast pace dynamics, and large volume of boisterous spectators that are ever-present. Plus500 is an international financial firm providing online trading services in contracts for difference (CFDs), across more than 2,000 securities and multiple asset classes. Heightened market volatility (again) could further boosted Plus500's growth Ever-changing situations, fast-paced dynamics and large volume of boisterous spectators are indeed what characterised the global financial markets in the first half of 2020. Following the surprising V-shaped recovery from the market bottom in late March, Stocks retreated over the past few weeks as the global markets are gearing up toward another period of heightened volatility. The VIX index had a noticeable pick up over recent weeks (see charts below) as more and more confirmed COVID-19 cased were being reported following the ease of the lockdowns as well as recent protests both in the US and aboard. In addition to a looming second wave of COVID-19, there are several other potential risk factors, such as Trade conflicts between US and Europe and the upcoming Presidential election, which could significantly influence investor’s confidence over the stock markets and stimulate more tug of wars between the bulls and the bears of the markets on a day-to-day basis. VIX index - Risk is gradually returning Source: Refinitiv Eikon Uncertainty triggers volatility, and Plus500 is certainly one of the a few companies that make money from this directly. The stock has performed very strongly this year (+52% YTD) relative to the board UK stock market (FTSE down by 18.3% YTD) thanks to the record level of trading activities by its customers. It also added more than 82,000 and 100,000 new customers in Q1 and Q2 respectively which exceeded their expectations for both quarters. Plus500 stock price since 2018 Source: Refinitiv Eikon There are other reasons to stay optimistic about the stocks: Plus500’s business operation is reasonably well diversified in terms of geographical location (see chart below). It’s also fairly cash rich for company of its size. Plus500 has a negative net debt of over $287 million in the current financial year and a projected free cash flow yield of 31.6% in 2021, which means they are unlikely to face any potentially significant liquidity concerns which often can cause businesses to go bankrupt (such as the position Wirecard find themselves in this week). Furthermore, Plus500’s shareholder returns policy is to return at least 60% of net profits to shareholders, through a combination of dividends and share buybacks, with at least 50% of this distribution being made by way of dividends. Its current dividend yield of 4% p.a. will be particularly appealing to incoming seeking investors. https://preview.redd.it/6jmjv7vrnp751.png?width=3006&format=png&auto=webp&s=21b337a2a456932577b586bebc72c5931cba28d2 Source: Refinitiv Eikon Plus500 stock profile Source: Genuine Impact Another Wirecard situation? Ultimately the stock’s future price momentum will dependent upon the sustainability of the market volatility as well as uncertainties in regulatory landscapes. As showed in the chart earlier Plus500’s business operation spreads over several jurisdictions and they are authorised and regulated by the market regulators in the UK, Cyprus, Australia, Singapore and Israel, which means that any change and update in regulatory framework concerning CFDs or other financial instruments will likely to significantly affect Plus500’s business operation and influence market expectations on their future revenue and growth. Rewinding the clock to February 2019 its stock price more than halved over a two-week period, when the Australian market regulator announced restrictions in CFD trading rules which adversely affected Plus500’s profitability. Similar regulatory uncertainties in the future could easily cause its stock profit to slump. It’s also worth noting that Plus500 also had its fair share of accounting controversy in the past. One incident was that in its 2017 Annual Report, Plus500 announced that they did not generate net revenues or losses from market P&L in 2017. However in February 2019 the company issued a contradictory report stating that it had incurred a $103 million loss from client trading activity in the 2017 financial year, causing investors to cast doubts over the credibility of their published financials and their stock prices to plummet. Investors and regulators are likely to be more sensitive and aggressive than ever toward these kind of accounting irregularities for any public company after the Wirecard case. Analysts upgraded their 2021 and 2022 revenue projections Source: Refinitiv Eikon Agree to disagree The market seems to hold a slip view on the stock. As a matter of fact the four broker analysts that provide research coverage on Plus500 cannot have a less divided opinion on its outlook which is reflected in the ratings they give out (one strong buy, one hold, one sell and one strong sell) and range of target prices they’ve set (£6.65 - £21.38, current price at £13.01). However, over the past few months there appears to be a consensus amongst these analysts on the stock’s future growth momentum as they all lifted their 2021 and 2022 revenue projection for Plus500 (see chart above), thanks to the increasing trading volume and customer growth over the past few months. Their average revenue projections for 2021 was $365 million back in March 2020, and has now been lifted to $574 million for the same period, representing a 57% increase (roughly in line with the stock's YTD performance). This upward momentum is likely to continue if volatility resumes in the coming weeks. Like their competitors in the sector, Plus500’s financial performance this year will be dependent, among other things, on the global financial market conditions providing sufficient trading opportunities for customers. Thanks for reading my post and I appreciate any feedback and comments! Stay safe and all the best with your investments.
With the season (hopefully) on the way I thought I'd put together some lists for top 5 players at each position in Indianapolis (not Baltimore) Colts history. I'll start with QB, and work my way through. This list is purely my opinion as a die hard fan since the early Manning days, and if you think I have no clue what I'm talking about, please feel free to let me know. Fun fact, out of the 26 QBs to start a game for the Indy Colts there are only 7 players that have a winning record. Three of them are Colts legends Josh Freeman, Gary Hogeboom, and Craig Erickson.
After the complete disaster that was attempting to draft John Elway #1 in 1983, the then Baltimore Colts stuck with Mike Pagel at QB, who had just led them to a winless season in 1982. Team owner Robert Irsay decided to move the team to Indianapolis before the 1984 season the team stuck with Pagel as their main QB despite him clearly not being their future at the position. This led to 2 season with losing records and last place finishes in the AFC East. Entering the 1986 draft, the Colts were clearly looking for a franchise player at QB. The obvious choice was Jim Everett out of Purdue, but unfortunately he was selected #3 to the Houston Oilers when the Colts had the #4 pick. Instead of drafting the only other franchise QB in the draft, Mark Rypien, the Colts decided to select promising Illinois QB Jack Trudeau in the 2nd round. Trudeau had shown a lot of promise in his career, leading Illinois to a Rose Bowl in 1984 and finishing 2nd in the Davey O'Brien Award (Best College QB) to Doug Flutie. Unfortunately for him and the Colts, this talent would not translate well to the NFL
Colts Career
After trading Mike Pagel to the Browns the starting job was set for Trudeau entering the 1986 season. Unfortunately the Colts were still a very bad team overall and Trudeau was not set to overcome that. In 11 starts he had 8 TDs, 18 INTs, and a 48.9% completion rate for an 0-11 record. It was immediately clear he was not the savior the Colts needed to bring legitimate football to Indy. Fortunately, a contract dispute between Hall of Fame RB Eric Dickerson allowed the Colts to trade for Dickerson midway through the 1987 season. Dickerson was an immediate breath of life to the fledgling Indianapolis Colts franchise and helped lead them to their first playoff berth. Trudeau shared starting duties with Gary Hogeboom, and both were successful in not screwing things up too bad, giving the ball to Dickerson, and staying out of the damn way. Trudeau started in his only playoff game and actually played decently well: 251 yards, 2 TDs, and 1 INT, but it wasn't enough as the Colts lost 38-21 to the Bernie Kosar led Cleveland Browns who would eventually lose in via "The Drive" in the AFC Championship. It was clear the Colts would need a better QB to compliment their new superstar in Dickerson, and thus they drafted future Pro Bowler Chris Chandler in the 3rd round in 1988. However, Chris Chandler was most definitely not a Pro Bowler for the Colts. Chandler didn't impress despite an 9-7 overall record, and was replaced by Trudeau following a bad start to the 1989 season. Trudeau had his best year as a pro in 1989: 2,317 yards, 15 TDs, 13 INTs, but the Colts still finished 8-8 and outside of the playoffs. Trudeau was improving, but was still clearly not the QB of the future, which they hoped to get by trading All-Pro Tackle Chris Hinton, Future All-Pro WR Andre Rison, and the #3 Pick in 1991 for the #1 Pick in 1990 which they used to draft QB Jeff George (Wow). Trudeau was kept as the backup and was a spot starter for the Colts from 1990-93. Despite the horrific play of George, Trudeau couldn't muster much better in his limited playing time and was released in 1994.
Jack Trudeau was at best a mediocre QB you could somewhat rely on to manage the game and allow more talented players to make plays. Unfortunately the late 80s, early 90s Colts didn't have too many of those so his play suffered as well. His numbers aren't great and he wasn't much beloved by Colts fans, but he did help lead the Colts to their first playoff appearance which helped me put him on the list over Matt Hasselbeck and others. Trudeau has actually hung around Indy doing various radio and TV appearances talking about the Colts and even has a couple of DUIs as well.
The Colts had their franchise QB in Andrew Luck, but leading up to the 2017 season it was revealed during the preseason Luck had a shoulder injury which would eventually lead to him missing the entire 2017 season. This left the Colts scrambling as they knew QB Scott Tolzien was not the answer at QB, so 8 days before the start of the season the new GM Chris Ballard traded 1st round bust Phillip Dorsett for 3rd string QB for the Patriots Jacoby Brissett. Brissett had looked at least competent spot starting for the suspended Tom Brady and hurt Jimmy Garoppolo in 2016, so he was the best option the Colts had available so close to the beginning of the season.
Colts Career
Bringing in a new QB for a team 8 days before the start of the season and asking him to play is like asking a train engineer to launch a rocket to the moon, so Tolzien started week 1 for Colts. He continued to not impress going into week 2, and was replaced for Brissett. Brissett was an improvement, but it was clear he was overwhelmed by the change of scenery and the rest of the Colts roster and staff was not talented enough to make up for it. He finished with competent numbers: 3,098 yards, 13 TDs, 7 INTs, 58.8% completion rate, 6.6 Y/A, but was merely a game manager for a bad team as the Colts finished 4-12. Andrew Luck was ready to return in 2018 and the Colts were willing to give Brissett the benefit of the doubt and kept him on as the backup. The Colts saw a major resurgence with Luck and an incredible draft and free agent class by Chris Ballard, leading to their first playoff appearance since 2015, eventually losing to the Patrick Mahomes led Chiefs. The Colts were looking to improve going into 2019, but a now too familiar announcement led up to the season when it was revealed a calf injury was going to cause Andrew Luck to retire 2 weeks before the start of the regular season. The spotlight was once again shown on Jacoby Brissett, who was asked to take over Luck's team. Fortunately this time Brissett was able to get all the first team reps in the preseason leading up to week 1 and was much more familiar with the system. That familiarity paid off as Brissett led the Colts to a 5-2 start, including wins over playoff teams like the Texans and Titans along with the eventual Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs. Brissett was not putting up All-Pro numbers, but had clearly improved from 2017 and was still not making game losing mistakes. Through week 9 he had 190 YPG, 11 TDs, and 6 INTs, and and the eye test had shown he was a good leader and could occasionally make big plays when needed. However, after a knee sprain in week 10 he was clearly not the same player. His injury either hampered his physical abilities or his confidence but his poor play for the rest of the season allowed the Colts to fall to 7-9, including an embarrassing 34-7 loss to the Saints that I made the trip over to New Orleans for and watched as Brissett sailed the ball over every receiver's head. Brissett will likely be the backup for the 2020 season behind free agent Phillip Rivers, but he's shown enough flashes of ability that his career is long from over, whether that ends up being on the Colts or somewhere else in the league.
I believe I'm with the majority of Colts fans in that when I see Jacoby Brissett I see somewhat of a tragic figure. He got thrown to the wolves in 2017 and did the best he could, but was basically set up to fail. It's honestly not too much of a stretch to say his play through week 9 of 2019 was the best QB play by an Indy Colts QB not named Manning, Luck, or Harbaugh. You could tell he was well-liked by both fans and teammates, especially through the first half of 2019, but his limitations as a player were clear. Colts fans have been spoiled in the 21st century by 2 all-time great QBs, so any deviation from that, especially when it's not by a QB we drafted #1 overall, will be seen as a major failure. I think people came down a little too hard on Jacoby by the end of 2019, and that he's still a solid pro capable of being the QB on a winning team in the right situation. However, he showed in the 2nd half of 2019 that situation is probably not in Indy going forward.
The Colts had come out of the Eric Dickerson/Jeff George era looking like an absolute dumpster fire. The Colts had been in Indy for 10 years and Indy was still very much a basketball town. The only signature player the Indy Colts had was Eric Dickerson, and he had a very sour exit in 1992 after 2 bad years. The Indianapolis Colts were still in the woods, searching for the player that could give their franchise hope that they would be treated as a legitimate threat in the NFL and generate significant interest from the fanbase. That hope came from an unlikely source in Jim Harbaugh. Harbaugh had led the Chicago Bears to 2 playoff appearances in the late Mike Ditka-era, but his play had fallen off and by 1994 he looked somewhat washed. The desperate Colts made a surprisingly wise decision in not drafting QBs Heath Schuler or Trent Dilfer. Instead they drafted future Hall of Fame RB Marshall Faulk to replace Eric Dickerson (this is the "Who the hell is Mel Kiper?" draft) and signing Jim Harbaugh.
Colts Career
Harbaugh didn't come out guns blazing in 1994 as he traded starting duties with Green Bay castoff Don Majkowski. Harbaugh put up decent numbers but the Colts finished 4-5 in games Harbaugh started, 8-8 overall. Harbaugh entered the 1995 season as no sure thing, the Colts actually traded their 1996 first round pick for young Tampa QB Craig Erickson in another baffling trade for an unproven QB. Erickson and Harbaugh competed for the starting position in training camp and Erickson was selected as the starter by head coach Ted Marchibroda. Erickson played poorly the first 2 weeks, being replaced and outplayed by Harbaugh in both games. By week 3 Harbaugh was the full time starter and didn't look back. Harbaugh was showing that he meshed well with new Offensive Coordinator Lindy Infante as Harbaugh put up some of the most efficient passing numbers of any QB in the NFL in 1995: 2,575 yards, 17 TDs, 5 INTs, 63.7% completion rate, and a league leading passer rating of 100.7 (ahead of guys like Brett Favre, Troy Aikman, Steve Young, and Dan Marino). Even more importantly he was a becoming the tough effective leader to energize the entire team, leading the Colts to 4 game winning drives that season, including one over the 1994 Super Bowl champion 49ers. The Colts were just outside of the playoffs going into week 17, but Harbaugh led the Colts to a win over the Drew Bledsoe led Patriots in the RCA Dome to sneak the Colts into the playoffs at 9-7. Harbaugh earned his first Pro Bowl appearance along with NFL Comeback Player of the Year. The Colts were going into the playoffs as 5.5 point underdogs against the San Diego Chargers, a team they had just lost to in week 16. However, thanks to 3 TDs from Harbaugh and an out-of-nowhere 147 yard, 2 TD performance from rookie FB Zach Crockett, the Colts overcame the odds. They were heading into a gauntlet of Arrowhead stadium against the best defense in the league and a Marcus Allen led 13-3 Kansas City Chiefs. In an ugly game where the wind chill was -15oF, luck worked in the Colts favor. Harbaugh didn't throw well, but picked up several key 1st down with his legs. He had 1 INT and 3 fumbles, but fortunately lost 0. Chiefs QB Steve Bono had 3 INTs and K Lin Elliot went 0/3 on field goals in a season where he made 80%. Colts K Cary Blanchard made 1/3, and that was enough to upset the heavily-favored Chiefs 10-7. Harbaugh's most defining moment as the Colts QB would come in the AFC Championship against the Pittsburgh Steelers. Harbaugh's cinderella story continued on against Bill Cowher and Neil O'Donnell's Steelers. The Colts and Steelers traded scores throughout the game. With 8 minutes left in the 4th quarter, Harbaugh threw a dime to WR Floyd Turner for a 47 yard touchdown to put the Colts up 16-13. Unfortunately the Colts couldn't run out enough clock on their next drive and the Steelers rushed down the field for the go-ahead score to put them up 20-16. Harbaugh wasn't done yet. With 88 seconds needing 84 yards, Harbaugh willed the Colts down the field to the Steelers' 29-yard line for a hail mary shot with 5 seconds left. Harbaugh tossed up a prayer that was very nearly caught by Colts WR Aaron Bailey, but he couldn't come up with it. The Cinderella story was over, but it was a defining moment for the Colts franchise. The 1995 Colts were within a hair of making the Super Bowl, and that 1995 playoff run led by Harbaugh created a real fanbase for them. Harbaugh's stats regressed some in 1996, but he still led the Colts to a 9-7 record and the playoffs, this time getting whooped by the Steelers in the wild card. In 1997 his stats improved some but the wheels fell off of the team as they started off 0-10, eventually falling to 3-13. Fortunately their record would net them the #1 pick in the 1998 draft. After it was clear the Colts were using the pick on QB they traded Harbaugh to the Ravens.
“A lot of people use (the word) ‘culture,’ but the attitude, everybody was team-first, from the front office, together with the coaches, together with the ownership, together with the players, the equipment staff, the training staff, I mean it felt like we were family.” - Jim Harbaugh on 1995 I don't think enough can be said about the effect of Harbaugh and that 1995 team had on the Colts. He gave us our first source of pride in the Colts and set the tone for the franchise to not be the laughingstock of the league. He paved the way for the decades of excellence that came after. Harbaugh will never be a HoF QB, but his effect on the Colts is severely underrated. For more details on the 1995 Cinderella season, read this IndyStar article: https://www.indystar.com/story/sports/nfl/colts/2016/01/21/1995-indianapolis-colts-jim-harbaugh-aaron-bailey-afc-championship-game-ted-marchibroda/78291676/
After a serious neck injury to franchise stalwart Peyton Manning, the Colts went from perennial playoff contender to nearly winless in 2011. It was unknown if Manning would ever be the same QB again, so the Colts opted to release their most valuable player and use their #1 pick in 2012 on a QB. There was some debate on possibly drafting the Heisman winner out of Baylor, Robert Griffin III, but new GM Ryan Grigson made no doubt in the fact that he was drafting Andrew Luck. Son of former Oilers QB Oliver Luck, Andrew Luck blossomed under head coach Jim Harbaugh to revitalize the Stanford football program while also graduating with a bachelor's degree in architectural design. Luck was hailed by nearly every scout as a can't miss prospect, having nearly every physical tool you want from a QB along with a clear handle on the mental and intangible aspects of the game.
Colts Career
Expectations for Luck were high going into 2012, but not so for the team overall. Many experts put the Colts at or near the bottom of all power rankings. Not only had the team lost Peyton Manning that year, but also many key pieces from the Manning era such as Pierre Garçon, Joseph Addai, Dallas Clark, Jeff Saturday, and Gary Brackett. To make matters worse, new head coach Chuck Pagano was diagnosed with leukemia and missed weeks 5-16. However, despite all odds, Luck led the Colts to an 11-5 record. Interim Head Coach Bruce Arians proved to be a diamond in the rough by helping Luck turn a 2-14 team that lost multiple starters into a playoff team. Luck's stats weren't always pretty: 23 TDs, 18 INTs, 54.1% completion rate, and a 76.5 rating, but he could clearly make plays happen with an absurd 7 game winning drives. The miracles came to an end with a shellacking by the eventual Super Bowl champion Baltimore Ravens in the playoffs, but this season proved Luck would be no bust, he was a force to be reckoned with. Luck continued to grow in 2013 and 2014, improving in every category to crescendo in 2014 with a league-leading 40 TDs, 16 INTs, 61.7% completion rate, and a 96.5 rating. In 2013 he led the Colts to his first playoff victory in spectacular fashion. After being down 38-10 early in the 3rd quarter to the Alex Smith led Chiefs, Luck led a furious and unbelievable comeback 45-44 victory. Any Colts fan could tell you after seeing all the comeback victories Luck had led to never count him out, and he cemented that in this game. In 2014 Luck led the Colts past their old god of Peyton Manning in Denver in the divisional round, but were given a thorough ass-whooping in the AFC Championship by the soon-to-be Super Bowl champions New England Patriots in what is now infamously known as the "Deflategate Game." Andrew Luck was a very physical player and was known to take many hits, sometimes making spectacular plays through those hits. However, that punishment started to pile up and wasn't helped by GM Ryan Grigson's poor draft classes and inability to build a competent offensive line to block for Luck. This culminated in the injury plagued 2015 and 2016 seasons. Luck only played 7 games in 2015 and severely regressed in every statistical category, clearly hampered by various injuries such as a lacerated kidney. Luck's stats improved in 2016, but the team did not as they finished 8-8, partially due to an astounding 7% sack of Luck. Either some of Luck's good fortune had finally run out or the team and culture built by GM Grigson had completely failed to support their superstar QB. Owner Jim Irsay bet on Luck and fired Grigson after 2016. Hopes were high heading into 2017, but unfortunately an unknown snowboarding accident aggravated a previous shoulder injury for Luck. News was very slow to come out, but fans were shocked to find out he would likely miss the entire season 8 days before week 1. New GM Chris Ballard made a quick trade for Jacoby Brissett, but fans were worried after 3 years of being hampered by injuries Luck may never be the same player. In 2018 we believed those doubts were proven wrong. Luck had an incredibly resurgent season, leading the new look Colts back into the playoffs for the first time since 2014 with a 10-6 record. Luck's numbers were back to form: 39 TDs, 15 INTs, and career bests of 67.3% completion rate and 98.7 rating. Fans were pleased to finally see Luck playing behind a solid offensive line that prevented which prevented him from being sacked for 5 weeks and giving him a career low 2.7% sack rate. Luck led the Colts to a Wild Card win over the Deshaun Watson's Texans, but were stopped in the cold in Arrowhead against Patrick Mahomes' Chiefs. However, hopes were high leading into 2019 that the structure given by GM Chris Ballard would protect Luck and allow him to lead us to our Super Bowl. Sadly that did not work out as Luck appeared to have a calf injury leading up to the 2019 season. Fans held out hope he would be ready to go for the start of the season, but after the years of rehabbing Luck had finally had enough. 2 weeks before the season opener during a preseason game against the Chicago Bears it was leaked that Luck planned to retire. Fortunately his backup Jacoby Brissett was put in a better position to take his place as opposed to 2017, but the sudden and unexplained retirement of their franchise QB right before the season led to some fans to boo Luck as he left the field at Lucas Oil Stadium for the last time.
Andrew Luck will forever be one of the greatest "what if?" stories in American sports history. Unlike many "what if?" stories, we got to see what we could have had with Luck. What the Colts had in Luck from 2012-14 along with 2018 was nothing short of incredible and it was clear he was improving to potentially become one of the greatest QBs in NFL history. Instead he's a tragic story where fans will forever be left to wonder what could have been with Andrew Luck. Would Luck have brought the Colts back to the Super Bowl if he he didn't play the majority of his career under the poor management of GM Ryan Grigson and HC Chuck Pagano? All we do know is that his sack rate under Grigson was 5.5%, and in one year on GM Chris Ballard's team it was 2.7%, coincidentally also one of his best statistical seasons. Peyton Manning's sack rate for his career? Tied for the NFL record with Dan Marino at 3.13%. Maybe if Luck had been better protected and coached better to avoid hits he could have made it up there with Manning, but as fans he'll forever be a "what if?" Luck seems like a smart and content man who's just starting a family, so I doubt he will ever return for any team. Even if he did we'll forever be robbed of what the best version of Andrew Luck could have been. However, in his short time here, he delivered enough incredible moments to give us hope and make us love the team. I, along with hopefully many other fans, will forever love Andrew Luck for his time with the Colts and am grateful for a helluva run.
The Indianapolis Colts under Jim Harbaugh had finally established themselves as a legitimate team, but the Colts knew Harbaugh wasn't the long-term answer at QB. He was 35 going into the 1998 season and had just led the Colts to a 3-13 season, bad enough for the #1 overall pick. There was some debate about drafting Heisman finalist out of Washington, Ryan Leaf, but new GM Bill Polian made no doubt in the fact that he was drafting Peyton Manning. Leaf had some incredible athletic abilities, but there were some doubts raised about his ability to handle the mental aspects of the game. He also basically made the decision for the Colts when he skipped their draft interview, a passive-aggressive declaration he wouldn't play for the Colts. Peyton Manning, son of former Saints QB Archie Manning, was also a Heisman finalist out of Tennessee. No scout doubted Manning's ability to become a franchise QB in the NFL, but some wondered about his potential ceiling due to a complete lack of running ability and some arm strength concerns. However, he was clearly one of the most mature and mentally ready players to ever come out of college for any position. "I'll leave you with this thought. If you take me, I promise you we will win a championship. If you don't, I promise I'll come back and kick your ass" -Peyton Manning to Colts GM Bill Polian on the day before the 1998 draft
Colts Career
The 1998 Colts were still a pretty bad team overall, and the rookie Manning was not enough to overcome that. He had one of the best statistical rookie seasons ever: 3,739 yards, 26 TDs, 28 INTs, 6.5 Y/A, and a 56.7% completion rate, setting records for yards, TDs, and INTs (yards and TDs are currently held by Andrew Luck and Baker Mayfield respectively). However, the deficiencies of the team and Manning's record number of interceptions helped give the Colts a 3-13 record, including a week 5 win over Ryan Leaf's San Diego Chargers. Fortunately Manning helped lead one of the biggest turnarounds in NFL history in 1999, turning the 3-13 Colts in 1998 into the 13-3 Colts in 1999. People weren't exactly ready to give up on Manning after 1998, but 1999 was critical for showing Manning could improve and be at the helm of a winning team. Partially this was helped by sending Hall of Fame RB Marshall Faulk to St. Louis in exchange for the draft pick to select Hall of Fame RB Edgerrin James, who had a phenomenal rookie year. The Colts ended up losing to the Tennessee Titans in the playoffs, who had just completed the Music City Miracle the week before and would come within an ass hair of winning the Super Bowl against the Greatest Show on Turf St. Louis Rams. Manning was up and down from 2000 to 2002, still posting good stats but missing the playoffs in 2001 ( https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-oSFYxDGKy8 ) and having first round exits in 2000 and 2002. Whispers started turning into legitimate arguments about how Peyton Manning was a good stats, dome team, regular season QB that just didn't have it in the playoffs. In 2003 Manning started his absurd streak of 12+ win seasons (7 years) and picked up his first MVP award, the first (and still only) Indy Colt to win it. He also got his first playoff wins in 2003, but was quickly put to shame in a 4 INT performance in the AFC Championship against the Patriots, now known by Colts fans as "The Ty Law Game." The 2004 season is well known by Colts fans for cementing Manning among the all time greats. Manning was white hot all year, throwing for 4,557 yards 49 TDs, 10 INTs, and a 121.1 rating while only getting sacked 13 times. The 49 TDs was a record, which has since been broken by Tom Brady and Manning again while a member of the Broncos. Manning won MVP for the 2nd year in a row, but once again disappointed in the playoffs with a 0 TD, 1 INT performance against the Patriots in the divisional round, losing 20-3. Those arguments of Manning's postseason jitters were starting to feel more and more like reality for Colts fans. They knew they had their franchise QB, but his inability to perform in the playoffs continued to be baffling. 2005 was supposed to be the season that changed all that. Manning's numbers came back to earth somewhat, but he still posted a very efficient performance (104.1 rating) for a much improved overall team. GM Bill Polian had proved his days building the "Four Falls over Buffalo" Bills dynasty was no fluke, he now had a team with the #2 scoring offense and the #2 scoring defense. This was the year to break the Manning postseason curse. Unfortunately in one of the most upsetting games of my life, the Colts could not break that curse against the Steelers in the divisional round. Manning played relatively well: 58% completion rate, 290 yards, and 1 TD with no INTs, but watching the game the Colts struggled to maintain momentum and get stops against the rookie Ben Roethlisberger. Despite the inconsistent play, the Colts still had a shot. Steelers HoF RB Jerome Bettis attempted to ice the game with a goal line carry, but fumbled for the first time all year. With the entire Steelers offense stuffing the line, Colts CB Nick Harper was free to pick up the ball with a nearly open field ahead of him. Normally Nick Harper is one of the faster players on the field, however, as every Colts fan knows, Harper had been stabbed in the leg by his wife in a "supposedly accidental" altercation the night before. This possibly allowed the falling down Ben Roethlisberger to catch Harper by his shoe strings, preventing the nearly sure thing TD by Harper to put the Colts ahead. Instead Manning led the Colts into basically chip shot field goal position for one of the most accurate kickers in NFL history (Mike "Idiot Kicker" Vanderjagt) to tie the game. We all know what happened next. It was a shocking loss to say the least, and it was hard to blame it all on Manning, but it still felt like there was some sort of mystical VooDoo curse hanging over Manning and our franchise. If the Colts couldn't win it all in 2005 it felt like they never would. 2006 wasn't looking like anything special compared to the past few seasons, especially considering the defense regressed from #2 in scoring in 2005 to #23 in 2006. Manning was still putting up great numbers, but those were starting to feel like an exercise in futility. Fortunately the Colts caught fire at the right time, with oft-injured All-Pro Safety Bob Sanders getting healthy towards the end of the season and the trade deadline addition of Buccaneers DT "Booger" McFarland. That momentum pushed them to an AFC Championship, where Manning would match up against the source of his ultimate playoff failures, Tom Brady and the New England Patriots. Fortunately, this time it was in the RCA Dome, not Foxborogh, MA. Manning and the Colts started off cold, being down 21-3 at one point after a Manning pick-6, but the Colts rallied behind some incredibly orchestrated drives by Manning to finally get the monkey off his back. On a last second drive, Manning drove the Colts down the field to put them ahead 38-34 with 1 minute to go. A Marlin Jackson interception of Tom Brady sealed it, Manning and the Colts were going to the Super Bowl for the first time in Indy history. Manning played well in the Super Bowl, winning the MVP against the league-best Chicago Bears defense. Manning continued his solid play in 2007 and 2008, including his 3rd MVP in 2008. Both seasons ended with heartbreaking first round playoff exits to the San Diego Chargers, 2008's being the "Sproles and Scifres Game." 2008 also showed the first signs of physical weakness from Manning, having a knee surgery before the season that led to a slow start for the Colts. That was not the case in 2009, as Manning led the Colts to start the season 14-0. In a decision that's still derided today, new head coach Jim Caldwell decided to effectively bench Manning along with many other starters rather than go for the perfect season to prevent any injuries. Many had seen the Patriots in 2007 nearly complete the perfect season, but fall in heartbreaking fashion in the Super Bowl against a less talented Giants team. Caldwell, like many others, decided that any rust from not playing for nearly a month was worth the decreased risk of injury to his stars. That decision nearly backfired in spectacular fashion as the Colts were behind the New York Jets (a team they effectively let into the playoffs by letting them win in week 16) in the AFC Championship game until Manning led a furious comeback. It all ended poorly in the Super Bowl however as Manning threw a pick-6 to Tracy Porter that still haunts my dreams to Tracy Porter, allowing the Colts to lose to Drew Brees and his stupid baby and the New Orleans Saints. 2010 was one of the first signs of weakness from Manning. He had apparently injured his neck on this play in 2006 ( https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9gjdmww3vgM ) on a hit that would now be extremely illegal. Manning apparently aggravated that injury in the lead up to the 2010 season, and it showed in the stats as he had how lowest rating since 2002 (91.9). For most other QBs a rating of 91.9 is a pretty solid season but for Manning it was a massive fall. This led to a quick playoff exit to the Jets in the first round. In the lead up to the 2011 season, Manning had several surgeries to relieve the pain in his neck which led to him missing the entire season. It was unknown if he would ever be the same QB again, or even play again. Manning's absence showed how incredibly important he was to the franchise, the only major difference between the rosters in 2010 and 2011 is Manning, yet the Colts went 10-6 in 2010 and 2-14 in 2011. This poor record led to the Colts earning the #1 pick in the 2012 draft, which fueled their decision to release Manning and draft a QB in 2012 (Chandler Harnish...and Andrew Luck).
"Fellas, if 18 goes down, we're fucked, and we don't practice fucked." -Offensive Coordinator Tom Moore on why the backup QBs don't get more reps Nothing to me cements Peyton Manning's role in Indy as much as this quote. Even his first 5 years before he became an all-time great, that was still the best sustained stretch of QB play in Indy Colts history. Once he ascended to another level in 2003, it was clear we needed to put every egg we could find into his basket. Manning was the perfect franchise QB: a steady presence on and off the field, consistent delivery of either incredible numbers or game winning performances (usually both), and he made nearly everyone else on the team a better player. His drive and commitment to team victory made him the guy every franchise needs if they want to field a consistently great team. Peyton had somewhat of an authoritarian leadership style, my way or the highway, but you can do that when you show that you're willing and able to give every ounce of yourself to the team and deliver the kind of results that he can. I think some people are disappointed in the Manning Era considering how historically great his stats are but he was 1-1 in Super Bowls in 12 years here. Honestly I think that's not too far off for any all-time QB. Drew Brees is 1-0, Brett Favre is 1-1, Aaron Rodgers is 1-0, Fran Tarkenton is 0-3, Jim Kelly is 0-4, Dan Marino is 0-1, all of these guys are all-time great franchise QBs but it's not abnormal for them to only win 1 or lose several. There are some exceptions: Tom Brady (6-3), Joe Montana (4-0), Terry Bradshaw (4-0), and Troy Aikman (3-0), but honestly you could trade any of the former QBs for Terry Bradshaw and they would also probably be 4-0. There's lots of luck in every playing career, and some get luckier than others. The only season I'd say the Colts were "robbed" of a Super Bowl is 2005, otherwise I think Manning's Colts career went about as good as it could have. Honorable Mentions: Matt Hasselbeck (5-3 record, probably our best backup ever) and Dan Orlovsky (just for saving us from a completely defeated season). Dishonorable Mentions: Jeff George and Kerry Collins (being very bad at QB isn't very uncommon for Indy Colts QBs, but these guys were so bad and toxic they dragged down the abilities of everyone on the team and are actively hated by most fans)
Tea Leaves, QE and Int'l demand for the dollar. Why Printing Money won't cause inflation yet and how it delays the next leg. Warning: words, words, words, very boring, tl:dr at bottom.
Previous post: https://www.reddit.com/wallstreetbets/comments/gbsyfk/tea_leaves_and_trade_wars_good_for_a_free_15_just/ This post is long, very long. Tl:dr at the bottom. Where have the daily posts been lately? Well, we're still well within our original parameters, and volume continues to provide choppy earnings, but generally trending our margins of expected up/down. I'm trying to put up posts a couple/few days at a time, unless there is something specifically that needs to be discussed that affects the prediction model. If its a 'nothing special' day, I likely won't be posting. Worth noting, volume continues to be low after getting roused over the weekend, likely a result of Trumps remarks about retaliating against China. The "ups" were at 75-85m before that, and the last two days have been around the same area. Interestingly, today sideways move was very, very low, coming in at only 53.1M as of 0332PM EST, and 72.5m at closing. When volume is low, movement is very choppy, see the pre/post market for good examples. Scalp at your own risk. Something that we need to make clear, is that our debt based economy (which we've had ever since we stopped balancing the federal budget) is based on the very obvious Ponzi scheme of "kick the can down the road", or "we promise we'll balance the debt next year, but we need our stuff now". The balancing never comes, and the can gets a little bigger each time. The United States doesn't make enough in tax revenue to pay its bills, period. In a regular year, without beer flu or killer hornets, we're borrowing every year. Eventually, this was gonna crash if we didn't pay it down and start balancing the budget, which is not an American priority. How is this financed, if we don't pay enough taxes? Each year the USA takes out loans, via the selling of various bond type vehicles, to pay for its missing budget gap. Like a Ponzi scheme, this eventually collapses, as the US Gov't needs to use our tax dollars, which it already doesn't have enough of, to service these bonds. How does it use our tax dollars to service bonds, if it already doesn't have enough tax dollars? Why, just sell more bonds, silly! You know, like using a new credit card to pay last months credit card bill. What could go wrong? We've been doing this for many decades, building up the debt you read about. Bonds are basically payed out two ways. Longer term bonds (like the 30 year) pay out every six months, at some rate that is set based on rates at the time of the issuing (30 year bonds generally have the highest interest rate, because they require the longest investment period). Additionally, they payout face value + any outstanding interest owed on the bond at maturity (expiration) . If the bond doesn't have an as-you-go interest payment, than the holder collects all of the accrued interest of the bond at maturity. There are some other small nuances, but this is the general "how they work". The payments every 6 months are a large portion of what I refer to when I say "servicing the debt". We were at 23T in debt in OCT 2019, and we're taking on 10T+ for this crisis. If we calculated 25T at the current 30 year rate of 1.24% (obviously it'll be not this simple, some is higher, some is lower, and we'll need to see the balance sheet and bond info to calculate properly), that would mean every 6 months we paid: 310,000,000,000 or 310B, or 620B per year, just in interest. It adds up. Why does this matter? Bonds are payed out in US currency. The strength of the US Bond is that it is revered around the world as the safest investment you could make. This gives the USA access to liquidity from other countries, and political power as the 'reserve' currency. It also helps establish the dollar as a "strong" currency, which is actually *not* always a good thing for international trading, for reasons such as it isn't always as profitable for other weaker nations to trade with us when their dollar isn't as good as ours, resulting in unfavorable rates for them. This actually reduces the amount of trade we have access to as a by-product. While we're on topic, the amount of bond selling the USA does to generate liquidity is what you hear about being referred to as the 'debt ceiling'. If we don't raise the debt ceiling, we can't sell bonds (get loans) to other entities to pay our bills. Currently the debt ceiling is suspended, allowing us to go into the hole as much as we want, which further reinforces the Feds "infinite QE" position. If the debt the USA is required to service is too great, than our own tax dollars will be doing nothing but paying interest on these credit card bills. Any anyone that has ever juggled that before can tell you, it eventually fails. What happens if the USA defaults? Many, many bad things. A lot of the value of US currency is specifically tied to the trust that the USA will never default. We'd see an immediate deep depression, if we're not already there, and currency would hyper-inflate in an extremely short amount of time, as demand for the dollar would immediately drop, dropping its value. Trump deciding to "not pay on our Chinese debt in retaliation for CV19" would be disastrous for our economy, and the world economy. We'd be extremely likely to lose our status as the 'reserve' currency of the world, which could fall to any other strong currency. What was discovered, however, in the crash of 2008, is that Quantitative Easing (QE) doesn't cause hyper inflation when the dollar remains strong during a worldwide recession. That is, because the dollar IS the reserve currency, nations in turmoil seek to flock to it for safety, driving up its 'value', and countering the effects of inflation. When currency is hoarded by the nations flocking to it, world trade goes down significantly, driving up prices on goods and services, just as it had the affect here locally when banks hoarded the QE cash in 2008 rather than loaning it out as intended. Simply put, 'too scared to spend, but desperate to hoard' keeps the dollar from inflating. The doubly constrains international trade, as a strong dollar already makes it more difficult for people seeking to import US goods internationally, because their currency conversion rate isn't very favorable, while making it easier for Americans to import other countries goods due to our stronger dollar. Further more, when dollars are hard to get, countries are unwilling to give them to other countries, and other countries only want dollars in exchange for their goods. Vicious cycle. Why does any of this matter to your trading right now? The Bears that keep dying off are the ones that keep trying to find food in the middle of Winter. There isn't any food, you have to wait for spring. The QE process supports local AND international markets, and with the strong demand for the dollar world-wide right now, it won't inflate at nearly the rate you expect, until it just plain crashes. OK, so what causes it to crash? Well, QE works by selling our debt (bonds) to other countries (or large institutions) to generate liquidity, and using said liquidity (formerly for buying various Gov bonds, and since QE began, by buying bonds and other longer term securities from the private sectors) to give to our own country more money to "get the wheels going". The Interest rates on the QE inside the country are going for near 0%-.25% to help spurn the economy, and although the bond market has also has low rates right now (Last Value for a 30 year 5/3/2020: 1.24%), it is still not an equal balance. The USA will owe more to these bond holders than it produces via its loans to the private sector(s). If those other countries stop having revenue to buy our bonds, the process fails to work, because it loses the necessary liquidity. If the Fed attempts to print without getting loans from other countries, thereby "printing" money out of air, the dollar will begin to devalue if enough is printed that worldwide demand for it begins to ease, lowering its demand levels and therefore its price. Why would other countries not have the money to buy our bonds? China: 20% unofficial unemployment rate: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-27/china-brokerage-retracts-estimate-that-real-jobless-level-is-20 (ctrl a + ctrl c before the bloomberg pop-up wall to copy the text and paste to notepad to read for free) India: 27% unemployed: https://www.firstpost.com/business/coronavirus-lockdown-indias-unemployment-rate-soars-to-27-11-for-week-ended-3-may-says-cmie-8334891.html Unemployment rates in Europe expected to "near double": https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-eu-jobs/mckinsey-predicts-near-doubling-of-unemployment-in-europe-idUSKBN2210UZ Simply put, there is gonna be a whole lot of "no fuckin tax money" going around, and a whole lotta people needing money for basics at the same time. This is gonna be a strange thing to dig out when everyone is printing money at the same time. What does this mean to your tendies? Puts are simply not good overall play for the short term, outside of specific target movements (day trades, bad earnings, bankruptcy of an individual company, targeting a specific weak industry). I play straddle variations (and day trade shares) because it plays off of volatility increasing, which is should continue to do, although theta gangs are likely making the best reliable wages of all of us, selling hopes and dreams to dying bears. I'll likely switch to a few upward theta plays this week after my straddles tonight come back . So! This post is already long, lets make it a little longer. If you've been following along, you'll know I don't DD individual companies for you to bet on, but rather the market as a whole: We know chicken, pork, dairy, potato, and onion farming are affected, and in multiple countries. (links in previous threads) We know oil continues to be affected at rock bottom pricing, and oil futures suggest it will stay that way for a while (link in previous threads) We know some types of home-based loans have been affected (HELOCs, and others further defined below). We know unemployment is high, not just here, but world wide, 20%+ in multiple major countries. u/Breezy_t has some great DD regarding the mortgages starting to wobble a bit, another one of our expected indicators. I expect to see this really start to move next month as the 3 delay and 4th month approaches with all of those payments suddenly due. While not all lenders did it this way, enough of them did that it should get ugly. If another stimulus is passed, I would expect this to get delayed, but won't guess how long without seeing the stimulus. https://www.reddit.com/wallstreetbets/comments/ge5nnl/us_households_had_record_debt_when_the/ u/Sufficientlee shows us the Beef Industry, last of the major meat players in the USA has started to creak: https://www.reddit.com/wallstreetbets/comments/ge3p01/1_in_5_wendys_out_of_beef/ u/Phosgene1394 brings us DD about confirmation of the 2nd Strain. I've read there are 19 in total so far, but a particular strain being very infectious, this is important because vaccinations against one may not work against others, like the flu: https://www.reddit.com/wallstreetbets/comments/ge9s6m/beer_virus_mutated_spy_350_bois/ As previously mentioned, I reached out to a friend of mine at a major mortgage lender this weekend. She handles VA, FHA, and Conventional loans for home buyers, primarily. We didn't speak about commercial loans. Here is what she gave me: VA loan minimum fico requirements bumped from 620-660. FHA loan minimum fico requirements bumped from 640-660. Conventional loans require minimum 700 fico or automatic bump to FHA loans, which are less favorable. She also mentioned a couple of things I expected would happen, including the non-official delivery of them (no paperwork) She was told to "use discretion" giving out home equity refi's. She was told to "use discretion about companies/industries applicants work for" IE if your job might be affected by CV19, she might deny you based on "nothing". Because this could be seen as discrimination, you can't tell someone you didn't lend to them because they work for a restaurant, but you can tell them the bank simply couldn't qualify them at this time. She also said the financial lending programs are sending out new guidance basically every day, updating and tightening requirements as we get farther into this and the bigger picture comes out. Now, use your own judgement as to whether I'm making all of that up to fit my narrative, it's not something I can exactly source for you, for obvious reasons. Here's what I can tell you about my straddle test plays over-night, which I've decided to back off on for now: 1st) +$124 for (1) straddle contract, but Trump ruined the test by rattling sabers with China 2nd) Would have broke even (+$) If I'd woke up on time, but instead I ate a small loss with an early retrace to strike eating my gains. 3rd - weekend) +$24 for (1) straddle contract due to a parabolic move overnight sunday reversing the down gap with an upward climb. I believe with the general upward trend that even down gaps will reverse like this moving forward until the bankruptcies / failures start to roll in. 4) -$270 Bought (3) straddle contracts on 5/5/2020 at EOD after that crazy downward plunge and some reversal, strike 287, and once again after hours went parabolic, resulting in the worst possible outcome, opening the next day at 287, almost exactly where I bought it. This is a good example, however, that my worst case scenario resulted in a slightly over 12% loss on the purchase, so this was relatively safe. "What should I buy?" Well, SPY is largely biased towards Tech, which is largely less affected by recession. If you're playing SPY, and you want larger returns than a straddle will give, I'd stick with calls, and don't oversize your bets and get eaten by down-gaps. You will lose some overnights, but you should win more than you lose. You could hedge an OTM Put for some cheap safety for a wide strangle if you're so inclined. I would generally try and use a strike close to a low-volatility low if it bounces down in the mid day, especially if you end up close enough to a high volume strike during the mid-day IV reduction. If you look back, 3/4 of the last gaps were down, but 7/10 of the last gaps were ups. Most importantly, as those last 3 gaps were in a row, they might simply be the 'pull back' of the previous 6 ups. These are the industries I would bet against right now, if I weren't in SPY: -Anything that sells: chicken pork, beef, dairy, potato, and onion as a primary source of revenue. -Anything that is involved in the oil-supply chain, except maybe oil storage, we'll see if OPEC + friends's production reductions (9.7 million barrels per day) are enough to keep these from sky-rocketing. These stocks seem super unstable as their value is artificially super high for the short term until oil is under control again. Note that in the energy markets, non-oil power production has done fairly well. -Mortgage lenders and PMI Companies starting next month. Note, these won't fall right away, so set your dates accordingly. -Car manufacturers, these suffered terribly in 2007/8/9 and eventually had to be bailed out. The same thing is likely to happen again. I'm tightening my expectations of daily movement from 1.5-2.5% up and 1.5% down, to .5-1.25% up, and .5-1.75% down , still not including any overnight gaps. Notably, these gaps have been following trend a bit more often lately. We'll also likely see more 'stall' days (-.5% to +.5%) as we seem to be in a low volume 'plateau' of sorts. If you day trade / scalp, its dicey out there so take your profits a bit early, if your runs start to waver pull out and re-enter if necessary, the downs are spiking hard this last week, and can reset an hour+ of gains in a single 1 minute bar. Don't bet on the next "down" just yet, QE is a strong delay method but it doesn't plant crops. Fundamentals are most likely to win this fight in a big way, but you can't hurry them. QE is like building a 10 foot sandbag wall to stop a tsunami that you're expecting to arrive any day. My positions currently? Cash only day trading again until I have time to figure out my preferred theta plays, although some solar energy earnings are coming in next week and renewables have done very well so far, so I may dip my toe for a few calls there. If you can handle the waves, there is great scalping right now. TL:DR: QE will keep destroying your puts because people don't know how QE works. Play shorts only with great DD, and safer play is avoid shorting tech all together. Short companies according to fundamentals, and be more confident (and riskier) in short term calls. Stop losses are getting chopped through and flash crashed, so try to stick to with-trend plays, not counter-trend. Calls > puts rights now. Good luck autists, +15% tendies for everyone. edited for slightly less shitty formatting.
Last week I detailed how I expect the Dolphins to easily clear $100 million in spendable salary cap space heading into free agency, even after considering the monumental effective cap cost of our rookie pool for the draft. This week, I’m going to examine free agency options at the positions addressed and who I expect our major targets to be. Unlike last year, I’m not going to focus very much on our own impending free agents this time around. I addressed the very few free agents I expect to return this year in last week’s segment, so this piece will be almost exclusively focused on free agent targets across positions of need. Additionally, because we are still so far out from the draft and because I expect we will try to address as many holes as possible first through free agency so that we’re not pidgeon-holed into selecting specific positions in the draft, I’m not going to dive too far into the draft except in a few circumstances. For those who haven’t been keeping up with the series and would like to catch up, see the links below:
Like we covered last week, our needs on offensive should be readily apparent to anyone even remotely following the Dolphins. Ignore the talking heads who bafflingly keep trying to speak the Dolphins drafting a wide receiver in the first round into existence. That won’t happen barring some stunning fall like how Laremy Tunsil fell into our laps a few years ago. The Dolphins badly need to find a quarterback of the future, an offensive line to protect him, and a running back to share the load with him. That’s not necessarily the order I see those positions being prioritized in free agency, though. As mentioned in replies to last week’s post, I expect that our free agency efforts will be heavily focused on building in the trenches on both sides of the ball. Before I get into free agents I expect that our front office tries to prioritize, I’ll go through free agents, position by position. All rankings are from PFF, which, while not perfect, tend to be pretty accurate in the aggregate over a season.
Quarterback
2020 is shaping up to be a very strange year at quarterback. There’s a lot of big names potentially available here, and that’s going to cause talking heads to have a lot of controversial and “bold” takes, such as all the suggestions we’ve seen that Tom Brady will come to Miami. It’s not going to happen. There’s very little reason to believe that we make any free agency moves at the quarterback position. Ryan Fitzpatrick is under contract for $8 million in 2020 and we only save $4 million by cutting him. However, as discussed, the signing of Chan Gailey as our offensive coordinator makes a commitment to Fitzpatrick abundantly clear. We also save no money by cutting Josh Rosen since, as a former first-round selection, his base salary is entirely guaranteed. I expect that we’ll add a third quarterback to the team in the draft, but I don’t see us being remotely active at the position in free agency. Make no mistake, though. The quarterback landscape across the NFL looks to be very different in 2020. Free agents include Drew Brees, Tom Brady, Eli Manning, Philip Rivers, Case Keenum, Teddy Bridgewater, Ryan Tannehill, Jameis Winston, and Marcus Mariota. Every single one of those players started multiple games for their current teams in 2019. Brees likely returns to New Orleans, Tannehill will almost certainly be tagged, and Winston may as well. I’d have to bet that Brady returns to the Patriots, especially now that they’re retaining McDaniels as offensive coordinator, but it’s unclear how that shakes out. Eli Manning probably retires unless a team stuns the world to give him the starting job somewhere. That still leaves Rivers, Keenum, Bridgewater, and Mariota up in the air, and that’s before potential cuts or trades for guys like Cam Newton and Derek Carr who could shake up the market further. The biggest way that free agency at quarterback impacts the Dolphins is how it informs the decisions of other teams in the draft. Of particular concern are the Chargers (6), Panthers (7), Jaguars (9), Raiders (12, 19), and Colts (13). The Chargers, Panthers, and Raiders are in the best position to have the draft capital to leap the Dolphins. The Raiders can cut or trade Derek Carr and save $16.5 million in 2020. In a trade, Carr would be on a three-year deal at $19 million, $19,625,000, and $19,777,519 over the next three years. That said, I’m not sure that the Raiders actually move on from Carr. Last year he had a career high 70.4% completion percentage, 21 touchdowns, 8 interceptions, a passer rating of 100.8, and an ANY/A of 7.25. Those are respectable numbers, and rather than using multiple mid-firsts to trade up to the top of the draft, I have to imagine Gruden likes his chances to use their two firsts and three thirds and $50 million in cap space to retool their roster rather than commit to starting over with a rookie quarterback in his third year as head coach. With a ten year contract, though, he has more security than most to make a dramatic move now. The Panthers are almost certain to move on from Cam Newton in 2020 under their new head coach Matt Rhule. Reports are that they want to trade Newton, who would carry a $19.1 million cap charge for another team in 2020 and save the Panthers just as much. I don’t expect that the trade market for Newton will be robust. He’s in a very similar position to Joe Flacco last year, who only earned the Ravens a fourth, which doesn’t give the Panthers much more immediate ammunition to move up for a quarterback. With a new head coach and the departure of Luke Kuechly, the Panthers may see themselves in a true rebuild and instead look ahead to 2021 for their quarterback of the future rather than mortgaging firsts over multiple years to try to get their quarterback now. There’s a very good chance that they’re in the same position we were this time last year with Ryan Tannehill and a new head coach coming in. That leaves the Chargers, who almost certainly aren’t looking to bring back Philip Rivers. As the clear second team in a market that’s already proven fickle on football teams not named the Raiders, it’s possible that the Chargers might view the 2020 draft as an opportunity to make a splash by drafting their quarterback of the future. Or they could be one of the teams trying to make a splash by grabbing one of the bigger names in free agency. Our best hope is that they like a guy like Herbert or Love that they think they can get by standing pat if nobody else is moving up. We won’t be the only team that the Lions or the Giants call if they’re fielding an offer to move up and they think they can get a higher bidder. What’s really important, though, is that with five first round picks and four seconds in the next two drafts, nobody is in a position to outbid the Miami Dolphins to move up in the draft in April. As Grier signalled loudly on Thursday, the Dolphins have “more than enough” draft capital to trade up in the draft. In a season sure to be full of vacuous statements, smokescreens, and misdirection, that statement might be the most honest thing we hear out of Grier’s mouth regarding the draft for the next couple months. It’s a signal loud and clear to teams looking to trade up that we can outbid them, and an invitation to teams fielding offers to keep us in the loop. That might cause teams ahead of us to try and bluff to get us to move up ahead of another team “trying to move up”, but if we believe it’s credible and want to beat the bid, there’s little doubt that we can.
Offensive Line
I’ll take a brief step back for a moment to remind everyone that I do not consider myself a great evaluator of talent and rely heavily on others who do this kind of stuff for a living. I know it can be a controversial metric, but one source I’ve always relied on for these posts is Pro Football Focus’s premium stats. Their grades are far from perfect, but it’s some of the best cumulative data available, and I find that while they’ve occasionally got some outliers, their grades usually align with the general consensus. Moreover, their advanced stats are some of their better material. Unfortunately, there’s not a whole lot on offer in that regard for offensive linemen. I believe what follows generally follows the eye test. I’m not going to come out here swinging with data that should really surprise anyone, and I’m not going to try to use PFF’s gradings to try to advocate for fringe players who are undervalued. I’m not trying to beat the system with this analysis. This brings us to the first position group where I expect we will be active in 2020 free agency. Offensive line talent is at a premium right now, and as noted previously we have PFF and Football Outsider’s worst-ranked offensive line in the game. After letting Ja’Wuan James walk in free agency last year and trading Laremy Tunsil to the Texans, there’s a lot of pressure to rebuild this position group from a bunch of nobodies. Rookies Michael Deiter and Shaq Calhoun are the only two players on the line who played any amount of time, and both underwhelmed.
Deiter and Calhoun
Player
Offensive
Pass Blocking
Run Blocking
Total Snaps
Pass Snaps
Run Snaps
Sacks
Hits
Hurries
Pressures
Penalties
PBE
Deiter
42.5
37.8
45.5
996
708
287
6
15
23
44
5(1)
96.2
Calhoun
44.2
44.0
43.9
471
332
139
2
3
13
18
2(1)
96.8
For those of you unfamiliar with PFF’s grading system, plays are graded on a scale of +2 to -2 and then the cumulative scores are normalized to a score of 100 where 100 is the best score ever recorded for the position. Because they normalize the scores that way, that doesn’t mean that 50 is average and both Deiter and Calhoun were just above average. In fact, the median overall offensive grade among guards in 2019 was 59.6. Right about now, you should be getting the sense that neither Deiter nor Calhoun were particularly good last year. Let’s hit the rapid fire on just how not good these guys were. In pass blocking, Deiter’s grade ranks 114th of 123 guards. Calhoun’s is 108th. Deiter’s Pass Blocking Efficiency (PBE), which is a score normalized to 100 of pressures allowed as a percentage of total pass blocking snaps with a weighting toward sacks, was tied for 92nd among 118 qualifying guards. Calhoun’s was tied for 76th. Deiter’s penalties were tied for 97th worst. Calhoun’s better here, but he also played half as many snaps and was on pace to be in a similar place as penalties as Calhoun. It doesn’t stop there, either! Deiter was PFF’s 115th ranked guard in run blocking; Calhoun was 117th. That’s not to say that we should give up on either of them developing or playing better with better pieces around them, but we should not be complacent pursuing opportunities to upgrade over either of them.
Davenport, Webb, and Davis
If our guards were bad, our tackles weren’t much better. Julie’n Davenport, Jesse Davis, and J’Marcus Webb all played significant snaps for us at tackle throughout the season, and they were all pretty bad.
Player
Offensive
Pass Blocking
Run Blocking
Total Snaps
Pass Snaps
Run Snaps
Sacks
Hits
Hurries
Pressures
Penalties
PBE
J’Marcus Webb
34.4
32.0
37.1
543
372
171
7
6
26
39
8(3)
93.4
Julie’n Davenport
56.5
61.5
41.3
534
389
145
6
9
16
31
1(0)
94.9
Jesse Davis
58.9
59.6
53.6
975
696
279
4
5
33
42
4(1)
96.5
J’Marcus Webb is PFF’s worst tackle out of 120 total tackles, 117th in pass blocking, and 118th in run blocking. Davenport was 93rd overall, 82nd in pass blocking, and 114th in run blocking. Davis was 85th overall, 87th in pass blocking, and 91st in run blocking. In terms of pass blocking efficiency, Webb was 110th of 118, Davenport was 90th, and Jesse Davis was the only one in the bunch in the top half of tackles (barely) tied for 57th. You might have wondered why we didn’t try to maximize our running backs out in space and instead constantly rushed up the middle for small gains? Having tackles who were hot garbage blocking was certainly a big part of it.
Kilgore
Only center was acceptable through the season. Kilgore’s performance through thirteen games ranked him at 15th (of 49) in pass protection allowing three sacks, four hits, and 12 pressures with a pass-blocking efficiency good for tied for 23rd of 48 qualify centers. Even that’s not all that great, and given that none of his contract is guaranteed and he’s a free agent in 2021, if an upgrade was available we might pursue it. That said, given the dire need at guard and tackle, I imagine we keep Kilgore for another year. I go over all of this now to make abundantly clear how dismal our offensive line is right now. Webb and Davenport are free agents who won’t be making a return. Davis, Kilgore, Deiter, and Calhoun are all under contract, but if more than two of them are still starting for the Dolphins in 2020, that will be a colossal failure by the front office. Between free agency and the draft, we should be looking to add a minimum of three offensive linemen. Fortunately, we have the cap space and the draft capital to make this a reality.
Tackles
There are a handful of tackles available in free agency who would be an immediate upgrade for the Dolphins, although I’ll admit that’s a pretty low bar. Given that the draft is looking pretty top-heavy in offensive tackle talent in particular (depending on who you ask, there’s at least four tackles projected to go in the first round and another two or three who could be anywhere from late firsts to seconds), I expect we’ll only target one tackle in free agency. We’ve got some options. For each of these guys, I’ll discuss how they finished relative to their peers in 2019 and then include (where available) PFF grades for the last three seasons. Bryan Bulaga (RT) While older than maybe we’d initially want--he’ll be 31 by the time we can sign him--Bulaga is still one of the best right tackles in the game. He finished just behind Jack Conklin seventh among all tackles in run blocking in 2019, and performed better in pass blocking, grading at 41st overall with a pass blocking efficiency score good for 32nd in the league. Bulaga allowed four sacks, four hits, and nineteen hurries on 612 pass blocking snaps.
Year
Offensive
Pass Blocking
Run Blocking
Total Snaps
Pass Snaps
Run Snaps
Sacks
Hits
Hurries
Pressures
Penalties
PBE
2019
77.1
73.3
79.4
959
612
347
4
4
19
27
7(1)
97.2
2018
75.0
84.0
59.3
781
559
222
5
3
14
22
8(0)
97.4
2017
61.4
72.0
49.0
232
155
77
1
1
10
12
1(0)
95.5
Aside from age, another major knock on Bulaga will be his penalties. Unfortunately Bulaga’s 2017 season is the outlier across his career, as it’s the only time he’s had fewer than five penalties in a season. The final knock against Bulaga is his injury history. 2019 was the first season since 2016 in which Bulaga had played in all sixteen games. The Packers aren’t flush with cap space and have several other free agents contributing significant snaps to the team who need replaced which might leave Bulaga hitting the market. Offensive linemen often have long careers well into their 30s, and Bulaga on a 3-4 year deal might be reasonable. He’s likely not our first choice, but for the past six seasons while healthy, Bulaga has consistently been one of the best pass blocking tackles in the game and would be a massive improvement for us on that front. Jack Conklin (RT) At 26, he’s one of the youngest tackles expected to hit the market this season. He’s also one of the surest bets not to be re-signed. Although he’s stated that he’d “love” to re-sign with the Titans, with both Ryan Tannehill and Derrick Henry as unrestricted free agents, the Titans are in a tough spot to keep together the team that took them from the wildcard round to the AFC Championship. Tannehill is likely to receive the franchise tag projected at a whopping $26,895,000 and Henry could receive the transition tag at $10,189,000. That alone accounts for more than half of all of the Titans’ cap space with Conklin, Logan Ryan and Termaine Brock all unrestricted free agents with over 60% of total snaps played this past season. Conklin allowed five sacks, four hits, and 24 pressures on 617 pass-blocking snaps with the Titans this season. His pass blocking grade was 45th among tackles (T51st in pass blocking efficiency), but his run blocking grade was sixth.
Year
Offensive
Pass Blocking
Run Blocking
Total Snaps
Pass Snaps
Run Snaps
Sacks
Hits
Hurries
Pressures
Penalties
PBE
2019
80.6
74.0
83.7
1108
617
491
5
4
24
33
9(1)
96.6
2018
66.8
69.2
66.2
498
317
181
4
1
14
19
7(3)
96.1
2017
72.4
73.8
69.0
1099
632
467
2
8
21
31
8(2)
97.4
Despite his age, Conklin’s performance has been consistent across his young career despite an injury-shorted season in 2018. Demand at the position, Conklin’s age, and his consistency aside from the short year last season is going to drive his price up, although likely not quite to the gaudy APY number that Lane Johnson signed this November (more on that later). D.J. Humphries (LT) Humphries checks a lot of boxes as the type of guy the Dolphins might target. He’s 27-years old and can be a long-term solution at left tackle where he’s played 2,694 snaps the past four seasons. Following a season-ending knee injury in 2018, he put up a solid season in pass protection in 2019, allowing only two sacks, one hit, and 27 hurries. His pass blocking efficiency was tied for 27th among all tackles. He was poor in run blocking (94th out of 120), but has performed much better in previous years.
Year
Offensive
Pass Blocking
Run Blocking
Total Snaps
Pass Snaps
Run Snaps
Sacks
Hits
Hurries
Pressures
Penalties
PBE
2019
1046
677
369
64.5
76.3
52.3
2
1
27
30
13(1)
97.5
2018
522
342
180
68.8
62.9
72.2
4
8
16
28
2(0)
95.0
2017
204
104
100
81.7
66.0
86.1
0
0
5
5
0(0)
97.4
Humphries has been a mixed mag throughout his career with injuries and up-and-down performance that has rarely turned toward downright awful--although 14 penalties in 2019 is pretty nuts. But that’s exactly why he might be the kind of guy the Dolphins take a look at if the Cardinals decide to replace Humphries through the draft. He won’t break the bank, and if we strike out on better options in free agency, he could be a cost-effective solution that’s still a major upgrade over any of our current tackles. His worst pass blocking grade of his career (61.8 his rookie season) is still better than any of our tackles this past season, and his worst run blocking grade of his career (52.3 in 2019) is barely worse than our best (Jesse Davis). Greg Robinson (LT) Likely a cheaper option, if he hits the market. This former second overall selection in the 2014 draft has had a pretty average career, but posted career-high grades last year in Cleveland. Last year, he allowed four sacks, five hits, and seventeen hurries on 535 pass blocking snaps. His pass blocking efficiency ranked him 42nd among all tackles and his overall pass blocking grade was 56th. He's marginally better in run blocking, ranking 49th among all tackles. He’s also 28-years-old.
Year
Offensive
Pass Blocking
Run Blocking
Total Snaps
Pass Snaps
Run Snaps
Sacks
Hits
Hurries
Pressures
Penalties
PBE
2019
66.9
69.3
62.8
860
535
325
4
5
17
26
11(2)
96.9
2018
59.6
68.8
52.1
498
311
187
1
0
19
20
10(3)
96.3
2017
54.6
53.4
53.2
395
257
138
3
3
18
24
5(3)
94.4
That Robinson managed to rack up 13 penalties in 2018 while only playing half a season’s worth of snaps is downright impressive. Aside from him being the living definition of mediocrity on the offensive line, his penchant for penalties is the biggest knock on Robinson. But he’ll likely be even cheaper than Humphries. If we strike out on other free agents, or only want a short-term stop gap (Robinson has played for three teams in the past four seasons already), Robinson is an option and his most recent season would still be an improvement over our current tackles. I can see a scenario where we either whiff on guys like Bulaga and Conklin or spend more on the offensive interior and instead pursue a guy like Robinson as a stopgap for the 2020 season so that we only need to draft a single tackle in 2020 and can instead punt until 2021 with one of our two first round selections then to find the bookend at the other side of the line. Halapoulivaati Vaitai (RT) Vaitai saw about 40% of the Eagles total snaps this season at right tackle, and while he was far from a stud in pass protection (45th overall and 72nd in pass blocking efficiency), he ranked 10th against the run. The Eagles could end up keeping him and starting him at right tackle and moving Lane Johnson over to left tackle to replace Jason Peters, but he might also hit the market in free agency.
Year
Offensive
Pass Blocking
Run Blocking
Total Snaps
Pass Snaps
Run Snaps
Sacks
Hits
Hurries
Pressures
Penalties
PBE
2019
74.4
64.6
76.2
540
331
209
2
8
13
4(0)
95.8
2018
47.7
52.7
38.9
350
224
126
4
4
9
17
2(0)
94.7
2017
59.4
52.3
61.8
1031
600
431
9
14
28
51
6(0)
94.7
There’s risk in pursuing a guy like Vaitai, but he performed very well in his limited performance in 2019. If we’re investing in other positions on the line, we might bet that Vaitai will be able to repeat his 2019 performance with other good linemen around him. If the Eagles let him go, he’s the kind of guy I could see a tackle-needy team like the Dolphins thinks can take a decent stint as a back-up in 2019 and put together a good season as a starter. Given his up-and-down history (not listed above is his rookie season which was pretty similar to 2019), it’s riskier than most moves, but could provide good production at cost.
Guards
As previously established, our guards were bad this season. Our guards have been bad for years. The last time we had a good guard was when Laremy Tunsil played at left guard his rookie year. The last time before that was way back in Tannehill’s rookie season when we had Incognito. Adam Gase infamously dismissed our woes on the interior offensive line by insisting you don’t need to invest in guards, but NFL trends over the past several seasons have run counter to that logic. Despite trotting out woeful ineptitude at the position for the past seven years, we’ve only drafted three guards in all that time: Jamil Douglas in the fourth, Isaac Asiata in the fifth, and Michael Deiter in the third. It’s time the Dolphins get serious about addressing the offensive interior, but this draft isn’t exactly stacked at guard (or the offensive interior line) the way it looks like it is at tackle. Fortunately, there are a handful of options who may be available in free agency. Ereck Flowers (LG) Flowers is young (only 26) and coming off of a decent season in Washington. He’s not the big prize available in free agency from Washington’s offensive line, but he’s still a significant upgrade over anyone we’re rostering right now.
Year
Offensive
Pass Blocking
Run Blocking
Total Snaps
Pass Snaps
Run Snaps
Sacks
Hits
Hurries
Pressures
Penalties
PBE
2019
64.2
69.0
60.1
937
588
349
2
2
20
24
6(1)
97.6
2018
65.1
62.0
63.4
588
353
235
3
7
28
38
6(2)
93.8
2017
66.8
70.4
52.8
1001
653
348
6
8
27
41
9(3)
96.2
His pass blocking efficiency was good for 43rd. In 545 pass blocking snaps he allowed two sacks, two hits, and twenty hurries. He played his first four season primarily at left tackle, and he seems to have weathered the switch to left guard in Washington well. He’s far from a world-beater, but he’s competent and is another guy who won’t break the bank. His previous experience at tackle is also always useful in the event that injuries require he shift over. Graham Glasgow (RG) Speaking of players for whom a move to guard was agreeable, Graham Glasgow moved from center to right guard this year and did a pretty great job of it. He allowed zero sacks, five hits, and 20 hurries on 559 pass blocking snaps and put up a career-high 74.2 grade in run blocking.
Year
Offensive
Pass Blocking
Run Blocking
Total Snaps
Pass Snaps
Run Snaps
Sacks
Hits
Hurries
Pressures
Penalties
PBE
2019
74.1
69.0
74.2
872
559
313
0
5
20
3(0)
97.6
2018
70.1
73.8
69.1
1076
673
403
1
5
15
21
9(6)
98.2
2017
71.1
71.8
67.0
1042
681
361
3
6
17
26
4(0)
97.7
Glasgow was already pretty solid as a center in 2017 and 2018, and he made the transition to guard pretty well. At 28-years-old, he could be a solid contributor who has the ability to play both guard and center, and that kind of flexibility has value, as noted with Flowers. It becomes even more valuable considering the time that Kilgore has missed over the past two seasons. Andrus Peat (LG) A couple of years ago, Peat was looking like a stud young guard, but he’s posted back-to-back horrendous seasons in 2018 and an injury-shortened 2019.
Year
Offensive
Pass Blocking
Run Blocking
Total Snaps
Pass Snaps
Run Snaps
Sacks
Hits
Hurries
Pressures
Penalties
PBE
2019
48.7
56.5
47.0
628
388
240
3
3
13
19
3(0)
97.1
2018
39.8
47.3
40.4
879
494
385
3
4
17
24
8(0)
97.3
2017
68.3
66.4
63.7
932
524
408
4
6
18
28
6(1)
96.7
I mostly bring Peat up because his name is one that’s certain to come up in free agency discussions, and someone’s going to look at his first three seasons in the league and think he can return to that performance. He’s risky, but his recent performance is likely to affect his price, and he’s young so there’s upside there for him to turn it around and be a long-term piece on the line. Brandon Scherff (RG) Of the two guards out of Washington, Scherff, age 29, is obviously the bigger catch. He’s missed time due to injury and had a lot of penalties (9) this season, but when he was on the field he was still great, ranking as PFF’s seventh overall guard and allowing only 10 total pressures (one sack, nine hurries) in 394 pass blocking snaps. Moreover, Sherff has been stellar for years.
Year
Offensive
Pass Blocking
Run Blocking
Total Snaps
Pass Snaps
Run Snaps
Sacks
Hits
Hurries
Pressures
Penalties
PBE
2019
75.0
72.0
76.3
643
394
249
1
0
9
10
9(1)
98.5
2018
70.8
84.0
62.3
506
301
205
1
1
7
9
2(0)
98.2
2017
79.9
72.3
79.3
867
524
343
3
4
15
22
2(1)
97.5
It may be worrisome to some that Scherff has ended the past two seasons on injured reserve (2018 for a pectoral tear and 2019 for shoulder and elbow injuries), but if the medicals look good, his performance on the field is good enough to justify the added risk, and he’d be a major get in free agency at a position of need. Michael Schofield (RG) Schofield’s a good pass blocking guard but won’t offer much of an improvement in the way of run blocking if his 2019 performance is anything to go on. He finished 17th in pass protection (allowing one sack, seven hits, and 18 hurries in 688 pass blocking snaps) but 97th in run blocking. He’s a cheaper option we may look to if we strike out on the premier names in this free agency class. At 30, he’s on the older end of players on this list as well.
Year
Offensive
Pass Blocking
Run Blocking
Total Snaps
Pass Snaps
Run Snaps
Sacks
Hits
Hurries
Pressures
Penalties
PBE
2019
63.6
76.9
50.3
1057
688
369
1
7
18
26
1(0)
97.9
2018
62.7
71.7
53.1
1116
680
436
5
5
21
31
0(0)
97.2
2017
57.0
48.1
63.1
407
230
177
2
5
18
25
2(0)
93.6
He’s been pretty consistently that same guy the past two years with the Chargers at right guard: a good pass blocker, but a poor run blocker. He played almost all of his snaps as a back-up RT tackle in 2017 with the Chargers and fared much more poorly than he did at the same position with Denver in his rookie season. Joe Thuney (LG) The clear prize at guard in free agency. Especially if the Patriots bring back Tom Brady, it’s going to be hard for them to afford to bring back Thuney as well. The 2019 All Pro guard figures to see a big pay day, and we should be the ones to give it to him. Thuney was absolutely stellar in pass protection last year, allowing only 17 total pressures (one sack, four hits, and twelve hurries) on 732 pass blocking snaps. His run blocking brought him down, but he finished as PFF’s sixth-ranked guard regardless. Did I mention that in 1,201 snaps he had no penalties on top of everything else? That’s crazy.
Year
Offensive
Pass Blocking
Run Blocking
Total Snaps
Pass Snaps
Run Snaps
Sacks
Hits
Hurries
Pressures
Penalties
PBE
2019
79.2
88.0
68.7
1201
732
469
1
4
12
17
0(0)
98.7
2018
75.5
85.3
68.0
1371
765
606
0
5
21
26
5(0)
98.1
2017
74.4
74.9
68.8
1354
835
519
5
10
31
46
3(0)
96.7
He’ll be sure to break the bank and may even reset the market at the position, but we badly need an infusion of talent on the interior offensive line, and Thuney’s a guy who can absolutely give it to us. He’s 28-years-old and can be a staple of our offensive unit for our quarterback of the future for years to come. Thuney is the kind of guard you throw money at, and if he does reset the market, he’ll have earned it. Greg Van Roten (LG) Also one of the older guys on the list, Van Roten is similar to Schofield in that he offers solid pass blocking (24th among guards with one sack, three hits, and 13 hurries) with poor run blocking (63rd among guards).
Year
Offensive
Pass Blocking
Run Blocking
Total Snaps
Pass Snaps
Run Snaps
Sacks
Hits
Hurries
Pressures
Penalties
PBE
2019
65.6
74.3
57.3
704
446
258
1
3
13
17
2(1)
97.9
2018
59.8
68.8
53.6
1059
668
391
2
2
32
36
2(0)
97.0
2017
62.9
29.4
65.5
10
3
7
0
0
0
0
0(0)
100.0
Having only played ten snaps in 2017 (one at tight end and nine at center), you might as well disregard that season. Before that, he was in and out of the NFL and the Canadian Football League. He was the only offensive player to play all of the Panthers’ offensive snaps in 2018. In 2019 he dislocated his toe in week 12 and was placed on IR. He’s another, cheaper option we might consider if we whiff on bigger names.
Center
As mentioned earlier, I don’t think that center is a position we actively pursue, but given that Kilgore’s contract has no guarantees, if an upgrade is available it’s a possibility. Even if we wanted to address the center position in free agency, however, there’s not a major upgrade to be had, at least not someone who’s young enough to be a long-term contributor and to justify moving on from Kilgore. Connor McGovern As far as immediate upgrades go, McGovern comes to mind. McGovern had a career year in his contract year, allowing only one sack, three hits, and 11 hurries in 609 pass-blocking snaps and scored PFF’s fifth highest pass blocking grade for centers.
Year
Offensive
Pass Blocking
Run Blocking
Total Snaps
Pass Snaps
Run Snaps
Sacks
Hits
Hurries
Pressures
Penalties
PBE
2019
71.9
82.5
64.0
1013
609
404
1
3
11
15
0(0)
98.6
2018
58.3
38.7
66.2
1056
667
389
2
5
36
43
6(0)
96.4
2017
49.2
58.8
49.5
418
247
171
1
3
12
16
3(0)
96.3
He’s been considerably less consistent the rest of his career, however, allowing two sacks, five hits, and a whopping 36 hurries on 667 pass-blocking snaps in his first full year starting in 2018, earning a dismal 38.7 pass blocking grade that season. He was a competent run blocker in both seasons. It’s also worth noting that more than half of his snaps came at right guard in 2018 and almost all his snaps came at right guard in 2017. McGovern looks like another player for whom the position change has yielded positive results. If he can keep up his play from 2019, he’d be an improvement over Kilgore. That’s a big if, though. At 27 he’s far more a long-term solution to the position than Kilgore who is five years his senior. I’m far more gun shy about rewarding a player for a single year of elevated performance than injuries, however, and I’m not sure I’d pull the trigger here.
Running Back
Running back is not a position with much of a shelf life, and outside of a few top backs in the league, rushing production is perhaps the most replaceable production on the field. Many fans bemoan the backs we’ve let leave in recent years, but history has largely vindicated the Dolphins’s reluctance to commit to backs beyond rookie deals. The Texans surely regret paying Lamar Miller so much. Jay Ajayi can’t even find a spot on an NFL roster these days. While Drake has played well in Arizona, it remains to be seen whether he can actually sustain that. Even Damien Williams, who we’re watching be very successful in the playoffs now, only has 750 rushing yards and 350 receiving yards since he left the Dolphins. We haven’t let any world-beaters go. So to say that I’m against spending money on running backs in free agency is an understatement, and frankly this year doesn’t look like a particularly good one to be pursuing anyone either. Has a holdout ever worked out more poorly for a player than it has for Melvin Gordon this year? Do we really want to go out and spend money on a guy like Jordan Howard? The only two running backs I’d really even consider trying to bring in right now might be Austin Ekeler or Gus Edwards, and the former will almost certainly be tendered (and he’s not worth giving up draft picks for) and the latter is an exclusive rights free agent. Both, notably, are also undrafted free agents. While the recent draft has shown that premier running back talent is dominant in the league (the leading rusher in the NFL has been a former first round pick four of the past five years), there’s also plenty of evidence showing that middle-round selections for running back can return big dividends. Sorry guys, I’m not going to dive into rushing stats to demonstrate that like I did for quarterbacks. Maybe next year (but probably not). That’s not to say that we shouldn’t improve at the position. Right now, Patrick Laird is our only running back worth half a damn on the roster, and we definitely need to bring more bodies into the group. We should probably target a running back in the middle rounds of the draft. Maybe the second if someone falls, but in general I’m against investing a lot of draft capital or cap space into the position. It’s also worth noting that in moving to a spread offense under Gailey, rushing is unlikely to be the focal point of our attack. Versatile backs who are useful both as pass blockers and receivers are going to be very important, so a bruiser like Derrick Henry (who I doubt makes it to free agency) doesn’t seem like the type of player we should be targeting.
Tight End
As noted last week, Mike Gesicki stepping up for us in 2019 was a big get, and I expect that his role will increase even more in Gailey’s offense as he was very successful in college in a similar scheme. That said, one of the ways that we can continue to help out our offensive line in both pass blocking and run blocking is to run more sets with multiple tight ends. We brought in a lot of tight ends last off season to try and improve the group, but really only Gesicki has emerged as anything worthwhile. I don’t expect this position to be a major priority, but there’s a couple free agents who might be worth looking at if they become available. Given the much lower likelihood that we’ll actually pursue one of these targets, I won’t go into as much depth as above for the offensive line. These are just some names to keep in mind that might not be completely out of left field. Austin Hooper Hooper’s a threat in the passing game, no doubt. In the past two seasons he’s caught 146 of 180 targets for 1,447 yards and ten touchdowns with only four drops. He has similar flaws to Gesicki, though, as he’s rarely used in pass protection and isn’t the stoutest run blocker (although he’s still an improvement over Gesicki in blocking). He’d be another big-bodied passing threat in what figures to be a passing-heavy offense, though. Hunter Henry Hunter Henry’s a very similar guy to Hooper. In his first two seasons he was much more effective in pass protection and run blocking, but he had a down year in 2019 after missing all of 2018, but he’s another guy who provides a big-bodied receiving threat that provides match-up problems for linebackers. Tyler Eifert He’s starting to get on the older side, but he’s probably the most well-rounded of the tight ends available in free agency. Eifert didn’t get a lot attention in the passing game this season, but he was solid in pass protection and decent in run blocking. He’s probably not a guy we target unless he’s really cheap.
Wide Receiver
We’re not going to sign a wide receiver in free agency. We’re probably not going to draft a wide receiver before the fifth round in April either. DeVante Parker and Preston Williams figure to be our two main targets in 2020, and last week I already discussed that I think we should drop both Jakeem Grant and Albert Wilson while keeping Allen Hurns and bringing back Isaiah Ford. That doesn’t leave much room for additional wide receivers who should expect to see much playing time. I’ll readily admit, though, that it does skew towards a single skill set. Isaiah Ford is the smallest of the bunch listed at 6’2” and 189 pounds. The others are all 6’3” or taller and over 200 pounds. They all posted combine 40 times right around the average for wide receivers (4.48). In that group Hurns figures as our slot receiver (where he played 50% of his snaps last season). The group lacks lateral speed, shiftiness, and speedsters in general, but we’ve had both of those recently (Kenny Stills, Jakeem Grant, Albert Wilson) and except for Stills none of those players ever provided consistent production. Regardless of what the team ultimately decides to do with Wilson and Grant, wide receiver is the last position any of us should expect to invest in this offseason, whether that’s in terms of cap space or draft picks. The only way I see us grabbing a wide receiver is if someone unexpected falls into our laps in April.
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